APRIL 23//GOLD UP ANOTHER $10.00 TO $1724.75//SILVER IS FLAT AT $15.14//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX; ALMOST 96 TONNES.//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE THROUGHOUT THE WORLD//FRENCH BANKS BLOWING UP ON DERIVATIVE TRADES..PROBABLY ALL OF THEM ARE BLOWING UP ON INTEREST RATE DERIVATIVES OR DEBT RELATED ISSUES//THE ENTIRE GLOBE REPORTS ON DISASTROUS PMI NUMBERS///ANOTHER 4.5 MILLION AMERICANS APPLY FOR UNEMPLOYMENT ISSUANCE: TOTAL IN THE LAST 4 WEEKS; 26 MILLION POOR SOULS//PORK SHORTAGES IN THE USA IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS//GM AND FORD TO SUFFER HUGE LOSSES DUE TO FALL IN RESALE CARS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD::$1724.75  UP $10.00   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver$15.14  UP 0 CENTS

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

i)Gold : $1730.50  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $15.24//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

APRIL comex gold price CLOSE 1.30 PM:  $XX

MAY COMEX GOLD:  1732.30 1:30 PM

JUNE GOLD:  $1742.50  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $17.75.//PREMIUMS WENT DOWN AGAIN

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER APRIL COMEX CLOSE: XXX

SILVER MAY COMEX CLOSE;   $15.30-…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE MAY:  16 CENTS  PER OZ//PREMIUMS DOWN AGAIN

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2800. usa per oz

and silver; $31.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO WHAT THE CROOKS ARE DOING AT THE COMEX AND LONDON LBMA..PHYSICAL IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AND NOTHING ELSE

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 58/432

issued: 288

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,728.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/22/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 04/24/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 25
132 C SG AMERICAS 70
159 C ED&F MAN CAP 9
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 9
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 90
661 C JP MORGAN 288 58
685 C RJ OBRIEN 6
686 C INTL FCSTONE 71 20
690 C ABN AMRO 65 123
737 C ADVANTAGE 6 11
800 C MAREX SPEC 2
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 1
905 C ADM 10
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 432 432
MONTH TO DATE: 31,007

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 432 NOTICE(S) FOR 43200 OZ (1.343 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  31,007 NOTICES FOR 3,100,700 OZ  (95.10 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  nil  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 806 for 4,025,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $7099 DOWN  17 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $7528 UP $403

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $10.00: AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

 

GLD: 1,042.46 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

 

ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

 

A  DEPOSIT OF 2.891 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

 

 

 

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 413.665  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE  BY A STRONG SIZED 1933 CONTRACTS FROM 139,607 UP TO 141,540 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH  OUR CONSIDERABLE 42 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO SOME  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A CONSIDERABLE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ALONG WITH OUR ZERO GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING. WE HAD A VERY GOOD NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3001 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 850 AND JULY: 0  AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  850 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 850 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 850 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.250 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 42 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.145  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR APRIL

 

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 42 CENTS).. BUT, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME  SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS, AS WE DID HAVE A GOOD NET GAIN OF 2783 CONTRACTS OR 13.915 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MAY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

15,326 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 15,326 CONTRACTS) OR 76.63 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1021 CONTRACTS OR 5.108 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 76.63 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 10.95% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          970,11 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP SO FAR                   76.63 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE THIS MONTH IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1933, WITH THE CONSIDERABLE 42 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///WEDNESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 850 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2783 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 42 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 850 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG INCREASE OF 1933 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 42 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.14 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.7050 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 100.7% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: NOTICE(S) FOR   nil OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.145 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4023 CONTRACTS TO 497,181 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG COMEX GAIN IN PRICE  OF $40.75 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING , A GOOD INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A GOOD  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH  OUR STRONG GAIN IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD.

WE HAD NO ISSUANCE OF OUR NEW 4 GC CONTRACT

 

WE GAINED A STRONG 7231 CONTRACTS  (22.49 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3208 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 3208.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3208.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 497,181. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7231 CONTRACTS: 4023 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3208 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 7231 CONTRACTS OR 22.49 TONNES. WEDNESDAY, WE HAD HUGE GAIN OF $40.75 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT  GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 22.49 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (ROSE $40.75). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

4 GC ISSUANCE:  ZERO

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD  A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (3208) ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN IN COMEX OI  (4023 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  8263 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A STRONG INCREASE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//WEDNESDAY

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 66,505 CONTRACTS OR 6,650,500 oz OR 206.85 TONNES (15 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 4433 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 206.85 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 206.85/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.82% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTH…THE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2529.75  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

 

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               206.85  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1933 CONTRACTS FROM 139,607 UP TO 141,540 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 850 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 850; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 850 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE STRONG COMEX OI GAIN  OF 1933 CONTRACTS TO THE 850 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 2783 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  13.915 MILLION  OZ!!! WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 42 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 850 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.48 POINTS OR 0.19%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 83,96 POINTS OR 0.35%   /The Nikkei closed UP 291.49 POINTS OR 1.52%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .02%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0813 /Oil UP TO 15.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and 21.85 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0813 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0925 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD 4023 CONTRACTS TO 497,181 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS GOOD COMEX OI GAIN WAS SET WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $40.75 IN GOLD PRICING //WEDNESDAY’S  COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE (3208 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)   ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX WITH THAT HUGE STANDING  APRIL/GOLD…  AS WE ENGINEERED A STRONG GAIN ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 8263 CONTRACTS.

WE AGAIN HAD ZERO 4- GC CONTRACT ISSUANCE

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3208 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0, MAY: 0  JUNE : 3208 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3208 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  7231 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3208 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 4023 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A GOOD AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG COMEX GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY……(SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE BY A HUGE $40.75).  AND, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 22.4903 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 7231 CONTRACTS OR 723,100 OZ OR 22.49 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  497,181 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 49.72 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1546 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1546/2200 OR 70,29% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 195,722 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY209,403 contracts//

APRIL 23

APRIL GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
1150,433.428 oz
BRINKS
MALCA
SCOTIA
INCL 103 KILOBARS
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 53,917.227 oz

Brinks

Manfra

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

311,495.489

OZ

BRINKS

HSBC

MALCA

SCOTIA

INCLUDES 550 KILOBARS

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
432 notice(s)
 43200 OZ
(1.343. TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
114 contracts
(11400 oz)
0.3546 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
31,007 notices
3,100,700 OZ
96.444 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 2 deposits into the dealer

I) Into the dealer Brinks:  32,118.849 oz

II) Into Malca:  21,798.378 oz

 

total dealer deposits: 53,917.227  oz

total dealer withdrawals: NIL oz

we had 4 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Brinks:  96,581.604 oz

 

ii) Into HSBC:: 36,491.383 oz

iii) into Malca:  160,740.000 oz  exact!!!???????

iv) Into Scotia: 17,682.500  (550 kilobars)

 

 

 

 

total deposits:  311,495.489   oz

 

 

we had 3 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks: 182,681.978 oz

ii) Out of Malca 964,440.000 oz  ??????

iii) Out of Scotia:  331.45 oz (103 kilobars)

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 1,150,433.428   oz

We had 2  kilobar transactions  + 2 exact deposit and withdrawal???

 

We had zero  4 KC bar transaction

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 0

 

The front month of APRIL saw its open interest register 546 contracts for a LOSS of 559 contacts. We had 826 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED A VERY STRONG 267 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 26,700 oz will  stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and they also negated a fiat bonus

 

 

May saw its ANOTHER GAIN of 641 contracts to stand at  7187.

June saw a  GAIN OF 1990 contracts UP to 338,973

 

 

We had 432 notices filed today for 43,200 oz

 

FOR THE  APRIL 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 288 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 432 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 58 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (31,007) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  APRIL. (546 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (432 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,112,100 OZ OR 96.799 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (31,007)x 100 oz + (546 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today -(432) x 100 oz which equals 3,112,100 oz standing OR 96.799 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a APRIL. delivery month.

THIS GREATLY SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42. TONES OF GOLD STANDING IN ANY MONTH

We gained 267 contracts OR an additional 26700 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX as these guys decided it best to look for metal on the this side of the pond, first before travelling to London..

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

176,211.457 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

322,144.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.02 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  540,194.208  OZ OR 16.824  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 135.252 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 95.868 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  4,889,291.496 oz or 152.077  tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   176,211.457 oz x ( 5.4807 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  322,144.443 oz (or 10.0200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
total weight of pledged:  540,904.208 oz or 16.824 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 4,348387.3  (135.252 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  4,348387.3 (135.252 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  13,814,426.672 oz (429.688 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   18,703,718.168 oz 581.76 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   138.03 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  443.73 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

April 23/2019

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2151 CONTRACTS FROM 139,607  UP TO 141,758 (AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR STRONG OI COMEX GAIN TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE 42 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING/WEDNESDAY.  THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI (TWO EXCHANGES) OCCURRED WITH 1)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION OCCURRING WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE SILVER GAIN IN PRICE. 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

.APRIL ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 23 CONTRACTS, AND AS SUCH WE LOST 0 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 0 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR 0 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED CONTRACTS AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 2666  DOWN TO 35,527.

JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 11 CONTRACTS RISING TO 147.

 

 

We, today, had  0 notice(s) FILED  for NIL, OZ for the APRIL, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

April 23/2019

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 923,064.175 oz
CNT
Delaware
Int. Delaware
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
304,058.815 oz
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
23 contracts
 115,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  806 contracts

4,035,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into Delaware;  340,058.815 oz

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.04% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/321.170 million

 

total customer deposits today: 304,058.815   oz

we had 4 withdrawals:

i Out of Delaware: 4012.170 oz

ii) Out of Int. Delaware:  4908.485 oz

iii) Out of CNT: 313,804.820 oz

iv) Out of Scotia; 600,338.700 oz

 

 

total withdrawals;  923,064.175   oz

We had 1 adjustments: and all from the dealer to the customer:

i)  from CNT:  297,559.404

 

total dealer silver:  81.137 million

total dealer + customer silver:  316.718 million oz

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2020. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 806 x 5,000 oz = 4,025,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL.(23) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month: 806 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (23)- number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.equals 4,145,000 oz.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT  THE COMEX.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 64,333 CONTRACTS //

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 60,434 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 60,434 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 302 million  OZ  43.16% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -0.84% ((APRIL 22/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.35% to NAV:   (APRIL 22/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.84%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.78 TRADING 15.69///DISCOUNT 0.58

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 23/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $40.75 TODAY:; TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A)A MONSTROUS  3.8 PAPER TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY AND B) ANOTHER HUGE 9.07 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED LATE IN THE DAY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 7.9 PAPER TONNES TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.59 TONNES

APRIL 20//WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES TONNES..THE STRING OF 12 STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSITS ENDS..

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.10 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES/12TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $19.10 TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY; A STRONG 7.89 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1117.59 TONNES.//11TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD UP $23.55 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 15.51 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.70 TONNES//THIS IS THE 10TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT//THIS IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE..THEY HAVE NO PHYSICAL GOLD IN THE TRUST..

APRIL 13//WITH GOLD UP $27.65 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 5.36 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.19 TONNES

APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 2.92 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT..988.63 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $.60//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/;; A STRONG 1.45 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.71 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $.30: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $32.00//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD; A HUGE 7.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT : 978.99 TONNES

APRIL 3//WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 3.22 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.97 TONNES

APRIL 2//WITH GOLD UP $31.80 TODAY: ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 968.75 TONNES

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 TODAY: ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.00 TONNES

MARCH 31//WITH GOLD DOWN $32.70//A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.84 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.38 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONNES

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD  A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

APRIL 23/ GLD INV 1042.46 tonnes*

IN LAST 805 TRADING DAYS:   +96.12 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 705 TRADING DAYS;+271.10  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.891 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.665 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.865 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 410.774 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21//WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER ADDITION OF 1.398 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.639 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.797 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 414.038 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3999 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV TWO HUGE DEPOSITS: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER 5.222 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14./WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF XXX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY;  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.155 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 60 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.84 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 402.381 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 8//WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 401.541 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.766 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 746,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 65 CENTS;  A SMALL CHANGE TODAY..A WITHDRAWAL OF .335 MILLION OZ TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 394.826 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502  MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

 

 

APRIL 23.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

413.665 MILLION OZ.

END

 

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.95/ and libor 6 month duration 0.99

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – 1.96

gold scarce//central banks calling in their leaves

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.61%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.97

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.64

gold scarce//central banks calling in their leases.

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

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The regular price of The Calandra Report is $229 yearly, so this offer is doubly a bargain. To avail yourself of it, visit PayPal here:

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Check out Thom’s personal message below.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Hello Alpha-GATAs. I have supported GATA since the early 2000s. Over the years GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, Secretary/Treasurer Chris Powell, and I have shared ideas, panel appearances, and even a drink or three.

So I’d like you to join The Calandra Report community. It has been going since 2011, and since 1998 from MarketWatch.com, which I co-founded.

Here’s a small biography:

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— Thom Calandra

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0813/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0925   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 5.48 POINTS OR 0.19%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 83.96 POINTS OR 0.35%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 291.49 POINTS OR 1.52%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED  MOSTLY GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 100.53/Euro FALLS TO 1.0778

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.47/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 15.32 and Brent: 21.85

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.42%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.05% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.06%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.47: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.31

3k Gold at $1726.20 silver at: 17.33   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 100/100 in roubles/dollar) 74.91

3m oil into the 15 dollar handle for WTI and 21 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.47 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9751 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0511 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.42%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.62% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.21%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.9514..

Futures Flat Despite Record Eurozone Business Collapse Ahead Of Latest Claims Shocker

US equity futures and global stock markets were surprisingly uneventful on Thursday on the back of a continued modest rebound in oil prices despite a record collapse in European business activity, as investors braced for another staggering jobless claims report as sweeping lockdown measures hammer economic growth.

The S&P500 jumped on Wednesday on a recovery in oil prices and signs Congress was set to pass $500 billion more in relief for small businesses and hospitals. The bill is expected to clear the House of Representatives later in the day. Still, the benchmark index is 17% below its February record high as statewide shutdowns sparked layoffs and crushed consumer spending.Surveys on U.S. manufacturing and services firms are likely to mirror dismal readings from Asia and Europe issued earlier on Thursday. As noted earlier, a composite European business index plunged to its lowest print on record.

Data set to be announced shortly is also likely to show a record 26 million Americans sought unemployment benefits over the last five weeks, confirming that all the jobs created during the longest employment boom in U.S. history were wiped out in about a month.

Retailer Target Corp tumbled 7% in premarket trading despite a surge in digital sales in March and April which offset a slump in-store sales. Eli Lilly gained 1.5% as it reported a jump in first-quarter sales, boosted by its diabetes drug and also benefiting from customers stockpiling its medicines during the pandemic.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index drifted as the abovementioned PMI index plunged far more than economists anticipated. Credit Suisse slipped after the bank said first-quarter profitability rose but that it’s taking a greater than expected $1 billion in writedowns and provisions for bad loans after the pandemic.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, led by materials and energy, after rising in the last session. Most markets in the region were up, with Japan’s Topix Index gaining 1.4% and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index rising 1.2%, while Shanghai Composite dropped 0.2%. The Topix gained 1.4%, with Jeans Mate and Showcase Inc/Japan rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.2%, with Xinjiang Winka Times Department Store and Zhejiang Meilun Elevator posting the biggest slides.

Crude futures jumped for a second day despite a swelling global glut.

Looking ahead, investors will focus on the latest weekly jobless numbers from Washington that are estimated at 4.5 million. While governments across the world have pledged more than $8 trillion to fight the pandemic, a sharper picture of a crippled global economy is emerging from unprecedented layoffs, chaos in the oil market, poor European data and a mixed bag of corporate earnings, as Bloomberg summarizes.

There were some good news on the virus front, where New York fatalities were at the lowest rate since early April, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he anticipates most of the economy will restart by the end of August. House lawmakers on Thursday are set to pass another round of aid. Infections and deaths spiked higher in Spain, home to the world’s most extensive outbreak after the U.S., even amid its sixth week of strict lockdown.

The most important event today is the long-awaited European Council summit via videoconference this afternoon, where the big question will be over how the idea of a European Recovery Fund is financed. Yesterday, Bloomberg News reported that theCommission would propose a €2 trillion plan that would in part use the bloc’s 7-year multi-annual budget with a €300bn recovery fund included, but also establish a new temporary financing mechanism that would raise up to €320bn. However, this could prove controversial given the issuance of joint debt, to which the northern member states are strongly reluctant.

In rates, Treasuries steadied while commodity currencies advanced on a rise in oil prices; Spanish bonds extended an advance, leading peripheral outperformance over euro-area peers; bunds erased declines after French PMIs missed median estimates. Gilts fell then rose after the U.K. DMO announced it will raise in four months of debt sales almost as much as it did during the height of the global financial crisis.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index inched up, erasing losses after coming under pressure from short covering in crosses into the London open. The euro fell after much worse than anticipated German consumer confidence data.  The Norwegian krone shrugged off a plunge in industrial confidence and rose versus all major peers. Australian and New Zealand dollars traded higher against the greenback as the recovery in oil futures sparked short covering among commodity currencies

Looking at the day ahead, and along with the aforementioned European Council meeting, PMIs and initial jobless claims from the US, other data releases include Germany’s GfK consumer confidence reading for May, the UK’s public sector net borrowing for March, along with the US new home sales for March and April’s Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index. From central banks, we’ll hear from the BoE’s Vlieghe, while earnings out today include Intel, Eli Lilly and Company, NextEra Energy and Union Pacific.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,786.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 329.81
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 142.65
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 460.76
  • Nikkei up 1.5% to 19,429.44
  • Topix up 1.4% to 1,425.98
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 23,977.32
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,838.50
  • Sensex up 1.4% to 31,805.19
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.08% to 5,217.11
  • Kospi up 1% to 1,914.73
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to -0.41%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0800
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 7.6 bps to 1.902%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 8.9 bps to 1.048%
  • Brent futures up 7% to $21.80/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,724.11
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 100.44

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Confidence among European businesses and consumers is in free fall as shutdowns to contain the coronavirus push the economy into recession
  • The Federal Reserve’s beefed-up swap program is having some unintended consequences, especially in Europe. It helped bring down the cost of dollars to such an extent they’re cheaper to borrow in cross-currency markets than any major currency. But that’s driving opportunistic players to tap local markets to swap into dollars, which ends up elevating domestic borrowing costs
  • The effect of the U.K.’s emergency spending to combat coranavirus began to show up in public finance data for March, as a jump in spending caused the budget deficit to widen more than expected
  • The U.K. government is to survey 20,000 households in a bid to track the spread of the coronavirus in Britain, five weeks after it abandoned a strategy of community testing for the disease

Asian equity markets mostly benefitted from the more constructive handover from Wall St where sentiment rebounded in tandem with oil prices amid touted bargain buying and increased US-Iran geopolitical risks after US President Trump instructed the US Navy to destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass US ships at sea, with the Senate’s recent passage of the USD 480bln relief bill also adding to the bout of optimism stateside. ASX 200 (-0.1%) advanced at the open but with gains later pared after mixed data releases, as well as weakness in defensives and the largest weighted financials sector. Nikkei 225 (+1.5%) traded higher although upside was restricted by an indecisive currency and following abysmal PMIs in which Manufacturing PMI posted its worst reading since 2009 and both Services and Composite PMIs were at record lows, while the KOSPI (+1.0%) outperformed after it eventually shrugged off the largest contraction for South Korea GDP in more than 11 years. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) were indecisive with price action kept rangebound amid a lack of fresh drivers and continued PBoC liquidity inaction, while Hong Kong policymakers remained focused on defending the currency peg. Finally, 10yr JGBs initially weakened amid the early broad optimism but then recovered from lows as the regional stock indices retraced some of the gains and following stronger results at 2yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • South Korea’s Economy Shrinks Most Since 2008 Amid Pandemic
  • Singapore Traders Say They’re Healthy Amid Hin Leong Saga
  • Operation Twist Returns to Send India’s Bond Yields Plunging

The optimism seen in the APAC session faded as European trade went underway [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%], with the deterioration attributed to a string of dismal April Flash PMIs across the region and as participants look ahead to the Eurogroup summit later today (Primer available on the Newsquawk headline feed). A meeting which could see disagreement over the rollout of the European Recovery Fund – officials touting a launched in 2021; however, Italy stated they cannot wait until June 2020 for approval. European bourses trade mixed with no standout under/outperformers, whilst broader sectors also paint a mixed picture and fail to reflect a clear risk tone – albeit the energy sector outperforms as the complex continues to post gains. The breakdown also sees a similarly mixed picture – again with Oil & Gas leading the gains. A slew of earnings were reported in the pre-market, including prelim figures for Daimler (+0.9%) and Software AG (+0.8%), whilst Renault (+2.3%), Orange (+0.5%), Pernod Ricard (+0.3%), Accor (+1.1%), Swedbank (-0.7%), Volvo (-7.0%) all reported quarterly numbers – with Renault firmer despite a downbeat earnings release on reports Renault CEO is to unveil cost-cutting measures next month, whilst Volvo is pressured after substantially missing on its EPS and adj. operating profit expectations. Moving to Credit Suisse’s (-2.2%) earnings, the group topped net income forecasts but reported a deterioration in revenue and a Q1 loan loss provision over double its expectations. That being said, market volatility saw its FICC and Equity trading and sales both higher in excess of 20% YY. Elsewhere, Wirecard (+8.0%) sees itself at the top of the DAX after an independent audit of the Co. has uncovered no substantial findings with regards to questionable accounting methods; however, the full report is yet to be published. Results from the audit are now expected for April 27th and the Co’s FY results are to be published on April 30th. Finally, Tullow Oil (+30%) opened with gains above 60% and holds its place at the top of the Stoxx 600 after divesting its stake in Uganda to reduce net debt, whilst also seeing tailwinds from favourable price action in oil.

Top European News

  • Europe’s Virus Lockdown Hits Economy, Leaves Businesses Reeling
  • Immofinanz Names Investor Ronny Pecik as New Chief Executive
  • Orban Blinks After Decade Fighting Foreign Sway Over Economy

In FX, the single currency is languishing at the bottom of the G10 table and looking precarious under 1.0800 vs the Dollar not to mention across the board as Eur/crosses teeter over psychological or key technical levels, like Eur/Chf on the verge of 1.0500, Eur/Jpy edging towards 116.00 and even Eur/Gbp testing the 200 DMA (0.8736). Much worse than anticipated preliminary Eurozone PMIs, and particularly poor services sector prints have undermined the Euro, but Eur/Usd is holding in just above or around chart supports ahead of 1.0750 in the form of April 6’s so called reaction low at 1.0769 and a 1.0757 Fib retracement level, for now, with some additional buffers provided by option expiries extending from 1.0800-1.0790 to 1.0750 in 3.1 bn and 1.2 bn respectively.

  • NZD/AUD/JPY/GBP – The Kiwi and Aussie continue to see-saw vs their US counterpart, with the former recovering from a stop-induced slide overnight after 0.5900 held and subsequently retesting resistance ahead of 0.6000, while the latter was able to withstand weak PMIs with the aid of trade data revealing a much wider surplus as exports outpaced imports nearly 3-fold. Aud/Usd has reclaimed 0.6300+ status and briefly extended gains to circa 0.6370 before fading alongside Aud/Nzd ahead of 1.0650. Meanwhile, the Yen continues to retain an underlying safe-haven bid between 108.00 and 107.50 with decent option expiry interest also keeping the pair contained (1 bn at 107.50 and 1.6 bn from 107.85 to 108.00). Elsewhere, Sterling has (somehow) taken bleak UK PMI and CBI surveys in stride and resisting Greenback advances after Cable came close to filling bids touted at 1.2300, though this could be due to the aforementioned Eur/Gbp correction from recent 0.8800+ peaks rather than anything especially or uniquely Pound positive.
  • USD – The Buck may be primed for a fall after the latest US initial claims release and/or Markit PMIs, but for now the DXY is establishing a more assured base on the 100.000 handle and building momentum through 100.500, albeit with indirect traction from the Euro underperformance noted above and more pronounced Franc depreciation below 0.9700 through 0.9750.
  • SCANDI/EM – The Scandi Crowns are back on the front foot as crude prices continue to stabilise and sharp falls in Swedish sentiment indicators are acknowledged, but partially taken in context when compared to the starker deterioration elsewhere in Europe. However, in contrast to crude-related recoveries for EM currencies like the Rouble, COVID-19 contagion has intensified in SA where the Rand is back under 19.0000 vs the Dollar in the run up to President Ramaphosa setting out plans to re-open the economy after rolling out fiscal stimulus representing around 10% of the country’s GDP..

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures trade on a firmer footing as geopolitical risks continue to be priced in following US President Trump’s tweet regarding his order to the US Navy to shoot down all Iranian gunboats that harass US vessels. Aside from that, the underlying fundamentals remain broadly unchanged. The supply glut remains, and storage space remains scarce. “Given the glut we have in the oil market, it is difficult to see this offering lasting support to the market, unless the situation does escalate further” – ING says. Elsewhere and in fitting with recent source reports, Saudi Aramco has started to implement the OPEC+ pact ahead of its inauguration on May 1st. Aramco will be lower output to 8.5mln BPD, the output level mentioned under the terms of the of the deal – markets are yet to see if other producers follow suit, with Kuwait the only other country to publicly announce their early cuts thus far. WTI resides around USD 15.5/bbl having had briefly topped USD 16/bbl in early trade ahead of yesterday’s high of USD 16.18/bbl. Brent futures meanwhile meander just above 22/bbl after printing a current intraday high at USD 23.22/bbl. Elsewhere, spot gold remains relatively steady north of USD 1700/oz thus far and briefly topped 1725/oz. Meanwhile, copper trades on a firmer footing after Anglo American’s copper production showed a YY decline, meanwhile, Antofagasta also stated it expects copper output this year towards the lower end of its guidance.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 4.5m, prior 5.25m; Continuing Claims, est. 16.7m, prior 12m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, prior 46.5;  Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 44.5
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 35, prior 48.5
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 30, prior 39.8
  • 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 40.9
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 644,000, prior 765,000; New Home Sales MoM, est. -15.82%, prior -4.4%
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -37, prior -17

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This working from home routine is good for productivity if not my social skills. My wife won’t get too close to me at the moment as I refuse to shave off a four week old bristly beard. We’ll see who holds out the longest. On the productivity front we published two quick notes yesterday. The first ( link here ) where we rank the severity of this pandemic relative to 24 we’ve found going back over 2000 years and make some observations of where it’ll end up and also some markers for the future. Secondly we published a chart looking at 150 years of oil prices in nominal and real terms ( link here ). This week the price of oil in nominal terms was lower than it was in 1870 and at any point in history. The note shows what inflation and the S&P 500 have done over the same period for comparison. Guess before you look at the answer. At least how many figures the latter runs into in percentage terms. If anyone can think of a financial related asset that still trades today that had a lower price this week than it did 150 years ago then I will give them a virtual prize. Even if you can think of one from 100 or even 50 years ago.

We’ll come back to oil a little later but the most important event today is the long-awaited European Council summit via videoconference this afternoon, where the big question will be over how the idea of a European Recovery Fund is financed. Yesterday, Bloomberg News reported that the Commission would propose a €2 trillion plan that would in part use the bloc’s 7-year multi-annual budget with a €300bn recovery fund included, but also establish a new temporary financing mechanism that would raise up to €320bn. However, this could prove controversial given the issuance of joint debt, to which the northern member states are strongly reluctant.

Frankly, if we saw a full agreement today that would be a surprise but progress and something that Italy can sign up to will be the key. In his blog on Monday, DB’s Mark Wall said that while he expects an eventual agreement on a recovery fund, it would be a positive surprise if the important details were agreed today, since the question of burden sharing is politically complex and the ECB’s purchases are absorbing market pressure for now. Mark says that the things to watch out for are the size, speed and structure of the fund, but he thinks joint bonds are unlikely for obvious reasons due to the Northern states current lack of desire to go down that route. We’ve also seen increasing speculation around grants recently, which could be the principle means of buying solidarity, but that would also lead to tough debates around the ratio of grants to loans within the Recovery Fund and eligibility for the grants. This would fit into the idea that we shouldn’t expect a fully detailed agreement today.

Ahead of that, sovereign debt continued to sell off in Europe yesterday, though it should be noted that Italian BTPs actually outperformed, with yields falling by -7.7bps by the end of the session. Nevertheless, in the rest of southern Europe sovereign bond spreads moved wider, with the spread of Spanish (+6.3bps) debt over bunds reaching its highest level since the aftermath of the Brexit vote back in June 2016. Having said that they did complete a successful syndicated deal which would have led to pressure elsewhere in the curve – similar to Italy on Tuesday. The ECB last night said it would accept some HY bonds as collateral if they were rated IG before April 7th and stay above BB. This clearly looks designed to mainly help Italy if they get downgraded to HY over the coming weeks or months. Next stop is S&P’s review of their BBB rating due to be announced tomorrow. Finishing off on sovereigns, 10yr Treasury yields rose by +5.0bps yesterday, up from their second-lowest closing level ever the previous day to reach 0.619%.

Staying on today, we’ll also get the much-anticipated April flash PMIs this morning. For our readers who thought that the March readings were dire, today’s numbers are likely to show an even bigger deterioration. That’s because when the surveys were taken back in March, plenty of economies hadn’t actually fully locked down yet, or only did so towards the latter part of the survey. The one country that was in a full lockdown for the March survey was Italy, where the services PMI fell to 17.4, which gives you some idea of how low these could go today. Given that these are diffusion indices they lose some meaning in extreme events as they don’t give a scale of the severity of declines (and rebounds when they occur) just whether things were worse or better than the prior month for the various respondents.

We’ve already had a taste for how the PMIs look in Asia overnight where Japan’s flash services PMI slid to 22.8 (vs. 33.8 last month), a record low, while the manufacturing PMI printed at 43.7 (vs. 44.8 last month). The accompanying text highlighted that “PMI data for Japan tells us that the crippling economic impact from the global coronavirus pandemic intensified in April,” and “the decline in combined output across both manufacturing and services was the strongest ever recorded by the survey in almost 13 years of data collection.” Meanwhile, Australia’s services PMI also printed at a record low of 19.6 (vs. 38.5 last month) while the manufacturing reading came in at 45.6 (vs. 49.7 last month).

In other overnight news, Bloomberg is reporting that Germany’s government has agreed on an additional EUR 10bn stimulus package that would temporarily reduce value added taxes for restaurants and increase the amount of money paid as state wage support as part of a seven-point plan to fine-tune the government’s economic crisis response. Elsewhere, Singapore’s trade and industry minister Chan Chun Sing said that the country is bracing for a sharper economic contraction this year than an earlier forecast of as much as a -4% slump. We also got South Korea’s Q1 2020 GDP print this morning which printed at -1.4% qoq (vs. -1.5% qoq expected), the worst contraction since the GFC. Elsewhere, the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that he expects most of the US economy will restart by the end of August.

Asian markets are trading mixed this morning with the Nikkei (+0.74%), Hang Seng (+0.23%) and Kospi (+0.47%) all up while the ASX (-0.38%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.06%) are in the red. In FX, the Australian dollar is down -0.32% following the PMI data. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.42% while yields on 10y USTs are down -1.8bps to 0.603%.

The final expected highlight today comes from the weekly initial jobless claims in the US, which have become an important high frequency indicator over the last month. Over the last 4 weeks, a cumulative total of more than 22m claims have been made, which is around the number of jobs that were created in the decade of expansion. So it’s no exaggeration to call the scale of the declines unprecedented. For today, our US economists are forecasting claims at 5m, which would be down from last week’s 5.245m, and if realised would mark the 3rd consecutive week that the number has fallen, which would suggest we could be past the most rapid period of job losses for now. The S&P 500 rose by +0.58% last Thursday for a 4th successive positive close on multi-million claims day. The previous 3 Thursdays came in at +6.24%, +2.28% and +3.41% for the S&P 500. Will the streak extend for a 5th straight week?

With all that to come later, markets rebounded yesterday following their poor start to the week, with the S&P 500 (+2.29%), the NASDAQ (+2.81%) and the STOXX 600 (+1.53%) all moving higher. Energy stocks led the rebound on both sides of the Atlantic thanks to another day of sizeable swings in oil markets, where Brent Crude managed to pare back its losses from a 21-year low to actually end the session up +5.38% at $20.37/barrel. June and July WTI saw even larger rises, up by +19.10% and +10.70% respectively to $13.78 and $20.69/barrel. June WTI is up a further +4.28% this morning to $14.37. The catalyst seemed to be a tweet from President Trump, who said that “I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.” While geopolitics has rather moved out of the headlines since the start of the year, it’s worth noting that it was only last week that the US Central Command said in a statement that 11 Iranian ships crossed the bows and sterns of US vessels at close range. So one to keep an eye on. In related news, the largest oil-ETF, USO, has altered its fund holdings further away from near-term WTI. The fund has over $3 billion in AUM and is the largest single-holder of WTI futures according to Bloomberg. The ETF will now roll exposure to August and September, while lowering June and July, in order to shield itself from the price action in near-term contracts. Oil ETFs have been a hot topic over the last couple of days given the recent turmoil. When these were structured no-one could have contemplated a negative price on the contracts they invested in. It’s fair to say it’s caused some chaos.

There wasn’t a lot in the way of data yesterday, though we did get the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence reading for April, which plummeted to -22.7, its lowest level since March 2009. Otherwise, we got February’s FHFA house price index for the US, which saw a +0.7% increase month-on-month before the impact of the pandemic began to be felt. And in the UK, the CPI reading for March fell to 1.5% as expected, down from 1.7% in February.

Corporate earnings were mixed again. Chipotle Mexican Grill (+12.44%) rose after 1Q digital sales grew over 80% yoy and EPS came in well ahead of analyst’s estimates at $3.17 vs. $3.08 expected. Heineken (-3.05%) cancelled its interim dividend, while volumes were down 14% and net income fell 69%. Kering (-4.92%) announced on its earnings call that it doesn’t expect a recovery in the U.S. or Europe before at least June or July, while sales at its brand Gucci tumbled 23% year-over-year. The company did announce that sales in mainland China turned positive this month as tourist spending rose.

To the day ahead now, and along with the aforementioned European Council meeting, PMIs and initial jobless claims from the US, other data releases include Germany’s GfK consumer confidence reading for May, the UK’s public sector net borrowing for March, along with the US new home sales for March and April’s Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index. From central banks, we’ll hear from the BoE’s Vlieghe, while earnings out today include Intel, Eli Lilly and Company, NextEra Energy and Union Pacific.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.48 POINTS OR 0.19%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 83,96 POINTS OR 0.35%   /The Nikkei closed UP 291.49 POINTS OR 1.52%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .02%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0813 /Oil UP TO 15.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and 21.85 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0813 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0925 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN

Japan’s PMI collapses to record lows and thus we should expect a huge 10% crash on its GDP

(zerohedge)

Japanese PMI Collapses To Record Low, Signals 10% Crash In GDP

After China’s ugliest GDP print ever, and the collapse of US economic surprise index data, it should be no real surprise that Japan’s manufacturing and services industry PMIs would plunge (despite the “everything’s fine, the Olympics is imminent” narrative puked forth by the government for most of the month).

But, to crash to record lows is something else…

  • Japan’s April flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index falls to 43.7 from 44.8 in March – Lowest reading since April 2009
  • Japan’s April flash services purchasing managers’ index falls to 22.8 from 33.8 in March – Lowest reading since series began

Which combined to leave Japan’s April flash composite purchasing managers’ index plunging to to 27.8 from 36.2 in March – the lowest reading since records began.

Across the indices everything was a disaster…

Commenting on the latest survey results, Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“PMI data for Japan tell us that the crippling economic impact from the global corona virus pandemic intensified in April. Furthermore, the data show us the initial impact of Japan’s lockdown. The survey was conducted between 7 and 21 April The 7th was the day Prime Minister Abe announced a state of emergency in some parts of Japan, although this was upgraded to a nationwide state of emergency on the 16th and extended the lockdown to the whole country. ”

The decline in combined output across both manufacturing and services was the strongest ever recorded by the survey in almost 13 years of data collection, surpassing declines seen during the global financial crisis and in the aftermath of the 2011 tsunami.”

Overall, GDP looks set to decline at an annual rate in excess of 10% in the second quarter…

And it is not about to get better anytime soon:

“The current state of emergency will stay in place until 6May, although given Japan’s lagged response relative to other parts of the world, one would expect this to be extended, meaning the harsh economic effects are likely to drag out further.”

end

JAPAN

Bank of Japan launches unlimited QE and that should send gold/silver to the moon!!

(zerohedge)

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

Figures! China sends to the USA ‘contaminated COVID test kits..bacterial growth in many!

(ZEROHEDGE)

 

China Sends US “Contaminated” COVID Test-Kits 

It’s bad enough that China has frozen exports of medical equipment to the US during the pandemic. Now a new report sheds light on some COVID-19 test kits from the country that were sent “contaminated.” 

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) said the University of Washington School of Medicine (UW Medicine) “went to extraordinary lengths to airlift tens of thousands of Covid-19 testing kits” during the start of the US outbreak to only discover last week that some of the tests are tainted.

“I’ve just recommended everyone who has these things pause and not use them at all,” said Geoff Baird, the interim chair of the UW Department of Laboratory Medicine, who led the group to secure the tests. “I can’t say I’m not disappointed.”

Baird told SCMP that a colleague informed him on April 16 that some of the “liquid in vials he had sent appeared to have changed in color.” In shock, he said he stormed out of his office down to the UW Medicine storage facility where the test kits were being held and started to “tear through boxes.” 

 

COVID-19 testing vial.  (Photo: AFP)

He said many of the vials looked “fine,” but a “small percentage of them had turned to an orange or yellow color, rather than hot pink,” which indicated bacterial growth and, ultimately, contamination. 

Baird also had scientists add novel coronavirus to the contaminated vials and compared to uncontaminated liquid.

The conclusions, he said: “There’s absolutely no difference.”

After that, Baird immediately suspended future orders with the Chinese manufacturer.

Anita Nadelson, the Seattle businesswoman who helped the university secure the tests, said the Chinese firm would refund their money.

“They’re working diligently to identify and cure the issue,” Nadelson said. “We vetted these as best we could. It’s an unexpected turn on both sides.”

Baird said the contamination is concentrated in the specimen-preserving liquid, which makes no contact with patients, adding that “we don’t expect there’s any real mechanism of harm to patients.”

 

A scientist runs a clinical test at UW Virology’s lab. (Photo by Karen Ducey/Getty Images)

He said S. maltophilia was the bacterium found in the contaminated vials:

“It lives on surfaces and it lives on factory things and tubing,” he said. “I would think it’s in your home, my home, it’s on everything.”

Baird said the university gave 20,000 test kits to Public Health–Seattle & King County and another 15,000 to the state.

“I don’t know how many they’ve distributed yet,” he said.

On Sunday, the state recalled 12,000 kits it handed out to counties.

“We are working with our partners to have them discard the product and will work to replace them as quickly as we can,” said John Wiesman, the state secretary of health, in a statement.

“About 5,000 of the 20,000 they gave us had been distributed by us, and approximately 300 had been used,” said James Apa, a Public Health–Seattle & King County spokesman, adding that “the problem with the kit itself shouldn’t present any health risk to patients.”

Baird said while the contaminated test kits are a setback – there appears to be a national shortage of kits.

“We should be doing more, but we’ve not seen our volume go up,” Baird said of testing at the UW Medicine facility. “There’s a cap on the amount of testing that can be done globally, and certainly nationally, there aren’t enough kits for swabs and VTM (viral transport media) for testing.”

Defective tests from China were not limited to the US. We noted earlier this month Spain received 640,000 tests that were later considered useless.

While China attempts to restore its image as a global leader and focus on distributing humanitarian relief to countries in need, the latest snafu of contaminated or defective COVID-19 testing kits is a public relations disaster.

end
CHINA/USA
This does not look good as both China and the uSA are sabre rattling as the USA ships travel through the South China seas
(zerohedge)

US Blasts “Bullying Behavior” As China Rattles Sabre In South China Sea 

China is making big geopolitical moves at the moment, and it has used the cover of the pandemic to assert itself as a significant power player in the Pacific and challenge the existing world order and the US. 

The existing world order, controlled by the US empire, which is a world defined by capitalism and democracy, is running into severe crosswinds in a post-corona world. The US risks losing its status as a leader of the free world as China and its authoritarian system of state capitalism emerge.

We noted in early April China conducted war drills in the South China Sea as the Pentagon was distracted by fighting a war on the virus at home. 

The US State Department recently said Beijing is taking advantage of the region’s focus on the COVID-19 pandemic to “coerce its neighbors”.

Beijing has ordered the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) to conduct regular flight patterns around Taiwan and in the South China Sea — has also ordered the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to increase vessel sails in the highly contested waters where it claims the trillions of dollars in natural resources for itself. These recent moves by China have sparked outrage by the US, accusing Beijing of “bullying behavior.”

“Now that the domestic coronavirus outbreak has been stabilized, China wants to send an important signal to the world that its military and foreign affairs, previously put on hold, are back on track,” Cheng Xiaohe, associate professor of international politics at Beijing’s Renmin University, told Reuters.

As the pandemic unfolds across the world, Beijing has deployed military assets near Taiwan, enforced stricter rules in Hong Kong, and increased fortification of the South China Sea.

One of the most concerning moves Beijing made this month, is that it ordered the PLAN to sail its only aircraft carrier, called Liaoning, around Taiwan’s east coast. The drills enraged Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and US allies.

This comes at a time when four US Navy aircraft carriers — the USS Theodore Roosevelt, the USS Ronald Reagan, the USS Carl Vinson, and the USS Nimitz — have reported cases of coronavirus, crimping their operations.

A Chinese military expert bragged to the state-run Global Times that PLAN had no virus cases on its warships.

“Through the voyage, the Liaoning showed that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has done a great job in the epidemic prevention and control work and COVID-19 epidemic has not had an impact on its deployment and operations,” Xu Guangyu, a senior adviser to the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, said in the report.

In a statement to Reuters, China’s Foreign Ministry said: “No matter when or where, China resolutely safeguards its sovereignty, security and development interests”

US State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus blasted China’s latest moves:

“The United States strongly opposes PRC efforts to take advantage of the region’s focus on addressing the COVID pandemic in order to coerce its neighbors in the region. We call for the PRC to live up to its international obligations.” 

As America is weakened by the virus, China sees the opportunity to expand its control in the Pacific, a move that will challenge the existing world order and the US’ role within it.

end

CHINA

no doubt the virus has attacked their liver and thus their metabolism was greatly affected//bilirubin was released in huge quantities…

(zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU

European PMI’s hammered!!

(zerohedge)

“Unprecedented Damage To The Euro Zone” – European PMIs Hammered By Record Collapse

Economic activity across the eurozone ground to a halt this month as the new coronavirus sweeping across the world forced governments to impose lockdowns and firms to down tools and shut their businesses.

The latest monthly PMI manufacturing and service surveys illustrated the severity of the crash in economic activity across Europe and the UK, as lockdowns stifle businesses from Paris to Frankfurt. Overall, the eurozone composite purchasing manager’s index – which monitors manufacturing and services activity – fell to 13.5 in April, from 29.7 in the previous month, a record low in more than 22 years of the history of the survey, and blow even the lowest estimate of 18.0. The manufacturing component tumbled from 44.5 in March to 33.6 in April, below the 39.2 expected, but it was the collapse in Services that was shocking, collapsing more than 50% from 26.4 to 11.7.

According to Markit, demand all but dried up this month, headcount was reduced at a record pace and firms cut prices at one of the steepest rates since the survey began.

“April saw unprecedented damage to the euro zone economy amid virus lockdown measures coupled with slumping global demand and shortages of both staff and inputs,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

“The ferocity of the slump has also surpassed that thought imaginable by most economists.”

Williamson said the PMI was consistent with the European GDP contracting 7.5% this quarter. A Reuters poll published on Wednesday had a 9.6% contraction pencilled in. Unsurprisingly therefore, optimism was also at a survey low. The future output sub-index, which almost halved last month, was 34.5.

With restaurants, bars and other leisure activities shuttered, holidays cancelled and travel restricted the situation in the bloc’s dominant services industry was dire. The flash services PMI sank to a new record low of 11.7 from 26.4.

A new business index dropped to a record low of 11.6 from 24.0, and firms completed outstanding demand at the fastest rate in the survey’s history. April is also proving to be a grim month for the bloc’s factories.

The preliminary manufacturing PMI dropped to a survey low of 33.6 from March’s 44.5. An index measuring output, which feeds into the composite PMI, more than halved to 18.4 from 38.5.  Demand was barely existent and with many of their factories closed, manufacturers cut staffing levels sharply. The employment sub-index fell to 35.7 from 44.3, its lowest since April 2009, around the start of the euro zone debt crisis.

“In the face of such a prolonged slump in demand, job losses could intensify from the current record pace and new fears will be raised as to the economic cost of containing the virus,” Williamson said.

Earlier, French and German business activity also fell to record lows, in readings that suggest the region faces a major economic downturn, with manufacturing hit hard …

… but once again it was Services that were crushed as virtually all of the continent was put on lockdown.

As can be seen above, business in Germany – the eurozone’s economic powerhouse – crashed this month, following France in recording its lowest readings of services and manufacturing activity on record. The IHS Markit flash purchasing managers’ index for services fell to 15.9 in April from 31.9 in March, the lowest since record began more than 22 years ago as about three-quarters of companies reported a fall in activity.

The index for manufacturing output also dropped to a record low at 19.4 in April, from 41 in the previous month. The IHS composite index, an average of services and manufacturing fell to 17.1 in April, also a record low. April’s PMI surveys show “business activity across manufacturing and services falling at a rate unlike anything that has come before,” said Phil Smith, principal economist at IHS Markit.

Summarizing the catastrophic data, economist Daniel Lacalle said that “the collapse is much larger than expected and the largest ever seen. With most of the stimuli aimed at the wrong areas of the economy (mostly zombie states and enterprises) while keeping high taxes and regulatory burdens, the recovery will be long and painful.”

END

 

FRANCE/PARIS/RIOTS

Migrant areas of Paris hit again for the 4th consecutive night

Watson/Summit News)

Migrant Areas Of Paris Hit With 4th Consecutive Night Of Riots

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Migrant areas of Paris were hit with a 4th consecutive night of rioting following an accident in which a motorcyclist was seriously injured after a confrontation with police.

One clip shows firefighters trying to tackle a blaze after numerous vehicles were set on fire.

Pepe Mujica – Palabras y sentires 🎗@PalabrasdePepe

🔥🇫🇷 Fourth night of riots in the Parisian suburbs of Villeneuve La Garenne. There have also been incidents elsewhere in the banlieue de .

Embedded video

Another clip shows how fireworks were thrown at police officers to try and force them out of the area.

Edouard Foulon@edfoulon

Ce soir à , la racaille attaque les fourgons des forces de l’ordre au mortier.
Échec total du vivre ensemble.

Embedded video

A third video features a woman expressing shock as she records individuals throwing gasoline on a car to accelerate the fire. Then men then start aggressively chanting and running down the street.

Youssraa 🦁@youssramstr

Embedded video

Vehicle fires have become a common tactic to create mayhem.

INFO Roubaix@inforbx

🔴 FLASH – Il est plus de 3h30.. Incendie d’une voiture dans le quartier du Nouveau-Roubaix.

Embedded video

The unrest has been described as “anti-lockdown riots” by some media outlets, but that only tells half of the story.

The disorder was sparked by a motorcycle accident in the Paris suburb of Villeneuve-la-Garenne when a 30-year-old rider was seriously injured after he struck a police vehicle that opened its door at a red light.

The rider then hit a nearby poll and was hospitalized with a fractured leg and a fractured femur.

Rioting began in on Sunday night then spread to the notorious Seine-Saint-Denis migrant ghettos and other suburbs of Paris.

As Breitbart reports, after Monday night, areas in at least 25 cities and departments in France erupted in unrest in response to the original incident.

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END

FRANCE

French banks BNP Parabas and Soc General have suffered huge losses as derivatives blew up…as promised we were waiting for this to happen

(zerohedge)

 

First BNP, Now SocGen: French Banks Suffer Huge Losses As Derivative Trade Blows Up

Three things are guaranteed: death, taxes and French banks, the world’s so-called “derivative gurus”, losing boatloads of money any time the VIX spikes.

As a reminder, two weeks ago we reported that BNP Paribas, the largest French bank, lost hundreds of millions of dollars on complex stock trades as markets crashed in March. To exactly nobody’s surprise, traders at the Paris-based bank, which together with its biggest competitor SocGen, had long carved out a niche in “sophisticated” derivative trades – which work great as long as the market levitates unperturbed and suffer massive losses once the VIX spikes – lost an estimated €200  on equity derivatives once the market tumbled. According to Bloomberg, the trades that went awry included dividend futures and structured products. As we noted, BNP lost about 100 million euros on structured products, ostensibly by taking the other side of trades they sold to retail investors across Japan and South Korea; the trades were linked to baskets of stocks and other assets. The bank also lost about 100 million euros on dividend futures, with losses surging at one point to about 300 million euros before improving.

Fast forward to today, when the axiom that French banks always blow up when volatility jumps, was confirmed again, after Bloomberg reported that the “other” French bank, Societe Generale, also lost hundreds of millions of euros on stock trades during the market turmoil triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, and just like BNP, the bulk of this loss was also on dividend futures.

The losses in the equity unit – which amounted between €150 million and €200 million – took place in the first quarter and before April’s oil rout, and are likely to be cushioned by the bank’s performance in fixed income and currencies, as the global markets unit at Societe Generale saw trading volumes three to four times higher than usual in March across equities and FICC the people said. Unless of course the bank somehow manages to also lose money on soaring flow trading as well.

BNP and SocGen have emerged as the biggest players in trading of dividend futures which have tumbled since the emergence of the deadly coronavirus as firms around the world suspend their shareholder friendly actions.

In an April 14 note, JPMorgan analysts – who warned that French banks are the most exposed to such funky derivative products – estimated that SocGen lost as much as €300 million euros in the first quarter on “dividend positions in equity derivatives.” They were almost spot on.

Chief Executive Officer Frederic Oudea said in a February earnings call that equity derivatives contributed to a 9% rise in revenues at the equities business in the fourth quarter; in a few days we will find out what their contribution was to the first quarter loss. SocGen is ranked third globally for equity derivatives revenues, according to data from Coalition.

end

EUROPE/MUTUAL FUNDS

Market mayhem has many European mutual funds suspend redemptions as investors scramble for the exits

(zerohedge)

Market Mayhem Meets Liquidity Mismatch: At Least 76 European Mutual Funds Were “Gated” In March

Authored by Nick Corbishley via WolfStreet.com,

The mass shuttering of open-end mutual funds, a problem that has dogged the UK’s fund industry for months, appears to have crossed over to multiple fund industries in mainland Europe. According to Fitch Ratings, “at least” 76 European mutual funds, with an estimated $35 billion of assets under management (AUM), suspended redemptions in March after investors scrambled for the exits. Almost £9 billion was pulled from UK-based funds alone, more than any other month on record.

Fitch was able to identify the gated funds by scrutinizing their respective investment managers’ disclosures. But the actual scale of the problem is likely to be a lot larger than the numbers suggest. “The true extent of gating is even greater given that funds’ public disclosures are limited,” Fitch said. According to the European Securities and Markets Authority, funds totaling €100 billion in AUM suspended redemptions or applied other extraordinary liquidity measures in March.

Here’s a breakdown (by fund manager location, fund domicile and fund type) of the 76 gated funds identified by Fitch

Fund manager location: Almost two-thirds of the funds (53) were managed in Denmark. Fifteen were managed in the UK, five in Sweden and one a-piece in Finland, Norway and France. The preponderance of Scandinavian countries in the sample may reflect higher disclosure standards for fund managers in the region, Fitch says. In other words, other parts of Europe may also have growing numbers of gated funds that just haven’t been publicly disclosed yet.

Fund domicile, Luxembourg accounted for almost half (36 out of 76) of the gatings, reflecting the country’s dominant position as a domicile for mutual funds. The UK and Denmark respectively boasted 17 and 16 domiciled funds, while Sweden (5), Finland (1) and Norway (1) accounted for the rest.

Types of the gated funds:

  • 15 funds, all UK-based, were in commercial real estate (AUM of €23 billion);
  • 30 funds were in fixed income (AUM: €10.5 billion);
  • 23 gated funds were equity funds (AUM: €1.4 billion);
  • 5 funds were mixed funds (AUM: €1.9 billion).

Don’t Mention the “L” Word

“Widespread gatings like this are rare and the only comparable examples were during the 2008 financial crisis and following the 2016 Brexit vote,” Fitch said.

In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, six commercial real estate (CRE) funds gated. This time round, 15 CRE funds have so far shut their doors. Most of these were retail funds that offered daily redemptions though a few, such as the £3.4 billion BlackRock UK Property, were aimed at larger institutional clients and offered only monthly or quarterly redemptions. Combined, the gated funds account for roughly two thirds of all assets under management in the UK open-end property fund industry.

The official reason cited for the shuttering of these funds is that it is currently impossible to accurately value the funds’ real estate assets amid the market mayhem being caused by the response to Covid-19. Many of the open-end funds also probably suffered serious liquidity problems after sustaining significant outflows of investor money. They just don’t want to admit as much. As Fitch says, “even if the daily-dealing funds that gated recently had managed to avoid valuation issues, they would have had to gate anyway to prevent a surge in outflows.”

A sudden surge in outflows can be fatal for an open-end mutual fund, especially one with illiquid assets. When investors take their money out, the fund has to use up its remaining cash and then has to sell assets in the portfolio to raise money to meet the redemptions. In the case of commercial real estate, those assets can take months or even longer to sell, particularly in a downturn. This gives rise to that infamous “mismatch in liquidity” between what the fund offers to its investors (daily liquidity) and what the fund holds (largely illiquid assets).

Eventually, the fund runs out of cash and has no choice but to close its doors, leaving investors trapped and having to contemplate heavy losses. This is what happened to investors of M&G Investments’ £2.5 billion direct property fund, which gated in December 2019 after reporting “unusually high and sustained outflows.”

Rising Contagion Risk

Now, four months on, as more and more funds are following in M&G’s footsteps and shutting their doors, no one is talking about “outflows of funds” or “liquidity issues”, for one obvious reason: contagion risk.

Most of the gated funds in Scandinavia have adopted the same line used by the UK funds, blaming their decision to suspend redemptions on acute valuation problems. “The vast majority of gatings were driven by issues in pricing underlying securities across asset classes,” says Fitch. “There was even one case of an exchange-traded fund suspending trading due to pricing issues. Several funds have reopened but some are liquidating.”

In Europe, virtually all mutual funds operate with some degree of liquidity mismatch, with the vast majority offering investors daily liquidity with settlement within two or three days, notes Fitch. Some of those funds will have more cash and liquid assets on hand than others and will be better positioned to withstand heavy outflows. But as the recent saga involving the now-defunct £3.7 billion Woodford Equity Income Fund showed, even funds that claim to invest in highly liquid assets may be lying.

The good news, according to Fitch, is that the recent spate of fund gatings in Europe “does not pose an immediate threat to the broader financial system”. The volume of funds that have so far gated is a drop in the bucket compared with European mutual funds’ total assets under management, which were equivalent to around €16 trillion at the end of 2019.

The bad news, according to Fitch, is that “the interconnectedness of the financial system means that fund gatings can spread, giving rise to contagion risk.” This echoes earlier warnings from the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee that the liquidity mismatches of open-end mutual funds “can create an incentive for investors to redeem when they expect others to do so.” If this dynamic snowballs, it “has the potential to become a systemic issue.”

*  *  *

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END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

Iran launches a military satellite but uSA intelligence says that they again had a failure to orbit

(zerohedge)

Iran Hails First ‘Successful’ Military Satellite Launch, But US Intelligence Says ‘Failure’ To Orbit

Amid soaring tensions with the US and on the same day that President Trump issued a provocative tweet ordering the Navy to “shoot down and destroy” Iranian gunboats in the gulf, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) announced the successful launch of the country’s first military satellite on Wednesday.

Calling the surprise satellite launch (to the West that is) a “great success,” the IRGC statement hailed that “The first satellite of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been successfully launched into orbit by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.” State media and the elite guard further called it “a great success and a new development in the field of space for Islamic Iran.”

However, unnamed American defense sources are pouring cold water on the claim, with Fox News citing that “U.S. intelligence has not detected any new satellites orbiting Earth, indicating Iran’s satellite launch likely a failure, officials say.”

The United States has long countered that the Islamic Republic’s satellite and space program is actually cover the further development of banned ballistic missiles. Western leaders as well as Israel have charged that Tehran desires to achieve nuclear warhead delivery capability through the program.

 

Wednesday’s successful launch, via Iranian state media.

Undeterred by the fact that two recent satellite launch attempts in August of last year and in February of this year were spectacular failures (with a US or Israeli cyberattack allegedly involved in sabotaging the latter), Iran pushed forward with the launch which has apparently caught Washington by surprise.

This also explains in part Trump’s seemingly ‘random’ lashing out at Iran Wednesday morning: “I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea,” the president tweeted early morning.

Iranian state TV covered the launch, further details of which are described by AFP as follows:

The satellite dubbed the Nour — meaning “light” in Persian — had been launched from the Markazi desert, a vast expanse in Iran’s central plateau.

The satellite “orbited the Earth at 425 kilometres (264 miles)” above sea level, said Sepahnews.

The rocket itself was named  Qassed, meaning “messenger”, and contained a Koranic inscription that read: “Glory be to God who made this available to us, otherwise we could not have done it.”

The milestone unleashed national celebrations at a moment Iran’s leaders needed to show their population a positive achievement, given the multiple disasters of the past months.

Aldin 🇧🇦@aldin_ww

Photos from launch of Noor-1 satellite by IRGC.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

This includes losing Gen. Qassem Soleimani to a US assassination by drone, and the subsequent Ukrainian airline disaster which the IRGC belatedly owned up to, but mostly the more recent coronavirus pandemic which has sent the economy plunging further amid the state of national emergency.

Meanwhile, the real question remains whether the satellite is actually now orbiting the earth, which early US intelligence statements appear to dispute.

END

Iran fires back at Trump…these guys are broke, with a citizenry totally stricken with the Covid 19 and yet they will “destroy” USA ships that come near them?

such fools…

(zerohedge)

IRGC Fires Back At Trump: Iran Will “Destroy” US Ships That Come Near

Iran has fired back at President Trump’s provocative Wednesday tweet instructing the US Navy to “shoot down and destroy” Iranian gunboats in the gulf which “harass our ships at sea”.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif responded by mocking the rising coronavirus spread among US military ranks, a month after the outbreak aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt diverted the nuclear carrier from its mission in the Western Pacific.

“The US military is hit by over 5000 Covid-19 infections,” Zarif said on Twitter Thursday. “Trump should attend to their needs, not engage in threats cheered on by Saddam’s terrorists. Also, US forces have no business 7,000 miles away from home, provoking our sailors off our OWN Persian Gulf shores.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Sleepy Joe thought this was OK. Not me! https://twitter.com/heshmatalavi/status/1252934810504495105 

Heshmat Alavi@HeshmatAlavi
Replying to @realDonaldTrump

The mullahs’ regime ruling #Iran harasses UN Navy ships for propaganda purposes.

Thank you, President Trump, for reminding this regime that the Obama years are gone.

And BTW, this regime does not represent the Iranian people.pic.twitter.com/lBYjTGLltq

Embedded video

33.3K people are talking about this

And more crucially at a moment the US has been conducting military maneuvers in the Persian Gulf since late March, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Hossein Salami threatened directly in a fiery new speech to destroy any American warships that act aggressively against Iranian ships.

He said the US Navy will be met with a “crushing response”:

“I have ordered our naval forces to destroy any American terrorist force in the Persian Gulf that threatens security of Iran’s military or non-military ships,” Major General Hossein Salami said. “Security of the Persian Gulf is part of Iran’s strategic priorities.”

“I am telling the Americans that we are absolutely determined and serious in defending our national security, our water borders, our shipping safety, and our security forces, and we will respond decisively to any sabotage,” Salami added.

Javad Zarif

@JZarif

The US military is hit by over 5000 infections. @realdonaldtrump should attend to their needs, not engage in threats cheered on by Saddam’s terrorists.

Also, US forces have no business 7,000 miles away from home, provoking our sailors off our OWN Persian Gulf shores.

View image on Twitter
1,591 people are talking about this

“Americans have experienced our power in the past and must learn from it,” he threatened further in a likely reference to the Jan.8 retaliation attack against US bases in Iraq, days after the US assassination by drone of the IRGC’s Qassem Soleimani.

Meanwhile, undeterred by Iran’s own rhetoric heightening in a tit-for-tat way, Trump retweeted the below political cartoon later in the day Wednesday, related to his “ordering” the Navy to attack Iranian vessels that come close (though many observers have noted he stopped short of changing the official rules of engagements):

For everybody wondering ‘why now?’, Trump’s command follows the release of footage showing Iranian ships harassing Navy warships.

But for both sides it all could be but a brief distraction from more pressing crises at home, given Tehran is struggling with a brutal coronavirus outbreak that has forced the government to start reopening its economy for fear of an all-out collapse. Perhaps to a lesser degree, American is also facing this dilemma.

And the US’s push to enforce sanctions and add further strain has appalled some European allies, who have moved to try and shore up the regime via a facility that bypasses the dollar-based financial system to transact directly with the Iranians.

Renowned microbiologist, Chumakov, claims the Wuhan lab id absolutely crazy things with the coronavirus..he thinks that they were trying to find a vaccine for HIV..exactly what Nobel price in 2008 stated.

(zerohedge)

Renowned Microbiologist Claims Wuhan Lab ‘Did Absolutely Crazy Things’ With Coronavirus

A world renowned Russian microbiologist says that the novel coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic was the result of Wuhan scientists doing “absolutely crazy things” in their laboratory.

Dr. Peter Chumakov of the Engelhardt Institute of Molecular Biology and Russian Academy of Sciences claims that while the Wuhan scientists’ goal in creating the coronavirus was not malicious – instead, they were trying to study the pathogenicity of the virus, according to the Daily Mail.

“In China, scientists at the Wuhan Laboratory have been actively involved in the development of various coronavirus variants for over ten years,” he said. “Moreover, they did this, supposedly not with the aim of creating pathogenic variants, but to study their pathogenicity.”

“They did absolutely crazy things, in my opinion,” he said, adding ” For example, inserts in the genome, which gave the virus the ability to infect human cells. Now all this has been analyzed.”

The picture of the possible creation of the current coronavirus is slowly emerging.

He told Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper: ‘There are several inserts, that is, substitutions of the natural sequence of the genome, which gave it special properties.

‘It is interesting that the Chinese and Americans who worked with them published all their works in the open (scientific) press.

‘I even wonder why this background comes to people very slowly.

I think that an investigation will nevertheless be initiated, as a result of which new rules will be developed that regulate the work with the genomes of such dangerous viruses.

‘It’s too early to blame anyone.’

Daily Mail

Chumakov suggested that Chinese scientists were possibly searching for an HIV vaccine.

The Mail notes that the professor works for Russia’s Federal Research Center for Research and Development of Immunobiological Preparations – while Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, advised against speculation that the virus was manmade.

“In the situation where there is not enough information that has been supported and checked by science … we think it is unacceptable, impossible, to groundlessly accuse anyone,” said Peskov.

Meanwhile, the head of Russia’s Federal Medical-Biological agency, Veronika Skvortsova, told Russia’s Channel One “This question is not that easy. It demands a very thorough study,” adding “None of the versions can be ruled out.”

“We can see that a fairly large number of fragments distinguishes this virus from its very close relative, SARS,” Skvortsova added. “They are approximately 94 per cent similar, the rest is different… I think that we must conduct a very serious research.

END

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE VENTILATORS//UPDATE

We have highlighted to you on several occasions that ventilators are doing more damage than good.  The virus attacks haemoglobin and this releases free Iron and this is very toxic to the body.  The solution is oxygen,  high doses of vitamin C along with HIV drugs to stop the penetration of the virus. Hydroxychloroquin + Z pk + Zinc is very good in the beginning stages as zinc stops the virus from replicating.  Zinc is the real killer to the virus..

(zero hedge)

Shocking New Data Show 90% Of COVID-19 Patients On Ventilators Won’t Survive: Live Updates

Just 48 hours before Georgia was set to become the first state in the country to start reopening its economy, President Trump revealed in what sounded like an offhanded answer to a reporter’s question that he “strongly disagrees” with Gov Kemp’s decision because it didn’t follow the federal guidelines.

Trump’s u-turn outraged some supporters who believe the lockdown “cure” is worse than the viral “disease”, just in time for the latest reminder of how many jobs have been destroyed by the pandemic so far. Before blaming them as “covidiots”, it’s worth remembering that many red states haven’t been hit nearly as badly as most other states. Even the outbreak at the Smithfield Food’s processing plant in South Dakota – an incident that the MSM labeled “the biggest outbreak in the country” and cited as evidence of GOP Gov. Kirsti Noem’s “anti-science” agenda – has already subsided, and the rate of new cases has slowed, and the state has only recorded 9 deaths.

Millions of people around the world are beginning to question the wisdom of strict lockdown strategies. Sweden, a country that was once routinely bashed by conservatives for refusing to close its economy and borders, has found that its approach appears to be working. As once doctor who appeared on CNBC Thursday morning pointed out, the number of deaths and cases per capita in Sweden is higher than its neighbors. But not by much. For the record, Sweden has left its schools, gyms, cafes, bars and restaurants open throughout the spread of the pandemic. Instead, the government has urged citizens to act responsibly and follow social distancing guidelines. The country has suffered fewer than 2,000 deaths, and has only confirmed 16k cases, and the strategy has proved broadly popular: Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven is now one of the most popular leaders in the modern history of Sweden.

To be sure, even Lofven has admitted that Sweden made mistakes – for example, authorities should have invested more resources in protecting the elderly –  and when deaths and cases started to spike a few weeks ago, there were a few uncomfortable days when he faced a hail of doubt and criticism. But he stayed the course, and the country appears to be emerging from the pandemic relatively unscathed. In what is perhaps the country’s biggest sign of renewal, Volvo, which was forced to halt production across Europe and furlough about 20,000 Swedish employees, will resume production at its Swedish plants on Monday.

Earlier this week, the mainstream press flew into a tizzy following a report that a leading American vaccine expert named Rick Bright had been ousted as director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, allegedly for resisting efforts to join President Trump in pushing hydroxychloroquine. A recent small-scale VA study recently found the drug to be ineffective, news that liberals have weaponized to bash the president, after dismissing virtually every other study suggesting the opposite (particularly when the drug is taken in combination with a Z-Pak).

As it turns out, Bright’s claim that his ouster was an act of retaliation for not “toeing the line” turned out to be somewhat embellished.

Dan Diamond

@ddiamond

The Trump administration has been working to oust Bright since last year, as officials battled with him over his management and leadership.

With permission, sharing this time-stamped text from individual with knowledge of those fights.

View image on Twitter

Dan Diamond

@ddiamond

Possible for several things to be true:

— Trump’s push on malaria drugs was inappropriate

— That push alarmed health officials like Bright

— But some of those officials sent mixed messages about it

— Efforts to oust Bright predated Covid-19, as officials told me months ago

In the UK, where daily death numbers have remained stubbornly, the government’s top medic said Thursday that restrictions on everyday life in Britain will likely remain in place in one form or another until the “next calendar year” due to the time needed to develop and roll out vaccines or find a cure, the country’s top medic said on Wednesday.

South Korea, meanwhile, is already preparing for a second wave of the virus in the fall and winter, according Yoon Tae-ho, director general of health ministry, who announced the plans during a press briefing. Many public health experts – including FDA Director Dr. Stephen Hahn, before he “clarified” his statement the other day – have warned that the virus could come roaring back in the fall, combining with the seasonal flu to overwhelm hospitals once again.

The country also plans to secure more medical resources in the event of a bigger outbreak than what it experienced in Daegu, the city at the epicenter of the crisis. SK will continue to remain “on alert” until a vaccine is available.

Indonesia reported 357 new cases of the virus, bringing its total to 7,775. The country has reported a total of 647 deaths and 950 recovered cases, numbers that experts say are likely well short of the totals for both cases and deaths.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on China to permanently close all wet markets and other illegal markets selling wildlife for human consumption – something that China has already technically outlawed, just like they ‘outlawed’ the production of black-market fentanyl.

As more countries begin rolling back lockdown measures, tiny Vietnam, which has reported fewer than 300 cases of coronavirus and no deaths since the first infections were detected in January, said on Wednesday it would start lifting tough movement restrictions, according to Reuters, even as many of its neighbors remain on lockdown. Greece extended its lockdown until May 4, but said some small businesses will start reopening after that date, per the FT. A spokesman for the Greek government warned that “at each stage the impact on public health will be assessed. We’re going to take it week by week,” he added. A detailed timetable for re-starting the economy will be announced next week.”

More countries appear to be reopening as millions confront the undeniable reality that, when faced with the choice of sacrificing their livelihoods or risking infection, most people would opt for the second, even as the WHO’s Dr. Tedros warned during a press briefing on Wednesday that the rolling back the quarantines too soon might cause the virus to reignite.

The situation in Russia, which took early steps to keep foreigners out yet never followed up with widespread testing and surveillance, continued to worsen as the country reported 4,774 new cases of coronavirus and 42 new deaths, another record number of new cases, bringing the country’s total of 62,773 cases and 555 deaths.

 

Perhaps the biggest news overnight came out of Australian, where PM Scott Morrison called on all member states of the WHO to support an “independent review” of the origins of the novel coronavirus outbreak, further jeopardizing what has been an incredibly prosperous economic relationship with China that had helped the Aussie economy achieve an unprecedented 30-year stretch of growth.

Finally, the Washington Post reports that new data from New York’s largest hospital system showed that survival rates for patients placed on ventilators are even lower than previously believed. The data showed that a staggering 88% of coronavirus patients who were placed on ventilators in the state’s hospitals didn’t survive. Doctors, meanwhile, are also seeing more strange complications from the disease involving blood clots and the cardiovascular system. One doctor in China who barely survived his struggle with the virus experienced an extremely strange shift in skin pigmentation.

This news follows yesterday’s report which found more than 10,000 nursing home residents in 35 states have succumbed to the virus, representing roughly one-fifth of all deaths in the US.

The number of confirmed deaths from the virus around the world is approaching 200k, while the number of confirmed cases has surpassed 2,645,000.

END
THE GLOBE/PMI DEVASTATION

The Lessons Learned From Today’s Disastrous Global PMIs

There have been a number of PMIs released in the last 12 hours or so… And it’s safe to say that they didn’t live up to expectations, exposing how thankless a task it is to forecast economic data in this environment.

Japanese PMIs hit record lows (well below expectations)…

Europe was a bloodbath (plumbing depths hardly any economist expected)…

And now preliminary April data for the US was a utter disaster…

  • Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index at 27.0 (39.8 in March). New series low.
  • Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 36.9 (48.5 in March). 133-month low.

The US Composite PMI crashed to a record low at 27.4 as China bounces back miraculously…

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

The COVID-19 outbreak dealt a blow to the US economy of a ferocity not previously seen in recent history during April. The deterioration in the flash PMI numbers indicates a rate of contraction exceeding that seen even at the height of the global financial crisis, with jobs also being slashed at a rate far exceeding anything previously recorded by the survey.

“The large swathe of non-essential business that has been shut down temporarily amid efforts to contain the virus means the blow has been most heavily felt in the service sector, and especially for consumer facing companies in the recreation and travel industries. Those companies still actively trading meanwhile reported the steepest drop in demand seen since data were first available, and are also struggling against twin headwinds of staff shortages and supply chain delays.

“The scale of the fall in the PMI adds to signs that the second quarter will see an historically dramatic contraction of the economy, and will add to worries about the ultimate cost of the fight against the pandemic.”

However, as Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow notes, the PMIs also raise some interesting questions… and answer a big one.

First of all, you have to wonder why there has been a consistent pattern of misses versus forecasts. The cynic in me would suggest that it might be wise to take whatever number the models suggest and just apply a haircut. But while that may be useful in establishing bragging rights for coming closer to predicting the actual outcome, there is a real value to benchmarking where we actually stand versus what might have previously been reasonable expectations. This is an example of when being right is of less value than knowing just how much current reality and past norms of economic understanding differ.

Another question is why the models continue to look for results that are better than the actual outcomes. This probably has a lot to do with the perennial issue of asset prices not reflecting real life. Models look at the equity and credit markets, among other things we are being forced, or at least encouraged, to keep buying, and guessing wrong on what it “must” mean.We know that there are two alternative universes out there.That’s a very hard hard reality to teach to a model that can’t help but use correlation matrices and data time series that, in the realm of economics, have to go back a long way to be useful.

This is yet another reason to retire the hackneyed use of the phrases “risk-on” and “risk-off.” It’s probably far more accurate to say “More buyers than sellers today” or the opposite, as the case may be. Front-running a central bank doesn’t require an assessment of the state of the world. Or necessarily imply what it appears to look like.

We know things are tough out there. Using diffusion indexes, as we did today, to measure it adds an extra layer of uncertainty. Is anyone going to respond that things are certainly looking up? Even businesses that are doing well in this environment are loath to crow about it. “This pandemic is great for business” may be true in some cases, but it’s something better kept in-house. Circumspection is far more appropriate. And leave it to investors and lenders to figure out the winners and losers for themselves. We should also take the disappointments of the forward outlooks with a grain of salt. It’s so virus-dependent as to be not a very useful data point. It’s like asking about inflation expectations when rates are zero.

Yet interestingly, markets had modest but noticeable reactions to the releases. Which, at first blush, seemed a bit surprising. There have been more important numbers, with equally bad misses, that came and went unnoticed by traders. Just think back to the head-scratching response to some of the claims numbers. The reason these latest numbers provoked a response could very well be that traders are people, too. And we’ve allowed ourselves the luxury of hoping things are getting better faster than they really are..

It’s felt good to talk about relaxing restrictions and the possibility of opening some things up. We want that to happen. Boy, do we. So when bad numbers reminded us that we may be getting ahead of ourselves, it hurt. Nothing cataclysmic. But it was there, nevertheless. And, it may have been a cheap, yet valuable reality check. I know, I was disappointed with the outcome. And I wasn’t expecting much. It’s hard to argue these were simply backward looking measurements.

It’s an important reason, and this should be the unpleasant lesson learned, that we need to be very careful as we try to move toward normality. No one wants to be able to more than me. But, moving too quickly and having to step backward will hurt a lot more than being cautious now. And, potentially, do a lot more economic damage than already being experienced. Talk about a potential blow to morale. There might be light at the end of the tunnel, but we’re still in it.

The cure isn’t worse than the disease. I’m not at all sure this is really a states’ rights issue given we all have a stake in the matter.

end
Michael Every..global issues..

Rabobank: You Can Stop The Lockdown But You Won’t Go Back To Normal

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Suspicious Minds

It is perhaps the oldest Middle East oil trick in the book: you want higher oil prices, threaten to start breaking things. Yesterday US President Trump gave an order authorizing the navy to use “overwhelming lethal force” against any Iranian gunboats which harass American ships – and up popped oil. Of course, it probably won’t last long given supply-demand imbalances and the fact that Iran will now just switch to another way to harass and annoy the US in the region (of which it has many); and surely even the most suspicious of minds must concede that starting a war with Iran is pretty low on Trump’s to-do list going into the 2020 election? As such, the ripple effects from lower oil prices are going to continue to be felt in both some obvious and some unusual places. For example, one would think China is a big winner from this oil-price war – yet Caixin is reporting that the Bank of China sold the May oil contract to wealthy retail investors using fund names like “crude oil treasure”, who subsequently got absolutely crushed.

 

The UK government still can’t find masks. It still can’t tell us to wear masks. It still can’t do mass testing. But what it can do is tell the public what should have been obvious from the start: that social distancing measures will have to stay in place for the rest of the year in order to control COVID-19. We have made clear previously what the implications of this are: you stop a lockdown and yet you don’t go back to normal.

Please explain the functional business model of a restaurant already running on tight margins when customer turnover needs to be reduced by 50% to allow safe 2-meter gaps between tables, and where everyone is sitting there enjoying the food and drink and ambience in a mask. Imagine what the meal will have to cost to make a profit for the poor restaurateur; and imagine if subsequently the air-conditioning has to be turned off too given there is evidence that this also spreads the virus.

Need another simple example? RyanAir has announced that it won’t be flying again with “idiotic” social distancing rules, according to its CEO, which he proposes as middle seats being left empty when surely the 2-metre logic should be only 3-4 people per row, and two rows empty between each occupied one? On the more prudent basis an economy class ticket will surely be closer to business class fares – in which case the potential number of people willing and able to fly is going to be even lower than projected (an exponential/fat tail effect where less means less, just as more can mean more).

Likewise, Australia is now going to keep its international borders closed for another three to four months at least, even as local lockdowns are partially eased – so no international tourism until August at the very earliest. If anyone can afford to fly there when the skies do open again.

Of course, the US is also closing down to immigration for 60 days (except it isn’t: there are visa loopholes as big as the gaps in Trump’s Wall) even as it is seeing some states boldly reopen…and Trump is suddenly hedging his bets by allowing governors to reopen while being publicly opposed in the case of Georgia. Heads he wins, tails he doesn’t lose. We shall see within weeks if this action means the economy picks up or virus infections do..

Consequently, even as Australia saw its services PMI at just 19.6(!) and as Japan recorded the worst manufacturing PMI since 2009 at 43.7 and the worst services PMI ever at 22.8, consider that for the services sector on which so much of the modern global economy is built, normal service is not anywhere close to being resumed. Other global PMIs follow today and are expected to see Eurozone manufacturing at 38.0, down from 44.5, and services also at 22.8, down from 26.4, while the UK consensus is for 42.0 and 27.8, respectively, and for the US 35.0 and 30.0 – making the US a relative outperformer.

Meanwhile, today we will all be looking at the US initial claims data to see if another 4.5 million people lose their jobs, taking the total to 26.5 million in five weeks, or if it’s slightly better or worse than that.

A Little Less Conversation

Today also has a “make or break” European meeting on what to do to save the economy and, according to the French and Portuguese leaders, the EU and Euro too. Yesterday saw the ECB set some limits when it prudently underlined that it is not allowed to buy government securities directly, as this is illegal, and that ‘helicopter money’ would also be problematic for it; this is the same ECB that is literally begging governments to spend vastly more so it has bonds to buy in the secondary market (which is not just legal, but standard policy) and which is now about to buy corporate junk-bonds too. (Rather ironically, yesterday saw data show that Eurozone debt-to-GDP in 2019 dropped from 85.8% to 84.1%)

But back to the politicians. By videoconference (underlining the lost service-sector revenue to a hotel and caterer somewhere) a temporary EUR300bn recovery fund is being discussed along with a EUR200bn recovery and resilience facility, EUR50bn in repurposed cohesion funds, and two EUR200bn funds “to protect the EU’s internal markets”. And that appears to be it, even though somehow this is EUR 2trn in some headlines. Italy, which yesterday announced that its fiscal deficit will be 10% of GDP in 2020 even though there is precious little stimulus taking place is, according to a report in the FT, now willing to avoid the debt mutualisation issue and instead favour ultra-long maturity or perpetual bond issuance. One wonders how the Usual Suspects in northern Europe will feel about that compromise. Is the numeric response still 999?

I won’t allow myself to get sucked into the classic Euro game of mind-stultifying fudge, acronyms, and deck-chair rearranging. Instead, I will quote Bloomberg directly: “The ‘roadmap’ EU Council President Charles Michel distributed to national delegations ahead of the video conference contained no details on the amount, the specific objectives, the time frame or the nature of the investment needed to get the bloc back on track. Leaders aren’t expected to reach a decision this week and a final package may not be ready for at least six months,according to a French official.”

SIX MONTHS?! And then action on a scale that looks completely out of kilter with the economic damage being wrought. Euro-committees are all very fine and good, and I am always told they work best when in a genuine crisis (or only in a crisis) – but where is The King when you need him? He appears to have left the building.

end

Simon Black…

They’ll Wreck The Economy If They Have To

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Nearly seven centuries ago in the mid-1300s, the first major outbreak of the Bubonic Plague forced Europeans into some of the harshest social distancing measures in history.

As Boccacio wrote in The Decameron in 1353, the hysteria was so extreme that “brother abandoned brother. . . fathers and mothers refused to see and tend their children, as if they had not been theirs.”

When people sensed the worst was over, they slowly came out of their homes.

There was no grand re-opening of the economy like some department store suddenly under new management.  People remained highly mistrustful of one another, continuing to avoid even the most basic interactions with friends, family, and professional colleagues.

Commerce was slow and the economy remained depressed for years.

And just when it seemed that the situation was finally starting to improve, the plague struck again in 1360. And again in 1374.

Medieval Europeans quickly realized that if there was just a single rat left on the planet carrying the disease, then another wave of the pandemic could begin anew.

And that made it next to impossible for anything to return to normal.

Only a handful of industries flourished after the plague. People still needed to eat, so agriculture did well.

And as more people remained in relative isolation, science began to advance at a pace never seen in western Europe.

But most industries suffered immeasurably.

Commercial trade dwindled. Italy’s woolen textile industry practically ceased to exist. Many prominent banks in Europe collapsed. And there were even government debt defaults.

Today our circumstances are obviously different. The world has some of its brightest minds working to eradicate this pandemic, and they have a pretty great track record.

And while there are certainly a lot of challenges to deal with, we’re still able to produce certain goods and services, ship them across the globe, and order online for home delivery.

But there are some similarities that are difficult to ignore.

Right now most people are barricaded in their homes while policymakers wait for this virus to die off.

But that’s not how biology works.

Just like in the 1300s, if there’s even a single carrier of the coronavirus remaining, then the whole thing  starts over.

That person transmits the virus to 2-3 people, those people transmit the virus to 2-3 other people, and the exponential growth curve begins again.

Lockdowns don’t kill off the virus. They just reset the clock.

I’ve been writing about this for a while: what happens if there’s a second wave of outbreaks? Do we all go on lockdown for another two months and send the economy into another tailspin?

Even when they do lift the lockdowns, countless industries will be hideously disfigured; do we really expect crowded bars, airplanes, sports stadiums, and shopping malls to return to normal?

Even something as basic as office space could take an enormous hit.

I wrote last week that big businesses could be downsizing– permanently reducing their work forces and cutting back on office space. Even Disney acknowledged that they will reduce office space.

It’s hard to imagine that trend won’t have a major impact on the entire commercial real estate industry, from agents to construction companies to property owners, to the banks who own the mortgages.

Retail stores have been totally vanquished, and the bankruptcies are piling up; this could impact millions of workers in the retail sector and trigger a wave of defaults against the banks who loaned money to retail giants.

And you probably saw yesterday that the price of WTI crude oil crashed BELOW $0.

We’ll talk about that more in another letter… but it’s fair to say that low oil prices will force a lot of oil companies out of business.

And that will impact workers in the sector who stand to become unemployed… and, yes, the banks who loaned money to oil companies.

[According to a recent report from investment firm KBW, some banks, like Oklahoma-based BOK Financial, have more than 100% of bank equity tied up in loans to oil companies!]

I’ve been writing about this theme since the pandemic started: there will be some banks that don’t make it. They simply won’t be able to withstand the loan losses.

And it’s not just the energy sector.

Banks with loans to retail companies could take a hit. Bank with commercial real estate loans could take a hit.

And banks’ consumer loan portfolios will undoubtedly take a hit as millions of newly unemployed people stop paying their bills.

There will likely even be sovereign debt defaults, and banks will take a huge hit from those.

There’s more than $250 TRILLION worth of debt worldwide, much of it owned by banks. If even 1% of that debt goes to zero, a number of banks won’t survive.

And if you think that bank failures aren’t possible, please remember that oil prices hit MINUS $40 yesterday. Nobody thought that was possible. And yet it happened.

EVERY scenario is possible.

And this leads me to a very central idea:

I don’t know if the stock market is going to rise or fall. I don’t know what’s going to happen to oil prices.

But I have a strong suspicion that the government and central bank are going to keep working together, printing incomprehensible sums of money to bail everyone out– especially banks.

This ‘whatever it takes’ monetary policy could come at an extremely steep price.

The last thing politicians care about right now is the value of the currency. And history tells us that inflation is almost always the preferred tool of a government in crisis.

If they have to conjure $10 trillion out of thin air to bail out the economy, they’ll do it… even if it wrecks the currency.

This is an enormous implication worth preparing for today.

*  *  *

And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

The following is a must read as the author explains how the perfect storm in the oil market will become a reality

He explains how the huge 20 to 30 million barrels of surplus per daily will play havoc to oil producing countries like Canada and many others.

a must read..

Zeihan…..

Oil: The Storm Before The Really Big Storm

Authored by Peter Zeihan

 

West Texas Intermediate, the oil grade most associated with American production, plunged down to -$40 April 20. You read the right. For a while this week, sellers had to pay people forty bucks to take a barrel of crude.

As with any product, the business of oil isn’t a once-and-done. It must be produced, shipped and processed, and then the refined product must be shipped and retailed. What happened April 20 is a bottleneck in that process. Production surged ahead of pipeline shipping capacity, leaving some producers with nowhere to put their crude.

The real kicker is that this is not the “negative prices” outcome I predicted a couple weeks back. “All” the April 20 event was was a single facility in a single country running out of future leased storage capacity for the month of May. The April 20 price crash will happen again in the same place and it will be bigger: June WTI futures contracts are now spazzing, and America’s Cushing oil storage and transport nexus undoubtedly will be actually full by then. But even this is nothing but the warmup for the big show.

That will happen when the world runs out of storage.

Numbers are fuzzy in this corner of global oil markets. In part because everyone classifies and categories their oil storage capacity differently. In part because they should (gasoline storage is functionally different from raw oil storage). In part because some countries don’t share data because they’re lazy or secretive. But no one thinks there’s a whole lot of storage capacity left. Global oversupply of crude right now is over 20mpbd (with 30mbpd seeming to be the “average” guestimate). Most folks in the know are now musing that what storage remains will be filled up completely sometime in May or early-June.

And filled up it will be, because that is the express goal of the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia. The Saudi price war started out as a spat with the Russians over carrying the burden of a production cut. It has since expanded into the Saudis targeting the end markets of every single one of what the Saudis’ consider to be inefficient producers. The Saudis are directly targeting markets previously serviced not just by US shale and Russian, but those serviced by Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan and Libya and Iraq and Iran and Malaysia and Indonesia and Mexico and Norway and the United Kingdom and Nigeria and Chad and you get the idea.

As of this morning, there are still at least 24 supertankers carrying at least 50 million barrels of Saudi crude en route to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Most will arrive in May, seeking to fill up as much of what remains of U.S. storage as possible. Similar volumes are in route to Europe and even bigger volumes to Northeast Asia. In most cases the destinations are the transshipment nodes that enable distribution of inland-produced oil to coastal locations: Rotterdam, Suez, Singapore, Korea.

Assuming you’ve got deep pockets, and Saudi Arabia’s are some of the world’s deepest, it isn’t a stupid strategy. If the Saudis can push prices firmly negative, it will absolutely crush many of the world’s energy producers. My back-of-envelope math suggest some 20 million barrels per day of production capacity – one-fifth of global output – will go offline for years. And then Riyadh will have what it wants: the ability to raise prices as much as it wants and to reign supreme over the world of oil for at least several years. (There are still a veritable swarm of flies that will need to be dealt with in that particular ointment, but the Saudi plan seems sure of generating plenty of ointment nonetheless.)

The WTI price crash on April 20 confirms that if the Saudis didn’t realize the potential for their strategy’s explosive success before, they certainly do now. They have no reason to back down.

There are a few producers worthy of callouts.

  • Canada’s Alberta province has the most to lose. Not only landlocked, it must sell all its oil into the American market that is already so saturated. Its production must be shut in for years.
  • Venezuela was facing civilizational collapse due to mismanagement before oil prices tanked. As oil is the government’s only remaining income stream, this marks the end of Vene as a country.  Its oil will not come back for at least a decade, and even then only if an outside power first physically invades the place to rebuild the country from scratch.
  • America’s sanctions regime against Iran has been so successful the country isn’t an oil exporter any longer. Its output will absolutely collapse this summer, and the country lacks the funds to bring in foreigners to help restart it or the skills to do the work itself.
  • Russian fields are in swamps and permafrost. Drilling is only possible during the winter. Any shut-ins means the wells freeze solid, necessitating completely new drilling. Last time this happened it took the Russians nearly 15 years to get production back.
  • Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are both dependent upon other countries (in some cases, Russia) to transit their crude to market. High production costs plus finicky neighbors equals long-haul shut-ins.
  • Nigeria is a mess on a good day, and the supermajors who have made Nigerian output possible have steadily moved offshore to get away from the chaos and violence. Once they turn off their wells, they won’t even consider returning until global prices rise to the point that they are once again willing to subject their staff to frequent kidnapping. That’s several years off.
  • Iraq has been in a state of near civil war for some 15 years. The country is now producing over 4mbpd, the income of which helps hold the place together. Negative prices will remove the “near” from the country’s political condition and (at best) make the place a ward of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.

It is also worth noting that the speed that this could all go from head-spinning to head-chopping is intensely short. Right now there’s still a fair amount of spare oil tankers to shuttle about the world. The Saudis have been leasing out every tanker they can find, so before long all the the world’s tankers will be full as well.

Oil has been a panacea for all sorts of inefficient, compromised, and in some cases evil regimes for decades. Huge demand in the West and Northeast Asia allowed a raft of previously insignificant or morally reprehensible leaders and societal situations to effectively print dollars out of the ground and count the industrialized world as a hungry customer. Not anymore. Demand patterns have shifted, the United States is now an exporter of crude oil and products, and the petro-economy that has kept ayatollahs and ideologues afloat is crumbling. Before anyone cheers it’s worth remembering that things will get a lot uglier before they have any hope of improving. 

end
It seemed yesterday that the only place that had any space for oil was in California.  That turns out to the false as we now find out that there are 20 million barrels of oil stranded off the California coast.
(zerohedge)

20 Million Barrels Of Oil Stranded As California Runs Out Of Storage Space

Aframax tanker

Tankers carrying some 20 million barrels of crude oil are idling off the coast of California as onshore storage space runs out and the level of supply remains excessively high.

Bloomberg reported that the tankers, which carry enough oil to satisfy a quarter of global oil demand, are scattered along the coast from Long Beach to San Francisco Bay.

Analysts are warning that storing oil offshore on tankers as onshore storage facilities fill up could end up engaging a third of the global tanker fleet. This may not be as big pf a problem as it would have been at another time since the slump in demand for oil must have affected demand for tankers equally adversely–meaning there is free tanker capacity to use for storage.

Demand for tankers to store oil has intensified significantly, the Wall Street Journal reported this week.

“We’ve reached a point where there must be some kind of halt in production to suck up the glut,” the daily quoted a tanker broker as saying. “It’s the first time ever that we get more calls to book ships to store oil than to move it.”

According to data reviewed by the WSJ, some 100 of the 815 VLCCs available globally were booked during the 12 days to April 21, with average daily freight rates at $150,000. That’s compared with $10,000 a year earlier, according to shipper Frontline.

Meanwhile, storage space in the United States is getting closer to running out. “At the current rate of increase, storage in the U.S. would fill in 7 to 8 weeks,” a Mizuho analyst warned this week, while another expert warned of bankruptcies.

“The math is pretty simple. Current oil production is about 90 million barrels per day, but demand is only 75 million barrels per day.” Gregory Leo, CIO of IDB Bank, told MarketWatch. “While futures contracts expiring later this year are still trading as high as $30, if this supply/demand imbalance is not corrected their fate will be the same. And with the price of oil so goes the fate of some energy companies.”

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0778 DOWN .0028 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS //coronavirus/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.47 DOWN 0.352 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2347   UP   0.0026  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.4138 DOWN .0047 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 28 basis points, trading now BELOW the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.0778 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 5.48 POINTS OR 0.19% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 83.96 POINTS OR 0.35%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,02%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 83.96 POINTS OR 0.35%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.48 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 02% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 291.49  POINTS OR 1.52%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1730.80

silver:$15.32-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.62% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.21 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 100.53 UP 15 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.19% DOWN 9 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.04%//DOWN 10 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,99 DOWN 11 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 95 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.43% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.42% AND IF IT GOES ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0833  UP     .0027 or 27 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.61 DOWN .221 OR YEN UP 22  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2399 UP .0079 POUND UP 79  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 169 basis points to 1.4017

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0667    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0812  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.9270 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 0.61 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.19 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 100.10 DOWN 29  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 58.73  1.02%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 151.08 POINTS OR 1.45%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 59.70 POINTS 1.35%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 42.20 POINTS or 0.63%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 282.85 POINTS OR 1.69%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 17.73 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 22.81 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    74.37  THE CROSS LOWER BY 1.53 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 153 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.43 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  17.94

 

 

BRENT :  21.73

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.60.. down 3 basis points.

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.18…down 5 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0776 ( DOWN 30   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.60 DOWN .230 (YEN UP 23 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 100.48 UP 9 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2349 UP 27  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.9540

 

 

the Russian rouble 74.83   UP 1.08 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 108 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.4069 UP 117 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.43%

 

The Dow closed UP 39.44 POINTS OR 0.17%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 0.63 POINTS OR 0.01%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  40.71 CLOSED DOWN 1.27

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 1.02%//libor dropping like a stone

Libor-OIS: .957//dropping

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Inexplicably Close Red After Economy Loses Millions More Jobs

The headline banner may be a little misleading:

  • The Good – Stocks are up (all it took was a few trillion dollars)? Oil is up (all it took was threats of war)?
  • The Bad – COVID cases are up, COVID deaths are up (and Gilead’s drug is a dud)
  • The Ugly – Over 26 million Americans have now filed for unemployment benefits in the last 5 weeks, PMI…

A three-way-standoff between ugly real economic data, ongoing global lockdowns, and The Fed’s “whatever it takes” asset liftathon…

For the fifth week in a row, The Dow managed gains on the back of simply unprecedented surge in joblessness BUT the S&P 500 and Nasdaq DID NOT!!…

  • 3/26 – 3.31mm jobless, S&P +6.24%, Dow +6.38%
  • 4/02 – 6.87mm jobless, S&P +2.28%Dow +2.24%
  • 4/09 – 6.62mm jobless, S&P +1.45%, Dow +1.21%
  • 4/16 – 5.24mm jobless, S&P +0.58%, Dow +0.12%
  • 4/23 – 4.43mm jobless, S&P -0.04%, Dow +0.18%

As LPL’s Ryan Detrick noted “So stocks have never dropped when more than 3 million people apply for unemployment. That is crazy.”

Nasdaq and the S&P were unable to hold the early gains that were lost after the Gilead headlines.

Crazy indeed Ryan and the US’ COVID cases and deaths continues to rise – so ignore that too…

oh and Gilead’s stock price has erased all of its gains from last week as its Remdesivir drug proved to be a dud… but stocks are hopeful…

So, in its worst precedent yet, bad news – the absolute worst – is good news? Because it means fiscal and monetary idiocy will go all the way to ’11’ – even if it’s not already there.

But safe-havens were bid with bonds (price) rising…

Gold rallying…

And Bitcoin bouncing back…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably the “Virus Fear” trade has been flat for almost two weeks – even as the broad market has lifted…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow manage to scramble back up to its 50% retrace level once again… and fail…

The long-end of the bond curve saw yields drop today as the short-end was flat…

Source: Bloomberg

Big divergence today between HY (down) and IG (up) bond prices…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar rallied for the 4th day in a row after Europe closed…

Source: Bloomberg

The Brazilian real collapsed to 5.5/USD – a record low…

Source: Bloomberg

The entire crypto-space was bid today with Ethereum leading the charge…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil futures (June WTI) rallied once again (as did USO modestly) but as the chart below shows, the muppets still don’t get it…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that Gold surged to a new record high against Yuan…

Source: Bloomberg

And while physical and paper gold were bid, the futures premium over spot compressed today…

Source: Bloomberg

You have to laugh… global stocks know something that the global economy doesn’t…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

It’s now up to Favipavir (Avigan)…

Stocks Tumble, Gilead Crashes After FT Reports Gilead’s Remdesivir “Flops” In First Clinical Trial

Just as we suspected, the sketchy Statnews report claiming that Gilead’s remdesivir had achieved miraculous results on patients in a small preliminary University of Chicago study has been exposed as complete BS.

The FT just reported that Gilead’s “miracle drug” remdesivir has flopped in during its first clinical trial

Donato Paolo Mancini@donatopmancini

FT SCOOP: Gilead’s potential coronavirus candidate remdesivir has flopped in its first randomised clinical trial, according to draft documents published accidentally by the World Health Organisation and seen by the Financial Times. With @hannahkuchler https://www.ft.com/content/0a4872d1-4cac-4040-846f-ce32daa09d99 

Stocks are sliding on news that the “miracle drug” is anything but…

….and Gilead shares – which soared nearly 20% on the original Statnews report – are taking it especially hard.

As @RANsquawk pointed out, the fact that the market puked so hard on this report after a few days of relatively boring action is extremely telling…

RANsquawk

@RANsquawk

Reaction to the news is also quite telling in terms of market focus. Boring trade for days, then it is suggested that a treatment has flopped and the market pukes.

Three key catalysts for equities:
1) Vaccine/treatment/testing
2) When economies reopen
3) Shape of recovery

According to the documents seen by the FT, the regularly small Chinese clinical trial – which was recently shut down by Chinese health authorities, as we reported, compared the results of 158 patients with a smaller control group and found that the drug did little to improve patients’ conditions. Some patients even exhibited “significant” side effects, forcing them to be taken off.

The Chinese trial showed remdesivir — developed by California-based Gilead Sciences — did not improve patients’ condition or reduce the pathogen’s presence in the bloodstream. Researchers studied 237 patients, giving the drug to 158 and comparing their progress with the remaining 79. The drug also showed significant side effects in some, which meant 18 patients were taken off it. The WHO said the draft document, which is undergoing peer review, was published early in error. “In response to WHO asking for information and studies to be shared early, a draft document was provided by the authors to WHO and inadvertently posted on the website and taken down as soon as the mistake was noticed,” it said.  Gilead warned that the post included “inappropriate characterisations of the study”.

“Importantly, because this study was terminated early due to low enrolment, it was underpowered to enable statistically meaningful conclusions,” it said. “As such, the study results are inconclusive, though trends in the data suggest a potential benefit for remdesivir, particularly among patients treated early in disease.”

Though some of the details in the study were slightly more positive, including some “inconclusive” trends that suggest a “potential benefit” for patients treated early in the disease. In a statement, Gilead said it was disappointed over the leak since its investigators didn’t give permission, and confirmed that the study was indeed shut down for a lack of patients (something we questioned when we first heard the news).

  • GILEAD SAYS BECAUSE ANTIVIRAL DRUG REMDESIVIR STUDY WAS TERMINATED EARLY DUE TO LOW ENROLLMENT, IT WAS UNDERPOWERED TO ENABLE STATISTICALLY MEANINGFUL CONCLUSIONS

Already, Jim Cramer,  a notorious biotech bull, immediately tweeted that he doesn’t believe the study because it’s from a “chinese trial” (question: Is that racist?).

Jim Cramer

@jimcramer

I do not believe this gilead news. It is from the chinese trials …This is not from Gilead..

Of course, none of this should be a surprise to all the traders who actually read Gilead’s rebuttal of the Statnews report. Because when a drug company pours cold water on a report that one of the company’s own drugs might be a “miracle cure” for the worst pandemic in a century, you should know it’s serious.

Some even speculated that the original Statnews report could have been a setup by a handful of hedge fund managers hoping to profit off their Gilead positions.

The FT managed to get the “scoop” when the WHO accidentally published draft documents pertaining to the study.

Now will the mainstream media reporters who slammed Trump following reports that a VA study of hydroxychloroquine suggested it was ineffective?

Kara Swisher

@karaswisher

Someday when the story of this scam is written, I hope it is clear who should be ashamed of themselves for slagging anyone calling for caution: Anti-malarial drug Trump touted is linked to higher rates of death in VA coronavirus patients, study says https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/21/anti-malarial-drug-trump-touted-is-linked-higher-rates-death-va-coronavirus-patients-study-says/ 

Anti-malarial drug Trump touted is linked to higher rates of death in VA coronavirus patients,…

Rates of death in the groups treated with the drugs were worse than for those who received no treatment, and rates of patients on ventilators were similar, the study found.

washingtonpost.com

end

ii)Market data/USA

Another huge 4.427 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time

(zerohedge)

565 Americans Have Lost Their Job For Every Confirmed COVID-19 Death In The US

In the last week 4.427 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time.

Source: Bloomberg

That brings the four-week total to 26.5 million, which is over 10 times the prior worst five-week period in the last 50-plus years.

And of course, last week’s “initial” claims and this week’s “continuing” claims… the highest level of continuing claims ever

Source: Bloomberg

A breakdown of initial claims by state shows that the weekly devastation is easing, with the number of (not seasonally adjusted) claims in New York, California and Michigan declining notably over the past week, while Florida and Connecticut still showing dramatic increases.

And as we noted previously, what is most disturbing is that in the last five weeks, far more Americans have filed for unemployment than jobs gained during the last decade since the end of the Great Recession… (22.13 million gained in a decade, 26.46 million lost in 5 weeks)

Worse still, the final numbers will likely be worsened due to the bailout itself: as a reminder, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, passed on March 27, could contribute to new records being reached in coming weeks as it increases eligibility for jobless claims to self-employed and gig workers, extends the maximum number of weeks that one can receive benefits, and provides an additional $600 per week until July 31.A recent WSJ article noted that this has created incentives for some businesses to temporarily furlough their employees, knowing that they will be covered financially as the economy is shutdown. Meanwhile, those making below $50k will generally be made whole and possibly be better off on unemployment benefits.

Furthermore, as families across the nation grapple with lost jobs and struggle to get meals on the table, The Epoch Times’ Zachary Stieber reports that food stamp benefits are up 40%, according to the Department of Agriculture.

The increase will “ensure that low-income individuals have enough food to feed themselves and their families during this national emergency,” Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue said in a statement.

“President Trump is taking care of America’s working-class families who have been hit hard with economic distress due to the coronavirus. Ensuring all households receive the maximum allowable SNAP benefit is an important part of President Trump’s whole of America response to the coronavirus.”

Families receiving food stamps can typically get a maximum benefit of $768. Through the increase in emergency benefits, the average five-person household can get an additional $240 monthly for buying food. Families already at the maximum won’t get additional benefits. SNAP normally costs the U.S. government approximately $4.5 billion each month. The allotments made under the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, which President Donald Trump signed, is adding nearly $2 billion per month to that total. The emergency funds are made available through waivers the Department of Agriculture makes for each state.

But, hey, there’s good news… well optimistic headlines as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he anticipates most of the economy will restart by the end of August.

Finally, it is notable, we have lost 565 jobs for every confirmed US death from COVID-19 (46,785).

Was it worth it?

end

USA new home sales plunge

(zerohedge)

US New Home Sales Have Never Dropped This Much In March… Ever

After the plunge in homebuilder sentiment as they are forced to face reality and the big drop in existing home sales, new home sales were expected to tumble in March (after already dropping in February – bucking the uptrend in existing- and pending-sales).

New Home Sales crashed by 15.4% MoM – the biggest drop since July 2013 – smashing the year-over-year comparison down 9.5%…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest decline for March… ever…

Source: Bloomberg

From the best levels in 13 years, sales are crashing fast (and the last two months were also revised downward)…

Source: Bloomberg

The median sales price rose from the prior year to $321,400.

As Bloomberg notes, March was the first month when U.S. state closures of restaurants, retailers and other non-essential business became more widespread. The data underscore how the pandemic and broader uncertainty about the economy is thwarting potential homebuyers.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

USA//MORTGAGE BORROWERS

The market is abandoning mortgage lending due to the huge forbearance seekers

(zerohedge)

 

“There’s No Liquidity” – Mortgage Lenders Abandon “No Brainer” Best Credit Risk Borrowers

The jumbo loan market is facing a classic liquidity crunch. A perfect storm is brewing as millions of homeowners are seeking forbearances as the economy crashes into depression from coronavirus lockdowns, and firms who usually bundle up jumbo loans have immediately exited the market.

Jumbo loans are mortgages for the best credit risk borrowers who want to purchase mansions. In pre-corona times, lenders were falling over each other to welcome jumbo borrowers, but not anymore.

Greg McBride, the Bankrate chief financial analyst, recently said demand has dried up for jumbo mortgages as investors shift to mortgage bonds for government-backed loans where “they’re assured of receiving payments even if large numbers of borrowers are in forbearance.”

“Most mortgages get made by lenders who then sell it to someone else,” McBride said. “If there is no willing buyer, lenders will stop closing loans so as not to be stuck holding the bag.”

Tendayi Kapfidze, the chief economist at LendingTree Inc., said in normal times, jumbo loans were all the rage. Now because these loans “don’t have the government guarantee, a lot of those loans end up on the bank balance sheet.”

According to Optimal Blue, a Texas-based firm that monitors mortgage rates, lenders are charging more for jumbos than conventional mortgages, and this is the first time in seven years. Lenders have also tightened lending standards for wealthy households.

David Adler, an aerospace executive in Irvine, California, told Bloomberg that he thought it would be easy to get a jumbo loan at a rate of 3.7% on his $700,000 home. Even with excellent credit, he was told the rate would be much higher.

“I told the guy at the bank, ‘I’m trying to use logic here,'” Adler said in an interview. “And he said, ‘That’s your problem.'”

The Mortgage Bankers Association said the availability for jumbo loans has plunged by 37% since March, making it harder for the best credit risk borrowers to get jumbos versus all other mortgages.

Before the pandemic, lenders welcomed jumbo borrowers, but now, since the economy crashed and 22 million people have lost their jobs, with the expectation the economic downturn could extend into 2021, the market for jumbos has dried up, hence why rates are surging.

Lenders are pulling out of the jumbo loan market because a correction in real estate could be nearing, and many of the loans aren’t government guaranteed.

Wells Fargo has suspended the purchase of jumbo loans from other lenders, but not “direct-to-consumer originations through their retail mortgage channel,” said Tom Goyda, senior VP of consumer lending communications at Wells Fargo.

“Due to unprecedented market conditions, Wells Fargo Home Lending is temporarily suspending the purchase of non-conforming mortgage loans from correspondent sellers, effective immediately and until business conditions stabilize,” Goyda said in an email statement to Bloomberg. “This difficult business decision reflects efforts to prioritize how we serve customers and maintain prudent balance sheet discipline.”

Truist Financial Corp. and Flagstar Bancorp Inc. are other banks that have “pulled back by limiting refinancings, suspending their purchases of new loans made by correspondent lenders or pulling short-term credit lines from smaller mortgage companies they fund that make jumbo loans,” said Bloomberg.

Freedom Mortgage Corp. CEO Stanley Middleman said much of the pullback is from investors who would typically buy these loans no longer want them because of the challenging economic conditions.

“Whether the assets are good or not good is irrelevant because there’s no liquidity to buy them,” Middleman said.

Damon Germanides, a broker at Beverly Hills-based Insignia Mortgage, said closing loans is getting much more difficult than ever before. He said a wealthy client that has good credit and owns a business in the area might not be able to qualify for a mortgage.

“A month ago, he was a no-brainer,” Germanides said. “Now he’s 50-50.”

Last week, JPMorgan scrambled to raise borrowing standards on new home loans as the “moves to mitigate lending risk stemming from the novel coronavirus disruption.”

JPM also reported that its loan loss provision surged fivefold to over $8.2 billion for the first quarter, the biggest quarterly increase since the financial crisis.

The bank also said it would stop accepting new home equity lines of credit, or HELOC, applications.

And as a reminder, we noted earlier this month the residential mortgage market is already freefalling after borrower requests to delay mortgage payments exploded by 1,896% in the second half of March. Moody’s Analytics predicted as many as 30% of Americans with home loans – about 15 million households – could stop paying if lockdowns continued through summer.

With the jumbo market disappearing, even wealthy buyers aren’t trustworthy at the moment, as it appears the downturn in the economy risks triggering a major slide in the housing market.

end
the market is going crazy!!: Now not even the wealthiest are being turned down by lenders
(zerohedge)

Mortgage Market Meltdown: Even The Wealthiest Loan Applicants Are Now Being Turned Down By Lenders

The global pandemic has mortgage lenders steering away from even their wealthiest clients, as fears are abound that lost income could turn the industry’s best clients into its biggest risks.

Jumbo loans, which got their name because they are bigger than most conventional mortgages, have completely fallen out of favor with lenders – a far cry from how they were looked upon just months ago, according to Bloomberg. Availability of jumbo mortgages is down 37% in March, more than double the overall home-loan market. They exceed the limit for government backed mortgages of $510,400.

Rates for jumbo loans were 3.68% last week, which is almost 30 bps higher than the average conventional rate. The spread is the highest since 2013. Jumbo borrowers were previously seen as welcome clients, generally with great credit, money in the bank and collateral to put up.

Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree Inc. said: “Before this crisis hit us, jumbo loans were pretty attractive. But because they don’t have the government guarantee, a lot of those loans end up on the bank balance sheet.”

Lenders are charging more for these types of loans than they have in almost seven years. At the same time, they’ve tightened lending standards, requiring almost pristine credit to get a mortgage. 

People like David Adler are finding out that refinancing isn’t at easy at it seems, either. David, with excellent credit, went to lower his 3.7% rate on his home but his bank’s rates were too high to help. Adler said: “I told the guy at the bank, ‘I’m trying to use logic here,’ And he said, ‘That’s your problem.’”

Wells Fargo ranks among the highest jumbo loan holders, producing about $70 billion of the mortgages last year.

Over the last couple of weeks, the bank has stopped purchases from other mortgage banks and limited refinancings to customers who have $250,000 or more with the bank. Banks like Truist Financial Corp. and Flagstar Bancorp Inc. have taken similar steps.

Stanley Middleman, chief executive officer of Freedom Mortgage Corp. said: “Much of this pullback is because investors who’d normally buy these loans no longer want them. Whether the assets are good or not good is irrelevant because there’s no liquidity to buy them.” 

And the banks may be on to something. It turns out that wealthier buyers look just as likely to stop paying their mortgages as and regular buyers. 5.5% of jumbo loans, about 131,000 borrowers, have asked to postpone payments due to a loss of income.

But the jumbo market hasn’t totally dried up – it’s just getting more difficult to close loans.

Damon Germanides, a broker in Beverly Hills, says you can fall short of qualifying “despite good credit and owning a business that’s doing well during the pandemic because it’s deemed ‘essential’.”

Borrowers that were ready to put up 20% may now need to put up 30%. “A month ago, he was a no-brainer. Now he’s 50-50,” Germanides concluded.

end

The Republicans now have no more appetite for bailouts: they have now signaled to the struggling states to file for bankruptcy
(zerohedge)

Mitch McConnell Says Struggling States Should File For Bankruptcy

Over the past month, the economic shutdown resulting from the coronavirus pandemic – which as we hear every day was “nobody’s fault” just to make sure there are no unpleasant mentions of moral hazard during the biggest bailout in history

… has emerged as the perfect excuse for anyone and everyone in need of additional funds or a full-blown bailout to come begging for some generosity. Unfortunately for insolvent US states, they may be too late to get a piece of the bailout pie because as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, said Wednesday, he is open to allowing states to declare bankruptcy – rather than sending governors more federal money to deal with their own ballooning deficits. Because after $10 trillion in fiscal and monetary funds was allocated to bailout mostly America’s rich in just the past month, somehow states don’t quite cut it.

McConnell made the comments on “The Hugh Hewitt Show” amid a growing chorus of state governors imploring the federal government for urgent fiscal help and congressional Democrats seeking to work with the Trump administration to provide it. McConnell, instead, said he “would certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route,” an option that is not currently available to them – as he called for a “pause” in such aid from Washington.

“I mean, we all represent states. We all have governors regardless of party who would love to have free money,” McConnell said in response to a question on what the federal government should do to help states in tricky financial situations. “And that’s why I said yesterday we’re going to push the pause button here, because I think this whole business of additional assistance for state and local governments need[s] to be thoroughly evaluated.”

Hugh Hewitt

@hughhewitt

Audio/transcript of @senatemajldr on what comes next (and. @SpeakerPelosi and her ice cream): https://www.hughhewitt.com/senate-majority-leader-mitch-mcconnell-on-what-comes-next/  Bottom line: no giveaways to states, and perhaps pre-emption of tort liability by federal statutes. And, of course, judges.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell On What Comes Next « The Hugh Hewitt Show

Senate Majority Leader McConnell joined me this morning: Audio: 04-22hhs-mcconnell Transcript:

hughhewitt.com

McConnell also said that many states are struggling with funding pensions or similar programs, saying “[t]here’s not going to be any desire on the Republican side to bail out state pensions by borrowing money from future generations.” And yet, when it comes to corporations, that’s precisely what the Republican side is doing, so who gets to decide where the line is drawn.

After Hewett weighed in, criticizing liberal states that racked up significant liabilities, McConnell said he favored letting states declare bankruptcy, as local governments are allowed to.

“Yeah, I would certainly be in favor of allowing states to use the bankruptcy route. It saves some cities,” McConnell said. “And there’s no good reason for it not to be available.”

McConnell’s comments come one day after the Senate advanced an interim stimulus package to restock funds in the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and address a handful of other priorities. He initially sought to have the bill include only funding for the PPP but Democrats held up the legislation until they could extract concessions from the majority leader. Though McConnell ceded to some of their requests, he kept funding for state governments out of the bill, which is expected to see a vote in the House of Representatives on Thursday.

Democrats, predictably, were not happy: “Democrats are disappointed that the Administration has not agreed to more funding for state, tribal, and local governments on the front lines of this crisis who desperately need an infusion of funds to pay the essential workers who keep us safe,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, said in a joint statement Tuesday, quoted by Fox News.

“However, we are pleased that the President has committed to addressing this critical priority in CARES 2 and will work with urgency to see that this commitment is fulfilled,” they continued, indicating that the president was on their side of the issue rather than McConnell’s.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, said in his daily coronavirus briefing Monday that Trump told him “he’s going to work very hard” to secure funding for states in what Pelosi referred to as CARES 2, another massive stimulus bill that many in Congress, along with Trump, hope to pass once legislators return to Washington, D.C., on May 4.

“We have to have state funding,” Cuomo said Wednesday. “The states have a role basically in a deficit situation. And we need funding from Washington.” It’s unclear whether fiscal concerns, though, could lead some in Congress to reconsider the scope of any additional aid packages.

Governors have been calling for federal help for over a week. Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, the chairman of the National Governors Association, issued a statement on April 11 pleading with Congress to appropriate $500 billion for state governments as they deal with the economic and fiscal consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

Governor Larry Hogan

@GovLarryHogan

As chairman of the @NatlGovAssoc, today I issued the following statement with vice chair @NYGovCuomo to urge federal leaders to provide immediate fiscal relief for the states.

Our full statement: https://governor.maryland.gov/2020/04/11/nations-governors-urge-federal-leaders-to-provide-immediate-fiscal-relief-for-states/ 

“In the absence of unrestricted fiscal support of at least $500 billion from the federal government, states will have to confront the prospect of significant reductions to critically important services all across this country, hampering public health, the economic recovery, and — in turn — our collective effort to get people back to work,” Hogan said in a statement that also touted the work of governors to fight the coronavirus pandemic.

McConnell’s comments Wednesday were not the first time allowing states to declare bankruptcy has been discussed. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, some advocated allowing hurting states to reorganize in bankruptcy. But Republicans at the time squashed the idea, even as they also panned the possibility of the federal government bailing states out.

“While bankruptcy for states may seem like an attractive alternative to state bailouts, there are significant constitutional concerns that should be addressed by congressional hearings,” former Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Texas, said at the time.

McConnell concluded that states are likely to agree that bankruptcy shouldn’t be the first option.

“My guess is their first choice would be for the federal government to borrow money from future generations to send it down to them now so they don’t have to do that,” he said. “That’s not something I’m going to be in favor of.”

Somehow we doubt that what McConnell is or is not in favor of will matter

end

Tucker Carlson of Fox slams the lockdowns as the “largest and most expensive experiment in human history”

(Tucker Carlson/Fox/zerohedge)

Tucker Carlson Slams Lockdowns As “Largest And Most Expensive Experiment In Human History”

Fox News host Tucker Carlson railed against the lockdowns in most US states aimed at slowing the spread of coronavirus.

In a compelling presentation Wednesday night, Carlson questioned the “science” behind the decision to shut down much of the country, which has resulted extreme economic hardship as more than 26.3 million workers have filed for unemployment claims as of last week.

“What country is this?” asked Carlson. “It’s a country in a lockdown. We’re told we have no choice but to do this — to stop our lives completely.”

“Mass quarantines, they tell us again and again, are the only way to save lives,” Carlson added. “But that’s a lieThey don’t know it’s true, despite what they’ve claimedThere’s no scientific record to consult. It’s never been done. We’re currently living through the largest and most expensive experiment ever conducted in human history. We’ve spent trillions of dollars, and crushed millions of people, purely on the guess that a nationwide lockdown would save us from the coronavirus. Has it worked? Was the guess correct?”

Carlson then noted that the eight US states which haven’t issued shelter-in-place orders are “below the national average of coronavirus cases, and deaths, per capita” – quoting Professor Wilfred Reilly of Kentucky State University, who found that “a state’s lockdown strategy had virtually no effect on how severe its outbreak of the Wuhan coronavirus was.”

“Are you surprised by this?” Carlson asked. “Maybe you shouldn’t be. You can see the same trend at work in other countries. Sweden, most famously, has never locked down. Restaurants there have never closed. That country is still suffering from coronavirus, suffering more in fact than we are in the U.S. But the country’s epidemic appears to have peaked. And without locking down, Sweden has, and this is the key, has fared far better than other European countries that did lock down. That includes Britain, Italy, Spain and Belgium.” –Daily Caller

Perhaps most damning is new studies which suggest that far more people may have already had coronavirus.

Up to 320,000 adults in Los Angeles apparently had already had it,” said Calrson, citing the world of USC researchers who found that as of early April, upwards of 5.6% of the entire county had possibly contracted the coronavirus.

“At the time, the official number of infected people was about 8,000 people. City officials had no clue. They weren’t even close. The virus had spread throughout a huge population right in the middle of the most restrictive quarantine in American history. What does that tell you? It tells you the lockdown didn’t work.”

According to Carlson, officials in lockdown states are “by and large ignoring any evidence that indicts their policies, or that might threaten their new and much-loved power.”

“They don’t want to know what the facts are,” he said. “Indeed, some are now promising even longer lockdowns, maybe through the end of the summer, and even tougher punishments for those who flout them.”

“This is insanity,” Carlson concluded. “It is definitely not science. This is not science. It has nothing to do with the public’s health, much less the broader public interest. This is instead what happens when mediocre people suddenly find themselves with God-like power: deciding who can go outside, when people can get married, which medical procedures you’re allowed to have. That’s a feeling of omnipotence, and they like that feeling. It fills an empty place inside. They don’t want to give it up. They want it to last forever, even as the country dies. But it can’t last forever. Because it’s not their country. It’s ours.”

Carlson then interviewed Dr. John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine at Stanford University who authored a report which found that roughly 1.5% of 3,300 volunteers tested for COVID-19 antibodies were positive, and extrapolated (after adjusting for differences between the sample and the population of the  county as a whole) that an between 2.5% and 4% of Santa Clara County residents have antibodies – suggesting that 48,000 – 81,000 people had already been infected in the county by early April.

Commenting on the effectiveness of the lockdowns, Ioannidis suggested that we need to wait until the virus waves are “mature,” because “we can have some surprises.”

“The science is telling us that this is a common infection. Most people probably don’t recognize that they’re infected, they’re asymptomatic. At the same time it can be a devastating infection, it can kill lots of people” said Ioannidis.

end
the financing arms of Ford and GM are inching closer to billion dollar losses as a result of a plunge in used car prices.
(zerohedge)

GM And Ford Are One Step Closer To Losing Billions On Used Car Price Plunge

The finance arms of Ford and GM are inching closer to billion dollar losses as a result of a plunge in used car prices.

While the impact has been expected for several weeks, the plunge in used car prices has worsened, with prices falling “faster and steeper” than analysts had predicted. We had pointed out worries about used car pricing just days ago.

Mid-month data from Manheim showed that the used vehicle value index had fallen 11.8% for the first 15 days of April, a decline on a record setting pace, according to Bloomberg.

JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman said on Monday: “The real losers of the development are likely the captive-finance subsidiaries of automakers like GM and Ford, and the rental-car companies. If prices finish the second quarter 10% lower than envisioned, losses could total $3 billion at GM Financial and $2.8 billion at Ford Credit.”

Jennifer Laclair, the chief financial officer of Ally Financial Inc., said on an earnings call: “What we’re seeing right now is essentially the market is illiquid — and that’s the physical auctions as well as the digital auctions.”

They had been expecting a 5% to 7% drop in used car prices. And they may not be the only ones way off base. Recall, we reported days ago that GM was only bracing for a 4% drop in prices.

The collapse is coming as a result of used vehicle auctions grinding to a halt – along with the rest of the country – and vehicles piling up at places where buyers and sellers transact secondhand cars, according to Bloomberg.

A price drop in used vehicles could be another headwind for automakers and their lending units, which could be forced to write down the value of lease contracts that had previously assumed vehicles would retain more value. GM, for example, has $30.4 billion worth of leased vehicles on its books at the end of last year. Every 100 bps it has to raise its estimate for depreciation costs the company $304 million.

Joel Levington, a credit analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence said: “GM assumed a 4% decline in residual values this year. If the 10% drop Manheim has seen recently persists, depreciation expense could counter the $1.9 billion that GM Financial earned in pretax profit last year.”

A similar headwind could be felt by rental car companies, who would likely get less money from selling their used fleet of vehicles, which are also sitting idly by as the pandemic paralyzes the nation.

Hertz, Avis and Enterprise have all sought help from the Treasury Department for loans, tax breaks and other types of support.

Hamzah Mazari, a Jefferies analyst, said: “For Hertz and Avis, every 1% increase in fleet costs saps about $20 million from earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.”

Dale Pollak, an executive vice president of Cox Automotive said: “Six months from now, there will be huge, if not unprecedented, levels of wholesale supply in the market. Cars are coming in, but they aren’t selling. Today’s huge supply of wholesale inventory suggests supplies will be even larger in the months ahead.”

end
The USA is now expecting huge pork shortages to strike North America in the next two weeks.
(zerohedge)

Pork Shortages To Strike America In Two Weeks 

We have some troubling news developing deep inside America’s food supply chain network, suggesting rapid food inflation could be dead ahead.

In the last several weeks, six major US meatpacking facilities have shuttered operations because of the coronavirus outbreak. That means 15% of America’s hog-slaughtering capacity has been shifted offline, and there is an additional risk that beef and poultry capacity could be reduced in the weeks ahead, reported Bloomberg.

With every virus-related plant closure, farmers have been denied access to meatpacking facilities/slaughterhouses, resulting in herd overcapacity and suggests euthanizing hogs could be next.

 

Dennis Smith, a senior account executive at Archer Financial Services, warned that “meat shortages” will occur “two weeks from now in the retail outlets.” That means by the first week of May, certain pork products could be out of stock at grocery stores across the country.

“There is simply no spot pork available. The big box stores will get their needs met, and many others will not.”

Cold storage facilities only have a few weeks to cushion supply disruption of the latest plant closures. Bob Brown, an independent market consultant in Oklahoma, said cold storage supplies have a little more than a week’s worth of production – and wouldn’t be sufficient in satisfying demand.

We noted on Wednesday Tyson Fresh Meats, the beef, and pork subsidiary of Tyson Foods, released a statement that said its top producing pork plant in Waterloo, Iowa, will suspend operations until further notice because of virus-related issues. For similar reasons, Hormel’s Rochelle Foods closed its plant last week. Outbreaks have also forced closures for JBS SA in Minnesota and Colorado and Smithfield Foods Inc. in South Dakota. Several other meatpacking plants have recently come back online from virus-related shutdowns.

“It means the loss of a vital market outlet for farmers and further contributes to the disruption of the nation’s pork supply,” Steve Stouffer, head of Tyson Fresh Meats, warned on Wednesday.

If plant closures like these continue, it could add additional strain on the supply chain and cause “weird dislocations for prices — finished products are surging, while farmers are getting paid much less for animals,” Bloomberg notes.

The chart below shows how meatpacking plant closures have triggered exceptional food price volatility for pork-belly prices — crashing in March, to now doubling in a few days.

“Prices for pork bellies, the cut that’s turned into bacon, have more than doubled in just the four days through Tuesday on supply concerns. With so many fewer hogs moving through slaughter, Smithfield Foods had to shutter facilities in Wisconsin and Missouri that turn pork into finished products like bacon and sausage. 

Meanwhile, prices for the hogs themselves are plummeting. There are way more pigs than can be processed right now, so animals are backing up on farms. Hog futures traded in Chicago are down about 21% in April.” 

As for meatpacking plants, these folks are getting hogs at reduced prices from farmers and turning around and selling finished products to supermarkets for hefty premiums. HedgersEdge shows pork margins have jumped 340% since April 1.

USA Today report warns of a “rash of coronavirus outbreaks at dozens of meatpacking plants across the nation is far more extensive than previously thought:”

“More than 150 of America’s largest meat processing plants operate in counties where the rate of coronavirus infection is already among the nation’s highest, based on the media outlets’ analysis of slaughterhouse locations and county-level COVID-19 infection rates.

These facilities represent more than 1 in 3 of the nation’s biggest beef, pork and poultry processing plants. Rates of infection around these plants are higher than those of 75% of other U.S. counties, the analysis found. 

And while experts say the industry has thus far maintained sufficient production despite infections in at least 2,200 workers at 48 plants, there are fears that the number of cases could continue to rise and that meatpacking plants will become the next disaster zones.”

And if meatpacking plants become the next disaster zone for the virus – resulting in the closure of more plants, then food shortages could materialize and or a rapid surge in prices, a combination that could leave millions angry at a time when an economic depression is unfolding. Food shortages could trigger social unrest… 

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Bank of China sold oil’s May contract into a historic implosion in crude — and retail investors may have gotten crushed – Bank of China was trying to roll over their May futures contracts on Monday… reported Caixin, citing traders familiar with the matter… [More stuff to blame on China]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-china-sold-oils-may-contract-into-a-historic-implosion-in-crude-and-retail-investors-may-haven-gotten-crushed-2020-04-22?mod=mw_latestnews

The Bank of China speculates in oil futures.  Do they speculate and manipulate ESMs & other futures?

NYT: Chinese Agents Spread Messages That Sowed Virus Panic in U.S., Officials Say

American officials were alarmed by fake text messages and social media posts that said President Trump was locking down the country… [We all know who aided & abetted the Chinese agents.]  The messages became so widespread over 48 hours that the White House’s National Security Council issued an announcement via Twitter that they were “FAKE.”… [Including MSM reports?]

   Republican strategists have decided that bashing China over the virus will shore up support for Mr. Trump and other conservative politicians before the November elections… [And Trump Derangement Syndrome compels his US haters to side with China.  Where’s the vaccine for TDS?]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/politics/coronavirus-china-disinformation.html#click=https://t.co/VdIB1x1KW5

Arrows targeting China will hurt Biden: Global Times [a CCP mouthpiece; a veiled warning to Joe?]

If the topic of US campaign keeps focusing on China like that, the likelihood of Trump winning a reelection will probably increase… https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1186443.shtml

@realDonaldTrump: I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.

EU Eyes $2.2 Trillion Recovery Plan to Tackle Historic Slump April 22, 2020, 7:16 AM CDT

Leaders will discuss recovery proposals in Thursday meeting

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/eu-commission-eyes-2-2-trillion-plan-for-coronavirus-recovery

Oil jumped on Trump’s bellicosity; ESMs jumped on oil’s jump.  ESMs and gold soared on the EU bailout plan proposal.  This is high finance these days!

@charliebilello: The CRB Commodity Index is at its lowest level since September 1972, down 75% from its 2008 high. [But, but commodities are a ‘store of value’ against central bank largesse!  Not when economic depression suppresses demand and storage is expensive or non-existent!]

McConnell Says He Favors Allowing States to Declare Bankruptcy…rather than federal bailout…

“There’s not going to be any desire on the Republican side to bail out state pensions by borrowing money from future generations.”…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/mcconnell-says-he-favors-allowing-states-to-declare-bankruptcy

SF Chronicle’s @mgafni: Wow. Santa Clara County announces that autopsies find three people died from #COVID19 before March 9, originally thought to be first county death  One of those people died Feb. 6 long before

    @IngrahamAngle: The virus had obviously circulating for many weeks if not longer out West…and soon we will see just how the viral stains attenuated. Fascinating.  We made big decisions based on faulty data, bad models.  [Can you say ‘herd immunity’?]

Fox LA’s @LizHabib: @GavinNewsom says he has ordered autopsies back to December to find out how long COVID19 has been in CA. New evidence shows 1st death Feb. 6.

@justin_hart: Over the past 3 flu seasons according to the CDC, vaccines and flu shots averted just 10% of influenza deaths.  You should still get those shots but if you’re waiting for that #COVID19 vaccine you may want to reset your expectations as to the efficacy of these supposed panaceas

Nicole Saphier, MD @NBSaphierMD: As unemployment approaches 20%, each 1% rise can result in 3.3% spike in drug OD/ 1% increase in suicides (National Bureau of Economic Research.) If unemployment hits 32%, ~77,000 Americans may die as a result. Will economic fallout mortality be greater than the virus itself?

@CBSNews: A reporter asked Gov. Cuomo what he’d say to New Yorkers who want to go back to work because they’re running out of money, to which he replied, “Economic hardship doesn’t equal death”

You want to go to work? Go take a job as an essential worker” he added.  [Can you imagine the MSM and political outrage if Trump said something as cold as this?]https://cbsn.ws/2wYbD51

As Chicagoans eat at home because of COVID-19, rats used to dining out on restaurant scraps follow the food supply     https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-rats-starving-restaurant-closings-20200421-aftkz6gxkjc2tj5o77aqu7txuu-story.html?outputType=amp

Next coronavirus aid package may not pass Congress until June as battle lines harden

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/next-coronavirus-aid-package-may-not-pass-congress-until-june-as-battle-lines-harden-2020-04-22

Fox’s Brit Hume: Time to consider possibility that coronavirus lockdown was colossal public policy calamity https://news.yahoo.com/brit-hume-time-consider-possibility-033656171.html

WSJ: Covid-19 Deaths Top 10,000 in Nursing Facilities across U.S. [47k total US fatalities]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-deaths-in-u-s-nursing-long-term-care-facilities-top-10-000-11587586237

ECB loosens collateral rules to accept ‘fallen angel’ bonds

New regulations aim to limit impact of expected wave of ratings downgrades

https://www.ft.com/content/4012aedd-dbfa-4d12-92ce-2e087a8c353d

Today – Initial Jobless Claims will dictate early trading.  The whisper number is 5.043m; the Street consensus is 4.5m.  When there is impact economic data before the NYSE open or just after the open, the 1st Hour Indicator is a very valuable guide.  Any breach of the first hour high or low could ignite a move.

Viral Video Arrest of Idaho Mom at Neighborhood Playground Sparks Backlash

Many Americans in the central and southern states have begun to question whether the fate of their states and local communities should be dictated by the more dire circumstances of large cities on the East and West coasts – where case numbers have been soaring.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/viral-video-arrest-idaho-mom-neighborhood-playground-sparks-more-protests

@KUSINews: San Diego woman Naomi Israel is facing charges for organizing the “Freedom Rally” in Downtown San Diego last weekend. Israel’s attorney said, “Our client is being charged with a crime for participating in constitutionally protected activity.” More infohttps://bit.ly/3cEezD5

Harvard law professor believes homeschooling can be ‘dangerous’ because it gives parents ‘authoritarian control’ over their children

Harvard graduate, Melba Pearson, who says she was homeschooled until she went to college, called it ‘an attack on the fundamental rights and freedoms that make our country… what they are’.  Pearson wrote in an article published on Medium that: ‘The idea that a government, already so inefficient and inadequate in so many areas, can care for and educate every child better than its parent is wrong.‘… Director of School of Choice at the Reason Foundation, Corey A. DeAngelis, tweeted: ‘The elites are terrified that families are figuring out they can educate their own children at home.’…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8242579/Harvard-law-professor-calls-homeschooling-dangerous.html

[Ex-CIA] Fred Fleitz: Brennan Suppressed Intelligence That Suggested Putin Preferred Clinton

House Intelligence Committee staff told me that after an exhaustive investigation reviewing intelligence and interviewing intelligence officers, they found that Brennan suppressed high-quality intelligence suggesting that Putin actually wanted the more predictable and malleable Clinton to win the 2016 election… [Who was it that sold 20% of the US’s uranium to Russia?]  Fleitz argued that Democrats on the Senate Intelligence Committee would never allow information about an Obama official suppressing intelligence in the intelligence community assessment to see the light of day, and because Sen. Burr is such a profoundly weak Intel chairman, he would go along with them…

https://amgreatness.com/2020/04/22/fred-fleitz-brennan-suppressed-intelligence-that-showed-putin-preferred-clinton/#.XqC531LKDG4.twitter

Well that is all for today

I will see you TUESDAY night.

 

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