APRIL 28//GOLD DOWN $3.50 TO $1708.50/SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TO $15.13//MASSIVE MOVEMENTS INSIDE THE GOLD COMEX//98.1 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL AND WE WILL HAVE 24 TONNES OF GOLD STAND IN MAY//HUGE NUMBER OF TANKERS FLOATING ON THE SEAS WITH NO HOME TO GO TO//WTI CLOSES AT $12.00//CORONAVIRUS GLOBAL UPDATE///THE “WAR” WITH CHINA BEGINS ON THE ORIGINS OF THE CORONAVIRUS/ EUROPEAN BANKS BRACE FOR HUGE DEFAULTS//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1708.50  DOWN $3.50   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$15.13  DOWN 2 CENTS

 

 

This Thursday is OTC/LBMA options expiry

 

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

i)Gold : $1708.80  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $15.15//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

APRIL comex gold price CLOSE 1.30 PM:  $1707.10

MAY COMEX GOLD:  1709.10 1:30 PM

JUNE GOLD:  $1721.70  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $13.20.//PREMIUMS WENT UP AGAIN

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER APRIL COMEX CLOSE: XXX

SILVER MAY COMEX CLOSE;   $15.25…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE MAY:  12 CENTS  PER OZ//PREMIUMS UP AGAIN

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2800. usa per oz

and silver; $31.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO WHAT THE CROOKS ARE DOING AT THE COMEX AND LONDON LBMA..PHYSICAL IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AND NOTHING ELSE

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  0/99

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 04/27/2020 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 04/27/2020
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:31:12
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,711.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/27/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 04/29/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
104 C MIZUHO 1 45
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 28
365 C ED&F MAN CAPITA 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 8
685 C RJ OBRIEN 10
686 C INTL FCSTONE 11
690 C ABN AMRO 54
737 C ADVANTAGE 4
905 C ADM 1 8
991 H CME 27
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 99 99
MONTH TO DATE: 31,541

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL CONTRACT: 99 NOTICE(S) FOR 9900 OZ (0.4696 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  31,541 NOTICES FOR 3,154,100 OZ  (98.105 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR APRIL

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  nil  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 832 for 4,160,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $7777 UP  36 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $7717 DOWN $56

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50: AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

A PHONY PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES

 

 

GLD: 1,048.31 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

 

A SMALL WITHDRAWAL IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:  373,000 OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

SLV: 412,826  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL  BY A STRONG SIZED 3970 CONTRACTS FROM 143,299 DOWN TO 139,329 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE  OUR 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO SOME  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, SOME LONG LIQUIDATION ALONG WITH OUR ZERO GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING. WE HAD A STRONG NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3546 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A STRONG AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   MARCH:  00 AND MAY: 424 AND JULY: 0  AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  424 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 424 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 424 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.120 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.160  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING FOR APRIL

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 1 CENT).. BUT, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME  SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS, AS WE DID HAVE A VERY STRONG NET LOSS OF 3970 CONTRACTS OR 17.73 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

WE HAVE NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER THE ILLEGAL SPREADING OPERATION \ FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW STOPPED IN GOLD AS THEY NOW BEGIN TO MORPH INTO SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW FRONT MONTH WILL BE MAY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

17,642 CONTRACTS (FOR 18 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 17,642 CONTRACTS) OR 88.21 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1001 CONTRACTS OR 5.008 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 88.21 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 12.60% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          971,70 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP SO FAR                   88.21 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE THIS MONTH IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3970, WITH OUR 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 424 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3546 CONTRACTS (DESPITE OUR 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 424 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG DECREASE OF 23970 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/ AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.18 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.7050 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 100.7% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  MAR DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR   nil OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.160 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 2940 CONTRACTS TO 501,029 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE GOOD GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR CONSIDERABLE COMEX LOSS IN PRICE  OF $12.75 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY// WE  HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING , A STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A GOOD  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED DESPITE  OUR STRONG LOSS IN THE PAPER PRICE OF GOLD.

WE HAD 1 ISSUANCE OF OUR NEW 4 GC CONTRACT

 

WE GAINED A GOOD 5913 CONTRACTS  (18.39 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 2812 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACTS, FEB>  CONTRACTS; MARCH 00 APRIL: 0. MAY: 0, AND JUNE 1418.; DEC 0 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1418.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 501,029. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4358 CONTRACTS: 2940 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1418 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4358 CONTRACTS OR 13.55 TONNES. FRIDAY, WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF $12,75 IN GOLD TRADING…...

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 13.55 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR WERE SUPPLYING INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT FELL $12.75). AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WERE UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

4 GC ISSUANCE:  ONE

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD  A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (1418) ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN IN COMEX OI  (2940 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4358 CONTRACTS.  WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A STRONG INCREASE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH THAT CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//MONDAY

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 74,902 CONTRACTS OR 7,490,200 oz OR 232.97 TONNES (18 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 4161 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 232.97 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 232.87/3550 x 100% TONNES =6.55% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTH…THE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2555.87  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

 

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               232.97  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3970 CONTRACTS FROM 143,299 DOWN TO 139,329 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO 1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL AND 4) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 424 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 FOR FEB. 0; FOR MAR  0:  AND MAY: 424; JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 424 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE STRONG COMEX OI LOSS  OF 3970 CONTRACTS TO THE 424 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS OF 2326 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 17.73 MILLION  OZ!!! DESPITE THE 1 GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 1 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 424 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.47 POINTS OR 0.19%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 295.82 POINTS OR 1.22%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 12.03 POINTS OR 0.06%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .13%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0771 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0771 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0831 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD 2940 CONTRACTS TO 501,029 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS GOOD COMEX OI GAIN WAS SET DESPITE OUR CONSIDERABLE LOSS OF $12,75 IN GOLD PRICING /MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1418 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)   ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX //  APRIL/GOLD…  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD GAIN ON TWO EXCHANGES OF 4358 CONTRACTS.

WE AGAIN HAD ZERO 1- GC CONTRACT ISSUANCE

  1. Monday, 27 Apr 2020 (Preliminary)
    Friday, 24 Apr 2020 (Final)
    Thursday, 23 Apr 2020 (Final)
    Wednesday, 22 Apr 2020 (Final)
    Tuesday, 21 Apr 2020 (Final)

Daily Exchange Volume ChartFutureOptionMar 30Mar 31Apr 01Apr 02Apr 03Apr 06Apr 07Apr 08Apr 09Apr 10Apr 13Apr 14Apr 15Apr 16Apr 17Apr 20Apr 21Apr 22Apr 23Apr 24Apr 2701

Date Future Option
Mar 30 0 0
Mar 31 0 0
Apr 01 0 0
Apr 02 0 0
Apr 03 0 0
Apr 06 0 0
Apr 07 0 0
Apr 08 0 0
Apr 09 0 0
Apr 10 0 0
Apr 13 0 0
Apr 14 0 0
Apr 15 0 0
Apr 16 0 0
Apr 17 0 0
Apr 20 0 0
Apr 21 0 0
Apr 22 0 0
Apr 23 0 0
Apr 24 0 0
Apr 27 1 0

 

Month Volume Deliveries Open Interest
Venue Detail Trade Type Detail At Close Change
Globex Open Outcry PNT / ClearPort Total Volume Block Trades EFP EFR EFS TAS
JUN 20 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Totals 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
From Andrew to me:

Andrew Maguire

6:18 AM (1 hour ago)
to Gold, Chris, me

Guys I just sent this post to Matt Hunter………

 

“The 4GC contract finally had a single token 1 lot trade yesterday at 4GC 1697.60 when June GCM20 was trading at 1725.90. & spot gold was trading at 1712.50. https://www.screencast.com/t/zYAWMlecOT Clearly this ‘trade’ was spurious & an embarrassment for the LBMA & CME. We have reported this to the CFTC.”

 

Lets see what he says

Best

A

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1418 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

 FEB: 0; MARCH 00 AND APRIL: 0, MAY: 0  JUNE : 1418 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1418 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER OUR LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  4358 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1418 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 2940 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A GOOD AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH A HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG COMEX GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY……(SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL BY $12,75).  BUT, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS, AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 13.55 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 4358 CONTRACTS OR 435,800 OZ OR 13.55 TONNES. 

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  501,029 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 50.10 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  15658 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1558/2200 OR 70.86% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 173,594 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY161,365 contracts//

APRIL 28

APRIL GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
339,155.660
oz
MALCA
BRINKS
INCLUDES 10,000 KILOBARS
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 64.237.698 oz

BRINKS

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

112,326.204

OZ

BRINKS

BNS

 

INCLUDES 2,000

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
99 notice(s)
 9900 OZ
(0.2799 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
25 contracts
(2500 oz)
0.0777 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
31541 notices
3,154,100 OZ
98.105 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposits into the dealer

I) Into the dealer Brinks: 64,237.698 OZ

 

 

total dealer deposits: 64,237.698   oz

total dealer withdrawals: NIL oz

we had 2 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Brinks:  48,026.204 oz

 

ii) Into BNS: 64,300.00000000   (2,000 kilobars)

 

 

 

total deposits:  112,326.204   oz

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:  17,675.66 oz

ii) OUT OF MALCA:  321,480.00000 OZ  10,000 KILOBARS

 

 

total gold withdrawals; 339,155.66   oz

We had 2  kilobar transactions  +

 

We had ONE  4 KC bar transaction

we had 0 huge good London delivery bar removals//additions

 

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1

FROM JPMORGAN:    274,987.503 oz was removed from the dealer and this traveled to the customer account of jPMorgan.

 

 

The front month of APRIL saw its open interest register 124 contracts for a LOSS of 79 contacts. We had 151 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED A VERY STRONG 72 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 7200 oz will  stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and they also negated a fiat bonus

 

 

May saw A LOSS of 236 contracts to stand at  7732…MAY WILL HAVE A VERY STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD OZ STANDING

 

we have 3 more reading days before first day notice and a huge 24.05 tonnes of gold is so far standing.

June saw a  GAIN OF 2443 contracts DOWN to 338,832

 

 

We had 99 notices filed today for 9900 oz

 

FOR THE  APRIL 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 99 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (31,541) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  APRIL. (124 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (99 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,156,600 OZ OR 98.18 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (31,541)x 100 oz + (124 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (99) x 100 oz which equals 3,156,600 oz standing OR 98.18 TONNES in this active delivery month which is  a great amount for gold standing for a APRIL. delivery month.

THIS GREATLY SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 42. TONES OF GOLD STANDING IN ANY MONTH

We gained 72 contracts OR an additional 7200 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX as these guys decided it best to look for metal on the this side of the pond, first before travelling to London..

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

322,144.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.02 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  508,78,.743  OZ OR 15.825  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 150.406 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 97.75 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  5,344,348.639 oz or 166.23  tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  322,144.443 oz (or 10.0200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
total weight of pledged:  508,781.703 oz or 15.825 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 4,835,566.9  (150.406 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  4,835566.9 (150.406 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  13,959,245.190 oz (434.19 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   19,303,593.829 oz 600.42 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   128.613 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  471.807 tonnes

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

April 28/2019

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3970 CONTRACTS FROM 143,299  DOWN TO 139,329 (AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . OUR STRONG OI COMEX LOSS TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR TINY 1 CENT INCREASE IN PRICING//MONDAY.  THE LOSS IN TOTAL OI (TWO EXCHANGES) OCCURRED WITH 1)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, 3)  SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AND SOME LONG LIQUIDATION OCCURRING WITH OUR SMALL SILVER GAIN IN PRICE. 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

.APRIL ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

THE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL HAS A TOTAL OPEN INTEREST OF 0 CONTRACTS, AND AS SUCH WE LOST 6 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 6 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL ADDITIONAL OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED CONTRACTS AS THEY LOOK FOR METAL ON THE THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

THE BIG CONTRACT OF MAY SAW ITS OI FALL  BY 7147  DOWN TO 1,062.

JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 44 CONTRACTS RISING TO 206.

 

 

We, today, had  0 notice(s) FILED  for nil, OZ for the APRIL, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

April 28/2019

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 63,159.76 oz
CNT
BRINKS
DELAWARE

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,457.03 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(0 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  832 contracts

4,160,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into CNT:  600,457.03 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.78% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/316.64 million

 

total customer deposits today: 600,457.03   oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

i Out of Brinks: 18,957.04 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 43,185.52 oz

iii) Out of Delaware: 1017.20 oz

 

 

total withdrawals;  63,159.76   oz

We had 2 adjustments: and all from the dealer to the customer:

from CNT:  46,959.000 oz

from JPMorgan:  2,009,403.408 oz

 

 

total dealer silver:  79.080 million

total dealer + customer silver:  316.64 million oz

 

 

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The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL 2020. contract month is represented by 6 contract(s) FOR 30,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 832 x 5,000 oz = 4,160,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL.(0) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL/2019 contract month: 832 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (0)- number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month.equals 4,160,000 oz.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL nil OZ  WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX..

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 59,530 CONTRACTS //

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 52,747 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 52,747 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 263 million  OZ  37.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO +1.01% ((APRIL 28/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO +0.69% to NAV:   (APRIL 28/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into POSITIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/ 1.01%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 15.61 TRADING 15.54///DISCOUNT 0.42

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.31 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.75//A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 5.85 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1048.31 TONNES

APRIL 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 23/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD UP $40.75 TODAY:; TWO HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A)A MONSTROUS  3.8 PAPER TONNES WERE ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY AND B) ANOTHER HUGE 9.07 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED LATE IN THE DAY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.46 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 7.9 PAPER TONNES TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.59 TONNES

APRIL 20//WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES TONNES..THE STRING OF 12 STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSITS ENDS..

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 4.10 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.69 TONNES/12TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 15//WITH GOLD DOWN $19.10 TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY; A STRONG 7.89 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1117.59 TONNES.//11TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD UP $23.55 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 15.51 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1009.70 TONNES//THIS IS THE 10TH STRAIGHT STRONG DEPOSIT//THIS IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE..THEY HAVE NO PHYSICAL GOLD IN THE TRUST..

APRIL 13//WITH GOLD UP $27.65 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 5.36 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 994.19 TONNES

APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $37.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A STRONG 2.92 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD//GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT..988.63 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $.60//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/;; A STRONG 1.45 TONNES WAS ADDED TO THE GLD/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 985.71 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $.30: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.26 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $32.00//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT INTO THE GLD; A HUGE 7.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT : 978.99 TONNES

APRIL 3//WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 3.22 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 971.97 TONNES

APRIL 2//WITH GOLD UP $31.80 TODAY: ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.75 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 968.75 TONNES

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70 TODAY: ANOTHER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 967.00 TONNES

MARCH 31//WITH GOLD DOWN $32.70//A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.84 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 964.38 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONNES

MARCH 27.WITH GOLD DOWN $16.40: A BIG  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD  A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.39 TONES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.54 TONES

MARCH 26//WITH GOLD UP $24.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.17 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.15 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.99 TONES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY////INVENTORY RESTS AT 935.98 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $67.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.80 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.99 TONNES..THIS PROVES THAT THE GLD IS A FRAUD AS LONDON SUSPENDED DELIVERY AS WELL AS ALL REFINERS.  THEY HAD NO WAY OF GETTING ANY PHYSICAL OZ INTO ITS INVENTORY//

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

APRIL 28/ GLD INV 1048.31 tonnes*

IN LAST 808 TRADING DAYS:   +101.97 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 708 TRADING DAYS;+276.95  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 28 APRIL 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: TWO SMALL  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: a) A WITHDRAWAL OF 373,000 OZ FORM THE SLV// b) A SECOND WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 24//WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.665 MILLION OZ

APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.891 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.665 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.865 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 410.774 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21//WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER ADDITION OF 1.398 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.639 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.797 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 414.038 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.3999 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 16/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15//WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV TWO HUGE DEPOSITS: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER 5.222 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 415.437 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14./WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF XXX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13//WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY;  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.155 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 408.536 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 60 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.84 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 402.381 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 8//WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 401.541 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.766 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 746,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.826 MILLION OZ

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 65 CENTS;  A SMALL CHANGE TODAY..A WITHDRAWAL OF .335 MILLION OZ TO PAY FOR FEES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 394.826 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 395.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.679 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.181 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 8.115 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV../INVENTORY RESTS AT 393.502  MILLION OZ//

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.369 MILLION OZ AND 2.239 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 385.387 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 100 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 375.779 MILLION OZ///

 

 

APRIL 28.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

412.826 MILLION OZ.

END

 

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.42/ and libor 6 month duration 0.89

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: – 1.53

GOLD SCARCE//CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN THEIR LEASES…

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.38%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.93

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -.45

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASE RATES/GOLD SCARCE//CENTRAL BANKS CALL IN THEIR GOLD LEASES

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Surges To New All Time Record Highs in Euros, Pounds and Most Currencies

Gold in EUR – Monthly Close – 10 Years

◆ Gold prices surged to new all time record highs in euros and pounds at 1,614/oz and £1,406/oz respectively on Friday due to concerns about the outlook for both the UK and EU economies and concerns about the outlook for both sterling and the single currency in an era of unprecedented economic and monetary risk.

◆ Growing fears of central bank currency debasement and government deficit spending globally on a scale never before seen in history is seeing investors diversify into finite physical gold.

◆ Gold prices rose to a more than seven-year high at $1,736/oz in dollars too prior to gold correcting lower in all currencies as futures market participants took profits.

Gold in EUR – 3 Days

◆ Gold surged to €1,614/oz (see chart above) as the single currency came under selling pressure as concerns deepen about Italy and other periphery nation’s banks and economies and due to increased risks to the euro and the monetary union.

◆ Gold surged to new record all time highs in sterling at £1,406/oz in pounds (see chart above) as the embattled pound continued to lose value versus gold due to concerns about the UK economy and the outlook for sterling.

Gold in GBP – 3 Days

◆ Strong safe haven demand for gold continues due to concerns about the outlook for the UK, EU and global economy, the unprecedented monetary response of the ECB, the BoE and the other central banks and growing concerns that national currencies will be devalued by governments in the coming months and years.

◆ Gold remains one of the best performing assets in 2020 year to date, having risen 12.8% in dollar terms, 16.5% in euro terms, 20% in pounds and by more in other currencies.

This outperformance is likely to continue as the pandemic and the government lockdown “pins” burst the massive global debt bubble.

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold prices end lower as easing coronavirus lockdowns spark optimism

Gold bars are flying from Perth Mint to New York to ease COMEX supply squeeze

Gold Buyers Are Forking Over Lofty $135 Premiums for U.S. Coins

Physical Gold Premiums Soar As Congressman Questions COMEX About a Default

U.S. economy faces historic shock, with 16% joblessness possible – Trump adviser

Oil plunges 25%, extending recent losses as storage fills

Shares up on lockdown easing hopes; oil drops further

The persistent gold and silver price illusion – Kim

Gold Will be Revalued Higher and How to Defend Your Wealth During Global Crisis → Rickards

“Yes It Will. The Only Question Is When” – WATCH HERE

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

27-Apr-20 1717.25 1714.95 1381.36 1380.19 1582.96 1581.18
24-Apr-20 1727.25 1715.90 1401.32 1391.59 1604.96 1589.09
23-Apr-20 1727.55 1736.25 1399.49 1405.84 1601.78 1608.64
22-Apr-20 1702.65 1710.55 1377.95 1388.28 1567.46 1576.44
21-Apr-20 1678.60 1682.05, 1328.16 1364.82 & 1548.00 1547.82
20-Apr-20 1684.95 1686.20, 1349.14 1355.70 & 1547.63 1551.98
17-Apr-20 1693.15 1692.55, 1362.48 1354.04 & 1564.47 1555.79
16-Apr-20 1717.85 1759.50, 1378.57 1382.91 & 1581.45 1589.06
15-Apr-20 1712.25 1718.65, 1367.92 1377.33 & 1566.02 1580.99
14-Apr-20 1715.85 1741.90, 1367.36 1383.07 & 1567.91 1588.26
09-Apr-20 1662.50 1680.65, 1339.48 1348.22 & 1529.00 1538.13
08-Apr-20 1649.05 1647.80, 1328.27 1330.27 & 1517.00 1513.14
07-Apr-20 1652.20 1649.25, 1344.23 1333.75 & 1519.53 1511.21
06-Apr-20 1636.60 1648.30, 1330.72 1341.06 & 1515.49 1526.66

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Mark O’Byrne

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Gold buyers are paying a lofty $135.00 for simple bullion USA coins.  For numismatic gold…. premiums: a lot lot more… (double eagles: going over 2800 usa/)

(Bloomberg)

Gold buyers are paying lofty $135 premiums for U.S. coins

 Section: 

By Justina Vasquez
Bloomberg News
Monday, April 27, 2020

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-27/gold-buyers-are-forki…

Retail investors can’t seem to get enough of gold during the coronavirus crisis, and they are willing to pay staggering amounts to get their hands on it.

Consumers who want to buy gold coins typically have to pay more than the per-ounce prices quoted on financial markets in London and New York. That premium has jumped to $135, more than tripling from two months ago, said Robert Higgins, chief executive officer at Argent Asset Group LLC in Wilmington, Delaware.

… 

“There has never been a time for American Gold Eagles at this premium level,” Higgins said in an interview, referring to the popular U.S. bullion coin.

The surge is being exacerbated by coronavirus-related lockdowns, which have led to a squeeze in the supply of coins and bars available for shipment around the globe. At the same time, bullion’s status as a haven is luring investors rattled by worldwide market and economic turmoil.

“Until the world catches up with the imbalance and gets back to a normal balance of supply and demand, the premiums will stay,” Higgins said.

Gold-coin premiums tracked by Certified Coin Exchange are at the highest levels in six years, data from the bourse show.

Last year, bar and coin demand fell by 20% to the lowest level since 2009, hurt by costlier prices that discouraged retail bullion buying globally, according to the World Gold Council. That began to reverse in 2020, with investors snapping up coins sold by the U.S. Mint in March at the fastest pace in over three years.

Higgins, a 40-year industry veteran, operates a wholesale business that typically deals with an average of 1 million to 1.5 million ounces of gold each month. That jumped to more than 6.5 million ounces in March as premiums surged, he said.

As some refiners of the metal resume partial operations, he expects market tightness to subside in coming weeks.

Mish International Monetary Inc., a dealer in precious metal bullion and coins, based in Menlo Park, California, has been selling gold coins at highly elevated levels for three to four weeks.

The company told customers Thursday it’s offering one-ounce coins in its inventory for a 7% premium, or at almost $1,851 an ounce based on Friday’s closing spot price of $1,729.60.

“It’s crazy,” said Mish President Robert Mish. “There is a factor in the market that many of the buyers do not trust the system anymore and want to get their metal in their hands for certain.”

end

iii) Other physical stories:

CONGRESSMAN MOONEY, questions the CFTC on the use of Ex. for physicals.  He repeats his unanswered questions whether the CFTC allows manipulative trading in gold and silver by the uSA government or official sectors like the BIS.

(zerohedge)

Physical Gold Premiums Soar To Highest Since Crimean Conflict As Congressman Questions COMEX

The gold market remains chaotic with physical (geographical) shortages, increasing physical demand, paper squeezes, retail interest soaring, and now congressmen raising concerns with regulators.

First some good news (ish) – The last few weeks have seen the huge premium for between COMEX futures and spot compress as Bloomberg reports that Australia’s largest gold refinery has ramped up production of one kilogram bars to ease the supply squeeze in the US. 

“We’re producing as many kilobars as we can, we’re probably churning out seven and a half tons of them a week at the moment and we are forward sold well into May,” Richard Hayes, chief executive officer of the Perth Mint, said in an interview.

“A very large portion of those kilobars are ending up as Comex deliveries.”

And the futures-spot premium has compressed (though remains rich to normal)…

Source: Bloomberg

The mint, which reopened a kilobar production line in response to the supply crunch, expects elevated demand to prove to be only a short-term issue.

“Arbitrage issues around the Comex will be short lived and I don’t see them lasting for months and months,” Hayes said.

“This is this is an unusual situation where you’ve got plenty of physical metal, it’s just in the wrong form and in the wrong place.”

This whole debacle and the COMEX changing rules for delivery prompted representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) – who has ostensibly continued where former Representative Ron Paul (R-TX) left off – to raise questions with the CFTC about his growing concerns about delivery defaults in gold and silver.

Dear Chairman Tarbert:

As you know, there have been significant stresses and delivery difficulties unfolding in the CFTC-regulated gold market.

In fact, the entities running the Comex and London markets hastily changed their rules last month to allow 400-ounce gold bars located in London to be substituted in satisfaction of CFTC-regulated contracts standing for delivery of 100-ounce gold bars in the U.S.

This remarkable new trans-oceanic mechanism appears, essentially, to have institutionalized the Exchange for Physical (EFP) emergency mechanism about which I raised concerns to you previously. Because there is apparently a dearth of gold and silver available for delivery in our country, use of this EFP mechanism to offload the physical demand to London had already become massive and routine.

Why is the Commission permitting large gold delivery liabilities in the U.S. to be so routinely transferred to London markets?

I am increasingly concerned about the rising risk of defaults in the U.S. gold and silver markets and a resulting loss of confidence in our markets. A major default in gold and/or silver could have profound monetary policy implications as well.

Furthermore, I ask for direct answers to two questions I posed previously. My questions (in italics) and your responses provided on January 28 are as follows:

1) Does the commission have jurisdiction over manipulative futures trading by the U.S. government or its brokers or agents or other governments?

“The CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over futures trading on trading facilities registered with the Commission as Designated Contract Markets.”

2) Is the commission aware of futures trading by the U.S. government, its brokers, or agents?

“Pursuant to Section 8 of the Commodity Exchange Act and except as otherwise specifically authorized, the Commission may not publish ‘data and information that would separately disclose the business transactions or market positions of any person and trade secrets or names of customers.’”

Both of my questions call for simple “Yes” or “No” answers. Direct answers to these questions should not violate Section 8 of the Commodity Exchange Act. Simply acknowledging trading by governments, or on behalf of governments, would not disclose business transactions or market positions.

Thank you, and I await your response

We won’t be holding our breath for a response that satisfies, but we do note that the Congressman’s concerns are much more widespread.

Not helping any physical demand is the fact that the US Mint recently halted all production (over COVID-19 contagion fears), despite soaring demand for gold coins…

Source: Bloomberg

As Everett Millman, a precious-metals specialist at Gainesville Coins in Florida, warns,

“The timing is awful, it’s going to exacerbate the supply shortage” in the coin market when demand is soaring.

And it is showing up dramatically in retail price premiums, as Bloomberg reportswhich have jumped to $135, more than tripling from two months ago, said Robert Higgins, chief executive officer at Argent Asset Group LLC in Wilmington, Delaware.

“There has never been a time for American Gold Eagles at this premium level,” Higgins said in an interview, referring to the popular U.S. bullion coin.

Source: Bloomberg

This is the greatest premium since the Crimea conflict sparked a massive safe haven bid in April 2014.

“Until the world catches up with the imbalance and gets back to a normal balance of supply and demand, the premiums will stay,” Higgins said.

Higgins, a 40-year industry veteran, operates a wholesale business that typically deals with an average of 1 million to 1.5 million ounces of gold each month. That jumped to more than 6.5 million ounces in March as premiums surged, he said.

This extreme physical premium fits with what the Perth Mint’s CEO concluded…

“For every coin we make, be it gold or silver, we could probably sell five or six of them,” he said.

“That strong demand will be a little longer-lasting, I expect, as people have been quite badly frightened by this whole Covid disaster.”

Meanwhile, SchiffGold.com’s Peter Schiff said that earnings reports roll in, and broadly disappoint, one group is set to do well – gold mines are literally ‘gold mines’.

Peter said it doesn’t surprise him that some companies are benefitting from coronavirus.

Obviously, if people aren’t going out and they’re staying in, maybe they’re spending money online that might otherwise have been spent through other vehicles. But of course, ultimately a lot of these consumers are just not going to have the money to spend. They’re going to run out of aid from the government, or the government money is going to run out of purchasing power due to inflation.”

Peter said he thinks the vast majority of companies will see substantial hits to their earnings. And it’s not just because of the pandemic. It’s also due to the recession that was going to start anyway.

Peter emphasized that government and central bank policy are at the root of the problem.

A lot of companies have been able to borrow cheap and then use the cash to buy back their own overpriced stocks. Many of these companies are now the recipient of bailout money, unfortunately. They should be allowed to fail so new management teams can step and clean house. Instead, we are perpetuating the management teams that made these reckless decisions. But of course, these decisions were made based on monetary policy that was being provided by the Fed, and the Fed is now doubling down on that failed policy.”

Peter said the only thing the market has going for it is the Fed.

Meanwhile, in order to prop up the market, the Fed has to destroy the purchasing power of the dollar, so what investors should be doing is buying gold stocks. Because gold and gold stocks will be the biggest beneficiaries of monetary policy.”

The host brought up the decline in some of the industrial metals like nickel and copper. Peter said precious metals are a totally different story.

They are a monetary alternative to fiat currencies that are being debased the world over, but particularly in the United States. So, I think when it comes to earnings, gold stocks are going to be among the few companies that see a huge boost to their earnings. In fact, they are benefitting from the reduction in energy prices because energy is a key cost when it comes to operating a gold mine. So, gold mines right now literally are gold mines, and I think investors are ignoring the potential.”

As Robert Mish, President of Mish International Monetary Inc – a dealer in precious metal bullion and coins, based in Menlo Park, California, who has been selling gold coins at highly elevated levels for three to four weeks – told Bloomberg:

It’s crazy…

There is a factor in the market that many of the buyers do not trust the system anymore and want to get their metal in their hands for certain.

The surge in gold demand is similar to the buying panic that has emptied stores of toilet paper. “When people think they can’t get something, they want it even more.”

Except in this case, there is a fundamental driver behind the demand – as Kyle Bass so eloquently noted 10 years ago:

“Buying gold is just buying a put against the idiocy of the political cycle. It’s That Simple”

And judging by the shrill calls for UBI, MMT, and negative rates in the US, that idiocy is just about to reach ’11’.

end
They have been trying to get out of the metal business for years.  If you take their liabilities, the operation would cost you one dollar.
(Reuters)
Scotiabank to close its metals business – sources ReutersApril 28, 2020
1:48 PM EDTLONDON — Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) told staff on Tuesday it would close its metals business, drawing the curtain on one of the most venerable names in precious metals trading, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.Scotia was for years the world’s biggest lender to the physical precious metals industry, with a history stretching to the founding in 1684 of London gold dealer Mocatta Bullion, which it bought in 1997.

Once a global player with more than 100 staff in offices from New York and London to India and Hong Kong, the bank sharply downsized the business in 2018 after a strategic review and an unsuccessful attempt to find a buyer.

But it remains one of the five banks that settle gold trades and one of 12 market makers that provide liquidity in the London market. It is also a participant in daily auctions that set a globally used gold benchmark price.

“Scotia had a global call with all its metals staff and said it was shutting down its metals business,” said one of the sources.

“The plan is to unwind the metals business,” said another.

A spokeswoman for Scotiabank declined to comment.

Sources said Scotia would not take on new business and would wind down existing activities by around the beginning of 2021. Some staff would be kept on over that period while others would be made redundant, they said.

Around 15 people worked in Scotia’s metals business, industry sources said, around three-quarters of them in precious metals and the remainder in industrial metals.

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0771/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0831   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 5.47 POINTS OR 0.19%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 295.82 POINTS OR 1.32%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 12.03 POINTS OR 0.06%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 99.92/Euro RISES TO 1.0885

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.63/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 10.75 and Brent: 19.93

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.46%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.65% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.87%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.11: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.17

3k Gold at $1709.90 silver at: 15.16   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 30/100 in roubles/dollar) 74.17

3m oil into the 10 dollar handle for WTI and 19 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.63 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9728 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0589 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.46%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.65% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.23%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.9880..

Futures Surge, Dollar Tumbles As Oil Swings Wildly

About one year ago, corporate profits didn’t matter and stocks would continue levitating day after day because “any minute now” Trump would complete a Phase 1 trade deal with China. Well, one year later, profits again don’t matter and probably never will again now that the Fed taken over capital markets (in fact, profits have been devastated and according to JPM won’t recover their 2019 levels until 2022), but stocks are again levitating, this time on optimism about the economy’s imminent reopening from the coronavirus pandemic.

U.S. stock index futures reversed early losses, and surged alongside European and Asian stocks on Tuesday, rising above 2,900 for the first time since March 8, ahead of a barrage of quarterly earnings reports, as investors are keenly looking at the safety and progress of reopening economies hit hard by the coronavirus-induced shutdowns.

Wall Street kicked off the week on a strong note Monday as several U.S. states allowed businesses to reopen after a near total halt in activity to contain the outbreak. Powered by a raft of U.S. monetary and fiscal stimulus, all three major stock indexes are now within 20% of their record closing highs, but analysts warn of further losses as economic data foreshadows a deep global recession. Consumer confidence figures for April due later in the day are expected to slide further from near three-year lows hit in March, as widespread production halts put millions of Americans out of work.

Southwest Airlines jump-started first-quarter reports for the day with its first quarterly loss in nine years, but shares rose 3.4% as it said its average daily cash burn will slow in the second quarter. Elsewhere, so far:

  • Caterpillar Inc (CAT) Q1 20 (USD): EPS 1.98 (exp. 1.68), Revenue -21% Y/Y at 10.64bln (exp. 10.92bln). Withdraws FY guidance due to COVID-19.
  • 3M Co (MMM) Q1 20 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.16 (exp. 2.03), Revenue 8.1bln (exp. 7.91bln); Withdraws FY20 guidance
  • Merck (MRK) Q1 2020 (USD): EPS 1.50 (exp. 1.34); revenue 12.1bln (exp. 11.46bln); lowers FY revenue range to USD 46.1-48.1bln (exp. 48.7bln); lowers FY GAAP EPS range to 4.12-4.32 (exp. 5.56)
  • Pfizer Inc (PFE) Q1 20 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.80 (exp. 0.73), Revenue 12.03bln (exp. 11.87bln). Reaffirms FY guidance for adj. EPS and revenue – not seen a significant disruption in its supply chain
  • HSBC Holdings slipped after adjusted profit slumped and the bank cautioned bad loan charges may climb to as much as $11 billion this year, the highest since the last financial crisis.
  • UBS gained after posting a jump in profit and expressing confidence it can withstand a surge in bad loans.

Google parent Alphabet, Ford Motor and Starbucks are among the high profile companies reporting after markets close.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index climbs to a session high, hitting a level not seen since March 11, while a gauge tracking energy shares extends gains after Brent crude futures pare losses and turn positive. SXXP advanced 1.4% as of 11:09 a.m. in London, with insurers, banks and energy shares gaining the most among sectors. The Stoxx oil & gas gained 2.5% as BP rose 1.4% after posting results, which Goldman Sachs described as “resilient.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also gained, led by finance and industrials, after rising in the last session. Most markets in the region were up, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gaining 1.2% and Thailand’s SET rising 0.9%, while Shanghai Composite dropped 0.2%. The Topix gained 0.1%, with YAC HD and Plant rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.2%, with Jiangsu Jiangnan High Polymer Fiber and Shangying Global posting the biggest slides.

Besides earnings, investors will look at policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank as well as earnings from some of the world’s biggest companies, among them Amazon.com, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft and Samsung Electronics. At the same time they’re monitoring infection rates across major economies and the ongoing discussions of how to restart activity.

On the virus front, China’s top scientists said the novel coronavirus will not be eradicated, joining a growing consensus that the pathogen will likely return in waves. New cases in Germany fell below 1,000 for the first time in more than five weeks. Italy reported the lowest levels of new infections in seven weeks and prepared to begin reopening. Spain announces its plan to relax the lockdown on Tuesday. The Trump administration issued a strategy to expand U.S. testing, including partnering with retail chains.

In FX, a gauge of the dollar fell a second day as a gradual easing of lockdown restrictions drew closer in Europe. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to the lowest in over 10 days and the greenback weakened against all Group-of-10 peers.

Norway’s krone led gains after oil’s rebound. Sweden’s krona advanced 1% against the dollar after the Riksbank refrained from adding further stimulus for now, while the market had priced in around 7bps worth of rate cuts. The Swiss franc fell to its lowest level versus the euro in four weeks and options traders see scope for more short-term losses. The New Zealand dollar halted a three-day gain as traders boosted bets for policy easing after Westpac Banking Corp. forecast that the central bank will cut its key rate to minus 0.5% in November. Bunds fluctuated and European peripheral bonds gained.

Oil prices recovered ground after another plunge; oil futures in New York had slumped below $11 a barrel as exchange-traded funds and indexes fled the volatility of nearby futures contracts, but recovered a chunk of their slide. earlier crude extended its slide to near $10 a barrel.

Expected data include wholesale inventories and consumer confidence. Caterpillar, Harley-Davidson, PepsiCo, Pfizer, UPS, Alphabet, and Starbucks are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 2% to 2,905.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 337.70
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 145.12
  • MXAPJ up 0.6% to 467.72
  • Nikkei down 0.06% to 19,771.19
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,449.15
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 24,575.96
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,810.02
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 31,984.40
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5,313.10
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 1,934.09
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to -0.435%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.0852
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 7.7 bps to 1.587%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.1 bps to 0.868%
  • Brent futures down 1.2% to $19.76/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,702.13
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 99.83

Top Overnight News

  • Spain and France, two of the countries hardest hit by the coronavirus, are set to spell out plans to ease lockdowns as Europe moves to loosen restrictions despite concerns that such steps could backfire
  • Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez plans to announce loosening measures after Tuesday’s weekly cabinet meeting, and France’s Prime Minister Edouard Philippe will present the government’s blueprint to the National Assembly
  • Chinese scientists say the novel coronavirus will not be eradicated, adding to a growing consensus around the world that the pathogen will likely return in waves like the flu
  • Global confirmed cases passed the 3 million mark. Italy reported the fewest new infections in seven weeks, while U.K. deaths dropped to the lowest since March. Hong Kong is preparing to reopen public facilities, and New Zealand emerged from almost five weeks of nationwide lockdown, offering a return to work for as many as half a million people. The World Health Organization’s director general warned the pandemic is far from over
  • The Federal Reserve expanded the scope and duration of the Municipal Liquidity Facility, a $500 billion emergency lending program for state and local governments enduring the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged Britons to stick with the lockdown that has helped slow deaths from coronavirus as his government plans safe ways to reboot the battered U.K. economy
  • The White House issued a strategy to expand U.S. testing for the coronavirus on Monday, accelerating President Donald Trump’s push to reopen the economy even as the nation’s outbreak approaches 1 million infections
  • Crude extended its slide below $11 a barrel after the biggest oil exchange-traded fund unexpectedly began selling all its holdings of the most active contract amid rapidly dwindling storage capacity

Asian equity markets were mixed as a deluge of earnings and continued oil rout offset the momentum from Wall St. where the major indices were underpinned by reopening efforts and ongoing stimulus measures. ASX 200 (-0.2%) swung between gains and losses with the index pressured by underperformance in the commodity-related sectors as oil prices suffered double-digit losses on continued demand concerns and after the USO announced to dump all its June contracts by mid-week in favour of later-dated contracts. The largest weighted banking sector also added to the indecision with NAB on the backfoot as it resumed trade post-earnings and after the completion of its AUD 3bln placement, although Westpac surged despite flagging a AUD 2.2bln impairment for H1. Nikkei 225 (U/C) was lacklustre as participants digested earnings releases, while Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) conformed to the choppy price action as focus turned to corporate updates and with participants kept tentative ahead of the blue chip banking names set to announce results this week beginning with HSBC which reported Q1 profit before tax fell nearly 50% Y/Y. Finally, 10yr JGBs were range-bound with prices restricted by resistance ahead of the 153.00 level and following the latest Rinban announcement in which the central bank upped its purchase intentions of 1yr-10yr JGBs but had recently reduced the frequency of purchases of 3yr-5yr maturities for next month.

Top Asian News

  • Debt Monetization Creeps Closer in Asia, Reshaping Bonds
  • China Merchants Mulls Taking $4 Billion Port Unit Private
  • Hong Kong Extends Quarantine for Arrivals From China to June 7
  • Steel Tycoon Seeks Reopening India Economy to Avoid Depression

European equities extend gains after a relatively flat open (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.8%) after a rather mixed APAC session, with sentiment skewed more towards the upside as the session goes underway. Bourses are mostly comfortable in the green, although the IBEX (+1.1%) sees underperformance on account of some large-cap stocks in the red – with Utility names weighing on the Spanish index. Elsewhere in the periphery, Italy’s FTSE MIB (+2.5%) continues to benefit after the country dodged a debt downgrade by S&P. Looking at sectors, Energy initially underperformoned but has since outpaced its peers to reside as a top performer amid the rebound in the energy complex. Financials outperform with the aid of higher yields and some more-upbeat earnings from regional banks. UBS (+5.7%) and Santander (+3.4%) trade firmer amid some bullish internals, although the former also saw improvements in Q1 pre-tax and Adj. pre-tax whilst highlighting high-quality credit exposure. On the flip side, HSBC (-0.5%) remains pressured as Q1 profits halved on increase loan loss provisions emanated from COVID-19. The bank also guides its FY20 to have materially lower profitability. Individual movers predominantly consist of other large-cap stocks post-earnings; BP (-1.9%) reported a 66% decline in Q1 earnings as it was hit by the plunge in energy prices – with the oil behemoth also anticipating a material impact in Q2 downstream from the pandemic. Novartis (+0.9%) has trimmed some of its opening gains but remains underpinned as top and bottom line topped estimates, with a favourable sales impact of USD 400mln expected from COVID-19. Aside from earnings, Wirecard (-19.7%) shares fell despite KPMG’s special report not identifying incriminating evidence for public allegation of balance sheet forgery – with downside potentially induced by the audit noting that not all data could be obtained that would have been required to proof revenue in these years as required data are primarily controlled by third parties. Furthermore, the Co. has delayed its earnings release and presser – originally due on April 30th. Finally, Lufthansa (-0.2%) was initially bolstered by reports that the German gov’t is to present a EUR 9bln rescue package for the Co. and the Swiss gov’t agreeing to a CHF 1.5bln support package via state-backed loans, although sources later downplayed an agreement on Germany’s aid, although separate reports noted that the Co. is said to be mulling insolvency proceedings as an alternative option.

Top European News

  • Riksbank Says Rate Cut May Yet Come, But Isn’t Needed Now
  • Austria to Relax Some Lockdown Measures as Virus Cases Decline
  • SAS Slashes 5,000 Jobs in Most Drastic Cut at a European Airline
  • Bayer Seeks Investor Patience as Roundup Cloud Persists

In FX, all taking cues from Central Bank and monetary authority directives, to an extent, as the Swedish Krona responds to relatively hawkish or less dovish than anticipated Riksbank guidance after rates were left on hold alongside current QE remits and a truncated repo path due to high levels of uncertainty over the outlook due to COVID-19. Some were looking for an increase in asset purchases or an extension in the schedule beyond the current end of September timeframe, and more than just another pledge to lower rates if required, so Eur/Sek has fallen from pre-policy pronouncement levels through the 55 DMA (10.8110) and Fib support (10.7999) on the way down to circa 10.7800, thus far. Meanwhile, the Yen paused at the psychological 107.00 mark again in wake of comments from Japan’s Ministry of Finance raising uncertainty about the currency’s value given stable interest rates despite high levels of Government spending, but Usd/Jpy subsequently breached the round number and supposedly strong technical levels just below amidst a stop-fuelled run to around 106.60 and eying a 50% retracement to 106.45 next, assuming 106.50 is pierced first. Conversely, the Kiwi has been undermined by an aggressive call from Westpac on RBNZ rates looking for -0.5% by this November vs market expectations via OIS pricing for just a 25 bp ease between now and Q1 next year. Hence, Nzd/Usd struggling to rebound much further above 0.6050 from sub-0.6000 overnight lows even though the Greenback is broadly softer.

  • GBP/CAD/AUD/EUR/CHF/NOK – Cable has peered over 1.2500 amidst general, albeit moderate Usd selling for month end from one rebalancing model exacerbated by the aforementioned Yen outperformance, but Sterling has also clawed back more losses against the Euro with the cross back down 0.8700 as the single currency is capped ahead of 1.0900 and the DXY finds a degree of underlying support at 99.5000. Elsewhere, the Loonie has derived momentum and encouragement from a firm rebound in crude alongside overall risk sentiment to reclaim 1.4000+ status and the Aussie eclipsed 0.6500 at one stage with favourable Aud/Nzd tailwinds through 1.0700 and touching 1.0750. The oil price revival has also helped the Norwegian Crown, Russian Rouble and Mexican Peso rally, while even the Swiss Franc has nursed some recent losses vs the Buck, though has extended its post-sight deposit retreat against the Euro to 1.0612 or so.
  • Riksbank leaves its Repo Rate unchanged at 0.0% as expected; decided to continue govt’ and mortgage bonds purchases up to the end of Sept-2020 at the current pace. The repo rate path is seen unchanged until February 2021, but does not rule out the possibility of the interest rate being cut at a later date. (Riskbank) In the post meeting press-conference, Governor Ingves largely reiterates remarks from the release stressing the willingness to act whenever is most appropriate; as has been clearly illustrated by the QE related intra-meeting action. (Newswires)

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures initially deteriorated , but have pared back a lion’s share of its losses in recent trade – with notable underperformance experienced in the US benchmark as downside was exacerbated by US Oil Fund unexpectedly began selling all its holdings of the WTI June contract against the backdrop of dwindling storage and decimated demand. Furthermore, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index announced that it will be moving all WTI exposure away from June. Desks note that the funds’ moves highlight a trend among market participants, with little-to-no demand in the contract amid fears of a repetition of deep negative prices seen heading into the May expiry. For reference, June WTI is set to expire on May 19th. “The move we are seeing suggests that the Jun-20 contract is going to become increasingly illiquid, and as a result, will likely suffer from increased volatility in the lead up to expiry”, ING writes. Meanwhile, eyes will be on today’s API release with attention on the Cushing figure as a gauge of when the WTI delivery hub will reach full capacity – “If we see similar builds to the last few weeks, we will likely reach full capacity at Cushing over the first half of May”, the Dutch bank says. WTI June trades lower by some 20% and printed a current base at USD 10.13/bbl (vs. high USD 13.18), whilst its Brent counterpart initially follows suit, albeit to a much lesser extent, with prices now in positive territory around the top of today’s USD 18.73-20.86/bbl range. Elsewhere, spot gold trades on either side of USD 1700/oz as the yellow metal balances risk appetite with a weaker buck. Copper nursed losses seen in APAC trade as sentiment attempts to make somewhat of a recovery.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $55.0b deficit, prior $59.9b deficit, revised $59.9b deficit
  • 8:30am: Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior -0.3%, revised -0.3%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.4%, prior -0.7%
  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%; CoreLogic CS 20- City YoY NSA, est. 3.19%, prior 3.08%
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 87, prior 120; Conf. Board Expectations, prior 88.2; Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 167.7
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. -42, prior 2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday was a relatively quiet day for markets ahead of a busy rest of the week with both the Fed and ECB meetings coming up, alongside a raft of earnings reports and China PMIs and the US ISM on Thursday. We’ll increasingly hear from countries about their slow lifting of restrictions (France and Spain today). It does feel that there is a lot of exhaustion with lockdowns in the West but as you’ll see in the CCD, although new cases and fatalities are generally falling the virus is not likely to be eradicated by the time restrictions start being lifted. So managing this exit strategy will be challenging and full of trade-offs.

For now there continues to be optimism in the market that we’re starting to see some light at the end of the lockdown tunnel. Global equities advanced further yesterday with the S&P 500 (+1.47%) finishing at its highest level since March 10th, while the STOXX 600 (+1.77%) was just 0.26 index points away from similar highs. The DAX (+3.13%) and the FTSE MIB (+3.09%) were obviously standouts. The VIX index fell for a 4th straight session to a 7-week low at 33.3 points. Furthermore, financial conditions are continuing to ease as well, with the Bloomberg index for the US now at its most accommodative in over 6 weeks. US Banks responded by rallying +5.50% as an industry, leading the S&P 500 yesterday. The only industry groups in the US lower on the day were Food Staples (-0.17%) and Household Products (-0.97%), which were – as one would expect – some of the best performers as virus fears took hold through March and early April. In Europe, every sector rose on the day, with Autos the best performer, up +4.92%. Notably, the second best performing sector on the day was Travel and Leisure stocks, up +4.75%. The sector has rallied +41.88% since the March lows, but remains down over 36% from the February highs.

A quick refresh of our screens this morning shows a slightly more mixed picture for markets in Asia with the Nikkei (-0.20%), Kospi (-0.06%) and ASX (-0.55%) down while the Hang Seng (+0.83%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.11%) have posted small gains. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.38% while June WTI prices are down a further -13% this morning to a little over $11 with Bloomberg reporting that the biggest oil ETF unexpectedly started selling all of its holdings in the contract. Brent crude oil prices are down a more muted -3.80% to $19.23 and spot gold prices are down -0.98% this morning.

In other news, the Fed lowered the population thresholds under which counties and cities would be eligible to sell short-term debt to the Municipal Liquidity Facility. The new levels are at least 500,000 for counties and 250,000 for cities, down from 2mn and 1mn respectively. Meanwhile, President Trump said at his press briefing that the US government is partnering with Walmart, CVS Health, Walgreens Boots Alliance, and other chain stores and diagnostics companies to put testing facilities in place nationwide and added that the White House plans to enough tests for all 50 states to screen at least 2% of their residents as the US gears up to come out of the lockdown. Elsewhere, the BoJ increased it’s purchases of JGBs in 1y-10y segment at a regular operation today after widening the indicative buying ranges for these zones for the next month. The European Commission is also expected to announce a series of capital relief measures today which is likely to include a relief on how banks calculate leverage ratio.

Back to markets yesterday where the risk-on move was also seen over in sovereign debt markets with a narrowing of southern European spreads. Italian BTPs outperformed in particular after Friday’s decision from S&P to keep their credit rating on hold at BBB. By the end of the session, 10yr BTP spreads over bunds had fallen by -9.9bps, continuing the moves that began last week, while those on Spanish (-8.3bps), Portuguese (-8.6bps) and Greek (-10.5bps) also narrowed. Core bonds lost ground however, with yields on 10yr Treasuries and bunds rising by +6.0bps and+2.0bps respectively.

In a blog post yesterday (link here), our rates strategists write that their positive bias on BTPs has been reinforced, thanks to a combination of (i) documented deviation from capital keys, (ii) the increasing probability of an OMT backstop if/when Italy activates an ESM ECCL, and (iii) a decrease in the probability of ratings downgrades in the near-term. That said, they note that the political situation in Italy is a risk to that view, as it could prevent or delay an ESM activation that would open the door to the OMT backstop.

Today, all eyes will move over to earnings releases, with a number of big names reporting later. By the time this hits your inbox we should have already got some of the European releases, while highlights from the US include Alphabet, Ford and Caterpillar, the latter being a traditional industrial bellwether. Worth keeping an eye out also to see if any more companies withdraw their guidance for the year thanks to the pandemic.

Not everything was buoyant yesterday and it was another dire day for oil yesterday following last Monday’s slump into negative territory. WTI closed down by -24.56% to $12.78/barrel yesterday as investors continued to react to the ongoing limits in storage capacity. While Friday sees the OPEC+ group’s agreement to reduce supply come into effect, this continues to be dwarfed by the effect that the global lockdowns are having on demand. In a sign of how volatile things have been for oil lately, this is the 7th occasion this month alone that WTI has moved by at least 10% in either direction, something that only happened one in the entire three years from 2017-19, and that was in the aftermath of the drone attack on Saudi oil facilities last September.

There wasn’t much in the way of data yesterday, though the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing outlook survey saw a further deterioration in April, with the general business activity index for April falling to -73.7 (vs. -75.0 expected), a record low. For those of you interested in hearing more about the US economy, which is set this year to undergo the sharpest contraction in GDP and the largest rise in unemployment since the war, you can listen to our latest podcast with Matthew Luzzetti, our chief US economist, who shares his insights. Click here to listen and subscribe on Spotify, Apple and Google podcasts.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include French consumer confidence for April as well as the CBI’s distributive trades survey from the UK. Meanwhile in the US, we’ve got the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading for April, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for April, along with March’s advance goods trade balance and the preliminary March wholesale inventories. From central banks, the ECB will be publishing their quarterly bank lending survey, while earnings highlights today include Alphabet, Merck & Co., Pfizer, PepsiCo, Starbucks, Caterpillar and Ford.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.47 POINTS OR 0.19%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 295.82 POINTS OR 1.22%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 12.03 POINTS OR 0.06%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .13%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0771 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0771 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0831 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/LAST NIGHT

Wow!!  It sure looks like the real unemployment rate in China is 20%.  A Chinese brokerage firm was forced to retract a report admitting this.  The world is now ready to shun Chinese products.

(zerohedge)

China Brokerage Forced To Retract Report Admitting Unemployment Rate Is 20%

Is China’s unemployment rate 4 times higher than the official one?

While we would be the last to accuse China of lying about anything – and Jack Dorsey would agree – a Chinese securities brokerage may have been foolish enough to admit the truth about China’s dismal economic reality… followed by promptly retracting an analyst report Monday that put the country’s real jobless rate above 20%, far greater than the official number.

According to an April 24 report by analysts from Shandong-based Zhongtai Securities, as many as 70 million people could have lost their jobs due to the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, translating into an actual unemployment rate of around 20.5%. The surge in unemployment, according to Bloomberg which saw the report, was due to the outsize impact of the pandemic on services and small businesses, which provide the bulk of job opportunities, they said.

The urban surveyed unemployment rate is obviously flawed in depicting the unemployment situationbecause of China’s special condition that there is a very large group of migrant workers and that the urban surveyed unemployment rate couldn’t truly reflect the employment situation of migrant workers,” the analysts admitted.

There were about 50 million fewer working migrant workers in the first quarter compared to last year, part of whom were not included in the survey, according to the 11-page original report.

The problem: if accurate, this means that China is not only lying about the source of the coronavirus, and the number of casualties, but also about its unprecedented fallout on the economy. And to preserve confidence, Beijing is pretending that tens of millions of workers are employed when they are, in fact, jobless.

The official unemployment rate was 5.9% in March, down from the “record-high” 6.2% in the first two months of the year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, but of course that number is fabricated just like everything else in China. Like every other economic “data” point, the employment reading has been goalseeked in a tight range of around 5% since the series was first introduced in 2016, similar to GDP which had barely budged more than 0.1% vs the consensus number until the coronacrisis.

In any case, telling the truth was a huge mistake because just like everything else, in mainland China it is verbotten for economists to critique the official job data, a topic of extremely political sensitivity to the Communist Party leadership, especially if the truth is that China is this close to the social disorder that results from tens of millions of jobless people.

And sure enough, almost immediately after the report was published, it became inaccessible according to Bloomberg. One of the report’s authors, Zhang Chen, said by phone that it had been retracted: “Zhongtai’s attitude is that we should go by the official figures for unemployment,” Zhang said, confirming indirectly that China is lying about the official data and will censor anyone who dares to tell the truth.

end
CHINA/TUESDAY MORNING
This is going to hurt China badly as Australia is being threatened over their “dangerous” investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.  What imbeciles
(zerohedge)

China Threatens Australia Over ‘Dangerous’ Investigation Into Coronavirus

China has threatened Australia with an economic hit if it doesn’t stop investigating the CCP’s handling of the coronavirus, according to Sky News.

Chinese Ambassador Cheng Jingye told the outlet on Monday that while China’s response may not have been “perfect,” Australia’s inquiry was “dangerous,” and could lead to Chinese consumers avoiding Chinese exports and travel.

So what is being done by the Australia side?” asked Cheng. “The proposition is a kind of teaming up with those forces in Washington and to launch a kind of political campaign against China.”

“The Chinese public is frustrated, dismayed and disappointed with what Australia is doing now,” said Cheng. “I think in the long term… if the mood is going from bad to worse, people would think ‘Why should we go to such a country that is not so friendly to China?’ The tourists may have second thoughts.

The parents of the students would also think whether this place which they found is not so friendly, even hostile, whether this is the best place to send their kids here,” Cheng continued (via the Daily Wire). “It is up to the people to decide. Maybe the ordinary people will say ‘Why should we drink Australian wine? Eat Australian beef?’

Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne hit back against the call for an independent inquiry, saying “Australia has made a principled call for an independent review of the COVID-19 outbreak, an unprecedented global crisis with severe health, economic and social impacts.”

“We reject any suggestion that economic coercion is an appropriate response to a call for such an assessment, when what we need is global co-operation.”

According to Sky News reporter Tom Connell, Australian politicians are in agreement over the need for a “global independent” investigation into the Wuhan coronavirus, adding that “China’s response, of course, has been to push back and the stakes did increase today from the Chinese ambassador in this interview with the Australian Financial Review.”

China’s opposition to an Australian investigation comes after the United States reportedly launched a “full-scale investigation” into whether COVID-19 escaped from a biolab in Wuhan, China, according to Fox News.

According to the report, US intelligence operatives are gathering information regarding the laboratory and the initial outbreak of the virus, which was found in a horseshoe bat specimen collected by scientists from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in 2013 in a cave in Yunnan, China.

END

CHINA/USA

Senator Tom Cotton is now calling for the complete ban on Chinese students studying science in the uSA.  If they want to study Shakespeare..that is alright but not science or technology.

(zerohedge)

 

Sen. Tom Cotton Calls To Ban Chinese Students From Studying Science In The US

For the most part, Senator Tom Cotton has been on the ball: he was one of the first to raise objections about how China has reported their coronavirus data and was calling for investigations and accountability months before others in government even knew that the virus was a threat to the U.S.

Cotton is now calling for Chinese students to no longer be able to study science and technology in the U.S. and also claims that China is likely trying to steal a vaccine from the U.S. 

On Fox News Sunday morning, Cotton said: “In the middle of a pandemic, what’s the most valuable intellectual property in the world? It’s the research that our great laboratories and life science companies are doing on prophylactic drugs, therapeutic drugs, and ultimately a vaccine.” 

He continued: “So I have little doubt that the Chinese intelligence services are actively trying to steal America’s intellectual property as it relates to the virus that they unleashed on the world, because, of course, they want to be the country that claims credit for finding those drugs or finding a vaccine, and then use it as leverage against the rest of the world.”

He referred to the fact that U.S. education has trained “so many of the Chinese Communist Party’s brightest minds” as a scandal, according to the NY Post.

Cotton continued: “So I think we need to take a very hard look at the visas that we give the Chinese nationals to come to the United States to study, especially at the post-graduate level in advanced scientific and technological fields.”

“If Chinese students want to come here and study Shakespeare and the Federalist Papers, that’s what they need to learn from America. They don’t need to learn quantum computing and artificial intelligence from America,” he concluded.

Cotton has said that the CCP is “both criminally negligent and incompetent” in reacting the virus, which has now spread across the world.

You can watch his full appearance with Maria Bartiromo here:

END
CHINA/USA/TUESDAY MORNING
CHINA  is getting more warlike by the day:  They now warn USA to halt military operations in the South China Sea to which they will ignore.
(zerohedge)

Chinese Warns US To Halt Military Operations In South China Sea

The Chinese military is closely monitoring a US Navy guided-missile destroyer transiting the South China Sea on Tuesday (April 28).

Global Times

@globaltimesnews

When US destroyer Barry trespassed into China’s territorial waters off the Xisha Islands on Tue, the PLA Southern Theater Command coordinated with naval and air forces to follow its course; they identified the ship, warned and expelled it:PLA Southern Theater Command spokesperson

View image on Twitter

The People’s Daily, quoting senior colonel Li Huamin, spokesperson for the Chinese Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command, said a US warship entered the “territorial waters off Xisha Islands in the South China Sea without China’s permission. The Southern Theater Command of PLA deployed air and navy forces to monitor and verify the ship, and warned it to leave.”

People’s Daily, China

@PDChina

A US warship on Tue entered the territorial waters off Xisha Islands in the South China Sea without China’s permission. The Southern Theater Command of PLA deployed air and navy forces to monitor and verify the ship, and warned it to leave, according to Senior Colonel Li Huamin.

View image on Twitter

Bloomberg reports that the “Chinese navy followed and expelled it [US Navy warship],” citing a PLA Daily report.

Huamin went on to say, the US Navy violated “relevant international law and was a serious infringement of China’s sovereignty.”

CGTN News said China urged the US to focus on the COVID-19 pandemic unfolding across the country rather than conduct freedom of navigation missions in the South China Sea.

The PLA has spent the last 3 to 4 weeks ramping up military operations in the highly contested waters as the pandemic sweeps across the world.

The US blasted China last week for its “bullying behavior” in the region. The US State Department recently said China is taking advantage of the region’s focus on the COVID-19 pandemic to “coerce its neighbors.”

We have also noted the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has conducted regular flight patterns around Taiwan.

China appears to be sending the world, or mainly the West, an important message that its military strength, which was put on hold for several months because of the virus, is back on track.

China sailed its only aircraft carrier, called Liaoning, around Taiwan’s east coast earlier this month, enraging Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and Western powers. 

China’s aggression in the South China Sea comes as four US Navy aircraft carriers — the USS Theodore Roosevelt, the USS Ronald Reagan, the USS Carl Vinson, and the USS Nimitz — have reported cases of coronavirus, crimping their operations.

Things are certainly heating up again in the South China Sea. This is an area to monitor for future flare-ups. 

END
 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU/EUROPEAN BANKS

A lot bigger than most expected..European banks brace for a default tsunami as loan losses soar on their books

(zerohedge)

Biggest European Banks Brace For Default Tsunami As Loan Losses Soar

After a dismal first quarter for US banks which saw a surge in loan loss reserves, if not nearly enough to offset the default wave that is coming...

it was the turn of Europe’s mega banks to “open the kimono” so to speak, and what they revealed was not pretty.

On Tuesday morning, European banking giants HSBC Holdings and Banco Santander,took the biggest hits so far among European banks struggling to contain the impact of the coronavirus on their loan books, with the U.K.-based lender expecting as much as $11 billion of damage this year because of the outbreak.

HSBC slashed its first-quarter profit in half on Tuesday after reserves for bad loans surged fivefold – similar to the increase in provisions recorded at JPMorgan – prompting Europe’s largest bank to deliver a stark warning on the deep and lasting impact of coronavirus on the financial sector.

Loan provisions jumped 420% to $3BN, on track to hit the highest annual level since the financial crisis, as the bank prepared for a flood of bankruptcies and defaults caused by global lockdown measures to control the pandemic.

A large chunk of the loan losses were blamed on a single “corporate exposure in Singapore”,which the bank said was “the primary driver” of a $700MM increase in expected loan losses in the region. As the FT previously reported, HSBC has the biggest known exposure to the previously discussed Singapore oil trading giant Hin Leong at $600MM, which has filed for bankruptcy and is currently under police investigation for fraud.

Unlike US banks – who were notoriously shy about disclosing future loan loss reserve plans and rather conservative in their loss provisions as the six largest US lenders increased first-quarter loan provisions by a combined $25.4bn — a year-on-year rise of 350% – HSBC execs had not problem cautioning that this was just the beginning, with provisions set to hit $7BN to $11BN by the end of the year, causing “materially lower profitability” in 2020. To preserve liquidity, HSBC has already suspended its dividend, reducing expenses and slashing the bonus pool by a third.

Still, HSBC’s huge increase in provisions was more severe than its American rivals, with the six largest US lenders increasing first-quarter loan provisions by a combined $25.4bn — a year-on-year rise of 350 per cent.

“Loan losses are larger-than-expected but HSBC usually errs on the side of conservatism,” said Ronit Ghose, an analyst at Citigroup. “Business performance and a strong capital level is reassuring” he added, referring to the bank’s core CET1 ratio of 14.6 per cent, among the strongest of any of the world’s largest lenders.

The dismal outlook underlines the challenge facing new HSBC CEO Noel Quinn: as the FT notes, the crisis has already forced him to delay what he has described as one of the “deepest restructurings” in HSBC’s 155-year history. This saw it strengthen its focus on the lender’s pivot to Asia — where it makes the majority of its earnings — and shrink less profitable operations in Europe and the US.

There was a silver lining, with the bank “seeing some encouraging signs of recovery in Asia . . . but as the rest of the world enters its crisis, China will not be immune from the impact of falling global demand” as “The outlook for world economies in 2020 has substantially worsened in the past two months.”

Last week, Credit Suisse saws its loan loss provisions surge by 600% albeit from a smaller base, while Italy’s UniCredit set aside an additional €900m for the first quarter. On Tuesday UBS increased provisions by a factor of 268 (1,240%), also from a lower base, while Santander posted an additional €1.6bn of Covid-19 related reserves. Santander CEO Jose Antonio Alvarez said in an earnings call that the situation is “workable” if there’s a relatively rapid recovery in the global economy as the lockdowns ebb.

“We are well prepared to face the headwinds we’re going to suffer in the coming quarters,” Alvarez said on a conference call Tuesday after the bank reported net income for the first three months plunged 82% because of its provisions.

“There are difficult times ahead,” said Nicholas Hyett, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “If conditions get worse from here provisions for bad loans will increase, and together with credit downgrades that will eat into capital reserves.”

end

Headline from Germany after opening up their country

Coronavirus update: German infection rate ticks higher after reopening moves, offers lesson to U.S. governors

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/USA/JORDAN VALLEY/PALESTINE

Trump to give the green light for Israel to annex Jewish settlements in the Jordan valley. The Palestinians will not be happy so expect another infitada.

(zerohedge)

US To Give Israel ‘Green Light’ To Annex Jordan Valley In 2 Months: Netanyahu

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he expects that the United States will soon approve Israel’s move to annex parts of the West Bank during comments made Sunday while discussing Trump’s “deal of the century” peace plan. He projected this will happen in a mere two months.

“President Trump pledged to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Jewish communities there and in the Jordan Valley,” Netanyahu said.

“A couple of months from now I am confident that that pledge will be honored,” he told the European Commission for Israel, a pro-Israeli Christian group in Europe during a video call.

 

Image via AFP

Last week Netanyahu signed a power-sharing agreement with leader of the centrist Blue and White party Benny Gantz to finally form a unity government after a year of multiple gridlocked elections. 

At the same time the prime minister announced July 1 as the date to formally start cabinet discussions for extending Jewish settlements further into the West Bank as well as outright annexation of the Jordan Valley area

According to the Netanyahu-Gantz agreement, the drastic expansions plan must be backed by Washington to take effect. The prime minister’s Sunday remarks emphasized Trump’s peace deal rolled out in January as the foundation on which the West Bank expansion plan is based.

Of course, Palestinians have refused to be part of the so-called ‘deal of the century’ and have repeatedly pointed out they weren’t even invited to the table. Surrounding Arab nations have also condemned the plan.

Should Israeli annexation indeed move forward by this summer, as Netanyahu envisions, it could potentially unleash protests and violence on the level of a third Intifiada. Palestinian Authority leaders as well as Hamas have vowed that such an extensive new Israeli land grab will be resisted by call costs.

END
SYRIA/TURKEY
“Oil tanker” laden with explosives is detonated in Northern Syria (occupied by Turkey).  It killed at least 34 people and that caused oil to spike a little
(zerohedge)

Oil Spikes After Bomb-Laden Tanker Truck Detonates In Northern Syria, Killing At Least 34

A massive blast has ripped through a crowded commercial hub in the Northern Syrian city of Afrin along the Turkish border.

Turkish state media has reported at least ten civilians killed after a bomb-laden fuel tanker truck exploded. Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency called it a “terror attack” carried out by unknown assailants. Subsequent updated reports said there are at least 34 dead, with the death toll expected to rise as emergency responders battle the resulting blaze.

Charles Lister

@Charles_Lister

UPDATE: 34 dead & 30+ wounded in today’s bombing in .

Locals now suspect it was a truck/tanker loaded with explosives, which detonated near a fuel station.

Most of the dead appear to have burned to death. Horrendous.

View image on Twitter

Local reports say scores are among the wounded, with Syrian opposition media group the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) describing “The explosion was caused by the detonation an IED [improvised explosive device] on the road to Turandah, which caused material damage.”

Kurdish regional media cited a source in Afrin who said further “the blast caused a massive fire at the city’s main bazaar.” The attack may have targeted a fuel station in order to create maximum impact, according to early reports. 

The scene is utterly horrific (WARNING: very graphic):

t.tenkoğlu🇹🇷@2020ntk

Bu nedir ya siz nasıl bir şerefsizsiniz

Embedded video

Given international tickers and headlines, including Reuters, described that it was a massive “oil tanker” blast in Afrin – which it should be noted is a completely landlocked city currently occupied by Turkish armed forces – oil prices apparently spiked on the news.

And given the liquidity issues, June is dominating the price volatility intraday…

Developing…

end

6.Global Issues

Michael Every..

 

Rabo: Pelosi’s Stunning Proposal “Shows How Bad Things Are Right Now Out There”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

It was another risk-off day in Asia with stocks generally down and oil prices most decidedly so. WTI was trading at USD10.89 at the time of writing when it started the year at around USD60, and Brent at USD18.89 when it began around USD64. Such is the real damage still being done by the virus regardless of New Zealand tentatively going back to work.

Work should be on our minds today. Bloomberg reports a Chinese brokerage published, and then retracted, a report saying that the national unemployment rate was now 20.5%, over three times what the official measure says, which is 5.9%. This was seen as the result of a collapse in services and small businesses, and certainly fits the pattern unfolding elsewhere absent highly-regulated labour markets. The US will likely have seen a cumulative 30 million jobless claims this week in just over a month a half; and Thailand is talking about 7 to 10 million unemployed in a country with a population a fifth of the size and a traditional (accurate) unemployment rate of around 1%. Meanwhile Singapore, who a while back was being held up as a supreme example to us all on virus-fighting, has seen its biannual MAS Macroeconomic Review expect job losses and wage cuts “which will bear the brunt of the labour market adjustment in the near term.Won’t that be good for consumption and oil demand!

Back in the US(SR) we also had another remarkable political development – with no bleach involved. House Speaker Pelosi, who recently made a video to show how tough it is being under lockdown at home with a USD24,000 fridge packed with ice-cream, yesterday said the following on the next US stimulus package: “Let’s see what works, what is operational and what needs attention…Others have suggested a minimum income, a guaranteed income for people. Is that worthy of attention now? Perhaps so.

In short, in the same week we get a slew of key central bank meetings from banks who are already at zero or below, and on the same day the Bloomberg market chat is talking about who in Asia is doing outright debt monetisation vs. massive QE, and who globally will have to do yield curve control too, the US Overton window is perhaps moving towards Universal Basic Income (UBI). THAT, along with oil, shows how bad things are right now out there.

Of course, we are already seeing the previously unthinkable become reality – the UK government paying private-sector wages, for example. So there are lots of seemingly crazy ideas like ‘green eggs’ being served up already. Yet now we are perhaps to see the Speen-HAM-land to go with it.

Why, beyond an abiding love of Dr Seuss, do I say this? First, because as just noted it is a sign of how terrible things are that this idea is emerging at all: it’s a desperately bearish indicator. Second, because, for those who haven’t heard this spiel before, Polanyi in ‘The Great Transformation’ details how we have already tried this policy and it is terrible: it’s a desperately bearish indicator if introduced. Which perhaps one can no longer rule out by chanting:

“I do not like green eggs and ham, ‘cos I am a Republican

I will not back them in the House; I do not wish them for my spouse

I will NOT vote green eggs and ham!”

Polanyi details the social devastation created in the UK by the ending of feudalism and the introduction of a market economy, free labour market, and industrialisation. In doing so, the poor lost access to common land which had for centuries provided shelter and food; there was official consternation that more and more paupers were suddenly appearing in towns and villages across the country; few could make the connection as to why it was happening in the face of so much progress. (A hat-tip to Henry George there, for those who notice.) In order to maintain social order and save the young market economy, as well as to salve Christendom’s conscience, the Speenhamland legislation was introduced in 1795. This provided “subsidies in aid of wages”, which was tied to the cost of a loaf of bread. Specifically, it meant that a family would get the equivalent of four loaves of bread a week regardless of whether they worked or not. In today’s far wealthier US economy we might argue this would be the equivalent of USD250 a week – though that is a purely arbitrary figure of course. Surely this is bullish for markets?

Look around you at the vestiges of the prevailing pre-Covid political-economy with its meagre real wage gains for most workers, cheer-leading of income-slashing ‘disruption’, subsistence ‘gig’ jobs, and widespread sluggish productivity growth; add in massive unemployment due to Covid; splash a dash of ‘Singapore’-style wage cuts; throw in central banks now making UBI politically possible; and consider that the alternative recipe is a radical combination of high state investment and industrial policy and re-regulation that will have to mean further deglobalisation. Do all that and say we won’t be trying to serve the same Green Eggs and Speenhamland once again – and all choking on it as a result. Bullish this is not.

“Do you like green eggs and Speenhamland?

I do not like them Uncle-Sam-I-am.

I would not like them here or there; I would not like them anywhere.

I do NOT like green eggs and Speenhamland.”

end

end

A good analysis of what to expect in the coming months

(courtesy Nouriel Roubini)

 

“No Happy Ending For You” – Roubini Explains The Coming Greater Depression Of The 2020s

Authored by Nouriel Roubini via Project Syndicate,

After the 2007-09 financial crisis, the imbalances and risks pervading the global economy were exacerbated by policy mistakes. So, rather than address the structural problems that the financial collapse and ensuing recession revealed, governments mostly kicked the can down the road, creating major downside risks that made another crisis inevitable. And now that it has arrived, the risks are growing even more acute.

Unfortunately, even if the Greater Recession leads to a lackluster U-shaped recovery this year, an L-shaped “Greater Depression” will follow later in this decade, owing to ten ominous and risky trends.

The first trend concerns deficits and their corollary risks: debts and defaults. The policy response to the COVID-19 crisis entails a massive increase in fiscal deficits – on the order of 10% of GDP or more – at a time when public debt levels in many countries were already high, if not unsustainable. Worse, the loss of income for many households and firms means that private-sector debt levels will become unsustainable, too, potentially leading to mass defaults and bankruptcies. Together with soaring levels of public debt, this all but ensures a more anemic recovery than the one that followed the Great Recession a decade ago.

A second factor is the demographic time bomb in advanced economies. The COVID-19 crisis shows that much more public spending must be allocated to health systems, and that universal health care and other relevant public goods are necessities, not luxuries. Yet, because most developed countries have aging societies, funding such outlays in the future will make the implicit debts from today’s unfunded health-care and social-security systems even larger.

A third issue is the growing risk of deflation. In addition to causing a deep recession, the crisis is also creating a massive slack in goods (unused machines and capacity) and labor markets (mass unemployment), as well as driving a price collapse in commodities such as oil and industrial metals. That makes debt deflation likely, increasing the risk of insolvency.

A fourth (related) factor will be currency debasement. As central banks try to fight deflation and head off the risk of surging interest rates (following from the massive debt build-up), monetary policies will become even more unconventional and far-reaching. In the short run, governments will need to run monetized fiscal deficits to avoid depression and deflation. Yet, over time, the permanent negative supply shocks from accelerated de-globalization and renewed protectionism will make stagflation all but inevitable.

A fifth issue is the broader digital disruption of the economy. With millions of people losing their jobs or working and earning less, the income and wealth gaps of the twenty-first-century economy will widen further. To guard against future supply-chain shocks, companies in advanced economies will re-shore production from low-cost regions to higher-cost domestic markets. But rather than helping workers at home, this trend will accelerate the pace of automation, putting downward pressure on wages and further fanning the flames of populism, nationalism, and xenophobia.

This points to the sixth major factor: de-globalization. The pandemic is accelerating trends toward balkanization and fragmentation that were already well underway. The United States and China will decouple faster, and most countries will respond by adopting still more protectionist policies to shield domestic firms and workers from global disruptions. The post-pandemic world will be marked by tighter restrictions on the movement of goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information. This is already happening in the pharmaceutical, medical-equipment, and food sectors, where governments are imposing export restrictions and other protectionist measures in response to the crisis.

The backlash against democracy will reinforce this trend. Populist leaders often benefit from economic weakness, mass unemployment, and rising inequality. Under conditions of heightened economic insecurity, there will be a strong impulse to scapegoat foreigners for the crisis. Blue-collar workers and broad cohorts of the middle class will become more susceptible to populist rhetoric, particularly proposals to restrict migration and trade.

This points to an eighth factor: the geostrategic standoff between the US and China. With the Trump administration making every effort to blame China for the pandemic, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s regime will double down on its claim that the US is conspiring to prevent China’s peaceful rise. The Sino-American decoupling in trade, technology, investment, data, and monetary arrangements will intensify.

Worse, this diplomatic breakup will set the stage for a new cold war between the US and its rivals – not just China, but also Russia, Iran, and North Korea. With a US presidential election approaching, there is every reason to expect an upsurge in clandestine cyber warfare, potentially leading even to conventional military clashes. And because technology is the key weapon in the fight for control of the industries of the future and in combating pandemics, the US private tech sector will become increasingly integrated into the national-security-industrial complex.

A final risk that cannot be ignored is environmental disruption, which, as the COVID-19 crisis has shown, can wreak far more economic havoc than a financial crisis. Recurring epidemics (HIV since the 1980s, SARS in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, MERS in 2011, Ebola in 2014-16) are, like climate change, essentially man-made disasters, born of poor health and sanitary standards, the abuse of natural systems, and the growing interconnectivity of a globalized world. Pandemics and the many morbid symptoms of climate change will become more frequent, severe, and costly in the years ahead.

These ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair. By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order. But any happy ending assumes that we find a way to survive the coming Greater Depression.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil/Last night

Oil plummets again last night especially the June Brent. May Brent  goes off the table this Thursday.  We may get a repeat of what happened in the WTI  April contract.

Crude Carnage Continues Across Asia As Another Futures Contract Roll Looms

Following last week’s bloodbathery in WTI as its May contract expired and the biggest oil ETF (US-Oh!) wreaked havoc between spot and futures markets, it appears we are set for deja vu all over again this week – except this time it’s the Brent contract that may suffer.

“Some of this downward pressure particularly in the June contract is an increasing lack of liquidity,” said John Kilduff, a partner at hedge fund Again Capital LLC.

This is not coming only from the USO, but also due to brokerage firms, like Marex Spectron and TD Ameritrade, restricting client’s abilities to add new positions to certain crude contracts, according to Kilduff.

“It’s going to exacerbate the whole marrying of the June contract with the over supplied physical conditions and the lack of storage,” Kilduff said.

As Bloomberg notes, With the Brent contract for June settlement expiring Thursday,any contracts that haven’t been closed out by then will be cash settled at a price set by the Intercontinental Exchange based on cash sales of North Sea crude on the day. Right now, physical prices are trading well below futures – Dated Brent was $16.01 a barrel on Friday.

Source: Bloomberg

But it appears the unwinds in US-Oh! are also weighing more on the heavier-weighted (in the ETF) WTI contract – most notably June…

…which is down 15% further after settlement today, trading back at a $10 handle…

As a reminder, the ETF has changed its investment policy five times in the last two weeks, as shown in the following chart which depicted the ETF’s holdings as of Friday’s close:

 

Source: Bloomberg’s Laura Cooper

It also warned investors its valuation may deviate significantly from the underlying oil price, in effect acknowledging that it’s momentarily less focused on the price of WTI crude.

“While it is USO’s expectation that at some point in the future it will be able to return to primarily investing in the Benchmark Futures Contract or other similar futures contracts of the same tenor based on light, sweet crude oil, there can be no guarantee of when, if ever, that will occur,” it said in the filing, adding that USO investors “should expect that there will be continued deviations between the performance of USO’s investments and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, and that USO may not be able to track the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract or meet its investment objective.”

All of which suggests we have crossed the eye of the hurricane as Goldman expects the market to test global storage capacity in the next 3-4 weeks – unlike WTI which was merely a Cushing event – which will likely create substantial volatility with more spikes to the downside until supply finally equals demand, as with nowhere to store the oil, supply has no other option but to be shut-in down in-line with the expected demand losses.

Alternatively, we could see another “Monday massacre” with producers of oil willing to pay buyers to take physical possession right around the time all global capacity is full, unless of course US shale producers drastically cut output in the coming days, not weeks.

end
Oil /Tuesday morning
Global capacity is getting full and we may see another “Monday massacre”.  This time it will be worse as there is just nowhere to put the new oil coming out of the ground
(zerohedge)

Crude Chaotic Again As Negative Price Fears Spark Dramatic Index/ETF Shifts

Since we showed the renewed crash in the oil complex overnight, crude prices have roller-coastered dramatically after amajor index tracked by billions of dollars in funds bailed out of near-term contracts for fear prices may turn negative again.

June futures fell over 21% in New York before paring most of the decline, only to collapse back to the lows overnight… and drag the rest of the curve with it…

S&P Dow Jones said it will roll all of its West Texas Intermediate contracts for June into July on Tuesday, due to the risk that the nearer contract will go negative.

Additionally, as we noted previously, the United States Oil Fund LP is also selling all of its WTI June contracts, while several other ETFs have said they will exit near-term contracts and buy later ones.

“Some of this downward pressure particularly in the June contract is an increasing lack of liquidity,” said John Kilduff, a partner at hedge fund Again Capital LLC.

This is not coming only from the USO, but also due to brokerage firms, like Marex Spectron and TD Ameritrade, restricting client’s abilities to add new positions to certain crude contracts, according to Kilduff.

“It’s going to exacerbate the whole marrying of the June contract with the over supplied physical conditions and the lack of storage,” Kilduff said.

As a reminder, the ETF has changed its investment policy five times in the last two weeks, as shown in the following chart which depicted the ETF’s holdings as of Friday’s close:

 

Source: Bloomberg’s Laura Cooper

It also warned investors its valuation may deviate significantly from the underlying oil price, in effect acknowledging that it’s momentarily less focused on the price of WTI crude.

“While it is USO’s expectation that at some point in the future it will be able to return to primarily investing in the Benchmark Futures Contract or other similar futures contracts of the same tenor based on light, sweet crude oil, there can be no guarantee of when, if ever, that will occur,” it said in the filing, adding thatUSO investors “should expect that there will be continued deviations between the performance of USO’s investments and the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, and that USO may not be able to track the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract or meet its investment objective.”

All of which suggests we have crossed the eye of the hurricane as Goldman expects the market to test global storage capacity in the next 3-4 weeks – unlike WTI which was merely a Cushing event – which will likely create substantial volatility with more spikes to the downside until supply finally equals demand, as with nowhere to store the oil, supply has no other option but to be shut-in down in-line with the expected demand losses.

Alternatively, we could see another “Monday massacre” with producers of oil willing to pay buyers to take physical possession right around the time all global capacity is full, unless of course US shale producers drastically cut output in the coming days, not weeks.

Meanwhile, retail investors keep getting crushed, and with USO hitting new all time lows every day, the number of Robin Hood longs is hitting new all time highs.

end
Picture is worth a thousand words:

Red dots represent fully loaded oil tanker ships “stranded” at sea due to no global demand for oil – approx cost per day per ship is $30,000/-

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

AFGHANISTAN/USA/CORONAVIRUS

Trump now wants all of his troops out of Afghanistan as they except over 1 million cases ..the virus is spreading rapidly

(zerohedge)

 

Trump Wants All US Troops Immediately Out Of Afghanistan Due To Coronavirus

It appears the coronavirus pandemic may have provided the leverage President Trump needs to finally get all American troops out of the over eighteen-year quagmire in Afghanistan.

A new report this week by NBC has cited multiple senior officials to say the president “complains almost daily” that the US still has troops in Afghanistan, and that they are at risk for the spread of coronavirus.

According to NBC: “His renewed push to withdraw all of them has been spurred by the convergence of his concern that coronavirus poses a force protection issue for thousands of U.S. troops in Afghanistan and his impatience with the halting progress of his peace deal with the Taliban, the officials said.”

 

President Trump and the first lady watch as the remains of an American pilot killed in Afghanistan are transferred at Dover Air Force Base in November 2019. Image: Reuters

The historic peace deal signed between the US and Taliban at the end of February was based on a roadmap that would see the complete withdrawal of US and NATO troops from the country 14 months from the signing. It also called for a near-term massive US troop reduction to 8,600 within 135 days of signing – contingent on the Taliban’s fulfillment of its commitments under the agreement.

Trump is not satisfied with the progress, and his generals appear divided on his recent increased verbalization to get out. But they apparently share his concerns over local outbreaks impacting troops stationed there:

U.S. officials worry the virus could become rampant in Afghanistan, given its lack of health care and testing and its shared border with Iran, which has been hit hard by the pandemic.

“Afghanistan is going to have a significant coronavirus issue,” a former senior U.S. official said. “It hasn’t really manifested yet but it will.”

On the other hand they argue that should coronavirus be a driving reason to pullout of central Asia, then it makes the American military’s presence in places like hard-hit Italy even harder to defend.

“They said the president’s military advisers have made the case to him that if the U.S. pulls troops out of Afghanistan because of the coronavirus, by that standard the Pentagon would also have to withdraw from places like Italy, which has been hit particularly hard by the pandemic, officials said,” according to the NBC report.

The end result could be simply that the remaining tens of thousands of US troops be confined to a couple major bases to ride out the pandemic, yet without withdrawing.

Among the most significant obstacles that remain to the peace deal relates to ongoing Kabul national government talks with the Taliban. Both sides have to accept the terms of the US deal as it relates to how it impacts their interactions, such as mass prisoner swaps, still subject of major contention.

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.0885 UP .0061 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS //CORONAVIRUS/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.63 DOWN 0.660 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL...UNLIMITED QE

GBP/USA 1.2499   UP   0.0078  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3953 DOWN .0081 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 61 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.0885 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 5.47 POINTS OR 0.19% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 295.82 POINTS OR 1.22%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,13%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 295.80 POINTS OR 1.22%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.47 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.13% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 12.03  POINTS OR 0.06%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1709.80

silver:$15.12-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.65% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.23 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 99.82 DOWN 52 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.97% DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.04%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.84%//DOWN 6 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,73 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 89 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.47% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.20% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0839  UP     .0014 or 14 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.85 DOWN .442 OR YEN UP 44  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2440 UP .0019 POUND UP 19  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 37 basis points to 1.3999

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0795    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0860  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.9974 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.04%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield  DOWN 4 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.62 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.21 DOWN 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.88 DOWN 17  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 89.75  0.56%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 107.58 POINTS OR 1.01%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 52.33 POINTS 1.16%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 73.90 POINTS or 1.10%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 305.90 POINTS OR 1.76%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 11.94 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 19.98 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    74.34  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.13 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 13 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.47 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  $12.69//

 

 

BRENT :  $20.53

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.60…down 6 basis points in yield

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.20..down 6 basis points in yield..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.0832 ( UP 7   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.87 DOWN .427 (YEN UP 43 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 99.96 up 3 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2434 UP 13  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.9886

 

 

the Russian rouble 74.18   UP 0.29 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 29 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3992 DOWN 44 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.47%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 32.23 POINTS OR 0.12%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 122.43 POINTS OR 1.40%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  34.13 CLOSED UP .84

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.84%//libor dropping like a stone

LIBOR/OIS:  .784%

TED SPREAD:723%

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bonds Bid Amid Crude Chaos As Fauci Frightens FANGs

The “Virus-Fear”-trade continues to tread water despite hopeful moves in the major indices this month…

Source: Bloomberg

But Dr. Fauci’s comments overnight seemed to spoil the party for the big momentum stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

“So it’s not going to disappear from the planet, which means as we get into next season, in my mind it’s inevitable that we will have a return of the virus or maybe it never even went away. When it does, how we handle it will determine our fate,” Fauci commented overnight, adding that he was “almost certain” the virus will return in the winter.

So Fauci’s warning to the world is simple “Winter is coming”

Nasdaq was the biggest loser for a second day in a row with S&P and Dow failing to cling to unchanged as Small Caps and Trannies squeezed higher again… (another weak close)

A third day of opening short-squeeze today but the squeeze ran out of ammo fast…

Source: Bloomberg

And FANG stocks, for instance, suffered their biggest 2-day drop in six weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude markets were total chaos as Index/ETF shifts and imminent futures contract rolls did not help with the front-month illiquidity…

Rather surprisingly, given the endless commentary last month-end, we have barely heard a peep from the likes of CNBC about the massive equity outperformance in April and the need for rebalancing flows against stocks and into bonds…

Which may help explain why bonds were aggressively bid today…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y broke back below 60bps intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar dived for the second day in a row (note all the dollar selling pressure comes in Asia)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were generally flat today except for Ripple which surged…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was marginally lower today (second day of dollar and gold lower together)

Total chaos in crude markets as the front-month swung violently around, only to end almost unchanged…

Finally, as consumer confidence plunged by its most ever, hunkered-down Americans show no appetite at all for a vacation anytime soon…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg notes, a record-low 32% of consumers said in April that they’re planning to take a vacation in the U.S. or outside the country, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report showed Tuesday. While not surprising, that’s bad news for a travel industry hoping coronavirus-mitigation efforts will ease health concerns and get the economy on its feet a little quicker.

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON//BIG NEWS OF THE DAY

Here comes the fun:  Trump ready for Covid reparations against China ..of at least 160 billion dollars…??  (so little??)

(zerohedge)

 

Trump Says ‘COVID Reparations’ Coming: US Will Bill China At Least $160 Billion

At a moment total US COVID-19 cases fast approaches one million, President Trump has again lashed out at China but this time with a very specific threat to bill the county of the devastating coronvirus’ origin more that $160 billion for the ‘substantial’ amount for damages caused by the pandemic.

Trump made the comments from the Rose Garden at the White House Monday after he was pressed by a reporter over a German newspaper report suggesting that China should be issued a $160 billion invoice for the impact on Europe’s economy.

The president responded he had a “much easier” idea: “We have ways of doing things a lot easier than that,” Trump told the coronavirus press briefing. Germany’s looking at things, and we’re looking at things, and we’re talking about a lot more money than Germany’s talking about.”

 

File image, AFP via Getty.

“We haven’t determined the final amount yet. It’s very substantial,” Trump added, suggesting it would be significantly more than the $160 billion floated in German media.

He argued that amid other failings, ultimately Beijing could have stopped the deadly disease at the source when it was first identified in Wuhan in December, though it was present in November.

Hinting at sanctions despite also touting a positive relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump told the briefing further, “There are a lot of ways you can hold them accountable.”

“We’re doing very serious investigations, as you probably know. And we are not happy with China. We are not happy with that whole situation,” he said. “Because we believe it could have been stopped at the source. It could have been stopped quickly, and it wouldn’t have spread all over the world.”

Meanwhile The Daily Mail reports of the original German newspaper report which triggered the exchange as follows:

Last week German paper Bild calculated an ‘invoice’ of nearly €150billion (around $162billion) in economic damage to Germany because of the crisis.

The idea of charging reparations to China is not endorsed by the German government, with Minister of Foreign Affairs Heiko Mass describing the concept as ‘illusory’.

Germany’s Bild“A time is coming when those responsible will be held accountable!”

It marks the first time President Trump has gotten this specific about coronavirus ‘reparations’ paid out by China, given dollar amounts were bandied about in the press briefing.

Since last month he’s echoed that “China must pay!” when raising the issue of economic devastation suffered across the US as a result of the economic “pause” and widespread state lockdowns.

end

ii)Market data/USA

my goodness, this is huge:  The uSA by Sept 2020 will sell 4 trillion dollars in new debt this year.  Here is a summary of what it will look like:

(zerohedge)

The US Will Sell $4 Trillion In Debt This Year, A 300% Increase: This Is What It Will Look Like

Don’t look now, but just weeks after it passed the biggest fiscal stimulus in US history, Congress passed an additional round of fiscal measures totaling $484bn. This raises Goldman’s estimated 2020 US deficit financing need to ~$3.5 trillion. But there’s more: the bank does not think the latest measure is the final word here, and its economists expect another round totaling $550bn to pay for items such as aid to state and local governments, that haven’t been fully addressed thus far.

On the whole, this would translate to between $3.8-$4 trillion in financing needs for 2020almost a trillion dollar increment Goldman’s prior deficit estimate, and 300% more than the US sold in calendar 2019. Financing such a massive gap, amounting to 20% of GDP, will require a broad-based increase across maturities and product types.

So how will the US pay for this massive financing hole. Below Goldman lays out what it believes to be a “sensible strategy” to  raise these funds. In the subsequent two years, Goldman turns optimistic and sees the deficit declining to $2.4tn in FY2021 and $1.65tn in FY2022, and reversing some of this year’s increases. We doubt it: once you go helicopter money, you never go back, just look at Japan.

Exhibit 1 shows Goldman’s latest split for CY2020 funding. Bills are still the dominant venue for raising funds, with net supply from April to year-end coming in at around $2.1tn (and about $2.3tn for the calendar year), a magnitude large enough to mean that the bills market will have nearly doubled in size this year. That projection isn’t as far-fetched as it might seem—just in the month of April, Treasury has issued roughly $1.26tn of bills.

This heavy near term reliance on bills is even more visible when looking at split on a fiscal year basis. Exhibit 2 shows Goldman’s projections for net bill and coupon issuance for FY2020, FY2021, and FY2022. As can be seen, as financing needs drop from nearly $4tn this year to about $2.6tn and $1.7tn in the next two years, bills again adjust as the shock absorber. This pattern should be very similar to issuance around the 2008-2009 recession, when bills outstanding shot up to over 30% of USTs outstanding, only to decline to between 15-20% over the subsequent two years.

Such an initial surge in bill issuance makes sense, according to Goldman, only when there’s reason to believe a sizable portion of the funding gap is temporary and likely to fade quickly (it would take a huge optimist to believe that’s the case now). That way, coupon auction size changes can be more gradual, and absorb less of the uncertainty/volatility in deficits. Still, given the large amount that has to be raised, even with bills doing the heavy lifting, Goldman estimates Treasury will have to fund about $1.4tn in FY2020 from coupon issuance.

Exhibit 3 shows Goldman’s best guess of the auction sizes that would be required to raise this amount. As can be seen, auction sizes will have to be lifted fairly aggressively across the spectrum—a conservative estimates sees increases of $12-$15bn in monthly auction sizes across the front and belly, and a more conservative $5-$8bn in longer maturities. Goldman also expects the introduction of both the 20y bond at the upcoming refunding, and a 1y SOFR-linked FRN in summer. For most of the maturities, the auction sizes will hit their peak levels later this year or early next year.

On the demand side, Goldman expects – for obvious reasons – that the Fed will remain the largest player in the market, as Helicopter money goes BRRRRR. In the bank’s most recent analysis, it had estimated that the Fed would have to absorb slightly more than $2tn of the issuance this year to maintain “normal functioning”; with the upsized deficits, the bank now believes that number is now closer to $2.4-$2.6 trillion.

end

USA Consumer confidence collapses as well as the Richmond Mfg index

(zerohedge)

US Consumer Confidence Collapses, Richmond Fed Crashes To Record Lows

After plunging in March, expectations were for The Conference Board confidence survey to crash even further in April as COVID concerns began to really rage and lockdowns went nationwide.

The Conference Board’s headline index plummeted by 31.9 points, the sharpest drop since 1973 to its lowest since May 2014…

Source: Bloomberg

The Present Situation crashed to 76.4 (its biggest drop ever)…

But ‘hope’ never fails, with expectations rising very modestly from 86.8 to 93.8.

Shifting from American people to American business, The Richmond Fed Manufacturing survey confirmed the utter calamity across businesses in America, crashing to its lowest on record…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, what all of that summed up means for the overall PMI… is a disaster

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

But hey, The Fed’s got your back right?

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Trump expands his bailout capacity by providing a bailout facility for cities and counties.

(zerohedge)

Fed Expands Scope Of Municipal Bailout Facility After Criticism It Excluded Many Majority-Black Cities

With a heated political debate currently raging over the fate of insolvent US states, with Democrats’ demands that any further bailouts include funding for cash-strapped states and cities meeting opposition in Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell who last said he was open to allowing states to declare bankruptcy – rather than sending governors more federal money to deal with their own ballooning deficits – and president Trump chiming in today with a “question” if there should be a bailout for mostly “poorly run, in all cases Democrat run” states, moments ago the Fed may have made that particular bailout discussion moot, when after the close the Federal Reserve announced it was expanding the scope and duration of the moral hazard blanket the Municipal Liquidity Facility, a $500 billion emergency lending program aimed at providing short-term credit to state and local governments.

After encountering criticism that many large, majority-black U.S. cities wouldn’t qualify for the program, the central bank lowered the population thresholds under which counties and cities would be eligible to sell short-term debt to the facility. The new levels are at least 500,000 for counties and 250,000 for cities.

“The new population thresholds allow substantially more entities to borrow directly from the MLF than the initial plan announced on April 9. The facility continues to provide for states, cities, and counties to use the proceeds of notes purchased by the MLF to purchase similar notes issued by, or otherwise to assist, other political subdivisions and governmental entities. The expansion announced today also allows participation in the facility by certain multistate entities”, the Fed said in Monday’s statement.

Additionally, the Fed extended the maturity criteria of eligible debt: after the revision, eligible notes must mature no later than 36 months from the date of issuance, an increase from the previously announced 24-month maximum term. In addition, and in keeping with lowering the credit standards for what it deems appropriate collateral, the Fed announced that eligible issuers must have had an investment grade rating as of April 8, 2020 from at least two major nationally recognized statistical rating organizations. In other words, any upcoming downgrades to junk will not be a gating factor for future bailouts.

The termination date for the facility has been extended to December 31, 2020 in order to provide eligible issuers more time and flexibility.

The Fed also said it was considering expanding the MLF to allow a limited number of governmental entities that issue bonds backed by their own revenue to participate directly in the MLF as eligible issuers.

“The Federal Reserve will continue to closely monitor conditions in primary and secondary markets for municipal securities and will evaluate whether additional measures are needed to support the flow of credit and liquidity to state and local governments.”

And since at this point it has become virtually impossible to keep track of all the various bailout facilities and programs launched by the Fed, we will let readers familiarizes themselves with the terms of the Fed’s latest moral hazard expansion which can be found below.

The Federal Reserve will continue to closely monitor conditions in primary and secondary markets for municipal securities and will evaluate whether additional measures are needed to support the flow of credit and liquidity to state and local governments.”

And since at this point it has become virtually impossible to keep track of all the various bailout facilities and programs launched by the Fed, we will let readers familiarizes themselves with the terms of the Fed’s latest moral hazard expansion which can be found below.

 

 

 
END
The portal for small business bailout cash crashes 4 minutes after a second round launch
(zerohedge)

Small Business Bailout Demand So High, SBA Portal Crashes 4 Minutes After Second Round Launch

It took just four minutes before unprecedented demand swamped the Small Business Administration’s second Paycheck Protection Program rollout, causing it to crash.

Two days after Congress approved on Saturday another $310 billion in Small Business Administration Paycheck Protection Program loans after the original $349 billion in funding ran out in just a matter of days, lenders reported that they were shut out of the SBA’s system to apply for relief loans, a sign that the program that restarted Monday with additional funding is already overwhelmed and the system crashed.

According to Bloomberg, just minutes after the SBA’s Paycheck Protection Program relaunched at 10:30 am ET, lenders complained they either couldn’t access the agency’s system or were being kicked out as they tried to process applications on behalf of small-business owners, said Paul Merski of the Independent Community Bankers of America. The platform went down four minutes after it opened, according to a person familiar with the matter.

“Bankers are sitting there refreshing their screen every 15 minutes trying to get in. It’s very frustrating,” Merski said.

CNBC’s Dawn Giel tweeted that an industry source confirmed that the platform did open at 10:30 a.m. as planned, but was giving applicants an error message within four minutes.

Dawn Giel@DawnGiel

According to an industry source, the @SBAgov E-Trans system used for loans is already running into issues. Platform opened up again at 10:30a ET today for the second round of $310B in funding for small businesses…the below error message apparently occurred 4 minutes later

View image on Twitter

The SBA notified lenders on Sunday that it would pace the rate of applications into its E-Tran system, meaning that all lenders should be able to submit at the same rate. The pacing mechanism prevents any one lender from submitting thousands of loans into the system at once, and a lender that goes above that limit will get timed out of the system, an agency spokesman said. Meanwhile, banks had warned applicants prior to the reopening that the funding could once again run out quickly.

Kate Rogers

@katerogers

“The pacing mechanism prevents any one lender from submitting thousands of loans an hour into the ETran system. If a lender goes above the pacing limit they will get timed out.” 2/2 https://twitter.com/katerogers/status/1254801835342401541 

Kate Rogers

@katerogers

In response to reports of outages, Sr. Admin official says:

“SBA notified lenders yesterday that pacing of applications into the ETran system would occur, meaning all lenders would be able to submit at the same rate per hour.” 1/2

Rob Nichols, president and chief executive officer of the American Bankers Association, said in a tweet that his member banks across the country “are deeply frustrated at their inability to access” SBA’s system. He said the association has “raised these issues at the highest levels,” and until they are resolved, banks “will not be able help more struggling small businesses.”

The SBA said that “unprecedented demand” slowed e-Tran with more than 100,000 loans processed by more than 4,000 lenders as of 3:30 p.m, with CNBC’s Kate Rogers adding that’s “more than double the number of users accessing the system compared to any day during the initial round of the program.”

The glitches from the rollout of the second round echo the first round of the program, when lenders were repeatedly locked out of the loan platform, even though as we now know the bulk of the money went to close clients of the major banks including hedge funds and public companies, who used up all the funds before any could be used for those who truly need it, such as small and medium – mom and pop – businesses. The initiative restarted Monday with an additional $320 billion after the initial $349 billion to support small business during the coronavirus pandemic ran out after just 13 days.

This time the money is expected to run out in just a few days.

As previously reported, bigger companies such as Shake Shack and the operator of Ruth’s Chris steak houses got loans but returned the money after a backlash. A spokeswoman for the NBA’s Los Angeles Lakers said on Monday the team qualified for a $4.6 million loan, and repaid it after learning funds had been depleted.

The initiative, which first launched April 3, was marred by delays and glitches after guidance on how to process loans wasn’t released until the night before, and many big banks weren’t ready to participate or held back until rules because clearer. Advocates complained that many small mom-and-pop shops were shut out as outrage built over larger, public companies and big chains getting funded.

Even before the first new application were met with broken websites on Monday, advocates were concerned the additional funding could also be exhausted in a matter of days, won’t be enough to meet demand, and might not reach the entities that need it the most. As Bloomberg reported previously, the SBA and U.S. Treasury Department have sought to avoid pitfalls from the first round. They issued new guidance last week reaffirming that companies must certify they were affected by the pandemic and telling large firms with access to other capital they shouldn’t apply — and that firms can return loans by May 7 without penalty. Hedge funds and private-equity firms were told they were ineligible.

To ensure access for all of the more than 5,000 lenders approved to participate in the program, the SBA announced on Sunday it’s capping loans from each bank at $60 billion and pacing the acceptance of applications while allowing lenders to submit them in batches, initially set at a minimum of 15,000 and revised Monday to 5,000 or more that must be submitted by 9 p.m. on Monday.

END

A good one:  short but very good:  An anatomy of the crash which is unfolding as we speak

(Charles Hugh Smith/Of Two Minds.

 

The Crash Has Only Just Begun

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Everything, including a rational, connected-to-reality, effective financial system, is on back-order and unlikely to ship any time soon.

While the stock market euphorically front-runs the Fed and a V-shaped recovery, the reality is the crash has only just begun. To understand why, look at income and debt. Income–earned and unearned–is in free-fall, while debt–which must be serviced by income–is exploding higher.

Bailouts are not a permanent substitute for income. In the short-term, bailouts–in the form of payments to everyone who’s lost their source of earned income, i.e. their job–is a necessary substitute for lost income. But longer term, subsidizing income with borrowed money weakens the currency and the economy, as productivity stagnates.

As for servicing debt–the unemployed working class is getting an extra $600 a week not out of kindness but to make sure these households can continue to service their debts: auto and truck loans, student loans, credit cards, etc. Absent a federal bailout, millions of unemployed would cease making loan payments, creating a financial crisis for lenders.

Investment income is also crashing as companies slash dividends and stock market gains dry up. Oil exporters are facing a $1.2 trillion cut in annual income, and institutional property owners are facing steep declines as tenants stop paying rent and structural declines in employment will pressure rents lower in housing and commercial properties.

As the housing market implodes, capital gains from flipping houses will also collapse.As Corporate America realizes it no longer needs vast office spaces for its (reduced) workforce as millions are working from home, the demand for commercial properties will fall off a cliff, and the rental income generated by commercial property will also fall off a cliff.

Even if interest rates fall to zero, the interest paid by borrowers will not be zero. But even if borrowers get very low rates, they still have to make the monthly principal payments, which can each run into the hundreds of dollars. Lowering interest rates doesn’t reduce the principal payments or reduce the interest due to zero. Indeed, the student loan and credit card rackets are experts at sucking borrowers dry with late fees and much higher rates than initially advertised.

Capital isn’t flowing into productive investments; it’s front-running the Federal Reserve’s free money for financiers in grossly overvalued stocks and seeking “dead money” safe havens.

The money that’s being sent to unemployed workers is borrowed, and small businesses are being offered loans, much of which will be forgiven if the funds are used to pay wages. In other words, all of these trillions of dollars being substituted for earned income are borrowed, and with capital going to grossly overvalued Big Tech stocks and “dead money” safe havens, there are no capital flows which will support a return to commerce and productivity that will pay wages or generate investment income (unearned income).

Bulls can argue that “this time it’s different,” that debt doesn’t matter and earnings don’t matter, but where is the history to support their claim that capital flowing into overvalued stocks is going to generate earned income that can service the exploding debt load?

The crash has only just begun. Everything, including a rational, connected-to-reality, effective financial system, is on back-order and unlikely to ship any time soon.

*  *  *

end

Another good one:  An anatomy of an economic crash!

(Peter St Onge/Mises)

The Fed Has Gone Nuts… And It Can Get Worse

Authored by Peter St.Onge via The Mises Institute,

With its $700 billion bond-buying expansion in response to the COVID crisis, the Federal Reserve has thrust itself into the limelight. Like a sixteen-year-old with a credit card, the Fed is salivating over what money-printing powers it shall seize next. How is the prudent investor to respond?

First, what the Fed’s already done: pushed interest rates to zero and expanded into “unlimited” buying of assets, now reaching to corporate bonds and local government bonds. These bring the same concerns we had in 2008: trillions in new money to dilute the spending power of current savers, along with the risk of “moral hazard where government covers the losses for corporate, and government, irresponsibility.

What’s more concerning is what the Fed might do next. Proposals are floating up for four very corrosive measures:

  1. negative interest rates;
  2.  directly subsidizing bonds;
  3. writing Fed checks for corporate equity or for a universal basic income up to $72,000 per year;
  4. and letting poor countries effectively print their own US dollars.

All four may be bonkers, but they carry significant political risk, because they enjoy support not just from the redistributionist left, but also “business conservatives” happy to raid our future to make their pain stop.

Why bonkers? Even champions concede that negative rates would need compulsory rules such as declaring worthless all serial numbers ending in zero, or forcing Americans to use “crypto” dollars that automatically devalue. Subsidizing bonds by targeting interest rates would permanently suck capital from the private sector into unlimited local government spending. Buying corporate equity risks turning every business in America into a government-run entity, a road Japan is already well along. Meanwhile, printing up $72,000 per family per year, or letting Guatemala print US dollars at will, is the kind of thing one expects from crash-the-dollar Bitcoiners, not from Congress and central bankers.

The common thread of all these proposals is to triple down on the money printing and gamble covering of 2008—spreading unlimited dollars to, especially, big business and governments, the price of it all to be paid by those unwise enough to either not work for the government or to not have a good lobbyist.

Alas, the joy of all that generosity is immediate but the pain is paid over decades, as savers are diluted by the new trillions. This fear was muted in 2008, because the ensuing recession lasted so long that new money was largely saved. If, as some expect, COVID leads to a V-shaped recovery, that inflation may come with a vengeance this time.

Beyond inflation, this level of spending risks permanent distortions in capital markets—a permanent siphon of trillions from the private sectors and individuals to the government and politically favored sectors. All that new money artificially props up prices, and the longer they remain propped up, the longer capital flows towards the prop. Even after the crisis, no politician, much less Trump, will want to be the guy who takes away the punch bowl.

And this is already becoming a supersized punch bowl. We can only imagine the pressure to keep propping, say, local government borrowers, again becoming a permanent siphon on the productive economy.

Historically pandemics have a limited impact on long-term growth. After all, as Austrian theory emphasizes, an economy is made of entrepreneurs forever seeking new desires to satisfy. This process does not stop just because a disease temporarily shutters businesses. There is a hit to wealth, yes, but the fundamental workings of an economy are not affected by pandemics any more than by an earthquake or a bad winter.

That said, what can affect the fundamental workings of an economy is radical policies that impose new burdens on producers, whether in the form of new regulations or new taxes to pay for a raft of handouts. We can see the difference in America’s last two pandemics, in 1957 and 1968. When policy was prudent, in 1957, recovery was very fast. When policy was interventionist, as in 1968, the pain lasted for a generation, through the 1970s and into the 1980s.

As for inflation, Austrian models of money demand suggest little risk during the recession itself, as excess money is saved, but a raised risk if we do get that V-shaped recovery and cash savings are spent. And, of course, stagflation becomes a real possibility if the government follows the 1970s playbook of economy-wrecking reforms while pumping out all that fresh cash.

It’s still possible for us to get out of this relatively economically intact, but only if we reign in the empire-builders in Washington now.

END
I hope you all saw the you tube video I brought to your attention yesterday. It was terrific .
The powers to be at you tube have censored it now and removed all of its contents.
(Watson/Summit News)

YouTube Censors Viral Video Of California Doctors Criticizing “Stay-At-Home” Order

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

YouTube has censored a viral video in which two doctors criticized the logic of whether California’s stay-at-home coronavirus order is necessary.

The video, which had racked up over 5 million views, featured Dr. Dan Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi, co-owners of Accelerated Urgent Care in Bakersfield, Calif.

In the clip, Erickson asserts that there is only a “0.03 chance of dying from COVID in the state of California,” prompting him to ask:

“Does that necessitate sheltering in place? Does that necessitate shutting down medical systems? Does that necessitate people being out of work?”

Erickson also asked why fatalities were being counted as COVID-19 deaths when other ailments were actually more to blame.

“When someone dies in this country right now, they’re not talking about the high blood pressure, the diabetes, the stroke. They’re saying ‘Did they die from COVID?’” Erickson said.

“We’ve been to hundreds of autopsies. You don’t talk about one thing, you talk about comorbidities. ER doctors now [say] ‘It’s interesting when I’m writing about my death report, I’m being pressured to add COVID. Why is that?”

The video was deleted late last night for “violating YouTube’s terms of service.”

Daniel Horowitz

@RMConservative

Is it just me or did @YouTube take down Dr. Erickson’s viral video with 5 million views? https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=xfLVxx_lBLU&feature=emb_title 

Earlier this month, YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki told CNN that the company would ban any video content that contradicted World Health Organization recommendations.

However, Wojcicki suggested that this would mainly be focused on banning information about fake cures, not questioning of government policy.

The video platform has also set about banning any content that claims 5G cell towers are linked to the coronavirus outbreak.

During an appearance on Fox News last night, Dr. Erickson pointed to Sweden, which didn’t impose any drastic lockdown measures, but now has achieved herd immunity against coronavirus.

“And if you look at their numbers: 200 deaths per million compared to ours, [which is] about the same. Italy’s [is] about 400 per million and Spain is about 400 per million, so we are looking at this going, ‘OK, they took a completely different approach and their results are basically the same,’” said Erickson.

Another version of the original video that YouTube deleted appears below.

*  *  *

My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

end
Another ER Doctor explains why reopening th economy will save lives.
(zerohedge)

Bronx ER Doctor Explains Why Reopening The Economy Now Might Actually Save Lives

Last night, after we reported on a pair of ER doctors arguing that the US states should lift their lockdowns immediately (during the course of their argument, which was mostly rooted in trends they’ve witnessed first hand, they apparently made the error of bringing up ‘personal liberty’ and ‘the Constitution’, words that prompt progressives to stop listening and start squawking about killing grandma to further enrich the billionaires) YouTube decided that their argument constituted ‘misinformation’ about the coronavirus outbreak and deleted the video after it racked up more than 5 million views.

We found that curious, since even doctors and epidemiologists have told mainstream news organizations that our understanding of the virus is still developing, and things we thought weren’t accurate just weeks ago and now being re-examined. One such aspect is the heavy handed lockdown response implemented across the US, and elsewhere. Urban leftists and out-of-touch Silicon Valley billionaires simply don’t understand that there are millions of Americans out there – many of whom happen to be white – who are absolutely terrified about losing their livelihoods, and don’t understand why all of this is necessary to combat a virus that leaves the vast majority of those infected unscathed.

The first rounds of ‘surveillance’ testing in the US, carried out in New York and in California’s Santa Clara County (the Cali effort was part of a private study, while New York State is testing random samples of the population to try and discern how widely spread the virus has already become) have suggested that the number of total cases is much, much higher than official numbers reflect. The most recent data released by Gov. Cuomo suggest that 1 in 4 people in NYC might already be infected, a figure that rises to 40% in some poorer areas like parts of the Bronx, where most workers are ‘essential’.

Many have blamed politicians for sending ‘mixed messages’ to the public, but the truth is, the message has changed along with our understanding and experience dealing with the virus.

And now, an ER doctor at a hospital in the Bronx is arguing that it’s time to reopen the economy, while pointing out that many thousands of unnecessary deaths could result if we don’t reopen quickly enough, as millions of Americans delay or skip critical preventative care, including people with heart disease and other health issues that make doing so particularly dangerous.

Daniel Murphy, an emergency room physician at St. Barnabas Hospital in The Bronx. Murphy contracted the virus during the early days of the outbreak, and accidentally spread it to members of his family. Luckily, they all quickly recovered and he returned to work in time for the big rush.

Murphy readily acknowledged that the outbreak has been by far the worst public health emergency of his 30-year career in medicine.

COVID-19 has been the worst health-care disaster of my 30-year ­career, because of its intensity, duration and potential for lasting impact. The lasting impact is what worries me the most. And it’s why I now believe we should end the lockdown and rapidly get back to wor.

From mid-March through mid-April, the ER staff at St. Barnabas huddled in groups of about 20 every morning. We asked ourselves what had happened over the previous shift. We generated a list of action­able tasks for the following 24 hours. At first, we addressed personal protective equipment and the management of patients with mild illness who were seeking COVID-19 tests.

Two weeks ago, Murphy said, their ER was slammed with calls, and patients were dying from severe COVID-19 left and right. But as the curve has ‘flattened’ – a trend closely documented by data collected by New York State – Murphy and his team have noticed a massive drop in emergency patients with COVID-19.

Then came the wave of critically ill patients in numbers none of us had ever seen. This lasted for two weeks. The number of patients on ventilators accumulated in the ER and throughout the hospital. We witnessed an unprecedented number of deaths. The tone of the huddles became more somber. We became accustomed to the morbidity; we did our jobs.

It is precisely what I have witnessed that now tells me that it’s time to ease the lockdown. Here’s why.

Then, all of sudden, on April 7 at 1 pm, Murphy noticed that the non-stop parade of ambulances carrying critically ill COVID-19 patients seemed to have stopped suddenly. From that point on, the number of ER admissions started to decline precipitously.

First, the wave has crested. At 1 p.m. on April 7, the COVID-19 arrivals slowed down. It was a discrete, noticeable event. Stretchers became available by 5 p.m., and the number of arriving COVID-19 patients dropped below the number discharged, transferred or deceased.

That drop was “striking”, as the doctor explained, because the community he serves is overwhelmingly poor, and sported high rates of infection. The surveillance data released by NY State so far suggests that the area surrounding the hospital may have seen infection rates climb as high as 40%.

The mechanics of this ebb and flow have led Dr. Murphy to suspect that the lockdowns have actually done little to blunt the ‘peak’, a conclusion that’s supported by Sweden’s policies and outcomes.

This was striking, because the community I serve is poor. Some are homeless. Most work in “essential,” low-paying jobs, where distancing isn’t easy. Nevertheless, the wave passed over us, peaked and subsided. The way this transpired tells me the ebb and flow had more to do with the natural course of the outbreak than it did with the lockdown.

Whatever Murphy’s first-hand experience might suggest about the usefulness of lockdowns, what’s wrong with waiting a few more weeks, just in case he’s wrong? Well, Murphy explains, even if we set aside the economic damage and its long-term ramifications for personal health, there’s an even more urgent issue at hand: Because of the lockdowns, too many Americans are delaying critical non-COVID-19 care.

The problem is that in addition to the drop in coronavirus patients, the hospital has also reported a massive drop in patients of all types and categorizations as more people are apparently staying home despite injuries or symptoms that are probably critical for fear of catching the virus. There’s simply no other explanation for such a statistically significant drop.

Without a doubt, many of those who aren’t healthy but have opted to delay care that could prevent lethal strokes, heart attacks or other diseases.

Second, I worry about non-coronavirus care. While the inpatient units remain busy with sick COVID-19 patients, our ER has been quiet for more than a week. We usually average 240 patients a day. For the last week, we averaged fewer than 100. That means our patients in this diverse, low-income community are afraid to come to the ER for non-COVID care.

Gotham-wide, the number of 911 ambulance runs declined to 3,320 on April 18, down from a peak of 6,527 on March 30, according to New York Fire Department data. The current nadir is significantly below the average.

A large share of those staying home surely have emergency medical and surgical conditions not related to the novel coronavirus. The growing numbers ­dying at home during this crisis must include fatal myocardial infarctions, asthma exacerbations, bacterial infections and strokes.

Another huge problem that has been almost completely ignored is that child vaccination rates have plummeted during the pandemic.

Meanwhile, our pediatric volume in the ER has practically disappeared. Visits to primary-care pediatricians are also down, with vaccine schedules falling behind. Everyone seems to be avoiding the health system — an important and unfortunate consequence of the stay-at-home strategy.

Third, inordinate fear misguides the public response. While COVID-19 is serious, fear of it is being over-amplified. The public needs to understand that the vast majority of infected people do quite well.

And finally, as we noted above, Dr. Murphy argued that the virus is already much more pervasive than official data reflect.

Finally, COVID-19 is more prevalent than we think. Many New Yorkers already have the COVID-19 infection, whether they are aware of it or not. As of today, over 43 percent of those tested are positive in The Bronx. We are developing a significant degree of natural herd immunity. Distancing works, but I am skeptical that it is playing as predominant a role as many think.

There’s no question that testing is “important work”, Dr. Murphy added. But there’s no reason it can’t happen “in parallel” to an economic reopening. And even as it stands, scientists continue to find flaws with tests that call their results into question. All of this will likely take months, if not years to sort out. And we simply can’t wait that long without making the ‘cure’ more damaging than the ‘disease’.

More testing will better establish the numbers among those with mild illnesses and no symptoms. My professional ­experience tells me the number of infected people will be high. Testing is important work, but it should happen in parallel to the immediate resuscitation of the economy and getting people back to work.

At present, the testing is ­imperfect. We can’t wait months. We must protect the vulnerable and mitigate without destroying the economy.

So, will Google and YouTube censor Dr. Murphy, too?

end

BOEING

Stocks initially tumble on a report that Boeing may face criminal and a civil probe over its 737 max production

(zerohedgge)

Stocks Tumble On Report Boeing Faces Criminal, Civil Probe Over 737MAX Production

After surging in early trading, rising as much as 400 points, the Dow Jones has given up all gains, and quick turned red, with the catalyst that sent the broad index negative a report from Dow Jones that Boeing – which yesterday warned things won’t return to normal for years – faces “criminal, civil scrutiny into years of 737 Max quality-control lapses”after Company inspections found debris left in roughly half of undelivered 737 MAX jets; according to the report, the latest development “exposes the plane maker to greater legal liability than previously anticipated by industry and government officials.”

According to the report, “the inquiries build on a federal grand-jury investigation into hazardously designed flight-control systems” and as part of the expanded probes, Justice Department prosecutors and federal air-safety regulators have been scrutinizing potentially significant safety problems stemming from 737 MAX production missteps.

The grand jury probe has focused largely on what certain Boeing employees told Federal Aviation Administration officials about the dangers of a faulty stall-prevention feature before it led to two fatal MAX crashes in less than five months and prompted the March 2019 grounding of the global fleet, according to people familiar with the matter.

The report adds that FAA investigators have also been examining factory problems that raise red flags about the Chicago plane maker’s compliance with mandatory production rules and safeguards. As reported several months back, Boeing found debris mistakenly left behind by workers in fuel tanks or other interior spaces of approximately half of the MAX aircraft it inspected starting last November, according to a company spokesman.

The FAA is pursuing possible civil-enforcement action and is considering proposing a multimillion-dollar fine against Boeing regarding the debris issue, according to DJ sources. The agency also is drawing up plans for stepped up government oversight and enhanced assembly-line inspections amid anticipated resumption of MAX production in coming months.

The news was enough to break any upward momentum stocks may have had, with the Nasdaq slumping in the red well ahead of the Boeing news perhaps in response to the weekend’s Goldman report slamming the massive outperformance of the Top 5 tech names, which even Goldman said is unsustainable and “always ends in a steep drawdown.”

end
The next bailout…Tyson and the Nation’s food suppliers:
(zerohedge)

President Trump Readies Bailout For Nation’s Food Suppliers

President Trump, on Tuesday, said he would be signing an executive order to address the meat supply aimed at Tyson Foods Inc.’s shuttered meatpacking plants that could disrupt the nation’s food supply chain in May.

The president did not elaborate much on the executive order but noted Tyson faces a “unique circumstance” in terms of its liability. When asked about the supply of meat in the country, President Trump said: “There’s plenty of supply.”

On Twitter, President Trump, on Tuesday morning, retweeted The Counter, a non-profit news organization forced on the nation’s food supply. The tweet read: “First, there is no shortage of meat destined for the grocery store shelf. It might take stores longer than usual to restock certain products, due to supply chain disruptions. But we have many millions of pounds of meat in cold storage across the nation. 4/.”

The Counter@TheCounter

First, there is no shortage of meat destined for the grocery store shelf.

It might take stores longer than usual to restock certain products, due to supply chain disruptions. But we have many millions of pounds of meat in cold storage across the nation. 4/

President Trump’s comments come as the starkest warning yet that high food prices could last for a long time, Tyson Foods warned in a full-page ad in the New York Times on Sunday that the “food supply chain is breaking.”

“As pork, beef and chicken plants are being forced to close, even for short periods of time, millions of pounds of meat will disappear from the supply chain,” wrote Tyson Chairman John Tyson, patriarch of the company’s founding family, in a Tyson Foods website post that also ran as a full-page ad in several newspapers. “The food supply chain is breaking.”

It appears our reports on meat shortages developing across the country could materialize in the month ahead as it now appears President Trump is about to sign an executive order to address the issue.

end
LAS VEGAS
Vegas is running out of money and is struggling to survive: how on earth can Vegas open with social distancing?
(zerohedge)

“Money Is Running Out” – Vegas Struggles To Survive Shutdown

Vegas is in trouble. Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak tweeted Monday he will be reopening the state’s economy in the near term. Sisolak knows if stay-at-home public health orders are extended, casinos, restaurants, and other entertainment businesses might not survive.

Vegas’ McCarran International Airport, a gauge on tourism flow to the strip, recorded a massive halving of tourists by plane in March when compared with March 2019.

That’s a staggering drop in tourism by flight to the strip, and it’s devastating for the region as nearly 1 in 3 jobs in the state are tied to tourism.

Coronavirus lockdowns in the state, along with international flight restrictions, have pushed Vegas to a near breaking point.

AP News says the strip is usually “busy, always noisy, never sleeps… you can now hear birds chirping.”

“It’s crazy,” said Chris Morehouse, an Elvis impersonator, who compares the shutdown to “the end of the world.”

We noted above, the state is hugely tourism sensitive, with 1 in 3 jobs tied to tourism, leisure, hospitality, and the gambling industry. Workers are set to lose $7.7 billion in wages and salaries over the next year and a half if the tourism industry stays shut between one to three months.

Nearly 343,000 residents in the state have filed for unemployment benefits in the last five weeks. This means Nevada’s unemployment rate is right around 17%. As for Vegas, the unemployment rate could be significantly higher. Already, folks in the city have protested being out of work, reported NBC Vegas.

Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman calls the statewide shutdown of casinos “total insanity.”

“For heaven’s sake,” Goodman recently said, “being closed is killing us already, and killing Las Vegas, our industry, our convention and tourism business that we have all worked so hard to build.”

AP notes that casino closures are likely to extend into May, with no concrete timeline of reopening.

A Kimberly Ireland,49, a bell desk dispatcher at the Mirage casino-resort who was recently laid off, said she’s living off savings and unemployment.

Money is running out. It’s getting low for the majority of us,” Ireland said.

She hopes work will reopen, but understands Vegas is not ready to return back to normal:

“Everybody wants to get back to business. Everybody wants to get back to semi-normal,” she said. “I just don’t think it’s safe.”

And with companies barely offering hazard pay and medical supplies, many workers are figuring out that collecting unemployment in a pandemic is much safer than working.

Victor Chicas, a restaurant server in the Mandalay Bay casino-hotel, already facing financial hardships before the pandemic, including insurmountable debts and foreclosure on his home, had to cut his cable and internet and drain his pool to lower his electricity bill.

And what’s worse is that MGM Resorts International just canceled bookings at its Las Vegas hotels for between May 1 and 21, suggesting that closures will continue through next month. The earliest reservations are on June 1 through MGM’s website, according to Las Vegas Review-Journal.

Boyd Gaming, Caesars Entertainment, and Station Casinos are other resorts that will start accepting reservations starting on May 15.

Vegas casinos are mass ordering “rona guards.”

Las Vegas Locally 🌴@LasVegasLocally

Vegas casinos are mass ordering these ‘Rona guards, according to a source

Embedded video

Marriot International is “rolling out enhanced technologies over the next few months, including electrostatic sprayers with hospital-grade disinfectant to sanitize surfaces throughout the hotel.”

Like the airline industry, Vegas could take years to recover.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Crook!

Schiff Blocks Release Of Declassified Russia Probe Transcripts, Keeping Americans In The Dark

Via SaraACarter.com,

The Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Rep. Adam Schiff is keeping the truth from the American people. He doesn’t want anyone – beyond those in Congress and the Intelligence Community – to have access to the closed door transcripts of witnesses that have been already been declassified regarding the FBI’s Russia probe.

Frustration is mounting against Schiff, D-CA, and so is patience among those in the administration, Congressional lawmakers and intelligence community who believe the American people have a right to see for themselves the testimony given by 53 witnesses behind closed doors during Congressional investigations into the FBI’s questionable actions and malfeasance during its investigation.

There’s a reason Schiff is fighting back, despite the unanimous bipartisan vote to release the transcripts in the fall of 2018. Schiff doesn’t want you to know the truth. The truth will destroy his credibility and the deceitful disinformation campaign he worked so hard to spread against President Donald Trump and his administration for years. This is the major reason why he has fought so diligently against his own committee’s vote and why he has scrambled behind the scenes on Capitol Hill to keep the documents, which should have been made public within weeks or months of the vote, from every seeing the light of day.

Many sources in the administration, who are familiar with the process, have said the same.

“It’s really concerning Adam Schiff is negating the bipartisan vote to release these transcripts to the public,” said an administration official, with knowledge of the declassification process.

“He’s even going against his own prior statements about transparency. Schiff obviously wants to control what people see in a desperate bid to keep the discredited Russia collusion narrative alive.”

Schiff’s narrative, which is already laden with holes, will completely fall apart if the transcripts of the 53 witnesses in the FBI’s ‘so-called’ Russia collusion probe go public. According to sources, 43 of the transcripts have already been declassified. Ranking Republican member Devin Nunes has pointed the finger at Schiff, saying he is acting as a blockade in preventing the release of the documents. Nunes, who was a guest on the Sara Carter Show last month, also stressed the importance of making public the secret testimony of former Intelligence Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson, in which he discussed his controversial handling of the so-called whistleblower complaint regarding Trump and Ukraine. Nunes said, like the transcripts regarding the Russia hoax, Schiff is fighting to keep Atkinson’s testimony secret. Nunes, along with other senior Republican lawmakers, have an ongoing investigation into Atkinson. Without sharing details, Nunes said Atkinson either lied to members of Congress or he needed to ‘seriously’ clarify his statements.

Some of the testimony being kept from the public includes former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, longtime Trump friend Roger Stone, as well as former Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta. There’s also testimony of former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and Perkins Coie lawyers Michael Sussman, a former DOJ lawyer who passed along alleged details about Russian interference to former FBI general counsel James Baker. Moreover, there is Don Jr’s testimony, former White House aide Hope Hicks and Marc Elias, the chairman who was the Clinton campaign’s general counsel that hired the embattled research firm Fusion GPS to investigate the debunked theory that Trump conspired with Russia.

Those transcripts have been kept from the public by Schiff, D-CA, because it is damaging to their “impeachment scam,” said Nunes on the podcast.

But pressure is mounting and more and more against Schiff.

Last week, John Solomon with Just The News, published a letter Schiff sent in 2019 to then DNI Dan Coats.

The letter specifically ordered that the witness transcripts not be shared with President Trump, nor the White House lawyers. He made this clear, even if the declassification process required sharing, Solomon noted.

“Under no circumstances shall ODNI, or any other element of the Intelligence Community (IC), share any HPSCI transcripts with the White House, President Trump or any persons associated with the White House or the President,” Schiff wrote in a March 26, 2019 letter to then-Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats.

“Such transcripts remain the sole property of HPSCI, and were transmitted to ODNI for the limited purpose of enabling a classification review by IC elements and the Department of Justice,” Schiff added.

On Friday, a senior intelligence official told the The Washington Examiner that “Schiff is thwarting the will of the House Intelligence Committee as expressed in the bipartisan vote in September 2018 to make these transcripts public. He has appointed himself arbiter of what the public should see and has refused to allow the White House to review its own equities, making declassification of 10 of the transcripts impossible. It’s difficult to imagine any motive other than Schiff is still trying to control the narrative on Russia collusion.”

Schiff, on the other hand, is deflecting and instead has attempted to accuse acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell of ‘undermining critical intelligence functions.’ Nothing could be further from the truth, as I recently reported.

Grenell is in the process of restructuring the DNI. It is something that should have happened years ago. Further, Grenell has been overseeing changes that have had consequences for U.S. national security after numerous classified leaks have found their way to the media after private briefings to congressional members.

Grenell argued in a recent letter to Sen. Mark Warner, D-VA, that leaks to the media after classified intelligence briefings with lawmakers on foreign election interference have presented serious concerns and mounting challenges for the intelligence community. Grenell noted that those leaks give “our adversaries unnecessary advantage during a critical time for our nation,” stated the letter which was first published by SaraACarter.com. 

In fact, it is presumed that Schiff has leaked significant information and even lied about that information to the media. He manipulates information that public can’t see for themselves.

On one side, he argues for having access to more classified information but on the other side he wants to keep information that’s already been declassified from the public. All you have to do is ask why?

For nearly four years the Democrats and former senior officials from the Obama administration have done everything in their power to create a narrative that has divided our country and destroyed lives.

Those officials have tainted agencies like the FBI, CIA and other intelligence services by weaponizing the system against political opponents.

Schiff has played a significant role in aiding those officials, like former CIA Director John Brennan, former FBI Director James Comey and others to do so.

If Schiff has nothing to hide and nothing to worry about then he needs to move out of the way. If he does have something to hide, he will continue to fight to keep the American public in the dark.

Here’s my message to Schiff: If you want transparency Chairman let’s have it, release your blockade on the 53 transcripts and let the American people decide for themselves.

 

end
Fake news!!

Politico Quietly Admits Their ‘Trump Owes China Millions’ Article Was Fake News With Midnight Correction

Three days after Politico dropped a ‘bombshell‘ report about President Trump owing millions of dollars to the Bank of China, they published a lengthy retraction seven minutes before midnight on Monday.

The article claimed that a $1 billion refinancing deal from several banks – including the Bank of China, was struck in 2012, in which the Trump Organization ‘has a substantial minority interest,’ and that President Trump therefore owes the Chinese state-owned bank ‘tens of millions of dollars’ on a loan which comes due in 2022.

This was absolute bullshit.

Politico admitted that they hadn’t contacted the Bank of China before going to print, and had relied on public documents. Following the report, the Bank of China told the outlet that they had ‘sold off, or securitized, its debt shortly after the 2012 deal,’ and that the bank has no current financial interest in any properties related to the Trump Organization.

Keep in mind that three journalists wrote the original articleMarc CaputoMeridith McGraw, and Anita Kumar – none of whom thought to practice safe journalism and put the brakes on their bombshell report until contacting the Bank of China.

 

Meridith McGraw, Marc Caputo, Anita Kumar – none of whom reached out to the bank they falsely claimed Trump owes millions

Of course, this massive lie percolated throughout liberal media over the weekend – and was repeated by Joe Biden in an interview with CBS Miami.

JERRY DUNLEAVY@JerryDunleavy

Politico admits that it didn’t seek a comment from the Bank of China before claiming that Trump owed millions of dollars on a loan partially-owned by the Bank of China. The story was false. Joe Biden repeated it in an interview with CBS Miami last night.https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/27/politicos-reporting-on-president-trump-and-the-bank-of-china-214107 

POLITICO’s reporting on President Trump and the Bank of China

Why Friday’s article on Trump’s business dealings with China was updated and corrected.

politico.com

Politico‘s ‘gotcha’ was reduced to an ‘unresolved discrepancy’ in the form of a 2017 document filed by Wells Fargo with the NY Department of Finance listing the Bank of China as having a financial interest in the building, indicating that the state-owned bank had secured an interest in the building’s fixtures – such as its toilets and air conditioning systems – in case of a default. Except, Wells also admitted that this was an error, and is “taking steps to correct the record with an updated filing.”

A far cry from ‘the US president owes China millions.’

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Bank of Japan Ramps up Stimulus with Pledge for Unlimited Bond Buying – joining global counterparts in their unprecedented expansion of monetary stimulus as the coronavirus hammers the world economy…  The BOJ’s previous guideline on government debt was to increase holdings by around 80 trillion yen ($743 billion) per year…

    The central bank also increased its scope for buying corporate bond and commercial paper by more than doubling its ceiling on holdings to 20 trillion yen. It also expanded access to its emergency loan program to a wider range of banks and projected inflation as low as -0.7 percent in the 12 months to March 2021, according to its statement and outlook…

    The BOJ also likely saw a need to take action before the Fed and the European Central Bank meet later this week, so as not to be seen lagging the bold moves of its peers…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-japan-ramps-stimulus-pledge-033022947.html

@SquawkCNBC: “The unemployment rate for the first week of May, we’re going to see a number that’s going to be 16, maybe 17% … for second quarter GDP it’s going to be the biggest negative number that we’ve seen since the Great Depression,” says Kevin Hassett, Senior Advisor to the President.

“I’m sure that over the next three or four weeks, everybody’s going to pull together and come up with a plan to give us the best chance possible for a V-shaped recovery,” Hassett told ABC. “I … don’t think you get it if we don’t have another round of really solid legislation.”…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-economy-idUSKCN2280J1

United States Oil Fund announced it would sell all of its June futures contracts (~20% of its $3.6B holdings) by Thursday of this week.

US crude prices tumble as world’s largest oil ETF [USO] backs out

West Texas Intermediate drops more than 27% one week after sub-zero dive

https://www.ft.com/content/a8a7dc16-1a9a-48f9-9bfa-89269f94218a

‘The food supply chain is breaking,’ Tyson says as plants close – “millions of pounds of meat” will disappear from the supply chain as the coronavirus pandemic pushes food processing plants to close…  https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/business/tyson-foods-nyt-ad/index.html

Freight Trucking Demand Plunges to All Time Lows; Rates Crash and Industry Grapples with Lockdown   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/freight-trucking-demand-plunges-all-time-lows-rates-crash-and-industry-grapples-lockdown

Illinois Governor Advises Unemployment Applicants as Tech Issues Plague System

On Thursday, Gov. J.B. Pritzker acknowledged the Illinois Department of Employment Security’s system jammed amid a swell of applicants [>178k] for unemployment benefits

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/illinois-governor-advises-unemployment-applicants-as-tech-issues-plague-system/2249510/

@realDonaldTrump: Blame the Democrats for any “lateness” in your Enhanced Unemployment Insurance. I wanted the money to be paid directly, they insisted it be paid by states for distribution. I told them this would happen, especially with many states which have old computers.

    Why should the people and taxpayers of America be bailing out poorly run states (like Illinois, as example) and cities, in all cases Democrat run and managed, when most of the other states are not looking for bailout help? I am open to discussing anything, but just asking?

Coronavirus and the era of big government

It’s hard to know how much money Congress has forked out to combat coronavirus and attempt to salvage the American way of life and the economy since late February. There’s no precise, econometric way to calculate the “three-and-a-half” bills Congress has approved in recent weeks.  But, the grand total is pushing $3 trillion…

    “(It’s) time to begin to think about the amount of debt that we’re adding to our country and the future impact of that,” McConnell said. “We’ve also seen with this (pandemic) catastrophic damage to the economy. Until we begin to open up the economy, we can’t spend enough money to solve the problem.”

    The concept of “fiscal responsibility” went out the window long ago. The federal debt grew geometrically under President Trump…  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-big-government-era-pergram

@AlexBerenson: Wow. @NYGovCuomo just announced the new New York City positive antibody results – ~25% (up 3.5% from Friday). At least one in four NYC residents has already had and recovered from #COVID. And what about the indeterminate tests, governor?

Ex-NYPD Chief @BernardKerik: 40% of the economy destroyed because Dr. Fauci and crew inflated the mortality rate creating panic and hysteria. China and the @WHO must pay and Fauci must go.

‘Are You Using This Crisis To Take Us Into Socialism?’: Maria Bartiromo Confronts Bill De Blasio About NYC Coronavirus Response  https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/26/maria-bartiromo-confronts-bill-de-blasio-socialism/

 

Biz owner shocked by angry response when she tells employees paychecks will resume: They see a ‘windfall’ coming – In an interview with CNBC this week, salon owner Jamie Black-Lewis of the Oasis Medspa & Salon in Woodinville and Amai Day Spa in Bothell said her employees were furious because they were already “making” more money being unemployed… In an interview with CNBC this week, salon owner Jamie Black-Lewis of the Oasis Medspa & Salon in Woodinville and Amai Day Spa in Bothell said her employees were furious because they were already “making” more money being unemployed  https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/04/23/biz-owner-shocked-by-employees-response-when-she-tells-them-paychecks-will-resume-they-see-a-windfall-coming-912216

Nearly All Patients Hospitalized With Covid-19 Had Chronic Health Issues, Study Finds

Only 6 percent of patients at one New York area health system had no chronic conditions. Hypertension, obesity and diabetes were common…  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/health/coronavirus-patients-risk.html

Judge Grants Restraining Order to Block Extended Stay-at-Home Order: Reports

Republican State Rep. Darren Bailey of Xenia, Illinois claimed in the lawsuit filed in Clay County Circuit Court that Pritzker exceeded his authority [Now the courts are involved!  Stay tuned!]

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/judge-grants-restraining-order-to-block-extended-stay-at-home-order-reports/2262560/

Attorney General Bill Barr Issues DOJ Memo: “The Constitution is Not Suspended in Times of Crisis”… “Many policies that would be unthinkable in regular times have become commonplace in recent weeks, and we do not want to unduly interfere with the important efforts of state and local officials to protect the public. But the Constitution is not suspended in times of crisis. We must therefore be vigilant to ensure its protections are preserved, at the same time that the public is protected”…

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/04/27/attorney-general-bill-barr-issues-doj-memo-the-constitution-is-not-suspended-in-times-of-crisis/amp/

DOJ Instructs U.S. Attorneys to Lookout for State and Local Governments Violating Civil Liberties

“Now, I am directing each of our United States Attorneys to also be on the lookout for state and local directives that could be violating the constitutional rights and civil liberties of individual citizens.”..

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/27/doj-instructs-u-s-attorneys-to-lookout-for-state-and-local-governments-violating-civil-liberties/#.XqdEkime-n8.twitter

IHME_UW@IHME_UW: As Director Dr. Christopher Murray explains, our team is working on modeling to predict the risk of a second “rebound” of the #COVID19 pandemic. More details on what’s in development [The horrid models are going to spew new panic-inducing crap?]  http://healthdata.org/covid/updates

February 05, 2019: We are in the midst of a measles outbreak here in the US, with cases being reported in New York City, New York state, and Washington state [Ala Covid-19 start, is there a connection?]

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/4-things-everyone-needs-to-know-about-measles-2019020515935

@FerroTV: “S&P 500 is just 17% below its February record high but the median stock trades 28% off its high. Narrow breadth can last for extended periods, but past episodes have signaled below-average market returns and eventual momentum reversals”

Goldman Sees Imminent “Momentum” Crash as All S&P Gains Come from Just 5 Stocks

Microsoft, Apple Amazon, Alphabet (Google) and Facebook… the further market concentration rises, the harder it will be for the S&P 500 index to keep rising without more broad-based participation.”…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-flips-bearish-sees-imminent-momentum-crash-all-sp-gains-come-just-5-stocks

New York cancels Democratic presidential primary over pandemic concerns

The Sanders campaign asked the New York election commission not to cancel the primary

    The state will still go ahead with congressional and state-level primaries on that date, however, turnout is expected to be significantly lower without presidential contestants on the ballot…

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/new-york-cancels-democratic-presidential-primary-over-pandemic-concerns#.Xqcm1IaHbzs.twitter

@CBS_Herridge: Newly declassified transcript FBI 2016 Russia probe, first reported @CBSNews

showed recorded conversation between @GeorgePapa19 and FBI confidential human source (CHS) on 10/23/2016 turned up no evidence coordination between Trump campaign and Russia…

Stone Says FBI Recommended ‘no jail time’ if He Turned on Trump. He Refused to Lie for FBI.

“On July 24th, 2019, the Mueller prosecutors offered my lawyers a deal,” said Stone. “If Stone will fess up, if he will re-characterize thirty phone conversations between myself and candidate Trump, which they had phone records of, but no tapes of. If I would correctly remember the way they wanted me to, they would recommend no jail time for me and I refused. That’s what this whole atrocity has been about.”…

   “Did Christopher Wray approve this over-the-top attack on my home,” said Stone. “This question was asked by Senator Lindsey Graham. But unfortunately Senator Graham rarely follows up on his T.V. talk. We still don’t know who approved this.”…

https://saraacarter.com/stone-says-fbi-recommended-no-jail-time-if-he-turned-on-trump-he-refused-to-lie-for-fbi/

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

 

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