JUNE 5//FAKE JOBS REPORT//EVERYTHING CONTRIVED: GOLD DOWN $40.40 TO $1680.40//SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TO $17.34//ALMOST 157 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//RIOT UPDATES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1680.40  DOWN $40.40   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.34  DOWN 46 CENTS//LONDON SPOT PRICE

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

 

 

i)Gold : $1584.60  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $17.41//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

 

AUG GOLD:  $1683.10  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT (LONDON) VS/FUTURE JUNE: $+2.70

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

 

JULY: 1:30 PM:              $17.48//1:30 PM //SPREAD SPOT LONDON VS FUTURE JULY:      16 CENTS PER OZ//

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2800. usa per oz

and silver; $31.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO WHAT THE CROOKS ARE DOING AT THE COMEX AND LONDON LBMA..PHYSICAL IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AND NOTHING ELSE

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  392/543

 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,718.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/04/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 06/08/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 12
072 H GOLDMAN 63
104 C MIZUHO 1
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 14
132 C SG AMERICAS 1
190 H BMO CAPITAL 7
323 H HSBC 1
357 C WEDBUSH 8
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 6
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 20
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 281
661 C JP MORGAN 347
661 H JP MORGAN 45
686 C INTL FCSTONE 132
690 C ABN AMRO 105 13
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 14 6
800 C MAREX SPEC 3 2
905 C ADM 4
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 543 543
MONTH TO DATE: 45,802

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JUNE CONTRACT: 543 NOTICE(S) FOR 54,300 OZ (1.688 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  45,802 NOTICES FOR 4,580,200 OZ  (142.43 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JUNE

 

 

4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  29,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 398 for 1,990,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9685 DOWN $102

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9723  DOWN 66

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $40.40 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

 

GLD: 1,132.21 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

 

A SMALL PAPER WITHDRAWAL 648,000  OZ

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 472.663  MILLION OZ./

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2664 CONTRACTS FROM 168,156 UP TO 170,820 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  OI OCCURRED WITH  OUR VERY GOOD 8 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO STRONG  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A GOOD EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A TINY DECREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JUNE.  WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3419 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUMONGOUS AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  MAY: 0 AND JULY: 755  AND SEPT 0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  755 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 755 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 735 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.775 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE  8 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.045  MILLION OF INITIALLY STANDING FOR JUNE

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 8 CENTS).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE CONSIDERABLE GAIN AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A TINY DECREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE,3) CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A  NET GAIN OF 3419 CONTRACTS OR 17.095 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

SPREADING OPERATIONS

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JULY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JUNE

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JUNE:

2766 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 2766 CONTRACTS) OR 13.830 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 461 CONTRACTS OR 2.305 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY: 13.830 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 1.609% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,079.94 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP SO FAR                   13.830 MILLION OZ.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 60 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED  AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD AN EXTREMELY LARGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2664, WITH OUR VERY GOOD 8 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 755 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3365 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 755 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A LARGE SIZED INCREASE OF 2664 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A GOOD 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.80 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.856 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 122% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JUNE  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 4 NOTICE(S) FOR  20,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.045 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1711 CONTRACTS TO 471,358 AND FURTHER FORM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE CONSIDERABLE SIZED LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITEOUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE  OF $20.60 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// WE  HAD STRONG BANKER SHORT  COVERING,ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A GOOD  EX. FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $20.60 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 2  4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  13

 

WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 1886 CONTRACTS  (5.8666 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3365 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  JUNE 0.; AUG 3365 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3365.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 471,358. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1654 CONTRACTS: 1479 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3365 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 1654 CONTRACTS OR 5.1446 TONNES. THURSDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $20.60 IN GOLD TRADING.…..

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 5.1446 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $20.60).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS  UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

4 GC VOLUME: 2  // open interest 13 

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (3365) ACCOMPANYING THE CONSIDERABLE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (1711 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1886 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)ANOTHER HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN GOLD  OUNCES STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JUNE MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) CONSIDERABLE COMEX OI LOSS..  AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//THURSDAY//$20.60

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 14,612 CONTRACTS OR 1,461,200 oz OR 45.45 TONNES (6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2435 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 34.98 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 45.45/3550 x 100% TONNES =12.80% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   2861.12  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     45.45 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2664 CONTRACTS FROM 168,156 UP TO 170,820 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS DUE TO;   1) CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A TINY DECREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JUNE AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 755 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 755 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 755 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 2664 CONTRACTS TO THE 755 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 3419 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 17.095 MILLION  OZ!!! OCCURRED WITH THE 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 755 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.55 POINTS OR 0.40%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 404.11 POINTS OR 1.66%   /The Nikkei closed UP 167.99 POINTS OR 0.74%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .07%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0945 /Oil UP TO 38.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.30 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0945 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0924 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY [PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC USA RIOTS//  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 1,711 CONTRACTS TO 471,358 MOVING FURTHER FROM  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS  COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN OF $20.60 IN GOLD PRICING /THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (3365 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)   ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX//JUNE DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) , …  AS WE ENGINEERED A CONSIDERABLE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1654 CONTRACTS WITH GOLD’S HUGE RISE IN PRICE.  

 

 

WE AGAIN HAD 2    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest rises to 13

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3365 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  3365 FOR AUG AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3365 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  1654 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3365 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1,711 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A SMALL  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL COMEX OI LOSS,  ANOTHER HUMONGOUS INCREASE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JUNE DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION…… ALL OF THE ABOVE OCCURRED WITH A GAIN  IN COMEX PRICE OF 20.60 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $20.60).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A GOOD 5.1466 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 1654 CONTRACTS OR 165,400 OZ OR 5.1446 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  471,358 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 47.13 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1465 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1465/2200 OR 66.60% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 272,818 contracts//

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY213,234 contracts// 

 

JUNE 5 /2020

JUNE GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 84,356.58

OZ

BRINKS

HSBC

 

 

incl 2000

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
543 notice(s)
 54300 OZ
(1.688 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
4584 contracts
(458,400 oz)
14.26 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
45,802 notices
4,580,200 OZ
142.463 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

We had 0 deposits into the dealer

 

 

total dealer deposits:  nil  oz

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Brinks  20,054.58 oz

ii) Into HSBC: 64,302.500 oz (2,000 kilobars)

 

 

 

 

total deposits: 84,356.580    oz

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  nil

We had 1  kilobar transactions  +

 

We had 2  4 KC bar volume transactions/13 contracts oi

 

 

 

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1 //    

 

customer to dealer: Loomis

63,464.100 oz was adjusted up to the dealer

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of JUNE registered a total of 5127 oi contracts of a LOSS of 1541 contracts.  We had 1994 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we gained A STRONG 453 contracts or an additional 45,300 oz of gold (1.41 TONNES) will stand in this very active delivery month of June.

After June we have the non active delivery month of July and here we had a GAIN of 64 contracts down to 3217 contracts.

Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI FELL by 2599 contracts DOWN to 332,759 contracts.

 

We had 543 notices filed today for 54,300 oz

 

FOR THE JUNE 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 543 contract(s) of which 45 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 347 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 75 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (45,802) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JUNE (5127 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (543 x 100 oz per contract) equals 5,038,600 OZ OR 156.72 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (45,802)x 100 oz + (5127 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (543) x 100 oz which equals 5,038,600 oz standing OR 156.72 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JUNE delivery month or any active/non active delivery month.

We gained an additional 453 contracts or 45300 oz will stand on this side of the pond.  Issuance of exchange for physicals is good today but.  It is still too costly for our crooked bankers to carry.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

3027.500 OZ  REMOVED TO THE PLEDGED ACCOUNT JAN 10.2020/Brinks//Manfra .553 tonnes removed may 26

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

322,144.443 oz PLEDGED  MARCH 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.020 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

19,290.600 oz Pledged May 8/2020   INT DELAWARE:  .600 TONNES

 

 

TOTAL PLEDGED GOLD NOW IN EFFECT:  528,072.303  OZ OR 16.425  TONNES

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 349.21 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 156.72 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  11,776,206.953 oz or 366.28 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (added March 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  322,144.443 oz (or 10.0200 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    19,290.600 oz  which cannot be settled:   (.600 tonnes)
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  21,026.754 oz which cannot be settled June 5 (.65402 tonnes)
total weight of pledged:  549,097.057 oz or 17.079 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 11,227,109.0  (349.21 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  11,227,109.0 (349.21 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  17,087,158.178 oz (532.31 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   28,863,365.131 oz 897,77 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   127.05 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  770.72 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JUNE 5/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2664 CONTRACTS FROM 168,156 UP TO 170,820(AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW ALL TIME RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON FEB 25.2020(244,710) ECLIPSING OUR PREVIOUS RECORD, AUGUST 25/2018 RECORD (244,196).  THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) . THE STRONG OI COMEX GAIN TODAY OCCURRED WITH OUR 8 CENT GAIN IN PRICING//THURSDAY. WE GAINED A TOTAL OF 3859 CONTRACTS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI (TWO EXCHANGES) OCCURRED WITH 1)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A TINY DECREASE IN  SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE JUNE DELIVERY MONTH, 3)  CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,5) STRONG COMEX GAIN IN OI AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR  8 CENT GAIN IN PRICE 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE

THE FRONT DELIVERY OF JUNE SAW 15 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS STANDING FOR A LOSS OF 6 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 5 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY SO WE LOST 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE AS THEY MORPHED INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

AFTER JUNE COMES THE VERY BIG DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY AND HERE THE OI LOST 1354 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 115,344 CONTRACTS. AUGUST SAW ANOTHER GAIN OF 2 CONTRACTS TO 12 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.. THE STRONG DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT SAW A GAIN OF 2662 CONTRACTS UP TO 32,915

 

 

We, today, had  4 notice(s) FILED  for 20,000 OZ for the JUNE, 2020 COMEX contract for silver

 

JUNE 5/2020

JUNE SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 36,330.74 oz
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
598,328.000 oz ??
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
4
CONTRACT(S)
(20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
11 contracts
 55,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  398 contracts

1,990,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii)into Scotia  598,328.000 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.22% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/314.220 million

 

total customer deposits today: 598,328.000    oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

 

 

i) Out of Delaware: 6093.700 oz

 

iii) Out of CNT   30,237.000  oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 36,330.74   oz

We had 0 adjustments

 

 

total dealer silver: 85.401 million

total dealer + customer silver:  313.700 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2020. contract month is represented by 4 contract(s) FOR 20,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 398 x 5,000 oz = 1,990,,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE.(15) and the number of notices served upon today 4 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 398 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (15)- number of notices served upon today 4) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month.equals 2,045,000 oz.

We LOST 1 contracts or an additional 5,000 oz will NOT stand for delivery as they morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus for their effort..

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 101,059 CONTRACTS // volume high/raid

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 69,042 CONTRACTS..,CONFIRMED VOLUME//low

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 69,042  CONTRACTS EQUATES to 345 million  OZ 49.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO- 1.09% ((JUNE 5/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.58% to NAV:   (JUNE 5/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.09%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.38 TRADING 16.30///NEGATIVE 0.47

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

 

JUNE 5//WITH GOLD DOWN $40.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.21 TONNES

JUNE 4//WITH GOLD UP $20.60: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1133.37 TONNES

JUNE 3//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 0.78 TONNES OF GLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.28 TONNES

JUNE 2//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.40 TONNES

JUNE 1//WITH GOLD UP $1.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES OF GOLD//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1123.14 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///GLD INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 28//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $.10 TODAY: A STRONG 2.34 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 26//WITH GOLD DOWN $23.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY://RESTS TONIGHT AT 1116.71 TONNES

MAY 22//WITH GOLD UP $13.05//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY:: A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.93 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT:  1116.71 TONNES

MAY 21//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1112.32 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1112.32 TONNES

MAY 19//WITH GOLD UP $10.60//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1113.78 TONNES

MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 9.06 TONNES./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1113.78 TONNES

MAY 15.WITH GOLD UP $16.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 12.58 TONNES/  INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.72 TONNES

MAY 14//WITH GOLD UP $19.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.14 TONNES

MAY 13//WITH GOLD UP $9.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 11.07 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.14 TONNES

MAY 12//WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.07 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.65 TONES..

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER ADDITION OF 5.85 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1081.65 TONNES

MAY 7/WITH GOLD UP $29.65 TODAY : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER ADDITION OF .41 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.80 TONNES

MAY 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $17.00 TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.68 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.39 TONES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER ADDITION OF 3.81 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.71 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 11.4 TONNES INTO THE GLD////GOLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.90 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD UP $8.45 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.50 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

JUNE 5/ GLD INVENTORY 1132.21 tonnes*

LAST;  835 TRADING DAYS:   +187.29 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD

 

LAST 735 TRADING DAYS://+362.49  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 648,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.663  MILLION OZ

JUNE 4//WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

 

JUNE 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 2//WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS 6.686 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 1//WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 466.629 MILLION OZ//

MAY 29//WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.796 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 463.273 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.660 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.477 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

MAY 26//WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.864 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ/

LAST 5 DAYS: SILVER UP 60 CENTS: INVENTORY  UP A WHOOPING 23.767 MILLION OZ///

MAY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.923 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 457.681 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20//WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY: A HUGE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 9.601 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.758 MILLION OZ

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 29 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.157 MILLION OZ//

MAY 18/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 48 CENTS TODAY: TWO BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV I.E. 2 PAPER DEPOSIT OF ( I) 8.39 MILLION OZ AND THEN ( 2) 8.109 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.048 MILLION OZ// (TOTAL DEPOSITS 16.500 MILLION OZ///)

MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 81 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.65 MILLION OZ.

MAY 14//WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.65 MILLION OZ

MAY 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.79 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.65 MILLION OZ//


MAY 12/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.076 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.861 MILLION OZ//

MAY 11.WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.785 MILLION OZ//

MAY 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.661 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..///INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.785 MILLION OZ//

MAY 7/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ///

MAY 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY:2 HUGE PAPER CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.i).A  LARGE 1.399 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER REMOVED FROM THE SLV//..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 411.427 MILLION OZ and ii) A LARGE 1.647 MILLION OZ OF PAPER SILVER ADDED TO THE SLV//  INVENTORY RESTS AT 413.124 MILLION OZ//


MAY 1/WITH SILVER FLAT IN PRICE: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 412.826 MILLION OZ///

 

JUNE 5.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

472.663 MILLION OZ.

END

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES//  GOLD LEASE RATES

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.35/ and libor 6 month duration 0.48

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

GOLD LENDING RATE: -1.87%

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASING RATES INCREASING BY A HUGE AMOUNT//GOLD SCARCITY AND CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN ALL OF THEIR GOLD LEASES

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.92%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.63

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.29%

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASING RATES  INCREASING BY A HUGE AMOUNT//GOLD SCARCITY AND CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN ALL OF THEIR GOLD LEASES

 

end

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Mish Shedlock totally misrepresents GATA

(Chris Powell/GATA)

Mish Shedlock misrepresents GATA

 Section: 

1:07p ET Thursday, June 4, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In his June 1 commentary, “Speculators Dump Gold But Price Goes Up Anyway” —

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/speculators-dump-gold-but-p…

— market analyst and money manager Mish Shedlock grossly misrepresents GATA with this assertion:

“Many gold analysts, from the mainstream to fringe groups such as the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, claim that they can predict what the gold price will do by adding up annual fabrication and investment demand (as well as de-hedging demand by miners) and contrasting the resulting total with annual supply (mine supply, central bank selling, disinvestment and scrap). In short, they analyze the gold market in the same manner as they would analyze the copper market.”

This is completely false and Shedlock provides no evidence for his assertion.

GATA does not claim that we can predict the gold price by calculating and integrating the variables Shedlock cites.

Rather, GATA exposes, documents, and challenges the government-instigated and underwritten manipulations of and interventions in the monetary metals markets, manipulations and interventions Shedlock never dares to acknowledge.

GATA’s documentation is archived here —

http://gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

— and much of it is summarized here:

http://gata.org/node/14839

If he ever gains any intellectual honesty, Shedlock is welcome to address it, document by document.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

In case you missed this yesterday, I am repeating this important interview for you

(Andrew Maguire/Bill Murphy/GATA)

London metals trader Andrew Maguire interviews GATA chairman on market manipulation

 Section: 

12:40p ET Thursday, June 4, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

On behalf of Kinesis Money, London metals trader Andrew Maguire today interviews GATA Chairman Bill Murphy about gold and silver market manipulation, the heavy involvement of JPMorganChase & Co., the diminishing effectiveness of the usual smashdowns in the market, and the growing tightness in the physical market for the monetary metals, which foreshadows big surges in prices. The interview is 46 minutes long and an be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSWd48VU7PQ

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0945/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0924   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 11.55 POINTS OR 0.40%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 167.99 POINTS OR 1.66%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 167.99 POINTS OR 0.74%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 96.75/Euro RISES TO 1.1337

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 38.32 and Brent: 41.30

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.29%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.41% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.55%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.70: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.34

3k Gold at $1703.00 silver at: 17.56   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 16/100 in roubles/dollar) 68.71

3m oil into the 38 dollar handle for WTI and 41 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.23 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9589 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0865 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.29%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.87% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.69%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.7763..

Stocks Soar On Fresh Stimulus Flood Ahead Of Worst Unemployment Print In US History

Just when it seemed that the record 40% rally from the March lows was coming to an end, as Treasury yields blew out and tech names rolled over on record volume, the euphoria came back with a vengeance, sending stocks around the globe and US futures surging as the delivery of both monetary and fiscal stimulus in Europe supplanted virus concerns and trade fears on the day the US is expected to report a record 19.1% unemployment rate (luckily, in “Jay’s market” trivia such as fundamentals does not matter).

On Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 became the first U.S. equity index to reclaim its all-time high, with the rebound driven partly by tech-related firms including Amazon.com Inc and Netflix. The broader Nasdaq Composite which is more closely watched than the Nasdaq 100, is just about 2% below its own record high, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes are 8% and 11% below their respective all-time highs.  The S&P 500 is on track for a third week of gains as VIX and V2X returned to the week’s lows, and the sliding dollar has fallen to the lowest since March, while Treasury yields jumped to 0.87%, rising above a key level of 0.84% that sees CTA turn short on Treasurys.

Boeing gained 4% premarket on continued optimism about a pickup in air travel a day after American Airlines Group Inc said it would boost its U.S. flight schedule next month. Vaccine maker Novavax jumped 14.9% after saying it would receive up to $60 million from the U.S. Department of Defense to fund manufacturing of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.

European equities rallied, with the Spanish IBEX outperforming peers, rising over 2%. Banks, autos and energy names lad broad based gains across sectors, after monetary stimulus from the ECB and fiscal stimulus from Frankfurt and Berlin exceeded expectations, and reports showed that Trump administration officials increasingly expect to spend up to $1 trillion in the next round of stimulus, even as Germany reported a record -25.8% drop in Industrial Orders.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, led by energy and finance, after rising in the last session. The Topix gained 0.5%, with Fujikyu and DLE rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4%, with Hunan Corun New Energy and Shangying Global posting the biggest advances.

Markets are riding a wave of enthusiasm as investors bet on a global economy awash with stimulus, while fears of more disruptions from social unrest have also reduced in the past two days, with the largely peaceful protests against the killing of a black man in police custody waning into Friday morning and emergency curfews in many cities being lifted.

“We probably have a window of maybe three months where data are going to be continuing to improve,” Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho International, told Bloomberg TV. “That is going to drive a very supportive backdrop for credit spreads to keep tightening and for equities to be rallying.”

 

In rates, the sharp bear-steepening continued in Treasuries ahead of May employment report, with 10- to 30-year yields cheaper by 5bp to 6bp, front-end yields by about 1bp. 5s30s spread topped 125bp for first time since December 2016. Treasury 10-year yields around 0.87%, near cheapest levels of the day and highest since end of March; Thursday’s breach of top of narrow range in place since late March led to CTA accounts shedding long positions, which has added momentum to this week’s bear-steepening trend.

In Europe, yield curves also bear steepened with several ECB speakers commenting on the appropriateness of Thursday’s policy boost. Peripheral spreads continued Thursday’s tightening to core; Bund and Gilt futures rise off the lows with Treasuries sidelined ahead of today’s payroll report.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar index extended Asia’s decline. AUD leads G-10 peers, regaining a 0.70-handle for the first time in five months. Havens currencies including CHF and JPY lag.

In commodities, Crude futures rallied with front-month Brent rising through $41 to fresh highs for the week after OPEC+ reached a tentative agreement to extend record production cuts. Spot gold grinds sideways near $1,710/oz, base metals rally with LME lead outperforming.

The focus for traders this morning will be the U.S. jobs report, which is likely to reflect a deepening recession across the country. But despite the grim economic news, markets are continuing to a historic rally. Friday’s report from the Labor Department is likely to show the U.S. unemployment rate shooting up to almost 20% in May, a new post-World War Two record, but investors have so far shrugged off dire data on hopes that an easing of coronavirus-led lockdowns would revive business activity.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1% to 3,142.00
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 158.88
  • MXAPJ up 1% to 512.71
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 22,863.73
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,612.48
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.7% to 24,770.41
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,930.80
  • Sensex up 0.9% to 34,288.23
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 5,998.72
  • Kospi up 1.4% to 2,181.87
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 370.98
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to -0.307%
  • Euro up 0.08% to $1.1347
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 13.2 bps to 1.25%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 0.559%
  • Brent futures up 2.8% to $41.11/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,709.41
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.64

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Traders are having another look at market pricing for the outlook for Federal Reserve rates. The latest improvement in risk sentiment has damped chatter about negative rates and some investors seem willing to bet on when to expect a rate hike premium appearing
  • OPEC+ is set to extend production cuts to prop up the oil market after a breakthrough in high-stakes negotiations, with the alliance meeting on Saturday to sign off on the deal
  • The latest round of talks between the U.K. and European Union over their future relationship is set to finish without a breakthrough, with both sides stuck after another week of difficult negotiations
  • Fears of deflation justified the European Central Bank’s decision to ramp up its emergency bond- buying program, according to policy maker Pablo Hernandez de Cos
  • The German economy has passed the trough of its coronavirus recession and is starting to grow again, the Bundesbank said, endorsing the government’s sweeping fiscal stimulus that should underpin the rebound. Output this year is forecast to shrink 7.1%, before bouncing back in the subsequent two years
  • Austria has nearly doubled its borrowing plans in order to help cushion its economy from the worst of the coronavirus crisis. The country will now raise about 60 billion euros ($68 billion) from debt operations in 2020, an all-time high, according to the Treasury. At least 35 billion euros will be by way of government bond offerings
  • The Swiss National Bank’s holdings of foreign exchange rose by a double-digit billion franc figure for a second month running, evidence of the heavy interventions to limit pressure on the currency

Asian equity markets were choppy with the region cautious as participants awaited the looming NFP jobs data and after the rally in stocks petered out for its global peers which saw Wall Street end a choppy session mixed albeit with a negative bias. ASX 200 (+0.1%) was dragged by notable weakness in tech and healthcare names but with downside in the index stemmed by resilience in financials. Furthermore, the government announced to increase rules on foreign investment into key industries which raised some questions regarding the ramifications its protectionism could have on its ties with its largest trading partner China although PM Morrison suggested the investment reforms are unlikely to increase ongoing tensions. Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) was initially lower but gradually reversed the downside amid currency weakness, while Hang Seng (+1.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) traded indecisively after the PBoC’s operations resulted to a CNY 450bln weekly net liquidity drain and following mixed US-China rhetoric including USTR Lighthizer expressing confidence regarding the Phase 1 deal and with the US to continue permitting Chinese passenger flights in reciprocation to a similar gesture by China, although plenty of criticism remained following the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre and Hong Kong’s passage of the national anthem bill. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued following the resumption of the bear steepening seen in USTs, but with some of the losses in 10yr JGBs briefly retraced after prices rebounded off a floor at 151.55 and with the BoJ present in the market for nearly 1.1tln of JGBs in which it boosted purchase amounts in 5yr-10yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Japan Household Spending Falls Most on Record Amid Pandemic
  • NetEase Is Said to Raise $2.7 Billion in Hong Kong Listing
  • Lawmakers in Eight Countries Form New Alliance to Counter China
  • Hong Kong Dollar Sees Inflow Surge, Staring Down Capital Flight

European equity futures are on course for respectable weekly gains with Eurostoxx 50 eyeing double-digit weekly gains as we stand. The morning has seen the core bourses extending on the upside with sentiment potentially underpinned amid comments from USTR who said he feels “very good” about the Phase 1 US-China trade deal and that the report that China was not honouring the soybean purchases was false. That being said, more recent headlines from China vowed to retaliate against the US’ 33 Chinese entity list in relation to the Uygur minority population. However, details remain light – the news prompted some losses in equities, but nonetheless, Euro Stoxx 50 (+1.7%) holds onto gains of almost 2%. Desks also note that there is a significant cyclical/value bias as sectors such as autos, banks and energy all post substantial gains – with the SX7E European banking index poised to end the with over 13% higher W/W. The sectorial breakdown sees banks (+3.5%) topping the charts amid the higher yield environment and with Oil and & Gas closely following amid gains in the oil complex. Travel & Leisure meanwhile surges with some pointing to impetus form the America Air update yesterday – Air France (+12.3%), Carnival (+10.9%) trade at the top of the Stoxx 600. Broader sectors are mostly higher with cyclicals clearly outpacing defensives, while Staples and Healthcare reside in the red. In terms of individual movers – Deutsche Wohnen (+1.5%) holds onto opening gains after being tipped to replace Lufthansa (+6.0%) – whose shares see tailwind from the broader sector performance. Telefonica (+3.8%) meanwhile is underpinned amid talks of an imminent sale of its German Towers unit.

Top European News

  • SNB Reserves Rose in May Reflecting Bigger Interventions
  • Austria Doubles 2020 Borrowing to $68 Billion on Virus Fallout
  • Billionaire-Owned Firms Tap State Aid In U.K. Loan Program
  • ECB’s De Cos Says Rising Deflation Risk Warranted More Stimulus

In FX, the Antipodean Dollars have both overcome several wobbles on the way to fresh highs against their rival, with the Kiwi and Aussie now trying to establish footholds above new big figures, at 0.6500 and 0.7000 respectively. A firm rebound in risk sentiment has helped the Nzd and Aud extend their winning streaks, but the former has also gleaned impetus from upbeat comments overnight via NZ Finance Minister Robinson noting a faster recovery in the domestic economy and pick up in retail sales. Hence, the cross remains well off post-RBA peaks and pivoting 1.0750, with some mild hindrance for the Aud on strained relations with its main global trading partner and investment reforms designed to tighten the criteria for foreign entities.

  • NOK/GBP – The next best majors, as the Norwegian Crown continues its bull run irrespective of more bleak data in the form of manufacturing output and GDP while perhaps drawing more encouragement from accompanying remarks from the Stats Office that economic activity appears to be improving. Eur/Nok has dipped below 10.5400 even though the Euro remains relatively strong in its own right post-ECB, and another rise in oil prices on reports that OPEC and OPEC+ are now set to meet tomorrow is no doubt keep the cross on a downward trajectory. Meanwhile, the Pound forged more gains at the expense of the Buck in Cable terms when stops were tripped at resistance just ahead of 1.2650 and more when the 200 DMA (1.2678) was breached, but hit buffers before 1.2700 despite Eur/Gbp remaining much nearer the bottom of 0.9009-0.8954 parameters awaiting a speech from EU’s Barnier after latest Brexit trade talks with the UK that are expected to end with no breakthrough, albeit apparently more constructive and useful this week per EU sources.
  • CAD/EUR/JPY/CHF – All more narrowly mixed vs their US counterpart as the DXY bounces from a deeper 96.438 low to 96.849 in wake of latest Chinese warnings about countermeasures against US sanctions on firms, but with the Loonie supported by the aforementioned upturn in crude and also mega option expiry interest at 1.3500 (2.3 bn). Elsewhere, the Euro extended ECB inspired advances to circa 1.1384, ignoring more weak Eurozone data and mixed GC rhetoric, though taking heed of the China headlines, as did the Yen and Franc to various degrees when paring some declines from around 109.40 and 0.9580, though still undermined by overall safe-haven unwinding and technical impulses as Usd/Jpy breached another upside chart level (109.38 was the April 6 lower high) and Eur/Chf straddles 1.0850 after breaking back above the 200 DMA.
  • EM – Mixed starts to Friday’s session and in the run up to potentially pivotal US jobs data, as the Yuan maintains bullish momentum and petro-currencies derive more traction from crude in contrast to the Lira that displays some nerves ahead of Turkey’s next ratings review at the hands of Moody’s and President Erdogan’s decision to reimpose lockdown over the coming weekend due a rise in COVID-19 cases..

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month future continue to grind higher on the final trading session of the week with a few factors at play in the energy complex. On the OPEC front, a meeting has reportedly scheduled for 13:00BST and OPEC+ for 15:00BST on June 6th, according to delegates – Russian Energy Minister Novak confirmed the date. However, early signs indicating that Mexico might have objections to extending the current OPEC+ pact – which may prove to be somewhat of a deja-vu from the April meeting. In terms of the agreement, aside from the pledge for full compliance, Saudi Arabia and Russia reportedly agreed on a preliminary 1-month extension on existing OPEC+ oil cuts, according to sources. Meanwhile, Gulf OPEC members (Saudi, UAE and Kuwait) are reportedly not discussing deeper cuts than the voluntary over-compliance of 1.18mln BPD in June. Sources also added that Saudi Arabia is set wind down on voluntary over-compliance to bring 1mln BPD of production back online. In terms of other factors – with US hurricane season looming, Tropical depression Cristobal is set to strengthen and head over to the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend – potentially shuttering the several oil refineries as it makes landfall. The upside in oil prices is also underpinned by the current risk appetite across the marketplace as prices also tracked stocks higher early-doors. WTI July reclaimed a USD 38/bbl (vs. low 37.05/bbl) while Brent breached USD 41/bbl having printed an intraday base at 39.72/bbl. Elsewhere, spot gold remains lacklustre just above USD 1700/oz and with little action ahead of the US labour market report. Copper prices meanwhile extend on upside in-line with the risk sentiment and stocks as it overlooks US-Sino difficulties for now.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.3, prior 34.2
  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. -7.5m, prior -20.5m
  • 8:30am: Change in Private Payrolls, est. -6.75m, prior -19.6m
  • 8:30am: Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -400,000, prior -1.33m
  • 8:30am: Unemployment Rate, est. 19.1%, prior 14.7%
  • 8:30am: Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
  • 8:30am: Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 4.7%
  • 8:30am: Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 8.5%, prior 7.9%
  • 8:30am: Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 60.1%, prior 60.2%
  • 8:30am: Underemployment Rate, prior 22.8%
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $20.0b deficit, prior $12.0b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Following the remarkable recent rally for risk assets, the advance ran out of a little steam yesterday as economic data and news on the coronavirus acted as a reminder of the difficulties investors are still likely to face over the coming weeks and months, even in the face of yet more stimulus. On that the main news yesterday came from the ECB, who announced that they would be increasing the size of their Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by a further €600bn, which with the original €750bn announced back in March brings the total quantity of potential purchases up to €1.35tn. In addition, they announced that the horizon for net purchases will be extended from the end of 2020 until at least the end of June 2021, while maturing principal payments from securities purchased under the PEPP will be reinvested until at least the end of 2022. All-in-all this is actually a bit more than was expected by the consensus, with a majority of respondents to Bloomberg’s survey pointing to a smaller €500bn boost to purchases. DB were at €750bn.

In terms of the market response, sovereign debt rallied strongly in southern European countries. The spread of Italian 10yr yields over bunds fell by -16.7bps to 174bps, its tightest level in over 2 months, while the Spanish spread fell by -8.8bps to its tightest level in 3 months. The euro also rallied strongly, up by +0.93% against the US dollar to its highest level in nearly 3 months. That marked the 8th consecutive daily advance for the single currency, which is its longest streak of gains since 2011. Inflation expectations moved higher as well after the announcements, with five-year forward five-year inflation swaps for the Euro Area increasing +5.5bps to 1.07%, their highest level since early March.

Our European economists have more to say on the ECB (link here), but one thing they had a positive interpretation of was President Lagarde’s comments on the German constitutional court ruling. Lagarde said that she was “confident that a good solution will be found”, and noted it was up to the German government and parliament to come up with that. As far as the ECB is concerned, they’re under the jurisdiction of the ECJ rather than national courts. But Lagarde also said that the minutes of their latest meeting would show that the Governing Council debated the effectiveness, efficiency and cost/benefits of the “package of measures together”, something our European economists interpreted as referring to the entire monetary policy stance, including the PSPP that the German court ruled on. So this could be interpreted as the ECB indirectly satisfying the requirement from the German court for a new decision on the PSPP, which puts the pressure on the Bundesbank to ensure that the Bundestag’s review of proportionality is successful.

On the topic of stimulus, the Trump administration expects to spend another $1 trillion in a further round of spending to boost the economy. While Senate Majority leader McConnell has been trying to slow government expenditure in recent weeks, he has conceded that another stimulus bill may be needed of that amount, but that there are no plans to do so before the 3 July two-week recess. This would put any action at least 7 weeks away.

Today, attention will turn to the US jobs report for May, where we are once again expecting some historic milestones to be reached, albeit not in a good way. Following a record -20.537m decline in nonfarm payrolls for April, DB’s US economists write in their preview (link here) that they’re expecting a further -5.1m decline in May, with the unemployment rate soaring to 18.1%, its highest since the Great Depression in the 1930s. It is worth noting that there are substantial risks around this, and indeed the data is still likely to be messy when it comes to how to classify those affected by the coronavirus. Last month’s report saw the BLS note that many workers had been classified as employed but “not at work for other reasons”, when they probably should have been in the “unemployed on temporary layoff” category. So that could affect where the numbers come out.

Going into the jobs report, the good news is that the ADP’s report of private payrolls on Wednesday saw a far smaller decline than expected of -2.76m, rather than the -9m decline anticipated. On the other hand, yesterday’s jobless claims weren’t quite as good as hoped for, with the number of initial claims in the week through May 30 at 1.877m (vs. 1.833m expected). That’s the 9th consecutive weekly decline though, but the number still remains at nearly triple the pre-Covid record for weekly claims, which was at “only” 695k. Furthermore, the continuing claims number rose to 21.487m (vs. 20m expected), suggesting that the improvement seen the previous week didn’t mark the turning point that many had hoped for.

Overnight, it’s been another fairly mixed session for markets in the absence of any fresh newsflow. The biggest gain has been reserved for the Kospi (+0.89%) while the Nikkei (+0.20%) is also up. The Hang Seng is flat, while bourses in China are broadly down -0.25%. Futures on the S&P 500 are trading up +0.48% as we type. Elsewhere, WTI oil prices are little changed despite the news yesterday that Saudi Arabia and Russia have clinched a deal with Iraq and the cartel could meet as soon as this weekend to ratify it.

Yesterday we heard from US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who said that he feels “very good” about the phase 1 trade deal with China, which was agreed to in January. He believes that China is doing enough to honour the pact during the pandemic. He cited the more than $100m of soybeans purchased by China this week, during a virtual event held by the Economic Club of New York. This refutes reports that Beijing had not been keeping up with its commitments on commodity purchases. When asked about the President’s recent remarks on the World Trade Organisation, Lighthizer said he does not favour the US pulling out of the WTO. The remarks as a whole broke from the recent war of words between the two countries over the past 3 weeks and struck a more conciliatory tone. This is good for risk assets broadly, even if it did not prop them up yesterday.

Back to markets and yesterday’s other moves, the S&P 500 fell back by -0.34% to end its run of 4 successive gains, and just its second daily loss in the last 10 sessions. In Europe the STOXX 600 also fell back -0.72%. Banks outperformed on both sides of the Atlantic however as sovereign bond yields in core countries continued to rise, while American Airlines led the S&P with a +41.10% move higher after they announced they’d be flying 55% of their July 2019 domestic capacity next month. Asian airline stocks have also rallied this morning on the back of American Airlines news. In fixed income, 10yr US Treasury yields were up +7.8bps, climbing above 0.8% for the first time since late March, and 10yr bund yields were also up +3.4bps. The dollar continued to lose ground though, falling -0.62% to be down for a 6th session running.

Finally, there wasn’t a great deal of economic data out yesterday, but the construction PMIs from Germany (40.1) and the UK (28.9) both saw a rebound from their April readings. We also had April’s Euro Area retail sales, which fell by a smaller-than-expected -11.7% (vs. -15.0% expected). From the US, the trade deficit in April came in at $49.4bn, but notably the combined value of US exports and imports was down to $352bn, its lowest since May 2010.

To the day ahead now, as previously mentioned the US jobs report for May is likely to be the main highlight. Other data out includes the Canadian employment report for May, along with German factory orders and Italian retail sales for April. It’s also the last day in the current round of post-Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.55 POINTS OR 0.40%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 404.11 POINTS OR 1.66%   /The Nikkei closed UP 167.99 POINTS OR 0.74%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .07%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0945 /Oil UP TO 38.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.30 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0945 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0924 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY [PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC USA RIOTS//  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

China adopts for the first time personal bankruptcy laws as many face financial ruin.  Before this, you just carried your debt to the grave

(zerohedge)

Shenzen Adopts China’s First Personal Bankruptcy Laws As Small Businesses, Freelancers Face Financial Ruin

Surprisingly enough, considering that it’s a Communist State founded – at least, in theory – on the principles of social justice and equality, China doesn’t have personal bankruptcy laws, and individuals who are saddled with debt, medical or otherwise, are typically held liable for these debts until death.

However, back in 2007, as Beijing shifted its drift toward ‘economic liberalization’ into hyperdrive, the country adopted corporate bankruptcy laws. Corporate bankruptcies have surged in recent years, and earlier this year, we discussed expectations that the number for 2020 would be even higher, as the coronavirus upends the Chinese economy.

Now, Shenzhen, known as the “Silicon Valley” of the mainland, has drafted China’s first personal bankruptcy laws as the southern city prepares for what’s expected to be a wave of bankruptcies, particularly among the freelancers and smaller contractors common in China’s tech sector. The rules are intended to give “honest and unfortunate” debtors the chance to escape the mire of debt and make a comeback.

Despite corporate bankruptcy laws nationwide since 2007, individuals are still held personally liable for business debts, which makes it virtually impossible for entrepreneurs to be ‘okay’ with failure, like American entrepreneur gurus have advised.

China’s personal bankruptcy process bears certain – shall we say – “Chinese characteristics”. For example, the state will monitor the finances of those who file for personal bankruptcy for three years.

The draft rules, open for public comment until June 18, allow Shenzhen residents who cannot pay their debts to apply for personal bankruptcy if they have paid social insurance in the city for at least three years.

Once approved, applicants will spend at least three years in a supervised “probation” period before all or part of their debts are wiped clean. During this time their expenditure will be supervised, the draft rules said.

Other major Chinese cities are expected to follow in Shenzen’s footsteps as Beijing cranks up the stimulus and hastily reopens its economy. To prevent a second wave, it has embraced dramatic tactics like mass surveillance testing, which were used to test every citizen of Wuhan, something China purportedly finished doing last week (affording to state media).

Reuters claimed 76 companies filed for bankruptcy with the Shenzhen Intermediate People’s Court in May, up 85% from a year earlier. So-called individual businesses (in many cases freelancers) making up 3.3 million of the province’s commercial entities, and accounted for a large share of those filing.

“After the epidemic, it’s unclear just how many business owners will be forced on to the country’s defaulter list if they fail,” said Yin Yanrong, a partner in the Guangdong Baocheng law firm.

On the other hand, creditors who owe more than 500,000 yuan ($70,228.66) will also be able to petition for liquidation of debtor companies.

China has built its explosive growth on a mountain of bad debt. What’s going to happen when investors in the country are forced to take losses on “safe” securities for the first time?

END
Blain on HSBC’s slow disintegration…
(Bill Blain)

Blain: The Tragedy Of HSBC

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“A waiter, again unbidden, brought the chessboard and the current issue of The Times, with the page turned down at the chess problem.”

While America burns, the dollar tumbles, stock markets soar, Germany announces a massive bailout programme which dwarfs the pennies Italy desperately needs, the ECB gets ready for another money dump, and UK politicians grumble about queues… life goes on…

There is something deeply tragic about yesterday’s announcements from HSBC and Standard Chartered supporting the imposition of China’s Security Law in Hong Kong. We can all act shocked and damn them for supping with the devil, but neither bank had any real choice but to make the unpalatable decision to support the unsupportable. Both know their futures depend too much on China’s patronage to survive without kow-towing.

Yesterday, they each wrote the first lines of the final few paragraphs of their own obituaries.  

10-years ago I wrote in the Porridge why HSBC was my top bank stock. I said something along the lines of while other banks will remain vulnerable, HSBC had the franchise, strength and depth to survive and thrive. Its dividend policy was strong and would provide dull, boring, predictable returns for the long-term. The Long-term is so over.

Read the comments following any article about the two Hong Kong banks this morning and are they full of earnest virtue signalling from angry clients who say they will close their accounts. I will probably switch mine.. but only because now there is zero chance the service will get any better.

Timing is everything. I laughed out loud at a post on Linked-In from HSBC claiming leadership in ESG matters and Green funding. Really… this is not the time for HSBC to be bragging about its ethical credentials.

The sad reality is HSBC has become a patron of the Chestnut Tree Café – the bar where the purged characters from 1984 spend their last few months in isolation, irrelevancy and waiting for the axe to fall. HSBC and Standard Chartered’ future is window dressing the new Hong Kong. HSBC has become as yesterday as Deutsche Bank.

It could have been so different.

In the early 2000s HSBC’s tag line was The World’s Local Bank. The Hexagon Logo dominated airports and appeared everywhere. Its ambition was to generate one third of its profits from each of the main global markets; Asia, Europe and North America. By market capitalisation it was the largest bank on the planet. When it bought US sub-prime credit lender Household in 2002, it was a clear signal the bank was on the move with expansion plans everywhere.

I joined HSBC in 2002. It was a bit of a shock after 10 years at an aggressive but highly innovative US investment bank. 

HSBC people were lovely. They were friendly, they were nice. Yet, they were fiercely tribal and regional in their mindset. There was a cadre of International Officers who’d been drilled in the HSBC tau of things since they joined straight from school. The regarded outside hires as mere hired hands. You could not argue with the IOs – they knew best. And then there were the old Hong Kong hands, trading hotshots from Hong Kong who knew even better. They’d been big fish in the small pool that was then Asia. They couldn’t grasp that Wall Street and City traders swam in much larger more aggressive oceans. The firm was naturally hierarchical in the way only a thoroughly English bank could be – even though its DNA was broadly Presbyterian Scots!

Yet, the bank failed to make much a mark on the global markets. It owned multiple diverse and unconnected business, united only by the logo. The way the bank’s independently minded German operation operated had nothing to do with the London hub. The Paris operation delighted in doing things differently. Asia had little interest in what New York or London were doing. It sold global clients a grand vision of access to Asia – but any second rate US firm knew more of the top Asian accounts.

Successive waves of hired guns were hired to enliven its sub-par investment banking activities, but without much enthusiasm from across the firm which remained siloed. The senior management were good, knew the issues and the bank– they were some of the best in the business. But they were trying to run an enormous bloated bureaucracy of dissimilar banking businesses, investment and commercial banking operations, consumer banking around the globe, an Asian franchise, while trying to grow new businesses in areas they perceived the bank understrength. They faced pushback from local fiefdoms, and became jacks of all and masters of nothing.

The crunch came following the global financial crisis in 2007/08. HSBC was the only UK bank that avoided disaster and bailout. (So did Barclays, but by the skin of their teeth and some dubious chicanery which Amanda Stavely will no-doubt shortly reveal in court.) Household went from being an inspired purchase to toxicity overnight – and dragged the whole North American operation down. A succession of banking scandals in Latin America followed – HSBC discovering to their shock that putting the logo on a Mexican bank did not suddenly cleanse it of endemic corruption and drug money laundering.

The result was a bank that was no longer managed from growth and the future, but in order to placate the regulators.  

This is the critical lesson of HSBC. The brand was brilliant but hollow. Its’ businesses were individually good, but collectively poor. Rationalising them into a strong single force was a massive ask – and would have required more than the best banking management on the planet. But that management was totally focused on placating the regulators to avoid them purging the bank. At one time the board seriously feared the US SEC might close them down as more South American scandals came to light.

While US banks thrived through the 20-Teens HSBC plodded and became more bloated. Its ambitions a global bank vanished like an early morning mist. It contracted. Asia’s share of profitability – to be blunt, Hong Kong savers – rose through 80%. It became classically squeezed in its home market. The levels of dissatisfaction with its consumer banking division means it’s among the most complained about banks.

I figured out how bad things were a few years ago when I walked into the Premier Branch of HSBC at its Canary Wharf Global HQ a few years ago. No one greeted me. There were last week’s papers sprawled across a table, and dead pot plant in the corner coated in dust. I pressed the desk bell, and a bored looking girl sauntered out to tell me to go downstairs to the public branch because she was too busy to help. I sold all my stock soon after.

Except that it is, it wasn’t the fault of senior management. They tried. But the bureaucracy won. Banks run to please regulators rather than customers seldom thrive. Across the bank the middle management are shuffling papers and waiting for the a long-delayed axe to fall as cuts are finally enacted.

It’s a shame. The Home for Scottish Bank Clerks will join the list of other banks that once were contenders…..

END
USA drops its ban on Chinese carriers: now says limit will be 2 flights per week
(zerohedge)

US Drops Ban On Chinese Carriers, Says Limit Of 2 Flights Allowed Per Week

Yesterday, a puzzling headline hit the tape that felt incongruous to us because instead of retaliating against the White House for a new ban on Chinese carriers, Beijing instead appeared to turn the other cheek by allowing foreign carriers to return to China’s skies.

Now we know why.

With the Dow up 1000 points and the Trump Administration eager to pump stocks even further with news of a deescalation, however tenuous, the Trump administration announced on Friday that it had scrapped plans to ban Chinese carriers from the US; instead, the DOT will allow Chinese airlines to re-start two flights per week.

Meanwhile, Larry Kudlow said during an interview Friday that there’s “more to come” from the White House regarding China and its crackdown on Hong Kong. Kudlow added that the US is “engaging” with China on the ‘Phase 1’ trade deal.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

The Finns are now becoming very frugal: they are revolting to the latest ECB helicopter money/this morning’s events

(zerohedge)

The Finns Are Revolting – ECB Suffers Another Einstein Moment

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Finland, Finland, Finland, it’s a great place to be…”

The Finns are revolting.  They are good Europeans, but the Frugal Four just became Five.  Their parliament has apparently rejected the EU’s 750 bln Coronavirus Next Generation Recovery Fund proposals – in its current form.  The Finns say they are willing to talk, but want something that is largely loans, much shorter in duration, and much much smaller.

The Finns are unique among the Axis powers from the last European Unpleasantness – they paid their debts after finding themselves on the losing side, and their economy wasn’t rebuilt and bailed out through the Marshall plan.  They aren’t convinced they should be paying for the woes of Southern Europe.  One comment this morning summed up a growing Eurosceptic thread: “We don’t have the Mafia, we pay our debts, and our bridges don’t fall down.” 

As the song about Finland says; “You’re so sadly neglected, and often ignored. A poor second to Belgium when going abroad.” Finland is certainly not foremost in the minds of the Brussels Eurocratocracy.

But unhappy Finns (you will know because they will be smiling – Finns are generally happy when they have something to be unhappy about), are just one problem for the EU this morning. ECB President Christine Lagarde is juggling a lot of balls in the air after Europe’s Central Bank announced yet another few hundred billion of QE Infinity to stem the crisis, juice inflation and pull Europe together.

Yet, the ECB is doing essentially what its been doing ever since Mario Draghi set “whatever It takes” as the EU’s one and only guiding principal about a million years ago (July 26 2012). Whatever it takes – yep, that’ll sort it every time..

Except doing whatever it takes hasn’t solved much…

Lagarde would do well to recall the Einstein principle: “The definition of insanity is doing the same things over and over again, but expecting different results.” 

The brutal reality is while Draghi might have been right – his words saved the Euro, no one is actually willing to ask what that “Whatever” is. What is the whatever that Europe has to do to sort itself?

It’s not necessarily more and more QE Infinity and Negative Interest Rate Policies (NIRP). To be blunt, these two monetary confabulations have achieved the square root of f*** all for European growth and recovery over the past 8 years. While ECB policies haven’t been impressive or effective – their tenacity has been!

It’s not the ECB’s fault. The truth that no one dares speak across Europe is that the ECB is great idea, but fatally flawed unless monetary union is matched by fiscal and political union (the two have to go together), which is only possible if Europe is truly united. Which it isn’t and isn’t likely to be with this generation. (I have high hopes for the future tho.. which I will touch on below.)

In the absence of political union, all the ECB has done is treat Europe’s gaping monetary wounds with sticky plasters. QE saved Europe from bleeding out over the Sovereign debt crisis of 2012 – but it hasn’t addressed the symptoms underlying that sovereign crisis – it has no mandate to do so, except urging austerity as defined by Euro rules about GDP debt ratios.

When the media report the market’s joy at Italian bond yields tightening after Lagarde through another pile of money at the problem – they weren’t cheering because Italy’s dismal economic under performance is cured.. Nope the market was cheering because all that free money is going into their pockets.

And dare I suggest it, but I suspect Christine Lagarde tells Porky Pies. (Non English Readers – a porky pie is a mistruth, a lie.) The ECB is telling us this plan is going to work – European growth will be right back on post-virus track by 2022. Well of course Lagarde lies.. she was a French politician for years! (Which might be why she got the ECB gig – last thing Macron wants is a better pie baker in Paris than himself…)

There is nothing “awe-inspiring” about the numbers the ECB is banding about anymore. They are just numbers. Their comments about inflation are meaningless and imaginary. They aren’t achieving very much except creating rising doubt as problems pile up under the carpets they’ve been swept under.

Across Europe nationalists are asking difficult questions. In the face of the European dream, they remain very much a minority – but an important one. The reason the Frugal Five are unwilling to sign blank queues to bail out the South is not because they are bad Europeans… it’s because they are good Europeans and know it has to change. They know if Europe can’t move the Union narrative forward, then eventually the monetary façade of the Euro is going to crack.

Everyone wants European Unity, but who wants to pay for it? Everyone agrees Europe needs rules, but not these rules.

And if Finland is a problem, then Germany is the planet sized asteroid heading for Brussels. What about the Germans? The German constitutional court is still waiting for a justification of QE policies. They’ve made clear they consider the actions of the ECB to be “potentially” ultra vires. Yesterdays chuck another “few hundred billion” into the QE Infinity Pot isn’t likely to have impressed them…

As Marcus Ashworth of BBerg pointed out y’day Lagarde only expects European inflation to hit 1.3% in 2022 – she was saying the increase in QE Infinity Bond Buying is directly linked to her inflation forecasts, a bland attempt to satisfy the Germans and their inflation fears. Politics, politics.

After explaining above why Europe is such an awful mess, what is the right market strategy?

Clearly it’s to embrace this latest “Whatever it Takes” moment and buy more Italian bonds!  Keep buying them as long as the euphoria lasts, and then sell them. Wait for them to widen as doubts emerge, wait for Lagarde to say something positive (some iteration of “Do Whatever it Takes”) and buy them again. Repeat.

At some point….

At some point Europe is going to have an enormous mess to clean up.. but not tomorrow….

Back on Planet Earth. 

I’ve held off from saying much about the riots in the US. They’ve been shocking – but there has been an incredible amount of media hype around the violence, and a spectacular amount of fake news about legions of Ultra-Right Survivalists pretending to be Antifa Anarchists, while the Antifa are dressing as Red-necks. If it wasn’t so serious it would be funny. Its distracting from the real issue – which is justice. If we want efficient markets, then social justice and equality in all things is a critical component. Adam Smith said it in the Theory of Moral Sentiments.

What’s interesting is how the anger has quickly spread around the globe – embraced by young people of every hue and race. Black Lives Matter demonstrations are taking place everywhere. My kids – in their 20s – feel very strongly about this – Jenny was making placards last night to demonstrate tomorrow. I’m rather pleased about that.  How strongly Jack and Jenny feel about racism, equality and that Black Lives Matter gives me hope that racism will be cured.

40 years ago I was carrying a “Maggie Maggie Maggie! Out Out Out!” banner as we marched down Princess Street in Edinburgh complaining about Education Cuts, the treatment of miners or whatever. Social justice was important, but racism wasn’t something on the Scottish agenda back then. When I moved to London and stumbled into the City… I evolved into a “Things Can Only Get Better” Champagne Socialist in 1997, before losing my faith last year because of Corbyn. Yet the beliefs I held in my 20s remain an essential part of me today.

Racism won’t be cured overnight. For instance, it’s taken 50 years for Homophobia to become utterly repellent. Racism has been around for millennia, but perhaps in 40 years time, the emphasis young people are now putting on it, equality and social justice will see Racism finally eradicated.

And I’m also encouraged to see that young people across Europe tend to count themselves European first… perhaps a truly united Europe is idea that’s time will yet come!

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/USA

Iran releases a USA Navy vet held for over 2 years
(zerohedge)

“Thank You, Iran!” Trump Hails Release Of Captive Navy Vet, Issues Rare Praise Of Tehran

Could this mark the beginning of the end for the US ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran? Is this the big diplomatic “opening” that will dramatically soften tensions?

On Thursday evening President Trump in an unprecedented move actually praised the Islamic Republic after Tehran released US Navy veteran Michael White, who faced a decade behind bars as essentially a political prisoner after the Iranians arrested and convicted him for “insulting” the Supreme Leader, among other things, in June 2018.

White languished for two years behind bars while the deadly coronavirus pandemic ravaged the country’s overpopulated prisons, resulting in Iranian furloughing tens of thousands of jailed citizens.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I just got off the phone with former American hostage Michael White, who is now in Zurich after being released from Iran. He will be on a U.S. plane shortly, and is COMING HOME…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…to the UNITED STATES! We have now brought more than 40 American hostages and detainees back home since I took office. Thank you to Iran, it shows a deal is possible!

“Thank you to Iran, it shows a deal is possible!” Trump in a surprise tweet said, announcing that White “will be on a U.S. plane shortly, and is COMING HOME.”

The “deal” references the Trump administration’s efforts to get Iran back to the table to ultimately “negotiation a better deal” following the president initially pulling the US out of the Obama-brokered JCPOA nuclear deal in May 2018.

White said he had contracted coronavirus while held in Mashhad central prison. This was a crucial factor in the diplomatic opening which led to his release, according to Reuters:

Iran’s decision to release American Michael White and the U.S. move to let dual citizen Majid Taheri visit Iran, both of which were confirmed by Iran’s foreign minister, appeared to be a rare instance of U.S.-Iranian cooperation.

A White House spokesman expressed hope that White’s release could lead to an opening in the bitter relationship.

 

Michael White and US Special Envoy for Iran Brian Hook in Zurich, Switzerland. Image: Reuters/State Dept.

White has already been released to US custody in Zurich, and is being flown back to US soil:

“I’m improving. I did contract coronavirus in the Mashhad central prison prior to going out on furlough. But I’m recovering pretty decently,” White told Fox News Channel on the tarmac of Zurich airport, adding he had been “in poor shape.”

In the years following Trump ditching the nuclear deal, especially since last summer, tensions have skyrocketed into direct conflict especially centered in Iraq, where in January the Pentagon assassinated IRGC Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani, which could have easily sparked broader war.

But there’s been a bit of a cooling since the start of the global pandemic, which hit Iran especially hard, causing the US and UK to intensify efforts to get their citizens – often dual nationals languishing in political prisons on generic “spying” charges – released.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I am to happy announce that Navy Veteran, Michael White, who has been detained by Iran for 683 days, is on a Swiss plane that just left Iranian Airspace. We expect him to be home with his family in America very soon….

Apparently those intense efforts have been rewarded, given as Trump said 40 American hostages been released since the president took office.

The US for its part has also lately released Iranian academics and scientists, typically held on US soil on low-level crimes, as part of good faith deals of late.

end
TURKEY/GREECE
Just the beginning…Greeks wearing military fatigues opened fire on a Turkish police boat near the Greek/Turkish border.  The Greeks fired form the Greek side of things.
This will escalate as Turkey badly needs the oil/gas discovered on the Cyprus/Greek/Israeli side.
(AlMasdarNews)

Shots Fired On Turkish Police Boat From Greek Border As Athens ‘Readies’ Military Options

Via AlMasdarNews.com,

Multiple Turkish news sources announced Friday that a Greek group wearing military fatigues opened fire on a Turkish police boat while the latter was patrolling the Mrayij River near the Turkish-Greek border.

The news agency said that the Special Operations Police found near the Bashiurt border police station, the body of one of the asylum seekers beside a tree, while they were patrolling the Mrayij River.

Image via Edirne – Anadolu Agency

They explained that a military camouflaged group opened fire from the Greek side towards the Special Operations Police boat while photographing the body.”

The statement noted that “the police immediately took their positions and fired warning shots in the air, which led to the ceasefire from the Greek side.”

“A group of 10 to 12 people in military camouflage outfit opened harassment fire on the special forces boat,” the statement added.

Meanwhile, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panayotopoulos said in a television interview  that his country is ready for everything in order to protect its sovereign rights, including military action against Turkey in the event of provocations.

Serious War@serious_war_eng

🇹🇷🇬🇷Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panayotopoulos said the country is ready to use force to protect sovereignty from Turkey, if necessary. “We are ready for military action and make it clear that we will take any measures to protect the sovereign rights of Greece”@serious_war_eng

Embedded video

He pointed out that his ministry notes the increasing Turkish provocations in recent times. When asked if Greece was ready for a military solution to the dispute with Turkey, as the Greek Prime Minister’s advisor said, Panayotopoulos replied: “Exactly so.”

“The chancellor said that we are preparing for any situation. Of course, everything is possible, including military action. We do not want that, but we want to make it clear that we will do our best to protect our sovereign rights as possible,” the minister added.

A few days ago, the Turkish government newspaper published a request for a Turkish state oil company to obtain a license toexplore for oil and gas in an area near the Greek islands. Then, on June 3, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis sent a letter to the European Union leadership on “Turkish provocations”. Greece announced that all of this would lead to a Turkish-European crisis.

On Thursday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced in a joint press conference with Prime Minister of the Libyan Government of National Accord Fayez al-Sarraj in Ankara that Turkey intends, together with the Libyan government, to explore and develop oil and gas fields in the Mediterranean.

END

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil jumps ahead of the OPEC meeting slated for Saturday

(zerohedge)

Crude Jumps Ahead Of OPEC+ Meeting Slated For Saturday 

Update (0845ET): WTI prices accelerated higher after the jobs data…

*  *  *

Crude prices jumped on Friday morning following a report that OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, will hold an online meeting on Saturday to discuss the possibility of extending historic output cuts by at least a month amid collapsing demand for crude and crude products following coronavirus lockdowns.

Russia’s energy ministry said Friday during a conference call that OPEC+’s Saturday meeting will discuss oil output policy.

“The conditions right now warrant hopefully successful meetings. Coordination is underway to hold OPEC and OPEC+ meetings tomorrow afternoon,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told Reuters.

Reuters announced positive chatter from Saudi officials in a series of headlines:

  • CONDITIONS NOW WARRANT “HOPEFULLY SUCCESSFUL” OPEC+ MEETINGS ON SATURDAY – SAUDI ENERGY MIN TELLS REUTERS
  • COORDINATION IS UNDER WAY TO HOLD OPEC AND OPEC+ MEETINGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON – SAUDI ENERGY MIN

The sentiment is positive heading into OPEC+’s meeting, which reaffirms a possible breakthrough with getting Iraq, one of the worst members in terms of compliance with output cuts, on board with a cut extension through July.

“Prices are up with the meeting scheduled for tomorrow. There was lots of confusion … so it looks like they found a way forward,” Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix consultancy said.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s largest oil producers, are expected to extend their historic output cuts of 9.7 million bpd into July. It appears most members will comply with output cuts as a move to raise oil prices.

With increasing signs of Chinese demand for oil, the probabilities of a deal to extend cuts are increasing into tomorrow’s meeting. However, if output cuts are seen — there is still a demand issue from major economies as it appears no V-shaped recovery this year.

Now here is where it gets tricky for OPEC: If a deal materializes tomorrow — crude prices will likely surge with the emergence of US shale — something Saudi Arabia and Russia do not want to see — if there’s no deal tomorrow — then the cut would go from 9.7 bpd to 7.7 bpd — and put an end to the several month rally in crude.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/BRAZIL, MEXICO/THE GLOBE

 

 

UK COVID-19 Deaths Pass 40k As Brazil, Mexico Report Explosion Of New Cases: Live Updates

Now that the jobs recovery is officially underway thanks to the latest monthly jobs report from the BLS (a dead cat bounce? unpossible) it seems nobody really cares about COVID-19 anymore. At least not in the US.

After all, NYC, the most visible hot spot in the US, reported zero confirmed fatalities yesterday for the first time since March (though three deaths from untested patients may be attributable to the virus).

However, investors who turn a blind eye to data do so at their own peril. There are now three countries whose outbreaks are now widely seen as out of control, and one of those countries lies just south of the border: Mexico reported a record jump in new cases – 4,422 in a single day – as the countrywide total hit 105,680. Many have accused the government of deliberately undercounting.

Last night, Brazil surpassed Italy as the country with the third most deaths in the world. Although the outbreaks have eased in some countries, the virus continues to spread at a more or less steady rate, with about 100,000 new cases being reported every day as new hot spots emerge. The World Health Organization said on Friday that some countries have seen “upticks” in COVID-19 cases as lockdowns ease.

“On upticks, yes we have seen in countries around the world – I’m not talking specifically about Europe – when the lockdowns ease, when the social distancing measures ease, people sometimes interpret this as ‘OK, it’s over’,”  WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told a UN briefing in Geneva.

“It’s not over. It’s not over until there is no virus anywhere in the world,” she said, adding that US protesters must also take precautions when gathering.

Along with Mexico, South Africa reported 3,267 new cases of the virus, the country’s largest jump by far, bringing its total to 40,792.

Even as South Africa eases its coronavirus lockdown, infection numbers have started to rise quickly and President Cyril Ramaphosa has said he is particularly concerned about the province around Cape Town, known as Western Cape, one of the country’s leading tourist destinations. The country also recorded 651 out of the the country’s total of 848 deaths.

As UK PM BoJo faces a torrent of criticism over his plan to slowly unwind the country’s lockdown, Ireland said it would accelerate its plan to ease coronavirus lockdown restrictions in the coming days, according to PM Leo Varadkar.

“Today I can confirm that it is safe to move to phase two of the plan to reopen our country starting on Monday,” Varadkar said. “I’m also announcing an acceleration of the roadmap.”

Meanwhile, the UK has become the second country after the US to surpass 40k deaths. Exactly 40,261 people have died since the beginning of the outbreak, up 357 from Thursday. The US, by comparison, has recorded 108,000 deaths.

In Europe, the UK is behind only Sweden in deaths per capita.

To be sure, true global comparisons may not be possible for months, according to experts who spoke with the BBC.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday walked back a decision to impose a new, 2-day weekend curfew in 15 of the country’s provinces, as well as cancelling a weekend lockdown in a country that has one of the largest COVID-19 outbreaks in Western Asia.

Source: BBC

Another day has passed, along with another study by the University of Oxford that found Hydroxychloroquine had little impact on seriously ill patients. Keep in mind, doctors have said the antiviral, which has been used for decades to treat malaria, would likely work best on early-stage patients, particularly those who are at high-risk of seeing symptoms advance.

The biggest takeaway: the number of new cases has been steadily rising by a rate of 100,000 a day as new hotspots emerge while the hotspots of yesterday – in Europe and in the US – see infections wane.

India’s COVID-19 fatalities have passed 6,000 after recording 260 deaths in the last 24 hours. The country registered 9,304 new cases in yet another record single-day spike in infections, bringing its total to 216,919 cases with 6,075 deaths, the health ministry reported on Thursday.

Around the world, ~6.6 million coronavirus cases have been confirmed, according to JHU. More than 389,000 people have died, including some 108,000 in the United States. More than 2.8 million people have recovered from the disease.

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1337 UP .0001 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/RIOTING IN USA /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.23 UP 0.090 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2656   UP   0.0050  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3440 DOWN .0062 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 1 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1317 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 11.55 POINTS OR 0.40% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 404.11 POINTS OR 1.66%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,07%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 404.11 POINTS OR 1.66%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.55 POINTS OR 0.40%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 07% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 167.99  POINTS OR 0.74%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1706.20

silver:$17.65-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.87% !!! UP 4 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.69 UP 6  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.75 UP 8 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.55% UP 3  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: + 04%  UP 3   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.57%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,42 UP 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 85 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.27% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.69% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1319  DOWN     .0017 or 17 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.65 UP .505 OR YEN DOWN 51  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2724 UP .01179 POUND UP 118  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 97 basis points to 1.3400

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0864    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0770  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.7845 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.04%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 10 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.93 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.75 UP 311 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.76 UP 8  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 142.86  2.25%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 417.12 POINTS OR 3.36%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 185.81 POINTS 3.71%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 305.80 POINTS or 4.40%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 553.48 POINTS OR 2.82%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 39.04 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 42.06 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    68.33  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.83 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 83 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.27 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  39.31//

 

 

BRENT :  42.14

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.90…plus 8 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.66…plus 3 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1293 ( DOWN 42   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.63 UP .482 (YEN DOWN 48 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.94 UP 26 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2668 DOWN 62  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.77

 

 

the Russian rouble 68.69   DOWN 0.46 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 46 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3441 UP 62 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.27%

 

The Dow closed UP 829.16 POINTS OR 3.15%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 198.27 POINTS OR 2.06%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  24.16 CLOSED DOWN 1.72

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.317%//libor dropping like a stone

LIBOR/OIS:  .258%

TED SPREAD  (3 MONTH TREASURY VS LIBOR) = .162%

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Soar To Record Highs Amid Bond Bloodbath, Momentum Massacre

This was a big week for markets.

Trannies were up over 10% on the week, Nasdaq lagged by “only” gaining 3%…

 

AAPL record high today.

Best 50-day rally in stocks in 90 years…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq 100 and Composite hit record highs, S&P is less than 1% away from green YTD…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Biggest weekly crash in momentum on record…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Banks stocks exploded higher (second best week since Nov 2016, Trump election)

 

Source: Bloomberg

Biggest weekly gain for Airline stocks… ever…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Biggest weekly spike in 30Y yields since Nov 2016 (Trump Election)

 

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve has steepened for 5 days straight, second biggest weekly steepening sine Nov 2016 (Trump election)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Biggest weekly short-squeeze in two months (second biggest since March 2009)

Source: Bloomberg

Stalingrad & Poorski@Stalingrad_Poor

Dollar is down 10 days in a row, biggest weekly drop since March and biggest 3-week drop since Oct 2011…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos ended the week higher led by Ethereum…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were mixed with Crude and copper soaring as PMs tumbled (despite the weak dollar)…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, “SURPRISE!” – The Citi US Macro Surprise Index exploded in its v-shaped manner today after the stunning (birth/death adjustment-enabled) jobs beat…

Source: Bloomberg

And while May was the month of overnight gains, June has seen the market rise during the night… and day…

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/this morning/USA

Before the Jobs report numbers were announced:

Circuit-Breaker Triggered As Treasury Yields Spike Above CTA Liquidation “Red Line”

US Treasury yields are blowing out once again this morning with 10Y yields now above 85bps and well out of their 3-month trading range…

Crucially, as we detailed previously, this break above 84bps means trend-followers are likely becoming forced sellers and creating a self-perpetuating surge in yields...

According to Nomura’s CTA position index (representing our estimate of the positioning of CTAs based on real-time data) CTAs to still have a net long position in 10yr UST futures, “although with a conspicuous notch recently where that position appears to have hit a ceiling.” This means thatshould the pressure created by global macro hedge funds’ sell-off of USTs increase to the point that the 10yr UST yield climbs above the “red line” that exists at around 0.84%, CTAs would likely be drawn into exiting their long positions in TY to cut their losses.

The stress is most obvious in the Ultras, which triggered circuit-breakers this morning…

As the yield curve steepening accelerates…

Is March’s chaotic bond market about to make a reappearance?

end

After the jobs announcement:

Treasury Yields Explode Higher After Jobs Beat, Cross CTA Liquidation “Red Line”

 

Update (0840ET): Yields exploded higher after the massive beat in jobs data.

Long-Bond Futures prices crashed…

As 10Y yields spiked above 95bps (up 12bps on the day)…

In South Korea, It Just Feels Like School’s Out Forever

*  *  *

US Treasury yields are blowing out once again this morning with 10Y yields now above 85bps and well out of their 3-month trading range…

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA//jobs report

“THESE NUMBERS ARE INCREDIBLE” Trump Booms After Job Report Shock: May Payrolls Soars By 2.5 Million, Unemployment Rate Drops, Crushing Bearish Expectations

In our preview of today’s historic job’s report we said that on one hand “the labor picture will be far worse than anything observed before in US history, eclipsing the darkest days of the Great Depression”; on the other nobody will care and markets will likely soar as the report “tells us what we already know” and there is “little in the BLS report that will offer any forward-looking insight – that will depend on progress regarding the reopening of economies, and official support measures.”

Well, take all that and throw it out of the window, because moments ago the BLS shocked markets when it reported that, contrary to week after week of millions in initial jobless claims, and in line with the much more optimistic ADP report, not only did May payrolls not drop by the 7.5 million expected drop, but actually SOARED by 2.5 million, crushing expectations, and indicating that already in May when the country was under widespread lockdowns, jobs came soaring back.

The May payrolls print was revised down by 492,000, from -881,000 to -1.4 million, and the change for April was revised down by 150,000, from -20.5 million to -20.7 million. With these revisions, employment in March and April  combined was 642,000 lower than previously reported. After revisions, job losses have averaged 6.5 million per month over the past 3 months.

Commenting on the number, the BLS said that “total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2.5 million in May, reflecting a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to contain it. Employment fell by 1.4 million and 20.7 million, respectively, in March and April. Despite the over-the-month increase, nonfarm  employment in May was 13 percent below its February level. Large employment increases occurred in May in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. Government employment continued to decline sharply.”

Just as shocking is that the unemployment rate which was expected to surge to a record 19.1% in May from 14.7% in April, actually declined in May to 13.3% (although Black unemployment did rise modestly).

Total employment, as measured by the household survey, rose by 3.8 million in May to 137.2 million, following a large decline in April. After an 8.7 percentage-point decline in April, the employment-population ratio rose by 1.5 percentage points to 52.8 percent in May.

And in continuing the bizarro world of now completely meaningless data, the average hourly earnings dropped from last month’s revised 8.0% actually dropped to 6.7%, also mocking expectations of an increase to 8.5%.

The average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 29 cents to $29.75, following a gain of $1.35 in April. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees decreased by 14 cents to $25.00 in May. The decreases in average hourly earnings largely reflect job gains among lower-paid workers; this change put downward pressure on the average hourly earnings estimates.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.5 hour to 34.7 hours in May. In manufacturing, the workweek rose by 0.8 hour to 38.9 hours, and overtime increased by 0.3 hour to 2.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.6 hour to 34.1 hours. While employees in most industries saw an increase in their workweeks in May, the employment changes, especially in industries with shorter workweeks, complicate monthly comparisons of the average weekly hours estimates.

* * *

How “political” was today’s report? We will leave it to readers to decide especially when moments after the report Trump, who knew the numbers yesterday, boomed on his twitter account that “THESE NUMBERS ARE INCREDIBLE”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

THESE NUMBERS ARE INCREDIBLE! @MariaBartiromo

Political or not, the report noted that the number of unemployed persons who were on temporary layoff decreased by 2.7 million in May to 15.3 million, following a sharp increase of 16.2 million in April. Among those not on temporary layoff, the number of permanent job losers continued to rise, increasing by 295,000 in May to 2.3 million.

Also in May, the number of unemployed persons who were jobless less than 5 weeks decreased by 10.4 million to 3.9 millionThese individuals made up 18.5 percent of the unemployed. The number of unemployed persons who were jobless 5 to 14 weeks rose by 7.8 million to 14.8 million, accounting for about 70.8 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.2 million, increased by 225,000 over the month and represented 5.6 percent of the unemployed.

The labor force participation rate increased by 0.6 percentage point in May to 60.8%, following a decrease of 2.5% in April.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 10.6 million, changed little in May, but was up by 6.3 million since February. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. This group includes persons who usually work full time and persons who usually work part time.

The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 9.0 million, declined by 954,000 in May, after increasing by 4.4 million in April. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the last 4 weeks or were unavailable to take a job.

Looking at a breakdown by industry

  • Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 1.2 million, following losses of 7.5 million in April and 743,000 in March. Over the month, employment in food services and drinking places rose by 1.4 million, accounting for about half of the gain in total nonfarm employment. May’s gain in food services and drinking places followed steep declines in April and March (-6.1 million combined). In contrast, employment in the accommodation industry fell in May (-148,000) and has declined by 1.1 million since February.
  • Construction employment increased by 464,000 in May, gaining back almost half of April’s decline (-995,000). Much of the gain occurred in specialty trade contractors (+325,000), with growth about equally split between the residential and nonresidential components. Job gains also occurred in construction of buildings (+105,000), largely in residential building.
  • Employment increased by 424,000 in education and health services in May, after a decrease of 2.6 million in April. Health care employment increased by 312,000 over the month, with gains in offices of dentists (+245,000), offices of other health practitioners (+73,000), and offices of physicians (+51,000). Elsewhere in health care, job losses continued in nursing and residential care facilities (-37,000) and hospitals (-27,000). Employment increased in the social assistance industry (+78,000), reflecting increases in child day care services (+44,000) and individual and family services (+29,000). Employment in private education rose by 33,000 over the month.
  • Employment in retail trade rose by 368,000, after a loss of 2.3 million in April. Over-the-month job gains occurred in clothing and clothing accessories stores (+95,000), automobile dealers (+85,000), and general merchandise stores (+84,000). By contrast, job losses continued in electronics and appliance stores (-95,000) and in auto parts, accessories, and tire stores (-36,000).
  • Employment increased in the other services industry in May (+272,000), following a decline of 1.3 million in April. About two-thirds of the May increase occurred in personal and laundry services (+182,000).
  • Manufacturing employment rose by 225,000, with gains about evenly split between the durable and nondurable goods components. In April, manufacturing employment declined by 1.3 million, with about two-thirds of the loss occurring in the durable goods component. Within durable goods, employment gains in May were led by motor vehicles and parts (+28,000), fabricated metal products (+25,000), and machinery (+23,000). Within nondurable goods, job gains occurred in plastics and rubber products (+30,000) and food manufacturing (+25,000).
  • Professional and business services added 127,000 jobs in May, after shedding 2.2 million jobs in April. Over the month, employment rose in services to buildings and dwellings (+68,000) and temporary help services (+39,000), while employment declined in management of companies and enterprises (-22,000).
  • Financial activities added 33,000 jobs over the month, following a loss of 264,000 jobs in April. In May, employment gains occurred in real estate and rental and leasing (+24,000) and in credit intermediation and related activities (+7,000).
  • Wholesale trade employment was up by 21,000 in May, largely reflecting job gains in its nondurable goods component (+13,000). In April, wholesale trade employment declined by 383,000.
  • Employment continued to decline in government (-585,000), following a drop of 963,000 in April. Employment in local government was down by 487,000 in May. Local government education accounted for almost two-thirds of the decrease (-310,000), reflecting school closures. Employment also continued to decline in state government (-84,000), particularly in state education (-63,000).
  • Employment in information fell by 38,000 in May, following a decline of 272,000 in April.
  • Mining continued to lose jobs in May (-20,000), with most of the decline occurring in support activities for mining (-16,000). Mining employment has declined by 77,000 over the past 3 months.
  • Transportation and warehousing jobs decreased in May (-19,000), after an April decline of 553,000. Air transportation lost 50,000 jobs over the month, following a loss of 79,000 jobs in April. In May, employment rose by 12,000 in couriers and messengers and 10,000 in transit and ground passenger transportation.

So does this fantastic jobs report mean the Fed has to hike soon?

 end

While the uSA was in lockdown the B?D added 345,000 jobs

what a crock of $%^#

(zerohedge)

This Makes No Sense: In Month When US Was Shut Down, BLS Estimated That 345K New Businesses Were Formed

As people dig deeper in the entrails of the most bizarre – and most politicized – jobs report in history, they keep finding more and more irregularities.

Consider this: according to the BLS report, which was based on a survey week from May 10th through May 16th when virtually all of the US was still shut down, the government decided that a record number of new businesses were formed. According to the BLS’s Birth/Death model which is used to adjust the raw payrolls data for estimated new business openings and closures, a record 345K new jobs were created due to new businesses opening in a month when – we will repeat again – the US was largely shut down! This also means that over 60% of the business closures from the month of April (April Birth/Death -553K) were somehow undone in a month when the US was still mostly closed down.

Needless to say, this was entirely a statistical adjustment in the “eye of the beholder”, one which even the BLS felt ashamed of, because in a little noticed addendum to the jobs report, the BLS announced it had made “changes” to its net birth-death model due to the coronavirus pandemic, changes which apparently included the modeling of massive business reopenings when millions of small businesses were shutting down. From the BLS:

These two methodological changes are the following:

  • A portion of both reported zeros and returns from zero in the current month from the sample were used in estimation to better account for the fact that business births and deaths will not offset.
  • Current sample growth rates were included in the net birth-death forecasting model to better account for the changing relationships between business openings and closings.

Firstly, BLS included a proportion of reports that fell to zero employment and reports that returned from zero employment in the current month in the over-the-month change of the sample-based estimates. Typically, reports with zero employment in either the previous or current month are not included in estimation. To account for an excess amount of reports going to zero employment as well as reports returning from zero employment, CES calculated the probabilities that either a reported zero or a return from zero exceeded what would be expected for the month. These “excess zeroes” and “excess returns from zero” partially account for drops in employment (when more business deaths than are usually observed in historical population data occur) and for increases in employment (when there are more business births than normal). More specifically, and due to time limitations for implementation, “excess zeroes” were used in our March final, April first and second preliminary, and May first preliminary estimates; “excess returns from zero” were used in our March final, April second preliminary, and May first preliminary estimates.

Secondly, BLS adjusted the portion of business births and deaths that cannot be accounted for using our sample data by including more recent information. Net birth-death forecasts are normally modeled using an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) based on 5 years of historical birth-death residual values that end 9 months before the forecast of the current month. Instead of using only historical data—data that would not accurately account for how the labor market has changed due to COVID-19—a regression variable that includes data up to the current month was included in the model. The regression variable is the CES sample-based ratio of over-the-month change, known as the sample link, for each of the major industry sectors. Each major industry sector sample link was used for the basic-level industries only within that sector. Using additional regression variables in the net birth-death forecasts accounted for 345,000 in employment for May at the total private level .

The punchline from the above: “Using additional regression variables in the net birth-death forecasts accounted for 345,000 in employment for May at the total private level.” In short instead of another 553K drop in jobs due to massive shutterings as was the case in April, the BLS decided to “add” 375K jobs because, well… it felt like it. And that is how you get an almost 1 million swing in monthly payrolls based on nothing more than a statistical revision.

But wait, there’s more.

According to the American Dental Association, there are just over 200,000 dentists in the US. So how surprising it must be that at a time (as a reminder the survey week was from May 10th through May 16th) when most dental offices across the US were still shuttered (and in places like California they still are), a record 245K dentist office jobs were added, effectively undoing half of all the April job losses in this job category.

Finally there was this, from the report:

… there was also a large number of workers who were classified as employed but absent from work. As was the case in March and April, household survey interviewers were instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent that not all such workers were so classified. BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue.

If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to “other reasons” (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis).

How can one explain any of this? The only possible explanation is that after decades of China stealing US technology, the BLS finally reverse-engineered China’s own economic model spreadsheet where any “data” can be goalseeked to be exactly what one wants it to be.

 end
My goodness! what garbage do these guys produce!
(zerohedge)

BLS Admits “Survey Error” May Have Reduced Unemployment Rate By Up To 3%

Earlier we pointed out some statistical aberrations that helped explain some of the shocking surprise in today’s jobs report. But none other than the BLS itself admitted that a “misclassification error” led to the unemployment rate being as much as 3% higher than reported.

Here is what the BLS said about adjustments to the household survey as a result of the Coronavirus shutdowns:

… there was also a large number of workers who were classified as employed but absent from work. As was the case in March and April, household survey interviewers were instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoffHowever, it is apparent that not all such workers were so classified.

If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to “other reasons” (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis).

So the BLS knows there is an error and is hoping to fix it…

BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue.”

… but not yet:

However, according to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses.”

One can only imagine what other “survey errors” were made but not fixed for the sake of “data integrity.”

END

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Insane!!

Minneapolis City Council Mulls Plan To “Abolish” Police Department, Ninth Night Of Demonstrations Largely Peaceful

As protests continue with no end in sight, marchers returned to the streets for a ninth night of demonstrations on Wednesday for what were largely peaceful demonstrations, marred by a couple of examples of police violence. According to the AP, Wednesday marked the second night that protests were “subdued”, following elevated charges against the officers involved in Floyd’s killing, as well as a start-studded memorial service in Minneapolis that featured the Rev. Al Sharpton and many of George Floyd’s family members.

According to the AP, the quieter mood was inspired by the new and upgraded criminal charges against the officers involved in Floyd’s arrest, a more conciliatory approach by police (in many areas, police marched with them); along with the realization that the burst of violence following Floyd’s killing wasn’t sustainable.

“Personally, I think you can’t riot everyday for almost a week,” said Costa Smith, 26, who was protesting in downtown Atlanta.

Still, protesters have shown no signs that the marches will stop any time soon. And with millions of unemployed Americans, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the reaction to Floyd’s killings become an entrenched movement that continues for months, like Occupy Wall Street.

On protester in NYC told an AP reporter that there are “a lot more nights to go” of marching because protesters hadn’t got what they wanted.” Floyd’s brother Terrence appeared in Brooklyn, energizing the marchers.

During the first in a series of memorials for Floyd, the Rev. Al Sharpton urged those gathered Thursday “to stand up in George’s name and say, ‘Get your knee off our necks!'”

In Texas, protesters welcomed Fort Worth officers joining the front of a march, while police in Austin also walked with dozens of members of the University of Texas football squad as they made their way from campus to the state Capitol to honor Floyd’s memory. After arriving, they all took a knee for the 8 minute 46 seconds, which symbolizes the amount of time Floyd was on the ground.

“This protest won’t just stop here,” junior safety Caden Sterns said. “To the white community…if you want change like you say you do, you must change. What I mean is, you must realize, and the oppressor must realize, you are oppressing.”

Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms marched with protesters downtown and told the crowd through a megaphone that “there is something better on the other side of this.”

“We are in the midst of a movement in this country,” she said. “But it’s going to be incumbent upon all of us to be able to get together and articulate more than our anger. We got to be able to articulate what we want as our solutions.”

In spite of all of these positive feelings, the evening was marred by two incidents of police violence, one of which led to the immediate suspension of two officers in Buffalo after they pushed a frail elderly citizen to the ground, causing him to start bleeding out of his ear and likely nearly killing him.

David Begnaud

@DavidBegnaud

BREAKING NOW: I just confirmed, the 2 officers seen shoving the elderly man in this video have been suspended IMMEDIATELY, according to the Buffalo police commissioner.

Embedded video

In Vallejho, a city in the Bay Area, an officer shot and killed a protester who was kneeling with his hands up. The officer later said he believed a hammer in the man’s pocket was a firearm, according to the Guardian.

Meanwhile, back in Minneapolis, the city council said they’re looking into a plan to “dismantle” the Minneapolis Police Department and replace it with a new “public safety” organization. One council member suggesting replacing the traditional police department with a more holistic “public safety” department geared toward violence prevention and community services. Social workers or medics could respond to situations once handled by police, she suggested, like drug overdoses, according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

Around the White House, the Washington Post reports that the perimeter has continued to expand with each passing night. Here’s an infographic depicting the perimeter as of Thursday evening.

Source: WaPo

Mayor Jacob Frey says he’d support “deep, structural reforms” to the department, but not complete abolition of the agency. The level of support among the council members for the abolition vote is unclear.

Whatever the case may be, we should know soon enough as the city council prepares to vote Friday on reforms related to the police department.

end

Michael Every on the markets ..

(Michael Every)

Rabobank: “Markets Are No Longer The Signal We Can Look To As Any Kind Of Indicator”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Global Samizdat

This is going to be another shocking US payrolls day. How does one even begin to describe the most important data series in the world for markets recording a drop of 7.5m in May according to consensus expectations, on the back of 20.5m job losses for April? Even if 80% of these jobs bounce back quickly as the economy reopens –and lockdown now appears to be totally over in people’s minds in the US– we still face an appalling labor-market future. Wage growth? Please! Wage cuts will loom as an atomised, desperate labor force takes what it can get. Given that underlying socio-economic conditions were hardly healthy to begin with for those not riding the asset gravy-train, things look grim. One could even imagine large-scale street protests and/or rioting breaking out….but what am I talking about: we are already there.

Of course, with the rare exception of a dip in stocks yesterday, which was far higher up the list of today’s Bloomberg headlines than another looming payrolls disaster, none of this matters. Not only are stocks way, way up, but key FX says “risk on!” and bond yields are rising sharply too. US 10s, for example, are up from 0.54% on 9 March to 0.82% at time of writing. Yes, that’s a small move in the bigger picture; yes, the economy is new ‘reopening’ in order to protest; and yes, it’s still a level that one would never have expected to see outside the readership of this Daily or of our equally-gloomy Rates Strategy Team. Yet a new OPEC+ oil deal today aside, where is the reason for optimism that any reflation is coming in a post-virus US economy where the perennial labour vs. capital struggle is now an arm-wrestle between Sheldon in the Big Bang Theory and Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson?

One would think such simple truths would be covered in the financial market press. They aren’t, for the most part: as I was told by a journalist talking to me on a separate but key global issue yesterday, no matter how interesting the facts I had presented were, the editorial line of what the story was going to be (the opposite conclusion) had been set in stone from the start. They were powerless to change the narrative.

No matter. One would think such simple truths would still be covered by financial market analysts. They aren’t, for the most part: how many have read any Marx or his intellectual protégés, from Kalecki to Minsky to Piketty, who have pointed out negative rates, financial collapse, and that inequality does not just go away by itself?

No matter. One would think such simple truths would nonetheless be reflected in financial markets themselvesOF COURSE THEY AREN’T given what central banks are doing! Yesterday the ECB offered up another EUR600bn in bond purchases that will stretch out until summer 2021. How can markets reflect fundamentals when there are no fundamentals that matter for markets above that liquidity? How can financial analysts reflect anything but that simple liquidity dynamic too? The shallower, the less-well-versed in theory, history, and reality their call is, the better it proves. Just look where central bank billions and trillions are flowing, and follow that trail: nothing else matters. This is not financial repression. It is reality repression.

It seems appropriate on another earth-shatteringly bad US payrolls day that is nonetheless likely to see further risk-on moves across ‘markets’ to recall the old adage about the Soviet economic system: “We pretend to work and they pretend to pay us”. For me there were always worrying parallels between that statement and the low pay, low productivity ‘quandary’ that OECD economies have slumped into ever since they adopted neoliberal ‘efficiency’. Yet things are now even worse. In ‘financial markets’ we can add: “We pretend to trade and they pretend to regulate.” There is no regulation: there is asset-price targeting. And there is no ‘trading’: just a reflection of the orders of the monetary Commissars ‘looking out for the good of society’.

Of course, this won’t end well. It is already ending badly. When even Elon Musk is on Twitter arguing that monopolies like Amazon are bad and need to be broken up, one might want to pay attention. It is just that ‘markets’ are no longer the signal we can look to as any kind of indicator any more than Goskomstat was a guide to what Soviet life was actually like.

Speaking of Goskomstat, the Global Times has recently blared out it is “just a matter of time” before China overtakes the US. Technically this will come in Q2 2020 given the Atlanta Now projection of a near 50% drop in US GDP – but of course this is only temporary. Most ‘market’ analysts find it hard to grasp that deeply-troubled as the US is, China’s prospects are not much brighter if an alliance of other major economies rally against it on trade, technology, capital flows, and security issues. In that kind of scenario one can realistically project Chinese GDP growth to grind down to around 2% to match that of the US, meaning that after another few years of gap-closing China levels off at around 75% of the size of the US economy – and never overtakes it before relative demographic differences then put things into reverse. How many business models and management-consultant straight-line growth projections and financial market forecasts go out of the window if that happens?

In which case, note that yesterday India and Australia signed a mutual co-operation pact to use each other’s military bases and to develop common standards on communication technology (i.e., 5G). The Global Times response to India’s invite to the upcoming, expanded G7 was already that “if India hastily joins a small circle that perceives China as an imaginary enemy, China-India relations will deteriorate.” Expect angrier retorts ahead – which have already been seen vs. Australia. Also note that today has seen the launch of #IPAC, the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, “an international cross-party group of legislators to reform the approach of democratic countries to China.” This is not anything to do with the Belt and Road Initiative. It’s more the Belt and Roadblock Initiative.

Of course, it’s better for your near-term financial safety to ignore today’s GlobalSamizdat and keep following the official line from ‘Pravda’ or ‘Trud’. Yet please note that two days before the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 the UK communist newspaper The Morning Star proclaimed: “What we are seeing now is not the crisis of Socialism, but the crisis of the outdated model of Socialism….Those who are ready to bury Socialism, because of the difficulties we are going through will be disappointed. The cause of the Great October Revolution is immortal.” On the evening of the day the Berlin Wall began to collapse its headline was “GDR UNVEILS REFORMS PACKAGE”

Happy and productive Friday, Comrades!

Day ahead

Today will see German factory orders (expected -19.9%) and Canadian employment (seen -500K) ahead of that key payrolls release, where -7,500K is the consensus, taking the unemployment rate up to 19.1% and the underemployment rate to over 22%. Average hourly earnings are expected up 1.0% m/m and 8.5% y/y due to data distortions around federal handouts – but don’t expect that to last.

end

A good look at where we are today:  The sheer numbers makes California a case for a huge federal bailout along with many other Democratic states.

(John Rubino)

Illusion Of Prosperity Shattered As California Makes Its Case For Federal Bailout

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

Just a few months ago, California was running surpluses and spreading the wealth around — at least to its affluent voters and public sector employees — as if the good times were here to stay.

Fast forward to the present and it’s all over. Tech stock IPOs – a huge source of capital gains tax revenue for the home of Silicon Valley – have evaporated. Those “unicorn” companies – not yet public but worth over a billion dollars each – are doing “down rounds” that value them as the risky start-ups most of them are. The formerly booming housing market has ground to a halt. And millions of service industry businesses like restaurants and nightclubs have closed permanently.

But the state government still has to pretend to balance its books, so now comes the tragicomedy of negotiations between the governor and state legislators over where to find the needed $50+ billion. Here’s how the Associated Press covers it in an article bafflingly titled California lawmakers agree to close $54.3 billion budget gap:

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — California’s Legislative leaders on Wednesday rejected billions of dollars in budget cuts to public schools and health care services that Gov. Gavin Newsom had proposed, setting up a fight with the governor over how to close the state’s estimated $54.3 billion budget deficit.

Flush with cash just six months ago, California’s revenues have plummeted since March after Newsom ordered everyone to stay home to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Since then, more than 5 million people have filed for unemployment benefits.

Newsom, a Democrat, and the state’s Democratic-dominated Legislature have pleaded with Congress to send the state more money to help cover that shortfall — so far without success. Last month, Newsom proposed a new spending plan that would cut billions from public schools and eliminate some health benefits for people unless Congress sent the state more money by July 1.

But the 2020-2021 budget plan legislative leaders announced Wednesday rejected those cuts. Instead of cutting money for public schools, lawmakers agreed to delay $9 billion in payments to districts. That would give school districts permission to go ahead and spend the money and have the state pay them back in a future budget year. The state has done this before during previous recessions, but never this much at one time.

Newsom’s plan also would have saved money by eliminating some health benefits for low-income adults and children and making fewer older adults eligible for government-funded health insurance. The Legislature rejected those cuts because they think Newsom overestimated by about $4 billion how much it will cost to pay for the state’s health insurance programs.

Still, much of the budget proposal is just a guess. In a normal year, most Californians would have filed their state tax returns by now, giving lawmakers a good idea of how much money they have to spend. But because of the coronavirus, the state delayed the tax filing deadline until July 15.

That’s why Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon said “all the budget plans being discussed acknowledge the possibility that more difficult cuts will be necessary.”

Lawmakers must approve an operating budget by June 15. If they don’t, the state constitution says they don’t get paid.

But whatever the Legislature passes, the governor has the authority to either sign it into law or veto all or parts of it. Legislative leaders will negotiate with Newsom over the next few days, which could lead to changes.

Newsom’s budget is prepared by the California Department of Finance. Wednesday, spokesman H.D. Palmer called the legislative plan “progress” and said both sides will continue their discussions to reach an agreement that balances the budget while “advancing our efforts for federal support to maintain core services.”

Comments from legislative leaders suggest they won’t bend on the cuts to education and other programs.

“Our economy has been pummeled by COVID-19, but thanks to a decade of pragmatic budgeting, we can avoid draconian cuts to education and critical programs, or broad middle-class tax increases,” said Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins, of San Diego.

The legislative plan announced Wednesday also would:

  • Reject Newsom’s proposal to slash $119 million from a program that helps keep 45,000 people out of nursing homes.
  • Offer government-funded health insurance to low-income adults 65 and older who are living in the country illegally, but not until 2022.
  • Expand the state’s earned income tax credit to immigrants with at least one child age 6 or younger.
  • Close two state prisons “with legislative guidance.”
  • Give $350 million to local government to pay for homeless services.

Notice a couple of things:

  • Pensions, by far the biggest cost for a profligate state like California, are not just uncut, but unmentioned. Right there you know that this is not a serious effort.
  • Instead of accepting some of the governor’s proposed spending cuts, the legislature increased spending on a bunch of things and “paid” for it like this: “Instead of cutting money for public schools, lawmakers agreed to delay $9 billion in payments to districts. That would give school districts permission to go ahead and spend the money and have the state pay them back in a future budget year.”

It’s clear that the needed cuts are political poison and will therefore never happen. Which makes these negotiations a charade designed to frame the state’s coming request demand for an epic federal bailout.

The country is thus left with two alternatives:

1) Have states like California cut services to the point where very little education, healthcare or public safety is actually provided, leaving such places looking a lot like today’s Venezuela. Or…

2) Have the federal government create several trillion more dollars out of thin air and hand them more-or-less directly to public sector pensioners with no real benefit for public services – which, given the likely impact on national finances and, yes, the value of the dollar – might leave the entire US looking like today’s Venezuela.

Either way, the descent from the illusion of prosperity to the reality of bankruptcy continues.

Click here for the other articles in this series.

end

An inside look at Antifa and how it operates

(zerohedge)

“A Safe Space To Practice Aggression”: Veritas Infiltrates Antifa ‘Fight Club’ In NYC

One day after infiltrating the violent Rose City Antifa cell in Portland, Oregon, Project Veritas has done it again – this time in New York City, where an undercover journalist recorded the young radicals receiving martial arts instruction on fighting techniques for riots.

Operating out of “The Base Anarchist Political Center,” Antifa fight instructor Chris describes how best to injure an opponent, giving them time to ‘run away’ or ‘really put a beating on them if you want to make it personal.’

If you get a good liver or kidney shot, it’s pretty much crippling them. They’re going to be doubled over and in a lot of pain. If you break one of the floating ribs, which are small and right down here. Those are also very painful, it’s hard to move after that, to catch a breath. So, one good body shot could potentially give you all the time in the world to run away while they’re doubled over in pain, or really put a beating on them after that if you really want to make it personal. -Chris, Antifa fight instructor

Chris describes the group as “a safe space to practice aggression,” adding that it’s “not aggression against one another, but really just a space that, if you really want to or if you really want to challenge yourself, to kind of work on harnessing that kind of energy.”

The Veritas undercover journalist is then taught a variety of techniques to deal with opponents who have shields, defending against a choke hold, grabbing your opponent by the nuts, and “some really useful Jiu Jitsu.”

You step and yo grab his fucking nuts. Or you just solidly elbow, and he will let go,” says the instructor.

 END
The Fed so far are not monetizing all of the Treasury issuance.  Thus good reason for the 10 year yield to blow out to .92%
(zerohedge)

Fed Again Tapers Daily Treasury Purchases To $4 Billion Per Day For Next Week

From an initial $75 billion per day when the Fed announced the launch of Unlimited QE in mid-March, the US central bank first reduced its daily buying to $60 billion per day, then announced a series of consecutive ‘tapers’ as follows:

  • $50 billion per day for April 6-9
  • $30 billion per day for April 13-17
  • $15 billion per day for April 20-24
  • $10 billion per day for April 27-May 1
  • $8 billion per day for May 4-May 8
  • $7 billion per day for May 11-May 15
  • $6 billion per day for May 18-May 22
  • $5 billion per day for May 25-May 29

Then, after again shrinking the average daily POMO to $4.5 billion for the week of June 1-June 5,  in its latest just published schedule, the Fed unveiled that in the coming week it would purchase “only” $4BN per day, or a total of $20BN for the week, the lowest weekly total since the launch of Unlimited QE on March 23.

At the same time as it continues to shrink its TSY purchases, for the third week in a row the Fed decided not to taper its daily MBS buying, which will average $4.5 billion per day next week, the same as last week, and now above the buying of Treasuries for the coming week. Also, the coming week’s MBS POMO schedule is identical to last week’s:

  • Mon: $4.47BN vs $4.47BN
  • Tue: $4.545BN vs $4.545BN
  • Wed: $4.47BN vs $4.47BN
  • Thur: $4.545BN vs $4.545BN
  • Fri: $4.47BN vs $4.47BN

The chart below summarizes all the Fed Treasury and MBS buying completed and scheduled since the relaunch of QE on March 13:

In aggregate, the Fed will buy a total of $42.5 billion of TSYs/MBS next week and ever closer to spark concerns that the Fed is no longer monetizing all the Treasury issuance, of which there is and will be trillions in the coming quarters.

And while yields did not react to the latest POMO schedule, after weeks of trading in the mid-0.60% range, today we have finally seen some movement in the 10Y which was last trading around 0.92%, with bond buyers set to become much more curious if and when the Fed will either launch more QE or announce Yield Curve Control at next week’s FOMC meeting.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Rasmussen: Black Approval For Trump Surges To Over 40%

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Despite the recent riots over police brutality, Rasmussen has indicated that black approval for the job President Trump is doing is now over 40%.

“Our Daily Presidential Tracking poll today shows Black Likely Voter approval of the job @realDonaldTrump is now over 40%,” tweeted the polling agency.

The full results of the poll are yet to be published, but the number suggests that the media’s campaign to frame Trump’s response to the riots as draconian and racist has completely failed.

Rasmussen Reports

@Rasmussen_Poll

Reader Tip: Coming Later

Our Daily Presidential Tracking poll today shows Black Likely Voter approval of the job @realDonaldTrump is now over 40%.

For comparison, back in August 2019, Rasmussen’s numbers showed black support for Trump hovering at around 26%.

Several polls conducted in December 2019 also showed black support for Trump over 30%.

With the economy starting to bounce back and May seeing a record 2.5 million jobs added, the numbers will be encouraging for Trump, who as recently as last month saw his overall job approval job sink to a two-year low.

*  *  *

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v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

US Initial Jobless Claims: 1.877m, 1.833m expected; Continuing Claims: 21.487m, 20.0m expected, previous week revised to 20.838m from 21.052m

The ECB then came to the rescue.

ECB Goes All Out with 600 Billion Euro Increase in Bond Buying

At a virtual meeting on Thursday, President Christine Lagarde and colleagues decided to expand the amount of purchases by 600 billion euros ($675 billion) to 1.35 trillion euros, and extended their duration until at least the end of June 2021. The vast majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last week expected a boost of 500 billion euros…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-04/ecb-extends-pandemic-purchase-program-to-at-least-june-2021

Antifa planned anti-government insurgency for months, law enforcement official says

“Their Marxist ideology seeks not only to influence elections in the short term but to destroy the use of elections as the determining factor in political legitimacy.”…They are fomenting this violence to create havoc, despair and to target the Trump campaign for defeat in 2020.”

    More generally, senior Trump administration officials and private analysts are warning that the radicals have rushed to exploit recent anti-police protests to set into motion a program of widespread civil unrest, a program that involves using the protests for looting and burning inner cities with the help of criminals and street gangs… The ideology of Antifa is at its center Marxism-Leninism, he said.

     The death of Mr. Floyd in Minneapolis was a pretext for launching the Antifa insurgency, he said. “In a matter of hours after the video of Floyd began circulating the internet, militant Antifa cells across the country mobilized to Minnesota to aid Black Lives Matter rioters,” he said…

    “One reason is that so many Democrat leaders have children and family members who are active participants in the Marxist movement, with many of them being members of Antifa, insofar as one can be a member,” said Mr. Higgins, the former NSC official…

https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jun/3/antifa-planned-anti-government-insurgency-george-f/

Europe’s Antifa History Should Serve as a Warning to America

Riots are also a well-used tactic for Antifa in Europe. This year, extremists have made attempts to hijack and inflame riots in migrant-background areas that are sparked by accusations of police brutality.

Unlike in the United States, where Antifa has been widely seen as being successful with inflaming the ongoing riots, French no-go area locals rejected the help of Antifa, claiming the locals would be blamed and arrested for Antifa’s extreme violence…

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/06/04/tomlinson-europe-antifa-history-should-serve-warning-america/

3 protesters tracked [Atlanta] officers to their homes, threw Molotov cocktails at police cars…

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/3-protesters-track-officers-their-home-light-their-police-cars-fire-authorities-say/Y4BL2CZGHVCIZFP62CMDCVQJIU/

With the worst rioting in the US since 1968, big-blue city officials want to drastically cut police funding!

‘Seize this moment’: NYC Comptroller Urges de Blasio to Cut Over $1B In NYPD Funding

https://saraacarter.com/seize-this-moment-nyc-comptroller-urges-de-blasio-to-cut-over-1b-in-nypd-funding/

Two Black Activists Sniff at Proposed Reductions [up to $150 million] in LAPD Budget

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/two-black-activists-sniff-at-proposed-reductions-in-lapd-budget/2374830/

Ex-Hillary Clinton spokesman slammed after endorsing ‘defund the police’ push

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hillary-clinton-spokesman-defund-the-police-push

@johncardillo: NYPD source tells me on average six cops a day are resigning, and that number is expected to rise. That’s in addition to normal attrition for retirement, disability, etc… This is disastrous for morale and manpower. [This trend will appear in other big cities.]

Chicago: More Marches, Demand for Police ‘De-Funding’

https://wbbm780.radio.com/articles/chicago-more-marches-demand-for-police-de-funding

Defunding police due to budget and leftist pressure is ‘Fall of Rome’ stuff.

Jeremiah Ellison, Minnesota AG Keith Ellison’s son: ‘We are going to dismantle the Minneapolis Police Department’ https://www.foxnews.com/politics/jeremiah-ellison-minnesota-ag-keith-ellisons-son-dismantle-minneapolis-police-department

@alexsalvinews: The president of the Minneapolis City Council says the city’s Police Dept. will be dismantled and replaced with a “transformative new model of public safety.”

The mobs have captured big-blue cities.  Will this spread to other cities and towns in the USA?

Ex-NSC official @RichHiggins_DC: Police are the first target of marxist insurgents b/c they are the front line of constitutional governance. Once police are sufficiently demoralized, the insurgent rioters will turn their violence on the population. Watch for night letters, graffiti, and show of force displays.

Toymaker Lego Asks Retailers to Pull Promos for Police, Firefighters, White House Figures

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/06/04/toymaker-lego-asks-retailers-to-pull-police-firefighters-white-house-figures-from-shelves/

AG Barr deploys Bureau of Prisons tactical units to Miami, Washington

The units include disturbance control teams, which are trained to deal with crowd control…

https://nypost.com/2020/06/03/ag-barr-deploys-bureau-of-prisons-tactical-units-to-miami-washington/

CNN reports more fencing was erected around the White House yesterday.  A hot weekend is expected.    Video at: https://twitter.com/betsy_klein/status/1268491075343319041

CNN’s @betsy_klein: In addition to the new fencing, which now extends past the EEOB down 17th Street, @abdallahCNN reports that additional concrete barriers have been installed behind existing fencing at 17th and Pennsylvania Ave. NW

Chicago Area Police Close Exit Ramps to Protect Wealthier Northern Suburbs from Looting

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/06/03/chicago-area-police-close-exit-ramps-to-protect-wealthier-northern-suburbs-from-looting/

Attorney General Barr on George Floyd video: ‘Harrowing to watch and deeply disturbing’

Attorney General William Barr said the Justice Department is “proceeding quickly” with its investigation on the death of George Floyd…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/29/george-floyd-video-harrowing-watch-deeply-disturbing-barr/5284889002/

AG Bill Barr also said: Friday is a day of mourning (Floyd was buried in his home state of Texas); the DOJ is working with state and local partners to restore order in DC, as well as the rest of the nation; we have evidence that Antifa and it is “a witch’s brew of a lot of extremist organizations” that have instigated violent activity; there are foreign actors playing all sides in the protests; 51 people have been arrested for federal crimes from the riots.  “When the rule of law breaks down, so does our country also.”

@MZHemingway: Journalist asks Barr why he took action against DC rioters — he says rioters had damaged buildings in Lafayette Park, used crowbars to dig up sidewalks for bricks, many injuries to LEO at WH, including 22 hospitalizations, involving serious head injuries… Evidence that some foreign interference is focusing in on Flynn protests.

In Thursday’s missive we opined that the radical groups involved in fomenting the rioting will continue to orchestrate and abet rioting through the summer and fall.  Barr’s comments confirm this with the added twist that groups have already planned protests on Gen. Flynn’s probable exoneration.  What do ‘they’ have planned if Top Obama Administration officials get indicted for crimes?  Are the people that might be in legal jeopardy involved?

Because politicians are restraining big-city and big-blue state law enforcement, vigilantism is escalating.  Fear is mushrooming.  This is an extremely dangerous mix!!!  If officials don’t intervene soon, significant blood shed could commence.  The US is at its most critical point in history since Reconstruction!

“Conflict Will Continue to Intensify” – Dalio Warns “We Are Beginning to See Democracy Slip into Anarchy”  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/conflict-will-continue-intensify-billionaire-dalio-warns-we-are-beginning-see

Sen. Josh Hawley @HawleyMO: So when do we get to have a conversation about the economic policies of the last 30+ years that shipped jobs in the urban core AND in rural America overseas and left working class folks in all places with fewer and fewer life prospects?

Fox contributor Lara Logan last night said Antifa is distributing the flight paths of Homeland security staff. They are tracking police officers coming and going from their homes to their stations.

What are the odds that impeachment, then Covid shutdowns and then nation-wide riots would appear back-to-back-to back in just five months?   Asking for a friend

The Fed balance sheet ballooned $67,901B to $7.165T for the week ended on Wednesday.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

Today – Obviously, early US trading will be dictated by the May Employment Report.  It will be released one hour before the NYSE opens.  If it is worse than expected, the usual suspects will try to orchestrate an ESM rally into the NYSE open.  Even with the ECB boost on Thursday, stocks struggled.  This suggests that stocks are exhausted.

Saner angels know that stocks are due for a meaningful correction.  With stocks historically overbought and the possibility of more rioting over the weekend (‘Tis why Barr has deployed assets.), instead of the usual Friday afternoon rally, there could be liquidation ‘down to sleeping levels’ ahead of the weekend.

Last night on Fox, Ex-NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly said NY police are exhausted after working 12-hour shifts with no days off.  This is a very dangerous situation!

Ann Coulter on Why She Turned Against Trump

‘He hired no one who supported the MAGA agenda, and brought in half of Goldman Sachs.’

     His boorishness, narcissism and egomaniacal childish behavior went in all the worst directions he could possibly go in, starting with not keeping any of his promises… We hoped he would do with his promises on immigration, on building the wall, on deporting illegals, on signing the anchor baby executive order, on ending the guest workers or indentured servitude provisions. But no, he hired none of his early supporters, he hired no one who supported the MAGA agenda, and brought in half of Goldman Sachs. The Donald Trump administration had more Goldman Sachs employees than the Bush and Obama administrations combined…

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/state-of-the-union/podcast-ann-coulter-on-why-she-turned-against-trump/

@realDonaldTrump: The Radical Left Democrats new theme is “Defund the Police”. Remember that when you don’t want Crime, especially against you and your family. This is where Sleepy Joe is being dragged by the socialists. I am the complete opposite, more money for Law Enforcement!

@paulsperry_: Full George Floyd autopsy reveals his blood concentration of the powerful street opioid fentanyl was 4 times the level known to cause “fatalities.” Floyd also had speed & marijuana in system. First arresting officer on scene saw “foam” around mouth, asked if “on anything”

@phillygodfather: The amount of drugs in George Floyd’s body was enough to kill two elephants.  If these cops beat this case, chaos is going to pop.  I haven’t been to church in years. I’m headed over to pray… The problem is the Verdict must be beyond a reasonable doubt. The bullshit Corona Crap combined with all the drugs in his system create a ton of doubt.  A great lawyer can spank this case. All you need is one juror… I’m praying the Cops plea out.

New Floyd Murder Charges Will Be Tough to Prove and May Imperil Good Cops

In a politically charged case, it is more important, not less, to get the charges right.

Felony Murder: Criminalizing Police Restraint of Suspects

   The second-degree murder charge is now the main charge against all four officers. Essentially, the theory is that they committed a felony assault when they subdued a suspect who was resisting arrest. During the course of carrying out that “crime,” prosecutors allege, Floyd’s death resulted…

    Any experienced law-enforcement officer will tell you that it is common for suspects to resist arrest by lying on the ground, claiming to be ill, waving arms to avoid being cuffed, and refusing to be placed in a squad car.  Cops, of course, may not use excessive force when that happens. They must, however, be permitted to use sufficiently superior force to detain and transport uncooperative arrestees. In Minnesota, thanks to its election of the new breed of progressive prosecutor who rails against the justice system’s purported institutional racism, police officers who use force in arresting dangerous criminals now run the risk that they will be the ones who face criminal chargesby ex-federal prosecutor Andy McCarthy

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/06/new-floyd-murder-charges-will-be-tough-to-prove-and-may-imperil-good-cops/

Some pundits allege that Minnesota AG Keith Ellison wants more riots because of his ideologies.

Keith Ellison Loses DNC Race after Heated Campaign Targeting Him for His Views on Palestine

The first Muslim elected to Congress — earned initial support from many Democrats until a strong backlash from the Obama and Clinton camps and prominent pro-Israeli activists… Haim Saban, the entertainment tycoon who is one of the Democratic Party’s largest donors, called Ellison both “anti-Israel” and anti-Semitic…

https://theintercept.com/2017/02/25/keith-ellison-loses-dnc-race-after-heated-campaign-targeting-him-for-his-views-on-palestine/

Trevor Loudon to Speak about Keith Ellison’s Radical Record in Rochester, Minnesota on Tuesday

Loudon… is passionate about America and is, by his own admission, driven by a desire tosave western civilization from what he sees as its two great threats: radical Marxism and Islamic supremacism

   Ellison is  perhaps best known for being the first Muslim member of Congress and less known for his roots in the radical left/progressive movement now insinuating itself deeply into the Democrat Party…

https://theminnesotasun.com/2018/10/22/trevor-loudon-to-speak-about-keith-ellisons-radical-record-in-rochester-minnesota-on-tuesday/

Ex-NSC official @RichHiggins_DC: Since Mattis has broken his silence, I will break mine.  Mattis accessed the Administration thru an individual who was FIRED from the transition team.  The reason for firing? He was meeting with Chinese & Vietnamese communists in Beijing.  The individual who brought Mattis in worked natsec transition and was brought to Trump team by John McCain’s Senate staff.  While in Beijing he was accompanied by the leader of the International Union of Muslim Scholars….aka; Muslim brotherhood.  This individual admitted under questioning to being “placed in transition to subvert the trump agenda.”  This individual coordinated resume reviews with Samar Ali….daughter of Subhi Ali…the head of the Jerusalem Fund…which funds BDS, Hamas, and other jihadi groups…

     Why are so many former GO’s available to attack POTUS? In WW II, 8.2 million citizens served fought & won the largest, most destructive war in human history under command of only 4 Four-Stars.

Today, our military is 1/8 the size, but commanded by 38 Four-Stars.

While the MSM, Dems and RINOs are slamming Trump for mentioning the use of the US Military to quell riots (and ‘gassing’ protestors), we are old enough to remember when Bill Clinton involved the US Military at the Waco siege.  Women and children were gassed and died.  The media excused Clinton.

Military a reluctant participant in Branch Davidian siege

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/report-military-a-reluctant-participant-in-branch-davidian-siege

Military Involvement in the Government Operations at Waco

Activities of Federal Law Enforcement Agencies toward the Branch Davidians

Report House of Representatives 104th Congress, 2nd Session, Union Calendar No. 395  August 2, 1996

   The military assistance provided to ATF can be separated into four areas: (1) surveillance overflights by counterdrug National Guard units in January and February 1993; (2) training by Special Forces soldiers  assigned to JTF-6 for counterdrug missions in late February 1993; (3) direct support by Texas National Guard counterdrug personnel who conducted an aerial diversion the day of the raid on February 28, 1993;  and (4) post-raid support to FBI and ATF…

https://culteducation.com/group/1220-waco-davidians/24432-military-involvement-in-the-government-operations-at-waco.html

How Nixon Used the ‘68 Riots to Flip Illinois – After unrest on the West Side following MLK’s assassination — and later at the DNC — Illinois went to the Republicans, who won the state in six consecutive elections.http://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/May-2020/Chicago-Riots-1968-DNC-Nixon-Trump/

Biden’s response to protests reportedly costs him support of police groups   https://trib.al/XgX9BnV

Well that is all for today

We will close with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

Protests False Narrative, Another Fake HCQ Study, Economic Update

By Greg Hunter On June 5, 2020

According to outspoken conservative Candace Owens, the current violent nationwide protests based on “racially motivated police brutality is a myth.”  Owens contends the death of George Floyd at the hands of the police has created a “martyr for a fake narrative.”  Owens started the so-called “Blexit” movement to shift black voters away from the Democrat party.  (Click here to watch Candace Owens’ riveting rant on the “fake narrative” she says the current protests and riots are based on.)

Yet another fake study has been exposed.  This time the prestigious Lancet Medical Journal admitted it used “bogus data” to trash hydroxychloroquine (HCQ).  The Lancet retracted its entire report that the MSM was using to discredit President Trump for taking HCQ and proposing people to use it to treat Covid 19.  Shame on them for discrediting a lifesaving drug in the Covid pandemic.

Think the surging stock market is a sign that everything is getting back to normal?  You would be dead wrong.  Many say money printing by global central banks is artificially driving the markets higher in the face of terrible economic news.  The markets and reality are totally disconnected.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END=

I will see you MONDAY night.

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