JUNE 29//GOLD UP $2.90 TO $1767.00//SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TO $17.81//OPTIONS EXPIRY FOR OTC/LBMA TOMORROW//FIRST DAY NOTICE TOMORROW/GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX; 171.4 TONNES/HUGE FAKE GOLD SCANDAL IN CHINA AS 83 TONNES OF COPPER GILDED GOLD UNCOVERED//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES FROM SATURDAY-MONDAY// LOCUSTS SWARM SARDINIA//HEADING TO ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL//.HAMAS , HEZBOLLAH AND IRAN READY FOR WAR AGAINST ISRAEL//CHESAPEAKE AND CIRQUE DU SOLEIL FILE FOR BANKRUPTCY PROTECTION

GOLD::$1767.00  UP $2.90   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

Silver:$17.81//DOWN 1 CENT  London spot price

 

LBMA/OTC OPTIONS EXPIRE JUNE 30//

 

 

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1772.95  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $17.86//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

AUG GOLD:  $1798.00  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $28.00

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER JULY COMEX CLOSE;   $17.98…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JULY//  :  17 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $29.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  136/208

issued 128

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,772.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/26/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 06/30/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
152 C DORMAN TRADING 5
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
661 C JP MORGAN 128 131
661 H JP MORGAN 5
686 C INTL FCSTONE 29
690 C ABN AMRO 30 10
737 C ADVANTAGE 14
800 C MAREX SPEC 50
905 C ADM 5
991 H CME 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 208 208
MONTH TO DATE: 55,101

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JUNE CONTRACT: 208 NOTICE(S) FOR 20800 OZ (0.6469 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  55,101 NOTICES FOR 5,510,100 OZ  (171.38 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JUNE

 

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 441 for 2,205,000 oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9080  DOWN 31  

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9147 UP $29

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $2.90 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

A MONSTROUS (CRIMINAL) CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT  3.61 TONNES OF GOLD

 

GLD: 1,178.90 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

A SMALL PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 0.466 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV///

AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE,

AND A HUGE 1.212 MILLION OZ OF A DEPOSIT INTO THE SLV//

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 492.604  MILLION OZ./

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1911 CONTRACTS FROM 177,948 DOWN  TO 176,037, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN  OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GOOD 6 CENT GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION ALONG WITH  HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A GOOD EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JUNE.  WE HAD A NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 772 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUMONGOUS AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   JULY: 335  AND SEP 427 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  782 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1051 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1782 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.910 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 6 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF INITIALLY STANDING FOR JUNE

 

FRIDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 6 CENTS).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE NO DOUBT  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE STRONG LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A STRONG SPREADER LIQUIDATION, ii) A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING,  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET LOSS OF 1129 CONTRACTS OR 5.645 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

SPREADING OPERATIONS

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JULY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JUNE

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JUNE:

13,545 CONTRACTS (FOR 22 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 13,545 CONTRACTS) OR 67.88 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 615 CONTRACTS OR 3.078 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY: 67.88 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.69% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,133.94 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP SO FAR                   67.88 MILLION OZ.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 60 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED  AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1911, DESPITE OUR 6 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///FRIDAYTHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 782 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A  STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1129 CONTRACTS (DESPITE OUR 6 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)//WITH THE DOMINANT FACTOR OF OI LOSS BEING SPREADER LIQUIDATION

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 772 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED DECREASE OF 1911 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 6 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.82 // FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.8890 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 127% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JUNE  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 6483 CONTRACTS TO 545,770 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE CONSIDERABLE SIZED GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR ADVANCE IN PRICE  OF $5.50 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// FRIDAY// WE  HAD STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING, ANOTHER STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.50 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  25

 

WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 9619 CONTRACTS  (28.77 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 3163 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  JUNE 0.; AUG 3163 AND DEC: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3163.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 545,770. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9619 CONTRACTS: 6483 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3163 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 9619 CONTRACTS OR 28.77 TONNES. FRIDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $5.50 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 28.77 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $5.50).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS  UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (3163) ACCOMPANYING THE CONSIDERABLE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (6483 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  9619 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD  OUNCES STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JUNE MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) CONSIDERABLE COMEX OI GAIN.. AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//FRIDAY//$5.50.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 60,833 CONTRACTS OR 6,083,300 oz OR 189.21 TONNES (22 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2765 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 22 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 179.37 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 189.21/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.32% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3024.74  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     189.21 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1911 CONTRACTS FROM 177,948 DOWN TO 176,037 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1) STRONG SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND AS WELL WE HAD 2) BANKER SHORT COVERING , 3) A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 4) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JUNE AND  5) MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 782 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 335 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 427 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 782 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 1911  CONTRACTS TO THE 782 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  LOSS OF 1129 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.645 MILLION  OZ OCCURRED WITH THE 6 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 6 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 772 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 18.03 POINTS OR 0.61%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 248.71 POINTS OR 1.01%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 517.04 POINTS OR 2.30%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.60%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0756 /Oil UP TO 38.75 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0756 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0720 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 6483 CONTRACTS TO 544,770 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS CONSIDERABLE  COMEX ADVANCE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $5.50 IN GOLD PRICING /FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (3163 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER GIGANTIC INCREASE IN  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX//JUNE DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) , …  AS WE ENGINEERED A STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 9619 CONTRACTS DESPITE GOLD’S GOOD GAIN IN PRICE.

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 25

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3163 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  0 FOR JUNE  3163 FOR AUG AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3163 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  9619 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3163 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 6483 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A SMALL  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL COMEX OI LOSS,  A HUGE INCREASE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JUNE DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION……AND WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE WE HAD A GAIN IN COMEX PRICE OF JUST 5.50 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $5.50).  AND, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A GOOD 28.77 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 9619 CONTRACTS OR 961,900 OZ OR 28.77 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  545,770 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 54.57 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1697 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1697/2200 OR 77.15% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 130,659 contracts//poor//most traders have moved to London

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  212,403 contracts//  volume poor //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

JUNE 29 /2020

JUNE GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

32,653.440

OZ

BRINKS

HSBC

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
208 notice(s)
 20800 OZ
(0.6467 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
(100 oz)
0.00311 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
55101 notices
5,510,100 OZ
171,387 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into HSBC:  31,701.15 oz

 

ii) Into BRINKS:   952.29 oz

 

total deposit:  32,653.440 oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  nil oz

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 2 //    

 

i) Dealer to customer:

JPMorgan:  82,874.841 oz was removed from the dealer JPMorgan and this landed into the customer account of JPMorgan

ii) customer to dealer

Scotia:  3,419.370 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer Scotia

 

 

The front month of JUNE registered a total of 209 oi contracts FOR a LOSS of 1213 contracts.  We had 1417 notices filed on FRIDAY so we GAINED A STRONG 204 contracts or an additional  20400 oz of gold (0.6346 TONNES) will  stand in this very active delivery month of June as these guys REFUSED TO morph into London based forwards

 

After June we have the non active delivery month of July and here we had a LOSS of 18 contracts DOWN to 4360 contracts. Thus we are going to have another humdinger of a delivery month for the non active month of July of around 4400 contracts or 440,000 or  (13.7 tonnes)

Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI ROSE by A STRONG 5245  contracts UP to 381,583 contracts.

 

We had 209 notices filed today for 141700 oz

 

FOR THE JUNE 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 128 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 208 contract(s) of which 5 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 136 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (55.101) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JUNE (209 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (208 x 100 oz per contract) equals 5,510,200 OZ OR 171.390 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE/2020 contract month:

No of notices served (55,101)x 100 oz + (209 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (208) x 100 oz which equals 5,510,200 oz standing OR 171.39 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JUNE delivery month or any active/non active delivery month.

We GAINED  204 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 20400 oz will stand on this side of the pond.  Issuance of exchange for physicals is SMALL today…  It is still too costly for our crooked bankers to carry.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

312,441.780 oz PLEDGED  JUNE 24// 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.036 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

19,290.600 oz Pledged May 8/2020   INT DELAWARE:  .600 TONNES

 

477,821.587 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/               14.865 tonnes

total pledged gold:  996,191.227.127 oz                             31.017 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 362.86 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 171.39 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  12,662,419.810 oz or 393.85 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  312,441.780 oz (or 9.718 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    19,290.600 oz  which cannot be settled:   (.600 tonnes)
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  21,026.754 oz which cannot be settled June 5 (.65402 tonnes)
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 456,794,87 oz added which cannot be settled:  14.208 tonnes
total brinks:  477,821.587 oz
total weight of pledged:  996,191.227 oz or 31.017 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 11,666,118.0  (362.86 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  11,666,118.0 (362.86 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  19,084,353.953 oz (593.60 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   31,746,773.763 oz 987.45 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  861.11 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JUNE 29/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1911 CONTRACTS FROM 177,948 DOWN TO 176,037 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,384 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS DUE TO;   1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JUNE ,  4) MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION 5) STRONG SPREADER LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 782 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 335 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 427 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 782 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 1911  CONTRACTS TO THE 782 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A FAIR LOSS OF 1129 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.645 MILLION  OZ OCCURRED WITH THE 6 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///HOWEVER THE DOMINANT LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 6 CENT GAIN IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 782 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

JUNE 29/2020

JUNE SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 301,895.740 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,134,863.019 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(60,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 120,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  441 contracts

2,205,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii) Into Delaware:  15,412.210 oz

 

iv) Into Scotia:  591,140.900  oz

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.29% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/319.958 million

 

total customer deposits today: 606,553.110    oz

we had 1 withdrawals:

i) Out of CNT: 601,002.200  oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 601,002.200   oz

We had 0 adjustments

 

 

total dealer silver: 88.859 million

total dealer + customer silver:  319.958 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The front month of June has an open interest of 0 for a loss  of 8 contracts.  We had  8 contracts served upon on FRIDAY so we gained 0 oz of silver standing.

The next month of July sees its open interest fall by 8346 down to 22,560. August sees its open interest GAIN by 73 contracts UP to 644

The big September contract month sees a gain of 6185 contracts up to 132,280.

Most of the loss in the front month of July was due to spreader liquidation.

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE 2020. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 441 x 5,000 oz = 2,205,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE.(0) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE/2019 contract month: 441 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (0)- number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month.equals 2,205,000 oz.

We GAINED 0 contracts or an additional nil oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morphed into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 57,940 CONTRACTS // volume  good/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 82,904..,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume very good/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 82,904 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 414 million  OZ  59.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO+ 0.10% ((JUNE 29/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.46% to NAV:   (JUNE 29/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/ 0.10%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.80 TRADING 16.78///POSITIVE 0.10

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $5.03 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.46 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.39 TONNES

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.50 TONNES

JUNE 9//WITH GOLD UP $16.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1125.48 TONNES

JUNE 8//WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.11 TONNES

 

JUNE 5//WITH GOLD DOWN $40.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.21 TONNES

JUNE 4//WITH GOLD UP $20.60: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1133.37 TONNES

JUNE 3//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 0.78 TONNES OF GLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.28 TONNES

JUNE 2//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.40 TONNES

JUNE 1//WITH GOLD UP $1.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES OF GOLD//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1123.14 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///GLD INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 28//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $.10 TODAY: A STRONG 2.34 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1119.05 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

JUNE 29/ GLD INVENTORY 1178.90 tonnes*

LAST;  849 TRADING DAYS:   +235.00 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 749 TRADING DAYS://+413.18  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE//// AND A LARGE DEPOSIT OF 1.212 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.605 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE WITHDRAWALS OF 932,000 MILLION OZ AND 1.491 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.240 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 648,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.663  MILLION OZ

JUNE 4//WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

 

JUNE 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 2//WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS 6.686 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 1//WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 466.629 MILLION OZ//

MAY 29//WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.796 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 463.273 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.660 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.477 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

 

JUNE 29.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

492.604 MILLION OZ.

END

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES//  GOLD LEASE RATES

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 3.30/ and libor 6 month duration 0.36

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

GOLD LENDING RATE: -2.91%

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASING RATES INCREASING BY A HUGE AMOUNT//GOLD SCARCITY AND CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN ALL OF THEIR GOLD LEASES

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 234%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.57

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.77%

 

end

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

iii) Other physical stories:

How on earth can anybody trust the Chinese:  a whopping 83 tonnes of fake gold bars made up not of tungsten rods but gilded copper.  Copper has a much lower specific gravity than gold and should have easily been discovered.. The good part of the story is none of these bars ever got of of China

(zerohedge)

 

83 Tons Of Fake Gold Bars: Gold Market Rocked By Massive China Counterfeiting Scandal

Over the years, we have periodically reported of the occasional gold bar discovered as counterfeit in Manhattan’s Diamond District which instead of containing the yellow precious metal would be filled with gold-plated tungsten or in some cases copper. The news would spark a brief wave of outrage, prompting physical gold holders to run ultrasound spot checks of their inventory, at which point interest would wane and why not: buyer, after all, beware in gold as in every other market, and if someone is spending thousands to buy fake gold, well that’s Darwinism in action.

Yet one market which seemed stubbornly immune to any counterfeiting was that of physical gold in China, which was odd considering that over the past decade China had emerged as the world’s biggest counterfeiter of various, mostly industrial metals used to secure bank loans, better known as “ghost collateral“, and which adding insult to injury, would frequently  be rehypothecated meaning often several banks would have claims to the same (fake) asset.

All that is about to change with the discovery of what may be one of the biggest gold counterfeiting scandal in recent history. And yes, not only does it involve China, but it emerges from a city that has become synonymous for all that is scandalous about China: Wuhan itself.

With that preamble in mind, we introduce readers to Wuhan Kingold Jewelry Inc., a company which as the name implies was founded and operates out of Wuhan, and which describes itself on its website as “A Company with a Golden future.”

In retrospect, it probably meant “copper” future, because as a remarkable expose by Caixin has found, more than a dozen Chinese financial institutions, mainly trust companies (i.e., shadow banks) loaned 20 billion yuan ($2.8 billion) over the past five years to Wuhan Kingold Jewelry with pure gold as collateral and insurance policies to cover any losses. There was just one problem: the “gold” turned out to be gold-plated copper.

Some more background: Kingold – whose name was probably stolen from Kinross Gold, one of the world’s largest gold miners – is the largest privately owned gold processor in central China’s Hubei province. Its shares are listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange in New York (although its current market cap of just $10MM is a far cry from its all time highs hit when the company IPOed on the Nasdaq around 2010) . The company is led by Chairman Jia Zhihong, an intimidating ex-military man who is the controlling shareholder.

What could go wrong?

Well, apparently everything as at least some of 83 tons of gold bars used as loan collateral turned out to be nothing but gilded copper. That has left lenders holding the bag for the remaining 16 billion yuan of loans outstanding against the bogus bars. And as Caixin adds, the loans were covered by 30 billion yuan of property insurance policies issued by state insurer PICC Property and Casualty and various other smaller insurers.

The fake gold came to light in February when Dongguan Trust (one of those infamous Chinese shadow banks) set out to liquidate Kingold collateral to cover defaulted debts. As the report continues, in late 2019 Kingold failed to repay investors in several trust products. To its shock, Dongguan Trust said it discovered that the gleaming gold bars were actually gilded copper alloy.

The news sent shockwaves through Kingold’s creditors. China Minsheng Trust – another shadow banking company and one of Kingold’s largest creditors – obtained a court order to test collateral before Kingold’s debts came due. On May 22, the test result returned saying the bars sealed in Minsheng Trust’s coffers are also copper alloy.

And with authorities investigating how this happened, Kingold chief Jia flatly denies that anything is wrong with the collateral his company put up. Well, what else could he say…

As Caxin notes, the Kingold counterfeiting case echoes China’s largest gold-loan fraud case, unfolding since 2016 in the northwest Shaanxi province and neighboring Hunan, where regulators found adulterated gold bars in 19 lenders’ coffers backing 19 billion yuan of loans, or about USD $2.5 billion. In that case, a lender seeking to melt gold collateral found black tungsten plate in the middle of the bars.

In the case of Kingold, the company said it took out loans against gold to supplement its cash holdings, support business operations and expand gold reserves, according to public records. It then appears to have decided to apply a gold-layer to tons of copper and pretend it was money-good gold collateral. And even more shocking, for years nobody checked the authenticity of the pledged collateral!

In 2018, the company beat a number of competitors in bidding to buy a controlling stake in state-owned auto parts maker Tri-Ring Group. Kingold offered 7 billion yuan in cash for 99.97% of Tri-Ring. The Hubei government cited the deal as a model of so-called mixed-ownership reform, which seeks to invite private shareholders into state-owned enterprises. But Kingold has faced problems taking over Tri-Ring’s assets amid a series of corruption probes and disputes involving Tri-Ring.

After obtaining the test results, Minsheng Trust executive said the company asked Jia whether the company fabricated the gold bars: “He flatly denied it and said it was because some of the gold the company acquired in early days had low purity,” the executive said. In a telephone interview with Caixin in early June, Jia denied that the gold pledged by his company was faked.

“How could it be fake if insurance companies agreed to cover it?” he said and refused to comment further. Well, the answer is simple: the insurance companies were in on the scam, but that’s a story for another day.

In early June, Minsheng Trust, Dongguan Trust and a smaller creditor Chang’An Trust filed lawsuits against Kingold and demanded that PICC P&C cover their losses. PICC P&C declined to comment to Caixin on the matter but said the case is in judicial procedure. A source from PICC P&C told Caixin that the claim procedure should be initiated by Kingold as the insured party rather than financial institutions as beneficiaries. Kingold hasn’t made a claim, the Caixin source said.

In total, Kingold pledge tens of thousands of kilograms of gold to no less than 14 creditors amounting to just under 20 billion yuan.

Caixin learned that the Hubei provincial government set up a special task force to oversee the matter and that the public security department launched an investigation. The Shanghai Gold Exchange, a gold industry self-regulatory organization, disqualified Kingold as a member as of last week.

Following Dongguan Trust and Minsheng Trust, two other Kingold creditors also tested pledged gold bars and found they were fake, Caixin learned. A Dongguan Trust employee said his company reported the case to police Feb. 27, the day after the testing result was delivered, and demanded 1.3 billion yuan of compensation from PICC P&C’s Hubei branch.

Meanwhile, Kingold defaulted on 1.8 billion yuan of loans from Dongguan Trust with an additional 1.6 billion yuan due in July.

The 83 tons of purportedly pure gold stored in creditors’ coffers by Kingold as of June, backing the 16 billion yuan of loans, would be equivalent to 22% of China’s annual gold production and 4.2% of the state gold reserve as of 2019.

In short, more than 4% of China’s official gold reserves may be fake. And this assume that no other Chinese gold producers and jewelry makers are engaging in similar fraud (spoiler alert: they are.)

* * *

Founded in 2002 by Jia, Kingold was previously a gold factory in Hubei affiliated with the People’s Bank of China that was split off from the central bank during a restructuring. With businesses ranging from gold jewelry design, manufacturing and trading, Kingold is one of China’s largest gold jewelry manufacturers, according to the company website.

The company debuted on Nasdaq in 2010. The stock currently trades around $1 apiece, giving Kingold a market value of $12 million, down 70% from a year ago. A company financial report showed that Kingold had $3.3 billion of total assets as of the end of September 2019, with liabilities of $2.4 billion.

Jia, now 59, served in the military in Wuhan and Guangzhou and spent six years living in Hong Kong. He once managed gold mines owned by the People’s Liberation Army, which means he likely has connections all the way to the very top.

 

Jia Zhihong

Jia is tall and strong,” one financial industry source familiar with Jia told Caixin. “He’s an imposing figure and speaks loudly. He is bold, reckless and eloquent, always making you feel he knows better than you.”

Several trust company sources said Jia is well connected in Hubei – the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic – which may explain Kingold’s surprise victory in the Tri-Ring deal. But a financial industry source in Hubei said Jia’s business is not as solid as it may appear.

“We knew for years that he doesn’t have much gold ― all he has is copper,” said the source, who declined to be named.

Local financial institutions in Hubei have avoided doing business with Kingold, but they don’t want to offend him publicly, the source said. Why? Because of his extnesive connections with the Chinese army.

“Almost none of Hubei’s local trust companies and banks has been involved in (Kingold’s) financing,” he said.

That explains why most of Kingold’s creditors are from outside Hubei. Caixin learned from regulatory sources that Minsheng Trust is the largest creditor of Kingold with nearly 4.1 billion yuan of outstanding loans, followed by Hengfeng Bank’s 3.9 billion yuan, Dongguan Trust’s 3.4 billion yuan, Anxin Trust & Investment Co.’s 1.9 billion yuan and Sichuan Trust Co.’s 1.8 billion yuan.

But wait, counterfeiting gold is just the tip of the company’s fraud iceberg: several industry sources told Caixin that the institutions were willing to offer loans to Kingold because Jia promised to help them dispose of bad loans.

Hengfeng Bank is the only commercial bank involved in the Kingold affair. The bank in 2017 provided an 8 billion yuan loan to Kingold, which in return agreed to help the bank write off 500 million yuan of bad loans, bank sources said. Kingold repaid half of the debts in 2018. But the loan issuance involved many irregularities as access to the pledged gold and testing procedures was controlled by Kingold, one Hengfeng employee said.

The loan was pushed forward by Song Hao, former head of Hengfeng’s Yantai branch. Song was placed under graft investigation in March 2018 in connection with the bank’s disgraced former Chairman Cai Guohua, whose downfall led to a major revamp in the bank’s management. In 2019, Hengfeng’s new management sued Kingold for the unpaid loans and moved to dispose the collateral. But a test of the gold bars found they are “all copper,” the bank source said.

It is still unclear whether the collateral was faked in the first place or replaced afterward. Sources from Minsheng Trust and Dongguan Trust confirmed that the collateral was examined by third-party testing institutions and strictly monitored by representatives from Kingold, lenders and insurers during the process of delivery.

“I still can’t understand which part went wrong,” a Minsheng Trust source said. Bank records showed that the vault where the collateral was stored was never opened, the source told Caixin.

The falling dominos

Public records showed that Kingold’s first gold-backed borrowing can be traced back to 2013, when it reached an agreement for 200 million yuan of loans from Chang’An Trust, with 1,000 kilograms of gold pledged. The two-year loan was to fund a property project in Wuhan and was repaid on time. Before this, Kingold’s financing mainly came from bank loans with property and equipment as collateral.

It appears that one way or another, the company realized that it could fabricate gold ownership and receive money in exchange for what were basically worthless copper bricks painted as gold; and thanks to Jia’s military connections nobody would ask any other questions.

As a result, starting in 2015, Kingold rapidly increased its reliance on gold-backed borrowing and started working with PICC P&C to cover the loans. In 2016, Kingold borrowed 11 billion yuan, nearly 16 times higher than the previous year’s figure. Its debt-to asset ratio surged to 87.5% from 43.4%, according to a company financial report. That year, Kingold pledged 54.7 tons of gold for loans, 7.5 times higher than the previous year.

It is now safe to assume that most of that gold never existed.

A person close to Jia said the surge of borrowing was partly due to Kingold’s pursuit of Tri-Ring. In 2016, the Hubei provincial government announced a plan to sell Tri-Ring stakes to private investors as a major revamp of the Hubei government-controlled auto parts manufacturer.

In 2018, Kingold was selected as the investor in a deal worth 7 billion yuan. According to the investment plan, Kingold’s purchase of Tri-Ring was part of a strategy to expand into the hydrogen fuel cell business, which is obviously a “logical” fit for a company involved in gold jewelry. Sources close to the deal said Kingold was attracted by Tri-Ring for its rich holding of industrial land that could be converted for commercial development.

Yes, at the very bottom of the fraud we finally get to the one true and endless Chinese asset bubble: real estate.

A Dongguan Trust investment document showed that Tri-Ring owns land blocks in Wuhan and Shenzhen that are worth nearly 40 billion yuan.

The deal drew immediate controversy as some rival bidders questioned the transparency of the bidding process and Kingold’s qualifications.

And here things get even crazier: according to Kingold’s financial reports, the company had only 100 million yuan of net assets in 2016 and 2 billion yuan in 2017, sparking doubts over its capacity to pay for the deal. Despite the fuss, Kingold paid 2.8 billion yuan for the first installment shortly after the announcement of the deal. The second installment of 2.4 billion yuan was paid several months later with funds raised from Dongguan Trust.

In December, Tri-Ring completed its business registration change, marking completion of Kingold’s takeover. However, the new owner has since faced troubles mobilizing Tri-Ring’s assets because of a series of corruption probes surrounding the auto parts maker since early 2019 that brought down Tri-Ring’s former chairman. As Caixin the notes, a majority of Tri-Ring’s assets were frozen amid the investigation and subsequent debt disputes, limiting Jia’s access to the assets.

The fraud is finally exposed

Hobbled by the Tri-Ring deal, which cost billions of yuan but has yet to make any return, Jia’s capital chain was eventually broken when Hengfeng Bank pushed for repayment, triggering a series of events that brought the fake gold to light, said a person close to the matter. Insurers’ involvement was key to the success of Kingold’s gold-backed loan deals. The insurance policies provided by leading state-owned insurers like PICC P&C were a major factor defusing lenders’ risk concerns, several trust company sources said.

“Without the insurance coverage from PICC P&C, (we) wouldn’t issue loans to Kingold as the collateral can only be tested through random picked samples,” one person told Caixin.

PICC P&C’s Hubei branch provided coverage for most of Kingold’s loans, Caixin learned. All the policies will expire by October. As of June 11, 60 policies were still valid or involved in lawsuits.

PICC P&C faces multiple lawsuits filed by Kingold’s creditors demanding compensation. But a PICC P&C spokesperson said the policies cover only collateral losses caused by accident, disasters, robbery and theft. Not fraud, and certainly not losses when the collateral never even existed!

Whose fault

Wang Guangming, a lawyer at Dacheng Law Offices, said the key issue is what happened to the pledged gold and which party was aware of the falsification. If Kingold faked the gold bars and both the insurers and creditors were unaware, the insurers should compensate the lenders and sue Kingold for insurance fraud, Wang said. Insurers are also responsible to compensate if they knew of Kingold’s scam but creditors didn’t, Wang said.

If Kingold and creditors were both aware of the fake collateral, insurers could terminate the policies and sue the parties for fraud. But if insurers were also involved in the scam, then all the contracts are invalid and every party should assume their own legal responsibilities, Wang said.

A financial regulatory official told Caixin that previous investigations of loan fraud cases involving fake gold pledges found there was often collusion between borrowers and financial institutions.

Earlier this year, PICC P&C removed its Hubei branch party head and general manager Liu Fangming. Sources said staff members involved in business with Kingold were also dismissed. PICC P&C said Liu’s removal was due to internal management issues. It didn’t answer Caixin’s question about whether Liu was involved in the Kingold scandal.

 

PICC P&C’s Hubei branch provided insurance for most of Kingold’s gold-backed loans.

* * *

The above story is shocking in exposing just how multi-faceted fraud is in China: capitalizing on pre-existing cronyism and connections with China’s powerful army, the founder of Kingold was allowed to basically do anything he wanted, no questions asked, including counterfeiting over 83 tons of gold bars to get billions in funds to participate in China’s housing bubble, only for a series of unexpected events to unwind the frauds one after another and expose the type of sordid scandal that is at the heart of most Chinese “enterprises” and business ventures.

As for the gold, yes – several billion in gold bars never existed and yet resulted in a cascade of subsequent cash flow events allowing tens of billions in funds to be released, “benefiting” not only founder Jia, but China’s broader economy. Which is, needless to say, terrifying: because whereas just after the financial crisis China was engaged in building ghost cities, everyone knew these were a symbol of demand that would never materialize, even if the cities themselves did exist. However, it now appears that a major part of China’s subsequent economic boom has been predicated on tens of billions in hard assets – such as gold – which simply do not exist.

As for what this means for the price of gold… well, Kingold is certainly not the only Chinese company engaging in such blatant fraud, and the consequences are clear: once Chinese creditors or insurance companies start testing the “collateral” they have received in exchange for tens of billions in loans and discover, to their “amazement”, that instead of gold they are proud owners of tungsten or copper, they have two choices: reveal the fraud, risking tremendous adverse consequences and/or prison time, or quietly buy up all the gold needed to literally fill the void from years of gold counterfeiting.

Something tells us option two will be far more palatable to China’s kleptoculture where one domino cold trigger a collapse of the entire financial system. What happens next: a panicked scramble to procure physical gold, one which even our friends at the BIS will be powerless to stop from sending the price of the precious metal to all time highs.

end

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0756/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.80720  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 18.03 POINTS OR 0.60%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 248.71 POINTS OR 1.01%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 517.04 POINTS OR 2.30%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 97.17/Euro RISE TO 1.1276

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.24/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 38.75 and Brent: 41.16

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.47%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.29% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP  TO 0.46%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.85: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.26

3k Gold at $1771.45 silver at: 17.87   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 18/100 in roubles/dollar) 69.96

3m oil into the 38 dollar handle for WTI and 41 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.24 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9459 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0668 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.47%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.64% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.38%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.85..

 

Futures Rebound From Early Losses Thanks To Old Faithful Overnight Ramp

Yesterday, shortly following the reopen for electronic trading at 6pm, we wrote that futures slumped “in a repeat of last Sunday’s gloomy open” however previewing that this slump “had fully reversed overnight with futures nice and green by morning” and sure enough the magical overnight ramp emerged once again, with Eminis reversing all early losses and trading near session highs at 3,016 at last check, with the dollar turning red and 10Y yield higher on the day even as the yield on 5Y Treasurys hovered near a record low.

 

One catalyst cited for the overnight strength is a report out of China that a coronavirus vaccine developed by a Chinese firm received approval for military use and a stronger-than-expected yuan fixing weighed on demand for haven assets.

Additionally, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott writes, “equities start lower and USTs start bull-flatter in Asia…before reversing Europe-into-US session, with global stock futs now marginally better, curves bear-steepening, Crude rallying and again Dollar fading lower, as markets continue to feel very constructive on the Eurozone Coronabond issuance project as Germany capitulates away from austerity and towards both debt mutualization and fiscal stimulus.”

Whatever the driver, after major Wall Street indexes had tumbled more than 2% on Friday as several U.S. states imposed business restrictions in response to the surge in COVID-19 cases, sentiment reversed completely even as stocks in Asia and Europe were generally muted overnight as the global death toll from the respiratory illness crossed half a million on Sunday

In premarket trading, Boeing rose 3.2% after the Federal Aviation Administration confirmed on Sunday it had approved key certification test flights for the grounded 737 MAX that could begin as soon Monday, while Facebook looked set to extend declines from Friday as a report said PepsiCo was set to join a growing number of companies pulling ad dollars from the social media platform.

“The recovery is going to be much slower and much more uneven than most people believe,” David Hunt, president and chief executive officer of PGIM Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “Markets are priced for a much sharper V-shaped recovery, which we don’t think is likely.”

European stocks were firmly in the green after starting off on the back food amid light trading volumes. In Asia, stocks fell more than 1% in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong. Japan’s Topix declined 1.8%, with DLE and Watabe Wedding falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.6%, with Anhui Xinli Finance and Xiamen C&D posting the biggest slides

As Bloomberg reports, “investors began the week studying conflicting signals, as virus deaths surpassed 500,000 globally and the epicenter moves to the America. With U.K. households amassing savings at a record level and paying down debt in May, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has promised a wave of investment in infrastructure and skills.”

In rates, Treasuries were mixed with the curve fractionally steeper into early U.S. session after paring gains as U.S. stock index futures moved higher. Bunds also bear-steepened, underperforming Treasuries. Session low yields were reached as virus cases continued to mount worldwide. Month- and quarter-end needs are expected eventually to provide support. Yields were cheaper by ~1bp in long-end tenors, steepening 5s30s by ~2bp, 2s10s by ~1bp; 10-year yields around 0.65%, cheaper by less than 1bp on the day while front end and belly are richer by less than 1bp; 5-year yield at ~0.30% is within 3bp of its May 8 record low. Bunds lagged by ~1bp vs Treasuries while gilts outperform by ~1bp.

In FX, the dollar started off strong but then edged lower against most Group-of-10 peers, though moves in the crosses were largely confined to narrow ranges; it earlier weakened after a coronavirus vaccine developed by a Chinese firm received approval for military use and a stronger- than-expected yuan fixing weighed on demand for haven assets. The euro advanced, supported by an acceleration in German state inflation rates; it touched an intraday high as European funds engaged in basket-selling of the dollar and bought the shared currency. The pound gave up an Asia session gain which had followed British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s promise of a “big plan” to help the U.K. bounce back from the coronavirus pandemic, as he seeks to revive his struggling political mission with a major speech on Tuesday. Australia’s dollar pared gains after earlier rising to an intra-day high amid corporated hedging activities into the end of the month and the nation’s fiscal year.

In commodities, oil kept falling after just its second weekly drop since April as coronavirus infections and fatalities surpassed grim milestones in a reminder the outbreak is far from under control in many parts of the world.

This holiday-shortened week (Friday is a day off, and the jobs report will be published on Thursday), investors will focus on employment, consumer confidence and manufacturing data for June for signs of whether the U.S. economy will continue to rebound after indications of a pickup in May. On today’s calendar we have pending home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, while the Treasury sells 13-week and 26-week bills. New York Fed President John Williams moderates a discussion with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,014
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 358.37
  • MXAP down 1.2% to 157.17
  • MXAPJ down 0.9% to 509.88
  • Nikkei down 2.3% to 21,995.04
  • Topix down 1.8% to 1,549.22
  • Hang Seng Index down 1% to 24,301.28
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 2,961.52
  • Sensex down 1% to 34,837.36
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.5% to 5,815.03
  • Kospi down 1.9% to 2,093.48
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to -0.468%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1248
  • Brent Futures down 2.1% to $40.16/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to 1.164%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 0.471%
  • Brent Futures down 1.2% to $40.52/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.13% to $1,769.05
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 97.31

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Deaths from the coronavirus worldwide topped 500,000 and infections surged past 10 million, two chilling reminders that the deadliest pandemic of the modern era is stronger than ever
  • Fast-money hedge funds are rushing to cover their bearish U.S. stock bets even as the equity rally threatens to break down. Speculative investors bought the most S&P 500 Index E-mini since 2007 in the week to June 23, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Net short positions in the contracts were at their highest in almost a decade as the U.S. equity rebound pushed the benchmark back toward record territory
  • Germany plans to raise 146 billion euros in the third quarter from bond sales and money market instruments, almost triple an earlier estimate, as the nation seeks to help spur an economic recovery from the coronavirus
  • China will impose a visa ban on U.S. citizens who interfere with sweeping national security legislation planned for Hong Kong, a move that comes shortly after the Trump administration imposed them on some officials in Beijing
  • The world’s biggest bond market is holding firm in its conviction that the revival of the American economy from the devastation of the pandemic will be slow and fragmented
  • The Swiss National Bank says the lower limit for the special liquidity-shortage financing facility rate will be reduced to at least 0% from current level of at least 0.5%

Asian bourses began the week lower across the board with sentiment dampened as focus remained on rising virus infection rates which has forced some key states to back-pedal on their reopening efforts with California, Texas and Florida imposing new restrictions, while the global death toll from the pandemic has surpassed the half million mark. ASX 200 (-1.5%) was dragged lower with energy underperforming the broad weakness seen across Australia’s sectors aside from gold miners which stayed resilient on the safe-haven play, and Nikkei 225 (-2.3%) was pressured after weaker than expected Retail Sales data and with the number of new infections in Tokyo rising to the most since the removal of the state of emergency declaration. Hang Seng (-1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) declined following a liquidity drain by the PBoC and amid concerns regarding the Hong Kong national security law in which the NPC Standing Committee reviewed a draft on the bill and are set for a vote tomorrow. This is likely to increase the ongoing US-China tensions, which was also not helped by comments from both sides as US Secretary of State Pompeo noted the US is imposing visa restrictions on Chinese Communist Party officials over the autonomy of Hong Kong as well as human rights issues, and Chinese officials warned the US of crossing red lines such as meddling in Hong Kong and Taiwan which could put the trade deal’s purchases at risk. Finally, 10yr JGBs were rangebound with price action only marginally benefitting from the broad risk-averse tone and BoJ’s presence in the market for a total of JPY 600bln of JGBs heavily concentrated in 5yr-10yr maturities. PBoC skipped reverse repos for a drain of CNY 40bln but conducted CNY 5bln of commercial bill swaps. (Newswires)

Top Asian News

  • Philippine Central Bank Chief Sees No Need for Rate Cut Now
  • Indonesia Nears Deal With Central Bank on Deficit Funding
  • Young Blood May Fail to Curb Japan’s Support for Coal Power

An eventful start to the week for the equity-space in terms of price action (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%) after the region initially picked up the baton from the relatively downbeat APAC handover. Europe opened with broad losses to the tune of around 0.4-0.5% before immediately trimming downside to trade firmly in positive territory. Thereafter gains dissipated with no fresh fundamental factors immediately affecting the bourses, however, repots that the Chinese Foreign Ministry will be putting visa restrictions on US relations over Hong Kong added to the US-Sino woes ahead of the National Security Bill vote tomorrow – expected to swiftly pass through for implementation from July 1st. It’s also worth bearing in mind month/quarter/HY-end flows influencing price actions as firms rebalance portfolios. Nonetheless, a mixed performance is now seen across major European cash bouses, whilst State-side, the E-Mini S&P failed to breach resistance at its 200 DMA ~3019.00 and currently meanders just under the key level.  Sectoral performance is also mixed after the regions opened mostly lower, albeit the IT sector holds its position as the outperformer, potentially on the back of AMS (+4.0%) after EU antitrust regulators gave the green light for its takeover of Osram Licht (+0.3%). The Energy sector meanwhile lags amid price action in the oil complex. The detailed breakdown paints a similarly mixed picture with no clear risk tone to be derived; Travel and Leisure (-0.3%) remains closer to the bottom of the pile as investors fear the repercussions in the sector in light of a second resurgence of global COVID-19 cases. In terms of individual movers, Wirecard (+145%) shares traded higher by over 200% at one point – potentially on consolidation from its recent detrimental performance as its scandal deepens, however, sources  over the weekend noted that that several investors are considering purchasing parts of Wirecard. Elsewhere, BP’s (+2.6%) gains were exacerbated as its stated that its Petrochemical unit sale to INEOS will further strengthen finances and will deliver USD 15bln divestment targets a year early. Airbus (+2.3%) shares opened lower with losses deeper than 2% as the group said it will cut production by around 40% over two-years. Commerzbank (+2.4%) holds onto opening gains as sources stated the board is looking at an aggressive cost-cutting plan – potentially including around 7,000 layoffs alongside 400 branch closures.

Top European News

  • BP Speeds Up Transformation With $5 Billion Chemicals Unit Sale
  • Europe Slowly Picks Up Pieces After Virus Shattered Economy
  • Inside the Brexit Talks, Frustration Starts to Give Way to Hope

In FX, the DXY is holding between 97.051-141 parameters amidst the ongoing resurgence of COVID-19 in several US states, but with technical support via the 21 DMA at 97.050 keeping the index underpinned above 97.000 as the clock ticks down to the end of June, Q2 and the first half of 2020. Moreover, several Greenback/G10 pairs are also observing chart levels against the backdrop of fragile/fluid risk sentiment on a variety of (mainly geopolitical) factors beyond the coronavirus and uncertainty about 2nd waves as more countries reopen. Back to the Buck, pending home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index may provide some fundamental impetus ahead of Fed rhetoric from Daly and Williams.

  • EUR – A marginal outperformer and trying to extend gains above 1.1200 vs the Dollar, but finding resistance around 1.1250, the 200 HMA (1.1241) and 1.1240 pivot tough to convincingly breach before decent option expiry interest at 1.1270 (1 bn) in the run up to preliminary German CPI data. However, the single currency has cleared a psychological, if not really significant from a technical standpoint, marker against Sterling as Eur/Gbp crosses 0.9100 for the first time in some 3 months awaiting the start of intensive Brexit trade talks.
  • NZD/CHF/CAD/AUD – All marginally firmer vs the Usd, but rangy with the Kiwi hovering above 0.6400 and Franc over 0.9500, though the latter lagging Euro either side of 1.0650 following latest weekly Swiss sight bank deposits showing a rebound in both domestic and total balances. Elsewhere, the Loonie is holding within a 1.3697-46 band ahead of Canadian building permits and ppi even though crude prices remain soft and the Aussie is straddling 0.6865-70 despite a record rise in Victorian virus cases.
  • JPY/GBP/SEK/NOK – The Yen is sitting just under 107.00 and right in the middle of 10/50 DMAs at the round number and 107.37 respectively after sub-forecast Japanese retail sales overnight, while Cable is drifting back down from circa 1.2390 towards sub-1.2315 stops after weaker than expected UK consumer credit mortgage approvals, but perhaps more jittery about the aforementioned next phase of negotiations with the EU. Nevertheless, offers are said to be in place around 1.2410 and close to the 50 DMA (1.2412-15), while nearest upside targets in Eur/Gbp are at 0.9139 and 0.9144 (March 23 and 24 peaks respectively). Similarly, the Swedish Crown is underperforming in wake of a much narrower trade surplus. Indeed, Eur/Sek is back up near 10.5000, while Eur/Nok pivoting 10.9000 irrespective of the downturn in oil noted above.
  • EM – Broad declines vs the Dollar, and especially the crude/commodity bloc, such as the Rouble and Mexican Peso, but the Turkish Lira deriving some comfort from an improvement in economic confidence with Usd/Try rotating around 6.8500.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures trade choppy within a tight range, albeit remain in negative territory after the complex kicked off the trading week on the backfoot amid rising global COVID-19 infections hampering reopening efforts in key US states, whilst some eastern Asian countries extended their alerts level and China’s Hebei province put around half a million residents under a Wuhan-style lockdown. Aside from virus woes, news-flow has been quiet from a fundamental standpoint. Participants will want to keep an eye on how the Hong Kong National Security Bill pans out for wide US-China relations as the sides slap tit-for-tat visa restrictions over the city. WTI August hovers just above USD 38/bbl having found support at USD 37.50/bbl while its Brent counterpart sees itself north of USD 40.50/bbl after touted support touted last week around the USD 40.05/bbl region. Elsewhere, spot gold trades with modest losses sub-1770/oz; albeit more a function of month-end rebalancing as opposed to risk-tone or Dollar dynamics. Copper prices meanwhile climbed over a five-month peak in Shanghai amid a softer Buck and supply risks from its top producer Chile.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 18.0%, prior -21.8%; YoY, est. -22.0%, prior -34.6%
  • 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -22, prior -49.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This is the first time I’ve written any piece of work – well since I was doing my GCSEs at school – where I do so in an environment where Liverpool are English Premier League champions. It feels good. I had the day off from the EMR on Friday which was handy as I stayed up late watching the celebrations on telly Thursday night. Let’s hope it’s not the only year of my career where this is the case!! The only bad news from Thursday was that I had bad back spasms playing in the Worplesdon Pro-Am Charity golf tournament and hobbled off the course at the end only just breaking 90!! I play off 6 for context. I’ve completely remodelled my swing over the last 15 months. It now looks beautiful but struggles to connect with the ball properly or send it in a straight line. I’m not sure how much longer I’ll give it before I go back to ugly but effective!

The headline covid case numbers also don’t look too pretty at the moment as we passed 10 million reported cases globally over the weekend and 500k fatalities. Obviously this is only a proportion of the actual case load so it’s difficult to derive too much info from the figure other than the fact that the numbers have been increasing of late, partly due to the wider reported spread of the virus in the Americas and in the likes of India. However the accelerating case numbers also reflects increased testing as well. Fatalities aren’t rising to anything like the same degree as they did in March and April but it’s not easy to work out how much of that is due to more testing diluting the case fatality rate, how much it’s due to better treatment of the virus, and how much is due to a lower risk demographic contracting the virus. As an anecdote, on Friday it was reported via a University of Oxford study that in England, the hospital fatality rate from covid has dropped from 6% at the peak to around 1.5% in June and still declining. It seems we are better at treating the virus now which is good news and it’s also likely that the more vulnerable are being better shielded.

So if this continues it should be seen as a positive. However for now while the virus spread increases in the US there is going to be a lot of concern and confusion about the strategy and the end outcome, especially in the hotspot states and whether it spreads back into the states where the virus has been suppressed.

The latest over the weekend points to things getting worse in case numbers in southern US. The weekly average of covid-19 cases in the US has now surpassed the heights of the spring, while the US recorded an all-time high in new cases on Saturday with over 45,400. Texas, Florida and Arizona have either paused or rolled back reopening plans in light of the new cases, however they are not enacting stricter measures that were seen earlier in the pandemic in places like New York. Over the weekend, Florida Governor DeSantis cited people in the 18-to-44 age group as the cause of the recent rise in positive Covid-19 tests. The Governor said, “Most of this is not because of people going to work, it’s because they’re being social”. This does not sound like someone who wants to shut businesses down again.

While Texas, Florida and Arizona remain among the most worrying in terms of new cases, other southern US states have either slowed down reopening plans or indicated intentions to do so. The positive test rate for Texas has now soared to a record 14.3%. Arkansas, just northeast of Texas, announced they will pause their phased reopening until the current wave subsides, while other neighboring states have indicated similar intentions if case counts continue to rise. In terms of the effective transmission rates (Rt), 33 US states now have Rt values over 1.0. In fact only 2 states, Connecticut and Massachusetts, have their entire confidence level under 1.0 at this point, compared to 7 over 1.0. Fatality rates have yet to see spikes similar to that of cases, and as we have discussed this is hopefully a result of protecting the higher risk and improving treatment. Though for the medium term it seems like US economies are set to reinstitute pauses if the case count continues to get out of hand. So even though the virus seems to be becoming less deadly, confidence has been shaken so much that countries will struggle economically while case levels remain high. In the pdf today (“view report”) we show the usual global case and fatality tables and also repeat the 7 day lagged charts of case and fatalities in the US and the four big hot spot states. We also show what happened with NY for a comparison. There are some signs that deaths in Arizona are responding higher to some degree to lagged case growth but for now the other states are seeing the relationship weaken which is good news. It’s the same for the US overall, especially relative to the first wave.

In terms of markets, bourses in Asia are on the back foot this morning following the heavy losses on Wall Street on Friday with the Nikkei (-2.02%), Hang Seng (-1.59%), Shanghai Comp (-0.71%), Kospi (-1.53%) and ASX (-1.75%) all down. Meanwhile, futures on the S&P 500 are down a much more modest -0.10% and yields on 10y USTs are flat. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil prices are down -1.87% to $37.77.

Here in the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in an interview in the Mail yesterday that the UK will spend large sums on hospitals, schools and roads to jump-start the economy while rejecting a return to the austerity policies that followed the 2008 financial crisis. PM Johnson is expected to unveil the spending plans in a major speech on Tuesday. In other overnight news, Bloomberg has reported that China’s imports of US goods through May reached c. 19% of the total target for 2020 set in the phase 1 trade deal. China purchased 22.1% of targeted manufactured products, 20.8% of targeted agricultural products and 3.1% of targeted energy products. Meanwhile, French central bank head Francois Villeroy de Galhau played down the prospect that the ECB would buy high yield bonds as part of its pandemic emergency program saying “the debate is probably not urgent,” while further adding “I rule out that we buy bonds that were rated ‘junk’ before the crisis.” However, he also said that the ECB must examine whether it can reduce the dependence of its monetary policy on rating companies.

As for this week, we’ll see a shortened trading period with Friday a US holiday in lieu of Independence Day on Saturday. Thursday will likely see activity wind down early and rapidly ahead of the weekend. The last major act of the week will therefore likely to be the all-important payrolls report brought forward to Thursday. Our US economists are looking for a further +2m gain in non-farm payrolls, following last month’s unexpected +2.509m increase, along with a further reduction in the unemployment rate to 12.6%. This improved labour market performance chimes with what we’ve seen in other indicators, such as the weekly initial jobless claims that have fallen for 12 consecutive weeks now. That said, it’s worth remembering that given the US shed over 22m jobs in March and April, even another +2m reading would still mean that payrolls have recovered less than a quarter of their total losses, suggesting there’s still a long way to go before the labour market returns to normality again.

The other main data highlight will be the final June PMI releases from around the world. The manufacturing numbers are out on Wednesday before the services and composite PMIs come out on Friday for the most part (ex US), while there’ll also be the ISM manufacturing index too from the US (on Wednesday). For the countries where we already have a flash PMI reading, they generally surprised to the upside, even as many remained below the 50-mark. It’ll also be worth keeping an eye on the numbers for China, given they’re some way ahead in the reopening process relative to the US and Europe.

In politics, a key highlight this week will be a meeting between Chancellor Merkel and President Macron taking place today, where both the EU budget and the recovery fund will be on the agenda. That comes ahead of another summit of EU leaders scheduled for the 17-18th July, where the 27 leaders will meet in person in Brussels for further discussions on the recovery fund. Meanwhile, the start of July on Wednesday formally sees Germany take over the rotating EU presidency, which they’ll hold for the next six months.

Staying with politics, Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU on their future relationship will return once again. This will be the first set of intensified talks that are taking place every week over the next five weeks, as the two sides look to come to an agreement following fairly slow progress in the talks thus far. Since the last round of negotiations, a high-level meeting took place between Prime Minister Johnson and the Presidents of the European Commission, Council and Parliament, where the two sides agreed in their statement that “new momentum was required” in the discussions. There does seem a bit more positivity now than there was a month ago but much work still needs to be done.

Elsewhere we have the release of the FOMC minutes for the June meeting on Wednesday, along with an appearance by Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin tomorrow before the House Financial Services Committee. Otherwise, speakers next week include the BoE’s Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Cunliffe, along with the ECB’s Schnabel and New York Fed President Williams.

Recapping last week now. Global equities fell on the week with the S&P 500 falling -2.86% (-2.42% Friday) and is now down -1.16% for the month of June with two days of trading left in the month. This could be the first monthly loss since March. The tech-focused NASDAQ underperformed slightly last week, down -3.31% (-2.84% Friday) but is +2.82% in June so far. European equities outperformed the S&P as case growth remains relatively contained versus in the US, with the Stoxx 600 falling a lesser -1.95% (-0.39% Friday) over the five days. The pullback was well correlated as the DAX (-1.96%), FTSE MIB (-2.52%), and FTSE 100 (-2.12%) indices all fell to similar degrees on the week. Asian indices were more mixed. The Nikkei rose +0.15% over the week (+1.13% Friday) and the CSI 300 was up +0.98% on a 3 day week, while the Kospi fell -0.31% (+1.05% Friday).

With concerns over the implications for global growth if the recent virus spread continues, oil prices fell on the week. Brent crude futures fell -2.77% (-0.07% Friday) to $41.02/barrel and WTI crude retreated -3.17% on the week (-0.59% Friday) to $38.49/barrel. In other commodities, gold rallied +1.57% (+0.43% Friday) to levels last seen in October 2012.

Gold was not the only haven to rally with risk assets weakening. Core sovereign bonds gained on the week with US 10yr Treasury yields falling -5.2bps (-4.4bps Friday) to finish at 0.641%, while 10yr Bund yields fell -6.7bps over the course of the week (-1.4bps Friday) to -0.48%. UK gilts fell -6.6bps (+1.8bps Friday) to 0.17%. As risk sentiment turned, peripheral debt widened slightly on the week. Spanish 10yr yields widened +3.2bps to German bunds over the 5 days, while Portuguese bonds widened +1.6bps and Greece bonds widened +5.3bps. Credit spreads widened considerably more, particularly in the US. US HY cash credit spreads were +39bps wider on the week (+11bps Friday), while IG widened +5bps (+1bp). European HY cash spreads were + 17bps wider (unchanged Friday) with IG just +5bps wider (unchanged Friday).

On the data front, US consumer spending rose +8.2% (vs. +9.3% exp.) from the prior month on Friday. This was the highest monthly increase in over 60 years of data keeping, but the overall level still remains far below pre-pandemic levels. This follows spending falling the most on record in April. Incomes declined -4.2% (vs. -6.0% exp.), just below the record decrease, after last month’s ‘largest-ever’ increase that was primarily driven by household relief payments. The University of Michigan Sentiment survey rose from 72.3 to 78.1 (vs. 79.2 exp.), but remains near 7 year lows. The sentiment data was similar in Europe where French consumer confidence rose to 97 from 93 (vs. 95 exp.), while Italian consumer confidence rose 7.3pts to 100.6 (vs. 97.5 exp.). So while sentiment is improving off the lows in April and May, there is still a lot of recovery left. Lastly, Euro Area M3 money supply growth for May was +8.9% (vs. +8.7% exp.).

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 18.03 POINTS OR 0.61%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 248.71 POINTS OR 1.01%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 517.04 POINTS OR 2.30%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.60%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0756 /Oil UP TO 38.75 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0756 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0720 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/GLOBE/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/SUNDAY

Coronavirus Cases Top 10 Million As China Places 500,000 On “Strict Lockdown” Following Latest Cluster: Live Updates

The global coronavirus total topped 10 million late Saturday night in the US as a handful of Asian nations reported their case totals for Sunday morning, finally pushing the total over the top. To be sure, there are likely millions of cases that have gone uncounted. But reaching the eight-figure mark is certainly an important psychological milestone, particularly since daily totals for new cases continue to climb.

Roughly a quarter of these cases have been confirmed in the US, which has seen its case total pass 2.5 million, while US deaths are ~125k. JHU counted 499,342 deaths globally as of 1030ET on Sunday.

As more Republicans turn on President Trump and press him to step up and “lead”, or risk allowing Joe Biden to win the election without leaving the basement, the Atlantic-run (and Laurene Powell Jobs-funded) COVID-19 Tracking Project has made an interesting point.

The number of cases confirmed during the outbreak in the northeast represents only a small portion of the total, while the timing of the outbreak in the south and west means more of the actual case total is being captured.

With that in mind, even when it comes to the number of cases being reported daily, the current outbreak probably isn’t as severe as the outbreaks we saw in New York City and the Greater New York area (and surrounding states), even though the daily US national case totals are ~technically~ at fresh all-time highs.

The US saw ~43k new cases reported yesterday, a near-record total and the second straight (some say fourth-straight) day of 40k+ cases.

Another round of rumors about Dr. Fauci being “muzzled” by the White House (despite the fact that he just made another round of interviews) is hitting on Sunday. At this point, the stories are nothing new.

Testing has remained above 500k tests a day, a sign that testing has continued to improve (perhaps more ‘protesters’ are finally taking Gov Cuomo’s advice and getting tested?) despite President Trump’s remarks about trying to slow testing during the early days of the epidemic (there’s no evidence he did, though the sentiment isn’t exactly encouraging).

Deaths declined for the fourth day in a row, according to the numbers reported yesterday (which – remember – are reported with a 24-hour delay).

Florida reported a record jump in cases yesterday, its second record increase in a row, and at least the third in the past five days.

Outside of the US, perhaps the biggest news overnight arrives from China, where the Xiongan New Area south of Beijing has been locked down on Saturday, with measures including closing villages, communities and buildings to anyone who doesn’t legally reside in the area, . Hebei province surrounds the federally administered capital city of Beijing. More than half a million people have been placed on a strict lockdown due to this latest outbreak.

Beijing has ramped up coronavirus testing efforts and has tested about one-third of the capital city’s population. It’s believe this outbreak is an extension of the cases stemming from the Xinfadi food market in southwestern Beijing, detected earlier this month.

As of midnight in the US on Sunday, Beijing had run nearly 8 million tests according to, Zhang Qiang, an official from the Beijing municipal committee.

The governor in Australia’s second-most-populous state said Sunday that his government is considering targeted stay-at-home orders and locking down suburbs to contain coronavirus clusters in Melbourne. Australia reported 53 new cases on Sunday, 49 of them in Victoria, which raised the country’s total to 7,686 cases and 104 deaths. The latest cluster comes as Australia and neighboring New Zealand had mostly eradicated the virus. Victoria, the state which Melbourne serves as the capital, has reported new cases during 5 of the last 6 days, and was regularly reporting 0 cases a day as recently as June 9. About 40k residents of the state have been tested since Friday.

Iran is also struggling through a rebound in cases, and the hard-hit country is making masks mandatory in public. But the WHO on Sunday declared that the Philippines has seen the fastest increase in COVID-19 cases in the Western Pacific region. According to GMA News Online, between June 16 and 28, the total number of new cases in the Philippines was 9,655; that’s nearly 4x Singapore, which came in second with 2,610 new cases.

 end
CHINA/USA
In a tit for tat operation:  China imposes visa restrictions on USA officials interfering in Hong Kong affairs
(zerohedge)

Tit For Tat: China Imposes Visa Restrictions On US Officials Interfering In Hong Kong

In the latest diplomatic tit-for-tat with the US, China announced Monday that it would impose visa restrictions on US government officials who “behave egregiously” in connection to Hong Kong affairs, according to the South China Morning Post. Chinese Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian urged Washington to stop meddling in Hong Kong affairs and warned that Beijing would use powerful countermeasures if the US continues to interfere.

 

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian

“The U.S. is attempting to obstruct China’s legislation for safeguarding national security in the HK SAR (Hong Kong Special Administrative Region) by imposing the so-called sanctions, but it will never succeed,” he told reporters. “In response … China has decided to impose visa restrictions on U.S. individuals with egregious conduct on HK related issues” he said quoted by Reuters.

“Who will be the targets? Relevant people would know clearly themselves,” he added.

Zhao also told reporters that China has lodged a complaint with the U.S. over the bill and warned that Beijing will respond with strong countermeasures in response to U.S. actions on Hong Kong.

Monday’s announcement is in retaliation for Washington’s decision last week to restrict visas for Chinese government officials who threaten Hong Kong’s autonomy.

“No matter how Hong Kong separatists squawk, and no matter what kind of pressure is exerted by external anti-China forces, their scheme to obstruct the passage of the Hong Kong national security law will never prevail, and the bill is but a piece of waste paper,” he added, referring to the US Senate’s passage of the Hong Kong Autonomy Act last week.

Last week, Mike Pompeo said that US visa restrictions would apply to “current and former officials” of China’s ruling Communist Party, “believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy.” European Union leaders recently told Chinese President Xi Jinping of “negative consequences” if it passes the law in Hong Kong.

The latest flare up in tensions is as a result of China controversial national security law which allows Beijing to set up a national security office in Hong Kong, which will gather intelligence and “handle crimes” against national security. The move will allow China to counter pro-democracy protesters and “foreign forces” (i.e., the US) who attempt to destabilize Hong Kong.

The tit-for-tat visa restrictions come as tensions between Beijing and Washington are flaring up over trade deal purchase commitments, origins of the virus pandemic, and territory disputes in the South China Sea.

END
CHINA/GLOBE/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/MONDAY
Should be interesting:  WHO launches an investigation into the origins of the COVID 19
(zerohedge)

WHO Launches Investigation Into COVID-19’s China Origins; California Sees Another 5,307 Cases: Live Updates

Summary:

  • WHO plans to launch investigation into China next week
  • India reports new daily record with almost 20k new cases
  • Cali reports 5,307 new cases, up 2.5%
  • Cuomo releases latest NY figures, says he’s mulling indoor dining delay
  • Decision on indoor dining will come by Wednesday
  • Bangladesh reports record daily case jump
  • WHO warns outbreak “not even close” to being over
  • Deaths in NY drop to just 8
  • NYC mulls plan to delay indoor dining reopening
  • Florida reports latest COVID-19 cases
  • Unconfirmed Texas hospitalization data hits
  • Global deaths passed 500k last night
  • Victoria reports another ~75 cases
  • China reports another handful of new cases

* * *

Update (1230ET): India reported a staggering new record in daily cases on Monday: nearly 20,000 cases were reported as certain cities imposed new social distancing measures following a lengthy countrywide lockdown. On Sunday, India opened what will be the country’s largest COVID-19 hospital, the Sardar Patel Covid Care Center. It will have 10,000 beds, officials confirmed. India has reported more than half a million cases, and more than 16k deaths. Nearly 100k cases were confirmed over the past week.

* * *

Update (1215ET): The WHO’s Dr. Tedros just announced that the organization’s investigation into China’s handling of the early days of the pandemic will begin next week, when an “independent” WHO delegation will arrive in China.

Reactions on twitter were dominated by comic takes by notable China cynics like Mark Spiegel.

* * *

Update (1200ET): California just reported 5,307 new cases for Monday, up 10% from Sunday’s more promising numbers, though still below a record daily case number closer to 7k. Deaths declined by 3% to just 32 for the entire state.

Source: NBC News

In other news, reports about the EU edging toward finalizing a list of countries whose citizens won’t be allowed into the EU after it lifts border restrictions early next month are surfacing again. And guess what? It’s looking increasingly likely that the US is going to be on it.

Source: NBC News

The market dipped on the Cali numbers.

* * *

Update (1145ET): Cuomo just released his latest numbers during today’s briefing.

As for indoor dining, Cuomo gave no final answer, saying the state would consult with “stake holders” and try to have an answer by Wednesday.

The big news is that the number of deaths recorded in the state was just 8 over the last 24 hours.

At one time, the state was reporting more than 800 deaths a day, Cuomo reminded his audience. The “R” rate, meanwhile, is .8, with Cuomo saying the state’s goal is to keep it “below 1”.

The infection rate has continued to drop in NYC, though it remains higher in the outer boroughs. Cuomo said the city’s contact tracing system is “working very well”, contrary to earlier reports.

Meanwhile, during a briefing in Geneva, WHO’s Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that the global outbreak “isn’t even close to being over,” and is instead speeding up. He blamed the “lack of unity” around the world for the calamity.

Internationally, Bangladesh just reported more than 4k new cases, bringing its total to 141k+ following its largest daily jump yet.

* * *

Update (1050ET): As Blaz warns about the possibility of delaying the return of indoor dining for when NYC is expected to enter Phase 3 of its reopening plan on July 6, Gov Cuomo is preparing to hold a briefing on Monday, as criticism of his handling of nursing homes and long-term care facilities faces growing scrutiny.

Cuomo ended his daily COVID-19 briefings more than a week ago.

Circling back to the mayor, Hizzoner said he had spoken with his arch-rival Cuomo about what’s been going on elsewhere in the country, and said that indoor dining has emerged as “an area of concern”.

“We are now going to reexamine the indoor dining rules for Phase 3,” he said.

* * *

Update (1035ET): Florida has reported its latest daily and weekly COVID-19 data

  • FLORIDA COVID-19 CASES RISE 3.7% VS. PREVIOUS 7-DAY AVG. 5.5%

Looks like the positive numbers helped push stocks even higher.

* * *

As we reported last night the number of confirmed coronavirus deaths topped 500k according to data released Sunday, while the US recorded nearly 45k cases on Sunday, below the last daily record set a few days ago, but still above the 40k level. Following VP Pence’s appearance alongside Texas Gov Greg Abbott on Sunday to ask Americans to please wear masks in public, a notable about-face from a press briefing on Friday, has set tongues wagging.

With the global outbreak having just surpassed 10 million cases and half a million deaths, two major milestones, over the weekend, perhaps the biggest news this morning was Gilead’s release of its pricing menu for remdesivir, its widely hyped drug for treating COVID-19 that is less effective than a much-cheaper steroid called dexamethasone, which has proven more effective at lower mortality. Remdesivir was originally developed to treat Ebola, but one virus is as good as the next, right?

As fears about the worsening outbreaks in Latin America and Africa mount, with South Africa seeing a troubling surge in cases. Despite already having more than one-third of the reported cases for all 54 countries on the continent of more than 1.3 billion. More than 4,300 people have been hospitalized out of South Africa’s 138,000 confirmed cases, the country’s Health Minister Zwelini Mkhize said in a statement.

“We are seeing a rapid rise in the cumulative number of positive COVID-19 cases indicating that, as we had expected, we are approaching a surge during the…months of July and August,” Mkhize said…”It is anticipated that while every province will unfortunately witness an increase in their numbers, areas where there is high economic activity will experience an exponential rise.” He added that cities like Johannesburg and Cape Town are at the greatest risk for major outbreaks.

China on Monday reported 12 new confirmed cases, including five imported cases. The seven domestic infections were all in Beijing, where 1/3rd of residents have been tested since the latest “outbreak” at a local food wholesale market began earlier this month.

With a brief pause in US news, our attention turned to CNBC Monday morning where former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb warned that up to half of Americans could have been infected with the virus by the end of the year.

“By the time we get to the end of this year, probably close to half the population will have had coronavirus, and that’s if we just stay at our current rate,” he said during an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“We don’t need to vaccinate the entire population because a lot of people would have already had this by the time we get to a vaccination,” he added.

Although younger people appear to be the most impacted during this latest wave, all that could change as transmission rates increase.

“Eventually, it will start to seep into older people, more vulnerable people, and you’ll start to see the total number of deaths go up even if the death rate has come down,” he said. “We’ll probably get above 1,000 deaths a day on average as the infection starts to widen out.”

And again, this is assuming the rate of spread remains steady: if it gets worse, so will the outcome.

Instagram Founder Kevin Systrom also appeared on CNBC this morning to share data from a public COVID-19 tracking platform he’s launched, which features this nifty display showing where each state’s rate of spread is relative to the spectrum seen since the beginning of the pandemic.

 

As lengthy food bank lines appear to keep getting longer in the US, the World Food Program warned Monday that the socioeconomic fallout from the pandemic will be “devastating” for middle and low-income nations, possibly leading to food shortages and famines not seen in decades. The organization believes the rate of hunger in the poorest nations will have nearly doubled by year’s end.

In further bad news, the Australian state of Victoria found 75 new cases of coronavirus in the past 24 hours before Monday morning (local time), the highest daily total in 2 months, a total that is “absolutely concerning” according to county health officials who have launched a “testing blitz” and are also warning that lockdowns and other social distancing measures might be reintroduced.

Finally, there have been unconfirmed reports about Texas coronavirus hospitalizations rising another 7.5% over the last day, which would be bad news for a hospital system that is becoming worryingly stretched. Some Houston-area hospitals belonging to the Texas Medical Center hospital systems have stopped publishing ICU numbers as they claimed they caused needless panic since ICUs are often run at or near full capacity. They have insisted there is plenty of ‘overflow’ capacity that can be brought online.

Another important headline out of the US: NYC Mayor de Blasio now weighing whether to further delay the reopening of indoor dining, which has already started in the city in some places.

And with that, the few remaining independent restauranteurs in NYC will likely seriously rethink their plans to try and persevere.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY/SARDINIA

This is crippling to Sardinia and to Italy.  They will need huge amounts of food to be imported.

(COURTESY CGTN/EUROPE)

 

There’s nothing left’ – Sardinian farmland stripped by locust swarms

Updated 23:10, 25-Jun-2020
Marco Carlone and Daniela Sestito
03:25

 

Sardinian farmers could have been forgiven for getting worried when a swarm of locusts arrived at the Italian island in the midst of a global pandemic.

“When the locusts arrived in mid-May, my cabbages were small, it wasn’t harvest time yet, they were all still in the field. Then the swarm came through, started to devour all the leaves, leaving only the stem.

“Instead of abandoning the crop to them, I preferred to pick it in advance and donate it to a charity for people in need.”

Giovanni is a farmer from Bolotana, a small town in central Sardinia. His and 200 other farms have been hit by a swarm of Moroccan locusts that have been devastating the Tirso valley since April.

 

These insects have destroyed fields, pastures, grasslands, and invaded houses and gardens. Swarms of the same species had already caused damage in summer 2019 in an area of about 2,000 hectares.

“The locusts feed on the most protein-rich part of the plants, so once the swarm enters the hayfield, there is nothing left for the flock,” says Alessandro, a young local shepherd.

 

In just one year, the infested area has increased tenfold, reaching 20,000-25,000 hectares. And we are still in full development
 –  Alessandro Serra, National Confederation of farmers

He mowed his grasslands to keep locusts away, but there are still some left. “I can see it from the seagulls roaming my land: they come here to look for locusts and find plenty of them.”

Another shepherd, Riccardo, has suffered a similar fate, and was forced to buy bales of hay from mainland Italy to feed his flock. “We also needed to put a net on the chimney to prevent locusts from entering the house,” he explained.

 

Sardinia’s farmers produce vegetables including fennel and cabbage, which are feasted on by the locusts. /Marco Carlone, Daniela Sestito/CGTN

Arsenic and flamethrowers

Locust infestations are not something new for the islanders. “The Sardinians have always been fighting them, by any means necessary – with arsenic in the early 1900s, with flamethrowers in the 1930s,” explains Roberto Pantaleoni, entomologist at the University of Sassari.

Soon after World War II, a major locust invasion required the intervention of the whole population and the army. To contain the infestation, islanders introduced a small beetle that feeds on locust eggs. “About 20,000 beetles were collected in continental Italy and then transported here,” explains Pantaleoni.

From the 1940s, however, the invasions gradually waned – thanks, in part, to agricultural mechanization. The increase in cultivated land meant less space for the proliferation of locusts, which lay eggs in soil and require it to be undisturbed for their incubation period to reproduce.

In recent years, however, with the progressive depopulation of Sardinia’s inland countryside, the trend has turned. The locusts are back.

 

Warmer climates has seen a resurgence of the insect. /Marco Carlone, Daniela Sestito/CGTN

How locusts benefit from climate change

Ignazio Floris, an entomologist at the University of Sassari, has studied the locust infestations that have occurred in the last two years. He says that besides depopulation, climate trends and rising temperatures are playing a key role.

“In recent years we have seen bizarre and particularly dry weather conditions in Sardinia in spring and summer,” says Floris, “and this is certainly one of the predisposing factors that has favored this phenomenon.”

READ MORE: Why locusts such a huge threat to Africa

With the farmers powerless against climate trends at a territorial level, according to the professor, locust infestations can be stopped by targeting the insects before they hatch or when they are young, before they can fly. At that stage they have no wings, move slowly and form concentrated clusters.

“This year the invaded areas have been mapped,” notes Floris – “a good prerequisite for intervention in due course for the next year.”

Italy is not alone in its plight. This year there have been locust swarms, spurred on by climate change, from Pakistan to Kenya, where the swarms are also at their largest in decades.

Experts are predicting that without an international effort, locust plagues could become a regular occurrence, triggering food shortages across the world.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HAMAS

Expect fireworks on July first, if Israel proceeds with its planned Israeli annexation.  Hamas is ready for a “declaration of War”. The IDF says that they are ready.

(zerohedge)

Hamas Says Planned Israeli Annexation A “Declaration Of War” While IDF Vows ‘We’re Ready’

In late April Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shocked the region in declaring he expects that by middle of summer Israel would move to annex broad swathes of the West Bank, including the Jordan Valley, as part of Trump’s “deal of the century” peace plan. The date consistently referenced in Israeli media reports is July 1st.

“President Trump pledged to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Jewish communities there and in the Jordan Valley,” Netanyahu said. And just this week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo responded to an urgent United Nations appeal not to go through with it ahead of the July 1 target date by saying the matter is solely up to Israel to decide.

This as senior Trump aides reportedly met this week to hash out the matter of whether the administration should give the final “green light” – given it appears Tel Aviv is awaiting the moment of unambiguous backing before annexation. This is because it is sure to spark conflict on the ground. Hamas on Thursday said that annexation will be “a declaration of war”.

 

Hamas file image: AFP

Hamas military spokesperson Abu Obeida vowed that Israel will “bitterly regret” such a provocative decision and act of aggressive, Fox News reports. He called it a “declaration of war against the Palestinian people” in a video message directed both at Israel and for supporters. He vowed his Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades will fight as a “loyal guard in defending the Palestinian people and their lands and holy sites.”

Previously senior Hamas officials also said any hope for political dialogue or settlement would be forever destroyed. “Palestinians would not accept these plans at all. They are going to resist these plans by all means available. Gaza is not excluded from this,” another official, Basem Naim, said.

Already the planned annexation has resulted in large protests this week in West Bank cities and towns.

It also appears the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are making ready: “The upcoming events can develop into fighting in Gaza,” IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi said as Israel braces for a possible new intifada. The IDF has essentially said ‘we’re ready to go’.

 

Former Army Chief of Staff Benny Gantz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have formed a power sharing unity government. Image: JTA-Wikimedia

“I suggest that Hamas leaders remember that they will be the first to pay for any aggression,” Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz stated Thursday. Gantz is also serving as ‘alternate PM’ as part of the power-sharing agreement with Netanyahu. He further underscored that Israel “will not accept threats”.

The Palestinians from the start have rejected the Trump peace plan, given it allows Israel to annex up to 30% to 40% of the West Bank, including all of East Jerusalem, and further the Palestinian Authority (PA) has claimed it was never ultimately invited to the table as an equal part to negotiations, but that Israel has gotten everything it wants without sacrificing anything.

END

Israel/Iran

Israel is on the brink of war with Iran and Hezbollah.

(AlMasdarnews)

Israel Is On Brink Of War With Iran & Hezbollah: Top Israeli Officials

Via AlMasdarNews.com,

The former Israeli Defense Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, said that Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah are pushing Israel to the brink.

In an interview with Israel’s national Hebrew-language daily newspaper Maariv on Friday, the former Israeli Defense Minister had expressed his concern about Iran possessing enriched uranium, which he said is eight times the permitted amount according to the nuclear agreement, and that a month ago Iran successfully launched a spy satellite into orbit.

 

Former Israeli Defense Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, via Reuters.

Lieberman further charged that Hezbollah is now building a precision missile factory in honor of the late Iranian Quds Force commander, General Qassem Soleimani, which is pushing Israel to the brink, claiming that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no plans to confront them.

Lieberman said Iran is continuing its ongoing policies in its regular military programs and continues to fund Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Islamic Jihad, although Iran faces enormous economic difficulties of its own.

However, despite Lieberman’s claims, Israel has in fact intensified their attacks against the Iranian forces and allies inside Syria this year, with multiple attacks taking place each month.

Last week, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were believed to have bombed not only eastern Hama (Salamiyah District), but also, a number of sites between the Al-Sweida and Deir Ezzor governorates.

 

end

Iran

a massive explosion inside Iran.  Israel?

(zerohedge)

Satellite Images Suggest Massive Iran ‘Mystery’ Explosion Was At Secret Missile Site

It began with Iranian claims of a mere accidental gas pipeline explosion or blast that was the result of gas leak at a civilian storage site in the desert late last week.

This after multiple videos emerged online showing what appeared a huge fireball and multiple flashes lighting up the night sky at around midnight Thursday. Clearly a massive blast, it prompted Iran’s defense ministry to address it, given it was in the vicinity of a sensitive military site.

 

NY Times based on eyewitness video accounts: “An explosion turned the skyline east of the capital, Tehran, a bright orange for several seconds.”

A military spokesperson dismissed it as an accident a gas storage facility in a “public area” of Parchin, about 20 miles southeast of Tehran, in statements to sate TV, but it didn’t take long for analysts in the West to identify the area as being close to alleged secretive missile factories.

This based on satellite images said to pinpoint the blast site:

Iran may have been up to more than it claims after mysterious explosions ripped apart an area near secretive missile factories in the hills east of Tehran.

Images have identified a burned area in the hills near the Khojir Missile Production Complex.

Regional media is now speculating that something worse may have happened when a massive explosion lit up the night skies over Iran last week. Theories initially pointed to Parchin as the location of the explosion. Iranian media claimed it was just a gas leak at a storage facility.

Prior explosions at missile and other defense testing sites have previously been covered up or downplayed by the Islamic Republic, reports suggest.

Initially on Friday even Iranian media described the explosion, heard and seen for miles, as a mystery blast. “The cause of this sound and light is not yet known, but it was clearly heard in Pardis, in Boumhen and surrounding areas” of the Iranian capital, Mehr news agency had reported.

Further fueling the speculation is that tensions with Israel and the United States are still soaring, given Iran’s moving forward with developing uranium enrichment capabilities – blowing past caps in place under the JCPOA – which Tehran has all along said is for peaceful nuclear energy.

But Israel believes Tehran both pursuing warheads and the ability to launch.

Anytime such unexplained ‘explosions in the desert’ happen in Iran, there’s also the question of possible Israeli jet or drone attacks, given Israeli Air Force strikes on Iranian targets inside Syria have become so frequent as to be a near weekly occurrence of late.

end

LIBYA/RUSSIA MERCENARIES/OIL

It seems that Russian mercenaries are now embedded with Hafter and together they are blocking oil output

(zerohedge)

Russian Mercenaries Have Entered Libya’s Largest Oil Field To Block Output

Despite that Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s year-long offensive to take the capital was recently was defeated and ultimately pushed back, his Libyan National Army (LNA) still controls most of the country’s major oil fields.

The Benghazi-based commander has for years secured all oil fields especially in the eastern half of the country, even as Libya’s official National Oil Corporation (NOC) is based in Tripoli and operates under the aegis of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).

Haftar has long used this “oil weapon” by threatening to impose a total blockade on exports. Recall that in late January and into February of this year he did just that, declaring a “catastrophic” blockade of oil fields taking output down to almost zero in order to starve Tripoli and the NOC of vital state revenues, which has continued to now.

 

Oil production makes up over 90% of Libya’s national revenue, via Reuters.

With his dream of seizing Tripoli dashed, thanks in no small part to Turkey’s providing significant military support to the GNA, the oil blockade appears to in force more severely than ever, but this time reportedly with Russian help.

Since last year it’s been widely reported that Russian mercenary firm, the Kremlin-based Wagner Group, is embedded with pro-Haftar forces. But this latest development via Reuters on Friday will certainly raise eyebrows in Europe and Washington. The NOC is now charging that Russia is meddling in its domestic production:

Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Friday Russian and other foreign mercenaries had entered the Sharara oilfield on Thursday to block the resumption of energy exports after a months-long blockade by eastern-based forces.

Most of Libya’s main oilfields are under the control of the eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA), which has fought alongside Russian mercenaries according to the United Nations.

This after the NOC tried to restart production at Sharara earlier this month following pro-Tripoli forces pushing the LNA back from the outskirts of the capital, which witnessed fierce fighting for months.

 

AP image

“While foreign mercenaries continue to be paid vast sums of money to prevent the NOC from carrying out its essential duties, the rest of the Libyan population suffers,” corporation chairman, Mustafa Sanalla said.

He called the loss in revenue, which most reports starting months ago estimated at $6 billion as leading to the “disastrous decay of our oil infrastructure.”

Kremlin-based Wagner Group security contractors have long been reported on the ground in Syria supporting Assad, and more recently – since last year – even in Libya supporting pro-Haftar forces.

 

Wagner Group contractors previously photographed in Syria.

Oil stoppage has military implications on the ground, given the GNA’s national army relies on the country’s oil revenue to purchase weapons via Tripoli’s central bank.

It remains further that oil exports make up over 90% of Libya’s national revenue, and again Haftar has long held the majority of the nation’s oil fields. Trump a year ago even personally “thanked” Haftar for “securing Libya’s oil” amid a lawless war-torn situation. 

Since then US policy vis-a-vis Haftar has been confused and unclear, with moments of Washington coming close to expressing outright support, while it remains that US officially and formally recognizes the Tripoli GNA under PM Fayez Mustafa al-Sarraj.

end

 

6.Global Issues

Seems that we were right all along.  We have a new study that amazingly is disturbingly parallel to HIV.  It can cause the depletion of important market immune cells and thus paralyze the immune system especially in older people.  Interestingly enough, these killer T cells become confused and basically non effective causing a “cyto storm”.  The killer T cells produced by the thymus glad are much more efficient in children and thus the reason that young children are not effected as older people.

(zerohedge)

 

“Disturbing Parallel To HIV”: COVID-19 Can Cause Depletion Of Important Immune Cells, NY Times Admits

Once again, it looks as though what was once being peddled as Covid-19 “conspiracy theory” on our site appears to have turned out to have been accurate news reported months before the mainstream media. Go figure.

As far back as February 1, 2020, when the pandemic was only starting to attract attention and the China-influenced mainstream media was politically inclined to minimize the severity of the disease before pulling a sharp U-turn and now going full bore with a narrative of just how dangerous it is to reopen the economy, we published an article referencing an Arxiv pre-print which found that the Covid-19 genome contained “HIV Insertions”, stoking fears that the virus was an artificially created bioweapon.

While the mere suggestion that this virus was man-made – nevermind sharing discrete segments of its genetic structure with HIV – sparked outrage among the well-paid mercenary enforcers of the First Amendment known as “fact-checkers” who are employed by such biased organizations as Twitter and Facebook to stifle any line of inquiry that runs contrary to whatever dominant narrative has been blessed by the Zuckerbergs and Dorseys of the world, it was none other than the man who discovered the HIV virus back in 1983, that confirmed our suspicions saying that “the virus was man-made.”

We then reported in April that Professor Luc Montagnier, the 2008 Nobel Prize winner for Medicine, claimed that SARS-CoV-2 is a manipulated virus that was accidentally released from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, and added thatthe Wuhan laboratory, known for its work on coronaviruses, tried to use one of these viruses as a vector for HIV in the search for an AIDS vaccine.

This is the same conclusion we explored months before the mainstream media when we suggested that COVID-19 may have emerged from a lab in Wuhan instead of being man-made. For being early in what is increasingly looking like a very accurate assertion, a Buzzfeed journalist wrote a hit-piece about Zero Hedge that resulted in us being banned from Twitter.

But here we stand, months later. We have since been reinstated on Twitter and the journalist in question has been  fired for plagiarism after BuzzFeed‘s new editor-in-chief, Mark Schoofs, published “A Note To Our Readers” detailing eleven instances where he lifted content from other publications without attribution going back to 2013, including his hit-piece against Zero Hedge.

Our lab origin “conspiracy theory” has gained widespread support and is the focus of several international investigations into the CCP lab. And just this week, we found out that and the HIV link that we first reported on months ago, and followed up on last month, continues to only get stronger.

As the mainstream media desperately plays catch-up, The New York Times released a piece yesterday called “How the Coronavirus Short-Circuits the Immune System” and said that “In a disturbing parallel to H.I.V., the coronavirus can cause a depletion of important immune cells, recent studies found.”

“Now researchers have discovered yet another unpleasant surprise. In many patients hospitalized with the coronavirus, the immune system is threatened by a depletion of certain essential cells, suggesting eerie parallels with H.I.V.,” the article says.

The assertions could explain why few kids get sick and why a “cocktail” of treatments may be needed to bring the coronavirus under control, similar to how H.I.V. is treated.

Dr. John Wherry, an immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania said that research now points to “very complex immunological signatures of the virus.” The NY Times wrote:

In May, Dr. Wherry and his colleagues posted online a paper showing a range of immune system defects in severely ill patients, including a loss of virus-fighting T cells in parts of the body.

In a separate study, the investigators identified three patterns of immune defects, and concluded that T cells and B cells, which help orchestrate the immune response, were inactive in roughly 30 percent of the 71 Covid-19 patients they examined. None of the papers have yet been published or peer reviewed.

Researchers in China have reported a similar depletion of T cells in critically ill patients, Dr. Wherry noted. But the emerging data could be difficult to interpret, he said — “like a Rorschach test.”

“It is hard to separate the effects of simply being critically ill and in an I.C.U., which can cause havoc on your immune system,” Wherry continued.

The researchers found that the immune system could actually become impaired because it overreacts to the virus, as happens in sepsis patients. They found that in Covid-19 patients, there was a marked increase in a molecule called IP10, which sends T cells to where they are needed in the body. Patients with coronavirus, as well as SARS and MERS, see a level of IP10 molecules that go up and stay up, which can create “chaotic signaling” in the body.

Dr. Adrian Hayday, an immunologist at King’s College London said: “It’s like Usain Bolt hearing the starting gun and starting to run. Then someone keeps firing the starting gun over and over. What would he do? He’d stop, confused and disoriented.”

This causes some T-cells, usually prepared to destroy the virus, to become confused and act “abberrantly”. Recovery becomes tougher for those over 40 because the thymus gland, which is responsible for creating new T-cells, becomes less efficient. In kids, the thymus glad works much better.

An overreaction of the immune system, causing things like a cytokine storm, may also be able to be treated by blocking a molecule called ID6, which helps organize immune cells.

“There clearly are some patients where IL-6 is elevated, and so suppressing it may help. But the core goal should be to restore and resurrect the immune system, not suppress it,” Hayday said.

Hayday believes an antiviral treatment may make the most sense, given the newfound information: “I have not lost one ounce of my optimism. A vaccine would be great. But with the logistics of its global rollout being so challenging, it’s comforting to think we may not depend on one.”

Recall, we had previously written that the South China Morning Post reported a study by Chinese scientists found that the novel coronavirus uses the same strategy to evade attack from the human immune system as HIV. Specifically, both viruses remove marker molecules on the surface of an infected cell that are used by the immune system to identify invaders, we noted.

The researchers warned that this commonality could mean Sars-CoV-2, the clinical name for the virus, could be around for some time, like HIV.

We wrote in May:

And here is where things gets very messy for the frauds known as “fact-checkers” who – without any actual facts or knowledge – threw up all over our February report that the coronavirus shared genetic material with HIV: while the mainstream media did everything in its power to censor any suggestions that Covid and HIV having genetic similarities (after all who wants to be threatened by an airborne version of AIDS) now it is none other than the South China Morning Post which writes that “earlier studies found the spike protein of the new coronavirus had a structure that allowed it to enter many types of human cells and bind with them. The same structure was also found in HIV, but not in other coronaviruses found in animals such as bats and pangolins.”

At this point, the New York Times and the SCMP appear to have pointed out all the exact same facts – that the coronavirus not only shares genetic material with HIV, but also evades and cripples the immune system in a similar way to HIV – that got the “highly respected” StatNews to accuse Zero Hedge of spreading an “infodemic.”

As we said last month:

“We wonder if StatNews author John Gregory will append his “analysis” now that actual “facts” have emerged showing that it’s not the infodemic we should be afraid of, but the censordemic.”

END
Gilead will charge greater that $3,000 usa for a course treatment..which does not work so good.  Favipiravir works much better and will be much cheaper
(zerohedge)

Gilead Will Charge More Than $3,000 For A Course Of COVID-19 Drug Remdesivir

All those stories about patients being billed for tens of thousands of dollars for coronavirus-related care elicited promises from the White House that “everything will be covered”. Still, as thousands of Americans complain about charges related to COVID-19 testing and care being passed on by their insurance companies, Gilead, the pharmaceutical company that has pushed remdesivir down the world’s throat despite the fact that the cheap steroid dexamethasone has proven – in at least one high quality study – more effective at lowering mortality rates, has just published its expected pricetag for a five-dose course of the drug.

On Monday, Gilead disclosed its pricing plan for Gilead as it prepares to begin charging for the drug at the beginning of next month (several international governments have already placed orders).  Given the high demand, thanks in part due to the breathless media coverage despite the drug’s still-questionable study data, Gilead apparently feels justified in charging $3,120 for a patient getting the shorter, more common, treatment course, and $5,720 for the longer course for more seriously ill patients. These are the prices for patients with commercial insurance in the US, according to Gilead’s official pricing plan.

As per usual, the price charged to those on government plans will be lower, and hospitals will also receive a slight discount. Additionally, the US is the only developed country where Gilead will charge two prices, according to Gilead CEO Daniel O’Day. In much of Europe and Canada, governments negotiate drug prices directly with drugmakers (in the US, laws dictate that drug makers must “discount” their drugs for medicare and medicaid plans).

But according to O’Day, the drug is priced “far below the value it brings” to the health-care system.

However, we’d argue that this actually isn’t true. Remdesivir was developed by Gilead to treat Ebola, but the drug was never approved by the FDA for this use, which caused Gilead to shelve the drug until COVID-19 presented another opportunity. Even before the first study had finished, the company was already pushing propaganda about the promising nature of the drug. Meanwhile, the CDC, WHO and other organizations were raising doubts about the effectiveness of steroid medications.

Months later, the only study on the steroid dexamethasone, a cheap steroid that costs less than $50 for a 100-dose regimen, has shown that dexomethasone is the only drug so far that has proven effective at lowering COVID-19 related mortality. Remdesivir, despite the fact that it has been tested in several high quality trials, has not.

So, why is the American government in partnership with Gilead still pushing this questionable, and staggeringly expensive, medication on the public?

end
Michael Every…
the weekends major stories…
(courtesy Michael Every..

Can The Trillions Keep Ahead Of The Millions?

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

10 million. That’s now the global total of virus infections. Less than a week ago it was 9 million. Deaths are over 500,000. In the US, Texas and Arizona have banned bar drinking as Covid surges in the sunbelt, and 5.3% of NBA players tested are coming back positive as a worrying benchmark; in the UK, Leicester faces a new local lockdown, and one of the government’s scientific advisors says things nationally are on a “knife edge” with a spike in new infections expected by July; Germany has reportedly put in place internal quarantine for domestic travellers in Bavaria; Australia has seen a breakout in Victoria that might mean a new lockdown there; Brazil just had its worst week yet with 259,105 new cases; the New Delhi healthcare system is reported as on the brink of collapse; and as schools get ready to reopen in Europe after the summer, note that Israel –which liked to think it had beaten the virus– is officially now at the start of a second Covid wave (and soon, it sees, lockdown) being blamed on the hasty reopening of schools, which appear to have acted as a major transmission mechanism.

There are people out there still saying that this is not serious, especially in economies that desperately want to open up, or which still refuse to lock own. They point to lower hospitalisation rates and death rates with this second spike than with the first. That is true, but let’s wait a few weeks and see if they follow with a lag once hospitals are overloaded. Moreover, scientists increasingly report that even moderate Covid cases can mean permanent damage to lungs, nerves, the heart, and the pancreas, potentially causing diabetes. So “Happy Monday”…and that’s before we consider other news.

US-China decoupling continues apace. Late last week we saw suggestions from China that US interference via sanctions, especially over Hong Kong, would be a red line that might see Beijing walk away from the US-China trade deal. Tomorrow we will see the national security law for Hong Kong passed in Beijing, and it appears it will include life imprisonment for breaking it. Indeed, the sole pro-Beijing Hong Kong representative working on the bill has openly lobbied for the law to have more than the proposed ten-year penalty –which appears to have been successful– and for it to be retroactive. It is hard to see the current China hawks in the US Congress remaining silent if such a red line is crossed on Tuesday.

It is not like we are short of other US-China decoupling stories anyway: they are spreading like the virus. Even China considering allowing its giant commercial banks to develop into US-style investment banks can be seen as bad news when one wonders exactly what future market share Beijing can then dangle to the Wall Street firms it uses as political counterweights to China hawks.

In other geopolitics the picture is also messy. The India-China border stand-off is far from over, with both sides building up their forces and the Global Times tweeting: “If #India wants to take advantage of US support in border dispute with #China, it is terribly mistaken, as the Chinese PLA is fully prepared & capable of defending on multiple fronts including China-India border, South China Sea and Taiwan Straits: analysts” (How is that trade deal looking again?) In the Middle East we have a major explosion in Iran and potentially explosive Israeli actions from as soon as 1 July, while Egypt is serious about intervention in Libya that would see it facing off against Turkey. In Europe, the US continues to press ahead with plans to move troops from Germany to Poland, which will inflame Germans, Russians, and much of the US establishment alike.

Which is already inflamed by allegations US President Trump has allowed Russia to pay a bonus to those who kill US troops in Afghanistan. Trump claims he had not been presented with this information, and that it is not credible. Is Vladimir Putin deliberately trying to weaken a president whom the New York Times, which published this story, likes to repeatedly claim is a close friend of Moscow? The allegations are literally explosive. The lack of market reaction is partly due to a generalised liquidity anaesthesia, and partly due to little expectation that the US will act on it (other than by say moving troops to Poland in violation of long-held understandings with Moscow); and perhaps partly because the story can be seen as a replay of #Russiagate (i.e., domestic US politics)?

In domestic politics the picture is equally messy. The US is still wracked with protests; French President Macron’s party was handily defeated in mayoral elections in Paris and other major cities by the Green Party, and in the south the far-right National Rally did well; Poland’s incumbent President Duda won the first round of elections with 41.8% of votes, and the outcome of the second round on 12 July vs. the pro-EU and liberal Warsaw mayor Trzaskowski will decide whether the country continues to lean firmly towards conservatism populism or not; and in Australia, an MP is being investigated over allegations his office was infiltrated by Chinese intelligence..

On the economy, the one number so far today was Chinese industrial profits, which were up 6.0% y/y in May. How this is possible when exports are not up and neither is domestic demand, while the Chinese Beige Book says the entire economy remained in recession in Q2, is a good question. To which the answer will be “Look, China! Look, 6%!” The PBOC keeps underlining that it is there to provide ever-more credit to the economy, even as CNY will be kept simultaneously stable. That’s why 10-year Chinese bond yields are at 2.87%, over 220bp above the US.

Can the trillions keep ahead of the millions? That’s the key dynamic.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

BRAZIL/COFFEE

the Pandemic is certainly having its effect on coffee which is now at 15 year lows

(zerohedge)

Pandemic Crushes Coffee Futures To Near 15-Year Low

Coffee fundamentals indicate deteriorating demand and oversupplied conditions could soon pressure prices to 15-year lows.

global surplus of 3.5 million bags is expected in 2020-21 as Brazil expects a record crop after a lower yield in 2019. To some degree, this had been anticipated by the market.

Adding to concerns about a bulging supply imbalance, the Brazilian real has dropped 5% in the last few weeks versus the U.S. dollar. Coffee farmers in Brazil who fear continued real weakness are incented to deliver more and more coffee for export, even at the current low prices.

Expectations for demand growth, the one positive variable that had supported price increases, have been dialed back in light of the global pandemic. Recent data from the International Coffee Organization revealed global arabica coffee exports of 82.75 million bags in 2019, a six percent increase over 2018, and growth had been expected to continue in 2020 until lockdowns tempered the optimism. – a Charles Schwab commodity report said, seen by FXStreet

Now knowing the bearish fundamental backdrop, Reuters Commodity Desk forecasts a significant downward wave (c) ” that could result in coffee prices reaching $0.6380 per lb in the first half of 2021. 

New York coffee may seek a support zone of $0.8760-$0.9110 per lb next quarter, to stay around this range or bounce moderately towards $1.08 before dropping again.

The support at $0.9110 is provided by the 76.4% projection level of a downward wave (c) from $1.7955. This wave is capable of traveling to $0.6380.

However, the support triggered a decent bounce in May 2019, which lasted until December 2019. This barrier is likely to cause another weaker bounce.

It must be noted that the calculated projection levels are not perfect. There might be a brief piercing below $0.9110. The expected bounce may not occur until coffee finds a lower support at $0.8760, the May 2019 low.

Probably, the second bounce will be limited to $1.08. Based on this outlook, coffee may be mostly rangebound between $0.8760 and $1.08 in the third quarter. A fall below $0.8760 could be extended into the range of $0.6380-$0.7955.

A detailed study on the daily chart reveals the progress of a downward wave C from $1.2905, which may eventually travel to $0.8615, its 100% projection level, very close to $0.8760.

Resistance is at $1.0255, a break above which could suggest an earlier-than-expected development of the bounce towards $1.08.

– Reuters Commodity Desk

Virus pandemic crushing demand, oversupplied conditions, and no V-shaped global economic rebound has likely resulted in the great coffee bust of the early 2020s

end

ZIMBABWE

What else could go wrong with this basket case of a currency..

(zerohedge)

Zimbabwe Shutters Stock Exchange, Blocks All Mobile Money Payments As Currency Collapses (Again)

For the fifth time in Zimbabwe’s history, its currency has just collapsed…

As Decrypt.co’s Adriana Hamacher reportsZimbabwe’s government suspended all mobile money payments, including operations by dominant provider Ecocash on Friday. The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange was also ordered to stop trading, in a dramatic escalation of the nation’s currency crisis.

The government claims the move is to avert a conspiracy to sabotage the collapsing Zimbabwe dollar. But millions of Zimbabweans rely on digital payment operators because obtaining physical cash is so difficult. Ecocash is also commonly used to buy Bitcoin.

In response, Ecocash has promised to defy the ban. It maintains that only Zimbabwe’s central bank can order it to stop trading. Meanwhile, African crypto news outlet Bitcoinke claims “the demand for Bitcoin has skyrocketed” in the wake of the suspension—its sources claim the cryptocurrency is selling at 18% above the market rate.

A national currency, the Zimbabwe dollar or Zimdollar, was reintroduced in 2019, replacing a basket of national currencies including the Japanese Yen, the US dollar and pound sterling. To force citizens to leave the previous system, the government banned the domestic use of foreign currencies. But – with the government mired in corruption scandals – it swiftly lost ground to the US dollar. This is the fifth time in Zimbabwe’s history that its national currency has collapsed. 

Meanwhile, inflation has risen above 750%.

The local stock market has surged, as investors sought safe havens.

[ZH: Look how well the Zimbabwe ‘economy’ must be doing?]

But trading has now been suspended:

Following the statement issued by the Secretary for Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services on June 26 2020, the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange Limited engaged both the Securities and Exchange Commission of Zimbabwe (SECZ) and the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development.

Whilst we await the guidance from our regulators on the operational modalities going forward, we notify our stakeholders that trading has been suspended until further notice.

For any enquiries, you can email info@zse.co.zw.

For and behalf of Zimbabwe Stock Exchange Limited.

ZSE CEO – Justin Bgoni

The government claims mobile payment operators and the stock exchange are either deliberately or inadvertently acting to sabotage the economy, and are the cause of the Zimdollar’s volatile black market exchange rate. 

Ecocash denies any wrongdoing.

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1276 UP .0070 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC// /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.24 UP 0.159 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2310   UP   0.0002  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3656 DOWN .0013 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 18.03 POINTS OR 0.61% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 248.71 POINTS OR 1.01%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1,60%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 248.71 POINTS OR 1.01%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 18.03 POINTS OR 0.61%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  1.60% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 517.04  POINTS OR 2.30%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1771.10

silver:$17.87-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.64% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.38 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 97.17 DOWN 26 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.47% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +02%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.46%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,29 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 83 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.47% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.76% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1238  UP     .0033 or 33 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.70 UP .613 OR YEN DOWN 61  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2283 DOWN .0026 POUND DOWN 26  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 18 basis points to 1.3687

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0811    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  67.0779  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.8554 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 0.64 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.39 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.55 UP 9  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 66.47 1.08%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 142.73 POINTS OR 1.18%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 35.82 POINTS 0.73%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 99.70 POINTS or 1.35%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 322.66 POINTS OR 1.69%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 39.25 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 41.45 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    70.31  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.52 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 52 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.47 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  39.52//

 

 

BRENT :  41.42

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.64..down 1 basis point…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.39..up 2 two basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1234 ( UP 30  BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.65 UP  .566 (YEN DOWN 57 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.53 UP 10 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2289 DOWN 19  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.850

 

 

the Russian rouble 70.15   DOWN 0.37 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3683 DOWN 13 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.47%

 

The Dow closed UP 579.50 POINTS OR 2.32%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 116.93 POINTS OR 1.20%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  33.27 CLOSED DOWN 1.46

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.307%//libor dropping like a stone

LIBOR/OIS:  .2359%

TED SPREAD (3 MONTH TREASURY YIELD VS LIBOR) =  .160%

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bonds, Stocks, Dollar, & Gold All Bid As COVID Chaos Continues

Stocks up, Bonds up, Dollar up, Gold up, Bitcoin up… COVID-cases Up…

Increasingly fear-stoking headlines over the weekend on the virus (and more and more cost-cutting corporates quitting Facebook ads) prompted a weak open on Sunday night for US futures and while Nasdaq trod water around unch until the open, Small Caps were mysteriously bid. The open sparked selling which was immediately bid with Small Caps again massively outperforming… (nasdaq lagged the rest on the day). Kudlow excited everyone at the close with “v-shaped recovery” comments but the Dow did well thanks to BA and AAPL (+200 points between them)…

Small Caps were ramped above Friday highs to the edge of the cliff on Thursday before fading…

But the entire stock market move was ignored by bonds…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG stocks opened down notably (FB under pressure), but dip-buyers stepped in quickly…

Source: Bloomberg

TSLA traded back above $1000 on the heels of a Musk tweet

Despite the yield curve steepening, financials underperformed the market today…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed today with the long-end underperforming and the belly best…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar managed another modest gain erasing almost all the losses for June…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin chopped around over the weekend, testing down below $9000 before bouncing back…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all higher with oil best despite the dollar gains…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI failed to get back to $40..

Silver bounced off $18 three times today…

 

And ETFs backed by gold haven’t seen a surge in demand like this quarter’s since the world was reeling from the financial crisis.

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note Nomura’s Charlie McElligott’s warnings over the ‘excitement’ at recent “positive” revisions in earnings sentiment.

Recall that perversely, “NEGATIVE revisions” in earnings are a bullish signal for forward returns (+2.3% in SPX with 72% hit-rate over 6w of earnings season), while “POSITIVE revisions” are actually a local “negative” signal for Equities over the same “6w of earnings” window (-0.1% SPX with just a 47% “higher” hit-rate).

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Nasdaq Tumbles Into Red At Open, S&P Breaks Below Key Technical Level

After opening down hard last night, futures went on the standard buying rampage overnight, only to plunge back lower at the cash market open…

S&P and Nasdaq are red from Friday’s close now, and the squeeze in small caps is unwinding fast…

 

Slapping the S&P 500 back below its 200DMA…

 

Don’t forget, buy the overnight, sell the day…

 

Bonds are flat for now.

then:

Small Caps Lead Sudden Buying-Panic In Stocks

Sometimes you just have to laugh…

We suspect this run may be about to lose its steam…

Totally decoupled from bonds…

 

Trade accordingly.

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

US Pending Home Sales Explode By Record In May… Back To 2001 Levels

New home sales soared and existing home sales plunged, leaving pending home sales as the tie-breaker for May’s picture of the US housing market. After crashing by over 20% MoM in both March and April, analysts expected a 19.3% rebound MoM in May but instead it exploded by a record 44.3% MoM…but pending home sales remain down 10.4% YoY

Source: Bloomberg

Pending sales represents signed contracts in the month of May, when mortgage rates had collapsed.

“This has been a spectacular recovery for contract signings, and goes to show the resiliency of American consumers and their evergreen desire for homeownership,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

“This bounce back also speaks to how the housing sector could lead the way for a broader economic recovery.”

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Breakdown:

The month of May saw each of the four regional indices rise on a month-over-month basis after all were down in April 2020.

  • The Northeast PHSI grew 44.4% to 61.5 in May, although it was still down 33.2% from a year ago.
  • In the Midwest, the index rose 37.2% to 98.8 last month, down 1.4% from May 2019.
  • Pending home sales in the South increased 43.3% to an index of 125.5 in May, up 1.9% from May 2019.
  • The index in the West jumped 56.2% in May to 89.2, down 2.5% from a year ago.

NAR now expects existing-home sales to reach 4.93 million units in 2020 and new home sales to hit 690,000.

“All figures light up in 2021 with positive GDP, employment, housing starts and home sales.

More listings are continuously appearing as the economy reopens, helping with inventory choices,” Yun said.

However we note that despite the record rebound, the pending home sales index remains below 2001 levels…

Yun noted rather optimistically, that in 2021, sales are forecast to rise to 5.35 million units for existing homes and 800,000 for new homes.

The outlook has significantly improved, as new home sales are expected to be higher this year than last, and annual existing-home sales are now projected to be down by less than 10% – even after missing the spring buying season due to the pandemic lockdown,” Yun said.

There’s still 20-plus million more unemployed Americans! What’s that old saying about it being difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Commercial real estate in the USA accelerates

(zerohedge)

V-Shaped Narrative Dies As Commercial Real Estate Bust Accelerates

With that being said – the V-shaped recovery narrative is imploding – as many on Wall Street indiscriminately bought stocks (some used picking Scrabble letters to buy) as their belief in the Federal Reserve’s money-printing would lift the economy out of one of the worst downturns since the 1930s.

Though the economy was never lifted in a V-shaped formation, instead, the stock market rose to new highs as wreckless financial speculation led to an army of Robinhood daytraders buying bankrupted companies.

With the euphoric period likely behind us, notably, because the Fed’s balance sheet has contracted over the last several weeks and virus cases across the country are soaring – we now turn our attention to the commercial real estate bust.

During euphoric periods, like what’s happened over the last several months in financial markets, the bad news is usually overpowered with happy stories (sometimes from Larry Kudlow) – but as sentiment shifts – we must not lose track of the instabilities that can wreck the financial system.

Bloomberg cites a new report via real estate research firm Savills, which details how the Manhattan commercial real estate industry could be headed for a prolonged downturn if there’s no V-shaped recovery in the economy.

The report says Manhattan’s office rents are likely headed to their lowest levels since 2012, that is if the economy doesn’t have a speedy recovery. That means asking rents could drop by 26% to about $62.47 a square foot, the real estate services firm said.

A speedy recovery or not – the trend in corporate America is to work from home – companies have found ways to implement remote access for employees – and this trend will only gain momentum.

That being said, the office market in New York City is headed for a serious bust – with recovery years away.

“Many assume that when the stay-at-home measures are lifted, there will still be Covid-19 fears that will continue to materially influence behaviors and the economy,” Savills said. “These fears will likely remain until a vaccine or antibody therapy is developed and widely available, which experts currently estimate is at least 12 months away.”

It’s not just the office market that is in trouble – we noted this week that one-third of hotels in the city could go bankrupt.

The cracks in commercial real estate have already emerged, in early June, there was a massive jump in CMBS delinquencies, suggesting the bust has only begun.

For more clarity on the recovery timeframes – UCLA Anderson Forecast’s latest report suggests 2023.

END
CORONAVIRUS/USA/UPDATE//SATURDAY

Florida, Arizona, Nevada Kick Off Weekend By Reporting Record Jump In Daily COVID-19 Infections: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Cali reports 3% jump
  • Nevada reports record jump
  • UK reports 100 new deaths
  • Italy sees numbers continue to improve
  • Egypt continues with reopening
  • 16 NBA players test positive
  • Hospitalization capacity
  • Florida, Arizona see record jumps
  • Florida sees 2nd straight record jump
  • US reports 3rd straight record increase (45,942 cases)
  • Miami mayor closes beaches
  • Indonesia reports another record jump

* * *

Update (1334ET): Though it’s not a record jump, California has reported another day over day increase.

  • CALIFORNIA COVID-19 CASES RISE 3% VS 2.8% 7-DAY AVERAGE

* * *

Update (1315ET): States from New Jersey to Nevada have just reported their latest coronavirus numbers.

One day after imposing a statewide mandatory mask mandate…

…Nevada has reported a record jump in new coronavirus cases that is more than double the last daily figures.

New Jersey, meanwhile, reported 347 new cases, lower than yesterday’s number, however…

…the number of new cases has continued to creep higher as Gov Murphy has warned about the state’s “R” rate, which measures the number of people infected on average by each carrier, a representation of how quickly the virus is spreading. “R” rates above 1 means the virus is spreading; below 1 means the outbreak is waning.

Meanwhile, Pakistan reported 3,138 new cases of coronavirus and 74 new deaths as ten members of the national cricket team were confirmed to be infected. Pakistan now has a total of 198,883 cases and 4,035 deaths. Indonesia reported 1,385 new cases of coronavirus, bringing its total to 52,812 cases in total, in what was Indonesia’s latest record jump.

Back in the states, some are already pushing New York to delay the return of “indoor” restaurant service.

Meanwhile, though numbers in Europe have ticked higher, Italy is still seeing numbers shrink.

Egypt, meanwhile, has started reopening cafes, clubs, gyms and theaters along with lifting and easing other lockdown-related measures, after more than three months of closure, even as the number of infections continues to climb.

In sports news, as the MLB prepares to kick off a shortened season, 16 NBA players in the US have tested positive for the new coronavirus in the first wave of mandatory tests as the league restart approaches.

As of 1pmET, more than 9.7 million people around the world have tested positive for COVID-19, while roughly 4.9 million have recovered, and 493,000 have died, according to Johns Hopkins University. At this rate, the world should surpass half a million infections and 10 million cases by the middle of next week.

Peru, one of South America’s worst-hit countries, will lift coronavirus lockdown measures in a large swath of the country, including the capital, Lima, beginning next month.

The UK death toll increased by just 100 per data released Saturday, bringing its total to 43,514, as one of Europe’s deadliest outbreaks continues to slow.

As Germany takes the reins of the EU presidency, Chancellor Angela Merkel cautioned that the coronavirus pandemic is far from over, as more regional clusters stir up fears of a second wave. Merkel said in her weekly video podcast that getting Europe’s economy back on track is her No. 1 goal as Germany takes over the rotating European Union. She added that all Europeans share “joint responsibility” to wear masks etc.

* * *

Update (1205ET): As we’ve noted, deaths across even the most hard-hit cases like Florida and Texas have continued to decline amid the latest surge in infections, as officials see the median age of those infected drop by a decade or more.

But as a team of JPM analysts noted in a note to clients, hospital capacity across the US isn’t actually as stretched as it was during the early weeks of the outbreak – before it hit its “peak” in NYC and the surrounding area – as hospital managers in Houston have assured the public that they have plenty of overflow capacity to bring online.

To be sure, left wing conspiracy theorists like Rachel Maddow have reported that people are dying in the halls of Arizona’s hospitals, a laughable farce, to be sure. One official from Arizona Children’s Hospital claimed that the state’s health-care system could be overwhelmed by the beginning of July (ie next week).

As the data, packaged here by JPM analysts, clearly shows, no state is seeing capacity stretched to extremes – at least not yet.

* * *

Update (1145ET): Arizona just reported its daily figures for Saturday (remember, these data are reported with a 24-hour delay). After a brief respite from record numbers, the state reported a record jump of 3,591 cases, which is bang-on tied with the last record number from June 23, though it’s slightly lower in percentage-point terms.

  • ARIZONA DAILY VIRUS CASES JUMP 5.4%, BY A RECORD 3,591
  • ARIZONA CORONAVIRUS CASES RISE BY 3,591 ON SATURDAY, TIED WITH JUNE 23 FOR BIGGEST DAILY INCREASE SINCE PANDEMIC STARTED – STATE HEALTH DEPT

The number of new infections have continued to climb since Trump’s rally in Phoenix on Tuesday, though numbers were trending higher before that. New cases are climbing in 33 states, but 16, including Arizona, have seen consistent and troubling growth beyond what increases in testing would lead one to expect. The State’s governor has pleaded with Arizonans to stay home and wear masks,

* * *

As we noted last night, the US recorded a third record jump in new COVID-19 cases, with 45,942 cases reported, helped along by a staggering ~9k print out of Florida and thousands of new cases in California, Texas and Arizona. Florida’s latest numbers have been so sever, that they finally pushed Gov Ron DeSantis to shut down bars in the state, following the lead of Texas Gov Greg Abbott. Following his decision to roll back some of the lockdown easing, Abbott said last night that if he could have done one thing differently, he wouldn’t have reopened the bars so quickly.

“f I could go back and redo anything, it probably would have been to slow down the opening of bars…” Abbott said during an interview with the local Texas press Friday evening. He added that the bar setting “in reality, just doesn’t work with a pandemic…”

Dr. Fauci joined the chorus of experts warning that it’s only a matter of time before deaths start increase in line with the new case totals. But on Friday, the 7-day national average for daily deaths reported continued to decline day over day.

DeSantis, on the other hand, drew the ire of Bloomberg and the increasingly-critical mainstream press after he snapped at a reporter. When asked if he would have done anything differently, he defiantly responded “like what?” That…probably wasn’t the best reaction from an optics standpoint, especially now that his state has kicked off the weekend with another record jump in new cases, suggesting that the US might be on track for a fourth-straight record jump as the outbreak in 16 states mostly along the American sun belt (encompassing most of the south and west) worsens.

Florida reported 9,585 new coronavirus cases, another 7.8% increase (in line with the percentage increase seen in the last few days). That’s compared with 8,942 cases reported yesterday. It was the second record jump in a row for the state. In just over a week, the state has reported ~40,000 new cases, or roughly 1/3rd of the statewide total since the pandemic began.

Florida’s new state totals include:

  • 132,545 cases
  • 14,136 Floridians hospitalized
  • 3,390 deaths of Florida residents

Testing continued to climb across the US, even as the number of new confirmed cases far outpaced the increase in testing, as even VP Mike Pence acknowledged last night.

The percentage of positive tests, a new critical metric that is being closely followed by investors and epidemiologists alike, has continued to climb in many of the hardest-hit states.

South Florida, particularly Miami-Dade County, remains the worst-hit part of the state, reporting roughly a quarter of the statewide total.

Source: FLA Dept of Health

Hours after Gov DeSantis ordered bars closed, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez announced late Friday that he would shut the city’s most popular beaches for the Independence Day holiday weekend, probably the most aggressive step, economically speaking, as the weekend is typically a busy one during an otherwise slow summer season.

Gimenez said in a statement that the five-days suspension starting July 3 would be extended “if conditions do not improve.”

Internationally, Brazil and Latin American continue to contribute more to the global total as the great rebound continues. Even Europe saw cases rise for the second straight week as easing lockdowns have led some local officials to reinstate strict social distancing rules and even lockdowns. Though, per capita, Arizona alone is still outpacing every European country, including Italy, Spain and the UK.

END
CORONAVIRUS/USA/SECOND WAVE FEARED..
Thousands of Americans seems to have infected due to the BLM protests.
(zerohedge)

It’s Not Just Red States – Philadelphia, San Francisco Fear ‘Second Wave’ As Thousands Infected At BLM Protests

As Andrew Cuomo urges everyone who attended protests in the state to get tested, officials in California, in the Bay Area and LA County and the surrounding area, have warned that the protests over George Floyd’s death have contributed to the increase in daily confirmed infection totals seen in recent weeks.

Now, less than a day after San Francisco mayor said she would put plans to ease more restrictions Monday on hold following a concerning uptick in new infections, Philadelphia city officials on Saturday have just warned that they are considering a similar delay, which would postpone the move into the “green phase” of the city’s reopening, CBS News reports.

Though the state of PA reported just 600 new cases on Friday, the mayor of Philadelphia announced yesterday that he would require masks to be worn inside all public buildings, and during large crowds when outside. This comes as Philadelphia, and the surrounding area like Montgomery County…

…are seeing a concentration of new cases.

“Today, we will be issuing a mandatory mask order for the City of Philadelphia,” Farley said. “There will be limited exceptions, such as an exception for children under the age of 8.”

It’s an effort to curb what the health commissioner calls a second wave of COVID-19. But why would this city even be worried about a second wave, if it weren’t for the protests that rocked the city for two weeks straight.

After weeks of progress and lowering numbers, there’s an uptick in cases, which is not related to the increased testing, but to young people – including a surprising number of teenagers – attending “social events”.

“We have noticed in particular, a spike in cases among teenagers between the ages of 16 to 19 that appear to be from them attending social events,” Farley said.

We wonder: Which “events” is he referring to? We suspect most of them haven’t been attending graduation parties.

Even (hopefully nonpartisan) health care officials have warned that they’re “really concerned” about the situation in the city of Brotherly Love.

“We’re really concerned,” said Dr. Deborah Pierce, with the Einstein Healthcare Network. She said the emergency department at Einstein has been seeing evidence of a second wave, “evidence” which has somehow eluded the attention of the press.

Twentysomethings and thirtysomethings likely aren’t going to bars – at least not in Philadelphia. So where are they getting sick?

“Patients that are in their 20s and even younger than that, and that’s a huge concern because that’s a population that everybody thought was somewhat protected and now we’re seeing those patients with more and more symptoms, not just asymptotic disease,” Pierce said.
Doctors say spikes in cases around the country, that now includes Pennsylvania, are mainly among younger people.

There only seems to be one feasible explanation.

Even the NYT’s Nate Silver apparently felt obligated to point out that ‘blue’ states haven’t been as universally effective at combating the virus.

It’s almost as if allowing large crowds of people to gather night after night in violation of social distancing restrictions might have helped contribute to this ‘second wave’ that we’re seeing unfold across the US.

END
The real truth behind the feamongering with respect to hospitalizations in Houston..Not many are in the iCU
(zerohedge)

Houston Hospital Boss Shatters Media’s COVID Fearmongering: “Only About 3 Or 4 More People In ICU”

Headlines like “Houston facing ‘apocalyptic’ July 4” sparked fear and panic across most of America’s media over the weekend as talk of max’d out ICUs and soaring case-numbers dominated every pixel (with very few able to see any link to this resurgence in cases and the riots and protests that began to take place a few weeks ago).

As per usual in this highly politicized world, another leading voice has emerged to clarify that this heightened state of alarm was all for naught, since Houston actually has the situation in its hospitals well in hand.

Houston Methodist CEO Dr. Marc Boom told CNBC on Monday that the demographics of the outbreak have “flipped” and that the mostly-younger people arriving in the state’s hospitals often don’t require ICU beds, even though many do get very sick.

“Even though we have about 200 more patients in house, about double, we only have about three or four more people in the ICU, so that’s encouraging.”

Additionally, as CNBC reports, Boom says Houston Methodist has the necessary capacity to handle the Covid-19 outbreak, echoing similar comments on CNBC Friday from Dr. David Callender, CEO of Memorial Hermann Health System in Houston.

Boom reiterated his comments from last week that the number of hospitalizations are “being misinterpreted, and, quite frankly, we’re concerned that there is a level of alarm in the community that is unwarranted right now.”

“We do have the capacity to care for many more patients, and have lots of fluidity and ability to manage,” Boom said.

He pointed out that his hospital one year ago was at 95% ICU capacity, similar to the numbers the hospital is seeing today.

“It is completely normal for us to have ICU capacities that run in the 80s and 90s,” he said.

“That’s how all hospitals operate.”

One twitter user @LWinthorpe noted that the CEO of another one of Houston’s main hospitals has issued a statement pushing back against the “unnecessarily alarm[ing]” reporting on ICU capacity in the state.

The TMC issued a serious statement about ICU capacity that unnecessarily alarmed our community, making it inaccurately appear that hospitals are in an imminent ICU capacity crisis. The letter was released prematurely Wednesday and it had unintended consequences.

What was intended to alert the community to the critical need to change behaviors, actually panicked the community.

Capacity is often misunderstood by media and the public and it was clear that we needed to correct the misunderstanding to best serve the public.”

Does make one wonder, just what was the point of all this fearmongering?

One former NYT Op-Ed contributor reminds us…

“To whom should propaganda be addressed? To the scientifically trained intelligentsia or the less educated masses? It must be addressed always and exclusively to the masses.”

~ Adolf Hitler (1998). “Mein Kampf”, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (Mein Kampf originally published July 18, 1925)

Finally, Texas Children’s Hospital CEO Mark Wallace added that his facility has “a lot of capacity.”

“There is not a scenario, in my opinion, where the demand for our beds … would eclipse our capability,” he continued.

“I cannot imagine that. I just cannot.”

Nevertheless, fear must be fostered and control of the people taken once again.

end

 

The mob invade Beverly Hills California and then the cops show up and arrest many
(zerohedge)

“Eat The Rich!”: BLM Invades Beverly Hills – Then The Cops Showed Up

 

Black Lives Matter protesters marched through the streets of California’s upscale Beverly Hills Friday night chanting “Eat the rich!” and “Abolish capitalism now!” – only to be confronted by the police, as reported by the Daily Wire.

According to the Beverly Hills PD, several arrests were made.

“The Black Lives Matter mob shut down Santa Monica Boulevard, Rodeo Drive, and intersections around the city center,” wrote Human Events managing editor Ian Miles Cheong – who posted several clips of the activity on Twitter.

Then the police showed up…

Of course, none of that’s being enforced until BLM sets foot in posh Beverly Hills.

 

 

end

An excellent commentary from Victor Davis Hanson on the upcoming uSA election

(zerohedge)

2020 Election Will Be A Contest Of The Angry

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via RealClearPolitics.com,

The old 2020 election was supposed to be about many familiar issues. It is not any more.

Up until now, the candidates themselves would supposedly be the story in November. The left had cited Trump’s tweets and erratic firings as windows into his dark soul.

The right had replied that an addled and befuddled Joe Biden was not really a candidate at all.

Instead he was a mere facsimile who would have to be carried to the Election Day on the shoulders of the Democratic party, only shortly to fade away.

Then a radical vice president soon could implement a hard-left agenda by succession what she could not through election.

Issues themselves are no longer likely to decide the election either. Not long ago progressives argued that the miracle Trump economy was in shambles, done in by plague, quarantine and riot.

They thundered that it was what you would expect from Trump’s innate chaos — a mess that would have to be invented if it had not existed.

The right had countered that deregulation, energy development, tax reform and reindustrialization that made America Great would make American Great — Again.

For all of 2019 and 2020, Democrats had claimed that a calm abroad would return with a Biden win. They talked of reestablishing the influence of postwar American-led diplomacy, soft power, traditional alliances, transnational organizations and the United Nations.

Trump Republicans believed all that was more the problem, not the solution. They argued that America’s relationships with NATO, China and the European Union were now at least founded on reality, not dangerous fantasies and stale bromides.

Trump opponents saw the November election as a return to Washington normality: no more fights with the press, no more paranoia of a deep state, no more dissident generals, canned FBI leaders or exasperated CIA officials.

Trump’s base instead had seen the November election as the last chance to drain the federal swamp of careerists, apparatchiks, corporate flunkies and various grifters.

These unelected and unaccountable bureaucrats, lobbyists and revolving-door functionaries over the prior decades had hacked at the Bill of Rights, stagnated the economy, mired the nation in endless winless wars and mortgaged the country to China.

But that conundrum is ancient history now.

For nearly a month, the nation has been consumed by massive protests and chronic riots, looting and arson.

The catalyst for the demonstrations — the violent and wrongful death of African American George Floyd while in the custody of Minneapolis police — is itself fading from connections with the ensuing upheavals.

Statues are toppled. Names are abruptly changed. Careers cancelled.

Police are both reviled — and walking off the job. Retired generals are no longer seen as conservative traditionalists but radicals themselves who dare to take on the commander-in-chief.

Downtown Seattle is no longer in the control of the city government.

The internet is aflame with self-appointed sleuths. They scour hours of video, and millions of words, searching for an indiscreet past remark — as fodder to take out a political opponent, a rival for a job or a personal enemy.

The people’s energy, tranquilized by a two-month national quarantine and terror of the coronavirus, has suddenly exploded in both massive protests and silent seething at the lawlessness.

The result is that for good or evil, the 2020 election is no longer really about Biden and Trump, Democratic or Republican policies, or progressive and conservative agendas.

Much of the country believes that America is racist, cruel and incapable of self-correction of its so-called original sins — without a radical erasure of much of its past history, traditions and customs.

It sees occasional violence as a necessary stimulant of long overdue change. It argues that the American founding focus on liberty and freedom as increasingly selfish and incompatible with social justice and equality.

Racism, the protesting left says, is in the American DNA. It finally requires massive cutting, chemotherapy and radiation — treatment that deservedly will sicken and may even kill the host.

The other half of the country will vote to preserve what is under attack. They feel that the dreamy world of the demonstrators and rioters is an Orwellian vision far worse than the present reality that they are protesting.

America in their view is the world’s only large, successful multiracial democracy. It is the dream destination of the world’s immigrants — precisely because its ancient institutions adapt and change for the better, but only if they are preserved and allowed to work.

The angry and the demonstrating are loud and visible; their opponents are angry and quiet.

The election will reveal not just who is more numerous — but sadly also who is the angriest.

end
Wall Street on ParadePam and Russ Martens:

Fed Stress test based on only a 8.5% drop in GDP?  Atlanta Fed GDP Now forecasts a decline of 47%

My goodness..

Pam and Russ Martens

and special thanks to Doug C for sending this to us

Fed’s Stress Tests Results Based on GDP Decline of 8.5 Percent; Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Forecast Says GDP Will Decline by 46.6 Percent

Chart of S&P 500, Citi and BAC Since February 15, 2020

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: June 26, 2020 ~

Yesterday the Federal Reserve released its highly awaited stress tests on the biggest and most dangerous banks in America. The stress test results fill an 83-page document with dozens of charts showing what would happen to the banks under a hypothetical “severely adverse scenario.”

This scenario, unfortunately, was previously prepared and pales in comparison to the actual economic damage rendered by the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, the severely adverse scenario for this year’s stress tests imagined the U.S. unemployment rate climbing to a peak of 10 percent in the third quarter of 2021. The unemployment rate is currently 13.3 percent. But far more frightening, the Fed’s severely adverse scenario for GDP imagined a decline of “8½ percent from its pre-recession peak, reaching a trough in the third quarter of 2021.”

As of yesterday, June 25, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate was for U.S. GDP to decline by a staggering 46.6 percent in the second quarter. In a feeble attempt to compensate for the fact that its “severely adverse scenario” now looks like a cake walk compared to the reality on the ground in the U.S., the Fed added what it calls a “sensitivity analysis.” That analysis assessed how the big banks would perform under three downside scenarios resulting from the coronavirus pandemic: a V-shaped recession; a slower, U-shaped recession; and a more severe W-shaped, double-dip recession.

The Fed summarized those three scenarios as follows: “Under the U- and W-shaped scenarios, most firms remain well capitalized but several would approach minimum capital levels.”

The Fed, however, did not provide individual bank results for those scenarios. It provided individual bank results only for its previously announced criteria for the “severely adverse scenario” that imagined unemployment at 10 percent and a GDP decline of 8.5 percent. Under that scenario, the Fed projected $552 billion in losses in the aggregate for the 33 banks it reviewed, over nine quarters.

We looked at where those projected losses were concentrated and, sure enough, they were concentrated at the biggest Wall Street banks. The breakdown was as follows: JPMorgan Chase, hypothetical losses of $64.4 billion; Citigroup, $47.7 billion; Wells Fargo, $47.4 billion; and Bank of America, $47.2 billion. In other words, the tally for just those four banks comes to $206.7 billion or 37 percent of the losses for all 33 banks.

The Fed really lost credibility, however, with these loss estimates for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, showing hypothetical losses of $9.8 billion and $5.3 billion, respectively, in the hypothetical “severely adverse scenario.” During the last financial crisis, one trader alone at Morgan Stanley, Howie Hubler, racked up $9 billion in losses.

The Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision, Randal Quarles, released this statement along with the stress test results:

“The banking system has been a source of strength during this crisis and the results of our sensitivity analyses show that our banks can remain strong in the face of even the harshest shocks.”

But the trading patterns of these bank stocks tell a very different story. The chart above shows how two of the biggest bank stocks, Citigroup and Bank of America, have fared since February 15 versus the Standard and Poor’s 500 broader market average. The losses on the share prices of the bank stocks have dramatically outpaced the broader market.

Then there is the fact that when the stock market experiences a sharp selloff, all of the biggest Wall Street bank stocks sell off far in excess of the broader market. That’s decidedly not how these bank stocks should be behaving if they are indeed a “source of strength.” Take June 11 of this year for example, as shown in the chart below. The S&P 500 experienced a decline of 5.89 percent while Citigroup lost 13.37 percent. Bank of America tanked by 10.04 percent while the largest bank in the country, JPMorgan Chase, which is under a criminal probe for allowing its precious metals desk to be reengineered into a racketeering enterprise, according to the U.S. Department of Justice, fell by 8.34 percent.

We are simply not persuaded that the biggest banks on Wall Street, which account for the bulk of the $202 trillion notional in derivatives, are going to provide the strength the U.S. needs to weather this unprecedented storm.

Another skeptic is Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard, who released her own dissenting opinion on the Fed allowing these banks to continue making dividend payouts. Brainard wrote the following in that regard:

“[The Fed] vote allows distributions to continue to be paid out, despite the material change in financial conditions. It implements a novel approach by authorizing third quarter dividends at a level equal to average net income over the prior four quarters—even though that past net income and more was already paid out in the prior quarters. The payouts will amount to a depletion of loss absorbing capital. This is inconsistent with the purpose of the stress tests, which is to be forward looking by preserving resilience, not backward looking by authorizing payouts based on net income from past quarters that had already been paid out.”

Closing Prices of Bank Stocks on June 11, 2020

end
Chesapeake  (oil and gas) fires for bankruptcy protection wiping out $7 billion in debt
(zerohedge)

Chesapeake Files For Bankruptcy, Wiping Out $7 Billion In Debt And Any Existing Equity Value

After years of melting, the Chesapeake icecube is finally history: at exactly 350pm on Sunday afternoon, the company that launched the US shale boom, finally gave up and filed for a pre-packaged bankruptcy in the Southern District of Texas. In so doing, the company with roughly $9.5 billion in debt has become one of the biggest victims of a spectacular collapse in energy demand from the virus-induced global recession, and follows the collapse of another high-flyer in the US oil patch, Whiting Petroleum, which filed for Chapter 11 at the start of April after championing what was once the premiere U.S. shale field, the Bakken of North Dakota.

As part of its prepack agreement, Chesapeake announced that it had entered into a Restructuring Support Agreement (“RSA”) with 100% of the lenders under its revolving credit facility, holders of approximately 87% of the obligations under its Term Loan Agreement, approximately 60% of its senior secured second lien notes due 2025, and approximately 27% of its senior unsecured notes, pursuant to which Chesapeake will implement a Chapter 11 plan of reorganization to eliminate approximately $7 billion of debt.

Of course, since 73% of unsecured bondholders refused to sign off on the deal, expect a very vicious bankruptcy fight over the recoveries, as hedge funds that accumulated positions in the bonds unleash hell in their fight with the secureds (even as the equity committee claims that all classes above it should be unimpaired).

Also, we have some bad news for Jefferies, which won’t be able to repeat its hilarious attempt to fund the company in bankruptcy by selling stock to Robnhood daytraders: as part of the RSA, the Company has secured $925 million in debtor-in-possession financing lenders under Chesapeake’s revolving credit facility.  The DIP will provide Chesapeake the capital necessary to fund its operations during the Court-supervised Chapter 11 reorganization proceedings.

To summarize: Chesapeake which enters bankruptcy with just over $9.5 billion in debt…

… will eliminate about $7 billion of it, and emerge with a $2.5 billion exit financing, consisting of a new $1.75 billion revolving credit facility and a new $750 million term loan. Additionally, according to the RSA, the Company has the support of its term loan lenders and secured note holders to backstop a $600 million rights offering upon exit.

Doug Lawler, Chesapeake’s President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, “We are fundamentally resetting Chesapeake’s capital structure and business to address our legacy financial weaknesses and capitalize on our substantial operational strengths. By eliminating approximately $7 billion of debt and addressing the legacy contractual obligations that have hindered our performance, we are positioning Chesapeake to capitalize on our diverse operating platform and proven track record of improving capital and operating efficiencies and technical excellence. With these demonstrated strengths, and the benefit of an appropriately sized capital structure, Chesapeake will be uniquely positioned to emerge from the Chapter 11 process as a stronger and more competitive enterprise.”

Lawler concluded, “Over the last several years, our dedicated employees have transformed Chesapeake’s business — improving capital efficiency and operational performance, eliminating costs, reducing debt and diversifying our portfolio. Despite having removed over $20 billion of leverage and financial commitments, we believe this restructuring is necessary for the long-term success and value creation of the business.”

In addition to leverage, Lawler also removed all the equity value, because with $7 billion in senior debt destroyed, there is no question here: the common stock has no value and will almost certainly be delisted immediately to avoid any potential “misunderstandings” should an army of 10-year-old veteran Robinhood traders decided to ramp it up by a few hundred percent.

And speaking of the company’s stock and daytrading activity, it is as if 216,915 Robinhood traders suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.

Why? Because according to RobinTrack, some 216,915 users who held on to the stock as of April 14, and whose number has certainly surged in recent days after the stock soared as high as $84.75 on June 8 during the peak of the retail euphoria boom that sent bankrupt Hertz stock also soaring and inspired Jefferies to read this blog and come up with the now-failed attempt to sell worthless stock to Robinhooders.

That said, in a market as insanely broken as this one, it is certainly possible that CHK stock which the company admits is worth about a negative $7 billion, could surge tomorrow… just because.

* * *

Finally, some corporate history courtesy of Bloomberg:

About a decade ago, Chesapeake was a $37.5 billion giant led by the late Aubrey McClendon, a colorful and outspoken advocate for the natural gas industry, who died on March 2, 2016 in what appeared to be a suicide. It was at the forefront of the fracking revolution that transformed the U.S. oil and gas industry by setting off a scramble for previously untapped shale reserves. The company cut eye-popping checks to Fort Worth businesses and residents as inducements to drill on their land in the Barnett Shale of North Texas, America’s first shale field to hit the big time.

Those heady days didn’t last. U.S. natural gas slumped after the financial crisis as the frackers overwhelmed demand, and prices still haven’t revisited their previous highs. Investors soured on Chesapeake, which by that point wasn’t only debt-laden but saddled with a real estate empire that included shopping centers, a church, and a grocery store. McClendon was ousted in 2013 and was killed in an auto accident three years later.

In subsequent years, management sought to compensate for the decline in its gas fortunes by shifting into oil exploration as fracking turned the U.S. into the world’s largest producer of crude as well as a major exporter. However, any optimism about that strategy evaporated with oil’s recent price collapse amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Lawler took over Chesapeake in 2013 with an aim of reducing its debt load that was larger than Exxon Mobil Corp.’s, a company 29 times Chesapeake’s market value at the time. He had counted on capital spending cuts and asset sales to cover debt obligations. The company was in talks last year with Jerry Jones, the billionaire Dallas Cowboys owner, about a $1 billion sale of shale assets, but no deal resulted.

In May, Lawler was forced to discard his company’s full-year outlook and write down the value of $8.5 billion in assets as energy demand tumbled amid the Covid-19 lockdown. By then, the producer’s market value had dropped to less than $200 million.

end

Legendary Cirque Du Soleil files for bankruptcy protection

(zerohedge)

Las Vegas Icon Cirque Du Soleil Files For Bankruptcy

For everyone who went to Vegas year after year and instead of going to one of the remarkable Cirque du Soleil performances would visit… less reputable “shows”, we have some bad news: you are now out of luck, because as the Las Vegas Review Journal reports, Cirque du Soleil – the Las Vegas Strip’s preeminent production company for more than two decades – has filed for bankruptcy protection, in which existing stakeholders have a “stalking horse” agreement to acquire the company, setting the minimum price for an auction.

According to the report, the company which had six productions on the Strip, announced Monday morning from its Montreal headquarters it was seeking a debt restructuring protection under its home country’s Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA). The company said in its filing announcement the bankruptcy filing and refinancing move was “in response to immense disruption and forced show closures as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

In March, Cirque du Soleil shut down all 44 of its shows and laid off 95% of its work force, including more than 1,300 in Las Vegas in response to the covid shutdowns.

In its bankruptcy, Cirque will receive a $300 million infusion from its investors (including $200 million from its own government agency, Investissement Québec). Existing investors including TPG, Fosun, and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec will acquire company’s assets for a combination of cash, debt, and equity to continue operations while productions are sidelined,as well as establish two funds totaling $20 million to provide additional relief to impacted employees and independent contractors

The filing also allows the company protection from creditors to reduce its debt load, reported to be at least $900 million, which is rather shocking for what has long been considered the Strip’s most popular and lucrative show.

The filing also sets a “stalking horse” purchase agreement with current investors, led by TPG Capital. From the announcement, “The purchase agreement sets the floor, or minimum acceptable bid, for an auction of the company under the court’s supervision pursuant to the SISP (Sale and Investor Solicitation Process), which is designed to achieve the highest value available or otherwise best offer for the company and its stakeholders.”

That means Cirque is available at a reduced, undisclosed price for a half-dozen suitors, including a consortium led by company co-founder Guy Laliberte, and another from the Canadian communications conglomerate Quebecor. The other parties who have entered the bidding process have not been made public, and today all of the potential investors are under non-disclosure agreements.

As a result of the fluctuating ownership, where debt is equitized and existing stakeholders are wiped out, it will take months for the company’s ownership to be established according to the Review Journal.

Cirque CEO Daniel Lamarre said in Monday morning’s announcement that the company had enjoyed 36 years of success until the pandemic took hold, and needed to act “decisively” to bolster its future. The purchase agreement is to set a template for Cirque to return as a stronger company.

“The robust commitment from the sponsors – which includes additional funds to support our impacted employees, contractors and critical partners, all of whom are important to Cirque’s return – reflects our mutual belief in the power and long-term potential of our brand,” he said. “I look forward to rebuilding our operations and coming together to once again create the magical spectacle that is Cirque du Soleil for our millions of fans worldwide.”

Alas, so far there has been no specified strategy from the company for when, how or even if all of its shows will reopen on the Strip. Prior to its bankruptcy, Cirque’s multiple permanent Las Vegas shows alone played to more than 9,000 people a night, 5% of the city’s visitors, adding to the over 100 million people who have seen Cirque du Soleil productions worldwide.

end

Food bank lines re-emerge as the COVID 19 paralyzes households

(zerohedge)

Food Bank Lines Reemerge As COVID Paralyzes Households

Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, food bank lines stretching for miles were seen across the US have come to symbolize the financial destruction of households triggered by an abrupt closing of businesses and unprecedented job losses.

Tens of millions of people lost their jobs, and millions more turned to food banks. The demand for food pantries was at record levels as the federal government deployed the National Guard to manage food supply chains to thwart disruptions.

In March, April, and May, food bank systems nationwide reported unprecedented demand as millions of hungry, jobless, and broke Americans, with insurmountable debts and no savings, had no meaningful way of putting food on their tables. To be more specific, food security among households in San Antonio, Texas, was a huge issue, resulting in more than 23 million pounds of food, serving 240,000 cars at drive-through distributions and 5,800 home visits – was seen at the San Antonio Food Bank over the three months.

During the period, retails sales bounced modestly after a stunning record decline – mostly because a quarter of all personal income was derived from the government. Essentially what this means is that the Trump administration activated the money helicopters to avoid a total collapse of the US economy – via unemployment and emergency benefits, welfare checks, and so on.

So here’s the issue explained by Twitter handle The Long View – the account notes the stimulus checks that have “bounced” retail sales “like a rubber band” are “all over in a few weeks & with the new uptick we likely see at least six more weeks of contraction with no plug. The real hit starts now.”

And Maybe, The Long View is right, because, while President Trump has given several press conferences where he declared that the economy is quickly recovering: “We’ve been talking about the V,” the president said. “This is better than a V. This is a rocket ship” – food bank lines could be, once again, reappearing…

Twitter handle Alastair Williamson posted a video Sunday shows dozens of vehicles waiting in line at what appears to be a food bank in Baltimore, Maryland. We were able to pinpoint the location via looking at local businesses in the video, able to determine the video was taken on York Road in Lutherville-Timonium, MD, outside the Maryland State Fair.

It appears the Maryland State Fair & Agricultural Society, Inc. has been running a food bank out of the fairgrounds for several months.

On Twitter user asked: “How can so many people afford cars and not food?”

Another Twitter user said: “7M US auto owners/borrowers are 90 days + in arrears.”

What this all suggests is that households remain devastated – President Trump’s helicopter drops of free money are likely wearing off as people are now having difficulty putting food on the table.

As a consumption hangover is imminent, the Trump administration will need to unleash more stimulus/socialist checks to broke and jobless Americans – though, as per The Long View, it appears consumption is set to plunge before the next checks arrive.

The perfect storm of weak consumption and the emergence of a second coronavirus wave could crush households and businesses in a second-round – food bank lines are becoming the new normal.

end

Looks like somebody got to Roberts:  Roberts sides with liberal judges in a Louisiana abortion law

(zerohedge)

Justice Roberts Swings Another SCOTUS Ruling; Blocks Louisiana Abortion Law

Update (12:18ET): The White House published an official state on today’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling, striking down a Louisiana law that would limit abortions.

The statement called the ruling “unfortunate:”

“Instead of valuing fundamental democratic principles, unelected Justices have intruded on the sovereign prerogatives of State governments by imposing their own policy preference in favor of abortion to override legitimate abortion safety regulations,” the statement concluded.

White House statement: 

*  *  *

Update (11:05ET): In response to Chief Justice John Roberts siding with liberal judges on the Louisiana abortion ruling – Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio tweets: “What’s next, Chief Justice Roberts? Our Second Amendment rights?”

*  *  *

The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday morning supported abortion rights by striking down a Louisiana law regulating abortion clinics, reported Bloomberg.

The 5-4 ruling, with conservative Chief Justice John Roberts siding with the court’s four liberals, determined that the law requiring doctors who perform abortions have admitting privileges at nearby hospitals violates the abortion right the court first published in the Roe v. Wade decision in 1973.

The Louisiana law is similar to the one in Texas that the court struck down in 2016 – making this the first big abortion case of the Trump era.

“The result, in this case, is controlled by our decision four years ago invalidating a nearly identical Texas law,” Roberts wrote.

“The legal doctrine of stare decisis requires us, absent special circumstances, to treat like cases alike,” he wrote.

“The Louisiana law imposes a burden on access to abortion just as severe as that imposed by the Texas law, for the same reasons. Therefore Louisiana’s law cannot stand under our precedents.”

As JustTheNews’ Sophie Mann noted, one speculation going into this ruling was that the reputation of the Roberts’ court would suffer if the body used the Louisiana case to overturn its previous ruling on the Hellerstedt case. Though Roberts was not the deciding vote in 2016, and the court has added several conservative-leaning justices since that time, Roberts has made it clear that a top priority of his is maintaining the integrity of the court.

This is the third time this month Chief Justice Roberts has sided with the liberals of the court on a hot-button social issue (protecting DREAMers, upholding LGBTQ employment rights, and now striking down state abortion restrictions).

As Daily Caller’s Mary Margaret Olohan notes, this SCOTUS ruling comes after Senate Minority Leader Schumer warned Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Justice Neil Gorsuch that they “won’t know what hit you if you go forward with these awful decisions,” related to the abortion case.

iv) Swamp commentaries

The sorry case of General Flynn

Jonathan Turley

“Irreparable Harms”: How The Flynn Case Became A Dangerous Game Of Legal Improvisation

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in USA Today on the D.C. Circuit ordering Judge Emmet Sullivan to dismiss the case of former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn.  After this column ran, new evidence emerged that further undermined the FBI and the targeting of Flynn, as discussed in another recent column.  Notes from fired FBI Special Agent Peter Strzok show that former FBI Director James Comey told President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden that Flynn’s call to the Russian diplomat “appear legit.” 

Nevertheless, Biden (who denied having anything to do with the case) is noted as raising the idea of a charge under the facially unconstitutional Logan Act, a law that has never been used successfully to charge a single person since the beginning of this Republic.

Comey of course was the one who later bragged that he “probably wouldn’t have … gotten away with it” in other administrations, but he sent “a couple guys over” to question Flynn, who was settling into his new office as national security adviser. We now know that, when Comey broke protocols and sent the agents, he thought the calls were legitimate ant that agents wanted to dismiss the investigation in December for lack of evidence. They were prevented from doing so as Strzok, Biden, and others discussed other crimes, any crime, to nail Flynn just before the start of the Trump Administration.

If all of that seems “illegitimate” and “irregular,” it pales in comparison to how two judges on the D.C. panel reviewed the handling of the Flynn case by Judge Emmet Sullivan.  It seems that everyone from the President to the Vice President to the FBI Director to ultimately the federal judge have engaged in a dangerous form of improvisational law when it came to Michael Flynn.  That will now hopefully end though many questions still remain.

It is possible for Judge Sullivan to appeal, though the upcoming hearing on Flynn has been removed from the docket.

Here is the column:

The dismissal of the case against former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn sent shock waves across Washington, including Congress which was hours away from a hearing addressing the case. Any appellate decision taking unprecedented measures to stop “irreparable harms” and “irregular” conduct is newsworthy. However, those admonishments were not describing Flynn’s conduct but that of his trial judge, U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan. The D.C. Circuit panel took the exceptionally rare step of ordering Sullivan to stop further proceedings and dismiss the case to avoid further damage caused by his prior orders.

The case should have been dismissed

One month ago, I wrote a column criticizing the handling of the Flynn case by Judge Sullivan after the government moved to dismiss its own prosecution.

The law in this case is clear and the case should have been dismissed. Instead, Sullivan took the extraordinary action of appointing a retired judge, John Gleeson, to argue positions that neither of the actual parties supported. Gleeson not only had publicly denounced the administration over its handling of the case but, as a judge, was reversed for “irregular” conduct in usurping the authority of prosecutors. In addition, Sullivan suggested that he might charge Flynn with perjury for alleging that he was wrongly charged despite the support of the Justice Department in finding abuses in his case.

Criticizing Sullivan, who I have appeared before for years as counsel and previously complimented for his demeanor, was not popular. Legal analysts in The Washington Post, CNN and other outlets insisted that his actions were entirely appropriate and justified. Yet, another letter from “former prosecutors” was given unquestioning media coverage to show that Sullivan should deny the motion in the case.

In an opinion piece, UCLA Law Professor and former U.S. Attorney under Bill Clinton, Harry Litman even explained how Sullivan could “make trouble” for the Trump administration in these hearings. Litman insisted that I was “a very lonely voice in the wilderness” of academia in contesting the use of an outside lawyer to make arguments in a criminal trial case that neither the defense nor the prosecution supported.

The wilderness now appears to include at least two other voices from the D.C. Circuit. The panel specifically denounced the “irregular” use of Gleeson and his hyperbolic arguments in the case. Gleeson suggested that the court should actually send Flynn to jail despite prosecutors raising evidence of misconduct and abuse as the basis for dismissal. He also argued that, rather than give Flynn a trial on a new charge from Sullivan of perjury, Flynn should just be sentenced in light of such perjury as part of his prior non-perjury charge.

Even for those of us who believed that Sullivan was operating well outside of the navigational beacons for a court in such case, the decision was breathtaking. Most of us expected that the appellate court would remand the case to allow Sullivan a face-saving hearing with an inevitable order to dismiss. The panel, however, clearly had little trust in the plans for this hearing or any true judicial purpose. Indeed, it may have been convinced that the primary purpose was indeed to “make trouble” for the administration.

As some of us wrote previously, the appellate court was particularly alarmed by the implications of Sullivan’s orders, including noting that the “invitation to members of the general public to appear as amici…”The panel said that such an invitation by Sullivan “suggests anything but a circumscribed review.” Moreover, it noted that the Justice Department had submitted troubling evidence of possible misconduct. And that “each of our three coequal branches should be encouraged to self-correct when it errs.”

Gleeson, wrong appointment

The panel was also aware of past concerns raised in the case, including the rather bizarre first sentencing hearing held in December 2018. In that hearing, Sullivan suggested that Flynn might be guilty of treason in a case involving comparatively minor charges of false statements to federal investigators. Sullivan dramatically used the flag in the courtroom as a prop and accused Flynn of being “an unregistered agent of a foreign country while serving as the national security adviser to the president of the United States. Arguably, that undermines everything this flag over here stands for. Arguably, you sold your country out.” (He later apologized for his comments.)

The irony, however, is that Sullivan proved the best thing that could have happened to Flynn. After that unnerving exchange, Sullivan asked if Flynn still wanted him to sentence him or wait. He indicated that he might go substantially beyond what Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s team had demanded. Flynn wisely decided to wait. The resulting delay allowed the damaging evidence from his case to be review and released. Had Sullivan simply sentenced Flynn last December, it would have been much more difficult for Flynn to have raised these issues.

Sullivan then handed down his novel orders including appointing his own counsel to argue for prosecution against the actual prosecutors.

This record proved too much for the appellate court. Rather than order Sullivan off the case, it decided to order Sullivan to dismiss the case. Short of an order of actual recusal of a judge, a mandamus order is the most stinging indictment of the handling of a case that can come from an appellate court.

The ruling in this case is unlikely to force any real circumspection by legal analysts or the media in the prior coverage. Nuanced legal questions quickly evaporate in this age of rage. Conflicting case law is dismissed in favor of the clarity demanded by echo journalism. The law however brings its own clarity and the message of this opinion could not be clearer.

Sullivan’s actions in the case did not spell “trouble” for the Trump administration, but rather, they spelled trouble for the administration of justice in our court system.

end

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

FDIC Considers Scrapping Quarterly Bank Reports [After more than 150 years!]

Agency to kick off competition to develop new reporting prototype that provides timely data on bank risks

    FDIC on Monday is expected to kick off a competition among 20 data and technology firms to develop a new reporting prototype that could provide the agency with more timely and targeted data about banks’ credit exposures and deposit information… [The smell of fear is in the air.]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fdic-considers-scrapping-quarterly-bank-reports-11593379800

Manhattan Office Rents Seen Plunging 26% in Prolonged Downturn [Savills report]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-26/manhattan-office-rents-seen-plunging-26-in-prolonged-downturn

@COVID19Tracking, Sunday night: The 7-day average for COVID-19 deaths is now nearly down to 500.

Texas hospital CEO: COVID inpatient count ‘misinterpreted,’ level of alarm ‘unwarranted’

In Texas, focal point of national anxiety about a coronavirus ‘second wave,’ the state counts every COVID-positive hospital patient as a hospitalization for COVID itself, which may be exaggerating numbers…   https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/texas-government-counting-every-covid-positive-hospital-case

From 6/20 to 6/27, Mexico has had more than 50% positive Covid test results.  Due to politics, the MSM is loath to report this aspect of the surge in US southern states’ Covid cases.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B9mnIa8GPfHZ7S69Jmxv4QC_JkqshstClPob8fa1KlE/edit#gid=0

@kerpen: Cases per 100k residents: High population non-border counties: Maricopa County, AZ: 961, Los Angeles County, CA: 944, Santa Clara County, CA: 206

Border counties: Yuma County, AZ: 2,678, Santa Cruz County, AZ: 3,556, Imperial County, CA: 3,322

Dr. Birx noted that Covid cases are escalating because increased testing identifies asymptotic cases.

Dr. David Samadi @drdavidsamadi: The COVID-19 death rate is steadily in decline, as you see in this chart!  Do not be taken by fear and paranoia.    https://twitter.com/drdavidsamadi/status/1276477552396247040

@Peoples_Pundit: CDC Director Robert R. Redfield said we were slammed in March/April (Correction: not April/May), because 70% actually died from pneumonia, and that deaths are not trending higher… Remarks from CDC Director Robert R. Redfield re: pneumonia impact on COVID-19 death count was significant given the CLEAR decline in pneumonia deaths from typical levels during the pandemic.Those were not appropriately marked, IMHO. [Normal pneumonia deaths are inflating Covid fatalities]

@CBSNews: Pence says roughly half of new coronavirus cases are Americans under 35… “very encouraging news” and “a good thing” because young people are less likely to have serious symptoms

Coronavirus task force makes plea to young people: ‘You will infect someone who’s vulnerable’

As more young people become infected with Covid-19, they may not be at risk of serious disease but could infect someone who is, members of the White House coronavirus task force warned on Friday…

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/coronavirus-task-force-to-young-people-you-will-infect-someone-vulnerable.html

Babylon Bee: Government Announces Lockdown of All Fast-Food Restaurants to Prevent Heart Disease – heart disease kills hundreds of thousands every year… “Although this will cost us millions of jobs, it’s a small price to pay to save so many lives. If it even saves one life, it would be worth it,”…

https://babylonbee.com/news/government-announces-lock-down-of-all-fast-food-restaurants-to-prevent-heart-disease

@zerohedge: JPM: “Most of the US states reporting significant increases in reported cases have also reported large increases in testing. If we instead focus on hospitalization data from the CDC to gauge severity of the outbreaks, they suggest far more modest increases in most cases

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1276909396753252352

@AlexBerenson: This paper from Spanish researchers was published June 13 and has received no attention. It should have. It reports finding copies of #SARSCoV2 in wastewater in Barcelona in March 2019. YES, 2019. https://medrxiv.org/content/10.110

China Message to U.S.: Beijing quietly tells Washington that ‘meddling’ in Hong Kong, Taiwan and other matters could jeopardize Chinese goods purchases under the Phase One trade deal

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-message-to-u-s-crossing-red-lines-could-put-trade-deal-at-risk-11593182991

Barr forms task force to counter ‘anti-government extremists’

“Among other lawless conduct, these extremists have violently attacked police officers and other government officials, destroyed public and private property, and threatened innocent people,” Barr wrote in a directive to all the Justice Department’s law enforcement components and U.S. attorneys. “Although these extremists profess a variety of ideologies, they are united in their opposition to the core constitutional values of a democratic society governed by law. . . . Some pretend to profess a message of freedom and progress, but they are in fact forces of anarchy,destruction, and coercion.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/william-barr-task-force-anti-government-extremists-antifa-boogaloo/2020/06/26/138f424e-b7bf-11ea-a510-55bf26485c93_story.html

Office of the DNI @ODNIgov: Statement by DNI Ratcliffe: “I have confirmed that neither the President nor the Vice President were ever briefed on any intelligence alleged by the New York Times in its reporting yesterday.”  “The White House statement addressing this issue earlier today, which denied such a briefing occurred, was accurate. The New York Times reporting, and all other subsequent news reports about such an alleged briefing are inaccurate.”

@CBS_Herridge: A senior intel official tells @CBSNews the GRU/Taliban bounty allegations were not contained in the President’s Daily Brief (PDB) which is the highly classified, daily summary of national security issues delivered to the President, key cabinet secretaries + advisers… The official confirmed the NSC has been doing “due diligence,” and going back through their files since the story broke Friday, and they have not found the “intelligence assessment” described in media reporting.  The official said the review is ongoing, but given current… talks with the Taliban, intel about a GRU operation involving the Taliban, targeting US forces would have risen to the level of inclusion in the PDB

@Cernovich: Per Admin source: Leaks to NYT are coming from a DOD official, who is leaking limited … classified information out of context, in order to undermine Trump’s policy to exit Afghanistan

Ex-CBS star reporter @laralogan: I have been a journalist for more than 35 years & I have never in my life witnessed such extreme disinformation coming from political figures. Four years of nonsense/lies peddled by Democrat leaders, believed by Trump haters, promoted by journalists pretending to care about truth.  It is sickening to watch people get away with it year after year… The truth is all that matters in the end – but amazingly, one side clings to these lies

Violence rises in Minneapolis, as debate over role of police rages

[Dweeb] Mayor Jacob Frey has asked for additional law enforcement assistance from several regional and federal agencies, including the Hennepin County Sheriff’s Office, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the FBI and the Secret Service, to help investigate and stem the bloodshed…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/violence-rises-in-minneapolis-as-debate-over-role-of-police-rages/2020/06/26/12fd6020-b7c6-11ea-aca5-ebb63d27e1ff_story.html

On Friday, the Minneapolis City Council voted unanimously to disband the Minneapolis Police.  Within minutes of the news, a report noted that Council members have been using private security for 3 weeks.

Minneapolis Council members get private security after threats

https://www.fox9.com/news/minneapolis-council-members-get-private-security-after-threats

@Peoples_Pundit: White liberal women, followed closely by white liberal men, are thus far the most likely to support calls to “defund the police“. Post-Graduate white liberals are most likely. All are far more likely than black voters, no matter the ideology… black voters in those urban areas aren’t as likely to support “defund the police”. Support comes almost exclusively from upper class white liberals.

1010 Wins radio: 112 injured or killed in 83 shootings over 9 days in NYC: ‘I haven’t seen anything like this in my entire life’ https://bit.ly/38a0Nag

De Blasio says ‘very substantial’ cuts coming to NYPD budget

https://nypost.com/2020/06/26/de-blasio-says-very-substantial-cuts-coming-to-nypd-budget/

272 uniformed NYPD cops file for retirement after George Floyd death

A 49 percent spike from the 183 officers who filed during the same period last year…

https://nypost.com/2020/06/27/272-nypd-cops-file-for-retirement-since-floyd-protests/

FedEx Halts Deliveries to Some Black Areas in Chicago – “… was based strictly on our commitment to ensure the safety of our team members & the security of our customers’ shipments.”https://www.wbez.org/stories/amid-civil-unrest-fedex-halts-delivery-to-some-black-areas-in-chicago/b1158a44-9df1-42ec-a00a-ebff2e158d79

From Friday thru early Sunday in Chicago, 45 people were shot, 11 killed including a 1-year old.

Do Black Lives Matter in Chicago? By Newt Gingrich

Last weekend in Chicago… there were more than 100 people shot—and at least 13 were killed. Twelve of these shooting victims were children, and five of them perished…. we do know that African-Americans accounted for roughly 81 percent of Chicago’s homicide victims in 2019, and 79 percent in 2018…

https://www.newsweek.com/do-black-lives-matter-chicago-opinion-1513758

Hunter Biden’s Ukraine firm landed deal with USAID program while under corruption investigation – Burisma official who signed 2014 deal was recently detained in alleged bribery plot in Ukraine and was publicly identified in 2014 British probe…

https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/ukraine-official-implicated-6-million-burisma-bribe

CBS: Biden says he’d use executive powers to force Americans to wear masks in public

@AnnCoulter: A “Biden” presidency will be like the “Mueller” investigation. A senile white male figurehead with lunatic leftists running the show.

@johncardillo: All of you telling me @realDonaldTrump is running a strong campaign seem to ignore that a hair sniffing man hiding in a basement with dementia and a history of segregationist policies is now a viable competitor to the incumbent President of the United States.

    We’re done as a nation if @realDonaldTrump doesn’t win, so it’s time to say what needs to be said.  The campaign is a disaster. Parscale [Neophyte Campaign Mgr.] is in over his head. Never Trumpers like Katie Walsh have tremendous power and control massive chunks of campaign money.

     Katie Walsh: Rabid Never Trumper who hates @realDonaldTrump; Mocks his base; Deserted 2016 campaign; Brought into WH by Priebus (was his RNC deputy); Fired from WH for leaking; Now running most of campaign behind the scenes, protected by Jared and Parscale; Disaster

Black Community Elders [in DC] Shutdown and Shame Anti-Statue Protest [mostly white]

https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/27/black-community-elders-shutdown-shame-anti-statue-protest/

Talk show host @chuckwoolery: I’m asking the Republican Party to come out from under their desks and make a stand against this Anarchy by the Left… You cowards have left Trump to take all the fire…many people on both sides think this is all about Race. I disagree, I think it’s all about the American Culture.

@business: Princeton is removing Woodrow Wilson’s name from its public policy school and one of its residential colleges after trustees concluded that his “racist thinking and policies” made him “an inappropriate namesake” https://trib.al/6P4jVwZ

Critics call for federal income tax [and Federal Reserve Act] signed by Woodrow Wilson to be cancelled after his name was removed from Princeton due to his ‘racist thinking and policies’ – as alumni says school has ‘given in to the woke leftist mob’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8466617/Critics-call-federal-income-tax-signed-Woodrow-Wilson-cancelled-Princeton-scrubbed-name.html

Texas Realtors: ‘Master Bedroom’ Is Officially Canceled… Call Back to Slavery, They Say

https://www.tmz.com/2020/06/26/master-bedroom-canceled-houston-realtors-texas-slavery-connotation-primary-bedroom/

Judge blocks 25% capacity rule for religious services in New York

A federal judge on Friday blocked New York State from enforcing coronavirus restrictions limiting indoor religious gatherings to 25% capacity when other types of gatherings are limited to 50%…

https://www.silive.com/news/2020/06/judge-blocks-25-capacity-rule-for-religious-services-in-new-york.html

“Eat The Rich!”: BLM Invades Beverly Hills – Then The Cops Showed Up

“The Black Lives Matter mob shut down Santa Monica Boulevard, Rodeo Drive, and intersections around the city center,” wrote Human Events managing editor Ian Miles Cheong… Of course, none of that’s being enforced until BLM sets foot in posh Beverly Hills…

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/eat-rich-blm-invades-beverly-hills-then-cops-showed

@MrAndyNgo: Washington D.C. Target swarmed by BLM protesters. They repeat a mantra about shutting down businesses.   https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1277198174973620228

@WayneDupreeShow: For the peaceful protestors upset with being lumped in with rioters, looters & law breakers… It’s kind of like all the great police officers being lumped in with the few bad ones, isn’t it?

We’re in a Cultural Civil War It’s Time for Conservatives to Fight Back – The Black Lives Matter movement is not a majority. Its radical agenda can be resisted and defeated. But not if ordinary Americans stay silent…  https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/26/were-in-a-cultural-civil-war-its-time-for-conservatives-to-fight-back/

California Democrats pass resolution calling for John Wayne Airport to be renamed… over “racist and bigoted statements” made by the American icon decades ago…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/california-democrats-resolution-john-wayne-airport-renamed

@no_silenced: Members of five Native American nations, the Cherokee, Chickasaw, Choctaw, Creek, and Seminoles all owned black slaves.  They were not required to follow the proclamations under the Constitution.  The US had to negotiate to have them freed.  History is interesting when you… know it

Ex-NSC Dir General Spalding (USAF) @robert_spalding: it’s all about NovemberThere are those willing to destroy the US for their own political power. Others have joined the fray, because they see their worldview crumbling. America’s survival is in your hands. Think. Vote.

@DineshDSouza: Now, as in 1860, Lincoln is the dividing line… we must be prepared to do whatever is necessary to punish the Democrats’ disregard for law and their attempt to overturn a legitimate election

Except for about 6 Republican reps and 3 senators, the only politician fighting the radical transformation of the USA is Trump.  This is a very distressing notion because DJT is his own worst enemy and clearly most of the GOP Party is cowardly, useless and indifferent to the plight of average Americans.

GOP Senator Lindsey Graham Rips President Trump Again for Visa Ban – Claims It Has a Negative Impact on the Economy [Graham, the late John McCain’s BFF, is among the most voluble but useless senators in captivity.  He incessantly yaps to the media but is reluctant to actually act on his BS.  Graham is GOPe (establishment) all the way.]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/06/senator-lindsey-graham-rips-president-trump-visa-ban-claims-negative-impact-economy/

Four years ago, WaPo: In new poll, support for Trump has plunged, giving Clinton a double-digit lead  June 26, 2016 – A large majority of Americans register their disapproval and see the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee as discriminatory and unqualified, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll…Clinton leads Trump 51 percent to 39 percent among registered voters nationwide, the poll found… Trump’s political standing is on dangerous ground. Fifty-six percent of the public at large say the celebrity business mogul stands against their beliefs, while 64 percent say he does not have the necessary credentials to be president. Fifty-six percent feel strongly that he is unqualified.

Nearly one-third of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say Trump is unqualified for office, and 18 percent say he does not represent their beliefs, exposing fissures in the GOP base…Underscoring these doubts, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) refused when pressed Sunday to say whether he thought Trump was qualified…  The survey of 1,001 randomly selected adults found a slight uptick in the share of people who identify as Democrats, from 33 percent in May’s poll to 36 percent this month. Self-described Republicans accounted for 24 percent of those polled this month, ticking down from 25 percent in May, while independents made up 33 percent…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-new-poll-support-for-trump-plunges-giving-clinton-a-double-digit-lead/2016/06/25/0565bef6-3a31-11e6-a254-2b336e293a3c_story.html

Please note that the above WaPo-ABC poll oversampled Democrats (36% Dems, 24% Repubs), which is what current polls are doing.  We saw one recent poll that was Dem +17: the poll sampled 17 percentage points more Democrats than Republicans.  It showed Biden with a 12-point lead.

A Harris poll from July 28, 1988 showed Dukakis with an 18-point lead over Bush I.  Other polls showed similar leads in the summer of 1988.  https://theharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Harris-Interactive-Poll-Research-DUKAKIS-HOLDS-18-POINT-LEAD-WITH-GOP-STILL-TO-BE-HEARD-FROM-1988-07.pdf

Bush beat Dukakis 426-111 in electoral votes.  Veteran readers might recall that in the summer of 2016 we noted that since early in FDR’s reign, with 2 or 3 exceptions, the Dem presidential candidate has lead in the polls during the summer months.  Democrats detested Bush and Republicans, ex-the establishment, did not like or trust Bush.  Bush I made the ‘read my lips, no new taxes’ speech to allay those fears.  Of course, he reneged on the promise.  When the election arrived, GOP voters and enough independents ‘came home’ to Bush I because the alternative was scarier.  Many GOP voters are upset that Trump is not being more forceful in defending against domestic terrorism and long-held US principles.  This is reflected in current polling.  Will disgruntled GOP voters and swinger voters come to DJT in November?

@CBSNews: Fauci says COVID-19 contact tracing is not working well because many Americans, particularly in black and brown communities, do not want to pick up phone calls from government representatives [The same is true of pollsters; so polls’ tracing doesn’t work well either.]

@AlexMarlow: Pelosi talks about assuring George Floyd’s daughter that his name is never forgotten… as she calls him “George Kirby.” [Schumer did the same.] https://twitter.com/AlexMarlow/status/1276587705623855105

House Democrats passed a bill on Friday that would make DC a state, so the Dems would gain two more Senate Seats.  Not only is this a risible and futile effort (It will die in the Senate); it opens up the door for Republicans to make one big-blue city in a blue state a separate state.  This would turn the state red and give two more Senate seats to the GOP. Plus, it would provide more Electoral Votes for the GOP.

@AnnCoulter in response to Miami-Dade, Fla. officials closing beaches for July Fourth weekend: Liberals refuse to trust science.  Covid has negligible transmissibility outdoors.

Liberal Constitutional Law Professor Jonathan Turley rages about the politicization of ‘the law’.

“Irreparable Harms”: How the Flynn Case Became a Dangerous Game of Legal Improvisation

Nuanced legal questions quickly evaporate in this age of rage. Conflicting case law is dismissed in favor of the clarity demanded by echo journalism. The law however brings its own clarity and the message of this opinion could not be clearer. Sullivan’s actions in the case did not spell “trouble” for the Trump administration, but rather, they spelled trouble for the administration of justice in our court system.  https://jonathanturley.org/2020/06/28/making-trouble-how-the-flynn-case-became-a-dangerous-game-of-legal-improvisation/

Satellite image: Iran blast was near suspected missile site

An explosion that rattled Iran’s capital came from an area in its eastern mountains that analysts believe hides an underground tunnel system and missile production sites, satellite photographs showed Saturday… https://apnews.com/8d2517ff364bb395f0385859f0fa9d0f

Amir Tsarfati @BeholdIsrael: The Iranian silence after the Thursday night blast in Parchin near Tehran is suspicious. Parchin is where we know Iran built a large explosives containment vessel or chamber to conduct high explosive and hydrodynamic experiments related to the development of nuclear weapons.

@COLRICHARDKEMP: Explosion in Iran’s eastern mountains was caused by a cyber-attack that turned the facility on itselfdestroying Iran’s Shahab long-range missile force stored in the Khajir tunnel base complex as well as the solid fuel production facility

Well that is all for today

I will see you TUESDAY night.

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