JUNE 30//GOLD UP A STRONG $16.50 TO $1783.50//SILVER UP 39 CENTS TO $18.20//GOLD STANDING FOR JULY 13.96 TONNES/SILVER STANDING FOR JULY 84 MILLION OZ/CORONAVIRUS UPDATES//USA REVOKES HONG KONG’S SPECIAL STATUS//CHINA’S XI PASSES THE NATIONAL SECURITY LAWS//EU BANS USA TRAVEL ENTRIES//SWAMP STORIES//

GOLD:$1783.50  UP $16.50   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.20// UP 39 CENTS  London spot price

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1780.90  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $18.21//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

AUG GOLD:  $1800.00  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JUNE: $16.50

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $18.62…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE JULY//  :  42 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $29.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING:  1264/3316

issued:  2040

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 3316 NOTICE(S) FOR 331,600 OZ (10.314 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  3316 NOTICES FOR 331600 OZ  (10.314 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

11,458 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 57,290,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 11,438 for 57.290 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9147  DOWN 44  

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9143 DOWN $49

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $16.50 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

 

GLD: 1,178.90 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

A SMALL PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 0.466 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV///

AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE,

AND A HUGE 1.212 MILLION OZ OF A DEPOSIT INTO THE SLV//

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 492.604  MILLION OZ./

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4349 CONTRACTS FROM 176,037 DOWN  TO 171,688, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN  OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY  1 CENT LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE CONCLUSION OF OUR SPREADER LIQUIDATION ALONG WITH  SOME STRONG  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A HUMONGOUS STANDING IN SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.  WE HAD A NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3664 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUMONGOUS AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   JULY: 60  AND SEP 625 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  685 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1051 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 685 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.910 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 1 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

87.175 MILLION OZ INITIALLY IN JULY.

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 1 CENT).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE NO DOUBT  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE STRONG LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A STRONG (AND ITS CONCLUSION) OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION, ii) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A HUMONGOUS STANDING IN SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY,  STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A STRONG NET LOSS OF 3664 CONTRACTS OR 18.3200 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

SPREADING OPERATIONS

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO SILVER…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JULY.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JUNE

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JUNE:

14,230 CONTRACTS (FOR 23 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 14,230 CONTRACTS) OR 71.15 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 618 CONTRACTS OR 3.093 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY: 71.15 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 10.16% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,137.37 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 60 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED  AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4349, DESPITE OUR 1 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAY… THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 685 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A  STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3664 CONTRACTS (DESPITE OUR 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICE)//WITH THE DOMINANT FACTOR OF OI LOSS BEING THE CONCLUSION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION FOR THE MONTH.

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 685 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED DECREASE OF 4349 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.81 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.8890 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 127% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JULY  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 11,458 NOTICE(S) FOR 57.290 MILLION OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 84.17 million oz
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 2015 CONTRACTS TO 547,874 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR ADVANCE IN PRICE  OF $2.90 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY// WE  HAD STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING, ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.90 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  25

 

WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 2931 CONTRACTS  (9.117 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 916 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 916 AND DEC: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 916.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 547,785. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2931 CONTRACTS: 2015 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 916 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 2931 CONTRACTS OR 9.117 TONNES. MONDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $2.90 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 9.117 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $2,90).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS  UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (916) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (2015 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3020 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A STRONG  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JULY MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN.. AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//MONDAY//$2.90.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 61,749 CONTRACTS OR 6,174,900 oz OR 192.06 TONNES (23 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2784 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 23 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 192.06 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 192.06/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.41% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3027.60  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 4349 CONTRACTS FROM 176,037 DOWN TO 171,688 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1) STRONG SPREADER LIQUIDATION (ITS CONCLUSION) AND AS WELL WE HAD 2) BANKER SHORT COVERING , 3) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 4) A HUMONGOUS STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR JULY AND  5) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 685 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 60 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 4625 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 685 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 4349  CONTRACTS TO THE 685 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  LOSS OF 3664 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 18.3200 MILLION  OZ OCCURRED WITH THE 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 685 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.16 POINTS OR 0.78%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 125.91 POINTS OR 0.52%   /The Nikkei closed UP 293.10 POINTS OR 1.33%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.45%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0736 /Oil UP TO 39.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.27 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0736 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0766 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL 2015 CONTRACTS TO 547,785 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS SMALL  COMEX ADVANCE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $2.90 IN GOLD PRICING /MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A TINY EFP ISSUANCE (916 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER HUMONGOUS STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//JULY DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) , …  AS WE ENGINEERED A FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2931 CONTRACTS WITH GOLD’S SMALL GAIN IN PRICE.

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 25

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 916 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  0 FOR  FOR AUG 916 AND 0 FOR DEC AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 916 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  2931 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 916 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 2015 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A SMALL  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL COMEX OI GAIN,  A HUGE  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JULY DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION……AND WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE WE HAD A SMALL GAIN IN COMEX PRICE OF JUST 2.90 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $2.90).  AND, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A SMALL 9.117 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 2931 CONTRACTS OR 293,100 OZ OR 9.117 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  547,785 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 54.78 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1703 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1703/2200 OR 77.45% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 198,044 contracts//poor//most traders have moved to London

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  139,660 contracts//  volume extremely poor //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

JUNE 30 /2020

JULY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 96,453.000 oz

Brinks

3,000 kilobars

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

299,486.56

OZ

BRINKS

JPMorgan

Malca

 

includes

5000

KILOBARS JPM

 

and 4100 kilobars  Malca

No of oz served (contracts) today
3316 notice(s)
 331600 OZ
(10.314 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1176 contracts
(117600 oz)
3.65 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3316 notices
331600 OZ
10.314 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into Brinks:  96,453.000 oz  (3,000 kilobars)

total deposit: 96,453.000 oz

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 3 deposits into the customer account

 

 

i) Into BRINKS:   6,912.460 oz

ii) Into JPMorgan: 160,755.000 oz (5,000 kilobars)

iii) Into Malca:  131,819.100 oz (4100 kilobars

 

total deposit:  299,486.56 oz

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

i) Out of HSBC  11,165.275 oz

 

total gold withdrawals;  11,165.25  oz

We had 3  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 0 //    

 

 

 

The front month of JULY registered a total of 4492 oi contracts FOR a LOSS of 132 contracts. Thus by definition the initial amount of gold that will stand for the month of July is as follows:

4492 contracts x 100 oz per contract =  449,200  oz or 13.97 tonnes of gold

 

Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI ROSE by A STRONG 132  contracts UP to 381,641 contracts.

 

We had 3316 notices filed today for 331,600 oz

 

FOR THE JULY 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 2040 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3316 contract(s) of which 5 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1264 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3316) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY (4492 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (3316 x 100 oz per contract) equals 449,200 OZ OR 13.97 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (3316 x 100 oz + (4492 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3316) x 100 oz which equals 449,200 oz standing OR 13.97 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JULY delivery month (a  non active delivery month).

I came pretty close in my prediction as to what will stand in gold in July.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

312,441.780 oz PLEDGED  JUNE 24// 2020  JPMORGAN:  10.036 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

19,290.600 oz Pledged May 8/2020   INT DELAWARE:  .600 TONNES

 

477,821.587 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/               14.865 tonnes

total pledged gold:  996,191.227.127 oz                             31.017 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 365.86 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 13.97 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  12,758,872.810 oz or 396.85 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020) which cannot be settled upon:  312,441.780 oz (or 9.718 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    19,290.600 oz  which cannot be settled:   (.600 tonnes)
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  21,026.754 oz which cannot be settled June 5 (.65402 tonnes)
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 456,794,87 oz added which cannot be settled:  14.208 tonnes
total brinks:  477,821.587 oz
total weight of pledged:  996,191.227 oz or 31.017 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 11,762,681  (365.86 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  11,762,681.0 (365.86 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  19,372,675.238 oz (602.571 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   32,151,548.048 oz 1000.048 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  873.74 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JUNE 30/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 4349 CONTRACTS FROM 176,037 DOWN TO 171,688 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,384 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS DUE TO;   1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A HUMONGOUS AMOUNT OF  SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE JULY CONTRACT MONTH ,  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 5) CONCLUSION OF OUR SPREADER LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 685 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 60 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 625 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 685 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 4349  CONTRACTS TO THE 685 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS OF 3664 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 18.3200 MILLION  OZ OCCURRED WITH THE 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICE///HOWEVER THE DOMINANT LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 1 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 685 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

JUNE 30/2020

JULY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 617,916.696 oz
Delaware
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,236,754.620 oz
CNT
Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
11,458
CONTRACT(S)
(57,290,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
5377 contracts
 26,885,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  11,458 contracts

57,290,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii) Into  CNT:  606,558.270 oz

 

 

iv) Into Loomis:  630,196.400  oz

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.819 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.07% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/321.178 million

 

total customer deposits today: 1,236,754.620    oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware: 17,002.456 oz

ii) Out of Scotia:  600,914.240

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 617,916.696   oz

We had 3 adjustments

Customer account to Dealer:

i) CNT: a huge 3,654,954.940 oz

ii) JPMorgan:  a whopping: 29,721,606.614

 

total dealer silver: 123.985 million

total dealer + customer silver:  321.178 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The front month of July has an open interest of  16,835 contracts

Thus by definition, the initial amount of silver standing  in this active month of July is as follows:

16,835 contracts xx 5000 oz per contract =  84.175 million oz. which surpasses all previous records.

 

The next month after July is the non active month of  August and here  sees its open interest ROSE by 53 contracts UP to 697

The big September contract month sees a gain of 982 contracts up to 124,262.

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2020. contract month is represented by 11,458 contract(s) FOR 57.290 MILLION, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 11,458 x 5,000 oz = 57,290,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY.(16,835) and the number of notices served upon today 11,458 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 11,458 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (16,855)- number of notices served upon today (11,458) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.equals 84,170,000 oz.  (A WHOPPER )

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME: 73,976 CONTRACTS // volume  good/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 62,050.,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume  good/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 62,050 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 310 million  OZ  44.32% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 1.27% ((JUNE 30/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO -0.14% to NAV:   (JUNE 30/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.27%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 16.95 TRADING 16.90///NEGATIVE 0.30

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JUNE 30//WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $5.03 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.46 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.39 TONNES

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.50 TONNES

JUNE 9//WITH GOLD UP $16.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1125.48 TONNES

JUNE 8//WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.11 TONNES

 

JUNE 5//WITH GOLD DOWN $40.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.21 TONNES

JUNE 4//WITH GOLD UP $20.60: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1133.37 TONNES

JUNE 3//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 0.78 TONNES OF GLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.28 TONNES

JUNE 2//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.40 TONNES

JUNE 1//WITH GOLD UP $1.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES OF GOLD//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1123.14 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///GLD INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 28//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $.10 TODAY: A STRONG 2.34 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1119.05 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

JUNE 30/ GLD INVENTORY 1178.90 tonnes*

LAST;  850 TRADING DAYS:   +235.00 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 750 TRADING DAYS://+413.18  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT XXX MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE//// AND A LARGE DEPOSIT OF 1.212 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.605 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE WITHDRAWALS OF 932,000 MILLION OZ AND 1.491 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.240 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 648,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.663  MILLION OZ

JUNE 4//WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

 

JUNE 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 2//WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS 6.686 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 1//WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 466.629 MILLION OZ//

MAY 29//WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.796 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 463.273 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.660 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.477 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

 

JUNE 30.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

492.604 MILLION OZ.

END

 

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES//  GOLD LEASE RATES

 

 

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 3.62/ and libor 6 month duration 0.37

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

GOLD LENDING RATE: -3.25%

NEGATIVE GOLD LEASING RATES INCREASING BY A HUGE AMOUNT//GOLD SCARCITY AND CENTRAL BANKS CALLING IN ALL OF THEIR GOLD LEASES

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.49%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 0.56

 

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = -1.93%

 

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold Heads for 17% Gain In First Half 2020 and Biggest Quarterly Gain Since 2016

 Gold bullion appears set for the biggest quarterly advance since 2016 amid a surge in demand for gold bullion and other safe haven assets due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak and economic lockdowns, which show little signs of abating.

Gold bullion has gradually eked out a 17% gain in dollars so far in 2020 as risk assets, especially stock markets, fall sharply. Gold has gained nearly 18% in euros and by 25% in British pounds as the UK economy has the worst contraction since 1979.

Gold is now the top performing asset in the world as the health crisis prompts a wave of stimulus, fiscal spending and bail outs from governments and central banks as they desperately tried to minimize the damage to an already very fragile global economy.

Investors also continue to diversify into gold bullion coins and bars in vaults globally and into gold backed exchange traded funds (ETFs), with holdings at a record.

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold Heads for Biggest Quarterly Gain Since 2016

Gold poised for best quarter in 4 years as virus fears persist

UK economy hit worse than first thought – Worst GDP fall since 1979

Treasury yields retreat as Fed’s Powell stresses uncertainty and coronavirus cases surge

China’s counterfeit gold scandal in Wuhan may lead to a surge in demand for real gold bars

Own gold coins and bars in the safest vaults in Zurich, Switzerland with GoldCore. Learn why Switzerland remains a safe haven jurisdiction for owning precious metals. Access Our Most Popular Guide, the Essential Guide to Storing Gold in Switzerland here

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

29-Jun-20 1768.80 1771.60, 1434.67 1440.31 & 1571.23 1573.54
26-Jun-20 1762.10 1747.60, 1420.61 1414.51 & 1570.03 1559.91
25-Jun-20 1758.55 1756.55, 1412.64 1414.73 & 1565.29 1565.79
24-Jun-20  1775.70 1766.05, 1420.74 1416.90 & 1573.63 1567.55
23-Jun-20  1755.60 1768.90, 1409.85 1416.36 & 1556.17 1560.70
22-Jun-20  1745.45 1761.85, 1405.26 1418.11 & 1555.72 1567.17
19-Jun-20  1728.55 1734.75, 1392.17 1401.16 & 1541.18 1545.49
18-Jun-20  1732.65 1719.50, 1384.73 1383.51 & 1539.29 1532.93
17-Jun-20  1717.30 1724.35, 1368.69 1375.17 & 1527.88 1537.26
16-Jun-20  1728.35 1719.85, 1366.61 1361.78 & 1525.44 1526.54
15-Jun-20  1710.40 1710.45, 1365.58 1361.52 & 1520.72 1516.83
12-Jun-20  1735.85 1733.50, 1374.10 1378.13 & 1533.28 1534.15
11-Jun-20  1731.90 1738.25, 1361.79 1373.74 & 1519.57 1528.10



Access Latest Goldnomics Podcast (Part II) Here

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Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

For your interest…

(GATA)

Another ignorant ‘expert’ dismisses complaints of gold market rigging

 Section: 

2p ET Monday, June 29, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In an essay posted today at FX Empire, “Gold Market Manipulation and the Federal Reserve,” financial planner Kelsey Williams both admits and dismisses complaints of manipulation of the gold market.

Williams doesn’t identify the people he purports to be rebutting, but his characterization of them doesn’t fit GATA, even though he seems to think it does.

… 

“Some gold bulls,” Williams writes, “have bought in heavily to the argument that gold price suppression has been an ongoing activity for years, even decades. Supposedly, trading in the gold market is manipulated in ways that depress the market price for gold.

“Assertions are made that the manipulation takes place in a shroud of secrecy; and the unexpected lower prices for gold, or prices that don’t meet wildly bullish expectations, are cited as evidence of conspiratorial activity. The claim is made that the price of gold would be much higher if this manipulative trading activity were exposed, acknowledged, and prohibited. But … all markets are manipulated.

The sneer about complaints of “conspiratorial activity” is easily refuted. After all, has Williams ever tried attending a meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, the Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, the G-10 Gold and Foreign Exchange Committee, or the board of the Bank for International Settlements?

Of course Williams wouldn’t be allowed in.

If Williams had been around in the 1960s, he also would have been prohibited from attending the deliberations of the London Gold Pool —

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Gold_Pool

— whose demise 52 years ago refutes Williams’ skepticism that gold market manipulation has been happening for decades.

GATA has documented how all those entities are or were heavily involved in the gold market —

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

— and all of them function or functioned in secret. That’s the definition of “conspiracy.”

By “all markets are manipulated,” Williams suggests that manipulation of the gold market is less important than the manipulation of other markets. But he contradicts his suggestion at the conclusion of his essay, when he writes: “Gold is the original measure of value for all other goods and services.”

Indeed, the manipulation of the gold market is the prerequisite for the manipulation of all other markets.

“Gold and silver bulls are one-sided in their arguments against manipulation and its presumed effect on prices,” Williams writes. “When prices don’t meet expectations on the high side, or an ‘unexpected’ drop in price occurs, finger-pointing at shadow figures is heightened.”

But these are not “shadow figures” at all. They are government agencies very well specified by GATA, like the BIS, whose surreptitious intervention in the gold market on behalf of its central bank members reached a three-year high in May:

http://gata.org/node/20214

Exactly what is the BIS doing in gold and for whom? GATA asked the bank a few years ago and promptly received a “no comment”:

http://www.gata.org/node/17793

Like most others who purport to analyze the gold market, Williams should try putting a few critical questions to the BIS and major central banks and then ponder the meaning of their refusals to answer.

Williams continues: “Long-side investors in all assets, including precious metals, ‘benefited’ from the manipulative efforts of the Federal Reserve 12 years ago and again just recently. The recent recovery in prices for stocks, bonds, oil, gold, and silver has been almost unbelievable. It is literally jaw-dropping, but nobody is complaining. Nobody cries foul when markets are manipulated for the purpose of driving prices higher.”

Wrong.

GATA has been complaining about gold market manipulation since 1999, through rising prices as well as falling prices, because our bigger objectives are free and transparent markets and limited and accountable government, objectives that cannot be achieved without a free market in the monetary metals.

GATA also often has called attention to the ability of central banks to use market intervention to push the gold price up so as to devalue their currencies and the debts owed in them — at central banking’s convenience, of course:

http://www.gata.org/node/4843

http://www.gata.org/node/11373

Discussion of gold market manipulation is no good without specifics. Williams pontificates while addressing none:

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-market-manipulation-and-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Bill Murphy discusses gold and silver with Dunagun Kaiser

(GATA)

GATA Chairman Murphy discusses prospects for monetary metals

 Section: 

10:45p ET Monday, June 29, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, interviewed by Dunagun Kaiser for Reluctant Preppers and Finance and Liberty, answers viewers’ questions about the prospects for the monetary metals, as well as the possibility of a “reset” of the world financial system. The discussion is 29 minutes long and can be viewed at You Tube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72WKG9q9TYg&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

Gold Smashes Above $1800 For First Time Since 2011

Just a day after the counterfeit China gold bar story hit the market, precious metals are bid this morning with Gold futures surging above $1800 for the first time since Nov 2011…

Breaking above May’s highs…

We asked yesterday – What happens next: a panicked scramble to procure physical gold, one which even our friends at the BIS will be powerless to stop from sending the price of the precious metal to all time highs.

It appears that has begun…

Silver also soared back above $18…

Gold is tracking higher along with global negative-yielding debt…

This move comes, as SchiffGold.com notes, as Citibank has joined other mainstream gold bulls calling for record gold prices.

Citi raised its gold price forecast this week. It now projects a three-month price of $1,825 per ounce and for the yellow metal to head into record territory in 2021. Citi analysts expect gold to eclipse the $2,000 mark early next year.

Citibank joins several other mainstream players that now project record gold prices in the coming months. Last week, we reported Goldman Sachs now forecasts record gold prices within the next 12 months and Bank of America released a note saying gold could break its US dollar record by the end of the year if it continues to breach key resistance levels.

Meanwhile, SGMC Capital Founder & CEO Massimiliano Bondurri told Bloomberg he thinks gold may hit close to $2,000 by the end of this year and could rally further due to dollar weakness.

It can rally much, much further than here, for a number of reasons. First of all, we expect dollar depreciation to continue, so that’s likely to benefit gold.”

And Edison Investment Research is even more bullish, saying gold has the potential to go as high as $3,000.

Gold has been on a strong run over the last couple of weeks as the number of coronavirus cases has surged. Bullion is up better than 12% in this quarter.

Safe-haven demand has given gold a boost, but the big driver is the Federal Reserve and its unprecedented money printing. As US Global CEO Frank Holmes recently pointed out, there is a strong correlation between the expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet and the price of gold. We’ve already seen the balance sheet balloon by over $3 trillion in response to the coronavirus pandemic and it currently stands at over $7 trillion. Holmes said he thinks the central bank will likely grow its balance sheet to $10 trillion before all is said and done. If history is any teacher, that could mean $4,000 gold.

Edison director Charles Gibson also emphasized the correlation between the Fed balance sheet and the price of gold.

The reason this is significant is because, since 1967, the price of gold has shown an extremely strong (0.909) correlation with the total US monetary base. Gibson. The more dollars that either are, or could be, in circulation, the higher the expected gold price.”

Along with bullishness for gold, we’re starting to see some mainstream concern about dollar debasement – something Peter Schiff has been talking about for years. In its note, Goldman Sachs cited “continued debasement concerns” and a weaker dollar as two of the factors it sees driving gold higher.

Yale economist Stephen Roach’s recently warned that “the era of the US dollar’s ‘exorbitant privilege’ as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end.” Meanwhile, Guggenheim Investments Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd said that while “there are no signs the world is questioning the value of the US dollar” right now, it’s clear that the greenback is  “slowly losing market share as the world’s reserve currency.”

And he said buying gold is the key to offsetting the dollar’s decline.

With the Fed going all-in on financing the government deficit, the US dollar could be at risk to negative speculation of its status as the dominant global reserve currency. Investing in gold may help offset this trend.”

Is the world losing faith in fiat?

end

(courtesy Peter Schiff)

If History Is Any Guide We Could See $4,000 Gold

Via SchiffGold.com,

If history is any guide, we could be heading toward $4,000 gold. This according to analysis by US Global CEO Frank Holmes.

Holmes recently appeared on Kitco News and showed how the price of gold has historically correlated with the expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. We’ve already seen the balance sheet balloon by over $3 trillion in response to the coronavirus pandemic and it currently stands at over $7 trillion. Holmes said he thinks the central bank will likely grow its balance sheet to $10 trillion before all is said and done. Given the historical trends, that’s extremely bullish for gold.

In the next three years, if we look back, if [history] repeats itself, from 2008, 2009 to 2011, that three year run from ’09 saw gold go from a $750 – $800 range up to $1,900. If we forecast that because we have the same expansion of the balance sheet of the Fed then it would project, if cycles are exactly the same, gold could go to $4,000.”

Holmes said there was a significant difference in the run-up to the 2008 crash and the years leading up to the current crisis. Before ’08, G20 finance ministers and government agencies were generally pro-growth and pro-trade. Ever since the ’08 crash, policy has revolved around synchronized taxation and regulation.

Now it’s synchronized money printing, monetary, fiscal stimulus that we’ve never seen.”

Consider this: when Alan Greenspan left the Fed, the central bank’s balance sheet was about 6% of GDP. Today, it has risen to 33%.

And this is how much money that Powell has to throw at this because of the coronavirus and the synchronized shutdown of the world. This is unprecedented. So, I think hard assets trade higher.”

Holmes used the word “unprecedented” to describe the Fed’s actions several times during the interview. He noted that the central bank has gone far beyond the QE programs during the Great Recession and is now buying corporate ETF’s and even individual corporate bonds.

They’re doing everything to maintain interest rates, not just corporately, but also from the government, low and negative so they can get this economic engine turning. And I think bad news ends up being good news when you look at the world of gold because the government is going to continue to print money.”

Peter Schiff has been warning we’re on the verge of a dollar crisis, recently saying, “There is nothing to stop the dollar from collapsing.” Holmes agrees with Peter. He didn’t use the term “dollar crisis,” but he did say he expects the greenback to see “a correction adversely related” to the $4,000 run in gold.

Holmes also said he sees price inflation in our future.

I think what will happen is the government will be slow and reluctant to raise rates while CPI trades higher, and therefore more and more government bonds have negative real rates of return. And remember, I said to synchronize, the cartel, the G20 finance ministers, that means we’re going to get a scenario which is greater than last August when there’s so much negative real bonds around the world. That will soar gold over $2,000. … I think by Christmas.”

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0736/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0766   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 23.16 POINTS OR 0.78%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 125.91 POINTS OR 0.52%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 293.10 POINTS OR 1.33%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 97.72/Euro FALLS TO 1.1203

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.76/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 39.28 and Brent: 41.27

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.48%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.25% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.45%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.73: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.20

3k Gold at $1767.90 silver at: 17.86   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 107/100 in roubles/dollar) 71.08

3m oil into the 39 dollar handle for WTI and 41 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.76 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9507 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0647 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.48%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.63% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.379%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.8549..

Futures Flat On Last Day Of Best Quarter In 22 Years

There was some sound and fury in a very illiquid overnight session, which ended up signifying nothing, and futures were little changed from their Monday closing ramp as markets puts a close to the best quarter for stocks since 1998.

The MSCI world equity index was up about 0.1% in early trading after Asian shares rose on strong data from the U.S. housing market and Chinese factories. European shares continued the rally.  S&P futures fluctuated and the dollar index strengthened to a one-month high amid concern that new virus infections could slow the pace of business re-openings.

 

Overnight sentiment fizzled after Australia’s Victoria state said it would shutter 10 areas in the metropolis of Melbourne. Arizona also ordered a number of establishments including gyms to close for 30 days and New Jersey halted plans for indoor dining. However, this latest gloom was quickly forgotten shortly after Europe reopened and the magical overnight futures levitation kicked in right on schedule.

“Renewed shutdowns of economic activity would bring additional market volatility,” said Kristina Hooper, the chief global market strategist at Invesco in New York. “But importantly, we do not expect the same draconian shut-down measures as seen earlier in the year.”

After new cases of the coronavirus trended lower in May, they climbed again in June, denting investors’ enthusiasm that the U.S. economy would recovery relatively quickly from the crisis. Investor enthusiasm had been driven in part by recent economic data that were better than expected.

 

A spike in virus infections in Southern and Western states last week spooked investors. Florida, Texas, California and Arizona, which were the top four states with the most new cases, account for nearly a third of U.S. economic output. California’s government on Sunday ordered bars in several counties to close due to the coronavirus rebound, while San Francisco put plans to reopen businesses on hold.

Los Angeles has become a new epicenter in the pandemic as coronavirus cases and hospitalizations surge there despite California Governor Gavin Newsom’s orders requiring bars to close and residents to wear masks in nearly all public spaces. The World Health Organization (WHO) will “read carefully” a Chinese study on a new flu virus found in pigs, a spokesman said, adding that the findings underscored the importance of influenza surveillance during the current pandemic.

“Asset markets are looking beyond COVID stats,” said Neil Jones, head of FX sales at Mizuho Bank. “There’s some expectation of containment and then, further down the line, an expectation of some form of measure to combat the virus.”

Anyway, back to markets, where Uber climbed in pre-market trading after reports that the company is in talks to buy Postmates as a consolation prize after it failed to acquire Grub Hub. Boeing, which idiotically surged yesterday on trials of the 737 MAX airplane which nobody will want to fly in, slipped after one of its biggest European customers scrapped its $10.6 billion purchase deal.

European shares edged up, with the Euro STOXX 600 up 0.1% in early trading having been relatively range-bound for the past two weeks. Germany’s DAX was up 0.3%.  London’s FTSE 100 was down 0.6%. Britain’s economy shrank by the most since 1979 in early 2020 as households slashed their spending, according to official data that included the first few days of the lockdown. Annual inflation in the Euro area accelerated to 0.3% in June from a four-year low of 0.1% in May, beating forecasts for no change and supporting the European Central Bank’s expectation that a negative reading may be avoided.

Earlier in the session,  Asian stocks gained, led by materials and communications, after falling in the last session. The Topix gained 0.6%, with EJ HD and DVX rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8%, with Xinjiang Yilu Wanyuan Industrial Investment and Chengtun Mining posting the biggest advances. China’s parliament passed national security legislation for Hong Kong in response to last year’s pro-democracy protests. The United States, Britain and other Western governments have said the legislation erodes the autonomy the city was granted at its 1997 handover. Market reaction was limited.

While the latest stronger than expected Chinese PMI print added to reopening optimism…

 

…  some investors are questioning the rally that has carried global stock benchmarks higher. The MSCI All Country World Index is up about 18% this quarter and just 10% below its February record high, the biggest advance in a decade. Yet the World Health Organization warned that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is still to come. As a result, investors are parsing an array of factors that could weigh on stocks in the months ahead, including potential delays in reopening parts of the U.S. economy and sky-high stock valuations.

 

The S&P 500’s strongest quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 1998 — during the dot-com boom — was driven by gains in April and May, followed by an overall flat June after Wall Street gave back gains in the second half of the month.

In FX, the dollar advanced against all its Group-of-10 peers amid quarter-end positioning and as investors tracked a resurgence in coronavirus infections. The dollar got a boost while the Aussie swung to a loss as the Australia’s second-most populous state imposed a lockdown in some areas for four weeks, while also diverting flights for a shorter period; other risk-sensitive currencies reacted in a similar fashion.

“I would expect overall dollar demand to continue as we go into July,” Mizuho’s Neil Jones said. “If there’s a summer lull then we may see a dollar sell-off into the elections but as we run up to the end of the year I would expect to see a resurgence of dollar demand,” he added.

The euro was down around 0.3% against the dollar, at $1.1208, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars also edged down. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are set to end the best quarter against the greenback since the financial crisis; Sweden’s krona and Norway’s krone are heading for their best quarter against the euro in a decade or more.

In rates, Treasuries were steady ahead of a slew of Fed speakers. European peripheral spreads widened as Bunds popped through Monday’s best levels, however Italian bonds advanced as a sale of 10-year debt saw the highest oversubscription rate since 2012. Copper rose above $6,000 a ton for the first time since January.

In commodities, oil prices slipped as traders took profits after sharp gains the previous session and Libya’s state oil company flagged progress in talks to resume exports, potentially boosting supply. Prices then recovered partially. WTI was down 0.6% at $39.15 a barrel, having hit as low as $39.00, while Brent crude slipped 0.6% to $41.16 per barrel.

Looking at today’s calendar, expected data include Chicago PMI. FedEx reports earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 3,045.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 358.75
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 157.99
  • MXAPJ up 0.7% to 513.21
  • Nikkei up 1.3% to 22,288.14
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,558.77
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 24,427.19
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 2,984.67
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 35,128.74
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.4% to 5,897.88
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,108.33
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to -0.478%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1221
  • Brent futures down 0.7% to $41.44/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.17%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.47%
  • Brent futures down 1.2% to $41.22/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,771.15
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.18% to 97.70

Top Overnight News

  • China’s top legislative body approved a landmark national security law for Hong Kong, a sweeping attempt to quell dissent that drew fresh U.S. retaliation and could endanger the city’s appeal as a financial hub
  • Boris Johnson will confirm his commitment to spending billions of pounds on infrastructure to rebuild the coronavirus-ravaged U.K. economy in a major speech on Tuesday, arguing that balancing the books must wait until recovery is secure
  • Bets that the Federal Reserve will implement yield-curve control sooner rather than later are showing up in positioning data and the curve itself
  • Germany is paving the way for a green bond revolution in Europe by announcing it will sell its first government-backed securities later this year
  • Some of Germany’s furloughed workers are beginning to return to work full time, according to a survey by the Ifo Institute
  • Prices in the euro area rose 0.3% in June from a year ago, according to preliminary data, versus a 0.2% estimate, as economies across the bloc allowed more businesses to reopen
  • France risks losing control of its debts unless the government overhauls its long- term fiscal policy, according to the national auditor

Asian equity markets traded higher as the region took its cue from the firm performance on Wall St which was attributed to several factors including technical buying in the S&P 500 around the 3000 level and encouraging comments by Fed Chair Powell who suggested the US economy entered an important new phase sooner than expected and that recent economic data offers some positive signs, while better than expected Chinese PMI figures also contributed to the overnight optimism. ASX 200 (+1.4%) was lifted from the open with upside in Australia led by firm gains in energy and strength in the top weighted financials sector, with industrials also inspired by the outperformance of their counterparts stateside after Boeing shares soared by double digits as it began 737 MAX test flights. Nikkei 225 (+1.3%) was underpinned as recent favourable currency moves helped participants overlook the soft data which showed the weakest Industrial Production since March 2009 and highest Unemployment Rate in 3 years. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) were also positive after Chinese Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI both topped estimates, but with gains capped following another PBoC liquidity drain and after China’s legislature reportedly passed the Hong Kong security bill as expected. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded lower to test support at the 152.00 level as the gains in riskier assets sapped haven demand which also resulted in the 40yr yield rising to its highest since March last year, while weaker results at the 2yr JGB auction further weighed on prices.

Top Asian News

  • BOJ’s Bond Purchases Signal Japan’s Curve to Steepen Further
  • CAR Inc Surges 17%, Sparks Speculation of Progress in Stake Sale
  • BOJ Widens Buying Ranges for Bonds Due Up to 10 Yrs in July Plan

Another day of volatile price action across the equity-sphere but European bourses are ultimately negative [Euro Stoxx -0.1%] as the risk appetite seen during APAC hours petered out on month/quarter and HY-end, where Citi’s month-end model shows a relatively strong signal for a rotation out of European and Japanese stocks into bonds, specifically US, Asian and Canadian. Furthermore, markets could also be bracing for a rise in COVID case-counts as the weekend effect dissipates. Add to that the passage of the Hong Kong security law which is likely to face international pushback, namely from the US, UK and the EU, albeit the latter two have previously signalled a more balanced approach to the situation given their preferability for a Chinese partnership. It’s also worth bearing in mind that Germany will take the EU presidency from tomorrow and have previously hinted at the tougher stance against China. For refence, Eurex suffered an outage overnight for several hours. Nonetheless, European stocks saw a bout of buying immediately after the cash open – somewhat mimicking yesterday’s actions – before gains again subsided. Sectors are now mixed after earlier flow rotated into defensives from cyclicals shortly after the open. The detailed breakdown sees Tech holding its position in the green on the back of Micron’s (+4% pre-mkt) after-market earnings in which guidance was upgraded – thus propping up European peers STMicroelectronics (+1.8%), Dialog Semiconductor (+1.9%), Micro Focus (+0.8%) and Infineon (+0.3%). Banks are on the other end of the spectrum amid lower yields and after Wells Fargo (-1.8%), the fourth largest bank State-side, opted to cut its Q3 dividend when it reports earnings on July 14th. In terms of individual movers, Wirecard (+96%) shares feel some reprieve after UK FCA lifted restrictions on the Co’s UK arm. Meanwhile, Novartis (-1.0%), the likely culprit for losses in the Healthcare sector, remains pressured after the Canadian federal court dismissed a plea by drug makers, including Co., challenging the government’s new regulation aimed at lowering prices of patented drugs.

Top European News

  • Shell to Write Down Up to $22 Billion as Virus Hits Big Oil
  • Boris Johnson Vows ‘New Deal’ to Rebuild Britain After Virus
  • Hedge Funds Score Big Gains on Dividend Bets That Hurt Banks

In FX, the Dollar may yet succumb to bearish rebalancing flows around daily fixes, but more pronounced weakness in major currency rivals is keeping the index afloat around 97.500 and close to a new 97.774 peak amidst waning risk appetite on the final day of June, Q2 and the first half of 2020. Moreover, the Greenback has maintained momentum following Monday’s positive US data (pending home sales) and a slightly more upbeat economic assessment via the text of a speech to be delivered by Fed chair Powell to the House later today.

  • NOK/NZD/AUD – Another downturn in crude prices has undermined the Norwegian Krona’s revival, while the Kiwi and Aussie have pulled back from overnight highs after the latter failed to sustain post-Chinese PMI gains on reports that 10 sectors of Melbourne are returning to lockdown and some suburbs may be on the verge of being ordered to stay at home. Eur/Nok has rebounded from sub-10.9000 towards 10.9500, Nzd/Usd has lost grip of the 0.6400 handle and Aud/Usd is back below 0.6850 after fading ahead of 0.6900 where a hefty 1.4 bn option expiry resides.
  • GBP/EUR/CAD – Also weaker vs the Buck, as Cable languishes below 1.2300 in wake of weaker than expected UK Q1 GDP awaiting further BoE commentary via Haldane and Cunliffe, while the Euro is only just holding up above 1.1200 and the 100 DMA (1.1205) in the midst of big expiries either side of the round number, and with Eur/Usd one of the only exceptions to the modest sell Dollar for portfolio mantra over month/quarter/half year end. Elsewhere, the Loonie is trying to keep its head above 1.3700 in advance of Canadian GDP for April and the first full month of COVID-19 contagion.
  • CHF/JPY – Relative G10 ‘outperformers’ or at least showing more resilience than others due to underlying safe-haven demand and for the Yen in particular reports of RHS Usd/Jpy interest that is seen gathering pace, if not peaking in the run up to 4 pm London time. However, a weaker than forecast Swiss KOF survey has offset a rebound in retail sales, while Japanese ip missed consensus and the jobless rate hit a 3 year high.
  • EM – Some respite for the Rand via SA Q1 GDP contracting considerably less than anticipated, as Usd/Zar pares back from nearly 17.4000, albeit still higher in line with peers against the backdrop of fragile risk sentiment and broad Dollar strength. Conversely, the Rouble is still underperforming and jittery on the last day of voting for/against the new Russian convention before Wednesday’s national holiday, with Usd/Rub hovering just shy of 70.9000, and Eur/Pln is firmer following a surprise rebound in Polish CPI.

In commodities, A downbeat session thus far for the oil complex as stocks hold onto losses as with global economies re-imposing some targeted lockdowns amid local flare-ups in COVID-19 cases, with Australia’s Victoria state the latest to re-introduce stay-at-home orders across 10 postcodes. Negativity also arises from the passage of the Hong Kong Security Bill, poised to be implemented tomorrow. WTI Aug resides near session lows, just north of the USD 39/bbl mark (vs. high 39.80/bbl), whilst Brent Sep trades on either side of USD 41.50/bbl, off its USD 41.80/bbl high. Looking ahead, price action will likely be dictated by COVID-related headlines in the absence of anti-China flare-ups over the National Security Bill ahead of the weekly Private Inventory numbers . Elsewhere, spot gold remains within recent ranges between USD 1768-1774/oz as markets eye portfolio rebalancing. Copper prices meanwhile gained overnight amid broader upside in APAC stocks and with supply concerns still on trader’s minds.

US Event Calendar

  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.5%, prior 0.47%;  CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 3.8%, prior 3.92%;
  • 9:45am: MNI Chicago PMI, est. 45, prior 32.3
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 91.4, prior 86.6; Expectations, prior 96.9; Present Situation, prior 71.1

Central Bank Speakers

  • 11am: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Central Banking in the Age of Covid
  • 11:05am: Fed’s Brainard Discusses a Decade of Dodd- Frank
  • 12:30pm: Powell and Mnuchin Speak Before House Financial Panel
  • 2pm: Fed’s Bostic and Kashkari Takes Part in Panel on Diversity

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the last day of the first half of 2020. We’ll have our usual month, quarter and YTD (H1) performance review out tomorrow. As H1 draws to a close, equity markets yesterday resolutely looked past the negative headlines from the US and abroad on the coronavirus, choosing to focus on some better than expected economic data. However it’s quite clear from yesterday that there will be hiccups to come in terms of re-openings. In New York City, Mayor de Blasio said that the city might slow the restart of indoor dining, which is currently scheduled to be reopened from July 6, given the spread seen elsewhere. Concurrently, the New York Times reported that Broadway would remain closed for the N this year, with other large cultural venues such as the Metropolitan Museum and Lincoln Center likely to delay opening until later in the summer even if the city gives them a green light. Over in Florida, cases continued to grow, with the state seeing a further 3.7% increase (weekly average of 5.5%), and parts of the state are now indicating they will make mask wearing mandatory. Florida’s slight drop in case growth was seen elsewhere in US. Cases rose by 1.5% overall, compared to the 1.6% weekly average, but the weekend effect was clearly seen in some states. Arizona saw cases rise by 0.8%, but cited a clerical error, where one lab didn’t submit a report to the state’s record keepers. This compounded by the lower testing capacity that we have seen across the US over the weekend likely means there will be a sharp revision in the next couple of days.

Our US Chief Economist, Matthew Luzzetti, released a new video yesterday where he assesses whether the recent deterioration in covid trends across many states led to a retrenchment in economic activity even prior to official rollback of reopenings. A link to video and report are here.

Looking elsewhere, reports continued to be concerning, with Iran reporting its highest number of daily fatalities since the outbreak began, with 162 new deaths in 24 hours. New cases in India continue to grow rapidly, at roughly 3.8% per day on average over the past month, while South America as a whole is now seeing over 40,000 new cases per day with the largest countries yet to see a meaningful drop in new cases. However reported fatalities remain relatively contained given caseloads in those regions. With around 280 fatalities per 1 million residents, Chile, Brazil, and Peru are well below the US (388), UK (642), and Italy (575), however they do trail Germany (108) and Canada (225).

Even against this worrisome virus backdrop, global equity markets rallied following a rather lackluster start to the day as economic data from the US came in stronger than expected and turned the session around. The S&P 500 closed up +1.47%, which as it stands puts the index just one day away from its strongest quarterly performance on a total returns basis since Q4 1998. And that comes after a first quarter that was the worst since Q4 2008, so it’s fair to say we’ve had an eventful few months in financial markets. There may have been some quarter-end rebalancing at work as well given the over +0.5% move in the last 10 minutes of US trading – typical of quarter end type price action. Tech stocks just slightly underperformed, with the NASDAQ up +1.20%, while the Dow Jones climbed +2.32% as Boeing surged +14.43% (best S&P performer on the day) following the weekend announcement that the Federal Aviation Administration had approved some test flights for the 737 Max. Europe lagged slightly as it missed the afternoon rally in New York. The Stoxx 600 gained +0.44%, even while some of the individual bourses were higher. The DAX (+1.18%), IBEX (+1.39%) and FTSEMIB (+1.69%) all outperformed the index.

Other risk assets also benefited from the sudden turn in sentiment yesterday, including commodities. Oil prices recovered from their losses earlier in the session to move higher, with Brent (+1.68%) and WTI (+3.14 %) both advancing, while copper rose +0.77% to a 5-month high as well. Over in fixed income, yields on 10yr Treasuries fell a further -1.8bps to 0.623%, which is their lowest level in over 6 weeks. And in the UK, yields on both 2yr and 5yr gilts fell to a record low as they inched deeper into negative territory.

Asian markets have followed Wall Street’s lead this morning with the Nikkei (+1.67%), Hang Seng (+0.89%), Shanghai Comp (+0.58%), Kospi (+1.74%) and ASX (+1.39%) all up. Meanwhile, futures on the S&P 500 are up a more modest +0.22%.

In terms of the main headlines overnight, China’s NPC has passed the new Hong Kong security law, expected to become effective from July 1. The SCMP has reported that Hong Kong’s Basic Law committee is expected to meet immediately to discuss insertion into Annex III of the city’s mini-constitution. Xinhua, the official state news agency, is expected to publish the details at some point today, marking the first time the law will be fully disclosed to the public.

Prior to that, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that regulations affording preferential treatment to Hong Kong over China, including the availability of export license exceptions, are to be suspended while adding “further actions to eliminate differential treatment are also being evaluated”. He also said, “with the Chinese Communist Party’s imposition of new security measures on Hong Kong, the risk that sensitive U.S. technology will be diverted to the People’s Liberation Army or Ministry of State Security has increased, all while undermining the territory’s autonomy.”

Meanwhile, we’ve also had the latest PMIs out of China which surprised to the upside. The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 (vs. 50.5 expected and 50.6 last month) while the non-manufacturing PMI printed at 54.4 (vs. 53.6 expected and 53.6 last month) which left the composite at 54.2 (vs. 53.4 last month). Encouragingly, there was a broad improvement in the details for the manufacturing PMI with output, new orders and new export orders all rising from last month.

The other overnight story has come from here in the UK, with Bloomberg reporting that PM Johnson will announce £5bn of accelerated spending today in roads, schools and hospitals while promising to publish a strategy for further capital spending in the fall. The report further added that in a briefing note about the speech, Johnson’s office has said decisions over increasing taxes or cutting services to pay for the debt will have to wait. The report also added that UK’s Chancellor Sunak is poised to make an economic statement next week.

Back to yesterday. When referencing the EU Recovery plan in a joint press conference with President Macron, Chancellor Merkel made it clear the “talks won’t fail because of us, but there will be no new proposal.” This is not necessarily a negative coming from the two biggest proponents of an extensive continent-wide recovery proposal, as the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, is the one trying to craft a compromise proposal based on the original Merkel-Macron plan. All 27 EU members will convene in Brussels on July 17 to continue hammering out the details of the nearly €750bn plan. Ahead of their press conference, continental sovereign bonds were steady yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.2bps), OATs (+0.5bps) and BTPs (+0.6bps) seeing relatively little movement.

While we’re on Europe, it’s worth mentioning a couple of ECB headlines in the light of the recent German constitutional court ruling on their asset purchases. One was a letter from ECB President Lagarde to an MEP which said that the ECB Governing Council had received a request earlier this month from the Bundesbank President “to authorise the disclosure by the Deutsche Bundesbank of non-public documents that show how the ECB has assessed and continues to assess the proportionality of the PSPP and of all its instruments of monetary policy.” It said that the Governing Council had accommodated the request and authorised them to disclose these to the German government, who in turn can share the documents with the German Parliament. This followed a report from FAZ earlier in the day that German finance minister Scholz had told the Bundestag President that the Bundesbank was “permitted to continue to participate in the implementation and execution” of the PSPP since the demands of the German constitutional court had been fulfilled.

Staying with Europe, yesterday our UK team put out a note looking at the state of play in the Brexit negotiations (link here ), and whether there’s room for a deal in the remaining time before the end of the year. Their view is that although the UK has said it wants to complete a deal by the end of the summer, the bar for this remains high. And with a deal also needing time for ratification, it could be that late October/early November becomes the real deadline. On balance, they still see a deal as the more likely outcome, with space for compromise in many of the key areas slowly emerging.

Looking at yesterday’s data releases, in Germany the EU-harmonised CPI reading rose to +0.8% in June, which was above expectations for a +0.6% reading, and up from its nearly-four year low of +0.5% back in May. Meanwhile the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the Euro Area rose to 75.7 (vs. 80.0 expected), which was the second successive increase from April’s low, but still well below the 103.4 reading recorded back in February. And over in the US the data surprised to the upside, with pending home sales rebounding by +44.3% month-on-month in May, well above the +19.3% rebound expected, while the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity also beat expectations to rise to -6.1 (vs. -21.4 expected).

To the day ahead now, and one of the main highlights will be the appearance of Fed Chair Powell and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin before the House Financial Services Committee. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the BoE’s Haldane and Cunliffe, the Fed’s Williams and Kashkari, and the ECB’s Schnabel and de Guindos. In terms of data, we’ll get the flash June CPI reading for the Euro Area, along with the preliminary June CPI for France and Italy as well. Otherwise, there’ll be Canada’s GDP for April, and from the US we have the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading for June and the MNI Chicago PMI for June.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.16 POINTS OR 0.78%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 125.91 POINTS OR 0.52%   /The Nikkei closed UP 293.10 POINTS OR 1.33%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.45%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 7.0736 /Oil UP TO 39.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.27 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 7.0736 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0766 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY PAST 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

HONG KONG/USA
USA now officially revokes Hong Kong’s special status
(zerohedge)

US Officially Revokes Hong Kong’s Special Status

While it was just a formality at this point, after the US revealed several weeks ago that it would strip Hong Kong of its special trade now that China’s is set to impose its new security law as soon as tomorrow, moments ago US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, issued a statement advising China that Hong Kong’s special status is officially revoked.

“With the Chinese Communist Party’s imposition of new security measures on Hong Kong, the risk that sensitive U.S. technology will be diverted to the People’s Liberation Army or Ministry of State Security has increased, all while undermining the territory’s autonomy. Those are risks the U.S. refuses to accept and have resulted in the revocation of Hong Kong’s special status.”

As a result, the Commerce Department said that “regulations affording preferential treatment to Hong Kong over China, including the availability of export license exceptions, are suspended.” Ross also said that “further actions to eliminate differential treatment are also being evaluated” and urged Beijing to “immediately reverse course and fulfill the promises it has made to the people of Hong Kong and the world.”

Needless to say, and have said it many times in the past, China will not be happy, but so far both sides have shown a willingness to contain themselves to merely jawboning and verbal fireworks instead of escalating and jeopardizing the fragile economic truce between the two nations. That, however, may change in the coming months as the November elections approach.

 

END
CHINA/HONG KONG/USA
Chinese President Xi signs the National Security law for Hong Kong
(zerohedge)

Chinese President Xi Signs National Security Law For Hong Kong

China’s top legislative body passed, and president Xi signed, a new controversial law for Hong Kong that would allow authorities to crack down on pro-democracy protesters and “foreign forces” who attempt to destabilize the semi-autonomous region, reported Reuters. The National People’s Congress Standing Committee swiftly approved the landmark national security law on Tuesday, signaling Communist Party leader Xi Jinping’s desire to seize more control to squash pro-democracy protests in the city to stop subversion, terrorism, separatism, and collusion with external forces.

The new law could jeopardize civil liberties and Hong Kong’s independent judicial system, which has allowed the financial hub to thrive over the decades economically. President Donald Trump warned he would disband Hong Kong’s preferential trade status – and in response to the passage of the law in the overnight hours – Washington released a headline indicating it will bar the export of weapons and sensitive technology to the city.

The most significant penalty under the new law is life imprisonment – something that will likely deter protesters from organizing on city streets.

Sure enough, famous HK pro-democracy protester Joshua Wong tweeted: “It [new law] marks the end of Hong Kong that the world knew before.” Conversely, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam told the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva that the international community must “respect our country’s right to safeguard national security.”

AFP’s Xinqi Su tweeted the new law is expected to go into effect later today.

The international condemnation to the passage was swift: British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said he was “deeply concerned by unconfirmed reports that Beijing has passed the national security law.” Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga described the passage of the national security law as “regrettable.”

On Monday, a diplomatic tit-for-tat with the US, China announced it would impose visa restrictions on US government officials who “behave egregiously” in connection to Hong Kong affairs. This followed Washington’s decision last week to restrict visas for Chinese government officials who threaten Hong Kong’s autonomy.

Hang Seng futures were unchanged on the session amid the passage of the new law.

“Hong Kong stocks pared an advance Tuesday as investors awaited details of the legislation. Property companies were among the biggest losers on the MSCI Hong Kong Index, which gave up a gain of almost 1% before closing up 0.7%,” Bloomberg noted.

The new security law and tit-for-tat visa restrictions come as tensions between Beijing and Washington are soaring over trade deal purchase commitments, origins of the virus pandemic, and territory disputes in the South China Sea.

end
CHINA
We have a new flu virus emanating from China and it has a “pandemic potential”
(zerohedge)

New Flu Virus With “Pandemic Potential” Emerges In China

Roughly half a million Chinese living in Hebei Province (not Hubei, Hebei), a province in northern China that surrounds Beijing (which operates as an independent ‘national city’) are under lockdown, but in an effort to try to convey just how prepared Chinese public health officials are for another outbreak (keep in mind, the WHO’s “independent” delegation of investigators is expected to arrive in China next week) they’ve warned every English-language media outlet that will listen that officials have identified another potentially pandemic-quality flu pathogen.

 

According to the BBC, Chinese scientists have identified a new strain of flu that has “the potential to become a pandemic”. It emerged recently in China’s already-dwindling pig population, but scientists say it can infect humans, which would make it similar to the H1N1 virus that spread across Asia and made it all the way to North America in a short-lived pandemic.

Among other factors, scientists have credited the natural human immunity to flu viruses, built up in elderly people over decades, for stopping H1N1 from becoming the global pandemic that many scientists feared. In fact, the extremely dire warnings about that virus, which never came to pass, partially contributed – one could argue – to the complacent attitude in the US toward viruses spreading from China.

For those who haven’t been paying attention, China is only just starting to recover from a devastating outbreak of “pig ebola” – a particularly deadly strain of swine flu – that wiped out ~1/3rd of China’s pig population.

The team of scientists published their findings in a medical journal where they could be sure that science and health-care reporters would find it.

The researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.

While it is not an immediate problem, they say, it has “all the hallmarks” of being highly adapted to infect humans and needs close monitoring.

As it’s new, people could have little or no immunity to the virus.

The scientists write in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that measures to control the virus in pigs, and the close monitoring of swine industry workers, should be swiftly implemented.

But how worried should we be? The third-party ‘expert’ quoted by the BBC explained that the global medical community must be ever-vigilant toward new viral threats. Though since this virus hasn’t yet infected humans, it would seem pretty early in the process to get all hysterical.

The virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1, can grow and multiply in the cells that line the human airways.

They found evidence of recent infection in people who worked in abattoirs and the swine industry in China when they looked at data from 2011 to 2018.

Current flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed.

Prof Kin-Chow Chang, who works at Nottingham University in the UK, told the BBC: “Right now we are distracted with coronavirus and rightly so. But we must not lose sight of potentially dangerous new viruses.”

While this new virus is not an immediate problem, he says: “We should not ignore it.”

In theory, a flu pandemic could occur at any time, but they are still rare events. Pandemics happen if a new strain emerges that can easily spread from person to person.

Although flu viruses are constantly changing – which is why the flu vaccine also needs to change regularly to keep up – they do not usually go pandemic.

Prof James Wood, head of the Department of Veterinary Medicine at the University of Cambridge, said the work “comes as a salutary reminder” that we are constantly at risk of new emergence of pathogens, and that farmed animals, with which humans have greater contact than with wildlife, may act as the source for important pandemic viruses.

  • WHO SPOKESMAN SAYS CHINA STUDY ON NEW VIRUS IN PIGS SHOWS “WE CANNOT LET OUT GUARD DOWN” ON INFLUENZA DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC

But before we get carried away speculating about this new pandemic, how about we first figure out how things went so badly wrong during the early days of the last one?

end

CHINA

Chinese manufacturing contracts, employment contracts and demand disappoints.  All of this despite a PMI beat.

(zerohedge)

China Manufacturing Employment Contracts, Demand Disappoints Despite Headline PMIs Beat

In a sign that China’s massive stimulus injections as the nation reopens are working, tonight’s PMIs both rose from May and beat expectations.

  • The government’s official Manufacturing PMI rose from 50.6 to 50.9 (beating expectations of 50.5)
  • The government’s official Services PMI rose from 53.6 to 54.4 (beating expectations of 53.6)

However, as Bloomberg report, while parts of the economy have recovered from the virus shutdowns, there’s an apparent divergence between demand and supply – factories and companies have returned and output is growing again, but exports and domestic retail sales are shrinking (and manufacturing employment fell back into contraction at 49.1).

“While work restart levels are high, the recovery of demand has been slow, weighing on the pace of improvement in industrial production,” Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank Co in Shanghai, wrote in a report this week.

Additionally, a separate PMI indicator that gauges China’s high-tech industries slowed significantly this month. The Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers’ index fell to 51.4 this month from 55.9 in May, according to the bank, citing a research firm connected to the Federation of Logistics & Purchasing that compiled the data.

“The new export orders sub-index remained low at 32.6 in June, unchanged from May and April, suggesting sustained headwinds from overseas markets,” Nomura economists led by Lu Ting wrote in a report.

The surge in exports of coronavirus-related medical supplies is largely due to price rises, which is “likely unsustainable,” they wrote.

“We expect a bumpy recovery path filled with uncertainty, as China is caught between domestic policy stimulus, remaining social distancing rules and slumping external demand,” according to the report.

One possible caveat for the lack of momentum is that severe flooding in southern China may also have slowed the pace of production in some areas, and a recent flare-up of the coronavirus has also hit confidence.

END
Michael Every on the important aspects of the days events… China/USA/Hong Kong/Japan/USA
(Michael Every..

Rabobank: “We Have Entered An Important New Phase”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

New Deals

End of June; end of Q2; end of H1; and the end of unrest in Hong Kong – or the end of Hong Kong as Hong Kong, depending on what you read. Lots of things for markets to ponder today against a backdrop of equities once again soaring and yet bond yields staying low: while the US 10-year is at 0.63% at time of writing, up 1bp, and vs. a 2020 low of 0.54%, the US 5-year is at its lowest ever at 0.28%.

In the US, Fed Chair Powell yesterday released the prepared comments to be used in his joint testimony –with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin– to Congress today. In them he noted: “We have entered an important new phase and have done so sooner than expected,” yet mentions extraordinary uncertainty” over the outlook. On that note, it’s unclear if the “new phase” refers to the economic rebound or the virus second wave. (I joke: he refers to the economy, but underlines there is no true recovery without getting Covid under control. Even then, perhaps not: AirBnB’s CEO has just made some extremely gloomy comments on the outlook for the global travel industry, for example: “I will go on record to say that travel will never, ever go back to the way it was pre-Covid: it just won’t.”)

The Capitol Hill questions for Powell and Mnuchin today are obviously going to revolve around what happens next: specifically, how much more fiscally, and on what? With US unemployment support about to end in weeks, part of that answer would appear to be a no-brainer. Yet look at some of the US headlines today and so is the apparent push for a US troop escalation in Afghanistan in order to fight Russia. Regardless of where the stimulus goes, markets will want to see signs that more is coming. Soon. That’s true everywhere: UK PM Boris Johnson, who also wants to taper furlough support in weeks, is now trying to ape FDR rather than Churchill, declaring a British “New Deal” – which critics allege does not offer a great deal of new money. Let’s see if he can get the economy to take off as Leicester is locked down (again).

Meanwhile, the phrase “We have entered an important new phase and have done so sooner than expected” also applies to Hong Kong, where Beijing this morning passed the new national security law for it, which will be effective from tomorrow – when a mass public protest in defiance is possible. It would be nice to give you some details of the law – but we have as few as Hong Kong CEO Carrie Lam. All that is known at this stage is that the legislation will incur life imprisonment for certain transgressions; and that just before the law was passed the US formally revoked Hong Kong’s special status. Moreover:

  • China has threatened to revoke visas for US officials wanting to visit Hong Kong, mirroring US restrictions on Chinese officials in the US – to which Secretary of State Pompeo has tweeted: “We will not be deterred from taking action to respond”;
  • Hong Kong political activist Joshua Wong, among others, has just tweeted he has withdrawn from pro-democracy political group Demosisto; and
  • Chinese imports of soybeans from Brazil were up 41% y/y to 8.86m tonnes in May while from the US they were down 50% y/y to 491K tonnes. Seasonal patterns play a role, but a whole lot of buying from the US is needed in H2 to keep on track with the phase one trade deal.

Of course, this is all being entirely shrugged off in Hong Kong markets. Indeed, China just announced the partial relaxation of capital controls between it and the mainland to try to boost its role as a financial hub. Specifically, HK can now offer wealth management services to rich mainlanders in the Pearl River Delta –those who lacked the initiative to get their gains into it anyway– which means CNY inflows, perhaps. Hong Kongers will be able to buy (opaque) financial products sold by Chinese banks meaning, if people bite, HKD (hence USD) flowing north. None of this answers questions about how HK will cope with no USD flowing *in* and/or USD flowing out, should US sanctions be imposed. As noted, this is being shrugged off “because it would be too damaging for the US”. Recall the same being said about US tariffs on China, and on Chinese action on Hong Kong?

Or Brexit, where face-to-face talks have begun in Brussels. Expect much talk of “level-playing fields” and fish.

We have entered an important new phase and have done so sooner than expected” also applies to India-China, where both sides continue to escalate at various points along their long border. Trade relations are suffering further too as 59 Chinese apps are banned as “prejudicial to the sovereignty and integrity of India”. For his part, the Global Times editor is doing his usual exacerbatory job, tweeting: “Well, even if Chinese people want to boycott Indian products, they can’t really find many Indian goods. Indian friends, you need to have some things that are more important than nationalism.” And *that* is why the Indian press says not only does India not want in to the RCEP trade deal, but that it does not want to be reliant on China at all.

Which means more lifting for the Chinese domestic market – where data remain mixed. The June PMIs show a mixed bag. Manufacturing was 50.9, up m/m and slightly above consensus. New orders were 51.4 (again up), as were new export orders, albeit at a weak 42.6; but inventories at 46.8 were down, and so was employment at 49.1. The non-manufacturing PMI was 54.4 (also up), but while employment at 48.7 was higher on the month it still means jobs are being shed.

Japanese data today also underline the depth of the Q2 downturn: industrial production came in at -8.4% m/m vs -5.9% consensus and -25.9% y/y. Likewise, ANZ NZ business confidence was still -34.4 in June vs. -41.8 in May despite the virus having been beaten locally; and Aussie private-sector credit dropped 0.1% m/m in May vs a flat consensus and was 3.2% y/y, down from 3.6%, which will not help propel growth ahead.

In short, the month, quarter, and half-year all end with the virus mostly rampant and the economy mostly being propped up by fiscal stimulus we mostly aren’t guaranteed to see extended with new deals, as all the while geopolitics getting decidedly uglier. Yet markets are relying on their own unique take on the economy – and their take-away from central banks.

Oh, and a Great White shark warning has been issued for Cape Cod. Because we apparently needed more The-Mayor-of-Amity-saying-“Those beaches will be open for this weekend” memes.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

European banks

What the 3 major risks to Europeans banks face in the coming months

(Daniel Lacalle)

Three Risks For European Banks

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The measures implemented by governments in the Eurozone have one common denominator: A massive increase in debt from governments and the private sector. Loans lead the stimulus packages from Germany to Spain. The objective is to give firms and families some leverage to pass the bad months of the confinement and allow the economy to recover strongly in the third and fourth quarter. This bet on a speedy recovery may put the troubled European banking sector in a difficult situation.

Banks in Europe are in much better shape than they were in 2008, but that does not mean they are strong and ready to take billions of higher risk loans. European banks have reduced their non-performing loans, but the figure is still large, at 3.3% of total assets according to the European Central Bank. Financial entities also face the next two years with poor net income margins due to negative rates and very weak return on equity.

The two most important measures that governments have used in this crisis are large loans to businesses partially guaranteed by the member states, and significant jobless subsidy schemes to reduce the burden of unemployment. Almost 40 million workers in the large European nations are under a subsidized jobless scheme, according to Eurostat and Bankia Research. Loans that add up to 6% of the GDP of the Eurozone have been granted to let businesses navigate the crisis. So, what happens if the recovery is weak and uneven and the third and fourth quarter growth figures disappoint, as I believe will happen? First, the rise in non-performing loans may elevate the total figure to 6% of total assets in the banking sector, or 1.2 trillion euros. Second, up to 20% of the subsidized unemployed workers will probably join full unemployment, which may increase the risk in mortgage and personal loans significantly.

Banks may face a tsunami of problems as three factors collide:

  1. rise in non-performing loans,
  2. deflationary pressures from a prolonged crisis and,
  3. central bank keeping negative rates that destroy banking profitability.

We estimate a rise in net debt to EBITDA of the largest corporations of the Stoxx 600 soaring to 3x from the current 1.8x. This means that banks may face a wall of delinquencies and weakening solvency and liquidity in the vast majority of their assets (loans) just as deflationary pressures hit the economy, growth weakens and the central bank implements even more aggressive but futile liquidity measures and damaging rate cuts.

This combination of three problems at the same time may generate a risk of a financial crisis created by using the balance sheet of banks massively to address the bailout of every possible sector. It may undo the entire improvement in the balance sheet of the financial entities achieved slowly and painfully in the past decade and destroy it in a few months.

Governments should have taken more prudent measures and address the covid-19 crisis with tax cuts and grants and not so much through massive loans, even if those are partially guaranteed by the states. If the sovereign debt crisis starts to creep again, there will be a fourth risk that may damage banks and the financing of the real economy.

The response of banks in this crisis has been positive but may be too much too soon and clearly, they are taking too much risk at too low rates. So far, financial entities are being prudent and have made large provisions to strengthen the balance sheet. However, these provisions may need to be doubled in the next quarters.

Taking measures to avoid creating a financial crisis from these extreme policies will be critical to avoid a larger problem in 2021-2022.

end

EU extends the ban on USA travelers but lifts restrictions on China, Canada

(zerohedge)

EU Extends Ban On US Travelers, Lifts Restrictions On China, Canada, & Rwanda

Confirming what has been leaked, rumored for weeks, European Union officials have confirmed this morning that the bloc will extend its travel ban for US residents.

In the same decision, the EU will lift travel restrictions for Chinese residents as of July 1, on the condition that Beijing confirms that the same applies to EU citizens.

Bloomberg reports that the EU judgment, which is non-binding on member states, recommends that visitors only be allowed into the bloc from countries where the average number of infections per 100,000 inhabitants over the past two weeks is similar or below the level of the EU and that the trend of new cases is declining.

The decision will be reviewed in two weeks.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/ISRAEL?

Israel must have been very busy!

(zerohedge)

Mysterious Explosion Reported In Northern Tehran

Just a day after Tehran called for President Trump’s arrest, a mysterious explosion has been reported in the northern part of the capital city, with unconfirmed sources on US social media claiming it might be tied with a strike on an Iranian weapons depot.

Iranian state news reported the explosion, and an ensuing fire. It’s unclear whether the fire has been brought under control.

Footage of the aftermath is circulating on social media.

It follows another mysterious explosion a few days ago that was never explained, though some attributed it to “disposal” of arms.

Leftists have slammed Interpol over its decision to reject Iran’s call for Trump’s arrest, though the administration and its special envoy for Iran dismissed it as pure lunacy and just another cheap publicity stunt from the Middle East’s largest pariah state.

Notably, the explosion occurred one hour after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared that the end of an Iranian arms embargo would threaten world peace.

END

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/AUSTRALIA/GLOBE

Australia’s 2nd-Largest State Imposes 1-Month Lockdown As COVID-19 Infections Spike: Live Updates

Arizona Gov Doug Ducey last night announced plans for a month-long rollback of the state’s economic reopening, closing bars, restaurants, movie theaters, water parks and other venues, while pushing back the first day of school in the state until Aug. 17. Hours later, on the other side of the world, the leaders of Australia’s second-most-populous state, Victoria, ordered 36 suburbs surrounding Melbourne, the country’s second biggest city, to try and stop a cluster that has emerged over the past couple of weeks.

Australia never had a huge COVID-19 problem (the biggest outbreak before this incident in Victoria was caused by the “Ruby Princess” and the decision to allow infected passengers to disembark without any real scrutiny. Yet, weeks after its neighbor, New Zealand, declared the outbreak over, the country is seeing its worst outbreak yet.

Beginning at midnight on Wednesday (local time), the first suburb-specific stay-at-home order will come into effect for 320,000 people, according to Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, who spoke at a news conference on Tuesday. For four weeks, residents in the suburbs will be seeing a return to lockdown conditions: They must stay home unless traveling for work, school, healthcare, exercise or food. Restaurants are back to takeout only just weeks after the reopening. Local leaders described the move as a devastating setback for the local economy.

Most of Australia has reported zero or low single-digit daily increases in COVID-19 infections for weeks, Victoria has experienced double-digit increases for each of the previous 14 days, bringing Australia’s national daily totals back toward their highs. Victoria reported 64 new cases on Tuesday, down from the previous day’s 75 new cases.

More lockdown news from overnight: Nevada Governor announced the state won’t hesitate to reimpose restrictions if state-wide trends don’t improve. Georgia Governor Kemp extended his state’s public health emergency until Aug. 11, while LA Mayor Eric Garcetti announced a ‘hard pause’ on cinema reopenings for the largest theater market in the US.

As the number of new cases reported daily accelerates around the world, global cases have reached 10,278,458, according to JHU, while the worldwide death toll has hit 504,936. Elsewhere in Asia, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday unveiled plans to extend a plan to provide free grain to more than 800 million Indians until the end of November as the battle against the virus has left India’s economy in tatters. Though its daily number of new cases is off its highs, the numbers its seeing are still well above the peaks from just a couple of weeks ago. On Tuesday India reported 18,522 new cases, down from the 19,459 recorded the prior day, bringing the country’s total to 566,840. The country reported 418 new deaths, bringing the total to 16,893 deaths.

Indian PM Narendra Modi said Tuesday that while the country’s COVID-19 death rate is “under control,” the country’s outbreak has reached a “critical juncture.”

“People are becoming careless,” he said, adding, “we need to call out the violators.”

Back in East Asia, South Korea confirmed 43 new cases, up from 42 a day ago, as total infections reach 12,800 with 282 deaths, while in Japan, Tokyo has found more than 50 new cases for the fifth day running, TV Asahi reported.

China reports 19 new coronavirus cases, up from 12 a day earlier. Of the new infections, seven were in Beijing, which has been battling a fresh outbreak. China also reported four new asymptomatic patients, who tested positive for COVID-19 but showed no symptoms.

Yesterday, US states recorded fewer than 40k new cases for the first time in a week.

And deaths remain at or close to their lowest levels from March.

Following a move to rollback California’s economic reopening by closing bars and other venues, LA has joined a growing group of cities around the country that are planning to close their beaches for the July 4 weekend.

Following a handful of vaccine-trial updates out of China, British media reported that a global trial designed to test whether the anti-malaria drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine can prevent infection with COVID-19 will soon re-start after being approved by regulators.

Finally, the US isn’t on a “safe list” of destinations for non-essential travel due to be released by EU members later on Tuesday as the bloc unveils guidelines for leisure and business travel beyond its borders. For the past few days, a steady stream of leaks has claimed that the EU would exclude travelers from the US for the remainder of the summer, at least.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

An interesting discussion on oil..  Will China form an oil buying cartel to end the petrodollar?

(Tom Luongo)

Will China Forming Oil-Buying-Cartel End The Petrodollar?

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

China is building a buyer’s group (or cartel) comprised of its major state oil companies. I’m frankly surprised that this wasn’t already the case, since everything else is tightly controlled in China.

A report from Bloomberg (via Investing.com) states that:

Senior executives from China Petroleum (NYSE:SNP) & Chemical Corp., PetroChina Co., Cnooc Ltd. and Sinochem Group Co. are in advanced talks to iron out details of the plan, said people familiar with the initiative, who asked not to be identified as discussions are private and ongoing. The proposal has won the support of the Chinese central government and relevant industry watchdogs, the people said.

Since China is now the world’s largest importer of oil it only makes sense they would flip the switch and act as price makers rather than be price takers.

This makes perfect sense, economically, in the current environment as troubled oil exporters like Saudi Arabia continue to try and exert influence over the oil market.

The Saudis refuse to admit to themselves that their era of dominance over oil prices is, itself, over. As I noted in my blog from last week their attempt to gain market share through price slashing did nothing more than slash their own revenue to the bone, while making no new friends.

They shipped out 50% more oil and revenues plunged by 65%. They practically gave the stuff away in April. They had to. With the Riyal tied to the dollar they had to undercut Russian oil which trades in freely-floated rubles.

Because while China is certainly happy to pay less for oil, the knock-on effects of undermining its capital markets were and are far greater than the savings per barrel.

And that made them no new friends in the Poliburo.

That Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) acted to rashly in March I’m sure did not sit well with Chinese leadership. They clearly have no use for such an unreliable partner who refuses to take anything other than the U.S. dollar for its product.

To remind everyone, MBS threw his tantrum which locked up global markets after Russia’s refusal to agree to further OPEC+ production cuts in March. That precipitated the massive drop in oil prices which started the financial crisis.

So, it’s pretty obvious to me now that China seeks to further marginalize Saudi Arabia and the U.S. in the oil space.

The proof? Back to the Bloomberg article:

For a start, the group is set to collectively issue bids for certain Russian and African grades in the spot market, they said. While it’s unclear how the cooperation will evolve, the group represents refiners that import more than 5 million barrels of oil a day. That’s nearly a fifth of OPEC’s total output, which would make it the world’s largest crude buyer in theory.

Because here’s the rub, as always, China is looking for ways to deepen international use and liquidity of the yuan. Saudi Arabia and the U.S. want to continue use of the dollar as the main settlement currency for oil trading, the so-called petrodollar.

It is the petrodollar that provides the most inertia the world fights against to allow the rise of other currencies as settlement. Dollars are cheap to use, freely accepted and, for now, still a good store of (at least) medium-term value.

The petrodollar was created by the relationship between the U.S. as the biggest importer and Saudi Arabia the biggest exporter. As long as that relationship held the petrodollar flowed into foreign central banks, deepening everyone’s trust in it.

Now China is saying things have changed. Europe and China are willing to pay a little more for Russian Urals grade (per my article from Friday) after MBS’s tantrum.

Moreover, China wants its oil futures contract in Shanghai more dominant in the global market. That contract is a key piece to deepening Yuan liquidity.

Shifting the oil trade where it can trade in real time versus would be a boon to the market. Most of the Arab states set their tender prices at the beginning of the month and they don’t change.

Back to Bloomberg:

Importers … have struggled this year to manage the amount of crude received each month amid fluctuating domestic demand, refining margins and swelling stockpiles.

Volumes can only be adjusted slightly from earlier-agreed liftings, and final decisions lie with the seller. Saudi Aramco, Iraq’s SOMO and Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc all sell their crude at official prices announced early each month.

Indian processors and ports went so far as to declare force majeure in attempts to back out of crude liftings after the world’s biggest lockdown slashed demand.

What this cartel will do is create the opposite dynamic than has existed previously. Buyers will dictate terms to the sellers, which is the way the market is supposed to work.

And it’s goal, I think, is to break the monthly price tender system and put more volume up for open bid in Shanghai.

Cartels are inherently unstable but, at times, under extreme circumstances, they can be very effective at creating change to a sclerotic system. I think this is exactly what China is looking to do here.

Watch to see if this cartel comes together. If it does then in order to save itself, Saudi Arabia will have to come to Chinese importers head scarf in hand looking for business.

At the same time, because they accept other currencies for their oil, Russia stands to take more market share. They can always grind out the arbitrage in currency terms between the Saudi monthly tender price and their own COGS.

Lastly, don’t think for a second that China isn’t willing to pay a little more here or there to deny MBS and President Trump a few billion in much-needed export revenue and hand it to their partners in Russia.

Especially when you factor in the real arbitrage that neither country can offer better terms on, that of the real yield on a Russian government bond and a U.S. bond.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you need help navigating the Swamp of commodities and their political import. Install the Brave Browser if you want to slow Google’s takeover of our public behavior.

end

Quite a hit:

22 billion dollar write down due to COVID 19

Royal Dutch Shell To Write Down Up To $22 Billion After COVID Hit

Royal Dutch Shell published its second-quarter 2020 outlook Tuesday morning, warning that it would write down up to $22 billion worth of assets and revise its long-term energy price outlook.

This is an update to the second quarter 2020 outlook provided in the first quarter results announcement on April 30, 2020. The impacts presented here may vary from the actual results and are subject to finalisation of the second quarter 2020 results.

Unless otherwise indicated, presented post-tax earnings impacts relate to earnings on a current cost of supplies basis, attributable to shareholders, excluding identified items.

In addition, given the impact of COVID-19 and the ongoing challenging commodity price environment, Shell continues to adapt to ensure the business remains resilient. In light of this, Shell is announcing today a revised long-term commodity price and margin outlook, which is expected to result in non-cash impairments in the second quarter results. Details of the outlook and impairments are provided in the later part of this document. – Shell second quarter 2020 update 

The Anglo-Dutch company warned about severe virus-related impacts and the ongoing deterioration in demand for energy products and price slump, which has resulted in post-tax impairment charges of about $15 billion to $22 billion in the quarter.

Based on these reviews, aggregate post-tax impairment charges in the range of $15 to $22 billion are expected in the second quarter. Impairment charges are reported as identified items and no cash impact is expected in the second quarter. Indicative breakdown per segment is as follows:

  • Integrated Gas $8 – $9 billion, primarily in Australia including a partial impairment of the QGC and Prelude asset values
  • Upstream $4 – $6 billion, largely in Brazil and North America Shales
  • Oil Products $3 – $7 billion across the refining portfolio

– Shell second quarter 2020 update 

Given the commodity bust and global economic downturn – Shell provides a revised outlook for spot Brent and NatGas:

  • Brent: $35/bbl (2020), $40/bbl (2021), $50/bbl (2022), $60/bbl (2023) and long-term $60 (real terms 2020)
  • Henry Hub: $1.75/MMBtu (2020), $2.5/MMBtu (2021 and 2022), 2.75/MMBtu (2023) and long-term $3.0/MMBtu (real terms 2020)

Shell shares trading on the Eurex Exchange is down 2.54% on Tuesday following the news of the write-down.

Credit Suisse analyst Thomas Adolff said the company’s write-down in the second quarter was already expected given market conditions. Adolff called the update a “wake up call.”

“While revised volume guidance looks weak in absolute terms, it was in fact better than previous guidance for 2Q,” he wrote.

Bloomberg Intelligence noted:

“However, better operational performance when prices are low and tax effects go against you does not, unfortunately, get you very far,” Bloomberg Intelligence says Shell’s forecast for asset impairments confirms BI’s view of a “historically weak quarter.”

RBC Capital Markets said the update in the second quarter is “much better” than the guidance provided at the end of April:

“Lower refining-margin assumptions over time were a bigger surprise than lower near-term price deck for oil and gas,” analyst Biraj Borkhataria wrote.

Brent crude August futures show prices have stalled in the 43-39 range for the last 20 sessions.

We noted last week that much of the “recent optimism in oil markets has left many analysts scratching their heads, with no real fundamental reason for the shift in sentiment.”

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1203 DOWN .0044 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.76 UP 0.176 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2265   DOWN   0.0045  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3679 UP .0022 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 44 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1203 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 23.16 POINTS OR 0.78% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 125.91 POINTS OR 0.52%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1,45%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 125.91 POINTS OR 0.52%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 23.16 POINTS OR 0.78%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP  1.45 % 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 293.10  POINTS OR 1.33%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1766.95

silver:$17.83-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.63% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.38 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.72 UP 19 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.48% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +03% UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.47%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,26 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 111 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.45% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.71% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1247  UP     .0001 or 1 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.78 UP .196 OR YEN DOWN 20  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2376 UP .0067 POUND UP 67  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 47 basis points to 1.3086

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0650    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0676  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.8549 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +03%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.65 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.417 UP 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.37 DOWN 17  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 56.0 OR  0.56%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 78.81 POINTS OR .64%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 9.47 POINTS 0.19%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 46.70 POINTS or 0.64%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 71.50 POINTS OR 0.37%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 39.57 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 41.56 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    71.17  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 1.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 115 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.45 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  39.39//

 

 

BRENT :  41.35

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.65..up 3 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.41..up 3 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.12347 ( DOWN 12   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.95 UP .362 (YEN DOWN 36 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.42 DOWN 12 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2390 UP 79  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.8537

 

 

the Russian rouble 71.18   DOWN 1.17 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 117 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3581 UP 76 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.45%

 

The Dow closed UP 217.08 POINTS OR 0.85%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 184.61 POINTS OR 1.87%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  30.16 CLOSED DOWN 1.62

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.296%//libor dropping like a stone

LIBOR/OIS: .215%

TED SPREAD (LIBOR VS 3 MONTH TREASURY YIELD) =  .141%

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Dow Soars To Best Quarter Since ’87 As Fed Balance Sheet Explodes

Well that was a quarter… Massive and unprecedented monetary and fiscal largesse “saved” the “economy”…

…for the 1%…

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed expanded its balance sheet at a stunningly unprecedented pace…

Source: Bloomberg

And if you think this correlation is not causation, we have a bankrupt car-rental business you can buy…

Source: Bloomberg

But does the flattening of the Fed balance sheet suggest the party’s over? One thing is for certain, the gusher of fiscal folly has sent the US Macro Surprise Index to levels it has never been close to before – suggesting this is as good as it gets relative to expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

And while much has been made of the recent surge in cases, the market remains confident (VIX relatively unmoved), clearly focused on the falling incremental death rate…

Source: Bloomberg

The Nasdaq soared 30% in Q2 and led the US majors, and The Dow lagged (though with a stunning 16% gain)…

Source: Bloomberg

Q2 was the biggest short-squeeze ever…

Source: Bloomberg

That was The Dow’s best quarter since Q1 1987…

Source: Bloomberg

Q2 2020 saw the S&P rally to its best quarter since 1998, Nasdaq’s best quarter since 2001…

Source: Bloomberg

… and “growth” saw its best quarter ever…

Source: Bloomberg

The quarter was dominated by big tech…

Source: Reuters

And valuations soared to near record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Momentum bounced back from a deep-dive intra-quarter to end unch while value ended the quarter lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Banks mostly soared higher in Q2 (except Wells Fargo), although the last few weeks have seen weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG Stocks saw BTFD’ers all quarter…

Source: Bloomberg

And TSLA topped $200bn market cap, within a few billion of the largest car-maker on the planet…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq outperformed on the month and thanks to this week’s gains, Dow and S&P managed to get back into the green for the month after a mid-month scare over COVID second-wave (Small Caps outperformed Big Caps in June)…

In a copy of yesterday, stocks were bid at the cash open and into the cash close – small caps are up 5% this weeks…

But, stocks and Bonds remain massively decoupled over the quarter…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields ended the quarter very mixed (after Q1’s biggest yield drop since Lehman) with the short-end dramatically outperforming the longer-end (but rates are way off their end-May highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

The USDollar fell 2% in Q2, its 2nd worst quarter since Q2 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum and Bitcoin soared in Q2 with most of the smaller altcoins ended marginally higher…

Source: Bloomberg

All the major commodities were higher on the quarter with silver and crude doing best (after the latter’s historic collapse to a negative price)…

Source: Bloomberg

This was WTI’s  best quarter since Sept 1990, Gold’s best Q since Q1 2016 (up 7 quarters in a row), and Silver’s best quarter since Q4 2010.

Gold futures topped $1800 to end the quarter…

… for the first time since 2011…

Source: Bloomberg

And the gold/silver ratio collapsed back below 100x…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, in case you wondered, “Sell in May and go away” is working… if you sell the day!

Since the start of May, the S&P 500 has lost 87 points during the day session and gained 228 pints during the overnight session.

The question is – are we heading for 2009…

Source: Bloomberg

Or the ’30s…

Source: Bloomberg

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Despite National Lockdown & Sales Collapse, US Home Prices Accelerated For 9th Straight Month In April

While recent home sales data has rebounded stunningly, Case-Shiller’s home-price appreciation index was expected to show signs of slowing in April (always lagged) – the peak of the lockdowns across the states… but it didn’t.

Somehow, whether through smoothing or seasonal adjustments, the 20-City Composite home price index accelerated at +3.98% YoY (up from March’s revised 3.91% and better than the expected 3.80% rise)

Source: Bloomberg

Phoenix, Seattle, Minneapolis reported highest year-over-year gains among 19 cities surveyed (Detroit excluded for month due to virus-related reporting delays). end

Not good:  Chicago PMI suffers the biggest miss in 5 years…no hope for a fast recovery
(zerohedge)

Chicago PMI Suffers Biggest Miss In 5 Years As ‘V’ Hope Fades

After what seems like weeks of “v”-shaped bounces in sentiment surveys as the euphoria of not being locked up reflects on hope for the future, Chicago’s PMI barometer gravely disappointed in June.

Against expectations of a “v”-like bounce to 45.0, Chicago PMI managed only 36.6 – barely above April’s level…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest miss of expectations since Feb 2015.

  • Prices paid rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion
  • New orders fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
  • Employment fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
  • Inventories fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion
  • Production fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
  • Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

Somebody do something!

 

end

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

A good commentary on the fate of malls in the USA. This is the story on mid tier CBL

Unglesbee/Retail Dive)

How CBL’s Journey To The Brink Lays Bare The Risks To Malls

Authored by Ben Unglesbee of Retail Dive,

On March 9, CBL & Associates Properties filed its annual report with the SEC that included a word that wasn’t there the year before: “pandemic.”

It was included on a list of factors beyond the company’s control that could affect shopping at the malls it operates and owns. In a bullet point, CBL said that pandemic outbreaks, or the threat of, could “cause customers of our tenants to avoid public places where large crowds are in attendance.”

The week after that language appeared in a regulatory filing, retailers began rushing to close their stores en masse as it became apparent that the COVID-19 pandemic was making its way through the U.S. with deadly consequences. The closures would go on for months, and as retailers tried to ensure their survival by raising and maintaining cash, retailers of all sizes and financial profiles skipped their rent payments.

Those skipped payments are still reverberating throughout the ecosystem. And CBL could become the first large landlord to crack and file for bankruptcy, as the system undergoes a shock unlike any other it has faced.

Slow-motion decline

CBL, according to analysts, operates mainly B-class malls,exposing it to all the struggles of that class of shopping center. It has middle-tier stores in middle-tier markets, in a world where the middle is getting hollowed out by income stratification, as consumers break left and right for value or luxury and experience.

When Moses Lebovitz, his son Charles Lebovitz (today the chairman of CBL) and Jay Solomon started developing shopping center real estate in 1961, launching a business partnership that would eventually lead to the creation of CBL, they were part of a thriving market.

“Let’s not forget that malls were a central part of the U.S. retail system in the 1960s, 70s and 80s,” Nick Egelanian, president of retail development firm SiteWorks​, said in an interview. Malls then were a one-stop destination that revolved largely around everyday goods.

The ensuing decades changed that, as discounters, big-box stores and strip centers disrupted department stores and other mall retailers, and the malls themselves started to shift toward fashion, which brought higher margins for retailers and higher revenue for mall operators.

The drift toward apparel and fashion within the entire mall reshaped the business, creating a bifurcation among shopping centers themselves. While other real estate companies such as Simon Property Group bought up other REITs and malls, or conversely sold themselves to others, CBL plugged along with a portfolio that was diminishing in value.

“You started to have this class of super valuable, super premium fashion malls. If you were not getting Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus, Saks, Bloomingdale’s or a really good Macy’s, you were going backwards,” Egelanian said. “What was a good business for CBL … started to see declines.”

“Companies like CBL really didn’t understand it,” he added. “It was happening in slow motion.”

But the decline is plenty apparent today. Dozens of retailers have gone bankrupt, including major anchors like Sears, Bon-Ton and J.C. Penney, as well as numerous fashion and mall-based specialty retailers. The upheaval in retail shows in CBL’s numbers. It’s revenue has declined for each of the past five years and the company has recorded sizable net losses for the past two years.

Looking at the list of CBL’s most important retail tenants, in terms of the revenue they bring in, few are without troubles right now. L Brands tops the list, with 128 stores at CBL properties and accounting for more than 4% of the REIT’s revenue. L Brands, with its Victoria’s Secret banner wrestling with a years-long decline, is looking to close some 250 stores in the near future. Second on the list is Signet Jewelers, which plans to close nearly 400 stores and turn to an e-commerce focus after major sales and profit losses.

Going down in terms of revenue, some other names on the list include Ascena, The Gap, Finish Line, Express,Forever 21, J.C. Penney, Barnes & Noble, Hot Topic, The Children’s Place, Claire’s and Macy’s, among others — all of which have experienced business struggles of varying degrees, from periodic sales declines to open or exited bankruptcies.

Unpaid bills

In mid-April, deep in retail’s unprecedented physical shutdown around COVID-19, CBL announced it was cutting spending on maintenance and executive salaries, and furloughing employees.

The majority of CBL’s properties closed because of government mandates. CEO Stephen Lebovitz said in late May that for the month of April, CBL had received just 27% of billed cash rents, with the rate for May not looking much higher. (By late May, the majority of the company’s properties had reopened.) The company’s rental revenue fell 15.6% year over year in the first quarter.

“The majority of our tenants requested rent relief, either in the form of rent deferrals or abatements,” Stephen Lebovitz said in a statement. “We have placed a number of tenants in default for non-payment of rent.” He added that “a significant portion” of April and May rent that was deferred would be collected later in 2020 and into 2021. “However, negotiations are ongoing, and it is premature to estimate a recovery rate at this time,” Stephen Lebovitz said.

As rent payments slowed to a trickle, the company negotiated payment deferrals on secured debt, but Stephen Lebovitz said that “[s]ecuritized lenders in general have shown minimal flexibility in amending loan payments.”

On June 1, CBL skipped an $11.8 million interest payment on a set of unsecured bonds, not due until 2023, setting in motion a 30-day grace period. As it negotiated with debtholders, it skipped another $18.6 million payment on another group of unsecured bonds, which came with its own grace period. Earlier, in March, the company breached a covenant in its senior secured credit facility after making a draw on the credit line, giving lenders the ability to accelerate its maturity. (They haven’t yet done so, and CBL said its seeking a waiver.)

In announcing the first missed payment, the company raised the possibility that it might not be able to survive over the next year.

“Given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the retail and broader markets, the ongoing weakness of the credit markets and significant uncertainties associated with each of these matters, the Company believes that there is substantial doubt that it will continue to operate as a going concern within one year after the date these condensed consolidated financial statements are issued,” the company said in its quarterly securities filing in June.

A system disrupted

CBL’s troubles in the post-COVID world are not unique. Only about 29% of April mall rents were paid, according to data compiled by Jefferies analysts. (The figure is closer to 26% if you toss out Seritage Growth Properties, which had relatively high payment rates compared to its peers.) For office space, by comparison, 94% of rents were paid, and even strip center rents were nearly 64% paid, according to Jefferies data, which was emailed to Retail Dive.

The early figures for May showed 30% rent collection at malls.

Mall owners and operators, of course, have their own obligations to pay — mortgages, interest, employees and so forth. So as retailers pull back on rent to stay alive, the pain is felt throughout the system. So far, creditors are giving landlords some wiggle room.

“The lease says you have to pay it, and the loan says you have to pay it, but if you pay it you’re going to go out of business.”

Nick Egelanian; President, SiteWorks

“I think a lot of landlords have been able to get forbearance on their loans,” Linda Tsai, a senior equity analyst with Jefferies, said in an interview. “Lenders understand this is an extraordinary situation. For the most part they’re willing to give the assistance mall owners need to see how it plays out.”

But the system, where more or less every retail tenant pays their rent on time except for the occasional retailer in distress, was not built for a shock of this scale. And thus there is no playbook for dealing with it.

In this environment, landlords are suing retailers for unpaid rentretailers are suing landlords to get out of rent, and retailers are filing or contemplating bankruptcy to seek shelter from rent or because they’re facing lockouts and default notices from their landlords. Bloomberg reported in late May that landlords had sent out “thousands” of default notices to retail tenants.

“Retailers in the best case got some forgiveness, and in the worst case deferred everything,” Egelanian said. “And they’re not going to pay all that rent.”

Which means more mall operators, already struggling before COVID-19 with a decline in the sector, could fall short on funds to pay their own obligations. Retailers and landlords and mall operators are making stark choices about rent and debt payments, and more could come. “The lease says you have to pay it, and the loan says you have to pay it, but if you pay it you’re going to go out of business,” Egelanian said. “Public companies now have to start looking out for themselves.”

What has been a “well-oiled system of interlocking gears” is at risk of becoming “a system of dominoes to knock each other down,” according to Egelanian. “It’s just unsustainable right now,” he said. “You’re going to see landlords fall, retailers fall, REITs fail in the market.”

END

Zero hedge outlines why the economy is about to fall off the fiscal cliff

(zerohedge)

“Look Out Below”: Why The Economy Is About To Fly Off A Fiscal Cliff

One look at the latest economic data, conveniently summarized by the exploding Citi US econ surprise index, should be sufficient to convince most that the US is well and truly following a V-shaped recovery path.

Alas, nothing could be further from the truth because the current economic sugar rush is almost entirely a function of the massive government spending spree, a spree which in just over a month will be effectively over. As a result, as Bank of America writes, the economy is facing fiscal cliffs which could cause the recovery to disintegrate, with four particular areas of focus:

  1. expiration of extended unemployment insurance,
  2. the fading support from stimulus checks,
  3. exhaustion of PPP
  4. stress from state and local aid gov’ts.

In response, BofA expects another stimulus bill to be passed in late July to address some – but not all – of these concerns, and “instead of a cliff, we will likely be facing a hill.” That may be optimistic, because any stimulus would need to be bipartisan, and if the Democrats wish to crush Trump’s re-election chances, now is the time for them to push the economy into a depression with elections in just 4 months.

Will they do it? We’ll know in a few weeks, and certainly once the July 31 benefits cliff hits.

Until then, here is BofA on the likely fiscal cliff outcomes:

Fiscal: look out below

In the face of the shock from the COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal stimulus has poured into the economy. Washington has pushed in roughly $2.8tr of stimulus, equaling 13% of GDP while the Fed has expanded its balance sheet to $7.1tr. The rapid and forceful support on the policy front likely limited the downside during the recession and has helped to support the ongoing recovery. But we are now approaching a few “cliffs” which would prove painful if unaddressed. We see four areas of concern:

  • Unemployment insurance (UI)the incremental $600/week is set to expire on July 31st. To put some numbers around this, at the current level of nearly 20 million people receiving unemployment insurance this would equate to a reduction in personal income of $48bn ($576bn annualized) or 2.7% of GDP.
  • Stimulus checks are no longer rolling inthe majority of the tax rebates / checks were distributed in mid/late April. To date, around $270bn of the $290bn has been pumped in. We find that consumers quickly spent the additional cash which means a diminishing support to spending.
  • Payroll Protection Program (PPP):of the $670bn allocated to the PPP, around 77% has been approved. The new legislation allows small businesses until the end of the year to allocate the funds (vs end of June previously) which prolongs the support from the program. However, the magnitude of the support is lessened given that the size of the program has not changed and it was initially designed to help small businesses get through a shock lasting roughly two months.
  • State & local aid: the CARES Act allocated $150bn to state & local governments to be used for unexpected coronavirus-related costs. But this did not address the revenue shock state and local governments have experienced. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), 29 states and DC expect FY 2021 general fund revenues to be lower than their pre-COVID projections. Without aid, these governments will be forced to make further cuts to employment and services.

Quantifying the impact

In Table 1, BofA groups the stimulus programs to date into major sectors. About 23% of the funds have been directed toward households to offset the significant strain on household incomes from massive job cuts. Moreover, if you include the required wage portion of the PPP loans, the household share of stimulus is over 40% of funds.

The good news is that these measures have worked. Personal income jumped 10.5% mom SA in April. An $879bn annualized decline in compensation was offset by a $2,999bn increase in transfer payments, of which $361bn was from unemployment insurance. Given that PPP was first getting underway in April BofA assumes it had little/no impact on labor income in April. If one nets out the boost from stimulus checks and unemployment insurance, personal income would have declined by 5.6% mom SA in April vs. the 10.5% reported increase.

In line with expectations, and the fading of a fiscal impulse, last Friday we observed a sizeable decline in personal income given that the boost from stimulus checks declined substantially compared to April. Looking ahead to June, BofA expects another drop in income as people shift back into the labor market from unemployment insurance. Given that the majority of those on unemployment insurance earned more from benefits than when they were working, the move back to employed will actually be a net negative for overall income. Indeed a recent paper (Ganong et al. 2020) found that roughly two-thirds of UI recipients are earning more than their lost wages.

The big question is what happens in August?

This will be the first month following the “cliff”. The current law calls for the additional $600/week to expire. Based on BofA’s forecast for the labor market, continuing claims in August could still be running around 16mn, up by nearly 15mn from the pre-COVID February levels. Assuming it is 16mn, the loss of the $600/week benefit would translate into roughly a $36bn drop in income in August, or a 2.3% mom decline.

The Payroll Protection Program (PPP) has also underpinned labor income. The Small Business Administration (SBA) has approved $516bn in PPP loans. Under previous rules, 75% of those funds had to go to payrolls over an 8 week period in order for the loan to be forgiven. As such, this would translate to $387bn in support for labor income, mostly in May and June. The law has since been amended such that businesses only need to use 60% of the funds for payroll costs over a 24 week period. However, no changes were made to the maximum size of the loan, which is the lesser of $10mn or 2.5x 2019 average monthly payrolls. While the changes will help businesses stay afloat as they deal with reduced demand, it also means that the support for labor income has been substantially reduced and spread out.

From income to spending

Clearly there has been a significant boost to personal income from stimulus. But now it is time to consider how this filters into the real economy via consumer spending. The biggest jolt to spending likely came from the stimulus checks. A paper from the Chicago Fed (Karger et al. 2020) found that in the two weeks after households received their stimulus check, they spent roughly 48% of it. Then spending fell back to normal levels. Based on analysis with aggregated BAC card data, the bank similarly found that the bulk of the incremental spending from the stimulus checks occurred over a 5-day period following receipt of the money.

Meanwhile, the path of consumer spending will be impacted by the trajectory for unemployment insurance. A paper from Ganong found that spending on nondurables declined by less than 1% while people were receiving UI, but at exhaustion dropped by 12%. Not extending the program would mean a 2.3% decline in personal income in August. Given the high propensity to consume out of unemployment insurance this would be a similarly sized hit to consumer spending in August.

However, by extending the program, the unemployment rate is also likely to be stickier as people have an incentive to stay out of work. Indeed, a recent analysis from the CBO found that if the program was extended as is through the end of the year then 5 out of 6 recipients would earn more on unemployment than they would if they were to return to work. They estimate that while this may boost GDP this year it would be a drag on growth next year. If the program was instead allowed to expire, presumably the unemployment rate would fall faster and more people would return to work. However, even with greater engagement in the labor market, income would still decline given that unemployment insurance is more generous and many workers will find challenges returning to the workforce.

In addition to the impending “cliff” for household income, many state and local governments are facing a concerning revenue outlook as they move closer to the start of FY 2021. According to CBPP (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities), initial estimates of the revenue impact from the COVID-shock indicate that state revenue could drop in FY 2021 by more than it did during the Great Recession. States will be forced to tap into their rainy day funds first before ultimately making cuts to spending to offset the revenue shortfalls, as they are required to balance their budgets. Indeed, governors in Ohio, New Jersey and Georgia have already asked state agencies to prepare for sizeable cuts to spending. Indeed state & local government have already started to cut jobs – in the April and May employment report, state and local governments shed nearly 1.6mn workers.

Congress to take action in late July/early August

Republicans and Democrats are at odds over whether to extend the expanded unemployment insurance program for obvious reasons. The Democrats in Congress generally advocate for a full extension as was passed in the HEROES Act but Republicans are resisting, arguing that the generosity of the program has discouraged a return to work. A middle ground may be a smaller dollar amount (perhaps $250-300/ week) with back-to-work bonuses that will create an incentive to return to the workforce.

On state & local aid, the HEROES Act called for close to $1tr in relief. While this number is unlikely in our view, a bipartisan bill proposed by Senator Cassidy (R-LA) and Senator Menendez (R-NJ) proposed in May would allocate $500bn in aid to state and local governments. The ultimate number will likely be nearer to that number than the amount from the HEROES act.

There has also been some talk of another round of stimulus checks with President Trump affirming “Yeah, we are” [going to do another stimulus check], and White House Economic advisor Larry Kudlow saying that a second round would likely happen but be more targeted. While this also showed up in the Dem’s HEROES Act, some Republicans in the Senate (Sen. Toomey (R-PA) and Sen. Cornyn (R-TX)) have voiced opposition to another round recently. Republicans have generally raised concerns that stimulus checks are not the most efficient way to target those who are most in need.

The White House has also been calling for other measures such as a payroll tax cut and an infrastructure package, although neither of these are likely as the payroll tax cut would only help those who still have a job while an infrastructure bill is unlikely to be tackled until after the election.

In summary, after July 31 the US economy is set to fly off a fiscal cliff that could be just as painful as what happened in late March/April unless there is a bipartisan agreement in Congress on trillions more in fiscal stimulus. The clock is now ticking.

 end
No doubt this is true: 40% of voters think that Biden has dementia
(zerohedge)

Nearly 40% Of Voters Think Biden Has Dementia

Nearly 40% of voters think former Vice President Joe Biden has dementia, including 20% of Democrats, according to a new Rasmussen poll.

Their latest national telephone and online survey found that “38% of likely US voters think Biden is suffering from some form of dementia,” while 48% disagree and 14% are not sure.

And Given Biden’s recent gaffes – suggesting that 120 million Americans have died from COVID, just months after he said that 150 million Americans have died from guns – it’s no surprise that 61% of those polled believe it’s important for Biden to address the dementia issue publicly, 41% of whom say it is “very important.”

“Right now voters have questions concerning Biden’s mental health and stamina,” according to Zogby.

end
This will anger China:  FCC blocks Huawei, and ZTE from lucrative American markets
(zerohedge)

FCC Blocks Huawei, ZTE From Lucrative American Markets

In a move that will essentially cut Huawei off from a critical US market: the smaller, more rural-focused telecoms providers who rely on cheap Huawei components to maintain its wireless infrastructure. According to Bloomberg, the FCC has designated Huawei and ZTE, two Chinese telecoms giants, as national security threats.

The renewed pressure on both Huawei and ZTE from the FCC comes as the Commerce Department, State Department and the White House engage in a multilayered strategy to encourage US allies to block Huawei from providing components to their new 5G wireless networks, warning that the company creates vulnerabilities that can be exploited by the CCP.

Previously, the Trump Administration has tried to block both companies from either buying chips produced in the US and/or made with US technology.

Here’s more on the decision from FCC Chairman Ajit Pai.

We imagine more threats of corporate retaliation from Beijing should be landing any minute now.

 end
NY Fed’s Williams comments on the economy:

Fed’s Williams warns that U.S. economy far from healthy even if worst of the coronavirus outbreak is over

June 30, 2020 at 11:12 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Full recovery from COVID-19 is years away, New York Fed president says

The economy seems to be on the mend from the worst of the early days of the pandemic but remains damaged, said New York Fed President John Williams on Tuesday.

“There have been signs that we may be past the worst of the extreme economic distress and early indications of a recovery have started to emerge,” Williams said, in a virtual talk sponsored by the Institute of International Finance.

Consumer spending has rebounded, and building permits have risen, which is a sign of strength in construction, Williams said. In addition, the high unemployment rate has started to recede from peak levels, though job losses remain elevated.

While these improvement are welcome, “the economy is still far from healthy and a full recovery will likely take years to achieve,” Williams predicts.

The outbreak of COVID-19 will continue to be “at center stage” during the recovery, he said.

High-frequency economic data indicate that there are signs of a slowdown in southern and western states in the U.S., which are seeing a resurgence in cases of the disease derived from the novel strain of coronavirus.

“A strong economic recovery depends on effective and sustained containment of COVID-19,” he said. At this point, however, health officials are focused on limiting the spread of the deadly pathogen.

Williams is a member of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s inner-circle. His comments are similar to Powell’s prepared remarks that were released by the House Financial Services on Monday. The Fed chairman will take questions from lawmakers starting at 12:30 p.m. Eastern.

Powell said the economy has entered an important new phase sooner than expected but said it comes with a challenge of keeping the virus in check.

Both Williams and Powell emphasized that much remains unknown about how the pandemic will play out in the months ahead.

Williams said the Fed’s purchases of over $2 trillion of assets and 11 lending programs have helped to loosen areas of financial markets that seized up back in March as the pandemic was taking root in the U.S.

The New York Fed president, which maintains a permanent vote as a part of the Federal Open Market Committee by dint of that position’s oversight of many of the nation’s largest financial institutions, said the central bank remains ready to use its “full range of tools to support the economy to bring about a full and robust recovery.”

-END-

Close To Half Of All Working Age Adults In The US Do Not Have A Job Right Now

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

There is a lot of talk about the “unemployment rate” these days, but the way that it is calculated has become so convoluted that it is not really that meaningful anymore.  Even during the so-called “good times”, more than 100 million U.S. adults were not working, but we were told that the unemployment rate was the lowest that it had been in decades.  Of course now everything has changed.

Since this pandemic began, more than 47 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits, and the mainstream media is going to make sure that fear of COVID-19 continues to paralyze our society for the foreseeable future.

In this article, I would like to discuss the employment-population ratio.  According to Wikipedia, the employment-population ratio is “a statistical ratio that measures the proportion of the country’s working age population that is employed”.  I believe that it is a far more accurate measurement than the “unemployment rate” is, and we have seen this ratio move quite dramatically over the past couple of months.  According to CNBC, the employment-population ratio hit 52.8 percent in May, and that means that 47.2 percent of all working age Americans did not have a job…

Nearly half of the population is still out of a job showing just how far the U.S. labor market has to heal in the wake of the coronavirus.

The employment-population ratio — the number of employed people as a percentage of the U.S. adult population — plunged to 52.8% in May, meaning 47.2% of Americans are jobless, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics. As the coronavirus-induced shutdowns tore through the labor market, the share of population employed dropped sharply from a recent high of 61.2% in January, farther away from a post-war record of 64.7% in 2000.

As you can see on this chartwe are definitely in uncharted territory.

We have never seen a collapse of this magnitude in all of U.S. history, and it has been truly horrifying to watch so many people lose their jobs.

It would be difficult to overstate just how far we have fallen.  One analyst has pointed out that it would take 30 million new jobs for the employment-population ratio to return to the peak that we witnessed all the way back in 2000…

“To get the employment-to-population ratio back to where it was at its peak in 2000 we need to create 30 million jobs,” Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank’s chief economist, said in an email.

Of course before we can start adding jobs we have got to stop the bleeding first, and at this point more than a million Americans continue to file new claims for unemployment benefits each and every week.

And more job losses are coming, because companies are shutting down at a staggering rate.  In fact, this week USA Today warned that “experts believe this is just the beginning of a bankruptcy tsunami that will wash over the country’s largest companies this summer”…

Twelve midsize to large corporations – all with more than $10 million in debt – filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection during the third week of June, another consequence of the coronavirus pandemic and continued trouble in America’s oil industry.

The filings represent the highest weekly total of the year, and experts believe this is just the beginning of a bankruptcy tsunami that will wash over the country’s largest companies this summer and then drench both smaller businesses and individuals if government stimulus money dries up.

Those two paragraphs almost sound like something that I could have written.

But at this point it is very difficult for anyone to deny how bad things have become.  So many firms are suddenly going bankrupt that it is impossible to keep up with them all, and the energy industry is being hit particularly hard

At least 24 oil and gas companies filed from April through June – nearly twice as many as during the first three months of the year, according to Haynes and Boone LLP, an international law firm based in Texas. Four of those companies – Texas-based NorthEast Gas Generation, Colorado-based Extraction Oil & Gas, and Chisolm Oil and Gas and Chesapeake Energy, which are both from Oklahoma – filed in the last two weeks of June.

“This trend should continue through the remainder of 2020 and into 2021,” said Charles Beckham, a partner in Haynes and Boone’s restructuring practice.

Of course it isn’t just the U.S. that is experiencing severe economic pain.

COVID-19 has paralyzed economies all over the planet, and global trade has dropped precipitously

World trade in goods plunged by 12% in April from March, after having already dropped 2.4% in March from February. This plunge of the Merchandise World Trade Monitor, released by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, was by far the largest month-to-month drop in the history of the data going back to 2000.

For such a long time, many were warning that “the next global depression” was coming, and now it is here.

Many of the economic optimists had been hoping for a very short downturn followed by a “V-shaped recovery”, but now it has become clear that is simply not going to happen.

The primary factor dragging our economy down is fear of COVID-19, and the mainstream media continues to add to that fear day after day.

Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen a surge of new cases in some portions of the U.S., and this has caused quite a few states to put a hold on their reopening plans

At least 14 states have paused or rolled back their reopening plans as the United States sees a surge in coronavirus cases across the country.

With July 4 celebrations approaching, officials are trying not to repeat scenes from Memorial Day, when thousands flocked to beaches, bars and parties while experts cautioned that crowds could lead to spikes in cases down the road.

I wish that I could tell you that things will soon get much better for the U.S. economy, but I can’t.

Yes, there will be ups and downs during the months ahead, but a return to “normal” is certainly not in the cards.

So I would definitely encourage everyone to use this window of opportunity to get prepared for rough times ahead, because we are about to see things happen that we have never seen before.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries

New York times no doubt published a fake story..

(zerohedge)

Buried In All The Sensational “Russian Bounty” Headlines: Intel Chiefs Back White House Position

A group of Congressional Democrats will be briefed at the White House Tuesday in response to ongoing accusations that Trump was made aware of but ignored what The New York Times described last Friday as a Russian military intelligence operation that sought to kill American troops in Afghanistan by issuing bounties to Taliban fighters.

This following a Monday briefing of at least seven Republican lawmakers, also as both Republican and Democratic leaders demand answers and full briefings from the CIA and Pentagon. Crucially it remains, however, that the White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence have firmly rejected that the president was ever briefed.

On Saturday Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said in a statement that he had “confirmed that neither the President nor the Vice President were ever briefed on any intelligence alleged by the New York Times in its reporting.” 

 

CIA Director Gina Haspel with Trump, via AP.

And Trump said further in a Saturday night tweet“Intel just reported to me that they did not find this info credible, and therefore did not report it to me or VP.”

A carefully worded and to be expected somewhat vague Monday evening statement from CIA Director Gina Haspel appeared to vindicate the White House’s assertion of lack of credible intelligence behind it. Essentially the CIA director seemed to reference the danger of “cherry-picking” from lower level unvetted raw information.

“When developing intelligence assessments, initial tactical reports often require additional collection and validation,” Haspel said.

“Leaks compromise and disrupt the critical interagency work to collect, assess, and ascribe culpability,” she added, strongly suggesting that indeed there was not enough to go on concerning the Russian bounty allegations for it to rise to the level of the commander-in-chief.

A number of pundits took this as a clear denial that there was anything significant or worthy of briefing the president on regarding alleged “Russian bounties” — meaning it was likely deemed “chatter” or unsubstantiated rumor picked up either by US or British intelligence  and subsequently leaked to the press to revive the pretty much dead Russiagate narrative of some level of “Trump-Putin collusion”.

Still, Congress wants answers in what’s already indeed looking like a revived Russiagate scenario conveniently timed for the outrage machine to kick into full gear just ahead of the November election.

House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said: “If the reports are true, that the administration knew about this Russian operation and did nothing, they have broken the trust of those who serve and the commitment to their families to ensure their loved one’s safety,” according to The Hill. “It is imperative that the House Armed Services Committee receive detailed answers from the Department of Defense.”

And of course newly minted “resistance hero” John Bolton, busy with a media blitz promoting his book, made statements to NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday stating his belief that the president was likely briefed on the matter. The former national security adviser called the Trump denial “remarkable” — enough to grab headlines.

But considering his careful, ambiguous remarks, it’s clear that belief is the operative word here:

“He can disown everything if no-one ever told him about it,” Bolton said… “It looks like just another day in the office at the Trump White House.”

Bolton said he didn’t know the quality of the intelligence on the Russian bounty plan, or the extent of it. And not all information that flows through the many U.S. intelligence agencies is passed on to the commander in chief, Bolton noted.

“There needs to be a filter of intelligence for any president, especially for this president,” he said.

“Active Russian aggression like that against American servicemen is a very, very serious matter,” Bolton added.

So at this point we are still merely at the level of “impossible to verify or confirm anything”, despite the major outlets behind the original story, namely the NY Times and Washington Post, claiming to have “confirmed” each other’s reporting.

* * *

Meanwhile, speaking of America’s longest war, does anyone at all of Capitol Hill remember this actual confirmed and exhaustively documented story?

end

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

@YahooFinance: Syracuse University’s @MadAdProf on the $FB advertising boycott: “The one thing you have to keep in mind, especially for Facebook, is the $70 billion in revenue, only 6% of that revenue comes from their top 100 advertisers.”

@zerohedge: Dear @federalreserve: How does buying foreign corporate bonds such as Toyota, Volkswagen and Daimler which are the top 3 of your corp bond index, help the US middle class?   https://zerohedge.com/markets/toyota-volkswagen-and-daimler-here-are-corporate-bonds-fed-buying-most

BofA, JPMorgan Exposed to New Covid Spikes, Morgan Stanley Warns

Zerbe and Graseck highlighted banks with the greatest dollar exposure in the “epicenter” of the pandemic. They include the biggest lenders: Bank of America Corp., with $618 billion in deposits across those five states, as per 2019 data; Wells Fargo & Co., with $467 billion; JPMorgan Chase & Co., with $420 billion, and Truist Financial Corp., with $140 billion…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-29/bofa-jpmorgan-exposed-to-new-covid-spikes-morgan-stanley-warns

CLOs Get Volcker Rule Reprieve to Buy More Than Leveraged Loans

    Collateralized loan obligations can now have 5% bond buckets

    Other changes could even allow CLOs to hold equity-like assets

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/clos-get-volcker-rule-reprieve-to-buy-more-than-leveraged-loans

@realDonaldTrump: Intel just reported to me that they did not find this info credible, and therefore did not report it to me or @VP. Possibly another fabricated Russia Hoax, maybe by the Fake News @nytimesbooks, wanting to make Republicans look bad!!!

 

@CBS_Herridge: An intelligence official with direct knowledge tells CBS News there was an intel collection report and “NSA assesses Report does not match well established and verifiable Taliban and Haqqani practices” + “lack sufficient reporting to corroborate any links.”  The official said the inteligence collection report reached “low levels” NSC but did not go further, not briefed POTUS, or VP because it was deemed “uncorroborated” and “dissent intelligence community”. [Deep state DJT hater]

 

History shows that revolutionaries eventually turn on the wealthy.

 

@livesmattershow: DC protesters have set up a “guillotine” in protest of Jeff Bezos in front of his complex in DC      https://twitter.com/livesmattershow/status/1277372511227973632

 

Rasmussen Poll: 38% of [likely] voters Think Biden Has Dementia – 48% disagree, but 14% are not sure…Twenty percent (20%) of voters in his own party think Biden has dementia. But that compares to 66% of Republicans and 30% of voters not affiliated with either major party… 61% of all voters believe it is important for Biden to address the dementia issue publicly, with 41% who say it is Very Important…

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia

 

BUSTED: Fox’s Washington Executive Is Actively Campaigning for Former Boss Joe Biden

Danny O’Brien, the EVP and head of government relations at Fox News’ parent company, is a former Joe Biden chief of staff who is reportedly actively helping the Biden campaign connect to Washington lobbyists… https://nationalfile.com/busted-foxs-washington-executive-is-actively-campaigning-for-former-boss-joe-biden/

 

Advertisers have realized that social media companies present the Fahrenheit 451 Syndrome: Someone is easily offended by anything.

 

Ray Bradbury’s classic book Fahrenheit 451, which depicts a dystopia with government book burning and censorship, is frightfully prescient.

 

When protagonist Montag asks Fire Chief Beatty why the government is burning books, Beatty scolds him that the government didn’t start the practice.  People demanded that books be burned.  Beatty claims people are lazy, have short attention spans and “bigger populations” have many minorities and “minor minor minorities”.  So, someone is going to be offended by “anything that they didn’t already believe.

 

Beatty: “Because so many of the individuals who made up that public wanted to avoid ever being offended by reading anything they didn’t already believe… Not everyone born free and equal, as the Constitution says, but everyone made equal. Each man the image of every other; then all are happy… If you don’t want a man unhappy politically, don’t give him two sides to a question to worry him… give him one. Better yet, give him none… We stand against the small tide of those who want to make everyone unhappy with conflicting theory and thought.”  https://mediadwellers.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/beatty-speech-to-montag-excerpt.pdf

 

CNN’s Van Jones Secretly Helped Craft the Weak Trump Police Reform He Praised on TV

The ex-Obama aide’s willingness to help Trump—whom he once dubbed among the “worst people ever born”—has drawn the ire of liberal allies while gaining him fans in Jared and Kimye.

     On June 16, the 51-year-old Jones—a Yale Law School-trained attorney and former green energy jobs adviser in the Obama administration—provoked even more liberal distress and anger when he ladled praise on a so-called police reform initiative by President Donald Trump… CNN viewers weren’t informed that he had actually attended secret White House meetings with his new friend Jared Kushner, discussing ways to frame the presidential project… [DJT supporters are again irked by Jared’s influence.]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/cnns-van-jones-secretly-helped-craft-the-weak-trump-police-reform-he-praised-on-tv

 

Chicago man kills two teens after they asked how tall he was https://trib.al/CrUGzB4

 

Before ‘takedown’ of General Flynn, he was planning to audit John Brennan for running billions ‘off the books’ – Sidney Powell, attorney for retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, said her client, in his duties as the White House national security adviser, was prepared to “audit” the U.S. intelligence community.  That, according to the former federal prosecutor, is partly why federal agents “set up” Flynn…

https://www.lifezette.com/2020/06/before-takedown-of-general-flynn-he-was-planning-to-audit-john-brennan-for-running-billions-off-the-books/

 

@SidneyPowell1: @Jack [Twitter CEO] Why in the world did @Twitter suspend my account and remove everyone I was following?  Your abuse of conservative and patriotic free speech knows no bounds. Why no blue checkmark for me?

 

Washington Post Editor Karen Attiah Calls For ‘Revenge’ Against ‘White Women’

The Global Opinions Editor’s comments have since been slammed as “racist” and “violent.”

https://thefederalist.com/2020/06/29/washington-post-editor-karen-attiah-calls-for-revenge-against-white-women/#.XvoQrLPaPso.twitter

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

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