JULY 10//GOLD DOWN 50 CENTS TO $1798.80//SILVER UP 7 CENTS TO $18.69//HUGE TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX: 21.321 TONNES//HUGE PREMIUMS FUTURE/SPOT CONTINUES FOR SILVER AS THIS METAL IS SCARCE IN EUROPE AND IN THE USA/ANDREW MAGUIRE TALKS WITH CHRIS MARCUS ON THE SILVER FRAUD AT THE SLV AND JPMORGAN///CORONAVIRUS UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE GLOBE//CHINA VS USA UPDATES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1798.80  DOWN $0.50   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$18.69// UP 7 CENTS  London spot price

FRIDAY’S ARE GOOD DAYS FOR OUR BANKERS TO RAID ESPECIALLY AFTER 12 PM AS OUR STRONG PHYSICAL MARKETS IN LONDON ARE PUT TO BED.

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1798.50  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $18.72//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

AUG GOLD:  $1802.60  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE AUG /: $3.80

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $19.06…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :  37 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

the gold market continues to be broken as future prices are much higher than spot prices.  The comex is desperate to fix things but they have no available gold.

If one is to buy gold and or gold coins, the price is around $2600. usa per oz

and silver; $29.00 per oz//

 

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: YOU ARE NOW WITNESSING FIRST HAND THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAPER GOLD/SILVER AND THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF!!

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

today RECEIVING: 70/564

issued 500

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,799.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/09/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 07/13/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 5
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 102
135 H RAND 3
152 C DORMAN TRADING 11
226 C DIRECT ACCESS 1
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 92
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC 1
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 4
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 44
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 13
661 C JP MORGAN 500 70
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1
690 C ABN AMRO 2 2
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 17 62
800 C MAREX SPEC 41 102
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 3 18
905 C ADM 33
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 564 564
MONTH TO DATE: 6,671

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 564 NOTICE(S) FOR 56400 OZ (1.751 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  6671 NOTICES FOR 667100 OZ  (20.714 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

165 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 825,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 13,658 for 68.290 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9287  UP 30

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9238 DOWN $5

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $0.50 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL”?

STRANGE: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES

(AND NO DOUBT USED IN THE RAID TODAY)

 

 

GLD: 1,200.82 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE  SLV: A MONSTROUS PAPER DEPOSIT  OF 4.844 MILLION OZ//

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 515.795  MILLION OZ./

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 324 CONTRACTS FROM 176,125 DOWN  TO 175,801, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE TINY SIZED LOSS IN  OI OCCURRED WITH OUR 8 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A GOOD EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A SMALL INCREASE  IN SILVER STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.  WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 244 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   JULY: 0  AND SEP 553 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  553 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 553 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 553 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 2.765 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 8 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

81.75 MILLION OZ INITIALLY IN JULY.

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 8 CENTS).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE SMALL LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A TINY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL INCREASE IN STANDING OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY,  STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A  NET GAIN OF 229 CONTRACTS OR 1.145 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JULY:

4820 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 4820 CONTRACTS) OR 23.232 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 688 CONTRACTS OR 3.442 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY: 23.232 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 3.32% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,161.51 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EXP                               23,232 MILLION OZ/

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 60 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED  AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 324, WITH OUR 8 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAYTHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 553 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  229 CONTRACTS (DESPITE OUR 8 CENT LOSS IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 553 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A SMALL SIZED DECREASE OF 324 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 8 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $18.62 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.8475 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 121% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JULY  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 165 NOTICE(S) FOR 825,000  OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 81.695 million oz
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 3540 CONTRACTS TO 572,332 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE  OF $11.75 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY// WE  HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A GOOD EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $11.75 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 3    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  63

 

WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 4969 CONTRACTS  (15.46 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 8509 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 6559 AND DEC: 1950  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 8509.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 572,332. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4969 CONTRACTS: 3540 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8509 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4969 CONTRACTS OR 15.46 TONNES. THURSDAY, WE HAD A LOSS OF $11,75 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 15.46 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT FELL $11.75).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS  UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (8509) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (3540 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5725 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)ANOTHER HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN GOLD  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JULY MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS.. AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//THURSDAY//$11.75.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 25,923 CONTRACTS OR 2,592,300 oz OR 80.63 TONNES (7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3703 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 80.63 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 80.63/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.51% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3108.05  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       80.63 TONNES SO FAR..

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 324 CONTRACTS FROM 175,180 DOWN TO 175,816 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE TINY OI LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1)   HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL INCREASE STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR JULY AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 553 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 553 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 553 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 324  CONTRACTS TO THE 553 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 229 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.220 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED DESPITE THE 8 CENT LOSS IN PRICE///

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 8 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 553 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON PLUS HUGE FUTURE PREMIUMS OVER SPOT.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 67.27 POINTS OR 1.95%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 482.75 POINTS OR 1.84%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 238.48 POINTS OR 1.06%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .64%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0017 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0017 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0034 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED///CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 3540 CONTRACTS TO 572,332 MOVING FURTHER FROM  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS SMALL  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $11.75 IN GOLD PRICING /THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE (8509 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER HUMONGOUS STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//JULY DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) , …  AS WE ENGINEERED ANOTHER STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4969 CONTRACTS DESPITE GOLD’S CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN PRICE. NOTE THE FACT THAT LATELY THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ARE SMALL.. SOME OF OUR MAJOR BANKERS ARE BANNED FROM USING THE SERIAL FORWARDS.  IF THEY USE THIS VEHICLE IT MUST BE USED FOR PHYSICAL ONLY. SINCE THEY CANNOT TRANSFER TO LONDON THEY ARE FORCED TO INCREASE THEIR SHORT POSITIONS AT THE GOLD COMEX. AND SOME MOVED THEM OVER TO THE NEW 400 OZ LONDON ENHANCED VEHICLE.

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 3    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest RISES TO 63

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8509 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  AUG  6559 ,DEC 1950 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 8509 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  4969 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8509 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 3540 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A GOOD  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL COMEX OI LOSS,  A HUGE  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JULY DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION……AND WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE WE HAD A STRONG LOSS IN COMEX PRICE OF 11.75 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $11.75).  AND, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A GOOD 15.46 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 4969 CONTRACTS OR 496900 OZ OR 15.46 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  572,332 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 57.23 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1780 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1780/2200 OR 80.91% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 255,903 contracts//fair volume//hitting rock bottom//most traders have moved to London

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  362,456 contracts//  volume good //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

JULY 10 /2020

JULY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
1202.453 oz
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

547,853.000

OZ

BRINKS

 

17040  1/2

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
564 notice(s)
 56400 OZ
(1.754 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
184 contracts
(18,400 oz)
0.5723 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6671 notices
667,100 OZ
20.714 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

 

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

 

 

 

 

 

total deposit:  nil oz

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Delaware:  1202.453  oz

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  1202.453 oz

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1 //    

 

 

customer to dealer:

Manfra:  13,503.42 oz

 

 

 

 

The front month of JULY registered a total of 748 oi contracts FOR a GAIN of 77 contracts. We had 129 notices served on THURSDAY so we GAINED  206 contracts or an additional 20,600 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

 

Next comes August another strong delivery month and here the OI FELL BY 21,176  contracts DOWN to 345,131 contracts, as we begin our countdown to first day notice.

 

Sept saw another addition of 30 contracts to stand at 309.  Oct GAINED 194 contracts up to 39,503.

 

We had 564 notices filed today for 56,400 oz

 

FOR THE JULY 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 500 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 564 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 70 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 5 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6671) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY (748 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (564 x 100 oz per contract) equals 685,500 OZ OR 21.321 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (6671 x 100 oz + (748 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (564) x 100 oz which equals 685,500 oz standing OR 21.321 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JULY delivery month (a  non active delivery month).

We gained 206 contracts or an additional 20,600 oz will stand at the comex.

We are now witnessing an increase in queue jumping on a daily basis. Sooner or later they will be running out of metal to supply our longs.

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

302,293.430 oz PLEDGED  JULY 9// 2020  JPMORGAN:  9.40 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

 

657,424.187 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/july 2               20.448 tonnes

total pledged gold:  1,146,354.687 oz                                     35.65 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 373.86 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 21.321 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  13,166,141.07 oz or 409.52 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020/SOME JULY 9) which cannot be settled upon:  302,293.43, oz (or 9.402 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 657,424.187 oz added which cannot be settled:  20.448 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,146,354.687 oz or 35.65 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:  12,019,787.0  (373.86 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  12,019,787.0 (373.86 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,353,145.551 oz (633.06 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   33,519,286.568 oz 1042.59 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  916.25 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JULY 10/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A TINY SIZED 324 CONTRACTS FROM 176,125 DOWN TO 175,816 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,384 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE SMALL LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS DUE TO;   1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL INCREASE AMOUNT OF  SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE JULY CONTRACT MONTH ,  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

WE STILL HAVE A HUMONGOUS AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 553 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 553 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 553 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 324  CONTRACTS TO THE 553 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL GAIN OF 229 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.145 MILLION  OZ OCCURRED DESPITE THE 8 CENT LOSS IN PRICE///

 

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 8 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED 553 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE HUMONGOUS  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR THIS MONTH, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

JULY 10/2020

JULY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 610,334.832 oz
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
640,710.899 oz
CNT
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
165
CONTRACT(S)
(825,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2692 contracts
 13,460,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  13,658 contracts

68,290,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

ii) Into CNT:  600,247.299 oz

iii) Into Delaware:  40,563.600 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.744 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.47% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/324.985 million

 

total customer deposits today:  nil    oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

 

ii) Out of CNT  605,351.350  oz

iii) Out of Delaware:  4983.482 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 60,334.832   oz

We had 2 adjustments

dealer to customer:

Brinks:  397,048.250 oz

Scotia: 15,143.000 oz ???

 

 

total dealer silver: 126.229 million

total dealer + customer silver:  324.985 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The front month of July has an open interest of  2857 contracts, as we lost 25 contracts.  We had 37 notices served on THURSDAY, so we FINALLY GAINED a tiny 12 contracts or an additional 60,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of July as they refused to morph into a London based forwards.  Our banker boys will now be busy trying to find some scarce silver to put out fires elsewhere.

 

 

 

The next month after July is the non active month of  August and here  sees its open interest rose by 1 contracts UP to 813

The big September contract month sees a loss of 757 contracts down to 138,557.

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2020. contract month is represented by 165 contract(s) FOR 825,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 13,658 x 5,000 oz = 68,290,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY.(2857) and the number of notices served upon today 165 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 13,658 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (2857)- number of notices served upon today (165) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.equals 81,750,000 oz.  (A WHOPPER )

WE GAINED 12 CONTRACTS OR 60,000 OZ WILL  STAND FOR DELIVERY. SILVER IS STILL VERY SCARCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 61,828 CONTRACTS // volume good/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 108,856.,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume excellent/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 108,856 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 544 million  OZ  77.75% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 0.25% ((JULY 10/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO +.34% to NAV:   (JULY 10/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.25%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 17.21 TRADING 17.19///NEGATIVE 0.12

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.82 TONNES

JULY 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OX 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1202.57 TONNES

JULY 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.75 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1199.36 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 30//WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $5.03 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.46 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.39 TONNES

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.50 TONNES

JUNE 9//WITH GOLD UP $16.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES OF GOLD AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1125.48 TONNES

JUNE 8//WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.10 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.11 TONNES

 

JUNE 5//WITH GOLD DOWN $40.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.21 TONNES

JUNE 4//WITH GOLD UP $20.60: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD…A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1133.37 TONNES

JUNE 3//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 0.78 TONNES OF GLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1129.28 TONNES

JUNE 2//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1128.40 TONNES

JUNE 1//WITH GOLD UP $1.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES OF GOLD//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1123.14 TONNES

MAY 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///GLD INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 28//WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1119.05 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $.10 TODAY: A STRONG 2.34 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1119.05 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

JULY 10/ GLD INVENTORY 1200.52 tonnes*

LAST;  857 TRADING DAYS:   +257.00 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 757 TRADING DAYS://+435.11  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 4.844 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT  515.795 MILLION OZ

WHAT A FRAUD!!

JULY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 8.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.951 MILLION OZ/

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.118 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//VERY SURPRISING.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.753 MILLION OZ//

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ///

JULY 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.008 MILLION OZ

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.007 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE//// AND A LARGE DEPOSIT OF 1.212 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10/WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.605 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.849 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE WITHDRAWALS OF 932,000 MILLION OZ AND 1.491 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.240 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 648,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.663  MILLION OZ

JUNE 4//WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

 

JUNE 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 2//WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS 6.686 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 473.315 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 1//WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 466.629 MILLION OZ//

MAY 29//WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.796 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 463.273 MILLION OZ//

MAY 28//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE  CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.660 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.477 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.817 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 10.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

515.795 MILLION OZ.

 

 

 

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Market Watch’s Watts explains why safe haven gold and the stock market are now moving northbound

Watts/Market Watch/GATA)

Why ‘safe haven’ gold and the stock market are now moving the same direction

 Section: 

By William Watts
MarketWatch.com, New York
Thursday, July 9, 2020

Gold is traditionally thought of as a haven asset — a safe port in a storm. But that hasn’t stopped it from rising to a near nine-year high, and within striking distance of its record, even as equities and other assets traditionally viewed as risky remain buoyant as they rebound from the pandemic-inspired selloff suffered earlier this year.

Chalk it up, in part, to opportunity costs. Efforts by global central banks to push down interest rates, which have fallen into negative territory in real, or inflation-adjusted terms, in the U.S. and are outright negative in many parts of the world, mean that investors who hold gold aren’t missing out on the yield they would earn from holding bonds in more usual circumstances.

… 

As real yields turn negative, opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets essentially vanish, particularly when viewed through the historical lens of fiat currencies and their purchasing power,” wrote Jeff deGraaf, chairman of Renaissance Macro Research, in a note today.

“This provides a continued tailwind for gold,” he said referring to the chart below, which shows the gold price inverted versus the real Treasury yield curve. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-safe-haven-gold-is-acting-like-a-r…

END

iii) Other physical stories:

Only with Venezuelan gold? Other countries will find out soon enough that much of sovereign gold held in England has been leased out and never to be returned

(Ross/Infobric.org)

UK Commits “Highway Robbery” Of Venezuelan Gold, Says Academic

Authored by Johanna Ross via InfoBrics.org,

When it comes to Venezuela, Britain is suffering from split personality disorder. While the UK Foreign Office reportedly maintains ‘full, normal and reciprocal diplomatic relations’ with legitimately elected President Maduro’s government, and with Maduro’s UK ambassador, the British government has been actively supporting the self-appointed US-backed ‘leader’ Juan Guaido, who led the coup against Maduro in 2019.

Last week the High Court in London ruled that Juan Guaido was ‘unequivocally’ recognised as the President of Venezuela.

There’s just one problem with the ruling however: Juan Guaido isn’t the President.

He may have tried hard; he talked the talk, and walked the walk (clearly modelling himself on a cross between Justin Trudeau and Emmanuel Macron, with sleeves rolled up like Barack Obama). He had just the right youthful, liberal image to front the US led regime change campaign in the South American nation. But last year’s coup, supported by the US and Colombia, dramatically backfired after the Venezuelan military refused to back him.

Nevertheless, it has been in the British government’s interest to prop up the would-be Venezuelan leader. The High Court’s verdict was in a case brought to the court by Maduro’s government, which is trying to access $1bn of its gold currently held by the Bank of England. It’s pretty straightforward – the bank doesn’t want to pay out, and is using Maduro’s ‘contested’ leadership as a reason not to do so. Suddenly it matters that Maduro’s presidency is questionable, never mind the fact that he was democratically re-elected in 2018.

Juan Guaido claims that the funds from the Bank of England gold would be used to ‘prop up the regime’, while the Venezuelan government has insisted that the money would go towards managing the coronavirus pandemic. Maduro has even said that once the gold is sold the money will be transferred to the UN Development Programme. In any case, the reason seems irrelevant; when was the last time you or I had to justify a withdrawal from our own bank accounts?

I spoke recently to the National Secretary of the Venezuela Solidarity Campaign and senior lecturer at the University of Middlesex, Dr Francisco Dominguez, who said to me that the move by the High Court to block the transfer of Venezuelan gold constituted nothing more than ‘highway robbery’ and he condemned the UK’s use of Guaido in this case as a ‘legal device to steal Venezuela’s assets’. He stated:

It is abundantly clear the UK’s recognition of Guaido’s farcical ‘interim presidency’ has nothing to do with ‘democracy’ or ‘human rights’ but with ‘colonial pillage’. 

After all, there is nothing democratic or decent about Guaido: he colludes with Colombian narco-traffickers; he attempted a violent coup d’etat’; contracted US mercenaries to assassinate President Maduro and several Venezulean government high officials, vigorously promotes sanctions and aggression against his own nation, and he reeks of corruption.”

Dr Dominguez also pointed to direct collusion of the UK government with Guaido, as was recently uncovered by a British journalist. Newly obtained documents, exposed by John McEvoy, have recently shed light on the murky connection between the British government and the aspiring Venezuelan president. It was uncovered that a Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO) Unit named the Venezuela Reconstruction Unit has been created which has not been officially acknowledged by either country. In the documents it was revealed that  Juan Guaidó’s representative in the UK, Vanessa Neumann, had spoken with FCO officials about the sustenance of British business interests in Venezuela’s ‘reconstruction’. A conversation of this nature obviously stinks of regime change, given the fact Venezuela sits on the largest proven oil reserves in the world, and that Neumann has previously links to oil companies. Britain is placing its stake in Venezuela’s demise.

Formally the UK government has a different position. In relation to Venezuela’s gold, former Treasury Minister Robert Jenrick said back in 2019 in response to the parliamentary question ‘what the legal basis was for the Bank of England’s decision to freeze approximately 1125 gold bars stored by the Venezuelan central bank in November 2018.’, that it was a ‘matter for the Bank of England’. Jenrick maintained that HM Treasury only has direct control over the UK government’s own holdings of gold within its official reserves, which are held at the Bank of England.’

However the facts paint a different picture.

John Bolton’s White House memoir The Room Where It Happened’ reveals that UK Foreign Secretary at the time, Jeremy Hunt ‘was delighted to freeze Venezuelan gold deposits in the Bank of England so the regime could not sell the gold to keep itself going.’

As Bolton unashamedly admitted:

“These were the sort of steps we were already applying to pressure Maduro financially.”

The former National Security Advisor relates in his book how proud he was to have been the driving force behind the 2019 power grab:

“I was heartened that Maduro’s government promptly accused me of leading a coup.”

Bolton openly describes how they discussed ways of delegitimizing the Venezuelan government as Trump reportedly said “Maybe it’s time to put Maduro out of business.”

The evidence suggests that the UK complied fully in Bolton’s masterplan to unseat Maduro, and is continuing to work with the US to undermine the Venezuelan leadership; only in truly subtle British fashion, surreptitiously, hoping no-one would notice. Who knows, when, if ever, the Venezuelans will see their gold. But you can be sure they won’t be investing with the Bank of England any time soon.

end

Andrew Maguire talks with Chris Marcus on the shenanigans being played out by JPMorgan.

Andrew Maguire: DOJ Told JP Morgan To Reduce Silver Position

Last week the shocking news was that on the first day of the COMEX July silver delivery period, JPMorgan posted 30 million ounces of silver for delivery. Now, Andrew Maguire of Kinesis Money, who’s been a key witness in the Department of Justice investigation, reports that JP Morgan was told to by the DOJ to reduce its silver position as they negotiate a settlement.

(Harvey: spoiler alert..it did not happen)

Andrew also talked about the stunning recent silver inflows to SLV and the silver trusts, and explained how the number just simply don’t add up.

Especially with the silver price experiencing another sharp jolt to the upside, this is a timely interview you are going to want to see, so click to watch what Andrew had to say now!

Chris Marcus
July 9, 2020

JULY 10, 2020

end

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 7.0017/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  7.0034   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 67.27 POINTS OR 1.95%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 482.75 POINTS OR 1.94%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 238.48 POINTS OR 1.06%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 96.66/Euro RISES TO 1.1297

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.81/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 39.13 and Brent: 41.83

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.48%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.22% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.41%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.70: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.14

3k Gold at $1806.45 silver at: 18.70   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 20/100 in roubles/dollar) 71.05

3m oil into the 39 dollar handle for WTI and 41 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.81 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9411 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0632 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.48%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.59% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.27%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.8654..

Futures Slide, Follow China Lower After Beijing-Owned Funds Start Selling Stocks

US stock futures slipped on Friday as the buying frenzy in China fizzled and fears re-emerged that record increase in coronavirus cases could lead to another hit to Corporate America with several states delaying the easing of business restrictions. Treasuries jumped, sending five-year yields near a record low.

Chinese stocks slumped for the first time in over a week after Beijing acted to cool the speculative frenzy in its $9.5 trillion stock market, ending a euphoric eight-day surge that had fueled worries of a new bubble in the making. The selling in the Shanghai Composite started after Bloomberg reported that two government-owned funds announced plans to trim holdings of stocks that soared this week.

China’s National Council for Social Security Fund – the country’s national pension fund – said Thursday it intends to sell a stake of as much as 2% in People’s Insurance Company (Group) of China Ltd. The fund, which oversees about 2.2 trillion yuan ($314 billion) in assets, said the sale was part of its “regular divesting activities.” The stock dropped 7.4% in Shanghai, the most in five months. Additionally, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Co. – a smaller state-backed semiconductor fund aimed at fostering China’s homegrown chipmakers – announced plans to offload shares in three firms. Textile maker Wuxi Taiji Industry Co., Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co., and Beijing BDStar Navigation Co. fell at least 3.8%.

Separately, on Friday the state-run China Economic Times warned about the dangers of a “crazy” bull market, while Caixin reported that regulators had asked mutual fund companies to cap the size of new products. Meanwhile, foreign-based funds turned net sellers of Chinese shares for the first time this month on Friday, dumping a net 4.4 billion yuan, the most since late March. They had pumped a net 63 billion yuan across the border via exchange links in July.

“The signal could not be clearer — stocks have just become too hot for the regulators’ liking,” said Niu Chunbao, a fund manager at Shanghai Wanji Asset Management Co. “A slight dip or so may put their minds more at ease at this point.”

As a result, the Shanghai Composite closed down 2% and the SSE 50 Index of Shanghai’s largest stocks ended the day 2.6% lower. The index had closed Thursday within 2% of its intraday peak in 2015.

The end of China’s rally sent a shockwave around the globe sending US index futures modestly in the red and almost wiping out all of the week’s gains, while traders also focused on record deaths in Florida, Texas and California from the virus.  41 of the 50 U.S. states have reported an increase in COVID-19 cases over the last two weeks, while the country registered the largest single-day increase in new infections globally for the second day in a row on Thursday.  The surge has forced Americans to take new precautions, with several states backpedaling on reopening plans but likelihood of a lockdown similar to February and March seems unlikely, according to market experts.

“We’re going to see intermittent periods of shutdowns over the next year or so while we’re still grappling with this virus,” Erin Browne, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. said on Bloomberg TV. “But I wouldn’t expect we’re likely to see a wholesale shutdown of the U.S. economy like we saw earlier this year.”

At 7:45 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 89 points, S&P 500 e-minis were down 9.25 points, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 21.50 points. Energy stocks Occidental Petroleum and Exxon Mobil dropped 1.7% and 1% respectively in premarket trading, as oil prices retreated on concern about the pace of economic recovery and fuel demand.

In Europe, tech shares helped the Stoxx Europe 600 Index erase an earlier decline after Apple chipmaker TSMC posted revenue just above estimates for the June quarter. Carlsberg A/S climbed after it said the slump in western European beer sales has moderated. European stocks climbed to a session high, rising 0.7% as of noon London as all industry sectors turned positive. Autos lead gains, up 1.6%, with technology, chemicals and real estate among other subgroups rising 1% or more.

As noted above, Asian stocks fell, led by finance and materials, after rising in the last session. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 47% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Topix declined 1.4%, with Voltage and Nomura falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 1.95%, with Zheshang Bank and Genuine New posting the biggest slides

Attention now shifts to the second-quarter earnings season, which will begin with reports from big banks on Tuesday. Overall profits for S&P 500 firms are expected to plunge the most since the financial crisis.

In FX, the Dollar remains elevated after yesterday’s swift and sudden rebound on deteriorating sentiment surrounding fresh coronavirus outbreaks in the US and elsewhere, with the DXY getting very close to 97.000 again having fallen to a 96.233 low and failing to derive any initial momentum from encouraging weekly jobless claims data. However, the Greenback is paring some gains vs major counterparts ahead of PPI and the weekend as crude prices bounce on an upgrade in the IEA’s 2020 global oil demand forecast due to a smaller Q2 drop than previously envisaged. The yen rose versus all G-10 peers followed by the Swedish krona and Danish krone as the interbank market cleared out long positioning into the weekend, according to Asia-based FX traders. “The resurgence of the coronavirus, especially increased death tolls, is seen as a risk-off catalyst,” said David Lu, director at NBC Financial Markets Asia in Hong Kong. “That’s leading to yen buying.”

In rates, Treasuries resumed bull-flattening Friday as S&P 500 E-mini futures followed Asian equities lower weighing on risk sentiment. Even as 5-year yield touched a record low 0.256%, long-end outperformance sent 5s30s curve below 100bp for first time since May 15, approaching 100-DMA, support since mid-March. Treasury yields were lower by 1bp to 5bp across the curve, 10-year 0.586% after touching 0.568%, lowest since April 22 and within 3bp of a presumed convexity trigger level; it’s ~8bp lower on the week.

Elsewhere, oil traded around $39 a barrel in New York. In the U.K., yields on two- and five-year notes hovered near all-time lows amid speculation that the Bank of England may further ease monetary policy.

Looking at the day ahead, the data highlights include French and Italian industrial production for May, along with the Canadian jobs report for June and the June PPI reading from the US. We will also hear from the ECB’s Hernandez de Cos, while Singapore is holding a general election. Finally we could get more commentary on the Recovery Fund in Europe from the ECOFIN meeting press conference due at 13.15 CET.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 3,122.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 364.52
  • MXAP down 1% to 164.70
  • MXAPJ down 1.1% to 547.53
  • Nikkei down 1.1% to 22,290.81
  • Topix down 1.4% to 1,535.20
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.8% to 25,727.41
  • Shanghai Composite down 2% to 3,383.32
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 36,542.83
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 5,919.22
  • Kospi down 0.8% to 2,150.25
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to -0.478%
  • Euro up 0.02% to $1.1287
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.2 bps to 1.097%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.408%
  • Brent futures down 2.3% to $41.37/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,806.42
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.72

Top Overnight News

  • China acted to cool the speculative frenzy in its $9.5 trillion stock market, ending a euphoric eight-day surge that had fueled worries of a new bubble in the making.
  • The European Central Bank isn’t done expanding its bond-buying program yet, according to economists, despite recent remarks by policy makers that the outlook has brightened slightly.
  • Oil fell as the International Energy Agency said a jump in Covid-19 cases could derail the market recovery, while Libya signaled the potential restart of crude exports.

Asian stock markets were negative following a lacklustre performance across global peers amid lingering coronavirus concerns and as US-China tensions were stoked by several escalatory reportssuch as the US enacting sanctions on 4 Chinese individuals for human rights abuses including the Xinjiang security bureau director and a top member of the Chinese Communist Party. ASX 200 (-0.6%) was led lower by underperformance in the energy sector after the recent pullback in oil prices and amid ongoing lockdown headwinds, with the Victoria state Treasurer anticipating GDP to decline 14%, although the downside for the index was stemmed by resilience in the tech sector which continued to ride on the work from home bandwagon. Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) was subdued by the weight of the haven currency inflows and with some large retailers pressured including Fast Retailing, Seven & I and Lawson after weaker earnings. Hang Seng (-1.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (-2.0%) underperformed after PBoC inaction resulted to a total CNY 290bln liquidity drain this week and as anti-China sentiment persisted with the Trump administration said to be finalising regulations this week that will bar US government from purchasing goods and services from several Chinese tech firms including Huawei and ZTE. Furthermore, it was also reported that China state funds were also said to plan cutting holdings in some companies including PICC. Finally, 10yr JGBs were slightly higher due to the weakness in stocks and following the bull flattening stateside in the aftermath of a blockbuster 30yr auction, while the BoJ were also present in the market today for JPY 870bln on JGBs with an emphasis on 1-3yr and 5-10yr maturities. China state funds are said to be planning to cut holdings in PICC and other China-listed firms, with China’s National Council for Social Security Fund planning to sell up to 884.5mln A-shares in PICC or a 2% stake valued around USD 1bln during the next 6 months, citing the need for asset allocation and investment.

Top Asian News

  • China Points to Shrimp as Covid-19 Carrier After Salmon Debacle  (Harvey: a joke!!)
  • Tencent Is Said in Talks for Hong Kong-Listed Gaming Firm Leyou
  • Philippine Lawmakers Deny TV Giant ABS-CBN’s Franchise Bid
  • Empty Offices Growing in Tokyo as Virus Gives Tenants Pause

A choppy session for European equities as the region swings between gains and losses [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2%] as sentiment somewhat improves from the downbeat APAC session in early hours. Europe opened with broad-based losses of some 0.5% but the upside coincided with the IEA oil market reported which raised its global oil demand growth forecasts which noted that demand decline in Q2 was less severe than expected. Furthermore, the unveiling of the compromise EU recovery fund underpinned benchmarks amid attempts to narrow the rift among EU members, whilst unanimous backing is not needed, thus decreasing chances of a veto. Nonetheless, major bourses are mixed with no stand-out out/underperformer. Sectors are also mixed with little by way of a risk-tone to be derived, with the detailed breakdown providing no further meat on the bone. The IT sector outperforms following numbers from chip giant TSMC which topped revenue estimates; thus propping up fellow chip names such as STMicroelectronics (+5.0%), Infineon (+2%). The energy sector meanwhile remains the underperformer. Energy names meanwhile remain subdued amid price action in the complex with Shell (-0.7%) and BP (-0.3%). In terms of individual movers, LVMH (-0.7%) and Kering (-0.2%) are subdued amid source reports US may release a French tariff list targeting French wine, cheese and handbags, however, Pernod Ricard (+0.1%) holds its ground, potentially due to the recent announcement of French aid for the wine sector.

Top European News

  • England Eases Virus Rules to Open Gyms, Allow Outdoor Arts
  • ECB Seen Boosting Stimulus by December to Aid Fledgling Recovery
  • Italy Is Said to Be In Talks to Buy Into Telecom Italia Network
  • Dufry Retreats as MainFirst Cuts to Sell, Slaps on Street-Low PT

In FX, the Dollar remains elevated after yesterday’s swift and sudden rebound on deteriorating sentiment surrounding fresh coronavirus outbreaks in the US and elsewhere, with the DXY getting very close to 97.000 again having fallen to a 96.233 low and failing to derive any initial momentum from encouraging weekly jobless claims data. However, the Greenback is paring some gains vs major counterparts ahead of PPI and the weekend as crude prices bounce on an upgrade in the IEA’s 2020 global oil demand forecast due to a smaller Q2 drop than previously envisaged.

  • JPY – Notwithstanding the Buck’s renaissance, demand for the Yen has pushed Usd/Jpy down through 107.00 and a multi-month bull level at 106.90 to expose 106.75 and deeper lows, while Jpy crosses are also depressed on the aforementioned renewed risk aversion.
  • AUD/CAD/NZD – Hardly a surprise to see the activity/cyclical/commodity bloc underperforming, with the Aussie back around 0.6950, Loonie pivoting 1.3600 and Kiwi straddling 0.6550 having hit peaks around 0.7000, 1.3500+ and 0.6600 respectively on Thursday. Ahead for the Cad, jobs data for June will be watched closely for more signs of recovery following a rather downbeat Canadian economic and fiscal update.
  • EUR/GBP – Both narrowly mixed vs the Dollar, but struggling to keep sight of round numbers relinquished when the Usd took flight late in the EU session yesterday, and with the Euro also capped by decent option expiry interest between 1.1300-10 (1 bn) and bearish Eur/Gbp impulses. On that note, Eur/Usd is also eyeing some technical levels in the form of the 200 HMA (1.1272) and a Fib retracement (1.1262).
  • CHF/NOK/SEK – The Franc is softer across the board with any sign of safe haven positioning more than offset by the fact that SNB will be on the offer, while the Norwegian Crown is lagging due to the recoil in oil rather than inflation data that was somewhat mixed vs consensus. Conversely, the Swedish Krona is bucking risk-off leanings after Riksbank minutes reaffirming a high bar for reverting to a sub-zero repo rate and more likelihood of further stimulus via QE if required

In commodities, IEA raises 2020 oil demand forecast by 400k BPD to 92.1mln BPD; demand decline in Q2 was less severe than expected; 2021 demand rise is lower than previously expected due to improved 2020 recovery view; outlook skewed to the downside. Additionally, Global oil supply fell by 2.4mln BPD in June to a 9yr low. US production in May fell 1.3mln BPD MM and June fell by 500k BPD. Highlights that Libya’s oil production by end 2020 could be as much as 900k BPD higher than today.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%; Final Demand YoY, est. -0.2%, prior -0.8%
  • 8:30am: PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.1%; PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

“Back” and “hit” were needed by the market yesterday to restore rhythm after a choppy session of rising coronavirus cases, associated fears of further economic slowdowns, and potential political volatility. By the close, the S&P 500 was down by -0.56%. However following a Supreme court ruling concerning Mr Trump and also record fatalities being announced in some heavily affected US states, the index was down as much as -1.71% just prior to European markets closing. Following Europe closing their laptops, US stocks ground higher primarily on the strength of Technology and Consumer Discretionary stocks – the latter of which was primarily driven by Amazon (+3.29% yesterday). Once again that stark outperformance of tech stocks saw the NASDAQ as one of the few global indices positive on the day, up +0.53%. Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 gave up its weekly gains with a -0.77% decline, as other bourses including the FTSE 100 (-1.73%) and the CAC 40 (-1.21%) suffered losses too. The DAX (-0.04%) was almost the exception thanks to a +3.99% advance from SAP after the company reported stronger than expected preliminary results for Q2 revenue.

Overnight markets in Asia are trading down with the Nikkei (-0.25%), Hang Seng (-1.17%), Shanghai Comp (-1.05%), Kospi (-0.67%) and Asx (-0.33%) all seeing losses. Declines for Chinese markets came with news that two state-backed funds have said that they plan to trim holdings in a sign that the government wants to slow down the rally. In FX, the US dollar is up +0.17%. Futures on the S&P 500 are also down -0.23% while WTI crude oil prices are down c. -1%.

In other news, the Fed’s balance sheet shrank for a fourth week, with the total size back below $7 tn, as emergency loans extended to primary dealers and foreign central banks to shore up dollar liquidity at the depth of the COVID-19 crisis matured. Short-term cash loans to dealers and foreign central banks repurchase agreements, fell to 0 (vs. $442bn at peak in mid-March) in the week through July 8 while Foreign-exchange swaps with the US central bank’s counterparts abroad dropped to $179 bn (from $449bn at peak in end of May). The decline underscores some normalisation in the working of the financial markets since the peak of the crisis.

Yesterday brought further negative news on the coronavirus pandemic as the case numbers continued to rise across the world. In the US, new cases were over 80,000 for the first time, rising by +2.8%, the highest daily increase since May. Fatalities are starting to rise slowly as well but still not at the pace of the first wave. Florida reported a further 120 deaths in what was a daily record, while the number of cases rose by a further 4%, compared to the average weekly rise of 5%. California recorded a record one day rise in fatalities as well, however the Governor cautioned that the data included some delayed reporting. Cases in the state rose by over 11,000, above the 8040 7-day average. In Arizona, there was a further 3.7% rise or just over 4000 cases. This was the highest daily rise in a week, while the percentage increase was in-line with the 7-day average. Hopefully the somewhat slowing caseloads in these heavily affected states means that the recent acceleration of cases is slowing somewhat following some health measures being reinstituted over a week ago.

Here in the UK, we got the news that indoor gyms and swimming pools will be reopening from July 25. While some recreational team sports can begin as soon as this weekend, starting with cricket tomorrow. The club I am the President of (I’ve kinda retired) are playing their first matches tomorrow. They are very excited. Outdoor swimming pools can reopen tomorrow as well, with beauticians, salons and spas reopening Monday. However, in spite of Chancellor Sunak’s fresh economic support package the previous day, further retail job losses were announced, including 4,000 at Boots and another 1,300 at John Lewis. That’s 30,000 retail jobs lost over the last 2-3 weeks according to Sanjay Raja in our U.K. economics team.

One piece of more positive news yesterday came thanks to a better-than-expected reading from the US initial weekly jobless claims, which fell to 1.314m in the week through July 4 (vs. 1.375m expected). That’s the 14th consecutive week of falls since the peak of 6.867m back at the end of March, and the -99k reduction on the previous week is the biggest in 4 weeks. Furthermore, the continuing claims number for the previous week through June 27 was also better-than-expected at 18.062m (vs. 18.8m expected), with the insured unemployment rate falling to 12.4%, easing fears that the labour market recovery could be at risk of stalling. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that the 1.314m initial claims figure is still well above the pre-Covid record of 695k, so there’s still a long way to go before a return to labour market normality.

Staying with the US, yesterday saw Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden unveil the first part of his economic plan, with the tagline “Build Back Better”. The message was delivered in the swing state of Pennsylvania, not far from his childhood hometown of Scranton. Former VP Biden called for stricter new rules to “Buy American”, while leveraging tax and investment policy to create manufacturing jobs in the US, and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. Mr. Biden’s plan specifically proposed a $300bn increase in government spending on research and development for new technologies like electric vehicles and 5G cellular networks, as well as an additional $400 billion in federal spending on US manufactured products. On the topic of paying for his economic plan as well as the recovery from the coronavirus, Mr. Biden has proposed to offset much of spending plans with nearly $4tr in tax raises. These would largely be done by reversing some of President Trump’s tax cuts.

Markets are likely to pay increasing attention to the former VP over the coming weeks, since his continued strong performance in the polls has forced investors to consider the implications of a Biden presidency, not just on domestic policy but also on what it could mean for global trade and the USA’s relations with China and the EU. Biden now leads President Trump by 9.5pts according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, and this frontrunner status has been increasingly reflected in betting and prediction markets too, with both PredictIt (60%) and the Betfair Exchange (63%) now putting him in pole position for the White House. Meanwhile, the President got news that he will most likely be able to keep his personal financial records out of public record until after the November election, after the Supreme Court ruling blocked Congress from subpoenaing his records. The court ruled that federal appeals courts needed to close scrutinise Trump’s contentions that the document demands are unnecessary and would be too intrusive. In the other case, the Supreme Court ruled that a New York grand jury could receive President Donald Trump’s financial records, with the Chief Justice Roberts saying, “No citizen, not even the president, is categorically above the common duty to produce evidence when called upon in a criminal proceeding.” Regardless it is unlikely, Mr. Trump will see those documents unsealed prior to November. As noted above, the S&P fell -0.5% following the initial ruling, before the losses accelerated as elevated cases numbers were announced. The latter continues to be the potentially more damaging factor for the President’s reelection odds.

Turning elsewhere, core sovereign bonds rallied yesterday as investors sought out safe assets, with 10yr Treasury yields falling -5.1bps to close at 0.614%, their lowest level in over 2 months, just as the dollar strengthened by +0.28% in its biggest move up in 2 weeks. Bund yields saw their own -2.3bps move lower, while in the UK 5yr gilt yields fell by -1.9bps to a fresh record low of -0.06%. While we’re on the UK, we should mention that once again there seemed to be little progress in the Brexit negotiations, with the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier tweeting yesterday that the latest discussions this week “confirm that significant divergences remain”.

One safe haven that didn’t manage to sustain its advance yesterday was gold, which fell -0.30% to come down from its 8-year high the previous day. Other commodities struggled too, with Brent Crude (-2.17%) and WTI (-3.13%) both suffering in line with the broader move lower in risk assets. Copper prices continued to power forward for an 8th straight day however, climbing to a fresh 5-month high.

To the day ahead now, and the data highlights include French and Italian industrial production for May, along with the Canadian jobs report for June and the June PPI reading from the US. Otherwise there isn’t a great deal happening, though we will hear from the ECB’s Hernandez de Cos, while Singapore is holding a general election. Finally we could get more commentary on the Recovery Fund in Europe from the ECOFIN meeting press conference due at 13.15 CET.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 67.27 POINTS OR 1.95%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 482.75 POINTS OR 1.84%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 238.48 POINTS OR 1.06%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .64%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 7.0017 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 7.0017 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 7.0034 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED///CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/HONG KONG/USA

Chinese banks are now preparing for the “worst case” scenario: being cut off from SWIFT  and a run on the Hong Kong banks

(zerohedge)

Chinese Banks Preparing For “Worst Case” Scenario: Being Cut Off From SWIFT, Hong Kong Bank Runs

In the latest escalation over China’s de facto annexation of Hong Kong, Reuters reports that Chinese state lenders are “revamping contingency plans” in anticipation of the soon to be enacted U.S. legislation (just waiting for Trump’s signature) that would penalize banks for serving officials who implement the new national security law for Hong Kong.

In a “worst-case scenario” under consideration by Chinese commercial megabanks Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the lenders are said to be looking at the possibility of being cut off from U.S. dollars or losing access to U.S. dollar settlements, two Reuters sources said.

The worst-case scenario also envisions what would happen in the event of a run on its branches in Hong Kong if customers feared that it would run out of U.S. currency, one of the sources said (this is the scenario discussed in “If 500,000 Rich Hong Kongers Leave The City, The HKD Peg Would Surely Collapse“). The scenario was also looking at the experience of banks in Iran, the same person said. Iranian banks have been hit from time to time by U.S. sanctions dating back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

“We are hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst. You never know how things will turn out,” one of the sources said.

In a milder scenario being looked at by the Agricultural Bank of China (AgBank), lenders would need to find ways to address the problem of clients blacklisted by the United States, especially those who might face a sudden loss of liquidity.

As Reuters adds, the contingency planning has been initiated by the banks themselves, who have the most to lose should the US effectively trigger a massive dollar bank run.

As Reuters calculates, Bank of China, the country’s most international lender, had the biggest exposure of the country’s big four lenders to the greenback at the end of 2019, with about $433 billion in liabilities. China’s top four banks, which also include ICBC, China Construction Bank and AgBank, had a combined 7.5 trillion yuan ($1 trillion) in U.S. dollar liabilities at the end of 2019, annual reports show.

According to the report, at least three state-run leasing firms, including an ICBC unit and CSIC Leasing, are also making contingency plans. Leasing firms are often heavily reliant on dollar borrowing to fund purchases of aircraft, machinery and facilities.

China’s contingency plans are in response to the unanimous passage in the House and Senate of a bill last week which seeks to impose financial sanctions on Chinese banks in response to the National Security Law. It has yet to be signed into law by President Donald Trump. The bill calls for sanctions on Chinese officials and others who help violate Hong Kong’s autonomy and on financial institutions that do business with them. But it does not spell out what the sanctions would look like.

“There are sanctions in this bill which could be interpreted to prevent a bank from clearing some dollar transactions via U.S. institutions, but unlike other congressional sanctions bills there are not specific provisions mandating it,” said Nick Turner, a lawyer specialising in sanctions and anti-money laundering at Steptoe & Johnson in Hong Kong.

Aside from its contingency planning, China has said it would “launch a counterattack against US hegemony” if Trump was to block access of Chinese banks to dollar funding and the SWIFT payment system

SGH Macro have noted that countermeasures from China could include a speeding up of the use of the Renminbi for China’s own parallel Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), a surge in issuance of RMB denominated loans to Belt and Road Initiative countries, a push for greater RMB use through the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) crude oil futures, and an acceleration of the implementation of China’s Digital Currency Electronics Payment (DCEP), the first digital currency issued by a central bank.

end
Why has the Chinese bourses up dramatically these past 8 sessions….is it a scheme to bail out hte rich?
(zerohedge)

Is China’s Stock Market Bubble Simply A Massive Reverse-Robin-Hood Scheme To Bail Out The Rich?

Without a doubt, the Chinese investor is “all-in” again. As we detailed earlier, there has been a massive surge in retail accounts opening margin accounts with margin-trading account balances rising at a faster pace than at the peak of speculative frenzy in 2014/2015...

Source: Bloomberg

Five years on from that euphoria, it’s deja vu all over again as millions of ‘home-gamers’ turn back to the markets, under the umbrella of government suggestions to do so… this won’t end well (again).

“Right now, I’m feeling invincible,” says one 36-year-old who works at a tech startup.

“There’s no way I can lose!”

From everything the state-owned media is telling mom-and-pop Chinese investors, this is all a great opportunity to create wealth and lift up the masses (via mass speculation).

However, as a new research paper publish on VoxChina details, this government-sponsored buying frenzy in stocks is anything but a path to prosperity for the vast majority of China’s citizenry.

Using comprehensive administrative data from China, we document a substantial increase in inequality of wealth held in risky assets by Chinese households in the 2014–2015 bubble-crash episode: the top 0.5% households in the equity market gained, while the bottom 85% lost, 250B RMB through active trading in this period, equating to 30% of each group’s initial equity wealth.

In comparison, the return differential between the top and bottom groups in periods of a relatively calm stock market is an order of magnitude smaller.

In other words, during the period when the Shanghai Composite Index climbed more than 150% before crashing 40%, the three academics found that the rich ended up richer and the poor poorer as an approximately equal RMB250 billion was redistributed from the lower wealth cohorts to the higher wealth cohorts – dramatically widening inequality.

The researchers broke the investors down into four groups based on the value of their accounts, ranging from below 500,000 yuan to over 10 million yuan.

The bottom wealth group accounted for 85% of all individual accounts, while the top wealth group made up 0.5%. Households altogether accounted for 87% of trading volume, confirming the notion that China is largely a retail market.

Wealthy investors seems to be fairly good at timing the market, while the poor are suckers. The top 0.5% households added to their exposure during the rally, while the bottom 85% cut their holdings. Shortly after the peak, the wealthy quickly exited the market, selling their shares to smaller households and corporations.

The bottom 85% of households lose 250B RMB from July 2014 to December 2015, while the top 0.5% gain 254B RMB in this 18-month period.

In stark contrast, the study finds that wealth redistribution in calm market conditions is an order of magnitude smaller than that in the bubble-crash episode.

Their key finding then is as follows:

The key takeaway from our study is that the heterogeneity in market timing and stock selection ability between the poor and the ultra-wealthy, while also present in calm periods, is greatly amplified in bubble-crash episodes, when both volatilities and trading volume spike.

In other words – officially-sanctioned (central bank or otherwise) bubbles in stock markets amplify inequality and crush the relative household wealth of the average joe far more than in a more ‘normal’ market environment.

The findings suggest some rather uncomfortable implications for the world’s central planners (especially if the hordes find out about this reverse-Robin-Hood scheme)…

It is often believed that greater stock market participation (or participation in any other risky financial market) is a path to prosperity and equality, especially in developing countries where financial literacy and market participation are generally low. However, if the poor, less financially sophisticated invest actively in financial markets that are prone to bubbles and crashes, such participation can be detrimental to their wealth.

This is particularly concerning given the recent finding that salient early life experiences have long-lasting impacts on individuals’ economic decisions decades later.

Consequently, policymakers and academics must emphasize that while greater stock market participation can be welfare-improving – especially for the poor – active investment by the poor will likely result in the exact opposite.

And, just in case you thought smugly that “us Americans know far better than those silly speculative muppets in China,” think again (even though retail accounts represent a far greater aspect of Chinese markets than in the US)…

As we detailed previously,the exact same pattern of reverse-Robin-Hood-ism is occurring in US equity markets. The two following charts indicate that as recessions begin, the top 1% begins to sell their holdings, while the bottom 90% continues to try and “buy the dip”.

The first chart shows the top 1% dumping as the market falls entering recession. Of late, we can see that selling has happened in spurts by the top 1%:

For the bottom 90% it’s just the opposite: the vast majority of unsophisticated retail investor start to chase momentum at the worst possible time, as they buy stocks en masse just as a recession begins, which in turn craters the market. In the Goldman chart below, we can see that the share of equities owned by the 90% jumps just as recession begin.

And no – you’re not the one buying at the lows.

In laymens terms, the rich dump their stock to the poor just before the market crashes.

The technical term is “distribution.”

As Bloomberg’s Ye Xie noted so eloquently, “it appears that the boom-bust was one effective way for the poor to be robbed by the rich.”

end

 

HONG KONG

In Hong Kong, USA banks and European banks operating here are conducting “emergency audits of clients for exposure to USA sanctions

(zerohedge)

Hong Kong Banks Conducting “Emergency Audits” Of Clients For Exposure To US Sanctions

Shortly after we reported that in anticipation of soon-to-be-enacted US sanctions – dubbed the Hong Kong autonomy act – which will penalize Chinese banks for serving officials who implement the new National Security Law in Hong Kong, Chinese commercial megabanks such as Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) were looking at the possibility of being cut off from U.S. dollars or losing access to U.S. dollar settlements, as well as planning for a run on Hong Kong branches if customers feared these could run out of U.S. currency, the FT reportsthat US and European banks in Hong Kong are conducting emergency audits of their clients to identify Chinese and Hong Kong officials and corporates that could face US sanctions over a new national security law.

According to the report, at least two large international banks in Hong Kong were studying which of their clients and partners might be exposed to sanctions under the Autonomy act and with which they might have to terminate their business relationships.

A person at one of the banks said that cutting off the clients could hit revenues from Chinese banks and the country’s state-owned enterprises, but that could not be helped. “If they are sanctioned [we] can’t touch them,” the FT source said.

To be sure, there are plenty of banks that don’t want to jeopardize their goodwill with SWIFT: foreign banks such as HSBC, Standard Chartered and Citibank have retail outlets in Hong Kong, while global investment banks JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, UBS and others have offices in the Asian financial hub. Large Chinese banks with international operations, such as Bank of China (Hong Kong), are also dominant in the city. In addition, the sanctions could hit the territory’s international fund managers and insurers.

“Some of them are going through that exercise of looking at their existing client base and seeing where the risks are,” said Chen Zhu, a lawyer at Davis Polk who advises institutions on the impact of economic sanctions.

While it remains unclear just how forcefully US would pursue its sanctions in Hong Kong, these could range from freezing the property of individuals and companies to cutting them out of the US financial system. They could also stop banks from conducting foreign exchange transactions over which the US has jurisdiction,implying that Washington could try to curb their access to dollars, a move which is seen by many as a nuclear option.

The act could force financial institutions to choose between doing business with the US or China, lawyers said. Hong Kong’s national security law makes it illegal to comply with US sanctions against Hong Kong and China.

Another person at a bank who was familiar with the matter said: “I think at this stage everyone sensible is taking a look through their client lists and mapping out the various different scenarios.”

“It’s speculative because the list isn’t out yet and our assumption is that it may not be that long. But the situation at the moment means you also have to consider worse scenarios where it does have an impact on your business and you need to plan how to react,” the person said.

US officials are expected to unveil details of the list in the months following the introduction of the act.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s financial industry discussed the potential conflict between the Chinese and US laws at a meeting with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the territory’s central bank, this week. But few expect firm advice on how business and banks can ensure compliance with the national security law, which outlaws subversion, secession, terrorism and colluding with foreign forces but has been criticized for being vaguely defined. “Who is going to tell [Chinese president] Xi Jinping your law needs a bit more clarity,” said one person at a bank who was familiar with the matter.

Kher Sheng Lee, head of Hong Kong’s Alternative Investment Management Association, said hedge funds typically outsourced sanctions compliance to fund administrators. But some of the “more proactive” funds would also be examining how exposed they were to potentially sanctioned individuals and companies under the act.

Mr Lee said these funds were expecting the impact to be “quite minimal”.

“If the name is caught up on the list they would have to explore appropriate steps, including effecting a compulsory redemption and expelling that investor out of the fund. Unless there are major investors on the list, I expect this is something they will be able to manage,” he said.

Most, however, appear to be in denial: as the FT concludes, many bankers in the city argued that there was a lot of “bluff and bluster” from the US on Hong Kong. They said the implementation of the act could be much less severe than expected, especially as the timeframe for the implementation of the sanctions could stretch beyond the US election.

“Financial institutions are concerned as there is uncertainty and they are looking for additional guidance from US agencies,” said Nicholas Turner of Steptoe, who advises financial institutions on sanctions compliance.

It is this belief that Trump is ultimately bluffing and merely posturing in his hardline stance toward China that has resulted in virtually no impact on risk assets. Some, however, like Rabobank’s Michael Hartnett, believe that once the laws have been passed, it is largely out of the hands of both Xi and Trump, as the escalation is now out of both their hands, and it is only a matter of time before global stock markets realize that the world’s two biggest superpowers are now in a state of cold war.

END

CHINA/USA

This is a must must read:  a very big Communist party official penned an article in Chinese newspapers. Zhou claims that both China and USA are headed for a complete economic decoupling.  He explains beautifully what is going to happen and I agree with him

(zerohedge)

Top Communist Party Official: China, US Headed For “Complete Economic Decoupling”

It’s fair to say that tensions between the US and China have escalated to levels unseen since the days of the Nixon Administration, when the bilateral relationship between the two countries finally began as the Communists abandoned their commitment to isolation and insulation from the capitalist west.

Though it has never garnered much attention in the headlines, the US Navy has increasingly flexed its military muscle in the contested South China Sea, which Beijing claims as sovereign Chinese territory, despite an ICC ruling repudiating China’s claims to some of these reefs and islands in the south and east china seas.

Over the past week, the Navy sent two aircraft carriers to begin some of the largest military exercises that US forces have ever hosted in the South China Sea, a show of strength with a clear message: That the US stands ready to counter China’s military ambitions in the Pacific.

A reporter for the Nikkei Asian Review noted Thursday that a former high-ranking CCP official this week published an editorial in a key academic journal that appears to cut against the Party line, and suggest an even more radical solution: complete economic decoupling from the US.

The author is careful to address the fact that isolationism has a bad history in the 20th Century in China: Instead of China going it alone, Zhou Li, a 65-year-old former deputy head of the Chinese Communist Party’s International Liaison Department, argues that a competing “yuan-based” economic bloc must emerge to rival the dollar-based financial system.

In a commentary piece, a writer for Nikkei breaks down Zhou’s argument:

It has been a tense first week of July in the seas of Asia.

While two U.S. aircraft carriers, the USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Nimitz, launched hundreds of aircraft daily into the skies above the South China Sea, China was conducting naval exercises in the same sea. In a rare and symbolic move, the People’s Liberation Army Navy also carried out live-fire drills in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea.

Amid the tensions, one published article has been the talk of the town in many Chinese circles. Written on the assumption that the novel coronavirus will disrupt China and the world for an extended period, the content is highly controversial.

The article predicts industrial supply chains being torn up, a China-U.S. decoupling and a world split into dollar and yuan economic blocs.

The author is Zhou Li, a 65-year-old former deputy head of the Chinese Communist Party’s International Liaison Department, a division in charge of party-led diplomacy. His views notably differ from the official Chinese government line; they are also radical.

Zhou says Chinese must prepare:

  1. For the deterioration of Sino-U.S. relations and the full escalation of the struggle.
  2. To cope with shrinking external demand and a disruption of supply chains.
  3. For a new normal of coexisting with the novel coronavirus pandemic over the long term.
  4. To leave the dollar hegemony and gradually realize the decoupling of the yuan from the dollar.
  5. For the outbreak of a global food crisis.
  6. For a resurgence of international terrorism.

Zhou does not shy from painting a grim picture of the Chinese economy, and his wording clearly differs from that of official documents prepared by government bureaucrats.

“Many international economic organizations such as the International Monetary Fund have issued reports downgrading global economic growth this year to as much as minus 4.9%, the worst economic recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s,” Zhou wrote.

The article goes on: “The order log at our exporters has been greatly reduced. Production at enterprises upstream and downstream has stalled. International transportation logistics have been blocked. Raw materials are lacking and plants are unable to deliver their products.

This phenomenon is putting huge pressure on our stable growth and job security.”

While not spelling it out, Zhou was hinting that China’s current economic situation is so harsh that it too could post zero or negative growth.

It is precisely the “black swan” – a serious incident that defies conventional wisdom and is unforeseen – that President Xi Jinping has been warning about.

Furthermore, Zhou indicated that the yuan bloc is on its back foot. “The U.S. controls the main channel for international payment and clearing, namely through SWIFT,” he wrote, noting that the international payment information of Chinese, Russian and Iranian companies is in Washington’s hands.

Disrupted supply chains would inevitably deliver a blow to the 5G strategy of Chinese telecoms equipment maker Huawei.

If Zhou’s predictions are correct, various future plans of Xi’s would crumble.

But there is an even bigger problem.

If China barrels ahead to go beyond building an economic bloc and chooses to isolate itself, it will no doubt revert to the world before its accession to the World Trade Organization at the end of 2001, a stepping stone for the high economic growth that followed.

Worse, China may travel back in time to before it established diplomatic ties with the U.S. in 1979, during the Cold War.

China’s historic rapprochement with the U.S. came a few years after the end of the 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution, a political campaign launched by Mao Zedong, during which numerous innocent people became victims after being stigmatized as counterrevolutionaries.

The Cultural Revolution followed the 1958-1961 Great Leap Forward, a reckless campaign also launched at the behest of Mao to pursue a big increase in agricultural and industrial production. The campaign failed, and a huge number of people starved to death.

To be sure, Xi has recently issued an order to prepare for the worst, including in China’s relations with the U.S., using the expression “bottom-line thinking,” or assuming the worst.

But until now, it had been taboo in China to refer to just how far the situation surrounding China might deteriorate due to the “new Cold War.”

“In the six months since the outbreak, the US ruling authorities – including the Trump administration and the U.S. Congress – have continued to strengthen their pressure on China,” Zhou wrote, citing examples such as canceling preferential treatment for Hong Kong and sending warships to the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

He said the U.S. attempted to write “China “Virus” into U.N. Security Council resolutions and that it was trying to seize U.S. Treasury bonds purchased by China as compensation for the pandemic.

Zhou is not a mere scholar. He is a figure who was close to the center of the party’s diplomatic nerve center.

Furthermore, his article appeared in a newspaper published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government-affiliated think tank. It appeared as part of a special feature about “a community with a shared future for humanity.”

Amid a compilation of articles praising Xi’s concept of a “community with a shared future for humanity,” Zhou’s article oddly stands out. It was as if to say that the “community” Xi envisions is that of an economic bloc.

The article has sparked a torrent of interpretations and speculation as to why China dared to reveal a doomsday scenario.

In a straightforward interpretation, Zhou’s article could be an attempt at preemptive-damage control ahead of a sudden move toward decoupling, which would rattle the Chinese people and could lead to social unrest.

The article has left Chinese readers with a sense of resolve. “China will never lose,” and, “Beat the U.S.” are frequent comments left by those who read it.

Some Chinese have reacted coolly to the article. “U.S.-China decoupling is a pipe dream,” one reader said. “There is no way that we can get along through such a method.” This view is shared by other skeptical readers.

Others say it could be in line with the traditional way of expressing views euphemistically. While seeming to be loyal to the party, these euphemistic articles often level criticism or give advice to the party.

In the second half of his article, Zhou touched on higher food prices, which have already been laid bare, and the possible coming of a global food crisis.

In the past, China, the world’s biggest importer of soybeans, gave up on food self-sufficiency as it pursued industrialization. Without an international environment that helps the global economy to thrive, China could not feed its people.

Some say Zhou’s article could be an indirect expression of dissatisfaction toward a current leadership team that is running out of control.

It is of great interest how Zhou, a former diplomat stationed in Moscow, analyzed the self-destruction of the Soviet Union after it was driven into an economic corner.

The demise of the Soviet Union is a topic in which Xi himself has been interested. He sees it as a bad example that China must avoid.

He once said, “Why did the Soviet Union disintegrate? Why did the Soviet Communist Party collapse? An important reason was that their ideals and convictions wavered.”

“Finally, all it took was one careless word from Mikhail Gorbachev to dissolve the Soviet Communist Party, and a great party was gone,” he said.

Xi made the remarks in Guangdong Province in December 2012, shortly after taking the helm of the Chinese Communist Party as its general secretary.

Xi is firmly determined to protect his communist rule at any cost and prevent any moves that could lead to “color revolutions.”

The introduction of the highly controversial national security law in Hong Kong is one piece in this puzzle.

In mid-June, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who signed the “phase one” trade deal with the U.S. in January as Xi’s economic advisor, hinted at another piece of the puzzle — an economy mainly based on domestic circulation.

That smacks of the Mao Zedong-style “self reliance” policy Xi mentioned shortly after the U.S-China trade war erupted.

What is Zhou’s true motive for laying out the worst-case scenario? Will China indeed decouple from U.S.?

Is it really possible for the powers to avoid a military clash?

The article has raised more questions than answers.

* * *

Source: Nikkei Asian Review

 end
CHINA HONG KONG/VIROLOGIST/COVID 19
 A big story:  The very important virologist from Hong Kong who was asked to review what was going on with the COVID 19 escaped on a flight to the USA and is in hiding: she reveals all!
(zerohedge)

Chinese Virologist Flees Hong Kong, Accuses Beijing Of COVID-19 Cover-Up

A highly respected Chinese virologist has fled Hong Kong and says that the Chinese government knew about COVID-19 long before they claim they did, and that her supervisors – some of the top experts in the field – ignored research she was conducting at the onset of the pandemic which she says could have saved lives, according to an exclusive interview with Fox News.

Dr. Li-Meng Yan, who specialized in virology and immunology at the Hong Kong School of Public Health, fled Hong Kong on April 28 on a Cathay Pacific flight to the United States, knowing that if she were caught she could be jailed or “disappeared.”

She adds that they likely had an obligation to tell the world, given their status as a World Health Organization reference laboratory specializing in influenza viruses and pandemics, especially as the virus began spreading in the early days of 2020.

Yan, now in hiding, claims the government in the country where she was born is trying to shred her reputation and accuses government goons of choreographing a cyber-attack against her in hopes of keeping her quiet.

Yan believes her life is in danger. She fears she can never go back to her home and lives with the hard truth that she’ll likely never see her friends or family there again.

Still, she says, the risk is worth it. –Fox News

“The reason I came to the U.S. is because I deliver the message of the truth of COVID,” Yan told Fox from an undisclosed location.

Yan says she was one of the first scientists in the world to study COVID-19 (aside from Wuhan researchers, perhaps) after he supervisor, Dr. Leo Poon, asked her to look into “the odd cluster of SARS-like cases coming out of mainland China at the end of December 2019,” according to the report.

“The China government refused to let overseas experts, including ones in Hong Kong, do research in China,” she said. “So I turned to my friends to get more information.”

Yan’s mainland colleagues – one of whom worked at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, allegedly told Yan on December 31 that the virus was transmissible between humans long before the CCP or the WHO reversed course and admitted this was possible. After she told her boss of this, “he just nodded,” she says.

Days after her CCP contacts told her about human-to-human transmission, the WHO put out a statement on January 9 saying: “According to Chinese authorities, the virus in question can cause severe illness in some patients and does not transmit readily between people… There is limited information to determine the overall risk of this reported cluster.”

The cover-up

Yan said that discussion between colleagues in China about the disease took a sharp turn after “doctors and researchers who had been openly discussing the virus suddenly clammed up.” Contacts in Wuhan went completely dark and others warned not to ask them about the virus – telling Yan “We can’t talk about it, but we need to wear masks.”

“There are many, many patients who don’t get treatment on time and diagnosis on time,” said Yan, adding “Hospital doctors are scared, but they cannot talk. CDC staff are scared.”

She said she reported her findings to her supervisor again on Jan. 16 but that’s when he allegedly told her “to keep silent, and be careful.”

As he warned me before, ‘Don’t touch the red line,'” Yan said referring to the government. “We will get in trouble and we’ll be disappeared.”

She also claims the co-director of a WHO-affiliated lab, Professor Malik Peiris, knew but didn’t do anything about it.

Peiris also did not respond to requests for comment. The WHO website lists Peiris as an “adviser” on the WHO International Health Regulations Emergency Committee for Pneumonia due to the Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV.

Yan was frustrated, but not surprised –Fox News

“I already know that would happen because I know the corruption among this kind of international organization like the WHO to China government, and to China Communist Party,” said Yan. “So basically… I accept it but I don’t want this misleading information to spread to the world.”

WHO denies that Professor Malik Peiris directly works for the organization, telling Fox in a statement “Professor Malik Peiris is an infectious disease expert who has been on WHO missions and expert groups – as are many people eminent in their fields,” adding “That does not make him a WHO staff member, nor does he represent WHO.”

Read the rest of the report here.

Meanwhile, a local Beijing resident says the CCP is covering up new virus cases in a local neighborhood, according to the Epoch Times:

Two people who live in the Liuyi residential compound, located in the city’s Daxing district, were recently found to be infected with the CCP virus, according to a resident named Ms. Li, who is familiar with local virus outbreak information.

The entire compound, which is home to roughly 1,000 residents, was locked down after the new cases were discovered, on July 4; only one small gate remains open for grocery deliveries, she said.

However, the Beijing municipal health commission hasn’t reported any confirmed patients from the Liuyi compound in recent days.

Li shared with The Epoch Times a government list of local businesses and residential complexes that were mandated to conduct systematic disinfection and nucleic acid testing, including a total of 43 locations in Beijing.

However, under the Daxing district category on the list, the Liuyi residential compound was missing, which Li believes is because Beijing authorities purposely sought to conceal the new infections. –Epoch Times

Why would China go to such great lengths to cover up a naturally occurring outbreak of an ultra-virulent coronavirus that they insist wasn’t created in one of their labs?

end

CHINA/USA /PHASE  2 OF DEAL/UNLIKELY

 

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN/SYRIA/ISRAEL/USA

Nothing new here: Iran is always aiding Syria with their air defense trying to repel USA and Israeli attacks.  Israel is quite successful in knocking out weapon storage facilities in Syria and blowing up nuclear sites inside Iran.  Iran is totally broke and suffering hugely from the coronavirus.  It would be better for the country if they looked after their citizens instead of engaging in terrorist activities.

(zerohedge)

Iran To Help Syria With Air Defense To Repel US, Israeli Attacks

Submitted by South Front,

Iran will help to strengthen Syrian air defense capabilities as part of a wider military security agreement between the two countries, Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Baqeri said on July 8. The statement was made after the signing of a new military cooperation agreement in Damascus.

The agreement provides for the expansion of military and security cooperation and the continuation of coordination between the Armed Forces of the two countries. Major General Baqeri said that the signed deal “increases our will to work together in the face of US pressure.”

“If the American administrations had been able to subjugate Syria, Iran and the axis of resistance, they would not have hesitated for a moment,” he said.

The major general emphasized that Israel is a “powerful partner” of the US in the war against Syria, claiming that terrorist groups constituted part of the Israeli aggression.

In their turn, the United States and Israel insist that Iran and Hezbollah are responsible for the destabilization of Syria and prepare what they call ‘terrorist attacks’ against the US and Israel. In the framework of this approach, Israel, with direct and indirect help from the US, regularly conducts strikes on various supposedly ‘Iranian targets’ across Syria. Often these strikes concur with large-scale attacks of al-Qaeda-linked groups and ISIS on positions of the Syrian Army and its allies. One of the main points of Israeli concern is the growing military infrastructure of pro-Iranian forces near al-Bukamal, on the Syrian-Iraqi border. Therefore, the announced move by Iran to boost Syrian air defenses, including possible deployment of additional air defense systems, is a logical step for them to take to protect their own interests.

Clashes between the Syrian Army and Turkish-backed militants were ongoing in western Aleppo late on July 8 and early on July 9. According to pro-militant sources, the army destroyed at least one bulldozer and killed 2 members of the National Front for Liberation. Turkish proxies insist that their mortar strikes on army positions also led to casualties.

In southern Idlib, the Syrian Army shelled positions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham near Ruwaihah after the terrorist group sent additional reinforcements there under the cover of the ceasefire regime. On the morning of July 9th, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham units continued their deployment in the area. Since the signing of the March 5 ceasefire agreement between Turkey and Russia, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has been openly working to strengthen its positions in southern Idlib. Despite the successes in the conducting of joint Russian-Turkish patrols along the M4 highway, which even reached Jisr al-Shughur, the highway itself and the agreed security zone area along it in fact remain in the hands of Idlib militants.

Pro-ISIS sources claimed that the terrorist group’s cells have ambushed a unit of pro-government forces in the Homs-Deir Ezzor desert destroying at least one vehicle. These claims have yet to be confirmed. However, the situation in central Syria has recently deteriorated due to the increase in ISIS attacks and government forces are now conducting active security operations there.

end
IRAN/CHINA
Luongo discusses the new China Iran mega deal.  It is a deal between two sanctioned nations. I believe that nothing will come of this
(Luongo)

Trump Reaps The Whirlwind With China/Iran Mega Deal

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

For more than three years I’ve tried to explain that President Trump’s foreign policy was having the exact opposite effect of its intended purpose.

Trump, under the advice of people like John Bolton, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has pursued a maximum pressure campaign against Iran in the hopes of the regime either crumbling or suing for peace.

Trump was warned by both Chinese Premier Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin that Iran would ‘rather eat dirt’ than submit to him on nuclear weapons, support for Hezbollah, Iraq and President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

In effect, Trump and Pompeo have argued for Iran to give up its sovereignty to appease the fears of Netanyahu in Israel, and they have steadfastly told Bibi and The Donald to go pound sand.

Every six months or so, depending on the state of domestic affairs, tensions with Iran ratchet up another notch. Over the past couple of weeks a series of explosions at key Iranian military facilities occurred with fingerprints of Israel striking deep into Iran to cripple strategic targets.

Trump, distracted by the domestic insurrection against him, has left foreign policy strictly to Pompeo who is avidly pursuing a ‘have his cake and eat it too moment,’ trying to extend the weapons embargo against Iran at the United Nations while still claiming the unilateral right to leave the JCPOA without further consequences.

In a word, Russia, China and Europe are telling him, “No.”

And now we know why. China and Iran just inked a 25-year, game-changing strategic deal covering everything from oil sales, contract bids and massive upgrades to Iran’s anti-air capabilities as well as its domestic air force.

This deal was in the air over the weekend when Iranian Foriegn Minister Javad Zarif briefed Iranian lawmakers on the pending deal.

From Simon Watkins at Oilprice.com via Zerohedge who is arguing the deal was actually inked last year:

One of the secret elements of the deal signed last year is that China will invest US$280 billion in developing Iran’s oil, gas, and petrochemicals sectors. This amount will be front-loaded into the first five-year period of the new 25-year deal, and the understanding is that further amounts will be available in each subsequent five year period, provided that both parties agree. There will be another US$120 billion of investment, which again can be front-loaded into the first five-year period, for upgrading Iran’s transport and manufacturing infrastructure, and again subject to increase in each subsequent period should both parties agree. In exchange for this, to begin with, Chinese companies will be given the first option to bid on any new – or stalled or uncompleted – oil, gas, and petrochemicals projects in Iran. China will also be able to buy any and all oil, gas, and petchems products at a minimum guaranteed discount of 12 per cent to the six-month rolling mean average price of comparable benchmark products, plus another 6 to 8 per cent of that metric for risk-adjusted compensation. Additionally, China will be granted the right to delay payment for up to two years and, significantly, it will be able to pay in soft currencies that it has accrued from doing business in Africa and the Former Soviet Union states.

You can almost hear MBS’ sobs from here. Because there is no way the Saudis can compete with this. This is a strategic move by Iran to ensure that

  1. Iran has guaranteed oil exports despite U.S. sanctions
  2. The Iranian economy de-dollarizes faster
  3. Iran and Iraq, by extension, integrate into China’s One Belt, One Road project.
  4. Saudi Arabia’s position as the leader of the Arab oil-producing world is destroyed.
  5. Iran’s ability to withstand U.S. sanctions pressure rises dramatically

This also dovetails with China’s eschewing Saudi oil for Russian Urals gradeAt the same time China is working on putting a buyer’s group together to further marginalize Saudi oil pricing policy of setting tenders on a monthly basis.

Moreover, China wants its oil futures contract in Shanghai more dominant in the global market. That contract is a key piece to deepening Yuan liquidity.

Shifting the oil trade where it can trade in real time versus would be a boon to the market. Most of the Arab states set their tender prices at the beginning of the month and they don’t change.

Now let’s tie this into what’s happening in Hong Kong, where President Trump is threatening the Hong Kong Dollar’s peg to the U.S. dollar to try and cause China economic pain.

But China wants this to happen. It obviously doesn’t want Hong Kong to continue being the source of China’s international liquidity which is also retarding the internationalization of the yuan as a trade settlement currency.

I’ve been steadfast in my belief that China is ready to let Hong Kong go as a financial center. It is getting prepared to move its financial center to Shanghai, where its oil and gold futures contracts trade, the latter also convertible into gold.

The folly of all of this bluff and bluster is that Trump never wanted a war with Iran as the dramatic events from last year made clear. He simply wanted to force everyone to the bargaining table and renegotiate the JCPOA on Israel’s terms.

But the means and manner in which he went about this was both deeply insulting and demeaning.

Proud people like Iranians don’t respond to those kinds of cheap, gangster-like tactics and Trump has found out the hard way that treating international politics like negotiating a real estate deal doesn’t work.

There’s always someone else willing to come in and find their comparative advantage. So, this deal with China was always on the table, lurking in the background.

Israel pushed Trump to ditch the JCPOA to escalate the situation to their advantage. It gives Netanyahu every justification to send his air force around bombing targets in not just Syria, but now Iraq and Iran, increasing the likelihood of bringing Russia and China deeper into the region to defend its ally.

Every argument made to me over the past four years on this point has downplayed the idea that Russia and China would not come to Iran’s aid.

And yet it has steadily occurred.

All Trump did was help China get better terms on this deal with Iran than it would have gotten had he not gone full bull in an open-air marketplace.

Now that this deal has leaked out into the world we can see why Mike Pompeo is so desperately trying to re-impose the weapons embargo against Iran per the snap-back provisions of the JCPOA.

Because part of this deal is for China and Russia to sell Iran massive upgrades to both their anti-air defenses, namely Russian S-400’s, and to its air force.

Again from Watkins at Oilprice:

OilPrice.com understands from the Iranian sources that the bombers to be deployed will be China-modified versions of the long-range Russian Tupolev Tu-22M3s, with a manufacturing specification range of 6,800 kilometres (2,410 km with a  typical weapons load), and the fighters will be the all-weather supersonic medium-range fighter bomber/strike Sukhoi Su-34, plus the newer single-seat stealth attack Sukhoi-57. It is apposite to note that in August 2016, Russia used the Hamedan airbase to launch attacks on targets in Syria using both Tupolev-22M3 long-range bombers and Sukhoi-34 strike fighters. At the same time, Chinese and Russian military vessels will be able to use newly-created dual-use facilities at Iran’s key ports at Chabahar, Bandar-e-Bushehr, and Bandar Abbas, constructed by Chinese companies.

Moreover, Iran’s military will further integrate Russian Electronic Warfare (EW) protocols into its structures. Remember Russia treats EW as a vital and integral part of its military capabilities. It isn’t an add-on or adjunct to core military operations.

EW is integrated into Russian military operations down to the squad level.

The bottom line is that this deal cements the Russian/Chinese/Iranian axis as an unbreakable thing. For nearly four years Trump’s team has pushed him to try and break this alliance up, but did so with tactics which only pushed them closer together.

All stick and no carrot after decades of the same treatment while showing no capability of abiding by any deal struck was never a recipe for driving a wedge between these people.

So, we’re left with the following situation which, actually, is quite dangerous. The U.S.’s position in Iraq is ultimately tenuous, like it is in Syria. Iran will now be flush with Chinese money to rebuild not only its oil and gas export business but better support its allies in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.

Those same men pushed Trump to the brink of war in the end are still in his ear. And they are pushing a scorched earth policy of economic privation effecting social and political unrest.

But all that does is create the opportunity for China to step out from behind the curtain and into the spotlight.

If he wants to stay in power he may have to appease them one last time, as his anti-China, anti-EU campaign strategy comes to a head in October when the arms embargo against Iran expires.

In article after article I patiently explained how and why Trump and the U.S. had no real leverage over Iran short of bombing the country back to the stone age. That would never happen on Trump’s watch because Iran’s leadership would never do anything so overt as to invite that response.

Even the attack on the U.S. bases in Iraq in January in response to Trump’s miscalculated assassination of General Qassem Soleimani was measured, precise and, officially, without U.S. casualties. If there was ever a moment for the Iranians to make a strategic mistake that invited Trump’s wrath, it was that.

And once his bluff was called there, that was the end of Energy Dominance and the entire strategy of isolating Iran.

At the same time those strikes demonstrated an ability to deliver blows far ahead of anything Trump had been briefed on by his advisers.

And the consequences would be catastrophic, especially for not only Saudi Arabia, which got a small taste of what could come their way, but also Israel.

Back then we were all worried about what would happen if Iran attacked oil tankers in the Persian Gulf sending oil to $200 per barrel. The financial derivative meltdown and subsequent supply chain disruptions would have been existential.

Today we’re living through what happens when the opposite occurs and oil plunges to $18 per barrel, thanks to Vladimir Putin finally telling both OPEC+ and the U.S., “No.”

The outcome is pretty much the same, a meltdown of Western markets financialized to the point of self-destruction which has now plunged both the U.S. and Europe into political chaos.

Into that vacuum China and Russia can now move openly into central Asia, and impose their will over the future of the region without having to fight anything more dangerous than skirmishes.

China secures its future energy needs and the supply lines for cross-continental trade. It establishes itself as the new power broker in the region alongside Russia who supplies the military prowess and a broke and battered U.S. can only fight rearguard actions while its allies there sink further into irrelevancy.

*  *  *

END
TURKEY//EGYPT/LIBYA
Now Egypt is holding naval drills close to Libya. It sure looks like a war is inevitable.  Turkey has become quite belligerent as it tries to muscle into the recent Israeli-Cyprus gas//oil discovery in the Mediterranean.  The discovery is so big that it enters Egyptian waters and Greek waters.  Turkey does not recognize Cyprus so it wants its discovery for themselves. Turkey is now an ally of the Libyan government who has given them rights to much of the Mediterranean for its help in their civil war…. and thus the potential war. (The American side:  Hafter along with Egypt and Russia)
and (the other side: Turkey, Iran, Syria).  Israel backs Cyprus/Egypt group
(AlMasdarNews)

War Footing: Egypt Answers Turkish Naval Drills With Own Large Exercise On Libyan Border

Via AlMasdarNews.com,

The Egyptian media announced that the Egyptian Army is preparing to implement a military large scale maneuver near the Libyan border called “Decisive 2020”, which is a response to Turkey’s announcement of a new naval exercise in the Mediterranean aimed as a ‘message’ to Egypt.

The Egyptian channel “Cairo and People” (Al-Qahira w Al-Nas) said in a post on Twitter, that the Egyptian armed forces, with their main branches, are carrying out the Decisive 2020 maneuver at the western border, and this means that the maneuvers are close to Libya.

 

Egyptian Army file image

The Egyptian military maneuvers come one day after the Turkish naval forces announced that they will hold huge naval exercises off the Libyan coast during the coming period.

Turkish media quoted the Turkish Navy as saying that the expected maneuvers would be called “Naftex”, and would take place off the Libyan coast in 3 different regions, and each would bear a special name, which is “Barbaros”, “Targot Rais” and “Chaka Bay”.

Turkish media revealed that these maneuvers will take place imminently, and that they are training in anticipation of war in the eastern Mediterranean, in addition to what has been described as the escalating tensions in Libya in the recent period.

The Jerusalem Post explains:

Turkey has increased its military intervention in Libya in recent months, sending ships off the coast, planes to bring weapons, mercenaries and armed drones to the country.This is ostensibly to support the government in Tripoli which is fighting a civil war against forces in eastern Libya.

But it is actually part of Turkey’s desire for a greater role in energy exploration in the Mediterranean and aimed at weakening Egyptian-backed opposition forces. In response Egypt’s president hinted during a tour of a massive military base on Saturday, that Egypt might intervene.

Egypt and Turkey currently back the two opposing parties in Libya, with the latter directly involved in ground operations inside the country.

END

6.Global Issues

SERBIA//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

Rioting in Belgrade as the citizens rebel against further lockdowns

(zerohedge)

Virus Unrest Turns Violent As Serbs Protest Being “Lied To For Political Ends”

Social unrest has rocked Belgrade and other cities in Serbia this week in response to President Aleksandar Vucic’s reintroduction of government-curfews over surging coronavirus cases.

Serbian police fired tear gas and were dressed head to toe in riot gear, as demonstrators, mostly young people, assaulted police on Tuesday and Wednesday. The New York Times said the unrest was some of the first in Europe since the pandemic began – also indicating the severity of the unrest was worst since the rule of Slobodan Milosevic in the 1990s. 

 

July 8 Belgrade riot chaos. h/t Reuters 

Young Serbs quickly took the streets on Tuesday after Vucic announced Belgrade would be placed under a new order restricting movement in the region for three days to mitigate the spread of the second coronavirus wave. Many were infuriated by the re-implementation of the lockdown after coming out of some of the strictest ones in Europe to allow the general election last week.

“We don’t mind staying home for another three days — that wasn’t the problem,” said Dragana Grncarski, 45, who has been protesting this week.

“However, they’re playing with our minds and with the truth,” Grncarski added. “When it suits them to do elections, there is no corona. They organized football matches and tennis matches, and because of that we have a situation where the hospitals are full.”

“Citizens have been constantly deceived and lied to for political ends,” said Tena Prelec, a political expert on Southeast Europe at the University of Oxford.

Jelena Vasiljevic, an expert on Balkan unrest at the University of Belgrade, said the expiration of the lockdowns for election purposes – then re-implementation of the lockdowns took the population “from one extreme to another.” 

Vasiljevic said the “excessive use of force” by the government to combat rioters hasn’t been seen since the days of “Milosevic in 1996 or 1997.” Milosevic led Serbia through the Balkan Wars and was later charged for war crimes.

Serbian Defense Minister Aleksandar Vulin was convinced the demonstration against the re-implementation of the lockdowns in Belgrade and other cities were “carefully planned” – and aimed at igniting a civil war. 

“We have terrible violence on the streets, we have an attempt at a coup, we have an attempt to seize power by force and an attempt to provoke a civil war in Serbia. It cannot be described and explained differently. There is no reason, there is no reason to set fire to the Assembly, to set fire to the City Hall in Novi Sad, to attack the police, to beat people on the streets, to endanger life and to endanger the property of Serbian citizens ,” said Vulin, a guest on the show Novo jutro on TV Pink, was asked to comment on the events in the previous two evenings.

Russian Times caught some of the unrest on video earlier this week. Young Serbs can be seen clashing with riot police in front of government buildings.

“There were indications of foreign involvement, and some criminal faces were there, too,” Vucic said on Wednesday afternoon. He added that virus cases will likely flare-up because of the mass unrest.

“I wonder who will be responsible for the fact that hundreds and thousands of people became infected yesterday and the day before yesterday,” he said

Vucic has also backtracked on the curfew after several days of unrest –  instead, the government is expected to impose restrictions on public spaces and possibly limit business hours. There’s also talk of fining people for not wearing masks.

When it comes to outside forces meddling in Serb domestic affairs, Russia came out on Thursday, denying it had any involvement. 

END
CORONAVIRUS//UPDATE/GLOBE/FRIDAY

World Suffers 3rd Straight Record Jump In New COVID-19 Cases As US Sees Disturbing Spike In Deaths: Live Updates

Summary:

  • UK cases creep higher, deaths flat
  • Kudlow says Trump will not tolerate US shutdown
  • Latest remdesivir news sends futures surging
  • World suffers 3rd straight record jump in COVID-19 cases
  • US sees deaths top 800 for third straight day
  • US reports 2nd straight record jump
  • Philippines reports daily record
  • Ariz Gov orders indoor dining at max 50% capacity
  • Tokyo reports another daily record
  • Hong Kong closes schools
  • Texas Gov warns outbreak going to get worse, pleads with people to wear masks

* * *

Update (1000ET): The UK just released its latest COVID-19 data.

UK public health officials reported 512 new deaths.

In other news, Larry Kudlow said during a cable news interview Friday morning that Trump would “never tolerate” a full economic shutdown.

He also insisted yet again that the US is in a recovery. But we suspect the strength of Kudlow’s jawbone alone likely won’t be enough to revive consumer confidence, or create tens of millions of jobs.

* * *

Update (0900ET): The latest Gilead press release touting a new drop in mortality tied to remdesivir, the drug it initially developed to treat ebola that is now being repurposed to fight COVID-19.

As one might expect, the news sent the market, and shares of Gilead, surging higher.

Time for a secondary offering?

* * *

The market’s torrid recovery rally has encountered some more resistance this week as a massive retail-driven market bubble in China and a resurgence of US deaths linked to COVID-19 (most of which are occurring in the Sun Belt) has stoked fears that we might have finally arrived at the top of another down-slope as the reality of massively inflated valuations accompanied by the inevitable return to lockdown, as the deaths that former FDA head Scott Gottlieb has warned about during his morning appearances on CNBC finally begin to emerge.

Investors appeared to focus on the number of deaths reported on Thursday, which eclipsed 800 for the third day in a row, pushing the 7-day average to levels that we haven’t seen since early June.

According to Reuters, the US reported 60,565 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, a record-breaking tally for the second day in a row. There was, as usual, some disagreement on the numbers, as AFP tweeted that the record sum reported yesterday was higher than 65,000, citing Johns Hopkins data.

Globally, we saw 227,038 new cases yesterday, the third consecutive record.

Those numbers were mostly driven by the “Big 4” states – Texas, Florida, California, Arizona – as Florida reported a record 120 deaths, as we reported yesterday, and California had 136 new deaths, just below the record sum it reported the day before, according to the tally. Texas reported a record number of new cases north of 10k.

But almost equally as depressing are the multiplying signs that the outbreak is spreading to other states in the Midwest and South which haven’t seen the level of spread as the most troubled Sun Belt states.

Even outside the nation’s three most populous states, cases are rising. Alabama, Montana and Wisconsin saw their biggest single-day increases yet on Thursday. Viral spread is climbing in 41 out of 50 states, according to a Reuters analysis of data collected over the past 2 weeks.

As Bloomberg reported, the Sun Belt states are seeing their highest levels of deaths yet (though most are nowhere near the mortality rates seen in New York earlier this year). Still, the virus is overrunning hospitals and exhausting supplies.

Yesterday, AZ Gov Doug Ducey announced measures including increasing testing capacity (testing across the country has continued to expand, though in many sun belt states, it hasn’t been nearly fast enough to prevent hours-long lines) and limiting dine-in capacity to 50%.

In Mississippi, where many lawmakers are resisting wearing masks, 26 of them tested positive, including the leaders of both legislative chambers.

“We’re not in a good situation. That may be a little too gentle. Probably what I really think is not fit to print,” said Jaline Gerardin, an expert in disease modeling and an assistant professor of preventive medicine in epidemiology at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine in Chicago. “I’m very worried.”

Ariz. has seen a 50% jump in the number of new cases reported daily over the last three weeks. Governor Ducey said Thursday: “We have had a brutal June.”

Meanwhile, more Republican governors are pleading with the public to take steps like wearing masks when in public. In Kentucky, which is now reporting at least 200 or so new cases a day, Gov Andy Beshear said he would order mask-wearing statewide beginning 5pmET.

Of course, the US isn’t the only country struggling with a disturbing resurgence. In Asia, Tokyo, Hong Kong, the Philippines (which reported another single day record of new cases earlier on Friday) and Indonesia are all struggling with new clusters (or outbreaks that never really went away).

Just look at those curves (source: BBG):

Meanwhile, as President Trump pushes the CDC to develop new guidelines that would support his hopes for reopening schools across the country in August, Hong Kong eported 42 new cases, 34 of them locally transmitted, and announced on Friday plans to close schools due to the recent outbreak, which has been traced back to an old folks home and restaurants.

Hong Kong has reported 1,365 cases with seven deaths since the pandemic began.

 end
Michael Every on yesterday and today’s events.
a very important read..
Michael Every…

Rabobank: “Suddenly, Lots Of Things Might Just Matter All At Once”

Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

Nothing matters. We (mostly) all know that. Events come and events go, but markets go up regardless. Yet suddenly, lots of things might just matter all at once. And markets actually went down!!

US presidential candidate Biden, who is way ahead in the polls, has outflanked President Trump in the populist stakes with a Build Back Better plan and a USD700bn “Buy American” pledge to create 5m new manufacturing jobs; that while Peter Navarro’s proposal for the same gathers dust on the White House desk. Biden also says he backs unionization and collective bargaining.

Unless Trump comes up with a sweeping new plan he will lose #MAGA ground to a man who spent his career building the neoliberal consensus Trump won by running against. I said Trump would win in 2016 because he said the economy stank: now the economy more than stinks –jobless claims were still around 1.3m yesterday– his message is that everything is Great Again. As such, polls and news show he seems to be shedding both billionaire and working-class supporters simultaneously, which is quite the trick.

Biden also decried that “throughout this crisis, Donald Trump has been almost singularly focused on the stock market, the Dow, the NASDAQ – not you, not your families.” How very dare you, Sir! More audaciously, Biden proposed to raise the corporate tax rate and that for the wealthiest Americans. How very, very dare you, Sir! Forget about toppling George Washington: this is a genuine revolution for markets to contemplate. No more tax cuts to pump into the stock market? Who would that leave to drive markets higher? How else can an economy work? Of course, to underline again, this is a man who spent his career building the neoliberal consensus. One wonders how Biden envisions the Fed operating under his administration: will he allow them to continue to be almost singularly focused on the Dow and NASDAQ, or will he want their support on the fiscal front for actual investment? It’s unclear.

Back to things that suddenly matter. The White House imposed sanctions on four Chinese individuals over human rights abuses of Uighurs, including the head of Xinjiang province, who is a member of the 25-person national Politburo. This is more of a shot across the bows for now given primarily the sanction means they and their families cannot enter the US. However, it shows that sanctions can happen.

Indeed, on that front —and of huge potential significance— Reuters reports that Chinese banks in Hong Kong are “preparing to lose USD access” if the US imposes its toughest sanctions on them and cuts off USD access. What was being blithely dismissed as a nuclear option nobody would ever use is now seeing the same people rush to construct bomb shelters. Several large foreign banks are also so deeply enmeshed in the special autonomous region that they are sweating. FT also reports foreign banks are scouring their client lists to see if they will be impacted should such measures hit. Indeed, all banks are torn between US sanctions law, which demand global compliance, and the new Hong Kong national security law, which demands the same – yet in the opposite directions.

Certainly, the atmosphere is one of schism. Australia just offered asylum to 10,000 Hong Kongers in the country and followed Canada to rip up its extradition treaty, the Aussie PM even saying he would facilitate firms wishing to relocate operations and their staff Down Under. At the same time, Italy has followed France to walk away from Huawei for 5G – leaving just mercantilist Germany, sweating profusely. Even Bloomberg says “A New World Order for the Coronavirus Ear is Emerging”, talking about Potsdam and Yalta and the geopolitical map of the world being redrawn.

Linking these threads is key news, still as far abstract to most people as US sanctions were a year ago, that Iran has signed a 25-year co-operation deal with China encompassing trade, infrastructure, energy, and defence coordination. It means China will be buying huge volumes of Iranian oil – in which currency given Iran can’t use USD? And, if the UN arms embargo collapses, China will be selling Iran huge volumes of weapons – in which currency? (Russia will too of course.) The suggestion last year was even that Chinese troops could be stationed in Iran.

Is the US going to watch its encirclement of Iran (and Russia,…and China) collapse? Or is it going to push back? I don’t have that answer, and Trump or Biden probably don’t either: but it’s going to really matter for markets, as it will risk dragging everyone in. And it’s a decision that’s going to have to be made fairly soon.

Meanwhile, there are also more mundane stories that matter too, and yet which are also linked to this big picture. China may be waiting for the US to light the touch paper on Hong Kong, and the US might be waiting for China to light the touch paper over Iran, but China appears to want to stop the equity fireworks display already. Monday saw stocks soar nearly 6% as the authorities gave their blessing to the latest bubble iteration. Five days and USD1 trillion in capitalisation and “I can’t lose” investor headlines later, Chinese media are telling people to calm down and state pension funds are taking profits. So is that it? Is the bubble over even before the grannies jumped in to help the millennial day-traders? Or is this a pause to refresh? Let’s ask perennial China-bull Shuli Ren of Bloomberg, who argues ”Whereas the 2015 rally was engineered by the central bank which started its rate cut cycle the previous November, this round of trading frenzy is a play on Beijing’s ambitious $1.4 trillion tech infrastructure build-out.

Basically she argues this time round it is not PBOC easing driving the market, but fiscal easing….into another Chinese mega-project that means an inevitable clash with the US….and where the fiscal spending is backed by the PBOC anyway. In other words, it’s not a rate-cut artificial bull market; it’s not a QE artificial bull-market; it’s an MMT artificial bull-market, predicated on the latest Beijing “build it and they will come” mantra. Joe Biden might approve if it were his plan; it’s odd Trump doesn’t seem to.

So nothing matters again – phew!(?) MMT to the rescue? Hardly.

Don’t forget the geopolitical see-saw of intersecting US vs. Chinese MMT ambitions – and all those caught in the middle.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1297 UP .0009 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.81 DOWN 0.430 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2617   UP   0.0012  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3591 UP .0011 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 9 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 67.27 POINTS OR 1.95% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 482.75 POINTS OR 1.94%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,64%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 482.75 POINTS OR 1.84%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 67.27 POINTS OR 1.05%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 64% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 238.48  POINTS OR 1.06%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1872.00

silver:$18.72-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.59% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.27 DOWN 5  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.66 DOWN 4 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.42% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -+02%  DOWN 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.41%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,22 UP 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 81 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.47% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.69% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1318  UP     .0030 or 30 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.77 DOWN .460 OR YEN UP 46  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2653 UP .0048 POUND UP 48  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 11 basis points to 1.3593

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 7.0018    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  7.0056  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.8663 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at + 0.02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.62 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.31 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.49 DOWN 20  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 45.79  0.76%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 144.25 POINTS OR 1.15%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 49.47 POINTS 1.01%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 84,20 POINTS or 1.16%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 261.65 POINTS OR 1.34%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 40.14 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 43.20 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    70.88  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.03 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 3 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.47 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  40.49//

 

 

BRENT :  43.14

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.64..plus 4 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.33..plus one basis point..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1300 ( UP 13   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.94 DOWN .295 (YEN UP 30 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.65 DOWN 5 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2627 UP 22  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.8666

 

 

the Russian rouble 70.85   DOWN 0.01 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3596 DOWN 15 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.47%

 

The Dow closed UP 368.80 POINTS OR 1.43%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 69.70 POINTS OR 0.66%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  27.48 CLOSED DOWN 1.78

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.266%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Big-Tech Bid, Small-Caps Skid As Gold Hits 9 Year Highs

On the week, Nasdaq has soared higher once again, notably divergent from the rest of the markets with Small Caps actually down on the week…

Which has sent the ratio of Megacap-Tech to Small Caps back near a record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq is up 8 of the last 9 days and 17 of the last 20 days – this is easy!!!

Interestingly, today saw the week’s performances flip with Small Caps surging as Nasdaq slipped. Markets were sold at the cash open then immediately ramped higher…

Spot the odd market out (Chinese stock speculation re-erupted this week)…

Source: Bloomberg

Median US stocks continue to diverge significantly from the handful of megatech stocks driving the Nasdaq ever higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably Defensives and Cyclicals have rallied tick for tick higher since the European close yesterday – very unusual moving together…

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s TSLA – up from $1000 to $1500 in 7 days…

And who’s buying?

TSLA’s now as big as JPMorgan… and TSLA is now bigger than Ford + GM + BMW + Daimler + Volkswagen combined

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields touched a two month lows today…

Source: Bloomberg

Then ripped back higher with 5Y and 2Y unch on the week, the long-end still notably lower (and the curve flatter)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar ended lower on the week, chopping around in a tight range…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were all higher on the week, led by Ripple…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper was the week’s high-flier as China erupted in speculative excess. Oil was down…

Source: Bloomberg

Big intraweek drop in WTI was bid back above $40…

Silver held above $19…

And gold clung to $1800…

Spot Gold reached back to its highest since 2011…

Finally, you have to laugh right…

Bonds ain’t buying it…

Source: Bloomberg

Because fun-durr-mentals…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

One should expect treasury yields to tumble as we witness deflation gripping the uSA: prices deflate for 3rd straight month

(zerohedge)

Treasury Yields Tumble As Producer Prices Deflate For 3rd Straight Month

For the third straight month, US Producer Prices deflated on a year-over-year basis in June.

Against expectations of a 0.2% decline, PPI Final Demand fell 0.8% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

The headline PPI print fell 0.2% MoM against expectations of a v-shaped bounce back +0.4% MoM.

Food prices fell 5.2% in June as Energy rose 7.7%.

Core PPI also fell (down 0.1% YoY)

Which helps support the ongoing plunge in Treasury yields…

And completely decouple from stocks…

Trade accordingly.

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

 

BIDEN’S PLATFORM:

Update (1545ET): Biden can’t get through a speech without making at least one major error. Today, it was the amount of money he was responsible for “administering” under TARP.

Meanwhile, as Biden promises to spend $700 billion on a “sweeping” economic plan that he claims. Investments in domestic technology would yield more than 5 million jobs, Biden said.

But as WaPo pointed out, Biden’s message is essentially copying Trump’s rhetoric.

Joe Biden unveiled a proposal Thursday to spend $700 billion on American products and research, challenging President Trump’s “America First” agenda with a competing brand of economic nationalism and setting the stage for an election-year showdown over the country’s financial future.

By aping it, did Biden just tacitly acknowledge that Trump’s ‘American First’ policies and vows to defend and support American workers are central to his appeal? But we thought all Trump supporters were motivated by racist hatred?

* * *

Update (1520ET): The headlines are rolling in. For starters, Biden says he plans to raise “hundreds of billions of dollars” by raising the corporate tax rate.

  • BIDEN ACCUSES TRUMP OF WALKING AWAY FROM THE PANDEMIC CRISIS
  • BIDEN: WALL STREET BANKERS AND CEOS DIDN’T BUILD AMERICA
  • BIDEN: TRUMP IS FOCUSED ON STOCK MARKET, NOT WORKING PEOPLE
  • BIDEN: ENDING THE ERA OF ‘SHAREHOLDER CAPITALISM’ IS OVERDUE
  • BIDEN SAYS TRUMP IS DETERMINED TO DRIVE AMERICANS APART
  • BIDEN SAYS TRUMP `CODDLES UP’ TO PUTIN, OTHERS

We hope all Biden’s talk about our American values of “hard work” and fairness resonate with the far-left. Meanwhile, Biden’s speech appears to be weighing on stocks in the last hour of trade (though it could be technical action).

Aping Trump’s rhetoric on trade and American jobs, Biden claims he wants to bring “5 million jobs” back to America, and push through a massive infrastructure bill, which he says he will announce “next week”.

* * *

As we explained last night, Joe Biden’s new presidential campaign platform, which his team handled in cooperation with Bernie’s people in an effort to produce a “Biden-Sanders” platform, embraces the central provisions of the ‘Green New Deal’ and other far-left policy positions, while also talking the talk about protecting American workers to try to win more support among midwestern swing voters.

Biden is following that up with a speech, his first in some time.

end

Manhattan rental market implodes as median rent plunges..vacancies hit record highs

(zerohedge)

Manhattan Rental Market Implodes: Median Rent Plunges Most Ever As Vacancies Hit Record High

It’s nost just Manhattan’s housing market that is getting crushed in recent weeks: the city’s rental market is also starting to show the damage from a pandemic-fueled exodus. According to Douglas Elliman Real Estate and appraiser Miller Samuel, the borough’s apartment-vacancy rate in June rose to the highest on record. Available listings surged 85% from a year earlier to 10,789,  an all-time high for a single month.

Predictably, all that excess inventory has put a dent in pricing with the median rent tumbling 6.6% to $3,242, the first decline in 18 months and the biggest in data going back to October 2011, according to Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel.

“It does give context to the scale of the movement out of Manhattan during the crisis,” Miller said in an interview with Bloomberg, which notes that “many New Yorkers have lost their taste for dense city living while the coronavirus raged, shuttering office buildings and giving people few reasons to stick around.”

The delayed response is because apartments vacated during the three-month lockdown were heaped onto the market at the end of June, when the state lifted the ban on in-person real estate showings.

New lease signings jumped 45% last month from May, with 3,171 apartments finding takers, Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman said. To get those tenants, landlords had to offer average rent discounts of 2%, more than double what they were giving last year. They also piled on sweeteners, such as free months and payment of broker fees, in 45% of deals.

Even with all that, the vacancy rate still climbed to 3.67%, a record in data going back to August 2006. The rate had never before topped 3%, according to Miller.

“We’re in for a summer season that is going to be all about supply,” he said.

end
The Fed balance sheet is declining but it is in the swaps category. This is important because it reveals that the demand for dollars throughout the globe is waning
(zerohedge)

Fed’s Balance Sheet Posts Biggest Weekly Drop In Over 11 Years

After three months of unprecedented gains, which saw an increase of $3 trillion to $7.2 trillion, the Fed’s balance sheet has posted its fourth consecutive weekly decline since the start of the corona crisis according to the latest H.4.1 statement.

The drop in the week ended July 8 amounted to $88.3 billion, surpassing the steep drop recorded three week earlier, and was the biggest weekly drop since May 2009.

However, as has been the case in the past three weeks, the drop in the balance sheet was not due to a reversal or even slowdown in QE which continues almost every single day, with the Fed adding another $18.2 billion in Treasurys even as the settlement calendar and prepays meant the amount of MBS was unchanged at $1.911 trillion (don’t worry, the Fed is also buying about $4.5BN in MBS every day), but once again due to a decline in liquidity swaps, which shrank by $46.3 billion to $179.1 billion, after a $49.5 billion drop in the week prior and $77.5 billion the week before that.

The amount of outstanding repo agreements also declined for a second consecutive week by a substantial $61 billion, after a $9 billion decline in the week prior, as financial conditions are clearly starting to tighten.

As shown in the chart below, the total amount outstanding in the swap lines, designed to ease a surge in demand for U.S. currency in the participating banks’ jurisdictions during the early weeks of the crisis, was the lowest since early April.

Coupled with other indications of shrinking demand for the Fed’s bevy of emergency liquidity facilities, the reduction in currency swap line usage is for many analysts a sign that global financial markets are returning to near-normal after being upended by the coronavirus outbreak in February and March. “We expect a more rapid decline over the coming months as the majority of the swaps will roll off,” Citigroup economists wrote in a recent note.

The flipside is that it also means that the system is once again seeing a shrinkage in the circulation of the world’s reserve currency, an explicit tightening in financial conditions, and the adverse global impact of any macroshock will be substantially greater when one hits in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, with the S&P500 closely tracking the Fed’s balance sheet in the past three months, which has served as the only factor behind the rebound in the market and the modest boost to the economy by monetizing the $3 trillion in new debt issued recently, the latest weekly drop coincides with the period of heightened volatility in the past four weeks.

The shrinkage comes at a time when the Fed’s monthly liquidity injection has been tapered to approximately $120 billion, which suggests that while the balance sheet is likely to resume growing in the next week, it will be at a more gradual pace.

It also means that for the stock market to move substantially from this point on – since the market is now fully disconnected from fundamentals and is simply a derivative of endogenous liquidity and fund flow – Powell will need to find another justification to expand the Fed’s QE aggressively, as discussed in “JPMorgan Spots A Big Problem For Stocks.” Something like – for example – a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic…

Finally, those keeping track of how much corporate bonds the Fed has bought, the latest total for the Fed’s Corporate Credit Facilities LLC which includes purchases of both ETFs and corporate bonds, the Fed disclosed that as of July 8, there was $10.4 billion in book value of holdings (the Fed does not break out how many actual bonds it has bought vs ETFs), an increase of $754 million from the $9.7 billion a week prior. Which means that the Fed is now buying around $150MM in corporate bonds and/or ETFs every single day, a sharp drop from the roughly $300MM/week it was buying just one month ago.

end

(Shhh! Don’t Tell Wall Street that the Fed is Tightening.) Repo Loans Hit Zero; Fed Balance Sheet Shrinks by $248 Billion in a Month

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: July 10, 2020 ~

Federal Reserve Building, Washington, D.C. with Dead BullBeginning on September 17 of last year, months before the first COVID-19 case had been discovered anywhere in the world, the Federal Reserve – for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008 – jumped into the repo loan market, where financial firms borrow from each other overnight, and began making tens of billions of dollars in loans a week to the trading houses of Wall Street. The Fed calls these 24 trading houses its “primary dealers.”

For the vast majority of the Fed’s 107-year existence, it was limited to making loans to only commercial banks, which would assist the general U.S. economy by passing on those loans to businesses and consumers. Since the financial crisis of 2008, the Fed has become a money spigot to the Wall Street casino, based solely on its own interpretation of what it’s allowed to do.

The Fed’s emergency action on September 17 resulted from the fact that repo loans on that date had bizarrely spiked from 2 percent to 10 percent, strongly suggesting that one or more trading houses were in trouble and other financial firms were backing away from giving them loans.

The Fed releases weekly data each Thursday at 4:30 p.m. on its balance sheet holdings. It’s known as its H.4.1 report and shows balance sheet levels for Wednesday of that week. Yesterday, the Fed’s H.4.1 bizarrely showed a balance of zero for repo loans outstanding on Wednesday, July 9. To give you an idea of just how bizarre that zero figure is, here’s a rundown of how the Fed’s weekly repo loans grew from their inception on September 17.

In a one-month period, from September 18 to October 16 – the Wednesday level of repo loans grew from $75 billion to $197.7 billion outstanding. The Wednesday balance of outstanding repo loans hovered in the $200 billion range weekly through March 11 of this year. Then they skyrocketed.

From March 11 to March 18, the Fed’s repo loans increased from $242 billion to $442 billion outstanding. What could possibly explain such a massive surge in the demand for money from the Fed by the trading houses on Wall Street in one week’s time? There was a massive selloff in stocks triggered by spreading fears of the COVID-19 pandemic. The share prices of the biggest banks on Wall Street tanked, raising more alarm bells.

On Wednesday, March 11, 2020, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. On Friday, March 13, 2020, the U.S. declared a National Emergency related to the pandemic.

On March 12, 2020 the Associated Press reported that the death toll in the U.S. from COVID-19 “climbed to 39, with over 1,300 infections.” It’s just four months later and CNN Health shows this morning that there are 3.1 million cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. and 133,291 deaths.

And the situation is getting worse, not better. This headline is running this morning at Bloomberg Law: “Patients Swamp Sun Belt Hospitals With Covid-19 on a Rampage.” The report notes that “The coronavirus pandemic’s merciless march through the Sun Belt is killing record numbers of Americans there, overrunning hospitals and exhausting supplies…New U.S. virus cases topped 60,000 in a day for the first time Thursday, with the national total above 3.1 million. And in states where the disease rages, a nightmarish paralysis hit institutions filling with the sick and dying. Quinn Snyder, an emergency physician in Mesa, near Phoenix, said patients were flooding in from other parts of Arizona and as far as New Mexico as smaller hospitals near the saturation point.”

In the midst of such an escalating crisis, why would the Fed be retrenching rather than adding liquidity?

On March 14, using the Fed’s own daily data, Wall Street On Parade reported that the cumulative total of the Fed’s repo loans had topped $9 trillion. From Monday through Thursday of this week, the Fed has not made one repo loan of any size.

It’s not just the repo loans that have shrunk. The Fed’s balance sheet is also shrinking – which is effectively a tightening. The Fed’s balance sheet stood at $7.2 trillion on June 10. As of Wednesday of this week, the Fed’s balance sheet logged in at $6.969 trillion, a decline of $248 billion in a month’s time.

There are a host of reasons that the Fed could be taking this action but none of them are going to be good for the biggest Wall Street banks, which are surviving on the illusion that the Fed will provide an unlimited money spigot.

The Fed could be getting pushback from some of its Governors that it’s creating a dangerous stock bubble. It’s certainly been hearing that from the street, as we reported on June 18. The Fed could also be hearing from regional Fed presidents that the trillions it has pumped in super cheap loans to the trading houses, is not filtering down to save jobs or small businesses? (Why would anyone ever think it would? The only loans that trading houses make are margin loans to speculate in stocks or other securities.) The Fed could also be getting expert advice that the pain that it would inflict on markets attempting to eventually unwind a $7 trillion balance sheet will be a cure that is worse than the current disease.

We could go on and on with speculations but the reality on the ground is that, for some unknown reason, the Fed has applied the brakes. At least for now.

END

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/GOLDMAN SACHS

This is troubling to me…I thought that by now, the virus should be mutating to a less virulent stage. It seems that this is not so.

a must read..

(Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Spots An Ominous Turning Point In The US Coronavirus Pandemic

Earlier this week we asked if “everyone was wrong” about the ongoing impact of the coronavirus pandemic, when we pointed out that despite the surge in new covid-19 cases, which according to Bank of America was largely a function of far more widespread testing, deaths were declining.

Specifically, we referred to a recent note by Nordea’s strategist Andreas Steno Larsen, who was looking at the growing divergence between the number of new covid cases in the US and shrinking number of fatalities, and observed that “we are entering “crunch time” on fatalities since they should start to rise in early July given the lead/lag structure versus new cases.

As Larsen further predicted, “if fatalities don’t spike early in July, then people will conclude that it’s probably spreading amongst a part of the population that is not as sensitive, or that it is a resulted of increased testing or that the virus has become less deadly as we move into the summer months. Governors in Texas, California and Florida seem to have concluded that the below correlation holds, but the jury is still out.”

His conclusion was that “the next 6-10 days will be crucial.”

With that in mind, we followed up on Larsen’s prediction  one week later, and we found that there still no spike in fatalities at either the federal level or state level.

Which prompted us to ask whether “most experts were wrong that the surge in cases would also lead to a spike in deaths?” We also showed recent data compiled by Deutsche Bank, which could explain the lack of a rise in the mortality rate. As DB’s Jim Reid showed, unlike the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, there has been a major difference with the current covid crisis, namely in the age distribution of fatalities:

As DB further pointed out, for Covid-19, the elderly have been overwhelmingly the worst hit. For the Spanish flu of 1918, the young working-age population were severely affected too. In fact, the death rate from pneumonia and influenza that year among 25-34 year olds in the United States was more than 50% higher than that for 65-74 year olds, “a remarkable difference to Covid-19.”

So was it the case that the latest wave of covid was simply far less dangerous than the Spanish Flu, or were we merely counting the chickens early? After all, as Larsen said 10 days ago, the crunch time could take as much as 10 days to emerge.

Fast forwarding to today, in a troubling observation that suggests we may have indeed been premature with our optimistic assessment, Goldman’s writes that on Thursday confirmed cases in the US increased by 63K, the largest daily increase observed in the country so far. More concerning, however, is that while new fatalities have not begun to climb substantially at the country-level, some states with high rates of case growth have started to see an acceleration in deaths, which as shown below, is Goldman’s Chart of the Day.

Still, as even Goldman concedes, the increase in new fatalities has not been as rapid as that of new cases, and just like BofA, Goldman adds that “This likely reflects, at least partially, greater testing, which has captured more low-risk cases and, perhaps, more high-risk cases at earlier stages of infection, resulting in a longer lag between confirmed cases and deaths.”

In a separate ominous observation, Goldman also notes that hospitalizations are rising nationally as well, and COVID-19 patients now occupy 7.4% of hospital beds nationwide, up 2% compared to two weeks ago. As the bank further details, “patients receiving treatment for COVID-19 in Arizona hospitals now occupy nearly a quarter of total capacity. In Texas, and Florida, COVID-19 patient occupancy is still doubling about every two weeks. In each of these three states new case growth is still high and accelerating. In Georgia, Maryland, Nevada, South Carolina, and Alabama, COVID-19 patients occupy at least 10% of total hospital capacity while available capacity is already quite low. Prevalence of symptoms and cases are still increasing in each of these states.”

Still, putting the rise in hospitalizations in context, even Arizona – the most severely impacted state – still has another 20% to go before it catches up to where NY and NJ were at their peak.

Bottom line: it is still too early to rule out that the ongoing increase in cases across the US won’t necessarily translate into higher deaths.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

This should be interesting:  Sullivan defies appeal court and asks for the entire en banc review to drop the case.

This rarely happens.  The en banc will not happen.

(zerohedge)

Flynn Judge Defies Appeals Court, Asks For Full Review Of Order To Drop Case

The judge in Michael Flynn’s criminal case is refusing to accept the results of a federal appeals court three-judge decision ordering him to dismiss the case against the former national security adviser.

Judge Emmet Sullivan has instead asked the appeals court for an ‘en banc’ review of the decision – meaning the entire panel of all active judges on the court would re-hear the case.

Interestingly, if the appeals court grants the en banc request, reversing the previous ruling would mean undermining a decision by Obama appointee, Chief Judge Srinivasan – whose ruling in United States v. Fokker Services B.V. effectively removed Sullivan’s authority to deny the DOJ’s request to dismiss Flynn’s case.

Some  commentators have read Fokker as effectively wiping out Sullivan’s authority to deny the government’s request in Flynn’s case, given that opinion’s sweeping assertion that “decisions to dismiss pending criminal charges … lie squarely within the ken of prosecutorial discretion,” leaving no “substantial role for courts.” But it would be a mistake to overread this passage. Fokker concerned a trial court’s authority under the Speedy Trial Act to interfere with a proposed deferred prosecution agreement, essentially a form of pretrial probation in which a case is put on hold for a year or more while the prosecutor monitors the defendant’s behavior. No Rule 48 motion was filed in that case, which means the court of appeals had no occasion to revisit or alter its governing opinion in Ammidown. –Lawfare Blog

As CNBC notes, however, en banc reviews are rarely granted – but Flynn’s case is anything but common.

end

De Blasio Says BLM Protests Can Continue While Canceling All Other Large Events 

New York City’s Mayor Bill de Blasio made some stunning remarks on CNN, declaring protests in the streets were perfectly acceptable while canceling other large events through September.

De Blasio joined CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Thursday evening, discussing the evolving pandemic and policy response by City Hall to mitigate the spread in the city. He said social justice warriors were too important after months of protests have yet produced an outbreak in cases.

“This is a historic moment of change. We have to respect that but also say to people the kinds of gatherings we’re used to, the parades, the fairs — we just can’t have that while we’re focusing on health right now,” de Blasio told Blitzer.

Blitzer then asks: What about protests?

De Blasio responds: “This is a historic moment. We have to respect that.”

The Daily Caller tweeted CNN’s video – here’s how Twitter responded to de Blasio telling Blitzer that the city will ban all large gatherings except for Black Lives Matter protests:

 

Tweet responses to Daily Caller tweeting de Blasio & Blitzer’s discussion  

So it’s okay to have mass-gatherings, then paint a “Black Lives Matter” mural in front of Trump Tower in New York City – but indoor dining at restaurants has been delayed?

So far, virus cases and deaths have not surged since weeks of demonstrations.

It’s only a matter of time before residents become angry that restrictions are being politicized.

END
Good for Trump!! He is threatening the tax exempt status of leftist biased colleges.  That will stop them
(zerohedge)

“Our Children Should Be Educated, Not Indoctrinated” – Trump Threatens Tax-Exempt Status Of Leftist-Biased Colleges

In a series of tweets this morning, President Trump escalated his attacks on US universities by threatening the tax-exempt status of colleges that are too focused on “Radical Left Indoctrination”…

We look forward to the avalanche of “this is hate” tweet-ban demands, and the stampeded of college deans who will decry Trump’s clear “white supremacist” perspective (when they themselves are kowtowing to a ‘black supremacy’ demanding mob).

Trump is right in the increasing level of liberal bias and indoctrination in American Colleges.

As Walter Williams wrote earlier in the year, a recent Pew Research Center survey finds that only half of American adults think colleges and universities are having a positive effect on our nation. The leftward political bias, held by faculty members affiliated with the Democratic Party, at most institutions of higher education explains a lot of that disappointment. Professors Mitchell Langbert and Sean Stevens document this bias in “Partisan Registration and Contributions of Faculty in Flagship Colleges.”

Langbert and Stevens conducted a new study of the political affiliation of 12,372 professors in the two leading private and two leading public colleges in 31 states.

  • For party registration, they found a Democratic to Republican (D:R) ratio of 8.5:1, which varied by rank of institution and region.
  • For donations to political candidates (using the Federal Election Commission database), they found a D:R ratio of 95:1, with only 22 Republican donors, compared with 2,081 Democratic donors.

Several consistent findings have emerged from Langbert and Stevens’ study. The ratio of faculty who identify as or are registered as Democratic versus Republican almost always favors the Democratic Party. Democratic professors outnumber their Republican counterparts most in the humanities and social sciences, compared with the natural sciences and engineering.

The ratio is 42:1 in anthropology, 27:1 in sociology and 27:1 in English. In the social sciences, Democratic registered faculty outnumber their Republican counterparts the least in economics 3:1. The partisan political slant is most extreme at the most highly rated institutions.

The leftist bias at our colleges and universities has many harmful effects. Let’s look at a few.

  • At University of California, Davis, last month, a mathematics professor faced considerable backlash over her opposition to the requirement for faculty “diversity statements.”
  • University of California, San Diego, requires job applicants to admit to the “barriers” preventing women and minorities from full participation in campus life.
  • At American University, a history professor recently wrote a book in which he advocates repealing the Second Amendment.
  • A Rutgers University professor said, “Watching the Iowa Caucus is a sickening display of the over-representation of whiteness.”
  • University of California, Berkeley, professor and former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich chimed in to say: “Think about this: Iowa is 90.7% white. Iowa is now the only state with a lifetime voting ban for people with a felony conviction. Black people make up 4% of Iowa’s population but 26% of the prison population. How is this representative of our electorate?”
  • A Williams College professor said he would advocate for social justice to be included in math textbooks.
  • Students at Wayne State University no longer have to take a single math course to graduate; however, they may soon be required to take a diversity course.

Then there’s a question about loyalty to our nation.

Charles Lieber, former chairman of the Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Harvard, was arrested earlier this year on accusations that he made a materially false, fictitious and fraudulent statement about work he did for a program run by the Chinese government that seeks to lure American talent to China.

He was paid $50,000 a month and up to $158,000 in living expenses for his work, which involved cultivating young teachers and students, according to court documents. According to the Department of Justice, Lieber helped China “cultivate high-level scientific talent in furtherance of China’s scientific development, economic prosperity and national security.”

It’s not just Harvard professors.

  • Newly found court records reveal that Emory University neuroscientist Li Xiao-Jiang was fired in late 2019 after being charged with lying about his own ties to China. Li was part of the same Chinese program as Lieber.
  • A jury found a University of California, Los Angeles, professor guilty of exporting stolen U.S. military technology to China. Newsweek reported that he was convicted June 26 on 18 federal charges.
  • Meanwhile, NBC reported that federal prosecutors say that University of Texas professor Bo Mao attempted to steal U.S. technology by using his position as a professor to obtain access to protected circuitry and then handing it over to the Chinese telecommunications giant, Huawei.

The true tragedy is that so many Americans are blind to the fact that today’s colleges and universities pose a threat on several fronts to the well-being of our nation.

end

Ghislaine Maxwell Hires Elite Legal Team To Face US Prosecutors

Accused sex-trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell has hired a fleet of powerhouse attorneys to defend her against federal charges that she procured underage girls as young as 14 for sexual encounters with deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

According to Bloomberg Law, “Maxwell will confront federal prosecutors with years of experience in New York courts and deep knowledge of the child sex-trafficking allegations surrounding her and her former lover Jeffrey Epstein.”

For her own legal team, Maxwell has assembled the mirror image — attorneys with years of experience practicing in New York courts and also with deep knowledge of the allegations against her and Epstein.

Maxwell’s hired two pairs of law partners, one from New York, the other from Denver. The New Yorkers — Christopher Everdell and Mark Cohen — were once federal prosecutors while the Denver duo — Laura Menninger and Jeffrey Pagliuca — has defended Maxwell in civil lawsuits by Epstein’s victims.

Everdell spent more than a decade working for the government, focusing on complex frauds, cybercrime, terrorism and international narcotics cases. In 2014, the Federal Drug Agent Foundation cited Everdell and his team for their work in the investigation and apprehension of Mexican drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman.

Cohen served in the federal prosecutors office in Brooklyn, New York, where he was part of a team that convicted Thomas Pitera, a Bonnano organized-crime family hit man known for dismembering his victims.

Both former public defenders with experience in sex-crimes cases, Menninger and Pagliuca have represented Maxwell in civil lawsuits by women who claim she helped Epstein recruit them for underage sex, with Maxwell participating in some of the sexual assaults. –Bloomberg Law

Former Manhattan federal prosecutor Jennifer Rodgers thinks Maxwell’s approach is ‘savvy,’ and that her attorneys Menninger and Pagliuca “know all the facts, so this seems like a smart strategy.”

Prosecutors say the 58-year-old Maxwell, Epstein’s longtime ‘madam’ according to accusers, spent years as a central figure in his criminal enterprise. Epstein died last August in a New York jail cell in what was officially ruled a suicide.

Maxwell’s lawyers will have to review millions of pages of evidence the U.S. has collected over the decades. While her lawyers haven’t yet disclosed their legal strategy, they’ll have to confront the allegations as well as the emotional testimony from women who’ve come forward and accused Maxwell of engaging in and enabling their abuse.

More than a dozen women accused Epstein of abusing them but according to prosecutors, three were victims of both Maxwell and the financier. –Bloomberg Law

It’s a very smart for the defense to hire and obtain local counsel who can guide them,” said New York criminal defense lawyer Marvyn Kornberg, adding that Everdell and Cohen “know their way around, they know people in the prosecutor’s office and they can, if they want, try to work out a deal. They can operate with knowledge about what’s going on with the other side, which can’t be done as well by lawyers who practice primarily in Colorado.”

Meanwhile, former Cohen colleague Jonathan Sack thinks Maxwell’s legal team will be in a good position to form a strategy to counter the DOJ.

“Mark is a thoughtful lawyer who will know his case, understand it and have a good sense of what the prosecution is doing and what the options are for the defense,” said Sack. “He’ll carefully assess the strengths and weaknesses in the government’s case and will have a good feeling for how a jury would view the facts as well as his client.”

 

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

After a modest rally on better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims (1.314m, 1.275m expected) ESUs and stocks declined when the NYSE opened due to ugly Walgreens earnings, Wells Fargo job cuts and possibly o  Fauci’s call for states with Covid spikes to shut down.

Wells Fargo reportedly preparing to cut thousands of jobs

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/wells-fargo-job-cuts-report

Walgreens swings to a quarterly loss as coronavirus drives up costs, lowers doctor visits; shares fall

Cut more than 4,000 jobs in its Boots UK business and shut 48 optician centers in the United Kingdom.

  • Earnings per share: 83 cents, adjusted vs. $1.17 expected
  • Revenue: $34.63 billion vs. $34.36 billion expected

The company said the U.S. business, which was a bright spot in the third quarter, is expected to have stronger sales in the next quarter but warned margins will be squeezed by pandemic-related factors, such as increased home deliveries…The company suspended share buybacks and increased its dividend by 2.2%.    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/walgreens-wba-earnings-q3-2020.html

Fauci Urges States with Serious Coronavirus Surges to ‘Seriously Look at Shutting Down’ 10:04 ET

https://www.newsweek.com/fauci-urges-states-serious-coronavirus-surges-seriously-look-shutting-down-1516626

Supreme Court says Manhattan DA can get Trump’s tax records, rejects bid by House Democrats https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/supreme-court-trump-tax-records.html

Supreme Court rules NY prosecutor can see Trump’s tax returns, case back to lower court

The case will now headed back to a lower court, which appears to mean the years-long matter will not be resolved before the November presidential election.  In the second decision, the high court blocked House Democrats’ requests to access Trump’s tax records… https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/not-ready-scotus

ABC: Joe Biden says it’s time to “help small businesses, middle class folks manage their way through the pandemic.”  “It’s time corporate America paid their fair share in taxes … The days of Amazon paying nothing in federal income tax will be over.” https://abcn.ws/3gLYLQX

 

Biden says investors ‘don’t need me,’ calls for end of ‘era of shareholder capitalism’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/biden-says-investors-dont-need-me-calls-for-end-of-era-of-shareholder-capitalism.html

Wall St will still throw money at Biden’s campaign and BLM. “The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.” – attributed to Lenin

BN: Biden: Wall Street Bankers and CEOs Didn’t Build America

BN: Biden: Trump is focused on Stock Market, Not Working People

Biden Plan: $400B for infrastructure, $300B for technologies like electric vehicles, artificial intelligence & 5G, tax credits for small manufacturers, penalize companies who take federal money and then move investments overseas, hike corp tax rate to 38%, fund universal prekindergarten, expand Social Security, raise the national minimum wage, eliminate cash bail, forgive all undergraduate tuition from two & four-year public colleges and universities, forgive all undergraduate tuition for borrowers who earn $125,000 or less per year and who graduate from a private Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU’s) and Minority-Serving Institutions, split retail & investment banks by reviving the Glass-Steagall and give all Americans an account at the Federal Reserve (would kill banks) [More in politics section].

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-pushes-populist-made-in-america-plan-to-pump-up-economy

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/08/889189235/democratic-task-forces-deliver-biden-a-blueprint-for-a-progressive-presidency

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/07/09/student-loans-biden-sanders/#4518be5265f7

https://www.breakingviews.com/considered-view/biden-policy-palette-would-paint-wall-street-blue/

Tucker Carlson: “The Biden Plan would use the Federal Reserve to fix racial wage gap.  Central bankers will be encouraged to decide if you’re paid too much based on your skin color.

https://twitter.com/LizRNC/status/1281385586654355458

Biden releases U.S.-centered economic plan, challenging Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda

The Biden campaign plan for manufacturing and innovation says it will bring back jobs lost this year and create at least 5 million more with sweeping investments in domestic technology; reduce dependence on foreign countries to supply critical goods; and implement trade and tax policies that empower U.S. workers… (Biden offered only shibboleths; there were NO specifics or details mentioned.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-releases-700-billion-plan-to-spur-american-economy/2020/07/09/f51b846c-c173-11ea-b178-bb7b05b94af1_story.html

After Biden finished his economic address at 15:36 ET (He took no question of course), ESU rallied from 3131.25 to 3150.75 at 15:48 ET.  ESUs and stocks retreated modestly during the final 10 minutes.

@realDonaldTrump: The Supreme Court sends case back to Lower Court, arguments to continue. This is all a political prosecution…now I have to keep fighting in a politically corrupt New York. Not fair to this Presidency or Administration!  We have a totally corrupt previous Administration, including a President and Vice President who spied on my campaign, AND GOT CAUGHT…and nothing happens to them…

    No Republican Senate Judiciary response, NO “JUSTICE”, NO FBI, NO NOTHING. Major horror show REPORTS on Comey & McCabe, guilty as hell, nothing happens. Catch Obama & Biden cold, nothing. A 3 year, $45,000,000 Mueller HOAX, failed – investigated everything

    Won all against the Federal Government and the Democrats send everything to politically corrupt New York, which is falling apart with everyone leaving, to give it a second, third and fourth try. Now the Supreme Court gives a delay ruling that they would never have given  for another President. This is about PROSECUTORIAL MISCONDUCT. We catch the other side SPYING on my campaign, the biggest political crime and scandal in U.S. history, and NOTHING HAPPENS. But despite this, I have done more than any President in history in first 3 1/2 years!

Biden immigration plan grants citizenship to 11 million illegal immigrants https://washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jul/8/joe-biden-immigration-plan-grants-citizenship-11-m/

@RNCResearch: Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders brags that the policies Joe Biden has adopted “will make Biden the most progressive president since FDR”   https://youtu.be/79ZSYkXtdGY

Biden groups seek to unify Democratic Party with [leftist] policy proposals https://reut.rs/3eg6V2a

Serial Plagiarist Joe Biden Cribs Economic Slogan from United Nations

Biden will unveil his $700 billion economic recovery plan, titled “Build Back Better,” in a speech outside Scranton, Pa., on Thursday. The alliterative slogan previously appeared in an April United Nations campaign urging countries to exploit the coronavirus pandemic as an opportunity for “enhancing climate action,” among other agenda items… https://freebeacon.com/2020-election/serial-plagiarist-joe-biden/

@bennyjohnson: Biden: “If it is raining outside, come on, guys. I don’t want anybody out there. Are you guys in the rain? Or is that not rain? Ok, I thought that was rain. It is? You guys can come on in.”

[There was no rain in Scranton, PA. It was birds.] https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1281308305235890178

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/scranton/historic

NYPD overwhelmed by officers filing for retirement

179 officers filed for retirement last week, which was a 411% increase from the same time last year…

https://www.oann.com/nypd-overwhelmed-by-officers-filing-for-retirement/

 

NYPD limits number of cops filing for retirement amid 400% surge of officers heading for the exit because of ‘lack of respect’ spurred by protests and ‘loss of overtime pay following Bill de Blasio’s $1Bn cuts’   https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8504523/NYPD-limits-retirement-applications-cops-file-amid-400.html

 

Nancy Pelosi on Columbus statue toppling: ‘People will do what they do’   https://trib.al/mo27GrP

Explosion reported in Tehran, latest in series of blasts in Iran – Iranian media reports incident in western part of capital; follows explosions at sensitive sites in Iran in past several weeks

https://www.timesofisrael.com/explosion-reported-in-tehran-latest-in-series-of-blasts-in-iran/

 

@JohnBasham at 21:30 ET last night: Reports that Tehran, Iran’s missile air defense system just went active! Is an Aerial attack on Iranian capital by Israel underway?

end

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog

(Greg Hunter)

 

Biden Trashes Cops, Omar Trashes America, and Economy Trashes Itself

 

By Greg Hunter On July 10, 2020

Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden is trashing the police again. He said in an interview this week that because of militarized police forces around the country, the police have “become the enemy.” Biden and his party continue to run on the idea that the police need to be defunded, even though the majority of Americans do not want to defund the police.

Congresswoman Ilhan Omar continues to trash the country that saved her from a Somali refugee camp. In a recent speech, Omar said she wants to “dismantle the whole system of oppression” in the United States. She wants to bring in a new system and has no problem trashing the system that saved her. This is an increasing theme in the Democrat Party that has basically become communist and Marxist and despises America and what it stands for.

The economy is not recovering the way most people think it is. Government stimulus has covered up the severity of the economic demand the overreaction of the Covid 19 shutdown has caused. Some say the shutdown is being used for political purposes, but no one can deny it has caused what many are describing as the Greatest Depression that has already hit America.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you MONDAY night.

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