JULY 16//RAID TODAY AND IT WILL CONTINUE ON TOMORROW: GOLD DOWN $9.80 TO $1801.50//SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TO $19.22//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX: 23.3 TONNES//LOOKS LIKE AUGUST WILL BE A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR GOLD// HUGE UNPRECEDENTED RUN ON CHINESE BANKS//CHINA VS USA//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES/ANOTHER 1.3 MILLION AMERICANS FILE FOR UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS LAST WEEK//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1801.50  DOWN $9.80   The quote is London spot price (cash market)

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$19.22// DOWN 14 CENTS  London spot price ( cash market)

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1797.25  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $19.16//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

AUG GOLD:  $1797.80  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE AUG /:- $2.20

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $19.57…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :  35 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today:0/317

issued:  210

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,811.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/15/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 07/17/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
152 C DORMAN TRADING 42
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 17
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 24
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 8
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 140
661 C JP MORGAN 210
686 C INTL FCSTONE 87
690 C ABN AMRO 36
737 C ADVANTAGE 8 25
800 C MAREX SPEC 13 9
878 C PHILLIP CAPITAL 15
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 317 317
MONTH TO DATE: 7,528

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 317 NOTICE(S) FOR 317,000 OZ  (.9860 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7528 NOTICES FOR 752,800 OZ  (23.415 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

752 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 3,760,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 14,671 for 73.355 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9116  DOWN 80

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9127 DOWN $74

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

 

 

 

GLD: 1,206.89 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE  SLV: A HUGE  PAPER DEPOSIT  OF 5.123 MILLION OZ//

WHAT A FRAUD!!

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 521.197  MILLION OZ./

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 172 CONTRACTS FROM 178,367 UP  TO 178,539, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE TINY SIZED GAIN IN  OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG 21 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A SMALL DECREASE  IN SILVER STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.  WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2902 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   JULY: 0  AND SEP 2730 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2730 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2730 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2730 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 13.65 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 21 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

81.550 MILLION OZ INITIALLY IN JULY.

 

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 21 CENTS).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE SMALL GAIN AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL DECREASE IN STANDING OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY,  STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A  NET GAIN OF 2902 CONTRACTS OR 14,51 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JULY:

9599 CONTRACTS (FOR 11 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 9599 CONTRACTS) OR 47.99 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 873 CONTRACTS OR 4.363 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY: 47.99 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 6.85% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,185.41 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EXP                               47.99 MILLION OZ/

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 60 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED  AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 172, DESPITE OUR 21 CENT GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///WEDNESDAYTHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2730 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2902 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 21 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 2730 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A TINY SIZED INCREASE OF 172 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 21 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $19.36 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.892 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 127% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JULY  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 752 NOTICE(S) FOR 3,760,000  OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 81.550 million oz
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1322 CONTRACTS TO 578,853 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE  OF $1.65 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY// WE  HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.65 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  64

 

WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 1130 CONTRACTS  (3.514 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 2425 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 2045 AND OCT: 380 DEC: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2425.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 578.853. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1130 CONTRACTS: 1322 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2425 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 1130 CONTRACTS OR 3.514 TONNES. WEDNESDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $1.65 IN GOLD TRADING

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 4.416 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $1.65).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (2425) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (1005 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  1130 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)ANOTHER HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN GOLD  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JULY MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS.5) SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE… AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR TINY GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//WEDNESDAY//$1.65.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 42,083 CONTRACTS OR 4,208,300 oz OR 130.89 TONNES (11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4112 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 130.89 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 130.89/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.68% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3149.09  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       130.89 TONNES SO FAR..

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 172 CONTRACTS FROM 178,367 UP TO 178,551 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE TINY GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1)   HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL DECREASE STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR JULY AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 2730 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 2730 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2730 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 172  CONTRACTS TO THE 2730 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 2902 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 14.720 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG 21 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 151.21 POINTS OR 4.50%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 510.89 POINTS OR 2.00%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 175.13 POINTS OR 0.76%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .61%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9936 /Oil UP TO 40.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 43.55 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9936 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9920 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1322 CONTRACTS TO 578,581 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS SMALL  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN OF $1.65 IN GOLD PRICING /WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2425 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER HUMONGOUS STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//JULY DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) , …  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1420 CONTRACTS DESPITE GOLD’S SMALL LOSS IN PRICE. NOTE THE FACT THAT LATELY THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ARE SMALL.. SOME OF OUR MAJOR BANKERS ARE BANNED FROM USING THE SERIAL FORWARDS.  IF THEY USE THIS VEHICLE IT MUST BE USED FOR PHYSICAL ONLY. SINCE THEY CANNOT TRANSFER TO LONDON THEY ARE FORCED TO INCREASE THEIR SHORT POSITIONS AT THE GOLD COMEX…. AND SOME HAVE MOVED SOME CONTRACTS OVER TO THE NEW 400 OZ LONDON ENHANCED VEHICLE.

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 64

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2425 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  AUG  2045 , OCT: 380  DEC 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2425 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  1420 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2425 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 1322 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A SMALL  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL COMEX OI LOSS,  A HUGE  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JULY DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION……AND WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE WE HAD A TINY GAIN IN COMEX PRICE OF 1.65 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $1.65).  AND, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A GOOD 3.514 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 1130 CONTRACTS OR 113,000 OZ OR 3.514 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  578,539 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 57.85 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1799 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1799/2200 OR 81.78% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 194,424 contracts//poor volume//hitting rock bottom//most traders have moved to London

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  201,825 contracts//  volume poor //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

JULY 16 /2020

JULY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

NIL

OZ

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
317 notice(s)
 31700 OZ
(.9860 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
50 contracts
(5000 oz)
0.1555 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7528 notices
752800 OZ
23.415 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

 

 

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

 

 

i)NIL

 

 

 

total deposit:  NIL oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

TOTAL gold withdrawals;  nil

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1 //   

i) out of Manfra:  20,128.866 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and into the dealer account of Manfra.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of JULY registered a total of 367 oi contracts FOR a GAIN of 44 contracts. We had 86 notices served on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED ANOTHER  130 contracts or an additional 13,000 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

 

Next comes August and another strong delivery month and here the OI FELL BY only 6,742  contracts DOWN to 298,084 contracts, as we continue our countdown to first day notice.

August is contracting very slowly and thus we will have a humdinger of a delivery month.

 

Sept saw another addition of 73 contracts to stand at 421.  Oct GAINED 240 contracts UP to 37,973. (The boys prefer August)

 

We had 317 notices filed today for 31700 oz

 

FOR THE JULY 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 317 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7528) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY (367 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (317 x 100 oz per contract) equals 757,800 OZ OR 23.57 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (7528 x 100 oz + (367 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (317) x 100 oz which equals 757,800 oz standing OR 23.57 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JULY delivery month (a  non active delivery month).

We gained 130 contracts or an additional 13000 oz will stand at the comex.

We are now witnessing an increase in queue jumping on a daily basis. Sooner or later they will be running out of metal to supply our longs.

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

302,293.430 oz PLEDGED  JULY 9// 2020  JPMORGAN:  9.40 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

 

657,424.187 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/july 2               20.448 tonnes

total pledged gold:  1,146,354.687 oz                                     35.65 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 379.79 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 23.57 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  13,356,909.987 oz or 415.46 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020/SOME JULY 9) which cannot be settled upon:  302,293.43, oz (or 9.402 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 657,424.187 oz added which cannot be settled:  20.448 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,146,354.687 oz or 35.65 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:  12,210,555.0  (379.79 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  12,210,555.0 (379.79 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,799,437.934 oz (646.94 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   34,456,347.921 oz 1071.74 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  945.40 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JULY 16/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

 

JULY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 624,826.880 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
603,883.100 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
752
CONTRACT(S)
(3,760,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1639 contracts
 8,195,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  14671 contracts

73,355,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

 

ii) Into CNT: 603,883.100 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.744 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.67% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/323.767 million

 

total customer deposits today:  603,883.100    oz

we had 1 withdrawals:

 

ii) Out of CNT:  624,826.880 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals; 624,826.880   oz

We had 0 adjustments

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver: 127.311 million

total dealer + customer silver:  323.767 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The front month of July has an open interest of  2391 contracts, as we lost 27 contracts.  We had 16 notices served on WEDNESDAY, so we lost a tiny 11 contracts or an additional 55,000 oz will not stand in this active delivery month of July as they  morphed into a London based forwards.  It seems that we have little silver over on this side of the pond.

 

 

 

The next month after July is the non active month of  August and here  sees its open interest ROSE by 7 contracts UP to 817

The big September contract month sees a loss of 247 contracts down to 139,998.

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2020. contract month is represented by 752 contract(s) FOR 3,760,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 14,671 x 5,000 oz = 73,355,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY.(2391) and the number of notices served upon today 752 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 14,671 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (2391)- number of notices served upon today (752) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.equals 81,550,000 oz.  (A WHOPPER )

WE LOST 11 CONTRACTS OR 55,000 OZ WILL NOT  STAND FOR DELIVERY. SILVER IS STILL VERY SCARCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AND THE REASON FOR MORPHING OVER TO LONDON.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 50,865 CONTRACTS // volume fair/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY:61,961.,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume fair/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 61,961 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 309 million  OZ  44.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 0.33% ((JULY 16/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO -+.16% to NAV:   (JULY 16/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.33%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 17.32 TRADING 17.25///NEGATIVE 0.42

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 15//WITH GOLD UP $1.55 TODAY/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 3.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1203.97 TONNES

JULY 13//WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.46 TONNES

JULY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.82 TONNES

JULY 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OX 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1202.57 TONNES

JULY 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.75 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1199.36 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 30//WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $5.03 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.46 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.39 TONNES

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

JULY 16/ GLD INVENTORY 1206.89 tonnes*

LAST;  862 TRADING DAYS:   +263.07 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 762 TRADING DAYS://+441.18  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF  5.123 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.197 MILLION OZ..

JULY 15.WITH SILVER  UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.074 MILLION OZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 13//WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.677 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 4.844 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT  515.795 MILLION OZ

WHAT A FRAUD!!

JULY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 8.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.951 MILLION OZ/

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.118 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//VERY SURPRISING.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.753 MILLION OZ//

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ///

JULY 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.008 MILLION OZ

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.007 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE//// AND A LARGE DEPOSIT OF 1.212 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 16.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

521.197 MILLION OZ.

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

‘Death Cross’ Strikes U.S. Dollar As Virus Cases Grow

(Reuters)

A resurgent coronavirus pandemic in the United States and the prospect of improving growth abroad are souring some investors on the dollar, threatening a years-long rally in the currency.

The dollar index is off 6% from its recent highs, while net bets against the currency in futures markets stand near their highest level since 2018.

A decline in the dollar earlier this week set off a technical formation known as a “Death Cross,” which occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, according to analysts at BofA Global Research.
Past occurrences of the Death Cross have been followed by a period of dollar weakness eight out of nine times since 1980 when the 200-day moving average has been declining, as it is now, analysts at the bank said.

The U.S. currency’s weakness comes amid criticism over the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic and protests over racial inequality that has eroded support for President Donald Trump months before the Nov. 3 presidential election

You can read the full article here

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold hits 1-week peak as U.S.-China row adds to safe-haven demand

Gold ends with a modest loss, holding ground above $1,800 an ounce

Trump says he is ‘not interested’ in trade talks with China

Fed officials warn on ‘thick fog’ ahead for U.S. economy as recovery concerns deepen

Treasury yields move higher ahead of Fed’s Beige Book report

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

14-Jul-20 1798.20 1801.90, 1436.58 1440.62 & 1583.14 1581.71
13-Jul-20 1808.05 1807.50, 1435.23 1432.26 & 1598.32 1591.68
10-Jul-20 1805.75 1803.10, 1433.40 1427.33 & 1599.35 1594.84
09-Jul-20 1812.45 1812.10, 1434.01 1431.74 & 1600.57 1600.08
08-Jul-20 1799.35 1811.10, 1438.40 1438.74 & 1596.38 1598.48
07-Jul-20 1775.50 1789.55, 1423.77 1424.84 & 1576.11 1585.00
06-Jul-20 1774.40 1787.90, 1420.76 1429.43 & 1572.12 1578.36
03-Jul-20  1774.65 1772.90, 1426.29 1422.40 & 1580.33 1577.70
02-Jul-20  1771.85 1777.45, 1415.00 1421.60 & 1568.97 1577.13
01-Jul-20  1787.40 1771.15, 1444.90 1424.63 & 1592.93 1574.82

 

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ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

iii) Other physical stories:

Soaring Inflation To Send Gold To $5000 “Doomsday” Fund Predicts

Picking up on what Russell Napier said recently, when the formerly iconic deflationist threw in the towel and now expects inflation because “control of money supply has permanently left the hands of central bankers”, a fund manager who returned 47% this year by betting heavily on gold and Treasuries says the next decade is going to be marked by inflation that central banks are powerless to control.

Diego Parrilla, who heads the $450 million Quadriga Igneo fund dubbed “Doomsday” by Bloomberg, perhaps because unlike most of his peers he refused to buy into the biggest groupthink trade ever namely FAAMG stocks, said unprecedented monetary stimulus is fueling asset bubbles and corporate debt addiction, which renders rate hikes impossible without an economic crash. In the ensuing market mania, the manager whose portfolio is loaded up with cross-asset hedges says gold could rise as high as $5,000 an ounce in the next three to five years, more than doubling from its current price of $1,800 which is just shy of all time highs.

“What you’re going to see in the next decade is this desperate effort, which is already very obvious, where banks and government just print money and borrow, and bail everyone out, whatever it takes, just to prevent the entire system from collapsing,” Parrilla told Bloomberg in an interview from Madrid.

Actually, we get why Quadriga Igneo was called “Doomsday”: it does not shy away from the truth that the Fed has pushed the financial system into a corner where any deviation from massive money injections would lead to catastrophe. Also, unlike most hedge funds – which as we noted earlier no longer function as they should due to central bank interventions – and whose job is to compound steady returns over time, Parrilla’s fund is similar to a “black swan” fund in that it tends to hedge the next big crash while generating capital over time. Managers with a tail-risk bias position for extreme market events, typically bucking mainstream views on Wall Street.

While calls for surging inflation have been often made in the past decade, yet were confined to financial assets while the broader economy suffered from lack of aggregate demand, Parrilla believes that the stimulus packages have exacerbated deeper issues within the financial system, “such as central banks who have kept interest-rates near zero for more than a decade and are willing to re-write the policy rulebook in a crisis.”

While the jury is still out on if and when soaring inflation will hit – although we should note that in recent weeks such prominent deflationists as Albert Edwards, Russell Napier and Horseman’s Russell Clark have all shifted to expecting runaway inflation in the coming year – Parrilla may be on to something if only based on the soaring value of his asset portfolio which soared as virus-fueled fear ripped through markets in February and March. The fund is about 50% invested in gold and precious metals, 25% in Treasuries and the rest in options strategies that profit from market chaos, such as calls on gold and the U.S. dollar.

“This is the part that makes us super explosive,” he said.

Quoted by Bloomberg, Parrilla, who previously ran the commodities department for Old Mutual Global Investors, described his investment process as search for anti-bubbles: unusually cheap assets that do well when bubbles burst. It had to wait patiently until its moment came: the Quadriga Igneo fund was launched in 2018 and had returned 10% by the end of the year. Performance was flat in 2019 before exploding by 50% in 2020.

“What we’ve seen over the last decade is the transformation from risk-free interest to interest-free risk, and what this has created is a global series of parallel synchronous bubbles,” said the fund manager, who is also the author of a book called “The Anti-Bubbles: Opportunities Heading into Lehman Squared and Gold’s Perfect Storm.”

“One of the key bubbles is fiat currency, and one clear anti-bubble in this system is gold,” he said, adding that other examples are volatility, correlations and inflation. “It’s a case of when, not if, they will reprice significantly higher.” We, and many others agree.

Parrilla is on a good start: gold has rallied 19% this year and captivated some of the world’s most prominent investors this year, who argue that the rapid expansion of central bank balance sheets will reduce fiat currency values and drive demand for hard assets.

“The bubbles are too big to fail and mommy and daddy will do whatever it takes to prevent this,” said Parrilla, referring to central banks who now step in and prop up capital markets after even a modest drop.

The 2018 Realvision clip below captures some of Parrilla’s core views.

END
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9936/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9920   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 510.89 POINTS OR 2.00%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 175.14 POINTS OR 0.76%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 95.99/Euro FALLS TO 1.1433

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. + 02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.08/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 40.11 and Brent: 43.55

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen down CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.48%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.18% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.66: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.23

3k Gold at $1807.60 silver at: 19.36   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 30/100 in roubles/dollar) 71.29

3m oil into the 40 dollar handle for WTI and 43 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.08 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9435 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0790 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.48%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.05% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.30%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.857..

US Futures Slide As Chinese Stocks Crash

S&P futures slipped back under 3,200 and Chinese stocks finally cracked overnight, after a surprise drop in China’s retail sales signaled a bumpy economic recovery, with investors now turning to for guidance from the ECB on on its massive stimulus program. The dollar jumped and Treasury yields drifted lower.

 

Nasdaq futures led declines among the main American equity benchmarks, with Twitter plunging 6.6% in the premarket as hackers accessed its internal systems to hijack some of the platform’s top voices including U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden, reality TV star Kim Kardashian West, former U.S. President Barack Obama and billionaire Elon Musk and used them to solicit digital currency. Tesla dropped 4.9% as its vehicle registrations nearly halved in the U.S. state of California during the second quarter, according to data from a marketing research firm.

Bank of America Corp shares edged lower after it reported a more than 50% decline in second-quarter profit, setting aside $4 billion for potential loan losses tied to the coronavirus pandemic. Morgan Stanley is due to report quarterly results later in the day, wrapping up what has been a mixed bag of quarterly earnings updates from the top six U.S. lenders. Johnson & Johnson was flat as it posted a 35.3% fall in quarterly profit as demand for its medical devices was hammered by hospitals putting off non-urgent procedures such as knee and hip replacement. Diversified manufacturer Honeywell and medical device maker Abbott Laboratories (ABT.N) are also slated to report their quarterly results on Thursday.

Stock markets in Asia and Europe also fell earlier in the day after data showed China’s retail sales fell 1.8% in June.

 

Asian stocks fell, led by communications and health care, after rising in the last session. Most markets in the region were down, with Shanghai Composite dropping 4.5% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index falling 2%, while India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index gained 0.5%. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index members was 20% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Topix declined 0.7%, with Yoshimura Food Holdings and ITmedia falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 4.5%, with China Life and Nacity Property Service posting the biggest slides.

 

The slump in tech shares and the reminder of the long road ahead to a full global recovery is quashing optimism seen earlier in the week spurred by progress in developing a coronavirus vaccine. While China is experiencing a modest domestic recovery, it remains vulnerable to setbacks as shutdowns continue to hamper activity across the globe.

“The problem is, this is still uneven,” Helen Qiao, chief greater China economist at Bank of America Corp., said on Bloomberg TV, referring to the latest data. “It is hard to see how China can remain on a firm footing at a time when the rest of the world is still coping with a very deep recession.”

In macro, the dollar rose against all Group-of-10 peers and the euro fell to a two-day low in European hours as risk sentiment worsened and given positioning ahead of the ECB. The central bank is widely expected to keep its QE program unchanged at 1.35 trillion euros, supplemented by negative interest rates and generous long-term loans to banks. The Swiss franc and the yen held up well, in line with familiar risk-off patterns; the Norwegian krone was the worst Group-of-10 performer as oil prices edged lower after closing at a four-month high; the OPEC+ alliance confirmed it would start tapering output cuts from next month. The Australian dollar fell as traders focused on the upward revision of job losses in May and a record spike in coronavirus cases in the nation’s second-most populous state.

In rates, 10Y Treasurues were modestly higher, with 10Y yields at 0.62% last. Gilts edged higher after Britain ramped up its bond sale plan by another 110 billion pounds, which was less than the 115 billion pounds estimated in a Bloomberg survey of primary dealers. Most regional bonds climbed ahead of the ECB’s policy decision, where it’s expected to keep its emergency bond-buying program unchanged. President Christine Lagarde will likely face questions over whether the current level of support is sufficient.

Looking at the day ahead now, the ECB meeting and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference are likely to be the highlights. Other central bank speakers today include the Fed’s Williams, Bostic and Evans. Data releases include June’s retail sales, the weekly initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for July, and the NAHB housing market index for July. Earnings releases will include Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, Bank of America, Abbott Laboratories and Morgan Stanley.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 3,194.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1% to 370.26
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to -0.45%
  • Euro down 0.07% to $1.1404
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 1.074%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 0.426%
  • MXAP down 1.5% to 164.16
  • MXAPJ down 1.8% to 538.13
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 22,770.36
  • Topix down 0.7% to 1,579.06
  • Hang Seng Index down 2% to 24,970.69
  • Shanghai Composite down 4.5% to 3,210.10
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 36,212.32
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 6,010.86
  • Kospi down 0.8% to 2,183.76
  • Brent futures down 0.9% to $43.38/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,805.32
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 96.18

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Tokyo joined Australia’s second-biggest state in posting record coronavirus cases as second waves spread in several hotspots
  • The Chinese economy expanded 3.2% in the second quarter from a year ago as the nation returned to growth, but the economy remains 1.6% smaller than a year ago and details showed the recovery was uneven, with a contraction in retail sales continuing in June
  • As countries across Asia Pacific struggle with resurgences of the coronavirus, one data point is steering government responses: the share of cases with no clear indication of how infection occurred
  • For all the pressure on U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak to explain how he’ll repair public finances ravaged by the coronavirus, investors are lending the money with very few questions
  • A relentlessly expanding physical hoard of bullion stored in London and New York means exchange-traded funds have usurped managed money in the futures market as the key driver of the price of the shiny metal
  • The number of hours worked in the U.K. economy fell the most on the record in the coronavirus lockdown, underlining the risk facing the labor market as government income support is phased out

Asian stocks traded negatively as the recent vaccine optimism that underpinned global stocks took a back seat to the slew of tier-1 releases in the region including Australian Employment numbers, as well as Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales data. ASX 200 (-0.7%) was subdued with underperformance seen in commodity names and amid rumours of a potential Stage 4 lockdown surrounding Victoria state where its capital Melbourne is currently under stage 3 restrictions. Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) was pressured by recent detrimental currency flows and after falling short of the 23K status, while KOSPI (-0.6%) also declined after the BoK kept rates unchanged at 0.5% as expected and provided a grim tone on the economy. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-2.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (-4.5%) failed to benefit from the mostly better than expected Chinese data in which GDP and Industrial Production topped estimates but Retail Sales disappointed and showed a surprise contraction which led to concerns related to consumer demand and an uneven recovery. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher amid the negative mood across stocks and improved demand at the enhanced liquidity auction for 2yr-20yr JGBs.

Top Asian News

  • Apple Supplier JDI Surges as CEO Reveals Mobile OLED Talks
  • Worst China Stocks Selloff Since February Caps Brutal Reversal
  • Hong Kong Sees Record 63 Local Virus Cases in Swelling Wave
  • Thai Finance Minister Quits in Cabinet Shake-Up Amid Slump

European equities have started the session on the backfoot (Eurostoxx 50 -0.7%) as markets take a breather from some of the recent vaccine-inspired gains. Macro newsflow from a European perspective has been light as markets look ahead to the latest policy announcement from the ECB today and perhaps more importantly the upcoming negotiations on the EU recovery fund and budget. In terms of the composition of losses in Europe, all sectors trade lower with the exception of oil & gas names which trade closer to the unchanged mark post-yesterday’s JMMC agreement while telecom names are erring higher as well. The laggard in Europe is Food & Beverage with Heineken (-2.5%) a noteworthy underperformer after the Co. reported a 16% decline in H1 sales. Elsewhere, for the luxury sector, Richemont (-5.3%) sit near the foot of the Stoxx 600 after posting a near 50% decline in Q1 trading revenue in what was a particularly bleak earnings report. Other movers include Zalando (+2.1%) and Atos (-1.7%) post-earnings, whilst Deutsche Lufthansa (-3.0%) lag other travel & leisure names despite noting that it hopes to get around 90% of its short haul flights back up and running by the end of October.

Top European News

  • Analysts Wary After Biggest Swedish Bank Has Tiny Impairment
  • U.K. Bond-Sale Plan Is Now Equal to 18% of GDP to Fund Recovery
  • Risky Debt Threatens U.K. Recovery, Finance Lobby Says
  • Johnson Battles U.K. Spy Watchdog Ahead of Key Russia Report

In FX, the Dollar has clawed back more lost ground vs G10 and EM rivals on renewed safe haven demand as euphoria over COVID-19 vaccines fades somewhat and markets look ahead to key events, like the ECB, US retail sales data and weekly initial claims. However, the DXY still looks precarious just above 96.000 after Wednesday’s bearish break below the round number (to 95.770 and just off the June low), as coronavirus cases and deaths continue to rise in several states and reach fresh record peaks in some areas, such as Texas yesterday.

  • GBP/NZD/AUD – The major victims of a reversal in broad risk sentiment and associated Greenback revival, but with Cable also undermined by negative technical factors having lost grip of the 1.2600 handle and a series of shorter term MA levels, including the 50, 100 and 200 markers, on the way down through 1.2550. Note, conflicting UK jobs data has not really impacted, but the Pound may be taking heed of NIRP expectations in Short Sterling futures that been brought forward by some 6 months in wake of BoE’s Tenreyro’s ‘live’ revelation yesterday. Meanwhile, benign NZ CPI and a mixed Aussie employment report have not helped the Nzd or Aud retain gains vs the Usd, with the former back under 0.6550 and the latter retreating through 0.7000.
  • EUR/CAD/JPY/CHF – Also unwinding outperformance relative to the Buck, as the Euro relinquishes 1.1400+ status ahead of the ECB policy meeting and press conference amidst another heavy spread of option expiries descending from just shy of Wednesday’s high (circa 1.1452) at 1.1440-30 (1 bn) through 1.1380-75 (1 bn) down to 1.1350 (2 bn). Note, a full preview of the upcoming July ECB convene and presser is available on our Research Suite and will be reposted via the headline feed in the run up to the event. Similarly, the Loonie is paring back post-BoC between 1.3502-29 parameters against the backdrop of softer crude prices, while the Yen has pulled back from over 107.00, albeit some distance from 1.5 bn expiry interest at 107.25-35, and the Franc is straddling 0.9450.
  • SCANDI/EM – General weakness, or payback after midweek session strength with few exceptions and the oil/commodity bloc bearing the brunt of the general deterioration in temperament. However, the Cnh is holding around 7.0000 following another firm PBoC Cny fix and a slew of Chinese data overnight that was either side of expectations, but comfortably above consensus in terms of Q2 GDP.

In commodities, WTI and Brent are once again subdued following the modest pullback in sentiment more broadly before today’s key central bank event. For the crude complex itself, since yesterday’s JMMC meeting where they confirmed OPEC+ will begin easing production cuts to 7.7mln BPD (~8.3mln BPD when taking compensation into account) there has been very little in the way of fundamental updates. As attention now returns more so to the demand side of the equation and the impact of any further COVID-19 induced headwinds; for the supply side, attention will be on whether OPEC+ members who are required to over-compensate do so as well as the situation in areas including Libya. Elsewhere, spot gold has had a somewhat more rangebound session but has most recently erred lower as European equity bourses attempt to rise from their session lows. Saudi Energy Minister said the effective oil cuts in August will be around 8.1-8.2mln BPD and reportedly commented that it is too late to change August quotas at this JMMC since term lifters’ nominations are already set for the month. (Newswires)

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 1.25m, prior 1.31m; Continuing Claims, est. 17.5m, prior 18.1m
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 5.0%, prior 17.7%; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 5.0%, prior 12.4%
    • Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 5.0%, prior 12.4%; Retail Sales Control Group, est. 4.0%, prior 11.0%
  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 20, prior 27.5
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 42.9
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. -2.3%, prior -1.3%
  • 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 61, prior 58
  • 4pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $128.4b deficit; Total Net TIC Flows, prior $125.3b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Risk assets were positive but volatile yesterday. It looked like a decent session was going to fizzle out as stocks dipped from their peaks 45 minutes before the European close as US/China tensions hit the headlines again and tech stocks came under some pressure after a dizzying run. However by the end of the session the S&P 500 reversed its downward course to finish just shy of its post-pandemic high. The reversal seemed driven by headlines that President Trump has told aides that he does not want to escalate tensions with China and also that Senate Majority Leader McConnell reiterated his plans to release a fiscal stimulus bill early next week. By the close the S&P 500 had advanced a further +0.91%, but was up as much as +1.27% at the day’s high and had briefly erased its YTD losses. The Nasdaq was up a lesser +0.59%, having been up over 1% earlier in the session but in negative territory after Europe closed. The best performing stocks were some of the most affected by the pandemic and the shutdowns. In the US, Airlines were among the leading industries, up over +10%, while Norwegian Cruise Line (+20.68%), Carnival (+16.22%), and Royal Caribbean Cruises (+21.20%) were among the best performing stocks in the S&P.

It was a similar story in Europe, where the Travel and Leisure sector (+6.06%) led the STOXX 600 higher, however the sector is still over -33% down from pre-pandemic highs compared to the broad index which is down -13.83%. The rise of cruise lines, airlines and other hospitality stocks in both the US and Europe was likely tied in parts to the positive vaccine stories over the last 36 hours. Europe managed to survive the aforementioned dip in risk sentiment with most of the bourses up by around 2%, including the STOXX 600 (+1.76%), the DAX (+1.84%) and the CAC 40 (+2.03%).

In terms of earnings, Goldman Sachs rose +1.4% yesterday as they announced, like their American peers, a large jump in fixed incoming trading. FICC sales and trading revenue of $4.24 billion beat an estimate of $2.64 billion. Also in-line with peers was the large Q2 provision for credit losses, up $1.59 billion from the prior year. Alcoa slightly beat after the close, but most importantly on the earnings call CEO Harvey said, “if the number of virus cases increases substantially in a prolonged first or potential second wave, a new round of strict lockdown orders would likely cause the current demand recovery to reverse course.”

Asian markets are trading lower this morning with the Nikkei (-0.71%), Hang Seng (-1.17%), Shanghai Comp (-1.41%), Kospi (-0.52%) and Asx (-0.97%) all down. A miss on retail sales data seems to be weighing on Chinese bourses even as Q2 GDP surprised on the upside (more below). The jump in COVID-19 infections in the region seems to also be acting as an overhang. Futures on the S&P 500 are also trading down -0.40%.

In more detail on the data, China’s Q2 GDP surprised on the upside with a reading of +3.2% yoy (vs. +2.4% yoy expected). Only 2 out of 28 economists on Bloomberg had pencilled in an above +3% print. Bloomberg highlighted that public investment swung to growth of +2.1% yoy in 1H, after contracting in the first 5 months. China’s 1H GDP growth now stands at -1.6% yoy (vs. -2.4% yoy expected). Alongside GDP we saw the other main data releases for June with industrial production rising in line with expectations at +4.8% yoy while YtD fixed asset investment came in at -3.1% yoy (vs. -3.3% yoy expected). Retail sales disappointed with a print of -1.8% yoy (vs. +0.5% yoy expected). The surveyed jobless rate for the month fell to 5.7% (vs. 5.9% last month). Elsewhere, Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote in a brief letter to a group of global chief executives that “We will continue efforts to deepen reform and opening, and provide a more sound business environment for Chinese and overseas investors.”

On the coronavirus, markets were initially reacting to the previous night’s news from the Moderna’s trial, in which their vaccine produced antibodies in all the patients tested. In response the company’s share price was up by +6.90% yesterday. The other news came through from UK ITV’s Robert Peston, who tweeted that “Positive news is coming on Oxford Covid-19 vaccine. The vaccine is generating the kind of antibody and T-cell (killer cell) response that the researchers would hope to see, I understand.” AstraZeneca shares surged following that tweet, ending the day up +5.23%, and Peston’s report on the ITV website said that the news could come as soon as today. Sky News also reported that the Lancet medical journal will publish data on the potential AstraZeneca Plc vaccine on Monday, so one to look out for.

There are some signs that the virus’ continued spread throughout the US may be slightly slowing in states that showed sharp increases in mid-June. Florida reported a 3.5% increase in cases yesterday, below the 4.5% weekly average. Still deaths continue to rise in the state, a further 112 reported yesterday compared to the average of 90 per day over the last week. Meanwhile Arizona saw a 2.5% increase that is also lower than its weekly average of 2.9%, however positive tests in the state remain very high at 23.4%, indicating that the official count may be missing a large number of cases. Deaths in the state rose by 97, the 5th increase in the last 6 days, and well above the 7 day average of 68. We would expect case growth to slow down this week as activity has dropped in these regions. Overall cases in the US rose by 2.0%, in-line with the last week’s average. According to rtlive’s model, only 6 states currently have an Rt under 1.0 and so there is very real concern of cases rising throughout the country even as the majority of the northeast sees limited case growth.

In Asia, after Tokyo raised their alert level to the highest point on a 4-point scale yesterday, they reported a record 280 confirmed cases today. The 7-day average of new cases in the city is now above its April peak. Tokyo‘s governor has urged residents to avoid stores that don’t meet guidelines designed to reduce the spread, but hasn’t called on businesses to close their doors yet. Australia’s second most populous state, Victoria recorded 317 new cases in the past 24 hours, the largest single-day increase for any of Australia’s states and territories.

On another note, the use of masks continued to become more widespread, with Walmart announcing that it would require all customers to wear them in its US stores from July 20. This comes as more US states have adopted mask mandates in recent days, the most recent of which was Alabama yesterday. The state borders recent hotspot Florida and has seen daily new cases rise by over 1,500 for 4 days in a row for the first time. In Europe, both Ireland and Serbia announced that the use of masks would become mandatory. The former also announced that they will delay the latest phase of reopening, which included bars and nightclubs, after the effective transmission rate rose over 1.0 in the country.

Attention today will turn to the ECB’s latest monetary policy decision, along with President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Our European economists write in their preview (link here ) that they expect the policy statement to remain unchanged, following the decision at the last meeting to expand the envelope for their Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme by a further €600bn, bringing the total up to €1.35tn. Though recent comments from ECB officials have shown signs of an emerging optimism, our economists don’t believe these signal a change in the policy stance, and expect the commitment to “substantial monetary policy stimulus” to be repeated. Other issues to look out for include any comments from President Lagarde on the German Constitutional Court, now that the German Bundestag has passed a motion on proportionality.

Staying on Europe, our economists have written a fresh blog post on the proposed EU recovery fund ahead of the special European Council summit that commences tomorrow in Brussels (link here ). Their view is that although an agreement is still possible this weekend, it would now be a positive surprise, with the political messaging having shifted away from expecting a (full) agreement on Friday and Saturday. This could simply be expectations management, but so far there is no indication of the differences of opinion between member states having been bridged yet. That said, if agreement is not reached this weekend, then they still expect an agreement within weeks. The question of how the market will respond to the lack of an agreement will ultimately depend on the post-summit statements on how close or far the EU is from an agreement.

Ahead of that and the ECB later today, the euro actually strengthened to a 4-month high against the US dollar yesterday, at $1.1412. Indeed, if it surpasses the $1.145 it reached at the height of the market’s pandemic fears in early March, that’ll take the euro to its strongest level against the dollar in over a year. Meanwhile in fixed income, yields on 10yr Italian debt fell by -1.1bps to close at their lowest level in over 3 months, but bunds held steady, with just a +0.3bps rise. Over in the US, yields on 10yr Treasuries similarly rose by just +0.7bps.

Looking at yesterday’s data, the main news came from the US, where industrial production rose by a stronger-than-expected +5.4% in June (vs. +4.3% expected), though this still left IP -10.9% below its level in February before the pandemic hit. Further positive news came from the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey, with the headline general business conditions index rising to 17.2 (vs. 10.0 expected), the first positive reading since February. Finally here in the UK, the June CPI reading rose by a tenth to +0.6% (vs. +0.4% expected),which is the first time that the inflation rate has risen since January.

To the day ahead now, and as mentioned the ECB meeting and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference are likely to be the highlights. Other central bank speakers today include BoE Governor Bailey, along with the Fed’s Williams, Bostic and Evans. Data releases include May’s UK unemployment and the Euro Area trade balance, while over in the US, we’ll get June’s retail sales, the weekly initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for July, and the NAHB housing market index for July. Earnings releases will include Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, Bank of America, Abbott Laboratories and Morgan Stanley.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 151.21 POINTS OR 4.50%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 510.89 POINTS OR 2.00%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 175.13 POINTS OR 0.76%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .61%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9936 /Oil UP TO 40.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 43.55 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9936 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9920 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

Collapse in confidence is surging a surge in Chinese bank runs

(zerohedge)

China Rocked By “Unprecedented” Surge In Bank Runs

At first, it was an unthinkable taboo – after all with a banking system that’s twice as large as that of the US, the last thing Beijing wanted (or could afford) was doubts that the people’s trillions in savings were safe as the alternative was not just a collapse of the financial sector but a breach of China’s capital controls firewall as tens of millions scrambled to move their savings abroad, in the process obliterating the yuan. Then, starting in early 2019 after several banks quietly failed or were not so quietly nationalized

… most notably the inner-Mongolia-based Baoshang Bank which was seized in the first state takeover since 1998, domestic confidence in China’s banking system was suddenly – and perhaps irreparably – shaken, leading to scattered scenes such as these as depositor runs hammered several  Chinese banks , forcing Beijing to unleash unprecedented damage control (and internet censorship) to keep the illusion that all is well.

 

Customers form lines in front of Yichuan bank; photo: WSJ

 

 

Zhang Yanting, a 51-year-old farmer, walked away with a wad of cash from his savings account at Yichuan Bank

Fast forward to today, when a confluence of the adverse trends that emerged in 2018 and 2019, coupled with the historic economic slowdown in China’s economy, and accelerated by social media-fueled rumors about collapsing banks have sparked what Bloomberg called an “unprecedented” surge of bank runs, forcing regulators and even the police to step in to calm depositors.

According to Bloomberg, in just the past few weeks, worried savers have descended on three banks to withdraw funds amid rumors of cash shortages that were later dismissed as false.

Over the weekend customers rushed to a bank in the northern Hebei province to take out money, prompting local regulators to publicly vouch for the soundness of its lenders as the police halted the run.

Indeed, as Bloomberg adds, “after several bailouts and the first bank seizure in more than two decades last year, the coronavirus outbreak and its economic fallout have exacerbated an already shaky situation in the world’s largest banking system” leading to a sharp erosion of confidence in the $43 trillion banking system among the nation’s more than 1 billion account holders, threatening a cornerstone of China’s rise into an economic powerhouse.

“The perception Chinese savers had of banks being risk free is changing even though in nearly all recent cases their deposits have been protected,” said China International Capital Corp analyst Zhang Shuaishuai.

“Once a rumor like this spreads, it brings immediate liquidity risk to a bank.”

There is probably a reason for why these “rumors” have led to such a dramatic response: they merely bring to the surface whatever most already know, namely that behind its sterling facade, China’s banking system is rotten to the core, with lies upon lies about trillions in non-performing loans…

.. coupled with growing risks from billions parked at China’s unregulated and unstable shadow banking system (best known recently for stories such as this one “Anxin Trust’s $7 Billion Investment Black Hole“)

While regular readers are all too familiar with the story, Bloomberg recaps quickly why it is so crucial for Beijing to preserve the illusions that Chinese savings are sacrosanct and why bank runs can never take hold:

For decades, deposit-taking has provided a stable and low-cost funding base for China’s financial market, playing a key part in the rise of its economy to the second largest in the world. Chinese households hold about 90 trillion yuan ($13 trillion) of bank deposits, more than anywhere else in the world. 

China’s increasingly shaky banking system has also been cited as one of the reasons why Beijing has been aggressively seeking to blow another stock market bubble in hopes it leads to fund flows away from bank savings accounts: after all, it’s politically safer and more palatable to store funds in capital markets rather than in banks, which are looking increasingly shaky by the day. Ultimately, if faced with a decision between another stock bubble-bust cycle, or a loss of confidence in its banks, Beijing will always pick the former.

In any case, regulators are now not only seeking to soothe nerves publicly, but are also raising the protection to preserve this cushion for banks. The run in Hebei came after authorities kicked off a pilot program to limit large transactions in the province. The two-year program, which Bloomberg explains is set to be expanded to Zhejiang and Shenzhen in October to encompass 70 million people, would require retail clients to pre-report any large withdrawals or deposits of 100,000 yuan ($14,000) to 300,000 yuan.

That could be problematic to say the least in a country whose own banking regulator, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, on Saturday again warned that lenders are facing a surge in bad debt as the economy sputters at its slowest pace in four decades.

While stopgap measures, which have included rolling over debt and delaying loan payments, have limited an immediate surge in bad debt, the regulator said the fundamental issues of poorly managed banks and the deteriorating ability of companies and individuals to repay loans are still far from solved. They are also asking banks to forgo 1.5 trillion yuan in profit this year by offering lower lending rates, cutting fees, deferring loan repayments, and granting more unsecured loans to small businesses to help the economy.

Alas for China’s regulators, they are facing an uphill battle: with authorities overseeing more than 3,000 banks, most of which are small, rural entities without ready access to capital, their job equates to whack-a-mole – the moment they stop one bank run, several new ones take its place. And so, in another unprecedented move, China now plans to allow local governments to use about 200 billion yuan from bond sales to help smaller banks replenish their capital.

It gets worse.

According to S&P, China’s industry may suffer a whopping 8 trillion yuan increase in bad debt this year. Even without this balance sheet “neutron bomb” small banks are facing a $349 billion shortfall in capital, according to UBS analysts, leading to even more small bank failures. Putting that figure at only $50 billion, the regulator said the shortfall could mean slower profit growth or even sliding profits at some institutions.

The result of all this, predictably, has been a collapse in confidence in Chinese banks and its logical next step: bank runs.

In the most recent episodes, authorities stepped in last month to halt banks runs at two local lenders in Hebei and Shanxi. On July 11, savers rushed to withdraw money from Hengshui Bank, also based in Hebei, before the police put a stop to it.

In response, the local offices of the People’s Bank of China and the CBIRC did what China does best: they scrambled to preserve confidence in the system, saying in a joint statement that Hengshui Bank and its branches are legitimate financial entities where any savings under half a million yuan are protected under China’s deposit insurance regulation. They also reassured depositors that their money is safe and urged them not to “blindly” withdraw savings.

In fact, they also urged them not to withdraw savings at all.

When that did not work, police took people into custody, issuing reprimands to those spreading rumors, according to the statement.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg adds, Hengshui Bank said in an emailed reply on Wednesday that the city government is actively dealing with the issue and called for less publicity for fear the incident leads to regional systemic risks.  In other words, China is now aggressively censoring any online media that discusses China’s questionably solvent banks.

Knowing this won’t work, regulators have been working on a plan since last year that would see more small banks merge to shore up their strength, but so far little of that effort has come to fruition.

“China has too many banks,” said Zhang. “Quite a few of them are weak in corporate governance and earnings capacity. A better option is to take a more proactive approach to restructuring those regional banks.” He is, of course, correct, however any restructuring would require taking a very risk first step of admitting banks have a big problem, and with China having swept up its bank problems under the rug for years, it is anybody’s guess how the world’s largest depositor base reacts on learning that its money resides in the world’s biggest house of cards.

END
CHINA VS USA
Trump weighing a travel ban on Chinese Communist Party Members.  That will not go over well with Xi
(zero hedge)

Trump Administration Weighing Travel Ban On Chinese Communist Party Members

Topping off a day of increasingly aggressive tit-for-tat escalations between the US and China, the NYT reported late on Wednesday that the Trump administration is considering an extensive travel ban to the United States by members of the Chinese Communist Party and their families, a move that would almost certainly prompt retaliation against Americans seeking to enter or remain in China and further exacerbate tensions between the two nations.

 

President Xi Jinping of China at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in May

Such a ban would be “the most provocative action against China by the United States since the start of the trade war between the two countries in 2018″ and would further deteriorate U.S.-China relations, which after several years of open clashes over economics, technology and global influence have devolved into a de facto new Cold War.

Additionally, the draft proclamation could revoke the visas of party members and their families who are already in the country, leading to their expulsion. The NYT further adds that some of the proposed language is also aimed at limiting travel to the United States by members of the People’s Liberation Army and executives at state-owned enterprises (even though many of them are likely to also be party members).

The presidential order would cite the same statute in the Immigration and Nationality Act used in a 2017 travel ban on a number of predominantly Muslim countries that gives the president power to temporarily block travel to the U.S. by foreign nationals who are deemed “detrimental to the interests of the United States.” The 2017 ban was fought in the courts and expanded this year.

Then again, this being the NYT, the whole report may well be fake news based on a non-existent (or conflicted NSA) source seeking to spark even more conflict in the already strained US-Sino relations, and the paper of records tacitly hints as much saying that “details of the plan have not yet been finalized, and President Trump might ultimately reject it.”

Assuming Trump is indeed considering such a ban, it wasn’t clear just how such a ban would be implemented: the Chinese Communist Party has 92 million members, and the U.S. government has no knowledge of party status for a vast majority of them. So trying to immediately identify party members to either prevent their entry or expel those already in the United States would be difficult. Meanwhile, almost three million Chinese citizens visited the United States in 2018.

Ironically, the report follows just hours after another anti-Trump outlet, Bloomberg, reported that the president “doesn’t want to further escalate tensions with Beijing, and has ruled out additional sanctions on top officials for now, according to people familiar with the matter.”

So which is it: no sanctions or sanction 92 million Chinese communists? It’s safe to say that the truth is somewhere in between.

END

Huge military exercises across the strait aimed directly at Taiwan. Tensons

escalate

Franklin/Gatestone

Chinese Military Exercises Threaten To Invade Taiwan

Authored by Lawrence Franklin via The Gatestone Institute,

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is currently staging a military exercise across from the Taiwan Strait that looks as if it plans to culminate in an amphibious assault on an island in the South China Sea. Taiwan’s military — evidently fearing, with good reason, that the exercise may be a cover for an actual Chinese plan to seize another island in the region, Pratas (Dongsha), claimed by both the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan — has declared a state of emergency. The PLA exercise also looks as if it is preparing China’s air, naval and marine assets required for an invasion of Taiwan.

In 1996, China initiated a similar crisis in the Taiwan Strait by staging an amphibious assault military exercise. After President Bill Clinton deployed two powerful US aircraft carrier-led battle groups, China discontinued its aggressive posture toward Taiwan. Strategic analysts judged that the Chinese decision was the fruit of a realistic assessment that it could not overcome the US ability to defend Taiwan.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), under current Chairman Xi Jinping, appears to be threatening war in a renewed effort to bring Taiwan under Communist Chinese control. The CCP considers Taiwan to be a Chinese province, an integral part of the mainland that ultimately must rejoin it, and the only remaining part of China yet to be returned after the Communists defeated the Nationalists in 1949. For China, it is unfinished business from 70 years ago. China has isolated Taiwan by requiring that all countries who want to have normal diplomatic ties with China must have no state-to-state links with Taiwan. Although the US consents to this diplomatic requirement, it also continues to provide Taiwan with weapon systems, enabling the island to defend itself against any Chinese invasion. US President Donald J. Trump recently authorized the latest sale of US weapons — including advanced heavy torpedoes — to Taiwan. Trump, earlier in his tenure, also approved the sale of anti-aircraft Stinger missiles, Abrams tanks, and F-16 fighter jets.

Many foreign specialists on China seem to discount the possibility that the Chinese are willing to risk war with the West to subdue Taiwan. Serious consideration should nevertheless be given to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) determination to incorporate the “secessionist” province despite the danger of a conflict, especially if China considers the US distracted by the fallout of the Wuhan coronavirus that China unleashed on the world, and American voter squeamishness before a presidential election in four months.

The CCP views Taiwan as an existential threat to continued Communist rule in China. Taiwan’s vibrant democracy is the alternate model to the CCP’s totalitarian rule. Despite China’s efforts to cut Taiwan off from the world, the country remains an economically successful and politically free society, less than 90 miles from the Chinese coast.

Millions of mainland Chinese have visited Taiwan, a practice which could stimulate pressure by Chinese citizens on the Communist regime for liberalizing political reforms. If China assesses that its growing military power could quickly reduce Taiwan’s ability to defend itself or that the West has lost the will to defend the island, CCP Chairman Xi might direct the PLA to launch an invasion.

China also doubtless took stock of the free world’s obliging passivity the past few weeks as Beijing seized Hong Kong. Not one country lifted a finger to stop them. The move was in explicit violation of China’s 1997 Joint Declaration with the United Kingdom to maintain “one country, two systems” until 2047.

In response to China’s threatening exercise, Major General Lin Wen-Huang, Chief of Taiwan’s Joint Operations, asserted that Taiwan’s military had plans and preparations in place. General Lin, perhaps fearing that the actual target of the PLA amphibious assault is the Taiwan-occupied island of Pratas (Dongsha), 548 kilometers southwest of Taiwan, reinforced the island’s small Coast Guard contingent with hundreds of Taiwanese Marines from the 99th Brigade.

Taiwan’s armed forces maintain close communication with the US military. In a “cross-strait” confrontation between Taiwan and China, American air and naval assets would be granted complete access to Taiwanese airfields and ports. The Trump Administration, signaling China not to assume dominance in the South and East China Seas, has conducted seven such “Freedom of Navigation” missions through the Taiwan Strait in 2020, and the US Navy has already deployed three aircraft carrier battle groups in the South China Sea.

China’s Communist leaders should not miscalculate that the US is too immersed in domestic distractions to defend Taiwan militarily against any possible plans to threaten the island’s sovereignty.

END

 

USA using Wake Islands in an airfield expansion.  It is just outside of Chinese missile reach

(zerohedge)

Satellite Images Show US Airfield Expansion At Secretive Island Outpost Just Outside Chinese Missile Reach

Considered one of the most strategically important unincorporated US island outposts in the world, Wake Island is also among the most restricted territories claimed by the US (also claimed by the Marshall Islands), given it remains a key American military outpost located about halfway between Hawaii and Japan.

It has historically served as a vital staging ground for US aircraft operating in the Western Pacific and as a remote line of defense, and is more recently witnessing military build-up as part of the US Navy’s “pivot toward the Pacific” — especially given rising US-China tensions and the controversial presence of two US supercarriers in the disputed South China Sea.

 

US fighters over the remote Wake Island.

Fresh satellite imagery republished by The Drive shows significant expansion to facilities, including to the airfield, which has a nearly 10,000 foot runway. Military publications have previously note that  “Wake is the only 10,000-foot runway for a 4,000-mile stretch of Pacific Ocean.”

The report details that images “The War Zone obtained from Planet Labs dated June 25th, 2020 shows that substantial improvements to the base have occurred recently. Based on archival satellite imagery, the major expansions to the airfield began early this year and are still underway today.”

 

Planet Labs satellite imagery marked by The Drive showing areas where the airfield has undergone expansion or improvement. 

Advanced American bombers routinely land and operate from Wake Island, supporting operations in the South Pacific.

“Beyond its clear logistical utility, acting as a major hub where there isn’t another for thousands of miles, it sits outside the range of China’s and North Korea’s medium-range ballistic missiles, and largely at the end, if not entirely out of range, of their intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs),” a separate report noted.

“Guam, which is situated about 1,500 miles further west, is well within the range of these weapons.”

But Wake Island would be out of reach in any rapid conflict with either China or North Korea, which would target nearer bases up to and including Guam with long-range cruise missiles.

Thus Wake Island would be considered a first line fall-back position in any hot war with major US enemies in Asia. Conscious of this, it appears the Pentagon is busy rapidly improving the remote atoll.

END
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/HONG KONG/USA/GLOBE

Hong Kong Suffers 3rd Record Jump In New COVID-19 Cases As Global Total Tops 13.5 Million: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Global cases top 13.5 mil
  • HK reports 63 new cases for 3rd record in a week
  • US reports 65k+ cases; 2nd highest daily tally
  • Indonesia orders social distancing violators punished
  • Tokyo suffers record jump
  • Victoria reports more than 300 new cases Thursday
  • ICU deaths moving lower around the world
  • Texas reports daily record yesterday

* * *

Days after adopting its more restrictive measures to combat COVID-19 yet, Hong Kong has reported a record single-day jump in newly confirmed cases, its third record-setting tally in a week.

A record 63 local cases were reported on Thursday. Of these, 35 were of unknown origin, according to the city’s health department. The city-state’s new outbreak has infected 300+ people under two weeks, with more than a third of infections bearing no discernible connections to preexisting outbreaks.

Meanwhile, in the US, as the nationwide death toll topped 140k, the number of new cases reported yesterday (remember these numbers come with a 24-hour delay) was the second-highest yet, coming in at more than 65k.

Yesterday, both Texas and California reported new single-day records, which certainly helped drive the total higher.

As another wave of infections sweeps across southeast Asia, Indonesia is planning to fine violators of social distancing rules under a new law as President Joko Widodo scrambles to contain an outbreak that his government once deliberately tried to ignore and dismiss as nonexistent, despite the threat posed to his people.

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, Tokyo also reported another daily record of 286 new coronavirus cases as Japanese grow concerned about the outbreak in the capital, which is now under level 4 COVID-19 alert, the highest possible. The government is now trying to discourage travel and commuting, scrapping a campaign to promote domestic tourism. While the city’s latest cluster was traced to nightclubs, officials believe it has now traveled much further.

Meanwhile, Australia’s second-most-populous state, Victoria, also recorded 317 new cases, its biggest spike yet too, as the state struggles to clamp down on a sudden reemergence of infections that has threatened to spread across all of Australia. The jump comes one week after Melbourne and some of the surrounding area entered a new partial lockdown.

The 7-day average of COVID-19 deaths in the US as ticked higher to levels not seen in 2 weeks as the pattern appears to plateau. The US reported roughly 1,000 deaths on Thursday.

Globally, the US reported another 230k+ new cases, and just under 5k deaths, driving the global case total north of 13.5 million (exact total: 13,727,388 per Worldometer).

But while the numbers on the chart appear to show a slight tick higher, the deluge of MSM warnings that the death lag is very, very real have seemed almost unhinged in their authors’ refusal to acknowledge several factors – including lower median age of those infected and more effective treatment strategies – that might constrain deaths from returning to their highs from the NYC peak. Or 3,000 deaths a day, as the NYT once predicted.

However, the latest data out of Bloomberg shows that overall mortality continues to decline. Overall ICU deaths have fallen to just under 42% at the end of May from almost 60% in March, according to the first systematic analysis of two dozen studies involving more than 10,000 patients spanning three continents. Such news is fortunate given the “unprecedented demand” that the virus has imposed on these services.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

As we have pointed out to you on several occasions: antibodies do not stay long which will make a vaccine moot

(zerohedge)

Bad News For Moderna: More Evidence Shows COVID-19 Antibodies Disappear Not Long After Infection

Following trial results released yesterday showing Moderna’s vaccine candidate might not be safe for human consumption – apparently, the candidate caused “adverse” reactions in roughly 50% of patients who participated in a recent study – the dozens of companies, universities and governments working on COVID-19 vaccine candidates just received another piece of disheartening news: A growing body of evidence gleaned from research into the virus suggests that antibodies may not offer protection for more than 2-3 months, for many people.

Now, a study produced by researchers at King’s College London is showing recovered patients antibodies declined significantly within months of infection, raising the critical question of whether a vaccine could ever provide lasting protection. Moderna’s vaccine candidate has shown the capacity to produce antibodies in test subjects, but it’s still unclear exactly how much protection this might provide.

University of Nottingham Emeritus Professor in Immunology Herb Sewell, who consulted on the study, said it appeared to show that antibodies to the virus disappeared more quickly than antibodies for MERS and other coronaviruses. Viruses like SARS elicited an immune response that lasted at least a couple of years.

This suggests that the eventual COVID-19 vaccine might need to be administered every year to offer a reliable level of protection.

“If the vaccine response drops off like the natural response does, it does mean we’d have to give repeat ones,” he said.

But that’s not set in stone – at least, not yet. As the FT points out, seeing some degree in decline of efficacy is typically expected. That doesn’t mean the body won’t be able to reproduce those same antibodies even more quickly the next time it is infected.

Researchers also apparently found evidence showing a link between the intensity of symptoms and the durability of antibodies. The lighter the symptoms, the lower the level of apparent immunity.

It is normal to see some decline in antibody loads after a vaccine, which will still be effective if the body can subsequently produce antibodies more quickly when exposed to the virus again. Importantly, the body does not always respond in the same way to a vaccine as it does to an infection. Tal Zaks, chief medical officer at Moderna, said he believed it was “entirely plausible” that the antibodies fade, but that it might be because those patients were asymptomatic or started with lower levels of antibodies.

“They seem to lose them more quickly, which probably speaks to the quality and type of immune response to begin with,” he said. “It’s reassuring to see that we achieve neutralising antibodies that are consistently above what you see from people who’ve actually been sick, so we expect they are going to be protected.”

Several high profile studies have raised doubts about whether these antibodies are permanent, or effective, or not. But only large-scale clinical trials will eventually lead humanity to the truth, even as local officials rely on antibody detection tests of questionable quality to try to estimate the number of people in an area who contracted the virus.

Only large-scale clinical trials will eventually lead humanity to the truth.

“Confirmation of the correlation between antibody titers [concentration] and protection against Covid-19 will be possible only in a large clinical efficacy study,” she wrote in an opinion article that accompanied the publication of the peer-reviewed data on Moderna’s vaccine candidate.

And as scientists try to leave all their options open, some of the vaccines in development are examining the body’s T-cell response to the infection, something researchers suspect could help hold the key to developing a successful vaccine.

Mr Raffat said he had heard AstraZeneca would show a robust response from both T-cells and antibodies to the vaccine it is developing with the University of Oxford. AstraZeneca did not respond to a request for comment. On the call with investors on Wednesday, Mr Raffat said: “If I want to take a vaccine in January, I’ll probably want to take Astra for a T-cell response and Moderna or Pfizer BioNTech for a neutralising antibody response.”

If stocks keep moving lower, we imagine we’ll be seeing some more positive-sounding vaccine news in the very near future.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1433 UP .0018 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//PANDEMIC/CORONAVIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.08 DOWN 0.177 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2589   DOWN   0.0011  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3516 UP .0009 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 18 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1433 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 151.21 POINTS OR 4.50% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 510.89 POINTS OR 2.00%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,61%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 510.89 POINTS OR 2.00%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 151,21 POINTS OR 4.50%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 61% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 175.14  POINTS OR 0.76%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1806.00

silver:$19.31-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.60% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.30 DOWN 4  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 95.99 DOWN 9 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.42% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +02%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.40%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,18 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 78 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.46% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.64% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1417  DOWN     .0003 or 3 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.14 UP .234 OR YEN DOWN 23  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2594 UP .0004 POUND UP 4  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 28 basis points to 1.3535

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9893    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9893  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.860 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 0.61 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.30 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.03 DOWN 5  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 41.96  0.67%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 56.01 POINTS OR .43%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 23.79 POINTS 0.46%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 12.90 POINTS or 0.17%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 74.71 POINTS OR 0.37%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.92 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 61.83 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    63.05  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  40.72//

 

 

BRENT :  43.27

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.62…down one basis point

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.31..down 3 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1379 ( DOWN 38   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.34 up .442 (YEN DOWN 44 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.32 UP 24 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2546 DOWN 45  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.86

 

 

the Russian rouble 71. 54  DOWN 0.61 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 61 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3573 DOWN 65 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.44%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 135.39 POINTS OR 0.50%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 76.66 POINTS OR 0.73%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  27.56 CLOSED DOWN .20

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.272%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bonds Bid, Stocks Skid, As Banks & Big-Tech Breakdown

Better than expected Chinese GDP (but weak retail sales) and better than expected US retail sales? What’s not to love? Well the “good news is bad news” market is back as investors start getting anxious that this ‘V’ rebound is prematurely reassuring (July 31st – handouts end) central planners that they have done enough…

Chinese stocks tanked overnight…

And US stocks shocked the world with a red close (Nasdaq and Small Caps underperformed)…

 

Though all the US majors remain higher in July…

 

And so for all that good news… you get nothing!

The Nasdaq has underperformed the S&P for 5 days in a row (the biggest 5-day underperformance in 3 months), erasing all of the Nasdaq’s outperformance in July…

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, Bloomberg notes that through today, this week has seen the Nasdaq 100 Index lagging the S&P 500 by the most since May 2009…

Banks remain very mixed on the week, mostly lower today…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG Stocks slipped lower and MAGA stocks have now lost almost $200 bn in market cap this week.

Momentum and Value have reversed the early month moves this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all lower on the day (around 2bps), and are now all lower on the week with the belly outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

As yields fell, 30Y mortgage rates hit a record low at 2.98%…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, as Bloomberg details, global borrowing costs for investment-grade companies have reached a record low as central-bank stimulus efforts more than offset concerns about the coronavirus. Bond yields tumbled to 1.73% after peaking at an eight-year-high 3.69% during the worst of the virus upheavals in March, according to an almost two-decade-old Bloomberg Barclays index. Yields on dollar notes, which make up two-thirds of the index, are at the lowest since at least 1973, following Federal Reserve support.

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was bid today (as JPY weakened), almost back to unch on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

USDJPY spiked higher today (JPY weaker) for no good reason whatsoever (cough BoJ cough)…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were hit overnight as Asia went to bed…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all lower on the day as the dollar rallied, but silver leads on the week…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Gold futs fell back below $1800…

 

WTI fell back below $41…

 

 

Finally, as cases continue to soar (7-day average), COVID deaths have ‘stabilized’ (7-day average) stalling their improving trend…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields continue to languish near record lows as stocks begin (albeit very slowly and unremarkably) to stall…

 

Source: Bloomberg

As the link between Cyclicals and yields breaks entirely…

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

1.3 million more Americans have filed for first time jobless benefits: total now over 50 million

Over 50 Million Americans Have Now Filed For First-Time Jobless Benefits Since Lockdowns Began

Despite the hope-restoring nonfarm payrolls “recovery” and the over-hyped bounce in ‘soft’ sentiment surveys (which are biased by their nature as diffusion indices to bounce back hard), for the seventeenth week in a row, over 1 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time (1.30mm was slightly worse than the 1.25mm expected).

Source: Bloomberg

That brings the seventeen-week total to 51.275 million, dramatically more than at any period in American history. However, as the chart above shows, the second derivative is slowing down drastically (even though the 1.30 million rise this last week is still higher than any other week in history outside of the pandemic)

Continuing Claims did drop very modestly but hardly a signal that “re-opening” is accelerating! And definitely not confirming the payrolls or sentiment data…

Source: Bloomberg

Broken down by state, it is perhaps not surprising that Florida which has seen a surge in new covid cases also had the biggest increase in initial claims, which rose by over 62K in the last week, more than double the 2nd biggest increase which was seen in Georgia. That said, a surge in covid cases does not explain why Texas, which has also seen a sharp increase in new cases, was the state with the 2nd biggest claims decline.

And as we noted previously, what is most disturbing is that in the last seventeen weeks, far more than twice as many Americans have filed for unemployment than jobs gained during the last decade since the end of the Great Recession… (22.13 million gained in a decade, 51.275 million lost in 17 weeks)

Worse still, the final numbers will likely be worsened due to the bailout itself (and its fiscal cliff): as a reminder, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, passed on March 27, could contribute to new records being reached in coming weeks as it increases eligibility for jobless claims to self-employed and gig workers, extends the maximum number of weeks that one can receive benefits, and provides an additional $600 per week until July 31.

Was it worth it?

The big question remains – what happens when the $600 CARES Act bonuses stop flowing?

END

V shaped recovery in retail sales.  What happens when the 600 dollar cheque to everyone stops.

(zerohedge)

US Retail Sales Soar In June Led By Clothing Demand

Following a disappointing contraction in Chinese retail sales overnight, US Retail Sales growth in June was expected to slow from its massive rebound spike in May and it did but still notably beat expectations (rising 7.5% MoM vs +5.0% MoM exp).

Source: Bloomberg

Everything was higher in retail sales with a 105% MoM spike in Clothing, except:

  • Building materials and garden supplies -0.3%
  • Food and beverage stores -1.2%
  • Nonstore retailers -2.4%

This is the biggest drop in non-store retail sales (online) since Dec 2018’s collapse…

The “V” in Retail Sales is almost complete…

Source: Bloomberg

On a YoY basis, both the headline and GDP-driver Control Group are back into positive territory…

Source: Bloomberg

The big question remains however, what happens to US consumption when the CARES Act handouts stop in two weeks?

END

Philly Fed manufacturing index retreats to 24.1 in July from prior month’s 27.5

July 16, 2020 at 8:32 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index pulled back to 24.1 in July after registering a reading of 27.5 in June. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the gauge to decline to 18.1. Any reading above zero indicates improving conditions. U.S. manufacturing was hit hard starting in March by lockdowns imposed to fight the coronavirus pandemic, but activity has been ramping up in recent months. The Empire State factory index rose to 17.2 in July from a negative reading in the prior month.

-END-

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Twitter hacked

(zerohedge)

 

Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos And Others Hacked In Unprecedented Twitter Attack And Bitcoin Scam; Over $100,000 Stolen In Minutes

Summary:

  • A massive hack which allegedly has originated at a Twitter employee with access to the user management panel was, has affected hundreds of billionaires and politicians, including Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Bil Gates, Kanye West, Elon Musk, Wiz Khalifa, Apple, Uber, Jeff Bezos, Benjamin Netanyahu
  • Tweets urged people to send money to a Bitcoin address; Over $113,000 has been sent so far
  • Twitter: “We are investigating and taking steps to fix it”
  • Twitter said it has blocked verified account users from sending tweets or resetting their passwords while it investigates an apparent hack that saw prominent users tweet out an address linked to a Bitcoin scam.

Twitter may or may not be on it… or it could be just the hackers tweeting some more:

END

NYC Residential Sales Tumble 25% As COVID-19 Chaos Strikes In H1

NYC is slowly emerging from its COVID-19-induced shock, and as politicians clash over what NYC’s classrooms will look like next fall (or whether they will reopen at all), thousands of New Yorkers are trying to ditch their city digs and move on out to the suburbs.

Various real estate brokers and market analysts compile data on all aspects of the NYC real estate market. And a recently released survey by Property Shark found that, YoY, sales volume in the city declined by 25%.

But the details of the report are more interesting. As one might expect given its cosmopolitan reputation, Manhattan was the hardest hit of all 5 boroughs. Queens saw its median sales price climb by 10%, while Brooklyn sales activity saw the smallest contraction.

As more signs of life begin to emerge, here’s the rest of the report, courtesy of PropertyShark.

With NYC now in Phase Three of reopening and the rest of the state in Phase Four, the residential market’s performance is of heightened interest, after a tumultuous first half of the year.

The year started off promising increased sales activity, only for projections and expectations to be shattered by the uncertainty and upheaval of March, followed by an April marked by historical lows in sales activity and the strongest pricing trends of 2020 by that point.

As the curve flattened and the general public started becoming accustomed to the new normal, the state started slowly reopening and brought a tentative return of transactional activity in May. June, however, presented a whole new picture with strengthening sales trends and the first significant year-over-year price drop, despite recording the highest median sale price this year at $717,733.

Transactional activity, of course, has trended negative since the start of the crisis. Marched kicked off with sales activity in its first week 15% higher than the same period last year, only to see it drop 36% year-over-year by the end of the month.  Sales activity bottomed out in April at 61% below April 2019, with a mere 1,549 deals recorded in the four boroughs in the entire month.

May, however, brought a tentative return of transactional activity, with a total of 1,337 sales recorded. While that figure may have been lower than April’s 1,549 deals, year-over-year, May marked a 52% drop in sales activity, as opposed to April’s 61%. June saw sales trends strengthen further, with its monthly sales activity the highest since the start of the crisis in March, coming in just 41% lower year-over-year.

It must be noted that June 2020 figures are skewed beyond the pandemic’s effects, since sales activity and the median sale price surged artificially in June 2019 as NYC buyers and sellers rushed to close deals before the new mansion tax went into effect in July 2019. All in all, 1,670 residential sales were recorded between June 1 and June 28, 2020. Of this, 476 were recorded in the third week of the month, marking the strongest week of sales since late March.

Overall, May 2020 kept up with that trend too, with the exception of one week, which came in a -3% year-over-year. Despite that, May closed with a median sale price of $705,000, marking a 4% gain over May 2019. Additionally, this also made May the second-most expensive month in NYC up to that point, surpassed only by April’s $712,000 median.

June kicked off with the strongest pricing trends so far this year, posting a median sale price of $743,000, surpassing May figures. That represented a 2% gain over year-ago figures, a notable achievement considering June 2019 featured the strongest pricing trends of H1 2019. The rest of the month however, consistently posted weekly median sale prices lower than their year-ago correspondents – again due to the artificially strengthened pricing trends of 2019.

* * * *

Source: PropertyShark.com

END

Mortgage delinquencies suddenly soar at a record pace

Wolf Richter/WolfStreet

It Starts: Mortgage Delinquencies Suddenly Soar At Record Pace

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

OK, it’s actually worse.

Mortgages that are in forbearance and have not missed a payment before going into forbearance don’t count as delinquent.

They’re reported as “current.” And 8.2% of all mortgages in the US – or 4.1 million loans – are currently in forbearance, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. But if they did not miss a payment before entering forbearance, they don’t count in the suddenly spiking delinquency data.

The onslaught of delinquencies came suddenly in April, according to CoreLogic, a property data and analytics company (owner of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index), which released its monthly Loan Performance Insights today. And it came after 27 months in a row of declining delinquency rates. These delinquency rates move in stages – and the early stages are now getting hit:

Transition from “Current” to 30-days past due: In April, the share of all mortgages that were past due, but less than 30 days, soared to 3.4% of all mortgages, the highest in the data going back to 1999. This was up from 0.7% in April last year. During the Housing Bust, this rate peaked in November 2008 at 2% (chart via CoreLogic):

From 30 to 59 days past due: The rate of these early delinquencies soared to 4.2% of all mortgages, the highest in the data going back to 1999. This was up from 1.7% in April last year.

From 60 to 89 days past due: As of April, this stage had not yet been impacted, with the rate remaining relatively low at 0.7% (up from 0.6% in April last year). This stage will jump in the report to be released a month from now when today’s 30-to-59-day delinquencies, that haven’t been cured by then, move into this stage.

Serious delinquencies, 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure: As of April, this stage had not been impacted, and the rate ticked down to 1.2% (from 1.3% in April a year ago). We should see the rate rise in two months and further out.

Overall delinquency rate, 30-plus days, jumped to 6.1%, up from 3.6% in April last year. This was the highest overall delinquency rate since January 2016 (on the way down).

These delinquency rates are the first real impact seen on the housing market by the worst employment crisis in a lifetime, with over 32 million people claiming state or federal unemployment benefits. There is no way – despite rumors to the contrary – that a housing market sails unscathed through that kind of employment crisis.

Delinquency Hotspots:

The overall delinquency rate rose in every state. But there were some real hotspots, in terms of the percentage-point increase in the delinquency rate in April, compared to April a year ago:

  • New York: +4.7 percentage points
  • New Jersey: +4.6 percentage points
  • Nevada: +4.5 percentage points
  • Florida: +4.0 percentage points
  • Hawaii: +3.7 percentage points.

The worst hit metros are tourism destinations and New York City where the most devastating and deadliest outbreak of the Pandemic in the US occurred. These are massive increases in the delinquency rates in April:

  • Miami, FL: +6.7 percentage points
  • Kahului, HI: +6.2 percentage points
  • New York, NY: +5.5 percentage points
  • Atlantic City, NJ: +5.4 percentage points
  • Las Vegas, NV: +5.3 percentage points.

“With home prices expected to drop 6.6% by May 2021, thus depleting home equity buffers for borrowers, we can expect to see an increase in later-stage delinquency and foreclosure rates in the coming months,” CoreLogic said in the report.

With over 8% of the mortgages now being in forbearance, there is a lot of uncertainty about them as well – how many of them can exit forbearance or the extension and return to regular payments, and how many of them end up exiting forbearance and becoming delinquent.

CoreLogic expects to see “a rise in delinquencies in the next 12-18 months – especially as forbearance periods under the CARES Act come to a close,” the report said. To what extent the delinquencies deteriorate further depends largely on the labor market, and on unemployment, and that remains a horrible mess at the moment.

*  *  *

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END

Mortgage rates plunge and that gives homebuilder optimism

(zerohedge)

Homebuilder Optimism Explodes Higher As Mortgage Rates Plunge To Record Lows

US Homebuilders’ Confidence index soared higher in July (to 72 from 58 last month), back to March (pre-COVID) levels.

  • Measure of present single family sales rises to 79 vs 63 last month
  • Future single family sales gauge rises to 75 vs 68 last month
  • Prospective buyers traffic measure rises to 58 vs 43 last month

“New home demand is improving in lower density markets, including small metro areas, rural markets and large metro exurbs, as people seek out larger homes and anticipate more flexibility for telework in the years ahead,” Robert Dietz, NAHB chief economist, said in a statement.

“Flight to the suburbs is real.”

At the same time, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 2.98%, mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac said Thursday, its lowest level in almost 50 years of record keeping. It is the third consecutive week and the seventh time this year that rates on America’s most popular home loan have hit a fresh low.

Below 3% is a “tremendous benchmark,” said Jeff Tucker, an economist at Zillow Group Inc.

“It’s also an indication that we remain in a crisis here.”

But, the relative spread over Treasuries remains dramatic to say the least…

 

There’s just one thing, while homebuilders are almost at euphoric levels, homebuyers aren’t so convinced…

Source: Bloomberg

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Solomon: As Obama Marched Toward Iran Nuclear Deal, FBI Worried Russia Was Aiding Tehran’s Program

Authored by John Solomon via JustTheNews.com,

As President Obama aggressively pursued a nuclear deal with Iran, the FBI used an  operative who worked undercover for years inside Vladimir Putin’s nuclear empire to investigate and raise alarm that Russia was aiding Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

The undercover work on Iran by William Douglas Campbell was overshadowed by his effort to help the FBI successfully prove that an executive at Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy company, was engaged in kickbacks, bribery and other crimes on U.S. soil and had compromised a U.S. uranium trucking company.

Campbell’s harrowing work posing as a consultant while informing for the FBI inside Rosatom’s Tenex subsidiary from 2007 to 2014 led to the successful prosecution of several players in the kickback scheme, including Russia’s top American nuclear executive, Vadim Mikerin.

The FBI warned the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and other major federal agencies in August 2010 that Campbell had uncovered significant evidence of wrongdoing inside Rosatom’s Tenex agency. But the Obama administration nonetheless proceeded to approve billions of dollars in nuclear fuel contracts and Moscow’s purchase of a large swath of U.S. uranium through a company known as Uranium One.

But Campbell’s efforts to uncover the nuclear alliance between Tehran and Moscow raised similar concerns inside the FBI and are chronicled in the new book Fallout: Nuclear Bribes, Russian Spies and the Washington Lies that Enriched the Clinton and Biden Dynasties.

Agents actually pressed Campbell so hard to get more intelligence on Iran from his Russian contacts that it ultimately blew his cover, the books reveals.

Campbell began providing evidence of the Russia-Iran nexus starting in 2010, including a memo he intercepted inside Rosatom written by an American adviser, Cheryl Moss Herman, who later would go to work in a senior nuclear energy policy job inside the Obama Energy Department.

Herman’s 11-page report, titled “Policy/Legislative Issues Affecting the Business Climate in the U.S. for TENAM/Tenex,” warned there was a growing concern inside Congress that Russia’s determined march into new U.S. uranium business conflicted with Western intelligence that Moscow was still aiding Iran’s illicit nuclear program.

“There are some in Congress who believe that Russia is providing Iran with sensitive nuclear technology as well as the nuclear know-how that will allow it to proliferate a nuclear weapons program, despite Russian Government statements to the contrary,” the report told the Russians.

The FBI had similar concerns. Here are excerpts from the books that reveal just how extensive those concerns were.

In one debriefing, for instance, Campbell related to his handling agents that Mikerin had identified a specific Russian company that was facilitating business between Iran and Tenex.

“As I have mentioned previously they do all the uranium business between Russia and Iran,” Campbell wrote of the intermediary. “Vadim is involved in the process under the same kind of payment network between Iran and the special TENEX group.

“I have asked him if he visits Tehran and he indicates he will not go because he feels it will cause trouble both for [U.S.] relations as well as his US travel.”

Such intelligence was intriguing for FBI counterintelligence, especially as the Obama administration secretly began discussions with Tehran aimed at reaching a deal to delay Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

In 2010, Campbell had obtained from his Russian sources a nonpublic report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN watchdog that was bird-dogging Iran’s illicit nuclear weapons program. The public version of the May 2010 report identified current enrichment-related activities inside Iran, including evidence that UN inspectors gathered related to a uranium enrichment plant in Natanz.

While U.S. officials likely already knew the contents of the report, Campbell’s acquisition had provided valuable insight: an IAEA report marked “restricted” for limited distribution had fallen into the hands of Rosatom’s leadership quickly. The long arm of Putin’s nuclear team knew few bounds.

Campbell continued to provide fragmentary intelligence on the Moscow-Tehran nuclear dealings, including additional IAEA reports that the Russians had obtained.

But in early 2012, a harbinger arrived that the bureau was preparing to pull out its operative and finally close the counterintelligence gathering part of the probe and transition to criminal prosecutions.

Special Agent [Timothy] Taylor contacted Campbell with the most specific instruction the team had ever given him over the years: a detailed list of 15 questions that the bureau wanted asked of Mikerin.

The questions were transmitted via the secret Sigma email accounts that the bureau had set up with Campbell. All were about Iran:

  • Is Iran seeking to create a weapon, either through obvious means, or through the design of their nuclear program?
  • Are there any other countries, other than Russia, partnering to help Iran’s nuclear program?
  • If there are other countries participating, what model for security and nuclear power generation is Iran following?
  • What security measures has Iran put in place at nuclear facilities to prevent the computer failures, the failure of automated systems, or a computer virus?
  • What political issues are of concern to Russia if they are to continue to support the Iranian nuclear program?
  • If Iran is seeking to enrich uranium to HEU, what is the timeframe in which they expect to achieve that level?
  • How many Russian employees are currently working on Iranian projects?
  • How many Iranian scientists are currently working on nuclear energy projects? Who are they? What are their specialties?
  • What is the megawatt capacity of Bushehr?
  • What are the long-term goals for the facility?
  • Are there other facilities currently enriching uranium?
  • Have there been requests for assistance or indications of interest in new facilities?
  • How may centrifuges are currently operating at Bushehr?
  • What are the safety standards to which Iranian nuclear facilities are built? IAEA standards?
  • How is Iran prepared to ensure force protection and answer international security concerns? · Are there concealed or restricted areas at Iranian nuclear facilities where Russians are not allowed to visit? Where are they, and what do the Russians feel is going on there?
  • Are there temporary storage facilities where nuclear materials are stored? How are they secured?
  • How is new and used nuclear material moved and stored, and by whom?

When Campbell got this list, he joked that the FBI was signing his death warrant. The questions were too specific, the kind only an American spy might ask. Campbell had already been threatened by the Russians with polonium poisoning to ensure that he would not betray their criminal network.

The FBI, however, would not back off, insisting that Campbell press ahead and corner Mikerin with the Iran questions. The agents even coached him on how he could put his Russian friend at ease while unloading this barrage of inquiries.

“As discussed: You spoke with contacts who understand US policy. After the conversations you wrote down notes and have some ideas. You believe that Russia, Rosatom and Tenex could improve working relations with the US by being transparent about activities in Iran. You believe that it would be easier for Tenex to do business in the US if the US knows that Rosatom and Tenex have their fingers on the pulse of what is going on in Iran and can ensure that the nuclear energy is being produced responsibly and safely,” the agents wrote Campbell in their instructions.

It might have sounded good to the agents, but after 30 years in the business of spying, Campbell knew that these questions would blow his cover, or at the very least break the bond of trust that he had built with his Russian targets.

Campbell was right.

Mikerin refused to provide much in terms of answers, and soon backed away from his longtime Sigma consultant.

Campbell’s work for Tenex dwindled, and his access to Rosatom diminished.

 

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

BOJ Sits Tight on Policy, Offers More Clarity on Projections

The Bank of Japan left its monetary stimulus untouched Wednesday, while painting a gloomier picture of the economy this year as it signaled it doesn’t see a quick recovery from the pandemic.

    The BOJ kept its short-term interest rate at -0.1%, its 10-year yield target around zero and left its asset purchases unchanged… The board said it sees the economy shrinking 4.7% in the 12 months through March 2021. In April, it saw a contraction of somewhere between 3% and 5%…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/boj-sits-tight-on-policy-adds-more-clarity-to-projections

Moderna COVID-19 vaccine induced adverse reactions in ‘more than half’ of trial participants

One-fifth of participants in one test group reported ‘one or more severe adverse events.’

https://justthenews.com/nation/science/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-induced-adverse-reactions-more-half-trial-participants

Food Inflation Arrives, Adding to the Woes of Ailing Restaurants – Full-service restaurant prices rose a record 0.9% in June from a month earlier. At the same time, home cooking grew costlier: Grocery prices rose 0.7% from the prior month and 5.6% from a year ago, the largest increase since 2011…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/food-inflation-arrives-adding-to-the-woes-of-ailing-restaurants

Shadow Bank Weaknesses Forced Fed’s Market Rescue, Quarles Says [Socialize losses, not gains]

Nonbank perils triggered virus intervention in March, he says

We may be seeing significant pricing disconnects between the market and economic fundamentals, which could result in sudden and sharp repricing… The impacts of these economic strains may be amplified in emerging markets, given the risks to their currency and debt markets from capital outflows.”… The FSB expects to conclude a review of the March turbulence by November, Quarles said. As international regulators get a better sense of the vulnerabilities, it’ll help them decide “where policy responses may be needed,” he said. [The financial terrorism card successfully played, again]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/shadow-bank-weaknesses-forced-fed-s-market-rescue-quarles-says

Widespread Twitter Hack Reaches Bill Gates, Kanye West, Elon Musk, Joe Biden and Barack Obama – Personal accounts of famous users… steer followers to send money  https://www.wsj.com/articles/twitter-accounts-of-bill-gates-jeff-bezos-elon-musk-appear-to-have-been-hacked-11594849077

American Airlines warns 25,000 employees about potential job cuts as coronavirus continues to sap demandhttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/coronavirus-prompts-american-airlines-to-warn-25000-employees-on-potential-job-cuts.html

Trade adviser Peter Navarro tears into Fauci in blistering op-ed: ‘Wrong about everything’

White House official says Navarro is ‘going rogue’

    “Dr. Anthony Fauci has a good bedside manner with the public, but he has been wrong about everything I have interacted with him on…When I warned in late January in a memo of a possibly deadly pandemic, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases was telling our news media not to worry.” Further, he wrote that in February, “Fauci was telling the public the China virus was low risk.” Navarro went on to complain Fauci was “flip-flopping on the use of masks.”…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trade-adviser-peter-navarro-tears-into-fauci-in-blistering-op-ed-wrong-about-everything

The politicization of Covid-19 keeps generating new highs in deceit, fraud and fear mongering.

@EmeraldRobinson: The biggest story in America today: more than 300 COVID testing labs in Florida reported 100% rates. Every person they tested was reported as positive. Upon investigation, the actual positive cases were 10x lower. How many other states have been reporting fake numbers?

@nedryun: Nearly 3 dozen Florida labs were caught cooking the books re coronavirus cases by a factor of 10x and you want me to just blindly accept numbers being reported??

@IngrahamAngle: Turns out Florida labs can’t be trusted to report the true Covid case numbers. A top Florida physician revealed the true picturehttps://t.co/yWH5CP5hsv

@1776Stonewall: The Texas Department of Health finds that Covid-19 is less deadly than the last 2 flu seasons. Just a 0.01% mortality rate. As a matter of fact the flu was 4 times more deadly in the state of Texas.  So about 22,000 deaths in last 2 flu season in Texas. 3,000 covid-19.

https://twitter.com/1776Stonewall/status/1283230462333288448

@CodyFulks: Kansas governor shuts down schools till after Labor Day says it’s because counties ignored her mask mandate. We have 299 deaths since March; 2.9 million people; median age is 79

Philly mayor’s ban on large events ‘does not apply’ to protests or ‘demonstrations’

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/philly-mayors-ban-large-events-does-not-apply-protests-or

@realDonaldTrump: I am pleased to announce that Bill Stepien has been promoted to the role of Trump Campaign Manager. Brad Parscale, who has been with me for a very long time and has led our tremendous digital and data strategies, will remain in that role, while being a Senior Advisor to the campaign. Both were heavily involved in our historic 2016 win, and I look forward to having a big and very important second win together. This one should be a lot easier as our poll numbers are rising fast, the economy is getting better, vaccines and therapeutics will soon be on the way, and Americans want safe streets and communities!

@TrumpWarRoom: Joe Biden’s handlers repeatedly cut off an interviewer’s [local TV] questions after Biden botches basic facts. https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1283450170718519297

Once again, polls greatly understated a Trump-related candidate’s support.

Tuberville defeats Sessions in Alabama GOP [Senate] primary runoff – Polls showed the Sessions-Tuberville race deadlocked, with the candidates separated by less than 2 percentage points…

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/senate-primary-between-jeff-sessions-and-former-football-coach-tommy-tuberville

A survey conducted on behalf of the Sessions campaign shows the former U.S. Attorney General trailing the former Auburn football coach 43% to 49%… among likely Republican voters. [8% undecided} https://www.wbrc.com/2020/06/10/new-poll-shows-sessions-closing-gap-with-tuberville/

Tuberville won by 21.5 points.  ‘Experts’ says ‘undecided voters’ broke for Tuberville.  If true, these are mostly the voters that are silent about their support for Trump.

https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/2020/07/14/tommy-tuberville-defeats-jeff-sessions-alabama-gop-senate-runoff-results/5429365002/

Co-Founder of Never Trump ‘Lincoln Project’ Was Foreign Agent for …Russia

Lincoln project co-founder John Weaver was a paid agent of RUSSIA! You just can’t make this stuff up.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/shocker-co-founder-never-trump-lincoln-project-foreign-agent-russia/

 

California Rejected 100,000 Mail-In Ballots Because of Mistakes

More than 100,000 mail-in ballots were rejected by California election officials during the March presidential primary… 102,428 mail-in ballots were disqualified in the state’s 58 counties, about 1.5% of the nearly 7 million mail-in ballots returned…  https://apnews.com/a45421048cd89938df7c882891a97db5

@JonathanTurley: Theater students in New York are seeking the termination of a professor after she appeared to briefly fall asleep during an anti-racist meeting. It is an ironic twist on the woke movement where literally not being awake is now cause to be terminated.

https://jonathanturley.org/2020/07/15/new-york-professor-faces-latest-termination-petition-over-allegedly-falling-asleep-during-anti-racism-meeting/

CNN law expert & ex-FBI agent @JamesAGagliano: NEVER bend the knee to a mob. The NYPD’s Chief of Department is attacked and injured. He recently knelt in “solidarity” with protesters (while in uniform) as a means to appease demonstrators. Wrong move. Said it then and say it now — Mob is coming for all. https://t.co/ngY952Pu54

 

At least seven ships have caught fire at the port of Bushehr in southern Iran, the Tasnim news agency reported on Wednesday.  No casualties have been reported so far, the agency said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-fire-bushehr-idUSKCN24G1U7

Secret Trump order gives CIA more powers to launch cyberattacks

The Central Intelligence Agency has conducted a series of covert cyber operations against Iran and other targets since winning a secret victory in 2018 when President Trump signed what amounts to a sweeping authorization for such activities, according to former U.S. officials with direct knowledge of the matter…

    These countries include Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — which are mentioned directly in the document… People thought, ‘Hey, George W. Bush will sign this,’ but he didn’t,” said a former official. CIA officials then believed, “‘Obama will sign it.’ Then he didn’t.”  “Then Trump came in, and CIA thought he wouldn’t sign,” recalled this official. “But he did.”

https://news.yahoo.com/secret-trump-order-gives-cia-more-powers-to-launch-cyberattacks-090015219.html

The Babylon Bee: Black Conservative Informed by White People That He’s Racist https://babylonbee.com/news/black-conservative-informed-by-white-people-that-hes-racist

Well that is all for today

I will see you FRIDAY night.

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