JULY 20//SILVER FUTURES SURPASS $20.00//GOLD LONDON SPOT PRICE UP $7.40 TO $1816.60//SILVER LONDON SPOT: UP 40 CENTS TO $19.77//COMEX GOLD JULY DELIVERIES: 24.3 TONNES//AUGUST COMEX GOLD WILL HAVE MASSIVE DELIVERIES//CHINA VS USA//NINE CHINESE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS NATIONALIZED/EUROPE SUPPOSEDLY HAS A DEAL TO HELP THE CLUB MED BOYS WHO SUFFERED GREATLY FROM THE COVID 19 VIRUS//UK SUSPENDS HONG KONG EXTRADITION TREATY//IRAN HAS 25 MILLION CITIZENS INFECTED WITH THE CORONAVIRUS//IN THE USA CBL PREPARING FOR CHAPTER 11//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES SAT-MONDAY//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$:1816.60  UP $7.40   The quote is London spot price (cash market)

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$19.77// UP 40 CENTS  London spot price ( cash market)

 

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1818.20  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $19.92//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

AUG GOLD:  $1816.40  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE AUG /:- $0.20

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $20.19…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :  42 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today:0/19

issued: 0

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,808.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/17/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 07/21/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
135 H RAND 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 12
737 C ADVANTAGE 16 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 2
905 C ADM 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 19 19
MONTH TO DATE: 7,679

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 19 NOTICE(S) FOR 1900 OZ  (.0590 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7679 NOTICES FOR 767900 OZ  (23.92 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

115 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 575,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 14,853 for 74.265 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9184  DOWN 57

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9167 down $42

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $7.40 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

 

 

 

GLD: 1,206.89 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER UP 77 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE  SLV:

A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.819 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

WHAT A FRAUD!!

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 526.599  MILLION OZ./

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1219 CONTRACTS FROM 178,744 UP  TO 179,963, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  OI OCCURRED WITH OUR 15 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A SMALL INCREASE  IN SILVER STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.  WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2549 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   JULY: 0  AND SEP 1324 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1324 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1324 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1324 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.62 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 15 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

81.660 MILLION OZ INITIALLY IN JULY.

 

FRIDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 15 CENTS).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE SMALL GAIN AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL INCREASE IN STANDING OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY,  STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A  NET GAIN OF 2549 CONTRACTS OR 12.745 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JULY:

12,253 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 12,253 CONTRACTS) OR 61.27 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 943 CONTRACTS OR 4.712 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY: 61.27 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.75% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,198.68 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EXP                               61.27 MILLION OZ/

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 60 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED  AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1219, WITH OUR 15 CENT GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///FRIDAYTHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1330 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  26549 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 15 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1330 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 1219 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 15 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $19.37 // FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.892 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 127% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JULY  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 115 NOTICE(S) FOR 575,000  OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 81.660 million oz
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 8763 CONTRACTS TO 587,837 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE  GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE  OF $7.70 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// FRIDAY// WE  HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $7.70 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  64

 

WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED 11,220 CONTRACTS  (34.89 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 3050 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 2950 AND OCT: 0 DEC: 100  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3050.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 587,244. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,220 CONTRACTS: 8170 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3050 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 11,220 CONTRACTS OR 34.89 TONNES. FRIDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $7.70 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 34.89 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $7.70).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (3050) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (8170 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  11,220 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)ANOTHER HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN GOLD  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JULY MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) STRONG COMEX OI GAIN AND .5) SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE… AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//FRIDAY//$7.70.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 49,379 CONTRACTS OR 4,937,900 oz OR 153.59 TONNES (13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3798 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 153.59 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 153.59/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.326% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3171,78  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       153.59 TONNES SO FAR..

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1219 CONTRACTS FROM 178,744 UP TO 179,963 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1)   HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A GOOD INCREASE STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR JULY AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1330 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 1330 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1330 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 1219  CONTRACTS TO THE 1330 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 2549 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12.745 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR 15 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 100.02 POINTS OR 3.11%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 31.18 POINTS OR 0.12%   /The Nikkei closed UP 21.06 POINTS OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .52%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9986 /Oil UP TO 40.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and 42.85 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9986 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9869 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 8170 CONTRACTS TO 587,244 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS HUGE COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR  GAIN OF $7.70 IN GOLD PRICING /FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1330 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER HUMONGOUS STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//JULY DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) , …  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,220 CONTRACTS WITH GOLD’S CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN PRICE. NOTE THE FACT THAT LATELY THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ARE SMALL.. SOME OF OUR MAJOR BANKERS REFUSE TO USE THE SERIAL FORWARDS AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM. THUS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST RISES APPRECIABLY AGAINST A LOWER ISSUANCE OF THESE EXCH. FOR PHYSICALS.

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 64

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1330 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  AUG  1330 , OCT: 0  DEC 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1330 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  11,220 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1330 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 8170 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A SMALL  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE COMEX OI GAIN,  A MONSTROUS  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JULY DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION……AND WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN COMEX PRICE OF 7.70 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $7.00).  AND, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A STRONG 34.89 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 11,220, CONTRACTS OR 1,122,000 OZ OR 34.89 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  587,244 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 58.72 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1826 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1826/2200 OR 83.01% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 187,244 contracts// extremely poor volume//hitting rock bottom//most traders have moved to London

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  190,372 contracts//  volume poor //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

JULY 20 /2020

JULY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 64,197.789 oz

Brinks

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

7362.35

OZ

Scotia

 

 

 

229

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
19 notice(s)
 1900 OZ
(0.0590 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
47 contracts
(4700 oz)
0.146 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7679 notices
767900 OZ
23.92 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into Brinks:  64,197.789 oz

 

 

total deposit: 64,197.789 oz

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

 

i) Scotia:  7362.35 oz

(229 kilobars)

 

 

 

total deposit:  7362.35 oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

We had 1  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1 //

Out of Brinks: (dealer to customer)

289.359 oz from dealer Brinks into customer account

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of JULY registered a total of 66 oi contracts FOR a LOSS of 113 contracts. We had 132 notices served on FRIDAY so we GAINED ANOTHER 29 contracts or an additional 2,900 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

 

Next comes August and another strong delivery month and here the OI SHOCKINGLY FELL BY A TINY 102  contracts DOWN to 289,323 contracts, as we continue our countdown to first day notice.

August is contracting very slowly  and today it did not contract at all…we are going to have a whopper of a delivery month

 

 

Sept saw another addition of 3 contracts to stand at 482.  Oct GAINED 1697 contracts UP to 40,085. (The boys still prefer August)

 

We had 19 notices filed today for 1900 oz

 

FOR THE JULY 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 19 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7679) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY (66 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (19 x 100 oz per contract) equals 772600 OZ OR 24.27 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (7679 x 100 oz + (66 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (19) x 100 oz which equals 772600 oz standing OR 24.27 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JULY delivery month (a  non active delivery month).

We gained 29 contracts or an additional 2900 oz will stand at the comex.

We are now witnessing an increase in queue jumping on a daily basis. Sooner or later they will be running out of metal to supply our longs.

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

302,293.430 oz PLEDGED  JULY 9// 2020  JPMORGAN:  9.40 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

 

657,424.187 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/july 2               20.448 tonnes

total pledged gold:  1,146,354.687 oz                                     35.65 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 379.68 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 23.972 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  13,417,271.417 oz or 417.33 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020/SOME JULY 9) which cannot be settled upon:  302,293.43, oz (or 9.402 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 657,424.187 oz added which cannot be settled:  20.448 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,146,354.687 oz or 35.65 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:  12,270,917.0  (381.67 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  12,270,917.9 (381.67 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,792,504.774 oz (646.73 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   34,209,776.191 oz 1064.06 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  937.72 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JULY 20/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

 

JULY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
615,444.690 oz
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
581,751.200 oz
Manfra

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
2,897,870.580 oz
CNT
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
115
CONTRACT(S)
(575,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1479 contracts
 7,395,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  14,853 contracts

74,265,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 1 deposit into the dealer:
i) Into the dealer Manfra:  581,751.200 oz

total dealer deposits: 581,751.200 oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 1 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

 

ii) Into CNT: 2,610,039.780 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.744 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.14% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/327.220 million

 

total customer deposits today:  603,883.100    oz

we had 1 withdrawals:

i) Out of Scotia; 615,444.690 oz

 

 

total withdrawals; 615,444.690   oz

We had 1 adjustments

i) Out of CNT

dealer to customer:  9943.200 oz

 

 

 

total dealer silver: 128.204 million

total dealer + customer silver:  327.220 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The front month of July has an open interest of  1594 contracts, as we lost 47 contracts.  We had 67 notices served on FRIDAY, so we GAINED  20 contracts or an additional 100,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of July as they REFUSED TO  morph into a London based forwards.  It seems that we have little silver over on this side of the pond. We still have a huge amount of contracts still outstanding to be served upon in July.

 

 

 

The next month after July is the non active month of  August and here  sees its open interest FELL by 6 contracts DOWN to 804

The big September contract month sees a GAIN of 41 contracts down to 140,253.

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2020. contract month is represented by 115 contract(s) FOR 575,,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 14,853 x 5,000 oz = 74,265,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY.(1594) and the number of notices served upon today 115 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 14,853 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (1594)- number of notices served upon today (115) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.equals 81,60,000 oz.  (A WHOPPER )

WE GAINED 20 CONTRACTS OR 100,000 OZ WILL  STAND FOR DELIVERY. SILVER IS STILL VERY SCARCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AND THE REASON FOR CONSIDERABLE MORPHING OVER TO LONDON.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 75,844 CONTRACTS // volume GOOD/

 

 

FOR FRIDAY:62.345.,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume fair/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 62,345 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 311 million  OZ  44.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO- 0.22% ((JULY 20/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO +.22% to NAV:   (JULY 20/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 0.22%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 17.67 TRADING 17.55///NEGATIVE 0.68

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT1206.89 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 15//WITH GOLD UP $1.55 TODAY/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 3.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1203.97 TONNES

JULY 13//WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.46 TONNES

JULY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.82 TONNES

JULY 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OX 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1202.57 TONNES

JULY 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.75 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1199.36 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 30//WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $5.03 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.46 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.39 TONNES

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

JULY 20/ GLD INVENTORY 1206.89 tonnes*

LAST;  864 TRADING DAYS:   +263.07 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 764 TRADING DAYS://+441.18  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 20/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:  A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.819 MILLION OZ ‘ENTERED” THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 526.599 MILLION OZ/

JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 1.583 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 522.780 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF  5.123 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.197 MILLION OZ..

JULY 15.WITH SILVER  UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.074 MILLION OZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 13//WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.677 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 4.844 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT  515.795 MILLION OZ

WHAT A FRAUD!!

JULY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 8.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.951 MILLION OZ/

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.118 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//VERY SURPRISING.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.753 MILLION OZ//

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ///

JULY 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.008 MILLION OZ

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.007 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE//// AND A LARGE DEPOSIT OF 1.212 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 20.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

526.599 MILLION OZ.

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Gold’s Role As A Store Of Value Over Centuries – Mark O’Byrne

Delighted to have been asked to speak on the Market Musings Podcast recently. Just click on the play button below to listen.

“Market Musings welcome the founder and research director Mark O’Byrne from GoldCore. When it come to gold and silver Mark is your man. He explains how gold has a tried and tested performance as a store of wealth over centuries, and why he thinks everyone should look to gold especially given the current economic situation. We also talk silver, could that provide enhanced returns over gold and what are the risks?”

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Citi Says It’s ‘Only a Matter of Time’ Before Gold Hits a Record

Gold, silver futures settle higher to tally a sixth weekly gain in a row

Gold steadies above $1,800/oz on rising virus fears

Euro, euro zone bond markets hold out hope for recovery fund, stocks cautious

Euro hits four-month high on hopes for EU recovery fund deal

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

17-Jul-20 1802.90 1807.35, 1435.47 1442.45 & 1578.98 1581.07
16-Jul-20 1804.60 1807.70, 1438.09 1436.04 & 1583.72 1581.56
15-Jul-20 1809.30 1804.60, 1436.22 1441.31 & 1582.96 1579.57
14-Jul-20 1798.20 1801.90, 1436.58 1440.62 & 1583.14 1581.71
13-Jul-20 1808.05 1807.50, 1435.23 1432.26 & 1598.32 1591.68
10-Jul-20 1805.75 1803.10, 1433.40 1427.33 & 1599.35 1594.84
09-Jul-20 1812.45 1812.10, 1434.01 1431.74 & 1600.57 1600.08
08-Jul-20 1799.35 1811.10, 1438.40 1438.74 & 1596.38 1598.48
07-Jul-20 1775.50 1789.55, 1423.77 1424.84 & 1576.11 1585.00
06-Jul-20 1774.40 1787.90, 1420.76 1429.43 & 1572.12 1578.36
03-Jul-20  1774.65 1772.90, 1426.29 1422.40 & 1580.33 1577.70

 

Access Latest Goldnomics Podcast (Part II) Here

Own gold coins and bars in the safest vaults in Zurich, Switzerland with GoldCore. Learn why Switzerland remains a safe haven jurisdiction for owning precious metals. Access Our Most Popular Guide, the Essential Guide to Storing Gold in Switzerland here

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Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

This is quite an enjoyable piece:  The communist country of Viet Nam has a great appreciation for gold.  Ronan Manly is interviewed by the Vietnamese new agency Zing:

(courtesy Ronan Manly/Zing/GATA)

Vietnam permits nice things to be said about gold — maybe someday the FT too?

 Section: 

7:58p ET Friday, July 17, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Having experienced many undependable sovereignties over the last century, Vietnamese have more appreciation for gold than many nationalities. and the other day Bullion Star researcher Ronan Manly elaborated to them on why they are right.

Manly was interviewed at length about gold by a Vietnamese news agency, Zing, which is a bit remarkable, since the Vietnamese currency, the dong, gets little respect inside or outside the country and since there is no press freedom in Vietnam. If the Communist government of Vietnam is permitting nice things to be said about gold in mass media, maybe someday nice things about gold will be reportable in the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal.

Manly’s report about his interview with Zing is headlined “Rising Gold Prices Attract Global and Local Attention, Including in Vietnam” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/rising-gold-prices-attract…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Gold is on a tear in price and will continue to rise due to the huge amounts of fiat currency out there

Kingworldnews/James Turk/GATA)

Gold is on the brink of a record high, Turk tells KWN

 Section: 

9:30p ET Friday, July 17, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Demand for physical gold is huge, there has never been more fiat currency relative to the monetary metals than there is now, and nominal metals prices understate real prices, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tells King World News today. As a result, Turk adds, gold is on the verge of breaking out to a record high. His comments are posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-today-gold-is-on-the-verge-of-a-bre…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Eric Sprott correctly states that the cash price/London spot price for gold/silver is fabricated (unreal) He also states that one mining company that he has an interest in, will hold some of its cash in gold

(zerohedge)

Sprott doubts ‘spot’ prices are real, praises GATA, Maguire

 Section: 

12:29a ET Sunday, July 19, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In his weekly interview with Craig Hemke for Sprott Money News, mining entrepreneur Eric Sprott notes the greatly increasing demand for physical gold and silver on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Sprott says “spot” prices for the monetary metals are unreal, insofar as no metal seems to be available at those prices. He also discloses that a mining company in which he is invested, Jerritt Canyon Gold, is going to start holding some of its cash in real metal, and he wishes that other mining companies would do the same, recognizing the continuing manipulation of the monetary metals markets.

… 

Sprott also compliments the work done by GATA and London metals trader Andrew Maguire, who soon will be interviewed by Sprott Money News.

The interview is 25 minutes long and can be heard at You Tube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJsPiaZAnMU&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

A superb commentary from Alasdair Macleod. last week he wrote on how the dollar will collapse.  Today, sterling

(Alasdair Macleod/GATA)

Alasdair Macleod: The pound’s future in a dollar collapse

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Friday, July 15, 2020

In recent articles for Goldmoney I have pointed out the dollar’s vulnerability to a final collapse in its purchasing power. This article focuses on the factors that will determine the future for sterling.

Sterling is exceptionally vulnerable to a systemic banking crisis, with European banks being the most highly geared of the Global Systemically Important Banks. The UK government, in opting to side with America and cut ties with China, has probably thrown away the one significant chance it has of not seeing sterling collapse with the dollar.

… 

A possible salvation might be to hang onto Germany’s coattails if it leaves a sinking euro to form a hard currency bloc of its own, given her substantial gold reserves. But for now that has to be a longshot.

And lastly, in common with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, the Bank of England has taken for itself more power in monetary matters than the politicians are truly aware of, being generally clueless about money.

Conclusion: The pound is unlikely to survive a dollar collapse, which for any serious student of money is becoming a certainty. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-pound-s-future…

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Get ready for digital gold as Andrew Bailey signals Central bank digital currency is coming

(Guinness)

Bank Of England Governor Signals Central Bank Digital Currency Is Coming

Authored by Steven Guinness,

As confirmed by several economic outlets, including Bloomberg, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey took part in a VTALK with students this past Monday for Speakers for Schools. When the subject of digital currency came up, Bailey said:

We are looking at the question of, should we create a Bank of England digital currency. We’ll go on looking at it, as it does have huge implications on the nature of payments and society. I think in a few years time, we will be heading toward some sort of digital currency.

The digital currency issue will be a very big issue. I hope it is, because that means Covid will be behind us.

Whilst only a short quote, there are several strands to pick up on here.

Firstly, Bailey stating that the BOE are looking into creating a CBDC is not a new revelation. I posted a series of articles in May which looked extensively at a discussion paper published by the bank days before the Covid-19 lockdown was enforced. The paper, ‘Central Bank Digital Currency – Opportunities, challenges and design‘, went as far as detailing the possible technological composition of a future CBDC. It was in 2014 when the BOE first began discussing digital currencies in their September quarterly bulletin.  Six years on, those discussions have advanced notably.

Secondly, if Bailey’s assertion is correct that ‘in a few years time, we will be heading toward some sort of digital currency‘, this would align with the BOE’s Real Time Gross Settlement renewal programme. In August 2019 I posted an article that outlined what the renewal will consist of (Working in Tandem: The Reform of Payment Systems and the Advance of Digital Technology). From 2023 onwards, the bank wants renewed services of RTGS to begin coming online, and by 2025 for it to be fully rolled out and operational.

Consider that this is taking place amidst the Bank for International Settlements ‘Innovation BIS 2025‘ initiative, something which I have regularly written about. This is the ‘hub‘ which brings all leading central banks together in the name of technological innovation.

The RTGS ‘renewal‘ will allow for the bank’s payment system to ‘interface with new payment technologies’, which given the information that the BOE has so far disseminated would likely include distributed ledger technology and blockchain.

For the bank to introduce a CBDC accessible to the public, they will require the reformation of their systems, which is exactly what is happening.

Thirdly, Bailey admits that introducing a CBDC would have ‘huge implications on the nature of payments and society‘. On the payments front, the BOE are pushing the narrative that any CBDC offering would be a ‘complement‘ to cash. It would not, according to them, mean that cash would be withdrawn from circulation. But as I have noted previously, the General Manager of the BIS, Agustin Carstens, made clear in 2019 that in a CBDC world ‘he or she would no longer have the option of paying cash. All purchases would be electronic.

The trend of digital payments outstripping cash has been present for several years now. My position is that instead of simply outlawing cash, the state will allow the use of banknotes to fall to the point that the servicing costs of maintaining the cash infrastructure outweigh the amount of cash still in circulation and being used for payment. They will take the gradual approach as opposed to prising cash away from the public. In the end it has the same effect but appears less premeditated. From the perspective of the state, it is much more desirable if people are seen to have made the decision themselves to stop using cash, rather than the state imposing it upon the population.

The societal aspect is equally as serious, because those who depend on using cash are finding that access to it is growing more restrictive. This is something I have also posted about (Access to Cash: The Connection between Bank Branch Closures and the Post Office). Rural communities in particularly are being compromised, with some entirely dependent on their local post office to withdraw funds. Matters are made worse when the Post Office network itself is coming under increasing strain.

It was also revealed this week that during the Covid-19 lockdown, over 7,000 ATM’s across the UK were closed due to social distancing measures. This represents over 10% of the UK’s ATM network. Some of these ATM’s still remain out of use, particularly at supermarkets and outside certain bank branches. Equally, some of these branches remain closed four months after the lockdown was introduced, and those that are open are only allowing in a couple of people at a time.

You will recall the hysteria around the supposed dangers of using cash as Covid-19 was labelled a pandemic. On no scientific basis whatsoever, people have been led to believe that handling cash can transmit the virus. This is primarily why cash withdrawals at ATM’s crashed leading into the lockdown by around 50%. This time last year transaction volume was at 50.9 million. Today it is 30.8 million, a 40% drop. From personal experience as a cash office clerk, cash use is now beginning to pick up, but remains well below pre-lockdown levels.

Finally, Bailey commented that he hoped ‘the digital currency issue will be a very big issue‘, because if it was it would mean that ‘Covid will be behind us.‘ A valid question to ask here is why when Covid-19 is ‘behind us‘ should that make the case for a CBDC stronger? The answer lies partly in the growing narrative of life after the pandemic, which plays directly into the World Economic Forum devised ‘Great Reset‘ agenda. Part of the ‘Great Reset‘ includes Blockchain, Financial and Monetary Systems and Digital Economy and New Value Creation.

On first glance, you can see how Covid-19 benefits the drive towards central bank digital currencies.

We are told at every turn that life cannot possibly go back to how it was pre coronavirus, including our relationship with money. Predictably, it did not take global institutions like the BIS long to begin reaffirming the cashless agenda. In April they published a bulletin called, ‘Covid-19, cash, and the future of payments‘ where they stated:

In the context of the current crisis, CBDC would in particular have to be designed allowing for access options for the unbanked and (contact-free) technical interfaces suitable for the whole population. The pandemic may hence put calls for CBDCs into sharper focus, highlighting the value of having access to diverse means of payments, and the need for any means of payments to be resilient against a broad range of threats.

Global planners are seizing on the opportunity that Covid-19 has created. But no one should be deceived into thinking that their prescription for a digital monetary system, with CBDC’s at the center, is only coming to light because of the pandemic. This has been in the works for years.

The banking elites are hoping that once global payment systems have been reformed, CBDC’s will not be far behind. Judging by their own timelines, by 2025 a global network of CBDC’s is a real possibility. The more people that turn away from using cash today, the easier the transition away from tangible assets will prove for those who are angling for it to happen.

end

Andrew Maguire interviews David Tice

Andrew Maguire

7:29 AM (22 minutes ago)
to Chris, Midasnh@aol.com, me

Hi Guys, just released my David Tice interview over the weekend. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4O5MNyzyAzQ&feature=youtu.be

As you know, David make regular appearances on CNBC, Bloomberg etc. and is one of the scant few high-profile Fund Managers that advocates gold and silver. It is rare to see these mainstream channels allow David to regularly discusses the paper to physical mismatch!  David is a good friend of Bill, (we all met in Dallas), and in the interview thanks GATA for all your work and we also look at the upcoming gold revaluation how gold will fare through the election etc.

Best Andrew

 

Attachments area

Preview YouTube video Episode 16: Live from the Vault – Featuring Andrew Maguire & David Tice.

Episode 16: Live from the Vault – Featuring Andrew Maguire & David Tice.

end

September futures hit $20 per oz

(zerohedge)

Silver Hits $20 For The First Time Since 2016… And Why It Will Go Much Higher

For the first time since September 2016, Silver futures just broke above $20…

Just a few short months after dropping to the lowest since 2009…

As the gold/silver ratio reverses from its record high spike…

Though gold is still outperforming YTD for now…

But, as tsi-blog.com  explains, silver is set to continue outperforming over the next year.

Gold is more money-like and silver is more commodity-like. Consequently, the relationships that we follow involving the gold/GNX ratio (the gold price relative to the price of a basket of commodities) also apply to the gold/silver ratio. In particular, gold, being more money-like, tends to do better than silver when inflation expectations are falling (deflation fear is rising) and economic confidence is on the decline.

Anyone armed with this knowledge would not have been surprised that the collapse in economic confidence and the surge in deflation fear that occurred during February-March of this year was accompanied by a veritable moon-shot in the gold/silver ratio. Nor would they have been surprised that the subsequent rebounds in economic confidence and inflation expectations have been accompanied by strength in silver relative to gold, leading to a pullback in the gold/silver ratio. The following charts illustrate these relationships.

The first chart compares the gold/silver ratio with the IEF/HYG ratio, an indicator of US credit spreads. It makes the point that during periods when economic confidence plunges, the gold/silver ratio acts like a credit spread (credit spreads rise (widen) when economic confidence falls).

The second chart compares the silver/gold ratio (as opposed to the gold/silver ratio) with the Inflation Expectations ETF (RINF). It makes the point that silver tends to outperform gold when inflation expectations are rising and underperform gold when inflation expectations are falling.

We are expecting a modest recovery in economic confidence and a big increase in inflation expectations over the next 12 months, meaning that we are expecting the fundamental backdrop to shift in silver’s favour. As a result, we are intermediate-term bullish on silver relative to gold. We don’t have a specific target in mind, but, as mentioned in the 16th March Weekly Update when the gold/silver ratio was 105 and in upside blow-off mode, it isn’t a stretch to forecast that at some point over the next three years the gold/silver ratio will trade in the 60s.

Be aware that before silver commences a big up-move in dollar terms and relative to gold there could be another deflation scare. If this is going to happen it probably will do so within the next three months, although we hasten to add that any deflation scare over the remainder of this year will be far less severe than what took place in March

end

J Johson’s commodity report

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/07/20/stupid-is-as-stupid-does/

Stupid Is As Stupid Does!

Posted July 20th, 2020 at 9:18 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,

      August Gold is trading higher with the current price at $1,814.90, up $4.90 with the high nearby at $1,814.90 with the low at $1,806.60. September Silver is adding value as well with its trade at $19.88, up 11.8 cents with the high right there at $19.895 with the low down at $19.655. Another Maginot Line has been crossed in the US-Dollar Index with the pegged value at 95.72, down 16.9 with the low right there at 95.695 along with the high at 96.145. All this, of course happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after another fine example, over the weekend, of “Stupid is as Stupid does”, as we all get to look at Portland’s left coast elected.

     Venezuela’s Bolivar drop caused Gold to gain 92.88 over the weekend with the last trade at 18,126.31 Bolivar with Silver’s gaining 3.047 with its price at 198.552 Bolivar. Argentina’s Peso price for Gold is now at 129,639.31 proving an 804.33 A-Peso gain with Silver’s price at 1,420.10 providing a 23.37 A-Peso’s gain. The Turkish Lira’s price for Gold also gained 56.51 over the weekend with the last recorded price at 12,447.04 Lira with Silver gaining 2.011 T-Lira’s with the last trade at 136.340.

      July Silver’s Delivery Demands are now at 1,594 fully paid for 5,000-ounce contracts and with no Volume or Price to offer so far this morning. Friday’s full trading day within the delivery system happened in between $19.71 and $19.35 with the last recorded trade at the high with the adjusted close at $19.685 as 31 contracts swapped hands and as the delivery system served up 47 receipts somewhere between here and London. The shorts have no choice but to keep shorting. If they leave the field of play, Silver would be sharply higher with today’s Overall Open Interest now at 180,111 Overnighters as another 1,357 short contracts had to be added or things would be more in our favor. Muhahahaha!

      July Gold’s Delivery Demands are now at 66 fully paid for 100-ounce contracts and with a Volume of 12 already up on the board with a trading range between $1,812.60 and $1,807 with the last buy at the high, up $4.30. This proves 113 receipts got settled out during Friday’s trades which had a price range between $1,810.10 and $1,798.50 with the last trade at the high, yet Comex settled the closing price at $1,808.30, with 24 contracts getting settled out on the last day of the week. The fear trade is really showing up behind Gold’s price as another 8,508 short contracts had to be added with the Overall Open Interest now at 587,837 Overnighter’s going against the physicals.

      We have some really big things happening in the early morning as Nine Chinese financial institutions got nationalized in a single day as 1 Trillion Yuan in assets got support, as we ask; is this a new world record in taking over financial institutions for a single country in a single day? I think it is, we’ll wait for more confirmation from others as things start to get really wobbly, not only in the currencies, global politics, but as team Obama become more and more panicky as Q posts continue to expose what the media refuses to reveal in any “news” as post 4599 exposes the Trilogy, and as Post 4605 and 4606 revealing the final goodbyes (you’re fired sign) to Christopher Wray, with General Flynn gets relabeled A Real American Hero!

      Cast aside all doubt, it’s all coming together now. Things are changing and it looks like stuff is getting better by the moment, that is for law abiding citizens, not the criminally elected. Keep your metals close, have a smile on your face and a prayer for all, and as always …

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

end

Silver Price Hits 4-Year High Amidst Record Demand

In many previous precious metals bull markets, gold has moved first, then the gold equities, then silver, and then the silver equities.

So far that pattern appears to be playing out again, as silver  hit a four- year high this week, well institutional money continues to flow into the equities.

Then, when you consider the small size of the silver market, that’s when things really get interesting.

To find out more, click to watch the video now!

Chris Marcus
July 17, 2020

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9986/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9869   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 100.02 POINTS OR 3.11%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 31.18 POINTS OR 0.12%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 21.06 POINTS OR 0.09%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 95.76/Euro RISES TO 1.1459

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.024/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.09/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 40.35 and Brent: 42.85

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.45%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.10% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.38%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.55: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.15

3k Gold at $1814.00 silver at: 19.56   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 38/100 in roubles/dollar) 71.50

3m oil into the 40 dollar handle for WTI and 42 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.09 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9379 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0736 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.45%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.61% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.31%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.8588..

Futures Reverse Losses, Euro Jumps To 4 Month High On Hopes Of EU Rescue Package Deal

S&P500 futures pared earlier losses, as European stocks gained and European bond spreads narrowed while the euro strengthened to a four-month high as leaders reportedly made progress in negotiating a historic stimulus package which was still missing after three days of tense, deadlocked weekend negotiations.

US equity futures traded -0.1% lower after dropping -0.6% earlier. In Merger Monday news, Chevron agreed to buy Noble Energy for about $5 billion in shares, the first major deal since the coronavirus triggered a severe oil slump. “Our strong balance sheet and financial discipline gives us the flexibility to be a buyer of quality assets during these challenging times,” Chevron Chief Executive Officer Michael Wirth said in a statement on Monday. “This is a cost-effective opportunity for Chevron to acquire additional proved reserves and resources.“ The deal values Noble at $10.38 a share, or 0.1191 of a Chevron share, equivalent to a 7.5% premium over Friday’s closing price. The total enterprise value, including debt, is $13 billion.

The single currency hit its highest levels against the dollar since March 9, at $1.1467 after early Monday reports of progress following three days of negotiations towards the proposed 750 billion-euro fund.  The four governments that have been holding up negotiations are ready to agree on a key plank of the deal, two officials said. The Netherlands, Austria, Denmark and Sweden, also known as the “Frugal Four” are satisfied with €390 billion of the fund being made available as grants with the rest coming as low-interest loans. Still, that number is about €110BN below the €500BN that was originally expected to be made available in the form of grants. A deal envisaging €400 billion in grants – down from a proposed €500 billion – was also rejected by the north, which said it saw €350 billion as the maximum.

Talks on the fund were adjourned on Monday until 1600 CET (1400 GMT). After the adjournment was announced, both the Austrian Chancellor Sebestian Kurz and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said progress was being made.

“The euro has gained on the likelihood that they do come up with some solution at this meeting,” said Marshall Gittler, head of investment research at BDSwiss Group. “I had expected them to fail, or at best to come to only a partial agreement, but the fact that they’ve kept at it for this long shows that they really are determined to succeed,” Gittler said. A successful agreement would probably give the euro a further boost, he added.

“The chances of a deal appear higher now than before the weekend, with the Frugal Four winning concessions while also acknowledging grants must be part of the deal,” strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management said in a note to clients. “While it remains to be seen if a deal can be done today, we continue to expect an eventual agreement, which would act as a catalyst for the euro and support Eurozone equities and bonds.”

Bond markets also cheered the progress, with Italy’s 10-year bond yield spread over Germany, a key gauge of risk in the region, falling to 161 bps, the lowest level since March.

Stock markets were more reserved in their optimism, however. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index 0.2% higher by mid-morning trade in London, reversing an earlier loss of -0.8% with a risk-off tone expressed in sectoral gainers and losers. Shares of chemical and construction companies led the gains, while the region’s travel and leisure stocks retreated on continued worries over the coronavirus pandemic. AstraZeneca Plc gained ahead of highly anticipated results from early vaccine studies.

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.26%, reversing loses earlier in the day, led by materials and IT, after rising in the last session. Most markets in the region were down, with Jakarta Composite dropping 0.6% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 falling 0.5%, while Shanghai Composite resumed its bubbly ways, closing at session highs, up 3.1% after regulators raised the equity investment cap for insurers and encouraged mergers and acquisitions among brokerages and mutual fund houses. China’s Chalco and Changjiang & Jinggong posting the biggest advances. Japan’s Topix gained 0.2%, with Japan Communications and Takara & Co Ltd rising the most. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 0.5% after authorities warned that a surge in COVID-19 cases in the country’s second most populous state could take weeks to tame.

More than 14 million people have been infected by the novel coronavirus globally and nearly 602,000 have died, according to a Reuters tally.

South Korea’s KOSPI pared gains to fall 0.1%. Japan’s Nikkei was also down 0.1% after data showed the country’s exports suffered a double-digit decline for the fourth month in a row in June.

Meanwhile, in the US talks on a new stimulus package will start on Monday with with Mitch McConnell, Steven Mnuchin and others as several states in the country’s South and West imposed new lockdowns to curb the virus and 80% of states now stopping or reversing reopening according to Goldman.

With the virus spreading rapidly in parts of the U.S., there are still plenty of worries about the health of the global economy. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti has warned that the city is on the brink of another stay-at-home order. Hong Kong added a record 108 infections, will require civil servants to work from home and plans to mandate wearing of masks in all shared indoor areas.

”The economic dislocation of Covid-19 triggered a tremendous response by fiscal and monetary policy makers as well as central banks,” said Gene Tannuzzo, a portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle. “These measures helped to stabilise markets, yet we still find ourselves in an environment of continuous low growth.”

While stock markets have inched higher in recent weeks, there are still plenty of worries about the health of the global economy, especially with the virus spreading unabated in parts of the U.S. In the euro area, unemployment could hit almost 10% by the end of the year as the economy slumps, according to a Bloomberg survey.

In rates, Treasury yields were slightly richer across the curve, outperforming bunds following report that EU leaders are set to resume deadlocked recovery-fund talks. Treasury yields were lower by 0.5bp to 1.1bp across the curve with 2s10s, 5s30s flatter by 0.6bp and 0.2bp; 10-year yields around 0.618%, richer by less than 1bp vs Friday’s close. Bunds cheaper by 2.2bp, gilts by 1.2bp vs Treasuries.

In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index shrugged off early gains to slip as the euro rallied to 4 month highs. Italian bonds climbed and U.S. equity futures pared losses as European stocks gained. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen rose to 107.22. while Sterling gained 0.4% to trade as high as $1.2618. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar was down 0.1% at $0.6989.

In commodities, spot gold traded flat at $1,809.58 an ounce, still near a nine-year top. Oil extended losses toward $40 a barrel, unnerved by the prospect of rising coronavirus cases halting a recovery in fuel demand. WTI and Brent were both down 1% each to $40.14 per barrel and $42.71 per barrel, respectively.  Prices for copper, a barometer of economic growth, fell on Monday after data showed rising inventories in Chinese warehouses and on concern the climbing coronavirus cases threatened a sustainable global recovery.

Halliburton and IBM are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,207.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 370.93
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 164.86
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 542.42
  • Nikkei up 0.09% to 22,717.48
  • Topix up 0.2% to 1,577.03
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 25,057.99
  • Shanghai Composite up 3.1% to 3,314.15
  • Sensex up 1% to 37,387.70
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 6,001.57
  • Kospi down 0.1% to 2,198.20
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to -0.445%
  • Euro up 0.4% to $1.1468
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 1.043%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 0.396%
  • Brent futures down 0.6% to $42.90/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,812.34
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 95.80

Top Overnight News

  • The four EU governments holding up negotiations over 390Bn stimulus package to reboot the bloc’s economy are ready to agree on a key plank of the deal, officials said
  • Informal Brexit meetings between the U.K. and EU’s chief negotiators in recent weeks have failed to make progress
  • U.K. is set to halt its extradition pact with Hong Kong, marking a further diplomatic escalation with China
  • Saudi Arabian King Salman bin Abdulaziz of has beenadmitted to a hospital in Riyadh early Monday for medical tests, the second elderly ruler of an oil-rich Gulf Arab nation to be hospitalized in less than a week

APAC stocks traded choppy after the region initially took its cue from Wall Street’s mixed close on Friday as the decline in Netflix shares kept other large tech stocks at bay ahead of another earnings-abundant week, with 92 S&P 500 companies alongside eight Dow 30 constituents bracing to report their numbers – including the likes of Tesla, Microsoft, Twitter, IBM and some major US airlines. ASX 200 (-0.5%) lost steam after the open as Australia remained subdued by the outbreak in its second largest state of Victoria– which prompted authorities to announce a mandatory mask-wearing rule over the weekend. Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) swung between gains and losses after seeing initial pressure as Japan’s June trade balance printed a significantly wider-than-expected deficit in JPY terms, but with losses somewhat cushioned on currency dynamics. Meanwhile, Hang Seng (-0.1%) conformed to the downside across the region at the open and as Hong Kong is set to tighten restrictions following a spike in COVID-19 cases, but later erased losses, whilst Shanghai Comp (+3.1%) outperformed as reports noted that Beijing is to lower its COVID-19 alert level as cases are back under control, whilst the PBoC also injected a net CNY 50bln via 7-day reverse repos. Finally, JGB futures traded lower in early Tokyo trade, whilst most of the curve saw some cheapening, but the longer-end held despite 20yr supply tomorrow.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Growth to Halve as City Loses Distinctiveness: S&P
  • China Condemns U.K.’s ‘Wrong Words and Actions’ on Hong Kong
  • BP Singapore Oil Traders Placed on Leave Amid Disputed Deals

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.3%) kicked the session off on the backfoot before paring losses as market participants eye events in Brussels and the COVID situation in the US. Despite some of the harsh words spoken between EU leaders over the weekend, the latest state of play indicates that some form of agreement on the recovery fund could be on the cards as the so-called “frugal four” appear to have settled on a figure of EUR 390bln for the grants component of the fund (subject to pushing for additional rebates from the EU budget). As such, it is now on EU members external to the frugals to meet the group “halfway”. Talks have currently taken a pause and will resume once again later today at 1500BST. Despite a potential agreement being on the horizon and upside for the EUR currency (suggesting the market is taking a favourable view of the situation), stocks took a little while to recover off lows with indices now broadly flat/marginally firmer.  Stateside, COVID concerns remain at the forefront with the US reporting +67k cases yesterday and as according to Fulcrum economists, the r-rate is above 1 in 45 of the 50 US states, which between them account for 95% of U.S. GDP. From a sectoral standpoint, sectors trade mixed with some of the more cyclical names such as travel & leisure and autos faring worse than peers. For the former, it is worth noting that reports suggest Barcelona could have to return to lockdown within the next two weeks, such a development would be troubling given it is such a tourist hotspot for Europe and a potential sign of things to come for other such destinations. Elsewhere, losses for health care names are shallower than most with AstraZeneca (+3.2%) lending some support after signing an in-principal agreement with Britain’s business ministry for 1mln doses of a treatment containing COVID-19 neutralising antibodies for those who cannot receive a vaccine. Note, markets also await data from the Co.’s early-stage human trials due to be published in The Lancet later today (timing TBC). Other notable movers include Natixis (-7.3%) after BPCE pushed back on FT speculation that it was looking to purchase the remaining 30% shares of Natixis they do not already control. To the upside, UBI Banca (+12.4%) sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after reports noted that Intesa Sanpaolo increased its bid for UBI, offering EUR 0.57/shr in addition to 1.7 shares for each UBI share.

Top European News

  • Glaxo to Invest Up to $1 Billion in CureVac Vaccine Pact
  • U.K. Orders 90 Million Vaccine Doses from Pfizer, Valneva
  • Europe’s Climate Laggard Plans Green Revolution With Oil Company

In FX, the Dollar is mixed vs major rivals and seems to be settling into relatively narrow ranges that often mark the start of a new week, albeit after some volatility in certain Usd/G10 pairings overnight and in early EU trade. The index is rotating around 96.000 within a 95.792-96.183 band and maintaining an underlying bid on broad risk aversion to counter losses against a few counterparts and the latest more specific US COVID-19 developments that include record rises of confirmed cases in some states again.

  • EUR – Renewed hope of a deal on the EU Recovery Fund at the next meeting of leaders is keeping the Euro elevated amidst stops on a break of last week’s peak vs the Greenback that pushed the pair up to circa 1.1467 at one stage. However, an agreement is far from certain as the so called ‘frugals’ continue to contest the total size of the crisis package and composition between grants and loans – for a more in depth look at the current state of play and latest proposals check out the headline feed at 9.03BST. In terms of technical factors, Eur/Usd resistance is seen at the 1.1495 ytd high from March 9 ahead of 1+ bn expiries at 1.1500, while even heftier option expiry interest at the 1.1400 strike (2.6 bn) should add to psychological support and underlying bids.
  • CHF/JPY – Both weaker vs the Buck, with the Franc back below 0.9400 and Yen under 107.00, albeit off worst levels through 107.50 on the back of worse than forecast Japanese trade data, while the former will have taken note of a Chf 5 bn or so jump in Swiss domestic bank sight deposits. Indeed, Eur/Chf is also higher alongside Eur/Jpy, eyeing 1.0775 and 123.00 ahead of CPI and trade respectively on Tuesday.
  • GBP/NZD/CAD/AUD – All essentially flat relative to the US Dollar, with Sterling gleaning some traction from the single currency’s advance as Eur/Gbp fails to extend beyond last Friday’s high and drifts back down towards 0.9100, while the Kiwi rotates around 0.6550 on marginally favourable Aud/Nzd cross flows in the run up to RBA minutes and a speech from Governor Lowe that are keeping the Aussie contained/capped at 1.0675 and near 0.7000. Elsewhere, the Loonie is meandering between 1.3600 and 1.3570 awaiting Canadian housing data, retail sales and CPI over the next 48 hours for some independent impetus following the BoC and July MPR that was bereft of economic estimates.
  • EM – Another strong rally in Chinese equities, a firmer PBoC Usd/Cny midpoint fix and net injection of 7-day liquidity all keeping the Yuan afloat above 7.0000 and close to resistance near 6.9800 that has been tested twice so far in July, but the Lira remains rigid between 6.8500-8600 ahead of Thursday’s CBRT policy meeting even though the Turkish CB jacked up the FX RRR by 300 bp to raise reserves by some Usd 9 bn.

In commodities, WTI and Brent have begun the week on the backfoot, as sentiment in general has been subdued for much of the session after a choppy APAC handover following a mixed US close and a number of updates from the EU Council meeting. For the crude complex itself newsflow has been slow, attention was grabbed by reports that the Saudi King Abdulaziz was admitted to hospital; but, ultimately did not cause a price reaction as the reason was testing for an infection. For the week itself there isn’t anything scheduled on the crude front of note, aside from the usual weekly private inventories, DoE’s & Baker Hughes updates. As such, the complex may well itself more at the whim of broader sentiment/USD action – barring any unscheduled updates of course. Most recently, Sinopec are cutting refining rates for July due to demand being impacted by severe flooding, according to sources. Moving to metals where spot gold is currently little changed on the day and is comfortably above USD 1800/oz handle and withing proximity to the high of circa USD 1812/oz. Citi, on the precious metal, writes that a rally to record prices is only a matter of time and ascribes a 30% chance to USD 2000/oz by Christmas; given, record ETF inflows, increased gold asset allocations & low real yields among other factors.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing major scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After 3 days and long nights of the extended EU recovery fund summit, the diplomatic lake in Brussels remains frozen over even if there does seem to be signs that we’ll see a thaw today.

The very latest reports this morning (although this could be out of date by the time you read) are pointing towards a possible compromise for €390bn in grants in the recovery fund. It seems much depends on whether Macron believes this to be ambitious enough. The wires have just quoted a French official as saying “France now see a path to a recovery fund deal”. It seems we may be on hold until this afternoon though but the fact that we are still going well into a fourth day suggests a desire to get something done.

The Euro is largely unchanged this morning against the greenback at 1.1424 even as the US dollar index is up +0.20%. Meanwhile, Asian markets are trading mixed with the Shanghai Comp (+2.62%) and Hang Seng (+0.35%) up while the Nikkei (+0.05%) and Kospi (-0.05%) are flat and the Asx (-0.48%) is down. Chinese markets have danced to a different beat over the last couple of weeks so not much read through for other global markets here. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are trading down -0.32%.

Moving onto the coronavirus, globally reported cases crossed the 14 million mark over the weekend with fatalities above 605k. Sao Paulo crossed New York to become the most infected state globally with 415,049 confirmed cases. In the US, cases rose at an average of +1.72% per day this weekend above the +1.53% rise per day registered in the previous 5 weekends while fatalities rose at +0.47% vs. previous 5 weekend average of 0.34%. In terms of state level data new case growth slowed in Texas, Florida and Arizona over the weekend compared to previous weekends indicating that renewed lockdown measures are helping. However, in California new case growth was at an average of +2.47% vs. the previous 5 weekend average of +2.20%. Meanwhile, fatalities picked up with Texas registering an average per day growth of +2.21% as against +1.07% per day over the previous 5 weekends. Likewise, Florida (at +1.83% vs. +0.99%), California (at +1.26% vs. +0.74%) and Arizona (at +3.41% vs. +1.77%) all registered rises.

In Asia, Hong Kong is planning to extend mandatory wearing of masks to more public spaces after registering a record 108 new infections yesterday and has extended restaurant restrictions and gym closures for another week. Melbourne has also mandated its residents to wear masks as Victoria state added another 275 cases. China’s Xinjiang province is also seeing a small spike in new cases (17) leading to concerns around a second wave.

In other overnight news, talks on a new coronavirus stimulus package will start at the White House today with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and others. Bloomberg reported that priorities for the talks include funding to expedite development of therapeutics and vaccines for the coronavirus, “protections for the American worker and those that employ individuals” and the manufacturing sector, particularly bringing jobs back to the US from abroad. President Donald Trump’s chief of staff said that “It looks like that new package will be in the trillion-dollar range, as we have started to look at it, whether it’s a payroll tax deduction, whether it’s making sure that unemployment benefits continue without a disincentive to return to work.”

The data highlight this week will be the flash PMIs for July on Friday (Japan Wednesday). Elsewhere earnings season picks up a bit more, with 88 releases from S&P 500 companies and another 76 from the STOXX 600.

For the flash PMIs for July, the highlight will be whether US progress has stalled given the increased spread of the virus over the last few weeks. In terms of expectations the US numbers are expected to tick up from the high 40s to the 51-52 range. In Europe there is more of a spread but the composite is expected to be at 51. It will be interesting to see if the European numbers can edge ahead of the US given the clearer run of reopenings. However Europe did see lower troughs and could have more scarring as a result. We will see over the months ahead as to whether the US – that didn’t ever totally lockdown – will see that offset by not fully controlling the virus.

Speaking of the US, another data highlight of note will be the weekly initial jobless claims for the week through July 18. Last week it fell by a smaller-than-expected -10k to 1.3m, which is the smallest weekly decline since they reached their peak back in late March, raising concerns over the speed of the labour market recovery. Over in Europe, another release will be the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence indicator for July (Thursday). The last couple of months have seen a rebound from its April low, but it still remains well below its levels at the start of the year, so it’ll be interesting to see if this upward momentum is sustained.

Earnings season moves into full flow this week, with 88 releases from S&P 500 companies and another 76 from the STOXX 600. In terms of the highlights to look out for, today we have IBM. Then tomorrow, that’s followed by Novartis, The Coca-Cola Company, Texas Instruments, Philip Morris, Lockheed Martin and UBS. Then on Wednesday, we have Microsoft, Thermo Fisher Scientific and Tesla. Thursday sees Roche, Intel, AT&T, Unilever, Union Pacific, Daimler, Twitter and Hyundai release earnings. Finally on Friday, we’ll hear from Verizon, NextEra Energy, T-Mobile and American Express.

It’s a quieter week on the central bank front, with Fed speakers now in their blackout period ahead of next week’s meeting. However, we will get decisions from some EM central banks, including Turkey and South Africa on Thursday and Russia on Friday. Otherwise, the Bank of Japan will be releasing the minutes of their June meeting today, and we’ll also hear from the BoE’s Haldane, Tenreyro and Haskel this week.

Looking back at last week now and markets were generally constructive even though the outlook for the virus in the U.S. has caused a great deal of uncertainty after more states paused and rolled back reopening plans. The S&P 500 gained +1.25% (+0.28% Friday) on the week, and finished at the highest end-of-week close of the pandemic. The tech-focused Nasdaq underperformed this week as earnings season got underway, falling -1.08% (+0.28% Friday) as the mega-cap growth NYSE FANG index saw its worst week (-4.91%) since the height of the market turmoil in March. European equities slightly outperformed the S&P with the Stoxx 600 gaining +1.60% (+0.16% Friday) over the five days. It was the third straight weekly advance, tied for the longest streak since November 2019. Major European bourses were all strongly higher on the week with the DAX (+2.26%), CAC (+1.99%), FTSE (+3.20%) and FTSE MIB (+3.30%) gaining ground. Asian indices were fairly mixed as Chinese stocks saw a large pullback after the over +7.5% rally the prior week with the CSI 300 down -4.29%, while the Nikkei (+1.82%) and Kospi (+2.37%) were higher over the week.

Core sovereign bonds were mixed even as risk assets generally rose. US 10yr Treasury yields fell -1.8bps (+1.0bps Friday) to finish at 0.627%, while 10yr Bund yields gained +1.8bps (+1.8bps Friday) to -0.45%. In other fixed income, HY cash spreads continued tightening both in Europe and the U.S. as sentiment improves and more stimulus seems on the way. US HY cash spreads tightened -39bps (-3bps Friday) and Europeans ones tightened -14bps (-4bps) Friday. The dollar fell -0.73% on the week to its lowest weekly close since February 2019, while the Euro gained +1.13% to the highest point early March.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 100.02 POINTS OR 3.11%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 31.18 POINTS OR 0.12%   /The Nikkei closed UP 21.06 POINTS OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .52%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9986 /Oil UP TO 40.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and 42.85 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.9986 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9869 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/CHINA/THE GLOBE/SATURDAY

Northwestern City Imposes “Wartime” Lockdown As Another COVID-19 Cluster Emerges In China: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Xinjiang capital closed due to outbreak
  • US sees another daily record in COVID-19 cases
  • Florida reports latest numbers

* * *

Another Chinese city has assumed a “wartime footing” and reimposed strict lockdowns along with aggressive testing and tracking after a cluster of cases was discovered yesterday.

Except this time, the city being locked down also happens to be the capital of China’s northwestern Xinjiang Province, where CCP officials were recently targeted by US sanctions over their involvement in an extensive prison-camp system where 1 million or more of the state’s Muslim Uighur population have been imprisoned.

Though the virus hit the city during the first round of the outbreak, Party officials tasked with overseeing public-health in Xinjiang said that officials had tracked the latest cluster to Xinjiang’s capital Urumqi, according to the official Weibo account of the regional government.

In Urumqi, local officials asked people not to make unnecessary trips outside the city, and asked that anybody who absolutely needs to travel take a test first. The government also carried out city-wide free infection tests, officials told the press conference as part of what the officials termed a “wartime” response.

Director of the Disease Control and Prevention Center in Urumqi, Rui Baoling, told a news conference on Saturday that recent cases in the city were associated with a cluster of activities. All the confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections were reported in the Tianshan District, CCTV said. She didn’t say what activities were involved.

“The epidemic has developed rapidly,” Rui was quoted saying.

Xinjiang has so far mostly avoided the worst of the pandemic, which burst out of the central Chinese city of Wuhan (capital of the centrally located Hubei Province) in December and January (though there’s some evidence to suggest that the virus might have been spreading internationally and domestically prior to then). The province is rural and among the poorest in China. On Saturday morning, the region reported a total of 17 coronavirus cases, plus 11 asymptomatic cases (remember these data are reported with a 24 hour delay). Another 269 people were under medical observation.

Urumqi on Friday launched an emergency response plan that placed the city on a “wartime footing” and called for the study of new cases, both symptomatic and asymptomatic.

“The epidemic situation is generally controllable,” Rui was quoted as saying to state media.

And while that may be true, the CCP isn’t taking any chances. The crackdown to suppress the cluster led the city to cancel more than 600 scheduled flights at Urumqi Diwopu International Airport, more than 4/5ths of total flights. The city also suspended subway services. Including the 16 cases in Urumqi, China reported 22 new cases over the last 24 hours, up from 10 a day earlier.

Six of those were imported.

China reported 14 new asymptomatic patients, up from five a day earlier.

The outbreak in Xinjiang comes after the PRC’s capital Beijing suffered a flare-up of coronavirus infections last month.

As of Friday, mainland China had 83,644 confirmed coronavirus cases, the health authority said. The COVID-19 death toll remained at 4,634.

Meanwhile, the US set another record on Friday by reporting more than 77,000 coronavirus cases (77,233 to be exact) and 951 deaths. The US is now averaging just under 1,000 deaths per day. While the numbers are still nowhere near the 3,000/month that the CDC had once worried about, it still represents movement in the wrong direction.

The US set another one-day record with reported on Friday, prompting some hard-hit states to impose new lockdown measures, including the shuttering of most California schools. The 77,233 infections recorded by the Covid Tracking Project were accompanied by another grim tally of 951 fatalities.

On Saturday, Florida showed some signs of stabilization, with 10,328 new Florida COVID-19 cases overnight, bringing the total to 337,569. Hospital admissions climbed to 20,632 while the state reported another 90 deaths, bringing the total to 4,895 deaths.

END
CHINA/UIGHURS
Chinese ambassador struggles to explain shocking footage of handcuffed and blindfolded Uighurs loaded onto a train headed for “reeducation camps”
(zerohedge)

Chinese Ambassador Struggles To Explain Shocking Footage Of Handcuffed & Blindfolded Uighurs Loaded Onto Train

During a Sunday morning BBC news program, China’s ambassador to the UK Liu Xiaoming was in a rare segment asked point blank about viral footage which purports to show a terrifying scene from Xinjiang province of Muslim minority Uighurs being handcuffed and loaded onto train cars.

While the footage, which appears to have been secretly caught via drone, appears to be a year old or more, it resurfaced in recent weeks, gaining millions of views and reigniting allegations of Uighur people being mass shipped to communist ‘reeducation’ camps and sprawling detention centers.

During the tenses Andrew Marr Show segment, Liu described Xinjiang simply as “the most beautiful place.”

Showing the shocking footage which many observers said echoes Jews being mass loaded onto cattle cars during the Holocaust to be taken to their deaths, Marr pressed the Chinese ambassador with:

“Can I ask you why people are kneeling, blindfolded and shaven, and being led to trains in modern China? What is going on there?” 

To which Liu replied: “I do not know where you get this video tape. Sometimes you have a transfer of prisoners, in any country.” And Liu then questioned the authenticity and location of the video: “I do not know, where did you get this video clip?”

Marr then said Western intelligence agencies and Australian experts have backed or ‘verified’ the clip, though this remains uncertain, to which the ambassador said tersely:

“The so-called ‘western intelligence’ keep making false accusations against China.”

He added: “They say ’one million Uighur has been persecuted, do you know how many population Xinjiang has? Forty years ago it was four or five million, now it is 11m people.”

And addressing widespread, persistent accusations of ongoing ethno-religious cleansing of Chinese Muslims in the provice, Liu said: “People say we have ethnic cleansing, but the population has doubled in forty years.”

Marr promptly rebutted: “According to your own local government statistics, the population growth in Uighur jurisdictions in that area has fallen by 84% between 2015 and 2018.” Liu responded: “That’s not right. I gave you the official figure as a Chinese ambassador. This is a very authoritative figure.

The two also sparred over sanctions. “If the UK goes that far to impose sanctions on any individuals in China, China will certainly make a resolute response to it,” the Chinese ambassador said. “You have seen what happened between China (and) the United States. They sanctioned Chinese officials, we sanctioned their senators, their officials. I do not want to see this tit-for-tat between China-US happen in China-UK relations,” he added.

And then this biting line:

“I think the UK should have its own independent foreign policy rather than dance to the tune of the Americans like what happened to Huawei.”

The degree to which this video is or can be verified by US intelligence will be interesting. It could be invoked when potential further human rights related sanctions are rolled out, given the escalating tit-for-tat between Beijing and the Trump administration.

end

CHINA

Nine Chinese financial institutions are nationalized:  4 life insurance companies, two trust firms and 3 security firms. Maybe China is not rebounding at all!

(zerohedge)

Nine Chinese Financial Institutions With Over 1 Trillion Yuan In Assets Are Nationalized On The Same Day

Perhaps it’s a coincidence that just two days after we reported that China has been rocked by an “unprecedented” surge in bank runs which forced local regulators to “publicly vouch for the soundness of its lenders as the police halted the run”, on Friday Chinese financial regulators took over a record nine financial institutions which they said broke rules and added risk to a financial system facing increasing headwinds from the coronavirus pandemic. Or perhaps the two are in fact connected, and as faith in China’s financial system sinks and more money is pulled out of the country’s insolvent banks, more banks will be bailed out or nationalized.

Whatever the case, the takeovers of four insurers, two trust firms and three securities companies that managed a combined 1 trillion yuan ($143 billion) in assets represent Beijing’s first major regulatory move this year and follows the extensively documented bailouts of several regional lenders last year. Among the companies taken over the China’s Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission are Huaxia Life Insurance Co., Tianan Life Insurance Co., Tian An Property Insurance Co. and Yian Property Insurance Co, the regulator said on its website.

Meanwhile, China’s securities regulator said it would take over three other entities—New Times Securities, Guosheng Securities and Guosheng Futures—and two trust firms, New China Trust Co. and New Times Trust Co.

The regulators said the takeovers are aimed at ensuring “stable operations” of the firms, because well, what else can they say: most Chinese financial institutions are insolvent and this is just the beginning? Probably not.

The takeovers continue an effort launched by Chinese authorities in 2019 to prevent systemic risks by taking over failing banks – something Beijing had not done in decades over fears of sparking bank runs – while also curbing debt as the country’s growth slows.

There was another common threat among the insolvent companies. According to the WSJ, many of the newly-nationalized firms have been linked in Chinese media reports to disgraced financier Xiao Jianhua, the founder of Beijing-based Tomorrow Holding which also controlled Baoshang Bank Co., a troubled regional lender that was the subject of the highest profile seizure last year (see “Chinese Bank With $100 Billion In Assets Is Bailed Out“).

As a reminder, Xiao, who is now a Canadian national with vast holdings in Chinese financial firms and ties to China’s military, disappeared in 2017 from a luxury Hong Kong hotel. According to his company and Hong Kong police, after he entered mainland China in January 2017, he hasn’t been reachable since.

Xiao was among Chinese tycoons whose empire fell under intense regulatory scrutiny in recent years, around the time officials cracked down on conglomerates such as Anbang and HNA Group which had racked up massive debt from global acquisition sprees, forcing them to divest overseas assets such as New York’s Waldorf Astoria hotel, in Anbang’s case, and, for HNA, a stake in Deutsche Bank.

* * *

Explaining the takeover of the four insurers, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said they had violated China’s insurance law and triggered a takeover article that calls for a government intervention if an insurer’s solvency ratio falls below regulatory requirements. The takeover took effect Friday and will last for at least one year, the statement said.

Similar to an FDIC “failure Friday” event, China’s regulator designated six big Chinese insurance companies and financial institutions to take custody of the companies’ business. When China’s central bank seized Baoshang Bank last year, it similarly asked a state bank to manage the lender’s operations.

Also similar to the Baoshang takeover, regulators said the businesses and insurance policies of the seized companies will continue during the takeover. Eventually, regulators will seek to liquidate assets in the two trust firms and introduce new investors to shore up capital bases.

Meanwhile, as the WSJ notes, analysts have been warning of rising financial risks this year after the Chinese economy slipped into contraction in the first quarter amid effects of the coronavirus. In response to the outbreak, Beijing ordered the nation’s banks to step up lending to struggling small businesses that have long been seen as risky borrowers. As a result, the amount of bad debt in the banking industry quickly piled up in the year’s first half and is expected to continue to rise for the rest of the year.

And while some economists (perhaps those who are sponsored by China) believe Beijing is better positioned to contain financial risks after China’s GDP miraculously rebounded to positive in Q2, others believe that while Beijing is parading with fake economic numbers to boost its global credibility, the reality is that behind the scenes China’s financial system gets ever closer to collapse. Indeed, Shen Zhengyang, an analyst at Northeast Securities said some corners of China’s financial system could turn more vulnerable in the wake of the pandemic.

“Regulators are more eager to stabilize the financial markets as the broader economy worsens,” said Mr. Shen. “A direct takeover allows for more efficient coordination.”

Meanwhile, the toxic feedback loop of bank runs, bank failures, and bank nationalizations, leading to more bank runs, more bank failures and more bank nationalizations, will only accelerate until a critical mass is finally hit at which point Beijing will find it impossible to quietly force large, state-owned banks to bailout an increasingly greater percentage of the country’s smaller and medium banks.

end
Michael Every..on the weekend’s events plus today:
(Michael Every)

Republican Congressman Proposes Legislation Forcing Declaration Of War On China If Taiwan Is Invaded

Authored by Michael Every of Rabobank

“Over by Christmas.” So says PM Boris Johnson, bumbling on happily about how Coronavirus is under control in the UK, and so how employers should strongly reconsider sending everyone back to work in offices as normal from 1 August – and against the backdrop of such opening ups failing in Hong Kong, Israel, and Australia and against the warnings of his scientific advisors. Whatever happened to “guided by the science”? It would appear to now be “guided by the dismal science” – let’s pretend the economy is going to Boris back. ‘Pretend’ being the operative word.

The last time that the UK said something this serious would be over by Christmas it was WW1, where the patriotic, aristocratic BoJo/Rees-Moggs of the country leap-frogged their way to sign up to fight under a leadership by the same class best satirised by Blackadder’s General Melchett proclaiming that to repeatedly attack where the enemy was strongest, not weakest, would ensure Britain would: “win the greatest victory since the Winchester flower-arranging team beat Harrow by twelve sore bottoms to one!” Of course, there was also a killer virus then too.

“Over by Christmas” might well have also applied where British leap-frogging in 1914 led, as the key Euro-summit that has been dragging on since Friday dragged on until the early hours of Monday morning; you know, the urgent summit to try to shape the apparently-Rubicon-crossing fiscal package that will help Europe recover from the same virus the UK thinks will be over by 25 December anyway. (Which, I should also further add, is peak flu season anyway.) At this stage Europe appear to be stuck on the final EUR50bn difference between either EUR350bn or EUR400bn in grants in a EUR700bn supplement to the 10-year budget – or the EU might have just found common ground at a figure of EUR390bn in grants. Indeed, the Frugal Five are perhaps now only the Frugal Four as Denmark has apparently defected (which anyone might want to do after being stuck in a room talking about an EU budget for three whole days.) What is notable –besides the EU again showing that when the chips are down it still behaves like the People’s Front of Judea, NOT the Judean People’s Front, in ‘The Life of Brian’ (“Right! This calls for immediate discussion!”)– is that even EUR390bn is out of scale with what is being spent elsewhere, and with this much effort to get that far, surely hopes for more are ‘Boris-like’?

Meanwhile, not getting the attention it deserves given the gravity of the statement is that on Friday Republican US Congressman Yoho announced he will propose legislation this week that would force the US to declare war on China should Beijing attempt to occupy Taiwan. Yes, this is not law yet – but against the current political backdrop in DC such a bill is likely to sail through Congress. If so, it would no doubt be taken as a staggering affront by Beijing. Historians will note it is precisely the kind of red-line mutual defence commitments that we saw pre-1914 and 1939, and which either de-escalate geopolitical tensions, or take us towards people saying “It will be over by Christmas.”

 

Florida Rep. Ted Yoho

Meanwhile, Kanye West held his first campaign address in his run for president (which, contrary to some stories over the weekend, has not been halted) under the banner of The Birthday Party. The highlights of the event included #Ye stating that he wishes to “save the country” – which is something most voters can get behind; that “shooting guns is fun” and without that right the US could be “enslaved” by China or other countries – so clearly pro-Second Amendment; a move away from industrialisation back to agriculture as the industrial revolution is over – which seems timely as people flee big cities; that marijuana should not just be legal, but free; a precautionary note that he isn’t prepared to go against Big Pharma because “they would kill” him – so cynics might say he has a better grasp of US realpolitik than his critics claim; and the proposal that US new-borns should be given USD1m as, after all, “The money’s not even real, and didn’t we just stop all the jobs for six months?”. Kanye added the US and other wealthy countries should pay to implement the same scheme worldwide. I think we can conclude that is an argument for MMT(?) – and certainly a version that is going to see a whole lot more consumer spending ahead than if it funds corporate tax cuts and/or bailouts. Let’s see how goodwill, good for guns, going rural, free ganja and free government hand-outs with “not even real” money do in the presidential polls. Surprisingly well, I suspect.

As with the Winchester flower-arranging team, the line between parody and reality is wafer-thin at present, if it exists at all. So where does that leave “markets” this morning?

US 10-year yields are still around 0.62%, Germany’s at -0.45%, and the UK at 0.16%. No reflation really being priced in on a major scale where it’s being tried outside Europe on a larger scale than proposed within it.

Chinese stocks are up 2.5% at time of writing “because” even though the PBOC’s key one-year loan prime rate was left on hold at 3.85% today, as expected. Indeed, Bloomberg promises now that the wild state-led swing up and panic sate-led sell-off is out of the way, a smooth private-led bull-market is assured. Well, that’s a view, I suppose. Equities are, after all, apparently all about Keeping Calm and Going Up Regardless.

I would, however, point readers to the recent coverage on the Chinese housing market in the Wall Street Journal showing more is being invested in houses in China right now in both USD terms and as a % of GDP than was the case in the US before its housing bubble burst in 2008: and the largest increase in mortgage loans is to households holding more than two properties already, the majority of which sit empty and so generate a negative return. Kind of like some key bond yields, but with the additional problem of physical depreciation to match the current nominal price appreciation, and a shrinking Chinese demographic meaning that in the future there will be far fewer hoarders to sell the empty properties to. Who doesn’t want to get on an equity market based on an economy built on that kind of solid foundation?

In FX, the USD remains on the back foot. EUR in particular is at 1.1440 and rising due to the perceived success of the mega-summit. However, AUD is still hovering around the 0.70 level and GBP at 1.25, neither really breaking new ground. CNY is comfortably under 7 for now – but then again that’s a political signalling device and not a market as such. I suspect that USD is still likely to see another lurch higher at some point as risk swings back to off. And I don’t think we will have to wait until Christmas to see it.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

No deal spoiled by those “nasty frugal 4”

(zerohedge)

“Europe Is Being Blackmailed”: Scandal Erupts As EU Remains Deadlocked Over Critical Recovery Fund

It was supposed to be a “simple” European affair, where leading politicians sat down and agreed to spend all those hundreds of billions in debt that the ECB had agreed to monetize, thus providing a boost to their crashing economies. Alas, there is no such thing as “simple” in Europe, and after a third day of “marathon summit talks” – as the FT put it and for good reason as it is already the longest EU meeting since December 2000 – over Europe’s proposed €750BN response to the coronavirus pandemic on Sunday, the European Union once again failed to overcome gulfs that have split north and south, and east and west, and may send the Euro – which has soared in recent weeks – tumbling lower as without a finalized recovery fund Europe’s economy is set to disintegrate (even more).

The protracted summit in Brussels, which began on Friday morning, has laid bare deep differences over the size, design and conditions attached to a planned multibillion-euro package of loans and grants designed to revive Europe’s economy after months of hibernation.

Yet even the biggest skeptics expected that it would be concluded by Sunday night, alas as Bloomberg reports European Union efforts to agree on the stimulus package faltered late Sunday “as leaders were unable to reconcile differences over how much of the recovery fund should be distributed through grants versus low-interest loans.”

Sunday’s chaos was to be expected after the summit in Brussels was “suspended in acrimony” in the early hours of Saturday morning, after it became obvious just how stern resistance to handing out billions in grants would be.

One direct consequence of the impasse is that the total €750BN facility has already been cut to at most €650BN as European Council President Charles Michel floated a new proposal that would reduce the size of handouts to 400 billion euros, down from an original 500 billion euros, according to a Bloomberg source. meanwhile, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, joined by his Austrian, Danish and Swedish counterparts – known as the Frugal Four – rejected the new offer, and stood by a pledge to limit grants to 350 billion euros.

 

“Frugal Four”: Sebastian Kurz, chancellor of Austria, Mette Frederiksen, prime minister of Denmark, Mark Rutte, prime minister of the Netherlands and Stefan Lofven, prime minister of Sweden

The impasse is hardly a surprise, as the Covid pandemic has pitted a group of richer “frugal” member states — Austria, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands — against the likely biggest recipients of EU pandemic emergency funds. But leaders also clashed over how to police countries’ respect for the rule of law, with Hungary’s Viktor Orban facing off against western leaders over proposals to hardwire respect for fundamental rights into the recovery plan.

Meanwhile, the recently anti-frugal Germany, together with France, who have the backing of most of the bloc, are insistent that at least €400 billion of the package must be handouts in order to shield the fragile economies of southern Europe from the worst effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

And just as Germany was bashed by Europe’s Mediterranean states, now it is the Netherlands’ turn to become the most hated nation in Europe.  As the FT reported on Saturday quoting diplomats, “much of the ire at the summit table was directed at Mark Rutte. The Dutch prime minister’s insistence on a national veto over the spending of recovery money led to tensions with other capitals that boiled over during an ill-tempered late-evening dinner.”

The mood was summed up by a heated exchange over dinner when Boyko Borisov, the Bulgarian leader, accused Rutte of wanting to be “the police of Europe” by handing himself the right to decide if countries’ national reform plans were ambitious enough to justify EU financial support.

Rutte told journalists after the dinner that his demands left fellow leaders “more irritated” but insisted that all countries were “fighting for their view”.

Needless to say, the mood wasn’t any better by Sunday, when Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said that “Europe is being blackmailed,” as frustration with the Dutch-led group boiled over.

Still, despite the inability to find a consensus over the size of the stimulus package, there is still hope and talks continued into the evening.

Europe has long had a habit of getting “deals” done just milliseconds before the final deadline and this time is expected to follow along, especially since investors have already priced in a deal after a series of bold announcements in recent weeks, leaving leaders under intense pressure to bridge their differences before financial markets open on Monday. Yet as Bloomberg notes, “they’ve largely been going around in circles since talks began on Friday morning as they struggle to bridge the familiar fault lines between the richer North and the southern countries worst affected by the pandemic.”

“Ideally the agreement should be ambitious in terms of size and composition of the package, broadly along the lines of what has been proposed by the commission,” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in response to a question from Reuters. “It is better to agree on an ambitious facility even if it takes a bit more time.”

That said, one can’t really blame Rutte for refusing to drown future generations of Europeans in massive debt. In fact, one can argue that the “Frugal four” is the last bastion of fiscal conservatism anywhere in the world.

Rutte and his allies have been trying to water down the handouts that the highly indebted South sees as critical for shoring up its finances. While Saturday proved less bad-tempered and more constructive than Friday’s gathering, it was still difficult to discern much progress.

“Until now what we have seen is the commission, the president of the council and the majority of member states making an effort to come closer to four countries,” Portugal’s Antonio Costa said. “They also have to make some effort.”

The 27 leaders are meeting in person for the first time since February, when initial talks over the EU’s seven-year, 1 trillion-euro budget also ran into the buffers. Now, facing a devastated economy, “investors are looking to the group to muster a display of unity to maintain the rally in stocks” as Bloomberg puts it because just imagine an insane world where stocks … gasp… drop!

“The will to find a compromise should not make us renounce the legitimate ambitions which we must have,” Macron said Sunday. “In the coming hours we will see if the two are compatible.”

Meanwhile, in keeping with the European tradition of herding cats, the deliberations have proven to be a baptism of fire for Michel, the former Belgian Prime Minister, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who drew up the original plan. They only took up their jobs in December and have faced stinging criticism from governments over their handling of the pandemic response.

Merkel and Macron have been pressing for an agreement before the summer but haven’t yet been able to bring their weight to bear to force a result. The bloc’s two largest economies are seen as crucial power brokers and they were photographed sitting on a sunny terrace as they searched for a breakthrough.

“We’re entering the third day of talks and it certainly is the decisive one,” Merkel said on Sunday morning. “It’s possible there will be no agreement today.” And with just a few minutes left until Sunday becomes Monday, Merkel will likely be right.

* * *

Finally, here are some less then upbeat thoughts from Saxo’s Head of Macro Analysis, Christopher Dembik, who is right in concluding that this will represent another “missed opportunity for the EU to create a powerful solidarity instrument based on debt mutualisation that would be macro-significant and constitutes a strategic move towards completing the monetary union. It also shows how deep is the EU fragmentation.”

I have been following the EUCO meeting since it has started on Friday. Clearly, this is not Europe’s Hamilton moment, but this is a great telenovela !

PM X. Bettel has just announced he is leaving EUCO for Luxembourg to lead a government council on COVID-19. He is planning to come back to Brussels later tonight…

In other words, don’t expect any agreement to be reached in the coming hours.

The best case scenario is a foul compromise in the night…It is already the longest EUCO meeting since Nice in December 2000…

I see at least three main points of disagreements:

  • Over the rule of law (rift between East and West)
  • Over volumes of the EU recovery plan and governance (rift between North and South)
  • Over EU leadership (this meeting is also about the future balance of power in post-Brexit EU)

I acknowledge it is probably too early to jump to conclusions but I think it is safe to say that if we get a deal in the night or later on in July, the original proposal is likely to be watered down – which means that this is again a missed opportunity for the EU to create a powerful solidarity instrument based on debt mutualisation that would be macro-significant and constitutes a strategic move towards completing the monetary union. It also shows how deep is the EU fragmentation…

This is not what we have been dreaming of…

end

SPAIN/THE FRUGAL 4

The frugal 4 will have difficulty in granting money to Spain

(Daniel Lacalle)

Europe’s “Frugal” Countries Are Right

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

There is no solidarity without responsibility. The European Union Recovery Fund cannot be used as an excuse to perpetuate bloated political spending and create a transfer union where governments use taxpayers’ money to increase bureaucracy, because it would be the end of the European project. A union based on excess spending, debt and extractive policies would be destroyed in a few years. The strength of a unified group of countries comes from diversity and responsibility.

No one denies the challenges created by the Covid-19 crisis, but there are countries that have used the excuse of the pandemic to inflate political spending and now demand free money. The Spanish government has doubled the cost of government, maintained all the spending it increased during the growth period and increased the number of ministerial seats and advisors despite the crisis. Additionally, the government has approved a basic income plan that had no budget or fiscal space. There has been no management of costs whatsoever to allow budget room for automatic stabilizers, health, and unemployment costs. A government that increased the deficit in 2019 by 24% in a year of 2% GDP growth and record tax revenues has doubled the cost of government in the crisis and now demands no conditions or scrutiny from other member states.

Why would a serious government oppose a detailed scrutiny of the funds received? It should welcome it. Why would a government that calls itself reformist and states its commitment to budget stability reject any structural reform proposed by other member states? They should be implementing them now. Furthermore, why would a government that talks about an unprecedented emergency prefer to receive less funds than to accept the member states’ monitoring of grants? One could suspect that they are not aiming to use the funds in the most effective way.

These are important questions that need to be addressed in the European summit because this crisis cannot be solved if governments use the money of a recovery fund to perpetuate imbalances and squander resources for political purposes. If we want the EU to survive, it can only be based on competitiveness, trust and, most of all, credit responsibility.

If we want a united Europe we must listen more to the most dynamic countries and stop using the bureaucratic steamroller to turn all the member states into interventionist satellites.

The European Union faces a deep crisis. It cannot become a depression by using important funds that should boost competitiveness and strengthen the recovery to finance massive political transfer plans that serve as a political tool to keep bloated administration and political budgets.

The Spanish government has made serious mistakes in its objective of getting massive grants without conditionality.

The first one was not giving serious estimates of spending ceiling, deficit and debt for 2020 and not providing any for 2021 when Spain had already tested the patience of the European Commission in 2019 by missing an already revised deficit target in a period of record tax revenues.

The second mistake was assuming that Spain’s European partners were going to accept things that the Spanish government itself would not have accepted in different circumstances. Everyone knows that the government of Spain would have refused an unconditional fund if it had been only for another country, since it would mean a greater contribution to the EU budget, and a greater deficit for Spain. We know this because it was exactly the Spanish government’s position in the Greek crisis, when Prime Minister Zapatero stated that the Greek opposition parties should agree to the agenda of reforms in order to receive bailout funds (24th June 2011, La Vanguardia). It is easy to demand solidarity when you are the recipient of it.

Third mistake: It is not convenient to demand from the most responsible countries free money when the government goes to the negotiation table having missed the 2019 deficit target in a year of record tax revenues, with the largest deficit in the eurozone in 2020, being the only country that has not reduced non-essential expenses to accommodate the increase in health spending and with the most expensive government, with more ministers and higher officials in four decades.

The fourth error: It is also not easy to convince others to provide tens of billions of euros, unconditionally and with greater weight of subsidies when Spain has in the government coalition a party that has voted in Europe in favour of breaking the euro and whose leaders, including a vice president and two ministers, defended a massive default on the debt.

Podemos and Izquierda Unida voted on December 14, 2015 an amendment proposing “facilitating withdrawal mechanisms” from the monetary union and “an alternative plan for an orderly break-up of the euro area” and have never withdrawn or modified it.

The final and fifth mistake: The Spanish Government constantly repeats that the economy is recovering in a V-shape and that they will not cut any spending under any circumstance, just implement massive tax hikes that will erode competitiveness, growth, job creation, tax revenues and increase future deficit and debt. At the same time, they demand donations with no conditions.

Many Spanish and European citizens like me are more than happy to commit to a strong set of reforms to improve competitiveness and boost economic growth and jobs. We do not want funds to be squandered in political spending.

The failure to approve a no-condition all-grant recovery fund is not a European failure. It is the confirmation that the European project will only be strengthened if it becomes a union where solidarity is given with responsibility and where strength comes from the prudent management of so-called “frugal” – or rather, responsible – leaders.

There will be a Recovery Fund, it will have conditions and it will be good for all if it does. However, the Recovery Fund is not the solution for many European states’ structural problems. Structural reforms must be adopted to solve the long-term imbalances of European economies and conditionality should be viewed as a positive, not a negative. If countries want to show to the world that they are reliable partners committed to budgetary stability, reforms must be embraced, not rejected.

end
Finally:  late in the day, Europe nears agreement on a stimulus fund at E390 billion in grants.
(zerohedge)

Europe Nears Agreement on Stimulus Fund With €390BN In Grants

The European summit which started on Friday and continued into Monday, where top politicians were meant to agree on the composition of Europe’s recovery fund (originally proposed at €500BN in grants and €250BN in loans), was painfully, excruciatingly long, even by European standards, but it appears to have finally concluded, and following some rather heated and angry comments – mostly aimed at the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte who has emerged as Europe’s new paymaster now that Merkel has succumbed to MMT – we finally have a deal.

So what’s in it? As we previewed yesterday, instead of the €500BN in grants demanded by Italy and all the other deadbeat European states, and instead of the €350BN that the “Frugal Four” were willing to release, Europe has agreed on €390BN in total grants.

Here is the rest of the deal headlines, as summarized by Reuters:

  • LATEST PROPOSAL FOR EU LEADERS ON RECOVERY FUND: REPAYMENT OF THE TOTAL 750 BLN EURO BORROWING BY EU COMMISSION UNTIL DEC 31, 2058
  • LATEST PROPOSAL FOR EU LEADERS ON RECOVERY FUND: 70% OF ALL GRANTS TO BE COMMITTED IN 2021, 2022, REMAINING 30% IN 2023
  • GRANTS IN 2021 AND 20222 TO BE ALLOCATED ON THE BASIS OF, AMONG OTHERS, AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT IN A COUNTRY IN 2015-2019
  • IN 2023, UNEMPLOYMENT CRITERION FOR GRANT ALLOCATION IS TO BE REPLACED BY GDP FALL IN 2020-2021 -DOCUMENT
  • ASSESSMENT OF NATIONAL RECOVERY PLANS TO BE FINANCED BY THE EU RECOVERY MONEY WILL BE DONE BY EU MINISTERS VIA QUALIFIED MAJORITY, BASED ON A COMMISSION PROPOSAL
  • POSITIVE ASSESSMENT OF PAYMENT REQUESTS WILL BE SUBJECT TO MEETING RELEVANT MILESTONES AND TARGETS – DOCUMENT
  • EU GOVERNMENTS WILL HAVE TO SPEND 30% OF THE RECOVERY FUND MONEY ON MEETING TARGETS RELATED TO FIGHTING CLIMATE CHANGE – DOCUMENT
  • OVERALL AMOUNT OF THE EU’S NEXT LONG-TERM BUDGET FOR 2021-2027 IS TO BE 1.074 TRILLION EUROS -PROPOSAL DOCUMENT
  • EU MONEY FROM THE EU BUDGET AND RECOVERY FUND WILL BE LINKED TO GOVERNMENTS OBSERVING RULE OF LAW -DOCUMENT

All of the above is, of course, meaningless and the only thing that does matter is whether the ECB will keep monetizing all European debt issuance. The rest is just boring, very, very boring theater of the kind that Europe’s has perfected over the past two decades.

end
UK suspends Hong Kong extradition treaty
(zerohedge)

UK To Suspend HK Extradition Treaty As Beijing Warns “Don’t Dance To The Tune Of The Americans”

A day after China’s ambassador to the UK Liu Xiaoming warned Britain during a testy BBC interview that it must not “dance to the tune of the Americans,” London is said to be ready to move on suspending the UK’s own extradition treaty with Hong Kong, following Canada and Australia making the same move.

 

Hong Kong protest, file image: Reuters

As we detailed Sunday when Ambassador Liu was confronted with shocking video which appeared to show severe human rights violations targeting the minority Muslim Uighur population, the Chinese diplomat lashed out against talk of Britain taking measures which echo the Trump administration. “You have seen what happened between China and the United States,” he told the BBC. “They sanctioned Chinese officials; we sanctioned their senators, their officials. I do not want to see this tit-for-tat between China-U.S. happen in China-U.K. relations.”

“I think the U.K. should have its own independent foreign policy rather than dance to the tune of the Americans, like what happened to Huawei,” he said in the tense, confrontational interview during the Andrew Marr Show. And Bloomberg now reports following this exchange:

The next act is playing out Monday when Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab addresses Parliament. The top diplomat has dropped a heavy hint the U.K. will suspend its extradition treaty with Hong Kong, a former colony it handed back to China in 1997. Prime Minister Boris Johnson also weighed in on Monday ahead of Raab’s statement.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN//CORONAVIRUS

Rouhani comes clean and in a bombshell reveals that “25 million Iranians have been infected”.  It means it death rate is much higher than reported and its economy is in a deeper mess.

(zerohedge)

Rouhani Drops Coronavirus Bombshell: “25 Million Iranians Have Been Infected”

From the start of the coronavirus outbreak in Iran, which for a time had the second highest infection rate after China during the early phase of the global pandemic, it was widely believed that authorities there were severely downplaying the true number of cases. But it was also understood the country’s already hurting and strained health system would lack for testing and proper care, given also there was a world shortage of test kits.

President Hassan Rouhani on Saturday confirmed much of this prior skepticism toward Iran’s official case count. He dropped a bombshell statement which if true means Iran far surpasses America’s case count (at over 3.6 million), currently the most infected country in the world.

Rouhani said a whopping 25 million Iranians have likely been infected with the coronavirus, in the first such statement of its kind affirming that Iran’s true numbers are far higher than the official current figure of 271,606.

 

EPA/Iranian President’s office handout 

His office did admit, however, that his 25 million figure is an “estimated scenario”. If this estimate is anywhere near accurate, it would mean Iran infections alone would surpass the global total of over 14 million.

Given the Islamic Republic’s total population is at 80 million people, this would mean about 1 in 3 citizens in Iran have contracted the virus.

In his statement during a televised speech he further said 35 million are at risk of contracting the virus. He cited this as the rationale for rolling out new shutdown and restriction measures in Tehran and across the country.

He said, as cited in Reuters:

“Our estimate is that until now 25 million Iranians have been infected with this virus and about 14,000 have lost their dear lives,” Mr Rouhani said in the speech. “There is the possibility that between 30 and 35 million other people will be at risk.”

He said more than 200,000 people had been hospitalized and that the ministry expected that number to double in the coming months.

His new shutdown orders include a new one week lockdown on the Iranian capital and many other cities, which includes a ban on all public events and spaces where crowds gather, including schools, restaurants, pools and even religious functions.

This also includes lockdowns of 22 cities and towns especially areas in the hard-hit southwest of the country.

The Health Ministry currently reports a total of 13,979 deaths, but if actual COVID-19 total infections are really anywhere near 25 million, its likely the true death count is far higher as well.

end

Another blast at a central Iran power plan. Most likely Israel was the culprit

(zerohedge)

Blast Hits Power Plant In Central Iran Sunday As Mainstream Media Admits ‘It’s Likely Israel’

Yet another strange and unexplained explosion has rocked central Iran on Sundayreports state-owned Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).

Citing no injuries during the large explosion, it occurred at a power station in the city of Islamabad, which is in the central province of Isfahan.

At this point, the spate of ‘mystery’ blasts and fires which has damaged key military, nuclear, and industrial sites across Iran – especially in and around Tehran – is approaching a dozen in only the past month.

 

A separate, prior explosion in Iran over the weekend.

Like with many of the prior incidents, many of which were deadly, Iranian officials downplayed that it was potentially Israeli or US-backed sabotage on its facilities, saying it was likely caused by the erosion of a transformer.

Separately on Sunday, cellophane factory in northwest Iran erupted in fire. Video and images showed a huge cloud of smoke billowing from the site through the day as firefighters struggled to put it out.

Iran’s civil defense organization chief, Ghulam Reza Jalali, was cited in state media as saying Iran is not ruling out sabotage on the power plant either by internal opposition groups or externally supported entities.

To review, all of this comes after earlier this month an advanced centrifuge assembly plant at Iran’s Natanz nuclear site was destroyed in a mysterious fire which is increasingly being blamed on Israeli or US intelligence:

A former official suggested the blaze could have been an attempt to sabotage work at the plant, which has been involved in activities that breach an international nuclear deal.

On 26 June, an explosion occurred east of Tehran near the Parchin military and weapons development base that the authorities said was caused by a leak in a gas storage facility in an area outside the base.

Other recent incidents reported by Iranian news agencies include a fire at industrial complex where gas condensate storage tanks are sited, one at a petrochemical factory and an explosion in Tehran, the capital, which killed two people.

Mainstream media is also increasingly laying blame on an Israeli Mossad sabotage campaign, especially prior to the US presidential election, given concern that if Joe Biden takes the White House, Israel will be pressured to stop such sabotage campaigns possibly leading to war.

“Israel has long targeted nuclear programs in the Middle East in secret, open, and openly secret ways,” writes Vox. “Simply put, officials in Jerusalem worry Iran could more credibly threaten Israel’s existence if it had a nuclear weapon,” the report adds.

 

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/INDIA THE GLOBE

 

India’s Daily COVID-19 Tally Tops 40k For 1st Time As Worst-Hit US States See Promising Slowdown: Live Updates

Summary:

  • India suffers 40k+ new COVID cases in new record
  • Global death toll tops 600k
  • Cases top 14.5 million
  • China reports 16 new cases
  • Victoria outbreak could take “weeks” to subside
  • Pfizer reports incremental vaccine results
  • Tokyo confirms 168 new infections

* * *

Globally, the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths surpassed 600,000 on Monday, while the number of confirmed cases topped 14.5 million over the weekend.

The world saw two consecutive daily record tallies over the weekend, as the pandemic continues to intensify in the US, India, Brazil and elsewhere.

In the US, daily deaths saw a promising pullback yesterday.

As deaths and hospitalizations creeped higher over the weekend and last week, the number of new cases in the four worst-hit states have climbed. Most notably, Texas reported a promising slowdown just last night, even as LA Mayor Eric Garcetti warns that his city is on the verge of another shutdown.

For the first time, India reported more than 40k new cases of COVID-19 on Monday, a new daily record. Exactly 40,425 cases were reported on Monday, which brought the total in the world’s second-most-populous country to more than 1.1 million. The number of confirmed deaths has climbed to 27,497, up 681 since Sunday morning.

In Japan, Tokyo confirmed 168 new infections, according to Nikkei, down from 188 a day earlier. Tokyo’s metropolitan government raised its COVID-19 alert to the highest level out of four last week, and has urged workers who can to stay home. In South Korea, 26 new cases were confirmed on Monday, down from 34 a day ago. Total infections reached 13,771, with 296 deaths.

After suffering more than 100 new cases in a day – a new record – over the weekend, Hong Kong reported just 73 new coronavirus cases on Monday, including 66 that were locally transmitted, as sweeping new restrictions imposed by Chief Executive Carrie Lam took effect.

The city reported more than 100 cases on Sunday, a record, as Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced that nonessential civil servants must work from home.

Melbourne’s surge in COVID-19 cases over the past month could take “weeks” to subside despite a lockdown and other social distancing measures, according to Australia’s acting chief medical officer. Victoria state, where Melbourne is located, reported a daily record on Friday with 438 new cases. Numbers have cooled slightly since then. People in Melbourne must wear masks when leaving their homes, and could be fined $200 Australian dollars ($140) if they are caught outside without one.

As the world awaits the results of the Oxford University-Astrazeneca trial, which is expected to be published by the Lancet, a medical journal known for its early work on SARS-CoV-2, later on Monday. Pfizer reported some early results Monday morning, including the first T-cell response data.

  • PFIZER INC – T CELL CYTOKINE PROFILE SHOWS VACCINE ELICITED T CELLS EXHIBIT A TH1 PHENOTYPE, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANTIVIRAL PROPERTIES
  • PFIZER – BNT162B1 INDUCED ANTIBODIES HAD BROADLY NEUTRALIZING ACTIVITY IN PSEUDOVIRUS NEUTRALIZATION ASSAYS ACROSS PANEL OF 16 SARS-COV-2 RBD VARIANTS

The data “supports and expands” on previously published results, marking the news as largely incremental.

Meanwhile, earlier, Scott Gottlieb focused his daily commentary on CNBC on the lessons we’ve learned about pandemic preparedness, repudiating the narrative pressed by Democrats who have blamed Trump for ‘dismantling’ an Obama-era preparedness office.

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1459 UP .0045 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.09 UP 0.199 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2637   DOWN   0.0096  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3564 UP .0002 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 45 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1459 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 100.02 POINTS OR 3.11% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 31.18 POINTS OR 0.12%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,52%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 31.18 POINTS OR 0.12%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 100.02 POINTS OR 3.11%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 52% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 21.06  POINTS OR 0.09%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1814.05

silver:$19.53-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.61% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.31 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 95.76 DOWN 18 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.36% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 03%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.36%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,09 DOWN 9 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 76 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.46% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.55% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1442  UP     .0028 or 28 basis points

USA/Japan: 107.19 UP .299 OR YEN DOWN 30  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2654 UP .01134 POUND UP 113  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 31 basis points to 1.3531

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.98791    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.98805  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.8564 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.03%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 0.62 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.31 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.81 DOWN 13  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 28.78  0.46%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 23.76 POINTS OR .47%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 127.31 POINTS 0.99%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 37.60 POINTS or 0.51%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 202.09 POINTS OR 0.99%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 40.67 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 43.15 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    71.43  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.44 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 44 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.46 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  40.69//

 

 

BRENT :  43/22

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.61..down 2 basis points.

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.31 down 2 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1448 ( UP 34   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.28 UP .392 (YEN UP 39 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.82 DOWN 0 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2658 UP 117  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.8563

 

 

the Russian rouble 71.38   UP 0.50 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 50 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3536 UP 27 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.46%

 

The Dow closed UP 8.92 POINTS OR 0.03%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 263.90 POINTS OR 2.51%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  24.48 CLOSED DOWN 1.19

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.271%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Silver Soars As Turbocharged-Tech Sends “Greed’ To Record High

SSDD!! More vacuous vaccine headlines and a spurious tech stocks upgrade sent a message to the bears (for today)…

After a brief pause at the end of last week, buying big tech stocks is back on the agenda, with Nasdaq massively outperforming today…(NOTE how linear today’s rally was)

 

Source: Bloomberg

And as Nasdaq surged, Small caps underperformed, reversing much of last week’s “reversal”

Source: Bloomberg

This has sent Bloomberg’s Fear-Greed indicator to its highest ever – above March 2000’s previous peak – and as @C_Barraud notes that these highs contrasted with a plunge in March that produced record weekly lows, surpassing those in December 2018 and May 2000.

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in tech was sparked by a Goldman and Jefferies upgrade for AMZN…

 

Source: Bloomberg

…erasing FANG stocks’ losses from Friday… (despite Goldman warning that all the big tech valuations are massively expensive)

Source: Bloomberg

And TSLA back to its old tricks…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields ended the day marginally lower but bonds were sold from

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury vol has tumbled near record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dropped back to its recent range lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto weakened into the cash equity close today but held gains barely from Friday…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all generally higher on the day with silver dramatically outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver futures topped $20 for the first time since Sept 2016…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, just saying…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Class 8 orders for trucks on a dead cat bounce just 2 months after hitting their lowest levels in 25 years.

(zerohedge)

Class 8 Orders ‘Dead Cat Bounce’ 2 Months After Hitting Their Lowest Level In 25 Years

Class 8 trucking orders – often seen as a gauge of how the U.S. production economy is faring, have been brutalized for almost all of 2020 so far due to the ongoing pandemic. But June’s data appears to suggest a slight respite in orders, despite crashing retail sales, even though we’re not quite certain that it’s going to carry into the second half of the year.

Regardless, June is traditionally a tough month for Class 8 orders and the industry (and its analysts) are optimistic.

Final Class 8 truck data for June has been released and retail sales were down 41% YoY to 17,055 units. Orders were up 23.2% for the month, marking a small bounce back for the industry.

This comes after two incredible poor months that we highlighted (ZH Class 8 report AprilZH Class 8 report May) where orders hit their lowest level in 25 years. In May, new orders “recovered” slightly to a dismal 6,687 number before taking off this June.

Regardless, Class 8 orders remain down 24.7% YTD, mostly as a result of a continued lagging economy and pressured supply chain due to the coronavirus pandemic. In the first half of 2020, 65,814 trucks were ordered, compared with 87,466 in the first half of 2019. 

Retail sales are also lagging YTD, still down 39%, according to data from JP Morgan. Builds have appears to make somewhat of a V-shape recovery, but were down 39% YoY in June and have fallen 70% in Q2. Builds remain down 52% year to date. 

But that hasn’t stopped the industry’s perpetually bullish analysts, who weigh in on the numbers every month and – somehow – can find the positive in almost the most dismal of reports.

Don Ake, FTR’s vice president of Commercial Vehicles said: “The Class 8 market is on the slow, steady recovery that matches our forecast. It is also encouraging that fleets are showing enough confidence in the economy to begin placing some viable orders. The trend should continue, but a significant increase is not expected until October when the big fleets begin placing orders for 2021 delivery.”

He continued: “June’s order activity is good news, after last month’s disappointing number. We expected orders to average around 10,000 units for a few months. Now they have averaged 11,000 for the past two months.”

Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst commented: “North American Class 8 net orders were up against an easy year-ago comparison, when orders were under pressure from still large backlogs and rising equipment overcapacity.” 

ISM New Orders Index posted its strongest jump on record (up 24.6pts MoM) to 56.4 in June, up 11.7% YoY to its highest level since January 2019, JP Morgan noted.

JP Morgan is still, however, forecasting Class 8 builds of ~165,000 (down 52%) for the year.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Republicans going for a payroll tax deferral and direct payments. The Dems oppose the payroll tax cut.

(zeorhedge)

GOP Stimulus Bill To Include Payroll Tax ‘Deferral’ And Direct Payments, Reduced Unemployment Boost

A new pandemic relief bill being drafted by Senate Republicans and the White House would include a payroll tax ‘deferral’, as well as another round of direct payments to individual Americans – potentially at the same $1,200 level as the previous stimulus in the Cares Act.

According to the Washington Post, the payroll tax deferral is in lieu of an outright cut – which keeps down the technical cost of the overall bill, but could also be waived entirely by lawmakers at a later date.

“It’s been proven to be successful and it’s a big saving for the people. It’s a tremendous saving and an incentive for companies to hire their workers back and to keep their workers,” Trump said of the payroll tax relief, following a Monday meeting in the Oval Office which included Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

The payroll tax to me is very important,” Trump added of the 7.65% tax paid by employers and employees which funds Social Security and Medicare.

Mnuchin, meanwhile, “confirmed Republicans plan to reduce the size of a $600-per-week enhanced unemployment benefit approved in March, which will begin running out for millions of Americans later this week,” according to the Post, which notes that Republicans have argued that many workers are making more thanks to the enhanced unemployment benefits than they were while employed.

“We’re going to make sure that we don’t pay people more money to stay at home than go to work, we want to make sure that people who can go to work safely can do so,” said Mnuchin. “We’ll have tax credits that incentivize businesses to bring people back to work, will have tax credits for [personal protective equipment] for safe work environments.”

On Tuesday, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows will be meeting with the full Senate GOP conference at their weekly policy lunch in order to review the proposal.

“We don’t need an epidemic of lawsuits.”

Developing…

 

end

This is a biggy!! The largest owner of properties in the uSA CBL is set to file for bankruptcy protection. Our Robin Hood traders are again going to be left with a bagful of nothing.

(zerohedge)

20,000 Robinhood Traders Are In For Rude Surprise As CBL Prepares To File Chapter 11

Bloomberg reports mall operator CBL & Associates Properties Inc. is preparing to file for bankruptcy. The headline hit after hours on Friday, sinking shares by at least 20%.

Sources told Bloomberg the company “has been negotiating with its lenders in an effort to enter Chapter 11 with a consensual restructuring agreement in place…the plans aren’t final, and elements could change.”

CBL’s portfolio has 108 properties totaling 68.2 million square feet across 26 states. Many of the properties are classified as “Class B malls,” supported by a middle-market customer base that has been crushed by the virus-induced recession.

CBL fired a warning shot on June 5 and said tenants across 108 of its properties paid just 27% of April’s rent. The loss of rental income forced the mall operator to skip interest payments due on $3 billion in debt. On July 16, it entered forbearance agreements with debt-holders concerning 2023 and 2026 notes.

CBL bonds maturing in 2023 traded a bid/ask around 24.6 to 25.4 cents on Friday, according to the latest bond quotes via Refinitiv.

When CBL files, it would mark the largest commercial real estate bankruptcy of the pandemic. Thousands of stores are closing this year, further accelerating retail apocalypse, expected to be a record year.

Meanwhile, Robinhood daytraders, with no concern about the unprecedented surge in new CMBS delinquencies, have been panic buying CBL shares. From the start of lockdowns (mid-March), new account holdings surged from 8,000 to more than 20,000 on Friday, a 1.5x increase in four months.

Come Monday morning, thousands of Robinhood traders who panic bought, yet another bankrupt company, are going to be transformed into instant bagholders.

end

This is a must read as Stockman details beautifully where the uSA is standing economically

(David Stockman/ContraCorner)

“We’re Going To Hell In A Handbasket” – David Stockman Slams Washington’s “Clown Brigade”

Authored by David Stockman of Contra Corner blog,

The eruption of government red ink literally defies imagination. The deficit figure topped $863 billion during the month of June alone.

Indeed, the number is so massive that it’s hard to put it in context. But consider this: When your author joined the Reagan campaign in the summer of 1980, the public debt was also $863 billion and it had taken 192 years and 39 presidents to get there.

So during the last 30 days, the clown brigade which passes for a government in Washington has actually borrowed nearly two centuries worth of debt!

Indeed, the numbers for June are so bad as to give ugly an entirely new definition:

  • June receipts of $242 billion were down by 28% or-$92 billion from last year;
  • June outlays totaled $1.105 trillion, representing a +$713 billion or 182% increase from last year;
  • Leading the charge was SBA outlays of $511 billion compared to $80 million last year— and, yes, that’s the PPP boondoggle and it amounts to a 4,400% gain;
  • Not far behind was unemployment benefits at $116 billion compared to $2 billion last year;
  • There was also a $70 billion increase in the cost of student loans owing to CARES act repayment deferrals and an adjustment for massively higher student loan defaults in the future than had been previously assumed;
  • And the red ink total for June, which is usually a low deficit month due to estimated tax payments, rose from $8 billion last year to the aforementioned $863 billion.

But the issue is far more than the humongous numbers. There is now at work a trifecta of baleful forces that is literally destroying any semblance of fiscal discipline in Washington.

The first of these, of course, is the Fed. It has so completely and recklessly monetized the ballooning public debt that Washington officialdom and politicians are getting zero honest price signals from the bond market. In any practical sense the Brobdingnagian amounts of money they are borrowing is perceived as free, and rightly so.

After all, as of this morning, 90-day, 2-year and 10-year money costs the Treasury only 0.14%, 0.17% and 0.58%, respectively.

Secondly, there has been what amounts to a highly improbable “doctors plot” to take down the already debt-entombed US economy with an unprecedented regime of quarantines, economic locksdowns and drastic social regimentation in response to a virus that is really only an abnormal medical threat to the old and infirm.

The fact that the lockdowns are so wildly disproportionate to the 5%-of-population threat posed by the Covid is attributable to the rampant Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) among the Dems, the MSM and the permanent Washington ruling class. They are so rabid with TDS that they have mindlessly cheered on the health care apparatchiks, mayors and governors in a blunderbuss attack on the US economy that pales all prior recessions in severity.

And, thirdly, the elected politicians—beginning with the Donald—have stood idly by during this economy-wrecking campaign, deluded by the belief that Washington has the responsibility and means to fund a virtual make-whole for every worker and business in America that has suffered a loss of income and cash flow.

That is to say, America has fallen under the dictatorship of an unaccountable and unconstitutional Virus Patrol. But there has been almost zero political resistance to its insanities such as closing schools, bars, gyms and air travel because the fiscally incontinent policy-makers of Washington have stood up multi-trillion coast-to-coast soup-lines to ameliorate the damage and pain.

But for crying out loud, this jerry-built trifecta of madness cannot possibly be sustained. Your can’t print $3 trillion of fiat credit in just four months as the Fed has done and get away with it. Nor can you spend $7 trillion and collect only $3 trillion as Uncle Sam will do this year and not expect dire repercussions down the road.

And, for that matter, you can’t run-up the NASDAQ to an all-time high in the face of this fiscal, monetary and economic mayhem, and on the strength of just ten stocks, and not expect that a thundering financial collapse lies just around the corner.

Indeed, as David Rosenberg pointed out this AM, the top 10 stocks in the NASDAQ Composite (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Google, Nvidia, Tesla, Intel, Netflix, Adobe) now make up 48% of the index’s market cap, and an incredible 58% of the NASDAQ 100.

So what you see in the chart below is an accident waiting to happen. The NASDAQ’s all-time high is being propped up by a massive bubble in a few stocks, while what is happening down below is more like a foretaste of things to come. To wit-

  • The equal-weight S&P 500 is at the same level today as December 18th, 2017;
  • The NYSE Composite is at same level as in Sept. 15th, 2017;
  • The Russell 2000 small cap index is where it was on July 14th, 2017;

More crazy still, during the three years in which the index of America’s main street small and mid-cap stocks has gone nowhere, the total return (price plus coupon) on the 30-year UST has been a staggering 43%; and in the case of the zero-coupon 30-year UST, the return has been 56%.

Now that’s just nuts. Given the egregious fiscal breakdown and the near $80 trillion of public and private debt weighing down upon the nation’s faltering economy, owners of long-term bonds should be facing severe capital losses, not insanely massive capital gains on top of essentially non-existent coupons.

Likewise, you have Tesla trading at 288X its pittance of free cash flow and valued more highly than Toyota for the same reason that bond prices are soaring irrationally: Namely, unhinged speculation on Wall Street that is being fueled by grotesque infusions of central bank liquidity.

That’s also why in the face of a quarter in which GDP is slated to plunge by upwards of 40%, the Dow booked its best quarter in 33 years; the S&P 500 posted its best performance since 1998.; and the NASDAQ had its biggest increase since 1999—jumping 39 percent in just three months.

Indeed, the chart below is truly grotesque by any other name. The 4-week moving average of continuing unemployment claims now stands at 19 million or at 6.1X its level at the start of 2013, when the NASDAQ composite stood at just 3,000.

Today it closed at 10,617 or 254% higher and because, why?

  • Netflix is worth $241 billion or 111X net income or an infinite multiple of free cash flow, of which it has generated negative $11 billion during the last 5 years?
  • Amazon is worth $1.600 trillion or 151X net income and 83X free cash flow?
  • Facebook is worth $700 billion or 33X net income and 30X free cash flow—after two years of low single digit growth and in the face of the biggest impending plunge in advertising revenue in modern times?;
  • NVIDIA is worth $258 billion or 108X net income and 60X free cash flow?
  • Microsoft is worth $1.622 trillion or 35X net income–even though its earnings growth rate over the last 8 years has been just 6.5% per annum?
  • Apple is worth $1.664 trillion or 29X net income—even though its earnings have grown by just 4.5% per annum since 2012?
  • Google is worth $1.053 trillion—even though its earnings too have plateaued during the last two years and it is now facing a brutal decline in advertising spending?

In fact, the above chart actually understates the case because—surprise—the financial press doesn’t even report the correct figures for the number of US workers on the unemployment dole at the present time.

In addition to the 18.56 million of continuing claims reported yesterday under the standard state programs, there is another 14.36 million of so-called uncovered employees—-gig workers, free lancers, temp agency contractors etc.—now getting the Federal pandemic unemployment assistance benefit (PUA) . That means at the time we are supposed to be sharply ascending the other side of the “V”, there are actually 32.92 million workers lounging at home and collecting unemployment benefits in lieu of a paycheck.

As Wolf Richter recently demonstrated, there are now nearly 2X more workers getting UI checks than the 17.75 million unemployed workers the BLS reported for June.

That’s right. We have repeatedly reminded that the BLS does not arrive at its jobs and unemployment numbers by counting; it generates them by modeling, and when the economy is at a big inflection point, to say nothing of the unprecedented turmoil of the moment, its models are not worth the digital ink they are printed on.

Stated differently, it do make a difference that 15.2 million workers no longer on the job are not accounted for in the BLS ballyhooed monthly jobs report.

In short, the whole shebang is on a razor’s edge and there is nothing much immediately ahead except opportunities for the whole system to go tilt.

For instance, the SBA payroll protection program (PPP), which has already shelled out an incredible $521 billion to nearly 5 million US businesses will expire next month, while the $600 per week Federal supplement to average state UI checks of $500 per week will expire at the end of July.

What this means is that the whole economy is floating on a massive air mattress of government subsidies and transfer payments which could suddenly evaporate if Washington becomes politically paralyzed; and, in any event, can’t be sustained much longer as a matter of sheer fiscal math.

For want of doubt, here again is the craziest upheaval of income flows to the household sector in all of economic history. To wit, paychecks (brown line) are now running $524 billion below year ago levels, while transfer payments (purple line) are running an incredible $2.13 trillion higher.

Self-evidently, without this massive injection of borrowed money, which in turn was 100% monetized by the Federal Reserve, household spending and confidence would have imploded weeks ago. In fact, it is only the likes of June’s $863 budget deficit that has prevented the outbreak of economic and social chaos.

So what happens next?

We’d say nothing very pleasant. Congress will be in recess until the last week of July, and the two parties have not yet begun to reconcile the Everything Bailout 4.0 passed by the House Dems with a price tag of $3.0 trillion and the GOP/White House position, where the Great Capitulator, Senate Leader McConnell, has drawn a wobbly line in the sand at just another, well, $1.0 trillion (on top of the $3.3 trillion that has already been approved).

But consider just one of the thorny issues that will take until at least Labor Day to solve, if at all. Namely, extension of the greatest incentive for unemployment ever conceived in the form of the $600 per week Federal supplement to regular state UI benefits.

Together, the state plus Federal dole now amounts on average to a $57,000 wage at annualized rates.

Of course, there are 80 million jobs in America or 50% of the total which pay under $45,000 per year—so when we say perverse moral hazard that’s exactly what we mean.

Apparently, Stevie Mnuchin, the Donald’s hapless “watchdog” at the US Treasury has finally sobered-up, recently insisting that the impending Everything Bailout 4.0 must ” limit the UI top up”:

Any extension would ensure that jobless benefits would be “no more than 100%” of what
workers were earning, Mnuchin said.

“We knew there was a problem with enhanced unemployment in that certain cases people
were paid more than they made in their jobs,” he said. “We’ll fix that and we’ll figure
out an extension to it that works for companies and works for those people who will still
be unemployed.”

Well, goodness me, yes.

A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper by researchers at the University of
Chicago found that

  •  68% of unemployed workers who are eligible for unemployment insurance will get
  • benefits exceeding their lost earnings;
  •  One out of five eligible jobless workers will get at least double their lost earnings;
  •  The overall median replacement rate of the enhanced benefits is 134%.

Then you have the collapse of state and local revenues, thank you Lockdown Nation, where the Dems want to toss $1 trillion of money Uncle Sam doesn’t have into the kitty to help tide them over and preserve the mostly higher paying 18 million jobs dependent on state and local payrolls.

The run-rate of state and local receipts was $1.907 trillion during Q1 2020, but is slated to drop by at least 20% or $400 billion during the current quarter, and continue to bleed profusely for many more quarters to follow. Again, the Red State/Blue State mud-wrestling match over the amount of and allocation formula for the proposed Federal bailout will be one for the ages, which also won’t make the finish line by Labor day or even Election day.

And then comes a food fight over extending the rottenest boondoggle ever conceived in Washington—-the PPP programs that has already showered helicopter money on 4.9 million businesses. Notable recipients include:

  • The law firm Boies Schiller Flexner, whose chairman David Boies has represented powerful clients such as former Vice President Al Gore and Harvey Weinstein, among notorious others, received between $5 million and $10 million;
  • Several million went to Kanye West’s clothing brand, Yeezy, and Grover Norquist’s anti- tax group, Americans for Tax Reform.
  • Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao’s family’s business, Foremost Maritime, got a loan valued at between $350,000 and $1 million. Chao is the wife of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
  • Perdue Inc., a trucking company co-founded by Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, was approved for $150,000 to $350,000 in loan money.
  • Restaurant chains P.F. Chang’s China Bistro and Chop’t received aid of between $5 million and $10 million.
  • TGI Fridays, which is backed by private equity firm TriArtisan Capital Advisors, received at least $5 million.
  • The Archdiocese of New York got a loan valued at between $5 million and $10 million, while the Catholic Charities of the Archdioceses of San Francisco, Washington, D.C., New Orleans and Boston, among others, all received assistance valued at more than $2 million.
  • The Ayn Rand Institute, named for the objectivist writer cited as an influence on libertarian thought, was approved for $350,000 to $ 1 million.
  • Joseph Kushner Hebrew Academy in New Jersey, which is named after Trump’s son-in- law and advisor Jared Kushner’s grandfather, got a loan in the range of $1 million to $2 million. Jared Kushner’s parents’ family foundation supports the school, NBC News reported.
  • Niche movie theater chain Alamo Drafthouse received a loan of at least $5 million. Theaters have been closed while new film releases have been delayed or pushed to streaming platforms.
  • Numerous news organizations received PPP loans: Forbes Media got at least $5 million; The Washington Times got at least $1 million; The Washingtonian got at least $350,000; The Daily Caller received at least $350,000 and The Daily Caller News Foundation got at least $150,000; The American Prospect received at least $150,000.
  • Political organizations also received loans: The Ohio Democratic Party got at least $150,000 and the Florida Democratic Party Building Fund got at least $350,000, while the Women’s National Republican Club of New York got at least $350,000, the Black Republican Caucus in Florida got at least $150,000.

In short, this thing smells so bad that our Capitol Hill legislators will have to wear oxygen masks to the negotiating table, and not because of the Covid.

And yet, and yet, the robo-machines and boys and girls on Wall Street keep buying the dip because, apparently, all will be well if the Fed just keeps on printing, Washington keeps on borrowing and speculators keep on pretending that the Virus Patrol is actually battling the Covid.

We’ll take the unders. Big Tim

 

end

As America’s Economic Suffering Grows, The Calls For More Socialism Grow Louder

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

It is during moments of great crisis that we find out who we really are, and that is why the governmental response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been so heartbreaking.  Instead of rallying around our founding principles, Democrats and Republicans have both gravitated toward “solutions” that are in the exact opposite direction.  Bigger government programs, more government tyranny and huge socialist transfer payments have all been greatly welcomed by the mainstream media and by large portions of the U.S. population, and at the same time very few voices are warning us that these measures are eroding our fundamental rights, exploding the size of our national debt and setting extremely dangerous precedents for the future.

Once people become accustomed to receiving money directly from the federal government, it is exceedingly difficult to ever cut those payments off.  If you think back through our history, it is difficult to name a single major transfer payment program that was ever rolled back.  Over time, our federal government has just gotten bigger and bigger and bigger, and it is now the biggest government that anyone has ever seen in the history of the entire planet.

Yes, tens of millions of Americans are deeply hurting right now.  Over the past 17 weeks, a total of 51.3 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits, and that represents the most dramatic spike in unemployment that the U.S. has ever experienced.

And since most Americans were just barely scraping by financially coming into this year, we are facing a future in which millions upon millions of our fellow citizens aren’t going to be able to pay their bills.  In a recent article, USA Today featured the tragic story of a 35-year-old hair stylist named Chelsie Caudle…

The mother of two has run into delays applying for unemployment and food stamps in Portland, Oregon, after Grace Salon, a hair salon that specializes in cutting and coloring, was forced to shutter in March when the coronavirus pandemic hit.

Caudle, who is self-employed, sublet a spot at Grace Salon to run her own business called Benjamin LLC. But with no income coming in for months, bills piled up, making it hard for her to afford groceries for her family, she says.

I think that most of us can identify with what she is going through, because nearly all of us have experienced the same thing at some point in our lives.

In order to relieve the suffering of those that found themselves suddenly unemployed, Congress approved $600 a week unemployment bonuses as part of the 2.2 trillion dollar CARES Act that it passed in March

The $600 weekly payments from the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program were put in place as part of the $2.2 trillion CARES Act that Congress passed in late March amid the coronavirus pandemic. Americans who are eligible for unemployment insurance receive an extra $600 on top of what they normally claim under their state’s benefits. Yet this boost is scheduled to end for all states except New York, on Saturday July 25, 2020. New York’s end date is Sunday, July 26, according to the Department of Labor.

For a while, it sounded like the Republicans were actually against extending the extra unemployment benefits, but now it appears that they just hope to reduce them a bit

On Sunday, The Washington Post reported that in light of the enhanced $600 per week federal unemployment benefits poised to run out in less than a week, the White House and top Senate Republicans are considering measures including extending a smaller-scale weekly federal enhanced unemployment benefit of $200 or $400 per week or means-testing future federal unemployment benefits.

In the end, the Republican socialists in Congress will probably fold like a 20 dollar suit like they always do, and so the Democratic socialists in Congress will likely end up with most (or all) of what they want in this next “stimulus bill”.

And very few people will even talk about the fact that this new “stimulus bill” will steal trillions of more dollars from future generations of Americans.

This is what socialism always does.  It steals money from one group and gives it to another.

In our case, we have been stealing from future generations for so long that we have absolutely obliterated the bright future that they were supposed to have.

Meanwhile, the calls for “a second stimulus check” are becoming louder as well.

In fact, one recent survey found that a lot of Americans want the next “stimulus check” to be even bigger than the last one

More than two-thirds of Americans say they still need a second stimulus check from the government to help make ends meet, according to recent data from tax preparer Jackson Hewitt. And about a third of that group said the $1,200 checks needed to be more than the previous round. Only about a quarter of them say they wouldn’t need another emergency payment.

When the first round of stimulus checks went out, I warned that this was setting a very dangerous precedent and that people would soon want more checks, and I was precisely correct.

There are a lot of good conservatives out there that felt guilty about taking the first round of stimulus checks because they recognized that the checks represented a giant step toward socialism.

I can definitely understand why people were feeling conflicted, but my advice is to accept whatever checks the government sends to you.

Because at this point what we are facing is a battle for survival.  We are entering a truly nightmarish chapter in American history, and our entire system is going to fail.  If a little bit of extra money can help you and your family get prepared for what is coming, that is a good thing.

However, it is also appropriate to mourn for what has been lost.  At one time, America was a beacon of hope in a world where billions were living under socialist tyranny.  But now we are racing toward full-blown socialism at a pace that is absolutely breathtaking, and nearly all of our politicians have completely abandoned our founding principles.

END

Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have been decimated by the Covid 19 with respect to cargoes.  Last month double digit cargo decline! No V shaped recovery here.

(zerohedge)

COVID & Trade War Crush L.A., Long Beach Ports In First Half 

The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are still dormant, recording double-digit cargo declines last month, ending the first half significantly lower when compared with the same period in 2019, reported Los Angeles Daily News.

Both ports are some of the busiest seaports in the US. The Port of Los Angeles reported this week that cargo in June fell 9.6% compared to June 2019. The Port of Long Beach reported an 11.1% decline in cargo last month when compared to the same period last year.

The plunge in containerized volume at both ports is due to coronavirus pandemic crashing the global economy with world trade sinking in the last several months. Even before that, global trade volumes were waning as the US and China were engaged in a fierce trade war.

Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, warned  Wednesday containerized volumes at the port could plunge 15% this year when compared with all of 2019.

Seroka said the port is operating well below capacity at around 80%-85%, adding that, slumping trade flows will profoundly impact dock jobs.

“Less cargo means fewer jobs here at America’s port and we’re watching this very closely,” he said. “Our labor shift work for our longshore groups is down 18% compared to the same period in 2019.

“Now, the double-hit is in full focus,” Seroka added, “with levels of cargo volumes not seen since the (2008) Great Recession.”

Imports at the Port of Los Angeles fell 13.7% for the first half compared to last year, and down 7% in June compared with the same month the previous year. Exports plunged 18% in the first half and 21% in June.

Last week, Mario Cordero, the Long Beach port’s executive director, said, “canceled sailings continued to rise at a rapid rate in the second quarter as ocean carriers adjusted their voyages to a decline in demand for imports during the national Covid-19 outbreak.”

Officials at both ports warned recessionary forces are damaging consumer spending, resulting in a reduction in products from overseas and further suggested containerized volumes could continue to decline through the second half.

“We’re seeing a miss on just about every season we cater to,” Seroka said of shipments. “The spring fashion season has come and gone without real impact, back to school will not be anywhere near what we’ve witnessed in the past. And the trade peak season that’s normally in August will be relatively flat simply because you and I are not out at the stores on a regular basis.”

Combined, both ports had 104 canceled sails in the first half, more than double the figure from 1H19.

Depressed containerized volumes at North America’s largest seaports tells us a lot about the broader economy and indicates there’s no V-shaped recovery in the cards this year.

end

This will go over well with our voters: this will drive out all the bankers etc our of New York

(zerohedge)

New York Democrats Want To Tax Stock Trades As State Revenues Plummet

New York Democrats seem hell bent on driving as many people out of the state as possible. Not only has Mayor Bill de Blasio essentially turned New York City into a demilitarized zone by pulling back on policing, but there are now talk about resurrecting the state’s tax on stock trades. It’s no wonder thousands of hedge fund managers are leaving the city for far more hospitable places like Florida.

Legislators could be prompted to make changes as the state loses approximately 20% of its revenue, which would leave a $61 billion deficit over four years according to Bloomberg. Progressive democrats “are on the ascent” in the state’s legislature while, at the same time, stock trading in the state is on the rise. As a result, the progressives smell blood, as taxing these trades could raise $13 billion per year and stop cuts to numerous government services.

Andrew Silverman, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst said: “If ever there was an opportune moment for New York to resurrect its stock transfer tax, it’s now. The state legislature is probably more amenable now than at any time in decades.” The stock transfer tax could drive revenue from outside of the state, as well, as it taxes trades that occur in New York, even if the person directing the trade is out of state.

About 100 members of the 213 members of the New York legislature signed a letter last month suggesting that the state consider raising taxes on the rich before it cuts spending. Democrats have also proposed raising taxes on billionaires and large corporations. There is currently a 100% rebate on the tax that has been in place since 1981 when the New York Stock Exchange threatened to leave New York.

We’re not sure why politicians think that couldn’t happen again. After all, they are asking for it.

The left’s argument for the tax is that in 2016, the wealthiest 10% of Americans owned 84% of stocks. The author of the study that determined this, Edward Wolff, said: “Every single significant exchange in the world has a financial transaction tax save one, which is Germany, and they’ve proposed it there. Is the London Stock Exchange out of business? Have they moved to Dublin?”

The proposed bill is arguing for a 1.25 cent tax on the sale of stock worth $5 or less and a tax of up to 5 cents for stock worth over $20 per share. The revenue would go to New York’s general fund for three years and then would go to infrastructure and the MTA.

The tax would (obviously) find heavy opposition from banks and Wall Street firms. Wall Street is already responsible for 17% of the state’s tax revenue and 181,200 jobs.

The risk of unintended consequences is not daunting Democrats: Freeman Klopott, a spokesman for Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo’s budget office, concluded: “In the digital age it would be even easier for transactions to simply be moved out of state to avoid the tax.”

What the democrats don’t seem to understand is that much of this legacy tax revenue – and the jobs that create it – could be at risk as they continue to push businesses out of the state with additional taxes. And what’s the point of a new tax when it is offset by a mass exodus of the the states’ biggest taxpayers, resulting in a far more dire fiscal outcome?

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Steele’s primary sub source was his own employee!!. Another document destroys a New York Times article on the Russiagate propaganda.

(zerohedge)

Declassified: Christopher Steele’s “Primary Sub-Source” Was His Own Employee; NYT Russiagate Propaganda Shredded By Strzok Comments

FBI documents declassified by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC) reveal that Christopher Steele’s “primary sub-source” for his infamous Clinton/DNC-funded dossier was a ‘non-Russian employee of Christopher Steele’s firm.’

Per Graham’s office:

  • The document reveals that the primary “source” of Steele’s election reporting was not some well-connected current or former Russian official, but a non-Russian based contract employee of Christopher Steele’s firm. Moreover, it demonstrates that the information that Steele’s primary source provided him was second and third-hand information and rumor at best.
  • Critically, the document shows that Steele’s “Primary Sub-source” disagreed with and was surprised by how information he gave Steele was then conveyed by Steele in the Steele dossier.

Meanwhile, a second document released by Graham absolutely shreds a New York Times article authored by Michael Schmidt, Mark Mazzetti, and Matt Apuzzo. Journalist Sharyl Attkisson details how comments made by former FBI agent Peter Strzok revealed the article, entitled “Trump Campaign Aides Had Repeated Contact With Russian Intelligence,” was absolute propaganda.

Via Sharylattkisson.com

Claim in NYT article: “Phone records and intercepted calls show that members of Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign and other Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election, according to four current and former American officials.”

Note by Strzok: “This statement is misleading and inaccurate as written. We have not seen evidence of any individuals in contact with Russians (both Governmental and non-Governmental” and “There is no known intel affiliation, and little if any [Government of Russia] affiliation[.] FBI investigation has shown past contact between [Trump campaign volunteer Carter] Page and the SVR [Service of the Russian Federation], but not during his association with the Trump campaign.”

Claim in NYT article: “…one of the advisers picked up on the [intercepted] calls was Paul Manafort, who was Mr. Trump’s campaign chairman for several months…”

Note by Strzok: “We are unaware of any calls with any Russian government official in which Manafort was a party.”

Claim in NYT article: “The FBI has obtained banking and travel records…”

Note by Strzok: “We do not yet have detailed banking records.”

Claim in NYT article: “Officials would not disclose many details, including what was discussed on the calls, and how many of Trump’s advisers were talking to the Russians.”

Note by Strzok: “Again, we are unaware of ANY Trump advisers engaging in conversations with Russian intel officials” and “Our coverage has not revealed contact between Russian intelligence officers and the Trump team.”

Claim in NYT article: “The F.B.I. asked the N.S.A. to collect as much information as possible about the Russian operatives on the phone calls…”

Note by Strzok: “If they did we are not aware of those communications.”

Claim in NYT article: “The FBI has closely examined at least four other people close to Mr. Trump… Carter Page… Roger Stone… and Mr. Flynn.”

Note by Strzok: “We have not investigated Roger Stone.”

Claim by NYT: “Senior F.B.I. officials believe… Christopher Steele… has a credible track record.”

Note by Strzok: “Recent interviews and investigation, however, reveal Steele may not be in a position to judge the reliability of subsource network.”

Claim by NYT: “The F.B.I.’s investigation into Mr. Manafort began last spring [2016].”

Note by Strzok: “This is inaccurate… our investigation of Manafort was opened in August 2016.”

Claim by NYT: “The bureau did not have enough evidence to obtain a warrant for a wiretap of Mr. Manafort’s communications, but it had the N.S.A. closely scrutinize the communications of Ukrainian officials he had met.”

Note by Strzok: “This is inaccurate…”

* * *

Will the New York Times correct their inaccurate reporting?

end

Trump Chief Of Staff: Indictments Expected From Durham Probe

Authored by Isabel van Brugen via The Epoch Times,

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said Sunday that he expects criminal charges to come out of U.S. Attorney John Durham’s investigation into the origins of the FBI’s counterintelligence Russia probe.

Meadows, who replaced Mick Mulvaney as President Donald Trump’s chief of staff in March, said during an appearance on Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures,” that based on what he’d seen, he expects federal prosecutor Durham will file criminal charges against people involved in the investigation into supposed Trump-Russia collusion that was said to have swayed the 2016 election.

The former House representative sat on the House Oversight Committee throughout former special counsel and former FBI head Robert Mueller’s probe into the alleged collusion. Mueller ultimately didn’t establish any such collusion.

“I think the American people expect indictments,” Meadows told host Maria Bartiromo.

“I know I expect indictments based on the evidence I’ve seen. [Senate Judiciary chairman] Lindsey Graham did a good job in getting that out. We know that they not only knew that there wasn’t a case, but they continued to investigate and spy—and yes, I use the word ‘spy’—on Trump campaign officials, and actually even doing things when this president was sworn in and after that, and doing it in an inappropriate manner.”

The White House chief of staff also said that he expects other damning documents will soon be made public.

“You’re going to see a couple of other documents come out in the coming days that will suggest that not only was the campaign spied on, but the FBI did not act appropriately as they were investigating,” Meadows continued. “It’s all starting to unravel, and I tell you, it’s time that people go to jail and people are indicted.”

Attorney General William Barr assigned Durham in early 2019 to investigate the origins of the FBI’s counterintelligence investigation of the Trump campaign and to assess whether the surveillance of Trump campaign associate Carter Page was free of improper motive. The probe was designated a formal criminal investigation later in 2019.

Durham could scrutinize the conduct of several current and former senior FBI officials during his investigation, including former Director James Comey, former Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, and former Deputy Assistant Director Peter Strzok. Those officials were involved in obtaining a warrant for surveillance on Page and deployed at least two spies to target Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos.

Barr had previously expressed concern over some of the information he had received so far from Durham about the probe, saying that he was “very troubled.” He said in May that he doesn’t expect Durham’s probe to result in criminal investigations into former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Joe Biden, based on the information he possessed at the time.

“It is stunning, and here’s the interesting thing: it’s not only that it wasn’t true, the problem is they knew it wasn’t true, and when you know something is not true and you continue the investigation, that’s collusion, that’s the kind of thing that we must stop, and that’s where we need to hold people accountable,” Meadows said.

His remarks came as Strzok, the former FBI head of counterintelligence operations, on Sunday tore apart a 2017 New York Times article that alleged the 2016 presidential campaign of Trump had contacts with Russian intelligence. Strzok criticized the article as inaccurate in multiple regards in a recently declassified internal document.

The Feb. 14, 2017, New York Times piece titled “Trump Campaign Aides Had Repeated Contact With Russian Intelligence” was said to rely on information from four unnamed “current and former American officials.”

“Phone records and intercepted calls show that members of Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign and other Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election,” the article said in its opening paragraph.

“This statement is misleading and inaccurate as written,” Strzok said, annotating the article with comments on how it squared with reality as he was portraying it (pdf). “We have not seen evidence of any individuals affiliated with the Trump team in contact with [Russian] IOs [intelligence officers].”

The document was released on July 17 by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), chair of the Senate judiciary committee.

end

Gunman Kills Son Of Federal Judge Recently Assigned To Epstein Case

When we first spotted headlines about a lone gunman’s lethal assault on the home of a federal judge in New Jersey, we feared this was just another example of how criminals have been emboldened by the nationwide backlash against law enforcement embodied by the ‘defund the police’ movement.

But that was before we learned that the judge targeted in the attack – Newark-based US federal judge Esther Salas – had been assigned to the Deutsche Bank/Epstein case just four days before the attack.

The shooting occurred Sunday night at around 5pmET. Salas 20-year-old son Daniel Anderl, a student, opened the door at the family home in North Brunswick after hearing the doorbell ring. The man outside appeared to be a FedEx employee, according to media reports.

Almost immediately, the gunman started blasting, shooting and killing Anderl, and badly wounding his father, Mark Anderl, 63, a prominent defense attorney in the area. Salas has reportedly received threats from time to time, but local press reported that Salas hadn’t received any threats recently.

Seated in Newark, Salas’ most high-profile cases recently involved the tax evasion prosecution of Joe Giudice, the husband of RHNJ star Theresa Giudice. She also spared a murderous gang leader from the death penalty over what she ruled was an intellectual disability that made him ineligible for capital punishment.

But Salas is now presided over an ongoing lawsuit brought by Deutsche Bank investors who claim the company made false and misleading statements about its AML policies while failing to monitor “high-risk” customers like sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. After all, how would Epstein have managed to run his international child-sex-trafficking ring without banks to move the money around for him.

The FBI revealed last night that it would be taking over the case.

Investigators said they’re looking into any connections to the Epstein/DB lawsuit, while also investigating any connections to her husband’s work as a criminal defense attorney.

The FBI’s announcement was met with a sarcastic response by many on twitter.

The FBI says it’s looking for one suspect. The Marshals Service is also carrying out its own investigation, since the agency takes its responsibility to protect federal officials “very seriously”.

So far, authorities have refused to confirm that the Epstein connection might have been a motive. A friend of the judge’s said Salas hadn’t received any threats recently.

Salas, 51, was New Jersey’s first Hispanic woman to serve as a US district judge. She was nominated by Barack Obama in 2010, and confirmed by the Senate the following year.

end

Beer Countess Who Flew Epstein’s ‘Lolita Express’ 32 Times Quits Child Protection Charity

The wife of a British aristocrat and frequent flyer on Jeffrey Epstein’s ‘Lolita Express’ has stepped down from her role volunteering for the UK’s National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children (NSPCC).

Clare Hazell – an interior designer who became the Countess of Iveagh after her 2001 marriage to the 4th Earl of Guinnes (of the brewing dynasty) – took 32 flights on Epstein’s infamous airplane between 1998 and 2000, which included “trips to his homes in New York, Florida, the Caribbean and New Mexico,” according to the Daily Mail. Epstein accompanied Hazell on all but one of the trips aboard the plane, per flight logs.

Ms Hazell was studying at Ohio State University in the 1990s and reportedly had a modelling agency and an apartment in Columbus, Ohio.

The friend described her as being at Epstein’s ‘beck and call’, saying how mutual plans would be cancelled immediately if she was needed by Epstein and Maxwell. –Daily Mail

Hazell, now known as Lady Iveagh, worked for Epstein ‘Madam’ Ghislaine Maxwell according to accuser Maria Farmer, who says she also interacted with Iveagh at the Ohio estate of Victoria’s Secret boss Leslie Wexner. Farmer said that Hazell “liked having nice drinks, piles of cash and nice outfits.” She was listed in Jeffrey Epstein’s famous Black Book as “Clare Hazell-Iveagh.”

Another Epstein accuser, Virginia Giuffre, accused Hazel of sexually abusing her:

Hazell, formerly the President of the NSPCC’s West Suffolk branch hosted events for the charity at Elveden Hall – a lavish estate in Suffolk, England owned by the Guinness family since 1894 in which several scenes from Eyes Wide Shut were filmed. The estate now operates as a farm, growing root vegetables and cereals on the 22,000 acre property.

The NSPCC immediately sought to distance themselves from Hazell, who a spokeswoman told the Mail “had a local volunteer fundraising role within a small branch based in the West Suffolk area,” adding “She no longer volunteers with us.”

Maxwell and Hazell reportedly met in a bar, where Maxwell introduced her to Epstein. And according to another Mail article from July 3, US prosecutors want to have a chat with Hazell.

According to the Sunday Mirror, describing Hazell anonymously:

The woman – now married to a multi-millionaire – jetted between his homes in New York, the Caribbean, Florida and New Mexico.

She was among guests at his ranch Zorro – where pictures of young girls adorned the walls and pinhole cameras were “everywhere”.

Lawyers for Epstein’s victims have asked to interview the woman, who featured in his “little black book” of social contacts.

Attorney Josh Schiller told the Sunday Mirror he has contacted the unnamed woman at her UK home.

“I can confirm that we have already asked to interview her,” he told us. –Mirror

Much like Epstein pal Prince Andrew, Hazell has not been charged with any of the crimes she’s been accused of, however we somehow doubt she’ll be speaking with US prosecutors anytime soon.

END
Democrats fume but Trump makes the correct call by tackling Portland anarchy. He will also send in Fed law enforcement into major cities.
(zerohedge)

Democrats Fume As DHS Tackles Portland Anarchy While Trump Plans To Send Feds To Major Cities

As Portland slips further into chaos amid the seventh week of nightly protests, local and state officials have slammed the Trump administration for sending Homeland Security agents to perform crowd control and arrest what DHS Secretary Chad Wolf described last week as “lawless anarchists.”

 

Federal agents use crowd control munitions to disperse Black Lives Matter protesters at the Mark O. Hatfield United States Courthouse on July 20, 2020, in Portland, Ore. (Noah Berger / AP)

In response to the DHS presence, Oregon’s Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum sued DHS and the Marshals Service in federal court over unidentified federal agents grabbing people off the streets of Portland “without warning or explanation, without a warrant, and without providing any way to determine who is directing this action.”

The state seeks a temporary restraining order to “immediately stop federal authorities from unlawfully detaining Oregonians.”

“The current escalation of fear and violence in downtown Portland is being driven by federal law enforcement tactics that are entirely unnecessary,” said Rosenblum in a statement.

The administration has enlisted federal agents, including the U.S. Marshals Special Operations Group and an elite U.S. Customs and Border Protection team based on the U.S.-Mexico border, to protect federal property.

But Oregon Public Broadcasting reported this week that some agents had been driving around in unmarked vans and snatching protesters from streets not near federal property, without identifying themselves.

Tensions also escalated after an officer with the Marshals Service fired a less-lethal round at a protester’s head on July 11, critically injuring him. –AP

On Monday, President Trump described the situation in Portland as “worse than Afghanistan,” adding “we’re going to have more federal law enforcement.” Moreover, there are now plans to send law enforcement personnel to some major US cities.

We can’t let this happen to the cities,” Trump told reporters at the White House, adding “The politicians out there are afraid of these people.”

Over the weekend, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows (R) told Fox news that the Trump administration, AG William Barr and DHS Secretary Chad Wolf would roll out a plan this week to tamp down crime across various US cities.

“Some of the unrest that we saw, even in the last month or so, but particularly last night and in the week leading up to it in Portland, is just not acceptable when you look at communities not being safe and not upholding the rule of law,” said Meadows. “So, Attorney General Barr is weighing in on that with (DHS) Secretary Wolf and you’ll see something rolled out this week as we start to go in and make sure that the communities whether it’s Chicago, or Portland, or Milwaukee, or some place across the heartland of the country, we need to make sure their communities are safe.”

On Sunday, House Democrats called for immediate investigations into DHS activities in Portland.

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler, Homeland Security Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson, and Oversight and Reform Committee Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney co-signed a letter on Sunday condemning the recent law enforcement actions authorized by the Trump administration in Portland and last month in Washington D.C. and called for the Inspectors General of the Department of Justice and Department of Homeland Security to open investigations. –CNBC

“The Attorney General of the United States does not have unfettered authority to direct thousands of federal law enforcement personnel to arrest and detain American citizens exercising their First Amendment rights. The Acting Secretary [Chad Wolf] appears to be relying on an ill-conceived executive order meant to protect historic statues and monuments as justification for arresting American citizens in the dead of night,” reads the letter.

Trump’s Monday comments come hours after the Chicago Tribune reported that DHS plans on deploying around 150 federal agents to Chicago this week.

The Homeland Security Investigations, or HSI, agents are set to assist other federal law enforcement and Chicago police in crime-fighting efforts, according to sources familiar with the matter, though a specific plan on what the agents will be doing had not been made public. –Chicago Tribune

An official with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), who wished to remain anonymous, confirmed the expected deployment, though noted that Homeland Security agents would not be involved in immigration or deportation matters.

In an unrelated Monday press conference, Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot (D) expressed concern over the possibility of Trump sending feds to Chicago based on what we’ve seen in Portland.

“We don’t need federal agents without any insignia taking people off the streets and holding them, I think, unlawfully,” said Lightfoot

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

@nytimes at 10:11 AM on Fri, Jul 17, 2020: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Friday called on Congress to work with the Trump administration to pass additional stimulus legislation by the end of the month. The request comes as benefits for millions of Americans are due to expirehttps://t.co/ciiPOglNBV

Treasury’s Mnuchin open to blanket forgiveness for smaller business relief loans 10:28 AM ET

He also said the Trump administration supports adding more funds to the $660 billion program, as well as allowing especially hard-hit businesses to apply for a second emergency loan

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-mnuchin/treasurys-mnuchin-open-to-blanket-forgiveness-for-smaller-business-relief-loans-idUSKCN24I23W

Fauci Says Cautiously Optimistic that U.S. Is on the Road to Getting Coronavirus under Control

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fauci-says-hes-cautiously-optimistic-us-on-track-to-getting-coronavirus-under-control-2020-07-17

New York’s June tax receipts dropped by $1.5 billion [17.3% y/y]

The deadline to file income tax returns was pushed back from April to July 15 because of the pandemic. Still, other tax receipts from economic activity also sank.  For example, consumption taxes dropped by $1.1 billion for the first three months of the fiscal year — from $4.4 billion from April 1 to June 30 in 2019 to $3.3 billion this year.  Other business tax revenues also fell by $700 million — from $2.2 billion to $1.5 billion.  https://nypost.com/2020/07/16/new-yorks-june-tax-receipts-dropped-by-1-5-billion-since-last-year/

‘It’s time to tax the rich’: AOC calls on Cuomo to tax N.Y. billionaires to help the needy

“We need to ask Gov. Cuomo to tax the people who are benefiting from this pandemic in order to support the working families who are facing housing insecurity, food insecurity and more,” Ocasio-Cortez… said in a campaign-like video released by Make the Road NY, a progressive advocacy group…

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-aoc-cuomo-billionaires-trump-taxes-20200716-duczb3a25veyncsx3aj6yakj5u-story.html

Flight to suburbs boosts U.S. homebuilding…

U.S. homebuilding increased in June by the most in nearly four years amid reports of rising demand for housing in suburbs and rural areas…Housing starts increased 17.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.186 million units last month, the Commerce Department said. The percentage gain was the largest since October 2016. Data for May was revised up to a 1.011 million-unit pace from the previously reported 974,000…The South and the West accounted for about 75% of housing starts last month…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN24I1OY

New Trump-Russia documents expose massive errors in NYT reporting

The document reveals that the primary “source” of Steele’s election reporting was not some well-connected current or former Russian official, but a non-Russian-based contract employee of Christopher Steele’s firm… Steele’s primary source provided him was second and third hand information and rumor at best.  Critically, the document shows that Steele’s “primary sub-source” disagreed with and was surprised by how information he gave Steele was then conveyed by Steele in the Steele dossier…

    Claim in NYT article: “Phone records and intercepted calls show that members of Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign and other Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election, according to four current and former American officials.”

    Note by Strzok: “This statement is misleading and inaccurate as written. We have not seen evidence of any individuals in contact with Russians (both Governmental and non-Governmental)” and “There is no known intel affiliation, and little if any [government of Russia] affiliation[.]…

https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/just-released-trump-russia-documents-show-anti-trump

[White House Chief of Staff] Meadows signals imminent indictments in Durham probe: ‘It’s time for people to go to jail’   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/meadows-previews-school-reopening-plans-durham-probe-results-i-expect-indictments

@thebradfordfile: The moment AG Barr starts indicting Obama’s cabinet—the pandemic will end.

EU summit deadlocked as haggling continues over €1.8tn fund

At stake is €750bn rescue package and budget for next seven years

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/eu-summit-deadlocked-as-haggling-continues-over-1-8tn-fund-1.4308336

The Tests: Covid-19 and the Benign “Common Cold” Coronavirus Influenza. Can They be Distinguished? [No, they can’t per German doctors!  If so, the implications are staggering.  More below!]

This reality was recently mentioned by a renowned virologist from Germany, in an interview where he also admitted that laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 is next to impossible given the high incidence of both false-positive “COVID-19” PCR swab tests and false positive “COVID-19” serum antibody tests.

    Apparently, neither test seems to be able to distinguish between the benign coronaviruses that can cause common colds and the more serious coronavirus that actually causes COVID-19!…

    Below is an interview with Dr Drosten made last month, in which he revealed that the benign coronavirus that causes the common cold cannot be differentiated by the COVID test kits, over 200 of which are currently in development by profiteering medical device companies

https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-tests-covid-19-and-the-benign-common-cold-coronavirus-can-they-be-distinguished/5718497

UK pauses daily coronavirus death toll update over data concerns… the toll might have been exaggerated…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-casualties/uk-pauses-daily-coronavirus-death-toll-update-over-data-concerns-idUSKCN24J0GC

Public Health England’s exaggerated death statistics are a scandal that has fed fear

Woefully misleading figures have only made it harder to tackle the pandemic and to get the country moving again   https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/17/public-health-englands-exaggerated-death-statistics-scandal/

Obama admin shut down H1N1 testing, complicating Biden’s attacks on Trump’s coronavirus screening – Public health officials disagreed with Obama CDC’s decision

“In late July, the CDC abruptly advised states to stop testing for H1N1 flu, and stopped counting individual cases,” CBS News reported in 2009. “The rationale given for the CDC guidance to forego testing and tracking individual cases was: why waste resources testing for H1N1 flu when the government has already confirmed there’s an epidemic?”… [To hide the severity for political reasons]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/flashback-obama-admin-halted-state-h1n1-testing-complicating-bidens-attacks-on-white-house.amp

Now, Covid severity is being overstated for political reasons – and it appears to be a massive fraud.

CDC Employees Made More Than 8,000 Federal Contributions To PACs And Politicians Since 2015. Only 5 Went to Republican Causes, FEC Records Show [The CDC clearly has an agenda!]

https://dailycaller.com/2020/07/17/cdc-employee-political-contributions-democratic-pacs/

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Questions raised after fatal motorcycle crash listed as COVID-19 death

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-questions-raised-after-fatal-motorcycle-crash-listed-as-covid-19-death.amp

Reports of a Surge in Coronavirus Cases in Texas Infants Is False, Official Says

“On Friday, July 17, during a press conference, a spokesperson mentioned that 85 infants under the age of one had tested positive for coronavirus,” Canales said in a statement, KRIS 6 reported. “This number reflects the cumulative total of positive tests for infants under the age of 1 since the beginning of testing in mid-March, which has resulted in 8,171 positive test results.”…

https://amp.dailycaller.com/2020/07/19/texas-infants-coronavirus-corpus-christi-false

@paulsperry_: Health officials from dozen states have mistakenly lumped (+) results from antibody tests in w viral tests for COVID-19 in reporting to CDC, inflating new cases. A (+) antibody test could mean you were infected w virus from same corona family that causes the common cold

@EWoodhouse7: Ok, this is crazy. There are 42 deaths in the Cook County Medical Examiner’s dedicated COVID-19 archive https://maps.cookcountyil.gov/medexamcovid19/that are ACCIDENTAL deaths… Are these included in city, county, and state C19 fatality counts? How do we know? https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1283796297598881794     Reminder that Dr. Ezike of the IL DPH said in April that any death of any IL resident who tested positive for C19 is counted as C19 death “even if you died of a clear alternate cause.” https://t.co/EOMb7Nq459

@steveeagar: The State of Texas today had to remove 3,484 cases from its Covid-19 positive case count, because the San Antonio Health Department was reporting “probable” cases for people never actually tested, as “confirmed” positive cases.- TDHS What other departments make this same mistake?

@NBSaphierMD: Health officials from numerous states have mistakenly included positive results from antibody tests when reporting new COVID-19 cases to the CDC, grossly inflating new cases.  The scientific equivalent to “double dipping.”

Fox’s @HeyTammyBruce: It’s becoming more apparent Dem politics resulting in inflated data being released re Covid to induce panic among the public: hospital burden, deaths, “cases,” & dramatic shutdowns. Media plays along. Why? Grotesque manipulation hoping negative impact on Trump.

Newsmax’s @EmeraldRobinson: Sources inside Trump Administration confirm to me that CDC has been misreporting the data for coronavirus to inflate the numbers.

    My DM’s are flooded with people in various states (LA, TX, GA, TN, FL) telling me the same story: they signed up for the test & went to testing site but left early because of long lines. Despite not taking the test, they get notified later that they’ve tested positive.

NBC’s “Meet the Press”: Gov. Jared Polis (D-Colo.) says the “national testing scene is a complete disgrace… All the tests we send out to private lab partners nationally … [are] almost useless from an epidemiological or even diagnostic perspective.”

https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1284844297804812289

@NikolovScience: I’ve said this before, but it deserves repeating it again: Instead of panicking about rising COVID19 cases reported by a few states and resorting to ineffective & silly measures such as mandatory mask wearing, we MUST investigate the available evidence for data FRAUD first!

@andrewbostom CDC confirms 12th straight week of declining covid-19 death rate for the U.S. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

@cindyseestruth: Cook County [IL] resident tested positive for #COVID19… 99 fever… no other symptoms.  COVID Ctr later called him & asked if he would LIE in a video they wanted to produce saying he was very ill!  [“They asked me to lie… to say it’s bad… fear mongering…”]

https://twitter.com/cindyseestruth/status/1284207437667536896

@AnnCoulter: The only covid chart that matters.  Covid DEATHS have been falling since April (once it got out of NY and away from Cuomo). https://t.co/zb4ZyJ5EMp

Last week the WH mandated that Covid stats go to the NIH, not the CDC.  Will the DJT Administration soon drop a truth bomb about Covid and those that lied or committed fraud for political purposes?

Trump Administration to Hospitals: Don’t Send Covid-19 Coronavirus Data to CDC

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/07/14/trump-administration-to-hospitals-dont-send-covid-19-coronavirus-data-to-cdc/#d2ea78c60f8a

Trump administration seeking to block funding for CDC, contact tracing and testing in new relief bill: report [DJT wouldn’t block CDC funding unless he has a very good excuse.] http://hill.cm/GYPcaWA

Fauci holds up New York as model for fighting coronavirus — ‘They did it correctly’. 

[@johncardillo: There’s something seriously wrong with this moron.]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/18/fauci-holds-up-new-york-as-model-for-fighting-coronavirus-they-did-it-correctly.html

    GOP @ RepAndyBiggsAZ: These comments by Dr. Fauci are a slap in the face to the thousands of New Yorkers who suffered immensely due to the inept and fatal policy errors from Governor Cuomo.

    @thebradfordfile: Just to be clear: New York has the highest per capita death rate on planet earth–and Dr. Fauci thinks it warrants praise for some idiotic reason. I think I know why.

Stanford Doctor Scott Atlas Says the Science Shows Kids Should Go Back to School

“There is virtually zero risk for children getting something serious or dying from this disease. Anyone who thinks schools should be closed is not talking about the children. It has nothing to do with the children’s risk,” he said. “There’s no rational reason or science to say that children transmit the disease significantly.”… We are the only country not opening schools. This is absurd,” he said. “Look at the science. I’m saying use critical thinking and logic.”…

https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/15/stanford-doctor-scott-atlas-says-the-science-shows-kids-should-go-back-to-school/?s=09#.Xw9PPEObDIQ.twitter

N.C. teachers union demands complete state shutdown, suspended mortgages before school can reopen   https://t.co/DsAEnMXdxm

Feinstein proposes withholding COVID-19 relief from states without mask mandates

[Destruction & misery to those who don’t slavishly adhere to totalitarian symbolism & commands!]

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/507760-feinstein-proposes-withholding-covid-19-relief-from-states-without-mask

Narcissists, Psychopaths, and Manipulators Are More Likely to Engage in ‘Virtuous Victim Signaling,’ Says Study- They point out that virtue signaling is defined as “the conspicuous expression of moral values, done primarily with the intent of enhancing one’s standing within a social group.”…

https://reason.com/2020/07/07/narcissists-psychopaths-and-manipulators-are-more-likely-to-engage-in-virtuous-victim-signaling-says-study/

5-Month-Old Baby among 3 Shot in Chicago [at one site onThursday] Evening Violence

https://oann.com/5-month-old-baby-among-3-shot-in-chicago-evening-violence/

Protesters clash with Chicago police, injure officers during effort to topple Columbus statue

Crowd disperses after cops stop effort to topple statue.

https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/protesters-clash-chicago-police-injure-officers-during-effort-topple-columbus

Biden campaign staffer mocked cops as worse than ‘pigs,’ called for defunding police

Sara Pearl has since deleted some of the social media posts

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-campaign-official-mocked-cops-as-worse-than-pigs

Trump claims he will win re-election against ‘mentally shot’ Joe Biden

“He doesn’t even come out of his basement. They think, ‘Oh this is a great campaign.’ So he goes in, I’ll then make a speech, it’ll be a great speech, and some young guy starts writing, ‘Vice President Biden said this, this, this, this.’ He didn’t say it. Joe doesn’t know he’s alive, OK? He doesn’t know he’s alive.”

    But he did suggest that Biden wouldn’t be able to stand up to a grilling from Wallace.  “Let Biden sit through an interview like this, he’ll be on the ground crying for mommy. He’ll say ‘mommy, mommy, please take me home,’” the president said…  https://t.co/q1VUqyBD8j

Progressive Newcomer Defeats Powerful [16-term] New York Congressman

Political novice Jamaal Bowman scored an upset victory over veteran House Democrat Eliot Engel in New York’s primary, part of a show of strength by progressives in the state that is replacing some longtime incumbents with younger, more diverse candidates…

   Another Black progressive candidate, Mondaire Jones, won the eight-way race to replace 16-term Representative Nita Lowey, who is retiring. New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres had a significant edge in another crowded contest to succeed Representative Jose Serrano, who… is retiring…

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-17/progressive-newcomer-defeats-powerful-new-york-congressman-engel

@ByronYork: 65,000 mail-in ballots in New York’s 12th district race. One-in-five thrown out. Leader’s margin is 648 votes. Lots of lawsuits. Now why is it we should not be worried about voting by mail for the presidential election? From @QueensEagle https://t.co/Cm7ulC3bwn

@KamVTV: Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has been undergoing chemotherapy treatment since May because of a recurrence of cancer, the justice said in a statement today.

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg says she’s receiving chemotherapy for a recurrence of cancer, but has no plans to retire from the Supreme Courthttps://t.co/pdst47mp3P

@TomFitton: Justice Ginsburg has had liver cancer since February. And the public was not informed until today… Ginsburg has been undergoing treatment for liver cancer since May, but we’re only finding out about it today. I wish her good health. The Supreme Court needs to be more transparent on these types of issues.[The fact that RBG has now fessed up implies her condition is very serious.]

Mayor Lightfoot’s Chicago: 50 Shot, at Least 6 Killed, Since Friday Evening [to early Sunday]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/07/19/mayor-lightfoots-chicago-50-shot-at-least-6-killed-since-friday-evening/

ComEd Charged With Bribery for Steering Jobs, Other Benefits to [IL] Speaker Michael Madigan

Commonwealth Edison on Friday stated that it has steered jobs, contracts and payments to Public Official A, who’s later referred to as the Illinois House Speaker in a highly explosive court filing released Friday morning…    https://www.wbez.org/stories/comed-avoids-prosecution-in-sprawling-corruption-probe-over-its-springfield-lobbying-activities/67133f96-6dc0-4e62-81cf-a9ebc6edad9c

@sxdoc: Fox News Owner James Murdoch & Liberal Wife Give $1.23 Million to Biden Campaign

https://t.co/vFxTvnSUL2

Thousands rally in Russia for 8th day of anti-Putin protests

https://nypost.com/2020/07/18/thousands-rally-in-russia-for-8th-day-of-anti-putin-protests/

15th-Century cathedral in France ravaged by fire, officials suspect arson

https://nypost.com/2020/07/18/15th-century-cathedral-in-france-ravaged-by-fire/

END

Let us close out tonight with this offering courtesy of Dr. Chris Martensen and Greg hunter

(Greg hunter/Chris Martenson

It’s reasonable to assume that French authorities have not released the report on the Notre Dame Cathedral fire (April 15, 2019) because it doesn’t want the findings to be made public

Steering Towards a Cliff Edge – Chris Martenson

By Greg Hunter On July 19, 2020

Chris Martenson is a futurist, economic researcher and holds a PhD in toxicology from Duke University.  He is telling people to “brace for impact” because we are well beyond the point of no return economically and financially speaking.  Martenson explains, “We are not doing anything except steering towards a cliff edge at this point in time.  We had the 2008 financial crisis, and we should have learned a couple of lessons.  We didn’t learn any lessons, and I think we have just enshrined these lessons into something that is really going to bite us.  The Federal Reserve, Plunge Protection Team and all the organs of state are all geared towards one thing and one thing only, and that is giving more money to rich people.  I believe we are in the Fourth Turning . . . and one of the hallmarks of this is loss of faith in institutions.  The Federal Reserve is still held up as a benevolent organization.  They care about inflation and unemployment, and none of that is true.  What they care about is shoveling and funneling big profits to big banks.  So, the Federal Reserve deserves to lose every bit of respect anybody has ever held for it.”

Martenson goes on to say, “I think this is ruining our society.  This is the kind of thing that I believe led Plutarch way back a couple of thousand years ago to say, ‘The oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics is a gap between the rich and the poor.’  The Federal Reserve is busy enshrining and ensuring that we have the largest and steepest wealth pyramid we have ever seen. . . . The Federal Reserve is creating the conditions that lead to a future that I don’t want to go toward.  I don’t want to live in a place where mobs rule, people are unhappy and riots are happening. . . . The Federal Reserve is the entity that is most responsible for most of the pain we see going on around us.  I wrote an article called ‘Brace for Impact’ recently because this is a trend I am seeing, and it is accelerating and not slowing down.  There are no signs that team elite is going to say we have taken enough . . . let’s start reversing some of that.  No, they are going to keep doing what they do, and they won’t stop until something breaks.”

Nowhere are the problems more in focus than in the large Democrat controlled cities.  Martenson says this is why you are seeing a “back to land movement . . . a flight from the cities . . . and this trend is just starting.”

Martenson also weights in on the Covid 19 crisis and says, “The mainstream media (MSM) press has blood on their hands for failing to take a neutral position on this stuff,” such as the very positive results for treatments like Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ).  Instead, the MSM ignored HCQ or said it was dangerous to use, which was a total lie.   Martenson contends the MSM misinformed people, and ‘people died.’”

Martenson also says, “People should tune your body up so your body can fight off Covid 19. . . . You want your body to be as healthy as it can be from an immunological standpoint.”

Martenson says the good news is Covid 19 is definitely going to “trend down by the end of the year.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One- on-One with Dr. Chris Martenson, co-founder of PeakProsperity.com.  

Martenson says the good news is Covid 19 is definitely going to “trend down by the end of the year.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One- on-One with Dr. Chris Martenson, co-founder of PeakProsperity.com.  

-END-

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you TUESDAY night.

2 comments

  1. […] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

    Like

  2. Paul Heron · · Reply

    Where was the Club Med piece ?

    Like

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