JULY 21//ERIC SPROTT SENDS SILVER HUGELY NORTHBOUND WITH A MASSIVE 75 MILLION OZ PURCHASE//SILVER UP $1.38 TO $21.18//GOLD FOLLOWS NICELY UP $26.090 TO $1842.60//COMEX GOLD STANDING: 24.2 TONNES//A MASSIVE 15.368 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV: (THIS IS A FRAUD)//A HUGE 4.97 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD (THIS IS ALSO A FRAUD)//CHINA VS USA/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD::$:1842.60  UP $26.00   The quote is London spot price (cash market)

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$21.18// UP $1.38  London spot price ( cash market)

 

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1841.50  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $21.29//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

AUG GOLD:  $1843.80  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE AUG /: $1.20

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $21.50…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :  32 CENTS  PER OZ

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today:0/8

issued 0

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,815.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/20/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 07/22/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
135 H RAND 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 4
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 7 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 8 8
MONTH TO DATE: 7,687

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JULY CONTRACT: 8 NOTICE(S) FOR 800 OZ  (.02488 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7687 NOTICES FOR 768700 OZ  (23.94 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR JULY

 

 

121 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 605,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 14,974 for 74.870 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $9337  UP 176

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $9354 down $193

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $26.00 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD

 

 

 

GLD: 1,211.86 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER UP $1.38 TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND: WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE  SLV:

A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

WHAT A FRAUD!!

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 541.967  MILLION OZ./

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4338 CONTRACTS FROM 179,963 UP  TO 184,301, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG 40 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING PLUS A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, ACCOMPANYING  A SMALL INCREASE  IN SILVER STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR JULY.  WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6863 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   JULY: 0  AND SEP 2525 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  2525 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1324 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2525 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 12.625 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 40 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

81.700 MILLION OZ INITIALLY IN JULY.

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE 40 CENTS).. AND,OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS. THE SMALL GAIN AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL INCREASE IN STANDING OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY,  STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A  NET GAIN OF 6863 CONTRACTS OR 34.32 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKER  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF JULY:

14,778 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 14,778 CONTRACTS) OR 73,89 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1055 CONTRACTS OR 5.277 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY: 73,89 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 1.055% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,211.31 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EXP                               73.89 MILLION OZ/

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE FOR THE PAST 60 DAYS IS A LOT LESS.  NO DOUBT THAT THE COST TO CARRY THESE THINGS HAS EXPLODED  AND AS SUCH CANNOT BE DONE AS FREQUENTLY AS BEFORE.

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4338, WITH OUR 40 CENT GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAYTHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2525 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  6863 CONTRACTS (WITH OUR 40 CENT GAIN IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 2525 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 4338 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED DESPITE A 40 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $19.77 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.892 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 127% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW  JULY  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 121 NOTICE(S) FOR 605,000  OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 IS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 81.700 million oz
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY GOOD SIZED 4878 CONTRACTS TO 592,122 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE  GAIN OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE  OF $7.40 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY// WE  HAD HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ANOTHER GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN  GOLD OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR JULY, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $7.40 .

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  64

 

WE GAINED A VERY STRONG SIZED 7248 CONTRACTS  (22.54 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2370 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 1870 AND OCT: 0 DEC: 500  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2370.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 592,122. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7248 CONTRACTS: 4878 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2370 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 7248 CONTRACTS OR 22.54 TONNES. MONDAY, WE HAD A GAIN OF $7.40 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT GAIN IN  PRICE, WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 22.54 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS/OFFICIAL SECTOR  SUPPLIED INFINITE SUPPLIES OF SHORT GOLD COMEX PAPER WITH RECKLESS ABANDON. THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT ROSE $7.40).AND IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY GOLD LONGS FROM THE GOLD ARENA WAS ALSO UNSUCCESSFUL  (SEE BELOW).

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  (2370) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (4410 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  6780 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)ANOTHER  INCREASE IN GOLD  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT JULY MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) GOOD COMEX OI GAIN AND .5) SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE… AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//MONDAY//$7.40.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JULY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUGUST), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY : 51,749 CONTRACTS OR 5,174,900 oz OR 160.96 TONNES (14 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3696 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 160.96 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 160.96/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.53% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3179,15  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       160.96 TONNES SO FAR..

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4338 CONTRACTS FROM 179,963 UP TO 184,301 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1)   HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A GOOD INCREASE STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR JULY AND  4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 2525 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY: 0 CONTRACTS   AND SEPT: 2525 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2525 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN  OF 4338  CONTRACTS TO THE 2525 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 6863 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 34.32 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR 40 CENT GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.75 POINTS OR 0.20%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 577.67 POINTS OR 1.31%   /The Nikkei closed UP 166.74 POINTS OR 0.73%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 2.56%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9890 /Oil UP TO 42.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and 44.59 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9890 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9863 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4878 CONTRACTS TO 592,122 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS GOOD COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR  GAIN OF $7.40 IN GOLD PRICING /MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING//). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2370 CONTRACTS),.  THUS WE HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AND 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)  ANOTHER HUMONGOUS STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//JULY DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) , …  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7248 CONTRACTS WITH GOLD’S  GAIN IN PRICE. NOTE THE FACT THAT LATELY THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ARE SMALL.. SOME OF OUR MAJOR BANKERS REFUSE TO USE THE SERIAL FORWARDS AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM. THUS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST RISES APPRECIABLY AGAINST A LOWER ISSUANCE OF THESE EXCH. FOR PHYSICALS.

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 64

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2370 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  AUG  1820 , OCT: 0  DEC 500 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2370 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  7248 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2370 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 4878 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS PROVIDED ALL THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHICH OUR LONGS DUTIFULLY ACCEPTED AS THEY GOBBLED UP A SMALL  AMOUNT OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WITH HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD COMEX OI GAIN,  A GOOD INCREASE IN  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR THE JULY DELIVERY (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW)… AND ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION……AND WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN COMEX PRICE OF 7.40 DOLLARS..

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $7.40).  AND, THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A STRONG 22.54 TONNES.

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 7238, CONTRACTS OR 724800 OZ OR 22.54 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  592,122 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 59.21 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1841 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1841/2200 OR 83.70% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 294,884 contracts// good volume//hitting rock bottom//most traders have moved to London

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  204,648 contracts//  volume poor //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

JULY 21 /2020

JULY GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
15,993.900 oz
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

395,103,641

OZ

BRINKS

JPMORGAN

MANFRA

 

INCLUDES

6500

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
8 notice(s)
 800 OZ
(0.02488 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
99 contracts
(9900 oz)
0.3079 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7687 notices
768700 OZ
23.94 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

 

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

DEALER WITHDRAWAL: 0

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 3 deposit into the customer account

 

i) Brinks:  72,596.960 oz

ii) Into JPMorgan: 208,981.500 oz 6500 kilobars

iii) Into Manfra:  118,525.181 oz

 

 

 

total deposit:  395,103.641 oz (12.30 tonnes)

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) out of HSBC: 15,993.900 oz

We had 1  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 0 //

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of JULY registered a total of 107 oi contracts FOR a GAIN of 41 contracts. We had 19 notices served on MONDAY so we GAINED ANOTHER 60 contracts or an additional 600 oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into London based forwards.

 

 

Next comes August and another strong delivery month and here the OI SHOCKINGLY FELL BY A SMALL 5435  contracts DOWN to 283,344 contracts, as we continue our countdown to first day notice. We have 8 more reading days before first day notice.  We should be contracting by 18000-20,000 contacts per day.

August is contracting very slowly…and thus  we are going to have a whopper of a delivery month

 

 

Sept saw another addition of 102 contracts to stand at 584.  Oct GAINED 617 contracts UP to 40,702. (The boys still prefer August)

 

We had 8 notices filed today for 800 oz

 

FOR THE JULY 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 8 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7687) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY (107 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (8 x 100 oz per contract) equals 778,600 OZ OR 24.217 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (7687 x 100 oz + (107 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (8) x 100 oz which equals 778600 oz standing OR 24.217 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE record amount for gold standing for a JULY delivery month (a  non active delivery month).

We gained 60 contracts or an additional  600 oz will stand at the comex.

We are now witnessing an increase in queue jumping on a daily basis. Sooner or later they will be running out of metal to supply our longs.

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

302,293.430 oz PLEDGED  JULY 9// 2020  JPMORGAN:  9.40 TONNES

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

 

653,730.982 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/july 2/july 21               20.333 tonnes

total pledged gold:  1,142,661.672 oz                                     35.54 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 381.79 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS ie. 24.217 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  13,417,271.417 oz or 417.33 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020/SOME JULY 9) which cannot be settled upon:  302,293.43, oz (or 9.402 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED july 2 and july 21
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 653,730.982 oz added which cannot be settled:  20.333 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,142,661.672 oz or 35.54 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:  12,274,610.0  (381.79 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  12,274,610.0 (381.79 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  21,171,614.515 oz (658.52 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   34,588,885.932 oz 1075,86 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  949.52 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of April 2018. and it continues to present day.  Thus 24 data entry points.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.  Gold owners are very clear people.  They would know full well that

the gold at the comex is unallocated and that they would not be stupid enough to keep their gold at the comex especially in the registered category once deliveries are asked upon. If physical gold was present it would be have removed from the comex… It shows there is no gold at the comex.  They are just trading in sticky paper.

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

JULY 21/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

 

JULY SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH

 

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 600,151,129 oz
CNT
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,118,414.400 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
121
CONTRACT(S)
(605,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1366 contracts
 6,830,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  14,974 contracts

74,870,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

i)we had 2 deposits into the customer account

into JPMorgan:   0

 

 

ii) Into CNT: 1,018,414.400 oz

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 160.744 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.08% of all official comex silver. (160.819 million/327.638 million

 

total customer deposits today:  1,018,414.400    oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

i) Out of CNT  599,161,260 oz

ii) Out of Brinks: 989.86 oz

 

total withdrawals; 600,151.120   oz

We had 1 adjustments//  customer to dealer

i) Out of CNT    596,505.76 oz

and ii) Delaware:  5411.564 oz  (customer to dealer)

 

 

 

total dealer silver: 128.795 million

total dealer + customer silver:  327.658 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The front month of July has an open interest of  1487 contracts, as we lost 107 contracts.  We had 115 notices served on MONDAY, so we GAINED  8 contracts or an additional 40,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of July as they REFUSED TO  morph into a London based forwards.  It seems that we have little silver over on this side of the pond. We still have a huge amount of contracts still outstanding to be served upon in July.

 

 

 

The next month after July is the non active month of  August and here  sees its open interest FELL by 8 contracts DOWN to 796

The big September contract month sees a GAIN of 3253 contracts down to 143,506.

 

The total number of notices filed today for the JULY 2020. contract month is represented by 121 contract(s) FOR 605,,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 14,974 x 5,000 oz = 74,870,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY.(1487) and the number of notices served upon today 121 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY/2019 contract month: 14,974 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (1487)- number of notices served upon today (121) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month.equals 81,700,000 oz.  (A WHOPPER )

WE GAINED 8 CONTRACTS OR 40,000 OZ WILL  STAND FOR DELIVERY. SILVER IS STILL VERY SCARCE ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AND THE REASON FOR CONSIDERABLE MORPHING OVER TO LONDON.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 142,089 CONTRACTS // volume huge/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 85,644.,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume VERY GOOD/

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 85,644 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 428 million  OZ  611% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 1.10% ((JULY 21/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -.63% to NAV:   (JULY 21/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ 1.10%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 18.22 TRADING 17.95///NEGATIVE 1.50

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JULY 21//WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1211.86 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 15//WITH GOLD UP $1.55 TODAY/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 3.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1203.97 TONNES

JULY 13//WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.46 TONNES

JULY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.82 TONNES

JULY 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OX 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1202.57 TONNES

JULY 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.75 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1199.36 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 30//WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE  IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.61 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $5.03 TODAY: VERY STRANGE: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.46 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1175.39 TONNES

JUNE 25//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30 TODAY//ANOTHER STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.6 TONNES///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1176.85 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.50 TODAY;  A STRONG 3.21 TONNES ADDED TO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.25  TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $25.50 TODAY/ANOTHER CRIMINAL PAPER DEPOSIT OF 6.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1166.04 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 23.09 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.31 TONNES

JUNE 19/WITH GOLD UP$16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//; INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 18//WITH GOLD DOWN $2.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 16//WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD DOWN ANOTHER $8.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 12//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.17 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.22 TONNES

JUNE 11//WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 6.55 TONNES AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1135.05 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

JULY 21/ GLD INVENTORY 1211.86 tonnes*

LAST;  865 TRADING DAYS:   +268.04 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 765 TRADING DAYS://+446.15  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP $1.38 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.368 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.967 MILLION OZ//

JULY 20/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:  A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.819 MILLION OZ ‘ENTERED” THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 526.599 MILLION OZ/

JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 1.583 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 522.780 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF  5.123 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.197 MILLION OZ..

JULY 15.WITH SILVER  UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.074 MILLION OZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 13//WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.677 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 4.844 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT  515.795 MILLION OZ

WHAT A FRAUD!!

JULY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 8.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.951 MILLION OZ/

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.118 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//VERY SURPRISING.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.753 MILLION OZ//

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ///

JULY 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.008 MILLION OZ

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.007 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 466,000 OZ TO PAY FOR STORAGE FEES AND INSURANCE//// AND A LARGE DEPOSIT OF 1.212 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 492.604 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 25/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 931,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 491.858 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 24///WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS// NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23//WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.473 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 490.927 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 486/454 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 19//WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE!!  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 839,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486,454 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 932,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.293 MILLION OZ

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.261 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.361 MILLION OZ

JUNE 16//WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.118 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.100 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.982  MILLION OZ///

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: TWO DEPOSITS OF 7.269 MILLION OZ AND 1.802 MILLION OZ ADDED TO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 481.982 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 11//WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 472.89 MILLION OZ//

 

JULY 21.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

541.967 MILLION OZ.

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

An excellent interview of David Tice as he explains how the liquidity in the gold/silver market has been draining out.

David Tice/Andrew Maguire/Kinesis/GATA)

Monetary metals advocate David Tice interviewed for Kinesis Money by Andrew Maguire

 Section: 

11:40p ET Monday, July 20, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Investment firm founder, monetary metals advocate, and philanthropist David Tice was interviewed last week by Kinesis Money founder and London metals trader Andrew Maquire, discussing the prospects for gold and silver, the draining of liquidity from the gold and silver derivative markets, and related subjects. Tice compliments GATA’s work. The interview is 50 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4O5MNyzyAzQ&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

Silver Is Soaring Again, Citi Sees $2000 Gold Imminent

Update (0830ET): 5 minutes after we posted and suggested that BIS precious metals boss Benoit Gilson should “get back to work”… he did…

*  *  *

Silver futures are surging again this morning, dramatically outperforming gold (which is also up notably) with both pushing to new multi-year highs…

Silver futures are back near $21…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Source: Bloomberg

Silver is massively outperforming gold…

Source: Bloomberg

Erasing all of the pandemic/easing driven spike…

Source: Bloomberg

Citi analysts said in a note this week, gold is benefiting from loose monetary policy, low real yields, record inflows into exchange-traded funds and increased asset allocation. They expect the precious metal to climb to an all-time high in the next six-to-nine months, and there’s a 30% probability it’ll top $2,000 an ounce in the next three-to-five months.

“Nominal gold prices have already posted fresh records in every other G-10 and major emerging market currency this year,” the analysts said.

“It is only a matter of time for fresh” highs in U.S. dollars, they said, adding that demand for a store of wealth should also lift silver.

Citi is the latest in a growing line of firms suggesting precious metals have more room to run – even making new record highs (in US terms).

Is the world losing faith in fiat?

Get back to work Mr.Gilson…

end
News alert from Eric Sprott: and this propelled silver skybound!

SILVER SHORT SQUEEZE ALERT: Sprott Silver Trust To Purchase $1.5 Billion Of Physical Silver, A Jaw-Dropping 8.8% Of Annual Global Production!

https://kingworldnews.com/silver-short- squeeze-alert-sprott-silver-trust-to-purchase-1-5-billion- of-physical-silver-a-jaw-dropping-8-8-of-annual-global- production/

James Turk: “Eric, this announcement is extremely bullish news for silver. $1.5 billion at $20/ounce equates to a jaw-dropping 75 million ounces of silver, which is a mind-boggling 8.8% of annual global mining production. It is a truly staggering figure when you think about it, particularly in today’s market with extremely tight conditions for physical metal and with demand for physical silver already so high. And remember, Eric, shorts are already scrambling to cover. How will they react to this?”…

end

(Market Watch)

Silver Price Hits $21, Up 80% in 18 Weeks from Covid Crash to Crush Gold/Silver Ratio Below 90

Tuesday, 7/21/2020 13:55

SILVER PRICES leapt in Asian and London trade Tuesday, surging to new 4- year highs in US Dollar and Euro terms and reaching 2013 levels for UK Pound investors as gold also rose, touching 9-year Dollar highs barely $80 per ounce beneath the all- time peak of September 2011.

Gold has added that much already this month.

Silver priced in the US Dollar jumped to $21.03 per ounce in London spot trade, just 13 cents shy of the peak in June 2016 when precious metals briefly surged on the UK’s shock Brexit referendum result.

With gold rising to $1838 per ounce – its highest since mid-September 2011, the week after its current all-time Dollar high – today’s jump in live silver prices squashed the Gold/Silver Ratio down below 90 for the first time since 24 February.

The Gold/Silver Ratio is a simple measure of the two formerly monetary metals against each other. Averaging 56.7 over the last half-century, it shows how much 1 ounce of gold is worth in ounces of silver.

Sinking from 93.1 on Monday to below 87.7 this morning, the Gold/Silver Ratio would stand at 19 if it reflected silver’s geological abundance compared to gold’s in the earth’s crust, or just 8 if it reflected current levels of global mining output by weight.

Peaking at 100 in the global economic recession of 1991, the ratio shot through that level this March, topping at 125 ounces of silver per 1 ounce of gold when the Coronavirus shutdowns of global economic activity saw the gray metal – which finds over half its end-demand from silver’s industrial uses, against less than 1/10th for gold – plummet to the cheapest since 2009, down below $12 per ounce.

Chart of Gold/Silver Ratio, London daily benchmarks. Source: BullionVault via LBMA

“Like Cinderella,” says Rhona O’Connell at StoneX, the commodities, bullion and equity brokers, “silver can remain ‘below stairs’ for months at a time. But when it comes to life it does so with a vengeance, and like Cinderella, arrives at the party in a blaze of glory.”

Global stock markets also rose Tuesday, taking the MSCI World Index within 4% of February’s pre-Covid Crash record, even as longer-term interest rates ticked higher in the bond market.

Annual yields offered to new buyers of 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 0.62% as the price of Washington’s debt price edged lower.

That yield marked a new all-time low when first reached in March’s Covid Crash across equity and commodity markets.

But inflation expectations rose faster than bond yields today, reaching 1.49% per annum on market-inferred 10-year breakeven rates.

Together, that put the real rate of interest on 10-year US bonds at minus 0.87%, matching the previous record low of 10 December 2012.

Chart 10-year US Treasury bond yields vs. 10-year breakeven inflation expectations. Source: St.Louis Fed

“I think we’re probably due a second round of investor panic,” said a senior investment advisor to hedge funds, pension trustees and other large money managers in a private call with BullionVault on Tuesday.

“Equity investors are currently like deer caught in the headlights, fearing they’ll miss out on yet more gains if they sell to take profits.

“But lots of [economic] sectors are going to see hysteresis, the Covid Crisis will cause permanent damage. To try and protect them, central banks want to see another leg down in real rates, making debt cheaper to service and renew.”

Data from the end of Monday’s US trade showed the giant SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLD) expanded by 0.4% on net investment inflows yesterday, leading the world’s largest gold-backed ETF product to need almost 1,212 tonnes of bullion to support its value, the most since start-April 2013.

The iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) meantime swelled by 0.7%, needing an additional 119 tonnes of bullion at a new record 16,379 – yet another all-time record, equal to 2/3rds of this year’s projected world mining output.

“Silver ETF holders are more retail [ie, private investors] than gold, and tend to hold on for longer,” says O’Connell.

“In addition, there are logistical problems in the market, with North American refiners flat out and fully booked, partly because it is taking eight to ten weeks to get material from Europe into New York.

“That said, the short-term price chart shows how viciously silver can fall.  Cinderella may be at the ball, but when she leaves, it will be as quickly and unexpectedly as her arrival.”

Meantime, last week’s 2.0% gain in silver prices already showed how “momentum can increase exponentially,” says one London bullion trading desk, “especially as the flow of business is unhindered by [mining] producers selling…something which has already happened in the past few weeks, when natural sellers came and hedged volumes of future production at around $18.50 per ounce.”

On the political front, leaders of the 27 nations in the European Union overnight agreed a €750bn post-Covid recovery and stimulus package, with some funds raised by joint EU bonds but half now needing to be repaid by member states in the future.

The UK Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee meantime said the Conservative Government “actively avoided” investigating Russian interference in the 2016 Brexit referendum, a finding termed “Russophobia” by Moscow as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office denied it had “badly underestimated” the threat posed by foreign financing of social media adverts.

Shares in drugs research firm Synairgen (LON: SNG), allied to the University of Oxford and working with pharma giant Astrazeneca (LON: AZN), meantime extended their jump, now up 5-fold in 3 trading days, after reporting promising results from its phase 2 trial of a possible treatment for Covid- 19.

-END-

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9890/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9863   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 6.75 POINTS OR 0.20%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 577.67 POINTS OR 2.31%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 166.74 POINTS OR 0.73%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 95.77/Euro FALLS TO 1.1440

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.27/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 42.16 and Brent: 44.59

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.45%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.08% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.36%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.53: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.10

3k Gold at $1828.60 silver at: 20.61   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 70/100 in roubles/dollar) 70.72

3m oil into the 42 dollar handle for WTI and 44 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.27 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9388 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0741 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.45%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.62% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.32%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.8441..

Futures Surge After EU Reaches “Truly Historic” Pandemic Bailout Deal

S&P futures and global markets jumped on Tuesday after EU leaders clinched an “historic” deal on a massive €750BN ($860BN) recovery plan for their coronavirus-throttled economies in the early hours of Tuesday, after a turbulent, seemingly endless summit lasting almost five days.

 

Eminis also got a boost to surpass their June 8 highs thanks to a better-than-expected quarterly profit from IBM, a beat from Coke and on hopes for even more domestic stimulus to prop up an economy reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

The EU agreement paves the way for the European Commission to raise billions of euros on capital markets on behalf of all 27 states, an unprecedented act of solidarity in almost seven decades of European integration. Summit chairman Charles Michel called the accord, reached at a 5.15 a.m. (0315 GMT), “a pivotal moment” for Europe.

European shares rallied to four-month highs on Tuesday with the Euro Stoxx 50 rising as much as 1.9% during London morning, and the euro touched a four-month high of $1.1470 as both the rumor and the news of the EU deal were bought. Stocks in Italy, likely the biggest beneficiary, added more than 2% and led gains among local exchanges that mostly outperformed U.S. equity futures. Norway’s Adevinta ASA surged as much as 39% after agreeing to buy EBay’s online classifieds business for $9.2 billion.

Many had warned that a failed summit amid the coronavirus pandemic would have put the bloc’s viability in serious doubt after years of economic crisis and Britain’s recent departure.  “This agreement sends a concrete signal that Europe is a force for action,” a jubilant Michel told reporters. French President Emmanuel Macron, who spearheaded a push for the deal with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, hailed it as “truly historic”.

European politicians hope the 750 billion euro ($857.33 billion) recovery fund and its related 1.1 trillion euro 2021-2027 budget will help repair the continent’s deepest recession since World War Two after the coronavirus outbreak shut down economies. Germany Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said that, with the agreement, the chances of “a cautious, slow recovery” in the second half of this year had increased enormously.

Image

We’ll see how that goes: it won’t be the first time Europe was optimistic about a major deal only to see it all come crashing down. For now, markets like it and a gauge of risk in Europe’s investment-grade debt dropped to the lowest since February. The euro steadied after a recent rally, with some taking modest profits on the Stimulus deal.

 

Meanwhile, in the US IBM jumped 5.3% premarket after it beat sharply lowered EPS and revenues and signaled higher demand in its cloud computing business, as large corporations accelerate their digital shift. The S&P 500 closed higher for the year and the Nasdaq notched another record closing high on Monday after promising early data from trials of three potential vaccines and a boost from high-flying companies including Amazon.com and Microsoft.

“The market, particularly tech stocks, is rallying on both good news and bad news, that tells us it’s all about momentum and not about the facts,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pacific Pty. “There are concerns we could see significant pullbacks before we make further gains, but at the moment you can’t stand in front of the train that is the Nasdaq 100 Index.”

Stocks have been marching higher globally on the back of more government stimulus and a seemingly unstoppable advance in tech names. And speaking of even more stimulus, advisers to President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats were set to discuss the next steps in responding to the coronavirus crisis on Tuesday, with congressional Republicans saying they were working on a $1 trillion relief bill. Meanwhile, new infections raged in Florida on Monday, while California saw improvement, with cases and hospitalizations beginning to stabilize after a surge. Trump also said he would resume holding regular COVID-19 news briefings on Tuesday.

Among other stocks, oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron rose 2.2% and 1.4%, respectively, on prospects of higher fuel demand. Other companies reporting stronger than expected data today included Coca-Cola (Q2 EPS 0.42, Exp. 0.41) and Marlboro maker Philip Morris International (Q2 EPS 1.29, Exp. 1.10).

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, led by communications and IT, after rising in the last session. The Topix gained 0.4%, with GMO Cloud KK and Stella Chemifa rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2%, with Jiangsu High Hope and Beh-Property posting the biggest advances. Record-High Asia Tech at Risk of Running Too Hot: Taking Stock Here are some notable movers in the region.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a third day, dropping below 1,200 for the first time in 5 weeks, as risk-sensitive currencies advanced on improved global investor sentiment after European Union leaders reached an agreement on a stimulus package, sending a dollar gauge toward a six-week low. As noted above, the euro first hit a fresh four-month high, before erasing the advance as traders took profits on long positions. The euro was sold by investors that were long against the pound and yen after the deal was reached, according to traders. That resulted in the dollar paring its earlier losses against most commodity currencies. The Australian dollar led gains, climbing 0.8% to a one-year high of 0.7071; Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said earlier the currency was broadly in line with fundamentals.

In rates, the 10Y Treasury was almost unchanged for another day as the Fed’s takeover of bond markets makes it virtually impossible for bonds to move; in Europe the spread between Italian and German bonds narrowed to the tightest since February amid optimism that more debt will somehow fix what is a problem caused by record debt. US Treasuries were slightly cheaper across the curve as E-mini futures extended gains. Treasury losses led by long end, cheapening 10- to 30-year yields higher by more than 1bp; 10-year at 0.622% kept pace with bunds while Italian bonds outperform by 2.5bp.

In commodities, WTI and Brent rallied this morning with sentiment in general bolstered post the European Council coming to agreement overnight. Price action has seen WTI and  Brent September futures hit highs of USD 42.02/bbl and USD 44.60/bbl respectively so far. Newsflow for the complex itself has once again been very sparse with no scheduled events for the complex this week aside from the weekly releases which see the private inventory report tonight; some expectations looking for a draw of 750k, compared to the previous weeks draw of 8.3mln. As a reminder for the complex today the Aug’20 WTI future is set to expire. Turning to spot gold, the precious metal itself not far from the September 2011 high of USD 1827.88/oz; currently, the sessions peak is USD 1824.55/oz.  Upward price action assisted by total gold ETF holdings increasing for 17 continuous days by ~2.68mln/oz, via ING.

Looking at the day ahead, data highlights include UK public sector borrowing for June, Canada’s retail sales for May, and from the US there’s the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for June. Central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, while earnings releases feature The Coca-Cola Company, Texas Instruments, Philip Morris and Lockheed Martin.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 3,267.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.1% to 379.60
  • MXAP up 1.5% to 167.70
  • MXAPJ up 2.1% to 556.00
  • Nikkei up 0.7% to 22,884.22
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,582.74
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.3% to 25,635.66
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,320.90
  • Sensex up 1.2% to 37,856.41
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 2.6% to 6,156.30
  • Kospi up 1.4% to 2,228.83
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at -0.461%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1437
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 6.5 bps to 0.978%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 0.329%
  • Brent futures up 2.3% to $44.27/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,823.31
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.76

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • European Union leaders agreed on an unprecedented stimulus package worth 750 billion euros ($860 billion) to pull their economies out of the worst recession in memory and tighten the financial bonds holding their 27 nations together
  • Hong Kong is facing its worst coronavirus outbreak, and the city is woefully unprepared for the surge
  • A coronavirus vaccine the University of Oxford is developing with AstraZeneca Plc showed promising results in early human testing, and is now set to move into larger trials that are likely to be decisive on how effective they truly are
  • The world’s major central banks aren’t purchasing debt fast enough, leaving almost $1 trillion of new sovereign bonds looking for buyers in the months ahead
  • Senior U.S. lawmakers, including Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, will seek to use today’s London visit to press Prime Minister Boris Johnson to take an even harder stance on China
  • Joe Biden on Tuesday unveiled a $775 billion plan to bolster child care and care for the elderly that would be financed by taxes on real estate investors as well increased tax compliance by high-income earners

Asia-Pac bourses traded firmer across the board following strong handover from Wall Street, as tech shares pushed the SPX into positive territory for the year, whilst Amazon shares gained almost 8%, Tesla over 9%, and IBM rose some 6% after hours following a beat on both top and bottom lines, but notably, the Co. reported an improvement in three out of five units over the past quarter. ASX 200 (+2.6%) was bolstered by its tech and material stocks in what was an in-fitting performance with its peers State-side, albeit BHP shares failed to gain much traction in Aussie trade after reporting a quarterly copper production decline whilst noting 2021 copper output volumes will be slightly lower YY. Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) also felt the tech euphoria, but with upside somewhat hampered by currency dynamics. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp (+0.2%) took a breather after yesterday’s rally and as the PBoC’s operation resulted in a modest net daily drain of CNY 20bln. Hang Seng (+2.3%) saw a strong performance from the cash open as a number of its large cap stocks remained in firm positive territory, whilst reports yesterday noted the Hang Seng will launch a tech index next Monday to track the 30 largest eligible stocks listed in Hong Kong. Elsewhere, Alibaba’s Hong Kong listing soared over 5% as its founder’s newest venture looks towards a record USD 200bln IPO. Note: Taiwan’s chip giant TSMC rose over 4% amid tailwinds from IBM’s earnings.

Top Asian News

  • China Probes Car Inc. Shareholder Linked to Luckin Founder

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +1.5%) trade on the front-foot as markets react to the historical EU Council agreement overnight which saw EU leaders agree on a EUR 750bln recovery fund (390bln grants, 360bln loans) and EUR 1.074trl 2021-27 budget. The DAX (+1.7%) is currently outperforming its peers as the index briefly returned to marginal positive territory for the year and is now around 4% away from its all-time high posted on February 19th. Aside from events in Brussels, support for the index has also emanated from the autos & parts sector with Continental (+3.8%) a noteworthy outperformer after prelim Q2 revenues exceeded expectations, furthermore, index-heavyweight Bayer (+1.4%) have been granted some reprieve this morning amid a 92% reduction in the Roundup Weedkiller verdict. Elsewhere from a sectoral standpoint, banks sit at the top of the leaderboard following the aforementioned EU agreement, whilst UBS (+3.5%) have also lent a helping hand to the industry after with its Q2 decline in net profit was not as bad as some had feared. Healthcare names are the laggard in Europe (albeit marginally positive on the session) with AstraZeneca (-1.3%) taking a breather from yesterday’s COVID-19-induced gains. Other notable movers include Novartis (-0.9%) after Q2 revenues and EPS fell short of expectations, whilst GVC (-11.7%) sit at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 after HMRC announced it is to expand the scope of an investigation into its former Turkish Business.

Top European News

  • Continental Sales Beat Estimates, But Car Supplier Is Wary
  • Danske Seen Axing at Least 1,000 Jobs in ‘Significant’ Move
  • Ladbrokes Owner GVC Plunges as U.K. Widens Turkish Investigation
  • Coal’s Demise Forces $1 Billion Writedown for Swedish Utility

In FX, another upturn in broad risk sentiment, partly tech sector driven, but also backed up by ongoing strength in precious metals, has helped the Aussie extend gains across the board with Aud/Usd eyeing the current 2020 high at 0.7063 and Aud/Nzd rebounding through 1.0700. However, the latest advances were also forged in wake of RBA minutes and comments from Governor Lowe, as the former underlined stabilisation in the economy after a less severe than previously envisaged downturn and the latter stated a desire to see a weaker Aud, but no intention to intervene. Moreover, the Minister for Resources flagged record Chinese demand despite the spat as reason for Australia gleaning protection from even worse post-coronavirus conditions, albeit not accounting for the more recent outbreak in Victoria.

  • CAD/NOK/SEK/GBP – The next best performing majors, and ensuring that the DXY remains depressed below 96.000, as the Loonie probes above 1.3500 ahead of Canadian retail sales data with some support from firm crude prices, while the Norwegian and Swedish Crowns continue their ascent vs the US Dollar and Euro, with Eur/Nok now under 10.5100 and Eur/Sek approaching 10.2400. Similarly, Sterling is gathering fresh technical momentum and Cable has probed 1.2700 on the way through the 200 DMA before drifting back, with Eur/Gbp hovering near the base of a 0.9050-10 range as the single currency pares initial gains made on the EU Recovery Fund deal.
  • NZD/CHF/JPY/EUR/USD – Relative G10 laggards, with the Kiwi capped ahead of 0.6600, Franc unable to bounce far from 0.9400, Yen caught in a narrow sub-107.00 corridor and Euro waning between 1.1470-24 parameters even though the Greenback has sustained more losses overall. In terms of more specific impulses, Swiss trade data revealed a wider trade surplus and less steep slide in watch exports, Usd/Jpy may be influenced by decent option expiry interest from 107.30 to 107.40 (1.5 bn) and the single currency seems prone to further buy rumour, sell fact trade after the aforementioned EU package that was largely as expected in terms of size and structure. Back to the Buck, some respite after the index dipped below Fib support at 95.622 to 95.610, but not enough to reclaim 96.000 in the run up to June’s national activity index and Redbook sales.
  • EM – No real surprise to see the Rand revel in Gold’s illustrious performance and the Rouble rally with Brent, but the Mexican Peso is also benefiting from the rebound in oil.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have rallied somewhat this morning with sentiment in general bolstered post the European Council coming to agreement overnight. Price action has seen WTI & Brent September futures hit highs of USD 42.02/bbl and USD 44.49/bbl respectively so far, levels which we remain in relative proximity to at present. Newsflow for the complex itself has once again been very sparse with no scheduled events for the complex this week aside from the weekly releases which see the private inventory report tonight; some expectations looking for a draw of 750k, compared to the previous weeks draw of 8.3mln. As a reminder for the complex today the Aug’20 WTI future is set to expire. Turning to spot gold, where the metal remains elevated with the DXY firmer but still capped by 96.00 with the precious metal itself not far from the September 2011 high of USD 1827.88/oz; currently, the sessions peak is USD 1824.55/oz. Upward price action assisted by total gold ETF holdings increasing for 17 continuous days by ~2.68mln/oz, via ING. Elsewhere, overnight updates from mining names including Vale who see iron ore production at the lower end of guidance as the most probable scenario and BHP seeing copper production volumes slightly lower in 2021.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 4, prior 2.6

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

First though let’s look at the news that EU leaders have finally reached a deal overnight on the EU recovery fund. The confirmed final deal includes €390bn of grants, down from the initial €500bn, along with €360bn of low-interest loans. Leaders also agreed on the EU’s next seven-year budget, worth over €1tn. European Council President Michel, said in a press conference following confirmation, that “Europe is strong. Europe is united” and “we have reached a deal on the recovery package and the European budget. These were of course difficult negotiations in very difficult times for all Europeans. This is a good deal. This is a strong deal”.

In terms of the details, to assuage the Frugal 4 the plan will see Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria and Sweden get a boost to their budget rebates, as had been expected. According to the FT, Netherlands PM Rutte also secured a condition that would allow any country to raise concerns that another was not honoring promises to reform its economy and temporarily halt transfers of EU recovery money. The plan also includes a condition to allow a weighted majority of EU governments to block payments to a particular country over rule-of-law violations.

The euro is trading little changed at $1.143 as we go to print which reflects the fact that much of this was already priced in. DAX futures and STOXX 50 futures are up a little over +0.50% and that follows a broadly positive tone across Asia too where the Nikkei (+0.68%), Hang Seng (+1.88%), Shanghai Comp (+0.07%), Kospi (+1.56%) and ASX (+2.03%) are all up. Futures on the S&P 500 are also up +0.15%.

European markets closed ahead of the summit conclusion, but the reaction was positive as investors priced in the strong chance of an agreement given that leaders had been prepare to extend this far. Sovereign debt rallied across the continent, with peripheral debt (in particular Italy’s) leading the advance. In fact by the close, the spread of Italian (-5.3bps) and Spanish (-4.1bps) 10yr yields over bunds had fallen to their lowest levels in over 4 months, with 2y BTP yields actually closing in negative territory again for the first time since early March. Meanwhile the euro itself rose for the 6th time in the last 7 sessions against the US dollar, reaching a 4-month high of $1.145, just shy of the $1.145 closing high for the year reached back in March.

In terms of the broader moves yesterday, equities generally moved higher on both sides of the Atlantic as the promising news on the recovery fund and vaccine developments (more below) came through. By the end of the session the S&P 500 (+0.84%) and the STOXX 600 (+0.75%) had both reached a new post-pandemic high, with tech stocks among the outperformers as the NASDAQ achieved yet another all-time high after the small underperformance last week, gaining +2.51%. Even with the mostly positive vaccine news, the S&P was led by the stay-at-home trade with AMZN (+7.93%), Citrix (+7.64%), and ServiceNow (+6.51%) the best performing stocks in the index, while airlines such as United Airlines were among the worst performers (-4.69%). US Treasuries rallied along with their European counterparts with 10yr yields falling -1.6bps.

On the coronavirus, the main development yesterday came from the Oxford vaccine trial, where results published in The Lancet journal showed that the vaccine led to increased levels of antibodies and T-cells, and did not cause serious adverse side effects. This was as part of the Phase 1 trial that involved 1,077 adults back in April-May. In response to the news, AstraZeneca shares surged to an intraday high of +10.16%, although they later gave up those gains to close just +1.45% higher. It seems it might have been a case of buy the rumor, sell the fact as these results were hyped up last week and perhaps didn’t exceed expectations.

There is no doubt the news over the last few weeks on vaccine developments have been incrementally positive. However it is still likely to be some months before the leaders complete the trial stages and are in a position for mass distribution if we get that far. And with society still needing to find a way to live with the coronavirus, news came through yesterday of further restrictions in the US, with Chicago announcing they were retightening restrictions on bars and restaurants, and NY Governor Cuomo threatening to close all bars and restaurants if social distancing rules continued to be broken. That said, in three of the worst affected states, case growth was below the previous 7-day average, with Florida (3% vs. 3.8% previously), California (2.3% vs. 2.7%) and Arizona (1.1% vs. 2.3% previously) seeing a slowdown in the number of new cases. The US overall saw cases rise by 1.5% vs. the weekly average of 1.9%. There continues to be some Monday effects as states try and catch up from lower testing levels on the weekend, however 7-day averages for these states continue to slow slightly from what we saw 1-2 weeks back. The attention now moves to how the states’ economies have been affected and how quickly they can more fully suppress the spread.

Against this backdrop, and worries that rising case growth in the southern US has in turn led to a reversal in the economic recovery, US stimulus talks have taken front stage as there will be concerns for how much financial conditions could tighten in the US if something is not done by the end of the month. Yesterday, White House officials met with senior Republican Congress officials to hammer out details of the newest relief bill. U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the next round of stimulus will focus on incentives for getting children back to school and workers back to their jobs. He noted that Republicans are “starting with another trillion dollars”, which is a change from senators who said $1tr was their ceiling. House Republican leader McCarthy, told reporters that the initial Republican proposal would include cutting the payroll tax, which has been a central demand of President Trump, and will include another round of direct stimulus payments to individuals. Though the direct payments may be more tailored this time around. One big sticking point for the GOP and Democrats will be any additional aid for state and local governments, and Democratic proposals to keep supplemental payments for unemployment insurance at the $600. Overnight, Bloomberg has reported that Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows will meet House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer today afternoon to start negotiations on the stimulus bill.

In other news, Bloomberg has reported that Judy Shelton, President Donald Trump’s pick to join the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, was poised to clear a key hurdle to confirmation after Louisiana Senator John Kennedy said overnight that he would back Shelton. Shelton and fellow nominee Christopher Waller, director of research at the St. Louis Fed, will finally receive their committee votes more than five months after appearing before the panel to answer questions. The committee will meet at 2 pm Washington time.

Back to markets and another asset class that performed strongly yesterday were precious metals, which have done well this year on the back of demand for haven assets and high central bank liquidity. By the close, gold had reached a fresh 8-year high of $1,818, with the advance cementing its performance as one of the top assets on an YTD basis, being up +19.80% since the start of the year. Meanwhile, silver advanced +3.01% to reach a 3-year high, and both platinum (+0.98%) and palladium (+1.49%) recorded strong performances. Other commodities had a more subdued performance however, with Brent Crude (+0.32%) and WTI (+0.54%) both just slightly higher.

There wasn’t a great deal on the data front yesterday, though Germany’s PPI reading showed producer prices falling by -1.8% year-on-year in June (vs. -1.7% expected). The other data out was the Euro Area current account balance, with the current account surplus in May coming in at €8.0bn, which was its lowest level since June 2015.

To the day ahead now, and data highlights include UK public sector borrowing for June, Canada’s retail sales for May, and from the US there’s the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for June. Central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, while earnings releases feature The Coca-Cola Company, Texas Instruments, Philip Morris and Lockheed Martin.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.75 POINTS OR 0.20%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 577.67 POINTS OR 1.31%   /The Nikkei closed UP 166.74 POINTS OR 0.73%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 2.56%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9890 /Oil UP TO 42.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and 44.59 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9890 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9863 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Robert to me:

Robert 

 

4:57 PM (20 minutes ago)

to

China exodus in real time

In the last several months, I have written about the reality that companies will leave China as the danger of being China centric is simply too great a risk for most supply chains. When you factor in their involvement in the virus coverup along with their own financial overreach and climate related pestilence and flooding, China has become a risk too many.
In the case of Japan which does over 20% in  trade with China, the telling sign is that 87 companies are in the midst of piling their factories out of China with 57 coming back to japan and 30 going elsewhere in Asia. This is being done with Financial assistance from Japan and means many thousands of jobs lost with a resulting multiplier effect of lost jobs within China.
What started not long ago as a trickle is becoming a flood of exiting activity that will directly affect China’s ability to create employment lessening their economic growth.Cheers
Robert

3 C CHINA

CHINA

China’s new offering in Hong Kong and Beijing signals the start of its de dollarization program

(zerohedge)

Jack Ma’s Ant IPO Signals Start Of De-Dollarization

Authored by Bloomberg macro commentator Ye Xie

Monday’s trading saw a continuation of recent themes.

  1. Winners among the sectors least affected by the virus: the Nasdaq Composite Index rose to another record
  2. More government and central bank stimulus is coming: 10-year real Treasury yields are inching toward an all-time low, and the two-year Italian BTP yield turned negative again
  3. The stimulus suppresses asset volatility
  4. The dollar has peaked. The DXY Index is testing the post-Covid lows
  5. Buying the dip in risky assets makes sense because they have an imbedded call option on a vaccine. As time passes by, the chance of a medical breakthrough increases

Back in China, the biggest news overnight was that Jack Ma’s Ant Group is seeking a valuation of more than $200 billion as it goes public in Hong Kong and Shanghai. It could seek to raise more in its IPO than Saudi Aramco’s record $29 billion haul, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The significance of this deal is multifold:

  • It would be the biggest IPO ever on mainland exchanges, smashing the record $10 billion debut by Agriculture Bank of China in 2010.
  • It signifies the rise of New China in the form of private high-tech companies, as opposed to the Old China dominated by state-owned banks and energy giants.
  • And it lends much needed credibility to the Shanghai stock exchange’s STAR board, which is designed to harbor tech startups.

More importantly, the choice of Shanghai and Hong Kong for listing signals China’s deliberate efforts to reduce its reliance on the U.S. capital market for fund-raising amid the tension between the two countries. Already, Chinese and Hong Kong exchanges accommodated the world’s biggest four public listings this year, including Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. and JD.com.

Considering everything from the U.S.’s threat to delist Chinese companies, to moves to strip Hong Kong of its special status, it’s more than clear that China is starting its process of de-dollarization and furthering the internationalization of its own currency.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

A UK trade group now warns that there is no V shaped job recovery and warns of a jobs bloodbath

(zerohedge)

UK Trade Group Warns Of “Jobs Bloodbath” And No V-Shaped Recovery 

Europe is facing a deeper recession in 2020 than previously thought, while the UK economy could shrink by 10% this year.

The shape of the UK recovery is turning out to be anything but a “V,” forcing more than half of the manufacturers in the country to reduce their respective labor forces in the back half of the year, according to Make UK’s latest Manufacturing Monitor survey.

The second round of job layoffs could be much deadlier for the economy than the first. Why is that? Well, it’s being called a “jobs bloodbath” by Make UK, because high-value skill jobs are the next to be axed. 

The survey, which covered 170 companies between 7 and 14 July, shows 53% of manufacturers across the automotive and aerospace sectors are expecting layoffs of highly skilled workers by the end of the year. Make UK said these high-value sectors have long supply chains that employ tens of thousands of people directly and indirectly. If these jobs are lost due to an extended downturn, it would be disastrous for the economy and suggest a recovery could take years.

Take, for example, Airbus. The European planemaker, with production sites in the UK, said in late June it would cut 15,000 workers across its entire global workforce and doesn’t expect a recovery in air travel until 2023.

Make UK’s warning about high-value job loss comes as the UK economy is expected to shrink by nearly 10% this year, making it one of the worst-hit economies on the continent.

“At present, the prospect of a V shaped recovery for Industry seems remote.” said Stephen Phipson, CEO of Make UK. 

With no “V” shaped recovery expected, the government might have to support additional rounds of its furlough scheme that pays wages of more than 9 million people. The program is expected to be round down in August and halted in late October.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/RUSSIA, INDIA THE USA/AUSTRALIA//THE GLOBE

COVID-19 Outbreaks In US, Russia & India Show Promising Slowdown As China Imposes New Restrictions On Air Travel: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Victoria reports 374 new cases
  • Russia reports just 5,842 new cases
  • Beijing requires all foreign travelers to show negative COVID-19 test results
  • India’s Delhi region confirms fewest new cases in 6 weeks
  • US reports roughly 62k new cases yesterday
  • Iran suffers record death toll
  • The EU has reportedly reached a deal on rescue fund

* * *

As we begin our COVID-19 news rundown for Tuesday, the Australian state of Victoria reported 374 new cases of coronavirus and three deaths on Tuesday as mask wearing will become mandatory in the state, a large swath of which (the city of Melbourne) is already under lockdown.

Yesterday, BBG reported that many Russian elites have  been injected with an experimental COVID-19 vaccine as early as April, a story that, if accurate, would appear to undermine the UK’s claims that Russia-backed hackers stole British vaccine research.

On Tuesday, Russia reported 5,842 new cases of the novel coronavirus, pushing its total infection tally to 783,328, still the fourth largest tally in the world, although the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 countries – the US, Brazil and India – are pulling further and further ahead.

Russia’s coronavirus response center said 153 people had died in the past 24 hours, pushing Russia’s death toll to 12,580.

In the first sign that India’s outbreak may have finally peaked after the country reported a record 40k+ new cases in  one day, the Indian Union territory of Delhi has registered fewer than 1,000 new cases in a day for the first time in 6 weeks. The chief minister of the region reported Monday night that the region reported just 954 cases the prior day.

Though markets seesawed briefly after the news was released, the Lancet’s publication of the results from the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine candidate’s Phase 1/2 trial predictably sent stocks ripping higher.

In China, after moving to reopen international air travel more quickly than the US had anticipated, officials imposed new rules on Tuesday for foreign passengers arriving in the country: All will now be required to provide negative COVID-19 test results before they board any China-bound flights. The tests must be from 5 days before the flight, the Civil Aviation Administration of China said in a statement.

Beijing has also announced plans to provide free COVID-19 tests to residents of Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang which is experiencing an outbreak.

The EU has reportedly managed to reach a deal to boost the bloc’s post-pandemic economies after Charles Michel, president of the European Council and chair of the summit, offered compromises over the €750 billion ($860 billion) recovery fund that will be the first fiscal vehicle jointly funded by the EU27 members. The “Frugal Four” have apparently shown a willingness to accept the following adjustments: Outright non-repayable grants will account for just €390 billion ($446 billion) compared with the €500 billion originally proposed. Disbursements will also be linked to governments observing the rule of law.

Around the world, more than 14.7 million people have been diagnosed with the virus. Nearly 610,000 of these have died, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The US has recorded nearly 141,000 deaths, the most in the world.

Worldometer counter roughly 62,000 new cases in the US reported yesterday, as the daily totals continue to slow.

In Japan, five new novel coronavirus patients have been identified at US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma on Okinawa.

In Iran, public health authorities have recorded yet another record death toll with 229 deaths from the new coronavirus in the past 24 hours, health ministry figures showed. Iran, the Middle East country hardest hit by the pandemic, started relaxing its lockdown back in April.

END

EGYPT/LIBYA/TURKEY/RUSSIA

Egypt’s Parliament approves ground troop deployment to back Haftar in Libya against Turkish forces

(zerohedge)

Egypt’s Parliament Approves Ground Troop Deployment To Back Haftar In Libya

Libya’s proxy war just grew hotter, with outside powers supporting opposite sides of the conflict finding themselves more directly intervening on Libyan soil.

Though Turkey, which supports Tripoli’s UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) has sent troops and weapons since last year to help fend off Haftar’s (now failed) advance on the capital, Egypt just made a huge and unprecedented move.

On Monday Egypt’s parliament voted to approve sending its armed forces to fight “criminal militias” and “foreign terrorist groups” on a “Western front”. Previously Egypt has only flown sorties over neighboring Libya, however, this would mark the first ever direct ground intervention.

 

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, right, with Khalifa Haftar, the head of the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) meeting in Cairo last year, via AP.

Though the parliamentary vote didn’t name Libya directly, it’s widely known that “Western front” is a clear reference to the growing chaos along Egypt’s border with Libya. Cairo continues to see Haftar as a necessary ‘stabilizer’ for the country which has remained in a state of chaos and bloodshet since the US-NATO toppling of Gaddafi in 2011.

The parliament unanimously voted for “the deployment of members of the Egyptian armed forces on combat missions outside Egypt’s borders to defend Egyptian national security… against criminal armed militias and foreign terrorist elements,” according to a statement.

Reuters underscores that the vote is a big deal and somewhat unprecedented:

Egyptian state TV later ran banners on the screen saying: “Egypt and Libya, one people, one fate.”

The last time Egypt sent ground troops abroad for combat was in 1991 in Kuwait as part of a U.S.-led coalition to drive out Iraqi troops.

 

Al Jazeera: Egyptian General Mamdoh Shahen during the parliamentary debate session on the deployment of troops outside the country [Khaled Mashaal/EPA]

This comes after weeks of Egyptian President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi making threats against both Tripoli and its Turkish backer.

Regional media has even speculated of late that Turkey and Egypt are fast stumbling toward war inside Libya.

Indeed Monday’s parliamentary approval for Sisi’s Libya policy brings the two major regional players much closer to direct clash.

end

 

6.Global Issues

GLOBE

As the coronavirus spreads throughout the globe, the world recovery is basically non existent as economies are shut down

(zerohedge)

World Recovery Running On Fumes As Virus Pandemic Reemerges

The resurgence of the virus pandemic is at risk of derailing the global economic recovery.

Goldman Sach’s latest Coronavirus Global Activity Tracker, published each Wednesday to track the impact of the virus outbreak on economic activity on a per-country basis, shows mobility, industrial activity, consumer activity, labor market, and travel trends are stalling in major economies.

The note first points out mobility data in Croatia, Israel, Australia, Japan, and Hong Kong, has likely peaked after surging for a couple of months due to, in some of these countries, surging virus cases. On a weekly percentage change basis, all countries, except for Croatia, have seen mobility trends in late June turn lower.

​Goldman’s industrial activity trackers were stable in China and the US, at 4% YoY and -11% YoY, respectively. China’s industrial revival post-pandemic lockdowns has been more robust than the US.

There is no V-shaped recovery here. Goldman’s industrial activity trackers also show activity levels around 90% of pre-corona levels in June across G4 countries. Rebounds in BRICs have been much softer than developed economies.

​The note transitions from examining industrial activity to the consumer. To sum up, the consumer in the US and China are still fragile in the first week of July.

​As we’ve covered in several recent pieces, global restaurant bookings on a YoY percentage change stalled in mid/late June.

​Goldman’s trackers on global movie theaters is self-explanatory.

​Global retail and recreation activities stalled in June then edged lower through the first week of July.

​Global workplace visits stalled as early May 30 and trended lower through July 11.

​As for travel, we’ve noted countless times, the recovery is years away.

​Goldman concludes the note by saying the virus-induced recession will have “scarring effects” on the global economy. We’ve noted these scarring effects are rising bankruptcies, permanent job loss, and social unrest that will result in a prolonged downturn, if not a double-dip recession for the US, and maybe other region regions in the world dealing with similar socio-economic chaos and rising virus cases.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

What a Biden presidency will do to the oil markets;  Iran will flood the oil markets with oil

Paraskova/OilPrice.com

Iran Could Flood Oil Markets If Biden Becomes US President

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

If presumptive Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins the presidential election in November, Iran could suddenly turn from a bullish driver for oil prices into a bearish factor if it resumes up to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil exports.   Currently, there is a consensus among analysts and international agencies that the oil market is tightening and will continue to tighten, lifting oil prices through next year.

Oil demand is expected to rise next year by between 5 million bpd and 7 million bpd compared to this year’s lows, according to OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA)—in the absence of a mass return to lockdowns. The OPEC+ group is set to further ease its collective production cuts. In theory, the current expectations of supply and demand in 2021 are bullish for oil prices.

Yet, the market shouldn’t discount one political and geopolitical factor that could upend current oil price forecasts for next year. The U.S. presidential election in November could install a new administration in the White House – of a President Biden – that would be inclined to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal and potentially ease the current sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports. 

The return of 1-2 million bpd of Iranian oil on the global market would cap oil price gains next year, a leading oil analyst said last week.

If you have Joe Biden as president he could basically take the US back into the [Iranian] Nuclear deal and you could see a million plus Iranian barrels hit the market. These are the kind of things I think will be very important into the trajectory of oil into 2021,” Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told Business Insider in an interview last week.

If Biden wins the November election, he could be inclined to revisit and renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal, potentially easing some sanctions in exchange for Tehran returning to compliance under some revised form of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

“The recent killing of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, removed a dangerous actor but also raised the prospect of an ever-escalating cycle of violence in the region, and it has prompted Tehran to jettison the nuclear limits established under the nuclear deal,” Biden wrote in an essay in Foreign Affairs earlier this year.

Tehran must return to strict compliance with the deal. If it does so, I would rejoin the agreement and use our renewed commitment to diplomacy to work with our allies to strengthen and extend it, while more effectively pushing back against Iran’s other destabilizing activities,” he said.

Iran’s oil will not return overnight to the market if Biden becomes president. But the prospect of renegotiation of the nuclear deal will likely keep oil prices depressed, making Iran a bearish factor for the market. This would be in contrast with the bullish factor that Iran has been for oil prices during the Trump Administration so far, with the renewed sanctions on its oil and the occasional flare-up of Iran-U.S. and Iran-Saudi tensions in the most important oil shipping lane in the world, the Strait of Hormuz.

“But if we are talking about a recovery into the $50-60 a barrel next year, a million or even two million barrels of Iranian exports hitting the market is going to put a temporary lid on how high prices can go,” RBC’s Croft told Business Insider.

Iran’s current crude oil exports are estimated at between 100,000 bpd and just over 200,000 bpd, compared to 2.5 million bpd in April 2018, just before President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal and re-imposed sanctions on its oil.

It’s not clear how fast Iran could boost its oil production in case sanctions are eased and exports become no longer punishable. But the Islamic Republic has a lot of oil in storage, due to the sanctions and the pandemic. In early July, Iran probably had more than 50 million barrels of oil stored in tankers at sea and more than 60 million barrels in onshore storage, analysts and industry sources told Reuters earlier this month.

Nothing is certain in the oil markets, especially in today’s global economic and health crisis, but a Biden presidency could turn Iran from a bullish into a bearish factor for oil prices.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1440 DOWN .0016 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.27 UP 0.080 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2695   UP   0.0035  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3462 DOWN .0062 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 16 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1440 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 6.75 POINTS OR 0.20% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 577.67 POINTS OR 1.31%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 2,56%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 577.67 POINTS OR 2.31%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.75 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 2.56% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 166.74  POINTS OR 0.73%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1827.50

silver:$20.54-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.62% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.32 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 95.77 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.36% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +02%  DOWN 1/2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.37%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,08 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 71 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.45% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.53% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1492  UP     .0036 or 36 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.81 DOWN .380 OR YEN UP 38  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2746 UP .0086 POUND UP 86  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 85 basis points to 1.3440

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9801    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9810  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  6.84634 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.60 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.31 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.40 DOWN 43  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 5.11  0.15%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 141.52 POINTS OR 1.08%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 13.37 POINTS 0.26%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 15.10 POINTS or 0.20%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 133.19 POINTS OR 0.65%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 42.18 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 44.30 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    80.63  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.19 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 19 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.45 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  41.96//

 

 

BRENT :  44.20

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.61..down one basis point…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.31..down one basis point..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1525 ( UP 69   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.79 DOWN .396 (YEN UP 40 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.20 DOWN 64 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2736 UP 75  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 6.820

 

 

the Russian rouble 70.73   UP 0.69 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 69 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3456 UP 70 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.45%

 

The Dow closed UP 149.72 POINTS OR 0.56%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 86.73 POINTS OR 0.81%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  24.93 CLOSED UP .47

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.257%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Gold Soars, Euro Roars As Dollar Dumps And Stocks Slump

For much of the day, the dominant theme was one of dollar weakness which saw the Bloomberg dollar index tumble below 1,200 and also take out the June 10 lows…

… the direct result of not just cable strength, as the sterling hit its 5-week highs, but mostly due to the ongoing surge in the EURUSD which continued its recent ascent, catalyzed by today’s successful conclusion of the EU summit where the stimulus package was finally approved after five days of discussions.

And as the dollar tumbled, gold has continued its impressive surge, rising to $1,840 and now less than $100 away from its all time highs hit in September 2011. Even more remarkable, perhaps is that silver has also finally caught a bid, surging by more than $1 today, to trade at $21.20, surpassing the highs set in 2016, and now trading at a level not seen since 2014.

A zoomed in version of the chart above just covering the YTD period shows the impressive acceleration in silver in recent days…

… and if one goes by the long-term gold/silver ratio chart, silver still has a ways to go before catching up to its average of 60x. All else equal, if one assumes a gold price of $1,840, silver has about $10 of upside to go just to catch up to its historical “fair value”.

So what about stocks? Well Europe was happy, with the Stoxx 600 rising to a new 5 month high, if still having a ways to go until it is unchanged for the year, a feat which Germany’s DAX has almost achieved already.

In the US, things were more dramatic, with the Dow Jones blasting off out of the gate, while the Nasdaq slumped erasing some of its massive Monday gains as traders took profit in the FAAMGs even as IBM jumped after sales topped forecasts.

The Nasdaq 100 edged lower after closing at an all-time high on Monday, up 25% YTD, with investors awaiting a barrage of megacap tech earnings later this week. And while the S&P and the Dow were trading notably higher for much of the day, they gave up all most gains shortly after 3pm when Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell was quoted as saying he does not expect the next stimulus bill to pass by next week, in effect ending the massive benefits that US consumer have gotten used to in the past three months, and hammering consumer shares.

It only got worse toward the close, when a sizable $1.8BN Market on Close sell imbalance hammered stocks, and sent the S&P cash into the red, and less than 1% up on the year.

Oil’s surge lifted Exxon Mobil and Chevron in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Brent jumped more than $1, rising just shy of $45, while WTI traded at $41.76, both hitting the highest levels since March on hopes reflation will bloom thanks to Europe’s €750BN stimulus fund.

Meanwhile, with bonds no longer reflecting anything besides the Fed’s liquidity and YCC intentions, the 10Y went nowhere – and has gone nowhere in the past week – keeping the curve trading in a painfully narrow range.

Finally, with the VIX sliding to its lowest level since March, the “fear index” ramped higher all day, and closed just shy of session highs in what may be an ominous reversal which kept the VIX just above 25.

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Stocks Slide After McConnell Says No Relief Bill By Next Week

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told Politico on Tuesday that he doesn’t expect Congress to pass the next relief bill by next week, in stark contrast to a prediction by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

McConnell said earlier that there are some ‘differences of opinion’ over a payroll tax cut wanted by the White House, and instead said that the GOP would introduce a bill over the next few days which would be a starting point for negotiations with Democrats.

McConnell did say that another round of direct payments to US citizens was in the cards. He did not elaborate on the size of the payments or income requirements, though he has previously said that payments would be made to those who make $40,000 per year or less.

Stocks began sliding following McConnell’s comments.

According to Forbes, the next stimulus package will likely extend the $600 weekly boost to unemployment insurance under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) included in the CARES act.

GOP lawmakers have discussed reducing PUA to only $200 per week, according to The Washington Post. McConnell didn’t mention extending the benefits during his Tuesday speech.

The lowered PUA comes after weeks of debate in Washington, D.C., about how helpful—or unhelpful—the unemployment boost has been for Americans. GOP lawmakers long argued that the boost “disincentivized” Americans to return to work, since many were making the same amount or more on unemployment with the boost than they did before losing their jobs. –Forbes

McConnell also indicated that the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) may receive a top-off in order to help “hard-hit businesses.” The program provides loans to companies employing fewer than 500 workers, and was previously funded to the tune of $650 billion according to the report.

Meanwhile, the GOP proposal will also reportedly set aside $105 billion for schools and educators. “This majority is preparing legislation that will send $105 billion so that educators have the resources they need to safely reopen,” said McConnell. “That is more money than the House Democrats set aside for a similar fund, by the way. And that’s in addition to support for child care needs.”

The GOP plan will also include more funding for COVID-19 testing.

“Our proposal will dedicate even more resources to the fastest race for a new vaccine in human history, along with diagnostics and treatments … And the federal government will continue to support hospitals, providers and testing,” said McConnell.

END

 The right coast of the uSA experiencing a massive heat wave:

(zerohedge)

Electricity Demand Surges As 70 Million Americans Roast Under ‘Heat Dome’

If readers on the U.S. East Coast have stepped outside today, whoa! The heat is unbearable, especially in New York City.

At the moment, 70 million Americans from Maine to South Carolina are roasting in a massive heat dome, reported Accuweather. The result of the heatwave has been a significant spike in energy demand from residential and commercial structures.

AccuWeather shows temperatures across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Rust Belt are registering between 90F and 100F.

New York’s Central Park hit 92F in the early afternoon hours Monday and could rise to the mid/high 90s by late afternoon. The heat index in New Jersey could soon hit 110F and be around 108F in Washington, D.C.

Bloomberg reports the heat dome has pressured energy grids in the Northeast, resulting in a massive surge in energy demand. Shown below, New York City electricity demand surged to the highest level in seven years on Monday.

Matt Rogers, president of the Commodity Weather Group LLC., said eastern parts of PJM Interconnection LLC. (from Chicago to Washington) are expected to see spiking energy demand as residential and commercial structures turn thermostats lower to stay cool on Monday.

Jim Rouiller, the lead meteorologist at the Energy Weather Group LLC., said population-weighted cooling degree days, the measurement of energy demand that it takes to cool a structure, could register the highest energy demand for July since the 1950s.

Meteorologist Brian Hurley at the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center said record-high temperatures for the date on Sunday were recorded in eight cities, including Washington at Dulles International Airport; Richmond, Virginia; Manchester, New Hampshire; and Plattsburgh, New York.

Hurley said Norfolk, Virginia, hit 101F on Sunday, which is an anomaly considering the metro area is situated on the ocean.

Rouiller said above-normal temperatures are expected to continue in the Northeast through the first week of August.

“The risk is there for renewed heatwave episodes continuing well into August,” he said.

Rouiller warned this summer could be one of the hottest in two decades.

 END
Another one bites the dust: the world’s largest producer of small gasoline engines files for bankruptcy: Briggs and Stratton
(zerohedge)

World’s Largest Producer Of Small Gasoline Engines Files For Bankruptcy

Briggs & Stratton Corporation, the world’s largest manufacturer of small gasoline engines with headquarters in Wauwatosa, Wisconsin, filed petitions on Monday morning for a court-supervised voluntary reorganization under Chapter 11, along with plans to sell “all the company’s assets” to KPS Capital Partners.

The Fortune 1000 manufacturer of gasoline engines was able to secure a $677.5 million in Debtor-In-Possession (DIP) financing to support operations through reorganization efforts. The Company also said it “entered into a definitive stock and asset purchase agreement with KPS.”

To facilitate the sale process and address its debt obligations, the Company has filed petitions for a court-supervised voluntary reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The Company has also obtained $677.5 million in DIP financing, with $265 million committed by KPS and the remaining $412.5 from the Company’s existing group of ABL lenders. Following court approval, the DIP facility will ensure that the Company has sufficient liquidity to continue normal operations and to meet its financial obligations during the Chapter 11 process, including the timely payment of employee wages and health benefits, continued servicing of customer orders and shipments, and other obligations.

This process will allow the Company to ensure the viability of its business while providing sufficient liquidity to fully support operations through the closing of the transaction. Briggs & Stratton believes this process will benefit its employees, customers, channel partners, and suppliers, and best positions the Company for long-term success. This filing does not include any of Briggs & Stratton’s international subsidiaries. – Briggs & Stratton’s press release states

Todd Teske, Briggs & Stratton’s CEO, stated the Company faced “challenges” during the virus pandemic that made reorganization “necessary and appropriate” for the survivability of the Company.

“Over the past several months, we have explored multiple options with our advisors to strengthen our financial position and flexibility. The challenges we have faced during the COVID-19 pandemic have made reorganization the difficult but necessary and appropriate path forward to secure our business. It also gives us support to execute on our strategic plans to bring greater value to our customers and channel partners. Throughout this process, Briggs & Stratton products will continue to be produced, distributed, sold and fully backed by our dedicated team,” said Teske.

Briggs & Stratton is the world’s top engine designer and manufacturer for outdoor power equipment, with 85% of the small engines produced in the U.S. The pandemic and resulting virus-induced recession have been brutal for the Company, with declining engine sales, resulting in a reduction in the US workforce.

Financial Times noted, in June, the Company had difficulty refinancing a $175 million bond that matured in September. Sources told FT the Company’s deteriorating position made it impossible to obtain refinancing funds in the bond market.

Add Briggs & Stratton to the list of bankrupted companies as an avalanche of bankruptcies is expected in the second half of the year.

Not surprising whatsoever, Robinhood daytraders have panic bought collapsing Briggs & Stratton shares.

The bankruptcy wave is not over, it’s only getting started as the virus-induced recession will be more prolonged than previously thought.

END
Commercial Mortgage delinquencies are now nearing record levels.
(zerohedge)

Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies Near Record Levels

Delinquency rates across commercial properties have shot up faster than at any other time.

As thousands of restaurants, hotels, and local businesses in the U.S. struggle to stay open, delinquency rates across commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – fixed income investments backed by a pool of commercial mortgages – have tripled in three months to 10.32%.

As Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld notes, in just a few months, delinquency rates have already effectively reached their 2012 peaks. To put this in perspective, consider that it took well over two years for mortgage delinquency rates to reach the same historic levels in the aftermath of the housing crisis of 2009.

The above chart draws data from Trepp and illustrates the recent shocks to the CMBS market, broken down by property type.

Storm Rumblings

While there is optimism in some areas of the market, accommodation mortgages have witnessed delinquency rates soar over 24%.

Amid strict containment efforts in April, average revenues per room plummeted all the way to $16 per night—an 84% drop.

Similarly, retail properties have been rattled. Almost one-fifth are in delinquencies. From January-June 2020, at least 15 major retailers have filed for bankruptcy and over $20 billion in CMBS loans have exposure to flailing chains such as JCPenney, Neiman Marcus, and Macy’s.

On the other hand, industrial property types have remained stable, hovering close to their January levels. This is likely attributable in part to the fact that the rise in e-commerce sales have helped support warehouse operations.

For multifamily and office buildings, Washington’s stimulus packages have helped renters to continue making payments thus far. Still, as the government considers ending stimulus packages in the near future, a lack of relief funding could spell trouble.

Weighing the Impact on U.S. Cities

How do delinquency rates vary across the top metropolitan areas in America?

Below, we can see that the delinquent balance and delinquency rates vary widely by city. Note that this data is for private-labeled CMBS, which are issued by investment banks and private entities rather than government agencies.

Despite the New York city metropolitan area having a delinquent balance of $7 billion, its delinquency rates fall on the lower end of the spectrum, at 7%. New York alone accounts for 18% of the total balance of private-label CMBS.

By comparison, the Syracuse metropolitan area has an eye-opening delinquency rate of 69%. Syracuse is home to the shopping complex, Destiny USA, which is facing tenant uncertainties due to COVID-19. The six-story mall attracts 26 million visitors annually.

Like the overall market, delinquencies are being driven by accommodation and retail properties across many of these U.S. metropolitan areas.

What Comes Next

What happens when delinquency rates get too high?

Often, when borrowers do not make payment after a reasonable amount of time, they enter into default. While time ranges can vary, defaults typically take place after at least 60 days of nonpayment. Between May and June, defaults in the CMBS market surged 792% to $5.5 billion.

As effects reverberate, properties could eventually fall into foreclosure. At the same time, institutional investors who own these types of securities, which include pensions, could begin seeing steep losses.

That said, the Federal Reserve has set up mechanisms to purchase CMBS loans with the highest credit quality. This is designed to inject liquidity into the mortgage market, while also financing small and mid-sized properties that house small businesses. In turn, this can enable the employment of millions of Americans.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether the mortgage market will face a sustained downturn akin to the financial crisis, or if the temporary decline will soon subside.

end

Michael Every.. Yesterday and this morning’s events.

Trump Has To Spend $1.8 Trillion In The Next Three Months

Authored by Michael Every of Rabobank

Light at the end of the tunnel

Yesterday had its fair share of positive developments. Foremost was news that the Oxford Covid-19 vaccine appears to show good potential in human trials. Yes, it might need two doses to work, which markets didn’t like so much, but frankly it was always going to be a slow, laborious, and hugely expensive challenge to develop, and then physically produce, and then practically roll out an effective vaccine to most of mankind. “Here’s a genie in a magic lamp – but you have to rub it twice to release it.” “Oh, that’s rather inefficient! Haven’t you got another one?” Markets showing their innate ‘Oscar Wilde’ price vs. value genius once again. We also had an update on last week’s news from Israel that progress also continues to be made on a Covid treatment using common hyperlipidaemia drugs, which scientists claim could potentially downgrade the virus from a killer to just a cold. In short, a good day for science. Perhaps it’s not such a bad thing after all.

Europe found a way out of its multi-day mega-summit, which must have come as a physical relief to the leaders involved and the journalists having to sit there and cover it. The outcome is EUR390bn in virus recovery grants and USD360bn of low-interest loans. Italy in particular is to get EUR82bn in grants and EUR127bn in loans. Critics will continue to point out that this isn’t enough to really jump-start a recovery given the damage done – but it’s certainly not the cold hard nothing that was on the cards at one point.

In the UK, Chancellor Rishi (Rich) Sunak continues to defy traditional Conservative stereotypes, and has announced almost 900,000 public sector workers are due to get a pay rise of up to 3.1%. That doesn’t mean that the private sector won’t look at an atomised workforce where unemployment is surging and try to slash salaries or benefits, but at least the state won’t be the first into such a damaging downwards spiral.

Stocks continue to act as if we have already beaten Covid-19 – and every potential health-risk known to man. The Nasdaq in particular was up 3% on the day. Bonds still don’t buy that enthusiasm, acting in either a more hypochondriac (or realist) manner: US 10-year yields were at 0.61% at time of writing. The USD is still relatively on its heels, with bellwethers like AUD managing to hold over the psychological 0.70 level for example, and EUR at 1.1440.

However, lights at the end of the tunnel can be either an exit or trains coming towards us; and some might want to consider that in some key cases it could still prove to be either.

First, the White House and Congressional leaders are to sit down today and start to consider what stimulus comes next. Democrats are pushing for a USD3 trillion package while the White House only wants USD1 trillion, and focused on a payroll tax cut rather than an extension to the USD600 weekly extension to unemployment benefits. The clock is ticking given we are days away from income supplements drying up at a time when millions are jobless and one in three Americans is not making a full rent or mortgage payment. Political speed is of the essence.

The US Treasury is of course sitting on a cash balance of USD1.8 trillion at this point. I don’t recall any taxes being paid to raise that sum – almost as if MMT were already a thing. (On which note, please see this report.) One wonders when this massive fiscal firepower is going to be unleashed; because surely no president wants to leave USD1.8 trillion to a successor?

While it makes sense to argue it’s better to incentivise working (a payroll tax cut) than not working (unemployment benefits) this presumes everyone is able to go back to work. If many can’t physically get back to work and also have their benefits cut, it will risk an express train hitting the US economy.

So back to the USD. Bloomberg breathlessly reports today about the USD200bn IPO of a certain large Chinese financial company in Hong Kong and Shanghai. What a bright light that is, apparently. So much so it is flagged in one editorial as signalling the start of China’s de-dollarization. Really? The fact we are talking about a USD200bn IPO when it won’t actually be in dollars, or in the US, doesn’t say anything about which currency still rules? Or that one of the popular services under the umbrella of this firm is selling FX to buy USD at attractive rates and commission free.

Meanwhile, there are many potential trains ahead of us: there’s US-China relations, where Secretary of State Pompeo is due to make another speech on Thursday that might sour relations even further. Yet we also have the following headlines on Bloomberg opinion:

  • UK Living Standards Post Biggest Drop Since 1970s Oil Crisis (Whisper it, dear readers, but not everyone has had a good crisis. **The stock market is not the real world!** )
  • China Is Getting Closer to Its Lehman Moment (Oh, what party poopers they are to write this given that Chinese financial IPO: and why remind people the PBOC is forcing already struggling banks to give up most of their profits ‘for the team’?)
  • We’re One Gaffe Away From Another Taper Tantrum (So we can’t stop if we wanted to?)
  • Financial Repression Will Be a Liberator for Gold (Which says what about returns on other assets? And FX volatility?)

So to summarize: we are still deep in crisis despite huge fiscal stimulus in the UK; we heading for a crisis if we keep going the way we are in China; if we take a step back anywhere we are heading for another kind of crisis; and if we go all-in then we face a different kind of structural crisis.Not that any of that will stop current financial exuberance.

“Let there be light.”

 end
Another goofy plan from Biden:  $775 billion for universal child and elderly care financed through gouging  real estate investors
(zerohedge)

Biden Unveils $775 Billion Plan For Universal Child & Elder Care

Days after unveiling his ‘Green New Deal’ inspired infrastructure plan that will move the US to “100% green energy” by 2035 (much to the dismay of the energy industry, and taxpayers, who would probably rather see that money go to building bridges, airports and highways), the former Vice President is back with another expansionist, big-government plan to implement universal childcare across the US.

Biden’s plan calls for shelling out $775 billion to boost child care and care for the elderly. We imagine Biden’s campaign advisors feel that such a promise might resonate with suburban parents anxious about school closures and the struggle to find child care while they work.

The third plank of the Democratic nominee’s economic plan, it calls for universal preschool for three- and four-year-olds and would also eliminates the waiting list for home and community services under Medicaid while offering low-income and middle-class families a tax credit of as much as $8,000 to help pay for child care. If all that weren’t enough, the law increases pay for caregivers and educators.

Amusingly, Biden’s “caring economy” plan, if enacted, would be financed by new taxes on the sales of commercial real estate, which would deal another blow to the already hard-hit CMBS market.

Here’s more from BBG:

Joe Biden on Tuesday unveiled a $775 billion plan to bolster child care and care for the elderly that would be financed by taxes on real estate investors with incomes of more than $400,000 as well increased tax compliance by high-income earners.

The Biden campaign did not fully explain how the plan for a “caring economy” would be financed, but officials highlighted some tax breaks they would seek to eliminate to raise revenue.

In particular, a senior campaign official said a Biden administration would take aim at so-called like-kind exchanges, which allow investors to defer paying taxes on the sale of commercial real estate if the capital gains are reinvested in another property. The official also said they would prevent investors from using real estate losses to lower their income tax bills.

Biden is scheduled to deliver a speech on the policies Tuesday afternoon in New Castle, Delaware.

Is Biden’s latest shuffle leftward merely a pose, or does the former VP mean what he says about this ‘head start on steroids’ plan? Well, for what it’s worth, Biden shared details of the plan during a fundraiser hosted by a senior exec at Blackstone.

On Monday, Biden teased his “caring economy” plan at a fundraiser hosted by Blackstone Group President Jonathan Gray, telling donors he wanted to make it easier for elderly Medicaid recipients to receive care at home.

Across the universe of American finance, what more suitable industry exists than private equity to represent Biden’s “caring economy” ethic?

Another element of Biden’s economic plan (which he obviously cribbed from President Trump’s “America First” agenda) is a push for more union jobs.

Biden also defended his broader economic agenda, which includes a push for more union jobs, telling the high-dollar donors: “I hope I don’t offend any of you by that but I really think it is totally consistent with a market economy and moving forward.”

Whether this platform seems genuine to you, or just another example of a politician saying whatever he believes will help him get elected, this isn’t the first time we’ve pointed out that Biden’s agenda seems like a hodge-podge of rhetoric designed to appeal to two hopelessly disparate voting blocs: Midwestern swing voters and AOC-loving progressives.

To us, that sounds like a recipe for alienating both.

end
Looks like we will have football this season as the NFL players union agrees to safety protocols
(zero hedge)

NFL Players Union Agrees To Safety Protocols, Clearing Major Hurdle To 2020-2021 Season

In a move that clears one more hurdle to what’s expected to be a full NFL season for 2020-2021, the NFL players union has agreed to a new arrangement whereby players will be tested daily for coronavirus infections during the first two weeks of training camp. The players’ union had raised concerns about practices putting players at risk with the first set to begin in a week.

The decision comes after dozens of MLB and NBA players have tested positive, along with a smattering of soccer players and other athletes, as the coronavirus briefly shut down athletics around the world. Although the 2020 Olympics has been postponed, European soccer leagues have mostly re-started play.

The NFL preseason is set to begin mostly on time, with practices starting in late July, with the first games being held more than a month later.

The NFL Players Association told the press that 72 players have tested positive for the virus as of July 10. The spread across the population is risk enough to make players anxious about sharing locker rooms and other facilities, along with the physical contact that’s simply an essential part of the sport.

Here’s more from ESPN:

According to a memo obtained by ESPN, the NFL and the NFL Players Association will require daily COVID-19 testing for the first two weeks of training camp. After two weeks, if the positive test rate is below 5%, the league would scale back to testing every other day. If the positive test rate is not below 5%, they will continue with daily testing until such time as it falls below that number. If the positivity rate hits 5% or higher at any point, they go back to daily testing until it comes down again.

“This is ongoing work,” Dr. Allen Sills, the league’s chief medical officer, said. “There’s no finish line with health and safety, and I think these protocol are living, breathing documents, which means they will change as we get new information. They will undoubtedly be changing over time, which is what we usually see in medicine.”

Upon arriving at the team facility for the first time, players and team employees will be required to test negative twice before being allowed in. Basically, you show up on Day One, take a test, go home. You then must wait 72 hours before taking a second test. If both are negative, you can go into the building and get to work on Day 5.

“We recognize that, as players and coaches and staff come in, they’re going to be coming in from all over the country and in some cases the world,” Sills said. “So we want to take a slow approach here.”

The memo states that the testing rules – and the 5% threshold – will apply to all Tier 1 and Tier 2 employees for each team in the league. A June 7 memo sent to the teams by the league defined Tier 1 employees as all players and necessary personnel who must have direct access to players. It defined Tier 2 as “other essential personnel who may need to be in close proximity to players and other Tier 1 individuals and who may need to access restricted areas.”

Sills also said the league’s expectation is that test results will come back within 24 hours. The NFL has contracted with BioReference Laboratories to handle its tests and has said multiple times over the past several months that it wants to remain responsible about not taking up too large a share of the available tests in any market.

In other news, the NFL has reportedly assented to a Players’ Union demand that there be no pre-season games, in keeping with the notion that the season be as stripped-down as possible to minimize risk to players and team staff.

The proposal included an offer for a longer training and acclimation period, ESPN reported.

Some players have taken to Twitter to voice their concerns about the league’s decision to start training camps before an agreement on safety protocols have been reached. But the agreement should quiet those concerns.

END

Pompeo furious at China as two Chinese nationals have been charged with a massive hacking job on COVID 19 research

(zerohedge)

 

As Pompeo Rips “Disgraceful” China, DOJ Reveals “Massive” State Hack Of COVID-19 Research

The US and UK are increasingly lockstep in responding to China, including presenting a united front on the Huawei issue, and this was on full display during Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit and statement Tuesday morning from Downing Street alongside Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab.

He lashed out at China’s behavior related to Hong Kong, it’s handling of coronavirus, as well as seeking to hack Western research on COVID-19 as “disgraceful”. His explosive comments even targeted President Xi Jinping directly:

“On behalf of the American people I want to extend my condolences to the British people for your losses from this preventable pandemic.

This CPC exploitation of this disaster to further its own interests has been disgraceful and rather than helping the world, General Secretary Xi has shown the world the party’s true face.”

As we’ve noted before, we’re now witnessing full court press diplomatic war by English speaking nations (the so-called intelligence “five eyes”) against Beijing. Pompeo told the British people “well done” for the latest punitive measures targeting China.

“We began with the challenge presented by the Chinese communist party in the COVID-19 virus which originated in Wuhan, China,” Pompeo emphasized, while calling on all  democratic countries to unite against the “threat” of Chinese aggression.

He demanded that China behave “consistent with international order”. Interestingly, it’s much the same rhetoric used against Russia a mere months ago.

The statement followed “candid” talks with PM Boris Johnson focused on China.

 

Pompeo landing in London, via Reuters.

And on the same morning of Pompeo’s Downing Street presser, this headline has emerged:

US prosecutors accuse two Chinese hackers of stealing trade secrets and targeting firms working on COVID-19 vaccine.

Last week it was the Russians, and now it’s the Chinese. In this case, the pair of Chinese nationals, who it appears will not be brought to justice given they reside in China, are charged with stealing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of trade secrets and intellectual property.

It seems the DOJ announcement was timed precisely to come amid Pompeo’s UK visit where he continues talking tough on China. The details, according to ABC News, are as follows:

The Justice Department has announced an 11-count indictment charging two alleged Chinese hackers accused of carrying out a massive global cyber intrusion campaign to steal trade secrets, including most recently targeting companies conducting research for a COVID-19 vaccine.

Li Xiaoyu and Dong Jiazhi, both Chinese nationals currently living in China, are alleged in the indictment to be active leaders of a hacking campaign that has been ongoing for more than 10 years and has targeted hundreds of companies in more than 11 countries, including the U.S.

“The hackers stole terabytes of data which comprised a sophisticated and prolific threat to U.S. networks,” the DOJ’s press release said. “More recently, the defendants probed for vulnerabilities in computer networks of companies developing COVID-19 vaccines, testing technology, and treatments.”

Here is the full grand jury indictment:

China has lately warned the UK not to “dance to the tune of the Americans”. But this dictum and appeal appears too late.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

St Louis couple charged with a felony after using firearms to ward off trespassers /armed protesters. However they will be immediately pardoned by the Governor.
(zerohedge)

St. Louis Couple Charged With Felony After Using Firearms To Ward Off Trespassing Protesters

A wealthy St. Louis couple who made headlines last month for displaying firearms in front of their home as a group of BLM activists marched towards the Mayor’s house will be charged with felony unlawful use of a weapon, and face a misdemeanor charge of fourth-degree assault.

St. Louis’ top prosecutor, Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner, announced on Monday that she would be filing charges against personal injury attorneys Mark and Patricia McCloskey.

It is illegal to wave weapons in a threatening manner — that is unlawful in the city of St. Louis,” Gardner said in a statement, adding that she was recommending community service in lieu of up to four years in prison, according to Politico.

 

St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner

The McCloskey’s defenders – including several GOP leaders, President Trump and  others have urged Attorney General William Barr to investigate Gardner – while Missouri Gov. Mike Parson (R) said in a Friday radio interview that he would likely pardon the McCloskeys if they were charged and convicted.

Gardner responded by suggesting that Trump and other McCloskey defenders are attacking her to distract from “their failed approach to the COVID-19 pandemic” along with other issues, per Politico.

St. Louis, like many cities across the country, has seen demonstrations in the weeks since George Floyd’s death in Minneapolis, and the McCloskeys’ home was initially incidental to the demonstration on June 28Several hundred people were marching to the home of Democratic Mayor Lyda Krewson, a few blocks from the McCloskeys’ home. Krewson had angered activists by reading on Facebook Live the names and addresses of some who had called for defunding police.

The McCloskeys live on a private street called Portland Place. A police report said the couple heard a loud commotion and saw a large group of people break an iron gate marked with “No Trespassing” and “Private Street” signs. A protest leader, the Rev. Darryl Gray, said the gate was open and that protesters didn’t damage it. –Politico

The McCloskeys have repeatedly said they were defending themselves as tensions have flared during destructive and violent BLM riots across the country.

Less than two weeks ago, St. Louis authorities raided the McCloskey residence, confiscating the AR-15 used by Mark McCloskey. The couple said their attorney was in possession of the pistol Patricia McCloskey brandished during the confrontation.

END
More from the swamp:
(Widburg/AmericanThinker.com

What Did Comey Know And When Did He Know It?

Authored by Andrea Widburg via AmericanThinker.com,

On March 20, 2017, then-FBI Director James Comey told Congress that the FBI was formally investigating whether there were contacts between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin. We later learned that the alleged basis for this investigation was the Steele Dossier. Since then, we’ve also learned that the information in the Steele Dossier was fake.

The big question now is when did the FBI know that the whole investigation, which severely handicapped Trump’s first term, was baloney?

The answer, based upon newly released documents from the Senate Judiciary Committee, is that by mid-February 2017 Comey knew or should have known that the Steele Dossier was a hoax perpetrated by the Hillary campaign.

To go back a step, we know from Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s December 2019 report that the FBI relied upon the Steele Dossier both to spy on Carter Page and to investigate the  Trump campaign. The same report establishes that the FBI’s investigation revealed that Steele’s information came from a source who, in turn, got his information from yet another source. By March 20, when Comey announced that the FBI was looking into the Trump campaign, FBI agents on the ground had already stated that the primary source had no credibility.

What the Horowitz Report did not address was when Comey personally learned about the credibility problem. Comey refused to cooperate with the IG investigation, so Horowitz glossed over Comey’s knowledge or lack thereof. One of the problems (see pp. 370-371 of the report) was that the FBI agents who interviewed the sub-source wrote documents falsely implying that he was reliable, even as their notes said otherwise.

That confusion held Horowitz back from imputing knowledge to Comey. The two newly declassified documents, however, practically cry out that, when Comey announced the Trump investigation, he knew or should have known that it had no basis.

The first document, which is heavily redacted, establishes that the primary source was not (as many speculated) a highly placed Russian. Contacts with the Kremlin would have militated in favor of believing him or her. But when the FBI identified Steele’s primary source, they found that he was not a Russian official, nor was he even based in Russia.  That should have been a huge red flag that there was a problem.

The second document poses an even bigger problem for Comey. On February 14, 2017, the New York Times published an article entitled, “Trump Campaign Aides Had Repeated Contact With Russian Intelligence.” Peter Strzok, who headed the Trump investigation (aka Operation Crossfire Hurricane), read the article and made notes establishing that the FBI had no basis for investigating Trump. Sharyl Attkisson quoted the notes:

Claim in NYT article: “Phone records and intercepted calls show that members of Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign and other Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election, according to four current and former American officials.”

Note by Strzok: “This statement is misleading and inaccurate as written. We have not seen evidence of any individuals in contact with Russians (both Governmental and non-Governmental)” and “There is no known intel affiliation, and little if any [government of Russia] affiliation[.] FBI investigation has shown past contact between [Trump campaign volunteer Carter] Page and the SVR [Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation], but not during his association with the Trump campaign.”

[snip]

Claim in NYT article: “Officials would not disclose many details, including what was discussed on the calls, and how many of Trump’s advisers were talking to the Russians.”

Note by Strzok: “Again, we are unaware of ANY Trump advisers engaging in conversations with Russian intel officials” and “Our coverage has not revealed contact between Russian intelligence officers and the Trump team.”

[snip]

Claim by NYT: “Senior FBI officials believe … Christopher Steele … has a credible track record.”

Note by Strzok: “Recent interviews and investigation, however, reveal Steele may not be in a position to judge the reliability of subsource network.”

The FBI’s decision to investigate a duly elected president was arguably the most consequential investigation the FBI has ever undertaken. The man leading the investigation, who was only two levels below Director Comey, wrote notes that strongly imply that, five weeks before Comey announced the investigation (and after the FBI had engaged in months of intensive work), the FBI had nothing.

These documents make it more likely than not that Comey knew that the investigation was baseless. If he did know, and he nevertheless continued the investigation and publicly announced it, thereby deliberately and severely damaging a duly elected president, what he did was nothing less than sedition.

The fact that Comey still walks free is a troubling indication that it’s business as usual in the Swamp. When swamp rats who support Democrats break the law, they go free.

end

The left are attacking Tucker Carlson and his family

(zerohedge)

Tucker Carlson Livid; Dismantles The New York Times Over Alleged Plan To Dox Him

In November of 2018, an organized Antifa chapter known as “Smash Racism DC” showed up at the home of Fox News host Tucker Carlson – ringing his doorbell as their violent co-founder, Michael Isaacson – who loves dead cops and called for VP Mike Pence’s assassination – led them in chants such as “Tucker Carlson, we will fight! / We know where you sleep at night!

Later that evening, the group posted “Every night you spread fear into our homes — fear of the other, fear of us, and fear of them. Tonight you’re reminded that we have a voice. Tonight, we remind you that you are not safe either.

The angry mob would return weeks later to further hassle Carlson and his family.

The previous month, Carlson said that he’s “not a restaurant guy anymore” because of the constant harassment from the left – including a verbal altercation the Fox News host got into with a man who allegedly called his 19-year-old daughter a “whore”at at a Charlottesville, VA club.

Due to the ongoing threats, the Carlsons packed up and moved to a new house in order to keep his family out of harm’s way.

Except now, Carlson claims that the New York Times is about todox his family by revealing their new address in an upcoming article.

This was his response Monday night:

As a matter of journalism, there is no conceivable justification for a story like that. The paper is not alleging we’ve done anything wrong, and we haven’t. We pay our taxes. We like our neighbors. We’ve never had a dispute with anyone. So why is The New York Times doing a story on the location of my family’s house? Well, you know why. To hurt us, to injure my wife and kids so that I will shut up and stop disagreeing with them,” Carlson said, adding “Editors there know exactly what will happen to my family when it does run. I called them today, and I told them. But they didn’t care. They hate my politics. They want this show off the air. If one of my children gets hurt because of a story they wrote, they won’t consider it collateral damage. They know it’s the whole point of the exercise: To inflict pain on our family, to terrorize us, to control, we say. That’s the kind of people they are.”

Watch:

The Times has denied the allegation, saying in a Monday night statement: “While we do not confirm what may or may publish in future editions, The Times has not and does not plan to expose any residence of Tucker Carlson’s, which Carlson was aware of before tonight’s broadcast.”

Smash DC’s Isaacson, meanwhile, has an axe to grind after Carlsondemolished him on live television in September, 2017:

In addition to airing his violent fantasies across the internet, a January, 2017 undercover video from Project Veritas captured the now-firedIsaacson encouraging his supporters to “throat punch” conservatives.

“Generally speaking, Nazis will only actually attack people if they strongly outnumber them because Nazis are essentially cowards. So if it’s three of them and a homeless guy, they’re going to beat him up. If it’s one of them and like six other people, they’re gonna run the f*ck away,” he told the Veritas journalist.

And now, if the New York Times does indeed dox Carlson – an unemployed Antifa leader with violent fantasies will know right where to send his angry mob.

end

This should bring the Democrats to fight Trump in court on this: excluding illegal immigrants from the Census

(zerohedge)

Trump Signs Order Excluding Illegal Immigrants From Census

President Trump on Tuesday signed an order which will bar immigrants living in the United States illegally from being included in the 2020 census for purposes of apportioning members of Congress to states.

According to the memo, it will be the “policy of the United States to exclude from the apportionment base aliens who are not in a lawful immigration status under the Immigration and Nationality Act.

It directs Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to provide Trump with data on the number of undocumented residents in order to exclude them from population totals which determine how many seats each state receives in Congress, according to NBC News.

“We will collect all of the information we need to conduct an accurate census and to make responsible decisions about public policy, voting rights, and representation in Congress,” said Trump in a Tuesday statement.

The administration argues that the U.S. Constitution does not specifically define which “persons” must be included in the apportionment base, noting that documented immigrants who are in the country temporarily and certain foreign diplomatic personnel are “persons” who have been excluded from the apportionment base in past censuses.

It was not immediately clear how undocumented immigrants would be identified in order to omit them from the census count.The census questionnaire, which was distributed in March, did not require respondents to indicate whether they or others in their household are citizens. –NBC News

Last year the Trump administration attempted to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census for the first time in six-decades, a bid which was struck down by the Supreme Court, which prevented the Department of Commerce from including the question thanks to Chief Justice John Roberts – a Bush II appointee, joining the four-member liberal wing of the court.

The ACLU has vowed to take the Trump administration to court over the new census memo.

“he Constitution requires that everyone in the U.S. be counted in the census. President Trump can’t pick and choose,” said ACLU Voting Rights Project director Dale Ho, who knocked the Trump administration.

“He tried to add a citizenship question to the census and lost in the Supreme Court. His latest attempt to weaponize the census for an attack on immigrant communities will be found unconstitutional. We’ll see him in court, and win, again,” said Ho.

According to NBC News, the Constitution requires that the census count “persons” living in the United States, and does not mention citizenship status. While lower courts have ruled that illegal immigrants should be counted, the Supreme Court has yet to weigh in.

“The resident population counts include all people (citizens and non-citizens) who are living in the United States at the time of the census,” reads the Census Bureau’s website. “People are counted at their usual residence, which is the place where they live and sleep most of the time.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine shows promise in first human trial

Vaccine did not prompt any serious side effects and elicited antibody and T-cell immune responses, according to trial results     https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine-first-human-trial

Coronavirus: Oxford vaccine triggers immune response – Trials involving 1,077 people showed the injection led to them making antibodies and T-cells that can fight coronavirus. The findings are hugely promising, but it is still too soon to know if this is enough to offer protection and larger trials are under way… The UK has already ordered 100 million doses of the vaccine…https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53469839

EU Edges toward Massive Stimulus Package with New Proposal – a 750 billion-euro (US$858 billion) recovery fund… would include 390 billion euros of grants, down from an initial 500 billion euros, and 360 billion euros of low-interest loans…

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/eu-edges-toward-massive-stimulus-package-with-new-proposal-1.1468062

EU’s ‘frugal’ nations offered rebates (discounts applied to budget contributionto break virus recovery deadlock   https://www.ft.com/content/dc517389-7918-49ba-a928-79d006612523

WaPo: GOP relief bill likely to include payroll tax cut, tie school funds to reopenings

Mnuchin said Monday that the White House wants the bill to amount to roughly $1 trillion in new programs, though they are expected to use budget gimmicks to make the initial package slightly larger. Still, Democrats were looking for… a $3 trillion package they passed in May that would extend unemployment benefits, include new stimulus checks, and help cities and states, among other things…  https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/07/20/coronavirus-stimulus-bill-july

How COVID-19 fatality reports are distorting the data on daily death rates

Health departments publish two fatality figures; the media pick the more frightening one.

     The distinction is a critical one: The state’s “new deaths” every day do not actually reflect the number of coronavirus fatalities Arizona has logged in the past 24 hours, but rather the number of COVID-19 deaths it has identified from both new and older death certificates

    A similar problem was seen in Florida this week, when the state health department on Thursday announced 156 deaths in one 24-hour period. That number was touted as a frightening new record by media outlets such as CNN, the Miami Herald, NBC, the Orlando Sentinel, and numerous others.  Yet as of Saturday afternoon, the actual number of deaths confirmed for that 24-hour period, per the state’s dashboard, was just 58—roughly one-third the “record” that the state health department touted on its website…  https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/holdhow-covid-19-fatality-reports-are-distorting-data

@adamhousley: IMPORTANT…this comes from a friend on the frontline working on a Vaccine.  “An important brand new finding with Significant ramifications on our collective view of Covid: new study in prestigious journal PNAS (July 7th) shows something (generally) unexpected.  That prior vaccination against Tuberculosis (bacteria, unrelated to Covid virus) OFFERS PARTIAL PROTECTION against Covid. It was a methodical statistical evaluation including countries with high and low Tb vaccination rates. Could explain why some countries have lower rates (eg Africa and Brazil have high TB vaccination rates and lower Covid)…

Senator Rand Paul @RandPaul: Paging Dr. Fauci! According to JHU, NY’s per capita death rate is more than 2X greater than Italy Spain & Britain & more than 8X worse than Florida & 10X worse than Texas. For you to say NY got it done correctly disregards the facts & calls your judgement into question.

GOP Sen. Josh Hawley @HawleyMO: American corporations like @NBA and @Nike and others should not be profiting off forced, slave labor. I am introducing legislation to require multinationals to certify that they don’t use slave labor – or face penalties https://t.co/sIPi06ayd4

GOP Sen. Cruz & Dallas Maverick’s owner Mark Cuban got into a Twitter fight.  Cruz ended it with this:

@tedcruz: Speaking of balls, tell us what you think about China. I’ll wait. Still no answer from @mcuban.  Let’s try simpler. Mark, tough guy, can you say “Free Hong Kong”?  Can your players put that on their jerseys?  Can you condemn the CCP’s concentration camps w/ 1 million Uyghurs?  Can you say ANYTHING other than “Chairman Mao is beautiful & wise”?

https://www.tmz.com/2020/07/20/mark-cuban-ted-cruz-nba-china-national-anthem-black-lives-matter-balls/

The Primary Sub-Source for Steele Dossier Identified – Igor Danchenko – a Soros Connected Associate of Lying Schiff Star Witness Fiona Hill – This is the one individual those looking into the Trump – Russia collusion fraud were after – the PSS – the individual who was behind the material amount of Steele dossier lies…The connection to Fiona Hill is huge.  This shows that Adam Schiff’s disgusting unconstitutional impeachment proceeding based on no crimes on the part of President Trump had as star witness, Fiona Hill, who is a close associate of the individual behind the grotesque and unverified Steele dossier, which was the heart of the Trump Russia dossier…

https://thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/breaking-exclusive-primary-sub-source-steele-dossier-identified-igor-danchenko-soros-connected-associate-lying-schiff-star-witness-fiona-hill/

For years, the MSM, Dem leadership and others assert that Steele’s primary sub-source (PSS) was a Putin insider.  Allegedly, he’s just some jabroni from the Brookings Institute.

@HansMahncke: Judge Boasberg, if you’re listening, the FBI swore an affidavit that the PSS was “Russian-based”. In fact, we now know that the PSS lived a few miles down the road from your courthouse, literally.

FBI wanted to use White House briefings to spy on Trump, aides

Donald Trump was president for only 24 hours when then-FBI supervisor Peter Strzok sent an angry missive to his boss. A colleague had given the new White House a counterintelligence briefing and hadn’t consulted on how to use the meeting to further the Russia collusion investigation.

    “I heard from [redacted] about the WH CI briefing routed from [redacted],” Strzok wrote on Jan. 21, 2017, a day into the new Trump presidency after learning fellow agent Jennifer Boone had given the White House a briefing without his knowledge.

    “I am angry that Jen did not at least cc: me, as my branch has pending investigative matters there,” Strzok added in his email to Assistant Director for Counterintelligence William Priestap. “This brief may play into our investigative strategy, and I would like the ability to have visibility and provide thoughts/counsel to you in advance of the briefing…

    “It’s unbelievable this kind of stuff was going on,” said Fred Fleitz, a longtime intelligence analyst who served as chief of staff to Trump’s third national security adviser John Bolton. “How is the president to do his job with this going on?… “These documents suggest that President Trump was targeted by the Comey FBI as soon as he stepped foot in the Oval Office,” Fitton said.

https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/broken-trust-fbi-wanted-use-white-house-briefings-spy

@LizRNC: “We have a whole group of lawyers who are going out to every voter registration physician in the states…to allow for voting in place…”  Joe Biden becomes totally incoherent during a softball interview with MSNBC   https://twitter.com/LizRNC/status/1285354333941506049

 

@bennyjohnson: In a Letter to President Trump the Chicago Fraternal Order of Police Head says Mayor Lori Lightfoot is a “complete failure” and “either unwilling or unable to maintain law and order”.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1285354969454063617

 

Trump vows to send feds into cities facing violence, as DHS reportedly drafts Chicago deployment plan – New York and Chicago and Philadelphia and Detroit and Baltimore … we’re not going to let this happen in our country,” Trump said in the Oval Office. “We will have more federal law enforcement. That I can tell you.”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-vows-to-send-federal-agents-dhs-chicago

 

Broward County [FL] Orders: Follow Mask Rules in YOUR OWN HOME

https://nationalfile.com/broward-county-orders-follow-mask-rules-in-your-own-home/

Well that is all for today

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