AUGUST 17//WARREN BUFFET SELLS USA (SELLS MOST OF HIS BANK STOCKS) AND BUYS BARRICK GOLD//GOLD UP $46.30 TO $1942.10//SILVER UP $1.26 TO $27.53// ANOTHER GOOD JUMP IN GOLD DELIVERIES AT THE COMEX: UP TO 151.347 TONNES//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES: SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY//USA VS CHINA: TRUMP ATTACKS HUAWEI MORE////TURKEY HIT BY BANK RUNS AS LIRA COLLAPSES//TURKISH ECONOMY COLLAPSES//POOR USA DATA//SWAMP STORIES//

GOLD:$1,988.40  UP $46.30  The quote is London spot price (cash market)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$27.53 UP $1.26   London spot price ( cash market)

 

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Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1985.20  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $27.47//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

AUGUST GOLD:   $1980.20  CLOSE  1::30 PM  SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE AUG  (BACKWARD  $8.10//)

OCT GOLD:  $1988.500  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /:   : $0.10//SLIGHT CONTANGO// WELL BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO/

 

 

DEC. GOLD  $19997.10   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $8.70   ($ BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $27.68…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :  15 CENT  PER OZ  ( CONTANGO/ SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $27.85  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       : 32  CENTS PER OZ  ( 20 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

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COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today:  19/95

issued:  86

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,937.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/14/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 08/18/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 9
104 C MIZUHO 4
135 H RAND 1
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4 36
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 9
661 C JP MORGAN 86 13
661 H JP MORGAN 6
690 C ABN AMRO 5
709 C BARCLAYS 5
800 C MAREX SPEC 1
880 H CITIGROUP 7
905 C ADM 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 95 95
MONTH TO DATE: 48,130

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 95 NOTICE(S) FOR 9500 OZ  (0.2954 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  48,130 NOTICES FOR 4,813,000 OZ  (149.700 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR AUGUST

 

 

2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1272 for 6.360 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $11,882  DOWN 29

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $12,313 UP 402

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $46.30 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/// //

SURPRISINGLY????

A STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL  OF 3.80 TONNES INTO THE GLD///

 

 

 

 

GLD: 1,248.29 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP $1.27 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 574.053  MILLION OZ./

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 4545 CONTRACTS FROM 197,623 DOWN TO 193,078, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG $1.31 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO  CONSIDERABLE  BANKER SHORT COVERING COUPLED AGAINST A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, SOME LONG LIQUIDATION, WITH  A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ. STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR AUGUST.  WE HAD A STRONG NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3095 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   SEP 1300 DEC:  150 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1450 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1450 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1450 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.25 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE $1.31 LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.430 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST

 

FRIDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL $1.31 ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME WEAK SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS BUT THEY ALSO ENGAGED IN STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING. THUS: THE GOOD SIZED LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING  FOR AUGUST,  MASSIVE BANKER SHORT COVERING  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A GOOD NET LOSS OF 3095 CONTRACTS OR 15.45 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..AND THUS THE REASON FOR OUR MASSIVE RAID THIS MORNING!!

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

AUGUST

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

12,153 CONTRACTS (FOR 12 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 12,153 CONTRACTS) OR 60.765 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1012 CONTRACTS OR 5.063 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST: 60.765 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.68% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,331.06 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EXP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EXP                         60.765  MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS INCREASING)

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4545, WITH OUR $1.31 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///FRIDAYTHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1450 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A STRONG SIZED 3095 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $1.31 FALL IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1450 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED DECREASE OF 4545 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A $1.31 FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $26.35 // FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.9925 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 141% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW AUGUST  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 2 NOTICE(S) FOR 10,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 86.470 million oz//AUGUST 6.445 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 6358 CONTRACTS TO 542,368 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE  LOSS OF COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE  OF $19.45 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// FRIDAY//WE  HAD A CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING, A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR AUGUST, ALONG WITH SOME LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $19.45. 

 

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 15    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  153

 

WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4736 CONTRACTS  (14.69 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.(SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING COUPLED WITH SOME LONG LIQUIDATION)

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1622 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 0 AND OCT: 0 DEC: 1622; JUNE: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1622.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 542,368. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4,736 CONTRACTS: 6,358 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1622 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 4736 CONTRACTS OR 14.73 TONNES. FRIDAY, WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF $19.45 IN GOLD TRADING.…..

AND DESPITE THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED LOSS IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 14.73 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT FELL $19.45). HOWEVER WE DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING SESSION//SPECULATOR LONG LIQUIDATION ON FRIDAY//

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1622) ACCOMPANYING THE CONSIDERABLE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (6358 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4736 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )A SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING, 2.)A STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT AUGUST MONTH,  3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) CONSIDERABLE COMEX OI LOSS AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//FRIDAY//$19.45.

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 27,022, CONTRACTS OR 2,702,200, oz OR 84.04 TONNES (12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2540 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

 

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 84.04 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 84.04/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.36% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,344.23  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 84.04 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 4545 CONTRACTS FROM 197,623 DOWN TO 193,078 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1)   SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OZ  STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR AUGUST,  AND  4) SOME  LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1450 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 SEPT: 1300 AND DEC. 150 AND  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1622 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS  OF 4545 CONTRACTS TO THE 1450 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG LOSS OF 3095 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 15.45 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $1.31 LOSS IN PRICE///

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 78.70 POINTS OR 2.34%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 164.33 POINTS OR 0.65%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 192.61 POINTS OR 0.83%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .69%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9402 /Oil UP TO 41.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and 44.65 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9402 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.93748 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 6358 CONTRACTS TO 542,368 MOVING FURTHER FROM  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS OF $19.45 IN GOLD PRICING /FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1622 CONTRACTS),.  THUS,  WE HAD 1) A STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX AS FEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE TOPIC OF DISCUSSION FOR THEM , PLUS 2)  SOME LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OZ  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4736 CONTRACTS WITH GOLD’S STRONG DECLINE  IN PRICE.  WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. 

 

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 15    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 153

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1622 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  AUG  0 , OCT: DEC 1622; JUNE// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1622 CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 4736 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1622 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 6358 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS ARE NOW LOATHE TO SUPPLY THE SHORT PAPER.  THEY CONTINUE TO ISSUE  SMALLER AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AS THE COST ON CARRYING SERIAL FORWARDS IN LONDON IS TOO GREAT FOR THEM. WE HAD A SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THE BANKERS HAVE BEEN CAUGHT TERRIBLY OFFSIDE ON THEIR SHORT POSITIONS..AND THE REASON FOR OUR HUGE RAIDS THIS WEEK COURTESY OF THE OFFICIAL SECTOR/BIS. TODAY WE WITNESSED A GOOD INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST…..  WE NO DOUBT LOST SOME SPECULATOR LONGS.

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $19.45).  AND, THEY WERE  SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED  14.73 TONNES (COMBINATION BANKER SHORT COVERING//SOME LONG LIQUIDATION).

 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 4736, CONTRACTS OR 473600 OZ OR 14.73 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  542,368 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 54.23 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1686 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1686/2200 OR 76,63% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 186,479 contracts// poor volume//

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  256,295 contracts//  volume: poor //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

AUGUST 17 /2020

AUGUST GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR AUGUST GOLD

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
64,712,325 oz
Brinks
HSBC
incl 1950 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

237,049.323

OZ

BRINKS
Malca

 

incl. 3000

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
95 notice(s)
 9500 OZ
(0.2954 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
528 contracts
(52800 oz)
1.642 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
48,130 notices
4,813,000 OZ
149.70 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 deposit into the customer account

i )into Brinks: 96,453.000 oz  3,000 kilobars

ii) into Malca:  140,596.323 oz

 

 

total deposit:  237,049.323   oz

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks:  62,694.45 oz  1950 kilobars

ii) Out of HSBC::  2017.875 oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals;  64,712.325  oz

 

 

 

We had 2  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 0 //

 

 

 

 

 

 

The front month of AUGUST registered a total of 623 CONTRACTS as we GAINED 10 contracts. We had 31 notices served on FRIDAY so we GAINED 41 contracts or an additional 4100 OZ will stand for delivery on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus. The boys are scrambling in search of badly needed physical metal.

 

 

 

 

 

After August we have the non active Sept contract month.. Here we saw another LOSS of 16 contracts to stand at 2435.  Oct LOST 768 contracts DOWN to 69,653

 

The big December contract LOST 5583 contracts  DOWN to 399,274 contracts…( and it is here where some of our speculators left the gold arena).

 

 

 

We had 95 notices filed today for  9500 oz

 

FOR THE AUGUST 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  86 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 95 contract(s) of which 13  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 9 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (48,130) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST (623 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (95 x 100 oz per contract) equals 4,865,800 OZ OR 151.347 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (48,130, x 100 oz + (623 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (95) x 100 oz which equals 4,865,800 oz standing OR 151.347 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE  amount for gold standing for a AUGUST delivery month (an active delivery month).

We gained 41 contracts or 4100 oz of gold as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards.

THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY IS A  BANK SHORT COVERING AS FINALLY FEAR BECAME THEIR CENTRAL FOCUS.  WE LOST SOME WEAK HANDS GOLD SPECULATORS ..

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

231,924.295 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  7.2138 TONNES

611,401.341 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               19.017 tonnes

total pledged gold:  1,029,962.895 oz                                     32.03 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 470.41 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 151.347 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  16,153,744.686 oz or 502.449 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020/SOME JULY 9; SOME JULY 22/July 03/august 3) which cannot be settled upon:  231,924.295 oz (or 7.2138 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED july 2 and july 21
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 611,401.341 oz added which cannot be settled:  19,017 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,029,962.896 oz or 32.03 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:  15,123582.0  (470,41 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,123,582.0 (470.41 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,981,615.173 oz (652.61 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   37,135,359.859 oz 1,155.06 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1028,72 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 

 

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

 

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

AUGUST 17/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

 

AUGUST SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDINGS

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,786,321.042 oz
Brinks
CNT

Loomis

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
495,687.280 oz Brinks

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,235.630 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
2
CONTRACT(S)
(10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts
 85,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1272 contracts

6,360,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

We had 1 deposit into the dealer:
i) Into Brinks:  495,687.280 oz

total dealer deposits: 495,687.280   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i)into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

 

 

ii) Into CNT: 600,235.630 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 165.53 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.15% of all official comex silver. (165.53 million/336.400 million

 

total customer deposits today: 600,235.630   oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

i) Out of CNT:  248,496.342 oz

ii) Out of Brinks: 10,332.300 oz

iii) Out of Loomis; 1,527,492.400 oz

 

 

total withdrawals;  1,786,321.042    oz

We had 0 adjustments

 

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 128,985 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  336.400 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

the front month of August registered an open interest of 19 contracts and thus we lost 3 contracts.  We had 3 notices filed on FRIDAY so we GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will  stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their efforts…. The bankers are now desperate in their search for badly needed silver whether it is on this side of the pond or the European side.

 

 

 

After August we have the  big September contract month and here we see a loss 5,367 contracts down to 85,642. November saw another gain of 7 contracts to stand at 263.

SEPT OI IS VERY HIGH AND WE WILL HAVE A DANDY AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

 

The big December contract month saw its OI rise by good 751 contracts up to 95.252

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2020. contract month is represented by 2 contract(s) FOR 10,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1272 x 5,000 oz = 6,360,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(19) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 1272 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST  (19)- number of notices served upon today (2) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.equals 6,445,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH.

We gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand for delivery as they refused to morph into London based forwards..

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 186m479 CONTRACTS // volume huge++++++++++++++++++/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 256,295.  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume huge.++++++++++++++++++++++++  

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 256,295 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 1.2814 billion  OZ 183% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 3.96% ((AUGUST 17/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -1.80% to NAV:   (AUGUST 17/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/3.96%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 20.87 TRADING 20.30///NEGATIVE 2,72

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD UP $46.30 TODAY:  SURPRISINGLY WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL  OF 3.8 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $19.45 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.63 TONNES.

AUGUST 13/WITH GOLD UP $23.15 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: SURPRISINGLY A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.63 TONNES

AUGUST 12/ WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.19 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.93 TONNES

AUGUST 11//WITH GOLD DOWN $92.40 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1262.12 TONNES.

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD UP $11.35  TODAY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1262.12 TONNES

AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.30 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96 TONNES

AUGUST 6/WITH GOLD UP $20.45 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96  TONNES//

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD UP $ 33.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 9.35 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.73 TONNES

AUGUST 4//WITH GOLD UP $31.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 6.48 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.38 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN THE GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241,96 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.90 TODAY/WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241.96 TONNES.

JULY 30/WITH GOLD DOWN  $10.00 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241.96 TONNES.

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP  $12.45 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1243.12 TONNES

JULY 28///WITH GOLD UP $13.25 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.84 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1234.65

JULY 27//WITH GOLD UP $35.30 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF XXX TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1228.81 TONNES

JULY 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.80 TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1228.81 TONNES

JULY 23/WITH GOLD UP $24.90 TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 7.26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1225.01 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1219.75 TONNES

JULY 21//WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1211.86 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 15//WITH GOLD UP $1.55 TODAY/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 3.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1203.97 TONNES

JULY 13//WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.46 TONNES

JULY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.82 TONNES

JULY 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OX 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1202.57 TONNES

JULY 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.75 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1199.36 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

AUGUST 17/ GLD INVENTORY 1248.29 tonnes*

LAST;  882 TRADING DAYS:   +308.79 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 782 TRADING DAYS://+487.32  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER  UP $1.27 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.31 TODAY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.984 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER UP $1.76  TODAY: WE HAVE TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.421  MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV AT 2 PM AND ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 6.984 MILLION OZ AT 5 20 PM/INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.037 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF XX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT XX MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 CENTS, WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.41 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.632 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 1.89 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.538 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.491  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 0.465 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.029 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 6/WITH SILVER UP $1.52 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ///

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER UP $1.03 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.45 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//SURPRISINGLY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 0.931 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

JULY 31/WITH SILVER UP 82 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SURPRISINGLY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.26 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.092 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 97 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 0.931 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.352 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 5.984 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.283 MILLION OZ//

JULY 28  WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 7.52 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.299 MILLION OZ//

JULY 27/WITH SILVER UP $2.67 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF XX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ//

JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ/

JULY 23/WITH SILVER UP $.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 9.594 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ///

JULY 22/WITH SILVER UP $1.54 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.218 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.185 MILLION OZ/

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP $1.38 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.368 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.967 MILLION OZ//

JULY 20/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:  A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.819 MILLION OZ ‘ENTERED” THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 526.599 MILLION OZ/

JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 1.583 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 522.780 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF  5.123 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.197 MILLION OZ..

JULY 15.WITH SILVER  UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.074 MILLION OZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 13//WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.677 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 4.844 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT  515.795 MILLION OZ

WHAT A FRAUD!!

JULY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 8.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.951 MILLION OZ/

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.118 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//VERY SURPRISING.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.753 MILLION OZ//

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ///

JULY 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.008 MILLION OZ

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.007 MILLION OZ/

 

AUGUST 17.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

574.053 MILLION OZ.

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

No “Gold Rush” Yet Despite the Positive Outlook and How People Are Buying Gold in Ireland (GoldCore on RTE)

Interview on RTE Radio 1’s Morning Ireland with Mark O’Byrne

From RTE:

Gold has hit a record high, surging over $2,000 dollars an ounce for the first time in history, as increasing numbers of nervous investors seek a safe place to put their money.

Many investors avoid gold because it does not pay dividends or earn interest but its price tends to rise in troubled times because it is seen as a safe haven asset. But like all investments, the value of gold can go down as well as up. The last time we saw a surge in gold prices was during the financial between 2008 and 2011.

The price of gold is rising across all currencies and is €1,700 an ounce, up 28% so far this year.

There is no gold rush in Ireland, according to Mark O’Byrne, Research Director of GoldCore, but demand is strong. “It is people who are more risk averse. They are seeing negative interest rates on deposits, currencies are being devalued, so that’s why people are beginning to diversify into gold. We are seeing near record demand again.”

Mr O’Byrne said in the short term gold looks overvalued because there has been quite a sharp move up in a short period of time so most people are expecting that correction.

“In the medium term, I think most analysts including Bank of America are talking about $3,000 dollars per ounce,” Mr O’Byrne said, “and Central Banks are buying gold because they are concerned about currency devaluations.”

Read and Listen To RTE Interview Here

 

 

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold firms on weaker dollar as focus turns to Fed (Reuters)

Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked (Bloomberg)

Japan’s record economic plunge wipes out Abe era gains (annualised -27.8%)

The U.S. dollar threat is becoming very real for China

Lockdowns – The New Fascism

Sweden Hits COVID-19 “Triple Whammy”: No Lockdowns, Low Deaths & Minimal Economic Damage

Turkey Hit By Bank Runs, Currency Panic As Locals Sell Their Cars And Houses To Buy Gold

Gold Consumers in India Hug Sidelines Ignoring Steep Price Drop

Gold is flying high but getting harder to mine

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

14-Aug-20 1948.30 1944.75 1491.42 1482.09 1653.33 1643.31
13-Aug-20 1931.00 1944.25 1476.06 1482.30 1632.47 1640.17
12-Aug-20 1931.70 1931.90 1479.10 1483.70 1642.14 1640.57
11-Aug-20 1996.60 1939.65 1524.40 1479.57 1694.51 1646.76
10-Aug-20 2030.30 2044.50 1552.98 1561.38 1725.35 1734.96
07-Aug-20 2061.50 2031.15 1574.37 1559.52 1743.82 1726.88
06-Aug-20 2049.15 2067.15 1555.30 1569.59 1728.87 1743.43
05-Aug-20 2034.45 2048.15 1553.30 1558.03 1718.09 1722.90
04-Aug-20 1972.25 1977.90 1508.77 1519.62 1671.09 1686.56
03-Aug-20 1972.95 1958.55 1509.50 1504.56 1678.39 1670.45

 

Access Latest Goldnomics Podcast (Part II) Here

Own gold and silver coins and bars in the safest vaults in Zurich, Singapore, London and Dublin with GoldCore.

Receive Our Award Winning Market Updates In Your Inbox – Sign Up Here

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

The big story of the year:  Berkshire makes a bet on gold as he sells all of the Goldman stock plus much of other banking equities

(Bloomberg)

Berkshire makes a bet on gold though Buffett famously mocked it

 Section: 

By Justina Vasquez
Bloomberg News
Friday, August 14, 2020

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. added Barrick Gold Corp. to its portfolio in the second quarter, sending shares of the world’s second-largest miner of the metal surging.

Berkshire took a new position in Barrick, buying 20.9 million shares, or 1.2% of the company’s outstanding stock, with a current market value of $565 million, according to a regulatory filing today. The filing shows moves made by Buffett or his two investing deputies, Todd Combs or Ted Weschler.

end

This is something that both Andrew Maguire and I have been pointing out to you:  that gold has been leased from the B. of E. to the GLD/  GLD pays lease payments but the gold never leaves the Bank of England.  If GLD defaults, the B of E is not out of any metal..it has only been leased.  What GLD is really trying to do is locate gold and replace the “leased” gold with that gold. Lately gold is not to be found and thus the reason for the huge amount of leased gold coming from the B. of E to the GLD

(Ronan Manly)

Ronan Manly: GLD keeps cadging central bank gold from the Bank of England

 Section: 

11:51p ET Friday, August 14, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly reports today that the biggest gold exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust — known by its stock symbol, GLD, and sponsored by the World Gold Council — now has claimed for a second quarter to be holding gold at the Bank of England, and more metal in the second quarter than in the first.

GLD’s transactions with the Bank of England, Manly writes, are disclosed by the fund’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Manly notes that it is highly unusual for the Bank of England to be acting as a subcustodian for GLD, whose gold ordinarily is supposed to be held by the fund’s primary custodian, bullion bank HSBC, in HSBC’s own vault

GLD’s rules, Manly notes, say gold held for the fund by a subcustodian is to be “promptly” transferred to the custodian’s vault. But even if such transfers were made with the gold held for the fund at the Bank of England in the first quarter, and the fund’s gold held at the Bank of England in the second quarter was different gold, it would seem that GLD is having trouble obtaining metal. It also would seem as if GLD is deceptively squaring its books for public appearances by borrowing central bank gold, which most gold vaulted at the Bank of England is.

 

Manly estimates that the gold GLD has claimed from the Bank of England’s vault so far this year amounts to between 70 and 150 tonnes.

Such sneaky maneuvering by GLD would fit with recent reports from metals trader Andrew Maguire that the London gold market is impossibly tight and from GATA consultant Robert Lambourne’s monthly reports about the increasing use of gold swaps and derivatives by the Bank for International Settlements, a gold broker for central banks and bullion banks.

Suspicion might be dispelled here if the GLD’s sponsor, the World Gold Council, would answer questions about what’s going on. But, not so surprisingly, Manly writes that the council won’t say a word. The council is not on the side of gold producers and investors but the side of central banks and their bullion bank agents.

Does GLD really own and hold the gold it claims to have? Why should any investor want to risk finding out, especially when the ETF’s own sponsor won’t answer for it?

Somebody should try to convey this information to billionaire Ray Dalio, boss of the Brigdewater Associates hedge fund in Connecticut, who purports to be a gold advocate but whose fund puts its gold money mainly in GLD. GATA has tried to contact Dalio many times in many ways in the last couple of years but he refuses to acknowledge us, even as it is likely that his gold money is actually being used for gold price suppression. But maybe that’s how Dalio really wants it.

Manly’s report is headlined “GLD Continues to Source Gold at the Bank of England, and at an Escalating Rate” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/gld-continues-to-source-go…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

How the Fed controlled the gold price: 1982 through to 1996

Jan Nieuwenhuijs (Koos Jansen)

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: How the Fed controlled the gold price from 1982-1995

 Section: 

9:14 ET Saturday, August 15, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Citing an academic study, Voima Gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs writes today that in the 1980s through at least 1995 the U.S. Federal Reserve considered the gold price to be a key indicator of expectations of consumer price inflation and so set interest rates to “stabilize” both inflation and the gold price itself.

From the 1980s through the early 2000s, Nieuwenhuijs adds, gold leasing by central banks also pushed gold’s price down.

His analysis is headlined “How the Fed Controlled the Price of Gold from 1982 Until 1995” and it’s posted at Voima Gold here:

https://www.voimagold.com/insight/how-the-fed-controlled-the-price-of-go…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Tom Luongo comments on the draining of gold from both London and New York.  He cites the two countries most likely asking for tonnes of gold is Russia and China and these two nations are intent on breaking the paper gold market

Tom Luongo/GATA

Tom Luongo: Is this the end of Comex paper gold?

 Section: 

11:23a ET Sunday, August 16, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Analyzing the recent changes and turmoil in gold, market watcher Tom Luongo concludes that some entities with deep pockets — almost certainly Russia and China — are collapsing the “paper gold” system with their delivery demands.

The usual central bank-instigated smashdowns in the monetary metals aren’t working anymore, Luongo notes, and nor is the old trick of the New York Commodities Exchange to increase margin requirements on metals futures contracts to scare longs away.

Luongo writes: “The bulls know that the old market structure is breaking down. They know that London is being drained of gold supply through persistent contango, creating arbitrage opportunities while investors are rightfully nervous about the future. Someone is standing for hundreds of tonnes of delivery in gold while pushing the price higher against the wishes of the exchange.”

 

But Luongo thinks the Comex will survive, with its gold contract evolving into a mechanism for betting on the price without any option for delivery of metal.

His analysis is headlined “Is This the End of Comex Paper Gold?” and it’s posted at his internet site here:

https://tomluongo.me/2020/08/14/market-friday-end-comex-paper-gold/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

gold mining is getting more difficult

(Wall Street Journal/MacDonald/GATA)

Gold is flying high but getting harder to mine

 Section: 

By Alistair MacDonald
The Wall Street Journal
Sunday, August 16, 2020

Gold miners are riding high as the metal trades at record prices, but digging it out of the ground is getting harder.

Gold is among the rarest metals in the earth’s crust and much of the easier-to-get ore has already been mined. What is left is harder to find and more expensive to extract, miners say

While that isn’t an immediate worry, with gold prices hitting $2,000 an ounce for the first time this month, miners face the longer-term prospect of higher costs and drilling in less hospitable places. A sharp selloff in gold this week also reminded companies that high prices can’t be taken for granted.

 

Gold prices are up around 28% this year. Miners have used the rally to pay down debt and increase dividends, rather than start new projects, with executives wary of repeating their costly overexpansion during the last big run-up in prices.

“We are definitely past peak gold,” said Mark Bristow, chief executive of Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s second-largest gold miner by market capitalization. He estimates that the new metal added to miners’ reserves since 2000 replaces only half of the gold they mined in that period.

Miners are spending less money on finding new gold, with the industry’s exploration budget at $4.44 billion last year, 63% lower than its record high in 2012, according to Australia-based Minex Consulting. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gold-is-flying-high-but-getting-harder-to-m…

END

Pressure mounts as Swiss refinery Valcambi is being taken to task over questionable gold origins form Dubai

(Swiss Broadcasting Corp

Switzerland/GATA)

Pressure mounts on Swiss refinery Valcambi over questionable gold origins

 Section: 

From the Swiss Broadcasting Corp.
Bern, Switzerland
Sunday, August 16, 2020

Industry associations are calling on Switzerland’s largest gold refinery to clarify the origins of its gold purchased from Dubai traders.

According to the German-language paper Sonntags Zeitung, a rift has emerged between the Swiss Association of Traders and Manufacturers of Precious Metals and the Ticino-based refinery Valcambi.

… 

The row concerns a report by the NGO Swissaid released in July, which alleges that Valcambi is sourcing gold from dubious sources in Dubai. The refinery’s purchases from the Kaloti Group are particularly concerning because of alleged links to gold from conflict regions in Africa.

 

Although the association doesn’t name a specific company, Cédric Leger, the CEO of the association, leaves little doubt.

“The association asked for clarification of the situation by letter,” said Léger. “And only an answer that removes all doubts about wrongdoing is acceptable from our point of view. A simple denial is not enough for us.”

In the letter sent on July 31, Léger asks Valcambi CEO Michael Mesaric to confirm or refute the allegations and also explain what corrective measures it will take if necessary.
High salaries aren’t what they seem in Switzerland

Mesaric confirmed to Sonntags Zeitung that the company received the letter but rejected the allegations.

The United Arab Emirates is now the most important country of origin of Swiss gold imports. Some 40% of the world’s gold now makes its way through Dubai. According to Swissaid, half that is from Africa and much of it is mined illegally.

“It cannot be ruled out that the gold from Dubai is of dubious or potentially illegal origin or comes from regions that are higher risk,” warns association president Leger. Another Swiss refinery, Metalor, decided several years ago to no longer process gold from Dubai. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/pressure-mounts-on-swiss-refinery-valcambi-…

* * *

END

Interesting, top Chinese regulator Guo warns that the dollar’s dominance is the seed of the crisis. It is hurting China.

(Bloomberg.GATA)

China’s bank regulator warns that dollar dominance is seed of crisis

 Section: 

From Bloomberg News
Sunday, August 16, 2020

China’s top banking watchdog cautioned that U.S. dollar dominance combined with the massive stimulus unleashed by the Federal Reserve could push the world to the edge of another financial crisis.

In a rare act of public criticism, China Banking Regulatory Commission Chairman Guo Shuqing also lashed out at developed nations seeking to divert blame from their own failures to contain the virus outbreak and moves by the U.S. to blacklist Chinese companies and entities.

… 

“In an international monetary system dominated by the U.S. dollar, the unprecedented, unlimited quantitative easing policy of the U.S. actually consumes the creditworthiness of the dollar and erodes the foundation of global financial stability,” Guo wrote in an article published today in the Communist Party’s Qiushi magazine. “The world may once again be pushed to the verge of a global financial crisis.” …

 

… Dispatch continues below …

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-16/china-s-banking-watch…

END

The sanctions against Hong Kong individuals is creating real havoc for China. This commentary explains why this is such a problem especially if it spreads to HSBC and Standard

(Syndey Morning Herald/GATA)

The U.S. dollar threat is becoming very real for China

 Section: 

By Stephen Bartholomeusz
Sydney Morning Herald
Monday, August 17, 2020

When the Trump administration imposed sanctions on 11 senior Hong Kong officials, including chief executive Carrie Lam, just over a week ago, the responses of the individuals targeted ranged from the dismissive to derision. Banks and mainland China’s financial authorities aren’t as complacent.

The sanctions were imposed on those individuals the US deemed had materially contributed to the undermining of Hong Kong’s autonomy through the imposition of the broad national security laws the city-state enacted after last year’s violent anti-government protests.

… The sanctions freeze any property or other assets owned, directly or indirectly, by the 11 individuals that are in the US or controlled by Americans or American institutions. More significantly, they also bar — and would penalise — any financial institution that knowingly does business with those sanctioned. …

 

China is acutely aware that the Hong Kong sanctions have opened a new and far more serious front in the tensions with the US. It would be relatively easy for the U.S. to extend the sanctions from the individuals to others, including banks, it decides have been complicit in China’s actions in Hong Kong.

In the front line are the banks, and not just western banks with a presence in Hong Kong.

While HSBC and Standard Chartered would appear most vulnerable because of their large exposures to Hong Kong and mainland China, for historical reasons, most international banks with any international presence have some level of exposure to Hong Kong, one of the world’s major financial centres and the financial gateway to mainland China.

It’s not only banks. Investment banks, brokers, insurers, hedge funds, private equity firms, and fund managers more generally will be checking to see whether they have any exposures, direct or indirect, to the sanctioned individuals and war-gaming their options for responding to more broadly-based actions by the U.S. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/currency-wars-the-us…

END

Is it time to ditch the crashing USA dollar?

Newman/SCMP/Hong Kong

Neil Newman: It’s time to ditch the crashing U.S. dollar and buy groceries with gold. Here’s how

 Section: 

By Neil Newman
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Monday, August 17, 2020

I was having a beer the other week with an esteemed former colleague and superb commodities commentator, Tom Holland, who was saying that he kept hearing from people thinking the U.S. dollar would “crash” and that he thought they might be right.

For the past four years at least, currency analysts and commentators were saying the U.S. dollar was too strong and would correct. The same would go for the Hong Kong dollar, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s peg in place. And indeed, if you compare it with the sterling or the euro, the US dollar is strong.

But as Tom pointed out, what would it crash against?

 

Sterling? Unlikely, with the British economy in its present state.

The euro? No, for the same reason.

The Japanese yen? Also unlikely, as it seems to reliably trade in a Y105-Y110 range against the dollar — and even if the dollar crashed against the yen, would anyone but the Americans care? Probably not.

The more likely case would be for the dollar to generally decline against all the major currencies, and of course take the Hong Kong dollar with it. I suggested to Tom that a sharp dollar decline may already have occurred, but that it happened against gold. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3097442/its-time-ditch-cr…

END

iii) Other physical stories:

GOLD AND SILVER TRADING THIS MORNING:

Silver Soars, Gold Retraces Over 50% Of Last Week’s Plunge As Dollar Dumps

Last week was a tough one for gold and silver investors. Both metals saw significant corrections. This led some people to declare the gold bull market deadBut, as SchiffGold.com notes, historically, big corrections have been a normal feature of gold bull runs.

Last Tuesday, the price of gold dropped more than 5%, falling far below the $2,000 level. It was the worst single-day rout in seven years. Gold continued to fall in Asian trading Wednesday morning and briefly dropped below $1,900 before clawing back later in the session. Silver also had a precipitous fall, diving some 13%. A lot of people went into panic mode, but as Peter Schiff pointed out in his podcast the biggest daily moves in a gold bull market tend to be down.

What the market is doing is trying to flush out the weaker players. When it comes to a bear market, it’s trying to create some hope and sucker people back into the market by having a really big rally. Well, in a bull market it’s the opposite. The market is trying to instill fear in the weaker hands, so you get these spectacular one-day moves in the opposite direction of the primary trend to shake people out, to get the weaker players out of the market so you can clear away the excess baggage and then continue the trend.”

In fact, we can look back at other big gold bull markets and see this phenomenon play out.

In 1979, gold climbed over 274%, rising from just over $200 an ounce to over $800 an ounce. But during that year, there were 11 corrections of more than 3%. At one point in August of that year, gold plunged over 12%. Seven of those corrections were greater than the 5% drop we saw last Tuesday.

Silver saw an even bigger gain in 1979, rising 480% from just over$5 to $49 an ounce. Silver corrected a dozen times that year, falling more than 5% each time. The biggest selloff led to a 23% freefall in October. Silver also dropped 18% just before making its top.

We saw a similar pattern of corrections in gold’s bull run between 2009 and 2011. In that time, gold gained 116.7% but corrected more than 3% 17 times. Eleven of those corrections were greater than 5%. That averages to roughly one big pullback every two months. The biggest drop was 10.6% in December 2009.

Meanwhile, silver dropped more than 5% 23 times during its bull run between 2009 and 2011 on its way to a 339.5% gain.

But, we already seeing prices comeback strongly with Gold having retraced over 60% of last week’s drop…

And Silver soaring once again…

This is happening as the dollar tumbles back to its lowest since June 2018…

History proves Peter right. You’re going to see big selloffs during a bull market. We will likely see plenty more before the current gold bull runs its course. It’s important not to panic when metals sell off. Keep your eyes on the fundamentals. As Peter said, they are still extremely bullish for gold and silver.

And it’s not just about the pandemic.

Gold and silver are not up because of COVID. Now, COVID is part of the reason, but it’s not the actual cause. You see, what happened is governments, and in particular central banks, they have responded to COVID by printing a lot of money. Governments are running big deficits and central banks are printing the money to monetize those deficits, especially the Federal Reserve. And so, it is the money printing.  It is the inflation that central banks are creating in order to monetize government debt that is a response to COVID — that is helping to drive the gold price higher. So, it is not COVID itself that is bullish for gold. It is the government’s response. It is central bank and Federal Reserve policy in response to COVID that is very bullish for gold.”

The bottom line is the Fed isn’t about to normalize rates or end quantitative easing or shrink its balance sheet. And it is not going to worry about inflation. As long as the Fed persists in this extraordinary monetary policy, the momentum will stay with gold and silver.

END

The big story of the weekend:  After the market closed, on the latest 13 F report Berkshire Hathaway reporting a 21 million shares purchase of Barrick and the dumping of all airlines and the complete dumping of Goldman Sachs stock + a huge chunk of other USA banks

a must read…

(zerohedge)

 

Did Buffett Just Bet Against The US? Berkshire Buys Barrick Gold, Dumps Goldman

This is going to get awkward.

Berkshire Hathaway’s latest 13F just dropped and contained inside is a signal that none other than the Oracle Of Omaha appears to now be quietly betting against The United States.

Why? Because for years – in fact for as long we can remember – Warren Buffet has denigrated gold:

In a speech delivered at Harvard in 1998, Buffett said:

(Gold) gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.

He once famously said:

Gold is a way of going long on fear, and it has been a pretty good way of going long on fear from time to time. But you really have to hope people become more afraid in a year or two years than they are now. And if they become more afraid you make money, if they become less afraid you lose money, but the gold itself doesn’t produce anything.

In his 2011 letter, Buffett noted that for $9.6 trillion you could buy “pile a” — all of the gold in the world, or “pile b” — the entire US cropland (400 million acres) plus 16 ExxonMobils and still have another $1 trillion left over.

“Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it’s likely many will still rush to gold,” he wrote. “I’m confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B.”

In 2013, Buffett even went so far as to mock investors betting on gold, saying that there were better places to put your money.

“What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow,” Buffett wrote in 2012. “During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As ‘bandwagon’ investors join any party, they create their own truth — for a while.”

At Berkshire’s 2018 annual meeting, Buffett compared $10,000 invested in stocks and gold in 1942 (the first year he invested in stocks):

“… for every dollar you could have made in American business, you’d have less than a penny of gain by buying into a store of value which people tell you to run to every time you get scared by the headlines.”

And in  his 2019 letter he reiterated:

“The magical metal was no match for the American mettle.”

All of which makes the following even more stunning…

According to the latest 13F, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway not only dumped all his airlines – as we learned previously 0 but hasalso liquidated huge amounts of its exposure to US banks (exiting Goldman Sachs entirely).

  • Berkshire’s JPMorgan Stake Down 62% to 22.2M Shrs
  • Berkshire’s Wells Fargo Stake Down 26% to 238M Shrs
  • Berkshire trimmed its bet on PNC Financial and M&T Bank as well as Bank of New York Mellon Corp., Mastercard, and Visa.
  • Berkshire Exits Goldman stake entirely

And while he modestly added to his positions in Kroger, Store Cap and Suncor Energy, the only new stock he bought in Q2 was… the world’s (formerly biggest) gold miner:

  • Berkshire took a new stake (20.9 million shares) in Barrick Gold, a holding that was valued at about $564 million at the end of that period.

Barrick Gold is up around 6% after hours…

Of course, we do note that this 13F filing reflects the stock picks of Buffett as well as his long-time deputies, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. So it’s unclear who exactly put money to work in Barrick.

So, the famously anti-gold investor has abandoned banks – ‘the backbone of America’s credit-driven economy – in favor of a gold miner (which was the largest in the world until last year when Newmont bought Goldcorp).

Is Buffett betting against America with a levered position on precious metals?

What is most ironic about all of this is that Warren’s father, Howard Buffett, is among the great gold bugs of all time.

As we noted in 2010, a must read essay by Howard Buffett, father of the “legendary” investor who initially was so very much against derivatives then promptly changed his tune, discusses fiat money and gold, and concludes that “human freedom rests on gold redeemable money.”

In this stunningly simple, straightforward, and flawless analysis, Buffett’s father stresses the relation between money and freedom and contends that without a redeemable currency, an individual’s freedom and one’s access to property is dependent on goodwill of politicians.

Buffett also says that paper money systems generally collapse and result in economic chaos. He goes on to observe that a gold standard would restrict government spending and give people greater power over the public purseLastly, back in 1948, Howard Buffett, said this the “present” is the right time to restore the gold standard. Alas, 60 years later, his advice has still been largely ignored, and as a result we have a global economy that stands on the precipice of global default with runaway budget deficits across the entire developed world. Key quotes:

“Is there a connection between Human Freedom and A Gold Redeemable Money? At first glance it would seem that money belongs to the world of economics and human freedom to the political sphere.

But when you recall that one of the first moves by Lenin, Mussolini and Hitler was to outlaw individual ownership of gold, you begin to sense that there may be some connection between money, redeemable in gold, and the rare prize known as human liberty. Also, when you find that Lenin declared and demonstrated that a sure way to overturn the existing social order and bring about communism was by printing press paper money, then again you are impressed with the possibility of a relationship between a gold-backed money and human freedom.

His conclusion is eerily prophetic with what is happening with US society currently:

I warn you that politicians of both parties will oppose the restoration of gold, although they may outwardly seemingly favor it. Unless you are willing to surrender your children and your country to galloping inflation, war and slavery, then this cause demands your support. For if human liberty is to survive in America, we must win the battle to restore honest money.

And of course, he notes that the Federal Reserve is at the forefront of those who will do everything in their power to prevent a return of the gold standard:

Most opponents of free coinage of gold admit that that restoration is essential, but claim the time is not propitious. Some argue that there would be a scramble for gold and our enormous gold reserves would soon be exhausted.

Actually this argument simply points up the case. If there is so little confidence in our currency that restoration of gold coin would cause our gold stocks to disappear, then we must act promptly.

The danger was recently highlighted by Mr. Allan Sproul, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who said:

“Without our support (the Federal Reserve System), under present conditions, almost any sale of government bonds, undertaken for whatever purpose, laudable or otherwise, would be likely to find an almost bottomless market on the first day support was withdrawn.”

Our finances will never be brought into order until Congress is compelled to do so. Making our money redeemable in gold will create this compulsion.

The full essay is below, which we are confident was never read by Howard’s “oracular” son… until perhaps very recently..

The full essay is below, which we are confident was never read by Howard’s “oracular” son… until perhaps very recently…

Did it really take him until he was 90-years-old to realize that his dad was right after all?

So what happens next? Do Munger and Buffett buy bitcoin?

 

end

Egon Von Greyerz warns what I have been warning you:  gold ETF’s including  GLD  own no gold\

(Egon Von Greyerz)

a must read…

 

Buyer Beware: Gold ETFs Own No Gold

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

Two major asset classes are major beneficiaries of the unlimited money printing and credit creation that is now taking place globally. One of them will end in tears and the other one has just started a major secular bull market.

As the world economy and financial system is disintegrating, investors are under the illusion that all is well with many stock markets still not far from their all time bubble highs.

THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN STOCK AND THE REAL ECONOMY CONTINUES

Many companies and services are haemorrhaging cash and are not going to recover for years and some never. As very few people are travelling, many airlines, cruise lines, hotels and restaurants for example will not survive. This is a global industry that employs 330 million people and represents 10% of global GDP. International tourism could fall as much as 60-80% in 2020 according to some estimates. The car industry is 3% of global GDP and is expected to drop 25% in 2020.

Real and hidden unemployment is a major problem and if furlough or social benefits are stopped many people will not survive. As many can’t pay their rents they will also become homeless.

Currently 31 million Americans are on some kind of unemployment benefits. That is 20% of all workers.

But if we include workers who are not receiving any benefits the total unemployment is 30% according to Shadow Government Statistics. This is worse than in the 1930s depression.

DREAMLAND STOCK INVESTORS IGNORE DEFICITS

Stocks market investors still live in dreamland and translate all the bad news to good news as the continuous flood of printed money and credit inject liquidity. This has always worked before so why won’t it this time? No one knows what the US deficit will be at the end of calendar 2020 but it could easily be $10 trillion as the debt grows to over $30t and on to $40 trillion within a year or two.

How wonderful for stock investors. More liquidity means higher share prices. Very few understand that all this money has zero value as it has been created out of thin air. Also, none of the money goes to productive investments but instead just to give a dying economy some temporary artificial respiration. So the worthless money will go to individuals and businesses just to survive. It will also in ever bigger quantities go to an extremely fragile financial system. In the end $100s of trillions and later quadrillions of worthless money will have been spent on non productive survival aid.

It is possible that the stock mania continues based on the fake trillions created. But at some point soon, stock markets will wake up to the nightmare the world is experiencing.

GOLD REVEALS THE DESTRUCTION OF PAPER MONEY

There is at least one asset class which reacts sensibly to the problems in the world and the continued destruction of paper money. Gold is up $200 in the last two weeks and $500 or 33% in 2020. Since the Maginot line at $1,350 was broken in June 2019, gold has gone up by more than 50% as I discussed already back in February 2019.

But the spectacular market has been silver which has virtually exploded as I have been predicting in the last few weeks.

Here is a Tweet from May 14th when the silver price was $15.50.

The Tweet was timely as silver started to move up the following day and surged $10 in the last three weeks to just under $30. Silver bottomed at $11.60 on March 18th and has gone up 2.5x since then.

The gold silver ratio duly crashed from 109 on May 14th to 72 today, a 35% fall. Since the peak in March at 128, the gold silver ratio has come down 45%.

SILVER IS EXPLODING

Silver is now in an explosive phase on the way to much, much higher levels. But the corrections will also be vicious like the one we have just seen. With such high volatility we have always advised investors not to hold more than 25% in silver and 75% in gold. Sleeping well at night is an important part of your investment strategy.

The moves we have seen in the last few weeks in gold and silver is just the beginning. The long term bull market is well established and will go to heights that no one can imagine today. And we will see much bigger daily and weekly moves than we have just experienced as the market panics due to dire financial news combined with major shortages in physical gold and silver. I would not be surprised to see gold move by $100s and silver by $10s in a single day.

GOLD ETFS ARE JUST PAPER GOLD AND MUST BE AVOIDED

The gold market has this year not just been booming in price but also in volume. For lazy investors, gold ETFs are the most convenient instrument. But buying a gold ETF is in most cases just an investment in paper gold. The holder of the paper has no security in the physical gold.

The total investment into gold ETFs and gold funds is today $316 billion or 4,878 tonnes, which is a record. The increase in 2020 in the total value has been considerable and amounts to $160 billion which is a 100% increase since the end of 2019.

So all gold ETFs and Funds are today valued at $319 billion. If we compare that to the S&P 500 total market cap of $27 trillion, it is totally insignificant. The top 5 companies in the S&P index are worth $6 trillion. Just take Apple that with their $200 billion cash pile and some stock could easily acquire all the gold funds and ETFs. This tells us how small the gold market is. In the next few years as stock markets crash and gold surges, the relative sizes of stocks versus gold will look very different.

GLD STATE STREET GOLD ETF – AN INVESTMENT IN PAPER GOLD

The biggest gold ETF is GLD or State Street. GLD holds a total 1,258 tonnes with a value of $82 billion. This makes GLD the 7th biggest holder of gold in the world.

GLD’s value has gone from $42 billion at the beginning of 2020 to $82b today as both inflow and the gold price have increased. This ETF is the primary investment vehicle that investors use when they want exposure to gold.

What most investors don’t understand is that to own a gold ETF like GLD is no better than to have a futures contract in gold.

An ETF is a tracking vehicle and doesn’t own the gold.The gold is not bought outright by GLD but is instead borrowed. The holder of an GLD share has no claim on the borrowed gold and therefore does not own anything tangible. Thus all he holds is a piece of paper with no underlying security in the form of gold in case of insolvency. The gold is borrowed or leased from a central bank and not bought with clear title. So a shareholder in GLD is just a holder of a piece of paper that doesn’t entitle him to physical gold. A paper claim on gold is very different from owning real physical gold. The gold price could surge but the ETF could still go bankrupt

As I have often pointed out, when an ETF like GLD buys gold, it doesn’t come from the Swiss refiners. Instead it comes from the bullion banks who borrows the gold from a central bank. The GLD ETF has an official audit with bar lists and numbers. But since central banks never publish a full physical audit, there is no way of knowing if the same gold has been rehypothecated several times by the central bank.

So firstly the GLD doesn’t own the gold and secondly the gold that it doesn’t own might have been lent multiple times by central banks.

GLD IS SUBJECT TO MULTIPLE COUNTERPARTY RISK

One of the major advantages with owning physical gold is that it is the only asset which is not someone else’s liability. But buying a gold ETF like GLD involves multiple counterparty risk with no ownership of the underlying metal.

Investors in GLD buy shares in the fund’s trustee, SPDR Gold Trust. The custodian, HSBC sources and stores the gold for the Trust. This obviously makes HSBC a major counterparty risk.

But HSBC also uses sub-custodians, other bullion banks and even the Bank of England to source and store the gold. This means that investors have multiple sub-custodian risk.

GLD INVESTORS DON’T UNDERSTAND WHAT THEY ARE ACTUALLY HOLDING

The above relatively detailed explanation how a gold ETF like GLD functions is intended to enlighten the investors of $82 billion in GLD what they are actually holding.

For wealth preservation investors, GLD doesn’t satisfy any of the criteria of holding a reserve asset like gold totally risk free.

The main problems with buying gold through GLD, as outlined above, are the following:

  • It is a paper security held within the financial system
  • It has multiple counterparty risk
  • The gold holdings are not segregated from custodians’ assets
  • It owns no gold directly
  • The gold is stored within the banking system
  • The gold held is probably rehypothecated
  • The gold is not fully insured
  • Investors have no access to their gold

Thus holding gold through GLD is no better than holding gold futures. For wealth preservation purposes, gold must be held outside the banking system in the safest private vaults in the world. The gold must be controlled directly by the investor with direct access to his gold in the vault. No other party must be allowed to touch his gold without his authorisation.

The gold must be held in the safest jurisdictions like Switzerland and possibly Singapore.

For major investors above $ 5 million we offer the largest private gold vault in the world in the Swiss Alps. It is also the safest gold vault in the world with a security level which doesn’t exist anywhere else. The vault is nuclear bomb proof, earthquake proof and gas attack proof. We also have vaults for investors below $5 million.

This video clip gives an idea of the mountain vault but obviously doesn’t reveal any of the major security aspects.

What it does show is how major investors must store their gold rather than holding it in extremely unsafe form like GLD. Holding physical gold in this mountain vault costs about the same as GLD and is fully insured. Buying and selling is instantaneous. Investors have full access.

Holding physical gold as described above is far superior to any gold ETF with none of the negatives. It is really surprising that major gold investors can even consider an inferior method like a gold ETF

end

A very important email and this what be viewed

The CrowHouse – PCR test

Kevin to me:

“Trying to help get this out. People are waking up but more truth needs to be put out and spread. Please listen.? The whole video is great but at the 20 min. or 22 min. it speaks to and with documentation that the Nobel Prize winning scientist who discovered the current go to test for covid called PCR test clearing states that it is not to be used for a virus only for bacteria and fungus. He states it is not effective at all on a virus. Unfortunately he can not be interviewed because he died suddenly last year at 74”

https://thecrowhouse.com/fraud.html

end
Why we buy gold!!
(courtesy Alasdair Macleod)
a must read…

The Debt-Inflation Spiral Is Driving Up The Demand For Gold

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via The Mises Institute,

Measured in dollars, the current bull market for gold started in December 2015, since which its price in dollars has almost doubled. Other than the odd headline when gold exceeded its previous September 2011 high of $1,920, only gold bugs seem to be excited. But in our modern macroeconomic world of government-issued currencies, which has moved on from the days when gold operated as a monetary standard, it is viewed as an anachronism – a pet rock, as Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal called it in 2015, only a few months before this bull market commenced.

Despite gold almost doubling, Zweig’s view of it is still mainstream. His comment follows the spirit of today’s macroeconomic hero John Maynard Keynes, who called the gold standard a barbaric relic in his 1924 Tract on Monetary Reform. Keynes went on to invent macroeconomics on the back of his 1936 General Theory, and whether you profess to be Keynesian or not, as an investor you will almost certainly kowtow to macroeconomics. It has been well nigh impossible to have a successful career in the investment industry unless you subscribe to inflationist Keynesian theories. You are required to substitute the economics of aggregates for those of the human action of individuals, upon which classical economics was based. And with it you must unquestionably accept the state theory of money.

Well, we are now witnessing the cataclysmic ending of the Keynesian fallacy – the destruction of macroeconomics in a systemic failure centered on paper markets for gold and silver…

The Rescue Attempt Has Already Failed

You may have missed the establishment’s last-ditch attempt earlier this year to save itself. Figure 1 below shows its failure:

Comex open interest peaked in January, when the gold contract was being overwhelmed by global demand. Never before had open interest been this high: the previous all-time record had been in July 2016, when it hit 658,000 contracts. At that time, the market had recovered strongly from a deeply oversold condition, the price rallying from $1,049 to $1,380, the December low in our headline chart. That was successfully crushed with open interest taken down to 392,000 and the gold price to $1,120. However, the takedown which commenced in earnest in January this year did not succeed.

There is no question that it was a coordinated attempt by the bullion bank establishment to contain a developing crisis. From its peak of 799,541 contracts on January 15, open interest fell to 553,030 on March 23. Initially, the gold price continued rising, to $1680 on March 9, but on March 18 it finally reacted, falling to $1471 in only nine trading sessions. But while open interest went on to fall to 470,000 in early June, the price exploded higher, with unprecedented price premiums developing on Comex from March 23 onward. The bullion banks’ short exposure net of longs on Comex in a rising market had risen to $35 billion and the gross position was $53.5 billion before the attempt to drive the market lower. Today, the respective figures are $38.3 and $53 billion.

The failure of this well-worn tactic precludes it from being used again. 

The Financial System Depends Entirely on Inflationary Fiat

In the investment industry it is monetary debasement that gives you your living, for the rise in the general level of prices of financial assets, measured by various indices, is little more than a reflection of the loss of purchasing power of your state’s currency. The world has been enjoying this phenomenon particularly since the mid-1970s, four years after President Nixon removed the last vestiges of Keynes’s barbarous relic from the monetary scene. A continual decline in the dollar’s purchasing power ensued. Apart from the occasional hiccup, from 1982, when the S&P500 Index rose from 291.34, to today’s 3,270, the general public has appeared to make money.

It has not been an easy environment to convincingly challenge, being populated by groupthinkers who believe their stock and property gains have been the consequence of their individual financial acumen. But one of those periodic hiccups is now upon us, threatening to be more disruptive than anything seen hitherto in our lifetimes, and which the macroeconomists in the central banks and governments tell us will require virtually unlimited inflationary finance to resolve.

The distinction between gold and unlimited fiat currency being issued by the state is important, because gold was always the money of the people, disliked by governments because its disciplines are limiting. History has always seen the right to issue money taken away from kings, emperors, and governments by their failures and handed back to the people, so the empirical evidence suggests that it will happen again. But macroeconomists argue that their science is an advance on former economic science, so what went before is irrelevant. Therefore, so is gold.

For these reasons, the investment industry is not attuned to gold. Physical gold is not even a regulated investment, which means that government regulators do not permit the funds they license to hold physical metal beyond a small exposure, if they permit it at all. The uncontentious position, taken by nearly all compliance officers, is for investment managers not to hold any. But besides mining stocks, today there are exchange-traded funds that do offer some investment exposure to gold for fund managers. Assuming, that is, that they are willing to contradict the Keynesian views of their colleagues.

Forget Currency Resets

In recent years, suggestions monetary authorities are planning a monetary reset centered on the dollar have been made by a number of observers. Central bank research into blockchain solutions have added to this speculation, but a recent paper by the IMF shows there is no consensus in central banks as to how and for what purpose they would use digital currencies—the central banking version of cryptocurrencies.

In any event, it is likely to take too long for a central bank digital currency to be implemented given the speed with which monetary events are now unfolding. Empirical evidence suggests that once initiated, a fiat currency collapse happens in a matter of months. Today, the Fed has tightly bonded the future of financial asset values to the dollar—one goes and they both go. The credibility behind financial asset values is already stretched to the limit, and the inevitable collapse, taking fiat money with it, is likely to be sudden.

As a side note, the last time a collapse in financial assets took the currency down in similar circumstances was exactly three hundred years ago—in 1720, when John Law’s Mississippi bubble failed. Interestingly, Richard Cantillon made his second fortune by shorting Law’s currency, the livre, and not his shares. His first fortune was made as a banker, lending money to wealthy speculators and taking in Mississippi shares as collateral, which he then promptly sold, pocketing the proceeds.

An attempt at a currency reset, with or without blockchains, can only be contemplated after the public has begun to abandon existing currencies. But the speed with which events unfurl when fiat currencies die precludes advance planning of currency replacements. Any attempt to produce a new fiat money after the existing one has failed will also fail—rapidly. The idea that the state can take control of the valuation of a new currency in a fiat reset in order to make it durable is the ultimate conceit of macroeconomics, the denial of personal freedom to make choices in favor of the management of the aggregate.

One of the specious arguments that arises time and again is that inflation reduces the true burden of debt. This is true for existing debt, but those who advocate it as a remedy for government indebtedness fail to understand that it also increases the cost of the government’s future debt. And while it similarly reduces the burden on private sector debtors, by destroying savings inflation it leads to capital starvation and hampers any recovery.

It is possible, and desirable, that the ills of fiat currencies will be properly addressed. But that will require an abandonment of inflationism, and a commitment to balanced budgets. It requires governments to rein in their spending, reducing their role in the economies they oversee. Statist interventions, both regulatory and mandated by law have to be axed, and full responsibility for their own actions handed back to the people. And only then can sound money, preventing governments from reverting to their inflationary ways, be successfully introduced.

Assuming all this is possible, the only sound money is one with a track record and over which governments have no control as a medium of exchange. In other words, metallic money. Governments will have no alternative to turning their currencies into substitutes fully convertible into gold, with silver in a subsidiary coinage role. Coins in both metals must be freely available on demand from all banks at the fixed rate of exchange for gold, and for silver equating to its monetary value.2 The circulation of gold and silver coins will ensure that the public fully understands their monetary role, thereby deterring future governments from inflationary policies. Bank credit must also be backed by gold, and not expanded by banks out of thin air.

But the pervasive and mistaken belief in macroeconomics appears to be an unsurmountable impediment to an orderly change toward sound money. Imposing their fervent denial of economic reality, macroeconomists are in charge of both economic and monetary policy in America, Europe, and Japan—and by extension that of almost all other nations. It is not even certain that a currency collapse will dislodge them from their position of power, prolonging the chaos that will ensue.

Talk of a monetary reset only makes any sense if those doing the resetting understand what they are doing. And one thing will become immediately clear: the Americans, who stand to lose power over global affairs, will be the most reluctant of all nations to accept that the days of its hegemonic currency are numbered and that a return to a credible gold standard is the only solution.

J Johnson’s Commodity Report

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/08/17/precious-metals-are-recovering-from-the-failures-of-the-shorts/

Precious Metals Are Recovering from The Failures of The Shorts

Posted August 17th, 2020 at 9:20 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,

      The turns have become fast and furious in our precious metals arenas with Gold adding value with the trade at $1,962.20 up $12.40 and close to the high at $1,968.50 with the low at $1,939.10. Silver leads the volatility with its trade at $27.20 up 94.2 cents with its high so far at $27.305 with the low down at $26.10. The US Dollar is barely above another set of double zeros with the value pegged at 93.055 down 3 points yet recovering from the low at 92.88 with the high nearby at 93.115. Of course, all this happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after reporter Millie Weaver and her husband were arrested by the deep state lackey’s just before her ShadowGate movie came out. This report is truly worthy of the 1 hour and 22 minutes of time to review.

      Gold in Venezuela now sits at 19,597.47 Bolivar, providing no pullback at all, and gaining 61.92 since Friday’s quote with Silver gaining 1.149 Bolivar with its price at 271.660. Argentina’s Peso price for Gold is now registered at 143,442.30 giving the holders an additional 585.11 Peso’s in value with Silver now priced at 1,988.24, upping the holders value by 10.34 A-Peso’s. The entire population in Turkey is now involved in a Bank Run and Gold Rush, with Gold’s trade now at 14,511.39 Lira’s providing the holder a 73.72 Lira gain with Silver up 1.24 T-Lira’s with the last trade at 201.160.

      August Silver’s Delivery Demands now sit at 19 fully paid for 5,000-ounce contracts and with a Volume of 12 already up on the board with a trading range between $26.795 and $26.57 with the last buy at $26.77, up 70.5 cents so far today and reducing the demand count by 3, and as the paper’s push the futures further in both directions. Friday’s full day of deliveries happened in between $27.685 and $25.905 with the last registered buy at $26.065, down $1.629 which registered a Volume of 17 swaps. Silver’s Overall Open Interest also fell by 2,591 contracts, leaving 193,452 Overnighters to go against the physicals.

      August Gold’s Delivery Demands gained 10 contracts during Friday’s trades with the count now at 623 fully paid for 100-ounce contracts and with a Volume of 3 up on the board with a $5.30 trading range between $1,954.90 and $1,949.60 with the last trade at the high, up $17.90 so far today. Friday’s completed trading day inside the delivery system happened in between $1,947.40 and $1,937.70 with the closing price at $1,937, down $19.70. Good job buying on the dip, Mr. Resolute! Gold’s Overall Open Interest lost another round of shorts as well, as 1,538 contracts left the field of play in order to get out of the way, leaving 542,380 short contracts to go against all buyers.

      Saturday had some antifa activity up in Sturgis, where the 80th Annual Motorcycle Rally occurred. What is not talked about much is that antifa was protected and escorted out, by the police they claim to hate, as the crowds all shouted them down. What antifa wanted didn’t happen, no violence from all those armed citizens at all. That must’ve completely pissed off the financial supporters of the fairytale group and has me laughing hard. Look at all those armed citizens being responsible and law abiding. I think the Democrats idea of removing guns from law abiding citizens and the NRA, are failing in epic fashion, what say you?

     Also of note, and not reported much because it proves America is not warring like it used to, is Trump has secured a historic deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and immediately after, Joe Hiden claimed he and Obama helped but that story was shut down immediately! So here we are, at the beginning of the week, with precious metals recovering from the failures of the shorts to scare out the buyers, as debt instruments continue to stink up the centrals balance sheets and as the physical shortages in precious metals continue. So, keep the faith, have a prayer for all, and keep the attitudes positive no matter what, and you too will …

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9402/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.93748   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 78.70 POINTS OR 2.34%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 164.33 POINTS OR 0.65%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 192.61 POINTS OR 0.83%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY GREEN (EXCEPT ITALY/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 92.93/Euro RISES TO 1.1855

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.21/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 41.91 and Brent: 44.65

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.42%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.96% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.34%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.38: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.09

3k Gold at $1957.50 silver at: 27.21   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 69/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.56

3m oil into the 41 dollar handle for WTI and 44 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.27 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9080 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0764 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.42%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.692% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.43%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.39..

Futures Rise To All Time Highs After Chinese Liquidity Injection

Markets drifted higher in a slow start to the week as China flooded the market with a new one-year liquidity and as most European equity indexes traded modestly in the green, shrugging off the unexpected postponement of US-China trade talks and EU regions raising coronavirus travel warnings.

U.S. equity futures rose and traded just shy of all time highs again, as retailers prepared to wind down a better-than-feared quarterly earnings season, while the countdown to Election Day was set to begin with the Democratic National Convention kicking off later in the day.

As Bloomberg notes, trading in markets was subdued on Monday as traders weighed the prospect of tighter quarantine measures against continued government support. Declines among airline shares and travel agencies kept a lid on gains in Europe as Spain and Italy told nightclubs to close and France’s public health agency warned that virus indicators are trending upward. Meanwhile, tensions are continuing to mount between the U.S. and China. On Friday, senior officials from Washington and Beijing postponed trade talks that had been set for this past weekend to discuss the status of the “phase one” trade deal signed early in the year.  A source suggested the US-China meeting was delayed as US wanted more time to allow China to increase US imports; another referenced a conference of senior Communist Party leaders

“The economy is going to continue to reopen as we move into the end of this year,” Brett Ewing, chief market strategist at First Franklin Financial Services, said on Bloomberg TV. “If you can buy into that story, you need to be ahead of money flowing into these value and cyclical stocks — if you wait for a vaccine to come out, you’re going to be missing probably the biggest opportunity right now.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 was up 0.2%, supported by commodity and technology shares amid light trading volumes. Covid-19 vaccine contender CureVac continued Friday’s rally, surging more than 50% in U.S. pre-market trading. Gains in miners and tech are offset by losses in real estate and travel names.

A bit reason for the positive overnight sentiment is that on Monday, The People’s Bank of China offered 700 billion yuan ($101 billion) of one-year funding via the medium-term lending facility, more than offsetting the 400 billion yuan in loans coming due Monday and another 150 billion yuan maturing on Aug. 26. The central bank also added a net 40 billion yuan via 7-day reverse repurchase agreements, after injecting the most short-term funding into the interbank market since May last week.

The MLF injection signals “a moderate easing of the monetary condition and will be good to China government bond performance, especially the short-dated,” said Xing Zhaopeng, an economist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Shanghai. Interbank borrowing costs also decreased following the cash additions, with the overnight repurchase rate slipping 4 basis points to 2.12%.

The PBOC’s extra liquidity injection helped the Shanghai Composite close up 2.3%. The net injection indicates “a more accommodative stance on keeping liquidity levels ample” so that commercial banks can continue to support bond issuance and to stabilize credit growth, said Liu Peiqian, a China economist at Natwest Group Plc. in Singapore.

In rates, yield curves were mixed, as bunds and gilts bull steepen slightly and Treasuries flatten. Treasuries held small gains after retreating from session highs reached during European morning, outperforming gilts and bunds. Yields were lower by as much as ~2bp across the curve with 7- to 30- year sectors leading, flattening 2s10s by nearly 2bp, 5s30s by ~1bp; 10-year, lower by ~2bp at ~0.692%, outperforms gilts and bunds by ~1bp. After last week’s supply-driven surge in long-end yields, there’s apprehension about Wednesday’s 20-year bond and Thursday’s 30-year TIPS auctions. In Europe, peripheral spreads widened marginally.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index faded a small dip in Asia to trade flat to slightly down. As a reminder, we showed on Sunday that “short dollar” is now the world’s most consensus trade.

Elsewhere, the pound rose against the dollar and edged up against the euro ahead of the next round of Brexit negotiations. The pound is trending near a five-month high against the greenback, close to forming a bullish pattern known as a “golden cross” that signals further gains ahead. The New Zealand dollar fell as Prime Minister Jacinda Arderndelayed the general election by four weeks after a rise of coronavirus cases. The Australian dollar surged past 1.10 against the kiwi for the first time since 2018 on speculation New Zealand interest rates could fall below zero.

In commodities, crude futures trade off the overnight highs, but hold a narrow range. Spot gold rises ~$7 to trade near $1,950/oz, silver gains 1%.

Figures this week are likely to show another jump in housing starts as demand surges for single-family homes in the suburbs, in turn benefiting sales of home improvement chains such as Lowe’s Companies Inc and Home Depot Inc. The retailers, along with Walmart, Kohls and Target are due to report second-quarter earnings later in the week. As of Friday, 457 companies in the S&P 500 had reported results, of which 81.4% came in above dramatically lowered expectations, according to Refinitiv data.

Also in the week ahead, the FOMC minutes due to be released on Wednesday may provide some more clues about whether officials plan to introduce new average inflation targeting language in September. Investors are also girding their portfolios for market moves ahead of the U.S. presidential vote, as election season kicks into higher gear with the Democratic National Convention, which runs Monday through Thursday. The Republican convention will be held from Aug. 24 to Aug. 27 and both will be mostly virtual this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. On today’s relatively quiet calendar, we get the latest Empire State Manufacturing data.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,371.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 368.59
  • MXAP down 0.08% to 170.88
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 564.58
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 23,096.75
  • Topix down 0.8% to 1,609.82
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 25,347.34
  • Shanghai Composite up 2.3% to 3,438.80
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 37,956.54
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 6,076.38
  • Kospi down 1.2% to 2,407.49
  • Brent futures down 0.3% to $44.66/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,950.47
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 92.99
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to -0.434%
  • Euro down 0.08% to $1.1832
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.3 bps to 0.862%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 0.345%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • European nations are fighting a resurgence of the coronavirus, with Italy and Spain ordering the closure of nightclubs and France’s public health agency warning that all of the country’s Covid-19 indicators are showing an increase
  • Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane, writing in the Daily Mail, said that the U.K. is heading for a “quick recovery” from the coronavirus crisis, expecting the economy to rise by more than a fifth in the second half of this year
  • Stocks in China rose after China’s central bank supplied liquidity to commercial lenders on Monday to help them manage upcoming government bond sales
  • Workers across Belarus are taking part to a general strike, following some of the biggest protests seen in the country, with thousands of people marching to call for the resignation of current president Alexander Lukashenko

Courtesy of NewsSquawk, here is a quick rundown of global markets:

Asian equity markets which began the week mixed amid uncertainty following the indefinite postponement of the US-China trade agreement review talks and with President Trump increasing the pressure on ByteDance and is said to be looking at pressuring other Chinese companies including Alibaba. ASX 200 (-0.8%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) were negative with Australia led lower by underperformance in financials and with a deluge of earnings updates also in focus, while the Japanese benchmark suffered on recent currency effects and after a larger than expected contraction for Q2 GDP. Hang Seng (+0.6%)  and Shanghai Comp. (+2.3%) traded positively despite the ongoing tension between the world’s two largest economies, as risk appetite was helped by efforts from the PBoC which announced a CNY 50bln reverse repo injection and a CNY 700bln in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility. Furthermore, notable gains were seen in Xiaomi and WuXi Biologics as they are set to join the Hang Seng Index from September 7th and with Xiaomi also buoyed after the CEO debuted a live showcase of products on TikTok. Finally, 10yr JGBs were slightly higher to track the mild gains in T-notes and with the weakness seen in Japanese stocks, although upside was only marginal amid the lack of BoJ presence in the market today.

Top Asian News

  • Church Flareups in South Korea Spur Fear of Old Virus Threat
  • Turkey’s Budget Falls Deeper in the Red as Pandemic Hits Revenue
  • Billionaire Agarwal’s Vedanta Tests India Junk Bond Demand

A choppy start to the week for European stocks [Euro Stoxx 50 Unch] as the region swung between gains and losses in the first hour of cash trading before calming in mixed trade. This comes as the region failed to sustain the mostly positive APAC lead amid a lack of fresh catalysts in what has thus far been a quiet start to the week. Spain’s IBEX (-0.8%) is the marked laggard as the country’s recent COVID-19 case spikes prompted the closure of nightlife, whilst Germany reaffirmed its travel warning to Spain and Tui (-4.8%) extended the suspension of flights to Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and Morocco. Sectors also see a mixed performance with no clear risk profile to be derived, with Basic Resources and Tech holding their top spots, with some aid potentially derived from the PBoC’s liquidity injection overnight, whilst Travel & Leisure, Banks and Real Estate remain the laggards. In terms of individual movers, Monday M&A action from Sanofi (+0.2%) sees the company eking mild gains as it is to acquire Principia Biopharma (PRNB) in an all-cash deal valued at approximately USD 3.4bln. The deal will further strengthen core R&D areas of autoimmune and allergic diseases, Sanofi expects to complete the purchase in Q4 2020. Under the deal, outstanding Principa shares will be purchased for USD 100/shr (vs. Friday’s USD 90.74/shr close), and thus the Co. trades over 10% higher in the pre-market. Elsewhere, Deutsche Lufthansa (-2.0%) conforms to the overall underperformance in the travel sector, albeit the group reached a deal with UFO union on cost cutting measures, but talks have been broken off with the Verdi union on ground personnel.

Top European News

  • U.K. Exam Crisis Grows as Johnson Faces More Chaos This Week
  • Europe’s Fading Rebound Turns Recovery From V-Shape to Bird Wing
  • Europe Travel Shares Fall Again Amid Further Virus Setbacks

In FX, a real Monday summer lull and lacklustre trade in the currency markets, with the DXY going nowhere fast or far from the 93.000 pivot that has been keeping the index and Greenback in general tethered for a while. The US fiscal impasse continues and even the eagerly awaited showdown with China to assess progress towards the Phase 1 trade pact was postponed for another day, so the weekend has passed by without any real meaningful event. Moreover, today’s agenda is hardly promising in terms of potential catalysts to prompt some price action, as the European calendar is bare beyond weekly ECB QE tallies and the US docket only comprises NY Fed manufacturing and NAHB surveys. Back to the DXY, 93.124-92.887 covers the range and the base is just shy of last week’s low as a reference point.

  • CAD/NOK – Marginal G10 outperformers, and perhaps deriving some traction from firmer crude prices, while the former awaits the BoC’s Q2 Senior Loan Officer Survey and latter acknowledges a significantly narrower trade deficit in the run up to this week’s Norges Bank policy meeting. Usd/Cad is straddling 1.3250 and Eur/Nok is still eyeing the psychological 10.5000 level after recent probes below, but no sustained break.
  • JPY/AUD/GBP/CHF/EUR – All narrowly mixed against the Buck, as the Yen rotates around 106.50 in wake of weak GDP and ip data, the Aussie spans 0.7175, Pound flits either side of 1.3100, Franc hovers just above 0.9100 and 1.0750 vs the Euro as Eur/Usd trades around 1.1850. Note, another hefty Swiss bank sight deposits has not hindered the Chf, but did result in some selling pressure last week.
  • NZD – The Kiwi is still lagging and underperforming on NZ’s COVID-19 resurgence that has forced the Government to extend mortgage deferrals by another 6 months to the end of Q1 next year and a new Nzd 510 mn salary subsidy for 470k jobs. Nzd/Usd is towards the bottom end of 0.6523-53 parameters and Aud/Nzd has extended post-RNBZ gains sharply to over 1.1000 before paring back a bit.
  • EM – No adverse reaction to the aforementioned US-Sino trade deal meeting delay, as the PBoC set a firm Cny midpoint fix overnight and added more 7-day liquidity alongside medium term funds, but the Try has depreciated yet again amidst more Turkish trouble in Syria and the Med, not to mention a wider budget shortfall. Usd/Try has been above 7.3950 irrespective of the CBRT’s longer term repo auction.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have waned off overnight highs since European players entered the fray, again with little to report in terms of fresh fundamentals. That being said, source reports late Friday noted that China will significantly increase imports of US oil – an area China has been lagging in under the Phase 1 deal. On the OPEC front, the JMMC will reportedly be meeting on Wednesday. Although no major surprises are expected, focus will likely fall on any commentary surrounding the oil market outlook, whilst credence will also be given to the compliance of the OPEC+ stragglers and whether they are over-complying as promised. Turning to the US, Friday’s Baker Hughes rig count saw active oil rigs continuing to decrease (-4), but analysts are skeptical that US producers will be able to sustain current production levels given the slump in drilling activity. “Although US producers should be able to bring back some production, even with the limited drilling activity. The Industry is still sitting on a large amount of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs), and so can complete these wells in an attempt to sustain production levels” ING writes. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver continue grinding higher, initially due to a weaker USD, but thereafter the preciously metals found mild support at USD 1950/oz and USD 26.60/oz respectively. Precious metal traders this week will be eyeing the FOMC Minutes, US-Sino events, COVID-19 developments, and US stimulus bill updates. Meanwhile, Dalian iron ore prices continued to edge higher, marking a third straight session of gains amid an upbeat demand prospects for steel-making, but traders are also keep an eye on the supply side of the equation. Nickel prices meanwhile were supported by tighter supply from a key supplier – the Philippines.

DB’s Craig Nicol concludes the overnight wrap

Two weeks left to play in August and given the calendar for this week there’s every chance that they live up to their billing as the last couple of weeks of the summer lull. Hope for any fiscal breakthrough in the US may have to wait for now with the Democratic and Republican nominating conventions taking place over the next couple of weeks. As our economists noted in their weekly over the weekend however, this presents a problem for the 28.3 million Americans who were receiving some form of unemployment insurance as of the last week in July and who ostensibly (if they had not found a job) had their monthly income fall by over 60% in August. It is also an issue for monetary policymakers who have consistently emphasized the need for further fiscal support to aid the recovery.

To that end, the FOMC minutes from the July 29 meeting should be one of the more interesting events this week – especially if there are signs of a potential average inflation target being discussed – with the other being the various surveys ending with the flash August PMIs on Friday. This should give investors one of the first indications of how the global economy has fared moving into the month, so it’ll be interesting to see if the recent positive momentum in most of the PMIs is sustained. For reference in the July PMIs, with the exception of Japan, all of the other countries (Australia, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK and US) had PMIs above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction.

So we’ll see if that helps the S&P 500 complete the final half a percent or so needed to take it to new all-time highs. The other talking point has the bear-steepening in rates which for Treasuries saw 2s10s jump to 56bps, steepening 13bps on the week. A reminder that our global rates strategists’ think there could be more to come and target 0.85% on the 10y Treasury (about 15bps above this morning’s level). See their full note here.

In terms of the weekend just gone, the most notable thing to report is what hasn’t happened with the scheduled meeting between officials from the US and China over progress of the Phase 1 trade deal being postponed. President Trump did however officially order TikiTok’s parent to sell its US assets. Despite that, China stocks have surged this morning with the Shanghai Comp up +2.27% and CSI 300 +2.44%. The Hang Seng has also risen +1.28%. This follows the PBoC injecting CNY 700bn of 1yr funding via the medium-term lending facility. Other markets are lower this morning however – the Nikkei down -0.92% and ASX -0.66%. Elsewhere, yields on 10yr USTs are down -1.4bps and futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.28%. WTI crude oil prices are also trading up +0.81%.

As for the latest on the virus, new cases in the US grew by +0.8% over the past 24 hours vs. 0.9% at the same point last week. Meanwhile, New Zealand delayed its national elections by 4 weeks over the concerns around the recent virus outbreak and South Korea reported 197 cases in the past 24 hours after warning over the weekend of a fresh wave, most of them linked to an outbreak at a church. Elsewhere, Italy and Spain told nightclubs to close, while France’s public health agency warned that all of the country’s Covid-19 indicators are trending upward.

Finally, to recap last week’s moves, risk assets ended the week higher on the whole, in spite of the continued stalemate on a new US stimulus package, with the S&P 500 advancing +0.64% (-0.02% Friday) to close within half a per cent of its all-time high back in February. Volatility also continued to subside, with the VIX index coming down a further -0.16pts to 22.05, its lowest level in nearly 6 months. Elsewhere, equity indices also advanced in Europe, with the STOXX 600 up +1.24% (-1.20% Friday), and the DAX up +1.79% (-0.71% Friday), though sentiment in Europe was rather dampened on Friday by new quarantine rules on French travellers imposed by the UK, as well as continued rises in cases across the continent.

With investors moving into risk assets, safe havens suffered through the week, with yields on 10yr Treasuries rising +14.5bps (-1.1bps Friday) to 0.709%, and gold down -4.44% (-0.44% Friday) in its largest weekly decline since March. Over in foreign exchange markets, the dollar index fell a further -0.36% (-0.26% Friday), while the traditional safe haven Japanese yen weakened by -0.63% (+0.31% Friday) against the US dollar.

The moves on Friday came against the backdrop of some fairly mediocre US data releases. Firstly, retail sales in July rose by a less-than-expected +1.2% (vs. 2.1% expected), though the June reading was revised up by nine-tenths of a per cent to +8.4%. Meanwhile the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment indicator for August showed that sentiment was still weak, with the reading rising to just 72.8 (vs. 72.5 in July), and well below the 101.0 back in February. And finally, industrial production was up +3.0%, in line with expectations.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 78.70 POINTS OR 2.34%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 164.33 POINTS OR 0.65%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 192.61 POINTS OR 0.83%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .69%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9402 /Oil UP TO 41.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and 44.65 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9402 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.93748 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea/the globe/coronavirus update/Sunday

New COVID-19 Cases Hit 5-Month High In South Korea, France Smashes Post-Lockdown Record: Live Updates

After reviving mandatory mask orders in Paris, French officials on Sunday proposed making face masks mandatory in shared work-spaces as the country continued to grapple with a coronavirus rebound.

 

The health ministry reported 3,310 new infections on Sunday, marking a post-lockdown high for the fourth day in a row, while the number of clusters being investigated has increased by 17 to 252. The spike in new cases prompted the UK to impose a mandatory 14-day quarantine on any travelers returning from France.

 

While France drew most of the attention in Europe Sunday morning, South Korea triggered anxieties in Asia after reporting a staggering 279 new cases on Sunday, breaking above 200 for the first time in five months, with a set of clusters in the greater Seoul area contributing most of the new cases.

Of these new cases, 146 were in Seoul and 107 were linked to Sarang Jeil Church, which is led by Reverend Jun Kwang-hoon, a controversial pastor and an outspoken government critic. SK Health ministry officials said they would file a complaint against the leader of the church for violating social distancing rules.

Meanwhile, South Korea and the US said they would delay the start their annual joint military drills until Tuesday after a South Korean officer tested positive. That marked a 2 day delay.

Chinese state media reported that the number of people in Xinjiang with coronavirus who have recovered far exceeded the number of newly reported cases for the 9th day in a row, a sign that the outbreak in the far-flung region dominated by an oppressed Muslim ethnic group is finally starting to wane.

Only 4 new cases were reported across the vast region on Sunday, down from 19 new cases across the entire country on Sat.

Worldwide, total cases have passed 21.35 million after another roughly 260,000 cases were added yesterday…

 

…while deaths have topped 769,000, after another 5,000 were reported.

 

More than 13.36 million people have recovered worldwide.

Cases in the US climbed by 47,813, or 0.9%, less than the 1% increase over the previous week, data compiled by JHU and Bloomberg showed.

Deaths related to Covid-19 rose by 1,046 nationwide, the fifth-consecutive day with more than 1,000, though almost 300 fewer than the previous day, according to the data.

On the vaccine front, the CFO from CureVac told the FT it wouldn’t sell its coronavirus vaccine candidate at cost, but would instead ask for an “ethical margin”. Considering that experts have widely accused Moderna and others of pricing their still-unapproved vaccines at exorbitant prices.

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

 

Chinese landlords are now hit with its first rent price slump as their economy falters. Later Sunday evening, China injects more liquidity into their markets.

(zerohedge)

 

China’s Landlords Hit With First Rent Price Slump As Economy Falters 

Middle-class households in China are facing the first rental income slump ever, sparked by the virus-induced downturn, pressuring the private-property market.

Rents are declining in many metropolitan areas, mainly due to jobless tenants leaving town. A glut of empty apartments is becoming a major headache for landlords, as rent discounts have been introduced to entice tenants to remain in leases.

Reuters spoke with Li, who declined to give her full name, said she was scaling up the social ladder with the ownership of two apartments that were used for a steady rental income stream before the virus pandemic.

Li now said she’s “almost halved the rent at one of her apartments between February and May to hang on to a tenant, while her own salary was slashed 25% as her employer made coronavirus cutbacks.”

“I must pay the rent of my room in Beijing, and monthly mortgages for the two apartments,” she said.

She is among the millions of middle-class landlords in China who have been devastated by the downturn. Many of these folks are experiencing the first period of rental income declines, as some are highly leveraged.

Housing data provider Zhuge House Hunter said rents in 20 major cities fell 2.33% in July YoY, the fourth consecutive month of declines.

Rental woes in China reveal housing market froth that is at risk of imploding if the overall economy remains downward sloping.

Demand for short-term rentals is also another problem for landlords, stripping any alternatives for generating income on their properties.

“Two groups … suffer the most,” said Yuan Chengjian, vice president of Zhuge House Hunter. “One is long-term rental firms … the other is investors who buy properties through high leverage financing because they pay off part of their mortgages with rent.”

Reuters also spoke with Luo Shuzhen, a landlord with two buildings totaling 80 rooms for sublet, said she must postpone updates on her buildings because tenant numbers have dropped 30% this year.

“It’s hard to say how long the epidemic would last, so I’m not sure whether I can maintain the rental business in the second half,” said Luo, who runs a convenience store.

The next big problem for landlords is the stalling recovery. China’s retail sales slipped in July, dashing hopes for a robust “V-shaped” recovery.

With mortgage defaults low, the non-performing loan ratio in the country stands around 2.1% at the end of June.

Tracy Wan, senior director of Asia-Pacific structured finance at Fitch Rating, said:

“Half of the transactions in the securitization market use 90 days as the definition for default, while the other half use 180 days. For those who use 180 days, you’d have a longer time to recognize defaults, and that number is still going up.”

And while landlords in China are pressured by plunging rental income, a similar story is playing out in New York City.

end
The White House hammers Huawei again with more restrictions on the use of American chip technology
(ZEROHEDGE)

White House Hammers Huawei With More Restrictions On Using American Chip Technology

After President Trump last night gave ByteDance 90 days to divest TikTok’s US business, the Trump Administration kicked off a week that will be dominated by coverage of the Democrats’ “virtual” convention by doubling down on its attacks on Huawei at a particularly sensitive time for the telecoms giant, as we explained in a recent post about the discontinuation of production for a critical microchip.

Shortly after Reuters published the scoop, the Commerce Department confirmed its plans to further tighten restrictions governing the company’s access to chips made using American technology, even if these chips are produced by foreign firms. The company will also add 38 Huawei affiliates in 21 countries to the government’s economic blacklist, the sources said, raising the total to 152 affiliates since Huawei was first added in May 2019.

The department put out a press release with more details on the order, along with a statement from Secretary Ross:

“Huawei and its foreign affiliates have extended their efforts to obtain advanced semiconductors developed or produced from U.S. software and technology in order to fulfill the policy objectives of the Chinese Communist Party,” said Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. “As we have restricted its access to U.S. technology, Huawei and its affiliates have worked through third parties to harness U.S. technology in a manner that undermines U.S. national security and foreign policy interests. This multi-pronged action demonstrates our continuing commitment to impede Huawei’s ability to do so.”

The PR also listed the 38 new Huawei affiliates being added to the Entity List over “threatening…the national security or foreign policy interests of the United States.”

Huawei Cloud Computing Technology; Huawei Cloud Beijing; Huawei Cloud Dalian; Huawei Cloud Guangzhou; Huawei Cloud Guiyang; Huawei Cloud Hong Kong; Huawei Cloud Shanghai; Huawei Cloud Shenzhen; Huawei OpenLab Suzhou; Wulanchabu Huawei Cloud Computing Technology; Huawei Cloud Argentina; Huawei Cloud Brazil; Huawei Cloud Chile; Huawei OpenLab Cairo; Huawei Cloud France; Huawei OpenLab Paris; Huawei Cloud Berlin; Huawei OpenLab Munich; Huawei Technologies Dusseldorf GmbH; Huawei OpenLab Delhi; Toga Networks; Huawei Cloud Mexico; Huawei OpenLab Mexico City; Huawei Technologies Morocco; Huawei Cloud Netherlands; Huawei Cloud Peru; Huawei Cloud Russia; Huawei OpenLab Moscow; Huawei Cloud Singapore; Huawei OpenLab Singapore; Huawei Cloud South Africa; Huawei OpenLab Johannesburg; Huawei Cloud Switzerland; Huawei Cloud Thailand; Huawei OpenLab Bangkok; Huawei OpenLab Istanbul; Huawei OpenLab Dubai; and Huawei Technologies R&D UK

end

China Was Biggest Dumper Of US Treasuries In June As Foreign Central Banks Resumed Selling

Foreigners were net buyers of US Treasuries in June ($28.9b), but official entities cut their holdings by $20.6bn as private buyers bought $50.3bn. Additionally,

  • Foreign net buying of equities at $28.5b
  • Foreign net selling of corporate debt at $16.6b
  • Foreign net buying of agency debt at $38b

 

The return of selling by official entities in June comes after buying $10BN in May, which was the first purchase by foreign CBs since August 2018!

And while May saw record stock-buying by foreigners, in June this slowed down quite a bit to $28.5BN from $79.9BN…

 

 

China was the biggest dumped of US Treasuries in June, cutting its exposure by $9.3 billion…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Others selling US Treasuries in June included Spain, Hong Kong, Canada, and Australia.

On the other side, France added the most Treasuries, $13.7 billion in June…

 

Source: Bloomberg

India was also a big buyer in June (adding $12.8 billion) along with Singapore, Belgium, Ireland, Taiwan, and Korea.

But for now, the trend is not your friend if you’re trying to finance record high deficits…

 

end

Not good: Ex CIA officer charged with spying for China:  he gave a substantial amount of highly classified information

(zerohedge)

Ex-CIA Officer Charged With Spying For China; Disclosed “Substantial Amount Of Highly Classified” Info

The DOJ has charged a 15-year veteran of the CIA with selling US secrets to China – after he accidentally revealed his spying to the FBI, according to NBC News – which notes that “The method prosecutors said they used to get him to reveal the nature of his espionage was worthy of a spy novel itself.”

Court documents said 67-year-old Alexander Yuk Ching Ma of Honolulu was charged with violating U.S. espionage laws. Prosecutors said he joined the CIA in 1967 then served as a CIA officer until he retired from the agency in 1989. For part of that time he was assigned to work overseas in the East-Asia and Pacific region.

Twelve years after he retired, prosecutors said Monday that Ma met with at least five officers of China’s Ministry of State Security in a Hong Kong hotel room, where he “disclosed a substantial amount of highly classified national defense information,” including facts about the CIA’s internal organization, methods for communicating covertly, and the identities of CIA officers and human assets. –NBC News

Following his departure from the agency, Ma became a Chinese linguist in the FBI’s Honolulu field office, where he allegedly used his access to highly classified information to copy or photograph sensitive documents concerning the United States’ guided missile and weapons systems, as well as other sensitive information he passed along to his Chinese handlers, according to the charging document.

Ma was caught after the FBI arranged a meeting with an undercover officer claiming to be from a CCP operative investigating “how Ma had been treated, including the amount he had been compensated” by the Chinese government.

The allegedly traitorous spook was captured on video counting $2,000 in cash given to him by the operative, who told Ma that it was to acknowledge his efforts for Beiing.

Ma, a Hong Kong native, said on tape that he “wanted ‘the motherland’ to succeed,’ and admitted to providing classified information to China’s Ministry of State Security.”

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/GERMANY/SATURDAY

Production Of Russian COVID-19 Vaccine Begins As Asian Demand Soars; Germany Sees Most Cases Since April 30: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Germany sees most new cases since April 30
  • Demand for Russian vaccine surges in Asia
  • India passes 2.5 million cases
  • Hong Kong reported 46 new cases
  • Tokyo reports another 300+ cases
  • Cali first state to pass 600k cases
  • Gov Newsom says state will start with remote learning
  • Brazil sees daily cases decline

* * *

Europe and India are the focus of coronavirus news on Saturday as Germany continued to report alarming numbers of new cases while India saw its case total top 2.5 million.

As India’s confirmed COVID-19 case total passed 2.5 million on Saturday, health officials reported. Meanwhile, speaking during the traditional Independence Day speech, a major event on the Indian political calendar, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that the country is ready to mass produce vaccines as soon as scientists give them the green light, while also unveiling an ambitious project to catalogue the “health identities” of each Indian citizen – quite an undertaking considering India’s 1.35 billion pop. That comes after ambitious projects.

In a sign of the desperate situation facing Modi’s administration, the soldiers who welcomed Modi to the stage ahead of Saturday’s speech had been quarantined for 14 days, and the crowd at the normally packed crowd was reduced to just 4,000 or so guests made to sit six feet apart, according to Al Jazeera.

India confirmed another record single-day jump on Saturday, reporting 65,002 new cases, and snapping a streak of declining confirmations, as the country’s total tally hit its latest milestone. Public health officials also reported 996 new deaths, bringing the total to 49,036. India now has the world’s third-highest confirmed body count, behind only the US and Brazil.

While the west continues to view Russia’s vaccine with skepticism, across East and Southeast Asia, the response has been much more positive. For example, demand for Russia’s COVID-19 vaccine from the region is growing faster than anywhere else, as the Philippines leads a growing number of Asian and South American countries in signing up to run clinical trials, or buy supplies of the vaccine from Russia, according to a report in the Nikkei Asian Review.

Russia reported another 5,061 cases, bringing its nationwide tally to 917,884, the 4th-highest in the world behind the US, Brazil and India.

119 new deaths were also reported, bringing Russia’s death toll to 15,617, a number that some COVID experts have disputed.

Russia also officially announced Saturday that production of its vaccine, which would be limited to health-care workers at first, had finally begun, although the vaccine can’t be distributed for general use until January.

As fears about a second wave in Europe intensify while the UK, Germany and others hastily reinstate some travel restrictions in response to isolated outbreaks in Spain, France, the UK and even in its own backyard.

On Saturday, Germany reported 1,510 new coronavirus cases, its biggest single-day number since April 30, according to the Robert Koch Institute data (Germany’s “official” numbers. Total cases rose to 223,791, while 13 new deaths were reported, a number roughly in line with figures seen through August and July.

Germany’s 4-day viral-reproduction figures – represented as “R” – hit 1.08 for the prior day, north of Germany’s “1” red line (1 is the threshold above which the virus is considered to be expanding). The 7-day figure, seen as more stable, was even higher, at 1.14 on Friday.

Hong Kong reported 46 new coronavirus cases Saturday, including seven that had a travel history and 12 of an unknown origin, according to Department of Health official Chuang Shuk-kwan. The city’s worst outbreak has been showing signs of abating as local infections have remained below the 100 level daily since earlier this month, per Bloomberg.

Tokyo, meanwhile, topped 300 for the second straight day on Saturday, with the capital megacity’s new infections totaling 385 for the day, down slightly from 389 from the day prior.

In Australia’s troubled Victoria State, the epicenter of what’s currently the biggest outbreak in the antipodes, reported 303 new cases and four deaths over the past 24 hours on Saturday. Fortunately, the number of new cases has been trending lower since the state recorded 725 new infections on Aug. 5. On Friday, the state saw 372 new cases and 14 deaths in 24 hours. Meanwhile, nine new cases were diagnosed in New South Wales, its health department said on Saturday, one day after the release of a special commission report on the disastrous “Ruby Princess” incident. The latest numbers brought NSW’s total cases to 3,756.

Circling back to the numbers out of the US last night, Texas’s daily virus deaths topped 300 (exact total: 313) for the second day in 3 on Friday, while hospitalizations continued to decline for a third straight week. Texas now has 9,602 deaths, leaving it right on the cusp of 10,000.

The state reported 313 virus fatalities Friday, bringing the total to 9,602. Hospitalizations fell to 6,632, down from more than 10,000 in late July.

California became the first US state to top 600,000 confirmed infections late Friday after reporting another 7,934 new cases bringing its total to 601,075.

Yesterday, Cali Gov. Gavin Newsom said that roughly 90% of the state’s K-12 students will begin the year with ‘distance learning,’ but classes in person could begin “soon” if daily COVID cases continue to trend lower.

The new cases included 4,429 from a lab-reporting backlog of prior days and 3,505 new daily infections, Governor Gavin Newsom said in a briefing Friday. That’s well below the 14-day average of 7,678.

Finally, health authorities in Brazil reported a silver lining on Friday evening, with Brazil reporting just 50,644, down from 60,091 the prior day, for a total of 3,275,520.

END

ITALY/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

Italy Closes Nightclubs As COVID-19 Revival Rocks Europe; US Deaths Top 1k For 5th Day: Live Updates

Summary:

  • US deaths surpass 1k for 5th day
  • Italy closes nightclubs
  • India passes 50k deaths
  • Australia suffers record death toll

* * *

When the world looks back on the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, the virus’s conquest of Lombardy, the northern Italian region surrounding Milan that’s known as the locus of Italian industry, will likely be remembered as a catalyst of the terror that quickly spread across Europe and the US.

And now, after COVID-19 cases have steadily crept higher in recent weeks, it looks like Italy is preparing to to start reimposing restrictions on nightclubs and bars just after unveiling plans to re-start in-person learning across the country.

Italy isn’t alone: France, Spain and Germany have all reimpose restrictions ranging from partial localized lockdowns to mandatory mask orders to restrictions on travel over the past few weeks as the number of new cases has started to bounce back across Europe.

Specifically, Italy is shutting bars and nightclubs for three weeks and making it compulsory to wear a mask outdoors at night in some parts of the country where new cases are increasing. The restrictions are similar to the nightlife rules imposed by Hong Kong to combat its “third wave” of the outbreak a few weeks ago, as younger people are largely emerging as the primary drivers of these latest outbreaks.

While the median age of new infections has dropped below 40, the number of new cases reported over the last week has doubled from three weeks ago.

Just a few days after passing 2.5 million cases, India reported 941 new COVID-19 deaths, bringing the country’s total north of 50,000. India is in fourth place globally in terms of the death toll.

India has the fourth-highest number of deaths globally, after recently surpassing the UK’s tally. The virus’s spread continues to accelerate through the world’s 2nd-most populous country, with the total number of confirmed case at more than 2.6 million, the third most in the world.

After reporting its largest batch of new cases in 5 months yesterday, South Korea reported 197 more cases of coronavirus on Monday, amid a flareup of infections. The country warned over the weekend of another mass infection after reporting the highest number of coronavirus cases since early March, most of which are linked to an outbreak at a church in the capital.

In the US, deaths topped 1,000 for the fifth day in a row.

Finally, Australia suffered its deadliest day yet, with 25 deaths recorded in the state of Victoria, home to Australia’s second-largest city, Melbourne…

…which is presently the epicenter of the country’s worst outbreak yet.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran/UN/USA

USA fails to convince UN  Security council to vote on extending Iran arms embargo

a useless organization.

(zerohedge)

US Fails Utterly In Friday Night UN Security Council Vote On Extending Iran Arms Embargo

The US bid to extend a UN Security Council total arms embargo on Iran which had been in effect for 13 years, but which is set to drop this fall as part of the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), has ended in utter failure late this week.

As The Hill reported of the vote Friday night, the resolution didn’t even come close to gaining the requisite nine “yes” votes which would have forced Russia or China to use their vetoes.

 

Illustrative file image: UN Security Council meeting at United Nations headquarters in New York. AFP

Officially, the final tally was 11 abstentions, two yes and two no votes. After all of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s lobbying through the summer to essentially make permanent an international arms blockade on the Islamic Republic the US had only two votes in favor: its own and that of the Dominican Republic.

All European members of the P5+1 nuclear deal as expected were abstentions. The vote began via remote means Thursday due to the pandemic with the results tallied and announced by late Friday.

Just before the Friday evening Security Council announcement of the resolution’s results, Pompeo voiced frustration, saying the council “failed today” in its mission. He previously said it was “nuts” to allow Iran to purchase and import weapons.

“The United Nations Security Council is charged with the responsibility of maintaining international peace and security. It failed today to uphold its fundamental mission set,” Pompeo said.

 

Iran missiles on display, via Iran state media.

“It rejected a reasonable resolution to extend the 13-year old arms embargo on Iran and paved the way for the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism to buy and sell conventional weapons without specific UN restrictions in place for the first time in over a decade,” he continued. “The Security Council’s failure to act decisively in defense of international peace and security is inexcusable.”

 end
TURKEY/SUNDAY
It is not hard to understand the huge plight of Turkey.  The lira is in freefall and the banks are hit with bank runs.  The Turks are turning  not to dollars but to gold.
The Central Bank of Turkey is trying to stem the low by allowing 8.25% rate on deposits. It has no buyers as inflation is running at over 11%
(zerohedge)

Turkey Hit By Bank Runs, Currency Panic As Locals Sell Their Cars And Houses To Buy Gold While Lira Implodes

It has been a miserable five years for Turkish citizens who have seen their purchasing power slashed by more than half, and it’s only getting worse.

The Turkish lira has cratered against the dollar and most developed currencies, plunging from 3 TRY per dollar, to a record low 7.37 last week after a brief and valiant attempt at imposing shadow capital control by Erdogan (who is now de facto head of the Turkish central bankfailed miserably at the end of July, and not even a draconian hike in overnight funding rates above 1000%  last week (to crush the shorts) was able to prevent a plunge in the Lira to new all time lows.

As their currency implodes (in a nation that is becoming increasingly more “banana” with each passing day as Erdogan solidifies his takeover of every government institution, in the process turning off any potential foreign investors) Turks are discouraged from material purchases of dollars to hedge the collapse in their native currency due to some of the strictest capital controls on the planet, which has left them with just one option.

As Reuters reports, Hasan Ayhan followed his wife’s instructions last week and took their savings to buy gold at Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar as Turks scooped up bullion worth $7 billion in a just a fortnight while their currency went up in flames.

 

Goldsmith at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Turkey. Photo: Reuters

The retired police officer, hit by vivid memories of the 2018 currency crisis which saw the Lira lose 30% of its value virtually overnight, was among those playing it safe as he queued in the city’s sprawling covered market, where a screen showed the gold price rise by one Turkish lira ($0.1366) in just 10 minutes.

What’s more, it now appears that locals are choosing gold over the dollar, perhaps because the dollar has also been tumbling against gold in recent weeks due to the Fed’s overt attempts to debase the greenback.

“I think it is the best investment right now so I converted my dollars to buy gold,” the 57-year-old said, adding: “I might withdraw my lira and buy gold with it too, but I am scared to go to the bank right now because of coronavirus.”

Well, Hasan, for people in Turkey it is the best investment, but there is a rather high chance that Erdo pulls an FDR and makes it illegal for anyone in Turkey to own gold so you and your fellow countrymen may want to have a series of unfortunate boating accidents in the coming weeks.

In any case, the day after Ayhan bought his gold on Aug 6, the lira hit a historic low and has continued to slide, laying bare concerns that Turkey’s reserves have been depleted by market interventions, which are showing signs of fizzling out, even as the central bank and president flood the local airwaves with fake news about monetary stability and urge locals to keep their money in lira.

Only this time it’s not working: Turks have traditionally used gold as savings and there may be as much as 5,000 tonnes of it “under mattresses”, with more added after the recent buying spree, Mehmet Ali Yildirimturk, deputy head of an Istanbul gold shops association, said.

And although gold has never been more expensive – in either lira or dollar terms – vendors at Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar said almost no one is coming to sell their gold jewellery. There are only buyers.

“I’ve been chatting with hundreds of people who are thinking about selling their cars or houses to invest in gold,” said Gunay Gunes, whose busy booth is near the market’s entrance.

 

Gold dealer Gunay Gunes selling gold for Turkish lira: Photo: Reuters

Putting the recent gold-buying frenzy in context, in just the last three weeks, as selling gripped the lira local holdings of hard assets such as dollars and gold jumped $15 billion to a record of nearly $220 billion, making a mockery of the central bank’s attempts to halt the currency slide.

The good news is that, according to Reuters, so far there is no evidence suggesting people are about to pull savings from banks, and this week the lira has hovered around 7.3 versus the dollar, although it remains among the worst emerging-market performers this year. Demand has eased since Turks withdrew some $2 billion in hard foreign cash from their banks during a March-May period in which a lockdown was imposed and the lira hit its last low, according to central bank banknote data.

But that will surely change should the free falling the lira accelerate. Indeed, analysts say that if Ankara cannot boost confidence in the currency, which has fallen almost 20% this year, import-heavy Turkey risks inflation and even a balance of payments crisis that will worsen fallout from the coronavirus crisis. It also guarantees even more weakness for the lira, and even more buying of gold.

 

Gold dealer Gunay Gunes talks to Reuters during an interview at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul. Photo: Reuters.

Meanwhile, with foreign investors now having only a small stake in Turkish assets after the government’s authoritarian approach has spooked many of them away, it is critical for President Tayyip Erdogan to convince Turks and local businesses to stop turning to the perceived stability of dollars and gold. One look at the chart above suggest that’s not working.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Berat Albayrak – who just happens to be Erdogan’s son-in-law – said on Wednesday the lira’s competitiveness is more important than exchange rate volatility. The central bank has effectively borrowed on local dollar liquidity to fuel its foreign exchange market interventions, which are meant to stabilize the lira, according to data and the calculations of traders and economists.

Through Turkish state banks, which together are “short” foreign exchange by $12 billion, the central bank has sold more than $110 billion since last year, Reuters data show. In turn, the bank’s gross FX buffer has fallen by nearly half this year to below $47 billion, its lowest in 14 years.

While the CBRT has downplayed the plunge in reserves, saying the “fluctuate” in stressful periods with the Treasury chiming in to say say the bank intervenes at times to stabilize the currency, ratings agencies and investors say Ankara should take decisive steps such as an interest rate hike to rebuild reserves and restore confidence. Otherwise, rising current account deficits and a possible debt default could tarnish the country’s formerly solid reputation for meeting foreign obligations.

And, as Reuters notes, these debt repayments are set to rise in October, but the local aren’t waiting the 2 months to see how the current crisis plays out.

To halt the bank runs, some banks imposed fees on withdrawals this week, while the central bank has curbed cheap credit channels it had opened to ease the coronavirus fallout. Yet while lira deposits now earn more than the 8.25% policy rate their real return is negative with inflation at 11.8%.

Perhaps Erdoganomics, whereby the president mandated to “fight” high inflation with lower rates in contravention of all norms and rules of economics, will ultimately end up destroying Turkey just as so many expected.

Or maybe not: traders say backdoor tightening needs to reach 11.25% to stabilize the lira, which has nearly halved in value since early 2018, sowing anxiety over diminished living standards in a country accustomed to free trade and travel; still Erdogan is firmly against higher rates claiming they slow down the economy, so instead the result has been currency destruction, because at the end of the day one can’t simply “order” economic prosperity.

Meanwhile, Erdogan shows no sign of budging, and on Monday he said he hoped market rates would fall further “god willing.”

But firms such as System Denim, which imports some materials and makes clothes for foreign companies like Zara and Diesel, are feeling the pinch from rising investment costs. Owner Seref Fayat said he recently converted his 4% euro-denominated loans to lira at 10%.

“No need to take on additional FX risk,” he said. “Now I pay a higher rate, but at least I can see ahead.”

END
ISRAEL/  UAE//MIDDLE EAST
The Israel UAE peace deal explained in detail and how it will mark a big shift in thinking and the balance of power in th Middle East. Israel is backing the Sunnis who are scared to death of the Shiite Iran.
(courtesy SouthFront)

Israeli-UAE Peace Deal Marks Tectonic Shift In Middle Eastern Balance Of Power

By SouthFront,

The Middle East is on the brink of the new tectonic shift in the regional balance of power. The previous years were marked by the growth of the Iranian and Hezbollah influence and the decrease of the US grip on the region. The January 2020 started with the new Iranian-US confrontation that had all chances to turn into an open war. August 2020 appeared to mark the first peace agreement between an Arab state and Israel in more than 25 years.

Israel and the United Arab Emirates have reached a historical peace agreement. US President Donald Trump announced the breakthrough agreement on August 13, calling Israel and the UAE “great friends” of his country. In a joint statement, Israel, the UAE and the U.S. said the agreement will advance peace in the Middle East. The statement praised the “bold diplomacy” and “vision” of the three country’s leaders.

Delegations from Israel and the UAE are expected to meet within a few weeks to sign bilateral agreements regarding investment, tourism, direct flights, security, telecommunications, technology, energy, healthcare, culture, the environment, the establishment of reciprocal embassies, and other areas of mutual benefit.

In the framework of the peace agreement, Israel will suspend declaring sovereignty over areas outlined in Netanyahu’s “Vision for Peace” in the Western Bank. Also, Tel Aviv will reportedly focus its efforts on “expanding ties with other countries in the Arab and Muslim world.” The agreement will also provide Muslims with greater access to the Al-Aqsa Mosque and other holy sites in the Old City of Jerusalem. It still remains in question how Israel will comply with its part of the deal as the annexation of Palestinian territories is the cornerstone of its regional policy.

In the near future, the United States will likely work to motivate other Gulf states to follow the UAE’s footsteps. In particular, another US regional ally, Saudi Arabia, is already widely known for keeping close ties with Israel in the field of security and military cooperation. Both states are allies of Washington and are engaged in a regional standoff against the Iranian-led coalition of Shiite forces.

The support of the UAE-Israeli agreement is also a logical step for the Trump administration’s regional policy, which is based on the two main cornerstones: the unconditional support of Israel and the confrontation with Iran. Through such moves, Washington may hope to create a broader Israeli-Arab coalition through which it will try to consolidate the shirking influence and contain the ongoing Iranian expansion in the region. At the same time, the overtures with Israel, which has undertaken wide and successful efforts to destabilize neighboring Arab states, could cause a public backlash among the Arab population and contribute to its further dissatisfaction with the course of its leadership. All these developments, together with the consisted Iranian policy aimed at the defense of Palestinians, will increase the popularity of Iran as not only defender of Shiites across the Middle East, but all Muslims in general. Tehran has been seeking to achieve this goal for years and achieved a particular progress in the field. The US-Israeli aggressive policy in the region also played an important role in fact promoting the popularity of the so-called Axis of Resistance. Now, the Iranian soft power in Arab states will become even more noticeable and create additional threats to Gulf states involved in a direct confrontation with it.

end
SYRIA/USA
USA convoy came in contact with Syrians at a Syrian checkpoint. Unlike other times, the USA fired upon them and killed one soldier and wounding two others
(zerohedge)

Major Exchange Of Fire Between US & Syrian Armies Results In Casualties

Trump’s “secure the oil” policy in Syria is set to get increasingly costly as tensions rise and more such confrontations inevitably occur: on Monday US occupying forces and the Syrian Army exchanged fire in a rare direct clash, reportedly ending in casualties on the Syrian government side.

It happened in northeast Hasakah province just southeast of Qamishili, in an area where for the past couple years American special forces have bolstered Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Associated Press writes of the rare but not without precedent deadly encounter:

U.S. forces clashed with Syrian troops in the northeast on Monday, killing at least one soldier and wounding two others, state media said, while the U.S. military said it responded to small arms fire near a Syrian checkpoint.

 

American patrol in Syria, file image: Wiki Commons

It appears to have all started when a US military convoy approached a Syrian national checkpoint manned by soldiers.

Like with some prior confrontations, the Syrian soldiers refused to let the Americans through, given Damascus sees them as illegal occupiers of their sovereign soil. This was similar to incident last month where bloodshed was barely avoided, and US armored vehicles were forced to turn around.

In that prior instance pro-government forces threatened to fire on the Americans.

RT Arabic was the first to publish video from the confrontation on Monday. Gunfire can be heard erupting, with spoke billowing from the government checkpoint:

But in this instance, it appears firepower was unleashed. A US helicopter was also reportedly part of the response, according to state-run SANA. AP continues:

State news agency SANA quoted an unnamed Syrian military official as saying a U.S. helicopter gunship attacked an army checkpoint in the village of Tal Dahab, near the town of Qamishli, at around 9:45 a.m. (0645 GMT). The official said a Syrian soldier was killed and two others were wounded.

The US ground convoy had been ordered by Syrian Army forces to turn around at “Rasho Checkpoint,” regional reports say.

There were initial reports that a major airstrike may have been conducted, but official Pentagon statements have denied this.

While some pro-Syrian government sources say the Americans took on casualties during the clash, no official casualties have been reported by the US military.

6.Global Issues

Worldly events as explained by Michael Every

(courtesy Michael Every)

The Minsk-y Pinch

 

By Michael Every of Rabobank

We start this August Monday morning with Chinese markets in positive mood (Shanghai +2.2%) and Japan feeling somewhat dour (Nikkei -0.9%); after all, the former saw the PBOC inject more liquidity, while the latter saw Q2 GDP record the largest decline since 1955 at –27.8% annualised. Actually, in today’s world I am surprised the Japanese news didn’t prompt a major rally. US 10-year Treasury yields are around 0.70% at time of writing vs. the near 0.50% level that was prevailing until recently. Yes, some recent data have been slightly better than expected, but not retail sales on Friday, and to keep the rest there will still need that next stimulus package we don’t have yet. Furthermore, market surveys everyone is net short the USD: if there is one thing guaranteeing that we get a rip-roaring swing the other way, it’s that. On which front, there is certainly lots of risk-off momentum for markets to follow – if they can pay attention.

There are further virus problems in holiday-time Europe, as Brits scurry back from France to avoid 14-day quarantine, with Greece and Turkey perhaps to follow, and Italy now closing nightclubs down; in New Zealand, which has had to push back their general election a month to 17 October; South Korea, this time in Seoul; and Malaysia has detected a new virus strain that is 10x more infectious similar to that which has popped up elsewhere. Again we see markets are wrong to be saying Covid is “like, literally, so 2019.” Positively, however, we might be on the cusp of a new instant virus test – which would be handy given the existing systems clearly aren’t working. Just like the UK A-level system, Boris Johnson’s latest snafu, and which seems to be the only thing the UK media can talk about apart from ruined summer holidays in France.

In the US, President Trump said he may take further action against Chinese tech firms, including Alibaba, following the bans on WeChat and TikTok. Not that any of them will be listed in the US by 2022 anyway. The online semi-annual US-China trade deal review was also postponed due to “scheduling conflicts”. Was somebody ‘washing their hair’, an excuse every bit as realistic as when reeled out to avoid a date? Those banking on the longevity of this deal to stop decoupling are certainly going to end up taking a bath. More so as the US just agreed to sell dozens of the latest generation of F-16 fighters to Taiwan for the first time since 1992, which will go down well in China;

In China, the South China Morning Post reports on a Saturday speech by Xi Jinping which states “the foundation of China’s political economy can only be a Marxist political economy, and not be based on other economic theories”. Is that clear enough to people who think economics and politics are separate? And for those arguing the US and China must remain simpatico (“because markets”), the “dominant position of public ownership cannot be shaken, and the leading role of the state-owned economy cannot be shaken.” All well and good for China: but that leaves every other country to either accept that uneven playing field, in which case China’s vast scale will sweep their own industries aside, or to set free-market standards behind a protective wall – which is called decoupling. Or, to mirror China’s policies back at it – which is still called decoupling. (But don’t expect the Bloombergs of this world to grasp the cold, hard, fact of hard Cold War, because they don’t have a political-economy goal-seeking, state-subsidised Chinese equivalent threatening *their* market niche.)

On which front, there are huge public demonstrations in Belorussia, which show signs of potentially threatening the regime, with reports of even some ambassadors switching to the opposition. Russia is now talking about sending in troops if needed, which opens a potential can of worms similar to Ukraine on the EU’s border again. That’s a headache for more than the EU and Putin, of course: China’s Xi Jinping was the first to call and congratulate Belorussian President Lukashenko on his recent, utterly-predictable re-election. (Or “re-election”, as the protestors say.) There are also major student protests in Thailand (where GDP was -9.7% q/q in Q2) that openly call for fundamental changes in Thai society, evidence of a huge, and perhaps unbridgeable, generational divide. Thailand doesn’t get much global media coverage apart from tourist-related stories at the best of times, but it was pivotal state in the last Cold War, and could be again in this new one. Tellingly, it is not currently in the camp prepared to shut China out of its planned 5G network.

Unlike Israel, which had been enthusiastically embracing China as an economic partner until recently, and which marks a geostrategic realignment alongside that of the new normalisation of relations in the Middle East. There, one also needs to focus on what the financial press are again not: on Friday, the UN Security Council voted 2-2 (with 11 abstentions, including the UK, France, and Germany – of course) and so failed to extend the Iranian arms embargo, which will now lapse in October, allowing Russia and China to sell weapons to it again. On Saturday, President Trump made clear he plans to impose ‘snap-back’ sanctions on Iran this week, a move even John “Bomb ‘em” Bolton has publicly opposed. In short, Iran is again going to be ‘risk off’: and if Russia and China press ahead with arms sales, the US will do the same with (more) sanctions on them.

Meanwhile, in Turkey, which is also connected to this larger dynamic, there is official fury over old remarks (from 16 December) made by US presidential candidate Joe Biden calling for the removal of President Erdogan. Not that this is stopping the public from wanting to hold USD (or gold, apparently), and TRY is at 7.3756 this morning.

To finish where we started, it’s not impossible that this kind of backdrop sees further upwards momentum in equities – it’s the easy thing to do if you don’t (or do) read the papers; but it’s unlikely to justify any such sustained move in bond yields; and the USD is still an accident waiting to happen to some.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1855 UP .0017 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS/CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSTLY GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.27 DOWN 0.278 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3086   UP   0.0007  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3227 DOWN .0020 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 78.70 POINTS OR 2.344% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 164.33 POINTS OR 0.65%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,69%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 164.33 POINTS OR 0.65%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 78.70 POINTS OR 2.34%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 69% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 192.61  POINTS OR 0.83%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1955.00

silver:$26.99-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.692% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.42 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 92.93 DOWN 11 CENT(S) from  FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.35% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.04%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.33%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.95 DOWN 5 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 62 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.45% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.38% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1866  UP     .0027 or 27 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.02 DOWN .543 OR YEN UP 54  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3096 UP .0018 POUND UP 18  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 42 basis points to 1.3206

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9329    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9323  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  7.390 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.04%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 0.672 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.41 DOWN 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.86 DOWN 24  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 22.75  0676%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 36,72 POINTS OR .28%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 16.49 POINTS 0.33%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 62.10 POINTS or 0.87%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 40.90 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 42.56 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 45.05 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    73.46  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.59 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 59 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.45 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  42.83//

 

 

BRENT :  45.29

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.688…down 2 basis points

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.41,, down one basis point..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1868 ( UP 31   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.99 DOWN .570 (YEN UP 57 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.85 DOWN 24 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3105 UP 27  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 7.3613

 

 

the Russian rouble 73.613   DOWN 0.79 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 79 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3196 UP 57 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.345%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 86.11 POINTS OR 0.31%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 110.42 POINTS OR 1.00%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.53 CLOSED DOWN .44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.270%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

S&P Fails To Make New Record High As Buffett’s Barrick Bid Pumps Precious Metals

Precious Metals outperformed today as the world came to grips with Berkshire Hathaway’s ‘rotation’ from banks to bullion (dumping Goldman and much of its financial exposure and buying Barrick Gold)…

Gold futures tagged $2000…

And Silver soared…

Barrick Gold is up 11%…

And Bitcoin also surged today, finally busting back above $12,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Likely helped by this…

All of which took place as the dollar dumped back to its lowest in over two years…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, stocks were mixed with Nasdaq soaring, The Dow disappointing and Small Caps and the S&P managing modest gains…

The S&P 500 continued to try and hold above its previous record high close (3386.15)…

Bonds were also mixed with the longer-end bid and short-end flat…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices spiked today despite weak Empire Manufacturing data as stocks popped…

And Dr.Copper continued its rebound after last week’s tumble…

As LME’s global warehouse network is holding the least copper since 2008…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, with the S&P desperately testing record highs, we wanted to clarify one thing… it’s not about the fun-durr-mentals…

Source: Bloomberg

Tick-tock, time’s up for the dead-cat-bounce…

Source: Bloomberg

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

So ends, New York’s manufacturing V shaped recovery:  new orders decline

(zerohedge)

The ‘V’ Is Over – Empire Manufacturing Survey Slumps In August As New Orders Decline

While analysts expected a modest decline in the Empire Manufacturing survey (from 17.2 to 15.0), the soft sentiment signal tumbled to just 3.7, suggesting the exuberant rebound from the depths of lockdown is over…

 

Source: Bloomberg

The drop was driven by a decline in new orders as it appears the restocking pent-up demand moves are over.

Nearly 34% of respondents said that business conditions are improving, while about 30% said activity was declining. The bank’s gauge of new orders fell to minus 1.7 from 13.9 and the shipments index dropped to 6.7 from 18.5.

 

And finally, we note that optimism among New York manufacturers about economic conditions over the next six months cooled with ‘hope’ sliding to 34.3 from 38.4.

 

 END
This can certainly work against fraud: each person would receive a code and that code would give a proper identification of the person and also ensures vote anonymity
This is certainly a good application for block chain
(zerohedge)

The USPS Just Filed A Patent For A Blockchain-Based Secure-Voting System

It looks like the United States Post Office is getting in the business of voting.

It has recently been unearthed that he USPS filed for a patent on February 7, 2020 for a “Secure Voting System” that uses a blockchain access layer. Obviously, this could be one of the strongest signals of a welcome adaptation to blockchain by the U.S. government since blockchain was thrust on the map by Bitcoin.

“A voting system can use the security of blockchain and the mail to provide a reliable voting system,” the patent application says. “A registered voter receives a computer readable code in the mail and confirms identity and confirms correct ballot information in an election. The system separates voter identification and votes to ensure vote anonymity, and stores votes on a distributed ledger in a blockchain.”

The “United States Postal Service” is listed as the applicant on the application.

“Voters generally wish to be able to vote for elected officials or on other issues in a manner that is convenient and secure,” the application says. “Further, those holding elections wish to be able to ensure that election results have not been tampered with and that the results actually correspond to the votes that were cast. In some embodiments, a blockchain allows the tracking of the various types of necessary data in a way that is secure and allows others to easily confirm that data has not been altered.”

Equally as interesting as the patent itself is the fact that the application was filed before the coronavirus had wreaked total havoc on the country and long before the idea of mail in voting was being tossed around by pundits and the mainstream media on the daily.

Brian Roemmele pointed the discovery out on Twitter:

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Huge story: 1/3 of all Americans have unpaid housing bills in August

(zerohedge)

Nearly A Third Of Americans Had Unpaid Housing Bills In August 

Nearly a third of Americans for the fourth consecutive month failed to pay rent or mortgage payments in full. Personal finances of millions of folks have quickly deteriorated through summer. Unpaid housing bills are mounting as the virus-induced downturn continues to unleash the worst employment crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

A new survey via Apartment List, an online rental platform, found 32% of renters (and homeowners) entered August with unpaid housing bills. At least 20% of respondents owed more than $1,000. Among renters with back rent due, 49% have renegotiated lease agreements with their landlords or are doing so. 

Here’s the percentage of renters and homeowners with unpaid housing bills.

Renters and landlords are renegotiating lease agreements over unpaid rent obligations.

“As the pandemic rages on, missed housing payments are continuing to pile up. For the fourth straight month, we found that roughly one-in-three Americans failed to make their full rent or mortgage payment in the first week of the month,” Apartment List said.

The website added, “many of the protections and benefits put in place at the outset of the pandemic are now expiring, and the prospects for another round of stimulus remain uncertain. As unpaid housing debt builds, concerns around eviction and foreclosure are mounting. Although landlords and lenders are showing a willingness to negotiate, housing security is currently in jeopardy for an unprecedented number of Americans.”

The survey (of about 4,000 people) sheds more light on the finances of the average American has rapidly deteriorated over the summer with deep economic scarring realized as depressionary unemployment levels risks derailing the economic recovery.

Even before the virus-induced recession, the bottom 90% of Americans had insurmountable debts and limited savings. As soon as the mass layoffs hit in late March, tens of millions of folks saw their incomes quickly evaporate, unable to service bills, buy food, or like we’re focusing on this piece, pay rent, or mortgage payments.

The Trump administration quickly responded to this distress by handing out $600 per week stimulus checks, imposing an eviction moratorium, and allowing homeowners to defer mortgage payments in a forbearance program.

So when stimulus checks stopped on July 31, and the eviction moratorium expired a couple of weeks ago, this means millions of Americans are greatly suffering in August.

With no timeline on the next round of stimulus, and or even if the rent eviction moratorium will be reimposed, the poor financial health of Americans doesn’t lend credibility a V-shaped recovery will be seen this year.

end

New York

The rental apartment market in Manhattan is a disaster as he hit record high vacancies.

(zerohedge)

Empty Apartments in Manhattan Hit Record High As Two Year Crisis Begins  

New York City’s rental market, the largest in the US, has fallen under severe pressure over the last four months as city-dwellers make a run for the exit. The outbound migration flow has resulted in a record number of empty apartments.

Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel published a new report this week (seen by CNBC) outlines how New York City has a whopping 13,000 empty apartments as landlords struggle to find tenants. The amount of vacant apartments supersedes the financial crisis a decade ago, which many landlords and multifamily operators are in for a rude awakening as their rental income streams evaporate.

The number of apartments for rent, or listing inventory, more than doubled over last year and set a record for the 14 years since data started being collected, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. As the number of apartments listed for rent hit 13,117, the number of new leases signed fell by 23%.

July also saw the largest fall in rental rates in nearly a decade, dropping 10%. Landlords are now offering an average of 1.7 months of free rent to try to lure tenants, according to the report, which is also a recent high.

While hundreds of thousands of residents left the city in March and April in the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, brokers and landlords hoped many would start returning in July and August, as the city’s lockdown eased and brokers could start showing apartments again. July and August are usually the busiest rental months of the year, as families get ready for school. But July’s weakness, and what brokers say is already a slow August, suggests thatManhattan’s real estate and economic troubles could extend well into the fall or beyond. – CNBC said, citing the report

Manhattan rents are slumping this summer and are expected to keep declining well into 2021. The average rental price of a two-bedroom apartment is about $4,620.

The surge in empty apartments was widespread across the borough. Declines in new leases were seen across the board, from the high to low end segments. The report said the Upper East Side was hit the hardest, saw a 39% decline in new leases over the month.

A record number of empty apartments in Manhattan will have ripple effects industrywide and on indirect industries.

Miller warned: “This could be a difficult couple of years for landlords.” 

end
New York
A GHOST TOWN
Just take a look at 5th Avenue!! shocking!
(zerohedge)

“Ghost Town”: Shocking Dystopian Video Of NYC Shows An Abandoned And Boarded Up 5th Avenue

De Blasio’s New York has finally hit an all-time low: the once bustling city is now on the verge of looking like a demilitarized zone. Between the pandemic and the riots in the city, iconic 5th Avenue now looks more like a dystopian nightmare in a recently shot video posted to Twitter.

The video follows a car driving down a deserted 5th Avenue, with almost all of the area’s high end stores boarded up and shut down. There are few people seen on what is usually a busy street.

“Look at everything. Everything’s boarded up. Even the hotel. Boarded up,” the video’s narrator, who is obviously fed up with how the city looks, says.

He continues: “This is all Manhattan, boarded up. Have you ever seen Manhattan look like this? The media will not report this.”

“Everything boarded up. They don’t want to show this to you people because they’re afraid. Saks 5th Avenue – boarded up from end to end. They put up barbed wire. Everywhere you see boards, windows are gone. Look at New York City – what happened,” he says.

 

The video was originally posted as a response to another Tweet that seems to tell the developing tale about DeBlasio’s New York:

Chicago
a mess!
(zerohedge)

Chicago Shuts Down Its Business District Overnight This Weekend Due To Continued Riots And Looting

Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot desperately wants the world to believe that she has the situation in her city under control and that she doesn’t need help from the federal government – nor would she ever need it from President Trump.

But while she puts that facade on during interviews and press conferences with national media, the reality of constant looting, rioting and crime in Chicago continues to unfold; as do its consequences. 

For example, this weekend, the city will shut down its Central Business District overnight, effective at 9PM each night. The decision comes “in the wake of looting and unrest downtown, on the Magnificent Mile, and in Streeterville, River North, and the area near North and Sheffield avenues,” according to CBS Chicago.

The details of the shutdown, according to CBS, include:

  • Lake Shore Drive will be closed between Fullerton Drive and the Stevenson Expressway, and the inbound ramp at Belmont Avenue will also be closed;
  • All Chicago River bridges will be up by 9 p.m., except LaSalle Street, Harrison Street, Lake Shore Drive, Columbus Drive, Kinzie Street, Grand Avenue, and the Ida B. Wells/Congress Bridge, which will be open going west toward the Eisenhower Expressway only;
  • Residents and employees of area businesses may access the Central Business District at Harrison Street, Chicago Avenue and Halsted Street, Roosevelt Road and Canal Street, Kinzie Street and Halsted Street, and LaSalle Street.
  • On the Dan Ryan and Kennedy expressways, all ramps from Roosevelt Road to Division Street will be closed in both directions;
  • Chicago Transit Authority rail service will be shut down between Fullerton Avenue and 47th Street and east of Halsted Street. But service will remain operational, but some buses will be rerouted by bridge and street closures.
  • Divvy bikes will not be available in the area bounded by North Avenue, Ashland Avenue, Cermak Road, and Lake Michigan.

Chicago Police will be stationed at entrances to the perimeter of the area, the report says. Residents and workers will need to show identification to prove they live or work in the area.

The city has also implemented a “Neighborhood Protection Plan” throughout communities to supplement Chicago Police.

Recall, it was less than a week ago we reported that Chicago’s mayor had flipped out on a journalist for simply repeating what Police Chief David Brown had said moments prior: that looters are emboldened by the city’s lax response.

Chief Brown had said: “These looters, these thieves, these criminals are emboldened by no consequences in the criminal system. They get released. Many charges get dropped. And so they feel emboldened to do it more, do it more. That is not a consequence of the officers’ not making the arrests. The officers are making the arrests. The consequences are once prosecution and sentencing comes up, there’s no consequences. So we would argue that let’s have the criminal justice system here deliver a strong message to these criminals that there will be consequences for your behavior.”

The reporter then asked: “It almost sounds as though you’re saying this is… the reason this happens is that the courts and the prosecutors were not doing their job. That they were going too easy on the looters from the last time around.”

Chief Brown responded: “Don’t take it from me, just go by what’s been done. There were no consequences for the people arrested.”

Mayor Lightfoot, then clearly triggered, follow up by saying: “Don’t bait us. Do not bait us. Do not bait us. This is a serious situation. People are concerned about their safety. Officers are concerned about their safety. So don’t bait us. What we’re saying is, as a result of what happened last night there have to be consequences.”

You can watch the exchange here:

end
The facts behind the UPSP drama
(zerohedge)

Unpacking Fact From Fiction Behind The USPS Drama

With the left in a collective fit over a conspiracy theory that President Trump is about to steal the election by crippling the US Postal Service, Twitter user @AGHamilton29 has provided a cogent analysis unpacking the latest leftist miasma dominating the news cycle.

The thread continues… (emphasis ours)

1) Dems are pushing for universal mail-in election. Republicans oppose this and say it creates a possibility for fraud. There is a reasonable compromise,such as what is planned in KY, that would allow absentee ballots for all who want one, early voting, & election day voting.

2) The USPS has been in terrible financial shape for years. It is consistently losing money. Dems want to bail it out. Republicans want it reformed. There is not an immediate fiscal danger as current funding is sufficient through 2021.

2A) The treasury has offered the USPS an additional 10 Billion loan as of the end of July if needed. That loan does come with some strings for reforms, but it does not look like it is needed for immediate operation until late in 2021.

3) Trump did go on tv and say he opposes the bailout of USPS, and specifically cited his opposition to universal mail voting (which he says helps Dems) as the reason. As pointed out in 2, This has been used to suggest he is using USPS to undermine the election.

3A) However, as pointed out in 2, there is no immediate funding issue that would hinder the USPS from supporting the election.

Funding is not the problem with a massive wave of mail-based voting, deadlines and timing are.

4) The USPS has done a bunch of regular actions that are now being cited as irregular by people who don’t know better. One example is the removal and moving of pick-up mailboxes from low-traffic areas. USPS has agreed to pause it anyways to avoid the controversy now.

5) As the USPS is an organization with serious fiscal issues and due to COVID-19 impact, they are undergoing delays in shipping and structural changes/cuts in response. The union/activists oppose these and thus are trying to tie them to the election.

5A) Many of these actions have occurred before (replacing/eliminating sorting machines outside hubs). Every agency/group is taking cuts and reduced hours right now. There is no evidence those changes have anything to do with or would affect the election.

6) The real problem with the election is the regular deadlines are impossible to ensure with USPS shipping times. Some states allow ballot requests 4 days before the election! That’s why USPS sent out letters to states warning them of need for changes in timing to protect votes.

In conclusion, this is going to be one of the most logistically difficult elections in history.

Mail-in voting creates real problems and concerns. There are solutions that require compromise.

None of that supports the partisan conspiracy mentioned at the beginning.

end
This is good:  CNN poll lead on Trump tumbles by 10 points and now the lead is only by 4 points.  Probably BIDEN is now behind TRUMP\
(ZEROHEDGE/Watson/summit News)

CNN Poll: Biden’s Lead On Trump Tumbles By 10 Points After Two Months Of Rioting

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A new CNN poll has found that Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump has shrunk by 10 points after over two months of unrest and rioting in major American cities.

CNN’s last survey, conducted in early June when riots had largely been confined to Minneapolis, had Biden ahead by 14 points. Now he leads by just 4.

“Biden leads President Donald Trump by just four points nationally — 50 percent to 46 percent — and by even less across 15 battleground states that will determine who wins the electoral college,” reports Breitbart.

“In those 15 states — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin — the new CNN poll has Biden leading by just one percent, with Biden at 49 and Trump at 48.”

The poll indicates that the riots have not only convinced many independents and moderates to vote for Trump, but that the unrest has also hardened support amongst Trump’s base.

Indeed, the numbers show that the President’s backing among conservatives has been boosted from 76% to 85%. Those between the ages of 35 and 64 now lean towards Trump having favored Biden back in June.

The survey was also conducted after the announcement of Kamala Harris as Biden’s running mate, suggesting her selection has done nothing to help Biden or even harmed his chances.

[ZH: Notably, only 27% of the poll respondents self-identified as Republicans]

Who would have thought that two and a half months of American cities burning, with the tacit support of Democrats, would have harmed their chances? Incredible.

[ZH: And compare to Hillary’s 2016 “lead”, Biden is marginally ahead]

Source

On a serious note, the fact that Biden is still ahead even after a long hot summer of total bedlam inspired by extremist far-left rhetoric that the Democratic Party has encouraged is somewhat disturbing.

*  *  *

My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

CALIFORNIA
Rolling blackouts and a prolonged heatwave..causing huge fires is creating further havoc on top of the coronavirus
(zerohedge)

Rolling Blackouts, Prolonged Heatwave, And ‘Fire-nados’ Sends California To The Brink           

Californians flocked to beaches, recreation areas, and lakes this past weekend to seek relief from one of the most extreme heat waves in a generation, straining the state’s power grid to the brink of collapse, reported Bloomberg.

The heatwave brought triple-digit temperatures to parts of California over the last three days and sparked concerns of fiery tornados on Saturday.

On Sunday, the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Weather Prediction Center (WPC) tweeted temperatures from Death Valley, a desert valley in Eastern California, in the northern Mojave Desert, reached 130F, the first time since 1913.

Scorching temperatures were so intense, the state’s electrical grid warned of a continuous electricity supply shortage for Sunday into Monday and Tuesday.

California Independent System Operator (California ISO) had purchased additional power to prevent another rolling blackout and issued a Flex Alert, urging customers to reduce energy in the afternoons.

Severin Borenstein, a board member of the ISO and energy economist at the University of California, Berkeley, told SFGate that rolling outages are expected to continue early this week:

“There is a real concern that they would have to do it again tomorrow and Tuesday,” he said Sunday about the rolling outages.

We noted Saturday that rolling blackouts started Friday when the state’s power reserves had fallen below a critical threshold due to elevated temperatures increased demand for power. The grid issued a “Stage 3 Grid Emergency,” which triggered the “load interruption.”

According to ABC News, this is the first round of “Stage 3” blackouts facing the state since the 2000-2001 energy crisis that forced the state’s largest utility – PG&E – into bankruptcy and led to the ouster of former Gov Gray Davis.

The blistering heat was also a major concern for firefighters battling several wildfires in Northern California.

Wendell Hohmann, an NWS forecaster, said a large, fast-moving wildfire in the Sierra area resulted in the weather service to warn local residences about firey tornados.

Factor in energy blackouts, prolonged heatwave, and firey tornados, on top of a virus pandemic and socio-economic collapse, well the state is being pushed to the edge ahead of the presidential elections.

END

 

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Ex FBI lawyer is caught red handed in altering documents trying to obtain a FISA application on Carter Page. No wonder he is pleading guilty. He reported to Weizmann and to James Barker.  These are the next guys to be nailed on the ladder leading up to Obama

Two commentaries

(zerohedge)

Ex-FBI Resistance Lawyer To Plead Guilty In Durham’s Trump-Russia Probe

Former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith will plead guilty to one count of making a false statement regarding his involvement in the agency’s actions against the Trump campaign during the 2016 US election, according to the Associated Press.

In November, the New York Times revealed that Clinesmith was under criminal investigation for allegedly doctoring materials used to obtain renewals of the Carter Page surveillance warrant. Clinesmith -who worked on both the Hillary Clinton email investigation and the Russia probe, was part of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s team, and interviewed Trump campaign advisor George Papadopoulos.

Clinesmith, a 37-year-old graduate of Georgetown Law, “took an email from an official at another federal agency that contained several factual assertions, then added material to the bottom that looked like another assertion from the email’s author, when it was instead his own understanding,” according to the report.

Mr. Clinesmith included this altered email in a package that he compiled for another F.B.I. official to read in preparation for signing an affidavit that would be submitted to the court attesting to the facts and analysis in the wiretap application.

The details of the email are apparently classified and may not be made public even when the report is unveiled. –New York Times

Viva la resistance

Clinesmith was identified by Inspector General Michael Horowitz as one of several FBI officials who harbored animus towards President Trump, after which he was kicked off the Mueller Russia investigation in February 2018. Two other FBI officials removed for similar reasons were Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, both of whom also worked on the Clinton and Trump investigations, and both of whom have similarly left the bureau.

On November 9, 2016 – the day after Trump won the election, Clinesmith texted another FBI employee “My god damned name is all over the legal documents investigating his staff,” adding “So, who knows if that breaks to him what he is going to do.”

A former attorney with the FBI’s National Security and Cyber Law Branch while working under FBI’s top lawyer, James Baker, Clinesmith resigned in September 2019 after he was interviewed by Horrowitz’s office. Horrowitz in turn sent a criminal referral to US Attorney John Durham, who was tasked with investigating the Obama DOJ’s conduct surrounding the 2016 US election.

Durham was appointed by Barr last May to examine the FBI’s actions against the Trump campaign during and after the 2016 US election, code named “Crossfire Hurricane.”

Specifically, Durham has been probing whether Obama administration officials illegally collected intelligence on the Trump campaign, and whether the agency’s surveillance of campaign aides was free of improper motive.

On Thursday night, Attorney General William Barr told Fox News host Sean Hannity that there would be “significant developments” before the election – but that today’s wasn’t going to be “earth-shattering,” and would instead provide “an indication things are going along at a proper pace, as dictated by the facts in this investigation.”

We’re not doing this on the election schedule,” he said, adding “We’re aware of the election. We’re not going to do anything inappropriate before the election. But we’re not being dictated to by this schedule.

Durham’s efforts were deemed worthy of a former criminal investigation last October, which undoubtedly spooked many of the spooks involved in the operation against the Trump campaign.

By designating it a criminal investigation, Durham was granted the power to subpoena documents and witnesses, to impanel a grand jury, and to file criminal charges.

Last April, Barr said that he believed “spying” had taken place against the Trump campaign, and that he doesn’t buy former FBI officials’ version of how the collusion investigation began.

The FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane counterintelligence investigation into the 2016 Trump campaign was launched in July 2016 to investigate allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections, including possible links between Russia and any political campaigns.

The investigation was taken over in May 2017 by then-special counsel and former FBI Director Robert Mueller. By April 2019, he concluded that the investigation found no evidence to establish that Trump or his campaign had knowingly conspired or coordinated with the Russian government to sway the outcome of the election, although the Russian government was found to have interfered in the 2016 election. –Epoch Times

On Thursday, Barr told Hannity that “if people crossed the line, if people involved in that activity violated criminal law, they will be charged.”

And in July, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said that he was expecting criminal charges to result from Durham’s investigation.

“They spied on my campaign, which is treason. They spied both before and after I won. Think of that. Using the intelligence apparatus of the United States to take down a president,” Trump said recently during a live phone interview with Fox Business, adding “It’s the single biggest political crime in the history of our country.

end

FBI Lied To FISA Court After Concealing Carter Page’s CIA Work: Clinesmith Charging Docs

The FBI was aware that Carter Page was a CIA asset months before the agency concealed that fact from the FISA court, which granted permission to spy on the former Trump campaign aide.

After withholding this information during the application and two subsequent renewals, top FBI attorney Kevin Clinesmith altered documents to specifically say Page wasn’t a CIA source during a third warrant renewal, according to a 5-age federal charging document reviewed by The Federalist.

Clinesmith agreed to plead guilty to altering an email which helped justify surveillance of Page to specifically deny that Page was an “operational contact” for the CIA – helping the agency investigate suspected Russian intelligence figures for five years.

The world learned of Clinesmith’s crime after Inspector General Michael Horowitz issued a criminal referral following his 434-page report on FBI malfeasance during and after the 2016 US election.

As The Federalist notes, the MSM was hard at work spinning Clinesmith’s guilty plea to suggest that there was “no evidence of a broad anti-Trump conspiracy among law enforcement officials.”

Au contraire…

In fact, contrary to the unsubstantiated assertion from the Times, the charging documents highlight that all four of the applications to spy on Carter Page painted a false picture of the Trump affiliate. While the fourth application included outright falsified evidence regarding Page helping the CIA during the relevant time period, the other three withheld that information even though it was known to the Crossfire Hurricane team within days of opening an investigation on the Trump campaign and months before the first application to spy on Carter Page was granted. –The Federalist

And so, while the Times tries to suggest that Clinesmith was some sort of rogue employee who took it upon himself to ensure the FBI got their spy warrants, IG Horowitz’s report reveals that this framing is absurd.

“We found that, although this information [of Page’s cooperation with the CIA] was highly relevant to the FISA application, the Crossfire Hurricane team did not engage with the other agency regarding this information,” wrote Horowitz, adding that the “factual basis supporting probable cause” to spy on Page relied upon Page’s contacts with known Russian intelligence officers – which he conducted from under the umbrella of the CIA.

The other key evidence the FBI used to support their warrant applications is the debunked Steele dossier, which the Federalist describes as “a collection of drunken brainstorming and unsubstantiated gossip that was used as part of an anti-Trump operation of the Hillary Clinton campaign.”

In other words, the FBI had nothing on Page so they simply lied.

Page, a Naval Academy graduate who was accused in the media of sedition against his country, had candidly discussed those contacts with an FBI asset and the CIA had told the Crossfire Hurricane team that on August 17, 2016. Horowitz listed this failure to inform the spy court of these facts that undermined their probable cause claim as the first of 17 major omissions and errors that corrupted the FBI’s spying on the Trump campaign.

The Justice Department already admitted that two of the application renewals were illicit. Informed observers speculate the first application and first renewal to spy on the Trump ally may suffer the same fate. Durham’s charging document, along with the exhaustive IG report, show that Clinesmith’s deception was part of a broader conspiracy against Page. –The Federalist

Beyond Clinesmith

Also noted by The Federalist is the fact that Horowitz highlighted the errors of many other agents – including “Case Agent 1,” which is believed to be agent Steven Somma.

“Case Agent 1 was primarily responsible for some of the most significant errors and omissions in the FISA applications,” the IG report continues – noting Somma’s mischaracterization of Steele’s prior reporting as credible – as well as omitting the fact that Steele’s claim of a “well-developed conspiracy of cooperation between Trump and Russia” were contradicted by statements made by another former Trump campaign aide, George Papadopoulos. Somma also excluded the fact that Steele’s claim that Page met with Russian businessman Igor Sechin and Russian official Igor Divyekin were disputed.

Read the rest of the report here.

end

Snowden is in trouble for being a whistleblower that the USA was using illegal surveillance on USA citizens.  Trump will no doubt pardon Snowden

(zerohedge)

 

Trump To Pardon Edward Snowden? 

In surprising comments during an interview with the New York Post this week, President Trump mused: “There are a lot of people that think that he is not being treated fairly. I mean, I hear that.”

He added: “Many people are on his side, I will say that. I don’t know him, never met him. But many people are on his side.”

The comments, published in the Post Thursday, have unleashed widespread speculation that Trump could actually pardon whistleblower Edward Snowden at a moment political momentum is gaining from Republican-Libertarian voices in Congress.

 

Edward Snowden speaking at a surveillance and tech conference, via The Week.

Suggesting something is already in the waters, Kentucky congressman Thomas Massie (R) called out Trump on Friday, tweeting simply, “Donald Trump should pardon Edward Snowden,” while tagging both.

And Libertarian/Independent Congressman Justin Amash of Michigan tweeted in support for such a bold move from the president as well:

In the NY Post interview Trump was discussing his former advisor Carter Page in connection with allegations of abuse and illegal surveillance under the aegis of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and the secret FISA court.

“Snowden is one of the people they talk about. They talk about numerous people, but he is certainly one of the people that they do talk about,” Trump said.

He then reportedly questioned of his aides nearby:

“I guess the DOJ is looking to extradite him right now? … It’s certainly something I could look at. Many people are on his side, I will say that. I don’t know him, never met him. But many people are on his side.”

The 37-year old Snowden has been living in Russia since leaking a huge trove of NSA documents in 2013. He first went to Hong Kong but then stopped in Russia while being pursued by US authorities, which he’s previously said was not his intended destination. He’s since been enjoying temporary asylum under Putin.

Trump’s comments immediately raised eyebrows especially given he’s previously been on record as calling Snowden a “traitor”.

Should a pardon actually materialize, it could certainly energize Trump’s conservative anti-establishment base ahead of November, and on the other hand alienate further that very establishment in Washington.

The pressure would also then be on to pardon Julian Assange, though that would most certainly be met with even fiercer pushback from the US intelligence community.

Republican hawks, but most certainly Democrats eager to revive the Russiagate narrative going into the November election, would offer it as “proof” that Trump is somehow in cahoots the Russians (given longstanding accusations – though without evidence – that Snowden intentionally ended up in Russia where he’s cooperating with foreign intelligence).

end

It was the CIA that was behind Guccifer and Russiagate: so says William Binney

the explanation below:

(Strategic Culture Foundation)

CIA Behind Guccifer & Russiagate – A Plausible Scenario

Via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

William Binney is the former technical director of the U.S. National Security Agency who worked at the agency for 30 years. He is a respected independent critic of how American intelligence services abuse their powers to illegally spy on private communications of U.S. citizens and around the globe.

Given his expert inside knowledge, it is worth paying attention to what Binney says.

In a media interview this week, he dismissed the so-called Russiagate scandal as a “fabrication” orchestrated by the American Central Intelligence Agency. Many other observers have come to the same conclusion about allegations that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. elections with the objective of helping Donald Trump get elected.

But what is particularly valuable about Binney’s judgment is that he cites technical analysis disproving the Russiagate narrative. That narrative remains dominant among U.S. intelligence officials, politicians and pundits, especially those affiliated with the Democrat party, as well as large sections of Western media. The premise of the narrative is the allegation that a Russian state-backed cyber operation hacked into the database and emails of the Democrat party back in 2016. The information perceived as damaging to presidential candidate Hillary Clinton was subsequently disseminated to the Wikileaks whistleblower site and other U.S. media outlets.

A mysterious cyber persona known as “Guccifer 2.0” claimed to be the alleged hacker. U.S. intelligence and news media have attributed Guccifer as a front for Russian cyber operations.

Notably, however, the Russian government has always categorically denied any involvement in alleged hacking or other interference in the 2016 U.S. election, or elections thereafter.

William Binney and other independent former U.S. intelligence experts say they can prove the Russiagate narrative is bogus. The proof relies on their forensic analysis of the data released by Guccifer. The analysis of timestamps demonstrates that the download of voluminous data could not have been physically possible based on known standard internet speeds. These independent experts conclude that the data from the Democrat party could not have been hacked, as Guccifer and Russiagaters claim. It could only have been obtained by a leak from inside the party, perhaps by a disgruntled staffer who downloaded the information on to a disc. That is the only feasible way such a huge amount of data could have been released. That means the “Russian hacker” claims are baseless.

Wikileaks, whose founder Julian Assange is currently imprisoned in Britain pending an extradition trial to the U.S. to face espionage charges, has consistently maintained that their source of files was not a hacker, nor did they collude with Russian intelligence. As a matter of principle, Wikileaks does not disclose the identity of its sources, but the organization has indicated it was an insider leak which provided the information on senior Democrat party corruption.

William Binney says forensic analysis of the files released by Guccifer shows that the mystery hacker deliberately inserted digital “fingerprints” in order to give the impression that the files came from Russian sources. It is known from information later disclosed by former NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden that the CIA has a secretive program – Vault 7 – which is dedicated to false incrimination of cyber attacks to other actors. It seems that the purpose of Guccifer was to create the perception of a connection between Wikileaks and Russian intelligence in order to beef up the Russiagate narrative.

“So that suggested [to] us all the evidence was pointing back to CIA as the originator [of] Guccifer 2.0. And that Guccifer 2.0 was inside CIA… I’m pointing to that group as the group that was probably the originator of Guccifer 2.0 and also this fabrication of the entire story of Russiagate,” concludes Binney in his interview with Sputnik news outlet.

This is not the first time that the Russiagate yarn has been debunked. But it is crucially important to make Binney’s expert views more widely appreciated especially as the U.S. presidential election looms on November 3. As that date approaches, U.S. intelligence and media seem to be intensifying claims about Russian interference and cyber operations. Such wild and unsubstantiated “reports” always refer to the alleged 2016 “hack” of the Democrat party by “Guccifer 2.0” as if it were indisputable evidence of Russian interference and the “original sin” of supposed Kremlin malign activity. The unsubstantiated 2016 “hack” is continually cited as the “precedent” and “provenance” of more recent “reports” that purport to claim Russian interference.

Given the torrent of Russiagate derivatives expected in this U.S. election cycle, which is damaging U.S.-Russia bilateral relations and recklessly winding up geopolitical tensions, it is thus of paramount importance to listen to the conclusions of honorable experts like William Binney.

The American public are being played by their own intelligence agencies and corporate media with covert agendas that are deeply anti-democratic.

end

49 People Shot In Last 72 Hours In New York As City Hits Its “Expiration Date”

The gentrified New York City that made the Big Apple the envy of billionaires, oligarchs, child molesters and money laundering criminals from around the world is no more, and in its place is the hellish New York from the 1970s.

According to Gothamist, between Thursday and Saturday, 49 people were shot in the largest city in the United States, as the uptick in gun violence continues this summer and is rushing to catch up with that other progressive paradise, Chicago.

Putting the surge in context, the number of people shot over the three days is five times more than the eight who were shot during the same days last year according to the Washington ExaminerWhile most of the shooting victims were merely wounded, at least six people were killed by gunshot wounds over the 3-day interval, compared to three homicides that took place during the same time last year.

Year to date, there have been 1,087 shooting victims so far in 888 different incidents throughout the city, roughly double the crime observed in 2019. Last year at this time, there had been 577 shooting victims in 488 incidents in New York City.

Among those murdered was an off-duty corrections officer who worked at Rikers Island. John Jeff, 28, had just left a party in Queens at 3 a.m. on Saturday morning when he was shot in the head and chest.

“Early this morning, the Correction Officers’ Benevolent Association was notified that New York City Correction Officer John Jeff, assigned to the Anna M. Kross Center on Rikers Island, was found dead in South Jamaica Queens. He sustained multiple gunshot wounds. He was 28 years old and was on the job for just over two years with his whole life and career ahead of him. He was well-liked and highly regarded by his fellow officers,” Correction Officers Benevolent Association President Benny Boscio Jr. said in a statement.

Neighbors reported hearing multiple gunshots outside their homes, and sources told ABC 7 the killing appeared to be planned.

“I heard nine shots,” resident Raymond Leslie said. “You really don’t want to come out on these streets at night because it’s getting increasingly dangerous.”

Mayor Bill de Blasio, whose actions – or lack thereof – have been blamed by many for triggering a historic exodus among New York residents, denounced the shooting tweeting, “This is a tragedy.”

“Chirlane and I are keeping this young man’s family, loved ones and brothers and sisters in @CorrectionNYC in our hearts today. An investigation into this cowardly attack is ongoing. If you have any information please contact the NYPD,” the mayor tweeted.

The scale of New York’s shooting problem becomes apparent when one considers that just the start of this month marked more shootings in New York City so far this year than in all of 2019, a continuation of the violent protests, rioting and looting that was unleashed in New York in recent months.

As the Washington Examiner notes, “protests, riots, and vandalism sparked by the death of George Floyd have increased the anti-police sentiment in the city at a time when de Blasio has pledged to strip $1 billion from the city’s police budget and disbanded the plainclothes anti-crime unitHundreds of police officers have filed their retirement papers in recent weeks as tensions between the force and the public become more strained by the increase in crime.

Meanwhile, as we reported last week, Thousands of New Yorkers have been fleeing the city in recent weeks, citing the uptick in violence as well as coronavirus restrictions.

“We reached our New York expiration date,” one New York City mother recently told the New York Post. “Things weren’t heading in the right direction. What we’re seeing now isn’t at all surprising.”

Meanwhile, as people packed their bags one last time for New Jersey, the Hamptons, and other local areas, Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo pleaded that they return to the city, even offering to cook them dinner.

“I literally talk to people all day long who are now in their Hamptons house who also lived here, or in their Hudson Valley house or in their Connecticut weekend house, and I say, ‘You got to come back, when are you coming back?’” Cuomo said earlier this month. “‘We’ll go to dinner, I’ll buy you a drink, come over, I’ll cook.’”

Unfortunately, since he can no longer even assure them that they won’t be murdered in broad daylight, we doubt anyone will care much for Cuomo’s desperate platitudes.

end

The Pit bull is next on the list.  He is scared out of his mind!

Mueller Aide Weissmann Urges DOJ Attorneys ‘Not’ To Help On Investigations

(Jonathan Turley)

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

recently wrote a column discussing how Democratic leaders, including Vice President Joe Biden, have argued against continuing the investigation by U.S. Attorney John Durham despite growing evidence of misconduct by Justice Department officials and now the first guilty plea by former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith.

Now, Andrew Weissmann, one of the top prosecutors with Special Counsel Robert Mueller, has derided the Clinesmith plea while actually calling on Justice Department attorneys to refuse to help on ongoing investigations that could implicate aspects of his own prior work.

I was among those who expressed concern when Mueller selected Weissmann due to his history of controversial prosecutorial decisions, including a pattern of prosecutorial overreach in the Enron litigation.

Weissmann’s recent statements (made before the release of his new book on the Russian investigation) have only served to reaffirm those concerns.

Recently, Weissmann wrote an extraordinary and disturbing New York Times op-ed (with former Defense Department special counsel Ryan Goodman). In the column, he appeared to call on Justice Department lawyers to undermine the Durham investigation as well as the investigation by U.S. Attorney John Bash’s investigation into the “unmasking” requests by Obama administration officials. They wrote Justice Department employees in meeting their ethical and legal obligations, should be well advised not to participate in any such effort.”

Consider that line for a moment…

Weissmann is openly calling on attorneys to refuse to help on investigations that could raise questions about his own decisions.  Durham is looking at a pattern errors, false statements, bias, and now criminal conduct in the Russian investigation. There is obviously overlap with the Mueller investigation which discussed many of the same underlying documents and relied on work by some of the same individuals.  The failure to address misconduct, bias, or criminal conduct by such individuals would be embarrassing to both Weissmann and Mueller. Despite that obvious conflict of interest, Weissmann is calling on attorneys to stand down.

It is the same troubling position that was once taken by Sally Yates, who told an entire federal agency not to assist the President in his travel ban.

After Weissmann called on Justice Department attorneys not to assist investigations by the Justice Department, Durham disclosed that the first guilty plea would be entered by Clinesmith. That would ordinarily cause embarrassment for someone who was calling for DOJ lawyers to effectively hinder the investigation.  Not Weissmann.  He has now attacked the criminal plea.

Weissmann mocked Attorney General Bill Barr to explain the difference between the Flynn plea and the Clinesmith plea.

Weissmann tweeted:

“Question for Barr: how are Flynn’s confessed lies to the FBI (repeated to the VP) not a crime, but Clinesmith changing an email (the full version of which he also sent to DOJ) is?

Clinesmith is charged with adding the words ‘not a source’ to an email about Carter Page, but no where does the charge say that is false, i.e. that Page was a source for the CIA. Without that, how is the addition ‘materially’ false?”

Here is Durham theory: even though Clinesmith gave the complete and accurate email to DOJ to use in the Page FISA, when asked by an FBI agent if the CIA had represented IN WRITING that Page was not a source, Clinesmith said yes, when CIA had not said so explicitly in writing. no where is it alleged that Page was in fact a CIA source or, if so, that Clinesmith knew that. How is any of this false or material to the Page FISA, using Barr’s new Flynn materiality standard. It’s not. Two systems of justice at play.”

“Clear from Durham charge that the FBI supervisor wanted to know if CIA confirmed “in writing” that Page was not a source because of distrust of CIA — but whether in writing or not, no allegation that Clinesmith lied about the fact Page was not a source. That’s a federal crime?”

The tweets reveal more about Weissmann than Clinesmith or this guilty plea.

First, Weissmann is completely distorting both the law and the facts to disregard the significance of this guilty plea. The fact that Page was a source for the CIA is not disputed. The Horowitz investigation and various congressional investigations have confirmed that the CIA made clear to Clinesmith that Page was working for United States intelligence, a fact that critically undermined the basis for the original application for secret surveillance. The statement that “no where does the charge say that is false, i.e. that Page was a source for the CIA” is bizarre. The charge is that Clinesmith made this false statement to the court and there is a wealth of evidence to support that charge. It was clearly enough to prompt Clinesmith to take a plea and enter into what appears a cooperative agreement with prosecutors.

Second, the claim that “Clinesmith gave the complete and accurate email to DOJ” would not negate the charge. It was the false information that he gave to the court that mattered. Prosecutorial misconduct often involves telling courts something different from what is known or discussed by prosecutors.  Moreover, the implications of such a contrast adds to the need for the investigation that Weissmann has sought to hinder.  If other DOJ attorneys and investigators knew that the court was being given false material information, the concerns are magnified not reduced for the Durham investigation.  Indeed, it means that this investigation dragged on for many months despite other attorneys knowing that the original claims of Page being a Russian assets were directly contradicted by American intelligence and never disclosed to the Court.

What is astonishing is that the FISA court itself as well as Horowitz have flagged this as a serious matter of false or misleading information. Weissmann however is actively seeking to convince Justice Department lawyers to refuse to help on the investigation.

Weissmann also misrepresents the law and the position of the Justice Department in Flynn.  I have been one of the most vocal critics of the plea.  It is true that Flynn gave false answers to the investigators.  However, he fought the allegations until the Mueller team drained him of his savings and threatened to prosecute his son.

Keep in mind that Flynn was the incoming National Security Adviser and held entirely lawful discussions with Russian diplomats. Even James Comey told President Obama that the discussions were “legit.” Moreover, in December 2016, investigators had found no evidence of any crime by Flynn. They wanted to shut down the investigation; they were overruled by superiors, including FBI special agent Peter Strzok, Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and Director James Comey. Strzok told the investigators to keep the case alive, and McCabe is described as “cutting off” another high-ranking official who questioned the basis for continuing to investigate Flynn. All three officials were later fired, and all three were later found by career officials to have engaged in serious misconduct as part of the Russia investigation. Recently disclosed material indicate that Obama, Biden, and other discussed the use of the Logan Act as a pretense for a criminal charge. The Logan Act criminalizes private negotiations with foreign governments. The Logan Act is widely viewed as unconstitutional and has never been used successfully against any U.S. citizen since the earliest days of the Republic.

Then, in February 2017, Comey circumvented long-standing protocols and ordered an interview with Flynn. Comey later bragged that he “probably wouldn’t have … gotten away with it” in other administrations, but he sent “a couple guys over” to question Flynn, who was settling into his new office as national security adviser. Indeed, Yates recently agreed that Comey “went rogue” on the Flynn matter.

This history is what was detailed to the court in the Flynn motion to dismiss the charge. The materiality point reflected the governing law that indictments require more than mere “relevance” or relatedness but rather a statement that is “reasonably likely to influence the tribunal in making a determination required to be made.” United States v. Weinstock, 231 F.2d 699, 701 (D.C. Cir. 1956) (emphasis added). The distinction with Clinesmith is obvious. Clinesmith lied to the Court in an investigation to influence a “determination required to be made” by the court.

Imagine if this were not the rule. It would mean that any prosecutor could intentionally lie to a court to secure warrants or other actions without the risk of a criminal charge.  Yet, Weissmann is mocking the very notion that Clinesmith could be charged while insisting that his office was correct in prosecuting Flynn despite the absence of an ongoing federal case and the fact that the agents themselves did not believe Flynn intentionally lied. There is no question the Clinesmith lied and that the lie was critical to the court’s consideration of the FISA application.

Weissmann’s public effort to derail the Durham investigation and his distortion of the Clinesmith guilty plea only reinforces the view of many of us that the Durham investigation must be completed and made public. Despite saying that I did not believe that Mueller would find crimes of collusion or conspiracy with the Russians, I supported the Special Counsel investigation. I also supported the Horowitz investigation and the Durham investigation. The reason is the same. I believe that the public needs to have a full and transparent account of what happened in the Russian investigation on both sides. Like many, Weissmann would like transparency on only one side and to shutdown the Durham investigation despite Horowitz referring matters for criminal investigation and finding a host of false statements, errs, and professional misconduct.  Even the addition of a criminal plea has not stopped Weissmann from denouncing this investigation.

For years, I have criticized Weissmann’s record of dubious prosecutorial judgment, bias, and overreach. However, that case against Weissmann is not nearly as powerful as the case he is making against himself.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Coronavirus: European stocks dip on rising infections and UK quarantine rules

Britain announced a 14-day quarantine on travelers arriving from France late on Thursday, after French authorities reported more than 2,500 new daily cases for a second day in a row. It marked a return to infection rates last seen in mid-April during lockdown…

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-stocks-latest-virus-markets-europe-074544666.html

Lockdown Extended in Northwest England as COVID-19 Cases Remain High

“The latest evidence does not show a decrease in the number of cases per 100,000 people in the area, and the Health Secretary, in collaboration with local leaders, has agreed that the rules must remain in place at present,” a government statement said…

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/08/14/world/europe/14reuters-health-coronavirus-britain-lockdown.html

The 2020 San Francisco exodus is real, and historic, report shows

Online real estate company Zillow released new statistics shining a stark light on the issue this week. Their “2020 Urban-Suburban Market Report” reveals that inventory has risen a whopping 96% year-on-year, as empty homes in the city flood the market like nowhere else in America…

https://www.sfgate.com/living-in-sf/article/2020-San-Francisco-exodus-is-real-and-historic-15484785.php

Chicago Property Management Company President Says Residents, Staff Feel Unsafe Amid Crime, Unrest, Demands Action from Mayor – The company represents more than 100 local condominium associations, more than 22,000 homeowners, and about 38,000 residents…     https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/08/12/chicago-property-management-company-president-says-residents-staff-feel-unsafe-amid-crime-unrest-demands-action-from-mayor/

Chicago spent nearly $120 million on 4 coronavirus facilities to treat a total of 38 patients

Just 1.3% of beds at major convention center were ever occupied.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/chicago-spent-nearly-120-million-4-coronavirus-facilities-treat-total

Coronavirus update: U.S. cases trending down as flu and back-to-school seasons loom https://yhoo.it/33VG7CN

Dr. David Samadi @drdavidsamadi: According to the CDC, through the end of July the average number of total deaths in the United States per day was 7,434 this year.  In 2017 there were an average of more than 7,700 deaths per day in the United States.  Where is the major increase in COVID-19 related death?

@OBusybody: @GovPritzker telling folks in IL not to travel to MO and WI, it’s important to know his fear-mongering is not based on facts.  The current deaths/100k are almost identical for all 3 states even though IL has had oppressive lockdown orders in place. [Chart at link]

https://twitter.com/OBusybody/status/1294650898652770306/photo/1

@GrahamNeary: In 2020, the world became convinced that a deadly coronavirus was plaguing the human race.  A virus that could kill nearly 1 out of every 100 people it infected, or so we were told… Remember that in March, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London predicted 510,000 Covid-19 deaths in Britain and 2.2 million Covid-19 deaths in the US. Healthcare systems would be overwhelmed.  This could only be avoided by “non-pharmaceutical interventions” (lockdown, etc.)…

    Finally, for those of you who wear tin foil hats instead of face masks, you’ll appreciate the acknowledgement by Ferguson that he works for the Vaccine Alliance, a pharma company which is now making Covid-19 vaccines, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

CDC: One quarter of young adults contemplated suicide during pandemic

Roughly 30.9 percent of respondents said they had symptoms of anxiety or depression. Roughly 26.3 respondents reported trauma and stress-related disorder because of the pandemic.  Another 13.3 percent of respondents said they have turned to substance use…

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2020/08/13/cdc-one-quarter-of-young-adults-contemplated-suicide-during-pandemic-1308474

On Friday, ex-FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith pled guilty to making a false statement in regard to the FISA warrant application for Carter Page.  This is the first criminal charge arising from U Durham’s review of the investigation Spygate.  This is just the first drop of what should be a deluge of criminal charges.

@ChuckRossDC: FBI agent Steven Somma can’t be feeling too good today.  He withheld info in August 2016 that Carter Page had a CIA relationship. Somma was the guy who first proposed getting a FISA on Page. He was also Stefan Halper’s handler.    https://dailycaller.com/2019/12/12/case-agent-1-fbi-fisa/

3 in 5 parents say remote learning will negatively impact their finances

67 percent of parents with kids between the ages of 5-10 say they anticipate being negatively impacted financially More than 4 in 10 parents surveyed believe remote learning will have a negative impact on their child(ren)’s education… https://www.bankrate.com/surveys/coronavirus-remote-learning-and-finances/

 

On Friday, Trump made the audacious assertion that NY is in play.  If DJT devotes resources to NY, then he might be telling the truth.  If Biden starts spending money in NY, it might be in play.

 

@realDonaldTrump: Just landed in New York to see my brother, Robert. We’re going for New York on November 3rd. We’re going to Reduce Taxes, Increase Law Enforcement, and bring it back BIG TIME!

 

Trump says spike in crime, high taxes could help him win New York in 2020 election

https://nypost.com/2020/08/13/trump-says-were-putting-new-york-in-play-cites-crime-and-taxes/

 

New York City faces business exodus, officials unclear as to full extent of losses: report

Some businesses have seen as much as an 85% reduction in revenue

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-york-city-business-exodus-losses-unclear

 

NY ranked last in nation for economic outlook [by The American Legislative Exchange Council]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-york-last-in-nation-economic-outlook-report

 

Hollywood’s Apocalypse NOW: Rich and famous are fleeing in droves as liberal politics and coronavirus turn City of Dreams into cesspit plagued by junkies and violent criminal

    British-born Danny O’Brien runs Watford Moving & Storage. ‘There is a mass exodus from Hollywood… a lot of it is to do with politics… August has already set records and we are only halfway through the month,’ he tells me.  ‘People are getting out in droves. Last week I moved a prominent person in the music industry from a $6.5 million [£5 million] mansion above Sunset Boulevard to Nashville.’…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8631063/Hollywood-Apocalypse-rich-famous-fleeing-droves.html

 

California wealth tax could become first of its kind in US under new proposal

A group of state lawmakers on Thursday proposed a first-in-the-nation state wealth tax that would hit about 30,400 California residents and raise an estimated $7.5 billion for the general fund.  The tax rate would be 0.4% of net worth, excluding directly held real estate, that exceeds $30 million for single and joint filers and $15 million for married filing separately…

https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/networth/article/California-lawmakers-propose-a-15482011.php

 

NYT’s @ShawnHubler: Will Andersen, an 18-year-old incoming freshman at @UWMadison puts it this way: “Who wants to pay $25,000 a year for glorified Skype?” via @nytimes

 

NYT: As Colleges Move Classes Online, Families Rebel against the Cost- Schools face rising demands for tuition rebates, increased aid and leaves of absence as students ask if college is becoming “glorified Skype.”…  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/15/us/covid-college-tuition.html

 

South Dakota turns down Trump’s $300-a-week unemployment benefits

“South Dakota’s economy, having never been shut down, has recovered nearly 80 percent of our job losses,” she said in a statement.  “[It] is the only state in the nation that didn’t have extended benefits kick in because our insured unemployment rate has been the lowest in the nation,” [Gov.] Noem added.

https://nypost.com/2020/08/16/south-dakota-turns-down-trumps-300-a-week-unemployment-benefits/

 

After the close on Friday, Berkshire’s Q2 13F filing showed Buffett went on another selling spree.  He reduced his JPM position by 61.5% to 22.2m shares and Wells Fargo by 26.5% to 237.5m shares.  He sold all of his 1.9m shares of Goldman Sachs.  Most interestingly, Buffett bought 20.9m shares of Barrick Gold.  For many years, Warren has inveighed against gold!

 

Why Warren Buffet Doesn’t Invest in Gold

Warren Buffett has been very vocal about his disdain for gold as an investment. He sees little to no value in it. What Buffett refers to as a lack of value results from a lack of usefulness. He once stated about gold, “It doesn’t do anything but sit there and look at you.”…

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/021615/does-warren-buffett-invest-gold-why-or-why-not.asp

Basically gold is a way of going along on fear, and it’s been a pretty good way of going along on fear from time to time. But you really have to hope people become more afraid in the year or two years than they are now. And if they become more afraid you make money, if they become less afraid you lose money. But the gold itself doesn’t produce anything.” – Warren Buffett, CNBC interview Wed., March 2, 2011

https://www.cnbc.com/2011/03/02/cnbc-buffett-transcript-part-2-the-zebra-that-got-away.html

 

After pouring into banks after the Crisis on 2008 and eschewing gold for decades, Uncle Warren is now unloading banks and buying gold.  It is obvious what Uncle Warren thinks is coming!

 

British trade minister pledges to fight ‘unfair’ US tariffs [on Scotch whiskey…]

https://nypost.com/2020/08/16/british-trade-minister-pledges-to-fight-unfair-us-tariffs/

 

Shipping Costs Soar [Highest level since 2015]

https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/blog/2020/08/16/shipping-costs-soar-file-under-not-deflationary/

 

USPS announces temporary price increase – The United States Postal Service is planning for a temporary price increase that will go into effect from Oct. 18 to Dec. 27. The price increase is due to the high demand for online items.  Package shipments will see a rate increase anywhere from 24 cents to as much as $1.50…   https://www.kbtx.com/2020/08/15/usps-announces-temporary-price-increase/

@yosefyisrael25: Oman and Bahrain to follow UAE in normalizing Israel ties: American official tells Palestinian newspaper Al-Quds

@bennyjohnson: President Trump reacts to Joe Biden trying to take credit for the Israel/UAE Peace Deal: Biden “doesn’t even know the name of the countries I’m talking about.”

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1294333424342388736

Biden’s team hasn’t booked any air travel… [Team Joe will continue to hide and shield Biden.]

https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-plane-31461abc-9c4d-47c7-bcac-d3aa5c4cd475.html

Gallup: 52% of Democrats/leaners wish someone else were their nominee [25% of GOP someone else]

42% of Americans view Trump favorably; 47% view Biden favorably

https://news.gallup.com/poll/317474/say-neither-candidate-good-president.aspx

@PpollingNumbers: NEW @CNN National Poll: Biden/Harris 50%, Trump/Pence 46%, a 10 point shift towards Trump in a month [CNN changed its sample to Dems+4 from Dems+7.  One current polling scam: Some polls are 37% minority when 27% of 2016 voters were minority.]

@bennyjohnson: No questions for Biden and Harris again [on Friday].

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1294319934365995008

NYT: Private Democratic polling and focus groups found that voters were keenly aware of Mr. Biden’s advanced age, and the possibility that his running mate could become president by medical rather than electoral means…  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/13/us/politics/biden-harris.html

@ByronYork: For a moment a year ago, Kamala Harris led the Democratic primary race in her home state of California. It didn’t last long — she is the yellow line on the graph.   https://t.co/T1d6c6TZ8S

WSJ’s @KimStrassel: WaPo in Dec: Dropout Harris was an “uneven campaigner” engulfed by “internal turmoil” and “unable to provide a clear message.” Today: a “vibrant and energetic” campaigner, and “vessel for Democratic hopes.”

Kamala Harris’s First Campaign – A few months ago, Democrats scorned her for her botched presidential run.  This is the same woman the media and Democrats rightly skewered in 2019 for running one of the most bungled and disorganized presidential campaigns this cycle… In a poll this week by the Economist/YouGov, Ms. Harris was viewed favorably by only half of African-Americans and very favorably by only 26% of liberals. Will that keep people from pulling a Biden-Harris lever? Maybe not, but she won’t likely be a poll driver…  https://wsj.com/articles/kamala-harriss-first-campaign-11597360619

@TrumpWarRoom: Kamala Harris jokes about killing President Trump and Mike Pencehttps://t.co/nFZP9yfxNU

Rasmussen Poll: non-white or black 55% (Hispanic & Asian) have unfavorable view of Kamala Harris;

36% of blacks have unfavorable view of her

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1294729578863370242/photo/1

Turkey slams Biden’s past call for U.S. to back Erdogan opponents

Biden’s comments to New York Times editors resurfaced in a video that made him the most popular topic on Twitter in Turkey, where Erdogan has governed for 17 years and has good relations with U.S. President Donald Trump…“What I think we should be doing is taking a very different approach to him now, making it clear that we support opposition leadership,” Biden said in the video and verified by a transcript published in January by the Times… “He has to pay a price,” Biden said at the time, adding Washington should embolden Turkish opposition leaders “to be able to take on and defeat Erdogan. Not by a coup, not by a coup, but by the electoral process.”… https://reut.rs/3g2942v

Did Team Obama leak the following negative items on Biden to left-leaning Politico?

‘The President Was Not Encouraging’: What Obama Really Thought About Biden

Many senior aides, sometimes tacitly encouraged by the president’s behavior, dismissed Biden as eccentric and a practitioner of an old, outmoded style of politics… Young White House aides frequently mocked Biden’s gaffes and lack of discipline in comparison to the almost clerical Obama…

    Biden’s tendency to blurt out whatever was on his mind rankled Obama, who wasn’t afraid to needle him for it… “With Biden in the race, our support among African Americans drops by 23 points,” an internal Clinton memo noted ominously… One Democrat who spoke to Obama recalled the former president warning, “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f&*^ things up.”… https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/14/obama-biden-relationship-393570

Trump says he will ‘take a look’ at pardon for Edward Snowden

Snowden’s revelations [2013] of the extent of American communications surveillance caused a major domestic and international scandal …

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-says-he-will-take-a-look-at-pardon-for-edward-snowden/ar-BB180o33

DJT effectively warned Deep Staters that were involved in illegal surveillance before he came into power that Snowden, who has already blown the whistle on the surveillance state, could soon be naming names.

Barr slams Dems for ‘grossly irresponsible’ mail ballot push, failed schools

“People talk about implicit racism or systemic racism… look no further than our public education system,” Barr said… “That’s a racist system maintained by the Democratic Party and the teachers union, keeping inner city kids in failing schools instead of putting the resources in the hands of the parents to choose the schools to send their kids to. That’s empowering kids, that’s giving them a future.”

    “It is grossly irresponsible to be doing what the Democratic Party is doing now,” he said. “We’ve had very close races in recent history, the country is divided. If anything we should be assuring the integrity of our elections so that government going forward will be legitimate and will be accepted as legitimate. The idea of conducting elections by wholesale mail-in ballots is reckless and wrong.”…

https://justthenews.com/government/ag-barr-excoriates-dems-and-union-perpetuating-racist-education-system-lacking-school

Obama: “UPS and FedEx are doing just fine… It’s the post office that’s always had the problems.”

Town hall on August 12, 2009  https://twitter.com/ChrisStigall/status/1295084574784081920

With the Durham indictments and plea deals commencing, Pelosi et al are trying to divert attention by creating new hysteria over the USPS, which has been dysfunctional for decades.

@jsolomonReports: Pelosi summons House back to vote on postal service, mail-in ballot concerns

https://justthenews.com/government/congress/pelosi-summons-house-back-vote-postal-service-mail-ballot-concerns

@ChadPergram: Pelosi: To save the Postal Service, I am also calling upon Members to participate in a Day of Action on Tuesday by appearing at a Post Office in their districts for a press event. In a time of a pandemic, the Postal Service is Election Central. [If you can protest, why the need for mail-in voting?]

Pelosi is despicably and shamelessly trying to foster hysteria over the plight of the USPS by stating Social Security checks won’t be delivered – even thougObama ended the USPS delivery of Social Security checks 10 years ago!   https://twitter.com/mattdizwhitlock/status/1295126140231782403

Social Security Administration: …a new law went into effect March 1, 2013, requiring that you receive your payments electronically… [Will the MSM call Pelosi on her abject lying?]  https://www.ssa.gov/deposit/

@WSJ @WSJOpinion: The post office is meant to be self-sufficient, but it hasn’t broken even for years. Democrats cry sabotage, but it’s a Blockbuster service in a Netflix world.

WSJ Editorial Board: The Post Office’s Problem Isn’t Trump

Democrats cry sabotage. But mail volume is way down, and the USPS is losing billions of dollars.

Total losses since 2007 run to $78 billion, according to… the Government Accountability Office, which said that the “USPS’s current business model is not financially sustainable.” It’s a Blockbuster service in a Netflix world…  https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-post-offices-problem-isnt-trump-11597360885?mod=e2tw

WaPo (misleading headline because it’s the Dems not the House): House accelerates oversight of Postal Service as uproar grows, demanding top officials testify at hearing

Donald Trump keeps blasting ‘universal’ mail voting. But few states are planning that in November

But only nine states… plan to hold universal mail-in elections… only one of the nine states, Nevada, is considered a battleground… https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3333957001

 

The Manufactured Hysteria over Mail Delivery – Trump is being accused of sabotaging the November elections because he won’t give the postal unions and incompetent managers in the postal service $25 billion… https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2020/08/16/the-manufactured-hysteria-over-mail-delivery-n797737

With DJT’s poll rebound and Covid hysteria over, Dems are concocting another conspiracy theory to tarnish DJT: the risible claim that DJT is “sabotaging” the US Post Office.  Dems and the MSM want mail-in voting, mostly to keep control of the House.  By asserting DJT is sabotaging the US Post Office to halt mail-in votes, they are promoting another Russia Collusion-like hoax to undermine Trump if he wins. Lastly, the USPS union is Dem stronghold.  Dems want more money for their constituents.

GOP @RepJimBanks: The made up post office controversy is merely the Democrats setting up a narrative to continue their dangerous game of undermining the legitimacy of our elections as they anticipate another Trump win in November.

@VicToensing: Reporters @washingtonpost don’t know difference between absentee and mail-in(mail-out) voting.  Absentees request ballot & verify voter registration.  Mail out means govt mails ballots to everyone on voter list. Many have died or moved. Yet ballot can be used to vote

GOP Rep @MarkMeadows: It is NONSENSE to say @realDonaldTrump is undercutting the Postal Service. I know. I oversaw USPS in Congress on the Oversight Committee. It was a mismanaged wreck during the Obama administration—they’ve lost billions for a decade had issues long before this President.   President Trump has already offered $10 billion to fix Postal as part of a COVID relief package. Democrats have said no. They’re holding up a relief bill (including stimulus checks and small business relief) until they get more of their policy wish list demands included.

Saturday on MSNBC, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) called on President Donald Trump to be removed from office by applying the 25th Amendment. [If Dems are sure Biden will win, why did Waters clamor DJT’s removal?]  https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020/08/16/maxine-waters-use-25th-amendment-to-remove-trump-from-office/

@paulsperry_: At the time of his crime, FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith had been assigned to Special Counsel Mueller’s team, which explains why Mueller’s chief prosecutor Andrew Weissmann has taken such an extreme interest in defending Clinesmith on Twitter & bashing Durham/Barr in media

Ex-fed prosecutor @WisenbergSol: We should pay special attention to  @AWeissmann’s tweets over the next few weeks as he pontificates on the Durham Probe and tries his best to smear Durham. Durham, a career fed. prosecutor, has an excellent reputation within the defense bar as a non-partisan, straight shooter… Not true of Weissmann. He was widely loathed and publicly criticized, for his sharp tactics and egregious, over-zealous methods . It takes a lot for a federal judge to call you out by name for “reprehensible” and “myopic” withholding of exculpatory materials from the defense… So what is actually happening here? Weissmann and his buddies are well aware of Durham’s straight-shooter reputation and they are apparently worried… Worried about what Durham will find and reveal about Crossfire Hurricane and FISA abuse--beyond what IG Horowitz has already discovered… Durham has far more investigatory power and authority than Horowitz did. So it is imperative now for AW to smear Durham… What is AW afraid of and why?…

Seattle BLM protesters demand white people ‘give up their homes’  https://trib.al/1ERHkh4

@TomFitton: An utterly despicable headline and report on the death of the President’s brother by the leftists at the @WashingtonPost: Robert Trump, younger brother of President Trump who filed lawsuit against niece, dies at 71  https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/robert-trump-younger-brother-of-president-trump-who-filed-lawsuit-against-niece-dies-at-71/2020/08/15/6ec0f102-de62-11ea-8051-d5f887d73381_story.html

A much-needed boost for the spirit: GI dad surprises his son

https://twitter.com/lookatDworld/status/1294300731542044672

end

Let us close out tonight with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter interviewing David Morgan

 

The Great Silver Crisis is Coming – David Morgan

By Greg Hunter On August 15, 2020

Precious metals expert and financial writer David Morgan says, “There is a lot of buying pressure in the silver market right now and for gold as well.”  Morgan points out that even more buying pressure from the industrial side of the market could catapult demand and price.  Morgan says, “We are probably entering into what I call ‘The Great Silver Crisis.’  ‘The Great Silver Crisis’ really is verified when the commercial bar category is bought for industrial use, and they panic. So, when Apple says we can’t make the 5G phone because it’s going to take silver and it’s on back order, and it will take two months to get it, they’ll have to shut down the production line.  That spills over into the electric vehicle market and spills over into a lot of electronic manufacturing.  When that happens, the industrial side, which is 60% of the market, panics into buying silver and has to warehouse it because they are afraid they are going to run out because without silver, it would put them out of business.  That would be ‘The Great Silver Crisis’. . . . We are not that close yet, but we are getting closer.”

On the financial end of the market for precious metals, it look dire.  People are getting scared.  Morgan says, “We are at a point now where they are printing so much money that people are trusting the currency less and less and less.  It becomes worth less and worth less, and then it becomes worthless.  We seem to be going to worthlessness.   That’s when you will see greater demand than we are already seeing.  We are seeing the precursor to what happens.  We are in the third leg up in a bull market.  The third leg in any market is the most substantial increase. . .”

Morgan points out that inflation is much more extreme than most people realize.  Morgan explains, “If you look at the metrics that we used in 1980 where food and energy, the two things humans need most to survive, were not taken out of the CPI (consumer price index) and they left that in, and we went with the same calculation, which is far more honest that the calculation we have now, it’s a simple math problem, and $50 silver in 1980 is $600 right now.  The $50 that silver hit in 2011 really didn’t buy you anything, and certainly not what it would have bought you in 1980.”

In closing, Morgan says, “A bull market is very much like riding a bull that will buck to try to get that rider off its back.  You will see these huge moves down like we saw this past week, 15% in one day, that will take weak hands off the bull, and they are never going to get back on it.  The main function as an investor is to hang on to that bull all the way up to near the top of the market, and then take a profit or whatever.  So, be prepared folks.  Bull markets go up and down, and you are going to see some real scary moves up and down.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with David Morgan, publisher of “The Morgan Report.”

-END-

Well that is all for today

I will see you TUESDAY night.

3 comments

  1. […] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

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  2. […] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

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