AUGUST 25//GOLD DOWN $14.60 TO $1918.10//SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TO $26.24//GOLD STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX: 152.2 TONNES//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE–SWEDEN/GLOBE///CHINA VS USA (HUAWEI)//POWELL SIGNALS INFLATION TARGETING WITH HIS JACKSON HOLE SPEECH ON THURSDAY//USA CONFIDENCE PLUNGES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD:$1918.10  DOWN $14.60   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$26.24 DOWN $0.21`   London spot price ( cash market)

 

Today marks the 8TH day out of the last 11 days that a raid has been orchestrated by the bankers..

Wednesday is options expiry on the Comex.  The raid today basically failed on the Powell announcement of unchecked inflation to be introduced at Jackson Hole Wy.

Monday is options expiry OTC /London LBMA 10 am.

 

DEFINITION OF INSANITY:

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” That witticism—I’ll call it “Einstein Insanity”—is usually attributed to Albert Einstein.Sep 23, 2015
fits perfectly here with respect to official sector/banker raids

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Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1928.20  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $26.52//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

AUGUST GOLD:   $1912.00  CLOSE  1::30 PM  SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE AUG  (BACKWARD  $6.10//) SCARCITY

OCT GOLD:  $1913.80  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /:   : $4.30//BACKWARD/SCARCITY

 

 

DEC. GOLD  $1923.50   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $5.40/ CONTANGO   ($6.60 BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $26.31…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 7 cent contango//4 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL contango)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $27.77  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       : 22  CENTS PER OZ  ( 12 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today: 0/7

issued 7

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,927.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/24/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 08/26/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
135 H RAND 3
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 5
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 1
686 C INTL FCSTONE 1 1
690 C ABN AMRO 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 7 7
MONTH TO DATE: 48,785

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  AUGUST CONTRACT: 7 NOTICE(S) FOR 700 OZ  (0.02177 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  48,785 NOTICES FOR 4,877,850 OZ + 2400 oz enhanced standing  =  48809 notices  or 4880900 oz  (151.816 tonnes

 

 

SILVER

 

 

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1279 for 6.395 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $11,7617  DOWN 132

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $11,289 DOWN 461

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/// //

 

 

 

 

GLD: 1,252.38 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

 

A HUGE CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/// A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

 

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 571.074  MILLION OZ./

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2370 CONTRACTS FROM 191,091 DOWN TO 188721, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE CONSIDERABLE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR 18 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF OUR SILVER SPREADER LIQUIDATION, TINY  BANKER SHORT COVERING (IF ANY) COUPLED AGAINST A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE, ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN SILVER OZ. STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR AUGUST.  WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2083 CONTRACTS WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LOSS DUE TO THE SPREADER LIQUIDATION  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

 

 

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A HUGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:   SEP 172 DEC:  115 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  287 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 995 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 287 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 1.435 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 18 CENT LOSS  IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.460 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL 18 CENTS ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS  WERE BASICALLY UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR POSITIONS AS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS IN SILVER. THEY  ENGAGED IN MINOR BANKER SHORT COVERING (IF ANY) ON THE TWO EXCHANGES, THEY COULD NOT COVER MUCH… THUS: THE CONSIDERABLE SIZED LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS ACCOMPANIED BY : i)COMMENCEMENT OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION ii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL DECREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING  FOR AUGUST,  MINOR  BANKER SHORT COVERING (IF ANY)  AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS  WE DID HAVE A CONSIDERABLE  NET LOSS OF 2083 CONTRACTS OR 10.415 MILLION OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES! YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..AND THUS THE REASON FOR OUR MASSIVE RAID THIS MORNING AND ALL LAST WEEK

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT FOR SILVER:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF AUGUST. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

AUGUST

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF AUGUST:

17,716 CONTRACTS (FOR 18 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 17,716 CONTRACTS) OR 88.580 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 984 CONTRACTS OR 4.9211 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF AUGUST: 88.580 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 12.65% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,358.87 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EXP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EXP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EXP                         88.580  MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

 

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2370, WITH OUR  18 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAY AS ONE A NET BASIS, NOBODY LEFT THE SILVER ARENA..…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 287 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER

 

TODAY WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2083 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  18 CENT FALL IN PRICE)//

ALMOST ALL OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 287 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE OF 2370 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 18 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $26.57 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.9460 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 135% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW AUGUST  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

.

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 86.470 million oz//AUGUST 6.460 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR  SIZED 1539 CONTRACTS TO 551,649 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  LOSS IN PRICE  OF $7.20 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY//WE HAD MINIMAL BANKER SHORT COVERING(IF ANY), A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR AUGUST, ALONG WITH ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANYING A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF $7.20. 

 

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  134//  (2400 OZ WAS DELIVERED ON FRIDAY FROM THE ENHANCED GOLD INVENTORY)…

 

WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 2749 CONTRACTS  (8.55 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1210 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .; AUG 0 AND OCT: 500 DEC: 710; JUNE: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1210.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 551,649. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2749 CONTRACTS: 1539 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1210 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 2749 CONTRACTS OR 8.55 TONNES. MONDAY, WE HAD A  LOSS OF $7.20 IN GOLD TRADING……

AND WITH THAT LOSS IN  PRICE, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN  TOTAL/TWO EXCHANGES GOLD TONNAGE OF 10.681 TONNES!!!!!! THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE (IT FELL $7.20).  WE MAY HAVE HAD A  MINOR BANKER SHORT COVERING (IF ANY) OPERATION BUT JUDGING FROM THE GAIN IN COMEX OI AND THE GAIN IN EXCHANGES FOR PHYSICAL THEY COULD NOT FLEECE  ON A NET BASIS ANY OF OUR SPECULATOR LONGS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1210) ACCOMPANYING THE  FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (1539 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2749 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 )TINY BANKER SHORT COVERING (IF ANY), 2.)A SMALL DECREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT AUGUST MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION; 4) FAIR COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  AND  …ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR  LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//MONDAY//$7.20.

 

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST : 36.558, CONTRACTS OR 3,655,800, oz OR 113.74 TONNES (18 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2031 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 113.74 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 113.74/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.20% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISSIPATED THIS MONTHTHE COST TO THE BANKERS TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS IN LONDON IS BECOMING TOO GREAT FOR THEM.

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,373.77  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 113.74 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2370 CONTRACTS FROM 191,091 DOWN TO 188,721 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE CONSIDERABLE SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO;   1)COMMENCEMENT OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION 2)   MINIMAL BANKER SHORT COVERING (IF ANY) , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL DECREASE IN SILVER OZ  STANDING AT THE SILVER COMEX FOR AUGUST,  AND  4) MINOR WEAK LONG LIQUIDATION, BUT ON NET ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS ALMOST ALL OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION. 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 287 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 SEPT: 172 AND DEC. 115 AND  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 287 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 2370  CONTRACTS TO THE 287 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A CONSIDERABLE SIZED LOSS OF 20832 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10.415 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED DESPITE OUR 18 CENT LOSS IN PRICE///

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

 

 

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.06 POINTS OR 0.36%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 65.36 POINTS OR 0.26%   /The Nikkei closed UP 311.26 POINTS OR 1.35%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .50%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9131 /Oil UP TO 42.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and 45.57 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9131 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9083 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1539 CONTRACTS TO 551,649 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $7.20 IN GOLD PRICING /MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1210 CONTRACTS),.  THUS,  WE HAD AGAIN 1) MINIMAL BANKER SHORT COVERING AT THE COMEX (IF ANY),  AS THEY  ORCHESTRATED ANOTHER RAID BUT JUDGING FROM THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI,, THEY WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL IN CLOSING OUT MUCH OF THOSE SHORTS…… , PLUS 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  A TINY DECREASE IN GOLD OZ  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) ...  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2749 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON.

 

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 134

 

WE HAD 24 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY AND THAT NUMBER IS RECORDED IN OUR TOTAL NOTICES. 

 

 

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED  TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1230 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  AUG  0 , OCT: 500  DEC 710; JUNE// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1210  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 3434 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1210 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED 2224 COMEX CONTRACTS.  THE BANKERS ARE NOW LOATHE TO SUPPLY THE SHORT PAPER.  THEY CONTINUE TO ISSUE  SMALLER AMOUNTS OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AS THE COST ON CARRYING SERIAL FORWARDS IN LONDON IS TOO GREAT FOR THEM. WE HAD TINY BANKER SHORT COVERING (IF ANY) AS THE BANKERS HAVE BEEN CAUGHT TERRIBLY OFFSIDE ON THEIR SHORT POSITIONS..AND THUS THE REASON FOR OUR HUGE RAIDS LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK COURTESY OF THE OFFICIAL SECTOR/BIS//BANKERS. TODAY WE WITNESSED A SMALL DECREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST.….  WE  LOST ZERO SPECULATOR LONGS DESPITE THE NASTY RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE BIS//

 

 

 

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $7.20).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS 

AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED  8.551 TONNES

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 2749, CONTRACTS OR 274900 OZ OR 8.551 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  551,649 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 55.16 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1715 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1715/2200 OR 77.95% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 263,911 contracts// poor volume//

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  303,601 contracts//  volume: fair  //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

AUGUST 25 /2020

AUGUST GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR AUGUST GOLD

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 63.334.151  oz

BRINKS

 

2001 KILOBARS

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

48,225.000

OZ

LOOMIS

 

1500

KILOBARS

No of oz served (contracts) today
7 notice(s)
 700 OZ
(02177 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
131 contracts
(13,100 oz)
0.4074 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
48809 notices
4,880,900 OZ
151.816 TONNES
includes 2400 oz on enhanced deliveries
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into Brinks:  64,334.151 oz  (2001 kilobars)

 

total deposit: 64,334.151 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Loomis:  48,225.000 oz  (1500 kilobars)

 

total customer deposit:  48,225.000    oz

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

total withdrawals;  nil  oz

 

 

 

We had 2  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 2 //

Both dealer to customer:

i) Out of Brinks:  253,919.605 oz

ii) Out of Manfra: 61,991.171

 

 

The front month of AUGUST registered a total of 138 CONTRACTS as we LOST 72 contracts. We had 68 notices served on MONDAY so we LOST A TINY contracts or an additional 400 OZ will NOT stand for delivery on this side of the pond as they morphed into London based forwards as well as ACCEPTING a fiat bonus for their effort. The boys are scrambling in search of badly needed physical metal as they start to search for metal on the other side of the pond. (the CME is now allowing other refiners as official facilities to supply metal…our regular guys just cannot that which is needed..see report on that below)

 

 

 

 

 

After August we have the non active Sept contract month.. Here we saw another LOSS of 82 contracts to stand at 2447.  Oct LOST 82 contracts DOWN to 72,018

 

The big December contract GAINED 1812 contracts UP to 403,373 contracts…(it is here where some of our short side bankers tried to bail and failed)

 

 

 

We had 7 notices filed today for  700 oz REGULAR INVENTORY

 

FOR THE AUGUST 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 7 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (48,809) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  AUGUST (138 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (7 x 100 oz per contract) equals 4,894,000 OZ OR 152.223 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (48,809, x 100 oz + (138 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (7) x 100 oz which equals 4,894,000 oz standing OR 152.223 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE  amount for gold standing for a AUGUST delivery month (an active delivery month). The figures include the 2400 oz delivered upon in the enhanced gold section.

We LOST 4 contracts or 400 oz of gold as these guys morphed into London based forwards.

THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY IS  BANKER SHORT COVERING AS FINALLY FEAR BECAME THEIR CENTRAL FOCUS.  THEY ORCHESTRATED A RAID TODAY SO AS TO CAUSE SOME WEAK HAND SPECULATORS TO FLEE THE GOLD ARENA. IT LOOKS LIKE THEY FAILED  AGAIN.

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

144,088.952 oz NOW PLEDGED  JAN 21.2020/HSBC  5.4807 TONNES

 

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

231,924.295 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  7.2138 TONNES

611,401.341 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               19.017 tonnes

25,078.004 oz Pledged August 21/regular account  .7800 tonnes

total pledged gold:  1,055,040.900 oz                                     32.81 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 475.43 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 152.233 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  16,340,232.381 oz or 508.24 tonnes
which  includes the following:
a) pledged gold held at HSBC   which cannot settled upon   144,088.952 oz x ( 4.4817 TONNES)//
b) pledged gold held at JPMorgan (SOME  DELETED JUNE 24 2020/SOME JULY 9; SOME JULY 22/July 03/august 3) which cannot be settled upon:  231,924.295 oz (or 7.2138 tonnes)
total pledged gold:
b 2 pledged gold JPMorgan august 21/2020;  25,078.004 oz  (7800 tonnes)
c)  pledged gold at Scotia: 1.3234 tonnes or 42,548.308 oz which cannot be settled  (1.3234 tonnes)
d) pledged gold at Manfra:  DELETED  MAY 26.2020
e) pledged gold at int.Del.    DELETED:   JULY 7.2020
f) pledged gold at Brinks:  DELETED july 2 and july 21
g) pledged gold at Brinks: 611,401.341 oz added which cannot be settled:  19,017 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,055,040.900 oz or 32.81 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon:  15,285192.0  (475,43 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,285,192.0 (475.43 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,792,356.167 oz (646.72 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold;   37,132,588.548 oz 1,154.97 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1028,63 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 

 

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

 

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 

END

AUGUST 25/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

 

AUGUST SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDINGS

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 3,015,619.240 oz
Brinks
Delaware
Loomis

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
1,396,220.180 oz
Brinks

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
600,637.350 oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
1
CONTRACT(S)
(5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
13 contracts
 65,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1279 contracts

6,395,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 1 deposit into the dealer:
i) Into Brinks:  1,396,220.180 oz

total dealer deposits: 1,396,220.180   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i)into JPMorgan:  nil oz

 

 

 

ii) Into Scotia:600,637,350 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017, 2018 and onward, has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 165.53 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.71% of all official comex silver. (165.53 million/339.845 million

 

total customer deposits today: 600,637.350   oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

 

 

i) Out of Delaware: 2000.300 oz

ii) Out of Loomis: 1,611,725.595 oz

iii) Out of Brinks: 1,401,893.440 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals;  3,015,619.240    oz

We had 0 adjustments

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 130.403 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  339.845 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

the front month of August registered an open interest of 14 contracts and thus we LOST 2 contracts.  We had 0 notices filed on MONDAY so we LOST 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz will  not stand for delivery as these guys  morphed into London based forwards as well as accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts…. The bankers are now desperate in their search for badly needed silver whether it is on this side of the pond or the European side.

 

 

 

After August we have the  big September contract month and here we see a loss 9464 contracts down to 49,796. November saw another gain of 434 contracts to stand at 739.

SEPT OI IS VERY HIGH AND WE WILL HAVE A DANDY AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.  WE HAVE 5 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE AUGUST 31/2020 (MONDAY)

 

The big December contract month saw its OI rise by good 7288 contracts up to 126,646

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST 2020. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR 5,000, oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1279 x 5,000 oz = 6,395,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST(14) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2019 contract month: 1279 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST  (14)- number of notices served upon today (1) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.equals 6,460,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH.

We lost 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz will not  stand for delivery as they morphed into London based forwards..

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 125,218 CONTRACTS // volume huge+++++++++++++/

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY: 162,540.  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//volume huge.++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++  

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 162,540 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 10.626 billion  OZ 89.44% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 4.80% ((AUGUST 25/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -1.83% to NAV:   (AUGUST 25/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/4.80%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 20.28 TRADING 19.64///NEGATIVE 3.00

END

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY, WE  HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.20 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.38 TONNES

AUGUST 21//WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.45 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .//INVENTORY REST AT  1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $39.65 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.60 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.09 TONNES//GLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD UP $46.30  TODAY:  SURPRISINGLY WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL  OF 3.8 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.29 TONNES

AUGUST 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $19.45 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1.46 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.63 TONNES.

AUGUST 13/WITH GOLD UP $23.15 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: SURPRISINGLY A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 7.30 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.63 TONNES

AUGUST 12/ WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.19 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.93 TONNES

AUGUST 11//WITH GOLD DOWN $92.40 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1262.12 TONNES.

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD UP $11.35  TODAY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1262.12 TONNES

AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.30 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96 TONNES

AUGUST 6/WITH GOLD UP $20.45 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 10.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.96  TONNES//

AUGUST 5/WITH GOLD UP $ 33.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 9.35 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.73 TONNES

AUGUST 4//WITH GOLD UP $31.75 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 6.48 TONNES/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.38 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN THE GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241,96 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD UP $17.90 TODAY/WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241.96 TONNES.

JULY 30/WITH GOLD DOWN  $10.00 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1241.96 TONNES.

JULY 29//WITH GOLD UP  $12.45 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.47 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1243.12 TONNES

JULY 28///WITH GOLD UP $13.25 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.84 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1234.65

JULY 27//WITH GOLD UP $35.30 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF XXX TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1228.81 TONNES

JULY 24/WITH GOLD UP $8.80 TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.80 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1228.81 TONNES

JULY 23/WITH GOLD UP $24.90 TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 7.26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1225.01 TONNES

JULY 22/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1219.75 TONNES

JULY 21//WITH GOLD UP $26.00 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1211.86 TONNES

JULY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD UP $7.70 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.80 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 15//WITH GOLD UP $1.55 TODAY/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1206.89 TONNES

JULY 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 3.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1203.97 TONNES

JULY 13//WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.46 TONNES

JULY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $.50 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A STRANGE WITHDRAWAL  OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1200.82 TONNES

JULY 9//WITH GOLD DOWN $11.75 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OX 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1202.57 TONNES

JULY 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.75 TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 7.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1199.36 TONNES

JULY 7/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1191.47 TONNES

JULY 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.21 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1182.11 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1178.90 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

AUGUST 25/ GLD INVENTORY 1252.38 tonnes*

LAST;  888 TRADING DAYS:   +312.88 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 788 TRADING DAYS://+491,41  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.074 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24//WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A NO CHANGES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 21//WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.838 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.724 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY REST AT 572.843 MILLION  OZ

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP $.44 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.514 MILLION OZ//THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 576.567 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER  UP $1.27 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.31 TODAY, WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.984 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER UP $1.76  TODAY: WE HAVE TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.421  MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV AT 2 PM AND ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 6.984 MILLION OZ AT 5 20 PM/INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.037 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF XX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT XX MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $3.25 CENTS, WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.41 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.632 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 1.89 TODAY, WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.538 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.491  MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 0.465 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.029 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 6/WITH SILVER UP $1.52 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ///

AUGUST 5/WITH SILVER UP $1.03 TODAY, WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A MONSTROUS DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.564 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP $1.45 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//SURPRISINGLY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 0.931 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 367.161 MILLION OZ//

JULY 31/WITH SILVER UP 82 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SURPRISINGLY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.26 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 368.092 MILLION OZ//

JULY 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 97 CENTS TODAY: WE HAVE A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 0.931 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.352 MILLION OZ//

JULY 29/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 5.984 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.283 MILLION OZ//

JULY 28  WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 7.52 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.299 MILLION OZ//

JULY 27/WITH SILVER UP $2.67 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF XX MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ//

JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.12 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ/

JULY 23/WITH SILVER UP $.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 9.594 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.779 MILLION OZ///

JULY 22/WITH SILVER UP $1.54 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 7.218 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.185 MILLION OZ/

JULY 21/WITH SILVER UP $1.38 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUMONGOUS PAPER DEPOSIT OF 15.368 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.967 MILLION OZ//

JULY 20/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:  A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 3.819 MILLION OZ ‘ENTERED” THE SLV..INVENTORY RESTS AT 526.599 MILLION OZ/

JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 1.583 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 522.780 MILLION OZ//

JULY 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF  5.123 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 521.197 MILLION OZ..

JULY 15.WITH SILVER  UP 21 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.956 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 516.074 MILLION OZ//

JULY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 13//WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.677 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 514.118 MILLION OZ//

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 4.844 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT  515.795 MILLION OZ

WHAT A FRAUD!!

JULY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 8.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 510.951 MILLION OZ/

JULY 8/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.118 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//VERY SURPRISING.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.753 MILLION OZ//

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ///

JULY 6//WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.863 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 503.871 MILLION OZ

JULY 2/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 4.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 502.008 MILLION OZ

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.403 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 498.007 MILLION OZ/

 

AUGUST 25.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

571.074 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Al of Turkish gold production is purchased by its central bank

(BloombergNews)

Record Turkish gold production is all headed for the central bank

 Section: 

By Ercan Ersoy
Bloomberg News
Monday, August 24, 2020

Turkey is poised to produce a record amount of gold this year and the central bank will probably buy all of it — at prices near record highs.

Production by one of the world’s top buyers of the precious metal is expected to increase 16% to 44 tons this year, Hasan Yucel, the head of Turkey’s Gold Miners Association, said in an interview.

… 

Legislation introduced in 2017 gives the central bank the right of first refusal to purchase gold mined in the country at prevailing market prices. The value of its gold reserves surged to an all-time high in the week through Aug. 7, only to drop 5% a week later, the biggest decline in five months. That effectively mirrored the moves in market prices over the same period.

 

“The central bank has always been our only buyer since the legislation was changed,” Yucel said, predicting that the trend is unlikely to change this year.

The value of the central bank’s stockpiles have surged even as it ran down foreign-exchange reserves to an almost 15-year low to support its weakening currency. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-24/turkey-s-record-gold-…

end

Seems that the comex is running out of metal..they have now expanded its list of eligible refinery gold and silver bar brands that can be delivered against the 100 oz contract in gold and 5000 oz contract in silver.

(Ronan Manly)

Ronan Manly: Quiet but vast expansion of Comex’s approved bar list indicates tight metals market

 Section: 

LBMA-Comex Collusion Intensifies as CME Approves 267 LBMA Gold and Silver Bar Brands

By Ronan Manly
Bullion Star, Singapore
Monday, August 24, 2020

In a move that has gone entirely unnoticed in the precious metals markets but signals gold and silver bar delivery constraints for the Comex gold and silver futures contracts, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, operator of the New York-based Comex, has quietly and under the radar hugely expanded its lists of eligible refinery gold and silver bar brands that can be delivered against the massively traded flagship GC 100 (100-ounce gold) and SI (5,000-ounce silver) contracts.

These changes, which were implemented on 27 July and which are detailed below, also look to be serving an even bigger agenda of preparing for a radical change in the delivery procedures of these two famous contracts so as to facilitate gold and silver stored in London Bullion Market Association vaults in London, to be used in settlement against the GC 100-ounce and the SI 5000-ounce Comex contracts.

 

Note that the Comex 100-ounce gold futures contract is currently deliverable as either one 100-troy-ounce gold bar or three 1-kilo gold bars, while the Comex 5,000-ounce silver futures contract is currently deliverable as five 1,000-troy-ounce cast silver bars (with a weight tolerance of 10% either higher or lower).

To reiterate, these changes are to the gold and silver refiner brand lists of the big-boy contracts GC 100 and SI. You may recall something similar happening for a new 4GC contract when it was rushed out in late March, but that was just a trial run. This is the main event.

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/lbma-comex-collusion-inten…

end

Northern Dynasty has 90 days to show that they would offset damage to the wetlands and popular fishing sites amid rising opposition to the project by Republicans.

(Reuters)

Alaska’s Pebble Mine told to offset damage as Republican opposition grows

 Section: 

From Reuters
Monday, August 24, 2020

The U.S. government today placed an additional hurdle in front of Alaska’s Pebble Mine project, giving developers 90 days to explain how they would offset damage to wetlands and popular fishing sites amid rising opposition to the project by prominent Republicans.

The stipulation, in a letter from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to Vancouver-based Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd, could delay final permit approval for the mine. The company described the request as routine.

… 

Shares of Northern Dynasty lost nearly 40% of their value today following the announcement by the Army Corps, which said the mine would cause “unavoidable adverse impacts to aquatic resources.”

 

The administration of Republican President Donald Trump had moved closer last month to approving the mine’s permit, reversing a decision by former Democratic President Barack Obama.

But a prominent group of Republicans, including Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. and Fox News host Tucker Carlson, have voiced opposition, saying the mine would destroy areas where they enjoy fishing and hunting.

Alaska’s two U.S. senators, Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski, the powerful chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, came out against the mine this evening. The two Republican senators said in separate statements that the mine, as currently proposed, would cause too much environmental damage. …

… Dispatch continues below …

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-alaska-pebblemine/northern-dynast…

iii) Other physical stories:

More and more investors are switching to gold

(Michael maharrey/Schiff Gold)

Confessions Of A Reluctant Gold Investor

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Vitaliy Katsenelson serves as the chief investment officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver. In an article he wrote for MarketWatch, he admits his company has resisted buying gold in the past.

But the company is buying gold now.

Why?

In a nutshell – currency debasement.

Gold hedges our clients against two scenarios: a weaker US dollar and the debasement of all currencies (the dollar declines and so do other currencies). Dollar outflows will be looking for homes. Some money will flow into euros, British pounds, and Swiss francs, and some into gold — an incorruptible asset class (central banks and politicians cannot create more gold).”

Katsenelson wrote that in the past, his rationale for not owning gold was that he’d rather own “good companies.” This is very similar to the strategy Warren Buffet has always advised to avoid inflation, as Peter Schiff explained in a recent podcast.

Warren Buffett has never been advocating that anybody buy a gold stock. In fact, when he’s been asked about gold, he’s kind of dismissed it as a non-producing asset, and he’s always been saying, ‘Look, if you’re worried about inflation, just buy equities, buy businesses.’ … That’s probably true when the inflation is manageable, when it’s small, maybe a few percent a year. But when you’re about to have massive inflation, a much higher degree of inflation, that’s what I think causes Warren Buffett to decide that now it’s time to hedge the old-fashioned way. I can’t just buy businesses, especially when they’re overpriced. I’ve got to buy gold businesses. I’ve got to get into physical gold.

Katsenelson said his company will continue to invest in “good companies,” but it will also add gold as “an unloved hedge.”

Meanwhile, the US will have its challenges and will adapt to them. As investors, we will adapt as well — we just like to be early.”

I’m not sure I would call getting into gold now “early.” But I suppose from a mainstream perspective, it might be.

Katsenelson spends the bulk of his column space talking about problems with the dollar. As the reserve currency, the greenback has enjoyed a privileged position. But as Katsenelson put it, being the envy of the world changes your behavior.

 You start believing that you are very special for reasons that are not grounded in reality. You start believing that bad things happen only to other people and nations because they are not as special as you. You can do anything you want — borrow and spend as much as you like — and nothing bad will happen to you. This behavior in turn starts to undermine the core reasons why people trusted your country and currency to begin with. This is what is now happening to the US.

Debt to GDP will likely exceed 120% this year and could even eclipse 130%. It’s easy to blame COVID-19 for the surge in debt. It has certainly exacerbated the problem. But the federal government was on pace for a $1 trillion-plus deficit this year even before the pandemic. As Katenelson put it, “The US has run huge budget deficits in bad times and in good, long before the virus.”

Katsenelson said it’s unlikely the US would outright default on its debt. Instead, it will “honor” its obligations via “massive money printing.”

“Which could bring massive inflation and tank the US dollar (who wants to own a currency that buys less and less?). God help you if you reached for yield and loaded up on long-term bonds (a trade that minted money for the past 30 years). Long-term bonds will be widow-makers in this scenario.”

As a result, Katsenelson says he believes the “strength the dollar has experienced over the past decade will likely fade.”

The dollar’s decline may bring higher prices, higher inflation (we are a net importer), and higher interest rates (the Fed will try to squash interest rates, until it cannot). In my firm’s portfolios we are already partially positioned for this shift by owning foreign stocks — a weaker dollar means foreign company earnings will go up in the US dollar terms. But there is another asset we’re buying — gold.

Peter Schiff has been talking about this scenario for years. Now even reluctant gold investors are starting to see the writing on the wall.

end

j jOHNSON’S COMMODITY REPORT

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/08/25/the-jackson-hole-knock-gold-is-money-gold-is-money-gold-is-money/

The Jackson Hole Knock; Gold Is Money! Gold Is Money! Gold Is Money!

Posted August 25th, 2020 at 9:19 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Tuesday Morning Folks,

       Gold is flat to lower with the December contract at $1,937.10, down $2.10 after the London low at $1,927.10 with the high to beat at $1,944.10. Silver is positive with December trade at $26.835, up 6.7 cents after its recovery from London’s low at $26.575 with the high to beat at $27.015. The US Dollar’s float now rests at 93.07, down 21.9 points after the centrals pushed its value up during Monday’s activity with today’s low at 93.02 and the high at 93.35. Of course, all this happened already before 5am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after Chinese officials, Ambassador Lighthizer, and Secretary Mnuchin, talked again about the agreement that China made and reneged on many times already.

      Venezuela’s Bolivar now has Golds value at 19,346.79, showing a 208.74 Bolivar pullback with Silver’s trade at 268.015 Bolivar, taking back 2.746 from yesterday’s activities. Argentina’s Peso price for Gold is now at 142,698.22 showing a 1,388.55 A-Peso reduction with Silver at 1,976.99 A-Peso’s pulling back 17.89, which was far more than yesterday’s gains. The Turkish Lira’s price for Gold is now at 14,317.38 T-Lira’s showing a 126.83 pullback which is just over 25% of yesterday’s gains with Silver doing the same, pulling back about 25% with the last trade at 198.339 T-Lira’s.

      We’re getting down to the wire here in the August Deliveries with this mornings Demand Count at 14 and with a Volume of 2 up on the board with 2 prices posted, $26.785 and $26.70 with the last trade at the low, providing a gain of 11.2 cents so far today, even while the papers play the price lower. Yesterday’s delivery activity happened in between $26.78 and $26.695 with only 3 contracts swapping hands, and reducing the demand count by 2. The Overall Open Interest in Silver continues to lose its shorts as another 2,241 contracts jumped ship, leaving the overall count at 189,203 Overnighter’s still in trade, as we get closer and closer to the Jackson Hole gathering, the day after the September options expire. So far this month, we have 1,292 contracts delivered, which breaks down to 6,460,000 ounces of Silver. Not bad at all for a cereal month!

      August Gold’s Delivery Demand Count now sits at 138 fully paid for contracts with a Volume of 29 up on the board and a trading range between $1,928.50 and $1,920.90. Oops! Make that last trade at $1,915, down $12.70 as another single lot sell order came in reducing the price by another $5.90. Thank you, London! Yesterday’s delivery activity happened in between $1,940 and $1,922.20 with the last trade done at $1,923 with its calculated Comex close at $1,927.70 that had a total Volume of 85, reducing the delivery count by 72. Gold’s Overall Open Interest added more shorts, as another 1,768 Overnighters came in leaving a grand total of 552,334 contracts in trade. So far, for the month of August, 48,809 contracts got receipts, or said another way 4,880,900-ounces were taken out of Comex, one way or another.

      Jackson Hole’s Virtual Reality is going to take over the entire week, so we will wait it out to see what is said. I’m hoping that Judy “Shelton” knocks on that Jackson Hole Fed door, like Sheldon does in the Bigger Bang Theory. That would be great; Knock Knock Knock “Gold is money”, Knock Knock Knock “Gold is money”, Knock Knock Knock “Gold is money”! Maybe that would get the point across. Enjoy your day, have a smile on your face and a prayer for all, and as always ….

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

END

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.9131/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9083   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 12.06 POINTS OR 0.36%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 65.36 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 311.26 POINTS OR 1.35%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 93.17/Euro RISES TO 1.1815

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.42/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 42.77 and Brent: 45.57

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.44%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.02% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.37%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.46: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.09

3k Gold at $1923.40 silver at: 26.36   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 23/100 in roubles/dollar) 74.82

3m oil into the 42 dollar handle for WTI and 45 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.42 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .91007 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0758 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.44%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.687% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.39%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.3934..

Futures Punch To New Record High After US-China Reaffirm Commitment To Trade Deal

Three things send the market higher these days: i) optimism that Congress will finally renew the fiscal stimulus which expired on July 31; ii) optimism that a covid vaccine will miraculously fix the global economy, and iii) in a throwback to 2019 optimism on the US-China trade deal. We got a dose of iii) late on Monday when the USTR reported that top U.S. and Chinese trade officials reaffirmed their commitment to a Phase 1 trade deal which has seen China lagging on its obligations to buy American goods, with a call (originally scheduled for Aug 15) in which both sides saw “progress and are committed to taking the steps necessary to ensure the success of the agreement”, and demonstrating a willingness to cooperate even as tensions rise over issues ranging from data security to democracy in Hong Kong.

Given the exchanges between the U.S. and China recently “have been negative, any small bit of positivity is seen as a big step forward, even when it isn’t,” said David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK. It was certainly enough to push US equity futures higher for a fourth straight session, with the Emini punching to a new all time of 3,448.75 during the Asian session which saw shares rise throughout most of Asia, before trimming gains to around 3,440 after the European open.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both clocked new record highs on Monday, with the benchmark index surpassing its pre-pandemic high last week even as recent economic data pointed to a wobbly recovery from the virus-led downturn. However, even as the ES was up some 0.3%, Nasdaq futures were shockingly in the red sparking panic and hysteria among a generation of retail daytraders who have never seen a red open in a centrally-planned market.

Salesforce.com, Amgen and Honeywell climbed between 3.6% and 4% premarket on news they would join the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average index on Aug. 31. This came at the expense of three companies that are getting kicked out of the DJIA including E&P titan and formerly world’s most valuable company Exxon Mobil, Pfizer and Raytheon Technologies which were down between 1.5% and 2.4%. Best Buy dropped despite reporting earnings that beat on the top and bottom line; Folgers coffee maker JM Smucker  medical device maker Medtronic are also due to report quarterly results before the opening bell.

Investors also remain focused on vaccine progress as global economies reopen. Moderna said it’s near a deal to supply at least 80 million vaccine doses to the European Union.

“A steady flow of progress with Covid-19 treatments/vaccines is delivering the latest boost to risk appetite,” said Oanda senior market analyst Edward Moya, but just like Morgan Stanley, he cautioned that “market breadth however does not support the surge to record high territory for U.S. indexes.”

European stocks advanced for a second day after the latest IFO surveys showed German companies turning slightly more optimistic on the economic recovery despite missing expectations on, well, expectations:

  • Ifo Expectations 97.5 vs. Exp. 98.0 (Prev. 96.7)
  • Ifo Current Conditions 87.9 vs. Exp. 87.0 (Prev. 84.5)
  • Ifo Business Climate 92.6 vs. Exp. 92.1 (Prev. 90.4)

The current assessment continues to lag expectations about the future, a reversal to pre-covid days.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.4% as of 10:28 a.m. in London, with travel stocks advancing more than 2% and leading gains among sectors.

In Asia, markets were broadly higher, with Tokyo, Taipei, Seoul and Sydney all in the green while peers in Hong Kong and Shanghai slipped. South Korea’s Kospi Index gained 1.6% and Jakarta Composite rising 1.2%, while Shanghai Composite dropped 0.4%. Japan’s Topix gained 1.1%, with Globeride and Land Co rising the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.4%, with Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry and Dalian Bio-Chem posting the biggest slides.

In rates, treasuries traded heavy into early U.S. session with yields cheaper by 1bp-4bp across the curve in bear-steepening move. Treasury 10-year yields close to cheapest level of the day at 0.684%, highest in several days; long-end-led losses steepen 2s10s, 5s30s by ~2bp. Factors weighing on the curve include IG credit issuance, start of Treasury auction cycle and grind higher in S&P 500 futures. In Europe, Bunds lag Treasuries by 2bp while gilts trade broadly in line. As Bloomberg notes, concession starts to build into front-end also with $50b 2-year note sale at 1pm ET, ahead of $51b 5-year Wednesday and $47b 7-year Thursday.

In FX, the dollar and yen have softened against most currencies, while the euro has been topping the top-performing list as Action Economics recaps. This dynamic has come amid risk-on positioning in global markets. EUR-USD lifted to the mid 1.1800s, posting an intraday peak at 1.1843, which is 60 pips up on Monday’s New York closing level. The euro has also rallied against the yen, which is the day’s biggest loser, and most other currencies. While a bout of general dollar selling has helped to lift EUR-USD, there have concurrently been a couple of cues to buy euros, including August German Ifo business climate indicator, which beat forecasts in rising to a headline reading of 92.6, and remarks from German finance minister Scholz, who said there are signs that the German economy is developing above forecasts. USD-JPY, meanwhile, posted an eight-day high at 106.38, which is a gain of just over 40 pips on yesterday’s closing level. The biggest mover out of the main currency pairings and crosses was EUR-JPY, which was showing over a 0.8% gain. The cross printed a six-day high at 125.97. GBP-JPY was not far behind, while AUD-JPY was showing a near 0.5% upward advance. Cable pegged an intraday high at 1.3126. USD-CAD posted a five-day peak at 1.3240 in pre-London trading, subsequently settling lower.

In commodities, oil was slightly higher as traders kept a watchful eye on Tropical Storm Laura, which is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall later this week. U.S. gasoline futures rose to the highest level since March on concern over possible fuel shortages. Elsewhere, gold dipped as low as $1,922 an ounce trading in a narrow range.

Looking at today’s calendar, we’ll get the FHFA house price index for June, new home sales or July, as well as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for August. The Conference Board is expected to show U.S. consumer confidence improved slightly in August after falling more than expected in July amid a flare up in coronavirus cases. Otherwise, San Francisco Fed President Daly will be speaking, and earnings releases include Salesforce, Medtronic, Intuit and Autodesk. Investors also await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s address on Thursday for hints on the central bank’s next steps to support an economic recovery.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 3,439.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 372.29
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 172.99
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 572.19
  • Nikkei up 1.4% to 23,296.77
  • Topix up 1.1% to 1,625.23
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 25,486.22
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,373.58
  • Sensex up 0.06% to 38,824.20
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,161.39
  • Kospi up 1.6% to 2,366.73
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.1 bps to -0.47%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.1817
  • Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 0.819%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.3 bps to 0.36%
  • Brent futures up 0.3% to $45.28/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,926.57
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 93.06

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The U.S. and China reaffirmed their commitment to the phase-one trade deal in a biannual review, demonstrating a willingness to cooperate even as tensions rise over issues ranging from data security to democracy in Hong Kong
  • Germany’s coronavirus daily new cases increased at a pace not seen for almost four months
  • Moderna Inc. has announced it is close to a deal with the EU to provide at least 80 million vaccine doses
  • Storm Laura is expected to be upgraded to a hurricane when it makes landfall on the American gulf coast in the next few days, leading U.S. gasoline futures to rise to their highest since the start of the pandemic on fears over potential fuel shortages

Courtesy of NewsSquawk, here is a quick recap of global markets:

Asian equity markets were mixed after trading mostly higher as the region initially took impetus from the fresh record highs on Wall St where cyclicals outperformed and with risk appetite also spurred by COVID-19 plasma treatment hopes, as well as reports US and China’s top trade negotiators held a constructive conversation on the Phase 1 agreement. ASX 200 (+0.5%) was led by tech and financials although gains in the benchmark index were capped by resistance at the 6200 level and amid headwinds from a deluge of earnings, while Nikkei 225 (+1.4%) outperformed as exporters cheered recent currency weakness and with the government to ease the ban on foreign residents returning to the country. Hang Seng (-0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) also began higher after the PBoC boosted its liquidity efforts with a total CNY 300bln of reverse repo operations and following talks between USTR Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and China’s Vice Premier Liu He in which both sides saw progress and were committed to taking the next steps required to ensure the success of the deal. However, gains later faded given that discussions were not much of a surprise and with the PBoC distancing itself from lowering capital requirements for bank, while Hong Kong was also cautious ahead of Chief Executive Lam’s announcement on social distancing arrangements later today as the current restrictions which limits public gatherings to two people are set to expire. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre with price action contained below the 152.00 level after weakness in T-notes and demand sapped by the gains in stocks, with the 20yr JGB auction doing little to spur prices despite printing improved results.

Top Asian News

  • U.S., China Signal Progress on Trade Deal as Relations Fray
  • Hong Kong to Relax Social Distancing Rules as Virus Cases Drop
  • Credit Suisse’s Head of Asia Technology to Join Xiaomi as CFO
  • Thai Cabinet Approves Extension of Emergency for Another Month

Stocks in Europe trade with modest gains (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.6%) albeit off highs, as sentiment somewhat improved following the mixed APAC lead. Some suggest that the “constructive” US-Sino trade call is spurring risk assets. However, it is worth remembering that there has been no new progress/developments in terms of trade, and in the grand scheme of things, US-Sino relations remain at all-time-lows on a number of fronts – e.g. geopolitics, capital markets and technology. On the data front – the German Ifo survey showed optimism in the country has increased, but economists noted that the German recovery is fragile and stocks were largely unfazed by the release. Sectors are mostly in the green, although the cyclical tilt seen at the open has somewhat faded, but nonetheless, financials and travel & leisure hold their top positions in the region, whilst materials and energy lag amid the price action in their respective complexes. In terms of individual movers, Aveva (+3.9%) holds onto gains after announcing a proposed acquisition of Osisoft for an enterprise value of USD 5bln. Nokia (+0.5%) and Ericsson (+1.2%) remain firm after reports noted that the Indian government is looking to phase out equipment from Chinese companies including Huawei from its telecoms network amid border tensions – with Nokia and Ericsson potentially to gain from this. On the flip side, Swisscom (-1.0%) is subdued after Swiss competition watchdog opened a probe into the Co. amid suspected abuse of market position within the broadband sector.

Top European News

  • German Businesses Signal Optimism Recovery Is on Track; Germany Closes In on Agreement to Extend Job-Preserving Aid
  • Credit Suisse to Cut Branches, Staff by Merging Swiss Unit
  • Vanishing Jobs and Empty Offices Plague Britain’s Retailers
  • Italy Clashes With Ex- Monopoly Over Future of Phone Network

In FX, as the DXY hovers just above the 93.000 level within a confined 93.012-351 band, major Dollar counterparts are also sitting close to big figures awaiting firm breaks or clearer direction, like the Euro in wake of an encouraging German Ifo survey on balance. To recap, 2 out of the 3 metrics exceeded expectations, but the more forward looking outlook reading missed consensus remains the institute was reserved in describing the economic recovery as fragile. Hence, Eur/Usd was toppy ahead of yesterday’s peak and hefty option expiry interest close by at 1.1850 in 1 bn. Meanwhile, Cable continues to pivot 1.3100 ahead of CBI trades and amidst the ongoing threat of Britain leaving transition without a Brexit trade deal, and the Franc is still tethered to 0.9100 after a dip in Swiss Q2 payrolls was largely nullified by an upward revision to the previous quarter. However, the Yen has retreated through 106.00 and into a lower range on a loss of safe-haven premium and with US Treasury yields backing up before this week’s auctions amidst curve re-steepening.

  • NZD/AUD/CAD – The Kiwi is holding above 0.6500 in advance of NZ trade data and the Aussie has gleaned more indirect support from another firm PBoC CNY fix that in turn has given the CNH fresh impetus to test 6.9000 vs the Greenback. Aud/Usd is meandering between 0.7152-82 following mixed independent impulses overnight via an improvement in ANZ weekly consumer confidence in contrast to labour data revealing a 1% decline in jobs for the month to August 8 and 2.8% drop in the state of Victoria for a national fall of 4.9% relative to mid-March (pre-pandemic or the ‘first’ wave as such). Conversely, the Loonie is licking wounds beneath 1.3200 and detached from choppy oil prices following Canada’s appeal to the WTO against US soft lumber levies.
  • SCANDI/EM – Marginal Nok outperformance even though Norwegian GDP was a bit weaker than forecast in Q2, but the Try has not derived much traction on the back of a rise in Turkish manufacturing sentiment and the Rub is not tracking the firm tone in Brent against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical/diplomatic tensions that are also weighing on the Lira.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures remain relatively flat in early European trade, with the benchmark only some USD 0.2-0.3/bbl off overnight lows. Traders are keeping a keen eye on the developments in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Laura is forecast to evolve into a major hurricane before making landfall late-Wednesday, whilst Marco was downgraded to a Tropical Depression. On that front, the latest update from the Search Results Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) estimates around 82.4% of current oil production shuttered – with the next release scheduled for 1400ET/1900BST. WTI Oct resides around USD 42.50/bbl (vs. low ~42.30/bbl), whilst its Brent counterpart trades around USD 45.25/bbl (vs. low USD 45.08/bbl). Traders will now be eyeing the weekly release of the Private Inventories in the absence of macro headlines – albeit price action could be muted as hurricane developments are timelier. Elsewhere, spot gold trades choppy within a tight range on either side of USD 1930/oz whilst spot silver sees similar action around 26.50/oz – both moving in tandem with the Buck ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Thursday. In terms of base metals, Dalian iron ore prices fell some 3.5% whilst Shanghai steel rebar edged lower as downstream demand recovery missed market forecasts. Conversely, Shanghai nickel prices rose almost 2% at one point amid dwindling Chinese port inventories.

US Event Calendar

  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.3%; House Price Purchase Index QoQ, prior 1.7%
  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.1%, prior 0.04%; YoY NSA, est. 3.6%, prior 3.69%
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 93, prior 92.6; Present Situation, prior 94.2; Expectations, prior 91.5
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 790,000, prior 776,000; MoM, est. 1.8%, prior 13.8%
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 10, prior 10

DB’s Jim Reid, freshly back from vacation, concludes the overnight wrap

If you’d have told me at the start of the year that at the end of August I’d be quarantining with my family and not allowed to leave the perimeter of my garden then I’d have been extremely worried and assumed that one of my children had dug up the bubonic plague. Thankfully it’s less worrisome than that and instead because I was on holiday in the French Alps and new travel rules now apply back to the U.K from France. Ironically the French Alps have hardly seen new cases rise even if they have in say Paris and parts of the South of France. So if you’d have got back two days before me from Paris you wouldn’t have to quarantine but I do from the Alps. We still had to cut our holiday short by a week to ensure the children didn’t miss their first days at school next week. Elite athletes are exempt from these rules but after trying to show the customs officer at the Channel Tunnel my golf swing I wasn’t given special dispensation.

So we’ve been looking after three young terrors at home over the last week and it’s been painful with nothing to do or nowhere to go. Bronte also doesn’t understand why she doesn’t get walked. All first world problems admittedly but I really don’t understand those that say the best thing about Covid is that you get to spend more time with your family. I love them all dearly but an hour or two a day is ideal (that doesn’t include my wife by the way).

So I actually mean it when I say it’s good to be back in my home office mentally and physically quarantining from the kids. Over the holiday I’ve been thinking a lot about the virus and the way forward and I continue to scratch my head about the end game. Within the next few weeks we should know much more about the state of play with regards to the leaders in the vaccine race (supportive news yesterday for the AstraZeneca/Oxford Uni version as we’ll see below). That’s probably going to be the most important newsflow of the next month or so. We’re trying to collate as much info as possible on the current state of play with vaccines and will try to put out a piece next week on where we are at. Obviously if a vaccine gets approved in the coming weeks then we’ll likely have a realistic end game within months as I’m sure we’ll go into mass production very quickly.

However without a vaccine it feels like global strategies are very difficult to decipher. When lockdowns started back in March the main rational was to ensure health services did not get overrun. Five months on, the number of Covid cases in hospitals are relatively low in many areas and yet many countries seem to be trying to keep cases as low as possible as a badge of honour and the world has got so scared that such a strategy seems to meet high approval. Countries that are seeing cases rise are looked at with great suspicion even if hospitalisations are still relatively low. However is such suppression a sustainable strategy? Given this is happening in the northern hemisphere summer I can’t help wondering where we’ll be in two or three months time and what the reaction will be from the authorities.

The good news is that there continues to be plenty of evidence that those catching the virus seem to be from younger, less vulnerable cohorts and this seems to be contributing to a lower and lower case fatality rate across the globe alongside better treatment and possibly the virus mutating. To be fair listening to politicians the bar to renewed full lockdowns seems to be high around the world, but equally the bar to getting to anything resembling normality also seems very high. So we are in Covid limbo until a vaccine or a yet unidentified master plan materialises. All ahead of a northern hemisphere autumn and winter when life will naturally move more indoors.

To be fair all of this continues to be a passing curiosity to the US equity market which continues to hit new highs even if the breadth of the winners has narrowed further in recent weeks. Yesterday showed some signs of rotation and catch up from the laggards though, which helped push the S&P 500 up a further +1.00%, having already risen for 7 of the last 8 weeks. The move took the index to another record high and puts it +6.03% on a YTD basis. The airline industry led the S&P yesterday, gaining +8.23% as optimism on a possible vaccine buoyed the beaten down industry higher. In fact American Airlines (+10.53%), Carnival (+10.17%), United (+9.93%), Delta (+9.28%) and Norwegian Cruise Line (+7.58%) were five of the seven best performing stocks in the index. Elsewhere, tech stocks underperformed as there was some rotation out of biotechs (-0.47%) in particular. The Nasdaq closed +0.60% higher yesterday (also to a new record) with the tech-dominated index now standing at an astonishing +26.83% higher YTD.

On the vaccine news, AstraZeneca shares were up +2.06% following the FT report that the Trump administration could bypass normal regulatory standards for the Oxford vaccine. As the election approaches it seems inevitable that Mr Trump will want to encourage as much positivity on the virus as is in his power. So one to watch.

Oil prices were buoyant as well yesterday, with Brent crude up +1.76% to $45.13/bbl in a move that wiped out all of last week’s declines and helped energy stocks lead the equity advance on both sides of the Atlantic. Over in Europe, equities saw even bigger moves higher, with the STOXX 600 up +1.58% and the DAX up +2.36%.

The rotation into risk assets saw sovereign bonds lose ground somewhat yesterday, and yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +2.6bps by the close. With market participants awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole for any policy hints, our global head of rates research Francis Yared wrote a blog post yesterday (link here) in which he says that a lot of the expected dovishness is already priced into markets. As a result, only a material upsizing in QE should have a material market impact. There was a similar pattern for European rates too yesterday, where yields on 10yr bunds (+1.6bps), OATs (+0.9bps) and gilts (+0.7bps) all rose. And in line with this retreat from safe assets, gold extended its falls from the previous week with a further -0.60% decline. It’s now -6.53% off its highs 3 weeks ago.

Overnight the key news has been that the US and China’s top trade negotiators discussed the Phase 1 trade deal last night and the US concluded that both sides saw progress and are committed to its success. The US statement said that “The parties also discussed the significant increases in purchases of US products by China as well as future actions needed to implement the agreement,” while adding that China has made progress on other commitments like taking steps to ensure greater protection for intellectual property rights and removing impediments to American companies in the areas of financial services.

Asian markets are mostly positive this morning outside of China and HK which are seeing the Hang Seng (-0.53%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.19%) both down. The Nikkei (+1.84%), Kospi (+1.44%) and Asx (+0.42%) are up though alongside futures on the S&P 500 (+0.46%). Elsewhere, gold and silver prices are also up +0.39% and +0.49% and in agriculture commodities, CBT soybeans and corn future prices are up +1.10% and +1.52% respectively.

On the coronavirus and as alluded to at the top, countries around the world continue to re-implement restrictions at the first uptick in cases. Zurich has announced new limits on social gatherings of up to 100 unless masks are worn and have mandated that masks must be worn within shops. This followed news that the Netherlands have issued 10-day quarantine measures on all travelers from Spain, as well as the majority of travelers from France. This comes as Spain posted four month highs in cases last week. In what may be a harbinger for the colder month’s ahead, Germany is planning to stop testing people returning from hotspots, citing a lack of testing capacity for the virus. Those travelers will still have to undergo quarantine measures and will have to get tested themselves in order to exit their quarantine early. These measures weighed on the STOXX 600 Travel and Leisure stocks (-0.09%), which did not see the same performance as their American counterparts on the upbeat vaccine news.

We did get further signs of stabilisation in new cases in the United States though, with Florida reporting the lowest number of new cases since mid-June yesterday, while New York state saw their infection rate fall to 0.66%, the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic. In a sign of further normalization following the recent uptick in cases, Apple announced plans to reopen some of the over 120 stores that they had reclosed during the summer outbreak. This could happen as soon as the end of this month. Across the other side of world, Singapore has identified a total of 58 cases in the country’s largest foreign workers dormitory which houses c. 16,000 people and as a precaution has placed another 4,800 workers from the same dormitory on stay-home notices. Meanwhile, South Korea added a further 280 cases in the past 24 hours up from 266 a day earlier and also ordered kindergarten, elementary, middle and high schools in the greater Seoul area to shift to online classes from partial attendance. Elsewhere, Qantas Airways said overnight that it will cut an additional 2,500 jobs due to the COVID impact on top of the earlier announced plans to eliminate 6,000 jobs or 20% of the workforce.

To the day ahead now, and data highlights from Germany include the Ifo business climate indicator for August along with the final reading of Q2’s GDP. Meanwhile in the US, we’ll get the FHFA house price index for June, new home sales or July, as well as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for August. Otherwise, San Francisco Fed President Daly will be speaking, and earnings releases include Salesforce, Medtronic, Intuit and Autodesk.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.06 POINTS OR 0.36%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 65.36 POINTS OR 0.26%   /The Nikkei closed UP 311.26 POINTS OR 1.35%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .50%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9131 /Oil UP TO 42.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and 45.57 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.9131 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9083 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA VS USA/PHASE ONE TRADE DEAL

Fat chance that this will ever come to fruition

(zerohedge)

US Sees “Progress” After Call With China Discussing Phase 1 Deal; Yuan Jumps

Well, that on again, off again between the US and China to discuss the “progress” on the Phase 1 of the trade deal finally took place tonight, with the US Trade Representative office announcing tonight that Ambassador Lighthizer and Secretary Mnuchin participated in “a regularly scheduled call this evening” with China’s Vice Premier Liu Hu to discuss implementation of the historic Phase One Agreement between the United States and China.

According to the USTR, the parties addressed steps that China has taken to effectuate structural changes called for by the Agreement that will ensure greater protection for intellectual property rights, remove impediments to American companies in the areas of financial services and agriculture, and eliminate forced technology transfer.

Considering that China has done virtually nothing so far, we can only imagine that this was the shortly US-China call in history.

 

Yet none of that matters, with algos only focusing on the last sentence of the statement according to which “the parties also discussed the significant increases in purchases of U.S. products by China as well as future actions needed to implement the agreement. Both sides see progress and are committed to taking the steps necessary to ensure the success of the agreement.

And while equity futures remain relatively muted, the yuan rose on the news of “progress” even as US and China sink ever deeper into Cold War 2.

END

CHINA VS USA

Another one arrested: NASA researcher, Texas A and M Prof, Cheng arrested

(zerohedge)

Texas A&M Prof, NASA Researcher Arrested For Alleged China Ties

Authored by Ben Zeisloft via Campus Reform,

Texas A&M professor and NASA researcher Zhengdong Cheng was arrested Sunday for alleged conspiracy, false statements, and wire fraud.

According to a United States Department of Justice press release,Cheng allegedly “willfully took steps to obscure his affiliations and collaboration with a Chinese University and at least one Chinese-owned company.”

Cheng’s research grant barred him from collaborating with Chinese entities.

Cheng allegedly provided false information to Texas A&M and NASA, allowing him to receive federal funds for a research grant. Cheng is associated with Guangdong University of Technology in China and other foreign institutions of higher education. He gained access to what the DOJ called “increased access to unique NASA resources, such as the International Space Station,” resulting in better positioning at Guangdong and other universities.

Assistant Attorney General for National Security John C. Demers explained that “Once again, we have witnessed the criminal consequences that can arise from undisclosed participation in the Chinese government’s talent program.” He said the Department of Justice will work to “expose the exploitation of our nation and our prized research institutions.”

Alan Kohler, assistant director of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Division, said that Cheng allegedly “knowingly deceived NASA officials about his association with Chinese owned companies and universities, willingly accepted U.S. government funding, and defrauded his university.”

FBI Houston Special Agent Perrye Turner stated that Texas A&M has provided “significant assistance through their partnership with us throughout this case.”

“We worked closely with the FBI on this case, and we gladly will work with them again as needed,” Texas A&M System Chancellor John Sharp said in a statement Monday.

No one in higher education takes security as seriously as we do at The Texas A&M University System. In fact, we have received several awards from the Department of Defense’s Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency, including one just last month.”

In late July, a professor at the University of Arkansas was indicted for receiving funds from China and failure to disclose ties to Chinese companies. Additionally, a researcher at the University of California-Davis was detained by American officials after it was discovered that she was an alleged active member of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.

end
CHINA VS USA/HUAWEI

“They’re In Survival Mode” – Huawei Scrambles To Stockpile Critical 5G Chips As US Ban Takes Effect

Washington’s latest round of sanctions on Huawei has been carefully crafted to cripple the Chinese telecom giant’s smartphone business. While the company has reportedly stockpiled up to 2 years of inventories for its telecom equipment business – a sign that it is probably already too late to stop the company from playing a critical role in the global rollout of 5G technology – the new restrictions announced on Aug. 17 have essentially barred Huawei from buying and using any and all microchips without a license from the US.

Since US technology and equipment is so critical to the global microchip supply chain (which is currently centered around Taiwan, China and the US), Huawei is scrambling to stockpile as many chips as it can before midnight on Sept. 14, which is when the new sanctions take effect.

Yesterday, we reported on how these sanctions aren’t just harming Huawei, they’re harming Huawei’s suppliers, including companies like MediaTek, which has seen its stock plunge since Washington announced the latest restrictions, dealing a major blow to Taiwan’s “Bandit Phone King”.

Now, Nikkei Asian Review reports that Huawei is in “survival mode,” trying to import as many handset chips as possible, even buying up unfinished “wafers” in the hopes that it can finish the chips in-house later.

Huawei Technologies and its suppliers are working around the clock to beat a U.S. government deadline for shipping crucial mobile chips to the Chinese smartphone maker, part of a Washington crackdown that industry insiders say has the company fighting for survival.

The leading Chinese smartphone maker is stockpiling 5G mobile processors, Wifi, radio frequency and display driver chips and other components from key chip developers including MediaTek, Realtek, Novatek, RichWave and others, sources told the Nikkei Asian Review.

While the Commerce Department has in the past moved to block shipments of chips to Huawei, suppliers are allowed to ship orders that were already in the pipeline when the restriction was announced. However, the orders must be delivered by midnight on Sept. 14, which is less than three weeks away.

Huawei last year managed to unseat Samsung as the world’s biggest smartphone maker. But analysts have warned that the company’s smartphone shipments could fall 75% next year. Above all, Huawei covets chips used in 5G smartphones, which are required for the company’s latest generation of phones, which are 5G compatible, a fact that was supposed to drive an ambitious upgrade cycle.

Even if the US manages to unseat Huawei from the smartphone league tables, other Chinese companies like Xiaomi would probably be the biggest beneficiaries, since Apple’s products are too costly for most consumers in the developing world.

But the boldness of the ban is a lobbyists nightmare, as Nikkei explained, and it even risks shaking the global tech industry to its core, just like Trump’s restrictions on WeChat almost did.

The scope and suddenness of the ban, Washington’s harshest yet against the company, has shaken the global tech industry.

“The new ban is so wide-reaching and the new rule came very abruptly with such short notice when Huawei and all the suppliers were still working to mitigate Washington’s previous expansion of restrictions in May.

“It’s quite shocking and unexpected to Huawei and many of its suppliers due to the short notice of the ban,” said another Huawei supplier executive familiar with the situation. “The whole supply chain is still bracing for collateral damage as many forecast orders will fall to zero after Sept. 15, and not every component can be sold to someone else. We are still digesting how big the downside could be for overall demand.”

The problem, the source added, is that there is “limited room to push forward too many advanced chips given the short notice of the deadline. …Only minor adjustments are possible now.”

The restriction is such a serious threat to Huawei because American technology and intellectual property – from software to equipment and materials — is a fundamental part of the global chip supply chain. Unless Washington revises this ban, the clock is ticking for suppliers to ship their final round of products without a license.

“What they want to secure most desperately are 5G smartphone processor chips and chips related to high-end smartphones now,” another source familiar with the matter said. “But if the U.S. does not lift the ban later, even if it secures some chips now, Huawei’s smartphone business will hit huge setbacks. It’s very difficult to design new products with inventories.”

Soon, the White House will have Huawei in an extremely difficult position…

“It’s almost impossible for Huawei and its key suppliers to get rid of U.S. tech any time soon,” Jeff Pu, a tech analyst with GF Securities, told Nikkei. “Huawei could still ship some 195 million units of smartphones this year thanks to the inventories it built up previously, but the company’s handset shipments for next year would be reduced to around 50 million units due to the Washington clampdown if the U.S. does not change or ease the rules later, according to our estimate.”

MediaTek told Nikkei that it will “fully and strictly” comply with global trade-related regulations and said it will not ship half-finished products, or chips that have not been tested and packaged to its customers.

Novatek likewise said it will follow the export control rules and is working closely with outside counsel for guidance. The display driver IC chip developer added that it is maintaining its previous financial guidance for the July-September period.

Largan said it “cannot comment on any specific client’s situation,” but added that any component shortage in the supply chain would affect its own shipments. “We continue to monitor the supply chain dynamics and relevant regulations.”

…No matter where they’re domiciled, Huawei’s suppliers will need to obtain a special license from the Commerce Department if they want to continue supplying Huawei. Right now, it’s unclear when – or even if – the administration will grant these waivers, leaving Huawei’s investors facing a deeply uncertain future.

Of course, if Huawei survives, it could set an example for other Chinese firms facing Washington’s wrath that it’s possible to resist and win

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

SPAIN

In Spain, citizens are beaten for not properly wearing face masks

(Watson/Summit News)

Women Beaten By Spanish Cops For Not Properly Wearing Face Masks

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A video clip out of Spain shows a police officer beating two woman with a truncheon because they are not properly wearing their face masks.

The footage shows two women involved in a confrontation with the female officer, who beats them across the arms and upper body.

One of the women appears to have suffered a serious injury to her arm as a result of the blows.

Although the women are wearing face masks, they appears to have committed the sin of letting them slip from fully covering their faces.

The police officer does not appear to be wearing a mask at all.

Spain has been one of the most draconian countries in Europe when it comes to the enforcement of coronavirus rules.

Numerous beaches across the country are being patrolled by police surveillance drones to enforce mask wearing and social distancing

During the actual lockdown, Spanish police were handing out €2,000 euro fines for “disrespecting a police officer” and people were also arrested for going “too frequently” to the grocery shop.

However, there still appears to be more resistance to a second lockdown in Spain compared to other European countries, largely because the country’s economy is extremely dependent on tourism.

 END

PARIS FRANCE

Riot police storm a Paris bar over lack of social distancing

(Watson/SummitNews)

Riot Police Storm Paris Bar Over No Social Distancing

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Footage out of Paris, France shows riot police storming a bar and beating people with truncheons because they were not properly ‘social distancing’.

The incident occurred during the Champions League final between Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich, which the bar-goers were watching on television.

Around a dozen fully kitted out riot cops raided the bar and violently removed people from the premises.

“According to Paris police officials, the crowd was dispersed because some people were not wearing face coverings or were failing to follow social distancing rules,” reports Sky News.

More than 200 people receive a police caution for not wearing face masks.

The incident is made even more bizarre by the fact that the people inside the bar were behaving peacefully, while actual riots were taking place across the rest of the city.

According to RT, the streets of the French capital “descended into chaos, with multiple incidents of vandalism and looting.”

You’d think maintaining basic law and order while protecting people and property from violent criminals would be a higher priority than ensuring people in a bar are standing far enough away from each other, but in the age of COVID hysteria apparently not.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

BELARUS/MINSK

Lukashenko is not buckling as protests grow in Belarus

(SouthFront)

Belarus ‘Apocalypse Now’: Gun-Toting Lukashenko Goes Full Colonel Kurtz As Protests Grow

Via Southfront.org,

On August 23rd, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko began presumably cosplaying Colonel Walter E. Kurtz from Apocalypse Now (or presumably Kurtz from the novel Heart of Darkness, depending on preference). With protesters in front of the presidential palace and calling for him to give up power and organize new elections, he arrived with the presidential helicopter.

Notably, the embattled president was wearing a bulletproof vest and had an automatic rifle in his arms. This can be seen on the footage below:

He could have also had no shirt on and only worn a bulletproof vest, but it appears that he has overlooked that detail.

There are several other videos of Lukashenko in the airplane, getting off it. Also of Lukashenko’s son – Nikolai, who is 15 years old.

He was also given an assault rifle by his father and was wearing a bulletproof vest. There are also security guards and soldiers protecting him.

 

“Col. Kurtz” from Apocalypse Now

Later on, a photograph was released of the crisis center showing Lukashenko, his son, and presumably a presidential press secretary. Those are all of the members in the crisis center present at the event, as can be seen on the photograph below.

The Independence Palace in Minsk was closed off with a cordon of security personnel. Lukashenko went to the barricades to thank the troops for protecting him.

He thanked the security officials:

“Thank you, you are handsome!,” he said

“We are with you until the end!,” they replied, in a ridiculous exchange.

And it would appear that not all of this is without reason. Reportedly, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus recorded an attempt to violate Belarusian airspace from Lithuania. This was reported in the department’s Telegram channel.

According to the ministry, the “provocation” took place on 23rd August at 19:30 in the village of Volkovschina, Oshmyany region, which borders Lithuania.

“A probe of eight balloons with anti-state symbols was launched from the adjacent territory,” the message said.

As such, it appears that the Baltic states believe that Belarus under Lukashenko is so far ‘lost’ that it is like North Korea and needs opposition leaflets dropped from across the border.

The flight of balloons was suppressed without the use of weapons thanks to the crews of MI-24 helicopters from the air defense forces on duty, the Defense Ministry said.

And to reinforce the notion that no external pressure is being exerted on Lukashenko and his aides, approximately 50,000 people formed a human chain from Vilnius to the Belarusian border to express solidarity with protests in the neighboring country.

The president of the “Baltic superpower” was present to support the expression of solidarity to the Belarusian opposition.

This also took place on August 23rd, which is the anniversary of when in 1989 over a million people formed a human chain spanning Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to demand an end to the Soviet occupation.

The Freedom Way was followed by a concert and TV marathon in the courtyard of Medininkai Castle. A fundraiser collected money for the BY Help organisation that “has been helping injured, detained and persecuted Belarusians and their families since 2017.”

“Freedom is not only a fundamental human right but also a nation’s fundamental right. It’s also a daily commitment to defend it from any attempt on it by those who would replace freedom with darkness, oppression ands fear,” said Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda.

“Thirty years ago Lithuania broke its shackles of oppression by forming the Baltic Way with its Latvian and Estonian brothers and showing the world that we are free and, first of all, free in our spirit,” he said.

“Today, time has come for our Belarusian brothers to say the dear word ‘Freedom’.”

No foreign meddling at all…

Lukashenko and his government clearly demonstrate that they are not going to submit to the foreign pressure and surrender the power to the pro-Western opposition. Meanwhile, the political and security situation in the country has been deteriorating.

END

6.Global Issues

The World Food Program needs emergency fund to prevent famines

(zerohedge)

 

WFP Requests $5 Billion In Emergency Funds To Prevent ‘Famine Of Biblical Proportions’

Readers may recall we outlined months back how the COVID-19 pandemic increased the risk of famine across the world’s more impoverished regions (see: Hunger Pandemic: Visualizing COVID-19’s Effect On Global Food Insecurity). 

While virus cases and deaths dominate headlines, other humanitarian crises also need attention, that is, an emerging “famine of biblical proportions” that threatens much of the world, United Nations World Food Program (WFP) Director David Beasley told TASS News last weekend in an interview.

Beasley said the WFP is requesting $5 billion in emergency funds within the next six months that will help in the effort to thwart a global famine.

“All the data we have, including WFP’s forecast of an 80% increase in the number of food-insecure people – from 140 million before the pandemic to 270 million by the end of this year – points to a real catastrophe, a famine of biblical proportions, “he said.

The dramatic rise in the number of people who don’t have the means to feed themselves because of depressionary unemployment, supply chain breakdowns, and crop failures is set to cause long-term economic damage that could prevent a vibrant economic recovery.

Beasley said, “it is clear that social tensions will escalate, migration will increase, conflicts will expand, and hunger can affect those who have not experienced it before.”

 

David Beasley

Even in the US, a developed world economy, tens of millions of folks have gone hungry, now relying on government aid and food banks for survival. He noted that countries in the 2008 financial crash with a “stronger social protection system” were less impacted by famine.

WFP projections show significant increases in malnourished people in Latin America, countries in Eastern and Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, had a doubling of the number of people going hungry in a short period.

“World hunger is already sky-high, and if we do not act immediately, many will die, children will suffer the consequences of malnutrition for many years to come, and the whole world will be thrown back, having lost all the gains in the fight against hunger of the last decade. Will be incredibly high, we need to act quickly and wisely, balancing immediate relief and long-term recovery,” Beasley said.

He added: “WFP’s mission is to provide food to 138 million people in 2020, the largest humanitarian operation in history. And this unprecedented crisis requires an incredible amount of money.”

All of this makes you wonder if the famine warnings are just hype or if the virus-induced downturn has really sent the world into years of crisis.

END
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/SWEDEN 
Other countries are now rethinking that lockdown do not work
(zerohedge)

As Sweden’s COVID-19 Measures Hint At Herd Immunity, US Experts Rethink Lockdown Strategies

As Sweden continues to enjoy a falling COVID-19 infection rate, leading health experts have suggested the country’s decision not to lock down or require masks has resulted in herd immunity, according to MarketWatch.

Strict rules do not work as people seem to break them,” said Arne Elofsson, a professor of biometrics at Stockholm University, adding “Sweden is doing fine.”

Anders Tegnell, an epidemiologist involved in managing Sweden’s pandemic, thinks masks give a false sense of security: “The belief that masks can solve our problem is very dangerous.”

Prime Minister Stefan Löfven thinks voluntary social-distancing rules and not closing schools but banning gatherings of more than 50 people has been the right approach.

Now there are quite a few people who think we were right,” he told a newspaper. “The strategy that we adopted, I believe is right — to protect individuals, limit the spread of the infection.” –MarketWatch

According to the European CDC, Sweden has an infection rate of 37 cases per 100,000 people – far lower than France’s 60 per 100,000 and Spain’s 152.7 cases per 100,000 despite imposing months of lockdowns of varying degrees.

And while the New York Times (in July) and MarketWatch (in June) said that Sweden’s economy is doing ‘just as bad’ as countries which imposed lockdowns, the BBC pointed out earlier this month that Sweden’s economy ‘only’ contracted 8.6% in the April-June period vs. the previous three months, while the European Union saw a contraction of 11.9% over the same period based on newer economic data.

Meanwhile, lockdowns and the ensuing economic fallout have had a significant impact on mental health.

A new approach?

As Sweden’s model for dealing with COVID-19 appears to have survived its trial by fire, other countries are now rethinking blanket lockdowns as they weigh the economic impacts against health risks, according to the Wall Street Journal. Some of their thinking agrees with Sweden’s, while several points of disagreement exist. The Journal also notes that “Sweden’s current infection and death rates are as low as the rest of Europe’s, suggesting to some experts the country may be close to herd immunity.

In a nutshell, via The Journal:

Decide on a plan and stick with it

According to Nobel laureate economist Paul Romer, the US couldn’t decide on whether we were “going for mitigation or suppression,” who added that mitigation efforts to achieve herd immunity means accepting hundreds of thousands of additional deaths, and that a total lockdown strategy “doesn’t make sense unless you’re going to stick with it as long as it takes.”

New Zealand – an island nation which conducted draconian lockdowns for two months, were able to claim that their strict measures worked until an outbreak earlier this month resulted in another round of widespread restrictions.

“We’re harming the economy, waffling back and forth between what is right, what is wrong with a slow drift of companies closing their doors for good,” said Harvard epidemiologist, Dr. Michael Mina, who said that because the US couldn’t decide on a path forward, the result was a “complete disaster.”

Masks are good, based on results

Despite conflicting information from the World Health Organization and CDC on masks, countries and cities which quickly donned face masks did better than those who did not, such as the city of Jena, Germany vs. similar cities which did not require them, according to a study for the IZA Institute of Labor Economics, which concluded that masks resulted in a 40-60% reduction in infections.

 

Via the Wall Street Journal

Meanwhile Goldman Sachs estimates that a universal mask mandate vs. further lockdowns could salvage 5% of GDP.

Ramp up testing

According to Paul Romer, the economist, ramping up testing could enable a safe reopening before a vaccine is developed, and could restore $1,000 in economic activity for every $10 spent on tests.

Harvard’s Dr. Mina suggested that rapid, though less accurate paper-strip tests that can detect the virus within minutes could be used every other day to help suppress the disease.

Dr. Mina and his team have designed a method of reopening based on frequency of contacts and vulnerability to COVID-19 based on five demographic groups and 66 economic sectors. Businesses would reopen and adhere to guidelines on social distancing, working from home, and hygiene. Schools would reopen, masks are required, and large gatherings such as religious services, indoor sports and bars would stay closed.

According to McKinsey & Co., if schools don’t reopen until next January, the lost year of education will set back low-income children with a 4% reduction in lifetime earnings.

Mina also notes that “super-spreader” events – particularly in dense, indoor gatherings with singing, shouting and talking (think: sporting events, nightclubs, bars, and church services), contribute disproportionately to infections – with bars and restaurants accounting for 16% of COVID-19 clusters in Japan (defined by five or more cases). Workplace clusters contribute to 11% of infections, while bars, restaurants and casinos were traced to 32% of infections.

We’re on the cusp of an economic catastrophe,” according to Harvard economist James Stock, who is working with Dr. Mina on models which would avoid a surge in deaths without engaging in an economically devastating lockdown. “We can avoid the worst of that catastrophe by being disciplined.”

Emphasize the reopening of the highest economic benefit, lowest risk endeavors,” he continued, adding “Economic shutdowns are a blunt and very costly tool.”

end

Yesterday and today’s major events discussed.

(Michael Every)

Rabobank: “So Stocks Went Up Again”

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The ‘conventional’ nature of things

So, US stocks went up again.

That was about as much of a surprise as there being American flags at the online Republican National Convention, which being the governing party is obviously taking a very upbeat tone while warning how terrible everything will be if they aren’t in power in a few months’ time. (The inverse of last week, where at the DNC everything was seen as terrible, but capable of being wonderful if they are in office in January 2021. That’s called politics, folks.)

Why did stocks go up? Bloomberg reports the US-China trade deal is on track after a brief phone call. That’s as a NASA researcher is arrested on allegations of fraud related to China and as President Trump released a 50-point plan for what he will do if re-elected, which includes “END OUR RELIANCE ON CHINA; Bring Back 1 Million Manufacturing Jobs from China; Tax Credits for Companies that Bring Back Jobs from China; Allow 100% Expensing Deductions for Essential Industries like Pharmaceuticals and Robotics who Bring Back their Manufacturing to the United States; No Federal Contracts for Companies who Outsource to China; Hold China Fully Accountable for Allowing the Virus to Spread around the World”. Presumably those who bought CNY on the first headline didn’t read the other reports.

Why else did stocks go up? Reports the Trump White House will press ahead with the release of a Covid-19 vaccine even before the US election on 3 November. Aren’t equities where they are because of the off-the-charts level of fiscal and monetary support that has been pumped in due to the virus? Why should a sudden recovery from that threat be good for stocks if it means stimulus can then be wound down far sooner? Likewise, aren’t stocks being propped up by the Covid trend from an awful “New Normal” to a worse “Next Normal” that sees the destruction of small and medium-sized businesses and the further leviathan-like dominance of a handful of mega-cap, mega-corporations? Wouldn’t the ‘sudden end’ to the virus suggest that dynamic could be reversed? Or do we get to keep the mega-winners and the stimulus and lose Covid-19? Is that the stage of all-must-have-prizes we are now at?

Looking at this Fed, the answer is probably ‘Yes’; but they can lay out their thinking a little better at the virtual Jackson Hole retreat later in the week; which will be even less fun than the DNC or the RNC – and that is really saying something. However, it’s also where the actual power brokers arguably sit. That’s why the markets can listen to narratives that all is bad/good now and that all will be good/bad in mere months and just keep rallying anyway – because the narrative is being set elsewhere, at a convention where nobody wraps themselves in any flags.

That’s just the way the technocratic, central-bank-focused system is set up (or the ostensible absence of politics, folks)… and why the threat of “populism” that want to change to a system where politicians matter more is so real and so revolutionary for the markets. Not that the populists won’t want all to have prizes too, I guess.

[As an aside on the prizes issue, without naming names, three large firms are to drop out of the Dow Jones and will be replaced by three others. That’s part of the natural rotation of that index, but it also underlines the survivor bias: you’re in because you win. Yes, that is support to the view that it’s “always time to buy stocks”….but only the winners, please. You should also always choose to be a guitar player rather than a dentist as a sensible career option: but only if you are going to be the next Eddie Van Halen or Eric Clapton, etc.]

Overall, we are still deep into bad news is good news and good news is good news territory –and I don’t mean the RNC– which in and of itself tells you something about the ‘conventional’ nature of things.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Coronovirus/update/globe

 

African COVID-19 Cases Hit 1.2 Million As Dr. Fauci Urges FDA To ‘Carefully Vet’ Vaccines: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Africa COVID cases near 1.2 million
  • Deaths in England + Wales hit 20-week low
  • Germany to extend benefit program
  • German infections remain close to 4-month high
  • Russia reported 4,696 new cases
  • Usain Bolt tests positive
  • Dr. Fauci warns FDA must thoroughly vet COVID vaccines
  • Dr. Hahn walks back endorsement of FDA-approved plasma treatment

* * *

President Trump and the RNC placed the GOP president’s response to the coronavirus pandemic front-and-center during last night’s opening salvo for what’s set to be a scaled down version of the quadrenniel Republican Convention, as Trump and his supporters praised Trump’s travel restrictions, “Project Warp Speed” and other measures for helping the US fight off the virus.

But on Tuesday morning, the focus shifts back to Europe and Asia, as yet another case of COVID-19 reinfection has been confirmed – this time, in Belgium, making it the first such case in Europe, following yesterday’s confirmed case of reinfection documented in Hong Kong.

The disheartening discovery comes as Belgium grapples with one of the Continent’s worst active outbreaks.

In the UK, deaths in England and Wales fell to a 21 week-low after reporting just 139 virus-linked fatalities during the week ended Aug. 14. That’s jus 1.5% of the region’s total fatalities, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.

Germany, which has seen new case numbers climb in recent weeks, will likely extend a state wage-support program, according to Carsten Schneider, a caucus manager for the Social Democratic Party, who made the claim during an interview with Deutschlandfunk radio.

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz proposed extending the job-preserving subsidies to 24 months last week, arguing that the measure would cost the government an extra €10 billion euros ($11.8 billion).

Meanwhile, Germany’s new coronavirus cases increased at a pace close, but just below, Sunday’s 4-month high, while its closely watched infection rate dropped back below 1, indicting that the pandemic has shifted back into “contraction” territory.

The Robert Koch Institute reported 1,628 new infections in the 24 hours through Tuesday morning, raising its total to 236,122. The daily gain compared with 633 on Monday and 1,737 on Saturday. That marked the highest number since April. One death was also reported, lifting the overall number of deaths to 9,276.

Officials from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition, expected to meet later on Tuesday in Berlin, have “always taken the sensible path in the end on labor-market and social policy,” he said.

Bavarian Premier Markus Soeder warned Tuesday that Germany risks a return to the peak levels of daily new cases close to 7,000 seen at the end of March and beginning of April, and ruled out easing restrictions on movement and social gatherings.

After the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine project released some more optimistic sounding updates touting the possibility of winning approval for the experimental vaccine by the end of the year, AstraZeneca announced that its first participants have been dosed in a Phase 1 trial of AZD7442, a COVID-19 drug created by combining two monoclonal antibodies harvested from sick patients.

As infection rates fall in Hong Kong…

…the special administrative region said it would allow dining-in until 9 pm, while cinemas, beauty parlors and outdoors sports venues will start reopening Friday, according to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan.

The government will also allow residents to go maskless in parks and while exercising outdoors. The present suite of social distancing measures will be extended to Aug. 27, per Bloomberg.

Elsewhere, while the outbreak across the world’s poorest continent hasn’t been nearly as severe as many feared the, Coronavirus outbreak in Africa is closing in on 1.2 million cases and 30,000 deaths ((with nearly 28,000 confirmed so far), according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. The total number of infections stands at 1,195,297, including 27,783 fatalities and 921,783 recoveries, according to the latest update. Southern Africa is the continent’s worst-hit regio,  with 652,400 cases and 14,100 deaths, and South Africa is the worst hit country. But even countries that demonstrated a surprisingly robust response, like Uganda, are starting to see problems, according to Al Jazeera.

In sports news, Champion sprinter Usain Bolt tested positive for coronavirus just days after hosting a ‘mask-less’ 34th birthday bash.

Russia, meanwhile, reported 4,696 new cases on Tuesday, pushing its national total to 966,189, the world’s 4th-largest, cementing its lead over South Africa (which currently holds the No. 5 spot). 120 Russians died, pushing the death toll to 16,568.

Finally, while millions of Americans were focused on the RNC last night, FDA Director Stephen Hahn took to twitter to recant a statement he made late Sunday evening, when he parroted President Trump’s claim that treatments based on survivor plasma had already proven to reduce mortality by 35%, which Trump used to justify pressuring the FDA for its emergency approval.

Not only did Hahn walk back these claims…

…but Dr. Hahn’s decision to acquiesce to Trump’s demands has even prompted other national health-care figures, like National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases head Dr. Fauci, to issue warnings about the FDA’s credibility. Dr. Fauci said the agency must thoroughly vet all vaccine candidates, since a rushed job could risk doing even more damage, and destroying the agency’s credibility in the eyes of the public. He told Reuters giving approval to one potential vaccine would make it “difficult, if not impossible for other vaccines to enroll people in their trials.”

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1815 UP .0021 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.42 UP 0.424 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3133   UP   0.0063  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3207 DOWN .0011 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 21 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 12.06 POINTS OR 0.36% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 65.36 POINTS OR 0.26%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,50%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 65.36 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 12.06 POINTS OR 0.36%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP. 50% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 311.36  POINTS OR 1.35%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1925.65

silver:$26.46-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.687% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.39 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 93.17 DOWN 13 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.41% UP 6 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.03%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.39%//UP 7 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:1,03   UP 8 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 64 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.42% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.45% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1818  UP     .0025 or 25 basis points

USA/Japan: 106.50 UP .496 OR YEN DOWN 50  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3126 UP .0055 POUND UP 55  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 20 basis points to 1.3198

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.9128    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.91046  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  7.4036 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at =03%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.706 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.412 UP 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.174 DOWN 12  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 32.86  0.97%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 11.97 POINTS OR .09%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 7.03 POINTS 0.14%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 0.50 POINTS or 0.01%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 38.77 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 43.00 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil:45.87 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:   75.235  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.64 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 64 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.42 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  43.37//

 

 

BRENT :  45.88

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.688…up 3 basis points

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.40…up 4 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1834 ( UP 41   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:10637 UP .371 (YEN DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.01 DOWN 29 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3148 DOWN 77  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 7.3966

 

 

the Russian rouble 75.3285   DOWN 0.75 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 75 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3177 UP 41 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.43%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 60.02 POINTS OR 0.21%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 86.76 POINTS OR 0.76%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  22.02 CLOSED DOWN .35

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.233%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Nasdaq Hits New Record High As Confidence Crashes To 6 Year Lows

“Probably nothing…”

Source: Bloomberg

If you felt like “this is madness,” you’re not alone…

As Sven Henrich noted earlier:

As indices, but not the market, keep crawling higher on the unprecedented market expansion in select stocks imbalances are building that suggest reversion risk is building. Whether this reversion risk sets up for a buyable dip or a change in market character remains to be seen, but the more disconnected charts get the larger the reversion risk in my view.

Call me old fashioned but I still subscribe to an apparently forgotten scientific theory known as gravity.

And be clear, the market cap expansions we’re witnessing in 2020 off of the March lows are without precedent

While yesterday saw Nasdaq (growth) panic sold at the cash market open after an overnight pump, today’s price action was opposite-land – after overnight weakness, Nasdaq was panic bid at the open and never looked back…

 

Yesterday’s momo-value reversal eased a little today (value sold, momo bid)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

AAPL dared to trade lower on the day unable to get back above $500 after its split date…

 

And if you wondered just how insane things have got – there’s this – AAPL’s put-call skew has never been lower (more skewed to levered longs than any protection ever…)

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar looks like it is coiling up for a move (perhaps into Powell’s Thursday speech) with lower highs and higher lows today…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were higher on the day, but ended well off the early spike highs intraday reversing after Europe closed (with the long-end underperforming)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields briefly jumped above 70bps before a bid came in…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were clubbed like a baby seal today…

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin back below $11,500…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil outperformed in the commodity complex today (ahead of tonight’s inventory data, amid huge shut-ins for US crude production in the Gulf. Gold was flat…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields pushed back below -1.00% tpday, remaining decoupled from gold (as the recenthiostoric correlation regime is weakening)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, shit’s not cheap!!!

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

What to expect from Jackson Hole;

If Powell Announces “Average Inflation Targeting” On Thursday, Rates Will Be On Hold For 42 Years

The media and markets are on high alert ahead of Thursday’s virtual “Jackson Hole” symposium (which this year will be held via webcast), whose highlight will be Jerome Powell speech titled “Monetary Policy Framework Review” and which wraps up an examination which started in early 2019 among both among central bank officials and the public, during a series of open events, on what policy should look like in the future. It will be, as CNBC puts it, a “profoundly consequential” speech, changing how the Fed views inflation, and specifically will outline the central bank’s most active efforts ever to spur inflation back to a healthy level.

Putting aside the fact that inflation as measured by the CPI and its often grotesque hedonic adjustments, has been for the past three decades politically suppressed at the CPI level precisely to allow the Fed enough buffer to conduct the loosest monetary policy possible without hitting political interference for running the economy “hot” (as discussed in “The Politics of Inflation“,  “The Muzzle on Inflation” and “Lessons from the 1980 “Inflation” Virus“), there has been speculation that as part of its framework overhaul, the Fed may need a new working definition of inflation, ideally one which captures the dramatic divergence between runaway inflation in asset prices (bad inflation) on one hand and muted wage pressures and real economy prices (good inflation) as shown in the chart below.

But even without a comprehensive overhaul of how inflation is measured, the market appears convinced that average inflation targeting (AIT) could be announced on Thursday with new a policy formally adopted on the 16 September FOMC meeting. As such, Powell will likely give an overview of the coming changes, the thinking behind them, and why other options such as negative interest rates and yield curve control might remain on the back burner for future consideration.

So will Powell formally unveil AIT? Well, according to a new report from Bank of America, Powell won’t go that far, and will fall short of formally adopting AIT, instead acknowledging that a period of inflation overshoot is necessary to produce an average inflation rate of 2% over a cycle. This, according to BofA’s Ralph Axel “could take the form of officially changing the 2% inflation target to a range of 1.5-2.5%, or codifying that it will officially seek periods of inflation overshoots on the order of, say, 50-100bp to achieve its 2% goal on average through the cycles.”

To be sure, Fed officials have recently supported overshooting the target: in July, Governor Brainard said “refraining from liftoff until inflation reaches 2 percent could lead to some modest temporary overshooting, which would help offset the previous underperformance.” Others were just as vocal: Chicago Fed President Evans recently noted that the Fed did not need to raise rates until inflation headed to 2.5%. Dallas Fed President Kaplan would be willing to let inflation rise to the order of 2.25-2.3%, and St. Louis Fed President Bullard pointed out that there was greater sympathy at the Fed for overshooting 2%.

So why not an explicit AIT policy? Because according to BofA, that would entail picking a specific time period over which PCE inflation is required to average 2% before beginning a policy normalization (hiking) process. This is a problem, because in simulations conducted by the BofA rates team, it found this could in require the Fed to remain on hold for 42 years!

Some more details:

If price level targeting was implemented when we hit the zero lower bound in late 2008, and we assume the price level was 100 at that time, the price level now would be 117 versus a target 2% yoy price level of 122 (Chart 2). At this point, it would take 42 years to reach the price level target if core PCE remained at 2.1% yoy, or just 2 years if core PCE rocketed to 4.0% yoy. While these scenarios are extreme, they demonstrate the large variation in Fed policy regimes that could result from adoption of price targeting.

Alternatively, the Fed can “simply” supercharge core PCE to 4% annually and reach its target in just 2 years, but by the end of that period the Marriner Eccles building would have burned down as the anti-inflation riots finally set their sights on the true target.

Just as importantly, explicit AIT could also cripple the Fed’s already waning credibility, not least of all because “it would also bring up difficult issues around the appropriate time period to calculate averages and the maximum realized inflation rates the Fed would tolerate while the average climbs higher.”

Ultimately, BofA concludes that an explicit policy of AIT could greatly complicate both Fed communication and logistics. This would risk a reduction in the Fed’s credibility, which is already vulnerable given:

  • the market’s pricing of inflation expectations well below 2% for the next 30 years, and
  • its decade-long miss in achieving its inflation mandate

Then there is the question of just what mere “forward guidance” and jawboning can do when the Fed is already at the limit of its firepower, and according to some has even crossed into illegal territory by purchasing corporate bonds. In other words, as Axel cautions, “the market is overhyping the Fed’s ability to change the course of inflation in the future, under any policy.” Here’s why:

To begin with, interest rates are already close to 0 across the entire Treasury curve. The principle of monetary easing is to increase aggregate demand by lowering the cost of funding, theoretically increasing borrowing for spending and investment. But at the current low rates, even if the Fed were to set all Treasury rates to 0bp, how many new borrowers and spenders would emerge? This is the problem of the zero lower bound that has worried the Fed and other central banks for years. The incremental ability to ease, without adopting deeply negative rates, is limited.

More important than even the Fed’s limited firepower to lower interest rates under a new framework is the fact there are larger structural forces outside of the Fed’s control that have an arguably larger impact on inflation and inflation expectations. Here a full list would include:

  • record debt
  • demographics
  • globalization
  • technological advances
  • government policy
  • de-unionization
  • consumer perception

While all of these factors remain in flux, and while some are arguably changing directions (for example, de-globalization may become a new trend), BofA concedes that it is unlikely monetary policy of central banks is the main driver of inflation. In addition, as the next chart from BofA shows, 81% of the variance in inflation measures across the US, Europe, and UK are explained by a single factor, which implies inflation is driven by global forces.

So where does that leave the Fed, which has on more than occasion called inflation a “puzzle” in recent years. Former Chair Yellen in one of her last speeches as Fed chair noted that our understanding of inflation may be flawed by models that are misspecified and our inability to predict trends in sectors such as health care and housing which are large components of the price index. More notably, the complete breakdown of the Phillips curve, inversely relating unemployment rates to wages, has long mystified the Fed and has caused them to rethink long-held concepts such as NAIRU (the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment).

In summary, Bank of America believes that the market is putting too much stock into the Fed’s power to increase inflation expectations, i.e., to widen breakevens between TIPS and nominal Treasuries, with a change in its official policy framework. It’s also why the bank has exited its long breakeven position “no longer see wider breakevens as offering any added value over a simpler short duration position.”

As the chart above show, breakevens are now where they were when the Fed was actively tightening monetary policy (something which we know won’t happen for a long, long time) and just below the long-term average from before the financial crisis of 1.90%; Meanwhile breakevens face other hurdles: as BofA explains, “if rates rise, which would likely be the case if an effective vaccine became available, we would expect breakevens to widen along with rates based on their historical betas. And the opposite would be true if the downturn becomes longer and deeper than anticipated with both rates and breakevens falling.”

But the punchline is that the bank’s rates team does not expect a structural widening of breakevens or curve steepening to come merely from the Fed’s announcement on policy framework changes; in fact it is quite likely that much if not all of the Fed’s AIT is already priced into the market and if anything breakevens will slide as the news is sold.

In conclusion, BofA suspects “the market bar is too high for the Fed to deliver on its new framework, and breakevens may be poised for a short-term decline around Jackson Hole” especially since the Fed remains unwilling to adopt game-changing policies such as negative interest rates or price/GDP targeting. For that to happen, a new and even more powerful market crash would be necessary but that’s a topic for another article.

end

ii)Market data/USA

As expected, mortgage delinquencies soar as so many are out of work

(zerohedge)

Mortgage Delinquencies Soar To Decade High

Readers may recall last week we outlined the dam of pent up mortgage delinquencies continued to crack, with the share of delinquent Federal Housing Administration’s loans hitting a record high in the second quarter.

With millions of Americans out of work due to the virus-induced recession, their personal income has become overly reliant on Trump stimulus checks, as we’ve outlined, a quarter of all personal income now comes from the government.

fiscal cliff hit the economy on August 01, when the program to distribute stimulus checks to tens of millions of broke Americans ran out of funds. Even though President Trump signed an executive order to fund additional rounds of checks, only one state, as of August 21, has paid out new jobless benefits and paused evictions as stimulus talks in Washington have failed to materialize into a deal.

Leading up to the fiscal cliff in July, financial data firm Black Knight reported the number of serious mortgage delinquencies catapulted to a ten-year high.

The number of homes with mortgage payments past due by 90 days or more rose by 376,000 in July to a total of 2.25 million. Serious mortgage delinquencies have jumped by 1.8 million since July 2019, a decade high, not seen since the last financial crisis.

Black Knight’s July 2020 Month-End Mortgage Performance Statistics: 

Top 5 States By 90+ Days Delinquent Percentage: 

Black Knight said, “foreclosure activity continues to remain muted due to widespread moratoriums; though starts rose for the month, overall activity remains near record lows.”

Cracks in the dam of pent up mortgage delinquencies are becoming larger as the presidential election nears. Still, millions of folks are unable to service mortgages, remain protected from foreclosure by the federal forbearance program, in which borrowers with pandemic-related hardships can delay payments for as much as a year without penalty. What happens when the program finally ends, and all the payments that were deferred come due could result in housing market weakness.

The prospect of a tidal wave of foreclosures could be ahead as the mortgage industry and government’s policies were merely short-term measures to push a housing crisis off until after the election.

If homeowners still can’t find jobs as the labor market recovery falters, then their ability to service future mortgage becomes impossible. At the same time, deep economic scarring is being realized, resulting in the shape of the economic recovery transforming from a “V” to a “Nike Swoosh.”

Even with part of the housing market booming, that is primarily due to folks ditching metro areas for suburbia and ultra-low mortgage rates pulling demand forward in such a massive way that today’s boom will lead to much lower activity in the future.

Think about it, millions of folks still can’t pay their mortgage, and many of them still can’t find jobs. But, of course, none of that matters as President Trump distracts the sheep and points to how well the Nasdaq is doing.

end

USA home prices slowed in June as expected

(zerohedge)

US Home Price Growth Slowed In June

Following May’s unexpected slowdown in growth, analysts expect June’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index to show further deceleration, and it did – but notably worse than expected.

The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price rose 3/46% YoY in June (the latest data), well below expectations of a +3.60% and May’s 3.61% prints…

Source: Bloomberg

And it seems that even with mortgage rates hitting record lows, prices have stopped appreciating so fast…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this emblematic of the exodus from the cities (highest cost housing?)

end

USA consumer confidence re-plunges in August: 6 year lows

(zerohedge)

US Consumer Confidence Re-Plunges In August To 6 Year Lows

Consumer confidence was expected to rise modestly in August (as hope and a record high stock market trump reality once again), but instead it tumbled to 84.8 from a revised lower 91.7 in July (and well below expectations of a 93.0 print)…

  • The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased sharply from 95.9 to 84.2.
  • The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – declined from 88.9 in July to 85.2 this month.

This is the lowest headline print since June 2014…

Source: Bloomberg

“The Present Situation Index decreased sharply, with consumers stating that both business and employment conditions had deteriorated over the past month. Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook, and their financial prospects, also declined and continues on a downward path. Consumer spending has rebounded in recent months but increasing concerns amongst consumers about the economic outlook and their financial well-being will likely cause spending to cool in the months ahead.”

– Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement.

The share of consumers saying jobs are hard to get jumped to 25.2% from 20.1%. ..

 

Source: Bloomberg

About 30% of consumers said they expect better economic conditions six months from now, down from 31.6% in July.

The report points to a bumpy economic recovery as Americans grapple with high unemployment and uncertainty about future federal stimulus, with a new version of jobless aid just starting to reach Americans.

Once again the jaws of un-reality snap shut as confidence catches down to savings rates…

 

It appears the double-dip in confidence is here.

end

 

US New Home Sales Surge In July, Highest Annual Spike Since 1996

After June’s continued resurgence in US home sales, July is expected to see a significant slowdown in that recovery, with new home sales expected to rise 1.8% MoM. Instead, new home sales soared a stunning 13.9% MoM. This means new home sales in the US rose 36.3% YoY – the most since 1996…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Driven by and 81.4% increase in Midwest New home sales, highest since Jan 1992

New Home Sales SAAR is 901k (against expectations of 790k), the most since Jan 2007…

 

Source: Bloomberg

Median new home price rose 7.2% y/y to $330,600; average selling price at $391,300

 

Is this more evidence of the mass exodus from cities?

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Sunday night/Kenosha/Wisconsin

Wisconsin Governor sends in National Guard to Kenosha after police shoot an unarmed black mane, Blake

(Stieber/Epoch times)

Wisconsin Governor Sending National Guard To Kenosha

 

National Guard members are rushing to Kenosha to help patrol city streets in the wake of rioting overnight Sunday

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers announced that 125 members will be in the city by Monday night “to help protect critical infrastructure and assist in maintaining public safety and the ability of individuals to peacefully protest.”

Evers, a Democrat, said the “limited mobilization” was ordered based on requests from local officials.

National Guard members will be focused “on supporting the needs of local first responders to protect critical infrastructure, such as utilities and fire stations, and to ensure Kenoshians are able to assemble safely,” he added in a statement released by his office.

Maj. Gen. Paul Knapp, Wisconsin’s adjutant general, said soldiers and airmen are prepared to help preserve public safety.

 

A group of Black Lives Matter protesters hold a rally on the steps of the Kenosha County Courthouse, which was closed because of damage inflicted by rioters just hours earlier, in Kenosha, Wis., on Aug. 24, 2020. (Morry Gash/AP Photo)

In a separate video announcement, Evers urged people gathering to protest to remain peaceful and wear masks because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chaos erupted in Kenosha, a town of some 100,000 on Lake Michigan south of Milwaukee, late Sunday after police officers shot Jacob Blake while responding to a 911 call.

 

Rioters smash windows at the Kenosha County Administration Building during unrest following the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis., on Aug. 23, 2020. (Mike De Sisti/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via USA TODAY via Reuters)

Rioters burned a number of businesses and looted others.

Law enforcement officers in riot gear were seen Monday protecting buildings from further harm.

Kenosha County officials said both the courthouse and a nearby administration building would be closed for at least one day because of damage inflicted by rioters.

The county later declared a statement of emergency and said a curfew will begin at 8 p.m. and run through 7 a.m. Tuesday, east of I-94.

“The public needs to be off the streets for their safety,” officials said in a press release.

 

A protestor shines a flashlight in the direction of Kenosha County Sheriffs Deputies outside the Kenosha Police Department in Kenosha, Wis., late Aug. 23, 2020. (Mike De Sisti/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via USA TODAY via Reuters)

Democrats immediately condemned the shooting even though the video clip that circulated widely online was just 19 seconds.

“This was not an accident. This wasn’t bad police work. This felt like some sort of vendetta being taken out on a member of our community,” Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, a Democrat, said during a virtual briefing. He claimed that Blake was “trying to de-escalate” the situation.

“Yet another Black American is a victim of excessive force,” Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden said in a statement.

 

Garbage and dump trucks were set ablaze by rioters near the Kenosha County Courthouse where they had been set up to prevent damage to the building, in Kenosha, Wis., on Aug. 23, 2020. (Sean Krajacic/Kenosha News via AP)

Republican President Donald Trump was being briefed before noon on the matter, the White House said.

Other officials asked the public to wait until an investigation is finished into the shooting.

“I support a full and thorough investigation into the events leading up to yesterday’s officer-involved shooting in Kenosha,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said in a statement. “While emotions are understandably running high in the Kenosha community and elsewhere, I urge any demonstrators to remain peaceful and give our justice system the opportunity to work.”

 

Burned out vehicles are seen in Kenosha, Wis., Aug. 24, 2020. Many of the cars were set on fire during protests Sunday night after a police shooting in the city. (Morry Gash/AP Photo)

“Until that investigation is completed, we ask that you withhold prejudgment about the incident and please let the process take place,” Pete Deates, president of the Kenosha Professional Police Association, a police union, said in a statement to news outlets.

“As always, the video currently circulating does not capture all the intricacies of a highly dynamic incident,” he added.

 

Pemonstrators march in protest of last night’s police shooting, in Kenosha, Wis., on Aug. 24, 2020. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

The video shows two officers following Blake as the man reached into a vehicle before being shot.

In a brief statement, the Kenosha Police Department said officers were responding to a domestic incident.

After the shooting, officers provided immediate aid to Blake and he was taken via Flight for Life to a hospital in Milwaukee, the police said. Blake was in serious condition.

The Wisconsin Department of Justice’s Division of Criminal Investigation is investigating the officer-involved shooting, with help from the Wisconsin State Patrol and the Kenosha County Sheriff’s Office.

The officers involved were placed on administrative leave.

According to court records, Blake had an arrest warrant issued last month for trespassing, third-degree sexual assault, and disorderly conduct.

Evers on Monday also signed an executive order convening a special session of the state legislature on policing accountability and transparency.

Jake Loewen is seen cleaning up through a broken window at the Harborside Academy in Kenosha, Wis., on Aug. 24, 2020. (Morry Gash/AP Photo)

Bills he wants to be passed would establish statewide use of force standards for all law enforcement agencies, create a $1 million grant program to fund community organizations, and prohibit no-knock warrants.

Evers is upset that the legislature has so far refused to take up legislation dealing with the issues despite his urging.

“This is not the time for politics. I am urging Republican leadership to rise to this important moment in history, to put people before politics, and to put lives of black Wisconsinites above politics,” Evers said at the virtual briefing.

Windows are boarded up at a school near the Kenosha County Courthouse in Kenosha, Wis., on Aug. 24, 2020. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, a Republican, said in response that he spoke to Evers earlier in the day by phone and requested he work with lawmakers through a task force on racial disparities that Vos formed on Monday.

“We have an opportunity to bring people together to find solutions. Instead, the governor is choosing to turn to politics again by dictating liberal policies that will only deepen the divisions in our state,” he said in a statement.

But some lawmakers signaled support for Evers’ move. “The time for change is now,” Senate Minority Leader Janet Bewley, a Democrat, said in a tweet.

END
Monday night/Kenosha Wisconsin

“This Is Insane”: Kenosha Melts Down As Cars Smashed, Buildings Torched And Looters Run Wild In Second Night Of Unrest

Anarchy broke out on the streets of Kenosha, Wisconsin Monday as protesters squared off with National Guardsman in the second night of unrest over the shooting of a reportedly unarmed black man by police on Sunday.

 

Two protesters stand with raised fists as a garbage truck burns behind them (via the Daily Mail)

The night was documented by journalist Brendan Gutenschwager (@BGOnTheScene) with photos via the Daily Mail (EPA).

Tear gas was deployed in an attempt to clear protesters who had gathered in front of the Kenosha County courthouse, while Gov. Tony Evers deployed 125 members of the National Guard to assist local law enforcement.

 

A woman taunts law enforcement in front of the Kenosha County courthouse (via the Daily Mail)

Massive fires were set throughout the city, including car dealerships, a Department of Corrections administrative building, and an office furniture company.

 

A city garbage truck burns

In a now-viral video, 29-year-old Jacob Blake was shot seven times in the back while attempting to enter his car during an altercation with police. He is currently in serious condition in a Milwaukee hospital, according to the Daily Mail – which notes that in Blake was charged with resisting arrest and carrying a concealed weapon in 2015 after he pulled a gun at a local bar in Racine.

Meanwhile, details have emerged about Blake’s criminal past, including a recent arrest for sexual assault.

According to online records, Kenosha County prosecutors charged Blake with third-degree sexual assault, trespassing, and disorderly conduct in connection with domestic abuse. –Daily Mail

In addition to the fire and destruction, mass looting ensued – including a Mattress store which was then burned to the ground.

Meanwhile, armed private citizens stood guard outside a local gas station to protect it from looters.

On Monday, tensions flared after a Monday press conference with Mayor John Antarmian was moved from a park to inside the city’s public safety building, according to Fox News, which notes that “Hundreds of protesters rushed to the building and a door was snapped off its hinges before police in riot gear pepper-sprayed the crowd, which included a photographer from The Associated Press.”

Evers and a number of other Democrats condemned the shooting. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden called for “an immediate, full and transparent investigation” and said the officers “must be held accountable.”

“This morning, the nation wakes up yet again with grief and outrage that yet another Black American is a victim of excessive force,” he said, just over two months before Election Day in a country already roiled by the recent deaths of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Rayshard Brooks in Atlanta and Breonna Taylor in Louisville, Kentucky. “Those shots pierce the soul of our nation.”

Republicans and the police union accused the politicians of rushing to judgment, reflecting the deep partisan divide in Wisconsin, a key presidential battleground state. Wisconsin GOP members also decried the violent protests, echoing the law-and-order theme that President Trump has projected during his campaign. –Fox News

For more on-scene coverage, we highly recommend giving Gutenschwager a follow.

end

 

Excellent speeches throughout the night, highlighted by Tim Scott, the only Black Republican in the Congress.  Other great speeches:  Herschel Walker, Kim Klacik, Nikki Haley and others.

(zerohedge)

“From Cotton To Congress In 1 Generation” – Black Republicans Back Trump During RNC Night 1

Republicans wasted no time during the first night of the Republican National Convention from laying out their vision for America, a vision that rests on the spirit of national revival and unity, standing in contrast to the hysterical warnings about “the fate of our democracy” and the bankrupt ideology of identity politics.

Keynote speaker Tim Scott, the only black male Republican in all of Congress, topped a diverse bill of speakers that underscored the fact that Republicans under Trump haven’t given up on courting minority votes, even as Democrats have declared themselves the ‘saviors’ of minority groups – so long as they don’t accumulate too much wealth and power.

Speaking of his humble upbringing in South Carolina, Scott recounted how a mentor taught him the life-changing power of building companies and creating jobs.

The senator shared an incredibly moving tale about how his grandfather had been forced to leave school in the third grade to pick cotton. But he still lived long enough to see his grandson become the first Black American elected to both the House and the Senate.

“Our family went from cotton to Congress in one lifetime,” Scott said.

Scott wasn’t the only black male politician to speak. Vernon Jones, a lifelong Democrat who served in the Georgia General Assembly before resigning and announcing his support for Trump, criticized Democratic leaders tone deaf attempts at ‘connecting’ with minorities – like the infamous “kente clothe” incident.

Remember when Trump “sought to earn the Black vote, the Democratic Party leaders went crazy! Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer literally started wearing Kente cloth scarves around the Capitol!”

As far as Dems pandering attacks on police go, Jones pointed out the irony in them walking around with their police escorts. “Isn’t it ironic that the Democrat politicians never leave home without security to protect them at all times? Why don’t they forgo their security and replace them with social workers, since that’s what they want for us?”

Football legend Herschel Walker shared stories from his 37-year friendship with Donald Trump, sharing a touching story about how Trump once joined Walker and their kids at Disney World, wearing his business suit in the sweltering heat as they waited in line for rides.

Then he landed one of his most powerful lines: “I take it as a personal insult that people would think I would have a 37-year friendship with a racist,” Walker said. “Growing up in the Deep South, I have seen racism up close. I know what it is. And it isn’t Donald Trump.”

One of the breakout stars of the evening was Kim Klacik, a young Republican woman and Congressional candidate running for the late Elijah Cummings’ congressional seat situated in the heart of Baltimore. “The Democrats have controlled my city, Charm City, for over 50 years,” she began in a powerful pre-recorded segment “And they have run this beautiful place into the ground. Abandoned buildings, liquor stores on every corner, drug addicts and guns on the street — that is now the norm in many neighborhoods,” she said.

And with their “de-fund the police” policies, Democrats risk making the situation in Baltimore worse, not better.

Other speakers on the slate from last night included the President’s son Donald Trump Jr., one of his most popular surrogates.

Kimberley Guilfoyle, “a Latina and a proud American”, also shared her support for Trump and how his policies have enabled “strivers” from the middle class and the working class to succeed.

Nikki Haley, former South Carolina Governor and until recently Trump’s ambassador to the UN, also spoke, adding one more minority voice to the Republican slate.

Trump kicked off one of his first appearances by lambasting the Democrats’ mail-in ballot efforts by sending out ballots to people who haven’t requested them.

“This is the most important election in the history of our country,” Trump said. “2016 – how special was that evening. But we have to be very, very careful…and we have to win.”

“Our country can go in a horrible horrible direction…or an even greater direction…and before the plague came in from China, we were going in a direction that we have never seen,” Trump said.

While the mainstream press loves to tout its flawed opinion polling, even the NYT was forced to admit yesterday that Trump’s ratings on the economy remain much higher than Joe Biden’s.

“The Nasdaq has broken the record 16 times already…but Biden, he said he’d shut it down,” Trump said.

end
Republicans had 600% higher viewership than the Democrats.
(zerohedge)

While MSM Panned GOP Convention As ‘Dark’ – Six Times As Many Viewers Watched C-SPAN Livestream

Monday night’s C-SPAN livestream of the first night of the Republican National Convention attracted nearly six times as many viewers as the start of the Democratic National Convention, with 440,000 watching the GOP stream vs. 76,000 for the Democrats, according to The Hill.

TV ratings from Neilsen Media Research have yet to be released for the GOP’s first night. For reference, 18.7 million people watched the first night of the virtual Democratic convention featuring former first lade Michelle Obama and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R).

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden‘s speech on Thursday night was watched by 21.8 million people on TV, beating out the numbers for other major speeches at the party’s convention earlier in the week.

Still, the numbers for Biden mark a 21 percent drop from presidential nominee Hillary Clinton‘s acceptance speech at the Democratic convention in 2016. They are also more than 38 percent lower than President Trump‘s acceptance speech at the Republican convention four years ago, which drew 34.9 million viewers. –The Hill

Of course, progressives now want TV networks to delay airing portions of the GOP convention in order to fact-check claims!

Like the did with Joe Biden’s oft-repeated “very fine people” lie about Trump’s response to Charlottesville?

Meanwhile, after Democrats spent three days dropping steaming turds on President Trump and warning that his reelection would spell doom for the country, resistance media’s coordinated word of the day for Monday’s GOP convention is ‘dark.’

Maybe…

end

DoJ To Charge Teva In Generic Drug Price-Fixing Probe

As President Trump seeks to take on big pharma in a campaign-year push to burnish his reputation for being tough on drugmakers, rhetoric that was a key part of what differentiated him from other Republicans during the early days of the 2016 primary, even if he hasn’t always delivered, the DoJ is reportedly poised to charge Teva Pharmaceuticals in a generic drug price-fixing probe, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.

  • U.S. POISED TO CHARGE TEVA IN GENERIC DRUGS PRICE-FIXING PROBE
  • TEVA SHARES FALL AS MUCH AS 6% ON DOJ PRICE-FIXING REPORT

The news rattled the pharma giant’s shares, which tumbled 6% to the lows, though it has recovered somewhat.

Teva reportedly rebuffed a settlement offer from the DoJ earlier.

The investigation first became public last month, when a Philadelphia judge ruled that Teva would be the first trial to advance in a multi-district case involving an alleged industry-wide conspiracy to fix generic drug prices. Meanwhile, trials involving schemes to fix the prices of three specific drugs – clobetasol, clomipramine, and pravastatin – will advance along a separate track. While that case involves civil legislation, the FBI is also reportedly carrying out its own price-fixing probe based on the same alleged behavior.

Although the market initially reacted like this was all new information, analysts have likely been closely following the civil litigation – even if the FBI probe has been mostly opaque – which has grown into a tangled mess of cases, all of which have recently been consolidated into fewer actions. Currently, the MDL also involves antitrust suits filed by healthcare companies, enforcement actions filed by almost all state attorneys general, and proposed class actions filed on behalf of the wholesalers who buy the drugs directly from Teva.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Pelosi is unhinged!
(zerohedge)

Pelosi Calls Republicans ‘Domestic Enemies Of The State’

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) raged against President Trump and Congressional Republicans on Monday, telling MSNBC that they’re “domestic enemies” of election integrity and “enemies of the state.”

Pelosi was speaking right after President Trump’s speech at the Republican National Convention, according to the Daily Caller.

“We take an oath to protect and defend the Constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic. And sadly, the domestic enemies to our voting system and honoring our Constitution are right at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue with their allies in the Congress of the United States. But again, let’s just get out there and mobilize, organize, and not let the President deter anybody from voting. And again, support the postal system which is election central,” said the 80-year-old Democrat.

They’re doing everything they can; suppress the vote — with your actions, scare people, intimidate by saying law enforcement will be there, diminish the role of the postal system in all of this. It’s really actually shameful. Enemies of the state,” she continued.

Watch:

end
My goodness!!

Watch: BLM Protesters Shot By Homeowners While Marching Through Rural Town

Dramatic video has emerged from the latest incident involving Black Lives Matter protesters entering a residential neighborhood — a trend which is increasingly resulting in worried and anxious homeowners brandishing guns, as happened with the most famous such incident of the gun-toting McCloskey’s defending their mansion in St. Louis over a month ago. Rarely have such tense encounters resulted in shootings, but that appears to have changed.

Late Monday night a homeowner in a suburban neighborhood of the small rural town of Schellsburg in Bedford County, Pennsylvania, reportedly fired upon Black Lives Matter marchers as they entered a residential area.

Social media video appeared to show at least two or possibly three local men confronting the marchers, telling them to exit the neighborhood, after which shots ring out. Local media confirmed a person from among the BLM activists was indeed wounded by gunshot, and transported to Conemaugh Memorial Medical Center in Johnstown around 12:15 a.m. Tuesday.

The group of marchers were engaged in a cross-country protest to walk (and drive, it appears, from the videos) all the way from Milwaukee to Washington, D.C. when apparently they entered the wrong neighborhood:

In an incident that was documented on social media this Monday, Black Lives Matter protesters on a cross-country protest walk from Milwaukee to Washington, D.C. were fired upon in Pennsylvania.

The shot apparently came from a homeowner in the neighborhood. At one point in the video, three men can be seen staring down protesters, one of them seemingly carrying a rifle.

After the shots ring out, some marchers can be heard trying to reason with the men.

Police are said to be investigating the shooting, many of the details of which remain unclear and murky. It appears one victim was shot in the face but is expected to survive.

The Pittsburg Post-Gazette, meanwhile, later said the person was admitted to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries. “In the live-streamed video, at least two gunshots can be heard. One of the marchers is seen bleeding from his face and he said he was shot before other marchers rush him to the hospital,” the report describes.

 

TMZ stillframe showing what appear to be white males in an armed standoff with the BLM protesters. 

Pennsylvania State Trooper Brent Miller also confirmed in a statement that:

Gunfire was exchanged between the activists and the residents, and one activist was struck.”

This strongly suggests some among the BLM activists entering the neighborhood were armed or had firearms in their vehicles. The footage captures the activists telling each other “don’t shoot back” at one point.

TMZ also obtained video from BLM protest leader Frank “Nitty” Sensabaugh, who was live-streaming some of the events:

TMZ describes of the separate video:

You hear one other gunshot and then you hear screaming and chaos. One of the marches can be heard telling the men they’re leaving and that there’s no need to get violent.
Frank and the rest of his group jump into vehicles that were accompanying them and race to the hospital. In a separate video, you can see him holding somebody in the car who appears to have a bloodied shirt. They arrive to the hospital and end up talking to cops about it.

“This dude is shooting at us,” Nitty can be heard yelling, while leaving the scene in a vehicle.

The shaky and chaotic footage shows a white man holding a long rifle.

Below video shows the group days prior marching through a separate residential neighborhood while on their way to Pennsylvania and ultimately on to Martin Luther King Jr. commemoration events scheduled later in D.C.:

Schellsburg has a population of a little over 330 and lies in the southern part of Pennsylvania. Like with many countryside areas and farm and ranch communities, it’s more than likely that significant numbers of the residents are gun owners.

With the increasing lawlessness in the wake of George Floyd’s killing by police that resulted in riots, looting, and mayhem across multiple major US cities, it appears more and more Americans especially in rural areas are interpreting any level of BLM or Antifa activity as a direct threat to their property and lives in a dangerous situation which only looks to escalate.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

A major contributor to the late rally was this:

Powell set to deliver ‘profoundly consequential’ speech, changing how the Fed views inflation

  • He is expected to outline what could be the central bank’s most active efforts ever to spur inflation back to a healthy level.
  • “Average inflation” targeting means the Fed will allow inflation to run higher than normal for a period of time.

     Powell, who will speak Thursday during a virtual version of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming conference, will outline what could be the central bank’s most active efforts ever to spur inflation back to a healthy level [Got gold?  Even Uncle Warren has seen the light!]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/24/powell-set-to-deliver-profoundly-consequential-speech-changing-how-the-fed-views-inflation.html

The Street expects Powell to be over-the-top dovish when he speaks on Thursday.

@ClayTravis: Florida update: percent positive today is 4.89%. This means the “outbreak” is officially over in FL with a fraction of NY & NJ’s death rateShould be top story in country after months of FL fear porn. But most in media will completely ignore it. http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/county_reports_latest.pdf

UK lockdown was a ‘monumental mistake’ and must not happen again – Boris scientist says

Mark Woolhouse said lockdown was a “panic measure” but admitted it was the only option at the time because “we couldn’t think of anything better to do”. But it is a crude measure that takes no accounts of the risk levels to different individuals, the University of Edinburgh professor said, meaning that back in March the nation was “concentrating on schools when we should have been concentrating on care homes”… “I believe the harm lockdown is doing to our education, health care access, and broader aspects of our economy and society will turn out to be at least as great as the harm done by Covid-19.”…

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1320428/Coronavirus-news-lockdown-mistake-second-wave-Boris-Johnson/amp

WSJ: New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly [Attn. Team Biden!]

Blanket business shutdowns—which the U.S. never tried before this pandemic—led to a deep recession. Economists and health experts say there may be a better way.

    “We’re on the cusp of an economic catastrophe,” said James Stock, a Harvard University economist who, with Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina and others, is modeling how to avoid a surge in deaths without a deeply damaging lockdown. “We can avoid the worst of that catastrophe by being disciplined,” Mr. Stock said… If schools don’t reopen until next January, McKinsey & Co. estimates, low-income children will have lost a year of education, which it says translates into 4% lower lifetime earnings…

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-lockdowns-economy-pandemic-recession-business-shutdown-sweden-coronavirus-11598281419?st=xk24lujktir2h2r

@ClayTravis: 77 NFL players tested positive for the coronavirus. All of them were false positives. So how many people in America have tested positive but never actually had Covid? Most people don’t have the resources to get their tests double checked.

“It’s Getting Worse with Every Shock” – One Bank Turns Apocalyptic on the Coming End-Game

Bank of America admits, “This is a scenario of recurring bubbles.” The real economy is weak, but asset prices are strong because of loose macro policy support-more decoupling between Wall Street and Main Street. As Vamvakidis writes, “this will continue until unexpected shocks take place, asset price bubbles burst, which then needs even looser macro policies to avoid an even weaker real economy, leading to new asset price bubbles. The result is a vicious cycle spiralling to even higher debt levels, lower interest rates and larger central bank balance sheets, without inflation, but with an even weaker real economy and even worse asset price bubbles.”  We see no easy way out. Again, we wouldn’t start from here. This is not a good place to be in for the global economy and it is getting worse with every shock, despite the market euphoria in the meantime. An already bad situation before the pandemic has now become worse. We are not sure how and when we will see the end-game, but in our view this is not a sustainable situation in the long term… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-getting-worse-every-shock-bofa-turns-apocalyptic-coming-end-game

Exxon Mobil, Pfizer and Raytheon will be replaced in the DJIA by Salesforce, Amgen and Honeywell.

WaPo: Mail-in ballots were part of a plot to deny Lincoln reelection in 1864

Discovered in Ferry’s office was a list of around 400 names belonging to sick and wounded soldiers under treatment at a nearby hospital. In reference to the roster, Ferry joked, “Dead or alive, they all had cast a good vote.”…

    Together, the men had shipped crates of fraudulent votes back to New York. But their scheme was over. Wood reported the operation to authorities. Ferry’s office was searched, and on the morning of Oct. 27, 1864 — less than two weeks before the election — he and Donahue stood trial before a military commission… https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/08/22/mail-in-voting-civil-war-election-conspiracy-lincoln/

 

@ABC: @DavidMuir asks Joe Biden, “Can you win a presidential election from home?”  “We will,” Biden responds. “It’s about being responsible.” [Not a parody!]  https://abcn.ws/34qwv3f

 

Biden’s virus attacks face harsh reality: worst death tolls are in Democrat-run states

Top three states for total and population-adjusted deaths are run by Democratic governors, state legislators.  https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/uncomfortable-data-biden-slams-trumps-covid-response-33-deaths-are

 

CBS’ @edokeefen: @JoeBiden & @KamalaHarris to be tested regularly for COVID19, campaign says. Staff interacting with them will be tested regularly and the campaign vows it “will make public if either the Vice President or Senator Harris ever has a confirmed, positive case of COVID-19.” [The fallout from the admission that Biden has not been tested must have been significant!]

 

Biden Campaign Apologizes Privately to [Dem Rep] Linda Sarsour for Condemning Her Publicly

Joe Biden’s presidential campaign privately apologized to radical left-wing activist Linda Sarsour after publicly condemning her extreme anti-Israel views last week.  Sarsour is a leader of the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement, which singles out Israel for isolation

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/08/24/biden-campaign-apologizes-privately-to-linda-sarsour-for-condemning-her-publicly/

 

Over 1,000 DNC delegates voted against party platform, in sign of Dem discord

DNC didn’t release platform vote until after convention ended

The DNC revealed over the weekend that 3,562 delegates voted to approve the platform, while a total of 1,069 voted no, and 87 abstained.The number of convention delegates who voted no is roughly the same as the number of delegates pledged to progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/over-1000-democratic-delegates-voted-against-party-platform

 

Proof that polls imply the DNC Convention didn’t go well? UNHINGED: Nancy Pelosi labels Republicans “domestic enemies…enemies of the state”   https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1297985842934427651

 

GOP @RepDougCollins: Wow.  The Speaker of the House of Representatives just called the President of the United States and Republicans in Congress “domestic enemies… enemies of the state.”  Her words are beneath the office of Speaker and she should resign immediately.

Rep @SteveScalise: Disgusting: Nancy Pelosi just called Republicans “domestic enemies.”  I was shot[by Bernie Sanders supporter]because of this kind of unhinged rhetoric.  Where’s the media outrage?

 

@RodneyDavis: I was w/ @SteveScalise and others when a deranged, GOP-hating gunman opened fire on us. This rhetoric hurts our country. We may disagree on policy, but I would never call Dem colleagues in Congress enemies of the state. Speaker Pelosi should apologize for her dangerous rhetoric.

 

Trump accuses Democrats of ‘using COVID to steal our election’ in defiant RNC remarks after nomination   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-democrats-coronavirus-steal-election-rnc-remarks

 

Some items from Trump’s 2nd Term Agenda that caught our eye:

  • Provide School Choice to Every Child in America
  • Pass Congressional Term Limits
  • End Bureaucratic Government Bullying of U.S. Citizens and Small Businesses
  • Expose Washington’s Money Trail and Delegate Powers Back to People and States
  • Drain the Globalist Swamp by Taking on International Organizations That Hurt Americans
  • End Cashless Bail and Keep Dangerous Criminals Locked Up until Trial
  • Block Illegal Immigrants from Becoming Eligible for Taxpayer-Funded Welfare, Healthcare, and Free College Tuition
  • Prohibit American Cos. from Replacing United States Citizens with Lower-Cost Foreign Workers

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/trump-campaign-announces-president-trumps-2nd-term-agenda-fighting-for-you

 

Kenosha Wisconsin Explodes in Aftermath of Police Shooting at Domestic Disturbance

What started as only demonstrations early in the evening progressed to vandalism, wide-spread property destruction, and looting.  The local police were simply too few in number to stop the violence without resorting to deadly force which they did not do…

https://www.redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2020/08/24/kenosha-wisconsin-explodes-in-aftermath-of-police-shooting-at-domestic-disturbance/

 

National Guard deployed to Kenosha, Wis. following unrest over Black man’s shooting by police

https://madison.com/news/national/national-guard-deployed-to-kenosha-wis-following-unrest-over-black-mans-shooting-by-police/article_90891a6b-0ce5-5c00-b2c0-c306cc028e09.html

Ohio State Department of Athletics projects $130.3 million loss in revenue

Due to the cancelation of the fall sports seasons…

https://www.thelantern.com/2020/08/ohio-state-department-of-athletics-projects-130-3-million-loss-in-revenue/

Gretchen Whitmer [Dem Gov Michigan] the Lone Governor Holding Up Big 10 Football Season

Last week, Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group argued the lack of a Big 10 football season — and the appearance of supporting such a cancellation — could have an impact on the presidential election.

   “Midwest battleground state swing voters who see SEC and/or ACC play football this fall, will punish candidates who don’t constantly and loudly oppose the Big 10’s decision,” Cahaly wrote…

     “How people perceive the coronavirus is defining their politics. If you believe it’s a hoax or you think it’s overblown you’re in the Trump corner. If you believe everything needs to be shutdown and you won’t leave your home until there’s a vaccine you’re in the Biden corner,” he said.

    “But if you’re in the middle – and there’s a growing group that says ‘hey, we’re going to do what we can to be safe and protect our families but we’re gonna live our life’ – well, that group is growing, and how that group moves and how they perceive the candidates absolutely is going to determine how they vote,” he added. “And college football is on the front line of that,” Cahaly said.

https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2020/08/23/report-gretchen-whitmer-lone-governor-holding-big-10-football-season/

 

NY Subway Windows Being Smashed at Such Rate the MTA Can’t Get Glass Fast Enough to Replace Them – The MTA has counted more than 400 smashed and destroyed windows over the course of the summer and has documented at least 63 train cars which were attacked with a bat, hammer, pole, or pipe by one or more serial vandals. It’s to the point that service itself on some lines are now under threat…https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ny-subway-windows-smashed-such-rate-mta-cant-get-glass-fast-enough-replace-them

 

@lawyer4laws: Did you know –The USSR originally came up with “Climate Change“? Ivan Frolov 1982 essay refers to greenhouse gas theory of anthropogenic global warming, “Global Problems and the Future of Mankind,” Blames capitalism  USSR Constitution Science must promote Communism.

https://twitter.com/lawyer4laws/status/1297501418891481094?s=09

 

KFC Suspends ‘Finger Lickin Good’ Slogan Because Of Coronavirus Concerns [Not a parody!] https://dailycaller.com/2020/08/24/kfc

 

The following link shows the start of the GOP Convention, which is starkly different than the DNC Convention.  It begins at the 8:00 mark on the link. https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1ynJOqVvEMAKR

 

RNC 2020: Viral candidate Kim Klacik tells Dems, ‘We’re not going to take it

Klacik, who is black, caught the eye of GOP leaders last week with a viral campaign video in which she led a tour of “the reality for black people” in Baltimore.  “The Democrats still assume that black people will vote for them, no matter how much they let us down and take us for granted,” Klacik continued Monday night. “We’re sick of it. We’re not going to take it anymore. “The days of blindly supporting the Democrats are coming to an end.”… https://trib.al/bovw9Ly

 

@HerschelWalkerGrowing up in the Deep South, I have seen racism up close. I know what it is.  And it isn’t @realDonaldTrump… Just because someone loves and respects the flag … doesn’t mean that they don’t care about social justice. I care about all of those things and so does Donald Trump…

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

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