S&P futures and global stocks rose on Wednesday for the second day as Tuesday’s global rebound extended after the recent correction, ahead of data that would throw light on the pace of an economic recovery from a coronavirus-driven recession. Investors also waited for a second speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell who will appear before the House Select Subcommittee on the coronavirus to discuss the central bank’s response. The dollar extended its impressive Tuesday gains while 10Y yields were fractionally higher.

Nike was set for a record open after a stunning quarterly earnings report. Shares of the world’s largest athletic shoe maker surged 13.2% in premarket trading as its digital sales, especially in North America, helped offset a fall in sales at traditional brick-and-mortar stores. The Dow constituent was set to drive the blue-chip index higher for a second straight day, clawing back more of the sharp declines from Monday that were driven by fears of another round of lockdowns to contain a global surge in COVID-19 cases.

On the other end, Tesla fell 4.8% in premarket trading as the goals announced at Tuesday’s “Battery Day” event was a dud and Musk failed to impress with his promise to cut electric vehicle costs. Oracle headed lower after a report by a state-backed Chinese newspaper said Beijing was unlikely to approve a proposed deal by the software maker and Walmart for ByteDance’s TikTok.

Meanwhile, Russia’s largest internet company Yandex surged 9.2% in premarket after it said it’s in talks to buy TCS Group Holding Plc for about $5.48 billion. Elsewhere, the FAANGs edged higher before the bell. The group has borne the brunt of the declines this month after fuelling a Wall Street rally since March.

Overall sentiment remains skittish as doubts about more U.S. fiscal stimulus and growing political uncertainty in the run-up to the Nov. 3 presidential elections have kept investors from making big stock market bets.

“We are seeing a solid bounce, but it’s in the context of a very sharp pullback on Monday, which was a reset,” said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst in London for Markets.com. “We had bulls just tipping their toes back in the water, and the higher closes — as small as they were — seems to have been enough to cue today’s gains.”

“If we get a second (COVID-19) wave, it could have a significant impact on the election itself and that’s why markets have been wobbly in the last few days,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index climbed 1.5%, the biggest gain in two weeks, helped by a jump German stocks after manufacturing data rose to a two-year high. Auto companies and travel stocks led the advance in Europe, with gains of 2.8% for both. Despite stronger German mfg PMI, the service sector stumbled and broader Eurozone data showed eurozone business growth ground to a halt this month with the post-Covid economic recovery stumbling this month, as the latest Euro area composite PMI declined by 1.8pt to 50.1 in September, notably below expectations. Across sectors, the overall decline was concentrated in the service sector, with the pace of recovery in manufacturing reaccelerating from August:

• Euro Area Composite PMI: 50.1, consensus 51.9, last 51.9.
• Euro Area Manufacturing PMI: 53.7, consensus 51.9, last 51.7.
• Euro Area Services PMI: 47.6, consensus 50.6, last 50.5.

And the sharp divergence in Germany:

• Germany Composite PMI: 53.7, consensus 54.0, last 54.4.
• German Services PMI: 49.1, consensus 53.0, last 52.5
• German Manufacturing PMI: 56.6, consensus 52.5

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were fractionally higher, with health care rising and energy falling, after falling in the last. Markets in the region were mixed, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and Singapore’s Straits Times Index rising, and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index and Taiwan’s Taiex Index falling. The Topix declined 0.1%, with Daiichi Kigenso and Land Co falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2%, with EGing Photovoltaic Technology and Jinko Power Technology posting the biggest advances

Chinese state-run media decounced the TikTok deal as “an American trap” and a “dirty and underhanded trick” as sentiment in Beijing swings against the proposal. TikTok owner ByteDance said it would remain in control of the new entity that would be created in the agreement, pushing back on President Donald Trump’s assertions that Oracle Corp. would be in control. The wider context of resistance from China is that the country’s leaders do not want to be seen to be pushed around by unilateral U.S. actions.

Looking at today’s main event in markets, Fed Chair Powell is in Congress again testifying to a House select subcommittee on the coronavirus response from 10:00 a.m. Yesterday he said the U.S. economy has a long way to go before it is fully recovered and that more support will be needed.

In other overnight news, while there is still very little progress on reaching a new stimulus deal, there was some relief late yesterday when an agreement to keep the government funded through Dec. 11 was reached, avoiding a shutdown just before the election. More importantly, Republican moves to get a confirmation hearing for Trump’s Supreme Court nominee in the coming weeks now seem unstoppable, after Democrats gained little support in the Senate for a delay.

In FX, the dollar advanced a fourth day after breaking above a key technical resistance level. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was set for its longest run of gains since June as the greenback continued its rebound and advanced versus most Group-of-10 peers. The euro erased losses, after falling to 1.1672 in early London trading, despite weaker- than-forecast European services PMI data. The pound also steadied after dropping following comments by Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab on not being able to rule out a nationwide shutdown. The Australian dollar led declines after influential Westpac Banking Corp. economist Bill Evans predicted the central bank would cut interest rates at its Oct. 6 meeting; the New Zealand dollar also slipped, with the central bank maintaining the size of its quantitative easing program and keeping rates unchanged.

In rates, treasury yields are slightly cheaper in early U.S. trading as Asia-session gains – led by steep gains for Aussie bonds – eroded ahead of 5-year note auction. Yields are cheaper by about 0.5bp from intermediates to long end with 10-year around 0.675%, trading broadly in line with bunds; gilts outperform slightly, about 0.5bp richer vs. Treasuries. Treasury auction cycle resumes with $53b 5-year note at 1pm ET, concludes with 7-year Thursday. Italian bonds rallied to send 30-year yields to an all-time low with investors continuing to snap up the securities on fading domestic political risk and support from European institutions. Elsewhere, Zambia became the first African country to ask bondholders for relief since the onset of the coronavirus.

In commodities oil was unchanged after fluctuating earlier, while gold continues to slide, dropping below $1,900 earlier and sliding below the 50DMA.

Looking at the day ahead, in addition to Powell speaking in the House, there is a slew of Fed speakers today, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Latest U.S. government crude stockpile data is at 10:30 a.m. President Trump is due to speak to state attorneys general on social media abuses. The UN General Assembly continues.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 3,314.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 362.11
• MXAP up 0.09% to 171.12
• MXAPJ up 0.2% to 557.55
• Nikkei down 0.06% to 23,346.49
• Topix down 0.1% to 1,644.25
• Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 23,742.51
• Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,279.71
• Sensex down 1% to 37,353.04
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 2.4% to 5,923.93
• Kospi up 0.03% to 2,333.24
• German 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to -0.513%
• Euro down 0.2% to $1.1689
• Italian 10Y yield fell 5.2 bps to 0.661%
• Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 0.217%
• Brent futures up 0.4% to $41.87/bbl
• Gold spot down 1.1% to $1,879.89
• U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.94

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• The European Central Bank risks legal trouble if it tries to extend the “emergency powers” of its pandemic bond-buying plan to its other asset-purchase program, according to Executive Board member Yves Mersch
• SNB President Thomas Jordan has taken his foot off the pedal after the most aggressive currency intervention in five years early in the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic
• The euro area’s economic recovery stalled this month as consumers fretted about a resurgence of the coronavirus and governments reinstated restrictions to control the spread of the disease
• Banks from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to HSBC Holdings Plc have hit pause on plans to return workers in London after Prime Minister Boris Johnson appealed to Britons to work from home to help tame a resurgent coronavirus
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. is moving about 200 billion euros ($230 billion) from the U.K. to Frankfurt as a result of Britain’s exit from the European Union

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asian equity markets traded mixed and failed to take full impetus from the rebound across their global peers, with the region tentative amid ongoing US-China tensions and with Japan suffering post-holiday blues on return from the extended weekend. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (+2.4%) outperformed and is on track for its best day in seven weeks as tech names led the broad advances after they found inspiration from the resurgence of the sector stateside, with sentiment also buoyed by increasing calls for the RBA to cut rates at next month’s meeting after RBA Deputy Governor Debelle recently outlined policy options. Nikkei 225 (U/C) was subdued as it played catch up to the recent days’ weakness and with Panasonic shares pressured alongside fellow Tesla supplier LG Chem after the EV-maker’s Battery Day Event fell flat where Elon Musk announced plans for a reduction in costs and to manufacture its own batteries, while he also showcased the Model S Plaid which is to be available next year. Conversely, Fujifilm Holdings was at the other side of the spectrum after announcing its Avigan drug met the primary endpoint in Phase 3 COVID trials. Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) were indecisive as the continued PBoC liquidity efforts were offset by ongoing US-China tensions after US President Trump put China on blast for the spread of the coronavirus at the virtual UN meeting, while Beijing later criticized President Trump of spreading “political virus”. In addition, the uncertainty regarding the TikTok deal persists and the US House also overwhelmingly passed the forced labour bill which would ban imports from China’s Xinjiang region that were produced using forced labour. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher amid the risk averse tone in Japan and with the BoJ also in the market for nearly JPY 1.3tln of JGBs in up to 10yr maturities, while it also offered to purchase 3yr-5yr corporate bonds.

Top Asian News

• Hong Kong’s BEA Is Said to Press Ahead With Life Insurance Sale
• Richard Li’s FWD Said to Plan Up to $3 Billion Hong Kong IPO
• Malaysia Leader Calls for Stability After Anwar Claims Majority
• Hong Kong Traders Chased 1,600-1 Odds to Buy IPO That Flopped

European equities are back on the grind higher (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%) after experience a fleeting blip lower on the back of French Services PMI dipping back into contractionary territory on second wave woes. The region picked up the baton from a mixed APAC handover, with reports also noting that the ECB as called upon Brussels to make the EU Recovery Fund a permanent measure. Bourses in the EU are seeing broad-based gains, whilst UK’s FTSE (+2.2%) ploughs ahead initially with the aid of a softer Sterling. Meanwhile UBS Wealth Management sees UK domestic banks falling 15-20% and insurance stocks decline by 7-10% in a no-deal Brexit scenario, but expects double digit positive returns from UK equities over the next 9-12 months in the event of a deal. Sectors in Europe are higher across the board with a slight cyclical/value bias, although material names do not fare so well amid the USD-induced declines across the metals complex. Consumer Discretionary meanwhile tops the charts with the aid of Nike (+13% pre-mkt) post-earnings, who beat on both top and bottom lines whilst reporting digital sales +82% YY – thus bolstering the likes of Adidas (+5.7%), Puma (+4.6%) and JD Sports (+5.1%). In terms of the breakdown, Travel & Leisure leads the gains, closely followed by Autos and Banks. Turning to individual movers, Osram Licht (+14.6%) is the top Stoxx 600 gainer after ASM (+1.4%) has signed a denomination and profit and loss transfer agreement with Osram as part of the takeover process.

Top European News

• Europe’s Economic Revival Put on Hold by Virus Resurgence
• U.K. Recovery Slows as Households Start to Rein In Spending
• Sunak Urged to Save U.K. Firms From ‘Ruin’ of Covid Curbs
• Merkel Resists Full Ban on Huawei, Making Germany an Outlier

In FX, the Dollar has extended its impressive recovery rally, partly in relief that the House finally passed the stopgap spending bill to avert a Government shutdown, but mainly as the Greenback continues to regain its global safe-haven and reserve status amidst the ongoing resurgence in COVID-19 that is accelerating outside the US and notably across Europe again. As a result, the index breached 94.000 and topped out just above 94.250, with several Buck/major pairings looking very vulnerable near or through psychological/round number levels.

• AUD/NZD – Dovish RBA calls via Westpac and NAB both looking for 15 bp cuts at the October meeting, plus a dovish RBNZ hold overnight, leaving the door wide open for more easing and in the offing or in the pipeline, an FLP by the end of 2020, according to the accompanying statement, have all added further pressure on the Aussie and Kiwi, with the former struggling to stay above 0.7100 and latter even less assured around 0.6600 ahead of NZ trade data.
• CAD – Some solace for the Loonie from relative stability in oil prices, but not enough momentum to convincingly reclaim 1.3300+ status within a 1.3345-1.3294 range awaiting the reopening of Canadian Parliament by PM Trudeau.
• CHF/EUR/GBP/JPY – All narrowly mixed vs the Dollar, but not before losing grip of 0.9200, 1.1700, 1.2700 and 105.00 handles respectively in advance of Thursday’s quarterly SNB policy review and following mixed Eurozone/UK prelim PMIs where services sector weakness outweighed manufacturing strength to keep the composite readings compressed. However, Sterling was undermined by domestic factors related to the coronavirus and warnings from Foreign Minister Raab about latest restrictions not going far enough to rule out the risk of reverting to full lockdown. Cable plumbed fresh lows around 1.2677 and Eur/Gbp retested recent peaks circa 0.9220 in response, but the Pound has subsequently received a reprieve from EU’s Barnier expressing determination to strike a Brexit trade deal. Elsewhere, pretty standard commentary from BoJ Governor Kuroda has marked the return of Japanese markets from their 4-day break, but not really the Yen between 104.91-105.19 parameters eyeing mega option expiries for tomorrow that span 105.00 in an even tighter band (104.90-105.10).
• SCANDI/EM – The Norwegian Crown continues to slip closer towards the sentimental if not technically significant 11.0000 level vs the Euro regardless of crude finding a base as noted above, but the Swedish Krona is still benefiting from Riksbank rigidity on the repo staying at the zero lower bound until this time in 2023. On that note, the Turkish Lira will be looking for continuity and some much needed support from the CBRT on Thursday via a form of indirect tightening as it plumbs almost daily record lows, and more immediately the Czech Koruna has the CNB to provide direction, albeit with no change in rates expected.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have nursed the losses seen in APAC hours, as sentiment in Europe picks back up after the EZ Services PMI fell back contraction but manufacturing topped estimates across the board. The initial weakness in the crude markets stemmed from a surprise build in the Private Inventory data (+0.7mln vs. Exp. -2.3mln), whilst concern remains over the demand implications from the reimposition of lockdowns and quarantine travel rules, with the Gazprom CEO also noting that we are seeing global oil demand recovery slowing down due to pandemic, and expects global oil consumption to return to pre-crisis level in H2 2021. In terms of the reopening supply from Libya, reports yesterday noted that next week could see output of some 260k BPD (vs. 1mln BPD pre-blockade), although analysts at ING downplay the relevance, noting that “In the current environment, where there are clear concerns over demand, additional supply will do little to help rebalance the market.” Something else to be aware of: reports noted that Chinese refiners are requesting additional import quotas for the fourth quota, having had taken advantage of the lower oil prices earlier this year. Desks note that further quota allocation could support the physical market. Aside from that, news-flow has remained relatively light for the complex thus far, WTI Nov meanders around USD 39.85/bbl (vs. low USD 39.26/bbl), while its Brent counterpart resides around 41.85/bbl (vs. low 41.21/bbl), awaiting the weekly EIA inventory data – with headline crude stocks seen drawing 2.325mln barrels. Elsewhere, precious metals initially succumb to the firmer Dollar and broader gains in stocks. Spot gold moves further below the USD 1900/oz mark to find support at USD 1875/oz, and has picked up given the most recent slip in the USD, whilst spot silver found a current base around the USD 23/oz level. Base metals are also mostly lower – with LME copper weighed on by the firmer Buck and lackluster China performance, whilst Dalian iron ore futures fell for a third straight days as higher shipments from mainstream miners weighed on prices.

US Event Calendar

• 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.5%
• 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.45%, prior 0.9%
• 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53.5, prior 53.1; Services PMI, est. 54.5, prior 55; Composite PMI, prior 54.6

Fed Speakers:

• 9am: Fed’s Mester Discusses Payments and the Pandemic
• 10am: Powell Appears before House Panel on Covid-19
• 11am: Fed’s Evans Discusses the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
• 12pm: Fed’s Rosengren Discusses U.S. Economy
• 1pm: Fed’s Kashkari Discusses Public Health
• 1pm: Fed’s Bostic Speaks to Hale County Chamber of Commerce
• 2pm: Fed’s Quarles Gives Speech on the Economic Outlook
• 3pm: Fed’s Daly Discusses Labor Force Implications of Covid-19

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I suspect this won’t be the last Zoom call I do from home after the U.K. yesterday effectively encouraged those who can work from home to do so – and possibly for the next 6 months. Today also sees a big change in the weather here as the Indian Summer has come to an abrupt end. Winter is coming in more ways than one. On the virus we’ve revamped our daily cases and fatality tables that appear in the PDF (click view report above) and given they are sorted worst to best they show that the U.K. is certainly not at the top of the second wave, but restrictions are nonetheless being tightened as case numbers build (4,926 yesterday and the highest since early May). In addition to WFH guidance, all hospitality venues must now close at 10pm daily from Thursday. In a nationwide address Johnson stressed the desire to avoid a full lockdown scenarios saying, “we must do all we can to avoid going down that road again.” Though if the infections continue to rise the government naturally left the option on the table. Meanwhile in Scotland, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon went even further, with a ban on households visiting other households indoors.

The virus news flow has been a difficult backdrop for markets this week but US markets started to gather some momentum after Europe went home last night. There was a particular reversal in US technology stocks, which continued to outperform after the late-session rally on Monday. The S&P 500 broke a four-day slide and gained +1.05%, however cyclicals sectors like Banks (-1.89%), Autos (-1.13%) and Energy (-1.03%) continued to lag. Retail (+3.64%), Media (+2.24%) and Software (+1.94%) all the led the S&P higher as the tech gains saw the NASDAQ rally +1.71%. This could again signal that the stay-at-home trade is coming back into vogue with further restrictions being seen in Europe. Europe still saw a slight recovery from Monday’s worst day for three months as the STOXX 600 climbed +0.20% higher.

Asian markets are mixed this morning with the Nikkei (-0.36%) and Kospi (-0.25%) both down while the Hang Seng (-0.01%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.02%) are trading broadly flat and the Asx (+2.15%) is up partly helped by stronger preliminary PMIs (more below). Japanese markets have reopened post 2 days of holiday. In overnight news, Tesla’s “Battery Day” event came short of expectations for a blockbuster leap forward as the company laid out a roadmap to build a $25,000 car only by 2023 which disappointed some. The stock was down -7% in aftermarket trading. This is also weighing on Nasdaq futures (-0.38%) while those on the S&P 500 are trading broadly flat.In fx, the US dollar index is up a further +0.25% this morning after yesterday’s +0.47% advance.

In other news, the US House passed a stopgap funding bill to keep the government operating through Dec. 11 after both parties in Congress and officials at the White House struck a deal to provide aid to farmers and food assistance for low-income families. The temporary spending bill will now move to the Senate for a vote.

Today, investors will be watching out for the flash PMIs for September, which will give us an early indication of how the global economy has fared this month. Overnight we’ve already had readings from Japan and Australia, with Japan struggling to recover further as manufacturing PMI rose by just 0.1 pt to 47.3 while the services reading improved to 45.6 (vs. 45.0 last month). Australia’s readings were a bit more robust with manufacturing PMI climbing to 55.5 (vs. 53.6 last month) and the services reading printing at 50.0 (vs. 49.0 last month). Australia’s reading seem to be helped partly by the easing of lockdown in Victoria, the second largest state. With infections rising again in Europe, not least in the UK, France and Spain, the question is to what extent this will impact on economic activity there as well. DB’s Peter Sidorov put out a piece yesterday (link here) in which he writes that his analysis points to a slight upside risk to the Euro Area PMI because of mobility trends, which has been rising in September. We’ll get those releases this morning.

Back to yesterday, and Fed Chair Powell appeared before the House Financial Services panel, where he again stressed the need to keep the virus under control and for further policy actions from “all levels of government.” Secretary Mnuchin who testified alongside the Fed Chair said that he and the President he would continue to seek Congressional agreement on further fiscal stimulus. Though now Congress seems like it will be more focused on a supreme court confirmation than fiscal stimulus in the short term. The Fed Chair said the Fed has only purchased $1.5 billion in loans so far through its Main Street Lending Program. The program is a $600 billion facility backed by Treasury funds, which aims to provide credit to small-mid sized companies. Mnuchin did bring up the idea of reallocating some of the unused money in Fed facilities to other uses, though it would require congressional approval.

There were a few other central bank headlines. From the ECB, we had Fabio Panetta of the Executive Board saying that “the risks of a policy overreaction are much smaller than the risks of policy being too slow or too shy to react and the worst-case scenarios materialising.” And over in the UK, Bank of England Governor Bailey downplayed the prospect of an imminent move to negative rates after last week’s MPC minutes showed that they were exploring the operational considerations of such a move.

In fixed income, there was a sharp narrowing of sovereign bond spreads in Europe, particularly following the regional election results in Italy that were regarded as positive for the government’s stability. Yields on 10yr BTPs fell -5.2bps to their lowest levels in almost a year, moving below the levels they were at before the pandemic hit the country in late February. And with the selloff for bunds, that sent the BTP-bund spread down -7.7bps to 1.37%, its lowest level in 7 months. Elsewhere, US Treasury yields saw a slight +0.5bps move higher, as the dollar index climbed a further +0.35% to reach its highest level in nearly 2 months.

Staying on the US, and with less than 6 weeks now until the election, President Trump said that he’d announce his choice this Saturday at 5pm (Washington Time) on who would replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court. In a positive development for Trump, Senator Mitt Romney said that he’s in favour of moving forward with a confirmation vote on Trump’s choice, which leaves just 2 Republican senators out of the 53-member caucus who have opposed going ahead with a vote. With Trump’s choice on Saturday and the first debate between himself and Biden this Tuesday, the coming week will be one of the most important yet ahead of election day on November 3rd.

Looking at yesterday’s data, existing home sales in the US rose to an annualised rate of 6.00m in August, in line with expectations, and the most since 2006. Meanwhile the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey rose to 21 (vs. 12 expected). Finally, the advance consumer confidence reading from the Euro Area in September rose to -13.9 (vs. -14.7 expected). This was its highest level since March, but still some way below the -6.6 reading back in February before the full impact of the pandemic became apparent.

To the day ahead now, and the aforementioned flash PMIs will be one of the key highlights. Otherwise, there are an array of Fed speakers, including Chair Powell before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, as well as the Vice Chair Quarles, Mester, Evans, Rosengren, Kashkari, Bostic and Daly. The ECB’s Hernandez de Cos will also be speaking.