SEPT24//GOLD UP $9.30 TO $1874.30//SILVER UP 15 CENTS TO $23.15//GOLD TONNAGE AT COMEX: 14.9 TONNES//SILVER OZ STANDING: 54.4 MILLION OZ//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE THE GLOBE//TURKEY IN SERIOUS FINANCIAL TROUBLE AS RESERVE CURRENCY PLUMMETS: THEY RAISE RATES TO STEM THE FALL IN THE LIRA//IN THE USA 870,000 NEW UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT CLAIMS//NO TALKS BETWEEN MNUCHIN AND PELOSI//

GOLD:$1874.30  UP $9.30   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

Silver:$23.15 UP  $0.15   London spot price ( cash market)

Despite the fact that the comex expiry is tomorrow, both gold and silver held up quite well. The front month of October in gold refuses to contract in numbers.  Gold tonnage at the comex continues to advance as well as silver.

 

In USA economic news, we still do not have any deal between Mnuchin and Pelosi and it is this deal that everybody is waiting for. Unemployment benefits both initial and continual rose again this past week

 

 

 

comex option expiry FRIDAY: Sept 25

LBMA/OTC options expiry:  Sept 30

It is going to be an interesting week…

 

your data…

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1868.70  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $23.18//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

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CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

OCT GOLD:  1870.30  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /: $4.00 BACKWARD//  VERY CHEAP@!! THIS IS A MAGNET TO ATTRACT THOSE WILLING TO PURCHASE AND THEN TAKE DELIVERY OF METAL.

 

 

 

DEC. GOLD  $1879.10   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $4.90/ CONTANGO   ( $1.90 BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $23.15…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 0 CENTS CONTANGO//  NORMAL CONTANGO)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $23.33  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       :   18  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO ( 12 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

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COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today:  0/298

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,898.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/22/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 09/24/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
135 H RAND 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 7
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 297
661 H JP MORGAN 286
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
709 H BARCLAYS 1
845 C GOLDMAN SACHS C 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 298 298
MONTH TO DATE: 4,707

issued:  0

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 298 NOTICE(S) FOR 29,800 OZ  (0.9269 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  4707 NOTICES FOR 470700 OZ  (14.6406 tonnes) 

 

 

SILVER

 

 

193 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 965,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 10,901 for 54.505 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $10407  UP 166

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $10653. UP 412

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

 

 

GLD: 1,267.14 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER UP  $.15  TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

 

SLV: 553.443  MILLION OZ./

 

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A FAIR 837 CONTRACTS FROM 157,908 DOWN TO 157,071, AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE $1.41 FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE  LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO  ZERO  SILVER SHORT COVERING..  COUPLED AGAINST A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL. WE ALSO HAD MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A VERY STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT DESPITE THE VICIOUS RAID.  WE HAD A SMALL NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 237 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A TINY  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  600, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  SEP 0;  DEC:  600, MARCH  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  600 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

 

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.160 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT

 

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL $1.41) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THE RAIDS THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE ORCHESTRATED BY THE BIS WITH MEGA ASSISTANCE FROM OUR CRIMINAL BANKERS AND OUR ALGOS. THEIR CHIEF AIM WAS TO REMOVE SPECULATORS FROM THEIR LONG POSITIONS…..   WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A VERY STRONG  GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING  FOR SEPTEMBER, 3) TINY COMEX LOSS AND 4) MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION.  YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

12,744 CONTRACTS (FOR 17 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 12,744 CONTRACTS) OR 63.720 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 749 CONTRACTS OR 3.745 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT: 63.72 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.10% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,443.42 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                63.72 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 665, DESPITE OUR HUGE  $1.41 FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///WEDNESDAY.THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 600 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

 

 

TODAY WE LOST A TINY SIZED 237 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (DESPITE OUR NASTY  $1.41 FALL IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 600 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A FAIR SIZED DECREASE OF 837 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $1,41 FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $23.00 // WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.791 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 113% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW AUGUST  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 107 NOTICE(S) FOR 535,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 86.470 million oz//AUGUST 6.475 MILLION OZ//SEPT. 55.160 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3134 CONTRACTS TO 579,011 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED  DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE  OF $28.00 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// WEDNESDAY//WE THUS HAD ZERO BANKER SHORT COVERING AS, DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS, WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (9277 CONTRACTS)…  BASICALLY, NOBODY HAS LEFT THE GOLD ARENA.  WE ALSO HAD A SMALL ADVANCE IN TONNAGE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPTEMBER ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $28.00. 

 

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 37    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  101//

 

 

WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 8454 CONTRACTS  (26.26 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE VICIOUS RAID.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5320 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . OCT: 200 DEC: 5120; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 5320.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 579,011. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8454 CONTRACTS: 3134 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5320 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 8454 CONTRACTS OR 26.29 TONNES.

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5320) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (3134 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  8454 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) ZERO BANKER SHORT COVERING AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)A TINY ADVANCE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT SEPT. MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION;4) FAIR COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  AND  ...ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//WEDNESDAY//$28.00.

SURPRISINGLY THE SPREADERS HAVE NOT STARTED THEIR LIQUIDATION PROCESS AS OF YET.

 

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS//OUTLINE

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON OCT  1)

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 49,714, CONTRACTS OR 49,714 oz OR 154.63 TONNES (17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2924 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 154.63 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 154.63/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.000% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,533,61  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE EXTREMELY LOW)

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       154.63 TONNES (EFP’s AGAIN RISING DUE TO BACKWARDATION/LOWER FUTURE PREMIUMS//THUS LESS COST TO CARRY)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 837 CONTRACTS FROM 157,908, DOWN TO 157,071 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1)    ZERO BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING  , 2) A SMALL  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG GAIN IN OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT., AND 4) MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION,

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 600 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 SEPT: 0 AND DEC. 760 AND MARCH:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 600 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 837 CONTRACTS TO THE 600 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 237 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.185 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $1,41 FALL IN PRICE///

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 56.53 POINTS OR 1.72%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 431.44 POINTS OR 1.82%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 258.67 POINTS OR 1.11%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .90%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8284 /Oil UP TO 40.07 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.77 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8284 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8385 TRADE TALKS STALL////TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS//PANDMEIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

 

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST SURPRISINGLY  ROSE BY BY A FAIR SIZED 3134 CONTRACTS TO 579,011 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL OF $28.00 IN GOLD PRICING /WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE (5320 CONTRACTS),.  THUS,  WE HAD  1)  ZERO BANKER SHORT COVERING AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8454 CONTRACTS,…….. , PLUS WE HAD 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  ANOTHER INCREASE IN TONNAGE  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//SEPT. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED OUR STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 8454 CONTRACTS MENTIONED ABOVE. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS WE HAVE WITNESSED AN INCREASE IN EFP ISSUANCE DUE TO THE LOW PREMIUMS ON THE FUTURE GOLD PRICES AND THUS THE ISSUANCE OF THOSE EFP’S

 

HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS..

 

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 37    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest LOWERS TO 101

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5320 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:   OCT: 200  DEC 5120; FEB// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5320  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 8454 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5320 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A FAIR  SIZED 3134 COMEX CONTRACTS.   

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $28.00).  BUT, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A POSITIVE  26.29 TONNES DESPITE THE  FALL IN  PRICE

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 8454, CONTRACTS OR 845400 OZ OR 26.29 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  579,011 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 57.90 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1800 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1800/2200 OR 81.86% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 322,697 contracts// volume fair/

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  441,583 contracts//  volume: good/raid //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

SEPT 24 /2020

SEPT. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR SEPT GOLD

 

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
2 notice(s)
 200 OZ
(0.00622 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
49 contracts
(4900 oz)
0.1524 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4709 notices
470900 OZ
14.646TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

 

 

 

total customer deposit:  nil     oz

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

 

total withdrawals; nil

 

 

 

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1 //

i) Out of HSBC:  104,458.599adjusted out of the customer and this lands into the dealer account

 

 

 

The front month of SEPT registered a total of 51 contracts for a LOSS of 297 contracts.  We had 298 notices filed on Wednesday, so we gained  1 contracts or an additional 100 oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of Sept. Remember that we have been adding to our gold deliveries despite the raid these past 10 days.

Oct LOST A TINY 767 contracts DOWN to 60,254.  Two major points on this:

a) nobody wants to leave the gold arena

b) we can now safely confirm that a major entity is behind October’s numbers.

Probably Goldman Sachs who has been identified as the major player in the new physical platform at the LME is the one who is accumulating gold in a similar fashion to JPMorgan’s accumulation of silver.  Goldman Sachs needs gold to provide liquidity for that new physical exchange.

November gained 55 contracts to stand at 366.

The big December contract GAINED 3663 contracts UP to 430,903 contracts..

THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH OI FOR OCTOBER AND ITS REFUSAL TO CONTRACT (ROLL TO ANOTHER MONTH). GENERALLY OCTOBER IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE ON OCTOBER FOR PHYSICAL METAL. THE REASON FOR THE RAID WAS GOLD AND OCTOBER’S HIGH OI…THE AIM WAS TO FORCE THESE GUYS FROM TAKING DELIVERY BUT TO NO AVAIL!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had  2 notices filed today for  200 oz

 

FOR THE SEPT 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4709) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT (51 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz per contract) equals 475,800 OZ OR 14.799 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4709, x 100 oz +51 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2) x 100 oz which equals 475,800 oz standing OR 14.799 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a SEPT delivery month (a NON active delivery month).

 

We gained 1 contracts or an additional 100 oz will try their luck searching for metal on this side of the pond. Somebody today again was in urgent need of physical gold.

 

 

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

334,494.256 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  10.389 TONNES

 

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

261,958.320 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.14 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               19.017 tonnes

51,084.609 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.588 tonnes jpm

total pledged gold:  1,300,323.778 oz                                     40.44 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 446.27 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 14.799 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  15,856,584.835 oz or 493.20 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,300,323.775 oz or 40.44 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 14,556,261.0  (452.76 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  14,556,261.0 (452.76 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,749763.703 oz (645.39 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  36,606,348.538 oz 1,138,611 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1012,26 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 

 

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

 

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

SEPT 24/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

INITIAL STANDINGS

SEPT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 29,269.740 oz
CNT
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
2,359,670.411 oz
CNT
JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)
107
CONTRACT(S)
(535,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
24 contracts
 120,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  11,008 contracts

55,040,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposits into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil      oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 2 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i)into JPMorgan:  1,771,973.017 oz

ii) Into CNT:  587,697.394  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan now has 183.135 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.32% of all official comex silver. (183.135 million/371.160 million

 

total customer deposits today:  1,212,595.600   oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of CNT:  25,350.890
ii)out of Delaware: 3918.850. 0z

total withdrawals; 29,269.740    oz

We had 0 adjustments/

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 142.579 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  371.160 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

the front month of SEPTEMBER registered an open interest of 131 contracts thus losing 129 contracts.  We had 193 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED a strong 64 contracts or an additional 320,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of September  as they refused to  morph into London based forwards and thus they also negated a fiat bonus.  Not only are longs standing for delivery over here but also our London boys  exercising serial forward EFP’s circulating over there and  turning them into real physical metal as we now have a full frontal attack on both of our two precious metals.

We thus gained in silver oz standing and in gold despite the vicious raid yesterday.

 

Oct saw another LOSS of 54 contracts to stand at 1943.November LOST 4 contracts to stand at 35,

The big December contract month saw its OI contract by 413 contracts down to 134,523

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPT 2020. contract month is represented by 107 contract(s) FOR 535,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 11,008 x 5,000 oz = 55,040,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT( 131) and the number of notices served upon today 107 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 11,008 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT  (131)- number of notices served upon today (107) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month .equals 55,160,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH.

We GAINED  64 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 320,000 oz. WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH, AS COMEX LONGS LOOK FOR METAL ON THE THIS SIDE OF THE POND!

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 152,975 CONTRACTS // volume strong//

 

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY   159,827.  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME// strong/raid

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 159,827 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.799 billion  OZ 114.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO- 2.25% ((SEPT 24/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.27% to NAV:   (SEPT 24/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/2.25%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 18.89 TRADING 18.23///NEGATIVE 3.24

END

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14TONNES.

SEPT 23//WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 11.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY, A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 18.98 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTER THE GLD///// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.62TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.94 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1259.64TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $10.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT: 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.05 TODAY: A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 15//WITH GOLD UP $2.25 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .43 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD  DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.00 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.92 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 ON THIS 2ND DAY OF A 3 DAY RAID:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 TODAY, WE HAVE 2 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF .87 TONNES AND.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 31//WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES/

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $38.20 TODAY, WE SURPRISINGLY HAD A .59 TONNE WITHDRAWAL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD DOWN 17.50 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1252.09 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $26.70  TODAY/  WE  HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD//RESTS AT 1248.85 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY, WE  HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.20 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.38 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

SEPT 24/ GLD INVENTORY 1267.14 tonnes*

LAST;  908 TRADING DAYS:   +327.73 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 808 TRADING DAYS://+506.26  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 24//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23//WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.048 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.141 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.491 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.43 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.862 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.350MILLION OZ//

SEPT 18. WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.537 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.793 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY:  HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS A) 1.675 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER B) 0.931 MILLION OZ/ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.956 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.63 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.169 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 15  CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.631 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.258 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.430 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 2.WITH SILVER DOWN $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.365 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY REST AT 571.688 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 1//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.982 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.652 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.071 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS  TODAY// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.65 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.074 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24//WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A NO CHANGES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843  MILLION OZ//

 

SEPT 24.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

553.443 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

JPMorgan will pay a one billion dollar fine for rigging precious metals but will still be allowed to fleece investors.

(London’s Financial Times/GATA)

FT: Morgan would pay $1 billion fine for rigging metals and keep trading them

 Section: 

JPMorgan in Talks to Settle Spoofing Claims for $1 Billion

By Laura Noonan
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, September 23, 2020

JPMorgan Chase is in advanced talks with U.S. authorities to pay $1 billion to settle allegations it manipulated metals and Treasuries markets using a technique known as spoofing, according to people familiar with the situation.

The proposed settlement would allow the bank to avoid prosecution over the alleged activities, one of the people familiar with the situation told the Financial Times.

… 

Two former JPMorgan traders — Christian Trunz and John Edmonds — have already pleaded guilty to criminal charges of placing thousand of false orders to manipulate the prices of precious metals between 2007 and 2016.

 

JPMorgan’s former head of metals trading, Michael Nowak, and two other former traders and one former salesperson are contesting federal racketeering charges over their alleged role in what prosecutors described as a “massive multiyear scheme” to manipulate metals markets.

A settlement would end investigations by the Department of Justice, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission into the bank’s culpability for spoofing by its traders in gold, silver, other metals, and U.S. government bonds.

In its annual report published in April, JPMorgan said it was “engaged in discussions with various regulators” about allegations including “unjust enrichment and deceptive acts” relating to the bank’s trading of precious metals and Treasuries.

Two people familiar with the situation said that the settlement would not result in any restrictions on JPMorgan’s trading or operations. One of the people said the bank was negotiating a deferred prosecution agreement, which allows banks to continue with their activities as long as they fulfil certain conditions. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/c6b34081-d3b6-4a85-8fd0-fe4a3b5e7a47

end

iii) Other physical stories:

 

An Algo Controlled System

Posted September 23rd, 2020 at 3:06 PM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

      I have an issue when it comes to raising questions. I love to find the answer or reach a thesis that needs more evidence and time to work thru. One question that came to mind these past few days is the Margin Calls in Silver and Gold and the subsequent drop in the paper contracts which should have happened. This is something we all would have expected but that is not necessarily what is occurring here.

      Last Friday’s Overall Open Interest in Gold was 576,793 when the settled price was calculated at $1,962.10 and today the OI is at 576,231. Only 562 contracts have settled out yet the price has dropped over $95.

      Last Friday’s Overall Open Interest in Silver, during the early morning quote, was calculated at 163,526 Overnighters going against the physicals when the last trade was set at $27.12, with today’s OI is at 158,323. This proves a reduction of 5,203 Overnighters these past 4 days as the price collapsed over $4. The Silver OI reduction (3%) is more than Gold’s and so is the drop, price wise. So why are there so few papered “Longs” not getting out like they’ve done in the past?

      All of us are painfully aware of the Algo systems within our price discovery mechanism, but exactly how do they control the prices when hardly any Open Interest is being moved out or in? Here is the thesis, and like all others, cannot be proven because the entire system is opaque, with very large (and already convicted yet, are still allowed to play) criminal elements in it, that may be using their algo’s, that communicate with each other and await signals in order to react without all that bar room talk, the text messages that came later, then the chatrooms, which are now convictable evidence in court, until recently have been morphed into what we see today, a system that is Algo controlled.

      Let’s use a couple of fake company names to explain the hypothetical thesis; “Silver Long Hedge” and “Silver Short Hedge”.

Silver Long (SL) has 10,000 Long Contracts in December and is Short 10,000 March.

Silver Short (SS) has 10,000 Short Contracts in December and 10,000 Long in March.

      Both of these companies are looking to profit, and both company Algo’s, look for signals to respond to in order to make those profits. Here’s what may be happening; If both Algos see the same signal that says the price should drop, both SL and SS would sell all (or a portion) of their Long Contracts at the same time, then buy back into the spread at sharply lower prices once the Re -“Buy” signal is seen. They can also buy out some of their short contracts (after the dip) to leave the impression that Longs got out, but did they? The prices would change, but by the end of the day, the Open Interest doesn’t.

      In earnest, I do not know if this is the case, but then again, it might be exactly. At the same time the Algos are communicating with each other, the Resolutes keep coming in and are buying up the cheapened merchandise, bypassing the Comex paper game, and draining their supplies. How much longer will the Comex and the governing bodies (that has allowed all this to occur) be able to justify their own existence, will depend on the Comex’s ability, to stay physically liquid. If this thesis has bearing, we might find out how quickly things will change once the new smelter supplies runs dry. That will be the ultimate answer as we await the truth in the numbers.

     An additional thesis if this thesis is convictable; how many stock market hedge funds are looking at the same signals or other signals in commodities, in order to attack the shares of say, the miners? Are these being looked at already or are they totally ignored by our governing bodies? Truth comes out in math and logic, and we await both in the future …

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8284/ GETTING VERY DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8385   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 56.53 POINTS OR 1.72%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 431.44 POINTS OR 1.82%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 4258.67 POINTS OR 1.11%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 94.47/Euro FALLS TO 1.1642

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.46/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 40.07 and Brent: 41.77

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.52%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.87% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.22%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.39: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.01

3k Gold at $1857.10 silver at: 22.19   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 19/100 in roubles/dollar) 77.23

3m oil into the 40 dollar handle for WTI and 41 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.46 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9257 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0776 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.52%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.673% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.408%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.700..

Traders On Edge As Futures Fail To Rebound After Wednesday Rout

US equity futures were subdued and European stocks rebounded from an early selloff as markets tried to stem the Wednesday rout sparked after a range of Fed speakers urged further fiscal stimulus, even as investors braced for another staggering weekly jobless claims figure, the latest evidence of a slowing economic recovery from a pandemic-led recession.

 

The FAAMGs which led a Wall Street rally since April, again edged lower in premarket trading. A 2% slide put Tesla Inc on course for its third straight day of declines following an underwhelming “Battery Day” presentation by Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk. At the same time, big banks including Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan gained between 0.8% and 1.6%. Nikola which is set for one of its biggest weekly declines ever, tumbled another 7.8% as Wedbush downgraded the stock to “underperform”.

The S&P 500 is hovering just above correction territory on waning hopes of more fiscal stimulus – which prompted Goldman overnight to slash its Q4 GDP forecast from 6% to 3% – signs of choppy economic growth and a sell-off in heavyweight technology-related names. The Nasdaq entered correction territory earlier this month, but the blue-chip Dow has outperformed its peers on demand for value-linked stocks such as industrials.

The MSCI World index was down 0.5% in morning trading, its fifth day in the red out of the last six and hovering near a two-month low. “Optimism on the recovery, optimism on the virus, and bets on stimulus were keeping markets well bid, and on all three of these issues, there has been a degree of disappointment this month,” said John Velis, an FX and macro strategist at BNY Mellon.

Despite markets betting on more U.S. fiscal stimulus, political stalemate in Washington continues to frustrate efforts to prop up the world’s biggest economy, beset by one of the worst COVID-19 death rates globally.

“A U.S. fiscal deal was baked into markets and now what you are seeing is that the probability of a deal going through has simply reversed,” said Justin Onuekwusi, a London-based portfolio manager at Legal and General Investment Management. “We have heard this week how important a fiscal deal is to the Federal Reserve but from a political standpoint, focus has moved more towards the election and Supreme Court deliberations rather than the economy,” he added.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index initially slipped as much as 0.8% by, but has since erased most of the losses with improving German business optimism and a strong take-up of the latest European Central Bank liquidity operation providing some relief. After a summer lull in much of Europe, the infection rate has begun to rise sharply, with a number of countries including Britain introducing tougher rules to help limit the spread of the virus.

Earlier in the session, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.7% overnight, while Japan’s Topix index closed 1.1% lower with Takakita and Niitaka falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index retreated 1.7%, with Wuxi Commercial and Guangdong Guanhao High-Tech posting the biggest slides. MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index was down 1.8%.

In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.664%, down 0.5bps. Futures volume stood around 80% of 20-day average level ahead of risk events including 7-year auction and another bevy of Fed speakers including Powell at 10am. Yields remain within a basis point of Wednesday’s closing levels, 10-year around 0.67% with bunds outperforming by 1.5bp on haven flows. The week’s Treasury auction cycle concludes with the sale of $50b in 7-year notes at 1pm ET; Wednesday’s 5-year offering drew a record low yield about a basis point lower than the WI yield at the bidding deadline. High-grade euro zone government bond yields fell across the board on an expectation that stimulus measures would be maintained, with the German 10-year down 2.2 basis points.

In FX, flows into the dollar helped it rise for a fifth straight day following yesterday’s warnings by Federal Reserve officials that more fiscal stimulus is needed to sustain the economic recovery. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced a fifth consecutive day, the longest streak since March, and the greenback touched a two-month high versus the euro at 1.1635, as it remained bid in amid a risk-averse sentiment.

The Norway’s krone fell a sixth consecutive day against the euro, the longest streak since February, to reach more than a four-month low after the central bank said rate hikes remains years away; Governor Oystein Olsen also said current situation doesn’t warrant any further intervention in the Norwegian krone similar to what Norges Bank did earlier when the currency weakened. Australian and New Zealand dollars extended losses as a strengthening greenback combined with soft local rates and speculative client flows weigh on the currencies. The Swiss franc advanced against the euro even as the Swiss National Bank said it’s on alert and ready to “intervene more strongly”after an intense battle earlier this year in response to the franc’s advance to a five-year high against the euro. The pound was steady versus the dollar before U.K. Chancellor Rishi Sunak announces plans to protect jobs from coronavirus upheaval.

Elsewhere among regional rate-setters, the Swiss National Bank maintained its easy monetary policy, but turned less gloomy on the impact of the pandemic. In Britain, meanwhile, the finance minister launched a new jobs support scheme. In emerging markets, Turkey surprised markets with a hike in its policy rate by 200 basis points to 10.25%, sending the lira and bonds higher. Mexico is also set to decide on monetary policy later on Thursday.

 

In commodities, gold continued to drop tracking the rise in negative real rates.

With central bankers in focus globally, Federal Chair Jerome Powell will be watched later in the day when he delivers his third testimony for the week before the Senate Banking Committee, while other Fed officials are scheduled to speak at other events during the day. Investors are also waiting for weekly data due later on Thursday, which is expected to show U.S. jobless claims fell slightly but remained elevated, indicating the world’s largest economy is far from recovering. A similar picture was visible in Europe, where the European Central Bank’s latest Economic Bulletin said unemployment would continue to rise in the euro zone, with little growth in demand seen for consumer goods.

Expected data include jobless claims and new home sales. Accenture, CarMax and Costco are reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,225.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 358.46
  • MXAP down 1.6% to 168.03
  • MXAPJ down 1.9% to 546.00
  • Nikkei down 1.1% to 23,087.82
  • Topix down 1.1% to 1,626.44
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.8% to 23,311.07
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.7% to 3,223.18
  • Sensex down 2.2% to 36,832.76
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 5,875.94
  • Kospi down 2.6% to 2,272.70
  • Brent futures down 0.8% to $41.44/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,855.30
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.43
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to -0.521%
  • Euro down 0.03% to $1.1657
  • Brent Futures down 0.8% to $41.44/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to 0.647%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.224%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The day after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey poured cold water on the chance of negative rates, betting against them via the options market exploded
  • The Swiss National Bank is on alert and ready to “intervene more strongly”after an intense battle earlier this year in response to the franc’s advance to a five- year high against the euro
  • Euro-zone banks took 174.5 billion euros ($203 billion) in another dose of ultra-cheap funding from the European Central Bank. The bids for the targeted loans, known as TLTROs, came from 388 banks, and the takeup was at the high end of economists’ expectations
  • France introduced new measures to fight the rapid resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic in major cities, adding to risks weighing on an already slowing economic recovery
  • U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will set out a new crisis plan to protect jobs and rescue businesses as the coronavirus outbreak forces the U.K. to return to emergency measures
  • German companies are turning increasingly optimistic that government support and a reluctance to return to wide-scale lockdowns will carry the economy through the coronavirus pandemic. The Ifo institute’s business climate index rose to 93.4 in September from 92.5 in August. That was slightly lower than the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey. A gauge of expectations also improved

Asian equity markets were lower on spill-over selling from peers on Wall St where the major indices were dragged by broad weakness across all sectors and hefty losses in the big tech names, while President Trump’s comments also spurred concerns of a contested election. This was after he stated that he thinks the 2020 election will end up at the Supreme Court which is why it is important to have nine justices and later refused to commit when questioned about a peaceful transition of power if he loses the election. ASX 200 (-0.8%) was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and miners, as well as losses in financials after Westpac agreed to pay a record AUD 1.3bln fine over anti-money laundering breaches, while Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) was also subdued as exporters suffered from the recent inflows into the currency and ill-effects of the JPY-risk dynamic. Hang Seng (-1.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.7%) conformed to the broad downbeat tone after a tepid liquidity effort which resulted to a net daily injection of CNY 10bln and it refrained from 7-day reverse repos owing to the National Day Golden Week holiday which begins next Thursday. Furthermore, there was still no significant improvement in US-China related headlines as US Secretary of State Pompeo reiterated calls for US  Governors to increase scrutiny on state pension funds’ investments into Chinese companies, while TikTok filed for a preliminary injunction against President Trump’s ban. Finally, 10yr JGBs were rangebound and failed to benefit from the risk averse tone after similar lacklustre trade in T-notes and with demand also hampered by weaker results at the 40yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • Israel Controversially Tightens Lockdown as Virus Cases Soar
  • South Korea Says North Korea Killed its Citizen, Burned Body
  • Early Pandemic Bets Paid Off Big for a Few Asia Hedge Funds

European equities are now mixed after opening lower across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%) in a continuation of the losses seen on Wall Street yesterday and in APAC hours. That being said, European equity futures came off lows following the cash open and are now mixed on the day whilst futures across the pond have been contained within tight ranges ahead of a slew of Fed speakers scattered throughout the day; currently mixed as well. Back to Europe, broad-based losses are seen across major bourses, but Netherland’s AEX (-0.5%) modestly underperforms as the tech sector lags (in-fitting with Wall Street and APAC performance), with heavy-weight ASML (-2.2%) weighing on the index and broader sector. The energy sector also resides as one of the straddlers amid price action in the complex. Overall sectors are mostly lower and somewhat of a defensive bias. The sectoral breakdown paints a similar picture, but performance is similarly off lows, with Travel & Leisure towards the bottom of the pile, whilst real estate, particularly in the UK, are supported ahead of Chancellor Sunak’s unveiling of further supportive measures. In terms of individual movers, AA (+4.6%) is firmer after confirming that a consortium of Towerbrook Capital and Warburg Pincus has expressed strong interest in pursuing a possible cash offer for the Co. Elsewhere, Veolia (-1.3%) CEO said the group is to hold discussions with Engie (-1.0%) and did not rule out increasing its bid for Engie’s holding of Suez (-3.9%).

Top European News

  • Norges Bank Surprises Market as Rate Hike Remains Years Away
  • JPMorgan Joins Rivals in Pausing London Office Return Plans
  • German Business Optimism Improves With Economy on Recovery Path
  • Virus Forces Sunak to Spend More on Saving U.K. Jobs, Firms

In FX, the SNB and Norges Bank both maintained benchmark rates, as widely expected, but the reaction in respective currencies has been quite contrasting given relative stability in the Franc around 0.9250 vs the Dollar and 1.0775 against the Euro compared to Eur/Nok rallying further through 11.0000 towards 11.1750 at one stage. It seems that the former has acknowledged no change in the Swiss Central Bank’s valuation of the Chf and perhaps more regular updates on intervention, while the Krona is taking heed of the rate path projecting steady policy for the next couple of years against some expectation that a hike may come before the 4th quarter of 2022.

  • USD – Demand for the Dollar has accelerated again, and this time mainly on safe-haven grounds after a sharp retreat in US stocks and knock-on declines in global amidst the ongoing recurrence of COVID-19. The DXY has duly extended gains to 94.558 and pull-backs are getting shallower and more fleeting with the latest bout of consolidation stopping well ahead of 94.000, at 94.235. However, some G10 rivals continue to display a degree of resilience and resistance for the index resides relatively close by around 94.632 (March 9 high).
  • AUD/NZD – No respite for the beleaguered Aussie or Kiwi, as Aud/Usd straddles 0.7050 having let go of the 0.7100 handle and Nzd/Usd struggles to retain 0.6500+ status following NZ trade data for August showing a deficit vs surplus due to a marked slowdown in exports rather than moderately higher imports.
  • GBP/JPY/EUR/CAD – Sterling continues to defy the odds and gravity, with Cable resisting pressure below 1.2700 and Eur/Gbp probing 0.9150 after the cross formed a near double top around 0.9220 on Tuesday and yesterday ahead of Chancellor Sunak’s mini budget and more commentary from BoE Governor Bailey. Meanwhile, support at 105.50 seems to have arrested the Yen’s reversal from circa 104.00 and Usd/Jpy may be kept in check by decent option expiry interest spanning 104.45-55 (1.1 bn) to 105.70-75 (1.4 bn) with even more rolling off at the 105.00 strike (1.7 bn). Similarly, after a rather non-descript German Ifo survey in terms of key metrics vs consensus and an even more forgettable monthly ECB report, the Euro could be contained by expiries between 1.1600-10 and 1.1700-10 (1.7 bn and 1.2 bn respectively), though veering towards the downside after a hefty TLTRO3 take up. Elsewhere, the Loonie has recoiled to sub-1.3400 in wake of Canadian PM Trudeau’s stark warning that an Autumn bout of the coronavirus could be significantly worse than the original one in Spring, as a 2nd wave is already spreading across the country’s 4 biggest provinces.
  • SEK/EM – Rhetoric from Riksbank’s Skingsley underlining limited space to cut the Swedish repo rate and discounting Crown developments have not prevented the Sek depreciating to almost 10.6000 before bouncing vs the Eur, but the Try and Mxn will be hoping for more support from the CBRT and Banxico. On that note, the NBH has helped the Huf via a 15 bp hike in the 1 week deposit rate having left the benchmark on hold on Tuesday.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are essentially flat firmly off overnight lows and relatively contained in early European hours amid a lack of fresh fundamental catalysts ahead of a raft of Central Bank speakers. Complex-specific newsflow has also been light, although the Iraqi oil ministry denied earlier reports, citing the Iraqi oil minister, that OPEC+ agreed for Iraq to increase oil exports. Iraq added that it is fully committed to the supply deal. WTI resides just below USD 40.00bbl (vs. current range of 39.12-40.00) while its Brent counterpart trades towards the top end of today’s range around USD 41.75/bbl (vs. current range 41.27-84). Elsewhere, spot gold mirrors USD action and briefly dipped below USD 1850/oz, while spot silver remains on a downward trajectory and underperforms in the precious metal space as it probes USD 22/oz to the downside. In terms of base metals, LME copper prices are softer amid the firmer USD and broad losses across equities. Conversely, Shanghai steel futures rose almost 3% amid future demand speculation as prices flipped into backwardation.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 840,000, prior 860,000; Continuing Claims, est. 12.3m, prior 12.6m
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 47.7
  • 10am: New Home Sales, est. 890,000, prior 901,000; New Home Sales MoM, est. -1.22%, prior 13.9%
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 14, prior 14

Fed speakers:

  • 8:50am: Fed’s Kaplan speaks at Texas Christian University
  • 10am: Powell, Mnuchin Testify Before Senate Banking Committee
  • 12pm: Fed’s Bullard Discusses Economy and Monetary Policy
  • 1pm: Fed’s Evans Discusses the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
  • 1pm: Fed’s Barkin Speaks to the Money Marketeers of NYU
  • 2pm: Fed’s Barkin Takes Part in Virtual Discussion on Economy
  • 2pm: Fed’s Williams Discusses Virus Impact on Communities of…
  • 2pm: Fed-s Bostic Speaks to Bankers on Racism

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday marked 6 months since lockdown started here in the U.K. and with the tightening restrictions announced over the last 36 hours I suspect we’ll have at least another 6 months of similarly restrictive conditions. How time flies. On that you may be amused to know my wife and I had a relatively big row on Tuesday night which I can now mention as we kissed and made up last night. In it she said one of the most hurtful things I have ever had directed at me. She said, or rather shouted ……. “Why can’t you just go back to the office full time…”. It was a hammer blow. I just said “fine I will…” which given the new restrictions might end up being illegal had I followed through. You won’t be surprised to learn the argument was about kids and childcare.

So Covid-19 looks like remaining at the epicentre of our lives for months or even quarters to come. Indeed Europe saw further increases in cases yesterday, as yet more signs emerged of further restrictions heading into winter. US markets fell sharply after Europe went home as the continual negative blows finally took their toll.

The S&P 500 lost -2.37% with over 94% of stocks in the index lower yesterday and 23 of 24 industries down on the day. Consumer durables and apparel were the one exception (+2.69%) on the back of Nike (+8.76%), who was the top performer in the overall S&P after the company posted much stronger results than expected. Tech (-3.21%) and Energy (-4.55%) stocks lost further ground too, with the NASDAQ falling -3.02%. Tesla saw one of the larger declines in the index with a -10.34% dip as reports came through of a network outage on top of the “Battery Day” disappointments we discussed yesterday. The VIX volatility index rose 1.7pts to 28.6 in its second largest daily jump since 3 Sept, when the current market weakness began.

Risk-off sentiment has continued this morning with the Nikkei (-0.77%), Hang Seng (-1.78%), Shanghai Comp (-1.46%), Kospi (-1.79%), Asx (-0.94%) and India’s Nifty (-1.26%) all down. European futures on the Stoxx 50 (-1.04%), FTSE 100 (-0.89%) and Dax (-1.01%) are also pointing to a weak open in the region. Meanwhile, futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading broadly flat. In Fx, the US dollar index is up a further +0.09% this morning and on course for the strongest weekly performance since April. Elsewhere, crude oil prices are down c. -1%.

On the virus it’s beginning to feel a bit like March-lite. In France, it was announced by Health Minister Veran last night that the country would be divided into “zones” by alert level and they would empower local authorities to tighten restrictions before a state of emergency would be declared within them. Marseille, the second largest city in the country and the Carribbean Island of Guadeloupe are the only “maximum” level zones today. The minster also announced that bars and restaurants in the Paris region as well as other major cities will close at 10pm, similar to the rules recently laid out in the UK. Attendance at large public events will be cut down to 1,000 from 5,000, while small gatherings over 10 people are banned in those “maximum” level areas.

Meanwhile in Germany, the foreign minister Heiko Maas went into quarantine as a result of one of his security detail having the virus, even though an initial test on Maas came up negative. Germany also issued travel warnings to more parts of France. Elsewhere, China will ease restrictions on entry of some foreign nationals as the country said foreigners holding residence permits for work, personal matters and reunions will be allowed to enter China starting September 28.

In terms of case numbers, the UK reported a further 6,178 yesterday, which was the highest number since May 1, and sent the 7-day average above 4,500. That comes ahead of an announcement today from Chancellor Sunak in the House of Commons, who tweeted yesterday that he’d be speaking about “our plans to continue protecting jobs through the winter.” With the furlough scheme scheduled to conclude at the end of October, there have been reports that Sunak is looking at a German-style wage subsidy program, similar to the Kuzarbeit program, which would see the government top up the wages of part-time workers.

Over in the US, there was some positive news on the vaccine front, as Johnson & Johnson announced yesterday that they were launching their Phase 3 trial, which will involve a single vaccine dose given to up to 60,000 participants. This is different to a number of the other candidates, which involve a second dose, and Dr Fauci said in a statement that this “may be especially useful in controlling the pandemic if shown to be protective after a single dose.” J&J said that they anticipate the first batches could be available for emergency use authorisation in early 2021, should they be proven to be safe and effective. Meanwhile various media reports suggest that the UK government is considering carrying out the first studies that would deliberately expose healthy people to the coronavirus in a bid to accelerate the development of a vaccine. The report further added that a growing number of volunteers have signed up to take part in such studies should researchers decide to proceed. This could help AstraZeneca in speeding up its Phase 3 trials as they continue to remain on halt in the US. Bloomberg suggested this wouldn’t start until January though if it got the green light.

Late last night, aPresident Trump news conference signalled that he may try to veto any tightening of FDA rules surrounding the emergency clearance of a coronavirus vaccine. This may increase concerns that the vaccine is being politicised. On the other side, overnight we also heard from Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Stephen Hahn, the commissioner of the FDA, who both said that drug companies still face hurdles to authorising a vaccine. Dr. Fauci said that he expected a vaccine to be authorized at the earliest by November, while Dr Hahn stressed that the FDA would soon issue a number of additional guidelines. Elsewhere, the president again criticised mail-in ballots and as we showed in yesterday’s CoTD (link here) the US public is also very distrustful of mail-in ballots.

From central bankers, it was the 2nd day out of 3 featuring a testimony from Fed Chair Powell, and he was again asked about how the Fed could further help Main Street. The Fed Chair noted that the central bank had “done basically all of the things that we can think of” and reiterated that the economy needed fiscal stimulus. We also heard from a bevy of other Fed governors who all sought to convey the importance of fiscal aid. The Fed’s Rogerson noted that the “toughest part” of the recovery is still ahead, and that he was less optimistic than peers due to a lack of fiscal help and a second Covid-19 wave. The Fed’s Evans noted that members were concerned that the fiscal stimulus which was embedded in the FOMC’s outlook would not come to fruition, saying that the estimated jobless numbers had factored in roughly $1 trillion of fiscal support. Fed Governor Quarles joined the refrain of the day in asking for more fiscal help. As we have noted, the Senate and House are clearly more focused on the election – and also now a supreme court seat – than getting an additional fiscal stimulus bill through in the short term. While the Fed member’s spoke throughout the New York afternoon, we saw a clear move out of risk assets and the dollar index rose to an 8-week high, finishing +0.43%, having risen every session this week.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the STOXX 600 continued to come back from Monday’s loses, gaining +0.55% before the US later slump. The index was up as much as +1.5% in early trading before a mix of deteriorating virus news flow from Europe and negative market sentiment from the US saw the index fall into the close. Over in the fixed income sphere, Italian sovereign debt continued to outperform following the country’s regional election results, and the yield on 30yr BTPs fell a further -1.9bps yesterday to an all-time low of 1.768%. Spreads also narrowed further, with those on both 10yr Italian and Spanish debt over bunds reaching their tightest levels since late February when investors began to realise the pandemic’s impact on Europe. In the US, 10yr rates were up modestly (+0.2bps) at 0.672%. However there was a decline in inflation expectations – especially given some of the Fed rhetoric – with breakevens down -1.9bps to 1.603%, their lowest closing level in 6 weeks. Between the decline in inflation expectations and the rally in the greenback discussed earlier gold had its worst day in over a month, falling -1.94% to close under $1900/oz for the first time since 23 July. With the precious metal falling, its more volatile peers silver (-6.64%) and platinum (-3.08%) saw deep losses as well.

In terms of yesterday’s data, the main highlight came from the flash PMI readings, where there were clear signs that the services sector in Europe was being affected by the second wave of Covid-19. The Euro Area services PMI fell to 47.6 (vs. 50.6 expected), so below the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction, with both Germany (49.1) and France (48.5) underperforming expectations. The big question as we enter Q4 next week will be whether activity can avoid a decline in the face of a virus resurgence. Manufacturing was more positive however, and the Euro Area (53.7), French (50.9) and German (56.6) numbers were all in expansionary territory. PMI readings were comparatively better in the US, showing continued momentum in the recovery though they were slightly lower than in August. The composite reading was just 2 tenths lower at 54.4, as services were just under expectations at 54.6 after being 55.0 last month. The country’s manufacturing numbers were in line with expectations (53.5), and actually up 0.4 from last month.

To the day ahead now, and the data highlights include the German Ifo business climate indicator for September, French business confidence for September, while from the US we’ll get the weekly initial jobless claims, new home sales for August and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell at the Senate Banking Committee, as well as the Fed’s Bullard, Evans, Barkin, Williams, Kaplan and Bostic. Otherwise, we’ll hear from Bank of England Governor Bailey, ECB chief economist Lane, and the ECB will release its latest Economic Bulletin. In addition, both the Turkish and Mexican central banks will be deciding on monetary policy.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 56.53 POINTS OR 1.72%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 431.44 POINTS OR 1.82%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 258.67 POINTS OR 1.11%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .90%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8284 /Oil UP TO 40.07 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.77 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8284 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8385 TRADE TALKS STALL////TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS//PANDMEIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/PORK

China has been massively accumulating frozen pork reserves after a huge percentage of its pig herd has been wiped out by the African swine flu.  Now it seems that these reserves are running out

(zerohedge)

 

China Pork Reserves At Risk Of ‘Running Out In Months’ As Prices Soar 

China could be on the brink of exhausting its massive frozen pork reserves as the country’s pig herd is wiped out by African swine fever.

Declining reserves are particularly bad news for the Communist Party of China, which is worried that it might not be able to prevent another destabilizing surge in prices.

For more color on China’s strategic pork reserves, Enodo Economics, a London-based consultancy firm, quoted by the Financial Times, said reserves fell by 452,000 tons from Sept. 2019 to Aug. 2020. This means the country’s pork reserves are at dangerously low levels.

It’s unclear how much of China’s latest pork imports have been diverted to state stockpiles – but Diana Choyleva, Enodo’s chief economist, said China has about 100,000 tons of frozen pork left in reserves, and “at this rate, within two to three months they’ll be out.”

FT notes the reserve numbers provided by Enodo are in-line with a recent livestock report via US agricultural attaché in Beijing that said, “pork reserves appear to have been mostly depleted by the third quarter of 2020.” 

China’s pork reserves have been CPC’s primary weapon against soaring wholesale pork prices this year – preventing prices from breaching Rmb 50.

As prices continue to climb amid dwindling reserves, the CPC will need to increase imports of frozen pork from the US or Latin America, limiting supplies of fresh pork even further (Chinese consumers typically prefer fresh to frozen, and have been known to be suspicious of China’s frozen reserves). As tensions continue to complicate the trading relationship between China and the US, the pork shortage could become one of the most pressing domestic issues facing the world’s second-largest economy.

end
HONG KONG
Joshua Wong is arrested for breaking national security law.
(zerohedge)

Prominent Hong Kong Activist Joshua Wong Arrested For Breaking ‘National Security’ Law

In the latest Hong Kong crackdown on a major dissident figure over actions dating back to the 2019 pro-democracy protests, Hong Kong student-protest leader Joshua Wong has been arrested again on Thursday in what he says is the third case against him related to his activism.

The Associated Press reports that Wong was arrested when he went to check in at Hong Kong’s Central Police Station in keeping with his bail requirements.

Wong and his team broke the news in a tweet sent after he left the police station on bail once again. As the tweet states, the charges under the new national security law pertain to an Oct. 5 “unauthorized assembly.” Wong is also accused of violating HK Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s anti-mask order.

Wong gained international notoriety for his work as a leader of the 2014 Umbrella Movement. However, he took a mostly low-key role in the leaderless pro-democracy demonstrations that carried on for the latter half of last year.

Wong rose to prominence as a student leader during the 2014 Umbrella Movement protests for universal suffrage, and is among a growing number of activists being charged for various relatively minor offenses since Beijing imposed a sweeping national security law on the territory that has severely restricted political speech.

He played a low-key role in mostly leaderless and sometimes violent anti-government protests last year that led to Beijing imposing the security law. However, with Beijing’s encouragement, Hong Kong authorities have been pursuing charges against major opposition figures for illegal assembly and other minor infractions in what some call a campaign to harass and intimidate.

Wong’s arrest follows the latest arrest of Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai, whose company, Next Digital, runs one of HK’s largest newspapers, which has taken a firmly independent, pro-democracy line.

Both Wong and Lai have vowed to resist the measures taken under the new national security law, which gives authorities broad latitude to punish anyone for pro-democracy speech, which Beijing views as “terroristic” and “seccessionist” rhetoric, encouraged by foreign agitators.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK

With threats of new lockdowns British citizens are panic buying and emptying shelves: daily COVID cases are at record levels

(zerohedge)

UK Grocers Stave Off Panic Buying Amid 2nd Lockdown Fears; Daily COVID Case Record Smashed

Britain is scrambling to avoid a second lockdown after its first one six months ago, with PM Boris Johnson just introducing expanded new social distancing rules across the UK, as the government’s top adviser Sir Patrick Vallance warns “the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days.” 

Specifically the latest surge in COVID-19 cases at current rates could mean 50,000 cases a day by mid-October, Vallance warned at the start of the week. In introducing new measures to fight the spread Tuesday night, Johnson urged citizens to “summon discipline, resolve and a spirit of togetherness.” The new measures will last a whopping six months with warnings of “a difficult winter”— also at a moment total infection numbers approach the half-million mark (as of Wednesday: 409,729 people tested positive since the start, including 41,862 deaths).

However all the dire pandemic predictions have naturally resulted in a surge of panic buying, similar to what happened across the West and in the United States as lockdowns hit last Spring.

 

AFP via Getty Images 

“Supermarket bosses have urged shoppers not to start panic buying, while Asda is bringing in 1,000 safety marshals, as the industry braces for a potential change in shopping habits ahead of new lockdown restrictions,” The Guardian reports late Wednesday.

Discount supermarket chains Tesco and Aldi urged customers this week not to start stockpiling goods, saying was “unnecessary” and seeking to calm fears of disruption in supply chains.

Aldi in the UK, for example, posted a public statement saying:

“There is no need to buy more than you usually would. I would like to reassure you that our stores remain fully stocked and ask that you continue to shop considerately.”

“We have remained open for our customers throughout the pandemic and will continue to have daily deliveries, often multiple times a day, across all of our products.”

And CEO Dave Lewis of the popular store Tesco said in a televised interview that Britons should not panic: “The message would be one of reassurance. I think the UK saw how well the food industry managed last time, so there’s very good supplies of food,” he said, describing an improved plan for rapid restocking.

“We just don’t want to see a return to unnecessary panic buying because that creates a tension in the supply chain that’s not necessary,” he added.

Via NPR: If the U.K.’s rate of new coronavirus cases doubles four more times, Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance said, “you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day.”

Given the record number of new cases, the sense of fear and panic is not likely to abate in the short term:

New UK coronavirus cases hit 6,178 on Wednesday, according to the latest government data. The number is the highest daily level since 1 May, when the UK was in full lockdown.

Here were the numbers as of the prime minister’s Tuesday night address:

Local UK grocery stores have reported they’ve started hiring and stationing extra security personnel in preparation to monitor both numbers of shoppers at once, and mask and other guidelines.

END
GERMANY/WIRECARD
Wirecard was a fraud right from the beginning.  Assets that remain 428 million euros against a 3.2 billion euros total loss
A magnificent fraud equal to Bernie Madoff and it went on for so long.
(zerohedge)

WIrecard’s Business ‘Almost Entirely Fraudulent’, Auditors Uncover $1BN Loss, Report Finds

Carmine Di Sibio, the international chairman of EY, said in a letter to clients published earlier this month that  while he “regrets” the firm’s staggering lapse in supervising Wirecard (something the firm has continued to blame entirely on Wirecard’s deceptions, along with the invisible hand of Russian intelligence), the incident was a lesson learned, though he insisted that EY was ultimately “successful” in detecting the fraud.

While that’s technically true, it’s also true that dozens of red flags surfaced over the years that seemed to openly hint at the ongoing massive fraud operating just below the surface. And as auditors, regulators and prosecutors sift through the wreckage, they’re uncovering more stunning details prompting them to ask themselves: How did Wirecard’s shell game continue for so long without anybody speaking up?

The Financial Times, a paper that put its reputation on the line to back its reporting on Wirecard, and was ultimately vindicated after facing startling pushback from Wall Street analysts, Wirecard and German regulators, obtained a copy of an early report from Wirecard’s administrator. As bankruptcy courts pick through the wreckage, the report reveals that the fraud at Wirecard ran much deeper than the Southeast Asia business that was previously reported as the locus of the fraud.

In reality, Wirecard had only a few profitable business lines. And the stupefying staff and operational bloat that the company carried is almost shocking. Just imagine: Thousands of employees, shuffling paper, performing “busywork” with no real purpose like a nightmarish, real-life take on “Office Space”.

The €1.9 billion in fraudulent profits Wirecard reported between the beginning of 2015 and Q1 2020 was actually a €740 million ($860) loss. Even if the fraud hadn’t been uncovered when it did – even if the FT had never printed a word – the company would have eventually dissolved, as the burn rate far outstripped any reasonable expectation of income or capital raised.

Furthermore, bankruptcy court has determined that the real value of Wirecard’s assets is just €428 million, an amount dwarfed by the €3.2 billion in debt Wirecard carried when it collapsed.

Wirecard’s fabricated Asian business was not its only deception. The rest of the once-lauded German payment provider’s business was chaotic, beset by byzantine reporting lines, hobbled by lamentable IT and racking up losses, according to a report by Wirecard’s administrator and accounts of former employees. The picture that emerges of the Wirecard businesses that did exist is a stark contrast to the one painted by former chief executive Markus Braun, who hailed the group as a highly profitable pioneer in the payments industry. It reveals the scale on which the company, Germany’s biggest corporate fraud in decades, also misled investors about its real businesses. “Only a few units of the group were actually involved in conducting operative business that was customer-facing and generated revenue,” the administrator Michael Jaffé wrote in his report, a copy of which was seen by the Financial Times.

So, what did Wirecard spend all this money on? Well, certainly not IT. The report cited by the FT shows that Wirecard’s businesses ran on a hodgepodge of IT systems that were virtually unworkable. Any IT auditor would have noted significant issues, they said.

Its computer systems were inherited from companies acquired over the years and never fully integrated. Wirecard Bank, for instance, is still running on software originally developed for Germany’s small co-operative banks and which will be switched off by its IT service provider by the end of this year, according to people familiar with the matter.  “If IT auditors had been professional and serious, huge risks, weaknesses and non-compliance issues would have emerged a long time ago,” according to a former Wirecard IT employee, who was scathing about the “unbelievable brittleness of [Wirecard’s] IT infrastructure”.

Even up until its final months before diving into bankruptcy, Wirecard continued to expand its head count. All told, the company had more than 6,000 employees around the world. But only a fraction of them were needed to run the business.

Even as Wirecard faced increasing scrutiny of its accounting, the group’s headcount continued to rise, climbing by a quarter from early last year to 6,300 at the time of its implosion. Over the same period, its real revenues grew at less than half that rate, according to the administrator. The report points to bloated costs and a colossal amount of corporate waste. “Employees never faced the necessity to reduce the services they were using to those that were really needed as cash was abundantly available in the past,” it noted, adding that the company was suffering from “excessive overhead and personnel capacities”. “Only a fraction” of the employees were actually required to run Wirecard’s non-fraudulent business, the report found.

With this rate of burn, the company would have needed to raise money by the end of the year, or face insolvency.

By the time it unravelled in late June, the total was €10m a week and the company’s own internal planning predicted that figure would rise to more than €15m — some €200m for the third quarter as a whole, according to the administrator’s report. At that rate, Wirecard would have needed to raise fresh cash by the end of this year to pay its bills.

Wirecard’s “totally opaque” structure and “small business mentality” meant that its 55 subsidiaries were all effectively siloed off from one another. The main office in Munich had no idea what was going on elsewhere. in retrospect, it’s a setup seemingly designed to enable an ongoing fraud.

If extravagant spending is one of Mr Jaffé’s findings, another is what the report describes as Wirecard’s “totally opaque” and inefficient structure, consisting of at least 55 subsidiaries scattered over four continents. Staff at its headquarters on the outskirts of Munich did not know what the group’s different units were doing, the administrator concluded, with neither their tasks and responsibilities — or the payments and loans between the divisions — properly recorded. There was “a small business mentality” at many of its units, former employees told the FT, describing businesses that Wirecard had hoovered up around the world and largely left to their own devices.

The internal chaos led to bizarre outcomes. A team of IT specialists, working in Athens, but part of a subsidiary with headquarters in New Zealand, provided services to Wirecard’s German HQ that were not needed, the administrator found. In another example, when the administrator asked managers at a different Asian-based subsidiary about how they contributed to the group, the reply was “we don’t really know”, according to a person briefed on the matter.

The FT concluded its report with a comment from a German finance professor who argued that the fraud should have been caught earlier, and the fact that any “Big 4” firm would miss such conspicuous red flags is too difficult to believe. Perhaps a blind eye was turned. Or maybe auditors really were blinded by ex-CEO Markus Baram’s marketing prowess, that they simply didn’t question it when the company launched into technical explanations of its – totally fictitious – business.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

Iran taunts the huge Nimitz carrier

(zerohedge)

IRGC Taunts US With Spy Drone Close-Ups Of Nimitz Carrier In Strait Of Hormuz

Iranian state media on Wednesday published a photo set showing the US carrier group led by USS Nimitz transiting the Strait of Hormuz which Tehran says was gained after domestic-build spy drones “intercepted” the carrier.

State-run Tasnim reports: “In remarks on Wednesday, IRGC Navy Commander Rear Admiral Ali Reza Tangsiri said the homegrown drone has detected the US carrier strike group before the flotilla cruised through the Strait of Hormuz and into the waters of the Persian Gulf.”

The Nimitz along with battleship escorts sailed through the area last Friday, according to separate reports.

 

Newly published Iranian military photos, via Tasnim News

Tunsgiri made the remarks upon the occasion of a military ceremony marking the IRGC’s naval force receiving nearly 200 domestic produced drones and helicopters.

The IRGC Rear admiral described, “Monitoring and tracking all maritime movements in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of ​​Oman will be made possible by these drones that will greatly increase our capabilities in this area.”

The US sail through appears to have occurred without incident despite the Iranian drone mission.

The drone photo set had already been circulating among Middle East analysts and think tanks in the West, which confirmed their authenticity.

Iranian media and officials are now hailing the domestic-produced drone spy mission as a success, and no doubt the reason the photo set has been released alongside English-language state media headlines is to display the IRGC’s advancing capabilities in “securing” Hormuz.

The Associated Press also confirmed the US carrier is in the Persian Gulf :

The Nimitz, and several other warships, passed last Friday through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important chokepoint for oil shipments, the U.S. Navy had said in what was described as a “scheduled maneuver.”

Should Iran continue with such provocative drone missions so near US ships in the vital gulf waterway, it’s only a matter of time before there’s escalation based on an incident, likely in the form of the US blasting Iran’s UAVs out of the sky.

END
TURKEY/ 
Turkey in trouble as its foreign reserves are collapsing by the day.  They unexpectedly hiked rates trying to stem the losses of those reserves.  They will default in short order
(zerohedge)

USDTRY Drops Like A Stone After Turkish Central Bank Unexpectedly Hikes By 200 bps

With the Turkish economy hammered as a result of a collapse in global tourism, the country’s FX reserves dwindling by the day preventing the infamous Turkish interventions to stabilize the currency, Moody’s warning that Turkey faces an imminent balance of payments crisis, and the entire world cutting rates and easing to stimulate economies, the last thing Wall Street expected this morning from the CBRT was a rate hike (even though the Turkish Lira had been hitting daily record lows every day for the past two weeks).

And yet moments ago, the Central Bank of Turkey shocked investors when it announced a whopping 200bps hike in the one week repo rate, from 8.25% to 10.25%, the first hike from Turkey in two years following an aggressive easing cycle which was unleashed when the rate hit a record 24% in late 2018.

Until now, political pressure from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has demanded lower rates, forced the CBRT to tighten by stealth: instead of hiking the main policy rate, the central bank had shut access to the one-week repo window, forcing banks to borrow at more expensive liquidity facilities. In the end, the central bank was forced to hike rates as the lira hit a record low against the dollar and inflation is still in double digits, while the average cost of CBRT funding has risen by almost 300 basis points since mid-July.

Wall Street economists had noted that the combination of an elevated risk premium, the challenging inflation outlook and subdued inflows suggested that the CBT was likely to implement further tightening, but consensus was that this would happen via liquidity measures.

Whether the hike was also driven by Turkey’s obsession with hammering TRY shorts remains unknown but the official explanation from the CBRT is that it decided to increase the policy rate by 200bps to restore the disinflation process and “support price stability” adding that “the Committee assessed that the tightening steps taken since August should be reinforced in order to contain inflation expectations and risks to the inflation outlook. Accordingly, the Committee decided to increase the policy rate by 200 basis points to restore the disinflation process and support price stability.”

Furthermore, unlike most other countries which are desperate to stimulate their economies, Turkey appears content with recent trends, noting that “economic activity is recovering markedly in the third quarter owing to gradual steps towards normalization and the strong credit impulse.”

The full statement is below:

While global economic activity has shown signs of partial recovery in the third quarter following the normalization steps taken by several countries, uncertainties on global economic recovery remain high. Advanced and emerging economies continue to maintain expansionary monetary and fiscal stances. The pandemic disease is closely monitored for its evolving global impact on capital flows, financial conditions, international trade and commodity prices.

Economic activity is recovering markedly in the third quarter owing to gradual steps towards normalization and the strong credit impulse. Recent monetary and fiscal measures that aim to contain negative effects of the pandemic on the Turkish economy contributed to financial stability and economic recovery by supporting the potential output of the economy. The normalization trend recently observed in commercial loans has started in consumer loans as well. The recent upturn in imports, which has resulted from deferred demand as well as pandemic-related liquidity and credit policies, is expected to moderate with the phasing out of these policy measures. Although tourism revenues declined due to the pandemic, easing of travel restrictions has started to contribute to a partial improvement. The recovery in exports of goods, relatively low levels of commodity prices and the level of the real exchange rate will support the current account balance in the upcoming periods.

Pandemic-related supply-side inflationary factors were expected to gradually phase out during the normalization process and demand-driven disinflationary effects were expected to become more prevalent. Yet, as a result of fast economic recovery with strong credit momentum, and financial market developments, inflation followed a higher-than-envisaged path. The Committee assessed that the tightening steps taken since August should be reinforced in order to contain inflation expectations and risks to the inflation outlook. Accordingly, the Committee decided to increase the policy rate by 200 basis points to restore the disinflation process and support price stability.

The Committee assesses that maintaining a sustained disinflation process is a key factor for achieving lower sovereign risk, lower long-term interest rates, and stronger economic recovery. Keeping the disinflation process in track with the targeted path requires the continuation of a cautious monetary stance. In this respect, monetary stance will be determined by considering the indicators of the underlying inflation trend to ensure the continuation of the disinflation process. The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability and financial stability objectives.

In kneejerk response, the Turkish Lira jumped as much as 1.9% to 7.5572 per dollar before fading some of the gains to 7.6165.

It is too early to tell whether this surge can be sustained: while the drop in the lira may have been halted for now, the rate hike will only add to the economic pressure, and could well force the CBRT to reverse in coming months should the situation deteriorate further. In addition to economic considerations, traders are also focusing on the latest geopolitical developments: the EU leader summit scheduled for today was delayed to October 1-2 where Turkey’s tensions with Greece and Cyprus over Mediterranean Sea drilling will be discussed.

end

6.Global Issues

Bill Blain on the upcoming storm!

(Bill Blain)(

Bill Blain’s Financial Weather Forecast: “I Feel A Storm Approaching”

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

A Falling Glass

“The storm comes. Use it to learn how to sail skillfully.”

There is a distinct chill in the air when it comes to markets this morning. Whatever Mnuchin and Powell say, the absence of further stimulus in the run up to a possibly tumultuous American election that may stretch uncertainty till Inauguration day in Jan 2021 is dominating the action in the US. (What kinds confusion might occur as they argue who runs the country..?) The “risks are weighted to the downside” says the Fed. The rising dollar is like a falling barometer telling us a Gale is coming.

The glass is falling… 

Here in Europe, the dominant force is the Coronavirus, recession and jobs. It’s not just a UK crisis. Growth has fled. Recession in a sinking European economy will deepen. Even Sweden is admitting rising infections require a response – which will be measured, minimal and left to individuals to enforce. Something must be seriously wrong in France – they are copying Boris with 10 pm bar closings. France admitting England is right? That is serious m*rde. It’s not just stocks. Bond markets are beginning to sag with credit under increasing pressure. It’s a sign confidence is waning.

What more can governments and central banks do? We’ve thrown the kitchen sink at the virus, but the numbers are rising. Central Banks have cut rates to historically lowest levels ever and economic activity is falling… QE Infinity promises liquidity is not an issue – but holders want to sell…

Arr… Capt’n.. I can feel a storms a’coming… 

It’s been feeling autumnal all month – this morning I was woken by lashing rain, followed by  a clear blue sky at 7.00 am. As I finish the Porridge, its blowing half-pelicans out there! Even blowing the young olives off the trees on the balcony in front of me. It’s an equinoxal gale – with more rain and wind to come. I know that because I watched the weather forecast.

Markets in these uncertain times feel much the same, hope followed by despair… Up and down… However, Financial forecasting of markets is not a science – it remains a dark art. Markets are all about behaviours – which are notoriously difficult to predict.

There are the market chartists – who pour over carefully constructed charts, lines and curves seeking logic in numbers while scrabbling for hints on what markets might do. They rely on the properties of magical number series like Fibonacci or Elliot Wave rules to determine the up and downs of prices. (I suspect many of them hedge their prognostications by also examining the livers of slaughtered sheep to divine the day’s financial auguries.) And, yes, it worries me that computer algorithms are running markets based on what the chart’s experience tells them..

In the past weather lore was considered essential knowledge for farmers, traders, and sailors. Knowing what the sky, hills, trees, the behaviours of cattle and sheep, and clouds were telling about the weather was critical. Experienced countrymen and sailors with a “weather eye” could read the signs. They could tell it was going to rain by the leaves on trees turning inside out, a shift in the wind, a sudden chill or heat in the air, or the cattle lying down. If the sheep were hiding in the deep combes and folds of the valley, then a wind was coming. If the waves were developing white-horses, then a blow was imminent. Grey mares high in the sky – thin whispy cirrus clouds like a horse’s tail – meant a front was approaching and likely to being rain – time to get the harvest in, or to reef the sails. The price of goods would change with the weather.

Weather forecasting changed from lore to science thanks to the efforts of Admiral Robert Fitzroy. He was a religious man, who clashed with Charles Darwin when he skippered HMS Beagle on the voyage that changed the world and led to Darwin’s “The Origin of Species.” Fitzroy was an equally clever chap, and a superb oceanographer. He realised the weather had patterns that might be predictable. He founded what is today the Meteorological Office to collate and compute data and observations from ships and shore stations – and distributed the first forecasts across the land. Queen Victoria would consult him as to when it was safe for her to sail across the Solent. Today the Weather Area West of Biscay is named Fitzroy in his honour.

Financial and market forecasting is still an art. The great traders and investors get that – and develop a feel for all the inputs. If I have any sense of it – it’s what’s crept into my bones through 35 years man and boy in markets. I’m that grizzled old fisherman who can look at a piece of seaweed to opine on where to fish today – he might not have a clue about it, but he’ll say it with confidence. It’s up to the younger fisherman to listen or ignore me.

Arr… pass me a glass of rum… 

I like to think I’ve developed a keen weather-eye for markets. I tell myself I can sniff trouble coming. I watch, and particularly listen, for the sounds of approaching opportunity. (For every financial storm is ultimately a market opportunity..) I’m not watching the leaves on trees, or clouds, but the behaviour of the flock. The way cattle behave oft resembles the actions of the crowd and its peculiar madness. And I know October is oft a bad month.

Discerning what is coming in financial markets is hit and miss. There is so much noise that it becomes difficult to discern the behaviours that drive markets. I used to watch the early morning financial TV shows – but the experts they bring in seldom get to say anything before the next advert proclaiming “We have your market interests at heart” blares through. Lies, lies and more lies. And why do they all have American hosts who nasally gabble at 10,000 words per minute? I can’t keep up.

No. To understand the financial weather, you need to listen. I can feel a storm approaching. 

First: There is a crack in the Tech Narrative that’s been driving markets. It spells a correction and a reassessment. It might be the current travails of the US not-making-any-trucks truck maker Nikola might be the trigger, that will precipitate a reversal. If it fooled GM into paying billions for a truck company yet to make a truck, then who else is pulling the proverbial wool over our eyes?

The parallels with the dot.com crash 20-years ago are obvious. It will sort out the wheat from the chaff… which is why I’ll be putting names like Apple and Amazon into the long-term hold portfolio, and waiting for the next bounce to sell my Teslas.

Second: I detect increasing desperation from Government here in Europe to stem the economic consequences of Coronavirus. Listen to the behaviours; its muddled, priorities are becoming confused, policies are increasingly contradictory and self-defeating. Sunak will put new employee protections in place, but knows the new anti-virus measures will trigger inevitable hospitality failures and unemployment, with serious multiplier effects across the economy. Morale is tumbling as fast as the economic prospects. Across Europe is feels the recession is deepening. It becomes a self-fulfilling force.

Third: Crashing oil and commodity prices add to the underlying woe.

Fourth: Geopolitics.. lest we forget, the west has picked an economic fight with China. Don’t forget about it. They are still there…waiting.. watching… biding their time.. waiting for that moment….

However, let’s not despair…

35 years in markets and weathering many’s a gale means I’ve learnt many things, Capt’n… Gales pass!

The trick is surviving and staying afloat: to avoid being caught on the lee shores of default, to be drawn onto the rocks by the siren-songs of the mer-unicorns, or to be left high and dry on the sandbars of bursting bubbles… Aye, the Gale will pass and the ships that survive get the highest market prices while picking up the floatsam and jetsom left by the storm.

Opportunity beckons… 

 END
Michael Every…

Flailing Central Banks & Failing Economies, Rabo Exposes The Sinners & The Sinned

Authored by Michael Every via Rabobank,

Chutzpah

Many readers will be familiar with the word chutzpah but some may not. Those who think it is pronounced with a “ch” like ‘chair’ rather than a “ch” like ‘loch’ are perhaps not as well-versed as they think. It is a word perhaps best defined by anecdote rather than a dictionary.

The apocryphal classic offered by Leo Rosten is “that quality enshrined in a man who, having killed his mother and father, throws himself on the mercy of the court because he is an orphan.” In more contemporary terms, it has been compared to “calling up tech support to report a bug on pirated software.”

There are countless others. Indeed, we are drowning in chutzpans.

Not just the obvious figure of Donald Trump: many other world leaders are out there boldly saying one thing and doing the complete opposite and knowing nobody in the media can bother joining the dots to notice. (Because markets.)

Rather, we see Elon Musk, who has achieved everything he has –including stratospheric wealth regardless of his Twitter habits– due to the opportunities offered him by the US, including tax-payer support and US government contracts, is now suing the US government –and even USTR Lighthizer directly– in a US Court to get tariffs on China over-turned. (Which takes us to an oft-repeated broader point: ‘Workers of the world, unite!’ became ‘Workers of the world, untie!’ decades ago: capitalists –even ones needing public bailouts– happily work across all international borders, and always will. Because markets.)

In the UK, Chancellor Sunak –working under the guidance of a PM who told everyone to go to work and to the pub, to eat junk food, and to lose weight,…and then to junk going to the pub and to work from home– is cancelling his budget and thinking how to support the millions of jobs everyone always knew were going to be shed as soon as furlough schemes end next month. He is apparently going to adopt the German model of supporting firms who allow workers back part time. Bloomberg also reports the UK may carry out studies that would deliberately expose healthy people to the virus in a bid to speed up development of a vaccine. Many would say that they already were. Perhaps it’s not chutzpah that springs to mind there though: more schlemiel.

Canada’s Justin Trudeau, who is the living, breathing definition of chutzpah –except that he has not a modicum of the required twinkle in his eye that says “I can’t quite believe I am getting away with this, can you?”– is also pushing forward a massively expansionary Covid economic scheme.

In Europe, where cultural affinity with chutzpah varies from the ‘we do it and call it something else and had it before you, obviously’ of France, to the ‘but the self-serving rules we wrote say this’ of others, government spending is also going to soar further as lockdowns return tranche by tranche. The ECB will today meanwhile be carrying out another round of TLTRO’s, where it lends to banks at rates as low as -1% to try to encourage them to lend to households about to be locked down again and firms about to see the economy close again. EUR1.3 trillion was the take-up last time three months ago, but it is likely to be less this time round. This is what central banking now looks like today.

The US is probably also on the verge of another huge fiscal stimulus package; and not making many mainstream headlines yet, the Fed’s Mester was yesterday muttering about the potential for Fed ‘digital dollars’ and depositing them directly into household accounts in the face of a downturn – so crypto helicopter money. That is what central banking also now looks like.

It’s not that these steps aren’t perhaps unavoidable, or even possibly beneficial, if done right – which they never are, of course. It’s that our central banks still have the chutzpah to pretend that this bloated, creaky, groaning, blatantly self-serving edifice is called ‘capitalism’, rather than say ‘crony capitalism’ or ‘central planning without a plan’ (but, boy, do some get rich while all this lack of planning is happening!). And that we have to comment on it as if it is capitalism.

On which note –and, not wishing to be a chutzpan myself, drawing from the depths of the internet rather than any inner-tsaddik— the word chutzpah is of Hebrew, not Yiddish, origin and actually has deep religious roots. In fact, it is contended that there is an extreme version of it in the Old Testament. Specifically, Moses found it unacceptable that God should visit the sins of the father onto the children of the third and fourth generation (Numbers 14:18) and actually dares (as Schulweis puts it) to argue with God, in the name of God, and to engage God with fierce moral logic:

“Sovereign of the Universe, consider the righteousness of Abraham and the idol worship of his father Terach. Does it make moral sense to punish the child for the transgressions of the father? Sovereign of the Universe, consider the righteous deeds of King Hezekiah, who sprang from the loins of his evil father King Achaz. Does Hezekiah deserve Achaz’s punishment? Consider the nobility of King Josiah, whose father Amnon was wicked. Should Josiah inherit the punishment of Amnon?”

Incredibly, God’s divine response to Moses is to accede to and that the sins of the father shall not be visited onto their sons.

If we can talk truth to power to THAT extent and get positive results, why can’t someone show some the chutzpah to hold up a mirror to our flailing central banks and failing political-economy, and ask where the sins are and who they are being visited unto? Rather than, say, that X went up 0.01% and Y went down 0.02%?

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1642 DOWN .0015 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MIXED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.46 UP 0.155 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2485   UP   0.0019  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3394 UP .0006 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 15 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1642 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 56.53 POINTS OR 1.72% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 431.44 POINTS OR 1.82%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,90%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 431.44 POINTS OR 1.82%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 56.53 POINTS OR 1.72%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN. 90% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 258.67  POINTS OR 1.11%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1658.90

silver:$22.32-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.673% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.408 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 94.47 UP 8 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.27% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.01%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.24%//UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.88 UP 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 64 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –50% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.38% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1655  DOWN     .0002 or 2 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.45 UP .141 OR YEN DOWN 14  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2733 UP .0019 POUND UP 19  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 2 basis points to 1.3386

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY: AT 6.8287    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.386  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  7.63 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +0.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 0.668 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.407 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.44 UP 5  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 76.48  1.30%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 36.40 POINTS OR .29%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 39,60 POINTS 0.83%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 15.10 POINTS or 0.23%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 23.06 POINTS OR 0.12%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 39.79 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 41.51 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    77.16  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.12 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 12 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.50 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  40.22//

 

 

BRENT :  41.78

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.666… down one basis point

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.402.down 2 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1669 ( UP 12   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.41 UP .111  (YEN DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.33 DOWN 6 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2744 UP 31  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 7.62

 

 

the Russian rouble 77.10   DOWN 0.05 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3352 UP 35 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.50%

 

The Dow closed UP 52.31 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 39.28 POINTS OR 0.37%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  28.61 CLOSED DOWN .03

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.225%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Pump’n’Dump As Stimulus Hopes (& The Dollar) Slump

The Dollar tumbled intraday, ending the 4-day win streak and biggest surge since March…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks hit session highs on speculation that talks about a new round of economic stimulus will resume amid growing concern over a resurgence in coronavirus cases around the world. Then reversed on reports that “no talks” were scheduled between Mnuchin and Pelosi. A record daily surge in COVID cases in France didn’t help…

Or visualized a different way…

Small Caps bounced off 200DMA (but then retraced back below it), Dow bounced off 100DMA at the open…

 

The S&P 500 broke down into the red for 2020 today (below 3230.78) but the machines made sure it closed above it…

 

Election uncertainty pushed higher once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite Oil’s modest gains, XOM slipped lower, pushing its dividend yield above 10% once again!…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg notes, the world’s second-biggest oil explorer by market value has pledged to defend the payout, which has increased for 37 consecutive years, but stubbornly low crude prices have meant a reliance on borrowed money to fund it.

SPACs were spanked (after SEC concerns)…

Source: Bloomberg

Or visualized a different way…

Momo’s short-term run against value appears to have its upper limit once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields remained in an insanely narrow range once again (10Y yields traded inside a 2bps range today). On the week, 30Y is down around 5bps, 2Y unch…

Source: Bloomberg

Driving Bond vol (MOVE) back down to record lows (the biggest divergence from VIX in over 30 years)…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields pushed higher again…

Source: Bloomberg

Turkish Lira screamed higher on the back a surprise rate hike (first since 2018)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin managed some decent gains as the dollar sank today…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver rebounded during the US day session, getting back above $23…

WTI pushed back above $40 as the dollar weakened…

Gold/Silver reversed lower today (after a notable spike in the last few days)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, in case you were wondering if it’s over yet? @BearTrapsReport notes that one rule of thumb we learned years ago – when you see a 3% drawdown, they only rarely happen alone, they often come as a cluster. The Nasdaq fell -3.1% on Wednesday, underperforming the other major US indices.

Looking at all of the -3% Nasdaq drawdowns over the past decade, a trend is clear… Large drawdowns come in clusters, they are rarely isolated events. With every big drawdown we see, there is an increased probability we see another one.

Source: Bloomberg

Trade accordingly.

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

S&P Enters Correction, Down 10% From Highs, Goes Red YTD

But, but, but… fiscal stimulus… Powell Put… v-shaped recovery… vaccine…

Nasdaq is leading the tumble but the S&P 500 has just hit a 10% drop from its highs – entering correction…

 

And going red year-to-date…

 

Time for a call?

 

\

 

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Unemployment benefits continue tor sie:  870,000 first time claims as well as increasesin continuing claims.

The virus has done its job in killing the USA economy

(zerohedge)

870,000 Americans Filed For First-Time Unemployment Benefits Last Week

870,000 Americans filed for first-time unemployment claims last week, slightly worse than the prior week’s and expectations.

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, last week’s jobless claims are four times the pre-COVID-Lockdown average!

New York was the worst state along with Georgia as California begins to ‘normalize’ (see below). Illinois and Michigan saw the best improvements last week…

Continuing Jobless Claims also disappointed – printing 12.58mm (worse than the 12.275mm expectations)

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that this past week was also payroll-survey week.

Of course, as we detailed previously, the numbers are heavily skewed by the fraud and backlogs in California. As The Epoch Times’ Sarah Le reportsCalifornia officials said it may take until Jan. 27, 2021, for the state’s Employment Development Department (EDD) to work its way through a massive backlog of unemployment cases accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The EDD implemented a “two week reset” starting Sept. 19 to address the issue, among others, and said the agency would stop accepting new unemployment claims during that time.

The reset takes place after months of delays in processing applications and allegations of rampant fraud. The move provoked outrage among some state politicians.

The state has about 600,000 unemployment applications more than 21 days old that have not yet been processed, according to the EDD. Another 1 million Californians have received payments from the state, but have since modified their claims and are awaiting a review to continue receiving benefits.

“We will be clearing backlog every single day between now and January,” said Sharon Hilliard, director of the EDD, at a Sept. 21 press conference.

So take the still-near-one-million levels with a modest spec of salt… for now.

end

 

US New Home Sales Surge In August To Highest Since 2006

Despite a huge upside surprise in existing home sales (to highest SAAR since 2006), analysts expected a small drop MoM in new home sales in August (which makes some sense after the colossal rebound in the last 3 months to well above the pre-COVID levels and the largest YoY jump since 1992!).

But, in keeping with the recent trend, new home sales beat expectations with a 4.8% MoM rise (-1.2% MoM exp) but we do  note that YoY growth in sales slowed very modestly from 28 year highs…

Source: Bloomberg

…to 1.011mm SAAR (well above the 890k SAAR expected)…This is the first time new home sales SAAR is above 1mm since Sept 2006…

Source: Bloomberg

Mixed picture across regions with the Midwest sales down 21.7% MoM (and West -1.7% MoM), while sales in the South surged 13.4% MoM and the Northeast saw sales rises 5.0% MoM.

Notably, while existing home prices surged to a new record high, median new home price fell 4.3% y/y to $312,800; average selling price at $369,000.

Also worth pointing out is that unlike the surge in high-end existing home sales, 12% of new homes sold in August cost more than $500,000, down from 14% prior month.

end

 

i) Important USA Economic Stories

 

Stock Rally Reverses On Report There Are “No Talks” Scheduled Between Mnuchin, Pelosi

With traders (and the Fed) desperate for some fiscal stimulus – now that Powell appears to have tapped out – earlier today stocks hit session highs on speculation that talks about a new round of economic stimulus will resume. As Bloomberg reported, the S&P 500 extended gains after House Speaker Pelosi said she spoke with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin yesterday and expressed hope that there would be another round of negotiations.

This followed Congressional tesimotny from Mnuchin, who earlier on Thursday said that a targeted pandemic relief package is “still needed.”

However, today’s rally peaked the moment Politico’s Jake Sherman reported that “no covid relief talks are scheduled at this time” between Mnuchin and Pelosi…

… dousing excitement that another fiscal bill may be on deck.

In other words, no change, although with the dollar trading near session lows after it early rampage, it appears that downward momentum has for now been reversed.

Alas, that does not answer the $64 trillion question: who will blink first, Powell or Pelosi, and linked to that: what is the strike price of the Pelosi Put? In other words, does the S&P have to drop much more before the top House Democrat agrees to the republican bid of a $1.5 trillion stimulus, or will she hold out for the $2.2 trillion Democrat ask, no matter where the stock market is. That said, one would assume that Democrats would be delighted to see a stock market crash ahead of the election: after all, Trump has repeatedly confirmed that he views stocks as the only “objective” barometer of his administration, which is Democrats would be delighted if said barometer were to be much, much lower.

Wisconsin Authorities Investigate Absentee Ballots Found In Ditch, As FBI Probes Discarded Pro-Trump Ballots In PA

Police in the swing-state of Wisconsin are investigating how three trays of mail which included absentee ballots ended up in a ditch, after the mail was found at 8 a.m. Tuesday morning near a highway before it was immediately turned over to the US Postal Service, according to Fox 11.

“The United States Postal Inspection Service immediately began investigating and we reserve further comment on this matter until that is complete,” said USPS spokesman Bob Sheehan in a statement.

The incident comes a mere five weeks before the presidential election, which has been steeped in partisan bickering over the system of mail-in and absentee ballots and wavering trust in the alternate system.

Due to the coronavirus pandemic, which marked a grim milestone this week of over 200,000 deaths in the U.S., voters are expected to cast ballots by mail in record numbers.

We expect more than 3 million Wisconsin residents to vote in the November election, which means even more first-time absentee by mail voters,” Meagan Wolfe, the elections commission’s administrator, said in a statement earlier this month. –Fox News

Prior to the pandemic, just 6% of Wisconsin voters cast absentee ballots by mail – however during the state’s April primaries, that number jumped to 60%, when 1.1 million out of 1.55 million votes were conducted through the postal service. During the August partisan primary, Wolfe said that 82% of the 867,000 votes cast were via absentee ballot.

During said primaries, thousands of voters across the state complained that they never received the absentee ballots they requested. In one case, a Milwaukee postal worker said that three bins of absentee ballots had never been delivered.

Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, the FBI and the office of the United States Attorney found nine discarded mail-in ballots from members of the military, all cast for President Trump.

According to the DOJ:

Since Monday, FBI personnel working together with the Pennsylvania State Police have conducted numerous interviews and recovered and reviewed certain physical evidence.  Election officials in Luzerne County have been cooperative. At this point we can confirm that a small number of military ballots were discarded.   Investigators have recovered nine ballots at this time.  Some of those ballots can be attributed to specific voters and some cannot.  All nine ballots were cast for presidential candidate Donald Trump.

On Thursday, President Trump told Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade on his radio show that mail-in ballots are a “horror show” and that missing ballots are “emblematic of thousands of ballots” which could get lost this year.

end

Ratings plummet!

(zerohedge)

Week 2 Sunday Night Football Ratings Plunge 17% From Week 1’s Already “Steep Decline”

We had already documented that Week 1 NFL ratings saw a “steep decline” from last year’s comparable ratings. In an article we published about a week ago, we questioned whether or not that could have something to do with the NFL focusing more on politics than – well, actually playing football.

Week 2 saw no respite for the NFL. Last Sunday’s Seahawks versus New England Patriots game – one of the premier matchups in all of the NFL – saw only 12.22 million viewers on NBC, according to the Daily Caller.

The numbers mark a 17% decline from Week 1, which saw roughly 7 million viewer plunge from Week 1 of the 2019 season.

As we noted, Week 1’s Sunday night’s game also featured popular teams: “America’s Team” – the Dallas Cowboys, and the newly moved Los Angeles Rams.

But the game posted a 4.7 among the key Adult 18-49 demographic with 14.81 million viewers. For comparison, last year’s Patriots vs. Steelers Sunday night opener had 22.2 million viewers. This total was generally in-line with the opener the year before, indicating that even with West Coast viewers factored in, this season’s ratings have been decimated.

The Daily Caller took their best shot at explaining what the issue could be: “It no longer feels like the NFL is about winning and losing games. It feels like it’s about lecturing fans around the clock. Average Americans don’t want to be lectured by millionaire athletes. They just don’t!”

And as we asked about 10 days ago: what could the NFL be doing wrong?

end

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//USA/GLOBE

Trump Threatens Veto Of New COVID-19 Vaccine Rules; France Imposes New ‘Social Distancing’ Restrictions: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Trump vetos vaccine restrictions
  • China says mass vaccinations to take up to 2 years
  • France introduces more curbs
  • Israel lockdown intensifies
  • FDA delivers emergency authorization
  • Moscow reports 1,050 new cases
  • Indonesia suffers 2nd straight record

* * *

While the US marches toward the 7 million mark, France announced new restrictions on Wednesday calling for bars and restaurants to be shuttered in the ‘hot spot’ of Marseille, and Germany added 11 regions to its list of COVID hotspots, as the second wave of COVID-19 infection spreads across Europe.

China has been pressing ahead with its vaccination projects, with multiple efforts already well into ‘Phase 3’ testing. But if China’s COVID-19 infection rates are really so low as to be virtuallly nonexistent, as Chinese official data, and state-controlled media reports, have suggested, then why is the Communist Party of China attaching such a high priority to the country’s domestic mass-vaccination efforts?

A top government scientist told the local press that it’ll take China up to two years to finish vaccinations on a mass scale, said infectious disease expert Zhong Nanshan, who was speaking at an “industry event”, according to China’s Changjiang Daily.

One could argue that another outbreak is just around the corner, but after months of Beijing’s heavy handed “wartime footing” approach, people in Wuhan are partying like its 2019, and even a handful of domestic cases can trigger ‘localized’ lockdowns that can seal off cities from their surrounding province.

Circling back to the US, President Trump threatened to veto any attempt to tighten rules related to emergency clearance of a vaccine, a statement that will inevitably trigger another round of accusations about Trump meddling with government scientists and applying undue political pressure that could compromise the safety, and credibility, of the eventually-approved vaccine.

Still, Dr. Fauci and Dr. Redfield told Congress during yesterday’s hearing that they “wouldn’t hesitate” to get a vaccine if one was offered.

One day after JNJ became the fourth US vaccine project to enter ‘Phase 3’ testing, AstraZeneca said it is still waiting for a decision from the FDA on whether it can resume tests in the country after halting global trials due to concerns about a participant who became ill in the UK.

Though case numbers across Sweden remain well below their springtime peak, a recent surge in cases in and around Stockholm has prompted the country’s top health officials to consider imposing new localized restrictions to prevent a broader resurgence. Swedish PM Lofven said the country “would not hesitate” to take further action to limit the spread.

After separately announcing new measures earlier in the week, Spain, France, the UK and Germany are leading European nations in combating a second wave that continues to rise. With Europeans opposed to a lockdown return, all of these countries are relying on ‘localized’ restrictions – particularly on bars and restaurants, and large gatherings and weddings – as their front-line of defense, with leaders (notably Johnson) warning that the restrictions could remain in place for up to six months.

The biggest numbers out of the US yesterday came from Texas, which followed California to become the 4th state to see its death toll top 15,000.

Here’s a rundown of important numbers from yesterday, accurate as of 0630ET:

31,914,770: confirmed cases worldwide

977,109: confirmed deaths worldwide

37,330: New US cases recorded yesterday

6,935,415: Total cases confirmed in the US

1,098: deaths in the US recorded yesterday

201,920: total U.S. deaths

97,459,742: tests conducted in the U.S.

Cases have fallen from a five-week high reached earlier in the week…

…while the US saw the highest number of deaths in a week yesterday.

Here’s other important news from overnight:

US FDA delivered emergency authorization for the first serology/antibody point-of-care COVID test (Newswires).

China’s Sinovac Biotech hopes to supply its experimental vaccine across Latin America as quickly as possible by outsourcing some manufacturing procedures to a partner in Brazil. Sinovac plans to provide semi-finished products to its partner Instituto Butantan, which will complete the rest of the process and supply finished items to other South American countries, Chairman Yin Weidong said at a news conference, part of China’s effort to ‘atone’ for unleashing SARS-CoV-2 on the world (Source: Nikkei).

Indonesia reports a daily record high for the second consecutive day with 4,634 new infections, and 128 deaths. The country has now a total of 262,022 coronavirus cases, with the death toll crossing the 10,000 mark for the first time to 10,105 (Source: Nikkei).

The Philippines reports 2,180 new infections and 36 additional deaths. Total confirmed cases rose to 296,755, still the highest in Southeast Asia, while deaths reached 5,127, nearly half of which were recorded in the past 30 days (Source: Nikkei).

SoftBank Group starts offering PCR coronavirus testing with saliva that will cost 2,000 yen ($19) per person, excluding delivery fees, for corporate customers. In Japan, PCR testing is typically priced from 20,000 to 40,000 yen. The Japanese tech investor aims to expand the testing market by making tests available to people without symptoms at a reasonable price through its unit. It also plans to offer the service to individuals this winter (Source: Nikkei).

China reports seven new coronavirus cases for Thursday, down from 10 reported a day earlier. All new cases were imported infections involving travelers from overseas. The number of new asymptomatic cases rose to 20 from 18 a day earlier (Source: Nikkei).

Moscow registered 1,050 new cases in the last day, the first time that the Russian capital diagnosed over a thousand infections since June. New daily cases in Moscow have grown by two-thirds since Sept. 1, when schools opened nationwide. The number of infections is rising throughout Russia, with 6,595 new cases in the last day. There have been 1,128,836 reported infections, the fourth highest in the world, after the U.S., India and Brazil (Source: Bloomberg).

The Israeli government tightened lockdown restrictions for the next two weeks to try and fight a coronavirus outbreak that’s spun out of control. Just last week, the government imposed its second lockdown since the pandemic began. With daily new infections surging dramatically, the government voted early Thursday to clamp down further during a season of major Jewish holidays by almost totally idling the private sector, allowing only essential employees to work (Source: Bloomberg).

Russia is preparing to supply 17 more countries with its Avifavir COVID-19 treatment (Newswires).

END

LOUISVILLE/KENTUCKY

Rioting in Louisville last night with 2 police officers shot. This came after the correct verdict not to indict 3 officers in the killing of Breonna Taylor

(zerohedge)

Media Declares “Violence Is Inevitable” As 2 Cops Shot In Louisville; Reporters Arrested In Aggressive Police Crackdown

As we reported last night, protesters hit the streets in Louisville, NYC, LA, Denver, Oakland, Washington DC and other cities across the US after a Kentucky grand jury decided that no officers would be charged in the killing of Breonna Taylor, a tragic accident that was the result of officers serving a “no-knock” warrant.

In Louisville, the city where Taylor was shot and killed, 2 police were shot as gunfire broke out downtown after hundreds “peacefully” marched earlier in the evening. But as has become distressingly familiar, the real hard-core agitators came out after dark. A suspect in the shooting of the two officers was taken into custody shortly after, but he wasn’t the only “protester” who was packing heat at the “non-violent demonstration.”

Amazingly, left-leaning media outlets had the gall to frame the shooting of two police as an “inevitable”, while framing the events of last night in distorted terms that served to support their narrative of a corrupt justice system absolving three murderers, instead of reporting the facts: that a jury of their peers – not some unassailable magistrate – decided on the indictments for the three officers.

The Daily Beast reported that none of the officers were charged for Breonna Taylor’s killing. While that’s technically true – officer Brett Hankison was charged with three counts of wanton endangerment for firing into a nearby occupied apartment, not for the shots that killed Taylor, which were fired by a colleague – the result is misleading, and intentionally so, we suspect.

But we digress. Circling back to the events of Wednesday night, the Louisville Metropolitan Police Department – better known as the LMPD – aggressively enforced curfew violations after the shooting. Several reporters – including two journalists for the Daily Caller – were arrested during the sweep, and despite protests from their editors, were charged with breaking curfew and attending an “unlawful” assembly. It’s believed that dozens of protesters and reporters were taken into custody during the sweep of Jefferson Square, which has served as the base for BLM protesters who have been out demonstrating every night for the past 118 days.

As far as violence goes, this video has gone viral after being shared by several mainstream media outlets.

The DC reporters arrested included Jorge Ventura and Shelby Talcott.

When editors reached out, the department refused to budge.

Circling back to the wounded officers, Interim LMPD chief Robert Schroeder confirmed the two officers had been shot and sustained life-threatened injuries, and that a suspect was in custody. One of the officers was shot in the abdomen, while the the other was shot in the thigh.

“I am very concerned about the safety of our officers,” Schroeder said. “Obviously we’ve had two officers shot tonight, and that is very serious. … I think the safety of our officers and the community we serve is of the utmost importance,” Schroeder said, according to the Courier-Journal.

As of 11pm local time on Thursday, police had arrested 46 people, which includes those arrested in the sweep of Jefferson Square, which reportedly happened around 8pm.

Thousands gathered across NYC and LA, and hundreds more in Portland, Chicago, Atlanta and other cities around the country as others marched “in solidarity”.

Expect the unrest to continue Thursday, as it has for nearly 120 days

END

Many follow Economist Stephen Roach:

he calls for a crash in the dollar!

(zerohedge/Stephen Roach)

Economist Stephen Roach issues new dollar crash warning, sees double-dip recession odds above 50%

Economist Stephen Roach warns next year will be brutal for the dollar.

Not only does he see growing odds of a double-dip recession, the Yale University senior fellow believes his “seemingly crazed idea” that the dollar would crash shouldn’t be so crazy anymore.

“We’ve got data that’s confirmed both the saving and current account dynamic in a much more dramatic fashion than even I was looking for,” Roach told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday.

Roach highlights two ominous second quarter figures.

“The current account deficit in the United States, which is the broadest measure of our international imbalance with the rest of the world, suffered a record deterioration in the second quarter,” he said. “The so-called net-national savings rate, which is the sum of savings of individuals, businesses and the government sector, also recorded a record decline in the second quarter going back into negative territory for the first time since the global financial crisis.”

Right now, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading around 94. When Roach predicted on “Trading Nation” last June the index would plunge 35%, it was trading around 96.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Republicans urge the FBI and DOJ to investigate Hunter Biden’s 3.5 million Moscow payday.

(zerohedge)

Top Republicans Urge FBI, DOJ To Investigate Hunter Biden’s $3.5 Million Moscow Payday

Top Republicans are calling for the FBI and Justice Department to investigate a series of wire transfers from Russian and Chinese businesspeople to Hunter Biden, after Senate Republicans released a Wednesday report detailing the suspicious transactions – including a $3.5 million wire from a Russian billionaire whose late husband was the mayor of Moscow.

On Thursday, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) sent a letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray inquiring whether the agency has investigated the wire transfers. The letter follows a Wednesday comment from Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), who told Fox News that he would be submitting a criminal referral to the Justice Department over the payments, according to the Daily Caller.

report that Senate Republicans released Wednesday detailed millions of dollars in transfers to and from accounts linked to Hunter Biden and various business associates, including his uncle James Biden.

The report, which cited confidential Treasury Department documents, said that the transactions had been “identified for potential financial criminal activity.” Republicans said that the payments raised “criminal financial, counterintelligence and extortion concerns.”

According to the report, Elena Baturina, a Russian billionaire whose late husband was mayor of Moscow, wired $3.5 million in February 2014 to a company co-founded by Biden. The report also said that Biden wired money to people linked to sex trafficking and prostitution in Eastern Europe. –Daily Caller

Meanwhile, PLA-linked Chinese businessman Ye Jianming – chairman of Chinese energy conglomerate CEFC China Energy – wired hundreds of thousands of dollars to accounts linked to Biden in 2017, according to the GOP report. According to the Caller, Jianming was a top official during the mid-2000s for the China Association for International Friendly Contacts – a PLA front group which engages in “intelligence collection” for Beijing.

The report…shows that the FBI has been aware of some misconduct for years,” wrote Jordan in the letter to Wray.

Of course, according to Joe Biden, there wasn’t “one single scintilla of evidence” that Hunter did anything wrong.

Read the rest of the report here.

 

end

John Durham Investigating FBI Handling Of Clinton Foundation Pay-To-Play Allegations

US Attorney John Durham is investigating how the FBI handled their investigation of bribery and pay-to-play allegations against the Clinton Foundation.

Notably, former FBI Director James Comey’s family supported Clinton in the 2016 US election, while the wife of his #2, Andrew McCabe, received roughly $700,000 from Clinton allies in her failed bid for Virginia state office – all while the FBI was handling the Clinton Foundation investigation.

In a Thursday report by the New York Times that mounts a robust, editorialized defense of Clintonworld (‘Durham’s probe is politically charged’ – ‘Durham is chasing down conspiracy theories,’ etc) – we learn that Durham has sought documents and interviews about how the FBI handled allegations of political corruption at the Clinton Foundation.

Recall that nothing ever came of revelations that the Hillary Clinton-led State Department authorized $151 billion in Pentagon-brokered deals to 16 countries that donated to the Clinton Foundation – a 145% increase in completed sales to those nations over the same time frame during the Bush administration, according to IBTimes

American defense contractors also donated to the Clinton Foundation while Hillary Clinton was secretary of state and in some cases made personal payments to Bill Clinton for speaking engagements. Such firms and their subsidiaries were listed as contractors in $163 billion worth of Pentagon-negotiated deals that were authorized by the Clinton State Department between 2009 and 2012. –IBTimes

Then there was that $1 million check Qatar reportedly gave Bill Clinton for his birthday in 2012, which the charity confirmed it accepted. Coincidentally, we’re sure, Qatar was one of the countries which gained State Department clearance to buy US weapons while Clinton was Secretary of State, “even as the department signaled them out of a range of alleged ills,” according to IBTimes.

Then there was $145 million donated to the Foundation from parties linked to the Uranium One deal prior to its approval through a rubber-stamp committee.

“The committee almost never met, and when it deliberated it was usually at a fairly low bureaucratic level,” Richard Perle said. Perle, who has worked for the Reagan, Clinton and both Bush administrations added, “I think it’s a bit of a joke.” –CBS

The Clinton Foundation, meanwhile, told the NY Times that it “has regularly been subjected to baseless, politically motivated allegations, and time after time these allegations have been proven false.”

Oddly, however, donations to the foundation plummeted 90% after Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election – which would be odd if it wasn’t a pay-for-play enterprise.

And according to Clinton Foundation whistleblowers, the organization “operated as an unregistered foreign agent.”

Via Sara Carter at SaraaCarter.com

The Clinton Foundation operated as a foreign agent ‘early in its life’ and ‘throughout it’s existence’ and did not operate as a 501c3 charitable foundation as required, and is not entitled to its status as a nonprofit, alleged two highly qualified forensic investigators, accompanied by three other investigators, said in explosive testimony Thursday to the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

 

Doyle and Moynihan have amassed 6,000 documents in their nearly two-year investigation through their private firm MDA Analytics LLC. The documents were turned over more than a year and a half ago to the IRS, according to John Solomon, who first published the report last week in The Hill.  

The investigation clearly demonstrates that the foundation was not a charitable organization per se, but in point of fact was a closely held family partnership,” said Doyle, who formerly worked on Wall Street and has been involved with finance for the last ten years conducting investigations.

“As such it was governed in a fashion in which it sought in large measure to advance the personal interests of its principals as detailed within the financial analysis of this submission and further confirmed within the supporting documentation and evidence section.”

Will Durham’s inquiry into the FBI’s handling of the Clinton Foundation result in anything? If recent history is any indicator, don’t hold your breath.

end

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Two factors that might have aided the buck: 1) several polls, including some MSM polls, show Trump taking the lead in most battle ground states or being within the margin of error, which have wiped out large Biden leads; and 2) the Senate report on Hunter Biden’s activities is devastating (details below).

Trump Now Leads Biden in Florida, Arizona, According to Washington Post-ABC Pol

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-now-leads-biden-in-florida-arizona-according-to-washington-post-abc-poll/ar-BB19lyBW

Cleveland Fed Prez Loretta Mester: Industry participants may need to rethink their payments technology investment strategy once we are through the pandemic…The spread of COVID-19 heightened the reliance of businesses and individuals on digital services and faster connectivity, as many employees began to work from home and consumers turned to online shopping

Global demand for U.S. currency notes increased at unprecedented rates in March as currency orders from domestic and international banks spiked dramatically… the amount of cash stored at home or elsewhere rose even more, nearly 90 percent, from an average of $250 to over $475…

    Legislation has proposed that each American have an account at the Fed in which digital dollars could be deposited, as liabilities of the Federal Reserve Banks, which could be used for emergency payments. Other proposals would create a new payments instrument, digital cash, which would be just like the physical currency issued by central banks today, but in a digital form and, potentially, without the anonymity of physical currency…[This would kill big banks!]

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/speeches/sp-20200923-payments-and-the-pandemic.aspx

The Weakness of Modern Monetary Theory

MMT’s central claims regarding the harmlessness of deficits, debt, and mass currency production are not only flatly false, they are deeply dangerous. Theoretical considerations and historical examples not only strongly undermine the central tenets of MMT, they also serve as a critical reminder to policymakers, particularly in a moment when deficit spending may truly be necessary,  of what happens when governments fail, over long periods, to take responsible measures to balance their checkbooks throughout the business cycle…

   Growth declines non-linearly with debt-to-GDP, hitting a flashpoint somewhere around the 100% mark…the U.S. Treasury has a unique ability to borrow at lower rates… this special quality does not eliminate the fact that, sooner or later, one does run out of other people’s money… the correlation between currency printing and hyperinflation is undeniable, the causal relationship intuitive. Yet MMT proponents continue to contest it…

     MMT, which, upon closer inspection, appears to have more in common with a political or moral ideological movement than it does with a theory of economics…MMT initially gained traction in the popular press largely through the efforts of several left-leaning journalists, including several at Bloomberg Media… https://nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/the-weakness-of-modern-monetary-theory

Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine enters Phase 3 trials, becomes fourth in U.S. to reach mark   https://t.co/r60T6DlOwC

Google accused of censoring conservative videos, pushing right-leaning news low in search results

https://justthenews.com/nation/technology/google-accused-censoring-conservative-videos-pushing-right-leaning-news-low

DOJ unveils Trump administration’s legislation to reform tech’s legal liability shield

The draft legislation focuses on two areas of reform. First, it aims to narrow the criteria online platforms must meet to earn the liability protections granted by Section 230. Second, it would carve out the statute’s immunity for certain cases, like offenses involving child sexual abuse…  https://t.co/rYPC6R1drA

Tucker Carlson on America’s Ruling Class: “America’s grotesquely distorted economy is making a tiny group of people richer than anyone has ever been in human history. Those people suddenly run everything, including our elections. They are subverting our political system.”

https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1308574064101867521

Hunter Biden, Burisma, and Corruption:  The Impact on U.S. Government Policy and Related Concerns – U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs

Hunter Biden received a $3.5 million wire transfer from Elena Baturina, the wife of the former mayor of Moscowhttps://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/HSGAC_Finance_Report_FINAL.pdf

 

@RepJimBanks: So it turns out that all along it was the Bidens colluding with Russia!

 

Senate report slams Bidens for conflicts of interest, flags possible criminal activity

GOP-led investigation cites ‘glaring’ evidence of Burisma bribe, suspicious foreign money transfers and sex trafficking. – “The Treasury records acquired by the Chairmen show potential criminal activity relating to transactions among and between Hunter Biden, his family, and his associates with Ukrainian, Russian, Kazakh and Chinese nationals,”… There are simply too many potential conflict of interest, counterintelligence and extortion threats to ignore,” he said…

    Archer received $142,300 from Kenges Rakishev of Kazakhstan, purportedly for a car, the same day Vice President Joe Biden appeared with Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and addressed Ukrainian legislators in Kyiv regarding Russia’s actions in Crimea.

    Hunter Biden received a $3.5 million wire transfer from Elena Baturina, the wife of the former mayor of Moscow and Russia’s only female oligarch.

    Hunter Biden opened a bank account with Chinese national Gongwen Dong to fund a $100,000 global spending spree for the Biden family.

    Hunter Biden had business associations with Ye Jianming, Gongwen, and other Chinese nationals linked to the communist government and the People’s Liberation Army. “Those associations resulted in millions of dollars in cash flow,” the report said…

Hunter Biden has sent funds to nonresident alien women in the United States who are citizens of Russia and Ukraine and who have subsequently wired funds they have received from Hunter Biden to individuals located in Russia and Ukraine. The records also note that some of these transactions are linked to what ‘appears to be an Eastern European prostitution or human trafficking ring,“…

    The report said the Senate probe will continue in part because investigators have been thwarted by a lack of cooperation and have not yet been able to determine whether the FBI, U.S. intelligence or other agencies fully investigated the concerns about the Bidens… the key evidence supporting the Republicans’ conclusions came from Obama-Biden era files and witnesses, including Kent, the bowtied diplomat who was a star witness for Democrats at impeachment…

https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/senate-report-slams-bidens-conflicts-interest-flags

 

Senate Report Accuses Hunter Biden of Paying for Hookers Who May Have Been Trafficked

https://thefederalist.com/2020/09/23/senate-report-accuses-hunter-biden-of-paying-for-hookers-who-may-have-been-trafficked/?s=02

Hunter Biden Received Millions from Wife of Ex-Moscow Mayor, Paid Suspects Allegedly Tied to Trafficking, Had Contacts with Individuals Linked to Chinese Military, Senate Report Alleges

https://www.dailywire.com/news/breaking-hunter-biden-received-millions-from-wife-of-ex-moscow-mayor-paid-suspects-allegedly-tied-to-trafficking-had-contacts-with-chinese-military-senate-report-alleges

 

@willchamberlain: Hunter Biden’s law firm Owasco received nearly $6 million from Chinese oligarch Ye Jianming. $1 million of that was said to be for the representation of Patrick Ho at trial by Boies Schiller Flexner and Owasco. But those firms were not involved at all.  Bank fraud?

WSJ’s @KimStrassel: The Johnson-Grassley report raises the many and disturbing conflicts of interests surrounding Hunter’s biz dealings while Joe was veep. But it also makes clear that the Democratic nominee is not being straight with the public.  Joe Biden last year: “I have never spoken to my son about his overseas business dealings.” That’s pretty definitive, right? Yet according to testimony from former Obama official Amos Hochstein, he briefed Joe on his concerns about Hunter/Burisma in October 2015.  “Shortly after his conversation with Vice President Biden, Hunter Biden contacted Hochstein and asked to meet. According to Hochstein, Hunter became aware of Hochstein’s West Wing conversation with the Vice President, who had mentioned it to Hunter.” (Page 17 of report)… This is all relevant given Biden’s claim he is the more ethical choice in this election. Voters might legitimately ask if the wink-nod approach to Hunter’s wheeling-dealing will be business as usual in a Biden administration.

 

@seanmdav: Media had a meltdown when Donald Trump, Jr. met with a Fusion GPS client for a hot second, but they’re now going to pretend it’s no big deal that Biden’s… son used daddy’s name to grease deals with foreign crooks who just wanted to buy off the VP.

 

@julie_kelly2: George Kent, a star witness for impeachment, knew all of this. And instead of being a standup guy before the American people, he acted like a Biden mob boss stooge. Sure would’ve been nice if George Kent had told impeachment committee that Zlochevsky gave Ukrainian prosecutor $7 million bribe in late 2014 at same time Hunter was on Burisma “board” and US embassy reported it to Jim Comey’s FBI and nothing happened.

    And to think Mitt Romney and all those NeverTrumpers who supported impeachment thought this was about a phone call to the Ukrainian president and not a massive coverup of the global corruption racket that is Joe Biden and his family.

 

Senate Probe Finds John Kerry Falsely Claimed He Had No Knowledge of Hunter Biden’s Role in Burisma – Kerry’s former chief of staff David Wade testified to the Senate Homeland Security Committee that he informed Kerry personally of Biden’s role at Burisma…

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/senate-probe-finds-john-kerry-falsely-claimed-he-had-no-knowledge-of-hunter-bidens-role-in-burisma/

 

Remember, Joe Biden is on video bragging about extorting Ukrainian officials!

 

Does the Hunter Biden Report give Joe Biden an excuse to back out of the Presidential Debates?

 

In October 2019, Joe had a meltdown when questioned about Hunter and refused to answer questions on Hunter.  https://twitter.com/Ja1Ke3/status/1308805009384112135

 

Trump mocks Biden for covering up alleged plastic surgery with mask

“I mean, honestly, what the hell did he spend all that money on the plastic surgery [for] if he is going to cover it up?” Trump jeered at a campaign rally in Pittsburgh…

https://nypost.com/2020/09/22/trump-rips-biden-at-rally-for-covering-up-plastic-surgery-with-mask/

 

@jacobkschneider: Joe Biden has to look through his notes in order to figure out what is in his own tax plan  https://twitter.com/jacobkschneider/status/1308820302516944899

 

Biden slams Park Avenue despite raking in donations from ritzy boulevard https://t.co/YrMhNGp9gw

 

Op-ed in Politico: McConnell Is Finishing What Schumer Started – Fifteen years ago, Chuck Schumer picked a fight over judicial nominees. This week, Mitch McConnell is ending it for good.

    McConnell is ending a fight that a young senator named Chuck Schumer started nearly 15 years ago by rallying the first-ever partisan filibuster of a nominee to the D.C. Circuit Court: Miguel Estrada.  Previously, the Senate’s “advise and consent” role was vigorously deployed with fierce partisan tensions but ultimately settled with simple up-or-down majority votes.

    Fresh off a drubbing in the 2002 midterm elections, Schumer and a Democratic minority sought to invigorate their liberal base by changing all of that. Leaked internal memos indicated that the Democratic opposition was predicated on the fact that if confirmed, this brilliant young Hispanic conservative would be catapulted onto the short list for a Supreme Court nomination. On that assumption, they were likely correct. At the time, Schumer understood that he could not base opposition to a judicial nominee on politics alone, so the stated reason for his opposition relied on the thinnest of gruel. Despite earning a “well-qualified” rating from the American Bar Association—the legal gold standard and seal of approval—Senate Democrats argued he wasn’t qualified… despite 55 senators voting to end the blockade, Democrats sustained the filibuster—as they would with Estrada on an additional six separate occasions. He was forced to withdraw his nomination, and a new age of partisan filibuster was born

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/mitch-mcconnell-charles-schumer-nuclear-option-judicial-filibuster-214991

 

@Julio_Rosas11: While the BLM crowd was marching in Louisville, a U Haul truck pulled up with shields and supplies for the group to use. [Who is funding them?]

https://twitter.com/Julio_Rosas11/status/1308829879052439558

 

Trump announces executive order protecting babies who survive abortion  https://trib.al/D6LPPFC

 

Support for School Choice Surges as Schools Start

Since the last RealClear poll in April, for parents with kids in public schools, there’s been a ten point jump in support for the concept of school choice, from 67% to 77%…

https://www.federationforchildren.org/support-for-school-choice-surges-as-schools-start/

 

Trump cites school choice, China as second-term priorities

I‘d love to see school choice” when Hilton broached the subject of what he’d like to do in his second term. “Education is going to be a big factor for me,” Trump told Hilton…

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/23/trump-convention-school-choice-china-400562

 

Florida AG Moody calls for investigation into Bloomberg’s pledge to help felons pay debts… and help felons vote in Florida… Moody’s letter references Florida’s statute against paying for votes…

https://cbs12.com/news/local/florida-ag-moody-orders-investigation-into-bloombergs-pledge-to-help-felons-pay-debts

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you FRIDAY night.

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