SEPT 23//RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER AS WE START OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK: GOLD DOWN $28.00 TO $1865.00//SILVER DOWN $1.41 TO $23.00// HUGE INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE AT THE COMEX UP TO 14.9 TONNES/54.8 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY//HUGE OI FOR OCTOBER GOLD//JPMORGAN TO PLEAD GUILTY (CRIMINALLY) AND PAY A 1 BILLION DOLLAR FINE TO CFTC/JUSTICE;;AND NOW CLASS ACTION SUITS WILL COMMENCE//FED PLANNING ON GIVING EACH USA CITIZENS DIGITAL MONEY??: IS THIS THEIR END GAME?//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

GOLD:$1865.00  DOWN $28.00   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$23.00 DOWN  $1.41   London spot price ( cash market)

Today there is no doubt that the official sector came into the fray assisted by the soon to be criminal JPMorgan et al.  Generally one week prior to first day notice the spreaders begin their criminal liquidation with the CFTC continually turning a blind eye to this activity.  However on the positive side of things, October comex refuses to buckle in numbers and no doubt that a major entity is standing for delivery.  You can also bet the farm that options in the money on the October contract month will also be exercised and they will also turn that option into real metal.

comex option expiry FRIDAY: Sept 25

LBMA/OTC options expiry:  Sept 30

It is going to be an interesting week…

 

your data…

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1861.40  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $22,80//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

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CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

OCT GOLD:  $1859.80.60  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /: $5.20 BACKWARD//  VERY CHEAP@!! THIS IS A MAGNET TO ATTRACT THOSE WILLING TO PURCHASE AND THEN TAKE POSSESSION OF METAL.

 

 

 

DEC. GOLD  $1867.40   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $2.40/ CONTANGO   ( $3.60 BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $23.00…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 0 CENTS CONTANGO//  NORMAL CONTANGO)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $23.09  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       : 9  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO ( 3 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

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COMEX DATA

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today:  0/298

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,898.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/22/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 09/24/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
135 H RAND 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 7
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 297
661 H JP MORGAN 286
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
709 H BARCLAYS 1
845 C GOLDMAN SACHS C 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 298 298
MONTH TO DATE: 4,707

issued:  0

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 298 NOTICE(S) FOR 29,800 OZ  (0.9269 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  4707 NOTICES FOR 470700 OZ  (14.6406 tonnes) 

 

 

SILVER

 

 

193 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 965,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 10,901 for 54.505 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $10488  DOWN 42

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $10,299. DOWN 232

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

A MASSIVE 11.68 TONNE WITHDRAWAL

 

GLD: 1,267.14 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

 

WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41  TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

A MONSTROUS:2.048 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL TO THE SLV//

RESTING SLV INVENTORY TONIGHT:

 

SLV: 553.443  MILLION OZ./

 

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL 618 CONTRACTS FROM 158,526 DOWN TO 157,908, AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR TINY 1 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO  ZERO  SILVER SHORT COVERING..  COUPLED AGAINST A GOOD EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL :   ZERO  LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A VERY STRONG  INCREASE IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT.  WE HAD A SMALL NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 356 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A TINY  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  135, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  SEP 0;  DEC:  760, MARCH  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  760 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

 

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

54.840 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL $0.01) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THE RAIDS THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE ORCHESTRATED BY THE BIS WITH MEGA ASSISTANCE FROM OUR CRIMINAL BANKERS AND OUR ALGOS. THEIR CHIEF AIM WAS TO REMOVE SPECULATORS FROM THEIR LONG POSITIONS…..   WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A VERY STRONG  GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING  FOR SEPTEMBER, 3) TINY COMEX LOSS AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.  YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

12,144 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 12,144 CONTRACTS) OR 60.720 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 759 CONTRACTS OR 3.795 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT: 60.72 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 8.67% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,440.42 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                60.72 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 618, WITH OUR  $0.01 FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAY.THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 760 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

 

 

TODAY WE GAINED A TINY SIZED 142 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  $0.01 FALL IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 760 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A TINY SIZED DECREASE OF 618 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.01 FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $24.41 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.791 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 113% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW AUGUST  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 193 NOTICE(S) FOR 965,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 86.470 million oz//AUGUST 6.475 MILLION OZ//SEPT. 54.840 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1307 CONTRACTS TO 575,877 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED  WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE  OF $4.50 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY//WE HAD ZERO BANKER SHORT COVERING AS, DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS, WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES (3186 CONTRACTS)…  BASICALLY, NOBODY HAS LEFT THE GOLD ARENA.  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD ADVANCE IN TONNAGE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPTEMBER ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $4.50. 

 

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  127//

 

 

WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 3540 CONTRACTS  (11.01 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE SMALL RAID.

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1879 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . OCT: 0 DEC: 1879; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1879.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 575,877. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3186 CONTRACTS: 1307 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1879 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 3186 CONTRACTS OR 9.90 TONNES.

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1879) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (1307 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3186 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) ZERO BANKER SHORT COVERING AND ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)A HUGE ADVANCE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT SEPT. MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION;4) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  AND  ...ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY//$4.50.

 

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

THE FACT THAT WE ARE CONTINUALLY SEEING A DROP IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST AND VOLUMES COUPLED WITH LESS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS PROBABLY MEANS THAT OUR LONGS ARE ALREADY DEPARTING NEW YORK FOR THE NEW PHYSICAL PLATFORM AT LONDON’S LME.

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS//OUTLINE

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON OCT  1)

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 44,394, CONTRACTS OR 4,439,400 oz OR 138.08 TONNES (16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2773 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 138.08 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 138.08/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.000% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,517.07  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE EXTREMELY LOW)

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       138.08 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 618 CONTRACTS FROM 158,322, DOWN TO 157,908 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE SMALL  SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1)    ZERO BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING  , 2) A GOOD  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG GAIN IN OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 760 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 SEPT: 0 AND DEC. 760 AND MARCH:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 760 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 618 CONTRACTS TO THE 760 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 142 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 0.710 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.01 FALL IN PRICE///

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.41 POINTS OR 0.17%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 25.66 POINTS OR 0.11%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 13.81 POINTS OR 0.06%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 2.3142%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7913 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7913 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7962 TRADE TALKS STALL////TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS //PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

 

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY BY A SMALL SIZED 1307 CONTRACTS TO 576,231 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND ALL OF THIS SMALL COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL OF $4.50 IN GOLD PRICING /TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1879 CONTRACTS),.  THUS,  WE HAD  1)  ZERO BANKER SHORT COVERING AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3186 CONTRACTS,…….. , PLUS WE HAD 2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  ANOTHER GIGANTIC INCREASE IN TONNAGE  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//SEPT. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED OUR FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3186 CONTRACTS MENTIONED ABOVE. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS WE HAVE WITNESSED A HUGE INCREASE IN EFP ISSUANCE. HOWEVER TODAY WE REVERTED BACK TO LOWER AMOUNTS ISSUED. 

HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS..

 

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 127

 

 

 

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1879 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:   OCT: 0  DEC 1879; FEB// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1879  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 3186 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1879 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL  SIZED 1307 COMEX CONTRACTS.   

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $4.50).  BUT, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A POSITIVE  11.01 TONNES  WITH THE  FALL IN  PRICE

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 3186, CONTRACTS OR 354,000 OZ OR 9.90 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  575,877 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 57.58 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1791 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1792/2200 OR 81.40% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 387,496 contracts// volume good/spreaders initiate their garbage

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  298,098 contracts//  volume: fair //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

SEPT 23 /2020

SEPT. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR SEPT GOLD

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
11,599.475  oz
jpmorgan
hsbc
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

53,013.251

OZ

JPMORGAN

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
298 notice(s)
 29800 OZ
(0.9269 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
50 contracts
(5000 oz)
0.1524 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4707 notices
470700 OZ
14.6406 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 53,013.251 oz

 

 

 

total customer deposit:  53,013.251     oz

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of HSBC:  6776.825 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan:  4822.65 oz

 

.36 tonnes leaves NY probably heading for London

 

 

total withdrawals;  11,599.475 oz  (.36 tonnes)

 

 

 

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1 //

i) Out of HSBC:  104,555.052 adjusted out of the customer and this lands into the dealer account

 

 

 

The front month of SEPT registered a total of 348 contracts for a GAIN of 277 contracts.  We had 50 notices filed on Tuesday, so we gained  327 contracts or an additional 32,700 oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of Sept. Remember that we have been adding to our gold deliveries despite the raid these past 9 days.

Oct LOST A TINY 612 contracts DOWN to 61,021.  Two major points on this:

a) nobody wants to leave the gold arena

b) we can now safely confirm that a major entity is behind October’s numbers.

Probably Goldman Sachs who has been identified as the major player in the new physical platform at the LME is the one who is accumulating gold in a similar fashion to JPMorgan’s accumulation of silver.  Goldman Sachs needs gold to provide liquidity for that new physical exchange.

November gained 64 contracts to stand at 311.

The big December contract GAINED 1182 contracts UP to 427,240 contracts..

THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH OI FOR OCTOBER AND ITS REFUSAL TO CONTRACT (ROLL TO ANOTHER MONTH). GENERALLY OCTOBER IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE ON OCTOBER FOR PHYSICAL METAL. THE REASON FOR THE RAID WAS GOLD AND OCTOBER’S HIGH OI…THE AIM WAS TO FORCE THESE GUYS FROM TAKING DELIVERY BUT TO NO AVAIL!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had  298 notices filed today for  29,800 oz

 

FOR THE SEPT 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 298  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4797) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT (348 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (298 x 100 oz per contract) equals 475,700 OZ OR 14.796 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4797, x 100 oz +348 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (298) x 100 oz which equals 475,700 oz standing OR 14.796 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a SEPT delivery month (a NON active delivery month).

 

We gained 327 contracts or an additional 32,700 oz will try their luck searching for metal on this side of the pond. Somebody today again was in urgent need of physical gold.

 

 

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

334,494.256 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  10.389 TONNES

 

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

261,958.320 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.14 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               19.017 tonnes

51,084.609 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.588 tonnes jpm

total pledged gold:  1,300,323.778 oz                                     40.44 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 446.27 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 14.798 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  15,752,126.236 oz or 489.95 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,300,323.775 oz or 40.44 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 14,451,803.0  (449.51 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  14,451,803.0 (449.51 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,854,222.302 oz (648.65 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  36,606,348.538 oz 1,138,611 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1012,26 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 

 

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

 

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

SEPT 23/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

INITIAL STANDINGS

SEPT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 301,895.740 oz
CNT
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,212,593.600 oz
JPMorgan
Delaware
Manfra
No of oz served today (contracts)
193
CONTRACT(S)
(965,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
67 contracts
 335,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  10,901 contracts

54,505,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposits into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil      oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 3 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i)into JPMorgan:  1,174,824.000 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 2,988.200 oz

iii) Into Manfra: 34,781.400 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan now has 181.363 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.17% of all official comex silver. (181,363 million/368.829 million

 

total customer deposits today:  1,212,595.600   oz

we had 0 withdrawals:

 

total withdrawals; nil    oz

We had 0 adjustments/

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 142.579 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  368.829 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

the front month of SEPTEMBER registered an open interest of 260 contracts thus losing 362 contracts.  We had 439 notices filed on TUESDAY so we GAINED a strong 77 contracts or an additional 385,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of September  as they refused to  morph into London based forwards and thus they also negated a fiat bonus.  Not only are longs standing for delivery over here but also our London boys  exercising serial forward EFP’s circulating over there and  turning them into real physical metal as we now have a full frontal attack on both of our two precious metals.

We thus gained in silver oz standing and in gold despite the vicious raid.

 

Oct saw another GAIN of 35 contracts to stand at 1997.November gained 1 contract to stand at 39,

The big December contract month saw its OI contract by 727 contracts down to 134,936

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPT 2020. contract month is represented by 193 contract(s) FOR 965,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 10,901 x 5,000 oz = 54,505,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT( 260) and the number of notices served upon today 193 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 10,901` (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT  (260)- number of notices served upon today (193) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month .equals 54,840,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH.

We GAINED  77 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 385,000 oz. WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH, AS COMEX LONGS LOOK FOR METAL ON THE THIS SIDE OF THE POND!

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 140,848 CONTRACTS // volume strong// raid volume

 

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY   114,432.  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME// strong/raid

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 114,432 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.572 billion  OZ 81.71% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 2.71% ((SEPT 23/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO -0.09% to NAV:   (SEPT 23/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/2.71%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 18.76 TRADING 18.11///NEGATIVE 3.44

END

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 23//WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 11.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY, A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 18.98 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTER THE GLD///// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.62TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.94 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1259.64TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $10.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT: 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.05 TODAY: A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 15//WITH GOLD UP $2.25 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .43 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD  DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.00 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.92 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 ON THIS 2ND DAY OF A 3 DAY RAID:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 TODAY, WE HAVE 2 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF .87 TONNES AND.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 31//WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES/

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $38.20 TODAY, WE SURPRISINGLY HAD A .59 TONNE WITHDRAWAL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD DOWN 17.50 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1252.09 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $26.70  TODAY/  WE  HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD//RESTS AT 1248.85 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY, WE  HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.20 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.38 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

SEPT 23/ GLD INVENTORY 1267.14 tonnes*

LAST;  907 TRADING DAYS:   +327.73 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 807 TRADING DAYS://+506.26  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 23//WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.048 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.141 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.491 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.43 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.862 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.350MILLION OZ//

SEPT 18. WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.537 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.793 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY:  HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS A) 1.675 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER B) 0.931 MILLION OZ/ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.956 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.63 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.169 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 15  CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.631 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.258 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.430 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 2.WITH SILVER DOWN $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.365 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY REST AT 571.688 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 1//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.982 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.652 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.071 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS  TODAY// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.65 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.074 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24//WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A NO CHANGES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843  MILLION OZ//

 

SEPT 23.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

553.443 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Heavy Metal Selling [Charts]

Anxiety about an increase in Covid19 cases and fears of a second wave coupled with revelations of historic money laundering practices of major global banks weighed heavily on financial markets yesterday.

Precious metals were not immune to the sell off which saw gold below $1,900 and silver off a whopping 12% during intraday trading.

The following charts show the short term support that halted the rout in precious metals by the end of the day.

With the negative news pushing gold through the 50 day moving average and previous short term support at $1,925 (Support #1) it continued the sell off falling as low as $1,880. As with most markets the daily close is significant for traders and gold closed just above the previous support of $1,910 (Support #2).

Gold remains vulnerable in the short term to a further pull back, particularly with a close below $1,910 which could target the next major support level at $1,810

However, the long term the bull trend still remains intact and the fundamentals are extremely supportive of gold. These pull backs present a major opportunity for long term investors to either get invested or add to their gold holdings.

The sell of in silver was much deeper than gold with the white metal being down over 12% at one stage intraday.

Again a breach of short term support triggered by a weakness in the broader markets saw the start of the sell off. Momentum selling took silver through the support at the 50 day moving average and it didn’t find support until just above the previous major support level at $24.65. Similar to gold, close below this support level could pave the way for a further pull ack to the next major support level close o $23.00.

A resumption of the uptrend short term would require a close above $26.65.

Silver is always the more volatile of the precious metals and one day pullbacks by their nature tend to be larger than one day rallies. However, like gold the long term uptrend in silver remains intact and the fundamentals that underpin silver are stronger than ever.

Precious metals will always be vulnerable to the sell offs in the broader markets in the short term but  this can present opportunities for the shrewd investor.

 

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

22-Sep-20 1903.10 1906.00 1487.46 1493.16 1621.63 1625.25
21-Sep-20 1930.90 1909.35 1503.21 1489.48 1638.18 1624.47
18-Sep-20 1954.75 1950.85 1505.16 1508.01 1647.85 1648.66
17-Sep-20 1936.10 1936.25 1494.67 1499.82 1642.78 1640.20
16-Sep-20 1964.80 1961.80 1521.15 1512.55 1654.56 1656.74
15-Sep-20 1963.55 1949.35 1523.13 1513.09 1652.13 1644.67
14-Sep-20 1942.30 1958.70 1511.69 1518.97 1638.14 1648.83
11-Sep-20 1944.50 1947.40 1519.82 1523.06 1639.41 1644.38
10-Sep-20 1944.80 1966.25 1493.41 1519.71 1643.74 1651.26
09-Sep-20 1928.40 1947.20 1489.69 1496.62 1638.56 1647.14
08-Sep-20 1920.60 1910.95 1467.72 1466.27 1626.17 1622.40
07-Sep-20 1928.40 1928.45 1463.08 1465.43 1629.88 1631.47
04-Sep-20 1937.60 1926.30 1456.49 1459.56 1634.75 1633.12
03-Sep-20 1934.10 1940.45 1453.86 1459.99 1635.28 1637.74
02-Sep-20 1969.00 1947.05 1475.17 1462.43 1659.47 1645.45

 

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ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

A good read:

the corruption of Wall Street banks as the Fed shovels tirllions of dollars of loans at less than 1%

(Pam and Russ Martens)

Pam and Russ Martens: Corporate news organizations conceal crimes of Wall Street banks

 Section: 

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Tuesday, September 22, 2020

There are two opposing narratives living side by side in the United States: independent journalists and researchers have documented how the behemoth banks on Wall Street are as crooked as ever, while the Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, repeatedly tells Congress and the press that these banks are a “source of strength” in this economic crisis.

Never mind that the Fed is flooding these banks with trillions of dollars in cumulative loans at less than 1 percent interest.

… 

Corporate-owned mainstream media that are dependent on financing from these same banks prefer the Fed’s alternative version of reality.

 

Wall Street On Parade has repeatedly written about critical reports showing serial corruption at these banks that have been censored by those Pulitzer Prize-winning media outlets.
Yesterday provided another example: The New York Times refused to cover the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists’ stunning report on how five of the biggest banks on Wall Street have continued to launder dirty money for fugitives and suspected criminals.

The Wall Street Journal, whose name suggests that perhaps its focus should be Wall Street, failed to put the story on its front page, opting instead to bury it under an innocuous headline about HSBC’s stock hitting a new low. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/09/theres-a-pattern-of-corporate-med…

end

iii) Other physical stories:

This is just the beginning

(zerohedge)

JPMorgan To Pay Record $1 Billion Settlement Over Precious Metals, Treasury Manipulation

Last week, we reported that as Deutsche Bank’s infamous gold manipulator and spoofer – and currently star witness for the prosecution in a massive case targinet precious metal manipulation – David Liew, admitted “spoofing was so commonplace I figured it was ok.” Well, it wasn’t ok, but since everyone else was doing it, we can see why Liew was confused.

And speaking of everyone else also manipulating and spoofing gold, we go from Deutsche Bank straight to JPMorgan, which according to Bloomberg is set to pay a record $1 billion settlement to resolve market manipulation investigations by U.S. authorities into its trading of metals futures and Treasury securities.

A penalty approaching $1 billion would far exceed previous spoofing-related fines. It would also be on par with sanctions in many prior manipulation cases, including some brought several years ago against banks for allegedly rigging benchmark interest rates and foreign exchange markets.

The settlement amount, the highest in history of its kind, may be announced as soon as this week said anonymous Bloomberg sources. Its payment would also end probes by the DOJ, CFTC and SEC into whether traders on JPMorgan’s precious metals and treasuries desks rigged markets. Which, of course, they did.  In fact, a cynical take would suggest that JPM is merely paying a kickback to the various regulators for the mistake of having been caught rigging various markets.

And since JPM is about to pay a small fraction of the profits it made from manipulating gold and rates markets, said rigging and manipulation with tremendous IRR will resume shortly, only this time JPM’s traders will be far more careful not to get caught, which in retrospect was their only crime.

According to the report, it’s unclear if the largest US commercial bank will face additional DOJ penalties in court:

Previous spoofing cases have been resolved without banks or trading firms pleading guilty to criminal charges. However, when prosecutors filed cases last year against individual JPMorgan traders they painted a grave picture of its precious metals desk, saying it operated as an illicit enterprise within the bank for almost a decade.

What we do know is that once JPM pays the fee – which it may well have funded from one of the numerous bank bailout schemes unleashed by the Fed in recent months – the government’s settlement with JPMorgan is not expected to result in any restrictions on its business practices.

And in what will come as a shock to many, unlike most settlements which are resolved with the guilty party neither admitting nor denying guilt, in this case it is anticipated that JPMorgan will admit to wrongdoing. Just wonderful: the bank made billions rigging rates and gold, and as punishment ends up paying a small portion of the profits and admitting what it did was wrong.

Surely that will teach it a lesson.

And just so we are clear on why Jamie Dimon is “richer than you“, in 2015 JPMorgan pled guilty to massive currency manipulation, paying a $550 million fine to the Justice Department. The bank also paid penalties to U.S. regulators.

It can now add treasurys and precious metals manipulation.

The record JPMorgan settlement follows criminal charges filed last year against several of its employees, including former head of the precious metals desk, Michael Nowak, when the DOJ used racketeering laws more commonly used in mafia and drug gang prosecutions, alleging the precious metals desk effectively became a criminal enterprise for eight years.

Nowak and three others accused in the case pleaded not guilty and are seeking to have the charges dismissed. Two other former traders have pleaded guilty to conspiracy claims and are cooperating. Shortly after Nowak was charged, JPMorgan learned it was the focus of a separate but related criminal investigation into the bank’s trading of Treasury securities and futures, according to another person familiar with the matter. JPMorgan, which disclosed that investigation earlier this year, said it’s cooperating with authorities.

So much for that RICO case: JPM pays $1 billion and all is forgiven.

  1. How long can it possibly take for John Edmonds to divulge everything he knows?
  2. Has Jamie Demon, JP Morgan CEO, or former head of JP Morgan Commodities Group Blythe Masters, been questioned about their possible roles in the gold spoofing operation of their bank?
  3. Given that the feds have gone after JP Morgan bankers under the RICO act, this implies that JP Morgan was running a systemically criminal gold spoofing operation that, by nature, would imply the involvement of much higher level JP Morgan executives in this scheme than even the head of their Metals Trading desk.
  4. What is the identity of these higher level JP Morgan executives, if true? At least two of the interrogated and arrested JP Morgan has admitted that the gold price manipulation scheme went very high up the corporate hierarchy at JP Morgan.
  5. What is Mr. Edmonds response to this drawn out inquisition? Does he feel like he is possibly being set-up to be “Epsteined” to keep knowledge of this criminal scheme at the highest echelons of JP Morgan from coming to light?
  6. Since Edmonds’s arrest, the feds have charged at least four more JP Morgan bankers, Michael Nowak, Gregg Smith, and Christopher Jordan with racketeering charges under the federal RICO act normally reserved for prosecuting low-life gangsters, drug dealers, and mafia members. For example, the US Justice Department invoked the RICO act in 1984 to convict Florida Deputy Police Chief Raymond Cassamayor for running a cocaine smuggling operation and in 1992, to convict John Gotti and Frank Locascio of the infamous Gambino crime family. Both Christopher Jordan and Michael Nowak could face up to 30-years in prison if convicted.  JP Morgan Metals Desk Executive Director Jeffrey Ruffo was charged in December 2019. John Edmonds was originally reported upon his arrest in 2018 as facing the same prison time. Has his squealing resulted in the arrest of his three colleagues mentioned above and if so, has he gained a significant reduction in prison time for his cooperation?
  7. JP Morgan banker have testified that they learned how to effectively spoof gold prices lower in futures markets from Bear Stearns, which makes absolute sense, since Bear Stearns bankers, for decades, were alleged to have been at the head of the class in artificially manufacturing waterfall like type price declines in silver futures markets. It was no surprise, that after the 2008 financial collapse of Bear Stearns, JP Morgan agreed to step in and keep the silver price manipulation scheme going with the assumption of Bear Stearn’s massive short positions in the silver futures markets. Since John Edmonds was arrested, the US Justice Department has brought cases against 16 more bankers employed by Deutsche Bank and United Bank of Switzerland. Is this a result, again, of John Edmonds’s cooperation with the Feds?
  8. With the Feds bringing cases against bankers from many different global banking institutions for gold and silver price manipulation, what is their end goal in this RICO sting operation? Is it all a smoke and mirrors game executed to deceive the public into thinking justice, for the first time in decades, will actually be enforced? Will bankers actually receive the long prison sentences they deserve, or will all strike a deal and be slapped only with fines that amount to a fraction of the billions they stole from investors through their executed price suppression scheme in the gold and silver futures markets and will they all walk?

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.7913/ 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7984   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 5.41 POINTS OR 0.17%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 25.66 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 13.81 POINTS OR 0.06%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 94.01/Euro FALLS TO 1.1698

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.07/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 39.89 and Brent: 41.90

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.50%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.85% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.23%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.45: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.01

3k Gold at $1883.60 silver at: 23.35   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 73/100 in roubles/dollar) 76.83

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.85 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9213 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0768 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.50%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.676% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.425%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.6893..

Futures Extend Rebound As Nike Soars, Tesla Tumbles; Powell On Deck For 2nd Day

S&P futures and global stocks rose on Wednesday for the second day as Tuesday’s global rebound extended after the recent correction, ahead of data that would throw light on the pace of an economic recovery from a coronavirus-driven recession. Investors also waited for a second speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell who will appear before the House Select Subcommittee on the coronavirus to discuss the central bank’s response. The dollar extended its impressive Tuesday gains while 10Y yields were fractionally higher.

 

Nike was set for a record open after a stunning quarterly earnings report. Shares of the world’s largest athletic shoe maker surged 13.2% in premarket trading as its digital sales, especially in North America, helped offset a fall in sales at traditional brick-and-mortar stores. The Dow constituent was set to drive the blue-chip index higher for a second straight day, clawing back more of the sharp declines from Monday that were driven by fears of another round of lockdowns to contain a global surge in COVID-19 cases.

On the other end, Tesla fell 4.8% in premarket trading as the goals announced at Tuesday’s “Battery Day” event was a dud and Musk failed to impress with his promise to cut electric vehicle costs. Oracle headed lower after a report by a state-backed Chinese newspaper said Beijing was unlikely to approve a proposed deal by the software maker and Walmart for ByteDance’s TikTok.

Meanwhile, Russia’s largest internet company Yandex surged 9.2% in premarket after it said it’s in talks to buy TCS Group Holding Plc for about $5.48 billion. Elsewhere, the FAANGs edged higher before the bell. The group has borne the brunt of the declines this month after fuelling a Wall Street rally since March.

Overall sentiment remains skittish as doubts about more U.S. fiscal stimulus and growing political uncertainty in the run-up to the Nov. 3 presidential elections have kept investors from making big stock market bets.

“We are seeing a solid bounce, but it’s in the context of a very sharp pullback on Monday, which was a reset,” said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst in London for Markets.com. “We had bulls just tipping their toes back in the water, and the higher closes — as small as they were — seems to have been enough to cue today’s gains.”

“If we get a second (COVID-19) wave, it could have a significant impact on the election itself and that’s why markets have been wobbly in the last few days,” said Andrea Cicione, head of strategy at TS Lombard in London.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index climbed 1.5%, the biggest gain in two weeks, helped by a jump German stocks after manufacturing data rose to a two-year high. Auto companies and travel stocks led the advance in Europe, with gains of 2.8% for both. Despite stronger German mfg PMI, the service sector stumbled and broader Eurozone data showed eurozone business growth ground to a halt this month with the post-Covid economic recovery stumbling this month, as the latest Euro area composite PMI declined by 1.8pt to 50.1 in September, notably below expectations. Across sectors, the overall decline was concentrated in the service sector, with the pace of recovery in manufacturing reaccelerating from August:

  • Euro Area Composite PMI: 50.1, consensus 51.9, last 51.9.
  • Euro Area Manufacturing PMI: 53.7, consensus 51.9, last 51.7.
  • Euro Area Services PMI: 47.6, consensus 50.6, last 50.5.

 

And the sharp divergence in Germany:

  • Germany Composite PMI: 53.7, consensus 54.0, last 54.4.
  • German Services PMI: 49.1, consensus 53.0, last 52.5
  • German Manufacturing PMI: 56.6, consensus 52.5

 

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were fractionally higher, with health care rising and energy falling, after falling in the last. Markets in the region were mixed, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 and Singapore’s Straits Times Index rising, and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index and Taiwan’s Taiex Index falling. The Topix declined 0.1%, with Daiichi Kigenso and Land Co falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2%, with EGing Photovoltaic Technology and Jinko Power Technology posting the biggest advances

Chinese state-run media decounced the TikTok deal as “an American trap” and a “dirty and underhanded trick” as sentiment in Beijing swings against the proposal. TikTok owner ByteDance said it would remain in control of the new entity that would be created in the agreement, pushing back on President Donald Trump’s assertions that Oracle Corp. would be in control. The wider context of resistance from China is that the country’s leaders do not want to be seen to be pushed around by unilateral U.S. actions.

Looking at today’s main event in markets, Fed Chair Powell is in Congress again testifying to a House select subcommittee on the coronavirus response from 10:00 a.m. Yesterday he said the U.S. economy has a long way to go before it is fully recovered and that more support will be needed.

In other overnight news, while there is still very little progress on reaching a new stimulus deal, there was some relief late yesterday when an agreement to keep the government funded through Dec. 11 was reached, avoiding a shutdown just before the election. More importantly, Republican moves to get a confirmation hearing for Trump’s Supreme Court nominee in the coming weeks now seem unstoppable, after Democrats gained little support in the Senate for a delay.

In FX, the dollar advanced a fourth day after breaking above a key technical resistance level. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was set for its longest run of gains since June as the greenback continued its rebound and advanced versus most Group-of-10 peers. The euro erased losses, after falling to 1.1672 in early London trading, despite weaker- than-forecast European services PMI data. The pound also steadied after dropping following comments by Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab on not being able to rule out a nationwide shutdown. The Australian dollar led declines after influential Westpac Banking Corp. economist Bill Evans predicted the central bank would cut interest rates at its Oct. 6 meeting; the New Zealand dollar also slipped, with the central bank maintaining the size of its quantitative easing program and keeping rates unchanged.

In rates, treasury yields are slightly cheaper in early U.S. trading as Asia-session gains – led by steep gains for Aussie bonds – eroded ahead of 5-year note auction. Yields are cheaper by about 0.5bp from intermediates to long end with 10-year around 0.675%, trading broadly in line with bunds; gilts outperform slightly, about 0.5bp richer vs. Treasuries. Treasury auction cycle resumes with $53b 5-year note at 1pm ET, concludes with 7-year Thursday. Italian bonds rallied to send 30-year yields to an all-time low with investors continuing to snap up the securities on fading domestic political risk and support from European institutions. Elsewhere, Zambia became the first African country to ask bondholders for relief since the onset of the coronavirus.

In commodities oil was unchanged after fluctuating earlier, while gold continues to slide, dropping below $1,900 earlier and sliding below the 50DMA.

Looking at the day ahead, in addition to Powell speaking in the House, there is a slew of Fed speakers today, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Latest U.S. government crude stockpile data is at 10:30 a.m. President Trump is due to speak to state attorneys general on social media abuses. The UN General Assembly continues.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 3,314.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 362.11
  • MXAP up 0.09% to 171.12
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 557.55
  • Nikkei down 0.06% to 23,346.49
  • Topix down 0.1% to 1,644.25
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 23,742.51
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,279.71
  • Sensex down 1% to 37,353.04
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 2.4% to 5,923.93
  • Kospi up 0.03% to 2,333.24
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to -0.513%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1689
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.2 bps to 0.661%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 0.217%
  • Brent futures up 0.4% to $41.87/bbl
  • Gold spot down 1.1% to $1,879.89
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.94

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The European Central Bank risks legal trouble if it tries to extend the “emergency powers” of its pandemic bond-buying plan to its other asset-purchase program, according to Executive Board member Yves Mersch
  • SNB President Thomas Jordan has taken his foot off the pedal after the most aggressive currency intervention in five years early in the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic
  • The euro area’s economic recovery stalled this month as consumers fretted about a resurgence of the coronavirus and governments reinstated restrictions to control the spread of the disease
  • Banks from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to HSBC Holdings Plc have hit pause on plans to return workers in London after Prime Minister Boris Johnson appealed to Britons to work from home to help tame a resurgent coronavirus
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. is moving about 200 billion euros ($230 billion) from the U.K. to Frankfurt as a result of Britain’s exit from the European Union

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asian equity markets traded mixed and failed to take full impetus from the rebound across their global peers, with the region tentative amid ongoing US-China tensions and with Japan suffering post-holiday blues on return from the extended weekend. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (+2.4%) outperformed and is on track for its best day in seven weeks as tech names led the broad advances after they found inspiration from the resurgence of the sector stateside, with sentiment also buoyed by increasing calls for the RBA to cut rates at next month’s meeting after RBA Deputy Governor Debelle recently outlined policy options. Nikkei 225 (U/C) was subdued as it played catch up to the recent days’ weakness and with Panasonic shares pressured alongside fellow Tesla supplier LG Chem after the EV-maker’s Battery Day Event fell flat where Elon Musk announced plans for a reduction in costs and to manufacture its own batteries, while he also showcased the Model S Plaid which is to be available next year. Conversely, Fujifilm Holdings was at the other side of the spectrum after announcing its Avigan drug met the primary endpoint in Phase 3 COVID trials. Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) were indecisive as the continued PBoC liquidity efforts were offset by ongoing US-China tensions after US President Trump put China on blast for the spread of the coronavirus at the virtual UN meeting, while Beijing later criticized President Trump of spreading “political virus”. In addition, the uncertainty regarding the TikTok deal persists and the US House also overwhelmingly passed the forced labour bill which would ban imports from China’s Xinjiang region that were produced using forced labour. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher amid the risk averse tone in Japan and with the BoJ also in the market for nearly JPY 1.3tln of JGBs in up to 10yr maturities, while it also offered to purchase 3yr-5yr corporate bonds.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong’s BEA Is Said to Press Ahead With Life Insurance Sale
  • Richard Li’s FWD Said to Plan Up to $3 Billion Hong Kong IPO
  • Malaysia Leader Calls for Stability After Anwar Claims Majority
  • Hong Kong Traders Chased 1,600-1 Odds to Buy IPO That Flopped

European equities are back on the grind higher (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%) after experience a fleeting blip lower on the back of French Services PMI dipping back into contractionary territory on second wave woes. The region picked up the baton from a mixed APAC handover, with reports also noting that the ECB as called upon Brussels to make the EU Recovery Fund a permanent measure. Bourses in the EU are seeing broad-based gains, whilst UK’s FTSE (+2.2%) ploughs ahead initially with the aid of a softer Sterling. Meanwhile UBS Wealth Management sees UK domestic banks falling 15-20% and insurance stocks decline by 7-10% in a no-deal Brexit scenario, but expects double digit positive returns from UK equities over the next 9-12 months in the event of a deal. Sectors in Europe are higher across the board with a slight cyclical/value bias, although material names do not fare so well amid the USD-induced declines across the metals complex. Consumer Discretionary meanwhile tops the charts with the aid of Nike (+13% pre-mkt) post-earnings, who beat on both top and bottom lines whilst reporting digital sales +82% YY – thus bolstering the likes of Adidas (+5.7%), Puma (+4.6%) and JD Sports (+5.1%). In terms of the breakdown, Travel & Leisure leads the gains, closely followed by Autos and Banks. Turning to individual movers, Osram Licht (+14.6%) is the top Stoxx 600 gainer after ASM (+1.4%) has signed a denomination and profit and loss transfer agreement with Osram as part of the takeover process.

Top European News

  • Europe’s Economic Revival Put on Hold by Virus Resurgence
  • U.K. Recovery Slows as Households Start to Rein In Spending
  • Sunak Urged to Save U.K. Firms From ‘Ruin’ of Covid Curbs
  • Merkel Resists Full Ban on Huawei, Making Germany an Outlier

In FX, the Dollar has extended its impressive recovery rally, partly in relief that the House finally passed the stopgap spending bill to avert a Government shutdown, but mainly as the Greenback continues to regain its global safe-haven and reserve status amidst the ongoing resurgence in COVID-19 that is accelerating outside the US and notably across Europe again. As a result, the index breached 94.000 and topped out just above 94.250, with several Buck/major pairings looking very vulnerable near or through psychological/round number levels.

  • AUD/NZD – Dovish RBA calls via Westpac and NAB both looking for 15 bp cuts at the October meeting, plus a dovish RBNZ hold overnight, leaving the door wide open for more easing and in the offing or in the pipeline, an FLP by the end of 2020, according to the accompanying statement, have all added further pressure on the Aussie and Kiwi, with the former struggling to stay above 0.7100 and latter even less assured around 0.6600 ahead of NZ trade data.
  • CAD – Some solace for the Loonie from relative stability in oil prices, but not enough momentum to convincingly reclaim 1.3300+ status within a 1.3345-1.3294 range awaiting the reopening of Canadian Parliament by PM Trudeau.
  • CHF/EUR/GBP/JPY – All narrowly mixed vs the Dollar, but not before losing grip of 0.9200, 1.1700, 1.2700 and 105.00 handles respectively in advance of Thursday’s quarterly SNB policy review and following mixed Eurozone/UK prelim PMIs where services sector weakness outweighed manufacturing strength to keep the composite readings compressed. However, Sterling was undermined by domestic factors related to the coronavirus and warnings from Foreign Minister Raab about latest restrictions not going far enough to rule out the risk of reverting to full lockdown. Cable plumbed fresh lows around 1.2677 and Eur/Gbp retested recent peaks circa 0.9220 in response, but the Pound has subsequently received a reprieve from EU’s Barnier expressing determination to strike a Brexit trade deal. Elsewhere, pretty standard commentary from BoJ Governor Kuroda has marked the return of Japanese markets from their 4-day break, but not really the Yen between 104.91-105.19 parameters eyeing mega option expiries for tomorrow that span 105.00 in an even tighter band (104.90-105.10).
  • SCANDI/EM – The Norwegian Crown continues to slip closer towards the sentimental if not technically significant 11.0000 level vs the Euro regardless of crude finding a base as noted above, but the Swedish Krona is still benefiting from Riksbank rigidity on the repo staying at the zero lower bound until this time in 2023. On that note, the Turkish Lira will be looking for continuity and some much needed support from the CBRT on Thursday via a form of indirect tightening as it plumbs almost daily record lows, and more immediately the Czech Koruna has the CNB to provide direction, albeit with no change in rates expected.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have nursed the losses seen in APAC hours, as sentiment in Europe picks back up after the EZ Services PMI fell back contraction but manufacturing topped estimates across the board. The initial weakness in the crude markets stemmed from a surprise build in the Private Inventory data (+0.7mln vs. Exp. -2.3mln), whilst concern remains over the demand implications from the reimposition of lockdowns and quarantine travel rules, with the Gazprom CEO also noting that we are seeing global oil demand recovery slowing down due to pandemic, and expects global oil consumption to return to pre-crisis level in H2 2021. In terms of the reopening supply from Libya, reports yesterday noted that next week could see output of some 260k BPD (vs. 1mln BPD pre-blockade), although analysts at ING downplay the relevance, noting that “In the current environment, where there are clear concerns over demand, additional supply will do little to help rebalance the market.” Something else to be aware of: reports noted that Chinese refiners are requesting additional import quotas for the fourth quota, having had taken advantage of the lower oil prices earlier this year. Desks note that further quota allocation could support the physical market. Aside from that, news-flow has remained relatively light for the complex thus far, WTI Nov meanders around USD 39.85/bbl (vs. low USD 39.26/bbl), while its Brent counterpart resides around 41.85/bbl (vs. low 41.21/bbl), awaiting the weekly EIA inventory data – with headline crude stocks seen drawing 2.325mln barrels. Elsewhere, precious metals initially succumb to the firmer Dollar and broader gains in stocks. Spot gold moves further below the USD 1900/oz mark to find support at USD 1875/oz, and has picked up given the most recent slip in the USD, whilst spot silver found a current base around the USD 23/oz level. Base metals are also mostly lower – with LME copper weighed on by the firmer Buck and lackluster China performance, whilst Dalian iron ore futures fell for a third straight days as higher shipments from mainstream miners weighed on prices.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.5%
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.45%, prior 0.9%
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53.5, prior 53.1; Services PMI, est. 54.5, prior 55; Composite PMI, prior 54.6

Fed Speakers:

  • 9am: Fed’s Mester Discusses Payments and the Pandemic
  • 10am: Powell Appears before House Panel on Covid-19
  • 11am: Fed’s Evans Discusses the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
  • 12pm: Fed’s Rosengren Discusses U.S. Economy
  • 1pm: Fed’s Kashkari Discusses Public Health
  • 1pm: Fed’s Bostic Speaks to Hale County Chamber of Commerce
  • 2pm: Fed’s Quarles Gives Speech on the Economic Outlook
  • 3pm: Fed’s Daly Discusses Labor Force Implications of Covid-19

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I suspect this won’t be the last Zoom call I do from home after the U.K. yesterday effectively encouraged those who can work from home to do so – and possibly for the next 6 months. Today also sees a big change in the weather here as the Indian Summer has come to an abrupt end. Winter is coming in more ways than one. On the virus we’ve revamped our daily cases and fatality tables that appear in the PDF (click view report above) and given they are sorted worst to best they show that the U.K. is certainly not at the top of the second wave, but restrictions are nonetheless being tightened as case numbers build (4,926 yesterday and the highest since early May). In addition to WFH guidance, all hospitality venues must now close at 10pm daily from Thursday. In a nationwide address Johnson stressed the desire to avoid a full lockdown scenarios saying, “we must do all we can to avoid going down that road again.” Though if the infections continue to rise the government naturally left the option on the table. Meanwhile in Scotland, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon went even further, with a ban on households visiting other households indoors.

The virus news flow has been a difficult backdrop for markets this week but US markets started to gather some momentum after Europe went home last night. There was a particular reversal in US technology stocks, which continued to outperform after the late-session rally on Monday. The S&P 500 broke a four-day slide and gained +1.05%, however cyclicals sectors like Banks (-1.89%), Autos (-1.13%) and Energy (-1.03%) continued to lag. Retail (+3.64%), Media (+2.24%) and Software (+1.94%) all the led the S&P higher as the tech gains saw the NASDAQ rally +1.71%. This could again signal that the stay-at-home trade is coming back into vogue with further restrictions being seen in Europe. Europe still saw a slight recovery from Monday’s worst day for three months as the STOXX 600 climbed +0.20% higher.

Asian markets are mixed this morning with the Nikkei (-0.36%) and Kospi (-0.25%) both down while the Hang Seng (-0.01%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.02%) are trading broadly flat and the Asx (+2.15%) is up partly helped by stronger preliminary PMIs (more below). Japanese markets have reopened post 2 days of holiday. In overnight news, Tesla’s “Battery Day” event came short of expectations for a blockbuster leap forward as the company laid out a roadmap to build a $25,000 car only by 2023 which disappointed some. The stock was down -7% in aftermarket trading. This is also weighing on Nasdaq futures (-0.38%) while those on the S&P 500 are trading broadly flat.In fx, the US dollar index is up a further +0.25% this morning after yesterday’s +0.47% advance.

In other news, the US House passed a stopgap funding bill to keep the government operating through Dec. 11 after both parties in Congress and officials at the White House struck a deal to provide aid to farmers and food assistance for low-income families. The temporary spending bill will now move to the Senate for a vote.

Today, investors will be watching out for the flash PMIs for September, which will give us an early indication of how the global economy has fared this month. Overnight we’ve already had readings from Japan and Australia, with Japan struggling to recover further as manufacturing PMI rose by just 0.1 pt to 47.3 while the services reading improved to 45.6 (vs. 45.0 last month). Australia’s readings were a bit more robust with manufacturing PMI climbing to 55.5 (vs. 53.6 last month) and the services reading printing at 50.0 (vs. 49.0 last month). Australia’s reading seem to be helped partly by the easing of lockdown in Victoria, the second largest state. With infections rising again in Europe, not least in the UK, France and Spain, the question is to what extent this will impact on economic activity there as well. DB’s Peter Sidorov put out a piece yesterday (link here) in which he writes that his analysis points to a slight upside risk to the Euro Area PMI because of mobility trends, which has been rising in September. We’ll get those releases this morning.

Back to yesterday, and Fed Chair Powell appeared before the House Financial Services panel, where he again stressed the need to keep the virus under control and for further policy actions from “all levels of government.” Secretary Mnuchin who testified alongside the Fed Chair said that he and the President he would continue to seek Congressional agreement on further fiscal stimulus. Though now Congress seems like it will be more focused on a supreme court confirmation than fiscal stimulus in the short term. The Fed Chair said the Fed has only purchased $1.5 billion in loans so far through its Main Street Lending Program. The program is a $600 billion facility backed by Treasury funds, which aims to provide credit to small-mid sized companies. Mnuchin did bring up the idea of reallocating some of the unused money in Fed facilities to other uses, though it would require congressional approval.

There were a few other central bank headlines. From the ECB, we had Fabio Panetta of the Executive Board saying that “the risks of a policy overreaction are much smaller than the risks of policy being too slow or too shy to react and the worst-case scenarios materialising.” And over in the UK, Bank of England Governor Bailey downplayed the prospect of an imminent move to negative rates after last week’s MPC minutes showed that they were exploring the operational considerations of such a move.

In fixed income, there was a sharp narrowing of sovereign bond spreads in Europe, particularly following the regional election results in Italy that were regarded as positive for the government’s stability. Yields on 10yr BTPs fell -5.2bps to their lowest levels in almost a year, moving below the levels they were at before the pandemic hit the country in late February. And with the selloff for bunds, that sent the BTP-bund spread down -7.7bps to 1.37%, its lowest level in 7 months. Elsewhere, US Treasury yields saw a slight +0.5bps move higher, as the dollar index climbed a further +0.35% to reach its highest level in nearly 2 months.

Staying on the US, and with less than 6 weeks now until the election, President Trump said that he’d announce his choice this Saturday at 5pm (Washington Time) on who would replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court. In a positive development for Trump, Senator Mitt Romney said that he’s in favour of moving forward with a confirmation vote on Trump’s choice, which leaves just 2 Republican senators out of the 53-member caucus who have opposed going ahead with a vote. With Trump’s choice on Saturday and the first debate between himself and Biden this Tuesday, the coming week will be one of the most important yet ahead of election day on November 3rd.

Looking at yesterday’s data, existing home sales in the US rose to an annualised rate of 6.00m in August, in line with expectations, and the most since 2006. Meanwhile the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey rose to 21 (vs. 12 expected). Finally, the advance consumer confidence reading from the Euro Area in September rose to -13.9 (vs. -14.7 expected). This was its highest level since March, but still some way below the -6.6 reading back in February before the full impact of the pandemic became apparent.

To the day ahead now, and the aforementioned flash PMIs will be one of the key highlights. Otherwise, there are an array of Fed speakers, including Chair Powell before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, as well as the Vice Chair Quarles, Mester, Evans, Rosengren, Kashkari, Bostic and Daly. The ECB’s Hernandez de Cos will also be speaking.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.41 POINTS OR 0.17%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 25.66 POINTS OR 0.11%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 13.81 POINTS OR 0.06%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 2.3142%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7913 /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7913 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7962 TRADE TALKS STALL////TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS //PANDEMIC  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

So much for freedom of speech in China

(zerohedge)

Chinese Property Tycoon Sentenced To 18 Years In Prison After Calling President Xi A “Clown”

President Xi’s intolerance for criticism is widely known to the outside world – and feared within China.

The Chinese internet was scrubbed of practically all references to the children’s cartoon “Winnie the Pooh” because some Chinese dissidents mocked Xi over his alleged ‘resemblance’ to the character, even using it as a code word (for the record, they call Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam “piglet”).

And in the latest example of the heavy handed punishments that await anybody who dares criticize the ‘dear leader’, a former Chinese property tycoon who openly mocked Beijing’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic has just been sentenced to 18 years in prison on corruption charges.

The sentence was handed down after Ren Zhiqiang, former chairman of the state-owned real estate group, disappeared in March after publishing an essay where he apparently called President Xi “a clown”. It was published after Xi unveiled plans for combating the virus.

Of course, the official charges against Ren included embezzlement and accepting bribes, since Xi typically removes his detractors under the auspices of his anti-corruption drive.

The Beijing No. 2 Intermediate Court found 69-year-old Ren guilty of embezzlement, bribery, misuse of public funds and abuse of power at a state-owned business, according to a notice released on Tuesday by the court. A real-estate developer for most of his career, he was known as a “big cannon” for his outspokenness and even earned the nickname “China’s Donald Trump.”

The court accused Ren of embezzling $7.3 million in public money, and accused him of accepting bribes of more than $180,000, while misusing around $9 million. He also alleged abused his power and caused losses of more than $17 million at the state-owned enterprise, while he personally profited.

end
CHINA/USA//TIKTOK

China Slams TikTok Deal As “American Trap”, CCP Won’t Kowtow To “Bullying And Robber Logic”

Despite President Trump claiming he had given the TikTok-Oracle/Wal-Mart deal “his blessing” over the weekend, it looks like the deal will fall apart now that the administration has abandoned its Sunday deadline, while Beijing has sent word through the state-controlled press that it simply won’t allow the White House to ‘steal’ TikTok from ByteDance (a company that is 40% owned by American investors).

On Wednesday morning, more state-backed newspapers slammed the deal, adding their voices to the chorus started by the GT.

The People’s Daily warned the so-called “cooperation agreement” with TikTok is “a trap” – an attempt by the US to ‘take advantage’ of ByteDance under the auspices of “commercial cooperation”.

Trump’s “national security” claims are “just an excuse”, the PD argued…

The US is absolutely good at playing routines. Sometimes it looks like a step back, but in fact it is pressing harder. In this “hunting” against Tik Tok, the United States has always used national security as an excuse, but it is in fact untenable. Security is just an excuse. The real approach in the United States is to exert extreme pressure and public opinion, to break through the moral bottom line, to constantly dig traps and bring rhythm. In the depths of the trap, the great rod of power has already been prepared. Aiming at a technology company, the world’s number one power actually used its full power, using the President’s Executive Order and the Ministry of Commerce’s ban.

…and if ByteDance falls for this trickery, Washington will destroy ByteDance and TikTok, just like it did to Alstom, to Toshiba and to Huawei, the paper argued.

“Commercial competition no longer relies on honesty and bottom line,” the paper continued. “The superiority of technological hegemony needs to be maintained by political cards.”

This deal is only the “starting point” for “bullying and robber logic.”

How familiar is this technique. Because of the “American trap”, Toshiba, a Japanese company that once led the world in the semiconductor industry, has difficulty finding a chance to make a comeback. Because of the “American trap”, the French business giant Alstom, which once spanned the global electric energy and rail transit industries, has been “dismembered” by the Americans. If these lessons are not enough, the Chinese people understand Huawei’s bloody struggle in the US in the past two years.

For a country that is trying to dominate forever, this is not a fuss, but a “precision strike.” All opponents stronger than it in a certain aspect are targets of strike. Commercial competition no longer relies on honesty and bottom line, and the superiority of technological hegemony needs to be maintained by political cards. “America first” has become a stark declaration of hegemony. As long as the United States is no longer dominant in any aspect, it will use political tools. This trick has been tried and tested repeatedly, and it is the starting point for bullying and robber logic.

The Trump Administration’s skullduggery in trying to crush a competitor isn’t just a problem for China. “A hegemonic country…cannot tolerate any country above it.”

Kyle Bass reminded us on Tuesday  that China’s claims are simply more ‘pot calling the kettle black’. By giving ByteDance a hard time, the Trump administration is essentially giving China a taste of its own medicine (foreign companies operating in Beijing are subjected to a host of controls, including forced partnerships with domestic entities), Bass argued

Still, the editorial continued: “China, which has gone through ups and downs, will not hide or turn a blind eye to difficulties and challenges, obstacles and variables, and will not panic or get confused. After the wind and rain, it is a rainbow.It has withstood the test again and again, and we will finally go through the wind and rain and usher in a better tomorrow.”

Gao Zhikai, a prominent former diplomat and translator, warned that the saga has sparked “complete disbelief” among Chinese leaders: “China wants to emphasize that the Chinese companies’ legitimate rights cannot be violated without consequences.” Others reminded the US of threats, leaked over the weekend, that Beijing might respond to the US’s latest aggression by restricting trade, investment and visas for certain American companies by adding them to an “unreliable entities” list that Beijing used as a cudgel during the trade talks with Washington. This just further cements the impression that the TikTok-Oracle deal was just another “for show” agreement, like the ‘Phase 1’ trade deal.

Another Chinese source told Bloomberg that a deal could still get done, but China can’t “play in favor” of the Trump Administration, since that would anger hard-core nationalists who still hold a lot of sway within the party. The deal is technically still in flux, though most expect Beijing to reject the deal over Trump’s insistence that ByteDance give up more of its control over the newly independent TikTok.

According to media reports, current deal terms allow ByteDance to retain control of the TikTok content-recommendation algorithm, while Oracle steps in to handle all of the user data. It’s still not exactly clear how China would overtly ‘kill’ the deal, though Bloomberg said it expects a statement from the Ministry of Commerce would just about do it.

end

As expected, the deal is falling apart so TikTok files a new injunction against the White House

(zerohedge)

TikTok Files New Injunction Against White House Amid Reports Deal Is “Falling Apart”

As Fox Business publishes rumors that the TikTok-Oracle deal is falling apart, TikTok-owner ByteDance has filed a petition for an injunction Wednesday afternoon, asking a federal court in Washington DC to intervene and quash President Trump’s threatened ban of TikTok on national security grounds.

The injunction, filed Wednesday afternoon, comes after a California court shut down Trump’s attempt to ban Tencent’s WeChat just a few days ago. It follows another lawsuit filed by TikTok and its parent back in August targeting the administration and its leaders, including Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.

The Trump Administration set a final deadline of Nov. 12 for the deal between ByteDance, Oracle and Wal-Mart to spin off TikTok into a standalone company. It also set an earlier deadline of Sept. 28, whereby a ‘partial’ shutdown was promised if the deal isn’t well on its way. With that first intermediate deadline coming up on Sunday, BD has apparently decided to move ahead

In the complaint, TikTok lawyers from Covington & Burling argued that Trump’s executive order is unconstitutional, citing violations of First Amendment Rights and due process.

TikTok Requests Injunction on Trump Ban by Zerohedge on Scribd

Meanwhile, Fox Business reports that opposition to the deal is growing in the US, as AG Barr has reportedly expressed skepticism about approving the deal over “national security” concerns.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/IRAN

Russia pledges military sales to Iran and this will happen as soon as the arms embargo ends.  This will bring more nations to Israel’s side for protection against this belligerant nation

(zerohedge)

Russia Pledges Military Sales To Iran The Moment UN Arms Embargo Expires Next Month

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani delivered a fiery speech to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, saying the next US administration will have to “surrender” to Iran’s resilience.

“We are not bargaining chip in U.S. elections and domestic policy,” Rouhani said. “Any U.S. administration after the upcoming elections will have no choice but to surrender to the resilience of the Iranian nation.”

His defiant confidence could be due to Russia on the same day formally pledging military support to Tehran the moment the current 13-year arms embargo on Iran expires Oct.18.

 

Via Reuters

This despite Pompeo attempting to preempt such a scenario when he earlier this month promised to thwart Iran’s purchase of Russian or Chinese tanks. Washington is going it completely alone with its ‘snapback’ sanctions which even European allies have distanced themselves from.

Meanwhile, here’s what Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Interfax news agency on Tuesday:

“New opportunities will emerge in our cooperation with Iran after the special regime imposed by U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231 expires on Oct. 18.”

“The amount of this cooperation and the areas in which it will develop is a separate question,” he added.

Ryabkov added that Russian cooperation with the Islamic Republic has “nothing to do with the unlawful and illegal actions of the U.S. administration, which is trying to intimidate the entire world.”

Russian and Chinese officials, but especially each’s state media, have been mocking Pompeo’s latest suggestions that the US is given authority under the 2015 JCPOA to reimpose all sanctions due to alleged Iran violations, including ramping up uranium enrichment. Of course, the US had long ago pulled out of the deal with Trump admin officials since trashing it in repeat statements.

6.Global Issues

Open letter from hundreds of doctors and health pros urges an end to the lockdowns

(zerohedge)

“No Medical Justification For Emergency Measures” – Open Letter From 100s Of Doctors, Health Pros Urges End To Lockdowns

AIER reports that the following letter has made an impact on public health authorities not only in Belgium but around the world. The text could pertain to any case in which states locked down their citizens rather than allow people freedom and permit medical professionals to bear the primary job of disease mitigation. 

So far it has been signed by 435 medical doctors, 1,439 medically trained health professionals, and 9,901 citizens.

*  *  *

Open letter from medical doctors and health professionals to all belgian authorities and all belgian media.

We, Belgian doctors and health professionals, wish to express our serious concern about the evolution of the situation in the recent months surrounding the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. We call on politicians to be independently and critically informed in the decision-making process and in the compulsory implementation of corona-measures. We ask for an open debate, where all experts are represented without any form of censorship. After the initial panic surrounding covid-19, the objective facts now show a completely different picture – there is no medical justification for any emergency policy anymore.

The current crisis management has become totally disproportionate and causes more damage than it does any good.

We call for an end to all measures and ask for an immediate restoration of our normal democratic governance and legal structures and of all our civil liberties.

‘A cure must not be worse than the problem’ is a thesis that is more relevant than ever in the current situation. We note, however, that the collateral damage now being caused to the population will have a greater impact in the short and long term on all sections of the population than the number of people now being safeguarded from corona.

In our opinion, the current corona measures and the strict penalties for non-compliance with them are contrary to the values formulated by the Belgian Supreme Health Council, which, until recently, as the health authority, has always ensured quality medicine in our country: “Science – Expertise – Quality – Impartiality – Independence – Transparency”.

We believe that the policy has introduced mandatory measures that are not sufficiently scientifically based, unilaterally directed, and that there is not enough space in the media for an open debate in which different views and opinions are heard. In addition, each municipality and province now has the authorisation to add its own measures, whether well-founded or not.

Moreover, the strict repressive policy on corona strongly contrasts with the government’s minimal policy when it comes to disease prevention, strengthening our own immune system through a healthy lifestyle, optimal care with attention for the individual and investment in care personnel.

The concept of health

In 1948, the WHO defined health as follows: ‘Health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or other physical impairment’.

Health, therefore, is a broad concept that goes beyond the physical and also relates to the emotional and social well-being of the individual. Belgium also has a duty, from the point of view of subscribing to fundamental human rights, to include these human rights in its decision-making when it comes to measures taken in the context of public health.

The current global measures taken to combat SARS-CoV-2 violate to a large extent this view of health and human rights. Measures include compulsory wearing of a mask (also in open air and during sporting activities, and in some municipalities even when there are no other people in the vicinity), physical distancing, social isolation, compulsory quarantine for some groups and hygiene measures.

The predicted pandemic with millions of deaths

At the beginning of the pandemic, the measures were understandable and widely supported, even if there were differences in implementation in the countries around us. The WHO originally predicted a pandemic that would claim 3.4% victims, in other words millions of deaths, and a highly contagious virus for which no treatment or vaccine was available.  This would put unprecedented pressure on the intensive care units (ICUs) of our hospitals.

This led to a global alarm situation, never seen in the history of mankind: “flatten the curve” was represented by a lockdown that shut down the entire society and economy and quarantined healthy people. Social distancing became the new normal in anticipation of a rescue vaccine.

The facts about covid-19

Gradually, the alarm bell was sounded from many sources: the objective facts showed a completely different reality.

The course of covid-19 followed the course of a normal wave of infection similar to a flu season. As every year, we see a mix of flu viruses following the curve: first the rhinoviruses, then the influenza A and B viruses, followed by the coronaviruses. There is nothing different from what we normally see.

The use of the non-specific PCR test, which produces many false positives, showed an exponential picture.  This test was rushed through with an emergency procedure and was never seriously self-tested. The creator expressly warned that this test was intended for research and not for diagnostics.

The PCR test works with cycles of amplification of genetic material – a piece of genome is amplified each time. Any contamination (e.g. other viruses, debris from old virus genomes) can possibly result in false positives.

The test does not measure how many viruses are present in the sample. A real viral infection means a massive presence of viruses, the so-called virus load. If someone tests positive, this does not mean that that person is actually clinically infected, is ill or is going to become ill. Koch’s postulate was not fulfilled (“The pure agent found in a patient with complaints can provoke the same complaints in a healthy person”).

Since a positive PCR test does not automatically indicate active infection or infectivity, this does not justify the social measures taken, which are based solely on these tests.

Lockdown.

If we compare the waves of infection in countries with strict lockdown policies to countries that did not impose lockdowns (Sweden, Iceland …), we see similar curves.  So there is no link between the imposed lockdown and the course of the infection. Lockdown has not led to a lower mortality rate.

If we look at the date of application of the imposed lockdowns we see that the lockdowns were set after the peak was already over and the number of cases decreasing. The drop was therefore not the result of the taken measures.

As every year, it seems that climatic conditions (weather, temperature and humidity) and growing immunity are more likely to reduce the wave of infection.

Our immune system

For thousands of years, the human body has been exposed daily to moisture and droplets containing infectious microorganisms (viruses, bacteria and fungi).

The penetration of these microorganisms is prevented by an advanced defence mechanism – the immune system. A strong immune system relies on normal daily exposure to these microbial influences. Overly hygienic measures have a detrimental effect on our immunity. Only people with a weak or faulty immune system should be protected by extensive hygiene or social distancing.

Influenza will re-emerge in the autumn (in combination with covid-19) and a possible decrease in natural resilience may lead to further casualties.

Our immune system consists of two parts: a congenital, non-specific immune system and an adaptive immune system.

The non-specific immune system forms a first barrier: skin, saliva, gastric juice, intestinal mucus, vibratory hair cells, commensal flora, … and prevents the attachment of micro-organisms to tissue.

If they do attach, macrophages can cause the microorganisms to be encapsulated and destroyed.

The adaptive immune system consists of mucosal immunity (IgA antibodies, mainly produced by cells in the intestines and lung epithelium), cellular immunity (T-cell activation), which can be generated in contact with foreign substances or microorganisms, and humoral immunity (IgM and IgG antibodies produced by the B cells).

Recent research shows that both systems are highly entangled.

It appears that most people already have a congenital or general immunity to e.g. influenza and other viruses. This is confirmed by the findings on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, which was quarantined because of a few passengers who died of Covid-19. Most of the passengers were elderly and were in an ideal situation of transmission on the ship. However, 75% did not appear to be infected. So even in this high-risk group, the majority are resistant to the virus.

A study in the journal Cell shows that most people neutralise the coronavirus by mucosal (IgA) and cellular immunity (T-cells), while experiencing few or no symptoms.

Researchers found up to 60% SARS-Cov-2 reactivity with CD4+T cells in a non-infected population, suggesting cross-reactivity with other cold (corona) viruses.

Most people therefore already have a congenital or cross-immunity because they were already in contact with variants of the same virus.

The antibody formation (IgM and IgG) by B-cells only occupies a relatively small part of our immune system. This may explain why, with an antibody percentage of 5-10%, there may be a group immunity anyway. The efficacy of vaccines is assessed precisely on the basis of whether or not we have these antibodies. This is a misrepresentation.

Most people who test positive (PCR) have no complaints. Their immune system is strong enough. Strengthening natural immunity is a much more logical approach. Prevention is an important, insufficiently highlighted pillar: healthy, full-fledged nutrition, exercise in fresh air, without a mask, stress reduction and nourishing emotional and social contacts.

Consequences of social isolation on physical and mental health

Social isolation and economic damage led to an increase in depression, anxiety, suicides, intra-family violence and child abuse.

Studies have shown that the more social and emotional commitments people have, the more resistant they are to viruses. It is much more likely that isolation and quarantine have fatal consequences.

The isolation measures have also led to physical inactivity in many older people due to their being forced to stay indoors. However, sufficient exercise has a positive effect on cognitive functioning, reducing depressive complaints and anxiety and improving physical health, energy levels, well-being and, in general, quality of life.

Fear, persistent stress and loneliness induced by social distancing have a proven negative influence on psychological and general health.

A highly contagious virus with millions of deaths without any treatment?

Mortality turned out to be many times lower than expected and close to that of a normal seasonal flu (0.2%).

The number of registered corona deaths therefore still seems to be overestimated.

There is a difference between death by corona and death with corona. Humans are often carriers of multiple viruses and potentially pathogenic bacteria at the same time. Taking into account the fact that most people who developed serious symptoms suffered from additional pathology, one cannot simply conclude that the corona-infection was the cause of death. This was mostly not taken into account in the statistics.

The most vulnerable groups can be clearly identified. The vast majority of deceased patients were 80 years of age or older. The majority (70%) of the deceased, younger than 70 years, had an underlying disorder, such as cardiovascular suffering, diabetes mellitus, chronic lung disease or obesity. The vast majority of infected persons (>98%) did not or hardly became ill or recovered spontaneously.

Meanwhile, there is an affordable, safe and efficient therapy available for those who do show severe symptoms of disease in the form of HCQ (hydroxychloroquine), zinc and AZT (azithromycin). Rapidly applied this therapy leads to recovery and often prevents hospitalisation. Hardly anyone has to die now.

This effective therapy has been confirmed by the clinical experience of colleagues in the field with impressive results. This contrasts sharply with the theoretical criticism (insufficient substantiation by double-blind studies) which in some countries (e.g. the Netherlands) has even led to a ban on this therapy. A meta-analysis in The Lancet, which could not demonstrate an effect of HCQ, was withdrawn. The primary data sources used proved to be unreliable and 2 out of 3 authors were in conflict of interest. However, most of the guidelines based on this study remained unchanged …

We have serious questions about this state of affairs.

In the US, a group of doctors in the field, who see patients on a daily basis, united in “America’s Frontline Doctors” and gave a press conference which has been watched millions of times.

French Prof Didier Raoult of the Institut d’Infectiologie de Marseille (IHU) also presented this promising combination therapy as early as April. Dutch GP Rob Elens, who cured many patients in his practice with HCQ and zinc, called on colleagues in a petition for freedom of therapy.

The definitive evidence comes from the epidemiological follow-up in Switzerland: mortality rates compared with and without this therapy.

From the distressing media images of ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) where people were suffocating and given artificial respiration in agony, we now know that this was caused by an exaggerated immune response with intravascular coagulation in the pulmonary blood vessels. The administration of blood thinners and dexamethasone and the avoidance of artificial ventilation, which was found to cause additional damage to lung tissue, means that this dreaded complication, too, is virtually not fatal anymore.

It is therefore not a killer virus, but a well-treatable condition.

Propagation 

Spreading occurs by drip infection (only for patients who cough or sneeze) and aerosols in closed, unventilated rooms. Contamination is therefore not possible in the open air. Contact tracing and epidemiological studies show that healthy people (or positively tested asymptomatic carriers) are virtually unable to transmit the virus. Healthy people therefore do not put each other at risk.

Transfer via objects (e.g. money, shopping or shopping trolleys) has not been scientifically proven.

All this seriously calls into question the whole policy of social distancing and compulsory mouth masks for healthy people – there is no scientific basis for this.

Masks

Oral masks belong in contexts where contacts with proven at-risk groups or people with upper respiratory complaints take place, and in a medical context/hospital-retirement home setting. They reduce the risk of droplet infection by sneezing or coughing. Oral masks in healthy individuals are ineffective against the spread of viral infections.

Wearing a mask is not without side effects. Oxygen deficiency (headache, nausea, fatigue, loss of concentration) occurs fairly quickly, an effect similar to altitude sickness. Every day we now see patients complaining of headaches, sinus problems, respiratory problems and hyperventilation due to wearing masks. In addition, the accumulated CO2 leads to a toxic acidification of the organism which affects our immunity. Some experts even warn of an increased transmission of the virus in case of inappropriate use of the mask.

Our Labour Code (Codex 6) refers to a CO2 content (ventilation in workplaces) of 900 ppm, maximum 1200 ppm in special circumstances. After wearing a mask for one minute, this toxic limit is considerably exceeded to values that are three to four times higher than these maximum values. Anyone who wears a mask is therefore in an extreme poorly ventilated room.

Inappropriate use of masks without a comprehensive medical cardio-pulmonary test file is therefore not recommended by recognised safety specialists for workers.

Hospitals have a sterile environment in their operating rooms where staff wear masks and there is precise regulation of humidity / temperature with appropriately monitored oxygen flow to compensate for this, thus meeting strict safety standards.

A second corona wave?

A second wave is now being discussed in Belgium, with a further tightening of the measures as a result. However, closer examination of Sciensano’s figures (latest report of 3 September 2020) shows that, although there has been an increase in the number of infections since mid-July, there was no increase in hospital admissions or deaths at that time. It is therefore not a second wave of corona, but a so-called “case chemistry” due to an increased number of tests.

The number of hospital admissions or deaths showed a shortlasting minimal increase in recent weeks, but in interpreting it, we must take into account the recent heatwave. In addition, the vast majority of the victims are still in the population group >75 years.

This indicates that the proportion of the measures taken in relation to the working population and young people is disproportionate to the intended objectives.

The vast majority of the positively tested “infected” persons are in the age group of the active population, which does not develop any or merely limited symptoms, due to a well-functioning immune system.

So nothing has changed – the peak is over.

Strengthening a prevention policy 

The corona measures form a striking contrast to the minimal policy pursued by the government until now, when it comes to well-founded measures with proven health benefits such as the sugar tax, the ban on (e-)cigarettes and making healthy food, exercise and social support networks financially attractive and widely accessible. It is a missed opportunity for a better prevention policy that could have brought about a change in mentality in all sections of the population with clear results in terms of public health. At present, only 3% of the health care budget goes to prevention. 2

The Hippocratic Oath

As a doctor, we took the Hippocratic Oath:

“I will above all care for my patients, promote their health and alleviate their suffering”.

“I will inform my patients correctly.”

“Even under pressure, I will not use my medical knowledge for practices that are against humanity.”

The current measures force us to act against this oath.

Other health professionals have a similar code.

The ‘primum non nocere’, which every doctor and health professional assumes, is also undermined by the current measures and by the prospect of the possible introduction of a generalised vaccine, which is not subject to extensive prior testing.

Vaccine

Survey studies on influenza vaccinations show that in 10 years we have only succeeded three times in developing a vaccine with an efficiency rate of more than 50%. Vaccinating our elderly appears to be inefficient. Over 75 years of age, the efficacy is almost non-existent.

Due to the continuous natural mutation of viruses, as we also see every year in the case of the influenza virus, a vaccine is at most a temporary solution, which requires new vaccines each time afterwards. An untested vaccine, which is implemented by emergency procedure and for which the manufacturers have already obtained legal immunity from possible harm, raises serious questions. We do not wish to use our patients as guinea pigs.

On a global scale, 700 000 cases of damage or death are expected as a result of the vaccine.

If 95% of people experience Covid-19 virtually symptom-free, the risk of exposure to an untested vaccine is irresponsible.

The role of the media and the official communication plan

Over the past few months, newspaper, radio and TV makers seemed to stand almost uncritically behind the panel of experts and the government, there, where it is precisely the press that should be critical and prevent one-sided governmental communication. This has led to a public communication in our news media, that was more like propaganda than objective reporting.

In our opinion, it is the task of journalism to bring news as objectively and neutrally as possible, aimed at finding the truth and critically controlling power, with dissenting experts also being given a forum in which to express themselves.

This view is supported by the journalistic codes of ethics.

The official story that a lockdown was necessary, that this was the only possible solution, and that everyone stood behind this lockdown, made it difficult for people with a different view, as well as experts, to express a different opinion.

Alternative opinions were ignored or ridiculed. We have not seen open debates in the media, where different views could be expressed.

We were also surprised by the many videos and articles by many scientific experts and authorities, which were and are still being removed from social media. We feel that this does not fit in with a free, democratic constitutional state, all the more so as it leads to tunnel vision. This policy also has a paralysing effect and feeds fear and concern in society. In this context, we reject the intention of censorship of dissidents in the European Union!

The way in which Covid-19 has been portrayed by politicians and the media has not done the situation any good either. War terms were popular and warlike language was not lacking. There has often been mention of a ‘war’ with an ‘invisible enemy’ who has to be ‘defeated’. The use in the media of phrases such as ‘care heroes in the front line’ and ‘corona victims’ has further fuelled fear, as has the idea that we are globally dealing with a ‘killer virus’.

The relentless bombardment with figures, that were unleashed on the population day after day, hour after hour, without interpreting those figures, without comparing them to flu deaths in other years, without comparing them to deaths from other causes, has induced a real psychosis of fear in the population. This is not information, this is manipulation.

We deplore the role of the WHO in this, which has called for the infodemic (i.e. all divergent opinions from the official discourse, including by experts with different views) to be silenced by an unprecedented media censorship.

We urgently call on the media to take their responsibilities here!

We demand an open debate in which all experts are heard.

Emergency law versus Human Rights

The general principle of good governance calls for the proportionality of government decisions to be weighed up in the light of the Higher Legal Standards: any interference by government must comply with the fundamental rights as protected in the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). Interference by public authorities is only permitted in crisis situations. In other words, discretionary decisions must be proportionate to an absolute necessity.

The measures currently taken concern interference in the exercise of, among other things, the right to respect of private and family life, freedom of thought, conscience and religion, freedom of expression and freedom of assembly and association, the right to education, etc., and must therefore comply with fundamental rights as protected by the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

For example, in accordance with Article 8(2) of the ECHR, interference with the right to private and family life is permissible only if the measures are necessary in the interests of national security, public safety, the economic well-being of the country, the protection of public order and the prevention of criminal offences, the protection of health or the protection of the rights and freedoms of others, the regulatory text on which the interference is based must be sufficiently clear, foreseeable and proportionate to the objectives pursued.

The predicted pandemic of millions of deaths seemed to respond to these crisis conditions, leading to the establishment of an emergency government. Now that the objective facts show something completely different, the condition of inability to act otherwise (no time to evaluate thoroughly if there is an emergency) is no longer in place. Covid-19 is not a cold virus, but a well treatable condition with a mortality rate comparable to the seasonal flu. In other words, there is no longer an insurmountable obstacle to public health.

There is no state of emergency.

Immense damage caused by the current policies

An open discussion on corona measures means that, in addition to the years of life gained by corona patients, we must also take into account other factors affecting the health of the entire population. These include damage in the psychosocial domain (increase in depression, anxiety, suicides, intra-family violence and child abuse)16 and economic damage.

If we take this collateral damage into account, the current policy is out of all proportion, the proverbial use of a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

We find it shocking that the government is invoking health as a reason for the emergency law.

As doctors and health professionals, in the face of a virus which, in terms of its harmfulness, mortality and transmissibility, approaches the seasonal influenza, we can only reject these extremely disproportionate measures.

  • We therefore demand an immediate end to all measures.
  • We are questioning the legitimacy of the current advisory experts, who meet behind closed doors.
  • Following on from ACU 2020 https://acu2020.org/nederlandse-versie/ we call for an in-depth examination of the role of the WHO and the possible influence of conflicts of interest in this organisation. It was also at the heart of the fight against the “infodemic”, i.e. the systematic censorship of all dissenting opinions in the media. This is unacceptable for a democratic state governed by the rule of law.

Distribution of this letter

We would like to make a public appeal to our professional associations and fellow carers to give their opinion on the current measures.

We draw attention to and call for an open discussion in which carers can and dare to speak out.

With this open letter, we send out the signal that progress on the same footing does more harm than good, and call on politicians to inform themselves independently and critically about the available evidence – including that from experts with different views, as long as it is based on sound science – when rolling out a policy, with the aim of promoting optimum health.

With concern, hope and in a personal capacity

end

Michael Every..

Rabo: Brexit Was Always Inevitable If Politicians Understood UK Drinking Habits

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Markets were briefly roiled yesterday by the Fed’s Evans being misquoted in suggesting that the Fed might do the complete opposite of what it has just pledged to stick with – not doing anything for years and years and years, almost regardless of what inflation (doesn’t) do for years and years and years.

Further roiling can be expected in the UK as the same government who weeks ago was telling people “Go back to the office or risk losing your job,” is now telling them they will be working from home for the next six months, and that restrictions could get tighter yet. For example, only being able to drink until 9pm not 10pm?

Apart from the obvious “whocouldadnooed?” incompetence, it is stunning that a British government misunderstands its own people so badly. The infamous UK ‘closing time’ was only introduced around a century ago in 1914‘s Defence of the Realm Act to try to ensure that WW1 munitions workers would not be so hung-over that they couldn’t work the next day. Back then, it was 10.30pm and “Last orders!” or “Time, ladies and gentlemen, please!” needed to win the war. Now it’s 10pm, apparently.

The key point (or pint) is that British culture just adapted to drinking the same quantity of alcohol as before, but in a shorter time: sobriety was notably not increased. Hangovers were not decreased. Quite the opposite in fact.

The fact pubs are closing an hour earlier for six months was literally all the UK news was talking about last night: Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s clashing speeches at the UN hardly got a look in. One would think politicians, who are not afraid of the odd drink –they have a subsidised bar, after all– would know this.

(Adrian Edmondson): “One thousand, five hundred and seventy four gin and tonics, please, Monica.”

(Rik Mayall): “LARGE ones.” .

‘Mr. Jolly Lives Next Door’ (1988)

As a co-worker in New York put it yesterday, one would think perhaps the UK is one giant pub. Indeed, perhaps it always was. This certainly isn’t the first time UK politicians have put the ideal ahead of the real and the drinking culture at the heart of UK identity.

Tony Blair –who I suddenly picture with a Campari and soda or a Babycham, trying to fit in at a rough 1980’s northern Working Men’s Club where Bernard Manning is on the week after– massively liberalised the Licensing Laws in the 2000s. Suddenly, pubs could stay open until 1 or 2am or later. “Ah-ha!” cried the Blairites. “Brits will now sup their drinks slowly until the wee hours in outside pavement cafes while discussing arthouse cinema and Sartre, and we will have turned the UK into continental Europe.”

That was the plan.

What actually happened in many locations was a get-‘em-in-let’s-have-another-I-love-you-you-know-did-you-spill-my-pint-vomit-and-blood-and-tears-and-half-a-kebab-down-the-shirt-broken-beer-bottle-in-the-face-where’s-my-taxi-here-come-the-rozzas nightly apocalypse that started at 7pm and went on well until dawn. Good job there wasn’t a war on.

In other words, Brexit was perhaps always inevitable if politicians understood UK drinking habits – though to be fair the Scandinavians, who are capable of some pretty epic drinking of their own, somehow manage to do so without trying to fight everyone in the EU shirtless.

One will certainly need a stiff drink in the next few months, however, if the British government’s claim that 7,000 trucks a day could be stuck in lines at the port of Dover in a “reasonable worst case” if it exits the EU without better customs preparation, and that traders should prepare for January. (The people doing that prep are apparently the same ones doing the UK’s Covid testing and the track and trace system.) That would mean an 80% decline in normal goods flow, and so an 80% decline in imported goods on shelves.

You want a UK pub-style apocalypse all day long? Try all that drinking on an empty stomach – or less of the drinking too if it is imported booze you are after.

In short, both the EU and the UK are negotiating over Brexit trade terms, but the latter seems to, again, be shirtless and shouting “Come and have a go if you think you’re hard enough!” while swaying from side to side.

There are of course other global parallels with well-intended effects to try to corral liquidity: which brings us back to the Fed, the ECB, the BOJ, the BOE, the BOC, the RBA, the RBNZ (who just left rates on hold), the PBOC, etc., etc., and the mother of all hangovers that looms at some point.

(Policeman): “Are you drunk, sir?”

(Adrian Edmondson): “Of course I am, I’m out of my bloody mind. I’ve just spent three thousand quid in there.”

‘Mr Jolly Lives Next Door’ (1988)

What is the crumpled what-you-hope is money you want to be drunkenly fumbling for in your pocket when the bills for all of this come due?

END

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/THE GLOBE

US COVID-19 Cases Near 7 Million As NYC Warns Of New ‘Hot Spots’ In Brooklyn, Queens: Live Updates

Summary:

  • US nears 7 million cases
  • Post-LBW spike continues
  • Trump moves more money to ‘Operation Warp Speed’
  • NYC warns of new hotspots that require “urgent action”
  • Mayor de BLasio furloughs 9k workers
  • France to announce new COVID restrictions
  • Japan on track to approve new COVID drug
  • Indonesia reports another daily record
  • China, Japan to ease travel restrictions on foreigners

* * *

The number of new COVID-19 cases reported in the US on Tuesday accelerated to 39,345 (compared with +37,417 the prior day), as the post-Labor Day Weekend surge (something that BofA analysts insist is being driven almost entirely by increases in testing) continues. Mirroring the increase in cases, deaths increased by 438, compared with just 270 the day before. California saw cases climb 2,630 yesterday (compared with +3,294 for the prior day), while deaths increased by 53, vs. 31 a day ago.

Meanwhile, the US death toll topped 200,000, a level that was once “unfathomable”, according to the AP.

“It’s completely unfathomable that we reached this point,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, a JHU researcher. The AP also noted that 200,000 deaths from the virus is roughly equivalent to one “9/11” per day for 67 days.

The newswire also noted that the milestone comes “six weeks before an election that is certain to be a referendum in part on President Donald Trump’s handling of the crisis.”

Speaking on CNN, Dr. Fauci said “the idea of 200,000 deaths is really very sobering, in some respects stunning.”  President Trump, meanwhile, said last night that “if we didn’t do it properly and do it right, you’d have 2.5 million deaths”, while Democratic candidate Joe Biden took to twitter to proclaim “it didn’t have to be this bad” (then again, Biden also apparently believes the death toll is 200 million, several orders of magnitude higher than reality). Brazil, which essentially did let its outbreak run wild, is in second place with 137,000 deaths, though some critics believe that number underestimates the true death toll.

Looking ahead, the US is roughly 2 days away from becoming the first country to top 7 million confirmed cases: As of Wednesday morning, the US had 6,897,756 cases, and 200,818 confirmed deaths.

In terms of the big US news on Wednesday, NYC’s health department identified a new cluster of cases yesterday in Brooklyn which it warned could be cause for “significant concern”. the hot spots have been traced to four areas in Queens and Brooklyn.

Speaking Wednesday morning, Mayor de Blasio warned these new ‘hot spots’ require “urgent action” and that NYC will increase enforcement of social distancing rules and also bolster its testing efforts to try and stave off the new outbreak. The mayor also annonced a five-day furlough impacting 9,000 employees – a measure that will reportedly save the city $21 million.

And as we noted earlier, JNJ announced its vaccine candidate would be starting Phase 3 trials, making it the fourth candidate to cross that threshold. Yesterday, UK PM Boris Johnson unveiled new measures to slow a resurgence in the UK’s outbreak. The PM also warned that if the measures aren’t effective, that the UK may return to lockdown, even as a team of BofA analysts warned that tighter COVID restrictions will “scar the UK economy further”.

Wisconsin Gov Tony Evers announced new measures late Tuesday declared a public health emergency and extended an order to wear face masks into November.

Finally, the Trump Administration according to Bloomberg is shifting billions of dollars to ‘Operation Warp Speed’, its vaccine effort which relies on throwing money at vaccine projects, and away from testing and masks. The shift shows the administration’s “increasing focus on a medical solution to ease the pandemic,” Bloomberg said. The new money will swell the program to $18 billion from $10 billion.

“Escalating lockdown measures, fading stimulus measures and Brexit uncertainty will push the economy into contraction over the next two quarters,” said BofA’s Robert Wood, chief UK economist.

Here’s a roundup of other important COVID news from Wednesday:

Global cases have hit 31,615,836, while deaths have reached 971,116 (Source: JHU).

Indonesia sets new daily record: The country reported 4,465 new cases, and another 140 deaths. This is only the fourth time Indonesia has topped 4k daily cases, and each instance has come during the last week (Source: Nikkei).

Tokyo reports 59 cases, marking the lowest daily figure in nearly three months. The number was down from 88 on Tuesday and 98 on Monday, and the lowest since June 30, when 54 cases were reported (Source: Nikkei).

Fujifilm announced that its Avigan drug reduced viral loads and symptoms of COVID-19 patients, clearing the last hurdle to emergency approval in Japan, following months of delays. The Phase 3 clinical study of 156 patients showed that those treated with Avigan improved after 11.9 days, versus 14.7 days for a placebo group (Source: Nikkei).

Japan is finally planning to ease access for foreigners in October, though its restrictions will remain pretty stringent: Only 1,000 visitors will be allowed into Japan per day, and initially only those staying for more than 3 months will be allowed in (and they must quarantine for 2 weeks upon arrival) (Source: Nikkei).

India reported 83,347 cases Wednesday, up from 75,083 on Tuesday, bringing its total to nearly 5.65 million. The death toll has jumped by 1,085 to 90,020. The country’s testing capacity now exceeds 1.2 million per day, by far the highest in the world, and more than 66 million tests have been conducted in total (Source: Nikkei).

China reported 10 cases for Sept. 22, up from just six a day earlier. China is also planning to ease entry rules for foreigners starting Sept. 28 (Source: Nikkei).

Australia sees just 15 new cases in its COVID-19 “hot spot” of Victoria, the country’s second-largest state, and home to its second city, Melbourne. Reporting just 15 cases and five deaths, compared with 28 cases and 3 deaths yesterday (Source: Nikkei).

Goldman Sachs, HSBC and others have paused plans to return workers in London after PM Johnson appealed to Britons to work from home (Source: Bloomberg).

Argentina reported a record 470 COVID-19 daily deaths, pushing its total to 13,952, according to the government’s evening report. It’s the second day in a row Argentina has reported a record rise in fatalities. Officials also confirmed 12,027 new cases, bringing the total to 652,174 (Source: Bloomberg).

Finally, Goldman Sachs analysts have come up with the following chart to measure the level of COVID-19 restrictions in place in the US. Right now, it’s swinging back toward more restrictions as states move to curb an expected “fall surge” as college students return home.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

Mounting problems for our Arab oil producers

(Irina Slav)

The Debt Crisis Is Mounting For Oil Economies

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Dubai. Abu Dhabi. Bahrain. And, of course, Saudi Arabia. The two emirates this year issued debt for the first time in years. So did Bahrain. Saudi Arabia stepped up its debt issuance. The moves are typical for the oil-dependent Gulf economies. When the going is good, the money flows. When oil prices crash, they issue debt to keep going until prices recover. This time, there is a problem. Nobody knows if prices will recover.

In August, Abu Dhabi announced plans for what Bloomberg called the longest bond ever issued by a Gulf government. The 50-year debt stood at $5 billion, and its issuance was completed in early September. The bond was oversubscribed as proof of the wealthiest Emirate’s continued good reputation among investors.

Dubai, another emirate, said it was preparing to issue debt for the first time since 2014 at the end of August. Despite the fact the UAE economy is relatively diversified when compared to other Gulf oil producers, it too suffered a hard blow from the latest oil price crash and needed to replenish its reserves urgently. Dubai raised $2 billion on international bond markets last week. Like Abu Dhabi’s bond, Dubai’s was oversubscribed.

Oversubscription is certainly a good sign. It means investors trust that the issuer of the debt is solid. But can the Gulf economies remain solid by issuing bond after bond with oil prices set to recover a lot more slowly than previously expected? Or could this crisis be the final straw that tips them into actual reforms?

No economy, especially not the ones dependent on a single export for most of its budget revenues, can rely on borrowing for long-term survival, let alone growth. In fact, the growth prospects of the Gulf economies are dimming, Reuters’ Davide Barbuscia wrote in a recent analysis of the region. Gulf governments are doing what they have always done: cut public spending and borrow. This time, however, the crisis is like no other before it, and these governments may find themselves in a tight spot while they wait for prices to bounce back.

The problem is that public spending is the main growth driver in the Gulf economies, Barbuscia wrote, quoting the chief economist of Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank. If public spending falls, so will consumption and, therefore, growth. This is already happening and, what’s worse, it is happening across industries.

Earlier this month, IHS Markit said, as quoted by Arabian Business, that non-oil private sector activity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE had fallen in August below 50—the figure that separates growth from contraction. That was after this indicator had registered improvement in the previous month despite still low oil prices.

All Gulf economies—except Qatar—are expected to stay or swing into budget deficits this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. Saudi Arabia, the biggest economy in the region, is seen faring the best, with a deficit of 11.4 percent of GDP, and Oman faring the worst, with a deficit of 16.9 percent. Deficits happen. There is nothing extraordinary about them. What is extraordinary is the lack of wiggle room for the local governments. Investor interest in their new bonds may have been strong, but how likely would it be to remain strong for further debt issues if prices continue hovering around $40 a barrel? This is much below the Gulf economies’ breakeven levels, even the lowest ones. Saudi Arabia’s breakeven alone, according to the IMF, is $76.10 per barrel this year. It could fall to $66 next year, but this will still be too high for comfort with Goldman optimistically projecting Brent to hit $65 a barrel next year.

In what is perhaps a cruel twist, this unprecedented situation is stifling the Gulf economies’ attempts to diversify their economies away from oil. This is incredibly obvious in Saudi Arabia, which had the ambitious goal of becoming a diversified economy by 2030. The goal, however, was to be financed with money from oil sales, and these collapsed this year as the pandemic spread globally. Vision 2030 may well be on its deathbed as the Kingdom, which is the Middle East’s largest producer of oil, grapples with the drop in oil revenues that has promoted a tripling of VAT, a hefty cut in public spending, and the removal of state subsidies for public servants.

Other oil producers in the Gulf are also cutting public spending because this is pretty much the only thing they can cut, along with privileges for citizens, which is unlikely to be a popular move. Spending cuts and loans are the name of the Gulf game amid the crisis. The risk with this game is that if prices do not recover soon, it could turn into a vicious circle or, rather, a vicious spiral that could destabilize the whole region. Maybe these economies need to try a new playbook, one that prescribes actual economic reforms to make them more resilient to oil crises.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1698 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS/CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC// /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.07 DOWN 0.014 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2726   DOWN   0.0013  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3328 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 5.41 POINTS OR 0.17% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 25.66 POINTS OR 0.11%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 2,31%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 25.66 POINTS OR 0.11%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.41 POINTS OR 0.17%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 2.31% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 13.81  POINTS OR 0.06%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1887.15

silver:$23.49-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.676% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.425 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 94.01 UP 3 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.25% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD:+.01%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.23%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.86 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 63 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.50% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.36% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1670  DOWN     .0037 or 37 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.37 UP .311 OR YEN DOWN 31  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2745 UP .0003 POUND UP 3  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 72 basis points to 1.3370

 

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: AT 6.8104    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8184  (YUAN DOWN)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  7.70 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at 0.01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 0.687 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.433 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.24 UP 21  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 69.80  1.20%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 48.58 POINTS OR .39%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 29.42 POINTS 0.62%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 5.60 POINTS or 0.08%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 34.30 POINTS OR 0.18%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 40.06 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 41.76 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    77.85  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.75 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 75 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.50 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  //39.58

 

 

BRENT :  41.45

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.673… DOWN 0

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.422.. DOWN ONE BASIS POINT

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1660 ( DOWN 45   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.38 UP .328 (YEN DOWN 33 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.38 UP 39 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2718 DOWN 25  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 7.70

 

 

the Russian rouble 77.05   DOWN 0.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3382 DOWN 83 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.50%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 525.11 POINTS OR 1.92%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 330.65 POINTS OR 3.02%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.53 CLOSED DOWN .44

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION:0.222%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Dollarnado Slams Stocks, Gold, & Silver As Election Angst Spreads

Anxiety over the election (and any thoughts of fiscal stimulus) continues to rise…

Source: Bloomberg

Quite a serious shift in risk perceptions around the election over the last month and week…

Source: Bloomberg

Which matched with very heavy FedSpeak today with most bearish on growth without more fiscal stimulus (messaging was clear!):

  • Chair Powell continued to wave the fiscal flag carefully at another hearing today, saying that more support was likely to be necessary.
  • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester saying fiscal stimulus was very much needed given the “deep hole” the economy is climbing out of.
  • Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren suggested it’ll take another wave of infections to prompt action, and likely not until next year: “The most difficult part of the recovery is still ahead of us.”
  • Chicago Fed President Evans desperately tried to walk back his more hawkish comments (on hiking rates below 2% inflation) but was ignored.
  • And finally, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, in an interview on Bloomberg Television, emphasized the recovery has so far been stronger than officials predicted a few months ago. He also made clear the road ahead will be difficult and repeated the theme that fiscal support would help.

And tomorrow is another shitshow of FedSpeak…

Is the stock market’s drop a message to Washington? “Get back to work?”

Things could have been a lot uglier as NKE’s surge added 60pts to The Dow.

The Dow dumped 800 points from intraday highs…

 

The timing of the plunge this afternoon syncs up almost too well with margin-calls. Today’s selling accelerated right around 1430ET…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest flush since June…

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P 500 is almost back to unch YTD and Nasdaq is back at almost 2-month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Cyclicals and Defensives were both hit today and both accelerated losses at 1430ET (margin calls)…

Source: Bloomberg

This week has seen a dramatic reversal higher in momo names…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq is now back near its cycle lows, down around 13$ from record highs and the S&P 500 near a 10% correction from its highs…

Today’s tumbles sent the US majors to key technicals – Russell 2000 at its 100 and 200DMA; rest of the majors below their 50DMAs and falling…

TSLA stock was monkeyhammered back below the critical $420 level…

 

NKLA crashed… again…

 

The lack of dovish comments by any of the Fed speakers accelerated the dollar surge to fresh cycle highs again amid the biggest 4-day surge since March (up over 2%)…

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar strength triggered selling in Precious metals – which also were hit with liquidation purges.

Silver futs dropped below $23…

And gold futs below $1900…

Black gold also closed red, unable to hold above $40 despite notable product draws…

 

Bonds ended the day with a massively UNCH move in yields (notice TSY selling once again at the US open to EU close)…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields surged to their highest in 2 months (still notably negative), which weighed on gold…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was also hit around 1430ET…

Source: Bloomberg

Dr.Copper was clubbed like a baby seal back below $3.00… (oddly we did not hear CNBC discussing it as a sage of economic growth today!?)

Today really had the smell of “liquidate everything into dollars”

 

Finally, off-topic for a moment… COVID College Box Score: 48,299 Cases… 2 Hospitalization… 0 Deaths!

And as cases rise (cough colleges cough)… deaths tumble…

Source: Bloomberg

Still think this f**king farce is all about the “science” and not political?

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

Gold & Silver Slammed As USD Surges Above Key Technical Level

The dollar continues to extend its recent gains, reaching near 2-month highs…

Source: Bloomberg

…and breaking above the key 50-day moving-average.

Source: Bloomberg

This has weighed on precious metals with gold futures battered back below $1900…

Gold has broken below its 50DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

And Silver Futs back below…

What is perhaps most notable amid all this volatility is that bond yields have barely budged…

Source: Bloomberg

Which is interesting as real yields surge (dragging down gold) post-Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

It seems all the worries are over? Peter Schiff does not believe so…

Even though at the September FOMC meeting, the Fed indicated it plans to hold interest rates at zero at least through 2023 and it plans to continue quantitative easing at current levels, the markets said, “That’s not enough.”

The markets need more. This bubble is so much bigger than the one that we had back then (2008) that it requires far more air coming from the Fed to keep it from deflating. So, we need more. The Fed needs to talk about negative interest rates. The Fed needs to commit to bigger quantitative easing.”

Of course, in effect, the central bank is calling for more QE as Jerome Powell eggs on Congress to pass additional fiscal stimulus.

Any additional fiscal stimulus automatically requires more monetary stimulus, because where is the government going to get the money for the fiscal stimulus? It’s going to get it from the Fed. That’s what supposedly makes it a stimulus is that the government is going to run larger deficits. It’s going to spend money it doesn’t have.”

But there is concern that if Congress and the White House can’t get some type of fiscal stimulus package passed, the Fed won’t just provide more monetary stimulus on its own.

All that monetary stimulus is going to do, absent the fiscal stimulus, is pump up the asset markets – the stock market, the real estate market, or bond market. It’s not going to do anything for the real economy. I think the Fed believes that what will help the real economy is the fiscal stimulus. Now, the Fed is wrong. That’s not going to help the real economy either.”

With all of the political turmoil, ratcheted up by the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the possibility of getting a fiscal stimulus deal done appears less likely.

Peter said he thinks the stock market will continue to be shaky and the sell-off could even gain momentum unless we get a concrete commitment to more monetary stimulus from the Fed, which may require something coming from Congress in terms of fiscal stimulus.

Which again, doesn’t stimulate the economy. But it will stimulate the markets. It will provide the addicts on Wall Street the drug they need in order to bid stock prices higher.”

But Peter said he thinks even if Congress can’t get a stimulus deal done, the Fed will ultimately act on its own.

Because the Fed will see the weakness in the market as a sign that the economy is going to weaken because it realizes that it is the wealth effect that is powering whatever recovery it thinks is in progress. And so if that is in jeopardy, I think the Fed will act unilaterally.”

No matter how you get it – more stimulus is bullish for gold and silver in the long-term. This recent dip could be a nice buying opportunity

 

end.

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

PMI service is 70% of GDP:  It disappoints in September

(zerohedge)

US Services PMI Disappoints In September, “Risk Tilted To Downside In Coming Months”

Following a mixed picture from European PMIs (EU Composite lower, manufacturing gains as services slump back into contraction), analysts were expecting a similar picture in the US for preliminary September data, with Market PMI Manufacturing accelerating and Services slowing, and that is what printed.

  • Markit US Manufacturing 53.5 vs 53.5 exp vs 53.1 prior – 20-month high
  • Market US Services 54.6 vs 54.7 exp vs 55.0 prior – 2 month low

Notably this is happening as US Macro data is rolling over aggressively…

Source: Bloomberg

The US Composite PMI remains above Europe’s but both are starting to lag as Services’ hope starts to fade…

Source: Bloomberg

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

US businesses reported a solid end to the third quarter, with demand growing at a steepening rate to fuel a further recovery of output and employment.

“The survey data therefore add to signs that the economy will have enjoyed a solid rebound in the third quarter after the second quarter slump.

The question now turns to whether the economy’s strong performance can be sustained into the fourth quarter. Covid-19 infection rates remain a major concern and social distancing measures continue to act as a dampener on the overall pace of expansion, notably in consumer-facing services. Uncertainty regarding the presidential election has also intensified, cooling business optimism about the year ahead. Risks therefore seem tilted to the downside for the coming months, as businesses await clarity with respect to both the path of the pandemic and the election.”

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

This is close to bribery as you can get:

(zerohedge_

Matt Gaetz Calls On Florida AG To Investigate Mike Bloomberg ‘For Potentially Engaging In Bribery And Vote Buying”

Update (1815ET): Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has called on the state’s Attorney General to investigate Bloomberg for “Potentially Engaging In Bribery And Vote Buying.”

* * *

Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg – who has committed at least $100 million in Florida towards electing Joe Biden, has raised another $16 million to pay the court fines and fees of nearly 32,000 Black and Hispanic felons so that they can vote in the November election.

The money will go towards a program organized by the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition. By state law, former prisoners who are already registered to vote in Florida are barred from participating in the election if they have outstanding legal debts to the state, according to the Washington Post.

Bloomberg has raised money from both individuals and foundations, according to his advisers. The billionaire views the donations as a more cost-effective way of adding Democratic voters in Florida than investing money to persuade non-felons to change their vote, according to a memo.

“We have identified a significant vote share that requires a nominal investment,” it reads. “The data shows that in Florida, Black voters are a unique universe unlike any other voting bloc, where the Democratic support rate tends to be 90%-95%.

The memo also notes that Biden is currently polling worse among Cuban American voters than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, while other Hispanic groups are in favor of Biden by a margin of 3 to 1.

Florida voters passed a statewide constitutional amendment in 2018 that gave former felons, except those convicted of murder or felony sexual offenses, the opportunity to vote in upcoming elections. The Republican-controlled legislature subsequently passed, and the Republican governor signed, a law that conditioned their return to the voting rolls on the payment of all fees, fines and restitution that were part of their sentence.

The Republican effort is expected to limit the political benefit to Democrats of the constitutional change, which passed by ballot initiative with 65 percent support. A study by the University of Florida found that nearly 775,000 former felons still owed money related to their convictions and would be barred from the voting booth by the law. The vast majority are too poor to pay their outstanding debts, according to evidence presented in court documents challenging the law. –Washington Post

Beyond Bloomberg, several philanthropic groups have poured money into paying off debts owed by felons – including a nonprofit founded by LeBron James. Bloomberg’s effort, meanwhile, is “narrowly focused only on Black and Hispanic voters” whose debts are less than $1,500.

“Mike wanted to get this done for two reasons,” a Bloomberg adviser told the Post. “One, because it’s the right thing to do for the democracy. And two, because it immediately activates tens of thousands of voters who are predisposed to vote for Joe Biden.”

The Bloomberg memo pointed out that the 31,790 targeted voters, including 25,548 who are Black, are nearly equivalent to the margin by which Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis won election in 2018, and about three times as big as the margin that elected Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) that same year.

It said Florida voters have largely already made up their minds about the November election, leaving “only a small margin of voters that are targets for persuasion.” –Washington Post

“We know to win Florida we will need to persuade, motivate and add new votes to the Biden column,” reads the document. “This means we need to explore all avenues for finding the needed votes when so many votes are already determined.”

end

Eighty per cent of Americans state that post pandemic food inflation is impacting their budgets

(zerohedge)

80% Of Americans Say Post-Pandemic Food Inflation Is Impacting Their Budgets

With its Beige Book, the Federal Reserve and its regional banks frequently gauge business owners’ subjective impressions of the overall economy. Recently, these reports have shown signs of permanent economic scarring, though the September report emphasized a different angle: That the economic revival – while not a straightforward “V” – was unfolding more rapidly than they had anticipated.

Unfortunately, the central bank doesn’t focus on surveying consumers with as much diligence. This could be one reason why some economists have slammed the central bank for being “out of touch”. Not only does the central bank welcome inflation (just not too much of it), it relies on gauges of the phenomenon that have – falsely – suggested that consumer prices aren’t rising. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE numbers, exclude medical bills and other costs.

However, after years of “low” inflation, the virus has pushed prices of food and consumer goods higher. That’s why Powell tweaked the central bank’s inflation target to create more room for inflation to overheat – since that’s what it seems to be doing.

While central bankers walk around with their heads in the clouds, a team at C+R Research has surveyed more than 2,000 American consumers to find out how they have “adjusted” to these higher prices, which have come amid a surge in unemployment. Their findings aren’t all that surprising: 85% of consumers said that their budgets had been impacted by having to pay more for groceries. Milk, eggs and meat are the top staples that Americans are paying more for.

But food isn’t the only source of rising prices: household goods like toilet paper and cleaning products have seen prices soar with the surge in demand. 75% of respondents said that these increases had impacted them.

What might be surprising for some is that  more than 75% of Americans are still having trouble finding cleaning products and certain food products that were readily available before the pandemic.

Finally, with millions of professionals (at least, those who still have jobs) still working from home, more than 2/3rds of respondents said they have been buying fewer hair-care products since the start of the pandemic, while 61% of people say they’ve been spending less on deodorant.

With nearly 90% of respondents saying they’re worried that prices for groceries will continue to climb, here’s what weekly grocery budgets are looking like since the pandemic.

As shoppers try to navigate life during hard economic times, more than half say they’re spending less on food, or have changed their diet, while more than 70% of respondents say they have been “stress eating” more often.

Somebody should probably tell them to relax; don’t they know interest rates will be anchored to the zero-bound until 2023?

END
The House passes the funding bill averting a government shutdown. It is now up to the Senate to approve.  They added Trump’s farm aid but also nutrition supplements to the poor
(zerohedge)

House Passes Funding Bill, Averting Government Shutdown

After several days of terse negotiations, on Tuesday evening House Democrats readers a deal with Republicans on a stopgap funding bill to keep the government operating after restarting talks over disputed farm assistance. Shortly after, just after 8pm ET, lawmakers passed the bill in a bipartisan vote of 359-57.

With government funding set to run out on Sept. 30, leaders of both parties had been working on legislation to continue funding most programs at current levels and thus avoid a government shutdown in the middle of a pandemic, and with the Nov. 3 elections fast approaching.

House Democrats announced Monday they had filed the stopgap funding legislation to last until Dec. 11, which however angered Republicans by leaving out some farm money that Trump wanted.  The Monday version did not include the $21.1 billion the White House sought to replenish the Commodity Credit Corporation, a program to stabilize farm incomes, because Democrats considered it a blank check for political favors.

Republicans had been furious at the omission. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Pelosi’s resistance to including farm aid in the bill had been “basically a message to farm country to drop dead.”

In response House Speaker Nancy Pelosi issued a subsequent statement announcing a deal with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Republicans on the continuing resolution, or CR, which included the farm relief as well as nutritional assistance sought by Democrats. Trump had promised more farm aid last week during a political rally in Wisconsin, a key battleground state in the Nov. 3 elections.

The agreement struck between the two parties adds $8 billion in nutrition assistance programs and allows for the farm aid distributed through the CCC to continue, but with measures sought by Democrats to prohibit payments to fossil fuel refiners and importers.

We have reached an agreement with Republicans on the CR to add nearly $8 billion in desperately needed nutrition assistance for hungry schoolchildren and families,” Pelosi said in a statement, adding that “we also increase accountability in the Commodity Credit Corporation, preventing funds for farmers from being misused for a Big Oil bailout.”

Separately, the funding deal prohibits financial aid to oil refiners that have been denied waivers from having to comply with biofuel mandates. The bill  prohibits the Commodity Credit Corporation or the Department of Agriculture from “providing payments or otherwise supporting fossil fuel refiners and importers.” This comes after Trump administration officials had been developing a plan to help small refiners who may have suffered financial damage after the EPA denied waivers they sought to avoid complying renewable fuel standard requirements

The rest of the bill generally continues current spending levels. It would give lawmakers more time to work out spending through September 2021, including budgets for military operations, healthcare, national parks, space programs, and airport and border security.

The Senate is likely to take up the bill – which will now set up a clash over government funding in the lame-duck session after the November elections – as soon as this week.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Powell Testimony Highlights

  • Economy is improving but recovery is ‘highly uncertain’
  • Risk of ‘recessionary dynamics’ without more fiscal stimulus, which is likely needed
  • Economy will start to feel the negative effects of fiscal aid termination
  • Powell did his now regular virtue signaling: Blacks, Latinos hardest hit by virus
  • ‘Not more we can do’ to boost lending via Fed facilities’
  • Not much interest in borrowing from Fed facilities below $1m
  • Need to reopen economy in a sustainable way and control the virus
  • The US economy has proved to be resilient

Mnuchin said the next fiscal stimulus should target kids and jobs.

Chicago Fed President Evans pleaded for federal largesse for cities and states.  He also said the recession will worsen without more fiscal stimulus.  Evans, though, admitted that he is surprised that the economy has been able to return to about 90% of its pre-Covid state.

Trump and Barr are showing the traditionally squishy and craven GOP ruling class how to fight back at the Dems and MSM.  A reason that the MSM, Dems and RINOs have seething hate for Trump is DJT fights like a Democrat and displays utter contempt for the MSM.

@CBS_Herridge: @LindseyGrahamSC says Republicans “got the votes to confirm” SCOTUS nominee before election” + “We are going to move forward in the committee.  We’re going to report the nomination out of committee to the floor of the United States Senate, so we can vote before the election. That’s the constitutional process.  After Kavanaugh everything changed with me.  They’re not going to intimidate me, Mitch McConnell or anybody else.”

WaPo: Romney backs filling Ginsburg’s seat this year, clearing way for Trump to appoint third justice to Supreme Court

@realDonaldTrump: I will be announcing my Supreme Court Nominee on Saturday, at the White House! Exact time TBA.

OAN’s @ChanelRion: White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows: SCOTUS nominee announcement to be made by Saturday – Precedent for quick timeline in SCOTUS nomination process; confident nominee can be voted in over next few weeks

The media is already attacking Amy Coney Barrett over her religion and her religious beliefs.

 

@ReutersPolitics: Handmaid’s Tale? U.S. Supreme Court candidate’s religious community under scrutiny http://reut.rs/300Il11

The Attacks on Judge Barrett Have Already Started

The attacks over the last few days have been steeped in anti-Catholicism, other types of bigotry, and lazy error… And all over Twitter, liberals are using the same distorted quotations Senator Feinstein’s office used against Barrett three years ago, when she was going through the confirmation hearings for the appeals court where she now sits…  https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-attacks-on-judge-barrett-have-already-started/

Barrett’s Front-Runner Supreme Court Status Renews Faith Debate

The Constitution states no religious test shall ever be required as a qualification to any office or public trust.  Both Justices Louis Brandeis in 1916 and Felix Frankfurter in 1939 received some anti-Semitic tinged questions from the Senate during their confirmation hearings, queries about whether they could be loyal to the country, Nunziata said. Catholic justices have also faced similar questions in the past. In 1957, at his Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing, William Brennan was asked to explain how he would reconcile his duties as a judge with his faith

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/barretts-front-runner-supreme-court-status-renews-faith-debate

We are going to discover a lot of true colors in regard to the advocacy for women, religious tolerance and Trump Derangement Syndrome in coming weeks.

Feinstein Caught On Camera Bullying Murkowski

Feinstein cornered Murkowski – literally physically.

    On his Monday show Rush talked about a very interesting photograph of California Democrat Senator Diane Feinstein talking in a Senate corridor with Alaska Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski…It shows Feinstein, decidedly intense, standing almost nose-to-nose with the Alaska Republican, with her left hand pushed against the wall next to Murkowski’s head…

https://thejeffreylord.com/feinstein-caught-on-camera-bullying-murkowski/

Historian Michael Beschloss @BeschlossDC: “Dante once said that the hottest places in hell are reserved for those who in a period of moral crisis maintain their neutrality,” said President Kennedy in 1963.

Law Prof. Robert P. George @McCormickProf: Confirmation hearings for S.Ct. nominees aren’t constitutionally required. They began in 1916. We’ve not gotten better justices because of them. They often degenerate into partisan brawls and forums for character assassination. Senators can obtain the info they need without them.

@ArthurSchwartz: Asked if voters have a right to know before the election who he would nominate to SCOTUS, Biden says, “No, they don’t; but they will if I’m elected…” https://t.co/VkXUnjWzBM

Biden on if He Supports Radical Idea of Packing Supreme Court: ‘I’m Not Going to Answer That Question’   https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-on-if-he-supports-radical-idea-of-packing-supreme-court-im-not-going-to-answer-that-question

After another shaky day on Monday in Manitowoc, Wisconsin, the Biden Campaign called yet another ‘lid’ on Joe (no appearances, no media access) with less than 6 weeks in the campaign.

Seattle pays ex-pimp $150,000 to offer ‘alternatives to policing’ [Not a parody!] https://t.co/Xn5rzZ5QMZ

@JamesTodaroMD: US college campus deaths related to alcohol poisoning: 1,800 annually

US college student deaths from COVID-19: Less than 10 (zero in the 2020/2021 school year)

Actress and “Defund the Police” activist Alyssa Milano called 911 from her California home over the weekend, sparking a massive emergency response — over what turned out to be a teen shooting at squirrels with an air gun…  https://pagesix.com/2020/09/22/alyssa-milano-calls-cops-on-teen-shooting-airgun-at-squirrels/

@RedWingGrips: Woman had a TDS meltdown over a MAGA street corner rally then proceeded to hit the vehicle in front of her while police were behind her https://twitter.com/RedWingGrips/status/1308444868595912705

@ScottSloofman: TantrumSchumer Blocks Bipartisan Hearing on Counterintelligence Over SCOTUS Objections   https://twitter.com/ScottSloofman/status/1308509240072470531

Chuckie Schumer held a presser to bloviate over RBG’s replacement; it didn’t go well.

@SteveGuest: Democrat Sen. Chuck Schumer grilled by reporters on the Supreme Court: “you’ve switched positions”   https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1308490952554754051

@SteveGuest: Democrat Sen. Chuck Schumer is confronted [by reporters] on the Supreme Court: “President Trump won the election, Senate Republicans won the majority”

https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1308492572076187649

@tomselliott: Hecklers disrupt @SenSchumer presser on RBG’s replacement, clearly annoying the N.Y. senator   https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1308481498568417280

U.S. warns ‘foreign actors’ aim to sow doubts over mail-in voting   http://reut.rs/2ZYfRVA

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

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