SEPT 30

GOLD:$1890.40 UP  $6.80   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$23.39 DOWN  $0.96   London spot price ( cash market)

 

 

your data…

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

i)Gold : $1897.50  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $24.17//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

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CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

OCT GOLD:  1893.40  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /: $$3.0 CONTANGO// ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO

 

 

DEC. GOLD  $1898.40   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $8.00/ CONTANGO   ( $2.00 ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO) //allows for exch. for physical to be issued at lower cost.

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER NOV COMEX CLOSE;   $23.50…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 11 CENTS CONTANGO/ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO//)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $23.60  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       :   21  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO (   9 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

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COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today: 2018/6442

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,894.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/29/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 10/01/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 277
099 H DB AG 185
104 C MIZUHO 39
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 296
132 C SG AMERICAS 37
135 H RAND 2
323 C HSBC 1
323 H HSBC 4366
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 82
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 85
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 941
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 384
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 7
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 35 313
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 313
661 C JP MORGAN 695 1714
661 H JP MORGAN 304
690 C ABN AMRO 311
709 C BARCLAYS 1 1186
709 H BARCLAYS 1095
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 12
737 C ADVANTAGE 4
800 C MAREX SPEC 10 83

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 09/29/2020 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 09/29/2020
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 21:26:03
880 C CITIGROUP 55
905 C ADM 10 41
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 6,442 6,442
MONTH TO DATE: 6,442

 

issued:  695

GOLDMAN SACHS STOPPED 277 CONTRACTS.

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT. CONTRACT: 6442 NOTICE(S) FOR 644200 OZ  (20.037 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  6442 NOTICES FOR 644200 OZ  (20.037 tonnes) 

 

 

SILVER//OCTOBER CONTRACT

 

 

1026 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,130,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1026 for 5.130 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $10,722 DOWN 121 DOLLARS 

 

 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:  $10,720  DOWN 119 DOLLARS .

 

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

 

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

 

GLD: 1,268.89 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER DOWN 96 CENTS  TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

A WITHDRAWAL OF 186,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.

 

SLV: 550.605  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

 

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG 2817 CONTRACTS FROM 154,491 UP TO 157,308, AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.86 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE  GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO CONSIDERABLE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING..  COUPLED AGAINST A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A VERY STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN SILVER OZ   AT THE COMEX FOR OCT.  WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4302 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A TINY  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  1485, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  OCT 0;  DEC:  1485, MARCH  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1485 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

 

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.520 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE $0.86) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (4314 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE GAIN IN OI WAS DUE TO BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A VERY STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN SILVER OZ   FOR OCTOBER, 3) STRONG COMEX GAIN AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

15,672 CONTRACTS (FOR 21 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 15,672 CONTRACTS) OR 78.360 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 746 CONTRACTS OR 3.730 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT: 78.360 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 11.19% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,457.05 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                78.360 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2828, WITH OUR  $0.86 RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAY.…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1485 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

 

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 4302 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $0.86 RISE IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 1485 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 2,817 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.86 RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $24.35 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.772 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 110% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW AUGUST  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1026 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,130000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 86.470 million oz//AUGUST 6.475 MILLION OZ//SEPT. 55.400 MILLION OZ// OCTOBER: 8.520 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY 377 CONTRACTS TO 562,396 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE TINY SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR VERY STRONG GAIN IN PRICE  OF $19.10 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY. WE HAVE NOW CONCLUDED OUR  SPREADER LIQUIDATION WITH TODAY’S READING. THE BIG STORY IS THE HUGE OI THAT IS NOW STANDING FOR DELIVERY:  30,524 CONTRACTS OR 94.95 TONNES..//WE PROBABLY HAD SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING  ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $19.10. 

 

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 5    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  81//

 

 

WE HAD A SMALL GAIN 2651 CONTRACTS  (8.245 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. IF YOU INCLUDED THE 94.95 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING, THE TOTAL GAIN IN TONNAGE IS 103.20 TONNES 

 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2274 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . OCT: 0 DEC: 2274; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2274.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 562,396. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2651 CONTRACTS: 377 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2274 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 2651 CONTRACTS OR 8.245 TONNES.

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2274) ACCOMPANYING THE TINY SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (377 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2651 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)A HUGE  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT OCT. MONTH,994.95 TONNES)  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ;4) TINY COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND 6) CONCLUSION OF OUR SPREADER LIQUIDATION.../  AND  ...ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY//$19.10.

 

 

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

 

 

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS//OUTLINE

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON OCT  1)

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 57,386, CONTRACTS OR 5,738,600 oz OR 178,49 TONNES (21 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2732 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 21 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 178.49 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 178.49/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.020% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,563,03  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE EXTREMELY LOW)

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       178.49 TONNES (EFP’s AGAIN RISING DUE TO BACKWARDATION/LOWER FUTURE PREMIUMS//THUS LESS COST TO CARRY)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2817 CONTRACTS FROM 154,491, UP TO 157,308 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1)   SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A HUGE  INITIAL STANDING  FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR OCT., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 1485 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 OCT: 0 AND DEC. 1485 AND MARCH:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1485 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 2651 CONTRACTS TO THE 1485 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 4302 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 21.51 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.86 RISE IN PRICE///

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.31 POINTS OR 0.20%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 183.52 POINTS OR 0.79%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 359.98 POINTS OR 1.50%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.11%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8100 /Oil DOWN TO 3903 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.10 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8100 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8151 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

 

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY BY A TINY 377 CONTRACTS TO 562,396 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS TINY COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR VERY STRONG RISE OF $19.10 IN GOLD PRICING /TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2274 CONTRACTS),.AND WE ALSO HAD OUR CONCLUDING  SPREADER LIQUIDATION WITH MOST OF THE SPREADERS LEAVING ON THURSDAY’S RAID.    WE  ALSO PROBABLY HAD  1)  SOME CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING,  2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//OCT. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2927 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

 

 

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 5    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest LOWERS TO 81

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1201 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:   OCT: 0  DEC 2274; FEB// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2274  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 2651 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2274 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A TINY SIZED 377 COMEX CONTRACTS.  WITH TODAY’S READING WE ARE FINISHED OUR SPREADER LIQUIDATION EXERCISE. THE BIG NEWS IS THE POWERFUL LEVEL OF OCTOBER 2020 CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY. ( 30,524 CONTRACTS).

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $19.10).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED   8.245 TONNES,…

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 2651, CONTRACTS OR 265100 OZ OR 8.245 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  562,396 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 56.24 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1749 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1749/2200 OR 79.51% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 241,277 contracts// volume poor/

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  228,076 contracts//  volume: POOR //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

SEPT 30 /2020

SEPT. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT GOLD

 

 

 

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
26,538.85 oz
HSBC
Loomis
includes 500 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

7989.82

OZ

HSBC

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
6442 notice(s)
 644,200 OZ
(20.037 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
24082 contracts
(2408,200 oz)
74.905 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6442 notices
644,200 OZ
20.037 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

 

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into HSBC:  7989.82 oz

 

 

 

total customer deposit:  7989.82     oz

 

 

 

we had 2 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of Brinks: 10,463.35 oz

ii) Out of Loomis:  16,075.500 oz   500 kilobars.

 

total withdrawals; 26,538.85  oz

 

 

 

We had 1  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 1 //  customer into the dealer

 

 

i) Scotia:  86,252.19 oz

 

 

 

 

The front month of OCT registered a total of 30524 contracts for a LOSS of 4043 contracts.  Thus by definition we will have the following initially stand for metal in this generally weak delivery month of October:  

30,524 x 100 oz  =  3,052,400 oz or 94.94 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

November gained 59 contracts to stand at 780.

The big December contract GAINED 3899 contracts UP to 441,181 contracts..

THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH OI STANDING FOR OCTOBER (94.95 tonnes). GENERALLY OCTOBER IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY(GOLDMAN SACHS) JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE ON OCTOBER FOR PHYSICAL METAL. GOLDMAN SACHS ONE OF THE LEADERS OF THE NEW LONDON LME EXCHANGE NEEDS THE GOLD INVENTORY FOR LIQUIDITY AND INITIAL CONTRIBUTION WITH OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MONTH AND OTHER MONTHS IS THAT THIS GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER WILL LEAVE THE COMEX AND HEAD FOR LONDON.

 

 

 

We had  6442 notices filed today for  644,200 oz OR 20.037 TONNES.

This is very low compared to what is initially standing. The comex does not have the deliverable gold so far that is necessary to satisfy the longs (Goldman Sachs) that is standing for metal.

 

FOR THE OCT 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 6442  contract(s) of which 304  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 714 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and0277 notices received by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6442) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT (30,524 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (6442 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,052,400 OZ OR 94.95 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (6442, x 100 oz +30,524 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (6442) x 100 oz which equals 3,052,400 oz standing OR 94.95 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a OCT delivery month (a poor active delivery month).

 

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

592,648.822 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  18.433 TONNES ( A HUGE INCREASE FROM 10.6)

 

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

277,934.09 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.644 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               19.017 tonnes

51,084.609 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.588 tonnes jpm

total pledged gold:  1,574,454.119 oz                                     48.97 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 471.05 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 94.95 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  16,718,763.723 oz or 520.02 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,574,454.119 oz or 48.97 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,144,309.0  (471,05 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,144,309.0 (471.05 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,183,146.679 oz (621.01 tonnes) HUGE DROP

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  36,901,910.402 oz 1,147.80 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1021.50 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 

 

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

 

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

SEPT 30/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

INITIAL STANDINGS

OCT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 992.80 oz
DELAWARE

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,184,382.400 oz
JPMorgan
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
1026
CONTRACT(S)
(5,130,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
678 contracts
 3,390,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1026 contracts

5,130,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposits into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil      oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 2 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i)into JPMorgan:  595,378.800 oz

 

ii) Into Scotia: 589,003.600 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan now has 184.9 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.28% of all official comex silver. (184.9 million/375.2 million

 

total customer deposits today:  1,184,382.400   oz

we had 1 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of DELAWARE  992.800 oz

total withdrawals; 992.800    oz

We had 2 adjustments/ customer to dealer

 

i) CNT  1,324,664.300 oz

ii) Manfra: 34,781.400  oz

 

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 139.813 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  375.203 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

October had an initial 1704 notices outstanding and so by definition the total no of silver oz initially standing is as follows:

1704 contracts x 5000 oz =   8,520,000 oz

 

November saw a gain of 63 notices up to 273 contracts.

December saw a gain of 2455 contracts up to 133,808 contracts.

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2020. contract month is represented by 1026 contract(s) FOR 5,130,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1026 x 5,000 oz = 5,130,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT( 1704) and the number of notices served upon today 1026x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 1,026 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT  (1704)- number of notices served upon today (1026) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month .equals 8,520,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH.

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 85,473 CONTRACTS // volume  very good//

 

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY   83,860  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME// strong/

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 83,860 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.419 billion  OZ 59.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO- 2.25% ((SEPT 30/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO -0.60% to NAV:   (SEPT 30/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/2.25%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.03 TRADING 18.34///NEGATIVE 3.62

END

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 30//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.10//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

 

/SEPT 28//WITH GOLD UP $14.30 DOLLARS: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 25//WITH GOLD DOWN 410.80 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1266.84 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14TONNES.

SEPT 23//WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 11.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY, A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 18.98 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTER THE GLD///// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.62TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.94 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1259.64TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $10.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT: 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.05 TODAY: A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 15//WITH GOLD UP $2.25 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .43 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD  DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.00 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.92 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 ON THIS 2ND DAY OF A 3 DAY RAID:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 TODAY, WE HAVE 2 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF .87 TONNES AND.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 31//WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES/

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $38.20 TODAY, WE SURPRISINGLY HAD A .59 TONNE WITHDRAWAL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD DOWN 17.50 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1252.09 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $26.70  TODAY/  WE  HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD//RESTS AT 1248.85 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY, WE  HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.20 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.38 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

SEPT 30/ GLD INVENTORY 1268.89 tonnes*

LAST;  910 TRADING DAYS:   +329.05 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 810 TRADING DAYS://+507.98  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 96 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 186,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.605 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER UP 86 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.791 MILLILON OZ//

 

SEPT 28//WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.769 MILLION OZ CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.791 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 TRANSACTIONS: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.28 MILION OZ FROM THE SLV AND A DEPOSIT OF 1.861 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.022 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23//WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.048 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.141 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.491 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.43 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.862 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.350MILLION OZ//

SEPT 18. WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.537 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.793 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY:  HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS A) 1.675 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER B) 0.931 MILLION OZ/ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.956 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.63 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.169 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 15  CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.631 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.258 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.430 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 2.WITH SILVER DOWN $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.365 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY REST AT 571.688 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 1//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.982 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.652 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.071 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS  TODAY// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.65 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.074 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24//WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A NO CHANGES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843  MILLION OZ//

 

SEPT 30.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

550.791 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Morgan admits rigging gold, silver, Treasury futures and will pay $920 million fine

 Section: 

JPMorgan Admits Spoofing by 15 Traders, Two Desks in Record Deal

By Matt Robinson and Tom Schoenberg
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, September 29, 2020

JPMorgan Chase & Co. today admitted wrongdoing and agreed to pay more than $920 million to resolve U.S. authorities’ claims of market manipulation involving two of the bank’s trading desks, the largest sanction ever tied to the illegal practice known as spoofing.

Over eight years 15 traders at the biggest U.S. bank caused losses of more than $300 million to other participants in precious metals and Treasury markets, according to court filings made today. JPMorgan admitted responsibility for the traders’ actions.

The Justice Department filed two counts of wire fraud against the bank’s parent company but agreed to defer prosecution related to the charges, under a three-year deal that requires the bank to report its remediation and compliance efforts to the government.

 

The New York-based lender will pay the biggest monetary penalty ever imposed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, including a $436.4 million fine, $311.7 million in restitution, and more than $172 million in disgorgement, according to a CFTC statement:

https://cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8260-20

The CFTC said its order will recognize and offset restitution and disgorgement payments made to the Department of Justice and Securities and Exchange Commission.

Allegations of spoofing on the bank’s precious metals desk emerged more than a year ago in charges against several traders on the desk. But the settlement announced today also includes new allegations about spoofing by traders on the bank’s Treasuries desk.

The deal faults the bank for nearly eight years of manipulating prices of Treasury contracts, as well as trading in notes and bonds in the secondary market, that caused $106 million in losses. The government said five now-former JPMorgan traders executed thousands of deceptive trades. None of those traders has been charged publicly.

The accord also ends the criminal investigation of the bank that led to a half dozen employees being charged for allegedly rigging the price of gold and silver futures from 2008 to 2016. Two have entered guilty pleas, and three traders and a former JPMorgan salesman are awaiting trial. In all, according to the settlement deal, 10 JPMorgan traders caused losses of $206 million to other parties in the market. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-29/jpmorgan-pays-920-mil…

END

Hemke states that market rigging did not end with the criminal conviction: it continues and today with options expiry it is quite evident

(zerohedge)

Hemke: Metals market rigging didn’t end today; Grandich recalls two lying shills

 Section: 

4:06p ET Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Don’t think for a moment, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes today at Sprott Money, that manipulation and corruption in the monetary metals markets will stop with JPMorganChase’s admission of rigging them and the bank’s paying a $920 million fine.

Market rigging, Hemke writes, remains too easy and profitable and the market regulators too corrupt or incompetent to stop it. Worse, Hemke adds, monetary metals mining companies accept rigging even when it’s done by their own banks. He hopes to motivate the miners to start playing for their own team.

… 

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Bullion Bank Criminal Corruption” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

 

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Bullion-Bank-Criminal-Corruption-Craig-…

Meanwhile GATA’s old friend, market analyst Peter Grandich, recalls a couple of the “analysts” who were tools of the manipulation, denying it and mocking those who complained about it. Grandich’s comments are posted at Twitter here:

https://twitter.com/PeterGrandich/status/1311018646240743425

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

Gold trading on options expiry:

Gold Pumped-n-Dumped As Stocks Melt-Up To Overnight Debate Highs

So… with futures down hard overnight, talking heads proudly proclaimed that this must mean Biden won the debate. So with stocks now surging to overnight highs, does that mean Trump won?

 

Some are claiming this panic-bid is driven by Pelosi’s “hopeful” comments on stimulus but she has said the same exact word every day for two weeks.

Meanwhile gold is chaotic with futures ripped back above $1900, only to be dumped again…

 

And bonds are being sold…

 

Month-/Quarter-end rebalancing?

end

Dave from Denver…

 

Gold, Silver And The “Shit-Show”

“I’m just gonna say it like it is – that was a shit- show.”  Dana Bash, CNN in reference to the “Presidential” debate.   “The debate was a national mortification – ‘shit-show’ was an understatement” – Chris Powell, GATA.

Last night’s debate was nothing short of a complete tragedy:  the tragedy of a collapsing empire.  I saw an ad on one of the financial propaganda cable channels that billed the debate as “The Main Event”  as if it were to be promoted like a championship boxing match.

Politicians and the political environment are nothing more than a reflection of the surrounding system and populace at large.  The entire U.S. system is a shit-show.  The financial markets have become so disconnected from the underlying economic and fiscal reality that it takes several trillion dollars in monetary intervention from the Central Bank to keep them from collapsing.

The stock market’s complete dysfunctionality is represented by the dozens of tech-related “unicorn” type companies that collectively burn billions in cash every quarter and yet have market caps in the tens of billions of dollars.  If anything, Tesla is emblematic of the degree to which the entire U.S. financial and political system is a complete fraud.

And then there’s gold and silver. The mainstream financial media dismissively reported the $950 million dollar fine to be paid by JP Morgan for manipulating the gold market.  But it was just some rogue employees “spoofing” the market. Spoofing is not the issue. The gold market  is, and has been for several decades, manipulated systematically to prevent the price of gold rising to a price level vs the dollar that reflects and embodies everything described above. “Spoofing” is nothing.  It’s the creation of derivatives with a notional value in the trillions to be used in large quantities to push the price of gold lower.  Here’s an example:

Part of the problem is that the mainstream financial media has become nothing more than hand-puppets for the Wall Street operators who pay their compensation by sponsoring their media abortion. They merely print the words fed to them. You’ll note that Investing.com is attributing the sell-off in gold this morning to a “weak dollar.”  Yet yesterday Investing.com told us that the big move higher in gold was attributable to a “weak dollar.”  See what I mean?  Zombie hand-puppets.

That price plunge in the graphic above has nothing to do with the trading action in physical gold. Or to spoofing.  It’s a product of the gold market manipulators like JP Morgan unloading a massive quantity of paper gold onto the Comex and  triggering stop-loss orders set by hedge fund black box trading systems just as gold was about to launch through $1900 again. A $950 million fine is the cost of doing business for JP Morgan. The Fed has injected billions into JP Morgan since March. $950 million is not a deterrent – it’s an odd-lot.

The Central Banks, with the help of their bullion bank phalanges, are desperate to keep the gold price in check in order to maintain the credibility of the dollar-based fiat currency monetary system – a monetary system in which trillions worth of currency can be created with a computer keystroke and that is 100% fraudulent.

Who benefits the most?  The primary target of the $3-plus trillion printed since mid-March are the big banks, which started to collapse last summer.  The phony “repo” operation implemented in mid-September is the evidence of that fact.  But the Government’s fiscal “shit-show,” a financial system held up by a currency printing press and an economy largely in a depression will lead to trillions more in Federal Reserve intervention.

The implication of the shit-show described above is that eventually the price of gold is going to move considerably higher in relation to all fiat currencies and, specifically, the U.S. dollar. You’ll never see Investing.com or financial TV report that the dollar has lost 98.2% of its value vs. gold since 1971.  But do the math – it’s a fact.  The loss of the remaining 1.8% vs gold is the what the western Central Banks are fighting to prevent. It’s their Maginot Line.  And it’s the eventual loss of that 1.8% that will send the price of gold measured in fiat currencies into orbit.

The short term gold chart looks as bullish as it has looked YTD. Last week’s sell-off was a gift to those who understand what is happening, why it’s happening and what can be done to protect wealth. Think I’m blowing smoke?  I put my money where my mouth is.  Last week, all week long as the gold and silver were pushed lower in price vs the dollar, I bought gold and silver bullion coins for the first time since early 2017 when gold was near $1100 and silver was around $16. On a relative scale, in which the “scale” is the severity of the shit-show,  gold and silver are cheaper now than in 2017. That’s why I converted more fiat currency into real money.

This chart is coup de grace:

The Central Banks are starting to lose their grip on that final 1.8%.  The value of gold relative to the U.S. dollar is beginning to accelerate along with the amount of systemic corruption, fraud and general perversion.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8100/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8151   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 6.31 POINTS OR 0.20%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 183.52 POINTS OR 0.46%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 359.98 POINTS OR 1.50%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

 

 

 

USA dollar index UP TO 94.07/Euro FALLS TO 1.1711

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.68/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 39.03 and Brent: 41.10

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.54%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.86% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.23%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.40: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.02

3k Gold at $1885.65 silver at: 23.74   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 68/100 in roubles/dollar) 78.41

3m oil into the 39 dollar handle for WTI and 41 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.68 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9227 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.08033 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.54%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.649% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.412%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.7697..

US Futures Slide After Debate Chaos

US equity futures and most global markets dropped after an acrimonious and chaotic US presidential debate, which CNN’s Dana Bash described as a “shitshow” on air, and which did little to change voters minds but underscored the risk of a contested vote in November. Safe assets, such as the yen and dollar also rose as a continued rise in COVID-19 spooked some traders although strong factory surveys boosted China’s markets.

S&P 500 futures were last 0.6% lower, with Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures down by as much as 1%. Asian trading had been choppy rather than outright weak but Europe sank 0.5% early on amid worries too over the steep rises in coronavirus infections across the region again, although a wave of buying managed to bring European markets back to even. Google dipped after a report that China was preparing to launch an antitrust probe into Alphabet’s Google.

While futures initially rose, they kneejerked lower after the end of the debate as Trump cast doubt on whether he would accept the election’s outcome if he lost. Here

“What we’ve seen from the debate is the reinforcement that if Biden wins, Trump is not going to accept that,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. in Melbourne. “People positioned for an ugly contest afterwards have been validated….I don’t think we were expecting anything else from Trump. He continues to put that contested (result) risk premium back into the market.”

They have since rebounded however, as the first presidential debate offered little trading cues for bond and currency markets, according to Jun Kato, chief market analyst at Shinkin Asset Management, who noted that Trump’s performance was in line with his usual behavior and it was unclear if Biden emerged superior in the debate.

“The debate just added to the confusion about how the election will run,” said SEB investment management’s global head of asset allocation Hans Peterson. “But financially it doesn’t change anything.”

“The share market normally prefers the incumbent (president) to win,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital in Sydney. “U.S. futures initially rose, as perhaps Trump delivered some punches, but it wasn’t enough,” he said.

To be sure, the debate was an absolute mess with 69% of people in a CBS poll said they were annoyed with the event, “which featured expletives, name calling, insults and shouting that made it hard to hear what was actually being said.”

DB’s Jim Reid agrees, writing overnight that “there was very little substance in the debate and almost no new information proffered. The story of the debate will likely surround the President’s consistent interruption, though Mr Biden was not able to stay above the fray and traded insults at times with Mr Trump. Acrimony ruled.

More to the point, and as we asked if the debate actually matters, Bloomberg’s John Authers writes that the debate “appears to have changed little” who shows trading over the last 24 hours on the Predictit contract for which party wins the election. Volume was heavy during the debate, and yet it translated into a just-perceptible improvement for the Democrats, nothing more.

Bookies reported much the same thing; betting markets had been slightly more optimistic for Donald Trump than the prediction markets, but now they are in exact alignment. Like Predictit, the Betfair exchange now puts Biden’s victory chance at 60%. Before the debate, Biden’s odds were 4/5 on (56%). They are now 4/6 (60%). Trump’s odds, if you fancy a bet, widened from 11/8 to 6/4. Biden is ahead but not by the kind of margin that anyone would want to risk  a lot of money on.

The presidential debate yielded no clear winner and barely moved the needle in betting markets, which project a narrow Biden victory. Odds maker Smarkets slightly lowered Trump’s chance of re-election to 40% after the debate from 42% beforehand.

As we said last night, and as Authers repeats this morning, Biden succeeded by “surviving the debate” and giving the president one less opportunity to bring him down in future, and while both made statements that might be usable against them, it was hard to hear what either of them were saying for lengthy tracts of the debate. The conclusion: “It’s hard to see how any genuinely undecided voter would have changed their mind on the basis of this.

Perhaps more market moving was the latest Chinese official and Caixin PMI, both of which hit just before China goes on vacation for a week. The September Manufacturing PMIs from both the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Caixin signaled continued solid expansion of manufacturing activity. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI rose in September as well with the services PMI climbing to the highest level since mid-2012. The China NBS purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) suggest manufacturing activity continued to expand at a solid pace in September:

  • The NBS manufacturing PMI headline index was at 51.5 in September, vs 51.0 in August.
  • The NBS non-manufacturing PMI (comprised of the service and construction sectors at roughly 80%/20% weightings, based on our estimates) rose 0.7pp to 55.9 in September on a stronger services PMI. The services PMI climbed to 55.2, the highest level since June 2012.

The Caixin manufacturing PMI released later in the morning came in at 53.0, only slightly lower than 53.1 in August which was the highest level since early 2011. Similar to the NBS manufacturing survey, the Caixin manufacturing survey suggest stronger new export orders, higher employment sub-index and higher input cost pressures. The new export order sub-index in the Caixin manufacturing survey surged to 54.4 in September, the strongest reading since September 2014.

As Goldman concludes, “manufacturing PMIs suggest overall activity continued to recover in September in the manufacturing sector, on the back of persistent strength in exports. Services sector activity recovery has been catching up, as suggested by the higher services PMI under the NBS PMI survey.”

Alas, there were less good news on the US jobs front, following several blockbuster layoff announcements. Walt Disney made one of the deepest workforce reductions in not only the Covid-19 era but in history, when it announced it was firing 28,000 workers. Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell said it will cut as many as 9,000 jobs as it struggles with low demand and tries to restructure towards low-carbon energy. Dow also said it would cut 6% of its workforce, while Marathon Petroleum also started layoffs.

* * *

Back to market globally, most of which are headed for their first monthly retreats since March’s meltdown, either deepened losses or pulled back from highs scaled after data showed China’s economic recovery remains on track.  MSCI’s broadest index of world shares dropped 0.2% for a 4% September loss. Oil is down just over 10% this month while gold’s 4.1% drop will make it its worst month since late 2016.

Asia had held its ground overnight, led by a 0.8% gain in Hong Kong, though Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.5% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost over 2%. Chinese property developers gained, led by a 15% jump in Evergrande shares after the heavily-indebted giant reached a deal to ease cash crunch concerns, as noted last nightChina’s factory activity expansion accelerated in September, helped by rising export orders.

In Europe, declines in industrial-goods and tech shares outweighed gains in utilities.

In FX, options trade points to a volatile November. Two-month dollar/yen volatility, a gauge of expected moves in the yen, is elevated, and its premium over one-month volatility is near record levels. Major currencies eased against the dollar after the debate, The euro dipped from a one-week high to $1.1736 and the risk-sensitive Australian dollar fell 0.2% to $0.7118, heading for its worst month since March.

In rates, Treasuries barely budged, with yields remaining within a basis point of Tuesday’s closing levels ahead of U.S. data raft including September ADP employment change and 2Q GDP. Yields were higher by less than 1bp at long end, steepening 5s30s by ~1bp; 10-year yields steady around 0.65%, outperforming bunds and gilts by less than 1bp. Price action was choppy but not sustained during first U.S. presidential debate late Tuesday, leaving yields slightly cheaper at long end. The long end may draw support toward end of U.S. trading day from month-end index rebalancing.

In commodities, oil prices fell amid rising concerns about fuel demand as the coronavirus pandemic worsens. Brent crude futures were last down 0.9% at $40.66 a barrel and U.S. crude futures were down 0.7% at $39.00 a barrel. Gold slipped 0.4% to 1,890 an ounce.

Looking at the day ahead, Fed speakers include the Fed’s Bowman, Bullard, and Kashkari. In terms of data, we’ll get the third reading of Q2 GDP, August’s pending home sales, the MNI Chicago PMI for September and the ADP employment change for September.

Market Snapshot:

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.9% to 3,305.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 360.02
  • MXAP down 0.6% to 169.28
  • MXAPJ up 0.09% to 553.65
  • Nikkei down 1.5% to 23,185.12
  • Topix down 2% to 1,625.49
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 23,459.05
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,218.05
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 38,156.23
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.3% to 5,815.94
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,327.89
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to -0.541%
  • Euro down 0.1% to $1.1728
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 0.648%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 0.229%
  • Brent futures down 1.8% to $40.30/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,886.96
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 94.16

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg:

  • President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden hurled insults and repeatedly interrupted each other in their first debate, sparring over topics ranging from health care to the economy and their families as moderator Chris Wallace tried mostly in vain to control the conversation
  • Trump Sees Wide Vote Fraud That Doesn’t Exist: Debate Fact Check
  • Boris Johnson is braced for defeat in Parliament over his controversial plan to re-write the Brexit withdrawal agreement, a blow that could throw negotiations with the European Union into chaos at a critical time
  • Japan’s industrial production increased for a third month in August as the economy continued to reopen, though the gains slowed from July’s record jump
  • The European Union’s historic 1.8 trillion-euro ($2.1 trillion) budget and stimulus package is in danger of being delayed due to a disagreement among member states about how to enforce the adherence to democratic values, according to a spokesman for the German government
  • Italy plans to bring its budget deficit back into line with European Union rules in 2023 after a dramatic increase in spending dictated by the coronavirus outbreak
  • Oil held below $40 a barrel on rising concerns that it will be some time before there’s a meaningful recovery in demand

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asian equity markets were mixed with participants indecisive as focus centred on the US Presidential Debate where US President Trump faced off with former VP Biden on a range of topics including COVID-19, the economy, taxes and foreign dealings of former VP Biden’s son. The debate featured plenty of bickering and highlighted no love lost between the candidates with President Trump criticizing Biden’s son and with Biden referring to Trump as a clown on several occasions, while marginal upside was seen in US equity futures early in the debate as the widely viewed front-runner Biden showed a more composed tone with President Trump seemingly disruptive and interrupting Biden and the moderator a few times, which favoured the notion of a Blue Sweep. However, all the gains were later pared at the end of the debate which descended into chaos with plenty of disruptions and President Trump also suggested the idea of a contested election which could last for months. As such, ASX 200 (-2.3%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.5%) were negative with Australia dragged lower by losses in the energy sector and with financials also underperforming, while Tokyo sentiment was lacklustre following Industrial Production data which despite beating expectations, still showed a double-digit percentage contraction Y/Y. Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) were initially both positive on the eve of Golden Week as participants digested better than expected Chinese Official PMI data and although Caixin Manufacturing PMI slightly missed, the data showed new export orders rose by the most in 3 years and the employment gauge returned to growth; however, gains in Shanghai were pared back. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded lacklustre as prices reversed some of yesterday’s gains but with downside stemmed amid the BoJ’s presence in the market today and after the central bank also kept its purchase intentions for October unchanged.

Top Asian News

  • CLSA Exodus Deepens as Beijing Tightens Grip, Reins In Pay
  • Alibaba Expects First Profit From its Cloud Arm This Year
  • Armenian-Azeri Fighting Continues, Ignoring Cease-Fire Appeals
  • Japan’s Factory Output Rises for Third Month in August

A relatively choppy session thus far for European stocks, albeit with losses somewhat contained (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%), as sentiment was dampened overnight amid the fallout from the US Presidential debate, whilst fresh catalysts during European hours remain scarce. That being said, the EU released their report on rule of law deficiencies which singles out Hungary and Poland – a move which could threaten the swift implantation of the EU Recovery Fund as unanimity is needed to roll out the package. Meanwhile, China opened an antitrust probe into Google (-1.8% pre-market) over market dominance. European bourses see varying degrees of losses, with FTSE 100 (-0.1%) cushioned by a softer Sterling, and Spain’s IBEX (-0.1%) supported by gains in large-cap stocks including Telefonica (+0.6%) after reports said it is mulling the sale of an additional stake in its mobile telephone mast unit Telxius. Thus the telecom sector outperforms, with added tailwinds from gains in Orange (+0.7%), Bouygues (+0.9%) after the French Telecom Regulator said prices for the 5G spectrum are up by EUR 220mln following the first round of auctions, with the latter also buoyed by its disposal of Alstom (-2.2%) shares. IT meanwhile resides on the other side of the spectrum following earnings from Micron (-4.7% pre-mkt) despite beating on both top and bottom line is afflicted more-so on sub-par guidance. As such, Infineon (-1.2%), SAP (-1.2%) and STMicroelectronics (-1.2%) are subdued. Travel and Leisure also resides towards the bottom of the pile amid the ongoing woes for the sector with regards to rising COVID-19 infections. In terms of individual movers, Suez (+6.5%) is a top gainer in the Stoxx 600 after Veolia (+1.8%) upped its offer for the Co. to EUR 18/shr from EUR 15.50/shr. Shell (+0.5%) sees modest gains despite a rather gloomy Q3 update, but with upside potentially on further cost-cutting measures including global job losses of up to 9,000 employees by end-2022.

Top European News

  • Damning Report Set to Worsen Spat Over EU’s Jumbo Recovery Fund
  • ECB to Consider Allowing Inflation Overshoot, Lagarde Says
  • SNB Spent 90 Billion Francs on Interventions as Virus Took Hold
  • Merkel’s Old Foe May Finally Get His Chance to Undo Her Legacy

In FX, the Dollar and index by design seem to have found their footing after extending declines amidst all the bickering between incumbent US President Trump and rival Biden overnight. The DXY has revisited 94.000, albeit just within a 94.180-93.789 range and could be seeing late if not last minute rebalancing demand for the end of September and Q3 alongside a touch of safe-haven buying as broad risk sentiment wavers. Ahead, a busy US data schedule including ADP before Friday’s BLS report and more Fed speak via current FOMC voters Kashkari, Bowman and Kaplan.

  • CHF/GBP – Lagging fellow G10 currencies, and perhaps surprisingly given the Swiss KOF indicator easily beating consensus and advancing further above the 100.0 mark, while revised UK GDP was not quite as abject as the initial estimates and a degree of Brexit positivity persists following reports that chief EU negotiator Barnier sees an improvement in the atmosphere, more engagement from the UK side and a fresh ’buzz’ in talks. However, the Franc is back under 0.9200 and Cable has tested support ahead of 1.2800, as Eur/Gbp consolidates above 0.9100. For the record, nothing new whatsoever from BoE’s Haldane – see headline feed at 9.30BST for bullets and a link to the full speech.
  • NZD/AUD – In contrast to the above, recoveries in NZ business sentiment and the outlook for activity, not as weak as forecast Aussie building approvals and better than expected Chinese PMIs that are helping the YUAN claw back losses vs the Greenback towards 6.8100, are all keeping the Antipodes afloat. Nzd/Usd has been over 0.6600 and Aud/Usd up to 0.7150, albeit off peaks as their US counterpart continues to regain poise.
  • JPY/CAD/EUR – The Yen remains rangebound vs the Buck and flanked by decent option expiry interest from 105.60-70 (1.1 bn) to 105.15-00 (1.3 bn) following moderately firmer than anticipated Japanese ip data, while the Loonie is still attempting to contain losses around 1.3400 ahead of Canadian monthly GDP and the Euro is striving to maintain 1.1700+ status in the face of stronger sell signals vs the US Dollar.
  • SCANDI/EM – Little reaction to Sweden’s NIER upgrading its 2020 jobless rate projection or a reduction in Norges Bank daily FX purchases for October, as Eur/Sek straddles 10.5400 and Eur/Nok holds off 11.1100+ highs on the aforementioned single currency retracement. Elsewhere, EMs are correcting higher after recent heavy depreciation vs the Usd, and even the tormented Rub and Try as trouble across the Armenian-Azeri border rumbles on.

In commodities, crude futures remain softer in early European hours as the rising COVID-19 cases continue to weigh on demand prospects for the complex, with some added pressure for the lackluster sentiment across markets following the US debate. Price saw another leg lower on reports that Beijing is said to be preparing an antitrust investigation into Google, in a sign that US-Sino relations are getting no better. Elsewhere, Norway’s Industri Energi and Safe Labour unions said its workers will not go on strike after agreeing on a wage deal, but Lederne Labour union said its workers will go ahead with strikes and will potentially escalate the situations at today’s meeting. This could cut the country’s oil output by some 470k BPD, according to the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association. WTI Nov resides just sub-39/bbl whilst Brent Dec sees itself marginally above USD 41/bbl. Precious metals meanwhile succumb to the firmer Buck, with spot gold around the USD 1880/oz mark having had drifted from a high of USD 1899/oz; spot silver underperforms but remains north of USD 23.50/oz (vs. high USD 24.32/oz). LME copper prices edge lower in tandem with losses across the stock markets coupled with a firmer Dollar, whilst Dalian iron ore futures rose some 5% amid rekindled fears of supply disruptions.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 649,000, prior 428,000
  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. -31.7%, prior -31.7%
  • 9:45am: MNI Chicago PMI, est. 52, prior 51.2
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 3.1%, prior 5.9%; Pending Home Sales NSA YoY, est. 17.6%, prior 15.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m a proud father this morning. One of the twins came home from nursery yesterday with a big badge pinned on him, rewarded for an achievement. As I got closer to it to see what it was for I wondered which advanced skill was being recognised. Had he counted? Had he recognised a word? Had he sung in tune or perhaps been thoughtful towards another child? No, his badge simply said on it “well done for not shouting”. To be fair our twins are so loud that any moment they are not screaming is an achievement and the nursery obviously now feel the same way.

In a raucous debate that was indeed full of shouting, it is unclear that either President Trump or Vice President Biden changed the trajectory of the election last night. The President came into the night down -6.8% in the fivethirtyeight.com national polling average while trailing in many of the battleground states, and we will track how polls change in the next few days. There was very little substance in the debate and almost no new information proffered. The story of the debate will likely surround the President’s consistent interruption, though Mr Biden was not able to stay above the fray and traded insults at times with Mr Trump. Acrimony ruled.

Outside of the debate, we have seen China’s official September PMIs overnight with both the manufacturing (at 51.5 vs 51.3 expected) and non-manufacturing (at 55.9 vs. 54.7 expected) beating consensus expectations and reaffirming the message that the country’s recovery remains on track aided partly by strong exports. In details of the manufacturing PMI, new export orders climbed to 50.8 (vs. 49.1 last month), marking the first time it has printed above 50 this year while the new orders index also rose to 52.8 (vs. 52.0 ). Overall, the official composite PMI printed at 55.1 (vs. 54.5 last month). Alongside, the official PMIs we also saw China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI which came in a touch softer (0.1pt) than expectations at 53.0.

The Hang Seng (+1.18%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.45%) are trading up this morning following the PMI beat. Other markets in the region are mostly trading lower with the Nikkei (-0.84%) and Asx (-1.82%) both down while India’s Nifty (-0.05%) has opened weak. South Korea’s markets are closed for a holiday. Futures on the S&P 500 are also trading weak at -0.67% following the Presidential debate and European futures are pointing to a weak open (Stoxx 50 -0.44% and Dax -0.38%). Meanwhile, oil prices are trading down c. -1%. Elsewhere, Micron Technology said overnight that it has recently halted shipments to China’s Huawei. The company also announced a cut in its capital spending plans and warned about weaker demand from some corporate customers and forecast possible oversupply in a key market next year. Shares of the company fell -3.9% in afterhours trading due to this. In terms of other overnight data, Japan’s September retail sales printed at +4.6% mom (vs. +2.0% mom expected).

Ahead of the debate, risk assets fell back yesterday as markets were unable to maintain the strong momentum from Monday, with negative news on the coronavirus seemingly outweighing more positive consumer confidence numbers. By the close, equities had lost ground on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 (-0.48%) and the STOXX 600 (-0.52%) both falling back. Energy stocks led the moves lower thanks to falling oil prices, as both Brent Crude (-3.30%) and WTI (-3.23%) underwent major falls, while banks also struggled to follow-through on their strong start to the week.

Starting with Covid, yesterday saw some negative news from the US, with the daily positivity rate in New York City rising above 3% yesterday for the first time in months, according to Mayor de Blasio. The threshold is a significant one, as de Blasio has said that the city’s schools will shut if the positivity rate is above 3% on a rolling 7-day average basis, though for now that still remains at 1.38%. The US overall has seen hosptilisations plateau at 30,000 after falling from nearly 60,000 in the middle of the summer. With cases again increasing marginally in the US over the last 2-3 weeks attention will shift to hospital capacity as the weather grows colder in the northern US. Meanwhile in Germany, Chancellor Merkel recommended that private parties were limited to 25 people, and in the UK a record 7,152 cases were reported yesterday, which also drove the 7-day average above 6,000. There was some weekend catch up to this data though. Best to look at the 7-day rolling number in the table below for the best state of play.

There was some good news overnight on the pharmaceutical front. A Regeneron Covid-19 antibody cocktail, still in early stage trials, saw positive data that it helped reduce viral levels and improved symptoms. At the same time, data from phase 2 testing showed that the Moderna vaccine triggered a “strong antibody” response in adults, with “severe” side effects in one volunteer. Meanwhile, in a sign of the pandemic’s lasting impact on the hospitality industry, Walt Disney said overnight that it is laying off 28,000 employees in its US resort business, marking one of the deepest workforce reductions of the pandemic. The cuts span the company’s theme parks, cruise ships and retail businesses and will include executives; however, 67% of those being terminated are part time employees.

In the world of central banks, Dallas Fed president Kaplan indicated that he did not expect the US economy to get back on track from the pandemic until late-2022 or even 2023. While not advocating for higher rates, Kaplan said that the Fed should remain accommodative but that may not mean keeping rates at zero. He warned that there were “real costs” to near-zero rates for elongated periods of time, specifically it can “adversely impact savers, encourage excessive risk taking and create distortions in financial markets.” We also heard from New York Fed president Williams who is not worried about inflation, though acknowledged they would deal with it if it came. Williams had a similar time frame for full recovery as Kaplan of 3 years and again seemed to call on fiscal stimulus help, saying that the recovery needed “all the official support it can get.”

And there was some more positive news on the prospects of US fiscal stimulus, with Speaker Pelosi’s deputy chief of staff tweeting that Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin spoke yesterday morning on the phone for around 50 minutes, and agreed to speak again today. There will be a floor vote in the Senate on a relief package of some sort later this week according to reports, either the Democrat-written $2.2 trillion fiscal bill or a more bipartisan effort if one can come together. In spite of a lack of stimulus, data from the Conference Board showed US consumer confidence index experiencing the biggest monthly jump in 17 years, with a stronger-than-expected rise to 101.8 in September.

Staying with yesterday, there were some significant headlines from Europe, as a spokesperson for the German presidency of the Council of the European Union said on the recovery fund that “The timetable is in danger of slipping. A delay of the EU budget and the Recovery fund is becoming increasingly likely”. Remember that the package needs to be agreed unanimously, but there’ve been disputes over the possibility of rule-of-law conditions, and yesterday a letter was published from Hungarian PM Orban which called for the Commission Vice President for Values and Transparency to be sacked, after she called Hungary a “sick democracy”.

Over in the fixed income sphere, sovereign bonds rallied yesterday as investors moved out of risk assets. Perhaps the biggest headline came from Italy, where the country’s 30yr yield fell to a fresh all time record low of 1.74%. However there was a strong performance across the board, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.7bps), OATs (-1.5bps) and BTPs (-2.7bps) all falling back. 10yr Treasury yields also fell -0.3bps, their 4th successive move lower. This came as the US dollar fell -0.41% Tuesday, to start the week with its worst 2-day performance since 31 Aug, however the currency is still set to record its first monthly gain since March.

On Brexit, the 9th round of negotiations began yesterday between the UK and the EU in Brussels, with Bloomberg reporting that the UK has submitted 5 confidential draft legal texts. Negotiations continue until Friday, and the question this week will be whether enough progress can be made for the two sides to be able to reach agreement by Prime Minister Johnson’s self-imposed deadline of October 15, when a summit of EU leaders takes place.

Wrapping up with some of Europe’s data from yesterday, German inflation fell to a 5-year low of -0.4% in September, which was below the -0.1% reading expected and will only add to concerns about weak price pressures in the Euro Area. That said, the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the Euro Area rose for a 5th straight month in September, up to 91.1 (vs. 89.0 expected). Finally in the UK, consumer credit data showed that net borrowing was weaker-than-expected in August, coming in at £0.3bn (vs. £1.5bn expected).

To the day ahead now, and the highlights include an array of central bank speakers, including ECB President Lagarde, chief economist Lane, and the ECB’s Muller, Rehn and Kazimir. Otherwise, there’s also the Fed’s Bowman, Bullard, and Kashkari, along with the Bank of England’s chief economist Haldane. In terms of data, we’ll get the preliminary September CPI readings from France and Italy, the September change in unemployment from Germany, while from the US there’s the third reading of Q2 GDP, August’s pending home sales, the MNI Chicago PMI for September and the ADP employment change for September.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.31 POINTS OR 0.20%  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 183.52 POINTS OR 0.79%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 359.98 POINTS OR 1.50%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.11%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8100 /Oil DOWN TO 3903 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.10 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8100 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8151 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA VS USA//GOOGLE

China’s move after the Trump administration hit giant SMIC last wee, is to target Google’s android operating system in China in their anti trust crackdown

(zerohedge)

Beijing Targets Google’s Android Operating System In Looming Anti-Trust Crackdown

By imposing new sanctions on Chinese chipmaker giant SMIC last week, the Trump Administration signaled that it isn’t letting up on the economic war it’s waging against China. After essentially cutting China’s biggest chipmaker off from its largest customer, Huawei, with sanctions restricting the types of products that can be shipped to Huawei and its subsidiaries, the new sanctions on SMIC will rob it of what’s believed to be its second-most-valuable client, American chipmaker Qualcomm.

Even a ruling handed down on Sunday that spared TikTok  from being barred from American app stores is only temporary, and the company must still contend with a later deadline, and further pressure to strike a deal.

Although Trump and his top trade officials have argued these measures are akin to giving China a taste of its own medicine, the expansive trade war being waged by the administration is infuriating to Beijing. Now, Beijing is lashing out at an American tech giant – Google parent Alphabet – by taking a page out of EU antitrust head Margrethe Vestager’s playbook. Reuters reports that China is preparing to launch an anti-trust probe into Alphabet’s Android operating system and attempts by Alphabet to stifle competition in the Chinese market. The case was reportedly first proposed by Huawei, has been submitted by the country’s top market regulator to the State Council’s antitrust committee for review.

Reuters reports that a formal investigation might come as soon as October, and will likely depend on “China’s relationship with the US”. In other words, Beijing is turning up the pressure on an American tech giant and creating a bargaining chip out of thin air.

China is preparing to launch an antitrust probe into Alphabet Inc’s Google, looking into allegations it has leveraged the dominance of its Android mobile operating system to stifle competition, two people familiar with the matter said.

The case was proposed by telecommunications equipment giant Huawei Technologies Co Ltd last year and has been submitted by the country’s top market regulator to the State Council’s antitrust committee for review, they added.

A decision on whether to proceed with a formal investigation may come as soon as October and could be affected by the state of China’s relationship with the United States, one of the people said.

China’s State Administration for Market Regulation, its top anti-trust regulator, is preparing new anti-trust measures that will create yet another barrier to foreign firms operating in the Chinese market. It’s also looking into whether companies like Google have caused “extreme damage” to Chinese companies like Huawei. We wouldn’t be surprised to see Google pay the price for some of the Trump Administration’s aggression.

It also comes as China embarks on a major revamp of its antitrust laws with proposed amendments including a dramatic increase in maximum fines and expanded criteria for judging a company’s control of a market.

A potential probe would also look at accusations that Google’s market position could cause “extreme damage” to Chinese companies like Huawei, as losing the U.S. tech giant’s support for Android-based operating systems would lead to loss of confidence and revenue, a second person said.

Unlike in Europe, most Chinese phones use an open-source version of Android that offers alternatives to Google services. So it’s unclear what, exactly, is being targeted by Beijing. The EU memorably fined Google several times in recent years, including a $5.1 billion hit in 2018 over “anticompetitive” practices like forcing phone makers to pre-install Google apps on Android devices, while adding barriers to non-Google products. Indian regulators, meanwhile, are looking into whether Google has abused its market position to unfairly promote its mobile payments app in India.

“China will also look at what other countries have done, including holding inquiries with Google executives,” said the person.

The second source added that one learning point would be how fines are levied based on a firm’s global revenues rather than local revenues.

Reuters points out that Huawei missed its 2019 revenue target by a whopping $12 billion, which the company blamed on American aggression. Now, just imagine how US stocks might react to Alphabet posting a massive miss on revenue because China effectively banned Android phones from the world’s biggest market.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

DENMARK/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

After Sweden, we now have Denmark return to pre Covid normality: no masks no distancing in schools

(Henningsen/21st Century Wire)

Denmark Nears Pre-COVID Normality: No Masks Or Distancing In Schools, Just Common Sense

Authored by Patrick Henningsen via 21st Century Wire,

One of the more diabolical aspects of the protracted COVID ‘crisis’ in countries like the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia, is the intellectually dishonest claim that Coronavirus in their countries is somehow different from the Coronavirus in other western countries. 

It’s like there are two parallel universes now. While the Anglosphere continues to ramp-up its emergency ‘pandemic’ measures and mandatory mask and quarantine policies, their Scandinavian counterparts like Sweden, Norway or Denmark have already returned to life as normal; no masks on public transport (although Norway just introduced a new rule today advising masks on crowded carriages), no obsessive social distancing rules, no snap lockdowns, and certainly no draconian laws and threats of £10,000 fines made by government leaders, or holding the country hostage until a wonder vaccine arrives in the spring. The contrast couldn’t be more extreme.

Why has normality not returned to the US and UK?

Perhaps the worst aspect of the new hypochondriac culture being aggressively promoted in the US and UK is how the state bureaucrats and schools are now targeting children and young adults with a relentless regime of restrictive and nonsensical health and safety policies. One of the main drivers of the school chaos in the UK has been the teachers/public service unions, who have seized on the crisis in order to leverage political power and carve out a platform in the national spotlight. Union officials repeated the fallacious claim that schools were no longer safe unless a whole new raft of new rules, regulations and government assurances were put into place. The list of issues and concerns keeps growing by the day and is now threatening to bring normal education to a grinding halt.

As a result of this over-the-top fear-based approach to risk mitigation, the lives of students and their families across the UK have been unnecessarily disrupted. In just the first few weeks of school, many thousands of students have already been removed from school and sent home and placed under under 14 day house arrest-quarantine order by school administrators – all because another student in school or a teacher had tested PCR positive for COVID.

Many schools are also ordering all primary, secondary and high school students to remain under house arrest at home over their half-term break, supposedly to “stop the spread of the virus.”

British authorities have even gone so as to demand that university students remain on campus over the Christmas break in order “stop the spread of COVID to their families back home.”

All of this is taking place at a time where hospitalisations and deaths due to COVID have dropped to near zero in the UK. In other words: the ‘pandemic’, if it ever was one, is now over.

GRAPH: Since May, hospitalisations in the UK have plummeted, as have deaths attributed to COVID19.

Still, neither school or government health officials will readily admit the fact that young people at statistically at near zero risk of any complications due to COVID. Likewise, nearly all teachers fall well below the well-established elderly age-bracket risk zone. In addition to this, UK officials still refuse to acknowledge that the PCR test is not only unreliable as a diagnostic tool for COVID, it also cannot rightly identify whether a positive PCR test is indeed a ‘case’ or even an ‘infection.’  This means that the entire mass-testing effort championed by governments is fatally flawed at source. This is not up for debate, it is a scientific reality.

By contrast, from the very beginning of the crisis, Sweden never closed its schools and only required its university-aged students to temporarily migrate to remote teaching online. The results for Sweden have been impressive – minimal or no interruption for millions of students nationwide during such a crucial stage in their formative educational years.

Unfortunately, the opposite path has been pursued in the US and UK, and the results have been catastrophic.

IMAGE: ‘Normal life’ – a scene from Amagertorv Strøget in Copenhagen, Denmark (Source: Wikicommons)

Unlike in the UK, the Danish Teachers Union did not take to the media to try and hold government and schools hostage by threatening to strike if the State could not guarantee all schools were”safe” for teachers. Instead, there were sane and measured discussions, and genuine cooperation between the government and the teachers’ unions. Interestingly, both parties allowed the schools to be the final authority on how to conduct the business of managing schools and education.

During a recent discussion with CBC, Dorte Lange, VP of the Danish Teachers Union described the type of practical, common sense approach which appears to have escaped the educational brain trust in Britain and US – realising that it’s “very much is up to the schools to see what’s the best way forward for us with our kids.”

While some social distancing measures were put into place early on when schools were opened in April and May, most of the major precautionary measures have since been lifted because Danish educators and administrators rightly recognised that you cannot carry on with mass-panic and an open-ended state of emergency; the masks, the endless quarantines and the bizarre social distancing – without jeopardising, and eventually ruining their students’ education experience.

Again, the fundamental question still remains: if it’s the same virus everywhere, then why have Scandinavian countries taken a completely different approach?

Putting aside the very real possibility that all of this is part of a massive state and corporate power grab in the UK, US, Australia and elsewhere, there is another fundamentally democratic issue at play here. The marked difference in policy demonstrates how the social contract between citizens and government is still alive and healthy in Scandinavia. In other words: their governments still desire a mutual arrangement with the people.

Has this same social contract been abandoned in the UK, US and Australia?

CBC reports from Denmark…

Ålholm headmaster Soren Vith said getting close to students comes with risk, but he wants the school experience to be as normal as possible. (Lily Martin/CBC)

Every seat in Jens Rodgaard’s Grade 5 class is full — there is no physical distance at all. 

When a student raises their hand with a question, Rodgaard is by their side in an instant and leans in to help.

“You have to be around them and help them, help them with spelling, help them make choices, and for proper teaching we can’t do that with the distance,” Rodgaard said.

Students must sanitize their hands every time they enter the school and the grades aren’t supposed to mingle with each other. But there isn’t a mask in sight.

This is what Phase 2 of school reopening looked like at Ålholm public school in Copenhagen, Denmark, this week, a month into the second semester.

“Right now we are trying to make things as normal as possible, [to] not scare any kids,” said Rodgaard, who has taught at Ålholm for 28 years.

The school’s goal is to make the experience of education as normal as possible during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Other schools have more rules in place. At this stage, Denmark is allowing each school to come up with its own COVID-19 safety plans.

Right now, the country’s strategy of containing the coronavirus seems to be working. Countries around the world, including Canada, have looked at the Danish model in designing their own school plans…

Continue this report at CBC…

*  *  *

Now, after six months of pandemia, it’s now clearer than ever how COVID has simply revealed a steady drift towards fascism in parts of the West – a trend previously obscured by endless cycles of media and political rhetoric and platitudes about democracy, and convoluted by constant fearmongering about a non-existent Russian threat to something vaguely referred to as ‘our way of life.’ It’s time for the high-minded guardians of democracy in the ‘free’ West to take a long hard look in the mirror.

end

ERNST AND YOUNG/WIRECARD/FRAUD

Ernst and Young totally ignored whistleblower’s warning about the fraud inside Wirecard

(zerohedge)

Ernst & Young Ignored Whistleblower’s Warnings About $2.1BN Wirecard Fraud Back In 2016

Despite Ernst & Young’s global chairman insisting that the “Big Four” did nothing wrong in its overseeing of Wirecard during a time when the German fintech darling was running the biggest accounting frauds since WWII, the truth – as they say – will out.

In its latest bombshell report on Wirecard’s historic unraveling, the FT has reported that EY was, in fact, warned by one of its own employees in 2016 that senior management at Wirecard may have committed fraud on a massive scale. One even reportedly attempted to bribe an auditor.

Surely, if any other executive had tried to bribe an EY employee, that person would have immediately reported the illegal solicitation to his superiors. That’s apparently what happened here. Though apparently, somewhere along the line, the situation was knowingly quashed by management.

This is terrible news for EY, which is already facing an investigation by German regulators (who are now desperate to burnish their reputations after being denounced as “toothless” by practically every financial publication on the planet) as well as a flurry of lawsuits filed by Wirecard shareholders.

To recap: A special audit by EY rival KPMG uncovered a massive €1.9 billion ($2.1 billion) hole in Wirecard’s balance sheet, representing fraudulent profits beginning in 2015 and continuing through Q1 of this year. More digging by an inspector appointed by German bankruptcy court has found that Wirecard’s business was “almost entirely fictitious”. The company hired 1,000s of employees who apparently sat around pushing paper all day.

Clearly, EY is employing the deny, deny, deny  approach perfected by the Trump Administration as it seeks to slow-roll harmful revelations that discredit the auditor’s claims that it couldn’t have possibly known about Wirecard’s skulduggery. Because this doesn’t sound good:

The revelation that an EY employee identified suspicious activity at Wirecard four years before the payments group imploded in Germany’s largest postwar corporate fraud will increase the pressure on the accounting firm, which audited Wirecard for more than a decade and provided unqualified audits until 2018. EY is already under investigation by Germany’s auditor oversight body Apas and is the target of lawsuits from Wirecard investors who lost billions of euros when the company collapsed in June.  Last month, EY’s global chairman Carmine Di Sibio wrote to clients to express “regret” that the fraud was “not uncovered sooner” but he claimed that EY was ultimately “successful in uncovering the fraud”.

The latest revelations are part of an addendum to KMPG’s special auditor report. The FT has obtained a series of leaks from the report, including the initial finding of fraud, and this latest one is perhaps one of the most incriminating as far as EY is concerned. At one point, the FT reports that the addendum serves as a “damning indictment” of EY.

The new revelations are contained within an unpublished “info addendum” to a special audit by KPMG. Its main report was published in April, revealing the giant cash hole at the heart of Wirecard and precipitating the demise of the company. The 61-page addendum describes findings by KPMG that were not directly within its remit but that the firm deemed so significant it decided to report them anyway. The addendum, seen by the Financial Times, amounts to a damning indictment of EY. According to KPMG, EY’s unnamed whistleblower in May 2016 filed a letter to EY Germany’s headquarters in Stuttgart. The letter did not address the whole extent of Wirecard’s global fraud scheme that unravelled this year, but focused on one of four contentious areas that were the focus of KPMG’s special audit in late 2019: a series of acquisitions in India that Wirecard had closed in early 2016. Wirecard had paid €340m for Hermes i Tickets, GI Technology and Star Global, three payments companies that it bought from an opaque Mauritius entity named Emerging Market Investment Fund 1A.  The EY whistleblower asserted that “Wirecard Germany senior management” directly or indirectly held stakes in EMIF 1A and were therefore embroiled in a conflict of interest.

The warning stemmed from a deal in India where Wirecard “senior management” responsible for the deal appeared to have stakes in the company being acquired, and therefore sought to push up the bidding price to skim as much money out of the deal as possible.

The EY whistleblower asserted that “Wirecard Germany senior management” directly or indirectly held stakes in EMIF 1A and were therefore embroiled in a conflict of interest. The whistleblower also accused senior Wirecard managers of artificially inflating the operating profit of the Indian businesses in an attempt to push up the acquisition price, which was partly linked to future profits. These performance-dependent “earn-outs” represented a third of the total price tag.

When one of the managers learned that an EY employee was preparing to report them, he tried to bribe the employee. But that didn’t work.

According to the whistleblower, the Wirecard manager who held a senior position at Hermes offered a local EY employee a “personal compensation” provided the auditor agreed to sign off on manipulated sales numbers.

Still, the complaint went nowhere, which brings us to our next order of business concerning Wirecard. In a piece of “news analysis” published in Tuesday’s paper, the FT reports that the scandal is drawing ever closer to Chancellor Angela Merkel, who once did a personal favor for a senior Wirecard executive on behalf of the company.

At any rate, with the election for Merkel’s successor coming next year, the blowback against the ruling coalition, including Merkel’s Christian Democrat Union, and the Social Democrats – Olaf Scholz, the finance minister who has shouldered significant criticism for the government’s failings, is a Social Democrat – could be seriously bruising. The opposition Greens are doing everything they can to push the issue.

Fortunately, with former Wirecard COO Jens Marsalek still on the run, a series of well-placed media leaks recounting Marsalek’s actions are helping the German political establishment craft a convenient political narrative: Blame it all on Russia.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAQ/USA

The USA no doubt will leave Iraq: it is just not worth fighting over

(zerohedge)

‘Rapid Strikes To Follow’: Iraqis See US Threat To Shutter Embassy As Prelude To War

We detailed previously that the US State Department is livid over repeat rocket and mortar attacks on both the US Embassy in Baghdad and the high secure ‘Green Zone’ in which the American compound is located.

This resulted in US officials signaling at the start of this week they are mulling shuttering the embassy altogether and calling all diplomatic personnel home. Multiple reports say “preparations” for just such a retreat are underway, which strongly suggests bigger US military intervention will follow.

Not only was there weekend fire on the US embassy area, but a Monday attack on Baghdad’s international airport, which also hosts Western military advisory forces, killed five Iraqi civilians when a rocket slammed into their house on the edge of the airport.

 

Reuters file image: past formal opening of the US embassy in Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone, Jan. 5, 2009.

Both Iraqi and American diplomats have now told Reuters that the region will interpret closure of the US Embassy as a sure sign war is coming.

According to the report, it would mean a US “gloves off” approach to pro-Iranian Shia Iraqi militias which have long been blamed for the sporadic rocket attacks on Western interests, on a noticeable uptick of late:

Any move by the United States to reduce its diplomatic presence in a country where it has up to 5,000 troops would be widely seen in the region as an escalation of its confrontation with Iran, which Washington blames for missile and bomb attacks.

That in turn would open the possibility of military action, with just weeks to go before an election in which President Donald Trump has campaigned on a hard line towards Tehran and its proxies.

Indeed it could be a Trump administration “tough on Iran” foreign policy selling point, in line with the long-running maximum pressure campaign, especially given there are Iran hawks on both sides of the aisle.

Reuters cited Western diplomatic sources to say that if the go ahead order for a full embassy withdrawal is actually given, expect swift military action to follow: “The concern among the Iraqis is that withdrawing diplomats would be followed quickly by military action against forces Washington blamed for attacks.”

But the embassy closure or especially a timetable is still anything but certain, as the report notes:

One of the Western diplomats said the U.S. administration did not “want to be limited in their options” to weaken Iran or pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. Asked whether he expected Washington to respond with economic or military measures, the diplomat replied: “Strikes.”

The U.S. State Department, asked about plans to withdraw from Iraq, said: “We never comment on the Secretary’s private diplomatic conversations with foreign leaders … Iran-backed groups launching rockets at our Embassy are a danger not only to us but to the Government of Iraq.”

Typically the non-precision rockets fall in open fields, and it’s yet ultimately unknown and unproven just who or which group is behind the bulk of the attacks.

 

END

 

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN/TURKEY//last night

No real gains by anybody.  Armenia threatens to use Iskander short range missiles if Turkey does not withdraw

(zerohedge)

 

Azerbaijani-Armenian War: Turkish F-16s Enter The Game. Armenia Threatens To Use Iskander Missiles

Submitted by South Front,

The Armenian-Azerbaijani war continues raging in the South Caucasus.

As of September 29, the Azerbaijani advance in the Nagorno-Karabakh region struck the Armenian defense and Azerbaijani forces were not able to achieve any military breakthroughs. Armenian troops withdrew from several positions in the Talish area and east of Fuzuli.

The Azerbaijani military has been successfully employing combat drones and artillery to destroy positions and military equipment of Armenia, but Azerbaijani mechanized infantry was unable to develop its momentum any further.

While both sides claim that they eliminated multiple enemy fighters and made notable gains, the real situation on the ground remains more or less stable with minor gains achieved by Azerbaijani troops. Armenian sources say that 370 Azerbaijani troops were killed and over 1,000 injured. The number of killed Armenian fighters, according to Azerbaijani sources, is over 1,000. Armenian sources also note the notable role of Turkey in the developing conflict.

Armenian President Armen Sarkissian said that Turkey has been assisting Azerbaijan in its war against the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic with advisers, mercenaries and even F-16 fighter jets. He added that the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is still possible through dialogue. However, the President emphasized that the Armenian nation cannot allow a return to the past.

“105 years ago, the Ottoman Empire carried out the genocide of the Armenians. In no case can we allow this genocide to be repeated,” Sarkissian said.

Armenia threatens to use Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems obtained from Russia against Azerbaijani targets if Turkish F-16 warplanes are employed on the battlefield.

Meanwhile, Armenian Ambassador to Russia Vardan Toganyan said that members of Turkish-backed Syrian militant groups have been already participating in the conflict. He said that recently about 4,000 Turkish-backed militants were deployed to Azerbaijan. In turn, the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan said that “people who have arrived from Syria and other countries of the Middle East” are fighting on the side of Armenia. Earlier, pro-Turkish sources claimed that Armenia was transporting fighters from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Thus, the sides are not only claiming that they are gaining an upper hand in the war, but also accuse each other of using foreign mercenaries and terrorists.

On the evening of September 28, the Defense Ministry of the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic confirmed that 84 of its troops were killed in the recent escalation. The Armenian side also claimed that its forces had shot down an Azerbaijani aircraft. However, this claim was denied by the Azerbaijani military. Baku continues insisting that all Armenian claims about the Azerbaijani casualties in the war are fake news.

On September 29, the Armenian side continued reporting about Azerbaijani helicopters being shot down, and declaring that they repelled Azerbaijani attacks. Nonetheless, the scale and intensity of the strikes by the Azerbaijani side did not demonstrate any decrease. On top of this, the Armenian Defense Ministry said that a Turkish Air Force F-16 fighter jet shot down an Armenian Su-25 warplane. The F-16 fighter jet allegedly took off from the Ganja Airbase in Azerbaijan and was providing air cover to combat UAVs, which were striking targets in Armenia’s Vardenis, Mec Marik and Sotk. Azerbaijan and Turkey denied Armenian claims that a Turkish F-16 shot down the Su-25.

6.Global Issues

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1219 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOSCORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.85 DOWN 0.074 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2485   DOWN   0.0052  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3059 UP .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 8 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1219 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 6.31 POINTS OR 0.20% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 183.52 POINTS OR 1.50%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1,11%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 183.52 POINTS OR 1.50%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.31 POINTS OR 0.20%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.11% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 4359.98  POINTS OR 1.50%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1885.70

silver:$23.73-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.649% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.424 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 94.07 UP 17 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.26% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: 0.01%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.26%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.88 UP 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 62 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.52% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.40% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1713  DOWN   .0027 or 27 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.54 DOWN .135 OR YEN UP 14  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2905 UP .0041 POUND UP 41  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 63 basis points to 1.3321

 

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: AT 6.7908    ON SHORE  (UP)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7811  (YUAN UP)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  7.71 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at .01%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 0.686 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.47 UP 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.88 DOWN 1  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 31.40  0.53%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 65.09 POINTS OR .51%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 28.63 POINTS 0.59%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 3.00 POINTS or 0.04%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 45.91 POINTS OR 0.24%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 39.89 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 41.90 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    77.70  THE CROSS LOWER BY 1.39 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 139 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.52 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  39.90//

 

 

BRENT :  41.98

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.681 up 3 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.462..up 5 basis points..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.1726 ( DOWN 16   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.46 DOWN .207 (YEN UP 21 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.84 DOWN 5 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2903 UP 38  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 7.73

 

 

the Russian rouble 77.70   UP 1.39 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 139 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3316 UP 68 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.52%

 

The Dow closed UP 329.04 POINTS OR 1.20%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 82.26 POINTS OR 0.74%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  26.36 CLOSED UP .09

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.225%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks Suffer Worst September Since 2011 As Dollar & Election Doubt Soars

On the day, it was a story of stimulus hype, hope, nope, and rope-a-dope. Overnight weakness apparently suggested a Biden win, but then the buying panic was shrugged off as meaning the market liked Biden’s plan? Pelosi’s “hopeful” comments sparked early exuberance. Mnuchin meeting details added to the hype. And then McConnell told the truth late on that the two sides were “very very very far apart” and it all dumped…only to be ripped higher into the close!

The other big intraday news was the direct listing of Palantir, which opened at $10 and did not end well…

*  *  *

Q3 saw stocks and gold outperform as the dollar and bonds weakened…

Source: Bloomberg

But, in September, the story was reversed with gold and stocks slammed while the USD was bid and bonds erasing their gains today…

Source: Bloomberg

Which is “inconceivable” since “stocks only go up”?

Election uncertainty has screamed higher in September…

Source: Bloomberg

And as the following chart suggests, that vol may be here to stay for a while after the election…

Source: Goldman Sachs

Which may have weighed on stocks in September – pushing the S&P to its worst September since 2011, and Nasdaq was the worst of the US majors on the month…

 

Source: Bloomberg

While most of the majors all retraced their exuberance in September, Dow Transports held on to notable gains during Q3

 

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the bounce in equities and the reflation trade from last week’s lows, credit markets have not showed the same strength in the past week. Single-B credit spreads are the widest relative to BBB spreads in over a month and continue to widen. Bottom line: the weakest links in the credit arena are getting worried.

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields spiked overnight (to unch on month) on stimulus hopes (and a Biden win?) but McConnell poured cold water on it all late on and sent yields lower for the month…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields spiked hard today (perhaps on post-debate Biden-win fears) but reversed perfectly at unch for September around 70bps after McConnell poured cold water on stimulus hopes…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields surged in September (dragging gold lower), but the last couple of days saw some of that reverse…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied in September – its first positive month since March – but note that the USD has reversed in the last few days after tagging key resistance…

Source: Bloomberg

China’s yuan strengthened for the 4th straight month and Q3 was its best quarter since Q1 2008…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin had its worst month since March, unable to bounce back above and hold $11,000…

Source: Bloomberg

But Bitcoin outperformed in September with Litecoin worst…

Source: Bloomberg

But Ethereum was a massive outperformer in Q3…

 

All the major commodities were lower on the month, as the USD rallied, led by silver…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver’s collapse in September was the worst month since September 2011 (note that Silver bounced off its 100DMA in the last few days)…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold dramatically outperformed silver in September (the first since March) as the gold/silver ratio bounced off 70x…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, after an ugly September, history shows that election-year Octobers usually aren’t kind, either. As Bloomberg notes, on average, the S&P 500 has lost 2.5% in October over the past seven election years (since 1992), the worst performance of any month during those years.

Source: Bloomberg

Even excluding the 17% decline during the financial crisis in 2008, October posted an average loss of 0.03% compared with a gain of 1.65% in November, pointing to the risk premiums ahead of the votes.

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

ii)Market data/USA

Final  Q2 GDP barely moves:  it shrank -31.4%

Final Q2 GDP Revision Shows US Economy Shrank -31.4%

In its third estimate of Q2 GDP, the BEA reported moments ago that the largest US economic contraction in history was revised slightly higher, from -31.7% to -31.4%. This in turn was also an improvement from the first estimate of -32.91% which nonetheless is still pretty bad considering nearly a third of the US economy was effectively shut down on an annualized basis.

The revision to GDP reflected an upward revision to consumer spending on services that was partly offset by downward revisions to exports and to business investment in intellectual property products. Specific changes were as follows:

  • Personal Consumption: from -24.76% to -24.01%
  • Fixed Investment: from -5.20% to -5.27%
  • Private Inventories: from -3.46% to -3.50%
  • Net Exports: from 0.90% to 0.62%
  • Government consumption: from 0.82% to 0.77%

The BEA also announced that profits decreased 10.3% Q/Q after plunging 12.0% in the first quarter. Corporate profits decreased 19.3% in the second quarter from one year ago. Some more details:

  • Profits of domestic non-financial corporations decreased 12.9 percent after decreasing 14.4 percent.
  • Profits of domestic financial corporations increased 6.1 percent after decreasing 8.9 percent.
  • Profits from the rest of the world decreased 18.9 percent after decreasing 8.4 percent

Of course, none of the data above matters as it is 3 months stale now. The real question is what will be announced on Oct 29, when the first estimate of Q3 GDP is released and which is expected to be in the 30%+ ballpark, which will make it the strongest annualized GDP growth in US history. The fact that it will come just days before the election will be surely used by Trump.

Personal consumption fell 33.2% in 2Q after falling 6.9% prior quarter

GDP price index fell 1.8% in 2Q after rising 1.4% prior quarter

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

This is not good for the economy:  Dow component Disney firing 28,000 workers

(zerohedge)

The Most Miserable Place On Earth: Disney Firing 28,000 Workers

In what may be the biggest mass layoff in recent history, after the market close Walt Disney unveiled its transformation to the most miserable place on earth, announcing that it would lay off 28,000 workers in its U.S. resort business, in the latest confirmation that the covid pandemic continues to devastate all tourism and communal experiences.

“As heartbreaking as it is to take this action, this is the only feasible option we have in light of the prolonged impact of Covid-19 on our business,” Josh D’Amaro, the chairman of the parks division, said in a memo to workers.

The cuts span across the company’s various businesses including theme parks, cruise ships and retail businesses, Disney said on Tuesday. While the layoffs also include executive, they are focusing on part-time workers: 67% of those getting a pink slip are part-time workers.

As part of its farewell package, Disney will offer benefits to the workers being cut, including 90 days of severance.

The mass layoffs follow the furloughing of a massive 43,000 workers in April, when the company was first impacted by the covid pandemic.

In July, Disney triumphantly reopened several of its shuttered parks, including in Florida, although visits were a fraction of their pre-covid levels. Disney still hasn’t received clearance to restart operations at its two theme parks in Anaheim, California.

Before the pandemic, Disney’s domestic parks alone employed more than 100,000.

And while one can “understand” the plight of management, which is scrambling to boost cash flow after it saddled the company with record debt in recent years…

… it probably would make all those soon-to-be-laid off workers feel a little bit better if most of that newly issued debt hadn’t gone to pay for stock buybacks the benefited upper management.

Disney stock dropped on the news because it appears that buybacks won’t be coming back any time soon.

end

And now we see more corporate layoffs after Disney as Shell and Continental announce mass firings

(zerohedge)

Flurry Of Corporate Layoffs Continue As Disney, Shell, & Continental Announce Mass Firings 

As we look ahead to the last jobs report before the Nov. 3 US election, a growing number of corporations across various hard-hit industries are announcing tens of thousands of layoffs, as ‘PPP’ employment restrictions expire and the financial backlash from COVID-19 continues to ravage corporations and households.

Already this week, Royal Dutch Shell, Continental Airlines, Dow Chemicals, and Marathon Petroleum have announced restructuring plans that involve laying off tens of thousands of workers. Yesterday, Disney announced plans to eliminate 28,000 jobs as most of its theme parks remain closed, and the movie business remains effectively shuttered.

Royal Dutch Shell announced Wednesday morning, a new layoff program to cut upwards of 9,000 jobs, or about 10% of its workforce, as the oil major overhauls its oil and gas segments to low-carbon energy.

The Anglo-Dutch company said it would cut between 7,000 to 9,000 workers by the end of 2022. The total includes around 1,500 workers who have already agreed to leave the company this year.

The reductions are a move by Shell to decrease its corporate footprint and save costs as it transitions into low-carbon energy.

“Reduced organisational complexity, along with other measures, are expected to deliver sustainable annual cost savings of between $2.0 to $2.5 billion by 2022. This will partially contribute to the announced underlying operating cost reduction of $3.0 to $4.0 billion by the first quarter of 2021. Job reductions of 7,000 to 9,000 are expected (including around 1,500 people who have agreed to take voluntary redundancy this year) by the end of 2022,” the company said in a press release.

In a statement, Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said, “We have to be a simpler, more streamlined, more competitive organization that is more nimble and able to respond to customers.”

“Make no mistake: this is an extremely tough process. It is very painful to know that you will end up saying goodbye to quite a few good people,” van Beurden added.

As for Shell’s oil and gas production, there was a noticeable sharp drop in output to about 3.04 million barrels of oil equivalent per day due to the decline in demand because of the virus pandemic and a busy hurricane season in the US Gulf Coast that forced offshore platforms to halt operations.

On Wednesday, oil continues to slump, extending losses from Tuesday, following new worries that rising global coronavirus cases could result in lower demand for crude products. Shell’s move reflects the challenge oil majors are facing as the virus pandemic persists.

“Shell is exploring ways to reduce spending on oil and gas production, its largest division known as upstream, by 30% to 40% through cuts in operating costs and capital spending on new projects,” sources told Reuters in early September.

We noted, in late June, Shell wrote down up to $22 billion worth of assets and warned about the “impact of COVID-19 and the ongoing challenging commodity price environment.”

As for Shell’s net-zero carbon emission ambitions by 2050, well, Van Beurden said, oil and gas would still be produced by that date, but it would mostly sell low-carbon electricity, low-carbon biofuels, and hydrogen.

“We have to be net-zero in all our operations, which means major changes at refineries, chemicals sites, on-shore and offshore production facilities. But it also means that we have to change the type of products that we sell,” he added.

Bloomberg quoted Barclays Plc analyst Lydia Rainforth’s latest research note that said Shell’s transformation to a “leaner and lower-carbon organization is the right” plan, but the “macro environment is still challenging, this may take some time to reflect in the share price.”

And now, thousands of aviation layoffs loom as a dysfunctional Congress has yet to make meaningful progress in passing the next round of stimulus, and its concomitant bailout of the airline industry.

end

Pay attention to Stephen Roach…….he warns of a collapsing dollar

Schiff/Roach

Yale Economist Warns Of Looming Dollar Collapse

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter Schiff has been warning about a looming dollar collapse. During an appearance on Fox Business in July, Peter said the dollar isn’t just going down, it’s going to crash.

“I think the dollar is going to keep drifting down until it collapses,” Peter said.

“And this is going to usher in a real economic crisis in America, unlike something we’ve ever seen.

Peter is not alone. In a recent article published on SCMP.com, Yale economist Stephen Roach said he expects the dollar to plunge by as much as 35% next year.

Roach lists three factors he thinks will ultimately doom the dollar.

This reflects three considerations:

  1. the rapid deterioration in macroeconomic imbalances in the United States,
  2. the ascendancy of the euro and renminbi as alternatives, and
  3. the end of the aura of American exceptionalism that has given the dollar Teflon-like resilience for most of the post-World War II era.”

Roach called the confluence of an erosion in domestic savings and the current account deficit “nothing short of staggering.”

The national savings rate has entered negative territory for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, coming in at -1% in the second quarter. According to Roach, a temporary surge in personal savings due to the pandemic and government stimulus checks has been more than outweighed by a record expansion in the federal budget deficit.

With the federal budget deficit exploding towards 16% of gross domestic product this financial year, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the savings plunge is only a hint of what lies ahead. This will trigger a collapse in the US current-account deficit. Lacking savings and wanting to invest and grow, the US must import surplus savings and run massive external deficits to attract foreign capital.”

A current account deficit occurs when the value of the goods and services a country imports exceeds the value of its exports. We’re already seeing signs of that the current-account deficit is widening. It came in at 3.5% of GDP in Q2 – the worst since the 4.3% deficit in the fourth quarter of 2008. Not only that, the quarter to quarter decline charted the largest deterioration since recordkeeping began in 1960.

Roach noted that the Federal Reserve will exacerbate the rapidly destabilizing savings and current-account imbalances with its zero percent interest rate policies and its “average 2% inflation” targeting.  In simple terms, the Fed is committed to holding interest rates low, even if inflation gets hot.

This new bias towards monetary accommodation effectively closes off an important option – upwards adjustments to interest rates – that has long tempered currency declines in most economies. By default, that puts even more pressure on the falling dollar as the escape valve from America’s rapidly deteriorating macroeconomic imbalances. In short, the vice is tightening on a still-overvalued dollar. Domestic savings are plunging as never before, and the current-account balance is following suit. Don’t expect the Fed, focused more on supporting equity and bond markets than on leaning against inflation, to save the day. The dollar’s decline has only just begun.”

end
No deal yet: McConnell states that they are very far apart
(zerohedge)

Stocks Slide After McConnell Says “Very, Very Far Apart” On Stimulus Bill

Update: It looks like the Mnuchin-Pelosi meeting is also over, and was a dud:

  • *MNUCHIN HAS LEFT PELOSI OFFICE
  • *MNUCHIN IS NOW WITH MCCONNELL

* * *

In a day where stocks soared higher, reversing the overnight post-debate drop, following conciliatory comments from White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, moments ago Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell poured cold water on the rally saying the Senate and House are “very, very far apart” on stimulus talks, making it clear the Senate would not come up to $2.2 trillion after earlier saying the Democrats had a poison pill in the bill likely referring to the nearly $500 billion in state and local stimulus which has been a non-starter for Senate republicans.

The negative response in stocks was immediate.

The reversal comes following some optimism earlier when Mark Meadows had said there has been “substantial movement from both sides” on the stimulus bill, noting that  “I dont know that today has to be the drop dead deadline but, there are enough numbers and facts to have to discuss that hopefully it makes for a more meaningful conversation.”

Earlier in the day, Politico reported that House Democrats are pressing ahead with their own new coronavirus aid package — without GOP support — as Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House make a last-gasp attempt to strike a deal before the election.

Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met in the Capitol on Wednesday afternoon, their first in-person sitdown in weeks after days of calls, under immense pressure to reach a bipartisan agreement that extends a financial lifeline to tens of millions of increasingly desperate Americans.

But Pelosi and her top Democrats said on a private call Wednesday morning that the House could vote as soon as that afternoon on their own $2.2 trillion package, if the two sides remain too apart from a deal. The biggest sticking points, Pelosi said, were still state and local aid and liability protections for businesses and workers impacted by the coronavirus.

Walking into Pelosi’s office, Mnuchin wouldn’t speculate on the chances of a deal after weeks of stalled talks.

“I don’t know we’ll see,” he told reporters. “Going to see the speaker, see if we can make some good progress today.”

Of course, even if the House passes the bill, it is dead in the Senate without McConnell’s blessing. And so the fingerpointing between Democrats and Republicans over who is responsible for the lack of a much needed 5th stimulus bill, begin anew.

New York City
New York City is hurt by a surge in bankruptcies
(zerohedge)

NYC Hammered By 40% Bankruptcy Surge, Braces For Next Wave 

While Wall Street panic buys stocks again, on hopes Washington can pass the next round of much-needed economic stimulus, the broader commercial real estate market continues to implode and nowhere more so than the epicenter in New York City, where nearly 6,000 business closures, has resulted in a 40% eruption in bankruptcy filings across business districts of all five boroughs this year, reported Bloomberg.

Al Togut, a bankruptcy lawyer who has handled insolvencies for small firms to mega-corporations, said, “by late fall, there will be an avalanche of bankruptcies … When the cold weather comes, that’s when we’ll start to see a surge in bankruptcies in New York City.”

The coming wave of business closings, as explained in Old Man Winter To Plunge Restaurants Into Further Chaos,” is set to crush eateries and other small businesses in NYC ahead of the holiday season.

“It’s a crisis, and we need to act—our economy can’t recover without saving small businesses,” said NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, a candidate in next year’s mayoral election.

“When they close, we don’t just lose our beloved Main Street businesses. We lose jobs, tax revenue and the economic backbone of our city,” Stringer said.

The Partnership for New York City, a nonprofit membership organization of NYC’s top businesses, warned the virus pandemic could permanently close a third of the 230,000 businesses across all five boroughs.

Bankruptcy filings in the region have skyrocketed since the middle of March, when the state of New York reported its first deaths from Covid-19 and Governor Andrew Cuomo closed all nonessential businesses. There were 610 filings in the Southern and Eastern Districts of New York from March 16 to Sept. 27, according to court records. That’s a 40 percent jump from the same period in 2019 and the most by far for any year since the financial crisis. The districts include some nearby counties.

Almost 6,000 New York City businesses closed from March 1 to Sept. 11, according to Yelp, the website of user reviews. Over 4,000 of those closed permanently.

The carnage has been demoralizing after decades in which the city fought back from the brink of bankruptcy, the scourges of crack cocaine and violent crime, terrorist attacks and recession. The pandemic hit as the city had achieved record high employment and low crime. – Bloomberg

The effects of the pandemic are still being felt in late September, as only 15% of NYC’s 1.2 million office workers had returned, according to the Partnership for New York City. None of this suggests NYC’s recovery will be “V” shaped.

“Retail and real estate will continue to decline in New York until you can reignite the office traffic,” warned Joseph Malfitano, who advised Brooks Brothers and the parent company of Ann Taylor in their bankruptcies earlier this year.

Vin McCann, a restaurant consultant, said once temperatures dip in the city, the next wave of restaurant closures will be seen.

“Once you hit below 60 degrees… I would bet you that between 25 and 50 percent of restaurants in New York City will not come back,” said McCann.

The city’s Department of Small Business Services received about 35,000 requests from businesses since June and has allocated nearly 4,000 grants, totaling about $80 million, to business owners struggling to survive the virus-induced economic downturn.

“A third of our small businesses could be closed if we don’t have a strong recovery,” said Jonnel Doris, the department’s commissioner. “The fate of small businesses will determine the fate of the city.”

This is particularly troubling, considering the spillover of closures is beginning to pressure the commercial real estate market in the city.

end
THE DEBATE

“Will You Shut Up Man?” – Debate Post-Mortem: Trump Dominant But Biden Better Than Expected

And just like that it’s over…

It was contentious, for sure; but here is a quick summary of the performance:

  • SCOTUS – Trump won by TKO
  • COVID – Biden won, but close.
  • Economy – A tie
  • Race – A tie (Trump facts on Biden’s history versus Biden repetitive claims Trump’s a racist but no gotcha)
  • Law And Order – Trump won (Biden unable to get past ‘defund’ and reform)
  • Track Records – Trump won (Biden unable to get past Green New Deal malarkey)
  • Election Integrity – A tie (but we might have given Trump the edge on Coup/recent ballots issues)

Overall, Biden did a lot better than many expected but on policies and straightforward facts, Trump won the first debate comfortably.

CNN’s Wolf Blitzer made it clear what the goal was:

“Clearly this is the most chaotic presidential debate that I have ever seen. That most of you have ever seen I suspect. … I wouldn’t be surprised by the way if this was the last presidential debate between the president of the United States and the former vice president of the United States but we will see.”

*  *  *

Full Debate Post-Mortem

As is usual the evening began with a few hundred protesters, unsure of exactly what they were angrily protesting outside the presidential debate to “dump Trump” and explain that “Black Lives Matter”…

Biden (or whoever was running his Twitter feed) showed some humor right before the debate…

In the 2016 debates, Mexican Peso was the markets’ proxy (falling when Trump did well and rising when Hillary outperformed). It’s not clear what the current market proxy will be – gold?

No handshake – as pre-agreed – at the start…

The first question was on SCOTUS.

President Trump clarified his position: “We won the election. Elections have consequences… We won the election and therefore we have the right to choose her.”

Biden’s response aggressively swung to healthcare and abortion as opposed to the actual process and claimed 100 million Americans would lose healthcare because of ACB.

Biden stumbled early on with his answers and the first gaffe hit – “how many of those who have died from COVID have survived?”

Trump stomped right on him, over-ruling the moderator going directly at Biden’s talking points. Biden stumbled a little but held it together: “I’m not here to call out his lies, everyone knows he’s a liar.”

Trump blasted Biden for pandering to the left and Bernie. Biden responded:  “I am the Democratic party right now.”

The discussion escalated, and the SCOTUS section ended with this:

“Will you shut up, man?” Biden says, as Trump repeatedly taunts “will you pack the court? Will you pack the court?”

Then the debate moved on to COVID.

Biden began by attacking Trump for 200,000 dead and his lack of response. In a stunning moment of irony, Biden claimed Trump “should get out of your bunker, and out of the sand trap, in your golf course.”

“You would have lost far more people,” Trump says, interrupting Biden.

Then the discussion shifted to shutting down the economy: “He wants to shut down this country and I want to keep it open,” Trump says.

The next topic was the economy, and its recovery.

“We built the greatest economy in history, we closed it down because of the China plague,” Trump said, adding that “Joe wants to shut down this Country. I want to keep it OPEN!”

Biden pivoted to the $750 tax issue, but focused on the fact that “you can’t fix the economy until you fix the COVID crisis.”

Moderator Wallace then shifted to ask Trump if he paid $750 in Federal taxes.

Trump slammed Biden by asking what he had done for 47 years?

“You’re the worst president America’s ever had, c’mon.” – Biden to Trump, to which Trump replied: “I’ve done more in 47 months — than you’ve done in 47 years.”

Then the discussion jumped to Biden’s tax plan but the big moment was when Trump pivoted to Hunter Biden asking about the $3.5 million from a Moscow mayor’s wife. Biden denied it, Trump slammed… “He didn’t get three and a half million dollars, Joe?”

Biden claimed that was “totally discredited,” except it hasn’t been. Biden: “my son did nothing wrong at Burisma.”

The issue of race came up next.

Wallace: “Why should voters trust you rather than your opponent to deal with the race issues facing this country over the next four years?”

Biden began by focusing on Charlottesville: “this is a president who has used everything as a dog whistle to try to generate racism — to try to generate racist division.”

Trump went after Biden hard, reminding him of the busing decision, the “super predators” comments:

“He did a crime bill, 1994, where you called them super predators,” Trump says. “You have treated the Black community about as bad as anybody in this country.”

Biden stumbled through trying to say that there is systemic racism in America. Trump emphasized his law-and-order stance.

The topic shifted to Critical Race Theory, and Trump did a good job explaining his position: “They were teaching people to hate our country, and I’m not going to do that, I’m not going to allow that to happen,”

“He’s the racist,” Biden says of Trump.

Then the debate transitioned to Law & Order.

Trump says “Democratic cities” are where the problems have been occurring.

Biden: “I’m in favor of law … Law and order with justice where people are treated fairly.”

“I’m totally opposed to defunding the police budget,” Biden says – well that’s not exactly true is it…

Wallace asks Trump: Are you willing to condemn white supremacists, militia groups?

“Sure, I’m prepared to do that,” Trump says of condemning White supremacists. “Almost everything I see is from the left wing not the right wing.”

“Proud boys — stand back and stand by — but I’ll tell you what somebody’s got to do something about Antifa and the left.”

Biden then claimed that “Antifa is an idea, not an organization.”

“When a bat hits you over the head, that’s not an idea,” Trump says of antifa.

Speechless!

The topic of the candidates’ track records came up next.

“There has never been an administration that has done what I’ve done,” Trump says, “and that’s with the impeachment hoax.”

Trump and Biden got heated as Biden attempted to bring up Beau Biden’s heroism, but Trump pivoted to Hunter and left Biden stumbling.

Climate Change then popped up (presumably on track records)

“We have to do better management of our forests,” Trump says. “Every year, I get the call, ‘California’s burning. California’s burning.’”

In a rather shocking admission, Biden said?: “No, I don’t support the Green New Deal.” Biden then says after asserting: “The Green New Deal will pay for itself as we move forward.”

Does Biden know that Kamala Harris was a cosponsor of the Green New Deal?

And the last topic of the debate was Election Integrity…

“This is going to be a fraud like you’ve never seen,” Trump says of mail-in ballots.

Biden: “If I win, that will be accepted. If I lose that will be accepted.”

Trump also bought up the Obama/Biden coup: “There was no transition. They came after me trying to do a coup.”

*  *  *

It’s over. Now the pundits weighing in.

Finally, we can’t leave the post-mortem without commenting on Wallace’s performance. While Trump did try his usual bullying, Wallace repeatedly steeped on Trump’s responses to Biden

Which gave us an idea…

Time for a beer… or five!

END

a MUST READ…

With Surprise Ratings Plunge, Do Debates Even Matter In This Election?

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

Last night’s debate was universally panned as many things not suitable for virgin ears. Honestly, I don’t disagree.

I had no plans on watching it because they are almost always uninteresting, low-information theater. Last night was no exception.

Both camps are doing their best to put the best spin on it they can but a couple of observations I think are salient:

  1. Biden was as good as he was ever going to be
  2. Trump was as bad as he could possibly have been
  3. Chris Wallace was there to make sure Biden stayed on script
  4. The format and questions were all softballs for Biden

In that context here’s the big question for partisans (of which I’m one), “Do these debates even matter?” And my cynical answer is, “No. They don’t.”

But the more nuanced one is that yes, they do. They matter for one important reason.

People don’t vote based on what candidates say but how they say them.

That’s why televised debates are such an important part of a campaign and why they can be turning points in an election.

Jonathan Haidt in his book, The Righteous Mind, laid out a metaphor for how the brain processes information and communicates it to the world.

It boils down to the Elephant and the Rider.

Your hindbrain or right-brain is the Elephant. It’s the unconscious mind which makes all the real decisions.

The Rider is the forebrain or left-brain and it’s like the press secretary for the Elephant. It thinks it’s in charge, puling on the reins of what it’s convinced itself is a quarter-horse directing your behavior and your decisions.

It tells you, and more importantly the world, that you’re rational and that you are consciously in control of your decisions.

But the reality is The Rider sits on top of The Elephant who is charging ahead because it’s already made its decision.

The Rider then just makes up why as The Elephant tramples forward.

Why is this important to the debates?

This is, in essence, why debates matter. Elephants vote.

And this take on last night’s “shitshow” is the correct one.

There is an army of DNC operatives out there today trying to tell you that Trump lost the debate or that he lied and here are the fact-checks to prove it and all that rotten nonsense.

Those are riders desperately talking to those whose elephants already decided they hate Trump for whatever reason they have. Trump Derangement Syndrome is real.

It won’t change one vote.

What Trump did last night was to project competence and strength. His best moments were when he looked at Biden and said, “Joe what are you talking about? I just had this guy in my office last week….”

Those moments translate to the Elephants on all sides of the political spectrum that Trump is in control of his office, is informed and despite all of his faults as a person is right on top of the issues.

This is strength of leadership. It’s alpha male stuff. Trump made the case loud and clear in the first 30 minutes of the debate that he is President, does the job well, and won’t apologize for running the country the way he does.

In a time when there’s crazy violence in the streets, millions unemployed and rightfully worried about tomorrow not ten years from now, that’s pretty much all he had to do.

All Biden could do was mumble about raising taxes and being fearful of more COVID-19.

Elephants look at that and see weakness not leadership.

All the talk about decorum and shouting over each other is irrelevant. Decorum is for dinner parties. People tune in to the debates to decide who will lead them not who will play by some arbitrary set of rules.

And the more Chris Wallace tried to put Trump in his place the more obvious it was to everyone’s Elephant that this was not a level playing field.

Now, as far as this election goes we may not need anymore of this events for one simple reason. Ratings.

The ratings for the 2016 debates were record-setting. They needed to be. So few people had actually seen more than a sound-byte of Trump that they needed to tune in to allow their Elephants to get a measure of him.

By the end of the first debate Trump went from Nazi to ‘pretty ok’ in a lot of voters’ minds.

By the end of the last debate and the five words that won him the election, Trump sealed the deal with millions of undecided Elephants. He moved them with those words and that pugnacious attitude he has.

This adds to an observation I saw on Twitter yesterday about the ratings which struck my Elephant as correct.

Brian may not like what I’m about to report.

The poor ratings for last night’s debate tell me that there are a lot of Elephants out there that didn’t need reassuring.

The first presidential debate of 2020 was widely panned by most observers — and is on track to draw a far smaller audience than the record-setting first debate four years ago.

Fast national ratings for the broadcast networks show the debate gathering 28.82 million viewers across ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox — a decline of 36 percent from 2016. Four years ago, the big four networks tallied 45.3 million viewers in the preliminary ratings, rising to 49.33 million after time zone adjustments for the live broadcast.

And if that CBS Poll is an anomaly in this election cycle, namely that it’s in any way accurate, then there is little need to go forward with any more of these because it only gets worse for Joe Biden from here…

…no matter what the Riders in the Twitterati have to say about it.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if your Elephant isn’t asleep at the wheel. Install the Brave Browser if you want to take Google’s Rider off your Elephant

END

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Voter fraud in Philadelphia : they will not let observers are denied entry and check that everything was kosher.
(zerohedge)

President Trump’s “fraudulent” rantings about voter fraud will likely be featured in Tuesday night’s debate against Joe Biden, which marks the first time the two men, who have traded threats to throw down with their fists on more than one occasion, will face off on stage. And while the NYT and its allies in the Democratic Party and on cable news have been pushing the scoop about Trump’s tax returns, conservative blogs are simultaneously sharing a story about GOP poll watchers being refused from “early voting stations” in Philadelphia, a city that’s dominated by Democratic politicians.

On Tuesday, the city of Brotherly Love opened 15 new satellite offices

According to the Gateway Pundit, Trump observers are being denied entry to the satellite voting locations across the city, according to Mike Roman, an election official for the Trump Campaign

Officials told reporters that the closures were related to an issue with the city’s voter database.

Details are pretty vague at the moment, but President Trump just elevated the issue by tweeting about the story.

 
END

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Kudlow Says White House Is Ready To Make Deal on Aspects of Coronoavirus Relief That Have Bipartisan Support – BBG

Mnuchin, Pelosi speak on coronavirus relief, plan further talks: Pelosi spokesman

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi spoke for about 50 minutes on Tuesday in an effort to reach a compromise on coronavirus relief legislation, and they plan further talks on Wednesday, a spokesman for Pelosi said… In an interview with CNBC, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow made clear that the White House views that figure [$2.2 trillion] as too high…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-congress-idUSKBN26K2L8

Pelosi, Mnuchin renew talks as Democrats release $2.2 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill

The new legislation would: Reinstate the $600 per week enhanced unemployment benefit through January

  • Send a second $1,200 direct payment to most Americans
  • Give $436 billion in relief over one year to state and local governments
  • Authorize more money for a second round of Paycheck Protection Program loans for the hardest-hit businesses and industries
  • Send $25 billion to airlines to cover payroll costs
  • Inject $75 billion into Covid-19 testing and contact tracing efforts
  • Put $225 billion into education and $57 billion into child care
  • Set aside billions for rental and mortgage assistance

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/29/pelosi-mnuchin-set-to-talk-as-.html

Democrats’ New $2.2 Trillion COVID Stimulus Includes the Word ‘Cannabis’ 68 Times — Mentioned More than Jobs – During the press conference, Pelosi defended marijuana related-legislation, saying it needs to be in the next package…

https://dailycaller.com/2020/09/29/democrats-coronavirus-stimulus-cannabis/

Disney to layoff 28,000 employees as coronavirus slams its theme park business https://t.co/L23JdMXsXA

James Todaro, MD @JamesTodaroMD: It’s mind boggling that institutional “experts” fight to the death advocating cloth/surgical masks while affirming that coronavirus is transmitted in aerosols (droplets <5 μm). If masks were effective against aerosols, why hasn’t decades of research on the flu shown this?

Dr. Urso @richardursomd: Masks don’t work for viruses… There are over 100 studies that have failed to show benefit. Only fake studies and analysis from this year show otherwise.

Trump camp seeks extra debate rule: Third party inspectors to look for electronic devices in candidates’ ears – The president has consented to this kind of inspection, but Biden has not, so far, sources said…Biden campaign asking for two breaks during the 90 minute commercial free showdown        A Trump campaign source told Fox News that “our guy doesn’t need breaks. He gives 90-minute speeches all the time.”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-third-party-inspect-ears-electronic-devices

Pictures surfaced last week that shows Biden wearing a flesh-colored earpiece.

https://twitter.com/atensnut/status/1308160093192679427

NY Post’s @ebonybowden: Joe Biden’s campaign agreed to an inspection for electronic ear pieces at tonight’s debate several days ago but are now declining, a source familiar tells me.

@seanmdav: Regardless of how Biden performs, seal-clapper media will immediately tell us he was “sharp,” “clearly in command of the details,” “forceful,” and “energetic,” and that Biden’s performanceevoked his “tour de force takedown of Paul Ryan in 2012.”

Biden released his 2019 tax report hours before the debate to show that he paid $288k in taxes.  Unfortunately for Joe, the report shows he only gave 1.5% of his income to charity.

Joe Biden Gave 1.5% of Income to Charity in 2019; Trump Gave Entire Salary to Government https://t.co/a9H02MJzo6

US intel referred Clinton campaign to FBI, alleging it concocted Russia collusion story

US intelligence believed Clinton plot to ‘stir up a scandal’ was a ‘means of distracting the public from her use of a private mail server  

   U.S. intelligence developed evidence from Russia in summer 2016 that Hillary Clinton had personally approved a plan to concoct the Russia collusion narrative in an effort to harm Donald Trump and distract from her email scandal, according to an explosive document made public Tuesday by the Director of National Intelligence… [‘Accuse others of what you are doing!’]

https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/us-intel-referred-clinton-campaign-fbi-alleging-it

DNI Radcliffe’s letter to Sen. Lindsey Graham:  https://twitter.com/ArthurSchwartz/status/1311018657263345664

We reported about 4 years ago, that Russia, China and others had Hillary’s passwords and were watching her emails in real time – and the NSA watched Russia in real time watching Hillary in real time.

Clinton practically handed her email password to the Russians      July 25, 2016

The Russians didn’t hack into Hillary Clinton’s private e-mail server… according to a very reliable source of mine who has connections with US intelligence agencies. They didn’t have to.  Clinton was so careless when using her BlackBerry that the Russians stole her password. All Russian President Vladimir Putin’s gang had to do was log into Clinton’s account and read whatever they wanted…  https://nypost.com/2016/07/25/clinton-practically-handed-her-email-password-to-the-russians/

Ex-CIA operative @T_S_P_O_O_K_Y: And what the letter shows that is MOST significant is that Barack Obama and the national security team knew that the Russian info was correct then took actions to COVER UP the Hillary Clinton involvement in the Steele Dossier

@CBS_Herridge: @LindseyGrahamSC tells @CBSNews that he is working to declassify notes cited in

@DNI_Ratcliffe letter to the fullest extent possible + he questions whether the Sept 2016 “investigative referral” to FBI about an alleged effort by the Clinton campaign to distract from the FBI email probe, was run to ground to determine credibility with same attention, intensity + resources as allegations against the Trump team. Separately, CBS is told the notes were turned up by US attorney Durham + opened a new track in his probe. 

@ProfMJCleveland: Let me simplify this for folks:  Obama, Biden, Comey, Brennan, and Strzok, had evidence “Russia collusion” was a political plot by Hillary and yet they launched probe & kept it going into Trump administration after clear evidence no collusion.

There will be a steady drip of incriminating declassifications between now and the election.

After bashing and mocking Amy Coney Barrett for her Catholicism for several days, Democrats and the MSM suddenly have abandoned that tactic.  Their internal polling must have alarmed Dems.

Pelosi: ‘It Doesn’t Matter’ What Religion Amy Coney Barrett Believes In

“It doesn’t matter what her faith is, what religion she believes in. What matters is does she believe in the Constitution of the United States,” said Pelosi during an interview on CNN’s “State of Union,” when asked about Democrats’ criticism that Barrett’s Catholic faith might influence her court decisions…

https://t.co/iLWFdETSQl

Amy Coney Barrett disavowed by feminists for non-compliance

Barrett is a mom, and sees that calling as higher than anything else. She’s a woman who is guided by faith, while contemporary feminism decries Christianity as misogynistic and repressive. But the worst sin of all is that Barrett is not on board with abortion…

    In 2016, Barrett said on abortion: “I think don’t think the core case—Roe’s core holding that, you know, women have a right to an abortion—I don’t think that would change. But I think the question of whether people can get very late-term abortions, how many restrictions can be put on clinics—I think that would change.”…

https://amp.thepostmillennial.com/amy-coney-barrett-disavowed-by-feminists-for-non-compliance/

Most pro-choice adults oppose late-term abortion, denying newborns care: Poll

Among all adults surveyed: 79 percent rejected late-term abortion, and 80 percent opposed day-before-birth abortion…  https://apnews.com/article/dec1f82c4c630cb97ab7cefc58cf0866

The above poll and Barrett’s 2016 statements is the reason the Dems and the MSM are now attacking Barrett by saying she would repeal Obamacare.

Schumer won’t meet with Trump’s Supreme Court pick http://hill.cm/36otIrv

Dem Senators Harino, Blumenthal and Gillibrand have also stated they will not meet with Barrett.

Thousands of mail ballots returned to Collier County [Florida] election office

There are more than 5000 ballots that are considered undeliverable…  

https://nbc-2.com/news/2020/09/28/thousands-of-mail-ballots-returned-to-collier-county-election-office/

OAN’s @CSinclairtv: About 100,000 voters in Brooklyn, NY will be sent new ballots after receiving absentee ballots with FALSE names and addresses on mail-back envelopes

@realDonaldTrump: Wow. Won’t let Poll Watchers & Security into Philadelphia Voting Places. There is only one reason why. Corruption!!! Must have a fair Election.

end

THE DEBATE

@PollWatch2020: Terrible job by Chris Wallace tonight. No words for his shameful performance.

Fox’s @kilmeade: Looks like 2 v1 at times tonight [Slamming his Fox teammate Wallace] You can’t say @JoeBiden showed class and @realDonaldTrump did not… Biden said shut up, worst president ever, clown, racist [Fox’s Laura Ingraham also criticized Wallace.]

Chris Wallace Faces Intense Backlash, Including From Colleagues, Over Bias during Debate

https://www.dailywire.com/news/chris-wallace-faces-intense-backlash-including-from-colleagues-over-bias-during-debate

Ex-Fox reporter @adamhousley: I didn’t realize we had a 3 person debate. This whole thing is a mess.

ABC’s George Stephanopoulos: “That was the worst debate I have ever seen.”

CNN’s Dana Bash calls first presidential debate a ‘s—show’   https://trib.al/I0HcDEy

CNN’s Jake Tapper on the debate: “That was a hot mess. Inside a dumpster fire. Inside a train wreck. That was the worst debate I have ever seen. It wasn’t even a debate. It was a disgrace… One thing for sure, the American people lost. Tonight. That was horrific.”

https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1311134769070198784

@seanmdav: That was the single worst presidential debate moderation in American history.

     Chris Wallace is now reading Biden’s energy plan back to him to remind Biden what’s in his plan. I have never, never seen anything like this from a moderator.

‘I Guess I’m Debating You, Not Him … I’m Not Surprised’: Trump Slams Chris Wallace Minutes into First Presidential Debate

https://dailycaller.com/2020/09/29/donald-trump-slams-chris-wallace-first-presidential-debate-joe-biden/

@bennyjohnson: This is the most egregious media bias I’ve ever seen. Makes Candy Crowley look like an independent

Actor @RealJamesWoods: President Trump crushed his opponent Chris Wallace head to head in the debate. There was also another fellow wandering around muttering to himself.

@Peoples_Pundit: Hey @BretBaier, how exactly are you going to praise Chris Wallace after this disaster?  Congratulations, @FoxNews.  This is the disservice and disinformation debate. It’s going down in infamy.

@TrumpWarRoom: Chris Wallace only interrupted Joe Biden 15 times. Wallace interrupted President Trump 76 times! #Debates2020

Chris Wallace and Joe Biden Repeat Charlottesville ‘Very Fine People Hoax’ at Pres… Debate

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/09/29/fact-check-chris-wallace-and-joe-biden-repeat-charlottesville-very-fine-people-hoax-at-debate/

Pundits on CNN and MSNBC suggested that Biden should not do anymore debates.  That’s all you need to know about how the debate went.

Trump antagonist @megynkelly: Dems already saying there shouldn’t be any more debates. Not a chance they cancel the others. Can you imagine how weak Biden would look?

WH Spokeswoman @kayleighmcenany: “Should there be anymore debates?” the Liberal, Biden-loving Fake News Media suddenly asks in unison. That is NOT a question you ask if your candidate wins!

@danielggarza: Spanish speaking viewers of Telemundo expressed their preference of who won tonight’s presidential debate: 66% Trump 34% Biden. #DebateTuesday

https://twitter.com/danielggarza/status/1311139548706074626

WGN [Chicago]: Trump 60, Biden 40; CSPAN: Trump 56.1, Biden 27.2; CNN: 60% Biden, 28% Trump [Considering the CNN audience is overwhelmingly rabidly anti-Trump…]

https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1311134050644615168

News Nation Now: Trump 60%, Biden 30%

https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/1311157517792284672/photo/1

@Peoples_Pundit: Here is what a lot of you are missing. What we’re calling the “decency” argument Joe Biden has been leading with has had some appeal. Clearly our polls show it. Donald Trump is what he is. He doesn’t pretend. Tonight, Biden was not the “decent” guy he’s been pretending to be.

Consensus from neutral-ish pundits: Trump was too strident; Biden too weak and he offered no solid policies; Trump got Biden to go on record on issues Joe has avoided that could splitter his base: Joe rescinded his support for the Green Deal; Trump goaded Joe into name calling, insults and rude remarks.

Joe Biden says he does not back Green New Deal during presidential debate

Trump quickly cut in with, “Oh, you don’t? Well, that’s a big statement. That means you just lost the radical left. It’s gone.”… https://trib.al/13ULWXr

Biden at the debate: “ANTIFA is an idea not an organization.”

@abigailmarone: Kamala Harris has done multiple interviews tonight in an attempt to clean up Biden’s disastrous performance. In every single interview she REFUSED to say whether or not a Harris-Biden admin would support court packing.

@CBSNews: @jdickerson asks @KamalaHarris about Joe Biden not answering debate question on supporting court packing.  She says Biden is focused on “what is actually happening right now” with Supreme Court vacancy, “and the unfairness of it and the hypocrisy” https://cbsnews.com/live-updates/t

@Barnes_Law: Fascinating watching media class totally baffled at why ordinary people don’t react negatively to #Trump’s debate style. The reason is simple: it’s how ordinary people argue w/ each other. They expect it. Do you ever argue w/ your partner by saying: “ok, now it’s your 2 minutes”?

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

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