SEPT 29//GOLD WITHSTANDS EARLY ATTACK BY BANKERS AND THEN CLIMBS UP $19.10 TO $1897.20//SILVER REVERSES COURSE AND IT UP A POWERFUL 86 CENTS TO $24.35// FINAL TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT: 15.3 TONNES//A HUGE 52.4 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER//JPMORGAN FINALLY RECEIVES ITS 1 BILLION FINE AND IT INCLUDES: A) RACKETEERING B) SPOOFING////CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//THE BIG DEBATE TONIGHT//HUGE SWAMP STORY USA INTELLIGENCE INVESTIGATED HILLARY CLINTON FOR CORRUPT RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION AND SUPPLIED THIS TO OBAMA: WOW!// MORE SWAMP STORIES AS WELL TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1897.20 UP  $19.10   The quote is London spot price

 

 

 

 

 

Silver:$24.35 UP  $0.86   London spot price ( cash market)

Comex options expiry is now over and the bankers made out like bandits again.  We still have to deal with the bigger options expiry on Wednesday Sept 30 at 10 am-11 am est

October is going to be a dandy delivery month. October OI is extremely high at 34,567

 

We will keep you abreast  on that.

 

 

 

 

 

comex option expiry FRIDAY: Sept 25

LBMA/OTC options expiry:  Sept 30

 

 

they tried last night to raid but the demand was just too great…

It is going to be an interesting week…

 

your data…

 

Closing access prices:  London spot

 

i)Gold : $1897.50  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

ii)SILVER:  $24.17//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation.

 

 

CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

 

 

OCT GOLD:  1894.30  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /: $$3.10 BACKWARD//  VERY CHEAP@!! THIS IS A MAGNET TO ATTRACT THOSE WILLING TO PURCHASE AND THEN TAKE DELIVERY OF METAL.

 

 

 

DEC. GOLD  $1903.40   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $5.20/ CONTANGO   ( $0.80 BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO) //allows for exch. for physical to be issued at lower cost.

 

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

 

SILVER SEPT COMEX CLOSE;   $24.33…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 2 CENTS BACKWARD//)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $24.39  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       :   4  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO (   2 CENTS BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO)

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

COMEX DATA

 

 

 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today:  13/16

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,872.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/28/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 09/30/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 8 1
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 5
661 H JP MORGAN 13
690 C ABN AMRO 2
905 C ADM 1 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 16 16
MONTH TO DATE: 4,938

 

issued:  0

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  SEPT CONTRACT: 16 NOTICE(S) FOR 1600 OZ  (0.0497 tonnes)

 

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  4938 NOTICES FOR 493800 OZ  (15.359 tonnes) 

 

 

SILVER

 

 

47 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 235,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 11,080 for 55.400 MILLION oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $10,770 up 74 dollars

 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:  $10,747  UP 49 DOLLARS .

 

 

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $19.10  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

 

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

 

 

GLD: 1,268.89 TONNES OF GOLD//

 

WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS  TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

 

SLV: 550.791  MILLION OZ./

 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG 1198 CONTRACTS FROM 153,293 UP TO 154,491, AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.48 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE  GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO CONSIDERABLE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING..  COUPLED AGAINST A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT.  WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1548 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A TINY  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  200, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  SEP 0;  DEC:  200, MARCH  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  200 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

 

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE $0.48) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (1398 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE GAIN IN OI WAS DUE TO BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A VERY STRONG INCREASE IN SILVER OZ STANDING  FOR SEPTEMBER, 3) STRONG COMEX GAIN AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF SEPT:

14,187 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 14,187 CONTRACTS) OR 70.935 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 709 CONTRACTS OR 3.546 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT: 70.93 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 10.13% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

 

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,449.63 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                70.93 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1398, WITH OUR  $0.48 RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAY.…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 200 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

 

 

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 1398 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $0.48 RISE IN PRICE)//

 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 200 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 1,198 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.48 RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $23.49 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.772 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 110% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW AUGUST  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 47 NOTICE(S) FOR 235,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

 

 

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/ MARCH: 27.120 MILLION OZ/  APRIL AT 3.875 MILLION OZ/ A MAY:  18.845 MILLION OZ ..JUNE 2.660 MILLION OZ//JULY 22.605 MILLION OZ; AUGUST 10.025 MILLION OZ/ SEPT 43.030 MILLION OZ//OCT: 7.665 MILLION OZ//   NOV: 2.630 MILLION OZ//DEC:  20.970 MILLION OZ; JAN:  5.075 MILLION OZ.//FEB 1.480 MILLION OZ//MAR: 23.005 MILLION OZ/APRIL 4.660 MILLION OZ//MAY  45.220 MILLION OZ//JUNE: 2.205 MILLION OZ// JULY 86.470 million oz//AUGUST 6.475 MILLION OZ//SEPT. 55.400 MILLION OZ//
  2. THE  RECORD PRIOR TO TODAY WAS SET IN FEB 25/2018:  244,710 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $18.90//.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017 RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

 

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

 

GOLD

 

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED 2911 CONTRACTS TO 562,019 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OURSTRONG GAIN IN PRICE  OF $14.30 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY. WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE CLOSING PHASE OF  SPREADER LIQUIDATION. THE BIG STORY IS THE HUGE OI THAT ARE STILL STANDING FOR OCTOBER..//WE PROBABLY HAD SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING. BASICALLY, NOBODY OF IMPORTANCE HAS LEFT THE GOLD ARENA.  WE ALSO HAD A SMALL ADVANCE IN TONNAGE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPTEMBER ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $14.30

 

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  86//

 

 

WE HAD A SMALL GAIN 4192 CONTRACTS  (13.03 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS WE ENTER OTC/LBMA  OPTIONS EXPIRY!!

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1201 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . OCT: 0 DEC: 1201; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1201.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 562,019. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4192 CONTRACTS: 2991 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1201 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 4192 CONTRACTS OR 13.03 TONNES.

 

 

 

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1201) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (2991 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4191 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)A SMALL ADVANCE IN  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT SEPT. MONTH,  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ;4) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND 6) CONTINUAL SPREADER LIQUIDATION... AND HUGE PURCHASES OF OCTOBER 2020 GOLD CONTRACTS//  AND  ...ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//MONDAY//$14.30.

 

 

 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

 

 

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS//OUTLINE

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON OCT  1)

 

 

OUR SPREADING OPERATION HAS NOW SWITCHED INTO GOLD…..

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

 

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

 

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF OCT.

 

 

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

 

 

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

 

 

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT FOR GOLD:

 

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF SEPT. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

 

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT.

 

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 55,112, CONTRACTS OR 5,511,200 oz OR 171,42 TONNES (20 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2755 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 171.42 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 171.42/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.890% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,555,96  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE EXTREMELY LOW)

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       171.42 TONNES (EFP’s AGAIN RISING DUE TO BACKWARDATION/LOWER FUTURE PREMIUMS//THUS LESS COST TO CARRY)

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1198 CONTRACTS FROM 153,292, UP TO 154,491 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1)    SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING  , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL GAIN  IN OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR SEPT., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ALONG WITH OUR STRONG OCTOBER ADVANCE.

 

 

 

 

EFP ISSUANCE 200 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 SEPT: 0 AND DEC. 200 AND MARCH:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 200 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1198 CONTRACTS TO THE 200 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1398 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.990 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.48 RISE IN PRICE///

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.82 POINTS OR 0.21%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 200.52 POINTS OR 0.85%   /The Nikkei closed UP 27.48 POINTS OR 0.12%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .11%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8172 /Oil UP TO 40.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and 42.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8172 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8203 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

 

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY BY A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED 2991 CONTRACTS TO 562,019 MOVING CLOSER TO  OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS SMALL COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG RISE OF $14.30 IN GOLD PRICING /MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A VERY SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1201 CONTRACTS),.AND CONTINUAL/ AND ALMOST COMPLETE  SPREADER LIQUIDATION WITH MOST OF THE SPREADERS LEAVING ON THURSDAY’S RAID.    WE  ALSO PROBABLY HAD  1)  SOME CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING,  2)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  SMALL INCREASE IN TONNAGE  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX//SEPT. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4193 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS..WE SAW A BIG NOTICE FILED THURSDAY NIGHT OF 180 NOTICES AS OUR BANKERS MUST FIND GOLD AND SUPPLY OUR LONDONERS WITH THEIR METAL. MONDAY SAW 33 NOTICES FILED AND TODAY 16 NOTICES FILED.

 

 

 

(SEE BELOW)

 

 

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 86

 

 

 

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1201 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:   OCT: DEC 1201; FEB// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1201  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 4192 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1201 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 2991 COMEX CONTRACTS.  WE ARE ALMOST FINISHED OUR SPREADER LIQUIDATION EXERCISE. THE BIG NEWS IS THE POWERFUL LEVEL OF OCTOBER 2020 CONTRACTS STILL OUTSTANDING. (AT 34,567 CONTRACTS)..AND WE HAVE STILL TO RECEIVE OCTOBER 2020 CONTRACTS ON OPTIONS EXERCISED AND I EXPECT THAT NUMBER TO BE A DILLY!!  

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $14.30).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED   13.03 TONNES,…

 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 4192, CONTRACTS OR 419200 OZ OR 13.03 TONNES.

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  562,019 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 56.20 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1748 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1748/2200 OR 79.49% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 210,708 contracts// volume poor/

 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  253,196 contracts//  volume: POOR //most of our traders have left for London

 

 

SEPT 29 /2020

SEPT. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

FINAL STANDING FOR SEPT GOLD

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

87,023.814

OZ

JPMORGAN

SCOTIA

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
16 notice(s)
 1600 OZ
(0.0497 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(00 oz)
00 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4938 notices
493,800 OZ
16.359 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 

 

 

total deposit: nil oz

 

 

 

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

 

we had 2 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  771.624 oz

ii) Into Scotia:  86,252.190 oz

 

 

total customer deposit:  87,023.814     oz

 

 

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

total withdrawals; nil oz

 

 

 

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

 

ADJUSTMENTS: 2 //  customer into the dealer

 

 

i) Loomis:  115,743.600 oz

 

ii) Malca: 64,237.698 oz

 

 

 

 

The front month of SEPT registered a total of 16 contracts for a LOSS of 32 contracts.  We had 33 notices filed on Monday, so we gained  1 contracts or an additional 100 oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of Sept. Remember that we have been adding to our gold deliveries despite the raid these past few weeks.  The boys have now switched to October as the assault on the comex gold commences in earnest!!

 

Oct LOST ONLY 2954 contracts DOWN to 34,567. October witnessed three events:

  1. more spreader liquidation
  2. some minor rollover to December
  3. huge purchases of October and these guys will stand for delivery.

I wrote the following yesterday:

“If I were to be a betting man, I would guess we will end up with 35,000 contracts standing for delivery or 3.5 million oz  (108 tonnes)”

We just may make that level!

June 2020 saw a huge 152.56 tonnes finally stand for delivery

August 2020 saw a monstrous 171.39 tonnes stand.

However, we will have one major difference: all of the October gold will leave for London.  June and August gold stayed at the comex vaults.

 

 

 

November gained 179 contracts to stand at 721.

The big December contract GAINED 5042 contracts UP to 437,282 contracts..

THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH OI STANDING FOR OCTOBER. GENERALLY OCTOBER IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY(GOLDMAN SACHS) JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE ON OCTOBER FOR PHYSICAL METAL. GOLDMAN SACHS ONE OF THE LEADERS OF THE NEW LONDON LME EXCHANGE NEEDS THE GOLD INVENTORY FOR LIQUIDITY AND INITIAL CONTRIBUTION WITH OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS.

 

 

 

We had  16 notices filed today for  1600 oz

 

FOR THE SEPT 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 16  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 13 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4938) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT (16 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (16 x 100 oz per contract) equals 493,800 OZ OR 15.359 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (4938, x 100 oz +16 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (16) x 100 oz which equals 493,800 oz standing OR 15.359 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a SEPT delivery month (a NON active delivery month).

 

We gained 1 contracts or an additional 100  oz will try their luck searching for metal on this side of the pond. Goldman Sachs is in urgent need of physical gold tonight as they are the major player standing for gold on the October 2020 contract .

 

 

 

 

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

 

592,648.822 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  18.433 TONNES ( A HUGE INCREASE FROM 10.6)

 

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

277,934.09 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.644 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               19.017 tonnes

51,084.609 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.588 tonnes jpm

total pledged gold:  1,574,454.119 oz                                     48.97 tonnes

 

 

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 468.36 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 15.359 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  16,632,511.533 oz or 517.34 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,574,454.119 oz or 48.97 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,058,057.0  (468.36 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,058,057.0 (468.36 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  20,287,947.899 oz (631.04 tonnes) HUGE DROP

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  36,920,459.432 oz 1,148.38 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1022.04 tonnes

 

end

 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

 

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

 

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 

 

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

 

 

 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

SEPT 29/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

 

FINAL STANDINGS

SEPT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
945,749.547 oz
Brinks
HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,198,028.900 oz
JPMorgan
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
47
CONTRACT(S)
(235,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
 nil oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  11080 contracts

55,400,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposits into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil      oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 2 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i)into JPMorgan:  597,554.500 oz

 

ii) Into Scotia: 600,474.400 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPMorgan now has 184.3 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.2% of all official comex silver. (184.3 million/374.0 million

 

total customer deposits today:  1,198,029.900   oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

 

i) Out of Brinks:  597,694.75 oz
ii) Out of HSBC: 348,054.797 oz

total withdrawals; 945,749.547    oz

We had 3 adjustments/ aa dealer (reg) to the customer account (elig)

i) Brinks:  1,524,929.039 oz

ii) CNT: 1,361,786.860 oz

iii) out of Manfra: 1,004,723.43 oz

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 138.454 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  374.019 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

the front month of SEPTEMBER registered an open interest of 47 contracts thus GAINING 35 contracts.  We had 12 notices filed on MONDAY so we GAINED 47contracts or an additional 236,000 oz will stand in this active delivery month of September  as they refused to morph into London based forwards and thus they also negated a fiat bonus for their effort.

 

 

 

 

 

Oct saw another loss of 78 contracts to stand at 1837. November GAINED 60 contracts to stand at 210,

The big December contract month saw its OI contract by 1959 contracts down to 131,334

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPT 2020. contract month is represented by 47 contract(s) FOR 235,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 11,080 x 5,000 oz = 55,400,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT( 47) and the number of notices served upon today 47x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2019 contract month: 11,033 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPT  (47)- number of notices served upon today (47) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month .equals 55,400,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH.

We gained 47 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 235,000 oz. WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH,

 

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 77,057 CONTRACTS // volume  very good//

 

 

 

 

 

FOR YESTERDAY   81,179  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME// strong/

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 981,170 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.405 billion  OZ 57.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

 

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISE TO- 2.12% ((SEPT 28/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.78% to NAV:   (SEPT 28/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/2.12%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.37 TRADING 18.78///NEGATIVE 3.08

END

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.10//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

 

/SEPT 28//WITH GOLD UP $14.30 DOLLARS: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 25//WITH GOLD DOWN 410.80 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1266.84 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14TONNES.

SEPT 23//WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 11.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY, A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 18.98 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTER THE GLD///// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.62TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.94 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1259.64TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $10.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT: 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.05 TODAY: A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 15//WITH GOLD UP $2.25 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .43 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD  DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.00 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.92 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 ON THIS 2ND DAY OF A 3 DAY RAID:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 TODAY, WE HAVE 2 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF .87 TONNES AND.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 31//WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES/

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $38.20 TODAY, WE SURPRISINGLY HAD A .59 TONNE WITHDRAWAL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD DOWN 17.50 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1252.09 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $26.70  TODAY/  WE  HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD//RESTS AT 1248.85 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY, WE  HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.20 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.38 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Inventory rests tonight at

SEPT 29/ GLD INVENTORY 1268.89 tonnes*

LAST;  909 TRADING DAYS:   +329.05 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

 

LAST 809 TRADING DAYS://+507.98  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

 

end

 

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER UP 86 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.791 MILLILON OZ//

 

SEPT 28//WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.769 MILLION OZ CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.791 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 TRANSACTIONS: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.28 MILION OZ FROM THE SLV AND A DEPOSIT OF 1.861 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.022 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23//WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.048 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.141 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.491 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.43 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.862 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.350MILLION OZ//

SEPT 18. WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.537 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.793 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY:  HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS A) 1.675 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER B) 0.931 MILLION OZ/ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.956 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.63 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.169 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 15  CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.631 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.258 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.430 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 2.WITH SILVER DOWN $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.365 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY REST AT 571.688 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 1//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.982 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.652 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.071 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS  TODAY// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.65 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.074 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24//WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A NO CHANGES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843  MILLION OZ//

 

SEPT 29

.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

550.791 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

 

 

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Alasdair Macleod also notes that many longs are standing for delivery

(Macleod/KingworldNews)

Last week’s smash gained bullion banks little, Macleod tells KWN

 Section: 

2:05p ET Sunday, September 27, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In comments at King World News, GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod says last week’s smashing of gold by bullion banks in the futures market failed to produce enough selling to allow them to close many of their short positions.

Macleod writes: “The other side of the trade is no longer flighty hedge funds that rarely stand for delivery but the ‘non-reportables,’ which don’t fit into the other categories and are presumably family offices and billionaires around the globe, sensitive to the consequences of monetary inflation.”

The usually little-traded October gold contract on the New York Commodities Exchange, Macleod writes, still has nearly 118 tonnes’ worth of contracts outstanding even as it expires this coming week. He considers the gold price explosive.

 

Macleod’s comments are posted at KWN here:

https://kingworldnews.com/alasdair-macleod-big-money-aggressively-buying…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Inside the JPMorgan trading desk the U.S. called a crime ring

 Section: 

By Tom Schoenberg
Bloomberg News
Monday, September 28, 2020

Billionaires have Davos. For filmmakers, there’s Sundance. For the people who mine and trade and ship everything from iron ore to platinum, there’s London Metal Exchange Week. It’s a blur of symposiums and drinks, with a reliably lavish lunch thrown by JPMorgan Chase & Co. On a balmy October day in 2018, hundreds of guests crossed a courtyard in the shadow of the Bank of England to a medieval guild hall for champagne and sashimi courtesy of the bank and its top metals trader, Mike Nowak.

Nowak had plenty to celebrate. His global trading desk at JPMorgan was the powerhouse in futures contracts for gold, silver, platinum and palladium that account for tens of trillions of dollars in transactions annually. In his mid-40s, Nowak had run the precious metals desk for more than a decade. He had a young family, a house outside Manhattan and a seven-bedroom vacation home a few blocks from the beach in New Jersey.

But that world was unraveling. Unbeknown to Nowak, one of his former employees was turning on him.

That same day, the sun was barely up in Brooklyn when a trader named John Edmonds set off for a meeting with federal prosecutors. Edmonds, who’d worked for years on Nowak’s desk, took a four-hour car trip to Hartford, Connecticut, where he told authorities that Nowak’s crew wasn’t just buying and selling precious metals, but systematically cheating to help themselves and their top clients. Edmonds admitted to fraudulent trades that day in a sealed guilty plea. Soon, others from the precious metals desk provided accounts, setting off events leading to criminal charges against Nowak and four others from the bank.

Tom Schoenberg

Testimony by Edmonds and others also underpins a U.S. Justice Department criminal investigation into the bank itself that people familiar with the matter say will be resolved in coming days. They said the bank is expected to pay around $1 billion to settle with the Justice Department and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Among the alleged misdeeds is so-called spoofing, or planting fake orders into the market to steer others into buying or selling at prices that favor the bank. In authorities’ years-long crackdown on spoofing — which has included the conviction of two former Deutsche Bank metals traders in Chicago late last week — the expected JPMorgan penalty would be several times the size of previous settlements. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-28/inside-the-jpm-precio…

END

iii) Other physical stories:

It is now out; JPMorgan to pay one billion fine for:

a) racketeering

Aside from the bank, three JPMorgan traders, Gregg Smith, Michael Nowak, and Christopher Jordan, and one former salesperson, Jeffrey Ruffo have been charged with running a corrupt criminal enterprise within America’s largest bank. (A)

b) spoofing

zerohedge)

JPM Pays Record $1 Billion Fine; Admits Spoofing Of Gold And Treasuries

As expected, JP Morgan has just agreed to pay $920 million in fines – a record penalty for allegations of systematic market manipulation  – as part of a deferred prosecution agreement with federal prosecutors in Connecticut, bringing to a close a years long investigation into “spoofing” and other market manipulation tactics in the precious metals and Treasury markets.

Over the past de

cade, holding megabank trading desks accountable for routine manipulation of FX, Libor and other markets has been a priority for prosecutors, ever since – it seems – the springtime “flash crash” of 2010 shone an uncomfortable spotlight on ‘spoofing’ a technique whereby traders submit orders they never intended to fill solely for the purpose of trying to move the price of a given currency, futures contract etc. in a direction that favors one of their positions. For example, a trader who’s looking to sell a big slug of front-month gold futures might layer in dozens of “buy” orders to try and push the price up to hit his sell ‘offer’. The trick is, traders need to make sure none of these fraudulent offers ever get filled.

At trial, JPM’s former top precious metals trader argued that “spoofing” was an inevitable adaptation by sell-side dealers to fend off high-frequency market makers. One Deutsche Bank trader argued that the behavior was so commonplace, he didn’t realize it was wrong, or illegal.

Tuesday’s settlement addresses “two distinct schemes to defraud”, according to a press release from the DoJ. Under the terms of the DPA, JPMorgan will pay over $920 million in a criminal monetary penalty, criminal disgorgement,= and victim compensation. The criminal  penalty paid by the bank will be credited against payments made to the CFTC under a separate agreement with the CFTC being announced today and with part of the criminal disgorgement credited against payments made to the SEC under a separate agreement with the SEC being announced today.

“For over eight years, traders on JP Morgan’s precious metals and US Treasuries desks engaged in separate schemes to defraud other market participants that involved thousands of instances of unlawful trading meant to enhance profits and avoid losses,” said Acting Assistant Attorney General Brian C. Rabbitt of the Justice Department’s Criminal Division. “Today’s resolution – which includes a significant criminal monetary penalty, compensation for victims, and requires JP Morgan to disgorge its unlawful gains – reflects the nature and seriousness of the bank’s offenses and represents a milestone in the department’s ongoing efforts to ensure the integrity of public markets critical to our financial system.”

“JPMorgan engaged in two separate years-long market manipulation schemes,” said US Attorney John Durham. “Not only will the company pay a substantial financial penalty and return money to victims, but this agreement requires JPMorgan to self-report violations of the federal anti-fraud laws and cooperate in any future criminal investigations. I thank the FBI for its dedication in investigating these deceptive trading practices and other sophisticated financial crimes.”

According to admissions and court documents, between approximately March 2008 and August 2016, numerous traders and sales personnel on JPMorgan’s precious metals desk located in New York, London, and Singapore engaged in a scheme to defraud in connection with the purchase and sale of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts (collectively, precious metals futures contracts) that traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc. and Commodity Exchange Inc., which are commodities exchanges operated by the CME Group Inc. Prosecutors identified “tens of thousands of instances” where JPM traders placed fraudulent orders in attempts to manipulate market prices.

Aside from the bank, three JPMorgan traders, Gregg Smith, Michael Nowak, and Christopher Jordan, and one former salesperson, Jeffrey Ruffo have been charged with running a corrupt criminal enterprise within America’s largest bank. (A)

Moreover, between April 2008 and January 2016, traders on JPM’s Treasuries desks in New York and London used similar “spoofing” techniques to place fraudulent orders in Treasury futures with the Chicago Board of Trade (another commodity trading venue operated by the CME), as well as for notes and bonds in trading in the spot secondary market for Treasury securities. These traders also routinely misled markets about the price and supply of Treasury securities. (B)

Over the span of eight years, 15 traders at the biggest US bank caused losses of more than $300 million to other participants in precious metals and Treasury markets, according to the court filings. JP Morgan has admitted responsibility for the traders’ actions. The three-year DPA will allow the bank to walk away from the scandal – and two counts of wire fraud – so long as it self-reports any future violations.

Meanwhile,  the woman who was overseeing JPM’s global commodity business when some of this wrongdoing was ongoing all this went down wasn’t hardy mentioned even once during the proceedings.

Read the DPA below:

JPMDPA by Zerohedge on Scribd

END

 

Tom Schoenberg//..Bloomberg

Meet all the crooks at JPMorgan

a good cross section of the crimes committed by JPMorgan.

Meet The Mastermind Behind JPMorgan’s Gold And Silver Manipulation “Crime Ring”

There was a time when the merest mention of gold manipulation in “reputable” media was enough to have one branded a perpetual conspiracy theorist with a tinfoil farm out back. That was roughly coincident with a time when Libor, FX, mortgage, and bond market manipulation was also considered unthinkable, when High Frequency Traders were believed to “provide liquidity”, when the stock market was said to not be manipulated by the Fed, and when the ever-confused media, always eager to take “complicated” financial concepts at the face value set by a self-serving establishment, never dared to question anything.

All that changed in November 2018 when a former JPMorgan precious-metals trader admitted he engaged in a six-year spoofing scheme that defrauded investors in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts. John Edmonds, then 36, pled guilty under seal in the District of Connecticut to commodities fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, commodities price manipulation, and spoofing, a trading technique whereby traders flood the market with “fake” bids or asks to push the price of a given futures contract up or down toward a more advantageous price, and to confuse other traders or HFTs which respond to trader intentions by launching momentum in the other direction. As FBI Assistant Director in Charge Sweeney explained at the time, “with his guilty plea, Edmonds admitted he intended to introduce materially false and misleading information into the commodities markets.”

A little more than a year later, former Deutsche Bank precious metals trader David Liew sat in a federal courtroom telling a jury about how he learned to ‘spoof’ markets from his colleagues, and that he considered the behavior to be “OK” because it was “so commonplace.” Unfortunately for him, federal authorities didn’t see it that way, and have aggressively prosecuted the big dealer banks for market manipulation across a variety of markets. His testimony led to convictions for two of his former coworkers. A few days later, JP Morgan agreed to settle similar allegations with a record $1 billion fine, netting another major victory for the government in the nearly decade-long campaign to root out manipulation from the precious metal markets.

Today, Bloomberg is finally catching up to years of “conspiracy theory” reporting, such as this article published here in 2014 and titled “Gold Rigging By Bullion Banks Exposed: The Complete Chart“, with asweeping expose about the precious metals manipulation and spoofing scandal, focusing on the precious metals trading desk at JPM and its top trader, Mike Nowak.

And although Bloomberg inexplicably did not mention it even once in its lengthy report, Nowak’s desk was under the direct purview of Blythe Masters, who from 2007 until 2014 was the head of Global Commodities at JPMorgan.

Which is ironic because going all the way back to 2012, the “tinfoil hat” crowd was abuzz with speculation that central banks, perhaps in league with the big broker dealers and occasionally aided by HFT momentum ignition, were conspiring to manipulate precious metals prices. When questioned about this in an interview with CNBC, Masters denied that JPMorgan was engaged in any manipulation, and instead insisted that JPM’s precious metals desk was reputable a “client-driven business.”

“Our business is a client-driven business where we execute on behalf of clients to help them with their…risk management objectives,” Blythe Masters said before going on to claim that the bank runs a “balanced book”, where its long and short positions are always evened out. But the punchline was when Master, who is perhaps best known for discovering the Credit Default Swap, said that manipulating markets to benefit the bank’s positions to the detriment of clients would be  “wrong, and we don’t do it.”

Oops.

Masters quietly quit JPM two years later – perhaps sensing that the regulators are starting to sniff around the precious metals business and just after she was named by FERC for organizing the manipulation of power markets in California and the Midwest (JPM settled for $410 million). Unfortunately for her former subordinate, Mike Nowak, who until recently was the top JPM precious metals trader, he is now in the crosshairs of a unprecedented RICO case alleging his trading desk operated like an ongoing criminal conspiracy due to its abuse of “spoofing” a strategy that has been blamed as illegal market manipulation that may have caused the 2010 flash crash. But more on Blythe in a second.

In a lengthy feature detailing the federal investigation into Nowak’s desk, Bloomberg reveals how Nowak’s scheme was exposed to the world after regulators came knocking and former subordinates turned against him, and how the ‘spoofing’ practice’ first arrived at JPMorgan alongside several new faces from Bear Stearns, which JPM “bought” back in 2008 in a government-backstopped deal for pennies on the dollar.

Testimony from Edmonds and other turncoat traders might help earn guilty verdicts against Nowak and three co-defendants from JPM. If prosecutors win more guilty verdicts against Nowak and his team, it could set a new precedent for how the big banks use tools like RICO to go after the big banks.

In charging Nowak and others, prosecutors are testing an unusual application of a law formulated to battle mobsters, the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act. Prosecutors say Nowak’s trading desk was a criminal racketeering operation within the confines of America’s biggest bank. Traders on Nowak’s desk engaged in spoofing as a core business practice, doing it more than 50,000 times over nearly a decade, they said..

The Justice Department has famously used the RICO statute to bring down mafia bosses and drug gangs. It has used other statutes to extract penalties and guilty pleas from big banks accused of market manipulation. But it’s been decades since the government has attempted to apply the anti-racketeering law to members of a major bank’s trading desk, placing Nowak and others in crosshairs once trained on the likes of the Latin Kings and the Gambino crime family.

As has traditionally been the case in various DoJ cases against Wall Street spoofers, the evidence includes Bloomberg extensive and damning trader chat transcripts obtained by the court. Bloomberg offers an example early in the report.

At that point, instead of consummating the purchase, Nowak received an instant message from a Bear Stearns manager across the street: “Smith just bid it up to … sell.”

Here’s another none-too-subtle exchange.

While much of the details behind the DOJ case had already been known to the market, for the first time the report explained how federal prosecutors based in Connecticut initially stumbled on to the JPM precious metals desk. As the DoJ was upping its focus on market manipulation with cases involving FX and other asset classes, prosecutors started looking for patterns in the raw trading data provided by the exchanges. When they looked for individual traders cancelling a bevy of orders on one side while executing on the other, they noted it as a possible example of spoofing. Quickly, trades made by Edmonds and other members of Nowak’s desk stood out.

One can imagine that when prosecutors decided to ‘shake the tree’ and confront Edmonds with the evidence he quickly folded. The team soon secured another cooperating witness from the Bear Stearns side, and they were off.

The arrest of Nowak – who was also on the board of the LBMA (which described itself as the “the world’s authority on precious metals”) until he was kicked off in Sept 2019 once the charges against him were revealed

… sent a shockwave through the industry as others wondered whether they could also come under scrutiny: because “if he could come under scrutiny, couldn’t anyone?”

Nowak’s trial is on pace for next year, according to filings in the case. One expert said the odds will be stacked against Nowak since the government should be able to use a JPMorgan settlement in its favor.

“The company — and all its information and all of its personnel — is now sitting at the prosecutors’ table,” one lawyer said.

Curiously, in a non-too trivial defense, Bloomberg explained that Nowak believed that spoofing was more or less required to help human traders fend off algorithm-driven HFT firms from siphoning up all the profits. He may have a point. Here is how Bloomberg describes the attempt by upstart HFTs market manipulators to steal market share from such established manipulators are JPM:

For generations, metals changed hands in open-outcry pits where hundreds of traders screamed prices and obscenities. Nowak, introverted and brainy, came along in time for electronic trading and the problems it posed. Firms and individuals with fast internet connections and proprietary algorithms were swarming in and out of positions to profit on small daily price moves.

For long-time readers, none of this is news – after all this is precisely the dynamic we explained first in 2009 and watched it grow and flourish for much of the 2010s. At the same time, some of the most notable traders across Wall Street were directly engaging with these HFTs in a furious battle of life and death, as humans constantly tried to outsmart the machines. One such approach was to spoof them (HFT powerhouse Citadel recently filed a lawsuit it was “defrauded” by humans who successfully spoofed its algos).

Traders at big operations like JPMorgan’s found that within a second of placing a bid, their price was often countered by high-frequency traders who would match and close a position before the traders had a chance to complete their deal. These algos not only snapped up trades but also created momentum in the market that pushed prices away from the traders’ targets.

This too was explained on this site all the way back in 2018 in “”Momentum Ignition” – The Market’s Parasitic ‘Stop Hunt’ Phenomenon Explained.” Back then it was also called a conspiracy theory. Turns out it wasn’t.

One way to outsmart them, current and former brokers and traders say, was to put up and remove an offer on the opposite side of the market. That would cause the algorithms to recalculate market supply and demand, leaving an opening for the traders to get the deal done at the price they wanted.

Early on, some of Nowak’s traders were attempting to counter the algos by placing a single large order opposite the one they wanted filled, according to prosecutors. The Bear traders’ twist was to place multiple orders, at different prices, that in aggregate were substantially larger than the genuine order — a technique the government calls layering. The orders, made in rapid succession after the genuine order, would be canceled as soon as the genuine order was filled. Think of it like trying to sell a hamburger. You conjure a mob in front of your burger joint, creating the perception of demand. Once a real customer steps up and buys the burger, you make the mob vanish.

While this strategy is familiar to everyone who wishes to create a buzz – such as the fake lines to buy iPhones in front of Apple stores – the problem is that in capital markets at least, spoofing is illegal. Unfortunately, since HFTs were also legal – and they should never have been allowed in a post Reg-NMS world – it left traders relying on their own devices to outsmart the robots, and that’s why spoofing became more and more popular and prevalent.

The layering worked in futures markets in part because participants see a second-by-second barrage of offers to buy and sell, but not who’s making them. And whereas one big order might stand out, a lot of small ones might not. That made it important to warn colleagues when layering was in progress. One of the former Bear traders did just that for a new JPMorgan colleague in early 2009, according to prosecutors.

“So you know its gregg bidding up on the futures trying to get some off,” the Bear alum wrote. “Incase you were watching some large bids come into market.”

At that moment, Smith placed an order to sell seven gold futures while placing offers to buy 77. The activity was viewable for 59 seconds before Smith sold three of his contracts and canceled his swarm of buy orders.

“Appreesh,” the colleague responded, “that worked!”

Altogether, Smith, a lead gold trader, executed some 38,000 layering sequences over the years, or about 20 a day, prosecutors said in filings. (Smith has pleaded not guilty). Nowak himself primarily traded options, but he would dip into the futures market to hedge those positions. He tried his hand at layering in September 2009, according to filings, and went on to use the technique some 3,600 times.

So what was the damage?

Well, according to the government, JPMorgan’s traders caused tens of millions of dollars in losses for those on the other side of the transactions – which included not just HFTs but regular, retail traders – and “harmed market integrity.” As a result, JPMorgan’s precious metals trading desk — which brings in as much as $250 million in annual profit — generated millions of dollars in unlawful gains.

What may explain the brazen manipulation not only at JPM but at every other abnk is that the CFTC – those toothless regulators once led by late Bart Chilton – looked into allegations of market manipulation of the silver market by JPMorgan not once, not twice, but three times… and found nothing (to much mockery).

Nowak, who held leadership roles on the LME and the London Bullion Market Association, was asked to explain the bank’s trading. In 2010, he sat for two days of interviews with CFTC investigators, explaining the bank’s trading strategies.

“To your knowledge, have traders at JPMorgan in the metals group put up bids and offers to the market which they didn’t intend to execute and then pulled them before they got hit or lifted?” one CFTC investigator asked.

No,” Nowak responded.

The CFTC closed the third of those three inquiries in 2013 without taking action. JPMorgan has cited those CFTC investigations while defending against civil lawsuits, accusing plaintiffs of rehashing “implausible theories” of silver futures manipulation that were rejected by regulators.

It turns out those theories were not only plausible but true, and they were only validated thanks to an upstart, young prosecutor name Avi Perry, an assistant U.S. attorney in Connecticut with a Yale law degree. As Bloomberg puts it “Perry didn’t set out to target JPMorgan’s operation so much as JPMorgan’s trading found him.”

Perry started hunting for market manipulation around 2018, as the Justice Department was upping its game in the area. For years, prosecutors had built market manipulation cases by following up on tips and pulling trading data on suspects. Now they were doing deep dives into raw data to uncover targets, parsing records filed directly with the exchanges.

In the real-time scrum of futures markets, where offers are made and pulled all day long, it’s nearly impossible to discern potential manipulation. But the government had an edge. The data feed of the trades includes each trader’s exchange credentials, allowing investigators to sort for suspicious patterns and attribute it to individuals.

Perry also had a valuable guide to the market. His lead FBI investigator, Jonathan Luca, previously worked as a gold and silver futures trader at Morgan Stanley. Together, they created a screen for precious metals trading data. The idea, according to two people familiar with the analysis, was to turn up sequences in which a trader placed and canceled a profusion of orders on one side of the market while executing a trade on the other. The bigger the mismatch between genuine and pulled offers, and the more a given trader did it, they said, the more it would be considered a red flag for potential spoofing.

When they ran the screen, traders at JPMorgan stood out.

The rest is history, and two years later JPMorgan is facing a record $1 billion wrist-slap, which one assumes is a fraction of the profits the bank made by manipulating gold and silver for over a decade, and a few traders are set to spend a few months in “Club Fed”-style minimum security prisons.

It didn’t come without complications though. Readers may recall one of the other notable gold manipulator names mentioned here over the past decade, that of UBS former gold desk head in Zurich, Andre Flotron (mentioned here herehere and here). Well, Andre walked after Perry failed to present a convincing case and most of the charges against the former UBS gold trader were dismissed and he was acquitted. Defense lawyers and even some fraud prosecutors wondered if the government’s spoofing initiative was waning, according to Bloomberg.

But Perry did not give up and in 2018 his bosses recruited him for a job at the Justice Department’s fraud section in Washington, whose prosecutors have built some of the biggest U.S. corporate crime cases. With the trading analysis in hand, he went looking for individuals who might talk.

It’s unclear how Perry and the FBI approached Edmonds, who at times had placed orders with as many as 400 contracts on the opposite side of a genuine one, but they likely did so without raising alarms inside JPMorgan. Edmonds had left JPMorgan in 2017 after declining the bank’s offer to relocate to Singapore, and by the fall of 2018 was working at another bank.

Perry and his team talked to Edmonds at least twice in the weeks before he traveled to Connecticut to enter his secret guilty plea on Oct. 9, 2018.

Several months later, Perry secured the cooperation of one of the Bear traders who moved to JPMorgan. Pleading guilty, that trader said he personally manipulated trades while working from offices in New York, London and Singapore, and said spoofed trades were a fixture at the bank for nearly a decade.

However, in Nowak’s office there was little sign of dark clouds. Although banks often place individuals on leave when legal action may be pending, Nowak and Smith remained at their desks well after the charges against Edmonds were made public in November 2018.

Things then rapidly escalated, and to prosecutors, the evidence fit the template for a racketeering conspiracy, aka RICO, most famouslyused in cases against mafia families in the 1970s — a pattern of illegality over time, with individuals working together to further the goals of the allegedly criminal enterprise. Racketeering charges were leveled against Michael Milken in 1989 but dropped when he reached a settlement with authorities. The statute was successfully applied in the early 1990s against eight traders in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange soybean pits, according to Bloomberg.

Using the RICO template, by the summer of 2019, Perry had secured the government’s indictment of Nowak, Smith and a third trader. It was filed under seal in federal court in Chicago, where the trades took place. The charges were made public in September, and Nowak appeared in handcuffs in federal court in Newark, New Jersey — accused of conspiracy to participate in or conduct a criminal racketeering enterprise, attempted price manipulation, bank fraud, wire fraud, commodities fraud and spoofing. In addition to the half-dozen people who’ve been charged, the government documents referred to seven more individuals as unindicted co-conspirators. It’s not clear whether any of them have cooperated or what additional information they may have provided in the year since.

Nowak’s trial is scheduled for next year, and the government should be able to use the recent $1 billion JPMorgan settlement to its favor, Bloomberg said citing Michael Koenig, a former federal prosecutor who’s now a partner at Hinckley, Allen & Snyder who added that “the company — and all its information and all of its personnel — is now sitting at the prosecutors’ table.”

* * *

Yet now that all the “tinfoil” conspiracy theories involving the JPMorgan commodity trading desk have been confirmed, the bank is set to pay $1 billion to settle all ongoing legal cases (and is yet another reason why Jamie Dimon is richer than you), and a bunch of traders may go to prison for a few months, one name is strangely missing.

That of Blythe Masters, the person who was in charge of all JPMorgan commodity trading in the period 2007 – 2014 when most of these traders got their start in the spoofing business.

While we wait to find out how and why the DOJ missed this key JPMorgan staffer who supervised and made the spoofing possible for nearly a decade, and who was previously busted by FERC for similarly manipulating the energy market in California and Michigan (because merely rigging gold prices was not enough for the bank that also wanted to moonlight as Enron), we will remind readers of an interview Masters gave to CNBC in 2012 in which a primary topic, ironically, was whether or not Jamie Dimon’s firm manipulates the prices of precious metals, and particularly silver.

What followed was – as we know now – an avalanche of lies:

  • JPM’s commodities business is not about betting on commodity prices but about assisting clients”… “it’s about assisting clients in executing, managing, their risks and ensuring access to capital so they can make the kind of large long-term investments that are needed in the long run to expand the supply of commodities”…
  • “There’s been a tremendous amount of speculation particularly in the blogosphere on this topic. I think the challenge is it represents a misunderstanding as the nature of our business. As i mentioned earlier, our business is a client-driven business where we execute on behalf of clients to achieve their financial and risk management objectives. The challenge is that commentators don’t see that. So to give you a specific example, we store significant amount of commodities, for example, silver, on behalf of customers we operate vaults in New York City, Singapore and in London. And often when customers have that metal stored in our facilities, they hedge it on a forward basis through JPMorgan who in turn hedges itself in the commodity markets. If you see only the hedges and our activity in the futures market, but you aren’t aware of the underlying client position that we’re hedging, that would suggest inaccurately that we’re running a large directional position. In fact that’s not the case at all.
  • “We have offsetting positions. We have no stake in whether prices rise or decline. Rather we’re running a flat or relatively flat matched book.

And the punchline from the 2012 interview:

What is commonly out there is that JPMorgan is manipulating the metals market. It’s not part of our business model. it would be wrong and we don’t do it.”

Eight years later, JPMorgan is paying $1 billion because it was manipulating the metals market and was lying about it. Which begs the question: does this mean that manipulation is also part of JPM’s business model? We can’t wait for someone to ask Jamie Dimon this question at the upcoming JPMorgan earnings call

 

 

END

An interesting read.. the author describes the huge damage created by the bullion banks with their spoofing

(goldsilver.com)

 

What JP Morgan’s $1 Billion Fine For Manipulating Metals Could Mean For Gold

concentration commitment of traders 2020

Bloomberg reported on Sept 23, 2020 that JPMorgan is expected to pay a $1 billion fine for manipulating the metals futures and treasury markets. [Emphasis mine]

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is poised to pay close to $1 billion to resolve market manipulation investigations by U.S. authorities into its trading of metals futures and Treasury securities, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

While we don’t have all of the details yet, and the formal announcement has not been made, this article will intelligently speculate on what affect the manipulation may have had on the precious metals markets and why that matters to gold and silver investors.

The Scope of the Price Manipulation Is Enormous

Whatever assumptions the market made on price during the time in which this manipulation occurred in the precious metals futures markets were wrong. This will have affected billions of dollars of trade in the precious metals.

Let’s examine how big the futures market really is when compared with the actual physical gold trade on an annual basis to get an idea for the implications of this manipulation.

On September 23, 2020 in the gold December 2020 contract alone, we had 411,558 contracts traded according to the CME Group. That represents 41,155,800 ounces, using a 100 ounce contract, traded in gold on that day alone.

gold sept 23 volume cme group

ource: CME Group

According to the World Gold Council, gold mining adds 2500-3000 tonnes of gold to world supply each year. 3000 tonnes is roughly 96 million ounces (3000 x  32,150.7 ounces per tonne) of gold added to world stocks per year.

So on a single day this week, the futures market traded paper contracts of 42% of yearly production in gold. This is within a single month’s futures contract, not for the whole futures market trade in 2020.

paper volume comex 2020

Source: Goldchartsrus.com

At the current gold price of $1858 per ounce (as of Sept 24th 10am CST), on Sept 23rd the futures market processed $76.47 billion of paper gold trades. On a single day.

Now lets examine total gold volume for 2020, up to this point in time.

comex gold volumes annual 2020

Source: Goldchartsrus.com

I drew a very rough mean line at about 360,000 contracts of 100 oz gold traded daily. Let those numbers sink in for a moment.

How much did the price manipulation affect the billions of dollars of assumptions made in the gold futures market, and for how long did this last?

Again we don’t know the details, but this simple exercise has given us an idea of how much money was potentially lost on trades in the gold futures market, and how much more than the $1billion in fines JP Morgan could have potentially made by manipulating it.

It appears the fine could be a slap on the wrist compared with their profits. In other words, manipulation of precious metals potentially could have provided JP Morgan a healthy ROI even given the fine.

But the argument gets more interesting when we consider most gold ever mined is also affected by this scheme.

All of Your Gold Price Assumptions Were Wrong

The COMEX futures market trades are the largest input in what determines the gold price that we all use on a daily basis.

Gold futures prices serve as the basis for the LBMA Gold Price… The COMEX is the world’s largest gold futures trading exchange.

The price of gold that is to be delivered immediately after purchase is called the spot price. If you were to average the net value of all currently traded gold futures contracts for the nearest month, you would get the gold spot price.

That means that every piece of jewelry, every ounce of gold used in computing, and every investment transaction on gold made during the extent of the manipulation by JP Morgan (and Scotia) were wrong.

The massive futures market trading documented above affects the price of all new gold mined every year plus the current value of gold mined throughout all of history.

Per the World Gold Council, 197,576 tonnes have been mined up through 2019. The current value of all of that gold, at $1858 per ounce, is $11.8 trillion. (197,576 tonnes x 32,150.7 ounces per tonne x $1858 price per ounce).

Why does the futures market affect all gold ever mined? Because the vast majority of gold ever mined is not “used up” in industrial applications, unlike other metals such as silver, copper, aluminum, palladium, etc. And because gold is so valuable, much of what is used in electronic applications is recovered in scrap.

Per the WGC,

Total above-ground stocks (end-2019): 197,576 tonnes

  1. Jewellery: 92,947 tonnes, 47.0%
  2. Private investment: 42,619 tonnes, 21.6%
  3. Official Holdings: 33,919 tonnes, 17.2%
  4. Other: 28,090 tonnes, 14.2%
  5. Below ground reserves: 54,000 tonnes

Source: Metals Focus; GFMS, Thomson Reuters, US Geological Survey, World Gold Council

At this point, does the $1 billion fine that is being paid adequate to cover for the price manipulation on all of that gold held? My response to that question is very obviously not, at least not on the aggregate level of all gold being held.

I don’t know all of the factors were taken into consideration by the regulators in calculating the fine amount relative to the length and effect of the manipulation scheme.

How that was calculated is likely never to be made public. But it does appear to be an order of magnitude less than the effects the manipulation scheme had in real physical gold price terms.

Physical Gold on the Exchange Becoming Scarce

I will explain why gold is becoming scarce on the COMEX by starting with a chart of eligible and registered gold stocks on the COMEX.

Eligible stocks are not posted for futures trades until a warrant is attached to them making them “registered”, and simply amount to warehouse storage. They can be titled to anyone and the only way they get put up against futures contracts is if the title owner decides to make it so.

gold eligible stocks

Source: Goldchartsrus.com

So how do I come to the conclusion that warehoused gold is not completely liquid for futures markets transactions? Two reasons: a) because the chart tell us so over time and b) because the CME Group, which runs the COMEX, recently, and very discreetly, told us as much.

The chart clearly shows that since eligible gold stock category was created, the vast majority of gold in COMEX flowed into storage and not subsequent futures trades. Both the total amount and percentage of gold warehoused off of the futures market has increased over time, meaning that gold has largely not been posted for futures delivery again.

A lot of gold gets removed from COMEX after participants take delivery, which is evident in the daily depository reports, found here.

“Eligible” Gold Not Really Eligible for Delivery

As for the CME Group, there was a stunning announcement made earlier this year with respect to the supposed liquidity of gold stocks on the COMEX. On April 9th, 2020 the CME Group released a memo to the CFTC expressing doubt that all eligible gold inventories may not add to liquidity for futures market transactions.

On page 3, the memo notes that the CME Group would discount eligible gold stocks by 50% from deliverable supply. The memo goes on to note that [emphasis mine]:

While surveys conducted indicated no clear consensus as to how much gold is dedicated to long term investments, the Exchange, in an effort to represent a conservative deliverable supply that may be readily available for delivery, made a determination at this time to discount from its estimate of deliverable supply 50% of its reported eligible gold at this time.

In other words, the exchange has no idea how much gold in eligible could be made liquid at any given time for futures contracts, if any, because there is no “consensus” on it. The consensus was based from the opinions of the depositories that hold the physical in storage.

Nor is there any criteria given for future determination of such liquid eligible category gold which led to the following statement in the same paragraph [emphasis mine]:

The Exchange may, at a later date, determine not to discount such stock or to recognize a discount level that is more or less than 50% of reported eligible gold when calculating deliverable supply estimates.

cme memo eligible gold not liquid memo 1

Source: CME Group

In other words, without specific criteria having been established, the CME Group has no factual basis to warrant that any of the eligible gold can be made liquid at a specific point in time for use in futures contract trading.

That leaves the registered stocks which have increased significantly this year. As of now, long gold contracts standing for delivery appear to have reason to expect their gold to be delivered. But for how long as each delivery leads to gold exiting the COMEX, or simply being put into the warehouse for storage?

Implications of the Manipulation

There are two reasons for manipulation of gold on the futures market. One is to increase the price, the second is to decrease it.

Decreasing the price allows exchange members to pull the gold off of the exchange at discount to market prices. All of the recent spoofing of gold, including Scotia who was recently also fined $127 million for doing the same thing as JP Morgan in the gold market, has been to the short side.

We know this because the bullion banks have been net short of the precious metals for some time, as per the CFTC’s commitment of trader’s report.

cftc report bullion banks

Source: CFTC

Further, see this chart of the largest 4 & 8 largest short traders on the market, in terms of days of production.

concentration commitment of traders 2020

Source: Goldchartsrus.com

Clearly, the short positions on the futures, together with the spoofing manipulations, indicate the bullion banks intended to lower the price of the commodities while taking possession of the physical metals with their longs contracts.

See the following chart on Scotia Mocatta, the gold trading arm of Bank of Scotia, and where the gold went while they were spoofing the price of gold down.

scotia mocatta gold stocks

Source: Goldchartsrus.com

A different dynamic from JP Morgan, though no less telling. Lots of gold standing in the warehouse and not posted to registered for futures delivery, which would have had the effect of dwindling the eligible stores over time.

jp morgan gold stocksSource: Goldchartsrus.com

Summary

 

There does not appear to be a lot of data that indicates either Scotia or JP Morgan intended to increase the price of gold while it was acquired in their COMEX warehouse stores.

The only change to this trend was the increase on COMEX gold in 2020 in JP Morgan’s account, while the rest of the world dealt with physical supply shortages and before JP Morgan was fined the billion for spoofing.

Logic dictates the price spoofing the bullion banks have been fined for led to price-suppressed gold coming off the futures exchange and into the hands of the bullion banks and their clients.

Who are their clients? Perhaps only the CME group, the bullion banks, and the CFTC know the answer to this question. And so far, they have never divulged this information.

END

ANDREW MAGUIRE..discussion on Rico charges

Andrew Maguire

8:15 AM (14 minutes ago)
to Chris, me

In this interview with Portfolio Wealth Global we  discuss Rico charges etc. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjBR0iGDmZA

Attachments area

Preview YouTube video ANDREW MAGUIRE: WHISTLEBLOWER! Triple-Digit SILVER By Next Year! COMEX RAIDED!

ANDREW MAGUIRE: WHISTLEBLOWER! Triple-Digit SILVER By Next Year! COMEX RAIDED!

END

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED / LAST AT: 6.8182/ 

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8203   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 6.82 POINTS OR 0.21%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 200.52 POINTS OR 0.85%

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 27.45 POINTS OR 0.12%

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED EXCEPT ITALY/

 

 

 

USA dollar index DOWN TO 94.05/Euro RISES TO 1.1704

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.65/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 40.28 and Brent: 42.16

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.54%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.85% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.22%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.39: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.03

3k Gold at $1885.40 silver at: 23.85   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 10/100 in roubles/dollar) 79.00

3m oil into the 40 dollar handle for WTI and 42 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.65 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9229 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0795 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.54%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.655% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.411%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.8387..CLOSE TO BANKRUPTCY

Stock Rally Fizzles, Futures Fade Ahead Of First Presidential Debate

If yesterday’s scorching rally was ascribed to optimism over covid vaccines and a fiscal stimulus deal, then today’s subdued action can best be described as covid pessimism amid a rising number of pandemic deaths and a cloudy outlook on U.S. fiscal stimulus. Sure enough, a rally in S&P futures fizzled overnight with Eminis trading flat as European shares slipped on Tuesday ahead of a pivotal U.S. presidential debate while waiting for signs of progress on a fiscal stimulus package in Washington and the latest consumer confidence reading. The dollar dipped and Treasurys were unchanged for yet another day.

US shares were set to open a touch lower, with futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq giving up earlier gains to slip into negative territory. Hard-hit sectors like hotels, banks and airlines had made strong gains on Monday, as the market’s back-and-forth action continues. Sorrento Therapeutics rose 8% in premarket trading after the drugmaker said both of its COVID-19 antibody candidates showed potent neutralizing activities against the novel coronavirus in a study in Syrian golden hamsters. Tesla fell 3.1% in premarket trading after three consecutive days of gains. Tesla secured its own lithium mining rights in Nevada after dropping a plan to buy a company there, according to people familiar with the matter

A flurry of underwhelming macro-economic data which have hammered the Citi US econ surprise index, increase in virus cases and uncertainty related to the presidential election have weighed on markets, putting all three main indexes on track for their worst monthly performance since March.

However, as Q3 comes to an end and despite September’s expected decline, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are set for their best two-quarter winning streaks since 2009 and 2000, respectively.

The MSCI world equity index was flat. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 0.3%, eroding some of Monday’s generous gains, with indexes in Frankfurt, Paris and London losing between 0.2% and 0.5%. Banks and cyclical stocks led the retreat in European stocks after yesterday’s rally, the biggest upswing since June. Among other sectors in negative territory were automakers and travel & leisure, down 0.8%-1.5%.

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat, shedding earlier gains with utilities falling and IT rising. Most markets in the region were down, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropping 0.9% and Jakarta Composite falling 0.6%, while South Korea’s Kospi Index gained 0.9%. The Topix declined 0.2%, with Saxa Holdings and W-Scope falling the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2%, with Anhui Tongfeng Electronics and Jiangsu Sinojit Wind Energy Technology posting the biggest advances. Chinese property and banking stocks fall in Hong Kong, following a report about tighter restrictions on housing mortgages.

The global covid pandemic has now claimed 1 million deaths globally as major developed and emerging economies continue to have a hard time to contain the coronavirus almost 10 months after it first emerged.

As the global death toll surpassed one million investors have remained focused on prospects for a stimulus package to help the U.S. economy recover from the damage wrought by the virus. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Monday that Democratic lawmakers had unveiled a new, $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief bill. Pelosi in recent days has said she thinks a deal can be reached with the White House on a new coronavirus relief package and that talks were continuing. Mnuchin and Pelosi are set to speak on the proposed bill this morning.

The highlight of today’s calendar is the first presidential debate on Tuesday, with traders pushing up overnight implied volatilities on several major currencies including the yen against the dollar in case of surprises. “Tonight’s debate will be critical, since it represents one of the last set-piece opportunities for either candidate to change the contours of the race,” Deutsche Bank wrote in a note. Needless to say, the stakes are high as the two White House candidates take the stage five weeks before the Nov. 3 election. Biden’s campaign has seized on a fresh line of attack on the eve of the debate with Trump – set for after the U.S. market close – accusing the Republican incumbent of gaming the system to avoid paying his fair share of taxes, even though he himself used tax loopholes to avoid $500,000 in taxes.

Investors continue to weigh the potential impact on the U.S. economy of either the re-election of President Donald Trump or a victory for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Many see a Biden victory increasing the chances of further fiscal stimulus to counter the economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, judging such a scenario positive for stocks. Earlier today, Goldman published a scenario in which it said that “a Democratic sweep could have a modestly positive net impact on the trajectory of S&P 500 profits.” In other words, either a Trump or Biden win is good for stocks.

JPMorgan agreed: “What seems clear is that were you to see a blue wave, a Democratic sweep, you’d see substantial fiscal stimulus,” said Mike Bell, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “The risk, I have always thought, to this recovery is premature fiscal tightening.”

In FX, the dollar eased back against a basket of currencies at 94.185, drifting away from a two-month high of 94.745 reached last week. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was lower for a second day, with the greenback trading weaker against most of its Group-of-10 peers, though most crosses were confined to relatively tight ranges. The euro edged up versus the dollar as institutional investors come back from the sidelines to buy the euro afresh this week, while the pound was buoyed by recent optimistic reports around Brexit and hopes for U.S. stimulus. The Australian dollar rallied for a second day on quarter-end demand from exporters and offshore funds bidding for the currency to settle bond purchases.

Elsewhere, sterling extended its overnight gains on optimism about a Brexit trade deal as the European Union and Britain kicked off a decisive week of talks. The pound gained 0.2% to $1.2853, just below the $1.2930 mark touched overnight. Against the euro, sterling changed hands at 90.775 pence. “The surge of the pound yesterday was a reflection of the more positive mood-music as the talks kicked off,” MUFG analysts wrote, adding the pound could extend gains this week.

In rates, it was another quiet start to the session with Treasury yields – which have frozen in recent weeks – trading within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels on below-average futures volumes, long end outperforming slightly. Focal points include consumer confidence data, New York Fed conference on Treasury market and first presidential debate tonight. The 10-year yield near flat at 0.654% with bunds and gilts both outperforming by ~1bp; futures volume was ~80% of 20-day average through 7am ET. Stimulus packages were also in focus in bond markets, where Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell to its lowest in seven weeks before first-estimate inflation readings for September.

In commodities, oil edged down toward $40 in New York as traders braced for over a year before demand returns to pre-covid levels. Gold rose, trading at $1,885 last as the dollar declined.

Looking at the day ahead, the aforementioned first presidential debate is likely to be the highlight, while the ninth round of negotiations begins between the UK and the EU on their future relationship. Central bank speakers today include Fed Vice Chair Quarles and Vice Chair Clarida, along with New York Fed President Williams and Philadelphia Fed President Harker. Finally, data releases include US wholesale inventories, along with the Conference Board consumer confidence reading for September. Micron is reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,339.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 362.17
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to -0.541%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1679
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.675%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 0.23%
  • MXAP down 0.04% to 170.28
  • MXAPJ up 0.05% to 553.15
  • Nikkei up 0.1% to 23,539.10
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,658.10
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.9% to 23,275.53
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,224.36
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 38,030.63
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 unchanged at 5,952.06
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,327.89
  • Brent futures down 0.5% to $42.21/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,883.97
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 94.19

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Stimulus talks between the Trump administration and congressional Democrats will reach a fork in the road on Tuesday as both sides either quickly seal a deal or the House moves to pass a Democratic proposal and leave town for pre-election campaigning; House Democrats released a scaled back $2.2 trillion proposal to extend support to the U.S. economy in face of the continuing damage from the coronavirus pandemic
  • Economic confidence in the euro area continued to improve in September, albeit at a slower pace as resurgent virus infections cast uncertainty over the outlook. A European Commission sentiment index rose for a fifth month to 91.1, exceeding economists’ median estimate
  • Germany may join other European nations in limiting the number of people at private and public gatherings in areas with high coronavirus infection rates, as officials across the continent labor to reverse a recent uptick in cases
  • Boris Johnson’s officials are working on a compromise deal with rebels in his own Conservative party in an attempt to avoid a damaging defeat over the U.K. government’s coronavirus strategy
  • The U.K. could be facing a long-term increase in the size of the state as well as a substantial tax increase as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The influential research group said Tuesday it is “highly plausible” that government spending is around 45% of gross domestic product by the middle of the decade, a level not sustained since the 1970s

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asian equity markets traded mixed as the region struggled to make the most of the firm tailwinds from Wall St where all major indices notched respectable gains led by cyclicals and amid month and quarter-end flows. ASX 200 (Unch.) and Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) were mixed throughout most of the session with Australia kept afloat by outperformance in tech after PM Morrison confirmed an AUD 800mln commitment for measures related to new digital technology but with upside capped by weakness in consumer and mining-related sectors, while the Tokyo benchmark initially lagged on a retreat from the 23,500 level before mounting a late recovery, with NTT DoCoMo in focus after news that NTT was mulling taking the Co. private. This resulted to a glut of buy orders for NTT DoCoMo which was untraded and weighed on the shares of its parent, while telecom rivals KDDI and SoftBank Corp were hit as the buyout deal could speed up the Suga government’s agenda for lower fees considering that the government is also the largest shareholder in NTT. Hang Seng (-0.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) diverged with indecision seen after another PBoC liquidity drain, as well as heading into tomorrow’s PMI data and the start of Golden Week holidays on Thursday, with Hong Kong lacklustre as yesterday’s HSBC-led surge petered out and amid IPO-related developments with ZTO Express debuting in the HKEX. Finally, 10yr JGBs were choppy alongside similar indecision in Japanese stocks with early gains in JGBs spurred as Japanese stocks initially lagged and with support just above the 152.00 psychological level, although the moves were later retraced as sentiment in Tokyo gradually improved and following mixed results at the 2yr JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • China Developers, Banks Drop After Report of Mortgage Limits
  • China Looks to Normalize Monetary Policy as Economy Stabilizes
  • Singapore Airlines Turns A380 Superjumbo Into Pop-Up Restaurant
  • Goldman Joins JPMorgan in Building Singapore Forex Trading Hub

The European equity space mostly trades with mild losses (-0.3%) as the region unwinds some of yesterday’s gains after sentiment faded throughout the APAC hours into early European doors. US equity futures meanwhile hover just below-par but with the depth of losses relatively shallow ahead of the US Presidential debate. Broad-based losses are seen across EU bourses but UK’s FTSE (-0.5%) modestly lags on account of a firmer Sterling coupled with underperformance in the Energy and Financials sectors, with the former on the back of energy prices and the latter seemingly a reversal of yesterday’s firm gains. No real risk profile can be derived from sectors themselves, whilst the sectoral breakdown sees yesterday’s winners at the foot of the pile. In terms of individual movers, HSBC (-3.5%) resides towards the bottom of the Stoxx 600 as it reverses some of yesterday’s gains. Maersk (+2.6%) is propped up by two separate broker upgrades at Jefferies and Goldman Sachs. Finally, William Hill (+0.7%) experiences modest gains after reports that Betfred is interested in acquiring the Co’s shops in the UK, whilst reports stated that two other parties are interested in the entirety of William Hill’s non-US businesses.

Top European News

  • Macron Gives Belarus Opposition Leader Highest-Ranking Meeting
  • EQT Said to Weigh IPO of German Facilities Manager Apleona
  • Nokia Expands 5G Deal With U.K.’s BT to Fill Huawei Void
  • Valmet Targets Neles Merger, Jeopardizing $2 Billion Deal

In FX, it’s quite tight at the top of the major ranks as Aud/Usd tests 0.7100+ levels in wake of another steady October RBA rate outlook overnight, this time from Citi, while the Kiwi hovers below 0.6600 and 1.0800 vs its US and Antipodean counterparts in advance of NZ building consents.

  • GBP/EUR – Also firmer against the Greenback, as Sterling consolidates around 1.2850 and above 0.9100 vs the Euro amidst more positive sounding Brexit vibes. According to latest media reports, the EU has relented on its criteria for crafting a joint trade deal text that required a broad agreement on all outstanding issues, while head of the European Commission von der Leyen has repeated that she is ‘convinced’ a pact with the UK is possible.and Euro in the high 1.1600 area, still defying relatively strong month end sell signals vs the Buck and weak Eurozone inflation data from the German states indicating a clear downward bias to the flat y/y national consensus. However, Eur/Usd remains bearish from a chart perspective while closing below a key fib retracement level just below 1.1700.
  • CHF/CAD – Both narrowly mixed against a rather flat, lethargic US Dollar as the DXY idles between 94.070-298 parameters, with the Franc and Loonie within confined 0.9250-34 and 1.3391-56 respective ranges ahead of the Swiss KOF indicator and Canadian PPI on Wednesday.
  • JPY – The G10 laggard and pivoting away from decent option expiries at 105.00 and 105.30-35 (2.6 bn and 1.5 bn) vs the Usd, but the Yen is closer to interest at 123.20 (1.8 bn) in Eur cross terms in the midst of a series of expiries spanning 122.00 through 124.00.
  • SCANDI/EM – Little reaction to a raft of Swedish sentiment metrics or another Riksbank reminder that the Sek is not currently a decisive factor for policy deliberations as the Crown straddles 10.5500 vs the Euro. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflict are prompting further underperformance in the Turkish Lira and Russian Rouble to the extent that an improvement in economic confidence and the promise of more normalisation steps to support financial stability have not prevented Usd/Try from rallying beyond 7.8500. Meanwhile, the CBR has been forced to ramp up its daily interventions by Rub 2.9 bn from October 1 and until December on top of current operations, as it slides towards 80.0000.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures see mild losses of some USD 0.30/bbl a piece, coinciding with the broad losses across European equities amid a lack of fresh fundamentals for the energy complex. Eyes remain on the demand side of the equation as the global COVID-19 death tally surpasses 1mln. Elsewhere, in terms of the of the Azeri-Armenian conflict, the Azeri State Oil Company reassured that the country’s oil infrastructures are safe, which comes amid concern that the recent clashed could impact production or pipeline facilities. The session also saw comments from Vitol’s CEO, who noted that he sees the price of oil “up a bit in the next six months”, and added they have “modest expectations”. Aside from that, crude-specific news flow has been scarce. WTI Nov meanders just above the USD 40/bbl mark after dipping from a high of 40.70/bbl, whilst its Brent counterpart narrowly holds onto a USD 42/bbl level having has tested the level to the downside overnight. Precious metals meanwhile remain contained within tight ranges – with spot gold just north of USD 1880/oz after taking a jab at USD 1875/oz to the downside in APAC hours, whilst spot silver holds its head above USD 23.50/oz ahead of today’s US debate showdown. LME copper prices ease in tandem with the overall risk sentiment. Separately, Dalian iron ore futures were supported overnight as Vale said it was suspending operations at a Brazilian concentration plant.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $81.8b deficit, prior $79.3b deficit
  • 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.05%, prior -0.3%; Retail Inventories MoM, est. 1.05%, prior 1.2%
  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.1%, prior 0.0%; 20-City YoY NSA, est. 3.6%, prior 3.46%
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 90, prior 84.8; Present Situation, prior 84.2; Expectations, prior 85.2

Fed speakers:

  • 8:25am: Fed’s Held Discusses Libor Countdown
  • 9:15am: Fed’s Williams Speaks at Treasury Market Conference
  • 9:30am: Fed’s Harker Discusses Machine Learning
  • 11:40am: Fed’s Clarida to Moderate Panel on Treasury Market
  • 1pm: Fed’s Williams Takes Part in a Fireside Chat
  • 1pm: Fed’s Quarles to Speak on Panel on Financial Regulation
  • 3pm: Fed Quarles to Speak on Financial Stability Webinar

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Risk assets began the week on a strong note yesterday, as investors’ focus remained on US politics ahead of tonight’s all-important first debate. By the close, the S&P 500 was up +1.61% following four consecutive weekly declines, in a broad-based advance that saw every sector and more than 93% of the index move higher on the day. Cyclicals such as banks (+2.73%), autos (+2.68%), and energy (+2.33%) all led the index higher, while tech was more in the middle of the pack as the NASDAQ rose +1.87%. Europe saw some even stronger moves as the STOXX 600 (+2.22%) and the DAX (+3.22%) both saw their best day since June, in spite of continued concerns on the continent over the coronavirus. Banks outperformed on both sides of the Atlantic, with the STOXX Banks (+5.63%) and the S&P 500 Banks (+2.73%) both having their strongest day in over a month. With the European bank index hitting 32-year lows last week this could be seen as welcome relief.

As mentioned, the likely highlight for markets today will actually come after tonight’s US close when President Trump and Joe Biden debate for the first time at 21:00 ET. We’ll bring you the run-down in tomorrow’s edition, but with futures indicating heightened volatility around Election Day across multiple asset classes, tonight’s debate will be critical, since it represents one of the last set-piece opportunities for either candidate to change the contours of the race, not least with the large number of early mail-in votes expected to be cast this year thanks to the pandemic.

In terms of the state of play, Biden still has the advantage ahead of tonight, with the RealClearPolitics polling average putting him +6.8pts ahead of Trump, while Biden is also ahead in most of the battleground states. In retrospect, few elections have hinged on a debate, but a number have shaken up the race over the years, and there’s obviously the potential for major downside if a candidate commits a significant gaffe. Indeed back in 2012, Republican nominee Mitt Romney surged in the polls following his strong performance in the first debate, though it wasn’t enough to win that November. As a reminder, subject to news developments, the topics expected to be covered tonight include the Trump and Biden records; the Supreme Court; Covid-19; the economy; race and violence in our cities; and the integrity of the election.

Staying with US politics, talk of fiscal stimulus helped equities yesterday, after Speaker Pelosi told CNN over the weekend that House Democrats still see a possibility of Fiscal stimulus getting done. Pelosi said they can get a deal done but that the White House had to increase their current offer, with Democrats and Republicans remaining over $1 trillion dollars apart. She reportedly met with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin over the weekend and again on Monday, with her spokesman saying the two agreed to continue conversing in the coming week. Overnight, Democrats have unveiled a $2.2tn pandemic relief bill with media reports indicating that the House could vote on it later this week. However it’s not clear how much traction will this get in the Senate. The plan includes new aid for airlines, restaurants and small businesses that wasn’t in the earlier version which the House passed in May. The bill also seeks to provide another round of $1,200 direct relief payments to individuals and $500 per dependent. It also has $600 per week in extra unemployment benefits through January, the same amount that expired in July. Meanwhile, with Senate leadership moving along with the Supreme Court confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett, Mnuchin and Pelosi are the most important figures in the fight for additional fiscal funds.

While we are on politics, here in the UK, The Times reported that the EU negotiators have indicated for the first time that they are prepared to start writing a joint legal text of a trade agreement with the UK, before fresh Brexit talks begin today. This is potentially a significant move by the bloc as it is stepping away from its previous demand that the two sides should reach a broad agreement on all the outstanding areas of dispute before drafting a final agreement. However, in return the UK side is expected to engage in discussions on post-Brexit fishing quotas and the government’s future subsidy policy, two of the biggest remaining sticking points. Cable is up +0.20% this morning to $1.2860.

Asian markets are following Wall Street’s lead this morning with the Shanghai Comp (+0.52%), Kospi (+1.02%) and India’s Nifty (+0.25%) all up. The Nikkei (+0.01%) is trading broadly flat as most stocks are trading ex-dividend while the Hang Seng (-0.25%) is down. Futures on the S&P 500 are also up +0.35%. In other overnight news, the BoJ’s summary of opinions from the last meeting in mid-September indicated that some board members discussed whether a new policy approach is needed in the age of Covid-19 to hit an increasingly distant price goal.

Unsurprisingly Covid-19 remains in the spotlight as speculation continues that there’ll be further restrictions heading into the winter months, particularly in Europe where cases have risen noticeably in recent weeks. Reports from Germany yesterday said that German Chancellor Merkel warned an internal party conference that the country could see 19,200 infections per day by Christmas, while in the UK it was announced that households in the North-East of England would face further restrictions on mixing between households in any indoor setting. You can see the latest new cases table below. Some of the daily numbers are still impacted by weekend reporting so the 7 day rolling figure is best.

Staying with the virus, in the US, President Trump announced that the Federal government will be sending 100 million rapid-result tests to states which can help with efforts to get students back to school. The single-use tests are the size of credit cards and give results in just 15 minutes, allowing them to be administered nearly anywhere. Such quick testing has been discussed a fair amount of late and could be the bridge to getting life back towards some normality prior to their being a vaccine. However we need to see evidence that they work and for mass roll out first.

Moving across to Europe, the euro pared back gains somewhat yesterday as ECB President Lagarde spoke before a European Parliament committee, though the main headlines from her statement were in line with the last press conference. In terms of the headlines, Lagarde noted that the ECB is ready to deploy more monetary stimulus if the economic recovery falters. Lagarde did not comment on the specific level of the Euro, and reiterated that the strength of the currency is not a policy target for the ECB. Meanwhile, a Reuters report citing ECB sources said that policymakers in the ECB were increasingly divided on the economic response to Covid-19, with the report saying that the hawks viewed the economic forecasts as too pessimistic and wanted the central bank to reduce its bond purchases.

Against this backdrop, it was a fairly steady day for sovereign bonds in Europe, with a slight narrowing of peripheral spreads in line with the broader rally for risk assets. In terms of the moves, yields on 10yr bunds (+0.1bps) saw a modest increase, while those on Italian (-0.7bps) and Spanish bonds (-0.2bps) both saw a modest decline. Over in the US meanwhile, 10yr Treasury yields ended the day down -0.2bps at 0.653%. The rise in risk assets saw the US dollar have its worst day in a month, falling -0.38%. The drop in the dollar saw commodities rise with WTI (+0.87%) and Brent (+1.22%) gaining moderately, along with other industrial inputs like copper (+0.55%). Gold rose +1.07% in its best day since late August.

Sterling performed strongly yesterday, with a +0.69% advance against the falling US dollar, as more hawkish monetary policy comments supported the currency alongside a little more optimism surrounding Brexit in recent days. The policy comments of note came from Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden, who said on negative interest rates that “We’re not about to use them imminently”, in comments dated September 20, which went against more positive comments over the weekend from the MPC’s Silvana Tenreyro, who said that there’d been “encouraging” evidence when it came to the policy.

To the day ahead now, and the aforementioned first presidential debate is likely to be the highlight, while the ninth round of negotiations begins between the UK and the EU on their future relationship. Central bank speakers today include Fed Vice Chair Quarles and Vice Chair Clarida, along with New York Fed President Williams and Philadelphia Fed President Harker. Finally, data releases include UK mortgage approvals for August, the Euro Area’s final consumer confidence reading for September, the preliminary September reading of German CPI, the preliminary August reading of US wholesale inventories, along with the Conference Board consumer confidence reading for September.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.82 POINTS OR 0.21%  //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 200.52 POINTS OR 0.85%   /The Nikkei closed UP 27.48 POINTS OR 0.12%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .11%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8172 /Oil UP TO 40.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and 42.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.8172 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8203 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 7:1//TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

MADRID/SPAIN/CORONAVIRUS AFFAIRS

Madrid Erupts As Citizens Clash With Police During Anti-Lockdown Riots

London wasn’t the only European city where frustrated denizens took to the streets in anger to protest another round of COVID-19-inspired lockdowns. Madrid saw anti-lockdown protests blossom into full-on riots – as they were described in the Spanish press – as clashes between citizens and police grew increasingly violent.

Last week, the city council imposed new restrictions on more than 1 million inhabitants of Madrid, as they expanded the number of COVID-19 hot spots to 45. Localized restrictions on movement were similar to those imposed during the lockdown in the spring, though not as harsh.

Over the weekend, thousands of Spaniards streamed into the streets of Madrid. Dozens of residents were involved in violent clashes with the police.

Demonstrating that American cops don’t have a monopoly on police brutality, one Spanish cop was filmed headbutting a detained man.

Protests weren’t confined to Madrid. They were widespread over the weekend across areas such as Usera, Puente de Vallecas, Villa de Vallecas, Villaverde, Ciudad Lineal, Vicálvaro, San Blas and Carabanchel.

Over one million people are subject to the new localized lockdown restrictions and may only leave their homes for work, medical or educational purposes and only if they carry supporting documents. Poorer and migrant workers who rely on public transit to get to jobs in the construction industry say these measures discriminate against them.

Madrid is presently one of the worst-hit cities in all of Europe, with an infection rate of roughly 1,000 cases per 100,000 residents.

END

GREECE/TURKEY
The conflict between Greece and Turkey explained beautifully
(Turbeville/Organic Prepper)

What’s The Conflict Between Greece And Turkey All About?

Authored by Brandon Turbeville via The Organic Prepper blog,

The majority of people tend to think of the concept of history as if it is something relegated only to the past. As if they are not living through what will become history in the future. Doing so allows them to maintain a thought process that convinces them that world wars and European wars, in general, are over.

After all, Europe learned its lesson in the Big One – and the Big One after that.  Of course, with any such incident, there’s history, and there’s what actually happened.

If things between Greece and Turkey don’t cool down, a European/Mediterranean war will ensue.

Such a war would not be merely European but Euro-Asian and, at its furthest reach, global.

With Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman desires at the forefront, Turkey is expanding its national borders, with what Erdogan seems to believe will resurrect the Ottoman Empire. From Iraq to Syria and Libya, Turkey has attempted to either gain territory or forcefully make a seat at the international table through military action. Now, however, Turkey is threatening Greece as well and, as a result, Europe.

Turkey’s actions may well result in a global confrontation if cooler heads do not prevail. Political motives and deep state intrigue are not allowed to repeat themselves as they did in the first World War. Anyone who offers a so-called “perfect solution” is often using difficult times to take more control.

A brief history of the current conflict

Greek and Turkish relations have, for the most part, always been tense. Some brief historical context helps to understand the historical antipathy held toward one another by Greece and Turkey, at least at the national level.

As Victor Davis Hanson wrote for FOX News in his article “Turkey vs. Greece – here’s why this centuries-old rivalry matters now,”

Turkey is a Muslim country and was once the Ottoman Empire that ruled much of the Islamic world. Greece is still surrounded by Muslim countries.

Turks are quick to remind everyone that from the late 15th Century to the early 19th Century, most of Greece and the Aegean Islands belonged to the Ottoman Empire.

In modern times, after the bitterness over the Cyprus crisis of 1974 and years of socialist governments, Greece was vehemently anti-American despite shared Western traditions.

In contrast, Turkey once prided itself on its secular customs institutionalized by its first modern, pro-Western president, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. His successors until recently were pro-American autocrats.

Now, geostrategic relations have flipped. Both nations remain NATO members, but Greece, not Turkey, is also a member of the European Union. Turkish northern Cyprus is largely considered a rogue territory, while democratic Greek Cyprus is an EU member.

Moreover, Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become an increasingly Islamic state, often hostile to the U.S. It likes to leverage its NATO membership to advance its new Middle East agendas.

It is Turkey, not Greece, that has been acting provocatively on the world stage. It recently refashioned the iconic Hagia Sophia cathedral, built by the Byzantine emperor Justinian in the sixth century-long one of the most iconic churches of the Christian world – from a museum into a mosque.

The tensions between Greece and Turkey are primarily over energy and territorial rights

However, those tensions carry with them quite a bit of baggage. This baggage is not only historical but also relatively recent. That is what makes the issue so dangerous.

Turkey and Greece both have overlapping claims to areas in the Eastern Mediterranean that are rich with gas. Greece argues that each of its thousands of islands is entitled to its own continental shelf and their own exclusive Greek drilling rights.

But Turkey disagrees

Turkey argues that Greece’s claims are an unrealistic interpretation of international law and encroach upon Turkey’s exclusive economic zone.

This disagreement came to a head when Turkey began seismic tests in the Mediterranean Sea in areas Greece claims as it’s territorial waters. Greece was angered and dispatched its armed forces to the area, but Turkey still went ahead with the tests.

On August 14, Greek and Turkish warships were involved in a “minor collision” due to the standoff that Greece described as an accident, but Turkey predictably labeled a “provocation.”

Both sides continue to warn that they are not afraid of outright war

The EU supports Greece and has gone so far as to sanction Turkey for the seismic surveys off the Northern Cypriot coast, warning Turkey against any further provocations. There are also several other factors contributing to the Greek/Turkish friction. First, there is the question of the massive number of immigrants Turkey has held and used as a battering ram and bargaining chip with the rest of Europe.

In previous articles, I wrote at the height of the migrant push into Europe how Turkey was directing migrants’ flow and intentionally selecting specific types of migrants (those of a more fundamentalist variety) to send abroad. Greece was, of course, one of the heaviest hit when Erdogan “opened the gates.”

In July of this year, Turkey announced the re-conversion of Istanbul’s Hagia Sophia into a mosque. This re-conversion enraged a sizeable amount of the Greek population. Religious tensions and a centuries-old debate reignited.

Despite Turkey’s clear aggression in the Mediterranean, Joseph Hincks of TIME writes,

Turkey’s muscular approach to the contested waters enjoys bipartisan support. Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), voiced support for the Mediterranean drilling program. Securing lucrative energy resources in a region where Turkey finds itself increasingly isolated also enjoys popular social backing, experts say. “Erdogan’s adventure in the Eastern Mediterranean probably has more support than any of his other regional adventures,” says Emile Hokayem, a Middle East security expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The other players

The friction between Greece and Turkey affects many more countries than just the leading two players. For instance, the European Union as a whole is at risk of being drawn into a confrontation not only between an EU member and a powerful Asian nation but between two members of NATO.

While that might sound like bad news for Turkey, this puts the EU itself at risk of confrontation between member states in a coalition centered around whose interests lie with Turkey, Greece, or some other effected third-party nation.

You don’t need to look far to see how this could happen either

French President Emmanuel Macron has publicly stated that France will play a larger role in international affairs. Most likely due to his incredibly weakened and failing status at home (another article, another time).

Now, France is becoming involved in the Greek-Turkey row, publicly criticizing Turkey, demanding that it remove its ships and even placing French fighter jets in Cyprus as a deterrent. France indicates that it will sell several French jets to Greece, all moves that anger Turkey.

Even Jacques Attali is getting in on the action. “We have to hear what Turkey says,” he writes, “take it very seriously and be prepared to act by all means. If our predecessors had taken the Führer’s speeches seriously from 1933 to 1936, they could have prevented this monster from the accumulating the means to do what he did.”

But the EU is not necessarily unified in its view of the conflict

Germany has tried to sound neutral but has long ties with Turkey if for no other reason than the massive number of Turkish immigrants in Germany and the large Turkish community. Germany is now attempting to act as a mediator between the two parties by offering Turkey an “enhanced customs union” with the EU. Spain and Italy seem to be following Germany’s lead in that direction also.

Patrick Wintour has written an interesting for The Guardian about this standoff entitled, “How A Rush For Mediterranean Gas Threatens To Push Greece And Turkey Into A War,” where he says the following:

An increasingly fractious standoff over access to gas reserves has transformed a dispute between Turkey and Greece that was once primarily over Cyprus into one that now ensnares Libya, Israel, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, and feeds into other political issues in the Mediterranean and has raised fears of a naval conflict between the two Nato allies in the Aegean Sea.

The crisis has been deepening in recent months with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, leading those inside the EU opposing Turkey’s increasingly military foreign policy and saying Turkey can no longer be seen as partner in the Mediterranean. He has offered French military support to the Greek prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, including the possible sale of 18 Rafale jets.

The issue was on the agenda of a meeting of the Med7 group of southern Mediterranean leaders on the French island of Corsica on Thursday and again at an EU council meeting on September 23 that will discuss imposing severe sanctions on the already struggling Turkish banking sector over its demand for access to large swaths of the eastern Mediterranean.

Germany, the lead mediator between Turkey and Greece, is exploring an enhanced customs union between Turkey and the EU to calm the dispute, which has been exacerbated by vast hydrocarbon discoveries over the past decade in the eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey has long sought a broader customs union with the EU, and although Greece might see any such offer as a reward for bullying, Germany believes both carrots and sticks are needed to persuade Turkey to change its strategy.

But Germany is also warning Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, that his current unilateral strategy is a commercial dead end, since no private gas company is going to touch cooperation with Turkey if it is trying to exploit illegal claims on gas reserves.

Macron has already increased the French naval presence in the sea and called for the withdrawal of the Turkish reconnaissance ship Oruç Reis, accompanied by Turkish naval ships. The ship is undertaking seismic surveys in Greek waters south of Cyprus.

The fear that the conflict could spiral out of control has led to an urgent search for a neutral arbitrator and an agreed agenda for talks. An effort by Nato to start technical naval deconfliction talks was delayed after Greece objected to Nato’s involvement. The Greek foreign minister, Nikos Dendias, insisted that the talks would start only when the threats stopped. He then flew to New York to enlist the help of the UN secretary-general, António Guterres.

There are more players for no other reason than energy exploration.

The size of the reserves for which Turkey is attempting to lay claim inspired Israel, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Jordan, and Palestine form an East Med Gas forum to develop a plan to extract and export gas from the same region.

France wants to join that forum, and the UAE is a supporter as well. This forum has effectively created an anti-Turkish coalition (though Italy’s position is less clear) regarding this conflict.

There is even more to the story, particularly regarding the Libyan question.

Initially, many thought that the Turkish intervention in the Libyan civil war (following America and NATO’s tragic war there) was merely Erdogan acting out. Erdogan had other ideas, most notably a maritime treaty that he was rewarded with for his support by the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).

Of course, Turkey supports the GNA and has become involved military and by proxy in support of that government while Russia, UAE, Egypt, and France are supporting Khalifa Haftars’ Libyan National Army (LNA).

Turkey’s newfound maritime treaty with the GNA gives Turkey drilling rights and essentially ignores Crete’s existence, contradicting all previously understood Greek and Cypriot drilling rights.

Thus, Egypt and Greece have now signed a maritime agreement that Turkey has labeled null and void. Egypt’s al-Sisi has even gone so far as to threaten to intervene militarily against Turkey in Libya, now putting those two countries in a place where the possibility of a direct military confrontation is a very real one, not to mention a conflict between each of their allies.

The UAE has already sent a number of US-manufactured jets to Libya and has taken part in military drills with Greece off Crete’s island.

And Russia’s role?

Joseph Hincks writes,

Russia has yet to make a public statement on the Greece–Turkey tensions but it is deeply entrenched in both the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea, where Erdogan recently announced Turkey’s biggest ever gas find. The U.S. Navy’s top admiral in Europe warned last year that Moscow is in the process of turning the eastern Mediterranean into one of the world’s most militarized zones, in part as a result of building up a naval hub at the Syrian port of Tartus. Greek media reported this week that the Russian Navy has gathered nine military vessels between Cyprus and Syria, including three submarines.

If any of this sounds familiar, it should.

If any of this sounds familiar, it should. Just before World War 1, a tangled mess of alliances had been created by a perfect mix of cunning by some nations and a dose of folly by others to result in one of the greatest tragedies of the 20th Century.[1]

World War 1 led to the Russian Revolution’s tragedies, the rise of Adolph Hitler, and World War 2, where the order was re-invented yet again. Now, that order is being challenged but not in a way that will result in greater freedom and prosperity for the world’s people. Indeed, it will result in quite the opposite.

There is no way to predict whether or not the Greek-Turkish row will become a military clash or even a war, much less a global one. But the puzzle pieces are there and slowly being put together just as they were over a hundred years ago.

The odds are that it won’t happen. But then again, the odds were that it wouldn’t happen the first time.

END

EU/RUSSIA/BELARUS/ETC

A good one…The Saker describes the latest in worldly events..a big chess game and the Europeans will be losers..

(zerohedge)

“The World Has Gone Absolutely Insane!”

Authored by The Saker via The Vineyard of The Saker blog,

We all know that we are living in crazy, and dangerous, times, yet I can’t help being awed at what the imperial propaganda machine (aka the legacy ziomedia) is trying to make us all swallow. The list of truly batshit crazy stuff we are being told to believe is now very long, and today I just want to pick on a few of my “favorites” (so to speak).

First, of course, comes the “Novichok Reloaded” scandal around the alleged poisoning of the so-called “dissident” Alexei Navalnyi. I already mentioned this absolutely ridiculous story once, so I won’t repeat it all here. I just want to mention a few very basic facts:

  • Navalnyi is pretty much a discredited non-entity in Russia. “Putin” (because this is how the imperial propaganda machine always personalizes the evils of Russia: “Putin” did this or that, as if Putin was personally in every alleged Russian evil deed) had absolutely and exactly zero reasons to harm Navalnyi in any way. I would even add that IF Navalnyi was poisoned in Russia (which I do not believe) then the FSB screwed up by not offering him 24/7 protection, especially in the current political climate (i.e. struggle for the completion of North Stream 2).
  • The Empire always likes to produce a “sacrificial lamb” to symbolize the putative evil of the nation which dares to resist. In Iran it was Neda, in Kuwait the infamous “incubator babies”, in Syria anonymous kids killed by Russian gas, and in Russia it was Nemtsov (did not really work) and now Navalnyi (I wonder who the sacrificial lamb will be in Belarus (Tikhanovskaia?). The FSB should have seen this coming, especially after Nemtsov.
  • There is exactly zero evidence that the mineral water bottle which the Germans claim contained traces of, what else, “Novichok”, ever was anywhere near Navalnyi or even that it ever was in Russia. No such bottle was found by, or mentioned to the Russian investigators. This bottle was, allegedly, hidden from the FSB by Navalnyi supporters, and secretly brought to Germany. What that means in terms of “chain of custody” is self-evident.
  • As I have mentioned in my past article, if what the German authorities are claiming is true, then the Russians are truly the dumbest imbeciles on the planet. Not content to use this now famous “Novichok” gas against Skripal in the UK and after failing to kill Skripal, these stupid Russians decided to try the very same gas, only “improved”, and they failed again: Navalnyi is quite alive and well, thank you!
  • Then there is this: according to the imperial propaganda machine, Novichok was so horribly dangerous, that the Brits had to use full biosuits to investigate the alleged poisoning of Skripal. They also said that they would completely destroy the dangerous Skripal home (though they never did that). The self same propaganda machine says that the Novichok used on Navalnyi was a more powerful, improved version. Okay. Then try to answer this one: why did the Russians NOT put on biosuits, why did not a single passenger suffer from any side effects (inside a closed aircraft cabin!)? How is it that this super-dooper Novichok not only failed to kill Navalnyi (who, allegedly, ingested it!) but also failed to even moderately inconvenience anybody from the many people Navalnyi was surrounded by on that day?

I could continue to deconstruct all this nonsense, but that would take pages. I will mention two thing though:

First, the Russians have requested any and all evidence available to the Germans and to the Organization for the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons – but they got absolutely nothing in return. Yet the EU is demanding an investigation (which is already under way in Russia anyway!) as if the Russians did not want the exact same!

Second, Navalnyi apparently has an immunity to otherwise deadly Russian biological

After being exposed to an improved Novichok and after weeks in coma in intensive care, here is Navalnyi trotting down stairs feeling great agents, just take a look at him on this post-Novichok photo:

[By the way, the first time around the Brits also never gave the Russians *any* information, nevermind any kind of evidence. Apparently, to hide some super-secret secrets. Yeah, right!]

Next, I absolutely have to mention the absolutely insane situation around Belarus.

To make a long story short, the EU wants to sanction Russia for intervening in Belarus while that self-same EU is intervening in every possible imaginable manner: from the Poles who treat Tikhanovskaia as a modern False Dmitri the Fifth (see here for a summary of Polish-run False Dmitris), to the promise of a special “Marshall Plan for Belarus”, to the coordination of all the protests from Poland. The EU refuses to recognize Lukashenko as the winner (in spite of the fact that there is exactly zero evidence suggesting that Lukashenko lost) and refers to Tikhanovskaia as the “Leader of Belarus” (whatever that means).

As for our US American friends, having learned exactly *nothing* from the abject failure of their Guaido coup in Venezuela, they now want to repeat exactly the same with Tikhanovskaia in Belarus. As a result, Tikhanovskaia has been re-christened “Juanita Guaido”

But the worst are still the Europeans.Not only are they prostituting themselves to the leaders of the Empire, the following countries were the first to declare that they will not recognize Lukashenko as the leader of Belarus: Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia (which is no surprise, they all compete for the title of most pro-US colony on the planet), but also putatively mentally sane countries such as Germany, Czechia, Slovakia, Denmark. The case of Germany is particularly amazing, because Germany will now be placed under immense pressure to cancel North Stream 2, something which the entire German industry opposes. Eventually, the US, Canada, the Ukraine, the UK and the entire EU joined in and also refused to recognize Lukashenko as the leader of Belarus.

What is especially amazing to me is that these EU imbeciles apparently don’t care that without North Stream 2 they will have to purchase US gas, at much higher prices, which will make the EU economy less effective than the US one. And I thought that prostitutes are always acutely aware of the money they can make: not the European ones, apparently.

Still, I think that the “top honor” in this category goes to Poland which, while condemning some undefined Russian intervention in Belarus, runs the NEXTA Telegram channel which runs videos like this one: (in Russian – no, not in Belarusian, they *know* that 99.9999% Belarussians speak Russian):

Oh, but it gets better.

NATO seems to be trying to frighten Russia with maneuvers in Poland and B-52 flights over the Ukraine and the Black Sea (see here for a full analysis). As for the Poles and Ukronazis, they apparently believe that the Russian bear covered himself in poop and ran away at full speed.

What I am going to say next is not a secret, every military person who looked into this issue knows and understands this: NATO, and I mean the combined power of all NATO member states, simply does not have the hardware needed to wage a war against Russia in Europe. What NATO does have is only sufficient to trigger a serious incident which might result in a shooting war. But once this war starts, the chances of victory for NATO are exactly zero. Why?

Well, for one thing, while coalitions of countries might give a thin veneer of political legitimacy to a military action (in reality, only a UNSC resolution would), in purely military terms you are much better off having a single national military. Not only that, but coalitions are nothing but the expression of an often held delusion: the delusion that the little guy can hide behind the back of the big guy. Poland’s entire history can be summarized in this simple principle: strike the weak and bootlick (or even worse!) the powerful. In contrast, real military powers don’t count on some other guy doing the heavy lifting for them. They simply fight until they win.

Yes, the Europeans, being the cowards that they are, do believe that there is safety in numbers. But each time these midgets gang up on Russia and start barking (or, to use Putin’s expression, start oinking) all together, the Russians clearly see that the Europeans are afraid. Otherwise, they would not constantly seek somebody to protect them (even against a non-existing threat).

As a direct result of this delusion, NATO simply does not have the equivalent of the First Guard Tank Army in spite of the fact that NATO has a bigger population and much bigger budgets than Russia. Such a tank Army is what it would take to fight a real war in Europe, Russia has such an Army. NATO does not.

The other thing NATO does not have is a real integrated multi-layered air defense system. Russia does.

Lastly, NATO has no hypersonic weapons. Russia does.

(According to President Trump, the USA *does* have super-dooper “hydrosonic” weapons, but nobody really knows what that is supposed to mean).

I would even argue that the comparatively smaller Belarusian military could make hamburger meat of the roughly three times larger Polish armed forces in a very short time (unlike the Poles, the Belarusian are excellent soldiers and they know that they are surrounded by hostile countries on three sides).

As for the “armed forces” of the Baltic statelets, they are just a sad joke.

One more example: the Empire is now sending ships into the Black Sea as some kind of “show of force”. Yet, every military analyst out there knows that the Black Sea is a “Russian lake” and that no matter how many ships the US or NATO sends into the Black Sea, their life expectancy in case of a conflict would be measured in minutes.

There is a popular expression in Russia which, I submit, beautifully sums up the current US/NATO doctrine: пугать ежа голой задницей, which can be translated as “trying to scare a hedgehog with your naked bottom”.

The truth is that NATO military forces currently are all in very bad shape – all of them, including the US – and that their only advantage over Russia is in numbers. But as soon as you factor in training, command and control, the ability to operate with severely degraded C3I capabilities, the average age of military hardware or morale – the Russian armed forces are far ahead of the West.

Does anybody sincerely believe that a few B-52s and a few thousand soldiers from different countries playing war in Poland will really scare the Russian generals?

But if not – why the threats?

My explanation is simple: the rulers of the Empire simply hope that the people in the West will never find out how bad their current military posture really is, and they also know that Russia will never attack first – so they simply pretend like they are still big, mighty and relevant. This is made even easier by the fact that the Russians always downplay their real capabilities (in sharp contrast to the West which always brags about “the best XYZ in the world”). That, and the fact that nobody in the Western ruling classes wants to admit that the game is over and that the Empire has collapsed.

Yet the Empire still refuses to deal with Russia in any other way except insults, bullying, threats, accusations, sanctions, and constant sabre-rattling. This has never, and I mean never, worked in the past, and it won’t work in the future. But, apparently, NATO generals simply cannot comprehend that insanity can be defined as “doing the same thing over and over again, while hoping to achieve different results”.

Finally, I will conclude with a short mention of US politicians.

First, Trump. He now declares that the Russians stole the secret of hypersonic weapons from Obama. This reminds me of how the Brits declared that Russia stole their vaccine against the sars-cov-2 virus. But, if the Russians stole all that, why is it that ONLY Russia has deployed hypersonic weapons (not the USA) and ONLY Russia has both two vaccines and 2 actual treatments (and not the UK)? For a good laugh, check out Andrei Martyanov’s great column “Russia Steal Everything”.

And then there is Nancy Pelosi who, apparently, is considering, yes, you guessed it – yet another impeachment attempt against Trump? The charge this time? Exercising this Presidential prerogative to nominate a successor to Ruth Ginsburg. Okay, Pelosi might be senile, but she also is in deep denial if she thinks impeaching Trump is still a viable project. Frankly? I think that she lost it.

In fact, I think that all the Dems have gone absolutely insane: they are now considering packing both the Supreme Court and the Senate. The fact that doing so will destroy the US political system does not seem to bother them in the least.

Conclusion: quos Deus vult perdere prius dementat!

We live in a world where facts or logic have simply become irrelevant and nobody cares about such clearly outdated categories.  We have elevated “doubleplusgoodthinking” into an art form.  We have also done away with the concepts of “proof” or “evidence” which we have replaced with variations on the “highly likely” theme.  We have also, for all practical purpose, jettisoned the entire corpus of international law and replaced it with “rules-based international order“.  In fact, I can only agree with Chris Hedges who, in his superb book the “Empire of illusions” and of the “triumph of spectacle”.  He is absolutely correct: not only is this a triumph of appearance over substance, and of ideology over reality, it is even the triumph of self-destruction over self-preservation.

There is not a big “master plan”, no complex international conspiracy, no 5D chess.  All we have is yet another empire committing suicide and, like so many before this one, this suicide is executed by this empire’s ruling classes.

End
Deflation is taking a huge grip in Germany and the restof Europe\
(zerohedge)

Bad News Piles Up For ECB As Deflation In Germany Hits Five Year High

As if Christine Lagarde didn’t have her hands full with what appears to be an incipient revolt by the dwindling handful of Northern European hawks at the central bank, earlier today Germany delivered the worst possible news for the ECB when it revealed that its latest inflation rate fell even further below zero as a fresh wave of the coronavirus pandemic hit domestic demand, adding to the case for more monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank.

German consumer prices dropped 0.4% y/y in September, the biggest drop since the start of 2015. Europe’s largest economy is suffering a double blow from tepid consumption and a sales-tax cut the government introduced earlier this year to bolster the economy.

The drop, which was larger than all but one economist forecast polled by Bloomberg, followed a report showing consumer prices in Spain slid for a sixth straight month, and suggests broader euro area inflation may print below the -0.2% expected by economists. September data for the 19-nation bloc are due on Friday.

The dismal German inflation print validates Nordea’s forecast for Thursday’s euro area print: according to Andreas Steno Larsen, European HICP will see 0% core inflation and -0.5% in headline inflation “with the risk tilted to the downside.”

As Nordea confirms “this is bad news for an already struggling ECB and clearly on the low side to the ECB’s own projections. If old patterns hold between wage growth and inflation, the ECB may be in for a rough ride during the beginning of 2021. It is possible to manage a truckload of debt but not in an outright deflationary environment.”

While a fresh surge in deflation won’t surprise the ECB – Lagarde has flagged such declines for the coming months – some policy makers have started sounding the alarm. ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta and uber dove has argued that the risk of providing too much stimulus is smaller than being “too shy,” and Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernandez de Cos said weak price pressures show there is “no room for complacency.”

Economists expect the ECB to boost its 1.35 trillion ($1.6 trillion) emergency bond-buying program later this year, most likely in December when new forecasts become available.

Meanwhile, according to the ECB’s own forecasts, inflation is unlikely to reach its target of just under 2% for the foreseeable future, with a stronger euro an additional burden.

As Bloomberg notes, Lagarde and many of her colleagues, including ECB chief economist Philip Lane, will speak during a conference on Wednesday.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN

The Armenian Azerbaijani war rages in

(SouthFront)

Armenian-Azerbaijani War Rages In South Caucasus

Submitted by SouthFront.org,

On September 27, a new regional war in South Caucasus arose from the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Pro-Armenian forces captured the region in the early 90s triggering an armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Further development of the hostilities and the expected offensive by pro-Azerbajian forces were stopped by a Russian intervention in May of 1994. As of September 2020, the Nagorno-Karabakh region and nearby areas are still under the control of Armenian forces, de-facto making it an unrecognized Armenian state – the Republic of Artsakh (more widely known as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic).

The 2018 political crisis in Armenia the led to a seizure of power in the country by de-facto pro-Western forces led by current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan which did not strengthen Armenian positions over the territorial dispute. The double standard policy of the Armenian government, which was de-facto conducting anti-Russian actions but keeping public rhetoric pro-Russian, also played its own role. For years, Russia has been the only guarantor of Armenian statehood and the only force capable to rescue it in the event of a full-scale Azerbaijani-Turkish attack. Nonetheless, the Armenian leadership did pretty well in undermining its strategic partnership with its neighbor.

On the other hand, the political and economic situation in Azerbaijan was more stable. Baku also was able to secure good working relations with Russia. Together with the developing strategic partnership with Turkey, a natural historical ally of the country, and the strengthening of Turkish positions in the Greater Middle East, led to an expected attempt by Azerbaijan to restore control over the contested territories.

The Azerbaijani advance started on in the morning of September 27 and as of September 28, the Azerbaijani military said that it had captured seven villages and several key heights in the Fuzuli and Jabrayil areas. The military also announced that Azerbaijan captured the Murov height of the Murovdag mountain range and established fire control of the Vardenis-Aghdar road connecting Karabakh with Armenia. The Ministry of Defense said that this will prevent the transportation of additional troops and equipment from Armenia along the route in the direction of the Kelbajar and Aghdar regions in Karabakh.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry also claimed that over 550 Armenian soldiers were killed and dozens pieces of Armenian military equipment, including at least 15 Osa air defense systems, 22 battle tanks and 8 artillery guns, were destroyed. All statements from the Armenian side about the casualties among Azerbaijani forces were denounced as fake news.

Azerbaijan calls the ongoing advance a “counter-offensive” needed to put an end to Armenian ceasefire violations and to protect civilians. President Ilham Aliyev signed a martial law decree and vowed to “restore historical justice” and “restore the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan” Turkey immediately declared its full support to Azerbaijan saying that it is ready to assist it in any way requested, including military support.

In its own turn, the Armenian military admitted that Azerbaijan captured some positions near Talish, but denied that the Vardenis-Aghdar road was cut off. According to it, at least 200 Azerbaijani soldiers were killed, 30 armored vehicles and 20 drones were destroyed. The Armenian Defense Ministry also said that it has data about Turkish involvement in the conflict, the usage of Turkish weapons and the presence of mercenaries linked to Turkey. Earlier, reports appeared that Turkey was deploying members of its Syrian proxy groups in Azerbaijan. Arayik Harutyunyan, the President of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, openly stated that the republic is at war with both Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The Washington establishment that helped Pashinyan to seize power is also not hurrying up to assist its ‘new friends’ in Armenia. They see the Nagorno-Karabakh region as a point of possible conflict between Russia and Turkey (which is useful to promote the US agenda in the Greater Middle East). The instability in South Caucasus, close to the borders of Russia and Iran, also contributes to the geopolitical interests of the United States. Therefore, the Pashinyan government should not expect any real help from the ‘democratic superpower’.

On the other hand, the direct involvement of Russia and thus the Collective Security Treaty Organization on the side of Armenia is unlikely until there is no direct attack on its territory. Moscow would intervene into the conflict both politically and militarily, but only as far as necessary to prevent a violation of Armenia’s borders. Russia would not contribute military efforts to restore Armenian control over Nagorno Karabakh should the region be captured by Azerbaijan.

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//THE GLOBE

Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths Top 1 Million Mark, With Many More Uncounted: Live Updates

Summary:

  • BofA examines the US “herd immunity threshold”
  • Global death toll tops 1 million
  • Trump promises 150 million rapid tests
  • Victoria reports just 10 cases
  • Texas, California see fewest new deaths in three months
  • Cities in Northern England urge rollback of local lockdown measures
  • India’s hardest hit state prepares to reopen restaurants, bars

* * *

Update (0730ET): With the virus’s mortality rate in focus Tuesday morning, we’d like to share with readers some findings from a Bank of America note exploring the concept of “herd immunity”. A population is said to have “herd immunity” when the number of people who have already been sickened (and therefore now have immunity, at least in theory) exceeds the outcome of the formula “1 –  (1/R)” where “R” is the transmission rate of the virus, ie the average number of people infected by each person with COVID-19. When the transmission rate drops below 1, the virus is said to be slowing.

The intuition, according to the BofA team, is that if the share of the population with immunity – we’ll call that “P” – is greater than the herd immunity threshold, or 1 – (1/R), then the probability that a person who is exposed to the disease gets sick – which is always (1 – P) – would be less than 1/R, or the rate of spread. Therefore the average number of people infected by each person who is exposed to the disease is less than one, since R*(1 – P) < 1, and so the disease dies out instead of spreading.

Where does that leave the US?

Of course, finding accurate numbers to plug in for these variables is harder than it seems since most of the “herd” isn’t “branded”, as BofA points out.

* * *

As outbreaks in New York, Moscow, London, Madrid and Marseilles intensify, the death toll for the global COVID-19 pandemic topped 1 million, according to the latest batch of mortality data reported on Monday. Though the pace of new fatalities accelerated sightly day over day, the world still reported fewer than 4k new deaths – 3,912, to be exact – bringing the tally to 1,002,296.

The number of new cases reported yesterday also rebounded, with 275,892 new cases according to Johns Hopkins final reading; as of 0630ET on Tuesday, the global tally had climbed to 33,384,153.

As the AP pointed out, while the official death toll is 1 million, the real total could be as much as 2x higher, according to a projection that has been widely cited in the Western press. Here’s the AP:

Even then, the toll is almost certainly a vast undercount because of inadequate or inconsistent testing and reporting. And more people are dying daily, shrouding families and communities in grief in almost every corner of the world.

In terms of the big news from overnight and the morning session, Bloomberg reported just moments ago that Tianjin-based CanSino Biologics is launching Phase 2 trials in eastern China. The trials will also test the company’s COVID-19 vaccine in two doses, according to the trial protocol posted on database. The trial will involve 481 volunteers, including minors aged between 6-18 and people aged 56 or older, as well as those who have previously received the company’s Ebola vaccine, which was developed using a similar technology. The trial is double-blind, randomized and placebo-controlled.

Here’s the rest of the news overnight.

After imposing new social distancing measures, Spain is set to extend its temporary leave schemes until the end of January, as the pandemic continues to hammer its economy.

The cabinet will meet on Tuesday to approve an extension of the emergency schemes, known as ERTEs, until Jan. 31. The benefits for laid off or under-employed workers were expected to expire on Wednesday.

After President Trump again announced plans to supply 150 million rapid COVID-19 tests to the states, Novacyt, the Anglo-French biotech company has agreed to supply testing equipment and rapid coronavirus tests to the UK government. The company will supply 300 PCR testing machines and test kits for £150 million for the first 14 weeks, potentially extending supply of the common antigen test by another 10 weeks for £100 million (Source: FT).

City council leaders from Liverpool, Leeds and Manchester upped the pressure on the government to reduce new ‘local lockdown’ measures as they crush the local economy. In a letter to health secretary Matt Hancock and business secretary Alok Sharma, the leaders complained that hotel occupancy is at around 30% normal levels and footfall has fallen by more than 2/3rds due to the local lockdown measures (Source: FT)

The Australian state of Victoria reported 10 new coronavirus infections on Tuesday morning, as authorities eased lockdown measures in Melbourne after suppressing an outbreak.

With the US death toll slowly moving higher, Texas reported its smallest daily increase in deaths in about three months on Monday, as just 11 deaths were counted as COVID-19 deaths. California also reported its smallest increase in deaths in three weeks on Monday, and its lowest daily tally in a week. The US overall also saw its lowest daily tally for fatalities in three months as the number of new cases starts to drift lower following a post-Labor Day Weekend surge (Source: JHU).

END

CANADA

Canada in bad shape due to virus spending

(courtesy Andy Blatchford/Politco)

Budget watchdog: Canada’s fiscal situation ‘barely’ sustainable

By Andy Blatchford

09/29/2020 11:25 AM EDT

OTTAWA — Canada’s budget watchdog says the federal government’s fiscal situation is “barely” sustainable as the coronavirus pandemic puts pressure on the public books.

Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux said conditions are more likely to get worse than they are to get better, as he released a new baseline projection Tuesday.

“The current situation would appear to be sustainable — but barely,” Giroux told reporters by teleconference. “It wouldn’t take that much in terms of new spending or even tax cuts for federal debt to become unsustainable.”

Giroux cautioned that his report only provides a “baseline scenario” based on a set of assumptions, therefore it is not a prediction.

The unpredictability of the pandemic and the government’s response to it add major unknowns to the outlook. The PBO’s numbers are likely to change — and there’s a stronger chance they will deteriorate further.

First, here are the details from the PBO’s baseline projection: The report projected the federal deficit for this year to hit C$328.5 billion, or 15 percent of the gross domestic product. The number includes C$225.9 billion in emergency Covid-19 spending.

By comparison, the PBO’s 2020-2021 shortfall projection is lower than the Trudeau government’s prediction in July of C$343.2 billion.

The PBO projects the deficit to shrink in 2021-2022 to C$73.8 billion, or 3.2 percent of GDP, and continue to decrease to an average of around C$40 billion for a couple of years.

Giroux said the key measure is Canada’s net debt-to-GDP ratio when it comes to determining fiscal sustainability.

Under his scenario, the indicator will spike this year to 47.9 percent, up from 31.3 percent in 2019-2020. It will creep higher to 48.3 percent by 2022-2023 before starting a very gradual decline over the following years.

Why things could get worse: Giroux’s projection is built on a number of assumptions, including one that says Canada will avoid a “severe” second wave of Covid-19 infections. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced last week that much of the country had already entered the second wave and, in recent days, provinces have begun to reintroduce containment measures that had been eased back during the summer.

The numbers also only reflect budgetary measures as of Sept. 1 and they do not include pledges revealed last week in Trudeau’s Speech from the Throne. The speech, which contained high-level policy signals and no cost estimates, contained numerous promises that will likely need considerable public expenditures.

Giroux noted that vows from the speech, such as national child care and pharmacare programs, would have significant impacts on the government’s fiscal position if they are funded by deficit spending.

The PBO also said the fiscal situation could decline further if Parliament extends emergency measures or there are delays in the development of vaccines and treatments, which could prolong the enforcement of public-health restrictions. Giroux also warned that any increase in interest rates on government borrowing would have a negative impact on public finances.

Possible upsides: The report said a more rapid development and availability of a vaccine or treatment could help the government’s finances come in stronger than the projections. The economy, the PBO said, could also recover more quickly than expected.

“But we believe that, on balance, there are more downside risks than upside risks,” Giroux said.

What’s next? The government pledged last week in its Speech from the Throne to produce a more-fulsome fiscal and economic update this fall. The date of its release has yet to be announced.

The federal government has now gone a year and a half since its last full budget. The government and new Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland are under pressure to move more quickly on releasing a full budgetary plan.

To view online:
https://subscriber.politicopro.com/canada/article/2020/09/budget-watchdog-canadas-fiscal-situation-barely-sustainable-2001905

You received this POLITICO Pro content because your customized settings include: Government of Canada (and) Medical Marijuana…, Infectious Diseases, Vaccines. To change your alert settings, please go to https://subscriber.politicopro.com/settings.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1704 UP .0027 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS//PANDEMIC// /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /MOSSTLY RED EXCEPT ITALY

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.65 UP 0.204 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2855   DOWN   0.0016  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

 

USA/CAN 1.3369 UP .0012 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 27 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1704 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 30.52 POINTS OR 1.04% 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 200.52 POINTS OR 0.85%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,11%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED EXCEPT ITALY

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED EXCEPT ITALY 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 200.52 POINTS OR 0.85%

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.82 POINTS OR 0.21%

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .11% 

 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 27,48  POINTS OR 0.12%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1886.45

silver:$23.95-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.655% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 

The 30 yr bond yield 1.411 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 94.05 DOWN 23 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.24% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.02%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.23%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.85 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 62 points higher than Spain.

 

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.54% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.87% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1721  UP     .0043 or 43  basis points

USA/Japan: 105.68 UP .232 OR YEN DOWN 23  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2848 DOWN .0025 POUND DOWN 25  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 51 basis points to 1.3086

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: AT 6.8165    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8246  (YUAN DOWN)..

TURKISH LIRA:  7.8364 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +,02%

 

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.643 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.401 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.02 DOWN 26  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 30.43  0.51%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 45.05 POINTS OR .35%

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 11.20 POINTS 0.23%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 77.90 POINTS or 1.15%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 98.92 POINTS OR 0.52%

 

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 54.92 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 61.83 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    79.24  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.14 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 14 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.54 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  38.99//

 

 

BRENT :  40.77

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.641..down 2 basis points…

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.412  down one basis point..

 

 

 

 

 

EURO/USA 1.11740 ( UP 64   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.67 UP 226 (YEN DOWN 23 BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.88 DOWN 60 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2857 DOWN 16  POINTS

 

the Turkish lira close: 7.8189

 

 

the Russian rouble 79.07   DOWN 0.03 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3390 DOWN 32 BASIS pts

 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.54%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 131.40 POINTS OR 0.48%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 32.28 POINTS OR 0.29%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  26.31 CLOSED UP .12

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.226%//libor dropping like a stone

 

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Stocks & Dollar Skid

COVID concerns (NFL cases and NYC positivity rates), a lack of stimulus progression, and the uncertainty ahead of tonight’s presidential debate weighed on stocks and the dollar, but sparked a safe-haven bid under bonds and precious metals…

The machines tried as usual to get back to even but with no lasting luck (weakness into Asia close and European close and US close…

And the 50DMAs were tested and rejected…

“Where’s my money!”

Gold futures topped $1900…

Gold bounced off its 100DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

As Real yields tumbled, precious metals were bid…

Source: Bloomberg

Election uncertainty continued to surge…

Source: Bloomberg

With the VIX curve notably perturbed…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar leaked lower again today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were bid very modestly on the day with 10Y Yields back to A 63bps handle…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were lower on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver futures back above $24…

Which pushed the Gold/Silver ratio back below 80x…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as Bloomberg notes, oil trading is grinding to a halt with the market concerned about the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on demand and supply cuts from OPEC+ producers.

Source: Bloomberg

And as the month comes to an end, we note that the USDollar is outperforming gold in September by the most since Trump was elected…

Source: Bloomberg

Still, it’s probably best not to get too excited. Year to date, “in terms of gold, the dollar is declining over 20%,” said Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone. “I see the metal building a base around $1,800 and resuming the rally above $2,000.”

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA/AFTERNOON

Gold Futures Jump Back To $1900 As Real Yields Tumble

Gold futures surged back to $1900 this morning…

Bouncing perfectly off its 100DMA…

While the USD is not fading dramatically, it is the renewed tumble in real yields that appears to be triggering a renewed dip-buying feast in precious metals…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver is outperforming gold once again today, back above $24…

…with gold/silver back below 80x…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course the dollar’s recent rebound is nothing compared to the collapse of the fiat currency against gold in the last two years…

Source: Bloomberg

As Michael Maharrey recently commented on precious metals’ weakness, “in order to believe the gold bull run is over, you have to believe the Federal Reserve is actually going to tighten monetary policy and the dollar is going to remain strong. That seems rather unbelievable.”

 end

ii)Market data/USA

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Trump Campaign Releases “17 Questions Joe Biden Must Answer In The Debate”

If you were looking for a list of things President Trump is likely to hammer Joe Biden over during tonight’s debate, his campaign has published a list of 17 questions that “Joe Biden must answer in the debate.

They range from the $3.5 million wire transfer Hunter Biden received from a Russian billionaire who was married to the former mayor of Moscow, to Biden claiming he “got started” at Delaware State – a historically black college that says he never attended, to Supreme Court nominees and court-packing.

See the full list below:

  1. Your son Hunter Biden received a $3.5 million wire transfer from a Russian billionaire who was married to the former mayor of Moscow. He also had a joint bank account with a Chinese national that financed $100,000 in credit card purchases around the world. This all happened while you were Vice President. Why would people connected to the Russian and Chinese governments want to give your son millions of dollars?
  2. You recently said you “got started” at Delaware State University, an HBCU. The school says they have no record of you ever attending. What did you major in there?
  3. In June you said you were vetting your own potential Supreme Court picks and promised you would release your own list. Now you say you won’t release a list. Why go back on your pledge?
  4. Your running mate Kamala Harris said last year that she was open to adding as many as 4 seats to the Supreme Court. Now more leading Democrats are saying your party should pack the Supreme Court if they get the chance. Are you refusing to answer whether you will go along with this radical plan because you are too weak to stand up to it?
  5. In January 2017, you said that Democrats should not block President Trump’s nominees for the Supreme Court. You said you believe the Constitution “requires” the Senate “to give the nominee a hearing and a vote.” In 2016 you said “would go forward with the confirmation process” of a Supreme Court nominee “even a few months before a presidential election … just as the Constitution requires.” Now you say the Constitution requires the exact opposite. How do you reconcile that change?
  6. In 2008 you promised Americans that if they made less than $250,000 they would not pay a penny more in taxes. You broke that promise and imposed new taxes that directly impacted middle-class Americans. Now you’re claiming you won’t raise taxes on anyone making more than 400,000. Why should voters believe you now, especially since you’ve said you will reinstate the individual mandate tax?
  7. As Vice President, you oversaw the weakest economic recovery since the Great Depression. What would you do differently if you were elected?
  8. Your plan would raise the U.S. business tax rate higher than China’s rate. Won’t that make it more expensive for companies to do business in America and ultimately send jobs overseas?
  9. President Trump imposed restrictions on travel from China on January 31 to combat the spread of the coronavirus. Why did it take you two months to say you supported that decision?
  10. In 2008 you and Barack Obama promised to fully fund the federal COPS program, which provides resources to local law enforcement. But funding for this program was cut while you were vice president, despite your promise. Why did you fail to keep your word?
  11. Earlier this year your campaign staff donated money to the Minnesota Freedom Fund, an organization that bailed out of a jail a rioter who shot at police officers and other violent criminals and sexual predators. Your running mate Kamala Harris also urged people to donate to that organization and is still raising money for it. Do you condone that?
  12. You say if you’re elected you’ll push to give citizenship to the 11 million undocumented people in our country. Why do you believe they should receive Medicare and Social Security benefits?
  13. When you were running for president in 2007, both you and Obama pledged to renegotiate NAFTA, a promise you did not keep when you were in office. You recently blamed Republicans for this, saying they wouldn’t go along with it, but Democrats controlled Congress in 2009 when the Obama Administration announced it would not even try to change NAFTA. So why did you fail to keep your word?
  14. When you voted to give China “most favored nation” trade status in 2000, you said you did not foresee “the collapse of the American manufacturing economy” because of it. But by one estimate, it led to the loss of 1 million manufacturing jobs in the U.S. Do you acknowledge that your vote to give China most favored nation trade status was a mistake that hurt American workers?
  15. The 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic infected 60 million Americans when you were VP, and the federal government depleted its strategic stockpile of N95 masks in response. A fact check by USA Today found that your administration made no effort to replenish the stockpile of masks, despite warnings from experts. Do you accept responsibility for that failure, which left America unprepared for another pandemic?
  16. Your campaign says it is a “lie” that “the Biden-Harris ticket is the most radically pro-abortion” ticket “in U.S. history.” Are there any restrictions on abortion that you support, and if so, please be specific?
  17. You said the N-word 13 times during a 1985 Senate nomination fight, when you were quoting something attributed to someone else. Do you think that was appropriate to do? Is that the only time you’ve said the N-word//end

end

Fed study shows the ECB made a huge mistake with negative rates

(zerohedge)

Fed Study Shows The ECB Made A Huge Mistake With Negative Rates

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

ECB Punishes Banks With Negative Interest Rates.

Please consider Commercial Banks under Persistent Negative Rates by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Do extended periods of negative policy interest rates continue to encourage commercial bank lending? A large panel of European and Japanese banks provides evidence on the impact of negative rates over different lengths of time.

Analysis suggests that both bank profitability and bank lending activity erode more the longer such negative policy rates continue, primarily due to banks’ reluctance to pass negative rates along to retail depositors. This appears to negate one of the main arguments for moving policy rates below the zero bound.

Our results suggest that banks can only mitigate losses on interest income through charging fees on deposits and enjoying capital gains on securities holdings for short periods of negative interest rates. As durations of negative policy rates lengthen, the gains from these adjustments become increasingly inadequate to offset the growing losses on interest income due to banks’ limited abilities to pass along negative rates to depositors. The result is that, as negative rates persist, they drag on bank profitability even more.

The data clearly show that losses on interest income accelerate over time and begin to outweigh the gains from noninterest income. As a result, the impact on overall profitability falls below zero. Our regression analysis for the impact on overall bank profitability becomes negative on average with statistical significance after five years under negative interest rates.

No Surprise

I talked about this six years ago when the ECB first went to negative rates.

Statements I made then still apply,

  • The Fed paid interest on excess reserves slowly recapitalizing banks over time.
  • The ECB charged interest on excess reserves draining already stressed banks of capital.

I question the study’s statement “the impact on overall bank profitability becomes negative on average with statistical significance after five years under negative interest rates.”

Indeed, their own chart shows negative impacts after a year.

Impact of Negative Policy

Lose-Lose Setup

In short bank lending suffers after one year and profitability suffers at increasing rates over time.

It is for this reason I have often stated the Fed would not be stupid enough to opt for negative rates.

The effective lower bound is at least somewhat above zero.

Effective Lower Bound

Please see my September 25, 2019 post In Search of the Effective Lower Bound

The Fed is no longer talking about zero-bound but effective lower bound. What’s the difference? Where is it?

Effective Lower Bound is the point beyond which further monetary policy in the same direction is counterproductive.

I propose the Bank of Japan and the ECB are already below ELB. I further propose the ELB can never be negative but it can be well above zero.

Negative interest rate policy can never work as it violates basic economic principles on time preference and the time value of money.

Moreover, a dive below the ELB supports the position I presented on September 23, 2019: Negative Interest Rates Are Social Political Poison

Deeper Down the Rabbit Hole

Yesterday, I noted Draghi Open to MMT and a People’s QE

Every attempt to fix the perceived problem of “too low inflation” goes deeper and deeper down the rabbit hole.

It’s economic madness, yet, here we are.

It took a multi-year study for the San Francisco Fed to come to the right conclusion.

That’s a step in the right direction. Many of these studies come to the wrong conclusion.

The solution is to let the free market set interest rates rather than a tail-chasing consortium of economic wizards who have never spotted a bubble or a recession in real time.

end

This is a negative to GDP

(Reuters)

U.S. goods trade deficit widens in August

WASHINGTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) – The United States’ trade deficit in goods widened in August, with imports rising as businesses rebuild inventories which were depleted when the COVID-19 pandemic upended the flow of goods. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the goods trade gap increased 3.5% to $82.9 billion last month. Imports of goods rose 3.1% to $201.3 billion, eclipsing a 2.8% increase in goods exports to $118.3 billion.

-END-

The northern area of Napa Valley which includes Howell Mountain sees wildfires spreading like crazy

(zerohedge)

“We Just Don’t Have Words” – Wildfires Spread Across California Wine Country

A dangerous, fast-moving wildfire is ripping through Northern California’s wine country has more than tripled the size, forcing tens of thousands of residents to evacuate, reported Bloomberg.

CalFire’s latest update shows the wildfire, called “Glass Fire,” is located in Napa County, has expanded into Sonoma County at a “dangerous rate of spread” and has scorched more than 36,000 acres. As of Monday, the fire is 0% contained, destroying 113 structures and has damaged or is threatening 8,543 others. About 1,500 fire personnel have been deployed to the region to contain the blaze.

Around 70,000 residents of Sonoma and Napa counties have evacuated as hot, dry winds spread the fires into neighborhoods and vineyards, consuming commercial and residential building structures.

Dozens of wineries are in the mandatory evacuation zones or evacuation warning zones. At least one winery has been destroyed, according to CNN affiliate KGO.

KGO spoke with Dario Sattui, owner of Castello di Amorosa Winery in Calistoga, who said his “worst nightmare came true early Monday when part of his beloved winery caught fire.”

Sen. Mike McGuire told KTVU-TV the Glass Fire is “moving at about 40 mph because of the wind, down the hill into the city of Santa Rosa, and we’re hoping for better conditions here today.”

“We just don’t have words,” said McGuire, a Democrat representing Healdsburg in Sonoma County. “It’s an incredibly trying and emotional time right now.”

California’s peak fire season usually runs from September through November. As readers may recall, La Nina has amplified the fires with more than 8,100 wildfires have burned more than 3.7 million acres this year, according to CalFire. About 29 people have died, and more than 7,000 structures have been destroyed since Aug. 15. This year’s fire season could extend as late as December.

end
the Royal Rumble begins tonight
Michael Every…

“Get Your Popcorn”: Tonight’s Debate Has “All The Makings Of A Classic To Rival The Rumble In The Jungle”

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Rumble in the Jungle; Thrilla near Manilla

First and foremost today, markets will be focusing on the first (and, some Twitter wisdom would have it, potentially the last) presidential election debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

This has all the makings of a classic to rival The Rumble in the Jungle between Foreman and Ali. Except in this case, almost everyone will be watching what they believe might be The Bungle in the (media) Jungle. Indeed, supporters of *both* candidates will be transformed into nervous parents at an expensive Ivy League prep school on the evening of their very young child’s first-ever school play: rictus smiles and silent prayers as the curtain rises that their special one makes them proud rather than having a tantrum, forgetting their lines, falling asleep, or generally humiliating themselves. After all, neither man has a reputation for eloquence, remaining calm at all times, clearly getting their point across to neutrals, or remaining gaffe free.

The expectations for Biden have been set extremely low – but he has been doing debates for 50 years, so there is bound to be some deep muscle memory there along with the “I am the guy who…” and “C’mon man!” and “Malarkey” shtick. Trump has only had a few rounds of real debate in his life: against Clinton in 2016 and against his Republican rivals prior to that, and the shock jock routine is hardly new at this point.

We already know what the debate topics will be (and let’s assume neither candidate knows what the actual questions are, unlike in 2016). Yet that does not mean we won’t be hearing about whatever each candidate feels will floor his opponent best, for example: Ukraine; Russia; China; problematic children; things said to or about soldiers; things said or done about the coronavirus; the Supreme Court; tax – and who wrote the tax code; a failure to provide decent healthcare options to millions of Americans; election fraud. Who said the country was divided, eh? Anyway world, sit yourself down, get your popcorn in, and let the spectacle unfold.

Meanwhile, most of the press has decided on the potential showdown(s) they don’t want to talk about much.

First is the risk of an escalation in fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The former is considering triggering its defence treaty with Russia, where President Putin has called for an immediate ceasefire; the latter is supported by Turkey’s President Erdogan,…who has called for the liberation of all disputed territory held by Armenians (meaning Nagorno-Karabakh). TRY remains close to record lows at time of writing, and just for good measure Turkey is today undertaking naval drills close to Greek waters again to “encourage cooperation” in proposed talks on gas exploration. RUB is also under pressure on fears of further sanctions due to Belarus, the poisoning of Navalny, and the fact that if the word ‘Russia’ comes up tonight in US presidential debate buzzword bingo, everyone in the Kremlin drinks. They know that Iran, according to Bloomberg, is on the cusp of another set of biting US sanctions to effectively seal it off from the rest of the world financially.

Second is what one would think might be the front-page headline. As China conducts naval drills in four seas simultaneously –because hendow else does one focus on a post-virus consumer-led, green-friendly economic recovery?– the editor of The Global Times (who I think would have made a great outside choice as a host for a US presidential debate) has tweeted the following:

“Based on information I learned, Trump govt could take the risk to attack China’s islands in the South China Sea with MQ-9 Reaper drones to aid his reelection campaign. If it happens, the PLA will definitely fight back fiercely and let those who start the war pay a heavy price.”

I can perhaps understand why this is not getting much coverage. The Global Times is excitable. It has said similar things about both Taiwan and India very recently, for example, and even about Australia earlier this year too. Yet without any wish to go all guns and gold and duct tape, this is either a smoking gun (or MQ-9) pointing at the risk of WW3 starting from the US side, and perhaps imminently if Trump bungles in the media jungle tonight; or it is China talking up such risks when no US threat is on the table, which unnecessarily escalates geopolitical risk too.

At the very least, it has to be dismissed as ‘just’ North Korea style media, which does not sit well with all the other financial market China stories about designer this and disruption that, and dynamic growth the other. Then again, the US is hardly short of wing-nut media, I suppose, who are all about to have a field day.

Anyway, less than 20 hours now as I type until the big show begins. The Trump-Biden one, I mean.

But you won’t be able to watch it in a group in public in the Netherlands now that a UK-style 10pm restaurant and bar closure has just been introduced for three weeks, along with a stop to all spectators at sports matches, as Europe shows that it is still in synch with the UK on more than just a potential Brexit trade deal.

Perhaps next the Dutch will be sealing newly-arrived students into their halls of residence, telling them they may not be able to go home for Christmas, and throwing in the odd packet of crisps and candy bar through the window while charging them GBP9,000 a year fees for the experience, and rent on top.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

USA intelligence investigated Hillary  Clinton over plan to smear Trump with Russia accusations  This was sent to Obama who did nothing???

Now the stuff begins

(zerohedge)

US Intelligence Investigated Hillary Clinton Over Alleged Plan To Smear Trump With Russia Accusations

On September 7, 2016, US intelligence officials forwarded an investigative referral to former FBI officials James Comey and Peter Strzok concerning allegations that Hillary Clinton approved a plan to smear then-candidate Donald Trump by tying him to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian hackers, according to information given to Sen. Lindsey Graham by the Director of National Intelligence.

According to Fox News’ Chad Pergram, “In late July 2016, U.S. intelligence agencies obtained insight into Russian intelligence analysis alleging that U.S. Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had approved a campaign plan to stir up a scandal against U.S. Presidential candidate Donald Trump,” after one of Clinton’s foreign policy advisers proposed vilifying Trump “by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by Russian security services.”

Read the letter from DNI Director John Ratcliffe to Lindsey Graham below:

In 2017, it was claimed that the “blame Russia” plan was hatched “within twenty-four hours” of Clinton losing the election – while the US intelligence investigation predates that by several months.

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Monday

Trump $500B [in capital] Black America plan designates KKK, Antifa as ‘terrorist organizations’

The plan calls for making lynching a national hate crime

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-plan-for-black-america

Trump on Friday to black audience in Atlanta: “Joe Biden… hollowed out the black middle class… Joe Biden should not be demanding your support; he should be begging for your forgiveness.”

https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1309578522386665472

Also Trump: “The path to the American dream has always been education.  Republicans believe that school choice is the civil rights issue of our time.” https://twitter.com/DeAngelisCorey/status/1309595912638001155

NYT: Long-Concealed Records Show Trump’s Chronic Losses and Years of Tax Avoidance

The Times obtained Donald Trump’s tax information extending over more than two decades, revealing struggling properties, vast write-offs, an audit battle and hundreds of millions in debt coming due…

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html

@marklevinshow: We’re approximately one month away from the election and the New York Times and the rest of the media are desperately trying to impact the outcome and elect Biden.  Day after day, they try to great bombshells while Biden family corruption is all but ignored. The fact that the Times has illegally obtained the president’s tax returns won’t be the big story.  But it should be.

Today is Yom Kippur.  Volume should be diminished and the markets will be thinner.  This will benefit those operators and traders that want to gun ESZs and stocks higher before Q3 portfolio rebalancing appears in full force.  Traders and operators know the window for a rally is open today; but it could be slamming shut tomorrow and on Wednesday, which is month end.

FBI agent: Never was evidence of Russia collusion but Mueller team had ‘get Trump’ goal

Agent says Flynn case should have been shut down but FBI kept it open without legal grounds.

    Agent William Barnett’s interview with Justice Department prosecutors earlier this month provided a bombshell claim that both FBI superiors under agency Director James Comey and Mueller’s team exhibited bias in their pursuit of Trump that upended the normal investigative decisions, tactics and commitment to pursue evidence neutrally…Barnett described how the top levels of the FBI, including now-fired Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, suddenly took over the investigation after Trump won the November 2016 election and continued to keep the case going even though there was “little detail concerning specific evidence of criminal events.”…

https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/fbi-agent-never-was-evidence-russia-collusion-mueller

@LizRNC: Mueller lawyer Jeannie Rhee — who maxed out in donations to Hillary Clinton and represented the Clinton Foundation — had “an agenda” and was “obsessed” with getting Gen Flynn

https://twitter.com/LizRNC/status/1309516139685466113

@MariaBartiromo: NO John Durham interim report. No indictments before election – sources.

When a referee refuses to call a penalty because he/she doesn’t want to interfere in a game, the act of not calling the penalty is interference in the game.

No door knocks, little press access, early ‘lids’: Biden campaign stalls with 40 days left

Campaign calls multiple early-morning “lids,” raising specter of exhausted candidate.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/no-door-door-knocking-little-press-early-turn-ins-bidens-campaign-stalls

Biden had another ‘lid’ on Friday; but he visited RBG’s casket that was in state at the Capitol.

After Joe’s calamitous interview with DJT-hating MSNBC on Saturday morning, Team Joe called a lid.

@TrumpWarRoom: After Joe Biden’s brain freezes, MSNBC anchor has to feed him a line

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1309899011390926848

     Joe Biden is reading parts of his answers in his interview on MSNBC with @SRuhle!

@TrumpWarRoom: Joe Biden suddenly brings up a person name “John” and accuses him of avoiding what needs to be done    https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1310005400171876353

@TrumpWarRoom: Biden misreads the teleprompter: “I got to the Senate 180 years ago” [A flat joke?]

https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1309930188730511360

‘He’s sort of like Goebbels’: Biden compares Trump to Nazi propagandist

When Biden was asked during an interview with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle how he would combat Trump’s repeated claim that he was pushing a socialist agenda, the former vice president didn’t mince words…Trump is “sort of like Goebbels,” Biden said, invoking the name of Joseph Goebbels, the mastermind of Nazi Germany’s propaganda machine. “You say the lie long enough, keep repeating it, repeating it, repeating it, it becomes common knowledge” among voters…

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/26/joe-biden-trump-joseph-goebbels-422047

Newsweek’s @josh_hammer: Biden’s comparing Trump to Goebbels is, without question, the single most disgraceful thing I’ve seen in a presidential election in my adult lifetime.

@RJC: RJC Calls on @JoeBiden to Apologize for “Goebbels” Comment

https://twitter.com/RJC/status/1310024121313562625

@JoeConchaTV on Saturday: Biden called a lid on the day earlier this morning. No events, no questions. Less than 6 weeks before the election, the Democratic nominee is working at a 50% clip, calling a lid 7 of the past 14 days and 11 of the past 26 this month. Is this a preview of a Biden presidency?

Biden said he was a student at Delaware State University; school says otherwise

The historically Black college refutes Biden’s claims…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-said-he-was-a-student-at-delaware-state-university-they-say-otherwise?cmpid=prn_newsstand

@JonathanTurley: It is not clear why the many media in attendance at the event did not ask when he attended a HBCU. Biden would be the first president to claim such a distinction. Alternatively, this would seem like an academic version of cultural appropriation.  If President Trump made such a statement, every network and newspaper would be demanding clarification or proof. If this video is false, it is a major story. If it is true, it is an even greater story. Yet, once again, there has been virtually no media interest. Just crickets.

Pelosi Says She Still Thinks Biden Shouldn’t Debate Trump – BBG

@realDonaldTrump: I will be strongly demanding a Drug Test of Sleepy Joe Biden prior to, or after, the Debate on Tuesday night. Naturally, I will agree to take one also. His Debate performances have been record setting UNEVEN, to put it mildly. Only drugs could have caused this discrepancy???

OAN: President Trump on upcoming Presidential debate:  “Will I go on the attack? I have no idea, I have no idea how [Biden’s] going to be. He’s always different when he comes out because he’s on a different medication.”   https://twitter.com/jennfranconews/status/1310273128354836481?s=09

Team Trump’s @jacobkschneider on Sunday: Campaigning in his home state of Delaware for the millionth time, Joe Biden gave a quick speech before calling a 1:00 pm lid.

Biden: “Never before in our nation’s history has a Supreme Court justice been nominated and installed while a presidential election is already underway. It defies every precedent.” [BS; It’s occurred 29 times.]

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1310256324404535296

Joe Biden refuses to say whether he’d pack the court because his answer would become “a big issue”  https://youtu.be/WMm1jsX79Lo

@MajorPatriot: If you watch the Mainstream Media, you probably have no idea this is happening.

  Just a Live Shot of believers from all 50 states praying for our nation on The Mall in Washington DC

https://twitter.com/MajorPatriot/status/1309887746018881538

@ElijahSchaffer: SHOCKING: 1,000+ mail-in-ballots found in a dumpster in California.  They were allegedly discovered in the Republic Services of Sonoma County central landfill. The zip code “94928” on the ballots matches the county.  These are original photos sent to me. Big if true.

https://twitter.com/ElijahSchaffer/status/1309400333425180673

Colorado Secretary Of State Mails Postcards to Non-Citizens, Dead People Urging Them to Vote

Director the Secretary of State’s Elections Division…Choate says the post cards were mailed to about 750,000 people… https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/09/25/colorado-secretary-state-postcards-non-citizens-dead-people-register-vote/

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announces 134 felony voter fraud charges in connection with 2018 Dem primary   https://t.co/zgj9FMfNqp

@realDonaldTrump: Wow, nobody realized how far Mini Mike Bloomberg went in bribing ex-prisoners to go out and vote for Sleepy Joe. He is desperate to get back into the good graces of the people who not only badly beat him, but made him look like a total fool. Now he’s committed a serious crime!

Support for BLM demonstrations falls to 39% from 54% in three months…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8771935/Support-BLM-demonstrations-falls-39-54-three-months.html

BLM Stealth-Edits Website amid Marxist Blowback, Plunge in Americans’ Support https://t.co/1G5n7jHnit

Kamala Harris is branded ‘ignorant’ for praising BLM protests and calling them ‘essential’ just three days after two cops were shot during Louisville riots

@ClayTravis: Charles Barkley says defunding police is a ridiculous idea. “Who are black people supposed to call? The Ghostbusters?”    https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1309301205638828033

@Doranimated: This is AWESOME! A film clip of Jerusalem from 1897, digitally enhanced. The closest thing to a time machine you’ll ever see.  https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1309826705423507460

@senjudiciary: The [Barrett] hearing will last three to four days, using the format the committee has followed for recent Supreme Court nominees. Opening statements by Judiciary Committee members and the nominee will occur on Monday, October 12.  The questioning of Judge Barrett will begin on Tuesday, October 13. Testimony by those who know Judge Barrett the best and legal experts is expected to follow.

Senate Republican Communications Center @SRCC: After getting called out, [Dem Sen.] Blumenthal admits confirming Judge Barrett doesn’t violate the Constitution. BLUMENTHAL: It is illegitimate.

CNN: Where does it say that what Republicans are doing is illegitimate in the Constitution?

BLUMENTHAL: It may not violate the Constitution.  https://twitter.com/SRCC/status/1310023641313226753

Democrats Considering ‘Boycott’ Of Supreme Court Confirmation Hearings, Refuse To Meet With Amy Coney Barret – “With little power to actually derail Trump’s pick, Democrats are coming under considerable pressure from their activist base to use every tactic at their disposal to not just throw sand in the gears of the confirmation fight, but to portray the consideration of expected nominee Amy Coney Barrett as a farce that shouldn’t even occur,”…

https://www.dailywire.com/news/democrats-considering-boycott-of-supreme-court-confirmation-hearings-refuse-to-meet-with-amy-coney-barrett

Law prof @JonathanTurley: Judge Barrett has gone from a “cult member to a possible “white colonizer” for adopting two Haitian children . . . and she is not even into her second day as a nominee.  Where most of us saw a loving family, BU Professor Ibram Kendi saw a possible “colonization” where people like Barrett claim to have “‘civilized’ these ‘savage’ children in the ‘superior’ ways of White people.  Only in our age of rage could the picture of a happy interracial family lead to the suggestion that the mother might be a racist baby snatcher. While Kendi concedes the Barretts might not be racist, a Republican Supreme Court nomination appears sufficient reason to wonder.

Highly-Educated Americans Are by Far the Most Closed-Minded; Gallup

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/highly-educated-americans-are-far-most-closed-minded-gallup

Tuesday

Inside the JPMorgan Trading Desk the U.S. Called a Crime Ring

The U.S. says the precious metals desk at JPMorgan was a racketeering operation. Now the bank is poised to pay a record penalty for spoofing. Here’s a look behind eight years of alleged conspiracy

    The Justice Department has famously used the RICO statute to bring down mafia bosses and drug gangs. It has used other statutes to extract penalties and guilty pleas from big banks accused of market manipulation. But it’s been decades since the government has attempted to apply the anti-racketeering law to members of a major bank’s trading desk, placing Nowak and others in crosshairs once trained on the likes of the Latin Kings and the Gambino crime family…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-28/inside-the-jpm-precious-metals-desk-called-a-crime-ring-by-prosecutors

Project Veritas uncovers ‘ballot harvesting fraud’ in Minnesota: Devine

A ballot-harvesting racket in Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar’s Minneapolis district — where paid workers illegally gather absentee ballots from elderly Somali immigrants — appears to have been busted…“Just today we got 300 for Jamal Osman,” says Mohamed, aka KingLiban1, in the video. “I have 300 ballots in my car right now… “Numbers don’t lie. You can see my car is full. All these here are absentee ballots… Look, all these are for Jamal Osman,” he says, displaying the white envelopes.  “Money is the king in this world… and a campaign is driven by money.”…  https://nypost.com/2020/09/27/project-veritas-uncovers-ballot-harvesting-fraud-in-minnesota/

 

Trump demands investigation into Ilhan Omar following report her supporters ‘illegally harvested Democrat ballots in Minnesota’ https://t.co/kEtRZY11ep

 

Biden’s Texas Political Director Accused of Illegal Ballot Harvesting at Texas Supreme Court

Joe Biden campaign’s Texas Political Director has been formally accused of helping to run an illegal ballot harvesting operation, according to two separate affidavits filed Monday at the Texas Supreme Court…  https://nationalfile.com/bidens-texas-political-director-accused-of-illegal-ballot-harvesting-at-texas-supreme-court/

 

Nearly 1,400 Virginia voters got two ballots in the mail

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/reports-nearly-1400-virginia-voters-got-two-ballots-in-the-mail

 

Queens voters are wrongly receiving mail-in ballots marked for military use

https://nypost.com/2020/09/28/nyc-voters-wrongly-getting-mail-in-ballots-marked-for-military-use/

 

Next declassification could flip Russia collusion script, point to effort to hurt Trump

The Trump administration is preparing one of its biggest declassifications in the Russia case yet, a super-secret document that could flip the collusion theory on its head four years after the FBI first started investigation.  Multiple officials familiar with the plan declassification, which could happen…  this week, told Just the News that the new evidence will raise the specter that Vladimir Putin was actually trying to hurt President Trump, not help his election in 2016, as the Obama administration claimed…   https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/next-declassification-could-flip-russia-collusion

 

Joe Biden had a Campaign Ad and Stickers Printed and Ready to Go Immediately after NY Times Broke its Trump Tax Story      https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/09/interesting-joe-biden-campaign-ad-stickers-printed-ready-go-immediately-ny-times-broke-trump-tax-story/

 

@1776Stonewall: CNN/NY Times Headline reads: “Trump paid no income taxes in 10 of past 15 years, beginning in 2000“. . . These dolts don’t even know what year it is. That math doesn’t add up

 

@realDonaldTrump: The Fake News Media, just like Election time 2016, is bringing up my Taxes & all sorts of other nonsense with illegally obtained information & only bad intent. I paid many millions of dollars in taxes but was entitled, like everyone else, to depreciation & tax credits…..

 

@seanmdav: Gee, I wonder who might have illegally leaked Trump’s tax information to the New York Times. Could it possibly be the left-wing NYC district attorney who happens to run the only entity that just got access to Trump’s tax returns? It’s a real mystery.

 

The reason that the MSM, Dems and Trump haters pined for Trump’s tax returns is that they thought there would be business with Russia and funds from Russia in them.  They are now chagrined.

 

New York Times Debunks Several Conspiracy Theories with Trump’s Tax Returns

https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2020/09/27/new-york-times-debunks-several-conspiracy-theories-with-trumps-tax-returns/

 

@realDonaldTrump: Joe Biden just announced that he will not agree to a Drug Test. Gee, I wonder why?

 

Biden called another ‘lid’ on Monday morning, with only 5 weeks to the election.

 

Biden’s bid to oust Ukraine prosecutor followed intense pressure by son’s Burisma firm

Hunter Biden and representatives of Burisma Holdings secured at least six high-level meetings with senior Obama administration officials in the weeks just before Vice President Joe Biden forced the firing of the Ukrainian prosecutor investigating the gas company, according to newly disclosed memos and testimony…  https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/joe-bidens-bid-oust-ukraine-prosecutor-followed-intense

 

The 1st Presidential Debate begins at 21:00 ET and is scheduled to end at 22:30 ET.

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: