OCT 2//GOLD DOWN $9.30 TO $1902.80//SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TO $23.88//COMEX GOLD TONNAGE UP TO 95.37 TONNES/SILVER CLOSE TO 9 MILLION OZ STANDING: TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE// TED BUTLER AND ALASDAIR MACLEOD: READING MATERIAL THIS WEEKEND//JOBS REPORT (FAKE)//FACTORY ORDERS WEAK//

GOLD:$1902.80 DOWN  $9.30   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$23.88 DOWN  $0.17   London spot price ( cash market)

your data…

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1900.90  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $23.76//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

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CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

OCT GOLD:  1901.50  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /:  $1.30 BACKWARD!! A MAGNET FOR LONDON PURCHASERS OF GOLD!

DEC. GOLD  $1904.20   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $1.40/ CONTANGO   ( $4.50 BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO) //

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER NOV COMEX CLOSE;   $24.00…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 12 CENTS CONTANGO/ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO//)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $23.91  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       :   3  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO (   3 CENTS BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO )

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today: 1173/4015

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,908.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/01/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 10/05/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 666 254
099 H DB AG 115
104 C MIZUHO 50
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 181
132 C SG AMERICAS 23
135 H RAND 1
167 C MAREX 100
323 C HSBC 3
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 51
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 36
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 8
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 4
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 216
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 198
661 C JP MORGAN 3226 985
661 H JP MORGAN 188
690 C ABN AMRO 162
709 C BARCLAYS 735
709 H BARCLAYS 678
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 6
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 18 58
880 C CITIGROUP 33
905 C ADM 4 28
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 4,015 4,015
MONTH TO DATE: 16,406

issued:3226

GOLDMAN SACHS STOPPED 254 CONTRACTS.

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT. CONTRACT: 4015 NOTICE(S) FOR 401500 OZ  (12.49 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  16.406 NOTICES FOR 1,640,600 OZ  (51.029 tonnes) 

SILVER//OCTOBER CONTRACT

162 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 810,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1207 for 6,035,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $10799   DOWN 145

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:  $10,518  DOWN 100 DOLLARS .

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GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

A DEPOSIT OF 9.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD

GLD: 1,278.19 TONNES OF GOLD//

WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.489 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//

SLV: 549.116  MILLION OZ./

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Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 574 CONTRACTS FROM 154,828 UP TO 155,402, AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG $0.66 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO CONSIDERABLE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING..  COUPLED AGAINST A WEAK EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A HUGE INCREASE IN SILVER OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR OCT.  WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1135 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A TINY  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  450, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  OCT 0;  DEC:  450, MARCH  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  450 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE $0.66) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (1135 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE GAIN IN OI WAS DUE TO i)BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A GOOD GAIN IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  FOR OCTOBER, iii) GOOD COMEX GAIN AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

We have now switched to silver for our spreaders!!

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT. HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

OCT

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF OCT:

871 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 871 CONTRACTS) OR 4.355 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 436 CONTRACTS OR 2.177 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF OCT: 4.355 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 0.622% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,461.40 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                78.360 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)

OCT EFP                                 4.355   MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 574, WITH OUR STRONG $0.66 RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY.…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A WEAK SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 450 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 1024 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $0.66 RISE IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 450 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A GOOD SIZED INCREASE OF 574 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.66 RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $24.05 // THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.777 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 111% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW AUGUST  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 162 NOTICE(S) FOR 810,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 485 CONTRACTS TO 555,482 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR VERY STRONG GAIN IN PRICE  OF $19.70 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// THURSDAY. WE PROBABLY HAD SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING  ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE PROBABLY HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION BUT A STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX….THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG RISE IN PRICE OF $19.70. 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  81//

WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 2026 CONTRACTS  (6.30 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2511 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . OCT: 0 DEC: 2511; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2511.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 555,482. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2026 CONTRACTS: 457 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2251 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 2026 CONTRACTS OR 6.30 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2511) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZE LOSS IN COMEX OI  (485 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2026 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)A HUGE  STANDING AND A GOOD INCREASE AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT OCT. MONTH TO 95.347 TONNES)  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ;4) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//THURSDAY//$19.70.

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 3472, CONTRACTS OR 347,200 oz OR 10.799 TONNES (2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 961 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 10.799 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 10.799/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.340% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,573.82  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE EXTREMELY LOW)

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       178.49 TONNES (EFP’s AGAIN RISING DUE TO BACKWARDATION/LOWER FUTURE PREMIUMS//THUS LESS COST TO CARRY)

OCT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE.                        10.799 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 574 CONTRACTS FROM 154,828 UP TO 155,402 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1)   SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING , 2) A WEAK ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A HUGE INCREASE IN STANDING  FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR OCT., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

EFP ISSUANCE 450 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 OCT: 0 AND DEC. 450 AND MARCH:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 450 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 574 CONTRACTS TO THE 450 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1024 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.120 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.66 RISE IN PRICE///

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 155.22 POINTS OR 0.61%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7530 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  FELL BY BY A SMALL 485 CONTRACTS TO 557,424 MOVING FURTHER FROM   RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG RISE OF $19.70 IN GOLD PRICING /THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2511 CONTRACTS).   WE  ALSO PROBABLY HAD  1)  SOME CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING,  2)   ZERO  LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  STRONG GOLD STANDING AT THE  COMEX//OCT. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2026 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 81

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2511 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:   OCT: DEC 2511; FEB// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2511  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 2026 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2511 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 485 COMEX CONTRACTS.. THE BIG NEWS IS THE POWERFUL LEVEL OF OCTOBER 2020 CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY. ( 95.138 tonnes).

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $19.70).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED   6.30 TONNES,

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 2026, CONTRACTS OR 202600 OZ OR 6.30 TONNES.

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  555,482 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 55.54 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1727 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1727/2200 OR 78.50% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 203,250 contracts// volume poor/

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  269,626 contracts//  volume: POOR //most of our traders have left for London

OCT 2 /2020

OCT. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT GOLD
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 64,237.698 oz

BRINKS

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 0
OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
4015 notice(s)
 401500 OZ
(12.49 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
14,248 contracts
(1,424,800 oz)
44.31 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
16406 notices
1640,600 OZ
51.029 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into Brinks:  64,237.698 oz

total deposit: 64,237.698 oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

total customer deposit:  nil

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

total withdrawals; nil  oz

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

ADJUSTMENTS: 0 // 

The front month of OCT registered a total of 18,263 contracts for a LOSS of 5871 contracts. We had 5949 notices filed yesterday so we gained 78 contracts or 7800 additional oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October. In gold we have not seen queue jumping start so early in the month. Thus you can bet the farm that throughout October, the total number of gold oz standing will increase from this level.

November gained 148 contracts to stand at 932.

The big December contract GAINED 4298 contracts UP to 445,286 contracts..

THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH OI STANDING FOR OCTOBER (95.347 tonnes). GENERALLY OCTOBER IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY(GOLDMAN SACHS) JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE ON OCTOBER FOR PHYSICAL METAL. GOLDMAN SACHS ONE OF THE LEADERS OF THE NEW LONDON LME EXCHANGE NEEDS THE GOLD INVENTORY FOR LIQUIDITY AND INITIAL CONTRIBUTION WITH OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MONTH AND OTHER MONTHS IS THAT THIS GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER WILL LEAVE THE COMEX AND HEAD FOR LONDON.

We had  4015 notices filed today for  401500 oz OR 12.49 TONNES.

FOR THE OCT 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from
JPMorgan dealer account and  3226 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 4015  contract(s) of which 188  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 985 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 254 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,406) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT (18,263 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (4015 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,065,400 OZ OR 95.347 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of Oct

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (16,406, x 100 oz +18,263 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (4015) x 100 oz which equals 3,065,400 oz standing OR 95.104 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a OCT delivery month (a poor active delivery month).

We gained 78 contracts or an additional 7800 oz will stand on this side of the pond searching for metal.

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

592,648.822 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  18.433 TONNES ( A HUGE INCREASE FROM 10.6)

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

277,934.09 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.644 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               19.017 tonnes

51,084.609 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.588 tonnes jpm

total pledged gold:  1,574,454.119 oz                                     48.97 tonnes

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 476.99 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 95.104 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  16,909,937.914 oz or 525.96 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,574,454.119 oz or 48.97 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,335,483.0  (476,99 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,335,483.0.0 (476.99 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  19,948,087.578 oz (620.46 tonnes) dropping in weight

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  36,858,025.492 oz 1,146.43 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1020.09 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

OCT 2/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDINGS

OCT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
131,497.150 oz
CNT
Delaware
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
546,552.500 oz
Manfra
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,012,674.220 oz
JPMorgan
Delaware
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
162
CONTRACT(S)
(810,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
573 contracts
 2,865,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1207 contracts

6,035,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 1 deposits into the dealer:
i) Into Manfra:  546,552.500 oz

total dealer deposits: 546,552.500      oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 3 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i)into JPMorgan:  575,718.600 oz

ii) Into  Delaware; 992.800 oz

iii) Into Scotia:  546,552.500

JPMorgan now has 186.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.27% of all official comex silver. (186.7 million/378.941 million

total customer deposits today:  3,339,411.780   oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

i) Out of DELAWARE  1989.00 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 9667.800 oz
iii) Out of HSBC:  119,840.35 0z

total withdrawals; 131,497.150    oz

We had 2 adjustments/  dealer to customer

i) Brinks:  5023.400

ii) CNT: 5,134.300

Total dealer(registered) silver: 140.918 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  378.941 million oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

October had  735 notices outstanding for a GAIN of 68 contracts.  We had 19 notices served upon yesterday so we GAINED 87 contracts or 435,000 additional oz of silver will stand in this non active month of October.

November saw a gain of 91 notices up to 382 contracts.

December saw a GAIN of 173 contracts up to 131,941 contracts.

The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2020. contract month is represented by 162 contract(s) FOR 810,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1207 x 5,000 oz = 6,035,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT( 735) and the number of notices served upon today 162x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 1,207 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT  (735)- number of notices served upon today (162) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month .equals 8,900,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH.

We gained 87 contracts or 435,000 additional oz will  stand for silver metal on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into a London based forwards.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 66.411 CONTRACTS // volume  rather slow//

FOR YESTERDAY  76,636  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME// slower than normal/

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 97,254 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.486 billion  OZ 69.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 2.79% ((OCT 2/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO -0.67% to NAV:   (OCT 2/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/2.79%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.26 TRADING 18.60///NEGATIVE 3.42

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 9.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.19 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $19.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 30//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.10//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

/SEPT 28//WITH GOLD UP $14.30 DOLLARS: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 25//WITH GOLD DOWN 410.80 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1266.84 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14TONNES.

SEPT 23//WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 11.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY, A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 18.98 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTER THE GLD///// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.62TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.94 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1259.64TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $10.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT: 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.05 TODAY: A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 15//WITH GOLD UP $2.25 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .43 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD  DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.00 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.92 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 ON THIS 2ND DAY OF A 3 DAY RAID:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 TODAY, WE HAVE 2 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF .87 TONNES AND.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 31//WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES/

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $38.20 TODAY, WE SURPRISINGLY HAD A .59 TONNE WITHDRAWAL//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD DOWN 17.50 TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1252.09 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $26.70  TODAY/  WE  HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD//RESTS AT 1248.85 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY, WE  HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//RESTS AT 1252.38 TONNES

AUGUST 24//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.20 TODAY: WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.38 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

OCT 2/ GLD INVENTORY 1268.89 tonnes*

LAST;  913 TRADING DAYS:   +338.35 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 813 TRADING DAYS://+517.28  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.116 MILLION OZ//

OCT 1/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.489 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.116 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 96 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 186,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.605 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER UP 86 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.791 MILLILON OZ//

SEPT 28//WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.769 MILLION OZ CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.791 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 TRANSACTIONS: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.28 MILION OZ FROM THE SLV AND A DEPOSIT OF 1.861 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.022 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23//WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.048 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.141 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.491 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.43 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.862 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.350MILLION OZ//

SEPT 18. WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.537 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.793 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY:  HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS A) 1.675 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER B) 0.931 MILLION OZ/ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.956 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.63 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.169 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 15  CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.631 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.258 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.430 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 2.WITH SILVER DOWN $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.365 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY REST AT 571.688 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 1//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 80 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.982 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 4.652 MILLION OZ ENTERS THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.071 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS  TODAY// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.65 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.419 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.074 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 24//WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A NO CHANGES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.843  MILLION OZ//

OCT 2.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

549.116 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Butler thinks that the raids on gold and silver will be over and that only the algos and their HFT brethren will be left to move the precious metals. He thinks gold and silver will now rise from this point on

Ted Butler

Ted Butler: Government’s settlement with JPMorgan is more than a slap on the wrist

 Section: 

8:50p ET Thursday, October 1, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Silver market analyst Ted Butler today explains why he thinks the settlement by the Justice Department and Commodity Futures Trading Commission with JPMorganChase about the bank’s manipulation of gold and silver futures prices is more than the trivial “slap on the wrist” widely suspected.

Butler notes that the bank now is operating under a “deferred prosecution agreement” with the Justice Department and isn’t likely to mess with the gold and silver futures markets for a while

He thinks the bank’s termination of its “spoofing” will increase the price impact of “high-frequency trading.” He also thinks the resolution of the case will increase suspicions of market rigging in gold and silver and cause traders to be more watchful.

And the settlement, Butler argues, increases the likelihood that gold and silver prices will rise.

Butler’s analysis is headlined “The DOJ-CFTC-JPMorgan Settlement” and it’s posted at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:

https://silverseek.com/article/dojcftcjpmorgan-settlement

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Actiom Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

The DOJ/CFTC/JPMorgan Settlement

As widely telegraphed over the past week, the US Justice Department and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (along with the SEC) have settled the precious metals spoofing/manipulation case which first came into view in November 2018 with the announcement of a guilty plea by a former JPMorgan trader. The total fine of $920 million was the largest in CFTC history and the settlement included a Deferred Criminal Prosecution Agreement, the third (by my count) such agreement involving precious metals manipulation (BankAmerica and Scotiabank had previously entered into DPA’s involving precious metals manipulation).

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/jpmorgan-chase-co-agrees-pay-920-million-connection-schemes-defraud-precious-metals-and-us

As expected, the settlement narrowly focuses on spoofing, the illegal short term trading device and not the much more serious long term suppression of silver (and gold) prices that I claim JPMorgan has been guilty of since 2008.  As such, any claims by victims of JPMorgan’s illegal activities would have to show damage from very short term trading, a difficult and expensive undertaking. As I have explained previously, were the Justice Department and CFTC to have alleged a long term suppression of prices by JPMorgan that would have, effectively, put the bank out of business – period. Accordingly, no such finding was possible.

I’m not going to spend too much time on summarizing the case to this point, as it would be more instructive to look ahead and I believe there is plenty to anticipate as a result of the settlement. As long term subscribers might be aware, I began my focus on JPMorgan’s manipulation of silver and gold a year before I started this subscription service (in August 2009) when I discovered, via the August 2008 Bank Participation Report that JPM became the largest short seller in COMEX silver and gold as result of its takeover of Bear Stearns in March 2008. Subsequently, of the more than 1100 articles I have penned on these pages, almost all have featured and accused JPMorgan of manipulation. (I’ve sent all my articles to JPMorgan and the CFTC, as well as the CME Group).

As a result of a number of my articles around the time of the August 2008 Bank Participation Report and reader petitions, a formal 5 year investigation was initiated by the CFTC into silver manipulation, involving the DOJ and which was later reported to have focused on JPMorgan.  Although that investigation was concluded with no charges, I continued to allege that JPMorgan was manipulating the silver and gold markets.

On April 30, 2018, I called and wrote to the Public Integrity Section of the FBI, complaining that the CFTC was guilty of malfeasance in allowing JPMorgan to amass a perfect trading record in COMEX silver and gold futures, in which it never suffered a trading loss when shorting excessive amounts of metals contracts and then used its ability to suppress prices to accumulate massive amounts of physical silver and gold on the cheap. Based upon the timeline of the case and recent reporting on Bloomberg, I’m convinced my complaint prompted the Justice Department to take a closer look at JPMorgan, the first step of a process that concluded yesterday.

So while the Justice Department took a pass on going after JPMorgan on the much more serious grounds of price suppression and the accumulation of physical silver and gold at the manipulated prices it created by excessive short selling, at least it dinged JPM pretty good and, most importantly, brushed the bank back from hugging the plate (a baseball term for intimidation). While the $920 million monetary penalty is the largest in CFTC history, it’s widely acknowledged that to JPMorgan, it is no more than nickels and dimes.

The same cannot be said of the Deferred Criminal Prosecution Agreement; particularly because this is not JPMorgan’s first DPA. The only thing worse is a straight criminal prosecution, which would, effectively, put a financial institution out of business (think Arthur Anderson).  Although individual traders from JPMorgan still face criminal prosecution, that’s quite different than the bank itself being so charged. More than any amount of a monetary fine, a DPA carries serious ramifications and you can be sure that it has gotten JPM’s attention – just as it did BankAmerica/Merrill Lynch and Scotiabank, which also agreed to DPA’s for precious metals spoofing/manipulation. It’s getting to be easier to name those banks not (yet) agreeing to a DPA for spoofing.

Make no mistake, none of these banks would be so foolhardy as to knowingly violate the terms of their agreements with the Justice Department. And these agreements are not limited to spoofing; they include all manner of activities that can be considered illegal or manipulative. You can be sure that every attempt will be made at JPMorgan and the other banks, even those not charged, to remain on the up and up in precious metals for the foreseeable future. As such, this is not a big inducement to continue the decades-old COMEX manipulation. And that’s the first big takeaway.

I know the popular prevailing opinion is that JPMorgan got a wrist slap and it will soon be back to manipulating silver and gold. I would respectfully disagree. Criminal activity is not well-served when it is under close scrutiny by those capable of putting the criminals in prison or out of business. Suddenly, the landscape for continued price manipulation in silver (and gold) has gotten quite inhospitable. The old way of doing business would appear to have changed. Let me be clear in what I am saying. I think this settlement is far more significant than is widely believed.

I will acknowledge upfront that just because I have been on JPMorgan’s case like white on rice since the fall of 2008 and engaged in attempting to end the COMEX silver manipulation for more than 35 years, does it mean that my take is correct. If I turn out to be wrong, I will admit it, as and when the evidence dictates. But at this point, I believe the settlement is a seminal event in what has been a lifetime journey for me. Not just because of the settlement, but including other important factors as well, I believe the price path ahead for silver will be markedly different from the past.

In addition to confirming (at least to me) that my complaint of April 30, 2018 to the FBI was what tripped off the fresh look by the Justice Department into JPMorgan months later, I learned something important from the Bloomberg article written in advance of the just-announced settlement.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-28/inside-the-jpm-precious-metals-desk-called-a-crime-ring-by-prosecutors

What I learned from the article was that spoofing – the entering of orders immediately canceled and intended to manipulate prices in the very short term – was a trading device developed by JPMorgan and other banks to offset the effects of High Frequency Trading (HFT) – computer to computer operations run by non-bank trading firms. I did know that the banks were the main practitioners of spoofing (due to repeated public charges), but never knew why that was so. Let’s face it, I and most of you aren’t engaged in high-speed computer to computer trading, as it has nothing to do with long term analysis and investment.

Yet, at the same time, as I described just a few days ago in the weekly review, this HFT and high-speed computer to computer trading has come to dominate not just silver and gold, but trading in all markets. I’m not excusing in any way the banks resorting to the illegal practice of spoofing to counterbalance the price-controlling influence of widespread and all-encompassing computer to computer trading, I’m just explaining that I learned something I feel is important from the Bloomberg article.

As a result, it seems to me, at a minimum, that the crackdown by the regulators on spoofing by the banks means that an important counterbalance to the all-pervasive influence of computer to computer trading has just been eliminated, or largely so, making HFT even more of a price influence than otherwise. I can’t imagine this was the Justice Department’s or CFTC’s intent, but the road to (price) perdition is paved with good intentions. It’s hard for me to see how the settlement doesn’t strengthen the influence of high-speed computer to computer trading.  What does this mean for silver and gold?

Well for starters, as I discussed on Saturday, this should increase price volatility and the magnitude of both up and down price moves. There’s little question in my mind that the sharp, near $10 price rise in silver in mid-July, followed by the more recent sharp, near $7 price selloff, reflects the growing influence of high speed computer to computer trading, aided by the forced withdrawal from spoofing by the banks. I am not necessarily putting a value judgement on this development, just trying to analyze the facts as they appear. That said, I think the price discovery process is nuts, but it is what it is.

Therefore, it seems most reasonable to expect sharper up and down moves than we’ve seen until now and position ourselves as appropriately as possible – meaning first to be mentally prepared for big down, but especially big up moves in silver. In fact, I don’t have much difficulty seeing a fairly quick up move in silver, whenever it starts, of $20 or more due to the effect of now-unencumbered high-speed computer to computer trading, coupled with silver’s spectacular fundamentals and the inevitability of an industrial user/investor rush to the physical metal.

Overarching the retreat from spoofing by the banks and the strengthening of HFT, of course, is the likely behavior of the 8 big shorts in COMEX silver and gold. While the Justice Department and CFTC will remain silent on this issue, from fear of attracting attention to the main reason for silver’s long term price suppression, the CFTC’s own data reveal a remarkable change of pattern over the past year or so in gold and more recently in silver. It’s no secret that these big shorts have suffered mightily (despite very recent relief on the latest selloff) for the first time where they have always enjoyed previous consistent success. And the big shorts have certainly appeared to have lost their previous appetite for shorting in near-unlimited quantities on rallies of late.

I am not suggesting the risk of selloffs is a thing of the past. What I am suggesting is that a confluence of forces have aligned that promise to propel silver (and gold) prices far higher than is currently imagined. While it is in the eye of the beholder as to whether the just-announced settlement between the DOJ/CFTC and JPMorgan was a wrist slap or a seminal event, I would suggest it could be both. Lost in the settlement is the fact that JPMorgan still has managed to pull off the double cross of the ages against its former big short partners in crime. In fact, its agreement with the regulators puts it in perfect position to do the one thing that would make the bank the most money possible, namely, nothing.

If JPMorgan abides by the terms of the Deferred Criminal Prosecution Agreement it has just entered into with the Justice Department and ceases to spoof or otherwise engage in manipulative trading practices, it’s hard for me to see how silver (and gold) prices don’t soon soar. In effect, the DOJ and CFTC have given JPMorgan the go-ahead to make a bloody fortune (on top of the bloody fortune it has already amassed). By not adding to shorts or engaging in spoofing to offset HFT high-speed computer to computer trading, there’s no reason prices won’t soar at some point.

I still reckon that JPMorgan or its insiders hold at least 700 million ounces of physical silver and 25 million ounces of physical gold on which more than $20 billion in open profits have accrued (despite the recent selloff). And my estimates may be too low. For instance, I claim that JPMorgan has been accumulating physical metals for some 9 years. In the case of gold, JPM’s holdings would amount to less than one percent of all the gold bullion in the world (less than a half of one percent of all the gold in the world). But seeing how long JPM has been accumulating physical metal and has, effectively, unlimited buying power, is it inconceivable that it could have accumulated, instead of less than one percent of the world’s gold bullion, less than two percent? That would give it 50 million ounces of gold. Just sayin’.

If the settlement does result in JPMorgan sitting on its hands and allowing silver and gold prices to soar, then we are about to enter a new era – quite different than the past several decades. If, however, JPMorgan and the other big shorts quickly resort to past practice, as most widely believe, and add aggressively to short positions on the next rally, then what I just opined will be wrong and I will admit as much. But it has been quite some time – more than six months since either JPM or the other big COMEX shorts have aggressively added to silver and gold shorts on the COMEX and I believe it is no coincidence that the lack of new shorting contributed mightily to what were the greatest price rallies in gold and silver in history. And I see no reason that, if the lack of shorting continues, even greater rallies lie ahead.

Finally, the fact that the settlement has now been finalized and widely publicized means that more observers, not less, are now at least somewhat aware that JPMorgan and other banks have engaged in illegal trading activities in COMEX silver and gold. With that greater awareness comes a greater sensitivity to suspicions or allegations of additional illegal activities in the future. Certainly, if JPMorgan (or the big 8) adds aggressively to short positions on the next rally, in addition to admitting that my premise about the future was wrong, you can be sure that I will do everything in my power to convince the regulators to get after these sleazy crooks and SOBs. Count on it.

Ted Butler

October 2

END

Your weekend reading material:  emerging evidence of hyperinflation

(Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: The emerging evidence of hyperinflation

 Section: 

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, October 1, 2020

In last week’s article I showed why empirical evidence of fiat money collapses are relevant to monetary conditions today. In this article I explain why the purchasing power of the dollar is hostage to foreign sellers, and that if the Fed continues with current monetary policies the dollar will follow the same fate as John Law’s livre in 1720.

As always in these situations, there is little public understanding of money and the realisation that monetary policy is designed to tax people for the benefit of their government will come as an unpleasant shock.

… 

The speed at which state money then collapses in its utility will be swift.

This article concentrates on the U.S. dollar, central to other fiat currencies, and where the monetary and financial imbalances are greatest. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-emerging-evide…

END:

Dalio and Kitco pretend central banks do not create imaginary of paper gold/silver.

a good read…

(Ray Dalio/Kitco/GATA)

Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates and Kitco News pretend central banks don’t create gold

 Section: 

10:08p ET Thursday, October 1, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Who is more negligent here — Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates for recommending investment in gold because “it’s wise to hold some of what central banks can’t create more of,” or Anna Golubova of Kitco News for failing to challenge that premise by noting that central banks long have created vast amounts of imaginary gold by leasing it and swapping it with other central banks and their agent bullion banks?

… 

Have the Bridgewater people and Golubova really never taken a look at the secret March 1999 report of the staff of the International Monetary Fund, published by GATA eight years ago? The report dislcoses that IMF-member central banks couldn’t bear to publicize their gold swaps and leases because doing so would expose their interventions in the gold and currency markets and be “highly market-sensitive.”

That is, disclosure of swaps and leases might reveal just how much central banks already had rigged the gold and currency markets with imaginary metal and how much ammunition they had left for their rigging.

The secret IMF staff report is here:

http://www.gata.org/node/12016

And don’t the Bridgewater people and Golubova remember the March 2010 hearing of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission at which it was disclosed that bullion banks commonly trade as much as a hundred times more gold than they actually possess? With the help of metal consultancy CPM Group’s Jeffrey Christian, the late GATA board member Adrian Douglas explained it here:

http://www.gata.org/node/8627

And have the Bridgewater people and Golubova never heard of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s testimony to Congress in July 1998? That’s when Greenspan explained that central banks were not leasing gold according to their cover story — to earn a little income on a supposedly dead asset — but rather to push the gold price down. “Central banks,” Greenspan said, “stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise”:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/1998/19980724.htm

That is, for all practical purposes central banks long have been “creating” gold — imaginary gold, unbacked certificate gold — precisely to prevent the old monetary metal from gaining too much value against their own currencies. That’s why the great disparagement of gold in the last two decades has been that even as it has risen in price, it has not kept up with inflation.

Bridgewater Associates, an investment company, is a fiduciary and so is obliged not to mislead its investors. As a news organization Kitco News is obliged not to mislead its readers and viewers, and obliged to question misinformation like Bridgewater’s before reporting it.

But nothing could be more misleading than to tell people that central banks can’t “create” gold when “creating” imaginary gold has been their desperate work for decades.

Golubova’s credulous report on Bridgewater’s pious nonsense can be found at Kitco News here:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-10-01/Ray-Dalio-s-Bridgewater-on-gold-It…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

iii) Other physical stories:

J Johnson’s Commodity report

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/10/02/golds-3-4-billion-dollar-order-is-waiting-to-get-real/

Gold’s 3.4 Billion Dollar Order Is Waiting to Get Real

Posted October 2nd, 2020 at 9:17 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

      Gold is flat to lower in the early morning with the trade at $1,914, down $2.30 after dipping down to $1,895.20 with the high so far today up at $1,923.60. Silver is down 16.9 cents with the trade at $24.07 recovering from the low at $23.58 with the high up at $24.285. The US Dollar is up 13.3 points with the value pegged at 93.895, after passing the double zeros again, with the high at 94.09 and the low much closer at 93.76. Of course, all this happened before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after Nancy and team decided to give themselves a higher relief package instead of learning how to spend within a budget. Please don’t get me wrong here, funds are definitely needed for those that got their jobs canceled by politics. I’m simply waiting to see the list of added-on benefactors. Will these additional funds go to a group of “woke” colleges and institutions, that are currently being defunded because they teach worst-case socialism instead of teaching our children exceptionalism, which is to stand on their own two feet, live within their abilities, adapt, and to thrive on their own earned incomes?

      Could it be the Emerging Markets Currencies we watch, are leading today’s US$ futures prices? It’s something to consider, maybe, with Venezuela’s Bolivar now pricing Gold at 19,116.08, a gain of 118.87 Bolivar with Silver’s price now at 240.399 it too gaining 3.246 Bolivar. Argentina’s Peso price for Gold is now at 145,812.36, an increase of 973.08 Peso’s with Silver price gaining 26.41 with the last trade at 1,833.26 A-Peso’s. Gold under the Turkish Lira also gained 93.42 T-Lira’s with the last trade at 14,812.32, Silver under the same conditions is now priced at 186.343, gaining 0.314 of a T-Lira.

      October Silver’s Delivery Demands now has a post of 735 fully paid for contracts with a Volume of 12 up on the board and a trading range between $24.05 and $23.58 with the last swap at the high, down 14.3 cents from yesterday’s fix. Thursday’s activity inside the deliveries happened in between $23.975 and $23.395 with the last buy at the high with the calculated Comex close figured at $24.19, up 76 cents, and where no trade was made, which included a Volume of 214 which also increased today’s demand count by 68 contracts. Silver’s Overall Open Interest also increased by 625 Contracts bringing today’s early morning total to 155,514 Overnighters to go against the physicals.

      October Gold’s Delivery Demands now has a post of 18,263 fully paid for contracts up on the board with a trading range between $1,913 and $1,893.90 with the last buy at $1,907.20, down $1.20 with a total of 101 contracts swapping hands already. Yesterday’s activity inside the deliveries happened in between $1,909.60 and $1,882.50 with the last buy at $1,903.50 with the cCc at $1,908.40. This is still a 3.483 Billion Dollar order waiting to get real. As of this early morning, Gold’s Overall Open Interest is tallied at 557,424 proving a gain of 768 shorts to trade against the physicals. And just in time too, since we have the Unemployment numbers to deal with in under an hours’ time.

       5 days from today we’ll have another biased debate between the President and all the socialists inside the challengers earpiece and with another clear and pure Joe supporter to ask the fair and balanced questions. I wonder if this debate committee will ever allow the president to pick a narrator, after all Trump did request another Joe to moderate, and it appears the main stream media, cannot let that happen because Joe Rogan is not one of them. Something else that is happening is the NYTimes admits WHO’s decision, not to close our borders at the start of the plandemic, was based on “Politics”, Not Science. We all remember the continued Xenophobic remarks being made with Nancy going to China town to say “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” and how the left was claiming they had science on their side. So, what’s the difference between real science and media promoted (or is it programmed) science? It’s right here being used to support a political side.

      Something else came up last night, our Justice Department sent this …. Proposed Amendments To Address Interest Rate Benchmarks…. “ISDA’s process, including its cooperation with government regulators and its consultation-driven process for obtaining feedback from industry participants, has had the effect of clarifying the practical issues involved in planning for when LIBOR and other IBORs are no longer available and preparing for a smooth transition away from IBORs to other reference rates,” ….. “This is in part because investigations by U.S. and regulators from other jurisdictions uncovered explicit manipulation of the submissions from certain banks to administrators of LIBOR and other interest rate benchmarks. In addition, the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority, LIBOR’s regulator, has publicly stated that firms cannot rely on LIBOR being published after 2021.”

Is this Brexit or another exit?

      Enjoy your weekend and keep the attitudes positive. If you are in possession of physical Silver and Gold, and it’s in your hand, you have more reasons to Don’t worry Be Happy. As Always …

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7850   /shanghai bourse CLOSED

HANG SANG CLOSED

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 155.22 POINTS OR 0.67%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 93.81/Euro FALLS TO 1.1718

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 37.06 and Brent: 39.51

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.55%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.80% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.22%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.35: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.99

3k Gold at $1907.80 silver at: 23.93   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 142/100 in roubles/dollar) 78.47

3m oil into the 37 dollar handle for WTI and 39 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 105.14 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9207 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0791 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.55%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.660% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.435%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.74..

“October Shock”: Markets Tumble After Trump Tests Positive For Covid

After going to bed expecting today’s jobs report to be the highlight of the day, shocked traders woke up this morning to the real October shock: the news tweeted by Donald Trump himself at 12:54am ET, that he and the first lady had tested positive for covid after Hope Hicks, a senior advisor who recently traveled with the president, tested positive.

The result was an immediate flush in US equity futures and global markets which saw the Emini tumble to exactly 3,300 before rebounding modestly into the European open.

AS they sold risk assets, investors rush to safe assets such as gold, U.S. Treasuries and the Japanese yen.  European shares also opened sharply lower, although they recovered some losses in early London trading after the initial overnight move. The STOXX 600 was down 0.6% as of 730am ET. The MSCI world equity index was down 0.2%.

“We’re just a month to the election so this news does throw the election campaign into a disarray for the Republican Party,” said Jingyi Pan, market strategist at IG Asia. “Even though Joe Biden is seen as the friendlier choice for Asia and a Trump absence could in some way or another keep that status quo of a Biden lead, generally, a contested election would generate uncertainties across the world and would not bode well for Asia equities as well.”

After Trump said he had coronavirus, online gambling site Betfair suspended betting on the outcome of the U.S. election. Betfair’s odds had previously shown Democratic challenger Joe Biden’s probability of winning at 60% on Wednesday after the first U.S. presidential debate.

Even before news of Trump’s infection, markets had been more bearish after Washington failed to reach an agreement on a fiscal stimulus package to help the U.S. economy recover from the impact of coronavirus. Late on Thursday, the House passed the Democratic stimulus plan which Republicans oppose, after Speaker Pelosi announce no bipartisan deal was achieved last night

The question now is what happens next as Trump’s exposure could cause a new wave of market volatility with investors braced for the presidential election in November.  How long the risk-averse moves will last depends on the extent of the infection within the White House, said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Swiss wealth manager Prime Partners.

“We may have to wait until the end of the weekend for more clarity on the situation,” he said. “The reaction has been a bit excessive with U.S. stock futures. It doesn’t mean the U.S. administration is not able to function. It will weigh on the market today and early next week but will not induce a long-lasting correction if the infection is contained to Trump,” he added.

Following the news, the U.S. dollar index rose and the safe-haven yen made its biggest jump in more than a month, reaching 104.95. Versus a basked of currencies, the dollar was up 0.1% on the day at 93.820. The Australian dollar, which serves as a liquid proxy for risk, was down 0.5%. The euro was down 0.3% against the dollar, at $1.1721.

In rates, Treasuries remained higher led by long end after fading from session lows. Yields are still inside Wednesday’s ranges ahead of September jobs report at 8:30am ET. Yields were lower by less than 2bp at long end of the curve, with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter less than 1bp; 10-year is down 1.6bp at 0.661%, outperforming little-changed bunds and gilts, after shedding as much as 2.6bp. Yields rebounded from session lows as stock futures pared declines; S&P E-minis have trimmed a 2% drop on Trump health news to about 1.4%. Germany’s benchmark 10-year bond was down around 2 basis points at -0.545%.

In commodities, oil fell, with Brent down 3.3% at $39.57 a barrel to the lowest level since June, having fallen overnight and stabilized somewhat as European markets opened. Gold rose, up 0.1% at $1,906.26 per ounce. “Depending on how this situation evolves over the weekend, notably if more members of the U.S. government’s senior leadership are diagnosed positive, gold could be set for an extended rally,” said Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

Elsewhere, in geopolitics, EU leaders reached an agreement regarding Belarus and Turkey in which they will impose sanctions on Belarus for violence and its election, although President Lukashenko was not included in the sanctions, while it warned that Turkey could face sanctions if it continues with its gas exploration in Cypriot waters. European Council President Michel said the next 2 weeks will be crucial with Turkey and the summit deal opened a path for dialogue but also showed firmness, while they will return to the Turkey question at the December summit. Furthermore, German Chancellor Merkel said EU leaders agreed they want constructive relations with Turkey and hope for negotiating dynamic with the country

Looking ahead, the last round of monthly U.S. unemployment data before the elections is due at 0830 (see preview here), although analysts say this has been relegated to secondary importance. We also get Factory Orders, Uni. of Michigan (F), Fed’s Harker, European Council Special Meeting. Trump’s illness prompted the White House to cancel political events on Friday, including a rally planned outside Orlando, Florida. Campaign and fundraising trips planned for the coming days — including visits to key battlegrounds including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada — are expected to be scrapped.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.2% to 3,327.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 360.49
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 169.91
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 558.19
  • Nikkei down 0.7% to 23,029.90
  • Topix down 1% to 1,609.22
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 23,459.05
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,218.05
  • Sensex up 1.7% to 38,697.05
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 5,791.50
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,327.89
  • Brent Futures down 3% to $39.71/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,909.27
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.06% to 93.77
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to -0.541%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1721
  • Brent Futures down 3% to $39.71/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.4 bps to 0.618%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 0.23%

Top Overnight News

  • Trump’s illness prompted the White House to cancel political events on Friday, including a rally planned outside Orlando, Florida. Campaign and fundraising trips planned for the coming days — including visits to key battlegrounds including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada — are expected to be scrapped.
  • Four months of European Commission consultations with insurance companies, academics and others ends Friday, aimed at agreeing by next year what really counts as “green” in projects funded by such debt

A quick look across global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asian equity markets traded lower and the E-mini S&P is showing substantial losses after US President Trump tested positive for COVID-19. ASX 200 (-1.4%) reversed yesterday’s strength in which energy and mining-related sectors led the downside following weakness across the commodities complex and as a lacklustre financials sector also contributed to the losses for the index. Nikkei 225 (-0.7 %) was initially buoyed at the open as it played catch-up on return from yesterday’s surprise trading halt in Tokyo due to hardware issues, which Japan’s FSA is reportedly to consider a punishment for. This subsequently weighed on Japan Exchange Group shares and Fujitsu was also pressured given that the Co. is the hardware provider for the market operator, while most the gains in the benchmark index were gradually pared alongside a broad tentative tone and with a lack of participants due to closures in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and India. Finally, 10yr JGBs were rangebound amid the mixed risk tone and with price action stuck near the 152.00 focal point, while a tepid Rinban announcement by the BoJ which were present in the market for JPY 570bln, also ensured the lackadaisical price action for government bonds.

Top Asian News

  • Malaysia Airlines in Urgent Restructuring as Pandemic Worsens
  • Australia’s Central Bank Is ‘Dysfunctional,’ Ex- Researcher Says

European cash indices briefly trimmed earlier losses (Euro stoxx 50 -0.9%) which were triggered by US President Trump announcing his positive COVID-19 test, in turn sparking risk aversion across markets. Since then, cash and futures have been attempting to lift off lows, with some Brexit optimism potentially providing support as the news of a videoconference between the European Commission President and the UK PM was received well by participants, alongside the Pound, whilst the two sides will continue with negotiations in the run up to the EU Summit mid-month. That being said, EU diplomats are still downbeat over a Brexit breakthrough whilst a UK minister highlighted that very significant issues need to be resolved. Nonetheless, the attempted recovery was fleeting, Europe trades mostly lower with the exception of Spanish and Austrian stocks, with the former supported by ACS (+18%) after Vinci (+2.6%) submitted a bid to acquire the Co’s industrial division. Sectors meanwhile opened lower across the board, but thereafter gained some composure; albeit, Energy remains the laggard whilst Telecoms tops the charts with follow-through from yesterday’s French 5G auction – which raised EUR 2.8bln, as Iliad (+4.0%), Orange (+2%) and Bouygues (+1.3%) prop up the sector. The sectoral breakdown paints a similar picture with Travel & Leisure still under pressure amid the implications of the COVID-19 resurgence on the sector. In terms of individual movers, Lagardere (-0.2%) trades with modest losses despite Vivendi (+0.6%) upping its shareholding of the Co. to 26.7% from 21.2%. Ryanair (-2.2%) meanwhile sees losses amid source reports that the Co. is mulling purchasing Boeing 737Max aircrafts for ~EUR 16bln, whilst traffic September traffic numbers fell -64% YY and the Co. was operating at around 53% of normal September schedule.

Top European News

  • ECB Takes Major Step Toward Introducing a Digital Euro
  • ACS in Talks to Sell Industrial Unit to Vinci for $6.1 Billion
  • German Regulator Limits Staff Trading After Wirecard Scandal
  • BlackRock Sees Board Governance at VW Going in Reverse

In FX, the Yen is in demand on safe-haven grounds after an initial Greenback rally on news of US President Trump catching the coronavirus saw the DXY knee-jerk just over 94.000, with Usd/Jpy subsequently retreating from around 105.66 to test bids/support below 105.00 and the index hovering just above a 93.709 low. Conversely, the Aussie has borne the brunt of risk aversion, as Aud/Usd reverses from the high 0.7100 region through 0.7150, with little consolation from retail sales not dropping quite as much as expected in August. Ahead, NFP would ordinarily command headline status on the first Friday of a new month, but the data now looks somewhat inconsequential in light of the aforementioned events in Washington.

  • GBP – More wild swings for Sterling, partly in line with broad sentiment, but again due to Brexit developments in the main and independently of other external or domestic factors. Cable is firmly back over 1.2900 and Eur/Gbp circa 0.9060 compared to 0.9100+ at one stage following reports that UK PM Johnson and European Commission President von der Leyen will hold a video call on Saturday to assess the situation on trade talks after this week’s formal round of discussions, and the former will push for the 2 sides to enter the tunnel stage of negotiations even though EU chief of Brexit matters, Barnier, is unsure the time is right.
  • CAD/NZD/EUR/CHF – All still softer against their US counterpart, with the Loonie pivoting 1.3300, Kiwi midway between 0.6654-16 parameters, Euro holding above 1.1700 within a 1.1697-1.1750 range and Franc straddling 0.9200. Aside from keeping a White House vigil in the run up to monthly US jobs data, Eur/Usd looks well flanked by decent option expiries given 1.3 bn at 1.1700, 2 bn at 1.1750 and 1.7 bn at 1.1800, if recent peaks in the headline pair are breached. For the record, very little reaction to softer than forecast prelim Eurozone inflation as the individual national reports indicated a downside skew to consensus.
  • SCANDI/EM – The Norwegian Crown may be deriving some traction from a lower than anticipated September jobless rate to compensate for weak oil prices and the impending strike action, but Eur/Nok is not down as much in percentage terms as Eur/Sek, albeit back under the psychological 11.0000 level in similar vein to the latter that has crossed 10.50000 to the downside. Elsewhere, EM currencies are broadly softer vs the Usd, but especially the Rub amidst ongoing diplomatic and geopolitical tensions, on top of Brent losing grip of the Usd 40/brl handle

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures remain pressured, albeit volatility has somewhat cooled down in recent trade, with the initial downside sparked by the risk aversion experienced following President Trump’s positive test. Newsflow which sent WTI Nov and Brent Dec to lows of USD 37.22/bbl (vs. high 38.65/bbl) and USD 39.40/bbl respectively (vs. high 40.77/bbl). Again, crude-specific news flow has been light and we are awaiting the NFP data for some impetus; alongside any further developments around Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis. Looking ahead, next week seems fairly quiet in terms of crude-specific events, although the OPEC World Oil Outlook on the 8th could garner some attention with regards to its medium-term forecasts, but there is a possibly the release will get sideline if the report is consistent with the July release – as was the case last year. Spot gold meanwhile was bid early-doors on safe-haven inflow, which took the yellow metal to a high of USD 1917/oz, whilst spot silver briefly topped USD 24/oz before both precious metals waned off highs. In terms of base metals, LME copper fell to the lowest in seven weeks due to USD upside and sentiment effect from US President Trump. Meanwhile, aluminium prices fell amid talks of US aluminium exemptions for producers in UAE and Bahrain.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 875,000, prior 1.37m; Change in Private Payrolls, est. 875,000, prior 1.03m
    • Unemployment Rate, est. 8.2%, prior 8.4%
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%; Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.8%, prior 4.7%
    • Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.6, prior 34.6
    • Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 61.9%, prior 61.7%; Underemployment Rate, prior 14.2%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 79, prior 78.9; Current Conditions, prior 87.5; Expectations, prior 73.3
  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. 0.9%, prior 6.4%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 1.1%, prior 2.1%
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 1.7%, prior 1.8%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 1.5%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m not sure if it’s just me but I seem to have fought off more “Daddy longlegs” in the last few weeks than I can remember in my entire life. It could be local to me but they are everywhere. The twins are very amusing as they have only just discovered Daddy longlegs and think they are the funniest thing in the world. They also ask where Mummy shortlegs are? They then laugh at their own jokes. I’ve taught them well.

The US political spider’s web continued to dominate the narrative yesterday. Notwithstanding this, markets got off to a steady but solid start to Q4. By the close, the S&P 500 was up +0.53% and at a two-week high, though the index fell back somewhat from its opening gains following a report that Speaker Pelosi had told her deputies that she was sceptical a stimulus agreement would be reached. Markets seem to be caught between the crossfire of volatile stimulus news and a steady increase in the probability of a Biden victory in recent days according to respected modellers. Indeed FiveThirtyEight’s model ticked up to an 80% probability of a Biden win for the first time yesterday. Although Trump has traditionally been seen as good for stocks, the uncertainty of a close election, and a possible contested one at that, has been a dampener of late. If markets got more and more convinced of a Democrat clean sweep then this a) reduces uncertainty and b) potentially paves the way for a bigger fiscal stimulus after January. So Biden positive news can outweigh short-term negative news on stimulus.

Indeed, US fiscal stimulus discussions again dominated headlines yesterday. Pelosi said that the two parties are still a ways apart on the total size of stimulus and the means in which it is apportioned. It is likely that the latter is the larger sticking point as the White House has offered $1.6 trillion, well above $1 trillion figures many Senate Republicans were already uncomfortable with. The Democrats’ most recent offer of $2.2 trillion – down from their original $3.5 trillion bill – passed late last night although Senate Republicans are expected to reject it. Pelosi said that she would continue talks with Mnuchin while the passed bill will act as public account for what here caucus was pushing for. The S&P 500 dropped half a per cent yesterday when the intention to vote was announced as it signaled the talks had likely not closed the gap. Lawmakers in both chambers are expected to recess ahead of the elections next week but can be called back to take part in a vote if anything were to get done.

In advance of that, equity markets generally moved higher on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday amidst the stimulus discussions and increased probabilities of a more definitive election outcome, particularly large cap tech stocks once again as the NASDAQ gained +1.42%, while the S&P 500 was ‘only’ up +0.53% with the STOXX 600 up +0.20%. The biggest drivers of the S&P and the NASDAQ were those mega-cap tech stocks such as Netflix (+5.50%) and Amazon (+2.30%). On the gap between US and European equity markets, our CoTD yesterday showed that although the gap has been widening over the last decade, if you strip out just 10 mega-cap growth stocks from the S&P 500 then the Stoxx 600 has only been slightly behind the “S&P 490” since the end of 2014. See the evidence here.

Back to markets, andthe energy sector lagged behind yesterday as a result of the major declines in oil prices. Both Brent crude (-3.24%) and WTI (-3.73%) suffered significant losses thanks to concerns about oversupply. Copper, another industrial commodity, had its worst performance (-5.51%) since March as poor global demand weighed on the metal. Precious metals on the other hand rose with gold rising +1.07% and silver gaining +2.40%. Sovereign bonds rallied for the most part as well, with yields on 10yr treasuries (-0.6bps) and bunds (-1.4bps) both falling. Italian debt was the real outperformer though, with 10yr yields down -4.5bps and at a 1-year low, while the country’s 30-year yield fell a further -3.2bps to an all-time low. The dollar fell (-0.19%) for the fifth time in the last six sessions, though Wednesday’s was nearly unchanged.

In terms of the coronavirus, there was further negative news from Western Europe, as Italy reported another 2,548 cases, which was the country’s highest daily total since April 24 albeit with higher testing now. This has prompted Prime Minister Conte to seek an extension of his emergency powers until the end of January. Meanwhile in the UK, another 6,914 cases were reported, which sent the 7-day average up to 6,260. However we should note that the 7-day rolling average as seen in the table below is “only” slightly higher than it was a week ago. A similar story for most of the second wave candidates. Regardless officials noted that London may be at a “tipping point” while further restrictions were announced for parts of northern England, including Liverpool, where it will be illegal to meet with other households indoors. More restrictions may be coming to France as well where the Health Minister said they “may have no choice” but to close bars and restaurants again in Paris, saying the city is on “maximum alert”. And over in the US, New York reported the most new virus cases since May. New York City’s positivity rate on first time tests continued to climb, but remained below the 3% threshold that would close schools. Elsewhere in the US, two Wisconsin mayors have asked President Trump to cancel large rallies in the state which currently has one of the highest daily cases per capita in the US.

Today, attention will turn to the US jobs report, which also has added political significance as the last jobs report before Election Day on November 3rd. In terms of what to expect, our US economists think that nonfarm payrolls will grow by another +800k in September (consensus +875k), which should be enough to lower the unemployment rate to 8.2% from 8.4%. Remember however, that even if this were realised, nonfarm payrolls would still be over 10m beneath their peak back in February, so there’s still a long way to go before we get back to pre-Covid levels of employment.

Ahead of that later, the weekly initial jobless claims data for the week through September 26th showed a reduction to 837k, the lowest since the pandemic began. The continuing claims number for the week through September 19th also fell to a post-pandemic low of 11.767m, and the insured unemployment rate fell to 8.1%. The other main data highlight came from the manufacturing PMIs, though these were fairly unexciting, and saw little movement compared to the flash readings. The Euro Area PMI came in at 53.7, exactly in line with the flash reading, the German number was revised down slightly to 56.4 (vs. flash 56.6), and the French number was revised up slightly to 51.2 (vs. flash 50.9). Over in the US, the ISM manufacturing index came in at 55.4 (vs. 56.5 expected), which was a modest pull back from its 56.0 reading in August.

Elsewhere, it was a volatile day for the pound sterling as a raft of Brexit news came through that saw sentiment switch dramatically as the day went on. In the morning, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the beginning of infringement proceedings against the UK on account of the parts of the UK’s internal market bill that violate the Withdrawal Agreement. The EU had previously given the UK until the end of September to remove the relevant provisions from the bill, but with that deadline passing they announced they would be sending a “letter of formal notice” to the UK, which the UK has until the end of October to respond to. Sterling fell to an intraday low of -0.77% in response, though in reality, this is arguably somewhat second order to the ongoing trade negotiations, particularly with the bill having not yet become law and facing serious obstacles in the UK House of Lords. Notably the end-month deadline for the UK to respond is also after Prime Minister Johnson’s self-imposed deadline of October 15 to reach a free-trade deal, so by that point we could be in a very different world depending on how things progress.

Not long after midday however, a tweet from the well-connected FT’s Sebastian Payne sent sterling up to an intraday high of +0.45%, after he said that “Officials with knowledge of the talks say a landing zone on state aid has been identified”. This optimism didn’t last for long though, with sterling falling back again as another headline came through saying that the reports suggesting the two sides were entering the final stage were too optimistic, with differences still remaining on the long-standing sticking points of state aid and fisheries. The 9th round of the negotiations wraps up today in Brussels, with a meeting between the two chief negotiators, so worth keeping an eye out to see if we get any statements from either side of any progress that might have taken place.

To the day ahead now, and as mentioned the US jobs report later is likely to be the main highlight. Otherwise, we’ll get the flash estimate of Euro Area CPI in September, and from the US there’s also the final University of Michigan sentiment reading for September and factory orders for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, along with the ECB’s Holzmann and Hernandez de Cos, while from the Fed we’ll hear from Harker and Kashkari.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 155.22 POINTS OR 0.61%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.42%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7530 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

Trump doing everything possible to remove all trade with China. Now he issues an executive order to combat China’s rare earth dominance.  The world has considerable rare earths: we just cannot mine them at a profit

(zerohedge)

Trump Executive Order Seeks To Combat China’s Rare-Earth Minerals Dominance

On Wednesday President Trump signed an executive order which declared a “national emergency” in the US mining industry, highlighting America’s dangerous overdependence on China for what’s known as rare-earth minerals.

China has been widely acknowledged as dominant in the rare-earth minerals market for decades, which includes a group of obscure minerals (typically 17 identified as such) often used in manufacturing anything from advanced electronics like flat screens to even weapons. For example, one of the most sought after – samarium cobalt – is used in precision guided missiles and fighter jets, and advanced communications systems.

Via Shutterstock

The order says that  “our Nation’s undue reliance on critical minerals, in processed or unprocessed form, from foreign adversaries constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat.”

China began cementing its global dominance in the 1980s after the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the International Atomic Energy Agency moved to severely restrict rare-earth mineral mining related to environmental concerns.

They are deemed “rare” precisely because there are no known alternatives to them, and given they’ve been key in developing specific technologies preponderant among industrialized populations.

The order’s text specifically charges that Beijing has intentionally exploited its position in the market, especially regarding 35 minerals that are “essential to the economic and national security of the United States”:

Our dependence on one country, the People’s Republic of China (China), for multiple critical minerals is particularly concerning. The United States now imports 80 percent of its rare earth elements directly from China, with portions of the remainder indirectly sourced from China through other countries. In the 1980s, the United States produced more of these elements than any other country in the world, but China used aggressive economic practices to strategically flood the global market for rare earth elements and displace its competitors.

Rare-earth minerals file image

As Reuters underscores, “While the United States used to be the leading producer of the minerals, China has used its heft in the industry to its advantage in the trade dispute between the two world leaders.”

No doubt this remains a crucial US vulnerability weakening Washington leverage amid Trump’s ongoing trade dispute, as well as select sanctions on the mainland related to the Hong Kong issue and other geopolitical pressure spots.

“We could certainly, especially under the auspices of the [executive order] that just came out yesterday, work with the interagency, because there is already a lot of work going on to look at expanding the national defense stockpile to include more rare earths,” she said in her Thursday remarks.

end
Trump will not be happy with this: The guys who sent the virus to the USA gloats that Trump has paid the price.
(zerohedge)

Chinese State Media Gloats That Trump Has “Paid The Price” & US Image Suffered

Perhaps as expected certain Chinese state media mouthpieces have app

Teared gleeful and gloating upon the unprecedented news that President Trump and the First Lady have tested positive for COVID-19.

The editor-in-chief of the Chinese Community Party run Global Times, Hu Xijin, said in first reaction that the president and Melania “have paid the price” and further that it is sure to have a “negative impact” on his image and that of the United States.

The Global Times editor has long trolled the US over its handling of the coronavirus pandemic while simultaneously touting China’s rapid and rigorous planned response which kept its numbers low compared to the population.

Yet the US administration has long attacked leaders in Beijing for early on downplaying it to the world, and not just that but outright lying about it when the seriousness of the novel virus and airborne spread became evident to Chinese health officials late last year into early 2020.

Thus what Trump repeatedly calls the “Chinese virus” (even in the debate) or in other instances “Wuhan virus” was entirely containable if Chine commendist authorities hadn’t deceived the world during the earliest weeks and months, according to the administration.

So likely, the White House would point out that indeed it’s Trump and much of the world that has “paid the price” for Beijing’s ineptitude and deceit in not locking down borders earlier than it did.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey/Azerbaijan/Armenia

Turkey ramps up its involvement in the war between Armenia

and Azerbaijan

(courtesy SouthFront)

Turkey Ramps Up Its Involvement In Armenian-Azerbaijani War

Submitted by SouthFront,

Azerbaijan has given Turkey control over the air segment of its military campaign to capture the Nagorno-Karabakh region, the Armenian Defense Ministry reported on September 30.

According to Artsrun Hovhannisyan, Turkish and Azerbaijani aviation is being coordinated by the E7-T aircraft of the Turkish Air Force, which is an air command post. The military plane was spotted near the Turkish cities of Erzurum and Kars.

“It is possible that the leadership of the Turkish Air Force is on board this plane,” Hovhannisyan added.

As an example of such actions, the Armenian side claimed that two Turkish F-16 fighters, an Azerbaijani Su-25 attack aircraft, as well as a Turkish combat drone “Bayraktar”, which took off from the city of Kurdamir, had inflicted a missile and bomb attack on the Karabakh towns of Hadrut and Martakert.

Further a command and control post for Turkish combat drones is located near the city of Hadrut. It is reportedly coordinating the strikes of Azerbaijani warplanes.

Pro-Armenian sources insist that the Chief of General Staff of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces Najmaddin Sadigov was in fact removed from his command of the Karabakh operation at the behest of Turkish military advisers and specialists. Sadigov was allegedly an opponent of the dramatically increased influence of Turkey in the Azerbaijani military.

Armenia also showed photos of its Su-25 attack aircraft, which, according to it, was downed by a Turkish F-16 on September 29. The pilot of the Su-25, Major Valery Danelin, died. In their turn, Turkey and Azerbaijan insist that the Turkish Air Force and other branches of Turkish military are not involved in the conflict. According to Fahrettin Altun, the head of the communications department of the Turkish presidential administration, Armenian claims are “another fantasy of the Armenian military propaganda machine.” The Azerbaijani side, in turn, said that two Armenian Su-25 warplanes crashed into the mountain and exploded, the rest is absurd and disinformation.

Since September 30, the situation on the frontline between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces has not changed significantly. Despite this, intense firefights, artillery duels and air strikes are being reported along the entire contact line. Armenian sources accuse Azerbaijan and Turkey of intentional bombing of civilian areas of the Nagorno-Karabakh republic, including its capital, and even inside Armenia itself.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan, which ceased to name areas allegedly seized from the Armenians, insists that its forces have captured several key positions on the frontline. According to Baku, since the morning of September 27, its forces have destroyed up to 200 battle tanks and other armored vehicles, 228 artillery pieces, rocket launchers, mortars, 30 air defense systems, 6 command-control and observation posts, 5 ammunition depots, more than 110 vehicles and an S-300 anti-aircraft missile system. The number of killed or injured Armenian fighters was not provided but if one checks previous Azerbaijani reports, it has supposedly already exceeded 1,000.

On the other hand, the Armenian side said that during the last 24 hours only 130 Azerbaijani service members were killed, 260 others were injured, 32 military equipment pieces were destroyed and 13 UAVs were downed.

end

6.Global Issues

Michael Every….the key events of today

(Michael Every)

Infections, Retentions, Creations, And Tensions. In That Order

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Infections, retentions, creations, and tensions. In that order.

Here comes the first October surprise. US President Trump and the First Lady have both tested positive for Covid-19 after one his advisors, Hope Hicks, tested positive for Covid-19 and has also started showing symptoms. She travelled on Air Force One with him to Minnesota last week, and was additionally seen maskless near another presidential advisor. He tweeted:

“Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!”

To say this could potentially be a *big* deal is an understatement. Not much more can be said here at this stage, other than to do what one always does when **anyone** catches Covid – wish them a rapid and full recovery. However, one cannot help but note that Trump is very much in the age and weight category that place him in the higher risk groups, health-wise, and the market and public talk will now be of little else.

Up goes the USD as risk off? It seems that the kneejerk reaction was first to sell USD a little instead, at least until markets can work out exactly how this potentially plays out. Stock futures are certainly going down at time of writing, however. Risk is off there.

Obviously now eclipsed, but in the UK a Scottish Nationalist MP –a political party who have made a name for themselves as good stewards of public health– also started to show virus symptoms….and so decided to get on the train all the way to London; go to the House of Commons and mix with members of Parliament; and then, after a positive test result, to go all the way back to Scotland by train again. As we all know, PM Johnson has already had Covid-19 and ended up on a ventilator after boasting he had been shaking the hands of virus patients. Hopefully there won’t be any repeat for other MPs (or train passengers) now.

Apart from infections, the focus today is going to be very much on employment: both job retentions and job creations.

In the UK as one benchmark there was a report yesterday that 1 in 3 firms are preparing to fire workers imminently. Today we see the Telegraph saying unemployment is expected to reach as high as 4 million in a labour force of around 34 million. That is an entire army of people –actually the equivalent of the US and Russian and Chinese and Indian armies– all needing to be retrained as builders at once. Yet there are also reports the UK was recently looking into copying a Trump policy and building a wall around itself – on the water. This fantastical feat of engineering was apparently being considered as a way to keep the number of illegal asylum seekers arriving by boat over The Channel down. (“Welcome to day one of your builder training course everyone. Please pick up the scuba gear to your left and follow me into the pool.”) There were already some high fevers running in Westminster even before Covid re-entered the building. Does GBP float?

In the US, it will be the last monthly payrolls report before the election, if you can believe it. This will naturally be the figure that Trump will be still be able to Tweet about today, one hopes. The consensus is 875K, which would help close the gap of jobs lost to the Covid shutdown. Risks may be slightly the upside based on the ADP report this week. However, initial claims yesterday made clear yet again that we are far from back to normal. Will it move markets? Maybe not that much given the focus is now more on infection and stimulus.

Indeed, we are also not likely to get back to normal if we don’t see less tension in Washington. Markets have gyrated recently on headlines saying Mnuchin and Pelosi were close, then far, then close to a compromise stimulus deal. Well, the House Democrats just passed their own USD2.2 trillion package, which will of course be rejected by the Republican-held US Senate, so the same old games continue as everyone from the NFIB small business survey to the FOMC cries out for more stimulus, and now. The public reaction at some point may well start to echo that after the recent presidential debate: everyone loses in the most important respects even if a technical win can be claimed by both sides in others. Up went the USD – until that Trump news, which again potentially changes everything.

Meanwhile, there will be tensions in DC on another front. That is on the back of a claim from the head of a House antitrust panel that certain household-name Big Tech firms –who basically are the US economy as far as some markets are concerned– abuse their power as gatekeepers of the internet. There is apparently going to be a recommendation that legislation be passed to rein these giants in. You thought Big Tech was already involved in this election, even if they are not a topic of conversation? Well now they are trillions-of-USD deep involved.

And on another kind of tensions, the EU actually managed to agree something on joint foreign policy, which could be a headline in itself given how rare this achievement is. Targeted sanctions are now going to be put in place on Belarus, and apparently part of the quid-pro-quo of that is that the door remains open to sanctions on Turkey too if it continues to ruffle the feathers of Greece and Cyprus – which will not soothe tensions with Ankara.

Anyway, everything now takes a backseat to the latest incredible twist in this US election campaign.

end

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

World Leaders Wish Trump A “Speedy Recovery” As Global COVID-19 Deaths 

Summary:

  • World leaders wish Trump, First Lady speedy recovery
  • Russia sees biggest jump in months
  • Malaysia sees another daily record
  • Dr. Gottlieb says Trump at “high” risk for serious symptoms
  • Victoria cases fall to lowest level in months

* * *

The biggest COVID-19-related news overnight between Thursday and Friday was unquestionably the news that President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for the coronavirus.

Top administration officials are scrambling to get tested, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has decided to cancel a trip to Asia scheduled for later this week out of an “”abundance of caution”, despite testing negative. No decision has been made yet, Pompeo told a group of journalists on the flight from Rome to Dubrovnik in Croatia. “I spoke with the Vice President’s office this morning as well,” Pompeo said. “We’re taking this obviously very seriously.” Nancy Pelosi said earlier that she hoped Trump’s experience with the virus might prompt him to take the threat more seriously.

With Russia’s COVID-19 outbreak still ravaging Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered “sincere support” to President Trump and the First Lady. The Kremlin says Putin sent Trump a telegram saying “I hope that your inherent vitality, good spirits and optimism will help you cope with the dangerous virus.”

It comes as Russia reports 9,412 new infections, its highest daily tally since May 23, pushing the national total to 1,194,643 cases, while Moscow, the epicenter of the Russian outbreak, reported 2,704 cases alone. 186 people had died nationwide in the last 24 hours, bringing the official death toll to 21,077, though some claim that death toll probably underestimates the true tally.

India’s Narendra Modi chimed in on Twitter to wish the Trumps a speedy recovery.

UK PM Boris Johnson, who beat COVID-19 after spending a few nights in the ICU, also expressed his sympathies.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel also made a perfunctory statement expressing hope for a speedy recovery. Meanwhile, an amusing clip from the European Council summit in Brussels showing Merkel cautioning Italian PM Giuseppe Conte is going viral.

WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus tweeted his best wishes to Trump for “a full and speedy recovery”.

With the world speculating on what treatments, if any, will be used to treat the president, fears linger as former FDA head Dr. Gottlieb noted that President Trump’s risk to the virus is “high”.

As of Friday morning in the US, global cases have reached 34,289,709 after another 318,181 cases were confirmed, according to Johns Hopkins University data…

…while the worldwide death toll spiked by 8,697, the largest daily tally since Sept. 7, bringing the death toll to 1,022,878.

Finally on the vaccine front, AstraZeneca, which is facing an expanded probe by the FDA that has caused a lengthy delay in its US trial, announced Friday that trials were continuing in Japan, and that the company is “in talks” to supply the proper data to the FDA to get it to greenlight the US trials. Most of AZ’s trials for its experimental vaccine around the world restarted shortly after an initial disruption,

Here’s more COVID news from overnight:

Malaysia reports its highest-ever number of new infections, 287, surpassing the 277 reported on June 4. The virus is believed to have widely spread in the Eastern State of Sabah, which recently held elections (Source: Nikkei).

India’s case tally climbs to 6.39 million on 81,484 new infections in the last 24 hours; deaths are just shy of the 100,000 mark, data from the health ministry shows. Fatalities from coronavirus infections rose by 1,095 in the last 24 hours to 99,773, the ministry said (Source: Nikkei).

New daily infections in Australia’s hot-spot state of Victoria have fallen to a near four-month low as it records only imported cases, raising the prospect of more domestic borders reopening. The state of Queensland, meanwhile, says it may open its border with the country’s most populous state, New South Wales, on Nov. 1, if New South Wales goes 28 days without recording a new case (Source: Nikkei).

7. OIL ISSUES

NordStream No 2 is near completion setting the stage for Trump vs Merkel

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

Nord Stream 2 Nears Completion After Clearing Another Hurdle

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Denmark cleared on Thursday the final hurdle to Nord Stream 2 potentially starting operations in Danish waters, while the U.S. continues its attempt to stop the Russia-led natural gas pipeline project.

On Thursday, the Danish Energy Agency said it had granted Nord Stream 2 AG, the company behind the project, an operations permit for the Nord Stream 2 pipelines on the Danish continental shelf, on a number of conditions.

“Commissioning can only take place when at least one of the pipelines has been tested, verified and when relevant conditions in the construction permit and the operations permit have been met,’’ the Danish agency said.

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said an interview with a German daily last week that the U.S. was building a coalition aimed at preventing the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that will substantially increase the flow of Russian gas into Europe.

“From the US point of view, Nord Stream 2 endangers Europe because it makes it dependent on Russian gas and endangers Ukraine – which in my opinion worries many Germans,” Pompeo told German daily Bild.

Germany, the endpoint of Nord Stream 2, has been looking at the economic benefits of the project, while the United States, including President Donald Trump, has been threatening sanctions on the project and even on Germany over its support for the project.

The United States, several European countries including the Baltic states and Poland, as well as the European Union (EU), have expressed concern about Russia using gas sales and its gas monopoly Gazprom as a political tool.

The United States views Nord Stream 2 as further undermining Europe’s energy security by giving Gazprom another pipeline to ship its natural gas to European markets.

In July, the United States warned companies helping Russia to complete Nord Stream 2 that they should ‘get out now’ or face consequences, as the Trump administration steps up efforts to stop the construction of the controversial Russia-led pipeline in Europe.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1718 DOWN .0026 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.14 DOWN 0.406 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2932   UP   0.0047  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.3310 UP .0024 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 24 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1718 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE 

//Hang Sang CLOSED 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1,42%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.42% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 155.22  POINTS OR 0.63%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1910.00

silver:$24.00-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.66% !!! DOWN 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.435 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 93.81 DOWN 10 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.23% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.01.%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.22%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.79 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 57 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.54% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.87% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1711  DOWN     .0033 or 33 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.35 DOWN .203 OR YEN UP 20  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2940 UP .0054 POUND UP 54  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 13 basis points to 1.3300

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (x)..GETTING DANGEROUS

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.750  (YUAN up)..GETTING REALLY DANGEROUS

TURKISH LIRA:  7.77  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.01%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 0.703 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.489 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.87 down 6  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 22.67  0.39%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 41.73 POINTS OR .33%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 0.84 POINTS 0.02%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 23.80 POINTS or 0.35%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 2.81 POINTS OR 0.01%

WTI Oil price; 37.40 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 39.75 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    78.15  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.90 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 90 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.54 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price f0r Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  37.00//

BRENT :  39.06

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.693..up 2 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.477 up 2 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1712 ( DOWN 32   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.37 UP .179 (YEN DOWN 18 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.86 UP 15 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2936 UP 51  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 7.78

the Russian rouble 78.22   DOWN 0.97 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 97 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3306 DOWN 20 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.54%

The Dow closed DOWN 134.09 POINTS OR 0.48%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 251.49 POINTS OR 2.22%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  27.20 CLOSED UP .50

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.234%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Tech Turmoils After ‘Positive’ POTUS, Jobs Jolts, And SoftBank Squeeze

An ugly week for ‘hard’ real data in the US but ‘hope’ hit a two year high as ‘soft’ data outperformed…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps exploded higher this week (pumped-up 6 of last 7 days) and best week in 2 months as Nasdaq lagged (but all were higher on the week)…

It’s not the economy or fundamentals, it’s the stimulus handouts, stupid!

Source: @AWMCheung

Because, COVID or not, Jobs or not, Fiscal stimulus or not, Biden or not, you gotta look on the bright side of life, right?

Of course today’s market action was Trump Virus fears dueling with Pelosi’s false hopes for fiscal help…(but look at that divergence between Nasdaq and Small Caps at the open)…ugly close today too

Nasdaq underperformed Russell 2000 by the most since May today as we suspect market-makers stomped on the throat of Softbank’s gamma-squeezers…

Source: Bloomberg

And we note that Nasdaq VIX spiked hardest at the open and was the most aggressively bid today…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, Nasdaq spec shorts collapsed by 40% but the index only managed marginally positive gains on the week (was Softbank trying to ignite a short-squeeze?)…

Source: Bloomberg

“Most Shorted” Stocks are up 6 days in a row (squeezed)

Source: Bloomberg

Some spurious comments from Pelosi on Airlines bailouts sparked a bid in that sector, but it faded somewhat as details were missing…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG Stocks were lower today but up on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields ended the week higher, driven by two rather notable spikes, seemingly sparked by stimulus optimism (and refused to unwind on reality)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields spiked up to 70bps and stalled again…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar erased about half of last week’s gains this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were lower this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was clubbed like a baby seal this week but Silver surged…

WTI ended with a $36 handle on the week, erasing all of the recent rebound gains…

Finally, the 1930s analog remains in place…

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

Futures Plunge, Gold Spikes After Trump Positive COVID Test

Shortly after headlines hit that President Trump and the First Lady had tested positive for COVID-19, US equity futures plunged…

Dow futures are down around 500 points but Small Caps are worst for now…

Gold spiked on the news…

Treasuries are bid with yields reversing all of the week’s rise…

Somebody wake up Steve!!

END

Mike Pence, Wife Test Negative For COVID-19

In what will undoubtedly be taken as good news by the market, Vice President Mike Pence’s office just confirmed that both the VP and the second lady, Karen Pence have tested negative for COVID-19.

Pence’s last known interaction with Trump apparently occurred on Tuesday before the debate, when the two met in the Oval Office.

Of course, there have been instances where people who have contracted the virus don’t test positive for several days, and both will likely continue to be tested in the coming days, since the incubation period is up to 14 days, with a median of about 4 to 5 days.

The White House just added that it will keep staffers for the president and the vice president separate in the coming days.

Hope Hicks, the senior Trump advisor who initially tested positive Thursday, setting off the latest West Wing outbreak scare, has reportedly been in contact with more than 20 other staffers.

As we noted earlier, Biden is expected to be tested Friday morning. We expect those results will be in soon.

With Pence “safe” – for now, at least – the MSM is turning its attention to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who met with Trump early Wednesday before meeting with Democratic leaders, including Nancy Pelosi, on Capitol Hill later in the day.

Which means there’s a chance that both the Democratic and Republican leadership might be sickened before the election.

end

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

US Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Plunges Below 8% As 661K Jobs Added

In a repeat of last month when the monthly payrolls came in as expected but the unemployment rate dropped far more than expected, moments ago the BLS report that in September a total of 661K jobs were added, below the 868K expected, and less than half the 1.489MM in August, led by a sharp 216,000 drop in government jobs (with local government education and state government education falling by 231,000 and 49,000 while hospitality, retail, construction and transportation saw some gains)…

… but offsetting these disappointment was the plunge in the unemployment rate which tumbled by a whopping 50bps from 8.4% to 7.9%, with rates for both blacks and Hispanic plunging as well.

How did the unemployment rate drop as the Household survey showed just modest growth, with the ranks of employed workers rose by just 275K to 147.563MM.

Simple: it appears that the BLS is back to its old gimmicks of inflating the number of people not in the labor force, which increased by 1.9MM, from 99.720MM to 100.599MM.

At the same time, the number of unemployed workers declined by 1MM from 13.550MM to 12.580MM.

So the biggest reason for the drop in the jobless rate was people no longer looking for work. That could be because of frustration, or retirement, or going to back to school. But it underscores unemployment isn’t falling mainly because of people getting jobs.

Then there were the usual gimmicks: the BLS said that for the March-August period, the BLS published an estimate of what the unemployment rate  would have been had misclassified workers been included. Repeating this same approach, the overall September unemployment rate would have been 0.4 percentage point higher than reported.

In other words, the true unemployment rate is likely 8.4%, unchanged from last month.

Going back to the Establishment Survey, we find that the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 27,000, from +1,734,000 to +1,761,000, and the change for August was revised up by 118,000, from +1,371,000 to +1,489,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined was 145,000 more than previously reported.

The one series tracked by all, the number of “temporarily” unemployed surprised as it dropped by more than 1.5 million to just 4.6 million, from 6.2 million the month before. As usual, debate over what defines “temporary” unemployment remains in the foreground.

This was offset by the number of people in the U.S. seeing permanent job losses, which rose by 340K to 3.756 million, the highest level since 2013, and points to the ongoing business closures, bankruptcies, and investment cuts across the country.

Meanwhile, the number of workers unemployed for more than 15 weeks posted an unexpected reversal, declining by 800K to 7.323MM.

The average hourly earnings also printed generally in line, rising by 4.7% in September, up from the 4.6% revised in August, but below the 4.8% expected.

The labor force participation rate dropped modestly, from 61.9 to 61.4 as the Civilian Labor Force dropped by nearly 700,000 to 160.1 million in September while the population rose by just 200K to 260.742MM.

Why the decline in the participation rate? According to Bloomberg it ticked down for men aged 20+, but fell even more for wome, some -0.8%. With the start of the academic year and schools closed and running zoom sessions from home, many are likely opting out of the labor market.

Despite the overall improvement, let’s not forget that In September, nonfarm employment was below its February level by more than 10.7 or 7% million. Looking at the sector breakdown, job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in retail trade, in health care and social assistance, and in professional and business services. Employment declined in government, mainly in state and local government education.

Some more details:

  • Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 318,000 in September, with almost two-thirds of the gain occurring in food services and drinking places (+200,000).  Amusements, gambling, and recreation (+69,000) and  accommodation (+51,000) also added jobs in September.
  • Retail trade added 142,000 jobs over the month, with gains widespread in the industry. Clothing and clothing accessories stores (+40,000) accounted for about one-fourth of the over-the-month change in retail trade. Notable employment increases also occurred in general merchandise stores (+20,000), motor vehicle and parts dealers (+16,000), and health and personal care stores (+16,000).
  • Employment in health care and social assistance rose by 108,000 in September but is down by 1.0 million since February. Health care added 53,000 jobs in September, with continued growth in offices of physicians (+18,000), home health care services (+16,000), and offices of other health practitioners (+14,000). Social assistance added 55,000 jobs, mostly in individual and family services (+32,000) and in child day care services (+18,000).
  • Professional and business services added 89,000 jobs in September. Employment increased in services to buildings and dwellings (+22,000), architectural and engineering services (+13,000), and computer systems design and related services (+12,000).
  • Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 74,000 in September. Within the industry, job gains continued in warehousing and storage (+32,000), transit and ground passenger transportation (+21,000), and couriers and messengers (+10,000).
  • Manufacturing added 66,000 jobs over the month. Durable goods accounted for about two- thirds of the gain, led by motor vehicles and parts (+14,000) and machinery (+14,000).
  • Financial activities added 37,000 jobs in September. Job growth occurred in real estate and rental and leasing (+20,000) and in finance and insurance (+16,000). Employment in financial activities is 162,000 below the level in February.
  • In September, the other services industry added 36,000 jobs, largely in membership associations and organizations (+31,000). Employment in other services is 495,000 lower than in February.
  • Employment in information grew by 27,000 in September but is down by 276,000 since February. Motion picture and sound recording industries accounted for most of the September gain (+23,000).
  • Construction employment increased by 26,000 in September, with growth in residential specialty trade contractors (+16,000) and construction of buildings (+12,000).
  • In September, wholesale trade added 19,000 jobs, with gains in both the durable and nondurable goods components (+13,000 and +8,000, respectively).
  • Government employment declined by 216,000 in September. Employment in local government education and state government education fell by 231,000 and 49,000, respectively. A decrease of 34,000 in federal government was driven by a decline in the number of temporary Census 2020 workers. Partially offsetting these declines, employment in local government, excluding education, rose by 96,000.
  • Employment in private education decreased by 69,000 in September, after a gain of similar magnitude in August.
  • Employment changed little in mining in September (+1,000). Employment in the industry is down by 133,000 since a recent peak in January 2019; about three-fourths of this decline has occurred since February of this year.

As noted above, local government education jobs contracted by 231,000. This was the biggest decline since the early days of the pandemic in April and May.

Summarizing the data, Bloomberg economics said that “September private payrolls were in-line with expectations, but the segment appears to be taking a turn for the worse going into the fourth quarter amid impending airline industry layoffs and continued gridlock in Washington, as well as announcements of tens of thousands of job cuts across both service and goods-producing sectors.”

Overall, it is starting to emerge that any hope of a V-shaped recovery led by the labor market is growing dim. The next administration – whether it’s headed by Joe Biden or Trump – will have to reckon with an economy and jobs market in rough shape.

ii)Market data/USA

US Factory Orders Disappoint In August

US Factories disappointed in August with orders rising only 0.7% MoM (well down from the +6.5% MoM jump in July)…

Source: Bloomberg

This leaves YoY orders still down 5.4% as The “V” appears to be stalling…

Source: Bloomberg

Fiscal stimulus stat! 

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

President Trump Has COVID-19: Here Is What Happens Next

Update (0750ET): VP Mike Pence and the Second Lady, Karen Pence, have both tested negative for the virus, though they will both need to be tested again repeatedly in the coming days.

* * *

Update (0730ET): Joe Biden will be tested for COVID-19 Friday morning, according to one of his aides.

  • BIDEN IS EXPECTED TO GET COVID TEST THIS MORNING, AIDE SAYS

Meanwhile, Trump’s illness prompted the White House to cancel political events on Friday, including a rally planned outside Orlando, Florida. Upcoming campaign and fundraising events including visits to battlegrounds like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada are expected to be scrapped as Trump moves to quarantine until he starts testing negative.

Before we move on to the next major update, let’s take a second and put on our tinfoil hats as the conspiracy theories come pouring in.

In terms of treatment, President Trump has said he’s taken hyrdoxychloroquine in the past. He could take that, along with Gilead’s remdesivir, or the steroid dexamethasone.

The revised White House schedule has the president only taking a call with a group of senior citizens, with everything else having been cleared.

* * *

President Trump has just become the latest in a growing list of world leaders to havae contracted SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Trump broke the news that he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive via Twitter early Friday morning hours after Bloomberg reported that Hope Hicks, one of the president’s closest aides, had tested positive, and was symptomatic.

Trump will begin a quarantine process that will see him and the First Lady remaining in the White House, where President Trump will continue to handle his presidential duties, much in the same way that Canada’s Justin Trudeau did after he and his wife tested positive. A note from Trump’s personal physician, Dr. Sean Conley, was also released.

As the MSM fixates on whether Trump knowingly violated CDC guidelines when he traveled to New Jersey Thursday morning to meet with a group of donors…

…President Trump’s tweet announcing the news has already become his most shared and most liked Tweet ever.

Bloomberg has published this clip show Hicks and a handful of other senior Trump aides board Marine One with the president earlier this week.

All of the donors and senior White House staff who have been in contact with Trump, the First Lady, and Hope Hicks will now be contacted and tested as quickly as possible. Former FDA head Dr. Scott Gottlieb said he believes the administration will perform serial tests on the president, while bringing in the most sensitive testing equipment possible to monitor the donors and Trump’s staff.

VP Mike Pence will almost certainly need to quarantine given his close contact with Trump. That could create serious problems for the upcoming VP debate, while Trump’s quarantine period would also overlap with the second presidential debate vs. Joe Biden. Doctors are saying that Joe Biden should also get tested, which he almost certainly will be.

As a reminder.

Speaking of the market reaction, PredictIt told Bloomberg that the news would lead to unprecedented action in online political betting markets, as pundits weigh whether Trump being infected improves his chances of victory, or not.

The news that US President Donald Trump has tested positive for Covid-19 just a month before the presidential election will ripple across political prediction markets throughout Friday and into the weekend as forecasters grapple with the implications, according to PredictIt. “I have no doubt that today will be one of the biggest trading days in political prediction market history,” Will Jennings, a PredictIt spokesperson, said via email.

PredictIt said on Twitter that there’s an 80%-85% chance that Friday will be the biggest day it’s ever seen. The most interesting reaction to the news on PredictIt’s platform was the market for who will carry Ohio, which flipped to Joe Biden.

A chart from Bloomberg showed that perceived odds of a Biden victory spiked on the news.

At least one site, online gambling site Betfair, suspended betting on the outcome of the US election after Trump’s announcement, but beforehand, its bettors were heavily favoring Joe Biden.

As US futures followed European stocks lower, Treasuries rallied Friday morning. Here’s RaboBank with more on that.

There are obviously an extreme range of possible scenarios regarding U.S. President Donald Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, and such uncertainties explain why U.S. stocks are down while the dollar and Treasuries are up, according to Rabobank. On one hand, Trump’s illness could be fatal and at an extreme, he might have passed it to Joe Biden; this is very unlikely, but not a zero possibility, says Michael Every, head of Asia financial markets research in Hong Kong at the bank On the other hand, Trump might recover, backed by the best White House doctors, and use the next two weeks’ media attention to focus on how the coronavirus is something that can be overcome. He could also gain a sym

Moving beyond the market implications, millions of Americans are now wondering: If Trump gets seriously ill – which is possible, even likely, given his age – what happens next. Well, as Brookings Institute scholar John Hudak explains, if Trump is incapacitated, or feels he soon might become incapacitated, the 25th Amendment would then come into play. It has two relevant sections: Section 3, and Section 4.

Already, Mike Pence, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Grassley – the first three individuals in the line of presidential succession – are likely being given additional protection. If Trump falls seriously ill, he could elect to temporarily deputize Pence to serve as commander-in-chief. If the president is somehow incapacitated before that can happen, Pence and the members of Trump’s cabinet have another option: they could vote to initiate Section 4 of the 25th Amendment – remember, all the MSM’s speculation about Trump’s mental state was intended to strengthen the case for a Section 4 “coup”, as Steve Bannon once called it. After a successful vote, Congress would be notified, and Pence would take the reins.

Here’s Hudak, who explains that, while rare, there is precedent for this situation (courtesy of Brookings.edu):

A positive COVID-19 test for the president, in itself, is not a cause for emergency action. Millions of people around the world have contracted the disease and have been asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. The president would likely be able to continue his everyday activities and manage the office either undisturbed or with mild challenges. A presidential diagnosis would create some challenges for those around him. The need for 24-hour Secret Service protection could put agents at risk for contracting it. But given modern technology, the president could quarantine and have remote or sufficiently distanced contact from most, if not all, aides, including the individual(s) who would be involved in the presidential daily brief.

There would need to be other precautions taken, even if the president were to be asymptomatic. First, those in the line of succession would need to be protected. It would be important to keep Vice President Pence, Speaker Pelosi, Senator Grassley (President Pro Tempore), and members of the cabinet isolated from the president. It would be especially important to ensure that the vice president have limited contact with individuals generally to reduce his chances of contracting the virus as well.

Second, it would be important for the president to continue to communicate with the American public, especially if he is mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic. Seeing the president on camera can restore faith in his wellness, calm nervous Americans, stabilize stock markets (that would surely see a dip in the event of a positive test), and project to the world that the president remains well enough to execute the office.

We’ve experienced something like this before. In 1919, President Woodrow Wilson suffered a serious stroke, and his wife kept even his closest advisers from seeing the president, likely out of fear that they would find him incapacitated and thus throwing the nation into a serious leadership crisis. Such a scenario (hiding the president’s condition) would not be possible today, but an extended absence of a president—especially during a pandemic—would raise serious questions and become a destabilizing force in politics, the economy, and the public.

Contingencies for a seriously ill president

Although the president has access to some of the best and most immediate health care in the world, his age and obesity put him into higher risk categories for more serious symptoms for COVID-19. Patient experiences range dramatically, but some of the most serious courses of treatment include use of a ventilator. When a patient is put on a ventilator, the patient is non-verbal because of the insertion of the tube through the vocal cords and they are given some level of sedation, ranging from minimal to deep sedation. During this time, a patient’s cognitive abilities would at least be affected or completely absent. More intensive sedation therapies, including drug-induced paralysis, can be used in the treatment of severe COVID-19 complications.

In an unfortunate scenario in which the president were to contract COVID-19 and need therapies such as a ventilator and/or the use of other therapies that would impair his cognitive abilities and/or abilities to communicate, there are a few procedures in place to deal with that situation. If the president is given notice that he is to be administered therapies that will impair his ability to perform the duties of office—for functional reasons, cognitive reasons, or both—under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the Constitution, the president can transmit to the House and Senate “his written declaration that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”

The invocation of Section 3 of the 25th Amendment has happened multiple times. President Reagan did so in 1985 and President George W. Bush did so twice in 2002 and 2007. Each time was for medical procedures in which anesthesia or heavy sedation was used. President Clinton likely should have invoked Section 3 during a 1997 knee surgery, but opted not to, claiming he was never put under general anesthesia. When Section 3 is invoked, the vice president becomes “acting president” until the president notifies the House and Senate that he is able to perform his duties once again.

In the event that the president were sick, his condition declined rapidly, and he was unable to invoke Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, Section 4 provides a solution to such a crisis. Under Section 4, the vice president and a majority of the cabinet can send notice to the House and Senate “that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” And as in the case of invoking Section 3, the vice president will serve as acting president. Once a president recovers, he can transmit that to the House and Senate, and he will re-take the powers unless the vice president and a majority of the cabinet tell Congress that the president remains incapacitated—at which point Congress would vote on incapacity.

The latter is the intended use of Section 4 of the 25th Amendment. While some of the president’s opponents have fantastically called for the vice president and cabinet to declare the president incapacitated based on disagreements with his behaviors, amateur diagnoses of non-specific medical issues, or dissatisfaction with his temperament, that should not diminish the importance of the provisions of Section 4. There can be real scenarios in which the president’s medical condition suddenly creates an incapacity, and in that situation, the country will have an individual who is able to execute the full powers of the office of president—in that case, Acting President Mike Pence. While presidential incapacity would be a serious national situation, the government would be able to function in a largely uninterrupted way until the president is recovered.

* * *

Moving on to the next critical issue: the Supreme Court. Amy Coney Barrett, Trump’s nominee, stood next to the president on Saturday when he unveiled her nomination during a briefing in the Rose Garden. Before the press conference, which was held outside, although neither Barrett nor Trump wore masks, the federal judge and her family spent “hours” at the White House, while her children entertained themselves in the Roosevelt Room. Barrett will likely need to quarantine, and if she, too, is sickened, it could delay the confirmation process, possibly until after election day.

CNBC’s Eamon Javers speculated that President Trump may have held his final rally of the campaign, although there would still be two weeks or so left in the campaign once the 2-week quarantine period is over.

With markets in turmoil Friday morning ahead of the last jobs report before the election, Fundstrat’s Thomas Block appeared on CNBC Friday morning to opine that Trump’s COVID-19 status could change the political arithmetic for the stimulus bill, opening a new possibility that a deal might get done.

“I think it really hits home that this is real, this is not going away…and that even the president of the United States…that even he and his wife could get it…it really brings home that…this is a wake up call. This isn’t going away…there’s a bill ready to go and they’re so close,” Block said.

Others said that Trump being sickened would undermine the administration’s anti-mail-in-ballot push, which could make it more likely that the outcome of the vote is known on election day, or shortly thereafter.

Dr. Atlas is some smart cookie.  He is pounding the table that we  should not lockdown our economy (because economically it is disastrous) or close classrooms to children because children rarely are infected. Dr Atlas is the person to whom we must follow closely

Dr  Victor Davis Hanson)

Hoover Institute…

The Unscientific Attack On The Science Of Dr. Scott Atlas

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via PJMedia.ocm,

The news media until recently had rarely criticized the medical advice of experts – especially those who worked for federal bureaucracies, international organizations or elite universities.

Yet the much-praised Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, has demonstrably weakened the effort to fight COVID-19.

During the critical initial weeks of the virus’s spread, Tedros parroted Chinese propaganda. He falsely assured a complacent world that the virus was likely not transmissible between humans and did not warrant travel bans. That Tedros was the first WHO director not to have a medical degree was seldom cited by the media.

Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel is known to the public for his past advocacy of the Obama administration’s Affordable Care Act. Although he now advises 77-year-old presidential candidate Joe Biden, Emanuel once wrote an article for The Atlantic titled “Why I hope to die at 75,” contending that that life after age 75 is, and should be, mostly over — now an eerie idea in a time of a pandemic that targets the elderly.

Emanuel has often weighed in on the COVID-19 pandemic, sometimes in overly pessimistic fashion by suggesting that some acquired collective immunity and a viable vaccine were not likely to come soon.

Yet Emanuel also has been largely exempt from media criticism. No reporters have questioned his epidemiological expertise despite his background as an oncologist specializing in breast cancer.

The esteemed Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has given conflicting advice on the use of masks, quarantining and the methods of viral transmission.

Yet such inconsistency is either ignored or chalked up by the media to the usual learning curve of dealing with a new epidemic.

So why — other than politics — is there now a concerted media attack on Dr. Scott Atlas, an adviser to the Trump administration on COVID-19 policy?

Atlas has had a distinguished career as one of world’s top neuroradiologists. He has become a national expert on public health policy, especially in the cost-benefit analysis of government programs.

After COVID-19 arrived in the U.S., Atlas consistently warned that government must follow science, not politics, in doing the least amount of harm to its people. He has reminded us that those under 65 rarely die from COVID-19, and that those infected who are younger than 20 usually do not show any serious symptoms.

Accordingly, Atlas has urged the states to focus more resources on the most vulnerable — those over 65, who account for the vast majority of COVID-19 deaths — and allow younger Americans to re-enter schools and the workforce with appropriate caution.

Atlas has also warned that the available test data on COVID-19’s infectiousness, spread and morbidity must be handled with care, given that those who feel sick are more likely to get tested. He argues that those with some natural protection from the virus, either through antibodies from an asymptotic past infection or through T-cells, may be a far larger group than previously thought.

But most importantly, Atlas has warned that government must be careful not to endanger Americans with draconian lockdowns that curtail needed medical examinations, procedures and treatments.

Just as dangerous as the disease may be quarantine-related spikes in mental illness, substance abuse, child and spousal abuse, and depression from lost livelihoods. Children may be suffering irreparable harm from being locked down and kept out of school.

Atlas has shown that these policy choices, unfortunately, entail bad options and even worse ones, rather than good choices and even better alternatives. He has not played down the dangers of COVID-19 but rather has reminded us to look at scientific data that often belies media sensationalism.

Many in the media, some of his former colleagues at Stanford Medical School and some other Stanford faculty members have claimed that Atlas — a colleague of mine at the Hoover Institution — has acted unprofessionally. They allege that he has downplayed the lethality of the virus, implying that he is aiding the administration’s efforts to ease out of the quarantine.

In fact, rarely reported is that many members of the Stanford community are honored by its medical school receiving global acclaim for its diversity of expert scientific opinion on the virus.

Nobel Prize-winning biophysicist Michael Levitt of Stanford and several stellar Stanford epidemiologists have been praised worldwide for their careful critiques of often media-generated misconceptions – especially on the overreliance on COVID-19 positive test data to calibrate viral prevalence and morbidly.

end
Wow! New York Times now admits that the WHO’s decision not the close borders at the start of the pandemic was political in nature
(New York Times/Zerohedge/Watson)

NYTimes Admits WHO’s Decision Not To Close Borders At Start Of Pandemic Was Based On “Politics”, Not Science

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

The New York Times has published an article admitting what we told you 8 months ago – that the World  Health Organization’s directive at the start of the coronavirus pandemic that countries shouldn’t close their borders was a decision based on “politics,” not science.

“The World Health Organization has long encouraged mass tourism and said closing borders wouldn’t stop the spread of Covid-19. A New York Times investigation found this policy was never based on science, but instead on politics and economics,” tweeted the NY Times with a link to an article detailing the issue.

As we reported back on January 31, the WHO repeatedly urged countries not to impose border controls, in part to avoid the “stigmatization” of Chinese people.

In other words, not being seen to be racist and preventing people’s feelings from being hurt was more important than stopping the spread of the pandemic.

Then in April, we documented how the WHO blocked doctors from urging countries to impose border controls to stop the spread of coronavirus.

“So the official meeting records say there was a divergence of views but they won’t actually go into detail about who was trying to block it. But there were doctors there who wanted to issue travel bans and the World Health Organization blocked it,” reported Sky News Australia.

The next month, scientists in Brazil also confirmed that the countries most affected by the coronavirus spread were the ones who continued to allow unrestricted travel across their borders.

A Mount Sinai study found that New York City’s record-high coronavirus cases and deaths were “predominantly” due to travel from Europe, meaning that many more lives could have been saved if borders had been closed down earlier.

Countries such as Russia that were pro-active in closing down their borders early recorded significantly fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths than other countries of a similar population size.

Despite its 144 million population, Russia recorded under 21,000 coronavirus deaths, compared to the UK, which has a population of 65 million yet recorded more than double that number of COVID deaths.

*  *  *

In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.

END
HOW COULD THE DEMOCRATS DO THIS…IT IS VERY VERY OFFENSIVE!!
Watson//SummitNews

Watch: Democratic Ad Compares 2020 America To Nazi Germany

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

The Jewish Democratic Council of America is facing backlash after it produced a campaign ad that compared America under President Trump to Nazi Germany under Adolf Hitler.

The video, titled “Hate doesn’t stop itself, it must be stopped,” features a split screen with footage of Trump rallies, and by its side footage of nazi rallies from the 1930s.

For good measure, the Democrats threw in images of white supremacists from Charlottesville in 2017, as well as images from the 2018 Pittsburgh synagogue attack.

Watch:

“History shows us what happens when leaders use hatred and nationalism to divide their people,” the narrator on the video states.

“As antisemitism and white nationalism rise to dangerous levels in America, we are all less secure. It’s time to show that we’ve learned from the darkest moments in history. Hate doesn’t stop itself. It must be stopped. Vote — our future depends on it,” the narration continues.

The ad is being targeted at Jewish voters in swing states such as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The video is so crude that even the ADL, which routinely labels Trump a white supremacist, has denounced it as “deeply offensive”:

“This has no place in the presidential race and is deeply offensive to the memories of 6M+ Jews systematically exterminated during the Shoah,” ADL head Jonathan Greenblatt tweeted.

“We urge leaders & their surrogates to refrain from invoking the #Holocaust in the context of the current election. It is not the same. Stay focused on the issues,” Greenblatt added.

The American Jewish Committee and Simon Wiesenthal Center have also called for the video to be removed.

JDCA’s executive director, Halie Soifer, defended the ad, stating “We’re not calling Donald Trump a Nazi.”

“We are warning against the ominous parallel of the rise of Nazism and the use of hatred for political purposes and the numerous signs that Donald Trump is doing the same,” Soifer added.

The Trump campaign responded to the ad with the following statement:

President Trump is the greatest ally the State of Israel has ever had in the White House. As Democrats increase their false attacks against the President, Jewish Americans can see the truth for themselves through the President’s actions to fight against anti-Semitism, sign the historic Abraham Accords doing what no other President was able to do and bring peace to the Middle East, recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and tear up the disastrous Iran nuclear deal from the Obama-Biden administration.

The development comes in the wake of repeated comparisons of Trump’s America to Nazi Germany by Democrats.

Last weekend, Joe Biden directly compared Trump to the chief Nazi propagandist Joseph Goebbels:

Meanwhile, Representative Ilhan Omar (D-MN) said Thursday that she resents anyone who claims Trump is not a racist, saying that the US has a “fascist in the White House.”

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Just what planet is this guy on? He is paving the way to study slavery reparations?

(zerohedge)

California Gov. Newsom Signs Bill Paving Way To Study Slavery Reparations

As the radical left prepares for a Biden presidency and possible takeover of the U.S. House and Senate by laying the groundwork for their Marxist socio-economic policies at the state level, California has signed a new bill consider paying reparations to descendants of slavery.

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed Assembly Bill 3121 into law on Wednesday. The bill allows the state government to form a nine-member task force to develop a detailed plan for reparations and who would be eligible to receive them.

“This is not just about California, this is about making an impact, and a dent, across the rest of the country,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said moments after signing the bill.

“California’s rich diversity is our greatest asset, and we won’t turn away from this moment to make right the discrimination and disadvantages that Black Californians and people of color still face,” Newsom said.

The recommendations of the task force are non-binding and would be submitted in a report to the state legislature one year after the first meeting.

Readers may recall reparations became a popular subject after the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in late May.

In June, Robert Johnson, founder of Black Entertainment Television (BET), called for trillions of dollars in reparations for slavery. He said the government should pay out $14 trillion in reparations, for “damages that are owed.”

The Brookings Institution suggested in their April 2020 report that reparations could take the form of student loan forgiveness, free college education, and down payment grants for homeowners.

Direct transfer payments under the guise of reparations appear to be not about compensating those who are descendants of slavery but instead increasing funding for social programs. To make it more clear, reparations will dramatically expand the “welfare state.”

California’s new law doesn’t say reparations must be cash payments, as other options for payouts could include forgiving student loans, job training, and or payment for public works projects.

Assemblywoman Shirley Weber, a Democrat from San Diego who authored the bill, said California “has come to terms with many of these issues, but it has yet to come to terms with its role in slavery.”

The task force’s capabilities, under the new law (read the full text of 3121 here): 

  • Hold hearings and sit and act at any time and location in California.
  • Request the attendance and testimony of witnesses.
  • Request the production of books, records, correspondence, memoranda, papers, and documents.
  • Seek an order from a Superior Court compelling testimony or compliance with a subpoena.
  • Any subcommittee or member of the Task Force may, if authorized by the Task Force, take any action that the Task Force is authorized to take pursuant to this section.

Do we assume California needs no further federal bailout dollars if it’s so willingly investigating such a massive program of redistribution?

The nine-member task force created to study exactly how African-Americans should be compensated has until the middle of 2023 to present its findings and potential solutions to the governor.

It’s no wonder people are fleeing the state at record rates.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Pelosi Skeptical of Getting Stimulus Deal before Election – BBG

American and United to furlough 32,000 workers as time runs out for federal aid https://t.co/tFBf57Hth9

@drdavidsamadi: “Our results indicate that public immunity to COVID-19 is significantly higher than antibody tests have suggested,” says Professor Ljunggren at the Center for Infectious Medicine, Karolinska Institutet [Sweden]. “If this is the case, it is very good news from a public health perspective.”

The New York Times Publishes a Defense of the Hong Kong Crackdown

The piece is entitled “Hong Kong Is China, Like It or Not.” (She seems to like it.)  Ip, a longtime apologist for Chinese Communist Party control over the city, led the charge on anti-subversion legislation that spurred mass protests in 2003… It’s a PR coup for the dictatorship that’s snuffed out the remaining elements of democratic governance in the city…

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-new-york-times-publishes-a-defense-of-the-hong-kong-crackdown/

 

The Fed balance sheet shrunk $37.032B on a $42.093B decline in MBS.  Currency swaps fell $8.055B.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm

 

Today – The September Employment Report will impact early trading.  The past few sessions, industrial commodities have exhibited concern over the economy.  A bad employment report could be bad news for stocks.  After the employment report adjustment, traders will play for the standard Friday rally and the routine Team Trump Friday verbal intervention.  However, just like on Thursday, Covid stimulus plan headlines could appear at any moment and change the course of mighty rivers.  Will the usual Friday afternoon rally appear?  Will Pelosi & Mnuchin cut a deal?

ESZs are -7.25 at 21:10 ET because the House passed, on a party-line vote, a $2.2T stimulus bill that reduced the odds of an agreement between Pelosi and Mnuchin/the Senate.

Expected economic data: NFP 875k (Whisper # 1.005m), Mfg 35k, Rate 8.2%, Wages 0.2%, Workweek 34.6, Labor Force Participation Rate 62%; UM Sentiment 79; Aug Factory Orders 0.9% m/m, Ex-Trans 1.1%; Aug Durable Goods 0.4% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.4%; Nondef Ex-Air 1.7%; Philly Fed Prez Harker 9:00 ET, Minny Fed Prez Kashkari 13:00 ET

CIA Director Gina Haspel Is Blocking Declassification of Remaining Russigate Documents

Haspel was previously the London CIA station chief under former CIA director John Brennan during the 2016 election. “Recall it was London where Christopher Steele was doing all this work,” Davis said, noting Haspel was the “main link” between Washington and London at the time. Haspel was hand-picked by former CIA director John Brennan to run the CIA’s operations in London, where she served as the spy agency’s bureau chief from 2014 through early 2017…“So many of the people blocking these documents are likely implicated by them. You have these career bureaucrats whose careers may be destroyed by the facts within them,” he said…

https://thefederalist.com/2020/09/30/davis-cia-director-gina-haspel-is-blocking-declassification-of-remaining-russigate-documents/

After Biden interrupted Trump first in the debate, Trump repeatedly did the same thing to Biden.  Team Trump watched every Biden debate and learned that he constantly interrupted his opponents.

@EddieZipperer: In the 2012 VP debate, Biden interrupted Paul Ryan 82 times, made faces the entire time, and dropped a steady stream of insults on RyanThe media LOVED it. In 2020, he came out and tried to use the same tactic on Trump.  https://twitter.com/EddieZipperer/status/1311620496224591872

Gallup: Majority of Americans Predict Trump Will Win Reelection

Regardless of whom they personally support, 56% of Americans expect Trump to prevail over Biden in the November election, while 40% think Biden will win [A measure of Trump’s hidden voters]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321347/trump-pre-debate-job-approval-highest-may.aspx

Joe Biden called yet another lid on Thursday.

NBC: Trump is winning the voter registration battle against Biden in key states

In Florida, Republicans added a net 195,652 registered voters between this March’s presidential primary and the end of August, while Democrats added 98,362 and other voters increased 69,848…in heavily blue Miami-Dade County, where Clinton beat Trump by 29 points in 2016, Republicans added a net 22,986 additional voter registrations between March and the end of August, compared to 11,142 for Democrats.

    In Pennsylvania, Republicans added a net 135,619 voters between this June’s primary and the final week of September, while Democrats added 57,985 and other voters increased 49,995…

    In North Carolina, Republicans added a net 83,785 voters between this March’s presidential primary and the final week of September, while Democrats added 38,137 and other voters jumped 100,256…

    Privately, several Democratic strategists are deeply disturbed by their party’s failure to keep pace with its registration successes in 2016 and fault the Biden campaign’s lack of in-person outreach for the lag…

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-winning-voter-registration-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674

@LarrySchweikart: Some of you asked about the LA Times/Dornsife poll, which predicted a Trump win in 2016, has lowered the number of rural participants for their 2020 poll “to correct our weighing procedures”.  In other words, to make it look worse for Trump.

Pelosi Doesn’t Recommend More Presidential Debates, Says ‘One and Done’ – BBG

[Crystal clear indication of Dems’ perception of how the debate went]

https://twitter.com/BloombergTV/status/1311725636512288769

More proof of how the debate went and the real state of the election: after months of disavowing door-to-door canvassing and slamming Trump for doing it, Biden will now begin the practice.

Biden poised to launch in-person canvassing in key states

Biden this weekend will dispatch several hundred newly trained volunteers to engage voters across Nevada, Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania… [Obvious trouble spots for Joe]

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-joe-biden-donald-trump-elections-1e4e392fff3fed0a7925ef9cd9ca33e1

The Presidential Debate Commission Tried, and Failed, to Ambush Trump

The debate was supposed to be an orchestrated ambush of Trump, with Wallace playing a key role helping Biden land punches and avoid getting flustered by Trump.  But it didn’t work out that way. Wallace’s obvious bias against Trump was off-putting, while Biden, despite Wallace’s help, couldn’t land any punches or fend off Trump’s attacks…

    The commission, which is run by a board of old liberals whose average age is over 70, was more than happy to comply. On Wednesday, it issued a statement saying it will change the rules for the next two debates… In other words, the problem Tuesday night wasn’t too much biased moderating, it was too little. The candidates were too free to simply talk as they pleased, and we can’t have that…

    Part of the calculus behind all this is to force Trump to pull out of the upcoming debates. That would avoid another effective Biden loss while preventing him from appearing weak. Short of that, the idea is to limit Trump’s ability to shape the conversation or alter the overall narrative,

https://t.co/TswX8x5vx3

@no_silenced: Steve Scully is the next debate Moderator…. He interned for Joe Biden….Just so everyone knows the facts…..

Moderator for 2nd Trump-Biden Debate Worked as Intern for Biden, Staff Assistant for Ted Kennedy  https://www.dailywire.com/news/moderator-for-2nd-trump-biden-debate-worked-as-intern-for-biden-staff-assistant-for-ted-kennedy

Moderator for 2nd Debate: @SteveScully: No, Not Trump, Not Ever   4:38 PM · Mar 18, 2016

 

@realDonaldTrump: Why would I allow the Debate Commission to change the rules for the second and third Debates when I easily won last time?

@Peoples_Pundit: Miller, Trump Campaign: “We do not want any changes from what has been agreed to before the first debate.”  “It didn’t turn out the way they wanted. That’s why they want changes.”

Trump Campaign Says Debate Commission Has Ties to Democrats – BBG

@IvanPentchoukov: On a 3:30 pm call today, the Trump campaign accused The Commission on Presidential Debates of bias, calling its leadership “permanent swamp monsters.” Campaign chair listed several commission leaders’ history of anti-Trump comments and donations to Democrats.

@Peoples_Pundit: Negotiator for Trump confirms Biden campaign requested a mute button for the second debate, but it did not come from the commission and was denied. Biden campaign also seeking to reduce open discussion segment to “almost nothing” to “control” the forum. They want no changes.

@abigailmarone: The Biden campaign is stacking their transition team with Big Tech folks. First Twitter employees and now Facebook. It’s almost… like… the people running these websites have a political agenda…

The MSM keeps asking Trump to disavow white supremacy, even though Trump has done so numerous times over the past 4-5 years, because Biden is losing minority voters.  Here is a 2:51 clip of Trump’s past white supremacy denunciations: https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1311707571737309184

@TheFirstonTV: The media are so desperate to paint @realDonaldTrump as a “white supremacist,” it seems they are just going to ask the same question every day until the election. @PressSec handled these biased, agenda-driven “reporters” like a champ.  https://twitter.com/TheFirstonTV/status/1311691179130580992

Fox’s John Roberts had a meltdown on national TV because people bashed him for asking WH Press Secretary McEnany if Trump disavows white supremacy.  Trump has clearly proven that the media can dish it out 24/7 but they can’t take a modicum of rebuke because they have extremely thin skin.

John Robert’s meltdown dominated Twitter: https://twitter.com/thebradfordfile/status/1311711447957864454

@seanmdav: After the John Roberts temper tantrum in the WH press briefing, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany has to remind Roberts that his own wife reported that Trump explicitly denounced white supremacy (again, for something like the 50th time). Wow. https://t.co/23fQZ61727

@PressSec: @johnrobertsFox: I would refer you to your wife’s reporting from 21 hours ago… accurate reporting I cited in the White House Press Briefing: [ABC’s] @KyraPhillips: Just now: Donald Trump tells me he DENOUNCES white supremacists  https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1311707130160873472

@ABC: @KyraPhillips: “What about white supremacists, do you denounce them?” “Any form of any of that, you have to denounce,” Pres. Trump says after failing to categorically and clearly condemn them when given the change during the first presidential debatehttps://abcn.ws/3cISYe9

Fox News’ John Roberts irate over lack of white supremacist denouncement https://t.co/MIUdXJ2gmc

The Babylon Bee: Media Slams Trump for Not Condemning White Supremacy in Last 12 Seconds https://t.co/m0Q69zSaoy

@TrumpWarRoom: Joe Biden delivered a eulogy for former KKK “Exalted Cyclops” leader Robert Byrd.  Biden called the segregationist a “mentor,” a “guide,” and a “friend.”  Byrd once recruited and led a KKK chapter with 150 members.  https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1311672729381359617

When you think the MSM couldn’t be more contemptible, abjectly biased or bigger hypocrites, they drain the pool a bit more.

CBS: After LeBron James’ recruiting efforts, more than 10,000 volunteers have signed up to become poll workers   https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lebron-james-recruits-10000-poll-workers-election/

CBS: Trump encourages supporters to independently monitor polling places — a federal crime

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-trump-encourages-supporters-to-monitor-polling-places-a-federal-crime/

U.S. officials feared Hunter Biden firm in Ukraine paid second bribe, memos show

Twenty-two days before President Obama left office, the U.S. ambassador to Kiev wrote top officials in Washington that she feared Burisma Holdings had made a second bribe to Ukrainian officials around the time a corruption probe against Hunter Biden’s natural gas employer was closed before Donald Trump took office…   https://t.co/QwoCG47zeL

Biden botches the Constitution again: Americans get ‘to choose who they want on Supreme Court’

Joe Biden says he “taught constitutional law for over 20 years.”…

https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/biden-botches-constitution-again-americans-get-choose-who-they-want-supreme

 

The Babylon Bee: Biden: ‘You Have To Elect Me to Find Out What My Policy Positions Are’

After debate moderator Chris Wallace tried to set a diabolical trap for Biden by asking him for his policy positions, Biden shrewdly saw the trap coming a mile away and refused to answer the question… Biden went on to explain that his policies are a “special, secret surprise” and are so special and secret, even he himself doesn’t know them yet… In a closed-door fundraising dinner, Kamala Harris assured supporters that they do in fact have policy positions that can be found on BLM’s website or in a book called Das Kapital by a fellow named Karl.  https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-you-have-to-elect-me-to-find-out-what-my-policy-positions-are/

Well that is all for today

I will see you MONDAY night.

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