GOLD:$1914.80 UP $12.00 The quote is London spot price
Silver:$24.41 UP 53 CENTS London spot price ( cash market)
your data…
Closing access prices: London spot
i)Gold : $1913.40 LONDON SPOT 4:30 pm
ii)SILVER: $24.36//LONDON SPOT 4:30 pm
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 308.73 OR 1.32% /The Nikkei closed UP 282.24 POINTS OR 1.23%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 2.54%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 38.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and 40.71 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7300 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19 : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
total withdrawals; 1606.600 oz
We had 0 kilobar transactions +
ADJUSTMENTS: 1 //
The front month of OCT registered a total of 14,306 contracts for a LOSS of 3957 contracts. We had 4015 notices filed on Friday so we gained 58 contracts or 5800 additional oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October. In gold we have not seen queue jumping start so early in the month. Thus you can bet the farm that throughout October, the total number of gold oz standing will increase from this level.
November gained 90 contracts to stand at 1072.
The big December contract GAINED 366 contracts UP to 445,652 contracts..
THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH OI STANDING FOR OCTOBER (95.527 tonnes). GENERALLY OCTOBER IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY(GOLDMAN SACHS) JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE ON OCTOBER FOR PHYSICAL METAL. GOLDMAN SACHS ONE OF THE LEADERS OF THE NEW LONDON LME EXCHANGE NEEDS THE GOLD INVENTORY FOR LIQUIDITY AND INITIAL CONTRIBUTION WITH OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MONTH AND OTHER MONTHS IS THAT THIS GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER WILL LEAVE THE COMEX AND HEAD FOR LONDON.
We had 2975 notices filed today for 297,500 oz OR 9.2534 TONNES.
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (19,381) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (814,306 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (2975 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,071,200 OZ OR 95.527 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of Oct
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2020 contract month:
No of notices filed so far (19381, x 100 oz +14,306 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2975) x 100 oz which equals 3,071,200 oz standing OR 95.527 TONNES in this active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a OCT delivery month (a poor active delivery month).
We gained 58 contracts or an additional 5800 oz will stand on this side of the pond searching for metal.
NEW PLEDGED GOLD: BRINKS
592,648.822 oz NOW PLEDGED SEPT 15.2020/HSBC 18.433 TONNES ( A HUGE INCREASE FROM 10.6)
42,548.308.00 PLEDGED APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA: 1.3234 tonnes
deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7 (600 tonnes)
277,934.09 oz (some deleted august 3) JPM 8.644 TONNES
610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/ july 2/july 21 19.017 tonnes
51,084.609 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.588 tonnes jpm
total pledged gold: 1,574,454.119 oz 48.97 tonnes
total registered, pledged and eligible (customer) gold 36,930,173.286 oz 1,148.68 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
total 4 GC gold: 126.34 tonnes
total gold net of 4 GC: 1022.034 tonnes
end
I have compiled data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months
The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.
I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month. I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.
The first graph is a logarithmic graph and the second graph, linear.
You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.
THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL
END
And now for the wild silver comex results
And now for the wild silver comex results
INITIAL STANDINGS
OCT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory |
175,518.900 oz
Loomis
|
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory |
635,881.200 oz
CNT
|
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory |
599,330.470oz
CNT
|
| No of oz served today (contracts) |
161
CONTRACT(S)
(805,000 OZ)
|
| No of oz to be served (notices) |
487 contracts
2,435,000 oz)
|
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1368 contracts
6,840,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
|
4:18 PM (0 minutes ago)
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https://www.mintpressnews.com/uk-court-venezuela-gold-juan-guaido/271752/
END
US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case
- The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
- A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
- In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.
CNBC.com
The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.
The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.
The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.
Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.
Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.
Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.
In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”
“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.
J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.
Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”
Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.
In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.
Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.
Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.
In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.
Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.
Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.
The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.
Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market
- Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
- Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.
Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.
Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.
Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.
That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.
Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.
Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.
On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.
“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.
The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.
In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.
end
March 4.2019
Parker City News
JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader
Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.
At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.
The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.
The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.
A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.
Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.
Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.
Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.
Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.
One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”
J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.
The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.
After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.
Kovel declined to comment.
Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.
-END-
Markets Rally On Optimism Trump May Be Discharged As Soon
As Today
In addition to optimism over a covid vaccine, optimism about the economic recovery, and optimism about a fiscal stimulus, we can now add another category of “optimism” cited by traders to justify overnight futures ramps (at least for the next few days): optimism Trump will be discharged from Howard Reed hospital any day now, perhaps as soon as today, and then stage a full recovery. Sure enough, on Monday US index future bounced after doctors said Trump could be discharged from Howard Reed imminently, while sentiment was also lifted amid tentative signs of progress on a new fiscal stimulus.
Late on Sunday Trump released a series of videos in an effort to reassure the public that he is recovering (following by a frenzied tweetstorm on Monday morning), although his condition remains unclear and outside experts warn that his case may be severe. Trump also surprised supporters outside Walter Reed with an impromptu drive through, even as it earned him a fresh round of anger by liberal commentators.
Feeding the improved market tone were comments from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who said on Sunday that progress was being made in talks with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on a new bipartisan package of coronavirus relief measures, although she has said exactly the same thing for weeks now, yet neither party is willing to budge and make the much needed final compromise. Doubts about the scale of further fiscal aid and a slowing economic recovery have weighed on the S&P 500 recently, with the benchmark index in September logging its worst month since the coronavirus-driven crash earlier this year.
At 730am, Dow e-minis were up 206 points, S&P 500 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.72%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 100.75 points, or just under 1%. This follows a furious short covering spree in NQs last week, as discussed previously.
In premarket trading, Regeneron rallied after Trump was given an experimental antibody treatment made by the drugmaker. Tech gigacaps Apple, Nvidia, Netflix, Amazon.com, Microsoft and Tesla all rose after weighing heavily on the Nasdaq on Friday.
Overhanging the relief rally, however, were concerns that Trump’s case could be more severe than public disclosures suggest, and that more restrictive measures by governments to slow coronavirus infections could harm the economic recovery. Some traders were concerned by doctors’ admission that Trump had been given supplementary oxygen and steroids.
“Many questions remain including the use of the steroid drug … which is usually reserved for those with severe illness,” said Raymond James strategist Chris Bailey in London. “Global cases now top 35 million and various new restrictions in Paris, New York, etc”.
Trump’s infection also comes less than one month before the presidential election on Nov. 3, potentially fuelling more market volatility and making the outcome of the vote even more difficult to predict. “In terms of the impact on the election, we haven’t seen enough polling to assess whether this increases or decreases his chances of winning,” said Deutsche Bank strategists. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Sunday, Democrat contender Joe Biden opened his widest lead in a month in the U.S. presidential race. However, the same poll inexplicably polled far more Democrats than Republicans, and we all know what happened in 2016 when “polls” did the same.
The MSCI world equity index was up 0.4%, supported by overnight gains across Asia and a positive start in Europe. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.7%. In Europe, consumer companies and banks led a broad advance. A survey on Monday showed the euro zone’s economic recovery faltered last month as new restrictions sent its dominant service sector into reverse. IHS Markit’s final composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.4, just above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction, and down from 51.9 last month.
Equities in Asia notched gains, led by materials and finance, after falling in the last session. Japan’s Topix – which actually managed to stay open without crashing for the entire day – gained 1.7%, with Shimachu and Danto rising the most.
In rates, yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose to 0.7138%, with yields higher by 2bp-3bp at long end, steepening 5s30s toward YTD highs above 123bp; 10-year yields around 0.712%, higher by more than 1bp vs Friday’s close. The long end of Treasury curve was cheaper as U.S. trading got under way. Aussie and Japanese bonds fell in Asia session, adding to long-end pressure. Treasury supply this week includes 10- and 30-year auctions Wednesday and Thursday. Euro zone bond yields edged lower on concerns about possible new restrictions to fight the coronavirus. The French government announced new restrictions, closing bars for two weeks. Other countries across Europe are also weighing up more measures.
In FX, the dollar slumped, reversing some of Friday’s gains, as investors awaited positive news about U.S. Trump’s health and developments in fiscal aid talks in Washington; one possible upward catalyst for the dollar is that near record dollar shorts have started to reversed.
The yen retreated and Treasuries were steady. The euro advanced, while options capturing the immediate aftermath of the U.S. presidential election remain in demand amid uncertainty over Donald Trump’s condition. The Swiss franc gained amid speculative buying on the back of NEC Corp.’s purchase of Swiss banking software outfit Avaloq Group AG for $2.23 billion. The pound was steady; leveraged funds cut net longs on the pound to the lowest since August, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the week through Sept. 29. The funds increased net longs in the euro to the highest since August.
In commodities, speculation Trump could leave hospital sent oil prices up more than 2%, rebounding from a 3 week low. An escalating workers’ strike in Norway that has shut four of Equinor’s oil and gas fields also helped drive the gains. Brent prices were up 2% at $40.1 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate added 2.2% to $37.9 a barrel. Gold rebounded back over $1,900, driven by the weakness in the dollar.
Looking at the day ahead, we will get the final U.S. services and composite PMIs read for September at 9:45 a.m. with ISM services for the month at 10:00 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are today’s Fed speakers, while EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier will discuss the neverending Brexit drama with Angela Merkel ahead of resumption of negotiations in London later this week. Joe Biden will be on the campaign trail in Miami.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 3,355.75
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 364.88
- MXAP up 1.2% to 171.63
- MXAPJ up 1.1% to 563.49
- Nikkei up 1.2% to 23,312.14
- Topix up 1.7% to 1,637.25
- Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 23,767.78
- Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,218.05
- Sensex up 0.9% to 39,047.63
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 2.6% to 5,941.58
- Kospi up 1.3% to 2,358.00
- Brent futures up 2.3% to $40.17/bbl
- Gold spot little changed at $1,899.73
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 93.71
- German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to -0.533%
- Euro up 0.2% to $1.1738
- Italian 10Y yield fell 3.7 bps to 0.581%
- Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 0.236%
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- President Donald Trump briefly left his hospital in a car to greet supporters gathered outside, after posting a video on Twitter saying he was about to make a surprise visit
- Volatility eased in U.S. equity futures as optimism over President Donald Trump’s medical prognosis and hopes for fresh economic stimulus put a brake on selling that whipped up Friday
- Economists and investors see mixed messages from the ECB’s top policy makers. Most important is a perceived disconnect between President Christine Lagarde’s press conferences after policy decisions, and blog posts by Chief Economist Philip Lane the following day
- The stage is set for a showdown on Brexit at a European Union summit next week. French President Emmanuel Macron’s reluctance to make concessions on fish is stirring concern among officials he could sink efforts to reach a wider trade accord as negotiators begin on Monday a two-week period of intense talks
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she is going into isolation after contact with a person who tested positive for coronavirus
A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk
Asian equity markets and US equity futures began the week with a constructive tone as the regional bourses reopened from recent holiday closures and participants also digested the positive updates regarding President Trump’s condition, which was said to have continued to improve and he could be discharged from hospital as early as today. In addition, some also attributed the positive tone to the latest polls which showed a widening lead for former VP Biden following last week’s presidential debate. ASX 200 (+2.6%) outperformed with the broad gains led by a surge in energy and financials on the eve of the budget announcement, where Australia’s national debt ceiling is expected to be raised to above AUD 1.1tln and income tax cuts valued at billions are set to be backdated in an effort to provide immediate economic stimulus. Nikkei 225 (+1.2%) traded positively as exporters reaped the benefits of a weaker currency that was spurred by the risk tone and alongside some murmuring of Gotobi demand. Hang Seng (+1.3%) was also upbeat as participants returned following the holidays although mainland China is to remain shut for most this week and won’t reopen until Friday, while there were some weak spots including SMIC shares which have dropped over 6% after the US informed its suppliers they will be subject to additional export restrictions. Finally, 10yr JGBs were weaker amid the gains in riskier assets but with downside stemmed by support near the 152.00 level and with the BoJ present in the market for a total JPY 840bln of JGBs with 1-3yr and 5-10yr maturities.
Top Asian News
- How Evergrande’s Billionaire Founder Skirted Latest Crisis
- Top India Court Asks Government to Outline Interest Waiver Plans
- Credit Suisse Hires HSBC Veteran Oey for Asia Wealth Push
- Singapore to Pay Would-Be Parents for Babies as Virus Drags On
European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.6%) kicked the week off on the front-foot, before staging a mild pullback, as markets continue to assess updates on US President Trump’s health, the Presidential election and stimulus discussions. In terms of President Trump, it appears that he could be discharged from hospital as soon as today with reports suggesting an improvement in his condition, albeit some in the medical community have raised doubts over the upbeat narrative presented by the administration. Polling is yet to encapsulate the news of Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis, however, polls detailing the fallout of last week’s debate have moved in favour of former VP Biden who now holds a 14-point lead in the NBC/WSJ poll (prev. 8 point lead); desks have subsequently continued to talk up the possibility of a Democratic “blue sweep”. On the stimulus front, House Speaker Pelosi said that they are making progress on coronavirus relief legislation, whilst Senate Majority Leader McConnell said “we are getting closer” on stimulus negotiations. However, other reports noted that Republicans still give low odds on another pandemic stimulus bill. In terms of performance of European indices, the IBEX (+1.0%) is the main outlier to the upside with gains in the domestic banking sector spurred by reports that the Sabadell (+3.6%) CEO contacted his counterparts from BBVA (+3.2%) and Kutxabank in recent weeks with regards to a merger, according to sources. From a sector standpoint, aside from the banking sector, travel & leisure names lead the way higher this morning despite ongoing concerns about the pick-up in COVID-19 cases (particularly in the UK), whilst strength can also be seen in some of the other pro-cyclical sectors such as oil & gas and auto names. Support has also been seen for UK homebuilders this morning after UK PM Johnson promised to create a “Generation Buy” scheme to help young people enter the property market. The PM has reportedly asked minister to mull a scheme for long-term fixed-rate mortgages with 5% deposits. For individual movers, Cineworld (-31%) are the clear underperformer this morning after confirming it will close all of its cinemas in the UK, Ireland and US this week because of the impact of coronavirus (UK and US closures are to be temporary). K&S (+17.6%) are the best performer in the Stoxx 600 reports noted the Co. is in advanced discussions to sell their Morton Salt unit to Kissner Group for ~USD 3bln. Weir Group (+17.0%) shares have seen notable support after announcing a USD 405mln divestment of its oil & gas unit to Caterpillar for USD 405mln.
Top European News
- Europe Tightens Curbs as Leaders Gird for Long Virus Fight
- Two- Speed Europe Sees Germany Thriving as Rest of Region Suffers
- EU Commission President Von der Leyen Says She’s Self-Isolating
- ECB Has a Messaging Problem as Lagarde-Lane Dynamic Muddies View
In FX, a softer start to the week for the broader Dollar and Index, with the latter currently contained within a tight 93.578-832 parameter following the fallout of US President Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis which could see the President back at the White House as soon as today. Meanwhile, State-side stimulus talks remain with Senate Republican sources giving low odds for another bill, inferring that discussions could extend to after the 2020 Election. DXY tested its 21 DMA (93.646) to the downside, with the 50 DMA seen around 93.270, whilst upside levels see Friday’s high at 94.035 followed by last week’s peak at 94.298. Looking ahead, the docket sees Markit Services/Composite finals, ISM services PMI and potential comments from Fed 2021-voter Evans.
- CHF/JPY – The traditional safe-haven FX have seen an early divergence with participants attributing Swiss outperformance to some M&A flows amid reports Japan’s NEC was planning to acquire Swiss software maker Avaloq for USD 2.2bln, whilst some strength may still be garnered from speculation the US currency manipulation report may be postponed until after the US elections, with Switzerland now ticking all three boxes to be labelled as a currency manipulator. That being said, the US Treasury will then offer a period of negotiations, with more drastic measures imposed should discussions fail. USD/CHF briefly dipped below its 21 DMA (0.9163) but matched intraday lows set on Wednesday and Thursday last week (0.9160), with the pair’s 50 DMA residing around 0.9130. USD/JPY resides on the other side of the G10 spectrum with early losses coinciding with gains across APAC stock markets. USD/JPY tests Friday’s 105.66 high with eyes on the 50 DMA (105.74), with the pair failing to close above the MA for the past three consecutive sessions. USD/JPY Opex today includes USD 1.25bln rolling off at strike 105.00.
- EUR/GBP – Both on a firmer footing with the aid of a receding Buck, with the currencies on watch for Brexit developments in the aftermath of the videocall between PM Johnson and EC President, which noted that progress had been made but significant gaps remain, albeit the two sides have agreed to 11 days of “intensified” talks ahead of the UK de-facto deadline. Cable saw early sellers which prompted the pair to test 1.2900 to the downside, but thereafter nursed losses to print fresh session highs of 1.2964, with Sterling somewhat supported by surprise revisions higher to Services and Composite PMIs. EUR/USD meanwhile saw little action to revisions higher to final PMIs. EUR/USD retains a 1.1700+ status as it took out several potential resistance levels at 1.1750 (Fri high), 1.1755 (Wed high) ahead of 1.1763 (21 DMA), whilst the NY cut sees EUR 761mln at strike 1.1730 and around EUR 870mln at 1.1700.
- CAD, AUD, NZD – All firmer to varying degrees, with the Loonie outperforming the non-US Dollars as it coat-tails on the firmer crude prices, whilst the Aussie eyes the RBA and Aussie budget and the Kiwi eking mild gains but with gains capped on AUD/NZD dynamics. USD/CAD trickles lower below 1.3300 having had tested the level overnight, with a current base at 1.3264, with its 21 DMA at 1.3258 and 50 DMA at 1.3241. AUD/USD meanwhile inches closer towards the 0.7200 mark (vs. current low 0.7157), with its 21 and 50 DMAs residing at 0.7201 and 0.7207 respectively. Finally, NZD/USD remains contained in a narrow 0.6631-54 band as AUD/NZD reclaims 1.0800.
In commodities, WTI and Brent futures open the week on a firmer footing, with early strength coinciding with gains across stock markets overnight after Friday’s pessimism unwound amid weekend reports that US President Trump could be at the white house as early as today. Meanwhile, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh reportedly escalated dramatically. It was also reported that the Nagorno-Karabakh region stated that 18 civilians were killed and over 90 were wounded in a week of fighting – with traders keeping eyes on any potential targeting of oil fields/refineries/ports of the OPEC+ member. Elsewhere, Libyan oil production ticked higher to 290k BPD from last week’s 270k BPD, according to sources. In terms of where we currently stand WTI Nov (USD 37/bbl) trades on either side of USD 38/bbl whilst Brent Dec reclaimed the USD 40/bbl handle (vs. low USD 39.14/bbl). Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are choppy, with earlier weakness in the yellow metal offset by a softer Dollar, with prices now back around the USD 1900/oz mark (vs. low 1887/oz), whilst spot silver attempted a breach of USD 24/oz to the upside – with the latest CFTC data suggesting hedge funds and money managers reduced positions in COMEX gold and increased them in silver contracts in the week to Sept 29th. Finally, LME copper prices are relatively flat having had drifted off highs in tandem with price action seen in stocks.
US Event Calendar
- 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 54.6, prior 54.6
- 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 54.4
- 10am: ISM Services Index, est. 56.2, prior 56.9
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I can almost certainly guarantee that wherever you’re reading this from you had better weather than me this weekend. Or at least no worse. It rained from start to finish. Any weekend with the golf course closed is a bad one for me and watching Frozen 2 the twentieth time in two months to fill the time didn’t improve the mood. Then the coup de grace was seeing Liverpool concede 7 (seven – as they always used to type out and put in brackets for unusual scores) for the first time since 1963 last night! Quite astonishing.
The business world continues to be quite extraordinary at the moment too and Mr Trump again dominated the weekend headlines. I’m sure you’ve seen the conflicting and confusing reports concerning his health over the weekend so we won’t go into that here. The latest from yesterday was that his doctors suggested he could be released back to the White House as soon as today. He also appeared on a video last night looking in good spirits. According to the wires this has helped S&P 500 futures to trade up +0.61% this morning but to be honest it could also be because a poll showed that Biden was 14pp up over the weekend (more below). We actually published the EMR almost an hour earlier than usual on Friday and four minutes after it hit inboxes the headlines came through that the President had tested positive. So we will try not to be that efficient again and end up as virtual fish and chip paper as we were on Friday.
In terms of the impact on the election, we haven’t seen enough polling to assess whether this increases or decreases his chances of winning. There was an NBC-WSJ poll released over the weekend showing Biden ahead by 14 points – the biggest lead of the campaign. However this polling was carried out between the first debate last Tuesday and the positive Covid test early on Friday morning. For comparison the last poll from this combination saw at 8pp lead last month. An Ipsos and a YouGov poll have just been released before we go to print and they seem to show around a 10pp and 7pp lead for Biden respectively. These were conducted on Friday and Saturday.
This confirms what was suspected last week, namely that polls were edging further towards Biden even before Friday with the first evidence now coming through that this may have continued. Indeed the recent price action suggests that the market wants certainty more than anything else. Given the realistic options (assuming the polls are not completely out), perhaps the market would currently most like a Democratic clean sweep as this would increase the likelihood of near term certainty. This outcome was edging up in likelihood amongst respected political pundits ahead of Mr Trump’s positive test so Friday’s news brought back all sorts of uncertainties with tail risks increasing in all sorts of direction. The fact that Biden tested negative later in the day seemed to help markets which partly supports the theory above. So this week the market will await more news from the Trump camp and signs of movement in the polls. If Biden pulls away then markets will probably be pretty relaxed. So the batch of polls post Trump’s illness are going to be important.
As we’ll see below the VP debate takes place on Wednesday which is the next major planned event. We’ll also see what the latest on the stimulus package is. It feels like both sides are trying to show that they are doing the best they can to bridge the gap but the reality is that both sides seem to be quite far apart still and it will be an enormous feat to bridge the gap pre-election. Nonetheless, the FT reported yesterday that the US President Donald Trump has issued a call for negotiators to “work together” and complete a deal.
Overnight, Asian markets have started the week on front foot with the Nikkei (+1.20%), Hang Seng (+1.46%), Kospi (+1.18%) and Asx (+2.47%) all seeing strong advances and recovering from Friday’s morning’s shock. China’s markets are closed for holidays. In Fx, the US dollar is trading down -0.11%. In terms of overnight data, Japan September services PMI was confirmed at 46.9 (vs. 45.6 in flash).
Back to politics and onto Brexit. U.K. PM Johnson had the planned VC talk with EC President von der Leyen on Saturday and in a joint statement they instructed their chief negotiators to work intensively in order to try to bridge the obvious gaps that there are and emphasised “the importance of finding an agreement, if at all possible”. On Sunday Johnson reaffirmed that he’d like a deal but said the U.K. could prosper without one. The FT also had an article last night suggesting Barnier is going to hold talks with the impacted EU countries on fisheries which shows some progress and the possibility of negotiation movement. For me it seems like the probabilities of a deal have edged up over the last couple of weeks. In terms of news flow and headlines it’s seems to have been 7 steps forward and only 5 back. We will see. Sterling is broadly flat this morning at 1.2938 ahead of another week of talks.
Onto the virus and the UK reported an extremely high 35,850 new cases over the weekend but these were heavily impacted by around 16,000 previous unreported cases between September 25 to October 2 due to technical issues. Even after taking this into account the new weekend cases stood at 19,850, a higher run rate compared to previous weekends. Meanwhile, the delay in entering those 16,000 cases also means that their recent contacts were not immediately followed up. This will put more pressure on the government.
Bloomberg is also reporting that France may shut down bars in the Paris region and impose other new restrictions in the area. The country reported 29,537 new cases this weekend versus an average of c.25,000 cases over the previous two. In the US, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said he plans to close schools and non-essential businesses in nine neighbourhoods in Brooklyn and Queens where there’s been a surge in coronavirus infections. Indoor and outdoor dining will also be closed in these areas. For more details on how the virus is spreading in major regions of the world see the table below. There are a lot of footnotes so please see those in conjunction with the raw data. On the vaccine front, the FT reported the UK government’s head of the vaccine taskforce Kate Bingham as saying that less than half of the UK population could be vaccinated. She said, “There is going to be no vaccination of people under 18. It’s an adult-only vaccine for people over 50, focusing on health workers, care home workers and the vulnerable.”
In terms of this week, outside of the VP debate on Wednesday we’ll get the latest minutes from recent Fed (Weds) and ECB (Thurs) meetings, and also hear from both Fed Chair Powell (tomorrow) and ECB President Lagarde (tomorrow and Weds). The only G20 decision next week is from the Reserve Bank of Australia tomorrow. Our Australia economists expects no change in policy, but we will be watching for clues about whether a rate cut might yet be delivered by the end of the year. The main data highlight will likely be the release of the services and composite PMIs from around the world. Most are today but the U.K. comes tomorrow and China’s on Thursday after holidays. The flash readings showed clear signs of the services sector in Europe being affected by the second wave of Covid-19, with the flash Euro Area services PMI falling to 47.6, which is below the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction, with both Germany (49.1) and France (48.5) also in contractionary territory. We will see if this trend is confirmed and whether there was any late month deterioration from the initial flash reading. The day by day week ahead calendar is at the end.
Recapping last week now, as we moved into Q4, US equities saw their first positive week since August even with a weaker end of Friday. In a particularly hectic week that started with one of the most raucous US Presidential debates in memory and ended with the sitting US President testing positive for Covid-19 equity volatility jumped. The VIX volatility index rose +1.25pts to 27.63 even as equity prices rose – it was the second largest weekly rise in vol since June. Even with this uncertainty, the S&P 500 rose +1.52% (-0.96% Friday) on the week, breaking a streak of four losing weeks – the longest since August 2019. The NASDAQ rose +1.48% (-2.22% Friday) for the second weekly gain. European equities rose as well with the Stoxx 600 ending the week +2.02% (+0.25% Friday), the third weekly gain out of the last four. The IBEX (+1.90%), FTSE 100 (+1.02%), and CAC (+2.01%) all posted strong weekly equity performances even as their home countries reinstated some restrictions in the face of increasing Covid-19 caseloads.
The dollar dropped (-0.84%) as risk assets generally gained, for just its second weekly loss since the end of August. The drop in the dollar saw gold gain +2.06%, as the precious metal finished the week just under the $1900/oz level. Even though equities gained on the week, oil did not follow suit as worries on global demand saw WTI (-7.95%) and Brent crude (-6.32%) fall sharply and is now down four out of the last five weeks and is at its lowest weekly close since June. Core sovereign bonds were mixed on the week as US 10yr Treasury yields rose +4.6bps (+2.3bps Friday) to finish at 0.701% and 10yr Gilt yields rose +5.7bps (+1.2bps Friday) to 0.25%, while 10yr Bund yields were down -0.7bps (unchanged Friday) to -0.54%. Italian 10yr yields fell -10.2bps to 0.784% – their lowest levels since an all-time low last September.
On the data front, US Nonfarm payrolls rose by 661k (vs. 859k expected) on Friday while August’s numbers were revised up to 1.49 million from 1.37m. The unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 7.9% (vs. 8.2 expected), though the labour-force participation rate declined by 0.3 points to 61.4%. Meanwhile in Europe, the Euro-area CPI reading showed inflation slowed to -0.3% in August (vs. -0.2% expected) while the core rate set a six-year low at 0.2% (0.4% expected).
Markets Rally On Optimism Trump May Be Discharged As Soon As Today
In addition to optimism over a covid vaccine, optimism about the economic recovery, and optimism about a fiscal stimulus, we can now add another category of “optimism” cited by traders to justify overnight futures ramps (at least for the next few days): optimism Trump will be discharged from Howard Reed hospital any day now, perhaps as soon as today, and then stage a full recovery. Sure enough, on Monday US index future bounced after doctors said Trump could be discharged from Howard Reed imminently, while sentiment was also lifted amid tentative signs of progress on a new fiscal stimulus.
Late on Sunday Trump released a series of videos in an effort to reassure the public that he is recovering (following by a frenzied tweetstorm on Monday morning), although his condition remains unclear and outside experts warn that his case may be severe. Trump also surprised supporters outside Walter Reed with an impromptu drive through, even as it earned him a fresh round of anger by liberal commentators.
Feeding the improved market tone were comments from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who said on Sunday that progress was being made in talks with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on a new bipartisan package of coronavirus relief measures, although she has said exactly the same thing for weeks now, yet neither party is willing to budge and make the much needed final compromise. Doubts about the scale of further fiscal aid and a slowing economic recovery have weighed on the S&P 500 recently, with the benchmark index in September logging its worst month since the coronavirus-driven crash earlier this year.
At 730am, Dow e-minis were up 206 points, S&P 500 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.72%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 100.75 points, or just under 1%. This follows a furious short covering spree in NQs last week, as discussed previously.
In premarket trading, Regeneron rallied after Trump was given an experimental antibody treatment made by the drugmaker. Tech gigacaps Apple, Nvidia, Netflix, Amazon.com, Microsoft and Tesla all rose after weighing heavily on the Nasdaq on Friday.
Overhanging the relief rally, however, were concerns that Trump’s case could be more severe than public disclosures suggest, and that more restrictive measures by governments to slow coronavirus infections could harm the economic recovery. Some traders were concerned by doctors’ admission that Trump had been given supplementary oxygen and steroids.
“Many questions remain including the use of the steroid drug … which is usually reserved for those with severe illness,” said Raymond James strategist Chris Bailey in London. “Global cases now top 35 million and various new restrictions in Paris, New York, etc”.
Trump’s infection also comes less than one month before the presidential election on Nov. 3, potentially fuelling more market volatility and making the outcome of the vote even more difficult to predict. “In terms of the impact on the election, we haven’t seen enough polling to assess whether this increases or decreases his chances of winning,” said Deutsche Bank strategists. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Sunday, Democrat contender Joe Biden opened his widest lead in a month in the U.S. presidential race. However, the same poll inexplicably polled far more Democrats than Republicans, and we all know what happened in 2016 when “polls” did the same.
The MSCI world equity index was up 0.4%, supported by overnight gains across Asia and a positive start in Europe. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.7%. In Europe, consumer companies and banks led a broad advance. A survey on Monday showed the euro zone’s economic recovery faltered last month as new restrictions sent its dominant service sector into reverse. IHS Markit’s final composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.4, just above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction, and down from 51.9 last month.
Equities in Asia notched gains, led by materials and finance, after falling in the last session. Japan’s Topix – which actually managed to stay open without crashing for the entire day – gained 1.7%, with Shimachu and Danto rising the most.
In rates, yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose to 0.7138%, with yields higher by 2bp-3bp at long end, steepening 5s30s toward YTD highs above 123bp; 10-year yields around 0.712%, higher by more than 1bp vs Friday’s close. The long end of Treasury curve was cheaper as U.S. trading got under way. Aussie and Japanese bonds fell in Asia session, adding to long-end pressure. Treasury supply this week includes 10- and 30-year auctions Wednesday and Thursday. Euro zone bond yields edged lower on concerns about possible new restrictions to fight the coronavirus. The French government announced new restrictions, closing bars for two weeks. Other countries across Europe are also weighing up more measures.
In FX, the dollar slumped, reversing some of Friday’s gains, as investors awaited positive news about U.S. Trump’s health and developments in fiscal aid talks in Washington; one possible upward catalyst for the dollar is that near record dollar shorts have started to reversed.
The yen retreated and Treasuries were steady. The euro advanced, while options capturing the immediate aftermath of the U.S. presidential election remain in demand amid uncertainty over Donald Trump’s condition. The Swiss franc gained amid speculative buying on the back of NEC Corp.’s purchase of Swiss banking software outfit Avaloq Group AG for $2.23 billion. The pound was steady; leveraged funds cut net longs on the pound to the lowest since August, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the week through Sept. 29. The funds increased net longs in the euro to the highest since August.
In commodities, speculation Trump could leave hospital sent oil prices up more than 2%, rebounding from a 3 week low. An escalating workers’ strike in Norway that has shut four of Equinor’s oil and gas fields also helped drive the gains. Brent prices were up 2% at $40.1 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate added 2.2% to $37.9 a barrel. Gold rebounded back over $1,900, driven by the weakness in the dollar.
Looking at the day ahead, we will get the final U.S. services and composite PMIs read for September at 9:45 a.m. with ISM services for the month at 10:00 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are today’s Fed speakers, while EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier will discuss the neverending Brexit drama with Angela Merkel ahead of resumption of negotiations in London later this week. Joe Biden will be on the campaign trail in Miami.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 3,355.75
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 364.88
- MXAP up 1.2% to 171.63
- MXAPJ up 1.1% to 563.49
- Nikkei up 1.2% to 23,312.14
- Topix up 1.7% to 1,637.25
- Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 23,767.78
- Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,218.05
- Sensex up 0.9% to 39,047.63
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 2.6% to 5,941.58
- Kospi up 1.3% to 2,358.00
- Brent futures up 2.3% to $40.17/bbl
- Gold spot little changed at $1,899.73
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 93.71
- German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to -0.533%
- Euro up 0.2% to $1.1738
- Italian 10Y yield fell 3.7 bps to 0.581%
- Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 0.236%
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- President Donald Trump briefly left his hospital in a car to greet supporters gathered outside, after posting a video on Twitter saying he was about to make a surprise visit
- Volatility eased in U.S. equity futures as optimism over President Donald Trump’s medical prognosis and hopes for fresh economic stimulus put a brake on selling that whipped up Friday
- Economists and investors see mixed messages from the ECB’s top policy makers. Most important is a perceived disconnect between President Christine Lagarde’s press conferences after policy decisions, and blog posts by Chief Economist Philip Lane the following day
- The stage is set for a showdown on Brexit at a European Union summit next week. French President Emmanuel Macron’s reluctance to make concessions on fish is stirring concern among officials he could sink efforts to reach a wider trade accord as negotiators begin on Monday a two-week period of intense talks
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she is going into isolation after contact with a person who tested positive for coronavirus
A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk
Asian equity markets and US equity futures began the week with a constructive tone as the regional bourses reopened from recent holiday closures and participants also digested the positive updates regarding President Trump’s condition, which was said to have continued to improve and he could be discharged from hospital as early as today. In addition, some also attributed the positive tone to the latest polls which showed a widening lead for former VP Biden following last week’s presidential debate. ASX 200 (+2.6%) outperformed with the broad gains led by a surge in energy and financials on the eve of the budget announcement, where Australia’s national debt ceiling is expected to be raised to above AUD 1.1tln and income tax cuts valued at billions are set to be backdated in an effort to provide immediate economic stimulus. Nikkei 225 (+1.2%) traded positively as exporters reaped the benefits of a weaker currency that was spurred by the risk tone and alongside some murmuring of Gotobi demand. Hang Seng (+1.3%) was also upbeat as participants returned following the holidays although mainland China is to remain shut for most this week and won’t reopen until Friday, while there were some weak spots including SMIC shares which have dropped over 6% after the US informed its suppliers they will be subject to additional export restrictions. Finally, 10yr JGBs were weaker amid the gains in riskier assets but with downside stemmed by support near the 152.00 level and with the BoJ present in the market for a total JPY 840bln of JGBs with 1-3yr and 5-10yr maturities.
Top Asian News
- How Evergrande’s Billionaire Founder Skirted Latest Crisis
- Top India Court Asks Government to Outline Interest Waiver Plans
- Credit Suisse Hires HSBC Veteran Oey for Asia Wealth Push
- Singapore to Pay Would-Be Parents for Babies as Virus Drags On
European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.6%) kicked the week off on the front-foot, before staging a mild pullback, as markets continue to assess updates on US President Trump’s health, the Presidential election and stimulus discussions. In terms of President Trump, it appears that he could be discharged from hospital as soon as today with reports suggesting an improvement in his condition, albeit some in the medical community have raised doubts over the upbeat narrative presented by the administration. Polling is yet to encapsulate the news of Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis, however, polls detailing the fallout of last week’s debate have moved in favour of former VP Biden who now holds a 14-point lead in the NBC/WSJ poll (prev. 8 point lead); desks have subsequently continued to talk up the possibility of a Democratic “blue sweep”. On the stimulus front, House Speaker Pelosi said that they are making progress on coronavirus relief legislation, whilst Senate Majority Leader McConnell said “we are getting closer” on stimulus negotiations. However, other reports noted that Republicans still give low odds on another pandemic stimulus bill. In terms of performance of European indices, the IBEX (+1.0%) is the main outlier to the upside with gains in the domestic banking sector spurred by reports that the Sabadell (+3.6%) CEO contacted his counterparts from BBVA (+3.2%) and Kutxabank in recent weeks with regards to a merger, according to sources. From a sector standpoint, aside from the banking sector, travel & leisure names lead the way higher this morning despite ongoing concerns about the pick-up in COVID-19 cases (particularly in the UK), whilst strength can also be seen in some of the other pro-cyclical sectors such as oil & gas and auto names. Support has also been seen for UK homebuilders this morning after UK PM Johnson promised to create a “Generation Buy” scheme to help young people enter the property market. The PM has reportedly asked minister to mull a scheme for long-term fixed-rate mortgages with 5% deposits. For individual movers, Cineworld (-31%) are the clear underperformer this morning after confirming it will close all of its cinemas in the UK, Ireland and US this week because of the impact of coronavirus (UK and US closures are to be temporary). K&S (+17.6%) are the best performer in the Stoxx 600 reports noted the Co. is in advanced discussions to sell their Morton Salt unit to Kissner Group for ~USD 3bln. Weir Group (+17.0%) shares have seen notable support after announcing a USD 405mln divestment of its oil & gas unit to Caterpillar for USD 405mln.
Top European News
- Europe Tightens Curbs as Leaders Gird for Long Virus Fight
- Two- Speed Europe Sees Germany Thriving as Rest of Region Suffers
- EU Commission President Von der Leyen Says She’s Self-Isolating
- ECB Has a Messaging Problem as Lagarde-Lane Dynamic Muddies View
In FX, a softer start to the week for the broader Dollar and Index, with the latter currently contained within a tight 93.578-832 parameter following the fallout of US President Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis which could see the President back at the White House as soon as today. Meanwhile, State-side stimulus talks remain with Senate Republican sources giving low odds for another bill, inferring that discussions could extend to after the 2020 Election. DXY tested its 21 DMA (93.646) to the downside, with the 50 DMA seen around 93.270, whilst upside levels see Friday’s high at 94.035 followed by last week’s peak at 94.298. Looking ahead, the docket sees Markit Services/Composite finals, ISM services PMI and potential comments from Fed 2021-voter Evans.
- CHF/JPY – The traditional safe-haven FX have seen an early divergence with participants attributing Swiss outperformance to some M&A flows amid reports Japan’s NEC was planning to acquire Swiss software maker Avaloq for USD 2.2bln, whilst some strength may still be garnered from speculation the US currency manipulation report may be postponed until after the US elections, with Switzerland now ticking all three boxes to be labelled as a currency manipulator. That being said, the US Treasury will then offer a period of negotiations, with more drastic measures imposed should discussions fail. USD/CHF briefly dipped below its 21 DMA (0.9163) but matched intraday lows set on Wednesday and Thursday last week (0.9160), with the pair’s 50 DMA residing around 0.9130. USD/JPY resides on the other side of the G10 spectrum with early losses coinciding with gains across APAC stock markets. USD/JPY tests Friday’s 105.66 high with eyes on the 50 DMA (105.74), with the pair failing to close above the MA for the past three consecutive sessions. USD/JPY Opex today includes USD 1.25bln rolling off at strike 105.00.
- EUR/GBP – Both on a firmer footing with the aid of a receding Buck, with the currencies on watch for Brexit developments in the aftermath of the videocall between PM Johnson and EC President, which noted that progress had been made but significant gaps remain, albeit the two sides have agreed to 11 days of “intensified” talks ahead of the UK de-facto deadline. Cable saw early sellers which prompted the pair to test 1.2900 to the downside, but thereafter nursed losses to print fresh session highs of 1.2964, with Sterling somewhat supported by surprise revisions higher to Services and Composite PMIs. EUR/USD meanwhile saw little action to revisions higher to final PMIs. EUR/USD retains a 1.1700+ status as it took out several potential resistance levels at 1.1750 (Fri high), 1.1755 (Wed high) ahead of 1.1763 (21 DMA), whilst the NY cut sees EUR 761mln at strike 1.1730 and around EUR 870mln at 1.1700.
- CAD, AUD, NZD – All firmer to varying degrees, with the Loonie outperforming the non-US Dollars as it coat-tails on the firmer crude prices, whilst the Aussie eyes the RBA and Aussie budget and the Kiwi eking mild gains but with gains capped on AUD/NZD dynamics. USD/CAD trickles lower below 1.3300 having had tested the level overnight, with a current base at 1.3264, with its 21 DMA at 1.3258 and 50 DMA at 1.3241. AUD/USD meanwhile inches closer towards the 0.7200 mark (vs. current low 0.7157), with its 21 and 50 DMAs residing at 0.7201 and 0.7207 respectively. Finally, NZD/USD remains contained in a narrow 0.6631-54 band as AUD/NZD reclaims 1.0800.
In commodities, WTI and Brent futures open the week on a firmer footing, with early strength coinciding with gains across stock markets overnight after Friday’s pessimism unwound amid weekend reports that US President Trump could be at the white house as early as today. Meanwhile, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh reportedly escalated dramatically. It was also reported that the Nagorno-Karabakh region stated that 18 civilians were killed and over 90 were wounded in a week of fighting – with traders keeping eyes on any potential targeting of oil fields/refineries/ports of the OPEC+ member. Elsewhere, Libyan oil production ticked higher to 290k BPD from last week’s 270k BPD, according to sources. In terms of where we currently stand WTI Nov (USD 37/bbl) trades on either side of USD 38/bbl whilst Brent Dec reclaimed the USD 40/bbl handle (vs. low USD 39.14/bbl). Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are choppy, with earlier weakness in the yellow metal offset by a softer Dollar, with prices now back around the USD 1900/oz mark (vs. low 1887/oz), whilst spot silver attempted a breach of USD 24/oz to the upside – with the latest CFTC data suggesting hedge funds and money managers reduced positions in COMEX gold and increased them in silver contracts in the week to Sept 29th. Finally, LME copper prices are relatively flat having had drifted off highs in tandem with price action seen in stocks.
US Event Calendar
- 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 54.6, prior 54.6
- 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 54.4
- 10am: ISM Services Index, est. 56.2, prior 56.9
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I can almost certainly guarantee that wherever you’re reading this from you had better weather than me this weekend. Or at least no worse. It rained from start to finish. Any weekend with the golf course closed is a bad one for me and watching Frozen 2 the twentieth time in two months to fill the time didn’t improve the mood. Then the coup de grace was seeing Liverpool concede 7 (seven – as they always used to type out and put in brackets for unusual scores) for the first time since 1963 last night! Quite astonishing.
The business world continues to be quite extraordinary at the moment too and Mr Trump again dominated the weekend headlines. I’m sure you’ve seen the conflicting and confusing reports concerning his health over the weekend so we won’t go into that here. The latest from yesterday was that his doctors suggested he could be released back to the White House as soon as today. He also appeared on a video last night looking in good spirits. According to the wires this has helped S&P 500 futures to trade up +0.61% this morning but to be honest it could also be because a poll showed that Biden was 14pp up over the weekend (more below). We actually published the EMR almost an hour earlier than usual on Friday and four minutes after it hit inboxes the headlines came through that the President had tested positive. So we will try not to be that efficient again and end up as virtual fish and chip paper as we were on Friday.
In terms of the impact on the election, we haven’t seen enough polling to assess whether this increases or decreases his chances of winning. There was an NBC-WSJ poll released over the weekend showing Biden ahead by 14 points – the biggest lead of the campaign. However this polling was carried out between the first debate last Tuesday and the positive Covid test early on Friday morning. For comparison the last poll from this combination saw at 8pp lead last month. An Ipsos and a YouGov poll have just been released before we go to print and they seem to show around a 10pp and 7pp lead for Biden respectively. These were conducted on Friday and Saturday.
This confirms what was suspected last week, namely that polls were edging further towards Biden even before Friday with the first evidence now coming through that this may have continued. Indeed the recent price action suggests that the market wants certainty more than anything else. Given the realistic options (assuming the polls are not completely out), perhaps the market would currently most like a Democratic clean sweep as this would increase the likelihood of near term certainty. This outcome was edging up in likelihood amongst respected political pundits ahead of Mr Trump’s positive test so Friday’s news brought back all sorts of uncertainties with tail risks increasing in all sorts of direction. The fact that Biden tested negative later in the day seemed to help markets which partly supports the theory above. So this week the market will await more news from the Trump camp and signs of movement in the polls. If Biden pulls away then markets will probably be pretty relaxed. So the batch of polls post Trump’s illness are going to be important.
As we’ll see below the VP debate takes place on Wednesday which is the next major planned event. We’ll also see what the latest on the stimulus package is. It feels like both sides are trying to show that they are doing the best they can to bridge the gap but the reality is that both sides seem to be quite far apart still and it will be an enormous feat to bridge the gap pre-election. Nonetheless, the FT reported yesterday that the US President Donald Trump has issued a call for negotiators to “work together” and complete a deal.
Overnight, Asian markets have started the week on front foot with the Nikkei (+1.20%), Hang Seng (+1.46%), Kospi (+1.18%) and Asx (+2.47%) all seeing strong advances and recovering from Friday’s morning’s shock. China’s markets are closed for holidays. In Fx, the US dollar is trading down -0.11%. In terms of overnight data, Japan September services PMI was confirmed at 46.9 (vs. 45.6 in flash).
Back to politics and onto Brexit. U.K. PM Johnson had the planned VC talk with EC President von der Leyen on Saturday and in a joint statement they instructed their chief negotiators to work intensively in order to try to bridge the obvious gaps that there are and emphasised “the importance of finding an agreement, if at all possible”. On Sunday Johnson reaffirmed that he’d like a deal but said the U.K. could prosper without one. The FT also had an article last night suggesting Barnier is going to hold talks with the impacted EU countries on fisheries which shows some progress and the possibility of negotiation movement. For me it seems like the probabilities of a deal have edged up over the last couple of weeks. In terms of news flow and headlines it’s seems to have been 7 steps forward and only 5 back. We will see. Sterling is broadly flat this morning at 1.2938 ahead of another week of talks.
Onto the virus and the UK reported an extremely high 35,850 new cases over the weekend but these were heavily impacted by around 16,000 previous unreported cases between September 25 to October 2 due to technical issues. Even after taking this into account the new weekend cases stood at 19,850, a higher run rate compared to previous weekends. Meanwhile, the delay in entering those 16,000 cases also means that their recent contacts were not immediately followed up. This will put more pressure on the government.
Bloomberg is also reporting that France may shut down bars in the Paris region and impose other new restrictions in the area. The country reported 29,537 new cases this weekend versus an average of c.25,000 cases over the previous two. In the US, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said he plans to close schools and non-essential businesses in nine neighbourhoods in Brooklyn and Queens where there’s been a surge in coronavirus infections. Indoor and outdoor dining will also be closed in these areas. For more details on how the virus is spreading in major regions of the world see the table below. There are a lot of footnotes so please see those in conjunction with the raw data. On the vaccine front, the FT reported the UK government’s head of the vaccine taskforce Kate Bingham as saying that less than half of the UK population could be vaccinated. She said, “There is going to be no vaccination of people under 18. It’s an adult-only vaccine for people over 50, focusing on health workers, care home workers and the vulnerable.”
In terms of this week, outside of the VP debate on Wednesday we’ll get the latest minutes from recent Fed (Weds) and ECB (Thurs) meetings, and also hear from both Fed Chair Powell (tomorrow) and ECB President Lagarde (tomorrow and Weds). The only G20 decision next week is from the Reserve Bank of Australia tomorrow. Our Australia economists expects no change in policy, but we will be watching for clues about whether a rate cut might yet be delivered by the end of the year. The main data highlight will likely be the release of the services and composite PMIs from around the world. Most are today but the U.K. comes tomorrow and China’s on Thursday after holidays. The flash readings showed clear signs of the services sector in Europe being affected by the second wave of Covid-19, with the flash Euro Area services PMI falling to 47.6, which is below the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction, with both Germany (49.1) and France (48.5) also in contractionary territory. We will see if this trend is confirmed and whether there was any late month deterioration from the initial flash reading. The day by day week ahead calendar is at the end.
Recapping last week now, as we moved into Q4, US equities saw their first positive week since August even with a weaker end of Friday. In a particularly hectic week that started with one of the most raucous US Presidential debates in memory and ended with the sitting US President testing positive for Covid-19 equity volatility jumped. The VIX volatility index rose +1.25pts to 27.63 even as equity prices rose – it was the second largest weekly rise in vol since June. Even with this uncertainty, the S&P 500 rose +1.52% (-0.96% Friday) on the week, breaking a streak of four losing weeks – the longest since August 2019. The NASDAQ rose +1.48% (-2.22% Friday) for the second weekly gain. European equities rose as well with the Stoxx 600 ending the week +2.02% (+0.25% Friday), the third weekly gain out of the last four. The IBEX (+1.90%), FTSE 100 (+1.02%), and CAC (+2.01%) all posted strong weekly equity performances even as their home countries reinstated some restrictions in the face of increasing Covid-19 caseloads.
The dollar dropped (-0.84%) as risk assets generally gained, for just its second weekly loss since the end of August. The drop in the dollar saw gold gain +2.06%, as the precious metal finished the week just under the $1900/oz level. Even though equities gained on the week, oil did not follow suit as worries on global demand saw WTI (-7.95%) and Brent crude (-6.32%) fall sharply and is now down four out of the last five weeks and is at its lowest weekly close since June. Core sovereign bonds were mixed on the week as US 10yr Treasury yields rose +4.6bps (+2.3bps Friday) to finish at 0.701% and 10yr Gilt yields rose +5.7bps (+1.2bps Friday) to 0.25%, while 10yr Bund yields were down -0.7bps (unchanged Friday) to -0.54%. Italian 10yr yields fell -10.2bps to 0.784% – their lowest levels since an all-time low last September.
On the data front, US Nonfarm payrolls rose by 661k (vs. 859k expected) on Friday while August’s numbers were revised up to 1.49 million from 1.37m. The unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 7.9% (vs. 8.2 expected), though the labour-force participation rate declined by 0.3 points to 61.4%. Meanwhile in Europe, the Euro-area CPI reading showed inflation slowed to -0.3% in August (vs. -0.2% expected) while the core rate set a six-year low at 0.2% (0.4% expected).
3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 308.73 OR 1.32% /The Nikkei closed UP 282.24 POINTS OR 1.23%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 2.54%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 38.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and 40.71 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7300 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19 : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA
South Korea
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 C CHINA
CHINA/USA
Giuliani: correctly states that he holds China response for what happened to Trump
(Ivan Pentchoukov/EpochTimes)
Giuliani: I Hold China Responsible For What Happened To Trump
Authored by Ivan Pentchoukov via The Epoch Times,
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani on Sunday said he holds China responsible for President Donald Trump becoming infected with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) virus, commonly known as the novel coronavirus.
Giuliani, the president’s personal attorney, made the comment in an interview with Fox News on Oct. 4.
“Don’t be paralyzed, please, our economy has to come back for the good of our children,” Giuliani said in reference to how Americans should deal with the risk of the virus.
“And we assert ourselves as the most powerful nation on earth because otherwise you know who will? The country that attacked us, China. And they attacked us with this, believe me,” Giuliani said.
“I hold them responsible for what happened to my president the day before yesterday and everybody else.”
The CCP virus outbreak began in Wuhan, China, in late 2019. The CCP’s attempts to cover up the contagion and the regime’s overall negligence contributed to the global outbreak of the virus. Trump regularly refers to the virus and the “China virus.”
The president has said that the United States will make China pay a “very substantial” price for its role in the outbreak, but official actions have so far been limited to a travel ban meant to stop the spread of the disease and the freezing of the trade talks.
“There are a lot of ways you can hold them accountable,” Trump said on April 27. “We are not happy with China, we are not happy with that whole situation. Because we believe it could have been stopped at the source, it could have been stopped quickly and it wouldn’t have spread all over the world.”
Giuliani said he spoke to the president on Saturday for 35-40 minutes about his health and politics. Trump passed Giuliani messages to his reelection campaign.
“I had to kind of get him off the phone so he went back and rested. He did say that he’d love to get out as quickly as possible,” Giuliani said.
“He feels like he could go out now. He said he felt pretty bad the first day, but now he feels, for the last 24 hours—and that was 3 o’clock yesterday—he felt perfectly fine. No fever. A little tired but not very tired. For him to feel a little tired is nothing.”
Prior to the president testing positive, Giuliani spent hours in a room with Trump and two others who had also tested positive—White House advisor Kellyanne Conway and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Giuliani said he tested negative for the virus on Friday and that he plans to get tested again on Monday.
The former New York City mayor told Fox News that he advised Trump to listen to the doctors and take a break from campaigning while supporters and allies fill for him on the campaign trail.
“Those of us who love him and care about him, makes you want to cry to think of what they’ve done to him. Every single day he’s been in the White House, they tried to get him out. From the day he started until now. I mean, last week Nancy Pelosi wanted to impeach him because he nominated judge [Amy Coney] Barrett,” Giuliani said, mentioning the House Speaker.
“They have tortured this man and he’s accomplished more than any president I can remember, so maybe he’s entitled to a little rest and I said to him, ‘You’ve got a lot of friends, they’re all calling me, they all want to go out and help you. You know, we can’t campaign as well as you can, but we can campaign,’” Giuliani said.
END
CHINA/USA
Why Is Nobody Talking About This…
Far be it from us to try and ruffle feathers on a Sunday, but the inescapable reality of the events over the last four days continues to nag at us; and in news that should come as a surprise to nobody, reality isn’t being covered by the mainstream media.
The uncomfortable reality of the situation is that the President of the United States – arguably the most powerful man on the planet – has contracted COVID-19 and, for one reason or another, it is serious enough for him to put in a semi-permanent stay at Walter Reed Medical Center.
To say that the sitting President of the United States isn’t in a more vulnerable or precarious state than normal would simply be false. Ergo, to some degree, the country is also in a slightly more precarious and vulnerable state, despite numerous well thought out succession plans.
From there, one has to examine exactly how the President of the United States wound up being in a situation where he has been compromised.
As we have reported on this site numerous times (here, here and here), there is a growing mountain of evidence – aside from simply common sense – that COVID-19 may have not have originated from bats; but instead was altered, engineered, or created at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. (As a reminder, for our efforts in trying to discover the truth – and have civil discourse around one of the biggest issues of our time – we were rewarded by being ‘mistakenly’ banned from Twitter for months.)
Then there was this “rogue” Chinese virologist who published a paper just weeks ago that contained “smoking gun” evidence that the virus was man made. For her thoughts, she was also promptly kicked off Twitter.
Given this information, the uncomfortable reality may be that there is a greater than zero chance that a Chinese made virus may be in the process of dethroning a sitting US president.
And while the rest of the mainstream media is busy trying to find conflicting reports between Trump’s doctors about meaningless minutiae and gleefully detailing succession plans for what would happen if Trump was incapacitated, nobody appears to have the guts, bravery or plain old common sense to examine and question what could be the uncomfortable reality of the situation.
Based on the mainstream media‘s handling of the Wuhan Institute of Virology story, we aren’t especially confident that anybody will ever broach the subject. But at some point in the future, we’re going to look back and it’s going to be crystal clear to us that a Chinese-made virus – or at the very least a virus-born-out-of-China – has nearly incapacitated a sitting US president.
There are tons of conspiracy theories that can run amok from here, none of which we will entertain at this point.
But one great question is whether or not US media is so enamored with communism that they will dispense with the patriotic duty of at least considering this scenario, when it could be one of the most important issues many generations face during their lifetime.
We hope we’re wrong about everything.
Get well soon, Mr. President.
end
This will get Trump furious: our famous whistleblower from Hong Kong reports that her mother has been arrested in China. If China has nothing to hide this is not the way to seek retribution. As many of you know, I am in the camp that the virus is man made coming from the lab in Wuhan next to the fish market.
(zerohedge)
COVID Whistleblower’s Mother Reportedly Arrested In China
The mother of Dr. Li-Meng Yan, a Chinese MD/PhD virologist who fled China and published evidence that COVID-19 was created in a lab, says that the Chinese Communist Party has arrested her mother.
“According to Mr. Miles Guo, the CCP arrested Dr. Limeng Yan’s mother in mainland China, allegedly as a retribution on Dr. Yan, the Hong Kong virologist, Chinese Whistleblower and CCP COVID-cover-up debunker,” reports gnews.org – which has been described as “Guo’s media outlet.”
Guo made the comments during an appearance alongside former Trump strategist Steve Bannon on an episode of “War Room Pandemic.”
Last month, Yan appeared on Fox News, where she told host Tucker Carlson that COVID-19 is a “Frankenstein” virus designed to target humans, and that it was intentionally released.
“It could never come from nature,” she Yan – who worked with coronavirus at the University of Hong Kong
“There is evidence left in the genome” – which Yan detailed in a 26-page scientific paper co-written with three other Chinese scientists. “They don’t want people to know this truth. Also, that’s why I get suspended [from Twitter], I get suppression. I am the target that the Chinese Communist Party wants disappeared.”
When Carlson asked her why she believes the virus made it’s way out of the Wuhan lab, Dr. Yan said “I worked in the WHO reference lab, which is the top coronavirus lab in the world at the university of Hong Kong. And the things I got deeply into such investigation in secret from the early beginning of this outbreak – I had my intelligence through my network in China, involved in the hospitals, institutes and also government.”
“Together with my experience, I can tell you – this is created in a lab.”
Dr. Yan fled Hong Kong on April 28 on a Cathay Pacific flight to the United States. She believes her life is in danger, and that she can never go back home.
China Complains Trump’s TikTok Ban Violates WTO Rules
A federal judge may have temporarily stopped the Trump Administration from unilaterally shutting down TikTok’s business in the US, but the Trump Administration’s battle with the company isn’t over yet, though Bloomberg reported a few days ago that the TikTok issue will likely take a back seat until after Election Day, leaving the company free to operate as normal – at least for now.
But as Trump’s trip to Walter Reed shakes up not just the campaign but the prospects for a stimulus deal and other items on the administration’s agenda, Beijing is asserting that Trump’s attempt to give China a taste of its own medicine – as some have described it – violates WTO rules.
Reuters reports that during a closed-door meeting at the WTO involving representatives from both China and the US, China’s representative complained that Trump’s heavy handed tactics violate WTO trade rules.
The fact that the White House hasn’t produced any evidence that TikTok has transmitted private data on American users to Beijing – a claim that’s central to the admin’s argument for banning the app on “national security” grounds – shows that the administration is in the wrong.
A representative for China said at the closed-door meeting on Friday that the measures “are clearly inconsistent with WTO rules, restrict cross-border trading services and violate the basic principles and objectives of the multilateral trading system,” a trade official familiar with the matter, who did not wish to be identified, said.
The official said the delegate described the U.S. failure to provide concrete evidence of the reasons for its measures a “clear abuse” of rules.
The US representative at the meeting pushed back.
In the same meeting, the United States defended its actions, saying they are intended to mitigate national security risks, the trade official said. The government has previously said data from American users is being accessed by the Chinese government.
The office of the U.S. Trade Representative had no immediate comment. An official at the Chinese mission to the WTO did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Chinese statement will not have any consequences on its own although China could launch an official legal complaint about it to the Geneva body.
While this doesn’t necessarily mean that China will pursue another action against the US via the WTO if Trump doesn’t drop his pursuit of TikTok, it’s certainly a possibility. And it wouldn’t be the first time China has manipulated the international trade body to Beijing’s advantage.
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Extremely important: Europe’s furloughed jobs disguise the real problem in Europe; massive unemployment
a must read..
Daniel Lacalle
Furloughed Jobs Disguise The Eurozone Employment Crisis
The United States jobs recovery slowed down slightly in September, but the employment recovery is still faster than in most comparable economies. The jobs report showed a healthy 661,000 gain in non-farm payrolls last month. Much of the difference with consensus came from shifts in government payrolls, which fell 216,000 in September. However, private payrolls rose by a healthy 877,000. This means that unemployment may have fallen below the 8.1% level in September.
In Europe, according to Eurostat, the unemployment rate increased to 7.4% in August, while in the euro area it rose to 8.1%. However, more than 10 million workers remain in furloughed jobs, making the comparison with the United States, that does not have that scheme of subsidised unemployment, a challenge.
In similar terms, the Eurozone unemployment would be close to 11% if we used the same calculation as the United States. The OECD estimates that unemployment will rise above 10% in the eurozone before year-end as furlough schemes end.
Eurostat said it estimates that over 15.6 million people in the EU and around 13.2 million in the euro area were unemployed in August. Compared with July, the number of unemployed increased by 238,000 in the EU and 251,000 in the euro area.
The furloughed jobs schemes have been one of the most important policies implemented by the European nations in the Covid-19 crisis. They aim to protect jobs for a few months while businesses recover their activity. These schemes were designed to allow companies to pass what was expected to be a short and almost painless crisis of two, maybe three months. Now, many European nations face a double problem. Many of the companies that signed for these furloughed job schemes face bankruptcy as the economic crisis has been longer and more damaging to the business fabric than governments expected. With almost one in five companies in Europe facing substantial losses and many close to bankruptcy, a significant part of these furloughed jobs will simply become full unemployment. In Germany, an economy that has recovered faster than all its European peers, around one million workers remained in these subsidised schemes after almost six months of re-opening the economy.
In Germany, the government has also implemented a “bailout of everything” policy to keep the zombie businesses alive. According to the FT, almost 500,000 businesses in Germany can be considered zombie (unable to pay their interest expenses with operating profits). If the crisis remains for more months, as it seems, the cost of furloughed jobs will be unbearable for governments and the employment drama will unravel just at the time in which the insolvency issues start to appear in banks and companies.
Furloughed job schemes only work as a temporary measure if strong policies to protect the business fabric and strengthen the private economy are implemented at the same time. Unfortunately, many governments in Europe like the Spanish, where unemployment is 16.2% even without counting furlough schemes, have only used these programs to “hide” unemployment and no significant measure has been implemented to help businesses thrive, attract capital and strengthen job creation.
Many problems remain in Europe. The cost of creating a job is extremely high, with a high tax wedge on labor. Additionally, few of the tax and administrative burdens to business creation have not been lifted in this crisis. Finally, in many cases, populists governments have threatened investment and job creation instead of incentivizing capital attraction.
Thousands Protest Against German COVID-19 Restrictions
Thousands of demonstrators in southern Germany protested the federal government’s new social distancing restrictions over the weekend, reported Reuters.
Demonstrators were seen in Konstanz, a city on Lake Constance, in southern Germany, on Saturday and Sunday, were displeased by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s new restrictions to limit the size of gatherings.
“We want to act regionally, specifically and purposefully, rather than shutting down the whole country again – this must be prevented at all costs,” Merkel told a virtual news conference on Tuesday.
Merkel said she wants to avoid a full national lockdown as infection numbers are rising again in Europe’s largest economy. The lockdown from earlier this year crushed Germany’s economy into the worst recession on record, decimating small and medium-sized businesses.
Police said counter-demonstrators were also seen in Konstanz. These folks showed their support for the government’s virus response efforts to mitigate further spreading.
Between both groups, police said upwards of tens thousand demonstrators hit the streets over the weekend. By Sunday afternoon, the situation remained calm in southern Germany.
“So far, the situation is calm,” a police spokesman said.
Reuters said, “civil rights activists, anti-vaxxers, neo-Nazis and members of far-right groups, including the opposition party Alternative for Germany (AfD), were in attendance” this weekend.
Germany’s total cases surpassed 300,000 on Sunday as the reproduction value rose above 1.0 for the first time in about a week. Health Minister Jens Spahn recently announced new plans for rapid tests in critical areas, such as hospitals and nursing homes.
The latest resurgence in virus cases has been challenging for Germany to reopen its economy, resulting in a waning economic recovery.
Germany is not alone in rising cases. France, the UK, and Spain face a similar threat in rising infections, crushing virus-induced recessions, and increasing resistance to tougher social distancing measures.
Approval of virus strategies to mitigate the spread is severely waning in the UK, France, and Spain.
The longer the virus persists, and the more tougher governments become, the increasing chance social unrest could spark up again this fall.
The SEC Is Making Deutsche’s CEO Personally Responsible For Bank’s Crimes
Since launching its last major international expansion push in the late 1990s, Deutsche Bank has become known – particularly over the last ten years – for manipulating markets (most recently in the precious metals “spoofing” scandal in the US) and aiding countless oligarchs and criminals in their money laundering endeavors, among other transgressions. The bank has paid more than $20 billion in fines to various regulators around the world over the last 10 years, and as Wirecard blew up, it was revealed that the German fintech graud nearly swallowed up Deutsche in an attempt to disguise the massive hole in Wirecard’s balance sheet.
The bank is also in the middle of the biggest bloodletting of a major financial institution since Lehman, with the bank expected to cut more than 20,000 jobs from its head count.
But on Sunday, Bloomberg published a story that caught our attention because it promised something so far in the post- (and pre-) financial crisis world: the notion that a megabank CEO might find themselves in silver bracelets if the bank gets caught laundering money for drug cartels, or ripping off pension funds, etc…
President Trump’s SEC, not exactly reknowned for taking corporate malfeasance to task, has imposed a new condition on Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing. The CEO must now, on an annual basis, personally certify that the bank is abiding by an agreement with the federal government stemming from alleged violations of swaps reporting rules.
According to Bloomberg, DB sought a waiver from the DoJ at the end of last month to settle the swaps violations. But when approached, the SEC surprised Deutsche by adding an unexpected stipulation: that the bank’s CEO and top attorney personally vouch that the bank is complying with its commitments to US prosecutors.
The SEC in almost every case grants firms waivers that exempt them from additional punishments, but Deutsche Bank didn’t immediately realize it needed one. That kicked-off a flurry of behind-the-scenes negotiations between Deutsche Bank and the SEC, with the lender ultimately securing its crucial waiver on Sept. 24.
What makes the Deutsche Bank situation stand out is the harsh stipulation that the SEC attached: The bank’s CEO and top lawyer must personally attest to the firm’s compliance with the CFTC settlement for three years.
It’s debatable whether Sewing, who became CEO in 2018, faces much legal peril. He would likely only face consequences if he certified that Deutsche Bank was complying with the CFTC settlement and the bank wasn’t. Still, financial firms are typically loath to offer regulators concessions that put top management at risk.
In its request for an SEC waiver, Deutsche Bank said it has an established process for assessing the collateral consequences of settling enforcement actions. However, the possibility of the additional SEC penalty wasn’t considered, the firm said in its application. Deutsche Bank added that the alleged CFTC violations were unintentional and completely unrelated to its mutual fund business.
Both of the SEC’s Republican commissioners and its two Democrats approved the waiver with the certification requirement, according to a tally of votes on the agency’s website. SEC Chairman Jay Clayton, a political independent, didn’t participate in the vote.
Here’s some more information.
The SEC move applies to anyone who holds the CEO position. What prompted it was a June case from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — the main U.S. regulator of the $559 trillion global swaps market. The CFTC had penalized Deutsche Bank $9 million over a 2016 outage that prevented the firm from disclosing swaps data for five straight days.
In the months after the breakdown, Deutsche Bank agreed to the appointment of an outside monitor to ensure its compliance with swaps reporting rules due to the “breadth of the failures” involving its systems, supervision and disaster-recovery plan, the CFTC said in a June 18 statement. The regulator said the fine was substantially reduced based on Deutsche Bank’s cooperation, including its consenting to the monitor.
Deutsche Bank, which didn’t admit or deny the CFTC’s claims, said in June that it had taken “meaningful steps” to enhance its controls.
As often happens under U.S. financial rules, Deutsche Bank’s CFTC settlement triggered automatic, knock-on penalties at the SEC. One of the additional sanctions was severe: DWS Group, the asset management firm that is majority-owned by Deutsche Bank, was at risk of losing its ability to manage mutual funds. A DWS spokesman said the situation never affected its business.
Amusingly, Bloomberg speculated that this type of enforcement might grow more common with Biden in office, as the party’s progressive wing struggles to push him further to the left.
The constraint, imposed last week by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, poses a fresh risk for bank executives whose firms break the rules — a longstanding goal of progressive lawmakers and policy makers. Such demands from regulators could become more common should Democrat Joe Biden win the White House and install new enforcers at federal agencies that police Wall Street.
Of course, Bloomberg said nothing about President Trump stepping up to hold the bank’s accountable.
Though they refused to speculate on the waiver, which came from the SEC, a spokeswoman for the CFTC, another US regulator in charge of financial derivatives, said “personal accountability is critical when seeking to ensure that a registrant has the right tone at the top and a strong culture of compliance.”
Of course, while DB is being singled out here, it’s not the only megabank to treat settlements and other punitive measures as merely a cost of doing business: America’s biggest, most reputable banks are routinely fined and punished by regulators.
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
AZERBAIJAN/ARMENIA/TURKEY
Azerbaijan forces take largest city: Karabakh as drones strike inside Armenia. Azerbaijan is backed by Turkey
(SouthFront)
Iranian Fuel Seized By US For Venezuela ‘Sanctions-Busting’ Discharges In New York
Recall that in July the US seized 1.1 million barrels of Iranian fuel aboard four privately owned tankers that had been bound for Venezuela. This after a federal court deemed the move was lawful in accord with sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.
That confiscated gasoline was previously bound for Houston, according to top US administration official statements; however, it was recently rerouted, with at least half of it discharged in New York on Thursday.
Vessel tracking data shows that the Singapore-flagged Maersk Progress unloaded its cargo there, estimated at 557,000 barrels of gasoline, according to Reuters.
“The Maersk Progress was due to arrive in Houston last month, but changed its route. Euroforce, a second tanker carrying some of the seized cargo, has been off the coast of Texas since Sept. 9,” Reuters writes.
Meanwhile the private owners of four Iranian fuel cargoes are attempting to sue and get the seizure ruling overturned in US District Court, basing their argument primarily on claims that the customers are in Peru and Colombia, and not blacklisted Maduro’s Venezuela.
Meanwhile, officials in Tehran recently mocked the whole episode, claiming the seized fuel was not Iran’s at all, stating that it had already been sold to international customers.
Even as the alleged Iranian fuel was being discharged in New York, Venezuela hailed a separate “victory” this past week :
Two Iranian fuel tankers have reportedly reached Venezuela with a third ship set to dock soon. Their arrival constitutes a success for the two nations sanctioned by the United States following an August seizure of such fuel.
The Iran-flagged ship Forest reached a Venezuelan port Tuesday. A second Iranian ship, the Fortune, entered Venezuelan waters Wednesday. The Forest brought 275,000 barrels of gasoline, The Associated Press reported.
A third Iranian ship, the Faxon, is expected to arrive this weekend; the three are collectively carrying around 815,000 barrels of fuel in total, the AP said.
More such maneuvering and controversy regarding cargo on the high seas is expected in the coming months, given Iran and Venezuela’s deepening trade and military ties.
6.Global Issues
Amazing: Dutch Government orders you must wear a mask!
Chief Scientist: “do not bother”
(Meijer//Automatic Earth)
Dutch Govt: “Wear A Mask!”; Chief ‘Scientist’ – Don’t Bother!
Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,
Though I don’t follow the news in the Netherlands much, I happened to see something the other day that I think is a “beautiful” example of why so many countries get their “measures” wrong, their lockdowns, facemasks etc.
First of all, they all screwed up their initial lockdowns, which pretty much were March-June all over. And second lockdowns are more something they like to threaten people with than actually considered options. Unless things really get out of hand, if for instance numbers of deaths suddenly increase a lot, but given the change towards infections occurring in much younger people than before, that is not likely. Plus, of course, no-one wants even more economic damage.
And now what you see is the politicians don’t know what to do anymore. They turn to “their scientists” again, but many have before given advice that is different from what they say now, that hasn’t worked, and that often contradicts what their colleagues in other countries say. And so everyone starts blaming “the people”.
But the people have mostly obeyed the lockdowns and become experts themselves, or so they think, and seen them go nowhere. That makes the positions of politicians and “experts” much weaker than it was 6-7 months ago. It’s about credibility, and they’ve squandered it. Why “must we listen to the scientists” if that does us no good?
The Netherlands, like many European countries, is in a second wave that is seeing many more new daily cases than in spring. Partly due to more testing, but not entirely:
The number of deaths does not show a similar trend, which can be contributed to the infections mostly occurring in much younger people, and of course a better understanding in medical circles of the virus. However, hospitals are still filling up much faster than in June-July, and many younger people, too, end up with damaged brains, lungs, hearts etc.
This recent chart of the difference between August and September infection numbers throughout Europe is skewed because of the insane increases in Hungary and Georgia, but it shows that a 300% increase was entirely normal in that timeframe.
So what now?
The Dutch government came with a whole new set of measures starting October 2. Because people “don’t obey the rules”. And people increasingly say: maybe the rules are not right. By the way, facemasks are not mandatory there in stores and other public places, there is only an “urgent” government advice to wear them. That is different from many other nations. Here are the new measures per Google Translate:
- Work from home as much as possible.
- Receive up to 3 guests at home.
- Children up to and including 12 years are not included.
- You may meet with a group of 4 people.
- For example in a cinema or restaurant.
- Children up to and including 12 years are not included.
- A maximum of 30 people may be together in an indoor space.
- Children count.
- Cafes, bars and restaurants close at 10 p.m. You must be gone then. You can enter until 9 p.m.
- You provide your name and telephone number. If someone gets sick who has been in the restaurant or cafe, you will receive a call.
- You must make a reservation to visit a museum or library.
- Stores only allow customers if there is enough space.
- In supermarkets there will be special shopping hours for the elderly and the sick (people with poor health).
- People with a contact profession must register customers. For example hairdressers.
The first reaction that I have, and I’m sure I’m not the only one: Why 3 people as house guests and not 4? Why 4 people at a restaurant table and not 5, or 30 total in an indoor space? There are family members we haven’t seen since Christmas, but a birthday party is out?
Where do those numbers come from? Did you just make them up? Also, closing bars and restaurants at 10 pm is going to be the death knell for many of the few that are left. Is that worth it?
About that number of 4 people at a restaurant table, the next article from NLTimes about worries in the hospitality sector says that in neighboring Germany and Belgium, 10 people can sit at that same -or preferably a bigger- table. Are Dutch people supposed to drive to those countries if they have a party of 8?
Gov’t Advice To Wear Masks In Public Space Met With Skepticism
On Wednesday Prime Minister Mark Rutte issued the urgent advice for all Netherlands residents to wear masks in publicly accessible indoor spaces. This advice was met with skepticism, especially from the hospitality industry. Former RIVM director Roel Coutinho would rather have seen a mask obligation instead of advice.
Hospitality association KHN doubts whether the advice to wear masks in public makes sense, the association said in a press release. “The fact that there is still no scientific substantiation by the cabinet and RIVM about the proven usefulness of face masks certainly does not help to create and maintain support. Moreover, face masks still form an extra barrier to visiting establishments.”
If the government turns its advice into an obligation, the KHN wants the Netherlands to follow Germany and Belgium’s example. According to the association, in those countries up to 10 people are allowed at a restaurant table. “Then we will be open to it,” the association said. The KHN also wants extra financial support should masks become mandatory.
Roel Coutinho, who preceded Jaap van Dissel as head of public health institute RIVM, is pleased that the advice to wear masks indoors now applies to the whole of the Netherlands, but regrets that the government did not make it mandatory. “On the basis of all the literature, I am convinced that wearing a face mask is useful. But only advice makes it particularly difficult for people,” he said to Nieuwsuur. “An obligation, as is also happening in countries around us, gives everyone much more clarity.”
An obligation will also help the stores that have to enforce the face mask rule. “Because what exactly should those shops or supermarkets do?” Coutinho said. “Because it only concerns urgent advice, the responsibility now lies with shops, which makes it very difficult. An obligation is not always pleasant, but it is clear and easy to enforce.”
But the best part is the following, the initial piece that got me thinking about this.
Turns out that at the same moment the government issues an “urgent” advice to wear them, with a threat of making them mandatory, its chief Infectious Diseases expert, the Dutch Fauci, says he sees little benefit is wearing non-medical masks. As, ironically, Fauci, who used to say they were useless, now calls them very beneficial.
Google translate again:
Van Dissel Insists: Ordinary Face Masks Have Little Effect
The frequent use of masks in other countries, the pressure of public opinion in his own country, or even a direct appeal from his famous American counterpart Anthony Fauci: Jaap van Dissel sticks to his position. When asked, the director of Infectious Diseases at the RIVM repeats that, according to him, masks have “an exceptionally small effect” on the attempts to contain the spread of the corona virus. In an interview with the NOS, he calls the cabinet’s recent decision to urgently recommend masks in public indoor spaces, therefore primarily a political decision rather than one based on medical grounds.
Since the start of the corona crisis, Van Dissel has emphasized that he sees little benefit in wearing non-medical face masks, especially because it could evoke a sense of false security and possibly divert attention from other rules. Although he acknowledges that there are studies that signal a positive effect of face masks, he believes they are difficult to extrapolate to the corona crisis.
“For example, medical mouth masks were often used in those studies and measures such as the one and a half meters are not taken into account,” he explains. There are also studies that are less positive about masks, he says. “That leads us to consider that we have not given a positive advice about it. That is just the story. That another decision is taken, based on political considerations, that it should be so.”
In addition, according to Van Dissel, the alleged effectiveness of non-medical face masks is nothing compared to the usefulness of other measures such as keeping sufficient distance from each other, washing hands regularly and staying at home in case of complaints. Earlier this week, the Outbreak Management Team, the advisory body of the cabinet which Van Dissel chairs, made some adjustments to the advice on face masks for the first time.
For example, the OMT wrote that masks could be recommended in places where sufficient distance from each other cannot always be kept “such as in busy shops”. For the same reason, a mask has been mandatory in public transport since June. According to Van Dissel, the change in the OMT advice has nothing to do with a changed view of mouth masks, but more to do with people’s sense of safety. “Of course, as OMT, we have also realized that some people would prefer to wear a mouth mask. If someone feels safer, we are fine with that,” he says.
The government says: wear a mask, and its chief scientific adviser says: don’t bother. Great message. And people don’t miss that. I’ve said it before: every government today should have a generous supply of N95 masks ready. They don’t because their experts long said they were not necessary. While some keep claiming cloth masks are useful, but “more to do with people’s sense of safety”.
I don’t know about you, but all these people with these useless masks on where they’re not needed, like outside, don’t make me feel safe at all. They make me think I’m surrounded by fools. And is anyone going to believe that 4 at a table is better than 10? How can they when just across the border the opinion is so different? If you ask me, the time of being able to order your citizens around on what to do and what not, may be ending for many governments. And they have only themselves to blame.
The only realistic thing to do at this point appears to be to give people back their own responsibility. If only because taking it away from them didn’t work.
* * *
end
CORONVAVIRUS UPDATE/THE GLOBE MONDAY
Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Top 35 Million, But WHO Warns ‘10% Of Humanity’ May Already Be Infected: Live Updates
Summary
- New cases, deaths declined Sunday
- UK weighs 3-tiered lockdown system
- Ireland mulls raising alert level to maximum of “3” as cases climb
- France assigns Paris highest alert level
- Italian PM warned people may need to “give up more freedoms”
- European Commission President Ursula von der leyen quarantines after potential COVID exposure
- Iran sees record jump in new case
* * *
The MSM is suffering conniption fits over President Trump’s brief drive-by to greet supporters gathered outside Walter Reed early Sunday evening just as the number of confirmed cases in the US approaches 7.5 million, while the global tally tops 35 million.
But although NYC (with Gov Cuomo’s assent) is rolling back reopening measures in nine ‘hot spot’ zip codes in the outer boroughs, as NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio announced yesterday, the biggest news as the week begins is mostly coming out of Europe, where a Paris lockdown announced by French officials last week is coming into effect, while the UK weighs more localized lockdowns, as daily case tallies hit new records in countries around Europe.
As was foreshadowed last week, the French government is planning to shut down bars in Paris and the surrounding region, while imposing other new restrictions in the area as the country struggles to contain a spike of new coronavirus cases and avoid a second nationwide lockdown.
Paris and its inner suburbs will be declared a “maximum alert zone” on Monday, and new restrictions will take effect on Tuesday, lasting up to 15 days, according to a statement from the French Prime Minister’s Office. Restaurants were supposed to be impacted by the order, but a deal has been struck to allow restaurants in the greater Paris area to remain open so long as the restaurant collects contact details and promises to keep officials further apart.
Dance halls, fairs, sports facilities and swimming pools will close across the Paris region, while student and family gatherings in public establishments will be banned during the roughly 2-week period.
President Emmanuel Macron recently elevated Jean Castex to the position of prime minister earlier this year. Once the new measures are in place, France’s two largest cities will be on quasi-lockdown, though the official position of Macron’s government is that another ruinous national lockdown isn’t on the table.
France has seen the largest jump in new cases over the past two months, while virus-related deaths tripled in September.
More draft documents from HMG have leaked to the British press, as the Guardian reports on a new three-tiered lockdown system for England if present measures fail to get the coronavirus outbreak under control, according to the documents. Under the plan, a “Level 3” lockdown would mean that all hospitality and many otherbusiness would be required to close as residents would be barred from social contact outside their households.
As Ireland mulls imposing even more social distancing restrictions as its case numbers continue to grow, one expert highlighted the tightrope that European leaders must walk.
“Authorities have an extremely difficult job at the moment,” Martin Hirsch, head of Paris hospitals, said on France Info. “If we go too far we are accused of killing freedom or the economy, and if we don’t go far enough, it’s homicide.”
National health authorities in Ireland recommended the country move to a Level 5 lockdown, the highest level of shutdown, with most stores closed, household visits banned and limits placed on how far people can travel away from their homes. Most of the Republic of Ireland is at level 2, with Dublin at Level 3.
While the government is set to consider the recommendation in coming days, the surprise proposal is already running into resistance, amid concern that such a drastic step would devastate the nascent economic recovery.
Italian PM Giuseppe Conte warned that people may have to give up some liberties to combat the renewed spread of the coronavirus, as his government prepares to reimpose mask mandates on all public outdoor areas, along with indoor areas, where masks are currently mandated.
Italy reported 2,578 new cases on Sunday as a rebound in new cases continued to climb to their highest levels since the spring.
Finally, as the world criticizes President Trump for the alleged lapses that apparently led to him and First Lady Melania Trump being sickened, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is self-isolating after coming into contact with an individual who later tested positive.
In Geneva, Dr. Mike Ryan reportedly told the WHO’s executive board that as many as 1 in 10 people worldwide has probably caught COVID-19 by now, meaning the rest of the population is still pretty vulnerable.
“Our current best estimates tell us about 10% of the global population may have been infected by this virus. It varies depending on country, it varies from urban to rural, it varies depending on groups. But what it does mean is that the vast majority of the world remains at risk.”
“We are now heading into a difficult period. The disease continues to spread.”
Here’s some more important COVID-19 news from overnight and Monday morning.
35,504 new cases were reported in the US on Sunday, bringing the total to 7,418,836, as a post-LDW spike refuses to fade, and 9 states have reported record daily increases in the cases load in recent days. Though even still, India is on track to surpass the US in the coming weeks.
Globally, the number of new cases climbed to 35,231,182, rising by 173,379 cases on Sunday.
Deaths retreated on Sunday to just 2,861 new deaths, bringing the total to 1,037,914.
Iran has registered a record high 3,902 new coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours, with the total number of infections in the worst-hit country in the Middle East rising to 475,674, state TV reported. Health Ministry spokesperson Sima Sadat Lari told the television station that a record high 235 patients died in the past 24 hours, the same number of fatalities as on July 28 (Source: Nikkei).
The entire Malaysian cabinet has been asked to quarantine, including Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin after a minister tested positive for coronavirus. The minister attended a special COVID-19 cabinet meeting on Saturday, chaired by Muhyiddin, who subsequently released a statement saying that he had tested negative, but would quarantine for 14 days nonetheless. Malaysia recorded 432 cases on Monday, a record daily high (Source: Nikkei).
Russia’s daily case tally reaches higher than it has been since May 12 as authorities report 10,888 new infections, including 3,537 in Moscow. Authorities say 117 people died overnight, pushing the official death toll to 21,475. Total cases in the country now stand at 1,225,889 (Source: Nikkei).
7. OIL ISSUES
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….
Euro/USA 1.1755 UP .0041 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN
USA/JAPAN YEN 105.63 UP 0.408 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…
GBP/USA 1.2945 UP 0.0026 (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/
USA/CAN 1.3278 DOWN .0017 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 41 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1755 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED
//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 282.24 OR 1.23%
/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 2,54%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and Asia
EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 308.73 OR 1.32%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED
Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 2.54%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 282.24 POINTS OR 1.23%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1899.60
silver:$23.94-
Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.712% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.
The 30 yr bond yield 1.513 UP 3 IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 93.64 DOWN 21 CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.24% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.03.% UP 1 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.26 %//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.80 UP 1 point in basis points yield from yesterday./
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading .54 points higher than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.51% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//
THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.33% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1784 UP .0071 or 71 basis points
USA/Japan: 105.65 DOWN .029 OR YEN UP 3 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2970 UP .0052 POUND UP 52 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar UP 23 basis points to 1.3272
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The USA/Yuan,CNY: closed ON SHORE (x)..GETTING DANGEROUS
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.198 (YUAN up).
TURKISH LIRA: 7.77 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.03%
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 0.749 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.489 UP 3 in basis points on the day
Your closing USA dollar index, 93.87 down 6 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12;00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 40.82 0.69%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 139.27 POINTS OR 1.10%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 46.99 POINTS 0.02%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 83.40 POINTS or 1.23%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 201.20 POINTS OR 1.23%
WTI Oil price; 39.60 12:00 PM EST
Brent Oil: 41.57 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE FALLS: 78.42 THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.23 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 23 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO –.51 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price f0r Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM : 39.35//
BRENT : 41.45
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.771..up 7 basis points…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.580 up 9 basis points..
EURO/USA 1.1784 ( UP 72 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.74 UP .513 (YEN DOWN 50 BASIS POINTS/..
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.46 DOWN 38 cent(s)/
The British pound at 4 pm Britain Pound/USA:1.2983 UP 65 POINTS
the Turkish lira close: 7.76
the Russian rouble 78.16 UP 0.02 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 2 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.3262 DOWN 65 BASIS pts
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.52%
The Dow closed UP 465.83 POINTS OR 1.68%
NASDAQ closed UP 257.47 POIN3TS OR 2.32%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 28.13 CLOSED UP .50
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.233%//libor dropping like a stone
USA trading today in Graph Form
Stocks & Gold Jump, Bonds & The Dollar Dump As Election Fears Fade
It all feels a bit fragile…
But this appears to be the message from the markets…
It appears Trump catching COVID has sparked a relief compression in election anxiety priced into the volatility market…
Source: Bloomberg
And betting appears to be favoring Biden quite dramatically (bearing in mind of course that these illiquid markets can be moved by anyone with large pockets)…
Both of which ‘may’ explain why stocks were panic-bid at the cash open today (look at the insta-bid in Small Caps at the cash open). Stocks did roll over around 1300ET that Pelosi and Mnuchin had no stimulus deal today but then rebounded higher when Trump tweeted that he was leaving hospital today. Stocks then accelerated more on headlines that Pelosi and Mnuchin will exchange proposals this afternoon on the fiscal stimulus…and then finally dipped on rumors that GOP sources say a stimulus deal is doubtful…
This is the 7th day in a row of significant short-squeeze…
Source: Bloomberg
The 9%, 7-day surge is eerily in line with the 4 previous squeezes since June that have all run out of energy at this point…
Source: Bloomberg
Dow topped 28k, S&P topped 3400, and Nasdaq filled its gap down from last week…
NOTE that stocks (except Nasdaq) have erased the initial plunge loss on Trump’s COVID diagnosis…
Financials outperformed as the yield curve steepened…
Source: Bloomberg
And bonds were dumped (despite very mixed messages from PMI/ISM) especially the long-end (+8bps!)…
Source: Bloomberg
With 10Y Yields back above 76bps (6 week highs)…
Source: Bloomberg
And 30Y closed at its highest in 4 months, perfectly reaching its 200DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, gold spiked (is Biden and the left’s MMT a bigger fear?)…
Even as real yields surged (which empirically has not been good for the precious metal)…
Source: Bloomberg
But then again, the dollar did continues its recent renewed decline…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar broke and closed below its 50DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin continued its rebound today, testing $10,800 briefly…
Source: Bloomberg
Silver jumped back above $24.50…
Oil prices exploded higher today, but reversed after topping $39.50…
Finally, here’s some context for the “bond yield spike”…
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
MARKET TRADING//USA
a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA
b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls
ii)Market data/USA
SHEER GARBAGE!!
US Services Industry Slowed… And Accelerated… In September (You Decide)
After a mixed picture (though uniformly disappointing) in Manufacturing surveys, analysts expected US Services surveys to show further deterioration from their post-COVID rebound peak.
- Markit US Services 54.6 vs 54.6 flash vs 54.6 exp vs 55.0 prior
- ISM US Service 57.8 vs 56.2 exp vs 56.9 prior
So Markit fell and ISM rose in September – choose which one you believe!
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood of ISM Services:
- Business activity rose to 63.0 vs 62.4 prior month
- New orders rose to 61.5 vs 56.8
- Employment rose to 51.8 vs 47.9; the highest since February
- Supplier deliveries fell to 54.9 vs 60.5; the lowest level since February
- Inventory change rose to 48.8 vs 45.8
- Prices paid fell to 59.0 vs 64.2
- Backlog of orders fell to 50.1 vs 56.6
- New export orders fell to 52.6 vs 55.8
- Imports fell to 46.6 vs 50.8
- Inventory sentiment rose to 55.4 vs 52.5
ISM respondents were mostly optimistic:
“Business has been fairly stable over the summer; however, there is still a great deal of uncertainty as we move into fall and winter [and] how our sales volume will be.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
“Our industry is facing a bleak outlook, as the Hollywood studios have pulled back almost all of their content from October and November and moved it into next year. Coupled with the state health mandates restricting our attendance, we expect to operate at a loss in 2020 and 2021.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
“Work orders are improving rapidly. Lack of available labor is having a significant impact on our ability to fulfill orders.” (Construction)
“Insurance industry will experience some impact from weather- and protest-related property damage and business interruption.” (Finance & Insurance)
Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:
“The U.S. economy continued to rebound in September from the deep contraction seen at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, with business activity rising across both manufacturing and services to round off the strongest quarter since early-2019.
“Covid-19 worries and social distancing continued to impact many businesses, however, especially in consumer-facing sectors, where demand for services fell once again. However, business and financial services, healthcare and housing sectors all fared well as the economy continued to revive, and exports of services also picked up as other countries continued to open up their economies.
“Encouragingly, new orders for services grew at an increased rate in September, putting additional pressure on operating capacity and fuelling another robust rise in employment. A further rise in backlogs of work bodes well for robust jobs growth to be sustained into October.
However, the slowdown in the Composite Index suggests this may be as good as it gets for US economic growth’s rebound…
“Sentiment on prospects for the coming year darkened significantly, however, linked to growing worries about virus numbers, uncertainty regarding the presidential election and fears that the economy is susceptible to weakening unless more support measures are put in place soon.”
iii) Important USA Economic Stories
UPDATE/TRUMP/SATURDAY
A full accounting of all reports on Trump’s virus condition
(zerohedge)
Trump Urges Stimulus Deal Via Tweet As MSM Reports His Condition “Far More Dire” Than White House Says
Update (1530ET): Vanity Fair’s Gabriel Sherman, best known for breaking the story about the history of sexual abuse allegations against Roger Ailes, has just launched himself to the front of the pack of left-wing reporters reporting scurrilous rumblings about the president’s condition.
The “am I going out like Stan Chera?” line is almost too on the nose; perhaps it was said in jest.
Why is Trump doing all this? He doesn’t want to invoke the 25th amendment, which he could do voluntarily, or – if he’s incapacitated, like put on a ventilator – could be done by his cabinet working with Pence, without the president’s consent.
Such a transfer of power would be perfunctory and impermanent. And at any rate, if Trump’s condition truly does worsen to that point, it might become inevitable.
Meanwhile, at CNN.com.
* * *
Update (1420ET): Apparently, the fact that Dr. Conley’s memo included a prominent typo (it misspelled the name of the pharma company Regeneron) set off a fact-checking spree that has led Regeneron to issue another correction.
Thanks for clearing that up.
* * *
Update (1400ET): Dr. Conley has unsurprisingly confirmed the White House’s claims that he “misspoke” about Trump being 72 hours in, saying that Saturday is the start of Day 3, meaning Trump is 48 hours in.
Dr. Conley also reaffirmed that Trump was diagnosed Thursday night as the MSM continues to speculate that Trump either wasn’t tested right away after developing symptoms, or that he had concealed the true timing of his diagnosis until news of Hope Hicks’ infection hit.
* * *
Update (1355ET): President Trump is showing the world that the market isn’t far from his mind. While some on Wall Street have suggested that Trump’s illness could change the calculus for another stimulus deal, Mitch McConnell’s decision to shut down floor activity Saturday probably means that stimulus talks are effectively over for now, as the GOP’s Congressional leaders focus on their top priority: the Supreme Court.
But in a tweet sent minutes ago, Trump urged both sides to come together and get a deal done.
Expect more tweets like this one between now and 1800ET tomorrow.
* * *
Update (1340ET): Here’s the timeline from Dr. Conley’s press conference and the comments made yesterday that the White House is now trying to dispute.
We will likely learn more as the weekend drags on.
* * *
Update (1320ET): As the MSM pushes questions about Trump’s condition, the president has once again chimed in on Twitter to tweet that he’s “feeling well”.
Shortly before, CBS’s Paula Reid claimed the fact that the White House and Trump’s doctors apparently “can’t keep their stories straight”.
Trump’s backers are accusing the media of “sow doubt” about the president’s condition, while the press are insisting that the White House is trying to down play the severity of Trump’s sickness, and also possibly disguising the timeline of when Trump was infected, and when he first suspected that he might be infected.
* * *
Update (1300ET): The AP has just apparently “confirmed” what Dr. Conley suggested – but didn’t confirm ooutright – during this morning’s briefing: That Trump received supplemental oxygen at the White House on Friday.
- TRUMP WAS ADMINISTERED SUPPLEMENTAL OXYGEN AT THE WHITE HOUSE ON FRIDAY BEFORE GOING TO THE HOSPITAL : AP SOURCE
Dr. Conley said during the press briefing that Trump’s blood-oxygen level was 96% on Saturday, which is normal.
Here’s Ryan Lizza, seemingly confirming it.
Dr. Conley insisted earlier that as of Saturday morning, Trump’s oxygen levels were normal and he needed no assistance breathing.
Meanwhile, CNN is reporting that there are “more questions than answers” as Trump’s condition “remains unclear”.
* * *
Update (1255ET): The “anonymous” source of the note contradicting Dr. Conley’s report is suspected to be none other than White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, who was caught on video asking that some comments be given “off the record”.
LIKELY SOURCE OF THE ANONYMOUS INFO TO THE PRESS POOL ABOUT TRUMP’S CONDITION WAS CHIEF OF STAFF MARK MEADOWS
Another White House official also reportedly offered some “clarifications” of Dr. Conley’s timeline, which suggested that Trump had been diagnosed earlier than he had revealed.
To sum up: It looks like Trump’s inner circle are trying to minimize Trump’s condition as much as possible, likely to prevent markets from taking another panicked leg lower. Unfortunately, as we’ve seen time and time again, these attempts at pumping the market might pan out for a little while – but eventually, that debt to the truth is paid.
* * *
Update (1210ET): Just minutes after Trump’s doctors insisted the president is doing well and that his fever had disappeared, while refusing to confirm that Trump had been treated with oxygen (though their refusal to deny it clearly suggested that he had), Reuters led a flurry of anonymously sourced reports claiming the president’s condition is much worse than his team is letting on.
Reuters said Trump’s vital signs are in reality “very concerning” and that the next 48 hours will be “critical”.
CNBC’s Eamon Javers confirmed that an “odd note” from an anonymous administration official had been shared with the entire White House press pool. The note claimed Trump was more ill than the doctors had let on.
One Twitter wit noted that these kind of tactics are simply “not acceptable” right now.
Then there was this: White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows asking to speak to reporters “off the record” before allegedly giving “an entirely different account”.
The report added that the president was still not on the path to a full recovery. In other words, the description of his condition was a gross exaggeration by an administration determined to make the president look “strong” at all costs – because that’s clearly what Trump wants.
One reporter also noted that Dr. Conley ended the briefing when a reporter asked whether Trump had been treated with steroids.
Still, this isn’t exactly saying much. The White House is trying to make it seem like Trump is completely fine, the reality is probably closer to ‘the president is suffering from moderate flu-like symptoms’, but that’s still a far stretch away from requiring prone positioning and intubation.
* * *
Update (1150ET): Trump’s doctors have just concluded a lengthy press briefing offering updates about the president’s condition. The takeaway: Trump is doing “very well” and doesn’t currently have a fever although it appears he did briefly receive oxygen before he traveled to Walter Reed. Whether that was the catalyst for the decision to send him to the hospital remains to be seen.
CNN and the rest of the mainstream media are also going off about another tacit admission: While Dr. Conley didn’t offer many specifics about the timeline of Trump’s infection, he let slip that we’re approximately 72 hours in, which means Trump may have been infected for an entire day and a half before he informed the public about his condition.
Then again, because of Trump’s busy travel schedule, it’s possible he may have skipped some tests, like how he wasn’t tested before arriving at the debate on Tuesday.
* * *
Update (1130ET): As the press briefing from Trump’s medical team began, Chris Christie took to twitter to confirm that he is, in fact, COVID-19 positive. That was after he said so on Fox News earlier, then retracted it.
Will Rick Scott now do the same?
* * *
Update (1125ET): Amazingly, Chris Christie is now saying he “misspoke” during an appearance on Fox, and that he too also tested negative, not positive.
Apparently Chris Christie claims that he misspoke on Fox News this morning and tested negative not positive.
— Johnathan Ford (@FordJohnathan5) October 3, 2020
It’s the same misstake that Sen. Rick Scott made earlier this am.
* * *
Update (1100ET): Former NJ Gov. Chris Christie, who helped Trump with debate prep before his face off against Biden on Tuesday, has become the 25th person in Trump’s orbit to test positive.
Breaking: Chris Christie has tested positive for the coronavirus. Also 3 republican senators. It’s believed this outbreak was due to the Supreme Court pick celebration.
— Johnathan Ford (@FordJohnathan5) October 3, 2020
A reporter for ABC News just revealed that, according to their anonymous sources, the president is feeling “well rested”.
* * *
Update (1100ET): While we await the update from Dr. Conley, here’s an update on Fla. Sen. Rick Scott.
If you had Scott under the ‘positive’ column, please move him over to the ‘negative’ side.
Here’s a recap of all the meds Trump has received, according to his doctor and the White House.
* * *
Update (1050ET): As we await an update from President Trump’s doctor, Dr. Sean Conley, anxieties are spreading about Trump’s condition – that it might be worse than the White House is letting on – after initial denials about Trump’s condition turned out to be false.
In addition to Pence, Don Jr. said he has tested negative again Saturday morning.
Biden fired off another tweet urging Americans to wear their masks.
Meanwhile, Sen. Marco Rubio called for more transparency from the White House to help combat the spread of “conspiracy theories” and misinformation.
Hopefully, the medication and world-class treatment Trump is receiving will help him beat back the virus quickly.
* * *
Update (1015ET): VP Mike Pence (along with his wife, First Lady Karen Pence) has tested negative again Saturday morning, according to his office.
The VP is ready to take over the president’s duties, and according to the most recent statement from the campaign, Pence will take part in Wednesday’s VP debate in Salt Lake City.
Meanwhile, the administration’s critics insisted that Pence should quarantine and keep testing for at least another few days (though technically the quarantine period is 10 days. Both Pence and AG Bill Barr have tested negative, despite both having attended last Saturday’s potential “super spreader” event at the White House.
* * *
Update (1000ET): Trump’s doctor, Dr. Sean Conley, will deliver another update on the president’s condition at 1100ET, according to Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany.
* * *
There have been quite a few major developments in the White House COVID-19 outbreak late Friday and into the early hours of Saturday morning. When we last checked in, an anonymously sourced reports from NBC News claimed Trump had developed “shortness of breath” after arriving at Walter Reed.
That news followed reports that Thom Tillis, another member of the group of observers who attended a White House event on Saturday where Trump announced Judge Amy Coney Barrett as his nominee for the Supreme Court seat left by the deceased Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
Photos like this have circulated widely since Tillis became the 6th member of the group to test positive.
As of Saturday morning, 24 people have tested positive in the White House outbreak, as the number of infected staffers who attended the Cleveland debate climbed from 1 to 11.
1+2. President & Melania Trump
3. Bill Stepien, Trump campaign mgr
4. Hope Hicks
5. Kellyanne Conway
6. Sen. Ron Johnson
7. Sen. Mike Lee
8. Sen. Thom Tillis
9. Ronna McDaniel
10. Notre Dame Pres. Jenkins
11-13. Three WH reporters
14-24. Eleven staffers from Cleveland debate
But as the list above also reflects, three additional major figures in TrumpWorld have tested positive: Former White House advisor Kellyanne Conway, Trump Campaign Manager Bill Stepien, and Sen. Ron Johnson.
Johnson’s announcement hit just minutes ago on Saturday morning with a statement from his office.
He is the third GOP senator to test positive, and – like Lee and Tillis – he also attended Saturday’s event in the Rose Garden.
Preempted by her teenage daughter Claudia, who made headlines earlier this year by speaking out against both her parents before asking AOC to “adopt” her, Conway announced late Friday evening that she had tested positive, becoming at least the 10th person connected to the White House to contract the virus. Conway left the White House over the summer after her daughter’s outbursts created a national scandal. She has apparently become the 7th person to attend that event to also come down with the virus. Three White House reporters have also tested positive.
News of Conway’s diagnosis was preempted by her daughter Claudia, who once again took to TikTok to embarrass her mother, claiming in a series of videos that Kellyanne once told her “masks are stupid”. Claudia also implied her mother got them all sick “for that stupid Amy Coney Barrett thing”.
Meanwhile, George Conway, a longtime critic of Trump and the administration in which his wife serves, tweeted that he was “Livid” about the White House’s cavalier attitude toward the virus.
Though the investigation into the origins of the cluster is only just beginning, contact tracers appear to be focusing on Saturday’s White House event, which Vox News opined increasingly has the making of a “super spreader” event.
That would at the very least account for why no Democrats have gotten sick in the outbreak, since none of them were invited to the press conference. It would also suggest that Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi are probably in the clear. They’ve both already tested positive as of Friday.
But in a sign that the outbreak might already be spreading beyond Saturday’s gathering, Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien, who announced last night that all Trump campaign events involving the president and the first family would be cancelled, or transitioned to virtual format, has also tested positive. Stepien took the reins over the summer, taking over from Brad Parscale following the Tulsa comeback event disaster. One aide told Politico that Stepien was experiencing “mild flu-like symptoms”. They also reported that Stepien plans to quarantine until he recovers. Deputy Campaign Manager Justin Clark is expected to oversee the campaign from its Arlington Va. headquarters while Stepien works remotely.
With Stepien and GOP leader Ronna McDaniel sickened, two key players of Trump’s political machine are now out of commission.
Though he didn’t attend Saturday’s event in the Rose Garden, Stepien traveled to and from Cleveland for Tuesday’s presidential debate, and joined Trump and Hope Hicks aboard Air Force One. The campaign manager was also with the president in the White House on Monday.
Stepien’s role as campaign manager means participating in dozens of meetings per day. If he was contagious, then many more may need to quarantine, though top Trump cabinet officials including Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and AG Barr have already said they won’t quarantine.
All Trump campaign events through next week, when Trump was supposed to swing through the West, have been cancelled as everybody awaits more information on Trump’s condition.
Trump’s doctor released a statement late Friday claiming Trump was “doing well” and that he did not require any “supplemental oxygen”, though he was being treated with Gilead’s remdesivir.
Trump was also treated with a battery of anti-virals and other meds earlier in the evening as well.
Incidentally, the president set off a mini firestorm when he tweeted last night that he was doing “WelI” – with a capital “I” instead of an “L” – spawning a torrent of quasi-serious speculation that the president was sending a secret message by saying he was “going Weli”.
Some are going off the “A Beautiful Mind” deep-end.
At any rate, WSJ says White House contact tracers are scrambling to test hundreds of people who may have come into contact with those infected. Trump’s doctors insist that his hospital stay will only last “a few days” as a precaution.
Trump walked out of the White House Friday evening wearing a mask and gave a thumbs-up to reporters but did not speak before boarding Marine One at 1816ET and heading to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. Already, the Washington Post is reporting that Trump’s team made the “preemptive” decision so that he could be seen boarding the helicopter while he could still walk – an attempt to present an image of strength to the American people.
Still, White House communications director Alyssa Farah told reporters that there would be no transfer of power with Trump’s trip to Walter Reed, and that the presdient would continue to govern remotely. Sens. Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham, the GOP leader and the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, respectively, have said they plan to push ahead with Barrett’s nomination proceedings to try and get her on the court before election day, as Dems called for the proceedings to be postponed. It’s still not clear how many aides who were with Trump this week are quarantining. CDC guidelines call for an individual to quarantine for up to 14 days after coming into contact with an infected individual. Trump traveled during each of the three days leading up to his diagnosis, dragging countless aides and advisors with him, along with party officials and members of Congress.
As we explained yesteday, if Trump’s condition worsens, he could transfer power to VP Mike Pence under the proceedings outlined in the 25th Amendment. That has happened only three times in US history: When Ronald Reagan and George W Bush underwent colonoscopies in the White House. When Reagan was shot in 1981, Power was never formally transferred.
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/USA/GLOBE
Now New England Patriots’ Cam Newton tested positive
More updates.
(zerohedge)
Patriots QB Cam Newton Tests Positive; India Becomes 3rd Country To Top 100k COVID-19 Deaths: Live Updates
Summary:
- Cam Newton tests positive
- India tops 100k deaths
- Global cases near 35 million
* * *
Once again, Saturday’s biggest COVID-19-related story is the ongoing White House outbreak. Already this morning, Sen. Ron Johnson became the 24th person to test positive. Meanwhile Fla. Sen. Rick Scott and former NJ Gov. Chris Christie have both “misspoke” during appearances on cable news, saying they were “positive” when they actually meant “negative”. Though shortly after, Christie turned around and confirmed that he did, in fact, test positive.
Meanwhile, as Trump’s doctors insist the president is doing “very well” and that his fever has disappeared, ESPN just reported that Patriots QB Cam Newton has tested positive for the virus, and won’t be playing in Sunday’s game against the Chiefs.
New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton has tested positive for the coronavirus and is out for Sunday’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs, league sources tell ESPN’s Adam Schefter and Field Yates.
“Late last night, we received notice that a Patriots player tested positive for COVID-19. The player immediately entered self-quarantine,” the Patriots said in a statement Saturday. “Several additional players, coaches and staff who have been in close contact with the player received point of care tests this morning and all were negative for COVID-19.”
Veteran Brian Hoyer has served as the Patriots’ No. 2 quarterback through the first three weeks of the season, and 2019 fourth-round draft choice Jarrett Stidham has been third on the depth chart.
The Patriots were scheduled to depart for Kansas City on Saturday afternoon, but plans are now on standby as the club awaits more test results and guidance from the NFL, sources tell Schefter.
Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy, one of the world’s most infamous Patriot’s fans, declared in response that COVID-19 has gone too far, and needs to chill out.
Globally, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has climbed to 34,683,124 as of noon on Saturday in New York, while the global death toll has climbed to 1,029,667. New York Gov Cuomo offered some harsh new warnings last night, though neither he nor NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio have offered any new information on the state’s resurgent COVID-19 numbers. Nearby New Jersey has also seen its transmission rate climb to the highest level in months.
The biggest international story outside the US comes from India, where the death toll passed 100,000, making India the 3rd country to pass the confirmed 100k death mark.
India’s death toll from the novel coronavirus topped 100,000 on Saturday, making India only the third country in the world to reach that depressing milestone after the US and Brazil.
As its economy reopens, India’s outbreak shows no signs of slowing. Total deaths rose to 100,842, the health ministry said, after the country reported another 1,069 new deaths, while the tally of infections climbed to 6.47 million after a daily increase of 79,476 new cases. India now has the highest rate of daily increase in infections in the world. The country just reported another 1,069.
San Francisco Rents Crash Most On Record Amid Mass Exodus
A new report confirms what we’ve been talking about since the early days (read: here) of the virus pandemic, that is, an exodus out of major cities.
According to real estate analytics company Zumper, the exodus, out of San Francisco has been so great, that the median rent for a one-bedroom apartment collapsed more than 20% in September from a year ago to $2,830. Month over month, September rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the city fell by 7%.
Referring to the plunge in rent prices in San Francisco, Zumper said:
“Not only is this drop among the largest yearly decreases Zumper has ever recorded in our history of tracking rental prices, but it was also the first time the median 1-bed price in San Francisco was priced below $3000. These combined trends show just how drastically the market has changed in the nation’s most expensive city to rent.”
Zumper CEO Anthemos Georgiades, who was quoted by CNBC, said a flood of supply is hitting the market:
“Some renters may be inclined to move to the suburbs to get more space, as the Covid-19 pandemic spurred companies to close offices and allow employees to work from home. Facebook and Google, for example, have told employees they can work remotely at least through next summer,” Georgiades said.
The virus-induced downturn, resulting in the collapse of small businesses citywide, the decimation of low-income households, and high-unemployment, is forcing many folks across the metro area to downsize or move to less expensive areas. He said wildfires and hazardous air conditions were some other reasons for “tipping the balance about their medium-term location choices.”
Social unrest and the rise of violent crime have made many folks uncomfortable about raising a family in the dangerous metro area. Many are moving to rural communities of the Bay Area, from Marin County to Napa wine country and south to Monterey’s Carmel Valley.
Georgiades said it could take years for San Francisco real estate to heal from its pandemic wounds:
“Despite everything our data is showing, there are so many signals that it will recover, however contrarian this point may sound,” he said. “However, I think we’re talking years to fully recover, not months.”
NYC Closes Schools, Restaurants In 9 COVID-19 “Hots Spots” In First Rollback Since Start Of Pandemic: Live Updates
Summary:
- NYC Mayor rolls back freedoms for first time in 9 ‘hot spots’
- Cuomo imposes new enforcement measures
- US adds 50k+ new cases
- Myanmar reports record jump
- Italy sees slowdown day-over-day
- The Netherlands reports record new cases
* * *
With President Trump’s COVID-19 status and trip to Walter Reed sucking up most of the news cycle oxygen, the biggest COVID-19 news over the weekend was perhaps India surpassing 100,000 deaths yesterday (becoming the third country after the US and Brazil to do so) or Patriots QB Cam Newton testing positive, too.
Across the US, cases are climbing as a post-LDW bounce extends amid a surge in new cases as businesses and schools reopen across the country, with the US reporting more than 50k new cases on Saturday.
But in NYC, and, to a lesser extent, other parts of southern New York State, a relatively mild resurgence in new cases has prompted political leaders to reimpose restrictions on businesses.
On Sunday, NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio revealed that the city will close schools (just days after they re-opened on their staggered schedule following 2 prior delays) once again, and businesses in the hard-hit COVID-19 “hot spots” cropping up around the city.
“Today, unfortunately, is not a day for celebration,” Mayor de Blasio said. “Today is a more difficult day,” though to be fair, that could describe any day in the de Blasio administration.
The mayor’s plan, which must still be approved by Gov Andrew Cuomo, the mayor’s political archrival, marks the first major reversal in the city’s reopening plan since the outbreak began, according to the NYT.
Nine ZIP codes include portions of Far Rockaway, Borough Park, Midwood, Gravesend, Bensonhurst, Sheepshead Bay and Kew Gardens are being targeted by the order. The city is also closely watching 11 additional ZIP codes that de Blasio said were a “real concern.”
In the 9 affected neighborhoods, indoor dining – which it only just re-started last month – will be curtailed, along with outdoor. Schools, both public and private, will also be shuttered. Since many of the neighborhoods include ultraorthodox Jewish populations, the rule will apply to private Yeshivas, where Jewish students are educated. De Blasio said he will “rewind” the reopening of schools in the zip codes now that all 9 zip codes affected have seen their 7-day positivity rate climb back above 3%.
De Blasio’s plan comes as new cases in NY retreated back below 1,500 on Sunday, according to a tweet from Gov. Cuomo, who also announced Sunday that the state would take over supervision of 20 ‘hot spots’ around the state, including many in NYC. Cuomo announced his plan roughly an hour before de Blasio announced his.
“When the state does enforcement, we do enforcement,” Cuomo said. Notably, nothing about Cuomo’s plan conflicts with de Blasio’s, which is expected to be approved by the state.
Cuomo hinted at plans to intensify social distancing and mask-wearing enforcement in ‘hot spots’ yesterday.
Most of the hot spots are in New York City, in Brooklyn and Queens, but also counties including Hudson and Orange. Cuomo said the Orthodox Jewish communities in many of these hot spots have been cooperating with efforts to lower the numbers. Across the 20 spots, the aggregate positive test rate is 4.8%, he said. Minus those areas, the state’s overall rate falls to 0.9%, in line with the recent overall low trend in New York. Outbreaks in these “hotspots” are driving infection rates to their highest levels since NY’s reopening.
The return to restrictions could be the kiss of death for more restaurants and small businesses in those areas, which have been struggling to hold on. It also offers a preview of how President Biden might run things until a vaccine is widely available.
Here are some more COVID-19 stories from overnight and early Sunday (test courtesy of Bloomberg):
Italy reported 2,578 cases on Sunday, compared with 2,844 Saturday, which was the highest since April 24. Daily tests dropped below 100,000 to 92,714. Another 18 virus-related deaths were reported and patients in intensive care units rose above 300 to 303, well below the peak of over 4,000 in early April (Source: Bloomberg)
Myanmar reported 1,294 new cases and 41 more fatalities, the highest single-day surge since the pandemic broke out late March, the Ministry of Health and Sports says (Source: Bloomberg).
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the government has prepared a priority list for who would receive the coronavirus vaccine first, when one becomes available (Source: Bloomberg).
The Netherlands’ daily infection level surpassed 4,000 for the first time since the start of the pandemic, with 4,007 new cases on Sunday. This brings the the total amount of new infections this week to 24,000, ANP news agency wrote. Amsterdam witnessed the biggest increase with 457 new cases (Source: Bloomberg).
NEW YORK CITY TO CLOSE SCHOOLS IN SOME NEIGHBORHOODS DUE TO RISING COVID CASES
SCHOOLS, BUSINESSES TO CLOSE IN PARTS OF BROOKLYN AND QUEENS AS CASES SPIKE
INDOOR AND OUTDOOR DINING ALSO TO BE CLOSED IN 9 ZIP CODES
END
Trump Warns “If You Want Massive Tax Increase, Vote Democrat” In Morning ‘Roid Rage’ Tweetstorm
Update (0745ET): “Steroids” is now trending on twitter as users across the social network joke that Trump’s early morning tweetstorm was the result of “roid rage”. Over the weekend, Trump’s doctors confirmed that the president was being treated with dexamethasone, a steroid and effective anti-inflammatory drug that has shown great results in treating seriously ill patients. The NYT suggested that the fact that Trump is receiving the steroid suggests his condition is worse than the White House is letting on.
Others speculated that one of Trump’s aides was tweeting in the president’s stead.
The truth? We may never know.
* * *
Update (0735ET): The rant continues.
BEST V.A. EVER. 91% APPROVAL RATING. VOTE!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
SPACE FORCE. VOTE!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
MASSIVE REGULATION CUTS. VOTE!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
PRO LIFE! VOTE!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
* * *
While the mainstream press was incensed by President Trump’s joyride to greet the “Great Patriots” gathered outside Walter Reed Sunday evening, it was apparently the show of strength and stamina that investors needed to assuage worries about Trump’s condition.
And with futures pointing to a sizable bounce at the open, President Trump has taken to twitter to cheer on the stock market and remind Americans why they should vote for him in a flurry of tweets on everything from the president’s defense of the Second Amendment to the threat that Joe Biden will move to shut down the American economy once again.
The stream of tweets started with a quote from Fox and Friends, one of Trump’s favorite shows…
“I’m voting for Donald Trump. My father is a Union Worker and his 401K has tripled under President Trump.” USA Voter. @foxandfriends Thank you, and remember that the Stock Market is getting ready to break its all time high. NEXT YEAR WILL BE THE BEST EVER. VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!!!!!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
…before moving on to warning about a “massive tax increase, the biggest in the history of our country” should Joe Biden win and Democrats sweep the Senate in November.
IF YOU WANT A MASSIVE TAX INCREASE, THE BIGGEST IN THE HISTORY OF OUR COUNTRY (AND ONE THAT WILL SHUT OUR ECONOMY AND JOBS DOWN), VOTE DEMOCRAT!!!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
He then jumped to an attack on Virginia Gov. Ralph “blackface” Northam.
Virginia Voters! Your Governor wants to obliterate your Second Amendment. I have stopped him. I am the only thing between you and your Second Amendment. Working hard in Virginia. It’s IN PLAY. Better Vote for your favorite President, or wave goodbye to low taxes and gun rights!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
Before rattling off a list of reasons to vote for Trump.
STOCK MARKET HIGHS. VOTE!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
STRONGEST EVER MILITARY. VOTE!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
LAW & ORDER. VOTE!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
RELIGIOUS LIBERTY. VOTE!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
While even conservative economists acknowledge that whoever wins, taxes will likely need to be raised next year, Trump insisted another package of cuts could be “on the way”. Perhaps readers should take that one with a grain of salt.
BIGGEST TAX CUT EVER, AND ANOTHER ONE COMING. VOTE!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
401(K). VOTE!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 5, 2020
With Trump cooped up in the presidential suite at Walter Reed and receiving a cocktail of experimental drugs, we imagine he’ll be doing a lot more tweeting in the coming days.
end
Michael Every…
Note the two polls that are polar opposite.
The correct poll is the one which shows Trump winning
(zerohedge)
“In Short Trump Is Really Sick; Or Trump Is Faking; Or Trump Is Recovering But Not Out Of The Woods Yet”
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Back in early 2020, one of the ‘signs that things were really getting serious’ for the always-astute media was that the latest Bond movie, ‘No Time to Die’, was postponed for release until October. Now it is October, and it has been postponed again until April 2021. Moreover, the UK cinema chain Cineworld is suspending operations because business is not viable as virus restrictions stand; and the global chain AMC apparently only has enough cash for the next six months. In short, the movie industry –how we watch them, and so the money for how they are made, if they are made– could be dying, indicative of a whole key slice of the service-sector economy.
The title of the Bond film is obviously ironic given the backdrop of Covid-19. Doubly so given the film itself looks like it could easily die at the box office anyway when it is released: the trailer looked staggeringly generic, and its plot –about an eco-terrorist who has to kill everyone to save the planet– is totally unoriginal (Spy Who Loved Me? Moonraker?) and already eclipsed by reality around us, from environmental protests to Covid-19.
On which, real life is indeed better than a movie. US President Trump tests positive for Covid-19; seems fine; is then hospitalised; his doctors give North Korea style positive assessments; leaks say things are far more serious; he goes on a Popemobile style drive outside; and he might even be discharged today, after releasing a video in which he certainly looked healthy, even though everyone knows that it is the next few days that are critical with this virus. As Scott Adams might say, if this is all a movie, what is the ending you then project? Not just philosophically, but practically, this is all just about clinging on to narratives.
If the Walter Reed press sessions are a bit too banana republic-y, what can one say about the countervailing media and social media? On my own feed I have comments from leading journalists and economists, intelligent people all, who claim variously that: Trump is not ill and this is all an election ploy; Trump is in fact close to death and all his videos are staged; Trump knew he was infectious long before he was and deliberately tried to spread the disease; and that Trump needs to be replaced by VP Pence via the 25th amendment immediately, even though he may be discharged today. Just to underline, this is all coming direct from the intelligentsia, not the bazaar. Though it is bizarre.
Allow me to add this academic note (Giry, 2020) on conspiracy theories: they “are used to reaffirm the dominant and established values of an in-group while identifying and subsequently portraying outsiders in a negative light. Conspiracy theories express a reductionism that serves and contributes to uphold, promote and reinforce conventional behaviours, while discrediting or delegitimising inappropriate or marginal ones.”) Isn’t that dynamic as evident today from a deeply-rattled neoliberal establishment as it is from the angry populists neoliberalism created?
Of course, all of what we deal with in life is a story – even at work. In markets, you deal with either data or news-feed as the inputs for your decision-making; and if you lift the lid on data or news, you find it is all just a narrative too.
How about ‘hedonic quality adjustments’ on inflation that mean if the price of steak goes up, they assume you buy more chicken instead? The magical thinking on the Aussie labour market, where cities full of jobs come and go every month? That US initial claims suddenly had their methodology changed just as they are needed as a guide for the first time in decades? And I haven’t even mentioned huge backwards revisions that change the story years later. Or underfunded national data services struggling to keep up with structural change in the economy. Or data with Chinese characteristics.
Back to today: how about opinion polls, which sit between data and news? Two just out show Trump is within the margin of error vs. Biden, or beating him in the electoral college; yet an NBC/WSJ survey puts Biden 14 points ahead and set for landslide win. How does one account for this? Either by doing a deep-dive on the internals (sample size; geographic distribution; method of polling and the inherent errors therein; registered voters vs. likely voters; the assumed party mix vs. recent trends in both voter registration and enthusiasm surveys; the assumed demographic mix in times of change in such, etc.)… or by ignoring all that and seizing the poll preferred as one’s narrative.
Likewise, pure journalism is increasingly, deliberately partisan in what it does and doesn’t talk about – because that sells better to those wanting the narrative. As Twain put it, “If you don’t read the newspaper, you are uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you are misinformed.” (And if you read this Daily, you are probably either bored or confused – or very angry, based on some of the replies I get.)
On which, the press is now saying more US fiscal stimulus finally seems likely, probably helped by the sub-consensus payrolls data on Friday, showing economic momentum is ebbing. No time to waste if the recovery isn’t going to die, for sure.
Not so much global coverage today of China’s semiconductor giant SMIC saying that it is finding it hard to get key supplies due to its US blacklisting; or that the US is starting to enforce its long-standing immigration rules that prevent members of the communist party from immigrating there.
So, in short Trump is really sick; or Trump is faking; or Trump is recovering but not out of the woods yet. And Trump is going to lose; or Trump is going to win. And stimulus isn’t going to happen; or stimulus is going to happen. And so risk on; or risk off.
Man makes trades and markets laugh.
(And so do Aston Villa fans: reality really can trump fantasy in 2020, it seems.)
END
AS explained above, the 14 point lead for Biden is fake…massive oversampling.
such crooks.
(zerohedge)
NBC-WSJ Poll Gives Biden 14 Point Lead… By Massively Oversampling Democrats
A new Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll released on Sunday gave former Vice President Joe Biden a 14-point lead over President Trump, suggesting that “the debate – is having a material effect on Mr. Trump’s political standing.”
Another factor having a ‘material effect’ is the poll’s egregious oversampling of Democrats – with 45% of those asked identifying as either “Strong Democrat” , “Not very strong Democrat” , “Independent/lean Democrat” – vs. the 36% of those asked identifying as the same degrees of Republican.
13% of those asked are “Strictly Independent.”
Last month, the same poll ‘only’ oversampled Democrats by +3, which The Journal uses to illustrate Biden’s lead ‘jumping’ from an 8-point advantage last month.
This has happened over and over during the election.
Meanwhile, as The National Pulse notes, polls which don’t oversample Democrats have Trump in the lead, such as a Sunday Express/Democracy Institute poll:
The Express‘ David Maddox reported:
The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory with 46 percent of the popular support compared to his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s 45 percent.
The poll was completed after the news broke that President Trump and his wife Melania have been infected by Covid-19.
But 68 percent said the illness would not affect their vote while 19 percent said they were “more likely” to support Trump and only 13 percent “less likely”.
Almost two thirds said they felt sympathy and concern for the President while 38 percent said him getting the disease was “karma” in an indication of the current divisive nature of US politics.
Crucially, Mr Trump’s lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent.
This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden.
While other polls have Biden ahead, the Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s win in 2016, only considers people who identify as “likely voters” rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so called shy vote.
You’d think the polling industry would have learned its less from 2016, yet here we are – with Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight putting Biden’s chances of winning at 81.2%, according to Readspike.
Maybe this year he should wear a hat?
Interesting: Kayleigh McEnany plus 2more staff members are hit with the virus. Looks like there will be many more. However, we also heard that we 3 press members hit and they are keeping quiet!!!
(zerohedge)
Kayleigh McEnany, 2 More White House Staffers Test Positive For COVID-19
Update (1334ET): As the White House press corp unloads on McEnany, the Federalists’ Mollie Hemmingway has some questions.
* * *
Update (1235ET): Two more White House aides, Karoline Levitt and Chad Gilmartin, have tested positive, according to press reports. Both apparently worked in the comms shop with McEnany.
One former Trump advisor identified Gilmartin as a cousin of McEnany’s husband, professional baseball player Sean Gilmartin.
Unconfirmed media reports claimed that both junior staffers tested positive some time over the weekend, which would mean their cases were confirmed before McEnany tested positive.
If accurate, that would mean 29 people have now been sickened in the White House outbreak, though whispers of other more junior aides testing positive have also been circulating.
Meanwhile, the Washington press corp is reporting “longer than usual” lines at the capital district’s COVID-19 testing sites.
Fortunately, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has tested negative again on Monday (markets probably wouldn’t take a positive test very well). But as the White House is on the cusp of its 30th confirmed infection, reporters are pushing for a briefing from Dr. Birx.
* * *
Update (1205ET): Calls are growing for VP Mike Pence to skip Wednesday’s VP debate given the rash of infections tied to the WHite House and last Saturday’s press event.
We highly doubt Pence will back down.
* * *
Update (1150ET): Just as we expected, Maggie Haberman, the NYT’s White House correspondent and one of the most famous political reporters in the country, is leading the attack on McEnany, which explains the defensive tone of her statement.
Haberman essentially accused McEnany of lying about not having any contacts with the White House press corp, or anybody else.
We doubt she’ll be the last.
* * *
White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany has become the latest individual to become infected in the White House outbreak. She tested positive Monday morning.
She released a statement disclosing the diagnosis just minutes ago, where she clarified that she had no prior knowledge of Hope Hicks’ diagnosis, and claimed she had no close contacts with members of the press corp or her colleagues in the West Wing.
She claims to be asymptomatic, and tested positive Monday after negative tests over the weekend and throughout last week.
Get ready for the White House press corp to switch from screeching about Trump’s driveby photo op with supporters outside Walter Reed, to sanctimoniously whining about the White House trying to ‘manslaughter’ them via COVID-19 exposure.
McEnany is at least the 27th person infected in the growing White House outbreak, and the ninth individual (according to CNBC’s David Faber) to test positive who attended Trump’s press briefing for Amy Conney Barrett late last month.
1+2. President & Melania Trump
3. Bill Stepien, Trump campaign mgr
4. Hope Hicks
5. Kellyanne Conway
6. Sen. Ron Johnson
7. Sen. Mike Lee
8. Sen. Thom Tillis
9. Ronna McDaniel
10. Notre Dame Pres. Jenkins
11-13. Three WH reporters
14-24. Eleven staffers from Cleveland debate
25. Chris Christie
26. Nick Luna
27. Kayleigh McEnany
end
Seems that the formula for Regeneron (monoclonal antibodies), zinc, famotidine,Pepcid) and vitamin D has done the trick and knocked off the COVID 19. The plasma carries the zinc across the barrier. The antibodies work by neutralizing the COVID while signaling the much strong killer T cells into action.
It is working beautifully. Trump will be discharged tonight.!!
(zerohedge0
“Don’t Be Afraid Of COVID” – Trump Tweets That He’ll Be Discharged Tonight, Feels Better”
Less than 30 minutes before his medical team is supposed to update the public on the president’s condition, President Trump has just tweeted that he will be leaving Walter Reed at 1830ET.
Just minutes earlier, Trump rebutted accusations from the mainstream press that he put secret service members lives ‘at risk’ by greeting his supporters in a presidential motorcade early Sunday evening.
But if Trump leaves Walter Reed tonight and doesn’t return, his urging for Americans “not to fear COVID-19” will be remembered, as he personally has demonstrated that the virus is not a “death sentence”, even for older Americans.
On CNBC, Tyler Mathisen suggested that one of the side effects of dexamethasone is a feeling of euphoria, meaning that Trump might be feeling better than his condition actually reflects. So, we now wait for Trump’s doctors to speak, to see whether they will parrot the narrative.
Trump tweeted as the NYT was publishing a report claiming that at least two White House housekeepers have tested positive.
v)Swamp commentaries)
v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.
Well that is all for today
I will see you TUESDAY night.
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