OCT 7 c//GOLD DOWN $16.00 TO $1888.10//SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TO $23.81//CME INSTITUTED A HUGE 13% HIKE IN SILVER MARGINS AND GOLD MARGINS ROSE AS WELL//HUGE QUEUE JUMP IN GOLD OF 2 TONNES AS 100.8 TONNES NOW STANDING//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//TRUMP TWEETS THAT HE WILL GO ALONG WITH SINGLE ENTITY STIMULUS RE AIRLINES AND 1200 DOLLAR PAYCHECK STIMULUS PKG//TRUMP ATTACKS ECONOMICALLY CHINA AGAIN// SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1888.10 DOWN  $16.00   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$23.81 DOWN 9 CENTS   London spot price ( cash market)

your data…

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1888.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $23.78//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

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CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

OCT GOLD:  1881.60  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /:  $6.50  BACKWARD!! A MAGNET FOR LONDON PURCHASERS OF GOLD!

DEC. GOLD  $1890.00   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $1.90/ CONTANGO   ( $4.10 BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO) //

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER NOV COMEX CLOSE;   $23.91…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 10 CENTS CONTANGO/ 8 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO//)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $23.92  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       :  11  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO (   5 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL) CONTANGO

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today:    553/2283

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,901.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/06/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 10/08/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 333 129
099 H DB AG 56
104 C MIZUHO 1 48
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 88
132 C SG AMERICAS 11
323 C HSBC 15
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 25
355 C CREDIT SUISSE 17
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 9
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 170
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 220
661 C JP MORGAN 1610 461
661 H JP MORGAN 92
690 C ABN AMRO 78
709 C BARCLAYS 359
709 H BARCLAYS 404
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 6 34
880 C CITIGROUP 30
880 H CITIGROUP 333
905 C ADM 32
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 2,283 2,283

issued:1610

GOLDMAN SACHS STOPPED 128 CONTRACTS.

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT. CONTRACT: 2283 NOTICE(S) FOR 2,28,300 OZ  (7.1010 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  22,060 NOTICES FOR 2,206,000 OZ  (68.615 tonnes) 

SILVER//OCTOBER CONTRACT

7 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 35,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 1689 for 8,445,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $10613   UP 12

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:  $10,658  UP 59 DOLLARS .

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GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $16.00  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.98 TONNES

GLD: 1,271.62 TONNES OF GOLD//

WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

A PAPER DEPOSIT OF .466 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

SLV: 561.566  MILLION OZ./

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Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1430 CONTRACTS FROM 156,914 DOWN TO 155,555, AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE $0.51 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO CONSIDERABLE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING..  COUPLED AGAINST AN EXTREMELY  WEAK EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL (390 CONTRACTS). WE ALSO HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A TINY INCREASE IN SILVER OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR OCT.  WE HAD A  STRONG NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1040 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A TINY  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  390, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  OCT 0;  DEC:  390, MARCH  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  390 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

9.475 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL $0.51) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (1040 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE GAIN IN OI WAS DUE TO i) SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL GAIN IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  FOR OCTOBER, iii) STRONG COMEX LOSS AND iv) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION. YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

We have now switched to silver for our spreaders!!

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT. HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

OCT

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF OCT:

1560 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 1560 CONTRACTS) OR 7.800 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 312 CONTRACTS OR 1.560 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF OCT: 7.800 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 1.11% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,464.84 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                78.360 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)

OCT EFP                                 7.800   MILLION OZ (LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE FALLING OFF A CLIFF IN  NUMBERS)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1395, WITH OUR STRONG $0.51 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAY.…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A WEAK SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 390 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE LOST A STRONG SIZED 1005 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR $0.51 FALL IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

i.e 390 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED DECREASE OF 1430 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.51 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $24.41 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.776 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 111% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW OCT  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 7NOTICE(S) FOR  35,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL 837 CONTRACTS TO 555,555 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  STRONG LOSS IN PRICE  OF $10.70 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY. WE PROBABLY HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE PROBABLY HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND ANOTHER HUGE INCREASE IN GOLD OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX….THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $10.70. 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  77//

WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 2064 CONTRACTS  (6.419 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1222 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . OCT: 0 DEC: 1222; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1222.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 555,555. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2064 CONTRACTS: 837 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1227 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 2064 CONTRACTS OR 6.96 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1227) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZE GAIN IN COMEX OI  (837 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2064 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)A HUGE INCREASE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT OCT. MONTH TO 100.81 TONNES)  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ;4) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY//$10.70.

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 6976, CONTRACTS OR 697,600 oz OR 21.69 TONNES (5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1395 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 21.69 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 21.69/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.610% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,584.96  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE EXTREMELY LOW)

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       178.49 TONNES (EFP’s AGAIN RISING DUE TO BACKWARDATION/LOWER FUTURE PREMIUMS//THUS LESS COST TO CARRY)

OCT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE.                        21.69 TONNES (LOOKS LIKE THESE ARE DROPPING IN NUMBERS AGAIN)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1470 CONTRACTS FROM 156,914 DOWN TO 155,484 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1)   CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING , 2) A WEAK ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL INCREASE IN STANDING  FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR OCT., AND 4) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION 

EFP ISSUANCE 390 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 OCT: 0 AND DEC. 390 AND MARCH:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 390 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1430 CONTRACTS TO THE 390 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1040 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.25 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.51  FALL IN PRICE///

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 262.21  OR 1.09%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 10.91 POINTS OR 0.05%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.22%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 39.68 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.81 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7331 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY BY A SMALL 837 CONTRACTS TO 555,555 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS SMALL  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG FALL OF $10.70 IN GOLD PRICING /TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A VERY SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1227 CONTRACTS).   WE  ALSO PROBABLY HAD  1)  SOME CONSIDERABLE BANKER//ALGO SHORT COVERING,  2)   ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  HUGE INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE  COMEX//OCT. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2240 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 77

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1227 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:   OCT: 0  DEC 1227; FEB// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1227  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 2064 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1227 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 837 COMEX CONTRACTS.. THE BIG NEWS IS THE POWERFUL LEVEL OF OCTOBER 2020 CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY. ( 100.818 tonnes).

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $10.70).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A FAIR   6.419 TONNES,

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 2064 CONTRACTS OR 206,400 OZ OR 6.419 TONNES.

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  555,555 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 55.57 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1728 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1728/2200 OR 78.56% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 186,617 contracts// volume  very poor/

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  228,229 contracts//  volume:  VERY POOR //most of our traders have left for London

OCT 7 /2020

OCT. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT GOLD
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 208,820.745 oz

BRINKS

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil   OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
2283 notice(s)
 228,300 OZ
(7.1010 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
10,351 contracts
(1,035,100 oz)
32.195 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
22,060 notices
2,206,000 OZ
68.615 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into BRINKS  208,820.745 OZ

total deposit: 208,820.745  oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

total customer deposit:  NIL oz

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

total withdrawals; NIL;  oz

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

ADJUSTMENTS: 1 // 

i) Out of JPM:  customer to dealer:  40,394.489 oz

The front month of OCT registered a total of 12,634 contracts for a GAIN of 230 contracts. We had 396 notices filed on Tuesday so we gained a humongous 626 contracts or 62,600 additional oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October. In gold we have not seen queue jumping start so early in the month. I wrote the following yesterday:  “thus you can bet the farm that throughout October, the total number of gold oz standing will increase from this level.” So far it seems that I am right. Gold must be secured for comex contracts standing for metal as well as exercised EFP’s.

November gained 235 contracts to stand at 1389.

The big December contract LOST 312 contracts DOWN to 448,572 contracts..

THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH OI STANDING FOR OCTOBER (100.818 tonnes). GENERALLY OCTOBER IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY(GOLDMAN SACHS) JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE ON OCTOBER FOR PHYSICAL METAL. GOLDMAN SACHS ONE OF THE LEADERS OF THE NEW LONDON LME EXCHANGE NEEDS THE GOLD INVENTORY FOR LIQUIDITY AND INITIAL CONTRIBUTION WITH OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MONTH AND OTHER MONTHS IS THAT THIS GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER WILL LEAVE THE COMEX AND HEAD FOR LONDON.

We had  2283 notices filed today for  228,300 oz OR 7.1010 TONNES.

FOR THE OCT 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from
JPMorgan dealer account and  1610 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2283  contract(s) of which 92  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 461 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 128 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (22,060) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT (12,634 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (2283 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,241,100 OZ OR 100.818 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of Oct

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (22,060, x 100 oz +12,634 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2283) x 100 oz which equals 3,241,100 oz standing OR 100.818 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a OCT delivery month (a poor active delivery month).

We gained 626 contracts or an additional 62,600 oz will stand on this side of the pond searching for metal.

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

592,648.822 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  18.433 TONNES ( A HUGE INCREASE FROM 10.6)

42,548.308.00 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

277,934.09 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.644 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   July 2/July 21               19.017 tonnes

51,084.609 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.588 tonnes JPM

total pledged gold:  1,574,454.119 oz                                     48.97 tonnes

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 489.49 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 100.818 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  17,311,744.268 oz or 538.46 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  1,574,454.119 oz or 48.97 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,737,290.0  (489.49 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,737,290.0 (489.49 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  19,891,487.461 oz (618.70 tonnes) dropping in weight

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  37,203,231.729 oz 1,157.17 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1030.83 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

OCT 7/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDINGS

OCT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
10,141.250 oz
CNT
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
11,849.200 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
7
CONTRACT(S)
(35,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
206 contracts
 1,030,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1689 contracts

8,445,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposits into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil      oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i)into JPM: NIL oz

JPMorgan now has 187.1 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.20% of all official comex silver. (187.1 million/380.6 million

ii) Into CNT: 11,849.200 oz

total customer deposits today:  11,849.200  oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware: 4005.95 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 6135.300 oz

total withdrawals; 10,141.250    oz

We had 1 adjustments/    dealer to customer

i) CNT  418,427.893 oz

Total dealer(registered) silver: 142.098 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  380.597 million oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

October had  213 notices outstanding for a LOSS of 313 contracts.  We had 314 notices served upon yesterday so we GAINED 1 contracts or 5,000 additional oz of silver will stand in this non active month of October.

November saw a gain of 15 notices up to 445 contracts.

December saw a LOSS of 1199 contracts DOWN to 131,445 contracts.

The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2020. contract month is represented by 7 contract(s) FOR 35,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1689 x 5,000 oz = 8,445,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT( 213) and the number of notices served upon today 7x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 1,689 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT  (213)- number of notices served upon today (7) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month .equals 9,475,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH.

We gained 1 contracts or 5,000 additional oz will  stand for silver metal on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into a London based forwards.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 61,910 CONTRACTS // volume  rather slow//

FOR YESTERDAY  75,638  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//  much slower than normal/

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF  75,638 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.378 billion  OZ 54.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 3.11% ((OCT 7/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.60% to NAV:   (OCT 6/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/3.11%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.19 TRADING 18.58///NEGATIVE 3.19

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.00 DOLLARS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.98 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.62 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1275.60 TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1275.60 TONNES

OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 9.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.19 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $19.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 30//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.10//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

/SEPT 28//WITH GOLD UP $14.30 DOLLARS: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 25//WITH GOLD DOWN 410.80 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1266.84 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14TONNES.

SEPT 23//WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 11.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY, A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 18.98 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTER THE GLD///// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.62TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.94 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1259.64TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $10.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT: 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.05 TODAY: A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 15//WITH GOLD UP $2.25 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .43 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD  DOWN 90 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1248.00 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.92 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1252.96 TONNES

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $19.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $8.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 4//WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.50 ON THIS 2ND DAY OF A 3 DAY RAID:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 TODAY, WE HAVE 2 SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF .87 TONNES AND.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1250.04 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY, WE HAVE NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1251.50 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

OCT 7/ GLD INVENTORY 1271.62 tonnes*

LAST;  917 TRADING DAYS:   +331.78 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 817 TRADING DAYS://+510.71  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 466,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.566 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 51 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.100 MILLION OZ//

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A  DEPOSIT OF 11.984 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.100 MILLION OZ//

OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.116 MILLION OZ//

OCT 1/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.489 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.116 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 96 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 186,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.605 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER UP 86 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.791 MILLILON OZ//

SEPT 28//WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.769 MILLION OZ CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.791 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 TRANSACTIONS: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.28 MILION OZ FROM THE SLV AND A DEPOSIT OF 1.861 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.022 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23//WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.048 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.141 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.491 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.43 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.862 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.350MILLION OZ//

SEPT 18. WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.537 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.793 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY:  HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS A) 1.675 MILLION OZ AND ANOTHER B) 0.931 MILLION OZ/ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.956 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 10/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.607 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.562 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: STRANGE: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.63 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.169 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER DOWN 15  CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.631 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.799 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.258 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.430 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 2.WITH SILVER DOWN $1.04 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.365 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY REST AT 571.688 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 1//WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.053 MILLION OZ//

OCT 7.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

561.566 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Is Silver about to “Pop” or “Drop”? [Chart]

The chart of silver at the moment shows that it is poised for a breakout move.

It has failed on a number of occasions recently to close above resistance at $24.40. If we do see it closing above this level that could signal a quick move up to the next major resistance at $26.50.

However it is also also finding support from the major upward trend line that has held since the March lows and a break below this could signal a retest of the recent lows (approx. $22.65) and ultimately support further down at $19.50.

With the precious metals markets being heavily influenced at the moment by the vagaries of the stock market and the relative strength of the US dollar, any “News-bomb” will have a increased impact on the short-term price action for the white metal.

NEWS and COMMENTARY

Gold eases after Trump’s discharge, weaker dollar cushions decline

Gold Is Still an Excellent Diversifier: UBS (Bloomberg TV)

Dollar on defensive as U.S. stimulus hopes, Trump discharge boost risk sentiment

10-year, 30-year Treasury rates hit nearly 4-month high to start week amid fears of increased deficit spending

U.S. commercial bankruptcies up 33% year to date

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

05-Oct-20 1899.65 1909.60 1467.48 1472.49 1616.41 1620.49
02-Oct-20 1906.40 1903.05 1473.46 1471.82 1627.87 1624.44
01-Oct-20 1895.55 1902.00 1477.01 1476.33 1615.96 1619.74
30-Sep-20 1883.40 1886.90 1468.49 1467.63 1609.74 1613.30
29-Sep-20 1882.40 1883.95 1461.87 1465.71 1610.02 1606.44
28-Sep-20 1850.95 1864.30 1440.78 1448.37 1589.41 1597.52
25-Sep-20 1870.05 1859.70 1467.05 1462.65 1605.25 1598.78
24-Sep-20 1850.75 1861.75 1453.21 1460.92 1588.68 1598.50
23-Sep-20 1888.10 1873.40 1483.48 1470.06 1611.49 1603.63
22-Sep-20 1903.10 1906.00 1487.46 1493.16 1621.63 1625.25
21-Sep-20 1930.90 1909.35 1503.21 1489.48 1638.18 1624.47
18-Sep-20 1954.75 1950.85 1505.16 1508.01 1647.85 1648.66
17-Sep-20 1936.10 1936.25 1494.67 1499.82 1642.78 1640.20
16-Sep-20 1964.80 1961.80 1521.15 1512.55 1654.56 1656.74
15-Sep-20 1963.55 1949.35 1523.13 1513.09 1652.13 1644.67

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ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

LIARS!

CFTC says new capacity to interpret trading data revived silver investigation

 Section: 

JPMorgan Probe Was Revived by Regulators’ Data Mining

By Dave Michaels
The Wall Street Journal
Monday, October 5, 2020

WASHINGTON — Investigators probing whether traders at JPMorgan Chase rigged silver prices seven years ago decided there was no case to bring. Last week the same agency hammered the megabank with a $920 million fine.

How a small agency that once walked away from an investigation of price manipulation, only to later impose its biggest fine ever for the conduct, shows the advances government has made in using data to uncover market manipulation, said James McDonald, enforcement director of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

… 

“We could not have brought the JPMorgan case without the data analytics program we have now,” said Mr. McDonald, who will step down as director this week after more than three years in the post.

The data needed to uncover the eight-year market manipulation scheme came from Chicago-based CME Group Inc., the operator of exchanges including one that offers trading in gold and silver futures. The volume of data — including trades, orders, and other messages flooding into CME’s computers — is so massive the CFTC couldn’t store or use it when Mr. McDonald began seeking it in 2017, he said.

Five years of complete CME trading data amounts to 1.7 terabytes, or 127 million pages of information, according to testimony in a recent trial that resulted in the conviction of two former Deutsche Bank AG traders on fraud charges related to spoofing.

As the CFTC added the ability to store and access more trading data in the cloud, it also hired former Chicago traders and other quantitative-minded employees to write programs that filter CME’s data for patterns of manipulation.

“There is really no other avenue that we have that allows us to be as proactive [investigating] as data,” Mr. McDonald said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-probe-revived-by-regulators-data-m…?

END

Gold seems to breaking away for the inverse relationship with the dollar

(Dave Kranzler/IRD/GATA)

Dave Kranzler: The price of gold when the dollar index hits 70

 Section: 

1:47p ET Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

While they are inversely correlated over the long term, gold and the U.S. dollar don’t always behave consistently toward each other, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics in Denver writes today. Indeed, Kranzler writes, since March gold has risen almost 32 percent while the dollar index has been largely unchanged.

… 

But with economic conditions in the United States sinking steadily, Kranzler writes, the dollar is bound to fall, boosting the monetary metals again.

His analysis is headlined “The Price Of Gold When the Dollar Index Hits 70” and it’s posted at IRD here:

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-price-of-gold-when-the-dollar…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

The buggers raised margins on both gold and silver last night

no wonder gold/silver fell:

James McShirley..

Fed’s Kashkari sees ‘much worse’ downturn without more fiscal aid

Yes, the very same news that drove the Dow giddy with delight- a Trump tweet promising more free stuff, aka stimulus- is somehow counterintuitively BAD for gold. Even the dollar reacted negatively.

Yesterday’s puny trading volume that was heading to another record low was rescued late in the day when the selloff accelerated. Today’s volume is still puny, albeit less puny than Tuesday. That aforementioned accelerated selloff was HIGHLY likely due to the CME’s margin hikes on gold and silver. Silver margin in particular was hiked another 13% to $16,500, bringing its leverage all the way down to 7.2-1. Ya think they are scared sh*tless of the Kryptonite? Gold margin is now $11,550, giving it a leverage of 16.2-1.

The punishing margins on silver is proof positive they intend to stop as many speculators as possible from driving the price to the moon. No wonder trading volumes are so low. The cartel got wrist slapped, yet still exert influence over CME margin decisions. This is the same crap they have pulled over and over for many years. With this margin hike we now know for certain the physical market is in trouble. If Comex silver goes full margin soon it will not surprise me. The days of counterintuitive price moves and margin requirement gimmickry are going to end.

James M

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7331   /shanghai bourse CLOSED

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 262.21  PTS OR 1.09%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 10.91 POINTS OR 0.05%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 93.65/Euro RISES TO 1.1771

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.02/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 39.68 and Brent: 41.81

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.49%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.80% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.24%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.28: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.97

3k Gold at $1888.00 silver at: 23.62   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 20/100 in roubles/dollar) 78.14

3m oil into the 39 dollar handle for WTI and 41 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 106.02 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9166 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0788 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.49%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.779% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.580%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.88..

S&P Futures Rebound As Trump Tweetstorm Leaves Door Open For More Stimulus Talks

It’s been a rollercoaster 24 hours for markets, which initially surged on Tuesday on fresh fiscal stimulus hopes, only to see said hope crushed by Trump at exactly 2:47pm, when the president tweeted that had had “instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business.” The tweet unleashed a furious selling spree, which saw S&P futures drop as low as 3,330 overnight after closing 1.4% lower, more than 90 point from their pre-Trump tweet highs.

The tweets sparked the worst session for the S&P 500 and the Dow in two weeks, while airlines sank 3% as the move appeared to scuttle $25 billion in new bailout for the industry. All this happened just hours after Fed Chair Jerome Powell called for more help for businesses and households to keep a nascent economic recovery from faltering.

Trump said the biggest sticking point in the negotiations was the Democratic demand for aid to cash-strapped state and local governments, without which they will have to push through aggressive budget cuts: “I am rejecting their request, and looking to the future of our Country. I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business,” Trump tweeted.

However, about six hours later, in a furious tweet (and retweet) storm which touched on everything from the fake Russian collusion probe, to the FDA, the president appeared to backtrack from completely abandoning negotiations, when president made separate appeals for lawmakers to approve additional funding for airlines to prevent thousands of job cuts, more aid to small businesses and direct government payments worth up to $1,200 for most individuals.

In the aftermath of the Trump tweetstorm which took algos lots of milliseconds to parse through, futures resumed levitating and regained much of the Tuesday drop as markets in Asia recovered some ground following, with Japan’s Topix down 0.1% on Wednesday afternoon and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index actually rising 0.6%.

“These tweets appear to have arrested the risk-off move,” Rabobank analyst Lyn Graham-Taylor wrote in an investor note “However, it seems a stretch to think that the Democrats would be fans of signing any standalone stimulus measures as, heading into the election, it would erode one of the differentiating factors between them and the Republicans.”

Trump’s apparent willingness to continue discussions helped push shares of Delta Air Lines, American Airlines Group, United Airlines and JetBlue higher between 2.4% and 6.9% in premarket trading. Amazon.com and Apple rose in premarket trading while Facebook was flat as investors seemed to take in stride a House panel’s proposal of stricter antitrust rules to curb the power of the four technology giants, including Google. Italian payments giant Nexi SpA slid after news of private-equity backers selling shares.

Still, odds of Democrats accepting a piecemeal deal instead of a bulk package are virtually nil. As the FT notes, “Trump’s subsequent statement that he was still interested in approving more federal aid on a piecemeal basis is unlikely to be greeted with enthusiasm among Democrats, who have long pushed for a comprehensive package. But it may leave a small sliver of hope that Mr Trump could yet compromise.”

Sure enough, according to Medley Global, Trump’s support for alternative stimulus measures are “removing the angst” from his earlier decision, allowing futures to push higher as investors digested the tweets; at the same time Treasuries resumed falling and the dollar was mixed, while oil reversed an earlier gain as the API report signaled U.S. crude stockpiles rose for the first time in four weeks. Gold gained.

Others, such as Axi Corp analyst Milan Cutkovic, quickly joined in attempting to spin the reversal of what until yesterday was the widely accepted narrative, as bullish: “(The halt in stimulus talks) is unlikely to be the catalyst for a significant sell-off as most market participants were not anticipating that a deal will be reached ahead of the election anyway.” He cautioned however that “should there be no stimulus package announced shortly after the election, investors could get increasingly nervous about the economic recovery losing momentum.”

European stocks erased initial gains to trade lower at mid-session on Wednesday, weighed down by declines among insurers and banking stocks. The Stoxx 600 Index was down 0.2% at 11:45 a.m. London time, with investors looking ahead to the release of the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September meeting and continuing to digest President Donald Trump’s decision to halt stimulus talks. Gazprom PJSC’s shares fell after it was hit with a 29 billion zloty ($7.6 billion) fine from Poland’s antitrust watchdog, which said its proposed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline impedes competition on European Union energy markets.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, led by energy and IT, after rising in the last session. The Topix was little changed, with Olympic rising and Tokai Soft Co Ltd falling the most.

Meanwhile, with Trump now out of the hospital, investors continue to monitor the virus’s impact on economic recoveries around the world. Signs are mounting the virus is returning to the New York area, with infections reaching three-month highs. The European Commission is due to announce a contract to procure as many as 500,000 treatment courses of remdesivir from Gilead Sciences Inc., an EU official said.

In rates, Treasuries bear-steepen as stocks advanced ahead of today’s 10Y auction, reversing all of yesterday’s gains, and were near session lows after U.S. President Trump reversed Tuesday’s position against negotiating economic stimulus measures. Yields were higher by 4bp-5bp at long end, steepening 5s30s by ~2bp, 2s10s by nearly 4bp; 10-year, higher by 4bp at 0.775%, lags bunds and gilts by 2bp-3bp. Supply was also a factor as dealers prepare to underwrite 10- and 30-year re-openings Wednesday and Thursday. Euro-area bonds mostly slipped before Lagarde speaks.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inched lower as it erased an Asia session gain and the Treasury curve steepened, following yesterday’s flattening. Risk-sensitive currencies, led by Norway’s krone and the Australian dollar, advanced versus the dollar; the yen was the worst performer as it extended losses in European hours.

In commodities, WTI and Brent remained under pressure at/near session lows as markets balance supply and demand side developments. On the demand side, woes of the implications of the resurging cases persist, in turn prompting the EIA to downgrade its 2020 world oil demand growth forecast by 300k BPD to a decline of 8.62mln BPD Y/Y and cut 2021 world oil demand growth forecast by 280k BPD to an increase of 6.25mln BPD Y/Y, with the OPEC and IEA releases due next week. From a supply standpoint, Private Inventory data printed a larger than expected build (+1.0mln bbls vs. Exp. +0.3mln bbls) and markets await confirmation from the EIA which showed similar expectations for the headline figure. (+0.294mln bbls).

And now hold on to your hats because the political rollercoaster is not done yet, and all eyes later in the day will be on the only debate between Vice President Mike Pence and Democratic challenger Kamala Harris, which comes less than a week after Trump said he had contracted COVID-19.

We also get the FOMC’s minutes from their September meeting, and hear from the ECB’s Lagarde, Villeroy, and the Fed’s Rosengren, Bostic, Kashkari, Williams and Evans. Finally, the data highlights include August data on German industrial production, Italian retail sales and US consumer credit.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 3,369.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 365.53
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 173.75
  • MXAPJ up 0.7% to 572.81
  • Nikkei down 0.05% to 23,422.82
  • Topix up 0.04% to 1,646.47
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 24,242.86
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,218.05
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 39,845.35
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.3% to 6,036.38
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,386.94
  • Brent futures down 1.4% to $42.07/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,891.79
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.73
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to -0.513%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1759
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.1 bps to 0.573%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 0.222%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The ECB is running down its stock of so-called commercial paper — short-term debt instruments issued by companies to meet immediate funding needs — while the Bank of England announced plans to discontinue purchases. It’s a dramatic turnaround from April when some of Europe’s biggest firms, including Iberdrola SA and Volkswagen AG, were urging the ECB to quicken short-term debt purchases to head-off crippling cash crunches
  • The French president is standing firm on his demand to keep the same access to British waters his country’s fishing industry enjoys today, according to officials familiar with the talks. That’s angering the British and creating tensions even among his allies within the EU
  • Spain’s growing list of risks is starting to make investors nervous. The nation’s debt is lagging a regional rally that has driven the rate on Italian bonds — long regarded as the pariah of Europe and among the highest yielding — close to a record low. That’s narrowed the gap between Spanish and Italian yields to the smallest in more than two years
  • The European Union looks set to launch a $118 billion foray into social bonds, a market that has already swelled four-fold this year to fund projects to help societies recover from the coronavirus
  • Norway’s government is on track to withdraw a record amount from its sovereign wealth fund this year, and to continue pumping historic amounts of stimulus in 2021, to fight the “severe setback” triggered by the Covid crisis

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asian equities traded mixed as the region partially shrugged off the negative mood which initially rolled over from Wall St, where stock markets slumped in late trade after US President Trump announced that he is to walk away from COVID relief talks until after the election amid disparities regarding the value of the stimulus package. This resulted to losses of more than 1% for all major US indices and the large tech names were also pressured in extended trade after the House democrats antitrust committee report noted several tech giants enjoyed ‘monopoly power’ and recommended changes including structural separations and prohibiting dominant platforms from entering adjacent lines of business. Nonetheless, the tone in Asia gradually improved with ASX 200 (+1.3%) first to buck the trend as it reclaimed the 6000 level, led by strength in consumer stocks after the announcement of an expansionary budget which brought forward tax cuts and with sentiment also helped by increased calls for the RBA to loosen policy next month. Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) was weaker as exporters suffered from the ill effects of recent flows into the local currency but with the index off worst levels amid the slightly brightening picture, while the Hang Seng (+1.1%) reclaimed the 24000 level after shrugging off early indecision following tepid Hong Kong PMI data which showed an improvement although remained in contraction territory for a 31st consecutive month. Finally, 10yr JGBs eked minimal gains amid the lacklustre risk tone in Tokyo and following the tepid Rinban operation by the BoJ which were in the market for a reserved JPY 400bln of JGBs mostly concentrated in 3-5yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Vedanta Sinks Most Since March Amid Delisting Price Uncertainty
  • Yuan Looks Good for 2021 on China Recovery: FX Macro Ranking
  • Greentown China Soars to 7-Year High on Big September Sales Gain
  • Netflix Wins India Legal Battle Over Rogue Billionaires Series

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%) trade with mild losses as US equity futures trimmed losses seen in the wake of President Trump’s decision to pull the plug on COVID stimulus talks until after the election. Note, after the initial announcement, Trump suggested he would be willing to back certain aspects of a broader stimulus package such as USD 25bln for airline payroll support and USD 135bln for the Paycheck Protection Program. This helped provide some reprieve for US futures, whilst markets also continue to assess the post-November election landscape with increased focus on the prospects of a Democratic “Blue Sweep” as recent polling data moves further in favour of former VP Biden. In recent months, the main inference from such an outcome has been centred around the likelihood of a less favourable tax environment for US corporates, however, given the inertia in Congress over the past few weeks, markets could take some solace in the likelihood of a more functional legislature that could pass a sizeable support package and help soothe the concerns raised by Fed Chair Powell yesterday. In Europe, the session hasn’t seen much in the way of out or underperformance across regional bourses as markets await the US entrance to market. From a sectoral standpoint, food & beverage names lead the way higher after Diageo (+1.4%) and Pernod Ricard (+2.6%) were both upgraded at Jefferies. To the downside, travel names such as Tui (-3.6%), easyJet (-4.8%) and IAG (-0.3%) have been hampered by reports in the Guardian noting that the UK decision on introducing COVID-19 testing for international arrivals – which is designed to reduce quarantine times – will not take place until November at the earliest. Individual movers include Tesco (+2.0%) after the Co.’s HY profits rose 28.7% relative to 2019, whilst Dialog Semiconductor (+0.6%) shares are firmer after raising Q3 revenue guidance and noting that improving trends are expected to continue into Q4.

Top European News

  • Billionaire Arnault Buys Influence Through Media Deals in France
  • It’s Spain, Not Italy, That European Investors Are Worried About
  • Norway Reveals Record Withdrawals From $1.1 Trillion Fund
  • Tesco’s New CEO Takes Over as Online Shopping Surges in U.K.

In FX, the broader Dollar and Index trade modestly softer in early European hours after US President Trump called off coronavirus stimulus talks until after the elections but is ready to sign a standalone bill for stimulus checks if he is sent one. Thus, DXY has waned off its best levels (93.900) as it drifts lower to test its 21 DMA (93.622) ahead of the 93.500 psychological mark, with the 55 DMA touted at 93.321. Looking ahead, FOMC Minutes could garner attention with regards to QE maturities after Fed’s Mester suggested that the Fed should have the scope to lengthen QE maturities, alongside any meat on the bones on AIT (full primer available on the newsquawk headline feed), albeit fiscal updates are likely to steal the limelight throughout the session. The calendar from a data-standpoint is light, but speakers on the docket include voters Williams (x2), Kashkari and 2021 voter Evans.

  • AUD, NZD, CAD – The non-US Dollars are posting varying degrees of gains, with the Aussie outperforming as it retraces some of yesterday’s post-RBA/budget losses, but remains sub-0.7150 against the Dollar, currently at the top of today’s 0.7097-7146 range. The Kiwi meanwhile benefits from the broader Dollar weakness as it re-eyes 0.6600 to the upside (vs. 0.6576 at worst) with the 50 and 21 DMAs seen at 0.6632 and 0.6640 respectively. The Loonie’s gains are hampered by the overnight crude decline, but nonetheless ekes mild gains against the Buck as USD/CAD decline from a high of 1.3340 and dipped below 1.300 to open the door to its 21 DMA at 1.3271 ahead of the 1.3250 psychological mark.
  • GBP, EUR, CHF – Modest gains seen across the European currencies as Sterling leads the gains with pertinent newsflow including reports that Chancellor Sunak is mulling new support for businesses impacted by COVID-19, whilst from a Brexit standpoint, EU member states are said to be taking an increasingly hard stance over concessions – with President Macron standing firm on the issue of fisheries. Cable has yielded the 1.2900 handle (vs. low 1.2864). EUR/USD retraces some of yesterday’s losses and resides north of 1.1750 at the time of writing (vs. low 1.1726) as it eyes its 55 DMA (1.1791) ahead of the 1.1800 figure. Levels to the downside include Monday’s low (1.1705) and Friday’s low (1.1694), with today’s OpEx comprising of EUR 750mln rolling off between 1.1740-50. CHF also stands as a beneficiary of the Dollar softness, with USD/CHF remaining below in a tight range 0.9200 (0.9161-84 range), with the 55 DMA seen around 0.9136.
  • JPY – The Yen bucks the trend and fails to benefit from the softer Dollar, with some pointing to technical play and after touted stops were triggered around 105.80, with more reported at 106.00+. USD/JPY resides at the top if the current 105.61-106.00 band, and with a notable USD 2.1bln in options scattered between 105.45-106.10 to keep in mind for today’s NY cut.
  • EM – EM FX see broad-based Dollar induced gains, with the exception of the Turkish Lira which succumbed to renewed pressure in early EU hours, potentially on heightened geopolitical risk after the Iranian President warned that the Azeri-Armenian conflict could lead to a regional war, whilst Turkey continues to support its ally Azerbaijan. USD/TRY notched a fresh record high ~7.8680 from a low of 7.7800.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures remain under pressure with both benchmarks at/near session lows as markets balance supply and demand side developments. On the demand side, woes of the implications of the resurging cases persist, in turn prompting the EIA to downgrade its 2020 world oil demand growth forecast by 300k BPD to a decline of 8.62mln BPD Y/Y and cut 2021 world oil demand growth forecast by 280k BPD to an increase of 6.25mln BPD Y/Y, with the OPEC and IEA releases due next week. From a supply standpoint, Private Inventory data printed a larger than expected build (+1.0mln bbls vs. Exp. +0.3mln bbls) and markets await confirmation from the EIA which showed similar expectations for the headline figure. (+0.294mln bbls). Sticking with supply, Norway sees some 330k BPD of total production shuttered amid oil and gas strikes, with plans for an escalation on the 10th of October, albeit production at the 470k BPS Johan Sverdrup field is said to be unaffected despite some workers on strike. Over to the Gulf of Mexico, NHC noted that Hurricane Delta could become a Category 4 hurricane again by later Thursday, with weakening expected as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Note, the BSEE yesterday estimated that approximately 29.22% of the current oil production and approximately 8.59% of the natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in, with the next update expected around 19:00BST/14:00ET. WTI resides sub-40/bbl with the current base at USD 39.63/bbl (vs. high 40.35/bbl), while its Brent counterpart yields the USD 42/bbl mark (vs. high 42.40/bbl), with the current low at USD 41.69/bbl. Elsewhere, spot gold remains below USD 1900/oz and has largely moved at the whim of the Buck in European trade, whilst spot silver outperforms but remains shy of the USD 24/oz mark. LME copper prices meanwhile have ease off best levels but remains in the green, whilst from a fundamental standpoint, some tout the increasing possibility of potential strikes at the Candelaria mine in Chile after the latest wage offer was rejected, whilst ING also cite the petering out of LME copper inventory builds.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -4.8%
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $14.0b, prior $12.3b

Central Bank Speakers

  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 2pm: Fed’s Williams Moderates Henry Kissinger Discussion
  • 2:40pm: Fed’s Kashkari, Bostic, Rosengren to Speak on Racism
  • 3pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Flexible Average Inflation Targeting
  • 4:30pm: Fed’s Evans Discusses the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

President Trump once again took control of the headlines yesterday when he tweeted late in the US session that he had instructed White House negotiators to stop further US stimulus discussions with Congressional Democrats until after the election. He argued that Speaker Pelosi was not arguing in “good faith” and that he wants Congress to focus on the Supreme Court nomination of Judge Barrett instead. This came as a surprise after relatively positive headlines from Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin earlier in the week, and also represented a reversal in tone given comments late Monday from White House Chief of Staff Meadows, who said “There are a lot of people that continue to hurt, are waiting on stimulus, and the President’s committed to getting a deal done…He wants to make sure we move expeditiously, but also in a fiscally responsible manner.”

The tweet also came just a few hours after Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the NABE’s annual meeting. While not much new information was proffered, Powell made one of his plainest cases for fiscal stimulus yet, saying “the risks of policy intervention are still asymmetric”, and that “the risks of overdoing it seems, for now, to be smaller” compared with the risks of offering too little support. If the current polling at both the national and state level holds, and former Vice President Biden were to win the election in November, fiscal stimulus may indeed come but will have to wait until Q1 of next year when a new government is seated. Even though many observers had attributed a low probability to an agreement prior to the election given the short timeframe and the negotiating distance between the two groups, the President’s comments rippled through markets late in the US session.

The S&P 500 dropped over 2.05% in the last hour and a half of trading after the tweet. By the close the S&P 500 was down -1.40%, with the NASDAQ down slightly more at -1.57%. The VIX volatility index rose +1.5pts to 29.5, the highest level since early September. The news also caused the US Dollar to rise 0.33% intraday to finish the day up +0.19%, just the second gain in the last seven sessions. Yesterday we said that markets were starting to look through the likely lack of short-term stimulus and were instead focusing on the prospect of more stimulus after the increased likelihood of a Democratic clean sweep. The late price action last night suggests otherwise but I would still say that further evidence that this election will result in a definitive result will offset any short term stimulus disappointment.

Overnight President Trump is slightly softening his stance as he called for support for airlines and the Paycheck Protection Program in a Tweet. On individual checks, he tweeted that ‘If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now. Are you listening Nancy?’. He also tweeted that he supports $25bn aid for airlines to support payroll and $135bn for the Paycheck Protection Program aimed at small businesses. This likely indicates that the President is still up for a skinny deal with the Democrats before the election. These tweets have helped S&P 500 futures rally over half a percent from the session lows to trade broadly flat at +0.05%.

Sticking with the US, the House panel draft report on sweeping reforms of the technology sector that we had mentioned yesterday has been proposed overnight. The House antitrust subcommittee recommends the most dramatic proposal to overhaul US competition law in decades, and could lead to the breakup of tech companies if approved by Congress. The findings target four of the biggest US tech companies – Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple – describing them as gatekeepers of the digital economy that can use their control over markets to pick winners and losers while also abusing power to snuff out competitive threats. As things stand the report has been largely shunned by the Republicans but could be a marker for the future if we indeed get a Democrats sweep in the election, as polls are leaning towards.

Asian markets are trading mixed this morning with the Nikkei (-0.22%) down while the Hang Seng (+0.46%) is up and India’s Nifty (+0.01%) is broadly flat. In Fx, the US dollar is up a further +0.17% after yesterday’s +0.18% advance. Meanwhile, European futures point to a weaker open after these markets missed the late US dip last night, with the Stoxx 50 -0.50%, FTSE 100 -0.16% and Dax -0.43% all down. Before this the STOXX 600 managed a +0.07% gain yesterday, led by recent laggards Banks (+3.37%) and Travel & Leisure (+2.95%), while pandemic winners like Health Care (-0.96%) and Technology (-0.81%) were the among the biggest decliners.

Back to the US election and though there had been speculation that the second presidential debate on October 15 might not be held depending on the timing of the President’s quarantine, Trump tweeted yesterday that “I am looking forward to the debate on the evening of Thursday, October 15th in Miami. It will be great!”

Speaking of debates, tonight the Vice Presidential debate take place at 21:00 ET between incumbent VP Mike Pence and California Senator Kamala Harris. There’ll be a number of Covid-related changes however, including plexiglass barriers between the candidates and the moderator, while the candidates will now be seated 12 feet apart rather than 7. Like the last debate it’ll be 90 minutes long, though broken down into 9 smaller segments of 10 minutes each. President Trump remains over +8pts behind former Vice President Biden in national polling averages, though recent polls have started to show Biden possibly increasing that lead, notably CNN (+15pt) and WSJ/NBC (+14pts). Pennsylvania, the state where Biden was born and the state that fivethrityeight.com’s model currently calculates has the best chance of being the tipping point of the electoral college, has Biden up by +6.5pts on average.

If you want more insight into the polls, don’t miss the latest DB speaker series invite “Who is going to win the 2020 US Presidential election?” – with US polling experts Amy Walter, National Editor, The Cook Political Report; G. Elliott Morris, data journalist for The Economist and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief DB US Economist. This is on Tuesday, 13 October 2020 at 3pm BST/4pm CET/10am ET, and is a live video call. Register here

On the coronavirus, there were further concerning signs out of Western Europe yesterday as cases continued to rise. Here in the UK a further 14,557cases were reported as cases have remained stubbornly above the 10k mark in recent days. This increase is now evident in hospital admissions too, and in England the numbers in hospital rose to 2,783 yesterday, which is their highest number since late June (though for context still well below the peak above 17k back in April). France reported 10,489 new cases yesterday with the 7 day rolling average rising back above 12,000 for the first time in 8 days. Cases in the Netherlands have risen over 25,000 over the past week, the highest of the pandemic. Elsewhere, Italy reported a further 2,677 cases, and the country’s health minister said that there was consideration over making the use of masks outdoors compulsory. Of the most severely hit first wave countries, Italy has certainly done the best relative job in minimising a second wave. In the US, there continues to be action in New York City to contain the outbreaks. Governor Cuomo has closed businesses and schools in some regions of the city and outlaying suburbs for 14 days, with different levels of restrictions based on distance from the “hotspots”. See the table below for the latest global case numbers. Meanwhile, in a widening out break at the White House, Stephen Miller, a senior adviser to the US President, became the latest White House staffer overnight to test positive for the coronavirus.

On the vaccine front the US Food and Drug Administration notified coronavirus vaccine developers yesterday that it would want at least two months of safety data before the agency would authorize it for emergency use. This requirement would likely push any availability of a US vaccine well past the Nov. 3 elections. Overnight, President Trump has accused the FDA of carrying out a “political hit job” against him by setting new vaccine review guidelines.

Over in the fixed income sphere, there was a further narrowing in sovereign bond spreads between core and periphery in Europe, and by the session’s close, the spread of Italian 10yr yields over bunds had fallen a further -3.4bps to reach its tightest closing level in over 2 years, at 1.28%. Italian BTPs have performed strongly lately, and the country’s 5-year yields actually fell -2.9bps to an all-time low yesterday of 0.163%. Bunds were unchanged. US 10yr Treasury yields fell -4.6bps lower, mostly after Trump’s tweet but are back up +1.3bps this morning.

Sterling had another volatile session yesterday as a number of further headlines on Brexit came through. The initial selloff was sparked by a Bloomberg report which said that the EU was not planning to make any concessions before next week’s summit of EU leaders – which a month ago Prime Minister Johnson had previously set as the deadline for reaching an agreement. According to the report, the EU was prepared to let the talks continue into November or December and call Johnson’s bluff on whether to break off talks and leave without a deal or stay at the negotiating table beyond his self-imposed deadline. Sterling recovered later on however on some more positive Reuters headlines, which said that the talks last week on Brexit were “one of the most positive so far”, and that the two sides were close to an agreement on reciprocal social security rights.

In terms of yesterday’s data, the US trade balance for August showed the country’s trade deficit widened to its largest since 2006, with a $67.1bn deficit. Other data showed that the number of job openings fell in August to 6.493m, which is the first decline since April. Finally in Europe, German factory orders rose by a stronger-than-expected +4.5% in August (vs. +2.8% expected), and the country’s construction PMI fell deeper into contractionary territory with a 45.5 reading.

To the day ahead now, and the highlight will likely be the Vice-Presidential Debate in the US later on. Otherwise, we’ll get the FOMC’s minutes from their September meeting, and hear from the ECB’s Lagarde, Villeroy, and the Fed’s Rosengren, Bostic, Kashkari, Williams and Evans. Finally, the data highlights include August data on German industrial production, Italian retail sales and US consumer credit.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 262.21  OR 1.09%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 10.91 POINTS OR 0.05%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.22%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 39.68 dollars per barrel for WTI and 41.81 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7331 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

White House Targets Ant Group, Tencent Payment Systems As Economic Assault On China Continues

As Beijing complains that the WTO that the Trump Administration’s attempt to ban TikTok violates international trade rules, the Trump Administration isn’t slowing down in its economic assault on the Chinese technology industry.

According to media reports, the administration is considering new restrictions on Ant Group and Tencent’s payment systems.

Stocks dumped on the headline, but the gap has filled fast.

By specifically going after the payment systems, the Trump Administration is taking a different approach on trying to curtail Chinese tech firms’ access to American markets and consumers. An American judge has already blocked the administration’s attempt to bar Tencent’s WeChat app from American app stores (while still allowing US companies like Apple to work with WeChat in foreign markets).

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/EU

Boris Johnson is now threatening to walk way from Brexit talks if no deal by the end of next week

(zerohedge)

UK Threatens To “Walk Away” From Brexit Talks If No Deal By End Of Next Week

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has pressed ahead with his Intermarket Bill, calling Brussels’ bluff about its threats to sue London over what many have described as a unilateral violation of an international treaty.

As Brussels  presses ahead with a drawn-out and tedious legal action – which will ultimately come to nothing since a decision might not arrive until after the transition period ends Dec. 31 – allowed per the resolution mechanisms hashed out in the withdrawal agreement, Johnson is once again drawing a line in the sand, upping the pressure by declaring Oct. 15 – ie a week from Thursday – as the UK’s deadline for a deal. Otherwise, it will walk away.

“We do need to be in a position where we’re able to provide certainty to businesses as to what the terms of our future trading relationship with EU are going to be, and we do believe that we need to be able to give clarity on whether or not there’s going to be a deal by the 15th of October,” the spokesman said.

The EU insists that it won’t be pressured into concessions, and that they’re also preparing for ‘no deal’ and are prepared to call BoJo’s bluff. Bloomberg reported, citing an anonymous official from No. 10, that BoJo was “serious” about walking away…but anonymous comments like this should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

Meanwhile, Michael Gove, a top official in Johnson’s government, told Parliament that HMG is stepping up preparations for a no-deal scenario when its transition deal with the European Union expires. While the government would prefer a deal with Brussels, it refuses to be “held hostage”.

“No one would be happier than me if we could conclude an agreement, but we have an absolute obligation to ensure that the country is ready in the event that we don’t,” Gove told a parliamentary committee.

Gove added that no-deal planning was being undertaken to ensure “that this country is not held hostage in a negotiation process.”

Meanwhile, In the Republic of Ireland, the only EU member to share a land border with part of the UK, Foreign Minister Simon Coveney warned on Wednesday that it would be difficult to envision a compromise that would satisfy both Ireland and the EU’s other Atlantic member states, along with Britain.

“This is a big obstacle and I don’t think the British government should underestimate the strength of feeling on fishing of many of the Atlantic member states,” he said.

Though as we’ve learned in the past, the mood of Brexit talks can change on a time. Boris Johnson said last week that he was “pretty optimistic” that deal would be struck. However, the last round of formal talks ended without a deal last week. And while both sides insist that they’re committed to finding common grand, many fraught areas of disagreement remain, including the fisheries issue mentioned above. Aside from fisheries, the other main issue for the UK is rules on state subsidies. For more on this, Politico has published a comprehensive guide to what might happen if ‘no deal’ becomes a reality.

British trade minister Liz Truss offered an apt summary of the UK’s negotiating position during an interview Wednesday on BBC radio, where Tess insisted that a deal with the European Union is “do-able”, so long as the bloc remembers where the UK is coming from. “A deal is absolutely do-able. We know the type of deal we want, it’s the deal that Canada has with the EU,” Truss said.

The pound weakened against the dollar Wednesday suggesting that markets are taking Johnson’s threat seriously. To be sure, if we’ve learned anything from the last three years, it’s that both sides need to run out the clock, since both the EU27 and BoJo have a political interest in convincing their electorates that they managed to win hard-fought concessions from the other.

end

FRANCE//TURKEY/AZERBAIJAN/ARMENIA

France confirms Turkish military involvement in the Nagorno Karabakh region.

(zerohedge)

France Confirms Turkish ‘Military Involvement’ In Karabakh After NATO Appeal Mocked

Just yesterday NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on Turkey to use its “considerable influence to calm tensions” between Armenia and Azerbaijan as fierce fighting continues in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh breakaway region.

The appeal was widely mocked by commentators in the West as well as in Armenian media, given it’s been well documented since the start of the conflict that Turkey has been a party to the conflict in backing its declared “brother country” Azerbaijan. And of course there’s the historic Armenian Genocide which caused many to laugh at the strange NATO appeal, as if Turkey is somehow ‘neutral’.

France has joined in the controversy over alleged Turkish intervention, as according to the AFP French government sources are now formally charging there’s evidence of Turkish ‘military involvement’ in Karabakh.

This comes nearly a week after French President Emmanuel Macron issued statements suggesting Turkish involvement in transferring Syrian mercenaries to the war theater.

“We now have information which indicates that Syrian fighters from jihadist groups have (transited) through Gaziantep (southeastern Turkey) to reach the Nagorno-Karabakh theatre of operations,” Macron told reporters on arrival at an EU summit last week. “It is a very serious new fact, which changes the situation.”

Macron’s office later said after talks with Russia’s Putin that “They [Russia] also shared their concern regarding the sending of Syrian mercenaries by Turkey to Nagorno-Karabakh,” according to a statement.

Following this, Armenia’s defense ministry had reported one of its fighter jets was downed over Armenian territory after it was fired upon by a Turkish F-16 jet which had taken off from Baku. The legitimacy of the allegation was never backed up by either the Europeans or other international observers. Turkey had adamantly denied claims that the Sept. 29 shootdown had anything to do with a Turkish jet.

Meanwhile the US, France, and Russia have jointly called for an immediate ceasefire and for both sides to come to the negotiating table.

Currently Armenia has reportedly mustered reserve forces and continues sending national troops to the frontlines, where Azerbaijan forces continue shelling cities in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

According to recent Armenian military figures, there are nearly 300 deaths among its armed forces, while casualties among civilians are likely in the hundreds on both sides.

But amid the fog of war the number of casualties has not been regularly reported, especially on the Azeri side.

Putin also expressed “hope” that the Karabakh “tragedy” will end soon. It should be noted that while Turkey has close ties with Muslim majority Azerbaijan, Russia has a military defense pact with Orthodox Christian Armenia, as well as a major military base within its borders.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Strange!! without real evidence France and Germany are ready to push for more EU sanctions against Russia much to delight of Trump

(zerohedge)

end

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/USA /GLOBE

Eli Lilly Seeks Emergency FDA Approval For Antiviral; Italy Mandates Masks Outdoors, NFL Outbreak Grows: Live Updates

Summary:

  • Italy calls for masks worn outdoors
  • Brussels closes bars
  • Eli Lilly asks FDA for emergency approval for antiviral
  • Patriots Stephen Gilmore tests positive, along with 2 more Titans

* * *

In the face of growing evidence that wearing masks outdoors isn’t an effective strategy for combating the spread of COVID-19 (the CDC, at the behest of the WHO, has acknowledge that aerosol transmission is only a major risk factor in ‘poorly ventilated’ areas), Italy is following through with plans to impose mandatory mask requirements across the country, part of a wave of rollbacks sweeping across Europe as the long-feared fall “second wave” appears to crest.

Italy’s top public health officials imposed the mandatory mask order, the latest in a series of rollbacks in Italy aimed to try and tamp down a resurgence of the virus. Italy’s council of ministers also voted to extend a state of emergency first imposed in March through the end of January, according to ANSA.

Effective immediately, the council also approved a new requirement for Italians to wear masks outdoors whenever they’re near people who do not live together, ANSA added.

The measures arise as Italy’s leaders extend and reshape the country’s emergency measures to account for the resurgence.

But Italy wasn’t alone in adopting new measures on Wednesday. As an outbreak roars in Brussels, the de facto capital of the EU, the Belgian capital decided to reinstate its lockdown conditions, closing all bars immediately for the second time.

Restaurants serving meals at a table can remain open, but bars and drinking in public will be banned until at least Nov. 8. Belgium, which has a surprisingly high mortality rate (the highest in Europe, and second only to Peru globally), has seen an alarming spike not just in new cases but in hospital admissions, which many fear could lead to another surge in deaths.

As infection rates surge in the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s “localized lockdown” strategy has come under attack from opposition Labour MPs, including Keir Starmer, the party’s new leader. Roughly 25% of Britons are currently living under restrictive virus-related restrictions.

Poland and the Czech Republic both registered record numbers on Wednesday – Poland reported record deaths for the second straight day, while the Czech Republic reported its largest daily jump in new cases, with 4,457 new positive tests over the prior 24 hours – as the outbreak spreads in Central Europe.

Deaths in Iran have continued to surge, with the Islamic Republic reporting another 239 deaths with another 4,274 people in critical condition. With his country in the grip of a full-blown outbreak, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani begged the international community to loosen sanctions on Iran’s economy to help alleviate the country’s suffering.

Moving on to the US, the biggest COVID-19-related news out Wednesday morning concerns the NFL. After quarterback Cam Newton tested positive the other day, NFL Network reports that Patriots star cornerback Stephen Gilmore has tested positive as well.

Gilmore’s positive test is the first since the team traveled to Kansas City on Monday night to play the Chiefs, a game that had been originally scheduled for Sunday.

that another player has tested positive. Additionally, two more players on the Titans have been sickened, the latest in an outbreak that has sickened 20 players and personnel. The team’s game with the Bills on Sunday is now in jeopardy, which could create serious problems for the team’s schedule.

Finally, Eli Lilly shares rallied in premarket trade as the company asked the FDA for emergency authorization for its COVID-19 antibody drug, with the company telling regulators it could supply 1 million doses of the drug this year. The treatment is aimed at people with mild to moderate COVID-19. A new study shows that the drug combined with another antibody reduced viral load, symptoms and hospitalizations in patients. It’s similar to the Regeneron treatment taken by President Trump.

end

The changing normal

According to the UN travel tourism organization we have experienced over 60% a collapse in tourism started in mid-March with the lockdowns. One can assume the loss in tourism will lead to civil unrest, as at least 100 million jobs if not more have been lost in countries like Greece, Spain and various island countries have lost not just a major driver of economic stability but also have seen the indirect impact on real estate values and thus the liquidity of such holdings as Travel has ground to a halt, resulting in stranded assets. Where capital losses have not yet shown their true extent. The real extent of impact will take a year or two to flush out, with such assets experiencing a pronounced decline in value. As without travel the value of such assets no longer provides easy access nor continued stability of value. And one does wonder what major destination cities like Barcelona who experience more tourists than residents will do to keep their cities vibrant? Let alone what changes to life will occur for those dependent on vanished tourists. And cities reliant on business travelers from Las Vegas to London will experience very real losses that will and are widespread.

Every week one reads of hotels in trouble and devastation in the airline industry with countless jobs being lost and it is likely such jobs will not return causing a pronounced impact and affect on everything from consumption towards transporter purchases going forward. Try flying direct to San Francisco for a weekend and see the bizarre routing, as it no longer is a simple exercise.  It is likely that we have not seen the true extent of the airline bankruptcies which should become more evident by the summer of 2021. This further translates into real impact on travel agents and travel related businesses like American Express which no doubt is experiencing a profound impact along with other credit card companies. Some people tell me the travel industry has been set back 45 years, while others share  horror stories about the ability to find connecting flight to reach destinations that in the past were taken for granted. This said new meaning to the term “road warrior”.

These times  have certainly become ones of upheaval in constant change with twisting realities affecting far more people than one would imagine. Stability and normality although just months ago seems very distant and is unlikely to return anytime soon as this fallout works its’ way through to some end point. It is no wonder, that many people are willing to find peace and tranquillity in this storm of of upheavals in their homes which are becoming the new sanctuaries forgoing what once was.

Cheers
Robert

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1771 UP .0034 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

USA/JAPAN YEN 106.02 UP 0.382 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2877   DOWN   0.0007  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.3289 DOWN .0031 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSL BY 34 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1771 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 262.21 OR 1.09% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1,22%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 262.21 OR 1.09% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.22% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 10.91  POINTS OR 0.05%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1889.00

silver:$23.61-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.779% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.580 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 93.65 DOWN 3 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.23% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.04.%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.24%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.79 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 55 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.49% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.87% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1768  UP     .0030 or 30 basis points

USA/Japan: 105.96 UP .326 OR YEN DOWN 33  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2915 UP .0033 POUND UP 33  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 41 basis points to 1.3281

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (XXX)..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.73110  (YUAN up)..

TURKISH LIRA:  7.8845  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.04%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 0.771 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.567 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.61 down 7  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 3.69  0.06%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 22,55 POINTS OR .17%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 13.46 POINTS 0.27%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 23.80 POINTS or 0.35%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 26.10 POINTS OR 0.38%

WTI Oil price; 39.58 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 41.56 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    78.28  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.05 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 5 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.49 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price f0r Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  40.04//

BRENT :  42.04

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.784..up 4 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.592 up 5 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1764 ( UP 28   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:106.02 UP .386 (YEN DOWN 39 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.66 DOWN 2 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2913 UP 30  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 7.880

the Russian rouble 78.03   UP 0.31 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 31 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3266 UP 55 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.49%

The Dow closed UP 530.70 POINTS OR 1.91%

NASDAQ closed UP 209.99 POINTS OR 1.88%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  28.20 CLOSED DOWN 1.28

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.229%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Massive Short-Squeeze Reverses Trump-Tweet Losses, Bond Vol Explodes

The last two weeks visualized…

“Most Shorted” stocks soared today by the most in a month (8th squeeze in last 9 days), instantly erasing all of yesterday’s shock losses from Trump’s ‘no-deal’ tweets…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the biggest squeeze since June…

Source: Bloomberg

And that was enough to send stocks back above Trump tweet collapse levels yesterday…

We do note that while today was a big day for the stock markets overall, none of them managed to actually close above the Trump tweet levels from yesterday…

The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all bounced off their 50DMAs…

Cyclicals perfectly erased yesterday’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Yesterday’s sudden shock in bond yields sent expectations for bond market volatility soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

And, while we are not huge fans of %age shifts in vol charts (especially off record lows), the following chart gives some context for the shift in vol (h/t @TaviCosta)…

Source: Bloomberg

However, while ‘bond rout’ chatter was everywhere, some yield context is key…

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in yields today erased all of the yield drop yesterday…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields pushed up to 79bps, notably only extending momentum modestly after FOMC Minutes…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar erased yesterday’s Trump-driven spike…

Source: Bloomberg

Another day, another record low in the Turkish Lira…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was unable to recover all of yesterday’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold jumped overnight after Trump’s Airline/PPP tweet, back above $1900, before fading back to unchanged

WTI bounced back up to $40 despite DOE data confirming a crude build as stocks dragged the energy complex higher…

Finally, while real yields are rising once again, we note that the correlation to gold has weakened notably…

Source: Bloomberg

end

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

MARKET TRADING//USA

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

FOMC Minutes Show Fed Assumed More Fiscal Aid In 2020, “Some” See Need To Revise QE In The Future

Since the last FOMC meeting on Sept 16th, gold has been the biggest loser while the USD managed modest gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, the very modest gain in stocks was thanks to a huge short-squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, despite The Fed promising that rates are on hold for pretty much ever, the market’s expectations for Dec 2021 have shifted hawkishly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

And real yields have risen significantly…

Source: Bloomberg

As we noted earlier, while the Minutes will likely reinforce the recent run of Fed commentary (more fiscal stimulus needed, uncertainties ahead, rates not going anywhere any time soon, etc) the market will be paying particular attention to any remarks on the Fed’s QE purchases, especially since the chances of fiscal help (and thus Treasury supply that would need to be monetized by The Fed) has all but evaporated.

Also, as a reminder, the meeting was unusually contentious with two dissents (one dovish – Kashkari, one hawkish – Kaplan).

One critical item in these minutes will be to see how reliant the Fed’s forecasts were on fiscal stimulus given the news in the last 24 hours on that front.

Reaffirming the lower-forever rates forecast, minutes show Fed officials laid out a three-part test that must be met before they consider lifting short-term rates from near zero.

  • First, they need to be satisfied that labor-market conditions meet their maximum employment goals, which weren’t spelled out.
  • Second, inflation must reach 2%.
  • Third, they will need some evidence—from forecasts or market-based measures—that inflation will continue to run moderately above 2%.

So essentially the “no change until at least 2023” takeaway that most had from the Fed decision last month isn’t set in stone.

“Participants generally noted that outcome-based forward guidance for the federal funds rate of this type was not an unconditional commitment to a particular path. Indeed, outcome-based guidance of this type would allow the public to infer changes in the Committee’s assessment of how long the target range for the federal funds rate would remain at its current setting.”

Additionally, and most notably, given ZIRP forever, some participants also noted that in future meetings it would be appropriate to further assess and communicate how the Committee’s asset purchase program could best support  the achievement of the Committee’s maximum employment and price-stability goals.

Regarding asset purchases, participants judged that it would be appropriate over coming months for the Federal Reserve to increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency MBS at least at the current pace. These actions would continue to help sustain smooth market functioning and would continue to help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to  households and businesses.

Most ominously, Fed staff and many officials forecasts did indeed assume some more fiscal aid in 2020.

The staff’s forecast assumed the enactment of some additional fiscal policy support this year; without that additional policy action, the pace of the economic recovery would likely be slower.

On bubble fears:

“a couple of participants indicated that highly accommodative financial market conditions could lead to excessive risk-taking and to a buildup of financial imbalances.”

With regard to COVID:

“In the staff’s medium-term projection, the baseline assumptions included that the current restrictions on social interactions and business operations, along with voluntary social distancing by individuals and firms, would ease gradually through next year.

On Inflation:

“While the outlook for inflation was viewed as highly uncertain, a number of participants projected that inflation would run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective for a significant period before moving moderately above 2 percent for some time—consistent with the Committee’s revised consensus statement.

Participants still generally judged that the overall effect of the pandemic on prices was disinflationary.”

On Employment:

“The gains in employment over July and August were generally seen as larger than anticipated. Participants judged, however, that the labor market was a long way from being fully recovered.

They generally agreed that prospects for a further substantial improvement in the labor market would depend on a broad and sustained reopening of businesses, which in turn would depend importantly on how safe individuals felt to reengage in a wide range of activities.

Some participants noted that the majority of gains in employment so far reflected workers on temporary layoffs returning to work. These participants judged it as less likely for future job gains to continue at their recent pace, because a greater share of the remaining layoffs might become permanent.

Workers facing permanent layoffs were seen as more likely to need to find new jobs in different industries, and this process could take time, especially to the extent that these workers needed to be retrained.

The Fed has suddenly become more ‘woke’ than normal, worrying about the effect of the pandemic lockdowns on minority workers:

“Participants observed that lower-paid workers had been disproportionally affected by the economic effects of the pandemic. Many of these workers were employed in the service sector or other industries most adversely affected by social-distancing measures.

With a disproportionate share of service-sector jobs held by African Americans, Hispanics, and women, these groups were seen as being especially hard hit by the economic hardships caused by the pandemic.

Participants viewed fiscal support from the CARES Act as having been very important in bolstering the financial situations of millions of families, and a number of participants judged that the absence of further fiscal support would exacerbate economic hardships in minority and lower-income communities.

In addition, several participants observed that the effects of the pandemic were disrupting the supply of labor because of the need to care for children, many of whom were attending school virtually from home.”

And finally, The Fed discovers the perils of ‘reflexivity’:

“Information pointing to a weaker outlook for the economy and inflation would tend to lead to public expectations for a longer period at the current setting of the target range while information suggesting a stronger outlook for the economy and inflation would tend to lead to expectations for a shorter period at the current setting.”

*  *  *

Full FOMC Minutes below:

ii)Market data/USA

Not a good sign for growth in GDP: the consumer’s credit unexpectedly tumbles as Americans paid down their credit cards after the stimulus ended.  Spending is 70% of GDP

(zerohedge)

US Consumer Credit Unexpectedly Tumbles As Americans Paid Down Credit Cards After Stimulus Ended

Just as US consumer credit appeared to be normalizing, when it rose by a slightly lower than expected $12.250BN in July (since revised to $14.67), something unexpected happened: according to the latest Fed G.19 statement, in August consumer credit tumbled by $7.2BN, far below expectations of a $14BN increase, and the biggest contraction since May.

While non-revolving credit posted one more month of relentless growth, it increased by an unexpectedly weak $2.175 billion to a record $3.159 trillion, suggesting that debt-fueled spending on autos slowed drastically.

But the big surprise was the latest revolving credit – i.e., credit card – print, which reversed the July jump by $14.7 billion and contracted by a whopping $7.2 billion, the biggest drop since May’s $12 billion drop, and brought the total amount of outstanding credit card debt to $985 billion, far below the record $1.099 trillion hit in February.

The reversal is a harbinger of more economic pain because it came just as US consumer were aggressively drawing down on their savings, and suggests that US household spending – which traditionally fuels 70% of US GDP – turned surprisingly cautious after the fiscal cliff hit on July 31, when many Americans reversed their previous spending ways and instead resumed paying down their outstanding credit card balances clearly concerned about their future financial state.

end

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Michael Snyder has it right: Society is breaking down all around us

(Michael Snyder)

Snyder: Our Society Is In The Process Of Breaking Down All Around Us

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Have you noticed that people don’t treat one another with the same level of respect and civility that they once did?  Everywhere I look, people are treating one another badly, and this should greatly alarm all of us.  Perhaps we can blame some of this on the pandemic, because the restrictions that authorities have implemented around the nation have definitely put people in a bad mood.  And of course the fact that this is an election year is certainly not helping things.  But I am seeing people that are supposedly on the same side treating each other with extreme contempt.  Conservatives are fighting with conservatives, liberals are fighting with liberals, Christians are fighting with Christians, and over the past year I have been seeing families break up all over the place.  Hearts are growing so cold, and all of the strife and discord that we are witnessing makes me wonder what things will be like when economic conditions in this nation really start falling apart.

There is so much anger and frustration in the air right now, and we are definitely seeing this being reflected in the crime numbers.  For example, it is being reported that burglaries in San Francisco have risen 42 percent so far this year…

In San Francisco, burglaries are up 42% in the first 9 months of this year, compared to the same time period in 2019. In the Northern District, which includes Pacific Heights, the Marina, North Beach, and Cow Hollow, it’s up 59%. In the Mission, 79% and in the Richmond up 50%.

In some neighborhoods, the same criminals are returning over and over again, and things have gotten so bad that one local resident recently admitted that she “cannot sleep at night anymore”

Thieves are returning to the same homes and neighborhoods within the same week, sometimes only one day apart.

“It’s a big wave of crime right now. it’s home burglaries and this is scary. I cannot sleep at night anymore,” said Iryna Gorb.

I can’t even imagine what it must be like lying in bed wondering if this will be the night when the burglars will return again.

In addition to home invasions, San Francisco is seeing an alarming number of stores being hit as well

And it’s not just happening to homes. Video from a Pacific Heights’ Food Market a week and a half ago shows a suspect’s seen setting up a blow torch on the store’s glass.

When it doesn’t budge, he comes back and tries a throwing a planter to break in.

We are seeing similar scenes play out all over America on a nightly basis these days, and it is only going to get worse in the months ahead.

Over on the east coast, New York City has also seen a 42 percent rise in burglaries so far in 2020, and the number of shootings is up 91 percent

Year-to-date, there has been a 91% spike in citywide shooting incidents, a 42% increase in burglaries and a 33% decrease in hate crimes.

Considering the fact that hundreds of thousands of people have already moved out of New York City, there shouldn’t be that many people left to shoot, but these are the numbers that authorities are giving us.

And sometimes people are being murdered without a gun being used at all.  I have to admit that I was greatly disturbed when I recently heard what happened to one man on a Manhattan subway platform

A man has died after he was repeatedly stabbed in the legs following a dispute on a lower Manhattan subway station in New York City on Saturday, officials revealed.

The attack unfolded just before 3pm on the northbound J/Z train platform in Chambers Street Station, near to City Hall, where the victim, in his 20s, had been ensnared in an argument with another man, said to be in his 30s.

How cold does your heart have to be to attack someone like that?

Sadly, acts of extreme violence are happening in our major cities so frequently now that they barely make a blip in the news.  In the middle of the country, murders and shootings in Chicago are both up over 50 percent in 2020, and it is being reported that “dozens of children” under the age of 10 have been shot over the last nine months…

The Windy City – like others across the country – has seen an uptick in violent crimes this summer amid the coronavirus pandemic, mass layoffs and nationwide unrest. Murders and shootings are up 52% from the same time last year, according to police data, and dozens of children under 10 years old have been shot, some fatally.

This is what America has become.

We have become a place where children under the age of 10 are being shot on a regular basis.

Most of us depend on the police to protect us from this sort of violence, but they are being shot on a regular basis too.  Here is just one example that was in the news today

A shooting over the weekend left one Myrtle Beach police officer dead and another injured, according to a news release from the South Carolina Law Enforcement Division.

The officers were responding to a domestic violence call Saturday night. Authorities say shots were exchanged between them and a suspect after a confrontation.

The thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted on a daily basis is steadily disappearing, and it isn’t just happening in the big cities.

Some of the worst crimes of all are happening in less populated areas, and if you doubt this just check out this example.

For decades, we have been raising children in an environment in which traditional moral values have been relegated to the fringes of society, and so we should not be surprised that our society is now literally coming apart at the seams all around us.

And if you think what we have experienced so far is bad, just wait until we get a few more years down the road.

Chaos and violence in our streets has become the norm, and our society now teaches us that it is perfectly okay to hate one another.

Treating others the way that you want to be treated is such a simple concept, but it works.

Unfortunately, most of the population has rejected the simple values that once united our nation, and so our society will continue to fall apart all around us as we plunge into a deeply uncertain future.

END
With real rates rising, is the Fed preparing for a digital dollar?
a must read…
Tom Luongo

With Real Rates Rising, Is The Fed Preparing A Digital Dollar?

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

It pays today to never underestimate the venality of the people who think they run the world. It also pays to listen to them when they say the most outrageous things.

At virtual Jackson Hole this year FOMC Chair Jerome Powell redefined inflation for the third time in my lifetime. By removing the Phillips Curve from the landscape Powell will now guide monetary policy by the desire to create inflation expectations, a kind of first derivative of inflation under the mostly irrelevant Quantity Theory of Money (QTM).

I talked about Powell’s dilemma and why he had to make this change in a post right after that speech. And I outlined what the Austrian criticism of the QTM was — a myopic focus on the supply of money rather than the interplay of it with the demand for money.

The better definition of inflation expectations is to think of it as the velocity of human action.

Now I’m sympathetic, for argument’s sake, to define inflation expectations as the first derivative of action. If you expect things to get better than you may make choices which lead to lower time preference behavior which, in turn, boosts investment in larger projects and an expansion of the division of labor.

Economic growth.

But that growth is dependent on your starting point. If things truly suck, making things somewhat better doesn’t mean you’ll put a new roof on your house or start a new business but it may mean that you spend a little more money on better food.

Because of this systemic degradation of inflation expectations and the squeezing out of available investment capital, the Fed would always reach a point where it could not use interest rates to manipulate aggregate demand and boost GDP — Gross National Spending.

The economy always reaches a point where interest rates are irrelevant to creating confidence to take on new debt. I like to use the term ‘debt saturation’ to describe where we are.

Now with Jay Powell’s speech from virtual Jackson Hole, we have him openly admitting this, validating the Austrian criticism. And so, we have the new definition of inflation, freed from the shackles of the Phillips Curve.

It’s still all about prices today but now the Fed is admitting that the economy runs on the time preference of individuals rather than arbitrary definitions of full employment.

Powell uses the term ‘inflation expectations’ but time preference is still better.

This change by Powell was presaged by a recent white paper which Zerohedge and others brought to wide attention about creating inflation through helicopter money, so-called digital dollars.

This is nothing new now, we’ve been talking about this for weeks.

Those digital dollars will be given to you to spend and you won’t be able to convert them to physical cash. Cash will be sunsetted and there will be no hiding from whatever policy The Davos Crowd wants to implement.

To roll this ball forward there has to be a major impetus to change things and that means another phase to the financial crisis. So, with that in mind I bring you this tweet from Danielle DiMartino Booth from ten days ago, that finally showed up on my radar neatly reminding me that Twitter doesn’t have my best interests in mind.

Now why would the Fed be buying TIPS if not to manage inflation expectations?

TIPS are weird because both their price and their yield rise with rising inflation and conversely with deflation. Buying TIPS means the Fed is propping up their prices to tell everyone that real interest rates are not rising!

Pay no attention to the deflation behind the curtain!

But they are. And rising real yields is a real problem for the Fed if it wants to keep the monetary system from melting down globally. TIPS prices wouldn’t need supporting if real yields weren’t rising, which means inflation expectations are falling.

And what happened in the all-important 10-year Treasury market in recent days after the end of Q3 ended with a Fed-induced whimper?

Now we have nominal yields rising, TIPS prices supported and one of the winners over the past few days has been gold? Gold is supposed fall with rising real yields, and yet, it’s rising because this notion that the Fed is buying TIPS means we’re getting safe haven inflows, not investment inflows into gold.

This furthers the argument that gold only follows real yields when markets aren’t under stress. When faith in governments begin to fail for real, gold de-couples from financial assets of all types and trades to its own beat.

But back to this week’s bond market carnage. So, did the Fed finally stop buying TIPS or have we entered another short-lived reflation trade now that Q3 is behind us, thanks to Trump surviving COVID-19?

Or were the temporary positions taken by banks to manipulate their balance sheets for earnings unwound and that’s causing a shock to the yield curve because real rates are rising faster than the Fed can schlorp them up?

I think, honestly, it doesn’t matter no matter how explosive all of this may actually be. As the stimulus game of chicken continues on Capitol Hill the markets keep hoping for some sign of help. But the best they have is that Biden’s chances of winning the election are fading along with his cognition.

Wall St. may be coming out trying to spin a Biden victory as good for the markets but that would only be because Pelosi will blackmail them with endless stimulus and the promise of the new Fed e-dollar.

What’s clear now is the agenda I’ve outlined previously as the Democrats’ and The Davos Crowd’s strategy for the future. If you want to eat, give us all the power. If you want to keep your house, give us all the power.

And, more importantly, accept the new reality that is coming whether you like it or not. There’s a Great Reset coming and it won’t matter who you vote for.

Jay Powell is just the bag man, folks. He’s a bystander in all of this.

*  *  *

Join My Patreon if you want help navigating the Great Reset. Install the Brave Browser if you think Google is part of The Great Reset.

END

Will Trump go after Haspel?  She was the architect of the espionage against Trump with the aid of Stefan Halper

(Gatestone

CIA Director Gina Haspel And The British Role In The Anti-Trump Plot

Authored by Chris Farrell via The Gatestone Institute,

We have raised and discussed serious matters of fact and questions about the role of CIA Director Gina Haspel in the Anti-Trump conspiracy.

It appears Haspel (while serving as London Chief of Station from 2014 to early 2017) was an active, knowledgeable party to the efforts to target candidate Trump with an FBI-instigated foreign counterintelligence operation. That seditious conspiracy carried forward to a more sophisticated and aggressive plan to carry out a soft coup against President Donald J. Trump.

Looking back on news reporting concerning Haspel, we turn (with caution) to a Washington Post article from July 2019 by Scott Shane, titled: “The quiet director: How Gina Haspel manages the CIA’s volatile relationship with Trump”. We are supposed to believe that Haspel and her office did not cooperate with the reporter for the article. Shane disclaims Haspel involvement by writing:

“This report is based on interviews with 26 current and former officials who have worked with Haspel in the United States, particularly when she served in senior management roles at headquarters, and in London, where Haspel served two tours as the CIA’s top representative — chief of station — a plum post that is usually the steppingstone to the agency’s highest ranks.”

No Washington Post article in the last decade has contained such a scrupulous sourcing statement. Of course, Haspel had nothing to do with the article. Remember that, won’t you?

Haspel, twice-over Chief of Station in London, had close connections with the British intelligence and security services. Given the nature of the “special relationship” between the two countries, that is hardly surprising. Shane’s interviews of British intelligence officers take things a step further, however:

“… what she lacked in after-hours sociability she made up for with deep professional ties to the upper echelon of the British security establishment. ‘She had access to anyone in our service,’ the former British intelligence official said.”

Shane goes on to explain:

“Haspel has become the CIA’s linchpin to the Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6, its most important foreign partner. Her British colleagues say that she knows them so well — warts and all — that they call her the ‘honorary U.K. desk officer.'”

In the next paragraph, Shane notes breathlessly:

“… Trump has accused the United Kingdom of conspiring with American intelligence to spy on his presidential campaign.”

President Trump certainly has made that claim, and one believes for very good reasons that seem to compound weekly. Reasons that make the “intelligence community” and 95% of “official Washington” extremely nervous. It is the sort of statement that presidential aides and counsels look nervous about, wring their hands and respectfully, earnestly plead: “But Mr. President, you just can’t say that sort of thing!” Truth be damned.

Concurrent with the FBI’s anti-Trump foreign counterintelligence operation, launched from the United Kingdom (with Haspel’s affirmative “coordination”), keep in mind that the UK’s version of the National Security Agency — the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) — was engaged in an aggressive Signals Intelligence campaign later codified in UK law as the Investigatory Powers Act (and referred to colloquially as the “Snoopers’ Charter”). Having the British run an aggressive intelligence collection operation against Team Trump targets, bypassing US legal prohibitions, and then laundering the intelligence “take” back to US officials via the UK-US liaison relationship is precisely something an “honorary UK desk officer” might be good and adept at accomplishing.

Certainly, these subjects and questions deserve closer examination, without the phony prophylactic defense of grave warnings about “sources and methods.” No one examining the coup against President Trump is seriously interested in the precise technical collection techniques of GCHQ — they just want to know if the Brits were involved in an attempt to subvert a presidential campaign and then overturn the results of an election. CIA Director Gina Haspel can answer all of those questions, and she does not even have to touch upon classified information to do so. The American public is due her answers.

END

This is big!  Trump reauthorizes the declassification of all “Russia Hoax: documents

(zerohedge)

Trump Reauthorizes Declassification Of All ‘Russia Hoax’ Documents In Late-Night Tweetstorm

Authored by Sundance via the Conservative Treehouse

Last night, President Donald Trump transmitted an epic tweet-storm seemingly targeted toward all officials within the executive branch; and the intelligence apparatus writ large:

One important note of caution: there is a big difference between “authorized” and “ordered”. On May 23rd, 2019, President Trump authorized AG Bill Barr to declassify all documents and despite much optimism nothing happened {Go DEEP}. However, President Trump references that lack of inaction in the next series of tweets:

Presumably “people” who “acted very slowly” would pertain to AG Bill Barr, FBI Director Chris Wray, CIA Director Gina Haspel, State Dept Secretary Mike Pompeo and former ODNI Dan Coats. President Trump asks those agencies now to “Act!!!”

President Trump also expressed the same frustration many of us feel about how these agencies and institutions have operated only to protect their own interests. He even re-tweeted the meme of Bill Barr to drive home the point.

Whether anything comes of this latest, seemingly stronger, emphasis and request from President trump is an unknown. However, again, this is an authorization for release of documents and not a direct order.

There are likely legal reasons for this approach, and no doubt there are advisors around the office of the president who would want him to take a more cautious approach.

Several people are pointing toward an announcement of a press conference by the DOJ Wednesday morning and attempting to connect the tweet-storm to the presser. However, my gut tells me they are two distinctly different topics.

But we can keep our fingers crossed.

Whatever the case may be, we will receive the answer later this morning.

Interestingly, albeit likely unrelated, the specific participants in the presser hold offices that are directly connected to the previous 2019 indictment of Julian Assange.

END

Interesting!! BLM co founder claims Joe Biden is part of a violent “white supremacist system”

(zerohedge)

BLM Co-Founder Claims Joe Biden Is Part Of “Violent White Supremacist” System

Vice President Joe Biden would like America’s youth to believe that he has bent over backwards to ‘really listen’ to the demands of young progressives/cryptomarxists, including the activists in “Black Lives Matter”. Unfortunately for him, the transparent pandering hasn’t been all that convincing.

Even after Biden and his fellow Democrats tacitly indulged the worst excesses of these so-called “activists” – anarchic rioting and violence in cities big and small across American – it seems the former VEEP, who played second fiddle to America’s first black president for 8 years, has failed to win the BLM crowd over.

The latest evidence of this an be found in an ABC News interview with several young activists who are ‘still out in the streets’ peacefully protesting tell the press that they might consider voting for a third-party candidate instead of Biden.

While ABC also interviewed some young activists and organizers, one of the most prominent voices was Dr. Melina Abdulla, one of the co-founders of the original Black Lives Matter chapters. She still serves as the leader of the group’s Los Angeles chapter.

In the interview, Dr Abdulla lamented the fact that she is being forced to choose between two old white men who both represent America’s history of ‘violent racism’.

“People are feeling dismayed that the choices are between, you know, a violent white supremacist and another person who represents that same system,” she said,

Biden infamously said nothing about the violence unfolding in America’s streets until he realized that it was hurting him politically.

Another activist attacked Biden for being out of touch with the American proletariat.

“I think sometimes, Joe Biden and Trump, and our party, on both sides, are blinded by the struggles that the lower end of Americans are feeling today,” said South Carolina-based activist Lawrence Nathaniel of the group “I Can’t Breathe” before adding that he has been weighing the idea of casting his vote for a third-party candidate.

The report is merely the latest piece of evidence that Biden’s campaign has failed to garner enthusiastic support from leftists who supported his erstwhile primary rival, Bernie Sanders.

It just goes to show: trying to pander to the proponents of identity politics is merely a drain on political capital.

Watch the video below:

end
Michael Every..on the major events of today.
(Michael Every)

Front-Page Coverage For Years… It Now Refuses To Cover An Actual FBI Agent’s Quotes

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Stimulessness?

Trump may be short of breath but he is not short of moxie. For the nth day in a row, the headlines are all about him. This time because on Tuesday he tweeted (and not in ALL CAPS):

“Nancy Pelosi is asking for $2.4 Trillion Dollars to bailout poorly run, high crime, Democrat States, money that is in no way related to COVID-19. We made a very generous offer of $1.6 Trillion Dollars and, as usual, she is not negotiating in good faith. I am rejecting their request, and looking to the future of the Country. I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business. I have asked McConnell not to delay, but to instead focus full time on approving my outstanding nominee to the United States Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett. Our Economy is doing very well. The Stock Market is at record levels, JOBS and unemployment also coming back in record numbers. We are leading the World in Economic Recovery and THE BEST IS YET TO COME!”

So stimulus is over until the election(?) And so are Trump’s odds of winning it, according to the vast majority of the punditry. I don’t read what The Street says given it doesn’t even understand economics, let alone politics (and geopolitics is just a word it drops in to try to look sophisticated, in the way politicians wield “GDP” as if it is Excalibur rather than a wooden spoon.) However, The Street is apparently muttering Street-ily about a Democrat sweep. That could well be true. However, four years ago almost to the day the ‘Access Hollywood’ tape dropped. The polls this time four years ago also showed Clinton up 10-12 points in swing states like Pennsylvania. We have a month (and more) of crazy days and nights ahead of us yet and nothing is certain.

Indeed, could Trump need to keep his Republican base united and be confident enough in what his internal polls show on how fired up it is in the states he needs to win 270 electoral college votes that he is now aiming to retake the House as well as holding the Senate? It’s a view at least: he is saying if you vote for Republicans down-ticket, you get more stimulus.

Underlining this is hardball rather than the end of negotiation, his Tweet has forced skeptical senators to seeing USD1.6 trillion as OK rather than something unthinkable. Trump then retweeted Powell saying there is a need for fiscal stimulus now and a low risk of overdoing it; that Pelosi was the one playing games with workers, not him; that he is willing to provide a USD25bn clean bailout just for airlines and USD135bn for small business paycheck protection; and that “If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200) they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign now. Are you listening Nancy?” Trump could perhaps even use Executive Orders again to get some kind of stimulus through. In short, this is a long way from over. Even more so if the effect of Trump’s anti-Covid steroids wears off soon.

That remains true in Europe too, of course, where the ECB’s Lagarde and Lane are effectively arguing the EUR750bn that hasn’t even been cleared or spent yet now isn’t enough. Poor old Europe: always thinking it’s getting ahead of the curve and then finding every outfit it cobbles together is so last season. “Wait until geopolitics happens too,” he said Street-ily. So near and yet so far(?), PM BoJo was literally talking knobs and knockers at the online Tory conference, while promising all UK household electricity could be wind-powered by 2030. A lot of hot air there; or public spending. A similar dynamic in Australia, with the largest budget deficit since WW2 and not daring to try to balance it again until unemployment comes down. Yet due to low Aussie yields the public debt servicing ratio is projected to be lower in 2023 than it was in 2018. Meanwhile, as the ECB, BOE, and RBA all contemplate more rate cuts, one into negative territory, the Fed has underlined it will not be moving in that direction. Could someone kindly send a note on all the above to one Stephen Roach, or perhaps to his employers (either Yale, or China Postal Express and Logistics Co. Ltd, a subsidiary of a Chinese SOE, where he is a board member.)

The market certainly didn’t like the Trump stimulus news, of course, with US stocks closing down and 10-year Treasury yields dropping from an intraday high of 0.79% back to 0.73%. The US Dollar also went up. (Include that in the note to Roach.) As such let me, like a US secret service agent, strap on a hazmat suit and wade into the silliness of Streetiness: why did stocks and yields fall on that news, exactly?

If the prevailing view was already of a Democratic sweep in November with stimulus to follow, then surely the “ACB > stimulus” Tweet should have hammered home that meme and seen yields spike more in anticipation? Unless The Street is now seeing the House in play too for Trump….in which case the promise is again of stimulus after the election, so stocks and yields should still have gone up. Or is The Street guessing Trump will win the House and then not use stimulus? Such deep thoughts!

Might it be that The Street does not actually have much of a clue of what is really going on in the either the economy or the election, but just likes money flowing its way? And that Street journalists weave a jazz-hands narrative about it on a daily basis? (They are still saying “Stimulus is off!” this morning, for example.)

Which seems an appropriate segue to the other Trump spattering of tweets, on Russiagate, a scandal that keeps on giving. Naturally, the press who gave this front-page coverage over the past few years are now not covering quotes from one of the FBI agents involved stating the entire case was built on “supposition on supposition” and a “dumb theory”, while there “was no evidence of a crime”.Just as naturally, the press who didn’t cover the shocking allegations –and who can never be accused of supposition or dumb theories, honest– are now putting it on the front page. All very edifying, a

nd polarising. Like I said, weeks and weeks of this to go yet, folks.

Tonight is the Vice-Presidential debate, for example, between two VPs whose Ps have big Qs over their health. Apparently they are both going to be in plexiglass chambers. Innovation of sorts. I am sure a TV exec somewhere is wondering if we could include a feature to drop them into a shark tank for giving wrong answers: ‘Three lies and down you go’. It would probably boost viewership. Then again, the more rotund of candidates might manage to improbably get stuck in the tube, once again bunging up the cosy market narrative.

And all of that is a distraction from a Congressional report urging that US big tech be broken up for abusing its monopoly and monopsony power. Want to see big moves in stocks and bond yields? Try looking at those kind of structural changes….if they ever happen.

end
Pelosi is now open to standalone airline relief but not Americans hanging without any money to continue
(zerohedge)

Pelosi Open To Standalone Airline Relief; Direct Payments To Americans Left Hanging

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has signaled a willingness to consider a standalone airline relief bill during a Wednesday morning telephone conversation with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, after President Trump pulled the plug on broader stimulus negotiations until after the election.

The secretary inquired about a standalone airlines bill. The speaker reminded him that Republicans blocked that bill on Friday & asked him to review the DeFazio bill so that they could have an informed conversation,” tweeted Pelosi spokesman, Drew Hammill.

And while President Trump mentioned an airline standalone bill following a barrage of Tuesday tweets, Hammill made no mention of the $1,200 direct stimulus payments Trump said he would sign off on “IMMEDIATELY.”

According to Bloomberg, “Mnuchin’s call underscores the Trump administration’s concern about the state of the airline industry, which has been walloped by the Covid-19 crisis and seen tens of thousands of job cuts. Help for the carriers had been part of a broader coronavirus relief package negotiation, which Trump abruptly ended Tuesday.”

As Goldman Sachs notes, “Since the White House and Democratic leaders appear to support standalone airline relief legislation, enactment of another $25bn in airline aid looks increasingly likely.”

And if airline aid isn’t passed, soon, Q4 cash burn will accelerate an already-catastrophic backdrop for the industry thanks to the pandemic.

U.S. carriers have furloughed about 38,000 people since Oct. 1, including major layoffs at American Airlines Group Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. Those cuts followed the departure of 150,000 who left airlines voluntarily or accepted leave. Pelosi last week urged the airlines to postpone layoffs, promising that relief was imminent. –Bloomberg

Last Friday, House Transportation Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio attempted to pass an extension for airline aid by unanimous consent, but GOP lawmakers objected – saying they hadn’t been briefed on it.

And on Wednesday, Pelosi appeared on “The View,” where she said Trump made a “terrible mistake” by walking away from negotiations until after the election, because he “saw the political downside of his statement of walking away.”

end
Now our goof friends over at Wells Fargo begin their process of laying off workers: to start 700 jobs
(zerohedge)

Wells Fargo Cuts 700 Jobs As COVID-19-Inspired Bloodletting Begins

Roughly one week after Wells Fargo and a handful of other Wall Street banks announced plans to re-start layoffs now that their coronavirus-inspired (and, in some cases, PPP-inspired) moratoriums had come to an end, the San Francisco-based bank best known in recent years for scamming retail customers and botching small business refi loans has announced the first 700 layoffs in a scheme that will eventually cull tens of thousands of jobs.

According to Bloomberg, Wells is cutting 700 positions from its commercial-banking unit. The bank said the cuts will impact business lines across the division. The commercial banking division typically services businesses with at least $5 million in annual sales, according to a company spokeswoman.

That would suggest that Wells Fargo is cutting back more on the commercial banking side as it re-focuses on its consumer-banking strengths, like mortgages, amid a booming housing market and rock-bottom interest rates. 

Wells Fargo has long been the US banking industry’s largest employer, given its domestic, retail-oriented focus, and traditional dominance west of the Mississippi.

That Wells was the first US megabank to announce plans to re-start layoffs is hardly surprising: As Bloomberg notes, the bank is under enormous pressure to spend less after slashing its dividend by 80% after Q2 earnings sank deep into the red.

As if the coronavirus-sickened economy and low interest rates weren’t enough, Wells is still operating with the albatross of a Federal Reserve cap on balance sheet growth (which had to be eased earlier this year so the bank could participate in the ‘Paycheck Protection Program’).

To be sure, not all of CEO Charlie Scharf’s projected cost-savings will come from layoffs: the bank expects “to reduce the size of our workforce through a combination of attrition, the elimination of open roles and job displacements,” one Wells spokeswoman told Bloomberg.

“We are at the beginning of a multiyear effort to build a stronger, more efficient company for our customers, employees, communities and shareholders,” Ellis said in a statement. “As part of this work, we will have impacts, including job reductions, in nearly all of our functions and business lines, including commercial banking, where we have started displacements.”

end
This is good!! Trump has been 24 hours free of COVID 19 and also they have detected COVID 19 antibodies
(zerohedge)

Trump Has Been ‘Symptom Free’ For 24 Hours As Labs Detect COVID-19 Antibodies, Doctors Say

In the latest update on President Trump’s condition, Navy Commander Dr. Sean Conley revealed that Trump hasn’t had a fever in 4 days, and that he’s been symptom-free (aside from a few brief bouts of ‘roid rage-inspired tweeting) for 24 hours.

Trump’s vital signs, including oxygen saturation, are all normal, and Trump hasn’t needed any supplemental oxygen since his blood-oxygen level dropped below 94% on Friday.

Notably, the president’s labs have begun to detect the presence of antibody production, compared with his initial positive Thursday night, where antibodies weren’t detected.

The news comes as CBS News reports that Trump and his team have recorded another video of Trump – this time from inside the White House (Trump is supposed to be confined to the West Wing) – and are reportedly weighing whether to publish it.

Meanwhile, aides for the president have told reporters that Trump is still insisting on debating Joe Biden in person next week. There’s even been talk of agreement on using safety precautions like plexiglass.

With the presidential calendar still blank, Trump has been firing off tweets at a pretty steady clip all day, slowing only slightly as we head into the afternoon.

James Rickards lays it out perfectly the various scenarios
(James Rickards)

Get Ready For Chaos

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

There’s less than a month until Election Day. Once the votes are in, the die will be cast for the next four years, perhaps longer. Trump or Biden? The difference could not be more clear, and the stakes could not be higher for you and your investments.

Again, this is the most consequential election of our lifetime.

If that sounds like an overstatement, it’s not.

If Trump wins, he may actually be able to finish his task of cleaning out Deep State actors, reducing regulation and taxes, securing U.S. energy independence, facilitating peace in the Middle East and finally bringing U.S. troops home from multi-decade wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

If Biden wins, brace yourself for higher taxes, the end of fracking, the Green New Deal, free tuition, free healthcare and free child care (of course, none of this is truly “free,” it’s just paid for with more debt financed by higher taxes or more money printing).

In a Trump administration, the decoupling from China will continue, and China’s ability to spy on the U.S. and steal our best ideas will be curtailed.

If Biden wins, it will be back to business as usual with China stealing U.S. jobs, stealing U.S. intellectual property and cheating on their obligations to the World Trade Organization and the IMF.

This list of policy differences goes on, but those differences are not even the most important distinction between Trump or Biden in the White House. The main difference is that the country will set out on two entirely different paths depending on the outcome.

In that sense, this will be the most consequential election since 1860, when a vote for Lincoln pointed toward a possible Civil War because the South had already made its intentions clear if Lincoln won.

Today, the Rebels are not Southern secessionists. They are home-grown neo-Marxists, anarchists, thugs and goon squads who are rioting and looting daily in scores of U.S. cities.

If Trump wins, you can expect to find U.S. cities in flames within 24 hours of the election results. If Biden wins, the neo-Marxists will have a seat at the table in the form of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as they insist on full implementation of their agenda.

This includes higher taxes, higher spending, more regulation and permanent changes to U.S. governance in the form of an end to the Electoral College, a packed Supreme Court (by expanding the number of justices), single-party rule in the Senate (by ending the filibuster) and more.

Think that’s bad? It gets worse. The two paths involving riots or left-wing governance depend on someone winning. What if there is no winner?

Millions of votes are being cast in the form of mail-in ballots. State counting systems have broken down lately when they had to count a few hundred thousand ballots in close races. What happens when the ballots are in the tens of millions?

Secretaries of State in swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be ordered by Democratic governors not to certify the results. Armies of lawyers will descend on courthouses demanding extending voting hours, impoundment of mail-in ballots and counting of all ballots regardless of postmarks, timely mailing, timely receipt and other formalities. Other lawyers will push back.

Neither side will concede. The outcome could be uncertain for weeks. The riots will continue in the meantime.

And if Biden does win, it’s entirely possible he won’t be president for more than a few months. His cognitive decline, probably the result of Alzheimer’s Disease or some other form of dementia, is already apparent to observers. I realize he performed well during his debate with Trump, but Alzheimer’s does not progress in a straight line.

The type of cognitive decline Biden is suffering is not a continuous downhill slide. It’s what’s called a “step function.” That means the mental ability drops suddenly, then stabilizes or plateaus for a while, then drops again. It never improves, but it can appear stable for a time until the next sudden drop comes.

It will be relatively simple to remove Biden from office under the 25th Amendment and install Kamala Harris as Acting President. This could be followed by a formal resignation by Biden, at which point Harris would become President.

This was hinted at on September 12 when Kamala Harris made reference to a coming “Harris Administration,” and again on September 15 when Joe Biden referred to the “Harris-Biden administration” at a campaign event.

These are not mere slips of the tongue, but rather a preview of the fact that a vote for Biden is really a vote for President Harris. Kamala Harris does not have the cognitive challenges of Joe Biden, but she is a malleable blank slate who will be easily handled by the radicals whom she supports.

Compared to disputed election results and the removal of Joe Biden (if he wins) coming so soon after the removal of Donald Trump (through mail-in ballot fraud), maybe a 39.6% capital gains tax doesn’t seem so bad. Actually, it should. It will tank the stock market as savvy investors get out ahead of the 2021 tax law change by selling stocks in late 2020.

All of these issues – taxes, regulation, foreign affairs, social unrest – are now playing out against the backdrop of the process to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court. That vacancy emerged when Justice Ginsburg passed away on the evening of September 18.

Trump has nominated Amy Coney Barrett, a judicial conservative who once clerked for Antonin Scalia. Those who oppose her fear she’s a threat to abortion rights and other causes supported by progressives.

A Supreme Court Justice confirmation fight is an intense political battle at the best of times. This has been true since the Robert Bork nomination to the Supreme Court by Ronald Reagan in 1987. The Senate rejected the Bork nomination, but that confirmation process set the standard for personal attacks and the extreme political invective that has been with us ever since.

This personal attack process was on full display in the confirmation hearing for Justice Brett Kavanaugh in the summer and fall of 2018. Many members of the Senate Judiciary Committee who engaged in the Kavanaugh attacks, including Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Kamala Harris and presidential candidates Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar, are still on that committee.

There is every reason to expect that this new confirmation process will be just as bitter and divisive as those for Bork and Kavanaugh. In the broader context, this is just another wild card in what has already been an unpredictable and contentious electoral year.

Uncertainty will reign until Election Day. Investors understand this. What is not as well understood is that uncertainty will continue to reign after Election Day.

  • If Trump wins, the Resistance will not take it well. They will challenge the outcome in court, deny the legitimacy of a Trump victory, and extreme elements in the Resistance will burn American cities.
  • If Biden wins, his behind-the-scenes handlers will come to the fore with demands for high taxes, more regulation, the Green New Deal and other elements of the Socialist and globalist agendas.

Markets are not fully priced for any of this. They’re not priced for anti-Trump chaos, and they’re not priced for the Bernie Bros’ hidden agenda that will be foisted on Biden.

Although markets may not be prepared, you should be. A reduced exposure to equities, an increased allocation to Treasury notes and cash, and a 10% portfolio allocation to gold will offer true diversification, high returns and be robust to the turmoil that is in store.

end
Expect fireworks out of Minneapolis tonight:  The officer that kneed George Floyd has been released after posting a one million dollar bail bond.
(zerohedge)

Derek Chauvin Freed After Posting $1 Million Bail

Derek Chauvin, the former Minneapolis Police Officer charged with murdering ex-con George Floyd after a confrontation outside a corner store, has posted $1 million bail, NBC News reports.

The news could trigger another wave of protests, as Floyd’s murder, caught on video depicting Chauvin callously pressing his knee into Floyd’s neck for more than 8 minutes, was widely credited as the spark that ignited the racial tensions sweeping the country this year.

Floyd’s death preceded a string of other police killings involving black men (some of them armed, some of them unarmed) – incidents that have garnered widespread press coverage and spurred even more violence in the streets of American cities.

44-year-old Chauvin is facing second-degree murder and manslaughter charges stemming from the May 25 incident.

Four officers filmed detaining Floyd have been fired from the department and charged with aiding and abetting murder in Floyd’s death.

Officers were responding to complaints of a $20 bill at a local convenience store when they encountered Floyd, who matched the description of the suspect.

The arrest led to a struggle, and at one point, all four officers were involved in trying to restrain Floyd. “Please, please, please, I can’t breathe,” Floyd begged in one video caught by a bystander. “My stomach hurts. My neck hurts. Please, please. I can’t breathe.”

Floyd’s death was ruled a homicide by the Hennepin County Medical Examiner, a death caused by “cardiopulmonary arrest complicating law enforcement subdual, restraint, and neck compression” along with other “significant” conditions like hypertensive heart disease, fentanyl intoxication and recent methamphetamine use.

Unsurprisingly, lefties took to Twitter to demand that whoever paid Chauvin’s bail be identified, while bemoaning the injustice of the justice system.

Note: these are the same people who, if prompted, claim they support “bail reform” to help root out inequality in the justice system.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries)

A must read.. Roger Simon explains why the CIA and the FBI must have full transparency or else….

Roger Simon/Epoch Times

Only Full Transparency Will Save The CIA And FBI Now

Authored by Roger Simon via The Epoch Times,

If The Federalist’s Sean Davis’ informants are even half right, director of the Central Intelligence Agency Gina Haspel is making a big mistake – for herself, for the CIA, and, above all, for the country.

Davis wrote:

“Haspel is personally blocking the declassification and release of key Russiagate documents in the hopes that President Donald Trump will lose his re-election bid, multiple senior U.S. officials told The Federalist. The officials said Haspel, who served under former CIA Director John Brennan as the spy agency’s station chief in London in 2016 and 2017, is concerned that the declassification and release of documents detailing what the CIA was doing during the 2016 election and the 2017 transition could embarrass the CIA and potentially even implicate Haspel herself.”

What Haspel seems to be missing here is that the CIA, and the FBI, of course, have already been embarrassed, greatly, their reputations tarnished almost beyond recognition with tens of millions of U. S. citizens by the Spygate/Russiagate scandal.

She and FBI director Christopher Wray, deluding themselves that they are protecting vital institutions of our society, are apparently waiting with the proverbial bated breath for a Biden administration so that all revelations and potential indictments that might come via John Durham and William Barr are flushed down the equally proverbial memory hole.

It won’t work. The only way to resuscitate those reputations is for them, Haspel and Wray, to be fully transparent, nowbefore the election.

Even if everything Durham and Barr are investigating is flushed away before reaching fruition, even if the Biden-Harris administration instantly installs a new attorney general and cleanses the DOJ and the intelligence agencies of all remnants of the dreaded Trump over night, tens of millions of Americans already know.

They have already seen at least parts of the story and they won’t forget. How could they?

They know their new president Joe Biden and many allied with him have been implicated in a treasonous plot of previously unheard of proportions to upend the prior administration.

These same people, these millions, now distrust the CIA and the FBI, and, to a great extent, their government. They consider these pivotal institutions their enemies, working against their interests and, more importantly, the interests of the country. And these people are some of the most deeply patriotic of all Americans.

What a situation for our county! How can we then function as a democratic republic?

Did Ms. Haspel think about that? Did Mr. Wray consider that as he withholds or endlessly redacts documents, allegedly to protect… who exactly?

(Wray has taken his desire for a Biden victory to such lengths that he tried to downplay the importance of Antifa.)

Haspel and Wray are doing the reverse of safeguarding their vital institutions. They are increasing public distrust of them, a distrust so great that many of us see our society moving inexorably in the direction of China, a high-tech tyranny of “social credit scores” and obedience to a Big Brother Orwell could never have conceived.

What is the road back from that?

We should be heartened, however, by reports today as President Trump was exiting from Walter Reed Hospital that the president was planning on declassifying and releasing many of these documents himself within days. His chief of staff Mark Meadows was said to have a briefcase stuffed with them. If so, Haspel and Wray, to use another old proverb, will have missed the boat. Everyone will know that their agencies need a thorough house cleaning and it will be done, as it should be, without them.

And I will add, although the media will shout the contrary to the hills, though this is October, revealing these documents is in no way an October Surprise. This is information We the People (remember them?) were owed years ago.

When you have been deliberately deceived, that’s no October Surprise. That’s justice.

end
Trump not happy about this:
zerohedge)

Trump Can’t Block Subpoena For Tax Returns, Appeals Court Finds

A federal appeals court rejected President Trump’s latest effort to block the Manhattan district attorney from getting eight years of his tax returns and other financial records, although in light of the recent – and now largely forgotten – NYT leak, does anyone care any more?

The ruling, from a three-judge panel for the Second Circuit Appeals Court affirmed a federal judge’s decision in August that rejected Trump’s claims that the subpoena from Manhattan Democrat District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. was overly broad and issued in bad faith. Despite the latest loss – Bloomberg points out that Trump has so far failed in all his courtroom efforts, including in the U.S. Supreme Court, to halt the criminal subpoena – it’s unlikely that the NY DA will obtain the records in the 27 days before the presidential election.

As a reminder, the Manhattan DA Office last year subpoenaed Trump’s accounting firm, Mazars USA, for the president’s personal and business tax returns and other financial records.  Trump initially challenged the subpoena by arguing that presidents have sweeping immunity from the criminal process but in July, the Supreme Court rejected that argument and sent the case back to the lower courts for further proceedings. Trump then filed a new complaint that argued that the subpoena is too broad and amounts to presidential harassment.

Trump’s final hope rests, once again, with another appeal to the high court with the president certain to ask the Supreme Court to intervene. In its opinion Wednesday, the New York-based appeals court said Vance has agreed that Trump can seek to appeal to before the district attorney enforces the subpoena. The Supreme Court previously rejected Trump’s claim that he had immunity as president from state grand jury investigations, although now that a conservative judge will replace RBG the outcome may well be different.

Ultimately, with Trump’s tax returns now yesterday’s news courtesy of a leak to the NYT which seems like an eternity of news cycles ago, few will care even if Trump ultimately does produce his tax returns.

The full ruling is below: see zerohedge)

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Powell Highlights

  • US budget is on an unsustainable path; but now is not the time to worry about debt
  • Lack of new fiscal stimulus imperils the recovery
  • Sees global deflationary pressures
  • Very optimistic that we can restore US labor market
  • Negative rates are NOT we are looking to use, results of NIRP are mixed
  • Monetary policy is NOT the first line of defense for financial stability (It should be!)

https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-business-jerome-powell-economy-52c9e406378c5acefc04af10621d40bb

Trump’s Doctor Says the President Reported No Symptoms [of Covid-19] on Tuesday 12:44 ET

Physician to The President’s statement: https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1313522747432148993/photo/1

@realDonaldTrump: Nancy Pelosi is asking for $2.4 Trillion Dollars to bailout poorly run, high crime, Democrat States, money that is in no way related to COVID-19. We made a very generous offer of $1.6 Trillion Dollars and, as usual, she is not negotiating in good faith. I am rejecting their request, and looking to the future of our Country. I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business. I have asked Mitch McConnell not to delay, but to instead focus full time on approving my outstanding nominee to the United States Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett. Our Economy is doing very well. The Stock Market is at record levels, JOBS and unemployment also coming back in record numbers. We are leading the World in Economic Recovery, and THE BEST IS YET TO COME.

DJT’s DK of Pelosi’s stimulus plan occurred minutes before the release of previously classified documents that show US intel worried that Hillary concocted the Trump-Russia collusion scam as a diversion from her email server problem – and CIA Dir. Brennan briefed Obama on HRC’s scheme.

DNI declassifies Brennan notes, CIA memo on Hillary Clinton ‘stirring up’ scandal between Trump, Russia – … Brennan’s handwritten notes were taken after briefing Obama on the matter

    “We’re getting additional insight into Russian activities from [REDACTED],” Brennan notes read. “CITE [summarizing] alleged approved by Hillary Clinton a proposal from one of her foreign policy advisers to vilify Donald Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by the Russian security service,” Brennan’s notes read. The notes state “on 28 of July.”  In the margin, Brennan writes “POTUS,” but that section of the notes is redacted. “Any evidence of collaboration between Trump campaign + Russia,” the notes read. The remainder of the notes are redacted, except in the margins, which reads:  “JC,” “Denis,” and “Susan.”… [More Spygate documents are being declassified!]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dni-brennan-notes-cia-memo-clinton

@realDonaldTrump tweeted at 8:41 PM on Tue, Oct 06, 2020: I have fully authorized the total Declassification of any & all documents pertaining to the single greatest political CRIME in American History, the Russia Hoax. Likewise, the Hillary Clinton Email Scandal. No redactions!

Top International Epidemiologists Launch Petition for Focused Protections and an End to Lockdowns — Signed by Over 1,700 Medical Professionals

   On Monday top international epidemiologists Dr. Martin Kulldorff from Harvard, Dr. Sunetra Gupta from Oxford and Dr. Jayanta Bhattacharya from Stanford joined Laura Ingraham on The Ingraham Angle to announce their latest initiative to reopen society and resume life in the West for those who are not vulnerable to the coronavirus.  Said Kulldorff told Laura, “Most of my colleagues in infectious disease are in favor of risk-based strategy or an age-based strategy where we protect the elderly or other high risk groups while the younger resume life more or less normally.” [What Sweden did]…

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/huge-top-international-epidemiologists-launch-petition-focused-protections-end-lockdowns-signed-1700-medical-professionals/

 

The Great Barrington Declaration

As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection…As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e.  the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity. The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection…   https://gbdeclaration.org/

CDC Survival Rates for Covid-19 per age group: 99.997% for 0-19; 99.98% for 20-49; 99.5% for 50-69; 94.6% for 70 and over

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is ridiculed after urging diners to wear their masks in between bites

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8811729/California-Gov-Newsom-ridiculed-online-urging-diners-wear-masks-bites.html

Rabobank: It’s Easy To Call for Continued Lockdowns When One Has a Safe Job Working Comfortably from Home –  It is very easy to call for continued lockdowns when one has a safe job paying full salary to work comfortably from home – which includes most Trump critics (and, full disclosure, this writer too). It’s far less attractive an option for a small business owner facing ruin, or for the self-employed, facing ruin, and even for the ‘always one rule for them and another for us’ blue collar voters who have had to keep working through Covid regardless, for example, delivering food to those working from home. Those are all Trump voters…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-its-easy-call-continued-lockdowns-when-one-has-safe-job-working-comfortably-home

We’ve Destroyed the Arts – Apparently, in a pandemic, culture is meaningless

An August survey indicated that 70 percent of America arts businesses had lost 75 percent or more of their revenue The performing arts are completely gone. As far as I can tell, there seems to be no plan to bring them back, other than “wait for a vaccine.”…  https://bookandfilmglobe.com/creators/weve-destroyed-the-arts/

A Texas grand jury indicted Netflix over “promotion of lewd visual material depicting child” in its ‘Cuties’ movie.

House Democrats say Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Apple enjoy ‘monopoly power,’ recommend big changes [Now we know whey Fangs were under pressure on Tuesday!]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/06/house-democrats-say-facebook-amazon-alphabet-apple-enjoy-monopoly-power.html

32 Sickened In White House COVID-19 Outbreak as 4th Press Shop Aide Tests Positive

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-mulls-nationwide-address-insists-americans-must-learn-live-covid

Trump top aide Stephen Miller has tested positive for coronavirus per reports last night.

OAN’s @jennfranconews: Democrat Presidential nominee Joe Biden says “we shouldn’t have debate” next week if President Trump is still infected with the coronavirus. (Per AP)

Who targeted the president? [@zerohedge: Asking the Question that Nobody Dares to Ask Publicly]

The virus appears to have targeted Republicans only and left Democrats unscathed.  Democrats are trying to characterize this as a Rose Garden or debate super-spreader — even though plenty of Democrats and Biden-supporters were at the debate and likely interacted with Republicans after the Amy Coney Barrett ceremony.  They argue that, as avid wearers of the mask, they are shielded from Republicans bearing COVID.  But if masks were ironclad, we’d all be immune.  People can still contract the disease in spite of masks, hand-washing, and social distancing — which are only preventive measures that minimize risk.  It is odd that in a town as small as Washington, D.C., only Republicans took the hit.

    The timing is a second factor.  Key Republicans fell ill after the Barrett announcement, the debate, and Comey’s flaccid testimony, and now we are full-blown into October — the final leg of the campaign…

    With a little contact tracing and sleuthing, I wouldn’t be surprised if we find out that this was an arrow in someone’s quiver and a doozy of an October surprise.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/10/who_targeted_the_president.html

The Babylon Bee (parody): Media Criticizes Trump for Downplaying Virus Threat by Not Dying

“Every hour that he lives is another hour that the severity of this virus is undermined!” said reporter Sara Grace Major for CNN. “Why won’t he just DIE and show the American people how deadly this virus truly is?”…  https://babylonbee.com/news/media-criticizes-trump-for-downplaying-virus-threat-by-not-dying

How Dare He Recover?!!   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/how-dare-he-recover

Star NYT columnist @maureendowd: When Trump walked through the doors, Walter Reed had a stellar reputation. As he walks out 72 hours later, its reputation is in tatters. There’s nothing Trump can’t ruin. [You can’t make this up! TDS is worsening!]

@seanmdav: Journos are enraged that a hospital cared for a patient and made him healthier. They think a hospital taking in a sick person and returning a healthy person will hurt the hospital’s reputation.

CNN Reporter Criticized for Taking off Mask Criticizes Trump for Taking off Mask

https://bongino.com/cnn-reporter-criticized-for-taking-off-mask-criticizes-trump-for-taking-off-mask

Chris Cuomo ripped over hypocrisy of mocking Trump’s White House return

Apparently forgetting the outrage over his own behavior in April — when he sparked a nasty spat after getting called out for being in public while infected…  https://trib.al/zxIjrxo

@Breaking911: BIDEN: If a police officer “goes on a 911 call, it’s better if he or she has with them a psychologist or psychiatrist.”  https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1313287779892301824

Covid and Trump have worsened the USA’s mental health crisis.

This video of Trump as Willy Wonka has gone viral: https://twitter.com/CountryTisOThee/status/1313506814156304384

Joe Biden’s MSNBC town hall panned as ‘infomercial’ for nominee  https://trib.al/9IZsIBG

NBC News’ ‘Undecided’ Voters Previously Featured as Biden Supporters on MSNBC

Questioners openly supported Dems prior to Florida town hall

https://freebeacon.com/media/undecided-voters-at-nbc-town-hall-previously-told-network-they-were-voting-biden/

Biden mistakenly says 210 million people have died from the coronavirus – At a town hall event Monday night, the former vice president urged people to wear masks saying they save lives.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/biden-mistakenly-says-210-million-people-have-died-coronavirus

Biden took NO questions after his speech via Teleprompter in Valley Forge, PA yesterday.

A ‘significant’ number of ballots were mailed to the wrong voters in Franklin County [Ohio]

The Franklin County, Ohio Board of Elections says there is a problem with a “significant” number of requested absentee ballots that were mailed to an “unknown number of voters.” 

https://www.10tv.com/article/news/politics/elections/franklin-county-absentee-ballots-error/530-b71c199c-c4d8-43d4-9415-265a67761aa5

Nearly 7,000 voters in N.J. town [Teaneck] received incorrect ballots

https://www.nj.com/bergen/2020/10/nearly-7000-voters-in-nj-town-received-incorrect-ballots.html

New Jersey man receives ballot addressed to his mother who died 11 years ago

NJ Gov. Phil Murphy decided to mail out a ballot to all voters automatically rather than require them to request one first.   https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/new-jersey-man-receives-ballot-addressed-his-mother-who-died-11-years-ago

L.A. County: Over 2,000 mail-in ballots sent without the option to vote for president

https://saraacarter.com/l-a-county-over-2000-mail-in-ballots-sent-without-the-option-to-vote-for-president/

DA files charges against Allentown elections judge who darkened dots on ballots in Pa. House race

Everett “Erika” Bickford was charged with two election code violations: insertion and alteration of entries in documents, and prying into ballots, both misdemeanors…

https://www.mcall.com/news/police/mc-nws-charges-filed-allentown-elections-judge-bickford-20201005-agyesiv4avfhlb2atjhow3hkk4-story.html

House and Senate Democrats clamored for virtual/remote sessions in March.  Pelosi even instituted proxy voting.  In order to stifle the SCOTUS confirmation process for Any Coney Barrett, Dems are vehemently against virtual Senate sessions.

@SteveGuest: FLASHBACK: Democrat Sen. Dick Durbin urged virtual Senate business in March: “yes, do our job” remotely   https://t.co/CE8Alj67Y9

State Dept. officials told they broke law by monitoring Americans during Ukraine scandal. Revelation undercuts impeachment testimony; conservative watchdog claims cover-up

   The emails show State Department officials under Trump openly worried a year before the 2020 election that the emerging storyline that Vice President Joe Biden may have engaged in a conflict of interest by presiding over Ukraine policy while his son worked for a corrupt Ukrainian gas company might prove to be “the mother load [sic] and main thread to play out, possibly thru Nov. 2020.”…

https://t.co/4u9dvVm1YV

The Monmouth University poll for Pennsylvania on October 4, 2016 had Hillary up by 10 points.  Trump won the state.  https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_pa_100416.pdf/

Monmouth University: Trump Hurt by Misconduct Claims as Clinton Lead Widens   Oct. 17, 2016

Hillary Clinton is currently ahead of Donald Trump by 12 points among voters likely to cast ballots in November…  https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_101716/

CBS: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 14 points nationally   October 10, 2016

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-by-14-points-nationally/

Clinton Holds 11-Point National Lead over Trump: NBC/WSJ Poll   October 16, 2016

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/clinton-holds-11-point-national-lead-over-trump-nbc-wsj-n666986

ABC: Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead, Boosted by Broad Disapproval of Trump   10/23/16

Clinton leads Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters… Clinton leads Trump by 20 percentage points among women, 55-35 percent…

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-vaults-double-digit-lead-boosted-broad-disapproval/story?id=42993821

Hillary Clinton Leads Donald Trump by 14 Points Nationally in New [AP] Poll   October 26, 2016

https://time.com/4546942/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-lead-poll/

USA/Today: Clinton builds lead in divided nation worried about Election Day violence  10/26/16

Hillary Clinton has built a formidable lead over Donald Trump approaching 10 percentage points, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/26/poll-clinton-builds-leads-nation-worried-election-day-violence-trump/92712708/

More record-lows for NBA Finals – Sunday’s Lakers-Heat NBA Finals Game 3 averaged a 3.1 rating and 5.94 million viewers, marking the lowest rated and least-watched NBA Finals game on record…

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2020/10/nba-finals-ratings-record-lows-heat-lakers-abc/

Adam Silver: NBA Social Justice Messaging Will Be Largely Left Off the Court Next Season

This is as close to a direct acknowledgement from the NBA Commissioner as you’ll ever see that embedding the social justice advocacy directly into the on-court product hurt the viewership…

https://www.outkick.com/adam-silver-nba-social-justice-messaging-will-be-largely-left-off-the-court-next-season/

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

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