GOLD:$1904.10 DOWN $10.70 The quote is London spot price
Silver:$23.90 DOWN 51 CENTS London spot price ( cash market)
your data…
Closing access prices: London spot
i)Gold : $1878.00 LONDON SPOT 4:30 pm
ii)SILVER: $23.05//LONDON SPOT 4:30 pm
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 212.87 OR .90% /The Nikkei closed UP 121.59 POINTS OR 0.52%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.49%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 40.50 dollars per barrel for WTI and 42.39 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7230 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19 : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
total withdrawals; NIL; oz
We had 0 kilobar transactions +
ADJUSTMENTS: 2 //
i) Out of jpm: customer to dealer: 14,467.950 oz
The front month of OCT registered a total of 12,404 contracts for a LOSS of 1902 contracts. We had 2975 notices filed on Monday so we gained a humongous 1073 contracts or 107,300 additional oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October. In gold we have not seen queue jumping start so early in the month. I wrote the following yesterday: “thus you can bet the farm that throughout October, the total number of gold oz standing will increase from this level.” So far it seems that I am right.
November gained 82 contracts to stand at 1154.
The big December contract GAINED 3238 contracts UP to 448,890 contracts..
THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH OI STANDING FOR OCTOBER (98.865 tonnes). GENERALLY OCTOBER IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY(GOLDMAN SACHS) JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE ON OCTOBER FOR PHYSICAL METAL. GOLDMAN SACHS ONE OF THE LEADERS OF THE NEW LONDON LME EXCHANGE NEEDS THE GOLD INVENTORY FOR LIQUIDITY AND INITIAL CONTRIBUTION WITH OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MONTH AND OTHER MONTHS IS THAT THIS GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER WILL LEAVE THE COMEX AND HEAD FOR LONDON.
We had 396 notices filed today for 39600 oz OR 1.2317 TONNES.
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (19,777) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (12,404 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (396 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,178,500 OZ OR 98.865 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of Oct
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2020 contract month:
No of notices filed so far (19,777, x 100 oz +12,404 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (396) x 100 oz which equals 3,178,500 oz standing OR 98.865 TONNES in this active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a OCT delivery month (a poor active delivery month).
We gained 1073 contracts or an additional 107,100 oz will stand on this side of the pond searching for metal.
NEW PLEDGED GOLD: BRINKS
592,648.822 oz NOW PLEDGED SEPT 15.2020/HSBC 18.433 TONNES ( A HUGE INCREASE FROM 10.6)
42,548.308.00 PLEDGED APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA: 1.3234 tonnes
deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7 (600 tonnes)
277,934.09 oz (some deleted august 3) JPM 8.644 TONNES
610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/ july 2/july 21 19.017 tonnes
51,084.609 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.588 tonnes jpm
total pledged gold: 1,574,454.119 oz 48.97 tonnes
total registered, pledged and eligible (customer) gold 36,994.410.984 oz 1,150.68 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
total 4 GC gold: 126.34 tonnes
total gold net of 4 GC: 1024.034 tonnes
end
I have compiled data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months
The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.
I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month. I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.
The first graph is a logarithmic graph and the second graph, linear.
You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.
THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL
END
And now for the wild silver comex results
And now for the wild silver comex results
INITIAL STANDINGS
OCT. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDIN
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory |
1978.112 oz
Delaware
|
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory |
nil oz
Manfra
|
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory |
598,818.000 oz
JPMorgan
|
| No of oz served today (contracts) |
396
CONTRACT(S)
(1,570,000 OZ)
|
| No of oz to be served (notices) |
212 contracts
1,040,000 oz)
|
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1682 contracts
8.410,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
“The Real Move In Gold Hasn’t Started Yet” – Von Greyerz Warns “System Entering Super-Exponential Phase”
Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Financial and precious metals expert Egon von Greyerz (EvG) stores gold for clients at the biggest gold vault in the world buried deep in the Swiss Alps. This year, EvG’s company, Matterhorn Asset Management, has seen “a major inflow, a massive inflow of big amounts of gold” being vaulted by his wealthy clients. Why the big spike in people wanting physical gold?
EvG says, “You have seen this year incredible money creation around the world by central banks along with the massive debt increases…”
“You are looking at… the money supply, which has been going up for 50 years, but now… it’s going up in a straight line. So, we are now entering into the exponential phase of this financial system. We are seeing unlimited money printing, helicopter money like Ben Bernanke (former Fed Head) called it. Then we are going to see accelerated debasement of the currency. The real moves in gold and silver haven’t started yet.”
This next move, according to EvG, is going to be a global phenomenon. EvG explains, “The bond market is going to collapse, and interest rates are going to go a lot higher…”
“Inflation is going to go a lot higher, and, eventually, the currency collapses, and it is a collapsing currency that leads to hyperinflation. When the currency falls, we will see hyperinflation. . . . The next group of people that are going to come into this are the institutional investors. We’ve already seen signs of that. . . . The risk I would say is the highest ever in history. You have never had a situation in history where basically every country in the world is in the same position.
In the past, you have had individual countries that have had problems, economic collapse and hyperinflation. You have never had a situation where the whole world has had an insoluble debt problem. That is now about to collapse. That’s never happened in history, and that’s why it’s going to be on a much bigger scale than before. I am not a prophet of doom and gloom. I am just someone who analyzes risk, and I say it is inevitable. This has to happen. It’s not a question of when, it’s just a question of how long will it take.”
What also has to happen are dramatically higher gold and silver prices? EvG says, “Silver at $25 per ounce is incredibly cheap. In my view, silver is going to go to at least $600 per ounce…”
“Gold should be at least $10,000 per ounce right now. . . . Gold should be $20,000 per ounce on an inflation adjusted basis. . . . When gold is $100,000 or $100 million (per ounce) or whatever it reaches, then everyone is going to be talking about gold. Gold is going to reach an ultimate peak, but that depends on the amount of money printed. . . . America has had a budget deficit for 90 years. What’s your forecast? It’s so easy. It’s going to get worse because now you are getting into the crisis situation. That’s why it’s going to accelerate. . . .
Nobody can believe these forecasts of gold and silver. People just like to extrapolate a few percent a year. That’s not where we are now. We are not at a point now where it’s going to happen gradually. We are at the exponential point, and the super exponential point of money printing, deficit and of currency collapse. That’s why this will be reflected in the precious metals prices.”
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management which can be found on GoldSwitzerland.com.
* * *
end
US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case
- The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
- A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
- In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.
CNBC.com
The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.
The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.
The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.
Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.
Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.
Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.
In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”
“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.
J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.
Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”
Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.
In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.
Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.
Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.
In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.
Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.
Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.
The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.
Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market
- Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
- Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.
Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.
Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.
Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.
That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.
Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.
Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.
On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.
“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.
The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.
In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.
end
March 4.2019
Parker City News
JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader
Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.
At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.
The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.
The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.
A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.
Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.
Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.
Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.
Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.
One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”
J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.
The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.
After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.
Kovel declined to comment.
Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.
-END-
Futures Flat After Trump Returns To White House, Ahead Of Powell Address
S&P futures drifted following yesterday’s surge to 3,400 following news that Trump was returning to the White House ahead of a 1040am ET speech by Fed Chair Powell in which expected to repeat that the Fed has done as much as it can and the recovery is now in the hands of lawmakers. Oil and treasurys climbed while the dollar was little changed as investors focused on President Trump’s health and awaited progress on an American virus relief package, where Politico reported that Nancy Pelosi said that stimulus negotiations with Steven Mnuchin were going “very slowly” during a Monday night conference call with Democratic leaders.
Tech stocks underperformed and FAAMGs stocks fell in light premarket trading after a late Monday report that a Democrat-led House panel is set to call for an overhaul of competition law to block them from both owning marketplaces and selling their products on them. As if keen to prove its monopoly power, just hours earlier Apple unveiled plans to launch its own audio products and stop selling rival headphones, sending Logitech shares lower. U.S.-listed shares of BioNTech jumped 9.7% after the European health regulator said it had started a real-time review of the COVID-19 vaccine being developed by the German biotech firm and Pfizer, whose shares rose 1.7%.
Europe Stoxx 600 Index fluctuated, and was last just barely in the green with tech and health-care stocks posting declines. Earlier in the session, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed for a second day. The Topix gained 0.5%, with Danto and Narumiya Intl rising the most. Shares in China remained closed for holiday.
The biggest news on Monday was Trump’s return to the White House from the Walter Reed Medical Center military hospital, when he released a video message stating to not let the virus dominate you and that he feels great, while he added that he could have left hospital 2 days ago and that vaccines are coming momentarily. However, the president faced immediate media backlash for removing his mask upon his return and urging Americans not to fear the disease. Some complained that Trump’s return from three days of hospital treatment for Covid-19 left unanswered questions about his condition and doubts about his willingness to abide by constraints needed to keep a virus outbreak at the White House from worsening. Meanwhile, there continue to be lingering concerns about the trajectory of the pandemic: in Germany, new coronavirus cases jumped the most since mid-April and Italy is set to tighten restrictions to curb the spread of the virus.
“The momentum of the recovery is clearly fading now and the positive surprises have ended,” according to strategists at Dutch asset manager Robeco. “With winter approaching in the northern hemisphere, we are already seeing more infections across much of Europe and local lockdowns that will hurt the economic recovery.”
On the fiscal stimulus front comments from officials that a deal was still possible had lifted Wall Street’s main indexes in the previous session, helping them recoup losses from last week that were sparked by news that President Donald Trump had contracted COVID-19. However, Politico poured cold water on optimism when it reported that Speaker Nancy Pelosi told House Democratic leaders on a conference call Monday night that stimulus negotiations with Treasury Sec. Steven Mnuchin were going “very slowly.”
At 1040am all eyes will be on an address by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a virtual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, where global central bankers are likely to present their plans about how much more they can do to prevent an economic depression. Powell is expected to reiterate that the bank has done as much as it can and the recovery is in the hands of lawmakers. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane will also deliver a keynote address at the NABE conference alongside Powell.
ECB President Christine Lagarde warned earlier that while virus containment measures pose a clear risk to the recovery, her biggest fear is a sudden end to fiscal support. The ECB head warned virus containment measures pose a clear risk to the recovery, and told the WSJ that the V-shaped rebound “might have a second arm,” but the risk of a “cliff effect” from any sudden end to government support is what worries her most.
In rates, treasuries recovered some of Monday’s losses; with the curve bull-flattening on above-average futures volumes during Asia session where demand emerged to buy the dip, and the European morning. Yields were lower by ~1bp across the curve, off session lows reached during European morning; 10-year TSYs were lower by 1.2bp at ~0.77%, outperforming bunds and gilts, after falling as much as 2.7bp; the 8.1bp increase Monday was biggest since Sept. 4. The weekly auction cycle begins with a 3-year note sale with a record $52b 3-year note sale at 1pm ($2b larger than last month’s) and $35b 10-year and $23b 30- year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday
In FX, the pound weakened after a report that the European Union has no plans to offer concessions to Boris Johnson before next week’s Brexit deadline. Bloomberg reports that the bloc is ready to let U.K. talks drag on into November or December, and even take a chance on Johnson pulling the plug on the deliberations rather than compromise on its red lines, according to a senior EU diplomat.
In commodities, oil futures remained elevated amid developments near the Gulf of Mexico, with Hurricane Delta strengthening to a Category 2 hurricane ahead of expected landfall on Friday, whilst BP and Chevron have already started evacuating personnel in anticipation. Additional oil companies are expected to announce evacuations over the coming days as the hurricane nears, albeit it is not yet known in which form it will make landfall. Traders also kept an eye on the escalating tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the event pipelines/refineries/ports of the OPEC+ producer are targeted. Both WTI and Brent see gains of some USD 0.5/bbl apiece, with the former briefly topping USD 39.75/bbl and the latter eyeing USD 42/bbl to the upside. Elsewhere, spot gold sees a choppy session within a tight USD 8/oz range as it largely moves on USD-dynamics, with a similar story for spot silver.
Looking at the day ahead now, the highlight will be remarks from Fed Chair Powell. Other central bank speakers include the Fed’s Harker, Bostic and Kaplan, and the ECB’s Lane and Hernandez de Cos. The US will release the trade balance and JOLTS job openings for August.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,385.50
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 364.58
- MXAP up 0.7% to 172.91
- MXAPJ up 0.7% to 567.84
- Nikkei up 0.5% to 23,433.73
- Topix up 0.5% to 1,645.75
- Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 23,980.65
- Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,218.05
- Sensex up 1% to 39,378.22
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 5,962.07
- Kospi up 0.3% to 2,365.90
- Brent futures up 1.4% to $41.85/bbl
- Gold spot little changed at $1,912.00
- U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.44
- German 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to -0.514%
- Euro down 0.09% to $1.1772
- Italian 10Y yield rose 2.3 bps to 0.604%
- Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 0.263%
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- President Donald Trump’s return from three days of hospital treatment for Covid-19 left unanswered questions about his condition and doubts about his willingness to abide by constraints needed to keep a virus outbreak at the White House from worsening
- Oystein Olsen, the governor of Norges Bank, said he’d be willing to contemplate negative interest rates if financial markets are hit by a renewed wave of turmoil
- Riksbank and the ECB will explore the feasibility of augmenting the TIPS platform to accommodate instant settlement of payments across European currencies, such as the Swedish krona and the euro, according to a statement
A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk
Asian equity markets traded positively following the firm handover from global peers amid optimism regarding President Trump’s treatment and stimulus hopes, although the momentum has moderated in the region and Australia initially lagged on tentativeness heading into the RBA and budget announcement. The key risk events clouded trade in the ASX 200 (+0.4%) from the open although this was eventually shrugged off by outperformance in commodity-related stocks after the prior day’s rebound in oil prices and due to M&A news following a merger agreement between Northern Star Resources and Saracen Mineral Holdings. Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) was kept afloat by the recent currency weakness but with price action rangebound amid a lack of fresh catalysts and some resistance ahead of the 23,500 level, while the Hang Seng (+0.9%) was underpinned and rose to within 100 points of the 24,000 milestone but lacked the extra push needed amid the continued absence of mainland Chinese participants and with Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam stating that social distancing rules will be kept for a while. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid the modest gains in stocks and following a breakdown of support at the psychological 152.00 level, with mixed results at the 30yr JGB auction also contributing to the uninspired picture.
Top Asian News
- RBA Keeps Key Rate, Yield Unchanged, as Seen by Most Economists
- Nomura, Daiwa CEOs See Equity Sales Picking Up After Virus Lull
- Temasek Establishes New Asset Management Group Called Seviora
- Tencent Stock Options Cost a Fortune and Traders Love Them
European equities began the session relatively directionless before ebbing into negative territory and thereafter trimming some losses (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) as attention continues to remain on the health of President Trump and hopes of a US fiscal package. With regards to the President, Trump left the Walter Reed Medical Center and returned to the White House last night with the US leader remaining adamant that he “feels great”. In terms of the ramifications for the upcoming election, polling over the weekend showed a widening of the lead for former VP Biden, however, the survey period centred more on the immediate aftermath of last week’s debate rather than the public’s response to the President’s virus diagnosis. Therefore, polling over the coming days which is able to encapsulate both events could provide markets with greater impetus in assessing the outcome of the November vote. On the fiscal front, US negotiators remain at loggerheads despite upbeat commentary from various officials with White House Chief of Staff Meadows noting there is potential for a stimulus package; doubts over Senate approval remain. In terms of the performance in Europe, indices are now mixed with the IBEX (+0.8%) remaining an outlier to the upside, as was the case for a bulk of yesterday’s session. Sectoral performance is also relatively mixed with banks firmer thus far, potentially following on from yesterday’s more favourable yield environment, interestingly, Barclays in a recent note recommended that investors start selectively adding exposure to the European banking sector. Telecom names have been supported by gains in Telia (+5.1%) after divesting a unit and announcing an additional divided. Elsewhere to the upside, travel & leisure names such as Ryanair (+4.8%), easyJet (+4.2%) and IAG (+2.8%) are trading firmer alongside reports noting that the UK is expected to implement a COVID-19 testing system for arrivals this month, a move designed to halve the current 14-day quarantine for those arriving from high-risk countries. To the downside, lagging sectors include tech, healthcare and chemicals. In terms of individual stories, equity news-flow has been on the lighter side this morning with the main headline being that Engie has agreed to the sale of the majority of its stake in Suez to Veolia. Suez took note of the Veolia purchase in a hostile manner and says it will use all the means at its disposal to protect the interest of its employees, clients and stakeholders, and will avoid a creeping takeover.
Top European News
- Green Hydrogen Gets $10.5 Billion Roadmap From Spain
- Putin’s Oil Ally Takes Fight for Frozen Funds to Top Swiss Court
- Sunak Refutes Suggestion His ‘Eat Out’ Plan Spread the Virus
- Spies Can Snoop on Phone Data in a Crisis, EU Top Court Says
In FX, the Dollar index posts modest gains in tandem with mild losses across the equity-space, but remains within a tight range around 93.500 after seeing little follow-through from US President Trump’s discharge to the White House, whilst US stimulus remains far from a done deal with talks to continue today. DXY has widened its overnight range in recent trade with the upper band now at 93.527, having had printed a base at 93.333 at the cash open, with upside levels including the 21 DMA (93.602) ahead of yesterday’s high of 93.832. Looking ahead, the data-slate remains light but speakers abundant, with Fed Chair Powell, voters Harker and Kaplan alongside 2021 voter Bostic on the docket.
- AUD, NZD, CAD – The non-US Dollars are softer to varying degrees with clear underperformance seen in the AUD post-RBA and Aussie Budget. AUD/USD eclipsed 0.7200 to match the 50 DMA (0.7208) after the Central Bank opted to stand pat on rates (vs. outside calls for a 15bps cut), albeit this upside thereafter petered out as participants digested the release which noted “Both fiscal and monetary support will be required for some time given the outlook for the economy and the prospect of high unemployment… The Board continues to consider how additional monetary easing could support jobs as the economy opens up further.” Meanwhile, little action was seen upon the unveiling of the Aussie Budget which largely fell in-line with expectations flagged by major banks. AUD/USD now re-eyes 0.7150 to the downside after briefly dipping below the level in early European hours. The Kiwi and Loonie meanwhile move in tandem to the Buck, with NZD/USD retaining its 0.6600+ status but within a 30-pip intraday band. USD/CAD meanwhile stays below 1.3300 after finding a base at its 50 DMA (1.3238) whilst attempting to top its 21 DMA (1.3266), with the Loonie also influence from choppy crude prices.
- EUR, GBP – Mixed trade after both currencies initially moved at the whim of the Buck. GBP/USD remains choppy with recent price action seeing the pair rebound off session lows after (1.2960) earlier eclipsing the 1.3000 to match the 16th Sept high (1.3006) on reported stops triggered around the round figure, with the most recent upside coinciding with BBC reports that EU’s s Brexit Negotiation Barnier is to arrive in London for further talks at the end of the week amid the recent pledge from both sides to intensify talks. Elsewhere, the release from the Eurogroup yesterday was in-line with expectations in which finance ministers acknowledged the recent EUR price action but stopped short of intervening, whilst ECB’s President Lagarde reiterated that the Central Bank is prepared to use tools and is ready to address the situation as it develops. ECB’s Makhlouf meanwhile suggested average inflation targeting is something the ECB should examine, albeit with no-follow through to the Single Currency. EUR/USD meanders around 1.1775 following an earlier test of 1.1800, with the current base at 1.1766.
- JPY – The Yen outperforms in the G10 FX space on traditional safe-haven inflows which sees USD/JPY trickle lower from its session high of 105.78 to a current low of 105.53 with notable opex today on either side of current levels including USD 1.2bln at 106.00 and USD 1.1bln at 105.00.
- RBA maintained the Cash Rate Target and 3yr yield target at 0.25%, as expected and reiterated its guidance that it will not increase the cash rate until progress is being made towards full employment and inflation is at the 2%-3% target band. RBA noted that the board continues to consider how additional monetary easing could support jobs as the economy opens up further but noted the contraction in Q2 output was smaller than in other countries and that labour market conditions have improved with the unemployment rate likely to peak at a lower level than previously anticipated. (Newswires) Subsequently, RBA watcher McCrann suggests it is now very likely that it will deliver a ‘rate cut plus’ on Cup Day (November 3rd).
In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures remain elevated amid developments near the Gulf of Mexico, with Hurricane Delta strengthening to a Category 2 hurricane ahead of expected landfall on Friday, whilst BP and Chevron have already started evacuating personnel in anticipation. Additional oil companies are expected to announce evacuations over the coming days as the hurricane nears, albeit it is not yet known in which form it will make landfall. Elsewhere participants are also keeping an eye on the escalating tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the event pipelines/refineries/ports of the OPEC+ producer are targeted. Both WTI and Brent see gains of some USD 0.5/bbl apiece, with the former briefly topping USD 39.75/bbl and the latter eyeing USD 42/bbl to the upside. Elsewhere, spot gold sees a choppy session within a tight USD 8/oz range as it largely moves on USD-dynamics, with a similar story for spot silver. Finally, LME copper ekes mild gain with some citing optimism regarding US President Trump returning to the White House, albeit more so a follow through from the APAC optimism.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $66.2b deficit, prior $63.6b deficit
- 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,500, prior 6,618
Central Bank Speakers
- 10:40am: Fed Chair Powell Addresses NABE Conference in Chicago
- 11:45am: Fed’s Harker Discusses Machine Learning
- 2pm: Fed’s Bostic to Speak to Leadership Florida
- 6pm: Fed’s Kaplan Takes Part in Talk with Bank of Mexico’s Diaz
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As we’ve been discussing over the last few days, it’s quite clear that the market is now focusing on two things. Election certainty and the chances of further US fiscal stimulus. Two weeks ago we were in limbo with the former low and the chances of the latter stagnating. However Biden’s lead started to edge higher again early to mid last week and that helped both of these factors. It increased the likelihood of certainty on November 3rd and also increased the chance of a Democratic clean sweep which would make Q1 fiscal stimulus a strong likelihood. Clearly two spanners to this trade are the impact of Mr Trump’s covid diagnosis and the question as to whether the economy can wait until Q1 for fresh stimulus. On the former the early polls are suggesting that Biden’s momentum has not been impacted by Trump’s illness and on the latter, while it could mean a tough Q4 for consumers and the economy, the market is looking beyond that.
So President Trump leaving hospital last night was a bit of a side show and markets rallied strongly on the above themes rather than the anticipation of this. The latest polling shows Biden leading by just over +8pts in both fivethirtyeight.com and RealClearPolitics polling averages. The former Vice President also continues to lead by over +5pts in major swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Indeed, FiveThirtyEight’s model now gives President Trump just an 18% chance of victory, which is the lowest of the campaign to date, while the odds of the Republicans retaining control of the Senate in their model has fallen to 35%, which is also the lowest since their Senate model started back in August. The highest the model’s chances have given Republicans for maintaining control is 43% on 11 September. However it is important to note that the most likely scenario in the model is still a slim 51-49 Democratic majority.
At the end of the session the S&P 500 moved up +1.80% to reverse Friday’s loss following President Trump’s positive test result. It was a broad-based rally with over 90% of the index rising on the day and all 24 industries moving higher. The index was led by tech sectors like Semiconductors (+3.30%) and Tech Hardware (+2.78%) as the NASDAQ moved +2.32% higher. Though on a day when risk assets generally rose, cyclicals like Energy (+2.90%) and Autos (+2.50%) were just as strong. The VIX volatility index rose +0.3pts to 28.0 for the first time in over a week even as equities rose. With the VIX representing market expectations for 30-day forward-looking volatility, the US elections are now being priced into the spot level.
Equities were further supported by positive news on the prospect of more immediate fiscal stimulus as Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin reportedly spoke for an hour yesterday on the “justifications for various numbers” in the potential stimulus deals and have agreed to continue talks today. This lends credence to the idea that the two sides continue to work to bridge the gap between the offers from the White House and the Democrats. While Senate Majority Leader McConnell agreed that talks have “speeded up in the last few days” it is uncertain there are enough Republicans on board to see additional stimulus in excess of $1 trillion pass the Senate. Not to mention, the Senate Republican caucus will be short a few potential votes for the next 2 weeks, as three Senators are quarantining after testing positive for Covid-19. So resolution pre-election still feels like a stretch but as we said at the top it’s not worrying markets while Biden is pulling away in the polls.
European equities weren’t as strong as the US, although it’s worth noting they didn’t suffer the same level of declines on Friday. The STOXX 600 (+0.81%), the DAX (+1.10%) and the CAC 40 (+0.97%) all had decent sessions though. The rally in Europe was nearly as broad as in the US with 18 of 20 STOXX 600 sectors gaining on the day, led by Telecoms (+2.22%) and Travel and Leisure (+2.01%) stocks.
Overnight news that a US House panel may propose sweeping reforms of the technology sector is slightly weighing on Nasdaq futures which are down -0.16%. Bloomberg is reporting that under the reforms, technology giants like Amazon and Apple will not be allowed to both own marketplaces and sell their own products on them. The panel is also likely to recommend legislation that would require the tech companies to allow users to easily move their data from one website to another. The panel’s report is still in the draft stage and its content could change. But perhaps a marker for the future.
Overall though, Asian markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+0.44%), Hang Seng (+0.75%), Kospi (+0.50%) and Asx (+0.25%) all up. Futures on the S&P 500 are also up +0.09%. In FX, the US dollar is down -0.13% this morning. Meanwhile, at its monetary policy meeting the RBA decided to leave rates unchanged at 0.25%.
In terms of the coronavirus, there was some confusion around new NYC restrictions. Governor Cuomo superseded Mayor de Blasio’s plan to shut schools, bars, restaurants, and other non-essential businesses in 9 ZIP codes. In the end, school in those regions will indeed be closed, while businesses will be allowed to operate for the time being. The governor said schools and religious gatherings were a larger concern currently than businesses and will be meeting with religious leaders in the affected areas to try and come to an agreement without closing those institutions. The US overall is starting to see the beginnings of an Autumnal wave, with 34 of 50 states seeing 7-day averages of new cases higher than one month back. The numbers in summer hot spots in the “Sun Belt” like California, Arizona and Florida have waned, but the Midwest and the parts of the Northeast are seeing rising caseloads as the weather cools. On the other side of world, after having successfully brought the pandemic under control, China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism said that in the first four days of the Golden Week holiday, domestic travellers were back to 80% of last year’s level.
Over in Europe as increasing restrictions come into force there were also a number of negative coronavirus developments. Most notably, the European Commission President Von der Leyen had to self-isolate after she was at a meeting on Tuesday with someone who tested positive. Thus far she’s tested negative but will remain in isolation until this evening in line with the regulations. Here in the UK, the number of cases remained above 10k yesterday, as a further 12,594 were reported. That follows the IT error that meant almost 16k cases were left out of the figures over the previous week, which means that the current extent of the virus’ spread is worse than had previously been thought.
Meanwhile in Ireland, media reports including the Irish Times said that the government was against following the recommendation from public health officials to move the country to Level 5 status, which would prevent household visits and see pubs and restaurants move to takeaway only. It’ll be interesting to see if other countries’ governments also resist the advice of their health officials, as they seek to balance the trade-offs between public health, safeguarding the nascent economic recovery, and the other side effects of moves to stricter lockdowns. Elsewhere, Mexico recorded significantly higher cases (28,115) and fatalities (2,789) over the past 24 hours with the government attributing the jump to a change in methodology. The jump far outstrips the prior daily high of 9556 cases and 1092 deaths. Please note that the fatalities table continues to remain part of the PDF report and can be viewed by clicking on “view report”. On the vaccine front, the New York Times has reported overnight that top Trump administration officials are blocking new federal guidelines that would make it more difficult to authorize a Covid-19 vaccine before the election. So this could still be a politicised event as we approach polling day.
Back to yesterday, and the rally in risk assets was evident across multiple asset classes as Brent crude (+5.14%) and WTI (+5.86%) saw their strongest one-day performance in months. Safe havens suffered for the most part, with the dollar index falling -0.35% to a 2-week low, as US Treasury yields rose +8.1bps to 0.782% (down -1bps this morning), their highest closing level in nearly 4 months. It was a similar story over in Europe, where yields on bunds (+2.6bps), gilts (+4.2bps) and BTPs (+2.3bps) all moved higher as well. That said, the relative outperformance of Italian debt continued, with the spread of the country’s 10-year yields over bunds falling by -0.3bps to a 7-month low of 1.32%.
Finally on the data front, the main story yesterday came from the release of the services and composite PMIs from around the world. In the Euro Area with the exception of Spain, there were signs that activity had at the very least stabilised, with the Euro Area composite PMI at 50.4 (vs. flash 50.1), and the German reading also being revised up to 54.7 (vs. flash 53.7). In Spain however, the composite PMI came in at 44.3 (vs. expected 47.7). Over in the US, the ISM services index came in at 57.8 (vs. 56.2 expected), and the employment index also rose to 51.8 (from 47.9 previously).
To the day ahead now, and the highlight will likely come with remarks from Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde. Other central bank speakers include the Fed’s Harker, Bostic and Kaplan, and the ECB’s Lane and Hernandez de Cos. Today’s data releases include Germany’s factory orders for August, as well as the September construction PMI from Germany and the UK. The US will also be releasing the trade balance and JOLTS job openings for August.
3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 212.87 OR .90% /The Nikkei closed UP 121.59 POINTS OR 0.52%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.49%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 40.50 dollars per barrel for WTI and 42.39 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7230 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19 : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA
South Korea
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 C CHINA
CHINA/USA
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
IRAN/USA/ISRAEL
Iran took possession over 3 disputed islands in the Gulf. Now Iran threatens UAE and Israel that they will sink any ship that tries to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.
(zerohedge)
6.Global Issues
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Rabobank: It’s Easy To Call For Continued Lockdowns When One Has A Safe Job Working Comfortably From Home
Back to the Roach Motel.
President Trump indeed returned to the White House yesterday, where people seem to be going down with Covid like flies. Luckily he is probably already immune, as he noted. Trump arrived by helicopter in a Leni Riefenstahl video clip and urged Americans –for the second time, the first by Tweet– not to be afraid of Covid, and not to let it dominate their lives. He had, he said, fought the virus as a leader. He had to do what he done, knowing the risks, involved.
Critics will point out that the man who just fought the virus is not yet out of the woods medically, and was caught puffing after climbing the stairs: true, but have they ever seen what Trump looks like after climbing any set of stairs at any time? The same critics point out Trump just benefitted from experimental, world class healthcare at public expense even as he has nominated a justice to the Supreme Court who may vote to repeal existing conditions protections offered by Obamacare.
However, one has to also consider that 2020 is likely a base election, and Leni Riefenstahl and Trump know how to fire up a base. It is very easy to call for continued lockdowns when one has a safe job paying full salary to work comfortably from home – which includes most Trump critics (and, full disclosure, this writer too). It’s far less attractive an option for a small business owner facing ruin, or for the self-employed, facing ruin, and even for the ‘always one rule for them and another for us’ blue collar voters who have had to keep working through Covid regardless, for example, delivering food to those working from home. Those are all Trump voters.
In short, objective analysis in partisan times would suggest there is going to be a flood of justified criticism of Trump’s actions (again), but likely also a lot of base support. Unless Trump has a health lapse, as his critics warn – but that is where we have been since Friday anyway.
Stocks certainly perked up on the Trump news, and 10-year Treasury yields rose too in a Lazarus effect….although earlier in the day we were told this was because Biden was far ahead in the polls. Or perhaps this was due to hopes for more US stimulus, which Trump has tweeted he very much wants done, and which appears to be edging closer?
On which, we must enter another Roach Motel. Yesterday, the Financial Times published an article from Stephen Roach –formerly of Morgan Stanley, and now a senior lecturer at Yale– in which he calls for the imminent collapse of the US dollar (which will decline by a third by the end of 2021, apparently) and its loss of global reserve currency status. Such pieces from Roach, always with the same theme, seem to appear once or twice a year now, and always get coverage in the financial press, regardless of the fact that they are nonsense. Two colleagues contacted me last night about the piece, which shows how much consternation it caused: one to double check that Roach’s arguments were indeed as silly as they looked and he wasn’t going mad.
Anyway, Roach is roaching that the USD will collapse because the US is running a vast fiscal deficit, and that will cause a vast current account deficit, and then foreigners won’t want to fund it, and then the USD will plunge, and then something else will emerge to replace it globally. This is what they teach at Yale today, apparently.
Naturally, this overlooks that the vast fiscal deficit –which looming stimulus would indeed make vaster– represents a transfer from the public sector to the private sector, so the huge deficit on one hand is matched by a huge surplus on the other. Think of those cheques for USD1,200 going to households, and all the households who just bank it while working from home. In other words, if the US runs a 20% fiscal deficit, for example, it won’t run a 20% current account deficit too: private savings will spike at the same time, and it will only run perhaps a 4% deficit overall.
So, yes, the USD can go down. But it’s already gone down a long way vs. EUR and JPY of late. Does anyone think the ECB and BOJ —who have the same fiscal deficit problems as the US!!!— are going to sit there and do nothing if EUR should try to go up to 1.40 and JPY to 80, bringing both crushing deflation? Likewise, Roach ignores that the USD is up a lot against many EM FX despite what has happened so far fiscally and politically. Is he really saying everyone will now want to hold EM and not US assets? This is also what they apparently teach at Yale.
That is a parallel to the equally tragicomic ‘But nobody will buy US Treasuries!’ argument, which plays out ad nauseum even as yields trend ever lower: on which, this latest UST yield spike is another false dawn unless Trump or Biden push for serious *structural* change in the economy – and that will take a lot more than a Build Back Better sign falling off of a lectern, Theresa May style, or a Leni Riefenstahl video of a helicopter and a balcony.
Roach also can’t make an argument for how any other currency or asset can realistically replace the USD, which is literally armed to the teeth to stop that happening, and where liabilities in the Eurodollar market exceed available USD by 9 to 1. It will just happen, he says. Such ideas are of course much appreciated in China: here is Roach being praised for his bold commentary in the official China Daily, for example.
Indeed, recall that on 8 October the arms embargo on Iran ends. Russia has suggested it will then sell Tehran its S-400 defence system. The US has said anyone doing so will feel the full effect of the USD ‘weapon’. Likewise, 12 October is the 90-day mark following the passage of the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, by which date China hawk Mike Pompeo must compile a list of each foreign person who is “materially contributing to, has materially contributed to, or attempts to materially contribute to the failure of the Government of China to meet its obligations under the Joint Declaration or the Basic Law”. That then starts a short countdown to financial institutions being listed; which starts the countdown to the imposition of US sanctions. The USD weapon again.
Against this backdrop, people will be avoiding USD and looking at EUR or CNY or others? Only in the way people are always deliberately looking for Roach Motels, rather than ending up in one. For one example, the Aussie trade balance today was just AUD2,643m vs. an expectation of AUD5,050m: exports were down 4% m/m and imports up 2%. The RBA left rates on hold while making clear getting unemployment down is an “important national priority”, and that it is ready to ease again: it is waiting to see the budget, out later today (and a fiscal deficit expected to be around 12% of GDP) before acting, however. Yet expect rates at 0.1% and more QE as soon as November: which according to Mr Roach means AUD is going up to 0.90 by end-2021.
NYC Schools Close As COVID-19 Makes “Dangerous Comeback” Across US: Live Updates
Summary:
-
NYC closes schools in ‘hot spots’
-
Horace Mann school also closes amid outbreak
-
US in the grip of “dangerous” COVID-19 comeback
-
Cases continue to rise across US as Midwest drives new wave
-
GSK + VIR say new antibody treatment enters Phase 3
-
Ireland’s cabinet suggests raising alert level
-
China in talks to have WHO ‘assess’ vaccines
-
India reports fewest new cases since Aug. 25
* * *
Schools in ‘hot spots’ across NYC are closing Tuesday – a day earlier than NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio had hoped – as Gov Cuomo, de Blasio’s political arch-rival, makes changes to the mayor’s proposal, which was subject to state approval. De Blasio had wanted to shutter all “non-essential” business, in the first rollback of the city’s summertime reopening efforts, but Gov. Cuomo wisely staid his hand.
Of course, NY isn’t alone, as outbreaks are worsening across the Midwest and other parts of the country, while states like NY and NJ see incipient new outbreaks of their own.
In addition to the public schools in NYC’s hot spots, Horace Mann, a private school in the Bronx, has suspended in-person classes for its middle and upper grades for two weeks after the school was alerted to a mini outbreak among its teaching staff.
But, as Bloomberg points out, South Dakota and North Dakota are seeing some of the worst outbreaks relative to their populations.
While big states like California, Florida and Texas are seeing cases continue to decline, outside of the Sun Belt, the US outbreak is growing.
Scientists in the US have long warned of a looming “Twindemic” as the coronavirus mixes with the common cold and the seasonal flu. And in the Midwest, where falling temperatures are starting to send people indoors, many states are seeing the virus arrive in towns and small communities where it has been almost totally absent. In Nebraska, the seven-day average of cases hit a record Saturday, joining Midwestern and Western states including Wisconsin, Montana and the Dakotas in confronting a virus that had eluded them until recently.
“We’re in very bad shape, never having achieved any sense of containment, never gotten below 20,000 new confirmed cases per day,” said Eric Topol, director of Scripps Research Translational Institute. “Things can only get worse on this course.”
Meanwhile, as Trump’s return to the White House captivated the country on Monday, the NYT reported – as we mentioned last night – that the administration is once again pressuring the FDA to make changes to its proposed new vaccine guidelines to strip out a section that would essentially rule out the approval of a vaccine before election day.
Despite rising case numbers, Texas Gov Greg Abbott is reportedly preparing to announce another round of rollbacks for the state’s COVID-19-related restrictions.
Finally, on the pharmaceutical side, GlaxoSmithKline and VIR have announced that their antibody therapy, which is similar to convalescent plasma and other techniques seeking a ‘cure’ for COVID-19.
Here’s more COVID-19 news from last night and this morning:
Global cases reach 35,485,738. The worldwide death toll has hit 1,044,085 (Source: JHU)
US COVID cases +39,562 (prev. +35,504) and deaths +460 (prev. +690). New York COVID cases +933 (prev. +1,222) and deaths +8 (prev. +14). (Source: Newswires).
Biontech and Pfizer have initiated a rolling submission to the European Medicines Agency for COVID-19 vaccine candidate as the EU scrambles to approve the leading vaccine projects, which also includes AstraZeneca and Oxford (which has also struck a deal for rolling submission of trial data) (Source: AFP).
France COVID cases +5,084 (prev. +12,565) and deaths +69 (prev. +32). (Source: AFP).
Ireland’s Cabinet recommended to raise the country’s alert level to 3, from, at midnight Tuesday (Source: RTE).
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani reportedly may have contracted COVID-19 (Source: FARS).
China is in talks to have its locally produced COVID-19 vaccines assessed by the World Health Organization, as a step toward making them available for international use, a WHO official says. Hundreds of thousands of essential workers and other groups considered at high risk in China have been given locally developed vaccines even though clinical trials had not been completed, raising safety concerns (Source: Nikkei).
India’s latest daily new case count was just 61,267, fewer than the 74,442 a day earlier and the lowest single-day tally since Aug. 25. India has seen a total of 6.69 million. Deaths rose by 884 to 103,569 (Source: Nikkei).
end
7. OIL ISSUES
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
VENEZUELA
Funny! Venezuela orders 71 tonnes of paper to print its new banknote
of 100,000 bolivars (worth 23 cents)
Venezuela Orders 71 Tons of Paper To Print New Banknotes Worth 23 Cents Each
One of the core tenets of MMT, or Magic Money Theory, is that a nation which prints its own fiat money can never go broke or be insolvent (unless a political decision to do so is taken). Well, that may be true, but in Venezuela things appears to have taken an unexpected detour into one of the more grotesque circles of economic hell as the hyperinflating country proceeded to print its way out of its endless economic crisis.
So much so that according to Bloomberg, Venezuela is now importing 71 tons of paper from Italian money printer Fedrigioni (majority owned by US Private Equity giant Bain Capital) which it will use to print new bills with the highest, 100,000 new bolivar, denomination yet. In dollar terms: each new banknote is worth about 23 cents, courtesy of the raging hyperinflation that has been sweeping the nation for the past 6 years.
One recurring problem for Venezuela, which as we reported back in 2016 used 36 Boeing 747 cargo planes to deliver a batch of then freshly printed (and shortly thereafter, worthless) currency, is that by the time its currency is printed, it is worth almost nothing.
Sure enough, as Bloomberg notes, the need for ever larger bills and constant devaluations in Venezuela is a direct result of an ever weakening currency and hyperinflation that now runs at over 2,400%, meaning that paying for a cart full of groceries now literally requires a bag of cash. The 100,000 bolivar bill would match the biggest bill ever printed in Venezuela, one made two years ago during the days of the bolivar fuerte (the latest version of the currency is called the sovereign bolivar). The central bank is considering introducing even larger denominations down the line, which will lose their value just as fast.
What is truly absurd is that Venezuela has reached the point where it can’t even afford to pay its money printers: it ceased using De La Rue after racking up massive debts, at which point it turned to a state-owned money printer in Russia to purchase 300 million of new bills. Considering that Venezuela is now using an Italian money printer, leads us to conclude that even Putin turned down the Maduro regime.
It gets worse: due to the total economic collapse in Venezuela, the national mint has to overcome a series of additional hurdles to introduce the new bill. These include reduced staffing due to the pandemic as well as a shortage of ink and technical challenges brought on by missing parts and frequent power outages have delayed attempts to get the printing equipment running.
According to Bloomberg, the shipment of bills will also be the last from the Bain-owned Fedrigoni, as it fulfills a contract signed in 2018, a year before Venezuela’s central bank was sanctioned by the U.S. in efforts to cut off Nicolas Maduro’s regime from the global financial system.
After this shipment it is unclear if Venezuela can even afford to buy new currency as it slowly transitions barter. Many won’t notice: in 2020 the country’s economy will be in its seventh straight year of recession, forecast to shrink another 20% due to the coronavirus lockdown and the collapse of oil revenue. Previous attempts to bring stability to the currency by cutting off zeros and printing new bills have failed. Sadly for the Maduro regime, the can-kicking game is almost over as the socialist regime will soon run out of ink to run its own printing press.
And with the local currency increasingly used only for toilet paper, local have been turning to crypotcurrencies and U.S. dollars, with Ecoanalitica estimating that some 60% of all purchases are now done using greenbacks.
Venezuela’s oil industry may never recover
(Smith/OilPrice.com)
Venezuela’s Oil industry May Never Recover
Authored by Matthew Smith via OilPrice.com,
Despite President Maduro’s claims of a looming recovery for Venezuela’s economically crucial oil industry in early 2020 production keeps declining. Even measures aimed at revitalizing the industry and circumventing U.S. sanctions are failing to trigger any sustainable recovery. According to the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2020 oil output remained flat compared to a month earlier at 340,000 barrels daily.
This comes on the back of Maduro’s ongoing tussles with opposition leader, and U.S. backed interim president Juan Guaidó, for control of the opposition led National Assembly. Those are intensifying as the elections for the parliamentary body approach, which are scheduled to be held on 6 December 2020. The reasons for this conflict are quite simple; Maduros’ desire to control Venezuela’s last independent legislative institution, the National Assembly, which is the only government body that can legally approve oil-licensing deals. Venezuela’s worsening economic collapse makes it vital for the Maduro regime to revitalize the Latin American country’s oil industry, with petroleum being the only real source of income for the beleaguered government.
The oil industry is responsible for more than a quarter of Venezuela’s GDP and 99% of all exports by value, making it a crucial economic driver. For this reason, the collapse of Venezuela’s oil industry has sounded the death knell for its economy plunging it into a deep crisis. This is highlighted by the IMF predicting Venezuela’s 2020 GDP will shrink 15%, even after contracting by a massive 25% during 2019.
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report September 2020. IMF World Economic Outlook April 2020. * 2020 production is the daily average from January to August 2020 and the IMF GDP figure is an annual forecast.
The Latin American country’s ever deeper economic crisis is directly correlated to the collapse of its oil industry and declining petroleum production. Venezuela only pumped a daily average of 340,000 barrels during August, less than half of the 712,000 barrels daily produced for the same month a year earlier and lower than a fifth of the 1,711 barrels daily pumped during 2017. For the first eight months of 2020 Venezuela’s oil output has averaged 542,750 barrels daily, which is 32% lower than 2019 and well below the nearly three million barrels daily reported for 2000.
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report September 2020. U.S. EIA. * 2020 production is the daily average from January to August 2020.
There appears to be little that Maduro can do to revive Venezuela’s oil industry and curtail the country’s complete economic collapse. U.S. sanctions have made it almost impossible for his regime to access global capital and energy markets, forcing Caracas to look elsewhere for the funding and expertise required to restart Venezuela’s oil industry. That saw Moscow become a lender of last resort as Putin seized the opportunity to exert greater influence in Latin America, but it comes at a cost. Moscow has its own national agenda which is focused on reinstating Russia’s recognition as a great global power, partly by extending Moscow’s international influence by gaining control over Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. The financial assistance provided by Russia, with outstanding loans thought to total at least $4 billion, has seen Moscow take control of Venezuelan oil fields and even consider taking a lien over PDVSA’s crown jewel, its Citgo refinery business.
Moscow’s loans in exchange for oil are doing little to revive Venezuela’s economy or crucial oil industry. This is because there is a severe shortage of the capital required to conduct urgent maintenance while rampant corruption and management malfeasance redirects what little funding is available away from development and maintenance activities. Those issues are magnified by the massive outflow of skilled industry workers which was triggered by Venezuela’s economic implosion. In a devastating blow for the Maduro regime India in response to tighter U.S. sanctions, aimed at cutting the flow of Venezuelan oil exports, ceased importing crude from the pariah state. That comes after exports to China slowed because of the same sanctions, although Beijing and Moscow along with assistance from Iran have been assisting Caracas in transporting oil to buyers.
As a result, Caracas is tightening its relationship with Teheran as it works on overcoming a wide range of obstacles and defeating U.S. sanctions. Recently, Venezuela flew gold to Teheran to pay for cargoes of fuel to stem fuel shortages caused by the breakdown of Venezuela’s refining industry. Caracas did the same in April to pay for Iran’s assistance with rebuilding its crumbling refineries to provide a longer-term solution to shortages of refined petroleum products, notably gasoline.
The decline of Venezuela’s petroleum industry appears terminal.
Russian and Iranian assistance has done nothing to lift oil production, as the August 2020 numbers illustrate, while the volume of operational rigs remains low. Baker Hughes data shows only one operational oil rig for August, although national oil company PDVSA consistently claims that data to be incorrect. The data from Baker Hughes only counts operational rotary rigs drilling for oil. It excludes small truck mounted rigs or those not requiring a permit and does not count rotary rigs being used for well workovers and production testing.
Source: Baker Hughes.
That means there could be a greater number of operational rigs in Venezuela, but they are simply not large enough or engaged in the activities to be counted. If the rig count along with petroleum production represent activity in Venezuela’s oil industry, then it appears to be in terminal decline. A major blow for Caracas was Chevron’s decision to pare down activities in Venezuela after pressure from the U.S. State Department. Chevron was the only international energy major to maintain a genuine presence in the Latin American country providing Caracas with access to the capital and technology to revitalize its oil industry. Venezuela cannot hope to rebuild its shattered petroleum sector without a massive injection of investment, technology and skilled labor. For as long as U.S. sanctions remain in place, which have the objective of initiating regime change, those requirements will not be met.
So far, sanctions have done little to cause Maduro’s downfall or foment any major destabilization of his regime’s grasp on power. If anything, they have strengthened his grip on power and forced Caracas to find alternate means of supporting Venezuela’s deteriorating and extremely fragile economy including cozying up with other pariah states such as Iran. It appears that Maduro and his supporters in the government are determined to stay the course regardless of the pain being felt by the Venezuelan people.
That means the country’s hydrocarbon sector will not recover any time soon, which is a positive development for global energy markets which are experiencing a multi-year supply glut that doesn’t appear ready to go away any time soon. This will keep Venezuela’s economy crippled with crude oil believed to be responsible for a quarter of its GDP and almost all desperately needed export earnings. As a result, hyperinflation, a lack of basic services, unemployment and starvation will remain the norm for Venezuela’s population. The sharp economic decline is preventing Caracas from effectively controlling its territory, allowing non-government armed groups from Venezuela and Colombia to fill the void, sparking further instability which is impacting the oil industry and creating additional hardship for Venezuelans.
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….
Euro/USA 1.1807 UP .0019 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN
USA/JAPAN YEN 105.63 DOWN 0.075 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…
GBP/USA 1.2958 DOWN 0.0036 (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/
USA/CAN 1.3259 DOWN .0008 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 19 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1807 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED
//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 212.87 OR .90%
/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,49%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and Asia
EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 212.87 OR 90%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED
Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.49%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 121.59 POINTS OR 0.52%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1916.70
silver:$24.40-
Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.787% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.
The 30 yr bond yield 1.602 UP 1 IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 93.41 DOWN 16 CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.24% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.04.% UP 1 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.24%//DOWN 0 in basis point yield from yesterday.
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.79 DOWN 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 57 points higher than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.55% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//
THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.29% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1785 DOWN .0004 or 4 basis points
USA/Japan: 105.60 DOWN .107 OR YEN UP 10 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2955 DOWN .0036 POUND DOWN 36 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar DOWN 15 basis points to 1.3273
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan,CNY: closed ON SHORE (x)..GETTING DANGEROUS
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.730 (YUAN up).
TURKISH LIRA: 7.79 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.04%
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.781 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.601 UP 1 in basis points on the day
Your closing USA dollar index, 93.44 down 7 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 7.00 0.12%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 77.71 POINTS OR .61%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 23.59 POINTS 0.48%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 93.80 POINTS or 1.37%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 164.30 POINTS OR 0.85%
WTI Oil price; 40.64 12:00 PM EST
Brent Oil: 42,50 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE RISES: 77.99 THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.11 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 11 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO –.50 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate Plus currencies//DOW/NASDAQ ETC
WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM : 40.13/PM
BRENT : 42.21
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.747..DOWN 4 basis points…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.549 down 5 basis points..
EURO/USA 1.1746 ( DOWN 43 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:105.60 down .103 (YEN up 10 BASIS POINTS/..
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.70 UP 19 cent(s)/
The British pound at 4 pm Britain Pound/USA:1.2898 down 94 POINTS
the Turkish lira close: 7.8-
the Russian rouble 78.32 DOWN 0.22 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 22 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.3305 DOWN 46 BASIS pts
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.51%
The Dow closed DOWN 375.88 POINTS OR 1.34%
NASDAQ closed DOWN 177.88 POINTS OR 1.87%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 29.66 CLOSED UP 1.70
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.220%//libor dropping like a stone
USA trading today in Graph Form
Shart Of The Deal – Stocks & Bond Yields Puke On Trump ‘No Stimulus’ Tweet
Just when you thought it was safe to buy the reflation trade with both hands and feet, Trump takes his ball and refuses to play with Democrats’ demands for state bailouts.
Nancy Pelosi is asking for $2.4 Trillion Dollars to bailout poorly run, high crime, Democrat States, money that is in no way related to COVID-19. We made a very generous offer of $1.6 Trillion Dollars and, as usual, she is not negotiating in good faith. I am rejecting their request, and looking to the future of our Country.
I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business.
I have asked Mitch McConnell not to delay, but to instead focus full time on approving my outstanding nominee to the United States Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett. Our Economy is doing very well. The Stock Market is at record levels, JOBS and unemployment also coming back in record numbers.
We are leading the World in Economic Recovery, and THE BEST IS YET TO COME!
Which prompted this reaction in stocks…
Or put another way…
Small Caps were soaring relative to mega-Tech for most of the day until the Trump tweet reversed things… but its notable where the relative level was when it reversed…
S&P broke below its 50DMA, Dow and Nasdaq also pushed down to that key technical level…
Critically, the S&P failed around its key gamma level at 3410…
Some notable levels below here…
Airlines crashed…
Source: Bloomberg
Banks were battered…
Source: Bloomberg
FANGs fubar…
Source: Bloomberg
Growth and Value were both whacked…
Source: Bloomberg
Cyclicals were hammered…
Source: Bloomberg
Panic hit retail…
Which prompted Dave Portnoy to explains why traders should “buy the dip.”
Bond yields immediately plunged
Source: Bloomberg
10Y dropped back below 75bps…
Source: Bloomberg
Real Yields were notably higher on the day until the Trump tweets hit…
Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar spiked…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold futures fell back below $1900..
Silver was slammed back below $24…
Sending Gold/Silver back above 80x…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices did drop on the ‘no stimulus’ tweet but remain higher on the day, bouncing off $40…
Finally, one has to wonder what happens to the excited upgrades of EPS expectations if there’s no new bailouts…
Source: Bloomberg
Powell was desperately pleading for more fiscal stimulus this morning once again…
Perhaps this is why – he has realized that the liquidity delusion has finally stopped working…
Source: Bloomberg
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
MARKET TRADING//USA
a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA
b)MARKET TRADING/USA//This afternoon:
Stocks reverse course and the Dow is now down more than 300 points
President Donald Trump on Tuesday tweeted that he told his team to stop negotiating with congressional Democrats on a stimulus package until after the election. He said he disagreed with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over money to states and that he planned to pass a “major Stimulus Bill” if he wins against Joe Biden in November. U.S. stocks DJIA, -1.26% dropped sharply after Trump’s series of tweets.
-END-
Pelosi responds…
Pelosi Responds After Trump Unexpectedly Halts Stimulus Talks Until After The Election
Update: In response to Trump’s breaking off stimulus talks, Pelosi unloaded on President:
Today, once again, President Trump showed his true colors: putting himself first at the expense of the country, with the full complicity of the GOP Members of Congress.
Walking away from coronavirus talks demonstrates that President Trump is unwilling to crush the virus, as is required by the Heroes Act. He shows his contempt for science, his disdain for our heroes.
Clearly, the White House is in complete disarray. Sadly, they are rejecting the urgent warnings of Fed Chairman Powell today, that ‘Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses. Over time, household insolvencies and business bankruptcies would rise, harming the productive capacity of the economy and holding back wage growth. By contrast, the risks of overdoing it seem, for now, to be smaller.
Her full statement below:
* * *
We have been warning for weeks that no stimulus deal would happen before the election, and moments ago none other than president Trump confirmed just that.
Trump, who has been in the White House less than a day since his return from Walter Reed, just crashed stocks, bond yields and sent the dollar soaring, when he tweeted that due to Nancy Pelosi’s “bad faith” negotiations, he has instructed representatives “to stop negotiating until after the election” and instead to focus on approving Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.
The full Trump tweetstorm:
Nancy Pelosi is asking for $2.4 Trillion Dollars to bailout poorly run, high crime, Democrat States, money that is in no way related to COVID-19.
We made a very generous offer of $1.6 Trillion Dollars and, as usual, she is not negotiating in good faith.
I am rejecting their request, and looking to the future of our Country. I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business.
I have asked Mitch McConnell not to delay, but to instead focus full time on approving my outstanding nominee to the United States Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett.
Our Economy is doing very well. The Stock Market is at record levels, JOBS and unemployment also coming back in record numbers. We are leading the World in Economic Recovery, and THE BEST IS YET TO COME!
Which is rather odd considering that just 3 weeks ago Trump advised McConnell and all Republicans to “go for the much higher numbers, Republicans, it all comes back to the USA anyway (one way or another!).”
Guess something changed in the meantime…
And speaking of the stock market being at record levels, well not so much as algos were clearly stunned by this unexpected development ending all hopes for a stimulus deal before the election, with risk assets plunging…
… yields tumbled…
… and the dollar soared.
Stocks Dip On Report There Is “Lots Of Skepticism” Among GOP Ranks About Stimulus Deal
With the market clutching at straws, and paying close attention to every “insider report” on the ongoing status of fiscal stimulus talks between Democrats and Republicans, moments ago stocks dipped following the latest cold water on deal optimism when Politico’s Jake Sherman reported that President Trump held a call with Steven Mnuchin, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell about coronavirus relief talks, during which many republicans expressed “lots of skepticism” about the relief package being discussed with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
And, as has been known for the past two months, the two sides remain at odds over aid for state and local governments.
The bottom line, contrary to recent expectations that Trump’s covid diagnosis made a Congressional deal slightly more likely, it appears that the dominant status quo from the past months remains unchanged, and that both sides are unwilling to budge over that final $600BN difference (recall that Republicans are at $1.6 trillion and Dems are at $2.2 trillion), which with every day that passes and brings us closer to the election, makes a deal unlikely.
In kneejerk response stocks dipped lower after hitting a session high 3,410 earlier…
… which as we earlier highlighted is the gamma “call wall” barrier which has emerged as the biggest resistance preventing an acceleration in the S&P to 3500 or higher.
ii)Market data/USA
Not much help on the USA trade deficit: it soars to a 14 year high at 67 billion dollars
(zerohedge)
COVID-Lockdowns Trump Trade War – US Deficit Soars To 14 Year High
It appears COVID-Lockdowns have crushed the US trade war plan…
The US trade balance collapsed to its biggest deficit since 2006 in August at $67.1bn…
Source: Bloomberg
This was worse than the $66.2bn expectation as total imports increased 3.2% to $239 billion, while exports rose 2.2% from the prior month to $171.9 billion.
The further increase in imports suggests companies responded to stronger domestic demand amid lean inventories.
The nation’s surplus in services shrank to the lowest since 2012 as the goods deficit hit a record high…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly the China trade balance improved very marginally in August
Source: Bloomberg
Is it any wonder why the US Dollar is under pressure?
US Labor Market Topping: Job Openings Post First Monthly Drop Since Covid Crash
One month after a schizophrenic JOLTs report showed a concurrent surge in job openings accompanied by a record plunge in hirings, things returned somewhat to normal in August (as a reminder, the BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey is two months delayed), when the number of job openings dipped dropped by 204K to 6.493 million after posting the biggest two-month increase in the previous two months when US employers announced 1.3 million job openings. This was the first monthly drop in total job-opening since the March/April crash in the labor market, suggesting the recent V-shaped recovery in the labor market may be peaking.
Job openings decreased in construction (-68,000), and information (-25,000). The number of job openings decreased in the Midwest region.
Separately, we already knew that the series of 24 consecutive months in which there were more job openings than unemployed workers ended with a thud in March, in April it was an absolute doozy with 18 million more unemployed workers than there are job openings, the biggest gap on record. Since then the the gap has closed somewhat, and in July, there were 7.1 million more unemployed than available job openings (after 9.6 million in July).
As a result, there were just over 2 unemployed workers for every job opening, down from 2.4 last month.
Meanwhile, after a record and unexplained plunge in hiring in July, when the total number of job hires dropped by a 1.2 million to just 5.8 million, in August hiring stabilized modestly, increasing by 16k to 5.919MM from 5.903MM, which still is well below the record hiring pace set in May with 7.2MM.
Hires increased in federal government (+246,000), largely because of temporary 2020 Census hiring. Hires also increased in durable goods manufacturing (+41,000). Hires decreased in accommodation and food services (-177,000), health care and social assistance (-73,000), and real estate and rental and leasing (-28,000).
With hiring relatively flat in August, the number and rate of total separations decreased to 4.6 million (-394,000) and 3.3 percent, respectively. Total separations decreased in other services (-80,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (-56,000). The number of total separations increased in federal government (+13,000).
Of these, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges decreased to series lows of 1.5 million (-272,000) and 1.0 percent, respectively in August. Layoffs and discharges decreased in a few industries, with the largest decreases in professional and business services (-95,000), accommodation and food services (-62,000), and durable goods manufacturing (-42,000). The number of layoffs and discharges increased in federal government (+12,000).
Finally, after the record surge in the number of American quitting their jobs reported back in June, the number of quits edged down to 2.8 million (-139,000) and the quits rate was 2.0 percent. Quits decreased in a number of industries with the largest decreases in other services (-48,000), construction (-40,000), and arts, entertainment, and recreation (-18,000). The number of quits increased in finance and insurance (+36,000).
iii) Important USA Economic Stories
Hearings to confirm Judge Barret begins Oct 12 to Oct 15
(zerohedge)
Senate Judiciary Hearing For Amy Coney Barrett To Take Place Oct 12-15
With Democrats unhappy, to say the least, that Mitch McConnell is pushing through the nomination process of Amy Coney Barrett despite two Republican members on the Senate Judiciary Committee, Senators Mike Lee of Utah and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, testing positive to coronavirus, late on Monday Committee spokeswoman Taylor Reidy tweeted that the dates for Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination hearing have been set, and will start one week from today, Monday, Oct. 12 at 9am and continue through Thursday, Oct. 15.
A feed for next week’s hearing can be found here.
Once the hearings are concluded, Republicans plan to send her nomination to the full Senate by Oct. 22 and confirm her as soon as Oct. 26, eight days before Election Day “even if it meant breaking Senate norms and considering a lifetime judicial nomination by videoconference.”
But, as the NYT added, the latest outbreak raised the possibility that Republicans could lose their slim majority in the Judiciary Committee or on the Senate floor: “It gave Democrats, who were already objecting to Mr. Trump’s push to install a new Supreme Court justice so close to the election, a new reason to call for a delay. Seeing a potential opening, top Democrats called for the Senate to pause and assess the scope of the outbreak. They declared that a fully virtual hearing for a candidate for a lifetime appointment to the nation’s highest court would be unacceptable.”
“It’s critical that Chairman Graham put the health of senators, the nominee and staff first — and ensure a full and fair hearing that is not rushed, not truncated and not virtual,” Senators Chuck Schumer of New York, the minority leader, and Dianne Feinstein of California, the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, said in a joint statement. “Otherwise this already illegitimate process will become a dangerous one.”
On Friday evening, after Sen. Tillis announced his positive test result, Mr. Schumer renewed his call for delay, writing on Twitter that going forward with hearings would be “irresponsible and dangerous.”
“There is absolutely no good reason to do so,” he said.
Despite continued resistance by Democrats, Republican officials said they had no doubt that senators would find a way to muscle through the nomination over Democrats’ protests. Even so, Republicans cannot afford to have many members sidelined by illness, which could provide Democrats an opportunity to stall the proceedings. Two Republican senators, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, have already raised objections to moving ahead before the election, reducing the wiggle room in the 53-47 Republican majority.
Some Republican advisers were pushing to scrap plans to keep the Senate in session next week, hoping to reduce the risk of more Republican senators becoming infected. But adjourning may not be in Mr. McConnell’s control. He had been in favor of allowing senators to go home, but Democrats trying to inflict pain on Republicans for their rush to fill the Supreme Court seat refused to go along, using parliamentary tactics to prevent it.
As for Judge Barrett, it emerged over the weekend that she had already had the coronavirus and recovered this year, potentially providing some immunity for her. But it was not yet clear whether she would continue her courtesy meetings with senators in person next week.
Millions Risk Losing Power Over Unpaid Utilities As Most States’ Pandemic Grace Period Expires
Millions of Americans are facing a dire situation of being without power or water as their utility bills pile up, and as state and local protections which allowed for deferred payments amid the pandemic come to an end.
After a summer of rising unemployment numbers brought on by the crisis, though seeing a promising potential softening of the trend in September, The Washington Post recently detailed some instances of people going as much as two months in the dark after falling behind on utility payments last spring.
“The worst economic crisis in more than a generation has thrust potentially millions of Americans across the country into a similar, sudden peril: Cash-strapped, and in some cases still unemployed, they have fallen far behind on their electricity, water and gas bills, staring down the prospect of potential utility shut-offs and fast-growing debts they may never be able to repay,” the Post summarized of new National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association (NEADA) analysis.
Soon following the start of the pandemic in the US and resulting state lockdowns, most states moved to ensure residents that they would prevent utility shut-offs for an extended grace period. But still the debts have mounted, and at this point, the NEADA finds, only 21 states along with the District of Columbia still have disconnection bans in place.
That means the majority of states are shutting off utilities over unpaid bills. And further, “Millions more in nine other states are set to lose their protections starting Thursday and throughout the fall, the group found,” WaPo reports.
The study found that 179 million Americans are potentially at risk of shut-offs, though with the big and unlikely assumption that the vast amount of households would fail to pay their bills altogether. But still even a small percentage of this number means many hundreds of thousands of households, or even millions, face being in the dark.
Consider a single state, Indiana:
In some cases, the delinquencies appear to be severe. In Indiana, for example, more than 112,000 households are behind 120 days or more on their power bills, a Washington Post analysis of the largest local energy companies’ records found. The debt, totaling millions of dollars, is four times greater than the arrears accrued during the same period in 2019, the data shows.
The report further underscored that the nation’s electric and gas debts alone are likely to exceed a whopping $24.3 billion by year’s end.
Likely adding to the utilities debt crisis for many families is that fact that lockdowns were in place throughout much of the early summer, keeping families indoors more than they would have been, and at a moment of high temperatures.
Las Vegas Records Alarming Surge In Apartment Tenants Unable To Pay Rent
Nevada’s leisure and hospitality sector — which made up around a quarter of the state’s total labor market before lockdowns — has been one of the hardest hit by the virus-induced downturn. The labor market recovery in the state, nevertheless, Las Vegas, could take between 18 and 36 months to recover.
With no quick “V” shaped recovery expected in Vegas, rather one that could resemble a “U” or “L” – households are expected to remain severely pressured as job opportunity remains scarce. And due to months of stimulus checks earlier this year, deleveraging among households could be nearing thanks to a fiscal cliff (read: here). Only another stimulus check can delay the inevitable.
Bloomberg reports tourism on the Las Vegas Strip remains depressed. Now all those workers who were recently laid off can’t afford rent.
RealPage, Inc., who develops multifamily property management software, revealed as of September, an alarming 10.6% of Vegas apartment tenants were unable to pay rent, up from 4.1% a year earlier, the most significant increase of any other metro area in the US.
Los Angeles, New Orleans, Portland, and Seattle were other metro areas where the biggest annual increase in non-paying apartment tenants for the month of September.
Greg Willett, the chief economist at RealPage, said, “there’s more stress in hospitality-focused and expensive markets.”
“The wild card in everything is what happens in the economy, and what happens in the economy is dependent on what happens with the pandemic,” Willett said.
Trump Mulls Nationwide Address, Insists Americans Must “Learn To Live With COVID”
NYT White House reporter Maggie Haberman, who has spent the last 4 days relentlessly chronicling every update in the White House COVID-19 outbreak saga, including Trump’s 72-hour stay at Walter Reed, has just reported that Trump is considering giving a nationwide address on Tuesday.
Haberman, who also reported that Trump still sounds “short of breath”, citing close aides who still speak with him regularly, linked to a report from the NYT which claimed that a “culture of panic” had replaced the “culture of negligence” at the White House. She described the comms shop as “bereft of people”, since the outbreak has taken out both McEnany and some of her top aides.
She added that while Trump stays in the residence, the West Wing has been virtually empty as most White House staffers are working from, either because they have caught the virus, or have been in close contact with somebody who has. She added that the White House “resembled a ghost town” again on Tuesday.
She also confirmed a CNN report claiming another White House aide had tested positive, raising the total infected to an even 30.
Meanwhile, President Trump returned to Twitter Tuesday morning to attack Biden and the Democrats for their support of late-term abortion…
…before reiterating his comments from last night in a tweet where he urged Americans not to be afraid of the virus and insisted “we have learned to live with it”.
According to one source on Twitter, the US hasn’t counted more than 100,000 flu deaths since 1968. Still, Trump’s point that such outbreaks aren’t “unprecedented” stands.
iv) Swamp commentaries)
DNI Declassifies Brennan Notes; Briefed Obama On Intelligence That Hillary Clinton Concocted Trump-Russia Allegations
Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe on Tuesday declassified several documents, including handwritten notes from former CIA John Brennan after he briefed former President Obama on an alleged plot by Hillary Clinton to tie then-candidate Donald Trump to Russia as “a means of distracting the public from her use of a private email server” ahead of the 2016 US election, according to Fox News.
Ratcliffe declassified Brennan’s handwritten notes – which were taken after he briefed Obama on the intelligence the CIA received – and a CIA memo, which revealed that officials referred the matter to the FBI for potential investigative action.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence transmitted the declassified documents to the House and Senate Intelligence Committees on Tuesday afternoon.
“Today, at the direction of President Trump, I declassified additional documents relevant to ongoing Congressional oversight and investigative activities,” Ratcliffe said in a statement to Fox News Tuesday. –Fox News
“We’re getting additional insight into Russian activities from [REDACTED],” read Brennan’s notes. “CITE [summarizing] alleged approved by Hillary Clinton a proposal from one of her foreign policy advisers to vilify Donald Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by the Russian security service.”
Clinton spokesperson Nick Merrill called the allegations “baseless bullshit,” however DNI Ratcliffe said in a statement last week: “To be clear, this is not Russian disinformation and has not been assessed as such by the Intelligence Community,” adding “I’ll be briefing Congress on the sensitive sources and methods by which it was obtained in the coming days.”
A source familiar with the documents told Fox News on Tuesday that the allegation was “not disinformation.”
“This is not Russian disinformation. Even Brennan knew, or he wouldn’t be briefing the president of the United States on it,” the source said. “There is a high threshold to orally brief the president of the United States and he clearly felt this met that threshold.”
Another source familiar with the documents told Fox News that “this information has been sought by hundreds of congressional requests for legitimate oversight purposes and was withheld for political spite—and the belief that they’d never get caught.” –Fox News
And per The Federalist: “There is no evidence the FBI ever took any action to ensure that Russian knowledge of Clinton’s plans did not lead to infiltration of that campaign’s operation by Russian intelligence agents. The CIA referral, specifically its reference to a “CROSSFIRE HURRICANE fusion cell,” suggests that the Obama administration’s anti-Trump investigation may not have been limited to the FBI, but may have included the use of CIA assets and surveillance capabilities, raising troubling questions about whether the nation’s top spy service was weaponized against a U.S. political campaign.”
Meanwhile, Twitter is censoring this story:
As we noted last week after Ratcliffe previewed the allegation:
On September 7, 2016, US intelligence officials forwarded an investigative referral to former FBI officials James Comey and Peter Strzok concerning allegations that Hillary Clinton approved a plan to smear then-candidate Donald Trump by tying him to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian hackers, according to information given to Sen. Lindsey Graham by the Director of National Intelligence.
According to Fox News’ Chad Pergram, “In late July 2016, U.S. intelligence agencies obtained insight into Russian intelligence analysis alleging that U.S. Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had approved a campaign plan to stir up a scandal against U.S. Presidential candidate Donald Trump,” after one of Clinton’s foreign policy advisers proposed vilifying Trump “by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by Russian security services.”
Haspel is deep state and should be put in jail. She was part of the Halper operation against Papadopoulos
(Gatestone)
CIA Director Haspel And The Anti-Trump Conspirators
Authored by Chris Farrell via The Gatestone Institute,
Gina Haspel is the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Haspel is the first career clandestine service officer to become director, and the first woman. She was the CIA Chief of Station in London — twice, and that repeat assignment is very unusual. What is most interesting is the timing of Haspel’s last tour as London Station Chief — from 2014 to early 2017. That is the same timeframe (specifically, the late summer of 2016) when the FBI approached foreign policy academic and “utility government operative” Stefan Halper to begin the operation targeting Carter Page and George Papadopoulos in an FBI-designed foreign counterintelligence operation, against Team Trump, to be launched in Cambridge, England.
Nothing speculative here — the Justice Department Inspector General pegged the exact date of the FBI/Halper meeting as August 10, 2016. Halper had been on contract (again) with the U.S. government since the Iowa Caucuses began in October 2015. For the sake of brevity, I am not discussing Halper’s role in targeting former Defense Intelligence Agency Director, Lieutenant General Mike Flynn. That is another column for another day — and certainly Haspel knows a great deal about that, as well.
The timeframe (2014-2017) matters, because Haspel, as London Station Chief would have been briefed on the FBI’s counterintelligence plan before any actions were approved to go forward. The CIA Station Chief is the top intelligence official in any given country. The FBI must inform the Station Chief of what they planned to do and get Station Chief approval. The FBI hates that, but those are the rules.
Because the various intelligence agencies are sensitive, they do not use the word “approved.” Instead, they use the word “coordinated.”
Jargon aside, nothing would have happened without Haspel’s okay.
Think about this for a while: The current CIA director was an active, knowledgeable party to the efforts to target candidate Trump with a contrived foreign counterintelligence investigation. That carried forward to a more sophisticated and aggressive plan to carry out a soft coup against President Trump. People around President Trump were prosecuted and/or had their lives destroyed based on a scheme of U.S. government lies. Who appears to have been “in on it” from day one? Gina Haspel.
So, when we read in an article by Sean Davis, co-founder of The Federalist, that Haspel is personally resisting the declassification and release of records on “Russiagate,” we are not surprised. In fact, we are relieved, because a few of us have been shouting from the mountaintops about Haspel for years, to no avail. The smarmy James Comey is easier to identify and loathe than the elusive Haspel.
For those seeking more information on Haspel, Shane Harris of the Washington Post wrote a nauseating hagiography of Haspel in July 2019. Consistent with WaPo‘s standards there are several factual errors and loads of opinion masquerading as “tough reporting.” Harris (and one assumes Haspel) makes sure readers know that Haspel and company “boils down” presidential intelligence briefings to “a few key points that they think Trump absolutely needs to know.” We are supposed to also believe that “Trump favors pictures and graphics over text.” Of course, the CIA director’s office did not cooperate with Harris. No, not at all.
The FBI is not allowed to penetrate and subvert a presidential campaign. Executive Order 12333, Section 2.9, “Undisclosed Participation in Organizations in the United States,” prohibits it in plain language. Historically, the prohibition is a consequence of U.S. Army Counterintelligence penetrating Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) at the behest of the FBI during the 1960s — among other abuses of power and authority. That legal prohibition is the reason the FBI felt the need to manufacture a “foreign counterintelligence threat” in the UK and then “import” the investigation back into the United States.
The FBI plotters needed to establish a foreign counterintelligence “event” to run their operation. The UK was the easiest and operationally safest/friendliest place to pull it off, especially with Stefan Halper’s connections to Cambridge. Haspel was clearly fully informed and had “coordinated” the operation. She also enjoyed cordial relationships with MI6 and GCHQ. Now we (largely, but imperfectly) know what transpired. Halper under oath, in public, would fill in a lot of blanks. Gina Haspel, under the same circumstances and conditions, might just complete the puzzle.
Joe Biden Thanks “Black Women” For Enabling His Home-Stay “By Stocking Grocery Shelves”
Another awkward moment that will be wished away by the Biden campaign and its MSM colleagues.
During an NBC News “Roundtable with Veterans” discussion (which streamed live on Sept. 15), the former vice president dropped yet another ‘racial’ remark, insinuating that black women are only fit for work in stocking grocery store shelves.
“…the American public, the blinders have been taken off. They’ve all of a sudden seen a helluva lot clearer… geez, the reason I was able to stay home during the pandemic is because Black women were able to keep the grocery shelves stocked.”
Watch (start at 1:19:45)…
Is that racist? Imagine if Trump or any Republican had said such a condescending thing?
However, Biden’s “black woman” comment went viral fast, sparking many comments, summed up succinctly by Dinesh D’Souza:
MSM will dismiss – probably just a misunderstanding… Mis-speaking? Or more likely, simply ignore it…. because “Hitler”.
Trumps furious over Facebook and Twitter censorship
(zerohedge)
Trump Rages “Repeal Section 230” After Facebook, Twitter Censorship
Update (1220ET): It appears the social media gagging has triggered Trump, who has rage-tweeted: REPEAL SECTION 230!
As a reminder, Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996 provides immunity to online platforms from civil liability based on third-party content and/or for the removal of content in certain circumstances (i.e. undermining free speech).
* * *
Having angered the blue-check-mark gods of social media by daring to recover from COVID and removing his mask while socially-distanced from everyone on the White House veranda, President Trump tweeted (and posted on Facebook) the following:
“Flu season is coming up! Many people every year, sometimes over 100,000, and despite the Vaccine, die from the Flu. Are we going to close down our Country? No, we have learned to live with it, just like we are learning to live with Covid, in most populations far less lethal!!!“
It appears that last phrase upset The Ministry of Truth as Facebook has now removed the post and Twitter flagged it for “spreading misleading and potentially harmful information related to COVID-19.”
There’s just one thing. If you follow the science and the data from CDC… Trump is right…
Here’s the Seasonal Flu mortality data from CDC...
Here’s the COVID mortality data from CDC…
And while the cohorts are not perfectly orthogonal, due to data sourcing issues above, Trump is right that for certain groups, seasonal flu is more deadly than COVID-19…
Of course, the caveat is that we perhaps do not have the full count of the COVID-19 cycle’s impact yet.
More insanity
v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.
Monday
@realDonaldTrump: Tonight [Thursday], @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!
Globally, stocks plunged on Trump’s Covid infection. After the NYSE opened sharply lower, ESZs and stocks commenced a rally because: AP: Trump is experiencing ‘mild’ symptoms of coronavirus
Ex-WH Physician @RonnyJackson4TX: Our President and First Lady have tested positive for COVID-19, however, rest assured they are both fine and completely asymptotic. The President is in very good health and has NO comorbities.
Fox’s @ChadPergram: [Chief of Staff] Meadows says Trump has “mild symptoms and…continues to be energetic. In good spirits”
‘Energetic’ Trump will keep working amid COVID-19 diagnosis: Mark Meadows https://trib.al/5SPw16D
McConnell @senatemajldr: Just finished a great phone call with @POTUS. He’s in good spirits and we talked business — especially how impressed Senators are with the qualifications of Judge Barrett. Full steam ahead with the fair, thorough, timely process that the nominee, the Court, & the country deserve.
The DJIA and Russell 2000 were positive by midday. Fangs and Nasdaq remained sharply lower on the rotation: buy DJTA & the Russell 2000; sell Fangs and Nasdaq. This rotational trade has occurred intermittently, but repeatedly, over the past few months.
Airlines soared on this: Pelosi says agreement on U.S. airline payroll assistance ‘imminent’ http://reut.rs/30rHw1v
The September Employment Report was mixed: NFP of 661k missed the expected 859k; but August and July were revised a net 145k higher. The politically sensitive Unemployment Rate unexpectedly declined to 7.9% from 8.4%. 8.2% was consensus. Wages increased only 0.1%; 0.2% was expected. Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 318,000… Retail trade added 142,000 jobs… health care and social assistance rose by 108,000… https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm
A loss of 216k government jobs was the primary reason for the soft NFP data. BLS: Employment in local government education and state government education fell by 231,000 and 49,000, respectively. A decrease of 34,000 in federal government was driven by a decline in the number of temporary Census 2020 workers. Partially offsetting these declines, employment in local government, excluding education, rose by 96,000… https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
The Labor Force Participation Rate fell to 61.4% from 61.7%; 61.9% was expected. The Underemployment Rate fell to 12.8% from 14.2%. The Employment-population ratio rose 0.1 to 56.6%. Household Survey employed increase 275k; ‘Unemployed’ declined 970k. ‘Not in Labor Force’ increase 879k. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm
Trump‘s 7.9% Unemployment Rate Is Same as When Obama Was Re-elected https://t.co/nePCsElyXS
CNBC: Manhattan apartment sales plunge 46%, 10,000 unsold apartments
San Francisco Rents Crash Most On Record amid Mass Exodus
The median rent for a one-bedroom apartment collapsed more than 20% in September from a year ago to $2,830. Month over month, September rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the city fell by 7%…
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/san-francisco-rents-crash-most-record-amid-exodus
Nancy Pelosi says Trump’s behavior was ‘brazen invitation’ after COVID-19 infection
“This is tragic, it’s very sad, but it also is something that going into crowds, unmasked, and all the rest, was sort of a brazen invitation for this to happen.”…
@charliekirk11: Strange to see Nancy Pelosi lecturing Trump on mask-wearing after going maskless in a San Francisco hair salon just a few weeks ago
@ChrisStigall: Amazing watching Chris Wallace on Fox News sniping at the Trumps for not following mask protocol to his liking at the debate Tuesday night as if Trump is now being punished for misbehaving. Wallace is such a small, angry, self-important man.
@Cernovich: Less than an hour after news broke of Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, the Washington Post tweeted, “Imagine what it will be like to never have to think about Trump again.” [WaPo later deleted it.] https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/1311904974532567040
New York Times questions whether Trump will remain on ballot after COVID-19 positive test
“If he becomes sick, it could raise questions about whether he should remain on the ballot at all”
Rashida Tlaib says Trump ‘only cares about himself’ after COVID-19 diagnosis https://trib.al/fY6ETto
Tom Arnold shares Hope Hicks’ cellphone number after she tests positive for coronavirus
The anti-Trump star suggested fans contact Hicks after her diagnosis [He deleted the tweet.]
@CurtisHouck: More gloating from [CNN’s] Don Lemon about President Trump getting COVID-19 and saying that Biden made the right move to almost never leave his home. This guy is not serious. It’s detestable and evil. https://t.co/UQ7fTd37BB
Twitter: Verified Users Wish Death on Trump, Violating Platform’s Rules
Twitter allowed wishes of death against President Donald Trump from its verified leftist users to stay on the platform Friday morning… “…I hope he dies,” tweeted Zara Rahim, a former national spokeswoman for Hillary Clinton’s campaign and Obama White House staffer… “I hope they both die,” wrote California congressional candidate Steve Cox…
Editor of Soros Outlet Tweets: “I Hope Trump Dies From ANYTHING”
https://thenationalpulse.com/news/eleanor-penny-trump-die/
Minnesota newspaper pulls article mocking Trump, First Lady for catching COVID
Article was “insensitive and in bad taste,” editor said.
@charliekirk11: 40% of Democrats polled are “happy” President Trump got the China Virus, according to a Morning Consult poll.
@JoeConchaTV: Sen. Murphy (D-CT) just hours after Trump COVID News: “If President Trump can’t be out there on the campaign trail for the next two weeks, then he is going to rely on his surrogates. And unfortunately, one of his surrogates is Vladimir Putin.”
@seanmdav: Biden has thus far refused to denounce his supporters’ celebration of Trump’s diagnosis and has also refused to denounce his supporters who are gleefully saying they hope the President and First Lady both die.
@charliekirk11: Former Obama-Biden White House officials are literally tweeting that they hope Trump dies from COVID. Joe Biden’s response? *silence*If we had a real media in America he would be asked to condemn his administration officials.
‘Truly Shameful’: Lindsey Graham Slams Those ‘Wishing Ill’ On Trump, Melania
The Trump campaign on Friday: “All previously announced campaign events involving the President’s participation are in the process of being moved to virtual events or are being temporarily postponed.”
https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1312087797973635073/photo/1
Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: President Trump’s physician says he received a single 8-gram dose of Regeneron’s polyclonal antibody cocktail, zinc, vitamin D, famotidine, melatonin, and a daily aspirin. As of this afternoon he remains “fatigued but in good spirits“. FLOTUS has a mild cough, headache.
Photos showed DJT walking to Marine One to be flown to Walter Reed Hospital on Friday afternoon as a precaution and to work from the presidential office there.
https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/1312155312372150272
CNN’s Jim Acosta panned for tweeting Trump ‘did not stop for questions’ en route to Walter Reed Medical Center https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-jim-acosta-trump-did-not-stop-for-questions
CNN’s Jim Acosta @Acosta on Friday night: Trump adviser said there is reason for concern about Trump’s health tonight. “This is serious,” the source said. The source went on to describe Trump as very tired, very fatigued, and having some trouble breathing. WH officials continue to say Trump will be fine.
@JonathanTurley on Friday night: CNN just interviewed Gov. Whitmer [Michigan] who said that she was not sure if the Vice President was lying when he told them this morning that the President and First Lady are doing well and convalescing at the White House. It is hard to see what in Pence’s one line comment would be viewed by Erin Burnett and Gov. Whitmer as a lie or reason for such speculation.
@latimes: When Reagan was shot, country rallied around, but he hadn’t spent months downplaying assassins
@Rasmussen_Poll responding to @latimes: Desperately unhappy people now own & operate many of our formerly great legacy media properties. For shame.
@charliekirk11: Just so we’re clear—many of the same people who have begged Trump to “condemn hate” are now hoping he dies just because of his politics.
Trump Faking Covid? Michael Moore, Other Leftists Peddle New Conspiracy Theory
MSNBC’s Joy Reid suggests Trump is faking his COVID diagnosis
The COVID Chaos Is a Net Plus for Trump’s Campaign
Their dancing around hoping that Donald Trump will die, and that his wife will die too, is repellent to normal human beings…Trump’s going to get sympathy from normal people. The big question for the next two weeks is going to be “How is Donald Trump doing?” not “What did Donald Trump do now?” Him being sick also makes it harder for the lib media to drop their daily bombshell on him. How can you pick on this poor sick guy?…
Biden traveled to Grand Rapids, Michigan on Friday despite the national Covid hysteria because after the debate, Trump jumped 4 points in the Gallup Poll and 3 points in the IBD/TIPP poll (Biden by 2.6, margin of error +/-3). The later poll accurately forecasted the 2016 Election.
Biden slammed Trump with his usual canned speech but added that people should wear masks and not act like a ‘tough guy’. This did not go well with the crowd or the public. After this error, Team Joe reacted.
AP: Biden campaign set to remove all negative ads about President Trump
@IngrahamAngle: Claiming otherwise doesn’t change the fact that Joe Biden attacked President Trump in Michigan. Will be “the first presidency in modern history” re. job losses, Social Security lie
@TimMurtaugh: Joe Biden used his speech in Michigan today to attack the President repeatedly on Social Security, the economy, and job creation. Now Biden wants credit for being magnanimous?
Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: Trump campaign will NOT pull negative ads as Biden camp did, calling out ‘attacks’ in Biden’s speech. On fundraising email naming Lyin’ Obama, Phony Kamala, and Sleepy Joe, @TimMurtaugh says “Obama is raising money for Biden tonight…”
Joe Biden Still Running Negative Ads on Facebook: America Great Again ‘When Trump Is Purged From Our Lives’ https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/03/joe-biden-still-running-negative-ads-on-facebook-america-great-again-when-trump-is-purged-from-our-lives/
Trump campaign blasts Biden for running negative ads while president is hospitalized
The Democrat’s campaign pledged to take down negative ads after Trump contracted coronavirus
“Despite pledging to stop his negative advertising, nearly 100 negative Biden ads slandering the president and lying about his record have aired today while the president is at Walter Reed,”…
@charliekirk11: Compare how conservatives reacted to & mourned the death of RBG to how Democrats are celebrating Trump contracting COVID. Vote accordingly this November.
@Jkylebass: Trump tests positive for the Wuhan Virus Microbe on China’s National Day 2020. Xi intentionally continued to allow international flights to leave Wuhan AFTER he shut down travel within China. Xi knowingly infected the rest of the world with this insidious virus.
Supreme Court nominee tested positive for coronavirus this summer, has since recovered
Sen. Ron Johnson, Kellyanne Conway Test Positive; 24 Infected In White House COVID-19 Outbreak
1+2. President & Melania Trump
- Bill Stepien, Trump campaign mgr
- Hope Hicks
- Kellyanne Conway
- Sen. Ron Johnson
- Sen. Mike Lee
- Sen. Thom Tillis
- Ronna McDaniel
- Notre Dame Pres. Jenkins
11-13. Three WH reporters
14-24. Eleven staffers from Cleveland debate
He is the third GOP senator to test positive, and – like Lee and Tillis – he also attended Saturday’s event in the Rose Garden [Amy Coney Barrett’s SCOTUS nomination]…
Chris Christie tested positive for COVID on Saturday.
City of Cleveland reports 11 COVID-19 cases stemming from presidential debate
Most who tested positive were from out of state
@ABC on Saturday morn: Dr. Sean Conley, physician to the president: “At this time the team and I are extremely happy with the progress the president has made.” “Thursday he had a mild cough and some nasal congestion and fatigue, all of which are now resolving and improving.” http://abcn.ws/3iq0BHC
Late Saturday morning, Dr. Conley said DJT has been fever free for over 24 hours.
@PhilipWegmann: Reporter: Why was the decision made to transfer the president to Walter Reed?
President’s physician: “Because he is the president of the United States.”
@BryanDeanWright: A reporter just asked if the President is a patient at Walter Reed hospital. The doctor — standing in front of Walter Reed hospital talking about Trump inside — responded in the affirmative, and with a tone that suggested he wanted to admit her to the psych ward.
This is not a parody! @ABC: Pres. Donald Trump may reasonably expect to be treated with a higher level of care and attention than the average American infected with COVID-19. Experts say that may not be a good thing. [You can’t make this up!] https://t.co/5f2eooLYKm
CNN’s & Harvard prof @juliettekayyem: It is very likely that Russian intelligence agencies — through signal and human intel sources at Walter Reed, etc — have more information about the President’s condition than we do (though I think we all know how the president is doing.) [You can’t make this up!]
Trump beating Biden despite being hospitalized with covid [Democracy Inst Sunday Express poll]
The poll was completed after the news broke that President Trump and his wife Melania have been infected by Covid-19. But 68 percent said the illness would not affect their vote while 19 percent said they were “more likely” to support Trump and only 13 percent “less likely”. Almost two thirds said they felt sympathy and concern for the President while 38 percent said him getting the disease was “karma” in an indication of the current divisive nature of US politics… Mr Trump’s lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent… https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1343305/US-election-poll-donald-trump-coronavirus-covid-joe-biden-exclusive-polling
Biden Leads Trump 49%-47%; New John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions Poll Taken After President Checks Into Walter Reed – August 29th had Biden leading by six points (48% to 42%).
- By a margin of 43%-40%, voters still think that Mr. Trump will win the election
- The President’s job approval has climbed to 50% while 47% disapprove
“It looks like the president has not been hurt by his debate performance nor his hospitalization…”
@Peoples_Pundit: It’s interesting to at least point out, we asked Florida voters how comfortable they were telling pollsters “about your political beliefs, such as how you intend to vote“. 44.4% of indies were at least somewhat uncomfortable telling us, including 22.2% “very uncomfortable”.
This why Team Biden has done a 180 on personal canvassing and Joe campaigning from his home!
@PollWatch2020: The new NBC/WSJ poll (Biden +14) is piñata material. 800 Registered Voters? D+8 (actually +9)? September and October polls should be using at least 1000 likely voters, better yet use 1200 to 1500 LVs. Plus we are looking at a D+2 to D+4 (probably +2-3). Not D+8 (or 9).
FOX: [GOP Rep] Steve Scalise says Nancy Pelosi turned down proposal to implement coronavirus testing on Capitol Hill
Trump posted a 4-minute speech on his twitter account on Saturday night – no doubt to dispel MSM reports that he was seriously ill or on his death bed.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1312525833505058816?s=09
Biden had ‘lids’ on Saturday and Sunday; but, Jill campaigned in Minnesota on Saturday.
On Sunday morning, Trump’s doctor said the President has no respiratory symptoms, has been fever free since Friday morning and DJT could be discharged to return to the White House as early as today.
White House doctor says Trump has improved after oxygen drops Friday and Saturday — he could be discharged Monday – but his condition has continued to improve…
ON Sunday, Trump drove past his supporters outside Walter Reed Medical Center. Libs and the MSMs had a meltdown, saying DJT jeopardized the Secret Service. The Secret Service is around the prez at all times; and if masks work, there is no problem. https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1312868050773987328
Catherine Herridge @CBS_Herridge: Doctors okayed POTUS drive-by supporters. Deputy Press Secretary tells @markknoller “Appropriate precautions were taken in the execution of this movement to protect POTUS + all those supporting it, including PPE…cleared by the medical team as safe to do.”
@business: New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said he’ll close businesses and schools in nine neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens where there have been surges in coronavirus infections
Michigan Is Now Unlocked’: State Supreme Court Strikes Down Emergency Powers Law
The Michigan Supreme Court on Friday struck down a 1945 law that Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) has been using to keep the state locked down since April… “Is in violation of the Constitution of our state because it purports to delegate to the executive branch the legislative powers of state government…”
@jacobkschneider [Disturbing clip released on Thursday night]: “This is a guy who’d, you know, let you park your cars where I come from and right here in Greensburg, and, uh, to, park it your cars at their parking l—in their country club, and never let you join.” – Joe Biden https://twitter.com/jacobkschneider/status/1311856429486280706
Secretly recorded tapes show Melania Trump’s frustration at criticism for family separation policy and her bashing of Christmas decorations – Secretly recorded by Stephanie Winston Wolkoff, a former friend and senior adviser to the first lady who wrote a book about their relationship, “Melania and Me.”… The tapes were played exclusively on CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360” on Thursday night and were recorded by Wolkoff after she left the White House… [CNN took fire for airing the quisling’s trash.]
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/melania-trump-tapes/index.html
@CBSDenver: Colorado Secretary Of State Asks Media Not To Report Results On Election Night
“Our democracy cannot be held hostage to a ratings race. If you care about our democracy, you will protect it. Full Stop,” Griswold tweeted. “We are in the middle of a pandemic and the President of the United States has telegraphed that he may claim victory on election night, even when millions of ballots will not have been counted,” she continued…
The lady protesteth too much! She fears that a big Trump lead that disappears after mail-in ballots are counted days, if not weeks, later will project Dem chicanery.
Florida man who requested ballot for dead wife: ‘I feel like I haven’t done anything wrong’
[Remember, there is NO evidence of voter fraud in the USA! It was in all the papers!]
Tuesday
@realDonaldTrump: I will be leaving the great Walter Reed Medical Center today at 6:30 P.M. Feeling really good! Don’t be afraid of Covid. Don’t let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump Administration, some really great drugs & knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!
@KaitMarieox: Liberals have been brainwashed by the media into thinking that if you test positive for COVID, you’re going to die. They have no idea that nearly half of the people who test positive will never show symptoms, and 99% will survive according to their beloved CDC
Without fear of Covid deaths, the left and MSM lose the narrative that allows fascist governors and mayors to control people and lockdown economies and schools – and demonize Trump.
@thehill: Gov. Andrew Cuomo: “I have to say to the Orthodox community tomorrow, ‘If you’re not willing to live with these rules, then I’m going to close the synagogues.'”
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1313180695599222786
Dr. Sean Conley during the final hour of trading: “Over the past 24-hours, the President has continued to improve. He’s met or exceeded all standard hospital discharge criteria and will receive another dose of Remdesivir here today, and then we plan to get him home… Though he may not entirely out of the woods yet, the team and I agree that all our evaluations and most importantly his clinical status support the president’s safe return home.. There’s nothing that’s being done here [Walter Reed] upstairs that we can’t safely conduct at home [WH]. DJT can resume campaigning when “there is no evidence of live virus that he can possibly transmit to others…usually a ten-day window…” DJT will be checked routinely for signs of live virus. “We’re going to do whatever it takes for the president to safely conduct business wherever [DJT’s WH quarters or The Oval Office] it is.”
Dr. Simone Gold @drsimonegold: Out of 70,000+ positive reported COVID-19 cases on Universities:
3 hospitalizations; 0 deaths https://twitter.com/drsimonegold/status/1313199258393145344
Joe Biden yesterday in Florida: “Think about this. Wouldn’t it be an irony, the irony or all ironies, if on election eve, it turned out patience delivered a coup de grace [Death blow given to a wounded person] in this election?” https://twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1313201736782315520
Is Biden trying to lose? To invoke a death blow for Trump while DJT is recovering from Covid is…
NB: Biden is staged before a mural to look like he drew a crowd.
Biden: “The reason I was able to stay sequestered in my home is because some black woman was able to stack the grocery shelf.” [A bit racist ya think?] https://twitter.com/Harry1T6/status/1313211212356878341
Biden: “I’m coming back and I want to see these beautiful young ladies, I wanna see them dancing when they are four years older.” [Creepy Joe surfaces!] https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1313241891153031171
@ZaidJilani: For anyone curious what the demographic breakdown of grocery store workers is
[Females: 14.2% Black, 59.5% White, 18.5% Hispanic] https://twitter.com/ZaidJilani/status/1313225755443240960/photo/1
As bad as the media meltdowns were on Sunday when DJT took a short ride to wave to supporters, it was far worse yesterday. Trump Derangement Syndrome exploded to a new all-time high on Monday!
WaPo’s @JRubinBlogger [Berkeley educated attorney, no medical degree]: Congress might want to defund Walter Reed. It is a public health hazard. Is there no one at Walter Reed with the nerve to speak out publicly to warn others and express they objected to this dangerous course of conduct? After election there’s going to need to be a thorough review and AMA will need to consider discipline if appropriate
@anoncatanoncat : Trump salutes Marine One after taking his mask off. MSNBC calling it a “Mussolini Moment.” CNN calling it “something out of North Korea.” https://twitter.com/anoncatanoncat/status/1313255841877954560
The MSM went berserk that DJT took off his mask while alone on a WH balcony! Biden held a town hall last night and did NOT wear a mask! https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1313271268020555788/photo/1
https://twitter.com/TCPigott/status/1313282086485331968
https://twitter.com/MarinaMedvin/status/1313294517882290178
NY Post’s Miranda Devine: The virus is no longer a death sentence. Treatments have been found, the fatality rate has plummeted and vaccines are on the horizon. For political advantage, Democrats have tried to keep Americans scared, depressed and under house arrest, while blaming the president for every COVID death. Sensible Americans reject this perverse framing of the pandemic…
https://nypost.com/2020/10/04/coronavirus-battle-shows-the-bravery-of-president-trump-devine/
Trump issued this video last night: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313267615083761665
@JoeBiden: Folks, starting today, I’m trying something new. I’ll be writing notes to youabout my plans to build our country back better. And I’ll be sharing personal stories and behind-the-scenes moments from the campaign trail, too. I hope you’ll follow along. [What does this say about the polls?]
@charliekirk11: The fact that the media is upset & panicking over Trump recovering from COVID and leaving Walter Reed tells you everything you need to know about their hate-filled agenda.
@tomselliott: Reporter on hot mic caught saying, after news of Trump’s health improving, “That wasn’t as fun as yesterday” https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1313153588382834689
Rep. Jim Jordan @Jim_Jordan: Does it seem like the Democrats and the mainstream press are upset that the President is recovering?
Rush Limbaugh: “I can’t find a Democrat who has the virus. I don’t believe in coincidences.”
Intel Sources: CIA Director Gina Haspel Banking On Trump Loss To Keep Russiagate Documents Hidden – Haspel is hoping Trump loses his re-election bid so she can run out the clock on Russiagate document declassifications, multiple intelligence community officials told The Federalist.
NBA Finals Game 2 Ratings Collapse 68% to All-Time Low
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/nba-finals-game-2-ratings-collapse-68-all-time-low
Well that is all for today
I will see you WEDNESDAY night.
harveyorganblog.com 
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
LikeLike
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
LikeLike
Dear Harvey, thanks for taking the time to do your blog. I’ve read it for years.
I would like to point out that (re Venezuela), Juan Guaido is nothing more than a corny stooge of the US State Dept and to blame Maduro for Venezuela’s financial predicament is blind.
The US govt has been financially attacking Venezuela for 30years(?) or more and runs the financial system as a weapon to be used against any country that dares try and retain some of their wealth.
Talk of socialism is misguided.
EVERY single country which stands up to US theft is branded evil. You should be able to see the pattern.
LikeLike