GOLD:$1904.00 UP $1.50
Silver:$24.30 DOWN $0.18 London spot price ( cash market)
your data…
Closing access prices: London spot
i)Gold : $1902.30 LONDON SPOT 4:30 pm
ii)SILVER: $24.29//LONDON SPOT 4:30 pm
DONATE
CLOSING FUTURES PRICES: KEY MONTHS
OCT GOLD: 1902.00 CLOSE 1.30 PM// SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /: $1.80-0 BACKWARD//
DEC. GOLD $1903.70 CLOSE 1.30 PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC $0.30/ BACKWARD
CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH
SILVER NOV COMEX CLOSE; $24.27…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT// : ( 3 CENTS BACKWARD/
SILVER DECEMBER CLOSE: $24.34 1:30 PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC. : 4 CENTS PER OZ CONTANGO ( 0 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL) CONTANGO
COMEX DATA
JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)
receiving: 14/154
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,902.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/23/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 10/27/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
099 H DB AG 1
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 7
135 H RAND 1
323 C HSBC 100
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 22
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 15 5
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 129
661 C JP MORGAN 3
661 H JP MORGAN 11
690 C ABN AMRO 5
905 C ADM 9
____________________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL: 154 154
MONTH TO DATE: 34,326
issued 0
GOLDMAN SACHS STOPPED 0 CONTRACTS.
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR OCT. CONTRACT: 154 NOTICE(S) FOR 15400 OZ (.4790 tonnes)
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR: 34,326 NOTICES FOR 3,432,600 OZ ( 106.768 tonnes)
SILVER//OCTOBER CONTRACT
0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month: 2269 for 11,345,000 oz
MARGIN REQUIREMENTS INCREASE FOR SILVER
BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE $13,163 UP 134
BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.: $12,984 DOWN 48 DOLLARS .
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GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:
WITH GOLD UP $1.50 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:
WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT: WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?
WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE AT THE GLD; 1.77 TONNES WITHDRAWAL
FROM THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS:
GLD: 1,263.77 TONNES OF GOLD//
WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:
NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//
SLV: 561.194 MILLION OZ./
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Let us have a look at the data for today
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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 472 CONTRACTS FROM 158,749 UP TO 159,221 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.09 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO CONSIDERABLE BANKER AND ALGO SHORT COVERING.. COUPLED AGAINST A TINY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL (350 CONTRACTS). WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR OCT. WE HAD A GOOD NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1105 CONTRACTS (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).
WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD 415 COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE: OCT 0; DEC: 415, MARCH 0 FOR ZERO ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 415 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL. THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS
HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.
JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);
FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ
FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ
FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION OZ S
FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.
FOR NOV: A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING AND
21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.
5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.
2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:
27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.
3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.
18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.
2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//
22.605 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR JULY
10.025 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.
43.030 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)
7.32 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT
2.630 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.
20.970 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN DEC
5.075 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN
1.480 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB
23.005 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR
4.660 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL
45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY
2.205 MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE
86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.
6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST
55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT
11.355 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.
FRIDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL $0.09) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (1105) CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE GAIN IN OI WAS DUE TO i) HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING. WE ALSO HAD ii) A TINY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A ZERO GAIN IN SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCTOBER, iii) FAIR COMEX GAIN AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..
We have now switched to silver for our spreaders!!
FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:
SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV 1)
SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:
FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV.
FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;
THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER. THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE
MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:
.
AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:
“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.
HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT. HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV FOR GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS
OCT
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF OCT:
7742 CONTRACTS (FOR 18 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 7742CONTRACTS) OR 38.71 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 430 CONTRACTS OR 2.150 MILLION OZ/DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF OCT: 38.71 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 5.53% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 1,498.24 MILLION OZ.
JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ
FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL : …… 259.600 MILLION OZ
MARCH EFP’S ….. 452.280 MILLION OZ //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)
APRIL EFP 95.355 MILLION OZ. (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)
MAY EFP FINAL: 77.27 MILLION OZ
JUNE EFP 71.15 MILLION OZ.
JULY EFP 133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)
AUGUST EFP 127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)
SEPT EFP 78.360 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)
OCT EFP 38.71 MILLION OZ (LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE FALLING OFF A CLIFF IN NUMBERS)
RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 690, DESPITE OUR $0.09 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///FRIDAY.…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 415 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.
TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED 1105 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES(DESPITE OUR $0.09 FALL IN PRICE)//
THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL
i.e 415 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A FAIR SIZED INCREASE OF 472 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.09 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $24.58 // FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY.
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.797 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 114% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW OCT DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ OF SILVER.
IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)
GOLD
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3,497 CONTRACTS TO 557,552 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY DECREASE IN PRICE OF $0.80 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// FRIDAY. WE PROBABLY HAD STRONG BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AND ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX….THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.80. I FEEL THAT DOMINANT FORCE IN CONTRACTION OF OI WAS BANKER SHORT COVERING. THEY ARE TRYING TO “GET OF DODGE” QUICKLY AS THEY FEEL SOMETHING IS “UP”…(MAYBE A SUDDEN REVALUATION IN GOLD?)
WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0 4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST 74//
WE HAD A TINY LOSS OF 597 CONTRACTS (1.856 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED 2900 CONTRACTS:
CONTRACT .; OCT: 0 DEC: 2900; JUNE: 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2900. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 557,552. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 597 CONTRACTS: 3,497 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2900 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS OF 596 CONTRACTS OR 1.8656 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2900) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3497 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES: 597 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT OCT. MONTH TO 108.04 TONNES) 3) TINY LONG LIQUIDATION ;4) FAIR COMEX OI LOSSAND 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ...ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR TINY LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//FRIDAY//$0.80.
WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY
OCT.
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 119.75 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 119.75/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.37% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE: 3,656.52 TONNES
JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES
FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE : 653.78 TONNES
MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE 1,098.93 TONNES (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)
APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE: 243.45 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)
MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)
JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 192.06 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE EXTREMELY LOW)
JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)
AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; 150.78 TONNES FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)
SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 178.49 TONNES (EFP’s AGAIN RISING DUE TO BACKWARDATION/LOWER FUTURE PREMIUMS//THUS LESS COST TO CARRY)
OCT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE. 119.75 TONNES (LOOKS LIKE THESE ARE DROPPING IN NUMBERS AGAIN)
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 472 CONTRACTS FROM 158,749 UP TO 159,221 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 2 3/4 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.
THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR OCT., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION
EFP ISSUANCE 415 CONTRACTS..
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
OCT: 0 AND DEC. 415 AND MARCH: 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 415 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 472 CONTRACTS TO THE 415 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 887 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.435 MILLION OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.09 LOSS IN PRICE///
BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH SILVER AND GOLD .
(report Harvey)
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.88 PTS OR 0.82% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 132.65 PTS OR .54% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 22.25 POINTS OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.26%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil DOWN TO 39.04 dollars per barrel for WTI and 40.92 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7010. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6975 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19 : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
We had 3 kilobar transactions +
ADJUSTMENTS: 3 //
OUT OF BRINKS: DEALER TO CUSTOMER:
i) Brinks: 60,668.937
ii_HSBC: 2501.388
iii) out of Malca: 260,243.100 ox (8100 kilobars)
The front month of OCT registered a total of 564 contracts for a LOSS of 402 contracts. We had 531 notices filed on Friday so we gained A STRONG 129 contracts or 12,900 additional oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October. I wrote this at the beginning of the month:” In gold we have not seen queue jumping start so early in the month. Thus you can bet the farm that throughout October, the total number of gold oz standing will increase from this level.” Seems that I was right on this very important development. We started the month at 95 tonnes and now so far we have 108 tonnes standing!!!!
November LOST 109 contracts to stand at 1735.
NOVEMBER OI NUMBERS ARE NOT CONTRACTING MUCH. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE ANOTHER DANDY DELIVERY FOR GOLD FOR THIS UPCOMING DELIVERY MONTH.
The big December contract LOST 4682 contracts DOWN to 440,264 contracts..
THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH OI STANDING FOR OCTOBER (108.04 tonnes). GENERALLY OCTOBER IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY(GOLDMAN SACHS) JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE ON OCTOBER FOR PHYSICAL METAL. GOLDMAN SACHS ONE OF THE LEADERS OF THE NEW LONDON LME EXCHANGE NEEDS THE GOLD INVENTORY FOR LIQUIDITY AND INITIAL CONTRIBUTION WITH OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MONTH AND OTHER MONTHS IS THAT THIS GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER WILL LEAVE THE COMEX AND HEAD FOR LONDON.
We had 154 notices filed today for 15,400 oz OR .4790 TONNES.
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (34,326) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (564 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (154 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,473,600 OZ OR 108.04 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of Oct
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2020 contract month:
No of notices filed so far (34,326, x 100 oz +564 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (154) x 100 oz which equals 3,473,600 oz standing OR 108.04 TONNES in this active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a OCT delivery month (a poor active delivery month).
We gained 129 contracts or an additional 12,900 oz will stand on this side of the pond searching for metal.
NEW PLEDGED GOLD: BRINKS
593,649.694 oz NOW PLEDGED SEPT 15.2020/HSBC 18.465 TONNES ( A HUGE INCREASE FROM 10.6)
60,784.803 PLEDGED APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA/ OCT 23: 1.8906 tonnes
deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7 (600 tonnes)
277,934.09 oz (some deleted august 3) JPM 8.644 TONNES
610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/ July 2/July 21 19.017 tonnes
67,289.041 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.092 tonnes JPM
total pledged gold: 1,609,895.918 oz 50.074 tonnes
total registered, pledged and eligible (customer) gold 37,532,664.459 oz 1,167.42 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
total 4 GC gold: 126.34 tonnes
total gold net of 4 GC: 1041.08 tonnes
end
I have compiled data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months
The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.
I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month. I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.
The first graph is a logarithmic graph and the second graph, linear.
You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.
THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL
And now for the wild silver comex results
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory |
221,913.460 oz
Brinks
CNT
|
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory |
546,552.500 oz
Manfra
|
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory |
2035.000 oz
Delaware
|
| No of oz served today (contracts) |
0
CONTRACT(S)
nil OZ)
|
| No of oz to be served (notices) |
2 contracts
10,000 oz)
|
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 2269 contracts
11,345,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/10/26/silvers-value-remains-under-lock-and-key/
Silver’s Value Remains Under Lock and Key
Posted October 26th, 2020 at 9:31 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.
Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,
Gold is struggling to go green under Britain’s trading period with the December contract at $1,905.40, up 20 cents and close to the high at $1,907.50 and a low not that far away at $1,892.50. Silver must be super valuable because it’s kept under complete lock and key with its trade at $24.385, down 29 cents after being dipped to $24.145 with the high up at $24.765. The US Dollar is up 17.5 points at 92.94 after it made it up to 93.065 with the low at 92.73. Of course, all this happened before the Comex open, the London close, and after a massive Freudian slip, or a real f-up, by Joe Biden when he said he was assembling the “most extensive voter fraud organization in history”. Come-on-Man, where is your correction, if there is one? Just think what would happen if he made a gaffe like this as a president with a nuclear enemy?
In Venezuela, Gold is now valued at 19,030.18 Bolivar, shaving off 8.19 since Friday morning with Silver’s value now pegged at 243.545, proving a bigger price purge as the metal loses 5.094 in Bolivar value. Argentina’s Peso price for Gold is now at 148,800.05 showing a 429.97 A-Peso reduction with Silver being dragged down to 1,904.00 A-Peso’s reducing its value by 37.48. Turkey’s currency is the only one allowing a price rise with Gold gaining 104.46 T-Lira with the last trade at 15,356.45, yet Silver still “isn’t allowed” a price rise with its last trade at 196.488, down 1.942 T-Lira from Friday’s close.
October Silver’s Delivery Demands have had no additional purchases since last Wednesday with the count now at 2 and once again with no Volume up on the board so far today. This would be an ideal time for Mr. Resolute to pop in a quarter million-ounce order since the delivery boys have nothing else to do but wait, after they delivered 2 contracts leaving 2 orders on hold for at least another day. It must be really hard to pick which set of 1,000-ounce bars, brought in from all those new Comex smelters, to give to those last standing orders. Even though no physical purchases have shown up for Comex Silver, the papers are, as another 649 short contracts got added bringing the Overall Open Interest to 159,440 shorts against the physicals.
October Gold’s Delivery Demands now has 564 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 84 up on the board with a trading range between $1,897.80 and $1,893.50 with the last buy at $1,897.60, down $4.40. Friday’s full day of activity happened in between $1,913.30 and $1,896.20 with the last swap at $1,902, a gain of 90 cents that had a total of 287 swaps, helping to reduce the demand count by 402 that may have gotten receipts somewhere. Gold’s Overall Open Interest lost 3,445 paper contracts, bringing the count to 557,787 Overnighters. How can the OI drop in Gold when the demands continue, with no new orders in Silver, yet it’s paper count rises?
Today Judge Amy Coney Barrett should be elected as the next SCOTUS, after Sunday’s successful procedural vote. We are now seeing the last set of data blockers that need to be removed to get the information out to the people so they can see what has been going on inside and away from prying eyes. These appointed and not elected people, have been intentionally sitting on data that would prove either the hoax was Russian or Democratic but will not release anything. Just like that former NYSD Geoffrey Berman ‘because he refused to drop Prince Andrew from the Epstein Investigation. Now President Trump promises he will ‘immediately’ fire FBI Director Christopher Wray and CIA Director Gina Haspel, along with Defense Secretary Mark Esper for doing nothing but sitting on data that should have been released over a year ago. If Trump was truly guilty, this data would have been used instead of Christopher Steele’s Fake Dossiers four years ago, so what is it they are intentionally sitting on? Could it be another Weiner or Biden laptop full of evidence?
Still we sit with physical precious metals, while all this crap gets played out. Even though margins have been raised 2 times within a month, it will not stop the physical buyers from buying, it will only keep small speculators away from the arena where the biggest profits are to be made because of leverage and control. If you trade stocks or commodities, God Bless You and Your Strength! If you hold physicals, give a prayer to those that trade against the proven central manipulators, keep that smile on your face and enjoy the ride. As always …
Stay Strong!
Jeremiah Johnson
More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.
US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case
- The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
- A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
- In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.
CNBC.com
The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.
The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.
The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.
Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.
Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.
Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.
In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”
“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.
J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.
Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”
Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.
In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.
Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.
Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.
In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.
Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.
Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.
The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.
Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market
- Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
- Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.
Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.
Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.
Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.
That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.
Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.
Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.
On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.
“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.
The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.
In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.
end
March 4.2019
Parker City News
JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader
Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.
At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.
The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.
The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.
A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.
Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.
Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.
Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.
Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.
One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”
J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.
The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.
After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.
Kovel declined to comment.
Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.
-END-
Futures Tumble, European Tech Stocks Plunge Amid Surging Virus Cases, Reflation Trade Fears
US equity futures, European tech stocks and global shares were hit hard on Monday as surging coronavirus cases in Europe (over the weekend, Spain announced a national curfew) and the United States clouded the global economic outlook, while sliding odds of a “Blue Wave” according to online bettor PredictIt sparked fresh doubt in the reflation trade; meanwhile China’s leaders meet to ponder the future of the world’s 2nd largest economy. Emini futures dropped as much as 1.1% in early Monday trading.
Boeing slid 1.3% in pre-market trading after China announced it will impose unspecified sanctions on the defense unit of Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon after the U.S. approved $1.8 billion in arms sales to Taiwan last week.
Even though by now it’s abundantly clear no deal is coming before the election, some traders remained focused on the prospect of a U.S. economic aid package, even as time runs out to finish a deal by the November election after months of wrangling. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the burden is on President Donald Trump to push forward on stimulus talks, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said there’s been significant progress, but blamed Pelosi for holding up an agreement.
“The current mood in the market is bracing and non committal,” said Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote Bank SA. “The concern around the Covid-19 pandemic and U.S. fiscal stimulus is dominating the market. Everyone is talking up the Blue Wave, but behind the scenes ‘what if 2016 repeats?’ is keeping investors cautious.”
On the covid front, the United States saw its highest ever number of new COVID-19 cases in the past two days, while France also set case records and Spain announced a state of emergency. The World Health Organization’s director general said some countries in the northern hemisphere are facing a “dangerous moment” after U.S. infections hit a record for the second day. European countries are also tightening restrictions on business. Spain has announced a nationwide curfew and Italy introduced the strongest measures since May. That combined with no clear progress on a U.S. stimulus package and caution ahead of the election to drag the MSCI world equity index down 0.2%.
“The decreasing likelihood of U.S. fiscal stimulus pre-election, possibly even pre year-end, as well as worsening virus numbers and increasing lockdown measures all seem to be taking the shine of what was a rather complacent market view of the outlook,” said James Athey, investment director at Aberdeen Standard Investments.
In Europe, the Euro STOXX 600 shed 0.8%, let by Europe’s Stoxx Tech Index which fell as much as 6.3%, its biggest one-day loss since March, as SAP’s outlook cut weighs on software peers and IT services stocks.
Shares of SAP – which accounts for more than 20% of the index – plunged as much as 21%, its worst day since January 1999 after the software company cut its 2020 outlook saying that pandemic will hurt business through mid-2021. Analysts saw this as a sign that a recovery from pandemic-induced weakness had likely been pushed out, and were particularly disappointed that SAP pushed the timeline for its mid-term goals out to 2025 from 2023, with the targets lower than expectations.
The plunge in SAP shares dragged the German DAX index as much as 2.7% lower to a three-month low. Milan’s blue-chip index sank 1.2% as new curbs on public venues overshadowed Friday’s positive news that ratings agency S&P Global upgraded the nation’s sovereign outlook to stable from negative. Bayer AG climbed 2.8% after agreeing to buy U.S. biotech company Asklepios BioPharmaceutical Inc. for as much as $4 billion, bolstering its pharma division with experimental gene therapies before patents expire on some key drugs.
Not helping the dour European mood was the latest German IFO data whose expectations component came at 95.0, below the 96.0 expected and down from 97.7 last month, prompting fears of a double dip for Europe’s largest economy.
Earlier in the session, Asian shares dropped with MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shedding 0.2%. Japan’s Nikkei finished 1% lower, and South Korea’s main index lost 0.7%. Chinese blue chips shed 0.6% as the country’s leaders met to chart the nation’s economic course for 2021-2025, balancing growth with reforms amid an uncertain global outlook and deepening
tensions with the United States.
In rates, as markets increasingly price in the likelihood of a Democratic president and Congress and resulting rise in government spending and borrowing, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest since early June last week at 0.8720%. However, the risk off mood pushed 10Y yields down to 0.81% on Monday. Treasuries outperformed in the early European session, outperforming bunds and gilts as U.S. stock futures eased from Friday’s levels. Yields lower by 0.5bp to 3bp across the curve in a bull-flattening move, tightening 2s10s, 5s30s by 2.1bp and 1bp; 10- year yields around 0.813% outperforming bunds by ~4bp and gilts by 2.5bp. Italian bonds outperform in Europe session after S&P’s outlook revision to stable on Friday: the benchmark 10-year yield dropped 9 basis points to 0.68% and the spread over German bonds tightened to 126 bps.
“We have raised the probability of a Democratic sweep, already our base case, from 40% to just over 50% and have increased our expectation of Biden to win from 65% to 75%,” NatWest Markets analysts said in a note. “We see steeper U.S. yield curves and a weaker USD as likely to prevail in our base case.”
In FX, the standout was the Turkey lira which for the first time ever weakened through 8 per dollar for the first time. The country’s central bank rattled investors last week by unexpectedly keeping rates on hold, and geopolitical risks have sapped interest in Turkish assets.
Elsewhere, surging coronavirus cases sent investors to the safety of the dollar after it fell broadly last week; as a result the dollar rose against most G-10 peers as waning prospects for a near-term U.S. stimulus deal and rising coronavirus infections fueled haven bids. The euro extended its Asia session decline in early European trading, closing in on $1.18; bunds rise on haven demand as coronavirus case surge sends stocks lower. The Canadian dollar and Norway’s krone led the decline among Group-of-10 currencies as oil prices fell. The pound swung between losses and gains on the back of a broadly stronger dollar mixed with positive signals emerging from Brexit negotiations, with the U.K. government indicating optimism about signing a deal. Trade talks between Britain and the European Union will continue in London until the middle of this week.
In commodities, gold was flat just above $1,900. Oil prices extended last week’s losses as the prospect of increased supply and resurgent coronavirus infections worried investors. Brent crude was down 3% at $40.52 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 3.2% to $38.57.
Looking ahead, we find a packed week for monetary policy decisions, Canada’s and Japan’s central banks are expected to hold fire for now, while the market assumes the European Central Bank will sound cautious on inflation and growth even if it skips a further easing. Data due out Thursday is forecast to show a record, consumer-led 31.9% rebound in U.S. economic output in the third quarter, after the second’s quarter’s historic collapse. Analysts at Westpac noted such a bounce would still leave 2020 GDP around 4% below last year’s, with business investment still lagging badly.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 1.1% to 3,415.50
- STOXX Europe 600 down 1.1% to 358.60
- MXAP down 0.3% to 175.62
- MXAPJ down 0.2% to 583.81
- Nikkei down 0.09% to 23,494.34
- Topix down 0.4% to 1,618.98
- Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 24,918.78
- Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,251.12
- Sensex down 1.7% to 39,991.53
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 6,155.63
- Kospi down 0.7% to 2,343.91
- German 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to -0.584%
- Euro down 0.3% to $1.1823
- Italian 10Y yield fell 4.5 bps to 0.555%
- Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.1 bps to 0.164%
- Brent futures down 2.9% to $40.58/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,897.06
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 92.99
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- Rates traders are starting to question the big short position that’s built up in long-maturity Treasuries on the expectation of a Democratic sweep in next month’s U.S. elections. In the market for options on Treasury futures, trades emerged in the past week that wager against a leap in volatility or a major breakout in yields heading into year-end
- German Ifo Institute’s business climate index dropped for the first time in six months, just as coronavirus infections in the country reached new records. The reading of 92.7 in October was lower than the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey, and compares to 93.2 the previous month. A gauge of expectations also deteriorated
- China will impose unspecified sanctions on the defense unit of Boeing Co., Lockheed Martin Corp., and Raytheon Technologies Corp. after the U.S. approved $1.8 billion in arms sales to Taiwan last week. The sanctions will be imposed “in order to uphold national interests,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters Monday in Beijing.
- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she’s waiting for the another counteroffer Monday from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, as she and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows accused each other of “moving the goalposts” in negotiations
- Amy Coney Barrett is on the cusp of confirmation, with the Senate ready to vote Monday night to elevate her to the Supreme Court a week before the presidential election and create a 6-3 conservative majority on the court
- Investors wondering how China plans to evolve its financial markets in the coming years need look no further than the commentary from the weekend’s Bund Summit in Shanghai for guidance. PBOC Governor Yi Gang said that promoting broader use of the yuan will continue alongside the opening of financial markets
- Europe took a step closer to the stringent restrictions imposed during the initial wave of the coronavirus pandemic as leaders struggle regain control of the spread
- Libya is set to restart the last of its major oil fields following a ceasefire in its civil war, a milestone for the OPEC member that’s been largely offline since January
A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk
Asian equity markets began the week lacklustre and US equity futures were pressured with risk appetite subdued by the deteriorating COVID-19 situation in Europe after France and Italy reported record surges in daily infections, which prompted Italy to announce tougher restrictions and Spain also declared a state of emergency, as well as a nationwide curfew. ASX 200 (-0.2%) was initially buoyed by M&A news including an approach by Coca-Cola European Partners to acquire Coca-Cola Amatil which saw shares in the latter surge by more than 15% and Link Administration received a revised takeover proposal, although gains in the index were eventually offset by weakness in the commodity-related sectors and with financials on edge after Westpac flagged a AUD 1.2bln hit to H2 earnings. Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) was indecisive with price action choppy around the 23,500 level amid a mixed currency and the KOSPI (-0.7%) failed to hold onto opening gains in the absence of any significant follow-through to the early nostalgic lift in Samsung Group shares after the death of its Chairman Lee Kun-hee. Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) was the worst performer amid commodity-related weakness, with demand also subdued by the absence of Hong Kong participants due to a holiday closure and tentativeness as China begins its 4-day plenum where policymakers will hammer out details of the next 5-year plan. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded higher as they made their back towards the 152.00 focal point with support provided by the cautious mood and with the BoJ in the market for a total of JPY 920bln of JGBs.
Top Asian News
- Amazon Set For Face-Off With Ambani For India Retail Dominance
- Lira Weakens Past 8 per Dollar as Currency Rout Deepens
- Hyundai Motor Posts Loss on Engine-Problem Costs; Sales Rise
- Australia Joins Global IPO Mania With Best Month in 2020
European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -1.5%) have kicked the week off with heavy losses as the region contends with the deteriorating COVID-19 situation in Europe after France and Italy reported record surges in daily infections, which prompted Italy to announce tougher restrictions whilst Spain declared a state of emergency and a nationwide curfew. The German DAX (-2%) is the laggard in Europe amid losses in SAP (-18.3%) who carry a 10.2% weighting in the index. Losses for the German tech heavyweight followed Q3 earnings in which the Co. reported declines in revenues and operating profits, cut guidance for 2020 and removed its forecast that profitability would expand over the medium-term. As such, the Stoxx 600 tech sector (in which it carries a 24% weighting) is the clear laggard in Europe. Elsewhere from a sectoral standpoint, health care names are bucking the trend and are modestly firmer on the session with AstraZeneca (+1.0%) shares supported by news that its COVID-19 vaccine is said to have triggered protective antibodies and T-cells in the elderly according to early results which offers hope to the most vulnerable. The upside in AstraZeneca, allied with gains in UK banks (Natwest +1.1%, HSBC +0.5%, Lloyds +0.4%, Barclays +0.5%) has helped stem the losses in the FTSE 100 (-0.2%) with support seen for the domestic banking sector in the wake of reports noting that UK regulators are reportedly mulling plans to permit banks to begin paying out dividends again next year. In contrast, in the Eurozone, regulators that were previously in favour of lifting the current ban on dividends are reportedly now more concerned and are looking at dividend caps as a compromise. In terms of M&A activity, Bayer (+0.9%) are to acquire Asklepios Biopharmaceutical for USD 2bln in up-front payments with a potential further USD 2bln in milestone payments. Finally, Rolls Royce (-2.5%) are lower on the session amid source reports in The Times suggesting that major investors in the Co. will only put their support behind its emergency fundraising bid if a massive overhaul of the “sprawling” business is undertaken.
Top European News
- Italy’s Bonds Surge After S&P Holds Off From Downgrading NationEuropean Stocks Fall as SAP Leads DAX Down After Cutting Outlook
In FX, the Dollar is back on a firmer footing and in demand as a safe-haven even though the US is far from immune to the 2nd pandemic waves sweeping through many countries and the upcoming election poses uncertainty alongside the ongoing stimulus stalemate. However, aversion is taking a toll on the more cyclical, activity and commodity currencies, with the DXY revisiting 93.000+ territory within 93.069-92.784 parameters as a result ahead of the national activity index, new home sales data and the Dallas Fed manufacturing business survey.
- CAD/NOK/EUR/CHF – Another retreat in crude prices and the more severe coronavirus resurgence in Spain, Italy, France and Germany to name just a few Eurozone member states, is weighing on the Loonie, Norwegian Krona and Euro in particular. As such, Usd/Cad has rebounded further from recent lows towards 1.3200 in the run up to Canada’s by-elections, Eur/Nok has retested 11.0000+ resistance and Eur/Usd has retreated from 1.1850+ through decent option expiry interest between 1.1840-35 (1 bn). Note also, Ifo metrics were softer than expected to keep the single currency pressured, while the Franc will have noted a rise in Swiss bank sight deposits as it straddles 0.9050 again.
- JPY/GBP/AUD – Also weaker vs the Greenback as the Yen trades at the lower end of a 104.97-66 band, Sterling recoils from 1.3060+ to probe support around 1.3000 in the form of the 50 DMA (1.3012) and 10 DMA (1.2996), and Aussie wanes from just shy of 0.7150 despite Australia looking to lift more of its anti-COVID measures intime for Xmas.
- NZD – The relative G10 outperformer, albeit largely due to cross flows than anything NZ specific, as the Kiwi pivots 1.0650 against its Antipodean counterpart and hovers just below 0.6700 vs its rival awaiting trade data for some independent direction.
- EM – Broad losses due to the downturn in risk appetite impacting oil and other commodities, but with Lira losses exacerbated by heightened diplomatic tensions as Usd/Try finally clears the 8.0000 level that was being defended. Ahead, CBRT minutes and the latest inflation report may explain why the Bank opted to shock markets and stand pat last Thursday, while an improvement in manufacturing confidence has hardly helped the worsening mood with the pair elevated between 8.0658-7.9628 extremes.
In commodities, WTI and Brent futures are subdued this morning following the substantial losses seen in the equity space alongside poor earnings from European heavyweight SAP (see equity section). At present, WTI and Brent are lower by just shy of USD 1.0/bbl but similarly to the equity space have lifted off lows most recently with a number of factors in play for the crude complex this morning. On the demand side, the rising COVID-19 cases and new restrictions implemented in areas such as Italy and France have served to bring existing concerns back to the forefront; while updates from Lufthansa that additional craft are to be grounded for the Winter period will be an area of concern. Moving to the supply side where factors are both supporting and hindering the crude complex; firstly, Tropical Storm Zeta is expected to become a Hurricane later on today and has already prompted BP to commence shut-in procedures within the Gulf of Mexico. However, updates out of Libya indicate that the force majeures on all ports and fields have now been lifted after El Feel field reopened this morning following such action for the Ran Lanuf and Es Sider ports on the weekend. As such, the NOC believes production will surpass the 1mln BPD mark in around 4-weeks’ time. Moving to metals, spot gold is essentially flat on the day but has been attempting to move higher throughout the morning given the general risk-tone. However, any potential shine for the metal has been halted by the USD’s upside which has seen the DXY eclipse 93.00. Elsewhere, steel output for the year from China is forecast to eclipse 1bln/T which would be a 3-5% YY increase according to the CISA industry association. An increase which is explained by increased consumption globally as well as support domestic gov’t policies for China’s steel industry.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.6, prior 0.8
- 10am: New Home Sales, est. 1.02m, prior 1.01m; New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.34%, prior 4.8%
- 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 13.3, prior 13.6
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
We’re into the business end of the US Election now with tomorrow marking the one week countdown to Election Day. Over the weekend there hasn’t been much of a shift in the polling averages with the main polling sites still showing a fairly consistent lead for Biden with the FiveThirtyEight average at 9.2pts and the RealClearPolitics average at 8.0pts. The same goes for the Senate race where FiveThirtyEight give the Democrats a 73% chance of winning control. Expect the market to remain fixated on these polls as the days tick down from here however.
It’ll be hard to knock the spotlight too far from Congress this week too with the daily stimulus deal headlines unlikely to show any sign of tiring just yet. The weekend has seen both sides trade barbs – Pelosi and Meadows accusing each other of “moving the goalposts” in interviews yesterday – with time as good as up for a pre-election deal. Pelosi did hint at a pandemic relief plan this week however our US economists think the odds of a much larger deal with the White House before year end are fairly slim with the start of next year a more realistic timeframe. On that, at the back end of last week the team published a detailed report looking at what fiscal prospects mean for the US economic outlook next, with unsurprisingly a Democratic clean sweep providing the most upside. See the full report here.
In other news, the latest on the virus includes the US reaching a record number of daily cases at just over 85k over the weekend, including Marc Short, US Vice President Pence’s chief of staff. While that raises the risk of the virus spreading to the Vice President’s inner circle, Pence has been confirmed negative and will continue to campaign this week. In Europe we’ve seen Italy introduce the strongest virus restrictions since the end of a national lockdown in May as the country reported a daily record of cases while Spain approved a new national curfew. France also reported a record number of infections at over 52k yesterday with the positive test rate increasing to 17% from 16%. On the vaccine front there was good news as the FT reported that AstraZeneca’s vaccine candidate produced a robust immune response in elderly people while J&J said that first batches of its vaccine could be available for emergency use as soon as January. J&J is set to resume its US trials after they had been paused earlier due to safety concerns.
In terms of markets this morning, the latest virus news and stimulus headlines has seen S&P 500 futures trade down -0.59%. Asian bourses have also started the week on the back foot with the Nikkei (-0.12%), Shanghai Comp (-0.72%), Kopsi (-0.42%) and ASX (-0.13%) all down. Hong Kong markets are closed for a holiday. In keeping with the risk off, the US dollar index is up +0.16% overnight while yields on 10y USTs are down -2.7bps. Elsewhere, oil is down just under -2%.
In other weekend news, the latest on Brexit is that EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier will remain in London for discussions through October 28 according to Bloomberg after the UK government indicated optimism about signing a deal. Elsewhere, China is rethinking its yuan internationalization strategy and a senior central bank official called for more proactive approach with policies to support markets, including improving bilateral currency swap agreements.
Looking ahead to the rest of this week, the other highlights include the ECB and BoJ meetings on Thursday. With regards to the former, while our European economists expect the policy stance to be left unchanged, they do expect the ECB to warn of growing downside risks amid an already weak outlook for inflation, which will open the door to an easing of policy in December. By then, there’ll be more information on the status of the pandemic, and the ECB staff will have updated their macroeconomic projections, including the publication of the first estimates for growth and inflation for 2023. See our economists’ full preview here. For the BoJ, our economists also expect no policy stance change in light of the slow-but steady economic recovery and stable exchange rate.
Elsewhere, datawise next week we’ll get a first look at Q3 GDP in the US and Europe and given the record contractions seen in Q2, it’s quite possible that the Q3 numbers will be among the best ever quarterly performances since records began. Our US economists forecast an eye watering +33.8% as an example which, if realised, would be by far the strongest quarterly growth number since comparative data starts back in the 1940s. Clearly a lot of this is a mechanical bounceback from the shutdowns and it’s worth reminding that economic activity is still expected to remain well below its pre-Covid peak for some time. Finally, if that wasn’t enough, it’s another big week for earnings too with 184 S&P 500 companies and 94 STOXX 600 companies reporting. The former includes tech heavyweights like Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Alphabet.
Quickly recapping last week now, and politics on either side of the Atlantic remained in focus, particularly the US election. Expectations of fiscal stimulus in the US and moderately improving economic data helped 10-year yields rise globally. US equities pulled back slightly even as the rise in rates helped cyclical industries, especially banks (+3.17%). The S&P 500 fell back -0.53% (+0.34% Friday) as technology stocks lagged and the NASDAQ declined a greater -1.06% (+0.37% Friday). It was the S&P 500’s first weekly decline since September. Equities in Europe generally underperformed as countries are seeing rising coronavirus caseloads and restrictions are being enacted across the continent. The Stoxx 600 ended the week -1.36% lower (+0.62% Friday), with the DAX (-2.04%) falling back further.
Again the story was the sharp rise in sovereign bond yields as growth prospects improved. US 10yr Treasury yields rose +9.7bps (-1.3bps Friday) to finish at 0.843%. It was the largest one week rise in US rates since mid-August and they now sit just below the local highs of June. The US 2-year-10-year yield curve steepened +8.5bps to its steepest weekly level since February of 2018. 10yr Gilt yields rose by +9.8bps (-0.4bps Friday) to 0.28%, while 10yr Bund yields were up +4.8bps (-0.8bps Friday) to -0.57%. Peripheral sovereign debt yields rose as well with Italian (+10.7bps), Spanish (+7.1bps), Portuguese (+6.0bps) and Greek (+13.7bps) 10yr bond yields all significantly.
In terms of data released on Friday, the highlight was the flash PMIs from around the globe. The euro zone flash October PMIs were stronger than expected. Euro Area manufacturing PMIs came in at 54.4 (vs. 53.0 expected) while services, at 46.2, missed (vs. 47.0 expected). Germany manufacturing was 58.0, 3.0 points above expectations on a recovering export business. France saw a sharper decline as the flash services reading of 46.5, down one point from September and the lowest reading in five months. In the US, the Markit PMIs came in largely in line with expectations – with manufacturing at 53.3 (vs. 53.5 expected) and services a touch stronger at 56.0 (vs. 54.6 expected).
3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT:
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.88 PTS OR 0.82% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 132.65 PTS OR .54% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 22.25 POINTS OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.26%
/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil DOWN TO 39.04 dollars per barrel for WTI and 40.92 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7010. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6975 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19 : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP RAISED RATES TO 25%
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA
South Korea
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 C CHINA
CHINA/COVID 19
China not out of the woods yet as they scramble to suppress its biggest COVID 19 outbreak in months
(zerohedge)
Chinese Authorities Scramble To Suppress Biggest COVID-19 Outbreak In Months
Chinese authorities are scrambling to suppress yet another outbreak in far-flung Xinjiang after a 17-year-old garment factory worker tested positive.
Health authorities reported 137 new cases on Sunday, all of which were confirmed in Xinjiang Province, making this by far the largest new outbreak since the Spring. In keeping with Beijing’s prescribed “wartime posture” approach, authorities last night launched a mass-testing campaign to try and test all 4.75 million residents in and around the city of Kashgar. A couple of weeks ago, authorities pulled off a similarly massive testing drive in Qingdao, a city in the eastern Shangdong Province.
Thanks to sweeping smartphone-based mass surveillance/case-tracking, scapegoating and outright suppression of case numbers and deaths, China has managed to drive COVID-19 case numbers to almost zero. In Wuhan, locals travel to bars and concerts, sometimes, taking rapid COVID-19 tests, with their infection status logged on their smartphones in a way that can be examined by bouncers at the door.
To further confuse the international community, along with the Chinese public, China’s national health authorities have divided case classifications into imported vs. domestic and asymptomatic vs symptomatic.
Here’s how the ‘official’ tally of cases has evolved in recent weeks.
The new cases, all classified as asymptomatic, were linked to a factory in Shufu county where the 17-year-old girl and her parents worked, according to the Xinjiang health commission, which held a press briefing on Sunday following an exhaustive investigation of the source of the outbreak by Beijing’s NHC.
As of Sunday afternoon more than 2.8 million samples had been collected in the area and the rest would be completed within two days, the city government said in a statement.
Kashgar, near the country’s borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, is the cultural home of China’s Turkic Muslim ethnic Uighurs, a group that the CCP has relentlessly pressed into reeducation camps and concentration camps to force them to accept the country’s governing Communist ideology.The crackdown as provoked international outbreak, and a barrage of sanctions imposed by the US on officials and companies involved with the mass-detention program.
end
CHINA/USA
Beijing slaps sanctions on Raytheon and Lockheed in retaliation for Taiwan arms sales last month
(zerohedge)
Beijing Slaps Sanctions On Raytheon, Lockheed & Boeing In Retaliation For Taiwan Arms Sales
As President Trump and VP Mike Pence (recent COVID-19 infections be damned) fan out across the country for a last-minute pre-Election Day push to get out the vote, Beijing is adding to its long-promised retaliation for TikTok, Hong Kong, the Xinjiang sanctions, all President Trump’s COVID-19-related China bashing and – most importantly – Taiwan.
After Beijing sanctioned Lockheed Martin over its involvement in “Torpedoes for Taiwan”, the CCP is following up with more economic attacks on American defense contractors, guaranteeing that the Chinese response, and its attendant economic impact, will be elevated to an important talking point and – more importantly – another risk factor for already-uneasy markets, struggling to digest the political uncertainty combined with new record numbers of COVID-19 cases in the US and Europe.
According to Reuters, Beijing has decided to impose sanctions on Boeing’s defense unit, Raytheon and (again) Lockheed. The news was announced by Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian. He didn’t elaborate on what the sanctions will entail.
The sanctions come as the State Department approves the sale of three weapons systems to Taiwan, including sensors, missiles and artillery worth some $1.8 billion as the Trump Administration throws caution to the wind and goes all-in on beefing up Taiwan’s defense capabilities, even as Beijing adopts increasingly belligerent rhetoric about the “red line” that is Taiwan.
“To safeguard our national interests, China decided to take necessary measures and levy sanctions on U.S. companies such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing Defence, and Raytheon, and those individuals and companies who behaved badly in the process of the arms sales,” he said.”
Though it’s not the “just war” China has promised, it’s possible that US equities could take a hit if we hear more concrete details from the Chinese. Markets wobbled after China announced its last round of sanctions against Lockheed, though whatever Beijing did, it doesn’t look like it had much immediate impact on Lockheed’s bottom line, according to its latest earnings report, released roughly a week ago.
CHINA/USA
The war between China and the uSA escalates as Beijing demands information on finances and on staff members
(zerohedge)
Beijing Demands Info On Finances, Staff From 6 American Media Outlets Operating In China
Beijing is following up its announcement of impending sanctions to be levied against a trio of American defense contractors by ordering six American media companies to deliver detailed information about their finances, staff and other details.
The urgent demand – which gives the media companies a week to comply – follows another tit-for-tat attempt by Washington to crack down on Chinese media by labeling six entities as “foreign missions”, which could create problems for their employees working from the US.
This isn’t the first attack on American journalists. Back in March, the CCP kicked out all the most critical western journos from the NYT, WSJ and Washington Post, plus others.
However, some of the media orgs being targeted by Beijing have never been targeted before. Overall, the list includes mostly liberal-leaning outlets. ABC, LATimes, Minnesota Public Radio, Bureau of National Affairs, Newsweek and Feature Story News.
Ironically, all of these outlets typically promote a media narrative at odds – sometimes even directly hostile to – President Trump’s agenda.
Readers can find the full statement below.
Beijing’s Foreign Ministry claimed the decision was “entirely necessary” in retaliation for the Trump Administration’s latest effort.
The Foreign Ministry immediately called on Washington to “immediately change course, undo the damage, and stop its political oppression and arbitrary restrictions on Chinese media organizations” or face additional countermeasures.
end
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/ITALY/THE GLOBE/SATURDAY
Italy Plans Return To Partial Lockdown As Cases Hit Fresh Record: Live Updates
Summary:
- Italy release draft plan for return to semi-lockdown
- US tops 80k cases for first time
- Global daily cases top 500k
- New record reported in Portugal
- Austria sees record new cases for 4th day
- Brussels imposes new restrictions for 14 days
- Spain, Italy weighing stricter measures to fight outbreak
* * *
Update (1530ET): Italy’s PM has apparently leaked a draft of the new partial lockdown that’s expected to be implemented on Sunday, while Italy reported record new daily coronavirus cases of 19,644, roughly equal to yesterday.
According to the draft decree, the Italian government will impose closures and strict curfews, with most restaurants and nonessential businesses set to close at 1800 local time.
According to JHU, the five worst-hit countries in the world right now are all in Europe: the Czech Republic, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland and France. All five have seen the number of new cases surge since the beginning of October.
* * *
The US smashed its previous daily record on Friday when it reported 83,304 new cases, exceeding its prior July 29 peak with just 2 weeks to go before election day.
The new cases brought the US tally to 8,499,132 since the start of the pandemic, while another 945 new deaths reported on Friday once again swung the 7-day average for fatalities in the US to its highest level in at least a month. It brought the US death toll to 224,058, as hospitalizations across the US reach their highest levels in months, as we noted last night.
Globally, cases exceeded 42.3 million and deaths exceeded 1.1. million, as the number of new cases reported globally topped 500,000 for the first time yesterday, driven by rising case numbers in the US, Europe and Russia.
While an outbreak across the Midwest and Mountain West has seen states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan and Montana report multiple record numbers within the span of a week as their total new confirmed cases climbed to record highs, states across Europe have suffered rising hospitalizations, cases, positivity rates and deaths.
As cases have risen, positivity rates have continued to climb across the US.
In Central Europe, Austria reported record new case numbers on Saturday for the fourth day in a row. Slovenia reported a record 1,963 new cases with an all-time high positivity rate of 27.9%. Another 19 deaths, a record for the tiny Alpine state with a population of 2.1 million, were reported, bringing the total death toll to 235. Poland also suffered its deadliest day yet, with 179 deaths, and 13,628 new cases.
In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel said the pandemic has worsened as a growing number of regional health authorities are struggling to track infections, Merkel said. “We’re not powerless against the virus,” she said. “Our behavior decides how strong and how fast it spreads.”
Of course, a growing body of evidence suggests that the worse an outbreak gets, the harder it is to trace contacts.
In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is reportedly holding an extraordinary cabinet meeting on Sunday to declare a national “state of alarm”. The Italian government is also expected to approve new COVID-19 restrictions on Sunday as new cases topped 19k on Friday, the highest number yet.
Source: Bloomberg
Brussels and the five Walloon provinces have 14-day incidence rates that are 2x those of the Flemish provinces in the north of Belgium, ranging from 1,262 per 100,000 in Luxembourg to 2,100 per 100,000 in Liege.
Portugal on Saturday reported yet another record, with 3,669 new cases in a day, more than the prior record of 3,270 reported on Thursday. The new cases took Portugal’s total to 116,109. The number of patients in the ICU rose by 23 to 221, still below the peak of 271 ICU patients from April.
END
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/MONDAY
Average New US COVID-19 Cases Hits New Record As Hospitals Run Out Of Space: Live Updates
Summary:
- US sees 7-day average for cases hit new record
- Hospitals across US near capacity
- Utah hospitals ask Gov to approve new triage plan
- French official warns France seeing 100k new cases per day
- Malaysia extends lockdown
- Hong Kong focuses COVID efforts on public transit
- UK approves new rapid test
- AstraZeneca trial data shows vaccine effective on elderly
* * *
New COVID-19 cases declined on Sunday following the Friday-Saturday peak both in the US, and globally. With the US adding roughly 61,000 new cases (according to JHU), bringing the US total to 8,637,108. Globally, the world broke above 43 million confirmed COVID-19 cases, with roughly 377,000 new cases reported yesterday alone.
However, the US average of new COVID-19 cases is now at its highest point since the start of the pandemic, as the US added more than 480,000 new cases (481,372 per JHU) after Friday and Saturday both saw new cases top 80k.
Currently, there are more than 41,000 COVID patients hospitalized in the United States, a 40% rise in the past month, and unlike during the first wave, which hammered urban areas, the second wave is spreading out to more smaller towns with fewer resources, which can translate to less effective care. In Kansas City earlier this month, ambulances were reportedly turned away from hospitals that ran out of room. Field hospitals are currently opening in Salt Lake City and Milwaukee.
In Utah, hospitals are preparing to start rationing care as patients flood its ICUs. That’s reportedly the prediction of a top hospital association official, who has reportedly conveyed his warning to Utah Gov. Gary Herbert. The new criteria, which would require the state’s approval, creates a new triage program for doctors to decide who can stay in the ICU, and who will be sent back to a regular bed, per the Salt Lake Tribune.
Perhaps the biggest news overnight was the first trickle of Phase 3 trial data from AstraZeneca, a leak that seemed suspiciously well-timed, coming just days after US regulators finally gave the vaccine being developing in partnership with Oxford the green light to restart its US trials. The report should be taken with a large grain of salt; none of this is tantamount to conclusive evidence that the candidate will provide lasting immunity.
In Asia, news broke on Sunday that China had discovered its largest outbreak in months in the far-flung province of Xinjiang. One day later, authorities are reporting another 26 asymptomatic cases.
China’s Xinjiang province reported 26 new asymptomatic coronavirus infections between 1600 Sunday and 1600 Monday in Kashgar prefecture, China Central Television reported.
In other news, SCMP reports that Malaysia has just extended its partial lockdown in Kuala Lumpur, its capital city, as well as the surrounding state of Selangor, from two weeks to four.
Jean-Francois Delfraissy, the chair of the scientific team advising French President Emmanuel Macron, warned that the country is probably seeing roughly 100,000 new cases a day (more than 2x the current rate) as the coronavirus pandemic steers the nation into a “very difficult, or even critical situation.” He added that “this second wave will definitely be stronger than the first.” For context, France reported its 4th consecutive daily record of new cases on Sunday.
In the UK, pharmacy chain Boots is set to launch a 12-minute COVID-19 swab test in some of its stores, while it has begun to offer private pre-flight testing for those traveling abroad.
Here’s some more COVID-19 news from Monday morning and overnight:
South Korea reported an uptick in new coronavirus cases despite a lower number of tests, over the weekend, as a cluster of infections in nursing homes in the greater Seoul area emerged. The country added 119 more cases, increasing the total caseload to 25,955, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (Source: FT).
Hong Kong will focus its testing efforts on taxi and bus drivers over the next fortnight, as it seeks to control the coronavirus pandemic (Source: FT).
WHO director general Dr. Tedros said some countries in the northern hemisphere are facing a “dangerous moment” after US infections hit a record for the second day (Newswires).
Australia’s state of Victoria, the country’s new coronavirus hot spot, reports zero cases for the first time since June (Source: Reuters).
Italy/Covid 19
Italians are rising up against the “Health dictatorship” as the country moves toward a new lockdown
(zerohedge)
Italians Rise Up Against “Health Dictatorship” As Country Moves Toward New Lockdown
Earlier this year Italy became the first entire nation to impose strict lockdown and social distancing measures when it was the first to see a major coronavirus outbreak outside of Wuhan, China.
By the close of May, just as the United States took the lead globally in number of confirmed cases, Italy’s numbers had fallen and lockdown restrictions were dropped, with its daily infection rate remaining under control through summer. However, Italy’s case numbers began soaring once again starting September into this month.
Over the weekend the country saw a new record daily high.
Reuters reports that “COVID-19 cases across the country have risen seven-fold since the start of the month, jumping to 19,143 on Friday and raising fears that the pandemic is spiraling out of control.”
Local media dubbed weekend clashes with police in Naples a appearing more like guerilla warfare.
Naturally government leaders are once again eyeing a total lockdown of the peninsula, but it’s evident many Italians aren’t having it. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has just issued a new emergency decree Sunday which once again shutters all cinemas, theatres, gyms and swimming pools. And further bars and restaurants have been ordered to close by 6pm every night.
This set off major protests across various cities, especially in Rome and Naples, which led to clashes with police over the weekend. Initially peaceful, local media have described many demonstrations rapidly spiraled into fights with police led by hundreds or far-right protesters.
In Rome fireworks were shot at police trying to disperse a central plaza.
The mayhem is believed to have been led by the right wing Fuerza Nova party which called for the population to resist what it called “health dictatorship and curfews”.
Meanwhile Italy’s southern Campania region has moved to implement a total lockdown of the province, with its leaders urging the rest of the country to follow suit, according to Reuters.
Likely anti-lockdown marches and protests will only grow – a trend witnessed in other countries that have attempted to reimpose lockdowns after long adapting to a ‘new normal’ of common sense social distancing measures.
The More The EU Tightens Its Grip, The More Countries Slip Through Its Fingers
Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,
It finally looks like the four-and-a-half-year saga of Brexit is coming to an ignominious end. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called the final bluff of the incompetent bureaucrats in Brussels, walking away from trade talks while leaving the door open.
But that door is only open if the EU is willing to crawl in on its knees and give the UK what it wants, a minimal free trade deal, Canada-style, which was offered by then President of the European Council Donald Tusk.
The EU played hardball giving zero ground for four years while undermining the UK from within its own political and bureaucratic structures. It was as transparent as it was cynical, but it couldn’t sway the British people and that gave Johnson the political will to just say no.
And it was this hardball negotiating stance that had worked in the past finally broke like waves along the Cliffs of Dover. The reason why it failed was that arrogance was fueled by powerful forces having their back,
They believed in the power of coercion being stronger than the will of the British people.
And they were wrong. Dead wrong.
In an instant this past weekend the entire façade of the EU’s inevitability vaporized as Johnson went on TV and told the world to prepare for a No-Deal Brexit, regardless of whether that was the optimal outcome or not.
It signaled to the rest of Europe that no longer do you have to take the diktats of a bunch of feckless, unelected technocrats if you don’t want to. And this failure to secure submission of the Brits will have immense consequences during this next election cycle in Europe.
This is why the fiction of the Second Wave of the Coronapocalypse persists all across the continent. Germany, France, Spain and other countries are implementing the worst kind of draconian lockdowns on people hanging on by a thread while the pols in Brussels scheme as to how best to continue advancing their plans for a future with the people trapped in the neo-feudalism of the EU corporatocracy.
These lockdowns have nothing to do with public health. They have everything to do with maintaining the political health of the current ruling classes. Nothing more.
And I include the UK in this as well but for different reasons. It’s my feeling that even though Johnson may have given the EU ‘two fingers up’ the EU and those behind it aren’t done with the Brits yet.
Walking away from narcissists inevitably invokes anger. There is too much at stake for the European Project for the annoying Brits to just walk away from it and give everyone else the wrong idea.
So, I feel very strongly we should be watching for more signs of the same color revolution tactics on display in the U.S. to depose Donald Trump showing up in the UK. I don’t rule out an attempted coup against Johnson in the next seven weeks.
This is why I think he’s imposing similar lock downs in the UK to manage the inevitable activation of ‘ground forces’ once things get down to the wire later this year.
Brexit has exposed a myriad of fault lines within the EU, most notably between the two heavyweights, Germany and France. And Johnson, for all his shambolic organization, understood this perfectly, playing Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron off each other capturing their agendas in amber so when crunch-time came, they were paralyzed with inaction.
Weasels on both sides of the channel refused to accept the vote for any number of reasons but it didn’t matter.
The UK always had the upper hand in this situation if it stood its ground, made its demands known and negotiated like an equal rather than a wayward child.
Ever the abusive parent, the EU Council and its Chief Negotiator continue to treat the Brits like they treated Greece in 2015 and are now openly furious that no one is taking them seriously.
But why should anyone take Brussels seriously, other than because it is backed by the failing and sclerotic post-WWII institutions revealed to be complicit in the wholesale destruction of Western culture and economic vitality who are pushing a Great Reset on them whether they want it or not?
One need look no further than the insipid way Merkel has handled the obvious intelligence job surrounding Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny. Navalny is a nobody outside the halls of the CIA and MI-6 who, through the media, sell him to the West as a major thorn in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s side.
But he’s nothing of the sort. He has fewer people show up to his ‘rallies’ now than Joe Biden. So, the idea that Putin would poison this bozo is laughable. And yet, because the EU, and specifically Germany, are so scared of angering the U.S. they entertained this fantasy hoping the Russians would bail them out and play along with the fiction, publicly threatening the completion of the Nordstream 2 pipeline over it.
Putin told Merkel to go scratch, and why not? She’ll be out of the picture in a year.
So, now she has personally lost Russia as a potential ally for Germany. Instead of finally choosing a side, Merkel, ever the dutiful soldier, kept playing the U.S. and Russia off each other alienating both.
Merkel ham-fistedly played for time hoping to run out the clock on Trump and Johnson both over the U.S. election and it will cost Germany everything in the long run. She has a chance post-election to make things right with Putin but don’t bet on it.
Once she loses Russia, she’ll lose the Visegrad nations as the U.S. abandons Europe and the 21st century will turn most unkind on a hubristic and vainglorious European elite.
If the EU leadership want to be taken seriously then they need to act like world leaders and not like a bunch of vindictive high schoolers vying for class president. That these incompetent people are leading some of the most powerful countries in the world should frighten you.
They also reflect very poorly on the people who stand behind them, who I like to call The Davos Crowd, whose policies they were chosen to implement.
And now that the best of all possible Brexits is near at hand, the rest of Europe is going to get an object lesson in just how much it costs to keep them around as the UK thrives in the post-Brexit world and why they shouldn’t be afraid of the EU’s wrath.
Rabobank: “A Dangerous Moment”
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The markets have started a new week of trading in risk off mode (when this note was heading to press) amid fading expectations that the US Congress will pass another fiscal package. With just 8 days left until the presidential election, both sides may not have a sufficient incentive to reach an agreement. Even if there is no deal in the coming days, a fiscal stimulus is still likely to be agreed after the election to support businesses and households as the US is struggling to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In fact, President Trump’s chief of staff openly admitted that the US is “not going to control” the pandemic and instead will focus on “proper mitigation factors”, such as vaccines and treatments. Former Vice President Biden strongly criticized the Trump administration saying that “they’ve given up on their basic duty to protect the American people.” The US recorded a record daily number of new cases of 85,000.
Meanwhile, the WHO has warned that some countries in the northern hemisphere are facing a “dangerous moment.” This assessment applies to a number of EU countries, where political leaders are trying to protect their citizens by using various restrictions to flatten the coronavirus curve. Spain declared a state of emergency and imposed a curfew. Italy has tightened restrictions as well after new infections rose to a record high of 21,273 on Sunday. France reported record new infections for the fourth consecutive day. Last week the French government announced an extension of the curfew to 54 départements, covering some 2/3 of the country.
While these restrictions are not yet as tight as in spring, the latest set of data has already revealed that the pace of economic recovery in services has started to lose momentum. The Eurozone services PMI plunged to 46.2 from 48 on the back of various social distancing restrictions imposed across the continent to regain control over the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI edged higher from 53.7 to 54.4 in October driven by demand from abroad, particularly Asia, where countries seem to have adapted to the virus and have learnt to live with it. Looking at specific countries in the Eurozone, France’s manufacturing PMI slipped 0.2 points to 51, whilst the services PMI fell further below the boom-bust mark, to 46.5 from 47.5 in September. Commenting on the data Elwin de Groot said that this development is not a surprise of course now that France and many other countries are once again installing measures to contain/slow down the spread of the virus.
In Germany a similar picture is playing out with manufacturing activity actually recovering further in October. This appears to be related to stronger overseas demand – such as from China – and the recovering auto sector. However, the services PMI fell below the 50-mark (to 48.9 from 50.6). Elwin argues that this is only ‘the beginning’ and weakness in activity is likely to extend into the final months of this year. Despite the ‘technical rebound’ since May (which should show up as a strong growth number for Q3), a negative growth number for Q4 (and as such a double dip) is becoming increasingly likely. The key risk now is that the negative demand-shock (which was effectively attenuated by the government support measures in the first wave) will now gain momentum, in the form of a rising number of defaults among smaller businesses and rising unemployment, according to Elwin. This is the constellation in which the ECB meeting will take place on Thursday.
In the UK (still technically part of the EU) the pace of growth slowed to the weakest since the post-lockdown recovery started. The recovery in domestic demand is stalling as the labour market deteriorates and sentiment sours, Stefan Koopman commented. It is also worth noting that GfK consumer sentiment fell by the most since the start of March’s lockdown. On a more positive note, the Brexit rumour mill has slowed markedly over the past couple of days. This typically means that, behind closed doors, there’s some rational thinking and talking going on. At the same time, there’s good reason for prime minister Johnson to await the outcome of the US elections, so we wouldn’t get our hopes up about a deal already being announced this week.
Elsewhere in the EU, the Czech government has imposed a partial lockdown of the economy to regain control over the raging coronavirus. Speaking this morning PM Babis said that more virus curbs could be announced today. In Poland, the government may allegedly opt for a full-lockdown if the pace of infections does not slow down by the end of this week. While the hospitality sector will be among the worst impacted due to severe restrictions across the CEE region, rising concerns about health may weigh on private consumption and spill over to other sectors. A bleak winter is ahead of the CEE countries. Instead of a V-shaped recovery from the sharp contraction in Q2, the CEEs are moving into a W-shaped or even a U-shaped recovery depending on the damage the second wave of the pandemic will cause to confidence among households and corporates. We prefer to focus on higher levels in EUR/CEEs in the coming weeks as outlined most recently here.
The Turkish lira remains the worst performing EM currency so far this month. USD/TRY has reached another milestone breaching the 8.00 level this morning. Over the weekend President Erdogan reportedly dared the US to impose economic sanctions on Turkey. “Whatever your sanctions are, don’t hesitate to apply them”, the Turkish president reportedly said. “You told us to send back the S-400s. We are not a tribal state, we are Turkey.” The market is seriously concerned that if former VP Biden wins on November 3, the US will penalise Turkey for purchasing the Russian S-400 air defense system. It is also worth recalling that the CBRT left the market deeply disappointed by keeping the 1-week repo rate unchanged last week. We discussed this in details here, but in short the CBRT may have miscalculated market’s tolerance for conducting an unorthodox policy based on using an interest corridor to manage liquidity. The CBRT may seriously consider an emergency rate hike to stem the lira’s rout, especially if on this occasion opinion polls prove to be correct and Biden wins.
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
Erdogan Calls On Turks To Boycott French Goods Over ‘Macron’s Anti-Islam’; Lira Continues Implosion
The latest France-Turkey fast deteriorating diplomatic spat has gone from bad to worse, after on Saturday France recalled its ambassador following President Erdogan’s insulting remarks targeting Macron, which also riled EU leaders. But on Sunday Erdogan repeated the words, “Macron needs to get himself checked out” – suggesting the French leader has mental problems due to remarks which blamed “Islamist terrorism” in the wake of the horrific beheading of a middle school teacher on October 16 by a young Chechen refugee angry the teacher had shown cartoon images of Muhammad.
On Monday Erdogan escalated dramatically, calling for a Turkish boycott of all French goods over what he called France’s ‘anti-Islamic’ stance towards Muslims and the Turkish people. The call for a boycott of France plunged the lira to a new all time low of 8.0750, while Turkish stocks sink.
Erdogan said during a televised speech in Ankara:
“As it has been said in France, ‘don’t buy Turkish-labelled goods’, I call on my people here. Never give credit to French-labelled goods, don’t buy them.”
This could create a broader ripple effect and new tensions for France among a number of Middle East countries as “calls for boycott also erupted over the Middle East, with some outlets in Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar removing made-in-France items from their stalls, and protests erupting in several countries,” according to Israeli media.
At the same time Macron has emphasized a freedom of speech message over the teacher Samuel Paty’s slaying, vowing that the French “not give up our cartoons”.
Erdogan’s fiery speech in reaction further emphasized Macron’s supposed ‘anti-Islamic’ stance.
The whole episode has brought back with ferocity the national debate over free speech versus political correctness and “sensitivity” to the beliefs of Islamic hardliners, as especially seen with some recent public displays in France inspired of the January 7, 2015 Charlie Hebdo massacre.
Statements are now coming in from other leaders of Muslim majority countries, which could be a bad sign for France:
Meanwhile Pakistani PM Imran Khan accused him of ‘attacking Islam’ while summoning the French ambassador to explain himself.
Boycotts of French goods are also underway in supermarkets in Qatar and Kuwait, with further calls to spurn French products in Jordan and other states.
On Monday, the head of France’s MEDEF employers’ federation said the boycott, which he described as ‘foolishness’, was clearly bad news for companies already hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
However, the MEDEF chief Geoffroy Roux de Bezieux still said: “But there is no question of giving in to blackmail,” and he added that “It is a question of sticking to our republican values.”
6.Global Issues
Blain: The Election, The Pandemic, & Brexit Are All Distractions
Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,
“All that glitters is not gold.. ”
What’s the recipe for this week then? All eyes will be focused on the US: What are the polls telling us? How right/wrong are the odds? What are individual states hinting at? Will Trump lose the plebicite in terms of a couple of million votes, but still hold on the presidency via the maths of the electoral college? Who will control the senate? If Trump loses will he go quietly? And then you get to the interesting stuff – what’s likely to happen to the US economy? Taxed into oblivion by a new Biden presidency, take off on new or renewed leadership, or carry on as before down the road to nowhere?
One interesting thing has been the failure to agree a new stimulus package – “moving goal-posts” apparently.. Surprisingly, in the absence of more government largesse, the Economy has not collapsed and markets have not cratered. Is that because the markets think a new package is nailed on post-vote? Worth thinking about perhaps… it could be new year!
Plenty of other stuff to think about… Back on Planet Earth the madness continues…
You can’t buy books or clothes in Welsh Supermarkets – the happiness police say these are non-essential items. I suppose it will stop shoppers lingering in stores thus marginally cutting infection rates. Some government idiot added the bans make it fair on other retail stores that have been forced to close completely. Jeff Bezos will be clapping his hands in ecstasy as another win is handed to Amazon and high streets are consigned to the dustbin of history.
It’s become increasingly clear the UK is turning anti-Covid. Objections to petty and confusing lockdown rules are multiplying. There is a growing sense of outrage at the petty callousness of the authorities splitting families and the horror of patients dying alone. A compelling series of articles by the Sunday Times Insight Team told us what we all suspected: the protect itself the NHS stopped doing its’ job – around the country thousands of elderly Covid sufferers were “triaged”, given limited treatment and allowed to die even as ICU wards had places. The much-lauded Nightingale hospitals sit unused and un-staffable. GP (local doctors) were apparently instructed to draw up lists of frail, infirm and elderly patients who would not be prioritised – many of them refused.
There will be a political reckoning…
As pandemic infections rise, Spain has declared a state of Emergency that could last through to May 2021. The whole of Europe is plunging towards a deeper second Covid crash. Confidence is in scarce supply.
Yet…
I read the drugs so favoured by President Trump have been dismissed as ineffective – but it’s not all bad news: new therapies, oxygen and other simple drug treatments to stem the virus are clearly improving outcomes. Deaths are rising on a far flatter curve than had been feared. The news on vaccines is promising. The big risk remains hospitals being swamped as the infection wave peaks – if that can be avoided maybe we still have Christmas? The latest numbers suggest that wave may have peaked – and that could prove a massive positive in coming weeks for markets.
And there is also the positive news the UK and EU are still talking about the access rules following the divorce agreement. It’s all about fish. Both sides are screaming “more for us – less for them”, but the fish have voted and are on our side of the Channel!
BUT! By and large, the US Election, the Pandemic and the Brexit game of chicken are all distractions.
Real issues like growth, employment and markets remain bound up in surging sovereign and corporate debt fuelled by ultra-low and negative interest rates. Global markets remain utterly distorted. Financial Asset Stagflation – bonds and equities getting more and more expensive as the economy deflates is a consequence of the monetary policy decision sof the last few years.
The thing about the pandemic that has proved true across every aspect of life and markets has been the way that it has accelerated change – the early adoption of new technologies and acceptance of change. I’m wondering if the Pandemic is also accelerating a collapse in confidence in Democracy and causing us to question the inconsistencies in markets more closely? It feels like our faith in governments has never been so tested and found wanting? The number of articles questioning the basis of markets is rising.
Clearly Governments in the West are making a right hash of the Pandemic. Meanwhile, our markets seem to be marching down the proverbial rabbit hole. When you read anguished articles about how PIK bonds are making a resurgence, the scale of demand for negative yielding bonds, or why more and more corporates are tumbling into Zombiedom insolvency, blame it on policy and ask how governments can save us with yet more distorting Fiscal policy interventions. It’s a terrible mess. Consequences. Consequences.
As a result of our fixation on the Election, The Pandemic, the surreal madness of markets and the pace of change, perhaps we’re maybe missing the real issues…
I think Ray Dalio of Bridgewater might have got it right. Think not about the way the West is in trouble, but how China is emerging from this crisis. In a fascinating comment in the FT he argues: “Don’t be blind to China’s rise in a changing world.”
Much of the current ESG and Woke agendas skewing investment decisions in Western asset management are incompatible with investments into China – whether it’s the surveillance state or the treatment of minorities, or Hong Kong. Yet I also read about how HSBC’s CEO was gladhanding Chinese officials at a Shanghai conference it sponsored last week, trying to undo the damage its done to its China franchise through its collusion with US authorities on Huawei. HSBC promotes itself as the best bank for ESG advice and sustainability. (Take a look at all the awards it’s won in the space. I wonder how much it paid for them?) Yet, it’s the same bank that’s been there kow-towing in Shanghai.
At least Dalio’s piece in the FT says it honestly – China’s economy is growing, it’s going to be massive, and you can’t afford to ignore the fundamentals of price and the effects of anti-Chinese bias in investment decisions. You can’t ignore how what happens in China impacts markets – for instance Xi planning to make China carbon neutral by 2060 and how that impacted renewable energy stocks.
After spending the last few months focused on the West and the Pandemic… it’s maybe time to be looking East. A different set of risks and a whole series of moral questions to ask.
7. OIL ISSUES
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 AM….
Euro/USA 1.1823 DOWN .0036 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED
USA/JAPAN YEN 104.87 UP 0.240 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…
GBP/USA 1.3050 UP 0.0042 (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/
USA/CAN 1.3185 UP .0069 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 36 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1823 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 26.88 PTS OR .82%
//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 132.65 PTS OR .54%
/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,26%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
Trading from Europe and Asia
EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 132.65 PTS OR .54%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.88 PTS OR .82%
Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.26%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 22.85 POINTS OR 0.09%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1904.20
silver:$24.30-
Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.815% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.
The 30 yr bond yield 1.608 DOWN 4 IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 92.95 UP 18 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING
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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.16% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.04.% UP 1 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.19%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.74 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 55 points higher than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.57% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//
THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.31% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1818 DOWN .0040 or 40 basis points
USA/Japan: 104.88 UP .251 OR YEN DOWN 25 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.3015 UP .0007 POUND UP 7 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar DOWN 94 basis points to 1.3210
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed DOWN 6.7122 ON SHORE (DOWN)..
GETTING DANGEROUS
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.7015 (YUAN DOWN)..
TURKISH LIRA: 8.082 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.04%
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 0.703 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.595 DOWN 5 in basis points on the day
Your closing USA dollar index, 93.06 UP 29 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 50.25 0.86%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 460.48 POINTS OR 3.64%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 85.40 POINTS 1.75%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 72.50 POINTS or 1.05%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 310.91.81 POINTS OR 1.61%
WTI Oil price; 38.58 12:00 PM EST
Brent Oil: 40.61 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE RISES: 76.18 THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.04 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 4 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO –.57 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price f0r Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM : 38.57//
BRENT : 40.41
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.801..down 4 basis points…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.595 down 5 basis points..
EURO/USA 1.1808 ( DOWN 51 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:104.85 UP .216 (YEN DOWN 21 BASIS POINTS/..
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.06 UP 29 cent(s)/
The British pound at 4 pm Britain Pound/USA:1.3021 UP 13 POINTS
the Turkish lira close:8.09
the Russian rouble 76.37 up 0.02 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (up 2 BASIS POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.3306 DOWN 20 BASIS pts
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.57%
The Dow closed DOWN 649.93 POINTS OR 2.29%
NASDAQ closed DOWN 189.34 POINTS OR 1.64%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 33.19 CLOSED UP 5.64
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.216%//libor dropping like a stone
USA trading today in Graph Form
Stimulus Stalemate & SAP Slam Stocks, Hopes Crushed On COVID Chaos, Cresting ‘Blue Wave’
So this happened (in the US)…
Worst day for stocks since June.
After this happened (in Europe)…DAX at 4-mo lows…
Source: Bloomberg
After a triple whammy hit of Software as a safe-haven being slammed; COVID fears being restoked; and election uncertainty picking up:
SAP warned, stealing some hope for that sector as a safe-haven during COVID chaos, and the stocks crashed by the most ever…
Source: Bloomberg
And that is just as COVID chaos is accelerating (in the mainstream media narrative) with Scott Gottlieb calling it a “tipping point” and WH CoS Mark Meadows admitting we’re “not going to contain the virus.” Of course, this is being stoked by the media to hype just how bad Trump is ahead of the election…
But, as David Stockman noted, here’s a curve that’s flattened – the percent of all US deaths with COVID…
And hospitalizations are rising because non-COVID procedures that were delayed over the summer are finally getting their ops done, COVID-related hospitalizations remain low.
Additionally, reality is starting to dawn on more than a few market participants that Blue Wave odds are fading amid the exposure of Biden’s corruption.
Source: Bloomberg
So don’t panic?
US equity markets broke critical technical levels (50DMA)…
NOTE that at the cash open, algos went wild and ramped Nasdaq higher while dumping Russell 2000 but that idiocy was all unwound by the close…
Airline stocks were slammed…
Source: Bloomberg
Casino stocks also tumbled…
Source: Bloomberg
And Biden bellwether TAN also dropped…
FANG Stocks erased last week’s bounce…
Source: Bloomberg
So much for algos attempt to diverge growth and value for some rotation momentum…
Source: Bloomberg
But momo spiked as value was crushed…
Source: Bloomberg
“Most Shorted” stocks were slammed by the most in a month…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX spiked dramatically, back to 33…
Source: Bloomberg
…signaling further downside to stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
VVIX also jumped to its highest since early September’s slump…
Source: Bloomberg
And Put-Call ratios hit 5-month highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
With 10Y Yield back below 80bps… so much for that “bond rout”…
Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar rallied on the day, erasing Friday’s flub…
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos all weakened today as stocks rolled over…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin dropped back below $13,000 (but was trying to get back)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil tumbled, extending its drop below $40…
Gold was flat on the day holding above $1900, Silver lower, back below $25…
Finally, there’s this… a record daily average rise in COVID cases (PANIC!!), but not a record rise in deaths (don’t PANIC!!)…
Source: Bloomberg
And hospitalizations FOR COVID are low and not rising!!!!
a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA
b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls
ii)Market data/USA
New Home Sales Tumble In September As Average Price Hits Record High
Despite the surprise surge to multi-year highs in existing home sales, new home sales were expected to rise only a modest 1.4% MoM in September (vs +4.8% MoM in August) but things were notably worse with new home sales tumbling 3.5% in September (and August’s bounce revised down to +3.0%)…
Source: Bloomberg
This move and revision takes SAAR back below 1 million (to 959k in Sept vs 1.025mm exp)…
Source: Bloomberg
The median price ticked up from $322.4K to $326.8K…
But the fact that 19% of new homes sold in Sept. cost more than $500,000, up from 15% prior month, sent the mean price of home to a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
Perhaps notably, inventory improved modestly with months’ supply at 3.6 in Sept. compared to 3.4 prior month.
Chicago Fed’s national activity index moderates for third straight month in September
Oct. 26, 2020 at 8:58 a.m. ET
MarketWatch
National Activity index slips to 0.27 in September from 1.11 in August
The numbers: The Chicago Fed’s national activity index, which is designed to gauge overall U.S. economic activity, fell to 0.27 in September from a revised 1.11 in the prior month. The index’s three-month moving average, which tries to smooth out volatility, moved down to 1.33 from 3.22 in August.
A zero value of the index indicates the national economy is expanding at its historic trend rate of growth.
The August reading was revised from an initial reading of 0.79.
What happened: The Chicago Fed index is a weighted average of 85 economic indicators. Fifty of the indicators made positive contributions.
Production-related indicators subtracted 0.24 to the index in September. The contribution of sales, orders and inventories added 0.07, down from 0.10 in August.
Big picture: This is the third straight weaker reading in the index. It fits with worries that the economy is faltering after a burst of activity earlier in the summer. Additional fiscal support for the economy still seems blocked in Congress.
-END-
iii) Important USA Economic Stories
A We Work default looms and this may become systemic. This is worth watching
(zerohedge)
WeWork Default Looms As COVID Downturn Sparks Fitch Downgrade
Even though Global Head of Real Estate at WeWork, Peter Greenspan, recently told Ken Biberaj, US Managing Director at real estate services firm Savills, in an interview that the firm’s balance sheet is “strong,” Fitch Ratings downgraded the struggling co-working company on Thursday evening, warning about the increased default risk because the virus pandemic has resulted in a permanent shift in lower office space demand.
The rating agency slashed WeWork’s long-term issuer default rating to CCC from CCC+. The CCC tier, essentially the lowest level in the junk bond market, implies the once high-flying startup has a significant chance of defaulting on its obligations.
Fitch’s downgrade is due to the “viability of WeWork’s business model in light of a potential lasting shift by companies to a hybrid office model that leads to permanently lower office space demand.”
Fitch said, “WeWork has made material progress to reduce its cash burn rate, in a scenario where demand is structurally lower, Fitch sees WeWork as potentially requiring additional liquidity sources inclusive of and beyond the full $3.3 billion SoftBank financing commitment.”
Maybe that’s why SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son plowed $1.1 billion into the sinking ship, known as WeWork, in August to help it weather the coronavirus pandemic.
Fitch said WeWork’s cash burn rate had been cut by nearly 40% from $4 billion in 2019 to $2.5 billion in 2020. Under one scenario, absent of a second coronavirus wave and structurally lower office demand, Fitch sees WeWork’s burn rate decreasing to about $900 million, with much of the funding coming from SoftBank unsecured notes.
As for the scenario with a second wave and structurally lower office demand, which at the moment, appears to be in play, Fitch sees WeWork with a cash burn of about $1.5 billion in 2021 and 2022. Fitch questions if the struggling co-working company can receive funding in this scenario.
The virus pandemic forces a new era of remote working, and a permanent demand shift lower for office space. Fitch warns:
“WeWork’s business model is potentially compromised due to the coronavirus pandemic…”
Fitch believes the company will have to “negotiate exits” rather than “walk away from committed leases,” so it can preserve its “reputation” without “destabilize its business model.”
And rather than negotiating exits, WeWork, at some of its buildings, just stopped paying rent.
A previous concern held by the rating agency is that a reduction in leasing demand by WeWork in top cities could result in lower rents for other commercial spaces that would reduce the relative attractiveness of WeWork spaces.
WeWork’s bonds maturing in 2025 trade around 63 cents on the dollar as more downside is possible.
As for SoftBank’s Vision Fund’s upcoming SPAC, well, it remains to be seen if it will be the vehicle to take struggling WeWork public.
We give the last word to Fitch: “WeWork would be considered a going concern in bankruptcy and that the company would be reorganized rather than liquidated.”
PG&E May Cut Power To Nearly 500k As California Wildfire Risk Surges
Utility Pacific Gas and Electric’s meteorology team warned Friday that one of the strongest offshore wind events of the fire season could arrive in Northern California beginning Sunday. Ahead of the wind event, PG&E may be forced to cut power to hundreds of thousands of customers to avoid trees and branches from blowing into power lines, sparking fires.
PG&E said more than 466,000 customers across 38 counties, mainly situated in Northern and Central California, could risk potential power shutoffs as early as Sunday morning. The outages could disrupt large swaths of the San Francisco Bay area, the Sierra Nevada foothills, the Central Valley, and the Central Coast.
“Extremely dry, windy conditions with high gusts pose an increased risk for damage to the electric system that has the potential to ignite fires in areas with critically dry vegetation,” the power company said.
The weather forecast for Sunday shows northerly gust of up to 80 mph and low humidity levels. Wind speeds are expected to stay around 20-30 mph, with temperatures in the low 70s, making it a perfect environment for wildfire conditions. The National Weather Service has issued Red Flag warnings for Northern California through Tuesday.
California has faced “extremely high winds, extremely low humidity, extremely dry fuels due to the hottest average temperatures over the last six months, according to records that go back 126 years, and extreme drought across the territory given lack of rainfall,” said Scott Strenfel, PG&E’s head of meteorology and fire science.
Another round of potential blackouts would be a devastating blow for the state, already battered by extreme weather this fire season, scorching more than 4 million acres so far. PG&E has preemptively cut power four times this season, though the new round of outages could be the largest one yet.
Here are the current wildfires burning in California:
Video: PG&E’s Public Broadcast Warning Customers About Potential Outages
Here’s How Biden Will ‘Ban’ Fracking
Authored by C.Boyden Gray via RealClearPolitics.com,
The “fracking” revolution has unleashed an incredible American energy boom over the past decade. America is now the biggest producer of oil and gas in the world, beating Saudi Arabia and Russia. Fracking has contributed to an economic revival in areas of the country once in freefall. Pennsylvania is now second only to Texas in natural gas production, and Ohio is now fifth. This has reduced air pollution by displacing coal.
Joe Biden wants a counter-revolution, but he does not want you to know about it.
Candidate Joe Biden has sent mixed messages.
During the primary debates, Biden and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, said they supported a fracking ban. Their campaign, however, insists that the Biden plan would ban fracking only on federal lands, not on private lands. Fact checkers regularly parrot the talking point.
For the full picture, voters should take a look at Biden’s official clean energy plan. The Biden plan borrows the Green New Deal’s ambitious goal of a “carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035.”
Burning natural gas – methane – inevitably emits carbon, so the Biden plan requires eliminating natural gas for electricity generation by 2035.
Electricity generation is the main use of natural gas. It accounts for a third of all natural gas, using 11 trillion cubic feet of gas per year and growing. That is almost twice the amount of natural gas produced in all of Pennsylvania last year. Eliminating all this natural gas demand by 2035 would require idling countless natural gas wells and power plants, devastating local economies in Pennsylvania and elsewhere and destroying many good jobs. Without reliable natural gas electricity, states would experience California-like rolling blackouts.
This Green New Deal goal would never get congressional approval, but that may not matter. Biden promises to achieve his clean energy goals by fiat, issuing executive orders of “unprecedented reach that go well beyond the Obama-Biden Administration platform.” A Biden administration would move to achieve its goal of “carbon-free” electricity generation through an even more aggressive version of President Obama’s “Clean Power Plan” regulations. This Clean Power Plan 2.0 would require utilities to idle, then dismantle, their natural gas power plants.
President Trump’s accusation that Joe Biden would ban fracking is therefore closer to the truth than the fact checkers care to admit. It does not take a master’s degree in communications or journalism to realize that a ban on using natural gas is a ban on extracting it, whether through fracking or through ordinary drilling. That’s the Biden plan.
end
Monday morning: Trump is immediately fire both Christopher Wray and Gina Haspel if elected. These deep states should be have fired long ago
(zerohedge)
Trump To ‘Immediately Fire’ FBI, CIA Directors If Reelected
President Trump will ‘immediately’ move to fire FBI Director Christopher Christopher Wray and CIA Director Gina Haspel, along with Defense Secretary Mark Esper, according to Axios – which spoke to “people who’ve discussed these officials’ fates with the president.”
And while the list of pink slips is allegedly much longer, Trump’s top priority is getting rid of Wray – whose FBI sat on alleged evidence of Biden corruption in Ukraine contained on Hunter Biden’s laptop (along with alleged child porn), while Trump was impeached for asking the Ukrainians to investigate exactly that.
According to Axios:
- Wray and Haspel are despised and distrusted almost universally in Trump’s inner circle. He would have fired both already, one official said, if not for the political headaches of acting before Nov. 3.
Recall that Haspel served as station chief for the CIA’s London branch, and was – in Senator Rand Paul’s words, “a close acolyte of John Brennan” (who, as CIA chief, couldn’t legally spy on Americans on domestic soil). And what took place in London? For starters, the FBI’s spy operation spy operation on Trump campaign aides conducted by US intelligence operative Stephan Halper. Most notably, the UK-based Cambridge professor (and longtime US intelligence asset whose father-in-law was former director of the CIA, and who allegedly spied on the Carter administration), lured Trump aide George Papadopoulos into an espionage operation aimed at the Trump campaign– predicated on ‘Russian dirt’ rumors allegedly fed to him by a Clinton ally, Joseph Mifsud.
London was also the venue for a summer, 2016 meeting between former FBI agent Peter Strzok and Australian Diplomat Alexander Downer – another Clinton ally who claimed that Papadopoulos drunkenly admitted to knowledge that the Russians had Hillary Clinton’s emails.
More recently, Haspel was accused of personally blocking the release of documents exposing the Russiagate hoax. “This isn’t just a scandal about Democrat projection, this is a scandal about what was a coup planned against the incoming administration at the highest levels and I can report here tonight that these declassifications that have come out,” The Federalist‘s Sean Davis told FOX News host Tucker Carlson last month. “Those weren’t easy to get out and there are far more waiting to get out.”
Downer and Halper, meanwhile, are linked through UK-based Haklyut & Co.an opposition research and intelligence firm – founded by three former British intelligence operatives in 1995 to provide the kind of otherwise inaccessible research for select governments and Fortune 500 corporations.
Downer – a good friend of the Clintons, had been on Haklyut’s advisory board for a decade, while Halper is connected to the research firm through Director of U.S. operations Jonathan Clarke, with whom he has co-authored two books (h/t themarketswork.com). Also interesting via Lifezette – “Downer is not the only Clinton fan in Hakluyt. Federal contribution records show several of the firm’s U.S. representatives made large contributions to two of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign organizations.”
Back the the point – much of the Obama DOJ’s operation against the Trump administration occurred on UK soil when Haspel, a Brennan acolyte, was CIA station chief.
end
This is good news: the Astra Zeneca COVID 19 vaccine produces robust immune response in the elderly
AstraZeneca Says Its COVID-19 Vaccine Produces Robust Immune Response In Elderly Patients
Days after US regulators gave the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine the green light to re-start its US-based trials, the FT is reporting new data that seems promising, even if it’s still pretty preliminary.
The vaccine, which was considered the Western frontrunner until US authorities halted the trial after two participants in the UK trial came down with symptoms, has since ceded its lead in the US to Pfizer, though regulators in Europe are still working to expedite the approval process, virtually guaranteeing that the most high-risk groups in the EU (health-care workers, the elderly, and the ill) should start receiving it by the end of the year, provided the final ‘Phase 3’ trial data confirm that the vaccine is, in fact, effective at preventing disease without compromising safety (at least, in the short term).
But on Monday morning, the FT reported that the vaccine has produced an encouraging response in older patients, triggering production of antibodies and T-cells in older patients.
The discovery that the vaccine being developed by the University of Oxford, in collaboration with AstraZeneca, triggers protective antibodies and T-cells in older age groups has encouraged researchers as they seek evidence that it will spare those in later life from serious illness or death from the virus.
Age has emerged as the principal risk factor for a severe bout of Covid-19. However, the immune system weakens with age, raising concerns that the very group that most needs the protection of a vaccine may generate the least effective response to one.
People aware of the results from so-called immunogenicity blood tests carried out on a subset of older participants say the findings echo data released in July that showed the vaccine generated “robust immune responses” in a group of healthy adults aged between 18 and 55. The earlier findings showed that the vaccine induced two forms of human immune response — generating antibodies and T-cells — for at least 56 days, according to an analysis published in The Lancet.
In an infographic, the FT illustrates how the immune system responds to the virus.
While at least one source corroborated the company’s optimistic spin on the data, another scientist quoted by the FT cautioned that the data are hardly conclusive. And for now, at least, it’s impossible to make a statement about timing with certainty.
The “Phase 3” trial data isn’t even in yet, and besides, nobody can say for sure how British regulators might interpret the data once it is.
But investors and the public will be watching, probably with a great deal of intensity considering that President Trump’s comments about how little we know w/r/t viral immunity during the final presidential debate with Joe Biden have brought that issue back to prominence.
This hasn’t stopped the British health system from placing an extremely high degree of confidence in the vaccine. Staff at a major London hospital trust have been told to be ready to receive the first batches of the vaccine being developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, according to British tabloid the Sun.
end
Iconic Barbershop In NYC’s East Village Closes After 73 Years In Business Due To COVID
Today in “the solution can’t be worse than the problem” news…
Astor Place hairstylists is closing down after 73 years of doing business in the East Village. The iconic hair salon has become the latest victim of both the coronavirus pandemic and the draconian shutdown measures that New York City has had to endure for months.
The shop has counted people like Robert de Niro, Kevin Bacon and Andy Warhol has clients over the years, according to the New York Post. But now, the shop is closing for good just before Thanksgiving.
Michael Saviello, the shop’s manager, told The Post: “We’re down 90% of our business. We’ve been open every day since reopening in June, but we’ve reduced our hours.”
The decision affected 40 stylists that work at the shop, including one named “Big Mike” who has been working at the shop for over 40 years. He said: “A lot of people cried when we told them the news. Some of our customers cried because they came here as kids and now bring their kids to get their hair cut.”
The shop has been owned by the same family for three generations and its message has always been diversity, embracing the idea that people from all different economic backgrounds still need haircuts. A sign near the door informs customers of the many languages the staff speaks.
“Maybe we’ll come back when the city comes back, but right now it’s not feasible,” Saviello concluded.
iv) Swamp commentaries)
Amazing!! loans from the Chinese Communist Party to Hunter Biden et al and they still remain quiet?
(GatewayPundit)
The bar for vetting is set far too low as Americans and the world deserve better. One would have thought even the Democrats could find a better candidate
|
“It’s Time To Defund NPR”: GOP Rep Slams NPR For Refusing To Cover Hunter Biden Laptop Bombshell
Representative Paul Gosar called for the defunding of National Public Radio (NPR) last week as a result of the outlet refusing to cover the bombshell Hunter Biden laptop story.
NPR had previously called the story a “waste of time”, stating: “We don’t want to waste our time on stories that aren’t really stories, and we don’t want to waste the listener’s and reader’s time on stories that are pure distractions.”
Among others who were outraged about the mainstream media actively covering up what is obviously a bombshell revelation regarding the Biden family’s business dealings with China, Ukraine and Russia (which we covered in detail in this report) was Representative Paul Gosar.
“It’s time to defund @NPR. This is appalling,” he Tweeted late last week:NPR public editor Kelly McBride also published a question from a listener late last week asking why NPR hadn’t covered the story, according to Fox News. The inquiry read: “Someone please explain why NPR has apparently not reported on the Joe Biden, Hunter Biden story in the last week or so that Joe did know about Hunter’s business connections in Europe that Joe had previously denied having knowledge?”
McBride responded by saying there were “many, many red flags” with the story (yeah, like it’s devastating to your preferred Presidential candidate)and suggested it could be Russian disinformation – a narrative that was roundly discredited on the night of the last Presidential debate, where former Biden associate Tony Bobulinski held a press conference and confirmed much of the NY Post’s findings.
But that didn’t stop NPR from pushing the Russia angle. They stated: “Intelligence officials warn that Russia has been working overtime to keep the story of Hunter Biden in the spotlight. Even if Russia can’t be positively connected to this information, the story of how Trump associates Steve Bannon and Rudy Giuliani came into a copy of this computer hard drive has not been verified and seems suspect.”
Recall, Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said last week that the laptop was “not part of some Russian disinformation campaign.”
end
Freudian slip: Biden has assembled the most extensive voter fraud organization in history.. that is correct
(zerohedge)
In Bizarre Freudian Slip, Biden Brags About Assembling “Most Extensive Voter Fraud Organization In History”
Former Vice President Joe Biden suffered from either a senior moment or a Freudian slip on Saturday, when he told Pod Save America host Dan Pfeiffer – a longtime Obama aide – that his campaign has assembled the “most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics.”
“What’s your message to the folks who have not yet voted or do not yet have a plan to vote. And part two, for the 50 million Americans who’ve already voted, what can they do over the last ten days to help make sure that you’re the next President of the United States?” Pfeiffer asked Biden.
Biden returned word salad at first, saying “Well, first of all, you know, uh, what really rankles, uh, my opponent is I say that, uh, the thing that bothers him most is he’s not a patch on Barack’s jeans. I mean, you know Barack was one hell of a president, and I tell you what, man, what an honor it was — I think you guys believe it, too — to serve with him. I mean, incredible honor. And, uh, I’m not being solicitous. I really mean that. Um, he had more integrity in his little finger than most people have in their whole body and he had a backbone like a ramrod. Has one.”
Then Biden touted his ‘voter fraud’ organization:
“Secondly, we’re in a situation where we have put together — and you’d [sic] guys, did it for our, the president Obama’s administration, before this — we have put together, I think, the most extensive and and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics. What the president is trying to do is discourage people from voting by implying their vote won’t be counted, it can’t be counted, we’re gonna challenge it, and all these things. If enough people vote, it’s gonna overwhelm the system. You see what’s happening now. You guys know it as well as I do. You see the long, long lines in early voting. You see the millions of people who have already cast a ballot.”
end
Bobulinski furious over the fact that the Biden’s’ received a 5 million dollar side deal with the Communist Chinese party//Chinese energy company!
(zerohedge)
Hunter Biden Ex-Biz Associate Was Livid Over $5MM Side-Deal With Chinese: Texts
Former Biden business associate-turned-whistleblower, Tony Bobulinski, was absolutely livid after learning that the Bidens received an alleged $5 million interest-free loan from a now-bankrupt Chinese energy company following the release of a damning Senate report.
“You can imagine my shock when reading the report yesterday put out by the Senate committee. The fact that you and HB were lying to Rob, James and I while accepting $5 MM from Cefc is infuriating,” wrote Bobulinski to Jim Biden. (Via the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross):
CEFC refers to CEFC China Energy, a PLA-linked company which was paying Hunter $850,00 per year according to an email from Biden business associate James Gilliar to Bobulinksi – which is also the source of the “10 held by H for the big guy” email.
Emails obtained by the New York Post show that Hunter “pursued lucrative deals involving China’s largest private energy company — including one that he said would be “interesting for me and my family.”” according to the report.
You can read more on Hunter and the CEFC here. As an aside, but of course not coincidental we’re sure, the Clinton Foundation accepted a donation between $50,001 and $100,000 from CEFC.
And as the National Pulse notes, the Bidens weren’t the only members of the DC political establishment that the CEFC tried to ‘purchase.’
* * *
A New York Times article, “A Chinese Tycoon Sought Power and Influence. Washington Responded.”, outlined how Ye sought influence in D.C., attempting to connect with powerful individuals like those from the Biden family.
“Ye Jianming, a fast-rising Chinese oil tycoon, ventured to places only the most politically connected Chinese companies dared to go. But what he wanted was access to the corridors of power in Washington — and he set out to get it. Soon, he was meeting with the family of Joseph R. Biden Jr., who was then the vice president,” the article noted.
However, members of D.C.’s political class didn’t always accept Ye’s overtures:
“Ye Jianming’s early efforts to break into the Washington power broker scene didn’t always pan out. Five years ago, CEFC approached Bobby Ray Inman, a retired admiral and national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter, about setting up a joint venture, Mr. Inman said in an interview. The company promised it would pay him $1 million a year, without specifying what business they would go into. He turned down the offer. Later, Mr. Inman said, CEFC officials called him and said they were considering acquiring oil fields in Syria. Could he help them persuade the American military not to bomb them? Again, he said no.”
The Clintons, however, had no qualms about accepting money from Ye, a Chinese Communist Party member with ties to the People’s Liberation Army. The New York Times noted:
“Mr. Ye also further loosened CEFC’s purse strings, donating as much as $100,000 to the Clinton Foundation.”
* * *
Meanwhile, Hunter Biden sought to avoid registering as a foreign agent in doing business with CEFC, suggesting that he and his prospective partners set up a shell company to be able to bid on contracts with the US government, according to documents obtained by the Daily Caller.
A day after sending the message, Biden arranged a meeting between his father, Joe Biden, and Tony Bobulinski, one of the prospective partners in a deal with CEFC China Energy, a Chinese conglomerate whose chairman had links to the communist regime in Beijing.
“We don’t want to have to register as foreign agents under the FCPA which is much more expansive than people who should know choose not to know,” Hunter Biden wrote to Bobulinski on May 1, 2017, according to a message obtained by the DCNF.
“No matter what it will need to be a US company at some level in order for us to make bids on federal and state funded projects.” –Daily Caller
And according to Bobulinski, Joe Biden was in on the whole thing.
The Press continues to treat the entire Biden fiasco as a foreign intelligence operation.
v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.
Kudlow: Ball’s not Moving Much on Stimulus Relief Proposal – BBG 9:05 ET
Kudlow: Still Policy Disagreements, Numerical Disagreements – BBG 9:06 ET
Kudlow: Doesn’t Know that Bill Can Get Done before Election – BBG 9:15 ET
Mnuchin: Pelosi Has ‘Dug in’, Still Significant Differences – BBG 12:16 ET
Mnuchin: If Pelosi Wants to Compromise, There Will Be a Deal – BBG 12:17 ET
Pelosi: Stimulus Can Be Passed Before Nov. 3 if Trump Backs It – BBG 11:12 ET
@CNBC: If House Speaker Pelosi “wants to compromise, there will be a deal,” Treasury Sec. Mnuchin says on stimulus talks. “We’ve made lots of progress in lots of areas but there’s still some significant differences that we’re working through.” 13:17 ET https://cnb.cx/3ojsxkz
Meadows Hopes for Stimulus Deal ‘In the Next Day or So’ 13:33 ET
Meadow’s verbal intervention presented traders with a cue to begin the standard Friday afternoon rally. The up leg persisted into the close.
Human rights allegations in Xinjiang could jeopardize solar supply chain Oct. 21, 2020
The solar industry’s growing dependence on China’s autonomous Xinjiang region for a critical raw material poses mounting risks to a wide range of companies as the U.S. government moves to confront Beijing over alleged human rights abuses there… https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/human-rights-allegations-in-xinjiang-could-jeopardize-solar-supply-chain-60829945
The above story is a reason for Chinese solar stocks’ tumble on Thursday
Released emails show Fauci signed off on WHO-sponsored statement approving China’s response to COVID – The statement was sent out in late January before the worst of the pandemic.
Scoop: Trump’s post-election execution list
If President Trump wins re-election, he’ll move to immediately fire FBI Director Christopher Wray and also expects to replace CIA Director Gina Haspel and Defense Secretary Mark Esper, two people who’ve discussed these officials’ fates with the president tell Axios…[We’d add Fauci to the list.]
https://www.axios.com/trump-firing-wray-haspel-esper-088cbd70-3524-4625-91f1-dbc985767c71.html
76% of American CEOs say they may shrink office space [will need less office space in the future…]
https://fortune.com/2020/10/22/76-of-american-ceos-say-they-may-shrink-office-space/
China’s GTV Releases Videos of Hunter Biden Sex Tapes while Smoking Crack
“…It is for the sake of justice that we, the new Federal State of China, have made this picture public because the friends of communists are our enemies. They take advantage of those Western politicians…and threaten them by getting hold of and recording their sex and drug videos, forcing them to sellout their countries…” GTV announced they will be releasing more video.
Twitter Nukes Alleged Hunter Biden Sex Tape after Letting Borat-Giuliani Sex Scene Trend
Twitter has scrubbed all links and photos related to the video and story, and is suspending accounts that appear to be trying to spread the video or screenshots from the footage… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/grainy-footage-allegedly-shows-hunter-biden-smoking-crack-and-receiving-footjob
GTV Releases SECOND HUNTER BIDEN VIDEO… Crack Cocaine on Scale
@MaybeAmes: Hunters creepy “foot sex,”… and crack-smoking isn’t the “story” about Hunter’s Sex Tape…It’s the fact that Chinese people released it. What else do they have? The Bidens are compromised and a national security threat to this country.
@CBS_Herridge: @SenRonJohnson statement Bobulinski/FBI interview request READ: This morning lawyers for Tony Bobulinski informed the Senate Homeland Security + Governmental Affairs Com + Senate Finance Com that the FBI asked his client to sit for an interview today in addition to providing copies of his phones. Consequently, the interview scheduled for this morning has been postponed…
GOP Sen @ChuckGrassley: Our records show H Biden raked in millions from deals in China + Ukraine + elswhere And new records suggest VP Biden knew/could profit too. My report w Sen Johnson showed H Biden moved over $1 million to VPs brother James Biden & Lion Hall Group They wouldn’t answer questions abt the suspicious transaction & bank shut down account…
@1776Stonewall: Hunter’s laptop shows that Peter Henderson is the pseudonym Joe Biden used on his secret email chains
@stillgray: I found it curious that Joe Biden referred to “Dark Winter.” [What is coming due to Covid] Operation Dark Winter is the code name for a senior-level bioterrorist attack simulation conducted in 2001. It was designed to carry out a mock version of a covert and widespread smallpox attack on the US.
Operation Dark Winter is also the basis of the storyline in Tom Clancy’s The Division. A political and military coup by the Deep State following the outbreak of a deadly pandemic that ravages the United States. More on this: Joe Biden apparently chose the name Peter Henderson as his email pseudonym. It’s also the name of a KGB mole in Tom Clancy’s novels.
Blockbuster Report Reveals How Biden Family Was Compromised by China
HUNTER also did business with Chinese tycoons linked with the Chinese military and against the interests of US national security. BIDEN’s foreign policy stance towards China (formerly hawkish), turned positive despite China’s country’s rising geopolitical assertiveness…
In summary, the Chinese government funded a business that it co-owned along with the son of a sitting US vice president and Secretary of State who was with high probability directly or indirectly invested in the holding company… It is apparent that HUNTER has been compromised by Chinese intelligence…this is why Beijing is desperate to get Joe Biden… https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/blockbuster-report-reveals-how-biden-family-was-compromised-china
@Rasmussen_Poll: National Daily Black Likely Voter Job Approval for @POTUS: October 19-23, 2020
Mon 10/19 – 25%; Tue 10/20 – 24%; Wed 10/21 – 31%; Thu 10/22 – 37%; Fri 10/23 – 46%
@RobertCahaly: We see this same info in our @trafalgar_group Battleground State polls. Rasmussen Poll is right on target here. (Trafalgar got 2016 right, by using the ?: ‘Who is your neighbor voting for?’)
CNN’s Van Jones: Trump ‘doesn’t get enough credit’ for the ‘good stuff he has done for the Black community’ – Jones says he gets ‘beat up by liberals’ every time he credits the president
https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-van-jones-trump-not-enough-credit-black-community
@AndrewCMcCarthy: Trump won the night on points. But Trump wins tomorrow big when they roll the tape on fracking, oil, Russian disinformation. Hunter is a bigger story tomorrow because Biden preposterously claimed that the laptop was Russian disinformation. Biden is ‘the big guy’; if he wasn’t, we’d have heard a defense…Nobody with an IQ over 10 believes the laptop is Russian disinformation…
Just heard the Biden defense: No big payoffs in my tax returns. If that was a thing, we’d have to have dropped every criminal case in history. [McCarthy is ex-federal prosecutor, SDNY]
@AZachParkinson: Twitter now putting warnings on tweets that are just unedited clips of Biden saying he would end fracking https://twitter.com/AZachParkinson/status/1319686412158095363
@1776Stonewall: Trump: “Would you shut down the oil business?” Biden: “YES!”…
WSJ: Biden’s Debate Remarks Inject Energy Issues into 2020 Race – Some Democrats in oil-rich states distance themselves from Biden’s call to transition away from oil industry
“I would transition away from the oil industry, yes,” Mr. Biden said during the debate…
Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said Thursday marked the campaign’s biggest day of online fundraising. The campaign and the Republican National Committee together brought in $26 million around the debate … https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-debate-remarks-inject-energy-issues-into-2020-race-11603472841
Democrats in U.S. drilling states push back against Biden oil remarks
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-drilling-idUSKBN2782SI
Joe’s vow to shut down the oil industry might have bequeathed the House to the GOP and cost the Dems a few Senate seats.
Minnesota Senate race dramatically narrows in poll just before election
Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, shedding her double-digit lead… A KTSP/SurveyUSA poll released on Wednesday showed Lewis and Smith in a virtual tie (43% to 42%). As recently as early October, Smith enjoyed a seven point lead over Lewis. That was even larger in mid-September when she led him 47% to 36%… According to 5 Eyewitness News, suburban women… have helped drive the shift by leaving Smith… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/minnesota-senate-race-dramatically-narrows-lewis-smith
Joe Biden Vows Amnesty for All Illegals in First 100 Days: ‘We Owe Them‘ https://t.co/DDnfljG7gK
@SteveGuest: Biden looks at his watch during the debate. A sure sign he knows he lost. [ala Bush in ‘92]
https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1319468357981249537
Biden shocks debate viewers with bizarre Hitler reference
“Having a good relationship with leaders of other countries is a good thing,” Trump said. Biden shot back, “That’s like saying we had a good relationship with Hitler before he in fact invaded Europe.”
…Dumbfounded viewers couldn’t believe Biden referenced one of history’s most infamous dictators.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/hitler-debate-biden
Fact Check: Millions of insurance plans were cancelled due to Obamacare, but Biden says nobody lost their plans https://t.co/hA6urRr4zb
On Friday, Trump congratulated debate moderator Kristen Welker for her performance. DJT noted that Welker interrupted him far more than Biden – but that was because ‘Joe had little to say’.
Biden Dusts Off Obama’s Most Famous Lie: “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it,” was a promise President Barack Obama often made when selling the Affordable Care Act… Perhaps Biden has been so sheltered by media coverage he believes he can say anything he wants. Biden again falsely claimed that he hadn’t called the China travel ban “xenophobic” and that he hadn’t called for a ban on fracking… https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/biden-dusts-off-obamas-most-famous-lie/
@AndrewCMcCarthy: Twitter tried to talk me out of retweeting our @NRO editorial. Tried to shame me by asking whether I’d read it first. Happens I’m on NR’s editorial board, but most readers are not. I assume they’ll find it creepy that Twitter is monitoring whether they read before retweeting.
NR’s editorial: The Media’s Shameful Hunter Biden Abdication
National Public Radio’s public editor today, Terence Samuel, managing editor for news, explained why readers haven’t seen any stories about the New York Post’s Hunter Biden email scoop. “We don’t want to waste our time on stories that are not really stories, and we don’t want to waste the listeners’ and readers’ time on stories that are just pure distractions,”…
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/media-shameful-hunter-biden-abdication/
Rep. Paul Gosar calls for defunding NPR over lack of Hunter Biden laptop coverage
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/paul-gosar-defunding-npr-hunter-biden-laptop
DJT campaigned in Florida on Friday. Biden delivered a short speech on Covid (reiterated his call for a national mask mandate) from a studio in Wilmington, Delaware and took no questions. Joe said, “As president I will mandate mask wearing in all federal buildings and all interstate transportation.” ???
https://twitter.com/9NEWSNANCY/status/1320044699898368001
Joe and the MSM are back to promulgating Covid fear to divert attention from the Hunter Biden stuff.
@realDonaldTrump: The Fake News is talking about CASES, CASES, CASES. This includes many low risk people. Media is doing everything possible to create fear prior to November 3rd. The Cases are up because TESTING is way up, by far the most, and best, in the world. Mortality rate is DOWN 85% plus!
@CBSNews: Joe Biden: “Imagine a day in the not-too-distant future when you can enjoy dinner with your friends and your family, and maybe even go out to a movie. Or when you can celebrate your birthday, weddings, graduations, surrounded by your nearest and dearest friends.”
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1319725267863089152
@SteveGuest: Joe Biden brags about having “the most extensive and inclusive VOTER FRAUD organization in the history of American politics.” https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1320107370312323073
Trump Shows Florida Crowd Video of Joe Biden Calling for Cuts to Social Security, Medicare
The video featured Biden’s history of talking about cutting Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and veterans’ benefits… with footage from a Democrat primary debate with Biden and Sanders about the issue… https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/23/watch-trump-shows-florida-crowd-video-of-joe-biden-calling-for-cuts-to-social-security-medicare/
Insider Advantage chief Matt Towery on Friday night’s “Hannity” said he doesn’t trust any polls, even his own. Matt said polling is getting too many cellphones and this could be the last cycle for polling.
Pew Research: Telephone-based surveys… have become much more difficult and expensive to conduct. Difficult because the swarm of robocalls… along with the development of call blocking technologies… Response rates have gone from 36% in 1997 to 6% today. (2019). https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2019/11/19/a-field-guide-to-polling-election-2020-edition/
@JohnRuddick2: In these recent presidential elections, the polling for the Republican candidate sharply improved in the final two weeks: 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1996, 2012 & 2016… 2020 doing the same.
The ‘data’ show Trump and the GOP are doing very well in early voting, registrations, crowd size, small donors and primary voting. Analysts expect Biden to lead Trump by an enormous margin in VBM (3-1 to 5-1) due to Dems and MSM’s widely promulgated COVID-19 fear mongering that is intended to push Democrats into VBM. Polling shows GOP voters by huge margins will vote in Election Day Voting (EDV) and have far more enthusiasm. So, the Dem scheme is to distribute vote by mail (VBM) ballots so people can vote without the inconvenience of voting in person.
As of Sunday, Dems have a 1.5 – 1 edge in VBM. The GOP has a 1.33 – 1 edge in EV (early voting in person). Dem are +354k in total votes. https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ (link for FL EV and VBM)
Indication of EDV: CBS/YouGov poll of ‘Those that haven’t voted yet’ (October 23, 2020): Florida: Trump 59%, Biden 40%; Georgia: Trump 54%, Biden 44%; North Carolina: Trump 58%, Biden 41%
Though it’s illuminating to know how many Dems and Repubs voted early or by mail, no one knows how many crossover votes there will be, especially among minorities.
@JohnBasham: As Of (10/25):1,582,152 Texans Have Voted That DID NOT VOTE In 2016.
@MediumBuying: The Biden campaign is canceling TV ad schedules that had been booked in TEXAS… They are still staying up in El Paso and San Antonio markets [Biden writes off TX, except for House races in heavy Hispanic areas]
Joe and Jill spoke to a small crowd at a ‘drive in’ rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. https://twitter.com/PamFloresmusic/status/1320038104301010944
@KelemenCari: And once again, more Trump supports show up to a Joe Biden “rally” in Pennsylvania than Biden supporters https://twitter.com/KelemenCari/status/1320041561930014726
Fox’s @JoeShikhman: Incredible. The one public appearance Joe Biden does this weekend is a speech in Pennsylvania that immediately turns into a massive Trump rally/car parade/GOTV event. https://twitter.com/JoeShikhman/status/1320051228760559616
Team DJT’s @FrancisBrennan: Joe Biden wanders around the stage as his wife Jill Biden speaks (in PA).
https://twitter.com/FrancisBrennan/status/1320027653953507328
Biden’s call for sweeping mask mandate sees no change from Democratic governors
Biden said Americans should be wearing a mask ‘when they’re outside’
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bidens-mask-mandate-no-change-from-democratic-governors
@TrumpWarRoom: Joe Biden thought he wasn’t on camera. He walked up close to a crowd of people and talked to them — without wearing a mask. https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1320126033866215424
Joe delivered two very angry speeches on Saturday in PA replete with copious screaming. At the second event, he slurred some words. https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1320110985034739712
@TrumpWarRoom: Biden [need context except for the anger] says he is “sick and tired of smart guys.”
https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1320117045762064385
@TeamTrump: President @realDonaldTrump on Joe Biden’s very tiny event in Pennsylvania earlier, a state where Biden called residents “chumps” and has pledged to ban fracking [Trump: “People are in cars… He said ‘thank you all those people out there’… His partners, the media… made a tragic mistake. They showed the… tiny, tiny little crowd…” https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1320052539484680195
Joe Biden calls Trump supporters ‘chumps’ as they try to crash his drive-in Pennsylvania rally as he defends its small size saying ‘We don’t want to become superspreaders’
Biden: “I lived in Section 8 housing as a little boy.” Section 8 housing began in 1974; Joe was 30 then.
Obama held a ‘drive in rally’ in Florida for Joe. Not only was his crowd small, honking horns disrupted his speech and visibly upset him. https://twitter.com/me_think_free/status/1320100607131340801
Trump campaigned in NC, Ohio and Wisconsin on Saturday. On Sunday DJT went to New Hampshire and Maine. Joe called a ‘lid’ for Sunday but will do a ‘virtual event’.
@DanScavino: A last minute stop in Maine—and thousands… came out to support President Trump, as word began to spread throughout the community that he was coming. Absolutely incredible!
https://twitter.com/DanScavino/status/1320464283973505024
@NYScanner: BREAKING IN MANHATTAN. Anti-Trump protesters rip flags off vehicles part of the #JewsForTrump vehicle convoy. Throw red paint on vehicles, punch Trump supporters.
https://twitter.com/NYScanner/status/1320425646800199682
@MrAndyNgo: People in New York throw projectiles at driving participants of the #JewsforTrump caravan below. https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1320441746556284928
@robbystarbuck: This is BEVERLY HILLS this weekend. Yes Beverly Hills, CALIFORNIA. Meanwhile Joe Biden can’t get 40 cars to come hear him speak even with celebrity speakers. Something is happening that isn’t reflected in polls… Look at how diverse the crowd is. This is @theDemocrats nightmare!
https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1320449620808523776
In a 51-46 vote Friday, the Senate passed a motion to proceed with a vote on whether to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court of the United States… [Mitch says the vote will be no later than Monday] https://saraacarter.com/mcconnell-positions-senate-to-confirm-judge-barrett/
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) on Saturday said she will vote to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Murkowski, who is anti-Trump previous was against confirming a SCOTUS Justice before the election. Did constituent pressure or polling force her to change her vote?
The Babylon Bee: Intelligence Experts Concerned Media May Tamper With Election by Asking
Biden Questions https://babylonbee.com/news/worries-intensify-of-plot-to-influence-election-by-publishing-information-about-biden
Well that is all for today
I will see you TUESDAY night.
harveyorganblog.com 
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
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