OCT 27//MORE TAPES ON HUNTER BIDEN/JOE BIDEN APPEAR//BOBULSKINI WILL APPEAR FOR FULL HOUR ON TUCKER CARLSON//GOLD UP $6.20 TO $1910.20//SILVER UP 18 CENTS TO $24.48//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX: 108.32 TONNES//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE THROUGHOUT THE GLOBE//AMY CONEY BARRET CONFIRMED AS SUPREME COURT JUSTICE//PHILADELPHIA RIOTS LAST NIGHT//

GOLD:$1910.20  UP $6.20 

Silver:$24.48 UP  $0.18   London spot price ( cash market)

your data…

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1908.00  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $24.36//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

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CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

OCT GOLD:  1904.40  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /:  $5.80- BACKWARD//

NOV GOLD  1908.20 CLOSE 1:30 PM  SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE NOV:$2.00 BACKWARD

DEC. GOLD  $1912.00   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $1.80/ CONTANGO// $1.20 BELOW CONTANGO

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER NOV COMEX CLOSE;   $24.50…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 2 CENTS CONTANGO/

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $24.54  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       :  6  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO (   3 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL) CONTANGO

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving:4/99

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,902.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/26/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 10/28/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 2
323 C HSBC 84
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 7
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 14 1
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 64
661 H JP MORGAN 4
690 C ABN AMRO 4 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 1
905 C ADM 16
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 99 99
MONTH TO DATE: 34,425

issued 0

GOLDMAN SACHS STOPPED 0 CONTRACTS.

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT. CONTRACT: 99 NOTICE(S) FOR 9900 OZ  (.3079 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  34,425 NOTICES FOR 3,442,500 OZ ( 107.076 tonnes) 

SILVER//OCTOBER CONTRACT

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2269 for 11,345,000  oz

MARGIN REQUIREMENTS INCREASE FOR SILVER

Silver margin is now at $18,700, lowering leverage to a miniscule 6.5-1. Gold margin is now $12,650, giving it a leverage of only 15-1.

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $13,404  UP 343

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:   $13,664   UP   612 DOLLARS .

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GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $6.20  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

INVENTORY RESTS:

GLD: 1,263.80 TONNES OF GOLD//

WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

SLV: 561.194  MILLION OZ./

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Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 862 CONTRACTS FROM 159,221 UP TO 160,083 AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR CONSIDERABLE $0.18 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE  GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO CONSIDERABLE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING.. COUPLED AGAINST A STRONG  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL (1345 CONTRACTS). WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR OCT.  WE HAD A GOOD  NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2298 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD 1345  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  OCT 0;  DEC:  1345, MARCH  0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  1345 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

11.355 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL $0.18) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (2298) CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE GAIN IN OI WAS DUE TO i) HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A  ZERO GAIN IN SILVER OZ  STANDING  FOR OCTOBER, iii) GOOD COMEX GAIN AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION. YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

We have now switched to silver for our spreaders!!

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR SILVER.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT. HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCT. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

OCT

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF OCT:

9087 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 9087CONTRACTS) OR 45.43 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 478 CONTRACTS OR 2.390 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF OCT: 45.43 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 6.49% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,504.965 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                78.360 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)

OCT EFP                                 45.43   MILLION OZ (LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE FALLING OFF A CLIFF IN  NUMBERS)

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 953, DESPITE OUR  $0.18 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAY.…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1345 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS. YOU WILL RECALL THAT DECEMBER SILVER WAS BACKWARD TO THE FRONT MONTH AND THAT ALLOWED THE CROOKS TO ISSUE EFP’S AS THE COST TO CARRY IS MUCH LESS.  HOWEVER THEY ARE ALSO EXPOSED TO LONDONERS ATTACKING THE FRONT MONTH OF DECEMBER AND ASKING FOR DELIVERY.

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 2207 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES(DESPITE OUR $0.18 FALL IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

i.e 1345 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A GOOD SIZED INCREASE OF 862 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.18 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $24.40 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.797 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 114% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW OCT  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR  nil OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 398 CONTRACTS TO 557,154 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE TINY SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR INCREASE IN PRICE  OF  $1.50  /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY. WE PROBABLY HAD STRONG BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICALS. WE  HAD ZERO LONG  LIQUIDATION AND ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX….THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.50.  I FEEL THAT DOMINANT FORCE IN CONTRACTION OF OI WAS BANKER SHORT COVERING.  THEY ARE TRYING TO “GET OF DODGE” QUICKLY AS THEY FEEL SOMETHING IS “UP”…(MAYBE A SUDDEN REVALUATION IN GOLD?)

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  74//

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2740 CONTRACTS  (8.522 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED 3138 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . OCT: 0 DEC: 3138; JUNE: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2740.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 557,154. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR  SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2740 CONTRACTS: 398 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3138 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 2740 CONTRACTS OR 8.522 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3138) ACCOMPANYING THE TINY SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (398 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2740 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD  1) STRONG BANKER SHORT COVERING AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)ANOTHER STRONG INCREASE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT OCT. MONTH TO 108.32 TONNES)  3)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ;4) TINY COMEX OI LOSSAND 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS WAS COUPLED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//MONDAY//$1.50.

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 41,640 CONTRACTS OR 4,164,000 oz OR 129.51 TONNES (19 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2192 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 129.51 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 129.51/3550 x 100% TONNES =3.70% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,666.28  TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 570.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE EXTREMELY LOW)

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       178.49 TONNES (EFP’s AGAIN RISING DUE TO BACKWARDATION/LOWER FUTURE PREMIUMS//THUS LESS COST TO CARRY)

OCT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE.                        129.51 TONNES (LOOKS LIKE THESE ARE DROPPING IN NUMBERS AGAIN)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 862 CONTRACTS FROM 159,221 UP TO 160,083 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO 1) CONSIDERABLE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN STANDING  FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR OCT., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

EFP ISSUANCE 1345  CONTRACTS.. 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 OCT: 0 AND DEC. 1345 AND MARCH:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1345 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 862 CONTRACTS TO THE 1345 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2207 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 11.035 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.18  LOSS IN PRICE///

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.20 PTS OR .10%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.59 PTS OR .53%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 155.22 POINTS OR 0.61%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.73%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil DOWN TO 38.89 dollars per barrel for WTI and 40.70 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7065. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6948 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  FELL BY BY A TINY SIZED 398 CONTRACTS TO 557,730 MOVING CLOSER TO OUR  RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN OF $1.50 IN GOLD PRICING /MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE  NO DOUBT  HAD  1) SOME  BANKER//ALGO SHORT COVERING,  2)   ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3) ANOTHER   STRONG INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE  COMEX//OCT. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3316 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON.   ON TOP OF THIS, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. THE LAST FEW DAYS WE HAVE WITNESSED BACKWARDATION IN THE UPCOMING DECEMBER CONTRACT. THAT LOWERS TO COST TO CARRY THESE CONTRACTS AND THUS THE REASON WE WITNESS A LARGER THAN NORMAL EFP ISSUANCE.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 74

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3138 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:   OCT: 0  DEC 3138; JUN// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3138  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS  VERY SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 2740 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3138 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A TINY SIZED 398 COMEX CONTRACTS.. THE BIG NEWS IS THE POWERFUL LEVEL OF OCTOBER 2020 CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY.  (108.32 tonnes).

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE  $1.50).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED    10.314 TONNES, WITH  DOMINANT FORCE BEING SHORT COVERING BY THE ALGOS. SOMETHING IS SCARING ARE ALGOS AS THEY FEEL THE NEED TO “GET OUT OF DODGE” . YOU CAN SEE THIS AS THE TOTAL GOLD OPEN INTEREST DECLINES OR ADVANCES BY A TINY MARGIN.  THEY MUST SENSE A REVALUATION IN THE PRICE OF GOLD COMING.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 2740 CONTRACTS OR 274,000 OZ OR 8.522 TONNES.

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  557,730 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 55.71 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1732 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1732/2200 OR 78.76% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 147,392 contracts// volume  very poor//fell off a cliff!!/

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  174,373 contracts//  volume:  poor  //most of our traders have left for London

OCT 27 /2020

OCT. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT GOLD

OCT. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

INITIAL STANDING FOR OCT GOLD
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 0
OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
99 notice(s)
 9900 OZ
(0.3079 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
400 contracts
(4,000 oz)
.1244 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
34,425 notices
3,442,500 OZ
107.076 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

total deposit: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 withdrawals from  the customer account

total customer withdrawal:  nil  oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

total customer deposit: nil oz

We had 1  kilobar transactions  +

ADJUSTMENTS: 1 //

OUT OF BRINKS: DEALER TO CUSTOMER:  

i)Loomis 175,731.900 oz  (5466 kilobars

The front month of OCT registered a total of 499 contracts for a LOSS of 65 contracts. We had 154 notices filed on Monday so we gained A STRONG 89 contracts or 8,900 additional oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October.  I wrote this at the beginning of the month:” In gold we have not seen queue jumping start so early in the month. Thus you can bet the farm that throughout October, the total number of gold oz standing will increase from this level.”  Seems that I was right on this very important development.  We started the month at 95 tonnes and now so far we have 108.3 tonnes standing!!!! 

November LOST ONLY 133 contracts to stand at 1603.

NOVEMBER OI NUMBERS ARE NOT CONTRACTING MUCH. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE ANOTHER DANDY DELIVERY FOR GOLD FOR THIS UPCOMING DELIVERY MONTH.

The big December contract LOST 629 contracts DOWN to 439,099 contracts..

THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH OI STANDING FOR OCTOBER (108.320 tonnes). GENERALLY OCTOBER IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY(GOLDMAN SACHS) JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE ON OCTOBER FOR PHYSICAL METAL. GOLDMAN SACHS ONE OF THE LEADERS OF THE NEW LONDON LME EXCHANGE NEEDS THE GOLD INVENTORY FOR LIQUIDITY AND INITIAL CONTRIBUTION WITH OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS. THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MONTH AND OTHER MONTHS IS THAT THIS GOLD STANDING IN OCTOBER WILL LEAVE THE COMEX AND HEAD FOR LONDON.

We had  99 notices filed today for  9900 oz OR .307 TONNES.

FOR THE OCT 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from
JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 99  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (34,425) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT (499 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (99 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,482,500 OZ OR 108.320 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of Oct

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (34,425, x 100 oz +499 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (99) x 100 oz which equals 3,482,500 oz standing OR 108.320 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a OCT delivery month (a poor active delivery month).

We gained 89 contracts or an additional 8900 oz will stand on this side of the pond searching for metal.

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

593,649.694 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  18.465 TONNES ( A HUGE INCREASE FROM 10.6)

60,784.803 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA/ OCT 23:            1.8906 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

277,934.09 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.644 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   July 2/July 21               19.017 tonnes

67,289.041 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.092 tonnes JPM

total pledged gold:  1,609,895.918 oz                                     50.074 tonnes

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 497.76 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 108.32 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

registered gold:  17,613,023.120 oz  547.83 TONNES
pledged gold: 1,609,895.918 oz
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 16,003,128.0  (497.76 tonnes)
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  16,003,128.0 (497.76 tonnes)
total eligible gold:  19,919,641.338 oz (619.58 tonnes) 

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  37,532,664.459 oz 1,167.42 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1041.08 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

END

OCT 27/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1987.848 oz
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,196,350.566 oz
JPMorgan
Delaware
Brinks
Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
(0 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts
 10,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  2269 contracts

11,345,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposits into the dealer:

total dealer deposits: nil       oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 4 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i)into Delaware:  175,520.086 oz

ii) JPMorgan: 598,401.600  oz

iii) Into Loomis:  4844.100 oz

iv) Into Brinks: 417,584.780 oz

JPMorgan now has 190.210 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.81% of all official comex silver. (190.210 million/381.845 million

total customer deposits today 1,196,350.566   oz

we had 1 withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware:  1987.848 oz

total withdrawals; 221,913.460    oz

We had 4 adjustments: dealer to customer

i)Brinks;  1,136,441.448 oz

ii) CNT:  769,899.069 oz

iii)Int. Delaware: 345,169.660

iv) Manfra; 1,706,490.060

total adj 3,458,000.237 oz

Total dealer(registered) silver: 135/812 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  381.845 million oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

October had  2 notices outstanding for a LOSS of 2 contracts.  We had 0 notices served upon yesterday so we GAINED 0 contracts or NIL additional oz of silver will stand in this non active month of October

November saw a GAIN of 3 notices UP to 491 contracts.

December saw a LOSS of 8 contracts down to 127,762 contracts.

The total number of notices filed today for the OCT 2020. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2269 x 5,000 oz = 11,345,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT( 2) and the number of notices served upon today 0x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 2,269 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT  (2)- number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month .equals 11,355,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE MONTH.

We gained 0 contracts or nil additional oz will  stand for silver metal on this side of the pond as they refused to morph into a London based forwards.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 52,843 CONTRACTS // volume  poor//

FOR YESTERDAY 73,118  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME// fair

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 73,118 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.365 billion  OZ 52.2% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO- 2.78% ((OCT 27/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.20% to NAV:   (OCT 27/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/2.78%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.48 TRADING 18.92///NEGATIVE 2.88

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1263.80 TONNES

OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1263.80 TONNES

OCT 23/WITH GOLD  DOWN 80 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWL OF 3.8 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1265.55 TONNES

OCT 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1269.35 TONNES

OCT 21//WITH GOLD UP $17.50 DOLLARS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1269.93 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.92 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1269.93 TONNES

OCT 19WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1272.56 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16//WITH GOLD DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1276.06 MILLION OZ

OCT 15//WITH GOLD UP $1.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1277.65 TONNES

OCT 14/WITH GOLD UP $12.00 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1277.65 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $31.70 DOLLARS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1277.65 TONNES.

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.13 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1277.65 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $31.10 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 8/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.00 DOLLARS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.88 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1275.60 TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1275.60 TONNES

OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 9.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.19 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $19.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 30//WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD UP $19.10//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

/SEPT 28//WITH GOLD UP $14.30 DOLLARS: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

SEPT 25//WITH GOLD DOWN 410.80 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1266.84 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14TONNES.

SEPT 23//WITH GOLD DOWN $28.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 11.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1267.14 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50 TODAY, A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 18.98 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTER THE GLD///// INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.62TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $47.20 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 12.94 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1259.64TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $10.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT: 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.05 TODAY: A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1246.99 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1247.57 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

OCT 27/ GLD INVENTORY 1263.80 tonnes*

LAST;  932 TRADING DAYS:   +323.25 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 832 TRADING DAYS//+503.75  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ//

OCT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ

OCT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.977 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ.

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 652,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.171 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTOR RESTS AT 563.519 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 563.519 MILLION OZ.

OCT  15/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 563.519 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.652 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 563.519 MILLION OZ/

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 105 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.867 MILLION OZ..

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL 0F 1.396 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.867MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 560.263

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.303 MILLION OF FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 560.263 MILLION OZ//

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 466,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.566 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 51 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.100 MILLION OZ//

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A  DEPOSIT OF 11.984 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.100 MILLION OZ//

OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.116 MILLION OZ//

OCT 1/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.489 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.116 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 96 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 186,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.605 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER UP 86 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.791 MILLILON OZ//

SEPT 28//WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.769 MILLION OZ CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.791 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 TRANSACTIONS: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.28 MILION OZ FROM THE SLV AND A DEPOSIT OF 1.861 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.022 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 24//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23//WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.048 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.443 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.141 MILLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.491 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $2.43 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.862 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.350MILLION OZ//

SEPT 18. WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.537 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.212 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 16//WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.749 MILLION OZ//

OCT 26.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

561.194 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Interesting:  the total debt of emerging markets tops $4 trillion dollars according to the BIS

(Reuters/GATA)

Dollar debt of emerging markets tops $4 trillion for first time, BIS says

 Section: 

By Marc Jones
Reuters
Monday, October 26, 2020

LONDON — Dollar-denominated debt in emerging markets has risen past $4 trillion for the first time following a surge in issuance during the COVID-19 crisis, data from the Bank for International Settlements has shown.

The central bank umbrella group said a 14% jump in debt issuance during the April to June second quarter had driven a 7% year-on-year increase in broader dollar-denominated credit.

… 

Dollar borrowing costs have fallen since the Federal Reserve slashed its interest rates to almost zero this year, but emerging markets are often warned of the “original sin” of being unable to repay dollar debt when their own currencies fall.

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-markets-emerging-debt/emerging-market…

end

China reminds the world the the yuan will challenge the dollar for world supremacy.  China has all the  gold..it’s problem is the Chinese Communist Party\

Bloomberg News/GATA

China reminds markets that yuan’s challenge to dollar is still on

 Section: 

From Bloomberg News
via Yahoo News
Monday, October 26, 2020

Investors wondering how China plans to evolve its financial markets in the coming years need look no further than the commentary from the weekend’s Bund Summit in Shanghai for guidance.

People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang said that promoting broader use of the yuan will continue alongside the opening of markets. “The regulator’s main job is to reduce restrictions on the cross-border use of the currency, and let it take its own course,” he said.

Those comments were echoed by Zhu Jun, director general of the central bank’s international division. Policy makers will remove obstacles that stand in the way of broader use of the currency with steady liberalization of the capital account, increasing yuan exchange-rate flexibility and improving liquidity in the bond market, she said.

The comments by the two officials are a reminder that even though promoting the yuan hasn’t taken off as rapidly as expected since the idea was kicked off a decade ago, monetary officials are pressing ahead anyway. Success would give Chinese policy makers some things they have long dreamed about: the use of the yuan as a global reserve currency and a challenge to the greenback’s dominance in trade and finance. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-reminds-markets-yuan-challenge-0737…

END

Kitco’s Horwitz states that he sees nothing new to report in gold ignoring BIS intervention into the gold/silver market.

(Kitco/GATA)

Kitco’s Horwitz sees ‘nothing new to report’ in gold even as BIS intervention hits another record

 Section: 

12:10p ET Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

On Saturday GATA’s expert on the Bank for International Settlements, Robert Lambourne, reported that the bank’s surreptitious intervention in the gold market on behalf of its member central banks had reached another record high:

http://gata.org/node/20610

But on Monday Kitco’s gold and silver market analyst, Todd “Bubba” Horwitz, produced commentary headlined “There Is Nothing New to Report”:

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-10-26/There-is-nothing-new-to-re…

Now maybe Horwitz and Kitco meant “nothing new to report” in the sense that the BIS has been surreptitiously intervening in the gold market on behalf of its member central banks for many years, and the new record high level of intervention comes only a month after the last record high level.

But then Horwitz and Kitco seem never to have acknowledged the intervention of the BIS in the gold market, so their acknowledging it would be new to Kitco’s readers, and it could include some pretty interesting stuff, like the advertising the bank has done to let prospective central bank members know that its services include surreptitious interventions in the gold market:

http://www.gata.org/node/11012

Horwitz’s “Nothing New to Report” parody of expertise is almost as funny as the “Nothing to See Here” parody performed by Leslie Nielsen in “The Naked Gun”:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKnX5wci404

For there’s “nothing new to report” in the gold market only if you’re trying hard not to see anything.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

A good read.

(GATA)_

Have central banks really become net sellers of gold?

 Section: 

Or are financial journalism and market analysis merely failing again?

* * *

12:41p ET Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

According to the old saying, sometimes attributed to Mark Twain, there are three kinds of lies: ordinary lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Of course not all statistics are lies, but statistics always need to be challenged when the entities issuing them have an interest in spinning them a certain way, as government almost always has such an interest.

So while it is understandable, given the slovenliness and corruption of mainstream financial news organizations and market analysts, it is still disappointing that central bank gold statistics are routinely accepted without question, even as it is the longstanding policy of the primary compiler of these statistics, the International Monetary Fund, to fudge the numbers.

That is, according to the March 1999 secret report of the IMF’s executive staff, the agency’s central banks are authorized to conflate gold in their vaults with gold they are lending. The acknowledged purpose of this fudging is to prevent the world from discerning just how much central banks are manipulating the gold and currency markets:

http://www.gata.org/node/12016

Lately there have been many reports asserting that central banks have become net sellers of gold after many years of being net purchasers. For example:

https://www.ft.com/content/09b0a30f-2997-4e8a-92bf-f9eb61952b92

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4381477-central-banks-become-net-seller…

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/central-banks-net-sellers-of-gold-o…

But as that IMF report suggests, central banks are never more misleading than they are with gold. Indeed, the location and disposition of national gold reserves are secrets more sensitive than the location and disposition of nuclear weapons. For nuclear weapons can only destroy the world while governments understand that control of gold is control of the valuation of all capital, labor, goods, and services — control of nearly everything:

http://www.gata.org/node/13310

While the recent news stories and market commentaries assert that central banks are now net sellers of gold, the authors of those stories and commentaries don’t really know that. They know only what central banks report doing. And of course nobody questions this, though throughout the years central banks have both sold or leased gold and acquired gold secretly. China has gone as long as five years acquiring gold without reporting the acquisitions to the IMF.

The gold data is especially ripe for questioning now in light of the assertion a few days ago by London metals trader Andrew Maguire that China has begun bypassing the London bullion market in its acquisition of gold and has begun acquiring unrefined gold directly from mines in Africa and South America:

http://www.gata.org/node/20606

Maguire identified no sources for his assertion, but any financial news organization that wanted to get serious with its reporting about gold and central banking could easily pursue the issue by inquiring with central bankers, gold traders, gold mining companies, and customs agencies. Of course few such sources might want to go on the record, but some might comment confidentially.

At least news organizations and market analysts could acknowledge that while government statistics may not always be damned lies, they also aren’t always necessarily the truth either, especially on a subject as sensitive as gold.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

iii) Other physical stories:

Wow! this is a huge find; 67 million oz of gold reserves sound in the untapped Sukhoi Log deposit in Siberia

(zerohedge)

67 Million Ounces: World’s Biggest Gold Reserves Discovered Deep In Siberia

Last week the world’s largest stockpile of gold was revealed when Russia’s largest gold producer, Polyus PJSC, said its untapped Sukhoi Log deposit in Siberia holds the world’s biggest reserves.

company audit showed Sukhoi Log has 40 million ounces of proven reserves as measured by international JORC standards, with an average gold content of 2.3 grams per ton, according to Chief Executive Officer Pavel Grachev. Additionally, the estimated Mineral Resources for Sukhoi Log stand at 1,110 million tonnes, with an average grade of 1.9 g/t Au and containing 67 million ounces of gold as at 31 May 2020. This means that the monetary value of the estimated gold holdings is just over $127 billion at today’s prices.

That means the field – accounting for more than a quarter of Russian gold reserves – is bigger than Seabridge Gold Inc.’s KSM Project in Canada and Donlin Gold in Alaska.

“The estimate of the reserves is an important milestone in development of the field,” Grachev said in interview in Moscow.

Sukhoi Log, located in the isolated Irkutsk region deep in the heart of Siberia, was discovered by Soviet geologists in 1961 and studied in the 1970s. The government had long considered offloading the deposit, and in 2017 sold the field in an auction to Polyus and a state partner, which the mining company later bought out.

Some more details on Sukhoi Log:

  • The audit shows that as well as economically mineable reserves, the deposit has 67 million ounces of total resources, up from 63 million ounces previously estimated.
  • That figure may rise after more drilling and studies.
  • Main investment is due to start in 2023. Polyus has already started spending on infrastructure for the project, including co-investing with the government on the reconstruction of a local airport.

The world’s biggest gold deposits will likely remain untouched for the foreseeable future. According to Bloomberg, Polyus said earlier this year that it would focus on smaller projects and reducing its debt ratio in the coming years before developing the giant field. The company plans to announce details on expected production and investment at Sukhoi Log once a pre-feasibility study is ready by year-end. It previously said that costs could reach $2.5 billion, with annual output totaling about 1.6 million ounces, or just over $3 billion at current gold prices.

While developing giant deposits is typically a lengthy and costly process, the field may allow Polyus to boost annual output by at least 70%. Gold prices have rallied about 60% since the company purchased it, and reached a record in August as vast amounts of stimulus were pumped into economies to curb the damage from the coronavirus pandemic.

end

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.7065 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.6948   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 3.20 PTS OR .10%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP AT 131.59 PTS OR .53%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 8.54 POINTS OR 0.04%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 92.90/Euro FALLS TO 1.1718

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 104.62/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 38.89 and Brent: 40.70

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.58%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.71% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.17%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.29: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.94

3k Gold at $1902.50 silver at: 24.40   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 3/100 in roubles/dollar) 76.42

3m oil into the 38 dollar handle for WTI and 40 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 104.62 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9076 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0735 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.58%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.801% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.592%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 8.14..DEADLY!

Futures Rebound From Monday’s Plunge On Strong Earnings, Mega Merger

U.S. index futures and European stocks rebounded on Tuesday following the S&P 500’s worst day in a month as investors parsed through strong corporate earnings which offset Monday’s SAP shocker, while bracing for volatility ahead of Election Day, assessing rising coronavirus cases across the globe and conceding that a fiscal stimulus deal just won’t happen now that the Senate has closed for recess after rushing through the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett to the SCOTUS late on Monday night, which was also Hillary Clinton’s birthday. AMD’s $35 billion acqusition of Xilinx also helped boost trader optimism.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit three week lows on Monday as record number of new coronavirus infections in the United States and some European countries and a lack of agreement in Washington over the next U.S. fiscal stimulus raised worries about the economic recovery. The chances are “very, very slim,” Appropriations Chairman Richard Shelby said talking about a stimulus, pointing out the patently obvious. Differences between the two sides “have narrowed,” but “the more it narrows, the more conditions come up on the other side,” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters. Of course, Nancy Pelosi remains optimistic, her spokesman said, but she’s used similar language throughout three months of talks as she does not want to take the blame for the continued gridlock.

Also on Monday, the VIX spiked to its highest closing level in nearly two months on “concerns” about President Donald Trump’s unexpected victory or the uncertain election outcome we first reported on Sunday night. As we also reported, while Joe Biden leads the official polls, the race is much tighter in battleground states which determine the election outcome.

In premarket trading, Drugmaker Eli Lilly fell 4% after it reported a fall in quarterly profit. Industrial companies 3M Co and Caterpillar Inc were also slightly lower after results. Investors are looking forward to results from Apple, Amazon.com, Alphabet and Facebook Inc in an earnings-heavy week as the technology giants have managed to stand out during the coronavirus pandemic.  Chipmaker Xilinx soared after AMD announced a $35BN takeover offer, while Merck climbed after the drugmaker boosted its guidance.

At 8am S&P 500 E-minis rose 0.47% to 3,409.5 points.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index erased most of its decline after earlier heading toward its lowest close since June on coronavirus lockdown fears. France’s benchmark CAC 40 Index underperformed other major European stock indexes on Tuesday, amid concerns that tougher restrictions may be introduced in the country as soon as tomorrow to curb a spike in coronavirus cases. Declines in miners and energy firms offset positive earnings from banking powerhouses HSBC Holdings and Banco Santander, which both signaled a brighter outlook for dividends. Following two tumultuous quarter, HSBC said it would consider paying a 2020 dividend after the bank unveiled a better-than-expected third quarter profit on lower provisions for bad loans. The bank on Tuesday reported a 36 per cent year-on-year drop in pre-tax profits to $3.1bn for the third-quarter, which was above analysts’ forecasts. Noel Quinn, HSBC’s chief executive, labelled the results “promising.” Energy giant BP Plc warned of many challenges ahead as the pace of recovery in oil demand remained uncertain. Meanwhile, Europe took a step closer to the strict rules imposed during the initial wave of the pandemic, with leaders struggling to regain control of the spread while confronting growing opposition to restrictions.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, led by the energy and finance sectors, after falling in the last session. Most markets in the region were down, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropping 1.7% and South Korea’s Kospi falling 0.6%, while India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index increased 0.5%. The Topix was little changed, with Nintendo climbing and Nidec slipping.

As Bloomberg notes, with time effectively over to finish an aid package before Americans vote, investors are looking for market catalysts later on Tuesday from data and earnings. Durable-goods orders and consumer confidence reports are due, as well as results from Microsoft Corp. and AMD after market.

In rates, Treasuries were steady overnight, holding Monday session gains despite gains in S&P 500 e-minis amid poor volumes, trading around 60% of recent average during Asia, early Europe. Preliminary open interest data shows some unwind of long-end short positions into Monday’s rally. Yields were mixed, although within a basis point of Monday’s close across the curve; 10-year steady at around 0.80%, trading inline with bunds and outperforming gilts by ~1bp. Treasury auctions kick-off with $54b 2-year note sale today, followed by 5- and 7- year sales Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

On Monday, BlackRock strategists downgraded U.S. Treasuries and upgraded their inflation-linked peers ahead of the U.S. election on a growing likelihood of significant fiscal expansion. They said Covid infections in Europe threaten to derail a fragile recovery as they recommended investors hold a neutral position on bunds to hedge a downturn.

“As Covid infections have picked up, the focus on further policy response has shifted to more monetary easing including additional asset purchases,” said strategists Mike Pyle, Scott Thiel and Beata Harasim.

In Fx, a gauge of the dollar’s strength edged lower after Monday’s bounce, while the euro and the pound were little changed; cable slipped earlier with strategists predicting limited gains in the currency on a Brexit trade-deal breakthrough. The Norwegian krone and the Japanese yen led G-10 currency gains, while the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona weakened the most. China’s currency weakened after Reuters reported the country’s central bank asked lenders to suspend a key factor used to calculate the yuan’s daily reference rate.

Elsewhere, crude oil nudged higher while gold remains largely unchanged.

In terms of data today we will get the preliminary September durable goods orders and nondefence capital goods orders ex-air. There will also be August’s FHFA house price index, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and the October Conference Board consumer confidence reading. The Fed’s Kaplan is the only major speaker on the docket. Lastly the second major week of earnings ramps up as Microsoft, Novartis, Pfizer, Merck & Co., Eli Lilly & Co, Caterpillar, HSBC and BP all report.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 3,3400.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 354.57
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 175.21
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 581.84
  • Nikkei down 0.04% to 23,485.80
  • Topix down 0.09% to 1,617.53
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 24,787.19
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,254.32
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 40,372.74
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.7% to 6,051.02
  • Kospi down 0.6% to 2,330.84
  • Brent futures up 0.7% to $40.75/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,900.30
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.07
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at -0.581%
  • Euro down 0.04% to $1.1805
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to 0.536%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 0.184%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The world’s biggest money manager is shorting the dollar on expectations that unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus will prolong its losses — regardless of who wins the U.S. election
  • Turkey’s banking regulator took another step to slow lending after a massive credit boom contributed to a currency rout
  • U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for a second poll-defying victory is relying on a hallmark of his first — raucous campaign rallies that Trump sees as a crucial sign of voter enthusiasm but that pollsters say may only be cementing his defeat
  • More than 50 of Boris Johnson’s own Conservative members of Parliament have demanded a clear route out of lockdown for parts of northern Britain that helped give his party a majority in last year’s election. In a letter to the prime minister, the MPs warned that his pandemic strategy of targeting local areas with restrictions is disproportionately damaging the economies of northern regions of the country

Asian equity markets resumed the weak performance seen across global peers amid the ongoing risk-averse themes including the worsening COVID-19 pandemic, tougher lockdown restrictions in Europe and the continued US stimulus stalemate which culminated in Wall St’s worst day in more than a month. ASX 200 (-1.7%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) were lower with the Australian benchmark the underperformer amid losses across all sectors and the declines led by energy as the COVID-19 situation did no favours for the demand outlook, while sentiment in Tokyo was also lacklustre but with downside limited by a relatively stable currency and the KOSPI (-0.9%) briefly nursed opening losses after better than expected GDP data and stronger revenue from Kia Motors which drove shares in the automaker higher by nearly double-digits. Hang Seng (-0.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (Unch.) were both lacklustre after data showed Industrial Profit growth in September moderated to 10.1% from 19.1% and due to lingering US-China tensions after the US government approved potential USD 2.4bln in arms sale to Taiwan despite an earlier announcement by China’s Foreign Ministry to impose sanctions on US entities that partake in arms sales to Taiwan, although there were some bright spots with HSBC shares rallying around 5% on return from the lunch break following better than expected Q3 results and with Tencent also buoyed after US Appeals Court rejected an attempt by the Justice Department to impose an immediate ban on WeChat. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded higher as prices conformed to the mild upside seen in T-notes and with demand also spurred by the risk aversion, although gains were capped by the 2 year auction results which were marginally weaker than prior.

Top Asian News

  • HSBC Flags Conservative Return to Dividends on Profit Beat
  • Hong Kong Police Arrest Activist Seeking U.S. Asylum, SCMP Says
  • Dubai in Talks on London Air-Travel Agreement to Boost Demand

Ahead of the cash open, index futures indicated a positive open in Europe with the DAX Dec’20 contract at one stage showing gains of 0.7% in what was initially a paring of yesterday’s heavy losses. However, as cash products opened, indices faced a bout of selling pressure with the DAX Dec’20 contract now lower by 0.5%; Eurostoxx 50 cash is down -0.6% – notably, both are off session lows. In terms of fundamental drivers, downbeat sentiment from yesterday has been carried over into today’s session as the spread of COVID across the region saps investor risk appetite. One of the more concerning updates this morning has comes from Germany with the economy minister warning that the number of new infections in the nation are rising exponentially and will likely have 20k daily new infections by the end of the week (on October 24th it posted 14.7k new infections). From a sectoral standpoint, banking names have bucked the downbeat trend this morning with HSBC (+6.6%) one of the Stoxx 600’s best performers following Q3 earnings. HSBC exceeded expectations for revenues, net income and adj. pretax profits, whilst noting that it will reduce 2022 costs by more than the initially targeted USD 31bln. Santander (+3.6%) are also firmer on the session and providing support to peripheral banks after the Co. reported a marked improvement in Q3 earnings, compared to Q2 and noted a 14% decline in quarterly provisions. Other large cap earnings include BP (+1.6%), who trade firmer on the session after reporting an unexpected Q3 profit of USD 86mln with results underpinned by a lack of significant write-offs and a recovery in the broader oil & gas environment. Despite opening higher, Novartis (-1.3%) have drifted lower throughout the session in the wake of Q3 earnings, which saw revenues miss analyst estimates

Top European News

  • Merkel Wants to Shutter Restaurants in Battle Against Virus
  • Italy Readies New Virus Relief Package Amid Mounting Protests
  • Lockdowns Loom for European Governments Running Out of Options
  • Novartis Lifts 2020 Forecast as Drugmaker Counters Covid Impact

In FX, although the Dollar is somewhat mixed vs major counterparts, the DXY looks firmly anchored around 93.000 and eclipsed Monday’s high amidst underlying safe-haven demand when EU stocks lost their initial/early recovery momentum due to ongoing COVID contagion, exacerbated by Germany’s Economy Minister warning of the pandemic’s exponential resurgence that may see the daily rate of new cases reach 20k by the end of this week. The index has stalled at 99.137 for now with some technical resistance in the form of a double top around 93.100 perhaps weighing, but the latest pull-back was relatively shallow, at 92.875 vs 92.784 yesterday and last week’s 92.469 base.

  • CAD/NZD – Both bucking the overall trend, as the Loonie rebounds from sub-1.3200 alongside a partial/mild bounce in crude prices and the clock ticks down to Wednesday’s BoC policy meeting. Meanwhile, crosswinds continue to keep the Kiwi afloat close to 0.6700 and 1.0650 vs its US and Aussie rivals in wake of broadly in line NZ trade data.
  • JPY/AUD/EUR/CHF/GBP – All rangebound against the Greenback and within familiar confines, with the Yen meandering between 104.90-67 and well inside decent option expiries at 104.25 (1 bn) and the 105.00 strike (1.8 bn). Back down under, the Aussie remains comfortably above 0.7100 ahead of Q3 CPI overnight and in wake of supportive comments from RBA Assistant Governor Debelle seeing signs of growth in Q3. Conversely, the Euro, Franc and Sterling seem more precarious near round numbers (1.1800, 0.9100 and 1.3000 respectively) as the coronavirus spreads and the former eyes 1.2 bn expiry interest in close proximity (1.2 bn from 1.1800 to 1.1805), while the Pound awaits Brexit developments.
  • SCANDI/EM – Not much sign of a positive reaction to Sweden turning a trade deficit around in September to show a wider surplus, as Eur/Sek pivots 10.3300, but the modestly firmer tone in oil is capping Eur/Nok around 10.9000 and well off recent 11.0000+ peaks. Elsewhere, the Yuan has found some support beneath 6.7100 vs the Dollar after a firmer than forecast PBoC midpoint fix and hardly responding to the request made for banks to neutralise the counter-cyclical factor in the formula, but the Lira’s travails rumble on as fresh all time lows are hit below 8.1600.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are holding in positive territory of around USD 0.30/bbl as the session stands in-spite of the deterioration in risk-sentiment post the European cash equity open. The current relative resilience is largely a factor of Hurricane Zeta which as of yesterday had shuttered around 16% of Gulf of Mexico oil production and 6% of gas output. The BSEE will provide another update later in the session at 18:00GMT/14:00ET which could well see further impact as the NHC believes the storm will re-strengthen as it progress to the Northern side of the Gulf prior to making landfall. Additionally, it’s worth highlighting that yesterday’s BSEE survey only focused on 7 companies in the Gulf compared to the survey’s sample contained in excess of 20 companies during Hurricane Delta earlier in the month. Elsewhere, post-earnings this morning BP noted that the Hurricane has shut down 20/30k BPD of its oil & gas production thus far. Storm updates aside, the sessions scheduled focus point explicitly for crude is the private inventory release which is expected to show a build of around 1.1mln barrels for the prior week as the effect of Delta diminishes but Zeta is yet to be included in the survey period. Moving to metals, spot gold has come under pressure this morning as while the metal isn’t currently suffering from USD strength as the DXY has dropped into negative territory it has failed to benefit from traditional safe-haven demand with silver & JPY seemingly receiving some of this allure.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.35%, prior 0.6%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 1.9%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.4%, prior 1.5%
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 1.0%
  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20- City MoM SA, est. 0.5%, prior 0.55%; S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 4.2%, prior 3.95%
  • 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 102, prior 101.8; Present Situation, prior 98.5; Expectations, prior 104
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 17.5, prior 21

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Nice to be back luxuriating in the home office again after a few days of high intensity childminding over part of half-term. The drive through safari park was the highlight with lions, tigers and cheetahs brushing up to the car and monkeys climbing on top of it. The last time I went on safari was during a school cricket tour to Kenya in 1991. We were told before the trip not to take expensive cameras as the risk was they would get stolen. I didn’t have an alternative option anyway as I only had a basic one I’d bought for 10 pounds with my paper round money. However some of the other kids ignored this and brought cameras with big telescopic lenses. As such with my photos you were unable to tell whether the orangish blobs were rocks or lions whereas with my friends you could tell whether the lions had recently flossed or not. 29 years later my trusty iPhone got me some very decent pictures even if it did cost more than 10 pounds.

Looking at the finance pages on my iPhone this morning, it’s quite clear that global equities have taken a large step back at the start of this week after a weekend that saw covid-19 cases hit new highs in the US and fresh restrictions seemingly building daily in Europe. The S&P 500 finished down -1.86% last night, its worst daily performance since 23 September as the US saw its highest weekly cases of the pandemic so far. Sentiment was not helped by the ever dropping probability of a fiscal stimulus agreement prior to the election. Nearly 92% of stocks in the S&P were lower by the end of the session, led by declines in the energy sector (-3.47%) as oil prices fell sharply. WTI and Brent crude fell -3.24% and -3.14% respectively, as the global demand outlook worsened. Tech hardware (-0.58%) and Biotech (-0.85%) were among the more resilient industries, however the NASDAQ was still down -1.64%. The VIX rose +4.9pts to 32.5pts in its biggest move since 3 September.

Overnight Asian markets have tracked Wall Street’s move though the declines are more modest. The Nikkei (-0.24%), Hang Seng (-0.97%), Shanghai Comp (-0.37%), Kospi (-0.50%) and Asx (-1.70%) are all down. Meanwhile, in a sign of abating risk off sentiment, the US dollar index is down -0.11% this morning and futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.18%. HSBC is trading up +1.86% after reporting better than expected earnings as the bank paired back its expected credit losses. They also said that they are considering paying a conservative dividend for 2020 contingent on economic conditions in early 2021, subject to regulatory consultation. In terms of overnight data, South Korea’s Q3 GDP print came in better than expectations at 1.9% qoq (vs. 1.3% qoq expected).

Earlier European equities, and the DAX (-3.71%) in particular, pulled back strongly on news that SAP was lowering its revenue forecast for the full year of 2020 and that the pandemic could weigh on demand into the first half of next year. The largest tech company in Europe was down -22.20% and is now -18.55% YTD. Contrast this to Apple – the largest US tech company – which is +56.7% YTD with the NYFANG index +76.9% against Europe’s tech index at -8.0% YTD.

Every sector in the Stoxx 600 (-1.81%) declined led by Technology (-7.37%) and Travel & Leisure (-3.29%). The latter was heavily influenced by the new restrictions across the continent, which outweighed the positive vaccine news from Astrazenca and Johnson and Johnson that we highlighted yesterday morning. After the positive vaccine news yesterday, our CoTD highlighted the work of our colleague Robin Winkler, looking at different R0 and efficacy scenarios to see what is required for herd immunity. We likely remain multiple quarters away from a mass rollout however the upcoming efficacy data should in theory have a major impact on life and markets going forward. As a benchmark the FDA has set its threshold as 50% – similar to the flu vaccine. See the CoTD here to see how much of the population would have to be vaccinated if the efficacy was only 50%, as well as the link to Robin’s note.

We are now just one week away from Election Day in the US. However, over 58.6 million ballots have already been cast across the country. This is more early votes (both in-person and mail-in) than in all of 2016, and there is still a week to go. Early indications point to a possible record turnout, if this pace continues, especially given the number of “new and infrequent” voters. The AP reported as many as 26.3% of Georgia’s early voters and just over 30% of Texas’s early voters are either a new or infrequent voter, which points to just how much important some feel this election is.

National polls have tightened slightly in the last 2 weeks. Former Vice President Biden led by as much +10.7% in fivethirtyeight.com’s polling average back on October 17 but that has come in to +9.4% as of today. This is still a substantial lead and Biden still holds the polling advantage in key battleground states such as Michigan (+8.3%), Wisconsin (+7.1%) and Pennsylvania (+5.1%). The fivethirtyeight.com model gives Biden an 87% chance of winning the Electoral College and therefore the election.

Lastly on US politics, late last night the Senate confirmed Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court of the US, thereby giving the court a 6-3 conservative majority. The vote was 52-48 and mostly along party lines, with one Republican, Senator Susan Collins, joining Democrats in opposition.

Coronavirus cases remain in focus as more regions of Europe contemplate or enact further restrictions to quell the current wave. France reported over 250,000 new cases over the last week and nearly 70% of ICU beds in the Paris region are occupied, according to local authorities. President Macron is expected to convene a defense cabinet meeting later today to address the issue, which may lead to further restrictions. This comes as the head of the scientific council that advises the French government on the pandemic said the situation is moving towards that of early March, and that the second wave will probably be worse than the first one. The Netherlands passed 300,000 confirmed cases yesterday, after over 10.3k new cases yesterday. Dutch Prime Minister Rutte has said he wants to wait for the new data over the coming days before making a final call on further restrictions for the country.

Elsewhere, German Chancellor Angela Merkel convened her task force yesterday and it was reported she plans to present a “lockdown light” plan which would see bars, restaurants and public events shut in order to minimise a second wave. Furthermore, shops would remain open and schools would not have to close under the new plan. Meanwhile, Italy’s new rules went into effect yesterday after Prime Minister Conte approved the government’s plan to limit hours for bars and restaurants as well as shutting down gyms and entertainment venues. Italians have also been asked not to travel under the new restrictions, which are currently in place until November 24. Meanwhile on top of the national curfew that was set in Spain, the country’s parliament approved an extension of the state of emergency until May 9, in order for the Prime Minister to avoid continually seeking approval to implement further restrictions.

In the US, the rolling 7-day Covid-19 case count hit a new high with over 480,000 cases. This surpasses the high of 472,083 we saw back in late July. While testing capacity is higher, the number of newly confirmed weekly cases as a percent of weekly US tests is over 6% for the first time since August and has been rising sharply over the last 2-3 weeks. On therapeutics, Eli Lilly has confirmed overnight that its US clinical trial of experimental antibody therapy will end as data suggested that the treatment is unlikely to help hospitalised patients recover from advanced forms of the virus. The stock is down -1% in after-hours trading. In other worrying news, according to a large Imperial College London covid study, the proportion of people in England with antibodies dropped by more than a quarter in the space of three months. This will raise concerns about how long people can go without risking being reinfected.

European risk sentiment was not helped by the German October Ifo business climate indicator, which fell to 92.7 (93.0 expected). This is -0.5pts down from last month and was the first monthly decline since April. In the US, the September reading of the Chicago Fed national activity index missed expectations by quite a bit, down to 0.27 (0.73 expected) from an upwardly revised 1.11 last month. A reading above ‘0’ translates to above-trend growth, indicating that while growth is positive it has slowed significantly. Similarly, new home sales dropped to 959k from 994k the month prior, and well below the 1,025k homes expected. Lastly, the October Dallas Fed manufacturing index beat expectations at 19.8 (vs 13.5 expected) in its highest reading since October 2018.

In terms of data today we will get Euro Area M3 money supply for September as well as slew of US data. In hard data there is the preliminary September durable goods orders and nondefence capital goods orders ex-air. There will also be August’s FHFA house price index, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and the October Conference Board consumer confidence reading. The Fed’s Kaplan is the only major speaker on the docket. Lastly the second major week of earnings ramps up as Microsoft, Novartis, Pfizer, Merck & Co., Eli Lilly & Co, Caterpillar, HSBC and BP all report.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.20 PTS OR .10%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.59 PTS OR .53%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 155.22 POINTS OR 0.61%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.73%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil DOWN TO 38.89 dollars per barrel for WTI and 40.70 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7065. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6948 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA/

China is trying to stem the yuan’s recent rise: it has now unexpectedly suspends counter cyclical factors in the fixing of the yuan

(zerohedge)

Yuan Slides After China Unexpectedly Suspends “Counter-Cyclical Factor” In FX Fixing

China keeps telling the world to stop buying the yuan, and the world keeps refusing to listen.

Just over two weeks after Beijing made it easier to short the yuan after the PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio for FX derivative sales from 20% to 0%, a move which was “an attempt to moderate the yuan’s increase”, and which Goldman said “likely signals the PBOC’s discomfort with the recent rapid appreciation of CNY”, yet which failed to lead to a sustainable drop in the yuan, On Tuesday China lobbed another shot across the bow of the increasingly strong yuan when a statement on website of China Foreign Exchange Trade System announced that some banks that contribute to the yuan’s daily reference rate have recently halted the use of the counter-cyclical factor (CCF).

The confirmation followed a Reuters reports that the PBoC has asked banks to neutralize the counter-cyclical factor which is typically used when the currency is weakening at a pace that is uncomfortable for the central bank i.e. effectively removing it in the midpoint fixing. Under the reported tweak, lenders would have more room to submit quotes for a weaker fixing and guide the currency lower in the spot market, which is precisely Beijing’s goal in light of the recent yuan appreciation. The move followed sellside analyst reports in recent months that as a result of the recent strength in the Yuan, the CCF had not been used.

As a reminder, the counter-cyclical factor was introduced by the PBOC on May 26, 2017  to reduce exchange-rate volatility while undermining efforts to increase the role of market forces. At the time, the move was seen as Beijing “moving the goalposts” in its bid to reduce yuan volatility, to punish currency manipulators (read Yuan shorts) and limit capital outflows (the currency had weakened for three straight years, triggering draconian capital controls and the surge of bitcoin). The CCF was then suspended in January 2018 when the yuan surged, only to be reinstalled later that year when the Yuan slumped again.

And now the CCF has been re-suspended again.

According to Citi FX trader Charmaine Cheok this is “yet another signal from the central bank that they are loosening the reins on the currency and allowing for more flexibility. I reckon the reason the market is moving higher on spot now is merely a reflection of positioning, this announcement doesn’t have any immediate impact on spot.”

Other trading desks agreed, noting that this is in line with the policy direction to allow the FX to be more market driven and ties into the goal to promote RMB internationalization. Or at least allowing it to be market driven when it is strong, hoping the recent deflationary appreciation in the yuan will end.

In any case, now that China has confirmed the move, strategists expect higher volatility of the CNH/CNY given the CCF typically dampens stronger USD impact on fixing more than the appreciation side, even if the actual impact could be relatively limited.

While the market impact was muted indeed, the offshore yuan fell after the Reuters report, dropping as much as 0.34% to 6.7234 a dollar afterward. The currency has rallied 6.9% from a low in May and last week reached a two-year high.

And now that the PBOC has both cut reserves and re-suspended the CCF in hopes of weakening the yuan, and seemingly failed…

 end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE

Wow! this is high!  79% of all French believe that Islam has declared war on France

(zerohedge)

79% Of French Believe Islamism Has “Declared War” On Their Country; New Poll Finds

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A new poll conducted after the beheading of a teacher in Paris has found that 79% of French people believe Islamism has “declared war” on their country.

The survey was carried out by polling firm Ifop following the jihadist murder of geography teacher Samuel Paty, who was targeted for showing pupils cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad during a lesson about freedom of expression.

The murder prompted numerous mass protest marches across the country in defense of free speech and against the Islamic takeover of France.

“87% of French people say they agree with the fact that secularism is now in danger in France, and 79% that Islamism has declared war on the nation and the Republic,” reports Ifop.

The poll also found that the political leader the French people have the most trust in when it comes to combating Islamism is Marine Le Pen.

A previous poll also found that the French are becoming increasingly hostile to allowing more immigrants to enter their country, with 64% believing migrants have a negative impact, while 60% believe welcoming them is no longer feasible due to cultural differences.

As we previously highlighted, disorder in France’s migrant dominated suburbs has become so chronic that some are calling for the military to be sent in.

France’s feared banlieues are suburbs on the edge of major cities controlled by large groups of Muslim gangs who attack police officers, fire crews and ambulance workers who venture into the area.

Earlier this year, French intellectual Eric Zemmour said the problem was so bad that the only option was to “reconquer by force.”

Over 250 French people have been killed as a result of Islamist attacks since 2015.

END
FRANCE/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

France Weighs Return To Lockdown As Russia Refuses Despite Spike In COVID-19 Cases, Deaths: Live Updates

Already Tuesday morning we are seeing some headlines out of Europe that portend more headlines that could spook markets later on in the session. For starters, a second Bavarian county has declared a partial lockdown. Rottal-Inn has recorded well over 200 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants over the past week, well above the threshold of 50  new infections per 100,000 people at which new measures are required.

On Tuesday, the Robert Koch Institute reported 11,409 new infections, bringing Germany’s total to 455,829. Another 42 people died on Tuesday, bringing the country’s overall virus death toll to 10,098. Hospitals and ICUs are filling up again and German Chancellor Angela Merkel has expressed grave concern, saying the current restrictions are not strong enough to slow down the spread of the virus, as the country widely expects her government to impose more nationwide rules shortly. These could include closing restaurants and stopping live events.

Merkel will meet with the state governors Wednesday. The German press has reported that new restrictions are expected, including taking school closures and restrictions on nonessential businesses nation-wide. It comes after Italy, Spain and a host of other European countries imposed new COVID-inspired restrictions over the weekend.

But looking ahead, all eyes are on France, where a government minister recently warned the pace of infections might be as high as 100k/day, 2x the official total. On Wednesday, President Emmanuel Macron, Prime Minister Jean Castex (Macron’s virus point man) and other top officials are meeting to discuss new nationwide restrictions, possibly including another brief lockdown, something that Macron has said would be ‘unavoidable’ if the condition deteriorates beyond a certain point.

The Local published a handy guide to the different types of measures reportedly under consideration, which, at this point, is either localized lockdowns (Paris, Lyon and Marseille and possibly other cities and metro areas) or a nationwide closure (text below courtesy of the Local).

1. Total lockdown

The first option is a total, nationwide lockdown such as the one France imposed in March. Back then, the whole country was confined to their homes and only allowed out for short periods to run essential errands such as grocery shopping, medical appointments and walking the dog.

French political commentators say this is the least likely scenario because of the high economic and psychological costs that would entail.

“I think that Macron is desperate to avoid another complete lockdown – for economic reasons but also for reasons of public order. A second “confinement” would be resisted much more widely than the first,” The Local’s political commentator John Lichfield said.

Delfraissy said the main goals of the government was to protect France’s elderly and vulnerable and maintain economic activity, while at the same time reducing the spread of the virus.

If the government were to impose a new lockdown, it would likely be adapted to the lessons drawn from this spring, avoiding to close down parts of society where the health gains were small compared to the economic and social costs – such as primary schools.

“It would probably allow for a certain level of educational activity and a certain number of economic activity,” Delfraissy said, adding that this kind of lockdown “could be set in place for a shorter period of time if it were to be introduced now.”

He also said this kind of lockdown would likely be followed by a period of curfew such as the one in place now.

2. Local lockdowns

Another option is to continue the government’s strategy to adapt measures to local conditions and introduce lockdowns in the country’s hardest hit areas.

This would target areas with high levels of spread and areas where hospital struggle to cope with the pressure of new Covid-19 patients, such as Paris, Marseille and Lyon.

“I’d rather have local lockdowns now than a nationwide lockdown at Christmas,” Damien Abad, parliament chief for the rightwing opposition Les Republicains, told France Info radio.

3. Weekend lockdowns

The third option would be a lighter and adapted version of lockdown, which could include measures such as a weekend confinement and an earlier curfew than the 9pm curfew currently in place in roughly half of the country.

“This would be much tougher than the curfew currently in place,” Delfraissy said about that option.

Such a strategy has received support from a group of doctors in Lyon, who called for a 7pm curfew and a weekend lockdown.

“The situation is serious and we cannot afford to take half-measures any longer,” they said in a press statement.

This strategy could also entail closing secondary schools, high schools and universities, such as suggested by Antoine Flahault, Director of the Institute for Global Health at the University of Geneva, which monitors the development of Covid-19 in the world.

We already have taken lockdown measures, they might be sufficient,” he told French media.

* * *

Meanwhile, France’s small businesses are understandably anxious. On Tuesday morning, the CPME confederation of small and medium-sized businesses warned that a partial or total lockdown could risk provoking an economic collapse. Companies are “much more fragile than in March” and many, especially the smallest, would be incapable of taking on additional debt, the CPME says in statement on Tuesday “We would risk seeing a collapse in the French economy, a sort of unprecedented third wave, this time an economic one,” CPME says

Russia is balking at reintroducing tough measures even as its outbreak explodes and deaths hit record highs.  Masks will be compulsory in some public places starting on Wednesday, but the authorities are avoiding action that could hurt businesses. The consumer health watchdog recommended on Tuesday to close bars and restaurants from 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. amid reports that many hospitals are at capacity. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier the authorities are confident they can handle the latest wave without a lockdown (Source: Bloomberg).

Eli Lilly said last night that it would be ending clinical trials for patients in a hospital setting after NIH researchers found that BAMLANIVIMAB, one of the antibody therapeutics the company is working on, doesn’t help to improve hospitalized patients recovery from advanced stages of the virus, although Eli Lilly noted that all other studies related to its treatment are ongoing. It’s the latest setback to therapeutics. The FDA recently gave remdesivir, a drug developed by Gilead originally to treat ebola, the greenlight for widespread use, even as studies show it has little to no benefit (Newswires).

The French government is reportedly mulling a localized lockdowns for the Paris, Lyon and Marseille metro areas, which would include 7pm curfew, a public transport shutdown and closing non-essential shops, while reports noted that a three-week lockdown could start from Friday evening with the details to be announced on Wednesday (Source: Bild).

Germany Economy Minister says that the number of new infections in the nation are rising exponentially and will likely have 20k daily new infections by the end of the week (Newswires).

Imperial College London/Ipsos MORI study among 365k randomly selected adults which conducted tests at home, showed that 4.4% had antibodies in September vs. 6.0% in June which suggested the antibody immunity may not last over time in some of those that were infected. (Newswires) Russia is to impose new COVID-19 restrictions (Source: RIA Novosti).

END

UK//COVID 19
As expected, a UK study finds that COVID 19 immunity degrades within 6 months.  Seems that Luc Montagner theory on the COVID is accurate. It is man made and thus unstable and will morph into the common cold.  There is no cure for the common cold..immunity on a vaccine does not last.\(zerohedge)

‘Gold Standard’ UK Study Finds COVID-19 Immunity Degrades Within 6 Months

Scientists have now obtained evidence that one source described as virtual confirmation that COVID-19 antibodies are seasonal, meaning that those with particularly weak immune responses might be susceptible to reinfection, while most people infected with COVID-19 will see their antibody levels degrade over a period of 4-6 months.

Most MSM outlets framed it as a setback for the scientists behind the Great Barrington Declaration. One scientist said this finding could mean that vaccines create a more potent immune response to the virus than the natural response. At the very least, it’s a higher bar for vaccines, and could mean a more lucrative outcome if people need to be vaccinated at the start of every “COVID” season.

At the very least, Dr. Fauci has said the first vaccines should be ready for mass inoculation within six months.

The study, carried out by researchers at Imperial College of London, found that antibody prevalence fell by a quarter, from 6% of the population around the end of June to just 4.4% in September, down from levels seen earlier this year.

Immunity has been a hot topic ever since a Dutch woman became the first patient to pass away after being reinfected with the virus.

Th sample size used in the ICL study was massive: some 365,000 randomly selected adults were tested in three waves.

Large, randomized trials like this are considered a “gold standard” in scientific research.

Notably, there was no change in the antibody levels of health-care workers, a sign that repeated exposure potentially can bolster one’s immunity to the virus.

Here’s more on the study from Reuters.

Scientists at Imperial College London have tracked antibody levels in the British population following the first wave of COVID-19 infections in March and April.

Their study found that antibody prevalence fell by a quarter, from 6% of the population around the end of June to just 4.4% in September. That raises the prospect of decreasing population immunity ahead of a second wave of infections in recent weeks that has forced local lockdowns and restrictions.

Although immunity to the novel coronavirus is a complex and murky area, and may be assisted by T cells, as well as B cells that can stimulate the quick production of antibodies following re-exposure to the virus, the researchers said the experience of other coronaviruses suggested immunity might not be enduring.

“We can see the antibodies and we can see them declining and we know that antibodies on their own are quite protective,” Wendy Barclay, head of the Department of Infectious Disease at Imperial College London told reporters.

On the balance of evidence I would say, with what we know for other coronaviruses, it would look as if immunity declines away at the same rate as antibodies decline away, and that this is an indication of waning immunity at the population level.”

Those for whom COVID-19 was confirmed with a gold standard PCR test had a less pronounced decline in antibodies, compared to people who had been asymptomatic and unaware of their original infection.

There was no change in the levels of antibodies seen in healthcare workers, possibly due to repeated exposure to the virus.

After insisting for months that there was no evidence of reinfection with COVID-19, even after the first evidence of reinfection emerged, the WHO said via spokesman Tarik Jasarevic that uncertainty over how long immunity would last meant that “acquiring this collective immunity just by letting the virus run through the population is not really an option.”

Once again,  scientists who signed the Great Barrington Declaration are proposing that we end lockdowns, and rely on other less restrictive ways to fight the virus.

The WHO issued a recommendation of its own recently claiming that lockdowns place disproportionate stress on the poor, and argued that there are better ways to combat the virus.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

SYRIA/RUSSIA/TURKEY

Belligerent Erdogan gets whacked again:  Russian airstrikes obliterate a Turkish backed rebel camp in Idlib. Turkish lira falls to 8.14 to one uSA dollar.  So much for the ceasefire between Turkey and Russia

(zerohedge)

Russian Airstrikes Obliterate Turkish-Backed ‘Rebel’ Camp In Idlib, Killing Over 60

Though Syria has long fallen out of featured coverage in international media, it appears the war to take back Idlib province is heating up once again. Recall that on prior occasions over the past few years Washington has threatened some level of military intervention each time Syria and Russia prepared to finally liberate the northwest region from al-Qaeda and Turkish-backed jihadists (especially connected with ‘rebel’ claims of chemical weapons usage by government forces).

On Monday Russian jets pounded a camp full of Turkish-backed militants in Idlib, killing at least 60. Some media sources are reporting possibly over 70 killed and 100+ injured, making it one of the single deadliest airstrikes of the entire almost decade long war.

Russian Ministry file image: Russian jets over Idlib

“The strike targeted the group Faylaq al-Sham, whose base is near several refugee camps in the heavily populated province of Idlib,” The New York Times reports.

And further according to the report, it’s likely to escalate tensions with Turkey, given not only Faylaq al-Sham works closely with Turkey’s military and intelligence, but also given the strike happened so near the border:

The fighters’ camp was at Kafr Takharim, near the Turkish border. The attack was the most violent breach of a cease-fire agreement that Russia and Turkey reached in March. Russia has occasionally made smaller strikes on militant groups, but such a large strike so close to the Turkish border is unusual.

The earliest reports put the death toll at over 34, which continued to rise through the day. The NY Times notes further that “Video footage from the scene showed the bodies of at least a dozen fighters wrapped in blankets on the floor of a clinic.”

Previous Russian-Turkey ceasefire agreements related to Idlib have been conditioned on Turkey rooting out clearly designated terrorist groups. However, groups which Turkey and the West have dubbed “moderate” are often seen by Russia and Damascus as terrorists.

In this case the Western allies that have been covertly involved in Syria have long thought of Faylaq al-Sham as supposedly moderate. Russia clearly thought otherwise.

Currently, some analysts are speculating that Russia could be sending a message to Turkey at a moment Ankara appears to be getting more deeply involved supporting its ally Azerbaijan against Armenia in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region.

end
AZERBAIJAN/ARMENIA/USA
Peace is no where in site
(SouthFront)

“Nobody Believes In Peace”: Azerbaijan Attacks Armenian Forces Despite US-Sponsored Ceasefire

Submitted by SouthFront,

As of October 26, Azerbaijan and Turkey kept their operational initiative in the war with Armenia in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region. Their forces continue developing their offensive in southern Karabakh by trying to remove Armenian forces from of the Lachin corridor area in order to cut off the link between the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and Armenia itself.

Attempts of Armenian forces to retake the initiative and counter—attacks near the Iranian border did not lead to any breakthrough results. In turn, the Armenian Defense Ministry was forced to admit that it in fact has lost the south of Karabakh. Nonetheless, according to its version of events, the towns of Fuzuli and Hadrut are still not controlled by Azerbaijan. This goes contrary to videos from the ground. At the same time, the Azerbaijani advance on the town of Qubadli faced particular difficulties and in fact the town remains contested. Further development of the Azerbaijani forces’ advance poses a direct thereat to the town of Shushi, near the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic capital, Stepankert, and the Lanchin corridor. Both these directions are considered as strategically vital by the Armenian leadership and it will likely contribute every possible effort to prevent this scenario.

On October 25, the General Prosecutor’s Office of Armenia announced that it has factual evidence that numerous operators of Turkish Special Forces took part in clashes in Karabakh. According to the report, since August, Turkish personnel have been training the Azerbaijani military and participating in the conflict. Earlier it became known that after the joint Turkish-Azerbaijani drills in August a large number of Turkish military specialists, service members and equipment remained in Azerbaijan. The presence of Turkish F-16 fighter jets at the airbases of Ganja and Qabala were confirmed by satellite images. The Armenian side insists that the Turkish F-16s were involved in the shooting down of Armenian aircraft and providing air cover for Azerbaijani combat drones bombing Armenian positions in Karabakh. Turkish weapon supplies and the contribution of Turkish intelligence and top officers to the planning and employment the Azerbaijani advance in Karabakh are another open secret. The presence of members of Turkish-backed Syrian militant groups in the combat zone area was also confirmed by photo and video evidence.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev insists that the Turkish military and Syrian militants do not participate in the war while simultaneously making loud statements about victories of Azerbaijani forces. During an operational meeting with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and commanders of units on the front line, Aliyev claimed that his forces eliminated or captured about 300 Armenian battle tanks and destroyed 6 S-300 air defense systems. The Azerbaijani leader also stated that Armenia received modern weapons every day somehow forgetting to mention various Turkish and Israeli weapon systems employed by the Azerbaijani military.

Meanwhile, Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov met with Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun in Washington and agreed on the establishment of another humanitarian ceasefire, the third one since the start of the war on September 27. Nonetheless, it does not look like it will allow for any strategic breakthrough as the previous two ceasefires collapsed immediately after their formal start. Moreover, the current situation on the frontline does not sit well with the goals of both sides.

The Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc still seeks to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh question by military means dismantling the Armenian republic there and pushing the Armenians out of the region. At the same time, for the Armenians the current configuration of the frontline, even if the conflict is temporarily frozen, will be a source of permanent threat to the vital infrastructure of Karabakh. In these conditions, the resumption of the Azerbaijani advance will be almost inevitable.

The Iranian leadership is also skeptical regarding the diplomatic settlement of the conflict. Iran has deployed large forces to the border with Karabakh and launched large-scale military drills in the area.

END

6.Global Issues

Caterpillar

This company is a good Bellwether on global activity. It’s stock is sliding after a lack of guidance.  It did report a beat on revenue and EPS

(zerohedge)

Caterpillar Slides On Lack Of Guidance Despite Revenue, EPS Beats

Industrial giant Caterpillar dropped on on Tuesday after the company reported lower Q3 earnings as equipment sales fell across all three primary segments. The heavy equipment maker whose stock price had nearly doubled from the March lows on expectations of a V-shaped recovery and massive stimulus…

… reported adjusted Q3 profit of $1.34 per share, down 50% compared with $2.66 per share a year ago, but better than the $1.13 expected. The company also beat on revenue, reporting $9.88BN, down 23% Y/Y, but above the $9.19BN consensus estimate.

Despite the sharp decline in Y/Y results, the company said it sees “positive signs in certain industries and geographies” while failing to give reassurance that the worst of the hit from the coronavirus pandemic is behind the heavy-equipment maker, and refusing to provide guidance.

The Deerfield, Illinois-based company suspended its earnings forecast earlier this year because of uncertainty stemming from the coronavirus. The only hint of an outlook came in presentation slides, in which Caterpillar said it sees less of a decline in end-user demand in  the fourth quarter than in the third, and that operating margins should improve. The company also said that dealers inventories are being run down more quickly, expected to decline by $2.5 billion for the full year, which should point to better sales going forward.

As Bloomberg notes, CAT “is typically seen as a bellwether for the economy, so analysts looking for hints as to how the recovery from the pandemic is progressing were likely disappointed.”

Some more details from Q3:

  • 3Q financial revenue $653 million, estimate $709.0 million
  • 3Q Financial Products segment operating income $127 million, -47% y/y, estimate $156.1 million
  • 3Q Machinery, Energy & Transportation segment revenue $9.23 billion, estimate $9.19 billion
  • 3Q Machinery, Energy & Transportation segment operating income $925 million, -51% y/y, estimate $845.2 million

Looking ahead:

  • Sees 4Q Less Decline in End-User Demand Than 3Q
  • Sees Dealers to Cut Inventory Levels ~$700M in 4Q, about $2.5B full year
  • Sees 4Q About $100M of Restructuring Expense

Separately, Caterpillar, which has been cutting costs to blunt the impact of still-sluggish orders in energy and mining, said machine sales fell 20% in October on a rolling three-month basis, unchanged on a Y/Y basis since July.

Despite the depressed sales, there was some silver lining in Caterpillar’s presentation slides, where the company’s order backlog increased by $500 million in the third quarter from the previous three months, after dropping $1.2 billion in the previous quarter.

As Bloomberg notes, the report comes as a resurgent virus hampers efforts to reopen economies, renewing concerns over the global demand outlook. Caterpillar was among the best-performing stocks the past few months on bets that the worst of the pandemic hit was behind the industrial bellwether.

“We’re encouraged by positive signs in certain industries and geographies,” Caterpillar Chief Executive Officer Jim Umpleby said in the a statement. “We’re executing our strategy and are ready to respond quickly to changing market conditions.”

Caterpillar CFO Bonfield said there’s strength in their sales to China overall, particularly in 10-ton or above excavators. These excavator sales in China are something investors pay close attention to, given that they act as a sort of proxy as to how much construction is going on in the country.

Yet despite the favorable spin, the lack of blowout earnings for the company which had priced in more than perfection and a V-shaped recovery, saw its stock drop premarket amid concerns that a global second (or third) wave of infections would cripple demand for heavy industrial equipment.

end
COVID 19/PROPOSED NEW COVID SECURITY MEASURES
EMAIL FROM ROBERT TO ME:

CommonPass: New COVID Security Measures Make Health a Prerequisite for Travel

The core of these efforts is the desire to create a DNA-based population screening agenda, for an unspoken purpose. Hitler’s dream of a pure race can easily be realized.
If blood samples must be given to approved labs, not just any ordinary lab, why the fuss? Because we routinely given blood as part of Health checkups, so why such funneling of data?
Regrettably, this is part of further restrictions on ordinary travel even within borders and allows for singular genetic vaccines. The goal is not simply to give one broad vaccine as technology is evolving to allow very specific vaccines based on blood types and genetic markers. Using this approach, it is quite straightforward to eliminate certain desired groups from travel and it is nothing to do with a coronavirus. You can isolate by color, by age and by race. For example, the genetic markers in someone who is Polish is different to that of a Italian to that of a Brit, etc. And it s is quite simple to distinguish one group from the next. And it is quite sad, that no one seems to be crying out for DNA rights of privacy of the individual. Your DNA is you and any vaccine that alters it is altering you at your core. When did anyone give this right up? In America, I surely hope some enterprising individual or group will challenge this right up to the Supreme Court. This is as big a issue, as the right to life. And there are for some people serious religious questions. 
 
Citizenship and rights that come from this will quickly disappear under the new rules being considered limiting rights of people to travel and work. Does anyone wonder why nations would give up their rights and existing agreements between nations for travel of their citizens? Orwell  would be taken back if he was alive, as this is well beyond what he wrote in his book 1984. 
Cheers

Robert
END

7. OIL ISSUES

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

VENEZUELA

If this works it is quite something. We are trying to measure how close this is to the Canadian discovery of plant interference in the replication of the COVID 19

(zerohedge)

“Tremendous News!” – Maduro Touts Venezuelan Vaccine That Inhibits COVID

Multiple COVID-19 vaccine trials are in the final stages around the world. But in one unlikely place, that being the collapsed state of Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro touted Sunday, in an appearance on state television, that his government scientists have developed a “highly effective antiviral” that kills the virus without any side effects.

Maduro tweeted: “Tremendous News! We certify the DR10 molecule as a highly effective antiviral in the fight against Covid-19.”

He continued: “We have started the World Health Organization (WHO) certification process to offer this treatment to the world. I thank the Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research (IVIC) team for this great contribution to humanity.”

At the IVIC, scientists have been working around the clock to develop a cure for the virus. Maduro said that the vaccine’s active ingredient is a derivative of ursolic acid from a plant and will not harm humans.

Maduro said the vaccine would be transferred to the WHO for further evaluation and possible use worldwide.

“The molecule will be mass-produced and delivered worldwide for the cure of Covid-19,” according to Maduro.

So the question we ask Dr. Scott Gottlieb, who famously expressed skepticism about Russia’s COVID-19 vaccine in August: Is how he would feel about Maduro’s wonder vaccine? 

END

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1827 UP .0018 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

USA/JAPAN YEN 104.62 DOWN 0.209 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3049   UP   0.0035  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.3161 DOWN .0045 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 18 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1827 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE  UP 3.20 POINTS OR .10%

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.59 PTS OR .53% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1,73%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 131.59 PTS OR .53% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.20 PTS OR .10% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.73% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 8.54  POINTS OR 0.04%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1902.40

silver:$24.42-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.801% !!! DOWN 0 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.592 DOWN 0  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 92.90 DOWN 14 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.14% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.04.%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.16%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.71 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 54 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.61% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.32% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1829  UP     .0021 or 21 basis points

USA/Japan: 104.42 DOWN .412 OR YEN UP 41  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3069 UP .0054 POUND UP 54  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 39 basis points to 1.3166

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed DOWN TO 6.7055    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7032  (YUAN DOWN).

TURKISH LIRA:  8.14  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.04%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.782 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.573 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.85 down 20  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 62.20  1.07%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 138.76 POINTS OR 1.14%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 91.80 POINTS 1.91%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 148.80 POINTS or 2.18%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 283.34 POINTS OR 1.50%

WTI Oil price; 39.09 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 40.99 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    76.95  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.56 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 56 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.61 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price f0r Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  39.48//

BRENT :  41.13

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.778..down 3 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.564 down 3 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1808 ( DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:104.50 DOWN .332 (YEN UP 33 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.94 DOWN 11 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3054 UP 39  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.18

the Russian rouble 77.25   DOWN 0.87 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 87 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3172 UP 34 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.61%

The Dow closed DOWN 221.56 POINTS OR 0.80%

NASDAQ closed UP 72.42 POINTS OR 0.64%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  32.74 CLOSED UP .28

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.222%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Bitcoin Outperforms Nasdaq Over Last 12 Months, Bonds Bid As Dollar Skids

Mixed bag in stocks today (mega-tech bid, rest of market offered) but Bitcoin grabbed the headlines as it overtook Nasdaq’s performance in the last 12 months…

Source: Bloomberg

And longer-term, it’s not TSLA…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq outperformed and the machines tried desperately to get the S&P green on the day. Small Caps and The Dow lagged…(NOTE, everything slid into the close after Trump said “Your 401(k)s, down the tubes. Look how great our stock market – – had a little blip yesterday because Nancy Pelosi will not approve stimulus, that’s all,”)

Nasdaq manage to hold its bounce above the 50DMA but S&P and The Dow did not…

As we noted earlier, we have seen persistent “large lot” selling and “small lot” dip-buying…

Will everyone follow each other’s tracks down too?

Europe was ugly again today as lockdown threats escalated (no bounce)…

Source: Bloomberg

YTD, China (SHCOMP) still leads the US (Nasdaq is outperforming but S&P seems more appropriate) as Europe (DAX) dumps…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq surged relative to Small Caps once again…

Momentum continued to rebound as Value lagged…

Source: Bloomberg

Some rotation today with value dumped as growth rebounded modestly…

Source: Bloomberg

Semis were marginally lower on the day after the AMD/XLNX deal…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank stocks sank again today…

Source: Bloomberg

FANG stocks erased yesterday’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, HOG had its best day ever as the machines ran the stops to the pre-COVID levels…

VIX was higher on the day, signaling more pain to come for stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

Bond yields fell for the 3rd day in a row with the curve flattening significantly (2Y -0.5bps, 30Y -11bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

With 10Y back to 76bps intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

Real Yields tumbled back in line with gold today…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar leaked lower today…

Cryptos were mixed today with Bitcoin leading, now up over 20% in the last 10 days…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged above $13,500, its highest close since Jan 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rebounded from yesterday’s weakness but WTI failed to get back to $40 ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

Gold futures rallied off $1900…

Finally, we note that implied correlation is on the rise suggesting investors are piling into protective macro overlays ahead of the election (as opposed to individual stock hedging), expecting a systemic re-rating of stocks

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

ii)Market data/USA

Durable goods beat in September but remain lower year over year

(zerohedge)

US Durable Goods Orders Beat In September, Remain Lower Year-Over-Year

August’s significant slowdown in the rebound of US Durable Goods Orders was expected to continue in early September data, but instead the Census Bureau printed a big surprise beat, rising 1.9% MoM (against +0.5% exp).

Source: Bloomberg

However, headline durable goods orders remain (marginally) lower on a YoY basis (-0.4%) and below February’s pre-COVID levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Core capital goods orders, a barometer for business investment which excludes aircraft and military categories, rose 1% in September, also more than forecast, after an upwardly revised 2.1% advance a month earlier.

Finally, we note that there is a significant rise in inventories relative to shipments across many sectors…

If you build it, they will come? They better!!

END

US Consumer Confidence Slides In October As ‘Hope’ Tumbles

After September’s surprise rebound in confidence, The Conference Board reported a drop in sentiment in October with ‘hope’ fading. The headline confidence print fell from 101.3 to 100.9 with current conditions ticking up and future expectations fading:

  • Present situation confidence rose to 104.6 vs 98.9 last month
  • Consumer confidence expectations fell to 98.4 vs 102.9 last month

Source: Bloomberg

The Labor Differential improved to 6.6 (jobs are easier to get) – its highest since March – but plans to buy cars and major appliances slumped (homes rose modestly) as expectations for income gains in the next 12 months dropped.

end

Soft data Richmond Fed smashes expectations and hits a record high. I would not put much into this.

(zerohedge)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Judge Amy Comey confirmed….Radical democrats pound the table that they will expand the court.

(zerohedge)

Judge Amy Coney Barrett Confirmed, Radical Dems Demand “Expand The Court”

If you feel like some self-flagellation, you can watch the entire Schumer show before the vote here:

“You may win this vote and Amy Coney Barrett may become a justice on the Supreme Court. But you will never, never get your credibility back,” Mr Schumer said, side-eyeing his GOP colleagues on the Senate floor.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell fired back that Democrats would have done the same thing if the shoe was on the other foot.

“The reason we were able to make the decision we did in 2016,” he said, referring to the GOP blocking Mr Garland’s nomination, “is because we had become the majority in 2014. The reason we were able to do what we did in 2016 and 2018 and 2020 is because we had the majority. No rules are broken whatsoever.”

The GOP-controlled Senate has voted on Barrett’s nomination and as widely expected confirmed her as the 115th justice on the nation’s highest court, sealing a 6-3 conservative majority on the panel that has become more and more instrumental in steering the course of US domestic policy in recent decades.

As McConnell punctuated his point earlier on: “Elections have consequences.”

Ms Barrett, 48, who has served on the US Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit since 2017, is the fifth woman to serve on the Supreme Court, and just the second woman appointed by a Republican president.

A senior White House official confirmed that Justice Clarence Thomas will swear in Judge Amy Coney Barrett as an associate justice on the Supreme Court later this evening.

CNN made it clear what they would be focusing on..

as did NBC News…

And all of this happened on Hillary’s birthday!

So what happens next (apart from an avalanche of whiney, angry press statements from Democratic party leaders)?

After today’s confirmation vote, (and soon to occur, socially-distanced swearing-in-ceremony at The White House), Jonathan Turley details in the following op-ed at The Hill, what he calls ‘the parade of horribles’ proposed by academics for changing the Court to legislatively negate the majority of conservative justices after the addition of Amy Coney Barrett to the Court.

The Radicals are demanding it…

The concern is that this is little beyond enablement by commission as Democrats claim license to do lasting harm to one of the most important institutions in our constitutional system.

As Turley explains, the vote on Monday to make Judge Amy Coney Barrett the 115th Supreme Court justice will be more than a confirmation. It will be a dispensation, according to former Vice President Joe Biden and various Democratic senators. They have cited the vote as relieving them of any guilt in fundamentally changing the court to manufacture a liberal majority. Like school kids daring others to step over a line as an excuse to fight, Democrats insist that filling this vacancy will invite changes ranging from “packing” the court to stripping it of authority to rule in certain cases.

The problem is that the line the Senate will step over is set by the Constitution, while the proposals by Democrats would retaliate against the use of a power granted by the Constitution. Democrats are floating a parade of horribles to “reform” the Supreme Court and negate its growing conservative majority. Biden said this week that the court is “out of whack” and, as president, he would assemble a commission of “experts” to explore “a number of alternatives that go well beyond packing.” The commission would report to him 180 days after his inauguration.

Polls show almost 60 percent of Americans oppose the court packing scheme supported by Democrats, including Biden’s running mate, Senator Kamala Harris. One person not polled was the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who denounced such a scheme as guaranteeing the court’s destruction.

A New York Times and Siena College poll found only 31 percent favor court packing. That is a familiar figure: For the last four years, the same 30 percent of both parties have supported the most destructive political measures and rhetoric. Those extremes continue to control our politics, while the vast majority of us in the middle watch in disbelief as virtually every Democratic senator embraces one of the most reviled tactics in American history.

Those senators are not alone.

A host of professors (who likely will be on the short list for Biden’s commission) are giving credibility to court packing.

Harvard professor Michael Klarman attacked the foundations of Congress before attacking the foundations of the court. Klarman condemned a “malapportionment” in the Senate that he believes gives Republicans greater power, and referred to their refusal to vote on Obama court nominee Merrick Garland as “stealing a seat.” While controversial (and I was among those calling for a vote on Garland), that decision was clearly constitutional. Yet Klarman illogically calls it “court packing” to justify any act of retaliation: “Democrats are not initiating this spiral. They are simply responding in kind.”

Jurisdiction stripping

Several professors argue for a court packing alternative that moves to the opposite approach: If you cannot make the court bigger, then shrink its authority. By using “jurisdiction stripping,” Democrats would bar federal courts from reviewing certain types of legislation. So, faced with a conservative court, a Democratic Congress would make the courts into a nullity to give itself unchecked authority in various areas. Assuming courts would allow such a move, it would create a race to the bottom as more and more legislation was protected from judicial review.

Supermajority voting

Another approach is to leave the Supreme Court at its current size but effectively “pack” the vote by requiring supermajority decisions. A Democratic Congress would enhance the votes of the court’s minority by requiring a two-thirds vote or even unanimity for certain types of cases or laws. It is an ironic idea since, against the advice of many, Democrats got rid of the Senate filibuster for judicial nominations when it held the majority — fundamentally changing longtime protections for a Senate minority. In this case, Democrats would designate favored areas or types of cases protected by supermajority rules, thereby manipulating the court’s votes.

Balanced bench

Pete Buttigieg and some academics have proposed disregarding any pretense of nonpartisan justices. They would convert the court into a kind of judicial Federal Communications Commission, with Democrats and Republicans each picking five justices who would then pick five more from federal appeals courts to serve terms of one year. That would make the Supreme Court a crude reflection of our dysfunctional political times.

Notably, the Supreme Court is reviewing such a partisan court system in Carney versus Adams. The case must be familiar to Biden, since it deals with a moronic Delaware constitutional requirement that the five seats on the state’s Supreme Court be divided between Democrats and Republicans — preventing an independent from becoming a justice. In Delaware, a “balanced court” apparently means you must first establish that you are from the right party before you can mete out justice The proposal would have a continually shifting court and, since the five transient justices would be selected based on party affiliation, they likely would become pawns in a partisan calculation.

Another proposal would “solve” the “problem” of a conservative majority by literally turning every judge into an associate justice. A lottery would be held every two weeks to randomly select nine justices to hear cases, with each panel limited to no more than five judges nominated by a president of the same political party. Senator Bernie Sanders actually endorsed this looney idea. It is akin to the character “Syndrome” in “The Incredibles” explaining he would give everyone superpowers because “when everyone’s super … no one will be.” Most Americans are unlikely to want to replace today’s court with a law by lottery approach.

As someone who proposed expanding the Supreme Court decades ago, I am not opposed to reform. However, Biden’s proposed commission is not about reform. It is about packing, stacking, and stripping schemes to achieve political outcomes on the Supreme Court. Biden is offering up the institution to the 30 percent demanding extreme measures to satiate their anger. Biden once denounced court packing as a “bone headed idea” — but he may now appoint a commission to convert a variety of bone headed ideas into bona fide proposals.

end
This is good for Trump:  the US State Department has halted all diversity training.  Before this diversity training was supporting anti American feelings.  It has come to an end
(zero hedge)

US State Department Halts All Diversity Training After Trump’s Exec Order

A US State Department cable, obtained by Reuters, shows “all training programs for employees related to diversity and inclusion” have been halted after President Trump directed the federal agency in September to end the programs.

“Beginning Friday, October 23, 2020, the Department is temporarily pausing all training programs related to diversity and inclusion in accordance with Executive Order … on Combating Race and Sex Stereotyping,” the cable said.

“The pause will allow time for the Department and Office of Personnel Management (OPM) to review program content,” it said.

Reuters said the order comes nearly two months after a White House Office of Management and Budget’s memo advised federal agencies that taxpayer dollars were no longer allowed to fund “un-American propaganda sessions” that taught critical race theory, white privilege, and or “taught that the United States is an inherently racist or evil” country.

Trump signed the executive order suspending the diversity training program on September 22. The order forbids any teaching by federal agencies of “divisive concepts,” implying that the US is “fundamentally racist or sexist.”

And the move to stop the spread of diversity training doesn’t just stop with the Trump administration. The UK’s equalities minister has warned schools against teaching some aspects of critical race theory. 

MP Kemi Badenoch said the rise of critical race theory was a “dangerous trend in race relations.”

“We do not want to see teachers teaching their white pupils about white privilege and inherited racial guilt,” she said.

“Any school which teaches these elements of critical race theory or which promotes partisan political views such as defunding the police, without offering a balanced treatment of opposing views, is breaking the law.”

Notably, Badendoch also warned against importing the rhetoric on race from America.

Our history of race is not America’s history of race. Most black British people who have come to our shores were not brought here in chains, but came voluntarily due to their connections to the UK and in search of a better life. I should know. I am one of them.

But, as Tucker Carlson recently discussed, the ideology is nothing but “divisive,” reiterating President Trump’s recent warning that this ideology is rooted in the pernicious and false belief that America is an irredeemably racist and sexist country; that some people, simply on account of their race or sex, are oppressors; and that racial and sexual identities are more important than our common status as human beings and Americans.”

end
PHILADELPHIA/RIOTING
After a man, brandishing a knife, refused to lay down his weapon and after continued warnings to stop, the individual while lunging  toward the police  was shot in total self defense.  Doesn’t matter…rioting in Philadelphia ensued.
(zerohedge)

Philadelphia Overrun By Rioting, Looting After Police Shoot Knife-Wielding Black Man

Yet another night of looting and rioting in America…

As Summit News’ Paul Joseph Watson reports, the rioters hit the streets after the police shooting of Walter Wallace Jr. in an incident being described as yet another unprovoked murder of a black man.

In reality, footage of the incident shows Wallace Jr. ignoring numerous warnings from police officers to drop the weapon as he advances on them before being shot.

NOTE – the tweet of the actual incident has now been deleted from Twitter

However, as we have seen multiple times over the past 5 months, Black Lives Matter agitators don’t let the facts get in the way of yet another chance to riot.

A female sergeant suffered a broken leg as she was struck by a speeding vehicle.

Other videos show BLM criminals looting a clothing store.

Another clip shows a police car on fire.

Cops were chased down the street by the mob, who threw projectiles at officers who weren’t wearing full protective riot gear.

“Get em, yeah! That’s what I like!” shouts the man filming the scene.

Another video shows riot cops being pelted with trash cans and other objects.

*  *  *

New limited edition merch now available! Click here.

iv) Swamp commentaries)

This is quite a story.  Bobulinski recorded Biden operatives begging him to stay quiet.  He will release this tape tonight on Tucker Carlson\

(zerohedge)

‘You’ll Bury Everyone Involved’: Bobulinski Recorded Biden Operatives Begging Him To Stay Quiet, Set To Release Tues

Former Biden insider Tony Bobulinski allegedly has a recording of Biden family operatives begging him to stay quiet, or he will “bury” the reputations of everyone involved in Hunter’s overseas dealings.

According to The Federalist‘s Sean Davis, Bobulinski will play the tape on Fox News’ “Tucker Carlson Tonight” on Tuesday, when Carlson will devote his show ‘entirely’ to an interview with the Biden whistleblower.

As The Federalist notes:

The Federalist confirmed with sources familiar with the plans that Bobulinski, a retired Navy lieutenant and Biden associate, will be airing tapes of Biden operatives begging Bobulinski to remain quiet as former Vice President Joe Biden nears the finish line to the White House next week.

Bobulinski flipped on the Bidens following a Senate report which revealed that they received a $5 million interest-free loan from a now-bankrupt Chinese energy company.

According to the former Biden insider, he was introduced to Joe Biden by Hunter, and they had an hour-long meeting where they discussed the Biden’s business plans with the Chinese, with which he says Joe was “plainly familiar at least at a high level.” 

Text messages from Bobulinski also reveal an effort to conceal Joe Biden’s involvement in Hunter’s business dealings, while Tony has also confirmed that the “Big guy” described in a leaked email is none other than Joe Biden himself.

Of course, aside from the corruption allegations, Hunter Biden’s laptop allegedly contained child porn, which the FBI sat on for nine months after a Delaware computer repair shop owner turned it over to them, only to approach Congress – and finally Rudy Giuliani, when nobody else would take action.

And while we take no position on the “Q” phenomenon – we would be remiss if we didn’t point out that the MSM is panicking to cover up what appears to be yet another elite pedophile who may have had an incestuous relationship with his niece – whose mother (his brother widow) Hunter was ‘intimately’ familiar with.

What’s going on with these people?

Imagine if Donald Trump Jr. was smoking crack while getting footjobs from potentially underage family members, whose pornographic photos were found on his laptop.

end
Amazing!! Listen to the tape:  Joe Biden and Hunter Biden are done!
(Kasssam and Winters/National Pulse)

Hunter Biden Confesses Partnership With China ‘Spy Chief’ — Fumes After He And Joe Named As Criminal Witnesses: Audio

Authored by Raheem Kassam and Natalie Winters via The National Pulse (emphasis ours)

An audio recording exclusively obtained by the National Pulse reveals Hunter Biden discussing business involvement with a “spy chief of China” and how his business partner Devon Archer named him and his father as witnesses in a Southern District of New York Criminal case.

Hunter Biden – in an audio file labelled “Most Genius Shit Ever” – appears to be referencing Patrick Ho, who was a former Secretary for Home Affairs in Hong Kong, as a “spy chief of China” while lamenting how his business partner Ye Jianming of CEFC China Energy had disappeared.

Ho was also involved in the CEFC venture, as originally reported by the New York Post and suppressed by the media and Big Tech firms.

The audio breaks the mainstream media’s narrative that the hard drive is somehow “fake” or does not implicate Hunter or Joe Biden in criminal investigations and/or business deals with the Chinese Communist Party.

The former veep’s son also bemoans longtime business partner Devon Archer naming him and his father Joe as witnesses “in a criminal case” without notifying him.

I get calls from my father to tell me that The New York Times is calling but my old partner Eric, who literally has done me harm for I don’t know how long, is the one taking the calls because my father will not stop sending the calls to Eric. I have another New York Times reporter calling about my representation of Patrick Ho – the fucking spy chief of China who started the company that my partner, who is worth $323 billion, founded and is now missing. The richest man in the world is missing who was my partner. He was missing since I last saw him in his $58 million apartment inside a $4 billion deal to build the fucking largest fucking LNG port in the world. And I am receiving calls from the Southern District of New York from the U.S. Attorney himself. My best friend in business Devon has named me as a witness without telling me in a criminal case and my father without telling me.

The recording adds to the litany of e-mails and stories broken by The National Pulse about the grift of the Biden family, including yesterday’s scoop about the VP’s son using White House access in exchange for resort villa stays and artwork.

Listen to Hunter’s “Most Genius Shit Ever” at The National Pulse.

Meanwhile:

Biden ‘Zombie’ Clip Goes Viral As Trump Campaign Gambles On Unconventional Ads Into Election

With the 2020 election just days away, the Trump campaign is firing up the base with a pair of hilarious campaign ads – which are currently going viral.

On Sunday, Trump – no stranger to using memes and satire (often labeled ‘manipulated media’ by Silicon Valley technocrats) – put out a 15-second Halloween themed “How to Spot a Zombie” clip featuring Joe Biden doing various ‘zombie’ things, such as ‘aggressive behavior‘ (snaps at reporter) and ‘craves human flesh‘ (creeps on Sen. Chris Coons’ (D-DE) daughter), and so on.

The clip has over one million views in 48 hours on YouTube and just under 600K on the “Team Trump” Twitter account.

And in a second campaign ad, this one just under 40 seconds, Trump can be seen throwing a MAGA hat at various people – hitting an Antifa protester in the balls, making Hillary Clinton trip, and finally smacking Joe Biden in the head.

The clip had over 300,000 views in two hours on Tuesday:

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Industrial stocks tank after China sanctions Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Raytheon over Taiwan sales [China’s ‘October Surprise’ to hurt DJT before the election.]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/industrial-stocks-china-sanctions-boeing-raytheon-lockheed-martin-market-djia-2020-10-1029722343

Confirmed influenza cases hit rock-bottom, puzzling infectious disease experts

World Health Organization global flu surveillance shows a severe drop-off in flu cases starting in early April; whereas in past years flu cases are sustained at a steady plateau over the mid-year months — driven by the Southern Hemisphere’s flu season — WHO observation has cases more or less disappearing from April onwards…Yet coronavirus cases nevertheless continued to circulate in many areas with stringent lockdowns…   https://justthenews.com/nation/confirmed-influenza-cases-hit-rock-bottom-amid-rising-covid-numbers

@YahooFinance: Former Trump advisor Gary Cohn: Markets are down on the ‘100% probability’ that stimulus deal won’t pass before the election   https://yhoo.it/3kAfvwS

There is another dynamic that might be weighing on equities.  Wall Street solons and elites have poured beaucoup donations into Biden and very little into Trump.  The Street wants Joe to win.  For the past few months, numerous Street strategists and pundits have told clients and the media that Joe would be good for stocks and the coming ‘Blue Wave’ would be the optimal outcome for the stock market.

President Donald Trump TAKES LEAD Over Joe Biden in Rasmussen Daily ‘White House Watch’ — 4 Point Swing in ONE WEEK   https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/breaking-president-donald-trump-takes-lead-joe-biden-rasmussen-daily-white-house-watch-4-point-swing-one-week/

Wisconsin Early Ballot Returns Show Polls Are Wrong–Republicans Storm the Polls, Now Ahead in WI – Republicans crash Wisconsin early vote, eating into Democrats’ lead

https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/wisconsin-early-ballot-returns-show-recent-polls-are-wrong-as-republicans-storm-the-polls-now-ahead-in-wi/

As of Monday afternoon, 42% of mailed-in and early-voted Wisconsin ballots are GOP; 36% are Dem.

https://twitter.com/SunshineSt8Sam/status/1320803694569496582/photo/1

The NYT’s @tripgabriel: Some concerns for Biden in PA polling, including in Philly, where he’s running 10 points behind Hillary Clinton’s support in 2016 and Trump is ~9 points ahead of where he was four years ago.  Also, Trump is 9 points behind the support he had in 2016 in the Philly suburbs. But Biden is only 3 points better than Hillary Clinton’s suburban support.

Trafalgar, the sole pollster in 2016 that had Trump winning PA (+1), has DJT +2 in the Keystone State.

Politico: Republicans crash Florida early vote, eating into Democrats’ lead

Florida Republicans are pouring out of the trenches…taking large bites out of their opponents’ historic lead in pre-Election Day ballots… https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/24/republicans-florida-early-vote-democrats-432135

Are these experimental polling questions pointing to a Trump victory? [Pollster got 2016 right]

Two new questions added to the USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll this year, reported separately from the main results, predict that the national popular vote for president could be much closer than most polls are predicting. They also suggest Trump will once again win the election in the Electoral College

   The “social-circle question” asks respondents to report the percentage of their social contacts they expect to vote for each of the candidates. The other one, known as the “state winner question,” asks participants who they think will win the election in their state…

https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/3338/experimental-polling-point-to-trump-victory/

Suddenly, Street pundits are now walking back their predictions of a ‘Blue Wave’ and Biden win.  If you poured into stocks because of a ‘Blue Wave’ and/or Biden win, what do you do now?

Wall Street Begins Hedging: JPM Says Trump Victory Is “Most Favorable Outcome”, Would Push S&P to 3,900 – in a dramatic reversal from the recent narrative which present a “Blue Sweep” as the most beneficial outcome from the election, the JPMorgan strategist writes that he maintains a probability weighted S&P 500 price target of 3,600 for year-end, and sees “an orderly Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for equities (upside to ~3,900)… last week we analyzed voter registration data and their possible implication for State outcomes, while this week we analyzed Twitter sentiment on US election and compared it with the traditional polling data – they all point to a tightening race.” …

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-street-begins-hedging-jpm-says-trump-victory-most-favorable-outcome-would-push-sp-3900

The notion that a ‘Blue Wave’ and Biden win was the optimal outcome for stocks is as absurd as the proffered notion four years ago that a Trump win would ignite a depression and 30% stock crash.

Joe had a bad day on Saturday with new sordid allegations appearing.  So, he called a lid for Sunday.  Joe and Kamala had a disappointing “60 Minutes” appearance, even though they were playing in the friendly confines.  Host Norah O’Donnell added after Joe’s segment that the ‘Biden campaign said Joe misspoke’ when he said: “I can send every single qualified person to a four-year college in their state for $150 billion.”  Later, in a virtual event with Jill sitting beside him, Joe called Trump ‘George’.  Team Biden said Joe was referring to comedian/actor George Lopez, who was doing the interview.

‘We need to stop four more years of George’: Jill Biden whispers ‘Trump’ under her breath during a virtual campaign rally https://trib.al/YQLjSQO

Biden Staff Tells 60 Minutes He Misspoke in Saying Free College Would Cost $150 Billion

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/biden-staff-tells-60-minutes-he-misspoke-in-saying-free-college-would-cost-150-billion/

 

Kamala Harris Laughs [on “60 Minutes”] When Asked if She Would Bring “Socialist or Progressive Perspective” to Biden Administration – During an interview on CBS’ “60 Minutes” released Sunday, anchor Norah O’Donnell asked Sen. Kamala Harris about being listed as the “most liberal” senator by the nonpartisan GovTrack website… https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/10/26/kamala_harris_laughs_when_asked_if_she_would_bring_socialist_or_progressive_perspective_to_biden_administration.html

So, Joe called a lid for Monday – and for the remainder of the campaign (no in-person campaigning)!

@TomBevanRCP: It’s been 67 days since the end of the DNC [Virtual Convention]. Biden has made 26 campaign visits. That’s one visit every 2.57 days.

@HallieOnMSNBC: @mikememoli crunched the numbers on Biden’s campaign travels since the convention [10 to PA (next door to Joe), 3 to MI & FL] https://twitter.com/HallieOnMSNBC/status/1320760123216826370

This is not a parody piece!  Joe Biden tweeted at 15:40 ET: Don’t wake up on November 4th wishing you had done more. If you’re able, chip in $8 to help secure a victory in 8 days [You can’t make this up!]

Near the close yesterday, Biden, speaking to reporters on line, said he planned ‘to travel a lot in coming days’.  If true, what changed his plans?

BI’s @TinaSfon 16:10 ET: Biden heading to both Iowa and Wisconsin on Friday, campaign says.

@TuckerCarlson: Tony Bobulinski says he met with Joe Biden about China. The media have suppressed the story, but it’s real and it matters. Voters have a right to know the details. Bobulinski sits for an extended interview Tuesday night at 8p ET on #FoxNews

@seanmdav: According to a source familiar with the planning, Bobulinski will play recordings of Biden family operatives begging him to stay quiet and claiming Bobulinski’s revelations will “bury” the reputations of everyone involved in Hunter’s overseas deals.

BIDEN: ‘I Just Told You Where I’m Going! There Hasn’t Been a Day that’s not a 12-Hour Day Yet!’ – “You’ve kept a relatively light schedule over the last few days, can you give us a sense of where you’ll be going over the next few days?” asked one reporter.  “I just told you where I’m going to be traveling, and I’ve been traveling the last few days too! I’m going to Iowa, Wisconsin, Georgia, Florida… There’s a lot we’ve been doing online and everything from fundraising to making sure we meet with leaders,” said Biden. “There’s not been a day that hasn’t been a 12-hour day yet!” he added.

https://hannity.com/media-room/biden-snaps-i-just-told-you-where-im-going-there-hasnt-been-a-day-thats-not-a-12-hour-day-yet/

@TVNewsHQ last evening: Moments ago, as Biden starts to stumble with a question about court-packing, his staff starts escorting the camera away...  https://twitter.com/TVNewsHQ/status/1320815834315608064

PS – Obama will campaign for Joe in Orlando, Florida today.

Trump held three rallies at different Pennsylvania locales on Monday.

@abigailmarone: President Trump shows MASSIVE Pennsylvania crowd clips of Biden praising China & supporting trade deals that shipped American jobs overseas.

https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1320792521925140482

@abigailmarone: President Trump’s third Pennsylvania rally of the day is absolutely MASSIVE!

https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1320835061634269184

U.S. Approves Potential $2.4B Anti-Ship Missile Sale to Taiwan – BBG   17:17 ET

Department of Defense: The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States (TECRO) of up to one hundred (100) Harpoon Coastal Defense Systems (HCDS) and related equipment for an estimated cost of $2.37 billion. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale today…

https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/taipei-economic-and-cultural-representative-office-united-states-17

Pelosi optimistic of COVID-19 relief deal before Nov. 3 U.S. elections-aide (18:30 ET) http://reut.rs/3kxOSZd

@Reuters last night: The U.S. Supreme Court declined [5-3] to allow a six-day deadline extension for receipt of mail-in ballots in Wisconsin, siding with Republicans.

@shipwreckedcrew: Last 3 Democrat Presidents to win the Presidency without tragedy/scandal:

Barack Obama, age 47; Bill Clinton, age 46; John Kennedy, age 43. The Democrat party doesn’t rally around septuagenarians.  They have always embraced generational change in their Presidents.

Will anyone from the left realize why Trump won — again?

Weeks before the 2016 election, I sent an email to several media and political personalities predicting that Donald Trump would win Pennsylvania and get 306 electoral votes.  I’m not a professional pollster, but I did work on three winning presidential campaigns, and I simply tried to block out the noise from supporters of both the Trump and Hillary Clinton campaigns. I pulled up the 2012 electoral map to see which states Mitt Romney won and then, factoring in the latest data and political miscalculations, made an educated guess for 2016.  Using that same system, I have come up with a prediction for 2020: an absolute floor of 278 electoral votes for Trump, with a real chance that he’ll win more than 310 electoral votes… https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/522420-will-anyone-from-the-left-realize-why-trump-won-again

With the Hunter Biden Expose, Suppression is a Bigger Scandal than the Actual Story

Unprecedented efforts to squelch information about a New York Post story may prove to be more dangerous corruption than whatever Hunter Biden did with a crooked Ukrainian energy company

https://taibbi.substack.com/p/with-the-hunter-biden-expose-suppression-136

In 2015, Joe Biden’s license plate read: THEBIGBUY

https://twitter.com/GetInTheGame18/status/1320830384435646464/photo/1

NPR Reports on Biden Assassination Plot, Omits That Mastermind Was Pro-Islam, Bernie Bro

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-what-npr-chose-not-tell-you-about-alleged-biden-assassination-plotter

Boycott-Barrett Ploy Shows Difference between Democrats and Republican

In a final infantile stunt, Senate Judiciary Committee Democrats boycotted this morning’s vote on passing Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination out of committee and onto the floor…The boycott was a pointless gesture… It was a radical break with democratic norms, by which we register dissent by voting nay, not by picking up our ball and going home like poorly raised children. Having crossed yet another Rubicon, Democrats will eventually learn, at some point when it really costs them…

    The boycott was self-destructive, coming only after the nominee had impressed Americans for two days with her intellect, poise, and good nature…Everyone, however, was watching on the two days when the Democrats deigned to show up, and Barrett reduced them to an intramural competition for coveted Ass-Clown of the Year honors

    Therein lies a telling difference between the two parties. To win, Republicans must be sound in pursuing their strategies because the media oppose them at every turn. They are thus fortunate to be led by a superb tactician, Senator Mitch McConnell. Democrats, by contrast, are cheered on by the media in pursuing their strategies, regardless of whether they are sharp or daft. They are thus spared the criticism that disciplines politicians to plan carefully

    So they talk crazy about Court-packing, and when the polling cuts against them, they try to redefine what Court-packing means… all Democrats accomplish by their hearing antics is a swing in the polling. A widening majority of Americans have concluded that Barrett is terrific. In fact, they’d like to see her confirmed…Democrats never have to think such things through. By the next news cycle, the media will bury the boycott like it never happened, or maybe just blame it on . . . I don’t know . . . Russian disinformation?  https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/boycott-barrett-ploy-shows-difference-between-democrats-and-republicans/

New Jersey mayor opens Trump food boxes, removes president’s letter, and replaces it with his own

https://newjerseyglobe.com/local/new-jersey-mayor-opens-trump-food-boxes-removes-presidents-letter-and-replaces-it-with-his-own/

Ex-long-time CBS and Fox reporter Bernard Goldberg: American Journalism 2020: R.I.P.

We all know why they’re censoring news about the Biden family even after the Director of National Intelligence told us that there was no Russian disinformation campaign involved; even after Fox News obtained a receipt from the computer repair shop with Hunter Biden’s signature on it, indicating that the computer is indeed his; even after Hunter Biden’s ex-business associate said the emails were authentic and accused Joe Biden of lying about his involvement in his son’s business…

    Journalists used to be curious. They wanted to find out what was true. That was before Donald Trump became president and they embarked on what they see as a noble mission — to get him out of office and put Joe Biden in the White House. They think they’re doing America a great big favor by abandoning traditional principles of journalism and replacing them with partisan support for the candidate they want to win… Journalism is the big loser in 2020.  Journalists have squandered what little credibility they still had left. And they may be the only ones who don’t know it.  Or simply don’t care.

https://www.patreon.com/posts/american-2020-r-43150116

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

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