NOV 3//ELECTION NIGHT//ACCORDING TO THE TRAFALGAR GROUP TRUMP WINS TONIGHT: WILL THEY BE RIGHT? STOCK MARKET IN USA UP (DOW UP 621 PTS AND NASDAQ UP 202 PTS) GOLD UP $16.85 TO $1903.35//SILVER UP 29 CENTS TO $24.27: GOLD AND SILVER AND THE STOCK MARKET ARE BETTING ON TRUMP//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1903.35 UP  $16.85   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$24.27 UP 29 cents   London spot price ( cash market)

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1907.80  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $24.19//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 
 
 

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CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

NOV GOLD:  XXX  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /:  XX

 

DEC. GOLD  $1910.10   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $0.80/ CONTANGO   ( $2.20 BELOW NORMAL CONTANGO)//GOOD FOR EFP ISSUANCE //

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER NOV COMEX CLOSE;   $24.32…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 5 CENTS CONTANGO//)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $24.40  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       :   13  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO (   10 CENTS ABOVE NORMAL CONTANGO//GOOD FOR EFP ISSUANCE )

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COMEX DATA

 
 
 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today: 55/70

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,890.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/02/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 11/04/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 5
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 42
661 C JP MORGAN 51
661 H JP MORGAN 4
690 C ABN AMRO 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 6 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 21 6
880 C CITIGROUP 2
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 70 70
MONTH TO DATE: 2,046

issued:0

GOLDMAN SACHS STOPPED 0 CONTRACTS.

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV. CONTRACT: 70 NOTICE(S) FOR 7000 OZ  (0.2177 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2046 NOTICES FOR 204,600 OZ  (6.3639 tonnes) 

SILVER//NOV CONTRACT

 

47 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 236,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 370 for 1,850,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $13,497   DOWN 52

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$13,744  UP 195 DOLLARS .

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GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD UP $16.85  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD..

GLD: 1,255.92 TONNES OF GOLD//

WITH SILVER UP  29 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

SLV: 559.798  MILLION OZ./

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 385CONTRACTS FROM 154,318 UP TO 153,850, AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG 40 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO CONSIDERABLE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING,COUPLED AGAINST A TINY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL. WE  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A VERY STRONG  STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR NOV.  WE HAD A VERY SMALL NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 215 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A TINY  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  170, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:   DEC:  50, MARCH 120 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  170 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE AS MANY AS THEY CAN!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

11.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN OCT.

2.695 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN NOV.

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE $.40) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (215 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE GAIN IN OI WAS DUE TO i)BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A TINY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A STRONG GAIN  IN SILVER OZ STANDING  FOR NOV, iii) TINY COMEX GAIN  AND  iv) ZERO  LONG LIQUIDATION. YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF NOV:

1665 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 1655 CONTRACTS) OR 8.325 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 832 CONTRACTS OR 4.163 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV: 8.325 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 1.06% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,537.37 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                78.360 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)

OCT EFP                                 69.73   MILLION OZ (STILL FALLING IN NUMBERS)

NOVEMBER EFP                    8.325 MILLION OZ (STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN)

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 83, DESPITE OUR STRONG $0.40 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAY.THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 170 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 215 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (DESPITE OUR  STRONG $0.40 GAIN IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 170 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A TINY SIZED DECREASE OF 385 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.40 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $23.98 // MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.786 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 112% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW NOV  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 47 NOTICE(S) FOR 235,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 817 CONTRACTS TO 541,198 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE  OF $13.60 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// MONDAY.WE  HAD SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX….THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $13.60. 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  81//

WE HAD A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 199 CONTRACTS  (0.6189 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 618 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .  DEC: 618; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 618.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 541,198. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 199 CONTRACTS: 817 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 618 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 817 CONTRACTS OR 0.6189 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (618) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (817 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  199 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)A STRONG GAIN IN OUNCES  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT NOV. MONTH TO 7.237 TONNES3)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ;4) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS AND 5) SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS OCCURRED DESPITE  OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//MONDAY//$13.60.

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

We have now switched to GOLD for our spreaders!!

 

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON DEC  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF DEC.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT. HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOV. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST INGOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (DEC), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

Nov.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 3331 CONTRACTS OR 333,100 oz OR 10.360 TONNES (2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1665 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 10.360  TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 10.360/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.291% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,695.53 TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 57100.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE EXTREMELY LOW)

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       178.49 TONNES (EFP’s AGAIN RISING DUE TO BACKWARDATION/LOWER FUTURE PREMIUMS//THUS LESS COST TO CARRY)

OCT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE.                        158.78 TONNES (AGAIN DROPPING)

NOV  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                        10.360 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A TINY SIZED 385 CONTRACTS FROM 154,235 UP TO 153,850 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING//// , 2) A TINY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG GAIN IN  STANDING  FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR NOV., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

EFP ISSUANCE 170 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE: DEC. 50 AND MARCH:  120  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 170 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 385 CONTRACTSTO THE 170 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 215 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.075 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.40 RISE IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 45.95 PTS OR 1.42%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 479.72 PTS OR 1.96%    /The Nikkei closed UP 318.35 POINTS OR 1.39%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.88%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 38.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and 40.17 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6785. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6799 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL VS OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25

 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  FELL BY BY A TINY 817 CONTRACTS TO 541,198MOVING FURTHER FROM   RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG RISE OF $13.60 IN GOLD PRICING /MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (618 CONTRACTS).   WE ALSO HAD  1)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING,  2)   ZERO  LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  A VERY STRONG GAIN  IN GOLD STANDING AT THE  COMEX  (7.237 TONNES)//NOV. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A SMALL SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 199 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. WE CAN NOW VISUALLY SEE THAT SHORTS ARE TRYING TO EXTRICATE THEMSELVES FROM THEIR MESS (“TRYING TO GET OUT OF DODGE”) AS LONGS DEPART THE COMEX FOR THE SAFER CONFINES OF LONDON.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 74

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 618 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:     DEC 618; FEB// ’210 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 618  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE.

IT SEEMS THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE EFPS DESPITE THE LOW PREMIUM ON FUTURE GOLD CONTRACTS.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 199 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 618 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 817 COMEX CONTRACTS.. THE BIG NEWS IS THE STRONG LEVEL OF NOV 2020 GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY. ( 7.237 TONNE) AS NOVEMBER IS A NON ACTIVE AND GENERALLY A VERY POOR DELIVERY MONTH

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $13.60).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED   0.6189 TONNES,

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 199 CONTRACTS OR 19,900 OZ OR 0.6189 TONNES.

 
COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

 

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  541,198 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 54.11 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1683 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1683/2200 OR 76.50% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 101,847 contracts// volume atrocious//

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  184,330 contracts//  volume: poor //most of our traders have left for London

 

NOV 3 /2020

NOV. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 
 
INITIAL STANDING FOR NOV GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
1206.175 oz
 
hsbc
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 0
OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
70 notice(s)
 
 7000 OZ
(.2177 TONNES)
 
 
 
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
281 contracts
(28100 oz)
0.8740 TONNES
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2046 notices
 
204600 OZ
6.3639 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 
total deposit: nil oz

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

total customer deposit:  NIL  oz

 

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) Out of HSBC:  1206.175 oz 

 

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

ADJUSTMENTS: 0 // 

 

The front month of NOV registered a total of 351 contracts for a LOSS of 555 contracts.  We had 718x notices filed on Monday so we gained a whopping 163 contracts or 16,300 additional oz of gold will stand in this non active month of November.  There is now no question that we are experiencing a massive onslaught at the gold comex. 

 

The big December contract LOST ONLY 2618 contracts DOWN to 414,992 contracts.  We will be watching December closely from this day forth. January lost 2 contracts to stand at 1 contract.

THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH INITIAL OI STANDING FOR NOVEMBER (7.237 tonnes). GENERALLY  NOVEMBER IS A VERY POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY(GOLDMAN SACHS) JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ALONG WITH OTHERS) ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE  FOR PHYSICAL METAL. GOLDMAN SACHS ONE OF THE LEADERS OF THE NEW LONDON LME EXCHANGE NEEDS THE GOLD INVENTORY FOR LIQUIDITY AND INITIAL CONTRIBUTION WITH OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE GOLD COMEX IS EXPERIENCING A MASSIVE ONSLAUGHT FOR METAL

We had  70 notices filed today for  7000 oz OR 0.2177 TONNES.

FOR THE NOV 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from
JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 70  contract(s) of which 51  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)
 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2046) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  NOV (351 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (70 x 100 oz per contract) equals 232,700 OZ OR 7.237 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of NOV

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (2046, x 100 oz +351 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (70) x 100 oz which equals 216,400 oz standing OR 7.237 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a NOV delivery month (a very poor non active delivery month).

We gained 163 contracts or an additional 16,300 oz will search out metal on this side of the pond.

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

596,952.410 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  18.433 TONNES ( A HUGE INCREASE FROM 10.6)

60,784.803 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

277,934.09 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.644 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               19.017 tonnes

67,289.041 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.588 tonnes jpm

total pledged gold:  1,613,198.634 oz                                     50.177 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 498.68 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 7.237 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

 
total registered or dealer  17,356,233.121 oz or 539.85tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  1,613,198.634 oz or 50.155 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,743,035..0  (489,67 tonnes)
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,743,035.0 (489.67 tonnes)
 
 
 
total eligible gold:  20,191,553.177 oz (628.04 tonnes)
 
 

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  37,547,786.298 oz 1,167.94 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1041.16 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 
END

 

 
 
NOV 3/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDINGS

NOV. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 
 
 
NIL
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL oz
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,289,902.840 oz
HBSC
SCOTIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
47
 
CONTRACT(S)
(235,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
169 contracts
 845,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  370 contracts

 

1,850,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
 
We had 0 deposits into the dealer:
 
 
 

total dealer deposits: nil      oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i)into JPMorgan:  nil oz

ii) Into HSBC  599,075.920 OZ 

iii) Into Scotia:  690,826.920

 

JPMorgan now has 190.787 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.80% of all official comex silver. (190.787 million/383.087 million

total customer deposits today:  1,289,902.840   oz

we had 0 withdrawals:

 
 
 
 

total withdrawals; nil    oz

We had 1 adjustment

i) Out of CNT:  600,184.910 oz dealer to customer

Total dealer(registered) silver: 134,855 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  383.087 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

November saw a LOSS of only 27 notices DOWN to 216 contracts. We had 68 notices filed on Monday so we gained 41 contracts or 205,000 additional silver oz will stand in this non active delivery month of November.

December saw a LOSS of 1814 contracts DOWN to 117,276 contracts. January saw a gain of 8 contracts up to 120.

 
 

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2020. contract month is represented by 47 contract(s) FOR 235,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 370 x 5,000 oz = 1,850,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT( 216) and the number of notices served upon today 47x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the NOV standings for silver for the OCT/2019 contract month: 370 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV  216)- number of notices served upon today (47) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month .equals 2,695,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE  NOV MONTH.

WE GAINED A STRONG 41 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 205,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND FORGO ANY FIAT BONUS AS THEY SEARCH FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND VS LONDON.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME : 33,649 CONTRACTS // volume  poor////

FOR YESTERDAY  83,200  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//  high//

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 83,200 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.416 billion  OZ 39.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO- 3.08% ((Nov 3/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO -0.83% to NAV:   (NOV 3/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/3.08%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.45 TRADING 18.86///NEGATIVE 3.02

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 3//WITH GOLD UP $16.85 TODAY:  STRANGE!!! A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1255.92 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP $13.60 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES AND THIS IS GENERALLY TO PAY FOR FEES (STORAGE/INSURANCE)//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.67 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD UP $11 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORYAT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.25 TONNES

OCT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.80 DOLLARS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.25 TONNES

OCT 28/STRANGE!WITH GOLD DOWN $30.50 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1266.72 TONNES

OCT 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1263.80 TONNES

OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1263.80 TONNES

OCT 23/WITH GOLD  DOWN 80 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWL OF 3.8 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1265.55 TONNES

OCT 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1269.35 TONNES

OCT 21//WITH GOLD UP $17.50 DOLLARS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1269.93 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.92 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1269.93 TONNES

OCT 19WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1272.56 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16//WITH GOLD DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1276.06 MILLION OZ

OCT 15//WITH GOLD UP $1.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1277.65 TONNES

OCT 14/WITH GOLD UP $12.00 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1277.65 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $31.70 DOLLARS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1277.65 TONNES.

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.13 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1277.65 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $31.10 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 8/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.00 DOLLARS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.88 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1275.60 TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1275.60 TONNES

OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 9.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.19 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $19.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

NOV3/ GLD INVENTORY 1255.92 tonnes

LAST;  938 TRADING DAYS:   +315.37 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 838 TRADING DAYS//492.95  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

Now the SLV Inventory

NOV 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 559.798 MILLION OZ///

NOV 2/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 559.798 MILLION OZ//

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 931,000 FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 559.798 MILLION OZ..

OCT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.326 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS A 560.729 MILLION OZ..

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.09 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.791 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.403 MILLION OZ..

OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ//

OCT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ

OCT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.977 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ.

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 652,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.171 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTOR RESTS AT 563.519 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 563.519 MILLION OZ.

OCT  15/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 563.519 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.652 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 563.519 MILLION OZ/

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 105 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.867 MILLION OZ..

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL 0F 1.396 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.867MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 560.263

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.303 MILLION OF FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 560.263 MILLION OZ//

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 466,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.566 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 51 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.100 MILLION OZ//

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A  DEPOSIT OF 11.984 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.100 MILLION OZ//

OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.116 MILLION OZ//

OCT 1/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.489 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.116 MILLION OZ//

NOV 3.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

559.798 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

* * *

Corey Keller, International monetary metals consultant states that if the Comex fails so does the LBMA.  He is correct.  He heaps much praise for GATA in exposing the crime at both of these exchanges.

(Ronan Manly/Keller/GATA)

 

If Comex falls, bullion banking does too, metals consultant Corey Keller says, adding praise for GATA

 
 Section: 

 

1:07p ET Monday, November 2, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

International monetary metals consultant Corey Keller, interviewed today by Bullion Star’s Ronan Manly, suggests that the New York Commodities Exchange is the vulnerable spot of the bullion bank business.

“If Comex falls,” Keller says, “the London bullion market falls shortly after. The Comex is the Lehman Brothers of the collapse of the global bullion bank business. If they prop them up and Lehman never falls, we don’t have 2009.”

Keller says the Comex lately has been unable to deliver enough silver to meet market demand. He adds that the Middle East, China, Southeast Asia, India, and Singapore don’t need the New York and London metals markets anymore and it is inefficient for those regions to rely on New York and London for their gold. “They could decouple if they wanted to,” Keller says.

Keller also offers lavish praise for GATA, which, he says, is doing “Don Quixote kind of work. They’re tilting at windfalls that will never fall over. …

“They saw stuff that none of us knew was going on, and then we suspected that it might be going on but they might all be wearing tinfoil hats at GATA, and then we realized: Oh, my God! They’re right! …

“They were right and we should have listened to them much earlier. Everyone who’s in in the gold business who doesn’t want the price manipulated should probably kick in a few bucks to keep them going. …

“It’s been amazing what they’ve been able to achieve … amazing that they’ve been able to survive. They’ve been proven right and we all should be really impressed.”

So now that Keller has so kindly mentioned it, GATA needs and welcomes donations from those who aspire to free and transparent markets in the monetary metals as well as to limited and accountable government, and information on contributing can be found at our internet site here:

http://gata.org/node/16

Manly’s interview with Keller is 35 minutes long and can be watched at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ0s-eDCbGI&feature=youtu.be

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)
 

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

 

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

 

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

 
 
A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)
 

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
  •  
 

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

 

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

 
 

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED AT 6.6785 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.6799   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 45.95 PTS OR 1.42%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 479.72 PTS OR 1,96%

2. Nikkei closed UP 318.35 POINTS OR 1/39%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 93.58/Euro FALLS TO 1.1718

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 104.76/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 38.17 and Brent: 40.17

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.62%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.70% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.12%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.32: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.89

3k Gold at $1900.95 silver at: 24.26   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 123/100 in roubles/dollar) 79.31

3m oil into the 38 dollar handle for WTI and 40 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 104.76 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9149 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0708 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.62%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.867% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.649%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 8.5176..

Election Day: Futures, Oil Soar As Americans Hit The Polls

 

US equity futures, global stocks and crude oil surged for a second day on Tuesday as a “gust of optimism” swept across global equity markets as millions of Americans headed to vote. The dollar tumbled amid rising bets on FX vol while yields rose.

Emini were up 39 points, or 1.2% to 3,340, up almost 120 points from Sunday night lows. PayPal dropped 4.8% after it forecast current-quarter profit below expectations. Shares of big U.S. banks including Bank of America Corp, Citigroup Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Goldman Sachs Group Inc, which are sensitive to the economic outlook, gained between 1.4% and 2% in premarket trading, boosted by a steeper yield curve. The VIX retreated for a second day after touching a 20-week high last week on surging coronavirus cases globally.

“The election outcome will drive all markets over the next day or two,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management told Bloomberg. “How they move depends on the extent to which we have clarity about the results.”

After slumping to five-week lows last week, the S&P 500, and to a lesser extent the Nasdaq, began November on a strong footing amid rising bets that a decisive blue sweep today could hopes of a bigger stimulus package after the election, even though the latest PredictIt odds for a Democratic Sweep (Biden + Dem Senate) remains just a fraction above a coin toss.

“Currently, the market is betting on a Biden win,” said Christian Stocker, UniCredit’s lead equity sector strategist. “Under a Biden presidency, the U.S. economy should be more supportive for equity markets – an economy with more stimulus programs will be perfect for the outperformance of cyclical sectors.” Of course, analysts unanimously predicted a market crash if Trump wins in 2016 and everyone knows what happened next: the S&P has surged about 55% since Trump clinched a “shock” victory in 2016 as lower tax rates under his administration boosted corporate profits. Much of that will be undone by a Biden admin.

At the same time, traders hedged prospects of post-vote volatility, pushing a measure of expected swings in China’s yuan to its highest level in more than nine years.

Still, the competition in swing states is seen as close enough that Republican President Donald Trump could still piece together the 270 Electoral College votes he needs to stay in the White House for another four years. In fact, the latest RCP battleground states tracker show that the spread between the two candidates is the closest it has been.

 

Investors are also bracing for wild market swings in case there is no immediate outcome on Tuesday night due to a protracted ballot count or a disputed result.

Then, once the U.S. election passes, investors will contend with the Federal Reserve delivering a policy decision Thursday before the October jobs report Friday.

Looking at global markets, European shares extended their recovery rally on Tuesday helped by the sliding dollar with investors putting coronavirus worries on the back burner for now, as attention turned to the U.S. presidential election. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 1.7%, bouncing off five-month lows hit last week on worries over new partial lockdowns across the continent. Growth-sensitive cyclical sectors such as oil and gas , miners, banks and automakers led the rally – all rising more than 2%.

Among individual stocks, French bank BNP Paribas gained 5.5% as a surge in currency and commodity trading helped it beat quarterly profit expectations. Fashion house Hugo Boss jumped 6.7% after it reported a return to profitability in the third quarter and said it was focused on driving a recovery of its business online and in China. Shares in German meal-kit delivery company HelloFresh , which has more than doubled in value this year due to strong demand on the back of the pandemic, fell 3.5% after quarterly results. Bayer slipped 1.0% as it took impairment charges of 9.25 billion euros ($10.79 billion) and warned of higher costs from its settlement over claims that its Roundup weedkiller causes cancer.

A Biden win is widely considered supportive for European equities on expectations of a bigger stimulus package and better trade ties with the United States: “It’s reflation trade for European stocks,” said Christian Stocker, UniCredit’s lead equity sector strategist. “Currently, the market is betting on a Biden win. Under a Biden presidency, the U.S. economy should be more supportive for equity markets – an economy with more stimulus programmes will be perfect for the outperformance of cyclical sectors.”

However, Stocker does not expect the gains to last long as coronavirus cases increase at an alarming rate in Europe, pushing major economies like Germany, France and the United Kingdom to reimpose tighter restrictions and causing economists to cut fourth-quarter economic growth expectations.

Earlier in the session, the MSCI Asia Pacific Ex-Japan Index added 1.4%. Japan’s markets were closed for a holiday. Asian stocks gained led by the materials and energy sectors, after climbing in the last session. Trading volume for MSCI Asia Pacific Index ex-Japan members was 13% above the monthly average for this time of the day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.4%, driven by Kweichow Moutai and China Life.

Boosting reflation trades, oil held gains after jumping the most in three weeks on Monday on increasing signs OPEC+ will delay a planned easing of output cuts. WTI futures rose as much as 3.2% to $38/bbl in New York, and was trading 2.1% higher. Brent also gained as much as 2.9% to reach $40.10.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was set for its biggest decline in more than three weeks. The euro rose toward $1.17 and overnight volatility in euro-dollar surged to the highest level since March. Currency options traders are betting that the U.S. election outcome won’t be a game-changer for the euro, at least in terms of immediate market reactions. Commodity currencies led Group-of-10 gains, with the Norwegian krone advancing the most, as oil prices rose on broader risk-on sentiment and as OPEC+ inched closer to delaying a planned easing of output cuts. The Australian dollar bounced, after earlier falling against all G-10 peers after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates and expanded its quantitative easing program. The nation’s benchmark bond yields extended a decline.

In rates, the treasuries curve resumed bear-steepening as investors sought riskier assets with long-end yields cheaper by nearly 3bps. Large block sale in Ultra 10-year note futures during London morning further weighed. Yields were cheaper by 0.5bp to 3.5bp across the curve, steepening 2s10s, 5s30s by 2.5bp and 1.9bp; 10-year yields around 0.87% after topping at 0.879%, cheapest since June. Treasuries outperformed bunds and gilts by ~0.5bp and 1bp respectively.

Looking at the day ahead, though all eyes will be on the US election, there’ll also be data on US factory orders and durable goods for September and the ECB’s Knot will be speaking. Eaton Corp. and Sysco are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.4% to 3,347.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.4% to 352.70
  • MXAP up 1% to 175.45
  • MXAPJ up 1.4% to 584.09
  • Nikkei up 1.4% to 23,295.48
  • Topix up 1.8% to 1,607.95
  • Hang Seng Index up 2% to 24,939.73
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3,271.07
  • Sensex up 1.3% to 40,254.98
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.9% to 6,066.36
  • Kospi up 1.9% to 2,343.31
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.4 bps to -0.616%
  • Euro up 0.5% to $1.1695
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 0.636%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to 0.135%
  • Brent futures up 3.6% to $40.39/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,898.56
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.5% to 93.66

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Twitter Inc. put a warning label on a post by Trump claiming that a Supreme Court decision allowing an extension for counting votes in Pennsylvania would lead to cheating and induce violence
  • Large parts of Europe are preparing for tougher measures to fight the pandemic: U.S. Prime Minster Boris Johnson said there is “no alternative” to imposing a coronavirus lockdown across England to stop the health service being overwhelmed, as he revealed plans for whole cities to be tested to root-out asymptomatic carriers of the disease
  • The Italian government is readying new relief funding of at least 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) for businesses affected by a coming wave of new shutdowns to combat the spread of Covid-19, people familiar with the matter said
  • Starting Nov. 5, the Reserve Bank of Australia will begin purchasing Australian Government securities and securities issued by the state and territory central borrowing authorities in the secondary market under the A$100 billion bond purchase program
  • President Donald Trump’s and Democrat nominee Joe Biden’s campaigns claimed the inside track to victory on election eve, but girded their supporters to prepare for a photo finish in the hotly contested presidential contest
  • The virus continued its unrelenting surge across the U.S., with cases soaring in key battleground states ahead of the presidential election. France reported record daily cases as large parts of Europe prepare for tougher measures to fight the pandemic
  • Oil edged higher after jumping the most in three weeks on Monday on increasing signs OPEC+ will delay a planned easing of output cuts
  • Gold held an advance to trade near $1,900 an ounce ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. election as uncertainty boosted demand for the haven asset
  • The European Central Bank’s emergency bond purchases decelerated to the slowest pace on record last week, a sign that market demand for more stimulus is waning amid a rally in the region’s government debt

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asian equity markets were higher across the board after following suit from the gains on Wall St where all major indices were lifted heading into the US election as polls continued to point to a Biden win and with stronger than expected global PMI data also adding to the constructive risk tone. ASX 200 (+1.9%) rallied throughout the session amid the RBA policy meeting where the central bank delivered a package of loosening measures including cutting key rates by 15bps as expected and a AUD 100bln boost to QE, with the broad upside led by the energy sector after oil prices rebounded on reports that Russia is considering postponing the tapering in OPEC+ cuts until the end of Q1. KOSPI (+1.9%) was also buoyed as participants shrugged off a negative inflation print and mixed vehicle sales data from South Korea’s top 2 automakers, while LG Display was among the notable gainers amid reports it is to supply mini-LEDs for Apple’s iPad. Hang Seng (+1.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.4%) conformed to the upbeat risk tone after a mild liquidity injection by the PBoC and as all regional bourses joined the global rising tide, aside from Japanese markets which remained closed in observance of Culture Day.

Top Asian News

  • Malaysia Holds Key Rate at Record-Low as Virus Threatens Growth
  • Oil Giant Aramco Keeps Dividend Despite 45% Slump in Profit
  • Australia’s RBA Cuts Rates, Announces A$100 Billion Bond Buying
  • Thailand Approaches Former PMs to Head Reconciliation Panel

European cash equities trade with strong gains across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.9%) after the region picked up the bullish APAC baton and as traders gear up for the US Presidential Election (full cheat sheet available in the Research Suite), with the latest betting odds from Betfair Exchange suggesting a rise in Trump’s re-election chances to 39% from 35%, whilst FiveThirtyEight overnight projected a Biden win at 89% vs. 10% for President Trump. Back to Europe, major bourses mostly experience broad-based gains with modest outperformance seen in the France’s CAC 40 (+2.1%) and Italy’s FTSE MIB (+2.2%) amid a firm performance in the banking sector – after BNP Paribas (+5.5%) posted a +30% YY increase in FICC revenues on the back of a “sharp rise in credit,” alongside a “rebound in forex and emerging markets and a good performance of rates.” As such, this has lifted the regional banking sector which resides as one of the top performers alongside the Basic Resources and Oil & Gas sectors, with the latter on account of rising oil prices. The other end of the spectrum sees some of the more defensive sectors including Health Care lagging on account of the overall risk-appetite, albeit Travel and Leisure continues to bear the brunt of the impact from nationwide lockdowns in Europe. In terms of individual movers, earnings see Pandora (+4%) and Hugo Boss (+4.8%) higher, with the latter also flagging “exceptionally strong” Chinese business in October. Looking at some M&A updates, Suez (+0.6%) failed to materially benefit from Veolia (+2.0%) confirming its intention to make a public takeover bid for Suez at EUR 18/shr. This came after Veolia announced around a month ago a 29.9% stake acquisition from Engie at the same price. Meanwhile, G4S (+4%) rejected the takeover proposal from Allied Universal.

Top European News

  • U.K. Boosts Testing as Johnson Seeks Lockdown Exit Strategy
  • Dutch Fall for Covid Conspiracies in Warning to Europe’s Leaders
  • Italy Is Said to Ready $1.8 Billion in New Aid as Shutdowns Loom
  • London Has to Shelve Cross-City Rail Line to Secure Tube Bailout

In FX, another bullish session in prospect for stocks, oil and other risk assets has enticed Buck bears back out of the woods, while the looming Presidential vote outcome is also keeping the Greenback on tenterhooks. Indeed, the DXY has faded just above 94.000 and ahead of Monday’s 94.285 peak to post a deeper low at 93.622 vs yesterday’s 93.871 base in the run up to relatively secondary US releases that fill the void before the primary issue is known or the vote proves too close to declare and is contested.

  • AUD – The Aussie has reclaimed all and more of its knee-jerk post-RBA losses even though dovish expectations were exceeded by the Central Bank cutting the benchmark rate, 3 year yield target and TFF by 15 bp to 0.1%, while lowering the rate for Exchange Settlements to zero and unveiling a new Aud 100 bn QE remit for an initial 6 months and aimed at 5-10 year bonds. However, Aud/Usd has spiked from the low 0.7000 zone all the up to and just beyond 0.7100, while the Aud/Nzd cross has staged a firmer rebound from closer to 1.0600 towards 1.0675 as the Kiwi lags ahead of 0.6700 vs its US counterpart in advance of NZ labour data.
  • CAD/GBP/EUR/CHF – Also forging gains largely at the expense of their US rival, but the Loonie also deriving more momentum from the ongoing recovery in oil as it probes through 1.3150 before Canadian trade on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Sterling is within striking distance of 1.3000 again and retesting 0.9000 offers/resistance against the Euro amidst unconfirmed reports that EU officials may have made a key concession to the UK on zonal attachment methodology in respect of fishing rights. Nevertheless, the single currency is equally close to 1.1700 vs the Dollar having breached the 100 DMA at 1.1661 and the Franc has pared declines from sub-0.9200 to 0.9160+ following in line Swiss CPI readings.
  • JPY – The G10 underperformer, albeit without local sponsorship as Japanese markets celebrate Culture Day, as the Yen fails to sustain gains above 104.50 due to the aforementioned pick-up in risk appetite on the second day of November.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures continue their upward trajectory in early EU hours following an overnight session of consolidation, with prices underpinned by sentiment and feeling a second wind from Russia’s comments yesterday which suggested the largest non-OPEC producer is actively discussing rolling over current output curbs through Q1 2021 as opposed to a wind-down from January. In terms of upcoming meetings, the JTC and JMMC are set to meet on Nov 16/17th – with source reports/leaks likely heading into and during the events, followed by the decision-making OPEC/OPEC+ meetings on Nov 30th/Dec 1st. Over in the Gulf of Mexico, operations are resuming following the passing of Hurricane Zeta, with BSEE’s latest estimate suggesting 28% (Prev. 46%) of oil and 16% (Prev. 20%) of natgas production still shut in. Price action in the crude complex will likely be dictated by overall market sentiment heading into election, barring any OPEC-specific headlines and the weekly Private Inventory report. WTI Dec and Brent Jan hover off session highs around 38/bbl (vs. low USD 36.57/bbl) and USD 40/bbl (vs. low 38.65/bbl) respectively. Elsewhere spot gold and spot silver benefit from the Dollar’s decline despite the earlier positive correlation, with the yellow metal retesting USD 1900/oz to the upside at the time of writing, whilst spot silver regained a footing above USD 24/oz. Finally, LME copper trades firmer as the red metal coattails on risk appetite and benefits from the softer Dollar.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. 1.0%, prior 0.7%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 0.55%, prior 0.7%
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.9%, prior 1.9%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.3%
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 16.5m, prior 16.3m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

US Election Day is finally here. It comes 9 months after the first primaries were held back in February, and caps off an astonishing campaign that has witnessed the arrival and spread of Covid-19, the end of the longest-ever economic expansion, racial unrest throughout the country, and the installation of a new Supreme Court Justice in near record time. And as well as the all-important presidential race, congressional elections for both the House of Representatives and the Senate are also taking place today that will have a major impact on the ability of the new president to enact their agenda.

To give you the context heading into tonight, the final polling averages place former Vice President Biden clearly ahead of President Trump, with an +8.4pt lead in FiveThirtyEight’s average, and a +6.7pt lead in RealClearPolitics’ one. And for reference, that’s noticeably larger than the lead Hillary Clinton had in polling averages back in 2016 (around +3pts). Nevertheless, the US President is determined not by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, and it’s true to say that matters are somewhat tighter there than the national polling would imply, since Mr. Biden’s lead in the likely tipping-point state of Pennsylvania is just +4.5pts and +2.6pts in the two averages.

In terms of timings, the first polls will close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 11:30pm London time, but given neither of these are battleground states, the real action will begin at midnight when polls close in Georgia as well as parts of Florida. Then at half past midnight, we’ll begin to get results from the other swing states of Ohio and North Carolina, before 01:00 sees polls close in Pennsylvania along with the rest of Florida. If Mr. Biden were to take any of Florida, Ohio or North Carolina it would likely be game-over for President Trump, as all 3 states are critical to Mr. Trump’s map in a way they simply aren’t for Mr. Biden. Florida is also a must-watch as mail-in votes there must be received by Election Day, so all the early ballots cast are expected to be tabulated by 01:30, meaning that we could have a winner declared by 05:00 tomorrow morning in what is a critical state for the president.

However, if Mr. Trump is ahead in those three states (FL, OH, NC) or running competitively, attention will likely turn to the Midwestern states and Pennsylvania, as he’ll need some further wins here in order to reach the winning line of 270 electoral votes. But in Pennsylvania, two counties that account for 117k requested mail-in ballots have already said they won’t begin to count those ballots until tomorrow, so if it does come down to the result there, it could be some days before we know the final outcome. So whether we’ll be able to bring you the results in tomorrow’s EMR will all depend on how close the election is. In the last 3 elections, we either had the result by morning or the writing was very clearly on the wall as to which candidate would emerge victorious. If it’s a repeat of 2000, however, it could be over a month before we actually know who the next president is.

From a market perspective, it’s important to remember that it’s not just the presidential result that matters, but also who controls both houses of Congress, as that will affect the ability of the new president to pass legislation, not least on whether we’ll get a major stimulus package in Q1 of next year. While the House of Representatives is seen as an incredibly likely win for the Democrats (97% in the FiveThirtyEight Model), their chances in the Senate stand at a noticeably lower 74%, so there remains the possibility that we could get a Republican Senate alongside a Biden White House. Indeed, our US economists view that as the most negative outcome for growth next year, because Republican senators would likely remain resistant to a big fiscal package, as they’ve already done in recent weeks even with Mr. Trump in the White House. This contrasts with their view on a Democratic sweep of the presidency and both houses of Congress, which they see as providing the most fiscal stimulus to the economy next year. So it’s clear that control of the Senate will be critical to the policy mix we can expect to see in 2021.

Currently the Senate is split 53-47 to the Republicans, and in the event of a 50-50 tie, the Vice President casts the deciding vote. So that means to win control of the chamber, the Democrats would need to take a further 3 seats if Mr. Biden wins the presidency, and 4 seats if President Trump is re-elected. With Democrats likely to lose a seat in Alabama, the five key races to watch for Senate control will be in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina. It’s also worth noting that in Georgia, one of the races is a special election in which numerous candidates are running from both parties (no primary election took place) and none are expected to get the 50% + 1 votes needed to avoid a runoff under Georgia rules. The other Senate race in the state is also very close, with a chance of a third-party candidate keeping the winner under 50%, triggering a runoff as well. Those runoffs wouldn’t take place until January 5, so in the event that control of the Senate were not clear, then majority control could come down to runoff elections in a single state in January.

In the graph in the body of today’s EMR we show the three-day intra-day move of 10-year treasuries and the US dollar between election day and the day after the results came through. Interestingly between polls closing and 13:00 the day following the election, 10-year US treasuries sold off nearly 40bps as the market fear over a Trump victory turned exceptionally quickly to one of reflation. 10 days after the election they were +64bps higher than the intra-day Asian market lows on election night. That we haven’t actually got inflation is an interesting postscript but could this election be the tipping point to genuine MMT? The point of the graph is to indicate that big moves can happen around such events. Although we don’t have the Asian session data from 4-years ago, S&P futures fell -5% overnight on election night in the initial response to Mr. Trump’s victory, causing circuit breakers to pause trading, before sharply rallying to finish the day +6.1% higher than these lows.

Ahead of this critical election for markets, global equity indices rebounded yesterday as they recovered from last week’s sell-off, and by the close the S&P 500 had risen +1.23% as part of a broad-based rally that saw nearly 90% of the index move higher. Tech struggled to keep pace with the NASDAQ moving between gains and losses before finishing up +0.42%. Volatility remained elevated, however, amidst the uncertainty over both the election and Covid-19, and the VIX index fell just -0.9pts to 37.1pts, which is still above its closing levels throughout the entirety of Q3. Over in Europe meanwhile, indices saw even larger advances, and the Stoxx 600 (+1.61%), the DAX (+2.01%) and the CAC 40 (+2.11%) all performed strongly.

The strong performance extended across multiple asset classes, with sovereign bonds rallying on both sides of the Atlantic. Yields on 10yr Treasuries fell -3.0bps to 0.843%, while those on bunds (-1.3bps), OATs (-1.1bps) and gilts (-4.3bps) similarly declined. For bund yields, that decline took them to their lowest level since March, and over in southern Europe, yields on Spanish debt also fell -1.4bps to a 1-year low.

Asian markets have tracked Wall Street’s lead this morning with the Hang Seng (+2.08%), Shanghai Comp (+1.13%), Kospi (+1.45%) and ASX (+1.93%) all up. S&P 500 futures are also up +0.42% ahead of the election. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. In Fx, the Australian dollar is down -0.21% as the RBA reduced the cash rate by 15bps to 0.10% and said that it planned to buy AUD 100bn of 5y-10y bonds over the next 6 months. More than expected.

Though the coronavirus is likely to be somewhat lower down the headlines over the next couple of days, further restrictions were imposed in Europe yesterday as Italy announced a new three-tiered system in order to avoid another national lockdown. Shopping malls will close during weekends across the country, while secondary schools will be shut and Museums will close nationally. Other than these measures, Prime Minister Conte is resisting a full national lockdown. In the U.K. it was announced late last night that the city of Liverpool will be the first to have mass rapid testing on the population with the hope that this can be rolled out nationally in the weeks ahead. On the eve of the election in the US, Massachusetts Governor Baker has instituted new restrictions in his state. Residents are to stay home between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. except for essential activities, and many businesses will therefore shut at 9:30 pm and indoor gatherings at private residences are limited to 10 people. This comes as multiple states in the Midwest announced positivity rates in the double digits and hospitalisations in Houston, Texas are back at August levels. Click on ‘view report’ above to see the usual COVID-19 tables at the end of the PDF.

The main data highlight yesterday were the release of the October manufacturing PMIs from around the world. The ISM manufacturing reading in the US surpassed expectations to reach a 2-year high of 59.3 (vs. 56.0 expected), and the employment index also rose to 53.2, its highest since June 2019. Over in Europe the final manufacturing PMIs saw some slight upward revisions from the flash prints, with the Euro Area reading at 54.8 (vs. flash 54.4), and the German PMI at 58.2 (vs. flash 58). The problem is that this is backward looking now and also reflects a manufacturing sector less lockdown than services (80-90% of most western economies) are now starting to be.

To the day ahead now, and though all eyes will be on the US election, there’ll also be data on US factory orders for September and the ECB’s Knot will be speaking. Good luck resting ahead of a big night ahead.

end

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 45.95 PTS OR 1.42%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 479.72 PTS OR 1.96%    /The Nikkei closed UP 318.35 POINTS OR 1.39%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.88%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 38.17 dollars per barrel for WTI and 40.17 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6785. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6799 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL VS OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA/NEPAL

Big powerhouse China steals land from tiny Nepal.  Nepal is located in between India and China.

(zerohedge)

China Is Stealing Border Land From Tiny Nepal To Build Military Bases

 

China is again being accused of a blatant landgrab along the disputed Himalayan high altitude border region not far from where Chinese and Indian Army troops previously clashed.

This time it’s the country of Nepal that has accused China of stealing over 150 hectares sovereign of its territory, or about 1.5 square kilometers. Leaders of the tiny country wedged between the major regional powers of India and China made the explosive charge to the Daily Telegraph early this week.

“Why should China come over into Nepal, when China is already sixty times the size of our small country?” a lawmaker in the Nepali Congress Party, Jeevan Bahadur Shahi, said. However, it’s believed that thus far neither Kathmandu nor Beijing has officially acknowledged it because it would harm trade ties – a much more worrisome prospect for the Nepal side.

The entire country of Nepal is mountainous with extreme altitudes. Image source: Shutterstock.com

Nepalese politicians have recently accused top officials have seeking to hide the scandal for fear of the economic repercussions.

But perhaps most alarming is what the cross-border territory is to be used for by the PLA, as the Telegraph explains:

China allegedly began seizing Nepalese land in five frontier districts in May, sending members of its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) across undefended areas of the border.

In the north-western district of Humla, PLA troops crossed the border into the Limi Valley and Hilsa, moving stone pillars which had previously demarcated the boundary further into Nepalese territory before constructing alleged military bases. The Daily Telegraph has seen images of the bases.

Border identifiers were also allegedly moved by the Chinese in the district of Gorkha as well, while additional annexations Rasuwa, Sindhupalchowk and Sankuwasabha were also said to have taken place according to the report.

PLA Military camps and bases have also featured into the much larger dispute along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) which separates Indian-controlled territory from Chinese-controlled territory, especially in the Ladakh region, which witnessed hand-to-hand combat last summer resulting in at least 20 Indian troop deaths. India had accused PLA forces of setting up fortifications inside its administered territory.

 end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

AUSTRIA

One terrorist dead and at least one on the loose.  We have 4 victims after last night’s deadly attack

(zerohedge)

“At Least 1” Terrorist On The Run, 1 Dead After Vienna Attack That Killed 4

 

Now that the dust has cleared, police in Vienna have finally had some time to piece together more details from Monday’s brutal attack in the Central European city. Vienna is a European cultural powerhouse, but it has seen far fewer terror attacks over the last 20 years than many of its neighbors. But on Monday night, a gang of assailants struck at six areas in downtown Vienna, attacking pedestrians and police.

Overnight, the number killed in the attack swelled to 5, 4 victims, and 1 assailant, while 17 others were wounded in the shooting, The dead attacker was identified as a 20-year-old Austrian-North Macedonian dual national who had one prior terror conviction. Interior Minister Karl Nehammer confirmed that the prior conviction was for membership in a terrorist organization. The attacker who was killed, whose name was Kujtim Fejzulai, was sentenced to 22 months in prison in April 2019 because he had tried to travel to Syria to join the Islamic State, though he was granted early release under juvenile law.

At least one other attacker is believed to be on the run, Nehammer said. The terrorist who was shot in killed was wearing what authorities initially believed to be an explosive vest, though it “turned out to be a dummy”.

His apartment was raided in the night, authorities said. Though there were reports on Monday about a gang of attackers striking at six separate locations, it’s currently unclear exactly how many participated in last night’s attack. The FT and AP reported that it isn’t clear whether Fejzulai, a known ISIS member, was acting alone.

The victims included two men and two women. 7 others are in life-threatening condition from gunshot wounds and cuts. During comments made early Tuesday morning in Vienna, Chancellor Sebastian Kurz affirmed that the incident was “clearly an Islamic terror attack.”

“It was an attack out of hatred for our fundamental values, hatred for our way of life, hatred for our democracy in which all people have equal rights and dignity.”

Authorities still couldn’t say whether more attackers might be on the run. Workers were asked to stay home if possible on Tuesday, and children were dismissed from school until further notice. The city’s public transit was closed.

Some 1,000 officers were on duty to help with the investigation while the army was brought in to guard soft targets across the city.

The shooting started at around 2000 local time as people headed downtown to enjoy one last drink before new coronavirus lockdown measures came into effect. The assailant who was killed was shot at around 2010, according to Vienna police chief Gerhard Puerstl.

Kurz’s government ordered three days of official mourning, with flags to be flown at half-mast. A minute of silence was held at noon on Tuesday.

Thousands of videos purporting to show the incident were uploaded to social media last night, authorities said, including the video below, purporting to show the moment a terrorist was captured.

The video below was among the earliest to hit social media after news of the attacks broke.

Leaders from around the world offered their condolences to Austria, and condemned all violence tied to radical Islamist extremists.

END
 
UK//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//GOLDMAN SACHS/DEUTSCHE BANK
 
Goldman Sachs and Deutsche bank order UK staff to stay home as COVID 19
explodes.
(zerohedge)

Goldman, Deutsche Order UK Staff To Stay Home As European COVID-19 Outbreak Explodes

 

Just days after Capital One announced that all of its ‘call center’ workers would be allowed to work from home permanently if they so desired, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have ordered all of their staff in London (and for Deutsche, all staffers in the UK) to work from home until they hear otherwise.

Goldman Sachs said only ‘in-office essential’ employees would be allowed to work from its London office after UK PM Boris Johnson announced the new lockdown measures.

This represents a remarkable shift from where the bank stood in September, when it started to quietly move staff back to the office.

To be sure, Goldman in-office essential employees represents a tiny fraction of the bank’s 5,000 workers in London. Deutsche Bank, on the other hand, has said that employees who are eligible to continue working from DB’s UK offices will receive an email Monday evening with instructions.

An internal memo obtained by Bloomberg said only essential workers will be permitted to come to GS’s Plumtree Court building, according to an internal memo. Deutsche Bank also informed staff that only essential employees can work from all the bank’s offices in the UK. Gyms will remain open, for another day, but they will be closed by Wednesday,

Goldman, DB and other banks paused plans to bring bankers back to the office in September after outbreaks were discovered on trading floors owned by JPM, Goldman and Deutsche in both New York and London.

Before that, JPM CEO Jamie Dimon publicly leaked research from the bank criticizing working from home as a drain on “creative intelligence” displayed by the bank’s younger analysts.

Global COVID-19 Cases Average More Than 500k For First Time As Europe Outpaces US: Live Updates

 

While more than 100 million people have already voted in Tuesday’s US election, cases and hospitalizations have climbed in several swing states, including Wisconsin and Iowa, among others, in recent weeks, while deaths have edged higher, but not nearly enough to validate the increasingly ominous warnings from Dr. Anthony Fauci.

The most notable trend over the past couple of weeks in the west has been the acceleration of the coronavirus across Europe, leading to a wave of new lockdowns and restrictions, as both positivity rates and fatality rates among the biggest European countries have surpassed the US.

 

Source: JPM

Now that the final JHU numbers are in, it looks like the world saw 439,621 new cases on Monday, with roughly 84,000 of those coming from the US.

Even though the global number didn’t top 500k again on Monday, thanks to the US and Europe, the seven-day moving average of global coronavirus cases has exceeded 500,000 cases for the first time ever, just as total cases are reaching 46.8 million. Europe and the US have seen case surges in recent weeks, with American battleground states in the South and the Midwest particularly hard hit.

Across the US, most states are seeing case numbers rise, though there are some notable exceptions, including California, which has seen its 7-day average decline by 2% WoW, while case numbers soar across the northeast and midwest.

Source: mSightly

 

Here’s some more COVID-19 news from overnight and Tuesday morning:

Spain and France reported new records on Monday with the former reporting 55k new cases and the latter 52k (Source: JHU).

South Korea’s core consumer price index for October declined 0.3% year-on-year, marking the sharpest fall since September 1999, as the pandemic dampened domestic demand and a temporary government subsidy on mobile phone bills weighed on prices (Source: Nikkei).

Argentina will import 10 million doses of Russia’s experimental COVID-19 vaccine between December and January, as infections continue to climb in the South American country (Source: Nikkei).

A gauge of the rate of increase in coronavirus infections in Germany has fallen in recent days, though it’s too early to conclude that there has been a turning point, according to the RKI public health institute.

Bulgaria also reported a record number of Covid-19 deaths. New cases in the Balkan country doubled last week. Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, himself recovering from the virus at home, said the government isn’t planning a lockdown (Source: Bloomberg).

END

UK

The UK on high alert for another Muslim attack after two attacks in France and one in Austria

(zerohedge)

UK Raises Terror Alert Level To “Severe”, Meaning Attack “Highly Likely”

 
 

Days after imposing a one-month (at a minimum) lockdown, the UK is raising its terror alert level to “severe” (from “substantial”), meaning an attack is “highly likely” following Monday’s attack in Vienna, and the attacks last month across France.

Another suspect in last night’s attack was arrested in Linz, the capital of Upper Austria, just this morning, and Austrian officials have been suspiciously mum on the number of assailants who managed to escape the scene last night (one attacker was killed, at least 2 have been arrested). The death toll in yesterday’s shooting has climbed to 4.

Three people were killed in a knife attack in Nice, one of several attacks that unfolded last month, which prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to declare a crackdown on Islamic terror.

Assessments of threat levels are taken by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Center, which is part of MI5. They include:

  • Low – an attack is highly unlikely
  • Moderate – an attack is possible but not likely
  • Substantial – an attack is likely
  • Severe – an attack is highly likely
  • Critical – an attack is highly likely in the near future

To be sure, Wales’ two-week firebreak lockdown is nearing its end, but England’s lockdown is just beginning. People are already terrified  enough by the resurgence of the coronavirus across the continent. The British terror level was finally lowered to substantial in November 2019 from severe for the first time in 5 years. Severe is the second-highest level, with only “critical” above it.

Though an attack is now deemed “likely”, the alert doesn’t offer any advice other than for Britons to remain ‘alert’.

Home Secretary Priti Patel described the move as a “precautionary measure” and said it was “not based on any specific threat”.

“The public should continue to remain vigilant and report any suspicious activity to the police,” she said.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN/RUSSIA/TURKEY
 
Russia has drawn its red line: they will come to the assistance of Armenia if Azerbaijan goes beyond the Nagorno Karabakh region
(zerohedge)

Russia Vows “All Necessary Assistance” To Armenia In Nagorno-Karabakh, Threatening Regional War

 

In a major weekend development Russia said that should Azerbaijan spread its military operations against Armenia beyond the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, it will give “all necessary assistance” to Armenia, with which Moscow has a defense pact:

Russia would be prepared to render “all necessary assistance” to treaty partner Armenia if the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict expanded to Armenian territory, Russia’s Foreign Ministry declared Saturday.

 

Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan with President Putin, via Kremlin.ru

Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated that Moscow “will render Yerevan all necessary assistance if clashes take place directly on the territory of Armenia.”

This after over the past month there’s been no less than three failed ceasefire attempts, with the last couple lasting a mere hours before large-scale shelling resumed from both sides.

The Russian statements makes the potential for the conflict to spin out into a regional war more likely, given Turkey has already made similar vows to its ally Azerbaijan. Turkey’s government has outright called for the “liberation” of Armenian ethnic held Nagorno-Karabakh. And Armenia’s military has accused Turkey of already actively supporting the Azeri Army through air support and foreign mercenaries transferred from northern Syria.

According to Moscow Times, “Russia has reportedly set up a small military outpost on the border of Armenia in an apparent attempt to keep Azerbaijan’s offensive from spilling over into Armenian territory.”

Armenia is clearly pressing for greater Russian involvement. “The prime minister of Armenia has asked the Russian president to begin urgent consultations with the aim of determining the kind and amount of aid which the Russian Federation can provide Armenia to ensure its security,” Armenia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Saturday.

Meanwhile neither side nor their international backers appear willing to back down or deescalate anytime soon. On Monday Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said the Azeri Army will not stop its operations in Karabakh and adjacent areas until total withdrawal of Armenian forces from “occupied Azerbaijani lands”.

6.Global Issues

 
 

7. OIL ISSUES

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1704 UP .0004 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.14 DOWN 0.406 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2932   UP   0.0047  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.3310 UP .0024 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 24 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1718 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE  UP 45.95 PTS OR 1.42%

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 479.42 PTS OR 1.96% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1,88%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 479.72 PTS OR 1.96% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 45.95 PTS OR 1.42% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.88% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 318.35  POINTS OR 1.39%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1900.00

silver:$24.25-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.867% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.649 UP 3  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 93.81 DOWN 10 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.08% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.05.%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.11%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.70 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 59 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.62% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.32% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1724  UP     .0084 or 84 basis points

USA/Japan: 104.51 DOWN .212 OR YEN UP 21  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3042 UP .0120 POUND UP 120  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 79 basis points to 1.3142

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed UP 6.6777    ON SHORE  (UP)..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.6818  (YUAN up)..

TURKISH LIRA:  8.4172  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.05%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from MONDAY at 0.890 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.672 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.41 down 72  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 70.33  2.21%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 300.70 POINTS OR 2.55%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 114.47POINTS 2.44%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 166.20 POINTS or 2.52%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 586,71 POINTS OR 3.19%

WTI Oil price; 37.69 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 39.80 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    79.18  THE CROSS LOWER BY 1.36 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 136 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.62 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price f0r Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  37.91//

BRENT :  39.95

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.886..up 3 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.658 up 4 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1701 ( UP 65   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:104.58 DOWN .143 (YEN UP 14 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.57 DOWN 56 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.30228 UP101  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.41

the Russian rouble 79.36   UP 1.18 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 118 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3151 UP 69 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.62%

The Dow closed UP 621.67 POINTS OR 2.31%

NASDAQ closed UP 202.96 POINTS OR 1.85%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  34.64 CLOSED DOWN 2.49

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.220%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks’ Surge Suggests Trump Win, Dollar Dives As Gold Thrives

 

For the second day in a row, stocks soared with Small Caps leading the way (up over5% in 2 days) followed by The Dow (some weakness into the close)…

As yet another short squeeze is unleashed…

Source: Bloomberg

This impressive two-day rally into Election Day is pushing the S&P 500 Index’s performance over the past three months into positive territory – a comeback for the indicator which turned negative last week – and that’s good news for Trump.

A rising market has tended to precede a victory for the sitting party 86% of the time since 1928.

Source: Bloomberg

The theory proved spot on in 2016: Amid all the polls showing Hillary Clinton’s dominant lead over Trump, the equity benchmark fell for nine straight days before the election week, cementing its three-month performance into negative territory.

And all this as the odds of a blue-wave tumble…

Source: Bloomberg

But hey, the sun’ll come out tomorra, betcha bottom-dollar…

The Russell 2000 is as its strongest in almost two month against Nasdaq…

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s this – China-exposed stocks have been notably underperforming domestically-focused US stocks in the last two days…which could suggest a Trump win…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX tumbled back below 35…

As Stocks rallied, bonds were sold with another big burst of selling as Asia closed and Europe opened…

Source: Bloomberg

With 10Y Yields within a tick of 90bps – the highest since June 8th (breaking and closing above the 200DMA)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s10s) closed at its steepest since Jan 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar tumbled on the day, breaking back below its 50DMA (1169)…

Source: Bloomberg

And HKD plunged after the Ant Group IPO was suspended, putting pressure on capital flows…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin bounced back above $13,500 today…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold surged back above $1900, erasing last week’s plunge…

WTI rallied once again, back above $38 intraday, ahead of tonight’s inventory data…

Finally, do not panic, unless you fear the ‘casedemic’…

Source: Bloomberg

And if you want an indicator for sentiment tonight – follow short-dated yuan volatility… a rise implies Trump more likely to win…

Source: Bloomberg

And if tonight is “contested”, 2000 suggests bonds rally as stocks get slammed…

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 
 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

 
 

ii)Market data/USA

USA factory orders not as robust as thought

(zerohedge)

US Factory Orders V-Shaped Recovery Slows (Despite Soaring Survey Hopes)

 

After a disappointing deceleration in factory orders v-shaped recovery in August, analysts (buoyed by ISM Manufacturing ‘soft’ data) expected September’s orders to reaccelerate at 1.0% MoM; and the final print actually surprised to the upside with 1.1% MoM jump.

However, on a year-over-year basis, factory orders remain 3.9% lower…

Source: Bloomberg

 

It would appear the ‘hard’ data is not quite as enthusiastic as the ‘soft’ data…

Source: Bloomberg

Core factory orders (ex-trans) disappointed modestly, rising only 0.5% MoM (vs +0.6% MoM), and all of this is before October’s more broad-based slowdown.

 
 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

National Guard troops arrive in multiple USA cities ahead of election ight

(zerohedge)

Watch: National Guard Troops Arrive In Multiple US Cities Ahead Of Election Night Chaos 

 
 

In preparation for any emergencies, including widespread social unrest following election results on Tuesday night, the National Guard has been deployed in several states.

Fears of election night chaos have gripped state governments for the last month, forcing Gov. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts on Monday to “activate” 1,000 Massachusetts National Guard members.

And in Oregon, Gov. Kate Brown, for the second time in two months, declared a state of emergency for the Portland metro area, citing potential social unrest surrounding the election.

Governors have also mobilized Guard forces in Texas, Alabama, and Arizona to major cities in their respective states in anticipation of violence.

Last week, the Pennsylvania National Guard was deployed to the Philadelphia metro area amid a couple of nights of social unrest following the police killing of a black man. Guard troops have been since positioned to handle potential unrest come Tuesday night.

According to NBC sources, at the White House, beginning tomorrow, a “non-scalable” fence will be erected around the complex with 250 Guard troops on standby.

As of Monday afternoon, Guard troops have been spotted in several cities, preparing for Tuesday night.

Guard troops in a Humvee outside a Target in Philadelphia.

Guard troops at “Park West Town Center shopping plaza. Looters have targeted this place in May/June and last week,” said one Twitter user.

No location was confirmed on this Guard deployment. Check out what could be special forces UTVs.

Retailers have been boarding up their brick and mortar stores from coast to coast in anticipation of looting.

 
 
Biden Campaign manager states that under no scenario will Trump be allowed to declare victory
Watson/Summit News)

Biden Campaign Manager: “Under No Scenario” Will Trump Be Allowed To Declare Victory

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Joe Biden’s campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon has asserted that, “Under no scenario will Donald Trump be declared a victor on election night.”

The quote was tweeted by New York Times national political reporter Shane Goldmacher.

The comment was made shortly after the Trump campaign issued a mass email asserting that the Biden campaign was planning to rig the election by not accepting defeat.

“They have no say in that process,” commented Jack Posobiec. “It is not ok for a campaign to delegitimize election results like this, regardless of which party is doing it.”

Meanwhile, Twitter has also reiterated that it will place warning labels on tweets that “make claims about election results before they’re officially called.”

Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro also publicly indicated that his state won’t be releasing final election results until three days after election day.

“I could care less what Donald Trump says, we will count these ballots in a proper way to be certified,” said Shapiro.

As we previously highlighted, pro-Biden analytics firm Hawkfish previously asserted that it’s likely President Trump will appear to have won in a landslide on election night but may lose after mail in ballots are counted, which “will take days if not weeks to tally.”

Big Tech, Democrats and the mass media have all repeatedly insisted that Trump will not be allowed to declare victory on the night, regardless of the Electoral College count.

New limited edition merch now available! Click here.

In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Also, I urgently need your financial support here.

END
 

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Somebody paid these troll farms in India as they creates thousands of fake Twitter accounts.

(zerohedge)

Biden Boosted By ‘Tens Of Thousands’ Of Fake Twitter Followers — From India

 

Joe Biden’s Twitter account received a ‘sizable boost’ within two weeks of selecting Kamala Harris as his running mate on August 12 – thanks to ‘tens of thousands of fake followers’ purchased from rural Indian troll farms.

According to Zenger News (via Newsweek), a large number of Biden follower accounts appear to have been created exclusively for that purpose – with many coming from small villages where English-speakers are rare.

A Zenger News investigation reveals that Biden’s increasing social media footprint in India came from the country’s infamous troll farms boosting his candidacy.

Kamala Harris’s ethic heritage is in part rooted in India, but her share of Indian and apparently Indian followers is far lower, about 0.12 percent.

Some of the operators who worked on the campaign spoke at length about how propaganda agencies in New Delhi and Mumbai activated a widely distributed troll network to amplify Biden’s campaign impact on Twitter. –Newsweek

“This was started as an internet café by my father in the late 1990s,” said Harshit Patel, owner of said troll farm. “Back then, men came in mostly for chatting in IRC [Internet Relay Chat] rooms and surfing porn. It was brisk business. But then internet became so cheap and everyone got smartphones and business petered out. We had to rely on passengers asking to print railway tickets, fill up online forms, and get documents photocopied. But that didn’t even cover the costs of maintaining the PCs and paying the electricity bill. Things changed in 2012–13 when [Narendra] Modi started his campaign for prime minister. And this became my main business.”

Patel’s troll farm opens at 8:00 p.m. after his main cafe shuts down – around 10:30 a.m. in New York and 7:30 a.m. in California.

Four of Patel’s employees take their seats at long desks lining two walls, open task sheets, and get to stumping for Biden.

Using aliases—each worker controls several hundred—they schedule tweets, check engagement stats and, at the close of their shifts, fill up a spreadsheet with their analytics from the previous day.

Started mostly to serve the 2014 Narendra Modi campaign, India’s troll farm business is now one of the most decentralized and robust in the world. They offer nearly anything to paying customers, according to Patel: fake news, Photoshopped images, support and “hate” campaigns, and even incitements of mob violence.

“I came to this because of my ideology,” said Patel, who’s a member of the youth wing of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, “but then this became my profession. My wife got herself trained in Photoshop and now we offer not only these [trolling and propaganda] services, but also content creation” that includes making memes. Newsweek

“We don’t pick and choose. Joe Biden the person is irrelevant to us. We got a target in August to follow him and engage with his tweets, and we did. The agencies in Delhi who we work with don’t tell us any details, and we don’t ask,” he said.

In other words – someone paid Patel’s troll farm to meddle in the 2020 election for Joe Biden.

“There are so many levels [of subcontractors] in this, nobody can really trace anything back. We don’t even get paid through banks. We settle in cash once a month,” said Yajpal Yadav, Patel’s business partner.

“I won’t tell you how much we make, but what I will tell you is this setup is feeding all our families. And I don’t have to ever worry about a roof on my head or about paying my children’s’ school fees.”

END

Watch: GOP Poll Watcher Denied Entry In Philadelphia Days After State AG Says ‘Trump Will Lose’

 

A Republican poll watcher in the Philadelphia, PA was denied entry to a polling location despite having a valid poll watcher’s certificate.

In a viral video posted by attorney Will Chamberlain, which gained over 700,000 views in less than two hours, poll watcher Gary Feldman can be seen attempting to enter a polling station, only to be turned away by workers who claim his certificate ‘isn’t valid for this location.’

“Call the police!” says one poll worker, adding. “If you legal, call the cops.”

“I have a city-wide watcher’s certificate,” said Feldman, to which another poll worker replied “That’s not for this location.”

 

Poll watchers are allowed to challenge the identity or residency status of a voter in the event they suspect fraud, along with inspecting voting machines and making sure poll workers aren’t influencing the vote in any way.

The incident happened days after Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, tweeted: “If all the votes are added up in PA, Trump is going to lose.”

Interesting, to say the least. What did he mean by that?

 

Pennsylvania is a major battleground state this year, with pollster Nate Silver proclaiming that if Biden doesn’t win the state he’ll become the underdog.

“Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn’t quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options. … But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog,” said Silver.

Perhaps this is why President Trump has deployed an ‘army’ of volunteers and paid staff to watch elections in Democratic-leaning precincts – an effort organized by veteran GOP operative Mike Roman, a former White House aide from Pennsylvania who once ran a secretive in-house intelligence unit for the Koch political network.

Roman has organized what he claims are 50,000 poll watchers.

“Our Elections Day Operations are designed to make sure that everyone that is legally entitled to vote has the opportunity to vote, once,” said Erin Perrine, Trump 2020 director of press communications in a video aimed at recruiting poll watchers. “We all know that the Democrats will be up to their old dirty tricks on Election Day to make sure President Trump doesn’t win. We cannot let that happen.”

Meanwhile, President Trump was censored by Facebook and Twitter for a Monday tweet claiming that a Supreme Court decision allowing an extension for ballot counting in Pennsylvania “will allow rampant an unchecked cheating.”

What garbage!! Mueller went after Assange and Roger Stone for the DNC hacks but found no credible evidence to continue
This was redacted by the deep state
((
 
 

V) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Apple closing all 38 stores in England as country goes into new lockdowns

This closure comes shortly before Apple introduces its new iPhone 12 Pro Max and iPhone 12 mini handsets. It is also shortly after Apple introduced the iPhone 12 and 12 Pro. The holiday season is classically Apple’s most lucrative time of the year, so this latest lockdown could cost Cupertino big compared to previous ones this year… https://www.cultofmac.com/726795/apple-stores-england-closing-coronavirus/

 

‘I make no apology’: Boris Johnson defends decision to impose a second lockdown in England

Speaking in Parliament on Monday, Johnson said: “The modeling presented by our scientists suggests that without action we could see up to twice as many deaths over the winter as we saw in the first wave. Faced with these latest figures, there is no alternative but to take further action at a national level.”…

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/boris-johnson-says-no-alternative-as-england-braces-for-lockdown.html

 

Britain’s Boris Johnson: ‘No Alternative’ To Strict New Coronavirus Lockdown

The government said it would reevaluate the lockdown in early December.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/11/02/930398019/britains-boris-johnson-no-alternative-to-strict-new-coronavirus-lockdown

 

Apple announces event for Nov. 10 where new Macs with Apple chips expected

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/apple-announces-event-for-nov-10-where-new-macs-with-apple-chips-expected.html

Joe Biden’s fundraiser list includes more than 30 executives with Wall Street ties

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/01/joe-biden-turned-to-over-30-executives-with-ties-to-wall-street-for-he.html

 

Panic hit the Biden Campaign on Monday for the reasons that we have been articulating: the data is strongly in Trump’s favor.  On Fox last night, a Trump campaign official succinctly described the situation.  ‘Biden has NOT hit his marks on early voting.  Both campaigns know how many voters are left in the tank; and we have a huge reserve for Election Day’.

 

Trump Campaign Mgr. @BillStepien yesterday: So there has been a lot of bluster, from pollsters and pundits, about what we should expect tomorrow. President Trump has the momentum in this race and the math available to him to win on Election Day. President Trump is ahead of where he was in 2016, by a very key measure. It’s the measure that actually matters. Votes cast, and votes left to be cast. You’ve been seeing reports of Democrats being nervous, and well, they should be.

    Let’s start in Ohio, where Joe Biden is wasting a few hours today. Weeks ago the partisan makeup of the electorate was D +10, today it’s D +0.6. Going into E Day in 2016, the gap was D +2.5. Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400k net votes.

    Pres. Trump rallied in North Carolina this morning.  Democrats jumped out to a D +32 advantage during AB only voting. Today it’s D +5.8. Going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +9.7. Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400k net votes.

    Pres. Trump and Biden are then heading to Pennsylvania. Dems have banked A TON of high propensity voters. We have millions of voters left. Pres. Trump’s E Day margin needs to be significant and we project an Election Day votes cast margin of over a million for Pres. Trump.

   Don Jr. is in AZ today to etch the state into our win column. Weeks ago the makeup of the electorate was D +11.9, today it’s D +1.2. Reminder: going into E Day in 2016, the gap was D +2.5. Pres. Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 150k net votes.

    What about Florida?  Democrats jumped out to a D +18.8 advantage during AB-only voting. Today it’s D +1.  Going into Election Day in 2016, the gap was D +1.4. President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 500k net votes.

 

@amber_athey: The Trump campaign just said on a press call that they have the following projected breakdown in Pennsylvania: Biden leads by approx 750,000 votes heading into Election Day; Trump gets 2.6 million votes in Election Day; Biden gets 1.5 million votes on Election Day

 

Breitbart’s @charliespiering: [DJT] Director of Battleground Strategy Nick Trainer tells reporters that Biden campaign just outlined on a zoom call that said Trump was within one state of winning

 

NBC’s @mikememoli: NEW: @JoeBiden will travel to Scranton on Election Day for a final GOTV push.  He’ll also stop in Philly; @DrBiden will fly to FL and NC; @KamalaHarris to Detroit. Douglas Emhoff [Harris’s hubby] to Ohio [A huge clue to as how the election is going for Joe]

 

It is extremely rare to campaign on Election Day anywhere in the world.  It is banned or severely restricted in many countries.  Some countries have a ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ to not campaign on Election Day.  Trump plans to be in the White House today.

 

Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon on a zoom call with reporters: “Under no scenario will Donald Trump be declared a victor on election night.” [Tells you how Team Biden sees the outcome]

 

@amber_athey: The sitting Attorney General of Pennsylvania stating that the outcome of the election in his state is predetermined

 

PA Attorney General @JoshShapiroPA: If all the votes are added up in PA, Trump is going to lose. That’s why he’s working overtime to subtract as many votes as possible from this process.  For the record, he’s 0-6 against us in court. We’ve protected voting rights. Now, ignore the noise—vote!

 

@seanmdav: Before a single vote has been counted, Pennsylvania’s Democrat Attorney General is declaring that Biden has already won and promising to litigate the state into Biden’s corner.

 

“You know, comrades,” says Stalin, “that I think in regard to this: I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this—who will count the votes, and how.”  — Boris Bazhanov’s “Memoirs of Stalin’s Former Secretary”

https://www.liveabout.com/stalin-it-isnt-the-people-who-vote-that-count-3299175

 

The biggest campaign unknowns are in-person voter enthusiasm and party crossovers, notably among minorities.  i.e.: At DJT’s rally in Kenosha, WI on Monday night: 16,682 sign ups, 51% are not Repubs; 44.9% haven’t voted and 25.4% didn’t vote in 2016. https://twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1323447746339217408

Tucker Carlson: “Why did all those people (Butler, PA) come to hear Donald Trump… Millions love Donald Trump because no one else loves them… Donald Trump, in other words, is and has always been a living indictment of the people who run this country. That was true four years ago when Trump came out of nowhere to win the presidency and it’s every bit as true right now… Trump rose because they failed… If the people in charge had done a half-way decent job with the country they inherited, if they cared about anything other than themselves…Trump would still be hosting Celebrity Apprentice… They were incompetent and narcissistic and cruel and relentlessly dishonest.  They wrecked what they didn’t build.  They lied about it.  They hurt anyone who told the truth about what they were doing… Our ruling class is disgusting… A vote for Trump is a vote against them.  That’s what’s going on in that picture (of 58k people at DJT rally in Butler, PA).  That’s what going on is this country. [Full commentary at link]

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1323442799673593856

 

@SunshineSt8Sam: [Team Trump] @TimMurtaugh on why the polling at Fox News is terrible and why we haven’t ever given much thought to those polls.  Their pollster has been paid over $3million this cycle by DEMOCRATS who lost… in their party’s primaries

https://twitter.com/SunshineSt8Sam/status/1322979442868846597

 

Some MSM polls have NOT produced a final poll.  There has to be a good reason for not posting it!

 

Kamala Harris’ ‘equality of outcome’ video slammed as communism pitch

“It’s about giving people the resources and support they need so that everyone can be on equal footing, and then compete on equal footing. Equitable treatment means we all end up at the same place,” she said as the video ended… https://nypost.com/2020/11/02/harris-equality-of-outcome-video-slammed-as-communism-pitch/

 

Whitmer [Dem Gov of Michigan] administration tightens gathering limits after virus spreads

All dine-in establishments must keep customers’ names and phone numbers for contact-tracing purposes, starting Monday…    https://www.wzzm13.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/whitmer-tightens-virus-restrictions-amid-covid-surge-michigan-mddhs/69-82f0f8f3-92a0-4823-8f1c-8cc7f32b4850

 

Whitmer threatens up to 6 months in prison for businesses who don’t record customers’ personal info     https://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/11/02/whitmer-threatens-up-to-6-months-in-prison-for-businesses-who-dont-record-customers-personal-info-992086

 

Joe Biden, Kamala Harris Got a Big Social Media Boost from Indian Troll Farms

Tens of thousands of fake followers purchased on the open market from troll farms in rural India, an investigation has found… https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-kamala-harris-got-big-social-media-boost-indian-troll-farms-1544047

 

Newly Released Records Show Text Message Exchange between Kenosha DA and BLM Activist Spanning Almost 6 Weeks – In the many messages, it seems like Graveley is giving Cabal updates on the WI DOJ investigation into the Kenosha Police shooting of Jacob Blake and taking advice on how to handle the Kenosha riots. In one message, Cabal warns Graveley that “KPD is gonna burn out.”  In another message, the two seem to make breakfast plans. It should be noted that Graveley is married…

http://kenoshacountyeye.com/2020/10/10/newly-released-records-show-text-message-exchange-between-kenosha-da-and-blm-activist-spanning-almost-6-weeks/

 

Politicians are like diapers; they need to be changed often and for the same reason.” — Mark Twain

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you WEDNESDAY night.

EXPECT FIREWORKS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT

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