NOV 4//QUITE AN ELECTION: TRUMP TEAM ALREADY HIRED THEIR DREAM TEAM OF LAWYERS GOING AFTER HUGE VOTING IRREGULATIES IN BOTH MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN//GOLD DOWN $9.35 TO $1894.00//SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TO $23.84 //HUGE TONNAGE INCREASE AT THE GOLD COMEX UP TO 9.39 TONNES//SILVER OZ STANDING INCREASES NORTH OF 3 MILLION OZ// ELECTION HIGHLIGHTS//

GOLD:$1894.00 DOWN  $9.35   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$23.84 DOWN 43 cents   London spot price ( cash market)

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1904.50  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $23.90//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 
 
 

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CLOSING FUTURES PRICES:  KEY MONTHS

NOV GOLD:  XXX  CLOSE 1.30 PM//   SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE OCT /:  XX

DEC. GOLD  $1898.10   CLOSE 1.30 PM      SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC   $4.00/ BACKWARD   //GOOD FOR EFP ISSUANCE.

CLOSING SILVER FUTURE MONTH

SILVER NOV COMEX CLOSE;   $23.88…1:30 PM.//SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE SEPT//  :    ( 6 CENTS BACKWARD//)

SILVER DECEMBER  CLOSE:     $23.94  1:30  PM SPREAD SPOT/FUTURE DEC.       :   0  CENTS PER OZ  CONTANGO (   3 CENTS B ELOW NORMAL CONTANGO//GOOD FOR EFP ISSUANCE )

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COMEX DATA

 
 
 

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today: 103/111

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2020 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,908.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/03/2020 DELIVERY DATE: 11/05/2020
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 3
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 95
661 C JP MORGAN 101
661 H JP MORGAN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 7 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 6 3
905 C ADM 3
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 111 111
MONTH TO DATE: 2,157

issued:0

GOLDMAN SACHS STOPPED 0 CONTRACTS.

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV. CONTRACT: 111 NOTICE(S) FOR 11,100 OZ  (0.2177 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  2157 NOTICES FOR 215700 OZ  (6.709 tonnes) 

SILVER//NOV CONTRACT

 

109 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 845,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 479 for 2,395,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $13,780   DOWN 234

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.  :$14,045  UP 21 DOLLARS .

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GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

WITH GOLD DOWN $9.35  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINERS CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

GLD: 1,255.92 TONNES OF GOLD//

WITH SILVER DOWN  43 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND:

TWO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

I)A WITHDRAWAL OF 240,000 OZ FROM THE SLV

II) A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

SLV: 561.418  MILLION OZ./

 

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Let us have a look at the data for today

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IN SILVER THE COMEX OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 583 CONTRACTS FROM 153,850 UP TO 153,267, AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG 29 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO CONSIDERABLE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING, COUPLED AGAINST A TINY EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL. WE  HAD TINY IF ANY LONG LIQUIDATION, AND A VERY STRONG INCREASE IN  STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR NOV.  WE HAD A VERY SMALL NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 326 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW).

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A TINY  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  257, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:   DEC:  257, MARCH 0 FOR ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE  257 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE AS MANY AS THEY CAN!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

11.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN OCT.

3.235 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN NOV.

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE…AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE $.29) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE SOME SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY NET LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (326 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO i)BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A TINY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A STRONG GAIN  IN SILVER OZ STANDING  FOR NOV, iii) TINY COMEX LOSS  AND  iv) TINY (IF ANY)  LONG LIQUIDATION. YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF NOV:

1922 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 1922 CONTRACTS) OR 9.610 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 640 CONTRACTS OR 3.203 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV: 9.610 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 1.06% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2020 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          1,537.37 MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2020 EFP TOTALS SO FAR: 181.61 MILLION OZ

FEB 2020 EFP’S TOTAL :  ……     259.600 MILLION OZ

MARCH EFP’S …..                     452.280 MILLION OZ  //TOTALS//AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH)

APRIL EFP                               95.355 MILLION OZ.  (EX. FOR PHYSICALS BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY EFP FINAL:                     77.27 MILLION OZ

JUNE EFP                              71.15 MILLION OZ.

JULY EFP                               133.95 MILLION OZ/ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO RISE EXPONENTIALLY AGAIN)

AUGUST EFP                         127.46 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS STARTING TO DECREASE AGAIN)

SEPT EFP                                78.360 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DRAMATICALLY FALLING OFF A CLIFF)

OCT EFP                                 69.73   MILLION OZ (STILL FALLING IN NUMBERS)

NOVEMBER EFP                    9.610 MILLION OZ (STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN)

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 583, DESPITE OUR STRONG $0.29 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAY.THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 257 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL SIZED 326 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (DESPITE OUR  STRONG $0.29 GAIN IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e 257 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A TINY SIZED DECREASE OF 583 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.29 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $24.27 // TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.786 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 112% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW NOV  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 109 NOTICE(S) FOR 545,000 OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3576 CONTRACTS TO 544,774 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE  OF $16.80 /// COMEX GOLD TRADING// TUESDAY.WE  HAD SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND A VERY STRONG GAIN IN GOLD OUNCES STANDING AT THE COMEX….THIS ALL HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $16.85. 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  81//

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 5880 CONTRACTS  (18.288 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2304 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .  DEC: 2304; FEB: 0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2304.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 544,774. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5880 CONTRACTS: 3576 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2304 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 5880 CONTRACTS OR 18.2889 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2304) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (3576 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5880 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.)A STRONG INCREASE IN OUNCES  STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT NOV. MONTH TO 7.237 TONNES3)  ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ;4) FAIR COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS OCCURRED DESPITE  OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING//TUESDAY//$16.85.

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

We have now switched to GOLD for our spreaders!!

 

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON DEC  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF DEC.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR SILVER..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT. HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF NOV. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST INGOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (DEC), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

Nov.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 5635 CONTRACTS OR 563,500 oz OR 17.520 TONNES (3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1878 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 17.520  TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2019, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 17.520/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.491% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2020 TO DATE   3,695.53 TONNES

JANUARY 2220 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE; : 57100.19 TONNES

FEB 2020 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE :            653.78 TONNES

MARCH TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE                1,098.93  TONNES  (*AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD ISSUANCE//22 DAYS)

APRIL TOTAL EFP. ISSUANCE:               243.45  TONNES  (EFP ISSUANCE BECOMING A LOT LESS)

MAY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     248.68 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE STILL LOW// PREMIUM COST TO THE BANKERS IS HUGE..SO ISSUANCE IS LESS)

JUNE TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                     192.06 TONNES (EFP ISSUANCE EXTREMELY LOW)

JULY TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                       313.09 TONNES ..(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS REVERSE COURSE AND ARE NOW INCREASING!)

AUGUST TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;                 150.78 TONNES  FINAL (AGAIN: RETREATING IN NUMBERS)

SEPT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                       178.49 TONNES (EFP’s AGAIN RISING DUE TO BACKWARDATION/LOWER FUTURE PREMIUMS//THUS LESS COST TO CARRY)

OCT TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE.                        158.78 TONNES (AGAIN DROPPING)

NOV  TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:                        17.520 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A TINY SIZED 583 CONTRACTS FROM 153,850 DOWN TO 153,267 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING//// , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG INCREASE IN  STANDING  FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX FOR NOV., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

EFP ISSUANCE 2304 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE: DEC. 274 AND MARCH:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 274 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 583 CONTRACTS TO THE 257 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 326 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.630 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.29 RISE IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.37 PTS OR .19%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 53.59 PTS OR .24%    /The Nikkei closed UP 399.75 POINTS OR 1.72%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.04%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 38.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 40.75 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6546. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6527 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY BY A FAIR 3576 CONTRACTS TO 544,774 MOVING FURTHER FROM   RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG RISE OF $16.85 IN GOLD PRICING /MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING/). WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2304 CONTRACTS).   WE ALSO HAD  1)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING,  2)   ZERO  LONG LIQUIDATION  AND 3)  A HUGE GAIN  IN GOLD STANDING AT THE  COMEX  ( NOW STANDING AT 9.392 TONNES)//NOV. DELIVERY MONTH (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7219 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. WE CAN NOW VISUALLY SEE THAT SHORTS ARE TRYING TO EXTRICATE THEMSELVES FROM THEIR MESS (“TRYING TO GET OUT OF DODGE”) AS LONGS DEPART THE COMEX FOR THE SAFER CONFINES OF LONDON.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT 74

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2304 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:     DEC 2304; FEB// ’21 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2304  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE.

IT SEEMS THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE EFPS DESPITE THE LOW PREMIUM ON FUTURE GOLD CONTRACTS.

 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 5880 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2304 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED 3576 COMEX CONTRACTS.. THE BIG NEWS IS THE STRONG LEVEL OF NOV 2020 GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY. ( 9.392 TONNE) AS NOVEMBER IS A NON ACTIVE AND GENERALLY A VERY POOR DELIVERY MONTH

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $16.85).  AND, THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED   18.289 TONNES,

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 5880 CONTRACTS OR 588,000 OZ OR 18.289 TONNES.

 
COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCTION)

 

THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  544,774 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 54.47 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1694 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1694/2200 OR 77.01% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 299,541 contracts// volume ok//election//

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  194,108 contracts//  volume: poor //most of our traders have left for London

 

NOV 4 /2020

NOV. GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 
 
INITIAL STANDING FOR NOV GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
nil oz
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil
OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
111 notice(s)
 
 11,100 OZ
(0.345 TONNES)
 
 
 
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
853 contracts
(85,300 oz)
2.653 TONNES
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2157 notices
 
215,700 OZ
6.709 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 
total deposit: nil oz

 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

total customer deposit:  NIL  oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

We had 0  kilobar transactions  +

ADJUSTMENTS: 0 // 

The front month of NOV registered a total of 964 contracts for a GAIN of 613 contracts.  We had 70 notices filed on Tuesday so we gained a whopping 683 contracts or 68,300 additional oz of gold will stand in this non active month of November.  There is now no question that we are experiencing a massive onslaught at the gold comex. 

 

The big December contract LOST ONLY 3371 contracts DOWN to 411,621 contracts.  We will be watching December closely from this day forth. January gained 10 contracts to stand at 11 contracts.

THE BIG STORY AGAIN TODAY IS THE HIGH INITIAL OI STANDING FOR NOVEMBER (9.392 tonnes). GENERALLY  NOVEMBER IS A VERY POOR DELIVERY MONTH AS MOST INVESTORS PREFER TO SKIP THIS MONTH AND MOVE STRAIGHT TO DECEMBER.  IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MAJOR ENTITY(GOLDMAN SACHS) JUST CANNOT WAIT FOR DECEMBER AS THEY ALONG WITH OTHERS) ARE MAKING THEIR MOVE  FOR PHYSICAL METAL. GOLDMAN SACHS ONE OF THE LEADERS OF THE NEW LONDON LME EXCHANGE NEEDS THE GOLD INVENTORY FOR LIQUIDITY AND INITIAL CONTRIBUTION WITH OTHER MAJOR PLAYERS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE GOLD COMEX IS EXPERIENCING A MASSIVE ONSLAUGHT FOR METAL

We had  111 notices filed today for  11,100 oz OR 0.345 TONNES.

FOR THE NOV 2020 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from
JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 111  contract(s) of which 101  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)
 

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV /2020. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2157) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  NOV (964 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today (111 x 100 oz per contract) equals 301,000 OZ OR 9.392 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of NOV

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2020 contract month:

No of notices filed so far (2157, x 100 oz +964 OI) for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (111) x 100 oz which equals 301,000 oz standing OR 9.392 TONNES in this  active delivery month. This is a HUGE amount for gold standing for a NOV delivery month (a very poor non active delivery month).

We gained 683 contracts or an additional 68,300 oz will search out metal on this side of the pond.

 

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  BRINKS

596,952.410 oz NOW PLEDGED  SEPT 15.2020/HSBC  18.433 TONNES ( A HUGE INCREASE FROM 10.6)

60,784.803 PLEDGED  APRIL 3/2020: SCOTIA:            1.3234 tonnes

deleted Int. Delaware pledge July 7  (600 tonnes)

277,934.09 oz  (some deleted august 3)         JPM  8.644 TONNES

610,238.285 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/   july 2/july 21               19.017 tonnes

67,289.041 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.588 tonnes jpm

total pledged gold:  1,613,198.634 oz                                     50.177 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 498.68 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 9.392 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

 
total registered or dealer  17,356,233.121 oz or 539.85tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  1,613,198.634 oz or 50.155 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,743,035..0  (489,67 tonnes)
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,743,035.0 (489.67 tonnes)
 
 
 
total eligible gold:  20,191,553.177 oz (628.04 tonnes)
 
 

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  37,547,786.298 oz 1,167.94 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1041.16 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

THE GOLD COMEX SEEMS TO BE  UNDER SEVERE ASSAULT FOR PHYSICAL

 
END

 

 
 
NOV 4/2020

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDINGS

NOV. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
2022.11 oz
 
CNT
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
546,552.500 oz
 
Manfra
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
85,782.400 oz
 
 
 
 
Scotia
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
109
 
CONTRACT(S)
(810,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
168 contracts
 840,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  479 contracts

 

6,395,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposits into the dealer:
 
 
 

total dealer deposits: nil      oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i)into JPMorgan:  nil oz

ii) Into Scotia:  85,782.400

 

JPMorgan now has 190.787 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.80% of all official comex silver. (190.787 million/383.170 million

total customer deposits today:  1,289,902.840   oz

we had 2 withdrawals:

i) Out of CNT:  1022.01 oz
ii) Out of Delaware:  1000.11 oz
 
 
 

total withdrawals; 2022.11    oz

We had 0 adjustment

Total dealer(registered) silver: 134.855 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  383.170 million oz

 

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November saw a GAIN OF 61 notices UP to 277 contracts. We had 47 notices filed on Monday so we gained 108 contracts or 540,000 additional silver oz will stand in this non active delivery month of November.

December saw a LOSS of 2284 contracts DOWN to 114,992 contracts. January saw a LOSS of 4 contracts DOWN to 116.

 
 

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2020. contract month is represented by 109 contract(s) FOR 545,000 oz

 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 479 x 5,000 oz = 2,395,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT( 277) and the number of notices served upon today 109x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the NOV standings for silver for the NOV/2019 contract month: 479 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV  (277)- number of notices served upon today (109) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month .equals 3,235,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE  NOV MONTH.

WE GAINED A STRONG 108 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 545,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND FORGO ANY FIAT BONUS AS THEY SEARCH FOR METAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND VS LONDON.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME :105,894 CONTRACTS // volume  strong////election

FOR YESTERDAY  69,486  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//  high//

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 69,486 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 0.347 billion  OZ 49.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER..

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO- 3.03% ((Nov 4/2020)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES TO -0.44% to NAV:   (NOV 4/2020 )

Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at +%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/3.03%

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 19.32 TRADING 18.83///NEGATIVE 2.52

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1255.92 TONNES

NOV 3//WITH GOLD UP $16.85 TODAY:  STRANGE!!! A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1255.92 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP $13.60 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES AND THIS IS GENERALLY TO PAY FOR FEES (STORAGE/INSURANCE)//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1257.67 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD UP $11 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORYAT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.25 TONNES

OCT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.80 DOLLARS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1258.25 TONNES

OCT 28/STRANGE!WITH GOLD DOWN $30.50 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1266.72 TONNES

OCT 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1263.80 TONNES

OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1263.80 TONNES

OCT 23/WITH GOLD  DOWN 80 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWL OF 3.8 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1265.55 TONNES

OCT 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1269.35 TONNES

OCT 21//WITH GOLD UP $17.50 DOLLARS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1269.93 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.92 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1269.93 TONNES

OCT 19WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1272.56 MILLION OZ//

OCT 16//WITH GOLD DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.59 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1276.06 MILLION OZ

OCT 15//WITH GOLD UP $1.10 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1277.65 TONNES

OCT 14/WITH GOLD UP $12.00 : NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1277.65 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $31.70 DOLLARS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1277.65 TONNES.

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.13 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1277.65 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $31.10 TODAY/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 8/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.00 DOLLARS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.88 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1271.52 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1275.60 TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1275.60 TONNES

OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 9.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1278.19 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $19.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1268.89 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at

NOV4/ GLD INVENTORY 1255.92 tonnes

LAST;  939 TRADING DAYS:   +315.37 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 839 TRADING DAYS//492.95  TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

Now the SLV Inventory

NOV 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:  A) WITHDRAWAL OF 240,000 OZ FROM SLV//// AND THEN B) A DEPOSIT OF 1.83 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.418 MILLION OZ

NOV 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 559.798 MILLION OZ///

NOV 2/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 559.798 MILLION OZ//

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 931,000 FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 559.798 MILLION OZ..

OCT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.326 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS A 560.729 MILLION OZ..

OCT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.09 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.791 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.403 MILLION OZ..

OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ//

OCT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ

OCT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.977 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.194 MILLION OZ.

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 652,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 564.171 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTOR RESTS AT 563.519 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 563.519 MILLION OZ.

OCT  15/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 563.519 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.652 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 563.519 MILLION OZ/

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 105 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.867 MILLION OZ..

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL 0F 1.396 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.867MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 560.263

OCT 8/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.303 MILLION OF FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 560.263 MILLION OZ//

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 466,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.566 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 51 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.100 MILLION OZ//

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A  DEPOSIT OF 11.984 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.100 MILLION OZ//

OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.116 MILLION OZ//

OCT 1/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.489 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.116 MILLION OZ//

NOV 4.2020:

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

561.418 MILLION OZ

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

ChartWatch] Gold and Silver to Explode Higher Regardless of the US Election Result?

Today we are taking our weekly look at the charts for gold and silver.

After what has been the most unusual campaign season for both candidates, election day has finally arrived.

Regardless of your political persuasions, both gold and silver look to be setting up for an explosive move higher.

First let’s take a look at the gold price chart…

GoldCore Gold Chart

After pulling back from its all-time high of approx. $2,065, gold has consolidated and seems to have formed a nice base. It has been trading in a range between approximately $1,860 and $1,930, with the lower support level proving strong.

The uncertainty of the election result, coupled with the indecision of the next stimulus package has left many investors on the side lines for now, but we are seeing some bullish signals building. Having bounced off the $1,860 support level gold looks set to retest both short term resistance (approx. $1,910) and the converging 20 day and 50 day moving averages.

 

A Drawn-Out or Contested Election Result Would Weigh Heavily on Markets

 

A clear break above these levels could see momentum buying testing the $1,930 level and then $1,975 and beyond and signal the next leg higher in this bull market.

However, a drawn out or contested election result would weigh heavily on stock markets and by extension precious metals markets and push gold lower to test the $1,860 level. A close below this level opens up a retracement to $1,810 or even a test of the 200 day moving average at $1,775.

 

GoldCore Silver Chart

While not as clear cut as the gold chart, silver is showing some bullish signals also.

Silver has traded recently in a range between approximately $22.80 and $25.00. More recently the $24.40 level has proved to be decent resistance to a move higher. The 20 day and 50 day moving averages are converging slower than gold due to the additional volatility that we always see in silver, however the downward sloping resistance line has been tested a few times and has held well.

Silver to Quickly Move Above $27

If the precious metals markets were to take positive signal from the election process and result, a break above the $25.00 level is on the cards in the short-term with a relatively quick move higher to $27.00 and above.

However, the trend support line that has been in place since the March lows was recently breached showing that silver could still be vulnerable to a move lower. And a close below $22.80 exposes us to the fact that there is little technical support before $19.50.

The markets do not like indecision. Lack of clarity will cause increased volatility over the next few weeks. Regardless of which candidate wins the long term prospects for both gold and silver are solid but in the short-term there may be some short lived storms as the bulls and bears fight for supremacy in the precious metals markets.

 

GOLD PRICES (USD, GBP & EUR – AM/ PM LBMA Fix)

02-Nov-20 1886.75 1889.90 1460.34 1463.16 1620.72 1624.50
30-Oct-20 1875.80 1881.85 1448.12 1453.92 1607.19 1611.24
29-Oct-20 1876.85 1870.30 1444.24 1447.05 1600.58 1601.16
28-Oct-20 1896.85 1869.95 1461.71 1439.30 1614.22 1593.38
27-Oct-20 1898.90 1905.70 1458.73 1461.29 1607.80 1611.60
26-Oct-20 1901.60 1898.45 1456.44 1460.29 1609.70 1607.61
23-Oct-20 1910.60 1903.65 1458.74 1457.05 1612.36 1608.20
22-Oct-20 1916.85 1900.95 1463.71 1451.76 1618.97 1608.39
21-Oct-20 1918.95 1924.15 1470.68 1466.59 1619.98 1622.44
20-Oct-20 1906.35 1898.40 1469.61 1464.05 1615.44 1606.43

 

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END

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Ed Steer and Ted Butler finally make it to Lawrie Williams list of recommended precious metals advisory services

(Sharp Pixley/GATA)

Ed Steer, Ted Butler make Lawrie Williams’ list

 
 Section: 

 

1:20p ET Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion dealer Sharps Pixley’s market commentator, Lawrie Williams, today includes GATA board member Ed Steer and silver market analyst Ted Butler on his list of monetary metals market analysts whose work he finds most valuable. Williams’ commentary is headlined “Recommended Precious Metals Advisory Services” and it’s posted at Sharps Pixley here:

https://www.sharpspixley.com/articles/lawrie-williams-recommended-precio…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Mexican citizens buying a huge amount of one ounce silver Mexican libertads

(Hugo)

Hugo Salinas Price: Strong demand for silver coins in Mexico

 
 Section: 

 

3:22p ET Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Hugo Salinas Price of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver reports today that the public in Mexico appears to be buying about 3 1/2 times more 1-ounce silver Libertad coins than it is selling.

Salinas Price adds that the issuer of the Libertad, the Mexican central bank, the Banco de Mexico, expects that its supply of the world-famous coin will be exhausted by year-end.

When pesos are converted to dollars, the retail price of the coin appears to be around $28.40, about $4.36 more than the so-called “spot” price of silver but comparable to offers on U.S. silver eagles in the United States.

Salinas Price’s report is headlined “About Libertad Silver-Ounce Coins in Mexico” and it’s posted at the association’s internet site here:

http://plata.com.mx/enUS/More/400?idioma=2

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Gold and silver will win the election

 
 Section: 

 

3:32p ET Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Writing at Sprott Money, Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report explains why he thinks gold and silver will win the U.S. election today, as the country runs trillions of dollars in federal budget deficits, promptly monetized by the Federal Reserve, no matter which party controls the presidency and Congress.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Election Day” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Election-Day-Craig-Hemke-November-03-20…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

J Johnson’s commodity report

https://www.jsmineset.com/2020/11/04/ready-for-the-big-red-release-button/

 

Ready For The Big Red Release Button?

 

Posted November 4th, 2020 at 8:28 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

 

Great and Wonderful Day after the election Folks,

 

      Gold is recovering from the China open, when the prices were clobbered down $28.60 to $1,881.80 and is now trading at $1,904.10, down $6.30 with the high at $1,917.90. Silver was taken all the way down to $23.26 (down $1.069) before its recovery with its trade at $24.025, down 30.9 cents with the high way up at $24.62. The US Dollar ain’t budging at all, as if our election no longer matters, with the trade at 93.54, down 2 points after it rallied up to 94.33 with the low at 93.415. Of course, all this happened already before 5 am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after the vote counters stopped counting when they got the outcome they wanted. If it’s a true statement, and these counters virtually stopped once they got their assigned outcome, there should be enough evidence to come out, and presented to the Supreme Court.

 

      In Venezuela, Gold is now getting an additional 25.97 Bolivar per ounce with the last quote at 19,017.20 with Silver losing 3.096 Bolivar with the last price at 239.950. Argentina’s price for Gold is still gaining more Peso’s with the last trade at 150,215.42, up 597.58 A-Peso’s with Silver’s price at 1,894.51, a loss of 20.25 A-Peso’s. The Turkish Lira’s price for Gold is now at 16,057.03 showing a 159.33 T-Lira pullback with Silver’s last trade at 202.523, a 5.02 T-Lira loss.

 

      November Silver’s Delivery Demands now has 277 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 15 already up on the board with a trading range between $24.005 and $23.68 with the last buy at $24, a loss of 30.5 cents so far today. Yesterday’s activity was something else. We had a Volume of 108 up on the board with no price, then the outcast came in and bought a single contract with the buy price at $24.16, a gain of 15.4 cents, yet the papers closed the prices higher at $24.305, a gain of 29.9 cents at the Comex close, which in turn, raised the Delivery demands by 61 contracts. As the physical demands climb, the Overall Open Interest continued dropping with 742 contracts leaving 153,577 shorts to go against the physicals.

 

      November Gold’s Delivery Demands now shows a count of 964 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts and with a Volume of 11 already up on the board with a trading range between $1,901.30 and $1,885.30 with the last swap at $1,886.30, down $22.20. Yesterday’s delivery activity happened with the first 711 swaps getting special treatment with that 10-cent trading range between $1,891.60 and $1,891.50, then the last single lot trade came in at $1,905.70, a gain of $15.30 making the swap count 712 with the Comex Calculated Close made at $1,908.50, a gain of $18.10. Mr. Resolutes spread purchase into the physicals caused the demand count to increase by 613 as we wait for that last bar to leave. With that jump in demand the shorts had to add another 4,212 contracts to add liquidity into the markets or Gold would have gone much higher, bringing this morning’s total to 546,113 in Open Interest.

 

      I am not happy with what I witnessed these past few weeks. Now our media services with big tech are starting to shutter more Conservative voices with James Woods example “Meanwhile Twitter blocks me for saying ballot harvesting is a threat to democracy, but this is okay?” with Kathy Griffin holding Trumps head being ok and considered free speech. I expect Trump is going to the Supreme Court in regards to the way this election was counted, I wonder if a certain party has the most fraud in count? Trump Blasted this vote-count delay as a “fraud on the American public”. We’ve never seen ballot counters stop counting before, and we have seen many ballots found in ditches that all happen to be Trump votes.

 

      If Biden truly won, then so be it. That may mean all of Hunter Biden’s sexual exploits and the money laundering trails are about to go away, or will it? Trump has that Big Red Release Button and he’s used it a few times to expose the fraudsters pretending to be employees of our government. I can see the future Biden team now; Lolita Express Member Larry Summers will be head of the Federal Reserve. Clapper, Comey, Brennan, Mueller, et al, will be reinstated to go ahead and do what they did in the past. Maybe I should brush up on Mandarin.

 

     What I gathered over the past few years, no matter where Trump went, far more people gathered than at any other time for any other politician. The crowds were as big as those of the rock stars of the 70’s and 80’s, and we’re supposed to believe this stopped counting count? Will Team Trump release more Hunter Biden evidence, like who in China took those videos or how was the money laundered, and who is paying for Antifa’s armor?

 

       Keep the faith, and hold on fast and tight to your metals. Truth can be hidden for a time, but then, BOOM, someone releases it, in Big Red Button Style… As Always …

 

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

 

 

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)
 

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

 

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

 

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

 
 
A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)
 

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.
  •  
 

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

 

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

 
 

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.6546 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.6527   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 6.37 PTS OR .19%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 53.39 PTS OR .24%

2. Nikkei closed UP 399.75 POINTS OR 1.72%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 93.37/Euro FALLS TO 1.1736

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 104.23/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 38.64 and Brent: 40.75

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.62%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.72% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.11%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.34: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.86

3k Gold at $1909.10 silver at: 24.10   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 36/100 in roubles/dollar) 78.79

3m oil into the 37 dollar handle for WTI and 39 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 104.23 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9104 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0687 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.62%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 0.814% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 1.584%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 8.43..

Futures Turmoil After Election Chaos Sets Supreme Court Showdown, “Blue Wave” Crashes

 

US equity futures fluctuated wildly as investors scrambled to price in shifting odds for Donald Trump’s re-election and control of the Senate after the president declared victory in an early morning announcement, warning he would call on the Supreme Court to stop counting ballots in states where he led, setting up a potentially protracted vote count which would cripple any hopes for a quick post-election stimulus bill. Emini contracts swung from a gain of 2.1% to a loss of 1.3%, and were trading up around +1% as of 7am, last seen just above 3,400.

While uncertainty over the outcome of the presidential race remains, there was virtually no doubt about the shape of the Senate where Republicans appear set to retain their majority, crushing hopes for a Blue Wave and a massive reflation trade as it will now be harder for lawmakers to approve a big new stimulus deal, which has boosted both Nasdaq futures, which was up 2.5% last…

… and 10Y Treasurys where yields tumbled from 0.94% to 0.80%,the biggest drop since June as the risk of an inflationary spike from a Blue Wave faded away.

In a night filled with drama which saw the president win both Florida and Ohio, but lose Arizona with races in Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania still to be determined, Trump said it was “a fraud on the American public” to continue counting ballots and he would ask the Supreme Court to intervene, even as he claimed to have won a second term.Trump’s statement draw a furious rebuke from Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon who said “The president’s statement tonight about trying to shut down the counting of duly cast ballots was outrageous, unprecedented, and incorrect.”

After leading in Wisconsin for much of the night, Trump’s lead fizzled and with 95% of the vote reporting, Biden now has a 21,000 vote lead, while Biden is up just 8,000 in Nevada with 67% of the vote. As a result of the reversal in momentum Biden’s betting odds at Betfair shot up as high as 69%, or roughly where they were trading when election results first started rolling in about 13 hours ago. In the interim, they had tumbled below 20% at one point late on Tuesday.

And so, after an initial burst of optimism that the election would be resolved quickly and Trump may emerge a shock winner for the second time in a row defying all the polls, with millions of votes in battleground states still being counted, and close contests in five key states, the election outcome may not be decided for days, or longer. It’s clear that the election is turning out to be messier and more drawn-out than Wall Street had hoped, especially now that Trump appears set to challenge the result in the Supreme Court.

“The uncertainties associated with a disputed election were what investors feared the most,” Nathan Sheets, chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income, wrote in a note to clients. “Blue-Wave scenarios are now off the table and the probability of gridlock has risen.”

In any case, the key takeaway so far is that Trump has performed better than polls guided, while Biden has not made as much progress in key areas as was expected. And, as David Rosenberg points out, “Trump managed to improve his vote count by nearly 4m from 2016 (66.73m versus 62.98m). He clearly has more than just a “base” supporting him. Or there are a lot of folks who feared a Blue Wave/move to the left. America is never going socialist. That’s one message among many.”

In non-election news, Uber and Lyft stocks were trading higher after California voters sided with the ride-sharing companies in a question over their business model of employing drivers as independent contractors. Shares in both companies rose more than 14% in pre-market trading. On the other side of the world, problems for Jack Ma’s Ant Group are mounting after yesterday’s shock halt to its planned IPO, after China’s Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said it plans to discourage lenders from using Ant’s platforms, potentially cutting one of the company’s biggest sources of revenue.

There was some good news on the virus front, with signs the outbreak in Europe was easing, with the German infection reproduction rate falling below 1, even as widespread restrictions remain in place across the continent. Another piece of good news for parents is that there remains little evidence that children attending schools does anything to raise their risk of contracting the virus.

Meanwhile, in rates, treasury futures remain near high end of a wide daily range, which unfolded in high-volume trade as U.S. election results showed a tighter race than polls predicted. The curve bull-flattened as traders unwound bets on a Blue Wave that fueled bear-steepening in recent days. Yields were richer by 1bp to 12bp across the curve with 2s10s flatter by ~9bp, 5s30s by ~7bp; 10-year ~0.80 % vs session low 0.763%; its 18bp range is biggest daily swing since March. Treasuries outperformed bunds by 9bp, gilts by 6.5bp; since London open UST futures volume is almost three times the 20-day average. The next move in yields may hinge on Treasury Department’s quarterly debt-sales announcement at 8:30am ET.

Elsewhere, the dollar erased earlier gains against many of its major peers, while gold slipped. In Asia, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. tumbled 7.5% in Hong Kong after China halted the initial public offering of Ant Group Co., in which Alibaba owns about a one-third stake.

Looking at today’s calendar, we get the ADP employment change data at 8:15 a.m, the September U.S. trade balance is at 8:30 a.m. October services and composite PMIs are at 9:45 a.m. with ISM non-manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. Oil traders will keep an eye on inventory data at 10:30 a.m. The U.S. officially withdraws from the Paris climate agreement today. Expedia Group Inc., Qualcomm Inc., and Fitbit Inc. are among the long list of companies reporting today.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.1% to 3,398.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 358.74
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 175.40
  • MXAPJ down 0.01% to 580.99
  • Nikkei up 1.7% to 23,695.23
  • Topix up 1.2% to 1,627.25
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 24,886.14
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,277.44
  • Sensex up 1% to 40,645.99
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.07% to 6,062.13
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 2,357.32
  • Brent futures up 2% to $40.50/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.9% to $1,891.66
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.4% to 93.92
  • German 10Y yield fell 3.0 bps to -0.65%
  • Euro down 0.4% to $1.1666
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 0.622%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 0.083%

Top Overnight News

  • The U.S. election was roiled by President Donald Trump’s false claim of victory over Democratic nominee Joe Biden even with millions of ballots still to be counted in battleground states, and escalated by his threat to ask the Supreme Court to intervene. As of Wednesday morning, Biden had 238 electoral votes while Trump had 213, leaving both shy of the 270 needed to secure immediate victories.
  • The presidential battlefield is narrowing to a smaller number of states, with both President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden still having paths to victory. Biden now has 238 electoral votes to Trump’s 213
  • Democratic chances of taking control of the Senate were greatly diminished after several vulnerable Republican incumbents including Joni Ernst in Iowa and Steve Daines in Montana fended off well-financed Democratic challengers in Tuesday’s election
  • Extreme election night volatility persisted in U.S. equity futures, with S&P 500 contracts swinging from steep losses to gains and back to losses, as investors worked to price in shifting odds for Donald Trump’s re-election and Senate races, a potentially protracted vote count and the implications for economic stimulus
  • A monthly survey showed demand at euro-area businesses fell for the first time in four months in October, led by a slump in services. That sector is being particularly affected by the new curbs, which are focused on restaurants and hospitality
  • U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to push fresh coronavirus lockdown rules through the U.K. Parliament on Wednesday, facing down rebels in his own Conservative Party who reject the erosion of civil liberties they entail
  • The U.K.’s dominant services sector expanded at the slowest pace since June last month, a sign that the economy was weak even before new coronavirus curbs were introduced; IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers Index for the industry stood at 51.4 in October, down sharply from 56.1 the previous month
  • Italy is poised to ban people from leaving or entering cities and towns in high-risk areas, likely including the financial capital Milan, as part of the government’s latest attempt to check the rapid spread of the coronavirus

A quick look at global markets courtesy of NewsSquawk

Asian equity markets and US equity futures were indecisive as participants digested the early results from the US election which have so far proved to be a tighter than expected race with betting markets even pricing in a greater possibility of US President Trump winning the election with markets even reflecting as high as a 65% chance President Trump winning the election. The results so far have suggested that President Trump has outperformed the polls, although results from some of the key battleground states are still to be announced. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was dragged lower by weakness in the commodity-related stocks and with the largest weighted financials sector pressured as banks adjusted to the lower rate environment, while Nikkei 225 (+2.0%) outperformed as it caught up to the prior day’s global rally on return from the holiday closure and with the USD/JPY-risk dynamic in play. Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) were negative as President Trump remained in contention for a second term and with weakness in Alibaba and HKEX shares after the suspension of the Ant Group mega-IPO which had been set to debut tomorrow, but with downside capped in the broader market after Chinese Caixin Services and Composite PMIs conformed to the recent slew of strong China activity data. Finally, 10yr JGBs are higher amid the overnight indecision and following improved demand at the 10yr JGB auction, while prices also benefitted amid a surge in T-notes which were underpinned amid a closely contested auction with the results likely to be prolonged.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Fosun Kicks Off Biggest Pharma IPO in India

European cash equities trade mixed (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%), after opening with firm losses across the board in light of US President Trump prematurely declaring victory in the US election, whilst  calling for voting to cease and stating that he plans to go the US Supreme Court. This sparked risk aversion across market as participants were seeking certainty from the election, something that did not come to fruition as the race remains tight with key battleground states to officially release results later this week, whilst the Senate race remains neck and neck. However, since then, the release of further projections in some states pointing to Biden has narrowed betting market odds, with implied probabilities suggesting a near-50% split for either candidate on Betfair. In terms of US equity futures performance, e-mini NQ outperforms (+2.2%) with some suggesting a reversal of the recent growth/momentum vs. value/cyclical trades that were placed on the back of a prospective “Blue Wave” which appears to now be off the cards, ES (+0.4%) and YM (-0.1%) lag in comparison with noteworthy underperformance in the e-mini Russell 2000 (-1.6%) as it bears the brunt of the unwind in positioning ahead of the election.

Top European News

  • Italy Readies National Curfew, Movement Bans for Risk Areas
  • CK Hutchison in Advanced Talks to Sell Tower Unit to Cellnex
  • U.K. Lockdown Set to Pass Parliament Despite Tory Revolt
  • Vestas Shares Slump as Trump Risk Spooks Green Investors

In FX, it remains to be seen whether Trump can pull off another victory against the odds, but for now the fact that he is still in with a chance of securing a 2nd term as US President is enough to keep the race alive and prevent challenger Biden from crossing the line. The final outcome may not be known today and markets are in the process of rewriting the playbook that was scripted on the premise that the latter would win via a landslide and perhaps resulting in a clean Blue Sweep. Moreover, the ongoing uncertainty has prompted a change in broad risk sentiment from outright bullish to cautious as is often the case when a major event hangs in the balance. Hence, the DXY has rebounded sharply from lows going into the election and as early vote counts came in, with the index now hovering near the top of a wide 93.070-94.308 range vs Tuesday’s 93.284-94.057 extremes ahead of a busy agenda on paper, including ADP as a proxy for NFP, but with the firm focus on whether Trump stays in the White House or Biden becomes the new resident.

  • AUD/NZD – In-fitting with the aforementioned too close to call battle for the Oval Office, it’s neck-and-neck down under for the dubious accolade of worst performing major between the Aussie and Kiwi. Indeed, while Aud/Nzd meanders within a 1.0707-1.0650 band, Aud/Usd has recoiled from 0.7200+ to sub-0.7100 and as low as 0.7050 at one stage, while Nzd/Usd is back below 0.6650 compared to peaks not far from 0.6750 in wake of NZ labour data revealing a steeper decline in jobs growth and spike in unemployment, albeit close to consensus.
  • CAD – The Loonie has also unwound gains vs its US counterpart after a wild overnight session and awaiting Canadian trade for some independent direction or at least temporary distraction from the 2020 US Election, with Usd/Cad around the middle of a 1.3300-1.3095 range.
  • GBP/CHF/EUR/JPY – Sterling seems to have survived another test of 1.2900 support against the Greenback, but is capped ahead of 1.3000 and well off dizzying 1.3100+ heights for Cable on the US Presidential limbo that poses additional hurdles for a UK trade deal and perhaps prospects of reaching a Brexit agreement with the EU that is already proving extremely elusive. Meanwhile, the Franc is back below 0.9100, Euro under 1.1700 and Yen beneath 104.50, but with decent option expiry interest at the 105.00 strike (1.4 bn) providing some support before any retest of circa 105.35 lows.
  • SCANDI/EM – The Nok is suffering from more pronounced fallout from the volatile, fluid and fragile market tone as it retreats through 11.0000 vs the Eur again, while the Cnh and Cny are both weaker on the basis that strained relations between Beijing and Washington are highly unlikely to improve if Trump triumphs. Elsewhere, the Rub looks somewhat betwixt and between against the backdrop of Brent recapturing the Usd 40/brl handle, but no conclusion in the US Presidential race.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have regained composure after experiencing downside on President Trump’s victory announcement alongside his intention to head to the US Supreme court. Price action overnight and in early EU hours have largely (and unsurprisingly) been dictated by the US election and accompanying risk sentiment, with WTI Dec back above USD 38.50/bbl (vs. low 37.26/bbl) whilst Brent Jan reclaims ground above USD 40.50/bbl. In terms of fundamentals, sources yesterday suggested that OPEC and Russia are mulling deeper output cuts early next year in a bid to strengthen the oil market, although no final decision has been made ahead of the JMMC (17th Nov) and the decision making OPEC/OPEC+ meetings on Nov 30th and Dec 1st. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver prices continue ebbing lower on account of the firmer Buck, with the yellow metal back below USD 1900/oz (vs. high 1916/oz) and spot silver sub-24/oz (vs. high 24.50/oz). The firmer Dollar has also weighed on the base metal complex with LME copper and lead on the backfoot.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.7%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 650,000, prior 749,000
  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $63.9b deficit, prior $67.1b deficit
  • 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 56, prior 56; Markit US Composite PMI, prior 55.5
  • 10am: ISM Services Index, est. 57.5, prior 57.8

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

If you’ve come here looking for certainty this morning then maybe turn away and look at the sports pages for last night’s results. Whatever happens now there are two conclusions so far from last night’s election. 1) this is one of the worst opinion polling performances in history, 2) this won’t have a firm conclusion for somewhere between several hours (probably days) to several weeks with the risk of court cases high.

If you’re looking for a sweeping balance of probability it is that Biden is slight favourite for the Presidency but the GOP slight favourite for the Senate. However expect such a scenario to take a while to be confirmed and be contested if correct.

In terms of the highlights so far, President Trump has now as good as won Florida and by a bigger margin than in 2016. The early signs it was going that way was the first indication early on in the night that it wasn’t going to be the smooth “Blue Wave” priced by the pollsters and the markets yesterday. Biden still has multiple pathways to the Presidency if he wins Arizona and a combination of Midwestern states, with Georgia still in play, but it would likely be close and likely contested. The Senate looks equally tight with Republicans ahead at the moment.

As we go to print Biden has just made a confident statement and suggested that every vote must be counted. At the same time Trump tweeted “We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Poles (sic) are closed”. This doesn’t suggest either side are close to conceding and fascinatingly Twitter has removed the above Trump tweet from its platform.

The Senate composition is also yet to be determined, with Democrats needing to pick up 3 seats if Biden were to win, or 4 seats if Trump were to win, to control the senate after having lost a seat earlier in the night in Alabama. They were able to get one seat in Colorado, but are trailing in North Carolina, Maine and Iowa. They still have a chance in Montana, but the state is likely to be carried at the presidential level by Trump. There are also a pair of Senate elections in Georgia, with one already heading to a runoff in January. Vote counting from that state is delayed until likely later today and the missing votes are mainly from the large Democratic areas including Atlanta. On balance, the chances of Democrats taking the Senate have fallen in the early returns of the election and is likely to remain with Republicans but there is still a chance for it to flip. News outlets continue to expect Democrats to retain control of the House of Representatives.

For some template for what to expect going forward with all this uncertainty, our colleague Alan Ruskin looked at the market reaction to the disputed 2000 election (see here), and predictably US equities, bond yields and the USD lost significant ground during this period. Also see my colleague Henry’s look back at contested elections through US history here .

So far markets have been remarkably calm and are surprisingly not really pricing much risk, or concerns around a long contested battle ahead. Fiscal stimulus looks a longer way off at the moment than it did last night. Nevertheless, overnight markets had a positive US tone shortly after Trump pulled ahead in the Southeast, with S&P 500 futures jumping over +2%, while NASDAQ-100 futures were halted after jumping +3.5% at one point, gaining nearly +4.5% in after-market trading. This move has come off slightly and S&P futures are currently around half a percent higher with NASDAQ-100 futures settling at +2.38%. The Dollar had risen +0.80%, before now sitting at +0.34%. US Treasuries are -8.8bps lower, as the divided government and/or Trump Presidency is likely not to be as bearish for rates as the predicted “Blue Wave”.

In Asia the Nikkei (+1.72%) is leading the gains as it reopened post a holiday while the Hang Seng (+0.31%), Shanghai Comp (+0.18%) and Kospi (+0.59%) are also up. In terms of Asian EM FX, the Korean won (-0.22%), Indian rupee (-0.31%) and Chinese yuan (-0.38%) are some of the biggest underperformers.

This morning we also saw China’s October services PMI data come in at 56.8 (vs. 55.0 expected) bringing the composite reading to 55.7 (vs. 54.8 last month). In other news, the Times newspaper has reported overnight that David Frost and EU’s Barnier are expected to advise that a Brexit trade deal is possible. The report also added that they are expected to recommend a new round of talks beginning in London from this coming weekend.

Though it might seem like ancient history now, risk assets surged yesterday before the polls closed in the US, with the S&P 500 climbing a further +1.78% as investors moved to position themselves ahead of the results. Once again it was a broad-based rally, with every sector and over 90% of the companies in the index moving higher, and banks stocks led the charge on both sides of the Atlantic. Other US indices performed strongly as well, with the NASDAQ (+1.85%) and the Dow Jones (+2.06%) both advancing, while the VIX index of volatility fell -1.58pts on hopes that investors wouldn’t have to wait too long to find out the election outcome. And over in Europe it was a similar story, with the STOXX 600 (+2.34%), the DAX (+2.55%) and the CAC 40 (+2.44%) gaining significant ground, as the STOXX Banks climbed +4.24% to bring its gains over the last 3 sessions to +10.26%.

Safe havens struggled amidst this strength for risk assets, and the US dollar index was down -0.61% yesterday in its worst day since July while yields on 10yr US Treasuries were up +5.5bps to 0.900%, their highest level since early June. There was also a notable steepening of the Treasury yield curve, with the 2s10s curve steepening a further +4.1bps to its steepest level since February 2018. Meanwhile in Europe, there was a widening of spreads between core and periphery, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.0bps) and gilts (+5.3bps) both rising, as those Italian BTPs (-1.4bps) and Spanish debt (-1.2bps) fell back.

Given the election results, the coronavirus was somewhat lower down the agenda yesterday, though cases continued to rise in Europe in particular, with Italy reporting another 28,244 cases and its highest number of deaths (353) since early May. Even Sweden, which has been associated with a more relaxed attitude in terms of restrictions, announced that there’d now be an 8-person limit on groups at restaurants. Dutch Prime Minister Rutte has extended the country’s partial lockdown until mid-December with some new restrictions as well. The Italian government is also reportedly drawing up plans for new restrictions, with restricted movement from and to high risk areas.

Finally, there wasn’t a great deal of data yesterday, though US factory orders for September increased by +1.1% month-on-month (vs. +1.0% expected).

To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the October services and composite PMIs from around the world. Otherwise, there’s also the US trade balance for September and the ADP’s employment report for that month. Meanwhile ECB speakers include Panetta, Schnabel and Hernandez de Cos.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.37 PTS OR .19%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 53.59 PTS OR .24%    /The Nikkei closed UP 399.75 POINTS OR 1.72%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.04%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil UP TO 38.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 40.75 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6546. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6527 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/GLOBE

Global COVID-19 Cases Decline As German Spread Slows; UK Braces For More Restrictions: Live Updates

 
 

Summary:

  • Global daily cases decline
  • Germany’s “R” rate declines back below “1”
  • BoJo set to push through more restrictions
  • Hungary minister sickened
  • Bulgaria tops 4k COVID cases
  • South Korea confirms another 118 cases
  • Indonesia reports 3,356

* * *

Once again, the number of new cases reported globally declined in the 24 hours to Tuesday, according to Johns Hopkins and Bloomberg. But while the rate of spread in Germany dropped back below 1 on Wednesday morning, most of its European neighbors, including the UK, Italy, Sweden, Hungary and the Netherlands have all moved to impose new restrictions this week.

 

On Wednesday, Bloomberg drew attention to hospitalizations in the US, where Florida is in the lead with 16% of beds filled by COVID-19 patients.

Source: Bloomberg

The biggest story on Wednesday morning was the drop in Germany’s “R” rate, which fell below 1 for the first time since Oct. 30 as the country recorded 7,533 new cases in the 24 hours to Wednesday morning, a decline from more than 17k a day earlier.

In the UK, Boris Johnson is set to push fresh coronavirus lockdown rules through Parliament on Wednesday as he faces down rebels in his own party. The new rules will take effect at midnight, enforcing the closing of pubs, gyms and non-essential shops in England, and restricting social contact between households. The prime minister announced the month-long measures on Saturday after data showed the pandemic exceeding the worst-case projections of his scientific advisers.

Yesterday, the FDA warned about inaccuracies tied to rapid antigen tests like the Abbott Labs test approved for emergency use, saying that the test has been shown to produce ‘incorrect’ positive results.

 

Here’s more news from overnight and Wednesday morning:

India reported 46,253 new cases, in line with a slowdown in daily infections over the past three weeks. The country reached a peak of more than 97,000 daily cases in mid-September, putting it on track to overtake the U.S., but with the slower rate of new Indian cases and resurgent numbers in America, that now looks unlikely for some time. Still, India has just kicked off its festival season — culminating in Diwali on Nov. 14 — and large-scale celebratory events planned across the country could re-ignite the spread of infection (Source: Bloomberg).

New cases in Bulgaria jumped to a record 4,041 with the number of daily deaths rising to 63. The Balkan country’s Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, who is recovering at home from the virus himself, has said that the government isn’t planning a nationwide lockdown for now but vowed to raise the wages of medical workers (Source: Bloomberg).

Australia showed more signs of recovery, with household spending surging by a record 6.5% last quarter, led by cafes and clothing and footwear stores as Covid-19 restrictions in much of the country were unwound. The growth was partly restrained by a 4.2% decline in Victoria state, which only released its capital Melbourne from lockdown last week (Source: Bloomberg).

Hungary’s foreign minister has tested positive for COVID-19 after arriving in Thailand, according to AP. Peter Szijjarto and his delegation had just come from Cambodia, where he met with Prime Minister Hun Sen and other officials on Tuesday. The minister and the Cambodian leader were pictured together maskless. Cambodian officials say the delegation members all tested negative prior to their departure (Source: Nikkei).

South Korea confirms 118 new coronavirus cases, up from 75 a day ago. The country’s total infections have reached 26,925, with 474 deaths (Source: Nikkei).

END

Something that we have been pounding the table on:  schools are not driving infection rates..

(zerohedge

Another COVID-19 ‘Myth’ Busted: Schools Aren’t Driving Infection Rates, Study Finds

 

The return to schools in the US was memorably fraught with doomsayers like Dr. Fauci who at times allied with unions (particularly in America’s biggest districts like in LA, Chicago and New York) to force mayors to agree to lengthy delays of in-person education unless they acquiesced to measures on staffing and resources intended to ensure “teacher safety”.

Months later, the controversy that surrounded President Trump’s attempt to force schools around the country to reopen, something that the media raised a major stink about (accusing the president of endangering the nation’s children for the sake of something as trivial as “the economy”) has all but faded.

A surfeit of testing in the US and across Europe that was carefully monitored and studied by researchers has been carried out. And as Bloomberg reports, positivity rates in places like NYC were “extremely low” – less than 0.2%.

Though we never saw the surge in cases that some feared reopening schools might trigger, infection rates in schools have more or less tracked the rates from their surrounding community.

“You can’t really pull the school out from the community,” said Walter Gilliam, an education policy researcher at the Yale School of Medicine. “The biggest part of this, really, is how do you keep transmission rates in a county to a level that the schools even have a chance? If the transmission rates are too high, there’s just almost nothing they could do to keep it from getting into schools.”

So far, the data show that children are not major spreaders of the virus a) among themselves b) among each other and c) among their parents.

If rates of spread in the community are high, then rates in the schools will be high. This is the reasoning that undergirds decisions in France, Germany etc. that revived most of the restrictions from the springtime lockdowns, with the exception of the schools.

These trends hold true around the world, not just in the US. Research by a third-party nonprofit called Insights for Education examined data from 191 countries and found that the trend was virtually the same everywhere, with rates of infection in K-12 school systems mirroring rates in the surrounding community.

Other early evidence similarly suggested that schools don’t inherently become virus hot spots. Insights for Education, an independent foundation that advises education departments and ministries, examined data from 191 countries between Feb. 10 and Sept. 29 and found “no consistent pattern between school status and infection levels.”

In Spain, a second wave of the virus began before schools reopened. One analysis there found that in one region cases dropped three weeks after schools reopened, in one region cases stayed flat and in others case numbers continued rising at the same rate. A new project that is collecting data on reopenings in the U.S., the COVID-19 School Response Dashboard, examined data from more than 5,000 schools across all 50 U.S. states and found that at a late-September peak, about 3% of schools reported outbreaks of five or more infections.

But, seeing as this is a Bloomberg report, the reporters note that just because ‘the experts’ were wrong about COVID-19 and its risk to the public education system doesn’t mean they were wrong about…well…everything else, too.

In the US, school openings have been complicated and confused by a White House that has downplayed the risks of in-person instruction and federal agencies that have never issued clear guidelines for safe practices. That’s left policy-making to state and local governments that are rushing to respond to the changing virus and what’s learned about it.

Whether it’s safe to open schools, said Rainu Kaushal, a clinical researcher at Cornell University’s medical school, Weill Cornell Medicine, in New York City, depends largely on two factors: How serious the spread of the virus is in the community and how seriously the community is taking precautions against the virus.

She said schools also need to be nimble.

“This virus situation evolves so rapidly that one can only make the best decision for the next few weeks,” she said. “And then you really have to take stock again.”

To be sure, while K-12 schools haven’t proved nearly as dangerous as advertised, college students remain a risk, with reports on college campuses showing large universities around the country becoming veritable petri dishes of disease. Epidemiologists will be watching the numbers as the winter progresses to see whether the virus continues to intensify heading into the new year, or whether rates finally begin to subside.

 

7. OIL ISSUES

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1736 DOWN .0025 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN

USA/JAPAN YEN 104.23 DOWN 0.302 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3048   DOWN   0.0077  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.3146 UP .0043 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 25 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1736 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE  UP 6.37 PTS OR .19%

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 53.59 PTS OR .24% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0,04%// EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 53.59 PTS OR  .24% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.37 PTS OR .19% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.04% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 399.75  POINTS OR 1.72%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1907.10

silver:$24.07-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 0.816% !!! DOWN 8 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 1.584 DOWN 10  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 93.37 DOWN 2 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.06% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.04.%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.09%//DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.70 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 61 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.64% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.34% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1714  DOWN     .0048 or 48 basis points

USA/Japan: 104.47 DOWN .079 OR YEN UP 8  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2998 DOWN .0120 POUND DOWN 120  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 15 basis points to 1.3118

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,CNY: closed UP 6.6535    ON SHORE  (UP)..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.6550  (YUAN up)..

TURKISH LIRA:  8.42  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.04%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 13 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 0.767 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 1.538 DOWN 15 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.48 down 7  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 96,49  1.67%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 235.24 POINTS OR 1.95%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 117.24 POINTS 2.44%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 29.30 POINTS or 0.43%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 377.04 POINTS OR 1.96%

WTI Oil price; 38.69 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 41.01 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    78.03  THE CROSS LOWER BY 1.12//ROUBLE RISES BY 112 BASIS POINTS

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.64 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price f0r Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  38.96//

BRENT :  41.07

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 0.776..DOWN 12 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 1.546 DOWN 14 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1718 ( DOWN 43   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:104.53 DOWN .012 (YEN UP 1 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.47 DOWN 8 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.2979 DOWN 141  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.4272

the Russian rouble 77,56   UP 1.97 Roubles against the uSA dollar. UP 197 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.3146 UP 43 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.62%

The Dow closed UP 367.63 POINTS OR 1.34%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 430.21 POINTS OR 3.85%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  29.69 CLOSED down 5.86

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.224%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Stocks & Bonds Surge To Record Post-Election Gain

 

While uncertainty reigns over who will reside in The White House for the next four years, one thing was definitively decided last night, the ‘blue-wave’ crashed and burned…

Source:Bloomberg

Which for many “pollsters” and “experts” was inconceivable a week ago…

And in response, assuming a Biden win and deflationary impulse, stocks and bonds were panic-bid (Nasdaq up a stunning 5% and TSY yields down a shocking 10-15bps)…

Source:Bloomberg

Which is the biggest post-election-day rally for the S&P in history…

Nasdaq was today’s biggest winner however as growth mega-tech was aggressively, and value-heavy Small Caps lagged notably…

The Dow managed to bounce off its 200DMA all the way back above its 50DMA, but this afternoon’s weakness was it battle to keep that…

Bank stocks were battered (especially regional banks) as rates collapsed…

Source:Bloomberg

Growth stocks soared relative to value today…

Source:Bloomberg

In fact it was the worst day for value relative to growth since 2001…

Source:Bloomberg

VIX crashed from over 41 to below 30…

 

Bonds were also well bid today with yields collapsing at the long-end…

Source:Bloomberg

30Y yields fell over 25bps from their overnight highs!!

Source:Bloomberg

That crash in yields pushed them down to critical technical level at 50/200DMA…

Source:Bloomberg

This was the best day for a combined bond/stock book since early April…

Source:Bloomberg

The Dollar’s moves were extreme to say the least…

Source:Bloomberg

The offshore yuan was even more extreme, crashing when Trump’s odds picked up and then exploding higher as Biden’s odds recovered…

Source:Bloomberg

Bitcoin was also bid, topping $14,200 intraday, its highest since Jan 2018…

Source:Bloomberg

Gold futures scrambled back above $1900 after a volatile 12 hours…

 

WTI managed to surge back up to $39…

 

Finally, systemic risk is starting to be lifted as implied correlation drops…

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 
 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

 
 

ii)Market data/USA

ISM services very weak. This is 70% of GDP

(zerohedge)

ISM Services Slumps To Weakest Since May, Job Growth Slows

 

Despite yesterday’s positive survey data on manufacturing, analysts expected a mere stabilization in the Services surveys from ISM and Markit, but the message was mixed…

  • Markit Services PMI BEAT – 56.9 vs 56.0 prior vs 54.6 prior
  • ISM Services MISS – 56.6 vs 57.5 exp vs 57.8 prior

And all that despite ‘hard’ data weakening in recent months..,

According to Markit, optimism about business levels in one year’s time improved to the strongest since April 2018 principally amid hopes of an end to the COVID-19 crisis and additional stimulus during the pandemic

ISM Services was the only outlier against optimism in the survey data…

And despite the drop, ISM respondents were almost uniformly optimistic…

And who says there’s no inflation…

Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“Growth of business activity accelerated markedly in October, indicating that the underlying health of the US economy continued to recover at the start of the fourth quarter. While fourth quarter GDP will invariably fail to match the strong rebound seen in the third quarter, the economy looks to be continuing to grow at an above-trend rate.

“Encouragingly, future business optimism showed a record surge, pulling prospects for the year ahead up to the highest for more than two years. Hopes of a brighter outlook were pinned on a vaccine ending the COVID-19 pandemic over the coming year and additional stimulus supporting the economy in the meantime.”

end

end

U.S. trade deficit drops 4.7% in September on surge in soybean exports

Nov. 4, 2020 at 8:47 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Trade gap has soared amid coronavirus pandemic

The numbers: The trade deficit fell 4.7% in September as exports of farm crops such as soy beans increased, but trade is likely to remain a sore spot for the U.S. economy as long as the coronavirus pandemic persists.

The trade gap slid to $63.9 billion from $67 billion in August, the U.S. Census Bureau said Wednesday, matching the forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch.

The trade gap exploded during the summer to a near record high, reflecting a rapid recovery in U.S. imports of autos, consumer electronics and other goods. Yet exports have lagged amid a slump in global demand.

What happened: U.S. exports advanced 2.6% in September to $176.4 billion. Soybean shipments to China accounted for much of the increase. American companies also exported more networking equipment and engines.

Imports rose a smaller 0.5% to $240.2 billion. The U.S. imported more autos, but imports of cell phones and other consumer goods fell sharply.

The trade gap is unlikely to fall much further in the next few months, with U.S. exports continuing to lag and renewed economic restrictions in Europe partly shutting off a key market.

Imports are also likely to rise as retailers restock for the holiday shopping season and a rebounding U.S. economy regains its appetite for foreign goods.

Big trade deficits subtract from gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the U.S. economy.

Big picture: Imports have returned to precrisis levels, but exports are still down sharply and it will take awhile until they fully recover.

The potential election of Democrat Joe Biden as president could lead to reduce trade tensions with China in 2021. The ongoing trade dispute had hurt farmers and manufacturers and was a drag on the economy even before the coronavirus crisis severely disrupted global trading patterns.

 

Michael Every’s thoughts on the USA election

(Michael Every..)

‘Purple Rain’ – Polls Were “Hilariously, Tragically Wrong”

 
 

Authored by Michael Every via Rabobank,

Writing a Daily after an election is usually quite clear cut: with sleepy eyes, you describe who won and who lost. In this case, at time of writing, it isn’t so clear. So what can we say?

First, as had been alluded to many times, the polls were hilariously, tragically wrong. As someone on Twitter quipped: “He’s called Nate Silver because his calls always come in second.”

This was not a Biden +7,8,9 or 10 election. Instead it is a nail-biter. Second, we have not seen a Blue Wave – but Democratic turnout was up impressively in some locations and among some demographics. Third, we have not seen a Red Wave – but Republican turnout has been even more impressive, especially in rural areas, and among Hispanic and black voters, at least relative to 2016.

 

So if we don’t have a Blue Wave or a Red Wave, what do we have? Purple rain. At time of writing Fox News had, controversially, given 800K votes remained on the table, called Arizona for Biden, “flipping” that key state from 2016 and seeing betting odds follow. However, Trump had taken Florida and Ohio and Texas, and sat very well-placed in North Carolina, with Georgia somewhat less certain but still requiring a huge Democratic swing among remaining pockets to flip too.

Both presidential candidates therefore now look to the Rustbelt (and Nevada) for victory – and there Trump has so far outperformed even his 2016 vote totals in rural areas, while inner-city turnout has been mixed, and questions over early voting totals, suggesting there is a clear path to 270 electoral college votes for the incumbent, should that trend continue, as well as for Biden if it is not. (And notably for the pollsters, Wisconsin had a Trump lead with only 25% left to count, when the last major poll had had Biden +17; by contrast, Minnesota looks set to go for Biden). There is also one scenario where we could see an Electoral College draw 269-269.

Yet at this point it appears that several Rustbelt states have decided to stop counting the vote, for various reasons, or that they will not declare a winner imminently. This opens the door to the dreaded uncertainty and delay, to appearances in court, as well as to conspiracy theories about murky electoral shenanigans, which the web is already now full of.

Biden has already spoken, claiming he is confident, sees a way to win, and to “keep the faith”; Trump has tweeted: “We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the election.”

It’s still too early to draw any clear conclusions other than that the real loser of this election has been most of the polling profession. However, we can see that this is a deeply-divided and almost evenly-divided country, just now divided in different ways.

 

For example, it appears we have indeed seen a major class realignment within the US. Starr County, Texas is 95% Hispanic with a median income of just USD17,000: it went Clinton +60 in 2016, but only Biden +5(!) in 2020; conversely, many suburban ‘red’ districts, and perhaps states, have moved ‘blue’. As noted, red plus blue is purple; and as we also saw a record turnout from both sides, underlining renewed interest in the electoral process, lots and lots of purple.

Meanwhile, it seems the Republicans will likely retain the Senate and the Democrats the House.

The market reaction so far has been clearer. Long US bond yields tumbled (30-year as much as-18bp), reversing the reflationary Blue Wave pre-election move; the USD rallied strongly, but this has since been partially reversed; and, like a young puppy, equities seem to be happy whatever is going on just as long as they are involved. So bonds up, stocks up, and the USD net up: and the whole world looking at the US – seems both sides have combined to make America great again.

Overall, however, it’s looking like a nail-biting day ahead.

Meanwhile, even though this is not an equity-focused Daily, one must mention the dramatic suspension yesterday of what was supposed to be the looming USD35bn Ant Financial IPO in Shanghai and Hong Kong. It seems that politics is something markets need to pay attention to all over, not just in the US.

 
 
 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

USA elections: moratorium

Blue Wave Crashes: Democrats’ Hopes For Senate Majority Fizzle; House Margin Eroded

 

What ‘Blue Wave’?

While 8 states (per the NYT) are still waiting on final vote counts in the presidential race, it’s already clear that Tuesday was not the blowout Democratic victory that Nate Silver and a legion of other idiot pundits had expected.

Joni Ernst

 

Despite the legion of celebrities and models urging their followers to ‘get out and vote’ by posting selfies with their ‘I voted’ stickers and/or (in one notorious campaign) posing nude for risque adverts (oh to have been a fly on the wall during that pitch meeting), all the ‘vote now’ merch in the world couldn’t deliver the Senate Majority that Wall Street had pinned its hopes of a sweeping stimulus deal upon.

To be sure, the Dems managed to flip a couple of high-profile seats; but the majority of “threatened” Republican Senators (and remember, there were a lot of them) managed to fend off deep-pocketed Democratic rivals.

Here’s a roundup of where things stand as of Wednesday morning in New York (courtesy of the NYT & Bloomberg):

  • Democratic Senate candidates were running slightly behind Biden in several states, making it difficult for the party to retake Senate control.
  • Republicans flipped one seat: Tommy Tuberville beat the Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama. Gary Peters, the Democratic incumbent in Michigan, is locked in a close race with his Republican challenger, John James; it will depend on the outstanding votes.
  • Democrats flipped two seats: John Hickenlooper defeated Gardner in Colorado, and Mark Kelly defeated McSally in Arizona.
  • In Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican, won re-election. Republicans also won races in Montana, South Carolina — where Lindsey Graham held on to his seat — and Texas.
  • John Cornyn defeated Air Force combat veteran MJ Hegar. Republican Roger Marshall won the open Kansas Senate seat, defeating a well-funded Barbara Bollier in a race Democrats had hopes of winning if there was a wave election.
  • Georgia Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed by the governor, will face off against Democrat Raphael Warnock, senior pastor of the Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, in the runoff. In the other Georgia contest, Republican incumbent David Perdue was leading Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff, who narrowly lost an Atlanta-area House special election in 2017.
  • Democratic Senator Mark Warner was easily re-elected to a third term in Virginia and Republican Shelley Moore Capito won a second term in West Virginia, according to Associated Press projections. Incumbent Democrats Edward Markey in Massachusetts, Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, Jack Reed in Rhode Island, Chris Coons in Delaware and Dick Durbin in Illinois also won re-election.
  • Along With McConnell and Capito, Republican James Inhofe won re-election in Oklahoma. In Tennessee, Republican Bill Hagerty won the seat being vacated by Republican Senator Lamar Alexander, who is retiring. South Dakota Republican Mike Rounds and Nebraska Republican Ben Sasse also were re-elected. In Wyoming, Republican Cynthia Lummis won election to the seat now held by Mike Enzi, who is retiring.
  • Several other races remain too close to call, including in Maine, where Senator Susan Collins leads the Democratic nominee, Sara Gideon. In a special Senate election in Georgia, the incumbent Kelly Loeffler is headed to a January runoff against the Democrat Raphael Warnock.

As we await the final results, President Trump has a much stronger chance of winning a second term than any of the ‘professionals’ anticipated, and although Twitter and Facebook affixed labels to some of his spicier tweets last night (including one accusing Democrats of trying to “steal” the election), the chaos that many had feared has given way to an eerie silence.

At this point, “virtually everything has to go right” for the Dems to take the Senate, said one veteran analyst with the Cook Political Report tweeted.

 

The two big tossup Senate races that have yet to be called involve Susan Collins (of Maine) and Thom Tillis (of North Carolina), both of whom were holding on to leads in vote counts. Both would need to lose to deliver the four seats that Dems would need to take an outright majority (rather than a 50-50 tie with the VP casting the deciding vote).

When President Trump said during rallies in recent weeks that he expected the GOP to take back the House, professional analysts sniggered. However, they failed to anticipate even the possibility that the GOP could expand its caucus. The Senate races “closely mirrored” the race at the top of the ticket, with few voters splitting ballots, as President Trump helped carry some embattled senators, including Lindsey Graham, over the line.

But as bad as the situation is for the Senate, Democrats’ performance in various tossup House races was even more abysmal. Though the Dems are expected to hold on to their majority, the GOP is expected to take more than 200 seats, leaving them with an emboldened minority. Pollsters had expected Dems to pick up more than a dozen seats; it’s just the latest reminder of how far off the public opinion polls were in the runup to the election.

Politico’s Jake Sherman put it best in a string of tweets where he labeled Tuesday “an abject disaster” for Democrats.

 
 

iv) Swamp commentaries)

Crazy Jude Emmet Sullivan…..the same judge that has interfered in the Michael Flynn case is shocked that the Postmaster General defied his orders by not looking for undelivered ballots.  It is interesting that the judge thought nothing of 189,000 ballots that appeared in Wisconsin, a big dump and only one candidate Biden. Also 200,000 plus appeared in Michigan (see below) with 100% going to Biden…statistically impossible!

two commentaries

‘Deep State Judge’ “Shocked” At USPS Election Failures, May Order Postmaster General To Testify

 

US District Judge Emmet Sullivan may haul Postmaster General Louis DeJoy into court to testify over why the USPS failed to follow court orders to conduct a ‘mandatory sweep’ of mail-processing facilities to look for undelivered ballots by 3 p.m. on election day.

“At some point, the postmaster is either going to have to be deposed or appear before me and testify under oath,” said Sullivan – who made headlines earlier this year after fighting the DOJ’s request to drop the case against former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn – leading some to speculate that he’s a ‘deep state’ judge.

The court has been very clear that it expects full compliance” with his orders, Sullivan added, blasting the US Postal Service’s legal team for failing to promptly notify him after the agency realized it couldn’t meet the deadline he established for the agency in more than a dozen troubled regions, “many in Democratic-leaning urban areas or swing states,” according to Bloomberg.

The court would have been very sensitive to any complaints that it was impossible to comply with the order,” said Sullivan, adding “It just leaves a bad taste in everyone’s mouth for the clock to run out, game over. There was not compliance with a very important court order.”

Sullivan said he was “shocked” that his order wasn’t followed. (Unsurprisingly, he wasn’t ‘shocked’ when Flynn’s former legal counsel – from Eric Holder’s law firm – didn’t fully comply with his order to turn over potentially exculpatory evidence to Flynn’s new legal team).

On-time delivery has taken on a new urgency amid a surge in the use of mail-in ballots during the pandemic and Republican efforts to block the counting of ballots that arrive after Election Day. Lawyers for the plaintiffs in the case, including the NAACP, said it was imperative for the USPS to focus on continuing to deliver ballots in states that have extended deadlines for accepting votes postmarked by Nov. 3. Sullivan asked to hear testimony later Wednesday from USPS executive manager Kevin Bray, the lead for processing 2020 election mail. -Bloomberg

Sullivan’s order to sweep included facilities in Democratic strongholds such as Philadelphia, Atlanta, Detroit and Houston, as well as battleground states such as Florida and Arizona. Facilities which were targeted were suffering from ‘substandard performance’ for delivery of election mail, according to the report.

On Wednesday, the agency said it had searched for ballots in over 200 facilities.

end

and the 2nd

Voter Fraud in Michigan – Massive Dump of Over 200,000 Ballots for Biden All the Sudden Appear Overnight …Update: Officials Call It a “Typo”

By Jim Hoft
Published November 4, 2020 at 8:49am 
1216 Comments

Shareon Facebook(11k)TweetShareEmail

We saw this in Wisconsin, too.

Last night President Trump was leading significantly in several swing states including Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

 

Milwaukee also had some shady actions and delayed reporting:

Now look at Michigan.
President Trump had a significant lead in Michigan late last night.

 

Then all of the sudden Joe Biden jumped up 200,000 votes and has the lead over President Trump.
200,000 VOTES!

Here is the evidence–

So 200k people voted for Biden and ZERO for Trump? pic.twitter.com/jBfuYe5Dfm

— Trollasaurus (@TrollasaurusRx) November 4, 2020

END

“Those Who Vote Decide Nothing. Those Who Count The Vote Decide Everything…”

 

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

Stalin – the hero of the left and the lying dog-faced pony soldiers – is correct.

“It’s not the people who vote that count, it’s the people who count the votes.”

Trump was winning this election last night. Suddenly, they decided to stop counting and stop reporting in all the Democrat governor controlled swing states.

Now the real “counting” has begun. Where is that landslide Biden victory, the douchebags in the left wing MSM were so sure about? Nate Silver and the rest of the left wing media pollsters have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt they are nothing more that a propaganda arm of the left.

The Republicans have picked up seats in the House and will retain control of the Senate. Soros, Bloomberg, Zuckerberg, Dorsey, and all the other left wing billionaires poured hundreds of billions into this election and failed miserably.

The counting is now being done in Democrat controlled states and enforced by Soros Attorney Generals.

What do you think the chances are of Trump getting a fair count in these states?

Trump Assembling ‘All-Star’ Legal Team To Challenge Elections In Close States: Report

 

With tempers flaring over mysterious overnight ‘ballot dumps’ and questionable pro-Biden rulings leading up to Tuesday’s election, President Trump’s campaign on Wednesday began assembling an all-star legal team to mount challenges in key states, beginning with a Court of Claims lawsuit in Michigan, according to Just the News‘ John Solomon.

 

 

Trump attorney Jay Sekulow

The team will include Trump attorneys Jay Sekulow and Rudy Giuliani, along with former Florida AG Pam Bondi. Michael Flynn attorney Sidney Powell may also be called upon, according to officials.

“As votes in Michigan continue to be counted, the presidential race in the state remains extremely tight as we always knew it would be. President Trump’s campaign has not been provided with meaningful access to numerous counting locations to observe the opening of ballots and the counting process, as guaranteed by Michigan law,” said Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien, after the legal team filed an action in the Court of Claims seeking to halt vote counting until irregularities are addressed.

“We have filed suit today in the Michigan Court of Claims to halt counting until meaningful access has been granted. We also demand to review those ballots which were opened and counted while we did not have meaningful access. President Trump is committed to ensuring that all legal votes are counted in Michigan and everywhere else.”

Giuliani, meanwhile, is heading to Pennsylvania to get eyes on the counting situation.

 
END

It’s Time For A New Generation Of Leaders”: Moderate Democrats Weigh Ousting Pelosi Over Dismal Election Showing

 

Even though Biden appears to be edging Trump out in the presidential race, assuming a volley of recounts and Supreme Court lawsuits do not materially change the outcome in battleground states, it is undisputable that the election did not go as Democrats had desired: between Trump’s pick up of 2 million votes in the popular vote, the loss of Hispanic votes in Florida and Texas, and the elephant in the room – the inability to retake the Senate, condemning a possible Biden administration to at least two years of Congressional gridlock eliminating the chance of a tax overhaul or a Green New Deal – there is no disputing that the Democrats failed to achieve most of their goals.

And now the blame game begins, with The Hill reporting that stung by their party’s disappointing showing at the polls Tuesday, “two moderate House Democrats say they and other centrists are privately discussing a plan that was unthinkable just 24 hours earlier: throwing their support behind a challenger to Speaker Nancy Pelosi.”

The two Democrats told The Hill on Wednesday that they were reaching out to their colleagues about backing one of Pelosi’s top lieutenants, House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), for Speaker.

“He’s the only one prepared and positioned” to be Speaker, one of the Democratic lawmakers told the Hill. “He bridges moderates and progressives better than anyone. And most importantly, he’s not Nancy Pelosi.”

According to the report, the grumbling “reflects a remarkable shift in internal Democratic thinking in the immediate wake of Tuesday’s elections” – the reason: while Pelosi and Democratic leaders had promised to build on their majority — some estimates were in the double digits — but the early returns revealed a different reality: Not only did Democrats fail to protect a number of their most vulnerable members, they had not picked off a single Republican incumbent heading into Wednesday afternoon.  Instead, lawmakers were left “licking their wounds and questioning the messaging and strategy decisions heading into Tuesday’s polls.”

While Democrats will keep control of the House, and the results of many races remain unknown while votes are still counted, the party saw the defeat of at least seven of their front-line members — the sitting lawmakers in the toughest districts. And of the 38 “red-to-blue” districts they were eyeing as potential gains, Republicans have already won 21 and are leading in another 14.

This is how Bloomberg summarized the dismal Democratic showing:

Across the board, Democrats failed to meet the Election Day expectations raised by polls and independent analysts. The party took Senate seats from Republicans in Colorado and Arizona, but unless they win outstanding races in Maine and Georgia, they won’t have the majority in that chamber.

At least seven House Democratic incumbents were defeated, including Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson, who has represented his Minnesota district since 1991. Other Democratic losses came in Florida, New Mexico, Oklahoma and South Carolina. More are still vulnerable, including some who had pressed Pelosi to compromise on a stimulus bill, such as Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger and New York’s Max Rose.

One cited reason cited for the unexpected drop in Democratic support, was Pelosi’s unwillingness to negotiation with the GOP over a new fiscal stimulus, and failing to follow the advice of former Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein who on Oct 14 urged the speaker to accept the Republican stimulus offer, then comfortably win in the House and Senate races, and pass her own stimulus.

She refused to listen, and now she has bigger problems.

An easy scapegoat for the Democratic failure, Pelosi has emerged an early target for moderates representing suburban districts worried that their leadership’s strategy hurt such members ahead of the elections. And one of the two lawmakers who spoke to The Hill said a number of Democrats representing suburban and exurban districts had been talking about the need for a change.

“It’s time for Democrats to elevate a new generation of leadership in both the House and the Senate,” the lawmaker said. “Americans are clearly afraid of ‘socialism,’ want safe streets and neighborhoods and to vote for people who they believe will help put more money in their pockets. While Democratic policies can adequately address those issues, our messaging mechanism clearly cannot.”

The plan is still in its early stages, with the pair of Democrats saying they were in the process of reaching out to all of the “suburban survivors” of Tuesday night’s elections and had already spoken to two dozen members from various factions of the caucus, including the Congressional Black Caucus, Progressive Caucus, New Democrat Coalition and bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus.

Any attempt to oust the House speaker would be news to Pelosi, who told reporters before the elections that she would run for Speaker again if the Democrats kept control of the House. Asked about a potential challenge to Pelosi, her chief spokesman, Drew Hammill, wrote in an email to The Hill: “Today is not about the race for Speaker. Today is about the race for the White House and ensuring that our Members and candidates in uncalled races have the support they need. That is our focus.”

To be sure, Pelosi, 80, is no stranger to leadership challenges. Although she led the Democrats’ House takeover in the 2018 midterm elections, she still faced tough resistance within her own ranks in retaking the gavel after eight years in the minority. Fifteen Democrats bucked Pelosi and voted against her on the House floor after Democrats won back the House two years ago. But she still secured 220 votes that year — two more than what she needed to win the Speaker’s gavel.

* * *

A potential uprising against Pelosi may be further kindled by the Democrats’ loss of leverage in ongoing stimulus negotiations: according to Bloomberg, Congressional Democrats face a loss of leverage in negotiations over a new U.S. stimulus package after a disappointing showing on Election Day that left Senator Mitch McConnell potentially with a renewed mandate as majority leader.

The results so far – with Democrats facing a trimmed majority in the House and virtually zero odds for re-taking the Senate – point to a smaller Covid-19 relief bill than the roughly $2 trillion that had been discussed by the Trump administration and Democratic leaders before the Nov. 3 election.

“Hopefully the partisan passions that prevented us from doing a rescue package have subsided,” McConnell, a Kentucky Republican who had advocated a much smaller package, said on Wednesday. “That’s job one when we get back.”

While stocks hit session highs after McConnell’s comments, they have drifted lower since amid speculation a potential rebellion within Democratic ranks could lead to far small fiscal aid.

While Democrats have said they will continue to push for a multi-trillion dollar stimulus bill in the post-election lame-duck session, no matter who wins the White House, and Pelosi said late last month she wants to complete a deal with President Donald Trump’s administration even if Joe Biden wins in order to give him a “clean slate” before Inauguration Day in January, that task has become far more difficult given the rough election night for Pelosi and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer.

The GOP also will face pressure from conservative activists – who were oddly silent for the past 4 years – not to deliver Biden a major legislative victory – especially one that would add to an already record budget deficit.

“My advice toward Senate Republicans is to take the approach to a Biden presidency that they did toward Clinton and Obama, which was don’t give them any votes for truly bad pieces of legislation,” said anti-tax activist Grover Norquist. “Why would you put your fingerprints on something that is just a massive bailout for corrupt mayors and incompetent governors?”

Adding to the Democrats’ senatorial wose, with a narrower majority in the new Congress, it may be difficult for Pelosi to find the consensus to pass a relief bill. Finally, if Pelosi continues to insist on a package greater than the $1.9 trillion offered by the White House, she will face pressure to compromise quickly from the remaining moderate Democrats who are vital to the party’s House majority. And if she refuses, the fledgling rebellion against Pelosi will become a full-blown revolt.

END

 
v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

A rising market has preceded a victory for the sitting party 86% of the time since 1928 https://bloom.bg/35XSttH

Democrats held a 114k early vote advantage in Florida before the polls opened.  By the end of the first two hours of Florida voting, Republicans turned the 114k deficit to a 35k vote surplus!  By 11:30 ET, the GOP had a 75k advantage.  When the afternoon arrived the GOP vote advantage surpassed Trump’s 113k winning margin in 2016.

In the early morning, there was reportedly a 2-hour wait to vote in Virginia Beach, VA.  It suggested that even ‘blue’ Virginia was in play.  By the late morning (ET) on Monday, Biden’s campaign manager was reassuring the media and Dems that Biden still had a path to victory if he lost Pennsylvania and Florida!!!

By 14:30 ET (12:30 AZ time), Republican votes in Arizona exceed Democrat votes by 42k

 

@PhillyGOP: Polls have been open for 2 hours in PA. Here’s what we’ve seen:

– Several reports of locations closed.

– 300+ people stuck in line.

– Ballot harvesting.

– Certified watchers being denied access…

Voting machines down in Westmoreland and Philadelphia Counties. Opposite sides of the state, both pro-Trump strongholds….

 

@PhillyGOP: We’ve gotten several reports of people submitting multiple mail-in ballots across the state.

Wondering what that looks like? Check out this video, taken yesterday.

https://twitter.com/PhillyGOP/status/1323655248951582720

 

Team DJT’s @mikeroman: ILLEGAL campaigning INSIDE of a polling location in Philly. Man in blue is handing out DEM literature to voters IN LINE TO VOTE. This is why DEMS are keeping TRUMP WATCHERS OUT.  They are STEALING it! This needs to STOP!

https://twitter.com/mikeroman/status/1323629214839513090

 

Nevada Elections @NVElect: Clark County voters…several polling locations in the county are experiencing technical problems and have not yet opened. If you are waiting in line, please be patient. The sites will open soon

 

All Voting Machines go down in 1 Georgia County [Trump won by 24.3% in 2016]

https://dailycaller.com/2020/11/03/voting-machines-down-spalding-county-georgia-donald-trump-2016/

 

You know it’s going to be a landslide when the Amish start to rally and create their own Trump Train

https://twitter.com/45F0RLIFE/status/1323462879744528384

 

At the close, the GOP had a 173k vote advantage in Florida.  Trump won in 2016 by 113k.

It’s possible that the late tumble was due to reports that anti-Trump forces were organizing nation-wide protest for today and beyond.

 

@paulsperry_ (15:10 ET): Obama’s OFA partner Indivisible has organized more than 500 protests across the country for Nov. 4 in the event Trump wins tonight

 

Just the News (16:25 ET): Leaked Zoom-call recordings and documents appear to show groups have been holding training sessions to organize protests on election night and in the ensuing days, with those in the nation’s capital expected to be large with the potential for violence…

https://justthenews.com/government/security/leaked-zoom-calls-show-extensive-preparation-organized-protests-and-unrest-dc

 

Biden Says Will Wait until Tomorrow to Speak if Needed – Bloomberg 16:29 ET

 

CNN Exit Poll: Most Important Issue In Your Vote: Economy: 34%, Racial Inequality: 21%, Covid19: 18%, Crime/Safety: 11%, Healthcare: 11%

Fox News incredulously called Virginia for Trump minutes after the polls closed.  However, at 20:50 ET with 70% of the vote in, Trump had a significant lead.  Reports then said the GOP captured 2 House seats in Miami-Dade!  ESZs zoomed to +11.00.  They tumbled to -11.00 when Fox projected the Democrats would retain the House.  Then, MSM outlets recalled their Virginia to Biden call and Betfair made Trump the favorite to win.  Trump went to -170 on betting markets.  ESZs dropped to -20.00.

 

When Trump took the lead in Texas, ESZs jumped to +12.00.  When Trump took a 2.6% lead in Ohio, ESZ exploded to +26.25.  The MSM at 21:00 ET still refused to call Florida for Trump.  Then, ESZs jumped to +50.00 (22:08 ET) when Trump took the lead in Pennsylvania.  When results from Wisconsin showed Trump greatly outperforming his 2016 pace, ESZs hit +68.00.   Nasdaq 100 futures were halted because they rallied 3.9%. The yuan plummeted.  Violence broke out in DC at BLM Plaza.

 

@Jaaavis: The VA Department of Elections said that the vote count is going well but they are stopping at 11 p.m. and reporting the results up to that point. Counting will resume on Wednesday and the results will be announced no earlier than Friday at noon.

 

@TishaLewis: TONIGHT: In northern Virginia, Fairfax County elections workers arrive in droves carrying sealed boxes we’re told are ballots from drop boxes…

https://twitter.com/TishaLewis/status/1323814468867031040

 

@MarinaMedvin: Virginia Department of Elections: “Absentee ballots may be accepted until noon on November 6th. Therefore, results are incomplete. Results will be certified on November 16th.”

 

WCAU: A spokesperson for Philadelphia elections says the city will announce another round of mail-in ballot results between 12 and 1 a.m. As of 10 p.m. on Nov. 3, about 76K mail-in ballots had been processed out of some 437K requested

 

With 97% of the Florida vote is in; Trump has a 386k lead, yet the MSM will not call the race at 22:00 ET.  So, we are sending out the letter because confirming results are probably a few hours away.

 

The session will be a reaction and adjustment to the US National Election.  As you know, we believe that the economy is in for a tough time no matter who is the president or what party controls Congress.  A good chunk of explosive rally of the past two days might have been aggressive short covering.

 

What we don’t know is if the sharp stock market decline in September was due to the concern about the US economy because of the stimulus plan stalemate, European Covid angst or a Biden win.  Similarly, we don’t know what was the factor or factors in the early October rally and the sharp drop during the latter half of October.

 

Pelosi is NOT going to do any favors for Trump and the GOP by fast tracking a stimulus bill through the House.  Trump has already declared that he wants a massive stimulus package after the election.  A new Congress won’t be formed until late January.  So, for now, there is unlikely to be a stimulus bill until February at the earliest.  Soon, equity investors are going to react to a weakening US economy.

 

Ergo, any Trump relief rally could be very short lived.

Democrats poured a reported $86m into Kentucky to defeat Sen. Mitch McConnell.  Mitch won easily.

CBS’s @BoKnowsNews: “I work for Lady Gaga,” Biden tells students in Pittsburgh…

@tomselliott: Biden [pandering yesterday]: “I had a job with a nice country club kind of pool as a lifeguard .. I played ball with a lot of great black athletes but I didn’t know them. I mean, we knew each other. They were friends. But I didn’t know them. And it was a great education. It was like the Green Mile.”    https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1323739903994306565

Palestinian Authority Has Been in Talks with Biden Campaign, “Desperate” for Trump Exit

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/palestinian-authority-has-been-talks-biden-campaign-desperate-trump-exit

The NY Times deleted this tweet last night: The role of declaring the winner of a U.S. presidential election falls to the news media… https://twitter.com/ConceptualJames/status/1323780355434971137/photo/1

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

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