MARCH 17/GOLD CLOSE DOWN $3.65 CLOSING TIME COMEX TO $1728.80//SILVER WAS UP 5 CENTS TO $26.01: HOWEVER IN ACCESS MARKET ON FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT, GOLD CLOSED AT 1744.75 AND SILVER CLOSED AT $26.32//GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX ROSE NORTH OF 28 TONNES//SILVER OZ STANDING ROSE CLOSE TO 55 MILLION OZ//WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWALS IN GOLD AND SILVER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RUN ON THE COMEX BANK CONTINUES//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//VACCINE UPDATE//CHINA WITNESSES A MASSIVE SANDSTORM BLANKETING MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY//DEUTSCHE BANK AND COMMERZBANK MUST PAY 500 MILLION EUROS IN DEPOSIT INSURANCE PAYMENTS DUE TO THE FAILURE OF GREENSILL’S BREMEN BASED BANK//FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT//SKYRM ANALYSIS: WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOUR TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1728.80 DOWN $3.65   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$26.01 UP  $0.05   London spot price ( cash market)

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY KITCO

PLATINIUM  $1205.00 DOWN $3.00

PALLADIUM: 2573.50 UP $75.00. PER OZ

Closing access prices:  London spot//GOLD AND SILVER

i)Gold : $1744.75  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $26.32//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today 0/6

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,730.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/16/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 03/18/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 3
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1
690 C ABN AMRO 3
800 C MAREX SPEC 5
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 6 6
MONTH TO DATE: 8,227

issued:  0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped:  0

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR. CONTRACT:  6 NOTICE(S) FOR 600 OZ  (0.1866 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  8227 NOTICES FOR 822700  OZ  (25.589 tonnes)

SILVER//MAR CONTRACT

202 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,010,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 10,129 for 50,645,000  oz

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $54,380,  DOWN 1326 dollars

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$57,921 UP 2215  DOLLARS .

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING HUGE WITHDRAWALS WHETHER GOLD IS UP OR DOWN.

IT SEEMS TO BE THAT IN GOLD, THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS ITS GOLD LEASE BACK EVEN THOUGH THE GOLD IS IN THE B OF E VAULTS.  THE RISK OF DEFAULT BY THE GLD IS TOO GREAT FOR THEM SO THEY NO DOUBT THEY ARE CANCELLING THEIR LEASES WITH GLD

(THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR SILVER AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES TO SLV)

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:A WITHDRAWAL OF: 0 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD.

GLD: 1,050.32 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

SLV: 592.438  MILLION OZ./

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 163.51 UP $1.16 OR  0.71%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 24.42  UP $0.32 OR 1.33%

Today was FOMC day and Powell did absolutely nothing to his plot for interest rate hikes.  However he did provide more room for counterparties in the REPO game.  For the past week, the volume in Rep-Treasury 10 yr was zero and the rate .01%. Now with more room for counterparty limits, the Fed is comfortable with a little negative interest rates. That should cause gold and silver to skyrocket.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2163 CONTRACTS FROM 156,929 UP TO 159,092, AND CLOSER TO  A NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.25 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON TUESDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO A HUMONGOUS BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//HUGE REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND A POWERFUL INCREASE STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR MAR. WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2533 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW). 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  2546,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  0 MAY:  2546 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 2546 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

55.980 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.25) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS.  WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (2533 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES WERE DUE TO i) HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A HUMONGOUS INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  FOR MAR, iii) STRONG COMEX OI GAIN AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

MAR

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAR:

12,801 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 12,801 CONTRACTS) OR 64.005 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 985 CONTRACTS OR 4.923 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 64.005 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 64.005. MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: A STRONG: 64.005 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2176, DESPITE OUR  $0.25 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 370 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2546 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (DESPITE OUR $0.25 LOSS IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  370 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 2163 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.25 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $25.96 //TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW MAR.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 202 NOTICE(S) FOR  1,010,000, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4546 CONTRACTS TO 476,467, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE  INCREASE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE  OF $2.00///COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY.WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG ADVANCE IN GOLD STANDING  AT THE COMEX TO 28.1835 TONNES FOR MARCH..

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.00 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN  OF 6884 CONTRACTS 21.41 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 2,698 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  2338 AND JUNE:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2,338.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 476,467. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6,884 CONTRACTS: 4546 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2,338 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 6884 CONTRACTS OR 21.41 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2338) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (4546 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  6884 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUMONGOUS ADVANCE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT MAR. MONTH T0 28.1839 TONNES3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) GOOD COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL  GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING/TUESDAY//$2.00!!. 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

We have now switched to GOLD for our spreaders!!

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAR. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

MAR

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR : 49,703, CONTRACTS OR 4,970,300 oz OR 154.59 TONNES (13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3823 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 154.59 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 154.59/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.35% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..THUS EFP’S IN SILVER INCREASING AND GOLD EFP’S DECREASING
MARCH:.154.59 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN//EQUAL TO JANUARY)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2163 CONTRACTS FROM 156,929 UP TO 159,092 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING//REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR MARCH., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,

EFP ISSUANCE 370 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  0 ; MAY: 370 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 370 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 2163 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 370 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2533 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12.665 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.25 LOSS IN PRICE///

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.18 PTS OR .03%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 6.43 PTS OR .02%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 6.76 POINTS OR 0.02%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.44%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil DOWN TO 64.33 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.65 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5046. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5085 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY GOOD SIZED 4546 CONTRACTS TO 478,100 MOVING CLOSER TO  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN OF $2.00 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING)… WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (2,338 CONTRACTS). THE BANKERS ARE MIGHTILY SCARED OF LONGS STANDING FOR DELIVERY.  ON TUESDAY’S SESSION WE NO DOUBT HAD AGAIN  1)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING,  2) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)ANOTHER  HUGE//ATMOSPHERIC  ADVANCE IN STANDING AT THE GOLD  COMEX//MAR. DELIVERY MONTH(28.192. TONNES) (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6,884 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2,338 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ; FEB// ’21  0 AND APRIL:  2,338, JUNE:  0 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2,338  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

HOWEVER, WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE. EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. LONDON IS OUT OF METAL.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED 6884 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2338 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 4546 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH  (28.192 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $2.00)., AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A STRONG 26.49 TONNES,  ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (28.192 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 6,884 CONTRACTS OR 6884 OZ OR  21.41  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  476,467 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 47.64 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1482 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1482/2200 OR 67.35% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 162,879 contracts// volume extremely  poor//

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  194,753 contracts//  volume:  poor–/ //most of our traders have left for London

MARCH 17 /2021

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAR COMEX GOLD
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
114,038.540 oz
HSBC
LOOMIS
MANFRA
MALCA
ALL 4 KILOBAR ENTRIES
THUS 3.547 TONNES OF KILOBARS REMOVED//
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
NIL
No of oz served (contracts) today
6  notice(s)
600 OZ
(0.01866 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
834 contracts
(83,400oz)
2.5940 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8227 notices
822,700 OZ
25.589 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

total deposit:  nil   oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

4 withdrawals from  the customer account (4/4 were kilobar transactions)

i) Out of  HSBC: 9645.000  oz (300 kilobars)
ii) Out of Loomis: 34,239.75 oz (1065 kilobars)
iii) Out of Malca: 51,441.600 oz (1600 kilobars)
iv) Out of Manfra 18,711.89 oz (582 kilobars)
total withdrawals:  114,038.540  (3.547 tonnes)

We had 5  kilobar transactions (out of 5 transactions or 100%kilobars)

ADJUSTMENTS  1:   customer to dealer

Loomis:  9645.000 oz  (300 kilobars)

The front month of MAR registered a total of 843 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 651 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 9 NOTICES FILED ON  TUESDAY SO WE GAINED ANOTHER MONSTROUS 660 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 66,000 OZ OR 2.052 TONNES WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MARCH DELIVERY MONTH.  THIS IS A RECORD FOR  QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MONTH AS OUR BANKERS ARE SHORT OF GOLD AND WILL DO ANYTHING TO JUMP AHEAD OF UNSUSPECTING LONGS TO OBTAIN METAL. MARCH IS GENERALLY A NON ACTIVE MONTH BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT THIS CASE THIS MONTH. SOMEBODY NEEDS AN URGENT SUPPLY OF PHYSICAL GOLD!!!!!!!

APRIL, THE NEXT FRONT MONTH, LOST A TINY 651 contracts to stand at 209,474. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A MONSTER APRIL DELIVERY MONTHIN GOLD. 

MAY LOST A SMALL 24 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 354

JUNE GAINED  3606 CONTRACTS UP TO 206,995

We had 6 notice(s) filed today for 600 oz

FOR THE MAR 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 6  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8227) x 7503 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAR // 843 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 6 x 100 oz per contract) equals 906,400 OZ OR 28.192 TONNESthe number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH contract month:

No of notices filed so far 8227 x 100 oz  + ( 843 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (6} x 100 oz which equals 906,400 oz standing OR 28.192 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of MARCH. This is a HUGE/ATMOSPHERIC amount standing for GOLD IN MARCH, A GENERALLY POOR NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

WE GAINED A STRONG 657 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL,65,700 OZ WILL STAND ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  scotia gone//PAID ITS PLEDGED GOLD OFF

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

339,772.427 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.5687 TONNES

312,798.505 oz  JPM  9.72 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,301,674.057 oz                                     71.59 tonnes

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 489.24 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 28.192 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  18,030,849.610 oz or 560.83 tonnes
total weight of pledged:  2,301,674.057 oz or 71.59 tonnes
thus:
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,729,175.0  (489,24 tonnes) a  slight gain of .3 tonnes due to adjustments
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,729,175.0 (489.44 tonnes)
total eligible gold: 19,847,957.024 , oz (617.35 tonnes)

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 37,878,806.634 oz or 1,178.89 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1052.55 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
END

MARCH 17/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/MAR

MAR. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
2,889,698.162 oz
Int Delaware
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
603,876.860 oz
CNT
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
202
CONTRACT(S)
(1,010,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1113 contracts
 5,565,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  10,129 contracts 50,645,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into Delaware: 377,197.826 iz

JPMorgan now has 190.949 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.34% of all official comex silver. (190.949 million/371.913 million

total customer deposits today:  nil   oz

we had 5 withdrawals:

i) out of CNT 600,269.100 oz
ii) Out of  Delaware  11,982.550 oz
iii) Out of Manfra:  976,134.502 oz
iv) JPMorgan:  1,200,931.700 OZ
v) Int Delaware  100,380.310 oz

total withdrawals 2,889,698.162   oz

6th day in a row more than 1 million oz net  silver leaves the comex//today 2.50 million oz

We had 0 adjustment:

Total dealer(registered) silver: 127.000million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  371.913 million oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MARCH saw a GAIN of 60contracts to stand at 1269. We had 168 contracts served on TUESDAY, so we  GAINED A HUGE 228 contracts or an additional 1,140,000 oz will stand for delivery in this  active delivery month of March. These guys refused to morph into London based forwards as there is no silver metal on their side of the pond so they will try their luck over here. 

April GAINED AN ASTONSHING  237 contracts to stand at 2764. (It rose instead of rolling to the next month).

May GAINED 1878 contracts to stand at  127,026 contracts. May is the next active month and it seems the cavalry are showing up for silver as well. Thus we have April, a non active month remaining high in oi and May refuses to contract.!

Both April and May are going to be dandy delivery months. May I remind everyone that silver fell 25 cents yesterday.

The total number of notices filed today for MARCH 2021. contract month is represented by 202 contract(s) FOR 1,010,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  10,129 x 5,000 oz = 50,645,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (1269) and the number of notices served upon today 202 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the MAR standings for silver for the MAR/2021 contract month: 10,129 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MARCH(1269- number of notices served upon today (202) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 55,980,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MAR MONTH.

We GAINED a huge 228 contracts or an additional 1,140,000 oz will stand for delivery as the refused to  morph into London based forwards.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 38,206 CONTRACTS // volume extremely poor// volumes falling off a cliff//

FOR YESTERDAY  51,734  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//poor

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO -0.30% ((MAR 17/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO –1.83% to NAV:   (MAR 17/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/0.30%(MAR 17/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 18.88 TRADING 18.20//NEGATIVE 3.60

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.07 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A REMOVAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.27 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.23 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.98 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $37.40 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.44 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD  DOWN $21.00  TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.26 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.30 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.38 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.12 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $9.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WHOPPING WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.50 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65 DOLLARS; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.7 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.54 TONNES.

FEB 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.24 TONNES//

FEB 25/ WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1106.36 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD// RESTS AT 1110.44 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1115.40 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $30.00 TODAY: STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1127.64 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 18//WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.68 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORYRESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.38 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1146.60 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1148.34 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1152.43 TONNES.

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1156.51 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $20.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $42.05 TODAY: STRANGE: HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.34 TONNES ADDED INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $12.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1160.13 TONNES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 4.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1164.80 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.71 TONNES LEAVES THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.17 TONNES

JANUARY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS 1172.38 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

MARCH 17 / GLD INVENTORY 1050.07 tonnes

LAST;  1019 TRADING DAYS:   +116.51 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 949 TRADING DAYS// +  302.75TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366  MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.501 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 3.90 MILION OZ AT 5.20..: TOTAL LOSSS 10.4 MILLLLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 596.616 MILLION OZ

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 76 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.486 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.017 MILLION OZ

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.774 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 605.531 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1.WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.593 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ.

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.17 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.857 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM//AND ANOTHER 1.858 MILLION OZ AT 5.20 EST//INVENTORY RESTS AT 615.898 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ//

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORIES AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: TWO ENTRIES I) HUGE CHANGE ISN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 127,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 7.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.322 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND 6.873 MILLION OF AT 5 20 PM EST/INVENTORY RESTS AT 611.685 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY : TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AN ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL 5.758 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP  1 CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 83,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.623 MILLION OZ//

FEB 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.044 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.530 MILLION OZ//

FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.312 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 630.574 MILLION OZ.

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 634.986 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 17.882 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.53 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 654.726 MILLION OZ//

FEB 5/WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 0.54 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 10.079 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A MIND NUMBING: 56.784 MILION OZ “DEPOSIT” INTO THE SLV at 3 pm AND A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.99 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 5 PM//WITH THESE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 669.357 MILLION OZ//

FEB2//WITH SILVER DOWN  $2.81 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN UNBELEIVABLE DEPOSIT OF 18.627 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 620.563 MILLION OZ//

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.56 TODAY: A FAIRY TALE DEPOSIT OF 34.419 MILLION OZ INTO  SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 601.936 MILLION OZ//

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 58 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.366 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.517 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.393 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.883 MILLION OZ/

JAN 27/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A XXXWITHDRAWAL OF 3.022 MILLION OZ OF IMAGINARY SILVER// INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.277 MILLION OZ/

JAN 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ///

JAN 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 2.044 MILLION XXXXOZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ./.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

MARCH 16/2021
592.438 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) PETER SCHIFF…

Poland Wants More Gold: “The ‘Most Reserve’ Of Reserve Currencies”

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 05:00 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Poland’s gold-buying spree isn’t over…

In 2018, the National Bank of Poland began aggressively adding gold to its reserves. Through the first half of 2019, the Polish central bank added more than 100 tons of gold, nearly doubling its reserves.

So, why did Poland decide to significantly increase its gold hoard? In a nutshell, to shield itself from geopolitical risk. In its statement, the bank said:

Gold is the ‘most reserve’ of reserve assets: it diversifies the geopolitical risk and is a kind of anchor of trust, especially in times of tension and crises.”

Now the Poles want to add another 100 tons to their reserves over the next several years. During an interview Monday, National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapiński said the bank currently holds 229 tons of gold, about half purchased during his term in office.

Over the course of a few years, we want to buy at least another 100 tonnes of gold and keep it in Poland as well.”

Glapiński has made increasing gold reserves a centerpiece of his tenure as National Bank of Poland governor. In January, he said that gold’s share of the central bank’s reserves should rise to 20% during his next term. Currently, the Polish central bank holds about 9% of its reserves in the yellow metal.

Not only has Poland added significantly to its hoard of gold, but it also moved a lot of it home. In November 2019, Glapiński announced that Poland had repatriated 100 tons of gold, moving it from England.

“The gold symbolizes the strength of the country,” Glapiński told reporters at the time.

As Reuters report notes that central banks have stepped up purchases of gold, particularly in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Asia, “often seeing it as a way to reduce reliance on assets such as the US dollar.”

For instance, in 2019, the Hungarian central bank announced it boosted its gold reserves 10-fold. A statement by the bank said the increase in gold stocks was intended to increase financial stability and strengthen market confidence.

In keeping with the historical role of gold, it remains one of the safest instruments in the world, which, even under normal market conditions, exposes its stability and confidence.”

A number of countries have also repatriated some or all of their gold reserves over the last several years, most recently Hungary and Romania. In the summer of 2017, Germany completed a project to bring half of its gold reserves back inside its borders. The country moved some $31 billion worth of the yellow metal back to Germany from vaults in England, France and the US. In 2015, Australia announced a plan to bring half of its reserves home. The Netherlands and Belgium also launched repatriation programs. Even the state of Texas has put a plan in place to bring its gold within state borders.

Gold repatriation underscores the importance of holding physical gold where you can easily access it. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and “paper gold” have their place. But true security and stability come from physical possession of precious metals. If you can’t hold it in your hand, you don’t really possess it. That’s exactly why these countries are bringing their gold home, safe within their own vaults.

Peter Schiff has talked about central bank gold-buying. He has noted that the US went off the gold standard in 1971, but he thinks the world is going to go back on it.

The days where the dollar is the reserve currency are numbered and we’re going back to basics. You know, everything old is new again. Gold was money in the past and it will be money again in the future, and central banks that are smart enough to read that writing on the wall are increasing their gold reserves now.”

Ron Paul made a similar point in an episode of the Liberty report. He said foreign central banks are increasingly gravitating to sound money like gold and ripping themselves away from the Fed’s dollar

END

Peter Schiff: We’re Adrift In A Sea Of Inflation

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 01:30 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

We’ve gotten quite a bit of economic data this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell insists inflation is anchored at 2%. But his assurances notwithstanding, a lot of the data signals inflation. In his podcast, Peter went over some of the numbers and concluded that inflation isn’t anchored at all. It’s anchors aweigh. We are adrift in a sea of inflation.

Bond yields have continued to tick up this week. In fact, the yield on the 10-year Treasury topped 1.65% early Wednesday, hitting a new 13-month high. There has been some speculation that bond yields are going to at least pause, and possibly come down, but Peter doesn’t think that will happen. He said the path of least resistance is up.

Other than the Fed coming to the party with a big new bond purchase program, there’s just not enough buying. The amount of bonds the Fed is buying right now pales in comparison to what the Treasury is trying to sell and what the rest of the world wants to unload. So, I think this is just wishful thinking that interest rates are going to start rising.”

Retail sales took a big plunge in February. January’s already big stimulus-fueled gain was revised upward from 5.3% to 7.6%. So even more spending of government money went on in January than was previously estimated. But in February, retail sales fell 3%.

Really, it shows how much the spending slows down when you don’t have government money to spend. Now, of course, there’s a new round of checks that are going to be showing up in the mailbox or in people’s accounts. So, that’s probably going to spike the numbers.”

Industrial production and manufacturing were both way down in February. Industrial production fell 2.2%. Meanwhile, manufacturing output charted a decline of 3.1%. Capacity utilization also contracted unexpectedly from 75.5 to 73.8.

People were expecting the US economy to be more productive. Instead, it was substantially less productive, even as Americans are still spending all this money. So, how are we bridging this gap? If we’re producing a lot less stuff, but we’re all buying a lot more stuff, where are we getting the difference? Where is the stuff coming from? Well, I’ve talked about it. It’s coming from imports.”

As Peter talked about in a previous podcast, the goods trade deficit in January set a record.

The American economy, despite all the headlines, is very weak. That’s why it can’t produce. Anybody can spend if the government is handing out money. But it takes a real economy to produce stuff. So, America is more reliant than ever before on the stronger economies outside the United States because those are the economies that are producing the goods that Americans are incapable of producing. So, we’re buying those goods and paying for them with the money the Fed prints.”

Meanwhile, the year-over-year gain in import prices was 3%. Not only are we making less stuff and having to import the difference, but all the stuff we’re importing is getting more and more expensive.

That is a huge year-over-year gain. Remember, the Fed is talking about 2% inflation. Here we’ve got import prices already up 3% year-over-year. And you know what? That number is going much higher.”

Export prices were also up significantly, rising 5.2% year-over-year in February. That was more than double the projection.

Peter said these are big numbers, but they are going to get even bigger.

We’re also seeing a big increase in the price of building a home. Lumber prices are at record levels. According to National Association of Home Builders Chairman Chuck Fowke, the elevated price of lumber is adding approximately $24,000 to the price of a new home.

recent survey asked portfolio managers about their biggest concerns. COVID-19 isn’t on the list. The number one concern is inflation running hotter than anticipated. The second biggest worry is that the Fed will have to tighten monetary policy and raise rates, causing the stock market will throw a “taper tantrum.” And of course, the only reason the Fed would have to tighten monetary policy is if inflation running hotter.

Peter said they’re right to be worried that inflation is going to be higher than expected. But they’re wrong to worry that the Fed is going to do something about it.

What they should be worried about is that the Fed will do nothing about it. And that’s what’s worse. Because that means the higher inflation that they’re concerned about is actually going to be much higher than they think for the precise reason that what they’re afraid of – the Fed doing something about it – won’t happen because the Fed will do nothing about it, and so the real damage caused by inflation will be much worse.”

Ironically, the Fed doesn’t seem to be worried about inflation at all. The last time Powell spoke, he assured everybody that inflation expectations are well-anchored at 2%.

Yet all the anecdotal evidence that we are seeing suggests that that’s not the case — that there is no anchor — that we’re adrift in a sea of inflation.”

END

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Craig Hemke of Sprott notes what I have been telling you: huge amounts of gold leaving the comex

(Craig Hemke/Sprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Comex gold offtake remains extraordinarily high

 Section: Daily Dispatches

4:15p ET Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold offtake at the New York Commodities Exchange, operated by CME Group, remains extraordinarily high, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke writes at Sprott Money today.

Hemke writes that the Comex isn’t breaking yet. But he concludes: “The CME Group and the London Bullion Market Association truly opened Pandora’s Box when, in a desperate attempt to shore up confidence in their pricing scheme, they advertised and converted their Comex contracts into physical delivery vehicles following the events of March and April 2020.

“By doing so, the CME and LBMA very likely sealed the fate of their fraudulent pricing system, and the continued delivery demands of 2021 are maintaining the pressure and stress felt by the bullion banks in the 12 months since.”

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Comex ‘Delivery’ Update” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/COMEX-Delivery-Update-Craig-Hemke-March…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

A good article by Chris Powell as he criticizes Bloomberg’s Ed Moy for not going deeper into the folly of gold pricing

(Chris Powell/Bloomberg news/Ed Moy)

Everything Bloomberg News wants you to know about gold isn’t much

 Section: Daily Dispatches

11:28a ET Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bloomberg News today devotes much of its home page to an eight-minute video segment by its reporter Henry Baker that apparently was first posted several weeks ago and is ridiculously and arrogantly titled “Everything You Need to Know About Gold,” as if such knowledge could be conveyed in eight minutes.

The segment might be more accurately titled “Everything Bloomberg News Wants You to Know About Gold — and No More.”

.

Baker begins by asserting the most common fallacy about gold — that it pays no interest. But of course gold can pay interest, just as regular government currencies can, when it is lent, as it often has been lent by governments themselves in pursuit of suppressing its price and competition with government currencies.

Then Baker recommends exchange-traded funds as good vehicles for investors who want to own gold, without acknowledging that some gold ETFs play fast and loose with the metal they claim to own.

To his credit, Baker interviews the former director of the U.S. Mint, Ed Moy, and an anonymous “stacker,” who make some valid points, though when Baker questions Moy about the U.S. gold reserve at Fort Knox nothing is said about whether any of the metal may be encumbered by leasing, swapping, or other mechanisms.

Of course the segment omits any mention of surreptitious intervention in the gold market by governments and central banks to manipulate the monetary metal’s price.

Nothing is said about the Bank for International Settlements, which provides camouflage for that intervention and whose surreptitious activity in the gold market on behalf of its central bank members is now at a record level.

Nor is there any mention of the U.S. Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, which is authorized to intervene secretly in any market in the world and whose funds for market intervention were recently increased by hundreds of billions of dollars, as if the U.S. government was planning a lot more secret intervention.

Also left out are the recent confessions by major investment banks to manipulating the gold market, and the hundreds of millions of dollars in fines those banks have paid as penalties.

Apparently Bloomberg News doesn’t think its audience needs to know about that stuff, though GATA long has provided the news organization with comprehensive documentation.

All Bloomberg News wants you to know about gold can be viewed here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-02-25/everything-you-need-to-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

iii) Other physical stories:

A history lesson on the ESF  (Plunge Protection Team)

Janet Yellen’s Plunge Protection Team Has $142 Billion to Play With

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: March 17, 2021

Wall Street On Parade

Most Americans are unaware of the existence of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). Together with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed) it has morphed into the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s Plunge Protection Team.

The ESF was created in 1934 to provide support to the U.S. dollar during the Great Depression. As recently as March 31, 2007, the ESF was fairly modest in size, with assets of just $45.9 billion. Prior to Trump taking office, it had grown to $94.3 billion in assets. But thanks to a fancy maneuver by President Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, the ESF skyrocketed to a staggering balance of $682 billion as of September 30, 2020.

Mnuchin was able to give himself this massive slush fund by helping to write the 2020 stimulus bill known as the CARES Act, which handed him $500 billion. The language in the bill said that Mnuchin was to provide $454 billion of the $500 billion to the Federal Reserve to create emergency lending facilities to support the economy during the pandemic. But all Mnuchin ever provided to the Fed was $114 billion. He kept the rest in the ESF. We know that because the Fed has confirmed to us that all it ever received was $114 billion and the Fed’s own financial statements also confirmed that. The official financial statements of the ESF confirmed that it received the full $500 billion from the CARES Act. In addition, this information was confirmed by the Congressional Research Service on December 17 of last year.

The Exchange Stabilization Fund is governed by Section 5302 of Title 31 of the U.S. Code. It provides the U.S. Treasury Secretary with the following authorities:

“Subject to approval by the President, the fund is under the exclusive control of the Secretary, and may not be used in a way that direct control and custody pass from the President and the Secretary. Decisions of the Secretary are final and may not be reviewed by another officer or employee of the Government.

“…the Secretary or an agency designated by the Secretary, with the approval of the President, may deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities the Secretary considers necessary.”

Since stocks and bonds are “securities” in which the Treasury Secretary is allowed to intervene, Janet Yellen now sits atop her own Plunge Protection Team.

Since a trading floor at the U.S. Treasury Department might raise some eyebrows, it’s all been handled quietly for years at the trading desk of the New York Fed – photos of which the New York Fed refused to provide to Wall Street On Parade. We obtained our own photo, shown above, from a Fed educational video that provided a brief glimpse of the trading floor.

The statutory language above that reads “Decisions of the Secretary are final and may not be reviewed by another officer or employee of the Government,” would seem to prevent the Government Accountability Office from conducting an audit of the ESF or for the Treasury’s Inspector General to conduct an audit or investigation. Since members of Congress receive a paycheck from the government, thus making them government employees, the statute would even seem to bar Congress from prying open the doors to this secret trading vault.

According to the New York Fed’s website, it conducts the trading on behalf of the ESF. The New York Fed reports that: “ESF operations are conducted through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its capacity as fiscal agent for the Treasury.”

The ESF does make a monthly financial statement available to the public. According to its most recent financial statement dated January 31, 2021, it has assets of $142 billion. (When Trump was not re-elected, Mnuchin forced most of the CARES Act money in the ESF to be returned to the General Fund of the Treasury.)

But here’s the interesting thing about the ESF’s monthly financial statements: they show the public simply a snapshot of where things stand on the last day of each month. The public has no idea what kind of trading was conducted by the ESF or what assets it held on the other 353 days of the year. For all the public knows, the ESF could be propping up the stock market by buying S&P 500 futures contracts.

If the ESF is not doing something nefarious with its billions in assets, why has it carved out this exception for itself to be free of any oversight at all by government watchdogs? Moreover, why hasn’t Congress rewritten the preposterous part of this statute that enshrines clandestine operations by this Treasury slush fund?

We know that the ESF was previously part of a bailout operation for Wall Street when the mega banks on Wall Street crashed the entire financial system in 2008. What occurred then was that toxic subprime debt and derivatives began blowing up at financial institutions like Citigroup, Lehman Brothers and AIG and numerous others. Commercial paper issued by these financial institutions that was held in money market funds that are supposed to be safe and liquid – and return $1 dollar plus interest for each $1 dollar deposited – became suspect and couldn’t be priced or dropped steeply in value. Money market funds then began “breaking a buck,” that is, being worth less than $1 per share. This set off a panic and withdrawals across money market funds.

On September 19, 2008, four days after Lehman Brothers filed bankruptcy, the U.S. Treasury announced it would be using the Exchange Stabilization Fund to “insure the holdings of any publicly offered eligible money market mutual fund – both retail and institutional….”

-END-

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN AT 6.5046 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.5086   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 1.18 PTS OR .03%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 6.43 PTS OR .02%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 6.76 POINTS OR 0.02%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 91.98/Euro FALLS TO 1.1895

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.09/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.22/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 64.33 and Brent: 67.65

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.30%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.68% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.35%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 0.98: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.94

3k Gold at $1729.60 silver at: 25.90   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 145/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.83

3m oil into the 64 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.22 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9285 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1045 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.30%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.670% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.418%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.53..

Nasdaq Futures Tumble As Treasury Yields Suddenly Surge Ahead Of FOMC

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 07:52 AM

S&P futures edged lower, European and Asian markets were mostly lower and Treasury yields climbed sharply ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting at which officials will deliver their outlook for the economy amid an overheating recovery that risks stoking inflation, and where all eyes will be the median 2023 dot for a potential hawkish signal that sends yields soaring.

At 0715 a.m. ET, S&P 500 E-minis were down 14 points, or 0.34% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 148 points, or 1.13. The FAAMG stocks all slumped while Fuel-cell firm Plug Power Inc. plunged more than 20% in pre-market trading after it disclosed accounting errors.

The 10-year TSY yield ticked up to a new 13-month high of 1.6656% ahead of the policy decision, with market-implied inflation expectations are at 12-year highs even after yesterday’s 20-year bond auction drew stellar demand…

…. hammering demand for high-growth technology stocks, and sending Nasdaq 100 futs tumbling.

Powell and company are expected to issue a blowout GDP forecast for 2021 at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday, at 2 p.m. ET (1800 GMT) which will be followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference shortly after.

Echoing what we said yesterday, Nordea macro strategist Sebastien Galy said that “there is a decent chance that the rates forecasts from the 18 members committee could start focusing on a 2023 hike which would be quite a surprise, that Chairman Powell would then try to walk back in his speech.”

Rates markets are positioned for the Fed to raise borrowing costs sooner than current guidance suggests. Higher inflation expectations have boosted bond yields and sparked a rotation from growth to value stocks. Bond investor Bill Gross predicted in a Bloomberg TV interview that inflation will rise to 3% to 4% in the coming months.

“The concern is the assets that have worked best over the last decade — rates, credit of all kinds and long-duration equities — may not be the only games in town any more,” said David Wong, investment strategist at AllianceBernstein.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index is down 0.4% with the UK’s FTSE 100 underperforming slightly. Autos, media and banks broadly offsetting softness in oil & gas, retail and mining stocks.  The Stoxx Europe 600 Energy Index slides as much as 1.3% after European renewable-energy stocks fell, with the high-flying sub-sector’s sensitivity to higher bond yields dragging on the shares. Wind- turbine makers Vestas and Siemens Gamesa, solar firm Scatec and electrolyzer company Nel were the worst performers in the subgroup. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • BMW shares gain as much as 5.5% after results and setting electric vehicles targets. Morgan Stanley said the focus will be on a “sharp acceleration” in battery electric vehicle targets, which may be “enough to offset uneventful earnings.”
  • MorphoSys shares advanced as much as 5% as the biopharmaceutical firm rebounded from yesterday’s 11% slump following FY results and 2021 guidance. Berenberg said that FY20 results were “upbeat” and set a foundation for future growth.
  • Rolls-Royce shares rise as much as 4.6% after the engineer was upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan and had its price target raised at Berenberg. JPMorgan cited investors turning more optimistic because of vaccine progress, as well as the stock lagging behind peers since 2018.
  • Allegro shares drop as much as 8.7% after major shareholders decided to sell 7% stake via an accelerated book- building before the end of its lock-up period. MBank said the large stake sale prior to 180 days pledged by major shareholders as lock-up period is “definitely a disappointment.”
  • Verbund shares fall as much as 6.9%, with Barclays saying the market focus will be on the utility’s outlook, which is significantly weaker than expected. The company’s 2021 outlook miss was predominantly due to step-down in Grid unit earnings and lower flexibility products revenue, Barclays said in a note.

Earlier in the session, Asia’s equity benchmark headed for its third drop in four days, pulled down by weakness in the semiconductor sector. Regional chip giants TSMC and Samsung were among the heaviest drags on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, after Samsung warned of a “serious” imbalance in the semiconductor industry and said it may have to delay the introduction of one of its key smartphones. Communication services and materials sectors were the other big losers. Equity gauges in India and South Korea were the worst performers in Asia. However, benchmarks in China and Vietnam rose, with the CSI 300 Index capping a second day of gains as telecom and consumer discretionary shares climbed.

As shown above, treasury futures volumes spiked as 10-year yields rose above 1.65%, topping at 1.6673% in early U.S. session. The move appeared to be technically driven, with 10-year yields back up to cheapest levels of the year. Gilts lead developed bond markets lower following 2035 bond sale while bunds outperform. Trading may be subdued into FOMC decision at 2pm ET. As 10-year yield exceeded its February 2020 high for the first time, 20k 10-year note futures changed hands on the move down to 131-21+ lows; 5s10s30s fly cheapened, approaching its March 8 multiyear high. Fixed income had a quiet start in Europe with price action stalling ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. Gilts and bund curves bear steepen slightly. Long end of the U.K. curve underperformed, trading ~1.5bps cheaper to bunds. Peripheral spreads are mostly tighter to core, Greece underperforms with focus on its 30y syndication. Treasuries bear flatten a touch, 10y yields ~2bps higher near 1.64%.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index was initially flat but then spiked, trading higher versus most major peers. The euro edged up after dipping below $1.18; one-day volatility in euro-dollar has risen to levels unseen since the U.S. election in November, while swap markets are outpricing the Fed ‘dots’ in a rare occurrence before the decision. The pound bucked a three-day losing streak amid speculation the Bank of England could take a relatively hawkish stance at its policy meeting Thursday. Australian 10-year yields extended gains and Aussie eased on greenback positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

Crude futures reverse Asia’s gains. WTI drops 0.6% near $64.40, Brent drops as much as 0.9% after the IEA said markets aren’t on the verge of a new price supercycle. Bitcoin held at about $55,000, below the weekend record above $61,000. Spot gold trades a tight range. Base metals trade well with LME aluminum and tin outperforming.

As DB’s Jim Reid writes, today is all about the conclusion of the 2-day FOMC and Powell’s subsequent press conference with this meeting also including the latest economic projections and dot plot from the FOMC’s members. Back in December when the last dot plot was released, it showed that most of the committee favored keeping rates on hold at least through to the end of 2023. But since then we’ve seen a sharp move higher in Treasury yields thanks to the passage of the $1.9tn stimulus package, and markets are now pricing in an initial hike from the Fed within the next 2 years and three hikes in total by the end of 2023. With a more robust outlook ahead, DB US economists expect that one hike should be reflected in the committee’s updated projections out to end 2023 (via the median dot) but it’s a close call. However higher growth and lower unemployment will be in the forecasts, as well as a modestly higher inflation trajectory. The press conference may bring most of the focus though with every word scrutinised and cross examined given the recent run up in yields. Powell has now presided over 24 FOMCs and on average the S&P 500 has been -0.15% (15 out of the 24 were down days) lower on decision day – though this is heavily weighted by his first 7 meetings, which saw equities slip back when the Fed started its small hiking cycle in 2018. In terms of 10 year yields they have been -3.0bps lower on average with a median of -1.6bps (16 out 24 down in yield) on Powell FOMC days. To put this in perspective the S&P 500 is up +49.5% since his tenure begun in February 2018 and 10yr yields are down -108.8bps.

To the day ahead now, and the highlight is likely to be the aforementioned FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. In addition, the ECB’s Elderson will be speaking. Separately, data releases include US housing starts and building permits for February, as well as EU new car registrations for the same month.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down less than 0.1% to 3,950.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 falls 0.3%
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 208.31
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 692.22
  • Nikkei little changed at 29,914.33
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,984.03
  • Hang Seng Index little changed at 29,034.12
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,445.55
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 50,015.22
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 6,795.23
  • Kospi down 0.6% to 3,047.50
  • Brent Futures little changed at $68.43/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,734.91
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 91.96
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.008 bps to -0.328%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1892

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The rebounding greenback and weakness in global tech shares are curbing demand for Taiwan’s currency, reducing pressure on the central bank to act to slow appreciation
  • Market expectations for a sustained rise in inflation and withdrawal of policy support are misplaced, creating buying opportunities in corporate bonds, according to BlackRock Inc. and Lombard Odier
  • Greece is issuing its longest-maturity bonds since 2008, completing the country’s full return to debt markets. The nation is selling 30-year bonds via banks, which could be an opportunity for investors to pick up yields that are likely to be the highest in the euro area
  • Senior U.S. officials sought to set a low bar on expectations for the Biden administration’s first face-to-face meeting with Chinese officials later this week, saying it will be more about discussing priorities — and differences — than trying to craft agreements
  • The U.K. government revealed plans to slash the amount of carbon dioxide spewed out by factories and other industrial processes by two-thirds within the next 15 years
  • Support for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc slumped to its lowest in a year as discontent over the government’s handling of the vaccination rollout mounts and some opposition leaders called for her to fire the health minister

Quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded in a subdued manner after the similar handover from the US with participants also cautious ahead of a busy schedule of central bank announcements including the FOMC later today. ASX 200 (-0.5%) was pressured amid underperformance in commodity-related stocks and as nearly all sectors suffered losses aside from tech and telecoms. Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) initially bucked the trend after a rebound in USD/JPY and with Japan planning to lift the state of emergency for the Tokyo area on March 21st but then succumbed to the broad cautious mood which was not helped by weaker than expected trade data. Hang Seng (unch.) and Shanghai Comp. (unch.) opened with losses amid tough rhetoric from the US heading into Thursday’s high-level meeting in Alaska with an official stating they will lay out specific areas where the US believes Beijing needs to take steps to change course and will make clear the concerns regarding China’s malicious cyber activity. The official also noted that the US doesn’t expect specific negotiated deliverables from the meeting, nor does it anticipate issuing a joint statement, while there were separate comments from Secretary of State Blinken that China is acting more aggressively and more repressively. Nonetheless, Chinese markets briefly reversed their losses spearheaded by a recovery in tech and growth which saw the ChiNext rebound from losses of 1.5% to trade higher on the session by a similar extent. Finally, 10yr JGBs were steady with prices kept afloat by the subdued risk tone and with the BoJ also present in the market for more than JPY 1.3tln of JGBs with 1yr-25yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • Apple Is Said to Cut Off China’s Ofilm Over Xinjiang Labor
  • Naver Plans Debut Dollar Bond as Korea Web Firms Expand Abroad
  • Asia Chip Stocks Slip as Samsung Warns of Severe Global Shortage
  • Hong Kong Vaccine Bookings Jump in First Day of Expanded Access

European equities saw somewhat of a uninspiring cash open and have since retained a downside bias (Euro Stoxx -0.1%) after the region took a similar cue from the APAC session, albeit the depth of the price action is shallow in the run up to the blockbuster FOMC policy announcement at 18:00GMT and presser at 18:30GMT (full preview available in the Newsquawk Research Suite). Ahead of that, reports note that billions of Dollars in stimulus payments are expected to drop into Americans’ bank accounts later today, with expectations for some to be funnelled into the stock market. Nonetheless, US equity futures remain subdued with the cyclically-led RTY (-0.5%) the laggard vs the NQ (-0.2%), ES (-0.1%) and YM (Unch). Back to Europe, Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.1%) and Germany’s DAX (+0.1%) fare modestly better vs peers, with the former led by Italian banks, whilst the latter is kept afloat by auto names VW (+5.8%) and BMW (+5.0%) amid their ambitious plans to expand in the EV space, with BMW targeting some 2mln EV deliveries by end-2025 whilst guiding its group pretax this year “significantly” above 2020 levels. Sectors in Europe are mostly in the red with the exception of Autos, Media and Banks, with the latter due to the high-yield environment. Laggards mostly incorporate some of the more cyclical “reopening” or “recovery” sectors including, Retail, Basic Resources, Travel & Leisure and Oil & Gas – with the IBEX (-0.4%) narrowly underperforming the region amid its exposure to these sectors. In terms of individual movers, BT (+4.6%) extends on gains following a well-received OFCOM spectrum auctions. Rolls-Royce (+3.6%) is bolstered by an upgrade at JPM. AstraZeneca (-0.7%) is softer in the run-up to the EMA verdict on the blood clot reports (due tomorrow), with France, Germany, Spain and Italy have said they are awaiting an investigation by the EU’s regulator into reports of clots, set to be published tomorrow.

Top European News

  • Dutch Go to Polls With Rutte Set for Fourth Straight Term
  • Hargreaves Lansdown Sees Profit Boost on U.S. Share Trading
  • Backing for Merkel’s Bloc Sinks After Drubbing in Regional Votes
  • European Food & HPC Margin Prospects This Year Are ‘Weak:’ Citi

In FX, not the weakest G10 link by any means, but under pressure again and top heavy vs the Dollar above 1.1900 where 1.7 bn option expiries reside ahead of the Fed. However, the single currency has lurched some distance away from 1.2 bn at the 0.8600 strike against Sterling after stops at 0.8550 were finally tripped to push the cross down to test 2021 lows circa 0.8540 and underlying bids arrested a deeper retreat to expose the round number below. Hence, the Pound is being propped indirectly and gleaning sufficient support to stay within sight of the 1.3900 handle vs the Buck even though the DXY bounced towards 92.000 before fading again in the run up to the FOMC.

  • AUD/NZD – Yet more dovish remarks and guidance for the Aussie to digest overnight, and this time from Deputy Governor Kent ramming home the 2-3% inflation goal before lifting rates from the effective lower bound. Nevertheless, Aud/Usd is holding 0.7700+ status and Aud/Nzd is still hovering above 1.0750, as the Kiwi treads cautiously into Q4 NZ GDP following minor beats in current account metrics and an unchanged deficit as a proportion of GDP. Nzd/Usd is currently near the bottom of a 0.7195-73 range and Aud/Usd is closer to 0.7722 than 0.7747 awaiting the RBA bulletin and jobs data more importantly.
  • CAD/CHF/JPY – The Loonie, Franc and Yen remain locked within narrow bands against the Greenback, as Usd/Cad straddles 1.2450, Usd/Chf meanders between 0.9282-43 and Usd/Jpy continues to rotate around 109.00 in wake of worrying Japanese trade data revealing a much smaller than expected surplus due to a significantly larger than forecast fall in exports. Next up, Fed aside, Canadian CPI, Swiss producer/import prices and trade then Japanese inflation on the eve of the BoJ.
  • SCANDI/EM – Another swing in the pendulum between the Swedish Krona and its Norwegian peer, with the former unwinding some of Tuesday’s recovery gains towards 10.1400 vs the Euro, but latter rebounding through 10.1000 in anticipation of a hawkish twist from the Norges Bank tomorrow. Similarly, the Turkish Lira is looking for a boost from the CBRT on Thursday, albeit in actual tightening terms even though the Government has taken steps to cap fuel prices in an effort to combat above target inflation. Usd/Try is around 7.5000, while Usd/Cnh is circa 6.5000 eyeing China’s high level summit with the US over the next 2 days. Elsewhere, softer crude is undermining the Mexican Peso and Russian Rouble, though the Rub is also embroiled in ongoing diplomatic spats, awaiting new US sanctions and ready to retaliate.

WTI and Brent front month were firmer heading into the European open but have since given up APAC gains and then some, with the initial leg lower seen in the run-up to the IEA monthly oil report. The gains overnight were spurred by the surprise draw of 1mln bbls in US private inventories (vs exp. +3mln bbls), but this upside lost steam as Europe entered the fray, with the temporary suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine rollout, due to health concerns, potentially hampering recovery momentum against the backdrop of the slower inoculation seen in major EZ economies vs overseas. The IEA’s report was a damp squib as the agency left its oil demand forecast unchanged from the prior report, deviating from the EIA and OPEC. IEA noted that oil demand is seen returning to 2019 levels by 2023 and noted that stronger demand and OPEC + output reductions point to sharp stocks draws in H2 2021. That being said, much of the OECD’s vaccination momentum lies with tomorrow’s EMA verdict on the reported AstraZeneca vaccine-related blood clots, with France, Germany, Spain and Italy poised to make their decision based on the EMA. In terms of today’s trade, oil has been choppy in the run-up to the weekly EIA stocks figures – which will be released at the early time of 14:30GMT to those across the pond – whilst markets await the FOMC rate decision & press conference. WTI trades around the mid-USD 64.00/bbl (vs high USD 65.34/bbl) and Brent trades sub-USD 68.00/bbl (vs high USD 68.89/bbl). Onto precious metals, spot gold and silver are seeing marginal upside but are within a contained range as they await the aforementioned FOMC. Spot gold trades around USD 1,735/oz and spot silver on either side of USD 26/oz as they track Dollar action. Regarding base metals LME copper is firmer and back above USD 9,000/t as the EV-led firm demand outlook coincides with supply disruptions in some South American mines. Elsewhere, Dalian coking coal rose over 5%, propped up by supply concerns and the robust demand outlook, with reports of plants also ramping up production to chase profit. Lastly, Rusal expects global demand for aluminium to grow by 6.1% in 2021.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Feb. Building Permits est. 1.75m, prior 1.88m, revised 1.89m; MoM, est. -7.2%, prior 10.4%, revised 10.7%
  • 8:30am: Feb. Housing Starts est. 1.56m, prior 1.58m; MoM, est. -1.3%, prior -6.0%
  • 2pm: March Interest Rate on Excess Reserv, est. 0.10%, prior 0.10%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today is all about the conclusion of the 2-day FOMC and Powell’s subsequent press conference with this meeting also including the latest economic projections and dot plot from the FOMC’s members. Back in December when the last dot plot was released, it showed that most of the committee favoured keeping rates on hold at least through to the end of 2023. But since then we’ve seen a sharp move higher in Treasury yields thanks to the passage of the $1.9tn stimulus package, and markets are now pricing in an initial hike from the Fed within the next 2 years and three hikes in total by the end of 2023. With a more robust outlook ahead, our US economists (link here) expect that one hike should be reflected in the committee’s updated projections out to end 2023 (via the median dot) but it’s a close call. However higher growth and lower unemployment will be in the forecasts, as well as a modestly higher inflation trajectory. The press conference may bring most of the focus though with every word scrutinised and cross examined given the recent run up in yields. Powell has now presided over 24 FOMCs and on average the S&P 500 has been -0.15% (15 out of the 24 were down days) lower on decision day – though this is heavily weighted by his first 7 meetings, which saw equities slip back when the Fed started its small hiking cycle in 2018. In terms of 10 year yields they have been -3.0bps lower on average with a median of -1.6bps (16 out 24 down in yield) on Powell FOMC days. To put this in perspective the S&P 500 is up +49.5% since his tenure begun in February 2018 and 10yr yields are down -108.8bps.

Yesterday saw risk assets a little mixed ahead of today’s meeting, as investors brushed off recent vaccine concerns in Europe to send European equity markets higher, while US equity markets were more two paced. The S&P 500 finished down -0.16%, just off its record high from Monday, though in more positive news the VIX volatility index fell -0.3pts to its lowest level since the pandemic began, at 19.8pts. Looking at the US equity moves in more depth, only 30% of the S&P 500 constituents saw their stocks rise yesterday, with a large majority of the gains concentrated in semiconductors (+1.31%), media (+1.04%) and tech hardware (+0.95%). This helped the NASDAQ eke out the slimmest of gains (+0.09%), while the NYSE FANG+ index was just on the other side of unchanged, falling -0.02%. In contrast, the small-cap Russell 2000 experienced a sharp -1.72% decline.

Furthermore, it’s worth noting that the recent recovery among big tech stocks has come in spite of the fact that bond yields have remained at elevated levels by recent standards, with the NASDAQ now up +6.75% since its recent low on the Monday of last week. Is stimulus money already going into retail favourites? One such favourite Tesla (-4.39%) was down on the day though and it must be significant that VW’s preferred shares (those in the DAX index) rose +6.71% (+9.3% at the intra-day peak) on the company’s plans of how they can beat Tesla to be the world’s leader in electric vehicles. The preferred shares are up +38.4% in 2021 and the company does seem to have attracted the retail bid as well, especially VW’s common shares which have a far lower float. That class of shares rose +25.7% at its highs yesterday before settling +13.32% higher. For the record Tesla and VW’s market caps are $649.7bn and $149.7bn respectively.

Over in bonds, those on 10yr US Treasuries closed up +1.4bps yesterday as the focus moved to today’s Federal Reserve meeting. But the bigger story was yet another rise in inflation expectations, which continued to move to fresh multi-year highs. The moves were evident across the curve, with both 2yr and 5yr US breakevens at their highest levels since 2008 yesterday, at 2.744% and 2.652% respectively, while 10yr breakevens were up +2.93bps to 2.304%, which hasn’t been seen since 2013. Interestingly, this shift wasn’t confined to the US either, with Euro Area 5y5y forward inflation swaps closing above 1.51% for the first time since March 2019, while 1yr German and Italian breakevens both rose to their highest levels since 2018 as well. So a sign that markets are increasingly pricing in a potential shift to a higher-inflation regime beyond just the next year or two.

Asian markets are trading weaker overnight with the Nikkei (-0.21%), Hang Seng (-0.34%), Shanghai Comp (-0.48%) and Kospi (-0.99% ) all down. Futures on the S&P 500 (-0.09%) are also trading slightly lower and the European ones are pointing to a weaker open. Yields on 10y USTs are trading broadly flat.

In other news, Samsung warned overnight that it’s grappling with the fallout from a “serious imbalance” in semiconductors globally with its co-CEO Koh Dong-jin saying that he expects the crunch to pose a problem to its business next quarter. This also indicated that chip shortages are now spreading beyond the auto making industry. Elsewhere, Huawei has said that it will begin charging mobile giants like Apple and Samsung, a “reasonable” fee for access to its portfolio of wireless 5G patents. Huawei has the largest such portfolio.

Turning to the pandemic, yesterday saw the head of the European Medicines Agency reaffirm the organisation’s message that the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine outweigh the potential for side effects, even with the moves from major European countries to suspend its usage while the EMA comes to its conclusions. Furthermore, she said that there wasn’t any indication that it was the vaccine that had caused the blood clot incidents, which were no higher than in the general population. We should get the full conclusions of the EMA’s review tomorrow following an extraordinary meeting, but given the different statements since the start of the week, it would be a big surprise if they didn’t indicate their approval. Furthermore, the UK has already vaccinated over 11m people with the AZ vaccine without reports of any issues, and is continuing its programme unaffected. Italian Prime Minister Draghi and French President Macron announced that they are both ready to allow use of the AZ vaccine immediately following advisement from the EMA.

European assets proved unfazed by the vaccine developments, and the STOXX 600 was up +0.88% yesterday to a fresh post-pandemic high, as the STOXX 600 travel and leisure index rose +0.80% to another record high. Core sovereign bonds saw little movement, with yields on 10yr bunds falling just -0.2bps and 10yr gilts down -1.2bps. However southern European debt underperformed, with yields on 10yr Italian (+2.7bps) and Greek (+4.2bps) debt both rising.

Looking at yesterday’s data, US retail sales in February fell by a stronger-than-expected -3.0% (vs. -0.5% expected), but given that the January reading was revised up to +7.6% (vs. +5.3% previously), the overall picture from the release was better than the headline number suggested. The industrial production numbers for February also saw a surprise fall of -2.2% (vs. +0.3% expected), but most of that decline could be explained by the severe winter weather last month.

To the day ahead now, and the highlight is likely to be the aforementioned FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. In addition, the ECB’s Elderson will be speaking. Separately, data releases include US housing starts and building permits for February, as well as EU new car registrations for the same month.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.18 PTS OR .03%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 6.43 PTS OR .02%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 6.76 POINTS OR 0.02%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.44%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed /Oil DOWN TO 64.33 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.65 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5046. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5085 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

North Korea

USA intelligence on alert as Rocket Man and his sister are poised for their first weapons test of the Biden eera

(zerohedge)

US Intelligence “On Alert” As North Korea Poised For First Weapons Test Of Biden Era

TUESDAY, MAR 16, 2021 – 07:05 PM

At a sensitive moment that both US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin are traveling in Asia where they are discussing both China and North Korea policies with allied leaders in Tokyo and Seoul on Tuesday and Wednesday, CNN has cited US intelligence officials who say Pyongyang is likely preparing to conduct its first weapons test since Biden entered the White House.

CNN’s Barabara Starr reports that American intelligence agencies “are on alert as the US and South Korea conduct scaled-down, simulated military exercises” and further that “North Korea might decide whether to go through with a test after seeing what comes out of Blinken and Austin’s meetings in Asia.”

The White House is reported to be mulling a response should North Korea actually go through with a test.

Also on Tuesday, as CNN details, a top US general who heads up US Northern Command (which overseas defense of the continental United States), Gen. Glen Van Herck, issued the following warning:

“The Kim Jong Un regime has achieved alarming success in its quest to demonstrate the capability to threaten the U.S. homeland with nuclear-armed ICBMs, believing such weapons are necessary to deter US military action and ensure his regime’s survival.”

Meanwhile, on the same day the powerful sister of Kim Jong Un, Kim Yo Jong, warned the United States it must “refrain from causing a stink” if it desires to “sleep in peace” over the next four years.

“We take this opportunity to warn the new U.S. administration trying hard to give off gun powder smell in our land,” she said. “If it wants to sleep in peace for coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink at its first step,” she added. It marked the first time the ‘rogue regime’ directly addressed the new Biden administration.

However, one prominent regional affairs expert, Tom Fowdy, called attention to the timing of all this sudden bluster out of Pyongyang, noting that “North Korea are masters at getting America’s attention and forcing themselves on the agenda. By making a series of threats now, Pyongyang are unintendedly distracting the US from the anti-China dynamic of Blinken’s visits too.”

“North Korea plays what is essentially a small hand, to the absolute best of their ability every time. The two countries’ situations are very different, but it has to be said they are far more tactful, strategic, prudent and outright Machiavellian negotiators than China,” he added.

end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

Very ironic!!  It is China that is voicing its disproval of $1.9 billion stimulus. Generally it has been China that has provided the stimulus and it has exported its deflation.  Now the reverse will happen where it will be China that would be flooded with dollars and those dollars must find a home.  If China does not let Chinese citizens buy stuff overseas, then their local economy will witness massive inflation

(zerohedge)

a must read….

Furious China Moves To Counter “Turmoil In Financial Markets” Caused By “Massive” Biden Stimulus

TUESDAY, MAR 16, 2021 – 05:45 PM

For all of the past decade, it was the US that was fiscally constrained and China had to serve as the world’s debt-fueled growth dynamo (it’s also why we said that China’s credit impulse had a far greater impact on the global economy and assets prices than even the Fed’s QE whose size and scope is tiny in comparison to the trillions in new loans created by China every year). Well, welcome to upside down 2021 when the script has been flipped, and with China jawboning its desire to slowdown its massive credit injection machine (and even, gasp, deleverage from its nosebleed debt levels, a consequence of its post-Covid response) it is now the US – and Biden’s gargantuan fiscal stimulus – that Beijing is freaking out about (as we noted recently in “Up Until Now It’s Been All China: Now It’s Going To Be All The US“)

As the SCMP reports, “China’s central bank is stepping up liquidity support for domestic businesses and increasing its monitoring of cross-border capital flows as concerns persist over the side effects of Washington’s massive new fiscal stimulus plan.”

Translation: there is too much hot money that is rushing into China, and the last thing Beijing – traditionally an exporters of its own deflation – wants, is to import US deflation courtesy of a one-way dollar flood, sparking runaway inflation on the mainland.

The moves by the People’s Bank of China come amid a growing divergence in the recent economic policy responses by the United States and China, with Washington boosting stimulus significantly while Beijing starts to taper off its economic-support policies enacted last year in response to the coronavirus pandemic. As the reports goes on to note, “Beijing officials and policy advisers have been highly critical of US President Joe Biden’s newly signed US$1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, warning that it could cause massive capital flows and imported inflation that could exacerbate domestic financial risks from already high debt levels.

“The [US Treasury bond] yield hike driven by inflation expectations will lead to a revaluation of asset prices, or even turmoil in financial markets. Domestic markets are unlikely to remain unresponsive,” Zhang Xiaohui, former assistant governor of the central bank, said on Thursday. What he actually said is that Chinese domestic markets will respond to rising rates, and should rates spike even more, Chinese assets face a world of pain.

For proof look no further than China’s A-share stock market, which is undergoing a correction after 10-year US Treasury notes spiked last week to a 13-month high of more than 1.6 per cent.

And it’s only going to get worse as instead of exporting deflation, China imports more of it (i.e., resulting in inflation): “Although [China’s] consumer inflation is relatively controllable, we see an obvious rise in [domestic] asset prices,” Zhang said during a lecture hosted by the Shanghai Pushan Foundation.

Liquidity management is believed to be the first priority, given the prospect of rising market volatility. “The market is very concerned about a turning point in liquidity, as the whole world has entered uncharted monetary and financial territory after the pandemic,” Zhang said.

The sharp rise in US Treasury bond yields in the past month has been largely due to market concerns that rising inflation will prompt the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than the end-of-2023 time frame that policymakers projected in December. The US central bank meets today and tomorrow, and market players will be watching closely for any clues about policymakers’ expectations for interest rates. For now, the Fed is keeping rates near zero while continuing to buy at least $1200 billion per month in US Treasury and MBS securities to pump liquidity into the market.

While China did not engage in strict quantitative easing during the coronavirus crisis, it did pump 9 trillion yuan (US$1.38 trillion) worth of liquidity into the interbank market last year to help the coronavirus-hit economy. The reason for China’s temporary intervention is that China’s economy was already woefully overlevered entering into 2020 before the covid crisis hit. Since then, China’s debt has exploded even more, rising to 335% of GDP in late 2020.

Beijing is proceeding cautiously, seeking to reassure the public that leaders will continue to support the economy while trimming stimulus and refocusing on controlling financial risks. Amid this policy tension, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday rolled over 100 billion yuan (US$15.36 billion) worth of its one-year, medium-term lending facility loans and sold a further 10 billion yuan worth of seven-day reverse purchase agreements to “ensure reasonably ample interbank liquidity”.

While China’s economy is already widely anticipated to grow rapidly this year, with GDP expected to print around 8% in 2021, the withdrawal of monetary stimulus is always a painful process, as shown by the spike in interbank interest rates ahead of the Lunar New Year period in early February after the PBOC drained more liquidity than expected from the market ahead of strong demand for money during the holiday. The PBOC later added additional liquidity to soothe the market’s frayed nerves.

“Considering the overall domestic and overseas financial situation, there’s no reason [for China] to tighten its monetary policy in the short term,” Song Songcheng, former head of the PBOC’s statistics department, said at a recent meeting of the China Wealth Management 50 Forum. “It does no good to economic stabilization and risk prevention.”

Then again, if the Fed continues to inject $120BN in liquidity every month, with that money rushing to enter China, Beijing will have no choice but to tighten as a result of soaring prices.

To offset massive capital inflows into domestic financial markets hunting for higher returns, the government is considering allowing Chinese citizens to invest overseas, including by allowing mainland investors to buy Hong Kong-listed bonds through a new “southbound” mainland-Hong Kong Bond Connect channel that would mirror the current northbound route that allows foreigners to invest in Chinese bonds. On Friday, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) also began a pilot program that allows multinational companies in Shenzhen and Beijing to make easier cross-border fund transfers. It would be ironic – if not surprising – if the Biden stimulus, meant to restore equality between US citizens, unleashes a new wave of Chinese buying of US real estate, making US housing once again extremely unaffordable to Americans.

In any case, SAFE officials continued to stress the need to conduct risk evaluations and inspections to “effectively prevent the risk of cross-border capital flows”. Calls for a continuation of supportive monetary policy grew louder during the meetings of the National People’s Congress that concluded last week, especially after the Ministry of Finance – which cut taxes by 2.3 trillion yuan in 2019 and another 2.6 trillion yuan last year to support the economy – was ordered to cut its budget support to reduce “fiscal risks”.

The top legislature lowered the fiscal deficit ratio to 3.2% from last year’s 3.6% and reduced the limit for local government special-purpose bond issuance by 100 billion yuan from last year.

“As seen from price and labour market indicators, we are still some distance from [economic] normalisation. We worry that policy adjustments are coming too early,” Zhang Bin, deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said at the Pushan lecture. “We should set aside room in monetary policy to let the private sector play a bigger role in boosting the economy. There’s no need to normalize it so early.”

As for China’s anger with Biden’s “hot” fiscal and monetary policies, it better get used to them because they will be here for a long, long time. And once they are put on hold and the US economy – now entirely reliant on government transfer payments – craters, the US will only double down sparking a historic inflationary inferno in China.

end
Email from Robert H to us:

NEW) Things China Doesn’t Want You To Know on Twitter: “The worst sandstorm in decades is sweeping across northern China. The number of particles in the air in Beijing is more than 150 times higher than what is considered safe. This video is from Inner Mongolia, which looks much worse than Beijing right now. March 15-16, 2021 https://t.co/aXhhRdVzfW” / Twitter

The other day, I wrote about how the change in attitude in China to adopt tyranny will give the west time to rebuild, should it figure things out will be further helped by the natural disasters China is encountering. From floods to Army worms devastating crop yields to pollution China has a distinct inability to feed its’ population.
Under Trump America rebuild its’ wheat stores and now is quickly under Biden shipping wheat to China leaving America weakened in food stores.
Looking at China as a investment may prove a poor choice as natural weather changes occurring due to climate change caused by a solar minimum. This in turn will affect much more areas than people imagine. Especially if current food stability being relied on is altered as a result. Countries who need to import food stores use hard currency which detracts form their ability to spend internally on building a sustainable economy. The same is true for energy. Being self sufficient in energy production with a surplus export ability is far better than being a importer and contributes to economic well being.

https://twitter.com/kshadyacct4/status/1371579995718615046?prefetchtimestamp=1615920560267

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY//DEUTSCHE BANK/GREENSILL

Deutsche bank and Commerzbank bank are on  the hook for deposit insurance due to the failure of Greensill and its German subsidiary Bremen based Greensill bank.

(zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank On The Hook For 500M Euros In Greensill Collapse

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 02:45 AM

Just months after Germany’s financial regulator was exposed for being asleep at the wheel during the Wirecard scandal, both Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are reportedly about to be on the hook for millions of euros of losses tied to Europe’s latest financial disaster, the collapse of Greensill Capital, and its Bremen, Germany-based banking arm, Greensill Bank.

Germany’s regulator, BaFin, which was slammed for dropping the ball on Wirecard (at one point, the regulator accused a reporter for the FT of conspiring with short-sellers to discredit Wirecard; in the end, the paper was vindicated), warned Tuesday that a handful of German banks that backed Greensill will examine depositors claims and pay out anything that might be owed under a national deposit-insurance scheme. A German court in Bremen opened insolvency proceedings into Greensill earlier on Tuesday at the agency’s request.

The Bremen Local Court appointed Michael Frege as the insolvency administrator. Frege, an attorney at law firm CMS, is one of Germany’s best known administrators, having gained notoriety from handling the insolvency of a Lehman Brothers unit and the dissolution of Maple Bank in 2016.

While dozens of German municipalities are at risk at losing some or all of the money they have deposited with Greensill, DB and Commerzbank will be left holding the bag because they’re two of the biggest members of a voluntary deposit-insurance scheme run collectively by Germany’s commercial banks.

Although it’s too early to say how much they might owe, a payout from the fund would force the surviving members of the scheme to cough up more cash.

One German media outlet, Manager Magazin, reported that Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank will each have to contribute €200MM to €300MM to cover deposits at the collapsed bank, sums that encapsulate their share of the damages from the deposit insurance scheme. Neither bank was willing to comment about their prospective liabilities.

Bremen-based Greensill Bank had about €3 billion of insured deposits and an additional €500MM euros which aren’t covered, the latter include funds placed in the bank by German municipalities, which, as we have reported, expect to be wiped out.

END

EU/VACCINE UPDATE

We knew that this was coming: a “vaccine passport” to be issued to save European tourism. Please do not take the the Astra Zeneca vaccine as it has too many problems associated with it.  The same can be said for the Pfizer one and Moderna.

(zerohedge)

Brussels Prepares To Introduce “Vaccine Passports” To Save European Tourism Industry

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 05:45 AM

For nearly a year now, we’ve been monitoring the shift toward enabling digital “passports” that will allow at least some people – those wealthy and/or fortunate enough to get their hands on the vaccine – to continue traveling and going about their lives as normal, while others are forced to continue living with COVID-inspired restrictions, potentially for years.

According to a draft plan leaked to the FT, Brussels has proposed the creation of a COVID certificate to allow EU citizens who have been vaccinated, who have recently tested negative, or who can provide proof of recovery to move around the bloc more or less freely. Member states have been battling over whether a digital vaccine “passport” is appropriate, with countries like France arguing that a passport would discriminate against the poor.

Meanwhile, states like Greece and Spain, which are desperate to revive their faltering tourism industries, are arguing that the passports are essential for the economic salvation of millions of Europeans.

Notably, officials in Brussels are wary of using the term “passport”. But at this point, the march toward their adoption seems inevitable.

Brussels officials have stressed the certificate would not be a “passport” but a common system to help governments co-ordinate travel measures as vaccination programmes are rolled out across the bloc.

Additionally, there’s been some debate about which jabs should be approved. They’re leaning toward allowing states to set their own rules in a way that prevents any state from being forced to admit people who received an “unauthorized” vaccine.

Governments have also been divided over which vaccines should be eligible after countries such as Hungary have allowed the use of Russian and Chinese jabs before they have been formally approved by EU regulators.

The commission’s draft text says all vaccines approved by the European Medicines Agency should be automatically recognised by other member states under the certificate. But governments would also have the power to recognise jabs such as Russia’s Sputnik vaccine as valid if they so wished.

It means countries that rely on tourism would not be prohibited from allowing in EU travellers who had received as yet unauthorised vaccines. But at the same time an EU official said: “No member states will be forced to recognise non-authorised vaccines.”

Member states would also be allowed to strike their own travel pacts with other non-EU nations.

EU governments would also be able to strike bilateral travel agreements with non-EU countries as long as they were approved by the commission beforehand, said the document.  The tourism industry has been lobbying European governments to introduce common standards for travel amid concerns that the current system of country-by-country rules is confusing and putting people off booking.

Airlines have been pioneering these types of digital systems as they require customers to be tested and prove their COVID status, which is fortunate, since Brussels will likely need that proof of concept to develop its own program. With the AstraZeneca vaccine creating more delays for the EU’s vaccination campaign, the bloc likely won’t be anywhere near herd immunity by the end of the year.

end

EU

Mutated strains are increasing in the EU and lesser in the UK despite inoculations. I suspect what Mike Whitney states: that the vaccinated are expelling COVID which makes un vaccinated receiving a more virulent strain.

(zerohedge)

EU Threatens To Halt UK Vaccine Exports As COVID “Third Wave” Intensifies

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 11:05 AM

As Europe’s vaccine rollout lags, COVID cases are exploding in Europe right now, prompting several member-state leaders to warn of an imminent “third wave” of the virus. As Nate Silver pointed out on twitter earlier, the EU and UK had similar rates of COVID cases per capita a month ago, while the US rate was about 30% higher. Now, the EU (slow vaccine rollout) has about 2x as many cases per capita as the US and 3-4x more cases than the UK.

On Tuesday, the EU added more newly confirmed COVID cases than the US and the UK combined, with 303.6 cases per million people in the EU, vs 165.4 and 84.9 in the US and UK. The number of new cases is growing as worries about mutated COVID strains amplify concerns about the EU’s slothful pace of vaccinations.

COVID deaths in the EU have topped 550K this week while fewer than 1/10th of the blocs adults have been vaccinated.

Now that some two dozen countries have halted the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID jab, experts are worried that the pace of vaccinations will slow further as more Europeans decline to receive the shot. As Bill Blain wrote earlier, the EU’s vaccine rollout is “in tatters”, and the AstraZeneca controversy is only making the situation worse. The EMA, Brussels’ equivalent to the FDA, has launched a hasty safety review of the vaccine while reiterating that any risks posed by the vaccine are far outweighed by the benefits. Now, the WHO is reiterating that line, as officials appear to finally be coming to terms with the fact that they have no credibility to claim that the vaccine is perfectly safe. After all, the accelerated testing period makes it virtually impossible to address any more-rare risks posed to patients with various medical conditions.

But member state from Italy to Austria have reported cases of rare blood clots forming in patients with low blood-platlet counts. In one instance, a man died after receiving the vaccine. And while there’s no evidence of a direct link, the Italian prosecutors have launched a manslaughter investigation.

As the bloc’s vaccination rate continues to drag…

…Brussels’ bureaucratic leaders are sticking it to the WHO (which has issued myriad statements decrying so-called “vaccine nationalism”) as EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen threatens to withhold more vaccine exports from the UK as a spat over the terms of the Brexit split intensifies, and the UK’s vaccination numbers far outpace numbers from the Continent.

Per Bloomberg, with the EU struggling to accelerate vaccinations, von der Leyen says the bloc will consider blocking supplies to countries that aren’t reciprocating, or which already have high vaccination rates, with the UK singled-out as the No. 1 importer of shots from the EU.

“We have observed that in the last six weeks, 10 million doses have been exported to the UK,” von der Leyen told reporters in Brussels. “The UK is producing AstraZeneca. In our contract with AstraZeneca there are two sites in the UK that are put in the contract for potential deliveries to the EU.”

Von der Leyen also reiterated warnings about a third wave that have been repeated by many bloc leaders and health officials.

“We are in the crisis of the century,” she said. “We see the crest of a third wave forming in member states, and we know that we need to accelerate the vaccination rates.”

Confirming just how critical the AstraZeneca jab is to the EU’s vaccination vision, the EU has blamed members states’ sluggish rollout on AstraZeneca’s failure to meet its delivery commitments, and fumed that 10M jabs produced in Europe have already been exported to Britain. Some critics have noted the hint of jealousy in Brussels’ criticisms of the UK rollout.

“If this situation does not change, we will have to reflect on how to make exports to vaccine-producing countries dependent on their level of openness. We will reflect on whether exports to countries with higher vaccination rates than us are still proportionate.”

Von der Leyen urged EU leaders to consider additional measures to bolster the bloc’s vaccine supplies when they meet next week, including potentially using emergency legal powers to effectively seize control of production and distribution.

“All options are on the table. We are in the crisis of the century. I am not ruling out anything for now because we have to make sure that Europeans are vaccinated as soon as possible,” she said, when asked whether the EU should invoke Article 122 of the EU treaty. The clause allows the introduction of emergency measures when “severe difficulties arise in the supply of certain products.”

European Council President Charles Michel has raised the prospect of invoking Article 122 as a way to get the vaccinations back on track. That would allow Brussels to offer more financial assistance to member states, and take other emergency measures.

“Vaccine production and vaccine deliveries in the EU must have a priority and I also want to discuss this whole picture with the heads of state and government,” von der Leyen said.

While threatening to withhold vaccines produced by AstraZeneca and others from the UK, EU officials have also been slamming the leaders of some of the bloc’s biggest member states (Germany, Italy and France) who have insisted that, while they’re “ready” to resume vaccinations with the AstraZeneca jab, they will wait until after a safety review set for Thursday.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia vs USA/Syria

Russia reveals that it has lost 112 soldiers with its entry into the Syrian war.  Chairman of the Defence Committee of State Duma, Russia blasts the “morally bankrupt USA policies.

(AlMasdairNews)

Russia Reveals Total Number Of Soldiers Killed In Syria, Blasts “Morally Bankrupt” US Policies

TUESDAY, MAR 16, 2021 – 10:45 PM

Via AlMasdarNews.com,

The First Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma, Andrei Krasov, announced that 112 Russian soldiers were killed during the entirety of the armed conflict in Syria, according to Sputnik Arabic.

The deputy’s statements came during a meeting with the State Duma Committee for Health Affairs, during which he said:

“According to recent military data provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense, about 112 soldiers have been killed in Syria since the beginning of the armed conflict.”

AFP via Getty Images

This figure is far lower than the over 260 Russian armed forces deaths put forth by non-state monitoring groups like the anti-Assad Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

The Russian military officially entered the war in Syira on September 30, 2015 and have since established a number of bases across the country, including its main installation at the Hmemim Airport in Latakia.

Among the most prominent field achievements made by the Syrian forces, with the support of Russia, was the lifting of the three-year-long siege on the city of Deir Ezzor, which was imposed on the administrative capital by the Islamic State (ISIS/Daesh).

Furthermore, the Syrian Arab Army was able to retake a large amount of territory in the central part of the country that was occupied by the Islamic State since 2015; this included the ancient city of Palmyra (Tadmur) and the strategic Al-Sha’er Gas Fields. While the Syrian conflict has witnessed a significant decrease in violence since 2015, clashes are still ongoing in the central part of the country, where the Islamic State has reemerged.

“We need to make the Russians pay a price in Syria…” the former Deputy Director of the CIA said in a 2016 interview.

Meanwhile a top Russian diplomat blasted the US continuing ‘dirty war’ on Syria on Tuesday.

Russian Ambassador to the UK Andrei Kelin attacked the “morally bankrupt and unacceptable” US and UK sanctions meant to choke Damascus into submission.

“Development in Syria is being hindered not only by the consequences of conflict and COVID pandemic, but also by the illegal unilateral sanctions imposed on Syria by the US, the UK and some of their allies,” Amb. Kelin said.

“These restrictive measures not only put obstacles to the economic recovery, but also prevent essential purchases of pharmaceuticals, medical and construction equipment. This is morally corrupt and unacceptable.”

end

RUSSIA VS USA

Biden states that Putin is a “killer” and Russia will pay the price for their “interference”

(zerohedge)

Biden Says Putin A “Killer”, “Doesn’t Have A Soul” After US Intel Assesses ‘Interference’

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 09:05 AM

After a much anticipated and hyped federal investigation and intelligence report into ‘Russia-linked cyber attacks’ found (gasp… or ratherentirely as expected in yet the latest repackaged iteration of long deflated Russiagate) the Kremlin mounted an online ‘interference’ campaign related to the 2020 election, President Biden said in a bombshell ABC News interview that he agrees Vladimir Putin is a “killer” and that he’s going to pay a price. CNN reports sanctions are likely coming, specifically targeting “people close to Russia President Vladimir Putin as soon as next week.”

Here’s the key part of the pre-recorded interview with George Stephanopoulos which aired early Wednesday:

Asked whether he believes Mr Putin is a “killer” in a pre-taped interview that aired on Wednesday, the president responded: “I do.”

“The price he’s going to pay, you’ll see shortly,” he said.

Mr Biden recalled meeting Mr Putin, during which he reportedly told him that he “doesn’t have a soul”: “I wasn’t being a wise guy.”

“He looked back at me and said, ‘We understand each other’,” Mr Biden said.

“I know him relatively well,” Biden had introduced the comments with, and added that “the most important thing dealing with foreign leaders in my experience… is just know the other guy.”

This past conversation wherein Biden says he told the Russian president he doesn’t think he has a soul has echoes with the 2001 face-to-face meeting between George W. Bush and Putin.

Bush came to the opposite conclusion at the time: “I looked the man in the eye…I was able to get a sense of his soul,” according to that famous and widely mocked moment of Bush’s soul-gazing…

Biden recounted to Stephanopoulos that during the “long talk” with the Russian leader, he informed his Russian president, “I know you and you know me. If I establish this occurred, then be prepared” — speaking of the cyberattack and election meddling allegations.

“He will pay a price,” Biden said. “We had a long talk, he and I, when we — I know him relatively well. And the conversation started off, I said, ‘I know you and you know me. If I establish thisoccurred, then be prepared.”

Stephanopoulos asked: “So you know Vladimir Putin. You think he’s a killer?”

“Mmm hmm, I do,” Biden replied.

While the president said “you’ll see” that Putin is “going to pay,” he did not elaborate.

He did say, though, that it was possible to “walk and chew gum at the same time for places where it’s in our mutual interest to to work together.” —ABC News

The 15-page Office of the Director of National Intelligence assessment is being widely reported as concluding that central to the Russian ‘interference’ was an effort to promote “Donald Trump and right-wing conspiracy theories in an attempt to discredit Mr Biden.”

…So that’s what it’s all about, apparently – resurrecting the Russiagate farce and repackaging it in different form after it failed to “stick” despite the years-long obsession of the media and political pundit class.

Meanwhile the Kremlin indicated Wednesday it’s taking “necessary measures” to prepare for any looming new US sanctions expected in the wake of the intelligence report, the conclusions of which it’s vehemently denied. Russian government spokesperson Dmitry Peskov slammed the allegations and “baseless” and ultimately “not backed by any evidence”.

The Russian ruble tumbled on the headline Wednesday…

…sinking down more than 1.5% against the dollar after Biden’s remarks aired, the most significant intraday drop since Feb. 25

END

Email to me on the Ukrainian situation…

(courtesy Robert H)

Who benefits from Ukies used as cannon fodder 🇺🇦

It is remarkable to watch history repeat itself knowing that its’ lessons are not learnt and both  nations and people are pawns in the games of others.

When Victoria Nuland made that infamous quote “fuck the EU” to the American Ambassador to the  Ukraine the goal was evident. Now when you see the British Ambassador make this comment, the die is cast and the puppeteer’s hands are shown.
The Ukraine is at best, a failed state and likely soon will be a orphaned people. As we watch the build up on the  eastern part of Ukraine and on the borders of Crimea. One does  wonder who will benefit from the looming human tragedy that will be set into motion? Yes, Ukies will die in great numbers as Russia is provoked to respond. The notion that Crimea will ever return to the Ukraine is a fable. It is forgotten that Russia gave the Crimea to the Ukrainians because of a bid for goodwill in Soviet times as it was Russian soil from the time they won it in a war with Turkey. To think that Russia would now give it back so THAT NATO could further encroach on Russian territory is less than humorous.
But who will benefit ? The biggest loser in such a conflict will be Europe and the EU. Britain has its’ own problems with a scolding hand of the  EU in its’ Brexit and aftermath. This conflict will impair the ability of the EUROPEAN Union to tackle Britain while it is forced to take actions on its’ eastern border under NATO influence. It matters not whether more arms and military spending results; it comes to benefit both the US and Britain. And the result is a weakened EU.
There is no question about the ability of Russia to stop the advance of any incursions of the Ukies without leaving its’ soil. And any attempt to mount an attack in the Black Sea will result in a total loss of equipment and manpower. But, might the  gas pipe to Germany be delayed again or cancelled, or might the gas running through the Ukraine be impaired leaving the EU more vulnerable both to lessened economic activity or weather? What ever happens the  EU will become weaker resulting from such a confrontation and be the largest loser. And Russia will turn further away from Western Europe as will China.
And this will impact EU plans for a digital currency and its’ own stability midst changing global economies and patterns of trade.


Melinda Simmons on Twitter: “7 років тому Росія провела фіктивний “референдум”, намагаючись узаконити свій незаконний контроль над Кримом. Британія ніколи не визнає цієї кричущої неповаги до українських і міжнародних норм. Наше послання залишається чітким: Росія має повернути Крим Україні #КримЦеУкраїна 🇺🇦” / Twitter

end

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS  UPDATE/VACCINE:

Actually the sputnik vaccine is quite safe.  The USA admits to waging an infowar against their vaccine.

(zerohedge)

US Admits Waging InfoWar Against Russia’s Sputnik Vaccine To “Combat Malign Influence”

TUESDAY, MAR 16, 2021 – 11:45 PM

The Kremlin on Tuesday called out what’s it’s dubbed the “unprecedented” propaganda war against Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine. The words were issued by spokesman Dmitry Peskov in response to widespread allegations that the Untied States is actively trying to dissuade its allies from purchasing the Russian-produced vaccine. This despite the emerging scientific consensus that’s found it to be at least 91% effective while further preventing inoculated persons from becoming severely ill.

The Kremlin is responding to newly emerged proof that the US intervened with the largest country in South America, Brazil. The Washington Post details that “Buried deep in the dry, 72-page annual report of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services lay a startling admission: U.S. health officials under President Donald Trump worked to convince Brazil to reject Russia’s Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine.”

Brazil has long stood as the second highest COVID-19 infected country in the world behind the US, with over 11.5 confirmed infections so far (with the US now approaching the 30 million mark).

Here’s the key controversial section from the 71-page document. The section is entitled “Combatting malignant influence in the Americas”

“Examples include using OGA’s Health Attache office to persuade Brazil to reject the Russian COVID-19 vaccine,” the government report spelled out explicitly.

Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has since claimed it never received directives or “consultations” such as are described in the report from the US, with a statement saying, “the Embassy of Brazil in Washington has not received consultations or actions from United States authorities or companies regarding the possible purchase, by Brazil, of the Russian vaccine against Covid-19.”

Kremlin spokesman Peskov in his comments didn’t name the allegations specifically but only denounced generally that “In many countries the scale of pressure is quite unprecedented… such selfish attempts to force countries to abandon any vaccines have no prospects.”

“We believe that there should be as many doses of vaccines as possible so that all countries, including the poorest, have the opportunity to stop the pandemic,” Peskov added.

Via Reuters

Thus far neither the US Embassy in Moscow nor the US Department of State have responded, according to Reuters.

However, the annual HHS report clearly constitutes a “smoking gun” admission which details that Washington does indeed have a covert policy of blocking the Sputnik V vaccine’s spread. This is ironic given one would think Washington would be more focused on combatting the spread of the pandemic itself, regardless of politics or geopolitical maneuvering.

CANADA
Take a look at the rise in Canadian housing.  It has gone parabolic as inflation is getting a stranglehold in Canada.
(zerohedge)

“It’s Gone Parabolic”: Canadian Housing In One Shocking Chart

TUESDAY, MAR 16, 2021 – 09:05 PM

It probably does not need much commentary, but as BMO Senior Economist Robert Kavcic writes in his morning charts, if it’s not fully apparent to all parties that the Canadian housing market is boiling, this picture might convey the message…”

Kavcic urges readers to note the acceleration: “that is, the 1-month change is faster than 3-month; which is faster than the 6-month; which is faster than the 12-month. In all cases but the 12-month (and that won’t be long either), price growth has accelerated through the rates seen in 2017, when policymakers were working on multiple fronts to tame the market.”

* * *

Curious for more: here are some facts on the state of Canada’s overheating housing market courtesy of BMO:

Canadian Existing Home Sales (Feb.) — The Wild North

Canadian existing home sales rose 6.6% in seasonally-adjusted terms in February, setting yet another record level. From a year ago, sales were up a hefty 39.2%, and the gains are about to look even more gawdy once we see comparisons to March, April and May (recall that the market was locked down last year). We’ve discussed at great length the factors that are driving record demand, but in case you’re new to the scene, here’s a quick refresher:

  • Employment in higher-paying industries recovered swiftly, supporting incomes among potential homebuyers.
  • Mortgage rates plumbed record lows and, while they’re backing up now, they’re still below pre-COVID levels, while many buyers are likely still on pre-approvals with rates locked in.
  • There’s has been a dramatic shift in preferences toward more space, further outside major urban centres (commuting requirements are down, and probably assumed to remain down).
  • Limited travel has created historic demand for second (recreational) properties, and households have equity in existing properties to tap.
  • Younger households are likely pulling forward moves that would have otherwise happened in the years ahead.
  • There has to be some FOMO and speculative activity in the market at this point (which is, unfortunately, tough to show with hard data until after the fact).

On the flip side, there is precious little supply to meet that demand, at least in segments that the market wants. New listings actually jumped 15.8% (seasonally adjusted) in February, but the 11% gain from a year ago still trails well behind sales. More importantly, the standing inventory on the market remains almost non-existent by historical standards. The months’ supply of homes for sale across the country hit a record low of 1.8 in the month (the norm is about 5). Even if we re-set the sales pace to pre-COVID norms, we’d still only have about the half the normal supply on the market. Why? Here’s another quick refresher:

  • Mobility is down, so it stands to reason that listings (i.e., movement) are down, particularly for those in desirable locations to ride out the pandemic.
  • The past 15 years or so have been characterized by intensification, with new condo development running at twice the rate of that for single-detached homes – that’s not what the market wants right now.

This leaves us with a perfect storm for higher home prices outside the major-city condo sector. The MLS benchmark price jumped 17.3% y/y in February, within reaching distance of the 2017 high (when policymakers were working on multiple fronts to cool the market). Annualized growth over the past six months was even stronger at 24%; and month-over-month, price growth in February alone was the strongest on record (dating back to 2000). In other words, parabolic.

Regionally, almost all of the country is participating, with sales up by double-digits or more in all markets outside Quebec (that market is not weak by any means). Meantime, 22 of 26 major markets have seen the average transactions price rise by double-digits, with 20%-to-40% gains common. Markets that entered the pandemic in a position of strength (e.g., Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal) have strengthened further, while markets that were in the doldrums (e.g., Calgary, Edmonton, to a lesser extent Vancouver) have re-emerged. And, the strongest momentum is in what we can loosely call “cottage country”, with average price gains in some locations running around 50% y/y.

In a separate release, Canadian housing starts pulled back to 245,900 annualized units in February, a still-high level following a near-record print in the prior month. Just so we’re clear that this is not a winter wonder, starts on a twelve-month average basis are running at 227k annualized, the strongest such pace since 2008; and over the past six months, starts are averaging 242k, the highest since at least 1990. Both single- and multi-unit starts declined in the month, as did all provinces but British Columbia.

The Bottom Line: It should be fully apparent to all parties that the Canadian housing market is boiling, with strength across most markets, and extreme conditions in some.

END
Michael Every on today’s major topic du jour:  the FOMC announcement//and what to expect
(Michael Every)

Rabo: Will This Look Like The 2013 Taper Tantrum… Or The 1994 Bond Massacre

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 10:44 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Fed-dy Bears’ Picnic

“If you go down in the bonds today; You’re sure of a big surprise

If you go down in the bonds today; You’d better go in disguise!

For every bear that ever there was will gather there for certain

Because today’s the day the Fed-dy Bears have their picnic

Picnic time for Fed-dy Bears; The little Fed-dy Bears are having a lovely time today

Watch them, catch them unawares; And see them picnic on their holiday

See them gaily gad about; They love to play and shout; They never have any cares

At 6 o’clock this trading fad-dy; Will put its books to bed; Because they’re tired little Fed-dy Bears

Every Fed-dy Bear who’s been good is sure of a treat today

There’s lots of marvellous things to tweet and wonderful games to play

Beneath the trees where *everyone* sees; They’ll hide and seek as long as they please

‘Cause that’s the way the Fed-dy Bears have their picnic”

We have a long wait ahead of us for a critical Fed meeting and one has to kill the time as productively as one can: I apologize for nothing. Yes, we can focus on weak US retail sales and industrial production data yesterday, which is bond bullish; we can focus on the risk-off North Korea leader’s sister stating “We take this opportunity to warn the new US administration trying hard to give off gun powder smell in our land” (which was not about flatulence); or the latest suggestion that US officials will bring up Hong Kong and Taiwan when they meet Chinese officials in Alaska tomorrow, which is hardly risk on. You can even mention that Germany seems to have the same negotiating tactic with the US over Nordstream2 as North Korea does with its nukes: just keep building and expect the Americans to eventually live with it.

But the long and the short of it is that it’s all about the Fed, and if they display any sign at all of shifting the dot plot towards rate hikes from as early as 2023. That’s especially true given the possibility this will be a period following not just the USD1.9 trillion stimulus package, but a USD2.0-2.5 trillion infrastructure bill too – in which case one would suppose the underlying pressure for higher rates would be strong…if things still work the way the textbook says they are supposed to re: liquidity > investment > wages > inflation. Which they clearly don’t right now.

One of the big headlines is that following a UK court loss, Uber are reclassifying their 70,000 British drivers as workers rather than self-employed capitalists en route to global transport domination. This entitles them to benefits, which would be a pay rise in kind. Is this the harbinger of labour winning vs. capital? Consider that Uber are claiming this only covers time spent driving, so waiting around for a fare doesn’t count towards pay: does that sound like a strongly-unionised working environment? As the grandson of a cabbie, it sounds like being a taxi-driver. (Uber will potentially have issues with VAT payments due to the government: but that’s another story.)

Back to the Fed. As I’ve already noted recently, it would be odd if they tried to flag inflation concerns given the Treasury are arguing these are “small” and “manageable”: surely they won’t want to show any policy disconnect? As such, and like the RBA just did, the risks appear that most members still won’t flag rate hikes by 2023 despite the recent upturn on overall data, on the US vaccination effort, in commodity prices, and in fiscal stimulus.

In which case, while short end bond yields would of course stay low, the risks are also that long yields react further to all this “running hot”. So, yes, it could be picnic time for Fed-dy bears. Could this look like the 2013 Taper Tantrum, where US 10s jumped 136bp (to 3.06%)? Could it even look like the 1994 Bond Massacre, where US 10s leaped 245bp trough to peak (to 8.05%)? However, before one gets ‘Uber-excited’, the fact that one peak was 8.05% and another was 3.06% shows you just what happened to the US structurally in the two decades in-between. It’s going to take a lot of US infrastructural changes, in many senses of the term, to get us back towards anything close to 2013 US yield levels, let alone 1994.

Nonetheless, in the meantime the rest of the world has followed that general yield collapse and new-normal path, and hence even a moderate move higher in yields could be painful – and not just to bonds. Yes, there are US stocks to worry about. But also note the headline ‘China braces for “turmoil in financial markets” following new US stimulus’. Of course, it’s not the only one. Key EM are now having to actively think about raising rates despite still being in the throes of the Covid epidemic. The higher US bond yields go, the more capital could flow back to the US and USD. That’s one form of turmoil – and very 2013.

Yet even if the Fed does not provide a picnic for bond bears today, via some form of curve action to match the dot plot, we still get turmoil anyway. How well are EM (and DM) set up for a much weaker USD (and yet higher commodity prices), for example?

It was to be expected, if deeply ironic, that Chinese officials oppose a US fiscal deficit of over 15% of GDP; the promise of massive infrastructure spending; all backed by a pliant central bank; with aims of social stability; and suggestions of protectionism to lock this liquidity in; and hopes the currency moves lower. Takes one to know one? But rather than accept the expected flood of hot capital inflows –pushing up CNY, blowing bubbles, and seeing jobs exported along with manufacturing– suggestions are they will encourage more capital to flow straight back out again. In which case, it’s more of a Fed-dy bulls picnic globally. But somebody is going to end up with an over-valued currency, hitting exports, and assets, hitting financial stability.

There are many other ways this can play out too, depending in large part on how the US reacts – but all of them suggest the risk of significant market and geopolitical volatility, to which today could well be a key milestone.

But that’s enough for now. I am a tired little Fed-dy bear, and today will likely be no picnic.

7. OIL ISSUES

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1895 DOWN .0007 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.22 UP 0.186 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3890  DOWN   0.0013  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2473 UP .0030 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 7 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1895 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 1.18 PTS OR .03% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 6.43 PTS OR .02% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,44%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 6.43 PTS OR .02% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.18 PTS OR .03% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.44% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 6.76  POINTS OR 0.02%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1928.40

silver:$25.83-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.670% !!! UP 5 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.4180 UP 5  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 91.98 UP 12 CENT(S) from  TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.26% UP 6 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.09.%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.38%//UP 6 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.70 UP 8 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 32 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.29% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 0.99% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1905  UP     .0003 or 3 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.25 UP .221 OR YEN DOWN 22  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3877 DOWN .0015 POUND DOWN 15  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 39 basis points to 1.2481

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan ,CNY: closed DOWN AT 6.5041    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.5085  (YUAN DOWN)..

TURKISH LIRA:  7.58  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.09%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.682 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.443 UP 6 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 91.96 UP 10  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 31.36  0.46%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 22.80 POINTS OR .16%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 2.99 POINTS 0.05%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 47.30 POINTS or 0.55%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 3.07 POINTS OR 0.06%

WTI Oil price; 64.01 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 67.70 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    73.97  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 1.19 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 119 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO -.29 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  64.64//

BRENT :  67.92

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.644..up 3 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.431 up 5 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1979 ( UP 79   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.68 DOWN .161 (YEN UP 16 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 91.41 DOWN 46 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3966 UP 64  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 7.49

the Russian rouble 73.64   DOWN 0.85 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 85 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2407 UP 35 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.29%

The Dow closed UP 189.42 POINTS OR 0.58%

NASDAQ closed UP 50.10 POINTS OR 0.38%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.22 CLOSED DOWN .57

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.190%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Powell Pumps Bitcoin, Bonds, & Big-Tech; Crashes Dollar

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 04:00 PM

While The Fed gushed over just how dovish it was today, willing to do absolutely nothing despite forecasting significant economic growth, inflation, and employment gains (with median rate expectations remaining at lows), there was a hawkish tilt across members who see multiple rate hikes in 2022 and 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

But hopeful comments about SLR helped remove some overhangs, sending stocks and bonds soaring as the dollar dumped.

Treasuries erased the day’s early weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

ED Futs retraced a little of their hawkish tilt in 2022 (but not much)…

Source: Bloomberg

But the dollar gave the loudest signal of what the world thinks of The Fed’s total lack of control…

Source: Bloomberg

Which makes you wonder…

As Bitcoin exploded higher…

Source: Bloomberg

US Equities all ended higher on the day (bucking the average 0.15% drop on Powell’s Fed days) as Nasdaq retraced losses from early as rising rates triggered more selling

5Y Yields outperformed on the dovish statement…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields tumbled on the Fed, ended unch…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve steepened dramatically (5s30s back near its steepest since Aug 2014)

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities all rallied as the dollar tumbled but crude ended the day lower (surprise crude build)

Source: Bloomberg

Silver surged up to key resistance…

Growth was panic-bid on the Fed statement…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that amid all the short-term excitement, traders are pricing in some serious disinflation (the 5Y-10Y Breakeven spread is at record negative levels) after a potential short-term burst…

Source: Bloomberg

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//FOMC

No change in rates, no change in anything before 2023/no change in SLR policy

(zerohedge)

FOMC Statement Confirms Nothing Will Change On Rates, Policy Through 2023

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 02:09 PM

Today’s market chaos is brought to you by the word “SLR” and the number “2023” – whether The Fed will mention its thoughts on the now-politicized Supplemental Liquidty Ratio exemption decision (which will spark turbulence in bank stocks and Treasuries); and whether the Fed’s forward-looking dot-plot of rate expectations is adjusted hawkishly for 2023 (if no adjustment, stonks will soar).

Going into the event, there was no fear.

Since the last FOMC Statement, Jan 27th, Bitcoin has doubled, stocks have soared, along with bond yields (prices plunged) and as the dollar gained, gold tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

Inflation expectations have exploded…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, Financial Conditions have been volatile but are easier now than at the last FOMC meeting…

Source: Bloomberg

But the short-end of the yield curve has seen a dramatic hawkish shift in the Fed rate-hike trajectory (the expectation has soared 65bps since the last Fed meeting)…

Source: Bloomberg

And the first rate-hike is getting closer…

Source: Bloomberg

*  *  *

So what will The Fed do?

  • Either tell the market it’s wrong and send stocks soaring while losing even more credibility; or…
  • Raise the 2023 median ‘dot’ to 1 hike and spark a “repricing in rates” as JPMorgan warned.

So what happened?

Nothing much is the short-answer.

The Fed is keeping rates and policy actions unchanged and while it adjusted its dot-plots, the median level of rates (zero) was unchanged.

Four Fed members now see at least one rate hike in 2022, up from 1 in Dec 2020.

In December, five of the then-17 members saw a rate hike in 2023. The committee now has 18 members and 7 of them now see at least one rate hike by 2023 (two see as much as 4 rate hikes, three see 3 hikes, 1 sees 2 hikes, 1 sees 1 hike)

FOMC GDP/unemployment projections go suborbital but…

But, not a mouse is stirring in rates because core CPI barely budged:

  • 2020: 1.8% to 2.2%
  • 2021: 1.9% to 2.0%
  • 2022: 2.0% to 2.1%

As a reminder, here’s what Powell said in his early March comments:

“I would be concerned by disorderly conditions in markets or a persistent tightening in financial conditions that threatens the achievement of our goals.”

Let’s see if he can tame the vol during the press conference.

*  *  *

Full Redline below:

end
MARKET REACTION

Stocks Explode Higher After Powell Says Will Give SLR Update “In Coming Days”

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 02:52 PM

In our initial response to the FOMC statement, we noted that while the Fed was far more dovish than most – and certainly Goldman which reset expectations with its prediction for 1 rate hike in the median 2023 dot – there was no comment on one of the most closely watched topics: the SLR, or the Supplementary Liquidity Ratio which some believe is a critical constraint for banks to retain more treasurys/reserves/deposits ahead of what will be over $1 trillion more in QE.

Specifically, we said “curiously, there was no mention of SLR at all, but considering the flood of dovishness in the Fed’s statement, we can only assume that the Fed will promptly kick the can on that particular issue as well.

Sure enough, Powell did just that when during his press conference the Fed Chair said that the Fed would address the SLR in the coming days:

  • POWELL: WE’LL HAVE SOMETHING TO ANNOUNCE ON SLR IN COMING DAYS

And since it is now painfully obvious that Powell will never again do anything to rock the boat, we are certain that an SLR extension is coming in the coming days, the news of which will unleash another buying spree…

…. an outcome which markets are clearly frontrunning, because Eminis soared in kneejerk response to the Fed’s SLR comment after moving sharply higher earlier…

… the dollar plumbed new lows, with the Bloomberg dollar index sliding to a 2 week low and breaching the 100-DMA…

… but more importantly, the 10Y yield – which had been sticky around 1.66% amid the SLR confusion – slumped, giving risk assets a second wind.

end
The really big story of FOMC:  The Fed is comfortable with slightly negative rates.  Gold should zoom with that.
(zerohedge)

The FOMC Packed A Huge Surprise” – Fed Now Comfortable With “Slightly” Negative Rates

While markets were focused on headline hot takes from today’s FOMC statement, those reading between the lines and focusing on the market plumbing – such as Curvature Securities’ Scott Skyrm – found “a huge surprise”: an increase in the RRP counterparty limit from $30 billion to $80 billion per counterparty.

While at first look, it seems quite benign, Skyrm notes that “this implies the Fed is very comfortable with zero percent rates and maybe even negative rates.”

Let’s rewind a little:

This week, Repo GC averaged at .01% and few RRP counterparties showed up at the RRP window. Remember, RRP counterparties invest cash at the Fed in exchange for Treasury securities at a rate of 0.0%. If the cash investors can’t get collateral from the Repo market, they go to the Fed. Surprisingly, there was no RRP activity on Monday, and only $702 million on Tuesday. Rates are close to zero and the market isn’t even using the RRP window.

Here’s the implication. As Skyrm explains, “if the Fed wanted overnight rates higher, they would have raised the IOER and/or RRP. Instead, they raised the RRP counterparty limit meaning they are very comfortable with rates here at zero, but don’t want them to drop into the negatives“… although they now seem to be ok with rates dipping occasionally into the red as they have done recently in GC repo…

… and 1 month bills.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/17/2021 – 15:23

end

Goldman was wrong yesterday on their “dots”. Now, in essence, wht they are saying is the Fed  will experience hotter inflation before reacting.  Gold//silver escalate

(zerohedge)

Goldman: We Were Wrong About The Fed

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 03:40 PM

Yesterday, when we looked at Goldman’s forecast for monetary policy over the next few years, one thing stood out: the bank’s expectation that the median 2023 dot would show one rate hike, a hawkish prediction that spread like wildfire across markets and prompted speculation among some, such as JPM, that a shorter liftoff telegraphed by the Fed would spark a “repricing” across the entire rates complex which then obviously would also impact risk assets. It’s also why others – such as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott – said that the fate of that 2023 median dot could lead to a surge – either higher lower – in stocks depending on whether the Fed would go ahead with this tighter signaling.

Well, we now know that the Fed would have none of this, and while a handful of FOMC members did in fact push higher on their 2023 dots, the median remained unchanged.

Which brings us to Goldman’s just published FOMC post-mortem in which the bank admits that it was wrong about the Fed, an error which it attributed to the Fed’s new reaction function which suggests that “several FOMC participants have a higher inflation bar for liftoff than 2.1%.” In other words, the economy will be really overheating when the Fed will a) taper and b) consider hiking rates.

Here is what Hatzius just published:

The FOMC made modest changes to the post-meeting statement and left the funds rate target range unchanged at 0–0.25% at the March meeting. The median projected path for the policy rate in the Summary of Economic Projections continued to show no change over the forecast horizon, against our expectations for one hike in the SEP. The March projections suggest that several FOMC participants have a higher inflation bar for liftoff than 2.1%. We continue to expect tapering to begin in early 2022 and the fed funds rate to remain unchanged until the first half of 2024.

Below are all the main points from Goldman:

1. The FOMC left the funds rate target range unchanged at 0–0.25% and left the policy outlook characterization and asset purchase policy unchanged. The statement’s characterization of the current economic situation continued to emphasize the effect of COVID-19 on economic activity and was updated to acknowledge that the pace of the recovery has “turned up recently” after previously moderating. The Committee also removed the language on oil prices “holding down”inflation and now more plainly states that “inflation continues to run below 2%.” In the implementation note, the FOMC increased the counterparty limit on overnight reverse repurchase agreements from $30bn to $80bn.

2. The median projected path for the policy rate in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) continued to show no change over the forecast horizon, against our expectations for one hike in the SEP. However, FOMC participants expressed divergent views, as six of the seven participants that expected at least one hike by the end of 2023 projected multiple hikes (vs. five previously with one or more hike;we had expected eleven at this meeting). Additionally, four participants showed a hike at the end of 2022 (vs. one previously; we had expected two at this meeting). The median longer run projection for the fed funds rate was unchanged at 2.5%, as expected.

3.Likely reflecting the American Rescue Plan Act and improvement in the public health situation, the GDP projections in the SEP were increased substantially, with the median growth projection for 2021 raised 2.3pp to 6.5% (median growth projections for 2022 and 2023 were little changed: +0.1pp and -0.2pp, respectively).But while the 2021 core inflation median increased sharply (+0.4pp to 2.2%), the median participant did not project much overheating in the medium-term: the 2023unemployment rate median fell only 0.2pp (to 3.5%), the longer-run unemployment rate median was surprisingly revised down (-0.1pp to 4.0%), the 2023 core inflation median rose 0.1pp to 2.1%, and only one participant projected core inflation rising above 2.2% over the forecast horizon.

Finally, in terms of what Goldman’s revised view of the Fed’s reaction function now means, Hatzius writes that “the March projections suggest that several FOMC participants have a higher inflation bar for liftoff than 2.1%. We continue to expect tapering to begin in early 2022 and the fed funds rate to remain unchanged until the first half of 2024.”

ii)Market data/USA

US Housing Starts, Building Permits Collapsed In February

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 08:37 AM

After mixed data last month (starts down, permits up), February’s starts and permits were expected to drop modestly MoM. Instead they utterly collapsed as interest rates soared, with Starts down 10.3% MoM (-1.3% exp) and Permits down 10.8% MoM (-7.2% exp).

Source: Bloomberg

Total starts and permits tumbled from post-financial crisis highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hoods, multi-family starts were the biggest driver of the drop… (single-family starts -8.5%, multi-family starts -14.5)

Both multi-family (-11.6%) and single-family (-10.0%) permits plunged…

However, housing starts crashed in the MidWest (down 34.9%) suggesting this unexpectedly large drop is weather related (and ironically Permits dropped across all regions except midwest: Northeast -9.8%, South -13.9%, West -11.3%, Midwest 1.2%)

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Psaki circles back and finally schedules a press conference with Biden on March 25.

(zerohedge)

Biden Finally Schedules Press Conference After Psaki Circles Back

TUESDAY, MAR 16, 2021 – 06:00 PM

Amid mounting questions from the press, including a ‘WTF‘ Monday Op-Ed from Bloomberg‘s Jonathan Bernstein, the Biden administration has finally booked the President’s very first press conference on March 25, according to a Tuesday announcement by White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki.

Each of Biden’s 15 most recent predecessors held a full news conference within their first 33 days in office, while Biden will have been in office for 64 days when select members of the press will ask carefully tailored questions, for which the president will provide carefully tailored replies (We don’t imagine they’ll let Fox News‘ Peter Doocy sit down with the President for what would undoubtedly border on elder abuse).

The number of reporters who will be allowed to attend the event is unclear, as is whether Biden will call from a prepared list of journalists.

Former President Donald Trump frequently hosted lengthy and combative press conferences with journalists. Biden, by contrast, takes few questions from reporters at events.

Biden, 78, is infamous for verbal gaffes that sometimes distract from his political agenda. For example, Psaki was last week left cleaning up Biden’s recent unscripted remark to an Indian-American scientist that immigrants from India are “taking over the country.” NY Post

Meanwhile, we can only wonder when Biden will address a joint session of Congress. Former President Donald Trump, on the other hand, will appear on “Fox News Primetime” Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET to sit down with host Maria Bartiromo.

Hours before Psaki announced the presser, former White House spox Kayleigh McEnany tweeted: “The lack of transparency from President Biden is unacceptable. Unlike his predecessors, he hasn’t scheduled a joint address to Congress or a press conference. Why?”

People are skeptical…

Trump warns border crisis will get much worse as Biden now pleads with migrants” do not come over”
(zerohedge)

GOP Senators Accuse Biden Of Breaking Law, Sparking ‘Humanitarian Crisis’ With Border Wall Halt

WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 12:05 PM

Forty Senate Republicans have accused President Joe Biden of breaking federal budget law when he suspended the construction of a southern border wall, and say the halt contributed to the current crisis involving illegal border crossings, according to Bloomberg.

On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) ad 39 other Senate Republicans demanded that the Government Accountability Office (GAO) investigate Biden for a potential violation of a 1974 act forbidding the executive branch from refusing to spend Congressionally-appropriated funds.

“On Jan. 20, in one of the first official acts of his presidency, Joseph Biden suspended border wall construction and ordered a freeze of funds provided by Congress for that purpose. In the weeks that followed, operational control of our southern border was compromised and a humanitarian and national security crisis has ensued,” states the letter. “The President’s actions directly contributed to this unfortunate, yet entirely avoidable scenarioThey are also a blatant violation of federal law and infringe on Congress’s constitutional power of the purse.

The letter, organized by Sen. Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) who sits on the Homeland Security spending panel, asks GAO head Gene Dodaro to render a legal opinion on whether Biden violated the Impoundment Control Act.

“We have to recognize that words have consequences and actions have consequences,” said Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY). “When the Biden Administration refuses to enforce our immigration laws, when they refuse to build the wall, when they pass legislation like the bill that we passed yesterday that includes money for illegal immigrants, this is what happens.”

Former Missouri Governor Eric Greitens says Biden’s border policy has created a ‘national security crisis’ and a ‘public health crisis.’

On Tuesday, former President Trump told Fox News‘ Maria Bartiromo that the borer crisis was going to get “much worse.”

“Frankly, our country can’t handle [the increase in migrants]. It is a crisis like we have rarely had and certainly we have never had on the border. But it is going to get much worse.”

In 2019, Trump shifted funds intended for military construction towards building the border wall, however a federal appeals court found the transfer illegal.

In the time since Biden killed border wall funding and signaled that his administration was migrant-friendly, a surge of individuals crossing the border illegally has created a crisis, with migrant children arriving in the US at faster rates than they can be processed, causing them to be housed in tents and cages beyond legally allowed holding periods.

According to Fox News, “The number of migrant children in federal custody has surged past 4,000 with roughly 94% of beds for migrant children occupied.”

END

iv) Swamp commentaries

Alaska’s Republican party censures Sen Lisa Murkowski, (a RINO) and vows to primary her in 2022

(Jack Phillips/Epoch Times)

Alaska Republican Party Censures Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Vows To Primary Her

TUESDAY, MAR 16, 2021 – 07:25 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and vowed to issue a primary challenge to her in 2022—coming after she voted to convict former President Donald Trump during February’s impeachment trial.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) arrives before the fifth day of the Senate Impeachment trials for former President Donald Trump on Capitol Hill in Washington, on Feb. 13, 2021. (Stefani Reynolds – Pool/Getty Images)

The state Republican Party said (pdf) it passed a resolution to censure—another term for a strong condemnation—Murkowski not only for her vote to convict Trump last month, but because she voted in favor of Democratic-led initiatives such as not placing limits on abortions, against the GOP-led repeal of Obamacare, and voted in favor of President Joe Biden’s pick for Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, among others.

The aforementioned votes, the state Republican Party said, were “in conflict with the Alaska Republican Party platform.”

The Alaska Republican Party said it will now “recruit a Republican primary challenger to oppose and prohibit Senator Murkowski from being a candidate in any Republican primary to the extent legally permissible.”

According to the GOP’s resolution, Murkowski also voted “present” rather than in support of the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and “repeatedly spoken critically of President Trump throughout his term in office.”

NRSC chair Sen. Rick Scott (R-Florida) has attempted to quell in-party fighting and said his committee will support incumbent senators for reelection in the 2022 midterms. That goes against what Trump proclaimed in his speech to conservative activists in Florida last month, where he promised to primary Murkowski, the six other Republican senators who convicted him, and all of the House members who voted with Democrats to impeach him.

Last week, Trump issued a statement saying he would pledge to campaign against her next year.

She represents her state badly and her country even worse. I do not know where other people will be next year, but I know where I will be—in Alaska campaigning against a disloyal and very bad senator,” the former president said.

The Epoch Times has contacted Murkowski’s office for comment.

In February, the Alaska senator said she would “vote again” to convict Trump if she were asked to do so.

“If the party is to censure me because they felt that I needed to support the party, they can make that statement, but I will make the statement again that my obligation is to support the Constitution that I have pledged to uphold, and I will do that, even if it means I have to oppose the direction of my state party,” Murkowski said, according to the Anchorage Daily News.

Murkowski hasn’t said whether she would seek another term in office. Murkowski won her reelection with 44 percent of the vote in 2016 against Libertarian candidate Joe Miller, who netted 29 percent.

Other than Murkowski, Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Richard Burr (R-N.C.), Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), and Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) have been censured by Republicans in their home states following the impeachment vote. The Utah GOP said it will not censure Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), while Maine’s Republican Party has yet to meet on how to handle Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine). Both Collins and Romney also voted to convict.

*  *  *

It seems Murkowski may pay the price for her loyalty to the Democrats

END
END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Ugly US economic data pushed economically sensitive stocks lower while elevating safe haven plays, notably tech stocks and Fangs.  Despite the economic angst, bonds rallied only a tad, an auction loomed.  Commodities declined sharply; but gold rallied while Bitcoin declined.

US Retail Sales tumbled 3.0% m/m in February; -0.5% was consensus.  Ex-Auto sales declined 2.7%; +0.1% was expected; Ex-Auto & Gas sales plunged 3.3%; -0.5% was consensus.  Department store sales collapsed 8.4%; Non-store retailers (on-line) plunged 5.4%; Motor vehicle & parts dropped 4.2%; Furniture & home furnishing declined 3.8%; Sporting goods, hobbies, musical instruments & book sales plunged 7.5%; and Building material & garden supplies dropped 3%.  Gasoline stations increased 3.6%.  Food & beverage is unchanged.  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

US Industrial Production declined 2.2% m/m (-4.25% y/y) in February; +0.3% was expected.  Manufacturing production plunged 3.1%; +0.2% was consensus.  Durable Goods production tumbled 4.7%; auto production plummeted 8.3%; and oil & gas jumped 6.4%. Capacity Utilization declined to 73.8% from 75.5%.  Utility production surged 7.4% due to wintry weather.  Mining tumbled 5.4%.

Pundits and the financial medial blamed the horrid February retail sales and industrial production on severe winter weather.

U.S. import prices jump 1.3% [Exports +1.6%] in February as inflation pressures build https://t.co/MflWKGTuum

@dlacalle_IA: Input costs for manufacturing companies are rising with commodities. However, margins are at risk as overcapacity means that many companies cannot pass the rising costs to consumers.
https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1371853010775642112

Investing in bonds has ‘become stupid,’ Ray Dalio says. Here’s what he recommends instead https://t.co/DfA5XwljI0

Bridgewater Co-CIO Sees Inflation Spiral Forcing Fed into Action
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-16/bridgewater-co-cio-sees-inflation-spiral-forcing-fed-into-action

Gig workers would pay higher taxes under coronavirus aid bill
Targeting underreporting of taxes, the proposal cuts IRS reporting threshold
    Under current law, such online platforms only have to report to the IRS when they pay individuals at least 200 times a year, for a minimum $20,000. The change inserted into a managers’ amendment just before House floor debate on the $1.9 trillion measure would cut that threshold to $600, regardless of how many transactions, generating an estimated $8.4 billion in extra tax revenue through fiscal 2031…
   The rise of eBay Inc. as a major player in the online market for connecting buyers and sellers of various wares highlighted a problem for the IRS: tracking how much money thousands of individual online merchants were making Cutting the reporting threshold “adds a significant burden to gig economy and small business workers at the worst possible time,” TechNet spokesman Steve Kidera said…
https://www.rollcall.com/2021/03/05/gig-workers-would-pay-higher-taxes-under-coronavirus-aid-bill/

Southern Illinois coroner claims state’s COVID death totals are inaccurately ‘inflated’
“We’ve reviewed several of these cases. The decedent had no condition at the time of death that would warrant a ‘COVID death,’ yet the state is still putting those statistics as a ‘COVID death.'”…
    “Anyone who has tested positive at any point in time, the Illinois Department of Health is classifying them as a COVID death,” Hill said… The only assumption I can make is for some federal money… I have no idea why you’d want to inflate the COVID-related deaths.”…
https://www.radio.com/kmox/news/local/coroner-claims-illinois-covid-death-totals-are-inaccurate

@AmyJacobson: And so it begins….We knew this 10 months ago when cancer patients in hospice were labeled COVID deaths. 2 suicides, 7 fatal gun shot victims and more listed as COVID deaths. Meanwhile our children’s lives were DESTROYED!

Tucker Carlson: How the pandemic has made fools of the so-called ‘experts’
When they say, ‘the science is settled,’ that’s how you know they’re wrong
    It turns out the research that formed the basis of that law came from a German hygenicist called Carl Flügge. It was Flügge who decided that six-foot separations were necessary to slow the spread of pathogens… His research on social distancing was published in the 19th century
    Millions of American schoolchildren have not been educated for a year because the CDC turned century-old German theories about tuberculosis into a kind of modern, state-enforced religious faith
    But Tony Fauci didn’t apologize for the fake science he’s imposed on the entire country. He just nodded and kept going…In June of last year, one of the leading scientific journals in the world, The Lancet,  came out with a study on social distancing, and it found this: “For the general public, evidence shows that physical distancing of more than 1 m [3.2 feet] is highly effective.”…
    So why are they telling us this now?… Joe Biden in charge, Fauci’s party wants to see the schools reopened because the public wants it…   https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-fauci-masks-covid

@CanAditude: She [CDC official] admits that freedom should be taken away to force people to vaccinate … It’s right in front of you. Do you hear it? Do you notice that they are NOT happy that States are going back to normal?     https://twitter.com/CanAditude/status/1370785050342658054

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy’s Office Was Warned on Nursing Home Policy: ‘Patients Will Die’ https://t.co/8brxxQyo0o

GOP Rep. @SteveScalise: House Democrats just voted AGAINST requiring COVID tests for illegal immigrants crossing the southern borderBut they still want your businesses locked down and your schools closed. Their double standards are disgraceful.

@GallupNews: In September of last year, 83% of Democrats and 56% of independents said government should do more, the highest on record for each grouphttp://on.gallup.com/3tqYxF7
@CBS_Herridge: Twitter says it has purged more than 150,000 accounts associated with QAnon. This morning, new, exclusive details @CBSNews about the social media platform’s decision, the process + free speech implications   https://twitter.com/CBS_Herridge/status/1371854468669702148

We noted several months ago that the Patron Saint of Wall Street in ‘80s, Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter, was widely cited for his view that capitalism was ‘creative destruction’.  Street pundits and media stooges played the Schumpeter card relentlessly when people complained about LBOs, corporate downsizing and mass layoffs.  The undetected by burgeoning financial engineering and tech industries, as well as record small business creation, mitigated corporate downsizing.

A couple decades after the ‘80s, we purchased Schumpeter’s “Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy”.  In his magnus opus, Schumpeter concludes that due to technology, automation, and corporatism (organizing society by corporate groups), socialism is inevitable because people will see government as their savior.

“Can capitalism survive? No. I do not think it can.” Thus opens Schumpeter’s prologue to a section of his 1942 book, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy… Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy is much more than a prognosis of capitalism’s future. It is also a sparkling defense of capitalism on the grounds that capitalism sparks entrepreneurship…  https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Schumpeter.html

Biden will hold his first formal presidential press conference on March 25.

Biden launches ‘Help is Here’ tour with 3-minute Pa. stop and almost no talk of stimulus bill
Biden spoke for about 3 minutes with the owners of Smith Flooring Inc in Chester, Pa., before reporters were escorted out…  https://nypost.com/2021/03/16/biden-launches-help-is-here-tour-with-3-minute-pa-stop-and-almost-no-talk-of-stimulus-bill/

Today is Weird Wednesday and the VIX expiry, which often contain the peak intensity of the expiry manipulation and a ‘Fed Day’.  The market expects no change in policy; but it expects and demands dovish rhetoric from the FOMC and Powell.  There is usually a rally into the Fed Communique and Powell’s press conference.  If the Fed and/or Powell are not as dovish as expected, traders will liquidate during or after Powell’s press conference.  Powell is likely to go woke again at his presser.

If the Fed does NOT extend SLR for banks past the March 31 termination date, look out below!

SPY closed at 395.91, -0.50 yesterday.  67,715 March 400 calls traded.  55,884 March 397 calls traded.  72,061 SPY March 389 puts traded; and 82,808 SPY March 395 puts traded.  For the previous few expirations, SPY put volume has exceeded call volume during the first three days of expiry week.  All presaged lame or downward moves for expiry.  March SPY put volume has been strong this week.

Look for the usual rally into the FOMC Communique release and Powell’s press conference.  The world expected the Fed and Powell to be extremely dovish.  However, given what is occurring in the bond and breakeven markets, the risk is very high that the Fed and/or Powell might mute their dovish rhetoric.

NYC Judge Removes 6-Year-Old from Mother Because She Didn’t Wear a Mask While Dropping Her Off at School – the court also told Dr. Epstein that in order to get short supervised visits with her child — she will have to wear a mask inside her own home… [“Back in the USSR…”]
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/03/exclusive-nyc-judge-removes-6-year-old-mother-didnt-wear-mask-dropping-off-school/

Tricia Flanagan (R-NJ) @NewDayForNJ: If Nancy Pelosi can call a Republican House seat win into question after it’s been certified, both chambers of Congress can also look into full election integrity questions in the 2020 Presidential race.

MI Court: Michigan Secretary of State’s Absentee Ballot Order Broke Law, Vindicating Trump Claim – Benson issued several unilateral orders during the 2020 election including sending absentee ballot applications to all registered voters. She also issued “guidance” on how to evaluate absentee ballots, a move Michigan Court of Claims Chief Judge Christopher Murray held violated the state’s Administrative Procedures Act…    https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2021/03/16/mi-court-michigan-secretary-of-states-absentee-ballot-order-broke-law-vindicating-trump-claim/

Is Something Dying in Darkness at the Washington Post?
The newspaper corrects its story on a famous Trump phone call
     We live in an age of cancel culture, but it seems that people who fabricate negative stories about Mr. Trump can expect eternal media forgiveness… media outlets never punished the anonymous sources of bogus Russia collusion stories by outing them. The bearers of false witness never gave their permission!
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-something-dying-in-darkness-at-the-washington-post-11615926067

Capitol Investigation Seeks to Criminalize Political Dissent
The government’s response to the January 6 melee isn’t about justice. It’s about partisan retribution and revenge. And the consequences will be disastrous.
    Even though Worrell had been cooperating with the FBI for two months, the agency nonetheless unleashed a massive, and no doubt costly, display of force to take him into custody. Law enforcement agents, according to one neighbor who spoke with a reporter, wore “whole outfits . . . like military and it was crazy. There was like six or seven . . . big black vehicles. They busted down the front door.” The raid included “armed men with helmets and a tanker truck” and was partially executed by the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force.
    Worrell never entered the Capitol building on January 6; he isn’t accused of committing a violent crime. But a D.C. judge overturned a Florida judge’s ruling to release Worrell pending further review of his case. He remains in jail… The Capitol Breach probe, the department’s official title, is a flagrant political prosecution targeting Trump supporters. Every display—from heavy-handed FBI raids to a militarized Washington, D.C.—is designed to portray the President Trump’s allies as domestic terrorists.
    Trump-hating thugs who tore up the nation’s capital during his 2017 inauguration also did not face extra charges for “obstruction of an official proceeding.” In fact, nearly all of the charges eventually were dropped by the same U.S. attorney’s office in D.C. now overseeing the Capitol riot investigation.
https://amgreatness.com/2021/03/15/capitol-investigation-seeks-to-criminalize-political-dissent/

Russian Intern Applicant: [GOP Rep.] Adam Kinzinger Dated Me, Asked for Photo ‘Without Underwear,’ Then I Got Intimidating Calls
https://nationalfile.com/russian-intern-applicant-adam-kinzinger-dated-me-asked-for-photo-without-underwear-then-i-got-intimidating-calls/

@ChuckRossDC: The latest foreign agent of Qatar is Fozzie Miller, the former commander of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command. He inked a $25k/month deal to liaise between the Qatar Ministry of Defense and Pentagon and advise on “technical military matters.” https://efile.fara.gov/docs/6936-Exhibit-AB-20210311-2.pdf

Columbia University hosting 6 separate graduation ceremonies based on income level, race, ethnicities   https://t.co/Hj7gvYbt2Q

@realDailyWire: Entering the U.S. under the Biden admin: https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1371854660462645258

Well that is all for today

I will see you THURSDAY night.

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