MARCH 18//RUN ON THE BANK (COMEX) CONTINUES: 5.5 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVES/IN SILVER 1.62 MILLION OZ IS RECEIVED AND THEN 1.63 MILLION OZ LEAVES! COMEX IN BIG STRESS: GOLD RISES $5.40 TO $1734.20//SILVER UP 28 CENTS TO $26.29//HUGE ADVANCE IN GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX TO 29.5 TONNES/SILVER STANDING: 56.1 MILLION OZ//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES/VACCINE UPDATES//ZOLTAN ON SLR..A MUST READ// USA TREASURIES BREAK ABOVE 1.75% DURING THE DAY AND CLOSE AT 1.71%// JOBLESS CLAIMS STILL REMAIN EXTREMELY HIGH//OIL PRICE COLLAPSES TODAY//USA SOUTHERN BORDER A MESS!!/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1734.20 UP $5.40   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$26.29 UP  $0.28   London spot price ( cash market)

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY KITCO

PLATINIUM  $1201.00 DOWN $4.00

PALLADIUM: 2584.50 UP $98.00. PER OZ

Closing access prices:  London spot//GOLD AND SILVER

i)Gold : $1736.30  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $26.07//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagles:

Even the TV pundits are now asking, without bothering to investigate, “what’s wrong with gold?” Yes indeed, what’s wrong with gold, other than a relentless daily cartel assault on PAPER gold. The physical coin premiums are widening out to spot. Gold Eagles are showing $200+ to spot, Silver Eagles $10+ to spot, if you can even find them. Supply and demand- fuggettaboutit. The more dollars printed the more valuable they become, and the more scarce gold and silver are the lower their prices go, so sayeth the Working Group. 

Jim McShirley

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today 36/212

issued:  0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped:  0

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR. CONTRACT:  212 NOTICE(S) FOR 21200 OZ  (0.6594 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  8439 NOTICES FOR 843900  OZ  (26.248 tonnes)

SILVER//MAR CONTRACT

 

41 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 205,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 10,180 for 50,900,000  oz

 
 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $58,069,  UP 148 dollars

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$54,015 DOWN 3906  DOLLARS .

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GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD UP $5.40  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING HUGE WITHDRAWALS WHETHER GOLD IS UP OR DOWN.

IT SEEMS TO BE THAT IN GOLD, THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS ITS GOLD LEASE BACK EVEN THOUGH THE GOLD IS IN THE B OF E VAULTS.  THE RISK OF DEFAULT BY THE GLD IS TOO GREAT FOR THEM SO THEY NO DOUBT THEY ARE CANCELLING THEIR LEASES WITH GLD

(THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR SILVER AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES TO SLV)

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:A WITHDRAWAL OF: 2.04 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD.

GLD: 1,048.28 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

AT 3:00 PM EST

A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.507 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

SLV: 589.931  MILLION OZ./

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 163.51 UP $1.16 OR  0.71%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 24.42  UP $0.32 OR 1.33%

Today was FOMC day and Powell did absolutely nothing to his plot for interest rate hikes.  However he did provide more room for counterparties in the REPO game.  For the past week, the volume in Rep-Treasury 10 yr was zero and the rate .01%. Now with more room for counterparty limits, the Fed is comfortable with a little negative interest rates. That should cause gold and silver to skyrocket.
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1653 CONTRACTS FROM 159,092 UP TO 160,755, AND CLOSER TO  A NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR TINY $0.05 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON WEDNESDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO A HUMONGOUS BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//HUGE REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A FAIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND A TINY DECREASE STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR MAR. WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2523 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW). 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  870,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  0 MAY:  870 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 870 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

56.025 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.05) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS.  WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (2523 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES WERE DUE TO i) HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A TINY DECREASE IN STANDING FOR SILVER  FOR MAR, iii) STRONG COMEX OI GAIN AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

MAR

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAR:

13,671 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 13,671 CONTRACTS) OR 68.355 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 977 CONTRACTS OR 4.8825 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 68.355 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 68.355. MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: A STRONG: 68.355 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1791, DESPITE OUR TINY  $0.05 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///WEDNESDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 870 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2661 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (DESPITE OUR TINY $0.05 GAIN IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  870 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 1791 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.05 GAININ PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $26.01 //WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW MAR.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 41 NOTICE(S) FOR  205,000, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3259 CONTRACTS TO 479,726, AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE  INCREASE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE  OF $3.65///COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY.WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.. WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS ADVANCE IN GOLD STANDING  AT THE COMEX TO 29.527 TONNES FOR MARCH..

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.65 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN  OF 7428 CONTRACTS 24.45 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 4,169 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  4169 AND JUNE:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 4,169.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 479,726. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7428 CONTRACTS: 3259 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4,169 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 7428 CONTRACTS OR 23.10 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4169) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (3259 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  7428 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUMONGOUS ADVANCE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT MAR. MONTH T0 29.527 TONNES3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) FAIR COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING WEDNESDAY//$3.65!!

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

We have now switched to GOLD for our spreaders!!

 

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAR. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

MAR

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR : 53,872, CONTRACTS OR 5,387,200 oz OR 167.56 TONNES (14 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3848 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 167.56 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 167.56/3550 x 100% TONNES =4.72% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..THUS EFP’S IN SILVER INCREASING AND GOLD EFP’S DECREASING
 
MARCH:.167.56 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN//EQUAL TO JANUARY)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1653 CONTRACTS FROM 159,092 UP TO 160,755 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING//REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A TINY DECREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR MARCH., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,

EFP ISSUANCE 370 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  0 ; MAY: 870 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 870 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1653 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 870 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2523 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12.615 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.05 GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.52 PTS OR .51%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 371.60 PTS OR 1.28%    /The Nikkei closed UP 302.42 POINTS OR 1.01%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.63%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.5040 /Oil UP TO 64.07 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.49 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5040. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5045 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 
 
 
 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY FAIR SIZED 3259 CONTRACTS TO 480,161 MOVING CLOSER TO  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $3.65 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING..REMEMBER THE GAIN IN GOLD HAPPENED AFTER 2 PM EST)… WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (4,169 CONTRACTS). THE BANKERS SEEM MIGHTILY SCARED OF LONGS STANDING FOR DELIVERY BUT THEIR ATTEMPTS ARE FAILING.  ON WEDNESDAY’S SESSION WE NO DOUBT HAD AGAIN  1)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING,  2) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)ANOTHER  HUGE//ATMOSPHERIC  ADVANCE IN STANDING AT THE GOLD  COMEX//MAR. DELIVERY MONTH(29.527. TONNES) (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 7428 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4169 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ; FEB// ’21  0 AND APRIL:  4169, JUNE:  0 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4169  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

HOWEVER, WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE. EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. LONDON IS OUT OF METAL.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED 7428 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4169 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 3259 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH  (29.527 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $3.65)., BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A STRONG 23.10 TONNES,  ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (29.527 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 7,428 CONTRACTS OR 742,800 OZ OR  23.10  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  479,726 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 47.97 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1492 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1492/2200 OR 67.82% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 252,633 contracts// volume fair  //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  1241,535 contracts//  volume:  fair–/ //most of our traders have left for London

 

MARCH 18 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAR COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
 
178,543.651 oz
 
 
HSBC
MALCA
MANFRA
 
 
 
 
 2 KILOBAR ENTRIES
THUS 5.553 TONNES OF KILOBARS REMOVED//
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
2,668.533 oz
JPMorgan
 
83 kilobars
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
212  notice(s)
21,200 OZ
(0.6594 TONNES
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
1054 contracts
(105,400oz)
 
3.278 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8439 notices
843900 OZ
26.248 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 
 
 
 
 
 
total deposit:  nil   oz
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account
i) Into JPMorgan: 2668.533oz  (83 kilobars)
total customer deposit: 2668.533 oz

3 withdrawals from  the customer account (2/3 were kilobar transactions)

 
 
 
i) Out of  HSBC: 160,755.000  oz (5000 kilobars)
 
ii) Out of Malca: 17,072.181 oz (531 kilobars)
ii) Out of Manfra 716.47 oz 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
total withdrawals:  178,543.651  (5.553 tonnes)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 4  kilobar transactions (out of 5 transactions)

 

ADJUSTMENTS  1:   customer to dealer

Brinks:  86,807.700 oz  (2700 kilobars)

 
 

The front month of MAR registered a total of 1266 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 423 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED ON  WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED ANOTHER MONSTROUS 429 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 42,900 OZ OR 1.33 TONNES WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MARCH DELIVERY MONTH.  THIS IS A RECORD FOR  QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MONTH AS OUR BANKERS ARE SHORT OF GOLD AND WILL DO ANYTHING TO JUMP AHEAD OF UNSUSPECTING LONGS TO OBTAIN METAL. MARCH IS GENERALLY A NON ACTIVE MONTH BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT THIS CASE THIS MONTH. SOMEBODY NEEDS AN URGENT SUPPLY OF PHYSICAL GOLD!!!!!!!

 
 

APRIL, THE NEXT FRONT MONTH, LOST A TINY 308 contracts to stand at 209,166.WE SHOULD HAVE WITNESSED A CONTRACTION OF AT LEAST 10,000 CONTRACTS BUT INSTEAD WE LOST A TINY AMOUNT. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A MONSTER APRIL DELIVERY MONTH IN GOLD. 

MAY GAINED  68 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 422

JUNE GAINED 2658 CONTRACTS UP TO 209,653

We had 212 notice(s) filed today for 21,200 oz

FOR THE MAR 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 212  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8439) x 7503 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAR // 1266 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 212 x 100 oz per contract) equals 949,300 OZ OR 29.527 TONNESthe number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH contract month:

No of notices filed so far 8439 x 100 oz  + ( 1266 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (212} x 100 oz which equals 949,300 oz standing OR 29.527 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of MARCH. This is a HUGE/ATMOSPHERIC amount standing for GOLD IN MARCH, A GENERALLY POOR NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

WE GAINED A STRONG 429 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL,42,900 OZ WILL STAND ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

WE ARE WITNESSING A FULL FRONTAL ATTACK  ON THE COMEX ON ALL SIDES AND MEANS FOR ITS GOLD.!!!!

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

339,772.427 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.5687 TONNES

312,798.505 oz  JPM  9.72 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,301,674.057 oz                                     71.59 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 491.94 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 29.527 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  18,117,657.310 oz or 563.53 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,301,674.057 oz or 71.59 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,815,983.0  (491,94 tonnes) a  slight gain of .3 tonnes due to adjustments
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,815,983.0 (491.94 tonnes)
 
 
 
total eligible gold: 19,585,274.206 , oz (609.18 tonnes)
 
 

total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 37,702,931.516 oz or 1,172.71 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1046.37 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
MARCH 18/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/MAR

 


MAR. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 
1,638,519.903 oz
 
CNT
Manfra
 
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
1,622,470.052 oz
CNT
Delaware
Int Delaware
 
and as soon as this entered it left comex vaults.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
41
 
CONTRACT(S)
(205,,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
1025 contracts
 5,125,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  10,180 contracts 50,900,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:
 
 
 

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 3 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into Delaware: 61,939.600 oz
ii) Into CNT: 971,412.232 oz
iii) Into Int. Delaware: 589,118.220
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 190.949 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.33% of all official comex silver. (190.949 million/371.897 million

total customer deposits today:  1,622,470.052   oz

we had 3 withdrawals:

 
 
i) out of CNT 1,502,248.03 oz
 
 
ii) Out of  Delaware  1999.133 oz
iii) Out of Manfra: 131,272.740 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals 1,638,519.903   oz

thus whatever came in left in a hurry

We had 2 adjustments:  dealer to customer

Brinks:  29,853.420 oz
JPMorgan; 174,171.900 oz

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 126.796million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  371.897 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MARCH saw a LOSS of 203contracts to stand at 1066. We had 202 contracts served on WEDNESDAY, so we LOST 1 contract or an additional 5,000 oz will NOT stand for delivery in this  active delivery month of March. These guys  morphed into London based forwards as there is no silver metal on this side of the pond so they will try their luck over there. 

April GAINED AN ASTONSHING  209 contracts to stand at 2973. (It rose instead of rolling to the next month).April numbers refuse to contract (roll).  They are standing resolute !!!!

May GAINED 1462 contracts to stand at  128,488 contracts. May is the next active month and it seems the cavalry are showing up for silver as well. Thus we have April, a non active month remaining high in oi and May as both months refuses to contract.!

Both April and May are going to be dandy delivery months. May I remind everyone that silver fell 25 cents yesterday.

The total number of notices filed today for MARCH 2021. contract month is represented by 41 contract(s) FOR 205,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  10,180 x 5,000 oz = 50,900,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (1066) and the number of notices served upon today 41 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the MAR standings for silver for the MAR/2021 contract month: 10,180 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MARCH(1066- number of notices served upon today (41) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 56,025,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MAR MONTH.(numbers corrected from a small error yesterday)

We LOST 1 contracts or an additional 5,000 oz will NOT stand for delivery as the morphed into London based forwards.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 58,942 CONTRACTS // volume extremely poor// volumes falling off a cliff//

FOR YESTERDAY  72,203  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME//poor//includes yesterday access volume

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO -0.65% ((MAR 18/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO –1.76% to NAV:   (MAR 18/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/0.65%(MAR 18/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 18.75 TRADING 17.89//NEGATIVE 4.61

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.07 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A REMOVAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.27 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.23 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.98 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $37.40 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.44 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD  DOWN $21.00  TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.26 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.30 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.38 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.12 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $9.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WHOPPING WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.50 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65 DOLLARS; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.7 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.54 TONNES.

FEB 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.24 TONNES//

FEB 25/ WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1106.36 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD// RESTS AT 1110.44 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1115.40 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $30.00 TODAY: STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1127.64 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 18//WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.68 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORYRESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.38 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1146.60 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1148.34 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1152.43 TONNES.

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1156.51 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $20.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $42.05 TODAY: STRANGE: HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.34 TONNES ADDED INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $12.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1160.13 TONNES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 4.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1164.80 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.71 TONNES LEAVES THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.17 TONNES

JANUARY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS 1172.38 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

MARCH 18 / GLD INVENTORY 1048.28 tonnes

LAST;  1020 TRADING DAYS:   +114.47 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 950 TRADING DAYS// +  300.71TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; AT 3 PM: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.507 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366  MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.501 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 3.90 MILION OZ AT 5.20..: TOTAL LOSSS 10.4 MILLLLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 596.616 MILLION OZ

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 76 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.486 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.017 MILLION OZ

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.774 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 605.531 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1.WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.593 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ.

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.17 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.857 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM//AND ANOTHER 1.858 MILLION OZ AT 5.20 EST//INVENTORY RESTS AT 615.898 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ//

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORIES AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: TWO ENTRIES I) HUGE CHANGE ISN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 127,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 7.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.322 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND 6.873 MILLION OF AT 5 20 PM EST/INVENTORY RESTS AT 611.685 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY : TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AN ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL 5.758 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP  1 CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 83,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.623 MILLION OZ//

FEB 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.044 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.530 MILLION OZ//

FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.312 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 630.574 MILLION OZ.

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 634.986 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 17.882 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.53 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 654.726 MILLION OZ//

FEB 5/WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 0.54 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 10.079 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A MIND NUMBING: 56.784 MILION OZ “DEPOSIT” INTO THE SLV at 3 pm AND A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.99 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 5 PM//WITH THESE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 669.357 MILLION OZ//

FEB2//WITH SILVER DOWN  $2.81 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN UNBELEIVABLE DEPOSIT OF 18.627 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 620.563 MILLION OZ//

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.56 TODAY: A FAIRY TALE DEPOSIT OF 34.419 MILLION OZ INTO  SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 601.936 MILLION OZ//

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 58 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.366 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.517 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.393 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.883 MILLION OZ/

JAN 27/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A XXXWITHDRAWAL OF 3.022 MILLION OZ OF IMAGINARY SILVER// INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.277 MILLION OZ/

JAN 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ///

JAN 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 2.044 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ./

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

 


MARCH 18/2021
589.931 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) PETER SCHIFF…

Peter Schiff Exposes The Fed’s Game Of Chicken

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 03:15 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its March FOMC meeting yesterday. As expected, there were no policy changes. Interest rates remain at zero. Quantitative easing carries on as it has been. Peter talked about the Fed meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s messaging in his podcast. He said the Fed is playing a game of chicken with interest rates and inflation.

While the Fed remained dovish in its policy, the FOMC did up its growth outlook and sang a much more optimistic tune about an economic rebound. Nevertheless, Powell made it crystal clear there are no plans for rate hikes for at least two years.

The Fed also didn’t give any indication that it is going to do anything about the continuing rise in long-term bond yields. Peter has likened this to a game of chicken.

Markets reacted positively to the Fed’s messaging. The Dow closed at a record high. But Peter said he wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t a selloff because he doesn’t think the Fed was dovish enough.

I think they really need to hear from the Fed that long-term interest rates are capped. I think that’s the hand they’re holding. I think the Fed now is playing the cards close to the vest. They don’t want to show what they’re holding. They’re trying to bluff. But at the end of the day, I think the markets are going to want to see the cards. I think that’s the only thing that’s going to save the market – is the Fed coming clean about its commitment to yield-curve control, to artificially manipulating not just the short end, which it’s already doing, but the long end because of the problems that it is going to create for the economy.”

During the post-meeting press conference, a reporter asked Powell directly about rising bond yields. Powell said he would only be concerned with a “disorderly” rise in rates. But Peter said even an orderly rise can disrupt the economy.

I think that when the Fed sees stronger evidence that the increase in yield is being a bigger problem for both the stock market and/or the economy, then I think the Fed is going to do exactly what I said and give the market exactly what it wants to hear. And that is that the QE program is going to be expanded to accommodate massive deficit spending to keep interest rates from rising and to keep the entire house of cards built on a foundation of cheap money from collapsing.”

Peter said although there was no real change in policy and the FOMC statement was substantively about the same as the last, Powell still managed to get more dovish.

They always manage to out-dove themselves. And really, you could see the Fed’s commitment to keep the punch bowl full of alcohol indefinitely when you listen to the way Powell talks. Because one of the things that he went out of his way to reassure everybody is that interest rate hikes are not coming — anytime soon. They’re years and years away. So, he’s saying, ‘Don’t even think about it. Don’t even worry about it.’”

One reporter asked Powell if it was time to start thinking about, thinking about, thinking about raising rates. Powell’s answer was, “No!”

This despite the Fed’s extremely rosy outlook for economic growth.

Despite the fact that the Fed thinks the economy is going to grow uninterrupted for the next few years, above trend, the fact that it sees a persistent decline in the rate of unemployment, and the fact that it sees inflation averaging 2%, something it has not done based on the way we measure it in quite some time – probably since prior to the ’08 financial crisis – the Fed says that rates are not going to go up. They’re not even going to think about raising rates. Even if all this good stuff happens, the Fed is assuring everybody that rates are going to stay at zero.”

Powell and company also assured everybody that there would be no taper. In other words, the central bank has no plans to slow down quantitative easing asset purchases. Peter said he thinks the Fed will ultimately do the opposite of taper, just like the Reserve Bank of Australia and the ECB have already done.

I think they’re going to ramp it up. They just haven’t admitted that yet. But what the Fed wanted to go out of the way to say was that if they ever decide that they want to taper, that they want to slow down their pace of asset purchases, Powell said we’re not going to surprise anybody with the taper. We’re going to give everybody an advanced warning.”

Peter said this is BS. If there is really a problem in the economy that the Fed has to react to, it has to do it in the moment. You can’t wait to see how the markets might react with some kind of trial balloon.

As far as inflation goes, Powell finally admitted that it would likely run above the 2% target sometime this year. But the word of the day was “transitory.” Powell said the big spike would primarily be because of the comparison to the really low prices we saw at the height of the lockdowns.

So, what Powell is saying is that the spike that he sees coming in inflation, and he only sees it coming up to maybe 2.4% … he’s saying that’s going to be transitory. So, the Fed is not concerned about that. Inflation is going to return back down to 2% or lower the following year. And according to Powell, inflation expectations remain well-anchored at 2%.”

A reporter asked Powell how much inflation would have to run above 2% before the Fed becomes concerned enough to act. He refused to put a number on it.

I think the reason he doesn’t want to is A. he can’t because he hasn’t even thought it through. But he probably doesn’t want to scare the markets by saying too high a number. Then the dollar would get killed. Gold would go up. Or, basically telling the truth that there is no number — that no matter how bad inflation gets, the Fed’s going to do nothing about it.”

When it comes to inflation, the Fed’s basic message is “we’ll cross that bridge when we get there, and we may never get there.” Peter said this should scare the bejesus out of anybody. And he raised a key question: what makes these central bankers so sure that the big price increases we’re seeing right now are transitory?

I mean, how do you know they’re transitory? You don’t know that until you transition out of them. If the guys at the Fed were such geniuses at predicting prices, well, they could make millions or billions trading the markets. … The reality is, they don’t know that these increases are transitory. As far as they know, any big price increases that we see in 2021 they could just be the beginning of a trend that’s going to go on for years, and years, and years.”

Powell is willing to gamble that price increases are transitory. The problem is that if you wait to find out before acting, it’s too late. It’s just another game of chicken.

There’s an old saying among central bankers – don’t let the inflation genie out of the bottle. Be proactive. Be preemptive.

What Powell went out of his way to do is say, ‘Hey, this time it’s different. We’re not going to be proactive. We’re just going to take a chance and hope that price increases are transitory, and we’re just going to assume that everything is going to be OK. And then if it turns out that we’re wrong, well, we’ll deal with that problem if it arises.’ But there is no way to deal with that problem if it arises, especially since it’s going to be so much worse because of the time that they waited.”

Listen to the entire podcast for more analysis of the Fed meeting and Powell’s comments

.https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/peter-schiff-exposes-feds-game-chicken?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

end

 Lawrie Williams…..

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Whither Peak Gold as Turkey expanding output?

Should two items of news reported this week come about, they could both affect global gold production and demand into the future, and even denote a more definitive trend in gold supply/demand fundamentals. The first involves the announced intention by Turkey to enhance the nation’s annual gold output, while the second is the first really positive news on central bank gold buying policy and comes from Poland, more on which we will cover in a separate article.

We have been hearing much over the past few years on ‘peak gold’ being the point at which global gold production starts to turn down after many years of continuing growth. True 2020 may well see a decline in global gold output compared with previous years, but that will almost certainly be, at least in part. a temporary phenomenon due to Covid-19 pandemic control measures leading to temporary mine closures – note the word temporary! Logically the cutbacks in global gold exploration activity over the past few years have meant that virtually no new big low grade gold projects, which have been the key factors in global gold production growth, are in the pipeline. Aging properties, and reducing grades at older mines would suggest that, at the very least, global gold production will plateau and start to wither.

Undoubtedly this is true, but it is taking longer to occur than most analysts had been projecting. Indeed global gold output has generally been rising, albeit by pretty small percentages, over the past several years according to some major gold-following consultancies. Actual peak gold may be proving somewhat elusive.

Falls in gold output from major producing nations are indeed occurring, but these are being at least partially countered by increases from nations producing gold from a plethora of smaller operations which, in combination are meaning that global gold output is remaining at around peak levels and even rising marginally in most years. True the latest Gold Demand Trends analysis from the World Gold Council (WGC) suggests that at 3,400 tonnes 2020 global new mined gold production was 4% lower than in 2019. This was the second consecutive annual decline in production – and the first back-to-back annual drop since 1975 – although the reasons were said by the WGC to be very different.

The WGC reported that Covid-19 pandemic interruptions were the main reason for lower mine production in 2020, and the impact varied both geographically and over time. Regionally, Asian production was hit hardest in Q1 (China being the world’s largest gold miner by volume of gold produced), as was output from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region (in combination the second largest new mined gold producer), although the latter was likely influenced by normal weather-related seasonality. Africa and the Americas saw coronavirus interruptions hit production the hardest in Q2, while Oceania saw production declining over the year, but this was probably only partly related to Covid-19.

Although there were thus recorded falls there were also rises in output and we have already reported, for example, on greater gold output from Australia almost certainly putting that country back into second position among the world’s individual gold producing nations. Australia mines its gold primarily from a large number of smaller producers and is set for another rise this year with some significant new producers coming on stream.

Meanwhile Turkey has also said it will endeavour to increase new mined gold production quite significantly – from a current level of around 42 tonnes annually to a yearly output of 100 tonnes over the next five years as some new gold mining operations are brought on stream.

The above ties in well with reports that the Turkish government is trying to reduce gold imports – the country was probably the largest global importer of gold in 2020 as recorded in WGC data and according to specialist precious metals consultancy, Metals Focus, Turkey’s gold bullion imports reached an all-time high of 503 tonnes, or $26.6bn, last year, contributing to over half of the country’s $49.9 billion current account deficit. Some of this gold may well be exported again – some say to Iran – and this does not seem to be referred to in the government statistics. While any rise in Turkey’s own gold output should help curb imports, on 2020 figures this would only have a marginal impact.

18 Mar 2021

end

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Jay Taylor interview GATA’s Chris Powell on gold suppression policy and he provides documentation

GATA/Jay Taylor

Jay Taylor interviews GATA secretary on gold suppression policy, documentation

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

1:15p ET Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Your secretary/treasurer was interviewed yesterday by financial letter writer Jay Taylor (https://www.miningstocks.com/), discussing the mechanisms and documentation of government gold price suppression policies and the refusal of mainstream financial news organizations to report about the issue.

The interview is 20 minutes long and can be heard at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBS0VsH2P9w

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

iii) Other physical stories:

SPECIAL THANKS TO ROBERT H FOR SENDING THIS TO US:

Russia To Invest $600 Mn In Kyrgyz Gold Project: Putin

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.5040 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.5035   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 176.52 PTS OR .51%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 371.60 PTS OR 1.28%

2. Nikkei closed UP 371.60 POINTS OR 1.28%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON/

USA dollar index UP TO 91.64/Euro FALLS TO 1.1942

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.11/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.07/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 64.07 and Brent: 67.49

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.26%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 0.73% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.40%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 0.99: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.96

3k Gold at $1729.75 silver at: 26.17   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 17/100 in roubles/dollar) 73.83

3m oil into the  64 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.07 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9274 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1075 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.26%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.735% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.492%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.35..

Nasdaq Futures Plunge As Bond Rout Sends 10Y Treasury To 1.75%

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 07:44 AM

It started off well enough, with futures initially continuing their post-FOMC ascent and lifting global markets.

However, It all reversed sharply during the Asian session driven by a sharp spike in the 10Y TSY, which initially jumped following a Nikkei report that the BOJ readied to adjust monetary policy and will look at measures that will allow long-term interest rates to move in “a slightly larger range of about 0.25%, versus 0.2% now” in order to make life easier for financial institutions. The news, which came during the Japanese trading break forced local traders to sell US paper instead.

The selloff then accelerated sharply when Europe opened, and pushed the 10Y as high as 1.75%, a level which BofA two weeks ago said was the “tipping point” for bonds

… the highest level since Jan 2020, while the 30-year topped 2.5% a level that hasn’t been seen since August 2019

The algos took one look at the fresh surge in yields and dumped risk assets with a focus on high duration “bathwater” tech names, slamming Nasdaq 100 futures 1.7% lower….

… while Emini S&P futs were set to fade the entire post-FOMC move.

While big U.S. banks, that are sensitive to economic outlook, including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs were among the top gainers in early premarket trade, momentum and growth darling Tesla slumped again in pre-market trading. Other yield-sensitive tech stocks such as the FAAMGs all dropped between 0.8% and 1.7% in premarket trading. Meme stock GME rallied as much as 5% before settling around $216 premarket.

The Dow on Wednesday surpassed 33,000 points for the first time after the Fed projected strongest growth in nearly 40 years as the COVID-19 crisis winds down while forecasting no rate hikes through 2023. While inflation is expected to exceed the Fed’s 2.0% target to 2.4% this year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell views it as a temporary surge that will not change the central bank’s stance. The Federal Reserve’s apparent willingness to keep pumping support into the economy and let it run hotter has spurred betson faster growth and inflation, sending market expectations of price pressures to multi-year highs.

“Rising real rates have created a hostile environment for longer-duration growth factors,” Jonathan White, head of investment strategy at AXA IM Rosenberg Equities, wrote in a note. “Looking ahead we continue to believe the environment should favor value stocks over growth stocks” White added echoing what has now become consensus sentiment across trading desks.

Despite the slump in futures, global stock markets edged higher on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve promised to keep its support in place.

MSCI’s 50-country world index was near record highs after the Fed had lifted Wall Street and Asia overnight and Europe opened with Germany’s DAX at a record high. European automakers, banks and other cyclical stocks led gains. The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.3% to 426.37. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Volkswagen common shares, preference shares and the stock of majority holder Porsche SE all continue the week’s rally, with analysts at Barclays and Bernstein pointing out a growing valuation discrepancy between VW’s common stock and its largest holder, Porsche SE, making the latter an attractive investment.
  • Sartorius Stedim shares rise as much as 9.1% and Sartorius AG jumps as much as 13% after the medical and lab- equipment companies raised their 2021 forecasts, citing increased demand due to the coronavirus pandemic.
  • BMW shares gain as much as 3.9% with Bernstein highlighting the carmaker’s potential to deliver “exciting and scalable e-mobility,” while giving its PT on the stock a big boost.
  • Holmen shares rise as much as 6.3% after Danske Bank upgraded the stock to buy from hold, seeing potential for upside in the share price in the coming year.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 Media Index jumps as much as 1% to reach its highest intraday level since Feb. 6 2020, recouping all of its pandemic losses. The sector gauge is set for its highest closing level since 2015.
  • Zur Rose shares slumps as much as 9.3% with Barclays saying the online pharmacy firm reported “disappointing margins,” though long-term commentary is “encouraging.”

Asian stocks climbed toward a two-week high while Japan’s Topix jumped past the 2,000 mark for the first time since 1991, becoming the region’s top-performing major equity index this year.  Internet stocks, which were previously hammered by a spike in U.S. Treasury yields, contributed the most to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s gain on Thursday. Reflation trades abated, with Commonwealth Bank of Australia and India’s Reliance Industries Ltd. among the heaviest drags on the region’s benchmark. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index led advances in Asia, with the gauge up 1.3%, extending its longest streak of gains in a month. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average pared gains, trading near its highest level in three decades. Key equity gauges in Indonesia and Vietnam rose more than 1%. India stocks extended declines for a fifth day, dragged down by Infosys Ltd.

The U.S. central bank sees the economy growing 6.5% this year, which would be the largest jump since 1984. Inflation is expected to exceed its preferred level of 2% to 2.4%, although it is expected to drop back in subsequent years.

“I don’t know what the Fed can do to stop a rise in yields that is based on stronger fundamentals,” said BCA chief global fixed income strategist Rob Robis, pointing to the $1.9 trillion U.S. stimulus package that will drive growth. “The path of least resistance is still towards higher yields,” he said. “The U.S. Treasury market leads the world and every bond market responds.”

As noted above, the move in rates was the highlight of the session with Treasuries extending the bear-steepening move unleashed by Wednesday’s FOMC decision during London morning; intermediate sectors led losses, sending 10-year yields above 1.70% for the first time since January 2020 after Fed policy makers increased their inflation forecast without anticipating a rate increase by 2023, greenlighting a steeper Treasuries curve.

Yields traded near session highs are cheaper by 1.5bp to 9bp across the curve with 10s leading the move, lifting 5s10s30s fly above 10bp for the first time since 2014; 10-year yields topped at 1.742% while 30-year yields approached 2.51%. Treasury 2s10s slope, higher by ~8bp near 160bp, is steepest since 2015, while the 2s10s rose as high as 159bps.

Treasuries underperformed bunds by 6bp, gilts by 3bp in 10-year sector. After the Fed meeting Barclays strategists took profit recommendation to be long the 3-year Treasury while Morgan Stanley positioned for a Treasury 5s30s steepener.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index swung to a gain and the dollar climbed versus most of its Group-of-10 peers as yields on the benchmark 10-year bond climbed as much as 10 basis points to 1.74%. A 25 basis-point hike by the first quarter in 2023 is still reflected in Eurodollar futures, which are priced off Libor and are a decent proxy for future borrowing costs, suggesting traders haven’t exactly brought their views on the timing that much closer to the central bank’s guidance. The euro retreated from a one-week high of $1.1989 while Norway’s krone rallied to a more than a one- year high of 10.0215 per euro after Norges Bank brought forward the timing of what will probably be the rich world’s first interest rate increase since the pandemic broke out. The pound was steady before a Bank of England policy announcement in which it’s likely to emphasize its high bar for tightening monetary policy, a move to tamp down speculation that a quick recovery will force policy makers to push U.K. borrowing costs higher; U.K. government bonds fell, underperforming bunds.

The Australian dollar rose to a two-week high of $0.7849 after data showed the nation’s economy created more than twice as many jobs as expected in February.. Its New Zealand counterpart lost momentum, however, after the country posted a surprise contraction in fourth-quarter GDP.

Elsewhere, oil slipped after U.S. crude stockpiles topped half a billion barrels and the International Energy Agency said global supplies are plentiful. Bitcoin traded around $59,000. The dollar ticked higher. Gold dipped 0.3% to $1,737 per ounce.

Another day of central bank action was in store too. The Bank of Japan and Bank of England are both meeting, Norway signaled a possible hike this year and in emerging markets Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly hiked by 200bps after a torrid month for the lira.  The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of its peers, rose as much as 0.4% to 91.671. It had dropped to 91.300 after Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

“Similar to what we’ve seen from the Fed, the Bank of England will talk up their prospects of the economy relative to where we’ve been, but at the same time emphasize that we’re still a long way from full recovery,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

Looking at To the day ahead, and the main highlight will be the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision, along with remarks from ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell. Other speakers today include ECB Vice President de Guindos and the Executive Board’s Schnabel and Elderson, along with BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe and Chief Economist Haldane. Finally, data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, February’s leading index, and March’s Philadelphia Fed business outlook.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 3,960.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 426.22
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 209.99
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 696.18
  • Nikkei up 1.0% to 30,216.75
  • Topix up 1.2% to 2,008.51
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 29,405.72
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,463.07
  • Sensex down 1.2% to 49,219.15
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 6,745.91
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 3,066.01
  • Brent futures down 1.2% to $67.19/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,737.55
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 91.63
  • German 10Y yield up 2 bps to -0.27%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1948

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The next round of ultra-cheap loans from the ECB could boost the allure of Italian and Spanish debt. The record levels of spare cash in the euro-area system are set to grow by as much as 300 billion euros ($357 billion) as banks seek funds with extended sweetener terms at Thursday’s ECB liquidity operation, according to Banco Santander SA. That would push overall excess liquidity toward 4 trillion euros
  • The EU is bracing for a decision by its health regulator on whether AstraZeneca Plc’s Covid-19 vaccine is safe to use, a key step in the bloc’s efforts to move past a messy suspension by several countries. The European Medicines Agency, which has consistently backed the shot even amid concerns about the risk of blood clotting, will issue updated guidance on Thursday
  • Beijing is seeking a meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinpingnext month if the first high-level U.S.- China talks in Alaska starting Thursday are productive, according to people familiar with the situation

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

The FOMC spurred the S&P 500 and DJIA to fresh record highs and provided a constructive backdrop for the Asia-Pac region. That said, the ASX 200 (-0.7%) failed to take advantage of this with the index dragged amid weakness across tech, financials, healthcare and property, while a blockbuster jobs report did little to spur the risk appetite in Australia. Nikkei 225 (+1.0%) reclaimed the 30k status amid favourable currency flows and as Japan makes final preparations to end the Tokyo state of emergency on Sunday, although the index then pared some of its gains after reports suggesting the BoJ is to widen the yield target band to +/- 25bps and scrap its JPY 6tln target for ETF purchases. Hang Seng (+1.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) were both positive but with gains in the mainland somewhat limited after China lowered the bar on expectations ahead of the US-China meeting in Alaska and stated it will not compromise with the US on sovereignty. It was also reported that the US Commerce Department served subpoenas on multiple Chinese companies that provide information and communications technology or services in the US and the FCC voted to adopt procedures to determine whether to revoke China Unicom’s authority to conduct wireless operations in the US. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially stable as participants looked ahead to tomorrow’s BoJ conclusion, but then saw a bout of pressure on reopen from the lunch break following the source reports that the BoJ is to widen the yield target band and drop its ETF target which saw prices move lower by around 30 ticks before paring a majority of the losses.

Top Asian News

  • Edelweiss Denies Probe Allegations at Unit After Shares Plunge
  • China Takes Aim at a Booming $7 Billion Market for Dirty Oil
  • Pressure Mounts on Toshiba CEO After Defeat in Landmark Vote
  • Turkey Prosecutor Seeks to Shut Kurdish Party, Draws U.S. Rebuke

European equities opened the session with modest gains across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%) and continue to inch higher, following on from APAC’s predominately firmer lead. APAC took its lead from Wall Street after the S&P 500 and DJIA reached fresh record highs following the FOMC’s rate decision and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. Moreover, US yields saw considerable upside in early European trade, and at the time of writing, sit over 1.73% having had eclipsed 1.7450% at best. Thus, US equity futures have been giving back some of the aforementioned gains and currently all reside softer, with the tech-heavy NQ (-1.1%) the underperformer. Back to Europe, sectors opened mostly in the green with the underperformance in Food & Beverage (-0.4%) persisting throughout early European trade. Banks (+1.2%) are faring well due to the clearly favourable yield environment but they have since pared back a touch. Moreover, the Autos sector (+1.8%) is the clear outperformer which could be in part down to Porsche’s (+5.1%) and Volkswagen’s (+0.4%) earlier upside, with the latter’s Audi division also planning a disruptive entry into the EV market with some 20 EV models set for release by 2025. Note, BaFin said it is keeping an eye on Volkswagen share prices. Leading on from this, in-fitting with the upside seen in these Cos. the DAX (+1.3%) is the notable leading index on the day. Other notable gainers include Sartorious (+9.4%), which is led by the Co. raising its forecasts for FY 2021 and now sees revenue growth of around 35% against the prior forecast of 19-25%. The leading bank this morning is Deutsche Bank (+3.7%), as aside from the favourable economic environment, Board member Campelli stated the Cos. momentum has continued strongly into Q1 and revenues are up 20%. Lastly on the morning’s gainers, Adidas (+0.8%) are firmer after it was announced they are working with Peloton on an exclusive apparel line. Onto the downside, Elekta (-1.4%) are softer after influential bank JP Morgan downgraded the Co. to underweight in a broker move. National Grid (-0.1%) are also residing in the red which could be factored down to the Co. proposing the acquisition of Western Power Distribution for GBP 7.8bln, which would see an outflow of funds.

Top European News

  • Casino Is Said to Weigh Paris IPO for Renewable Arm GreenYellow
  • Danske Bank Faces Long Road Back as Fine Seen Hitting $1 Billion
  • Norges Bank Proves Its Hawk Status as Rate Hike Moves Closer
  • BT Says New Fiber Rules Are Green Light to ‘Build Like Fury’

In FX, the Buck has bounced firmly on the back of the latest rout in bonds that has shunted benchmark Treasury yields up towards and beyond levels that many are flagging as potentially pivotal for overall risk sentiment, and in context of repercussions for other asset classes, like equities. Specifically, the 10 year cash rate is now approaching 1.75% and 30 year briefly breached 2.5% to widen spreads between USTs and global counterparts even further, such as T-note/Bund out to 200 bp. Hence, the DXY has reclaimed 91.500+ status from a 91.300 low, and the Euro is one of the major casualties given its prominent weighting in the index. However, the Greenback still has some way to go before retrieving all its losses in wake of ‘dovish’ Fed dot plots ahead of IJC, the Philly Fed and February’s leading index.

  • NOK/AUD – In stark contrast to unchanged rate guidance from the FOMC (albeit a few more policy-setters leaning towards an earlier start to normalisation), latest projections from the Norges Bank indicate that lift-off may now come at the end of this year compared to mid-2022 previously and the path going forward has been tilted accordingly – see 9.00GMT post on the Headline Feed for more details and links to the March policy statement and MPR. In response, Eur/Nok is back below 10.0500 and has been under 10.0200, but still not quite close enough to test the symbolic 10.0000 mark. Elsewhere, the Aussie is also a G10 outperformer and managing to stay above 0.7800 vs its US rival following a pretty resounding labour report in terms of the key metrics that smashed consensus forecasts, and with the impressive headline payrolls beat all down to full time jobs.
  • CHF/EUR/NZD/JPY – Little independent impetus for the Franc via mixed Swiss trade and producer/import price data as Usd/Chf pivots 0.9250 and Eur/Chf straddles 1.1050 even though the Euro continues to hit technical resistance ahead of 1.2000 vs the US Dollar amidst pandemic waves and vaccine shortages. Moreover, heavy option expiry interest at the 1.2000 strike (1.3 bn) looks almost as overbearing as those at 1.1900 (1.6 bn) that could underpin Eur/Usd. Back down under, the Kiwi has been undermined by much weaker than expected NZ Q4 GDP, leaving Nzd/Usd nearer the base of a 0.7217-69 range and lifting Aud/Nzd through 1.0800.
  • JPY/SEK – The Yen has been volatile between 108.62-109.32 parameters against the Buck post-Fed and pre-BoJ eyeing US-Japanese yield differentials that were diverging further until a Nikkei report hit screens claiming that a new 10 year band for the 10 year JGB could be set at +/- 25 bp. However, Usd/Jpy has returned to the 109.00 axis that has been the focal point for trade of late and is close to the 200 WMA, in keeping with Eur/Sek around 10.1500 after somewhat conflicting Swedish jobs data and findings from a Riksbank survey of large businesses.
  • GBP – Sterling has had another look at key or significant peaks vs the Greenback and Euro circa 1.4000 and 0.8541 respectively, but its fate from a UK standpoint could lie in the hands of the BoE at midday – checkout our preview via the Research Suite or Headline Feed.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures were initially subdued in early European trade as an early spike in yields prompted downside in stocks and a firmer Buck, albeit crude-specific news flow has remained light throughout the session thus far. From a more fundamental standpoint, eyes continue to remain on the OECD inoculation, namely in some of the larger Eurozone countries, amid the temporary halt of the rollout of the AstraZeneca jab due to reports of blood clots, thus providing some headwind to the recovery momentum of the continent. Focus will reside in the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA) report on the matter, slated for around 1500GMT/1100EDT. The EMA could indicate potential groups at risk from the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, according to the Italian Medicines Agency. Aside from that and barring any major macro headlines, prices are likely to follow the overall risk tone and the Dollar. That being said, energy contracts nursed those earlier losses as US participants entered the fray, with no direct newsflow to influence the rise. WTI May now trades on above of USD 64.50/bbl (vs low USD 63.79/bbl) while its Brent counterpart meanders around USD 68/bbl (vs low 67.07/bbl). Elsewhere, spot gold and silver track the post-FOMC revival of the Dollar, with the former back below USD 1,750/oz (vs high USD 1,755.50/oz), whilst silver holds its head just above USD 26/oz (vs high 26.631/oz). Elsewhere, Chinese ferrous metals were bolstered by the post-FOMC risk sentiment, whereby Dalian iron ore saw a firm performance alongside coking coal, steel rebar, hot rolled coil and shanghai stainless steel futures. However, the base metal complex has been feeling the weight of the yield-related jittery sentiment, with LME copper trading just off session lows after briefly dipping below USD 9,000/t.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: March Initial Jobless Claims, est. 700,000, prior 712,000
  • 8:30am: March Continuing Claims, est. 4.03m, prior 4.14m
  • 8:30am: March Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 23.2, prior 23.1
  • 9:45am: March Langer Consumer Comfort, prior 49.4
  • 10am: Feb. Leading Index, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The FOMC was the week’s big event and seemed to deliver on the dovish-goldilocks scenario that markets were hoping for. The heavily-watched dot plot showed the FOMC leaned toward keeping rates unchanged through 2023 despite their upgrades to the economic outlook, with the median dot still showing rates on hold at end-2023, in spite of anticipation that they might show liftoff by that point. Their forecasts now show unemployment failing to 4.5% by the end of this year and 3.5% in 2023, while GDP is expected to expand by +6.5% in 2021, well ahead of December’s estimate of +4.2%. In the ensuing press conference Chair Powell said that “The strong bulk of the committee is not showing a rate increase during this forecast period” – specifically until after 2023, and he added that it was “not yet” the time for them to discuss reducing asset purchases. On the topic of inflation, the FOMC’s forecast saw their preferred measure of inflation spiking to 2.4% in 2021, before slowing to 2% next year. Our US economists have more details on the outcome here, and in response they’ve pushed back their expectations of the first rate hike from Q3 2023 to mid-2024.

The meeting was a small step towards trying to be credible on its average inflation targeting message that Fed officials have been embracing since Jackson Hole. At the moment this is all fine if the Fed’s assumption that any inflation is transitory is proved correct. However if the market doubts the transitory nature of inflation at any point that’s when the fun and games start. We’re not there at the moment however.

Proving this point, risk assets finished the day higher and bond yields fell after a sharp sovereign sell-off prior to the meeting. Starting with equities, the S&P 500 was down -0.57% just ahead of the Fed announcement before rising to flat nearly immediately following the statement’s release. The index then finished up +0.29% at yet another record high, after the press conference went without any hitches. Tech saw an even bigger turnaround as the NASDAQ was down more than -1.4% early in the US session before finishing up +0.40%. The heavily concentrated NYFANG index rose +1.50% on the day and climbed along with US banks (+0.89%) as the majority of the US equity market found a reason to rally. And on top of all this, the VIX index of volatility fell -0.56pts to a fresh 1-year low of 19.23pts.

US Treasuries witnessed a strong bear-steepening before the Fed’s decision with yields on 10yr Treasuries up +6.9bps to a 13-month high of 1.687% ahead of the announcement. They then rallied after the announcement before coming back up slightly to finish +2.5bps higher on the day at 1.643%, though this morning they’re up a further +2.6bps to 1.669%. Real yields drove the bulk of the increase yesterday, with 10yr breakevens up just +0.5bps. US 2yr note yields were flat ahead of the meeting, but ended up -1.4bps lower afterwards as markets reappraised the odds of rate hikes by the end of 2023. That said, even with the median dot showing rates on hold through end-2023, markets are still pricing in a more rapid liftoff than the FOMC are currently indicating, with two hikes priced in by the end of 2023. The decline in 2yr yields saw the 2s10s curve steepen further (+4.4bps) to levels (150.9bps) not seen since August 2015, while the dollar saw a steep drop, falling -0.67% from just prior to the FOMC to end -0.46% lower – the greenback’s worst day since early February.

Overnight in Asia, markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+0.66%), Hang Seng (+1.51%), Shanghai Comp (+0.55%) and Kospi (+0.83%) all moving higher. Futures on the S&P 500 are trading broadly flat while those on Nasdaq are down -0.07%. Meanwhile, sovereign yields have inched higher with those on Japanese 10y up +1bp following a report from the Nikkei newspaper that the BoJ are likely to widen the trading range around its 10-year bond yield target to 0.25% either side of zero, up from 0.2% at the moment. The news also led to the Nikkei index paring some of its gains and comes ahead of tomorrow’s BoJ policy meeting where the central bank is due to announce the outcome of its policy review. Elsewhere, Australia’s 10yr is up +6.7bps as the country reported a strong February employment report with unemployment rate dropping to 5.8% (vs. 6.3% expected) as the previous month’s figure was also revised down a tenth to 6.3%.

In other news, the Wall Street Journal reported that China would seek a meeting between US President Biden and Chinese President Xi next month if the high-level talks between the two countries that start today in Alaska are productive. The report said that this could be organised around Earth Day on April 22, to indicate the leaders’ commitment to combating climate change.

In advance of the Fed, European equities were fairly steady yesterday but the STOXX 600 fell back -0.45% from its post-pandemic high the previous day. A big out-performer was Volkswagen (+11.04%) which was the strongest performer in the STOXX 600 as it overtook SAP as Germany’s most valuable public company. The moves have come after VW announced their plan to become the world’s leader in electric vehicles earlier this week. Over in rates meanwhile, sovereign bonds sold off across the continent, and by the close of trade, yields on 10yr bunds (+4.5bps), OATs (+4.9bps) and BTPs (+7.1bps) had all risen. This was before the Fed meeting conclusion though.

Bitcoin was up +2.42% yesterday to $57,751, its first daily gain since Saturday when it broke through $60,000 for the first time. On this topic Marion on my team has released the latest in her Future of Payments series yesterday, with the latest edition looking at Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency’s market cap of $1 trillion is making it too important to ignore, and prices could continue to rise as long as asset managers and companies continue to enter the market. Nevertheless, bitcoin transactions and tradability are still limited, and the real debate is whether rising valuations alone will be reason enough for bitcoin to evolve into an asset class, or whether its illiquidity is an obstacle. Click here to read more.

Looking forward now, today marks the much-anticipated verdict from the European Medicines Agency on their review of the AstraZeneca vaccine, following reports of blood clots that have led a number of European countries to suspend the jab. As we mentioned yesterday, it would be a big surprise if they were to withhold approval given the various statements since the start of the week, and the EMA’s statement on Monday said that their view remained that the benefits of the vaccine outweighed the risks.

Staying on the pandemic, there was yet another escalation of tensions between the EU and the UK yesterday after European Commission President von der Leyen refused to rule out using Article 122. If invoked, this would in theory allow the EU to take control of the production and distribution of vaccines, potentially placing export controls on vaccines that had been destined for the UK. The only time it’s previously been used was during the 1970s oil crisis, but von der Leyen said that “I am not ruling out anything for now because we have to make sure that Europeans are vaccinated as soon as possible.”

Speaking of the UK, today will also see the Bank of England’s latest policy decision, which is being announced at 12:00 London time. According to our UK economists (link here), the MPC will likely stick to last month’s script, keeping the policy rate on hold and the pace of asset purchases steady. However, similarly to the Fed, markets have brought forward their expectations for the next BoE rate hike since the last meeting, and now expect an initial hike within the next 2 years. And in another parallel, inflation expectations have also risen, with 10yr UK breakevens at their highest level since September 2008 yesterday, at 3.488%. Recent MPC speak has endorsed market pricing, but our economists expect them to walk a tightrope between talking up the recovery whilst avoiding too hawkish a message that would see an unwarranted tightening in financial conditions.

In the Netherlands, exit polls show that incumbent Prime Minister Rutte was set to return for a fourth term following the general election, with an Ipsos poll indicating his VVD party are set to gain 3 seats to 36 in the new parliament. In second place were the pro-European D66, while Geert Wilders’ PVV fell into third.

Looking at yesterday’s data, US housing starts and building permits fell by more than expected in February as the severe weather affected the data. Housing starts fell to an annualised rate of 1.421m (vs. 1.560m expected), and building permits were down to 1.682m (vs. 1.750m expected), though in both cases they were also coming off their highest rates since 2006 the previous month. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, the final CPI and core CPI readings for February were in line with the earlier flash estimates, at +0.9% and +1.1% respectively.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision, along with remarks from ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell. Other speakers today include ECB Vice President de Guindos and the Executive Board’s Schnabel and Elderson, along with BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe and Chief Economist Haldane. Finally, data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, February’s leading index, and March’s Philadelphia Fed business outlook.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.52 PTS OR .51%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 371.60 PTS OR 1.28%    /The Nikkei closed UP 302.42 POINTS OR 1.01%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.63%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.5040 /Oil UP TO 64.07 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.49 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5040. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5045 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

Washington and Beijing are still far apart on key issues as they begin their two day Alaska summit

(zerohedge)

Washington, Beijing Reportedly Far Apart On Key Issues Ahead Of Alaska Summit

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 08:00 PM

In the span of just a few days, a high-level summit between Washington and Beijing in far-flung Anchorage, Alaska is about to kick off Thursday and continue through Friday. And as the world waits to see whether the fate of Taiwan will factor into the discussionsthe Wall Street Journal has returned with some more details about Beijing’s agenda.

Per the report, the two lead Chinese delegates (Yang Jiechi, a member of the Communist Party ruling body, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, China’s top-ranking diplomat) plan to urge Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan to drop sanctions and restrictions on Chinese entities and individuals put in place by the Trump administration. Ransquawk described the meeting as “the first significant engagement” between the world’s two largest economies, and arguably, the world’s only two contemporary superpowers since President Trump left office. Depending on the outcome, the meeting could set the tone for bilateral relations for years to come.

So far, Biden and his team have tried to maintain a tough-on-China stance, pledging to leave Trump’s tariffs and other punitive measures, like keeping Huawei on the Entities List, in place.

US officials reportedly told WSJ that hot-potato topics like Beijing’s move to crush democratic freedoms in Hong Kong, and its aggressive policing of the South China Seat will factor in to the discussion. However, every time the US has expressed concerns about China’s increasingly aggressive military posture toward Taiwan, Beijing has replied by sharply insisting that Washington not meddle in China’s domestic affairs.

Blinken used a trip to Japan and South Korea this past week to blast Beijing’s aggressive stance toward Taiwan. Politico mused in a headline that the two sides appeared headed for a “frosty” summit.

Beijing has gone so far as to obliquely threaten the US with military retaliation if it continues to back Taiwan’s domestic pro-independence politics.

WSJ noted that China is coming to the meeting with a different agenda that bears little overlap with the Biden Administration’s preferred talking points. Though the Chinese officials are reportedly planning to propose that high-level meetings between the two governments be re-established.

Chinese officials reportedly started laying the groundwork for the summit late last year. Chinese sources reportedly told WSJ that “the US side proposed to hold this high-level strategic dialogue, which we think is meaningful…and…”we hope that the two sides can have a candid dialogue on issues of mutual concern.”

Beijing is expected to propose a virtual climate summit set for April 22 to schedule a meeting between President Biden and President Xi. The two leaders, who have known each other for years, have spoken only once by phone since Biden took office.

In summary, few expect the two sides to accomplish much more than an initial sizing up of the competition. Biden is preparing to convene a “quad” summit with several of China’s other recent adversaries like Japan and Australia. With all this in mind, Ransquawk speculated the focus will be on the tone of the meeting and how diverged /converged each other’s views are, as the focus shifts toward what might be accomplished during future rounds of talks.

END

CHINA VS USA

USA sanctions 24 individuals from China and Hong Kong hours before their Alaska summit

(zerohedge)

US Sanctions 24 China & Hong Kong Officials Hours Before “Frosty” Alaska Summit

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 10:20 AM

In a move likely to sabotage any potential (however unlikely) diplomatic breakthrough with China, on the eve of the much anticipated Alaska talks which kick off Thursday between delegations headed by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and China’s two top diplomats, the Biden administration slapped sanctions on 24 Chinese and Hong Kong officials.

This in response to Beijing’s voting through the sweeping Hong Kong election overhaul which effectively ensures the city is run only by pro-mainland “patriots”. But more symbolically it’s a clear message the US delegation is about to play hardball when it sits down with the Chinese side in Anchorage over a period of two days:

The step reflects Washington’s “deep concern” about the erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy following changes to its election system endorsed by China’s ceremonial legislature last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement Wednesday.

Foreign financial institutions that deal with the 24 officials would be subject to U.S. sanctions, the State Department said.

Via AP”

Given the two sides don’t even appear to have reached agreement as to the nature of the Thursday through Friday Alaska meeting, it’s sure to be a “frosty” two days, as Politico and others have commented.

This is further as the tit-for-tat angry accusations and denunciations have continued, which have remained no less intense from those of the final year of the Trump administration.

At the Chinese Foreign Ministry a spokesperson blasted Blinken’s announced sanctions even as Chinese diplomats are already in the air traveling to Anchorage:

The imposition of new sanctions “fully exposes the U.S. side’s sinister intention to interfere in China’s internal affairs, disrupt Hong Kong and obstruct China’s stability and development,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told reporters at a daily briefing Wednesday.

“China will take strong measures as appropriate to resolutely defend national sovereignty, security and development interests,” Zhao said.

 

Anchorage, Alaska via Shutterstock

In particular the sanctions at hand target 14 members of China’s legislative council, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, along with other officials seen as responsible for driving through the ‘election overhaul’ which cedes more control to Beijing.

Making tensions worse just before the two sides are set to meet, Blinken while traveling with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Japan released a scathing joint statement with Tokyo earlier this week. They blasted China for what they called “coercion and destabilizing behavior toward others in the region.”

EU/CHINA

This should be interesting: The USA notifies China that it will enforce Trump era sanctions on Iran oil shipments. Now what on earth will Biden do with his financial partner.

(zerohedge)

US Notifies China It Will Enforce Trump-Era Sanctions On Iran Oil Shipments

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 06:00 PM

A key tenet of the prior Trump administration’s crackdown on China and Iran was to punish those Chinese companies caught transferring sanctioned Iranian oil, which was often done through ‘ghosting’ or at other times offshore ship-to-ship transfers in order avoid detection. 

Since President Biden took office there’s been wide reports thatChina’s ‘illicit’ imports of Iranian oil have soared, resulting in critics and Iran hawks charging the White House with “turning a blind eye” in terms of sanctions enforcement based on existing laws on the books, also as Biden is seeking a path back to engagement with Iran on the US rejoining the JCPOA nuclear deal.

This week a senior Biden admin official has admitted in comments to FT that such banned Iranian oil exports to China have been increasing “for some time now” as Beijing continues to be Tehran’s lifeline for circumventing oil sanctions, which has been ongoing for years now. China has also played a major part in keeping Venezuela’s oil exports afloat.

But now, as FT reports Wednesday “The Biden administration has told Beijing it will enforce Trump-era sanctions against Iranian oilas shipments from the Islamic regime to China have soared, a senior US official said.”

Despite the White House still saying it’s “prioritizing” re-entry into the nuclear deal, efforts which have been stalled thus far as Tehran is demanding the easing of sanctions as a first step, the senior official revealed to FT“We’ve told the Chinese that we will continue to enforce our sanctions.”

“There will be no tacit green light,” the official added, but enforcement might take the form of what’s dubbed these “secondary sanctions” targeting Chinese companies caught transferring Iranian oil. However, it remains the possibility that these too could ease assuming Washington and Tehran re-enter talks.

The senior official described to FT further that this could theoretically come as “either as part of a mutual set of steps or as part of a full return into compliance” with the JCPOA. “Ultimately, our goal is not to enforce the sanctions; it is to get to the point where we lift sanctions and Iran reverses its nuclear steps.”

Recall that in January Indonesia seized two supertankers — the Iranian-flagged MT Horse and the MT Freya, which is under a Shanghai-based company — that were engaged in an unregistered transfer of Iranian oil at sea.

It’s believed that such sanctions-busting happens on a weekly basis through various means, which also includes operating ships under shell companies. This latest White House ‘threat’ to get serious on “secondary” sanctions enforcement (pertaining to Chinese transfers) appears ultimately about building more leverage as the US “indirectly” negotiates with the Iranians via European officials.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU/CHINA

This is also interesting:  for the first time the EU will sanction China over Uighur genocide

(zerohedge)

EU To Sanction China For First Time in 3 Decades Over Uighur ‘Genocide’

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 02:45 AM

US pressure and spiraling relations with Beijing, lately focused heavily on human rights-related complaints and the crackdown particularly on China’s ethnic Muslim community which the Trump administration had previously dubbed “genocide”, are now for the first time manifesting in a very definitive way in Europe.

“The European Union agreed on Wednesday to blacklist Chinese officials for human rights abuses, two diplomats said, the first sanctions against Beijing since an EU arms embargo in 1989 following the Tiananmen Square crackdown,” Reuters reports.

These first EU sanctions in over three decades stem from widespread reports of ‘systematic’ human rights abuses in the northwest Xinjiang region, where millions of Muslim Uighurs are said to be confined to Communist ‘reeducation’ and labor camps.

 

Via AP

It’s to include travel bans and asset freezes on at least four Chinese individuals and one entity, Reuters notes; however, the names aren’t expected to be made public until formal approval by EU foreign ministers on March 22.

EU diplomats have confirmed the sanctions preparations to Reuters, which writes further:

The 1989 EU arms embargo on China, its second-largest trade partner, is still in place.

“Restrictive measures against serious human rights violations and abuses adopted,” one EU diplomat said.

Shortly after the report, the Chinese mission to the EU posted a statement expressing anger over the move, calling it “confrontational”.

“Sanctions are confrontational,” the Twitter statement said. “We want dialogue, not confrontation. We ask the EU side to think twice. If some insist on confrontation, we will not back down, as we have no options other than fulfilling our responsibilities to the people.”

Canada meanwhile has been most vocal and out front on the Uighur issue, with many MPs attempting to urge EU countries and others to boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing.

This dramatic proposal to sit out the games as a human rights “message” to China has been met with coolness in Europe. Thus this sanctions measure appears an attempt at ‘doing something’ but without going as far as some Canadian and British lawmakers are pushing for.

All of this further comes as EU officials are refusing China’s invitations to investigate the Uighur camps first hand: “China denies any human rights abuses in Xinjiang and says its camps provide vocational training and are needed to fight extremism,” Reuters writes.

“Beijing has on numerous occasions invited EU ambassadors to Xinjiang but envoys say they cannot visit under the strict conditions and monitoring set by Chinese authorities.”

END

UK

The Pound slides that the Bank of England states that it will not tighten unil significant progress has been attained on inflation

(zerohedge)

Pound Slides After BOE Says Won’t Tighten Until “Clear Evidence Of Significant Progress On Inflation”

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 08:15 AM

The barrage of central bank announcement continued, with the BOE the latest bank to keep policy on hold, voting unanimously to keep the rate at 0.1% and QE at 875BN pounds

While that was not a surprise, what the market was focusing on was whether the BOE would continue its recent hawkish pivot that together with the recent good news on the UK’s vaccine front had helped send cable sharply higher in recent months.

So following in the Fed’s footsteps, and unwilling to risk its own taper, the BOE addressed that question head on, writing in its statement that “the MPC will continue to monitor the situation closely. If the outlook for inflation weakens, the Committee stands ready to take whatever additional action is necessary to achieve its remit. The Committee does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.”

Some more highlights from the BOE decision, courtesy of Newsquawk:

  • Committee continued to envisage that the pace of purchases could remain at around its current level initially, with flexibility to slow the pace of purchases later
  • Should market functioning worsen materially, the BoE stood ready to increase the pace of purchases to ensure the effective transmission of monetary policy
  • Current stance remains appropriate; news of recent plans for lifting restrictions may be consistent with a slightly stronger outlook for consumption growth
  • Plans for the easing of restrictions on activity have been announced and envisage that restrictions could be lifted somewhat more rapidly than was assumed in the February Report
  • If the outlook for inflation weakens, the Committee stands ready to take whatever additional action is necessary to achieve its remit
  • There is judged to be a material degree of spare capacity at present
  • The outlook for the economy, and particularly the relative movement in demand and supply during the recovery from the pandemic, remains unusually uncertain
  • The rates of Covid infections and hospitalisations have fallen markedly across the United Kingdom and the vaccination programme is proceeding at a rapid pace
  • Outlook continues to depend on the evolution of the pandemic, measures taken to protect public health, and how households, businesses and financial markets respond to these developments
  • Upward movement in yields appeared to have been driven by positive news on global economic growth
  • Different MPC members placed different weights on the balance of risks around the outlook
  • The substantial new US fiscal stimulus package should provide significant additional support to the outlook

In kneejerk reaction, Credit Agricole FX strategist Valentin Marinov, said that “while the BOE is not necessarily more dovish today, it is by no means turning more hawkish despite the better data of late.” That could hurt the pound, especially against a stronger dollar, he said, and he was right, with cable – which had hit 1.40 earlier – dipping as low as 1.3945 although still well above the pre-FOMC level of 1.3850.

Vanda Research FX strategist Viraj Patel echoed the sentiment, tweeting that the “Bank of England much more two-way risks than what $GBP markets have been pricing in recent months on UK vaccine outperformance.”

But what we find most remarkable is how quickly the landscape has changed: just last month, the focus of the market was whether the BOE would address negative rates. Fast forward to today and there was not a single mention of NIRP by the BOE.

END
FRANCE/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE
France heads into lockdowns again as a third wave strikes. It sure looks like Mike Whitney is right.  The vaccinated are expelling the virus as they come in contract with it.  The vaccinated do ok as symptoms are light, but the unvaccinated are whacked
(zerohedge)

France Heads Back Into Lockdown As COVID “Third Wave” Hammers Europe

BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 03:02 PM

As a third wave of COVID infections believed to be driven by mutant strains of the virus explodes in Europe, France has just become the latest country to start reimposing lockdown measures, following in the footsteps of Italy, Germany and others.

After initially resisting pressure to revive lockdown measures, Paris and 16 other regions are reimposing lockdown measures on the orders of French Prime Minister Jean Castex, who was appointed to that post to manage the French government’s response to the pandemic.

The measures will be in place for at least four weeks, though they will be less restrictive than the measures seen last year. Fears of the third-wave come as Europe overtakes the US as the leader in new COVID cases, while its vaccination campaign falls further behind.

Schools will remain open in the affected areas, but residents will be asked to keep their outdoor activities within a 10km radius from their homes. Non-essential shops will once again be asked to shutter, except book shops (which are needed for school, of course).

A 1900 local time curfew will be implemented, and inter-regional travel will be prohibited.

The new measures will begin Friday night, giving residents a day to prepare.

Reports of the new lockdown arrive as Castex has promised to restart vaccinations using the AstraZeneca jab after the EMA declared it safe earlier (though the scientist who led the safety review acknowledged a possible connection between the vaccine and individuals with low blood-platelet counts). Castex confirmed that he had accepted the EMA’s conclusion in a statement to the press. Many other countries, including Italy, Spain and Germany, have also confirmed plans to restart the AstraZeneca vaccinations.

Notably, Norway’s Public Health Institute will wait until next week to decide whether to resume vaccinations. This follows reports from earlier alleging a potential connection between the vaccines and a dead health-care worker.

“Vaccinations with the AstraZeneca vaccine will remain on hold until we have a more complete picture of the situation,” Camilla Stoltenberg, Director General of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, said during a Thursday press briefing.

Speaking Thursday, Castex warned France is also battling the “third wave” of COVID infections that has been identified elsewhere in Europe. It comes as France on Thursday reports 34,998 new cases, down slightly from the more than 38K new infections the day before. Another 268 people died, bringing France’s total deaths to 91,679.

Meanwhile, Swedish officials said they had identified a case of a patient who died whose profile fit the blood clots-low blood platelet-count profile. COVID cases and deaths have remained elevated in Sweden as well, as the country’s political leadership has long since abandoned its lockdown-free approach after cases soared late last year.

END

UK/VACCINE/ANTIBODY LEVELS

We would certainly except to see strong antibody levels rising with the vaccine rollout. It is the side effects of the vaccines that we are worried about.

(zerohedge)

Watch: Graphic Shows Link Between UK Vaccine Rollout And Rising COVID Antibody Levels

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 05:45 AM

Thanks to the emphasis placed on preparation by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the UK and the NHS are leading the developed world in the race to vaccinate its entire adult population.

Meanwhile, Europe is falling further and further behind as questions about the safety of the AstraZeneca jab (which is still being used in Britain) have slowed the rollout on the Continent, where fewer than 1 in 10 adults have been vaccinated.

To help illustrate how vaccination campaigns are translating into growing immunity levels, a correspondent with the LBC has shared an interesting graphic created by British health authorities.

Crucially, the improvement in immunity among patients in the older age ranges (above 70) shows the efficacy of the UK vaccine rollout, which has depended not only on the AstraZeneca jab, but the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech jabs as well.

In other news, Public Health England’s March report on the vaccination plan was released on Wednesday (following some grumbling by reporters). As it says in the report, PHE is “monitoring the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines using existing surveillance systems and studies as well as new enhanced surveillance.”

Bottom line from that report: Even a single dose of the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccines helps reduce the incidence of both severe illness and hospitalizations,

Even a single dose also helps lower mortality.

Looking ahead, only adults – or at least those 16 years and older – are cleared to be vaccinated right now. But the first trials of the Moderna jab on patients younger than 16 started earlier this week in the US.

END
EU/ASTRA ZENECA VACCINE
Astra Zeneca claims that its jab is save after reviewing the huge number of clot claims. What we are worried about is what happens in one or two years down the road.
(zerohedge)

Top EU Regulator Shares Results Of AstraZeneca Jab ‘Safety Review’ After Blood-Clot Claims

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 08:05 AM

European leaders have insisted they are ready to re-start the distribution of AstraZeneca jabs (assuming their citizens are still willing to accept them) following a safety review by the bloc’s top regulator. Well, that “review” has just ended, and the EMA is preparing to release the findings about the vaccine safety in just a few hours, as the WHO and AstraZeneca continue to insist that the benefits of the vaccine far outweigh any rare side-effects (even if those side effects might be deadly for some).

According to media reports, the EMA’s committee of experts is due to release its findings later on Thursday.

Earlier this week, some two dozen countries including Europe’s three largest economies – Germany, France, Spain and Italy – suspended immunizations using the AstraZeneca-Oxford jab following myriad reports of unusual blood clots in a small number of people. Some regulators are suspicious of a link between the clots and patients with low blood-platelet counts. Though the EMA and WHO have insisted that more than 17MM people have received the AstraZeneva jab, with the vast majority of them exhibiting few, if any, side effects.

AstraZeneca said earlier this week that it carried out a careful review of its COVID-19 immunization data and found no evidence of any increased risk of blood clots in any age group or gender in any country. But understandably, the company’s study has done little to quell concerns in Continental Europe, where fewer than 1 in 10 adult have received their first COVID jabs.

During a Tuesday press conference, EMA executive director Emer Cooke explained that the agency’s top priority was delivering a safe vaccine and that it would consider issues including if extra warnings needed to be added for the AstraZeneca vaccine.

She also pointed to the daily death toll COVID-19 is continuing to take across the Continent, and insisted that vaccines like the AZ jab are the only hope for a solution.

“We are worried that there may be an effect on the trust of the vaccines,” she said. “But our job is to make sure that the products that we authorize are safe and we can be trusted by the European citizens.”

The pause in vaccination using the AstraZeneca shot comes as COVID-19 is surging across the continent and as Britain is expecting major delays in its vaccine deliveries. Tens of thousands of new daily cases have prompted new lockdown measures in Italy, caused hospitalizations in France to spike and led German officials to announce that a third wave of COVID-19 has begun.

German Government spokeswoman Ulrike Demmer told reporters in Berlin on Wednesday that while she understood some might be worried by the review, it should be seen as a sign that “trust in our control mechanisms is justified.” The comments reflect all the warnings from bureaucrats and scientists that the halts will irreparably harm public faith in vaccines.

“That’s why this step could also strengthen trust” in the vaccines, she said. “Concerns are taken seriously and examined. And as soon as these concerns are cleared up, a vaccine can be used again without hesitation.”

A spokesperson for Germany’s top health authority said the EMA decision will be “binding”. Leaders from Italy and France have given similar promises.

Still, since there are no long-term data on any of the COVID-19 vaccines, we suspect European authorities will continue to take extreme caution while investigating any any potential signs of trouble.

end
Norwegian Dr claims to have found the link between AZ’s vaccine and rare blood clots: in essence the vaccine triggered a strong immune response on proteins to cause the clots.
(zerohedge)

Norwegian Doctor Claims To Find Link Between AstraZeneca Vaccine And Rare Blood Clots

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 08:52 AM

As we wait for the EMA’s decision, a top Norwegian health official tasked with investigating a series of three high-profile cases of health-care workers under the age of 50 being hospitalized for similar cases of rare blood clots after receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine have proposed a theory that’s bound to infuriate AstraZeneca, along with the EMA and WHO.

Chief physician and professor Pål Andre Holme told Norwegian papers on Thursday, just hours before the EMA was set to release the findings of its promised “safety review” (which was conducted even more hastily than the initial vaccine studies), that he has a new theory about what caused the reactions in the health workers, and unfortunately, per Holme, the AstraZeneca jab acted as the trigger.

“The reason for the condition of our patients has been found,” chief physician and professor Pål Andre Holme announced to Norwegian national newspaper VG today.

He has lead the work to find out why three health workers under the age of 50 were hospitalized with serious blood clots and low levels of blood platelets after having taken the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine. One of the health workers died on Monday.

The experts have worked on a theory that it was in fact the vaccine which triggered and unexpected and powerful immune response – a theory they now believe they have confirmed.

“Our theory that this is a powerful immune response which most likely was caused by the vaccine has been found. In collaboration with experts in the field from the University Hospital of North Norway HF, we have found specific antibodies against blood platelets that can cause these reactions, and which we know from other fields of medicine, but then with medical drugs as the cause of the reaction,” the chief physician explains to VG.

Though he acknowledged the theory was just that – a theory, Holme insisted there was nothing else that could have triggered such an intense immune response in all three patients. The vaccine was the only common factor.

When asked to clarify why he says “most likely” in the quote, Holme confidently responds that the reason for these rare cases of blood clots has been found.

“We have the reason. Nothing but the vaccine can explain why these individuals had this immune response,” he states.

VG also asks how Holme can know that the immune response is not caused by something other than the vaccine.

“There is nothing in the patient history of these individuals that can give such a powerful immune response. I am confident that the antibodies that we have found are the cause, and I see no other explanation than it being the vaccine which triggers it,” he responds.

In an attempt to explain to readers why they should care, Holme concluded: “We’re talking about relatively young people that have become very sick here, and died, that probably wouldn’t have got such a serious case of Covid.”

Notably, the Norwegian Medicines Agency doesn’t wish to comment on the conclusions from Oslo University Hospital: “We have to look at the results first, I don’t want to comment on this now,” said Medical Director Steinar Madsen in a statement to the Norwegian News Agency.

More than 2 dozen cases of the rare blood clots have been reported, by local authorities have pointed to a potential link between patients with low blood-platelet counts. Still, after about 10M doses, the number of confirmed blood-clot incidents is just over 25. Those are some pretty low odds.

For those confused about the nature of the problem, Dr. John Weiner breaks it down: the issue, as Holme explained, is a specific type of dangerous clot that has occurred.

Not that the “abundance of caution” approach isn’t warranted. After what happened last year as big tech censored anybody speaking out against the official COVID narratives on masks and lockdowns, we wonder when Twitter and Facebook will move to censor Holme. Notably, it appears the international press has seemingly passed on the story, despite more reports of blood clots hitting Thursday morning as we await the EMA report.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/USA

Russia recalls its ambassador after Biden stupidly calls Putin a killer. Biden states that Putin will pay a price for meddling in USA affairs (re computer hacking)

Russia Recalls Its Ambassador After Biden Vows Putin Will “Pay A Price” For Meddling

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 07:20 PM

Just a day after the public release of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s report alleging that Vladimir Putin ordered Russian agencies to conduct ‘influence operations’ during the 2020 election in order to ‘boost’ Trump at the expense of Joe Biden, an angry Kremlin has summoned its ambassador to the US back to Moscow for “consultations”.

“The Russian ambassador in Washington, Anatoly Antonov, has been invited to come to Moscow for consultations conducted with the aim of analyzing what should be done and where to go in the context of ties with the United States,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement Wednesday.

 

Ambassador Anatoly Antonov, via Sputnik

Of note is that the statement emphasized Moscow hoped to prevent an “irreversible deterioration” in relations – something that appears to be increasingly difficult given President Biden’s interview also published Wednesday morning wherein the president vowed Russia will “pay a price” for “meddling” in US elections. Biden further agreed with ABC interview host George Stephanopoulos that Putin is a “killer”.

Here’s the most controversial part of the interview which aired early Wednesday:

Asked whether he believes Mr Putin is a “killer” in a pre-taped interview that aired on Wednesday, the president responded: “I do.”

“The price he’s going to pay, you’ll see shortly,” he said.

Mr Biden recalled meeting Mr Putin, during which he reportedly told him that he “doesn’t have a soul”: “I wasn’t being a wise guy.”

“He looked back at me and said, ‘We understand each other’,” Mr Biden said.

CNN is also reporting sanctions are likely coming as soon as next week, which will specifically target “people close to Russia President Vladimir Putin.”

Biden during this latest bombshell interview had claimed he know’s Putin “relatively well”.

Biden recounted to Stephanopoulos that during a “long talk” with the Russian leader, he informed his Russian counterpart,”I know you and you know me. If I establish this occurred, then be prepared” — speaking of the election meddling allegations and the potential for sanctions.

As for how Russia might reciprocate, it has very limited options – given especially the Kremlin no doubt senses that the Democratic administration is in large part playing to its base – the same which hyped and bought into the now long deflated ‘Russiagate’ narrative which persisted through the Trump years. This means Washington seems ready and willing with finger on the sanctions trigger to escalate things in a tit-for-tat fashion.

end

IRAN/USA/ISRAEL

Iran’s defense ministry warns its citizens to prepare for a nuclear and chemical attacks.

(Dave DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

Iran’s Defense Ministry Warns Citizens To Prepare For Nuclear & Chemical Attacks

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 11:00 PM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

On Tuesday, Iran’s defense minister said the country must be prepared to face nuclear, chemical, and biological attacks.

“We should be prepared to defend our nation against all threats and whatever the enemy may one day use as an offensive tool, including chemical, nuclear and biological weapons,” said Gen. Amir Hatami, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency.

Hatami made his comments on the 33rd anniversary of a chemical weapons attack by Saddam Hussein on Iraqi Kurds in Halabja, Iraq. During the Iran-Iraq war that raged from 1980 to 1988, Hussein frequently used chemical weapons against Iran, sometimes with US support.

Declassified CIA documents revealed that in 1988, the US shared intelligence with Hussein to show the location of Iranian troops, knowing he would use lethal gas against them.

The documents revealed the US had firm evidence Hussein was using chemical weapons as early as 1983.

The US and other Western countries provided Hussein with materials to make chemical weapons at the time. A 1994 congressional inquiry found that US companies shipped anthrax and dozens of other biological agents that could be used to make chemical weapons to Iraq during the war.

Besides Iran’s history of being targeted by chemical weapons, Iran is also constantly threatened by Israel, the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East.

While Israel frequently takes covert action against Iran, Israeli officials have been hinting at a larger attack on Tehran’s civilian nuclear program if the US returns to the Iran nuclear deal.

END
ISRAEL/SYRIA/TURKEY/RUSSIA
It starts again: Israel is back with airstrikes. Meanwhile Turkey is struggling to salvage some of its smuggling oil business.
(SouthFront)

Israel Is Back With Airstrikes As Turkey Scrambles To Salvage Some Oil In Syria

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 02:00 AM

Submitted by SouthFront

As has become customary in recent weeks, after the relative success of the Axis of Resistance on battlefields across the Middle East, Israel delivered a reminder of its interest in Syria. On March 16th, Damascus’ air defense repelled a missile barrage, which was heading towards targets surrounding the Syrian capital.

A statement by the Syrian Arab Army said that the missiles had been launched from the direction of the occupied Golan Heights and targeted undisclosed positions around Damascus. Most of the missiles were reportedly intercepted and no casualties were observed. There was minimal damage.

Strikes such as these are commonplace and happen somewhat regularly, especially now in 2021, when Tel Aviv considers its interests under even more threat than usual due to the Biden Administration’s relative passivity towards Iran.

The Israeli strike was not the only attack on Damascus in recent days. On March 15th, Syrian security forces foiled a terrorist attack intended to target unspecified areas in Damascus. As a result, three terrorists were killed and three were arrested. All six were wearing explosive belts.

Separately, in what is likely a positive development for Damascus, Russian forces moved into an oil field and gas field in the northeast Raqqah governorate.

Russian military reinforcements alongside units from the Russian-backed Fifth Armored Division arrived at al-ENDThawra oil facility which produces around 2,000 bpd.

Earlier, on March 12th, Russian forces entered the Toueinane gas field, also in the same area.

This is a small, but notable shift highlighting a change in the balance of power in northern Syria. Since Russia is allied with Damascus, prior to that most of Syria’s oil went to the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces or various Turkish proxies.  Most of the oil still goes out of Syria, but this is a movement in another direction.

In addition, Russia’s Defense Ministry said that Turkish forces are carrying out military movements and acts in Raqqa countryside in violation of a Memorandum of Understanding that Ankara signed with Moscow.

According to a statement, the Russian side is extremely worried about transporting military equipment affiliated to the Turkish armed forces and establishing fortifications and support points in the suburbs of Ain Issa.

This is an attempt at a Turkish response to recent shelling by the Syrian Arab Army in the area surrounding Aleppo, and other positions where Turkish proxies operate. Ankara can’t afford to lose access to all of its cheap oil, and as such needs to provide some semblance of resistance before losing access to it.

END

TURKEY

Turkey was in a catch 22, inflation was roaring due to higher energy costs. So Erdogan decided to raise interest rates by a full 200% to 19% which stopped the bleeding in the value of the Lira.  However this will kill their economy

(zerohedge)

Lira Soars After Turkey Shocks Markets With Whopping 200bps Rate Hike

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 08:03 AM

While the Fed is caught in a fiasco of its own making, predicting a golden age for the US while keeping rates at zero for at least another two years because – you see – the soaring inflation that has swept across the country is only temporary, Turkey has no such problems and with the country facing its own inflationary conflagration, moments ago the Turkish central bank (CBRT) resumed raising interest rates after surging oil prices and lira volatility sent inflationary risks climbing pushing the lira in a tailspin. Not surprisingly, the lira surged in kneejerk response.

The Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Naci Agbal – who was appointed not too long ago after Erdogan voiced displeasure with his predecessor for hiking rates, lifted the one-week repo rate to 19% from 17% on Thursday, smashing the 100-basis-points hike predicted in a Bloomberg survey of 24 analysts.

Considering the upside risks to inflation expectations, the bank has decided “to implement a front-loaded and strong additional monetary tightening,” it said in a statement that is guaranteed to enrage Turkey’s dictator.

“In a challenging context of domestic business and political pressure against further interest rate hikes, the CBRT has stepped up to the plate and delivered a resounding home run to underline its commitment to an inflation-targeting framework,” said SocGen EM strategist Phoenix Kalen. Today’s move “will go a long way toward bolstering both retail and foreign investor confidence that the CBRT under Governor Agbal will stay engaged in addressing deterioration in inflation expectations.”

Maybe… or maybe it will just force Erdogan to replace yet another CBRT governor.

The lira soared as much as 2.3% higher to 7.3268 after the announcement.

Unfortunately for Turkey – whose economy will now grind to yet another halt –  it had no choice: inflation had accelerated for a fifth month in February as oil rallied and the impact of last year’s lira weakness lingered, while capital outflows soared. The upward trend fueled expectations the central bank would try to rein in prices by raising interest rates… but nobody had expected a 200 bps rate hike.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, the recent depreciation of the lira, which has lost more than 8% against the dollar since mid-February, is also putting pressure on Agbal. The currency’s weakness is mostly related to the spike in U.S. Treasury yields, which has triggered a developing-nation currency selloff.

So heading into today, the CBRT head was damned if he did and damned if he didn’t: on one hand the lira was plunging angering Erdogan, so he had to stabilize it… on the other the only way to do so was by hiking rates, which would anger Erdogan even more.

After taking over in November, Agbal ended a complicated funding structure and hiked the one-week repo rate by 625 basis points, boosting the bank’s credibility among investors. Despite the recent decline, the lira has strengthened around 14% under his watch, as expectations grow that Turkey’s returning to more orthodox monetary policy. He stood pat in the first two meetings of this year, opting for hawkish messages. The governor has pledged to maintain a tight monetary policy stance until he meets his 5% inflation target, no earlier than 2023. It is unclear if, like Powell, Erdogan will have the patience of waiting that long.

As Bloomberg reminds us, the Turkish statistics agency will publish March inflation data on April 5 which should be another doozy.

END

6.Global Issues

Michael Every on the day’s big stories:

(Courtesy Michael Every)

Rabo: Yesterday Was Some Kind Of Macabre Monty Python Sketch

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 10:40 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Baked Alaska

So yesterday was not the Fed-dy bears’ picnic. Rather, like some kind of macabre Monty Python sketch, the bears all turned up in their nice little waistcoats and boots…and were then devoured by the sandwiches. As Philip Marey covers here, the FOMC did not move the median dot plot expectation towards a rate hike in 2023, as had been the whisper, even if there was movement in that direction. The whipsaw result was a drop in US 10-year yields, a surge in equities, and a large (near 1%) swing lower in USD vs. many FX crosses. Of course, the sandwiches have only won a single victory over the bears. More bears will be back – and this time with mustard and pickles and Sriracha sauce.

Indeed, perhaps the most interesting thing is that the Fed, always relentlessly upbeat on the US economy, does not seem to see any sustained inflation. That’s a view that must ultimately require a sceptical view of both current fiscal stimulus, and a far deeper understanding of US political-economy dynamics than any Fed speaker I have ever heard refer to. I doubt the Fed are suddenly reading Marx or Kalecki, even if Gramsci is making more and more appearances.

As the sandwiches strut their stuff, don’t forget that ultra-easy Fed and US fiscal policy, and the kind of USD move we saw yesterday, both help push up global commodity prices, including of much of the stuff that goes into a picnic. A recently released report –(“Biblical, Lean, and Mean”)– discusses hypothetical global scenarios that could play out if we saw agri commodity prices do even a little of what oil prices did in the 1970s: in short, ‘Yom’ Kippur moved us from a highly-regulated to a deregulated neoliberal global world, so could a ‘Yum’ Kippur help swing us back the other way? Oh, and energy prices themselves are also trending higher.

(By contrast with the Fed, and showing the realpolitik of the global economy, key food producer Brazil just raised rates 25bp to 2.75%.)

For those who think the answer is automatically ‘No’, consider what’s going on with virus vaccines. As the Eurosceptic Daily Mail reports it: “the EU [yesterday] effectively declared vaccine war on the UK by threatening to block exports of Pfizer’s jab.” That as the EU’s Von der Leyen again stated all options are on the table, including blocking exports from private companies based in the EU to countries who have bought and paid for vaccine, but which have higher vaccination rates than the EU – which has itself been openly lobbying against one of the vaccines it does have (because it’s made in the UK, many allege; because of safety issues say others, not looking at the UK data to the contrary). Meanwhile, the UK are also accusing the EU of trying to set up a border in the Irish Sea, and food is again at the heart of that issue – though of course the loss of a favourite sausage from Northern Ireland supermarket shelves is not the same scale of crisis as Covid-19 or the scenarios discussed in our report.

But staying with food, the title of today’s Daily is ‘Baked Alaska’. For those of you unfamiliar, this is a dessert comprising a hot exterior and an ice-cream interior – which ironically was at its popular heyday in the UK during the oil crises of 1970s. So it’s red hot on the outside and ice cold on the inside: that sounds like what the Fed is trying to peddle to us…while claiming it is serving up healthy fruits and vegetables and not more sugar for Wall Street. Our view of a cold US interior recognizes how unhealthy the present recipe is, and how it will end in meltdown one way or the other, or with neoliberal capitalism being devoured entirely.

Baked Alaska is also useful when considering today will see US and Chinese officials meet in that location for a tête-à-tête. The Wall Street Journal, seeing snow and thinking it is meringue, is ‘exclusively reporting’ (leaked from the Chinese side) that Beijing will be asking the US to roll back Trump-era restrictions on Chinese firms and tariffs on Chinese goods. Other media are unexclusively reporting the US instead intends to list all of its complaints to China: about Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Chinese trade practices, etc.; and the Financial Times is reporting the US will even make clear it will no longer turn a blind eye to Chinese buying of Iranian oil. Which seems an odd area to take a tough stance over when one is also trying hard to persuade said Iranians to restrike a nuclear deal by being much less hawkish in other areas. The key message is that markets are likely to look for upside headlines, and some media will probably have sources happy to provide them – yet the underlying dynamic does not run in that direction at all.

There is an upside though: we can safely assume the meeting won’t end up with the US saying that the Chinese side are killers with no souls. Which isn’t true of US public diplomacy with Russia, for example. The Russians, who can see Alaska from their house, will be watching today as closely as the rest of us, while they “analyse future relations with Washington”.

Let’s conclude with another food producer who will be watching the US-China talks with binoculars: Australia. Today’s jobs data Down Under were their usual magical selvesWith just under two weeks until the key JobKeeper scheme ends, apparently 89.1K jobs were created in February, which is the kind of figure the US needs to see on a population-adjusted basis for its own projected magical recovery. The Aussie unemployment rate also fell from 6.3% to 5.8%! If one actually believed this data were true, then how is it in any way compatible with the RBA’s stance that rates are on hold until 2024, and that the labor market is ice cold and not red hot? Obviously, AUD is up, up, and away on the back of that Fed inaction and the local data: but are the RBA also now secretly reading Marx and Kalecki and grasping why rates can’t go up and wages never will? Come on – they prefer Marks & Spencer!

As with the Fed, they are proffering a cyclical solution to a structural problem that actually makes the structural problem worse unless the overall recipe is changed.

 

7. OIL ISSUES

oil crashes down 5 dollars today.

(zerohege)

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1942 DOWN .0041 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.07 UP 0.169 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3951   DOWN   0.0018  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2415 UP .0027 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 41 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1942 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 17.52 PTS OR .51% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 371.60 PTS OR 1.28% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,63%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 371.60 PTS OR 1.28 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.52 PTS OR .51% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSE DOWN 0.63% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 302.42  POINTS OR 1.01%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1732.35

silver:$26.17-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.734% !!! UP 9 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield  2.492 UP 7  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 91.64 UP 20 CENT(S) from  WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.26% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.11.%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.38%//DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.69 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 31 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.26% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 0.93% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1921  DOWN     .0062 or 62 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.02 UP .119 OR YEN DOWN 12  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3946 DOWN .0029 POUND DOWN 29  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 46 basis points to 1.2434

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The USA/Yuan ,CNY: closed UP AT 6.5063    ON SHORE  (UP)..

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.5051  (YUAN up).

TURKISH LIRA:  7.31  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.11%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 9 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.738 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.475 UP 5 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 91.75 UP 31  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 14.57  0.22%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 186.48 POINTS OR 1.28%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 14.30 POINTS 0.24%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 49.90 POINTS or 0.58%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 91.46 POINTS OR 0.38%

WTI Oil price;  61.72 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 65.32 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    74.17  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.44 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 44 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.26 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price f0r Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  59.15//

BRENT :  62.65

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.718..up 7 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.470 up 4 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1917 ( DOWN 65   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.87 DOWN .025 (YEN UP 3 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 91.85 UP 41 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3930 DOWN 45  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 7.31

the Russian rouble 74.33   DOWN 0.60 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 60 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2510 DOWN 123 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.26%

The Dow closed DOWN 153.07 POINTS OR 0.46%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 413.23 POINTS OR 3.13%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  21.59 CLOSED UP 2.36

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.189%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

Market ‘Punks’ Powell; Bitcoin Best As Crude Crushed, Tech Wrecked, Bonds Battered

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 04:00 PM

After one of the dovish-est of already-dovish-est Fed statements and press conference, the market is shouting a big “F**k you” to Jay Powell and his pals as both the timing of the first rate-hike and the trajectory of rate-hikes thereafter have hawkishly surged since the Fed chair stopped speaking…

Expectations for a hike by the end of 2022 are soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

And from Dec ’22 to Dec ’24, the market is now pricing in 130bps of hikes…

Source: Bloomberg

Epic fail by Powell as the market continues to call his bluff.

And Bitcoin topped $60,000 as the least manipulated indicator of fiscal/monetary madness left…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil crashed today – WTI back below $60 – down five straight days, longest losing streak since Feb 2020 and fell the most since June 2020 today…

Bonds were clubbed like a baby seal overnight after rallying back on the Powell statement. NOTE that once again bonds were bid after Europe closed…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields topped 1.75% intraday and reversed…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y topped 2.50% and reversed lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields jumped to their highest since June 20th, catching back up with gold..

Source: Bloomberg

And as bond yields surged, big-tech was battered, erasing all of the Powell gains and dragging the rest of the market down with it. On the day, Nasdaq and Small Caps were both monkey-hammered, The Dow outperformed but was still lower. Today was Nasdaq’s 2nd biggest down day since October.

The following chart is index performance from the release of the FOMC statement at 1400ET yesterday (NOTE the puke at the European open)… The Dow is unchanged from pre-FOMC with Small Caps and Nasdaq down 1.6%…

Today’s plunge in Nasdaq 100 sent it back into the red for 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Banks dramatically outperformed big-tech and are now back at their strongest (relatively speaking) since early March

Source: Bloomberg

While banks were best, energy was slammed as crude crashed…

Source: Bloomberg

ARKK sprung a big leak..

And TSLA tumbled…

FANGs were dumped…

Source: Bloomberg

Hedge Funds were likely hammered today as their biggest holdings saw serious selling pressure…

Source: Bloomberg

And with bonds and stocks down and vol higher, Risk Parity funds puked…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar jumped at the European open and US open, erasing much of yesterday’s Powell pummeling…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a stronger dollar, gold manage to hold on to gains…

 

Finally, if copper/gold are right about the way ahead for yields…

Source: Bloomberg

Then the Nasdaq faces carnage relative to Small Caps…

Source: Bloomberg

But, on the other hand, when does the bond-buying surge from foreigners hit?

Source: Bloomberg

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

 
 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

 
 

ii)Market data/USA

Philly Fed Explodes To Highest Since Interest Rates Were 14%

BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 08:39 AM

The Philly Fed Business Sentiment Indicator exploded higher in March. Against expectations of a rise from 23.1 to 23.3, it jumped by the most ever to 51.8…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest level since the Arabian Oil Crisis in 1973.

Under the hood, everything jumped except inventories…

  • New orders rose to 50.9 vs 23.4
  • Employment rose to 30.1 vs 25.3
  • Shipments rose to 30.2 vs 21.5
  • Delivery time rose to 29.5 vs 15.1
  • Inventories fell to 12.1 vs 20.0
  • Prices received rose to 31.8 vs 16.7
  • Unfilled orders rose to 21.8 vs 12.6
  • Average workweek rose to 39.7 vs 30.6
  • Six-month outlook rose to 61.6 vs 39.5

But, the surge is driven by a massive spike in the prices-paid index (which rose to 75.9 vs 54.4)

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, the mid to late ’70s were not a fun time for inflation and markets… and 10Y Yields were at 14%!!

…Brace, as either corporate profits are about to be crushed or the end customer is about to see huge inflation…

But, as Powell reassured us all, this is just transitory.

end
Over 18 million Americans are still on government jobless benefits
(zerohedge)

Over 18 Million Americans Are Still On Government Jobless Benefits

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 08:49 AM

Having bounced back above 20 million in the prior week, the total number of Americans filing for jobless benefits fell back to just ove 18 million this week… but it’s still 18 million and hasn’t improved materially for four months…

Source: Bloomberg

Initial claims worsened on the week with 770k filing for first time jobless benefits, up from 712k filing the prior

Source: Bloomberg

The increase in claims was dominated by Texas…

We assume the Texas claims will revert next week so for now this appears to be more weather-related than anything fundamental.

 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Post mortem on Powell’s FOMC: 10 yr rates will keep rising and sure enough today, they are!

(zerohedge/Englander)

Markets Relieved By Fed’s Dovish Message… But For How Long?

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 07:00 PM

Authored by Steve Englander via Standard Chartered,

The FOMC made few changes in the statement, but increased the ceiling for per counter-party overnight reverse repos from USD 30bn to USD 80bn.

The Fed’s economic projections did not include an increase in the fed funds target rate through 2023, although 7 of 18 participants did project a fed funds increase.    

Dovish message a relief to asset markets, but for how long?

Investors were very focused on this FOMC meeting to see how projections and the policy stance would be affected by the March (and to some degree the December) fiscal stimulus. We had expected the Fed projections to show two 25bps hikes in 2023; we reckoned markets were anticipating one or somewhat less than one 2023 hike and the FOMC delivered none. This was a dovish surprise– the AUD, NZD, MXN, ZAR, NOK and BRL rallied more than 1% in the first hour after the announcement. Most major currencies appreciated within a range of 0.5% to 1.0%; 10Y UST yields, which had jumped 6bps in the run-up to the meeting, came back to their opening level of c.1.62%. Inflation breakevens moved somewhat higher, while real yields fell. The combined real and breakeven moves were supportive particularly for EM FX, but also G10 FX.

Fed Chair Powell repeated that there was no discomfort with the current level of yields.

Powell also made an effort to downplay the projections embedded in the dots, while emphasizing the importance of achieving (rather than forecasting) their inflation and unemployment targets under the Average Inflation Targeting framework.

For now, investors are absorbing a message that the Fed intends to be dovish until data indicates otherwise. This might change if we get a run of strong data in the coming weeks as the US economy reopens and fiscal stimulus hits.

In the short term, the fears that the market (as well as we) had of a Fed acknowledgment of a more optimistic landscape have dissipated. But we think these could be renewed if the pace of recovery suggests that full employment may be reached faster than shown in the dots.

We expect US yields to keep grinding higher, but we also think that any USD-positive effect will be temporary, with the yield increases not enough to offset long-term USD negatives from a wider current account deficit and increased debt.

end
Quant guru, Zoltan speaks…and Treasury yields skyrocket to 1.75%. Zoltan believes that the Fed will foam the runway for the end of SLR  The treasury bill rates are now negative.  Zoltan believes that the uSA will not enter zero interest rates much but it seems that the market differs.
(zerohedge)

Zoltan Sparks Treasury Dump, Says Fed “Foaming Runway” For SLR End

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 09:35 AM

While much of the financial commentariat spent Wednesday afternoon focusing on the Fed’s useless dot plot (which focuses on a period that takes place about a year after Powell’s tenure at the Fed is over and he will be replaced by uber-dove Brainard), we pointed out a “huge surprise” (as Curvature’s repo expert Scott Skyrm put it) contained deep inside the statement – the Fed’s decision to hike the Reverse Repo counterparty limit from $30 billion to $80 billion.

Why was this significant? Because as Skyrm explained, “if the Fed wanted overnight rates higher, they would have raised the IOER and/or RRP. Instead, they raised the RRP counterparty limit” which also “implies the Fed is very comfortable with zero percent rates and maybe even negative rates.” In other words, having seen the recent drops of overnight GC repo into the red…

and 1 month bills trading as low as -0.01% this morning, the Fed decided to do nothing.

However, as that “other” repo guru, Zoltan Pozsar (formerly of the NY Fed and currently at Credit Suisse) pointed out later on Wednesday, there is another possible interpretation, a much more ominous one for those who believe that banks need an SLR exemption now, or else they will be forced to raise capital/delever/dump treasurys – in other words, lead to even more pain for Treasurys.

Zoltan begins by laying out his big picture view on the The Fed’s decision to raise the counterparty cap of the o/n RRP facility today from $30 to $80 billion, stating it was “the right move to deal with the “tsunami” of reserves that was finally unleashed this week with the disbursement of stimulus checks.

Echoing Skyrm, Zoltan then correctly notes that while the adjustment is not quite the same as uncapping the overnight RRP facility, it’s very close, “and the Fed showed a willingness today to raise counterparty caps further if need be.”

What Pozsar says next however, is quite debatable and certainly open to interpretation, especially in light of the current negative prints in 1 month bills. The repo experts claims that this “adjustment will ensure that U.S. money market rates won’t trade negative and that money funds don’t face a collateral shortage that would force them to gate inflows and deflect institutional flows to the bill market. Well, we beg to differ: why? Because one look at the chart of 1 Month T-bill today, this is clearly wrong…

… and no matter Pozsar’s conviction, which judging by the following is quite high…

Today’s adjustment also means that hikes to the IOR and o/n RRP rates won’t be necessary: rightly, the Fed fixed a quantity problem with a quantity solution; as we’ve been arguing this year, adjustments to the IOR and o/n RRP rates would have been plain ineffective to deal with the problem of too much cash relative to banks’ capacity to warehouse it and collateral supply to absorb it.

… the market obviously does not think that merely hiking RRP counterparty limits by $50BN will be enough to offset the flood in reserves.

But it’s what Zoltan said next that is what may have spooked bond traders:

In our view, the fact that the Fed made this adjustment practically preemptively – the o/n RRP facility is not being used at the moment, so there are no capacity constraints yet, while repo and bill yields aren’t trading negative yet – suggests that the Fed is “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption: ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities, and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.

This – as we have explained repeatedly – is a problem. It’s an even bigger problem because it was Powell’s soothing of the market’s frayed nerves yesterday during the FOMC Q&A when he said that he will “announce something on SLR in coming days“, that pushed yields to post-FOMC lows and sparked a surge in stocks to new all time highs.

Needless to say, Pozsar’s hint that the Fed’s SLR announcement will not be an extension of the SLR relief but an outright elimination, was quite problematic to markets which took the overnight selloff in rates sparked by a Nikkei story that the BOJ would allow long-term interest rates to move in a slightly larger range of about 0.25%, plus or minus, versus 0.2% now, and pushed it into overdrive.

Yet what is ironic, is that the market is suddenly relying on Pozsar’s forecast for the fate of the SLR even as it ignore his far more benign take on how negligible the impact of the SLR has been, as he wrote in a note from Tuesday.

Finally, how to determine if Zoltan is correct? He concludes his note by writing that “given that our call for a zero-to-negative FRA-OIS spread by the end of June was predicated on the end of SLR extension and an assumption that the Fed will try to fix a quantity problem with prices, not quantities, today’s adjustments mean that FRA-OIS won’t trade all the way down to zero or negative territory.”

FRA-OIS from here will be a function of how tight FX swaps will trade relative to OIS, but Treasury bills trading at deeply sub-zero rates is no longer a risk…

Considering that Bills are trading at subzero rates (maybe not to deep but deep enough, see chart above), the market appears to be confused: believing Zoltan that the SLR will end, but refusing to believe him that no SLR relief will not have an adverse impact on risk, something which the surge in 10Y yields has made quite clear.

end

FLORIDA/CALIFORNIA
Florida vs California re lockdown and masks
Florida the clear winner!
(ZEROHEDGE)

‘It’s Complicated’: Dems Snark At DeSantis For ‘Taking Credit’ As Maskless Florida Booms

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 04:40 PM

As Democrat lockdown governors Gavin Newsom and Andrew Cuomo struggle like drowning mice to lead their states out of ‘science’-based pandemic restrictions while embroiled in political scandals, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) – who notably did not lock down his state – is looking so good that even CNN hit pieces can’t help but give him credit for a booming economy and low COVID numbers – even if they only go so far as to call it a happy accident.

In a Wednesday article titled “A year into the pandemic, Florida is booming and Republican Gov. DeSantis is taking credit,” CNN‘s Jeff Zeleny writes:

As many parts of the country embark on an uneasy march toward normalcy, Florida is not only back in business — it’s been in business for the better part of the past year.DeSantis’ gamble to take a laissez faire approach appears to be paying off — at least politically, at least for now, as other governors capturing attention in the opening phase of the pandemic now face steeper challenges.
 
Despite far fewer rules and restrictions, Florida lands nearly in the middle of all states on a variety of coronavirus metrics. The state has had about 3% more Covid-19 cases per capita than the US overall, but about 8% fewer deaths per capita.

If you look at what’s happening in South Florida right now, I mean this place is booming. It would not be booming if it was shut down,” DeSantis said last month as tourist season began to heat up. “Los Angeles isn’t booming. New York City’s not booming. It’s booming here because you can live like a human being.”

California, meanwhile, refuses to disclose the COVID-19 data they used to determine when lockdown orders are implemented or rescinded, while at least two judges and the Supreme Court have invalidated lockdown orders due to a lack of science, or challenged pro-lockdown rulings by lower courts, and several sheriffs of large counties have openly rebelled against Newsom’s edicts.

Newsom even issued a racial “equity requirement” that must be met before counties can move down a tier in lockdown restrictions.

DeSantis, on the other hand, has the wind at his back – as Florida enjoys an unemployment rate of just 4.8% compared to 6.8% in Texas, 8.8% in New York and 9% in California. Meanwhile, Florida has recorded around 9,200 COVID cases per 100,000 people and 150 deaths per 100,000 people, while nationwide there are an average of 8,969 cases and 163 deaths per 100,000 people.

“Those lockdowns have not worked. They’ve done great damage to our country,” he said at a Tallahassee press conference. “We can never let something like this happen again. Florida took a different path. We’ve had more success as a result.”

“We still have millions of kids across this country who are denied access to in-person education,” he added. “We still have businesses closed in many parts of this country. We have millions and millions of lives destroyed.”

CNN even took notice of the youngest governor in the nation’s political windfall.

With spring on the horizon, DeSantis suddenly appears to be in a position of strength compared to some of his fellow governors, including many of whom took far more restrictive approaches to the fight against coronavirus that caused a trickle-down effect on the economy.
 
He is not facing a potential recall like California Gov. Gavin Newsom,under investigation like New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo or being second-guessed for lifting a statewide mask mandate like Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.
DeSantis continues to rack up points with Florida Republicans, announcing on Wednesday that Florida will “expressly exclude…Critical Race Theory.”
 
Newsom, meanwhile, is going on “The View” and making misleading statements about COVID-19 stats while trying to frame recall signatories as white supremacists and QAnon followers.
 
Counterproductive’
 
With the left unable to poke holes in the actual data, some are now saying it’s a waste of time to compare Florida with other states.
 
“What I’d love to ask about Florida is, if we had done things differently in Florida, what would it have looked like?” asks Jason Salemi, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of South Florida College of Public Health, who says that comparing states “complicated and often counterproductive.”
 
“If you use those metrics of where Florida is relative to a lot of other states, we’re looking middle of the pack. So no, it hasn’t been a disaster in that we’re leading in mortality per capita in cases per capita,” he continued, adding “It’s not always about doing well relative to your peers. It’s how can we prevent as much morbidity and mortality from the virus while keeping an eye on what’s happening with our economy.”
 
And what would they be saying if Florida was doing worse than California and New York?
 
end

It’s The Debt, Stupid!

Tom Luong on on the stupid Biden policies on lockdwons killing the economy

(Tom Luongo)

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 08:21 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns,

Nearly thirty years ago Bill Clinton won the presidency with four simple words which summed up the failures of Bush the Elder’s administration…

“It’s the economy, stupid.”

In January, Joe Biden took office in the wake of a ‘pandemic’ which devastated the global economy.  And to the best of my ability to parse, Biden believes COVID-19 more dangerous to America than the damage to its economy our response created.

It’s hard to parse anything Biden says because on the best of days he’s mostly incoherent. 

But the divide along partisan lines engendered by COVID-19 are deep. It emboldens him and the Democrats to extend the narrative that COVID is more dangerous than a broken economy for as long as possible, using it to exercise unprecedented power in U.S. history.

Biden has asked for a national mask mandate as a kind of Works Project Administration for the 21st century.  Let’s all come together in fear to beat the virus by destroying what’s left of the middle class and the Constitution.

Nowhere is that divide more pronounced now than in seeing which states have followed Florida and North Dakota’s lead in refusing to go along with the fear.  In the past week important states like Texas and Missouri have seen their governors lift occupancy restrictions on buildings.

They have opened their states while openly defying Biden and the media’s continued insistence on being afraid of the virus. 

There’s an infinite gulf between respecting the power of something and living in fear of it.

That message applies equally to any health emergency as well as our governments.

But so much damage to the psyche of America has already been done.  I see it all the time living in Florida.  I see it on the faces of the people coming in from the locked-down states.  They are afraid to walk freely.

They look like they were just released from prison.  Because they were.

Frankly, they’re a bit freaked out about how casual we are about the whole thing.  And this isn’t to say we don’t still respect the virus.  But we won’t let it consume us with fear.

Fear is the antithesis of liberty. 

Fear makes people crazy.  It robs them of their reason and allows unscrupulous politicians to run wild stoking it for their own cynical purposes.

And the cynical purpose du jour is the World Economic Forum’s Great Reset. It intends to destroy the current economy and build it back better by taking total control over the flow of capital via surveillance and digital money.

They sell this to their constituency as a sustainable and green economy, an equitable one built on the false premise that capitalism is unfair.

Which brings me back to Bill Clinton and his four words that won the presidency back in 1992.

Politically, the Democrats are committing hari kiri continuing this fear campaign.  Most people don’t want to live in fear.  Most people went along with this out of politeness, not ideology.

They are fleeing the states with the most draconian laws concerning COVID.

Their businesses are gone.  Their children depressed if not suicidal.

The fear is a narrative to mask the real problem we’re facing, which the World Economic Forum and the Democrats know all too well.

The unsustainability eating away our economy isn’t a function of capitalism’s rapaciousness, it’s a function of debt.  While debt has its place in any good economic system, it’s use is also a two-edged sword.

It’s supposed to be used when you can properly price the risk of an investment and borrow money at a rate lower than the investment’s rate of return, in essence sharing the profit of the enterprise with the person who loaned you the money.

Debt is the thing we’ve used to pay for all these social promises made by Bill Clinton and those who came after him. 

The debt incurred for buying social welfare, a massive military and over-educating our children indiscriminately because these things are unequivocal societal goods without limit reflects the main failing of the U.S. political system.

And the Biden administration is still trying to sell us on these ideas when it’s clear the bills are due.

Debt is the thing choking off any prospect of growth, post COVID.  This knowledge is what animates the Millennial generation to strange acts of rebellion like creating a short squeeze on Game Stop’s stock and bidding up the price of Bitcoin.

The debt in the West, including Europe, is so large now it is impossible to even entertain ever paying it off.

So, they aren’t even going to try.

Every day that Congress passes another stimulus package or another pork-filled budget, is another day in which we reach the point where we’re issuing new debt to service the old debt.

Paying our societal Visa bill with our Mastercard and hoping no one notices.

That’s why there’s all this worry today over rising interest rates.

Rising interest rates in a healthy economy are supposed to be a sign of recovery, of the economy getting back on its feet because the demand for dollars is rising and the expected return on investments is rising as well.

But that doesn’t jibe at all with the “COVID will kill us all” narrative.  Even with the promise of vaccines they won’t let go of the fear.

Now the CDC comes out and tells us we can act normally in our homes if we’ve been vaccinated, but not in public.

Do they not understand how insane they sound?

Biden and the Democrats want to have it both ways.  They want the promise of oceans of stimulus money to spark a new investment boom after destroying our livelihoods while telling us to stay locked up in our homes.

For the layman who only knows he has rent to pay, workers on leave, customers going bankrupt and children not getting educated, he doesn’t care about any of the grand dreams of politicians and oligarchs.

He looks at the people in Texas and Florida and says, “Something’s not right here.”

And we here in Florida look at them and go, “Yeah, and it ain’t us, y’all!”

Because it isn’t a recovery we’re now facing, even though major states like Florida and Texas are operating close to normal now.  It’s a loss of confidence in the people in charge of this insanity.

Because interest rates also rise when the investors, the buyers of the debt, look at the landscape and say, “Nope, I need a better return than 1% on ten-year money because I don’t think you’re likely to pay me back.”

That’s what has the Biden administration spooked right now.  The fear they are projecting onto us via COVID-19 is really their fear that we’ll stop believing a word that comes out of their mouths.

When that day comes, likely sometime later this year, rates will rise in such a way that no amount of money will control.  So, no matter how much they try to buy us off with free money they’re just putting off the day when they will be the ones that pay the price.

*  *  *

 
THE BORDER CRISIS
a TOTAL MESS
(ZEROHEDGE)

With 13,000 ‘Kids In Cages’, We Remember When Biden Vowed To “Flood The Border” When Elected

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 05:40 PM

As Congressional GOP push the line that President Biden created the current border crisis thanks to his early executive actions on immigration and a ‘pathway to citizenship,’ and White House officials insisting it isn’t a crisis, let’s first take a trip down memory lane and review what Biden said during the first Democratic primary debate.

In response to a question on immigration, Biden said that he would make sure there would be an “immediate surge to the border.” While it’s unclear from his answer who exactly would be doing the surging, he also insisted that ‘people seeking asylum deserve to be heard.’

Fast forward to today, as the border crisis – which is exactly what it is – worsens:

As Summit News’ Steve Watson detailed earlier,the crisis at the border continues to accelerate, as CBS News reported Tuesday that there are now more than 13,000 unaccompanied migrant children being held in prison like cells by US authorities.

The report notes that many more are being turned back every day, and that there are now so many trying to cross the border that the US is on track this year to encounter more illegal immigration than in the past TWENTY YEARS.

The kids are being held in squalid conditions, sleeping on concrete floors without any sunlight for up to five days, according to the report, well over the legal limit of 72 hours.

When asked again yesterday if he has plans to go to the border, Biden replied “not at the moment”.

Kamala Harris, who decried “babies in cages” during the presidential campaign, also avoided the issue telling reporters as she traveled “I haven’t been briefed on anything today about it.”

Thousands of migrant children are set to be housed at the Dallas convention center, with talk of juvenile centers also said to be being prepared:

The new revelations come as DHS head Alejandro Mayorkas announced an EXPANSION of the Central American Minors program, which he said “creates a lawful pathway for children to come to the United States without having to take the dangerous journey. Under this expansion, children will be processed in their home countries and brought to the United States in a safe and orderly way.”

In other words, the Biden administration is opening the floodgates even further, which will do nothing to stem the flow of migrants who believe they can now walk into the US unhindered.

In fact it will encourage more illegal immigration.

The New York Times reported that migrants are gathering in huge numbers at the border because they expect a Biden presidency to mean they will easily be able to get across.

“Biden promised us that everything was going to change,” one of the migrants, Gladys Oneida Pérez Cruz. told The New York Times. “He hasn’t done it yet, but he is going to be a good president for migrants.”

As previously reported by CBS News, just under one month ago there were only NINE children being held in Border Patrol facilities, yet now there are over 13,000.

This is an unprecedented crisis caused directly by the undoing of President Trump’s border policies and the Biden administration either refuses to address it, or blames Trump himself.

In fact, they are putting out “leaks” that reveal their intentions to continue an open border policy, with the intention to integrate 117,000 migrant youths and children this year alone.

end

“Like The Wild West”: Arizona Sheriff Says Biden Border Crisis ‘Worse Than Obama Years’

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 11:41 AM

An Arizona sheriff says that President Bidens border crisis is worse than the Obama years, as the surge in illegal immigrants hits a 20-year-high, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

Sheriff Mark Lamb of Pinal County told “Fox & Friennds” on Wednesday that it’s “ridiculous” and “unfair” that illegal immigrants – many of whom have not been tested for COVID-19 and could be carriers – are able to enter the United States unhindered while schools and businesses remain locked down in many parts of the country.

[During the Obama administration] it was like the Wild West out there in the desert on the south end of our county and we’re back to that again,” said Lamb, according to Fox News.

“Almost every time we go out we’re finding 20 people. Last Wednesday, we had 49 apprehensions in my county. So this is just as bad as it was back in the Obama days, probably worse and on target to be worse.”

Lamb also accused the Biden administration of playing the “blame game,” targeting former President Trump’s border policies as the reason for the recent surge.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Monday referred to the influx of migrants at the southern border as a “big problem” and blamed the Trump administration for an “unworkable system” — following weeks of the Biden administration refusing to call it a “crisis.”

“We recognize this is a big problem,” Psaki said during a press briefing with reporters. “The last administration left us a dismantled and unworkable system and, like any other problem, we are going to do all we can to solve it.” –Fox News

Lamb says that Biden halting Trump’s border wall has allowed Mexican cartels to smuggle people and drugs through gaps in the now-abandoned construction sites.

As Fox News notes, “In the month of February, southern border migrant encounters are up 28% from the month prior, and a staggering 174% from the same time last year,” putting the current migrant encounter numbers at their highest point since June 2019.

DETROIT/WESTIN BOOK CADILLAC HOTEL
Detroit’s landmark Westin Book Cadillac Hotel is heading to the morgue due to COVID problems
(zerohedge)

Detroit’s Westin Book Cadillac Hotel Heading For Foreclosure

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 08:40 PM

Just when you thought things couldn’t get worse for Detroit, the city’s iconic Westin Book Cadillac hotel looks like it’s heading for foreclosure.

The 33 story hotel had undergone a $180 million renovation in 2008, but has suffered mightily as a result of the pandemic. The hotel’s owner owes $77 million in commercial mortgage backed securities debt which has been delinquent since last May, Deadline Detroit writes.

Owner John Ferchill said he hasn’t been able to come to an agreement with his lender: “We are not unique. We have tried everything to work with a lender who won’t work with us, which quite frankly is a testament to how good of a property we created. They would rather take it for themselves than work it out with the borrower. We have not received one concession.”

Ferchill said “the state’s ‘draconian COVID rules'” also contributed to the decline in revenue.

The loan’s special servicer, CWC Capital Asset Management LLC, didn’t comment.

Justin Winslow, president of the Michigan Restaurant and Lodging Association, told Yahoo News: “This is a flagship hotel in the city of Detroit, and I think the frustrating reality is we’re only a couple months away it feels like at this point from demand coming back in very large numbers. To get this close to what feels like a finish line and to not be able to see it through is unfortunately, and to me, an avoidable outcome for the Book Cadillac.”

Detroit was experiencing a boom in downtown hotels prior to the pandemic. Names like the Shinola Hotel on Woodward, the Element Detroit in the old Metropolitan Building on John R and the Detroit Foundation Hotel on Larned St. were all experiencing success prior to Covid provisions kicking in.

The Westin Book Cadillac was valued at $136 million in late 2019, but as of December 2021 is being valued at $74.6 million, slightly below the loan balance owed on the property.

Winslow blames the “inflexible nature” of commercial mortgage-backed securities loans: “This was a hotel that was very profitable many years in a row and can be again once the general public feels the immediate threat is gone. I think that with (the) vaccine that is a short-term horizon before that willingness comes.”

Meanwhile, despite petitioning local government to help, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer vetoed recent legislation that Winslow said would have helped the industry in Michigan.

Winslow concluded: “That is not something I put exclusively or only at the governor’s feet because I think this is a process that requires the legislature to engage in honest negotiation to get something to the finish line that can actual help the industry. But vetoing legislation that would have had $300 million in property tax relief would have been direct relief to hotels and restaurants.”

iv) Swamp commentaries

John Kerry is such a pompous ass: He was caught not wearing a mask on a commercial flight.

(zerohedge)

American Airlines “Looking Into It” After John Kerry Busted Flying Without Mask

 
WEDNESDAY, MAR 17, 2021 – 07:40 PM

As ‘elites’ such as Gavin NewsomAnthony Fauci and President Biden continue to make a mockery of their own pandemic guidelines, Americans are getting arrested at banks, tossed from restaurants and ejected from Costco for not wearing masks. Most recently, ‘Climate Envoy’ and former Secretary of State John Kerry was busted maskless on an American Airlines flight in violation of airline policy and a Centers for Disease Control (CDC) mandate requiring them on flights.

First reported by the Tennessee Star, Kerry can be seen reading a book in first class while letting his mask hang down from his ear.

In a statement to Fox News, the passenger that took the photo – who wished to remain anonymous –  said that the president’s climate convoy was wearing his mask at the boarding gate, only to ditch it after getting on the plane before other passengers.

“I salute our Very Special Presidential Envoy for Climate for not flying private, but instead flying first class commercial with the rest of us common folk,” said the passenger, adding “And while he can’t bring himself to follow his own party’s mask restrictions, we should cut him some slack.”

“Being an elite hypocrite is hard work!” the passenger then quipped.

When asked to clarify their mask policy, American Airlines tweeted that “Masks are required on board our aircraft, and we are looking into this.”

In January, the CDC issued a mandate which kicked in last month requiring individuals to “wear masks that cover both the mouth and nose” while taking public transportation or at a “transportation hub.”

end

Michael ‘Big Short’ Burry Says He Will Stop Tweeting After SEC “Paid Us A Visit”

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 11:00 AM

Just as he was cementing his reputation as one of America’s most visible and credible market skeptics over the booming bull run in stocks, crypto, real estate etc, Michael Burry’s warnings about elevated valuations, NFTs and the risks of Weimar-style hyperinflation (not to mention “out of touch” billionaire Bill Gates) have been abruptly removed from Twitter.

Why? Because apparently the infamous “the Big Short” investor’s incendiary tweets have drawn the attention of federal regulators, according to him.

Burry posted an abrupt farewell on his twitter feed (where his following has recently swelled to hundreds of thousands of followers) claiming that the SEC had recently “paid us a visit.” Before deleting practically all of his tweets, he shared a YouTube link to a song by the punk band Suicidal Tendencies. Though Burry is known for deleting individual tweets, he left his farewell message up for all to see.

While it’s true that Burry (who runs Scion Asset Management, with an AUM just under $400M) said earlier this month that he would be taking “a break” from twitter, he seemed to have changed his mind. The SEC reportedly didn’t return Business Insider’s request for comment, so we have no insight into whether they confirmed or denied Burry’s allegations.

In the tweet above, the investor claimed his tweets directly led to the visit. Assuming his claims are accurate, why would the SEC want to silence him?

Here’s something to keep in mind, back in 2019, Burry shared a contrarian bull case for a floundering brick-and-mortar retailer called “Gamestop”. More than a year later, that bull cases was seemingly repurposed by a YouTuber using the handle “RoaringKitty” in a series of videos. We all know what happened next.

Because of this, and his legendary bet against mortgage bonds chronicled in “the Big Short” (which rocketed Burry to fame; he was portrayed by Christian Bale in the movie adaptation which received even more accolades than the book), Burry has established a reputation as one of the most well-respected – and, more importantly, most credible – contrarian market analysts, a space occupied by few others. Notably, Elon Musk once agreed to a review process to prevent him from his reckless tweeting which has at times verged on market manipulation (according to some). Though it’s not clear whether Burry’s situation is comparable, we’re certainly eager to learn more.

END

Rand Paul, an MD for Kentucky, pummels Fauci over the science behind multiple masking claiming correctly that it is just theatre

(zerohedge)

“Isn’t It Just Theater?” Rand Paul Pummels Fauci Over Science Behind Multi-Mask Mayhem

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 02:25 PM

National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci and CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky testified Thursday with other federal officials on the COVID-19 response.

In a heated exchange at the hearing on the nation’s coronavirus response, SaraACarter.com’s Annaliese Levy reports that Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul pushed back against Fauci’s claim that masks should be required for every American, including those who are already immune from COVID-19.

“There have been no reports of significant numbers of reinfections after acquiring COVID-19 naturally,” Sen. Paul said.

Paul went on to cite numerous studies that had significant evidence of long-term immunity after COVID infection.

“So rather than being pessimistic towards people gaining immunity after they’ve had COVID, or had a vaccine, studies argue for significant optimism,” Paul told Dr. Fauci.

“In fact, there have been no scientific studies arguing, or proving, that infection with COVID does not create immunity.”

“Given that no scientific studies have shown significant numbers of reinfections of patients previously infected, or previously vaccinated, what specific studies do you cite to argue that the public should be wearing masks well into 2022?” Paul asked Fauci.

“If we’re not spreading the infection, isn’t it just theater? You have the vaccine and you’re wearing two masks, isn’t that theater?”

But Senator Paul was not finished…

“You want to get rid of vaccine hesitancy?” he asked.

“Tell them to quit wearing their mask after getting the vaccine. You want people to get the vaccine? Give them a reward instead of telling them that the nanny state’s going to be there for three more years, and you gotta wear a mask forever. People don’t want to hear it and there’s no science behind it.”

Fauci was furious.

“Here we go again with the theater,” Fauci replied growing frustrated, adding “let’s get down to the facts.”

Fauci argued that the variants of the disease which are now circulating require every American to wear masks, but Paul interrupted…

“What proof is there that there is significant reinfections with hospitalizations and deaths from the variants? None in our country. Zero,” Paul replied.

“You’re making a policy based on conjecture.”

You’ve been vaccinated and you parade around in a mask for show. You can’t get it again!” Paul exclaimed.

“You’re defying everything we know about immunity by telling people to wear masks who have been vaccinated.”

Paul, who was infected with COVID-19 at the beginning of the pandemic last March, has said he is immune to future infection. As a result, he refuses to wear a mask in the Capitol and has declared he does not need to be vaccinated.

Fauci responded,

“Let me just state for the record masks are not theater. Masks are protective,” adding that “I totally disagree” with what Paul said.

Watch the full, heated ‘discussion’ here:

end

Watch: Reporters Demand To Know Why They Have Zero Access To Border Crisis

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 02:10 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

As the immigration crisis on the border worsens every day, reporters demanded Wednesday to know why they have not been given any access to facilities housing migrants, and why border officials have effectively been placed under a gag order, as reported by NBC News.

During the White House press briefing, Jen Psaki was grilled by reporter after reporter on why an administration that promised transparency is doing the exact opposite.

“It’s now been three weeks since I think in this room, you were first asked about getting us some press access. Why [have] we still not [seen] any images inside these facilities?” one reporter asked.

After Psaki provided another non-answer, the reporter continued to press.

“We’re hearing from border agents that they’re frustrated that they can’t show us what’s actually happening along the border. They can’t do ride-alongs. They can’t answer questions about what’s happening inside. Certainly, it seems like there’s an element of secrecy here. Why?”

Again Psaki avoided the question.

Another reporter followed up, asking “Is The White House or DHS instructing border agents to refuse ride-along requests from reporters?”

Again Psaki avoided the question.

The reporter continued “[We] used to be able to get ride-alongs during the Trump administration, and you all came in and promised to be the most truthful and transparent administration, and you all oversee the Department of Homeland Security. So if you all wanted to grant access to the press, couldn’t you just tell the DHS to do it?”

Like an operative on a customer service call Psaki said the reporter should ask the DHS.

When another reporter asked “Is there a limit or a cap to the number of unaccompanied minors that are going to be allowed into the U.S.?” Psaki snapped back “So should we send some kids who are 10 back at a certain point?”

“I’m not setting the policy here,” there reporter replied, adding “I’m just asking you what the Biden administration’s policy is…what the end game is here?”

Psaki reeled off some numbers and then said “Our policy continues to be, we’re not going to send a ten-year-old back across the border.”

This is an unprecedented crisis caused directly by the undoing of President Trump’s border policies and the Biden administration either refuses to address it, or even blames Trump, who has been the only president for some three decades to somewhat successfully secure the border.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

Early on Wednesday, bonds declined sharply; the US 5-year Breakeven Rate hit 2.6719%; the US 10-year note hit 1.676% and the 30-year hit 2.436%.  ESMs traded on lockstep with bonds

Deutsche Bank Analysts See U.S. Rates as High as 3% on Inflation https://t.co/mxUC3nhXO0

Sanders, Warren Want to Raise Taxes to Rein in Excessive CEO Pay [Execs want to be ‘woke’]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-17/sanders-warren-want-to-raise-taxes-to-rein-in-excessive-ceo-pay

New York’s Highest Earners Face Tax Increases Under State Proposals
Lawmakers look to raise income tax, levy surcharge on capital gains under plans that would affect people reporting more than $1 million of income
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-yorks-highest-earners-face-tax-increases-under-state-proposals-11615930180

Biden brings back welfare – The “COVID relief” bill creates a new $100 billion program that will send no-strings monthly checks to parents – whether or not they ever work. But it does this for only a year.  That’s the first of several clever ways Democrats disguised the impact of the program. It let them claim that the checks were temporary pandemic aid. By the time Democrats move to make it permanent – which they will – they hope constituents will be accustomed to getting the monthly cash
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/543072-biden-brings-back-welfare

Japan exports fall [-4.5% y/y; -0.8% exp.] as China, U.S. demand weakens https://t.co/8gpKadwCmr
FOMC Communique headlines on Bloomberg

  • Fed Keeps Rate Near Zero, Median Dot Shows on Hold Through ‘23
  • 7 of 18 Fed Officials See at Least One ’23 Rate Hike, Dots Show
  • Fed Forecast Shows 2.2% Core Inflation in ’21, 2% in ’22, 2.1% in ‘23
  • Fed Maintains IOER at 0.10%, Discount Rate Held at 0.25%
  • Pandemic Continues to Pose Considerable Risks to Outlook
  • Fed Ups U.S GDP Forecast to 6.5% in 2021, 3.9% in 2022
  • Fed Sees Inflation at 2.4% in 2021, Up from Earlier 1.8% Estimate
  • Fed Sees Unemployment Rate at 4.5% in 2021, 3.9% in 2022
  • All Fed Officials See Rates Unchanged Through 2021
  • Four Fed Officials See Rates Increasing in 2022; Seven See Rates Increasing in 2023
  • Fed Maintains $80 Billion Treasury Buying, $40 Billion MBS Buying, per Month

Bonds sank on the FOMC Communique release

Powell Press Conference Highlights

  • Some of the Worst Economic Outcomes Have Been Averted
  • Fed Will Provide Economy Support as Long as It Takes
  • The Economic Fallout Has Been Widespread
  • FOMC GDP Forecasts Have Been Revised Up Notably
  • Economic Recovery Remains Uneven and Incomplete
  • Labor Participation Rate Still Below Pre-Pandemic Levels
  • Unemployment Remains Elevated
  • Stronger Outlook Due to Progress on Vaccinations, Fiscal Stimulus
  • Not Time to Start Talking about Tapering Bond Buying
  • Fed is Eyeing Actual Progress, Not Forecast Progress
  • Fed Will Give as Much Advance Notice as Possible for Taper
  • We’ll Have Something to Announce on SLR in Coming Days
  • I Don’t Want to be Too Specific about Inflation Comfort
  • The State of the Economy in 2 or 3 Years is Highly Uncertain
  • I Would Be Concerned by Disorderly Market Conditions (Not a parody!)
  • Asset Valuations Are by Some Measures Elevated Compared to History (No Schiff, Sherlock!)
  • Not Concerned about Household, Business Debt Levels (lying or abjectly dumb?)
  • There Very Likely Will Be a Step Up in Inflation in March/April

@StockCats: it’s funny how Powell keeps emphasizing how the official unemployment rate doesn’t reflect reality but pretends the CPI does.

ESMs, Bitcoin and gold surged while the dollar tumbled after Powell said it is “not time to start talking about tapering bond buying.”

Mohamed El-Erian @elerianm: The Ultra dovish policy-related opening remarks by… Powell went one step further than the statement…

@charliebilello: Powell presser: Economy will boom & markets look great but…
-We’re not gonna raise rates for years &
-We’re gonna keep buying assets until well after it is needed b/c…
-There are no negative consequences whatsoever to any of our actions ever.
-And all inflation is transitory.

Powell’s hyper dovishness pushed ESMs to an all-time high (3973.50) at 15:08 ET.  But that was it.  ESMs, stocks and bonds then declined until an uptick at the NYSE close appeared.

Goldman, Citi Lead U.S. Banks Plowing Billions into China
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. led U.S. banks plowing billions of fresh cash into China last year, undeterred by political turmoil as the world’s second-largest economy further opens its $50 trillion financial market.
   The bank’s “cross currency outstandings” rose 33% to $17.5 billion last year in China, covering a broad array of cash and financing to companies and government entities, according to an annual filing. Together with Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp and Morgan Stanley, the five big U.S. banks had $77.8 billion in exposure, up 10% from 2019… https://t.co/8u2LF3dlIW

West Point Hosted Chair of Top Chinese Influence Org, Ran Exchange Programs with CCP-Run Colleges…also partnered with state-run Chinese universities – including institutions accused of doubling as espionage and cyberattack training grounds and Xi Jinping’s alma mater – on exchange programs…
https://thenationalpulse.com/exclusive/westpoint-collabs-with-cusef-ccp-universities/

China has been buying US politicians, businesses, executives, institutions, and US solons for years!
Former Attorney General of Kansas @PhillDKline: We know Mark Zuckerberg’s money was used to influence the 2020 presidential election to benefit Joe Biden.  Now, thanks to @JamesOKeefeIII, we’ve heard a Facebook executive claiming that Zuckerberg’s company boosted Biden by registering over 4 million new voters.  Did Facebook use its algorithms to target certain voters? Did facebook share data with a political party? If so, that would be an undisclosed campaign contribution.

Facebook Rep Boasts of Swinging U.S. Election Result, Confirms National Pulse Reporting
“We set ourselves a goal of registering four million new people, and we went over that target. We did 4.5 simply through like the presence on our, on the platform,” Thomas notes in the newly released tapes…
https://thenationalpulse.com/breaking/facebok-rep-boasts-election-influence/

BOJ May Try to Surprise by Targeting 5-Year Yield, Kiuchi Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-16/boj-may-try-to-surprise-by-targeting-5-year-yield-kiuchi-says

Today – The Bank of Japan is expected to retain its current rates policy; but the market hopes that the BoJ increases its QQE.  Powell delivered for the Street and bulls on Weird Wednesday.

SPY closed at 397.26, +1.35 yesterday.  126,754 March 400 calls traded.  108,547 March 397 calls traded.  58,568 SPY March 395 puts traded.  Traders went incontinent for SPY March calls after Powell’s uber dovish comments.  The key now is whether there is enough firepower or bullish impact news to push SPY above 400 or if the massive holdings of SPY March 400 calls will put a lid on SPY.

The usual suspects will try to force ESMs and stocks higher to complete the expiry squeeze.  The biggest hurdle for the stock market could be bonds.  ESMs are +12.50 at 20:15 ET – SPY 400 or bust!

Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 700k, Continuing Claims 4.034m; March Philly Fed 23; Feb LEI 0.3%; Powell delivers remarks at BIS Conference 11:55 ET

@Breaking911: Michigan Court of Claims Chief Judge Christopher Murray has ruled that Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) broke state law in issuing new election rules before the 2020 election     https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1372260552194539526

Someone (The Hill or WH?) doctored a video of Biden talking with reporters on Tuesday.  Early in the video, you can see Biden’s hand phases through some microphones.  This means the mics or Biden were added to the video.  What other videos of Biden have been doctored?
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1371898779922804737

@stillgray: Another angle. It just looks weird I don’t know what to say.
https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1372036625161547781
I don’t understand this video. Look at the microphones.
https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1372031436736229379

@PhilipWegmann: Biden tells Stephanopoulos he once told Putin “I said, I looked in your eyes and I don’t think you have a soul. He looked back at me and said, ‘we understand each other.'”

@disclosetv: Biden calls Putin a “killer”. The president of the Russian lower house, Volodin responds: “Putin is our president, and an attack on him is an attack on our country.”

Russia recalls its U.S. ambassador for consultations after Biden comment on Putin
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/russia-recalls-its-u-s-ambassador-for-consultations-after-biden-comment-on-putin

Biden has a history of lying and embellishing his resume.  We doubt that Biden said this to Putin.  It would be absurd and an egregious diplomatic blunder for a VP to say this to Putin.  If true, Obama, who had been sucking up to Putin and ex-President Medvedev, would have excoriated The Big Guy.

Biden, a renowned plagiarizer, appropriated W Bush’s comment in 2001 that W looked into Biden’s eyes and saw his soul.  What a dufus and liar!

Biden’s ill-conceived boasting to Stephy will harm US-Russia relations.  However, it illustrates why The Big Guy was hidden during the campaign and is being hidden now.

@JerryDunleavy: Biden says he told Putin this in 2011. All these tweets from Biden are from 2012, trashing Romney over his warnings about Putin — Biden downplayed the Russia threat to attack a political opponent & win an election. (Romney was right, Biden was wrong, Putin ultimately benefited.)
https://twitter.com/JerryDunleavy/status/1372170903736492038

Biden administration limits what Border Patrol can share with media about migrant surge at border – Restrictions on what border agents can share with the media were passed down verbally, say officials. Some have released videos of the border surge anyway.  [Imagine the outrage if DJT did this!]
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/biden-administration-limits-what-border-patrol-can-share-media-about-n1261133

@RaheemKassam: Biden 2021: “I never said they should surge the border!”  Biden 2019: “Immediately surge the border!”  https://twitter.com/RaheemKassam/status/1372237157704810500

@abigailmarone: “I would, in fact, make sure that there is, we immediately surge the border, all those people seeking asylum they deserve to be heard, that’s who we are, we are nation that says if you want to flee & you are fleeing oppression you should come.” – Joe Biden
https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1372238121094483970

Biden’s pick for deputy budget director says taxpayers need to pay for abortions for “racial justice”  https://notthebee.com/article/bidens-pick-for-deputy-budget-director-says-taxpayers-need-to-pay-for-abortions-for-racial-justice

Bloomberg’s @StevenTDennis: Cloture votes, 1957-58: *Zero* !!!  Cloture votes, 1947-1961: *4*  Cloture votes, 1973-74, Biden’s first two years in the Senate: *31*  Cloture votes, 2019-2020: *298*

Newsom accused of suggesting he’d replace Feinstein with a Black person to save face amid recall threat – The California governor clarified on Tuesday that he was answering a hypothetical question
     Feinstein, 87, told reporters on Capitol Hill on Tuesday that she had no plans to retire early…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/newsom-feinstein-comments-recall-threat

California Governor Newsom suggests one motive behind his recall effort is racist ideology
https://justthenews.com/nation/newsom-suggests-motives-behind-recall-effort-stem-racist-ideology

@BillFOXLA: Several sources within the LA D.A.’s office tell me that D.A. George Gascon is planning to dissolve or severely downsize their Hardcore Gangs unit. The unit handles the most complex & heinous gang related crimes in LA & is one of the oldest in the LA D.A.’s office.

John Kerry caught maskless on flight, American Airlines ‘looking into’ apparent COVID violation
Passenger who snapped photo tells Fox News: ‘Being an elite hypocrite is hard work!’
https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1372312364876435458
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/john-kerry-caught-without-mask-american-airlines-flight

Airline denies mom and son, 2, after he refused to wear mask [American Air, like Kerry’s carrier]
https://www.wtvm.com/2020/09/22/airline-denies-mom-son-after-he-refused-wear-mask/

@cspan [Maskless] @SenatorCarper [D-DE] chairing a hearing this morning on a train and arrived about 30 minutes later. [Masks are required on AMTRAC] https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1372196826561007624

@JesseKellyDC: None of the people telling you worry about coronavirus are worried about coronavirus.

[Biden’s nominee for associate attorney general] Vanita Gupta Supports $15 Minimum Wage While Family Business Pays Mexicans $1.30 an Hour
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2021/03/17/vanita-gupta-supports-15-minimum-wage-while-family-business-pays-mexicans-1-30-an-hour/

Well that is all for today

I will see you FRIDAY night.

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