MARCH 19/GOLD CONTINUES TO LEAVE THE COMEX: TODAY 5.0 TONNES//IN SILVER WHATEVER COMES IN LEAVES//FED LETS SLR EXPIRE AND THUS EXPECT NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES AND THIS WILL PROPEL GOLD AND SILVER//GOLD UP $8.60 TO $1742.80//SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS//HUGE ADVANCE IN GOLD TONNAGE AT THE COMEX UP TO 29.92 TONNES/SILVER ADVANCES ALSO TO 56.1 MILLION OZ//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//VACCINE UPDATES//10 YR USA TREASY RATE CLOSES AT 1.724 VERY DANGEROUS FOR STOCKS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1742.80 UP $8.60   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$26.21 DOWN  $0.08   London spot price ( cash market)

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY KITCO

PLATINIUM  $1187.00 DOWN $13.00

PALLADIUM: 2532.00 DOWN $58.00. PER OZ

Closing access prices:  London spot//GOLD AND SILVER

i)Gold : $1745.75  LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $26.23//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagles:

Even the TV pundits are now asking, without bothering to investigate, “what’s wrong with gold?” Yes indeed, what’s wrong with gold, other than a relentless daily cartel assault on PAPER gold. The physical coin premiums are widening out to spot. Gold Eagles are showing $200+ to spot, Silver Eagles $10+ to spot, if you can even find them. Supply and demand- fuggettaboutit. The more dollars printed the more valuable they become, and the more scarce gold and silver are the lower their prices go, so sayeth the Working Group.

Jim McShirley

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today 1/4 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,732.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/18/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 03/22/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1
661 C JP MORGAN 1
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 3
800 C MAREX SPEC 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 4 4
MONTH TO DATE: 8,443

issued:  0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped:  0

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR. CONTRACT:  4 NOTICE(S) FOR 400 OZ  (0.01244 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  8443 NOTICES FOR 844300  OZ  (26.261 tonnes)

SILVER//MAR CONTRACT

148 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 740,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 10,328 for 52,640,000  oz

 
 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $58,604,  UP $4589 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$58,911UP $4896    .

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD UP $8.60  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING HUGE WITHDRAWALS WHETHER GOLD IS UP OR DOWN.

IT SEEMS TO BE THAT IN GOLD, THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS ITS GOLD LEASE BACK EVEN THOUGH THE GOLD IS IN THE B OF E VAULTS.  THE RISK OF DEFAULT BY THE GLD IS TOO GREAT FOR THEM SO THEY NO DOUBT THEY ARE CANCELLING THEIR LEASES WITH GLD

(THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR SILVER AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES TO SLV)

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:A WITHDRAWAL OF: 2.04 PAPER TONNES FROM THE GLD.

GLD: 1,048.28 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND

AT 3:00 PM EST

A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.507 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

SLV: 589.931  MILLION OZ./

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 163.29 UP $0.73 OR  0.45%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 24.30  UP $0.20 OR 0.83%

Today was FOMC day and Powell did absolutely nothing to his plot for interest rate hikes.  However he did provide more room for counterparties in the REPO game.  For the past week, the volume in Rep-Treasury 10 yr was zero and the rate .01%. Now with more room for counterparty limits, the Fed is comfortable with a little negative interest rates. That should cause gold and silver to skyrocket.
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 75 CONTRACTS FROM 160,755 UP TO 160,830, AND CLOSER TO  A NEW RECORD OF 244,710, (FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.28 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON THURSDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO A HUMONGOUS BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//HUGE REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A FAIR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND A STRONG INCREASE STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR MAR. WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 870 CONTRACTS  (SEE CALCULATIONS BELOW). 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  750,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  0 MAY:  750 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 750 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 26 MONTHS.

 

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY.

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

56.140 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.28) ).. AND, OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS.  WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OUR TWO EXCHANGES (825 CONTRACTS). NO DOUBT THE TOTAL GAIN IN OI IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES WERE DUE TO i) HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.  WE ALSO HAD  ii)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A STRONG INCREASE IN STANDING FOR SILVER  FOR MAR, iii) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

MAR

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAR:

14,421 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 14,421 CONTRACTS) OR 72.105 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 961 CONTRACTS OR 4.807 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 72.105 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 72.105. MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: A STRONG: 72.105 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 120, WITH OUR TINY  $0.28 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 750 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 870 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  $0.28 GAIN IN PRICE)//

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  750 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A TINY SIZED INCREASE OF 120 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.28 GAININ PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $26.29 //THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW MAR.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 141 NOTICE(S) FOR  740,000, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3747 CONTRACTS TO 475,979, AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE  DECREASE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED DESPITEOUR GAIN IN PRICE  OF $5.40///COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY.WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG  ADVANCE IN GOLD STANDING  AT THE COMEX TO 29.992 TONNES FOR MARCH..

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.40 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A TINY SIZED LOSS  OF 344 CONTRACTS 1.069 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3403 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  3403 AND JUNE:  0  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3403.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 475,979. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 293 CONTRACTS: 3747 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3,403 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 344 CONTRACTS OR 1.069 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANG344

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3403) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (3747 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  344 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUMONGOUS ADVANCE STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE FRONT MAR. MONTH T0 29.992 TONNES3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) FAIR COMEX OI LOSS AND 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL  ...ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING THURSDAY//$5.40!!. 

WE ARE BEGINNING TO WITNESS A LACK OF EXCHANGE FOR GOLD PHYSICALS UNDERWRITTEN DUE TO PREMIUMS STARTING TO REAPPEAR IN THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD VS LONDON SPOT. THE COST TO THE BANKERS IS JUST TOO GREAT TO ENGAGE IN THESE VEHICLES ONCE THIS OCCURS.

We have now switched to GOLD for our spreaders!!

 

FOR DETAILS ON THE SPREADING EXERCISE HERE IS A BRIEF OUTLINE:

 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON NOV  1)

SPREADING OPERATION FOR OUR NEWCOMERS:

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL.

FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE NEW, HERE IS THE MODUS OPERANDI OF THE SPREADERS AND THE CRIMINAL ELEMENT BEHIND IT:

 HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 

THE SPREADING LIQUIDATION OPERATION IS NOW OVER FOR GOLD..AND WE WILL NOW MORPH INTO AN ACCUMULATION PHASE OF SPREADING CONTRACTS FOR GOLD.  THEY WILL ACCUMULATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THE CONTRACTS AND THEN LIQUIDATE ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAR. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2020 INCLUDING TODAY

MAR

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR : 57,275, CONTRACTS OR 5,727,500 oz OR 178.14 TONNES (15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3818 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 178.14 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 178.14/3550 x 100% TONNES =5.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..THUS EFP’S IN SILVER INCREASING AND GOLD EFP’S DECREASING
 
MARCH:.178.14 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN//EQUAL TO JANUARY)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 75 CONTRACTS FROM 160,755 UP TO 160,830 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING//REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A STRONG INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR MARCH., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,

EFP ISSUANCE 750 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  0 ; MAY: 750 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 750 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 75 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 750 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 825 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.125 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.28 GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 58.40 PTS OR 1.69%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 414,78 PTS OR 1.41%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 424/70 POINTS OR 1.41%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.63%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.5088 /Oil UP TO 60.22 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.42 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5088. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5115 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 
 
 
 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY FAIR SIZED 3747 CONTRACTS TO 475,979 MOVING FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $5.40 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING… WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (3,403 CONTRACTS). THE BANKERS SEEM MIGHTILY SCARED OF LONGS STANDING FOR DELIVERY BUT THEIR ATTEMPTS ARE FAILING.  ON THURSDAY’S SESSION WE NO DOUBT HAD AGAIN  1)  HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING,  2) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND 3)ANOTHER  HUGE//ATMOSPHERIC  ADVANCE IN STANDING AT THE GOLD  COMEX//MAR. DELIVERY MONTH(29.912. TONNES) (SEE BELOW) …  AS WE ENGINEERED A TINY SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 344 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE LATELY WITNESSED THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3403 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ; FEB// ’21  0 AND APRIL:  3403, JUNE:  0 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3403  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

HOWEVER, WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE. EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. LONDON IS OUT OF METAL.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A MINATURE SIZED 344 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3403 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A FAIR SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 3747 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH  (29.912 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $5.40)., AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS  AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A SMALL 1.069 TONNES,  ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (29.912 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 344 CONTRACTS OR 34,400 OZ OR  1.9069  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  475,979 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 47.59 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1480 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1480/2200 OR 67.28% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY: 133,348 contracts// volume poor  //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  275,466 contracts//  volume:  fair–/ //most of our traders have left for London

 

MARCH 19 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAR COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
 
321,510.000 oz
 
 
 
jpmorgan
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10,000 kilobars
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
malca
 
160,755.000 oz
 
Malca
 
 
5000 kilobars
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
4  notice(s)
400 OZ
(0.01244 TONNES
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
1174 contracts
(117,400oz)
 
3.651 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8443 notices
844300 OZ
26.261 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 
 
 
 
 
 
total deposit:  nil   oz
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account
i) Into Malca  160,755.000  (5,000 kilobars) 
 
total customer deposit:160,755.000 oz

1 withdrawals from  the customer account 

i) Out of JPMorgan:  321,510.000  10,000 kilobars

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
total withdrawals:  321,510.000  (10 tonnes)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 3  kilobar transactions (out of 3 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  1:    dealer to customer

Brinks: 289.359 oz  (9 kilobars)

 
 

The front month of MAR registered a total of 1178 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 88CONTRACTS. WE HAD 212 NOTICES FILED ON  THURSDAY SO WE GAINED ANOTHER MONSTROUS 124 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 12,400 OZ OR 0.3856 TONNES WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MARCH DELIVERY MONTH.  THIS IS A RECORD FOR  QUEUE JUMPING IN THE MONTH AS OUR BANKERS ARE SHORT OF GOLD AND WILL DO ANYTHING TO JUMP AHEAD OF UNSUSPECTING LONGS TO OBTAIN METAL. MARCH IS GENERALLY A NON ACTIVE MONTH BUT THIS IS SURELY NOT THIS CASE THIS MONTH. SOMEBODY NEEDS AN URGENT SUPPLY OF PHYSICAL GOLD!!!!!!!

 
 

APRIL, THE NEXT FRONT MONTH, LOST A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED 8332 CONTRACTS.WE SHOULD HAVE WITNESSED A CONTRACTION OF AT LEAST 10,000 CONTRACTS BUT INSTEAD WE LOST 7818 AMOUNT. WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A MONSTER APRIL DELIVERY MONTH IN GOLD. 

MAY LOST  5 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 417

JUNE GAINED 4426 CONTRACTS UP TO 214,079

We had 212 notice(s) filed today for 21,200 oz

FOR THE MAR 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 4  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8443) x 7503 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAR // 1178 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 4 x 100 oz per contract) equals 961,700 OZ OR 29.912 TONNESthe number of ounces standing in this  active month of MAR

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MARCH contract month:

No of notices filed so far 8443 x 100 oz  + ( 1181 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (4} x 100 oz which equals 961,700 oz standing OR 29.912 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of MARCH. This is a HUGE/ATMOSPHERIC amount standing for GOLD IN MARCH, A GENERALLY POOR NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

WE GAINED A STRONG 426 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL,42,600 OZ WILL STAND ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

WE ARE WITNESSING A FULL FRONTAL ATTACK  ON THE COMEX ON ALL SIDES AND MEANS FOR ITS GOLD.!!!!

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:  

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

339,772.427 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.5687 TONNES

312,798.505 oz  JPM  9.72 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,301,674.057 oz                                     71.59 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 491.93 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 29.912 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  18,117,367.951 oz or 563.53 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,301,674.057 oz or 71.59 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,815,683.0  (491,93 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,815,683.0 (491.93 tonnes)
 
total eligible gold: 19,424,808.565 oz   (604.19 tonnes)
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 37,542,176.516 oz or 1,167.72 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1041.38 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
MARCH 19/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/MAR

MAR. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 
942,480.811 oz
 
CNT
Brinks
HSBC
JPMorgan
 
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
594,595.942 oz
 
manfra
 
and as soon as this entered it left comex vaults.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
148
 
CONTRACT(S)
(740,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
900 contracts
 4,500,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)

 10,328 contracts

51,640,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:
 
 
 

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into Manfra  594,595.942
 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 190.684 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.32% of all official comex silver. (190.684 million/371.549 million

total customer deposits today: 594,595.942   oz

we had 5 withdrawals:

 
 
i) out of CNT 600,364.438 oz
 
 
ii) Out of  Delaware  13,456.543 oz
iii) Out of Brinks  29,853.420 
iv)out of JPMorgan: 261,251.920 moz
v) Out of HSBC: 33,554.510 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals 942,480.811   oz

thus whatever came in left in a hurry

We had 2 adjustments: i. dealer to customer

Manfra: 4717.900 oz

ii) customer to dealer: Int. Delaware  589,118.220 oz

 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 127.381million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  371.549 million oz

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MARCH saw a LOSS of 18contracts to stand at 1048. We had 41 contracts served on  THURSDAY, so we GAINED 23 contracts or an additional 115,000 oz will  stand for delivery in this  active delivery month of March. These guys refused to  morph into London based forwards as there is no silver metal on their side of the pond so they will try their luck over here. 

April GAINED AN ASTONSHING  8 contracts to stand at 2981. (It rose instead of rolling to the next month).April numbers refuse to contract (roll).  They are standing resolute !!!!Thus it looks like we will have north of 15 million oz of silver standing in a very inactive month.

May lost only 63 contracts to stand at  128,425 contracts. May is the next active month and it seems the cavalry are showing up for silver as well. Thus we have April, a non active month remaining high in oi and May as both months refuses to contract.!

Both April and May are going to be dandy delivery months. 

 

The total number of notices filed today for MARCH 2021. contract month is represented by 148 contract(s) FOR 740,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  10,328 x 5,000 oz = 51,640,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (1048) and the number of notices served upon today 148 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the MAR standings for silver for the MAR/2021 contract month: 10,328 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MARCH(1048- number of notices served upon today (148) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 56,140,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MAR MONTH.(numbers corrected from a small error yesterday)

We gained 23 contracts or an additional 115,000 oz will  stand for delivery as the refused to morph into London based forwards.

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 52,724 CONTRACTS // volume extremely poor// volumes falling off a cliff//

FOR YESTERDAY  79,816  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME// fair

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO -0.45% ((MAR 19/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO –1.68% to NAV:   (MAR 19/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/0.45%(MAR 19/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/GATA

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 18.86 TRADING 17.94//NEGATIVE 4.88

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 , NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.07 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A REMOVAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.27 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.23 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.98 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $37.40 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.44 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD  DOWN $21.00  TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.26 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.30 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.38 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.12 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $9.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WHOPPING WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.50 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65 DOLLARS; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.7 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.54 TONNES.

FEB 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.24 TONNES//

FEB 25/ WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1106.36 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD// RESTS AT 1110.44 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1115.40 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $30.00 TODAY: STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1127.64 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 18//WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1132.89 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.54 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1136.68 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORYRESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.38 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1142.20 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1146.60 TONNES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.09 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1148.34 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1152.43 TONNES.

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.80 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1156.51 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $20.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $42.05 TODAY: STRANGE: HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.34 TONNES ADDED INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1159.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.63 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1157.50 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $12.45 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1160.13 TONNES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL  OF 4.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1164.80 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.71 TONNES LEAVES THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1169.17 TONNES

JANUARY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY; A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS 1172.38 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1173.25 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

MARCH 19 / GLD INVENTORY 1048.28 tonnes

LAST;  1021 TRADING DAYS:   +114.47 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 921 TRADING DAYS// +  300.71TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; AT 3 PM: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.507 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366  MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.501 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 3.90 MILION OZ AT 5.20..: TOTAL LOSSS 10.4 MILLLLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 596.616 MILLION OZ

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 76 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.486 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.017 MILLION OZ

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.774 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 605.531 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1.WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.593 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ.

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN  $1.17 TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.857 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM//AND ANOTHER 1.858 MILLION OZ AT 5.20 EST//INVENTORY RESTS AT 615.898 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ//

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORIES AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: TWO ENTRIES I) HUGE CHANGE ISN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 127,000 OZ INTO THE SLV AND THEN A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 7.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 619.613 MILLION OZ

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 74 CENTS TODAY: 2 HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.322 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND 6.873 MILLION OF AT 5 20 PM EST/INVENTORY RESTS AT 611.685 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19//WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY : TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AN ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL 5.758 MILLION OZ// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 621.007 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP  1 CENT TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 83,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.623 MILLION OZ//

FEB 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.044 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 628.530 MILLION OZ//

FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS//A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.312 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 630.574 MILLION OZ.

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.858 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 634.986 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 17.882 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 636.844 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.53 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.451 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 654.726 MILLION OZ//

FEB 5/WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 0.54 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 10.079 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 659.278 MILLION OZ//

FEB 3/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY: A MIND NUMBING: 56.784 MILION OZ “DEPOSIT” INTO THE SLV at 3 pm AND A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.99 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 5 PM//WITH THESE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 669.357 MILLION OZ//

FEB2//WITH SILVER DOWN  $2.81 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN UNBELEIVABLE DEPOSIT OF 18.627 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 620.563 MILLION OZ//

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP $2.56 TODAY: A FAIRY TALE DEPOSIT OF 34.419 MILLION OZ INTO  SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 601.936 MILLION OZ//

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 58 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.366 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.517 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.393 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 571.883 MILLION OZ/

JAN 27/ WITH SILVER DOWN 10CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A XXXWITHDRAWAL OF 3.022 MILLION OZ OF IMAGINARY SILVER// INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.277 MILLION OZ/

JAN 26/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ///

JAN 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 2.044 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.299 MILLION OZ./

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

MARCH 19/2021
589.931 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i) LAWRIE WILLIAMS..

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Polish Central Bank to up gold purchases, but what about Russia?

According to the World Gold Council (WGC) the volume of central bank gold purchases dipped sharply in 2020 with China saying it had dropped out of its gold buying programme in late 2019, and the Russian central bank officially ceasing gold purchases in April 2020. These had been the two largest reported central bank gold purchasers in previous years and this led to 2020 officially recorded central bank gold purchases falling to fractionally short of 273 tonnes – a drop of over 395 tonnes from the 2019 level. Whether one can trust the Chinese data is uncertain given that country’s past track record in denying gold purchases, but then coming up with admitting large gold accumulations after a few years of such denials, saying the accumulated gold was held in separate accounts which did not need to be repor ted to the IMF.

One country which has announced that it proposes to up its gold reserves over the next few years is Poland. The country has been expanding its gold reserves over in recent years and they now stand at 229 tonnes, but pro- gold central bank Governor, Adam Glapinski, has reportedly stated in a magazine article that “Over the course of a few years we want to buy at least another 100 tonnes of gold and keep it in Poland as well.” This would be an indicator of the country’s financial strength. The increase in Polish gold reserves in the past few years has been a policy decision by Glapinski, which he hopes to carry through to the future if he continues in his position.

In its Gold Demand Trends report on the 2020 year, the WGC notes that Turkey was once again the largest annual gold buyer last year, adding 134.5 tonnes to its official gold reserves. This brought its total gold reserves to 547 tonnes (42% of total reserves). India, a regular purchaser since early 2018, added 38 tonnes of gold to its reserves during the year, within the 30-40 tonne range it has established over the last three years. And despite its buying being limited to Q1, Russia remained the third largest buyer in 2020, growing gold reserves by 27.4 tonnes. The UAE 23.9 tonnes, Qatar 14.5 tonnes, and Cambodia 5 tonnes also made relatively sizeable additions to their gold reserves the WGC reports.

Turkey’s gold intake contribution was actually probably far higher with other reports suggesting it actually imported over 500 tonnes of gold last year – the balance presumably disappearing into the country’s commercial banking sector. Despite being the largest buyer on an annual basis, Turkey’s central bank was also the largest seller of gold in H2 among the world’s central banks; its gold reserves declined in the half year by a net 36.3 tonnes after two chunky sales in September and November. These were its largest monthly sales since it resumed regular buying in May 2017.

But, the WGC notes, the sales did not signify a strategic shift in policy, rather they were reflective of local gold market dynamics. Higher levels of local gold bar and coin demand in the second half of the year led to increased trading between domestic commercial banks and the central bank, causing this reduction in reserves. This mechanism is part of a range of gold policy tools with which the country’s central bank manages its gold market.

The WGC went on to comment on the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on global central bank buying and selling last year, adding that Covid-19 was also a driver for some central bank sales. These were primarily concentrated among a small number of central banks that buy gold from domestic production, such as Mongolia 12.5 tonnes and Uzbekistan 11.8 tonnes. Gold’s performance during the year boosted reserve portfolios, providing central banks with additional firepower when it was needed.

The WGC further noted that some banks saw this as an opportune time to obtain liquidity to support their struggling economies. These intermittent sales have resulted in a more complex picture of central bank demand at the end of 2020, having created a small interruption in the pattern of consistent buying since 2010.

We have ourselves speculated that the Russian central bank might return to purchasing more gold, although so far it has not given any indication that it plans to do so. Our view has been that is because the cessation of gold buying – which mostly came from purchasing product from the country’s own mines – was halted to persuade Russian gold miners to sell their production on international markets. This policy arose, at least in part, because the country’s principal export earner had been the oil and gas sector and the sharp fall in the oil price last year had led to a significant shortfall in export earnings, which adversely affected the country’s balance of payments position. Gold exports would thus replace oil exports as the major earner and redress the current account position.

This year the oil price has improved by around 50% so the country may now consider itself in a position to resume gold purchases given the sharp improvement in its current account position because of the big pick-up in oil and gas revenues. Despite U.S.-promoted economic sanctions, Russia is technically in a far superior economic position to the U.S., having not run up the kind of enormous external debt the U.S. has. Russia currently runs a substantial balance of payments surplus, as compared with U.S.’s big deficit and its external debt position is at a fraction of that of the U.S.

Even so, the WGC says that it expects to see continued net buying from central banks in 2021, with purchases expected to remain at a moderate pace although below the record levels seen in some previous years. That opinion is put forward without any suggestion of the resumption of Russia resuming its gold purchasing programme which would enhance the position should it do so. The possibility of capital inflows into emerging markets, resulting in higher reserves, and the continued ultra-low interest rate environment, may thus lead to central banks adding gold for diversification purposes.

Chris Watling of Longview Economics, writing in the UK’s Financial Times, reckons the global economy is ripe for a great reset – an opinion expressed by other economists too, although what this could, or should, incorporate generates somewhat differing opinions. There is suggestion that any new reserve currency which eventuates if, or when, any global reset may occur would include gold in its make-up. Thus it makes sense that those countries which feel they should be heavily involved in what may develop, including Russia and China in particular, could be considering building their gold reserve positions accordingly.

There has always been considerable doubt about the true volume of China’s gold reserves with many feeling they could be several times the official figure of 1,948.3 tonnes putting it in sixth place globally as far as reported figures to the IMF are concerned. More credence is given to Russia’s reported total of 2,295.4 tonnes in 5th place, but both these are hugely behind the U.S.’s sometimes disputed level of 8,133.5 tonnes – and also behind those of Germany, Italy and France too, so there is reasoning behind the further building of gold reserves to enhance the Russian and Chinese positions. We shall see what develops, but there is indeed logic behind countries continuing to add to their gold reserves up until any global financial reset may take place.

19 Mar 2021

AND

PETER SCHIFF….

SHORT SZUEEZE ON FOR SILVER

(Peter Schiff)

.

Interesting COMEX Trend: Silver Short Squeeze Appears to Be On Track

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 09:40 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

COMEX is the primary futures and options market for trading metals such as gold and silver. There have been some interesting trends for silver in the COMEX in recent months. More investors are taking delivery of silver. In other words, the short squeeze may still be on track – albeit in slow motion – and this could impact the silver price moving forward.

You will recall that last month, the Reddit investors turned the spotlight onto silver. The hope was to create a short squeeze in the market by buying up physical silver. The price popped temporarily, but it appeared at the time the silver market was just too big for the Reddit Raiders to squeeze. The price dropped back and the spotlight dimmed. But looking at some trends in the COMEX indicates the squeeze might still be on.

A futures contract is a promise to deliver a certain amount of gold or silver at a certain price at a certain time. Speculators play this market, hoping to profit from a price swing. Say you buy a $26 per ounce silver contract and the price of silver rises to $28. The investor can sell the contract and make a few dollars per ounce. Generally, the trades are made on paper. They are made on the promise of that metal and on the knowledge that it exists, but traders rarely take delivery of the metal itself. About 1% of COMEX trades go to delivery.

The following analysis was submitted to SchiffGold and is published for your consideration. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

The COMEX has shown a major divergence in the silver market in recent months. For context, consider this graph. (Open interest is the total number of outstanding options or futures that have not been settled for an asset.)

The big gold and silver delivery months on the COMEX alternate. For gold, it’s February, April, June, August, October, and December. For silver, it’s March, May, July, September, and December. Historically, open interest starts out very high in these months and then drops significantly in the days leading up to the notice period (notice for delivery where you can no longer roll contracts). Below shows the last 4 March months. As can be seen, contracts start high and drop as contracts are rolled forward.

Over the last year, more and more people have been standing for delivery, meaning slightly fewer contracts get rolled forward. The current March contract has doubled any recent March. See chart below.

This delivery trend has been in place for about a year. The charts below show the outsize deliveries in Gold and Silver in 2020 and how 2021 is well on its way to beating 2018 and 2019.

This next chart shows the silver monthly deliveries over the last two years. The previous 12 months show a clear jump in the number of deliveries, especially the big months.

One thing that may have gone unnoticed is the delivery rate in the off-months. The last off-month in February had a major divergence from anything in past years. More contracts are being bought to specifically stand for delivery. In most off-months, less than 1,000 contracts stand for delivery. That started changing in February when the Reddit event occurred.  The chart below shows how the open interest moved higher leading up to first notice (it drops after first notice as contracts are set for delivery).

As can be seen in the chart, instead of a low number of contracts slowly moving toward zero, in February the opposite happened, it spiked into the final days.

To highlight the first chart again, it is clear this trend is continuing for April. Open Interest is moving up as the contract nears first notice.

It is probable that all of these will stand for delivery and there are still about seven trading days left for more contracts to be added. Again, this is not a large number of contracts relative to the big months but the change in trend is impossible to ignore. Investors are demanding more physical silver and the futures market directly reflects this. At the time of the month when open interest should be falling, it is rising instead!

As the Sprott blog commented last month, this is not going to change anything quickly. The Comex still has the supply to handle the large volumes of delivery. But at the current rate they only have roughly a year supply on hand:

Can they get more? Absolutely! But at what price? Bottom line, if this continues, it is hard to imagine the price won’t reflect the demand.

end

a must read: what shipping container shortage is telling us about the economy

(Peter Schiff)

What Is The Shipping Container Shortage Telling Us About The Economy?

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 09:20 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

As Peter Schiff pointed out during a recent interview with NTD News, America has never done worse on trade. He called it a sign that we don’t have a recovering economy. In fact, we have a phony economy in danger of collapse.

The annual trade deficit for goods came in at an all-time high in January, increasing $3.4 billion to a record $221.1 billion. In another sign of the massive trade imbalance, there is a shortage of shipping containers to bring things into the US.

In a nutshell, the Federal Reserve is printing money and the US government is giving it to unemployed people who aren’t producing anything. As Peter pointed out, “They’re buying the stuff that people in other countries are employed making.”

So, it’s the productivity of the rest of the world that Americans are living off of, and the trade deficit evidences that and shows you that our whole economy, our whole recovery, is a fraud.”

Economic research assistant Weimin Chen says stresses on the world’s shipping infrastructure uncover additional clues about the economic outlook in the US.

The following article by Weimin Chen was originally published by the Austrian Economics Center and reprinted by the Mises Wire.

Despite the record unemployment rate, widespread hardship to businesses, strains on the healthcare system, political turmoil, and general disruption to daily life in 2020, US consumers have managed to ramp up their habit of buying things. Demand for physical goods replaced some of the previous demand for in-person service-related experiences and much of that demand was met with a surge of imports from China as domestic production slowed down due to lockdown measures. Up until recently, global supply chains managed to find their footing and could meet demand, but news has emerged that reveals stresses on the world’s shipping infrastructure and uncovers clues about the economic outlook.

Container Shortage and Chinese Exports

Global logistical networks recently began to suffer from a shortage of shipping containers as demand has suddenly risen. Freight rates from China to the US have jumped by 300%. The container situation has become so extreme that hundreds of thousands of containers have been sent off empty from US ports, mostly to China as exporters demand empty containers with increasing urgency. An estimated 177,938 containers, were rejected from loading US export items at the ports of Los Angeles and New York/New Jersey alone and then sent across the Pacific.

The recent imbalance of shipping containers illustrates the latest state of affairs surrounding the US and Chinese economies. As exports of consumer goods from Asia eclipse exports of mostly commodity and raw materials from the US—in this case, even blocking US agricultural exports from having shipping containers to reach foreign markets—the trade deficit between the two countries may become more important to these highly competitive economies.

When Trade Deficits Matter

The Austrian perspective on the US trade deficit has long been that given the continued relative productivity of the US economy, foreign desires to invest in the US, and demand for the dollar abroad, the trade deficit is a ‘pseudo-problem.’ The US competitive advantage vis-à-vis other countries in recent decades has made running a trade deficit highly probable and even favorable for Americans as they enjoy the consumption of cheaper imports.

Thus far, the parties involved have been satisfied with this arrangement as US consumers bring in goods at favorable prices and producers receive a reliably stable world reserve currency: the US dollar. However, the underlying conditions particular to the US economy in relation to China may be changing. There are two aspects of the US-China trade deficit that merit attention. The first is the effect of net consumption by the US coupled with dovish monetary and fiscal policies whereas the second is what China plans to do with US dollars accumulated through exports.

On the US side of the equation, easy money from the central bank coupled with fiscal stimulus extended to consumers has juiced buying activity as the lockdowns have forced people to stay home and spend. It’s no wonder that shipping containers are rushing to get back to China. With the US taking big hits to production and foreign investment in 2020, along with explosive increases in the money supply, critical questions arise regarding the nature of this trade deficit and how long the status quo can continue as the country pushes the boundaries of its exorbitant privilege. Indeed, the health of the dollar itself as it relates to trade deficits would be an indicator to watch in coming years.

In running a trade surplus with the US, China has traditionally exchanged its US dollars for US Treasuries to add to its balance sheet and to maintain its export advantage. In recent years, however, China has reduced its holdings in Treasuries. This trend has also coincided with massive spending on the part of China in the last decade on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure and trade corridor project which involves 71 countries across Eurasia and Africa that encompass two-thirds of the global population and one-third of world GDP.

Given the continued global dollar demand, it would be shrewd for China to use accumulated dollars to acquire foreign assets and invest in projects that have the potential to generate future income. The trade war with the US in recent years has driven China to deepen its flow of trade toward surpluses with other emerging markets and forge strategic global relations.

As containers carry goods from China to the US and rush to return empty to bring more, the moment provides a glimpse into a potentially precarious arrangement between the two countries. While the US presently consumes itself into debt and liabilities, China has leveraged its productive surpluses from this relationship into increasingly influential assets that may strengthen its position and further challenge the US, and perhaps even the dollar itself.

END

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Asian gold demand rebounding as Swiss exports surge

(Reuters)//GATA

Asian gold demand rebounding as Swiss exports surge

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

From Reuters
Thursday, March 18, 2021

LONDON, March 18 (Reuters) – Switzerland in February sent gold to mainland China for the first time since September and shipments to India and Thailand rose to multi-year highs, suggesting that demand for bullion in Asia is recovering from the coronavirus shock.

Switzerland is the world’s biggest gold refining centre and transit hub, while India and China are the two biggest gold consumers and Thailand is a regional trade hub.

Demand from all three Asian countries plunged last year as the coronavirus spread and has been slowest to recover in China. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N2LG0ZH

END

My goodness, even the Financial Times (London) is promoting a “great reset”.  Note that they do not include gold/

(Watling/London’s Financial Times)//GATA

Now even the Financial Times is promoting a ‘great reset’

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

They seem to want a debt jubilee followed by a system with a solid and steady base for tts money supply, such as gold used to provide, but without dignifying the monetary metal so hated and feared by the financial elite.

* * *

Time for a Great Reset of the Financial System

By Chris Watling
Financial Times, London
Thursday, March 18, 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/39c53b9f-f443-4dde-9cdb-07e8999ec783

On average international monetary systems last about 35 to 40 years before the tensions they create becomes too great and a new system is required.

Prior to the first world war, major economies existed on a hard gold standard. Intra-wars, most economies returned to a “semi-hard” gold standard. At the end of the second world war, a new international system was designed — the Bretton Woods order — with the dollar tied to gold, and other key currencies tied to the dollar.

… 

When that broke down at the start of the 1970s, the world moved on to a fiat system where the dollar was not backed by a commodity, and was therefore not anchored. This system has now reached the end of its usefulness.

An understanding of the drivers of the 30-year debt supercycle illustrates the system’s tiredness. These include the unending liquidity that has been created by the commercial and central banks under this anchorless international monetary system. That process has been aided and abetted by global regulators and central banks that have largely ignored monetary targets and money supply growth.

The massive growth of mortgage debt across most of the world’s major economies is one key example of this. Rather than a shortage of housing supply, as is often postulated as the key reason for high house prices, it’s the abundant and rapid growth in mortgage debt that has been the key driver in recent decades.

This is also, of course, one of the factors sitting at the heart of today’s inequality and generational divide. Solving it should contribute significantly to healing divisions in western societies.

With a new US administration, and the end of the Covid battle in sight with the vaccination rollout under way, now is a good time for the major economies of the west (and ideally the world) to sit down and devise a new international monetary order.

As part of that there should be widespread debt cancellation, especially the government debt held by central banks. We estimate that amounts to approximately $25 trillion of government debt in the major regions of the global economy.

Whether debt cancellation extends beyond that should be central to the negotiations between policymakers as to the construct of the new system — ideally it should, a form of debt jubilee.

The implications for bond yields, post-debt cancellation, need to be fully thought through and debated. A normalisation in yields, as liquidity levels normalise, is likely.

High ownership of government debt in that environment by parts of the financial system such as banks and insurers could inflict significant losses. In that case, recapitalisation of parts of the financial system should be included as part of the establishment of the new international monetary order. Equally, the impact on pension assets also needs to be considered and prepared for.

Secondly, policymakers should negotiate some form of anchor — whether it’s tying each other’s currencies together, tying them to a central electronic currency or maybe electronic special drawing rights, the international reserve asset created by the IMF.

(Harvey: it should be gold)

As highlighted above, one of the key drivers of inequality in recent decades has been the ability of central and commercial banks to create unending amounts of liquidity and new debt.

This has created somewhat speculative economies, overly reliant on cheap money (whether mortgage debt or otherwise) that has then funded serial asset price bubbles. Whilst asset price bubbles are an ever-present feature throughout history, their size and frequency has picked up in recent decades.

As the Fed reported in its 2018 survey, every major asset class over the 20 years from 1997 through to 2018 grew on average at an annual pace faster than nominal GDP. In the long term, this is neither healthy nor sustainable.

With a liquidity anchor in place, the world economy will then move closer to a cleaner capitalist model where financial markets return to their primary role of price discovery and capital allocation based on perceived fundamentals (rather than liquidity levels).

Growth should then become less reliant on debt creation and more reliant on gains from productivity, global trade and innovation. In that environment, income inequality should recede as the gains from productivity growth become more widely shared.

The key reason that many Western economies are now overly reliant on consumption, debt and house prices is because of the setup of the domestic and international monetary and financial architecture. A Great Reset offers therefore opportunity to restore (some semblance of) economic fairness in Western, and other, economies.

—–

The writer is founder and chief executive of Longview Economics in London.

END

iii) Other physical stories:

John Adams discusses exposing the “synthetic” paper silver scam

a must see//

(courtesy John Adams/Martin North)

Dear Colleagues of the Silver Market,
 
I am writing to inform you that this evening I have released my latest YouTube video about the silver market which can be viewed on the “In the Interests of the People” channel.
 
You can see the show by either of the following links:
 
 
 
In this episode, my co-host Martin North and I expose the risks and dangers of ‘synthetic’ silver products (e.g. unallocated, pool allocated and ETFs) which are offered to retail investors, especially in the Australian bullion market.  
 
I understand that these products are also prevalent in Canada as well.
 
The key point in the context of silver squeeze movement which I made in this video is that if all retail investors (worldwide) who have a position synthetic silver product were to liquidate their positions and instead bought physical silver – this act would drain an enormous amount of physical silver from the global market which would in turn place significant pressure on the COMEX and London wholesale markets.
 
This in turn would assist in creating a COMEX short squeeze which would result in the price of silver breaking above the current price ceiling of $US 30 per ounce.
 
Many new retail investors have little to no understanding of the purpose and risks of these synthetic products. I would encourage you (if you agree) to share my video to your silver network.
 
The more investors who are aware of the importance of purchasing physical silver, the closer we are to conquering the COMEX price manipulation of silver.

 

 


yours faithfully,

 

John Adams

Principal Economic Analyst
Adams Economics
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video Exposing The Synthetic Silver Scam

 

end

Keith Neumeyer: Silver Shortage to Drive Price to Triple Digits – YouTube

 
 
 
end
 
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
J. JOHNSON’S COMMODITY REPORT…

https://www.jsmineset.com/2021/03/19/keep-stacking-and-packing/

 

Keep Stacking And Packing!

 

Posted March 19th, 2021 at 8:24 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

 

Great and Wonderful Friday Morning Folks,

 

      Gold is up $7.40 with the June Contract trading at $1,742 with the high at $1,746.70 with a low at $1,729.30. May Silver is down 11.1 cents with the trade at $26.24 after the dip to $25.925 with a high to beat at $26.29. The US Dollar’s value is pegged at 91.92, up 5 points with the high of London at 91.98 and a low at 91.665. Of course, all of this happened before the Comex open, the London close, during the Triple Witch Week, and while precious metals sales continue to skyrocket, more now than ever before, and thanks to a bunch of primates as well as other species who see and understand what is happening right now.

1

      Gold in Venezuela is worth 17,398.23 Bolivar proving a gain of 132.84 overnight with Silver gaining 0.40 of a Bolivar with its last buy at 262.07. Argentina’s latest price for Gold now registers an 1,187.95 increase, with the last trade at 158,858.08 Peso’s with Silver adding 4.08 to its value with the last buy at 2,393.62 A-Peso’s. Turkey’s Lira has Gold valued at 12,647.81 showing a reduction of 266.54 Lira with Silver doing the same losing 2.05 with its last price at 190.60 T-Lira’s.

 

      March Silver’s Delivery Demands remain constant with 1,048 fully paid for 5,000-ounce contracts still waiting for receipts with a Volume of 12 up on the board and a single price, $26.055, down 26.6 cents so far today. Yesterday’s full day of ICE deliveries happened in between $26.435 and $25.90 with the last purchase at $26.05 and a Comex Calculated Close tallied at $26.321, a gain of 29.1 cents on the day that had a total of 81 swaps that only reduced the demands by 18 contracts. Silver’s Overall Open Interest lost only 8 pieces of paper over the last 24 hours leaving a total of 160,876 Overnighters willing to monkey around the Comex while Silver is being removed at every level. Who’s gonna blink first, Comex or the Silver-Apes?

 

      March Gold’s Delivery Demands are also constant with the count now at 1,181 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts with a Volume of 11 up on the board and a singular purchase price of $1,742.20, a gain of $10 over yesterday’s close. Thursday’s full day of delivery trade happened in between $1,750.30 and $1,721.80 with the last buy at $1,727.40, after the CCC at $1,732.20, a gain of $5.40 that had a total of 138 new swaps that only reduced the demands by 85 contracts. Gold’s Overall Open Interest lost 3,400 contracts to short against the demands leaving a total of 476,616 Overnighters to trade against the physicals, until there is no more.

 

      WallStreetSilver’s primates are making enough noise to cause Jeffrey Christian to come out and tell them how misguided they are. This should go over well since we all witnessed how off Christian was, when he challenged GATA’s stance, in front of the CFTC hearing, claiming that there is no manipulation. 10 years later, we have JP Morgan paying almost a billion dollars in penalties for manipulating many markets, including Silver.

 

      Here is the look we have regarding anything this apologist says. All these are from Reddit’s WallStreetSilver group;

1

This is what the centrals think will work;

2

With Triple Witch Week ending after today’s trades, we keep ourselves mentally active;

3

 

Perth Mint seems to be a focus lately for the primates and others, because they have run out of some Silver stuff.

4

      We will continue to teach others to hold physical Silver and Gold. With most people stuck at home for over a year, our kids may be picking up these reasons, early!

 

     Find that smiles, and keep packing and stacking. If there is a delivery problem, it will be too late to get more at these cheap prices. Enjoy your weekend and have a prayer for all, and as always …

 

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

More J.Johnson content is available with purchase of a JSMineset subscription.

end

Simon Black..

Gold Versus The Stock Market

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 12:30 PM

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

More than 3,000 years ago in the early 12th century BC, Greco-Roman legend tells us of a mythical pair of monsters located in the Strait of Messina in southern Italy.

The monsters were named Scylla and Charybdis. And both Homer’s Odyssey and Virgil’s Aeneid describe the terror of sailors who came into contact with them.

Scylla was on one side of the Strait, and Charybdis on the other. But because the Strait is so narrow, it was impossible for sailors to avoid both of the monsters, essentially forcing the captain to choose between the lesser of two evils.

In Homer’s narrative, for example, Odysseus is advised that the whirlpools of Charybis could sink his entire ship, while Scylla might only kill a handful of his sailors.

So Odysseus chooses to sail past Scylla: “Better by far to lose six men and keep your ship than lose your entire crew.”

The story is a myth. But the idea of having to choose between two terrible options is very real.

It appears that the Federal Reserve has landed itself in this position.

In its efforts to boost the economy during the pandemic, the Fed slashed interest rates so much that the average 30-year mortgage rate for homebuyers reached an all-time low of 2.65% earlier this year.

Similarly, AAA-rated corporate bond yields reached record low 2.14% last summer.

The US government 10-year Treasury Note dropped to a record low 0.52%.

And the 28-day US government Treasury Bill rate actually turned negative for a brief period– something that has never happened before.

The effects of such cheap rates are obvious.

With corporate borrowing rates so low, the stock market has boomed. With consumers able to borrow money so cheaply, home prices have surged to an all-time high.

Yet in slashing interest rates to record lows, the Fed has essentially sailed right into the Strait of Messina. And they’re about to find themselves stuck between two monsters.

On one side of the Strait is the Inflation Monster, which grows stronger and more menacing with ever dollar the Fed conjures into existence.

Last year the Fed increased the supply of US dollars in the financial system (M2) by 26%– the single largest annual increase since 1943.

The Fed has nearly doubled the size of its balance sheet in the last 12 months alone, and nearly 10x’d its balance sheet since the financial crisis of 2008.

In simple terms, the Fed ‘prints’ money (albeit electronically) and sprinkles it around the financial system.

This is a form of debasement, not much different than how ancient Roman emperors cut corners by reducing the purity of their gold and silver coins.

Historically speaking, debasing the currency eventually causes inflation.

There are famous historical episodes, like Zimbabwe, Venezuela, or the Weimar Republic, where the government’s endless money printing caused hyperinflation.

But there are countless ‘quieter’ examples of inflation– like in Brazil, where inflation is now over 5%, or Turkey, where the annualized inflation rate is about 15%.

15% isn’t exactly hyperinflation. But it does make life pretty uncomfortable, especially when wage growth fails to keep pace. Every year people find themselves poorer and worse off.

Yet the Federal Reserve ignores these countless historic examples, recently claiming to Congress that relentless money printing will not cause inflation.

The Fed’s reasoning is that, because their money printing hasn’t caused inflation yet, it never will. This is pretty dangerous logic, given that rule #1 in finance is ‘past performance is no guarantee of future results.’

But I’ll come back to that in a moment, because on the other side of the Strait is the Market Monster.

Like the Inflation Monster, the Market Monster grows larger with ever dollar the Fed creates. It FEEDS on cheap interest rates.

Look at the US stock market: prior to the pandemic, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record high of just over 29,000 points. Today, the market is more than 10% higher.

And yet–

1. Corporate earnings are DOWN. The average Earnings per Share in the S&P 500 is 30.47% LOWER than prior to the pandemic.

2. Corporate revenue is also down. Yet corporate DEBT is substantially higher.

3. The US economy as measured by GDP is weaker. Consumer spending is still lower than before the pandemic. Unemployment is higher.

4. Government debt is hilariously out of control, and the new ruling party just announced that they want to raise taxes.

Lower profit, lower revenue, higher debt, higher taxes– NONE of these trends should be favorable for stocks. Yet the market is UP, with the average Price/Earnings ratio in the S&P 500 now an incredible 40x.

The Fed knows that the strength of the stock market… along with the real estate and bond markets… is based on cheap interest rates.

They also know that if they raise rates, these markets could suffer a dramatic downturn.

So the Fed has two options to choose from, and neither is good: raise rates and cause markets to crash. Or, don’t raise rates, and risk inflation.

They’ve pretty much already told us they’re choosing inflation.

I’m not suggesting that the US is going to turn into Zimbabwe and suffer terrible hyperinflation.

But inflation levels similar to Brazil or Turkey are definitely possible. It happened before in the 1970s when inflation hit double digits– and stayed that way for years.

And given the Fed’s refusal to acknowledge the slightest chance of inflation (heresy!), it makes sense to consider preparing for the possibility.

I would point out again that gold has a 5,000 year track record of performing well during times of inflation.

It’s also among the few major asset classes that’s NOT currently at a record high.

Unlike the stock market, which has reached an all-time high despite lower earnings and higher debt, gold is down 16% from its peak even though inflation expectations are the highest they’ve been in years.

On that basis, gold looks pretty undervalued.

*  *  *

On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years. That’s why we published a new, 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here.

end
 

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED AT 6.5088 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.5116   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 58.40 PTS OR 1.69%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 414.78 PTS OR 1.41%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 424.70 POINTS OR 1.41%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED/

USA dollar index DOWN TO 91.88/Euro FALLS TO 1.1905

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.78/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.22 and Brent: 63.42

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.29%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 0.67% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.34%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 0.96: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 0.92

3k Gold at $1741.70 silver at:  26.26   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $28.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble  UP 28/100 in roubles/dollar) 74.00

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.78 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9274 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1042 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.29%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.6860% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.420%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 7.25..

 

Futures Rebound In Solid Start To Volatile Quad-Witch

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 07:59 AM

The first quad-witching of 2021 has arrived and so far it has been relatively smooth sailing, perhaps because today’s quad witch sees an abnormally low amount of option expiries (for a list of today’s highest gamma single stocks click here).

US equity futures rebounded after Thursday’s rout, led by technology stocks as bond yields withdrew from 14-month peaks and oil prices retraced some losses. At 07:15 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 58points, or 0.18%, S&P 500 E-minis were up 11.75 points, or 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 69.25.5 points, or 0.53%.

U.S. stocks tumbled on Thursday as Treasury yields jumped to the highest since January 2020, while frosty high-level talks between the U.S. and China also weighed on investor sentiment Friday. Some notable pre-market movers:

  • Oil majors Chevron and Exxon added 1.2% and 1.5% in premarket trading as crude prices stabilized a day after a selloff driven by concerns over demand.
  • FedEx jumped about 3% after the U.S. delivery firm said quarterly profit jumped more than expected on higher prices and surging volume from pandemic-fueled e-commerce deliveries during the holiday shipping season.
  • Nike dropped about 2.7%, leading losses among the 30 Dow components trading before the bell, after the company missed quarterly sales estimates due to shipping issues and a pandemic-related slump at brick-and-mortar stores.
  • The FAAMG stocks gained nearly 0.6% in premarket trading.
  • Plug Power shares fell 2.3% in premarket trading after the company received an expected notification from Nasdaq, saying it is not in compliance with the exchange’s listing rule

Trading volumes are expected to soar in the US on Friday due to “quadruple witching” in which futures and options expiries occur, and that typically also translates into elevated liquidity; there is also a major index rebalance which should support energy and value names according to JPM.

In Europe, the benchmark Stoxx 600 Index pared earlier losses spurred by concerns over the vaccine rollout and inflation to trade 0.3% lower following overnight losses on Wall Street spurred by inflation concerns, and on worries that delays to the vaccine rollout may hamper speed of the region’s recovery. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.45% with cheap and cyclical shares leading a broad retreat among sectors. Energy shares fell the most, followed by miners and banks. Tech shares also underperformed after the Nasdaq 100 Index fell. Only utilities, seen as bond proxies, were in the green. European equities are sliding after closing within 2% of last year’s record level, with the European Union seeking to reset its vaccine campaign after reversing a ban on AstraZeneca Plc’s shots. 

France announced a lockdown of areas including Paris to fight the pandemic, casting a cloud over Europe’s outlook amid an uneven vaccine roll out even as the European Central Bank signaled continued monetary support.  Elsewhere, a number of European nations will start using AstraZeneca Plc’s Covid-19 vaccine again after Europe’s drug regulator declared it safe.

Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Evolution Gaming shares jump as much as 4.8% after Goldman Sachs initiates on the stock with a buy rating. The broker said that Evolution’s growth, returns and cash conversion have yet to be fully captured in its valuation.
  • Enel shares climb as much as 2.5% after the Italian utility reported 2020 results and confirmed its 2021 targets. The renewables growth story is still on track, according to Morgan Stanley.
  • National Grid shares rise as much as 3.2% after being upgraded to buy at HSBC following the group’s acquisition of WDP assets and sale of its NECO unit.
  • Telecom Italia shares fall as much as 5.7% as Bloomberg reports that Italy’s government is set to review the country’s single-network plans, signaling it opposes a return to a phone industry monopoly led by the company.
  • Sabadell shares fall as much as 5%, the most since January 22, with Jefferies saying the Spanish lender’s press release indicates no sale of TSB is on the cards, removing a potential catalyst from its upcoming strategic update.

Strategists on average remain bullish on Europe, although its main benchmarks are closing in on year-end forecasts after strong rallies. “The sharp declines seen in the US last night, in particular on the Nasdaq 100, has set tone for this part of the world,” said CMC Markets analyst David Madden said in an email. “Bond yields rallied recently and that is diminishing equities appeal as some investors are keen to re-direct funds to bonds. Also, stock markets have lofty valuations so that provides an easy excuse to trim long positions.” In a Bloomberg poll, strategists on average saw the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index gaining 2.8% by the end of the year versus Wednesday’s close, barely higher than predictions a month ago. They forecast a 1.3% gain for the Euro Stoxx 50 Index.

Earlier in the session,China’s CSI 300 share gauge slumped as chilly U.S.-China talks soured the mood, while Japan’s Topix rallied and the Nikkei 225 sank after the Bank of Japan said it will focus purchases of exchange-traded funds on the former gauge. As a result, Asia’s equity benchmark headed for its biggest drop in nearly two weeks, tracking the overnight slide in U.S. stocks after Treasury yields spiked. Technology was the worst-performing sector. Regional chipmakers and Chinese internet giants were among the biggest drags on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which lost as much as 1.2% amid a broader selloff. The first face-to-face meeting between senior U.S. and Chinese officials since Joe Biden became president also increasedrisk for some troubled markets. China’s CSI 300 Index, the worst performer among Asia’s major equity benchmarks, fell 2.6% lower. Japanese stocks also slipped after the Bank of Japan specified the size of its movement range for 10-year domestic bond yields and cut the reference to an annual buying target for ETFs.

As Bloomberg notes, a calmer tone is ending a volatile week in which Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell fanned inflation fears by messaging he’s willing to run the economy hot to help it recover from the fallout of Covid-19, and he’s not unduly concerned by rising yields.  “Economic recovery is on its way and we have central banks around the world very committed to easy monetary policy,” said Jun Bei Liu, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners, who sees value stocks benefiting. “Fundamentals of the equity market are looking very strong.”

The yield on the 10-year Treasury benchmark slipped back below 1.7%, a level it hadn’t breached since January 2020, and the dollar was steady. 10-year yields at 1.68% are ~3bp richer on the day as bunds and gilts outperform by 2bp-3bp; Treasuries 2s10s, 5s30s spreads are tighter by less than 1bp, remaining steeper on the week; 2s10s attained a multiyear high Thursday as 10-year yield traded at highest levels since January 2020

After futures led another bruising selloff in Treasuries on Thursday, the evidence is mounting that a big short position is responsible. Open interest in 10-year notes surged by almost 150,000 contracts, according to preliminary data, the equivalent of $14 billion in the cash bonds. Coupled with the price move, that suggests new short positions were added with overall open interest climbing to the highest in over a year.

Treasuries beyond the short end hold gains after following bunds and gilts higher in London trading. Block trades in 5- and 10-year note futures shortly after 6:30am ET appeared to fade this week’s curve-steepening trend, according to BBG. Curve is broadly flatter, with long-end yields richer by 1bp-2bp, amid bigger bull-flattening moves in EGBs.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed an earlier gain in early London hours as U.S. 10-year yields dropped four basis points to 1.67%, after reaching 1.75% Thursday. The greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers, though moves were confined to recent ranges; the euro slipped below $1.19. The yen rose to a one-week high versus the greenback amid short covering after Bank of Japan’s policy decision, before paring its advance. Japanese government bonds edged lower after the central bank set out a wider-than-previously-thought movement range for bond yields and scrapped a buying target for stock funds at the end of a three- month policy review; it also said it will provide the specific amounts it’s spending on bond purchases, instead of a range, in its monthly plan starting from its April operations, The Aussie trimmed a loss in European session after falling to a day low after February retail sales missed all economists’ estimates.

WTI crude oil held above $60 a barrel after a 7% plunge. Bitcoin rebounded back to $59,000 after slumping as low as $56,500 overnight.

Looking at the day ahead, there is no data in the US while notable data releases include Germany’s PPI and UK public finances for February, as well as Canada’s retail sales for January. Meanwhile, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Panetta and Vasle, along with the BoE’s Cunliffe.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,932.50
  • SXXP Index down 0.5% to 424.64
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 208.40
  • MXAPJ down 1.2% to 686.97
  • Nikkei down 1.4% to 29,792.05
  • Topix up 0.2% to 2,012.21
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 28,990.94
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.7% to 3,404.66
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 49,555.13
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 6,708.22
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 3,039.53
  • Brent futures up 1.3% to $64.1/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,743.64
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 91.83
  • German 10Y yield down bps to -0.30%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1926

Top US News from Bloomberg

  • Oil, one of the most-favored reflation trades, just took a heavy beating. Prices headed for the biggest weekly slump since October after a sell-off driven by concerns that recent gains had been too rapid given mixed signals about near-term demand and a rising dollar
  • Treasury holdings at primary dealers fell another $16.1 billion in the week to March 10, extending a record $64.7 billion decline the previous week, according to Federal Reserve data released Thursday. Holdings have dropped to their lowest since October 2018, with declines across much of the curve and only seven to eleven year maturities seeing an increase
  • Armed with an all-clear for AstraZeneca Plc’s vaccine from EU regulators, European leaders must get a grip on a vaccine drive that’s lagging the U.S. and the U.K. and potentially delaying an economic recovery. The rising pace of cases and a renewed four-week lockdown in parts of France underscore the urgency of the threat
  • Germany’s coronavirus cases rose by the most in two months and the contagion rate inched closer to a critical threshold, days before Chancellor Angela Merkel hosts talks to decide on the government’s lockdown strategy
  • U.K. government borrowing totaled 19.1 billion pounds ($26.6 billion) in February, reflecting the cost of supporting the economy through a third lockdown to fight the coronavirus. The shortfall left the budget deficit for the first 11 months of the fiscal year at 278.8 billion pounds, almost six times the amount borrowed in the same period a year earlier, Office for National Statistics figures published Friday show. Net debt climbed to 97.5% of GDP, near the highest since the early 1960s
  • Denmark’s central bank will switch from operating one negative interest rate to three by the end of this week, joining several other peers that have overhauled frameworks in a bid to fine-tune their policy levers

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded negatively following the tech sell-off in the US where the Nasdaq dropped 3% amid a jump in yields and energy underperformed as oil prices declined by around 8% for its largest decline in 6 months, while talks in Alaska have so far underscored the icy US-China relations with plenty of rebukes from both sides. ASX 200 (-0.6%) was dragged lower by commodity-related stocks including oil names following the overnight drop in crude prices which saw WTI briefly slip beneath the USD 60/bbl level and with a surprise contraction in domestic retail sales adding to the glum mood, but with losses in the index stemmed as the top-weighted financials sector marginally benefitted from the rise in yields. Nikkei 225 (-1.4%) gave back the 30K status with participants cautious amid the BoJ announcement where the central bank widened the yield target band to +/-25bps and scrapped the ETF target as speculated, while it also announced that it will now only purchase ETFs linked to the TOPIX (+0.2%) which saw the respective index eventually pare earlier losses. Hang Seng (-1.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.7%) were weaker following the blunt rhetoric between US and China at their meeting in Alaska where US Secretary of State Blinken said that Chinese actions threaten rules-based order and that the US will raise issues of Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan and cyber-attacks, while a senior US administration official later said the Chinese delegation seems to have arrived intent on grandstanding and are focused on public theatrics, as well as dramatics instead of substance. This was after China’s top diplomat Yang responded to Blinken’s comments with a tirade in which he stated the US has many problems regarding human rights and uses military strength, as well as financial supremacy to pressure countries, while he also alleged that US is the champion of cyber-attacks. Finally, 10yr JGBs weakened with price action choppy amid the BoJ announcement whereby there was an initial knee-jerk reaction to the upside as a major newswire reported that the yield target band was kept unchanged, but then pared the move on clarification that the band had in fact been widened which dragged prices back below the 151.00 level but with the downside stemmed given that the adjustment was previously flagged by sources.

Top Asian News

  • BOJ Carves Out More Flexibility for Longer Inflation Fight
  • Bank of Japan Brings End to Decade-Long Buying of Nikkei 225
  • Didi Is Said to Accelerate IPO Plans as Business Rebounds
  • Tokio Marine Faces Larger-Than-Expected Exposure to Greensill

Cash bourses in Europe trade lower across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%) following a similarly negative APAC lead as the regions react to the sell-off seen on Wall Street in the prior session and the US-China meeting. US equity futures however have gleaned some support from yields coming off highs, with the tech-laden NQ (+0.5%) the slight beneficiary vs the more cyclically-influenced RTY (+0.5%). Macro newsflow has remained light with participants on yield-watch after the US 10yr notched a Thursday peak of 1.7540%. Meanwhile, the first day of the high-level US-China meeting did not in any breakthrough as expected, but rather resulted in the two sides publicly rebuking each other, with the meeting set to continue today as the sides size each other up. Also note today is quadruple witching – a full schedule of the major expiries has been published on the Newsquawk website. Back to Europe, the cash open was mixed with heavy underperformance initially experienced in the FTSE 100 (-0.6%) which was seemingly a function of a firmer sterling coupled with firm losses across oil major amid yesterday’s slump in prices – with Shell (-1.5%) and BP (-1.3%) both opening with losses in excess of 2.5% apiece. However, since then, the crude complex has recovered off worst levels and Sterling has waned off highs, thus the FTSE 100 trades relatively in-line with European peers. Sectors in Europe kicked off the session wholly in the red, but have since seen some sectors nursing losses and moving into the green – albeit these comprise of the defensive Staples, Healthcare and Utilities. The downside meanwhile consists of some of the more cyclical names with Banks also hurt as yields pull back, but Oil & Gas does not reside as the clear underperformer anymore. The tech sector meanwhile is somewhat cushioned, with losses modest in what is seemingly a consolidation from yesterday’s declines. Elsewhere, French-listed stocks, namely travel & leisure sectors, as Paris is among 16 regions of France facing new lockdowns from midnight tonight. In terms of individual movers, Telecom Italia (-5.6%) resides at the foot of the Stoxx 600 with traders citing uncertainty over the single broadband network project after comments in past days by ministers in the Draghi government.

Top European News

  • EU Seeks to Reset Vaccine Campaign After Reversing Astra Ban
  • Thomson Reuters, Investors Sell $1 Billion Stake in LSE
  • U.K. Government Sells Part of Natwest Stake For $1.6 Billion
  • U.K. Grid Mega-Deal Throws Spotlight on Once-Unloved Assets

In FX, Friday fatigue could well be a factor following an exhausting week in the financial markets, but beleaguered bonds are getting some welcome respite on a combination of short covering and corrective trade ahead of the weekend to the detriment of the Dollar, or at least sapping its recovery momentum from post-FOMC lows. Indeed, the DXY has topped out again just ahead of 92.000 within a 91.963-655 range as most index components and G10 counterparts regain a degree of composure after yesterday’s concessions to the Greenback’s renewed and greater attraction.

  • NZD/AUD/CAD/GBP/JPY – The tables have also turned somewhat down under, as the Kiwi unwinds declines vs the Aussie, or vice-versa to test 1.0800 in wake of an unexpected fall in retail sales to offset some of the shine from outstanding jobs data and counterbalance the surprise contraction in NZ Q4 GDP. Hence, Nzd/Usd is sitting a bit more comfortably above 0.7150 than Aud/Usd over 0.7750, while Usd/Cad has drifted back down from an oil-induced spike beyond 1.2500 ahead of Canadian retail sales for January that may be rather stale, but still garner attention in the absence of any scheduled US releases today and as the Loonie keeps tabs on crude prices. Elsewhere, Sterling retains grip of the 1.3900 handle and the Pound looks ripe for another attempt post fresh 2021 lows against the Euro towards 0.8500 on bearish technical impulses, contrasting COVID-19 factors and comparatively divergent BoE/ECB policy stances. Last of this group, but not least, the Yen is back above 109.00 and gleaning encouragement from confirmation of a little more flexibility around the BoJ’s zero percent central target for the 10 year JGB yield, but also conscious of purported early RHS interest in Usd/Jpy around 109.30 for month end, as March also culminated with the end of fy 2020/21.
  • EUR/CHF – Aside from the negative impact of Eur/Gbp cross selling, the Euro is also struggling to sustain any real thrust vs the Buck through 1.1900 as the Bund/T-note spread continues to probe 200 bp, while the Franc remains largely contained between 0.9300-0.9200 and 1.1100-1.1000 parameters vs the Dollar and single currency respectively awaiting fresh inspiration from the SNB next week.
  • SCANDI/EM – Continuing the theme of hawkish moves and defying consensus, the CBR caught some out with a 25 bp hike, albeit comments in the run up may well have given the game away and tempered Rub reaction as 125 bp worth of tightening is being flagged for this year. The Rouble has rebounded nevertheless, but still lagging behind the Lira and Usd/Try is now beneath 7.2500 after the CBRT raised the FX swap rate to 19% from 17% to match the 1 week repo.

WTI and Brent front month futures attempt to regain some of lost ground during early European hours as oil prices continued their slide overnight. On this, fundamental factors for the fall in prices seen could be derived to Europe’s rising infection rates, alongside the suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine rollout – albeit this was temporary as the verdict from the EMA resulted in Italy and the German region of Rhineland-Palatinate resuming the use of the AZN vaccine, while Sweden said it needs a couple of days to evaluate the ruling. Meanwhile 16 regions in France are poised to enter a four-week lockdown amid higher infection rates and low vaccination levels – note energy agencies have previously highlighted potential demand dents arising from the intermittent lockdowns in the OECD regions. Nonetheless, banks remain bullish on the near-term fundamentals – Goldman Sachs announced that it expects OPEC+ output to increase by 2.8mln bpd by August whilst it sees Brent rising to USD 80/bbl in the summer. UBS meanwhile forecasts the oil market to stay undersupplied and Brent to move to USD 75/bbl in H2 2021. WTI May trades just below the USD 61.00/bbl handle (vs low 59.11/bbl) whilst its Brent counterpart trades marginally above USD 64.00/bbl (vs low 62.33/bbl). Separately, initially spot gold and silver took advantage of the weaker Dollar but now both are seeing choppiness whilst trading in tight parameters. Spot gold remains sub-USD 1,750/oz (vs low USD 1,728/oz) and spot silver is just above USD 26/oz (vs low USD 25.89). Moving onto base metals, Dalian iron ore has fell overnight as traders are worried over the prospect of further production cuts in the top steelmaking city, Tangshan. Elsewhere, China’s steelmakers are expecting a strong Q2 on the back of continued high demand and the expectation raw material prices will fall from recent highs as supply constraints reduce. LME copper meanwhile trades on the backfoot on either side of USD 9,000/t as the red metal trades in tandem to the softer risk tone across Europe. Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ output to increase by 2.8mln bpd by August and sees Brent rising to USD 80/bbl in summer, while it views recent sell-off as a transient pullback in a large oil price rally and a buying opportunity.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing major scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday saw a sharp turn lower for US equities and another rise in Treasury yields as investors continued to digest the previous evening’s Federal Reserve decision. Though yields on 10yr Treasuries had been at around 1.66% when we went to press yesterday, which is roughly where they’d been trading immediately prior to the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday, shortly after they saw a big shift higher and surged above 1.7% for the first time since January 2020, closing the day up +6.6bps at 1.708%. Although that’s the highest level in over a year, that actually masks the extent of the intraday moves, since at one point they’d hit 1.753%, having been on track to move more than +10bps higher on the day.

The moves came as investors increasingly acknowledged that the Fed were serious about their new average inflation targeting framework that they announced at Jackson Hole, with the Fed’s latest dot plot on Wednesday showing that they expected rates to remain on hold through the end of 2023, even as inflation was projected to be above target. So altogether the FOMC are reaffirming their message that they’re happy to let inflation drift above target to make up for past undershoots.

The selloff was driven by higher real rates, which rose +7.6bps to their highest level since June last year, at -0.59%, in contrast to inflation expectations which actually fell back a little (-1.3bps), just off their highest level since 2013. What’s been noticeable however is that in spite of the Fed’s expectation in the dot plot that rates would remain on hold all the way out to end-2023, which took a number of investors by surprise, the market’s pricing of the eventual liftoff has remained very similar to what it was beforehand. That has an initial hike fully priced by Q1 2023, contrary to the Fed who indicated they’d still be at zero at the end of that year. So it seems that the FOMC’s forecasts haven’t allayed the residual fears among investors that they could need to hike faster than they’re currently planning in order to deal with a potential spike in inflation. As our economists wrote in their World Outlook earlier this week, if inflation did persistently overshoot and that led to a more aggressive set of hikes, this would hit global financial markets hard, with such a move potentially sending the world economy back into recession. That isn’t their base case scenario, but they note it’s the first time in a while that the risks to the US inflation outlook are skewed to the upside.

Against this backdrop, US stocks sold off sharply – particularly after the European close – amidst the news that France would be going back into lockdown (more below). More specifically, tech stocks suffered thanks to the moves higher in yields, with the NASDAQ (-3.02%) and the NSYE FANG+ (-3.61%) both selling off significantly. That said, the biggest sectoral underperformer in the S&P was energy (-4.68%), which came on the back of a major decline in oil prices, as Brent crude (-6.94%) and WTI (-7.12%) both saw their biggest moves lower since June and September 2020 respectively. There wasn’t an obvious single catalyst behind these moves in oil, but they come following two weeks of incredibly positive headlines that have driven prices to their highest levels since the pandemic began, thanks to the OPEC decision last week as well as drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities which raised the prospect of a geopolitical risk premium. Concern over the recovery in global economic demand seemed to play a role as well, since the number of global Covid cases have begun to rise again recently, something that’s led various European countries to move towards tougher pandemic-related restrictions.

More broadly, the S&P 500 was down -1.48% on the day, falling from its all-time high the previous session. The index was down -0.27% just prior to the Paris lockdown announcement, but then fell over -1% further by the closing bell. Early market sentiment wasn’t helped either by weaker-than-expected data, with the number of initial jobless claims for the week through March 13 coming in at 770k (vs. 700k expected), whilst the previous week’s figure was revised up +13k. Banks had a very strong day however thanks to the moves higher for yields, and the S&P 500 Banks were up +1.75% at a post-GFC high, whilst Europe’s STOXX Banks index (+2.33%) hit a post-pandemic high. Elsewhere on the continent, European equities outperformed their counterparts in the US having closed before the majority of the risk sell off. The STOXX 600 was up +0.40%, and core yields including 10yr bunds (+2.6bps) and OATs (+1.7bps) moved higher.

The selloff has continued overnight in Asia, with all the major equity indices moving lower, including the Nikkei (-1.22%), the Hang Seng (-1.55%), the Kospi (-0.59%) and the Shanghai Comp (-1.04%). The main news there has come from the Bank of Japan, which kept interest rates on hold in its latest policy decision, but moved to widen the band around its 10-year bond yield target to 25 basis points either side, in line with the report from the Nikkei newspaper we mentioned yesterday. On top of this, they eliminated the reference to their JPY 6trn annual ETF buying target while keeping the JPY 12trn annual ceiling on ETF buying intact, and said that they would only purchase ETFs tracking the TOPIX rather than the Nikkei, which saw the Nikkei tumble to an intraday low of -1.97% immediately afterwards. Finally, they said that they’d adjust their 3-tier reserve system if there were rate cuts, with lending incentives to banks which in effect will give the BoJ more room to lower the negative rate. Yields on 10yr JGBs are up +0.6bps to 0.113%.

The other big story overnight has been from the start of the high level US-China talks, which are the first of the Biden presidency. However, the tone from both sides was a harsh one, with US Secretary of State Blinken’s opening statement criticising China’s actions, saying that they “threaten the rules-based order that maintains global stability”. In response, China’s Yang Jiechi said that “Many people within the United States actually have little confidence in the democracy of the United States”, and also said that they had a “cold war mentality”. The tone will raise investor fears that US-China relations are likely to remain tense over the coming years, in spite of the change in administration in the US. In other markets, Treasury yields have moved slightly lower overnight, with 10yr USTs down -0.5bps this morning, though that still leaves them just above 1.70%. Meanwhile S&P futures are up +0.17% as we type, though the European bourses are pointing to a lower open as they try to catch up with the late sell-off in the US yesterday.

As referenced above it was another big day of news on the pandemic yesterday, as the French Prime Minister announced that Paris would head into another lockdown. Only essential businesses and schools will remain open, with the measures due to remain in place for four weeks. Elsewhere in Europe, Denmark has moved to ease restrictions on Monday March 22, two weeks ahead of schedule. In the US, more states have committed to opening vaccination eligibility to all adults in the coming weeks as the country pushes forward on its vaccination campaign. President Biden announced that the country has administered 100m shots within 58 days into his term, which is ahead of the administration’s original goal of 100 days.

Separately, we heard from the European Medicines Agency’s safety committee, which said that the AstraZeneca vaccine’s benefits “continue to outweigh the risk of side effects” and that “the vaccine is not associated with an increase in the overall risk of blood clots (thromboembolic events) in those who receive it”. However, they did say that the vaccine might be associated “with very rare cases of blood clots associated with thrombocytopenia”, and that although a “causal link with the vaccine is not proven”, it was “possible and deserves further analysis”. In response to the development, a number of EU countries including France and Germany said that they’d resume vaccinations. Here in the UK meanwhile, the MHRA regulator also said that “the available evidence does not suggest that blood clots in veins” were down to the AZ vaccine. The UK has continued to outpace other countries with its vaccination programme, and almost half of the adult population have now received a first dose.

Staying on the UK, the Bank of England’s MPC voted unanimously to leave policy unchanged yesterday, as they struck an optimistic note on the near-term outlook. According to their summary, global growth had been “a little stronger” than anticipated in their February forecast, and that the new US stimulus “should provide significant additional support to the outlook.” Furthermore, the easing of pandemic restrictions were faster than assumed in the February Monetary Policy Report, and the budget earlier this month also contained fresh measures that would likely reduce the expected increase in the near-term unemployment rate. However, they didn’t push back on rates pricing as such, and stuck to their language from the February meeting that they’d take action if market functioning worsened materially. In response, yields on 10yr gilts were up +4.6bps, which was a sharper rise in yields compared to elsewhere on the continent, though this lagged behind the moves in the US.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include Germany’s PPI and UK public finances for February, as well as Canada’s retail sales for January. Meanwhile, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Panetta and Vasle, along with the BoE’s Cunliffe.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 58.40 PTS OR 1.69%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 414,78 PTS OR 1.41%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 424/70 POINTS OR 1.41%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.63%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.5088 /Oil UP TO 60.22 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.42 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED//  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5088. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5115 TRADE TALKS STALL//YUAN LEVELS //TRUMP INITIATES A NEW 25% TARIFFS FRIDAY/MAY 10/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP TESTS POSITIVE FOR COVID 19  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japan goes full YCC and this BOJ mockery.  Good for gold and silver

(zerohedge)

“We Won’t Tolerate Yield Fluctuations”: Schizoid Kuroda Fine-Tunes Market Micromanagement, Sparks BOJ Mockery

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 10:00 AM

Having leaked in advance everything that it plans to announce, overnight the BOJ held its Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM), and, as was widely expected, it maintained its monetary policy framework intact including yield curve control while slightly loosening its grip on long-term bond yields and laid the groundwork to taper its huge purchases of risky assets, as part of steps to make its ultra-easy policy sustainable enough to weather a prolonged battle to fire up inflation; the changes included a wider-than-previously-thought movement range for bond yields and the scrapping of a buying target for stock funds.

Here are the key highlights:

  • The bank “clarified” (following some now typical confusion) that its tolerable band for fluctuations of 10-year JGB yields is around ±25 bp from the target level, widening from ±20 bp previously. At the same time, it introduced “fixed-rate purchase operations for consecutive days” to maintain the upper limit of its tolerable band.

  • To give itself more room to wind down its massive stimulus, the central bank also removed an explicit guidance to buy ETF and J-REITs at an annual pace of roughly ¥6 tn and ¥90 tn, respectively. Instead, the BOJ now plans to continue purchasing ETFs and J-REITs with upper limits of ¥12 tn and ¥180 bn on an annual basis, respectively. These upper limits were originally set as a temporary COVID-19 countermeasure. The BOJ also said it will focus on buying ETFs tracking the Topix rather than the Nikkei 225 (which led to selling of Nikkei 225 stocks and a rebound in the Topix).

  • The BOJ announced the introduction of a new scheme named “Interest Scheme to Promote Lending,” under which (positive) interest rates, linked to the short-term policy rate, will be applied to financial institutions’ current account balances. This scheme will be enacted when the BOJ decides to cut short-and long-term interest rates in the future, with a view to mitigating the potential adverse effect on the functioning of financial intermediation.

“We won’t tolerate yield fluctuations that would have an impact on our monetary easing,” Kuroda told a briefing. We absolutely need to make sure the effect of our monetary easing isn’t hurt. We clarified that stance with our new guidance.”

The biggest take home from Kuroda and Co is that the BOJ said the band around its 10-year bond yield target was around 0.25% either side of zero – which until now the range had been assumed to be around 0.2%, effectively a modest loosening of Japan’s YCC which helped send Japanese bank stocks higher. 

BOJ officials have been dropping hints that they will allow yields to fluctuate more around the 0% target to breathe life back into a market made dormant by the bank’s dominance. But the central bank faced a communication challenge of having to convince markets that any move would not lead to a withdrawal of stimulus. Kuroda stressed the near-term priority was to keep borrowing costs stably low to support an economy hit by the pandemic.

To avoid sending a message that the BOJ was tightening conditions, Kuroda said the band hadn’t been widened, only clarified. Adopting a wider tolerable band for 10-year yields was initially considered the most likely adjustment, but Kuroda clearly refuted the possibility in the Diet session on March 5. Goldman attributes the about-face to financial markets settling down since then, as well as the government’s decision to lift the state of emergency as of March 21.

Indeed, the BOJ said it will not apply the rule rigidly when yields move below the band temporarily, but step in forcefully with unlimited bond purchases to prevent sharp rise in yields. The conflicting goals made the BOJ’s tweaks so modest it will barely revitalize markets, some analysts say.

“It’s a very minor change. The difference between 0.25% and 0.2% is quite small,” said Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at Sony Financial Holdings in Tokyo. “There’s a long way to go before we even get close to 2% inflation,” he added.

As previewed earlier this week, the BOJ also ditched its 6 trillion yen ($55 billion) guide for annual purchases of exchange-traded funds, while sticking with an upper limit of 12 trillion yen so it can still step into the market if needed. By maintaining the larger annual guidelines as upper limits, the BOJ aims to sound dovish, but it is quite unlikely to actually purchase those amounts, judging from its purchase pace in recent months. In this manner, the BOJ wants to enhance flexibility in the ETF/J-REIT purchase program.

The central bank also unveiled bank lending incentives and a plan to revise its three-tier reserve system if it lowered its target rates. That is to counter the perception it cannot lower its negative rate further. This move in itself was widely anticipated in the market. That said, measures to counter potential side effects took the form of additional interest rates on the lending scheme, rather than the adjustment to the three-tiered system for the current account balance itself that had been reported by many media outlets beforehand.

Economists, leery of calling out naked BOJ emeperor, described the moves as “a balancing act that allows the BOJ greater scope to buy fewer assets but also shore up the effectiveness and sustainability of its measures.” Currency and bond markets largely took the moves in stride with the decision to focus only on ETFs on the Topix index briefly driving down shares on the Nikkei 225.

The best summary of the BOJ’s schizophrenic approach to micromanage the market came from Bloomberg’s Garfield Reyonds who wrote the following:

BOJ Governor Kuroda states Friday’s decision to set the 10-year yield range at -25bps to +25bps was a move to clarify the target, not to raise it. What is instead becoming clear is that the BOJ’s massive and persistent asset purchases are ineluctably drawing the central bank to expand its role in assets and the economy.

The BOJ’s increased focus on 20-year notes, and concern they not get too low, implies that YCC is advancing up the curve, and potentially becoming more vague.

The central bank’s stock-market ambitions have also become both more focused (dropping NKY for the Topix), and less focused (eliminating the 6t yen lower target). And Kuroda announced a plethora of measures to try and better engineer the right sort of mix of behaviors from banks. To sum up, the BOJ:

  • Raised where it will in practice allow 10-year yields to go, but claimed that in theory it did nothing
  • Appears to be favoring value stocks over growth
  • Is certain it can somehow safeguard banks against the impact of negative rates, despite so far struggling to do so

Couldn’t have said it better ourselves

3 C CHINA

CHINA/USA

Chinese honeymoon for Musk is now over due to camera concerns

(zerohedge)

Chinese Military Bans Tesla Vehicles From Bases Over Camera Concerns

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 08:22 AM

Could there be trouble brewing in Elon Musk’s communist paradise?

For months, we have been raising the question of when Tesla’s China fairy tale may come to a screeching halt. Now, it looks like we may be one step closer to the inevitable honeymoon ending.

That’s because, in a stroke of ultimate irony, Tesla vehicles have now been banned from Chinese military complexes and housing compounds due to “concerns about sensitive data being collected by cameras built into the vehicles,” according to Bloomberg. 

The order was issued by the Chinese military and directs Tesla owners to park their vehicles outside of military property. China has concerns that Tesla is “collecting sensitive data via the cars’ in-built cameras in a way the Chinese government can’t see or control”. Images of a purported notice of the ban were circulating on Chinese social media, with the notice proclaiming that cameras and ultrasonic sensors in Tesla cars may “expose locations,” the report notes.

Musk had previously noted that Tesla’s internal camera was “for when we start competing with Uber/Lyft and people allow their car to earn money for them as part of the Tesla shared autonomy fleet.”

Not only has China’s attitude toward Tesla been shifting, but recent commentary from the country’s top ambassador – including accusing the U.S. of human rights abuses and provoking other countries to “attack China” – may be telegraphing that the country’s attitude is becoming more hostile to the U.S. in general. 

Neither Tesla or China’s Defense Ministry commented on the story. 

Recall we’ve covered the China risk to Tesla’s business in our piece suggesting that Elon Musk’s Chinese fairy tale could eventually come to an end. We also noted that, to date, Musk has been able to sidestep some ugly press in China, including out of control Tesla vehiclesforced recalls, constant price cuts and disgruntled customers.

That era looks like it could be coming to an end. 

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

GREENSILL/CAMERON (FORMER PRIME MINISTER)/

Former PM Cameron Tried To Steer Emergency COVID Loans To Floundering Greensill: FT

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 07:30 AM

After months of reporting, the FT has finally nailed former British Prime Minister David Cameron – best known in America for “Piggate” and being hoist by his own petard during the Brexit referendum vote, which will be remembered as one of the worst-played political gambles in history – for some particularly egregious actions undertaken during his post-politics career of shilling for now-defunct Greensill Capital, the disgraced trade-finance specialist.

For those who haven’t been following the Greensill scandal, we discussed the details earlier in a post about the fallout at Credit Suisse, which has been stuck with some $10 billion in Greensill product that has become “impossible to value” (i.e. worthless). One reason the scandal has been covered so prominently in the British press is that Cameron has long been linked to the company (he was hired as a senior advisor to the firm shortly after leaving Downing Street). Well, following a series of well-placed FOI requests, the FT finally “has the receipts” as the youth like to say: the paper has obtained proof that Cameron used his extensive connections in government to try and secure more public financing for Greensill, even as media reports raised questions about the firm’s overall health as several of its biggest clients defaulted on loans, or became embroiled in accounting scandals.

We already knew that Cameron went so far as to visit a former insurance broker in Sydney who was later fired for over-extending coverage to Greensill. Now, public records show Greensill employees had a series of meetings with top Treasury employees as they sought to access a program for pandemic-hit businesses. Despite the Treasury refusing the loan over its obvious misgivings, the decision was reviewed several times and more meetings were held, largely thanks to Greensill’s political connections. When it looked like things weren’t working out in the firm’s favor, it deployed Cameron, who shamelessly lobbied former colleagues via email and text.

The former UK prime minister, who became an adviser to Greensill in 2018, pressed his former colleagues to give the company a bigger role in programmes designed to keep credit flowing to pandemic-hit businesses, according to people briefed on the matter in Whitehall and the City. Public records show Greensill representatives had 10 virtual meetings between March and June last year with the two most senior officials at the Treasury as they sought access to a Bank of England loan scheme. What the records do not show — but the FT has established from industry and Whitehall sources — is that Cameron also intervened personally on behalf of the company.

Treasury officials were reluctant to include Greensill in the Bank of England’s Covid Corporate Financing Facility, even though the finance group said “concerns about their eligibility for the CCFF were misplaced or could be addressed”, according to the records released under the Freedom of Information Act.

Even after Chancellor Rishi Sunak himself stepped in and asked the senior bureaucrat in charge of the review to give Greensill another hearing, it was ultimately decided that lending to the company “would not bring suffficient benefits to UK SMEs”.

Greensill then deployed Cameron to lobby his former colleagues. The former prime minister approached the Treasury and 10 Downing Street — through both his personal email and at least one phone call, according to two people familiar with the conversations. The FT contacted both Cameron and his spokesman asking for comment but they did not respond.

In mid-May, as Treasury officials continued to resist Greensill’s approach, chancellor Rishi Sunak stepped in and asked Charles Roxburgh, the second permanent secretary at the Treasury, to give the company a further hearing. 

An official summary of that conversation prepared for Roxburgh and released following a freedom of information request from the FT, says: “At the Chancellor’s request you took a call from Greensill last night (May 14). You set out that no decision had yet been taken but the Chancellor had asked you to revert to them on two points.”

By early May, the FT had flagged the rising number of defaults linked to Greensill, reporting that a string of the firm’s clients had reneged on their debts in high-profile corporate collapses and accounting scandals.

On May 18 Roxburgh broke the news that a proposal to expand the Bank of England scheme to allow Greensill to use it to write credit to small businesses would “not be likely to bring sufficient benefits to UK SMEs”. Sunak believed that the government should instead prioritise other schemes, the official told the company.

When Greensill was ultimately denied access to the CCFF facility, Cameron tried a different tack: he pushed the British government to increase the cap on a lending facility in which Greensill could participate, and see said loans backed 80% by the British government. In other words, it looks like Cameron conspired with Greensill to stick the British government with losses from the company’s trade-finance business. Fortunately for British taxpayers, the government didn’t go for it.

At this point Greensill, which was founded by the Australian financier Lex Greensill, made a new request. It asked if the Treasury could allow it to write bigger loans under the separate Coronavirus Large Business Interruption Loan Scheme, through which the state guarantees up to 80 per cent of loan amounts.

Greensill had been admitted to the programme in June but while other lenders such as Barclays could issue CLBILS loans of up to £200m, companies using supply chain financing — including Greensill — were limited to a cap of £50m.

Greensill asked that its cap be raised to £200m. That demand also went nowhere, with Roxburgh saying £200m would represent “significant exposure”.

However, even at the lower limit, Greensill was still able to lend hundreds of millions of pounds through multiple loans to companies linked to Sanjeev Gupta, the steel tycoon behind GFG Alliance.

Those loans are just part of taxpayers’ current exposure to more than £1bn of debts linked to Gupta and Greensill via three different state guarantees. Officials are now assessing the government’s likely exposure to the failed Greensill and troubled GFG.

Labor on Thursday night called for an investigation. Shadow chancellor Anneliese Dodds, said the revelations raised serious questions about the chancellor’s priorities in the middle of a pandemic. The FT added that while Cameron’s lobbying attempts “were ultimately fruitless, they will raise concerns about the ‘revolving doors’ between government and the private sector.” Meanwhile, it does seem like the erstwhile PM, whose Conservative Party remains in power, will likely have some explaining to do…perhaps in front of Parliament.

END

Surging case In Europe and Brazil

Reid Wilson/the Hill

Surging COVID-19 cases in Europe, Brazil signal warning for US

Substantial surges in new coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in Europe and Brazil offer a worrying preview of what the United States faces in the coming weeks and months as the plummeting number of cases here begins to level off.

The United States has reported an average of 54,740 cases per day over the past week, a steady decline from the apex of the outbreak in January, when the daily case count was about five times higher. Daily case counts stand about where they were in mid-October, and close to the apex of the summer surge that hit Sun Belt states particularly hard.

But the precipitous drop that occurred through February is now nearing a plateau, one that could presage yet another spike in cases just as optimism about the course of the pandemic begins to take hold.

Public health experts are nervously watching European nations, where a surge in cases is once again straining health care systems. European nations have reported 242 cases per million residents, a rate about 50 percent higher than the United States and one that has climbed by about a third since mid-February.

The increase appears to be driven by spread among younger people, and by the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant that studies show is substantially more infectious, even among children. That raises the specter that the variant will continue spreading widely even as older and more vulnerable people receive doses of vaccine.

“Even if we are able to reduce the number of cases in the older age population of serious disease, we will pick up more in younger populations, which is exactly what we’ve seen in Europe,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Prevention at the University of Minnesota.

The situation in Brazil is even more frightening. Hospitals in all but two of Brazil’s 27 states are north of 80 percent capacity, and more than 2,000 people are dying on a daily basis from COVID-19. Brazil’s seven-day average of new cases stands at 71,800, higher than at any point during the pandemic.

President Jair Bolsonaro has continuously downplayed the threat of the virus. In remarks last week, he told Brazilians to “stop whining” about the virus that has killed more than 280,000 of his constituents.

“What’s happening in Brazil is a tragedy,” Osterholm said. 

That level of crisis is not likely to return to the United States in the coming weeks, as more than 2 million people every day receive doses of one of the three vaccines approved by the Food and Drug Administration. But some models project more spread in the coming weeks, concentrated in the Upper Midwest, the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic.

Hospital visits are rising in Detroit, Flint and Macomb County, Mich. Midwestern cities such as Minneapolis and Chicago are likely to see spikes in the coming weeks, as are the Washington metro area and New York City, according to the PolicyLab at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. Positivity rates are rising in Phoenix, San Diego, Los Angeles and Las Vegas, a worrying sign of a potential spike.

“Our country remains very much in a period of sustained COVID-19 transmission. Although increases in transmission are somewhat expected as communities begin to reopen, these trends are concerning and a reminder that this pandemic is far from over,” the PolicyLab researchers wrote. “The regions of most concern right now are metropolitan areas. This is likely because they are more densely populated, facilitating easier viral transmission and making it more difficult to achieve higher population-level vaccination rates.”

The race to vaccinate as many Americans as quickly as possible represents the first time in the entire pandemic that the United States has been on the leading edge of the battle against the coronavirus. Americans are being vaccinated at a faster pace than any nation other than Chile, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. 

Americans are being vaccinated twice as fast on a per capita basis than are Canadians, and three times faster than the best-performing European nations.

The Biden administration has said it will send millions of doses of a vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University, one that has not been approved by the Food and Drug Administration, to Canada and Mexico.

In testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Thursday, health experts told Congress the United States needs to step up its multilateral efforts to end the pandemic overseas as fast as possible. 

“We live in a deeply interconnected, interdependent world, and an outbreak anywhere can quickly become an outbreak everywhere,” said Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. “We need a vigorous, multipronged, multilateral approach to bring this pandemic to an end by vaccinating a large majority of the world.”

Dozens of low- and middle-income nations have not even received their first doses of vaccine, raising the frightening prospect that unchecked spread could lead to new variants that might evolve a more successful means of evading vaccine effectiveness. 

“If you have billions of people in low-income countries that are getting infected with this, that is where you’re going to spit out variant after variant that could very well challenge the integrity of our vaccines,” Osterholm warned. “These variants are going to just keep spinning out. This is why we’re not done yet.”

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Email to me: (Robert H)

As I have been stated to you: do not poke the bear.. (Russia)

Security of Russia’s south, including Crimea, ensured in full, assures military commander – Military & Defense – TASS

When Russians make statements it is a matter of fact and not bravado. It is not their style to brag about their abilities. They have been concentrated on rebuilding themselves to repel a multi front attack on their homeland with conventional forces. While their defensive missile capability is second to none.
Why poke such an opponent?

 

https://tass.com/defense/1266769

When your own analysis suggests defeat; to tempt such an outcome is very foolish. Especially, given that Russia neither needs or wants what any of the countries on its’ western border have to offer outside of mutual trade potential. Russia is very rich in natural resources and does not need anything from the west. However, they could use extra people as their population is light given their land mass.
As I keep saying Russia will sooner or later realize there is no future value pursuing western trade and engagement and will turn away from Europe and the west.
This will be a loss for Europe and the west both in trade and influence.
And if the west truly is naive enough in its’ current state to attempt intrusion onto Russia soil or protectorates, one can expect the full might of Russia’s talons as a lesson and warning of what else can come.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/world-war-iii-if-russia-invaded-baltics-nato-couldnt-stop-them-180303

And as I wrote the other day if the Ukies have decided to meet their end they will find out quickly how it comes when and if their massed troops incur onto the Crimea.

And we should expect a similar deterioration in relationships with China under the current American administration with implications for parties in the pacific region.
Cheers
Robert

and
updated..
 
 
The heat is in on the line of contact and is escalating.
 
This was to be expected after Putin basically told Biden to pound sand. And parties involved in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline were warned by the US to stop work. 
 

Typical recent US state department strategy tends to be a rather one-sided affair in every diplomatic exchange – it throws loud and shocking accusations, while the other side simply either defends, or keeps silent. This has been consistent over many years.

Yesterday in Alaska, in what is a first or second coordinated response by China and Russia – China is treating the US the same way, and Washington is shocked, as this is seen as unacceptable. The deep state is getting a taste of its’ own strategy in reverse, as both Russia and China are coordinating and taking America face on. Given Biden not knowing what he is, given he refers to Kamala Harris as “ President”. Who knows who really is behind America’ s seemingly misguided policies with China and Russia. 

Washington’s officials saw a mirrored response to their traditional conduct, and were caught unaware, and off guard. Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi said. “We believe that it is important for the United States to change its own image and to stop advancing its own democracy in the rest of the world,” Yang continued in a 15-minute speech that turned into a bit of an uncomfortable finger-pointing session.  This stands a testament to the confusion even whether the election in America was a legitimate one. Perhaps the world is seeing a response that suggests there is a problem of legitimacy that does not carry the weight it had before. Or perhaps it goes much deeper to many other questions not being answered. Whatever the case, America hegemony is being challenged and the world is watching to see the fallout. Lavrov is flying to China to be briefed by the Chinese on their American encounter and this is clearly being done to keep both parties in the loop and coordinated in response. 

This suggests global American policing and influence appears to no longer be a given historical fact, and more surprises are likely coming the Biden administration’s way. This will impact the world in ways we cannot address based on historical precedents as the role of America globally is being challenged and changed in real time. If the vast majority of Americans question the legitimacy of the elections and the result,  perhaps other parties do as well and will be using this to their own advantage, at American expense. 

As a voice of freedom and leadership we can only hope that America finds itself before it is too late to rebuild itself and be a guiding light that is globally respected. Because the world will be worse off, if not.

 

end

 

Russia Deploys All Black Sea Submarines as NATO Kicks Off Drills – The Moscow Times

 
 
 
Taking no chances… remember the great reset crowd want to subdue Russia and thinks now under Biden the US will have their NATO back. And you wonder why they are so concerned with their inability to find Russian subs off the coast of Florida and Israel?
If they provoke Russia, may god have mercy on their souls.
 

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS /VACCINES UPDATE//USA/EUROPE

Mike Whiney is correct:  note were are witnessing covid cases spiking in a dozen states with high vaccination rates

(zerohedge)

COVID Cases Are Spiking In A Dozen States With High Vaccination Rates

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 08:00 AM

As Europe struggles with a “third wave” of COVID infections that’s forcing more governments to reimpose at least some lockdown measures, the US is finding that the number of newly confirmed cases is climbing again, with some of the biggest week-over-week increases seen in states that had been praised for their vaccination diligence.

Source: Axios

The US is adding roughly 55K new cases per day, a level that it has plateaued over the past months (though deaths have continued to move lower). Yesterday, health authorities counted 56.9K new case, and 1,052 deaths.

COVID cases are spiking in 13 states over the past week. The rebound in new cases in states like Michigan (which is leading the country over the past week with a 53% spike in new cases) Nevada, Maryland and Connecticut are raising concerns about whether new variants discovered in New York State, along with other variants like the Kent Strain (B117) and other international strains.

Notably, Michigan is above the US average in terms of its vaccination rate according to Johns Hopkins Data. State officials are blaming variants for the surge, citing a similar dynamic seen recently in Florida and New York. Other states among the highest in vaccination rates—including West Virginia, Maine and Montana—are also dealing with case spikes. Of the 13 states with rising cases, only two – Mississippi and New Hampshire – have below-average vaccination rates.

New data from the CDC indicate that the California strain accounted for 13% of all new coronavirus cases that were genetically sequenced as part of a new federal program in late February. An additional 7% of the samples were the strain from the UK.

As the US tops 115MM vaccine doses given, here’s a look at how close each US state is to vaccinating 100% of its population.

Source: Bloomberg

In other news, NY and NJ have continued to ease restrictions on restaurants and indoor dining as restrictions are expected to loosen further heading into next month.

Circling back to these new strains, scientists and health officials are on edge because both the UK and Cali strains spread more easily than their predecessors and seem to be more resilient to some of the medicines used to treat COVID-19. The California strain has also shown signs of resistance to the current crop of COVID-19 vaccines, which is just a reminder that a second generation of jabs is already being designed. Studies have found that the California strain, which is one of two new strains first sequenced in the US, is 20% more infectious than other strains.

It’s just a reminder that while President Joe Biden keeps talking about families and friends gathering to celebrate July 4 without masks, there’s reason enough to worry about another surge in new cases.

end
 
Important discussion on today’s major stories
(Michael Every)
 

The Odd Decouple

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 10:34 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Odd Decouple

Yesterday saw Fed-dy bears return to the site of the picnic massacre with Sriracha sauce and take out those cocky sandwiches. Despite Fed Chair Powell making clear that US rates are going nowhere for years and years, 10-year US yields went up past 1.75% before consolidating to just below 1.71%: a month ago we were at 1.30%. Once again, this helped push equities lower, and tech stocks in particular. Moreover, it happened despite a spike in US jobless claims to 770,000 (though admittedly the Philly Fed ran very hot), an Ohio auto factory saying it would ship all its jobs to Mexico, and oil prices gapping sharply lower. Whatever happens today, if the Fed thought just jawboning would be enough, *it’s* a sandwich short of a picnic.

Above and beyond the march higher in US longer yields, it’s crucial to underline the central-bank decoupling going on: the ECB just increased its bond buying; the RBA are refusing to hike for years; the Fed are sitting on their hands for years too; the BOE are as well; and the BOJ are today expected to formally make the policy shift of only buying equities when they go down, not whether they go up or down – this is tightening? The closest we see to real hawkishness in the developed world is Norway’s central bank, which has brought forward expectations for what will probably be the West’s first rate hike: it now expects to start in the “latter half” of this year.

Meanwhile the RBNZ has to find a way to permanently keep house prices under control while not raising rates, with Kiwi Q4 GDP -1.0% q/q and -0.9% y/y despite beating Covid. As argued here before, this underlines the issue with the Western monetary-policy/socio-economic structure. A colleague repeated to me the anecdote that ‘using interest rates to control the housing market is like using a shotgun on a mosquito’; I countered that NOT using rates –or anything at all– to control the housing market is like giving the mosquitoes shotguns.

By contrast with the West, emerging market central banks are hiking/tightening. China is, if not via rates; Brazil just hiked 75bp; Turkey a massive 200bp; and the Central Bank of Russia meets today. This policy decoupling isn’t related to the impact of the virus: China and the EU aside, western economies are doing better on vaccines and recoveries – look at the “no yachts left behind” gold rush in Australia (though retail sales were -1.1% vs. 0.6% expected in February). So are emerging markets doing this for fun?!

The optimistic (market) view is the West needs ultra-low rates for fiscal-monetary fusion so it can Build Back Better, and that Western central banks are fully in control and there is no inflation risk; and the pessimistic view is the West needs ultra-low rates to Build Back Bubbles —which the West is allowed to live by, but emerging markets (mostly!) are not— and Western central banks are *not* in control and there is a global inflation risk. Emerging markets can see this game.

On a related note, it’s no surprise the US-China meeting in Alaska went badly. Rather than the de-escalatory tone floated by Zhongnanhai-whisperers, the US started with a lecture on human rights, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and cyberattacks: Secretary of State Blinken even claimed Chinese actions “threaten the rules-based order,” and that “the alternative…is a world in which might makes right and winner takes all, and that would be a far more violent and unstable world.” Cameras were sent out of the room as things got heated, then brought back in so the Chinese side could be recorded saying: “Is this the way you hoped to conduct this dialogue? I think we thought too well of the United States. The United States isn’t qualified to speak to China from a position of strength.”

Perhaps the market only pays attention when that most political of crosses, USD/CNY moves. Yet consider that if the US seems very happy for USD to move lower, and China is tightening, the White House will not be thrilled to see CNY remaining as stable as it is at the moment: they will want it stronger – not the weaker level of around 6.70 many Chinese firms would like to see as a resting place.

It’s also not just the US in the firing line. The EU’s symbolic sanctions on China introduced this week –the first for three decades from a bloc that clearly does not want to pick a side– produced this official vitriol via Twitter: “If the EU makes erroneous decisions based solely on the lies of ill-intentioned anti-China forces, then it shows clearly that this is nothing but political manipulation. Should the EU insist on taking wrong actions detrimental to Chinese interests, we will react with a firm hand.” Even diplomatic European spines might be stiffened rather than softened by that tone.

In short, there still seems to be the odd decoupling left to be done. More so as Russia’s President Putin responded to US President Biden dubbing him a “killer” with a challenge to an online public debate: it would be great TV, but I am just not sure how to allocate the roles of Walter Matthau and Jack Lemon. At the same time, North Korea is no longer even interested in contact with the US; and Saudi Arabia is on the outs long before Iran is in on any new deal.

It’s a good job markets are too busy to focus on any of this because of a rise in US yields as we all Build Back Bubbles.

7. OIL ISSUES

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1905 DOWN .0013 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /RED

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.78 DOWN 0.151 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3929   UP   0.0006  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2487 DOWN .0005 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 13 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1905 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 58.40 PTS OR 1.69% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 414.78 PTS OR 1.41% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0,63%// EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 414.78 PTS OR 1.41% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 58.40 PTS OR 1.69% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.63% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 424.70  POINTS OR 1.41%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1740.95

silver:$26.17-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.686% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.420 DOWN 4  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 91.88 DOWN 2 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.23% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.12.%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.35%//DOWN 3 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:0.68 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 33 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.29% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 0.97% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1901  DOWN     .0016 or 33 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.78 DOWN .151 OR YEN UP 15  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3868 DOWN .0053 POUND DOWN 53  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 12 basis points to 1.2506

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (DOWN)..6.5090

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.750  (YUAN DOWN).. 6.5096

TURKISH LIRA:  7.24  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.12%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.714 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.449 UP 3 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.02 UP 6  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 64.82  0.96%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 162.07 POINTS OR 1.10%

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 61,34 POINTS 1.01%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 134.70 POINTS or 1.56%

Italian MIB: CLOSED  DOWN 207.61 POINTS OR 0.85%

WTI Oil price; 60.53 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.65 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    74.30  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.03 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 3 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.29 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM :  61.71/

BRENT :  64.54

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.724..up 4 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.438 up 5 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1907 ( DOWN 10   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.89 DOWN .041 (YEN UP 4 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 91.93 UP 7 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3864 DOWN 59  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 7.24

the Russian rouble 74.16   UP 0.11 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 11 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2510 DOWN 13 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.29%

The Dow closed DOWN 234.26 POINTS OR 0.45%

NASDAQ closed UP 77.84 POINTS OR 0.61%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.25 CLOSED DOWN 1.33

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.186%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading today in Graph Form

‘Stimmy’ Hangover? Stocks Sink As Fed Flubs, Bond Bull-Market Ends

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 04:01 PM

Quad-Witch sparked the usual chaotic and volatile day (at the cash open and into the close)… Dow & S&P ended red after an ugly close, Small Caps were best on the day…

…capped a choppy week in stocks that saw the Powell promises spark a brief buying panic midweek…

As the market dealt with the biggest non-January options-expiration ever…

And completely shrugged off Powell’s promises of moar-looseness by tightening: first by bringing the timing of a first rate-hike closer…

Source: Bloomberg

And second by accelerating the rate-hike trajectory expected after that…

Source: Bloomberg

The market to Jay Powell this week…

Banks were biffed today as The Fed caved to political pressure and refused to extend the SPR exemption…

FANG Stocks were unchanged after a volatile week…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks were the worst performing sector on the week as crude crashed…

Source: Bloomberg

This was the worst week for energy stocks since September…

Source: Bloomberg

Hedge funds got hammered in the last couple of days after The Fed panic-bid…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX ended the week lower – despite some chaos…

Treasury yields were higher (and the curve steeper) this week with the belly underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields are back at their highest since August 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields jumped this week to their highest since June (though still notably negative)..

Source: Bloomberg

And, perhaps even more notably, the decades long bull market in bonds may have just ended as Bloomberg reports that The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Long Treasury Total Return Index, which tracks bonds maturing in 10 years or longer, has plunged 22% since its peak in March 2020, putting it in bear-market territory.

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the week unchanged against its fiat peers, after plunging on Powell’s promises…

Source: Bloomberg

Mixed and modest describes the week in crypto land – BTC and ETH managed modest gains as LTC slipped, but they have been relatively stable…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin spiked above $60k this week after The Fed, dropped back… then was bid back up to $59k…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices plunged this week, the worst week for WTI since October. The $60 line in the sand continues to hold…

Gold and Silver managed gains on the week with the former holding gains from its bounce off $1700…

Interestingly, we noticed that oil priced in gold had retraced its pandemic losses right before rolling over and plunging this week…

Source: Bloomberg

And that level appears somewhat relevant over time…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that we have just wintnessed seen the greatest 12 month rally in the S&P 500 since the 1930s… (and all it took was $13 trillion in global liquidity injections)

Source: Bloomberg

Amid the second worst bond bear market in 40 years.

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

As promised by Zoltan Posnar:  the Fed let’s SLR  expire;

next stop negative interest rates and thus gold/silver through the moon

(zerohedge)

Stocks & Bonds Tank After Fed Lets SLR Relief Expire

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 09:05 AM

As was perhaps hinted at, and discussed in detail here, The Fed has decided – likely under political pressure – to let the temporary supplementary leverage ratio changes to expire as scheduled.

The federal bank regulatory agencies today announced that the temporary change to the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, for depository institutions issued on May 15, 2020, will expire as scheduled on March 31, 2021.

The temporary change was made to provide flexibility for depository institutions to provide credit to households and businesses in light of the COVID-19 event.

Stocks tumbled…

And bond yields spiked…

In case you’ve been living under a rock, here’s why you should care about the SLR decision.

First, for those who missed our primer on the issue, some background from JPM.

The massive expansion of the Fed’s balance that has occurred implied an equally massive growth in bank reserves held at Federal Reserve banks. The expiration of the regulatory relief would add ~$2.1tn of leverage exposure across the 8 GSIBs. As well, TGA reduction and continued QE could add another ~$2.35tn of deposits to the system during 2021.

While the expiry of the carve-out on March 31 would not have an immediate impact on GSIBs, the continued increase in leverage assets throughout the course of the year would increase long-term debt (LTD) and preferred requirements. Here, JPM bifurcates from Goldman’s assessment: JPMorgan writes that “even the “worst” case issuance scenario as very manageable, with LTD needs of $35bn for TLAC requirements and preferred needs of $15-$20bn to maintain the industry-wide SLR at 5.6%. The constraint is greater at the bank entity, where the capacity to grow leverage exposure to be ~$765bn at 6.2% SLR.” Goldman’s take was more troubling: the bank estimated that under the continued QE regime, there would be a shortfall of some $2 trillion in reserve capacity, mainly in the form of deposits which the banks would be unable to accept as part of ongoing QE (much more in Goldman’s full take of the SLR quandary).

In any case, the regulatory relief granted to large US banks with regards to calculation of Leverage Exposure is scheduled to expire on March 31, and as JPM correctly notes, “the potential impacts on bank balance sheets as well as rates remain front of mind for investors.” Ultimately, JPM reaches the same conclusion as Goldman: the reinclusion of deposits at Federal Reserve banks and Treasuries would increase Leverage Exposure for the 8 GSIBs by ~$2.1tn as of 4Q’20and keep in mind that balance sheets and deposits held at Federal Reserve banks are expected to grow further in 2021 reflecting TGA reduction and continued QE, to the tune of another $2+ trillion .

Having explained that, what happens next? While many have feared significant instability from forced deleveraging, repo guru, Zoltan Pozsar (formerly of the NY Fed and currently at Credit Suisse) most recently talked down the effects, suggesting that The Fed has been “foaming the runway” for the end of SLR exemption.

However, ending the exemption of reserves and Treasuries from the calculation of the SLR may mean that U.S. banks will turn away deposits and reserves on the margin (not Treasuries) to leave more room for market-making activities, and these flows will swell further money funds’ inflows coming from TGA drawdowns.

This – as we have explained repeatedly – is a problem.

end

 

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//Non farm payrolls

 
 

ii)Market data/USA

Treasury cash begins as a record $271 billion dollars leaves the treasury accounts to land into bank accounts. This because one month treasury bills to go negative and a very important funding repo account:  FRA-OIS to also fall into the negative column.  Shortly we will see all repo collateral go negative as we head into USA negative interest rates

(zerohedge)

Treasury Injects A Record $271 Billion In Cash In One Day, Sending ST Rates Negative

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 12:00 PM

A little over a month ago we explained that in line with the Treasury’s forecast for huge net debt drawdown in the current quarter, a record $1.1 trillion in cash and reserves was about to hit the market. Fast forward to today when catalyzed by the latest Biden stimulus bill, this flood has officially begun, and as the latest Daily Treasury Statement showed, on March 17, the Treasury cash held at the Fed in the Treasury General Account dropped by from $1.361 trillion to $1.090 trillion, the lowest since April 2020…

… and a massive $271 billion injection of cash in one day!

The offset to the drain in the TGA was a surge in bank depository cash, which soared to a record $3.873 trilliona $220BN increase in one week.

As a reminder, we said that once this avalanche of liquidity in the form of cash and reserves hits the system and once deposits soared, it “would trigger a multi-faceted domino effect across assets, potentially pushing funding rates (FRA-OIS, repo, etc) negative”, and sure enough that’s precisely what happened today, with the rate on overnight general collateral repurchase agreements sliding below zero amid the monthly influx of cash from both the Treasury and GSEs:

None other than JPMorgan warned in its Q4 earnings presentation that a flood of new deposit activity could push rates even more negative.

Meanwhile, Treasury bills maturing through mid-May are yielding between -0.015% and 0%.

The scramble for collateral is so aggressive that direct bidders in Thursday’s 4-Week Bill were awarded the largest share of the takedown in seven years despite the near-zero stopout yield, an indication that investors expect it may become more difficult to find positive-yielding short-term assets. For those who missed it, the Treasury sold $40BN four-week bills at 0.05%, the lowest stopout yield since March 26, 2020, and as Jefferies economist Thomas Simons wrote, the direct bidder award of 21% – largest since February 2014 – is an “extraordinarily large takedown that essentially defies explanation.”

“It is not clear why a bidder who participates in auctions so regularly as to justify bidding directly would want 4-week bills at half a basis point, but it seems like positive-yielding assets in this area of the curve are about to become harder and harder to find,” Simons said.

Which means to expect even lower negative rates: as Bloomberg’s Alexandra Harris notes, even when GSE cash exits, funding rates may remain pinned near zero as banks’ reserve balances at the Fed swell due to ongoing asset purchases and a faster deceleration in the Treasury General Account. It’s also what Zoltan Pozsar predicted, especially now that we know that the SLR won’t be extended, potentially forcing banks to shrink their balance sheets.

One more point: keep an eye on the Fed’s RRP facility as the combination of an “ever- expanding Fed portfolio” and a declining TGA releases more cash into the system, “some of that is likely to end up in the RRP facility rather than in bank reserve balances,” Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall says in note.

Finally, as a reminder, earlier today the Fed announced that it will let exemptions to the supplementary leverage ratio expire at the end of the month; as a result, Treasury yields rose and long-end swap spreads widened.

And, as Zoltan also warned, it now appears that year-end turn funding stress indicators are starting to emerge in the front-end rates market according to Bloomberg’s Edward Bolingbroke, who notes that the December 2021 eurodollar futures contract is underperforming vs its peers on the curve as the December/year-end FRA/OIS widened out through 18bps since the Fed confirmed SLR relief will expire March 31. The spread has widened close to 2bp since the announcement while Dec21 eurodollar futures contract dropped as much as 2bp to 99.73 session lows.

In other words, for now the SLR announcement has not lead to any adverse plumbing shocks, but keep an eye on on negative rates, which may continue to drift ever lower as the Treasury continues to pump hundreds of billions of liquidity into the system for the coming weeks.

END

Jim Sinclair comments on the above story..impt read..

Response To Treasury Injects A Record $271 BIllion In Cash In One Day, Sending ST Rates Negative
 
March 19, 2021
 
This problem existed the week COVID-19 came to us. COVID-19 shut down the demand for money. Now that states are opening, look at the panic in the short term loans REPO market. The banking crisis was held off by killing the demand for money, but it never went away. It was hidden by the economic effect of COVID-19. Now we are back between a rock and a hard place with states opening up for business. MMT is only an empty tool bag with a nice name to calm you.
 
Only gold miners produce real money, as defined by all the characteristics of money and no title in transfer making it silent.
 
If nothing called Bitcoin can trade at $65,000 then something called gold will trade at $50,000 per ounce. Something monetary like silver will trade at a minimum of $100.
 
Modern Monetary Theory is an empty black box with no tools in it. It is only a name to make you think there is a replacement for all failed previous central bank policies. There is no MMT. A REPO the Fed allows to be repaid in more than one day is a cover up for evermore QE.
 
Gold and Silver are headed to new highs breaking out soon. I think slightly after my 80th birthday on March 27th 2021. Gold and Silver will run for at least five years.
 
I foresee great success for all well run and rich gold/silver projects.
 
Jim Sinclair
 
 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

 

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/USA/VACCINE

Prison guards are now refusing the M-RNA vaccines

(zerohedge)

Prison Guards Across Country Refusing COVID Vaccine Despite Outbreaks

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 08:20 PM

Correctional officers across the country are shunning the COVID-19 vaccine over fears of both short-term and long-term side effects of the most rapidly-developed immunization in US history.

Kareen Troitino stands outside the Federal Corrections Institution, Friday, March 12, 2021, in Miami. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier)

According to an investigation by the Associated Press and the Marshall Project, while over 106,000 prison employees across 29 systems have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, many won’t take it – joining countless health care workers, nursing home employees and police officers who refuse to become vaccinated despite regular exposure to the public.

Prisons are coronavirus hot spots, so when staff move between the prisons and their home communities after work, they create a pathway for the virus to spread. More than 388,000 incarcerated people and 105,000 staff members have contracted the coronavirus over the last year. In states like Michigan, Kansas and Arizona, that’s meant 1 in 3 staff members have been infected. In Maine, the state with the lowest infection rate, 1 in 20 staff members tested positive for COVID-19. Nationwide, those infections proved fatal for 2,474 prisoners and at least 193 staff members. –AP via Komo News

In one Florida federal prison, FCI Miami, “fewer than half of the facility’s 240 employees have been fully vaccinated as of March 11,” according to corrections officer union president Kareen Troitino, who said that many of the workers who refused were concerned over the vaccine’s efficacy and side effects.

In January, Troitino and FCI Miami warden Sylvester Jenkins invited employees to join them in getting vaccinated “in an act of solidarity,” writing “Even though we recognize and respect that this motion is not mandatory; nevertheless, with the intent of promoting staff safety, we encourage all staff to join us.”

Just 25 employees signed up despite the facility having had two major COVID-19 outbreaks; one last July, when 400 prisoners out of 852 were suspected of having the disease, and a second wave in December which struck approximately 100 people housed in the prison’s minimum-security camp.

The trend is nationwide:

In Massachusetts, more than half the people employed by the Department of Correction declined to be immunized. A statewide survey in California showed that half of all correction employees will wait to be vaccinated. In Rhode Island, prison staff have refused the vaccine at higher rates than the incarcerated, according to medical director Dr. Justin Berk. And in Iowa, early polling among employees showed a little more than half the staff said they’d get vaccinated.

As states have begun COVID-19 inoculations at prisons across the country, corrections employees are refusing vaccines at alarming rates, causing some public health experts to worry about the prospect of controlling the pandemic both inside and outside. Infection rates in prisons are more than three times as high as in the general public. Prison staff helped accelerate outbreaks by refusing to wear masks, downplaying people’s symptoms, and haphazardly enforcing social distancing and hygiene protocols in confined, poorly ventilated spaces ripe for viral spread. -AP

“Everybody is on edge” says Troitino, who’s worried that so many correctional officers and prisoners haven’t been vaccinated – adding that officers are “constantly shuttling sick and elderly prisoners to the hospital,” leaving a skeleton crew to operate the facility.

Explanations for why prison employees are refusing the jab essentially revolve around ‘right wing misinformation’ and ‘debunked conspiracy theories,’ according to the report.

Or, perhaps they’re leery of taking what is essentially still an experimental vaccine for a disease which kills mostly old, obese, and medically compromised people, and which doesn’t prevent one from contracting or transmitting it.

Read the rest of the report here.

END

Dan Bongino to fill Rush Limbaugh’s airtime in all radio major markets

(zerohedge)

Dan Bongino To Fill Rush Limbaugh’s Airtime In Major Markets

 
THURSDAY, MAR 18, 2021 – 10:00 PM

Conservative pundit Dan Bongino will take over the late Rush Limbaugh’s coveted three-hour airtime slot across several major markets, according to Cumulus Media Inc’s Westwood One.

Following Limbaugh’s death last month, most stations have been filling the void by playing reruns of old episodes. Limbaugh, the most listened to radio host in the United States, reached over 20 million monthly listeners across over 650 affiliates, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Bongino, a former Secret Service agent and NYPD officer who has his own popular podcast, has become a rising star in conservative media. He will fill the three-hour slot in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, San Francisco, and Washington, DC, while most other stations will continue to air old tapes of the show.

Mr. Bongino lost three Congressional races—two in Maryland and one in Florida—running as a Republican, but his success in punditry has exploded. A vocal supporter of conservative candidates who once declared, “my entire life right now is about owning the libs,” his views often echo Mr. Limbaugh’s. He is also a man of many media: He has written several bestselling books, appeared regularly on Fox News, and commands a Facebook page with more than four million highly engaged followers.

The move by Westwood One, which syndicated Mr. Limbaugh’s show across about 30 stations, signals that the revered and controversial host’s void may be filled piecemeal, instead of by a single successor. The radio network didn’t specify exactly how many stations Mr. Bongino’s show would appear on. Already some individual markets have chosen local hosts to take over the airwaves. –Wall Street Journal

In other markets, different hosts such as right-wing Evangelical commentator Erick Erickson has taken over Limbaugh’s slot, while Jacksonville’s WOKV has given the slot to radio host Mark Kaye. In Baltimore, radio and podcast host Derek Hunter has taken over the slot.

While iHeartMedia admits that “No one can replace Rush Limbaugh,” the company’s Premiere Networks have continued to air a hybrid of Rush reruns on topics currently being discussed, using guest hosts in between clips. So far it’s attracted roughly 75% to 80% of Rush’s regular audience, according to a person familiar with the matter.

END
An accident waiting to happen:  Margin stock debt ie. money borrowed from brokerage firms on stocks hits all time highes on spiking stock leverage.
(Wolf Richter)

“A Zoo That Has Gone Nuts” – WTF Chart Of Spiking Stock Market Leverage

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 08:53 AM

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

In the current craze that encompasses everything from sneakers and NFTs to stocks, where valuations don’t matter because of widespread certainty that valuations will be even greater in a few days, and where folks are chasing lottery-type returns, supported by the Fed’s interest rate repression and $3 trillion in asset purchases, and by the government’s trillions of dollars of handouts and bailouts – well, in this perfect world, there is a fly in the ointment: Vast amounts of leverage, including stock market leverage.

Margin debt – the amount that individuals and institutions borrow against their stock holdings as tracked by FINRA at its member brokerage firms – is just one indication of stock market leverage. But FINRA reports it monthly. Other types of stock market leverage are not reported at all, or are disclosed only piecemeal in SEC filings by brokers and banks that lend to their clients against their portfolios, such as Securities-Based Loans (SBLs). No one knows how much total stock market leverage there is. But margin debt shows the trend.

In February, margin debt jumped by another $15 billion to $813 billion, according to FINRA. Over the past four months, margin debt has soared by $154 billion, a historic surge to historic highs. Compared to February last year, margin debt has skyrocketed by $269 billion, or by nearly 50%, for another WTF sign that the zoo has gone nuts:

But margin debt is not cheap, especially smaller amounts. For example, Fidelity charges 8.325% on margin balances of less than $25,000 – in an environment where banks, money market accounts, and Treasury bills pay near 0%. Margin debt gets cheaper for larger balances, an encouragement to borrow more. For margin debt of $1 million or more, the interest rate at Fidelity drops to 4.0%

“Whether you need extra money for a short-term financing need or buying more securities, a margin loan may help you get the money you need,” Fidelity says on its website. In other words, take out a margin loan to buy a car or much needed bitcoin or NFTs.

Every broker has its own margin interest rate schedule. Morgan Stanley charges 7.75% for margin balances below $100,000, compared to Fidelity’s 6.875% for balances between $50,000 and $99,999. For margin balances over $50 million, Morgan Stanley charges 3.375%.

And it’s risky leverage for the borrower. It seems like risk-free leverage when stocks go up, but when your stocks do the unheard-of and tank below a certain level, your broker will ask you to put more cash into your account or sell stocks into the tanking market, whereby you then join the legions of forced sellers.

In the past, a big surge in margin balances tended to precede history-making stock market declines:

Over the two-decade period of the chart, the long-term changes in the dollar amounts are less important since the purchasing power of the dollar with regards to stocks has dropped.

But short-term, the changes show what is happening to margin debt in the run-up before the sell-off, and what is happening during the sell-off when margin requirements turn investors into legions of forced sellers.

Leverage is the great accelerator of stock prices, on the way up, and on the way down. Purchasing stocks with borrowed money creates buying pressure, and prices rise, and rising prices increase the margin balances a portfolio can support, and this encourages more stock-buying on margin.

On the other hand, selling stocks to deal with margin calls adds more selling pressure to an already declining market. The more prices fall, the more selling pressure there is from frazzled forced sellers trying to deal with margin requirements.

Then at some magic point, margin debt has been reduced enough, and its contribution to the selling pressure fades.

The historic surge in margin balances in recent months is another indicator of how hyper-speculative and blindly courageous the mega-bubble has become. All kinds of new theories are being proffered why fundamentals and valuations are meaningless, and why prices of all assets will shoot to the moon, no matter what.

These theories smacked into the bloodletting in Treasury bonds and high-grade corporate bonds with longer maturities, as long-term yields have been marching higher for months, which I discuss in my podcast…. THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Market Manias Galore, But Long-Term Interest Rates Smell a Rat

*  *  *

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. 

end
 
Ford cancels shifts and builds partially assembled vehicles amid a huge deepening chip shortage.
(zerohedge)

Ford Cancels Shifts, Builds Partially Assembled Vehicles Amid Deepening Chip Shortage  

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 09:20 AM

The global supply chain remains “stretched thin,” with Ford Motor Company announcing Thursday evening that it will continue to build its top-selling F-150 trucks and Edge SUVs without certain parts, according to CNBC, quoting a Ford spokeswoman. 

The spokeswoman said the automaker would continue building the F-150 and Edge models for “several weeks” without specific semiconductor components. When those chips are made available, the vehicles, expected to be “in the thousands,” will have workers install the chips. 

Production woes don’t stop there. Ford canceled three production shifts through Friday at a Kentucky plant that produces Ford Escape and Lincoln Corsair crossovers. Next week, Ford expects to limit production of the Ford Fiesta car made in Germany. 

By now, the world knows the massive chip shortage is worsening and could jeopardize the economic recovery. 

Ford expects the chip shortage could lower its earnings by at least $1 billion $2.5 billion this year. 

In response to the shortage that has severely hit some global automakers to the point of limiting production and furlough workers until supply bottlenecks are resolved, President Biden recently signed an executive order which seeks to address the global semiconductor chip shortage after a session with a bipartisan group of lawmakers to discuss the growing crisis. “Make no mistake, we’re not simply planning to order up reports. We are planning to take actions to close gaps as we identify them,” a White House official said.

To gauge just how serious the supply chain disruption is, one needs only to read what the respondents to the most recent mfg ISM said to get a sense of how bad it truly is:

  • “Things are now out of control. Everything is a mess, and we are seeing wide-scale shortages.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

While the massive semiconductor shortage affects automakers worldwide, other companies in different industries are starting to feel the pressure. Samsung is the latest to confirm that the current chip shortage is “very serious” and “poses a slight problem” for the electronics company heading into the second quarter. 

Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius provided an outline to clients this week of recent media reports documenting the disruptions.

Hatzius believes supply-chain and logistical challenges will persist through 2021 and only be alleviated next year. 

In the meantime, the chip shortage is getting more serious, affecting the production output of certain companies. 

end

(Zero hedge)

“Things Are Out Of Control” – There Is A Shortage Of Everything And Prices Are Soaring: What Happens Next

 
FRIDAY, MAR 19, 2021 – 11:45 AM

In Wednesday’s press conference, Jay Powell confirmed that the Fed is setting off on a historic experiment: welcoming a conflagration of red-hot inflation for an indefinite period of time in an overheating economy, with the underlying assumption that it’s all “transitory” and that inflation will return to normal in a few years, and certainly before 2023 when the Fed’s rates will still be at zero.

There is a big problem with that assumption: while FOMC members, most of whom are independently wealthy and can just charge their Fed card for any day to day purchases of “non-core” CPI basket items, the vast majority of the population does not have the luxury of having someone else pay for their purchases or looking beyond the current period of runaway inflation, which will certainly crush the purchasing power of the American consumer, especially once producers of intermediate goods start hiking prices even more and passing through inflation.

Many readers may not recall, but one such instance of “transitory” inflation that proved to be anything but and led to the infamous Volcker Fed and its double digit rate hikes, was the price of oil which took off in the Arab oil embargo and then refused to come back for over a decade.

The Powell Fed, however, is eager to brush aside any analogues to previous episodes of runaway inflation which it sees as having a demand component, and merely ascribes what is taking place to unprecedented supply chain disruptions – i.e., collapse in supply – as a result of both the trade war with China and, more recently, the covid pandemic, which have unleashed chaos among traditional supply-chain intermediaries.

To be sure, the Fed is certainly right that there has been turmoil within virtually all supply chains: one needs to only read what the respondents to the most recent mfg ISM said to get a sense of how bad it truly is:

  • “Things are now out of control. Everything is a mess, and we are seeing wide-scale shortages.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • “Supply chains are depleted; inventories up and down the supply chain are empty. Lead times increasing, prices increasing, [and] demand increasing. Deep freeze in the Gulf Coast expected to extend duration of shortages.” (Chemical Products)
  • “The coronavirus [COVID-19] pandemic is affecting us in terms of getting material to build from local and our overseas third- and fourth-tier suppliers. Suppliers are complaining of [a lack of] available resources [people] for manufacturing, creating major delivery issues.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “We have seen our new-order log increase by 40 percent over the last two months. We are overloaded with orders and do not have the personnel to get product out the door on schedule.” (Primary Metals)
  • “A sense of urgency is being felt regarding new orders. Customers are giving an impression that a presence of stability is forthcoming and order flow is increasing.” (Textile Mills)
  • “Prices are rising so rapidly that many are wondering if [the situation] is sustainable. Shortages have the industry concerned for supply going forward, at least deep into the second quarter.” (Wood Products)
  • “We have experienced a higher rate of delinquent shipments from our ingredient suppliers in the last month. We are still struggling keeping our production lines fully manned. We anticipate a fast and large order surge in the food-service sector as restaurants open back up.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • “Steel prices have increased significantly in recent months, driving costs up from our suppliers and on proposals for new work that we are bidding. In addition, the tariffs and anti-dumping fees/penalties incurred by international mills/suppliers are being passed on to us.” (Transportation Equipment)

Even BofA’s Chief Investment Officer, Michael Hartnett, threw in the following “heard on main street” anecdote in one of his recent Flow Show notes:

Our worldwide supply chain, and ability to provide products and services to you, is being significantly impacted by increased prices resulting from labor and raw material shortages, escalating raw material prices, manufacturing delays and transit interruptions. Stated directly, our costs are increasing and are much more volatile than in the past.” – Mar 3rd price increase notification to CA real estate developer.

The problem has become so acute that several of the regional Fed business surveys asked specific questions about supply chain disruptions in the last few months. As the chart below shows, a majority of manufacturing firms report that supply chain disruptions are currently negatively affecting production. Additionally, 38% of businesses in the Atlanta Fed’s survey reported that supplier delays were moderate to severe, while 49% of Dallas Fed respondents reported that disruptions had meaningfully raised input prices. In the NY Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Survey, 59% of respondents reported finding new suppliers due to supply chain disruptions, while 58% reported that they had started building extra inventories. Overall, these measures suggest that supply chain disruptions are dramatically and adversely impacting business operations, and leading to far higher prices.

If that wasn’t enough, to better understand the cause of supply chain disruptions, in a recent report from Goldman Sachs the bank summarizes recent media reports on disruptions.

One striking feature of these reports is that supply chain disruptions are “very widespread” and although the semiconductor shortage and its drag on auto production has garnered significant attention, Goldman economist Jan Hatzius notes that many other consumer goods – from headphones to sofas to roller skates – have also faced supply challenges this year.

Digging deeper, Goldman then notes that although supply shortages have affected a wide variety of products, in most cases the root causes are the same:

  • First, manufacturers were caught off guard by a faster-than-anticipated recovery in demand and hadn’t ordered enough inputs in advance to meet production needs.
  • Second, the increase in goods demand while transportation services are limited by the virus has led to an undersupply of shipping containers and congestion problems at West Coast ports, resulting in lengthy shipping delays.

So first the bad news: even if the current burst of inflation is truly “transitory” – as the Fed vows, staking what little credibility it has that inflation will reverse in the second half of 2021 – Goldman concedes that “neither of the above two problems should abate soon” since fiscal support for household income should keep goods demand elevated and the virus should continue to disrupt the supply of international goods transport services until widespread inoculation in the US and its trade partners normalizes both goods demand and supply.

But there is a silver lining: The good news is that because supply challenges are largely driven by transportation and not production constraints—unlike last spring when supplier delays spiked due to factory shutdowns that halted the supply of intermediate goods—Goldman, and by extension the Fed, expects that supply constraints will put upward pressure on prices but have less of an impact on real economic activity. As examples of how some importers and manufacturers have alleviated bottlenecks at higher costs, some companies have started importing bike parts and hot tubs by air rather than sea freight, and other producers have started rerouting imports through alternate ports.

That said, these bottlenecks can lead to another perverse price increase as they substantially increase transport costs in strained trade routes. As shown in the next chart, shipping costs from China to the US have roughly tripled over the last year. This will likely put upward pressure on consumer prices as manufacturers pass these costs on to consumers.

However, according to Goldman, the impact on consumer prices is likely to be muted compared to the huge increases in certain shipping costs, for two reasons.

  • First, shipping costs outside of East Asia have seen much smaller increases. For example, domestic transportation costs according to the Producer Price Index – which make up roughly three-fourths of total shipping costs for manufactured goods – are up just 1.6% relative to pre-virus levels.
  • Second, total shipping costs represent only a small share of the final price of a good. Using information from the World Input-Output Tables, shipping costs make up less than 3% of the final cost of manufacturing output, implying that international shipping costs make up less than 1%.

Taken together, Goldman estimates that elevated shipping costs are currently boosting year-over-year core consumer price inflation by roughly 9%!

Goldman’s conclusion is that while supply-chain and logistical challenges will persist and shipping costs will remain elevated until early 2022, putting upward pressure on the level of consumer prices through the end of this year, the bank believes that the impact on inflation has already peaked and will turn into an outright drag in 2022 as shipping bottlenecks resolve themselves and prices moderate.

It is this fundamental assumption that none other than the Fed is also betting on; and while Goldman may be right and the supply side of the CPI equation may soon start to normalize and in fact be a drag on Y/Y prices in 2022, the bigger question is how much of an impact does the demand side have, a demand side where, as a reminder, the various stimulus checks have already more than offset all the lost income from the covid pandemic. And much more is coming. In other words, yes – if inflation was purely a supply phenomenon, Powell’s avoidance of surging prices would be justified. But if the increasingly broader acceptance of Universal Basic Income in the form of weekly and monthly stimmies from the government makes handouts from the government, which now accounts for 27% of all consumer income

… is here to stay, all bets are off, and the Fed has just begun the most ruinous monetary experiment in US history.

iv) Swamp commentaries

 
 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories.

BOJ to loosen grip on yields, lay groundwork for ‘stealth’ tapering
By allowing bond yields to fluctuate more around its target, the BOJ is hoping to avoid the hassle of having to contain any natural rise in yields caused by prospects of a stronger recovery from the pandemic later this year, some analysts say…  http://reut.rs/3eXQKKS

Bank of England keeps policy unchanged and follows Fed with dovish tone
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/18/bank-of-england-march-rate-decision-rates-and-qe-unchanged.html

On Thursday morning Oil tumbled as much as 6.16% on fear that European and South American Covid resurgences will impair their economies and crush oil demand.  Gasoline fell as much as 4%.

King Report on Thursday: The usual suspects will try to force ESMs and stocks higher to complete the expiry squeeze.  The biggest hurdle for the stock market could be bonds

@PPGMacro: US Treasuries 10y10y [forward rate] now at 3.20%. Powell may say that financial conditions are still accommodative, but this represents a huge tax on the rest of the world.
https://twitter.com/PPGMacro/status/1372600432875425794

Biden tax hike could hit people earning $200K, White House clarifieshttps://trib.al/79sejp6

GOP Sen. @tedcruz: What??  No…….who could have predicted that Biden wasn’t telling the truth?  This is what socialists do: they promise everyone else’s taxes are going up; but you always know YOUR taxes are going up too.

WSJ: The United Auto Workers union has informed workers that Ford plans to move a major project worth $900 million from Ohio to its plant in Mexico

 

@disclosetv: Israel’s defense minister Benny Gantz calls Biden’s remarks that Putin is a killer “bizarre and extreme.”

‘It takes one to know one’ Putin retorts after Biden says he thinks he is a killer https://t.co/g0MVlK5hUR

@AFP: White House says does not regret Biden calling Putin “killer”

@FinancialJuice: White House: The US Is Hopeful Can Continue to Have a Productive Relationship with Russian [Not the Babylon Bee or The Onion or another parody site]

Putin challenges Biden to debate after president calls him a ‘killer’ [Putin knows Joe isn’t all there.]
https://abcnews.go.com/International/putin-challenges-biden-debate-president-calls-killer/story

White House shuts down Putin’s debate challenge, saying Biden is “quite busy.”  New York Post

@DailyCaller: BIDEN: “When President Harris and I…”  https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1372633536944046081

CNBC: IRS pushes April 15 tax deadline to May 15

NFL finalizes new 11-year media rights deal, Amazon gets exclusive Thursday Night package

  • Amazon is paying about $1 billion per year, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • ViacomCBS, Fox and Comcast (which owns NBCUniversal) are all paying more than $2 billion per year for their packages, while Disney (which owns ESPN and ABC) will pay around $2.7 billion annually, according to people familiar with the matter… pact that will run through 2033 and could be worth over $100 billion…

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/18/nfl-media-rights-deal-2023-2033-amazon-gets-exclusive-thursday-night.html

NYC man sells fart for $85, cashing in on NFT craze (Yet Powell sees no “disorderly market conditions”) https://nypost.com/2021/03/18/nyc-man-sells-fart-for-85-cashing-in-on-nft-craze/

The Fed balance sheet bubbled up $ 113.605B, led by the monetization of $87.993 of MBS.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

Months after Trump complaints, some courts are finding irregularities in 2020 elections
Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia court actions show some absentee ballot procedures imposed by Democrats violated state laws.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/thumonths-after-trump-complaints-some-courts-are-finding-illegalities

What is the punishment for the people that broke the elections laws and rigged a presidential election?  What is the legal recourse for Trump?  What is the punishment for Pelosi and the House for staging an impeachment on fake news and Trump exercising his constitutional rights?  This is the USA now.

Poll: 75% Support Voter ID Law, Including 60% of Democrats
Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Republicans support voter ID requirements, as do 60% of Democrats and 77% of voters not affiliated with either major party… black voters also favor voter ID, 69% to 25%…
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/03/17/poll-75-support-voter-id-law-including-60-of-democrats/

Here is another reason for the US border crisis:

Biden DHS secretary promises US will not expel unaccompanied minors
Mayorkas promised US will ‘care for that young child and unite that child with a responsible parent’
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-dhs-secretary-promises-us-will-not-expel-unaccompanied-minors

The Biden Administration Is Imposing a Media Blackout at The Border
The Biden administration is trying to hide the border crisis, issuing an unofficial gag order on Border Patrol agents and withholding information
https://thefederalist.com/2021/03/18/the-biden-administration-is-imposing-a-media-blackout-at-the-border/

@abigailmarone: [Press Sec] Jen Psaki says the WH will not release the pictures of border migrant facilities that Joe Biden has seen but they “remain committed to transparency.” [Not the Babylon Bee]

The MSM servilely accepts the WH blackout of news about the border surge because the truth would hurt The Big Guy.  This is the USA now.

@nytimes: The Biden administration is quietly pressing Mexico to curb migrants coming to the U.S., Mexican officials said, a move echoing Trump-era policy.

@ChuckRossDC: WSJ reports that China had veto rights over the scientists who could take part in the WHO investigation of coronavirus origins in Wuhan. The only American on the team was Peter Daszak. https://t.co/gkEdzmZde7

@MZHemingway: You can talk about the “U.K. variant,” “Brazilian variant,” “South African variant,” even “California variant,” and “New York variant,” but don’t you dare say, accurately, that COVID came from Wuhan or China.

@Doc_0: The abrupt disappearance of double masking is fascinating. Pulled out of thin air without a shred of science behind it; floated as a trial balloon by the high priests of the Church of Covid; trial balloon popped without making a sound and vanished without a trace.

@DailyCaller: Sen. @RandPaul to Dr. Fauci: You’ve been vaccinated, and you parade around in two masks for show…  You’re defying everything we know about immunity by telling people to wear masks who have been vaccinated.”

Teryn Clarke MD @MdTeryn: The MEDICAL DISINFORMATION is coming from the government, CDC, WHO, Fauci. It is not coming from the independent physicians who are telling the truth at great risk to themselves.

@TheBabylonBee: Biden Says Mask Wearing Must Continue Until Everyone Has Learned Complete Obedience to Government

@Travistritt: Most all major commercial airlines in America are now flying at full capacity. No social distancing. Why is it okay for the public to sit right next to each other on a flight, but not okay for them to sit next to each other in a concert venue, church or at school? [C’mon!  We know why.]

@Peoples_Pundit: Stop whining. @JohnKerry can fly first class without a mask while you hear repeated threats of criminal prosecution over the loud speaker every fifteen minutes because he’s privileged, and you are not.  The privileged are better than you.  Don’t you get that by now?

@disclosetv: China’s FM Yang threatens “firm actions” in response to “US interference” on arrival for Alaska talks: US is the champion of cyberattacksBlack Americans are slaughtered in the US; US uses military might & financial supremacy to pressure countries.

Sportswriter turned political pundit is vexing liberals.  Though not a conservative, Whitlock regularly inveighs against ‘woke’ culture and how the liberal agenda harms blacks.  Liberals loathe a high-profile black that speaks out against them and targets liberal icons like Lebron James.  He accuses China of fomenting racial antipathy in the US.

@WhitlockJason: At the behest of the Chinese Communist Party, America’s billionaire corporate elites, their millionaire media and social media influencers and millionaire politicians are directing the working class to focus their frustrations on the police and white supremacy.
    The elites want us to wake up every day worried about the police and white nationalist. This provides the elites the necessary cover to continue to fleece the working class and remake American society.
    It’s much safer to speak out against the Proud Boys and the police than the Crips, Bloods and Disciples dropping bodies in inner-city neighborhoods. The racializing of the tragic killing of female sex workers in Atlanta speaks to the level of control the CCP has over our elites.
    Imagine being dumb enough to think global corporations don’t serve China, its 1.4 billion citizens and cheap Asian labor. You don’t understand globalism. Our corporate elites are shorting America and going long on China.  The end game to all of this is if you point out China’s control and manipulation of American culture, you’re now expressing anti-Asian racism. Everything is racism. We are being played. OPEN your eyes and ears.

@rising_serpent: We never found out who shot Ashleigh Babbitt, why the Las Vegas shooter committed mass murder, or about the Tennessee bombers motives, but we knew everything about the massage parlor guy’s sex addiction in 12 hours, and the media and politicians still called it a h 

Well that is all for today

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

VP Biden Disrespected, Vaccine Debate NOT Allowed, Economy Still Tanking

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 472 3.19.2021)

Vice President Biden (stealing an election does not make you a legitimate President) is being disrespected globally.  They know Biden has dementia, and surely they all know he was cheated in by the Deep State globalists (this includes Republicans like Mitch McConnell).  Vladimir Putting has challenged VP Biden to a debate.  Of course, Biden, I mean his handlers, declined.  Kim Jung Un of North Korea will not accept a phone call from VP Biden, and the President of Mexico is the one who is going to crack down on the illegal immigrants on the southern U.S. border that is facing a meltdown.  There are consequences for fraud, and the entire world knows Joe and his crew are illegitimate and incompetent.

We are being told to take the CV19 vaccine by virtually all top politicians, but we are not being told much else.  Nobody admits or talks about all the CV vaccines being totally “experimental.”  That is a fact.  Even President Trump is telling people to get the vaccine.  Mr. President, can’t we have a debate about this “Warp Speed” project, which some experts in vaccines say has some big downside risks?  The answer is NO.  Debates are not allowed.  You are only allowed to submit and keep quiet or you will be removed from all social media.  Drug companies and politicians have no idea what the long term effects of CV vaccines will be.  There are also lots of reports of problems, including death in some cases that go unreported or under-reported.  This is nothing short of the biggest live drug trial the world has ever seen.  We are told that the multiple CV19 vaccines are safe, but many doctors say they have NOT been proven safe.  Some doctors also adamantly say to not take any CV19 vaccines.  Instead, take HCQ, Ivermectin and other treatments early on, and you will be cured.  All this to say you will not hear any debate on CV19 vaccines or alternatives to treat this virus.  As I said, debate is not allowed.  You are supposed to roll up your sleeve and agree to be a Guinee pig in the biggest global experimental drug trial in history.

The economy is still sucking, and a fresh 770,000 new unemployment claims this week proves it.  Some areas are doing better such as construction, but many other areas are far from back to normal and may never get there.  All this while the Fed and our politicians continue to spend money on a pace never seen before in human history.  What could go wrong?  Are we about to find out?

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 3.19.2021.

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VP Biden Disrespected, Vaccine Debate NOT Allowed, Economy Still Tanking | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog  Weekly News 

 

 

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I will see you MONDAY night.

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