APRIL 9/GOLD DOWN $13.50 TO $1744.10//SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TO $25.24//HUGE QUEUE JUMP AT GOLD COMEX OF 3.5 TONNES AS NEW STANDING RESTS THIS WEEKEND AT 83.3 TONNES//SILVER ALSO ADVANCES TO 14.8 MILLION OZ//MAY OI IN SILVER REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH AT 109,171 CONTRACTS//ONE COVID COMMENTARY TONIGHT//ANDREW MAGUIRE AND ALASDAIR MACLEOD: A MUST WATCH VIDEO//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE//ISRAEL VS IRAN/ USA DATA: PPI RED HOT//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1744.10   DOWN $13.50   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$25.24 DOWN  $0.27   London spot price ( cash market)

your data.

 
 
 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1743.00 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $25.25//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY KITCOL

 

 

PLATINIUM  $1194.00 DOWN $31.00

PALLADIUM: 2545.00 UP $0  PER OZ

 

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagle33

Even the TV pundits are now asking, without bothering to investigate, “what’s wrong with gold?” Yes indeed, what’s wrong with gold, other than a relentless daily cartel assault on PAPER gold. The physical coin premiums are widening out to spot. Gold Eagles are showing $200+ to spot, Silver Eagles $10+ to spot, if you can even find them. Supply and demand- fuggettaboutit. The more dollars printed the more valuable they become, and the more scarce gold and silver are the lower their prices go, so sayeth the Working Group.

Jim McShirley

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DATA

 
 
 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today  23/61   

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,756.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/08/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 04/12/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 10
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 18
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 6
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 23
709 C BARCLAYS 3
800 C MAREX SPEC 61
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 61 61
MONTH TO DATE: 21,991

ISSUED: 0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped:  10

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL. CONTRACT: 61 NOTICE(S) FOR 6100 OZ  (0.1897 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  21,991 NOTICES FOR 2,199,100 OZ  (68.402 tonnes) 

SILVER//APRIL CONTRACT

 

121 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 605,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2560 for 12,800,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $58,782   UP 2282

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:  $58,313 UP 1813 DOLLARS  

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?STRANGE!

A HUGE   CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:  A PAPER  WITHDRAWAL OF 2.67 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM GLD.

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE B OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD: 1,026.02 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER D0WN 27 CENTS

A NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHDRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULTS. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

574.868  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 163.26 DOWN $1.25 OR  0.85%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 23.42 DOWN $0.20 OR 0.85%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 3863 CONTRACTS FROM 156,229 UP TO 160,092, AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.33 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON THURSDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO A HUGE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//STRONG REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE GAINED A HUGE 5113 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 1099,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  0 MAY:  1099 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 1099 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM!

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 33 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR** 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL****

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC.

2021

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.800 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL

 

THURSDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT ROSE BY $0.33) OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE   UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS  WE HAD A HUGE NET GAIN OF 4962 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, THE HUGE GAIN WAS DUE TO i)HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  ii) GOOD REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A HUGE INCREASE IN SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER  TO 14.800 MILLION OZ, iv) STRONG COMEX OI GAIN AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

 

APRIL

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAR:

3392 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 3392 CONTRACTS) OR 16.960 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 485 CONTRACTS OR 2.422 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 16.960 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  16.960 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: : 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

APRIL: 16.960 MILLION OZ  (SILVER IN BACKWARDATION AND THUS DRAMATICALLY FEWER ISSUANCE OF EFP’S)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4014, WITH OUR  $0.33 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///THURSDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1099 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5113 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  $0.33 GAIN IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY WAS THE HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING AND OUR MONTH OF MAY’S OPEN INTEREST REFUSING TO BUCKLE MUCH TO FUTURE MONTHS. THE BANKERS SEE THE TEA LEAVES FORMING AND THEY ARE GETTING OUT OF DODGE IN A BIG WAY…TOO MANY LONGS (AND OUR WHALE) STANDING FOR DELIVERY…

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  1099 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 3863 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.33 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $25.51//THURSDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW APRIL.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 121 NOTICE(S) FOR 605,000, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6691 CONTRACTS TO 465,854,AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR  GAIN IN PRICE  OF $16.90///COMEX GOLD TRADING//THURSDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 9,386 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING RISING TO 83.315 TONNES, A GAIN OF 3.4995 TONNES

 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $16.90 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A HUGE GAIN  OF 9386 OI CONTRACTS (29.19 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2395 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  0 AND JUNE:  2395  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 2395.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 465,854. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9386 CONTRACTS: 6691 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2395 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 9386 CONTRACTS OR 29.19 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2395) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (6991 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  9386 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOLLOWED BY A MONSTROUS QUEUE JUMP TODAY FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH ON DAY 7 OF THE DELIVERY CYCLE TO   83.315 TONNES)  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) STRONG COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND ….ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING THURSDAY//$16.90!!.

 

 
 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON MAR  1)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 
 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

APRIL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 15,243, CONTRACTS OR 1,524,300 oz OR 47.41 TONNES (7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2177 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 47.41 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 47.41/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.335% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      47.41 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3863 CONTRACTS FROM 156,229 UP TO 160,092 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING// GOOD REDDIT// RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A HUGE INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL TO 14.800 MILLION OZ//., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.

EFP ISSUANCE 1099 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  0 ; MAY: 1099 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1099 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 3863 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1099 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 4962 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 24.81 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.33 GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 31.88 PTS OR .82%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 309.27 PTS OR 1.09%     /The Nikkei closed UP 59.08 POINTS OR 0.20%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.03%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.5566 /Oil UP TO 59.61 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.01 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5566. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5625   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6991 CONTRACTS TO 465,854 MOVING CLOSER TO FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $16.90 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING…WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (2395 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID OFF NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY.  

WE HAVE ALSO  LATELY WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2395 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;  AND APRIL:  0, JUNE:  2395 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2395  CONTRACTS.

YOU WILL FIND THAT WHEN WE HAVE A GOOD PREMIUM IN THE FUTURES/SPOT, THEN THE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS DECLINE IN NUMBERS.  THE COST IS JUST TOO MUCH FOR THEM TO ISSUE. TODAY THAT PREMIUM WAS SMALL AND THUS A LITTLE MORE THAN USUAL OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WERE ISSUED.

HOWEVER, WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE. EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. LONDON IS OUT OF METAL.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED 9386  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2395 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 6991 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL  (83.315 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWS MARCH:  (30.205 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $16.95)., AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE  NET GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,237 CONTRACTS.  THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 29.19 TONNES TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (83.315 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 9386 CONTRACTS OR  938600 OZ OR  29.19  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  465,854 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 46.58 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1448 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1448/2200 OR 65.85% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:103,182 contracts// volume extremely  poor/   //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  155,492 contracts//  volume:   extremely poor/ hopeless!/ //most of our traders have left for London

 

APRIL 9 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR APRIL COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
 
 
160,755.000 OZ
JPMORGAN
 
  5 kilobars
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz

70,217.784

brinks

 

2184 kilobars
OZ

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
nil OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
61  notice(s)
6100 OZ
(0.1897 TONNES
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
4795 contracts
(479,500oz)
 
14.91 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
21,991 notices
2,199,100 OZ
68.402 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i)Into Brinks:  70,217.784 oz  (2184 kilobars)
 
 
 
 
total deposit:  70,217.784   oz
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account
 
 
 
TOTA CUSTOMER DEPOSITS: nil  oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 1 withdrawals
 
 
i) Out of JPMorgan:  160,755.000 oz  (5 kilobars)
 
 
 
 
total withdrawals:  160,755.000 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 2  kilobar transactions (2 out of 3 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  1:   dealer to customer 

i) JPMorgan:  13,926.150 oz (JPMorgan enhanced)

 

 
 
 

The front month of APRIL registered a total of 4856 CONTRACTS for a GAIN of 1058 contracts.  We had  66 notices filed on THURSDAY, so WE GAINED A MONSTROUS 1124  contracts or an additional 112,499 oz (3.4995 tonnes)  will stand for gold in this very active delivery month of April./ This is a huge queue jump as bankers are now desperately trying to jump ahead of those standing trying to obtain scarce gold so as to put out  fires occurring elsewhere.

 

 
 
 
 

MAY lost 33 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1583.

The month of May is refusing to contract at all but these we will have a strong 5.0 tonnes or better gold standing for this non active delivery month.

JUNE GAINED 5595 CONTRACTS UP TO 384,548

We had 61 notice(s) filed today for  6,100 oz

FOR THE APRIL 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  61  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 23 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,991) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (APRIL:  4856 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 61 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,678,600 OZ OR 83.315 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices filed so far 21,991 x 100 oz  + (4856 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (61} x 100 oz which equals 2,678,600 oz standing OR 83.315 TONNES in this  active delivery month of APRIL. This is a HUGE/ATMOSPHERIC amount standing for GOLD IN APRIL, A GENERALLY STRONG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. 

 

WE GAINED A HUGE 1124 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 112,400 OZ WILL  STAND FOR GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS 

 

 WHAT IS CLEAR IS THIS: NOBODY LEFT THE GOLD ARENA 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

351,292.365 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.92 TONNES

326,724.655 oz  JPM  10.162 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

94,500.934 oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.93 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,313,193.996 oz                                     71.95 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 488.60 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 83.315 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  18,021,765.940 oz or 560.55 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,313,193.997 oz or 71.95 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,708,572.0 (488,60 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,708,572.0 (488.60 tonnes)
 
total eligible gold: 18,539,885.481 oz   (576.66 tonnes)
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 36,561,651.421 oz or 1,137.22 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  1010.88 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
APRIL 9/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/APRIL

APRIL. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
984,973.01 oz
 
 
CNT
JPM
DELAWARE
INT DELAWARE
HSBC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
 
oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
whatever enters the comex faults
leaves
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
121
 
CONTRACT(S)
(605,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
407 contracts
 2,035,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  2560 contracts

 

12,800,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer) 
 
 
 

total dealer deposits: nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposit into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

 
 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 187.285 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.84% of all official comex silver. (187.285 million/367.633 million

total customer deposits today: 0   oz

we had 5 withdrawals:

 
 
i) out of CNT: 717,952.030 oz
ii) Out of DELAWARE:  2881.528 oz
iii) Out of JPMORGAN: 124,633.000 oz
IV)Out of Int. Delaware:  99,061.944 oz
v) Out of HSBC:  40,444.52 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals 984,973.01   oz

We had 1 adjustments:  customer to dealer

I) Int Delaware:  584,771.390 oz
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 121.300-million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  368.618 million oz

a net 0.984 million oz leaves the comex silver vaults.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The month of April saw 521 contracts standing for delivery for a GAIN of 114 contracts.  We had 4 contracts served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 118 contract or 590,000 oz will stand for delivery over here instead of morphing into London based forwards.
 
 
 

May  LOST A NORMAL 6162 contracts to stand at  109,171 contracts. May is the next active month and it seems the cavalry are showing up for physical silver as well. Thus we have April, a non active month having an initial 14.8 million oz stand and May with open interest refusing to buckle. 

 

To give you an idea of the strength of the May contract, let us compare the open interest remaining today vs last year. At this same time, we had 63,708 oi contracts still outstanding on the May 2020.  This year:  109,171  still outstanding!!.

LAST YEAR 5143 CONTRACTS ROLLED ON APRIL 9 ; TODAY 6162!

WE HAVE 15 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE!

LAST YEAR WE HAD FINAL MAY SILVER OZ STANDING:  45.220 MILLION OZ/

June gained 114 contracts up to 730.

July gained 8478 contracts up to 33,097 contracts

 

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE OUR WHALE STANDING FOR SILVER METAL.  ERIC SPROTT’S FUND HAS NOTIFIED THE SEC THAT THEY ARE DOING A SHELF OFFERING OF $2 BILLION FOR SPROTT SILVER PHYSICAL FUNDS  (PSLV). IS ERIC TAKING ON THE CROOKS BY STANDING FOR METAL IN  MAY? THE MAY OI NUMBERS HAVE REMAINED EXTREMELY HIGH NOW FOR THE PAST 11 DAYS AS THEY REFUSE TO BUDGE. I NOW THINK THAT WE MAY HAVE TWO WHALES STANDING.  MAYBE MAINLAND CHINA?

 

The total number of notices filed today for APRIL 2021. contract month represented by 121 contract(s) FOR  605,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  2560 x 5,000 oz = 12,800,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (521) and the number of notices served upon today 121 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the April standings for silver for the APRIL/2021 contract month: 2560 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (521)  – number of notices served upon today (121) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 14,800,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE APRIL MONTH. 

WE GAINED 118 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 590,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 33,360 CONTRACTS // volume: extremely poor// volumes falling off a cliff// very 

 

FOR YESTERDAY  98,868  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ good

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO -0.89% (APRIL; 9/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO –1.90% to NAV:   (APRIL 9/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/0.89%(APRIL8/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/)

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 18.71 TRADING 17.58//NEGATIVE 4.45

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.67 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.02 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP $16.90 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF .36 TONNES FROM THE GLD//NVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.69 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.05 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES.

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD UP $13.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD… A DEPOSIT OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.62 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH//25: WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES//GOLD REST AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $7.75 TODAY://A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.42 TONNES OF GOLD: THIS GOLD IS BEING RETURNED TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND ON A PHONY LEASE SCAM//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.36 TONNES.

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 , NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.07 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A REMOVAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.27 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.23 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.98 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $37.40 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.44 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD  DOWN $21.00  TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.26 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.30 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.38 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.12 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $9.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WHOPPING WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.50 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65 DOLLARS; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.7 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.54 TONNES.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

APRIL 9 / GLD INVENTORY 1026.02 tonnes

LAST;  1035 TRADING DAYS:   +92.21 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 935 TRADING DAYS// +  276.73TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 7 /WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ. 

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 256,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ

APRIL 1.WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.898 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 417,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY REST AT 579.022 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.042 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER AT 5.20 PM:  1.949 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.253 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 582.596 MILLION OZ

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ./

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY,TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.486 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLVAT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 2.599 MILLION OZ WITHRAWWAL AT 5:20 ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/ (TOTAL SILVER LEAVING 4.085 MILLION OZ)

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; AT 3 PM: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.507 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366  MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.501 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 3.90 MILION OZ AT 5.20..: TOTAL LOSSS 10.4 MILLLLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 596.616 MILLION OZ

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 76 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.486 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.017 MILLION OZ

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.774 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 605.531 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1.WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.593 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

APRIL 9/2021
574.868 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)LAWRIE WILLIAMS:

OR

EGON VON GREYERZ// 

OR

Peter Schiff..

Peter Schiff: Inflation Is A Painful Tax

 
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 03:05 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

We’re told inflation isn’t a problem. But a quick trip out to the grocery store or to fill up your car with gas tells you otherwise. Prices are going up. Peter Schiff recently appeared on Tucker Carlson’s show to talk about inflation. He said the price of everything is going up and the value of everything is going down.

It’s clear that prices are rising. Peter said it’s going to get even worse.

You have to remember that inflation really is nothing more than a tax. Now, when the government spends money, they need to get money. The public has to pay for it. Normally, the government would raise taxes, and then the taxpayers send money to the government, the government spends it.  But we just passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill. Nobody’s taxes got raised. But we don’t get all this government for free.

So, how is the government paying for this massive stimulus spending?

The Federal Reserve prints the money and then the government spends it into circulation. But when that happens, the value of all the money that’s already out there goes down and now the price of everything that you want to buy goes up. And that added price is basically the inflation tax.

The Federal Reserve is printing money at an unprecedented rate. We’ve had 11 straight months of historically high money creation. The money supply expanded at a record rate yet again in February.

Tucker pointed out that this seems intentional – that the government is trying to pay for all of the spending  – making it less costly by devaluing the dollar. Peter agreed.

Well certainly, as you have inflation, you reduce the real value of the debt.”

But Peter said the government has no plan to pay off the debt. And the real problem is the amount of money they are going to have to spend just to finance all their current commitments.

This is a massive amount of money printing. It’s unprecedented inflation because it’s the money supply that is being inflated. And as a result, everything costs more, because we’re not producing more. It’s actually the opposite. Americans are at home. They’re not producing goods and services. Yet, we’re creating more money to buy the goods and services that fewer people are producing. More money, fewer goods. Prices are just going to keep going up and it’s not going to stop.”

Tucker pointed out that this looks pretty crazy from an outsider’s perspective. Peter said he doesn’t know how it looks to an outsider.

But I think to everybody that lives in the United States, it’s not going to look pretty. And the real problem is the Fed. The Fed pretends that it’s transitory. But when they have to admit that it’s not transitory the inflation rate will be far too high for the Fed to do anything about it. Because if the Fed actually raises rates to fight inflation, they’ll create a much bigger financial crisis than 2008 and the US government will be forced into insolvency.”

 
END

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

USA inflation has targeted lower income citizens 

(Bloomberg News/GATA)

U.S. inflation has gone K-shaped in the pandemic like everything else

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Alexandra Tanzi
Bloomberg News
Thursday, April 8, 2021

Low-income Americans bore the brunt of job losses when the pandemic arrived. Now they’re getting hit hardest by price increases as the economy recovers.

The headline consumer inflation rate in the U.S. remains subdued, at 1.7% — but it masks large differences in what people actually buy.

Some of the biggest price hikes of recent months, for example, have come in gasoline. A gallon of regular is up 75 cents since late last year –- adding more than $60 a month to the budget of someone who fills up with 20 gallons a week.

Food-price inflation is running at more than double the headline rate, and staples like household cleaning products have also climbed. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-08/inflation-has-gone-k-…

* * 

END

Robert Lambourne n the new Basel iii rules.  It may not hamper gold suppression much

(Robert Lambourne/GATA)

Robert Lambourne: Basel 3 rules may not hamper gold price suppression much

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Robert Lambourne
Thursday, April 8, 2021

This note considers the potential impact of the “Basel 3” regulatory standards of the Bank for International Settlements on the bank’s own gold banking business, which is of interest to gold investors mainly due to the regular trading the BIS does in gold swaps and other derivatives. 

These gold transactions by the BIS are perhaps the most obvious sign of regular and often extensive if usually surreptitious gold trading done by central banks. 

 

This trading in gold by the BIS is not consistent with the claim that gold is no longer of significance in the world financial system. A review of the BIS’ use of gold swaps as at February 28, 2021, is here:

https://www.gata.org/node/21002

Documentation relating to Basel 3 is extensive and it reflects the difficulties in regulating banks and other modern financial enterprises. The BIS’ summary of the Basel 3 standards is here:

https://www.bis.org/bcbs/basel3.htm

While it is frustrating to read such a vast swathe of bureaucratic pronouncements, regulatory rulings can have a large effect on real economic activity, as is highlighted in the instructive video presentation by Miles Harris here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXzHA-24YDg

An example Harris gives is that a more relaxed regulatory attitude toward mortgage lending has buoyed housing markets in many countries. His presentation deals mainly with how Basel 3 could affect monetary metals: 

Despite the difficulties in reading and understanding the documentation on Basel 3, the following conclusions may be drawn about it:

— Implementation of Basel 3 is being carried out via national regulators adopting the new BIS standards into their rules, with some differences in implementation schedule.

— The date for implementation of Basel 3 has been delayed by the BIS until January 1, 2023. The U.K. is heading toward implementation a year earlier. This early implementation is still provisional, as representations on its application can be made until early May 2021.

— All forms of gold, including physical, are required to be at least 85-percent funded with Tier 1 capital in accordance with the Net Stability Funding Ratio (“NSFR”) introduced in Basel 3. There is no reference in Basel 3 to physical gold being a Tier 1 asset itself.

— This funding requirement has upset the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), and the association considers that Basel 3 is likely to reduce gold trading among the association’s members, which is done mostly via unallocated gold accounts. Some historical comments from the LBMA on its desire to reverse the Basel 3 rules on the treatment of gold are here:

https://www.lbma.org.uk/alchemist/issue-97/regulation-update

— For those banks that trade gold assets, there are exemptions from the NSFR to the extent that there are gold liabilities to offset the gold assets. 

Before considering the impact on the BIS’ gold banking business, note that Basel 3 will also have an effect on the bank itself because of the gold bullion it holds for its own account. The latest published report from the BIS, the half-year report to September 30, 2020, reveals that the bank held 102 tonnes of gold for itself:

https://www.bis.org/banking/safinstats200930.pdf

This gold will require 85% funding via Tier 1 capital. As a practical matter this seems unlikely to cause any concerns for the BIS, as it already reports extensive margins of safety in all its current risk reporting, which is not yet covered by Basel 3 requirements.

The original BIS gold banking business prior to 2009, before the bank started using gold swaps regularly, was essentially straightforward and allowed central banks securely to deposit unallocated gold via the BIS at major gold trading centers without any political risk.

Hence a central bank would deposit gold in a sight account at the BIS (gold sight accounts are unallocated gold), the BIS would then open a sight account at, say, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the gold would be held by the Fed in unallocated form on behalf of the BIS. 

This meant that the BIS had effectively no exposure to gold price risk, and in the eyes of all the Basel accords, including Basel, 3 the bank would have no credit risk or political exposure, since the Fed is always considered sure to return what it holds in custody. The central bank making the original deposit into the sight account at the BIS would have avoided any political risk that the Fed would not return its unallocated gold. 

This route protected unallocated German gold held by the Bank of England during World War II, when German gold was placed in a sight account with the BIS, which then placed the gold in a sight account at the Bank of England. 

Under these terms of trade it would be quite perverse if Basel 3 treated the BIS as having an exposure to gold price risk, and consequently it seems safe to conclude that Basel 3 will allow this aspect of the bank’s gold banking business to continue without demanding that the BIS commit extra capital to support this activity.

What is less clear is the impact Basel 3 will have on the BIS’ use of gold swaps in its gold banking business. It appears from the BIS reporting that all gold swaps are carried out with commercial banks and not other central banks. Because the LBMA is expecting increased costs to be incurred by complying with the Basel 3 NSFR requirements, it seems likely that bullion banks will be less willing to enter these swaps if they will have to bear higher capital costs because of the NSFR. Under a swap, the bullion bank is due to get its gold back, so it has a gold asset and consequently should be affected by the Basel 3 NSFR capital requirement.

At this point it is important to consider who is driving these swaps: the BIS or its counterparties? 

History offers some clues.

Gold swaps were first carried out by the BIS in the 2009-10 financial year and were disclosed in the BIS annual report as involving more than 346 tonnes of gold at March 31, 2010. Here is a link to the annual report, with the relevant disclosure in Note 4 to the accounts:

https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2010e.htm

Although the BIS rarely comments publicly on its own banking activities, its first use of gold swaps was considered important enough to cause the bank to give some background information to the Financial Times for an article published on July 29, 2010, coinciding with publication of the bank’s 2009-10 annual report. The FT report is here:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3e659ed0-9b39-11df-baaf-00144feab49a.html

The general manager of the BIS at the time, Jaime Caruana, said the gold swaps were “regular commercial activities” for the BIS, and he confirmed that they were all carried out with commercial banks and did not involve other central banks. 

There was considerable comment on these gold swaps at the time. Their impact on the increase in the BIS’ holdings of unallocated gold was striking because 346 tonnes are not a small amount of gold. Gold market analysts such as Reg Howe and James Turk remarked that the swaps were much more likely to be driven by the gold market than by the BIS wishing “to optimize the return on their currency holdings,” a quote given to the FT.

The FT itself, in the above-mentioned article, commented as follows on the reasons for the swap. “Some analysts speculated that the swap deals were a surreptitious bailout of the European banking system ahead of last week’s publication of stress tests. But bankers and officials have described the transactions as ‘mutually beneficial.’ ‘The client approached us with the idea of buying some gold with the option to sell it back,’ said one European banker, referring to the BIS. Another banker said: ‘From time to time central banks or the BIS want to optimize the return on their currency holdings.'”

It is notable that none of these comments from the FT article focus on the gold market but implicitly accept that gold was essentially being used as collateral to support a dollar loan. The alternative, that the transaction was driven by the BIS to place more unallocated gold in the hands of certain central banks, is also an entirely feasible explanation, especially as it was at a time when central bank selling of gold had declined and when there was speculation about gold shortages.

Given the lack of transparency from the BIS and central banks in general about their activities with gold, it seems highly plausible that the BIS’ trading activities in the gold market, principally via gold swaps, are part of central bank efforts to suppress gold prices.

Consequently, we may draw two tentative conclusions.

— First, the impact of Basel 3 on gold swaps is likely to develop more slowly than expected by some commentators, given the delays and a more relaxed implementation schedule. The UK may yet decide to implement Basel a year later than current plans and thereby fit in with the BIS’ own date of January 1, 2023. So even if the LBMA cannot reduce the impact of the Basel 3 NSFR on its business, implementation still might be delayed.

— Second, will Basel 3 reduce gold swaps? There seems to be a broad consensus that Basel 3 will make gold trading more expensive, so efforts to suppress the gold price might become more costly. But it’s hard to know how important any such cost would be to those operating suppression policy.

At this point it is perhaps appropriate to remind readers why central banks are so keen to suppress gold prices and why it seems plausible that they might be ready to reimburse any higher costs of their counterparties to the gold swaps.

The short answer is provided by work done 20 years ago by Reg Howe on “Gibson’s Paradox” and in particular his review of a paper on the paradox by Professors Robert B. Barsky and Lawrence H. Summers. The original Barsky and Summers paper can be found here:

https://www.gata.org/files/GibsonsParadox-OriginalVersion.pdf

Essentially the conclusion Howe drew from the Barsky and Summers paper is that suppressing gold prices reduces real interest rates. An essay by Howe on this topic is posted at his internet site here:

http://goldensextant.com/Gibson%27sParadox.html#anchor82230

Given that the U.S. federal debt now stands above $28 trillion —

https://www.usdebtclock.org

— even minor changes in interest rates are of massive importance to those running the U.S. economy. A 1-basis point increase in effective mean annual interest charges increases costs to the U.S. government by $2.8 billion. Hence it seems plausible that the probably higher costs of gold price suppression brought on by Basel 3 may not alone be enough to stop the suppression and consequently stop or severely reduce the use of swaps by the BIS.

Perhaps in the end other considerations will be far more important to gold than Basel 3. Reports of physical gold shortages are increasing. One straw in the wind suggesting that gold price suppression might be close to ending is provided by the recent comment by Summers, a former U.S. Treasury secretary, that the United States has the “least responsible” fiscal policy in 40 years:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-20/summers-says-u-s-faci…

Also, the International Monetary Fund is apparently trying to wade into the debate about how to tackle high government debt levels

https://meetings.imf.org/en/2021/Spring/Schedule/2021/04/06/imf-seminar-…

Perhaps the IMF is going to remind interested parties of its contribution from 2012, which was described by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph in the UK as follows:

“So there is a magic wand after all. A revolutionary paper by the International Monetary Fund claims that one could eliminate the net public debt of the United States at a stroke, and by implication do the same for Britain, Germany, Italy, or Japan.”

Evans-Pritchard’s report on the IMF proposal, which itself is based on ideas offered by Henry Simons and Irving Fisher in 1936, is here:

https://www.gata.org/node/11846

Given the concerns expressed by Summers and the interest of the IMF in joining a public debate about excessive government debt, it seems that more people are coming to understand the excessive creation of fiat U.S. dollars in recent years (for example, cryptocurrency investors), and reasonable to assume that many governments are becoming aware of the extreme position facing the dollar, in view of the $28 trillion in US Federal government debt, a record that will keep being broken without some form of monetary resent. 

Keeping the gold suppression show on the road seems harder than ever, but given the scale of the debt problem facing the United States, Basel 3 may not really matter that much, so it also seems unlikely that the BIS’ use of gold swaps will reduce much because of Basel 3.

—–

Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.

* * *

iii) Other physical stories:

ANDREW MAGUIRE…

Andrew Maguire

10:27 AM (1 minute ago)

   

to Chris, me

Hi guys,

I attribute GATA’s work and argue why BIS will be good for gold.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J99fm7ssGIc

Alasdair provides some great insights on this and the wider markets.

Best

Andrew

Attachments area

Preview YouTube video Ep.35 Live from the Vault: China’s hidden gold reserves to crush the dollar. Feat. Alasdair Macleod

Ep.35 Live from the Vault: China’s hidden gold reserves to crush the dollar. Feat. Alasdair Macleod

 

India, China ramp up gold purchases as market starts recovering from pandemic pain

9 Apr, 2021 09:38

RT.com

India, China ramp up gold purchases as market starts recovering from pandemic pain

The demand for physical gold increased sharply in the spring season in India, China and other Asian countries, where the precious metal’s shine is appreciated the most, Nikkei reports, citing industry data.

Statistics showed that India, one of the top gold consumers, imported 160 tons of the yellow metal in March, 5.7 times more than in the same month a year ago, when the country was under strict lockdown. Gold purchases in the country practically stopped in April and May 2020, but started growing again since the end of the year. In India, gold is a highly valued status symbol, offered at weddings and other festivities. A large part of the population keeps their savings in gold jewelry.

Purchases of jewelry were also up in China, 2.6 times year-on-year in February, data showed. The beginning of last year saw demand in the world’s biggest gold consumer tumbling to multi-year lows, again due to the coronavirus crisis.

Global demand for gold dropped to its lowest levels since 2009 in the third quarter of 2020, according to World Gold Council data, partly driven by dwindling demand in Asia. The pandemic has forced traditional buyers to postpone purchases and investors to ditch holdings, while lockdowns have hit the jewelry market. China and India have seen a drop in demand of 25% and 48% respectively in the first three quarters of 2020.

end

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN at 6.5566 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.5625   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 31.88 pts or 0.92%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 309.27 PTS OR 1.09% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 59.08 POINTS OR  0.20%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED /

USA dollar index  UP TO 92.24/Euro FALLS TO 1.1894

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.11/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.68/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 59.61 and Brent: 63.01

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.29%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 0.74% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 01.03: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.87

3k Gold at $1744.20 silver at: 25.20   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 39/100 in roubles/dollar) 77.26

3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.68 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9252 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1004 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.29%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.675% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.349%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  DOWN  TO 8.15..

Futures Spooked By Hottest Chinese Factory Inflation Since 2018

BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 08:00 AM

US equity future struggled for direction after hitting an all time high of 4,102 as investors assessed economic growth prospects against renewed inflation concerns after Beijing reported that in March China experienced the fastest factory inflation since 2018, which weighed on Asian stocks, and dragged contracts on the duration-heavy Nasdaq 100 lower, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterating late on Thursday that inflation was not a worry. Emini futures were steady after the S&P 500 rose 0.42% to a record high on Thursday when the Nasdaq Composite added 1.03%. Treasury yields rose, as did the dollar, while oil was flat and the VIX dropped to its lowest level since Feb 2020 at 16.55.

“U.S. equities are holding on to recent highs with U.S. interest rates remaining stable and the economic outlook improving,” Steen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo Bank A/S, said in a client note. “We do not expect wild things in today’s trading session as everyone is waiting for the first-quarter earnings season to start next week.”

The big overnight event was the latest Chinese CPI and PPI prints, which both came in hot for March, as China’s CPI inflation picked up to +0.4% yoy in March after two months of deflation, primarily on higher fuel costs; in month-on-month terms, headline CPI prices increased 3.0%.In year-on-year terms, food inflation moderated to -0.7% yoy in March from -0.2% yoy in February, primarily on lower inflation in vegetable and pork prices. Deflation in pork prices widened to -18.4% yoy in March from -14.9% yoy in February primarily on a sequential decline, and inflation in fresh vegetables moderated to +0.2% yoy in March from +3.3% yoy in February. In contrast, non-food CPI inflation picked up to +0.7% yoy in March from -0.2% yoy in February, primarily on a significant rebound in fuel costs. Fuel costs increased notably by 11.5% yoy in March, from -5.2% yoy in February. Core CPI inflation (headline CPI excluding food and energy) increased mildly as well to +0.3% yoy in March from 0% yoy in February.

But most of the attention was on China’s PPI inflation, which picked up notably to 4.4% yoy in March from +1.7% yoy in February, the highest since July 2018. PPI inflation in producer goods increased to 5.8% yoy in March from 2.3% yoy in February, while PPI inflation in consumer goods, which matters more for CPI inflation, inched up to +0.1% yoy in March from several months of deflation. Among major sectors, inflation in the petroleum industry picked up the most, followed by the metal sectors and chemistry sector. Goldman expects PPI inflation to continue to accelerate with limited spillover to CPI.

Elsewhere, Powell signaled at an IMF event that the central bank was nowhere near reducing support for the U.S. economy, saying that while economic reopening could result in higher prices temporarily, it will not constitute inflation. Deutsche Bank analysts said the comments “offered fresh reassurance to investors who’d begun to price in earlier rate increases on the back of some very strong economic data in recent weeks”.

Looking at global markets, MSCI’s broadest gauge of world stocks set a record high in Asian trading, though it was down 0.1% at 0755 GMT. The index has gained more than 1.5% this week.

“As long as monetary stimulus is easy, as long as fiscal policy is easy, any hiccups in stocks are probably only going to find buyers,” said Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index edged higher, led by consumer-focused firms and construction and on course for a sixth straight week of gains, the longest run since November 2019 even though Germany and France, the euro area’s two largest economies, both saw unexpected declines in industrial production in February, suggesting that coronavirus restrictions are increasingly harming parts of the economy that have proved resilient so far. Germany has doubled its pace of Covid-19 vaccinations after a sluggish start, while Italy is set to ease lockdown curbs. Britain’s FTSE 100 hit its highest in more than a year, bringing gains for the week to nearly 3%, helped by the country’s speedy vaccine rollout. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Fuchs Petrolub shares jump as much as 5.7% after Baader Helvea upgraded the company to add, citing higher-than-anticipated demand for lubricants used in the automotive industry.
  • Puma shares surge as much as 4.6% to a record high, as UBS increased the price target on the sportswear brand, predicting a “strong start to the year” despite U.S. port congestions and recent issues in China.
  • Lonza shares rise as much as 3.1% as Tages- Anzeiger reported Swiss Interior Minister Alain Berset and company President Albert Baehny had a telephone conversation. Both parties are interested in intensifying cooperation, newspaper cites government spokesman Peter Lauener as saying.
  • JD Sports shares gain as much as 3.2% after Berenberg raised its price target to a joint Street-high, saying the impact of “sneakerheads” should not be underestimated. Surprisingly, while it has been perceived as a lockdown winner, JD Sports has not traded like one — or as a vaccine beneficiary, the broker said in note.
  • TUI shares drop as much as 7.9% after the company kicked off a EU350m sale of senior unsecured convertible bonds. Jefferies said the move is “a very short-term and insufficient liquidity fix.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as benchmark gauges in China led declines, with investors spooked by the fastest Chinese inflation prints. Japan’s Topix gained 0.6% and Australian stocks hovered near a 13-month high, with technology stocks providing the biggest boost after the Federal Reserve played down inflationary risks. South Korea’s Kospi touched the highest intraday level since mid-February.

Chinese shares, however, slid 1.5%, as robust domestic inflation data raised worries over policy tightening. Factory gate prices rose at their fastest annual pace since July 2018 in March. The Chinext index of Chinese small caps and the CSI 300 index each retreated more than 1%. SF Holding was the biggest decliner on the CSI 300 after reporting downbeat earnings. China Great Wall Technology and Shenzhen Inovance Technology also slumped. Tokyo’s Mothers index for startups outperformed, climbing more than 1%. Sector-wise for the region, information-technology firms contributed the most to the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s slide, while telecommunications companies rose, providing support.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index dipped 0.05% to close at 6,995.20, cooling off after five straight days of gains that capped its longest winning streak since Dec. 9. The benchmark added 2.4% over the holiday-shortened week, its best since Feb. 5. Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. was the worst performer on Friday, falling the most since March 24. Gold miners were among the top performers as the metal headed for the first weekly advance in three. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 12,574.35

Treasuries were lower, unwinding Thursday’s gains which were capped by NY Fed’s Lori Logan hinting the Fed could purchase more 20Y TSYs, as next several trading days bring key economic data and auction cycle beginning Monday. 10-year Treasury yields rebounded from Thursday’s two-week trough near 1.6%, to print at 1.6674% following the hot Chinese inflation data. As Bloomberg reports, most of the declines occurred during London session, with swap spreads widening into the move higher in yields; earlier, stronger-than-forecast Chinese PPI numbers were digested; selling is broadly consistent with profit-taking ahead of next week’s CPI report and front-loaded Treasury auction cycle starting with 3- and 10-year notes Monday and including 30-year bond Tuesday. 10Y yields had surged to the highest since Jan 2020 at 1.776% at the end of March as a string of strong U.S. economic data stoked fears of a spike in inflation that could force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than policymakers had so far signalled.

Bond yields across the euro region also rose. Italy’s 10-year yield jumped the most since February after Bloomberg reported Prime Minister Mario Draghi is bringing forward plans for as much as 40 billion euros ($48 billion) in new borrowing. German 10-year bond yields rose 2 basis points, moving away from the previous session’s 10-day lows.

In FX, the U.S. dollar index gained 0.2% but was set for its worst week of the year, weighed down by lower Treasury yields. The euro dipped 0.2% after hitting two-week highs in the previous session. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced after China said March PPI climbed the most since July 2018; the greenback gained versus all of its Group-of-10 peers, with commodity currencies such as the Norwegian krone and Australian dollar leading losses. The euro fell below $1.19 after reaching a more than a two-week high Thursday. Australia’s dollar slid by as much as 0.9% against the greenback, driven in part by iron ore which fell for the first day in the last seven.

In commodities, oil prices edged down as investors weighed rising supplies from major producers and the impact on fuel demand from the COVID-19 pandemic. WTI fell 0.35% to $59.38 a barrel, while Brent lost 0.5% to $62.87 a barrel. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,747 an ounce after jumping to a more than one-month peak of $1,758 on Thursday.

Looking at the day ahead now, we’ll get the PPI reading for March. In addition, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos and Dallas Fed President Kaplan.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,091.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 437.30
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 206.69
  • MXAPJ down 0.7% to 688.48
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 29,768.06
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,959.47
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 28,698.80
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 3,450.68
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 49,518.79
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 6,995.17
  • Kospi down 0.4% to 3,131.88
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $62.96/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,746.45
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.24% to 92.28
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.2 bps to -0.313%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1891

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The U.K. said it will decide by early next month whether Britons can resume taking international holidays on May 17, while implementing coronavirus testing rules that airlines criticized as too costly
  • U.K. house prices rose at the strongest pace in six months as buyers eyed a path out of lockdown and the government extended a temporary tax break on purchases, mortgage lender Halifax said
  • Italy is set to ease lockdown restrictions, lifting some curbs that have been weighing on the economy in the region surrounding Milan and across the country as the latest virus resurgence slows, officials said
  • Germany and France both saw unexpected declines in industrial production in February, suggesting that coronavirus restrictions are increasingly harming parts of the economy that have proved resilient so far
  • France’s budget deficit won’t fall below 3% of gross domestic product until 2027, the finance ministry said. While progress could have been faster, targeting a drop below 3% in 2025, that would have involved major spending cuts and tax increases, an official at the ministry said
  • Italy is bringing forward plans for as much as 40 billion euros in new borrowing as the cost of keeping the economy afloat drains the state’s coffers and street protests heap pressure on the government

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac markets end the week with a cautious tone as regional bourses failed to sustain the early momentum from the tech-led gains in the US where sentiment was underpinned as yields eased and Fed Chair Powell stuck to the dovish script. US equity futures thereafter pulled back from session highs after the E-mini S&P briefly breached the 4,100 level for the first time. ASX 200 (-0.5%) was lacklustre with strength in tech, telecoms and gold miners offset by a subdued broader market amid concerns that the vaccination programme could be hindered after Australia recommended to halt the use of the AstraZeneca (AZN LN) vaccine for people under the age of 50 which also placed doubts on local partner CSL that has a contract to produce 50mln doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) was positive after an attempt to reclaim the 30k level although has partially retraced the advances with the government and expert panel set to discuss COVID-19 measures for Tokyo today. There were also mixed earnings from retailers as Seven & I posted a decline in its full year net and although Fast Retailing reported improved results, its shares were subdued with the Co. said to be facing pressure from the US to take a clear stand against the human rights abuses in Xinjiang. Hang Seng (-1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.0%) weakened amid continued US-China tensions after the US Commerce Department added 7 Chinese supercomputing bodies onto its entity list for alleged support to the Chinese military and with the US Senate’s legislation draft stating that the US must encourage allies to do more in balancing and checking China’s aggressive behaviour, while the latest Chinese inflation data was mixed as CPI and PPI topped estimates Y/Y with factory gate prices at its highest in more than 2 years amid rising commodity prices, but CPI M/M was at a wider than anticipated contraction. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat as they took a breather from the prior day’s gains with demand subdued as Japanese stocks remained afloat and amid the absence of the BoJ purchases in the market today, while Australian yields were relatively unmoved following the 2025 Aussie government bond auction. PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.20% for a net neutral daily position. (Newswires)

Top Asian News

  • Didi Chuxing Plans to File for New York IPO in April: Reuters
  • For the Rich, Living in Asia Is Costlier Than Anywhere Else
  • Tencent- Backed Linklogis Rises 9.9% in Hong Kong Debut
  • TSMC Quarterly Sales Rise 17% After Surge in Chip Deman

Bourses in Europe trade mixed and continue to lack a firm direction (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%), with ranges of the price action also relatively narrow and contained following a directionless and uninspiring cash open. US equity futures meanwhile are similarly mixed/contained with modest underperformance experienced in the NQ (-0.1%) amid headwinds from rising yields and following the tech sector’s outperformance on Wall Street yesterday. Back to Europe, Spain’s IBEX (-0.2%) narrowly underperforms amid pressure from its financials exposure – with the banking sector among the laggards. Conversely, Switzerland’s SMI (+0.3%) gleans support from its vast healthcare exposure as the sector resides as the top performer. Overall, sectors are mixed with no clear theme nor risk biases. The tech sector is firmer with potential tailwinds from TSMC reported a third straight quarter of record sales, with revenue narrowly ahead of forecasts reporting a third straight quarter of record sales, revenue narrowly ahead of forecasts. In terms of individual movers, Credit Suisse (-1.3%) is pressured after the bank tightened financing terms it offers hedge funds following the Archegos situation, with the bank moving from static margining to dynamic margining which could reduce profitably for traders and force them to post more collateral. On the flip side, Tui (-5.3%) trades at the foot of the Stoxx 600 after it commenced a convertible bond offering of EUR 350mln which can be extended to EUR 400mln – with the proceeds to be used to improve its liquidity position.

Top European News

  • U.S. Tax Proposal Is ‘Very Interesting’, EU’s Breton says
  • U.K.’s Sunak Under Pressure Over Handling of Greensill Aid Bid
  • ECB’s Visco: EU Recovery Fund, Faster Vaccinations Are Crucial
  • Italy Set to Ease Lockdown Restrictions in Most of the Country

In FX, nothing new from Fed chair Powell to augment FOMC minutes or fresh catalyst for a rebound in US Treasury yields amidst relatively mild re-steepening, but enough it seems for the Dollar to regain some composure as the week draws to a close. Indeed, the index has rebounded from Thursday’s 91.995 low to probe above 92.300, with the ripples reaching all DXY components and spreading beyond to other Greenback counterparts as several psychological and key technical levels are being breached or rigorously tested. However, the Buck still has a long way to go before getting back on track, and the nearest hurdles come in the form of 200 and 21 DMAs at 92.330 and 92.363, then recent highs and 92.500 before the index even considers staging an attempt to revisit Monday’s 93.000+ peak. Turning to fundamentals, PPI data is due and could provide a guide for CPI next week.

  • AUD/NZD – The Aussie is underperforming across the board, with Aud/Usd struggling to retain grasp of the 0.7600 handle and Aud/Nzd fading below 1.0850 as the Kiwi maintains 0.7000+ status against its US rival ahead of the RNBZ next week. Hence, at this stage hefty option expiry interest in Nzd/Usd at the 0.6950 strike (1.2 bn) does not appear influential in contrast to expiries between 0.7600-20 (almost 1 bn) that could keep Aud/Usd capped amidst a suspension of AZN vaccinations in the state of NSW.
  • JPY – Having touched, but failing to pierce 109.00 vs the Dollar yesterday, the Yen has subsequently retreated through 109.50 on the aforementioned resumption of UST bear steepening that leaves JGBs with some catching up to do. However, 110.00 may continue to keep Usd/Jpy firmly in retracement mode after 2 consecutive rejections of the round number on Tuesday and Wednesday.
  • GBP/CHF/EUR/CAD – All conceding ground to the mini Greenback revival, as Sterling strives to pare declines from a deeper reversal to circa 1.3670 and under the 100 DMA at one stage (1.3687), but the Pound looks destined to give up more 2021 gains against the Euro as the cross approaches 0.8700 following a bullish close over 0.8670. Nevertheless, the single currency remains locked in its own battle vs the Buck around 1.1900 and the 200 DMA that comes in at 1.1896 today, while the Franc is pivoting 0.9250 and 1.1000 against the Dollar and Euro respectively in wake of lower than expected Swiss jobless rates. On that note, the Loonie is eyeing Canada’s labour report for independent direction between 1.2611-1.2555 parameters vs its US peer, and is also mindful that 1.2 bn option expiry interest at 1.2600 will be withdrawn barring execution at the NY cut.
  • SCANDI/EM – A bit of a double whammy for the Norwegian Krona as softer crude prices on balance compound considerably weaker than forecast headline CPI to leave Eur/Nok hovering near new wtd highs around 10.1270 compared to sub-10.0250 lows and Nok/Sek unwinding gains as the Swedish Crown holds above 10.2000 in Euro cross terms. Elsewhere, broad weakness vs the Usd and the Zar having to contend with Russia surmising that its Sputnik V vaccine is not as effective against SA’s COVID-19 strain, while the Cnh weighs up mixed Chinese data and Try digests latest CBRT survey findings revealing higher year-end projections for inflation and the 1-week repo rate, but significant Lira depreciation – see 8.00BST post on the headline feed for details.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures traded with modest losses in early European hours as the indecisive risk tone and firmer Dollar keep prices subdued but somewhat contained. At the time of writing, WTI resides around USD 59.50/bbl (vs 59.13-95 range) whilst its Brent counterpart trades near USD 63/bbl (vs 62.57-63.49 range). Futures saw a similar bout of pre-US-entrance choppiness as had been experienced throughout the week, with no specific fundamental catalyst at the time of the move. The narrative remains little changed as participants eye any demand impacts from the rising COVID cases among key consumers, prompting more stringent lockdown measures – with the German Health Minister today stating that nationwide measures are needed to break the latest wave. On the flip side, France has announced that the first AstraZeneca dose should be followed by a second dose of an mRNA-based vaccine for those under 55 years of age. Although this announcement may have been a function of the rare blood clots, this may provide more flexibility when it comes to the vaccination drive as the EU has secured more orders of the latter. On the supply front, Chinese oil giant CNOOC said today a fire that broke out on an offshore platform Monday was extinguished on Tuesday. The incident may affect its production by up to 600k barrels, or 0.1% of the annual total. Aside from the above, oil-specific news flow has remained on the lighter side. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are subdued as they track the firmer Buck, with the former back below USD 1,750/oz (vs high 1,757/oz) and the latter still holding its head above USD 25/oz (vs high 25.49/oz). In terms of base metals, LME copper remains softer whilst Shanghai copper and Dalian iron prices were pressured overnight by the firmer Dollar, indecisive risk tone – with some also citing fears over potential Chinese policy tightening following the inflation figures.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: March PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 3.8%, prior 2.8%, MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
  • 8:30am: March PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.2%; MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30am: March PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.5%, MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • 10am: Feb. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 4.9%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

It was yet another buoyant day for financial markets yesterday as remarks from Fed Chair Powell helped to sustain the ongoing strength in risk assets, whilst also putting downward pressure on Treasury yields. Although Powell’s comments stuck to his dovish messaging of late, they offered fresh reassurance to investors who’d begun to price in earlier rate increases on the back of some very strong economic data in recent weeks, not least with last week’s jobs report. In response to this, equity indices hit fresh highs across multiple regions, with the S&P 500 (+0.42%), the STOXX 600 (+0.58%) and the MSCI World index (+0.50%) all climbing to new records. That marked the 7th successive advance for the MSCI World Index, whilst the VIX index of volatility (-0.21pts) closed beneath 17pts for the first time since the pandemic began last year.

Looking at Powell’s remarks in more depth, he reiterated the extent of the damage to the economy and the labour market relative to its pre-Covid state, saying how eight and a half million people were still out of work, and that the “burden is still falling on lower income workers, the unemployment rate in the bottom quartile is still 20 per cent.” He also noted that the country’s disparate vaccination rates could pose a risk to the recovery, which “remains uneven and incomplete.” Notably, he said that the Fed wanted to see a succession of strong monthly jobs growth like the one in March, saying that “we want to see a string of ones like that so we can really begin to show progress toward our goals”. So the jobs reports over the coming months will be under intense focus from investors to see if they meet this criteria. In response to Powell, yields on 10yr Treasuries extended their decline, ending the day -5.5bps lower at 1.619%, though this morning they’re up +1.6bps. That level at the close yesterday was actually their lowest closing level in more than two weeks, and even with this morning’s increase, the decline in Treasury yields over the week so far (-8.7bps) puts them on track for their biggest weekly move lower since last June, which marks a reversal of fortunes from Q1 when 10yr Treasury yields saw their third biggest increase so far this century, having moved up by +83bps.

With yields continuing to move lower yesterday, this offered further support for tech stocks, which led the outperformance in US equities once again, as the NASDAQ rose +1.03% and the NYSE FANG+ index (+1.39%) recorded its 9th consecutive daily advance. Technology hardware (+1.64%), Software (+1.47%), and Semiconductors (+1.01%) were the leading industries in the S&P at the expense of cyclicals such as Energy (-1.36%) and Banks (-0.23%) which were strong outperformers in the first quarter when oil and rates rose sharply. Meanwhile financial conditions continued to ease, with Bloomberg’s index for the US moving to its most accommodative level since late-2018. And although we did get some worse-than-expected data on the weekly initial jobless claims, which came in at 744k in the week through April 3 (vs. 680k expected), if anything this just bolstered the view that the Fed will remain on hold for longer. Furthermore, the decline in the US dollar yesterday (-0.43%) has put the greenback on track for its worst weekly performance so far this year.

Overnight in Asia markets are mostly trading lower with the Shanghai Comp (-0.74%), Hang Seng (-0.72%), Kospi (-0.13%) and Asx (-0.45%) all losing ground. The main exception to this pattern this morning is the Nikkei (+0.38%), which has moved higher even as the Japanese government appear set to impose tougher restrictions in a few areas, with Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura saying that they would seek to introduce them in Tokyo, Kyoto and Okinawa. Separately in South Korea, the country said that social distancing measures would stay in place for another 3 weeks, which includes a limit on gatherings of more than 5 people. In terms of economic data, the Chinese inflation release has showed that PPI inflation rose to +4.4% yoy in March (vs. +3.6% expected), which is the fastest pace of price growth since July 2018. Meanwhile CPI also printed higher at +0.4% yoy (vs. +0.3% expected). Outside of Asia, equity futures are pointing higher once again in both the US and Europe, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.14% this morning, suggesting yet another rise from the index’s latest record high.

Looking at yesterday’s other moves, European equities were similarly buoyant as mentioned with the STOXX 600 at a fresh record, though they’d closed for the day by the time Powell started speaking. A number of new milestones were reached, with the CAC 40 (+0.57%) at a post-GFC high, whilst the FTSE 100 (+0.83%) reached a post-pandemic high. For sovereign bonds it was a strong day once again as well, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.2bps), OATs (-0.8bps) and BTPs (-3.0bps) all moving lower.

In terms of the latest on the pandemic, vaccination numbers have continue to improve around the world. France met its target of vaccinating 10 million residents with a first shot one week ahead of schedule as the country is in the midst of its third national lockdown. Separately, Bloomberg reported new numbers on the number of Covid-19 vaccinations that have been exported from the EU, with over 80 million vials having been sent abroad –of which nearly 40% have gone to the UK and Japan. By comparison, 112 million shots have been delivered to EU member states through April 5th, and although various EU leaders have called for slowing vaccine exports, there has yet to be a meaningful change in policy. Over in the US, the 7-day average of vaccinations doses rose to 3.04 million per day, which comes as eligibility for the shot has increased to include almost all US adults. Even as the vaccination program continues at pace however, cases are increasing in spots all across the country – Florida saw its most cases since early February, Ohio rose by its most in nearly a month, and Wisconsin saw the most new cases in nearly two months. The latter two were driven primarily by new variants.

Back to Europe, and yesterday saw the release of the minutes from the ECB’s March meeting, which showed that all of the Governing Council supported the move to use the flexibility built into PEPP to increase the pace of bond purchases, provided that the size of the overall PEPP envelope was not on the table. Our chief European economist Mark Wall has a write up of the minutes (link here), and he notes that the hawks are stretching their wings by making this the price of their support. On the question of reviewing the pace of purchases, the minutes showed that the Governing Council “would undertake a quarterly joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook in order to determine the pace of purchases”, but it also said that there should be flexibility applied in the intervening period to determine the pace according to market conditions. Against this backdrop, 5y5y forward inflation swaps for the Euro Area hit their highest level since early 2019 yesterday, rising another +0.5bps to 1.565%.

Wrapping up with yesterday’s data, German factory orders rose by +1.2% in March as expected, though the previous month figures was revised down to show +0.8% growth (vs. +1.4% previously). Staying on Germany, the March construction PMI rose to 47.5, its highest level since August, while the UK’s construction PMI rose to 61.7 (vs. 55.0 expected), which was its highest level since September 2014. Finally, the Euro Area PPI reading for February rose to +1.5% year-on-year (vs. +1.3% expected), which is the fastest pace since May 2019.

To the day ahead now, and data highlights include German and French industrial production for February, as well as Italian retail sales for that month. Meanwhile in the US, we’ll get the PPI reading for March. In addition, central bank speakers include ECB.

end

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 31.88 PTS OR .82%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 309.27 PTS OR 1.09%     /The Nikkei closed UP 59.08 POINTS OR 0.20%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.03%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.5566 /Oil UP TO 59.61 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.01 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5566. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5625   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

END

3 C CHINA

CHINA/TAIWAN

Taiwan warns that it will shoot down any Chinese drones deemed a threat

(zerohedge)

Taiwan Warns It Will Shoot Down Chinese Drones Deemed A Threat

 
THURSDAY, APR 08, 2021 – 06:40 PM

Should the currently soaring China-Taiwan-US tensions go “hot” – or essentially from a scenario of verbal conflict and threats to a shooting war, this is most likely the direct path it would take: Taiwan’s military has warned it will shoot down any Chinese drone deemed a threat that enters its defense zones.

“Taiwan has spotted Chinese drones circling the Taipei-controlled Pratas Islands in the South China Sea and may shoot them down if they stray too close, a government minister said on Wednesday, a move that could dramatically increase tensions with Beijing,” reports Reuters.

A top official who heads the governments Ocean Affairs Council which overseas the island’s coast guard, Lee Chung-wei, had this to say in his testimony before parliament:

“They have never entered our restricted waters and airspace, they’ve just flown around them at a certain distance,” Lee said.

While China recognizes no Taiwanese claims of sovereignty, its aircraft and ships generally stay outside Taiwan’s restricted zone, which extends 6 km from its coast.

Asked how the Coast Guard would react if a Chinese drone entered that restricted zone, Lee said they had rules of engagement.

“After it enters it will be handled under the rules. If we need to open fire, we open fire.”

Worrisomely the blunt statements on rules of engagement which serve as a warning to Beijing come precisely at a moment that’s seen Chinese aerial incursions grow more brazen.

For example at the end of last month China’s Air Force sent no less than 20 aircraft to breach Taiwan’s southwest defense sector on a single day, which included four nuclear-capable H-6K bombers along with fighter jet escorts. 

Such incursions have recently become a daily event…

China has also upped its military exercises in contested waters near Taiwan, which it said this week will now be conducted at “regular” intervals. This means it’s likely only a matter of time before a Chinese drone from one of these exercises “strays” into Taiwan’s airspace or makes a threatening maneuver near a Taiwan coastal defense installation… and no doubt China would respond with a larger attack, sparking a ‘hot conflict’.

The question that would remain is whether the US would jump in, or stay on the sidelines in avoidance of a large, disastrous war in the South Pacific.

end

China In New Threat To Taiwan: “Island’s Military Won’t Stand A Chance”

(ZEROHEDGE)
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 03:55 PM

China’s prominent English-language state media mouthpiece Global Times on Friday published a fiery editorial which conveys the mood in Beijing at a moment of unprecedented ratcheting tensions surrounding Taiwan. If China chooses to invade the breakaway democratic island, then Taiwan’s military “won’t stand a chance” it said.

The article further attacked Taiwan’s pro-independence movement and its external backers, saying the people of Taiwan are currently “dashing into a war that they cannot win.”

Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning passes through the Miyako Strait near Okinawa, via Japan’s Defense Ministry on April 4, 2021.

At the moment China’s PLA military is flexing as both a warning to Taipei and also American naval patrols in the South China Sea, given over past days there’s been repeat air and naval incursions into Taiwan-claimed territory surrounding the island. 

The column by GT’s defense analyst Liu Xuanzun spells out this ‘warning’ precisely by quoting an unnamed “military expert”:

Another military expert who requested anonymity told the Global Times that Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities are seeking secession at the cost of ordinary people in Taiwan by tying them onto the chariot of the “Taiwan independence” forces and dashing to a war that they cannot win.

The PLA exercises are not only warnings, but also show real capabilities and pragmatically practicing reunifying the island if it comes to that, the analyst said. “The island’s military won’t stand a chance.”

It stated that Beijing currently has “no choice” but to enter a state of “enhanced war preparedness”.

The author additionally accused the US Navy of stoking tensions by sailing the USS John S. McCain destroyer through the Taiwan Straits on Wednesday, and then sending the US Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group into the South China Sea the day after. 

The column said that Beijing is also monitoring new reports of Taiwan’s military preparing to shoot down any threatening Chinese drones should they ‘stray to close’ to the island’s defenses.  

GT ascribed all of these things and the new tensions ultimately to Taiwan “secessionists’ hype of PLA threats” – but which will ultimately come to nothing in the face of the vastly superior mainland forces.

“Taiwan secessionists’ hype of PLA threats is crying for help from countries like the US and Japan, since they know they are powerless and want to make the Taiwan question an international one, Shi Hong, Executive Chief Editor of the Chinese mainland magazine, Shipborne Weapons, told the Global Times,” the state publication said. “PLA’s exercises from all directions of the island showed that mainland forces can isolate the island’s troops and cut off foreign intervention, and the US will not be able to come to Taiwan secessionists’ aid if a situation arises, Shi said.”

But this latter point is anything but certain, given by all appearances the Biden administration is acting just as hawkish on China than even Trump – or perhaps some might argue even more so.

END
 
CHINA/USA/
The USA adds Chinese supercomputing companies to their trade bracklist
(zerohedge)

US Adds Chinese Supercomputing Companies To Trade Blacklist

 
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 08:36 AM

While Asian nations gently encourage President Biden to consider abandoning President Trump’s trade war against the Chinese – a trade war he has maintained for purely political reasons (he can no longer risk being seen as ‘soft’ on China for obvious reasons) – his administration is doing the exact opposite: they’re charging ahead.

The FT reports that the US Commerce Department has placed a gaggle of state-linked Chinese firms working on supercomputing technology on the “Entity List”, the trade blacklist that the Trump Administration once used to bring Huawei to its knees (pressure that Biden is now relieving). Companies on the trade blacklist can’t do business with American firms unless they obtain a special license from the US government.

The US has placed Chinese groups accused of building supercomputers to help the Chinese military on an export blacklist, the first such move by the Biden administration to make it harder for China to obtain US technology.

Three companies and four branches of China’s National Supercomputing Center were added to the US government “entity list”, which bars American companies from exporting technology to the groups without a licence.

Commerce accused the companies of working on supercomputers for “military actors” and supporting programs for developing weapons of “mass destruction” – information likely gleaned from American intelligence.

The US commerce department said the groups were involved in building supercomputers used by Chinese “military actors” and facilitating programmes to develop weapons of mass destruction.

“Supercomputing capabilities are vital for the development of many — perhaps almost all — modern weapons and national security systems, such as nuclear weapons and hypersonic weapons,” said Gina Raimondo, the US commerce secretary.

She said the administration would use “the full extent of its authorities to prevent China from leveraging US technologies to support these destabilising military modernisation efforts”.

The Chinese entities are Tianjin Phytium Information Technology, Shanghai High-Performance Integrated Circuit Design Center, Sunway Microelectronics and the National Supercomputing Center branches.

The US is worried that these technologies will help the PLA “close the gap” with the US military in the Pacific. For those who haven’t been paying attention, the Pacific, where the American Navy is actively engaged in pushing back against Chinese military expansionism, is the domestic front in a cold war.

But the even bigger concern here is that China is building these supercomputers with US military technology via a company called Phytium

The Chinese entities are Tianjin Phytium Information Technology, Shanghai High-Performance Integrated Circuit Design Center, Sunway Microelectronics and the National Supercomputing Center branches.

The US is concerned about China gaining access to American technology that helps the People’s Liberation Army close the gap with the US military and field weapons that could alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.

The Washington Post this week said Phytium designed semiconductors using US technology to power supercomputers being employed to develop hypersonic missiles, which are hard to detect because of their speed.

The newspaper said Phytium used technology from Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys. The entity list move would effectively prevent the two California-based companies from providing services and products to the Chinese firms. But it would not bar them from supplying the Chinese groups if that technology were produced in facilities outside of the US.

The Washington Post said Phytium outsourced the manufacturing of its chips to TSMC, the Taiwanese company that has become the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturer.

China’s propagandists replied to the news by proclaiming that the US “Entity’s List” is like an “honor list” for loyal Chinese firms.

 Beijing responded to the news Friday morning by threatening to take “necessary action” to retaliate against the US. Beijing has often threatened to add American companies (like Fedex, which became the center of a retaliatory investigation back in 2019) to an “enemies list”.

The question now is whether Washington will up the pressure on TSMC, the Taiwanese Semiconductor Giant from which the US is desperately trying to disentangle its supply chains, to drop Phtium and the others as a client.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/

Prince Philip dies at age 99

(zerohedge)

 

UK’s Prince Philip, Husband Of Elizabeth II, Dead At 99

 
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 07:05 AM

Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh and the husband of Britain’s long-serving Queen Elizabeth II, a critical figure in shaping the modern royal family over 7 decades, has died.

The Prince, who died at 99, was just months away from his 100th birthday. His passing was confirmed by the royal family on Twitter

Read the official royal statement below:

It is with deep sorrow that Her Majesty The Queen announces the death of her beloved husband, His Royal Highness The Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh.

His Royal Highness passed away peacefully this morning at Windsor Castle.

Further announcements will made in due course.

The Royal Family join with people around the world in mourning his loss.

The Duke was married to Queen Elizabeth II for more than 70 years and became the longest-serving consortin British history. He carried out an active public schedule into his 90s, though he retired from public duties back in 2017, when he made his final official appearance at a Royal Marine parade at Buckingham Palace. Still, he continued to make appearances reflecting his own charitable interests.

The Prince’s sometimes outspoken remarks in later years made him a target of progressives around the world, and that anger was seemingly reinvigorated after the Prince’s grandson, Prince Harry, and his wife, Megan Markle, accused the Royal Family of racism during a recent interview with Oprah Winfrey.

A meme featuring a photo of the elderly prince being driven back from the hospital went viral, as some twitter users joked that the Prince was “afraid” to meet Princess Diana in the afterlife.

While the Prince died a royal, his early years were marked by hardship. Prince Philip’s father effectively abandoned the family when the prince was 9, and his mother suffered a nervous breakdown and spent many years in mental health clinics. Prince Philip eventually was sent to live with relatives in England. He was sent to boarding school at Gordonstoun, a private institution in Scotland with a reputation for strict discipline.

After graduation, the prince attended the Royal Naval College in the town of Dartmouth, where he met the future queen, during a visit by the royal family in 1939. Philip, then 18, was taken to see the 13-year-old Princess Elizabeth and her sister who were playing with a clockwork train, according to a biography of the Prince. Allegedly, the new friendship was sealed with ginger crackers and lemonade, and by a game of tennis.

WSJ wrote that Philip’s passing marks “the start of a generational transition for Britain’s royal family, which has been a bastion of stability for the nation since Queen Elizabeth ascended the throne in 1952.” Queen Elizabeth is increasingly stepping back from royal duties, with their eldest son, Prince Charles, and grandson Prince William (along with his wife, Catherine, Dutchess of Cambridge) moving to take over instead.

end
Monetary policy in the USA is in a mess: Europe is even worse!
Brendan Brown/Mises

Monetary Policy In America Is A Mess; Things Are Even Worse In Europe

 
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Brendan Brown via The Mises Institute,

High inflation takes off where political forces are too strong to permit the implementation of harsh remedial measures with respect to taxation and monetary policy such as to prevent an implosion of the national currency. In the contemporary global financial marketplace, there has been fluctuating concern about the US heading toward this point, albeit at a highly uncertain date, as evidenced by waves of attack last spring, summer, and autumn on the US dollar. In reality, though, the long-run inflation threat level is higher in Europe than the US. 

Any substantial European remedial action sufficient to arrest in the future a threatened emergence of high consumer price inflation would unleash forces which could potentially sweep away the present status quo of political and economic power. Hence, whatever the immediate cause of the inflation acceleration, we should expect a consensus of policymaking elites—Berlin in full acquiescence—to kick the can down the road.

Currency depreciation is likely to be a crucial part of the dynamic process of high inflation emerging in Europe, as has indeed been the case so often in the laboratory of history. That laboratory lesson indeed applies to the US, and importantly to the origins of the greatest peacetime inflation, which started in the early to mid-1960s.

The story started with the economic miracles in Europe (France, Italy, Germany) and Japan. The Fed, as the monetary hegemon within the Bretton Woods System, should have allowed interest rates to rise sharply as would have occurred under a sound money regime. Instead, the Fed in tune with the aim of the Kennedy administration to repudiate the stop-go policies of the 1950s, steered monetary policy such as to keep interest rates low. As high consumer price inflation emerged from 1965, with a lag behind asset inflation, the Fed did start to let rates rise, even abruptly at times. Sustained bold action, however, would have pushed up dramatically the cost of public sector borrowing, which was then bulging as the Johnson administration waged war in Vietnam and enacted the social programs of the Great Society. 

Fed chief William McChesney Martin had no appetite or political basis to embark on a collision course with the Johnson administration, and anyway he espoused the view that his institution was “independent within government” not “independent of government.” The dollar was ostensibly ailing, as illustrated by a rising free price of gold from spring 1968 and the DM revaluation of the following year.

The high consumer price inflation scenario for the US which many have in mind now for the years ahead is unlikely to feature economic miracles outside the US as in the 1960s. Plausibly, a key part of the story could be sustained private sector economic strength, which calls for much higher rates and which the Fed cannot deliver.

A growth cycle downturn or even recession in 2022/23 might interrupt the journey for some time to this destination. But when high CPI inflation eventually emerges, opposition to higher conventional taxation or cutting public expenditure is likely to be strong. Also, with so much corporate and mortgage debt outstanding, howls would be tremendous against any remedial monetary action which would mean higher interest rates. Hence the Fed may well settle for “kicking the can down the road.”

That conclusion, though, is not certain. There are alternative less likely scenarios where forces opposed to such cynicism could win the political majority, and the Fed has plenty of technical scope to “normalize” monetary conditions. As illustration, the Fed could liquidate Its vast portfolio of Treasury securities over a short period as part of an operation to restore monetary base to an effective anchor role.

It is quite different in Europe. There, “it is too late to go back” is a phrase whose infamy goes all the way back to Emperor Franz-Josef’s refusal in late July 1914 to soften Vienna’s ultimatum to Belgrade. A century plus later, it will almost certainly be too late to go back with respect to the degraded euro. Whenever the European economy gets into a sustained recovery track out of the pandemic, the ECB will not allow rates to rise in line with any incipient rise of consumer price inflation. 

A look at the ECB balance sheet explains the hypothesized obduracy. By the end of 2021, this is headed to 80 percent of eurozone GDP, versus the Fed’s balance sheet at just under 40 percent. Whereas the Fed’s balance sheet is made up almost entirely of loans to the US government (mainly Treasuries) and government-sponsored mortgage debt, the ECB’s consists largely of junk or borderline junk, including vast holdings of weak sovereign debt (no. 1 Italy). Loans to a virtually bankrupt banking sector amount to a third of total ECB assets. On top of that, the Italian and Spanish central banks have borrowed over €1 trillion of debt within the so-called TARGET2 system with the Bundesbank, the chief creditor on the other side. 

Let’s go through the thought experiment of the ECB embarking on a monetary normalization course which would have as consequence market interest rates rising 200 basis points across the board and slimming down the balance sheet by, say, 25 percent as a first stage to reestablish monetary base as anchor to the system. The weak banks could simply not pay the added interest rate cost to the ECB on their vast indebtedness given their lack of scope to raise rates on their loans to weak sovereigns and corporates. One way or another they would have to get subsidies to pay the interest—but how can critically weak sovereigns afford this except via ECB money printing? Resentment from the “frugal north” and EU laws against state aid would impede action.

A Green-CDU (Christian Democratic Union) coalition in Berlin such as is likely to emerge from this autumn’s elections according to present polling would have no wish to break European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) up. Holding the status quo together means giving a nod to the ECB to keep rates down (at present subzero) and spare us all these traumas. In the same vein, just imagine the system stress if the Bundesbank demanded that the Banca d’Italia pay interest on its debit balance within TARGET2, or if the ECB toward restoring monetary base as anchor had to liquidate 20 percent of its Italian government debt holdings as part of a general cutback. Better just to allow inflation to rise.

The dynamics of the inflation path would depend crucially on the behavior of the euro. If the US is by then reining back monetary radicalism in the context of accelerating inflation, then Europe’s currency fall could indeed be breathtaking. Even if political forces in Germany against high inflation gather power under such circumstances, that would not slow the fall of the euro. In any breakup scenario for the EMU, including the opening of a path to a new hard euro, the ECB faces liquidation first.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

/UKRAINE/USA

USA delivers military cargo to the Ukraine

(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

US Delivers Military Cargo To Ukraine As It Hypes Russian Military Movements

 
THURSDAY, APR 08, 2021 – 09:40 PM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

While hyping the movement of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine, the US has delivered multiple military shipments to Kyiv.

Newsweek report that cited local media said that over the past two weeks, the US had made three military cargo deliveries to Ukraine. On March 25th, 350 tonnes of cargo was delivered by ship to the Black Sea port city of Odessa in southern Ukraine. Included in the delivery were 35 Humvees.

 

US Air Force C-130J Super Hercules in Odessa, illustrative file image: Defence-blog

“The U.S. has reportedly delivered three military cargoes to Ukraine in the last fortnight amid growing international demands for Russia to explain its troop build-up on the border with its neighbor,” Newsweek said.

On April 2nd, a US Air Force C-17A Globemaster III military transport aircraft flew to Kyiv from a US base in Germany. On April 4th, another C-17A Globemaster III landed in the western city of Lviv. It’s not clear what the planes were carrying, but the C-17A Globemaster IIIs can transport up to 102 troops and 77 tons of cargo.

Since the US-backed coup in Kyiv in 2014 that sparked the fighting in the eastern Donbas region, the US has provided Ukraine with more than $2 billion in military aid. The Pentagon recently announced a new $125 million package for Ukraine that includes armed patrol boats, and another $150 million is expected to be provided sometime this year.

The news of the military deliveries come as tensions in the region are skyrocketing. Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky is calling for Ukraine to become a full-fledged member of NATO and is traveling to the conflict zone in Donbas on Thursday.

 
 

6.Global Issues

NONE TODAY
 
CANADA
According to MNP 53% of all Canadians are on the brink of insolvency
(zerohedge)
 

53% Of Canadians On Brink Of Insolvency

 
THURSDAY, APR 08, 2021 – 11:20 PM

53% of Canadians are on the verge of insolvency and are $200 or less away from not being able to pay their monthly bills and obligations, while 25% took on more debt during the pandemic, according to a new survey by MNP.

The news comes as Canada’s MNP consumer debt index hits a five-year high, and is a 10-point jump from a December survey, according to Bloomberg.

The anxiety Canadians are feeling about making ends meet – or already unable to do so – tells us we may eventually see an avalanche of households falling behind on payments or defaulting on loans, mortgages, car payments or credit cards,” said MNP president, Grant Bazian, in a Thursday report, which noted that government support programs which were meant to be temporary have alleviated the pain to some degree.

Households may have tried to save more and spend less amid the pandemic, and – to be fair – some have been very successful at doing just that. However, there are others who have taken on more debt due to job loss, wage reductions or desperately trying to keep small businesses afloat. 

According to MNP, a quarter of Canadians took on more debt amid the pandemic. Among respondents, 20 per cent said they used savings to pay bills, 14 per cent used credit cards, seven per cent used a line of credit, while three per cent took out a bank loan or deferred mortgage payments, respectively. -Bloomberg

“Those taking on more debt are becoming increasingly vulnerable to interest rate increases in the future. They might find that their debt becomes unaffordable when that happens,” Bazian wrote.

According to Pattie Lovett-Reid, Chief Financian Commentator for CTV, “Higher rates should be a real concern to those who borrow and naively think rates won’t head higher once the economy warrants it. In fact, I find it outrageous that six in ten respondents said that the current low-rate environment makes it a good time to buy things they might not otherwise be able to afford,” adding: “We need to stop spending if we can’t afford it – now.

As far as solutions go, Bazian recommended that a Licensed Insolvency Trustee be established to help consumers set up monthly budgets, refinance credit, consolidate debts, negotiate with creditors, sell high-value assets that might provide additional cashflow – and of course, declare bankruptcy.

end

Rabo: One Man Is Responsible For The Market Reaching Its Impossible Dream… And It’s Not Powell

 
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 10:15 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Man of La Manchin(a)

“To dream the impossible dream; To fight the unbeatable foe; To bear with unbearable sorrow; To run where the brave dare not go

To right the unrightable wrong; To love pure and chaste from afar; To try when your arms are too weary; To reach the unreachable star

This is my quest to follow that star; No matter how hopeless, no matter how far; To fight for the right; Without question or pause; To be willing to march; Into hell for a heavenly cause

And I know if I’ll only be true; To this glorious quest; That my heart will lie peaceful and calm; When I’m laid to my rest

And the world will be better for this; That one man, scorned and covered with scars; Still strove with his last ounce of courage; To reach the unreachable star; The fight the unbeatable foe; To dream the impossible dream!”

That seems to be the mood music at the White House; and the IMF; and the World Bank; and the Fed, and in fact most central banks. All of them are busy building back better-ly. Ambitious global tax plans are on the table to wipe tax havens off them; US spending plans are being pushed; and Treasury Secretary Yellen is talking about “labor vs. capital”: perhaps she will soon add “M > C > MP > C+ > M+” to underline how the economy actually works, which none of the neoclassical models at the Treasury or the Fed do?

Regardless, US yields are heading lower, the US dollar is heading down, and US stocks are heading up, in a continuation of their own long-running impossible dream. Let me tell you a tall tale: perhaps just one man is ultimately responsible for that right now – US Democrat Senator Joe Manchin. He appears on what some might see as an anti-quixotic quest that may stop the White House from tilting at any windmills (or solar panels or broader “infrastructure”).

Senator Manchin yesterday reaffirmed via a Washington Post op-ed that he will not back proposed changes to the Senate filibuster rule (“I have said it before and will say it again to remove any shred of doubt: There is no circumstance in which I will vote to eliminate or weaken the filibuster”) or support “shortcutting the legislative process through budget reconciliation.” Both of those statements, if not negotiating positions, will prove to be giants obstructing the path of President Biden’s domestic agenda. It doesn’t mean nothing will get done – but it means nothing like what some people were recently thinking was going to get done now will.

If so, as stocks and bonds ebulliently suggest, there is still a white knight to save us, however: those plodding Sancho Panzas turned would-be dashing Dons, our central banks. It is they who will continue to chase their own impossible dream of saving the world via yield curve manipulation and junk asset purchases without lancing price-discovery and capitalism at the same time. On a related note, Fed Chair Powell spoke yesterday against a backdrop of supply-chain stresses that mean Americans can’t get ketchup to go with their fries,…and explained he isn’t worried about inflation, but infections. As I keep repeating, this stance is only logically consistent if one really *is* thinking about labour vs. capital: but Fed policy cannot deal with that populist ‘red’ issue any more than it can with a popular red condiment. It’s all fiscal and political-economy, which seems a dream too far at the moment.

Some might think it remarkable that the fate of the US economy, and hence the world economy, can really turn on the actions of just one man. Welcome to the absurdity of real life. As Cervantes noted: “When life itself seems lunatic, who knows where madness lies? Perhaps to be too practical is madness. To surrender dreams — this may be madness. Too much sanity may be madness — and maddest of all: to see life as it is, and not as it should be!” At least Manchin was elected. By contrast, who elected central banks? (On which, what happens if the US, or anywhere, elects an administration which wants to move away from a green economy when their “independent” central bank has pledged to support the transition towards one? Has anyone thought about that, or are we all too busy singing from the same hymn sheet to suppose it could ever happen?)

Of course, there is still US bipartisan support for one epic struggle: China. The Senate is finalising “The Strategic Competition Act”, which mandates initiatives to counteract Beijing: the need to “prioritize the military investments necessary to achieve US political objectives in the Indo-Pacific”; increased funding for other militaries in Asia; expanding the scope of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States; calling for an enhanced partnership with Taiwan; and that Washington must encourage allies to do more about Beijing’s “aggressive and assertive behavior”. How many Euro Panzas will join this quest though?

Please don’t think this kind of chivalrous rhetoric is only heard in DC. A senior Russian military official yesterday stated the start of major military action in Eastern Ukraine would mark the beginning of the end for the country(!); and a Russian friend gave me an (unconfirmed) report that a TV channel he was watching last night had talking heads suggesting it was necessary to set off a nuclear bomb in the ocean to send a signal to the US –which is about to send naval vessels to the Black Sea– that they need to back off. One *hopes* this is all quixotic: markets certainly believe that to be the case, and so continue to rally on the new meme of –a lack of– windmills.

Indeed, let’s not worry: German Chancellor Merkel spoke to President Putin yesterday and apparently told him she wanted to see immediate de-escalation…or else she might not sell Russia any German cars; or buy Russian vaccine; or complete Nord-Stream 2 and tie the German economy into Russian gas supplies. Isn’t realpolitik a German word originally?

“Destiny guides our fortunes more favourably than we could have expected. Look there, Sancho Panza, my friend, and see those thirty or so wild giants, with whom I intend to do battle and kill each and all of them, so with their stolen booty we can begin to enrich ourselves. This is noble, righteous warfare, for it is wonderfully useful to God to have such an evil race wiped from the face of the earth.”

“What giants?” asked Sancho Panza.

“The ones you can see over there,” answered his master, “with the huge arms, some of which are very nearly two leagues long.”

“Now look, your grace,” said Sancho, “what you see over there aren’t giants, but windmills, and what seems to be arms are just their sails, that go around in the wind and turn the millstone.”

“Obviously,” replied Don Quixote, “you don’t know much about adventures.”

Or labour vs. capital; or realpolitik. But Happy Friday!

END

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 
 
 
END

 

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY  morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1894 DOWN .0022 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL MIXED 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.68 UP 0.351 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3718  DOWN   0.0024  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2567 UP .0004 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 22 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1894 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 31,88 PTS OR 0.92% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 309.27 PTS OR 1.07% 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.03% // EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang DOWN 309.27 PTS OR 1.07%  

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 31.88 PTS OR 0.92% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.03%  

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 59.08  POINTS OR 0.20%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1746.60

silver:$25.25-

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.675% !!! UP 5 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.349 UP 4  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 92.24 UP 18 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.28% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.11%  UP 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.38%//UP 5 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.74 UP 7 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 36 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.30% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.04% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1887 DOWN     .0028 or 28 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.69 UP .354 OR YEN DOWN 35  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3725 DOWN .0008 POUND DOWN 8  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 8 basis points to 1.2554

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (DOWN).. 6.5530

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.750  (YUAN DOWN)..6.5588

TURKISH LIRA:  8.17  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.11%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 1.660 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.324 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.27 UP 21  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 22.07 PTS OR 0.32% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 24.66 PTS OR .16% 

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 2.57 PTS OR .04% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN  66.30  PTS OR .77%  

 

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 121.93 PTS OR .50% 

 

WTI Oil price; 59.47 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.22 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    77.36  THE CROSS  HIGHER BY 0.50 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HLOWER BY 50 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.30 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM : 59.31//

BRENT :  62.98

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.662..up 3 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.338 up  3 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1904 ( DOWN 11   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.65 UP .319 (YEN up 32 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.16 UP 10 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3715 DOWN 19  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.17

the Russian rouble 77.37   DOWN 0.51 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 51 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2528  DOWN  36 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.30%

The Dow closed UP 273.64 POINTS OR 0.82%

NASDAQ closed UP 86.55 POINTS OR 0.63%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.01 CLOSED DOWN 0.15

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.188%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Panic-Bid To End ‘Inflationary’ Week, Dollar Dumps

 
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 04:04 PM

Including last Friday’s shortened day (during which futures were open around the payrolls print), Nasdaq has soared and Small Caps disappointed (especially notable given the spike in Small Caps on the jobs print). We must say we enjoyed the farcical ramp in the last few minutes of the day that sent ..

WTF!!!

But hey, the hottest PPI in 10 years is transitory and all that Biden bonanza money must be great

After 6 weeks of relative underperformance, growth is up for the second straight week against value as inflationary prints (US PPI and China factory prices) escalate (this was the biggest 2-week spike in growth over value since August)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Russell 2000 has been glued to its 50DMA for a few days now…

Rather notably the resurgence in Nasdaq relative to Russell 2000 came right as the pair unwound all the pandemic move…

Source: Bloomberg

All this exuberant big-tech buying has done nothing for SPACs or IPOs…

Source: Bloomberg

A chaotic couple of days in vol-land (no those are not bad prints, but those odd pukes we have seen time and time again. The late day spike in stocks appeared fueled by a pump’n’dump in VIX as perhaps RP strategies relevered…

After an ugly spike on last Friday’s payrolls (bonds were open half day), Treasuries have trend stronger with the belly notably outperforming the wings…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears the payrolls print spike pushed the belly (5Y) too rich and the 2s5s10s fly has now retraced back into negative territory once again…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields 1.65% strange attractor continues…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields trod water on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar dropped for the second week in a row but bounced today after the PPI print off the pre-FOMC plunge level…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin had a rollercoaster week but managed to end back above $58,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum was bid each time it dipped back below $2000…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold managed gains on the week but was very volatile intraday (note that Gold’s gains stalled at the earlier spike from mid-March)…

Oil had an ugly week, with WTI unable to hold above $60 (4th down week of the last 5)…

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as we noted earlier, it seems interest in buying VIX calls (implying equity downside protection) is soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

And this caught our eye, the correlation between gold and bitcoin has collapsed to a record low (negative) as it seems crypto is winning in the inflation hedge flows (for now)…

Source: Bloomberg

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//THIS MORNING

Stocks & Bonds Sink As BLS Website Crash Sparks Inflation Anxiety

 
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 08:52 AM

After China’s factory inflation surprised to the upside with the hottest print since July 2018, this morning’s US producer price data was highly anticipated and expected to surge to multi-year highs.

And it seems a lot of people are actually interested in how much of their dollar’s worth is being eaten away?

Which crashed BLS’ website…

As a reminder, over half of the inputs for the consumer price index calculation is estimated (translation: made up), so why not PPI too.

The wait has sparked some “he who sells first wins” anxiety in stocks…

And bonds as yields jump higher…

One word… “transitory

 
END
ii) Market data
PPI hot!!  huge jump in producer prices in March and this is a forerunner of price inflation
(zerohedge) 

After Unprecedented Delay, BLS Admits Huge Jump In Producer Prices In March

 
 
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 08:59 AM

After China’s factory inflation surprised to the upside with the hottest print since July 2018, this morning’s US producer price data was highly anticipated and expected to surge to multi-year highs.

As we detailed earlier, the data’s release was actually delayed it seems people are actually interested in how much of their dollar’s worth is being eaten away?

As a reminder, over half of the inputs for the consumer price index calculation is estimated (translation: made up), so why not PPI too.

And when it hit it was dramatically hotter than expected, printing up 1.0% MoM (vs +0.5% exp) and a stunning 4.2% rise YoY (+3.8% exp) – the highest since 2011…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 11th month in a row of rising PPI.

Over one-fourth of the March increase in the index for final demand goods can be traced to an 8.8-percent jump in gasoline prices. The indexes for diesel fuel, residential electric power, industrial chemicals, steel mill products, and processed poultry also moved higher. In contrast, beef and veal prices fell 4.3 percent. The indexes for fresh and dry vegetables and for surgical and medical instruments also declined.

Over 40 percent of the March increase in prices for final demand services can be traced to margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling, which jumped 6.7 percent. The indexes for apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing; transportation of freight and mail; portfolio management; loan services (partial); and food retailing also moved higher. Conversely, margins for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing decreased 4.2 percent. The indexes for automobiles and automobile parts retailing and for traveler accommodation services also declined

One word… “transitory“…?

end

U.S. producer price inflation posts biggest annual increase since 2011

April 9, 2021 at 9:29 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

The numbers: The producer price index rose 1% in March, the U.S. Labor Department said Friday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.5% rise.

The rate of wholesale inflation over the past 12 months climbed to 4.2% in March. That’s the highest level since September 2011.

The government did not release the data for 25 minutes after the scheduled release time, an extraordinary delay of economic data that is focus of global financial markets.

What happened: Most of the increase in producer prices last month was tied to higher costs of energy, which jumped 5.9%.

Core prices, which strip out volatile foods, energy and trade prices, rose 0.6% in March and were up 3.1% year-on- year, its highest level since September 2018.

Big picture: The strong gain in producer prices is the result of the U.S. economy gaining momentum. Federal Reserve officials expect these gains to be caused by temporary dynamics.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

ARCHEGOS
Sherrod Brown, Senator from Ohio demanding answers as to how Archegos could amass so much leverage and fail.
(zerohedge)

Credit Suisse Tightens Hedge Fund Lending As Senator Demands “Answers” From Banks On Archegos Blowup

 
THURSDAY, APR 08, 2021 – 05:20 PM

Reports about regulators (including the SEC in the US and the FCA in the UK) grilling the banks involved in the Archegos Capital Management blow up emerged just days after the $20 billion “family office” suffered an epic margin call that sapped all of its capital as brokers dumped blocks of shares as fast as they could, even as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs beat them to the punch.

As academics and former regulators chirped in the press about the need for more stringent reporting requirements for family offices (essentially private hedge funds comprising the wealth of a single individual or family), and more regulation of OTC derivatives trading, some joked that the main players would inevitably be dragged in front of the Senate Banking Committee for a hearing, as if they were the founders of Citadel, Robinhood or Facebook.

The world came one step closer to that reality Thursday when the FT reported that Sherrod Brown, a progressive Democrat from Ohio and chairman of the Senate Banking Committee had written to four major banks, including Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and Nomura (based in Switzerland and Japan, respectively), seeking “answers” about how Archegos Capital managed to amass so much leverage without any of its prime brokers realizing the firm was repeatedly borrowing against the same collateral (for more on that, click here).

Brown is seeking information about Archegos, and family offices more broadly. So far, banks who lent to Archegos have reported $7.5 billion in losses and analysts at JPM fear those losses could climb to $10 billion.

“I am troubled, but not surprised, by the news reports that Archegos entered into risky derivatives transactions facilitated by major investment banks, resulting in panicked selling of stocks worth tens of billions of dollars and those banks collectively losing nearly $10 billion,” Brown said in his letter to Crystal Lalime, general counsel at Credit Suisse.

“The details and ultimate consequence of Archegos’s failure remain to be seen, but the massive transactions, and losses, raise several questions regarding Credit Suisse’s relationship with Archegos and the treatment of so-called family offices, Hwang’s history, and the transactions that have been mentioned in news reports,” Brown added.

The letter follows Credit Suisse’s announcement on Tuesday that it would slash its dividend to help offset the impact of the $4.7 billion loss it booked from its Archegos trades (here’s how CS managed to lose that much).

Just as we anticipated, Bloomberg reported Thursday that Credit Suisse is tightening lending terms for hedge funds and family offices, in a potential harbinger of a new industry-wide practice, and a major U-turn from the steady loosening in lending standards as yield-starved banks grasped for profits in recent years. As we expected, CS is reportedly switching from “static margining” to “dynamic margining”, which could force clients to post more collateral and reduce the profitability of some trades.

Typically, clients lock in margin terms on swap agreements for a fixed period, say 60 or 180 days. But the Zurich-based bank – Switzerland’s second-largest bank after crosstown rival UBS – is asking some clients to move to the new terms immediately, according to Bloomberg’s sources.

News of CS’s move to “de-risk” brings to mind a warning from Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd, who said he fears another Archegos-style blowup is “highly likely,” Well, by upping margin requirements, CS will effectively force firms to deleverage by unwinding their gross and net exposure substantially. This likely means lots of ‘smart money’ selling is ahead. 

And the next blowup might be closer at hand than we expect, as JPM dumps a block of $ASO shares after hours on Thursday, prompting Bear Traps report author Larry McDonald to muse:

Every hedge fund compliance officer across the Street is now in search of the next Archegos, and they have as much trust in their prime broker as the lovely Marylin Monroe had in the playboy that was JFK. There are times to take on more risk and other inflection points which whisper into the wise man’s ear, “reach across the velvet and pull some chips off the table.” This is one of them, let the mad mob chase.

For much of the last six months we have been in the growth to value camp, pounding the table on the migration of capital running out of Big Tech over to equities in the commodity sector. As most of our long term clients know, we have never been more bullish. Our focus has been on rotation – NOT a drawdown leaking across asset classes. Today, we must make a stand. It’s time to take down risk positions across the board and let the fools chase.

For now, we will be waiting for the next shoe to drop on $ASO.

Circling back to Brown, let’s remember that he isn’t the only Senate Democrat sniffing around. Elizabeth Warren, who, like Brown, sits on the influential Senate Banking Committee, has raised concerns about the situation during an interview with CNBC, where she said the blowup had “all the makings of a dangerous situation – largely unregulated hedge fund, opaque derivatives, trading in private dark pools, high leverage, and a trader who wriggled out of the SEC’s enforcement.”

“Regulators need to rely on more than luck to fend off risks to the financial system: we need transparency and strong oversight to ensure that the next hedge fund blow-up doesn’t take the economy down with it,” she added.

Earlier this week, former FDIC chief Sheila Bair told CNBC that Archegos is a symptom of banks’ shoddy risk management, particularly in the competitive prime brokerage business. “There’s going to be a lot more questions about how they handled this situation,” Bair said. CS fired its chief risk office earlier this week, along with nearly half a dozen others.

These questions should chagrin senior Fed officials, especially Chairman Powell, who has repeatedly insisted that banks are much better capitalized now than they were in the run-up to the financial crisis, making a systemic blowup where over-leveraged hedge funds collapse like dominoes unlikely.

And Brown, for what it’s worth, will have an opportunity to interrogate Powell again in the not-too-distant future.

 
END
 
Biden Commerce Secretary admits that Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs saved American jobs.
(Pentchoukov/EpochTimes)

Biden Commerce Secretary Admits Trump’s Steel And Aluminum Tariffs Saved American Jobs

 
THURSDAY, APR 08, 2021 – 06:20 PM

Authored by Ivan Pentchoukov via The Epoch Times,

Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo told reporters at the White House on April 7 that the Trump administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminum saved American jobs.

“With respect to tariffs, there is a place for tariffs. The 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum have in fact helped save American jobs in the steel and aluminum industries,” Raimondo said, marking a rare point of agreement with the policies of the prior administration.

So what do we do with tariffs? We have to level the playing field. No one can out-compete the American worker if the playing field is level,” Raimondo continued.

“And the fact is, China’s actions are uncompetitive, coercive, underhanded. They’ve proven they’ll do whatever it takes. And so I plan to use all the tools in my toolbox as aggressively as possible to protect American workers and businesses from unfair Chinese practices.”

President Donald Trump in March 2018 imposed a 25 percent tariff on steel and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports. Some countries were temporarily exempted from the tariffs. Currently, South Korea, Argentina, Australia, and Brazil are permanently exempted. The tariffs on Canada and Mexico were lifted with the signing of the U.S. Mexico and Canada Agreement.

During the same month in 2018, Trump fired the first salvo in the trade war with China, imposing tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) responded with retaliatory tariffs and the tit for tat has escalated since. Trump had reasoned that the tariffs were necessary to force the CCP to abandon unfair trade practices and pay a price for years of rampant intellectual property theft from the United States.

Trump had also targeted private Chinese companies over concerns national security concerns, including the potential that troves of data on Americans were relayed to the communist regime in Beijing.

Raimondo made the remarks in response to a reporter who had also prompted her to clarify the Biden administration’s stance on TikTok, a social media app that Trump threatened to ban unless the Chinese company that owns it sells its American business to a U.S. company.

“So I would say, here’s my broad view, and I don’t want to get into details on any particular company,” Raimondo said. “My broad view is what we do on offense is more important than we do on defense. To compete in the long run with China, we need to rebuild America in all of the ways we’re talking about today, and by the way, do that with our allies. We have to work with our allies and find common ground where we can.”

END

FLORIDA

Should be fun;  Florida Governor DeSantis sues the CDC to force the reopening of the cruise industry

(zerohedge)

Florida Gov DeSantis Sues CDC To Force Reopening Of Cruise Industry

 
THURSDAY, APR 08, 2021 – 07:00 PM

A few weeks ago, cruise stocks slumped after the CDC extended a moratorium on cruises to November, even as packed flights with barely-compliant travelers wearing masks on their chins while eating and drinking have been the norm for months.

The industry is already facing the obstacle of re-selling the public on taking cruises after myriad outbreaks aboard cruises run by Royal Caribbean were blamed for facilitating the early spread of the virus. The incidents also drew attention to the fact that cruises are essentially floating petri dishes (although sales have rebounded more quickly than some might have anticipated).

In what he characterized as an effort to aid the thousands of Floridians employed by the cruise industry, Fla. Gov Ron DeSantis announced Thursday that the state will file a lawsuit against the CDC, demanding cruise ships be allowed to resume sailing immediately.

“On behalf of the tens of thousands of Floridians whose livelihoods depends on the viability of an open cruise industry, today Florida’s fighting back,” he announced in a press conference on Thursday. “We don’t believe the federal government has the right to mothball a major industry for over a year, based on very little evidence and very little data.”

He tweeted that federal law doesn’t give the CDC the power to shut down an industry indefinitely.

In comments to the press reported by CNBC, DeSantis called the CDC’s decision to delay the opening of the US cruise industry “irrational”, saying he believes that this lawsuit will have a “good chance for success.”

Royal Caribbean announced Thursday it would be extending the suspension of some of its trips that depart from US ports. Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises and Silversea Cruises trips will be suspended until June 30, while trips leaving from new home ports in other areas of the world are still operating on schedule.

Last week, The governor signed an executive order on Friday forbidding so-called vaccine passports, which will also apply to the cruise industry, saying that private and public businesses are not required to show proof of vaccination.

END

Biden To Boost Already Bloated Pentagon Budget With Proposed $715 Billion

 
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 09:55 AM

Despite progressive lawmakers in his own party long demanding a serious reduction in the Pentagon’s notoriously bloated budget, President Biden on Friday is expected to request a whopping $715 billion for the Pentagon for fiscal year 2022.

This is a slight increase from the prior year as Politico noted late Thursday in reporting the news: the Pentagon budget topline to be presented to lawmakers represents “a roughly 1.5% increase in defense spending from the current year’s [$704 billion] level, making it effectively an inflation-adjusted budget boost.”

However, it’s a slight decrease from what Trump had reportedly planned to propose for this next fiscal year, which was $722 billion. 

According to Bloomberg Government:

A $715 billion discretionary top-line would amount to a decrease of about 0.4% in real terms, adjusting for inflation from this year’s enacted appropriations of about $704 billion. That’s in contrast to a push for 3% to 5% real annual increases in national security spending endorsed by then-Defense Secretary James Mattis in 2017.

As for the aforementioned progressive pushback, they are pointing to the astounding waste that in the reality has little to do with defending the American people, but more to do with handing out huge contracts and fattening up the military-industrial complex.

A statement from the public interest advocate Public Citizen said it best in calling out Biden’s Pentagon budget as a “tribute to the power of the military-industrial complex.”

 

Via Bloomberg Government

“The Pentagon budget—which jumped more than $130 billion during the Trump presidency—is replete with spending on overpriced weapons that don’t work, rip-off deals for private contractors, gigantic investments in pointless or outdated weapons systems, and waste and mismanagement so severe the agency cannot pass an audit,” the group’s president Robert Weissman said in a Thursday statement.

“It is, indeed, a tribute to the power of the military-industrial complex,” he asserted.

“There are hundreds of billions of dollars to be saved by appropriate cuts to the Pentagon budget,” Weissman added. “What is most important for the FY22 budget is that it be smaller than FY21, in order to signal that we are finally moving in the right direction and shifting resources from the Pentagon to investments in people.”

END

NPR//GENERAL MOTORS

More plants at GM go dark as chip shortages increase

Domonoske/NPR

special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us

More Plants At GM Go Dark As Chip Shortage Continues To Bite

 

 

 

A sign is seen outside of a General Motors plant in Detroit, on Jan. 27, 2020. GM said on Thursday it is idling more plants as it continues to deal with a shortage of chips.

Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

General Motors will temporarily shut down two more plants as automakers continue to struggle with major supply chain disruptions, particularly in computer chips.

The company will idle its plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee, for one week and Lansing Delta Township, Michigan, for two weeks. They’re the lastest in the long list of North American auto plants going dark because of the ongoing chip shortage, causing temporary layoffs for workers and cutting into the supply of new vehicles.

Stellantis (formerly known as Fiat Chrysler) currently has four plants shut down for several weeks, while Ford has three plants down, with another working at partial capacity. GM has more than half a dozen plants on pause.

President Biden has called for a review of essential supply chains to try to address the vulnerabilities that led to this headache for the auto industry. The White House says it will be meeting with companies next week to “get some private sector input” on how to address the issue.

The semiconductor shortage, triggered by the unexpectedly rapid surge in demand for new cars, has lasted for months and is expected to stretch for months more. IHS Markit has estimated a million vehicles are being delayed by the shortage, and companies have predicted a financial impact that adds up to billions of dollars.

The supply chain woes have affected automakers differently.

Ford has had to curtail production of its freshly redesigned bestseller, the F-150 pickup, which is a painful blow to the company’s cash cow. Like several companies, it’s resorted to building trucks that are almost finished and parking them to wait until semiconductors become available.

General Motors, meanwhile, has chosen to prioritize its manufacturing of profitable full-size pickup trucks and SUVs, keeping those plants running at full capacity while shutting down other plants temporarily. Those closures have varied wildly, from a week or two to three months.

Toyota has fared significantly better than many rivals, at least on the semiconductor front, although “COVID and recent severe weather-related events” have cut into North American production this month. Employment was not affected, Toyota says.

Meanwhile, Honda had to shut down most of its North American production in March, due to multiple supply chain snarls. But plants have since reopened fully, a spokesman tells NPR. And Tesla shut down for just two days in February due to “parts shortages,” CEO Elon Musk tweeted at the time.

Ford is already looking ahead to how it can recover some of its lost production. On Thursday the company announced it would run seven plants through the summer, instead of shutting down for the normal summer break, as a way to make up for the forced shutdowns this spring.

The summer shutdown period is often used for plant maintenance, but a Ford spokeswoman says the change in schedule is not expected to interfere with plant upkeep.

END

MICHIGAN/LOCKDOWNS

Michigan closes for another 2 weeks as COVID transmission rates soar 

(zerohedge)

Gov. Whitmer Asks Michigan High Schools To Close For 2 Weeks As COVID Transmission Rate Soars

 
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 02:15 PM

Michigan has claimed the mantle of America’s COVID epicenter this week as it officially has the highest transmission rate in the US, driven in part by a slower-than-average vaccination campaign and the growing prevalence of mutant strains. And on Friday, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer asked the federal government to send more vaccines, and ordered high schools in the state to return to remote-only education for two weeks.

Youth sports will also be asked to take a break, and diners have been asked to avoid eating in restaurants.

All four of these requests are voluntary and don’t carry the weight of official mandates from her administration. Watch this morning’s press conference below.

Whitmer said a temporary pause would go “a long way” to stop the spread of the virus and save lives. “Right now our numbers are alarming, and we all have a role to play to get our state moving in the right direction again,” Whitmer said.

“That’s why I’m renewing my call on the federal government to surge additional vaccines to our state.”

The Associated Press reported that President Biden responded to Whitmer’s request by offering to send additional federal resources to support vaccinations and more COVID-19 testing, along with drugs used to treat the illness. But his administration will not be sending more vaccine doses beyond the state’s normal allocation.

Scientists have blamed younger people for spreading the virus as they start mingling in public in greater numbers: “We’ve seen that the younger population has played a significant role in transmission during this most recent spike,” said Michigan Chief Medical Executive Dr. Joneigh Khaldun.

“I urge youth sports organizers to pause in-person activities for the next couple weeks, and as always, mask up, wash your hands, social distance and get your safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine as soon as you are able.”

Whitmer said her family is ordering takeout and taking the proper precautions, but that stopping the virus must be “a team effort.”

While 5MM vaccine doses have been distributed across Michigan, reports earlier this week claimed that nearly 250 people who were “fully vaccinated” had come down with serious COVID infections, and that 3 of them died. Speculation immediately turned to mutant COVID strains, against which scientists fear vaccines might not be as effective, as some trial data has shown. Particularly, health officials claimed during the press briefing that the B.1.1.7 variant first identified in the UK is driving Michigan’s infection rate, as the state has been identified as the state where the strain is most prevalent.

It’s worth noting that while Michigan takes its first steps toward shutting schools and its economy in the face of yet another COVID wave, Texas has moved to reopen, and so far, the virus has remained in check. The development has baffled even Dr. Anthony Fauci.

END

iv) Swamp commentaries

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

As we noted in Thursday’s missive, ESMs surged during early Asian trading on buying for a desired breakout of the S&P 500 Index from its range over the previous two sessions.

German Factories Remain Resilient to Crisis as Orders Rise
Demand climbed 1.2% in February; matching survey estimate…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-08/german-factories-remain-resilient-to-crisis-as-orders-rise

744,000 Americans file for first-time jobless benefits; 680k was expected

@disclosetv: Russia vows to defend its citizens in Eastern Ukraine (TASS), while the US considers sending warships to the Black Sea amid rising tensions.  14:30 ET

Reuters: The United States is increasingly concerned about what it sees as escalating Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine, and is discussing Russian troop movements with its NATO allies…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-discussing-russian-troop-movement-near-ukraine-with-allies-white-house/ar-BB1frmti

@AFP: “Russia now has more troops on the border of Ukraine than at any time since 2014,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters.

The rally stalled on the Russia news.  Stocks inched higher just after the final hour appeared.  But they soon rolled over.  The decline persisted until someone juiced ESMs at the close.  PS – The dollar declined sharply; precious metals rallied sharply.
The leftists that are running Biden have told the media that they intent to out-FDR on implementing an even more grand leftist agenda.  LBJ did this same when he started his Great Society programs in 1964.

The following charts show that stocks initially loved the socialism and accompanying Fed largesse to grease the way for the massive government intrusion into the economy.  FDR’s initial New Deal programs, implemented after his 1933 inauguration, generated a four-month DJIA rally.  When the economy and stocks sagged in 1934, FDR implemented a second, more aggressively leftist agenda.

This produced a 2.25-year rally that was upended when inflation soared in 1937.  The economy retreated with the stock market and it took WWII to get the US out of its economic mess.

The DJIA topped in March 1966.  It couldn’t rally meaningfully above this level until the Reagan Boom commenced in 1983.  On an inflation-adjust basis, the DJIA didn’t exceed its 1966 peak until the ‘90s.  The US stock market went stagnate for 17 years due to inflation, and eventually stagflation, due to LBJ’s guns & butter (Vietnam War and Great Society programs) and Nixon’s extension of LBJ’s schemes.


Of course, the FDR rally was coming off the Depression low, DJIA 41.22.  The DJIA hit a bottom in June 1962 (536.77) and was regularly hitting new highs for three quarters when LBJ proposed his Great Society in the spring of 1964.  The DJIA was around 825 then.  So, LBJ is a better comparison.

New York Legislature passes $212 billion budget   https://trib.al/r5StPkl

@nytimes: New York will offer one-time payments of up to $15,600 to undocumented immigrants who lost work during the pandemic…    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/nyregion/covid-relief-undocumented-workers-nyc.html

“There Are Absolutely No Job Seekers”: How Trillions in Stimulus Sparked a Historic Job Market Crisis –  the latest BLS data shows that there are over 100 million Americans who are out of the labor force (of whom just 6.85MM want a job currently, and a record 94 million don’t want a job)…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/there-are-absolutely-no-job-seekers-how-trillions-stimulus-sparked-historic-job-market

Economist @dlacalle_IA: Inflation in the things we buy every day is much stronger than official CPI, which is lowered by adding weight to things we only purchase occasionally.
https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1380147163578167301

@dlacalle_IA: Inflation is also higher for the poorest, which shows how monetary policy hurts the weaker segments.   https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1380162514328055808

The Fed balance sheet grew $19.894B for the week ended Wednesday.  The Fed monetized $16.269B of US notes and bonds.  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

Kamala Harris has gone 15 days without a news conference since being tapped for border crisis role – Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, called Harris ‘missing in action’
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kamala-harris-no-press-conference-border-crisis

 

Harris, like Biden, is not the force that is forming and implementing policies in the administration.

AP: U.S. authorities picked up nearly 19,000 children traveling alone across Mexican border in March, largest monthly number ever recorded and major test for Biden

@Anna_Giaritelli:  More than 172,000 people attempted to come across the border from Mexico illegally in March – it’s the highest monthly total in 15 years – it’s 5x greater than the amount seen last March at the start of the coronavirus pandemic

Biden on the Second Amendment: ‘No amendment is absolute’ [Not a parody; this is real!!!] 
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-second-amendment-no-amendment-is-absolute

Remember how the MSM and Dems whined that Trump would destroy the Constitution?  ‘Accuse others of what you are doing or intend to do’!

GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: Joe Biden saying the Second Amendment is a “phony argument” – which about sums up his view of the Constitution in general.  https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1380209918423220227

@DailyCaller: BIDEN: “You go to a gun show, you can buy whatever you want–no background check.
[This is a dog-faced pony soldier lie!]   https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1380195314183897093

@DonaldJTrumpJr: Biden wants to disarm law-abiding American citizens with unconstitutional gun control measures, but his son Hunter is allowed to break the law and lie on federal background check forms to get a gun with no consequences???

@RudyGiuliani: Biden wants to take away YOUR RIGHT to defend yourself but he seems to not care if drug addicts fill out false federal applications for a .38 revolver or illegally possess and then dispose of them across the street from a school. So long as they are part of the #BidenCrimeFamily

The Daily Mail (US media won’t run this): What WASN’T in Hunter Biden’s book: How he got unauthorized Secret Service protection, begged Joe to run for WH to salvage his own reputation and made porn films with prostitutes. Forensic experts prove laptop IS President’s son’s
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9445105/What-Hunter-Biden-left-tell-memoir-revealed.html

Ted Cruz, Republican Senators Say Biden Funding to Palestinians Violates Anti-terror Law
In 2018, President Donald Trump signed the Taylor Force Act into law, which prevents the U.S. from providing economic support and other funding to the Palestinian Authority while it continues to pay the families of deceased terrorists, or to pay terrorists in Israeli prisons — a policy referred to by critics as “pay-for-slay.”…    https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2021/04/08/ted-cruz-republican-senators-oppose-biden-funding-to-palestinians-as-violation-of-anti-terror-law-taylor-force-act/

Pennsylvania Forced to Remove 21,000 Dead People Off Its Voter Rolls: Settlement
https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/pennsylvania-forced-to-remove-21000-dead-people-off-its-voter-rolls-settlement_3767667.html

Buttigieg says racism built into US infrastructure was a ‘conscious choice’
Transportation Secretary Buttigieg acknowledges ‘there is racism physically built into some of our highways’ as Biden touts $2.2 trillion proposal   https://thegrio.com/2021/04/06/pete-buttigieg-racism-us-infrastructure/

@disclosetv @CDCgov director Rochelle Walensky declared racism as a “serious threat to public health” and said it would take steps to address the matter.  [Racism 24/7 from this crew]

I prefer dangerous freedom over peaceful slavery.” – Thomas Jefferson, in letter to James Madison, January 30, 1787

I WILL SEE YOU MONDAY NIGHT

 

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