APRIL 12/GOLD DOWN $11.10 TO $1733.00//SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TO $24.85//GOLD TONNAGE AT COMEX RISES TO 83.4 TONNES//SILVER OZ STANDING REMAINS CONSTANT AT 14.80 MILLION OZ//MAY OI FOR SILVER REMAINS VERY HIGH AT 101,000 CONTRACTS//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES//VACCINE UPDATES//TAIWAN VS CHINA//IRAN VS ISRAEL//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE//CHINA CRACKS DOWN ON JACK MA//ST VINCENT VOLCANO UPDATES//USA BUDGET DEFICIT SWELLS BY $660 BILLION IN MARCH// SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1733.00   DOWN $11.10   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$24.85 DOWN  $0.39   London spot price ( cash market)

your data.

 
 
 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1732.60 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $24.80//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY KITCOL

 

 

PLATINIUM  $1168.00 DOWN $27.00

PALLADIUM: 2588.00 UP $38  PER OZ

 

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagle33

Even the TV pundits are now asking, without bothering to investigate, “what’s wrong with gold?” Yes indeed, what’s wrong with gold, other than a relentless daily cartel assault on PAPER gold. The physical coin premiums are widening out to spot. Gold Eagles are showing $200+ to spot, Silver Eagles $10+ to spot, if you can even find them. Supply and demand- fuggettaboutit. The more dollars printed the more valuable they become, and the more scarce gold and silver are the lower their prices go, so sayeth the Working Group.

Jim McShirley

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DATA

 
 
 

COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today  0/0

 

ISSUED: 0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped:  0

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL. CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ  (0.000 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  21,991 NOTICES FOR 2,199,100 OZ  (68.402 tonnes) 

SILVER//APRIL CONTRACT

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2560 for 12,800,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $60,226   UP 1913

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:  $59,913 UP 1606 DOLLARS  

 

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GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?STRANGE!

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:  A PAPER  WITHDRAWAL OF 0.0 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM GLD.

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE B OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD: 1,026.07 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER D0WN 39 CENTS

A NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

 

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHDRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULTS. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

574.868  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 162.28 DOWN $0.99 OR  0.61%

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SLV closing price NYSE 23.05 DOWN $0.27 OR 1.54%

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Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 645 CONTRACTS FROM 160,092 DOWN TO 159,477, AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.27 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON FRIDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOSS IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO A HUGE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A SMALL EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO  HAD TINY LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE LOST A SMALL 285 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 360,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:  MARCH  0 MAY:  360 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 360 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM! SILVER IS IN BACKWARDATION AND AS SUCH THE DANGER TO OUR BANKERS IS LONDONERS WILL PURCHASE CHEAPER FUTURES METAL OVER HERE AND THEN TAKE DELIVERY.

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 33 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***(5THHIGHEST RECORDED STANDING FOR SILVER)

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT (3RD HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC. (4TH HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

2021

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.800 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL

 

FRIDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT FELL BY $0.27). OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE A TINY AMOUNT OF SILVER LONGS AS  WE HAD A SMALL NET LOSS OF 285 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, THE LOSS WAS DUE TO i)HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  ii) SMALL REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A ZERO INCREASE IN SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER  REMAINING AT 14.800 MILLION OZ, iv) SMALL COMEX OI LOSS AND iv) MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

 

APRIL

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAR:

3752 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 3752 CONTRACTS) OR 18.760 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 469 CONTRACTS OR 2.345 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR: 18.760 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  18.760 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: : 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

APRIL: 18.760 MILLION OZ  (SILVER IS NOW IN SEVERE BACKWARDATION AND THUS DRAMATICALLY FEWER ISSUANCE OF EFP’S)

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 645, WITH OUR  $0.27 FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///FRIDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 360 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 285 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  $0.27 LOSS IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY WAS THE HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING AND OUR MONTH OF MAY’S OPEN INTEREST REFUSING TO BUCKLE MUCH TO FUTURE MONTHS. THE BANKERS SEE THE TEA LEAVES FORMING AND THEY ARE GETTING OUT OF DODGE IN A BIG WAY…TOO MANY LONGS (AND OUR WHALE) STANDING FOR DELIVERY…

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  360 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A SMALL SIZED DECREASE OF 645 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.27 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $25.24//FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW APRIL.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE SILVER IN BACKWARDATION (INDICATING SCARCITY), WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 8824 CONTRACTS TO 457,030,AND FURTHER FORM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE  OF $13.50///COMEX GOLD TRADING//FRIDAY. AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 4005 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG ADVANCE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING RISING TO 83.884 TONNES, A GAIN OF 0.5692 TONNES

 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $13.50 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A FAIR LOSS  OF 4005 OI CONTRACTS (12.457 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 4819 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT . FEB:0,  APRIL:  0 AND JUNE:  4819  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 4819.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 457,030. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4005 CONTRACTS: 8824 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4819 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 4005 CONTRACTS OR 12.457 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4819) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (8824 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4005 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOLLOWED BY A MONSTROUS QUEUE JUMP TODAY FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH ON DAY 8 OF THE DELIVERY CYCLE TO   83.884 TONNES)  3) MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) STRONG COMEX OI LOSS AND 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND ….ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING FRIDAY//$13.50!!.

 

 
 

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON MAR  1)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 
 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

APRIL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 20,062, CONTRACTS OR 2,006,200 oz OR 62.40 TONNES (8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2507 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 62.40 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 62.40/3550 x 100% TONNES =1.757% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      62.40 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 645 CONTRACTS FROM 160,092 DOWN TO 159,447 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING// SMALL REDDIT// RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A ZERO INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL TO 14.800 MILLION OZ//., AND 4) MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION.

EFP ISSUANCE 360 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  0 ; MAY: 360 AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 360 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 645 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 360 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 285 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.4125 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.27 LOSS IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

 

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.77 PTS OR 1.09%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 245.52 PTS OR 0.86%     /The Nikkei closed DOWN 229.33 POINTS OR 0.77%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.37%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.5444 /Oil UP TO 60.09 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.69 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5444. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5469   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 
 
 
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 8824 CONTRACTS TO 457,030 MOVING FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $13.50 IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING…WE ALSO HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE (4819 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID OFF NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY.  

WE HAVE ALSO  LATELY WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4819 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;  AND APRIL:  0, JUNE:  4819 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4819  CONTRACTS.(DESPITE THE STRONG BACKWARDATION IN GOLD FOR TWO MONTHS VS SPOT)

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED 4005  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4819 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 8824 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL  (83.884 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWS MARCH:  (30.205 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $13.50)., AND WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL  NET LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1866 CONTRACTS.  THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 12.457 TONNES TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (83.884 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 4005 CONTRACTS OR  400,500 OZ OR  12.457  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  457,030 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 45.71 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1421 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1421/2200 OR 64.62% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:60,269 contracts// volume extremely poor/DREADFUL   //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  180,647 contracts//  volume:   extremely poor/ hopeless!/ //most of our traders have left for London

 

APRIL 12 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR APRIL COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
a whopper!
 
542,998.817 OZ includes
JPMORGAN
 
  6,992 kilobars
also:
 
 
Brinks
HSBC
HSBC enhanced
Manfra
 
total 16.889 tonnes
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz

nil

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
nil OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
0  notice(s)
0 OZ
(0. TONNES
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
4978 contracts
(479,500oz)
 
14.91 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
21,991 notices
2,199,100 OZ
68.402 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 
 
 
 
 
total deposit:  nil   oz
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account
 
 
 
TOTA CUSTOMER DEPOSITS: nil  oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 5 withdrawals
 
 
i) Out of JPMorgan:  224,799.792 oz  (6992 kilobars
ii) Out of Brinks  243,340.562.oz
iii) Out of HSBC:  61,035.928 oz
iv)  Out of HSBC enhanced:  1998.250 oz
v) Out of Manfra: 11,824.285
 
 
 
a whopping: 16,889 tones
 
total withdrawals:  542,998.817 oz (16.889 tonnes)
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 2  kilobar transactions (2 out of 6 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  1:   dealer to customer 

i) JPMorgan:  578.718 oz (18 kilobaers)

 

 
 
 

The front month of APRIL registered a total of 4978 CONTRACTS for a GAIN of 122 contracts.  We had  61 notices filed on FRIDAY, so WE GAINED A STRONG 183  contracts or an additional 18,300 oz (0.569 tonnes)  will stand for gold in this very active delivery month of April./ This is a huge queue jump as bankers are now desperately trying to jump ahead of those standing trying to obtain scarce gold so as to put out  fires occurring elsewhere.

 

 
 
 
 

MAY lost 15 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1568.

The month of May is refusing to contract at all but these we will have a strong 5.0 tonnes

 

JUNE LOST 9125 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 375,423

We had 0 notice(s) filed today for  0 oz

FOR THE APRIL 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  61  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,991) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (APRIL:  4978 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,696,900 OZ OR 83.884 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices filed so far 21,991 x 100 oz  + (4978 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0} x 100 oz which equals 2,696,900 oz standing OR 83.884 TONNES in this  active delivery month of APRIL. This is a HUGE/ATMOSPHERIC amount standing for GOLD IN APRIL, A GENERALLY STRONG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. 

 

WE GAINED A HUGE 183 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 18,300 OZ WILL  STAND FOR GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

351,292.365 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.92 TONNES

312,798.505, oz  JPM  10.162 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

67,422.339, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.097 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,286,115.402 oz                                     71.10 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 489.52 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 83.884 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  18,021,187.222 oz or 560.53 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,286,115.402 oz or 71.10 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,735,072.0 (489,52 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,735,072.0 (489.52 tonnes)
 
total eligible gold: 17,997,465.382 oz   (559.79 tonnes)
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 36,018,652,604 oz or 1,120.33 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  993.99 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
APRIL 12/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/APRIL

APRIL. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
362,537.910 oz
 
 
CNT
Brinks
 
INT DELAWARE
HSBC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
 
oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
3036.35 oz
CNT
 
 
 
 
 
 
whatever enters the comex faults
leaves
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
 
CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
400 contracts
 2,000,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  2560 contracts

 

12,800,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer) 
 
 
 

total dealer deposits: nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposit into the customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

 
 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 187.285 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.84% of all official comex silver. (187.285 million/367.633 million

total customer deposits today: 0   oz

we had 4 withdrawals:

 
 
i) out of CNT: 5006.300 oz
ii) Out of Brinks:  253,301.640 oz
 
iii)Out of Int. Delaware:  103,314.87 oz
iv) Out of HSBC:  915.100 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals 362,537.910   oz

We had 1 adjustments:   dealer to customer

I) CNT:  607,050.286 oz
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 121.318-million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  37/2748 million oz

a net 0.359 million oz leaves the comex silver vaults.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The month of April saw 400 contracts standing for delivery for a LOSS of 121 contracts.  We had 121 contracts served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 0 contract or NIL oz will stand for delivery over here instead of morphing into London based forwards.
 
 
 

May  LOST A  NORMAL 7991 contracts to stand at  101,180 contracts. May is the next active month and it seems the cavalry are showing up for physical silver as well. Thus we have April, a non active month having an initial 14.8 million oz stand and May with open interest refusing to buckle. 

 

To give you an idea of the strength of the May contract, let us compare the open interest remaining today vs last year. At this same time,(MONDAY APRIL 13/2020) we had 57,739 oi contracts still outstanding on the May 2020 CONTRACT.  This year:  101,180  still outstanding!!.

LAST YEAR 6122 CONTRACTS ROLLED ON APRIL 13 ; TODAY 7991!

WE HAVE 14 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE!(LAST YR 13 READING DAYS)

LAST YEAR WE HAD FINAL MAY SILVER OZ STANDING:  45.220 MILLION OZ/(5TH HIGHEST STANDING FOR SILVER EVER RECORDED)

{FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE COMPARING THE HUGE DELIVERY OF MARCH 2021 (58.4 MILLION OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY) TO MAY:

FEB 12/2021// 90,283 OI OUTSTANDING VS APRIL 12  101,255 O/S..  THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MONTHS IS THAT WE HAVE OUR WHALES WHO WILL REMOVE SILVER METAL FROM THE COMEX (IF THERE?)//NOT DONE IN MARCH 21}

June gained 160 contracts up to 890.

July gained 6888 contracts up to 39,985 contracts

 

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE OUR WHALE STANDING FOR SILVER METAL.  ERIC SPROTT’S FUND HAS NOTIFIED THE SEC THAT THEY ARE DOING A SHELF OFFERING OF $2 BILLION FOR SPROTT SILVER PHYSICAL FUNDS  (PSLV). IS ERIC TAKING ON THE CROOKS BY STANDING FOR METAL IN  MAY? THE MAY OI NUMBERS HAVE REMAINED EXTREMELY HIGH NOW FOR THE PAST 15 DAYS AS THEY REFUSE TO BUDGE. I NOW THINK THAT WE MAY HAVE TWO WHALES STANDING.  MAYBE MAINLAND CHINA?

 

The total number of notices filed today for APRIL 2021. contract month represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  2560 x 5,000 oz = 12,800,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (400) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the April standings for silver for the APRIL/2021 contract month: 2560 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (400)  – number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 14,800,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE APRIL MONTH. 

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 24,121 CONTRACTS // volume: extremely poor/ DREADFUL// volumes falling off a cliff// very 

 

FOR YESTERDAY 81,088  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ good

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO -0.89% (APRIL; 12/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO –1.90% to NAV:   (APRIL 12/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/0.89%(APRIL12/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/)

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 18.71 TRADING 17.58//NEGATIVE 4.45

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.07 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.67 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.02 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP $16.90 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF .36 TONNES FROM THE GLD//NVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.69 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.05 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES.

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD UP $13.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD… A DEPOSIT OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.62 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH//25: WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES//GOLD REST AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $7.75 TODAY://A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.42 TONNES OF GOLD: THIS GOLD IS BEING RETURNED TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND ON A PHONY LEASE SCAM//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.36 TONNES.

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 , NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.07 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A REMOVAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.27 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.23 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.98 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $37.40 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.44 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD  DOWN $21.00  TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.26 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1078.30 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.38 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.70 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A PAPER DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.12 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD UP $9.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WHOPPING WITHDRAWAL OF 9.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.50 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65 DOLLARS; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.7 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.54 TONNES.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

APRIL 12 / GLD INVENTORY 1026.07 tonnes

LAST;  1036 TRADING DAYS:   +92.21 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 936 TRADING DAYS// +  276.73TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 7 /WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ. 

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 256,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ

APRIL 1.WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.898 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 417,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY REST AT 579.022 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.042 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER AT 5.20 PM:  1.949 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.253 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 582.596 MILLION OZ

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ./

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY,TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.486 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLVAT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 2.599 MILLION OZ WITHRAWWAL AT 5:20 ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/ (TOTAL SILVER LEAVING 4.085 MILLION OZ)

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; AT 3 PM: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.507 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366  MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.501 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 3.90 MILION OZ AT 5.20..: TOTAL LOSSS 10.4 MILLLLION OZ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 596.616 MILLION OZ

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 76 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.486 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.017 MILLION OZ

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 58 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.774 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 605.531 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2//WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1.WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.593 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 609.305 MILLION OZ.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

APRIL 12/2021
574.868 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)LAWRIE WILLIAMS:

OR

EGON VON GREYERZ// 

ARCHEGOS & CREDIT SUISSE – TIP OF THE ICEBERG

By Egon von Greyerz

Bill Hwang, the founder of the hedge fund Archegos that just lost $30 billion, probably didn’t realise when he named his company that it was predestined for big things.

Archegos is a Greek word which means leader or one who leads so that others may follow.

ARCHEGOS THE FIRST OF MANY TO COME

This, until a few days ago, unknown hedge fund is a trailblazer for what will happen to the $1.5+ quadrillion derivatives market. I have warned about the derivatives bubble for years. Archegos has just lit the fuse and soon this whole market will explode.

I know that technically Archegos was a Family Office for favourable regulatory reasons. But for all intents and purposes I consider it a hedge fund.

Warren Buffett called derivatives financial weapons of mass destruction and he is absolutely right.

Greedy bankers have now built derivatives to a self-destructive nuclear weapon. Archegos shows the world that an unknown smaller hedge fund can get credit lines of $30 billion or more that quickly leads to contagion and uncontrollable losses.

And when the hedge fund’s bets go wrong, not only do the investors lose all their money, also the banks which have recklessly financed Archegos’ massively leveraged speculation will lose around $10 billion of their shareholders’ funds.

It obviously will not affect the bankers’ bonuses which will only be reduced when the bank  has gone bust. Remember the Lehman crisis in 2008. Without a massive rescue package by central banks, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan etc would have gone under. And still the bonuses that year in these banks were the same as the previous year.

Absolutely scandalous and the very worst side of capitalism. But as Gordon Gekko said in the film Wall Street – Greed is Good! Well when it all finishes, it might not be as good as they think.

DERIVATIVES – A MONEY SPINNER THAT WILL SPIN OUT OF CONTROL

Derivatives have been a money spinner for the major investment banks for decades. Today virtually all trading is in the form of derivatives. Very few portfolios are in the underlying instruments. Instead, anything from stock portfolios, ETFs, gold funds etc use derivatives or synthetic instruments. In addition the interest and forex markets are all derivatives. Archegos’ portfolio for example was in Total Return Swaps.

As we just saw, when derivatives implode, and the underlying securities are dumped by the prime broker at any price, the losses are instantaneous and irreparable.

Still, contagion was avoided this time with the banks taking all the losses. But that will not be the case next time when not just $30 billion of derivatives implode but multiples of that sum.

WHEN COUNTERPARTIES FAIL……… THE $1.5 QUADRILLION TIMEBOMB

Defenders of derivatives which obviously includes all the investment banks and the BIS (Bank of International Settlement) in Basel, will argue that the net derivatives position is just a fraction of the gross which is estimated to be at least $1.5 quadrillion.

Yes, of course the net position theoretically is much smaller after netting. But when counterparties fail, gross remains gross. And this is what we are likely to see within the next few years.

Archegos is a very good example of what the world will experience on a much bigger scale – $1.5 quadrillion will not disappear quietly. The banks managed to stop contagion this time but they won’t once it starts in earnest.

The cube below represents all the known derivatives in the world of $1.5 quadrillion. The real number is probably considerably higher.

The $1.5Q is 850X declared central bank gold. What will the gold price be after the derivatives implode? Probably too high to fathom!

When the biggest financial bubble in history unravels the massively over-leveraged financial system, led by the implosions of the $1.5 quadrillion derivatives monster, will be paralysed as stock, bond and property values just evaporate in a cloud of smoke.

WHEN ASSET VALUES DIE

The world will then realise that all the printed money and all credit which backed these assets had ZERO value which some of us have been clear about for years.

Despite the pipe dreams of the Keynesians and the MMT rubbish theories, money created out of thin air must always have ZERO value.

And when the world discovers that the debt has ZERO value, they will wake up from their sweet dreams and realise that the artificial wealth they have built up was all based on a lie.

Starting with the closing of the gold window in 1971, the world has built up an edifice of grossly overvalued assets that will soon find their intrinsic value of nearer ZERO.

Many will argue that many of these assets will still have a value whether it is a sound business or a high quality commercial building with good tenants.

That argument is valid as long as the business has no debt and/or can service its debts from revenue.

Same with leveraged commercial property. Bricks and mortar have little value if it is not income producing. When tenants can’t pay the rent, the bank will call in the loans and foreclose on the building.

In a world with $300 trillion of debt, most assets are heavily leveraged. Debtors with no profits or income will quickly become insolvent and the bank will become holders of major assets that collapse in value. The banks cannot afford to hold on to these assets and will sell them in ongoing fire sales.

Very few people will have liquid and marketable assets at that point. And the debt financing will become non-existent.

HOLDERS OF REAL MONEY OR GOLD & SILVER WILL FIND BARGAINS

As in every period of crisis in history holders of liquid real assets like gold and silver will be able to pick assets for 5 cents on the dollar. This sounds impossible today but people familiar with for example the Weimar Republic will know that this actually happened then and also in other times in periods of major crises.

That will be the time when a property that is today worth say $1.1 million or 20 kilos of gold can be acquired for $1 kilo which is a 95% discount, measured in gold.

This obviously sounds totally unrealistic today but history proves that it happens time and time again.

FIRST TIME IN HISTORY A DEBT COLLAPSE IS GLOBAL

This time the debt bubble is bigger than any time in history. But not only that, this is the first time ever that a debt collapse is global.

Every corner of the world is in the same situation – North America, South America, Europe, Africa, China, Japan and even Russia. Some countries like China might be able to deal with their debt internally but every single country in the world will suffer as the financial system implodes and world trade collapses.

THE DARK AGES

The biggest economic collapse in history so far is probably the fall of the Roman Empire which happened gradually but the final fall of Rome was in 476 AD when the Germanic leader Odoacer disposed of Romulus Augustulus. From then on no Roman emperor would ever rule from Rome.

The late 5th century is considered the start of the Dark Ages that lasted 900 years until the Renaissance or late 14th century. Other historians define it as a 500 year period. The Dark Ages was a period of cultural and economic decline. But there was clearly not a 900 year solid decline. Many areas prospered much earlier.

So whether we will get an extended period of decline after the current economic and financial bubbles, only future historians will know. What is certain though is that a debt and asset implosion of the magnitude that the world is now facing will have devastating effects for our children and grandchildren. But whether it will last 50 years or 500 years, only history will tell us.

CREDIT SUISSE AND THE WILD BUNCH OF PRIME BROKERS

Hedge fund leverage can only happen with the total cooperation and backing of major banks. Archegos had Prime Brokerage relationships with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Nomura and Credit Suisse.

These foolhardy banks extend trading lines of billions of dollars so that hedge funds can leverage themselves to a level which will not just jeopardise the hedge funds but also the banks themselves and eventually the financial system.

Swiss banks used to be a bastion of prudence and conservatism. But as I have written about before they are now at the very top of risk taking banks.

Switzerland has a major problem due to the size of its banking system which is 5X Swiss GDP. Thus in case of a major contagion the Swiss financial system is too big to save.

SWISS NATIONAL BANK – THE WORLD’S BIGGEST HEDGE FUND

The additional problem is of course the Swiss National Bank – SNB – which is the largest hedge fund in the world with assets of CHF 1 trillion (USD 1.1trillion) which is 145% of  Swiss GDP. For comparison, the Fed’s balance sheet is 27% of US GDP.

The majority of the balance sheet is in foreign exchange speculation and held in dollars and euros. The SNB also has major positions in US tech stocks – $8.5 billion in Apple,  $6.b in Microsoft, $5.2 in Amazon plus a lot more.

So not only is the Swiss banking system too big for the country but the Swiss national bank is extremely vulnerable to a decline in the dollar and euro plus US  tech stocks.

None of this could have happened in the late 1960s and 1970s when I was in Swiss banking. But when both the Swiss National Bank and the commercial banks leverage their positions to the hilt in derivatives and currency speculation, the whole Swiss financial system is at risk.

Nobody should hold major assets in a national banking system which is as exposed as the Swiss one.

CREDIT SUISSE – IS IT INCOMPETENCE OR JUST BAD LUCK

So let’s look how Credit Suisse (CS) which is Switzerland’s second biggest bank has fared lately.

CS has gone from bad to worse, both in risk management and losses. In Q4 2015 they lost CHF 6 billion in write offs and trading losses. In late 2016 CS agrees to pay $5.3b to resolve a probe by the US Department of Justice for mis-selling mortgages.

In 2020 CS faces another $680m in relation to US mortgage securities. In 2021 CS has so far taken a $450m write down on investment in the hedge fund York Capital. A massive $3 billion is expected to be lost on the collapsed Greensill Capital. That sum is equal to Credit Suisse’s net income in 2020.

And the next disaster for Credit Suisse is Archegos. The losses are likely to exceed $6 billion.

The amount of losses that CS has had is clearly not just bad luck. It is based on incompetence combined with a level of greed which rewards success for individuals whilst at the same time jeopardising the bank and the system.

Although Credit Suisse has already lost over $20 billion in recent years, there is probably a lot more hidden in this once venerable Swiss bank. Whatever the management declares has little validity since they don’t seem to have a clue of the real risk picture of the bank.

So is Credit Suisse a real disaster waiting to happen?  Time will tell.

What is fairly certain is that the Archegos & Credit Suisse disasters are just the tip of the iceberg.

CS is just one of the banks losing unacceptable amounts of money. Nomura, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and several more gamblers.

So Credit Suisse is clearly not the only bank taking these shameless bets. The whole banking world is in the same predicament. And due to the total interdependence of the financial system, even sound banks will not survive. 

BANKS FACE SHOCKWAVES OF LOSSES

All these casinos that are called banks are every day making bets that put the bank at risk. In an orderly and controlled market, they make enormous amounts of money for themselves. But when the tide turns and they no longer can manipulate the market to their advantage, there will be shockwaves of losses.

When stock and bond markets fall at the same time, the collateral of the banks will not even reach fire sale levels. And that will be the way that the derivatives market disappears for good or at least for many, many years.

Anyone who believes that their assets held within a bank will be safe should think again. I am not just talking about money but also all the securities held by the bank as custodian. Under pressure the bank will use these assets as collateral for their trading loans. This has happened many times before like in 2007-8.

When you put your assets in the financial system, it is like putting them in a timebomb which has already been lit. It is only a matter of time before it all explodes. And you will have a hard time finding anything of value among the rubble.

RISK NOW GREATER THAN ANY TIME IN HISTORY

As I have spelt out many times, I am not a pessimist, nor a prophet of doom and gloom. I just analyse risk and then look at the potential consequences if/when things go wrong. 

I consider risk greater now than in any time in history. And please don’t believe that more worthless debt in the form of MMT, QE etc will solve the problem. It will just make the explosion bigger.

In every crisis in history, physical gold and silver has been the best form of insurance. Don’t believe it will be different this time.

Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

OR

Peter Schiff..

 
 
end
PAM AND RUSS MARTENS
WALL STREET ON PARADE

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Goes on 60 Minutes to Present a False Narrative on Mega Banks He Supervises Loaning Out their Balance Sheets to Hedge Funds

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 12, 2021 ~

The CBS “investigative” program, 60 Minutes, gave Wall Street a pass again last night.

This time around 60 Minutes’ host Scott Pelley interviewed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed, and by extension, Powell, are in charge of supervising the holding companies of the mega banks on Wall Street, including those involved just two weeks ago in loaning out their balance sheets to the tune of tens of billions of dollars to a hedge fund run by a man previously charged with insider trading and stock price manipulations. The man is Sung Kook (Bill) Hwang and the hedge fund is Archegos Capital Management. (Fed-supervised mega banks loaning out their balance sheets to hedge funds for nefarious purposes was previously exposed in 2014 in an in-depth report and hearing by the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. The practice has clearly metastasized since that time.)

The 60 Minutes interview comes just two weeks after Archegos blew itself up, along with generating billions of dollars in losses at the mega banks that allowed it to take on obscene levels of leverage in a replay of the financial crisis of 2008 – something that the Fed has continuously assured Americans could not happen again under its oversight.

Rather than dig deep into the insidious rot of the Fed as a lapdog regulator, Pelley devoted just a brief and shallow part of the interview to the topic of what happened at Archegos. The exchange went as follows:

Pelley: “A private hedge fund called Archegos collapsed last month after borrowing billions from banks to make risky bets on stocks. Now the banks are out billions of dollars. How concerned are you that the financial system is blundering into the same kind of opaque, risky bets that led to the Great Recession in 2008?

Powell: “This is an event that we’re monitoring very carefully and working with regulators here and around the world to understand carefully. And I would say a couple things. First, this incident doesn’t really raise questions about the stability of the financial system or of those institutions, which are mostly foreign banks.

“What’s concerning about it though is — and surprisingly, frankly, is that a single customer, client, of one of these large firms could result in such substantial losses to these large firms in a business that is generally thought to present relatively well understood risks. So that is surprising and concerning. And, you know, we’re going to understand that and get to the bottom of it. What we try to do is make sure that the banks understand the risks that they’re running and have systems in place to manage them. This would appear to be a significant shortfall– a failure on that front. And so that’s something we’re looking at.”

Let’s first focus on the preposterous statement by Powell, which goes unchallenged by Pelley, that “… this incident doesn’t really raise questions about the stability of the financial system or of those institutions, which are mostly foreign banks.”

In reality, this incident goes to the very heart of the stability of the financial system in the U.S. It was the blowup of two of Bear Stearns’ overleveraged hedge funds that took down the whole firm in March of 2008 and signaled the bigger rot in the U.S. financial system that would implode much of Wall Street by September of that same year, taking the U.S. economy with it and requiring a $29 trillion bailout by the Fed to resuscitate the casino banks.

Secondly, the recent Archegos blowup is decidedly not about “mostly foreign banks.” That Powell would attempt to misinform the American people on this point strongly suggests this interview was a propaganda effort on the part of the Fed. Two of the banks intimately involved in the Archegos blowup are Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Both of these firms are U.S. firms and are supervised by the Fed; both of these firms are allowed to own federally-insured banks while also engaging in trillions of dollars of high-risk derivatives.

And, the hedge fund that was involved was created here in the United States and the leverage was provided here in the United States, in complete violation of the Fed’s own Regulation T, which limits initial margin loans to 50 percent of the value of the stock being purchased – not the six to one leverage (or more) that the banks provided to Archegos.

We know that there are plenty more highly-leveraged hedge funds out there being financed by U.S. banks because we are looking at SEC filings made by other U.S. hedge funds showing stock portfolios totaling hundreds of billions of dollars each. For example, Susquehanna International’s most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission shows that it had a stock portfolio with a market value of $612 billion as of December 31, 2020. Citadel Advisors’ latest filing for December 31, 2020 shows a stock portfolio valued at $384.6 billion. And that’s just two out of hundreds out there that are engaging in highly leveraged transactions with federally- insured banks on Wall Street.

A quick snapshot of just how seismic this problem is was revealed in the most recent quarterly report by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. It shows that just one federally-insured bank on Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase, had exposure to $2.65 trillion in notional equity (stock) derivatives as of December 31, 2020. (Notional means face amount.)

Later in the 60 Minutes interview, Powell provides more misleading information to Americans on the Fed’s most recent bailout of Wall Street. The exchange went as follows:

Pelley: “And you believe the system, because of the oversight of the Fed, has the wherewithal to stand a significant shock to the markets?”

Powell: “Well, I think we saw that actually. Yes, I do believe that. We never say that the mission is accomplished. But I would say that if you look at how the banking system and the financial system — most parts of the financial system made it through quite a stress test last year when we lost, you know, 25 percent of GDP and 30 million jobs in the space of a couple of months.

“Now, some parts of the financial system had to be bailed out again. These were really though non-bank places like money market funds and things like that, where we had to step in again and provide liquidity. But ultimately, the work that we did in Dodd-Frank and in Basel to strengthen the banking system over the last decade, I think it showed up pretty well in what was a pretty good stress test.”

In fact, the bailout of Wall Street banks began on September 17, 2019 – months before there was a reported case of COVID-19 anywhere in the world. By September 27, 2019, the Fed was offering $100 billion a day in emergency loans to Wall Street. By October 7, 2019, again months before any outbreak of COVID-19, the Fed had expanded its emergency overnight loans to announcing $310 billion in longer-term emergency loans as Wall Street announced over 68,000 in job cuts. By October 24, 2019 the Fed had upped its Wall Street bailout to $690 billion a week. And on and on it went prior to any COVID-19 pandemic, which didn’t come until 2020.

We anticipated that the Fed would be engaging in this type of coverup of the facts so we created an archive of the more than 100 articles we wrote documenting this pre- pandemic bailout by the Fed. You can read them in timeline order here, with documentation direct from the Fed itself.

Congress, which was asleep at the switch in the leadup to the epic financial collapse of 2008 and lulled into complacency by the lunatic musings of Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, can now listen to the false assurances of Fed Chair Jerome Powell – or it can perform its duty to the American people and rein in this out-of-control casino that has attached itself like a blood-sucking leech to federally-insured banks that are backstopped by the U.S. taxpayer.

This is also a good time to recall what Sandy Weill told John Reed was his motivation for wanting to combine his Wall Street trading houses with Reed’s national bank, Citibank in 1998. (It was this combination that forced Congress to repeal the 66-year old Glass-Steagall Act in 1999 that barred stock-speculating firms from merging with federally-insured banks.) Weill told Reed that his motivation for the deal was: “We could be so rich,” according to Reed in an interview with Bill Moyers. (See Wall Street’s Casino Banks, Taking Deposits from Savers, in 1929 and Today.)

-END-

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Papua New Guinea gets majority stake in Barrick-Zijin gold mine

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

From Reuters
Friday, April 8, 2021

MELBOURNE, Australia — Barrick Gold Corp. has reached a deal that gives the Papua New Guinea government a majority share in the Porgera gold mine as part of plans to restart operations, the company said today.

The deal will set a benchmark for further resources projects in the region, Prime Minister James Marape said in a statement, and help shape the terms of new developments by the likes of Australian gold miner Newcrest Mining.

Porgera has been shut for a year after a dispute over the terms of benefit-sharing between the operator, landowners and the government, but the new framework pact paves the way to resume operations, although it gave no timeframe.

“We intend to partner with all key stakeholders to make Porgera a world-class, long-life gold mine,” Barrick Chief Executive Mark Bristow said in a statement.

The deal places Porgera ownership in a new joint venture that is 51% owned by PNG stakeholders and the rest by Barrick Niugini Ltd., Barrick added. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-barrick-gold-porgera-mine/papua-new-g…

END

Trying again with a mainstream financial journalist who should know better

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

Friday, April 9, 2021

John Authers
Bloomberg News
New York, N.Y.

Dear Mr. Authers:

Your column today at Bloomberg News, “”Bitcoin is Displacing Gold as an Inflation Hedge” —

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-09/bitcoin-is-displac…

— asks if there are songs about bitcoin. A few years ago the comedian Remy produced this rap video about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG7zLhEWanc

Regarding alternatives to government currencies, have you ever considered the influence of the largely surreptitious intervention in the gold market by governments and central banks in the implementation of their longstanding policy to prevent gold from competing with government currencies? 

A recent summary of the history and documentation of this policy is here:

https://gata.org/node/20925

Gold market intervention seems to be a prohibited subject at Bloomberg News. But the gold price really cannot be accurately analyzed without accounting for it, and this intervention has a profound influence on all major markets.

With good wishes.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

END

London metal trader Andrew Maguire interviews GoldMoney’s Alasdair Macleod

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

10:50p ET Friday, April 9, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

London metals trader Andrew Maguire, in his weekly program with Shane Moran for Kinesis Money, praises GATA’s consultant on the Bank for International Settlements, Robert Lambourne, and explains why he sees the current futures trader positioning in gold as bullish.

Then Maguire interviews GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod.

Among other things, Macleod says rising interest rates are not necessarily bad for gold and did not hold gold back during its explosion in the late 1970s.

Markets, Macleod adds, are “totally broken” and traditional price relationships have been erased because the Federal Reserve is suppressing interest rates and pushing up financial asset prices.

Inflation is already far higher than the Fed’s 2% target, Macleod says, and Russia and China hold far more gold than they report officially. But Macleod says China doesn’t want to be the one to destroy the dollar and the world financial system, preferring “evolutionary” changes to it.

Macleod envisions central banks returning to some sort of gold convertibility for their currencies.

The broadcast is 68 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J99fm7ssGIc

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other physical stories:

Singapore dealer prepares vault for 15,000 tons of silver

Inside a six-story high warehouse near Singapore’s Changi airport, a vast hangar-like space is waiting to be filled with a precious metal that usually plays second fiddle to its more lustrous sibling.

The vault that’s being built by Silver Bullion Pte Ltd. will — when completed in the first half of next year be able to store 15,000 tons of silver. It’s holding only around 400 tons of the metal at the moment, but the vacant space is an indication that silver appears to be on the cusp of a promising few years…

end

Saturday: Bitcoin: $60,200…

“…It’s Not Money…” – Desperate ECB Downplays Cryptos As Market Cap Soars Above $2 Trillion

 
SATURDAY, APR 10, 2021 – 11:35 AM

How do you know that cryptocurrencies are disrupting the status quo and offering ‘we, the global people’ an alternative to establishment fiat control?

Simple – when the global central planning elites continue to jawbone how terrible, awful, dangerous (etc…) cryptocurrencies are and will be.

On the heels of US Fed’s Powell “it’s a speculative asset” comments, and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s lies about “illicit finance” and “extreme inefficiency”, and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s warnings about crypto enabling “reprehensible behavior”; Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB described Bitcoin as a speculative asset that doesn’t meet the definition of money.

As Decrypt reports, in an interview with Der Spiegel, which is also available at the ECB’s website, Schnabel said that “in our view, it is wrong to describe Bitcoin as a currency, because it does not fulfill the basic properties of money.”

She argued that Bitcoin is a “speculative asset without any recognizable fundamental value,” which is no stranger to wild price fluctuations.

When questioned whether the fact that a lot of people trust Bitcoin could harm fiat currencies like the Euro, Schnabel said she is more concerned that “trust in cryptocurrencies might rapidly evaporate.”

She argued that since Bitcoin “is a very fragile system,” this could result in disruption in financial markets.

And here is the kicker – put down sharp objects and remove any liquid from your mouth before reading on…

The euro is backed by the ECB, which is highly trusted. And it is legal tender,” she said.

Nobody can refuse to accept euro. Bitcoin is a different matter.

We thinks she doth protest too much… and so does the market that just surged above $2 trillion market cap…

Source

Putting cryptocurrencies above Microsoft ($1.93 trillion) and just below Apple ($2.23 trillion) and Bitcoin alone at $1.13 trillion (just below that of the entire silver market)…

Source

The gains overnight were dominated by Ethereum spiking to a new record high just shy of $2200 ($2197)…

Source: Bloomberg

And Bitcoin surged back above $61,000 (just shy of its record highs at $61,742)…

Source: Bloomberg

The relative outperformance of altcoins over bitcoin have reduced the leading crypto’s dominance to 56% – its smallest since June 2019…

Source

As John Rubino previously noted, the above comments from the establishment are not random.

It’s a coordinated laying of the groundwork for a move against cryptos by most major governments, which in turn is a prelude to the introduction of digital national currencies and eventually a digital global currency run by the IMF or some other monetary consortium.

Ask bitcoin fans about this risk and many will laugh at the idea of pathetic governments trying to stop the unstoppable. This sounds a bit overoptimistic to non-revolutionary ears, of course. And it probably is. But revolutions, especially in tech, frequently succeed. Electricity replaced whale oil, digital cameras replaced film, online retailers replace book stores and so on. The blockchain might do the same thing to banks, both central and commercial.

But governments aren’t camera makers or whalers. This revolution is happening on a much bigger stage, with far more dangerous players. So the outcome isn’t guaranteed, and anyone who says otherwise is just talking their financial or philosophical book.

Finally, for those worried about the building rhetoric from the ’empire’ against crypto, zycrypto reports that “Crypto Mom” SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has recently spoken out against the U.S government, as conversations centered around the possibility of the government implementing a ban heightens.

Speaking on the ‘MarketWatch Investing in Cryptocurrency event series‘,

“I think we were past that point very early on because you’d have to shut down the internet. I don’t see how you [the U.S government] could ban it. You could certainly make the effort and say it is not allowed here, but people would still be able to do [use] it. So I think that it would be a foolish thing for the government to try to do that.

But then again, it wouldn’t be the first foolish thing government’s ever done.

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP at 6.5444 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.5469   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 37.77 pts or 1.092%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 245.52 PTS OR 0.86% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 229.33 POINTS OR  0.77%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED /

USA dollar index  DOWN TO 92.06/Euro RISES TO 1.1911

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.11/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.68/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.09 and Brent: 63.69

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.31%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 0.72% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.37%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.04: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.86

3k Gold at $1743.00 silver at: 25.20   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 23/100 in roubles/dollar) 77.20

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.34 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9236 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1001 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.31%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.669% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.329%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  DOWN  TO 8.15..

Futures, Global Stocks Hover At All Time High As Q1 Earnings Begin

 
MONDAY, APR 12, 2021 – 07:50 AM

Global stock markets and US equity index futures dipped modestly with shares in Europe and Asia as traders weighed inflation risks, an uneven global recovery and the latest upbeat economic outlook from Washington. After sprinting to close at an all time high on optimism that vaccination programs and the easing of lockdowns to combat COVID-19 would bode well for an economic rebound, S&P 500 futures were cautious to start the new week as investors waited to see whether U.S. earnings would justify sky-high valuations, while a rally in bonds could be tested by what should be strong readings for U.S. inflation and another round of blockbuster retail sales this week.

MSCI’s All Country World Index was down 0.25% after the start of European trading, off Friday’s record high. The gauge’s price-to-earnings ratio is at its highest level since early 2010. At 07:30 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 43 points, or 0.13%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 5 points, or 0.13% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 38 points, or 0.27%.

Some notable premarket movers:

  • Tesla rose about 2% in premarket trading after Canaccord Genuity upgraded the electric-car maker’s shares to “buy” and said the company could become “the brand” in energy storage.
  • Uber’s delivery business set an all-time record, crossing a $52BN annualized Gross Bookings run-rate in March, growing more than 150% year-over-year.
  • Alibaba jumped 6.3% after the ecommerce company said it does not expect any material impact from the antitrust crackdown in China which cost it $2.8 billion, one which will push it to overhaul how it deals with merchants. Over a third of the stock is held by U.S. investors, and it makes up more than 8% of the MSCI EM index.
  • Shares of Nuance Communications Inc surged about 23% as a source said Microsoft Corp is in advanced talks to buy the artificial intelligence and speech technology company at about $16 billion.

In Sunday’s 60 Minutes episode, Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Sunday said the U.S. economy is at an “inflection point” with expectations that growth will pick up speed in the months ahead, but also risks if a hasty reopening leads to a continued increase in coronavirus cases.

This week Q1 earnings season begins with the big banks reporting, and S&P 500 earnings are expected to have jumped a massive 25% in the quarter from a year ago, the biggest quarterly gain since 2018, when tax cuts under former President Donald Trump drove a surge in profit growth. Results from big U.S. banks Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo will pour in on Wednesday, kicking off the first-quarter earnings season where investors will look for reasons to support a stock market at all-time highs.

And while some like JPM said the rally had still room to run, others like Morgan Stanley noted that despite the S&P 500 making new all-time highs, small cap stocks represented by the Russell 2000 small cap index have underperformed the S&P 500 by 8% since peaking on March 12.

“In my view, the breakdown of small caps and cyclicals is a potential early warning sign that the actual reopening of the economy will be more difficult than dreaming about it,” said Michael Wilson, the bank’s chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer. “Small caps and cyclicals have been stellar outperformers over the past year. In essence, they were discounting the recovery and reopening that we are about to experience. However, now we must actually do it and with that comes execution risk and potential surprises that aren’t priced.”

The VIX index ticked slightly higher to 17.48, having hit its lowest level since March 2020 on Friday. “Renewed bouts of elevated volatility are likely over the coming months, in our view,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Investors can take advantage of this backdrop, however. Low volatility at present reduces the cost of locking in downside protection.”

U.S. growth and tech stocks saw something of a revival last week as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields retreated to 1.65%, from a 14-month top of 1.776%. “Low inflation and dovish central banks should limit the rise in bond yields during the recovery,” said Andrew Pease, global head of investment strategy at Russell Investments.

In Europe, retailers and travel companies led declines on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. European shares eased off record highs as investors held off from making big bets before earnings season. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was down 0.2% with the Stoxx Europe 600 Basic Resources Index dropping as much as 1.4% after surging inflation in China and the U.S. triggered possible measures to cool prices and boosted the dollar. Britain’s domestically focused FTSE mid 250 index held 0.2% below a record high as shops, pubs, gyms and hairdressers re-opened after three months of lockdown. The UK’s more export-oriented FTSE 100 fell 0.3%, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both traded flat. Italy’s FTSE MIB gained nearly half a percent. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Suez shares rise as much as 8.5% after the company agreed to sell itself to Veolia, which jumped as much as 9.4%. Barclays said the deal was a significant positive for both companies.
  • DiaSorin shares jump as much as 11%, the biggest gain in the Stoxx 600, after the Italian company agreed to acquire Luminex Corp. for about $1.8b. Earlier, Berenberg said the agreement, while “no huge surprise,” is a “good deal.”
  • Teleperformance shares gain as much as 4.2%, extending a record high, after reporting 1Q growth that analysts said was stronger than expected. The beat was in part due to support services associated with governmental Covid vaccination programs, Citi wrote in a note.
  • HeidelbergCement shares jump as much as 1.7% after Barclays said it expected to see positive comments on pricing from cement companies in 1Q updates. The broker said HeidelbergCement was likely to see robust growth against easy comparables.
  • HelloFresh shares fall as much as 5.1% as the stock took a step back after rising to a seven-week high on Friday. Citi said trends for both HelloFresh’s U.S. and international businesses softened into the month-end of March.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell for a second day, with India and China leading a broad decline in regional equities. India’s key stock gauges slumped more than 3% as the nation battled with a record surge in coronavirus cases. China’s CSI 300 Index fell more than 1.5%, with materials stocks tumbling after the Chinese government vowed to tighten controls on commodities. While Alibaba rallied in Hong Kong as a record penalty on the group was seen lifting a regulatory overhang on its stock, shares of peers including Tencent and Meituan slid, weighing on the Hang Seng. Japanese stocks dropped as the slow pace of domestic vaccinations weighed on investor sentiment, while Australian stocks declined as the nation abandoned its vaccine timeline amid delays. Technology and consumer discretionary sectors were the biggest drags on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. The gauge ended flat last week, with intraday swings dropping to the lowest since the start of the year, as traders awaited more clarity on the region’s economic recovery and vaccine rollout.

Looking at just China, local stocks fell by the most in three weeks amid weak turnover on Monday, as the material sector tumbled after the government vowed to tighten controls on commodities. The CSI 300 Index dropped 1.7%, closing below the 5,000 key support level for the first time since March 25.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 0.9% as of 3:40 p.m. local time, as Alibaba’s gain failed to offset losses of its tech peers, which are expected to face scrutiny by Beijing following a record penalty for the e-commerce giant. Material stocks led the retreat in A shares as the government plans to step up controls on the raw material market to help limit costs for companies pressured by surging commodities prices. Wanhua Chemical, Zijin Mining and Ganfeng Lithium are among the top 10 drags on the CSI 300 gauge. Investors are awaiting clues on where China’s monetary policy is heading after soaring commodity costs sent China’s producer prices to jump by the most in more than two years last month. The government is scheduled to report its money supply and March new yuan loans by Thursday, which are important proxies for liquidity conditions in the country. “If inflation picks up too quickly, it’s possible that the central bank will do something to counter that, which could be bad for the market,” said Zhang Gang, a Central China Securities Co. strategist, by phone. Turnover of the CSI 300 Index was 8.4% lower than its 30-day average while trading volume in Hong Kong was 34% less than its average, according to Bloomberg-compiled data

In Japan, stocks also dropped as the slow pace of domestic vaccinations weighed on investor sentiment despite gains on Wall Street last week. Electronics and chemicals makers were the heaviest drags on the Topix, which fell for the past three weeks. Shin-Etsu Chemical and Fast Retailing weighed on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average. Yaskawa Electric slid the most in 13 months on weaker-than-expected earnings and analyst downgrades. “The delay in vaccinations is a drag on Japan’s business sentiment as well as the service sector,” said Norihiro Fujito, the chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo. “Because of this, local equities aren’t quite able to mirror moves in U.S. equities.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.3% to close at 6,974.00 after Australia abandoned its vaccine timeline amid delays. Prime Minister Scott Morrison said he won’t set a new target date for all Australians to receive their first Covid-19 vaccine dose, as health concerns about the AstraZeneca Plc shot and European export restrictions delay the rollout.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped after paring earlier gains; The euro hovered around $1.19 while European government bonds advanced, led by Italy. The pound led gains among Group-of-10 peers following its worst week versus both the dollar and euro this year as non-essential retailers as well as pubs and restaurants with outdoor space reopen across England after almost 100 days of lockdown; a survey showed U.K. business leaders were the most optimistic on record last quarter. The yen advanced as a decline in regional shares underpinned demand for haven assets.

In rates, Treasuries were little changed into early U.S. session with long-end outperforming. Treasury 10-year yield around 1.664% outperforms gilts by ~1bp while cheapening by ~1.5bp vs bunds, which were supported after ECB President Lagarde said it’s ready to extend and expand PEPP if necessary.  Treasuries traded heavy during Asia session with supply pressure weighing, while Aussie bonds underperformed ahead of 2032 syndicated bond issue set to price Tuesday. The U.S. auction cycle starts with $58b 3-year note sale at 11:30am ET, followed by $38b 10-year reopening at 1pm ET; it concludes with $24b 30-year reopening Tuesday.

A pullback in the benchmark 10-year bond yield from 14-month highs in April eased worries about higher borrowing costs, helping richly valued high-growth technology stocks gain ground and drive the S&P 500 and the Dow to record levels. U.S. consumer price data for March and $271 billion of U.S. Treasury auction this week could end a recent lull in the bond market, reigniting a rise in yields that worried investors in the first quarter.

In commodities, gold prices were idling at $1,737 an ounce, having failed to sustain a top of $1,758 last week.Oil prices edged higher in rangebound trade on Monday on optimism over a rebound in the U.S. economy as coronavirus vaccinations accelerate, though rising COVID-19 cases in other parts of the world kept a lid on prices. Brent rose 1% to $63.61 a barrel. U.S. crude rose 0.9% to $59.86.

Bitcoin briefly rose above $61,000 before fading gains.

Data out this week is expected to show U.S. inflation jumped in March. Retail sales are seen surging, perhaps even with a double-digit gain. The U.S. Treasury is also set to test demand with offers of $100 billion in debt this week: U.S. supply is front-loaded, kicking off with 3- and 10-year note sales Monday. There is a packed calendar of appearances by Fed officials.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,111.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 435.95
  • MXAP down 0.8% to 204.84
  • MXAPJ down 1.1% to 680.25
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 29,538.73
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,954.59
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.9% to 28,453.28
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.1% to 3,412.95
  • Sensex down 3.5% to 47,854.80
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,973.96
  • Kospi up 0.1% to 3,135.59
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $63.25/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,738.84
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.02% to 92.182
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to -0.319%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1897

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy is at an “inflection point” with stronger growth and hiring ahead thanks to rising vaccinations and powerful policy support, but Covid-19 remains a threat
  • Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc is poised to pick the winner in a two-man showdown over its candidate to succeed her as German chancellor. The Christian Democratic Union and its smaller Bavarian sister-party, the Christian Social Union, are holding separate leadership meetings Monday.
  • A lasting surge in prices would likely convince policy makers that it’s time to tap the brakes on expansionary measures adopted in the pandemic, like high public spending or low borrowing costs. That’s why Tuesday’s consumer-price data in the U.S. will be so closely watched — though it’ll take more than a single month’s numbers to change minds

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets began the week subdued and US equity futures marginally pulled back from record levels with participants tentative ahead of the start of US earnings season and this week’s key data releases including Chinese trade tomorrow, as well as GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales data on Friday. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was pressured with gold miners and real estate the underperformers of the broad subdued picture across Australia’s sectors amid vaccine-related pessimism after the government abandoned its vaccination target of inoculating the entire population by year-end with PM Morrison refraining from setting a new target. Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) swung between gains and losses with price action at the whim of a firmer currency and after restrictions were reimposed for Tokyo, Kyoto and Okinawa. KOSPI (+0.1%) was relatively flat with downside cushioned following a continued surge in exports during the first 10 days in April and with SK Innovation and LG Chem lifted after they agreed to settle a trade secret dispute whereby SK Innovation will pay USD 1.8bln to LG Chem’s unit which boosted SK Innovation shares by double digits as it paves the way for the Co. to complete building an EV lithium-ion battery plant in Georgia that will supply batteries to Ford and Volkswagen. Hang Seng (-0.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.1%) weakened ahead of key Chinese data releases and amid lingering tensions in the region as US Secretary of State Blinken noted the US is concerned about China’s aggressive actions against Taiwan and warned it could be a “serious mistake” for anyone to try to change the status quo by force. Focus was also on Alibaba shares after Chinese regulators imposed a USD 2.8bln fine for the Co. for abusing market dominance which weighed on other tech giants including Tencent and Meituan Dianping on concerns they could be next to face tighter scrutiny, although Alibaba shares actually rallied despite the record penalty as it was said to just account for 4% of the Co.’s domestic revenue in 2019 and with the Co. not expecting any material impact on its business from the change of exclusivity arrangements imposed by regulators. Indian markets suffered with the Nifty (-3.3%) heavily pressured from COVID-19 concerns amid another record daily increase in infections which pushed India back above Brazil to the 2nd spot of countries worst impacted by the pandemic. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat despite the lacklustre picture across stocks, with price action dejected after Friday’s retreat and amid the absence of the BoJ purchases in the market today, while operations from the RBA and RBNZ who were in the market for AUD 2bln and NZD 170mln of government bonds had little effect on their respective yields.

Top Asian News

  • Six New Unicorns in Four Days Marks Historic Boom for India Tech
  • Low Efficacy of China’s Vaccines Sparks a Stir on Social Media
  • Korean ‘Webtoons‘ Firm Eyes $18 Billion Value from IPO
  • Japan’s Slow Vaccine Rollout Pushes Back Recovery Time Frame

European equities (Euro Stoxx 50 Unch) have kicked the week off with little in the way of firm direction. Macro drivers remain very much the same in Europe as pessimism from current lockdowns is expected to subside at some stage to a more upbeat outlook as the European vaccination effort picks up steam. In the US, strong data continues to accompany a successful vaccine rollout, which could see the nation reach herd immunity by around May. All of which comes amidst a highly support monetary and fiscal backdrop, whilst market participants also hope that some of the more aggressive elements of the Democratic Party tax plans can be curbed. This week sees US earnings season kick-off in earnest with some of the large-cap banks due to report. Goldman Sachs highlights that consensus currently forecasts aggregate sales growth of 5% and EPS growth of 19%. From a sectoral standpoint, GS notes that “consumer Discretionary is anticipated to pace the market with 97% year/year EPS growth powered by an 11% rise in sales”. Back to Europe, sectors are currently broadly lower across the board with the exception of Autos & Parts, which have been supported by the likes of Continental (+1.7%), Daimler (+1.8%) and BMW (+1.3%). To the downside, some of the other more cyclically-exposed stocks lag, with losses seen in Basic Resources, Retail, Oil & Gas and Banks. In terms of stock specifics, Diasorin (+7.9%) sit at the top of the Stoxx 600 after agreeing to purchase Luminex (+10% pre-market) for USD 37/shr in a USD 1.8bln deal. Suez (+8%) and Veoilia (+9) shares have been supported by news that they have come to an agreement, allowing for the merger of the two companies. Finally, another deal to watch out for is the potential acquisition of Nuance Communications (+21% pre-market) by Microsoft (+0.3% pre-market) for circa USD 16bln, with sources suggesting that an announcement could be made this week.

Top European News

  • Ardian Raises $8.9 Billion for European Private Equity Buyouts
  • Euronav Drops Most in a Year as ING Downgrades on Spot Rates
  • Hammerson in Talks to Sell U.K. Retail Parks to Brookfield
  • Merkel Bloc Heads for Risky Decision on Chancellor Candidate

In FX, it was a somewhat choppy start to the week for the broader Dollar and Index, albeit in a relatively contained range with the upside conviction seen in early European trade abating – the intraday band currently stands at 92.331-091. The weekend saw remarks from Fed Chair Powell, who stuck to his guns with emphasis on the labour market, whilst noting the economy is recovering better than he had expected, but virus flare-ups remain a significant risk. On that note, it is worth keeping on the radar the White House semiconductor summit slated for today (time TBC), as around 20 heavy-cap companies convene to discuss the chip shortage and its knock-on effect on auto production and subsequently jobs. From a fiscal standpoint, reports suggest US President Biden aims to complete the infrastructure program by the summer and is open to cooperate on the structure of the spending plan – although the proposal drew for Republicans last week. Key risk events for the European session remain on the lighter side, although the state-side Note auctions (3s, 10s) may garner attention. Looking ahead, the week is abundant with risk events, including US inflation, Fed speaks, and the official start of US earnings season, which could induce some sentiment-driven Dollar flows.

  • GBP, EUR: Mixed fortunes for the core European currencies with Sterling outpacing the Single Currency amidst some technical influence alongside reports that the UK and EU are reportedly nearing an agreement regarding implementation of post-Brexit trading laws for Northern Ireland, whilst ECB speakers offered little in terms of the impetus for the EUR. The divergence also comes against the backdrop of the UK easing its COVID-related restrictions as the Eurozone observes more stringent rules. As such, EUR/GBP has been on a steady downward trajectory since the European open as the pair eyes its 50 DMA at 0.8635 vs 0.8695 at best. Cable as such has been bolstered from its 1.3667 base, back above its 100 DMA (1.3689) to a high just shy of 1.3750 ahead of the 8 April high (1.3782) and the 1.3800 psychological mark. EUR/USD meanwhile relinquished its 1.1900-status in early hours and dipped below its 200 DMA (1.1898) as it inched closer to 1.1850 and its 21 DMA (1.1846), before the waning Dollar took the pair back to 1.1900, whilst above-expected but outdated February retail sales data unsurprisingly failed to spur any action.
  • AUD, NZD, CAD: All now narrowly firmer against the Buck to varying degrees, with the Loonie the laggard amid early losses across the crude complex, with the Aussie and Kiwi initially succumbing to the modestly firmer Buck and softer risk tone alongside negative omens emanating from the downbeat Chinese performance. AUD/USD has picked up pace north of 0.7600, having had earlier dipped below the figure, whilst upside levels see the 100 and 21 DMA both converging at 0.7657. NZD/USD holds a 0.70+ status with the round the nearest point of support and the 21 DMA (0.7061) the closest point of resistance above 0.7050.
  • CHF, JPY: Elsewhere, the CHF and JPY are narrowly mixed with USD/JPY reacting to the soured risk tone as it dips below 109.50 (vs 109.76) to a current low around 109.30, whilst the Swissie remains flat in a tight range vs the USD and EUR whilst weekly sight deposits only portrayed incremental changes W/W.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures have been subject to yet another choppy European morning as the complex attempts to tackle the COVID-related demand headwinds alongside supply-side risks emanating from several geopolitical standoffs. Kicking off with the latter, the most notable development has been reports that Yemeni Houthis have bombarded areas in Saudi Arabia with drones and ballistic missiles, with 10 drones reportedly targeting Aramco facilities and some military sites – markets are still awaiting confirmation from the Saudi side. Elsewhere, Iran experienced an accident at its Natanz nuclear operation with Tehran pointing the finger at its adversary Israel – although uranium enrichment has not been impacted and more sophisticated centrifuges will soon be introduced. On this note, Iranian nuclear negotiation will once again commence this week as the US mulls removing some tariffs to salvage the deal. Meanwhile, heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia have seeped into the west after US sent two warships to express its presence in the Black Sea in a bid to deter Russia. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry also stated that Russia has boycotted attempts to commence dialogue over the increased military presence on the Ukraine border as over 40k troops have been amassed by Moscow is both Crimea and Ukraine’s eastern border. It’s also worth keeping China tensions on the radar as US Secretary of State Blinken said the US is concerned about China’s aggressive actions against Taiwan. On the demand side, COVID continues to be the overarching theme as India overtook Brazil as the worst-hit country by the pandemic, while over in Europe, Germany reportedly sees six to eight weeks of heightened infections and could see longer restrictions than initially expected. On the flip side, Britain has eased its respective COVID-related restrictions with most of the services sector seeing a controlled re-opening. WTI May resides around USD 59.85/bbl (vs low USD 58.73/bbl) while Brent Jun sees itself near USD 63.50/bbl (vs low USD 62.41/bbl). Elsewhere, spot gold and silver have been uneventful, contained within recent ranges and mirroring Dollar action as the metals await fresh catalysts. In terms of base metals, LME copper eases further from the USD 9,000/t mark as it mimics similar action seen in the Shanghai contract overnight as Chinese markets succumbed to softness. Chinese steel futures also saw losses on concerns over disruption as Premier Li pledged to tighten control of iron ore. That being said, participants expected the April-June period to see a notable increase in Chinese construction activity. Note, the China Iron & Steel Association will hold a meeting on April 13.

US Event Calendar

  • 2pm: March Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$658b, prior -$310.9b

Central Banks

  • 1pm: Fed’s Rosengren Discusses Economic Outlookd

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

Good morning and hope you all had a great weekend. At our end, its been a slightly more stressful than normal start as our remote access suffered from global issues this morning and none of us could log on. As a result, we haven’t included our usual tables so as to get this out as soon as we could, though we’re hoping they’ll be back tomorrow. I’m just hoping by the time you see this we haven’t become the Late Morning Reid…

IT issues aside, after another bumper week for risk assets that saw equity markets reach new highs, markets in Asia have lost ground this morning with the Nikkei (-0.52%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.81%) and the Hang Seng (-0.98%) all moving lower, as have S&P 500 futures (-0.27%). The moves follow an interview by Fed Chair Powell with CBS’ 60 Minutes that was released last night but conducted on Wednesday, in which he described the US economy as at an “inflection point”. Powell said that “We feel like we’re at a place where the economy’s about to start growing much more quickly and job creation coming in much more quickly”, in a tone that contrasted with his some of his more downbeat messaging where he’s emphasised how far the labour market still has to travel to get back to its pre-Covid state. He did still say that “there are something like 8.5, 9 million people, maybe even more than that depending on how you count it, who were working in February of last year before the pandemic and have lost their jobs”, but also said that “The good news is that we’re starting to make progress now.”

Another important story over the weekend came from Germany, where the Bavarian premier, Markus Soeder of the CSU, said publicly for the first time yesterday that he was willing to be the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate in September’s federal election, if the CDU were to support him. Normally the joint chancellor candidate would come from the larger CDU, whose leader Armin Laschet is also seeking the post. However, Soeder has strong approval ratings whereas the CDU/CSU bloc have seen a sharp polling decline over the last couple of months, with Bloomberg’s average last week putting them at 26.9%, which is down 6 percentage points from the last election back in 2017. In turn, this has raised the possibility that they might not be part of the federal government after September’s election, which would be the first time the party isn’t in government since Merkel became Chancellor back in 2005. Alternative coalition options have been in focus, though the Greens are the potential kingmakers in any scenario, since the party is now polling at 21.5% in the Bloomberg average (up from 8.9% in 2017). Speaking of Germany, our research colleagues in Frankfurt have published a note looking at what to do about sovereign risk on bank balance sheets. In their report, they say how the issue has still not been tackled, in contrast to other risk mitigation measures introduced by the Banking Union and that it remains the elephant in the room. You can see the full report here.

Turning to the week ahead now, the pandemic will remain in focus as the new case count is still moving higher at the global level. In the week ending last Friday April 9, the numbers recorded by John Hopkins University showed a 4.45m increase in cases globally, which compares with increases of 4.11m, 3.78m and 3.29m in the 3 weeks before that, so we’ve definitely seen an acceleration in the past month, although the rate of increase is still shy of the peaks in December and January. Some countries have been hit particularly badly by the latest wave, with India seeing another record 152,879 cases on Saturday. Japan is another that’s seen some sharp rises lately, and the governor of Osaka prefecture said over the weekend that he could request a state of emergency be declared if the latest measures weren’t enough to stem the virus.

Over in Europe, there’s been slightly more positive news in recent days, since the latest numbers from the biggest countries (Germany, France and Italy) indicate that cases have now begun to fall from their peak, albeit still at elevated levels. Furthermore, there are signs of the market narrative turning as the pace of vaccinations are continuing to pick up in the region, with the Euro strengthening +1.19% against the US dollar last week, in its best of 2021 so far, while 5y5y forward inflation swaps for the Euro Area closed at 1.57% on Friday, a level not seen since the very start of 2019. On top of that, the UK reported fewer than 2,000 cases yesterday for the first time since early September, which comes as today marks a notable easing of restrictions in England, with the reopening of non-essential retail and outdoor hospitality venues. Finally in other vaccine news, Pfizer and BioNTech said on Friday that they’d requested their Emergency Use Authorization for their vaccine in the US be extended to 12-15 year olds, following trial results that showed the vaccine was 100% effective among this group.

It’s a big week on the data side too, with a number of important releases out of the US set to offer more details on the strength of the recovery there. This comes against the backdrop of a very strong jobs report for March and an ISM services reading that was the highest since the series began back in 1997. This week’s highlight will be the CPI report on Tuesday, as market participants have focused on the potential for a sharp rise in the reading over the months ahead. Our US economists are expecting a +0.48% month-on-month increase in the headline CPI, along with some strong releases elsewhere as well, with a projected +8.9% increase in retail sales for March thanks to the latest round of stimulus checks and payback from bad weather in February. The other big data release this week will come from China, where they’re releasing their Q1 GDP number on Friday. Our economists are expecting a surge in growth to +21.3% year-on-year, up from +6.5% in Q4, as the comparison will now be against the quarter when the pandemic first impacted the Chinese economy.

On the central bank side, we’ll have to wait until next week before the latest round of policy decisions, with the ECB announcing a week on Thursday, before the Fed and the Bank of Japan follow the week after that. Nevertheless, this week is the last chance various Fed speakers will have to offer their thoughts before their blackout period begins on Saturday, and markets will be looking out for Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday, who’s giving an interview at the Economic Club of Washington, as well as from Vice Chair Clarida later that day, who’s giving a speech on the Fed’s new framework and outcome-based forward guidance. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are expecting them to reiterate their familiar inflation mantra, in that they’ll look through the upcoming sharp rise in the year-on-year growth rate of consumer price measures, along with the “transitory” spikes caused by temporary supply-demand imbalances as the economy reopens.

Elsewhere, the latest earnings season will kick into gear over the week ahead, with the highlights including a number of US financials. In their preview of the Q1 season (link here), our asset allocation team write that they see S&P 500 earnings coming in 7.5% above consensus, which although lower than the last 3 quarters, would still be well above the historical average (+4%). Looking at the biggest names releasing this week, they include JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Tesco on Wednesday. Then on Thursday we’ll hear from UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, PepsiCo, Citigroup, Charles Schwab, BlackRock and Delta Air Lines. And on Friday, releases will include Morgan Stanley and BNY Mellon.

Looking back at last week now, risk assets in Europe and the US finished at record highs as global bond yields took a breather from their steep climb in the first quarter. The MSCI World index rose every day, advancing +2.40% on its way to all-time highs, with its run of gains now extending to 8 successive sessions. The S&P 500 added +2.71% on the week, finishing at yet another record high following a +0.77% gain on Friday, and marking its largest weekly gain since the first week of February. The move was driven by a strong rebound in technology stocks as the NASDAQ rose +3.12% on the week, while the highly concentrated megacap NYFANG index rose +4.75% over the course of the week. The latter index has now risen for ten straight sessions through Friday’s close in a run that has seen it rise just over 10%. Market volatility has also calmed over recent weeks and this the VIX volatility index fell -0.64pts to 16.69, which is its lowest level since the pandemic started. European stocks similarly rose to their own record highs as the STOXX 600 gained +1.16% over the shortened week, with the FTSE 100 (+2.65%) outperforming other bourses against the backdrop of sterling’s biggest weekly decline so far this year (-0.90% vs USD).

Over in rates, US 10yr yields finished the week -6.3bps lower (+3.9bps Friday) at 1.659% – the second weekly drop in yields over the last three weeks. The global benchmark has traded between 1.60 and 1.75% over the last month, and last week’s move was driven by the drop in inflation expectations (-4.6bps), which was larger than the decline in real yields (-1.9bps). European rates were more mixed however, with 10yr bund yields gaining +2.5bps last week and UK gilts falling -2.1bps. There was also a notable widening of peripheral spreads in Southern Europe relative to bunds, with the spread of Italian BTPs (+7.1bps), Spanish bonds (+4.4bps), and Portuguese bonds (+4.4bps) all widening over the week.

end

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.77 PTS OR 1.09%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 245.52 PTS OR 0.86%     /The Nikkei closed DOWN 229.33 POINTS OR 0.77%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.37%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.5444 /Oil UP TO 60.09 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.69 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5444. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5469   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

END

3 C CHINA

CHINA/TAIWAN

White house eases ability of USA officials to meet with Taiwan counterparts much to the anger of China

(zerohedge)

White House Eases US Officials’ Ability To Freely Meet With Taiwan Counterparts

 
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 06:40 PM

On Friday the White House issued a statement on spiraling tensions with China over the Taiwan issue, saying that the US is “not looking for confrontation with China” but that it’s concerned over Beijing’s “potentially destabilizing” actions in the region.

The statement came after White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki was asked whether the administration believed that China is on the cusp of invading Taiwan. But in terms of avoiding “confrontation” – another announcement Friday all but ensures that confrontation is exactly what we’re headed toward: the Biden admin has just opened up the ability of American officials to freely meet with their Taiwan counterparts

Via AP

While for decades the US has maintained stringent rules and restrictions on its own diplomats and officials regarding such meetings in accord with keeping its ‘One China’ policy, these have now been largely lifted.

FT relates the following details in the wake of Friday’s published guidelines: “US officials will be able to meet more freely with their Taiwanese counterparts under new Biden administration guidelines, the latest move by the White House aimed at checking increased aggression by Beijing in the region.”

“The new rules, which are to be issued by the US state department on Friday, according to American officials, will ease decades-old restrictions that have hampered meetings between American and Taiwanese diplomats.”

However, there will still be “guardrails” in place – for example regarding meeting on particular holidays in Taiwan which would be considered especially brazen, which would surely earn Beijing’s rebuke of violating the One China stance. Regardless China has of late frequently leveled this charge, particularly with multiple and unprecedented US delegations that visited the island within the last 6 months of the Trump administration. And last month under Biden the US envoy to Palau become to first American ambassador to be received in Taiwan since 1979.

FT continues to review: “While Biden reviewed the guidelines in recent months, there were signs he would take a looser approach than during the Obama administration. Joseph Young, the acting US ambassador to Japan, recently welcomed his Taiwanese counterpart to his Tokyo residence and publicized the visit on Twitter, echoing a similar move by Trump’s ambassador to the Netherlands after Pompeo’s announcement.”

Beijing’s reaction and imminent protest of the relaxing of the guidelines will no doubt be fierce, and could involve a continued escalation of aerial and naval incursions of Taiwan-claimed territory, also as the US “answers” these threatening moves by sending its own warships into the South China Sea. 

end

Taiwan Records Largest Ever Incursion By Chinese Air Force With 25 Planes Monday

 
MONDAY, APR 12, 2021 – 12:07 PM

China has continued its muscle-flexing exercises near Taiwan on Monday, this time sending an unprecedentedly large group of aircraft to breach Taiwan’s defense zone. 

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry has announced that 25 Chinese Air Force planes entered its airspace, which included 18 fighter jets escorting four long-range bombers. It marks the largest ever Chinese aerial incursion since Taiwan began recording and publicly disclosing the data and follows last month’s 20-strong Chinese aircraft incursion. 

As is typical in such aggressive Chinese maneuvers near the island, Taiwan said it scrambled its own jets while also issuing radio warnings, and further its military said “air defense missile systems deployed to monitor the activity.”

It’s widely perceived that Beijing’s uptick in such flights, which have become ‘routine’ on a near daily basis, are meant to send a political message warning both secessionist forces in the democratic island as well as their superpower backer the United States.

Monday’s largest ever PLA breach of airspace further comes a day after Biden’s secretary of state Antony Blinken hit out at Beijing over the Taiwan issue, warning it would be a “serious mistake” for anyone to try and change the status quo in the western Pacific via military threats. Of course, that’s precisely the charge Beijing has lately leveled back, claiming it’s Washington which is the one reneging on the ‘One China’ policy.

“What we’ve seen, and what is of real concern to us, is increasingly aggressive actions by the government in Beijing directed at Taiwan, raising tensions in the Straits,” Blinken told NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday.

CHINA/JACK MA
Beijing crackdown continues on Jack Ma
(zerohedge)

Ant Group To Become Holding Company Amid Beijing’s Ongoing Jack Ma Crackdown

 
MONDAY, APR 12, 2021 – 08:21 AM

Just days after Jack Ma’s Alibaba was fined a record $2.8 billion as part of Beijing’s anti-trust crackdown of Jack Ma’s sprawling financial empire, on Monday Ant Group, the financial-technology giant controlled by billionaire Jack Ma whose IPO was ceremoniously yanked by Beijing last November, would apply to become a financial holding company overseen by China’s central bank, overhauling its business to adapt to a new era of tighter regulation for internet companies. The move would result in Ant Group being regulated more like a bank, directing an overhaul that was set in motion when the fintech giant’s record initial public offering was abruptly halted last year.

In a statement, the People’s Bank of China said Ant representatives were summoned to a meeting Monday with four regulatory agencies that also included the country’s banking, securities and foreign-exchange overseers, the WSJ reported. It said a “comprehensive, viable rectification plan” for Ant has been formulated under the regulators’ supervision over the past few months.

The central bank ordered Ant to rectify its business in five areas, including eliminating unfair competition in its payments business, managing liquidity risks in its major fund products, ending a monopoly on information and improving corporate governance, according to a government statement. It also told the firm to cut the outstanding value of its money-market fund Yu’ebao.

As Bloomberg adds, the “overhaul creates a definitive supervision framework for the biggest player in the country’s sprawling fintech sector.” The recast is a step toward meeting the demands of China’s watchdogs, who have pledged this year to curb the “reckless” push of technology firms into finance and are examining monopolies online.

The directive follows an intense regulatory assault on Jack Ma’s business empire that began with the suspension of the company’s blockbuster initial public offering in November. Ant had been on track to sell more than $34 billion worth of stock and list on stock exchanges in Hong Kong and Shanghai, when Beijing pulled the plug on the deal after Ma criticized financial regulators in a public speech.

Ma’s ambitions were quickly curtailed, and in January, the WSJ reported that Ant was planning to fall fully in line with China’s financial regulations by turning itself into a financial holding company, a relatively new designation for businesses that have substantial financial assets. But whereas in the US such a desgination makes one eligible for a bailout, in China it just means that your assets have now been de facto nationalized by Beijing.

Ant, which owns the ubiquitous mobile payment and lifestyle app Alipay – at least until Beijing rolls out the Digital Yuan which will replace all such apps – will have to correct what regulators called unfair competition in its payments business and improve its corporate governance. The Hangzhou-based company will have to reduce the liquidity risks of its investment products and shrink the assets under management of Yu’e Bao, its giant money-market mutual fund.

Most importantly, Ant will be required to break an “information monopoly” on the vast and detailed consumer data it has collected, the central bank said. China has been pursuing the “holy grail” of credit and financial details of China’s unbanked population, and to do so, it had to do stage a soft takeover of Ant. The events over the past 6 months have allowed it do just that.

Ant’s Alipay has more than a billion users in China. It handled the equivalent of more than $17 trillion of digital-payment transactions in the year to June 2020, originated unsecured short-term loans to roughly 500 million people and sells many insurance policies, mutual funds and other investment products.

In a statement, Ant said it “will spare no effort in implementing the rectification plan, ensuring that the operation and growth of our financial-related businesses are fully compliant.”

In addition to applying to become a financial holding company, the company said it would set up a licensed personal credit reporting company. It plans to fold Jiebei and Huabei, its two popular online personal lending services, into a regulated consumer finance company. Ant said its payment business will remain committed to serving consumers and small businesses.

“We will put our growth proactively within the national strategic context,” Ant said, adding it will “strive to create societal value.”

The Economic Daily, a state-run newspaper, said in a Monday commentary that Ant’s restructuring plan reflects the central government’s recent calls that platform economies should return to their roots and focus on serving the real economy and people.

“The underlying color of financial technology is still finance,” the newspaper said. Formulating a rectification plan is only the first step and going forward Ant should benchmark itself against the plan to fully meet the regulators’ demands, the newspaper said.

As reported previously, the regulators’ disclosure of Ant’s plan comes shortly after Ant’s sister company, Alibaba Group, was fined the equivalent of $2.8 billion by China’s antitrust regulator, which accused the e-commerce giant of abusing its dominant market position to the detriment of rivals, merchants and consumers. In addition to the record penalty, Alibaba agreed to undertake a comprehensive revamp of its operations and ensure its compliance with fair competition rules. While Alibaba shares rallied in Hong Kong on Monday as the record penalty on the group was seen lifting a regulatory overhang on its stock, shares of peers including Tencent and Meituan slid, weighing on the Hange Seng.

Ma, who is Ant’s controlling shareholder, co-founded Alibaba and still owns some stock in the company. Alibaba owns a third of Ant. Both companies—which have grown rapidly and are highly profitable—are trying hard to appease regulators and move forward for their employees and shareholders.

Last fall, Ant was on track to go public with a valuation of more than $300 billion, well above the market capitalizations of the world’s biggest banks. Less than three years earlier, in June 2018, investors had valued Ant at $150 billion following a large private capital raising.

More recent estimates of Ant’s valuation have varied widely. Many analysts and investors expect Ant’s profit potential to be reduced as it scales back some businesses including online consumer lending, which was previously its main growth driver. At the end of January, some American investment funds managed by Fidelity Investments had marked the value of their Ant shares at prices that implied a company valuation of about $230 billion, according to regulatory filings.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

Author Frederick Forsyth claims the UK government has launched a campaign of mass fear against the British public

Watson/Summit/news

Frederick Forsyth Says Government Has Launched “Campaign Of Mass Fear” Against British Public

 
SATURDAY, APR 10, 2021 – 09:20 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Iconic author Frederick Forsyth has accused the UK government of waging a “campaign of mass fear” against the British public by using psychological methods to ensure compliance with lockdown that resemble those used against East Berliners in the 1960’s.

Forsyth was responding to an article published in the Telegraph which exposed the “covert tactics” being used by the British government to frighten the public into complying with COVID regulations.

The article quoted a retired NHS consultant clinical psychologist who warned that there was “growing concern within my field about using fear and shame as a driver of behaviour change.”

Gary Sidley and 46 of his colleagues wrote to the British Psychological Society to express “concerns about the activities of Government-employed psychologists … in their mission to gain the public’s mass compliance with the ongoing coronavirus restrictions.

The letter states that the UK government is deploying “covert psychological strategies – that operate below the level of people’s awareness – to ‘nudge’ citizens to conform to a contentious and unprecedented public health policy.”

Commenting on the article, Frederick Forsyth, author of classic thrillers such as The Day of the Jackal and The Odessa File, wrote to the Telegraph to express his alarm about how the British public had been terrorized by lockdown propaganda.

“Congratulations to the Telegraph and Gordon Rayner for revealing that the campaign of mass fear that reduced a once brave nation to trembling terror was deliberately organised to secure obedience to the policy of lockdown,” wrote Forsyth.

“I have only once before seen anything like it. This was when I was posted to East Germany in 1962. Such a brainwashing tactic was employed to frighten East Berliners into believing that the Berlin Wall was a defensive measure to protect them from tiny West Berlin, and that the Stasi was their guardian. The wall was of course an instrument of enslavement.”

“I never thought that the government of a country whose uniform I once wore with such pride would sink so low. Those responsible should be identified without delay and ousted from all office over us.”

 

END

UK

Over 1 Million Brits Are Reportedly Suffering From “Long COVID”

 
SUNDAY, APR 11, 2021 – 07:35 AM

According to the latest ONS figuresover one million people were estimated to be suffering from ‘Long COVID’ in the UK in the four weeks ending 6 March.

As Statista’s Martin Armstrong explains, ‘Long COVID’ is defined as “symptoms persisting more than four weeks after the first suspected coronavirus episode that are not explained by something else“.

As this chart shows, while 420 thousand say that this does not restrict them in their daily activities, 674 thousand are experiencing some degree of problems in this regard.

Infographic: Over one million people reporting Long Covid in the UK | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Note that these figures represent symptoms “as experienced by study participants, rather than clinically diagnosed ongoing symptomatic COVID-19 or post-COVID-19 syndrome.”

The source adds that while “there is no universally agreed definition of long COVID, it covers a broad range of symptoms such as fatigue, muscle pain, and difficulty concentrating.”

END
UK
(LifeSiteNews)//Michael Haynes)

London doctor describes ‘unprecedented’ level of sickness after COVID injection

The doctor and consultant wrote that she was ‘struggling’ to understand ‘the failure to report the reality of the morbidity caused by our current vaccination program within the health service and staff population.’
Wed Apr 7, 2021 – 1:06 pm EST
 

LONDON, U.K., April 7, 2021 (LifeSiteNews) –– In a strongly worded letter to the British Medical Journal, a London-based consultant has pointed to “unprecedented” levels of staff sickness following the COVID-19 injections, describing the “coercion and mandating” of the injection as reminiscent of a “Nazi dystopia.”

Published April 2 in the prestigious British Medical Journal (BMJ), the letter came from Dr. K. Polyakova, a consultant in London, in response to a BMJ article entitled “Do doctors have to have the COVID-19 vaccine?” The journal did not provide further background for Polyakova.

The original article strongly argued for the widespread uptake of the injections by medical staff, declaring that there was a moral duty to do so in order to safeguard public health, as well as downplaying any concerns which might be raised about the efficacy or safety of the injection.

The blithe tone of the BMJ’s article, and the uniform opinions of the four medics cited, raised concerns for Dr. Polyakova. She wrote that she was “struggling” to understand “the failure to report the reality of the morbidity caused by our current vaccination program within the health service and staff population.”

“The levels of sickness after vaccination is [sic] unprecedented and staff are getting very sick and some with neurological symptoms which is having a huge impact on the health service function. Even the young and healthy are off for days, some for weeks, and some requiring medical treatment. Whole teams are being taken out as they went to get vaccinated together.”

Polyakova defended this position by revealing the experience she had had in recent months, managing a health service during COVID times, as well as professing to have “more vaccines in my life than most people.”

While clearly not what has been commonly styled an “anti-vaxxer,” Polyakova wrote that coercive injections would be dangerous and against the ethical principles of the health service: “Mandatory vaccination in this instance is stupid, unethical and irresponsible when it comes to protecting our staff and public health.”

“We are in the voluntary phase of vaccination, and encouraging staff to take an unlicensed product that is impacting on their immediate health, and I have direct experience of staff contracting Covid AFTER vaccination and probably transmitting it. In fact, it is clearly stated that these vaccine products do not offer immunity or stop transmission. In which case[,] why are we doing it?”

Continuing, the consultant referred also to the undeniable lack of data about the hastily developed injections, questioning the long-term effects they would have, particularly on the health service: “There is no longitudinal safety data (a couple of months of trial data at best) available and these products are only under emergency licensing. What is to say that there are no longitudinal adverse effects that we may face that may put the entire health sector at risk?”

Pointing to seasonal flu, which is a “massive annual killer,” which “inundates the health system,” Polyakova commented that the flu vaccines are not only voluntary, but also serve to protect against other illnesses of “higher consequence.”

“Coercion and mandating medical treatments on our staff, of members of the public especially when treatments are still in the experimental phase, are firmly in the realms of a totalitarian Nazi dystopia and fall far outside of our ethical values as the guardians of health.”

Revealing that “I and my entire family” had COVID-19, as well as mourning the death of a “relatively young family member” with underlying conditions, who suffered from heart failure linked to COVID-instigated pneumonia, Polyakova nevertheless maintained a fervent opposition to forced injections.

“Despite this, I would never debase myself and agree, that we should abandon our liberal principles and the international stance on bodily sovereignty, free informed choice and human rights and support unprecedented coercion of professionals, patients and people to have experimental treatments with limited safety data. This and the policies that go with this are more of a danger to our society than anything else we have faced over the last year.”

Employing the popular phrase used by abortion advocates, Polyakova questioned, “What has happened to ‘my body my choice?’”

“What has happened to scientific and open debate? If I don’t prescribe an antibiotic to a patient who doesn’t need it as they are healthy, am I anti-antibiotics? Or an antibiotic-denier? Is it not time that people truly thought about what is happening to us and where all of this is taking us?”

END

UK/coronavirus update

Pubs and gyms reopen as England eases covid lockdowns

(zerohedge)

Pubs, Gyms Reopen As England Eases COVID Lockdowns

 
MONDAY, APR 12, 2021 – 09:10 AM

Crowds queued up outside retailers, gyms and pubs on Monday as barkeeps pulled pints and millions of English  celebrated national reopening day, even as many of the UK’s European neighbors continued to struggle.

The UK is easing its COVID restrictions while other European nations are cranking them up. Restrictions have been in place across England (while other UK constituent nations were allowed to set their own restrictions) since early January, which is when public health officials cranked up the restrictions to try and combat the spread of a deadly, hyper-infectious new variant known as B.1.1.7, otherwise known as “the Kent Strain”.

The BBC dispatched a squadron of photographers to document the historic reopening.

Britain has suffered one of Europe’s worst coronavirus outbreak, with more than 127K confirmed deaths.

Source: Worldometer

Infections, hospitalizations and deaths have all declined in recent months, and a mass vaccination program has administered at least one dose to more than 60% of the adult population.

Still, as the economy reopens,  Prime Minister Boris Johnson and epidemiologists have urged caution, saying that many people remain unvaccinated and relaxing social distancing rules or allowing foreign holidays this summer could bring a new spike in infections.

“The situation in the U.K. is becoming clear and is stabilizing, but people have to remember that’s not the case elsewhere,” said Peter Horby, who chairs the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Threats Advisory Group. “The pandemic is still raging globally.

According to the FT, demand for cash surged in March as British consumers stocked up on cash to take with them to the pub, or elsewhere. Cash withdrawals from Post Office counters totaled £590M in March, the highest amount since last September, excluding a Christmas surge in December.

Gareth Shaw, head of money at consumer group Which?, said that access to cash was still important.

“Millions of people still rely on cash to pay for essential goods and services, however ATM and bank branch closures continued at pace during the pandemic making it harder for people to access the cash that they desperately need,” said Shaw. “As businesses and shops reopen, the FCA must also closely track cash acceptance, as protecting access to cash will be undermined if there is nowhere to spend it,” he added.

However, elsewhere in the world the pandemic is worsening.

India overtook Brazil as the 2nd worst affected by COVID-19 after cases increased by a record 168,912 to a total 13.53mln and deaths increased by 904 to a total of 170,179. It was also reported that India banned the exports of Remdesivir and its respective active pharmaceutical ingredients amid the surge in domestic COVID-19 cases with the ban to last until the situation improves.

Source: BBC

Fortunately, the UK isn’t the only economy shaking off the paralysis of a long COVID winter. Hong Kong plans to relax its travel restrictions for people who have been inoculated, in an effort to boost the low vaccination rate. Across England, indoor drinking and dining won’t be allowed until May 17 at the earliest, while movie theaters and night clubs will remain closed, per the AP.

“The situation in the U.K. is becoming clear and is stabilizing, but people have to remember that’s not the case elsewhere,” said Peter Horby, who chairs the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Threats Advisory Group. “The pandemic is still raging globally. “And many countries in Europe even are still seeing racing case numbers or having to reintroduce lockdowns. So it’s very hard to predict what will happen in the next couple of months,” he told Times Radio.

The FTSE 100 has started the week on a lower note, down 0.42% after being weighed down by banking and mining stocks.

Finally, vaccine passports, or “COVID Status Certificates” as they are officially known, are being tested at major sporting events in the UK this month, with the hope that mass events can open as safely as possible, and could provide a model for the future.

end

GERMANY

German government now planning harsher lockdown measures

(zerohedge)

German Government Pitches Plan To Reimpose Harsh Lockdown Measures

 
MONDAY, APR 12, 2021 – 02:45 AM

After canceling Germany’s draconian Easter lockdown last month, German Chancellor Angela Merkel “took full responsibility” for her misjudgment. But,now it looks like her government is reverting to the decision that new COVID-19 restrictions need to be put in place, before spiking COVID cases lead to a surfeit of deaths.

A new proposed plan has been developed to implement nighttime curfews, sweeping business closures and severe limits on public gatherings. These measures, and more, are all part of the German government’s new bill aimed at “standardizing” COVID-19 measures to stop the third wave.

RT reports that Berlin is currently working on amendments to the national Infection Protection Act, which would reimpose lockdown restrictions and greatly reduce the federal states’ ability to defy the government’s orders, German media that obtained the draft document report.

The document that is expected to be discussed and potentially approved by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s cabinet on Tuesday willrequire all federal states where an average seven-day COVID-19 infection rate will rise over 100 per 100K people.

Such states will no longer be able to find any excuses to avoid imposing the so-called “emergency brake.”

All states over this threshold infection rate will be bound to introduce a standard set of measures developed by the federal government, should the legislation come into force. Such measures involve a night-time curfew between 2100ET and 0500ET, with exceptions made for medical emergencies, professional activities and for people engaged in caregiving, whether for other people or animals.

If adopted, the new measures would impact all German federal states. According to the Robert Koch Institute (Germany’s federal agency responsible for disease control and prevention), only three out of 16 federal states have a seven-day incidence rate below 100 per 100K people. In the western state of Saarland, this rate is 98.8, which means it could potentially cross the threshold at any moment. German authorities are seemingly aiming to implement the new rules as soon as possible.

According to some media reports, Merkel’s federal cabinet and the states’ governments had all assented to the bill.

The German Bundestag President Wolfgang Schauble also made it clear that the parliament could potentially approve the new bill as early as next week. The legislation would then need to pass through the Bundestag,another house of the German parliament representing the federal states, and can come into force as early as April 19, according to some media reports.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

/UKRAINE/RUSSIA

(courtesy NewArmy)

and special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us;

Russian atomic mortars spotted moving toward border with Ukraine

 
 

Russian Armed Forces are deploying its massive atomic mortars to the border with Ukraine, according to videos posted on social media.

Earlier last week, video footage had emerged on social media of the Russian 2S4 Tyulpan self-propelled mortars moving toward the border with Ukraine. The heavy artillery systems were spotted at the railway station in Kropotkin, Krasnodar region.

The 2S4 Tyulpan, also known at West as the M-1975, is a Soviet design 240-mm self-propelled mortar.

 

The heavy mortar mounted on a tracked, self-propelled chassis. A hydraulic system raises and lowers the tube from the carrying position to the firing position. As was customary, the self-propelled artillery system was christened with an alpha-numeric designator (the 2S4) and the name of a flower (the Tulip).

Due to the large size, it can fire high-explosive, incendiary, guided, cluster, neutron and nuclear warheads, some of which are capable of hitting targets at a distance of about 20 km. It can also fire the “Smel’chak” (“Daredevil”), a laser-guided round.

The 2S4 self-propelled mortars had been practically removed from service, with around 430 of these weapons remaining in Russia, kept in storage at military bases, but since 2016 they were partially returned to service.

In addition, earlier in November 2017, Russian media reported the Urals Transport Engineering Plant (Uraltransmash) modernized a batch of unique self-propelled mortars, which for a long time were in reserve. According to the local media, the exact number of upgraded self-propelled mortars is kept secret, but it is noteworthy that the project has been started in 2016.

In December 2017, the artillery brigade of the 2nd combined arms army stationed in the Orenburg region has officially received the first batch of 8 upgraded 2S4 self-propelled mortars.

end

Blinken Warns Of “Consequences” If Russia Acts “Aggressively” In Ukraine

 
SUNDAY, APR 11, 2021 – 11:35 AM

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken took to the Sunday talk shows to put Moscow on notice after Ukraine’s leaders have alleged a nearly unprecedented Russian forces build-up along the border… bigger than any time since 2014. 

Blinken said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Russia faces “consequences” if at any point it acts “aggressively” towards Ukraine

“I have to tell you I have real concerns about Russia’s actions on the borders of Ukraine,” Blinken warned. “That’s why we’re in very close contact, in close coordination, with our allies and partners in Europe. All of us share that concern.”

 

Ukraine’s President Zelensky rallied national forces at the front lines in the Donbass region, via AP.

“President Biden’s been very clear about this. If Russia acts recklessly, or aggressively, there will be costs, there will be consequences,” the secretary of state said further.

But when pressed on potential military options on the table, he responded “I’m not going to get into hypotheticals.”

He cited Russian “actions” on the border at a moment of heighted military exercises that’s involved the mustering of many thousands of additional troops, far more than normal. Here’s more of the Sunday statements in context:

“As we speak right now,” Blinken told Todd, “I have to tell you I have real concerns about Russia’s actions on the borders of Ukraine. There are more Russian forces massed on those borders than at any time since 2014 when Russia first invaded. That’s why we’re in very close contact, in close coordination, with our allies and partners in Europe.”

He added: “President Biden’s been very clear about this. If Russia acts recklessly, or aggressively, there will be costs, there will be consequences.

The Kremlin on Friday had raised the alarm over the potential for broader military conflict in the region which it blamed on Kiev for intentionally stoking tensions and making ‘false’ allegations of a Russian planned offensive. The Russians are blaming the Ukrainian side for the renewed outbreak of shooting and shelling in Donbass.

“The escalation of tensions in the southeast of Ukraine justifies the measures Russia is taking,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday. “The trend in the behavior of the Ukrainian side creates the risk of a resumption of full-scale military action.”

Just as US media is now hyping a “what next?!” doomsday scenario over Ukraine, it appears (dangerously) some Russian officials are doing the same, as Rabobank described at the end of this past week:

A senior Russian military official yesterday stated the start of major military action in Eastern Ukraine would mark the beginning of the end for the country(!); and a Russian friend gave me an (unconfirmed) report that a TV channel he was watching last night had talking heads suggesting it was necessary to set off a nuclear bomb in the ocean to send a signal to the US –which is about to send naval vessels to the Black Sea— that they need to back off. One *hopes* this is all quixotic: markets certainly believe that to be the case, and so continue to rally on the new meme of –a lack of– windmills.

And of course Putin himself has weighed in, charging that it’s Ukraine that’s engaged in “dangerous provocative actions” against Russian-speaking separatists in the eastern Donbass region. He made the accusation in a phone call Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Friday, emphasizing that Russian troops are merely responding to initial Ukrainian provocations.

end

Watch what Putin says on the 21st

Robert H to me

very important!!

 

6.Global Issues

the global response to Covid has absolutely decimated the middle cclass
(zerohedge)
 

Government’s Global Response To COVID Has Absolutely Decimated The Middle Class

 
SATURDAY, APR 10, 2021 – 12:25 PM

Very few, if any, financial outlets have been more outspoken over the last decade about the harm that governments can do micromanaging (and in this case, shutting down) economies than we have been. 

Which is why we weren’t surprised to see a brand new report noting that due to the pandemic (and the ensuing global ‘stimulus’ response) more people than ever are falling out of the middle class. Published by Bloomberg, the report defines ‘middle income’ earners as those making from $10 to $20 per day, smoothed out across geographical borders. Those making $20 to $50 per day are considered “upper middle income”. 

These two brackets make up 2.5 billion people, or about 33% of the world’s population. And of that group are numerous stories from numerous countries of what Bloomberg calls “hard won successes that evaporated overnight”.

The outlook for the future doesn’t look promising, either. The IMF predicts that the global economy in 2024 will be 3% smaller than it would have been if Covid hadn’t happened. For example, India’s GDP will be 5.2% smaller than it would have otherwise been. (And we’re sure no one will do anything to hold China accountable for this massive global dent to GDP, either).

In India, the report highlighted Ravi Kant Sharma, who had spent “more than a decade” saving up to buy a car. He started 2020 with enough for a down payment and plans to celebrate his wedding anniversary. By the end of the year, he had lost his job, ate into his savings and had to put his car on hold. 

“I have exhausted all my savings. We are finding it difficult to pay installments of existing loans,” he said. “My life has been set back by at least three years, even as my dreams have moved beyond my reach.”

Francinete Alves of Brazil is also making sacrifices, eating kidney, tongue, liver and other organ meat sporadically as egg consumption in the meat-heavy country rises. Alves is still employed, making about $881 per month, but soaring food prices have caused her to make changes in her diet. She now looks for discounts at butcher shops before she goes grocery shopping. 

“In the past, 20 reais was enough for you to leave here with a lot of things. I keep thinking about people who have a family to support and receive only a minimum wage,” Alves says. “I honestly don’t know how they live”

In South Africa, 26 year old Mosima Kganyane had finally just leased her own apartment. After Covid hit, her employer faced bankruptcy and laid her off, contributing to the country’s 32.5% unemployment rate. She paid a $271 fee to break her lease and move back in with her family. She now works a temp job and has spent $1,000 to put an addition on her parents house so she could rent a room. 

She told Bloomberg: “Covid-19 taught me not to relax and that I need to fight, to fight for survival because I don’t know what tomorrow holds.”

In Bangkok, food vendors like Yada Pornpetrumpa are dealing with a smaller, laid back crowd of tourists to sell to late after losing 75% of thier business. She now lives on government assistance and her income has plunged 90% per day. 

“Before all of this, when I started setting up my shop, there would already be a line for fruit juice,” she says. “I had a 50% profit on everything I sold.”

Sadly, she concluded with an affirmation that despite having few assets, she remains happy:  “Having a car or a house is just what society tells us we should value, but it doesn’t define the middle class. I have no assets now. But I have peace of mind.”

 
END
CORONAVIRUS// SOUTH AFRICAN STRAIN/PFIZER VACCINE
It seems that the Pfizer Covid vaccine is less effective as the South African variant may evade protection.
(Israeli study/Lubell/Reuters)

South African variant may evade protection from Pfizer vaccine, Israeli study says

 

JERUSALEM (Reuters) -The coronavirus variant discovered in South Africa may evade the protection provided by Pfizer/BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine to some extent, a real-world data study in Israel found, though its prevalence in the country is very low and the research has not been peer reviewed.

 

The study, released on Saturday, compared almost 400 people who had tested positive for COVID-19, 14 days or more after they received one or two doses of the vaccine, against the same number of unvaccinated patients with the disease.

It matched age and gender, among other characteristics.

The South African variant, B.1.351, was found to make up about 1% of all the COVID-19 cases across all the people studied, according to the study by Tel Aviv University and Israel’s largest healthcare provider, Clalit.

But among patients who had received two doses of the vaccine, the variant’s prevalence rate was eight times higher than those unvaccinated – 5.4% versus 0.7%.

This suggests the vaccine is less effective against the South African variant, compared with the original coronavirus and a variant first identified in Britain that has come to comprise nearly all COVID-19 cases in Israel, the researchers said.

 

“We found a disproportionately higher rate of the South African variant among people vaccinated with a second dose, compared to the unvaccinated group. This means that the South African variant is able, to some extent, to break through the vaccine’s protection,” said Tel Aviv University’s Adi Stern.

The researchers cautioned, though, that the study only had a small sample size of people infected with the South African variant because of its rarity in Israel.

They also said the research was not intended to deduce overall vaccine effectiveness against any variant, since it only looked at people who had already tested positive for COVID-19, not at overall infection rates.

Pfizer declined to comment on the Israeli study.

Pfizer and BioNTech said on April 1 that their vaccine was around 91% effective at preventing COVID-19, citing updated trial data that included participants inoculated for up to six months.

 
 

They have been testing a third dose of their shot as a booster, and have said they could modify the shot to specifically address new variants if needed.

In respect to the South African variant, they said that among a group of 800 study volunteers in South Africa, where B.1.351 is widespread, there were nine cases of COVID-19, all of which occurred among participants who got the placebo. Of those nine cases, six were among individuals infected with the South African variant.

Some previous studies have indicated that the Pfizer/BioNTech shot was less potent against the B.1.351 variant than against other variants of the coronavirus, but still offered a robust defence.

VARIANT IS NOT WIDESPREAD

While the results of the study may cause concern, the low prevalence of the South African strain was encouraging, according to Tel Aviv University’s Stern.

 

“Even if the South African variant does break through the vaccine’s protection, it has not spread widely through the population,” said Stern, adding that the British variant may be “blocking” the spread of the South African strain.

Almost 53% of Israel’s 9.3 million population has received both Pfizer doses. Israel has largely reopened its economy in recent weeks while the pandemic appears to be receding, with infection rates, severe illness and hospitalizations dropping sharply.

About a third of Israelis are below the age of 16, which means they are still not eligible for the shot.

end

 

Another myth dies:  COVID cannot live on surfaces and thus transmission from touching is almost nil

(Tucker/American Institute for Economic Research)

Another COVID Myth Dies The Death

 
MONDAY, APR 12, 2021 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The American Institute for Economic Research,

Going to the grocery store in Massachusetts in 2020 guaranteed you would breathe heaps of sanitizer. A full-time employee scrubbed down shopping carts between customers. Conveyor belts at the checkout counter were blasted and wiped between every sale. Glass surfaces were sprayed as often as possible. The plastic keypads on credit machines were not only covered in plastic – why putting plastic on plastic stopped Covid was never clear – but also sprayed between uses. 

Employees would carefully watch your hands to see what you touched, and as you exited the space would cover the area with cleaning spray. 

It was the same at offices and schools. If a single person turned in a positive PCR test, the entire place had to be evacuated for a 48-hour fumigation. Everything had to be wiped, sprayed, and scrubbed, to get rid of the Covid that surely must be present in the bad place. The ritualistic cleaning took on a religious element, as if the temple must be purified of the devil before God could or would come back. 

All of this stemmed from the belief that the germ lived on surfaces and in spaces, which in turn stemmed from a primitive intuition. You can’t see the virus so it really could be anywhere. The human imagination took over the rest. 

I was in Hudson, New York, at a fancy breakfast house that had imposed random Covid protocols. It was cold outside but they wouldn’t let me sit inside, even though there were no government restrictions on doing so. I asked that masked-up twenty-something why. She said “Covid.”  

“Do you really believe that there’s Covid inside that room?”

“Yes.”

Subway cars were cleaned daily. Facebook routinely shut its offices for a full scrub. Mail was left to disinfect for days before being opened. Things went crazy: playgrounds removed nets from basketball hoops for fear that they carried Covid. 

During the whole pathetic episode of last year, people turned wildly against physical things. No sharing of pencils at the schools that would open. No salt and pepper shakers at tables because surely that’s where Covid lives. No more physical menus. They were replaced by QR codes. Your phone probably has Covid too but at least only you touched it. 

“Touchless”’ became the new goal. All physical things became the untouchables, again reminiscent of ancient religions that considered the physical world to be a force of darkness while the spiritual/digital world points to the light. The followers of the Prophet Mani would be pleased. 

Already back in February, AIER reported that something was very wrong about all of this. Studies were already appearing calling the physical-phobic frenzy baseless. 

The demonization of surfaces and rooms stemmed not just from active imaginations; it was also recommended and even mandated by the CDC. It offered a huge page of instructions on the need constantly to fear, scrub, and fumigate. 

On April 5, however, the CDC page was replaced by a much-simplified set of instructions, which includes now this discreet note: “In most situations, the risk of infection from touching a surface is low.” Oh is that so? 

The link goes to the following:

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) studies have been conducted to understand and characterize the relative risk of SARS-CoV-2 fomite transmission and evaluate the need for and effectiveness of prevention measures to reduce risk. Findings of these studies suggest that the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection via the fomite transmission route is low, and generally less than 1 in 10,000, which means that each contact with a contaminated surface has less than a 1 in 10,000 chance of causing an infection.

Whoops. 

So much for the many billions spent on cleaning products, the employees and the time, and hysteria and frenzy, the rise of touchlessness, and gloves, the dousing of the whole world. The science apparently changed. Still it will be years before people get the news and act on it. Once the myths of surface transmission of a respiratory virus are unleashed, it will be hard to go back to normal. 

Fortunately the New York Times did some accurate reporting on the CDC update, quoting all kinds of experts who claim to have known this all along. 

“Finally,” said Linsey Marr, an expert on airborne viruses at Virginia Tech. “We’ve known this for a long time and yet people are still focusing so much on surface cleaning.” She added, “There’s really no evidence that anyone has ever gotten Covid-19 by touching a contaminated surface.”

Still, I’m willing to bet that if right now I headed to a WalMart or some other large chain store, there will be several employees dedicated to disinfecting everything they can, and there will be customers there who demand it to be so. 

How many years will it take before people can come to terms with the embarrassing and scandalous reality that much of what posed as Science last year was made up on the fly and turns out to be wholly false? 

end

Michael Every on this weekend’s and today’s big stories

(Michael Every)

Rabo: Powell Can’t Wait To See “Actual Inflation” To Hike… But What Do We Have Right Now

 
MONDAY, APR 12, 2021 – 09:56 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Inflection/Infection Point

If you are still in the camp that all that really matters is what central banks say, then note “the US is now at an inflection point”. So says Fed Chair Powell on CBS TV. While positive, this does seem to lean in a more hawkish direction: could his credibility be “Gone in 60 Minutes”, after repeated messaging that rates are on hold for years to come? Or is this a special kind of inflection point which still necessitates the lowest rates and most QE ever? It seems so, as Powell added: “We can wait to see actual inflation before we raise interest rates.” What do we have right now, chopped liver?! Yet the primary concern for the Fed is not inflation, but infection. If Covid gets worse again, then the Fed needs to be there: but what if infection doesn’t?

Infection point is what markets will see as: France goes into another lock-down for schools; by contrast, the UK finally begins to open up; Australia and New Zealand launch a trans-Tasman travel bubble; Thailand, with a mass break-out of the UK variant, is nonetheless allowing the whole country to travel for a week for its new year; India is seeing huge vaccination success – and also huge daily Covid case numbers; a Chinese official admits their Covid vaccine isn’t very effective –as the Malaysian press reports several Chinese tourists in Sarawak tested positive for Covid despite having been vaccinated twice in China; and the EU is admitting that even if it buys Russia’s Sputnik vaccine, it will take months to get production numbers up to where they need to be, so no quick fix. This all seems to leans towards a market bias for the US and UK.

Yet one infection inflection point should terrify us: the island of St. Vincent is seeing a massive volcanic eruption – and yet only those with proof of vaccination, just 10% of the population, are being evacuated. And there you were worrying about the idea of needing to show papers or have a facial scan to sit in a pub garden in the UK.

Many other potentially-volcanic inflection points are evident. In China, Alibaba has been hit with a record USD2.8bn anti-monopoly fine, which follows Beijing forcing an elite business school backed by Jack Ma to halt enrolments. China analysts are trying very hard not to see the writing on the wall as large as that from a key scene in ‘The Life of Brian’: “Foreign capital they go the house?” Some things need even larger fonts, however.

The excited tech coverage of China’s launch of its digital CNY last week failed to notice one key detail: according to the Wall Street Journal, “The money itself is programmable. Beijing has tested expiration dates to encourage users to spend it quickly, for times when the economy needs a jump start.” A point long made here is that a sovereign digital currency would not only mean all economic anonymity being removed; and capital flight, short of trading money for goods and shipping them offshore; and that interest rates could be set as negative as needed given no ability to hoard cash; but, crucially, that digital money could be switched off to force you to spend it on what the state wants – or ‘on’, to circumvent the banking system entirely. Would you, as a market player or a CFO, want to hold a digital currency that can disappear from your bank balance as needed?

The White House is catching on to the Great Power and Great Currency game here, Bloomberg reporting: “Biden Team Eyes Potential Threat From China’s Digital Yuan Plans”. For now the US remains concerned about the risk of sanctions evasion (as if that doesn’t already happen): yet the US is also considering a digital Dollar. All the criticisms of DNCY would apply to DUSD too.

Perhaps the more important question is if you will get a choice or not: this is going to be a political, not an economic decision. In May 2017, former Fed Chair Bernanke echoed my earlier warnings (e.g., 2015’s ‘FX Wars’ and 2016’s ‘Thin Ice’) and gave a speech flagging the next downturn would see fiscal and monetary policy cooperation: here we are four years later and that long-untouchable policy is suddenly normal. The same Kalecki/Polanyi logic that predicted Bernanke’s prediction says digital currency is likely to happen at some point too, because fiscal and monetary policy together still isn’t enough in a globalized world unless everyone is doing it – and not everyone can or will.

True, a digital inflection point could still just mean a cashless DUSD and DCNY battling it out for global economic favor. However, at any point they could be used in a truly radical manner. Indeed, digital currencies allow us to more easily replicate the 1930’s splitting of the global gold standard into bifurcated rival currency blocs: how about holding DCNY that can only be spent in China, or a DUSD that works the same way? (Some would say we already have that if you include US financial assets.)

Of course, this isn’t just political but geopolitical. After all, our global financial architecture sits on geopolitical plates. Day to day these don’t move, and markets don’t know how to price for them if they do: yet that doesn’t mean we aren’t moving closer to such an epic move:

  • US Secretary of State Blinken has warned China against encroaching on Taiwan – and also blamed it for helping the initial spread of Covid-19. That’s as the bill mandating deeper US-Taiwan ties works its way through Congress. The US is also sending more warships to the South China Sea, and the Philippines seems to be moving closer to the US once again given what it claims is further Chinese encroachment on its maritime territory. The very fat tail risks here are self-evident: more so given neither side can back down without a serious loss of relative power (which would flow through to FX markets);

  • Blinken has warned Russia any offensive against Ukraine would have “consequences”. It’s not clear what these would be, but military does not appear high on the list. Yet markets thinking this is “’A Small Country Far Away about Which We Know Little” fail to see the tail risks against the broader backdrop;

  • Iran’s Nantaz nuclear reactor was subject to Israeli sabotage (“nuclear terrorism”) according to Tehran, which follows an attack on an Israeli ship by Iran, and one on an Iranian ship by Israel. The Middle East is simmering on an axis involving key sea lanes for global energy; and

  • John Kerry is due in Beijing this week to try to get Chinese cooperation on all matters green. It may well suit Beijing to play nice here in an attempt to leverage that promise against other US actions. Let’s see if the climate crisis provides a genuine geopolitical inflection point or not.

Horror on St Vincent

(zerohedge)

“Horror On St Vincent” – Only Vaccinated Evacuees Able To Flee Amid Fears Of Next Big Volcanic Eruption

 
SUNDAY, APR 11, 2021 – 02:30 PM

Only people who are vaccinated can evacuate on cruise ships as the La Soufriere volcano on the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent erupted on Friday. This creates a “two-tier” society where vaccinated people have already fled the island on cruise ships while non-vaccinated folks are choking on volcanic ash

And just like that the ‘COVID passport’ slippery slope has been amply and frighteningly demonstrated with great clarity in an ongoing life-and-death situation.

As the below CBS clip from this weekend confirms, we’re now already far past some imagined theoretical ‘Brave New World’ slippery slope – indeed we’ve blown past it in the worst nightmare scenario..

As some 16,000 people in the direct path of destruction on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent are now fleeing for their lives – also amid power outages and even water supplies cut – and as the sun has been essentially blacked out by a massive blanket of ash, islanders are now being told they might not be rescued if they don’t have a COVID-19 vaccination.

Get the jab or face death by the destructive force of the volcano is the apparent “logic” according to the rescuing cruise ship operators and island “health” authorities…

St. Vincent and the Grenadines prime minister, Ralph Gonsalves, told reporters in a press conference Saturday that only vaccinated people could evacuate on the cruise ships. 

“The chief medical officer would be identifying the persons already vaccinated so that we can get them on the ship,” Gonsalves told reporters.

Gonsalves’ vaccination rules appear to have been implemented by Barbados, Grenada, Antigua, and St. Lucia’s island nations. These countries are only accepting fully vaccinated refugees.

Twitter users were not pleased with the idea that only those vaccinated people could escape the island. 

“To add to the horror on St Vincent, *only vaccinated* evacuees are being accepted on cruise ships or nearby islands. This is worse than my worst nightmares about vaccine segregation. This has to redouble our determination NEVER to allow covid passes,” said one user. 

Another user said: “VirginIslandsPD volcano erupted in St. Vincent, and their government only evacuated the vaccinated citizens. I call this crimes against humanity”. 

On Sunday, the Caribbean News Network said conditions on the island worsened. There has been “rumbling, lightning and heavy ashfall were observed, and residents reported power cuts.”

St. Vincent’s emergency management organization Nemo tweeted:

“Massive power outage following another explosive event at La Soufriere Volcano. Lightning, thunder and rumblings. Majority of the country out of power and covered in ash.”

Nearly 20,000 people have been forced out of their homes on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent after a volcano erupted there for the first time in more than 40 years. The volcano has had six eruptions — in 1718, 1812, 1814, 1902/03, 1979, and 2021.  

The government is essentially telling its panicked population to take to jab or face death by the active natural disaster and rapidly deteriorating conditions on the small island. Vaccines are creating a two-tier society, an underclass of the unvaccinated population is stuck on the island, bracing for the next big eruption.

end

MONDAY

Another explosion rocks St Vincent

(zerohedge0

Another Massive Explosion Rocks St. Vincent As Hot Ash Rains Down 

 
MONDAY, APR 12, 2021 – 12:42 PM

La Soufriere volcano “continues to erupt explosively and has now begun to generate pyroclastic density currents. Explosions and accompanying ashfall, of similar or larger magnitude, are likely to continue to occur over the next few days,” warned St. Vincent’s emergency management organization (NEMO). 

The ash plume is headed for Barbados. 

Here are the ashfall forecasts and islands to avoid traveling to.

NEMO continued, “the dome has already been destroyed and ejected. The eruption cloud went into the atmosphere and then collapsed, causing pyroclastic density currents.” 

The large explosion at La Soufriere Volcano occurred early Monday morning and could be the biggest one yet. Thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes and placed in shelters. The volcano first erupted on Friday. Cruise ships arrived at the eastern Caribbean island this past weekend, only allowing vaccinated people to leave the island. 

“It’s destroying everything in its path,” Erouscilla Joseph, director of the University of the West Indies Seismic Research Center, told The Associated Press. “Anybody who would have not heeded the evacuation, they need to get out immediately.”

Joseph compares the latest explosion to the one in 1902 when 1,600 people died. In total, the volcano has had six eruptions — in 1718, 1812, 1814, 1902/03, 1979, and 2021.

NEMO said explosions and accompanying ashfall of similar or larger magnitude are likely to continue over the next few days.

Everything is covered in ash. 

Ash raining down on a local community. 

One Twitter user calls it “volcano rains.” 

More pictures of the ash.

Richard Robertson, a geology professor at the seismic research center, told NBC on Monday that pyroclastic flows are some of the most dangerous things that could happen at volcanoes like La Soufriere.

He said: “I shudder to think of if any living creatures were on that mountain…” as very few buildings could withstand the force of pyroclastic flows.

Other explosions this weekend led to power cuts and affected water supplies on the islands. 

Experts still believe larger volcanic explosions are ahead

end
 
 
 
Subject: As the story unfolds…

 

 
And so the cookie starts to crumble…
Daylight killers…
The masks begin to fall off!
“The Chinese biological laboratory in Wuhan is owned by Glaxosmithkline, which (accidentally) owns Pfizer!”  (the one who makes the vaccine against the virus which was (accidentally) started at the Wuhan Biological Lab and which was (accidentally) funded by Dr. Fauci, who (accidentally) promotes the vaccine!
“GlaxoSmithKline is (accidentally) managed by the finance division of Black Rock, which (accidentally) manages the finances of the Open Foundation Company (Soros Foundation), which (accidentally) manages the French AXA!
“Soros (accidentally) owns the German company Winterthur, which (accidentally) built a Chinese laboratory in Wuhan and was bought by the German Allianz, which (coincidentally) has Vanguard as a shareholder, who (coincidentally) is a shareholder of Black Rock,”  which (coincidentally) controls central banks and manages about a third of global investment capital.
“Black Rock” is also (coincidentally) a major shareholder of MICROSOFT, owned by Bill Gates, who (coincidentally) is a shareholder of Pfizer (which – remember? Sells a miracle vaccine) and (coincidentally) is now the first sponsor of the  ‘WHO!
Now you understand how a dead bat sold in a wet market in China has infected the WHOLE PLANET!  “” …. copy and share quickly ….

 

 
end
 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 
 
 
END

 

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY  morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1911 UP .0021 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL MIXED 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.34 DOWN 0.222 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3764  UP   0.0067  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2538 UP .0023 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE BY 21 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1911 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 37,77 PTS OR 1.09% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 245.52 PTS OR 0.86%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.37% // EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang DOWN 245.52 PTS OR 0.86%  

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 37.77 PTS OR 1.09% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.37%  

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 229.52  POINTS OR 0.86%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1743.00

silver:$25.23-

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.669% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.329 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night.

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 92.36 DOWN 10 CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.28% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.11%  UP 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.39%//UP 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.74 UP 0 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 35 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.29% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.03% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1911 UP     .0021 or 21 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.39  DOWN .228 OR YEN UP 23  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3748 UP .0050 POUND UP 50  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 41 basis points to 1.2556

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (UP).. 6.5484

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.750  (YUAN UP)..6.5502

TURKISH LIRA:  8.15  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.11%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 1.671 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.340 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.10 DOWN 10  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 26.07 PTS OR 0.39% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 19.16 PTS OR .13% 

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 7.73 PTS OR .13% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN  33.20  PTS OR .39%  

 

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 27.77 PTS OR .11% 

 

WTI Oil price; 60.02 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 63.52 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    77.45  THE CROSS  HIGHER BY 0.02 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 02 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.29 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OILPRICE 4:30 PM : 59.70//

BRENT :  63.27

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.671..up 1 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.342 up  1 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1908 ( UP 19   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.40 DOWN .219 (YEN up 22 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.12 DOWN 4 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3740 UP 42  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.16

the Russian rouble 77.32   UP 0.10 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 10 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2559  DOWN  43 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.29%

The Dow closed DOWN 55.20 POINTS OR 0.16%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 50.19 POINTS OR 0.36%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  16.87 CLOSED UP 0.18

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.187%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bullard Bloviation Sinks Stocks After S&P Tops Year-End Analyst Estimates

 
MONDAY, APR 12, 2021 – 04:01 PM

The S&P 500 surpassed its average 2021 year-end target price already…

Source: Bloomberg

But that seemed to be the limit… for now. US equity markets roller-coasted around since the futures opened.

Futures leaked lower from Sunday’s open (after Friday’s manic meltup), after weekend news that a new study shows that the South African variant may evade protection from the Pfizer vaccine. Once Asia closed and Europe opened, stocks went bid, ramping back to unchanged by the US cash open, which was met with selling… then a big rebound again at the EU close which got us back to unchanged only for The Fed’s Jim Bullard to burst the brief bubble. However, echoing Friday’s malarkey, the last hour or so saw another panic-bid. Then with minutes to go some Ukraine/NATO headlines seemed to spook stocks a little. The S&P ended unchish, Small Caps were worst with Dow and Nasdaq modestly lower

Bullard specifically suggested taper talk could begin when vaccination rates hit 75% (which could be within 2 months) and his timing coincided with a stop run to Friday’s highs, sparking a the downswing…

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has now closed above its open for 12 straight days… its longest such streak since Jan 2013…

Source: Bloomberg

High yield bonds are not buying this exuberance in equity land…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were sold modestly today amid huge supply with the belly underperforming (5Y +2.5bps, 30Y +1bps). Asia was a buyer, Europe was a seller and US trod water…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y yields traded in a narrow range inside of Friday’s high and low yield…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields continued to tread water…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar oscillated about but ended unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin topped $61k over the weekend and has chopped around since…

Source: Bloomberg

Similar picture for Ethereum which tagged $2200

Source: Bloomberg

Gold and Bitcoin have seriously diverged recently with correlation near record (negative) lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver was the worst performer in commodity land as oil prices managed modest gains…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI chopped around but couldn’t hold $60 again…

Silver fell back below $25…

Finally, let’s circle back to Bullard’s bloviation on the timing for tapering the central bank’s bond-buying program, citing a 75% vaccination rate as a possible threshold to start the debate. That amounts to roughly 240 to 250 million vaccinations, and assuming two doses per person, we’re nearly 40% of the way there.

Source: Bloomberg

Following the innoculations trend since the start of March, we’re on pace to hit 500 million total doses by Aug. 9 — a milestone that would conveniently come just before the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium.

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//THIS MORNING

 
END
ii) Market data

U.S. budget deficit soars to $660 billion in March after stimulus checks are sent out

April 12, 2021 at 2:07 p.m. ET

MarketWatch

Budget deficits to remain large for the next few years

The numbers: The U.S. budget deficit skyrocketed in March after the government approved a $1.9 trillion coronavirus-relief package that included $1,400 stimulus checks for most Americans.

The budget gap more than doubled to $659.6 billion in March from February. It was the third highest monthly deficit ever recorded, the U.S. Treasury Department said Monday.

What happened: Federal spending surged to $927.2 billion last month, a number only exceeded by record increase in outlays last spring at the onset of the pandemic.

The government shelled out hundreds of billions of dollars in stimulus checks, higher unemployment benefits and other social-welfare policies to help Americans get through the pandemic. The most recent bill signed by President Biden was the third federal package since last year.

Tax revenues, meanwhile, totaled $267.6 billion in March. They rose 13% from the same month a year earlier, pointing to an ongoing recovery in the economy.

The U.S. deficit in the first six months of the current fiscal year of 2021 climbed to $1.71 trillion. Before the pandemic struck in 2020, the U.S. never ran an annual deficit that reached that high.

Big picture: The U.S. is likely to run huge deficits for at least the next few years as it copes with the fallout from the coronavirus. A Biden White House plan to spend $2.3 trillion on infrastructure and other initiatives would add to the national debt.

END

March Deficit Blowout: US Spends 3.5x More Than It Brings In; YTD Deficit Is Biggest Ever

 
MONDAY, APR 12, 2021 – 02:50 PM

The covid crisis may be over (with nearly 60% of the population vaccinated, one would certainly hope it’s over), but covid crisis spending is here to stay.

At 2pm, the Treasury released its latest Monthly Treasury Statement which showed that in March, the US budget deficit exploded once again, surging to $660BN, up five-fold from a tiny $119BN last March, driven by a 160% increase in government Outlays which soared to $927 billion – the third highest on record – from $355.7BN a year ago, and from $559.2BN in February.

The large spike is primarily due to the stimulus checks released to households after the passage of the American Rescue Plan (ARP) Act which totaled $339bn and included forgiveness of roughly $87bn in Payroll Protection Program (PPP) loans in March. In total, the government spent $453bn on “income security” in March, with social security ($94BN), Commerce and Housing Credit ($81BN), Health ($71BN), National Defense ($70BN) and other spending far in the rearview mirror.

On the other side of the ledger, revenues rose 13% yoy to $268BN, owing to favorable base effects due to the pandemic. Still, as shown in the chart below, the number is woefully inadequate to (ever) catch up with the unprecedented spending, with March spending 3.5x more than receipts.

This can be seen on a chart showing YTD spending and outlays, with the government now spending ($3.41TN) precisely 100% more than it brings in ($1.704TN) in the current fiscal year.

Finally, on a year to date basis, the US deficit is now at $1.706 trillion after six month, compared to $743.453BN last year. While it is likely that government spending will slowdown now that the latest stimulus is in the books, it is just as likely that it will accelerate in the coming months if Biden’s various infrastructure plans pass.

One thing is certain: the US will never again be able to fund itself using taxation alone, which is now to fund just 50% of the total US budget deficit.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

 

HOME PRICES/USA

USA homes snatched right away as the market is drained of supply. Inflation running rampant

(zerohedge)

US Homes “Snatched Up Right Away” As Market Drained Of Supply 

 
SATURDAY, APR 10, 2021 – 09:50 AM

There has been a clear shift in market mood and sentiment ever since the COVID pandemic: whereas the Fed smashed mortgage rates to record lows, and the federal government delayed the foreclosure wave via forbearances. On top of this, socio-economic chaos in major metro areas resulted in an urban exodus like never before. 

This has led to a shortage in supply and a fierce bidding war that almost half of US homes are selling within a week of hitting the market, according to a new Redfin report.

Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist, said, “new listings are getting snatched up right away.” 

“First it was, the faster you move, the more of an edge you have. Now if you don’t put in an offer five days after it’s listed, you’re not going to be considered at all,” said Fairweather

In the report, he said the housing market “is more competitive than we’ve ever seen it.” More or less, today’s housing market is a speculative frenzy powered by super cheap borrowing rates (thanks Powell) and ultra-low supply. 

Fairweather indicates the red hot demand can’t continue forever and warns: “we’re nearing a peak in terms of how fast demand and prices can grow.” 

Besides record-low mortgage rates and tight supply, the implosion of liberal cities, spiraling into an epidemic of violence following last year’s defund the police movement, resulted in one of the most significant urban exoduses of city dwellers. This has fueled housing markets in suburbs and rural communities, pushing prices up even further. 

With builders unable to build fast enough, more and more prospective homebuyers fight over a smaller pie of listed homes. Redfin data shows the average US home is selling above the listing price as a fierce bidding war has ensued in the spring housing market cycle. In areas like Northern California, homes sell for 107% of the asking prices.

 

Source: Bloomberg 

Buyers have become desperate and offer to wave inspections, pay seller costs, and throw in extra perks to lock in a deal. 

The speculative frenzy has ignited US home prices in 20 major cities, up a shocking 11.10% year-over-year. 

This is the fastest YoY rise since March 2014.

Away from the 20 major cities, prices are rising even faster, up 11.22% – the fastest YoY price appreciation since Feb 2006…

Jim Black, a broker who works in Worcester, Massachusetts, told Bloomberg many houses “are selling in a couple of days with multiple offers, sometimes 10% over list price.”

“It’s as crazy as it has ever been,” Black said. 

There have been reports of buyers in Atlanta writing personal letters and offering gifts of as much as $2,000 just for accepting their offer, said Andrew Kolodey, a Redfin agent.

Allison Health, a realtor with Baltimore-based Northrop Realty, said the housing market is absolutely on fire, and low inventories in the Baltimore Metropolitan Area have unleashed bidding wars that have resulted in soaring home prices. She said the only way to secure a deal is to put in a contract well above the listing price, offer to pay closing costs and wave inspections. 

Readers may recall, one home in Toronto saw 112 showings and received more than 17 offers.  

While Redfin’s chief economist Fairweather warns the housing market is possibly overheating, there are early indications homebuyer demand could soon be waning. We’ve seen this story before, and it never ends well. 

END
Biden’s border Czar abruptly quits…I wonder why?
(zerohedge)

Biden’s Border Czar Abruptly Quits Despite ‘No Crisis’

 
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 07:20 PM

While the Biden-Harris administration continues to insist there’s ‘no border crisis‘ (as they take over seven hotels near the US-Mexico border), the departure of ‘Border Czar’ Roberta Jacobson, suggests otherwise.

Jacobson, a former US ambassador to Mexico who criticized the White House for sending ‘mixed messages‘ to asylum seekers over whether they should head for the border (which Biden absolutely implied during the 2020 election), is stepping down after less than three months on the job.

Suggesting her services were no longer needed (as ICE commandeers seven border-area hotels because government facilities have run out of space)National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Friday that Jacobson’s departure was “consistent with her commitment at the outset to serve in the Administration’s first 100 days,” according to the New York Post.

The move comes as the Biden administration is reportedly considering sending cash payments to Central Americans in a bid to prevent them from making the trek north and as Vice President Kamala Harris, tapped by Biden to handle the crisis, still has yet to visit the border

Meanwhile, migrant parents already in the United States say they are not being given regular — if any — updates about the location or well-being of their children in federal custody. And it’s reportedly costing US taxpayers more than $60 million a week to care for 16,500 unaccompanied migrant teenagers and children now in federally run shelters. -NY Post

Despite thousands of migrant children sitting in US Border Patrol detention facilities – White House officials have maintained that there’s no crisis – because to do so would mean Biden sparked the crisis when he presented himself as an immigrant-friendly antithesis to President Trump – who he now blames for the border surge.

Last month White House press secretary Jen Psaki accidentally referred to the “crisis at the border,” only to correct herself when pressed – calling them “challenges on the border.”

END
Melvin Capital down another 7% in March.  Total losses so far down 49%
(zerohedge)

Melvin Capital Down Another 7% In March, Brings Q1 Loss To 49%

 
FRIDAY, APR 09, 2021 – 08:00 PM

Just two questions: i) is Melvin Capital still short Gamestop and ii) how does it still have any clients left?

That’s what we would like answered first and foremost after Bloomberg just reported that Gabe Plotkin’s notorious Melvin Capital Management, best known for being blown up by a bunch of WallStreetBet redittors over its Gamestop short, and which lost billions of dollars requiring a $2.75BN bailout from Ken Griffin and Steve Cohen, ended the first quarter down 49% after dropping another 7% last month. 

The sharp drop – which “mysteriously” coincided with a sharp surge in Gamestop stock in March – reversed a gain of almost 22% in February – when Gamestop plunged after its historic January surge, which caused Melvin to lose a record 53% of AUM.

 

Gabe Plotkin seen here at Ira Sohn, probably pitching another ticking timebomb.

Another firm which was also caught in the cross hairs of the GameStop saga – Maplelane Capital – which we first profiled here, is reportedly “starting to recover” after losing 45% in January. The fund rose 6.5% in February and 2.1% in March, according to people familiar with the matter, and ended the first quarter with a loss of 39.5%.

The fund benefited from its long and short wagers on technology and consumer-focused companies, a Bloomberg source said. It also appears that unlike some others who claimed the opposite, Maplelane actually did close out its Gamestop short.

Still, after such historic and furious plunges, it’s amazing that anyone is still an LP in either of the two funds, which will take many months if not years of high aggressive – and flawless – performance to recover the January losses. In fact, it’s far more likely that the two funds will lose everything as they aggressively double down with Archegos-style leverage to recover their record losses.

As for our first question of whether Melvin is still short GME, we will have to wait until mid-April when its 13F hits. Assuming the fund is still around by then and hasn’t been converted into a Credit Suisse-special family office.

So how did everyone else do? Well, Senvest – which orchestrated the entire Gamestop squeeze and made a killing on it – remains the top performing hedge fund according to HSBC, with a bunch of familiar names rounding out the top 20 including Odey Europe, Maverick, Glenview, Mudrick and the perfectly titled Tulip Trend fund. On the other side, there are quite a few systematic hedge funds in addition to the public-facing Renaissance fund, RIEF B, which continues to suck unlike its “friends and family only” cousin, Medallion.

END

Supreme Court: 5:4 ruling. Blocks California’s restricts on in home religious gatherings.

(Stieber/EpochTimes)

Newsom Neutered Again – Supreme Court Blocks California’s Restrictions On In-home Religious Gatherings

 
SATURDAY, APR 10, 2021 – 12:00 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Supreme Court late Friday ruled against California, blocking the restrictions ban on in-home Bible studies and other religious gatherings.

The court’s narrow 5–4 ruling was in favor of a group of Santa Clara residents who asserted the restrictions violated the First and Fourteenth Amendments of the U.S. Constitution.

“Applicants are likely to succeed on the merits of their free exercise claim; they are irreparably harmed by the loss of free exercise rights ‘for even minimal periods of time’; the State has not shown that ‘public health would be imperiled’ by employing less restrictive measures,” an unsigned opinion of the court’s majority said in its opinion.

The ruling is the fifth time the nation’s highest court has overruled the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on California COVID-19 fueled restrictions, including a February ruling that saw the court grant a worshipper’s application asking for restrictions on in-person religious services be rolled back.

“It is unsurprising that such litigants are entitled to relief. California’s Blueprint System contains myriad exceptions and accommodations for comparable activities, thus requiring the application of strict scrutiny,” the majority wrote on Friday.

The blueprint system is the statewide criteria for loosening or tightening restrictions based on the level of CCP virus spread.

Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Brett Kavanaugh, Neil Gorsuch, and Amy Coney Barrett made up the majority.

Chief Justice John Roberts, another Republican-nominated justice, joined the court’s liberal wing in dissenting, though he did not sign on to the dissenting opinion authored by Justice Elena Kagan.

Kagan said she would have rejected the application for relief because she felt the state complied with the First Amendment in its limiting religious gatherings in homes to three households since the state had the same restrictions on secular gatherings in homes.

“It has adopted a blanket restriction on at-home gatherings of all kinds, religious and secular alike. California need not, as the per curiam insists, treat at-home religious gatherings the same as hardware stores and hair salons—and thus unlike at-home secular gatherings, the obvious comparator here,” she wrote.

The original order in the case denying the application for relief came from U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh, who said that in light of “the unique risks of gatherings in spreading COVID-19; the deaths and serious illnesses that result from COVID-19; and the overwhelming strain on the healthcare system,” enjoining the state and county restrictions on in-home religious gatherings “would not be in the public interest.”

The Ninth Circuit’s panel upheld Koh’s ruling, writing last month that “appellants had not satisfied the requirements for the extraordinary remedy of an injunction pending appeal.”

“Specifically, the panel held that appellants had not demonstrated a likelihood of success on the merits for their free exercise, due process, or equal protection claims, nor had they demonstrated that injunctive relief was necessary for their free speech claims,” the panel wrote.

Lawyers for the plaintiffs and defense did not immediately respond to requests for comment. California had argued in a brief on Thursday that its policy regarding in-home gatherings applied to all gatherings, no matter their purpose, while also offering the Supreme Court did not need to intervene because the state will relax restrictions later this month.

end

Small business closures soar on the back of pandemic…financial hopelessness builds

(zerohedge)

Small Business Closures Soar Back Near Pandemic Peak As “Financial Hopelessness” Builds

 
SUNDAY, APR 11, 2021 – 03:30 PM

Despite trillions in Fed “stimulus” and endless government handouts, John Stanford, co-executive director of the Small Business Roundtable, told CNBC this week that “it continues to be a very painful time for small businesses.”

“We have to remember, PPP was a bridge program,” Stanford said.

“It was meant to keep people on the payroll, it wasn’t meant necessarily to keep businesses open.”

In what will likely come as a surprise to many, amid political pressure to reopen nationwide – since lockdowns have been shown to be utterly useless – 22% of U.S. small businesses were closed in February, up significantly from October’s 14%, and back near May’s pandemic peak when 23% of small and medium-size businesses closed (just 1 percentage point higher than the current closure rate).

The report, from Facebook and the Small Business Roundtable, found that different areas of the country were experiencing varying degrees of difficulty.

Some states, like Maine, Idaho and Colorado, were seeing 9%-10% closures, while others like New York, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts were seeing at least 30% closed.

“While larger companies with larger capital reserve may be doing OK, small businesses can’t just take the risk to stay open, and I think we’re seeing that play out with these high numbers,” warned Stanford, adding that despite the currency vaccine and Biden Bailous hope, 51% of the businesses surveyed said they were not planning to rehire former employees within the next six months.

Small business leaders expressed their renewed sense of desperation in the survey:

“After 26 years as an owner of this business, very close to total collapse.”

“The pandemic not only shut my doors, but it created massive competition should I even consider returning to operations.”

“Breakdown in family structure and friendships. Feelings of financial hopelessness and simple bills causing stress.”

And judging from consumers’ responses, things don’t look ready to improve anytime soon:

“As much as I would love to support small businesses, I need to be more careful of how I spend money at the time.”

“I do prefer to shop at small businesses, but during the current situation that is hard. Many do not have websites online.”

Bigger businesses tend to be more convenient for online ordering and cheaper.”

It would seem SBR’s Stanford knows this too: “PPP and others really helped get us through a shutdown of a year’s economy, but I think we’ve got a tough road ahead.”

end

Answer: inequality!

John Rubino/DolarCollapse.com

How Can These Two Trends Coexist?

 
SUNDAY, APR 11, 2021 – 02:00 PM

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

Before the pandemic, auto sales were booming, mostly because car loans were available to pretty much anyone with a driver’s license and a heartbeat. “Subprime” auto loans – which charge high interest rates and run for up to eight years (hence the nickname “car mortgage”) – accounted for about 20% of a $1 trillion+ market.

Not surprisingly, the past year’s lockdowns have popped that mini-bubble:

Risky Borrowers Are Falling Behind on Car Payments

(Wall Street Journal) – More subprime borrowers are missing monthly payments on their cars and trucks, pointing to an uneven economic recovery

A greater share of people with low credit scores has been falling behind on their car payments in recent months, a sign of stress among consumers whose finances have been hit hard by the pandemic.

Some 10.9% of subprime borrowers with outstanding auto loans or leases were more than 60 days past due in February, up from 10.7% in January and 8.7% a year prior, according to credit-reporting firm TransUnion. It marked the sixth consecutive month-over-month increase and the highest level in monthly data going back to January 2019.

More than 9% of subprime auto borrowers were more than 60 days past due in the fourth quarter, the highest quarterly figure in data going back to 2005.

But at the same time, this is happening:

US Automakers Report Blowout First Quarter As EV Sales Soar

(Zero Hedge) – The major automakers look to finally be back. And this time around, they’re selling EVs, too.

What’s selling? “Everything,” said one Ford dealer.

“The only explanation that I can even muster is that cars are 2021’s version of toilet paper in 2020,” said Chad Wilson, general manager of Wilson Ford in Saginaw and Midland Ford.

“We are taking a lot of retail orders because we don’t have anything (in stock). Normally between our two stores, we’d have 150-180 F-series in stock. I think right now there might be 10. I do think there’s an element of fear of missing out.”

GM said its U.S. retail deliveries were up 19% in Q1, the company’s first number reported against pandemic-impacted comps. The automaker sold 642,250 vehicles in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2021, according to Bloomberg. While retail sales were up 19%, fleet sales were down 35%
The automaker said its truck and full size SUV plants are currently at full capacity and that it’s seeking to recover lost car and crossover production in the second half of 2021.

Toyota sold 603,066 vehicles in the quarter, a 22% rise from Q1 2020, according to IBD. Even more pronounced was the company’s numbers for March, which were up 87% against the first month of coronavirus lockdowns in 2020.

Volkswagen also posted blowout comps, as sales rose 21% in Q1 to 90,853 vehicles sold. The company was helped along by robust SUV demand while also selling 474 units of its new ID.4, which only went on sale in the U.S. in late March.

So it looks like 1) the car market is still booming and 2) the thing that was driving the boom – subprime lending – is ending.

How can those two trends coexist? Because … inequality.

Lots of people are making lots of money out there, at the same time that lots of other people are too broke to cover their car payments.

As with so many other current problems, this is the result of a seriously screwed-up financial system AND the past year’s lockdowns, which have affected different groups in different ways. The very rich – who own the stocks and real estate that have soared on a tide of easy money – are thriving. The people who work online or who otherwise benefit from the “stay-at-home” e-commerce boom are also doing well enough to indulge in new cars.

But the people left behind by the destruction of restaurants, bars, and brick-and-mortar retail are poor and getting poorer. They were the folks who took out subprime auto loans and are now missing payments. So expect not just auto loans, but credit cards, personal loans, and apartment rentals to see spiking defaults in the coming year.

Since the gap between haves and have-nots was already a chasm before the pandemic, this sudden widening will be a potential flashpoint going forward. Put another way, the aristocracy had better make things right with the peasants before the latter storm the castle.

But therein lies the problem. Booming auto sales are a sign of an overheating economy (as are spiking prices for equities, houses, industrial commodities, and collectibles, among many other things). Such synchronized blow-off tops are usually followed by mirror-image busts which primarily hurt — you guessed it — the same people who were crushed by the lockdown. So the serfs get the shaft coming and going.

And it’s not clear that more easy money – the perennial tool of the 1% to enrich themselves while pretending to help the country at large – will do anything at all this time around.

end
Chip shortages continue as the car industry is getting whacked on these shortages
(zerohedge)

One-Year Delay On Network Router Orders As Chip Shortages Worsens 

 
MONDAY, APR 12, 2021 – 04:15 AM

Initially centered in the auto industry, the semiconductor shortage has now spread to a range of other consumer electronics, including computers, smartphones, tablets, headphones, and appliances. The latest news is that internet routers could become the next victim of chip shortages disrupting global supply chains and may pose a problem for households and businesses who need an internet connection to survive in today’s digital economy. 

Sources told Bloomberg that internet service providers report delays of up to one year for network routers due to chip shortages. This is doubled previous wait times, the source added.

In today’s hybrid work environment, internet routers are among the most critical devices to keep businesses and employees connected. If a router shortage develops, it will prevent an internet service provider from adding new customers to its network. Nevertheless, existing customers wouldn’t have their routers serviced upon malfunction or upgraded if they need more speed. 

Karsten Gewecke, head of European regional business for Zyxel Communications Corp, a Taiwan-based router-producer, said remote work spurred by the virus pandemic led to a massive demand pull for home broadband equipment. The chip shortages couldn’t have come at the worst time as more people work from home. 

Zyxel recently urged customers to order routers well in advance because the lead time for semiconductor components from Broadcom has doubled since last year. Zyxel is a major supplier of routers across Europe.

Adtran, a U.S. network equipment maker, warned customers about upcoming supply chain risks and has more than double its inventory to avoid chip shortages. 

Gewecke said no internet service provider had exhausted their inventory of routers, but supplies will be tight for the next six months. “We have been very close several times,” he said. “It could still happen.”

Susquehanna Financial Group shows lead times for chip orders has just surpassed the 2018 highs. 

 

Source: Bloomberg 

“It’s a snowball effect that we’re pushing in front of us, and the situation since then has just become worse and worse and worse,” said Gewecke. “When I talk to some of the chipset vendors, some of them tell me that they have something like overbooking of 300% of their capacity.”

It comes as no surprise that given the current shortage in semiconductors, chip prices are quickly rising in early 2021. 

Earlier in the year,  we noted that the chip situation had been turning dire and was now being referred to as the “most serious shortage in years”. Qualcomm’s CEO said last month that there were now shortages “across the board.” 

And it wasn’t just Qualcomm or Samsung executives speaking out: industry sources said chip shortages are now beginning to hit Apple

The potential shortage of network routers comes at the worst possible timing as the workforce’s digitalization pushes millions of people into remote or hybrid work that means network routers, if it’s at home or their employer, are more critical than ever. 

end

iv) Swamp commentaries

 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

China March PPI +4.4% y/y, CPI +0.4% y/y
This compared with a median forecast for a 3.5% rise in a Reuters poll of analysts and a 1.7% rise in February.  China’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% from a year earlier in March, the statistics bureau said in a separate statement, compared with a median forecast for a 0.3% rise…
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-inflation/china-march-ppi-4-4-y-y-cpi-0-4-y-y-idUSAZN0126ZN

U.S. producer price inflation posts biggest annual increase since 2011
The producer price index rose 1% in March… Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.5% rise.  The rate of wholesale inflation over the past 12 months climbed to 4.2% in March. That’s the highest level since September 2011. Because PPI was so weak last spring, increases this year are going to push the annual readings higher for at least a few months…  Most of the increase in producer prices last month was tied to higher costs of energy, which jumped 5.9%…. https://t.co/DyPTCHvK3s

March Core PPI surged 0.7% m/m (0.2% expected) and 3.1% y/y (2.7% expected).  PPI tables at link:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

ESMs declined after China’s inflation news and they plunged when the ugly US PPI release, scheduled at 8:30 ET, was delayed for 25 minutes.  However, traders are conditioned to buy early dips in the US – AND everyone knows that stocks like to rally on Friday.  So, ESMs bottomed at 9:06 ET.

Clarida Says Fed Awaits ‘Hard Numbers’ on Jobs, Prices for Move (BS, the #s are here, Fed ignores)
On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is going to likely move above 2% because we’re going to be comparing this year’s prices with last year collapsing prices but we expect in our baseline most of that to be transitory, and for inflation to return later this year to around 2%,” Clarida said…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-09/clarida-says-fed-awaits-hard-numbers-on-jobs-prices-for-move

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said policy makers will await evidence on whether they’re reaching their goals on price stability and employment before adjusting monetary policy https://t.co/VnYn6jjmSF

Fed’s Kaplan says ‘will advocate’ for QE taper once pandemic over
Citing his concerns about excess risk-taking in financial markets and potential inflation, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said Friday he will push for reducing the Fed’s support for the economy sooner than later…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-kaplan/feds-kaplan-says-will-advocate-for-qe-taper-once-pandemic-over-idUSKBN2BW1ZK?il=0

Kaplan also averred that ‘some of the inflation increases in coming months are temporary, but others may not be temporary’.

US government debt hit as analysts braced for $370bn in Treasury sales [over the next three weeks]
https://t.co/GhJyB8Nt63

Boeing tells airlines to stop flying some 737 Max planes because of an electrical issue
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/business/boeing-737-max.html

Millions Are Tumbling Out of the Global Middle Class in Historic Setback
An estimated 150 million slipped down the economic ladder in 2020, the first pullback in almost three decades… with South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa seeing the biggest declines… The pandemic has exposed what political scientist Leela Fernandes calls “the socioeconomic fragility” of India’s middle class, which she likens to “a stock market bubble waiting to burst.”…
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2021-emerging-markets-middle-class/
@disclosetv: AfD party, currently the third-largest group in the German parliament, votes to make Germany’s exit from the European Union, so-called #DExit, part of their party platform for the upcoming national election later this year.

Biden to request $715B for the Pentagon, slight increase from last year – It’s a modest increase from the current level, but below the level projected by the Trump administration in its final budget.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/08/biden-pentagon-budget-480476

Biden admin is considering sending American tax dollars to Central Americans in a bid to prevent them from making the trek north – Reuters

Biden niece worked in Coca-Cola government relations as company lobbied against Uyghur forced labor bill – Missy Owens left position… last November  https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-niece-coca-cola

DeSantis Sues CDC In Major Challenge to Agency’s Sweeping COVID Power Grab
We don’t believe the federal government has the right to mothball a major industry for over a year, based on very little evidence and very little data.” Said the governor…
https://trendingpolitics.com/desantis-sues-cdc-in-major-challenge-to-agencys-sweeping-covid-power-grab/

Revealed: China’s New Super Submarine Dwarfs Typhoon Class – Naval Times
The new submarine, identified as the Type-100 Class, is armed with 48 Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs). It can also carry ginormous nuclear-powered nuclear-armed autonomous torpedoes. And a hangar on its back indicates a smaller submarine will also be supported. There is no doubt that this is the new god of submarines [Good thing the US is focused on wokism & Critical Race Theory!]
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/04/revealed-chinas-new-super-submarine-dwarfs-typhoon-class/

China fines Alibaba $2.8 billion, equivalent to 4% of its 2019 domestic sales, after an anti-monopoly probe into the company https://trib.al/L5zSRH9 [Alibaba is +5.5% on Monday because the inquiry is over.]

Powell was on “60 Minutes” on Sunday night – a big reason for the late Friday equity surge.

Jay Powell says US economy is at an ‘inflection point’ – “because of widespread vaccination and strong fiscal support, strong monetary policy support… The principal risk to our economy right now really is that the disease would spread again…” https://t.co/sgfJU3klNr

Fed Reserve chairman gives rosy economic forecast as Pelosi pushes back
Pelosi was subsequently asked why President Biden is pushing to spend more money if the economy is already in good shape as Powell suggested… “In fact, if you listen very closely to what he said, we’re at a place where we will begin to see. We will begin to see. And then he also cautions against a surge in the virus,” Pelosi said later on “Face the Nation.”…  https://t.co/SpJtMseimw

Fed Chair Powell Warns That Cyber Attacks and Covid-19 Spreading Again Are the Biggest Risks to The Economy https://forbes.com/sites/jonathan

Anti-war activist visited by police after posting embarrassing AOC video
An anti-war activist was visited by California Highway Patrol officers after posting video of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s bumbling comments on Israel-Palestine. The action, which AOC denies triggering, was initiated by a call to US Capitol Police… The cops informed Wentz that they had received a call from the Capitol Police, the federal law enforcement agency tasked with protecting the US Congress, about a tweet he had sent that allegedly threatened Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
https://thegrayzone.com/2021/04/09/anti-war-activist-police-aoc-video/

 

@thebradfordfile: Disagreeing with lunatic AOC will get law enforcement to your home in Biden’s America. Can you see what is happening?

@ColumbiaBugle: @TuckerCarlson’s Monologue on @AOC & Her Office Calling for Her Critics To Be Silenced By Big Tech; Tucker Also Discusses The Disturbing Story Of Police Visiting The Home Of An Anti-War Activist Who Criticized @AOC Online https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1380692518568779782
    Tucker Carlson: “Ryan Wentz hadn’t included any personal information in his social media profile and yet the police knew his name and they knew exactly where he lived. How did they find him? It seems likely that Twitter turned Wentz into authorities on behalf of their friend @AOC.”
https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1380694420027109378

YouTube banned a DeSantis panel discussion because it contained Oxford, Harvard, and Stanford medical experts saying children don’t need to wear masks
https://notthebee.com/article/youtube-purged-a-gov-desantis-panel-discussion-because-health-experts-questioned-whether-kids-need-to-wear-masks

Canada To Censor “Hurtful” Comments About Politicians, Implement Internet Kill-Switch
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/canada-censor-hurtful-comments-about-politicians-implement-internet-kill-switch

A Boston hospital is partnering with Harvard professors to give “preferential care based on race.” Too bad if you have the wrong skin color! https://t.co/xPB6zRS77W

Outrage against [Asian] Yale Law for punishing famed author/professor who backed Kavanaugh for SCOTUS  https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/education/outrage-against-yale-law-punishing-professor-who-supported-kavanaugh

Biden rhetoric on anti-Asian racism undercut by his DOJ dropping Yale lawsuit, advocates say
‘Asian Americans simply are a low priority for the Biden administration.’ author say
    President Biden has spoken out forcefully against anti-Asian racism, but the sincerity of his words is called into question by his administration’s decision to drop a lawsuit against Yale University for allegedly discriminating against Asian applicants…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-asian-racism-doj-yale-lawsuit-affirmative-action

Biden orders study on ‘size’ of Supreme Court, other possible changes amid liberal court-packing push – While court-packing… has been the most high-profile court reform debated, Biden’s executive order seeks to look at other judicial changes, including the lifetime appointment of justices…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-orders-study-size-supreme-court-liberal-court-packing-push

Susan Rice and Obama are running the country and we did not elect them.” — Tucker Carlson

Iran announced it has started up advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges in breach of 2015 nuclear deal  [Iran knows Team Obama is running the US and it pines for a deal with Iran.]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9456683/Iran-sets-uranium-centrifuges-spinning-breach-scuttled-nuclear-deal.html

Iran nuclear site has outage after starting new centrifuges, official calls it ‘nuclear terrorism’
Many Israeli media outlets blamed a cyberattack but did not provide sources, according to the AP.
https://justthenews.com/world/iran-nuclear-facility-experiences-electricity-outage

@EddieZipperer: Reminder: Biden refers to court packing a “power grab” in 2005
https://twitter.com/EddieZipperer/status/1380572833898713094

@EpochTimes: Former NFL running back @HerschelWalker said corporations and critics of Voter ID laws should help minorities obtain photo ID to vote, coming after firms like @MLB, @CocaCola, @Delt  and others criticized Georgia’s Election Integrity law.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/corporations-voter-id-critics-should-help-minorities-obtain-photo-ids-to-vote-herschel-walker_3769355.html

People set fires at Portland, Oregon ICE building https://t.co/yduF98vdVb

@DavidJHarrisJr: Antifa attempted mass murder in Portland. [FBI Dir. Wray says ‘Antifa is a myth’]
https://t.co/RwO348SL24

@Jillie_Alexis: If gun control works, explain Chicago.

Chicago has very tough gun laws, but the DA’s office is lax on prosecution; judges are lax on sentencing and parole boards are lax on releasing violent felons.

One factor in rising gun sales in Chicago? Cash from coronavirus relief checks
Rising levels of gun possession coinciding with a big increase in violence…“You gotta do what you gotta do to stay safe out here,” said the man, speaking on the condition his name not be used…
https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/4/9/22371814/coronavirus-stimulus-checks-fueling-gun-sales

As we keep harping, the leftists that fight to minimize law enforcement, parole, bail and sentencing, largely on the belief that it helps minorities, harm far more minorities by NOT halting urban crime.
BLM Founder Branded “Fraud” After Buying Million-Dollar Home In Mostly-White LA Enclave
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/blm-founder-branded-fraud-after-buying-million-dollar-home-mostly-white-la-enclave

Patrisse Khan-Cullors, one of the co-founders of the Black Lives Matter movement and a “trained Marxist,” is reported to have bought four homes over the past several years, as her activist profile grew and protests raged around the countryhttps://t.co/okCT3iAhzH

We doubt that execs who donated to BLM feel shame.  The donations were largely meant to procure absolution for any past racism, real or imagined, and to inoculate them from future charges of racism.

Twitter Censors Criticism of BLM Founder Buying $1.4 Million Home in Predominantly White Neighborhood
https://jonathanturley.org/2021/04/11/twitter-censors-criticism-of-blm-founder-buying-1-4-million-home-in-predominantly-white-neighborhood/

Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of liberty.” — Thomas Jefferson

 
 

I WILL SEE YOU TUESDAY NIGHT

 

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