APRIL 21//SOLID DAY FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:GOLD UP $14.40 TO $1792.90/SILVER UP 72 CENTS TO $26.49//STRONG GOLD ADVANCE IN TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX: TO 93.3 TONNES//SILVER INCREASES SLIGHTLY TO 14.915 MILLION OZ//WE STILL HAVE A MASSIVE 73,000 OI FOR THE FRONT MAY SILVER DELIVERY MONTH//GOLD FOR MAY WILL PROBABLY HAVE 5.2 TONNES STANDING//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE//VACCINES UPDATE//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE ET AL MAJOR STORIES FOR TODAY//CHINA CONSIDERING A BAILOUT FOR HUGE HUARONG CORPORATION//OREGON NOW CONTEMPLATING PERMANENT MASK WEARING//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1792.90   UP $14.40   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$26.49 UP  $0.72   London spot price ( cash market)

your data.

 
 
 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1794.20 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $26.56//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE

 

 

PLATINIUM  $1220.89 UP $30.46

PALLADIUM: 2883.16 UP $115.09  PER OZ

 

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagle

James Mc late this afternoon…april 15/

If gold and silver are so dull and boring like the Crimex trading implies, and like the MSM narrative goes, then why haven’t the physical coin premiums backed off one iota for nearly a year? Gold Eagles are still +$160 and up to spot, Silver Eagles are anywhere from $10-15 over spot. Does this sound like lackluster demand? Even the narrative about coins being different than bulk physical doesn’t add up. With commodity shortages affecting virtually everything on the planet it makes no sense that silver would miraculously be plentiful and cheap. Solar panels are going crazy, industrial demand is bonkers, and mega- wealthy people still view gold and silver as wealth.

Jim McShirley

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today 18/41

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,777.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/20/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 04/22/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 2
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 11
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 27
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 10
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 18
737 C ADVANTAGE 9
905 C ADM 2
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 41 41
MONTH TO DATE: 27,045

 

ISSUED: 0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped: 2

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL. CONTRACT: 41 NOTICE(S) FOR 4100 OZ  (0.1275 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  27,045 NOTICES FOR 2,704,500 OZ  (84.121 tonnes) 

SILVER//APRIL CONTRACT

 

5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 25,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2813 for 14,065,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $54,706   DOWN 1896

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:  $55,673 DOWN 929 DOLLARS  

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD UP $14.40  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:  A PAPER  DEPOSIT OF 0.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM GLD

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE B OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD: 1,021.70 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHDRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULTS. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

573.188  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 168.12 UP $1.64 OR  0.99%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 24.70 UP $0.74 OR 3.09%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER  ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 96 CONTRACTS FROM 169,324 UP TO 169,420, AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR TINY $0.01 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON TUESDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO A HUGE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE GAINED A STRONG 1064 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 968,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:   MAY:  687, JULY 281 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 968 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM! SILVER IS IN BACKWARDATION AND AS SUCH THE DANGER TO OUR BANKERS IS LONDONERS WILL PURCHASE CHEAPER FUTURES METAL OVER HERE AND THEN TAKE DELIVERY.

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 33 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***(5THHIGHEST RECORDED STANDING FOR SILVER)

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT (3RD HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC. (4TH HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

2021

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.915 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT ROSE BY $0.01). OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS  WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN OF 1342 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, THE GAIN WAS DUE TO i)HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  ii) GOOD REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL INCREASE IN SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER  RISING TO 14.915 MILLION OZ, iv) SMALL COMEX OI GAIN AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON APRIL  1)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 
 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

 

APRIL

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAR:

10,463 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 10,463 CONTRACTS) OR 52.315 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 697 CONTRACTS OR 3.487 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 52.315 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL:  52.315 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: : 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

APRIL: 52.315 MILLION OZ  (SILVER IS NOW IN SEVERE BACKWARDATION AND THUS DRAMATICALLY FEWER ISSUANCE OF EFP’S)

 

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY ADVANCE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 96, WITH OUR $0.01 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 968 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1064 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  $0.01 GAIN IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY WAS THE HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING AND OUR MONTH OF MAY’S OPEN INTEREST REFUSING TO BUCKLE MUCH TO FUTURE MONTHS. THE BANKERS SEE THE TEA LEAVES FORMING AND THEY ARE GETTING OUT OF DODGE IN A BIG WAY…TOO MANY LONGS (AND OUR WHALE) STANDING FOR DELIVERY…

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  968 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A TINY SIZED INCREASE OF 96 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.01 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $25.75//MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW APRIL.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 5 NOTICE(S) FOR 25,000, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE SILVER IN BACKWARDATION (INDICATING SCARCITY), WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1578 CONTRACTS TO 471,738,AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE  OF $8.25///COMEX GOLD TRADING//TUESDAY. AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A VERY TINY LOSS OF 67 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  WE ALSO HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING RISING TO 93.228 TONNES, AS 912 CONTRACTS (OUR ILLUSTRIOUS BANKERS) QUEUE JUMPED AHEAD OF THE LINE LOOKING FOR GOLD METAL.  (91200 OZ OR 2.861 TONNES)

 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.25 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A TINY LOSS  OF 67 OI CONTRACTS (0.208 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1511 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .  APRIL:  0 AND JUNE:  1511  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1511.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 471,738. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 67 CONTRACTS: 1578 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1511 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 67 CONTRACTS OR 0.208 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1511) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (1578 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  67 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOLLOWED BY A STRONG GAIN TODAY FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH ON DAY 15 OF THE DELIVERY CYCLE TO   93.228 TONNES)  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) TINY COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND ….ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING TUESDAY//$8.25!!.

 

 
 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

APRIL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 35,477, CONTRACTS OR 3,547,700 oz OR 110.34 TONNES (15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2365 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 110.34 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 110.34/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.97% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      110.34 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 96 CONTRACTS FROM 169,324 DOWN TO 169,420 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING// GOOD REDDIT// RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL RISING TO 14.915 MILLION OZ//., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.

EFP ISSUANCE 968 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  0 ; MAY: 968 AND, JULY: 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 480 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 96 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 968 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1064 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.320 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR TINY $0.01 GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge + OTHER COMMENTARIES

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.01 PTS OR 0.00%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 513.81 PTS OR 1.76%     /The Nikkei closed DOWN 591.83 POINTS OR 2.03%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.32%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4973 /Oil DOWN TO 61.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.69 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4973. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4954   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 
 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA VS USA//

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1578 CONTRACTS TO 471,738 MOVING FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN OF $8.25 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING…WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1511 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID OFF NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY.  

WE HAVE ALSO  LATELY WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1511 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;  AND APRIL:  0, JUNE:  1511 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1511  CONTRACTS .(DESPITE THE STRONG BACKWARDATION IN GOLD FOR JUNE/APRIL VS SPOT)

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED 67  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1511 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 1578 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL  (93.228 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWS MARCH:  (30.205 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $8.25)., AND  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL NET LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 67 CONTRACTS.  THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 0.208 TONNES TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (93.228 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 67 CONTRACTS OR  6700 OZ OR  0.208  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  471,738 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 47.17 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1467 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1467/2200 OR 66.69% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:167,617 contracts// volume extremely poor/DREADFUL   //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  176,101 contracts//  volume:   extremely poor/ hopeless!/ //most of our traders have left for London

 

APRIL 21 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR APRIL COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
 
 
 
48,226.44, OZ
INCLUDES
INT. DELAWARE  1000 KILOBARS

 

and

MALCA: 16,075.500 oz

500 kilobars 

 

total weight removed: 

 

1.5 TONNES

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz

nil

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
nil OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
41  notice(s)
4,100 OZ
(0.1275 TONNES
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
2928 contracts
(292800oz)
 
9.107 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
27,045 notices
2,704,500 OZ
84.12 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 
 
 
 
 
total deposit:  nil   oz
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account
 
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS: nil  oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 2 withdrawals
 
i) Out of Int Delaware:  32,150.94 oz (1000 kilobars)
ii) out of Malca:  16,075.500 oz (500 kilobars)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
total withdrawals:  48,226.44 oz (1.5 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 2  kilobar transactions (2 out of 2 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  0:   

 
 
 
 

The front month of APRIL registered a total of 2969 CONTRACTS for a LOSS of 832 contracts.  We had 1744 notices filed on TUESDAY, so WE GAINED A MONSTROUS 912  contracts or an additional 91,200 oz  (2.836 TONNES)  will stand for gold in this very active delivery month of April./ They refused to morph into London based forwards where they will circulate as serial forwards or be paid handsomely to cash settle. They decided it was in their interest to search for metal over here. No doubt it was bankers who queue jumped ahead of other investors as the need to put out fires elsewhere intensified.

 

 
 
 
 

MAY LOST  A STRONG 175 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1700.

WE SHOULD HAVE ABOUT 5.3 TONNES OF GOLD STAND IN MAY A LOT HIGHER THAN I EXPECTED.

JUNE LOST 890 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 386,368

We had 1744 notice(s) filed today for 174,400   oz

FOR THE APRIL 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  41  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 18 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 2 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (27,045) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (APRIL:  2969 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 41 x 100 oz per contract) equals 2,997,300 OZ OR 93.228 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices filed so far 27,045 x 100 oz  + (2969 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (41} x 100 oz which equals 2,997,300 oz standing OR 93.228 TONNES in this  active delivery month of APRIL. This is a HUGE/ATMOSPHERIC amount standing for GOLD IN APRIL, A GENERALLY STRONG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. (NUMBERS CORRECTED FROM A SLIGHT ERROR YESTERDAY)

 

WE GAINED 912 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 91,200 OZ WILL STAND FOR GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

351,292.365 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.92 TONNES

312,798.505, oz  JPM  10.162 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

67,422.339, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.097 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,286,115.402 oz                                     71.10 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 484.76 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 93.228 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  17,871,313.760 oz or 555.87 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,286,115.402 oz or 71.10 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,585,198.0 (484,76 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,585,198.0 (484.76 tonnes)
 
total eligible gold: 17,541,783.822 oz   (545.62 tonnes)
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 35,413,097.582 oz or 1,101.49 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  975.15 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
APRIL 21/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/APRIL

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/APRIL

APRIL. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
nil
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL
 
oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
581,487.080
 
 
 
 
 
whatever enters the comex faults
leaves
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
5
 
CONTRACT(S)
(5,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
170 contracts
 850,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  2813 contracts

 

14,065,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer 
 
 
 

total dealer deposits: NIL        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposit into the  oz

customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into  JPMORGAN:  581,487.080 OZ

 

 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 187.92 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.62% of all official comex silver. (187.92 million/364.031 million

total customer deposits today:581,487.080   oz

we had 0 withdrawals

 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals nil   oz

We had 3 adjustments:   3 dealer to customer

 

i) JPM:  4973.900oz

ii) CNT: 5077.889 oz

iii) Manfra;  136,507.248

and

 

 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 119.617 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  364.031 million oz

a net 0.581 million oz enters the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The month of April saw 175 contracts standing for delivery for a LOSS of 10 contracts.  We had 11 contracts served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 1 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 oz will stand for delivery over here as they refused to morph into London based forwards.
 
 
 
 
 
 

May  LOST A SMALL  5292 contracts to stand at  73,754 contracts. May is the next active month and it seems the cavalry are showing up for physical silver as well. Thus we have April, a non active month having an initial 14.915 million oz stand and May with open interest refusing to buckle. 

 

To give you an idea of the strength of the May contract, let us compare the open interest remaining today vs last year. At this same time, TUESDAY APRIL 21/2020) we had 42,179 oi contracts still outstanding on the May 2020 CONTRACT.  This year:  73,754  still outstanding!!.

LAST YEAR 1478 CONTRACTS ROLLED ON APRIL 21 ; TODAY 5292 ROLLED /

WE HAVE 7 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE!(LAST YR 7 READING DAYS)

LAST YEAR WE HAD FINAL MAY SILVER OZ STANDING:  45.220 MILLION OZ/(5TH HIGHEST STANDING FOR SILVER EVER RECORDED)

June LOST 17 contracts up to 1103.

July gained 4850 contracts up to 73,764 contracts

 

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE OUR WHALE STANDING FOR SILVER METAL.  ERIC SPROTT’S FUND HAS NOTIFIED THE SEC THAT THEY ARE DOING A SHELF OFFERING OF $2 BILLION FOR SPROTT SILVER PHYSICAL FUNDS  (PSLV). IS ERIC TAKING ON THE CROOKS BY STANDING FOR METAL IN  MAY? THE MAY OI NUMBERS HAVE REMAINED EXTREMELY HIGH NOW FOR THE PAST 16 DAYS AS THEY REFUSE TO BUDGE. I NOW THINK THAT WE MAY HAVE TWO WHALES STANDING.  MAYBE MAINLAND CHINA?

 

The total number of notices filed today for APRIL 2021. contract month represented by 5 contract(s) FOR 25,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  2813 x 5,000 oz = 14,065,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (175) and the number of notices served upon today 5 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the April standings for silver for the APRIL/2021 contract month: 2813 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (175)  – number of notices served upon today (5) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 14,915,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE APRIL MONTH. 

WE GAINED 1 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL  STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THEY REFUSED TO BE BOUGHT OUT THROUGH THE EFP CHANNEL IN LONDON.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 106,554 CONTRACTS // volume: strong volume today// generally falling off a cliff//  

 

FOR YESTERDAY 89,648  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ good

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO -0.29% (APRIL; 21/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO –1.66% to NAV:   (APRIL 21/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/0.29%(APRIL21/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/)

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

 

NAV 18.57 TRADING 17.97//NEGATIVE 3.23

 

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD UP $14.40 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESSTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.04 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.25 TODAY A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.2 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.66 TONNES.

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD UP $13.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.86 TONNES

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD UP $29.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.21 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.86 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.07 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.07 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.07 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.67 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.02 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP $16.90 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF .36 TONNES FROM THE GLD//NVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.69 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.05 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES.

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD UP $13.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD… A DEPOSIT OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.62 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH//25: WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES//GOLD REST AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $7.75 TODAY://A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.42 TONNES OF GOLD: THIS GOLD IS BEING RETURNED TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND ON A PHONY LEASE SCAM//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.36 TONNES.

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 , NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.07 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A REMOVAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.27 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.23 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.98 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $37.40 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.44 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

APRIL 21 / GLD INVENTORY 1021.70 tonnes

LAST;  1043 TRADING DAYS:   +87.74 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 943 TRADING DAYS// +  272.26TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.188 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIST OF 1.114MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INENTORY RESTS AT 573.188 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.671 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.074 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 16.WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.113 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.745 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 7 /WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ. 

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 256,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ

APRIL 1.WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.898 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 417,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY REST AT 579.022 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.042 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER AT 5.20 PM:  1.949 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.253 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 582.596 MILLION OZ

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ./

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY,TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.486 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLVAT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 2.599 MILLION OZ WITHRAWWAL AT 5:20 ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/ (TOTAL SILVER LEAVING 4.085 MILLION OZ)

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; AT 3 PM: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.507 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366  MILLION OZ///

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

APRIL 21/2021
573.188 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)LAWRIE WILLIAMS:

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Russia stands pat on gold reserves.

The Bank of Russia, that nation’s central bank, always seems to be on schedule in announcing changes, or otherwise, in its foreign exchange holdings, of which gold holds an important position. On the 20th of each month, unless that date falls on a weekend or holiday, it publishes its forex update. Gold followers will no doubt be well aware that the Russian central bank was mostly the world’s biggest central bank purchaser of gold up until April last year when it ceased all gold purchases in favour of persuading its gold miners to sell their output directly on the global gold market – a position it was happy to announce in advance.

Russia is probably the world’s third largest gold producer, running extremely close to Australia in second place, but with an announced intent to raise output sufficiently to overtake China – currently the world No.1. At current likely rates of increase, coupled with a possible decline in Chinese output, mostly on environmental grounds, it would yet take several years for Russia to achieve that particular goal.

Yesterday the bank announced yet another month of zero gold purchases or sales with its holdings remaining at 73.8 million troy ounces (2,295.4 tonnes). The policy of forcing its gold miners to sell their output on the open market, rather than to the state, has given a huge boost to the country’s balance of payments account which had been decimated by the collapse in price of the country’s principal export – oil and gas. However the recovery in the oil price in particular has prompted us to speculate that the central bank might return to making gold purchases in its continuing efforts to reduce dependence on dollar-related assets in its reserves. However if it is to do so it would probably announce such a policy change in advance, and there’s no inkling of that yet.

With its sanctions policy and its vehement opposition to the NordStream 2 gas pipeline across the Baltic to Germany, the U.S. seems to be continuing to conduct economic warfare against the Russian economy. So far this seems to have had little serious effect with Russian trade increasing with ‘friendly’ nations to counteract sanctions on trade with U.S. allies, and gold replacing oil as the major export earner. Russia remains worried about being cut off from the Western-controlled SWIFT, The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, which, according to Wikipedia, provides a network that enables financial institutions worldwide to send and receive information about financial transactions in a secure, standardised and reliable environment. SWIFT is thus a key element in world trade. The system is effectively controlled by the U.S. which has thus prompted those countries which might feel vulnerable to being cut off from it – notably Russia and China – to try and build an alternative system – a work still in progress.

21 Apr 2021

or

EGON VON GREYERZ// 

Every Physical Silver Ounce Has Been Sold Up To 1000x

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 02:46 PM

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

The silver price is today half of the January 1980 level. That was the peak at $50 which silver reached again 31 years later in 2011. But alas, the bullion banks, aided by the BIS (Bank for International Settlement) and central banks have again managed to push it down again and today silver is only $26.10.

The current silver price has nothing to do with supply and demand. In a real market the Price of Silver would be substantially higher. In a fake market, the manipulators have no problem to suppress the price by selling virtually unlimited fake paper silver.

EVERY SINGLE OUNCE OF PHYSICAL INVESTMENT SILVER IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE 500-1000 PAPER CLAIMS.

The LBMA and Comex clan has sold their physical silver up to 1,000X over.

If a salesman has a demand for 1,000 items of a product of which he possesses the only one available, he will first rub his hands and then perform a victory dance. He knows he will achieve an astronomical price.

And that is exactly what would happen in a free silver market. But since the paper silver issuers know that they are dealing with totally clueless buyers who don’t understand that there is no silver, they will continue to stuff the gullible buyers with more fake silver.

That is, until the buyers wake up and ask for delivery to find out that the silver vaults are empty.

We know that the silver market is very strained already. Retail silver can fetch margins up to 50% and they have been at 100% premium. But at least when people buy retail silver from a reputable dealer and take delivery, they know that they have real silver.

I have warned investors many times not to buy gold or silver ETFs or funds of any kind. The risks are multiple. Here are some of them:

  • It is a paper security held within the financial system

  • It has multiple counterparty risks

  • The gold/silver holdings are not segregated from custodians’ assets

  • It owns no gold/silver directly

  • The gold/silver is stored within the banking system

  • The gold/silver held is probably rehypothecated

  • The gold/silver is not fully insured

  • Investors have no access to their gold/silver

There have been many reports of problems of getting physical delivery from mints and bullion dealers.

PROBLEMS AT THE PERTH MINT – AGAIN

John Evans of As Good As Gold Australia has reported extensively on the problems at the Perth Mint. Numerous investors holding paper or synthetic silver with the Perth Mint are reporting delays of 4 months when they ask for delivery. Even clients who have demanded and paid for their silver to be transferred from unallocated to allocated have been told that they can’t get delivery.

The Perth Mint is owned by the government of Western Australia so you would not expect them to renege on their commitments. Still, I wouldn’t store my gold with any government whether it is in Australia, Canada or the US.

Interestingly, I remember the Perth Mint having similar problems 10 years ago, when the delay for getting physical delivery of the gold and silver certificates was up to 6 months!

So it is not the first time that the Perth Mint is in trouble. When not even a government owned organisation can be trusted, it is clear evidence how careful investors must be.

BUYER BEWARE OF ANY PAPER GOLD & SILVER

It is not easy for precious metals investors to navigate through the jungle of problems in the precious metals market.

  • You can’t trust the bullion banks and their paper metals.

  • You can’t trust certain mints or bullion dealers.

  • You can’t trust gold or silver ETFs or funds.

  • You can’t trust futures exchanges.

  • You can’t trust banks to hold your metals.

Gold and silver must be owned and held directly in physical form. The precious metals must be stored outside the banking system in the safest vaults and jurisdictions. The investor must also have direct personal access to the vault.

You should never store more gold and silver at home than you can afford to lose. It doesn’t help with a good safe when burglars come to your house and threaten members of your family when you are in.

HYPER- STAG- IN- DE- FLATION

The debate about -flation continuous with both camps feeling strongly about inflation or deflation. I have for many, many years been of the firm opinion that this economic cycle will lead to hyperinflation.

But it is not as simple as that. Hyperinflation is a monetary event and arises as a result of a major increase in money supply which leads to the total debasement of the currency.

We already have both a massive increase in money supply and all major currencies which have declined by 97-99%. The next phase will be unlimited money printing combined with a substantial increase in the velocity of money.

However, hyperinflation is not the only flation we will experience. We will also see stagflation and deflation.

The hyperinflation will occur in most commodities including food, oil, hard assets and especially gold and silver.

Bubble assets like stocks, bonds and property on the other hand will see deflation – at least in real terms. Real terms means measured in constant purchasing power like gold.

There will also be stagflation which means economic stagnation combined with inflation.
The flation which ordinary people will notice will be hyperinflation. The cost of living and especially food prices will rise dramatically. At the same time, many people will lose their jobs. Pensions and social security payments will not in any way keep up with inflation and many people will sadly be destitute.

MASSIVE ASSET DESTRUCTION FOR THE WEALTHY

The deflation or collapse of bubble asset prices like stocks, bonds and property (in real terms) will be mostly noticed by the wealthy. They will experience a devastating decline in their wealth. The current bubble of billionaires’ and millionaires’ fortunes will burst and $100s of billions of assets will go up in smoke.

The Arnaults, Gates, Musks, Bezos and Zuckerbergs of this world will not understand how quickly their wealth disappeared. Easy come and much easier go!

But don’t get me wrong. None of these guys will be poor. They will still have massive wealth although it might have gone down by 75-95%. Obviously with that kind of drop, they will feel extremely poor.

The biggest beneficiaries of the coming wealth transfer will be owners of commodities, like food and hard assets.

MARKETS

The turn in markets is slowly approaching. No one should hold ordinary stocks now. The risk is massive and a crash can happen at any time. It is never worth squeezing the last few pennies out of a 40 year (at least) bull market. Even worse to follow it 90%+ down (in real terms) in the coming years.

GOLD HAS TURNED

When I sent the tweet below out on March 31st, gold was $1,707. Gold had twice touched the $1,670s and told us that the 8 month correction was finished.

The price is up $80 since the tweet but that is just the beginning. Sadly, very few investors have taken advantage of this opportunity to acquire gold at a low price. Now is still a great time to get in on what will be the biggest bull market in the history of gold and silver.

What investors must remember is that on the other side of the gold and silver coin is a collapsing currency.

That is why wealth preservation is so critical. Not only will stocks, bonds and property collapse but so will the value of money. So going liquid is not the solution.

Again, history tells us what the solution is and if you defy history, you will come to regret it.

 

OR

Peter Schiff..

 
or
PAM AND RUSS MARTENS

Wall Street On Parade

-END-

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Brien Lundin: Everything revolves around gold

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

Priced in gold, stocks are now lower than they were in the 1960s.

* * *

By Brien Lundin
Gold Newsletter, Metairie, Louisiana
Monday, April 19, 2021

When I give presentations to “newbie” gold investors, I lead off with a simple question:

What is an ounce of gold worth today?

The answer: An ounce of gold.

I follow that up by noting that the dollar, on the other hand, is currently worth about 1/1,750th of an ounce of gold

end

Craig Hemke urges everybody to join him to act against silver price suppression

(Sprott/Hemke)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Who is ready to act against silver price suppression?

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

By Craig Hemke
Sprott Money, Toronto
Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Many of us are fed up. We’ve dealt with the overt bank price manipulation of the Comex precious metals for years, if not decades, and we’re all ready for it to end.

Individually we are powerless to stop it, as the banks and their captured “regulators” collude to maintain their power. 

However, collectively we may stand a chance to overwhelm and break them. Who’s ready to take action? …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/A-Time-to-Fight-Back-Craig-Hemke-April-…

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Tom Luongo on Bitcoin and what to expect in the near future..

Tom Luongo

The Bankers Are Coming! The Bankers Are Coming… For Your Bitcoin

 
TUESDAY, APR 20, 2021 – 08:05 PM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

One of the oldest arguments against Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies in general, is the Central Banker Attack. Anyone who’s spent more than fifteen minutes inside the crypto-world will have heard this one.

That’s the argument where the person tacitly admits bitcoin isn’t a scam or vaporware but then says, “Well, if it gets too big, they’ll just make it illegal.” What’s most baffling to me is that this argument is mostly made by those who swear by their gold holdings while simultaneously swearing at the central bankers for ruining the world.

I get that it’s mostly a coping mechanism for watching crypto go ballistic while gold languishes under the control those same central bankers. And, in the past, I had a lot more sympathy for that perspective than I do now. Because today, at a total valuation around $2 trillion, we’ve arrived at that moment where the bankers and politicians are coming for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and they are coming hard.

Since last week’s Coinbase IPO Bitcoin has been under constant and persistent attack. Bitcoin pushed through its former peak at $61,800 and since then there have been massive, coordinated dumps to push the price back down.

That pushed Bitcoin back below it’s previous high and COIN’s tumble from an overpriced IPO didn’t help matters.

Then Turkey announced it would, like India, that it would ban the use of cryptocurrencies as payments on Friday.

At nearly the same time, however, China announced it was allowing Chinese banks to import up to 150 tonnes of gold for retail distribution for the first time since 2019. This led some to speculate about a ‘gold-backed yuan’ but I don’t think that at all.

This was simply another counter-move to the ones made against the cryptocurrency markets. Like the Archegos Capital tac nuke that is still creating aftershocks throughout the financial system, China’s announcement sent gold, which was firming but still very vulnerable to the downside, through near-term resistance to close the week above the magic $1760 level.

One has to realize just how important gold’s non-confirmation of bitcoin’s rally has been to undermine it in the eyes of major money managers. Gold is an asset the central banks control most of the supply of. Bitcoin is the opposite, an asset the central banks presumably control none of.

So, when casting your eye around the market landscape who are the people, other than the bitter gold-only bugs, most bearish about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies? The ones who made/make their living off the U.S. dollar-based system.

Between them and those that have a kind of monetary policy Stockholm Syndrome there’s still a massive number of people who just can’t or won’t get involved at this point. At a minimum, many pros are simply waiting for a real correction they can get behind to finally take the plunge.

But bull markets, real bull markets, are brutal to people who refuse to get on board and the longer it goes on the more strident in their opposition they become. Hence the constant sniping and backbiting by people who should know better amplifying the truly clueless takes on the situation.

Thanks to the Chinese on Friday a simultaneous wipeout of both gold and bitcoin was avoided with gold breaking out and bitcoin mostly holding serve, throwing no technically significant bearish signals into the weekly close.

Averting a weekly close above the March high helped set up what happened on Sunday early morning.

These attacks were honestly not terribly successful until a series of uncorroborated rumors of the SEC going after Bitcoin account holders for money laundering emerged on Twitter this weekend.

From Zerohedge on this:

Whereas this account traditionally blasts Reuters or Bloomberg headlines, in this case there was no such underlying report from either Reuters or Bloomberg, and Bloomberg even said that “several online reports attributed the plunge to speculation the U.S. Treasury may crack down on money laundering that’s carried out through digital assets.”

Furthermore, in comments just earlier this week, regulators refused to take a position on bitcoin either way, even as speculation of a crackdown against bitcoin by the US government is ever present – indeed, the rumor of a “crackdown” against money laundering has always been present, which is why said tweet merely poured gasoline on an already jittery market.

Then there were the blackouts in China which took a huge amount of hashing power offline for a few hours this weekend.

But, honestly, this kind of bearish price action into Sunday morning is normal. I do a report for my Patrons every Sunday morning and there is always shenanigans while I’m asleep Saturday night. I go to sleep and everything is fine and I wake up the next morning and bitcoin is off some amount. Sometimes it’s technically scary, like this week and sometimes it’s just sad.

Now, Zerohedge is right that the market should be jittery, certainly. Any asset that climbs 20x in a year is one that is very overbought. However, bitcoin’s unique problem for mean reversionists is it is just beginning to climb the broader adoption curve while it’s supply continues dwindling.

And that’s why these attacks had to happen this week. Another bull wave up would have done real damage to the credibility of the central banks right at the same time that China seemingly put in the floor beneath gold prices at around $1670.

Remember, it was last year where gold and bitcoin came off the Coronapocalypse in safe haven lockstep, both rallying hard into August. Bitcoin’s fundamental supply and demand mismatch and a spate of institutional adoption announcements touched off its rise in November to break out of the three-year consolidation at the quarterly level.

Gold, still being the plaything of the central banks continued its decline to this day. Even Friday’s technical breakout is only a short-term life preserver given that the longer-term charts are bearish. Gold has a lot of work to do to regain the market’s confidence.

And that makes bitcoin’s correction all that much more dangerous all around because the two assets moving down together now will only make those skeptical of bitcoin that much more cautious and respectful of the awesome power of the central banks.

The liquidations in bitcoin that began over the weekend continue today. The usual suspects will be out saying, “See! I told you so!” And I’m looking at my portfolio saying, “Told me what, that I’m only up 350% since the start of the year versus 400%?”

Cry me a frickin’ river.

Moments like this quite possibly become inflection points in a market’s history, no doubt about it. And it’s clear that there is a coordinated effort by those with power to manipulate events to their satisfaction. It’s completely expected. If they didn’t counterattack I would actually be less bullish on cryptos because I’d now be looking for the dead rat in the cupboard because something wouldn’t smell right.

That said, China confirmed my analysis of their Friday announcement on gold by today reversing their stance on cryptocurrencies after years of opposition to it.

Industry insiders called the comments “progressive” and are watching closely for any regulatory changes made by the People’s Bank of China.

“We regard Bitcoin and stablecoin as crypto assets … These are investment alternatives,” Li Bo, deputy governor of the PBOC, said on Sunday during a panel hosted by CNBC at the Boao Forum for Asia.

“They are not currency per se. And so the main role we see for crypto assets going forward, the main role is investment alternative” he added.

This confuses some people, but it honestly shouldn’t.

I’ve made the point in the past that if you really thought China was against bitcoin then how do you explain the amount of energy consumed by the Chinese electrical grid in mining it?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1200477/bitcoin-mining-by-country/

I’m no fan of central planning but really do you think something like this happens without the CCP knowing about it because they have a Hayekian pretense to knowledge?

Or do you think, maybe, just maybe, China is more than happy to allow this to go on knowing the bind it ultimately puts the Fed, the ECB and the SNB?

Do you really think that China doesn’t understand that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can become more of a near-term threat to the U.S.’s dominance of the global financial system than anything it does today or tomorrow with the digital yuan?

Even if that argument doesn’t persuade you, the idea that China wouldn’t nurture bitcoin as a weapon to use against an increasingly hostile and sanctions-happy U.S. as a kind of monetary shock troop brigade is terminally naïve.

Moreover, do you think China’s government didn’t just give out a stern warning to the miners there not to get too many ideas? If Jack Ma can get taken down a few pegs, so can AntPool. Moments like this only confirm for me that the bitcoin hashing power will become more democratized now that there are real investments in the U.S. on the line.

Expect hashing power to migrate away from China while at the same time more attempts made to bring the bitcoin supply more under control of authorities here in the West. The beauty of crypto, of course, is that spinning up another blockchain is easy, building trust over time is important and altcoins which one may consider shitcoins today may be the saviors of the entire industry tomorrow.

Highs are made when the supply of buyers is overwhelmed by the supply of sellers. Bottoms are the reverse of this, where sellers are overwhelmed by a flood of buyers. I find it fascinating that this knock down of bitcoin hasn’t done much to dampen the enthusiasm for other high-quality store-of-value style coins. Once bitcoin retreated from its new high we saw big breakouts in coins like DASH, Monero (XMR), Decred (DCR) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

Heck, even a duds like Zcash (ZEC) and Bitcoin Gold (BTG) joined the party.

But once Turkey made its announcement and the SEC rumor hit the markets what really saw a move was the ultimate privacy coin, Pirate Chain (ARRR). It doesn’t take a 200+ IQ to figure that one out. Pirate Chain has been quietly building momentum all year and exploded in a 10x move that made even Dogecoin (DOGE) look tame. Moreover, there seems to be no slowing it down, because this isn’t a trade, it’s a defensive move.

Since ARRR doesn’t really trade on any major exchanges liquidity is non-existent and holders of it have no intention of letting go just because the central banks are coming. If the SEC is worried about money laundering with a fully transparent blockchain like bitcoin or ethereum, what will they do when the world wakes up to the complete anonymization of capital coins like ARRR and XMR are capable of delivering?

With the central banks and The Davos Crowd making their moves on the entire crypto-space it validates what I’ve been saying about the futility of their actions trying to maintain their power and control. They are putting a premium on anonymity and privacy in a world increasingly under surveillance. China’s statements and actions on bitcoin are putting a premium on wider, shallower mining and alternatives to blockchain security.

It may be time to light three lanterns in the window because the central banks are coming both by land and by sea but nothing worth having was ever gained by not fighting for it. We’ll soon find out who has the stones and the fortitude to stick it out to the end.

And if the crypto-revolution ultimately dies on the digital vine then there’s always gold right?

*  *  *

Join My Patreon if you don’t think central banks are all powerful

END
J Johnson’s commodity report

https://www.jsmineset.com/2021/04/21/the-match-is-on/

 

The Match Is On!

 

Posted April 21st, 2021 at 8:31 AM (CST) by J. Johnson & filed under General Editorial.

 

Great and Wonderful Wednesday Morning Folks,

 

      June Gold is up $5.80 with the trade at $1,784.20 with the high at $1,788.70 and the low at $1,776.60. Silver leads the percentages with the May contract at $26.07, a gain of 23 cents after hitting a high of $26.205 with the low at $25.795. The US Dollar, continues to find international support with the value pegged at 91.335, up 10.8 points inside a trading range between 91.37 and 91.10. Of course, all this happened already before 5am pst, the Comex open, the London close, and after yesterday’s events unfolded into a mob rule win.

 

      Gold under the Venezuelan Bolivar is now priced at 4,208,617,205, providing the holder a gain of 21,701,049 Bolivares with Silver priced at 61,494,591 Bolivares, a gain of 94,351. In Argentina, Gold gained 949.74 Peso’s with the trade at 165,747.85 with Silver gaining 5.12 A-Peso’s with its last buy at 2,421.22. The Turkish Lira now has Gold valued at 14,558.42 proving a gain of 145.92 Lira’s with Silver’s last buy price at 212.77 T-Lira’s, an overnight gain of 1.43.

 

      April Silver’s Delivery Demands now stand at 175 fully paid for 5,000-ounce contracts waiting for delivery with another zero in the Volume column, so far today. Yesterday’s activity had a total Volume of 1 up on the board with a $25.855 price before Comex opened, and it stayed that way all day long with the CCC at $25.835, a gain of 4 tenths of a penny which helped reduce the physical demand count by 10 contracts. Silver’s Overall Open Interest is hardly moving at all with this morning’s count at 169,699 Overnighters willing to do the dirty against real price discovery as another 281 contracts got added, or Silver would have gained even more value. Another thing is the trading Volumes have dropped off, leaving one the idea that May’s open interest has something inside it that may impose a change.

 

      April Gold’s Delivery Demands now stand at 2,969 fully paid for 100-ounce contracts still waiting for receipts and a Volume of 126 up on the board with a trading range between $1,783.10 and $1,777.70 with the last swap at $1,782.80, a gain of $5.50 so far today. Tuesday’s delivery activity happened in between $1,774.90 and $1,765.50 with the last buy at $1,776.30, a gain of $6.90 which happened after the CCC at $1,777.30, a gain of $7.70 on the day that had a total of 1,458 swaps helping to reduce the demand count by 832 contracts that may have received receipts, maybe. Gold’s Overall Open Interest lost 1,241 paper contracts since yesterday morning giving us an early morning total of 473,448 Overnighters willing to trade against what is not there, and proving once again, all the activity was inside the delivery system.

 

      May Silver’s Open Interest is still ahead of any other month’s, which is why I am still using it for the quoting price. July’s OI is 300 contracts away from leading all, which will become the new futures quote moving forward. There is only 5 trading days to go before the May Contracts become the delivery month, which still has 370,150,000 ounces worth of contracts to be removed or the price becomes their problem. We have the added bonus of not seeing any movement, in size whatsoever, in the delivery system. The total “newly added” delivery swaps in April only reached 212 contracts so far. Inside this count, a total of 95 swaps occurred up to April 14th, and on the 15th, a swap of 95 occurred with no price. Did these purchases come back via EFP’s back into the Comex because London already emptied their warehouses? Or is there something else we cannot see yet?

 

      Even April Gold’s pending delivery demands are still way the heck up there at 296,900 ounces, still waiting for receipts, and with only a few days to go. We have this idea, for a while now, that these foreign warehouses are using each other’s trading systems to hedge their physical shortages, one has to wonder how deep the paper over physicals really is? One day, we will all find out, all-at-once, when the real prices start to move in order to find real product.

 

      In the meantime, we have an important guest for this Saturday’s audio. John Adams; the Aussie Economist, who has been successfully hammering the Perth Mint and Kitco, will be with us in a special discussion. We will all be able to glean more data and as the WallStreetSilverApes continue to find every excuse in the world, to buy more and more physical Silver. It just may be, all this activity, from the ground up, and in other nations, has finally reached a pinnacle that the Comex and LBMA warehouses have to deal with.

The Match is On!

 

      Enjoy the day, gather more physicals while the prices are cheap and the exchanges still work. Have a smile on your face and a prayer for all, and as always …    

 

Stay Strong!

Jeremiah Johnson

JeremiahJohnson@cableone.net

 

 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP at 6.4973 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.4954   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 0.01 pts or 0.00%

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 513.81 PTS OR 1.76% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 591.83 POINTS OR  2.03%

3. Europe stocks  ALL MIXED /

USA dollar index  UP TO 91.08/Euro RISES TO 1.2052

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.075/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.08/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 61.77 and Brent: 67.69

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.26%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 0.76% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.39%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.02: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 0.90

3k Gold at $1783.90 silver at: 26.03   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 32/100 in roubles/dollar) 76.62

3m oil into the 61 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.08 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9180 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1022 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.26%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.572% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.266%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  DOWN  TO 8.16..

S&P Futures Reverse Overnight Losses; Netflix Plunge Weighs On Nasdaq

BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 08:03 AM

S&P futures were little changed, paring earlier declines with the Nasdaq underperforming following dismal Netflix guidance after the company reported its worst quarter in 8 years, sending the stock 8% lower.  At 7:00a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 13 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 0.50 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 27 points, or 0.20%.

Nasdaq futures edged lower on Wednesday as Netflix kicked off quarterly earnings for technology behemoths with a disappointing report which barely saw any subscriber growth in Q2, while concerns about a surge in global coronavirus cases hit demand for equities. Netflix tumbled 8.1% in premarket trading after its report showed slower production of TV shows and movies during the pandemic hurt subscriber growth in the first quarter.

“Markets remain very much caught between the rock of improving macroeconomic conditions and the treacherous waters of geopolitical risks and alarming Covid-19 case growth in some corners of the world,” according to ING Groep NV strategists including Padhraic Garvey in a note to clients.

Wall Street closed lower in the previous session as a global spike in coronavirus cases hit travel-related shares and investors had second thoughts about big U.S. banks’ apparently stellar earnings last week. Global stocks were also subdued on Wednesday due to rising concerns over spiking COVID-19 infections in Asia and their impact on oil prices.

“While the UK and the US may be moving towards re-opening, it’s not necessarily a straight line of recovery,” said Joshua Mahony, senior market analyst at IG. “What’s been happening in Brazil and India highlights the fact the virus is a massive issue.”

There are also concerns about stretched valuations, with global equities trading at all-time highs and earnings expectations surging as vaccination drives and stimulus programmes support global recovery.

Some other notable premarket movers:

  • Anthem Inc rose 2% after the health insurer raised its profit target for 2021, as strength in its pharmacy benefits management business helped it beat estimates for first-quarter earnings.
  • U.S. railroad operator CSX Corp fell 0.9% after it missed estimates for first-quarter profit, hurt by frigid polar vortex temperatures, ongoing pandemic disruptions and higher fuel costs.

European stocks rebounded, with the Eurostoxx 50 rising as much as 0.8%, just shy of halving Tuesday’s sharp sell off, but it was the opposite in Asia, where financial markets took the brunt of a risk reassessment by investors as Covid-19 cases surge in the region. India reported a record of more than 2,000 deaths on Wednesday and Japan is moving towards declaring a state of emergencyWhile investors expect markets with high vaccination rates to avoid the worst of the setback, the global reflation trade appears to have paused for now.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.4% after a blistering seven-week rally ran into a bout of profit-taking on Tuesday, when it fell 1.9%, its biggest decline in four months as positive earnings reports outweighed concerns over resurgent virus cases.  European earnings are expected to rise a record 61% in the first quarter of 2021, according to Refinitiv IBES data, placing Europe on course for a rare outperformance versus corporate America.

European food-delivery stocks declined on Wednesday after news that Uber Eats plans to expand its service to Germany in the coming weeks, ramping up competition with Just Eat Takeaway. The world’s second-largest brewer Heineken NV gained 3.9% after it reported better-than-expected beer sales, helped by increased beer sales in Africa and Asia. French luxury goods group Kering was up 1.4% after Gucci’s revenue rebounded strongly in the first quarter. Oil & gas stocks got a boost despite weaker oil prices, as Deutsche Bank started coverage of stocks including Royal Dutch Shell and France’s Total with a “buy” rating. Among decliners, Italian football club Juventus slumped 12.7% after breakaway European Super League founder and Juventus chairman Andrea Agnelli said the league can no longer go ahead after six English clubs withdrew. Dutch food delivery company Just Eat Takeaway fell 4.5% after the Financial Times reported Uber Eats was planning to launch in Germany. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • ASML shares climb as much as 5.8%, with ING saying that the semiconductor equipment maker’s results are “very strong” and that the company raised its FY21 guidance “significantly.”
  • Heineken shares rise as much as 4.8% to the highest since Feb. 2020, after reporting 1Q figures that Jefferies (buy) said was a “better-than-expected start to the year.”
  • Carrefour shares rise as much as 4.4%, the steepest gain in two months, after the grocer impressed with strong 1Q sales and a beat at its French hypermarkets, a crucial element of sentiment on the stock, while also announcing a buyback.
  • Juventus shares fall as much as 13% as Europe’s rebel Super League edges toward collapse following a public outcry, with the six English clubs involved pulling out of the project late on Tuesday.
  • Temenos shares fall as much as 5.8% after the co. reported 1Q figures, with Jefferies saying the results were “unlikely to drive any material upgrade” to consensus.

It was a mirror image of market sentiment earlier in the session, when Asian stocks tumbled as concerns over a new surge in infections around the world and the economic impact of potential lockdowns weighed on markets. Japanese shares were the worst performers for a second straight day, with the Topix sinking 2% to its lowest level in more than six weeks. Tokyo and Osaka are preparing to ask the Japanese government to declare a state of emergency as cases surge. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 1.8%, while China’s CSI 300 Index’s defied the broader selloff in the region and rose 0.3%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.5%, on course for its steepest drop since March 24, with most major national benchmarks in negative territory. All sectors were in the red, with IT and industrials leading losses. Markets in India and Vietnam were closed for local holidays. The resurgence of virus in some Asian nations, with the current epicenter of the surge in India, is causing concern of derailed economic growth, said Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, head of consumer equity research at Tellimer.

Chinese stocks closed slightly higher, bucking broad weakness across Asia, as investors are optimistic that a climate summit set to bring leaders of the world’s two biggest economies together will help ease political tensions. The benchmark CSI 300 index rose 0.3% to the highest since April 8, supported by gains in health-care and bank stocks. Energy companies were the biggest decliners, after oil slumped the most in two weeks with the resurgence in virus cases casting a cloud over global economic recovery prospects. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell as much as 2.2%, following a drop in U.S. equities overnight that marked their first back-to-back decline since late March. A-share investors are looking forward to the climate meeting on Thursday for positive signals about China-U.S. relations, while traders in Hong Kong “tend to be more cautious when placement plans in the market increase,” said Stanley Chan, an analyst with Emperor Securities. Vaccine makers such as Zhifei Biological and Walvax Biotech were among the best performers in the CSI 300 Index, while banking shares advanced after Ping An Bank reported strong earnings for the first quarter. Still, foreign investors offloaded A shares via the mainland-Hong Kong stock link for a second day, selling a net 1.1 billion yuan in the biggest outflow in nearly two weeks. Hedging demand in the broader market has been high, with the latest data showing the value of Chinese stocks being shorted climbed to an all-time high of 152 billion yuan on Tuesday.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.3% to 6,997.40, dropping to a one-week low as growing cases of Covid-19 around the world renewed concerns over the pandemic’s economic impact. Nuix was the benchmark’s worst performer, falling to an all time low after the company cut revenue guidance. IDP Education was among the best performers, climbing the most since Feb. 25. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.1% to 12,535.34

In rates, Treasuries paused a rally that sent the 10-year yield to its lowest level in more than five weeks and within reach of 1.5%. The yield curve was steeper after declining during European morning, and ahead of a $24BN 20-year bond reopening auction at 1pm, whose WI yield is ~2.165%, ~12.5bp richer than last month’s, which stopped 2bp through the WI level. Yields were higher by 1bp-2bp at long end, steepening 5s30s by ~1bp; 10-year around 1.57% is 1.3bp cheaper on the day. Gilts are weakest European debt market following a 15-year bond auction, while Italy outperforms. Treasuries were underpinned in Asia as Nikkei fell more than 2% with rising domestic Covid-19 cases spurring shutdowns.

In FX, the dollar rose for a second day, the longest streak since March and was higher against most of its Group-of-10 peers thanks to a short squeeze, though most currencies traded in narrow ranges.  The Canadian dollar led gains before a Bank of Canada policy announcement, in which it’s poised to pare back its asset purchases amid a stronger-than-expected economic recovery. The euro fell a second day, nearing the $1.20 handle; the ECB meeting on Thursday carries little risk of setting off fireworks in the currency market as overnight volatility in euro-dollar trades below 10%, which is the second-lowest reading on the day before an ECB policy decision since March 2020. The pound dipped slightly, and was on track to fall for a second session, consolidating after a winning streak and as inflation accelerated less than expected. The yen rose against many of its Group-of-10 peers as investors sought refuge in haven assets amid a renewed surge in Covid-19 cases in many regions; Asian stock indexes fell after the World Health Organization cautioned that coronavirus infections were on the rise in all regions except Europe, with India driving a surge in Asia. The Australian dollar was weighed down by a price decline of the nation’s key export iron and amid the risk-off tone in the Asian session.

In commodities, crude drifted lower with WTI dropping 1.3%, failing to breach $62.50, while Brent slipped back on a $65-handle, failing a test of $66.50. Spot gold reverses modest early strength to trade near $1,780/oz. Base metals are mixed with LME aluminum and tin outperforming.

There are no major U.S. economic data scheduled Tuesday; ahead this week are existing home sales, Markit manufacturing PMI and new home sales. Earnings releases today include Verizon and NextEra Energy.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,126.75
  • Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.4% to 435.54
  • German 10Y yield rose 5.0 bps to -0.249%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.2013
  • MXAP down 1.4% to 204.96
  • MXAPJ down 1.1% to 688.22
  • Nikkei down 2.0% to 28,508.55
  • Topix down 2.0% to 1,888.18
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.8% to 28,621.92
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,472.93
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 47,705.80
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,997.48
  • Kospi down 1.5% to 3,171.66
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $66.15/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,782.20
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 91.31

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Investors trying to predict the European Central Bank’s stimulus plans are about to run into deeper uncertainty even as the clouds around the pandemic start to lift
  • As strategists line up with sell recommendations on bonds ahead of this week’s European Central Bank meeting, there’s been a resurgence of bearish bets via the Euribor options market
  • Germany’s Greens are in a position to make history, surging past Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc in the race to replace the four-term chancellor after September’s election
  • European Union lawmakers reached a late- night deal to make the bloc’s ambitious climate goals legally binding, paving the way for a torrent of new rules and standards to overhaul the entire economy
  • Germany is nearly doubling the pace of vaccinations after an increase in supplies and the decision to let general practitioners administer doses in their regular offices. France, Italy and Spain are following a similar trajectory
  • U.K. households took on more debt and suffered a bigger hit to incomes during the pandemic than those in France and Germany, according to new research that indicates weakness in the potential for an economic recovery

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets mostly slumped as the negative mood rolled over from the US where the major indices extended on declines led by underperformance in energy and financials amid lower oil prices and yields. In addition, earnings releases did little to spur risk appetite and Netflix shares slumped around 10% after hours despite beating on top and bottom lines, as its subscriber additions were significantly below forecasts and Q2 estimates also underwhelmed. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was negative with the energy sector the worst hit following the recent retreat in oil prices and as participants digested the latest quarterly updates including from BHP which reported a decline in iron ore output and lower than expected shipments. Nikkei 225 (-2.0%) was heavily pressured by a firmer currency and with the government reportedly to declare an emergency in Tokyo, Osaka and Hyogo due to COVID-19 whereby a formal decision could be made as soon as this week. Hang Seng (-1.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (U/C) conformed to the lacklustre mood amid concerns of a regulatory crackdown after MIIT noted that China is to strengthen its inspections of internet companies and although mainland bourses eventually showed resilience, the Hong Kong benchmark languished near its lows after having gapped below the 29k level amid notable losses in the oil majors and with Anta Sports the worst hit among the blue chips after reports its controlling shareholder will offload 88mln shares. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher following the recent gains in T-notes and as the broad risk aversion spurred a flight to safety, with prices helped by the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 955bln of JGBs in mostly 1yr-3yr and 5yr-10yr maturities, while the central bank also offered to buy JPY 75bln in corporate bonds with 3yr-5yr maturities from April 26th.

Top Asian News

  • China Is Said to Mull Supporting Huarong With PBOC Funds
  • BlackRock Cuts China Tech Holdings on Policy Woes
  • Japanese Stocks Cap Worst Two-Day Slide Since June on Virus Woes
  • Toshiba Drops After Disclosing CVC Buyout Offer Has Stalled

European bourses trade higher across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%) following a mixed APAC session as earnings season starts picking up pace. State-side, US equity futures are somewhat mixed, with sideways trade seen in the ES and YM whilst the tech-laden NQ lags slightly and the cyclically-driven RTY outperforms. The underperformance in the NQ could be a function of the rising yields in European hours, but maybe more so on Netflix (-8% pre-market) post-earnings. Barclays, suggests that sentiment surrounding earnings has rarely been so bullish in recent years, but the bank acknowledges that cyclicals are logically expected to lead the bound in earnings, and expect Q1 metrics to lead to more selectivity in finding value stocks offering better risk-reward – “Consensus estimates of 30% Q1 EPS growth in the US and 53% in Europe are not out of reach given easy Y/Y comps and stronger demand, but a lot seems priced in. Lofty P/Es leave little room for upside and stretched technicals raise correction risks. Yet, provided earnings deliver, we think dips should be bought and see equities grinding higher”, the bank says. Back to Europe, the Dutch AEX (+1%) narrowly outperforms amid support from ASML (+4.7%) after reporting strong earnings, and updated revenue growth guidance, and the early completion of its share buyback programme, noting that it saw significant demand across all market segments in Q1. That being said, commentary surrounding the chip shortage in the release was sparse. Nonetheless, ASML has provided the IT sector with impetus and thus outperforms. Sectors, in general, are mostly firmer with no standout theme nor risk bias. Meanwhile, the retail sector is propped up by Kering (+1.6%) post-earnings who reported a string of strong metrics – albeit with low-base effects in play – but providing positive omens for the likes of LVMH (+2.0%), Richemont (+0.5%), whilst Hugo Boss (+6.0%) trades firmer with participants pointing to very vague and unconfirmed speculation that the Co. could be a takeover target, whilst another trader mentioned LVMH as a potential party that could be involved. Earnings-related movers this morning include the likes of Heineken (+4.0%), Carrefour (+4.0%) Roche (+1.5%), and Ericsson (-0.3%). Elsewhere, Just Eat Takeaway (-4.5%) and Delivery Hero (-0.9%) trade lower amid reports that UberEats is looking to enter the German market.

Top European News

  • Putin to Address Nation as Russia Braces for Navalny Protests
  • Heineken Beer Shipments Beat Estimates on Emerging Market Growth
  • Blackstone Sells Mega-Office to Funds Investing $1.2 Billion
  • Roche Sees Return to Sales Growth as Drugs Unit Turns Corner

In FX, the buck has bounced further from worst levels, albeit remaining soft against a few major and EM counterparts, and still largely in corrective trade rather than any real change in fundamentals. However, the technical landscape is getting more constructive as the index climbs from a higher low above 91.000 after closing over the 100 DMA and carves out a higher high at 91.388 ahead of MBA weekly mortgage applications and Usd 24 bn 20 year issuance that could keep US Treasuries on a bear-steepening trajectory, and supportive for the Greenback all else equal.

  • CHF/EUR/JPY – All conceding ground to the Dollar, with the Franc back below 0.9150, Euro holding just above 1.2000 and Yen retreating though 108.00 again following a relatively strong safe-haven rally overnight when APAC bourses suffered heavy losses in sympathy with US stocks over the preceding session. Indeed, Usd/Jpy hit lows circa 107.88 at one stage, but perhaps crucially from a chart standpoint held just above key Fib support at 107.77 (38.2% retracement), in keeping with the DXY’s rebound on Tuesday from a cloud base protecting a Fib level.
  • NZD/CAD/GBP/AUD – The Kiwi is still ‘outperforming’ or at least putting up more resistance than most in the face of the Buck revival, and slightly firmer than expected NZ inflation data could be helping to keep Nzd/Usd afloat between 0.7162-87 parameters, on top of stronger Aud/Nzd tailwinds as the cross loses further momentum below 1.0800 to probe under 1.0750. Conversely, stronger than forecast Aussie retail sales have not offered Aud/Usd much encouragement in the low 0.7700s, and the pair appears to have decoupled somewhat from Usd/Cnh-Cny that remain anchored around 6.5000. Elsewhere, the Loonie is now pivoting 1.2600 following its oil-related reversal and awaiting Canadian CPI before the BoC for fresh direction that may be bullish if the Bank does tweak guidance to flag measured QE tapering. Meanwhile, the Pound derived little if any independent impetus via UK inflation data that was somewhat mixed, as Cable manages to stem declines from 1.4000+ to roughly 100 pips and meanders either side of 0.8625 vs the Euro.
  • EM – Not much reaction to softer than anticipated SA core CPI given that the headline readings matched consensus and the Rand seems content to rotate on a 14.3000 axis eyeing Gold that in turn is fixated on US yields and the Greenback within striking distance of Usd 1800/oz, but capped by recent peaks. In contrast, the Lira is lurching towards 8.2000 and ironically, though not without president amidst a tirade from Turkish President Erdogan about the nation’s battle against interest, inflation and exchange rates.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures see another choppy European morning but are ultimately softer, with the former sub-USD 62/bbl (61.64-62.56 intraday range) at the time of writing, whilst the latter extends losses under USD 66/bbl (65.53-66.52 range). The choppiness in the crude complex in recent weeks goes to show the near-term uncertainty surrounding the supply/demand imbalance in the context of rising COVID infections during the recovery phase, and as geopolitical tensions remain heated on multiple fronts. Yesterday, we also saw reports that the US House is advancing the NOPEC bill, which essentially aims to restrict OPEC’s influence on prices via deep production-cuts, although this is unlikely to materialise ahead of the JMMC meeting next week. Note, the US has been at loggerheads with OPEC over the higher crude prices feeding to American consumers ahead of an expected rebound in demand heading into the summer months. Further adding to the bearish narrative, yesterday’s Private Inventory report printed a surprise build, albeit modest, with traders now eyeing the weekly DoE figures as the next scheduled catalyst – with the headline expected to show a draw of almost 3mln bbls. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver have largely been moving in tandem with the Dollar throughout early European hours amid a lack of fresh catalysts, with the former hitting highs just shy of USD 1,800/oz (1,776-1,788 range), ahead of its 100 DMA at USD 1,803/oz. Spot silver oscillates on either side of USD 26/oz. Turning to base metals, copper prices in Shanghai fell almost 1% amid COVID woes surrounding India and Japan as the countries enter targeted lockdowns. Meanwhile, Chinese steel futures rose due to concerns over stricter capacity and output controls from regulators in the coming months.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: April MBA Mortgage Applications +8.6%, prior -3.7%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This morning we are launching our latest monthly survey. We revisit a few Working from Home (WFH) questions given that many countries will be providing increased access to the office over the next few months. We’re very interested to hear what you think the permanent arrangements will be. We also ask about whether you have or would consider moving further away from your normal office given WFH options. We also ask about your thoughts on vaccine passports and on potential implications of the upcoming German election. In terms of markets we ask what you think are the biggest risk to the current relative calm (yesterday accepted). In addition we ask all the normal directional questions. The survey will stay open until Friday morning London time. All help very welcome. The link is here.

Well I’m glad I had a post jab lie in yesterday as I had 2-3 hours of night sweats and was unable to sleep. Yesterday I was groggy and my Apple Watch told me my resting heart rate was 17bpm higher than normal. I spend my life obsessed with the calories and heart rate function on the Apple Watch so yesterday was a big outlier on both!! I’m feeling a bit better this morning so hopefully I’ll be more alert today with more Apple calories burnt off! In fact the side effects are lingering longer than the new European Super League.

Yesterday saw some rare market side effects to the pandemic as a fairly out of the blue selloff in global equities was the main story. This came in the shadow of a significant rise in cases across multiple regions over recent weeks, and as I covered in my chart of the day yesterday (link here), the global rate of increase now stands at its highest level since the start of the pandemic, with recorded cases up by more than 5m a week now. India has been the biggest contributor to that with an exponential rise in cases lately, but the increase has been much more widespread with others including Turkey, Argentina and Japan similarly grappling with a renewed wave. For markets, the risk is that this latest increase in cases starts to undermine the narrative that the global economy is on an inexorable path back to normality as the world gets vaccinated, with multiple economies facing the threat of fresh restrictions on mobility. Furthermore, a higher level of cases circulating around the world raises the odds of a new and potentially more dangerous variant emerging, with the nightmare scenario being that it proves more resistant to our existing portfolio of vaccines. Anyway that’s not here yet but the continued rise in global cases is increasing the risks. By the way we’ve revamped the columns on our daily vaccine table (below and in the link) to make it a bit easier to understand. All feedback welcome.

Looking at the moves in more depth, Europe experienced the brunt of the selloff and the STOXX 600 (-1.90%) suffered its worst day so far this year, with many of the continent’s other indices including the DAX (-1.55%) and the CAC 40 (-2.09%) seeing sizeable declines as well. The fact that Covid concerns were at play was evident in the sectoral breakdowns, with the STOXX 600 Travel & Leisure index seeing a -3.69% decline, whilst other cyclical industries including banks (-3.67%), energy (-3.07%) and basic resources (-3.02%) led the STOXX 600’s move lower. Over in the US, the major indices likewise fell back, including the S&P 500 (-0.68%), the NASDAQ (-0.92%) and the Dow Jones (-0.75%), while the small-cap Russell 2000 fell a larger -1.96%. 63% of S&P 500 members saw their shares fall back with a similar mix of cyclicals leading the declines as US banks (-2.79%), energy (-2.66%) and consumer durables (-2.82%) being among the largest laggards. Another notable sign of stress could be seen in the volatility indices, with the VIX index of volatility up another +1.4pts in its biggest daily increase since late March. With the reflation trade seeing a set back today’s U.K. inflation data just after we hit inboxes will be interesting.

In earnings news that will get the attention of inflation-watchers, Procter & Gamble (+0.83%) said on their earnings call before the US open that the company would be boosting the prices of some consumer products due to higher commodity costs. Elsewhere in earnings, Johnson & Johnson (+2.33%) reported stronger sales than expected and increased guidance even in the face of its vaccine pauses. After the close, Netflix fell back as much as -12.7% in after-hours trading as the company announced it added only 3.98mn subscribers last quarter, missing estimates of 6.29mn and its forecasted 6.0mn.

Asian markets have taken Wall Street’s lead this morning with the Nikkei (-1.90%), Hang Seng (-1.63%) and Kospi (-1.59%) all down. Chinese bourses are an exception though with both the CSI (+0.32%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.15%) up. Futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.15% while those on the Nasdaq are down a larger -0.39% with weak earnings from Netflix not helping. Nonetheless, European futures are pointing towards a slightly more positive open with those on the Stoxx 50 (+0.18%) and the Dax (+0.19%) both up.

The risk-off moves yesterday benefited sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr US Treasuries falling -4.6bps to 1.559%, its lowest closing level in over a month. The same pattern was seen in Europe too, where yields on 10yr bunds (-2.7bps), gilts (-2.4bps) and BTPs (-1.2bps) all moved lower as investors became somewhat less confident on the economic recovery. Over in FX, the Euro remained above $1.20 while the dollar index gained (+0.19%) for the first time in 7 sessions. Bitcoin (+1.05%) broke a mini-slump of its own, rising for the first time since last Thursday after substantial losses over the weekend.

In Germany, the race to be the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate was finally resolved in favour of CDU leader Armin Laschet, with the CSU’s Markus Soeder conceding yesterday after Laschet’s victory in a vote of the CDU’s leadership. Laschet is a relative moderate within the CDU, but polls indicated that he was less popular than Soeder, who many had hoped would increase the conservatives’ electoral appeal in September’s elections. Nevertheless, recent polling averages show the CDU/CSU are still the favourite to remain in power, meaning that Laschet has a decent shot at becoming Chancellor after Angela Merkel stands down, even if they are currently on track to score a lower vote share than in 2017. However, yesterday a poll by Forsa showed 28% of respondents support the Greens, 21% the CDU/CSU, and 13% the center-left SPD. It should be noted that the SPD party got a similar bounce before the 2017 election when Martin Schulz was selected as their chancellor candidate. The party closed a double digit gap to poll neck-and-neck with the CDU/CSU, but this only lasted a couple of months, and then the polling reverted. It is impossible to know whether this will repeat, but a bounce for a new leader being confirmed is not uncommon worldwide. An interesting few months ahead. A Green Chancellor would certainly be a huge long-term structural change story for Germany and Europe.

As mentioned at the top, the pandemic has remained in focus for investors given the deteriorating global picture. Looking at some of yesterday’s developments, Indian PM Modi said that lockdowns should only be used by states as a last resort, and they would not be needed if citizens took precautions. Nevertheless, increasing numbers of areas have moved to tougher restrictions recently in light of the rise in cases. Over in Japan, Sankei has reported that the Japanese government will declare a state of emergency in the Tokyo, Osaka and Hyogo regions. The country has seen its number of new cases quadruple since the low in late February/early March, with new cases now running at their most rapid since January. On the more positive side, the Nikkei has reported overnight that Japan is to receive an additional 50 million doses of Pfizer vaccine by the end of September. Elsewhere, the Netherlands are planning to ease restrictions starting next week with the nighttime curfew ending along with limits on the number of patrons allowed at shops and restaurants.

Finally on the vaccine front, the European Medicines Agency’s safety committee said that there was a possible link between the J&J vaccine and unusual blood clots, but that the overall benefits outweighed the risk of side effects. This was followed by the news that shipments will be restarted to the EU at once. We haven’t yet heard from the US authorities on their own review, but Bloomberg have reported that it should follow by the end of the week. Dr Fauci in recent days has said that the country could allow use of the shot with some form of restriction or warning, similar to what the EMA announced yesterday.

There wasn’t a great deal of data out yesterday, though the UK unemployment rate came in at 4.9% in the three months to February (vs. 5.0% expected). This was better than expected, but the real-time PAYE data from HMRC showed a decline in payrolled employees of -56k in March relative to the February number.

To the day ahead now, and the data highlights include the UK and Canadian CPI readings for March. On top of that, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Ramsden, with the Bank of Canada also deciding on rates. Finally, earnings releases today include Verizon and NextEra Energy.

 

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.01 PTS OR 0.00%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 513.81 PTS OR 1.76%     /The Nikkei closed DOWN 591.83 POINTS OR 2.03%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.32%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4973 /Oil DOWN TO 61.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and 65.69 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4973. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4954   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN

 

end

3 C CHINA

CHINA

China now considering a Huarong bailout with a $15 billion backstop

(zerohedge)

China Considering Huarong Bailout With $15 Billion PBOC Backstop

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 01:10 PM

To everyone who said that it was only a matter of time before Beijing blinked in its latest encounter with the harsh reality of market logic… congrats, you were right.

One day after the latest report – this time from Reorg Research – that China was considering options for bad-debt asset manager Huarong that included restructuring the debt of its offshore unit and which again sent Huarong dollar bonds tumbling, Beijing has had enough of the daily rollercoaster and leaked through Bloomberg – which quoted the usual “people familiar with the matter” – that the central bank is considering a plan to “assume more than 100 billion yuan ($15 billion) of assets from China Huarong Asset Management, helping the state-owned company clean up its balance sheet and refocus on its core business of managing distressed debt.”

As Bloomberg’s PBOC source details, under the proposal that’s still being finalized and could change, a PBOC unit would assume assets from some of Huarong’s unprofitable operations. At the same time, China Huarong International Holdings Ltd., the offshore unit that issues or guarantees most of Huarong’s dollar bonds, is in the process of transferring distressed assets worth tens of billions of yuan into a separate offshore entity called China Huarong Overseas Investment Holding Co., a move which is also aimed at improving the financial health of China Huarong International, the group’s main link to overseas funding.

Naturally, if the PBOC proposal is effectuated, it would not only end the turmoil surrounding Huarong’s future – and its dollar bonds – but mark a significant show of government support for a company that has faced intense investor scrutiny after missing a deadline to report earnings at the end of March.

It would also ease much of the pressure that China’s dollar bond sector has found itself in in recent days as speculation about a looming debt restructuring sent Huarong’s dollar bonds to record lows last week, stoking market contagion and prompting some investors, as Bloomberg put it, “to reconsider assumptions about implicit government guarantees that have underpinned China’s credit market for decades.”

Understandably, Huarong’s bonds have swung wildly in recent days amid conflicting signals about the company’s fate. The company’s 4.5% perpetual bond gained 6.4 cents on the dollar to 79.8 cents on Wednesday, while its 3.75% dollar bond due in 2022 climbed 5 cents to 87.7 cents.

“The news suggests that the central government is examining options to provide bail-out solutions to Huarong,” said Dan Wang, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence in Hong Kong. “The potential involvement of the PBOC, which is experienced in handling distressed financial institutions, also gives the market more hope that the Huarong saga will be dealt with in an orderly way that is less likely to incur losses for offshore bondholders.”

In retrospect, the bailout was inevitable: with nearly 1.6 trillion yuan of liabilities including $22 billion in dollar bonds, and a vast web of connections with other financial institutions, Huarong has long been among China’s most systemically important companies outside the nation’s state-owned banks. It’s also majority-owned by China’s finance ministry, making it a closely watched barometer of the government’s willingness to backstop debt of troubled state-owned enterprises. Which is why the mere speculation that Beijing would let it default was enough to send shockwaves across China’s market.

Huarong and China’s three other main bad-debt managers have nearly $50 billion in outstanding dollar bonds, or about 8% of China’s overseas investment-grade credit market, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Huarong is the third largest Chinese financial issuer in international markets, according to S&P.

As Bloomberg further details, worries about the company’s fate have been most acute among offshore bondholders, in part because most of Huarong’s dollar debt contains a form of credit protection called a keepwell agreement that has yet to be fully tested in court. It’s unclear whether Huarong would be compelled to make good on more than $20 billion in dollar bonds if its offshore units — especially China Huarong International — were unable to repay.

The imminent PBOC bailout seeks to put an end to a saga that has enthralled China watchers since 2018, when Huarong’s then-chairman Lai Xiaomin was charged and then sentenced to death for bribery in one of the country’s biggest-ever financial scandals. Under Lai, who was executed earlier this year, Huarong moved far beyond its original mandate of helping banks dispose of bad debt. The company raised billions of dollars from offshore bondholders and expanded into everything from trust companies to securities trading and illiquid investments.

Despite Huarong’s history of mismanagement, some market observers have said the costs of allowing the company to suffer a major default probably outweigh the benefits.

“We see little for the government to gain in letting such a major crisis happen in an effort to eliminate moral hazard in SOEs,” Citigroup Inc. analysts including Eric Ollom wrote in a recent research report. “A financial crisis would likely result in a return to substantial monetary stimulus to counter any financial instability. The more likely policy outcome seems to be to remind investors of these risks but keep the fallout well contained.”

And just like that China blinked… again… confirming that for all its bluster and rhetoric about deleveraging and containing the world’s fastest growing debt bubble, Beijing will never have the balls to actually go through with such a plan.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY/CORONAVIRUS//VACCINE UPDATE

Family Of Italian Woman Whose Death Linked To AstraZeneca Jab Launches Legal Action

BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 02:45 AM

While American lawmakers have taken steps to shield US pharma companies from any legal blowback caused by COVID vaccines, drugmakers in Europe haven’t been so lucky. And after widespread skepticism of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, what was supposed to be the workhorse of the global immunization rollout before reports of rare and deadly blood clots inspired regulators around the comment to either halt the jab, or impose limits on its use.

And now, all these issues will be dredged up again as AstraZeneca is hit by lawsuits filed by the families of those who died from rare blood clots potentially linked to the vaccine. In what appears to be a first, Sky News reported Monday that the family of an Italian woman who died from a case of vaccine-linked clots are suing to officially establish whether the jab was at fault in her death.

Augusta Turiaco

The case involves 55-year-old Augusta Turiaco from Messina, Sicily, who received her COVID jab on March 11, but started experiencing severe symptoms a few days later.

Despite feeling unwell afterwards, Turiaco returned to work, posting two days later to reassure worried friends saying: “Andra tutto bene” – or “everything will be alright” in Italian.

She fell into a coma on March 28 March and died on March 30 March, 19 days after having the AstraZeneca injection. Her conditions also found in others who died after having the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.

Here’s more from Sky News:

Her brother Nunzio Turiaco told Sky News: “For us it was a bolt from the blue that such a clinical picture occurred.

“My sister was in excellent health, she did not take drugs because she did not have diseases such as hypertension or diabetes.”

Medical records seen by Sky News showed blood clots had formed in Ms Turiaco’s body, including in her brain.

Her platelet levels had fallen.

According to Sky, the family’s suit is one of several legal actions in Europe directed at AstraZeneca over the clotting issue.

The legal proceedings launched by the family are just one of a number of cases across Europe being mounted against AstraZeneca.

The family’s lawyer, Daniela Agnello, told Sky News: “The excellent state of health of Ms Turiaco, the absence of previous pathologies, the very short period of time between the administration of the vaccine, the appearance of the first illnesses and the very serious clinical picture and then death.

Messy clinical trial data, manufacturing issues and – of course – the rare blood clots that have resulted in more than a dozen deaths have all damaged the AstraZeneca jab’s reputation, experts say.

Despite this, both the European Medicines Agency and the World Health Organization consistently stressed that the vaccine’s benefits far outweigh the risk of any side effects and advised against any restrictions to its use. Still, national health authorities have moved ahead with their own risk and benefit assessments, which, remarkably, have drawn dissimilar conclusions – ranging from limiting the vaccine’s use in different age groups to suspending its usage and even ditching it entirely.

Whether the vaccine will ever be approved for use in the US remains unclear; although AstraZeneca has said it has applied for review by regulators in the US, reports cited uneasiness with the vaccine’s safety record, which include a halt to a Phase 3 trial in the US for a month last fall.

END

 
UK/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/LOCKDOWNS
(Watson/SummitNews)

UK Refuses To Accelerate Re-Opening Despite COVID Deaths Dropping Below Road Accident Fatalities

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Despite new figures showing the daily number of COVID-19 deaths in the UK dropping below those from road accidents, the government is still refusing to accelerate the lifting of lockdown restrictions.

The average number of daily deaths now stands at 25 a day with COVID cases dropping 94 per cent from the peak.

On Monday, the UK recorded just four total deaths.

“By comparison, the UK records an average of around five deaths from road accidents daily,” reports the Telegraph.

The government has continually insisted it will prioritize “data not dates” in deciding when the measures should be relaxed, although that argument seems to immediately dissipate when the data favors re-opening quicker.

“We’ve been told regularly, that we are following the data, not the dates, but sadly, it seems to be the other way around,” said Conservative MP Pauline Latham.

“Derbyshire there are huge swathes of villages and towns, that have no Covid whatsoever, and that’s repeated over all sorts of areas of the country.”

“We do need to start getting businesses back to normal. We need to get hospitality businesses fully functioning, and using their indoor spaces,” she added.

Last week, Prime Minister Boris Johnson claimed that lockdown restrictions and not vaccine rates were to thank for the country’s plummeting COVID cases, despite data showing cases were already falling before each successive lockdown.

Many took this as a sign that Johnson will be pressured into placing the country on lockdown yet again in the Autumn if there is another wave of the virus.

The government’s timetable for re-opening promises an end to all restrictions and social distancing measures on June 21, although events are already planned after this date that will require limited attendance, social distancing and masks.

Many fear that the restrictions will never truly be lifted given that the precedent has now been set that the state can place the entire population under de facto house arrest at the drop of a hat.

END

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

Zelensky invites Putin to meet 

(zerohedge)

Ukraine’s Zelensky Invites Putin To Meet In War-Torn East: “Million Lives At Stake”

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 01:00 AM

Following on the heels of last week’s Joe Biden invitation to Vladimir Putin for a bilateral summit proposed for the summer to tackle a range of still simmering contentious issues, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has issued a surprised invitation late Tuesday for Putin to meet him in the war-torn east of Ukraine

In making the announcement Zelensky told Putin that such a direct high states meeting where the two leaders can talk de-escalation is essential as there are a “million lives at stake” in any potential outbreak of major conflict, according to AFP:

Zelensky told the Russian leader that he was ready “to invite you to meet anywhere in the Ukrainian Donbass where the war is going on”, adding that “million of lives at stake” in the conflict between government forces and pro-Kremlin separatists in the east of the country.

Days ago Zelensky traveled to an area near Mariupol in Donetsk where he “walked the front line with the troops” amid renewed fighting with Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Donbass region.

Zelensky’s direct invitation to Putin to meet over the crisis came the same day Russia’s Defense Ministry justified its troop build-up in the South, particularly in Crimea and near the border with Ukraine, by calling it a necessary “deterrent” to NATO’s “destabilization” of the region. 

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that “Nato’s attempts to destabilize situations in the Middle East and Transcaucasian region force Russia to take symmetric measures of strategic deterrence,” according to an Interfax citation by Bloomberg

Following Biden’s proposal to meet face-to-face with Putin we and others noted that it appeared Ukraine’s leadership had been effectively sidelined by the two rival superpowers. As one FT piece had underscored, Putin’s troop build-up has succeeded in pressuring the Biden administration for a coveted summit to decide the future of Ukraine. 

“The summit format will also please the Kremlin by effectively cutting Kyiv out of any negotiations, and allow Putin to project the image of two global superpowers deciding the future fate of the conflict,” FT observed.

Zelensky’s Tuesday appeal to Putin appears an attempt to assert that no major agreements or decisions can be reached without direct negotiations involving Ukraine’s leader. 

END

Ukraine’s Zelensky Invites Putin To Meet In War-Torn East: “Million Lives At Stake” | ZeroHedge

Email from Robert H to me on the above topic

 
 
 
 
 
 
“The man is joke or better put, a comic put on a political stage. He has graduated from TV.
He is not relevant to anything. You can read Russian opinion here: https://tass.com/politics/1280327
The reality is quite simple. Sullivan has gone back to Washington and the Russian ambassador has not returned to the US. There is no diplomatic dialogue in effect under Vienna conventions at this time. What the Ukrainian comic does or thinks is not relevant as this is stand off between the Biden crowd and Russia with NATO and the Ukraine as pawns in a game of war. And Putin will not meet with him.
Sadly, the rest of us as bystanders to Neocon madness watch the escalations and left to wonder how insane are they? The realization of others in light of madness tells us that these actions toward war for whatever reasons us plebs are denied knowing, are causing rift lines that will not be repairable. Germany has already come out and said Nord Stream 2 is a go regardless of what America or NATO wants and Germany will not sacrifice itself for Biden and his cronies. This effectively throws the Ukraine under the bus because once the pipe is connected Germany needs not rely upon the Ukraine for transit of gas giving independence. There are real ramifications from this that will affect the rest of Europe for a long time. As the pipes in the Ukraine are in serious need of repair and upkeep which they have neglected for a long time. And should the comic find courage he may well turn on Biden and disclose the real role the Ukraine played in laundering money back to the US from Iran that was sent there by Obama and his ilk. But then he will need protection that may not be easy to find. He is caught between between rocks with a rising tide and no where to go.
Given this, does anyone really imagine Germany will fight Russia or give anything but lip service to NATO? I suggest to you that should war break out what will come forth will shock Europe to its’ core and smash the reset crowd into the anvils of history never to be seen with an account by politicians and other elites for their part in bring war to the  people of Europe. The French when they rebelled found guillotines most useful; the same fate may well await those parties propagating war with Russia now. And American influence in Europe will wane as a result and this will not  be changed given the moves being made. The  unknown question is how many millions will die and what will be lost in the pursuit of war, should common sense not be found.”

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraines-zelensky-invites-putin-meet-war-torn-east-million-lives-are-stake

RUSSIA

Putin’s tough State of the nation address

(zerohedge)

Putin’s Key State-Of-The-Nation Address: “Swift & Tough” Response Coming For Those Crossing ‘Red Line’

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 08:40 AM

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday gave his 17th annual state-of-the-nation address to a joint session of the Russian parliament in Moscow, which is arguably his most important given the number of different crises the country faces both at home and abroad. 

Not only does a ‘new Ukraine conflict’ loom amid mounting international pressure for Russia to reduce its forces in Crimea and near the border with eastern Ukraine, but hunger-striking Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny’s supporters are planning widespread protests Wednesday. Putin’s address further comes days after Biden’s sanctions rollout targeting the Kremlin as well as select Russian companies and government entities last Thursday. Moscow is further trying to get the coronavirus pandemic under control, as it also faces geopolitical roadblocks in efforts to export its Sputnik V vaccine more broadly, and a continued weakening ruble and economy at home. 

Putin introduced first that he would focus domestic issues, but would leave “just a few words about security issues.” While he didn’t unveil any major moves in relation to he Ukraine or Belarus situations in his speech, he did have some interesting things to say about attempts to “organize a coup in Belarus” – which is something “the West is silent on…”.

The New York Times summarized of this moment of Putin’s annual address to the nation:

“Now in his third decade in power, Mr. Putin, 68, appears more convinced than ever of his special, historic role as the father of a reborn Russian nation, fighting at home and abroad against a craven, hypocritical, morally decaying West.

Pool photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko, via NY Times

Putin said related to Russia’s deteriorating relations with the West, especially the United States, “If someone uses an arrogant and selfish tone, Russia will always find a way to defend its position.”

He also sarcastically and somewhat humorously quipped, “This is turning into some kind of sport — who can say something negative about Russia the loudest.”

Below are some further key quotes from the speech on Foreign Policy

“We behave in a restrained, modest manner. Oftentimes we do not respond to outright rudeness; we want to have good relations. We are not looking to burn any bridges.”

I hope no one will think of crossing so-called ‘red lines’ against Russia, which we ourselves will define in each separate case. Russia’s response will be symmetrical, fast and tough. The organizers of any provocations threatening our core security interests will regret their actions more than they’ve regretted anything in a long time.”

“But now this practice is degenerating into something more dangerous — for example, an attempt to organize a coup in Belarus and an attempt to assassinate this country’s president…. The West is silent on this matter.”

“You can have any position on Lukashenko’s policies, but staging a government coup and planning the assassination of a head of state is too much.”

And on Biden’s recent sanctions

“It seems that everyone is already accustomed to the practice of imposing illegal, politically motivated sanctions, attempts to impose their will on others by force.”

On nuclear weapons and strategic deterrencehe said

“Russia once again urges its partners to discuss issues related to strategic weapons, possibly to create an environment of conflict-free coexistence.”

“Advanced weaponry in Russia’s nuclear triad that comprises strategic aircraft, intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear-powered missile-carrying submarines will top 88% this year.”

“The share of advanced weapons and hardware in the troops will make up almost 76% by 2024. This is a very good figure. In the nuclear triad, it will exceed 88% already this year.”

The pandemic and economy, amid a backdrop of the ruble continuing to weaken against the dollar…

“It was impossible to avoid budget cuts [last year] altogether. To support the creation of new jobs, the state will stimulate business. I’m instructing the government to submit additional measures to support small and medium-sized businesses, including in the tax area, within a month.”

“The pandemic has exacerbated problems of social inequality and poverty around the world. We are faced with rising prices. It is impossible to rely only on targeted, directive measures. This leads to empty shelves, as was the case in the late 1980s. Now, even at the peak of the epidemic, we did not allow this. With the help of market mechanisms, it is necessary to ensure price containment.”

“The main thing is to ensure the growth of citizens’ real incomes.”

“Russia must be ready to develop test systems and vaccines within four days in case of a new dangerous infection.”

“Along with a naturally great anxiety, I personally had a firm conviction that we would overcome all trials [of the pandemic]. Having rallied together, we were able to work ahead of the curve. The number of beds in hospitals has increased more than fivefold… For the enormous work of people in all regions, I want to thank you from all my heart.”

“The three coronavirus vaccines developed in Russia are a direct embodiment of our country’s growing scientific and technological potential.”

“I’m appealing to all citizens of Russia: Get vaccinated. This will allow the formation of herd immunity by the fall.

Reversing Russia’s demographic decline

“The demographic crisis of the 1940s and 1990s is hitting us now. The preservation of the Russian people is our highest national priority.”

“Russia will always defend and defend traditional values that have been forgotten in a number of countries.”

“In 2030, the average life expectancy should be 78 years. We will not change our strategic goals in this area. This is a daunting task, especially since the coronavirus has not yet been completely defeated. We see how dramatically the situation is developing in other countries. We need to keep the line on all frontiers of the fight against coronavirus.”

“Our goal is to reach a steady growth of the Russian population.”

On Russia’s traditional spiritual and moral values as a unifying force for the nation

He noted that throughout history, the people of Russia had triumphed over their trials and tribulations thanks to their unity.

“And today, family, friendship, mutual assistance, and compassion have come to the fore for us. Spiritual and moral values, which some countries are forgetting about, have, on the contrary, made us stronger, and we will always uphold and protect these values,” Putin pledged.

Putin added that the service of representatives of traditional religions had become “the spiritual backbone of society, as it always was in difficult times.” That said, the head of state addressed the clergy present in the hall, “I would like to take a deep bow before you all. Thank you very much.”

And one interesting note from the speech in US-funded media outlet Radio Free Europe

One new development was Putin’s revelation that he is a fan of the “great writer” Rudyard Kipling.

Putin dropped the English novelist’s name while alleging that many countries were making a sport of ganging up on Russia, with “all kinds of small Tabaquis running around Shere Khan…howling to gain the favor of their ruler.”

The assumption is that Putin meant that the tiger king Shere Khan was the United States and the scrap-eating jackals surrounding him were U.S. allies, but he did not give any hint as to which Jungle Book character Russia might be.

Nevertheless, pro-Kremlin blogger Maksim Kononenko described the comment on Telegram as “powerful,” while alleging that Kipling was an “imperialist and a Nazist.” Other commenters on the thread suggested, however, that Putin’s “joke about Kipling being a good writer did not go over well.”

* * *

Meanwhile, the European Union seen as a bunch of hyenas…

END

Worldwide Chaos Just A Step Away In Eastern Ukraine

Email from Robert H to me
 
 
 
“Drums of war beat and soldiers prepare whilst the public sleeps oblivious of the danger that looms. It is like watching a movie unfold on the big screen. The difference being people will really die and life will be changed. 
As I keep writing, China and Russia will not stand apart in a war with America. Many years of neglect and squandered capital and time has left America very vulnerable. Some people write about the Chinese coveting America and its’ landmass. I think the opposite. I imagine that both China and Russia will not hesitate to destroy America so that never rises as a threat to challenge their respective hegemony. After all without America China can take South America and Africa at will, while Russia could care less, having more than enough land for its’ people. 

Ask yourself what does this mean as tensions increase in Europe: 

China has moved a portion of its nuclear force to a ‘Launch on Warning’ posture.

The People’s Liberation Army has now moved a limited number of their nuclear forces to ‘high alert duty’

— Admiral Charles Richard, the head of U.S. Strategic Command

https://southfront.org/worldwide-chaos-just-a-step-away-in-eastern-ukraine/

 
So if war does break out, NATO armchair warriors will relish a chance to fight Russians sacrificing Ukrainians and Poles in millions. But will the US military be prepared for a no holds barred nuclear barrage from China and Russia on American soil? I suggest to you this will not occur because the role of the  US military is to protect the constitution and the American people. And when push comes to shove, they will not engage in a war orchestrated by a civil authority with questionable status. As ironic as this made be it perhaps is the best road to a nuclear standoff that could provide a more engaged world. Sadly, Europe seems like it will pay a dear price for folly. And even there it is becoming clear Germany is saying, not me. “
Cheers

 

Robert
 
end
 
A good summary of the Russia Ukraine conflict
(Michael Every et al/Rabobank)
 

Russia-Ukraine Tension: The Current Stand Off And Potential Impact

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 02:10 PM

By Michael Every, Ryan Fitzmaurice, and Dennis Voznesenski of Rabobank (pdf link)

Attention: Russia-Ukraine Tension: The current stand off and its potential impact

Summary

  • The long-standing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has flared up again, with huge Russian military deployments at the border. Russia has also closed the Kerch Strait into the Sea of Azov until October to foreign military and foreign-state vessels.

  • The cost and logistics of massing this force means Russia must make an imminent choice between sabre-rattling to achieve a political target or a genuine military offensive

  • Russian President Putin’s speech to the Russian general assembly, and hence the nation, on Wednesday 21 April could consequently be one of extreme gravity

  • The sabre-rattling scenario would see Russia underline Ukrainian membership of NATO is a non-starter and that Ukrainian territories annexed to it will remain Russian

  • The war scenario ranges from limited Russian strikes to Russia annexing eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper river and the Black Sea coast to Transnistria

  • Importantly, the US is unlikely to fight Russia, while the EU has no ability to. However, both may arm Ukraine to varying degrees

  • The US has already imposed fresh sanctions on Russia and any military move would see these escalated. However, so far they have had no impact on Moscow, and the most painful sanctions mean pain for the West too, and even risk fragmenting the global financial system

  • The impact on energy markets could be profound, depending on if there is fighting, the ultimate settlement, and in particular what happens to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline

  • The impact on commodity markets would also be significant given Ukraine and Russia’s role in the global agri production. Ironically, this underlines the extent to which global food producers have the realpolitik upper hand at present

  • Overall, this crisis has potentially huge implications for the ‘liberal world order’ and US-China tensions in particular, where even a benign scenario has long-run tail risks

2014 redux – or worse?

2021 has seen a rapid build-up of tensions between Ukraine and Russia, the latest episode in a conflict going back to 2014, and which has already seen Russia annex the Crimea region from Ukraine.

Both sides blame the other for this escalation, and the need for distraction by President Putin is obvious given anti-regime protests in 2021: but what is clear is that Russia has amassed a huge force on the Ukrainian border of over 100,000 men, a flotilla of amphibious ships, tanks, artillery, armoured personnel carriers, and hundreds of aircraft. This is now the largest mobilisation of the Russian military in the region since the Cold War, and perhaps since World War Two.

There are also reports that Russian allies Belorussia and Transnistria are seeing mobilization of forces, while Belorussian president Lukashenko –also subject to recent anti-regime protests– has claimed an assassination plot against him, heightening tensions further.
The US has already placed more sanctions on Russia (covered ahead), and both it and the EU have pledged support for Ukraine – albeit not military. President Biden has also called for de-escalation and requested a US-Russian summit in a third country, omitting Ukraine. This is already a Russian victory: but Moscow has not yet agreed.

In short, war is by no means certain, and there would be no element of surprise. Yet the logistics for an invasion appear in place. President Putin’s speech to the nation on April 21 could prove to be an historic one.

What next: “benign” scenario

Assuming President Putin is rational and looking at the risk-return of a potential conflict with Ukraine, the safe assumption may be that he would prefer not to go to war.

Wars are expensive: and while they can provide a political fillip, as they did to his popularity in 2014, this only happens if Russia wins easily. Russia clearly outmatches Ukraine militarily on all fronts, most especially in terms of critical air superiority, but Ukraine of today is still far better armed and prepared than it was back in 2014, and hence the potential risks of a protracted and/or painful conflict should be clear. On this basis we assume that President Putin is primarily interested in achieving a few political goals:

  1. Testing the new US administration, which was always to be expected – and notably so far there has been no military response from either the US or the EU;

  2. Making clear to the US and EU that Russia’s sphere of influence precludes Ukraine’s entry into NATO; and, potentially

  3. An insistence that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline be completed, which Germany already wishes to, but which the US opposes – a pre-existing wedge Russia may try to drive between the two

On this basis, we could expect a de-escalation from President Putin’s address on Wednesday; agreement to a US-Russia summit, providing a global PR victory; a roll-back of Russian forces; and a de facto hiatus in Ukrainian and NATO entry. Even if existing US sanctions were not rolled back, this so far means little pain for Moscow.

In this case, however, there would still be important geopolitical and geostrategic implications. Above all, the US would have demonstrated that even despite: a planned troop drawdown from Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia; returning to the Iran nuclear deal regardless of Tehran’s current and previous breaches of its commitments; and retaining troops in Germany, the US appears to have no mind for a fight against Russia – while the EU has no mind and no arms to do so.

The signal sent to what the US dubs “revisionist powers” is the opposite of the wisdom of Vegetius: si vis bellum, para pacem. The long-term consequences could be terrible.

There is also the possibility that Wednesday could see President Putin absorb the disputed rebel portions of Ukraine in Donbas into Russia – and perhaps even a deeper political union with Belarus at the same time. The former would be seen as unacceptable by the West, and would arguably lead to a push for further sanctions – but presumably not military action.

What next: “war” scenario

But what if it is war? Perhaps not much if this means a series of small skirmishes. However, it seems illogical to move a large army into place if the only intention is to seize a few kilometres of land – particularly given Russia will know that even this strategically negligible action would carry the risk of large economic and geopolitical consequences, such as accelerating Ukraine’s entry into NATO.

Indeed, military thinkers posit that were Russia to commit to the military option, effectively burning its bridges with the West, it would need to attain a significant prize for doing so. Geostrategically, Russian nationalists and some military strategists suggest this could include annexing eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper River; and all of the Black Sea coast through to Transnistria – in short the Novorossiya (New Russia) plan below.

Figure 1: The Russian-nationalist maximalist position

 

NB Crimea in white is shown as already Russian; areas of partial Russian control are shown in dark green; areas of aspirational control are shown in light green. Source: Wikipedia

Such an invasion would bifurcate Ukraine and boost Russia’s strategic depth. Russia would have a ‘natural border’ at the Dnieper while Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, would be vulnerable; Russia could take control of the Motor Sich plant in Zaporizhzhia, which produces military engines for Russia’s military helicopters, yet which will no longer sell to it. Russia would take command of the Black Sea, land-locking Ukraine. Indeed, a rump Ukraine in NATO would be an expensive proposition for the West to defend, being effectively a finger of land surrounded by Russia and allies on three sides. This would unilaterally redraw the map of Europe by force, involve mass population transfers – and would have enormous geopolitical and market implications.

The EU would have to make painful choices. It could walk away from Nord Stream 2 and acquire more military muscle, or plead with the US for support: in short, a new Iron Curtain. Or it could acquiesce to Russian influence on its borders – and within its economy if it refuses to abandon Nord Stream 2.

The US would have to decide what steps it could take next following on from the sanctions that are already in place and given its reluctance to fight.

Sanctions

On March 2, the US imposed sanctions on seven Russian officials over the poisoning of opposition leader Navalny. It also expanded existing sanctions imposed in 2018 to include a policy of denial for exports of defence goods.

The US imposed further sanctions on April 15 in response to the SolarWinds hacking, the (disproven) Russian bounty on US soldiers allegation, and “attempts to interfere in the 2020 election”. The White House also issued an executive order barring US financial institutions from purchasing RUB-denominated bonds from June 2021. This shows the Biden administration continuing the Trump tactic of using the US financial system as a weapon.

Yet these sanctions are more sabre-rattling than attack: US entities are still able to buy and hold RUB bonds in the secondary market; and none of President Putin’s inner circle, or their USD assets, were targeted.

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would mean significantly tougher sanctions from the US and EU, with the US acting much faster due to its unitary executive power in this respect. However, history shows that when this is done, there is also pain to the West and the global economy.

In April 2018, the US sanctioned Russian aluminium producer Rusal to retaliate for its role in what the US Treasury stated as “worldwide malign activity.” This action saw a severe supply squeeze in aluminium, and a near-50% price spike that was only reversed when the US rolled back the Rusal sanctions in response.

Given the current surge in input prices across most commodities, any action against Russian energy, mineral, or food exports, would have a similar impact. Moreover, any potential sanctions on Rusal could also complicate the move to decarbonise the Western economy, as Rusal is currently the largest supplier of “green” aluminium, which is produced with renewable energy sources compared to the mostly coal-fired Chinese production.

There have even been suggestions that as a nuclear option, the US might consider pushing Russia out of the global SWIFT network for inter-bank transfers. This step was last taken against Iran – which is ironically about to be rolled back, if rumours are to be believed, to allow the US to focus more on the Indo-Pacific (i.e., China).

The failure of the toughest US sanctions to break Iranian resistance should be a warning that constant usage of such measures can actually undermine their impact. Indeed, with Russia being such a large exporter of key commodities, it seems hard to imagine that the US could act against it via SWIFT without sanctioning all those who buy from it too, especially China.

Moreover, in the event this kind of policy were seen, Russia might shift to selling in cryptocurrency, or even the new digital CNY (despite PBOC protestations to the contrary).

Neither seem practical near-term. However, they underline the extent to which the limits of US military power, already exposed in its unwillingness to fight a war over Ukraine, are also potentially starting to extend into the financial sphere – perhaps akin to the British experience of Suez in 1956 at the extreme.

Unless, that is, the US and EU target President Putin and Russian oligarchs: in which case bridges (and villas) would be burned; the more targeted a sanction, the more targeted its response in kind; Russia would perhaps irrevocably break away from the Western orbit, marking an even larger geostrategic challenge for the US; and, awkwardly, the Western public may start to question why sanctions with real teeth are not being used against Myanmar, or China, or Saudi Arabia.

Hence, if Russia were to invade or formally annex parts of Ukraine, the US and EU would only have financial weapons to respond that:

  1. Wouldn’t have an impact; or

  2. Would hurt themselves too; or

  3. Would require a massive escalation that could rapidly make this a systemic issue; or

  4. Require a true Iron Curtain between East and West, even for elite oligarchs.

Where some might find this reassuring (“so nothing can happen then!”), the opposite is true: arguably only an escalation to a painful or systemic level could send a powerful enough message that the liberal world order is prepared to act to prevent the use of war redrawing borders in the modern world – and yet we may well fail to see this happen.

A lot of energy

With Russia a critical global energy exporter, and Ukraine a conduit point en route to the EU, a war between the two would obviously push up energy prices – and so would the West sanctioning Russian energy supplies, were this to occur.

However, we do not expect to see a sharp reduction in global oil supplies but rather a re-routing of current import and export flows. Even so, any potential oil ban would come at a particularly troubling time given recent shipping attacks in the Middle East —ironically linked to regional perceptions of a likely US pull back from sanctions on Iran— as well as the global supply chains risks currently at play. As such, we see this scenario resulting in an elevated geopolitical risk-premium and higher transit costs for oil, and so higher energy prices overall.

Europe would likely feel the brunt of any action as they are much more dependent on Russian oil compared to the US. In fact, Russia is Europe’s biggest crude-oil supplier, with a nearly 30% market share of European imports. Russia has been able to maintain its dominant oil export position to Europe in large part due to the Druzhba pipeline, which stretches from the oil fields of Western Siberia all the way to Germany with various arteries along the way. This pipeline provides Russia with a lower cost of transport and, as such, a competitive advantage versus waterborne imports.

We see a similar outcome developing with natural-gas prices should the West sanction Russian energy supplies of these. As many are aware, natural gas exports are already a highly contested issue between Russia and the US, and specifically with respect to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that is currently near completion. The massive 55bn cubic meter per year project is set to run from Western Russia to Germany via an underwater pipeline below the Baltic Sea. The US has aggressively pushed back on the development of this project, urging Europe to reduce its dependency on Russian natural gas rather than increase it.

As already alluded to, it would not surprise us to see further US pressure on Europe to cancel the completion efforts of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would leave the Germany economy’s future energy needs unaddressed.

If the pipeline is ultimately halted, then Europe would be forced to import more waterborne LNG supplies, to the benefit of the US, which is a major supplier of the fuel, but at a much higher cost to the EU.

A lot of food

Russia and Ukraine are also crucial in global agri commodity supply chains. Although this is true in many areas, we want to focus on wheat and barley first.

Figure 2: “The bread basket”

 

Source: USDA

Figure 3: “The beer basket”

 

Source: USDA

As Figures 2 and 3 above show, assuming that a worst-case ‘Novorossiya’ scenario shown in Figure 1 were to occur, the areas of Ukraine that could see military disruption to activity or outright Russian seizure account for around half of Ukrainian wheat and barley production: and all of the key ports on both the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov from which they are shipped. That matters when Ukraine itself accounts for around 10% of global exports of wheat and 16% of barley – and when we are in a period of huge agri-commodity price inflation. (As flagged here, the risk was already of a major price spike if one of several conditions were met: war was not one we included.)

Any port in a price storm?

Even a far milder scenario where only the smaller Azov ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk are unusable –and recall the Kerch Strait leading to them are already closed to some vessels by Russia– we are talking about nearly 5% of Ukraine’s wheat production, or 1.9 million tonnes of production.

Of course, presuming other ports in Western Ukraine are available, the nearest is Ochakiv 480km away: then the back of an envelope maths suggests it would cost USD26.4 a tonne to move crops from Berdyansk to Ochakiv port by truck, and USD15.8/tonne to do so by train – all of which would have to be added to the sales price. A further list of ports and capacity lies below – all of which are on the pathway towards Odessa if the Russian military moves in that direction.

Over the past decade Ukraine has also emerged as the world’s fourth largest corn exporter, shipping 15% of the world’s exports. Additionally, for poultry meat Ukraine, while relatively minor in the global trade context, still ships 4% of world’s total out, albeit also partly via land routes rather than all by vessel – but these could again potentially be routes that are blocked.

In addition, fertilizers out of the broader region represent large global export shares, with 23% of world ammonia being shipped from Russia, 17% of potash, 14% of urea, and 10% of phosphates. However, most leave via Baltic, not Black, Sea ports.

In short, if real Russia-Ukraine war starts, wheat and barley prices are likely to shoot up, and the prices for other agri commodities like corn will follow; and at a time when many can least afford it.

What then of the potential for follow-on sanctions? Yet another hypothetical scenario to consider would be if ‘Novorossiya’ Ukrainian wheat, barley, corn or chicken de facto became Russian – and more so if Russia then deliberately mixed its own production in with them. Specifically, could the world afford to sanction Russian goods in this case?

Almost certainly not. We have already noted the risk of major price spikes in aluminum if the likes of Rusal are sanctioned. On agri commodities this also holds true. For example, stripping out Russia’s 45-50m tonnes of annual grains exports (some 20% of global wheat and 17% of barley) from the global market’s grains supply –at a time of pre-existing, rapid agri commodity inflation– would mean tremendous upward pressure on world market prices: and this would be incredibly disruptive to a large number of countries. Likewise, if Russia’s fish exports were sanctioned, this would also be felt by the imported livestock sector inputs like genetics or feed.

Liberal world disorder

On one hand this is good news: the world could not afford to boycott or sanction Russian agri goods, so trade can continue as normal. Isn’t that what markets like to hear?

Yet the downside is exactly that same message. What kind of signal does it send about our ‘liberal world order’ if a country could –hypothetically– be bifurcated and its output commandeered, but the world could not and would not sanction the aggressor’s behavior via trade because it needs the food too badly?

It implies the very rawest of geopolitical realpolitik would be back again, and yet basic food needs would remain more of a priority than principles.

That won’t go unnoticed by strategic planners at global net food exporters or, more so, net food importers: especially not when the US and China are at loggerheads, and the former is a major net food exporter, and the latter a major huge net importer – at a time of rising prices.

As such, while economic and market purists would look at the presumed continued smooth operations of global trade as a positive after the hypothetical dust in Russia-Ukraine settles, the underlying reality would be anything but: might would make right, which is a problem for those with none; and world prices would come before world liberalism or world order, which is a problem for almost everyone.

For many reasons, one can only hope that President Putin offers a road-map to rapid de-escalation on Wednesday.

ISRAEL

Explosion rocks Israel munitions factory.  Does not look like sabotage

(South Front)

Explosion Rocks Israeli Munitions Factory

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 07:45 AM

Authored by South Front

On April 21st, a large explosion took place in a defense factory in Israel.

The explosion seems to have occurred during a routine test at the advanced weapons factory which houses various types of missiles.

Officials may have underestimated the collateral damage of the test, which led to the explosion.

The factory is located in central Israel, and in proximity to residential areas. Civilians documented the mushroom cloud.

Senior defense officials are now investigating what went wrong, and whether guidelines were adhered to. There are still no reports of casualties.

Regarding Iran, Israel appears to have resigned that the JCPOA, the Iran Nuclear Deal will be restored.

Though it’s not clear who’s responsible for the attack, Iranian media has run with the story, sharing it on English-language and Farsi outlets.

Israel is lobbying the United States to push for improved international oversight of Iran’s nuclear program, as Washington negotiates to reenter the 2015 nuclear deal between the Islamic Republic and world powers, Israeli television reported.

Jerusalem is pushing for International Atomic Energy Agency officials to have greater powers in inspecting the nuclear sites, the Kan public broadcaster said. The position was formulated after Israeli officials concluded there will not be significant changes to the treaty, but nonetheless sought to slightly improve the terms of the pact, the network said.

The Biden administration has repeatedly said it will return to the nuclear deal, if Iran first returns to compliance. Iran has taken a hardline approach, demanding the US lift all sanctions against it first, putting the two sides at a stalemate. Progress is evidently being made.

Meanwhile, the UAE received Zvi Heifetz, Israel’s special envoy to the GCC states, in Abu Dhabi as both countries reviewed the progress of their bilateral relations since signing a peace agreement last September 2020.

Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, welcomed the Israeli official to explore further UAE-Israeli relations and mutual cooperation in areas such as trade, investment and tourism. In March, the UAE established a $10 billion fund to invest in strategic sectors in Israel that include energy, manufacturing and healthcare. Since the signing of the Abraham Accords, both countries have established reciprocal diplomatic missions, launched direct flights and held several trade visits – with the UAE attracting over 50,000 Israeli tourists.

END
 
 

6.Global Issues

CANADA/INDIA CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

Can someone please tell me what planet Trudeau is on?  He still will not act to stop flights from India and other hotspots.  As I explained to you yesterday, this is very dangerous. It also explains the huge increase in cases in Canada.

Toronto Sun//Lilley

special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us

LILLEY: Trudeau still won’t act on flights from India and other hotspots

 

April 12, the overnight Air India Flight 187 from Delhi touched down in Toronto with an unspecified number of COVID-19 positive passengers aboard.

All we know from the public data is that passengers in rows 1-4, 25-31, 34–40, and 45–51 were warned that they had been exposed to COVID by a neighbouring passenger on the flight.

It isn’t the only flight with multiple rows listed as being exposed and given the emerging evidence. It may not matter — the whole plane should be considered exposed.

Between April 1-17, 40 COVID-positive flights from Delhi landed in Canada — mostly in Toronto, but also many in Vancouver. This is on top of 26 flights from the U.S., 14 from the UAE, 11 from France, nine from Turkey, and seven each from Germany, Qatar, and the Netherlands.

In total, Canada has seen 145 positive flights in that time and that doesn’t include flights arriving during the last three days.

“At this point, international transmission given all the different variants (is) just as worrying as community transmission. Proliferation of these variants is bad” tweeted Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding on Tuesday.

 

Dr. Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist who has worked at both Harvard and Johns Hopkins, was responding to the data on flights coming to Canada documented by my Toronto Sun colleague, Bryan Passifiume.

 

“Let this sink in — nearly every single flight from India to Toronto airport this past month has had at least a passenger carrying #COVID19. And 1/3 of all international flights landing in Toronto had COVID. We need better border quarantines,” Feigl-Ding said.

 

 
 
 

Feigl-Ding also noted news out of Hong Kong where it’s believed that a record has been set for the most COVID-positive passengers on a flight. Every passenger aboard Vistara flight 6395 from Delhi to Hong Kong tested negative within the 72 prior to departure but shortly after landing, 25 passengers tested positive.

What is more disturbing is that 22 passengers tested positive on the 12th day of their quarantine.

 

Hong Kong has now instituted a two-week ban on flights from India, Pakistan, and the Philippines to try and slow the introduction of new variants. Britain has also banned flights but don’t expect that to happen here anytime soon.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau thinks what his government is doing is just great.

“From the very beginning, from March 2020, over a year ago now, we brought in some of the toughest, most stringent travel restrictions of any of our peer countries around the world,” Trudeau said Tuesday when asked about problematic flights.

Looks like Trudeau is following the old Liberal line that if you say something loud enough and often enough, people will believe you. These “most stringent” measures allowed the U.K., South African, and Brazilian variants to enter Canada and drive this third wave.

We can expect now that the double mutant variant from India will be here soon if it hasn’t arrived already.

India is dealing with a horrible resurgence of COVID-19 driven in large part by this new variant.As I write, they have reported more than 259,000 new cases and 1,761 deaths in the previous single 24-hour period. 

They are running out of oxygen in their hospitals, they have stopped exporting vaccines in order to stem the spread in their own population — that includes cancelled shipments to Canada. It is a horrible and tragic situation that has resulted in harsh lockdowns, curfews, and travel bans inside the country.

 

We are told time and again that reducing mobility will stop the spread of COVID, it’s why they have lockdowns in India, it is why we have them here. Yet the planes keep coming.

MORE ON THIS TOPIC

  1. A frontline worker in personal protective equipment (PPE) sprays a flammable liquid on a burning funeral pyre of a man who died from COVID-19, at a crematorium on the outskirts of Mumbai India, April 15, 2021.

    Non-stop cremations cast doubt on India’s counting of COVID dead

  2. Members from the Disaster Response Force (DRF) of Telangana State, wearing protective gear spray disinfectant on a street against the spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus in Hyderabad on April 19, 2021.

    There’s a new ‘double mutant’ COVID-19 variant in India — how worried should we be?

  3. International arrivals at Toronto's Pearson airport.

    LILLEY: India shuts down, we keep taking flights

Trudeau not only supports the current COVID restrictions that stop us from travelling inside our own country or going to a store or restaurant, he calls on premiers to do more such restrictions on a regular basis.

If he really thinks stopping mobility is key to stopping COVID-19, then Trudeau needs to do the right thing and stop the flights from India and other hotspots before it is too late.

END
 
BALTIMORE/VACCINE UPDATE

Federal Report Cites Numerous Failures At Baltimore Vaccine Plant That Ruined 15M Doses

 
 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 02:30 PM

Federal regulators on Wednesday have issued critical findings from their inspection of the Emergent BioSolutions factory in Baltimore that caused a national uproar when it ruined millions of doses of COVID-19 vaccines from J&J and AstraZeneca (even though the latter haven’t yet been approved for use in the US).

The report, which was leaked to the NYT, blamed a series of defects and shortcomings at the massive plant, which is operated by Emergent BioSolutions. The inspection was triggered by reports that Emergent workers had contaminated a batch of J&J doses after accidentally contaminating them with materials intended for the AstraZeneca jabs.

In the aftermath, federal officials ceded control to J&J, and commanded it to oversee production of its jab at the cite.

In total, the 12-page report cited 9 distinct violations, including…

  • Workers frequently moved between the manufacturing zones without documenting that they had showered and changed their gowns as required.

  • Workers also failed to properly handle manufacturing waste, creating risks of contamination in the warehouse where raw materials are stored,

  • The facility where the vaccines were manufactured is not of “suitable size”.

  • Written procedures for how to assure drug quality were not adequate.

  • Employees were adequately trained in the particular roles in which they were assigned.

  • Workers failed to thoroughly investigate discrepancies including signs of “cross-contamination.”

  • etc..

Read the full report below:

SEE ZEROHEDGE FOR THE REPORT

CANADA/BANK OF  CANADA

Canadian drama as the Bank of Canada announce a tapering of its bond purchases, not because of strength in the uSA economy but because there is no more room to purchase them as they will be approaching 50% of all issuance(zerohedge)

Canadian Drama: Loonie Dumps And Pumps On Headline Chaos As BOC Tapers Bond Purchases, Moves Up Rate Guidance

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 10:15 AM

There was a lot of market drama ahead of – and during – this morning’s Bank of Canada announcement.

About 9 minutes before the 10am press release, Bloomberg blasted what appears was a fat fingered (and false) MT Newswires headline which said “Bank of Canada Maintains Its QE Purchases”, which was a shock to consensus expectations that the BOC would taper its QE by C$1BN (not because it wants to but because it has to).

This is how Bloomberg’s Laura Cooper laid out market expectations ahead of the BOC decision:

Governor Macklem and Co. want to avoid reaching a 50% ownership threshold too soon. Its purchases since last March are already more than one-third of sovereign bonds outstanding, the highest among its peers. And reduced issuance adds to the need to slow purchases –- there are’t enough bonds to buy following a 4-fold run-up in its balance sheet from a year-ago. An anticipated CAD1 billion reduction from its CAD4 billion weekly pace is largely baked in, and follows a scaling back last October. But even as reductions will be across the curve, confirmation could leave the belly vulnerable where the composition of purchases to-date have been tilted

So, needless to say, when the same BBG blasted said MTN headline, the Loonie tumbled in kneejerk reaction as it meant that the BOC would keep conditions overly dovish even if it meant the bond market would risk running out of bonds soon.

All of that changed, however, the moment the actual BOC statement hit, which revealed that – as expected – the BOC would indeed taper QE by C$1BN from C$4BN to C$3BN, saying that “effective the week of April 26, weekly net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted to a target of CAD 3 billion. This adjustment to the amount of incremental stimulus being added each week reflects the progress made in the economic recovery.”

That said “even as economic prospects improve, the Governing Council judges that there is still considerable excess capacity, and the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support.”

But what was an even bigger surprise is that doubling-down in hawkishness because based on the Bank’s latest projection, the central bank said that it “expects CPI inflation to ease back toward 2 percent over the second half of 2021 as these base-year effects diminish, and inflation is expected to ease further because of the ongoing drag from excess capacity. As slack is absorbed, inflation should return to 2 per cent on a sustained basis some time in the second half of 2022.”

And the punchline: “We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. Based on the Bank’s latest projection, this is now expected to happen some time in the second half of 2022.

This matters because previously this was 2023, in other words, not only is the Bank of Canada tapering (because it has to) but it also said it would hike earlier (because inflation is soaring).

As a result of this chain of confusion, the loonie went absolutely nuts, and after sliding in early trading, it then reversed sharply and soared as tapering was indeed confirmed, but the big surprise was the BOC bringing forward its first rate hike to H2 2022.

USDCAD traders will be ripshit as first they got stopped out to the upside, only to then lose money again as the CAD violently reversed.

Also unhappy this morning: anyone long – or short – 10Y Canadian Treasuries, where a similar bidirection stopout just took place.

The full BoC statement is here.

end

Today’s major topics courtesy of Michael Every

(Michael Every)

Rabobank: Does This Portend The End Of Neoliberal Idiocy

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 10:16 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

War and Peace

As Tolstoy said of ‘War and Peace’, it’s “not a novel, even less is it a poem, and still less a historical chronicle.” I agree: it’s a schlep. It’s one of those epic novels that you look at and think – can I? And I must confess, with my eyesight, I can’t. Of course, that doesn’t mean one isn’t aware of what the book covers, the Napoleonic war between France and Russia, or its key question – is history driven by powerful underlying forces, or powerful leaders?

That question, Russia, and war and peace, are all going to be key today. Russian President Putin is due to speak to his Federal Assembly against the backdrop of the largest military mobilization since the Cold War, and perhaps in the region since World War Two. This has already seen the closure of the Kursk Strait, and it now includes shutting down the airspace around the region until April 24. Nobody knows what Putin will say, and it could all just be rhetoric, with the army in the background to warn the West not to try to expand NATO eastwards. Yet there are also suggestions Putin may announce the annexation of the Donbas region of Ukraine, within which 650,000 have claimed Russian passports in recent years.

The first question is what the Western response would be to a unilateral redrawing of national borders: and the answer is very little short of rhetoric and sanctions; and any real sanctions would hurt Western economies a lot – particularly on the cost-push inflation side. The second question is if we would see a (Western-backed?) Ukrainian military response – and then a Russian reprisal, and how far into Ukraine given the scale of forces amassed if so; or if Russian agent provocateurs will try to instigate to the same ends. Yet the limited room for a pain-free Western response remains the same. (For a more on this issue, please see here.)

Those who speak Russian know the Peace in Война и мир is a homonym that also means World, so the book’s title can be ‘War and the World’ if one wants it to be. Homonyms aren’t seen only in Russian – try peace and piece in English. Which, to paraphrase Mel Brooks, may have Putin proclaiming: “All I want is peace! Peace! A piece of Ukraine, and a piece of…..”. But how large a piece might mean no peace for the world?

Similarly, if less militarily, yesterday’s Boao speech from China’s Xi Jinping is today reported differently by different media:

  • Xinhua notes: “Xi’s global governance remarks strike strong tone at Boao”;

  • Newsweek went with “China’s Xi Jinping Warns U.S. of ‘Meddling in Others’ Internal Affairs’”;

  • Reuters with “China’s Xi calls for fairer world order as rivalry with US deepens”; and

  • Bloomberg with “Xi Challenges US Global Leadership, Warns Against Decoupling”.

Yes, no decoupling, please! Yet as Bloomberg also argues today, China’s digital CNY, while no threat to the USD as a reserve currency (as it’s an electronic version of a currency nobody wants), or a way to avoid sanctions –which remains to be seen– still “appears potentially more geopolitically significant as leverage over multinational companies and governments that want access to China’s 1.4 billion consumers. Since China has the ability to monitor transactions involving the digital currency, it may be easier to retaliate against anyone who rebuffs Beijing on sensitive issues like Taiwan, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong.” As former US Deputy National Security Advisor Mat Pottinger is quoted: “If you think that the US has a lot of power through our Treasury sanctions authorities, you ain’t seen nothing yet. That currency can be turned off like a light switch.

So good luck to multinationals heartily agreeing that decoupling is unwanted, as they try to straddle the US, and its growing thicket of USD sanctions wrapped around a human rights foreign policy focus, and China, with its Panopticon e-CNY that can be turned off to ensure US sanctions and human rights foreign policy have no power over it. Somewhere in-between this Scylla and Charybdis sails the good ship Liberal World Order, the crew all merrily singing “I am the very model of a Build-Back-Better General.”

New Zealand already appears to have jumped the gun(ship) here, with its foreign minister partially walking away from the post-WW2 Five-Eyes western intelligence grouping if it involves doing anything about China.  

Anyway, somewhere that powerful leaders are not being seen and powerful –dare I say revolutionary?– forces are sweeping in, is football. The European Super League, so derided in this Daily for the past two days, has crumbled. All six English clubs have pulled out, with one or two even apologizing to “legacy” fans, and the vice-chair of Manchester United resigning. Victory for the people’s game! Victory for localism over globalism! Well, yes,…except it’s far from certain the British government will now act as promised to deliver real power back into fans’ hands via partial ownership of the clubs they worship to stop this happening again. Moreover, the pre-existing football structure we revert to includes an expanded gilt-edged Champions League format, and a game that is still more about money than it is about anything else.

So does this portend the end of Build Back Better globalism? Or the end of neoliberal idiocy? Or the entrenchment of nasty neoliberalism as the savior from an even stupider version of neoliberalism? Well, in markets, every time our system fails we swear we are changing it in response – and then the same old faces do the same old things, but worse, under a new badge.

The primary way this now happens of course is that central banks pretend that not only do they not see the asset inflation they are deliberately stoking, they also don’t see the supply-side cost-push inflation. Instead, they talk about the wage inflation they can never stoke alone – and which even fiscal policy in tandem can’t either without people power ‘football’ policy. As we have just seen, this will also have to involve decoupling and (peaceful) redrawing of economic borders around a local, national, or limited international perimeter. On which note, the US push for a new liberal world fiscal order is reportedly already in trouble (no!) because Amazon doesn’t want to join the party: ‘Taxation Dies in Darkness’, it seems.

So to conclude my own epic here, which way are the powerful forces of history leading us? And what are powerful leaders going to do to either resist or accelerate this momentum? It seems odd for a global financial market with the attention span of a bowl of borscht to have to consider, but that kind of Tolstoyan question is still one for the ages. Today particularly so.

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDIA
 
 
END

 

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY  morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.2005 DOWN .0026 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL MIXED  

USA/ YEN 108.08 DOWN 0.055 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3922  DOWN   0.0016  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2599 DOWN .0012 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL  BY 26 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.2005 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE DOWN 0.01 PTS OR 0.00% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 2513.81 PTS OR 1.76%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.32% // EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL MIXED 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang DOWN 513.81 PTS OR 1.76%  

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 0.01 PTS OR 0.00% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.32%  

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 591.83  POINTS OR 2.03%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1783.90

silver:$26.03-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.572% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.266 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 91.36UP 12 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.40% DOWN 1  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.075%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.39%//  DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.76 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 38 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.26% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.02% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2034   UP    .0002 or 2 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.09  DOWN .040 OR YEN UP 4  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3935 DOWN .002 POUND DOWN 2  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 137 basis points to 1.2475

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (UP).. 6.4909

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.750  (YUAN UP)..6.4903

TURKISH LIRA:  8.12  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.585%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.576 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.272 UP 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 91.13 DOWN 11  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 45.55 PTS OR 0.66% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 66.67 PTS OR 0.44% 

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 50.50 PTS OR 0.82% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP  75.50  PTS OR  0.89%  

 

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 88.52 PTS OR 0.37% 

 

WTI Oil price; 62.00 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 65.92 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    76.58  THE CROSS  LOWER BY 0.36 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 36 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.26 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 61.01//

BRENT :  64.97

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.560..down 1 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.255 down  1 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.2033 ( UP 7   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.08 DOWN .054 (YEN UP 5 40SIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 91.12 DOWN 12 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3923 down 14  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.19

the Russian rouble 76.58   down 0.37 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2613  DOWN  89 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.25%

The Dow closed UP 316.01 POINTS OR 0.93%

NASDAQ closed UP 125.85 POINTS OR 0.91%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.01 CLOSED DOWN 1.67

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.184%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Ethereum Erupts, Small Caps Soar As S&P Breadth Reaches Record High

 
 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 04:00 PM

The tsunami wave of monetary and fiscal profligacy combined with an orgy of optimism about vaccinations and a post-COVID world, have sparked the broadest rally in the underlying components of the S&P 500 in history… (487 names on the S&P 500 Index have climbed above their 200-day moving average)

Source: Bloomberg

But it was Small Caps that dominated today (after collapsing yesterday). Nasdaq lagged but all the US majors were higher and thelast 30 mins saw the ubiquitous buying panic..

Interestingly, the bounce in Small Caps occurred at a key level relative to The Dow…

Source: Bloomberg

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what happened… as yet another short squeeze was engineered…

Source: Bloomberg

COIN continued to fall…

NFLX tumbled into the red YTD after subs growth slumped…

After this morning’s opex, VIX was clubbed like baby-seal today from over 19 to a 16 handle…

Bonds were practically dead today, trading in a very narrow range and going nowhere….

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields traded in a 2bps range!

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dropped today (thanks to a surge in the Loonie as BoC tapered its QE)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Loonie spiked almost 2 big figures…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were a mixed bag today with Ethereum ripping back higher, erasing the weekend’s plunge losses…

Source: Bloomberg

And ETH is dramatically outperforming BTC…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI tumbled after last night’s API-reported crude build was confirmed by the official data…

Gold futures extended their recent gains, back up near $1800 today, at two-month highs…

Finally, the reality gap grows…

Source: Bloomberg

“It’s a mad world alright…”

2

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//THIS AFTERNOON

 
ii) Market data
 
 
 

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Idiots..

Oregon is thinking of making mask mandate permanent\

 

(Stieber/EpochTimes)

Oregon Mulls Making Mask Mandate Permanent

 
TUESDAY, APR 20, 2021 – 06:05 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Officials in Oregon are considering making masking and social distancing requirements permanent.

The requirements, first introduced last year in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19, are set to expire on May 4.

Oregon’s Occupational Safety and Health Division (OSHA) is proposing rules with no end date that would require a mask or other face covering for any person entering a business or a housing facility provided by employers. The rules would also require physical distancing, or the maintaining of distance between people.

As the Governor’s Executive Order is set to expire, the public health emergency remains a substantial concern in Oregon. As a result, it is necessary to extend the provisions from the Executive Order with a permanent rule. The unique exposures created in the labor housing environment, particularly in working situations requiring large numbers of workers, make these rules necessary to reduce risk to individual workers,” the division said in a summary of one of the proposed rules.

The office said the masking rule for businesses will likely be repealed “once it is no longer necessary to address the COVID-19 pandemic.”

During the public comment period on the proposals, OSHA received a record number of public comments, mostly critical, and nearly 60,000 residents signed a petition against them.

The petition’s author, Jack Dresser, said that an unelected public agency should not be allowed “‘indefinite’ authority over any facet of public life.”

“These rules would continue to impose intrusive, burdensome, and unnecessary reach of government into Oregon businesses, their employees, customer and client privacy, and customer freedoms to conduct commerce without government interference,” he wrote.

Opponents also are upset government officials won’t say how low Oregon’s COVID-19 case numbers must go, or how many people would have to be vaccinated, to get the requirements lifted in a state that’s already had some of the nation’s strictest safety measures.

“When will masks be unnecessary? What scientific studies do these mandates rely on, particularly now that the vaccine is days away from being available to everyone?” said state Sen. Kim Thatcher, a Republican from Keizer, near the state’s capital.

“Businesses have had to play ‘mask cop’ for the better part of a year now. They deserve some certainty on when they will no longer be threatened with fines.”

Michael Wood, administrator of Oregon’s OSHA, said that he is reviewing all the feedback to see if changes are needed before he makes a final decision by May 4, when the current rules lapse.

Residents wearing masks sit in downtown Lake Oswego, Ore., on April 11, 2021. (Gillian Flaccus/AP Photo)

Oregon, a blue state, has been among those with the country’s most stringent COVID-19 restrictions and now stands in contrast with much of the rest of the nation as vaccines become more widely available.

At least six states—Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, and Texas—have lifted mask mandates, and some never implemented them. In Texas, businesses reopened at 100 percent capacity last month.

“Make no mistake, COVID-19 has not disappeared, but it is clear from the recoveries, vaccinations, reduced hospitalizations, and safe practices that Texans are using that state mandates are no longer needed,” Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced last month.

A number of top public health officials, such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, decried the move, but it did not lead to a surge in COVID-19 cases that some had predicted. Fauci later said he found that fact “confusing.”

Oregon has seen its daily new cases of the disease drop from a peak of over 2,000 in December of last year to several hundred in March. The daily cases have been climbing this month, reaching a recent-high of 888 on April 17.

Some 199 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized as of April 16, with 15 other patients suspected to have the disease, according to state data. Over 5,000 hospital beds were available in the state.

Under Oregon’s temporary rules, 11 businesses in the state have been fined for violations. Last week, two Black Bear Diner sites, one in Bend and one in Redmond, were fined more than $35,000 for “willfully allowing indoor dining” despite officials designating Deschutes County an “extreme risk” for transmission of the virus.

Besides mask and distancing requirements, Oregon’s permanent proposals include workplace rules regarding air flow, ventilation, employee notification in case of an outbreak, and sanitation protocols.

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown speaks to the press in Roseburg, Ore., on Oct. 2, 2015. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

The proposals dovetail with separate actions issued by Democratic Gov. Kate Brown, using a state of emergency declaration, requiring masks in public statewide—and even outside when six feet (1.83 meters) of distance can’t be maintained—and providing strict, county-by-county thresholds for business closures or reductions in capacity when case numbers rise above certain levels.

More than a third of Oregon’s counties are currently limited to indoor social gatherings of six people, and the maximum occupancy for indoor dining, indoor entertainment, and gyms is 25 percent capacity or 50 people, whichever is less. And many schools are just now reopening after a year of online learning.

The workplace rule is “driven by the pandemic, and it will be repealed,” Wood said.

“But it might not need to go away at exactly the same time the State of Emergency is lifted,” he said, referring to Brown’s executive orders.

Amid pandemic frustration and deprivation, the issue has gained a lot of attention. More than 5,000 public comments were sent to the agency, smashing its previous record of 1,100.

“The majority of comments were simply hostile to the entire notion of COVID-19 restrictions,” Wood said.

“The vast majority of comments were in the context of, ‘You never needed to do anything.’”

Justin Spaulding, a doctor at the Cataract & Laser Institute of Southern Oregon, is among those who raised concerns about the proposal in public comments.

“I do not understand these new guidelines for business. If we put these into effect we will only continue to blunt the recent drop in business,” he wrote. “We have a large subset of patients that are unwilling [or] hostile with the current guidelines, and making them permanent will only make it worse.”

END
NEW YORK//RIOTS
BLM activists demand white restaurant owners leave New York City
(Watson/SummitNews)

“Get The F**k Out Of New York!”: BLM Protesters Demand White Restaurant Owners Leave The City

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 11:23 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

BLM protesters in New York reacted to the Derek Chauvin verdict by harassing diners and demanding white owners of restaurants “get the f**k out” of the city.

Unruly protests broke out in numerous major cities last night despite Chauvin being convicted on all counts.

A video shows BLM agitators yelling at diners, “Get the f**k out of New York! We don’t want you here.”

“We don’t want your money! We don’t want your f**king taquerias owned by white men!” the crowd chants, before another demonstrator suggests that the diners “tip 30 per cent” of their income.

The group later marched across Manhattan Bridge while chanting “one solution, revolution” as they carried a banner displaying bloody hand prints and the words “abolish the NYPD.”

Harassing people who are trying to eat their dinner has become a specialty of Black Lives Matter since the start of last summer.

The confrontations resemble Maoist-style struggle sessions where white people are aggressively confronted, subjected to ritual public humiliation and forced to show allegiance to the mob by raising their fist.

END

SOUTHWEST USA
The South west USA has been experiencing a mega drought this year.  It will cause devastating crop failures
Michael Snyder/EconomicCollapseblog)

Farmers Warn That The Megadrought In The Western US Threatens To Cause Devastating Crop Failures In 2021

 
TUESDAY, APR 20, 2021 – 06:45 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Throughout U.S. history, there have always been droughts in the western half of the country from time to time, but what we are dealing with now is truly alarming.  Scientists tell us that a multi-year “megadrought” has developed in the southwestern portion of the country, and this is the worst year of that “megadrought” so far by a wide margin.  If conditions do not radically improve soon, we are going to have a major agricultural disaster on our hands.  Some farmers have already decided not to plant crops at all this year, but many others have decided to plant anyway knowing that if enough rain doesn’t come their crops will certainly fail.

As I have discussed previously, the epicenter of this “megadrought” is the Four Corners region in the Southwest, but this drought is so immense it is even causing immense nightmares for farmers as far away as North Dakota.

In fact, the first few months of this year were the driest that North Dakota has seen in 126 years

The period of January to March 2021 was the driest in 126 years for North Dakota. Farmers are starting to make difficult decisions on planting and culling herds as the governor of the state declared a statewide drought disaster on April 8. Soil moistures across the state, particularly in western portions of North Dakota, are lacking sufficient moisture to sustain normal crop development growth. The first eight days of April 2021 offered little help as hot, summer-like temperatures, gusty winds, and low humidity across the state accelerated drying conditions.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, well over half the state is now experiencing “severe drought”.

Perhaps you don’t care about what is happening in North Dakota, but you should, because much of the wheat that we use for pasta and flour comes from that region

Things are dry and dusty in the Upper Midwest, the Northern Plains states and the Prairie provinces of Canada.

This region, spanning states such as North Dakota and provinces such as Manitoba, is the most important one for spring wheat, the higher-gluten variety that’s used for pasta or mixed with other wheat for all-purpose flour. And that crop is at significant risk, because conditions in the region are pretty dire this year.

In a previous article I discussed the dramatic rise in food prices that we have been witnessing lately, and now drought fears are pushing futures prices for spring wheat quite a bit higher

The US Drought Monitor shows around 70 percent of North Dakota in “extreme drought” conditions, with most of the rest in the slightly less scary “severe drought” rating. As a result, the futures prices of both spring wheat and canola are at their highest in years, with traders expecting a lower harvest this year.

Despite all of our advanced technology, farmers can’t grow crops if it doesn’t rain, and a farmer in Texas named Blake Fennell says that his farm has not had any significant rain in almost two years

The West Texas farmer says his area hasn’t seen significant rain fall in nearly two years.

“We’ve still got to give that crop every chance we think we can get, but at the same time, we also can’t waste a lot of money on a crop that we don’t think we’re going to have going into it,” he says.

What a nightmare.

Right now, nearly the entire state of Texas is in some level of drought, and we haven’t even gotten to the summer months yet.

To call this a “plague” would be a major understatement.  On the border of Oregon and California, farmers just learned that water levels are so low that they will only get “a tiny fraction of the water they need” in 2021…

Hundreds of farmers who rely on a massive irrigation project that spans the Oregon-California border learned Wednesday they will get a tiny fraction of the water they need amid the worst drought in decades, as federal regulators attempt to balance the needs of agriculture against federally threatened and endangered fish species that are central to the heritage of several tribes.

Oregon’s governor said the prolonged drought in the region has the “full attention of our offices,” and she is working with congressional delegates, the White House and federal agencies to find relief for those affected.

Do you think that you could run a successful farm under such conditions?

Elsewhere in California, water allocation reductions of up to 95 percent are forcing many farmers to make some exceedingly heartbreaking decisions

Drought conditions are already forcing Valley farmers to make difficult decisions when it comes to their crops as many are facing severe water restrictions.

“There’s districts throughout California that have experienced up to 95% reductions in water,” says Fresno County Farm Bureau CEO Ryan Jacobsen.

U.S. food production will be down in 2021, but if sufficient rain starts falling in the western U.S. we could still see a miracle.

But if enough rain does not fall, we are going to see epic crop failures.

Meanwhile, it is being projected that the drought will cause the water level in Lake Mead to soon fall to the lowest level ever recorded

Wracked by drought, climate change and overuse, a key reservoir on the Colorado River could sink to historically low levels later this year, new US government projections show, potentially triggering significant water cutbacks in some states as early as next year.

The projections released by the US Bureau of Reclamation show that Lake Mead — the largest reservoir in the country and a vital water supply to millions across the Southwest — could fall later this year to its lowest levels since it was filled in the 1930s.

If you live anywhere in the western half of the country, you should brace yourself for severe water restrictions.

And all of us need to brace ourselves for much higher prices at the grocery store.

For decades, the western half of the country was blessed with unusually high levels of rainfall, but that wasn’t going to last forever.

Now Dust Bowl conditions have returned, and farmers, ranchers and local authorities are starting to panic.

As this megadrought continues to intensify, life is going to dramatically change in the western half of the nation, and that is going to deeply affect all of us.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazo

iv) Swamp commentaries

END

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

EU regulator finds possible Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine, blood clot link – The safety committee said the events should be listed as very rare side effects of the J&J COVID-19 vaccine
https://www.foxnews.com/health/eu-regulator-possible-johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-blood-clot-link

Ukraine says Russia will soon have over 120,000 troops on its borders https://t.co/xI4WytcIeu

Japanese Stocks Slide as Tokyo Pushes for Third COVID State of Emergency https://t.co/qTRQ06ZMgj

Fed’s Powell Says Inflation May Rise a Little This Year – Reuters
Powell Says Fed Doesn’t Expect High Inflation This Year – Reuters

Fed Chair Powell Says won’t allow ‘substantial’ overshoot of inflation target – Reuters
“We do not seek inflation that substantially exceeds 2 percent, nor do we seek inflation above 2 percent for a prolonged period,” Powell told Senator Rick Scott in a five-page letter responding to a March 24 letter from the Florida Republican raising concerns about rising inflation and the Fed’s bond buying program. “I would emphasize, though, that we are fully committed to both legs of our dual mandate – maximum employment and stable prices.”…
    “The data is clear that inflation is rising, and Chair Powell continues to ignore this growing problem,” Scott’s office told Reuters in the email. “Senator Scott remains concerned about the impact inflation will have on low and fixed-income American families, like his growing up. He is calling on Chair Powell to wake up to this threat, lay out a clear plan to address rising inflation and protect American families.”…  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-powell-exclusive-idUSKBN2C729X

Lumber, continuous future contract – Hey Jerome, how transitory and normal is this?

US must prepare for nuclear war: Strategic Command warns today’s unpredictable conflicts could escalate ‘rapidly’ where countries consider nuclear use as ‘their least bad option’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9490639/Strategic-Command-warns-prepare-nuclear-war-todays-unpredictable-conflicts.html

After the close on Tuesday, Netflix plunged as much as 11% due to disappointing Q1 paid membership growth (Added 3.98m; 6.29m expected; total membership 207.6m, 210.0m expected) and dismal guidance.  Netflix posted 3.75 EPS (2.97 consensus) and revenue of $7.16B ($7.13B expected).  NFLX forecasts 6m new subscribers for Q2; 6.29m was expected.  NFLX bounced because the company approved a $5B share repurchase plan.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-predicts-worst-quarter-for-streaming-growth-in-its-history-stock-falls-10-11618949977

The strange death of the Democrats – The party will decline because it has a demographic problem
The party’s leadership problem isn’t about race: it’s that the Kennedyesque image and ideology have had their last dance.  This is why race-baiting has become not only the most important stratagem but practically the only one that Democrats and their allies resort to in their public messaging.
    They try to terrify Asian Americans with insinuations that white Americans are targeting them with violence, when the reality is that whites, Asian, Hispanics, blacks and everyone else is most at risk from the lawlessness that Democrats have tolerated…in the cities under their control…
    The newborn radical Democrats can’t win — not without rewriting the rules to get around competition at the state level, where elections are closer to the people.
https://spectator.us/topic/decline-democrats-base-demographics/

 

President Biden says he’s ‘praying’ that jurors convict Derek Chauvin [The Big Guy got his wish – guilty on all 3 charges: 2nd & 3rd degree murder, manslaughter] https://trib.al/PvDr0jy

Biden says the evidence is ‘overwhelming’ in Derek Chauvin’s trial https://trib.al/FIopl3i
[And another reason for a mistrial or an overturn on appeal]

@amber_athey: President Joe Biden insists there is a “right verdict” in the Chauvin case: “I’m praying the verdict is the right verdict. The evidence is overwhelming in my view.” This is deeply irresponsible and will certainly contribute to riots/unrest if the jury returns “not guilty“.  Actually pretty stunned at how anti-justice system this statement is … the only thing he should be saying is that he respects the jury’s decision. Unreal.

@charliekirk11: Joe Biden says he is “praying the verdict is the right verdict” in the Derek Chauvin murder trial. He says “the evidence is overwhelming” Between the most powerful man in the world & Maxine Waters, Derek Chauvin is guaranteed to not get a fair verdict. Democrats hate justice.

Biden praises Derek Chauvin murder conviction, blames US for ‘systemic racism’ https://trib.al/fEOJzG7

No thanks, Nancy: Pelosi hit for thanking George Floyd ‘for sacrificing your life’ https://trib.al/qtZozX8

Al Sharpton blasted for video showing private jet ahead of Minneapolis visit https://trib.al/tevQIag

Dershowitz: Maxine Waters’ Tactics ‘Borrowed Precisely from the Ku Klux Klan’ https://t.co/qiPkiLhvS4

@newsmax: “When you have jurors who are being influenced by fears for their own safety…the judge should’ve had the courage to declare a mistrial,” @AlanDersh tells Newsmax TVhttp://nws.mx/tv

@JackPosobiec: DERSHOWITZ: What Maxine Waters did, coupled with the judge refusing to sequester the jury, will lead to the US Supreme Court ultimately reversing any conviction for Derek Chauvin

@SaraCarterDC: ‘I was shot [by a Bernie supporter] because of this kind of dangerous rhetoric‘: Scalise [GOP Rep] slams Waters for recent comments.  “Let’s be clear: Maxine Waters knew her rhetoric would incite violence in Minneapolis—but she doesn’t care, she just requests police escorts for herself”
https://saraacarter.com/i-was-shot-because-of-this-kind-of-dangerous-rhetoric-scalise-slams-waters-for-recent-comments/

@disclosetv: House votes 216-210 to defeat the Republican resolution to censure Maxine Waters.
[If there can be no commonality on fundamental decorum and basic justice…]

John Solomon (@jsolomonReports): The NYT reported Capitol police officer Brian Sicknuck was ‘killed by a pro-Trump mob’ … beaten over the head with a fire extinguisher. None of it was true. Medical examiner ruled Sicknick had two strokes. When will the fiction stop?

@EmeraldRobinson: The same people who lied about Officer Sicknick are the same people who lied about Russia bounties are the same people who pushed the Russia Hoax. Same people.

Star Tribune’s @AJillSimons: Derek Chauvin’s case is now with the jury for deliberations. Jurors 96 and 118 were dismissed as alternates.  Here are bios for all of them:
https://www.startribune.com/who-are-the-jurors-in-the-derek-chauvin-trial-for-the-killing-of-george-floyd-in-minneapolis/600037651/
    @seanmdav: Enemy of the people behavior right here. Media are deliberately targeting jurors so the mob can either violently intimidate them before the verdict or violently punish them and their families after the verdict.

@newsmax: Sen CRUZ: “Today’s Democratic Party has decided that violence can benefit them politically.  I think it’s wrong and we should condemn violence from any political perspective.” http://ow.ly/8g7X50Etty5

Prosecutor placed on leave after telling court Adam Toledo was armed when shot https://trib.al/IuIl2MN

@WBBMNewsradio: Following the police shooting of Adam Toledo, there’s a push for Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker to sign a new law that would label gun violence as a public mental health crisis. [More futile symbolism to deter scrutiny of the policies that created the urban crisis in the USA]

@AP: The U.S. Justice Department’s arguments to defend then-President Donald Trump in a defamation lawsuit were “wrong and dangerous,” according to lawyers for a woman who says he damaged her career when he denied her rape accusation.  [Denying an accusation is now ‘damaging’ to an accuser!  How far will the madness go?  “What are you gonna do when [this] Hulkamania runs over you?”]

@AnnCoulter: Democratic Sen. Majority Leader [Schumer] calls Pot Day, 4/20, an “American holiday.”  They hate this country and want to destroy it.

In San Francisco, THREE TIMES as many people died from drug overdoses than Covid-19 last year https://t.co/O7e0ClotIs

George W. Bush said he’s troubled by ‘the capacity of people to spread all kind of untruth’
[Like ‘weapons of mass destruction in Iraq’?]
https://www.businessinsider.com/george-w-bush-troubled-by-misinformation-internet-2021-4

end

Let us close with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter and Paul Craig Roberts

(Greg Hunter/Craig Roberts)

They Convicted an Innocent Man – Paul Craig Roberts

I WILL SEE YOU THURSDAY NIGHTBy Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Tuesday afternoon, a jury convicted former Minneapolis Police Officer Derek Chauvin of three counts of murder and manslaughter of George Floyd.  Former Assistant Treasury Secretary and award winning journalist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts (PCR) says, “This was a show trial essentially. . . .  Chauvin did not have a fair trial. . . . The media convicted an innocent man, and the jury was too fearful to stand on the evidence, and that was the story of the trial.”

PCR points out, “At the trial, the bloodwork showed that George Floyd had three times the fatal dose of Fentanyl.  There was also evidence given that Fentanyl causes breathing problems.  In fact, an overdose stops you from breathing and kills you.  It also came out that Floyd had breathing problems before he was restrained on the ground.  Police videos showed Floyd was complaining about breathing when he was sitting in back of the squad car, and he asked to get out.  The most surprising thing was the police video of Floyd being restrained showed that Officer Chauvin’s knee was not on Floyd’s neck, it was on his shoulder blade. . . . The video the media showed over and over again had ‘camera perspective bias.’  So, how you see something is what the camera perspective is. . . . The Chief of Police, who had already condemned Chauvin for having his knee on Floyd’s neck, when he saw the body cam video (from the police perspective), he was then asked on the stand what his opinion was, and he said he had not seen that.  He also said Chauvin’s knee was on the shoulder blade of Floyd.”

The mainstream media never showed that video from the police perspective that shows Chauvin’s knee on Floyd’s shoulder blade.  According to PCR, “There was an abundance of evidence that there was at least reasonable doubt that Office Chauvin was not guilty of the charges. . . . So, why did they (the jury) convict?  I think fear. . . . If you were on that jury and there was a mistrial or a verdict of not guilty, you knew your name would be leaked out and they would reveal who you are and Antifa and Black Lives Matter would be on your lawn threatening your life. . . . You knew you would face threats, and your house may be burned down.”

PCR says mainstream media tried Chauvin in public, and he was “never going to get a fair trial” no matter where it was conducted.  PCR sums up the trial and the outcome by saying, “It was a situation where the evidence could not matter.  The evidence had already been established by the media with ‘camera perspective bias’ the media showed for weeks and months, and the whole world was convinced that Chauvin killed Floyd with his knee on his neck. . . . This was a false fact, but it was far more powerful than the evidence in the courtroom.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with award winning journalist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts.

end

I WILL SEE YOU THURSDAY NIGHT

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