APRIL 22//ANOTHER TYPICAL RAID: GOLD DOWN $11.30 TO $1781.60//SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING AT THE COMEX RISES TO 93.6 TONNES//SILVER OZ STANDING ADVANCES TO 14.920 MILLION OZ// MAY SILVER OI RISES TO 75,000 CONTRACTS WITH 6 MORE DAYS BEFORE FDN//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES//VACCINE UPDATES//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATE//SYRIAN MISSILE LANDS NEAR NUCLEAR FACILITY IN DIMONA ISRAEL AND THAT ESCALATES TENSIONS/JOBLESS BENEFITS IN THE USA RISES TO OVEER 17 MILLION PEOPLE//PLYWOOD PRICES RISES HUGELY SETTING OFF BIG INCREASES IN HOME PRICES//BIDEN NOW WISES TO RAISE CAPITAL GAINS TAX TO 39.5% ON PEOPLE MAKING OVER 1.0 MILLION OZ AND THAT WILL KILL THE STOCK MARKET//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1781.60   DOWN $11.30   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$26.15 DOWN  $0.34   London spot price ( cash market)

your data.

 
 
 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1784.10 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $26.13//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE

 

 

PLATINIUM  $1206.34 down $10.64

PALLADIUM: 2833.16 down $41.29  PER OZ

 

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagle

James Mc late this afternoon…april 15/

If gold and silver are so dull and boring like the Crimex trading implies, and like the MSM narrative goes, then why haven’t the physical coin premiums backed off one iota for nearly a year? Gold Eagles are still +$160 and up to spot, Silver Eagles are anywhere from $10-15 over spot. Does this sound like lackluster demand? Even the narrative about coins being different than bulk physical doesn’t add up. With commodity shortages affecting virtually everything on the planet it makes no sense that silver would miraculously be plentiful and cheap. Solar panels are going crazy, industrial demand is bonkers, and mega- wealthy people still view gold and silver as wealth.

Jim McShirley

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today 405/947

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,792.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/21/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 04/23/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 39
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 235
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 30
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 226
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 8 8
661 C JP MORGAN 405
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 2
709 C BARCLAYS 933
880 H CITIGROUP 2
905 C ADM 6
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 947 947
MONTH TO DATE: 27,992

 

ISSUED: 0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped: 39

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL. CONTRACT: 947 NOTICE(S) FOR 94,700 OZ  (2.9455 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  27,992 NOTICES FOR 2,799,200 OZ  (87.066 tonnes) 

SILVER//APRIL CONTRACT

 

116 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 580,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month: 2929 for 14,645,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $54,873   DOWN 800

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:  $52,500 DOWN 3173 DOLLARS  

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD DOWN $11.30  AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:  A PAPER  DEPOSIT OF 0.00 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD FROM GLD

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE B OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD: 1,021.70 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS

A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WHOPPING WITHDRAWAL OF:3.619 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHDRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULTS. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

569.569  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 167.06 down $1.07 OR  0.64%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 24.21` down $0.49 OR 1.98%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER  ROSE BY A MONSTROUS SIZED 8702 CONTRACTS FROM 169,420 UP TO 178,122, AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG $0.72 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON WEDNESDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS  DUE TO A HUGE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A HUGE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE GAINED AN ATMOSPHERIC 11,444 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 2742,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE:   MAY:  2242, JULY 500 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 2742 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM! SILVER IS IN BACKWARDATION AND AS SUCH THE DANGER TO OUR BANKERS IS LONDONERS WILL PURCHASE CHEAPER FUTURES METAL OVER HERE AND THEN TAKE DELIVERY.

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 33 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***(5THHIGHEST RECORDED STANDING FOR SILVER)

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT (3RD HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC. (4TH HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

2021

6.890 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.920 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL

 

WEDNESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT ROSE BY $0.72). OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS  WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC NET GAIN OF 11,444 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, THE GAIN WAS DUE TO i)HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  ii) GOOD REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A SMALL INCREASE IN SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER  RISING TO 14.920 MILLION OZ, iv) HUGE COMEX OI GAIN AND iv) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER  (WE SWITCH OVER TO SILVER ON APRIL  1)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN SILVER  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 
 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO SILVER AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF APRIL. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

 

APRIL

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF MAR:

13,205 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 13,205 CONTRACTS) OR 66.025 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 697 CONTRACTS OR 3.487 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL: 66.025 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF APRIL:  66.025 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON.

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: : 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

APRIL: 66.025 MILLION OZ  (SILVER IS NOW IN SEVERE BACKWARDATION AND THUS DRAMATICALLY FEWER ISSUANCE OF EFP’S)

 

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC ADVANCE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 8702, WITH OUR $0.72 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///WEDNESDAY .…THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2742 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 11,444 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  $0.72 GAIN IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY WAS THE HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING AND OUR MONTH OF MAY’S OPEN INTEREST REFUSING TO BUCKLE MUCH TO FUTURE MONTHS. THE BANKERS SEE THE TEA LEAVES FORMING AND THEY ARE GETTING OUT OF DODGE IN A BIG WAY…TOO MANY LONGS (AND OUR WHALE) STANDING FOR DELIVERY…

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  2742 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE OF 8702 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.72 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $26.67//WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW APRIL.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 116 NOTICE(S) FOR 580,000, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE SILVER IN BACKWARDATION (INDICATING SCARCITY), WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7601 CONTRACTS TO 479,339,AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR  GAIN IN PRICE  OF $14.40///COMEX GOLD TRADING//WEDNESDAY. AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 8897 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  WE ALSO HAD A HUGE GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING RISING TO 93.571 TONNES, AS 110 CONTRACTS (OUR ILLUSTRIOUS BANKERS) QUEUE JUMPED AHEAD OF THE LINE LOOKING FOR GOLD METAL.  (11000 OZ OR 0.342 TONNES)

 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $14.40 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN  OF 8897 OI CONTRACTS (27.67 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1296 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT .  APRIL:  0 AND JUNE:  1296  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1296.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 479,339. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVEA STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8897 CONTRACTS: 7601 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1296 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 8897 CONTRACTS OR 27.67 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1296) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (7601 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  8897 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 ) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOLLOWED BY A STRONG GAIN TODAY FOR THE FRONT APRIL MONTH ON DAY 16 OF THE DELIVERY CYCLE TO   93.571 TONNES)  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) STRONG COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND ….ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING WEDNESDAY//$14.40!!.

 

 
 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

APRIL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 36,773, CONTRACTS OR 3,677,300 oz OR 114.37 TONNES (16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2298 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 114.37 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 114.37/3550 x 100% TONNES =2.97% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      114.37 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 8702 CONTRACTS FROM 169,420 UP TO 178,122 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

THE GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN OI SILVER COMEX WAS PRIMARILY DUE TO; 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING//ALGO SHORT COVERING// GOOD REDDIT// RAPTOR BUYING , 2) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (SEE BELOW), 3) A SMALL INCREASE IN  STANDING FOR SILVER  AT THE COMEX FOR APRIL RISING TO 14.920 MILLION OZ//., AND 4) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION.

EFP ISSUANCE 2742 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MARCH:  0 ; MAY: 2242 AND, JULY: 500 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2742 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 8702 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2742 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 11,896 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 57.22 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG $0.72 GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge + OTHER COMMENTARIES

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.82 PTS OR 0.23%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 133.42 PTS OR 0.47%     /The Nikkei closed UP 679.62 POINTS OR 2.38%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.73%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4901 /Oil DOWN TO 60.95 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.90 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4901. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4879   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

i

 

 
 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA VS USA//

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7601 CONTRACTS TO 479,339MOVING CLOSER TO FROM  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN OF $14.40 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING…WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1296 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID OFF NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY.  

WE HAVE ALSO  LATELY WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1296 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;  AND APRIL:  0, JUNE:  1296 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1296  CONTRACTS .(DESPITE THE STRONG BACKWARDATION IN GOLD FOR JUNE/APRIL VS SPOT)

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED 8897  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1296 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 7601 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL  (93.571 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWS MARCH:  (30.205 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $14.40)., AND  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG NET GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,114 CONTRACTS.  THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 31.46 TONNES TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (93.571 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 8897 CONTRACTS OR  889700 OZ OR  27.67  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  479,339 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 47.93 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1493 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1493/2200 OR 67.86% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:155,159 contracts// volume extremely poor/DREADFUL   //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  179,659 contracts//  volume:   extremely poor/ hopeless!/ //most of our traders have left for London

 

APRIL 22 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR APRIL COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
 
 
 

 

100.53 oz

Manfra

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz

32,118.849 oz

Brinks

 

999 kilobars

 

exact same weight over 4 straight days 3 months ago.

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
nil OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
947  notice(s)
94,700 OZ
(2.945 TONNES
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
2091 contracts
(209,100oz)
 
6.504 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
27,992 notices
2,704,500 OZ
87.066 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 1 deposit into the dealer

i) Into Brinks:  32,118.849 oz  999 kilobars
this same exact weight (deposit) was recorded in Brinks 3 months ago for 4 straight days.
 
 
 
 
total deposit:  32,118.849 oz    999 kilobars
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account
 
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS: nil  oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 1 withdrawals
 
i)Out of Malca:  100.53 oz
 
 
 
 
 
total withdrawals:  100.53 oz 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 3  kilobar transactions (3 out of 5 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  3  all dealer to customer account:

i)Brinks:  57,731.330 oz

ii) HSBC: 289.359 oz (9 kilobars)

iii) Loomis: 578.718 oz (18 kilobars   

 
 
 
 

The front month of APRIL registered a total of 3078 CONTRACTS for a GAIN of 69 contracts.  We had 41 notices filed on TUESDAY, so WE GAINED A STRONG 110  contracts or an additional  11,000 oz  (0.342 TONNES)  will stand for gold in this very active delivery month of April./ They refused to morph into London based forwards where they will circulate as serial forwards or be paid handsomely to cash settle. They decided it was in their interest to search for metal over here. No doubt it was bankers who queue jumped ahead of other investors as the need to put out fires elsewhere.

 
 
 

MAY LOST  A STRONG 189 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1511.

WE SHOULD HAVE ABOUT 5.0 TONNES OF GOLD STAND IN MAY 

 

JUNE GAINED 7501 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 393,869

We had 947 notice(s) filed today for 94,700   oz

FOR THE APRIL 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  947  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 405 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 39 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (27,992) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (APRIL:  3038 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 947 x 100 oz per contract) equals 3,008,300 OZ OR 93.571 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices filed so far 27,992 x 100 oz  + (3038 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (947} x 100 oz which equals 3,008,300 oz standing OR 93.571 TONNES in this  active delivery month of APRIL. This is a HUGE/ATMOSPHERIC amount standing for GOLD IN APRIL, A GENERALLY STRONG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

 

WE GAINED 110 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 11,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS 

 

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

351,292.365 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.92 TONNES

312,798.505, oz  JPM  10.162 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

67,422.339, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 2.097 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,286,115.402 oz                                     71.10 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 483.94 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 93.571 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  17,844,833.202 oz or 555.04 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,286,115.402 oz or 71.10 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,558,718.0 (483,94 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,558718.0 (483.94 tonnes)
 
total eligible gold: 17,600,282.699 oz   (547.44 tonnes)
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 35,445,115.901 oz or 1,102.67 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  976.33 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
APRIL 22/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

 
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/APRIL

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER/APRIL

APRIL. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
734,704.903 oz
HSBC
Manfra
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
598,735
 
oz
 
Manfra
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
2084.965 oz
Delaware
Manfra
 
 
 
 
 
whatever enters the comex faults
leaves
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
116
 
CONTRACT(S)
(5929000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
550 contracts
 275,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  2813 contracts

 

14,645,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 1 deposit into the dealer 
 
i) Into Manfra:  598,735.658 oz
 

total dealer deposits: 598,735.658        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposit into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into Delaware  1024.130 oz

ii) Into Manfra: 1070.834 oz  

 

 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 187.92 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.64% of all official comex silver. (187.92 million/363.897 million

total customer deposits today:2094.964   oz

we had 2 withdrawals

i) Out of HSBC  129,723.997 oz
ii) Out of Manfra: 604,980.906 oz
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals 734,704.903   oz

We had 1 adjustments:    dealer to customer

 

i) CNT:  622,812.600 oz

 
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 119.593 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  363.897 million oz

a net 0.140 million oz leaves the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The month of April saw 171 contracts standing for delivery for a LOSS of 4 contracts.  We had 5 contracts served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 1 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 oz will stand for delivery over here as they refused to morph into London based forwards.
 
 
 
 
 
 

May SHOCKINGLY ROSE A STRONG  1785 contracts to stand at  75,539 contracts. May is the next active month and it seems the cavalry are showing up for physical silver as well. Thus we have April, a non active month having an initial 14.915 million oz stand and May with open interest refusing to buckle. 

No of notices filed today:  116

To give you an idea of the strength of the May contract, let us compare the open interest remaining today vs last year. At this same time, WEDNESDAY APRIL 22/2020) we had 38,193 oi contracts still outstanding on the May 2020 CONTRACT.  This year:  75,539  still outstanding!!.

LAST YEAR 3986 CONTRACTS ROLLED ON APRIL 22 ; TODAY 0 ROLLED / (WE GAINED 1785 CONTRACTS)

WE HAVE 6 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE!(LAST YR READING DAYS)

LAST YEAR WE HAD FINAL MAY SILVER OZ STANDING:  45.220 MILLION OZ/(5TH HIGHEST STANDING FOR SILVER EVER RECORDED)

June LOST 2 contracts up to 1101.

July gained  6470 contracts up to 80,234 contracts

 

IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE OUR WHALE STANDING FOR SILVER METAL.  ERIC SPROTT’S FUND HAS NOTIFIED THE SEC THAT THEY ARE DOING A SHELF OFFERING OF $2 BILLION FOR SPROTT SILVER PHYSICAL FUNDS  (PSLV). IS ERIC TAKING ON THE CROOKS BY STANDING FOR METAL IN  MAY? THE MAY OI NUMBERS HAVE REMAINED EXTREMELY HIGH NOW FOR THE PAST 16 DAYS AS THEY REFUSE TO BUDGE. I NOW THINK THAT WE MAY HAVE TWO WHALES STANDING.  MAYBE MAINLAND CHINA?

 

The total number of notices filed today for APRIL 2021. contract month represented by 116 contract(s) FOR 580,000 oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  2929 x 5,000 oz = 14,645,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (171) and the number of notices served upon today 116 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the April standings for silver for the APRIL/2021 contract month: 2929 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (xxx)  – number of notices served upon today (116) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 14,920,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE APRIL MONTH. 

WE GAINED 1 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL  STAND FOR DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND. THEY REFUSED TO BE BOUGHT OUT THROUGH THE EFP CHANNEL IN LONDON.

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 98,824 CONTRACTS // volume: strong volume today// 

 

FOR YESTERDAY 118,892  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ strong

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO -0.29% (APRIL; 22/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO –1.66% to NAV:   (APRIL 22/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/0.29%(APRIL22/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/)

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

 

NAV 18.57 TRADING 17.97//NEGATIVE 3.23

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.30 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD UP $14.40 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESSTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.04 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.25 TODAY A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.2 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.66 TONNES.

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD UP $13.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.86 TONNES

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD UP $29.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.21 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.86 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.07 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.07 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.07 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.67 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.02 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP $16.90 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF .36 TONNES FROM THE GLD//NVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.69 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.05 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES.

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD UP $13.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD… A DEPOSIT OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.62 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH//25: WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES//GOLD REST AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $7.75 TODAY://A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.42 TONNES OF GOLD: THIS GOLD IS BEING RETURNED TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND ON A PHONY LEASE SCAM//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.36 TONNES.

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.60 , NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1048.28 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 MILLION OZ FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.32 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.25 TONNES OF GOLD FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.07 TONNES

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A REMOVAL OF 4.96 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1055.27 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1060.23 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH GOLD UP $4.70 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.98 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $37.40 TODAY: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 5.82 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.44 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

APRIL 22 / GLD INVENTORY 1021.70 tonnes

LAST;  1044 TRADING DAYS:   +87.74 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 944 TRADING DAYS// +  272.26TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWLA OF 3.619 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY REST AT 569.569 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.188 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIST OF 1.114MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INENTORY RESTS AT 573.188 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.671 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.074 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 16.WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.113 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.745 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 7 /WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ. 

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 256,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ

APRIL 1.WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.898 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 417,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY REST AT 579.022 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.042 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER AT 5.20 PM:  1.949 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.253 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 582.596 MILLION OZ

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ./

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY,TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.486 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLVAT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 2.599 MILLION OZ WITHRAWWAL AT 5:20 ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/ (TOTAL SILVER LEAVING 4.085 MILLION OZ)

MARCH 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; AT 3 PM: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.507 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 589.931 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY; ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 928,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 592.438 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 593.366  MILLION OZ///

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

APRIL 22/2021
569.569 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)GOLDCORE: STEPHEN FLOOD

Demand for Gold Surges in China

Stephen Flood – April 22, 2021

News reports flooded the precious metals news websites that China has drastically increased its quota on how much gold that nation’s banks can import.

“China has given domestic and international banks permission to import large amounts of gold into the country, five sources familiar with the matter said, potentially helping to support global gold prices after months of declines.

China is the world’s biggest gold consumer, gobbling up hundreds of tonnes of the precious metal worth tens of billions of dollars each year, but its imports plunged as the coronavirus spread and local demand dried up …

…About 150 tonnes of gold worth $8.5 billion at current prices is likely to be shipped following the green light from Beijing, four sources said. Two said the gold would be shipped in April and two said it would arrive over April and May,” (Reuters.com, 04/16).

China’s official import data shows that China imports of gold started declining in 2019 then dropped significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020 and the first quarter of 2021.

China’s Economic Growth at 10 Year High

China’s economy is now recovering and expected to post its fastest growth in 2021 than in more than a decade. Reports show that gold jewellery sales in China during the Lunar New Year holiday was stronger this year than in either 2019 or 2020. This has led to a climbing premium as retailers scrambled to restock gold.

China’s annual gold consumer demand accounts for around 30% of total global gold consumer demand. To put China’s consumer spending on gold into perspective. For each US$100 of household spending, Chinese households spend approximately US$1 compared to less than US$0.1 (or less than 10 cents) for the OECD countries on gold purchases. Households in India dedicate approximately $3 per $100 of income to gold purchases. These spending levels might seem low but note that there are approximately 455M households in China. 250M households in India, and 440M households in the OECD (2018 data).     

Not only do consumers in China purchase gold but the Chinese Central bank has also large gold holdings. With official gold reserves reported to the IMF of more than 62 million ounces as of the end of March. With the exception of June 2015 to October 2016 when China was actively working to get its currency accepted as one of the official currencies in the IMF’s SDR (Special Drawing Rights) basket which occurred in September 2016. China has only very sporadically reported its official gold reserves with large gaps in between.

The last official increase was reported in September 2019, at that time China’s official gold reserves totaled 62M ounces or approximately US$110 billion at current price levels. (Note, the US Fed has the largest official gold holdings at 261M ounces.) In addition to these officially reported holdings, it is speculated that the Chinese government holds additional gold in other sovereign funds.

China’s Holdings of US Treasuries Falls

Central banks hold gold for many of the same reasons as individuals. One of the most publicized reasons that both China and Russia have touted as a reason to increase their official gold reserves is to diversify from US dollars, euros, and other fiat currencies.

China’s holdings of US Treasury Securities surged after its acceptance into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001. An event that proved to be a massive turn in world production to China with increased exports to the rest of the world, namely the US. The US dollars received back to China for purchases of Chinese goods were then invested in US Treasuries.

As a result, China is one of the largest foreign holders of US Treasury Securities. Since peaking in 2013 China’s holdings of US Treasury Securities has slowly declined. As of February 2021, China’s US Treasury holdings totaled just over US$1.1 trillion. China’s desire to diversify these holdings away from US dollars is well known. Especially after the tariffs and trade war with former President Trump.

The slowdown in China’s economic growth and liquidity problems over the last few years has slowed this process. But now that the economy is recovering at a rapid rate, China is likely to resume the diversification of US dollar denominated holdings. The official gold purchases are also likely to resume. The combination of increased consumer demand in China and increased official reserve demand will help support the gold price further for the next few years. 

or

EGON VON GREYERZ// 

 

OR

Peter Schiff..

Peter Schiff: America’s Consumption Economy Is A Bubble Economy

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 03:15 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

America has turned into a consumption economy. The problem is, economies can’t run on consumption…

Peter Schiff explains in this clip from a recent interview.

Consumption economies are bubble economies.”

A vibrant, healthy economy needs production.

Because you cannot consume what is not first produced. Since our economy is so weak and we’re unable to produce the things that we’re consuming, America relies on strong international economies that are able to produce what we consume.”

The question is how long will the rest of the world subsidize America’s standard of living? How long will other countries prop up a dysfunctional, weakening US economy by supplying it with goods it cannot produce for itself?

And then the dollar crashes and that’s the end of this game. Because to the extent that we can only spend our dollars on the things that we produce ourselves, that’s where it hits the fan, because we’re not producing things.  And then price increases are going to explode in a much more visible manner.”

Peter said this is already happening.

Prices are going up all over and we want to pretend that, well, this is a one-time thing. It’s transitory. It’s because of supply shocks or shortages. No. It’s a surplus of money. That is the problem. And we’re creating even more.”

When you break it all down, all of this is inflation. Money printing and shopping are driving the economy. Americans are sitting at home getting stimulus checks and spending the money. But they’re not making anything. There is little production.

Americans are buying stuff that they didn’t produce. There’s no productivity related to this money printing. And so we’re going to see a surge in prices.”

Peter reminds us that the surging prices are not the inflation.

They’re the consequence of the inflation. The inflation is created by the Fed as it inflates the money supply to buy up all the bonds the government is selling so the stimulus checks don’t bounce.”

or
PAM AND RUSS MARTENS

Wall Street On Parade

-END-

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

end

iii) Other physical stories:

Bitcoin dominance tumbles back to 50%

(zerohedge)

Ethereum Surges To Record Highs As Bitcoin Dominance Tumbles

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 09:05 AM

For the first time in two years, Bitcoin’s “dominance” of the crypto-space has fallen back to 50% as altcoins see a sudden resurgence in popularity…

Source

“BTC dominance 51.6%. The magic starts when 50% breaks,” popular Twitter account CryptoBull summarized last week.

Ethereum has been the biggest gainer during this recent run, having now recovered all of the plunge losses from the weekend and rallied to a new record high

Source: Bloomberg

That pushed Ethereum’s market cap above that of Exxon Mobil, Intel, and Coca-Cola…

Source

As CoinTelegraph reports, the recent Berlin update has laid the groundwork for the much bigger London hard fork, which will activate EIP-1559. The controversial change will overhaul Ethereum’s existing fee structure, but experts have stated that the new base fee mechanism would not provide a long-term solution for Ethereum’ scalability problems.

Whatever the reason behind Bitfinex’s margin markets shifts favoring bears, there’s no indicator better than the 20% ETH price increase that took place over the previous four days. 

On a side note, Bear Traps Report’s Larry MacDonald notes that a billionaire VC told him this week to “pay attention – ETH/BTC about to make an epic breakout. I think Ethereum is the world’s most interesting trade right now.”

Bitcoin continue to languish, unable to catch a bid after the weekend’s liquidation.

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin may be under some pressure after a report by The Guardian that Morten Friis, the head of the UK bank NatWest’s risk committee, revealed that the bank will refuse service to business customers that accept cryptocurrency payments.

Friis made the bank’s position known during Wednesday’s shareholder event, stating:

“We have no appetite for dealing with customers, whether taking them on as new clients or having an ongoing relationship with people, whose main business is backed by an exchange for cryptocurrencies, or otherwise transacting in cryptocurrencies as their main activity.”

Friis’ comments echo similar sentiments recently attributed to HSBC, another U.K. bank, that used identical statements in announcing its decision to bar customers from buying MicroStrategy stock

And that underperformance has pushed ETH to its highest relative to BTC since August 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, not all altcoins are up as DOGEcoin is now down over 40% from its record highs …

Source

Time for a Musk meme to save the world?

END

April 21, 202

1 – The Last Market BubblePDF Print Version

It has become almost trite to say that we live in extraordinary times, but on so many levels that seems to be the case. Narrowing it down to financial developments alone, however, I am seeing things I have never witnessed in more than a half-century of personal and professional observation. One such development is the number of market bubbles that have come into existence.
First, let me define a market bubble as an experience in which the price of a financial asset is driven to levels far above what any intrinsic valuation would justify and is based upon continued buying simply because the price has continued to rise. Here’s a pretty good overall definition from a quick Internet search
 
History is replete with examples of past market bubbles in everything from the South Sea bubble, to the tulip bubble, to conditions in the US stock market in late 1929. More contemporary bubbles include the Japanese stock market and real estate bubble of the 1980’s, the US Dot Com bubble of the late 1990’s and the US real estate bubble of 2005-6.
What’s currently so extraordinary is the remarkable number of potential market bubbles that seem to exist simultaneously in everything from individual stocks and stock categories to the overall market, to residential real estate, to bonds, and to collectibles of all types and in assets that didn’t even exist not that long ago, like crypto-currencies. It seems that everywhere you turn, examples of potential market bubbles exist. Therefore, it is perhaps no exaggeration to believe we may be in an era of multiple market bubbles.
 
As to the cause of the many current examples of overvaluation, it’s not hard to see that, at the core, there lies the unprecedented money creation by the US and other world governments and the prevalence of near-record low interest rates. The dangerous part is that market bubbles can only be confirmed in hindsight, that is, after a price crash that proves that the bubbles did exist. If that turns out to be the case, the extent of personal suffering to come is painful just to contemplate.
 
But there is one other thought that occupies my thinking amid the plethora of modern-day examples of potential market bubbles, namely, of the one bubble that has not yet formed. Here I speak of the market bubble to come in silver. Truth be told, I’ve been expecting such a silver market bubble for more than three decades and contrary to my expectations, no such silver bubble has formed. The irony couldn’t be richer – despite all the apparent requisites for a silver bubble forming, no such bubble has developed at the same time bubbles have formed and formed again in other assets.
 
While it’s true that silver is up 5 or 6 times in price over the past 20 years (and had been as much as ten times higher), it’s also true that other items have climbed much more. Certainly, I’m aware of no one claiming that silver is in a bubble, so the question becomes one of whether such a bubble will form in silver. All that is needed for a bubble to form in anything is a story that is plausibly good enough to explain a bubble and the coming together of enough people and buying power to propel the price of the asset to super-inflated levels.
 
As far as the silver story being good enough to influence enough people to invest in it, there is no question the silver story is about as good as it gets. The proof of this is the explosion of the interest in silver in Internet circles and on Reddit. Both on a retail and wholesale basis, demand is exploding and interest has never been higher – all against a backdrop of diminishing and limited supply. Because of the developing clash between growing demand and limited supply, the amount of additional investor demand required to propel silver prices higher is actually less than it has been in the past – at a time of demonstrably greater buying power overall.
 
Here’s my point – since it is clear that the potential bubbles that have formed and are forming with greater regularity than at any other previous time, it will be far easier to set silver off on a price bubble path than previously. All it will take is a sufficiently higher price to bring out in silver the typical bubble behavior present in other assets – the point where investors collectively buy an asset simply because it is going higher in price. All that’s missing for a silver bubble to begin forming is a sufficiently higher price. That’s not my brand of analysis and value investment, but it is the way of the world.
 
Of course, the biggest question is why a silver bubble hasn’t already formed, in the face of obvious growing demand and limited supply, or why the price still hasn’t climbed high enough to trip off the type of buying present in many other investment assets.  Here, the answer couldn’t possibly be more specific or direct – because of short selling by a handful of large traders in COMEX silver futures – no more than 4 or 8 such traders. The proof of this, of course, resides in US government data in the weekly COT report from the CFTC, the federal commodities regulator.
Not only do COMEX silver futures have the largest concentrated short position of any other commodity in real world terms and never have the big shorts ever panicked and bought back short positions on rising silver prices, it’s impossible to come up with a legitimate explanation for why anyone would choose to be heavily short silver at this time.
 
Forget every other commodity, let me take it a bit further – none of the many potential bubbles that exist in stocks, bonds, real estate, collectibles or crypto-currencies have a concentrated short position or in some, even any short position. That’s the reason silver isn’t in a bubble or even at a particularly high price. However, the dissolution of the concentrated short position is precisely the formula for sharply higher silver prices and a probable eventual bubble.
The evidence of a long-term price suppression and manipulation, either in the underlying data or by simple observation of the depressed price certainly hasn’t gone unnoticed. This week alone a number of highly unusual developments have occurred. One involved a “protest” of sorts at CFTC headquarters in Washington, DC and another called for a concerted and organized effort for the buying of silver for the express purpose of breaking the backs of the short manipulators and sending prices higher.
 
While no one understands the frustration of living with an ongoing market manipulation as exists in silver due to the concentrated short selling in COMEX silver futures than me, there’s a right way of doing things and a wrong way. Presenting the CFTC with a scattershot laundry list of grievances, including questions about SLV, the big silver ETF, doesn’t seem particularly constructive when SLV is not under the agency’s jurisdiction (the SEC handles securities).
Of more concern are the calls for organized buying of silver with the prime intent of goosing the price to break the shorts. The main problem with that is that it potentially runs afoul of US commodity law which holds any deliberate intent to influence the price of a commodity used in interstate commerce is unlawful. Yes, I know that the big COMEX shorts have manipulated the price of silver to the downside, but it is still potentially against the law to intentionally attempt to manipulate the price higher. Under the law, two wrongs don’t make it right.
I know those attempting to organize a buying attack are not interested in violating commodity law, no matter how frustrated they may be about the ongoing downward manipulation and it would be a shame if the do-nothing CFTC was given reason to go after the longs. Similarly, I understand the frustration of those calling for mining companies to band together and withhold silver production to boost prices and break the shorts’ control. But that flies directly in the face of the number one concern of US antitrust law, namely, producers colluding to withhold production in order to boost prices. Again, two wrongs don’t make it right.
 
So, what am I saying – just sit there and take whatever the big shorts dish out? Of course not. The way I see it, we’re in the homestretch of seeing the big silver shorts’ backs broken by legitimate market forces and it would be a shame if having the winning runner on third base in a close baseball game, get picked off for taking too much of a lead off base. Certainly, buy silver, just don’t promote it as an organized effort to manipulate prices higher. Doing so threatens to set things back and actually benefits the shorts. Plus, it opens the would-be organizers and sites that carry their message to official reprisals.
 
I still hold that things should be done by the book and in the most efficient manner. In this case, that means utilizing the best ways available to get the CFTC to do its job and that involves pressure from elected officials. Everybody has a boss and the boss of the CFTC and every other federal agency is Congress. The CFTC knows this and will respond to every inquiry from every elected official which contacts it. Soon the Commission will respond to the inquiries I sent to my elected officials, as well as all of those who also wrote to their senators and congressmen and women. While I don’t know what the Commission will find, it may open up new avenues to take.
While I am advising caution on the part of those attempting to organize a coordinated buying campaign in silver to drive prices higher (particularly those simultaneously insulting the very agency which could determine if such actions are illegal), the Commission should also recognize the groundswell of public opinion against its handling of matters related to silver. In many ways, silver and the CFTC seem joined at the hip.
 
In fact, over the last 20 years, the CFTC has investigated silver on numerous occasions, including a formal investigation by its Enforcement Division, and two public “white papers”. All these matters were related to the concentrated short position on the COMEX and were the result of readers responding to my requests to write in. In the history of the Commission, no other commodity has come close to silver in the number of public comments and complaints sent to the agency. It would appear that the Commission would be well-advised to try and fully address the public’s concern on silver for the very first time.
 
One of the most remarkable developments is the growing focus and groundswell surrounding silver. Even though I have always had a specific interest in silver, I can’t help but be amazed at the level of attention placed on it. Even those who had previously been almost exclusively gold-centric, seem to be singing the praises of silver. And while I hope I have been clear in portraying my current feelings as being quite bullish on gold, the near-universal attention surrounding silver is noteworthy for a number of reasons.
 
Compared to silver, gold is a much larger market. In terms of annual world production in dollar terms, the amount of gold produced equates to $200 billion, ten times the value of silver mine production and larger than any other metal, including copper. In terms of aboveground bullion inventories, the value of gold’s 3 billion oz comes to $5.5 trillion, more than 100 times greater than the $50 billion value of silver’s 2 billion oz inventory. Yet in every measure, the concentrated short position in silver is way larger and more intense than it is in gold.
Why anyone would want to short such an undervalued market like silver is baffling. Why silver would have the largest concentrated short position of any commodity is beyond baffling – it just can’t be legitimate.
 
As far as what this Friday’s new Commitments of Traders report will indicate, if past is prologue, the safe bet is on deterioration or managed money buying and commercial selling. In gold, prices did rise as much as $40 over the reporting week and upwardly penetrated gold’s 50-day moving average for the first time in months. In addition, total open interest grew by 11,000 contracts over the reporting week. I’d be happy if net commercial selling was close to that or even 5000 contracts more than that.
 
In silver, prices rose as much as a dollar over the reporting week, penetrating and closing above silver’s 100-day moving average and penetrating, but not closing above the last remaining key moving average, the 50-day ma.  (It should be pointed out that the 50-day moving average in gold is the lowest of the three key moving averages, while in silver, the 50-day moving average is the highest of the three key moving averages, given gold’s more price drop since yearend).
 
Silver’s 50-day moving average was decisively penetrated today, putting the price above all three key moving averages, but yesterday was the reporting week’s cutoff.  Total open interest in silver rose a bit more than 5000 contracts over the reporting week and I would be happy if total commercial net selling was close to that. If the all-important category and concentrated position changes were on the order of last week’s report (no new shorting by the big 4), I’d be ecstatic, but that is likely too much to hope for.
Today’s price surge puts renewed pressure on the 8 big shorts. At publication time, the 8 big shorts’ total losses in COMEX gold and silver grew by $500 million since Friday’s close to $10.8 billion. Of note is that silver prices are back to yearend levels, while gold is still down close to $100 from yearend, although I would imagine not for long.
Ted Butler
April 21, 2021

ND

TED BUTLER..

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP at 6.4901 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.4879   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 7.82 pts or 0.23%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 133.42 PTS OR 0.47% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 679.62 POINTS OR  2.38%

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN /

USA dollar index  DOWN TO 91.07/Euro RISES TO 1.2044

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.07/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.07/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 60.95 and Brent: 64.90

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.25%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 0.78% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.41%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.03: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 0.91

3k Gold at $1785.40 silver at: 26.31   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 97/100 in roubles/dollar) 75.73

3m oil into the 60 dollar handle for WTI and 64 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.07 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9158 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1032 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.25%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.574% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.265%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  DOWN  TO 8.26..

Futures Flat In Muted Session As Reflation Concerns Rise

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 08:14 AM

U.S. index futures traded flat on Thursday morning, rebounding from some early weakness ahead of today’s ECB meeting, as investors assessed earnings from companies, including Southwest Airlines and AT&T, while awaiting weekly jobless claims data for clues on the pace of recovery in the U.S. labor market. Treasury yields steadied near a five-week low.

At 7:30 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 15 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 5 points, or 0.11%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 22 points, or 0.16%.

On Wednesday, Wall Street’s main indexes closed higher, recovering from a two-day decline in the previous session with value stocks gaining about 1.1%. Shares of AT&T gained 1% in premarket trading after the company’s wireless subscriber additions trounced analysts’ estimates. read more. Southwest Airlines posted a smaller-than-expected quarterly adjusted loss and forecast lower cash burn in the second quarter. The airline’s shares, however, fell 1.7%.

The recent Russell 2000 underperformance signaled the rotation toward growth-friendly cyclical stocks was slowing. Notably, the benchmark U.S. 10-year yield fell below its 50-day moving average for the first time since November.

With earnings season in its prime, Q1 earnings have surprised to the upside, with S&P 500 showing a 5% revenue surprise and 38% earnings surprise across 83 earnings reports, according to Saxo Bank. Among closely-watched reports, results from chipmaker Intel Corp. are due Thursday. The chipmaker is expected to post a drop in first-quarter revenue later in the day, with analysts looking forward to updates on its U.S. manufacturing plants and chips for automakers amid a global microchip supply shortage. Its shares rose 0.3% in premarket trading.

“While certainly investors have priced in a lot in terms of normalization in certain segments of the market, I still think that there is room to run,” Erin Browne, PIMCO multi-asset strategies portfolio manager, said on Bloomberg TV.

As vaccination rates rise and pandemic-weary citizens embracing more freedoms to drive growth in some major economies, MSCI’s broadest global gauge of stocks was up 0.3%, trading within 1% of its all-time closing high after a recent mini sell-off. However, concerns are mounting that a flare-up in coronavirus cases could derail the global growth rebound after investors piled into trades that benefit from re-opening economies.

“The summer earnings season will further test the trajectory of the recovery, but until then, vaccines rollout and economic reopening will be the main triggers for a further upside leg in this bull run,” Amundi Chief Investment Officer Pascal Blanque said in a note to clients.

In Europe, broad market indexes posted stronger gains with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.5%, bolstered by upbeat earnings from Volvo and Nestle ahead of the European Central Bank holding a policy meeting. Sales at the Swiss food giant grew more than twice the rate analysts expected amid a return to dining out.

“Markets are currently a tale of three Vs – standing at a crossroads of virus evolution, vaccination rates and v-shaped recoveries,” Societe General cross-asset strategist Alain Bokobza wrote in a note to clients. “Our overall stance is unchanged, i.e., no exuberance yet. Credit risk remains under control, so risk assets should continue to ride high… Stick to risk for now.”

Asian stocks rebounded from their biggest two-day drop in a month as investors appeared to look past surging virus cases around the world and focus on an economic recovery. Japanese shares led gains, recovering from being the worst performers in the region for two straight days after the BOJ reassured investors that it will be there to buy ETFs if the market drops. Electronics makers were the biggest boost to the Topix index, which rose 1.8%. The recent slump in shares prompted the Bank of Japan to step in and buy exchange-traded funds for the first time since March on Wednesday. Stocks in India rose after initial declines, shrugging off the country’s grim distinction of posting the world’s biggest one-day jump in coronavirus cases.

However, sentiment was down in China as some companies announced weak first-quarter earnings. The benchmark CSI 300 index dropped 0.2%, with Great Wall Motor and Wens Foodstuffs among the worst performers on the gauge. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index tracked the rise in U.S. shares to climb 0.9%, poised for its biggest gain in three weeks, with industrial shares among the outperformers as investors flocked back to cyclical stocks. While the virus resurgence and inflation are a concern, “we are recommending to investors that they should look at this period as a transitory one, focus more on equities than fixed income and focus on Covid-19, which generally speaking is moving in the right direction,” Stefan Hofer, chief investment strategist at LGT Bank AG, told Bloomberg Television

In Australia, stocks advanced, led by technology and health shares. The S&P/ASX 200 index shrugged off a wobbly start to close 0.8% higher to 7,055.40, marking its best session since April 8. The benchmark index was boosted by health and technology stocks. Megaport was the top performer after its monthly recurring revenue rose 7.9% q/q. Redbubble was the worst performer after its 3Q update missed expectations. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.3% to 12,577.48.

In FX, the Dollar Spot Index inched up while most Group-of-10 currencies consolidated recent ranges; The euro was slightly higher against the dollar before the ECB meeting, with no changes expected to the central bank’s plans to accelerate asset purchases until June to rekindle growth. The New Zealand dollar was the worst G-10 performer; it declined as much as 0.6% amid concern about a flare-up in virus infections in some countries

In rates, Treasuries were little changed after paring Asia-session gains that pushed 5- and 10-year yields below 50-DMAs. U.S. 10-year yields around 1.56% keep pace with bunds while gilts marginally outperform; with Euro Stoxx 50 higher by 0.7%, S&P 500 futures are little changed near top of Wednesday’s range. European sovereign bonds edged higher and the euro traded in a 30-pips range before the ECB decision, which isn’t expected to send it off on a wild ride, though any sign of momentum could be telling as to its medium-term bias

Meanwhile, oil added to losses with an increase in U.S. crude inventories compounding concerns around a choppy global demand recovery.

Looking at the day ahead now, the ECB meeting and presser will be the highlight. In addition, there are a number of US data releases, including the weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales for March, the Chicago Fed national activity index for April and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index for April too. Separately, we’ll get the advance Euro Area consumer confidence reading for April. Finally, earnings releases today include Intel, AT&T, Danaher and Union Pacific.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,161.00
  • Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5% to 438.83
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 207.23
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 692.60
  • Nikkei up 2.4% to 29,188.17
  • Topix up 1.8% to 1,922.50
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 28,755.34
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,465.11
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 47,993.63
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 7,055.45
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 3,177.52
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $64.95/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,789.79
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 91.182
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to -0.271%
  • Euro little changed at $1.2027

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde will be pressured to reveal how much longer the euro area will need intensified support on Thursday, after she and her colleagues hold their policy meeting
  • The EU’s commissioner for financial services said the bloc isn’t under any pressure to help London financial firms access the market and warned there won’t be any decisions soon while Britain plots different rules for the industry

A quick look at global news from Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed as the region struggled to maintain the momentum from the US where the major indices snapped a 2-day losing streak led by advances in small caps which resulted in the Russell 2000 finishing higher by more than 2%, and cyclicals were also favoured with materials, energy, financials and industrials the outperformers in the S&P 500. ASX 200 (+0.8%) was marginally higher with the index kept afloat by strength in gold miners and real estate although gains were capped amid China-related tensions after Australia cancelled the Victoria State MOU and framework agreement with China regarding the Silk Road economic belt that was signed in 2018, while China was said to strongly oppose the cancellation and warned that the action is bound to further deteriorate bilateral relations. Nikkei 225 (+2.4%) outperformed and reclaimed the 29k level with the index largely unfazed by a mixed currency and potential state of emergency declarations for four prefectures which the government will reportedly decide on this Friday. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) both initially opened higher but then briefly pared all their gains amid ongoing concerns of tighter regulation and continued overhang from US-China tension after the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee backed the Strategic Competition Act of 2021 to send the bill to a full vote at the Senate, while a bipartisan group of lawmakers also proposed legislation calling for USD 100bln in science funding to keep US competitive with China and other nations. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher and resumed its gradual approach towards a 2-month high amid the eventual upside in T-note futures in the aftermath of a solid 20yr auction stateside, although the gains were only marginal amid the outperformance of Japanese stocks and lack of BoJ purchases in the market today.

Top Asian News

  • China’s SAIC to Form $770 Million Auto Investment Fund With CICC
  • Hyundai First-Quarter Profit Jumps on Luxury Car, SUV Demand
  • Japan’s Nidec Replaces CEO as It Targets Booming EV Market
  • SK’s Battery Materials Unit Sees a Shortage for EV Component

Equities in Europe trade with comfortable gains across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%) as sentiment picked up from a mixed APAC handover and as earnings season kicks into gear with traders now eyeing the ECB’s decision and presser later. State-side, US equity futures trade sideways awaiting catalysts whilst the RTY experiences mild underperformance. Back to Europe, the general direction across bourses remains positive but individual performances vary – largely due to a slew of large-cap earnings in the EU pre-market. The AEX (+1.3%) and SMI (+1.1%) stand as the top performers with the former feeling second winds from ASML (+2.9%) earnings. Meanwhile, the latter is buoyed by Nestle’s (+3.6%) performance post-earnings, in turn offsetting pressure from Credit Suisse (-5.6%) whose shares plumb the depths amid substantial US hedge fund-related costs coupled with probes by the Swiss and US watchdogs regarding the Archegos situation. Credit Suisse noted that they have exited 97% of the related position, with a CHF 600mln impact seen in Q2. Thus, Europe sees its financial sectors as the current laggard, whilst the upside sees Food & Beverages, closely followed by Tech. The broader sectors however do not portray an overarching theme. In terms of individual movers, AstraZeneca (+1.1%) has shrugged off reports that the EU is said to be getting ready to launch legal proceedings against AstraZeneca over complaints it failed to deliver on its pledges. On the flip side, Aggreko (-2.4%) is pressured as Liontrust Asset Management (12% stake) is reportedly intending to oppose the GBP 2.3bln takeover deal by a consortium involving TDR and I Squared, according to sources. Meanwhile, earnings-related movers include the likes of Volvo (+3.5%), SAP (+1.5%), Hermes (+3%), Renault (-2%) and Orange (-2%).

Top European News

  • Hedge Fund IPM of Sweden Is Set to Close Amid Pandemic Losses
  • SAP CEO Says Cloud Unit Had ‘Blowout Quarter’ in Turnaround
  • Alphawave to Raise $500 million in Rare London Semiconductor IPO
  • Commercial-Property Loan Defaults Surge 44% on U.K. Lockdown

In FX, Not quite all change in the major pecking order, but the tables have turned for the Franc and Kiwi, as Usd/Chf retreats through 0.9150 from yesterday’s high just shy of 0.9200 and Nzd/Usd lets go of the 0.7200 handle again. Encouraging Swiss trade data revealing a significantly wider surplus swelled by key watch exports may be helping the Franc leverage more from the latest bout of Greenback weakness, while the Kiwi looks somewhat taken aback by a marked change in direction in Aud/Nzd cross flows from sub-1.0750 lows to the upper 1.0700 area in wake of a rise in NAB business sentiment that is helping the Aussie deflect further angst with China over the cancellation of the Silk Road MOU and framework agreement. Indeed, Aud/Usd is holding near 0.7750 as attention turns to preliminary PMIs.

  • DXY – The Dollar index has succumbed to more selling pressure after running out of steam into 91.500 on Wednesday and then relenting to the Loonie’s post-BoC resurgence, but underlying bids ahead of recent lows are helping to keep the DXY contained between 90.999-91.204 bounds in the run up to this week’s first real batch of US data in the form of jobless claims and existing home sales.
  • EUR/JPY/CAD/GBP – Having survived several rigorous tests of the 1.2000 level, the Euro found 1.2050 vs the Buck almost as impregnable and is now hovering around 1.2025 awaiting the ECB, albeit without much aspiration for anything meaningful in terms of policy insight to trade off. However, the post-meeting press conference and Q&A always hold potential for something unexpected – full preview of the event available in the Research Suite and to be posted on the Headline Feed before 12.45BST. Elsewhere, the Yen seems to be in a quandary in advance of Japanese CPI given hefty option expiry interest at the 108.00 strike (1.6 bn) and bigger expiries between 108.30-40 (2.6 bn), but key technical resistance at 107.77 (38.2% Fib retracement of the move from 110.97 to 102.59) still proving too tough to scale. Meanwhile, the Loonie has lost a bit of its aforementioned BoC inspired gusto and is straddling 1.2500 in the absence of further impetus that is highly unlikely to come via Canadian new home prices today, and Sterling is fading as well following a test of 1.3950 vs the Greenback, though should derive more independent impetus from UK retail sales and flash PMIs on Friday if not public finances, while the below-forecast CBI metric failed to induce any action.
  • SCANDI/EM – The Nok has recouped a chunk of its midweek losses to retest offers into 10.0000, and perhaps with the aid of an improvement in Norwegian Q1 industrial sentiment, but the Try has depreciated further through 8.3500 at one stage vs the Usd with no assistance from a fall in Turkish consumer confidence or reports that US President Biden plans to officially acknowledge the Armenian genocide and likely exacerbate already fractious relations between NATO nations. Moreover, the Lira still has CBRT minutes to come. Conversely, the Cnh/Cny and Rub continue to contend quite well with heightened China/US-Australia and Russia/US/EU etc strains circa 6.4900 and 76.2100.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month future are again choppy but within a tighter range than seen in recent days, with the former on either side of 61/bbl (60.61-61.27/bbl range) and the latter oscillating around USD 65/bbl (64.58-65.26/bbl). The complex continues to balance the scales with the demand side of the equation weighing rising cases vs vaccinations – with energy consultancy firm FGE forecasting the Indian COVID outbreak to hit 500k BPD in oil demand in May. Meanwhile, the supply side tackles OPEC+, Libyan and Iranian supply developments – with Petro-Logistics suggesting Iranian exports remain elevated at 500k BPD thus far in April and may not hit 2020 lows as JCPOA talks continue – with the US said to be mulling lifting some oil-related sanctions. Tensions with Russia are also eyed as drills are underway, with over 40 warships and 20 support vessels in military drills in the Black Sea, and north of 10,000 partaking in drills in Crimea. Turning to OPEC+, there remains a lack of official communication from the secretariat on whether an OPEC+ meeting will follow next week’s JMMC. If an OPEC+ meeting is to go ahead, then the door remains open for a potential tweak to the output quotas set through July in wake of the COVID developments and some limited vaccine rollouts in light of rare blood clot reports. Russia has remarked that next week’s meeting will likely focus more on current market dynamics, intimating just a JMMC meeting, whilst some also suggested that it will be difficult to carry out two meetings during the Islamic period of Ramadan. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver have been moving with firming Dollar, with the former waning off its 1,797/oz intraday peak to reside at session lows, whilst spot silver failed to sustain an upside breach of USD 26.50/oz overnight. Over to base metals, LME copper is relatively flat but still in close proximity to USD 9,500/t, whilst Shanghai copper overnight dipped with trader citing consolidation following the recent rise. Chinese steel futures hit record highs with some pointing to expectations of robust demand.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: April Initial Jobless Claims, est. 610,000, prior 576,000; Continuing Claims, est. 3.6m, prior 3.73m
  • 8:30am: March Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 1.25, prior -1.09
  • 10am: March Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -1.8%, prior -6.6%
  • 10am: March Leading Index, est. 1.0%, prior 0.2%
  • 10am: March Home Resales with Condos, est. 6.11m, prior 6.22m
  • 11am: April Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 28, prior 26

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to Earth Day which will no doubt get more focus over the years ahead as we go through a green revolution. The main market highlight to look forward to is the ECB meeting which we’ll preview below.

Before we get there, global equities stabilised yesterday following their bumpy start to the week, though investor doubts about the recovery continued to linger given the recent major spike in Covid cases across a number of key regions. By the close of trade, the S&P 500 had recovered +0.93% and Europe’s STOXX 600 was up +0.65%, but in both cases they still hadn’t quite recovered to their record highs. It was a fairly broad-based advance, with cyclical sectors including materials (+1.87%), energy (+1.48%) and semiconductors (+2.28%) among the leading industries in the S&P. The Dow Jones (+0.93%) matched the S&P’s gain while the small-cap Russell 2000 (+2.35%) outperformed on the day after underperforming in the early part of the week. The FANG+ index (+0.29%) underperformed thanks to Netflix (-7.40%) seeing its worst daily performance since November. The move lower for the streaming service came after their earnings release the previous day reported that the number of new customers fell well short of expectations.

For sovereign bonds, the performance was rather muted on either side of the Atlantic, with yields on 10yr US Treasuries falling back -0.3bp. Bunds (0.0bps), OATs (-0.3bps) and gilts (+0.9bps) were similarly dull, while BTPs (-2.6bps) rallied slightly. But precious metals had another decent performance as concerns about the economic recovery picked up, with gold prices (+0.85%) reaching their highest level in almost 2 months at just under $1800/oz, and silver (+2.82%) having its best daily performance in over a month. Elsewhere in commodities, WTI (-1.75%) and Brent (-1.88%) both fell back even as some European countries announced Covid-19 restrictions would be easing in the coming weeks. The US dollar index fell slightly (-0.14%) for its 7th daily loss in the last 8 sessions and is now on track for its third weekly decline in a row – the first time that would have occurred since December if the dollar does not rally into the weekend.

Overnight in Asia, markets are following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+2.04%) outperforming while the Hang Seng (+0.46%) and Kospi (+0.39%) are also up. However, the Shanghai Comp (-0.05%) is trading a touch lower. Futures on the S&P 500 (-0.16%) are also trading lower while yields on 10y USTs are down -2.4bps to 1.533%. European futures are pointing to a positive open though with those on the Stoxx 50 up as much as +0.56%. In other news, Bloomberg reported that the SEC is exploring how to increase transparency for the types of derivative bets that sank Archegos Capital. The report also added that the SEC is also under pressure from Capitol Hill to shed more light on who’s shorting public companies after the GameStop frenzy.

Looking ahead, one of the main highlights today will be the ECB’s latest monetary policy decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. In contrast to the sharp rise that took place at the start of the year, longer-term nominal bond yields have been broadly stable since the March meeting, and our economists write in their preview (link here) that a change in the policy stance is unlikely. Meanwhile a decision on whether or not to maintain the new faster pace of PEPP purchases will be made after a joint assessment of financing conditions and the outlook for inflation at the Council meeting on 10 June. However, it’s unclear at this point whether they’ll maintain the higher pace of PEPP purchases beyond June. It’s also worth mentioning that the ECB’s Strategy Review is continuing, which they’ll conclude internally in June and publish in September, and our chief European economist Mark Wall has just released a podcast in which he offers his preliminary assessment of the landing zone for the review. You can find that here.

In terms of the latest on the pandemic, the German Bundestag voted in support of the government’s proposed law that would enable them to take greater control of the pandemic response, having failed to reach an agreement with the states. The measures would see new restrictions imposed in areas with more than 100 cases per 100k people over 3 consecutive days. These would include a 10pm to 5am curfew, while nonessential shops would be open by appointment only and would close altogether if the cases went above 150. Furthermore, in-person teaching would close if cases rise above 165. In other European countries, many indicated they would soon be easing restrictions following the recent wave. In France, a government spokesman said that travel restrictions between regions would be eased on May 3 and schools would reopen in the coming weeks. Greece is planning on easing most restriction during the first week of May as well, while Poland’s health minister said that some of the nation’s curbs would be eased in 11 of the 16 regions from Monday. Finally in the UK, there was further good news on case numbers as the 7-day reported average fell to 2,463, its lowest since early September when the number of tests were less than a third of their current levels. In the US, President Biden has called on employers to utilise a tax credit provision in the recent stimulus bill to give workers paid leave to get vaccinated. This comes as the Biden administration met its goal of 200mn shots in the first 100 days yesterday and 90% of all Americans now live within 5 miles of somewhere they can get inoculated. Elsewhere, the situation in India has continued to worsen with the country recording 314,835 new cases over the past 24 hours, according to Indian Health Ministry data. This is the highest number of daily cases seen by any country since the pandemic began.

Looking at yesterday’s data, the UK CPI reading for March rose by less than expected to +0.7% (vs. +0.8% expected), which marks the second month running that inflation has surprised to the downside. Nevertheless, core inflation was in line with consensus at +1.1%. We also got the CPI release from Canada, where base effects helped inflation rise to +2.2% in March (vs. +2.3% expected), up from +1.1% in February. Staying on Canada, the central bank there struck a hawkish tone yesterday, with a reduction in the weekly pace of government bond purchases to C$3bn from C$4bn. Furthermore, they brought forward their estimate of when economic slack would be absorbed to the second half of 2022, having not seen it until 2023 before, which is significant since they’re committed to holding the policy rate at the effective lower bound until that point. Unsurprisingly, the Canadian dollar was the strongest-performing G10 currency yesterday, gaining +0.90% against the US dollar in its best daily performance since last June.

To the day ahead now, and the aforementioned ECB meeting is likely to be the highlight. In addition, there are a number of US data releases, including the weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales for March, the Chicago Fed national activity index for April and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index for April too. Separately, we’ll get the advance Euro Area consumer confidence reading for April. Finally, earnings releases today include Intel, AT&T, Danaher and Union Pacific.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.82 PTS OR 0.23%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 133.42 PTS OR 0.47%     /The Nikkei closed UP 679.62 POINTS OR 2.38%//Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.73%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4901 /Oil DOWN TO 60.95 dollars per barrel for WTI and 64.90 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4901. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4879   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN//BANK OF JAPAN/ETF’S

Yesterday the Japanese stock market tumbled as the Bank of Japan refuses to buy ETF’s

(zerohedge)

In First Since 2016, Japanese Investors Panic After Stocks Tumble… And BOJ Refuses To Buy ETFs

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 07:40 PM

Something happened on Tuesday that hasn’t happened since 2016: Japan’s Topix index (which is widely viewed as more representative of Japanese equities than the Nikkei) tumbled by 1.2% in the morning session…. and the BOJ did not intervene.

Why is this notable? Because – in a world where everyone is now completely used to Plunge Protection Teams and central bank bailouts as if it is a perfectly expected event –  this was the first time since at least 2016 that the Bank of Japan did not make an ETF purchase after the Topix fell more than 1% in the morning session.

To be sure, the BOJ’s lack of intervention was to be expected: as a reminder, the central bank tweaked its ETF purchase program at the March meeting, with changes that came into effect in April. As part of its policy review, the BOJ on March 19 said it would buy ETFs as needed, scrapping the previously 6T yen annual target, but keeping its 12T yen upper limit on purchases

Previously, the largest drop that has not led to the BOJ buying was the 0.89% full-day decline on Feb. 24; In other words, any time the Topix would drop by 1% or more, the BOJ would step in or else there would be a market crash. Furthermore, before this year, the BOJ typically bought if the Topix fell more than 0.5% in the morning session.

But not this time.

Which is why on Wednesday stocks, which were already sliding amid fears of fresh Japanese lockdowns due to new covid cases, there was a 2% puke in the market as a frentic Mrs Watanabe panicked that the BOJ had finally forsaken her and everyone else.

However, realizing that two days in a row without ETF purchases would likely lead to a market crash, on Wednesday things got back to normal, with the BOJ buying 70.1BN yen of ETFs, the first purchase since March following the Topix index’s more than 2% decline in the morning session today.

And so, with the BOJ “blinking” and indicating that it can’t possibly step away from plunge protecting for any extended period of time, expect Japanese stocks to soar when they reopen on Thursday, in the process assuring that when one day the BOJ’s interventions no longer work, the crash will be one from which nobody will ever recover.

end

3 C CHINA

CHINA

 

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ECB//RATES UNCHANGES/BOND BUYING INCREASES

ECB Keeps Policy Unchanged, Reaffirms Faster Bond-Buying

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 07:57 AM

As expected, the ECB kept monetary policy unchanged without introducing any new changes, while reconfirming its “very accommodative” monetary policy stance and the “significantly” faster pace of bond buying, which however remains well below the pace from a year ago.

The ECB said that it will continue to conduct net asset purchases under the PEPP until at least the end of March 2022, and will purchase flexibly according to market conditions.

Some more details:

  • The Governing Council will continue to conduct net asset purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with a total envelope of €1,850 billion until at least the end of March 2022 and, in any case, until it judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over.
  • Since the incoming information confirmed the joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook carried out at the March monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council expects purchases under the PEPP over the current quarter to continue to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of the year.
  • The Governing Council will purchase flexibly according to market conditions and with a view to preventing a tightening of financing conditions that is inconsistent with countering the downward impact of the pandemic on the projected path of inflation.
  • The flexibility of purchases over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions will continue to support the smooth transmission of monetary policy. If favourable financing conditions can be maintained with asset purchase flows that do not exhaust the envelope over the net purchase horizon of the PEPP, the envelope need not be used in full.
  • Equally, the envelope can be recalibrated if required to maintain favourable financing conditions to help counter the negative pandemic shock to the path of inflation.
  • The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.

As FX strategist Viraj Patel summarizes, not a lot changed in the ECB statement and no upgrade to the EZ outlook (arguably dovish). The statement has enough for EUR bulls & (the few) bears.

In short, no surprises at least not until the Lagarde press conference at 830am, in just over half an hour, when all eyes will be on whether we get a doubling down of ‘significantly higher’ bond purchases as well as downplay of 2H21 taper talk.

Full press release:

At today’s meeting, the Governing Council decided to reconfirm its very accommodative monetary policy stance:

The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.

The Governing Council will continue to conduct net asset purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with a total envelope of €1,850 billion until at least the end of March 2022 and, in any case, until it judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over. Since the incoming information confirmed the joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook carried out at the March monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council expects purchases under the PEPP over the current quarter to continue to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of the year.

The Governing Council will purchase flexibly according to market conditions and with a view to preventing a tightening of financing conditions that is inconsistent with countering the downward impact of the pandemic on the projected path of inflation. In addition, the flexibility of purchases over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions will continue to support the smooth transmission of monetary policy. If favourable financing conditions can be maintained with asset purchase flows that do not exhaust the envelope over the net purchase horizon of the PEPP, the envelope need not be used in full. Equally, the envelope can be recalibrated if required to maintain favourable financing conditions to help counter the negative pandemic shock to the path of inflation.

The Governing Council will continue to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP until at least the end of 2023. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.

Net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) will continue at a monthly pace of €20 billion. The Governing Council continues to expect monthly net asset purchases under the APP to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.

The Governing Council also intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

Finally, the Governing Council will continue to provide ample liquidity through its refinancing operations. In particular, the latest operation in the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) has registered a high take-up of funds. The funding obtained through TLTRO III plays a crucial role in supporting bank lending to firms and households.

The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today.

Finally, a redline comparison to the March statement:

ARCHEGOS/CREDIT SUISSE

Credit Suisse’s exposure as actually $20 billion although they lost $4.7 billion.  This is the reason that their risk managers have been fired.

three commentaries on the subject!

(zerohedge)

Credit Suisse’s Archegos Exposure Was Reportedly Over $20 Billion

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 07:30 PM

Just minutes after the SEC is reportedly “exploring how to increase transparency for the types of derivative bets that sank Archegos,” The Wall Street Journal reports that Credit Suisse Group AG had somehow allowed a massive exposure to investments related to Archegos Capital Management or more than $20 billion.

While the bank has said that its losses on the positions amounted to $4.7 billionWSJ, citing people familiar with the matter, reports that Archegos’ bets on a collection of stocks swelled in the lead-up to its March collapse, but parts of the investment bank hadn’t fully implemented systems to keep pace with Archegos’s fast growth.

Some inside the bank who were familiar with Archegos’s exposure had thought it was a fraction of the roughly $20 billion figure, one of the people familiar with the matter said.

As the ‘perp walk’ of various executives and risk managers at the historic Swiss bank grows longer, we suspect this is not the last we will hear, as Credit Suisse has said its dealings with both Archegos and Greensill need “substantial further review and scrutiny.”

Finally, we note none of this is really surprising given that, as we just detailed, Bloomberg on Wednesday published an anonymously sourced story laying the blame for the Archegos blowup at the feet of Parshu Shah.

Reportedly, thanks to a gutting of the compliance function at the bank, Shahwho served as the salesman in charge of nurturing the bank’s relationship with Archegos….had also been head of risk at the bank’s prime-services business.

So, no wonder he never got the tap on the shoulder…

END

Credit Suisse Made Archegos Salesman Responsible For Risk Management After Gutting Compliance

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 07:10 PM

Investors will likely learn more details about losses tied to Credit Suisse’s historically terrible first quarter when the bank reports results on Thursday. The bank has already announced plans to cut bonuses and its dividend after disclosing a $4.7 billion loss tied to the Archegos blowup. The bank is also bracing for billions in losses tied to the collapse of Greensill Capital (though, to be sure, most of the losses from that incident will likely be passed along to Credit Suisse’s clients).

In recent weeks, Credit Suisse has fired more than half a dozen senior executives, including Lara Warner, the bank’s head of risk and compliance. Meanwhile, CEO Thomas Gottstein has avoided the chopping block. And as the finger-pointing intensifies, Bloomberg on Wednesday published an anonymously sourced story laying the blame for the Archegos blowup at the feet of Parshu Shah, who had been head of risk at the bank’s prime-services business, a position he assumed after serving as the salesman in charge of – what else? – nurturing the bank’s relationship with Archegos.

For years, Shah – who was let go along with served as a front-office salesman raking in commissions and helping to “nurture” relationships for CS’s prime brokerage division, including with Archegos and other hedge funds. As Bloomberg pointed out, it’s rare that “revenue-producing” front-office employees are moved to a compliance/risk management role, since risk management is an unglamorous “back office” role.

While it’s not typical for revenue-generating finance employees to switch to risk-oversight roles, some banks make such shifts.

That’s because Shah wasn’t so much moved to a different role as he was given the additional responsibility of managing risk within the prime brokerage unit. Though the report says Shah’s sales role ended when he left the swaps desk, clearly, his new “hyrbid” role involved too much conflict for him to be effective.

When Shah left the swaps desk, his sales role ended and he took over the new oversight position within the prime-brokerage group. That job included overseeing the risk of several clients, including Archegos. An existing member of Shah’s team was assigned to Hwang’s firm for monitoring its activity on a daily basis, according to a Credit Suisse executive who asked not to be identified discussing internal matters.

The prime-brokerage risk group was one among several lines of defense set up to shield a firm of Credit Suisse’s size from confronting hefty losses in dealings with any one client. But the enormity of the bank’s exposure coupled with the rapid implosion of Hwang’s firm ripped through the safety net Credit Suisse had set up, leaving management befuddled, the lender’s workforce frustrated and investors furious.

Conveniently for the bank’s current CEO, Thomas Gottstein, Bloomberg laid the blame for these risk management changes at the feet of Gottstein’s predecessor, CEO Tidjane Thiam, who “revamped” the bank’s risk controls following a wave of departures from the bank’s compliance department. The attitude was hands-off, with Warner being mostly trusted to oversee compliance and risk across the bank. Around the same time, then-CEO Thiam shipped compliance from New York back to Zurich, a clear message to employees that risk management wasn’t a priority.

At Credit Suisse Group AG, executives had given the point salesman to Archegos Capital Management on its swaps desk the new responsibility of instead overseeing risk-taking in the broader prime-brokerage unit, according to people with knowledge of the matter. This year, Archegos’s swap bets spectacularly collapsed, saddling the bank with a $4.7 billion writedown, and setting it up as the biggest loser to emerge from the debacle at Bill Hwang’s family office.

Parshu Shah — the salesman who became head of prime-services risk — hasn’t been accused of any impropriety in previous trades with Archegos. But the bank has faced questions in the wake of the debacle over whether managers prioritized boosting revenue over managing against downside. Shah is among a roster of Credit Suisse executives who’ve been forced to step down following the blowup, according to an internal memo early this month.

The usually behind-the-scenes functions of risk controls have been thrust into the limelight after Credit Suisse was left holding the bag on two financial catastrophes in just a month — Hwang’s firm and the collapse of Greensill Capital. The Swiss lender’s losses have left investors puzzling over whether it has sufficient checks in place.

Looking ahead, expect the bank to share plans for revamping its risk management controls, an investment that won’t exactly help revive its lagging valuation, presently the lowest of all the bulge bracket banks.

end

Credit Suisse Surprises With $2 Billion Capital Raise, Still Has Exposure To Archegos In “Three Distinct Positions”

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 09:25 AM

The second largest Swiss bank has been a veritable volcano of bad news in the past month, and today was no different: in the bank’s earnings call, Credit Suisse Group announced it was raising $2 billion from investors in the form of convertible notes, while also suspending its share buyback and cut the dividend – news which sent the stock tumbling as much as 7%…

… while also warning of even more pain from the Archegos collapse and cutting the hedge fund unit at the center of that particular fiasco as embattled CEO Thomas Gottstein seeks to recover from one of the most turbulent periods in the bank’s recent history.

The bank said the convertibles notes were sold to core shareholders, institutional investors and high net worth individuals and will help bring the bank’s CET1 ratio nearer its target 13%. That number had dropped to 12.2% at the end of the first quarter. In addition to the enforcement proceedings, Credit Suisse said that the Swiss regulator has told it to hold more capital to guard against losses by taking a more conservative view of its risk. The bank increased its assets weighted according to risk for both Archegos and Greensill. But while the capital raise came after Finma raised the bank’s capital requirements, Gottstein said the decision was the bank’s own… because clearly Credit Suisse is on top of all internal risk management.

“This was not as a reaction to any request by Finma or any other regulator,” Gottstein said on a call with analysts. “It was our proactive view that, together with the board, we decided to issue these two mandatories and that will really help us also against any possible market weakness over the coming months.”

Additionally, Credit Suisse, which said it has exited about 97% of its exposure to Archegos – yet it’s that 3% that remains problematic as the nominal value of its exposure to Archegos keeps rising and late last night hit $20BN –  said it expects a 600 million-franc ($654 million) loss in the second quarter, taking the total hit from the collapse to about $5.5 billion. In response, it’s cutting about a third of its exposure in the prime business catering to hedge fund clients, while strengthening capital with the sale of notes converting into shares.

The CEO did disclose that the bank has “good visibility for a large portion of the remaining positions” and that there are three more distinct positions which we will work through in the next months and quarters. We are not planning to do any form of step-in. We are very clearly focused on getting the cash back to our investors.”

It was unclear which stocks those three positions represent.

For CEO Gottstein, who is battling to rescue his short tenure as chief executive officer after Credit Suisse was hit harder than any other competitor by the collapse of Archegos just weeks after the bank found itself at the center of the Greensill scandal too, the double whammy wiped out a year of profit and left Gottstein fighting to demonstrate to incoming Chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio that he’s of the right mettle to carry the bank through the volatility which has left investors nursing losses and questioning its strategy and controls.

Yet as Gottstein stays, most of his lieutenants are out: gone are investment banking head Brian Chin and Chief Risk Officer Lara Warner, along with a raft of other senior executives including equities head Paul Galietto and the co-heads of the prime brokerage business. Asset management head Eric Varvel is also being replaced in that role by ex-UBS Group AG veteran Ulrich Koerner.

As part of his hope to preserve his job, the CEO plans to reduce risk at the investment bank, including cutting about $35 billion of leverage exposure at the prime brokerage unit – which services its hedge fund clients, Gottstein said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. That’s about a third of its total exposure, although it was unclear how many clients the move will affect and whether the hedge funds will be forced to close out positions.

Here are the full highlights of Gottstein’s interview with Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua.

  • Credit Suisse Group AG’s placement of mandatory convertible notes raised almost $2 billion and has helped “take the capital discussion off the table,”
  • “We have conditional capital; that’s the best way for us to raise the equity with a short 6-month maturity. It was important for us to get to get to 13% CET1 ratio which on a pro-forma basis we now have.”
  • “With Archegos we are down to the last 3%; We have exited the positions to a large extent.”
  • “We’ve taken action in our risk organization, we have taken management changes so we have done quite a lot, still some work to do in the second and third quarter but we have taken a lot of measures.”
  • In prime brokerage business Gottstein says “our plan is to reduce leverage exposure by $35 billion by the end of the second quarter.”
  • With Greensill, “We have brought back $5.4 billion in terms of cash out of the original $10 billion, we have good visibility for a large portion of the remaining positions. There are 3 more distinct positions which we will work through in the next months and quarters. We are not planning to do any form of step-in. We are very clearly focused on getting the cash back to our investors.”
  • “If you look at our provision for credit losses it has been a very strong 10-11 years so I don’t think we have a DNA problem in terms of risk.”
  • “We’ve taken action in our risk organization we have taken management changes so we have done quite a lot, still some work to do in the second and third quarter but we have taken a lot of measures.”

To summarize, here are five key takeaways from the Credit Suisse Q1 earnings from Goldman…

  • Archegos: Loss scaled up to US$5 bn (previous: US$4.4 bn), and a 3% residual position remains.
  • Supply-chain finance funds: of the US$ 10bn of funds, held by CS clients: ~54c/$ has been reclaimed by CS, with ~48c/$ paid back to investors. CS expects this number to rise meaningfully and indicated it does not see recourse to its capital.
  • IB: (1) RWA for IB will be flat on Q4-20 (Q1-21: US$99 bn, Q4-20: US$88 bn), implying a cut of US$11 bn; (2) Leverage exposure cut of US$35 bn, driven mostly by cutting PB balances by 1/3; (3) broad review of IB operations is underway, and expected to continue through 2021.
  • Strategic review: A comprehensive review is underway across the group but with a focus on prime brokerage operations. The incoming Chairman (to start on May 1st) is expected to lead the review.
  • Outlook: 2Q-21 expectation is for a slowdown in IB, and an impact from Archegos. WM businesses should benefit from better recurring commissions and fees reflecting higher AuMs whilst NII should be stable. The bank did not see meaningful flows since the beginning of the quarter.

… and Bloomberg:

  • The performance numbers took a back seat as investors got the surprise of a $2 billion capital raising to make up for the Archegos hedge-fund collapse. The shares fell as much as 6%
  • CEO Thomas Gottstein said it was the right thing to do, to get capital concern off the table as an issue, even if the price level wasn’t particularly appealing
  • Gottstein held back on details of the bank’s risk-management review, saying he wants to wait until investigations by regulators are complete. He did point to disclosure for family offices and the bank’s absolute limits for clients as areas that need to be looked at
  • The Swiss lender also was cautious on the outlook for the investment bank, as it expects less market activity and it aims to shrink its prime-brokerage division
  • On the other pending issue, the Greensill funds, the bank said more time is needed to determine how much money can

“Although capital has been mainly addressed, we still see questions remaining in terms of strategy and risk management,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts wrote in a note to investors. “Capital has been clearly the main focus.” JPMorgan analysts Kian Abouhossein and Amit Ranjan previously said that the total impact for Credit Suisse from both Archegos and Greensill could add up to $8.7 billion.

end

 

We figured that this would happen:  UK is planning a vaccine passport next month

(zerohedge)

 
UK/CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/LOCKDOWNS

 

UK Plans To Launch “Vaccine Passports” Next Month

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 05:45 AM

The tourism industries of Spain, Greece and other popular European destinations can breathe a sigh of relief. Because according to a leaked report published Wednesday afternoon in the Telegraph, the UK is preparing to make COVID-19 passports available as early as next month, allowing Britons to book their summer holidays without any apprehension.

Britain’s Department for Transport wants an official certification scheme that gives British travelers a document they can show at borders overseas in place by May 17.  In order to help avoid yet another brutally slow tourism season, the EU has recommended that vaccinated travelers should be able to bypass quarantines and other travel restrictions, even though the WHO recently argued that country’s shouldn’t impose vaccination checks on travelers.

The Telegraph first caught word of the plan when it heard about details of a call involving the travel industry and government regulators.

The advanced state of the plans emerged after The Telegraph learnt of details of a telephone call between government officials and industry figures.

The call took place on Wednesday afternoon between members of the Tourism Industry Emergency Response Group and involved discussion of the latest thinking on border reopenings.

A government official on the call is understood to have said: “We aim to give people the ability to prove their vaccine status by the time international travel restarts where other countries require it. The earliest that will restart is May 17.”

The comment was noted during the call by one industry source. A second confirmed the broad accuracy of the remark. DfT sources did not dispute it.

The comment is in line with private briefings from government figures that the ban on overseas holidays is expected to be lifted on May 17 at the next stage of reopening.

However, for now, the Government is yet to lock in the May 17 return of overseas holidays, with a final decision expected to be taken early next month once more Covid case data are received.

The paper added that the new “vaccine passport” would likely grant vaccinated Britons (roughly half of Britons have had at least one jab) access to 20 countries that have indicated they could ask travellers for proof of vaccination, such as Israel, Croatia, Turkey, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus. According to data from the NHS, over 33 million people have had a first vaccine dose and more than 10 million have had a second.

Greece will likely be especially grateful for the British vaccine passport, particularly after the US added Greece to the list of nations hit by a new level four State Department travel advisory.

Despite this, Greece has moved to reopen its tourism industry by dropping quarantine rules for travelers from more than 30 nations if they can prove they have been vaccinated, or recently tested negative, for COVID-19.

Just because it’s embracing “vaccine passports” doesn’t mean the UK won’t adopt travel advisories of its own. Though these advisories, like those implemented last year, will apply to foreigners traveling to the UK. When borders reopen, countries will be divided into green, amber and red categories, with testing required in the former and hotel quarantine in the latter. It is unclear how vaccination status will be factored into this system.

Source: the Telegraph

Circling back to the UK, the vaccine certificate could come in either digital or physical form. Right now, government officials exploring the best way to make it work in the tight time frame, and a final conclusion has yet to be reached.

END
 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

So far de escalation as Russia orders some of its troops back after massive drills

(zerohedge)

De-escalation Or Calm Before The Storm? Russia Orders Troops Back After Massive Crimea Drills

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 09:44 AM

After the reported Russian troop build-up along Ukraine’s border which thrust the half-decade long Donbass conflict back into media headlines late last month, the Kremlin this week has been conducting major naval and aerial military drills on the southern coast of Crimea and in the Black Sea.

Amid threats and counter-threats between Moscow and NATO, which also witnessed a rare overture from Biden for a bilateral summit with Putin to be held over the summer, Russia’s defense minister on Thursday announced the close of the drills and ordered the additional troops back to the their permanent bases

Speculation has been rampant and the actual numbers of additional Russian troops near Ukraine has differed wildly – from claims of multiple tens of thousands to 100,000 – and all the way up to fantastical projections of 150,000It remains unclear to what degree Russia will fully draw down these ‘extra’ forces near Ukraine’s border and in Crimea. 

Via AP

Russia’s position all along has been that the initially reported “build-up” which was considered a severe “threat” to Ukrainian sovereignty (as Kiev accused Moscow of preparing an offensive) was in reality related to regularly scheduled military exercises in the region. 

“I consider the goals of the snap check of readiness fulfilled,” Defense Minister Shoigu announced Thursday. “The troops have shown their defense capability and I decided to complete the drills in the South and Western military districts.”

Are we finally witnessing rapid de-escalation? Or is it just the calm before the storm?

Here’s more from the AP:

The Russian Defence Ministry said the manoeuvrs in Crimea involved more than 60 ships, over 10,000 troops, around 200 aircraft and about 1,200 military vehicles.

The exercise featured the landing of more than 2,000 paratroopers and 60 military vehicles on Thursday. Fighter jets covered the airborne operation.

Shoigu flew in a helicopter over the Opuk firing range in Crimea to oversee the exercise. He later declared the drills over, but ordered the military to stand ready to respond to any “adverse developments” during NATO’s Defender Europe 2021 exercise.

Earlier this week Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba informed Western allies that the “continued” Russian troop mustering was “expected to reach a combined force of over 120,000 troops” in about a week.

He argued that sanctions on Moscow must be ratcheted up – this even after Biden’s last Thursday sanctions rollout targeting Russian officials and companies over the SolarWinds hack and alleged election interference. 

end
Ukraine
Ukraine’s President Zelensky signs bill to call up reservists even though Russia appears to de-escalate
Rozoff/Antiwar.com

Ukraine’s President Signs Bill To Call Up Reservists Just As Russia Appears To De-Escalate

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 11:55 AM

Authored by Rick Rozoff via AntiWar.com,

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who recently donned combat gear to join his government’s troops on the battle line with the Donbass, on Wednesday addressed the nation in a televised address in which he conjured up the specter of Russian troops on his nation’s eastern border. He asked and answered a number of rhetorical questions, among them: “Do Ukraine and its international partners demand that troops be withdrawn from our borders? Yes.” The international partners in question are the US and its NATO allies and partners.

The keynote of his address was this“Does Ukraine want a war? No. Is it ready for it? Yes. Will Ukraine stop fighting for peace through diplomacy? Never. Will Ukraine defend itself if it needs to? Always.”

 

Via AFP

The utility of such phrasing is that the statement can be interpreted differently according to where the stress is laid. And a threat of war can be couched within a seeming pledge of peace. His “international partners” can portray his comments as reflecting a desperate plea for peace while confronted with the threat of war. That is, Zelensky projects himself simultaneously as a peace-loving statesman and a resolute (if reluctant) warrior.

The message was addressed to three capitals in particular. Moscow, Washington and Brussels.

On Wednesday Zelensky also signed into law a bill passed three weeks ago by the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, called On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine Concerning the Improvement of Certain Issues of Military Duty and Military Record Keeping.

Meanwhile on Thursday a Russian troop draw down is being widely reported…

A press release on the signing was posted on the president’s website, which states:

“This document improves the requirements for manning the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military formations with reservists (military-trained persons with combat experience) in a special period without announcing mobilization. This will make it possible to quickly equip the military units of all the defense forces of the state with reservists, which will significantly increase their combat capability during a military aggression, as well as rapidly increase the combat potential of the defense forces and allow timely response to sudden threats to national security.”

Ready for war in fact.

The country’s Defense Minister, Andriy Taran, said the act also will augment the professionalization of the nation’s armed forces, a key NATO demand for countries aspiring to membership of the military bloc. He also said that part of that process is increasing the percentage of military-age citizens “contracting” with the military. He further explained the intent of the act in saying, “We count on increasing the efficiency of recruiting military units in a special period by recruiting reservists, motivated, trained soldiers with combat experience.”

Most significantly, he added the bill had been amended so that reservists would be trained to meet NATO standards, stating that among other aspects of it “the military registration system has been brought into line with the principles and approaches of NATO member states….”

On the same day the Ukrainian press reported that after the nation’s commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Colonel-General Ruslan Khomchak, paid a two-day visit to Britain to meet with his counterpart, Chief of the Defence Staff of Great Britain, General Sir Nick Carter, Britain pledged to expand its Operation ORBITAL mission which has already trained over 20,000 Ukrainian service members for war against the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in the Donbass.

And Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba reported that he had a phone conversation with Senator Robert Menendez, Chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in which the latter said he expected a vote today on the Ukraine Security Partnership Act to increase military assistance to the country, “which includes the supply of lethal weapons.

AFGHANISTAN/USA/TALIBAN

Biden’s orderly Afghan exit in trouble as another attack rocks Kabul

(zerohedge)

Biden’s ‘Orderly’ Afghan Exit Already In Peril As Suicide Attack Rocks Kabul

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 05:20 PM

After Biden broke the prior Trump administration’s long negotiated May 1st deadline pullout deal with the Taliban, it vowed a “nightmare” for US troops should they stay past that date. Are we witnessing the beginnings of a massive upsurge in violence to come? A major peace conference meant to bring the national government and Taliban into a power-sharing arrangement to help facilitate a swift US exit has been canceled before it got off the ground

“Just hours before the announcement of the postponement, a suicide bomber attacked a convoy of Afghan security personnel, wounding seven people in the capital of Kabul. The interior ministry said civilians and security personnel were among the wounded.

The attack was the first in weeks in the capital, even as targeted killings have escalated and Afghanistan’s security personnel have come under relentless attacks by Taliban insurgents. Recent months have also seen an increase in government bombing raids on suspected Taliban positions and increased raids by Afghan special forces.”

 

Illustrative image: prior terror attack in Kabul, via AP

And the Associated Press adds further that “Residents fear the attack could be a harbinger of what’s to come as foreign troops prepare to begin their final withdrawal from Afghanistan. No one took immediate responsibility for the attack.” The report emphasized that US hopes for an “orderly exit” are already in peril. 

A week ago Biden announced a full US troop exit from America’s longest war in history, scheduled to be accomplished prior to the 20th anniversary of the September 11 terror attacks, which is this year.

But that’s long past the prior agreed-upon May 1st exit date. It appears that the Taliban has already declared the national government in Kabul ‘fair game’ for attacks, perhaps in an early ‘message’ and signal to Washington. 

Prior Taliban statements from days ago said that Washington can’t be trusted, and further it would “fight till the end” of the US occupation.

A number of pundits have noted that Biden’s handling of Afghanistan is a recipe for ensuring that America will yet again find a reason to stay.

It’s the same pattern that’s repeated itself over and over again: Washington announces an intent to withdraw, then there’s an uptick in attacks ahead of the telegraphed exit date, and the US must then “answer” those attacks which in the end means extending military operations into the indefinite future. 

END
 
ISRAEL/SYRIA/DIMONA
This is dangerous! A Syrian missile comes very close to striking Israel nuclear reactor in Dimona. Israel retaliates hugely!
(zerohedge)

Syrian Missile Comes Close To Striking Israeli Nuclear Reactor, Israel Retaliates In Huge Escalation

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 10:40 PM

Overnight Israel’s military was put on high alert after alarms went off near Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor site in the southern part of the country. 

Reuters is reporting that A Syrian surface-to-air missile exploded in southern Israel on Thursday, the Israeli military said, in an incident that triggered warning sirens in an area near the secretive Dimona nuclear reactor.”

It was an apparent Syrian response to a prior Israeli attack that targeted the Damascus suburbs. Israel says that it responded to the apparent retaliatory missile attack out of Syria.

At the same time the Jerusalem Post has this overnight (local time) urgent headline“Missile launched toward Israel from Syria, IDF responds with airstrikes.”

 

Via Reuters: View of the Israeli nuclear facility in the Negev Desert outside Dimona

Reuters continues of the late Wednesday into overnight Thursday report

There were no immediate reports of any injuries or damage in Israel. The military said that in response to the launch, it attacked several missile batteries in Syria, including the one that fired the projectile that struck its territory.

Syria’s state news agency said Syrian air defences intercepted the Israeli attack that targeted areas in the Damascus suburbs. “Air defences intercepted the rockets and downed most of them,” the agency said.

“A Reuters reporter about 90 km (56 miles) north of Dimona heard the sound of an explosion minutes before the military tweeted that sirens had gone off in the region,” the report continues. 

“The errant Syrian missile was an SA-5, one of several fired at Israeli air force planes, according to an Israeli military spokesman. It did not hit the reactor, he added.”

And Middle East Institute’s Danny Makki reports the following from on the ground in the Syrian capital of Damascus…

This appears a massive escalation in the years’ long war given it’s looking like Damascus targeted the highly sensitive and secretive Dimona site. 

Syrian state media is now saying it actively “responded to Israeli aggression” which strongly suggests the launch into southern Israel was intentional – though this remains unconfirmed – also given the “response” also no doubt involved a volley of anti-aircraft missiles.

However, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are in the immediate aftermath seeking to somewhat downplay the incredibly dangerous and at this point mysterious incidentdescribing that a surface-to-air missile from Syria “overflew its target” and landed in southern Israel.

The big question remains the degree to which Syria was engaged in an act of “intentional” targeting of Israel’s secretive nuclear facility. 

Damascus and Tehran could be drawing new “red lines” – also as Iran is feeling emboldened by “positive” progress as it engages Washington at the Vienna nuclear talks. 

All of this comes at a moment of soaring tensions between Israel and Iran, which will likely see Israel engage in greater interventions and escalations with Iranian forces inside Israel, even after years of near-weekly aerial operations attacking inside Syrian territory. 

END

IRAN/USA/EUROPE//ISRAEL

Iran states some progress in talks with the uSA. Biden’s move towards Iran is a huge mistake

(zerohedge)

Iran Says “60%-70% Of Issues Resolved” In Vienna Nuclear Talks

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 01:00 AM

Israeli intelligence officials days ago told Axios that they believe a restoration of US participation in the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) is as little as “weeks” away. Top Israeli officials have lately tried to lobby Washington against pursuing the ongoing Vienna talks. 

“We are not very optimistic to say the least,” a senior Israeli official had said to Axios. “We will not be surprised if within weeks the US and other world powers sign a deal with Iran.”

This assessment appears to be accurate, as the latest statement out Tuesday from Iranian President Hassan Rouhani indicates the negotiating sides have already resolved 60-70% of the key barriers that previously stood in the way of restoring the deal.

 

Iranian Presidency/AFP

In the face of recent Israel ‘sabotage attacks’ – particularly against the Natanz enrichment facility on April 11, which Tehran had denounced as “nuclear sabotage” – Iran’s leaders have remained resolute in seeing Vienna talks through, essentially boasting that Tel Aviv’s machinations will not stand in their way.

The Times of Israel presented Rouhani’s latest words on the Vienna talks as follows

The “negotiations have achieved 60-70 percent progress,” Rouhani said, according to the IRNA news agency.

“If the Americans act honestly, we will reach a conclusion in little time,” he added.

US statements have also suggested ‘positive’ signs but have still emphasized “a long road ahead”. “I think it’s fair to say we have more road ahead of us than in the rearview mirror,” US State Department Spokesman Ned Price said this week.

It’s as yet unclear how quickly the US side said it’s willing to drop sanctions, which has been the firm and unwavering position of the Islamic Republic from the start. At this point for Rouhani to give such an optimistic assessment of “70 percent progress” on key issues, Washington must have vowed significant and rapid sanctions relief. 

Meanwhile, with the writing on the wall for Tel Aviv, Israeli officials are now doing some damage control in terms of pressing for at least more far-reaching nuclear inspections and oversight as part of the US return to the deal. Israel is also attempting to spotlight Iran’s conventional ballistic missile program:

Israel is lobbying the US to include improvements to the oversight of Iran’s nuclear program, the Kan public broadcaster reported on Tuesday night. Jerusalem is pushing for International Atomic Energy Agency officials to have greater powers in inspecting the nuclear sites, according to the report.

Mossad intelligence agency director Yossi Cohen and National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat will both head to the US early next week to push the position on Jerusalem’s behalf, the report said.

Recently the Biden administration reportedly told the Israelis to stop the covert attacks against Iranian assets which appear bent on derailing the Vienna process. 

Israeli media reported over the weekend that in backchannel communications the White House voiced “displeasure” not only with recent covert attacks – particularly the April 11 Natanz nuclear site incident – but its willingness to ‘leak’ its culpability to the public.

The next round of talks in Vienna are expected to commence in earnest next week.

end

6.Global Issues

Michael Every discusses the major topics of today, including the Russia-Ukraine problems and the attack on a nuclear facility in Israel

(courtesy Michael Every)

Rabo: Even QE-Addled Markets May See This As A Tail-Risk Off

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 12:20 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Narratives in the raw

Yesterday’s big speech from Russian President Vladimir Putin was mostly focused on domestic issues. Apparently his economy is clearly not in a good state – which makes one wonder who has been running the place for nearly 20 years. Yet there was a very blunt comment about Russia’s “dire” demographic outlook – and an equally blunt warning that while Russia did not want to burn bridges with other countries, it would set its own red lines, and those that crossed them would hugely regret it. A few years ago that kind of bellicose rhetoric would have been front-page news. In the present environment it hardly makes the news at all – even if the underlying risk of Russia-Ukraine conflict, and its potential market impact, are tail risks that won’t go away until the huge Russian army on the Ukrainian border does.

Higher up the news-flow today is a massive explosion in central Israel; suggestions this was a missile attack; and against Israel’s nuclear reactor at Dimona. Unconfirmed video suggests this was either intercepted by missile defenses, or hit another target. With Israeli jets striking Syria, this suggests it was an Iranian proxy to mirror the recent Israeli sabotage effort against Natanz. Israeli defense policy is based on the principle of massive deterrence – so the scale of reprisals remains to be seen, and if they in turn lead to escalation. Also recall Prime Minister Netanyahu may have only days left in office: the only way for him to rally the opposition around him as PM would be a true national emergency.

As such, while this could be just another in a long line of tit-for-tat in this region, even QE-addled markets may see this as a tail-risk off. It potentially underlines again how the Suez Canal, even if not directly involved, could again be closed in some geopolitical scenarios, straining supply-chains further; and it may be a knee-jerk positive for energy prices.

The ‘irony’ is that this comes as representatives in Vienna re-heating the 2015 Iran nuclear deal claim “real progress”: which critics claim means the decision has been made to overlook Iran enriching uranium to a 60% level; evidence Tehran secretly broke the terms of the deal before the US walked away; the sunset clauses that mean this is a can-kicking exercise; and Iran’s ballistic missile programme and sponsorship of terrorism.

Yet Reuters now reports a senior US State Department official as saying Important disagreements between the US and Iran persist…with the negotiations still far from conclusion and the outcome uncertain,” and that “The main differences between Washington and Tehran are over what sanctions the US would need to remove and what steps Iran would need to take to resume its obligations to curb its nuclear program.

Which seems to say that nothing much substantive has been agreed at all – unless this is all for show. Logically, if the Iran deal collapses there is no end-point but Iranian submission, which won’t happen; or the use of force, which nobody wants. Yet if the deal is re-struck, sanctions are lifted, and Iranian oil can flow, Iran will have lots more to spend on Russian arms. Perhaps this lead to regional peace: and perhaps it does the complete opposite. Life is complicated in a simple narratives aren’t.

If you think geopolitical tensions end there, you are wrong. An explosion at a Pakistani hotel that hosts the Chinese ambassador has also killed four. It’s unclear who was responsible. Note the China-India-Pakistan triangle, which saw recent violent clashes, where borders are still unresolved, and where China is now reportedly planning a mega-dam that would control the flow of water into India, is arguably only out of the headlines for tactical, not strategic reasons.

And speaking of tactics and strategy, in Canada, Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou has won a three-month delay to her US extradition hearing; and the Australian federal government has used new powers to tear up four agreements signed by Victoria, including one with Iran, one with Syria, and two related to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. “This is another unreasonable and provocative move taken by the Australian side against China,” was the official response. Will Aussie exporters see further Chinese measures in response?  

Meanwhile, as we have daggers drawn in the Middle East, bombs in Pakistan, sabres being rattled between Russia and Ukraine, and continued global recognition of growing tensions over Taiwan, today will see 40 world leaders attend President Biden’s on-line climate summit, where all will no doubt make pledges to fight the climate crisis – rather than each-other.

As Politico, not known for its anti-White House views, notes: Why Biden’s Climate Summit Is Overhyped: And who’s going to hold China accountable for its climate pledges, and how precisely? I will quote just one paragraph from the article:

“[US President] Biden is expected to announce a commitment to cut US emissions in half from 2005 levels by 2030. This will be greeted by huzzahs from elite opinion-makers, but this commitment, and this entire effort, is misbegotten. A key theory driving it is that if the US cuts its emissions, everyone else around the world will as well, preserving the Earth as we know it. But even well-intentioned countries are liable to miss, or to manipulate, their climate targets, whatever they say. And not all countries are well-intentioned.”

Yet we also see Italy’s PM Draghi is talking about a EUR220bn reworking of the Italian economy in a plan which is apparently 200 pages long with 500 charts – so more than two charts per page, which means not much text (luckily, many buzzwords are short). 40% of the funds will go to the poorer south: where, Bloomberg notes, “growth challenges have confounded every government since the country was unified in the mid-19th century.” There will be six overall “missions” with 16 categories of expenditure, including greening Italy’s historic buildings, high-speed rail, and lots of other things now classified as “infrastructure”. Let’s see if that is enough for Super Mario to finally jump-start Italy.

In short, we have the optimism of Build Back Better alongside what may be the pessimism of the rawest of realpolitik – but whoever said that there can only ever be one narrative at a time? Wouldn’t that make trading as easy as central banks have been trying –and still failing–to? Or, more cynically, aren’t both actually part of the same meta-narrative – of systemic failure, and the various possible responses to it?

end
 
 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDIA
Indian hospitals running out of oxygen as deaths top 2,000 on a daily basis
(zerohedge)

Indian Hospitals Running Out Of Oxygen As Daily COVID Deaths Top 2,000 For 1st Time

 
WEDNESDAY, APR 21, 2021 – 07:20 PM

Asia is on track to report the most new COVID cases in April (adjusted for population) than any other continent as India’s “second wave” of COVID-19 is proving even more deadly than its first.

COVID-19 cases are surging around the world, but already, India’s “second wave” of COVID-19 is proving even more deadly than its first. After days of reporting record daily tallies, India reported more than 2,000 COVID deaths in a single day, the health ministry said Wednesday. Coronavirus infections also rose by a record, increasing by 295,041 over the last 24 hours, the data showed. Total deaths reached 182,553, which, to be sure, is merely a fraction of the US’s 568,483 deaths (per Johns Hopkins data). Though experts suspect that India’s numbers are skewed by pervasive undercounting of deaths (while the US and other western countries are suspected of over-counting).

India’s buckling health-care system is badly in need of government relief, and so the Indian government is planning to boost supplies of medical oxygen in coming days, according to the country’s Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan. The government is also reportedly considering applications for oxygen imports from overseas suppliers. The decision follows the deaths of nearly 2 dozen patients in a hospital in Maharashtra, one of the most hard-hit areas of the country, which was caused by a leak in an oxygen tank, the Associated Press reported.

Meanwhile, hospitals in Delhi, the Indian capital, said on Tuesday that they had enough oxygen left for just another eight to 24 hours, while some private clinics had enough for only four or five.

CNN reported that India’s health-care system was “close to collapse”.

“The volume is humongous,” said Jalil Parkar, a senior pulmonary consultant at the Lilavati Hospital in Mumbai, which has had to convert its lobby into an additional Covid ward. “It’s just like a tsunami.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the nation on Tuesday, acknowledging the country’s “very big battle” against Covid-19. He however appealed to states to “use a lockdown as their last option,” even as the capital New Delhi entered its first full day of a week-long lockdown, Jessie Yung and Vedika Sud report.

On Monday, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal warned that failing to halt movement in the city could lead to “tragedy.” When India went into lockdown last March, the mass exodus of migrant workers from the cities became one of the most enduring images of the country’s battle against the virus — and is believed to have helped to spread Covid-19 nationwide.

What epidemiologists are describing as India’s “second wave” is hitting the country like a “tsunami’ as hospitals, graveyards and morgues all run out of space for the sick and the dead.

“Things are out of control,” said Ramanan Laxminarayan, director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy in New Delhi. “There’s no oxygen. A hospital bed is hard to find. It’s impossible to get a test. You have to wait over a week. And pretty much every system that could break down in the health care system has broken down,” he said.

Despite all of this, Indian PM Narendra Modi urged local officials to impose new lockdowns only as a last resort during a national televised address yesterday.

On Monday, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal warned that failing to halt movement in the city could lead to “tragedy.”

“Our healthcare system has reached its limit. It is now in a state of distress. It has not collapsed yet but it is in distress,” Kejriwal said. “Every healthcare system has its limits. No system can accommodate unlimited patients.”

But experts fear it’s too little, too late, as positive patients compete for limited resources and mass gatherings threaten to spread the virus even further. Some families are turning to social media where they’re pleading with the public for donations or supplies – anything that might help secure treatment for an afflicted friend or family member.

As demand for medications and vaccines surges, the Indian government has imposed an export ban. On Wednesday, health officials said it would be at least two months before exports of vaccines would be allowed to move forward, even as India’s Serum Institute moves to raise output to 100M doses of the AstraZeneca by July.

 
 
END
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/INDIA//SMASHES RECORD FOR NEW CASES
(zerohedge)

India Smashes Global Record For New COVID Cases As Hospital Oxygen Tanks Run Dry

BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 07:06 AM

Just yesterday, India reported more than 2,000 COVID-19-linked deaths in a single day, a new record for the world’s second-most-populous country, which is struggling with a brutal resurgence of the virus that reportedly has crematoriums working overtime.

One day later, India has just reported a new disturbing record: According to the Associated Press, India reported a global record of more than 314,000 new infections on Thursday, sending more Indians scrambling for medical care as the country’s health-care system struggles with a critical shortage of hospital beds and oxygen.

Deaths also increased by a record 2,104 (a record for India, though still far short of the record daily death numbers from the US and Brazil).

Source: Johns Hopkins

The 314,835 new cases added in the past 24 hours raise India’s total past 15.9 million cases since the start of the pandemic, the second-highest total in the world next to the US. India has nearly 1.4 billion people.

On Wednesday, the New Delhi High Court ordered the government to divert oxygen from industrial use to hospitals to save lives. And the government of PM Narendra Modi is rushing oxygen tankers to replenish supplies to hospitals.

“You can’t have people die because there is no oxygen. Beg, borrow or steal, it is a national emergency,” the judges said responding to a petition by a New Delhi hospital seeking its intervention.

During a televised address earlier this week, PM Modi begged local leaders to avoid reviving lockdown measures unless it was truly a last resort. Rahul Gandhi, a senior leader of India’s Congress Party, slammed Modi in a tweet, accusing his government of dropping the ball on COVID restrictions. “Modi govt has put us into a situation where a lockdown is going to come and now again we are going to go through the same – migrants going back, no money to the migrants. Modi govt has already broken their legs, now they are going to cut off their heads.”

India’s Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said on Thursday that “demand and supply is being monitored round the clock.” He said in a tweet that to address the exponential spike in demand, the government has increased the quota of oxygen for the worst-hit seven states.

The AP reported that scenes of ambulances rushing from hospital to hospital, desperately trying to find beds for the sick and dying, have once again become common.

“I get numerous calls every day from patients desperate for a bed. The demand is far too much than the supply,” said Dr. Sanjay Gururaj, a doctor at Bengaluru-based Shanti Hospital and Research Center.

“I try to find beds for patients every day, and it’s been incredibly frustrating to not be able to help them. In the last week, three patients of mine have died at home because they were unable to get beds. As a doctor, it’s an awful feeling,” Gururaj said.

India has launched a vaccination drive but only a tiny fraction of the population has had the shots. While the country’s Serum Institute has been lauded as a key cog in the global vaccine rollout, the country this week announced that it would halt vaccine exports for at least two months. Authorities have announced that vaccines will be available to anyone over the age of 18 from May 1 but India won’t have enough shots for the 600 million people who will become eligible, experts say, according to NBC News.

Some experts say new, more infectious virus variants, in particular a “double mutant” variant that originated in India, are largely responsible for the spike in cases but many also blame the politicians. But others blamed Modi and his government for getting “complacent”.

“The second wave is a consequence of complacency and mixing and mass gatherings. You don’t need a variant to explain the second wave,” said Ramanan Laxminarayan of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy in New Delhi.

Epidemiologists have slammed Modi’s government for holding packed political rallies for local elections and allowing a Hindu festival at which millions gathered.

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY  morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.2044 UP .0009 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN  

USA/ YEN 108.08 DOWN 0.055 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3922  DOWN   0.0016  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2599 DOWN .0012 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL  BY 26 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.2005 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE UP 7.82 PTS OR 0.23% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 133.42 PTS OR 0.47%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.73% // EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang UP 133.42 PTS OR 0.47%  

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.82 PTS OR 0.23% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.73%  

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 679.62  POINTS OR 2.38%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1786.00

silver:$26.37-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.574% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.265 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 91.07 DOWN 8 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.40% DOWN 0  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.07%  DOWN 1   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.39%//  DOWN 1 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.76 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 37 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.25% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.01% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2018   UP    .0019 or 2 basis points

USA/Japan: 108.12  UP .085 OR YEN DOWN 9  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3855 DOWN .0076 POUND DOWN 76  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 9 basis points to 1.2495

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (UP).. 6.4914

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.750  (YUAN UP)..6.4897

TURKISH LIRA:  8.30  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.07%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.580 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.272 UP 2 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 91.31 UP 15  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 42.95 PTS OR 0.62% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 124.55 PTS OR 0.82% 

 

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 56.73 PTS OR 0.91% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP  131.50  PTS OR  1.54%  

 

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 237.03 PTS OR 0.98% 

 

WTI Oil price; 61.42 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 65.34 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    76.49  THE CROSS  LOWER BY 1.23 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 123 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.25 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 61.64//

BRENT :  65.55

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.556..down 1 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.231 down  3 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.2013 (DOWN 24   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.02 DOWN .022 (YEN UP 2 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 91.29 UP 14 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3923 down 14  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.32

the Russian rouble 75.47   UP 1.22 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 122 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2613  UP  8 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.25%

The Dow closed down 323.25 POINTS OR 0.95%

NASDAQ closed down 172.79 POINTS OR 1.24%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.66 CLOSED up 1.16

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.172%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

“Way To Go Joe!” – Bonds Bid As Biden Tax Plan Tanks Stocks

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 04:01 PM

A Bloomberg report suggesting Biden will pay for some of his “infrastructure” bill by doubling the capital gains tax for high income Americans sparked some brief unrest in US equity markets today…Nasdaq was the hardest hit on the day but we note that Small Caps were sold most after the Biden headline…

Notably, Small Caps briefly got green for the week (after being down over 4% on Tuesday) before Biden buggered it all up…

This is in line to be the worst week for stocks since mid-Feb.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki explained that President Biden “thinks spending can be on the backs of the wealthiest Americans who can afford it… and our economic team believes that won’t have a negative impact.”

Leaving many to ask…

Small Caps broke back below their 50DMA…

The day started as usual with a short-squeeze but the Biden headlines spoiled that party pretty quick…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks fell to a key support level…

Nasdaq closed back below February’s highs…

COIN’s collapse continues, now down 33% from its listing day highs…

Yesterday’s ridiculous panic puke in VIX (after opex), was destroyed today the fear index spiked back up near 20…

A choppy day in bonds today (albeit another tight range) with the entire curve ending unch aside from the long-end (-1.5bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 30Y Yield closed at its lowest since March 2nd…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar continued its flip-flopping trend lower (up on the day)…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, in crypto land, Ethereum surged to a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Breaking out relative to Bitcoin (to its strongest since Aug 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold slipped lower on the day…

WTI managed very modest gains, bouncing off $61 intraday…

And finally, here is the chart that scares Fauci, Biden, and the Washington mob the most… the rising percentage of the US population that is “immune” either by vaccination or infection…

Source

Tick-tock on those spending bills… this “emergency” is running out of steam

a)Market trading/LAST NIGHT/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//THIS AFTERNOON

 
ii) Market data
So much for the uSA recovery…..jobless benefits climb back above 17 million people though initial claims dip
(zerohedge)

Americans On Jobless Benefits Jumps Back Above 17 Million As Initial Claims Dip

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 08:36 AM

After tumbling to pandemic lows the previous week, thanks to a collapse in California claims (that suggested fraud/systemic issues and not economic improvements), analysts expected some give back last week, but they were wrong as the number of Americans filing for first time jobless claims plunged to 547k – a new pandemic low.

Source: Bloomberg

Texas and New York saw the biggest drops in claimants as Virginia and Indiana saw the biggest rise…

Unfortunately, the number of Americans on some form of jobless benefits rose back above 17 million...

Source: Bloomberg

Maybe they don’t want a job when being paid for couch-sitting pays so well?

end
EXISTING HOME SALES
Existing home sales will decline due to affordability and other factors
(Barraud/zero hedge)

US Existing Home Sales For March Will Decline More Than Expected

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 08:45 AM

Authored by Christophe Barraud,

Later this morning, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release the US Existing Home Sales (EHS) for March. According to the Bloomberg consensus, EHS should decrease by 1.1% MoM to 6.15 million SAAR. It would be the lowest level since August 2020.

EHS will decline more than expected because of technical and fundamental factors:

  • Buyers signed contracts in February (and to a lesser extent in January) for most March sales. Therefore, March EHS were still affected by adverse weather conditions.

  • A larger fall than forecasted would be coherent with the trend in Pending Home Sales (PHS).

  • Local/state reports show that, on a YoY basis, sales rose at a faster pace in March (non-seasonally adjusted: NSA) due to calendar and positive base effects. Adjusting for these biases, it resulted in a drop on a MoM basis (seasonally adjusted: SA).

  • Demand was dampened by a deterioration of housing affordability amid higher mortgage rates and prices.

  • Lack of supply kept weighting on housing transactions.

1. Data construction implies that March figures were still affected by adverse weather conditions

Most of economists never looked at the construction of EHS data which explains a large part of miscalculation. According to the Census Bureau, “the majority of transactions are reported when the sales contract is closed. Most transactions usually involve a mortgage which takes 30-60 days to close. Therefore, an existing home sale (closing) most likely involves a sales contract that was signed a month or two prior.” In other words, most buyers placed their offers in February (and to a lesser extent in January), when weather conditions were unfavorable.

2. A decrease in Existing Home Sales would be coherent with the trend in Pending Home Sales

As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) noted, “The Pending Home Sales Index (PHS), a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing-Home Sales by a month or two.” Therefore, it would be coherent if EHS catch up downward with PHS. However, note that EHS are unlikely to drop as much as PHS (down 10.6% MoM in February).

3. After seasonal adjustment, local/state reports confirm that sales fell in March

On a YoY basis, local/state figures suggest that national existing home sales (non-seasonally adjusted: NSA) are likely to have advanced again in March (9th straight rise). In addition, the pace of increase (NSA) was higher than in February (+8.7% YoY). This is not susprising given the positive base effect (EHS were weak in March 2020). The calendar effect was also supportive with one more business day in March 2021 compared to March 2020. Using my sample of local/state data and a seasonal adjustment factor higher than last year (less favorable), I expect March EHS to decline at a faster pace than anticipated by the consensus (-1.1%e MoM).

4. Demand was dampened by a deterioration of housing affordability

Housing affordability has been under pressure since January. On one hand, mortgage rates started rebounding with the 30-year recently hitting the highest level since June 2020 in late March.

On the other hand, prices kept climbing at a quick rate. In its February report, the NAR showed that “The median existing-home price for all housing types in February was $313,000, up 15.8% from February 2020 ($270,400), as prices rose in every region. February’s national price jump marks 108 straight months of year-over-year gains.” More recently, Redfin highlighted that, in March 2021, “The national median home-sale price hit a record high of $353,000, up 17% from 2020, a record high rate of growth.

5. Lack of supply kept weighting on housing transactions

One of the recent development related to the the housing market has been the collapse in inventory, which pushed prices upward. My sample of local/state reports also pointed to a YoY fall in inventory that was larger than in February (-29.5% YoY). Note that several areas experienced a decline of more than 50%, such as in Minnesota (-54.8% YoY). This pattern was cited as a dampening factor on sales.

end

And now the number announced:

The above author was correct: USA existing home sales tumble for the 2nd straight month as prices soar at a record pace

(zerohedge)

US Existing Home Sales Tumble For 2nd Straight Month As Prices Soar At Record Pace

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 10:07 AM

After unexpectedly plunging in February (exaggerated by weather conditions), analysts expected existing home sales to continue to slide in March as affordability (inventories and rates) squeeze the marginal panic-buyer at record high prices. And just as we warned earlier, existing home sales were worse than expected, tumbling 3.7% MoM (for the second straight month)

Source: Bloomberg

And while sales are up over 12% YoY, the recent plunge in SAAR sales have been dramatic, tumbling to 7-month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

This should not have been a huge surprise as Christophe Barraud warned earlier. Housing affordability has been under pressure since January. On one hand, mortgage rates started rebounding with the 30-year recently hitting the highest level since June 2020 in late March.

On the other hand, prices kept climbing at a quick rate (amid demand, distribution, and construction costs). The median selling price jumped 17.2% from a year ago to $329,100 in March, the highest in records back to 1999.

There were 1.07 million homes for sale last month, down more than 28% from a year earlier.

“We know that home prices have been rising, mortgage rates inching higher, housing affordability becoming much more challenging, however I would say the softening sales activity is not due to demand going away,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said on a call with reporters.

“Demand remains strong, it is simply the severe lack of supply that is holding back sales conditions,” Yun said.

All regions posted sales declines in March, led by an 8% decrease in the West and a 2.9% drop in the South.

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

iv) Swamp commentaries

Religious Leaders Hold Home Depot Hostage Unless Company Meets Demands Over Election Reform

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 02:40 PM

Authored by Karen Townsend via Hot Air (emphasis ours),

The largest company headquartered in Georgia, Home Depot, is being told that if it fails to publicly denounce the state’s voting law reform legislation, it will be boycotted. This isn’t coming from Black Lives Matter, per se. The corporation is being held hostage by religious leaders who demand specific talking points be delivered … or else.

 

(AP Photo/Chuck Burton, File)

Corporations, especially those headquartered in Georgia, have come out against the legislation signed by Governor Kemp. Republicans describe the bill as one that addresses election integrity while Democrats call it a voter suppression law – “Jim Crow 2.0”. Coca-Cola and Delta were among the first to make a point to virtue-signal after the governor signed the bill, only to be exposed as taking part in the process and giving input into the legislation. Both were fine with the law until the governor signed it and grievance activists did their thing. Coke soon discovered that not all of its consumers think that companies should be making policy – that ‘s the job of lawmakers- and now it is trying to clean up the mess it made for itself.

Churches have increasingly played a part in American politics and this is an escalation of that trend. Evangelical churches have shown support for conservative and Republican candidates while black churches get out the vote for Democrats. This threat of bringing a large-scale boycott over state legislation is a hostile action against the corporation. It’s political theatre. Groups like Black Voters Matter, the New Georgia Project Action Fund (Stacey Abrams), and the Georgia NAACP are pressuring companies to publicly voice their opposition and the religious leaders are doing the bidding of these politically active groups.

When SB 241 and HB 531 were working through the legislative process, the groups put pressure on Republican lawmakers and the governor to abandon the voting reform legislation. They also demanded that donations to any lawmakers supporting the legislation be stopped. The Georgia Chamber of Commerce tried to remain bipartisan while still voicing support for voting rights but then caved and expressed “concern and opposition” to some provisions. At the time, several large Georgia companies were targeted by activists, including Aflac, Coca-Cola, Delta Airlines, Home Depot, Southern Company and UPS.

The Georgia Chamber of Commerce previously reiterated the importance of voting rights without voicing opposition against any specific legislation. In a new statement to CNBC, the Georgia Chamber said it has “expressed concern and opposition to provisions found in both HB 531 and SB 241 that restrict or diminish voter access” and “continues to engage in a bipartisan manner with leaders of the General Assembly on bills that would impact voting rights in our state.”

Office Depot came out at the time and supported the Chamber’s statement. The Election Integrity Act of 2021, originally known as Georgia Senate Bill 202, is a Georgia law overhauling elections in the state that was signed into effect by the governor and we know what happened. Office Depot has not delivered for the activists as they demand so now the company faces boycott drama. The religious leaders are taking up where the activist groups left off.

African Methodist Episcopal Bishop Reginald Jackson said the company has remained “silent and indifferent” to his efforts to rally opposition to the new state law pushed by Republicans, as well as to similar efforts elsewhere.

We just don’t think we ought to let their indifference stand,” Jackson said.

The leader of all his denomination’s churches in Georgia, Jackson had a meeting last week with other Georgia-based executives to urge them to oppose the voting law, but said he’s had no contact with Home Depot, despite repeated efforts to reach the company.

Faith leaders at first were hesitant to jump into the boycott game. Now the political atmosphere has changed and they are being vocal. Jackson focused on pressuring Coca-Cola first. After that company went along to get along, before it realized its error, Jackson moved his focus onto other companies.

“We believe that corporations have a corporate responsibility to their customers, who are Black, white and brown, on the issue of voting,” Jackson said. “It doesn’t make any sense at all to keep giving dollars and buying products from people that do not support you.”

He said faith leaders may call for boycotts of other companies in the future.

So, here we are with Home Depot in the spotlight. There are four specific demands leveled at Home Depot in order to avoid further action from the activists.

Rev. Lee May, the lead pastor of Transforming Faith Church, said the coalition is “fluid in this boycott” but has four specifics requests of Home Depot: To speak out publicly and specifically against SB 202; to speak out against any other restrictive voting provisions under consideration in other states; to support federal legislation that expands voter access and “also restricts the ability to suppress the vote;” and to support any efforts, including investing in litigation, to stop SB 202 and other bills like it.

Home Depot, we’re calling on you. I’m speaking to you right now. … We’re ready to have a conversation with you. You haven’t been ready up to now, but our arms are wide open. We are people of faith. People of grace, and we’re ready to have this conversation, but we’re very clear those four things that we want to see accomplished,” May said.

The Rev. Timothy McDonald III, senior pastor of the First Iconium Baptist Church, warned this was just the beginning.

“It’s up to you whether or not, Home Depot, this boycott escalates to phase two, phase three, phase four,” McDonald said. “We’re not on your property — today. We’re not blocking your driveways — today. We’re not inside your store protesting — today. This is just phase one.”

That sounds a lot like incitement, doesn’t it? Governor Kemp is speaking out, he has had enough. He held a press conference to deliver his comments.

“First, the left came for baseball, and now they are coming for Georgia jobs,” Kemp said, referring to MLB’s decision to move this year’s All-Star Game from Atlanta over the new laws. “This boycott of Home Depot – one of Georgia’s largest employers – puts partisan politics ahead of people’s paychecks.”

“The Georgians hardest hit by this destructive decision are the hourly workers just trying to make ends meet during a global pandemic. I stand with Home Depot, and I stand with nearly 30,000 Georgians who work at the 90 Home Depot stores and 15 distribution centers across the Peach State. I will not apologize for supporting both Georgia jobs and election integrity,” he added.

“This insanity needs to stop. The people that are pushing this, that are profiting off of it, like Stacey Abrams and others, are now trying to have it both ways,” Kemp said. “There is a political agenda here, and it all leads back to Washington, D.C.”

The governor is right. The activists are in it to federalize elections, not to look out for Georgians, who will lose jobs over these partisan actions. The law signed by Kemp increases voting rights, it doesn’t limit them.

END

Norfolk Police Officer Fired For Making Anonymous Donation To Kyle Rittenhouse

 
THURSDAY, APR 22, 2021 – 03:45 PM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Sgt. William Kelly, the second highest-ranking official in the Norfolk Police Department’s internal affairs division, has been fired for making an anonymous donation to the defense fund for Kyle Rittenhouse.

The donation (revealed after a security breach of the Christian crowdfunding site GiveSendGo) was accompanied by a note saying that Rittenhouse did “nothing wrong.” Despite the obvious attack on free speech and associational rights, there has been little concern raised in the media or by legal experts. 

Two days ago, a reporter in Utah went to the home of a paramedic to confront him on why he made a $10 donation of Rittenhouse, who is accused of killing two people during violent protests last summer in Wisconsin.

Kelly is an 18-year veteran of the department. He made an anonymous donation and was not publicly speaking as an officer. 

He included a note “God bless. Thank you for your courage. Keep your head up. You’ve done nothing wrong.”

Norfolk City Manager Chip Filer said in a statement that Police Chief Larry Boon agreed the officer violated city and departmental policies against “egregious comments.”

Section 5.1 of the Norfolk Police Manual prohibits any conduct or comments, including off-duty, that would produce a “loss of respect” for the department or bring it into “disrespect.” It is the type of ambiguous standard that is anathema to free speech and associational rights.

Not only was Kelly fired, but Filer and Boon carried out the action in just 72 hours – leaving little time for a defense or full investigation.

If this was an anonymous contribution, it is hard to see how it violates any rule on public commentary. Reports indicate that Kelly was the victim of a security breach. It is also notable that Rittenhouse has not been found guilty and is entitled to a presumption of innocence.  Rittenhouse insists that he was acting in self-defense after he was attacked.  That is obviously a highly contested defense that has divided many. It is ultimately a matter for the court and the jury to decide.

Police officers (and paramedics) should be able to make donations to legal funds without being harassed by the media or fired by their departments. The fact that Kelly added a message anonymously to a legal defense fund does not implicate his department or fellow officers.  If the account of the breach is true, the comment was not intended to be made public.

It would amount to the firing of an officer over a communication intended to be non-public – the same status as a private communication. The question is whether the department would fire an officer who made such a remark privately in an email to  friends that was later hacked.

In my view, the case raises very serious concerns over free speech and associational rights. The Utah case is particularly chilling as the media attempts to embarrass or harass public employees who donate to controversial causes or legal defense funds.

At a minimum, the department should have allowed for a reasonable period of investigation and consideration of these issues before terminating Kelly. Putting aside his 18 years of public service, Kelly remains a citizen with basic rights accorded to him under the First Amendment.

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

The King Report April 22, 2021 Issue 6494 Independent View of the News
  Putin, Addressing Russia, Warns West Not to Cross Red Line: Live Updates
President Vladimir V. Putin, amid protests at home and growing tensions abroad, said Russia’s response would be “asymmetric, fast and tough” if forced to defend its interests.  Putin says any nation that threatens Russia’s security will ‘regret their deeds.’… Russia’s response will be “asymmetric, fast and tough” if it is forced to defend its interests, Mr. Putin said…
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/04/21/world/putin-navalny-protests

 

China warplanes are flying near Taiwan in record numbers
https://www.newsweek.com/china-warplanes-are-flying-near-taiwan-record-numbers-1585277

Rabobank’s Mike Every argues that Putin and China have placed western neoliberalism “Somewhere between this Scylla and Charybdis sails the good ship Liberal World Order, the crew all merrily singing “I am the very model of a Build-Back-Better General.”… So does this portend the end of Build Back Better globalism? Or the end of neoliberal idiocy?…
    Central banks pretend that not only do they not see the asset inflation they are deliberately stoking, they also don’t see the supply-side cost-push inflation…
    The US push for a new liberal world fiscal order is reportedly already in trouble (no!) because Amazon doesn’t want to join the party: ‘Taxation Dies in Darkness’, it seems…

Rabobank: Does This Portend the End of Neoliberal Idiocy
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-does-portend-end-neoliberal-idiocy

Coca-Cola CEO says company will raise prices to offset higher commodity costs
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/coca-cola-will-raise-prices-to-offset-higher-commodity-costs.html

Question for Jerome:  Are Woka-Cola’s price hikes transitory?  If so, how do you define ‘transitory’?  Was the inflation of the ‘70s transitory?  Was the Great Depression transitory?  Are all wars transitory? 

JPMorgan Gets Caught Up in Europe’s Big Soccer League Blunder
The U.S. bank was set to finance the project with $4.8 billion
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-21/jpmorgan-gets-caught-up-in-europe-s-big-soccer-league-blunder

Jamie Dimon can assuage the embarrassment of his blunder by the soothing thought that the Fed and US government stands ready, willing and able to bailout JPM if the bank makes a really big mistake.

Hedge fund assets hit $3.8 trillion after strongest first quarter in 21 years: HFR
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-fund-assets-hit-record-140123628.html

Peak Liquidity – Northman Trader
The amount of liquidity pumped into the markets and the economy in the last year dwarfs anything we’ve seen in history… Enjoy it while it lasts for markets and the economy will soon have to contend with a new concept and that is: Relative tighteningNo, not in the form of Fed tapering or rate increases. Those won’t happen no matter what the data says, central banks have already made that clear. To even discuss it would cause havoc in financial markets…
    To full grasp the enormity of the cumulative size of the most recent intervention amounts: Did you enjoy your $1,400 stimulus check? Yea? What happened to the other $36,100? You didn’t get those? No? Cause for $12.3 trillion the total actually comes to $37,500 for every man, woman and child in the US (population 328M).  That’s how much was just injected into the economy and financial markets over the past 13 months… With an asset appreciation of $21.5T between the 2 groups the top 1% took 93% of the gain… [Tis why the Fed incessantly virtue signals to divert attention from the concentration of wealth that it created.]  https://northmantrader.com/2021/04/20/peak-liquidity/

@Barton_options: Overnight Reverse Repo at NY Fed is taking off.  Ignoring the window-dressing spike on 3/31, this sustained increase signals that the offloading of bank reserves from big banks to government money market funds has finally started.  This is a short-term relief valve for their balance sheet pressure.  Last time this happened, QE stopped 10 months after (Oct 2014).   This time, Fed may need to continue on at least with some twisting (buying 10Y-30Y bonds, while selling Tbills) for yield control purposes, as net interest expense would skyrocket otherwise.  Pressure on bank’s balance sheet is likely to continue on at least into 2022.   https://twitter.com/Barton_options/status/1384570905150451715

Used-car prices are surging. (Jerome, is this record high transitory?) https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/

@charliebilello: Commodity prices over last year… Lumber: +265%, WTI Crude: +210%, Gasoline: +182%, Brent Crude +163%, Heating Oil: +107%, Corn: +84%, Copper: +83%, Soybeans: +72%, Silver: +65%, Sugar: +59%, Cotton: +54%, Platinum: +52%, Natural Gas: +43%, Palladium: +32%, Wheat: +19%, Coffee +13% [Question for Jerome: Are 1-year price surges from panic lows transitory?]

Bloomberg Quicktake (@Quicktake): Dogecoin’s value has rocketed up 18,000% over the past year. What is going on?… https://t.co/8YwlwsoFqp [Questions for Jerome: Is this a bubble?  Is it transitory?]

UK Still Won’t Accelerate Re-Opening Despite COVID Deaths Dropping Below Road Accident Fatalities [It’s about power & control!]
https://summit.news/2021/04/20/uk-still-wont-accelerate-re-opening-despite-covid-deaths-dropping-below-road-accident-fatalities/

GOP Rep @SteveScalise: American citizens can’t return from Mexico without getting a COVID test.  But if you’re an illegal immigrant? Biden will let you enter the country and get on a plane all without a COVID test.  Dems never play by their own rules. Their hypocrisy isn’t even surprising anymore. https://t.co/KvTrTGFI4V

Some US major corporations apparently believe that Dems will enact Soviet-style laws that will ensure that Dems will enjoy one-party rule until a devasting revolution appears.  Some GOP senators are fighting back against big corporations’ Democratic bias.

@abigailmarone: “It’s a lot of these corporations who depend on slave labor or exploited labor… & yet here they want to tell Americans what to do…We’re not taking orders from [them], we’re not going to base our policy around them” – from @HawleyMO w/ @bdomenech last night https://t.co/dTXze1bYfO

@MariaBartiromo: Rubio: US companies hypocrites for working with China https://t.co/IuNPGXXD6C

Taco Bell is testing its own meat alternative ahead of Beyond Meat trial [Is this something new?]
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/21/taco-bell-tests-its-own-meat-alternative-ahead-of-beyond-meat-trial.html

The US Constitution, Section 8, grants Congress the sole authority to coin money and regulate its value.  Congress gave the Fed this ability.  Section 10 denies the states the right to coin or print its own money.  Ergo, crypto currencies created in the US are illegal.  Powell won’t call cryptos ‘money’ because that would indicate that the US Treasury is not performing its Constitutional duty by shutting down cryptos.  Why are cryptos allowed to function?  Because it is a haven of illicit money and it is being surveilled.

Yellen Flags Private Capital’s Role in Climate-Change Battle – Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said private financing, and not just government spending, will be needed tackle the “existential threat” of climate change… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-21/yellen-flags-private-sector-money-role-in-climate-change-battle

Let’s see how many climate change virtue signalers will pony up with their own money!  They can sell their private jets, yachts and some of their huge carbon footprint mansions and donate the money.

China behind another new hack targeting the U.S. government, private companies and the country’s critical infrastructure – NBC News [What will The Big Guy do?  Is he blackmailable?]

@nytimes: Manhattan will no longer prosecute prostitution and unlicensed massage, putting the weight of one of the most high-profile U.S. law enforcement jurisdictions behind the movement to change the criminal justice system’s approach to sex work. https://t.co/MZVTSlRxqe

However, thought crimes, ideological crimes and ‘crimes against the state’ will be avidly prosecuted.

The Postal Service is running a ‘covert operations program’ that monitors Americans’ social media posts – “inflammatory” postings and then sharing that information across government agencies…
https://news.yahoo.com/the-postal-service-is-running-a-running-a-covert-operations-program-that-monitors-americans-social-media-posts-160022919.html

GOP @RepDLesko: The Dems’ so-called “NO BAN Act” would make the elected U.S. President subservient to members of their own cabinet – an unconstitutional move that puts more power in the hands of unelected bureaucrats. [Is Biden that far gone?]

Why is Everything Liberal? – Cardinal Preferences Explain Why All Institutions are Woke
Corporations are woke, meaning left wing on social issues relative to the general population, because institutions are woke… In simple terms, the theory presented here says liberals win because they care about politics more… [Because their existence and sustenance depend on big government benefits and/or they (politicians, journalists, academics) pine to exert influence or power over others?]
    Noah Carl… has put together data showing liberals are in their personal lives more intolerant of conservatives than vice versa across numerous dimensions in the US and the UK…
https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/why-is-everything-liberal

It is imperative to realize that communists have been trying to destroy the US by dividing it via racial and class hatred for almost 100 years.  The movement has more gravitas now because US citizens, institutions, and corporations unwittingly or wittingly (many bought by China) are now complicit in the hate & division.  Please note the communistic backgrounds of some of the hierarchy in BLM and Antifa.

AOC now blames ‘racial injustice’ for the climate crisis https://trib.al/p9DQYZx

Chilling bodycam video shows Ohio officer shooting, killing teen as she was charging another girl with knife   https://www.foxnews.com/us/officer-involved-shooting-columbus-ohio-1-dead

Columbus police shooting 911 caller said someone ‘trying to stab us’ before officer killed knife-swinging teen https://www.foxnews.com/us/columbus-police-shot-16-year-old-knife-911-calls-body-cameras

White House Condemns Columbus Police Shooting of Teenager with a Knife as Racist – “We know that police violence disproportionately impacts Black and Latino people and communities and that black women and girls, like black men and boys, experience higher rates of police violence,” the statement said without evidence…. https://thefederalist.com/2021/04/21/white-house-condemns-columbus-police-shooting-of-teenager-with-a-knife-as-racist/

The Actual Number of Unarmed Black Men Shot and Killed by Police Every Year Will Blow Liberals’ Minds [For 2019, Mapping Violence says 27; WaPo says 11]

  • 51% White, 26% Black, 19% Hispanic, 2% Asian, and 2% Native American victims
  • 23% of victims showed signs of mental illness…
  • 91% of victims were determined to be armed, with objects ranging from toy weapons to pepper spray to tasers to guns…

https://beckernews.com/3-the-data-prove-there-is-no-epidemic-of-unarmed-black-men-shot-by-police-38691/

Obama consiglieri @ValerieJarrett: A Black teenage girl named Ma’Khia Bryant was killed because a police officer immediately decided to shoot her multiple times in order to break up a knife fight. Demand accountability.  Fight for justice.

@KatieDaviscourt: NBA player LeBron James @KingJames threatens police officer who shot a black teen attempting to kill another black teen with a knife, saving her life. [“You’re next ⏳” with cop’s pic Tweet]  https://twitter.com/KatieDaviscourt/status/1384973152871194624

Lebron James Deletes Horrific Tweet Threatening Police Officer (We have the screen shots) Who Shot Mikayah Bryant – If this was a conservative…, big tech would immediately ban them… https://thedcpatriot.com/lebron-james-deletes-horrific-tweet-threatening-police-officer-we-have-the-screen-shots-who-shot-mikayah-bryant/

Jason Whitlock: ‘LeBron James’ Is Using ‘Racial Division’ to ‘Reshape America’ Like ‘Communist China’    https://dailycaller.com/2021/04/21/jason-whitlock-lebron-james-communist-china/

@EricMMatheny: What if the cop did nothing? He would be accused of allowing a young black girl to die. The cop was damned either way.

@Heminator: So weird this isn’t national news! I wonder why. “Cincinnati police said a 13-year-old girl has been charged with murder in the stabbing death of another 13-year-old girl on Monday.”
https://amp.cincinnati.com/amp/7298533002

Psaki cuts off reporter when pressed on Biden’s culpability for ‘systemic racism’
The Post asked Psaki at her daily press briefing about Biden’s own role in establishing federal laws in the 1980s and ’90s that disproportionately jailed minorities… Biden authored the 1994 crime law that imposed a mandatory sentence of life without parole for a third serious drug conviction — sending some people to prison for life for marijuana dealing… https://trib.al/UtE0fiH

@ForAmerica: The news media loves to divide. They love race wars. They thrive on spreading hate…

@WAVY_News: A high-ranking Norfolk Police officer who was found donating to the defense fund of Kyle Rittenhouse has been fired from the police department. https://bit.ly/3tBOihL

@charliekirk11: People are getting fired from their jobs & doxxed at home for donating to the Kyle Rittenhouse defense fund but when Kamala Harris tells her supporters to bail out Minnesota rioters, she gets elected Vice President.

Ann Coulter: THANKS, JURORS! YOU’RE SAFE NOW. WE AREN’T.
The day before Chauvin’s case went to the jury, a defense witness — a witness! — had his former home in California vandalized with pigs’ blood and a pig’s head… we are headed back to the 1960s in terms of crime. Already, 2020 marked the largest year-to-year increase in murders in the history of the country. In Minneapolis alone, the murder rate doubled. Get ready for a lot more violent crime, emboldened criminals and less aggressive police… The jurors were worried about their own personal security. It was your life or theirs, and they decided the better part of valor was to sacrifice yours… https://anncoulter.com/2021/04/21/thanks-jurors-youre-safe-now-we-arent/

@TPostMillennial: Jeff Bezos had one of his “minions”, a former classmate of Tucker Carlson, call around to other former classmates and ask if Tucker had “done anything naughty at the age of 19”.
https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1384689469329186816

Stalinist bullying is endemic in the USA.  Question for Jerome:  Is this despicable tactic transitory?

Chicago police may soon need supervisor’s OK to chase suspects on foot, mayor says https://trib.al/2ydxfly

@kimKBaltimore: Just wanted to let everyone know Baltimore City is down 700 police officers. 2 precincts will be closed due to shortage. It will be a deadly year. RIP to all of the victims in advance.

The practice of decriminalizing crime, even though it greatly increases crime, is proliferating in the USA.
Question for Jerome:  Is this movement transitory?

“Get The F*** Out of New York!”: BLM Protesters Demand White Restaurant Owners Leave the City https://t.co/GpXevcGBEs

@JesseKellyDC: Fleeing America’s urban hellholes and leaving them to the communists isn’t “giving up”.  It’s called tactical retreat and any historical general worth his salt knew it was often a NECESSARY part of combat if one wants to win the war.  It was George Washington’s specialty.

Rep. Vernon Jones: White liberals have destroyed the black community, and it’s time for the black community to destroy white liberals.  Why I’m running against [GOP] Gov. Kemp  https://t.co/kibT7w6rsO

Lawmakers reveal — and dispute – FBI conclusion about 2017 baseball field shooting
“Much to our shock that day, the FBI concluded that this was a case of the attacker seeking suicide by cop,” Wenstrup said. “Director, you want suicide by cop, you just pull a gun on a cop. It doesn’t take 136 rounds. It takes one bullet. Both the DHS and the (Office of the Director of National Intelligence) published products labeling this attack as a domestic violent extremism event, specifically targeting Republican members of Congress. The FBI did not.”… [The FBI is abjectly politicized!]
    That day, a lone gunman, James Hodgkinson, unloaded dozens of rounds at GOP lawmakers practicing on an Alexandria, Va., field for the annual congressional baseball game. After asking one lawmaker whether the team was the Republicans or Democrats [and the FBI doesn’t know the motivation!?!], Hodgkinson returned to his van — which had been stationed outside the field for weeks — pulled out two firearms and began shooting at the team, narrowly missing Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Miss.) before hitting Scalise in the hip, which nearly led to him bleeding to death on the field. Scalise required multiple surgeries and weeks in the hospital before recovering and returning to Congress… He compared the attack to the Jan. 6 mob assault by thousands of Trump supporters on the Capitol, calling Hodgkinson’s rampage an “insurrection” that he said was of equal concern. Despite subsequent notes of agreement from committee Democrats, Wenstrup accused Democrats of being unconcerned about the attack…
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/21/2017-baseball-field-shooting-fbi-conculsion-483993

@CortesSteve: Good morning! Happy birthday to Queen Elizabeth II, born today [Wednesday] in 1926 in Mayfair as Elizabeth Alexandra Mary Windsor. Called “Lilibet” by her family, she’s the longest-reigning British monarch ever. 

end

I WILL SEE YOU FRIDAY NIGHT

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