MAY 4//GOLD DOWN $14.80 TO $1776.90//SILVER FALLS 45 CENTS TO $26.45//BOTH METALS FALL DUE TO A BIS ORCHESTRATED RAID TODAY//GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX RISES TO 3.56 TONNES//SILVER OZ STANDING FALLS TO 37.33 MILLION OZ//ANOTHER ONE MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE COMEX//NO GOLD ENTERS THE COMEX VAULTS//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES//VACCINE UPDATES//SAM ZELL, ANTI GOLD FOR MANY YEARS BUT THE WORLD’S BEST REAL ESTATE INVESTOR NOW BUYS GOLD AS AN INFLATION HEDGE//THE CHINA HUSTLE EXPLAINED//EU REJECTS EU-CHINA INVESTMENT PAC//INFLATION WATCH: DANIEL LACALLE//USA TRADE DEFICIT RISES TO 74.4 BILLION DOLLARS//FACTORY ORDERS DISAPPOINT//DINESH D’SOUZA A MUST READ: THE FBI MUST BE DEMOLISHED// SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD:$1776.90   DOWN $14.80   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$26.45 DOWN  $0.45   London spot price ( cash market)

your data.

 
 
 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1779.40 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $26.50//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

 

 

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINIUM  $1236.82 UP $1.76

PALLADIUM: 2986.47 UP $7.81  PER OZ.* early this morning at 4 am palladium hit a new record: 3018.00

 

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagle

James Mc late this afternoon… May 3

Coin premiums to spot widening- Silver Eagles look like around 50%+ to spot. Gold Eagles +$170 to spot. How long can they keep this derivatives charade going?

Jim McShirley

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today  7/9

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,791.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/03/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 05/05/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 2
661 C JP MORGAN 7
737 C ADVANTAGE 9
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 9 9
MONTH TO DATE: 734

ISSUED: 0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped: 0

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY. CONTRACT: 9 NOTICE(S) FOR 900 OZ  (0.02799 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  734 NOTICES FOR 73,400 OZ  (2.2830 tonnes) 

SILVER//MAY CONTRACT

 

228 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,140,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  :6136 for 30,680,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $56,214   DOWN 1208 DOLLARS

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$54,453 DOWN 2969 DOLLARS  

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:   A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.

 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE B OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD: 1,018.20 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER  DOWN 40 CENTS

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//  

 

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHDRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULTS. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

567.481  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 166.56 down $1.25 OR  0.74%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 24.58 down $0.38 OR 1.52%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 9070 CONTRACTS FROM 161,5592 UP TO 170,639, AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE GAIN IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE $0.99 ADVANCE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON MONDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO  HUGE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//GOOD REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A HUGE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A HUGE  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4400,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE: MAY:  0, JUNE: 0 JULY 4400 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 4400 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM! SILVER IS IN BACKWARDATION AND AS SUCH THE DANGER TO OUR BANKERS IS LONDONERS WILL PURCHASE CHEAPER FUTURES METAL OVER HERE AND THEN TAKE DELIVERY.

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 33 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***(5THHIGHEST RECORDED STANDING FOR SILVER)

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT (3RD HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC. (4TH HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

2021

60 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.935 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL

37.330 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY 

 

MONDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE
UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT ROSE BY $0.99). OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS  WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 13,470 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  THE GAIN WAS DUE TO i) SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  iii) GOOD REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iv)  A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A VERY STRONG INITIAL  SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 37.700 MILLION OZ AND THEN FALLING TO 37.330 MILLION OZ ON DAY 3, v) HUGE COMEX OI GAIN //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

 

MAY

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF A MAY:

4870 CONTRACTS (FOR 2 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 4870 CONTRACTS) OR 24.350 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2435 CONTRACTS OR 12.175 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY: 24.35 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: : 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

APRIL: 84.730 MILLION OZ  (SILVER IS NOW IN SEVERE BACKWARDATION AND THUS DRAMATICALLY FEWER ISSUANCE OF EFP’S)

MAY: 24.35 MILLION OZ. (SILVER IS STILL IN SEVER BACKWARDATION)

 

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE  INCREASE COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 9070, WITH OUR $0.99 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///MONDAY .THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 4400 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 13,470 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  $0.99 RISE IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY// SOME BANKER SHORTCOVERING/  AND A VERY STRONG INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY. (37.770 MILLION OZ) FOLLOWED BY A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE TO SOME LONGS IN ORDER TO RECEIVE AN EXTRA HUGE FIAT BONUS..NOW DOWN TO 37.330 MILLION OZ) 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  4400 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A HUGE SIZED INCREASE OF 9070 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.99 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $26.85//MONDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW MAY.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 228 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,140,000, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE SILVER IN BACKWARDATION (INDICATING SCARCITY), WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 10,913 CONTRACTS TO 475,373,AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE  OF $23.00///COMEX GOLD TRADING//MONDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 14,051 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  WE ALSO HAD A STRONG  INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 3.530 TONNES TO WHICH WE HAD A GOOD QUEUE JUMP OF 500 OZ ON DAY NO 3 AND NOW 3.567 TONNES ARE STANDING. THIS FOLLOWED A STRONG APRIL AT 95.331 TONNES. 

 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $23.00 WITH RESPECT TO  MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 14,051 OI CONTRACTS (43.71 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3138 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  AND JUNE:  3138  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3956.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 475,373. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 14,051 CONTRACTS: 10,913 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3138 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 14,051 CONTRACTS OR 43.71 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3138) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI  (10,913 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  14,051  CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 3.530 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER QUEUE JUMP ON DAY 3 OF 500 OZ//NEW STANDING FOR MAY: 3.567 TONNES 

3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) HUMONGOUS COMEX OI GAIN AND 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND ….ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN GOLD PRICE TRADING MONDAY//$23.00!!.

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON MAY  1)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE.

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 
 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 
 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 7,094, CONTRACTS OR 709,400 oz OR 22.06 TONNES (2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3547 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 22.06 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 22.06/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.626% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        22.30 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A POWERFUL SIZED 9070 CONTRACTS FROM 161,569 UP TO 170,639 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  

 

EFP ISSUANCE 4400 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MAY: 0 AND JUNE: 0, JULY 4400: 0ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4400 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 9070 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 440O OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC  SIZED GAIN OF 13,470 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 67.350 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.99 GAIN IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge + OTHER COMMENTARIES

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED MAY DOWN 28.04 PTS OR .81%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 199.60 PTS OR  0.70%     /The Nikkei closed down 244.34 pts or .83%  //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.50%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.4738 /Oil DOWN TO 65.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED   //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4738. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4877   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 
 
 
 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA VS USA//

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A GIANT SIZED 10,913 CONTRACTS TO 475,373 MOVING CLOSER TO  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS HUGE COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN OF $23.00 IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADINGWE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (3138 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.  

WE HAVE ALSO  LATELY WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED /FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 3138 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;:  0, JUNE:  3138 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3138  CONTRACTS .(DESPITE THE STRONG BACKWARDATION IN GOLD FOR JUNE/AUG VS SPOT)

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 14,051  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3138 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 10,913 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY(3.567) WHICH FOLLOWED  (95.331 TONNES) IN APRIL, WHICH FOLLOWED MARCH:  (30.205 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $23.00)., AND  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS NET GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,169 CONTRACTS.  THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 43.71 TONNES TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (3.567 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 14,051 CONTRACTS OR  1,405,100 OZ OR  43.71  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  475,373 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 47.53 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1478 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1478/2200 OR 67.18% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:245,176 contracts// volume /better //raid//volumes used in raid today   //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  217,726 contracts//  fair 

//most of our traders have left for London

 

MAY 4 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAY COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
 
 
100,01 OZ
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz

.

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
nil OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
9  notice(s)
900 OZ
(0.02799 TO
No of oz to be served (notices)
413 contracts
(41300oz)
 
1.2846 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
734 notices
73400 OZ
2.2830 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 
 
 
total deposit:  nil oz    
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account
 
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS: nil  oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 1 withdrawals…..
 
i) Out of Delaware: 100.01 oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
total withdrawals: 100.01  oz
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had  0  kilobar transactions (0 out of 1 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  0// 

 

 
 
 
 
 

The front month of MAY registered a total of  422 CONTRACTS for a LOSS of 28 contracts. We had 33 notices filed on Friday so we gained 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of May. This is very unusual they we are getting queue jumping so early  in the delivery cycle on day 3.

 
 
 
JUNE GAINED 8270 CONTRACTS UP TO 376,362..(AND THIS IS THE FRONT MONTH THAT WE WILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO!)
 
JULY GAINED 53 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 79.
 
AUGUST GAINED 1877 CONTRACTS UP TO 53,685

We had 9 notice(s) filed today for  900   oz

FOR THE MAY 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  9  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 7 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (734) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAY:  422 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 9 x 100 oz per contract equals 114,700 OZ OR 3.567 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (734) x 100 oz  422x OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (9} x 100 oz which equals 114,700 oz standing OR 3.567 TONNES in this  active delivery month of MAY.

We gained an additional 500 oz which will stand for delivery at the comex.  They refused to morph into London based forwards and as such their forfeited a fiat bonus.

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

351,292.365 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.92 TONNES

300,622.584, oz  JPM  9.35 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

54,419.138, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.690 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,260,936.250 oz                                     70.32 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 474.05 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 3.567 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  17,501,868.257 oz or 546.51 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,260,936.250 oz or 70.32 tonnes
 
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,240,932.0 (474,05 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,240,932.0 (474.05 tonnes)
 
total eligible gold: 17,015,428.038 oz   (529.25 tonnes)
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 34,517,296.295 oz or 1,073.63 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  947.29 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
MAY 4/2021
 
 

 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//MAY

MAY. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,083,458.187 oz
 
CNT
Delaware
HSBC
Manfra 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
 
oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
19,886.430 oz
 
 
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
whatever enters the comex faults
leaves
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
228
 
CONTRACT(S)
(1,140,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
2431 contracts
 12,155,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  6136 contracts

 

30,680,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer 
 

total dealer deposits: nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposit into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into Delaware: 19,886,439,  oz

 
 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 187.20 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.97% of all official comex silver. (187.2 million/360.190 million

total customer deposits today 19,886.430   oz

we had 4 withdrawals

i) Out of CNT:  420,137.3 oz

ii) Out of Delaware:  9,964.897 oz

iii) Out of HSBC:  644,752.270 oz

iiii) Out of Manfra:  608,603.720 oz

 

 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals1,083,458.187   oz

We had 3 adjustments:   all dealer to customer

i) Brinks:  15,275.09 oz

ii) HSBC:  599,225.270 oz

iii) Manfra: 2,458,955.903 oz

 


 

 

 
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 116.932 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  360.190 million oz

a net 1.050 million oz leaves the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
 
 
 

May fell in contracts, losing 877 contracts to stand at  1558 contracts.  We had 785 notices filed on MONDAY so we LOST 92 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 460,000 oz of silver will not stand delivery in this very active delivery month of May.

They  morphed into London based forwards and received as well a handsome fiat for not standing on this side of the pond..

 

June gained 131 contracts up to 1921.

July gained a strong 8786 contracts up to 142,831 contracts

 
No of notices filed today:  228
 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  6136 x 5,000 oz = 30,680,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (1558) and the number of notices served upon today 228 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the MAY standings for silver for the APRIL/2021 contract month: 6136 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY 1558x)  – number of notices served upon today (228) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 37,330,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MAY MONTH.

We lost  460,000 oz of silver standing for delivery.

the big question: where is the 100 million oz of silver that Sprott has sought? 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 76,680 CONTRACTS // volume good// 

 

FOR YESTERDAY  84,572  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ very good//

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO +0.68% (MAY 4/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO –1.34% to NAV:   (MAY 4/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/0.68% (MAY 4/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/)

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

 

NAV $18.92 TRADING $18.17//NEGATIVE 3.96

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

MAY 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.20 TONNES.

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $23.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1017.04 TONNES./

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $0.20 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.04 TONNES.

APRIL 29//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES.

APRIL 28/WITHGOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES.

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES.

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.30 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD UP $14.40 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESSTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.04 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.25 TODAY A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.2 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.66 TONNES.

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD UP $13.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.86 TONNES

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD UP $29.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.21 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.86 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.07 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.07 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.07 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.67 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.02 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP $16.90 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF .36 TONNES FROM THE GLD//NVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.69 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.05 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES.

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD UP $13.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD… A DEPOSIT OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.62 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH//25: WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES//GOLD REST AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $7.75 TODAY://A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.42 TONNES OF GOLD: THIS GOLD IS BEING RETURNED TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND ON A PHONY LEASE SCAM//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.36 TONNES.

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

MAY 4 / GLD INVENTORY 1018.20 tonnes

LAST;  1052 TRADING DAYS:   +84.23 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 952 TRADING DAYS// +  268.75TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 99 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ

APRIL 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY; No CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY:: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27./WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.687 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 26/  WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.260 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.687

APRIL 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 278,000 OZ INTO THE SLV.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.847 MLLION OZ/

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWLA OF 3.619 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY REST AT 569.569 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.188 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIST OF 1.114MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INENTORY RESTS AT 573.188 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.671 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.074 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 16.WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.113 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.745 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 7 /WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ. 

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 256,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ

APRIL 1.WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.898 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 417,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY REST AT 579.022 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.042 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER AT 5.20 PM:  1.949 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.253 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 582.596 MILLION OZ

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ./

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY,TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.486 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLVAT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 2.599 MILLION OZ WITHRAWWAL AT 5:20 ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/ (TOTAL SILVER LEAVING 4.085 MILLION OZ)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

MAY 4/2021
567.481 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)Lawrie williams:

-END-

EGON VON GREYERZ//MATHEW PEIPENBURG

Gold Is Laughing At Powell

 
 

OR

Peter Schiff..

Peter Schiff: CPI Is A Lie!

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 11:40 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

We’ve been talking a lot about the specter of inflation. Despite the Fed’s assurances not to worry because any price increases we’re seeing are transitory, some people are indeed worried. A former JP Morgan managing director warned about inflation and echoed Peter Schiff’s view that the central bank is powerless to fight it.

And we’re seeing rising prices all over the place, from the grocery store to the gas station. Even the government numbers flash warning signs. But as Peter Schiff explains in this clip from an interview with Jay Martin, it’s probably even worse than we realize because the government cooks the numbers when it calculates CPI.

The monthly rises in CPI through the first quarter show an upward trend. The CPI in January was up 0.3%. It was up 0.4% in February. And now it’s up 0.6% in March. That totals a 1.013% increase in Q1 alone. The question is does this really reflect the truth about inflation? Peter doesn’t think it does.

The government always makes changes to their methods of measuring things, whether it’s GDP, or inflation, or unemployment. And they always tweak the numbers to produce a better result as a report card.

Imagine if students in a school had the ability to change the metrics by which they were graded or the methodology the teacher used to calculate their grades.

Would it surprise anybody that all of a sudden they started getting more As and Bs and fewer Cs and Ds? The government always wants to make the good stuff better, like economic growth, and the bad stuff better, like unemployment or inflation. So, they want to find ways to make those numbers little and the good numbers big.”

The CPI is calculated by analyzing the price of a “basket of  goods.” The makeup of that basket has a big impact on the final CPI number. According to WolfStreet, 10.9% of the CPI is based on durable goods (computers, automobiles, appliances, etc.). Nondurable goods (primarily food and energy) make up 26.6% of CPI. Services account for the remaining 62.5% of the basket. This includes rent, healthcare, cellphone service etc.)

The things the government includes and excludes from the basket can make a profound difference in that final CPI number.

Back in 1998, the government significantly revised the CPI metrics. Even the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) admitted the changes were “sweeping.”

According to the BLS, periodic changes to the CPI calculation are necessary because “consumers change their preferences or new products and services emerge. During these occasions, the Bureau reexamines the CPI item structure, which is the classification scheme of the CPI market basket. The item structure is a central feature of the CPI program and many CPI processes depend on it.”

In 1998, the BLS followed the recommendations of the Boskin Commission. It was appointed by the Senate in 1995. Initially called the “Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index,” its job was to study possible bias in the computation of the CPI. Unsurprisingly, it determined that the index overstated inflation — by about 1.1% per year in 1996 and about 1.3% prior to 1996. The 1998 changes to CPI were meant to address this “issue.”

As Peter pointed out, there is a lot of geometric weighting, substitution and hedonics built into the calculation. The government can basically create an index that outputs whatever it wants.

I think this period of ‘Oh wow! We have low inflation!’ It’s not a coincidence that it followed this major revision into how we calculate it.”

Peter said there is a bit of irony in government officials and central bankers constantly complaining about “not enough inflation.”

They’re the ones that are cooking the books to pretend that inflation is lower than it really is. Because what they’re really trying to do is get the go-ahead to produce more inflation, which is printing money.”

Peter said the CPI will never reveal the true extent of rising prices.

And there are other things that hide inflation. For instance, shrinking packaging so there is less product sold at the same price, or substituting lower quality ingredients, or requiring consumers to assemble items themselves.

They find different ways to lower the quality and not increase the price, and I’m sure that the government is not picking up on any of that. If the quality improves, yeah, yeah, they calculate that. But they probably ignore all the circumstances where the quality is diminished.”

The bottom line is we can’t trust CPI to tell us the truth about inflation.

END

OR

 
PAM AND RUSS MARTENS

Wall Street On Parade

-END-

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

This will be gold for gold and silver as Israel investors will be able to trade gold on the big Dubai gold and Commodities exchange

Solomon/Times of Israel/Jerusaelm

 


Israeli investors can now trade on Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange

 


 


 


By Shoshanna Solomon

The Times of Israel, Jerusalem

Sunday, May 2, 2021

The Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange said Sunday it has received a permit from the Israel Securities Authority that will allow qualified Israeli stock market traders and investors to become members of the exchange and to use its trading services and platforms.

Once members, Israeli players will also be able to act as market makers on the exchange’s platform. Market makers are firms or individuals who provide both bids for and offers of securities.

The move allows the DGCX Group to offer to Israeli investors its global products and services, including futures and options contracts for precious metals, energy, equities, and currency sectors as it seeks to expand its role in the Middle East as a growing exchange for the trading of derivatives.

 


 


 


… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-investors-can-now-trade-on-dubai-g…

end

Another state turns to sound money

(CortezMoney/MNNews)

Arkansas ends sales taxes on gold and silver; more states may follow

 By JP CortezMoney

Metals News ServiceMoney Metals Exchange, Eagle, IdadoMonday, May 3, 2021

 


 


 


By signing sound money legislation today, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has officially ended sales taxation on gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bullion and coins, thereby setting an example for legislators in New Jersey, Maine, Ohio, and Tennessee, who are considering similar measures in their own states.Arkansas’ Senate Bill 336, introduced by state Sen. Mark Johnson and Rep. Delia Haak, enjoyed tremendous popularity, passing through the state Senate 30-1 before passing the state House unanimously, 93-0.

Backed by the Sound Money Defense League, Money Metals Exchange, and grassroots activists and coin dealers in Arkansas, Senate Bill 336 will allow Arkansas investors, savers, and small businesses to acquire precious metals without being slapped with sales and use taxes.

The Arkansas sales tax exemption takes effect on July 1.

Meanwhile, similar bills are pending in Ohio, Maine, Tennessee, and New Jersey as the national backlash against taxing constitutional money continues.

Including Arkansas, 40 U.S. states now fully or partially exempt gold and silver from sales taxes. …

 


 


 


… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2021/05/03/arkansas-ends-sales-taxes-on…

end

Inflation running rampant in Venezuela as the government triples its minimum wage by 289%.  The equivalent is $2.40 per hour enough to buy a kg. of cheese and milk.

(Reuters)

Venezuela nearly triples its minimum wage as hyperinflation enforces poverty

 


 


 


But though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy.
 
Venezuela Raises Minimum Wage in Fourth Year of Hyperinflation

 


 


From Reuters

Monday, May 3, 2021

 


 


 


The Venezuelan government increased the monthly minimum wage by 289%, an official said on Saturday, moving from the equivalent of 64 U.S. cents to about $2.40 at the exchange rate estimated by the country’s central bank.

Venezuela’s economy is in its fourth year of hyperinflation and its seventh year of recession, and has been slowly and disorderly undergoing a dollarization since 2019

Labor Minister Eduardo Pinate said the minimum salary would increase from 1.8 million bolivars to 7 million bolivars as of this month.

Pinate made the announcement at a Labor Day event broadcast on state television, adding that the food bonus state workers are slated to receive would also increase.

The new base income of $2.40 plus the food bonus now represents $3.50, with which Venezuelans can buy a kilogram of cheese and a liter of milk. …

 


 


 


https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-raises-minimum-wage-fou…… For the remainder of the report:https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-raises-minimum-wage-fou.
 
end

iii) Other physical stories:

John Adams…

Dear Colleagues of the Silver Market,

I write to you about the ongoing saga relating to Kitco Metals Incorporated (Kitco).

Now that I have dealt with the allegation of Copyright Infringement by Kitco’s Australia’s Lawyers (Dentons), I now move towards the substantial issue of the Cease and Desist order.

On Saturday, 1 May 2021, I received a response letter from Kitco’s Australian lawyers (after my 24 hour deadline) with additional information relating to their Cease and Desist order of 29 April 2021.

Despite being a Saturday, Dentons demanded that I comply with Kitco’s demands within 24 hours. In response, I sent Dentons the attached letter this morning (Monday, 3 May 2021) requesting more time to consider their “cease and desist” order. I am now working through this.

Nevertheless, in the case that Kitco demands that we proceed to litigation I need to be ready for the discovery process. This issue I suspect with Kitco is whether their unallocated/pool allocated accounts are 100% backed with physical silver. In some of the tweets which are in dispute, I called Kitco out for running a fractional reserve synthetic program. Kitco disputes my tweets calling them false and baseless.

The purpose of discovery will be to solicit and uncover the nature of their synthetic unallocated/pool allocated silver program. During discovery I will be able to subpoena a whole host of records and witnesses from Kitco. In a recent interview that I participated in with Jim Sinclair and Bill Holter at JS Mindset, Jim said that exposure of a fractional reserve synthetic program through a legal discovery process will be critical to exposing the real truth of the silver market.

Given this, I am now interested to prepare what a comprehensive subpoena/discovery document and witness checklist will look like.

I would greatly appreciate it if you would provide me with your thoughts on what records or witnesses should I subpoena from Kitco (if we get to this stage). I will collate your responses with the thoughts from my team here in Australia.

Many thanks for any assistance which you may be able to provide.

yours faithfully,
John Adams

end

Sam Zell Buys Gold With Inflation ‘Reminiscent of the 1970s’

May 4

(Bloomberg) — Billionaire investor Sam Zell is seeing inflation everywhere, and has bought gold as a hedge — something he says he used to knock others for doing.

“Obviously one of the natural reactions is to buy gold, he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It feels very funny because I’ve spent my career talking about why would you want to own gold? It has no income, it costs to store. And yet, when you see the debasement of the currency, you say, what am I going to hold on to?”

Zell, 79, said he’s concerned not only about the U.S. dollar but other countries printing money as well, and questioned whether inflation will be transitory, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated last week.

“Oh boy, we’re seeing it all over the place,” Zell said of inflation. “You read about lumber prices, but we’re seeing it in all of our businesses. The obvious bottlenecks in the supply chain arena are pushing up prices. It’s very reminiscent of the 70s.”

While gold is an attractive investment, opportunities in fossil fuels are not, said Zell, who in 2019 agreed to set up a joint venture with Tom Barrack Jr.’s Colony Capital Inc. to invest in oil and gas.

“Right now, oil and gas is not priced to reflect the risk of what’s going on, whether it be in the EV world, a climate changed world,” he said. “As recently as a couple of years ago I thought the risk- reward ratio was appropriate. It’s clearly become very inappropriate as our political situation has changed.”

Zell also said he’s concerned about renewable energy undermining the reliability of power grids, pointing to the recent blackouts in California and Texas.

In real estate, there are plenty of questions about what demand will look like over the next couple years in the office, lodging and retail sectors, Zell also said in the interview.

“Everybody’s worried about going back to work and office-space occupancy. I don’t think that’s really an issue,” he said. “The problem is that, before the pandemic, we were dealing with an oversupply of office space. Obviously the pandemic hasn’t reduced that oversupply and has probably encouraged it accordingly.”

Stores also present challenges, he said, given that the U.S. already had more retail space per person than the rest of the world before Covid-19, and shoppers increased their reliance on e-commerce while stuck at home during the pandemic.

“Street retail today is like a falling knife, and you don’t know how far it goes down,” he said. While that “doesn’t mean the best malls aren’t going to perform,” there’s a “huge amount of real estate that’s going to have to be reprogrammed in one form or another.”

The challenges faced by hotels are more of a temporary problem over the next three to four years, Zell said. “We will see a slow recovery in business travel,” he said. “In the interim period of time, it’d going to be a slow recovery, and hotels are big overhead things and running them at less-than-optimum occupancy is a very expensive scenario.”

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN at 6.4738 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.4877   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 28.04 PTS OR .81% 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 199.60 PTS OR 0.70% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 244.34 PTS OR .83% 

 

3. Europe stocks  ALL MIXED 

USA dollar index  DOWN TO 91.28/Euro FALLS TO 1.2011

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.095/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.28/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 65.64 and Brent: 68.36

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.20%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 0.88% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.46%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.08: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.00

3k Gold at $1783.00 silver at: 26.74   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble  UP 3/100 in roubles/dollar) 74.96

3m oil into the 65 dollar handle for WTI and 68 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.28 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9142 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0980 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.18%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.606% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.285%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  DOWN  TO 8.33.. DEADLY

Futures Slide, Tech Weak On Rising Inflation Fears

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 07:52 AM

For the second day, US equity futures traded in a narrow range, dipping during the muted Asian session where markets in Japan, China and Thailand remained closed on Tuesday, but then rebounding as Europe came online to trade mostly unchanged as investors continued to move out of megacap growth stocks amid fears of rising inflation and into companies that are expected to benefit more from the reopening of economies. At 715 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 17 points, or 0.06%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 4.00 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 42 points, or 0.30%. The dollar jumped, while Treasuries dropped along with most European bonds. Ethereum extended its surge to set another record as larger rival Bitcoin slipped.

Nasdaq 100 Index traded down 0.4% a day after tech giants such as Tesla and Amazon.com dragged the underlying index lower on signs of quickening inflation. Tech shares were also the biggest laggards in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, with semiconductor firm Infineon Technologies AG slumping as much as 5%. In contrast, cyclical shares such as miners and travel stocks helped power the European benchmark as a gauge of commodity prices hovered at the highest level since 2012.

Here are the notable premarket movers:

  • Mosaic continued to slide after missing estimates in results yesterday while CVS Health Corp rose ahead of reporting today.
  • FAAMG gigacaps fell between 0.2% and 0.5% in premarket trading
  • Big US banks such as Goldman and Wells Fargo added 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively,
  • Planemaker Boeing and oil major Chevron gained 0.8% each.
  • Dupont de Nemours rose 0.9% after the industrial materials maker raised its full-year profit and revenue forecasts and beat first-quarter expectations as did apparel maker Underarmor which rose 3%.

Copious stimulus measures, speedy vaccination drives and the Federal Reserve’s accommodative policy stance have spurred a strong rebound in the U.S. economy and pushed Wall Street to record highs this year. The so-called “pandemic winners”, however, have recently started to fall out of favor. First-quarter earnings have been largely upbeat. Average profits at S&P 500 companies are expected to have risen 46% in the quarter, compared with forecasts of a 24% growth at the start of April, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

“While megacap tech companies have been a core part of the solid performance of portfolios throughout the pandemic, we think investors should be careful to avoid overallocation to this part of the market,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a client note.”In an environment of accelerating growth, we continue to prefer cyclical and value sectors such as financials and energy.”

As the global economic recovery gathers pace thanks to successful vaccine rollouts in much of the developed world, inflation has emerged a chief concern, with a gauge of prices paid for materials jumping to the highest since 2008 on Monday and Bank of America going so far as warning of “transitory” hyperinflation.

The breadth of the rebound is also an open question, after Powell said that economic progress has been uneven across racial and income divides.

“We do believe that inflationary pressures will continue this year and that’s driven by the kind of policy we have seen globally,” Rupal Agarwal, a strategist at Sanford C Bernstein, said on Bloomberg TV. “In the shorter term you can expect some pullback in the markets but the broader sentiment remains bullish” as the reopening and reflation trade remains in force.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index retreated from session highs to inch down 0.1%, with technology companies weighing on sentiment and the German DAX falling 0.6% while UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.5% after a long weekend. Miners and oil and gas stocks rose more than 1% each, reflecting a rally in commodity prices, as investors bet on a strong global rebound on the back of massive vaccination drives in developed countries and unprecedented stimulus. Travel and leisure sector rose 0.2%, benefiting from Britain’s expected announcement of a green list for countries that people can travel to on holidays.

“Notably the UK seems to be moving through the gears on reigniting the engine of the economy without hitting a road bump of rapidly rising infections or hospitalisations,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

Tech stocks, however, slumped 1.2% after their Wall Street peers came under pressure on Monday. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • Jewellery maker Pandora jumped 4.8% on reporting quarterly operating profit above estimates, fuelled by strong online sales and plans to push for sales growth in the United States and China.
  • Dassault Aviation jumped 7.9% after Egypt’s defence ministry said it had signed a contract with France to buy 30 Rafale fighter jets.
  • Italy’s top commercial broadcaster Mediaset gained almost 3% after it agreed on a consensual break-up from its second-largest investor Vivendi. Vivendi’s shares slipped 0.3%.
  • Chipmaker Infineon fell 4.5% after CEO Reinhard Ploss said he was expecting supply constraints in the automotive segment to only ease in the second half of this year, with lost volumes likely to be made up in 2022. Europe’s automakers fell 0.5%.
  • German meal-kit delivery company HelloFresh fell 4.5% as worries about consumer behaviour, amid easing lockdowns, overshadowed a surge in first-quarter customer base.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as a resurgence of Covid-19 cases in the region dragged shares in Taiwan and India lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped as much as 0.3% before paring losses. The Taiex index slid 1.7%, clocking its worst two-day drop since August, after Taiwan reported two local virus cases on Monday. That slump took some of the shine off one of the world’s top-performing stock markets this year.

“Some near-term pullback may be expected after the strong April,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Marvin Chen of the Taiwan stock market which rose 6.9% last month. India’s Sensex index fell as much as 1.2% as the country continues to witness more than 300,000 new Covid-19 infections daily. There was some evidence of investors snapping up cheaper shares, however. Vietnam’s stock gauge ended the day up 0.2% after declining as much as 2.2%. Local governments implemented movement restrictions after the country reported domestic coronavirus cases last week for the first time in a month. Communication services and health care shares were the gauge’s biggest decliners. Gains in New Zealand and Hong Kong provided support. Markets in Japan, China and Thailand were closed Tuesday

Meanwhile, threats of a return to deflation continue to rumble as fierce new Covid-19 waves are enveloping India and parts of Southeast Asia, placing severe strain on their health-care systems and prompting appeals for help.

In rates, Treasury futures drifted lower as S&P 500 E-minis erase Asia-session losses, leaving 10-year yields cheaper by more than 2bp. Treasury 10-year yields around 1.62%, lagging bunds and gilts by ~1bp and cheapening more than 3bp on 2s10s30s fly; front-end yields higher by 1bp, steepening 2s10s by 2bp. With cash trading still closed for a Japanese holiday, Asia-session activity was muted and futures volumes were low. Dollar issuance slate includes Shinhan Financial PerpNC5 and Newcastle Coal 10Y; almost $10b priced Monday with $35b projected for the week, and another active slate skewed toward non-financial borrowers is expected Tuesday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the greenback was higher versus all of its Group-of-10 peers after extending gains in the European session, with many crosses giving up Monday’s gains and the Kiwi leading losses. The euro fell to an almost 2- week low of 1.2007 and tested its 21-DMA. The pound fell to a one- week low amid speculation that Bank of England policy makers this week will start discussing how and when they can ease their foot off the stimulus pedal; investors also focus on a Scottish vote on May 6, pitched on whether there should be a second independence referendum. The Australian dollar extended losses and the nation’s sovereign bonds fell after the central bank upgraded its economic growth outlook and said it will review its bond programs in July.

In commodities, oil continued its recent ascent, with WTI rising above $64.50/bbl and Brent north of of USD 67.50/bbl. There has been minimal development for oil with volumes also thin as Mainland Chinese and Japanese participants are away from their desks. Saudi Aramco released its earnings in the early hours but in line with its European counterparts, it has reaped in profits from the rise in oil prices whilst maintaining an optimistic outlook. Next up, the weekly Private Inventory data is the next scheduled catalyst for the complex. Elsewhere eyes remain on geopolitics but there is little new to report in terms of JCPOA.

In metals, spot gold and silver are again uneventful as the precious metals once again await US presence for directionality. LME copper prices are back on the rise and attempt to close in on the $10,000/t mark despite headwinds from the firmer Buck and the red metal’s largest buyer China away from markets. Aluminium prices meanwhile rose amid concerns that efforts by the Chinese government to reduce emissions would impact supply. Elsewhere cryptocurrency ether powered to another record peak, this time nearing $3,500 as speculators drive white-hot crypto markets higher. It last sat at $3,471.

Looking at today’s session, Pfizer, DuPont and T-Mobile US will post numbers. Economic data includes U.S. trade balance, factory orders and durable goods.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.17% to 4,178.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 439.78
  • MXAP little changed at 205.60
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 692.85
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 28,812.63
  • Topix down 0.6% to 1,898.24
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 28,557.14
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,446.86
  • Sensex little changed at 48,711.40
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,067.85
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 3,147.37
  • Brent Futures up 1.1% to $68.30/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.38% to $1,786.08
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.44% to 91.346
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.1 bps to -0.205%
  • Euro down 0.5% to $1.2004

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • While bond investors are showing growing faith in Europe’s recovery, rates traders doubt that higher borrowing costs will come imminently, underscoring the uncertainty in store for markets once central banks exit crisis mode
  • British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said coronavirus lockdown rules are set to be scrapped in seven weeks’ time, as he hailed the U.K.’s successful vaccine rollout ahead of key elections this week
  • A major investment deal reached in December between the European Union and China — after seven years of painful negotiations — may end up being the high-water mark for ties that are quickly deteriorating again

Quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk.

Asian equity markets traded somewhat mixed following on from a mostly positive US session after sentiment was underpinned amid an easing of COVID restrictions in the Tri-state area and for Florida. The Nasdaq underperformed with tech pressured by losses in work-from-home stocks and US equity futures also marginally pulled back in overnight trade. ASX 200 (+0.6%) was positive with the index kept afloat as the commodity-related sectors benefitted from recent upside in the complex but with gains limited by weakness in tech and a lacklustre mood for the top-weighted financials, while the RBA announcement and soft Trade Data added to the tentativeness. KOSPI (+0.6%) swung between gains and losses as some inflation concerns re-emerged following firmer than expected CPI data which printed 2.3% vs exp. 2.2% and was the fastest pace of increase since 2017, as well as the first time above the 2% target in 2 years. Hang Seng (+0.7%) was mildly underpinned after the recent stronger than expected Hong Kong GDP data for Q1, but with relatively light newsflow and continued absence of participants in mainland China and Japan, keeping price action in the region tepid.

Top Asian News

  • Citi’s Australia Unit Sale Draws Interest From Major Local Banks
  • Hyflux Gets Six Final Offers With One Covering Retail Investors
  • India Suspends Cricket League After Players Test Covid Positive
  • Singapore Finance Sector to Add 6,500 Jobs This Year: MAS
  • Foreign Investors Dominate Short Sellers After Korea Lifts Ban

Major bourses in Europe trade mixed (Euro Stoxx 50 Unch) after the optimism seen at the cash open waned as newsflow remains light and as participants look ahead to the US entrance for direction, as has been the case over recent sessions. US equity futures remain subdued with the NQ (-0.3%) narrowly lagging its peers, although the breadth of the price action is relatively narrow. Back to Europe, the FTSE 100 (+0.6%) is outperforming as it plays catch-up after yesterday’s bank holiday, whilst the DAX (-0.4%) resides on the other end of the spectrum – pressured by Infineon (-5.1%) as earnings overall underwhelmed with the global chip shortage also in mind. Sectors are also mixed with somewhat of a more pro-cyclical bias, as Basic Resources top the charts, closely followed by Oil & Gas. Travel & Leisure is bolstered by reports that France, Greece, and Spain are among nations that could be added to the UK’s safe “green list” by the end of June. Tui (+4%), easyJet (+3%), and IAG (+4%) are among the beneficiaries, with the latter also underpinned by an upgrade at JPM. Elsewhere, Mediaset (+2%) remains supported after reaching a deal with Vivendi (-0.2%) to settle their dispute – which would see a EUR 26.3mln outflow from Vivendi’s subsidiary Dailymotion. Earnings-related movers include Pandora (+5.6%), Telenor (+1.8%), AMS (-0.4%), Adecco (-4%) and Vonovia (-1.4%).

Top European News

  • Lufthansa CEO Pitches $6.6 Billion Capital Increase to Investors
  • U.K., India Seek to Double Trade by 2030 as Johnson, Modi Speak
  • Berlusconi’s Mediaset, Vivendi Resolve Five-Year Pay- TV Spat (2)
  • ECB’s Villeroy Says Don’t Fret About Europe’s Insolvency Risks
  • Carbon Hits Record 50 Euros on Tighter Pollution Rules

In FX, the Buck has already stopped the rot and is turning tables back on all major counterparts with the DXY firmly back above 91.000 and marginally eclipsing Monday’s peak between 91.393-90.985 extremes. Next up, NY ISM and factory orders before more Fed speak via Daly who is a current voter and neutral, dove and non-voter Kashkari and hawk Kaplan who also resumes FOMC voting rights in 2023.

  • NZD/AUD/CHF/EUR – The Kiwi is hovering just over 0.7150 after probing 0.7200 again briefly in the run up to NZ jobs data that is much more likely to provide independent direction or impetus than the latest bi-weekly GDT auction. Similarly, the Aussie has pulled back from overnight highs to sub-0.7750 levels, and more so on disappointing trade factors rather than the RBA’s policy meeting that ended with no change to dovish policy guidance even though the 2021 GDP forecast was upgraded appreciably. Elsewhere, the Franc has retreated through 0.9150 irrespective of a marked improvement in Swiss Q2 consumer sentiment and the Euro is back under the 100 DMA and trying to retain hold of the 1.2000 handle or at least stay close to decent option expiry interest at 1.2035 (1.1 BN).
  • CAD/JPY/GBP – Also unwinding gains vs their US rival, with the Loonie straddling 1.2300 ahead of Canadian trade and building permits, while the Yen is back under 109.00 on another Japanese holiday (Greenery Day), albeit keeping afloat of 109.50 and a key Fib retracement that was breached fleetingly yesterday (109.64) and Pound has bounced from circa 1.3851 having temporarily fallen beneath the 50 DMA (1.3864). However, Cable appears to be getting further assistance from the Euro as Eur/Gbp eyes 0.8650 to the downside amidst reports that the EU may prepared to be more flexible about business checks in Northern Ireland.
  • SCANDI/EM – Firmer oil prices have helped the Nok revisit 10.0000+ terrain vs the Eur, but the Sek is still under 10.1500 on the back of standard neutral to dovish remarks from Riksbank Governor Ingves and EM currencies are underperforming against the Usd with the Rub also undermined by a marked slowdown in Russia’s manufacturing PMI towards the 50.0 threshold and the Zar ruffled by Gold’s latest fade into Usd 1800/oz.

In commodities, a relatively directionless start to the European session for the crude complex before experiencing upside it what is seemingly a detachment from the broader sentiment and Dollar dynamics, with WTI front-month above the USD 64.50/bbl mark (vs low USD 64.39/bbl) and its Brent counterpart on north of of USD 67.50/bbl (vs low 67.37/bbl). There has been minimal development for oil with volumes also thin as Mainland Chinese and Japanese participants are away from their desks. Saudi Aramco released its earnings in the early hours but in line with its European counterparts, it has reaped in profits from the rise in oil prices whilst maintaining an optimistic outlook. Next up, the weekly Private Inventory data is the next scheduled catalyst for the complex. Elsewhere eyes remain on geopolitics but there is little new to report in terms of JCPOA talks thus far. Turning to metals, spot gold and silver are again uneventful as the precious metals once again await US presence for directionality in the absence of European news flow. LME copper prices are back on the rise and attempt to close in on the USD 10,000/t mark despite headwinds from the firmer Buck and the red metal’s largest buyer China away from markets. Aluminium prices meanwhile rose amid concerns that efforts by the Chinese government to reduce emissions would impact supply.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: March Trade Balance, est. -$74.3b, prior -$71.1b
  • 10am: March Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 1.3%; Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
  • 10am: March Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%; – Less Transportation, est. 1.6%, prior 1.6%
  • 10am: March Factory Orders, est. 1.2%, prior -0.8%; Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 1.8%, prior -0.6%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We were on holiday here in the U.K. yesterday and my bank holiday saw me visit Pret a Manger for the first time in 14 months after previously going there virtually every day for lunch. It then took a dramatic turn as gale force winds led to me seeing our new paddling pool fly by our window as we were having dinner last night. I had to go outside mid-meal and run after it. Fortunately I rescued it before it could be truly liberated.

With us being off yesterday it’s worth recapping our monthly performance review that we published early on Monday (link here). It was a decent month for risk but commodity prices exploded with agricultural prices in particular seeing an astonishing surge. The key industrial bellwether of copper topped the leaderboard with a +12.1% increase, which takes the metal to its highest level in a decade. Meanwhile oil prices maintained their existing YTD lead, with WTI (+7.5%) and Brent (+5.8%) both moving higher, to take their YTD gains to +31.0% and +29.8% respectively. Bloomberg’s agriculture spot index rose +13.4% over the last month, which is its biggest monthly gain since July 2012, and leaves the index up +72.3% year-on-year. Finally, corn (+31.1%) saw the biggest monthly increase since June 1988.

Although yesterday’s highlight was a slowdown in the US manufacturing ISM (60.7 vs 65.0 expected and down from a 37yr high of 64.7) the release contained plenty of supply disruptions and inflation nuggets. Prices paid (89.6 vs 85.6 last month) were at their highest level for nearly 13 years and have only been higher 18 times in the 73-year history. Meanwhile the accompanying presser said, “the Employment Index expanded for the fifth straight month, but panelists continue to note significant difficulties in attracting and retaining labor at their companies’ and suppliers’ facilities.”

The other notable quote that accompanied the ISM print points to a topic we have discussed a few times over the past few weeks: “The current electronics/semiconductor shortage is having tremendous impacts on lead times and pricing. Additionally, there appears to be a general inflation of prices across most, if not all, supply lines.” This dovetails with what many companies are reporting during this earnings season, and has caused more than a few to lower production guidance for 2021 even as consumer demand continues to rebound with the overall economy. In terms of future production, this month saw the highest readings ever recorded for order backlogs (68.2 vs. 67.5 last month) and the lowest on customer inventories (28.4 vs. 29.9 prior) which means factories could be playing catch-up for an extended period.

Global equities gained slightly yesterday as investors weighed the generally positive economic data against the persistent worries on inflation. By the close, the S&P 500 had risen +0.27% and the STOXX 600 was up a greater +0.58%, while the MSCI World index was up +0.34%, with all within 1% of their all-time highs. The S&P’s gains were driven by cyclical industries such as energy (+2.91%), transportation (+1.83%) and materials (+1.53%), while large-cap tech shares lagged as the NYFANG+ index fell -1.18% and the NASDAQ was dragged back -0.48%. It was a similar story in Europe where equities were led in part by the auto (+1.17%) sector, along with construction & materials (+0.88%) and industrial goods (+0.76%)

Even with inflation talk picking up, real yields fell back (-4.5bps) yesterday causing 10yr US Treasury yields to fall -2.8bps to 1.598%. 10yr yields fell nearly -5.0bps shortly after the ISM print, before moderating somewhat into the end of the day. Inflation expectations rose for the 6th session in the last 7 after falling back slightly on Friday, with the 10yr breakeven measure closing at 2.43% – once again its highest level since April 2013. European sovereign bonds similarly gained – though to a smaller degree – with yields on 10yr bunds down -0.3bps to -0.21% and French yields came in -0.8bps to 0.15%.

We also heard from Fed Chair Powell yesterday, who spoke publicly for the first time since non-voting Fed President Kaplan broached the topic of tapering on Friday, causing markets to react somewhat negatively. Powell said that the economic outlook “in the United States has clearly brightened,” but “it has been slower for those in lower paid jobs,” noting that nearly 20% of workers in the lowest earnings bracket are still unemployed after a year from last February. On the topic of rising housing prices, Powell cited a sharp increase in demand fueled by low mortgage rates and fiscal stimulus and expects that “it is going to be a tight housing market for some time now because demand is just very, very high.”

Overnight in Asia equities have posted a pretty mixed performance, with the Hang Seng (+0.27%) moving higher whilst the Kospi (-0.24%) has seen a similar move in the other direction. Nevertheless, a number of markets are closed for public holidays, including the Nikkei and the Shanghai Comp. Meanwhile in the US, futures are pointing to a lower move at the open, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.26%. The other main news came from the Reserve Bank of Australia, who kept their main policy settings on hold in line with expectations. Nevertheless, the statement pointed towards an important meeting in July, saying that at this meeting “the Board will also consider future bond purchases following the completion of the second $100 billion of purchases under the government bond purchase program in September.”

In terms of the pandemic, the US plans to start talks this week with the WTO to expand access to Covid-19 vaccines according to White House Chief of Staff Klain, who said “intellectual property rights is part of the problem, but really, manufacturing is the biggest problem.” The Biden Administration will also support Pfizer’s decision to start exporting US-made vaccines. India and South Africa are among the countries seeking a WTO waiver to ease IP protections for the current Covid-19 vaccines. Thankfully new cases in India slowed to the lowest in nearly a week (368k), but this could be a weekend effect and the numbers continued to put an incredible amount of strain on the nation’s health care system. On the topic of vaccines, Moderna announced plans to provide as many as 500 million doses of its shot to the Covax program targeted at lower-income nations, however the vast majority of these shots will only arrive next year.

Here in Europe, the European Commission’s new travel proposal will require approval from member states and could be adopted by the end of this month. The new rules would replace the current blanket ban for non-essential travel to the EU that has been the law of the land for just about a year. The commission is reportedly working on some form of a vaccine passport system. German Health Minister Spahn said yesterday that the government is planning to introduce legislation in the coming days that will exempt people fully vaccinated against Covid-19 from restrictions in the country. The US also continues on the path toward normalisation as cases there rose at the slowest rate (1.07%) since the pandemic began over the week ending this past Sunday, though that still amounts to over 344k cases.

To an abbreviated week ahead now and the biggest scheduled event will be Friday’s US jobs report for April, where our economists are expecting nonfarm payrolls to have grown by another +1.275m, which would follow the strong +916k reading in March. Fed Chair Powell has said that they “want to see a string of months” like the March report in order to reach the Fed’s goals, so all eyes will be on whether this report fits that definition. On the unemployment rate, our economists are expecting another decline to a post-pandemic low of 5.7%.

Here in the UK, the main event this week will be on Thursday when an array of local and regional elections will be taking place. This year there are an unusually large amount because last year’s set were delayed to 2021 because of the pandemic, meaning this is likely to be the biggest mid-term electoral test the parties face this side of the next general election. One of the main highlights will likely be the Scottish Parliament elections, where a majority for pro-independence parties would lead to fresh calls for another referendum on independence from the rest of the United Kingdom. For more details on these contests and the other votes that day, our UK economists have written a preview (link here).

Staying on the UK, the Bank of England will be making their latest monetary policy decision on Thursday as well, though our economists write in their preview (link here) that they don’t expect any change to their policy settings. In terms of when they might begin to taper their QE operations, they think it’s a close call between May and June, but ultimately the BoE will wait until June.

Earnings season is well developed now with a majority of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. The releases will continue apace this week however, with over 100 companies in the S&P making announcements by the end of the week. Among the highlights in the S&P and more broadly are Pfizer, T-Mobile and Ferrari today. Then tomorrow we’ll hear from PayPal, Novo Nordisk, General Motors, Booking Holdings and Uber. Thursday sees reports from Moderna, Linde, Volkswagen, AB InBev, Rio Tinto, AIG, Societe Generale and UniCredit. Finally on Friday, Siemens, Adidas, Credit Agricole and BMW will all be releasing earnings.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED MAY DOWN 28.04 PTS OR .81%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 199.60 PTS OR  0.70%     /The Nikkei closed down 244.34 pts or .83%  //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.50%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 6.4738 /Oil DOWN TO 65.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED   //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4738. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4877   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/

 

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN//

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA/PHILIPPINES

This should turn out to be interesting:  The Philippines top diplomat tells China to get out of their territorial waters

(zerohedge)

Philippines’ Top Diplomat Tells China To ‘GET THE F*CK OUT’ Of Their Territory

 
MONDAY, MAY 03, 2021 – 07:00 PM

The Philippines’ top diplomat, foreign minister Teodoro Locsin, demanded in a Monday tweet that China “GET THE FUCK OUT” of their territorial waters.

In response to the ‘illegal’ presence of hundreds of Chinese boats parked inside the Philippines 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), Locsin tweeted:

“China, my friend, how politely can I put it? Let me see… O…GET THE FUCK OUT. What are you doing to our friendship? You. Not us. We’re trying. You.”

Locsin’s screed then veers into a strange analogy involving a uterus and giving birth to a ball of crap.

China’s embassy in Manila did not respond to a Reutersrequest for comment, but officials have previously said the vessels parked at the disputed Whitsun Reef were fishing boats taking refuge from rough seas.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, through which about $3 trillion of ship-borne trade passes each year. In 2016, an arbitration tribunal in The Hague ruled the claim, which Beijing bases on its old maps, was inconsistent with international law.

In a statement on Monday, the Philippine foreign ministry accused China’s coast guard of “shadowing, blocking, dangerous manoeuvres, and radio challenges of the Philippine coast guard vessels.” -Reuters

Locsin defended his comments, saying “I get things done, my point across crystal.”

On Sunday, the Philippines announced that it would continue maritime exercises in its EEZ despite a Chinese demand that it stop actions which could ‘escalate disputes.’

Meanwhile, the Philippines has filed 78 diplomatic protests to China since President Rodrigo Duterte took office in 2016, according to Reuters, citing foreign ministry data.

“Our statements are stronger too because of the more brazen nature of the activities, the number, frequency and proximity of intrusions,” Marie Yvette Banzon-Abalos, executive director for strategic communications at the foreign ministry, said.

END

 

CHINA/AUSTRALIA

it is time for the west to seek out other countries like Viet Nam to make goods for them

China accuses Australia of colluding with terrorists in their fight over Uyghur rights.

(zerohedge)

 

China Accuses Australia Of “Colluding With Terrorists” In Row Over Uyghur Rights Group

 
MONDAY, MAY 03, 2021 – 11:00 PM

In the latest from their ongoing and increasingly nasty geopolitical row, China is accusing Australia giving a “free pass” to terror-sympathizers over accusations that Aussie politicians are backing Uighur activists and providing external support to Muslim fundamentalists in Xinjiang. 

This latest diplomatic fight started when as news.au.com describes Chinese state media “seized on an article, published by fringe political group the Australian Citizens Party, criticizing local politicians’ support for the East Turkistan Australian Association (ETAA), a Uyghur advocacy group. The article claimed the ETAA supported terror groups in Xinjiang.”

It was specifically Australia’s Defense Minister Andrew Hastie and independent Senator Rex Patrick who were called out by Chinese media for supporting the ETAA activists, which Canberra later called “disinformation”.

China’s foreign ministry was quick to respond fiercely, pointing the finger Australian officials for “colluding with terrorists” and warning Canberra will surely be “burned” by the Uyghur groups it’s backing. Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin additionally described “lies and smears” which target Xinjiang and China broadly.

“As some Western media are awash with lies and smears targeting Xinjiang, such objective and rational voices shows that justice will eventually prevail,” Wenbin said. “We urge certain Australian politicians not to stand on the wrong side of history and to stop endorsing anti-China separatist activities and terrorist organizations to avoid getting burned itself.”

Apparently the Australian political advocacy group which is at the center of the controversy does not have a wide following or much prominence in the Australian media landscape, yet as has happened with other countries and with similarly related issues, China seized upon the article in question to make it somehow representative of Australia’s official stance. 

Beijing was particularly angered at the article’s language describing Xinjiang as “currently under the brutal occupation of the Chinese Communist Government.”

Widely shared image on social media purporting to show a group of detainees in Xinjiang.

The aforementioned Senator Patrick in return charged that Beijing was merely seizing on “disinformation” and that the whole row is “not immediately helpful” in terms of improving the plight of China’s Muslim minority community.

“The focus of my attention has been to support those members of the Uyghur community in Adelaide and across Australia whose families are suffering the Chinese Communist Party directed genocide and oppression in Xinjiang,” the Australian politician said in a statement.

end

CHINA/GLOBE

The COVID 19 origins and new evidence reveals that their military team collaborated with the lab where the pandemic originated.

(Hao/EpochTimes)

Evidence Reveals That Military Team Collaborated With Lab Where COVID-19 Pandemic Originated

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 10:16 AM

Authored by Nicole Hao via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

 

Chinese virologist Shi Zhengli is seen inside the P4 laboratory in Wuhan city, Hubei Province, on Feb. 23, 2017. (Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images)

The Chinese regime has said its controversial virology institute had no relationship with the military, but the institute worked with military leaders on a government-sponsored project for almost a decade.

The Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) participated in a project, sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)—a regime-funded scientific research institution—from 2012 to 2018. The project was comprised of a team of five military and civil experts, who conducted research at WIV labs, military labs, and other civil labs leading to “the discovery of animal pathogens [biological agents that causes disease] in wild animals.”

The WIV is located in central China’s Wuhan City, the COVID-19 pandemic ground zero. As an advanced virology institution, the WIV has the only P4 lab—the highest biosafety level lab—in China and the biggest repository of bat coronaviruses in Asia. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, commonly known as novel coronavirus, is “96 percent identical at the whole-genome level to a bat coronavirus,” Chinese researchers wrote in a research article (pdf) published in February 2020.

In recent months, the Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry and Shi Zhengli, the WIV virologist nicknamed “Bat Woman” for her research on coronaviruses of bat origin, denied there is a connection between the WIV and military, and said that no WIV researchers were infected with COVID-19.

However, according to an investigation conducted by the U.S. State Department, several researchers inside the WIV became sick in autumn 2019, before the first identified case of the outbreak, with symptoms consistent with both COVID-19 and common seasonal illnesses.”

“The WIV has engaged in classified research, including laboratory animal experiments, on behalf of the Chinese military since at least 2017,” states a State Department fact sheet.

However, Shi denied that the WIV engaged in research with the Chinese military. “I don’t know of any military work at the WIV. That information is incorrect,” Shi said at a public webinar on March 23. Shi didn’t mention that the WIV was used by a Chinese military medical team in early 2020 for developing COVID-19 vaccines.

Shi told Science magazine in July 2020 that no pathogen leaks or personnel infections had occurred. The magazine reported that according to Shi, “there is ‘zero infection’ among staff or students with SARS-CoV-2 [2019 novel coronavirus] or SARS-related viruses.”

In late March, overseas Chinese media reported that three WIV staff members started to have symptoms similar to COVID-19 as early as November 2019. Soon thereafter, Chinese state-run media China News reported that the news was based on rumors.

China News reported that a Chinese specialist told the WHO investigation team—which visited China in February to investigate the origin of the CCP virus—that cases dating back to 2019 were patients at WIV-related hospitals, rather than members of WIV staff.

 

Security personnel gather near the entrance to the Wuhan Institute of Virology during a visit by the World Health Organization team in Wuhan, China, on Feb. 3, 2021. (Ng Han Guan/AP Photo)

Military-Civil Cooperation

The NSFC put research results about the animal pathogens on its website on Feb. 1, 2018. It also stated that the project “discovered over 1,640 types of new viruses by using the metagenomics technology,” and the research was performed by a civil and military team.

Cao Wuchun, 58, a member of the project’s military team, is a colonel and top epidemiologist in the Chinese military. He has been a researcher at the Academy of Military Medical Sciences since September 2017, but has worked there for the last 21 years. He served as the academy’s director from 2007 to 2017, according to his official resume. Cao served on the team as second in command to Major General Chen Wei, China’s top biowarfare expert.

On Jan. 26, 2020,Cao accompanied Chen to Wuhan and they took over command of the WIV. Chinese state-run media reported, at that time, that the main purpose of the military take-over was to develop a vaccine against the CCP virus.

Cao also co-led the NSFC project with Shi (the WIV virologist), and the Chen-Cao team had taken over the WIV when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in Wuhan.

 

Workers are seen inside the P4 laboratory in Wuhan, China, on Feb. 23, 2017. (Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images)

The other three team leaders of the NSFC project were Liang Guodong, Zhang Yongzhen, and Xu Jianguo, researchers from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Among them, Xu was the project leader or the manager of the other four team members.

Xu, 69, is the director of the CDC’s state key laboratory for communicable disease prevention and control, a scholar at the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and director of the Research Institute of Public Health at Nankai University. Xu’s resume states that he received $987,820 in funding from the NSFC for the project.

As one of China’s top virus specialists, Xu went to Wuhan to serve as a team leader in early 2020. On Jan. 14, 2020, Xu told China’s Science magazine, “All 763 close contacts aren’t infected. The pandemic isn’t severe, and it might stop next week if there’s no more new infection.”

In fact, Wuhan people started to crowd inside hospitals for their pneumonia symptoms from early January 2020, but the regime refused to recognize that the virus can transmit among humans until Jan. 20, 2020. The late announcements fooled people into traveling and allowed the virus to spread all around the world from Wuhan.

 

A team of scientists and science students from Chulalongkorn University paint the toenails of a wrinkle-lipped free-tailed bat after sampling as a way of tagging it at an on-site lab near the Khao Chong Pran Cave in Ratchaburi, Thailand, on Sept. 12, 2020. (Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images)

Bat Woman

Shi, 56, directs the Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases at WIV. In 2000, she received her Ph. D. degree in virology from the University of Montpellier II in France, after studying there for four years.

Shi started to investigate coronaviruses when China suffered from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2002 and 2003.

Beijing authorities said the SARS virus was transmitted from civets (a meat-eating animal) to humans in southern China’s Guangdong Province in November 2002, and spread to other Chinese cities and neighboring Hong Kong because the regime didn’t allow people to discuss this infectious disease in the first two months. SARS eventually killed at least 774 people, and infected 8,096 people from 31 countries.

Chinese state-run CCTV reported on Dec. 29, 2017, that Shi and her team didn’t believe that civets were the natural hosts of SARS, and were only the intermediate host. They started to investigate bats from different Chinese regions in 2004.

In 2011, Shi’s team detected a SARS-like virus from bats living in a cave in southwestern China’s Yunnan Province. They then named this virus “WIV1” and conducted further studies. CCTV didn’t report the details of the virus, but said Shi’s team continued to get samples from the same cave for five years.

Since 2015, Shi’s team has been publishing their test results in international magazines, including Virologica Sinica, Nature, and Lancet.

Weeks after the Chinese regime publicly announced the COVID-19 outbreak, Shi and her team published an article in Nature, linking COVID-19 to bats.

Shi’s team discovered the bat coronavirus in the bats that they had collected from an abandoned copper mine in Tongguan township, Mojiang county in Yunnan Province. The WIV researchers had visited the mine for several days even after six workers had gotten infected while working there.

On July 15, 2020, virologist Jonathan Latham and molecular biologist Allison Wilson from Ithaca, N.Y., co-published an article in Independent Science News after translating a 66-page master’s thesis by Li Xu, a Chinese medical doctor who treated the miners and sent their tissue samples to the WIV for testing.

Li’s thesis was submitted in May 2013. He wrote that six miners removed the bat feces from a mine in April 2012. After working there for 14 days, all workers felt sick with severe symptoms, such as high fever, dry cough, and sore limbs.

Kunming Medical University, School of Clinical Medicine, where Li studied, received and treated the miners. Finally, three of the miners died. Their samples were sent to WIV for further investigation.

CHINA/USA/USA STOCK MARKET

The China Hustle spelled out…

(zerohedge)

Bill Hwang’s Blowup Begs Questions About The Next “China Hustle” In Its Wake

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 09:05 AM

If there was thing that was peculiar about Bill Hwang’s blowup, it was the choice of some of his investments. Hwang had gone long several questionable names that had been targeted by short sellers in the past. 

Some of the names Hwang was in – like GSX, for example – also saw intense call buying over the span of months after being targeted by short sellers, likely helping drive up the equity’s price by several multiples of itself in what was an obviously unnatural fashion to all observers with more than one or two brain cells. It is unconfirmed whether or not Hwang played a part in these options purchases in these questionable names, but now it at least appears that some of Hwang’s stock selections have caught the eye of the media. 

For example, the South China Morning Post couldn’t help but notice that “Archegos was loaded up with investments in Chinese companies that have been accused of fraud”. The article asked whether Hwang’s blowup was the conclusion to the “unfinished story” that was laid out in The China Hustle, a documentary about exposing U.S. listed China based fraudulent companies.

The movie laid out how numerous Chinese companies systematically committed fraud across various U.S. exchanges, siphoning millions of dollars out of the country at the expense of U.S. investors and unwilling funds. 

SCMP couldn’t help but draw the parallel between the short sellers who acted as protagonists in the movie and Hwang. This is because those same protagonists had alleged fraud in numerous names in Hwang’s portfolio. In addition to GSX, there were also names like iQiyi and Vipshop, which had been targeted by short sellers Muddy Waters Research, J Capital Research and Citron Research as frauds. 

And many of these companies accused of fraud, notably GSX, were somehow able to buck the accusations – despite the gravitas of those making the allegations – and mysteriously rise higher. 

But then, Hwang blew up. The article laid out how Hwang’s positions in names cascaded lower, one after the other, after Viacom sold shares to take advantage of what analysts were widely considering to be an overvalued stock, after it had risen 600% over the course of less than a year. 

And so the SCMP notes that after watching the “delicately balanced bomb” of Hwang’s portfolio eventually detonate, eyes have turned to China Huarong Asset Management.

The asset manager “has portfolios of distressed assets monetised in its US$22 billion bonds, that are being leveraged by US investors”, SCMP writes. “Fitch helpfully downgraded its credit rating on the bonds from ‘A’ to ‘B’ – one notch above junk – after a panic sell-off.”

At the end of the day, Hwang’s blowup leaves us with more questions than answers. Namely:

  1. Why did Hwang have a portfolio full of names accused of fraud?
  2. Why did several of his names, like DISCA and VIAC, mysteriously rise higher at aggressive clips? Was Hwang in the options market in these names?
  3. Could China Huarong Asset Management be the next bomb to go off?

For these answers and more, stay tuned..

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU/CHINA

Eu lawmakers are now second guessing as they pledge to reject the EU China investment deal as they deal with their first meeting on Beijing counter sanctions against certain European members

(WU/Epochtimes)

EU Lawmakers Pledge To Reject EU-China Investment Deal In First Meeting On Beijing’s Sanctions

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times,

Members of European Parliament have vowed to reject the EU-China Investment Agreement that was awaiting ratification over China’s human rights abuses and sanctions by the ruling communist party.

More than 30 MEPs took the floor on April 28 to denounce China for demanding that the EU stop criticism of its human rights record, saying they won’t ratify the China investment deal unless human rights are addressed first. Some have said outright that they want the deal thrown out.

The comments were made during the European Parliament’s first meeting regarding the Chinese communist regime’s counter-sanctions against EU representatives and entities who sanctioned several Chinese communist officials over human rights abuses against Uyghurs and other minorities in Xinjiang in late March.

But the counter-sanctions imperiled the likelihood of the investment deal being ratified.

French MEP Emmanuel Maurel told parliament of the CCP’s sanctions, “If we want to show, once and for all, that the EU is not just a supermarket but rather has principles … we have to come up with some tangible action, and that means we need to reject the investment agreement.”

Vice-Chair of the EU Parliament’s Subcommittee on Human Rights and German MEP Hannah Neumann said, “This is a regime arbitrarily shooting a shotgun targeting our freedom of expression, our freedom of research, and our rights as members of parliament.”

She told Parliament that human rights need to be addressed before moving forward with the investment deal, adding “I am not willing to let a foreign country dictate to me how to do my job.”

German Greens MEP Reinhard Bütikofer, Chair of the European Parliament’s China Delegation, who was targeted by Beijing’s sanction list, said that if the sanctions Beijing has imposed on the EU parliament are not lifted, the “EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, or ‘CAI’, is in the deep freeze as far as the European Parliament is concerned.”

He said the sanctions marked “a new height of China’s aggressive claim to power.”

“Instead, we will put pressure to use new instruments to better protect our economy against unfair Chinese practices, be it in access to procurement markets, the fight against illegal subsidies, or against products made using forced labour,” he added, according to a statement.

Maria Arena, a MEP from Belgium, added, “If pro-democracy rights in Hong Kong or Taiwan cannot be discussed in this parliament, then nothing can be discussed in this parliament.”

Five leading EU MEPs whose votes are needed to ratify the EU-China investment deal were included in the sanctions.

Focus on Trade, Not Human Rights: Beijing

Meanwhile, Chinese leaders have continued trying to push for the deal, calling the EU to focus on trade and not human rights.

Xi Jinping on April 16 urged the EU to ratify the investment deal in a video conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron ahead of the world leaders’ summit on climate issues.

On April 20, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang met with business leaders from major EU countries in Chengdu’s China-EU center to seek support for the investment deal.

Then, on April 28, in a virtual meeting for the sixth German-Chinese government consultations, Li told German Chancellor Angela Merkel that Germany should focus on trade and not China’s “internal affairs” that include human rights issues, Politico reported.

The EU-China investment agreement has been championed in the EU by German Chancellor Angela Merkel for its promise to open up more sectors of the Chinese economy to EU investment and benefits for European carmakers manufacturing out of China. French President Emmanuel Macron has supported Merkel’s efforts, despite several EU country’s objections.

The agreement was signed last December after seven years of negotiations but it must be ratified by EU Parliament to take effect.

Merkel is stepping down in September and her SPD has slumped in recent election polls, with the opposition Greens party enjoying a polling lead.

The Greens recently said in statement: “Trade is a powerful lever to defend and strengthen human rights and fundamental democratic values. Unfortunately, the EU-China investment agreement, hastily concluded by the German government at the end of last year, contradicts this very goal.”

Macron is also facing strong backlash against the CAI domestically ahead of next year’s presidential election.

The EU on April 24 also took action to condemn the Chinese regime’s aggression in South China Sea that it said was endangering regional peace.

On April 21, EU President Ursula von der Leyen had also said in “progress report” on China that “fundamental divergences” between the EU and China about “economic systems and managing globalization, democracy and human rights, or on how to deal with third countries” were becoming a reality that are “set to remain for the foreseeable future and must not be brushed under the carpet.”

 
END
Ties between China and Eu and quickly deteriorating!
(zerohedge)

The Thrill Is Gone: Europe Chills On China Over Human Rights Record

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 01:16 PM

Economic ties between the EU and China are quickly deteriorating, following a ‘high-water mark’ for relations marked by a major investment deal in December, with both the EU’s executive branch and Germany each crafting legislation which would make it far more difficult for Chinese entities to invest,according to Bloomberg, which frames it as ” joining the U.S. in swapping tit-for-tat sanctions with Beijing.”

Italy, meanwhile, has gone from backing Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative to similarly blocking planned acquisitions by Chinese companies. In France, China’s ambassador didn’t even appear when summoned in March, citing “agenda reasons.”

In short, Europe is hardening its stance on Beijing– with the biggest shift potentially to come amid a surge in popularity among the China-skeptic Greens party in Germany.

 

Angela Merkel during virtual talks with Li Keqiang on April 28.
Photographer: Pool/Getty Images

Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang last week, and the two pledged closer cooperation on Covid-19 vaccines and fighting climate change. Yet the talk in Berlin is that optimism around the relationship is goneand one Chinese official characterized ties with Europe as on a downward trajectory. Whether the Greens come to power in Germany or not, EU-China relations are at a critical juncture, said the official, asking not to be identified speaking about strategic matters. -Bloomberg

The report suggests that Europe is “moving closer to the views of President Joe Biden’s administration in its standoff with China” while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken conducts discussions with his G7 counterparts in London, “a Europe more aligned with Washington would signal some repair to the damage done to transatlantic ties by the Trump administration, with implications for trade, tariffs and access to technology.”

The Biden administration has noted the shift – with one official saying there’s been a “sea change” in European thinking towards the US stance on China, particularly in Germany.

There’s been a mood shift,” according to Joerg Wuttke, Beijing-based president of the European Chamber of Commerce in China and a board member of the Mercator Institute of China Studies in Berlin, one of the entities sanctioned by China in March.

Wuttke cites a “perfect storm” between China’s hardline stance on Taiwan, efforts to tighten its political grip over Hong Kong, and international sanctions over widely-reported human rights violations in the Xinjiang region – plus, the fact that China hasn’t come through on its promises of opening up economically.

That said, some EU members, such as Hungary, are maintaining warm ties with Beijing.

Economic ties remain paramount since China is the EU’s biggest trading partner, with a total volume of some $686 billion in 2020 outstripping U.S.-China trade of $572 billion. Yet now even the Netherlands, which is among China’s top 10 trading partners, is growing more wary, protecting its high-tech companies from takeover and enacting a dedicated China strategy. According to the Chinese official, the U.S. has forced the EU to take sides.

The sentiment was different just four months ago when Merkel helped steer the bloc to seal the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, which Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said was “an important landmark in our relationship with China.” Still subject to ratification by the European Parliament, it would provide improved access to the Chinese market for European investors while committing China to “ambitious principles” including on forced labor.

Yetby late March, the EU had joined the U.S., Canada and the U.K. in imposing sanctions on China over alleged mistreatment of  Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang, including forcing them to work. Beijing responded with its own sanctions, while a public backlash saw Swedish fashion retailer Hennes & Mauritz AB subject to an unofficial boycott. -Bloomberg

 “The EU has recently added more agenda items tied with human rights, ideology, democracy,” according to Zhang Monan, senior fellow at the U.S.-Europe Institute at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges in Beijing. “This kind of opposition and friction is expected to continue.”

Now, the European Commission is proposing rules to hit foreign state-owned companies with fines, while Merkel and her cabinet have approved additional powers to stem foreign investments in high-tech sectors, including artificial intelligence and quantum computing – both of which directly affect China.

According to one academic at a Chinese government-affiliated think tank, China’s hope to separate political and economic issues and to bind Europe with its consumer market is ‘increasingly impossible’ now.

“China and Germany have different views on some issues, this is a fact,” Li told Merkel – essentially telling Germany to butt out of their treatment of Uighurs, adding that he hoped the two countries could “eliminate unnecessary distractions” in order to maintain “healthy and stable bilateral ties.”

 

A facility believed to be a re-education camp where mostly Muslim ethnic minorities are detained, in Xinjiang region, in June 2019.
Photographer: GREG BAKER/AFP

If the Greens in Germany are able to claim victory in September, Merkel will step aside, making way for a government with a much harsher line towards China than the current administration. The Greens have called for Beijing to end its “blatant human-rights violations,” along with closer coordination between Europe and North American partners on China.

That said, Europe is “determined to avoid decoupling entirely with China,” according to the report, pointing to an April call between Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Xi, as well as an April 28 article in China’s Global Times referring to “optimism and confidence in China-Germany cooperation” despite “some impacts” due to the election.

The question, as Wuttke at the European trade chamber notes, is whether China will continue to underestimate the concern in Germany over its human rights record – particularly after Merkel is no longer in control.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/SYRIA/TURKEY

State of affairs as is right now in Syria and how Moscow plans to attack ISIS.  Turkey is interfering in the north

(South Front)

Damascus And Moscow Prepare For Spring Cleaning In Central Syria

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 05:00 AM

Submitted by South Front,

At the beginning of May, the time of spring cleaning in central Syria may have arrived.

The Russian Aerospace Forces carried out a series of airstrikes on ISIS hideouts in the region, and specifically the Jebel Bishri region located along the administrative border between Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, the Hama-Aleppo-Raqqa triangle and other parts of the region.

These strikes took place in anticipation of a large-scale operation that the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) will carry out with Russian support.

Several units from the SAA 5th Corps, 11th Division and the 25th Special Forces Division, known as the Tiger Forces, will take part in the operation. Syrian troops will move from Hama and Raqqa simultaneously.

ISIS has ramped up its activities in the last several weeks. The Amaq News Agency even shared footage of terrorists going about their daily chores in Homs. Likely to show that being a terrorist isn’t so bad and there’s some sort of normality to the entire scenario.

In the northern part of Syria, despite no ISIS, chaos is ever present. Not least thanks to Turkey’s crusade on the Kurdish groups in the region.

On May 2nd, a child was reportedly killed when at least 12 rockets landed in Afrin city center and nearby farms. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control a strip of land to the south of Afrin, was blamed for the deadly rocket attack.

On the previous day, six artillery shells hit Afrin city. No human losses were reported, Turkish forces responded by shelling two nearby towns held by the SDF.

Several units of the SAA and the Russian Military Police are present in the SDF-held pocket south of Afrin.

On April 30th, the Russian Aerospace Forces targeted militants preparing to attack Turkish forces in the northern region. Militants near the town of Shuarghat al-Arz in northern Aleppo and Khurbat al-Ruzz in northern Raqqa were targeted with several FOTAB 100-80 flash bombs.

On the same day, nearby, in Greater Idlib, militants of the al-Fateh al-Mubeen Operations Room, that’s led by al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, attacked Syrian army positons near the town of Kafr Nabl in the southern part of the province.

The militants targeted SAA troops with heavy machine guns, and a battle tank was struck by an anti-tank guided missile.

According to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the SAA responded to the attack by pounding militants’ positions in the towns of Kansafra and Fatterah.

The “moderate opposition” in Idlib wastes no chance to remind of itself by violating the ceasefire regime in the countryside and shell SAA units and positions.

 
IRAN/ ISRAEL/USA
 
Biden tells Mossad chief that they are not close to a deal yet they are willing to lift sanctions.
What a bird brain!
(zerohedge)

Biden Tells Mossad Chief US ‘Not Close’ To Deal While Iran Says Sanctions About To Be Lifted

 
MONDAY, MAY 03, 2021 – 05:40 PM

An Israeli delegation of top officials has been in Washington seeking to persuade the White House to drop its pursuit of the JCPOA nuclear deal. Most notably among them is Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, who reportedly told Biden directly on Friday that any return to an unimproved deal would be a mistake.

Biden’s response was reported by Axios on Sunday as being that “the US has a long way to go in talks with Iran” before it would restore participation in the 2015 agreement. This after the president was said to have “dropped by” a one hour meeting that had been in progress. “Cohen was the only person to attend it from the Israeli side. Biden, Sullivan and CIA director Bill Burns attended from the US side,” Axios said.

Ironically Biden had previously sought to assure the world and the American public that he wouldn’t let Israel dictate the course of Iran nuclear talks; and yet Biden “assured” the Mossad director that Israeli input during future Vienna Iran talks would be welcomed and persistent

Biden’s prior “warning” against Israeli interference came in response to alleged Israeli sabotage of the Islamic Republic’s Natanz nuclear site on April 11 just as the Vienna process kicked off. It’s widely perceived that Tel Aviv has stepped up covert attacks on Iranian assets in the region, including against Iranian tankers and vessels, in the hopes that an Iranian “reaction” will earn condemnation from Western allies and ultimately disrupt the Vienna talks.

Meanwhile Iranian officials were very optimistic as to progress of the talks over the weekend while National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said talks remained in an “unclear place”.

One US media report indicated “sanctions on Iranian oil and banks will be lifted, Iran’s top negotiator told Iranian state media Saturday, based on agreements made at talks in Vienna.”

“Sanctions… on Iran’s energy sector, which include oil and gas, or those on the automotive industry, financial, banking and port sanctions, all should be lifted based on agreements reached so far,” Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was cited in state media as saying.

The Biden administration has since last week strongly suggested it’s mulling a “wholesale rollback” of Trump-era sanctions – something which has angered national security hawks as well as Israeli leaders. But at this point nothing is certain, except for Tehran’s insistence that its patience is limited, and doesn’t want talks to “drag on”.

 

end

TALIBAN/AFGHANISTAN/USA

none today

TURKEY

none today

 

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE

(Mises)

The Narrative On Lockdowns And Masks Fails Yet Again

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 01:50 PM

Authored by Anthony Rozmajzl via The Mises Institute,

In the past couple of months, our esteemed public health experts have had a rough go of defending the supposedly settled science behind lockdowns and mask mandates.

White House covid-19 advisor Andy Slavitt was first on the chopping block back in mid-February, when he was reduced to parroting empty platitudes about social distancing after failing to explain why a completely open Florida had numbers no worse than a strictly locked-down California. Then comes media darling Dr. Anthony Fauci, who has had a particularly embarrassing series of public appearances of late. During a recent MSNBC interview Fauci expressed confusion and wasn’t “quite sure” as to why Texas was experiencing falling cases and deaths an entire month after lifting its mask mandates and capacity restrictions. Moreover, during a hearing with Representative Jim Jordan, Fauci completely dodged Jordan’s question of why Texas has lower case rates than some of the most notable lockdown states. Fauci, refusing to answer the question, simply responded that having a lockdown is not the same thing as obeying lockdowns. Fauci was correct here, but he indirectly claimed that citizens of New York and New Jersey, two notorious lockdown states, were complying less with mitigation measures than a state that had, and still has, practically none. A quick check of Google’s covid-19 mobility reports lays this counterintuitive claim to rest.

The American Media’s Agenda

When governments and media outlets around the world have successfully captured audiences by stoking fear of covid-19, the data that should so easily assuage this fear become irrelevant, and interviews like those mentioned above are simply brushed aside in favor of a fear-born allegiance to the “morally superior” government-mandated lockdowns, curfews, mask mandates, and more. This “scared straight” approach, as Bill Maher correctly described it, is the state’s bludgeon of compliance.

As far as scaring citizens straight, Project Veritas has released footage showing CNN employees explaining how the network plays up the covid-19 death toll to drive numbers. Especially disgraceful was CNN technical director Charlie Chester’s admission that the network doesn’t like to report recovery rates because “[t]hat’s not scary…. If it bleeds it leads.”

CNN isn’t alone in the fearmongering business. Thanks to the surplus of United States media outlets willing to churn up a disproportionate amount of negative covid-19 headlines—roughly 90 percent of covid-19 news in the United States is negative compared to 51 percent internationally—is it any surprise that nearly 70 percent of Democrats, 51 percent of Republicans, and almost 50 percent of independents think the chances of being hospitalized with covid-19 range anywhere from 20 percent to over 50 percent?

Where’s the Correlation?

Government- and media-induced panic have blinded us to the data, which for the past thirteen months have consistently shown zero correlation between the timing, strength, and duration of mitigation measures and covid-19 incidence. Nowhere could this lack of correlation be more prevalent than among lockdowns and mask usage.

Leaving aside the disastrous and deadly consequences of government lockdowns—see herehere, and here—the evidence for lockdowns’ ability to mitigate covid-19 mortality remains scant.

Looking at the United States, we can address the widely believed notion that states with more intense lockdowns will see fewer covid-19 deaths by plotting each state’s average restriction ranking over the past thirteen months against the total number of covid-19 deaths for each state. To get the average ranking, the author averaged data from Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government—this source ranked each state by the average time spent at a stringency index measure greater than sixty up until mid-December 2020—and Wallethub, which also ranked each state by stringency using a weighted average of various measures from January 2021 onward. Now, if the past year’s worth of sanctimonious lectures from public health experts have any scientific weight behind them, we should see a very strong negative correlation between the intensity of states’ restrictions and total covid-19 deaths.

Source: Data on deaths (as of Apr. 28, 2021) from the NYTimes Covid-19 Data Bot. Data on restriction rankings from the NYTimes Covid-19 Data Bot (through December 2020); Adam McCann, “States with the Fewest Coronavirus Restrictions,” WalletHub, Apr. 6, 2021 (since January 2021); and Laura Hallas, Ariq Hatibie, Saptarshi Majumdar, Monika Pyarali, and Thomas Hale, “Variation in US States’ Responses to COVID-19” (Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper No. BSG-WP-2020/034, December 2020).

Contrary to what the public health experts have been telling us for more than a year, there is no correlation between the strength of a state’s lockdown measures and total covid-19 deaths. In fact, notorious lockdown states such as New York and New Jersey have some of the worst mortality numbers to date. To blame noncompliance for these poor numbers is ridiculous on its face considering states with no restrictions, such as Texas and Florida, have far fewer deaths than New York and New Jersey. In fact, you’ll find that every state that has either removed its mask mandate or all covid-19 restrictions entirely is outperforming New York and New Jersey in terms of deaths.

The same lack of correlation can be seen when comparing average lockdown stringency with the total number of patients hospitalized who have suspected or confirmed covid-19. As a point of clarification, the author summed the current number of patients hospitalized each day to arrive at the total number of patients hospitalized. This will result in slightly inflated total numbers since patients may spend more than one day in the hospital, but having applied the same aggregation method across all states, the total hospitalization metric still provides an accurate assessment of covid-19 hospitalizations in each state.

Source: Data on hospitalizations (as of Apr. 24, 2021) from the US Department of Health and Human Services. Data on restriction rankings from the NYTimes Covid-19 Data Bot (through December 2020); Adam McCann, “States with the Fewest Coronavirus Restrictions,” WalletHub, Apr. 6, 2021 (since January 2021); and Laura Hallas, Ariq Hatibie, Saptarshi Majumdar, Monika Pyarali, and Thomas Hale, “Variation in US States’ Responses to COVID-19” (Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper No. BSG-WP-2020/034, December 2020).

Internationally speaking, the data continue to expose lockdowns as the single greatest public health failure in human history. Plotting lockdown stringency against total covid-19 death toll reveals, yet again, zero correlation between the two variables.

Source: Data on deaths (as of Apr. 28, 2021) and lockdown stringency (as of Apr. 28, 2021) from Our World in Data.

In light of a year’s worth of data showing wildly different mortality and hospitalization outcomes for fifty states with fifty very different lockdown stringencies, as well as drastically different mortality outcomes for 166 countries with 166 different lockdown stringencies, one can only marvel that such a deadly and ineffective policy can be recommended by public health experts.

If the lockdowns failed to mitigate the spread of covid-19 in the United States just as in dozens of countries around the world—remember, the lockdowns fail without even taking their costs into account—it’s possible that mask usage is the missing piece of the mitigation puzzle.

It wouldn’t be fair to the reader to post quite literally hundreds of charts that show the exact opposite outcomes the media would have you expect after regions remove or institute mask mandates—Ian Miller has done more work in this area than anybody else. It also wouldn’t be fair to claim that mask mandates and mask usage are synonymous. However, based on reactions to states lifting their mask mandates, I don’t think any proponent of mask wearing would seriously expect the same level of mask usage should mandates be lifted. Nevertheless, the claim that mask usage negatively correlates with cases and deaths is easily refuted with a quick look at the data. Given the data available, we’ll again only be looking at the fifty states.

Source: Data for cases and deaths (as of Apr. 28, 2021) from the NYTimes Covid-19 Data Bot. Mask usage data from the Delphi Group’s COVIDcast.

Even though the trend lines travel in the exact opposite direction of what our public health experts would have us expect, the correlations are statistically meaningless. Note that the above chart only covers the 2.5-month period starting February 9, 2021, which is when COVIDcast began reporting mask usage numbers for each state. Therefore, the author included only the cases and deaths that occurred during this 2.5-month period. Despite this truncated time period, 2.5 months should have been more than enough to have exposed any sort of meaningful correlation between mask usage and both cases and deaths.

It is worth noting that Rhode Island and New York, each with some of the highest mask usage rates and lockdown stringencies in the country, are leading the pack with some of the largest case increases since early February. What is more, in the 2.5 months since early February the ten states with the highest rate of mask usage have been doing worse in both cases and deaths than the ten states with the lowest rate of mask usage.

Source: Data for cases and deaths (as of Apr. 28, 2021) from the NYTimes Covid-19 Data Bot. Mask usage data from the Delphi Group’s COVIDcast.

Remember, we aren’t measuring the amount of rules that simply say you have to wear a mask. What’s being measured is the percentage of people actually wearing masks in public in each state. It’s quite difficult to look at the trends depicted above and make the case not only for continuing mask mandates, but wearing masks at all.

Some may have an issue with the fact that the trends above only cover the couple of months since February. Let’s assume, for the sake of a more complete picture, that mask usage trends were consistent for each state since the start of the pandemic. We can also expand our filter to the top and bottom fifteen states to account for some states’ movement in and out of the top and bottom ten states.

Source: Data for cases and deaths (as of Apr. 28, 2021) from the NYTimes Covid-19 Data Bot. Mask usage data from the Delphi Group’s COVIDcast.

In terms of cases, from April to around mid-June, states with the lowest rates of mask usage were outperforming states with the highest rates of mask usage. This trend reversed from mid-June through mid-January and then reversed again in favor of states with the lowest rate of mask usage.

In terms of deaths, states with the lowest rates of mask usage outperformed states with the highest rates of mask usage from April until mid-July. From mid-July to mid-February, death trends were more favorable to states with the highest rates of mask usage, but after mid-February death trends again became more favorable to states with the lowest rates of mask usage. Again, if we are assuming fairly consistent rates of mask usage across the entire duration of the pandemic while also assuming that the science behind masks is truly settled, it’s quite difficult to explain away any period of time in which states with the lowest rates of mask usage were outperforming states with the highest rates.

The supposedly settled science behind both lockdowns and mask mandates has always been in serious trouble but is even more so now. Completely leaving aside the incredible death toll of the lockdowns, their numerous social and psychological costs, the totalitarian denial of our most basic liberties, and the decimation of tens of thousands of small businesses, they would still be a miserable failure by nearly every covid-19 metric we have available. Though, to be fair, the lockdowns did make our cities quieter. But aside from that, the data continue to deny that either lockdowns or mask mandates are effective tools for mitigating the spread of covid-19.

MEXICO
 
Infrastructure is important on a continual basis.  The overpass was neglected and it collapsed
(zerohedge)

At Least 20 Killed, Dozens Hospitalized, In Mexico City Overpass Collapse

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 07:01 AM

Update (0745ET): Wire reports have updated the number of casualties from last night’s overpass collapse in Mexico City. At least 23 have now died, and another 70 are injured.

“Unfortunately there are 23 deceased,” including minors, Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum told reporters at the scene in the south of the capital, according to Agence France-Presse.

She added that first responders can’t tell if any of the people trapped in the rubble are alive, or not.

* * *

An overpass in Mexico City collapsed Monday night, plunging subway cars filled with passengers to the ground below. At least 20 people have been killed, with many more – roughly 70, according to the latest reports – badly injured.

Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum said during press conference at the scene of the accident that 49 people had been transported to various hospitals. The accident on Line 12 of the subway system was caused by a broken beam, the mayor said.

“We are going to do all the investigations to determine what the causes were,” the mayor said. “We can’t speculate at this moment.”

Disturbing scenes broadcast on Mexico’s Milenio TV showed how the overpass collapsed and the train tumbled on to unsuspecting cars below, sending up a cloud of dust. Hundreds of firefighters and civil defense personnel rushed to pull people and bodies from the rubble, while ambulances rushed the injured to several hospitals across the city.

Mexico City’s metro system is one of the largest in the world, and it carries about five million commuters per day. It’s central to the functioning of the capital city’s economy.

Inaugurated in 2012, Line 12 is one of the system’s most recent additions and runs between the neighborhoods of Tlahuac and Mixcoac, connecting commuters from the city’s outskirts to its downtown.

It was built when foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard was mayor of Mexico City.

“What happened today with the Metro is a terrible tragedy. My solidarity with the victims and their families,” Ebrard said in a post on social media.

Ebrard is now foreign minister and a key ally of Mexico’s president, which brings us to the political ramifications of this horrible tragedy. Not only might this spell the end of Mayor Sheinbaum’s political career, but thanks to the Ebrard connection, it will also reflect poorly on the government of AMLO, Mexico’s left-wing anti-establishment president who has been likened to Trump.

Though maybe AMLO will now be forced to take a page from the Biden playbook and pass his own $4 trillion “infrastructure” plan to finance more handouts to voters.

end

INFLATION WATCH...

(Daniel Lacalle)

Investors Do Not See “Transitory” Inflation

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 09:26 AM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank repeat that the recent inflationary spike is “transitory”. The problem is that investors do not buy it.

Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, and this time is not different. What central banks call transitory effects, and the impact of supply chains are not the real drivers of inflationary pressures. No one can deny certain supply shock impacts, but the correlation and extent of the increase in prices of agricultural and industrial commodities to five-year highs as well as the abrupt rise of non-replicable goods and services to decade-highs have monetary policy to blame.  Injecting trillions of liquidity makes more funds chase fewer goods and the rise in the real inflation perceived by citizens is much larger than the official CPI.

Take food prices. The United Nations Food Price Index is up 30% in the past five years and up 10% year-to-date (April 2021). The rise in food prices already caused protests all over the world in 2018 and it continues to reach new highs. The correlation in the price increase of most agricultural goods also shows that it is a monetary effect.

The same can be said about the Bloomberg Commodity Index which is also at five-year highs and up 15% year-to-date.

Yes, there have been some supply disruptions in a few commodities, but it is not widespread let alone the norm. If anything can be said is that the rise in agricultural and industrial commodities is happening despite the persistent overcapacity that many of these had already before the pandemic. We should also remember that one of the unintended consequences of massive monetary expansion is perpetuation of overcapacity. Excess capacity is refinanced and maintained even in crisis times. Therefore, we can argue that the rising cost of goods is not coming predominantly from supply shortages but in an environment of extended overcapacity, making it even more evident a monetary phenomenon.

We can discuss about the numerous ways in which governments disguise rising cost of goods and services in the official CPI (consumer price index), using debatable averages, excluding taxes, and underestimating the weight of some goods in a basket. In fact, the idea of CPI itself as created by the great economist Irving fisher was to disguise the abrupt rise in some goods by averaging the price change with others. Consumers were angry to see bread rise, say, 20%? What better idea than to include it in a basket of goods? However, that is not necessary. The reality is that the correlation in price moves and the aggressiveness of such changes show that most developed nation central banks simply will not change the course of monetary policy.

We know that central banks do not change course even if inflation is high and persistent because we have seen it in numerous countries, and almost every Southern European nation before the euro.

Governments always justify printing more money with the excuse that there is no inflation. When inflation rises, they say it is transitory. And when inflation soars, governments blame businesses and shop owners, presenting themselves as the solution with “price controls”.

Central banks are unable to normalize policy even with the evidence of a strong recovery because they are hostage to governments that simply refuse to reduce deficit spending while they cannot tolerate even a small rise in bond yields.

Investors know this and are looking for ways to protect their clients’ savings from inflation and an even more likely concern: stagflation. A rising number of funds are looking at a highly likely risk of stagnation after the chain of stimuli but with rising prices. Official CPI may not reflect the rise in healthcare, education, fresh food prices and rent, but citizens feel it.

There is a reason why in 2018 and 2019 we saw protests against the intolerable rise in cost of living all over Europe and emerging markets at the same time as central banks warned of the risk of deflation. The real cost of living is rising faster than what the official calculations suggest. It was a problem in 2018 and it is an even larger problem after 2020.

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDIA//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE UPDATE
 

Thailand, Laos Report Surging COVID Cases As India’s Outbreaks Spreads Across Asia

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 03:00 PM

Just as the WHO feared, India’s brutal second wave has spilled over its borders, sending COVID-19 cases rising across the region, as cases climb in neighboring Bhutan and Nepal and as far away as Laos and Thailand.

According to Bloomberg, the acceleration in the region is mainly due to more contagious mutant strains, like the B.1617 variant first identified in India, which has been now been traced beyond its borders. The WHO has released a list of 10 mutant strains that it is keeping a close eye on.

New strains are identified every day as the virus continues to evolve, but only a handful make the WHO’s official watchlist as a “variant of interest” or the more serious designation “variant of concern,” which is generally defined as a mutated strain that’s more contagious, more deadly and more resistant to current vaccines and treatments.

Like in India, the surging case numbers are overwhelming health-care systems in Laos and elsewhere. Laos health minister last week sought medical equipment and supplies as cases jumped 200x in a month. Nepal is seeing hospitals quickly filling up and, like India, it’s running out of oxygen supplies. Health facilities are under pressure in Thailand, where 98% of new cases are from a more infectious mutant strain, while some island nations in the Pacific Ocean are facing their first waves of COVID.

Though it’s not obvious by glancing at the charts above, ranked by the change in newly recorded infections over the previous month, Laos came in first with a 22,000% increase, followed by Nepal and Thailand, both of which saw fresh caseload skyrocketing more than 1,000% on a month-over-month basis.

Source: Bloomberg

The abrupt outbreak in Laos, which only saw 60 total cases through April 20, shows the challenges facing some of the landlocked nations. Porous borders make it harder to clamp down on illegal crossings though entry is technically banned.

Although nowhere close to India’s population or flare-up in scope, the reported spikes in most of these countries have been far steeper, signaling the potential dangers of an uncontrolled spread. The resurgence, and first-time outbreaks in some places that largely avoided the scourge last year, heightens the urgency of delivering vaccine supplies to poorer, less influential countries and averting a protracted pandemic.

“It’s very important to realize that the situation in India can happen anywhere,” said Hans Kluge, the regional director at the World Health Organization for Europe, during a briefing last week. “This is still a huge challenge.”

To fight the outbreak, Communist Laos has ordered lockdowns in its capital Vientiane and banned travel between the capital and provinces. The health minister reached out to neighbors like Vietnam for aid, but it’s unclear whether much will be forthcoming.

Even Vietnam, which has among the lowest number of infections in Southeast Asia, is imposing curbs on public gatherings after reporting a 131% surge in new cases n April. With daily cases topping 3K last week for the first time since February, Malaysia is set to tighten restrictions May 6 through May 17 in six districts of Selangor, the country’s richest state.

But by far the most closely watched country is Thailand, which had been seeking to revive its ailing tourism industry after a successful effort to crack down and eliminate COVID-19. The country just reintroduced a two-week mandatory quarantine for all visitors, as the government forecasts for 2021 tourism revenue were just cut to 170 billion baht ($5.5 billion), from January’s expectations for 260 billion baht.

With the country’s public health system under pressure, authorities are trying to set up field hospitals to accommodate the flood of COVID-sickened patients. About 98% of cases in Thailand are of the variant first identified as linked to the UK mutant “Kent Strain” based on a sample of 500 people, according to Yong Poovorawan, chief of the Center of Excellence in Clinical Virology at Chulalongkorn University.

On the vaccine front, Thailand has launched a campaign on Tuesday to vaccinate 50K people living in a crowded river-side district of the capital Bangkok, as the country tries to contain a third wave of coronavirus infections.

 
 
end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY  morning 7:30 AM….

Euro/USA 1.2011 DOWN .0047 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL MIXED  

USA/ YEN 109.28 UP 0.195 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3859  DOWN   0.0044  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2342 UP .0061 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 47 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.2011 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 28.04 PTS OR .91% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 199.60 PTS OR 0.70%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.50% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL MIXED  

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL MIXED  

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang UP 199.60 PTS OR 0.70%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.04 PTS OR .91% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.50%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 244.34 PTS OR .83%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1782.15

silver:$26.72-

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.606% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.285 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 91.28  DOWN 34 CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.44% DOWN 3  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.095%  UP 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.43%//  DOWN 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.87 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 44 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.23% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.07% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2019  DOWN     .0040 or 40 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.34  UP .252 OR YEN DOWN 25  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3872 DOWN .0031 POUND DOWN 31  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 32 basis points to 1.2313

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (DOWN).. 6.4738

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.750  (YUAN DOWN)..6.4860

TURKISH LIRA:  8.32  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.095%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.585 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.271 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 91.30  UP 35  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 54.94 PTS OR 0.79% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 383.76 PTS OR 2.52% 

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 67,68PTS OR 1.07% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN  80.60  PTS OR  0.91%  

 

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 462.94 PTS OR 1.90% 

 

WTI Oil price; 65.41 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 68.85 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    74.94  THE CROSS  LOWER BY 0.04 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 4 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.23 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 65.69//

BRENT :  68.84

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.588..down 2 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.264 down 2 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.2013 (down 45   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.32 UP .229 (YEN DOWN 23 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 91.30 UP  35  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3887 DOWN 16  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.33

the Russian rouble 74.95   UP 0.05 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP  5 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2305  down  25 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.23%

The Dow closed UP 19.80 POINTS OR 0.06%

NASDAQ closed down 255.05 POINTS OR 1.85%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.76 CLOSED up 1.45

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.176%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

May The Fourth Be Not With The Doves

 
 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 04:00 PM

As many celebrate Star Wars Day, Janet Yellen stepped up to the plate to deliver, warning that “interest rates will have to rise to ensure the economy does not overheat.”

“I felt a great disturbance in the farce, as if millions of dovish voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.”

Bear in mind that money-markets have been discounting a rate-hike far sooner than The Fed’s dot-plot forecast would suggest for months…

Source: Bloomberg

“Every client call I’m on including the one I just finished … is talking about overheating,” CNBC cited BackRock’s CIO Rick Rieder as saying.

So this move today is more of a wake-up call for stocks than anything else. The Dow scrambled back to unchanged (King Kong Yellen ain’t got shit on me…). Nasdaq suffered its worst day since mid-March and is down 5 of the last 6 days…

European stocks also puked…

Source: Bloomberg

“Dammit, Janet!”

We do note that we suspect a “just kidding” clarification is coming as The White House confirmed that Yellen will join the press briefing on Friday. Press Secretary Psaki says the Biden administration takes “inflationary risk incredibly seriously.”

Fed’s Kaplan continued his ‘cover your ass’ warnings:

  • *KAPLAN: SHOULD BE AWARE OF IMPACT OF LOW RATES ON ASSET PRICES

Year-to-date, Nasdaq 100 is the laggard now, up 4.7%… while Dow Transports are up a stunning 24.7%…

Source: Bloomberg

Seems like Biden’s Tax malarkey took the shine off the Growth trade…

Source: Bloomberg

Trannies have regained all their relative underperformance versus Nasdaq 100 since March 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

The Nasdaq found support at its 50DMA…

Russell 2000 broke below its 50DMA (and didn’t recover)…

“Most Shorted” stocks are down 6 straight days and today was the biggest drop since March…

Source: Bloomberg

FAAMG stocks were hammered…

Source: Bloomberg

Semis are down 5 of the last 6 days and broke below key technical levels today…

Source: Bloomberg

Ether continued its recent rampage to new record highs (above $3500) before falling after Yellen’s comments…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was clubbed like a baby seal…

Source: Bloomberg

BTC’s weakness relative to ETH sent the ratio soaring once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, Dogecoin ripped to become the 4th largest cryptocurrency…

Source: Bloomberg

And bullion was battered on Janet’s jawboning…

The dollar spiked on Yellen’s comments but gave it all back after running stops from yesterday’s highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all lower today, led by the long-end (30Y -3bps). NOTE, very similar pattern to yesterday in terms of buying and selling..

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yield dropped back below 1.60%(though chopped around a little on Yellen’s comments)…

Source: Bloomberg

 

Source: Bloomberg

WTI managed gains today, unfazed by Yellen, holding above $65 ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

Silver lost $27 today…

Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index continued its surge to the highest since 2011…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we wonder how investors would cope if the S&P 500 were to fall back to its global liquidity support level (only around 3900)?

Source: Bloomberg

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//THIS AFTERNOON/

 

end

 
ii) Market data
USA overall trade deficit hits a record $74.4 billion in March.  This number must be subtracted from GDP to get growth in the USA
(zero hedge)
 

US Trade Deficit Hits Record High In March

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 08:37 AM

After the 2018-2019 rebound in the US Trade Balance to a three year low (as Trump ‘adjusted’ US-China’s relationship), the trade deficit has surged from the start of the pandemic to the latest data in March, at $74.4 billion – the largest trade deficit in US history (from $71.1 billion a month earlier), in line with expectations.

Source: Bloomberg

The March goods deficit ($90.6 billion) was the highest on record, and the March non-petroleum deficit ($88.8 billion) was the highest on record.

Overall, imports rose 6.3% to a record $274.5 billion, while exports climbed 6.6% to $200 billion.

Source: Bloomberg

Exports

  • March exports of goods ($142.4 billion) were the highest since May 2018 ($142.7 billion).

  • March exports of industrial supplies and materials ($51.5 billion) were the highest on record.

  • March non-petroleum exports ($128.9 billion) were the highest on record.

Imports

  • March imports of goods ($233.0 billion) were the highest on record.

  • March imports of consumer goods ($65.1 billion) were the highest on record.

  • March imports of foods, feeds, and beverages ($14.0 billion) were the highest on record.

  • March imports of capital goods ($63.0 billion) were the highest on record.

  • March non-petroleum imports ($217.7 billion) were the highest on record.

The deficit with China increased $6.7 billion to $36.9 billion in March. Exports increased $0.9 billion to $11.3 billion and imports increased $7.6 billion to $48.2 billion.

end

US Factory Orders Disappoint In March

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 10:06 AM

After February’s dismal drop, blamed on weather, US factory orders were expected to rebound solidly in March (despite a mixed picture from Manufacturing surveys), but analysts were disappointed when the print hit at +1.1% (below the +1.3% expected) after February’s 0.8% drop was revised higher to a 0.5% drop.

Source: Bloomberg

Obviously, the 16.1% YoY surge is due to the ugliness of the comps from last March when the world stopped.

March’s rebound has pushed total factory orders above Sept 2018’s cycle peak

Source: Bloomberg

Is this as good as it gets? Judging by the stagflationary drop in production and surge in prices, it may well be…

Source: Bloomberg

Until the next round of government handout!!

END

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Biden raises refugee admission to 62,500 heeding to the wishes of his progressive wing in the party.

(zerohedge)

 

Biden Hikes Refugee Admission Cap To 62,500 After Outcry From Progressives

 
MONDAY, MAY 03, 2021 – 05:00 PM

Those wondering if Joe Biden is just a figurehead for the progressive/socialist wing in the Democratic party may have gotten their definitive answer today when Joe Biden announce that he will set the number of refugees who can enter the U.S. through September at 62,500 following cries of outrage from the progressives who blasted his earlier abandonment of that goal.

Biden’s capitulation ends a dizzying policy reversal by sticking with Biden’s original plan to dramatically increase the number of refugees that can be admitted into the U.S.

“Today, I am revising the United States’ annual refugee admissions cap to 62,500 for this fiscal year,” Biden said in a statement.

“This erases the historically low number set by the previous administration of 15,000, which did not reflect America’s values as a nation that welcomes and supports refugees.”

“It is important to take this action today to remove any lingering doubt in the minds of refugees around the world who have suffered so much, and who are anxiously waiting for their new lives to begin,” Biden said.

The announcement comes two weeks after the White House said Biden would raise the limit by May 15, but signaled his initial target was not achievable. Biden said his decision to meet his original goal conveys his commitment to creating a more welcoming immigration system, which some of his supporters questioned after his backtracking.

At the same time, Biden said the U.S. would not meet its target of admitting 62,500 refugees this year. “We are working quickly to undo the damage of the last four years. It will take some time, but that work is already underway,” he said.

“The sad truth is that we will not achieve 62,500 admissions this year,” Biden wrote.

“We are working quickly to undo the damage of the last four years. It will take some time, but that work is already underway. We have reopened the program to new refugees. And by changing the regional allocations last month, we have already increased the number of refugees ready for departure to the United States.”

As The Hill notes, the administration initially called for raising the refugee cap to 125,000 by the end of Biden’s first year in office — a target that would require allowing 62,500 refugees fleeing war and natural disasters to enter the United States. The high figure was set to be a dramatic turnaround from the Trump administration, which limited the number of potential refugees allowed to enter the U.S. to 15,000 during their last year in office.

END

A good one…

the state of affairs inside USA now

(Conrad Black)

Conrad Black: A Turning In The American Political Road Is Almost At Hand

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 12:00 AM

Authored by Conrad Black, op-ed via The Epoch Times,

The only way to make any sense of the fierce crosscurrents sweeping over American political life now is to watch two trends that are only slightly connected.

First is the continuing great national sense of relief that the chaos and pandemonium of the Trump era is over.

There are not nightly cascades of provocative and frequently outrageous tweets and the days are not filled with confrontations in which the president’s enemies assault him like picadors, and he rises to every challenge like a compulsive single combat warrior.

To Trump’s scores of millions of admirers, he was merely returning fire from those who attacked him unfairly. To Trump’s enemies, his opponents were only doing their duty to assist in retarding the progress and hastening the departure of the Great Ogre.

To the independent voters, a beleaguered minority in the Trump era, it was Trump’s America, regardless of blame, and to the majority of Americans, the indignity inflicted upon the presidency and the strain of the constant din of needless and often witless combat became insufferable and had to end, whatever the policy consequences.

At its most acidulous, this was the Trump-hate vote, more benignly, it was the Trump-abatement vote. But the majority of people, including probably a majority of Trump voters, didn’t like it and simply could not stand the tumult of the Trump presidency.

Even thoughtful Americans who do not have confidence in Joe Biden and don’t approve of most of what he is doing, are still deeply grateful to be relieved of the nerve-racking cacophony of the Trump presidency.

This is what is chiefly supporting the Biden honeymoon 100 days into his presidency. Most of the polls remain politicized, inaccurate, and largely unprofessional, as they were in the late presidential election of ineradicable and horrifying memory (and result).

But the average of them seems to give this president approximately a 53 percent approval rating to about 42 percent negative. This is a solid and respectable result and a better showing than President Trump had any point in his term.

Though given that he was the subject of a completely unprecedented consistency and intensity of media and celebrity assault, his performance in the almost uniformly nasty and stacked polls entitles him to a special achievement award for carrying nearly 48 percent of the vote and probably forcing the Democrats to steal the Electoral College with harvested ballots in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and for producing so taut a political crisis that the Supreme Court ducked it (in the Texas challenge supported by 18 other states), assumedly under the mistaken assumption that that would spare them the threatened effort to pack the high court.

This total, the anti-Trump share of the honeymoon approval rate, as in all presidential honeymoons, is slowly declining. But it is also more vulnerable than other presidential honeymoon poll results, because it is not really based on any enthusiasm for Biden, but rather on the passage of something that has gone and is not threatening to return imminently.

The last time we saw anything of this kind was in the first year of President Nixon as the antiwar and race riots of the late Lyndon Johnson era faded, and in the Ford and early Carter years, when there was no longer any reason to think of Watergate.

The second indicator of political opinion is the independent policy areas where the new administration’s performance is measured. Here, the sands are running out in the hour-clock for the Biden administration’s attempt to smoke far-left legislation through on the threadbare flying carpet of anti-Trumpism.

The vulnerability of President Biden’s position is underscored by the fact that apart from his handling of the coronavirus and related problems, the majority disapprove of his performance in all other areas, most markedly the southern border and immigration, but also including the economy, foreign policy, and law and order and public security.

Approximately 90 percent of Americans believe that there should be a border and a process to entering the country; over 80 percent unconditionally oppose violent demonstrations and riots, the overwhelming majority support adequate police protection, if with more sophisticated rules in armed confrontations, and there is little enthusiasm for increased taxes or profligate spending.

The principal anti-Trump television networks seem to have lost about 50 percent of their viewers and the public clearly is not much interested in an indefinite continuation of mudslinging and defamation against the former president, either as a substitute for the new administration presenting and executing its policies, or for the national political media restoring a substantial element of professional reporting where for the previous four years it had self-righteously substituted Trump-hate.

It is of the nature of polling that unpleasant memories of former presidents recede and the prestigious fact of them having been presidents and in many cases the highlights of their presidencies remain comparatively well fixed in the public mind.

Herbert Hoover and Richard Nixon were generally reviled when they left office, but after some years they came again to be recognized as outstanding figures of American public life. President Trump was not generally a quick learner in the art of public relations while he was president, but it must be said that he has played his hand skillfully these last three months.

The initial post-inaugural efforts to torment him endlessly, portray him as an advocate of insurrection and to suborn and extort evidence against him in all manner of ubiquitously alleged imminent proceedings while pretending there was some comparison to be made between Jan. 6 and 9/11, has been a complete failure.

All the headlines and television news introductions that the Trump mob had killed capitol police officer Brian Sicknick have been exposed as pure fabrication, a campaign of outright lies. All the allegations against the Trump campaign organization of incitement of the vandalism at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 have proved to be unfounded.

And throughout these three months the former president has issued press releases without hyperbole and has given relatively few interviews and only one major speech and on every occasion he has been judicious.

Joe Biden does well with the public as an apparently amiable personality, and he probably deserves credit for at least bringing to serious consideration a far more radically left agenda than the public would approve of, in a way that has not squandered the general perception of him as a likable person.

But we are almost at the point where this administration’s attempt to revolutionize American elections by practically abolishing any verification process for ballots and turning election day into a weeks-long orgy of ballot-harvesting, while packing the Senate and the Supreme Court and gagging congressional minorities, will collide with public opposition to all of these measures.

In those circumstances, the Supreme Court, its attempt at appeasement of the Democrats by abdicating as head of a co-equal third branch of government having failed, might also reassert the legitimacy of the Constitution.

A turning in the road is almost at hand.

end

Biden said this today: Anybody making less than $400,000 will not pay a single penny in taxes!!

sign me up!

(zerohedge)

Biden: “Anybody Making Less Than $400,000 Will Not Pay A Single Penny In Taxes”

 
MONDAY, MAY 03, 2021 – 09:40 PM

Want to see “objective” fact checkers like Snopes, Politifact or Newsguard explode? Just send them this clip of whisper-mode Joe and ask them if it’s true…

Read my lips…

 
end
 
FBI
 
D’Souza is perfectly correct:  Abolish the FBI as we have unequal applications of the law
 
(Dinesh D’Souza)

D’Souza: Abolish The FBI

 
MONDAY, MAY 03, 2021 – 08:00 PM

Authored by Dinesh D’Souza, op-ed via The Epoch Times,

For a long time, the FBI has stood as the admirable symbol of a police agency of government, implacably going after the bad guys and neutrally enforcing the laws. This is the FBI of the movie “The Untouchables,” in which special agent Eliot Ness leads his devoted crew of armed agents in a heroic battle against the forces of organized crime.

Well, forget about the Untouchables. Today’s FBI has quite obviously been corrupted from the top. This is a process that seems to have begun under President Barack Obama, endured during the Donald Trump years, and has now reached its unfortunate nadir under President Joe Biden. It’s time for conservatives and Republicans to start thinking about getting rid of the FBI.

I want to highlight two sets of contrasting episodes that give us a window into how biased and partisan this once-respected agency has now become.

Contrast the treatment the FBI has given to Jan. 6 activists with that it has afforded to Antifa and Black Lives Matter protesters.

The FBI has unrelentingly hunted down Jan. 6 protesters, in many cases confronting Trump supporters who were merely in Washington at the time, or at the mall rally but not involved in entering the Capitol. Those who have been arrested have been treated like domestic terrorists, captured in raids involving drawn weapons, even though the charges against most of them amount to little more than trespassing or entering a government facility without proper permission. Nonviolent offenders have been given the same brutal treatment as violent ones. And to this day the FBI promulgates images—a grandma here, a teenager there—asking the public to help them track down still-at-large individuals who had something, anything, to do with the events of Jan. 6.

Contrast this concentrated effort with the lackadaisical, even disinterested, approach of the FBI to the Antifa and Black Lives Matter activists. Over a period of many months, those activists have proven far more violent. They have killed a number of people, in contrast to the Trump activists who killed nobody. (The only person killed on Jan. 6 was Ashli Babbitt, a Trump supporter shot in the neck by a Capitol police officer.) They have looted businesses, burned churches, assaulted police officers, attacked and harassed ordinary citizens eating in restaurants or going about their normal lives—and all with impunity. No FBI raids, no systematic arrests, no dissemination of “Wanted” images on social media.

Now I turn to my second contrast: the recent FBI raid on Rudy Giuliani’s home and office, while there has been no raid on the home or office of New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Start with Giuliani: The ostensible justification for the raid was to look for evidence Giuliani violated the Foreign Agents Registration Act.

Giuliani pointed out in a statement released by his lawyer, however, that he offered to sit down with the FBI and the Biden Department of Justice (DOJ) and show them to their satisfaction that there had been no violation of law. Moreover, Giuliani had for several months been offering the FBI clear evidence, corroborated by texts and emails, that Hunter Biden not only allegedly failed to register as a foreign agent, but also that he was allegedly involved in child pornography, money laundering, and an elaborate Biden family scheme to sell their political access in exchange for millions of dollars in personal gain.

Both the FBI and the DOJ showed no interest in any of that. Consequently, Giuliani seems warranted in concluding that the agency’s conduct is a “clear example of a corrupt double standard”: “One for high-level Democrats whose blatant crimes are ignored, such as Hillary Clinton, Hunter Biden, and Joe Biden” and quite another for “Republicans who are prominent supporters and defender of President Trump.”

Giuliani further revealed that the FBI and DOJ had in late 2019 obtained access to his email database without notifying him. This means that while Giuliani was advising his client Donald Trump during the impeachment process—a relationship fully protected by attorney–client privilege—the FBI violated the law while supposedly investigating Giuliani and Trump’s possible violations of law.

Here, again, the FBI’s extreme diligence in going after Giuliani can be contrasted with the FBI’s failure to act in the case of Gov. Cuomo. Cuomo is currently involved in two separate scandals, one involving multiple women who have accused him of sexual harassment, and another involving his direct involvement in a cover-up scheme to hide the magnitude of nursing home deaths caused by his own policies.

According to the New York Times, the Cuomo administration was far more culpable than previously known in deliberately undercounting nursing home deaths over a period of five months. Let’s recall that these deaths need not have occurred. At the direction of the Trump administration, the U.S. Navy dispatched a hospital ship Comfort to New York to accept non-coronavirus patients and thus lessen the burden on New York hospitals.

Gov. Cuomo, however, turned the ship away to spite the Trump administration and instead ordered New York nursing homes to accept the overflow of COVID-19 patients, helping the virus to spread among vulnerable nursing home populations and thus causing thousands of unnecessary deaths.

Then, when the Trump administration inquired about the nursing home data in New York, Cuomo instructed his state health officials, including the health commissioner Howard Zucker, not to release the true death toll to the federal government, state officials, or the general public. Cuomo also suppressed a research paper that revealed the data and blocked two letters by Zucker’s department from being sent to state legislators.

While Giuliani’s offense remains unclear, Cuomo is guilty of obvious abuses of power—actions that have not only put people in their graves but also amounted, in a statistical sense, to “hiding the bodies.” Again, the FBI is nowhere to be found, and the reason for its absence appears to be that Cuomo is a Democratic governor who seemingly enjoys immunity as far as today’s FBI and Biden’s DOJ are concerned.

Enough is enough! When justice no longer involves the neutral or equal application of the laws, it ceases to be justice. I realize, of course, that there will be no FBI reform under Biden. Therefore, I strongly urge the Republican Party to make abolition of the FBI—shutting down the agency and then reconstructing it from the ground up—key provisions of its campaigns both in 2022 and 2024.

 

Dinesh D’Souza is an author, filmmaker, and daily host of the Dinesh D’Souza podcast.

end
Michael Every on what to expect on the Bill Gates/Belinda Gates divorce proceeding and other major topics of the day…
(zerohedge)

Forget Decoupling: Divorce Is A “Shock Wave”

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 08:45 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

It’s not as if we are short of big picture themes right now: vaccines vs. vacillation; inflation, hyperinflation, disinflation, or deflation; tax and spend vs. no tax and spend vs. no tax and no spend; crypto vs. Tales From the Crypt-o; fast US-China decoupling,…or slow US-China decoupling; and even war or peace. No new developments on any of them today, however.

Instead, the focus is obviously on that most crucial of developments: that Bill and Melinda Gates are divorcing after 27 years. As Bloomberg puts it, “Their separation is likely to send shock waves through the worlds of philanthropy, public health, and business.

And equal waves of excitement through divorce lawyers given there is allegedly no pre-nuptial agreement in place and a USD130bn pot of assets to divide. (Which is larger than the 2019 GDP of 153 of the world’s 213 economies and territories, with the cut-off point being Kuwait, and Ukraine potentially the next one in line – the second time I have had to use that phrase in very different contexts in recent weeks.)

But really, why the “shock waves”?

Did Amazon stumble after the Bezos divorce? Hardly.

Does the Gates divorce somehow prevent the philanthropy that sees them oppose developing nations being allowed to produce generic versions of Covid-19 vaccines? Yes, that won’t solve the terrible problem in India right now given the issue is physical supply – but arguably if everyone could produce vaccines to begin with, then there would be far fewer crises in the first place. That message –right or wrong– backs countries not relying on global supply chains in the future. Or finding a ‘vaccine-daddy’ that they *really* trust. And of course, this is about more than vaccine: what will the next crisis be? What will we be lacking then? Semiconductors are an obvious example, and it will be years before we sort that mess out, apparently. But there are many other critical goods supplies which billionaire neoliberal CEOs have “assumed away” in their world-is-flat business models. Of course, some countries have been thinking much further ahead: the not-so (neo)liberal ones. The EU is slowly catching on, based on the news reported here yesterday; as is the UK based on this report.

Back to the “shock waves”. Does the Gates divorce mark the end of anti-competitive business practices that sometimes end up in court? To say this is unlikely is an understatement, looking at the front page of the Wall Street Journal today. It also seems to ignore that the business model of much of the tech ‘disruption’ we see around us is: “We bleed money now, but once we are the ONLY global firm doing X, we are the next Bill Gates.” Except unlike Microsoft, current market valuations for tech are propelling many firms close at least ‘entry-level’ billionaire status long before every business and household has actually had to buy the product. Didn’t Andy Warhol say one day we would all be famous for 15 minutes? Maybe now we all get to be Bill Gates.

And who gets the land in this divorce, not the house, given the Gates are the largest private farmland holders in the US, with 242,000 acres? That is a lot of space on which to “carry out research to help breed chickens that lay better-quality eggs and cows that produce more milk for farms in South Asia and Africa”.

So perhaps the Gates divorce “shock wave” is just because everyone in financial markets and media, philanthropy, public health, and business are out-and-out romantics(?) Yes, that must be it.

Anyway, enough celebrity gossip and time for some more of the bigger-picture narratives: except it’s hard to tell the two apart. In particular, the Philippines’ Foreign Affairs Secretary just went ‘Wolf Warrior’ to use his personal Twitter account for a four-letter word tirade against China, demanding it remove its ships from a disputed area. (To clarify, the dispute is that international law and the Philippines say the waters are theirs: China says it isn’t, and is acting like it.) President Duterte then had to state on TV that “China remains our benefactor. Just because we have a conflict with China doesn’t mean that we have to be rude or disrespectful,” as he negotiates delivery of up to 4m doses of Sinovac vaccine, and 2m of Russia’s Sputnik V – for a population of 111m. See what I mean about philanthropy and supply chains? But don’t worry: those better-quality eggs are coming real soon.

And down to Australia, where the RBA meet today in their latest studious attempt to pay no real attention to the world or economy around them. Will there be recognition of the “drums of war” flagged recently? Of course not. There will be vague and unreliable snapshots of what they think the Chinese economy is doing. Will there be recognition of the house-price rises that are pretty bonza even by Aussie standards, while the only other people who can do something about it, APRA, say it literally “isn’t their job”? Of course not. Expect something incredibly anodyne instead. One could say that the RBA only start to use more interesting language about housing when the market is going down: the higher it goes, the drier the lexicon becomes.

Given that this is the case, and that we can expect rates on hold, and QE on hold, and less-and-less-credible YCC on hold, and a copy and paste statement to boot, perhaps we should look at the latest headlines from an Aussie gossip mag instead? As New Idea Magazine (“Australia’s most loved weekly magazine, featuring the latest celebrity news, real life stories, exclusive interviews, recipes, health and more.”) excitingly reports: ‘Yes, it’s a wig’: MAFS’ Melissa shuts down critics on her new look; and if you think that is market-moving, try Princess Eugenie shares rare pics of baby August for Jack Brooksbank’s birthday. It’s all heady stuff, even if they aren’t covering the Gates divorce for some reason.

But what some of us wouldn’t give for some New Idea economics Down Under.

Or All Over. We live in hope

/CORONAVIRUS UPATE/ USA

iv) Swamp commentaries/

(Gateway Pundit)

Alan Dershowitz: Raid On Rudy Giuliani’s Home Makes America Look Like A Banana Republic

By Mike LaChance 
Published May 3, 2021 at 11:08pm

 

Dershowitz Compares US to Banana Republic for Search Warrant on Giuliani

Harvard Law Professor Emeritus Alan Dershowitz compared the United States to a banana republic for the search warrant carried out by federal investigators at the Manhattan apartment of Rudy Giuliani.

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Speaking Sunday on “The Cats Roundtable” radio show hosted by John Catsimatidis on WABC 770 AM, Dershowitz said he has agreed to represent Giuliani and is “very upset” about what’s happening to the former New York City mayor and personal lawyer to former President Donald Trump.

“In banana republics, in Castro’s Cuba, in many parts of the world, when a candidate loses for president, they go after the candidate, they go after his lawyers, they go after his friends,” Dershowitz said. “That didn’t happen in America. That’s happening in America now. They’re going after Rudy Giuliani … Who knows who’s going to be next?”

Dershowitz stressed that “You don’t use search warrants when people have privileged information on their cell phones and in their computers. You use a subpoena. The difference between a subpoena and a search warrant is like night and day.”

 

 
END
 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

@Breaking911: PRES. BIDEN: “Anybody making less than $400,000 a year will not pay a single penny in taxes.  And we will not increase the deficit either, unlike the last gigantic tax cut, which increased the deficit by $2 trillion…” https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1389279329335529476

@WSJecon: President Biden and his aides argue that more direct government support is a better way to support most Americans, and they see a clear trade-off between policies they say favor affluent winners over lower-income households.  https://t.co/Z6uXPTZLey

The U.S. Treasury boosted its estimate of federal borrowing needs for the three months through June to incorporate the latest Covid-19 spending package   https://t.co/Jj3J26VybR

Will the people that supported, funded, and elected Biden admit to the consequences of their deeds?

Chicken prices rise as poultry plants struggle to find workers [Still transitory?]  https://yhoo.it/3vAarNV

Intel’s CEO Says Chip Shortage Could Last “A Couple of Years” in New ’60 Minutes’ Interview
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/intels-ceo-says-chip-shortage-could-last-couple-years-new-60-minutes-interview

Fed’s Williams says inflation to top 2% for rest of the year but decline after economy is recovered
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-williams-says-inflation-to-top-2-for-rest-of-the-year-but-decline-after-economy-is-recovered-11620066120

ISM’s Manufacturing Index for April unexpectedly dropped to 60.7 from 64.7; 65.7 was expected.  Prices Paid jumped to 89.6 from 85.6; 86 was expected.  Prices Paid has been above 90 once since the ‘70s.  New Orders declined to 64.3 from 68; 69.5 was consensus.

@inflation_guy: ISM Prices Paid at 89.6. It has only been above 90 once since the 1970s. (At the time we were already sliding into a housing crash). Note that this is a relative measure so it only stays high if pressures continuously increase. 1973-74 was the only time it spent >2m over 90.
https://twitter.com/inflation_guy/status/1389220305873276929

The US 5-year breakeven rate (Inflation Expectation) hit 2.6249%.  A move above 2.6524, the March high would be very bad.

@charliebilello: Lumber closed at another all-time high, more than quadrupling over the last year.

Wards Total Vehicle Sales for April jumped to 18.51m from 17.75m; 17.6m was expected.

March Construction Spending increased only 0.2% m/m; 1.6% was consensus.

@bespokeinvest: One of the sources of today’s weak construction spending release was the collapse of the mall.
The Biden Tax and Spend Plan & The Big Cycle Swing
President Biden’s proposed $1.8 trillion American Families Plan on top of his $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan and his $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan together make the biggest increase in government spending since the big Roosevelt increases. Like the Roosevelt New Deal, the Biden plan is a bold move to radically reform and redistribute wealth and opportunities and to stimulate the economy
    What’s happening is classic and cyclical—i.e., we are seeing the left-right pendulum that has big swings back and forth between 1) more government, more redistributions of wealth and income, and less fiscal and monetary discipline, and 2) less government and fewer redistributions of wealth and income swing sharply to policies of type 1) (left) from policies of type 2) (right) for logical reasons that have timelessly and universally caused these swings. To put where we are in the cycle in perspective by looking at where we have come from over the last 100 years, that cycle has transpired as follows…
   Another significant reason that the income taxes paid by the wealthier aren’t much higher is that currently much of it comes in as private business earnings (e.g., partnerships or S-corps), which come with a much lower tax rate. Biden is aiming to close this discrepancy.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/biden-tax-spend-plan-big-cycle-swing-ray-dalio/

Will the people that supported, funded, and elected Biden admit to the consequences of their deeds?

Biden team may partner with private firms to monitor extremist chatter online
[The radicals that run Biden want to use private firms to spy on Americans.  Soviet America has arrived!]
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/03/politics/dhs-partner-private-firms-surveil-suspected-domestic-terrorists/index.html

Biden raises refugee cap to 62,500 amid progressive [AKA radicals] outcry https://t.co/ngxwsyFjrs

GOP @SenTomCotton: Increasing the refugee admissions cap will put American jobs and safety at risk. The Biden administration should be focused on getting Americans back to work.

Rudy Giuliani says the feds ‘are trying to frame me’ https://t.co/tUyeRIDPfP

@aishaismad: Actual quotes from this new CIA recruitment ad: “I am a woman of color” “I am a cisgender millennial” “I have been diagnosed with generalized anxiety disorder” “I am intersectional”
I think it’s safe to say the contemporary American left has failed.
https://twitter.com/aishaismad/status/1388963034274701316

@RealSaavedra: Biden is turning every U.S. institution into an embarrassing freak show. The world is laughing at us.

Will the people that supported, funded, and elected Biden admit to the consequences of their deeds?

@disclosetv: Former Democrat House Majority Speaker for the state of Oregon, Dave Hunt, was arrested and charged over human sex trafficking (Portland Tribune)
https://pamplinmedia.com/pt/9-news/507253-405959-former-oregon-house-speaker-dave-hunt-cited-in-sex-trafficking-sting?wallit_nosession=1

end

 

I WILL SEE  YOU WEDNESDAY NIGHT

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