MAY 5//GOLD CLOSED UP $7.45 TO $1784.35//SILVER UP ONE CENT TO $26.46//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING ADVANCES FOR MAY TO 4.1057//SILVER STANDING: 37.270 MILLION OZ//CORONAVIRUS UPDATES//VACCINE UPDATES//CHINA WISHES TO DOMINATE THE INTERNET//SAUID ARABIA WISHES TO MAKE AMENDS WITH SYRIA//ROCKETS RAIN ON USA INTERESTS IN IRAQ//ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS INDICATE GAINS BUT STILL 8 MILLION POOR SOULS LESS WITHOUT A JOB THAN PRE COVID //INFLATION WATCH: PPI STRONG IN EUROPE//PMI SERVICE REPORT INDICATES STAGLATION IN THE USA//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT..

GOLD:$1784.35   UP $7.45   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$26.46  UP  $0.01   London spot price ( cash market)

your data.

 
 
 

Closing access prices:  London spot

i)Gold : $1787.90 LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

ii)SILVER:  $26.51//LONDON SPOT  4:30 pm

For the day…

*The DOW up
*NASDAQ up
*S&P up
*Oil up
*Copper up
*Gold up
*Bitcoin up
*Silver DOWN

 

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINIUM  $1229.52 DOWN $12.07

PALLADIUM: 2972.92 DOWN $24.09  PER OZ.

 

 

James McShirley on the pricing of gold eagles/and silver eagle

James Mc late this afternoon… May 3

Coin premiums to spot widening- Silver Eagles look like around 50%+ to spot. Gold Eagles +$170 to spot. How long can they keep this derivatives charade going?

Jim McShirley

May 5: Jim McShirley:

Meanwhile the separation between physical and spot continues to increase. Gold Eagles are now showing +$180 or more to spot on several popular sites. Silver Eagles are +$13 and up to spot. If you ignore the ticker going by on cable news gold is nearly $2k in the real world, silver $40. That’s still a pittance, but nothing like MSM is presenting to the public.

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DATA

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,775.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/04/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 05/06/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 4
661 C JP MORGAN 1 14
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 16
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 18 18
MONTH TO DATE: 752

ISSUED: 0

Goldman Sachs:  stopped: 0

 
 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY. CONTRACT: 18 NOTICE(S) FOR 1800 OZ  (0.0559 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  752 NOTICES FOR 75200 OZ  (2.3390 tonnes) 

SILVER//MAY CONTRACT

 

74 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 370,000  OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  :6210 for 31,050,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $55,264   UP 811 DOLLARS

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$57,111 UP 2658 DOLLARS  

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

WITH ALL REFINER CLOSED//MEXICO ORDERING ALL MINES SHUT:   WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THE “PHYSICAL?

A SMALL  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//:   A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.

 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE B OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD: 1,018.20 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER  UP 1 CENT

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//  

 

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHDRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULTS. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT:

567.481  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 167.31 UP $0.73 OR  0.44%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 24.52 down $0.00 OR 0.00%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

THE COMEX OI IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 3,566CONTRACTS FROM 170,639 DOWN TO 167,073, AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. THE LOSS IN OI OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE $0.45 FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON TUESDAY. IT SEEMS THAT THE GAIN IN COMEX OI IS PRIMARILY DUE TO  HUGE BANKER AND ALGO  SHORT COVERING !//GOOD REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.. COUPLED AGAINST A STRONG EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO  HAD ZERO/MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION 

 

WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR  NUMBER OF  COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 2650,, AS WE HAD THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCE: MAY:  0, JUNE: 0 JULY 2650 AND ZERO ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE 2650 CONTRACTS. THE BANKERS ARE NOW BEING BITTEN BY THOSE SERIAL FORWARDS (EFP’S CIRCULATING IN LONDON)AS THEY ARE NOW BEING EXERCISED AND COMING BACK TO NEW YORK FOR REDEMPTION OF METAL.  THE COST TO SERVICE THESE SERIAL FORWARDS IS HIGH TO OUR BANKERS  BUT THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ISSUE A FEW OF THEM! SILVER IS IN BACKWARDATION AND AS SUCH THE DANGER TO OUR BANKERS IS LONDONERS WILL PURCHASE CHEAPER FUTURES METAL OVER HERE AND THEN TAKE DELIVERY.

HISTORY OF SILVER OZ STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR THE PAST 33 MONTHS.

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.:

27.120 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

3.875 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN APRIL.

18.845 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN MAY.

2.660 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN JUNE//

22.605 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR JULY

10.025   MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING IN AUGUST.

43.030   MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN SEPT. (HUGE)

7.32     MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT

2.630     MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOV.

20.970   MILLION OZ  FINAL STANDING IN DEC

2020

5.075     MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JAN

1.480    MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN FEB

23.005  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAR 

4.660  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL

45.220 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MAY***(5THHIGHEST RECORDED STANDING FOR SILVER)

2.205  MILLION OF FINAL STANDING FOR JUNE

86.470MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN JULY…RECORD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

6.475 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN AUGUST

55.400MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN SEPT (3RD HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

8.900 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STANDING IN OCT.

3.950 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING IN NOV.

46.685 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR DEC. (4TH HIGHEST RECORDED STANDING)

2021

60 MILLION FINAL STANDING FOR JAN 2021

12.020  MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR FEB 2021

58.425 MILLION OZ FINAL STANDING FOR MARCH 2021//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED

14.935 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR APRIL

37.270 MILLION OZ INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY 

 

TUESDAY, AGAIN OUR CROOKS USED COPIOUS PAPER TRYING TO LIQUIDATE SILVER’S PRICE …AND THEY WERE
SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT FELL BY $0.45). OUR OFFICIAL SECTOR/BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO FLEECE ANY SILVER LONGS AS  WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 916 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  THE GAIN WAS DUE TO i) SOME BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING// WE ALSO HAD  iii) GOOD REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.    iv)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS 2) A VERY STRONG INITIAL  SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 37.700 MILLION OZ AND THEN FALLING TO 37.270 MILLION OZ ON DAY 4, v) STRONG COMEX OI LOSS //.YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT OUR BANKERS  ARE DESPERATE TO LIQUIDATE THEIR HUGE SHORT POSITIONS IN SILVER..
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

 

MAY

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY /FOR MONTH OF A MAY:

7520 CONTRACTS (FOR 3 TRADING DAY(S) TOTAL 7520 CONTRACTS) OR 37.60 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2506 CONTRACTS OR 12.53 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAY: 37.60MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON

JAN EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:  113.735 MILLION OZ

FEB EFP ACCUMULATION FINAL:   208.18 MILLION OZ (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

MAR EFP ACCUMULATION SO FAR: : 103.450 MILLION OZ  (DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//FEARS OF EFP CONTRACTS BEING EXERCISED FOR METAL)

APRIL: 84.730 MILLION OZ  (SILVER IS NOW IN SEVERE BACKWARDATION AND THUS DRAMATICALLY FEWER ISSUANCE OF EFP’S)

MAY: 37.60 MILLION OZ. (SILVER IS STILL IN SEVER BACKWARDATION)

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG DECREASE COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3566, WITH OUR $0.45 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ///TUESDAY .THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2650 CONTRACTS WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.

TODAY WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 916 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES (WITH OUR  $0.45 FALL IN PRICE)//THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY// SOME BANKER SHORTCOVERING/  AND A VERY STRONG INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY. (37.770 MILLION OZ) FOLLOWED BY A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE AS SOME LONGS DECIDED TO RECEIVE AN EXTRA HUGE FIAT BONUS INSTEAD OF WAITING FOR COMEX SILVER.. ..NOW THE AMOUNT STANDING IS.. DOWN TO 37.270 MILLION OZ) 

 

THE TALLY//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS

i.e  2650 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s)TOGETHER WITH A STRONG SIZED INCREASE OF 9070 OI COMEX CONTRACTS.AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.45 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER/AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $26.45//TUESDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY. 

FOR THE NEW MAY.  DELIVERY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 228XX NOTICE(S) FOR 1,140,000, OZ OF SILVER.

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUG 22.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $14.70//TODAY’S RECORD OF 244,705 WAS SET WITH A PRICE OF: 18.91 (FEB 25/2020)

AND YET, WITH THE SILVER IN BACKWARDATION (INDICATING SCARCITY), WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT)

 
 
 
 

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 5032 CONTRACTS TO 470,341,AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE  OF $14.80///COMEX GOLD TRADING//TUESDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE ALSO HAD ZERO/MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 2178 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.  WE ALSO HAD A STRONG  INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 3.530 TONNES TO WHICH WE HAD A GOOD QUEUE JUMP OF 500 OZ ON DAY NO 4 AND NOW 4.1057 TONNES ARE STANDING. THIS FOLLOWED A STRONG APRIL AT 95.331 TONNES. 

 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $14.80 WITH RESPECT TO  TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 2,178 OI CONTRACTS (6.774 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2854 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  AND JUNE:  2854  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 3956.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 470,341. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2,178 CONTRACTS: 5032 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2854 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS OF 2178 CONTRACTS OR 6.774 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3138) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI  (5032 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2,178CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1 HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS OUR BANKERS ARE RUNNING FROM DODGE AND CONSIDERABLE ALGO SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY AT 3.530 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER QUEUE JUMP ON DAY 4 OF 500 OZ//NEW STANDING FOR MAY: 4.1057 TONNES 

3) ZERO/MINOR LONG LIQUIDATION,  /// ;4) GOOD COMEX OI LOSS AND 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND ….ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN GOLD PRICE TRADING TUESDAY//$14.80!!.

SPREADING OPERATIONS/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD  (WE SWITCH OVER TO GOLD ON MAY  1)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED IN GOLD  AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE.

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

 
 

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

.

AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS COMMENTARIES:

“AS YOU WILL SEE, THE CROOKS WILL NOW SWITCH TO GOLD AS THEY INCREASE THE OPEN INTEREST FOR THE SPREADERS. THE TOTAL COMEX SILVER OPEN INTEREST WILL RISE FROM NOW ON UNTIL ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE AND THAT IS WHEN THEY START THEIR CRIMINAL LIQUIDATION.

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE IN THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN GOLD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 
 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 9,948, CONTRACTS OR 994,800 oz OR 30.94 TONNES (3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3547 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 30.94 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 30.94/3550 x 100% TONNES =0.88% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE:
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        30.94 TONNES

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3566 CONTRACTS FROM 170,639 DOWN TO 167,073 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  2 3/4 YEARS AGO.  

 

EFP ISSUANCE 2650 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 MAY: 0 AND JUNE: 0, JULY 2650: 0ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2650 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 3566 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2650 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A FAIR  SIZED LOSS OF 916 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4.580 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.45 LOSS IN PRICE///

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge + OTHER COMMENTARIES

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 28.04 PTS OR .81%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 139.16 PTS OR  0.49%     /The Nikkei closed down 241.34 pts or .83%  //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.28%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4736 /Oil DOWN TO 65.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN   //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4736. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4597   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 
 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

CHINA VS USA//

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A GOOD SIZED 5032 CONTRACTS TO 470,341 MOVING FURTHER FROM TO  THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS GOOD SIZED  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS OF $14.80 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING…WE ALSO HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE (2854 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.  

WE HAVE ALSO  LATELY WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL….. AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS.

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED /FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2854 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;:  0, JUNE:  2854 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2854  CONTRACTS .(DESPITE THE STRONG BACKWARDATION IN GOLD FOR JUNE/AUG VS SPOT)

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED 2178  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2854 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST GOOD SIZED  COMEX OI  OF 5032 CONTRACTS.WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY(4.1057) WHICH FOLLOWED  (95.331 TONNES) IN APRIL, WHICH FOLLOWED MARCH:  (30.205 TONNES) WHICH FOLLOWED FEB (113.424 TONNES)  WHICH FOLLOWED OUR STRONG LEVEL OF JAN 2021 GOLD . ((6.500 TONNES).  

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $14.80)., AND  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL NET LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2178 CONTRACTS.  THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 6.774 TONNES TONNES,ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (4.1057 TONNES)..I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT 0UR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.  THE SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI IS DUE TO BANKER SHORT COVERING IN A BIG WAY.  THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”. 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 2178 CONTRACTS OR  217,800 OZ OR  6.774  TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  470,341 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 47.03 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  1638 TONNES

 

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1463/2200 OR 66.49% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 
 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY:189,208 contracts// volume /poor ////volumes used in raid today   //

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  262,248 contracts//  fair..raid 

//most of our traders have left for London

 

MAY 5 /2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAY COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
 
 
67,517.1000 OZ
JPMorgan
 
2100 kilobars
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz

.

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
85,924.239 OZ
Delaware
Malca
 
Malca:  2635 kilobars
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
18  notice(s)
1800 OZ
(0.0559 TO
No of oz to be served (notices)
568 contracts
(56800oz)
 
1.766 TONNES
 
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
752 notices
75200 OZ
2.3390 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 

We had 0 deposit into the dealer

 
 
 
total deposit:  nil oz    
 
 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 deposits into the customer account
i) Into Delaware:  1206.354 oz
ii) Into Malca:  84,717.885 oz ( 2635kilobars)
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS: 85,924.239  oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
We had 1 withdrawals…..
 
i) Out of JPMorgan: 67,517.100 oz  2100 kilobars
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
total withdrawals: 67,517.100   oz
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had  4  kilobar transactions (4 out of 5 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS  2//  dealer to customer

Brinks:  48,226.500 oz  (1500 kilobars)

Manfra:  78,126.93  (2430 kilobars)

 
 
 
 
 
 

The front month of MAY registered a total of  586 CONTRACTS for a GAIN of 164 contracts. We had 9 notices filed on MONDAY so we gained 173 contracts or an additional 17,300 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of May. This is very unusual they we are getting queue jumping so early  in the delivery cycle on day 3.

 
 
 
JUNE LOST 6406 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 369,957..(AND THIS IS THE FRONT MONTH THAT WE WILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO!)
 
JULY GAINED 23 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 102.
 
AUGUST GAINED 1866 CONTRACTS UP TO 55,551

We had 18 notice(s) filed today for  1800   oz

FOR THE MAY 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  18  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 14 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (752) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAY:  586 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 18 x 100 oz per contract equals 132,000 OZ OR 4.1057 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of APRIL

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (752) x 100 oz  586x OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (18} x 100 oz which equals 132,000 oz standing OR 4.1057 TONNES in this  active delivery month of MAY.

We gained an additional 17,300 oz which will stand for delivery at the comex.  They refused to morph into London based forwards and as such their forfeited a fiat bonus.

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

464,420.335, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  13.626 TONNES

351,292.365 PLEDGED  MANFRA 10.92 TONNES

300,622.584, oz  JPM  9.35 TONNES

1,083,680.877 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/33.706 TONNES

54,419.138, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 1.690 tonnes JPMORGAN

6,308.08 oz International Delaware:  .196 tonnes

192.906 oz Malca

total pledged gold:  2,260,936.250 oz                                     70.32 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 472.31 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS i.e. 4.1057 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

total registered or dealer  17,445,829.664 oz or 542.63 tonnes
 
 
total weight of pledged:  2,260,936.250 oz or 70.32 tonnes
 
thus:
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,184,893.0 (472,31 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes  15,240,932.0 (474.05 tonnes)
 
total eligible gold: 17,089,874.360 oz   (531.56 tonnes)
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold 34,535,703.424 oz or 1,074.20 tonnes (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  947.86 tonnes

end

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

 

 
 
MAY 5/2021
 
 

 

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//MAY

MAY. SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH//INITIAL STANDING

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,306,951.973 oz
 
Brinks
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
Manfra 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
 
oz
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
1,022,894.930 oz
 
 
 Int Delaware
JPMorgan
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
whatever enters the comex faults
leaves
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
74
 
CONTRACT(S)
(3700,000 OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
1244 contracts
 6,220,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  6210 contracts

 

31,050,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer 
 

total dealer deposits: nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  2 deposit into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i) Into Int Delaware:  622,260.160,  oz

ii) Into JPMorgan:  400,634.770

 
 
 
 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 187.609 million oz of  total silver inventory or 52.12% of all official comex silver. (187.609 million/359.906 million

total customer deposits today 1,022,894.930   oz

we had 5 withdrawals

i) Out of CNT:  978.700 oz

ii) Out of Delaware  2947.953 oz

iii) Out of jpm:  59,374.500 oz

iiii) Out of Manfra:  185,040.710 oz

v)  Out of Brinks:  1,058,610.11 oz

 
 
 
 
 

total withdrawals1,306,951.973   oz

We had 1 adjustments:   all dealer to customer

i) Brinks:  39,565.830

 

 


 

 

 
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 116.897 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  359.906 million oz

a net 0.300 million oz leaves the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
 
 
 

May fell in contracts, losing 240 contracts to stand at  1318 contracts.  We had 228 notices filed on TUESDAY so we LOST 12 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 60,000 oz of silver will not stand delivery in this very active delivery month of May.

They  morphed into London based forwards and received as well a handsome fiat for not standing on this side of the pond..

 

June gained 349 contracts up to 2270.

July LOST a strong 4163 contracts up to 138,668 contracts

 
No of notices filed today:  74
 

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  6210 x 5,000 oz = 31,050,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (1318) and the number of notices served upon today 74 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the MAY standings for silver for the APRIL/2021 contract month: 6210 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY (1318)  – number of notices served upon today (74) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the Jan contract month .equals 37,270,000 oz. ..VERY STRONG FOR AN ACTIVE MAY MONTH.

We lost  60,000 oz of silver standing for delivery5

the big question: where is the 100 million oz of silver that Sprott has sought? 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 42,051 CONTRACTS // volume poor// 

 

FOR YESTERDAY  85,528  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ very good//

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO +0.68% (MAY 5/2021)

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO –1.34% to NAV:   (MAY 5/2021 )

Note: /Sprott physical gold trust is back into POSITIVE/0.68% (MAY 5/2021)

(courtesy Sprott/)

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

 

NAV $18.92 TRADING $18.17//NEGATIVE 3.96

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them!)

MAY 5/WITH GOL UP $7.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.20

MAY 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.80 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.20 TONNES.

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $23.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1017.04 TONNES./

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD UP $0.20 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1017.04 TONNES.

APRIL 29//WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES.

APRIL 28/WITHGOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES.

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES.

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.30 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD UP $14.40 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESSTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $8.25 TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.04 PAPER TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1021.70 TONNES

APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.25 TODAY A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.2 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.66 TONNES.

APRIL 16/WITH GOLD UP $13.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.86 TONNES

APRIL 15/WITH GOLD UP $29.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.21 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1022.86 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.07 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.07 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.07 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.67 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1026.02 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP $16.90 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/I: A WITHDRAWAL OF .36 TONNES FROM THE GLD//NVENTORY RESTS AT 1028.69 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.78 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.05 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.67 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.83 TONNES.

APRIL 1/WITH GOLD UP $13.00 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50 TONNES

MARCH 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD… A DEPOSIT OF .88 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1037.50TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.00 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1036.62 TONNES

MARCH 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.00 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH//25: WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES//GOLD REST AT 1043.03 TONNES

MARCH 24//WITH GOLD UP $7.75 TODAY://A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.42 TONNES OF GOLD: THIS GOLD IS BEING RETURNED TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND ON A PHONY LEASE SCAM//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1045.36 TONNES.

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.5 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1051.78 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

MAY 4 / GLD INVENTORY 1018.20 tonnes

LAST;  1052 TRADING DAYS:   +84.23 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED THE GLD

LAST 952 TRADING DAYS// +  268.75TONNES  HAVE NOW  BEEN ADDED INTO  THE GLD INVENTORY

end

Now the SLV Inventory/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 99 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ

APRIL 30//WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY; No CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY:: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 567.481 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27./WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.687 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 26/  WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.260 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 568.687

APRIL 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 278,000 OZ INTO THE SLV.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.847 MLLION OZ/

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWLA OF 3.619 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY REST AT 569.569 MILLION OZ..

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.188 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIST OF 1.114MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INENTORY RESTS AT 573.188 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.671 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 572.074 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 16.WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.113 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 573.745 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 7 /WITH SILVER  UP 3 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ. 

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 256,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.868 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ

APRIL 1.WITH SILVER UP 48 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.898 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.124 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 417,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY REST AT 579.022 MILLION OZ..

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ.

MARCH 26/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.042 MILLION OZ AT 3 PM AND ANOTHER AT 5.20 PM:  1.949 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.605 MILLION OZ

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.253 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 582.596 MILLION OZ

MARCH 24//WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ./

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY,TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.486 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLVAT 3 PM AND ANOTHER 2.599 MILLION OZ WITHRAWWAL AT 5:20 ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 585.846 MILLION OZ/ (TOTAL SILVER LEAVING 4.085 MILLION OZ)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT

MAY 5/2021
567.481 MILLION OZ

 
 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
i)Lawrie williams:

-END-

EGON VON GREYERZ//MATHEW PEIPENBURG

 
 

OR

Peter Schiff..

Schiff gold explains Janet’s flip flop which we told you was coming

Maharrey/Schiff Gold

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Janet Yellen’s Flip-Flop And What She’s Really Telling Us

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 08:29 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent markets into a tizzy on Tuesday when she said interest rates may have to rise to keep the economy from overheating with all the government stimulus. But later in the day, she walked those comments back, claiming inflation isn’t going to be a problem and insisting that she wasn’t suggesting or predicting rate hikes.

Yellen’s flipflop is telling. Even if inflation is an issue (and it is), there isn’t a darn thing the Federal Reserve can do about it.

Yellen made her first comments during an event hosted by The Atlantic magazine. She warned that all of the government spending coming down the pike could cause the economy to “overheat.” That’s code for “it could cause price inflation to surge.”

It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy.”

Yellen’s comments spooked markets that are already worried that the Fed might tighten monetary policy sooner than later to deal with increasing price inflation. Tech stocks in particular were hammered after Yellen’s talk.

But the Treasury secretary walked back her comments later in the day. She told a Wall Street Journal CEO Council event that she doesn’t anticipate an inflation problem and she parroted Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s mantra that any price increases will be “transitory.”

Yellen was asked directly about her earlier comments and she insisted she was neither recommending nor predicting a Fed rate hike, appealing to the central bank’s mythical independence.

“If anybody appreciates the independence of the Fed, I think that person is me,” she said.

“I don’t think there’s going to be an inflationary problem. But if there is the Fed will be counted on to address them.”

I think she’s wrong on both counts. There is an inflation problem and the Fed can’t do anything about it.

In a tweet, Peter Schiff said that’s exactly why Yellen walked back her comments.

There has been an inflation problem for quite a while – from the moment the Fed starting printing trillions of dollars out of thin air to monetize trillions in government spending. And we’re now starting to see the impact of that inflation on prices.

Anybody who has been to the grocery store, the gas station, or Home Depot has experienced big price increases first hand. The question is: are these really “transitory” price hikes due to supply chain bottlenecks as the economy reopens and a return to normal oil demand, as Yellen insists?

She had better hope so.

Because despite her assurances, the Fed can’t be counted on to address them given the state of the economy.

The very fact that the markets threw a fit at even a hint of rate increases bears this out. Can you imagine the carnage on Wall Street if the Fed actually raised rates? This bubble economy is predicated on artificially low interest rates and running up debt. This economy can’t run on higher interest rates. That’s exactly why the central bank is keeping them artificially low, and why Powell and Company desperately want us to believe that they won’t have to take action to deal with inflationary pressures.

Yet despite their best efforts, we’re still seeing rising rates on the long end of the bond yield. They spiked again after Yellen’s pontification. In fact, Reuters quoted a TD Securities interest rate strategist who tried to give Yellen cover by pointing out rates were already rising.

She was actually asked about the growing share of government spending to GDP and she was asked a very economist question and she answered in a very economist way, where interest rates to yields might have to rise a little bit for the reallocation of resources and the market read that as rates will have to rise. But I think they’ve already risen. They’ve gone from 1% to where we are now, so it’s certainly quite a bit already. I don’t think it was meant to be an impactful statement that yields will have to rise now.”

And therein lies the rub.

The US government can’t afford rising rates. And it certainly can’t have the Fed tapering its bond purchases. In fact, I would argue Uncle Sam is going to need the Fed to step up its quantitative easing in order to monetize the additional borrowing that’s looming in the future. Biden and his fellow Democrats in Congress can pretend that all of this proposed spending will be paid for by tax hikes, but they are living in fantasy land. The government will pay for Biden’s infrastructure plan and the “American Families Plan” the same way it paid for all of the coronavirus stimulus spending.

It will sell bonds.

That means the Fed will have to keep buying bonds with money printed out of thin air in order to keep the bond market from completely imploding.

Earlier this week, the Treasury Department upped the amount of money it plans to borrow in the second quarter. And not just by a little bit. In February, the Treasury projected borrowing in Q2 would come in at a relatively modest $95 billion. The new estimate for second-quarter borrowing is $463 billion. Then, in Q3, Uncle Same will nearly double that, with estimated borrowing of $821 billion.

And I guarantee you there will be more borrowing after that. That’s the only way the government can feed these ballooning deficits.

The borrowing and spending tell you all you need to know about the trajectory of interest rates. They’re staying right where they are – inflation be damned. In fact, both Powell and Yellen have cited low interest rates as the reason the government can make all of these “investments” in the economy.

The Fed is boxed into a corner. Powell knows it. Yellen knows it. But give them props – they are putting on quite a show trying to assure us everything is fine to keep the markets calm. It reminds me a little bit of the orchestra playing as the Titanic sinks.

END

OR

 
PAM AND RUSS MARTENS

Wall Street On Parade

-END-

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

The Chicago pits seen in the money trading places has now said goodbye.

Bloomberg/GATA

Chicago says goodbye to CME’s last commodity trading pits

 

By Isis Almeida and Kim Chipman
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, May 4, 2021

It’s the end of an era for open-outcry commodities trading, made famous by the film “Trading Places” with Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd.

The CME Group Inc. said today that its last few remaining pits in Chicago, where agricultural commodities options traders still yelled their bids, will close permanently. Futures transactions had already been fully replaced by electronic trading, while options pits had been active until March 2020, when Covid-19 measures forced them to be closed. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-05/chicago-says-goodbye-…

END

Judy Shelton in a New York Sun Op -Ed describes how zero Fed governors dissented on anything

(Shelton/New York Sun/GATA

New York Sun: Groupthink makes the Fed look like the old Soviet central bank

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

From the New York Sun
Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Economist Judy Shelton has a crackerjack column in tomorrow’s Wall Street Journal on the lack of intellectual and policy diversity at the Federal Reserve. 

She points out that during the entire term of Chairman Jerome Powell and his predecessor, Janet Yellen, not a single dissenting vote was recorded among the governors

It reminds us of the central bank of the Soviet Union.

Is that what we want — GosFed? That’s our jibe, not Ms. Shelton’s. It’s a play on Gosbank, for Gosudarstvenny Bank, the name of the Soviet central bank. 

It’s not our intention to suggest that our Fed or anyone associated with it is a communist. All the more mystifying, though, is the absence of dissent among GosFed governors, particularly when a new administration is readying vast new spending. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.nysun.com/editorials/gosfed/91500/

END

Craig Hemke describes what I have been pointing out: the large number of deliveries in gold.

(Craig Hemke)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Comex gold delivery update

 

 

admin Section: Daily Dispatches

 


12:50a ET Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, writing this week at Sprott Money, shows how the New York Commodities Exchange’s gold futures market, previously almost entirely a derivatives operation, has been required to make huge deliveries of metal over the last year, totaling many times the amounts of gold delivered on the exchange in previous years.

Now, as a result, Hemke concludes, “Comex gold is subject to the same pressures and squeeze potential as Comex silver.”

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Comex Gold Delivery Update” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

 


https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/COMEX-Gold-Delivery-Update-Craig-Hemke-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/TreasurerGold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

 


CPowell@GATA.org
 
END
 
Barrick blasts “hysterical” fund managers?  Maybe they should blast the regulators
(Attword/Bloomberg/GATA)

Barrick CEO blasts ‘hysterical’ fund managers chasing quick cash

 

By James Attwood

Bloomberg News

Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Investors are undermining the gold industry’s ability to grow by demanding a bigger share of profits from high bullion prices, according to the CEO of the world’s second-largest producer.

“Fund managers just bash the table and want money — they’re not interested in this industry reinforcing its foundations,” Barrick Gold Corp. Chief Executive Officer Mark Bristow said in an interview today. “Then they turn around and get hysterical when a host country demands returns.”

While Toronto-based Barrick is returning a sizable chunk of earnings and divestment proceeds to shareholders, Bristow urged fund mangers to take a longer-term approach to generating returns for their customers. 

Miners have to navigate tricky jurisdictions and geologies as well as gain the trust of politicians and populations at a time of rising environmental standards. …

 


 


… For the remainder of the report:

 


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-05/gold-ceo-blasts-hyste…

END

iii) Other physical stories:

Chris Marcus’ letter to the CFTC which will never be answered:

a MUST read for all…

A letter to CFTC’s Behnam about his silver comments, and the evidence I’ve submitted.pdf

end

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN at 6.4736 /

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.4859   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 28.04 PTS OR .81% 

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 139.16 PTS OR 0.49% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 241.34 PTS OR .83% 

 

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN 

USA dollar index  DOWN TO 91.23/Euro FALLS TO 1.2014

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.095/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.28/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 66.35 and Brent: 69.59

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.22%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 0.90% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.45%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.08: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.97

3k Gold at $1779.00 silver at: 26.35   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble  DOWN 7/100 in roubles/dollar) 74.80

3m oil into the 66 dollar handle for WTI and 69 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.28 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9135 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0960 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.23%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.610% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.278%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  DOWN  TO 8.36.. DEADLY

“Back To Normal” As Futures Rebound After Yellen Reversal

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 07:55 AM

US index futures rebounded from Tuesday’s tech-led rout, with Nasdaq futures leading gains alongside shares in Europe as focus shifted away from inflation fears and turned to strong earnings and the global economic recovery. Nasdaq futs gained the most, rising 70.25pts or 0.52% to 13,606, S&P futures were up 14.25 points or 0.34%, and Dow futures were back over 34,000, up 57pts or 0.17% to 34,077. Oil and the dollar also climbed.

Some notable premarket movers:

  • FAAMGs (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Facebook and Alphabet) rose between 0.3% and 0.9%.
  • Value stocks also gained, with oil major Chevron Corp adding 1.3%, lender Goldman Sachs Group Inc up 0.7% and heavy machinery maker Caterpillar Inc gaining 0.3%.
  • Ride-hailing company Lyft Inc rose 5.9% after it surprised Wall Street with significantly lower losses than expected.
  • Rival Uber Technologies Inc is set to report earnings after markets close on Wednesday.
  • T-Mobile US Inc gained 2.4% as it raised its full-year postpaid subscriber net additions forecast

The Nasdaq fell 1.9% on Tuesday, the most since March, in a rout sparked by fears of quickening inflation, and accelerated after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen rattled markets with comments that interest rates may have to rise moderately to keep the economy from overheating. Coupled with stock valuations near the highest in two decades, it was enough to deliver the worst day for the Nasdaq 100 since March, even as Powell previously assured markets that interest rates will remain at current lows throughout the recovery.

However, Yellen later reversed the remarks saying she sees no inflation problem brewing and wasn’t forecasting interest-rate increases to rein in any inflation spurred by President Joe Biden’s proposed spending but the fiasco reminded investors that rates would have to rise at some point in the future.

“Moderate inflation and a slow moving Fed would continue to be supportive, but inflation and a reactive Fed may prove to be a negative for valuations,” said Tapas Strickland, a director of economics at NAB. “Either way yields and equities are likely to be in a dance as much better than expected economic data continues to challenge central banks’ rates guidance.”

One such challenge looms on Friday when U.S. payrolls data are forecast to show a hefty rise of 978,000, while some estimates go as high as 2.1 million.

Meanwhile, soaring inflation sent commodities prices to their highest levels in almost a decade, with miners and energy stocks climbing the most among sectors in Europe. A gauge of commodities hit a decade high as copper rallied back above $10,000 a ton and oil topped $66 a barrel.

The market’s focus will still be on growth restoration and how Covid develops over time,” said Cecilia Chan, HSBC Asset Management Asia-Pacific chief investment officer, on Bloomberg Television. She downplayed concerns about inflation and added that “the central bank will remain dovish.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index gained 1.3% wiping out almost all of its 1.4% loss on Tuesday, with the German DAX jumping 1.3% and UK’s FTSE 100 gaining 1.1%. European markets bounced back on Wednesday after a sharp selloff in the previous session, helped by gains in commodity and banking stocks, while optimism about a strong earnings season and a speedy economic recovery dominated the markets. UK miners, including Rio Tinto, BHP Group and Anglo American, rose about 3% each as copper prices rose past a key psychological level of $10,000 a tonne, buoyed by optimism about a speedy recovery in the global economy.  European tech stocks rose 1.8% after a 3.7% plunge in the previous session. Euro zone business activity accelerated in April as the bloc’s dominant services industry shrugged off renewed lockdowns and returned to growth, a survey showed.

Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Rational shares gain as much as 8.7%, most since Oct. 27, after the German catering equipment maker delivered 1Q results which Warburg says were “better than feared.”
  • Vestas shares extend gains to as much as 9%, with analysts saying it’s important that the wind-turbine maker maintained its guidance and that a weak start to the year was well-flagged.
  • FLSmidth shares rise as much as 11%, the most intraday since since May 2020, after the machinery company reported earnings that beat analyst estimates on mining order intake and profitability.
  • Virgin Money shares slide as much as 8.3%, most since Dec. 21; Investors are likely to focus on higher costs, which meant pre-provision profit in the fiscal first half was 5% below consensus, Citi (neutral) says in note.
  • Alcon shares decline as much as 4.1% in Swiss trading after the eye care company reported 1Q results where strength in its surgical segment was offset by a slippage in contact lenses, according to Jefferies.
  • Delivery Hero shares fall as much as 5.2% to EU121.20 after a group of the company’s shareholders sold 9.8 million shares in an accelerated offering on Tuesday.

“Yesterday’s sell-off in equities is a reminder that valuations in markets are tight,” Unicredit analysts said in a note. They, however, pointed out that earnings season continued to be supportive of risk appetite.

Earlier in the session, Asian shares swung between gains and losses with the Asia-Pacific Index ex-Japan flat as rallies in materials and finance shares were offset by a decline in the region’s technology sector. Markets in Japan, China and South Korea remain shut for holidays. India’s shares and bonds gained after the central bank approved 500 billion rupees ($6.8 billion) of liquidity to banks to support lending to vaccine makers, hospitals and providers of health services.

The materials sector was the best performing in Asia on Wednesday, with an MSCI industry gauge rising 0.6%. The rally in the region’s metal miners, cement producers and steel makers, set to outperform the benchmark for a fourth month, came as global commodity prices surged to their highest level in almost a decade. The ample liquidity provided by central banks, Wall Street’s bets on commodities to hedge the risks of inflation and China’s “voracious” commodity appetite are among factors behind the commodity price rally, according to a note from Rabobank. “One thing we can be sure of — prices seem to be moving significantly higher, and not just due to the expected base effects,” the bank said.

Financials were among the top-performing industries in Asia, with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia contributing the most of the day’s gains. Indian lenders rose after Reserve Bank of India governor announced new loan-relief measures. In contrast, semiconductor-related stocks in Taiwan and Hong Kong fell after U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo called for a major increase in U.S. chip production capacity. Internet stocks also retreated after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s remarks on the direction of interest rates caused a set of hiccups in U.S. financial markets. Country-wise, Thailand’s benchmark dropped 2%, the most in four months, after its central bank warned on growth amid a resurgence in virus cases, while keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged.

In FX, the dollar traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers, with commodity currencies rising against the greenback after Yellen said she wasn’t forecasting interest-rate increases to rein in any inflation spurred by President Joe Biden’s proposed spending, clarifying comments that had jolted markets earlier. The yen traded in a tight range with Japan’s markets still shut for holiday. The euro fell below the $1.20 handle only to find some buying interest at a two-week low of around 1.1990. The pound traded little changed, ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England policy decision and release of new forecasts, and with Scotland entering a key election. New Zealand’s dollar led an advance after an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate in the first quarter; the Aussie rose with other commodity currencies. Traders are pricing in a 75% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t roll its targeted yield-curve control bond at a July policy meeting, signaling the first rate hike could come mid-2024.

In rates, Treasuries remained under pressure after drifting lower during the London session, when cash trading resumed having been closed in Asia for final day of Japan’s Golden Week holiday. Treasury yields are cheaper by ~1.5bp across long-end of the curve, steepening 2s10s, 5s30s by less than 1bp; 10-year around 1.601% is higher by ~1bp vs nearly 3bp increase for U.K. 10- year. Gilts underperformed ahead of Thursday’s BOE policy decision, with some expecting an increase in hawkish rhetoric. U.S. Treasury makes May-July refunding announcement at 8:30am ET, and most dealers expect unchanged auction sizes. The dollar issuance slate was empty so far; seven issuers sold $4.6b Tuesday, pushing weekly total over $14b. Next week expected to be active with potential for a $10b+ jumbo deal.

In commodities, palladium soared to a record high on worries over short supplies of the metal used in emissions controlling devices in automobiles. Gold was left lagging at $1,776 an ounce . Oil prices climbed to seven-week peaks as more countries opened their borders to travellers, improving the demand outlook for petrol and jet fuel. Brent added 57 cents to $69.49 a barrel, near its highest since mid-March, while WTI rose 52 cents to $66.23 per barrel.

Market participants are now awaiting monthly jobs data from payrolls processor ADP, which is expected to show additions of 800,000 last month, compared to 517,000 job additions in March. A more comprehensive reading in the form of the Labor Department’s non-farm payrolls data is due Friday. Also on the radar is the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, which is expected to show a slight rise in April from March.

A look at the day ahead highlights include the April services and composite PMIs from around the world. In the US we get the April ISM services index from the US and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for that month too, along with the March PPI reading from the Euro Area. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Evans, Rosengren and Mester, along with the ECB’s Lane, and earnings releases out today include PayPal, General Motors, Booking Holdings and Uber.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,174.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.3% to 439.47
  • MXAP down 0.27% at 204.75
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 688.61
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 28,417.98
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 48,588.44
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,095.82
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 3,147.37
  • Brent Futures up 1.19% to $69.70/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.11% to $1,777.10
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.09% to 91.371
  • German 10Y yield up 1 bp to -0.23%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1994

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • India’s central bank announced new loan-relief measures for small businesses and pledged to inject 500 billion rupees ($6.8 billion) of liquidity to support the economy against a second deadly coronavirus wave
  • Signs of inflation are picking up, with a mounting number of consumer-facing companies warning in recent days that supply shortages and logistical logjams may force them to raise prices
  • Oil extended a rally after U.S. stockpiles fell and investors applauded reopening drives in the U.S. and Europe that will aid demand. Brent neared $70 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate climbed for a third day as gasoline futures surged to the highest since July 2018
  • Copper rallied back above $10,000 a ton, closing in on a record high as the reopening of major industrial economies sparks a blistering rally across commodities markets from iron ore to lumber
  • A surge in steel consumption as the world emerges from its pandemic-induced slump is set to drive iron ore to an unprecedented high as the biggest miners struggle to keep up with the frenzied pace of demand. Expectations are building that benchmark prices can get to $200 a ton — topping the record $194 hit more than a decade ago
  • The Group of Seven nations is considering a U.S. proposal to counter what the White House sees as China’s economic coercion. A paper was circulated before a two-day meeting of G-7 foreign ministers in London
  • New coronavirus variants have proliferated across southern and eastern Africa, exacerbating the challenge of bringing the pandemic under control, analysis of the genomics data shows
  • Citigroup Inc.’s global chief economist, Catherine Mann, is leaving the bank after three years in the job

A quick look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asian equity markets traded cautiously as the region battled to shrug off the tech-led declines in the US and amid holiday-thinned conditions due to market closures in China, Japan and South Korea. There was also plenty of attention on recent comments by US Treasury Secretary Yellen who stated that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to ensure the economy does not overheat, which added to the headwinds on Wall Street, although some of the jitters gradually eased given that the comments were taken somewhat out of context and was regarding the future not imminent policy, while Yellen later clarified that she is not predicting nor recommending a rate increase. ASX 200 (+0.4%) brushed aside the early indecision and climbed above the 7,100 level for the first time since early last year helped by much stronger than expected Building Approvals data and with gains in most the big four banks aside from ANZ Bank despite a surge in H1 cash profit which more than doubled to AUD 2.99bln as the CEO also flagged significant uncertainty. Hang Seng (-0.5%) was choppy after disappointing Retail Sales data for Hong Kong and continued absence of stock connect trade with the mainland, although downside was also limited after data from MOFCOM showed China’s online retail sales jumped 29.0% in Q1 and the China Iron and Steel Association noted a 15.6% output expansion for the nation’s steel sector. India’s NIFTY (+0.9%) was also mildly supported following RBI Governor Das unscheduled speech in which he eventually announced several measures including another INR 350bln of purchases of government securities and on-tap liquidity facility of INR 500bln for fresh lending to vaccine manufacturers and others.

Top Asian News

  • ANZ CEO Not Ruling Out Purchase of Citi Australia Retail Assets
  • Thailand Holds Rates, Warns on Growth Amid Its Worst Covid Wave
  • RBI Steps Up Loan Relief, Liquidity for India’s Virus Fight
  • Hong Kong Is a Renters’ Market as Prices Drop on Expat Moves

Major bourses in Europe trade higher across the board (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%) as the region stages a somewhat of a recovery or retracement from yesterday’s selloff, albeit putting the price action into context, indices remain some way off yesterday’s best levels. US equity futures also coat-tail on the sentiment seen across the pond, although gains across the futures are less pronounced with the RTY (+0.6%) modestly outperforming peers though the NQ (+0.5%) is catching up. The overall tone across the market however, is tentative with mixed final PMIs failing to spur much action, and as participants await a busy docket ahead in the run-up to tomorrow’s super-Thursday followed by Friday’s US jobs update. Back to Europe, varying gains are seen across the majors, whilst the periphery narrowly outperforms. Sectors in Europe are all in the green with cyclicals broadly performing better than defensives. Basic Resources top the charts as base metals are back on the grind higher. Oil & Gas is supported by the oil complex itself which is underpinned by the attempted revival of swift and safe international travel – namely between OECD countries. The Tech features among the gainers today, albeit after yesterday’s underperformance given Infineon, among other factors. Conversely, the Auto sector resides as one of the laggards as Daimler (-1.7%) is dealt a blow by Nissan offloading its stake at a discount, although losses are cushioned by Stellantis (+2.7%) strength post-earnings. Earnings-related movers this morning include the likes of Deutsche Post (+4%), Hannover Re (-1.2%), Siemens Energy (+0.4%), Hugo Boss (+5.5%), Axa (Unch), Veolia (Unch), Novo Nordisk (+2.5%) and Maersk (+4%). Finally, Delivery Hero (-4.0%) is among Europe’s laggards after reports stated that shareholders are looking to offload almost 10mln shares with a bookrunner guiding the price at a notable discount vs the last close.

Top European News

  • UBS Chairman Axel Weber Apologizes for Archegos Loss
  • Bahrain May Follow Gulf States by Selling Oil, Pipeline Assets
  • Vestas Gains After Wind Turbine Maker Maintains Guidance
  • London Emerges From Lockdown Harder Hit Than Much of the U.K.

In FX, the Greenback is not universally firmer against G10 counterparts, but has gained sufficient ground vs several index components to surpass Tuesday’s US Treasury Secretary inspired spike high and print a new best since April 19, albeit fractionally at 91.436 vs 91.430 on April 21 and 91.425 on the day after. The Franc is trailing in wake below 0.9150 having probed 0.9100 yesterday and Monday, with no reaction to in line Swiss CPI (naturally), but Euro weakness is arguably more eye-catching as the 1.2000 marker is finally breached irrespective of mostly softer than expected Eurozone services and composite PMIs. Eur/Usd is now banking on Fib support in the form of a 38.2% retracement from 1.1704 to 1.2150 at 1.1980 rather than decent option expiry interest between 1.2050-55 (1 bn) or any desire to retest the 100 DMA in that vicinity. Back to the DXY, 91.500 is the obvious nearest resistance level and next upside objective ahead of 91.748 and 91.813 (latter being the high on April 16) awaiting ADP, the services ISM and yet more Fed speak.

  • NZD/AUD/CAD – All resisting the Buck’s latest advances, and in the case of the Kiwi recouping all and more of its Yellen rate rise knee-jerk losses with the aid of NZ jobs data that beat consensus on all counts. Indeed, Nzd/Usd has rebounded even more firmly from the low 0.7100 zone to 0.7175+ before fading, and probably also boosted by the RBNZ’s FSR flagging further tightening of LVR restrictions if required to keep a lid on property prices. On that note, NZ building consents are due later tonight and Aussie building approvals exceeded expectations by more than double to help Aud/Usd reclaim 0.7700+ status ahead of a speech from RBA’s Debelle on Thursday. Elsewhere, the Loonie has also regained composure after Tuesday’s disappointing Canadian trade balance, though largely on the back of a more pronounced recovery in crude prices as Usd/Cad retreats through 1.2300 compared to just over 1.2350 at one stage yesterday. However, 1.1 bn option expiries at the round number could well keep the Loonie in check, like 1 bn at 0.7750 for the Aussie.
  • GBP/JPY – The Pound and Yen are relatively resilient in the face of broad Dollar strength as well, with Cable containing declines sub-1.3900 to circa 1.376 amidst favourable Eur/Gbp cross flows under 0.8650 and towards the 50 DMA that comes in at 0.8620 today. Meanwhile, Usd/Jpy has withdrawn into a narrower band inside 109.50-00 following Monday’s false breaks either side, but still lacking depth on the final day of Golden Week in Japan.
  • SCANDI/EM – The aforementioned leg up in oil post-bullish API weekly inventory update that has lifted WTI over Usd 66.50/brl and Brent close to Usd 70 is propelling the Nok back beyond 10.0000 against the Eur, but the Sek is lagging near 10.2000 regardless of an acceleration in Sweden’s services PMI or marked pick up in new manufacturing orders. Similarly, the Rub and Mxn are weaker despite the ongoing crude rally, while the Try is also suffering from a rise in year end Turkish inflation expectations, but the Zar is deriving some underlying support via SA’s Whole Economy PMI extending above the key 50.0 threshold.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are firmer on the session with the former around USD 66.50/bbl (vs low 66/bbl) and the latter just under USD 70/bbl (vs low 69.25/bbl). The complex has been underpinned by optimism surrounding swift and safe international travel, with reports yesterday suggesting that some Euro Zone holiday hotspots could be given the green light for travel from the UK. Meanwhile, yesterday’s Private Inventory (crude: -7.7mln bbl vs exp. -2.3mln bbl) report added further fuel to the bullish fire as the refined product inventories also proved to be constructive – with eyes on confirmation from the weekly DoEs with headline expectations pointing to a draw of 2.3mln bbl. Elsewhere, spot gold and silver are uneventful within recent ranges at USD 1,775/oz and above USD 26/oz as prices track the Buck in the run-up to today’s risk events including ADP and ISM Services. Finally, LME copper has regained a footing above USD 10,000/t with traders citing the higher demand prospect underpinning the red metal.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:15am: ADP employment change in April; est. 850k
  • 9:15am: Markit US services PMI; est. 63.1; Markit US composite PMI
  • 9:30am: Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economy on Monetary Policy
  • 10am: ISM services index; est. 64.1
  • 11:00am: Fed’s Rosengren Speaks on the Economic Outlook
  • 12:00am: Fed’s Mester Speaks to Boston Economic Club

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Financial markets saw a pretty major selloff yesterday, although the market collectively scratched its head as to what caused the scale of the falls. Candidates included Chinese/Taiwan tensions, fresh pandemic issues (e.g. fresh Singapore restrictions and India’s IPL cricket tournament being cancelled) and most likely US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments that rates may need to rise to prevent economic overheating. Yellen, who is also a former Fed Chair, said in an interview released yesterday that “it may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure our economy doesn’t overheat,” and that this “could cause some very modest increases in interest rates.” Her remarks were likely speaking about market pricing of longer-term rates rather than breaking historic convention and commenting on monetary policy.

However, it was uncertain just how high she sees rates climbing as Secretary Yellen also commented that she expects the US to remain in a low interest rate environment for some time, but the government still needs to make sure deficits remain “manageable.” Later in the day White House Press Secretary Psaki said that “Secretary Yellen certainly understands” the importance of the Fed’s independence. She also noted that President Biden and Yellen are taking any “inflationary risk incredibly seriously.” Regardless, just after the market closed new headlines came out with Secretary Yellen indicating that she was not predicting or recommending that rates increase and that she is not expecting inflation to be a problem. She also mirrored her successor’s confidence that the Fed had the tools necessary to address inflation if it were to occur. So it seems like a small matter of fact statement has been magnified around financial markets, which just shows how sensitive we all are to rates and inflation.

Having said this, could the selloff be as simple as a sign that the pace of US growth is peaking? Regular readers will know that we’ve been flagging DB’s Binky Chadha’s work from last month (link here) where he looked at all ISM peaks since WWII and found 37 such occurrences. The S&P 500 fell -8.3% (median) after those growth tops. Given the stretched positioning in this cycle he was/is expecting something at the top end of a 6-10% correction over the next couple of months. So with the ISM falling on Monday from 64.7 to 60.7 (65.0 expected) it’s possible we’ve seen the peak in the rate of change in growth that has previously heralded a correction. As such was some of the sell-off a delayed reaction to Monday’s quite notable fall in the ISM?

Looking at the market moves in more depth, the S&P 500 closed -0.67% lower though it was a fairly binary sectoral move with growth giving way for value and cyclical stocks. The index was down as much as -1.53% intraday, before recovering in the US afternoon primarily on the back of banks (+1.36%), materials (+1.04%) and telecoms (+0.88%). Tech stocks saw the brunt of the losses with tech hardware (-2.97%), semiconductors (-1.87%) and software (-1.40%) causing the NASDAQ (-1.88%) and the FANG+ index (-2.35%) to fall back significantly. The VIX index of volatility surged +1.2pts to move back above 20pts for the first time in over a month in trading, before closing at 19.48pts. European indices similarly saw major declines yesterday, with the DAX (-2.49%) seeing its biggest daily loss so far this year as the Europe-wide STOXX 600 also fell -1.43%.

Amidst the decidedly risk-off tone among investors, haven assets outperformed in response, with both the dollar (+0.38%) and sovereign bonds advancing yesterday. Yields on 10yr Treasuries ended the session down -0.5bps at 1.592%, some way beneath their intraday high of 1.621%, in a decline that coincided with the Yellen headlines. The move was driven by lower real yields (-1.0bps) rather than inflation expectations (+0.4bps). However there was a noticeable rise in inflation breakevens at shorter maturities, with the 3yr breakeven up +4.9bps to 2.795%, a level not seen since 2006. For Europe, yields on 10yr bunds (-3.4bps), OATs (-2.7bps) and BTPs (-1.2bps) all moved lower.

The rise in the dollar came even as commodity prices rose to their highest price levels since late 2011. Dovetailing inflation worries into the piece highlighted above by our colleague Luke on supply bottlenecks, the Bloomberg Commodity Index – comprised of 23 raw materials including oil, metals and agriculture products – rose +1.05% yesterday to its highest levels in nearly a decade, and +77.3% since the March 2020 lows. The rise has been driven by a confluence of factors. Energy and metal prices have increased as demand for travel and consumer products have rebounded with the pandemic abating somewhat, while crop prices have gained on particularly dry seasons in Brazil, the US and Europe. Supply shocks, exacerbated by the pandemic, have pushed raw material prices higher. Lastly, commodities are an oft-used inflation hedge and investor positioning could be playing a role as well.

Overnight in Asia, a number of markets are still closed for holidays including in China, Japan and South Korea, though the Hang Seng (+0.06%) and Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.64%) have both moved higher this morning. Futures markets in the US and Europe are similarly pointing to a recovery from yesterday’s selloff, with those on both the S&P 500 (+0.30%) and the STOXX 50 (+0.85%) advancing. And speaking of commodities, oil prices have climbed further overnight, with Brent crude (+0.78%) at $69.43/bbl, which is its highest level in over 7 weeks and just shy of its post-pandemic closing high at $69.63/bbl in March. WTI oil prices (+0.79%) have also risen this morning to now trade at $66.20/bbl, which would be their highest closing level in two years.

On the pandemic, the surge in cases in India saw the Indian Premier League cricket tournament suspended, following a number of players testing positive. Meanwhile Singapore has moved to toughen up restrictions on gatherings and at their borders following a cluster of cases that has been linked to new variants. In Tokyo, Prime Minister Suga is reportedly considering keeping the greater Osaka and Tokyo areas in a state of emergency after the orders were originally supposed to end on May 11. Meanwhile in the UK, Prime Minister Johnson said there are “no plans to deviate from the earliest dates set out in the roadmap” for reopening the economy.

In terms of vaccine news, the EMA announced they are starting their rolling review of the Sinovac Life Sciences’ vaccine in order to allow its use in the EU. The Chinese-based company’s vaccine joins the Russian Sputnik V vaccine on the review list. Moderna’s chairman announced in an interview yesterday that the company has started trials of the efficacy of its vaccine in lower doses in order to boost supply as the pandemic continues. In the US demand has started to slow in certain areas and the Biden Administration has told the state Governors that it would start reallocating vaccines that are not claimed in order to better meet demand in all areas. President Biden also set the new target of 70% of all Americans getting at least one dose of vaccine by July 4th with 160mn adults fully inoculated. Currently the CDC reports that 56% of all US adults have gotten one jab and 105mn adults are fully vaccinated.

In terms of yesterday’s data, the US trade deficit came in at a record $74.4bn in March, in line with expectations. Meanwhile US factory orders were up +1.1% that month (vs. +1.3% expected). Over in Europe, the UK’s final manufacturing PMI for April came in at 60.9 (vs. flash 60.7), and mortgage approvals in March fell to 82.7k (vs. 86.5k expected).

To the day ahead now, and the data highlights include the April services and composite PMIs from around the world. Otherwise, there’s also the April ISM services index from the US and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for that month too, along with the March PPI reading from the Euro Area. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Evans, Rosengren and Mester, along with the ECB’s Lane, and earnings releases out today include PayPal, General Motors, Booking Holdings and Uber.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 28.04 PTS OR .81%   //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 139.16 PTS OR  0.49%     /The Nikkei closed down 241.34 pts or .83%  //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.28%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 6.4736 /Oil DOWN TO 65.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 68.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN   //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.4736. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4597   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/

 

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN//

 

3 C CHINA

CHINA

China has an ambitious plan to cut emissions down to 0 by 2030.  However it must shutter 600 coal plants.

(zerohedge)

China Must Shutter 600 Coal Plants To Meet Its Emissions Goals, New Analysis Finds

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 11:05 PM

China has proclaimed bold goals of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2060. 

But if the country is to meet its climate goals, it is going to have to shut down 600 coal fired power plants and replace them with renewable energy, a new article from The Guardian points out.

A company called TransitionZero performed an analysis that the switch to renewables like wind and solar could also save $1.6 trillion over the time period, since renewables are now cheaper than coal.

China’s coal consumption has long been in focus of the rest of the world. Despite its proclaimed goals, China “has ramped up plans for new coal-fired power stations in an effort to spur economic growth after the recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic,” the report notes.

Global climate “experts” are afraid that, despite the long term goals, China’s next 10 years of coal power will overdraw the world’s global carbon budget (which we guess is an actual thing?)

Matthew Gray, the co-chief executive of TransitionZero, commented: “If China fails on coal, the rest of the world will fail on containing dangerous climate change. But the stars are now somewhat aligning on breaking China’s addiction to coal.”

He also says the transition could be tough, as coal is “deeply embedded” in China’s economy and society. But Gray says renewables could create as many jobs as would be lost from shuttering the country’s coal plants. “Moving to net zero will be jobs intensive,” he said.

Al Gore, who wrote a forward to the analysis (of course), stated: “This shows that not only can China meet their climate goals, the country and its leaders can accelerate them rapidly. The economic opportunity presented by a transition from coal to clean energy shows that climate action and economic growth go hand in hand.”

UN Secretary General António Guterres has also “urged” the country to move away from coal. China has plans to submit a new climate plan under the 2015 Paris Climate Accord this November.

END

CHINA/USA/THE GLOBE

Leaked documents expose that Chinese leader Xi plans to control the global internet.  This is why we should not do business with them

Hao/EpochTimes

Leaked Docs Expose Chinese Leader Xi Jinping’s Plan To Control The Global Internet

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Nicole Hao and Cathy Ye via The Epoch Times,

Chinese leader Xi Jinping personally directed the communist regime to focus its efforts to control the global internet, displacing the influential role of the United States, according to internal government documents recently obtained by The Epoch Times.

In a January 2017 speech, Xi said the “power to control the internet” had become the “new focal point of [China’s] national strategic contest,” and singled out the United States as a “rival force” standing in the way of the regime’s ambitions.

The ultimate goal was for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to control all content on the global internet, so the regime could wield what Xi described as “discourse power” over communications and discussions on the world stage.

Xi articulated a vision of “using technology to rule the internet” to achieve total control over every part of the online ecosystem—over applications, content, quality, capital, and manpower.

His remarks were made at the fourth leadership meeting of the regime’s top internet regulator, the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission, in Beijing on Jan. 4, 2017, and detailed in internal documents issued by the Liaoning Provincial Government in China’s southeast.

The statements confirm efforts made by Beijing in the past few years to promote its own authoritarian version of the internet as a model for the world.

In another speech given in April 2016, detailed in an internal document by the Anshan City Government in Liaoning Province, Xi confidently proclaimed that in the “struggle” to control the internet, the CCP has transformed from playing “passive defense” to playing both “attack and defense” at the same time.

Having successfully built the world’s most sprawling and sophisticated online censorship and surveillance apparatus, known as the Great Firewall, the CCP under Xi is turning outwards, championing a Chinese internet whose values run counter to the open model advocated by the West. Rather than prioritizing the free flow of information, the CCP’s system centers on giving the state the ability to censor, spy on, and control internet data.

Countering the US

The Chinese leader acknowledged the regime lagged behind its rival the United States—the dominant player in this field—in key areas such as technology, investments, and talent.

To realize its ambitions, Xi emphasized the need to “manage internet relations with the United States,” while “making preparations for fighting a hard war” with the country in this area.

American companies should be used by the regime to reach its goal, Xi said, without elaborating on how this would be done.

He also directed the regime to increase its cooperation with Europe, developing countries, and member states of Beijing’s “Belt and Road Initiative,” to form a “strategic counterbalance” against the United States.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a massive infrastructure investment project launched by Beijing to connect Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East through a network of rail, sea, and road linkages. The plan has been criticized by the United States and other Western countries as a conduit for Beijing to increase its political and commercial interests in member states while saddling developing countries with heavy debt burdens.

The BRI has also pushed countries to sign up to “digital silk road” projects—those involving information and communications technology infrastructure. At least 16 countries have signed memoranda of understanding with the regime to work in this area.

Three-pronged Strategy

Xi ordered the regime to focus on three “critical” areas in its pursuit of controlling the global internet.

  • First, Beijing needs to be able to “set the rules” governing the international system.

  • Second, it should install CCP surrogates in important positions in global internet organizations.

  • Third, the regime should gain control over the infrastructure that underlies the internet, such as root servers, Xi said.

Domain Name System (DNS) root servers are key to internet communications around the world. It directs users to websites they intend to visit. There are more than 1,300 root servers in the world, about 20 of which are located in China while the United States has about 10 times that, according to the website root-servers.org.

If the Chinese regime were to gain control over more root servers, they could then redirect traffic to wherever they want, Gary Miliefsky, cybersecurity expert and publisher of Cyber Defense Magazine, told The Epoch Times. For example, if a user wants to go to a news article about a topic deemed sensitive by Beijing, then the regime’s DNS server could route the user to a fake page saying the article is no longer online.

“The minute you control the root, you can spoof or fake anything,” he said.

“You can control what people see, what people don’t see.”

In recent years, the regime has made headway in advancing Xi’s strategy.

In 2019, Chinese telecom giant Huawei first proposed the idea for an entirely new internet, called New IP (internet protocol), to replace the half-century-old infrastructure underpinning the web. New IP is touted to be faster, more efficient, flexible, and secure than the current internet, and will be built by the Chinese.

While New IP may indeed bring about an improved global network, Miliefsky said, “the price for that is freedom.”

“There’s going to be no free speech. And there’s going to be eavesdropping in real-time, all the time, on everyone,” he said.

“Everyone who joins it is going to be eavesdropped by a single government.”

The proposal was made at a September 2019 meeting held at the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), a U.N. agency responsible for setting standards for computing and communications issues that is currently headed by Chinese national Zhao Houlin. New IP is set to be formally debated at the ITU World Telecommunication Standardization Assembly to be held in March 2022.

Miliefsky said the plan is unlikely to gain widespread support among countries, but may be adopted by like-minded authoritarian states such as North Korea, and later by countries that signed onto BRI and are struggling to repay its loans to China.

This would accelerate a bifurcation of the internet, what analysts such as former Google CEO Eric Schmidt have dubbed the “splinternet,” Miliefsky said. “The communist net and the rest of the world.”

The Epoch Times has reached out to Huawei for comment.

Importing Talent

According to the document, Xi ordered the CCP regime to set up “three ecosystems”—technology, industry, and policy—to develop core internet technologies.

Having skilled workers was key to this plan, with Xi directing that talent should be hired from around the globe. This would be done through Chinese companies, Xi prescribed.

He told Chinese firms to “proactively” invite foreign “high-end talents,” and to set up research centers overseas and hire leading ethnic Chinese and foreign specialists to work for them.

Meanwhile, Xi asked the regime to set up a professional training system in China, which can systematically develop a highly skilled workforce in the long run.

He also directed officials in each level of government to guide Chinese companies to develop their business plans to align with the regime’s strategic goals, and encourage capable enterprises to take the lead in developing innovations in core technologies.

Enterprises were to be educated in having “national awareness and safeguarding national interests,” Xi said. Only then should the regime support and encourage their expansion.

Because talent and critical technology are concentrated overseas, the Chinese leader also ordered authorities to support the development of a group of multinational internet companies that can have global influence.

Turning the Internet Red

Xi, in his 2016 speech, described all online content as falling into three categories: “red zone, black zone, and gray zone.”

“Red zone” content refers to discourse aligned with the CCP’s propaganda requirements, while “black zone” material falls foul of these rules. “Gray zone” content lies in the middle.

“We must consolidate and expand the red zone and expand its influence in society,” Xi said in a leaked speech in August 2013.

“We must bravely enter into the black zone [and fight hard] to gradually get it to change its color. We must launch large-scale actions targeting the gray zone to accelerate its conversion to the red zone and prevent it from turning into the black zone.”

Inside China, the CCP has a stranglehold on online content and discussion through the Great Firewall, a massive internet censorship apparatus that blockades foreign websites and censors content deemed unacceptable to the party. It also hires a massive online troll army, dubbed the “50-cent army,” to manipulate online discussion. A recent report found that the CCP engages 2 million paid internet commentators and draws on a network of 20 million part-time volunteers to carry out online trolling.

Freedom House, in its 2020 annual internet freedom report, labeled China as the world’s worst abuser of online freedom for the sixth straight year. Chinese citizens have been arrested for using software to circumvent the Great Firewall and punished for posting comments online unfavorable to the Chinese regime. In a now-notorious incident during the early stages of the pandemic, whistleblower doctor Li Wenliang was reprimanded by police for “rumor-mongering” after warning colleagues in a social media chat group about a SARS-like virus in Wuhan City.

In the 2017 remarks, Xi told the regime to develop a larger group of “red” online influencers to shape users’ perceptions of the CCP. He also called for an expansion of the 50 cent army to operate both inside and outside of China’s internet.

Since the pandemic, the CCP has sharply escalated its efforts to influence online opinion overseas. Using large networks of troll accounts on Twitter and Facebook, the regime has been able to propagate and amplify propaganda and disinformation on topics such as the pandemic, racial tensions in the United States, and the regime’s oppression of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.

end

CHINA VS GLOBE

US Pushes G-7 Coordination To Counter China’s Economic Bullying, Including “Friends Of Hong Kong” Initiative

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 01:41 PM

As the Group of Seven (G7) summit is now wrapping up in London, it’s been clear that a ‘united front’ for confronting China has been a controversial topic high on the discussion list. For starters it appears that an entire lengthy Tuesday night meeting was spent among G7 representatives exploring the ways China coerces “partner” countries into submission to Beijing’s will via Xi’s Belt and Road initiative as well as direct economic threats. The current meetings are geared toward laying the groundwork for the major June 11 summit, which President Joe Biden and other heads of state are expected to attend in person – an important first since the coronavirus pandemic. 

Bloomberg revealed the details of US representatives’ urging G7 allies to create a mechanism for “coordinated response” against China’s expanding influence, which has been particularly felt of late in places like the Balkans, central Asia, and Africa: “A paper was circulated before a two-day meeting of G-7 foreign ministers in London, according to officials, who were granted anonymity to discuss private talks… The U.S. wants a consultation mechanism that would involve the G-7 — as well as other stakeholders — to ensure a coordinated response to China’s moves and with the aim of bolstering the resilience of G-7 nations, according to another diplomat.”

Via Reuters

On the eve of the two-day summit Secretary of State Antony Blinken had told CBS’ 60 Minutes that “Our purpose is not to contain China, to hold it back, to keep it down,” but instead the Biden administration hopes to uphold this rules-based order that China is posing a challenge to. He additionally vowed that “Anyone who poses a challenge to that order, we’re going to stand up and defend it” — and that confronting China will be a focus of President Biden at the upcoming major G7 summit in early summer. 

Boris Johnson and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken were also said to have focused on “close alignment” of US and UK foreign policies during their face-to-face meeting. And UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab notably said that the in-person gathering of foreign ministers and top officials from allied economies “demonstrates that diplomacy is back” (perhaps also a swipe at Trump?) and that countries are once again “getting together” after the ravages and disruption of Covid.

A G7 statement is expected to say that the group is “deeply concerned” about China’s human rights abuses, and is likely to call for a neutral rights team’s access to Xinjiang province to investigate, while also calling Beijing to account over prior promises to preserve Hong Kong autonomy. 

BBC summarized that a wide range of foreign policy issues were discussed, even including Syria and the continuing crisis in war-torn Libya, as well as the ongoing violence in Myanmar as a result of the military-led coup:

The spokeswoman added that foreign policy issues, including Afghanistan, Iran and China, were also discussed, and Mr Johnson “looked forward to welcoming” US President Joe Biden to the UK when he attends the leaders’ summit in June – his first overseas trip since his election victory.

Also notable is that a “Friends of Hong Kong” initiative was proposed and discussed, described as a mechanism to “to share information and concerns about the former British colony,” one unnamed diplomat told BBC.

The G7 group, which includes many of the world’s largest economies – the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States – for the London meeting also involved representatives of Australia, South Korea, India, and South Africa as guests, given the UK is currently attempting to deepen trade ties with friendly Indo-Pacific nations. 

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU/VACCINE

Not a very effective plan: The EU is counting on Pfizer’s M-RNA vaccine and it.  Who knows what to expect in two years what harm the RNA- messenger will do to its citizens

(zerohedge)

Europe’s Vaccine Rollout Relies Heavily On Pfizer/BioNTech

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 02:45 AM

As Europe’s vaccine rollout is picking up pace, Statista’s Felix Richter reports that the European Commission is doubling down on its use of mRNA vaccines, with the Pfizer/BioNTech shot central to its inoculation efforts. According to a statement, the European Commission is about to sign a deal with Pfizer/BioNTech for the delivery of 1.8 billion doses between 2021 and 2023, which would cement the drug’s central role in Europe’s vaccination campaign.

According to the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 80 million doses of Comirnaty – that’s the official name of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine – had been administered across the EU, Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland by April 18, accounting for 70 percent of all doses administered by that time.

Infographic: Europe's Vaccine Rollout Relies Heavily on Pfizer/BioNTech | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Following a brief period in which the drug’s share of weekly shots administered dropped below 60 percent as the rollout of the AstraZeneca vaccine began, Pfizer’s share of jabs given across Europe has risen back to 67 percent over the past few weeks.

The blood clot incidents associated with AstraZeneca’s vaccine as well as the company’s failure to meet delivery agreements have led the European Commission to prioritize mRNA vaccines going forward, with the new Pfizer/BioNTech deal a critical step in that direction.

 

end

A super commentary from Mises on Europe’s non recovery.

Grass/Mises

Europe’s “Miracle Recovery” Narrative: We’ll Just Print Our Way To Prosperity

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Claudio Grass via The Mises Institute,

Over the last few weeks, we’ve been constantly bombarded by news reports and “expert” analyses celebrating an incredible global economic recovery. They’re not even presented as projections or expectations anymore, but as a fact, as though the return to vibrant growth were already underway. Stock markets certainly seem to agree, going from record high to record high while all the political and institutional leaders congratulate themselves on a job well done. 

Although this is largely the consensus in most Western economies, this jubilant, victorious mood feels most bizarre in Europe. Celebrating a recovery during a third round of total lockdowns, closed shops, travel bans, and millions out of work seems like cognitive dissonance at best, or barefaced political hypocrisy at worst. France, Italy, Germany, Austria, they’ve all launched yet another round of business shutdowns and heavily restricted social activities and freedom of movement. And they did that to combat what they labeled a terrible, deadly third wave of infections and hospital overcrowding. In fact, to convince the public of the dire need to go back into lockdown, they painted postapocalyptic visions of a virus-overrun nation and sounded the alarm on the imminent collapse of their public health systems. Under these extreme conditions, these existential threats, closely resembling a state of national emergency, it is really quite challenging to see how the economy might be flourishing.

One could argue that the trillions that were printed by the ECB and helicopter dropped on member states actually achieved their aim and successfully rescued and restarted the economy. However, it is still hard to fathom how injecting any amount of cash into a forcibly frozen economy can restart economic activity and jump-start productivity, given that it’s still largely illegal to be economically active and productive. In other words, you can pump as much fuel as you like into your car, but if the engine is dead, you probably won’t go very far. 

Another common argument that we hear a lot these days to explain the roaring stock markets is about all the hopes riding on the vaccine. The idea is that since markets are forward looking, they’re pricing in the great news of a successful vaccination rollout that will allow Europe to reach the much-coveted herd immunity and finally reopen the economy. Again, we’re facing a reality check problem here: the EU has completely botched the rollout and delivered the poorest and slowest results among Western economies. Logistical chaos, insufficient doses, infighting, indecisive leadership, and scientific guidance that frequently flip-flops on crucial issues, like vaccine safety, have vastly damaged the credibility of the bloc, but also heavily clouded its economic outlook. That much-anticipated “reopening” and the return to normalcy is a hope that seems increasingly distant and elusive. 

So how does that all fit together with the unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus wave? Where do all the trillions of euros go when so much of normal economic activity is suspended for a year? Of course, the most obvious answer is inflation. It is already obvious in asset prices, and it has been for years, but now there’s a very real risk that inflationary pressures will start affecting ordinary consumers too. The record-breaking spending spree, combined with an extremely supportive and accommodating monetary policy, has already generated piles of idle cash, not just in the banks and the corporate world like we saw in 2008, but also in the average household. 

On a micro level, looking at those households and their finances, it is clear that, for the moment, a lot of citizens are simply frozen by fear and uncertainty. They have largely adopted a conservative approach and chosen to save more, as they are justifiably wary of what lies ahead and when their next paycheck might come, if it comes at all. In fact, this entirely reasonable response has been identified as a problem by mainstream analysts and institutional figures. For example, in Germany, the amount of cash held in private bank accounts increased by €182 billion to reach €1.73 trillion, according to data from the nation’s central bank. The Ifo Institute issued a report on this “savings surplus,” arguing that it undermines hopes for a consumer boom. Put simply, in this brave new world, being responsible and planning ahead for one’s future is bad for the economy. 

At this point, the economic crisis still rages on and the restrictions on commerce are so harsh and so numerous that even if they wanted to spend more, most consumers wouldn’t be able to. Sooner or later, however, economic activity will return, in some form or another. Even with strict limits or new rules and regulations, shops will reopen and even if that happens under the conditions of a “new normal,” citizens will eventually either get used to it or at least go along with it. It is still hard to tell when the average consumer will feel confident enough in their own financial and professional outlook to start spending all this saved-up cash, but once they do, the inflationary risks will be substantially increased. 

Meanwhile, gold prices appear to have weakened over the last few months, causing many analysts and commentators to declare that the precious metal is no longer a safe haven or indeed relevant at all in a modern portfolio. This view is so obviously and dangerously misguided that it’s frankly surprising it is getting any traction at all. Of course gold demand is suppressed when borrowing costs nothing; spending, buying, and gambling are actively encouraged; and all political and central banking figureheads ceaselessly reassure anyone who will listen that the support is not going away any time soon. 

This is the classic setup to an inflationary environment, the same prelude that we’ve seen again and again in monetary history.

end

INFLATION WATCH/EUROPE

PPI red hot

(Reuters)

Euro zone producer prices accelerate in March to stoke inflation

BRUSSELS, May 5 (Reuters) – Euro zone producer prices accelerated in line with expectations in March, driven by increases for energy and intermediate goods, data showed on Wednesday, reinforcing forecasts of higher consumer inflation in the coming months.

European Union statistics office Eurostat said prices at factory gates in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 1.1% month-on-month for a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, a 29-month high. That compared with market expectations of respectively 1.1% and 4.2%.

Changes in prices at factory gates are usually transmitted to final consumers and therefore herald trends in inflation that the European Central Bank targets with its monetary policy.

Euro zone consumer inflation jumped in April to a two- year high of 1.6%, taking another step higher in a sharp climb that could push it above the European Central Bank’s target of near 2% later this year.

The ECB has predicted the surge, warning that inflation may even exceed its target by the close of the year, but has promised to look past what it expects to be a temporary spike in its policy decisions.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday that rate hikes may be needed to stop the economy overheating as President Joe Biden’s spending plans boost growth, though later said she saw no inflation problem brewing.

The main change in producer prices in March came from a jump in energy costs, which were up 10.3% year-on-year. But even excluding energy, producer prices rose 2.3% in March after an 1.2% increase in February.

Prices of intermediate goods rose 4.4% year-on-year in March after a 2.5% rise in February. Price rises for capital and durable consumer goods also accelerated, while for non-durable consumer goods they rose after three months of declines.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 
 
SAUDI ARABIA/SYRIA
This may change the face of the Middle East:  Saudi Arabia is now poised to mend relations with Assad of Syria
(zerohedge)

Saudi Arabia Poised To Mend Relations With Assad In Major First Since War Began

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 01:00 AM

Multiple international reports on Tuesday revealed that Saudi Arabia’s powerful intelligence chief traveled to Damascus Monday to meet with his Syrian counterpart in what’s being seen as a major step toward detente. The two broke off relations since near the start of the war in 2011, especially as it became clear the Saudis were a key part of the Western allied push for regime change, through covert support to anti-Assad insurgents and jihadists which included regular weapons shipments.

Gen Khalid Humaidan, the head of Saudi Arabia’s General Intelligence Directorate, led a delegation where they were received by Syrian government officials in Damascus. According to The Guardian, Riyadh is currently preparing for a “normalization of relations” – expected to come immediately after the Muslim holiday of Ramadan next week

 

Central Damascus, file image

One unnamed Saudi official was cited in The Guardian as saying “It’s been planned for a while, but nothing has moved.” He explained that “Events have shifted regionally and that provided the opening.”

“The Saudi delegation was led by Gen Khalid Humaidan, the head of the country’s General Intelligence Directorate,” the report details. “He was received by Syria’s Gen Ali Mamlouk, the architect of the push to crush the early years of the anti-Assad revolution and the key interlocutor with Russian forces, which took a significant stake in the conflict from September 2015.” The Saudis had shuttered their embassy in Damascus by 2012 and simultaneously expelled Syria’s ambassador from Riyadh.

The news could serve to ease the pressure on Damascus, which is desperately attempting to hold things together economically amid severe and far-reaching US-led sanctions, runaway inflation, an American occupation in the northeast which has severed valuable domestic energy resources, and an increasing lack of basic imports and staples for the population.

It also comes amid significant rumors of indirect attempts of the Iranians and Saudis to ease tensions and de-escalate proxy wars in places like Yemen and Iraq.

Interestingly The Guardian and other Western mainstream outlets are now openly acknowledging the proxy war and regime change war nature of the conflict – despite for years the same outlets choosing to only describe it as a “popular uprising” that was an outgrowth of the Arab Spring.

The publication now belatedly writes that “Two years earlier, Riyadh had been central to a plan to oust Assad by arming anti-Assad forces near Damascus and encouraging defections to nearby Jordan, from where the Saudi leadership had expected Barack Obama to launch a push by US proxies to take the Syrian capital.”

Assad emerged victorious, which was pretty much guaranteed after Russia’s 2015 intervention in support of government forces, despite much of the country being in ruins and the economy now suffocating under a sanctions chokehold. 

 

end

IRAQ/USA

Rockets raining over major uSA bases in Iraq last night

(South Front)

Rockets Rain Over US Bases In Iraq

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 09:25 PM

Submitted by South Front,

Military bases of the United States in Iraq are suffering from poor weather conditions, as it would seem it’s raining rockets in the first days of May and late April.

Late on May 2nd, the US Camp Victory in Iraq came under rocket fire. Two rockets hit the site near the Baghdad airport. The third shell was reportedly intercepted by the C-RAM anti-aircraft system.

It was the second attack on Camp Victory in the last 10 days.

Not too long after, on May 3d, the Balad Air Base in the Salah al-Din province that houses Iraqi forces and US contractors was targeted by another rocket attack. The commander of the base, Div. Gen. Sahi Abdul Ameri, said that a total of 9-10 explosions were heard, but only three self-made rockets exploded on the territory of the base.

The rockets reportedly were 107mm Katyushas. Alleged photos show that the launchers were labeled with photos of assassinated Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and Popular Mobilization Units commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

Still, the Pentagon said the increasing frequency of attacks against US forces in Iraq does not mean that effective measures are not taken to protect them, adding that the targeted base only hosted only by Iraqi troops and contractors working for an American company.

Alongside this, almost daily IED attacks target convoys moving logistic supplies and equipment for the US-led coalition all over Iraq. Most recently, on May 2nd, two separate convoys were targeted. Pro-Iranian groups are suspected of carrying out the attacks.

The recent strikes may be in response to explosions at a large chemical plant located near the city of Qom in central Iran, on May 2nd.

A spokesman for the Qom Fire Department told the semi-official ISNA news agency that the fire had been prevented from reaching nearby alcohol tanks which would have caused a “very large accident” if they had caught fire.

There is no official release of what caused the explosion, but it did happen just as there were some reports that some progress had been made in Vienna in negotiations to salvage the Iranian Nuclear Deal. On May 1st, Iran revealed that the US had agreed to lift some sanctions in order to revive the 2015 deal.

Tel Aviv has been attempting to hinder the talks between the US and Iran for a while.

Last month, an act of sabotage targeted Iran’s uranium enrichment facility in Natanz. Israeli intelligence was blamed for this.

The vicious cycle that is the situation around the Iran Nuclear Deal continues, and it is likely that the situation could deteriorate further if Washington and Tehran reach a deal Tel Aviv is unsatisfied with.

TURKEY

A super commentary on how both East and West are isolating our new bad boy Erdogan

(Jay/Strategic Culture Foundation)

Turkey’s New “Enfant Terrible” Role Baffles Even The Region’s Experts

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Martin Jay via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

How did the mercurial Recep Erdogan get himself into the military geopolitical wrangle that he’s in both with the Pentagon and Russia?

April was quite a month for Ankara-based foreign correspondents who were kept busy with what seemed to be a never-ending stream of news stories about Turkey’s role in the world. After the dust has settled, many analysts might conclude that Turkey is now more isolated than ever. The new rogue state in the Middle East. The question is whether the region is better off and more stable and – critically – if the thawing of relations, as a consequence, with both Egypt and Saudi Arabia is sustainable.

From an analyst’s point of view, Turkey’s geopolitics was always a moving target which no one could entirely understand. The opaque nature of Mr Erdogan’s strategy even baffled Turkey’s own best hacks and at times made him look almost Trump like with his serendipity.

The geomilitary strategy of buying Russia’s S-400 missile system and imagining that the U.S. would allow Turkey to also have U.S.-made F-35s was always going to be a brain teaser.

Initially, Turkey pledged to purchase 100 F-35 fighter jets. In 2018, six were meant for Turkey with some conditions about pilot training, but the actual delivery of the jets was postponed after the start of the S-400 crisis between the U.S. and Turkey kicked off.

But by July 2020, things were looking increasingly shaky as eight jets initially intended for Turkey were instead purchased by the U.S. Air Force which was followed by the cancellation of the supply of parts for the jets, from Turkey.

U.S. empties both barrels at Turkey

The final communication which came from the Pentagon removing Turkey from the F-35 program came in late April and banged a final nail in the coffin of a military hardware sharing deal with the U.S. – forcing Turkey, a NATO member, out in the cold. Perhaps a final blow even to Ankara-Washington relations came days later when Joe Biden formally announced his acknowledgement of Turkey’s role in the Armenian genocide.

The reason the U.S. took this position was that there was a growing skittishness from military figures in the Pentagon over whether Turkey can be trusted not to share sensitive information about the jets with Russia. The timing of this decision is both curious and poignant though.

Relations with Russia in recent years have been at best lukewarm and barely cordial at best, but quite delicate at worse. President Putin on occasion has felt the need to issue veiled threats to Erdogan during tense talks over such incendiary subjects like Syria – where both countries are fighting on opposing sides in Idlib – and Erdogan has appeared to respect the lucid but polite warnings from the Russian leader.

Russia out in the cold

But Erdogan recently went over a line with regards to Ukraine making it very clear that his government would always be more sympathetic to siding with Kiev in any dispute with Russia in the Donbas region. On April 21st, President Zelensky met with President Erdogan in Ankara where they underlined the importance of another defense contract which has also proved to be costly to the firebrand Turkish leader: Turkey’s sales of its own drone to Ukraine.

And this is where it gets complicated. If it were not for this deal and the coziness of Ankara and Kiev, Erdogan could have turned to the Russians when the F-35 deal dell flat on its face and struck a new deal over the Russian fighter jets currently making the headlines on the Ukrainian border itself.

The irony here is that Turkey was always the delinquent member of the NATO pack with generals of western countries always questioning whether it could be useful if the west ever had a conflict with Russia – as Turkey, they say, could be relied upon to ‘choke’ the Bosporus straits blocking Russia’s naval fleet to return to its Black Sea base for refueling. Or at least that’s the theory. With the Ukraine crisis in mid-April, and Turkey’s divided loyalties now after being snubbed by the NATO giants as well as Russia, this role is being more and more questioned.

Turkey has literally dug itself into a deeper and deeper hole entrenching itself increasingly with complicated geopolitical and geomilitary relations – and rows – that it is now stuck out in the cold with no partner for stealth fighters.

And yet, with recent shifting plates in the Middle East of old foes becoming friends, some might be forgiven for arguing that Turkey doesn’t need this grade of stealth fighter anyway, which would have been a huge drain on an economy already in the doldrums.

In recent months, we have seen relations with archenemy Saudi Arabia thaw, after King Salman held out an olive branch in November of last year and this theme was followed by the Saudi Crown Prince ‘MBS’ who recently took the decision to re-open the border between KSA and Qatar – its uber-adversary and partner with Turkey. This coincides with a new chapter of relations between Turkey and Egypt, where there was genuinely some bad blood geopolitically which needed tackling head on.

That’s a considerable shift, coming after a seven-year freeze in relations that started after Turkey’s backing of former Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, who was elected in 2012 and affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Morsi was of course deposed in 2013, following uprisings and finally a military coup that led to Abdel Fattah al-Sisi becoming president in 2014, leading to what analysts called a “deep freeze” thereinafter.

But with these new chapters being turned, largely due to Joe Biden becoming U.S. president in December of 2020, a casual observer of Middle East politics might surmise that peace is breaking out in the region – especially with Iraq brokering talks between Iran and KSA presently.

Turkey still has though an ace to play with its largely victorious role in Libya, where in recent weeks we have seen a new attitude from the UAE (also previously an enemy) which is warming to a new political leadership in Tripoli raising many questions as to whether now the “warlord” General Haftar can be trusted to adhere himself to the new mood which his nemesis Ankara can take credit for.

But Ankara still has this enfant terrible role with the European Union. Erdogan creating headlines over a chair incident, which denied EU commission president Ursula von der Leyen the seat next to his when she and the European Council president both visited Ankara, has only soured relations with Brussels to a new low point. With relations also with both the U.S. and NATO at an all-time low, matched only by a new stand-off with Russia, one might be forgiven for thinking that the Turkish president is more comfortable out in the cold and, like a fairground conjurer, he prefers to keep everyone guessing as to what his next move might be. Surely, we won’t have to wait long before the next debacle grabs the media spotlight.

end
 
IRAN/USA

Iran Airs Disturbing Propaganda Clip Of IRGC Blowing Up Capitol Building

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 12:22 PM

Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is stoking tensions once again as the Iranian foreign ministry is engaged in continued ‘indirect’ nuclear talks with the US in Vienna, early this week releasing a short video clip that features an imagined missile attack on the Capitol building in Washington D.C.

The footage aired on Iranian state television on the occasion of a major Sunday speech by the supreme leader Ali Khamenei on the “heroism” of Iran’s revolutionary guard. Set to patriotic music, the video further appears to be a tribute to the slain IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, killed in a US drone strike early last year.

During the middle of the song a ballistic missile is seen launched from the Iranian desert, and that’s when a brief and shocking clip of the missile scoring a direct hit on the US Capitol is featured, with the building immediately engulfed in flames

Newsweek describes the central message of Tehran’s leadership as follows:

The footage of the fake attack also came out the same day Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani declared the U.S. had lost its “economic war” against his country, saying that sanctions against Tehran are at the “brink of extermination,” his rhetoric painting a grim picture for the prospect of the two nations reaching a mutual agreement on a revived Iran nuclear deal.

For much of the past week Iranian officials have issued surprisingly optimistic assessments of where things are headed in Vienna, saying that Washington is prepared to drop Trump-era sanctions, while Biden officials have in their statements put the brakes on, strongly suggesting any kind of final understanding is still far off.

 

Stillframe from the IRGC propaganda video which aired on state TV

The other interesting aspect to the timing of the IRGC propaganda video is that it comes on the heels of the ‘Zarif-Gate’ leaked audio scandal wherein Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is heard criticizing ‘national hero’ Qassem Soleimani, while also broadly accusing the military and IRGC in particular of often sabotaging diplomacy. 

Zarif basically admitted in the audio leak that the powerful IRGC runs the country and even overrides government decisions – something which has never been so bluntly confessed to by a top Iranian official. So the new video of the US Capitol burning could be an attempt to “save face” after the embarrassing Zarif leaked interview ordeal, and to return to the usual bellicose threats.

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE

Here is what you can expect shortly vaccine passports

McMaken/Mises

McMaken: Vaccine Passports Are Just A Way For The Regime To Expand Its Power

 
TUESDAY, MAY 04, 2021 – 08:05 PM

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

Earlier this month, the conservative magazine known as The Spectator published an article with the absurd title “The Libertarian Case for Vaccine Passports.” The online version now bears the title Vaccine Passports Are a Ticket to Freedom,” but the physical print version is perhaps more descriptive of what the author is trying to do.

The author, a Conservative politician named Matthew Parrish, apparently believes that the forever lockdowns are an inescapable feature of reality, and that the only way around them is for the regime to enact a vaccine passport scheme.

For Parrish, covid lockdowns are just a force of nature, like gravity. Now, if only we could find a way to get around these nature-imposed lockdowns!

By now the flaw in Parrish’s logic should be clear. There is nothing natural or inescapable about lockdowns. They are an invention of the state. They are so unnatural, in fact, that they require the use of the state’s police powers to enforce them. They require policemen, handcuffs, courts, prisons, and fines to ensure they are followed. Those who ignore this supposed “force of nature”—and these scofflaws are many—must be punished.

All of this escapes Parrish’s notice, however.

For example, his article begins this way:

In principle I’m in favour of vaccination passports, and don’t understand how—again in principle—anyone could be against the theory….

In other words, Parrish’s position—in his mind, at least—is so correct and so commonsensical that he can’t even comprehend how someone would disagree with him.

This, of course, is always a highly suspect way to begin an article. Any intellectually serious political commentator, if he tries a bit, can at least imagine why others might disagree with him. After decades in government, however, Parrish is so enamored of the idea that the regime ought to control your every move that any another option is apparently beyond the pale of rational thinking.

Parrish goes on:

To me it seems not just sensible and fair but obvious that access to jobs or spaces where there is an enhanced risk of viral transmission might be restricted to people who could demonstrate a high degree of immunity.

There is absolutely nothing libertarian about delaying the lifting of lockdown for everybody, just because it wouldn’t be safe for somebody.

Again, note the core assumption: the regime must tell you where you are allowed to go and what you are allowed to do. It is those dastardly libertarians who are the ones “delaying the lifting of lockdowns.” For Parrish, politicians have been working hard to find a way that society can be set free. These noble policymakers discovered vaccine passports. At long last, people can be allowed to leave their homes. But those libertarians now stand in the way!

Unlike those libertarians, Parrish assures us he is in favor of people leaving their homes and visiting each other in public gathering places. It’s just that his hands were tied before. There were no options available to him other than keeping you locked up. Now, dear taxpayer, won’t you let Parrish and his friends set you free? They want you to be free. It’s just that there’s nothing they can do until you embrace vaccine passports!

If you’re noticing that Parrish sounds a bit like an abusive husband, you wouldn’t be far off. Just as an abuser tells his wife, “See what you made me do!” after he punches her in the face for burning the toast, we see a similar attitude from the vaccine passport crowd: “You see what you’re making me do? I want to let you out of your house, but you refuse to submit to our oh-so-libertarian passport system!”

Yet Parrish is not alone in this sort of thinking. Many others continue to advocate for vaccine passports as some sort of profreedom scheme. Passports are being framed as an “easing of restrictions.”

But, as epidemiologist Martin Kulldorff and Stanford physician Jay Bhattacharya pointed out this month in the Wall Street Journal, there is nothing in the passport scheme that is geared toward lessening regime control of our daily lives. On the contrary, it is all about extending and increasing regime power. Kulldorff and Bhattacharya write:

The idea is simple: Once you’ve received your shots, you get a document or phone app, which you flash to gain entry to previously locked-down venues—restaurants, theaters, sports arenas, offices, schools.

It sounds like a way of easing coercive lockdown restrictions, but it’s the opposite. To see why, consider dining. Restaurants in most parts of the U.S. have already reopened, at limited capacity in some places. A vaccine passport would prohibit entry by potential customers who haven’t received their shots….

Planes and trains, which have continued to operate throughout the pandemic, would suddenly be off-limits to the unvaccinated….

The vaccine passport should therefore be understood not as an easing of restrictions but as a coercive scheme to encourage vaccination….

Naturally, the regime claims this is all “required” by “science,” but

[t]he idea that everybody needs to be vaccinated is as scientifically baseless as the idea that nobody does. Covid vaccines are essential for older, high-risk people and their caretakers and advisable for many others. But those who’ve been infected are already immune. The young are at low risk, and children—for whom no vaccine has been approved anyway—are at far less risk of death than from the flu. If authorities mandate vaccination of those who don’t need it, the public will start questioning vaccines in general.

“Science” mandates nothing as a matter of public policy. Rather, it is policymakers—backed by the violent power of the state—who impose mandates. These are policy choices, not forces of nature. Moreover, as Kulldorff and Bhattacharya note, these aren’t even prudent policy choices, and are based on questionable conclusions wrought from scientific data. The authors continue:

Most of those endorsing the idea belong to the laptop class—privileged professionals who worked safely and comfortably at home during the epidemic. Millions of Americans did essential jobs at their usual workplaces and became immune the hard way. Now they would be forced to risk adverse reactions from a vaccine they don’t need. Passports would entice young, low-risk professionals, in the West and the developing world, to get the vaccine before older, higher-risk but less affluent members of society. Many unnecessary deaths would result.

But we know how the regime will justify mandatory vaccine policies to themselves should some be injured by adverse reactions.

“We had no choice!” the politicians will insist. “Science forced our hand!”

This is a convenient way for politicians to weasel out of responsibility for forcing much of the population—much of it a low-risk population—into submitting to certain state-mandated medical procedures. But lest we take too cynical a view, it’s entirely possible these people are true believers. Like Parrish, the policymakers forcing these policies on citizens and taxpayers might not be able to comprehend any other course of action. This level of moral certitude is a certain privilege of the ruling class, and it certainly has nothing to do with “science.”

END

Please do not give the Pfizer vaccine to children:

(zerohedge)

 

Pfizer Expects Vaccine Will Be “Durable Revenue Stream” As It Seeks Approval For Children 2 To 11

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 08:09 AM

Yesterday, Pfizer released a strong earnings report (surpassing Wall Street’s elevated projections), and also revealed that it’s both on the cusp of securing regulatory approval in the US for minors between the ages of 12 and 15 to receive the vaccine (setting off another wave of demand as the Biden Administration heaps pressure on states to get their vaccination numbers up).

During a call with analysts and reporters, CEO Albert Bourla revealed that Pfizer is in talks with “basically all the governments of the world” about providing shots and booster shots through 2024.

The key number is that Pfizer expects sales of its coronavirus jab to hit $26 billion by the end of this year, a milestone that would make the vaccine the company’s biggest-selling pharmaceutical product, eclipsing Humira, the popular rheumatoid arhtritis drug made by Abbvie. Also, Pfizer said it intends to use its mRNA technology underpinning its COVID-19 jab for other therapies and vaccines. For example, the company is working on creating seasonal flu shots using the same RNA lipid nanoparticle technology.

Bourla has already primed the public to expect to receive at least one additional shot within a year of their second dose, while also teasing the likelihood that the world might require annual booster shots – something that would be a boon to Pfizer’s bottom line as it moves to grow its COVID-19 vaccine division into a major, and permanent, line of business.

To help make its product more durable (and thus increase demand in poorer countries) the company said it is studying whether doses ould be stored at standard refrigerator temperatures.

Regardless, Bourla expects “durable demand” for vaccnes, similar to the flu vaccine.

“It is our hope that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine will continue to have a global impact by helping to get the devastating pandemic under control and helping economies around the world not only open, but stay open,” Bourla said in prepared remarks.

That’s bad news for the rag-tag band of emerging-market economies pushing a proposal at the WTO to waive IP rights when it comes to vaccine technology. If Washington were to back such a move, it would supercharge the “open vaccine” movement, and represent a major threat to Pfizer’s latest profit stream. That effort is being led by India and South Africa, yet Bill Gates and Washington lobbyists have continued to insist that respecting IP and letting Big Pharma handle global distribution (as Covax dramatically lags expectations), which means the status quo is likely safe.

Even as WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus decries a “shocking imbalance in the global distribution of vaccines” and calls for more efforts to fortify the WHO’s Covax programs and speed up delivery to poorer nations, Pfizer appears to be more focused on building out its latest profit stream.

President Biden said Tuesday that while he had yet to make a decision on whether to support a vaccine waiver, the US was already moving “as quickly as we can” to export doses.

Pfizer’s earnings were so strong, they helped lift shares of vaccine makers on the other side of the world. Shares of some Asian vaccine makers with deals to distribute Pfizer’s jabs on the Continent rallied in sympathy with Pfizer. India’s Pfizer Ltd., a unit of Pfizer, rallied 4.9%, on Wednesday while Dr Reddy’s and Cadila Healthcare rallied as much as 2.7% and 5.9%.

Looking ahead, CNN reported Wednesday that the FDA will approve the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID jab for use in 12 to 15 year olds as early as next week. Data released by Pfizer recently purported to show that the jab is 100% effective at preventing serious symptoms. According to recent media reports, Pfizer is also seeking approval for the vaccine to be used on children as young as 2 and as old as 11 in both the US and Europe, an authorization it expects to arrive in September

end.

Canada confirms first death linked to AstraZeneca vaccine

(Reuters)

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for providing this to us

 

Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals

Canada’s Alberta confirms first death linked to AstraZeneca vaccine

The Canadian province of Alberta reported its first death of a patient from a rare blood clot condition after receiving the AstraZeneca (AZN.L) COVID-19 vaccine, its chief medical officer said.

Canada has reported at least five cases of blood clots following immunization with the vaccine, but public health officials maintain the benefits of the AstraZeneca shot outweigh the potential risks.

The Alberta case, of a woman in her 50s, marks the second case of blood clots, and the only death after more than 253,000 doses of AstraZeneca were administered in the province, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw said in a statementon Tuesday.

“While any death is tragic, it is important to remember that the risks of dying or suffering other severe outcomes from COVID-19 remain far greater than the risk following AstraZeneca vaccine,” Hinshaw said.

 

AstraZeneca did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for a comment.

Canada has had 1,243,242 confirmed coronavirus cases and 24,342 deaths, according to a Reuters tally

Last month, the province of Quebec reported Canada’s first death of a patient after receiving the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. read more

AstraZeneca, working with the vaccine’s inventor Oxford University, was one of the leaders in the global race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine. Its cheap and easily transportable shot was hailed as a milestone in the fight against the crisis, but has since faced a series of setbacks.

 

The rare complication, which some regulators including Health Canada are calling Vaccine-Induced Prothrombotic Immune Thrombocytopenia, involves blood clots accompanied by a low count of platelets, cells in the blood that help it to clot.

Dozens of countries paused the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine in March after reports of rare, but serious, blood clots. Several of them have now resumed use either fully or with restrictions after health regulators said the benefits of the shot outweigh any risks. read more

end

Michael Every on the day’s major topics…

(Michael  Every)

Rabo: Who’s Really In The Driver’s Seat?

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 10:44 AM

Authored by Michael Every via Rabobank,

Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu passed a milestone last night when his 28-day mandate to try to form a government expired without him being able to do so. It is possible that for the first time in 12 years he soon won’t be prime minister. I mention this not because of any direct market relevance, but because ‘Bibi’ in at least one way exemplifies one of the problems markets are grappling with: working out who is actually driving.

For example, in recent years Prime Minister Netanyahu was simultaneously head of a combination of up to four of the following at one time: the Communications Ministry; the Foreign Ministry; the Economy Ministry; the Regional Cooperation Ministry; the Ministry of Welfare; the Defence Ministry; the Ministry of Health; and the Ministry for Diaspora Affairs. He could almost hold a cabinet meeting all by himself, and one comedian phoned in for a skit trying to get an interview with several on the above list just to make the pained operator have to explain that they were all just one man – who wasn’t free to talk. So at least in Israel the question of ‘Who’s driving?’ was always clear: Bibi. Elsewhere it still isn’t.

At the head of the ECB we have a former French government minister; at the head of the Italian government we have a former head of the ECB; and at the head of the US Treasury we have a former head of the Fed – and the latter just displayed yet again that it’s sometimes easy to be a back-seat driver. Indeed, Janet Yellen caused market ructions when she noted in public that: “It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy.”

Firstly, because rates aren’t the Treasury Secretary’s job to comment on – EVER. Yes, there is the same need for endless hockey-stick-projection optimism on growth, the same silken spiel, and the same one-size-fits-all Panglossian policy prescriptions (of various vintages: Slash taxes! Raise taxes!) in both roles: but there is a separation of powers between the two.

Secondly, because that very same Panglossian policy from the Fed has got global markets to the point where the mere idea of small increase in US rates is going to bring a whole lot of precariously-levered objects tumbling down. It’s a good job that interest rates never, ever, ever have to go up again then, isn’t?

Naturally, Yellen immediately had to walk back these comments when qualifying that rate increases “are not something that I am predicting or recommending.” So just what was the correct verb then? Speculating? Hypothesizing? Imagining? Dreaming? Deluding?

For now, markets can happily seize on all of the usual Fed-driven speculative hypotheticals to imagine, dream, and delude themselves to greater wealth as usual. US couples everywhere can keep fantasizing that they too can one day get a billionaire divorce. Yet it’s not as if Yellen doesn’t have just *a little* bit of experience in this rate field thing. It’s not as if she might not end up thinking a certain way on autopilot in the new job, and saying the quiet part out loud – is it?

Of course, the question of who is driving applies to the Fed itself. Yellen added: “If anyone appreciates the independence of the Federal Reserve I think that person is me.” Yet unlike the BOE, for example, the Fed allows US banks a major role (if not “ownership”) in its 12 regional Reserve Banks, alongside balancing presidential appointees. So it a fusion body, and even if it is independent of the Treasury, that is hardly true of all influence: the reason for having 12 regional Reserve Banks was originally to water down that of Wall Street. Yet how is that working out, and where are the union/labour representatives, for example? That’s a structural issue the US press doesn’t talk about much even as much of it obsesses about power structures everywhere else; but, sadly, anti-Semitic conspiracy theorists more than compensate, because that’s their defined role.

Meanwhile, we all know the Powell Fed is still firmly in pedal-to-the-metal mode. Yellen just agreed to stay in the back seat in that regard, even if her proposed fiscal policy is the equivalent of winding down the window and sticking her head out of it, like a dog having a good time, which should see any caring central bank driver reduce speed accordingly.

The question remains, however, as to exactly what is driving the massive surge in commodity prices we are still seeing all round us? Headlines yesterday were that corn hit USD7 a bushel, the highest since 2013. Today Bloomberg reports “Raw materials surging across tighter markets and recovery; Consumer prices rising as manufacturers pass on higher costs.” Once upon a time, central banks used to do something when headlines like this were seen. So why no need to brake? Because this is all transitory, as Powell and Yellen, at the second attempt, just underlined.

But how so? Is it Covid-19 related? We already hear that semiconductor supply will be pinched for years. Or perhaps it is all just happening “because markets”, as seems to be the general consensus? Or, just maybe, the Fed, and other major central banks, are also playing a role via their pedal-to-the-metal liquidity? Another key driver is Wall Street realising commodities are an inflation hedge too – even as that creates the inflation they are trying to avoid. (Don’t worry: they still get to eat. Others might not though.) Another is China’s voracious commodity appetite. (Don’t worry: they still get to eat. Others might not though.) One thing we can be sure of. Prices seem to be moving significantly higher, and not just due to the expected base effects.

Ironically, the only way in which Powell –and Yellen– can be sanguine about this is in the knowledge that even if prices go up, US wages almost certainly won’t. Yes, at the moment we are anecdotally seeing US labour shortages as millions of previously low-paid workers prefer to live off of their last stimulus cheque rather than report for the daily drudgery. But have you heard any anecdotes of wages going up as a result – or rather of businesses closing down, or automating? As has been repeated here many times, are the structures *really* being put in place to support sustained higher wages? If not, it’s just higher prices – and so lower real wages.

I am not sure that the 12 regional Reserve Banks and those in DC are aware of what that will feel like to Joe Public. More so if their logical response is to keep monetary stimulus high, and so pushing real wages even lower. If mishandled, this could easily drive us off a cliff. As such, who is really in the driver’s seat?

In the bigger geopolitical picture the same question applies. The UK and US are pushing the G7 to agree a co-ordinated response to all things China and Russia; the EU parliament has paused the EU-China CAI investment deal; and yet US Secretary of State Blinken has rejected claims of a Cold War – or at least he just doesn’t like that label for what is happening. The EU still don’t for sure.

On which note, and also asking who is doing the driving, the ruling New Zealand Labour Party has refused to use the term genocide in regards to Xinjiang in a key parliamentary debate on the topic, instead opting for “human rights abuses” and “in the region”. Next semantic step: the “slight possibility of some naughtiness happening somewhere.”  

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

INDIA//CORONAVIRUS UPDATE/VACCINE UPDATE
 

Infected Indian Foreign Minister Disrupts G-7 Summit In London

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 08:54 AM

As India’s brutal second COVID-19 wave spills over its borders and across the region, a team of forecasters at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore has warned – using a mathematical model – that deaths could double as soon as next week, India’s foreign minister is now self-isolating after two delegates to recent G-7 meetings in London tested positive to the virus, Bloomberg reports.

India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar was reportedly informed that he had been exposed to somebody infected with the virus on Wednesday, one day after Jaishankar held a socially distanced in-person meeting with UK home secretary Priti Patel on Tuesday, where the two agreed on a “migration and mobility deal’ which will provide a “bespoke route” for young professionals from India looking to live and work in the UK. Jaishankar also met Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, earlier this week.

Subrahmanyam Jaishankar meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken

As one twitter wit pointed out, the incident is like a metaphor for India’s current situation, as more public-health experts warn that India’s worsening outbreak risks reviving outbreaks in the US and Europe. Many countries have moved to cut off all non-essential travel between India for exactly this reason.

As Bloomberg points out, the blowback could turn into an embarrassment for the US and the Biden Administration. The announcement could swiftly shut down a high-profile event that is supposed to mark the G-7 debut of Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The two-day event is being hosted by the UK.

Fortunately, according to the FT, members of the Indian delegation hadn’t yet attended G7 meetings in Lancaster House, London, where talks took place on Tuesday and continued on Wednesday.

The meetings, the first face-to-face gathering of the group’s foreign ministers in more than two years, were set to include representatives from Australia and India in some of the sessions alongside the G-7 advanced economies as the UK (and the US) seeks to strengthen its ties within the Indo-Pacific region.

British PM Boris Johnson defended the decision to hold the G7 meetings in person, arguing that it was important for the government “to try to continue as much business” as possible despite the pandemic. 

“We have a very important relationship with India and with our G7 partners”, he said while campaigning ahead of Thursday’s local elections. “As I understand it, what has happened is the individuals concerned are all isolating now,” he said.

BoJo added that he would have a meeting with Jaishankar on Wednesday afternoon via Zoom.

Officials believe that, based on discussions with Public Health England, those who attended meetings with Jaishankar have a low risk of contracting the virus. Still, fears about possible spread are already disrupting the summit, and could force delegates to attend meetings remotely from their hotel rooms.

Meanwhile, India reported a record 3,780 deaths on Wednesday for an overall toll of 226,188, along with 382,315 new cases, taking its outbreak past 20.6 million infections.

 
end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY  morning 7:30 AM….

Euro/USA 1.2014 DOWN .0004 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems ///ITALIAN CHAOS//CORONAVIRUS/PANDEMIC/TRUMP POSITIVE WITH VIRUS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN  

USA/ YEN 109.28 DOWN 0.057 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3916  UP   0.0028  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED/

USA/CAN 1.2274 UP .0028 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS  WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL BY 4 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.2014 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 28.04 PTS OR .91% 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 139.16 PTS OR 0.49%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.28% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN  

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL GREEN  

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang UP 139.16 PTS OR 0.49%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 28.04 PTS OR .91% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.28%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 241.34 PTS OR .83%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1779.15

silver:$26.36-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.610% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.278 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 91.23  DOWN 4 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.46% UP 2  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.095%  UP 0   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/56

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.45%//  UP 2 in basis point yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.90 UP 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 45 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO –.23% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.07% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2002  DOWN     .0012 or 12 basis points

USA/Japan: 109.27  DOWN .063 OR YEN UP 6  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3914 UP .0026 POUND UP 26  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 43 basis points to 1.2257

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (DOWN).. 6.4736

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.750  (YUAN DOWN)..6.4852

TURKISH LIRA:  8.32  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.095%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.602 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.277 UP 1 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 91.28  DOWN 1  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 54.94 PTS OR 0.79% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 383.76 PTS OR 2.52% 

 

Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 67,68PTS OR 1.07% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN  80.60  PTS OR  0.91%  

 

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 462.94 PTS OR 1.90% 

 

WTI Oil price; 65.41 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 68.85 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:    74.94  THE CROSS  LOWER BY 0.04 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 4 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO –.23 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 65.27//

BRENT :  68.63

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.578..down 2 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.251 down 2 basis points..

EURO/USA 1.2004 (down 11   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.20 DOWN .135 (YEN UP BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 91.28 DOWN  1  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA:1.3909 UP 22  POINTS

the Turkish lira close: 8.32

the Russian rouble 74.88   DOWN 0.05 Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN  5 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2270  UP  31 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.23%

The Dow closed UP 97.31 POINTS OR 0.29%

NASDAQ closed down 51.08 POINTS OR 0.37%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  18.88 CLOSED DOWN 0.60

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.176%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Commodity Chaos Continues, Stocks Refuse To Bounce After Janet’s Jolt

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 04:00 PM

While bonds, crypto, and the dollar largely trod water today, Commodities rose for a record 16th straight day today…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest for that index since July 2015…

Source: Bloomberg

After Janet Yellen shit the bed yesterday, today’s bounce was barely noticeable (and non-existent in most cases)…

The Dow outperformed on the day with Big-Tech and Small Caps the laggards…

At 1400ET a major sell program slammed stocks – around the same time as the Biden admin supported the waiver on COVID vaccine-patents at the WTO.

Source: Bloomberg

Get back to work Mrs.Yellen…

Peloton puked as it recalled its child-eating Treadmill…

 

Treasuries were modestly bid today, improving late on as stocks slumped. The belly is outperforming this week with 7Y down 6bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y tested above 1.60% once again but could not hold it…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar oscillated around in a tight range today ending unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

Loonie at 4 year highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was modestly higher today, but ETH traded in a narrow range, unable to make a new record high… for a change…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices hit a new cycle high before WTI tumbled back below $65 (despite a big surprise crude draw) as perhaps weaker than expected product demand raises red flags. Also on a technical note, today saw the stops run from OPEC’s spike…

Lumber surged above $1600 today – a new record high – and is rapidly heading towards surpassing gold (for the first time since 2004)…

Source: Bloomberg

And while Commodities continue to charge higher (Spot Ag at its highest since Oct 2012), Cocoa is bucking the trend amid a period of oversupply at a time when the pandemic is hurting global chocolate demand…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold managed to hold on to gains today with futures hovering around $1780 (unable to break $1800 once again)…

And while LME Copper nears $10,000 (and its record highs from 2011), Zambia – which relies on the metal for 70% of its export earnings – is not seeing the benefits as the Kwacha collapses to a new record low (against the USD)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that 5Y Breakevens pushed to their highest since 2006 today…

Source: Bloomberg

But, of course, this is all just transitory.

a)Market trading/THIS MORNING/USA

b)MARKET TRADING/USA//THIS AFTERNOON/

 

end

 
ii) Market data
ADP
The private ADP data (always bullish) shows employment still 8 million jobs below pre COVID 19
(ADP/zerohedge)

Over 8 Million Jobs Below Pre-COVID Levels: ADP Employment Data Disappoints In April

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 08:25 AM

After a notable disappointment in the last two months, ADP’s National Employment report was expected to print a very positive 850k additions in April but again it disappointed with a ‘mere’ 742k jobs added (though March additions were revised higher from +517k to +565k).

Source: Bloomberg

That is the fourth straight month of gains (and most since September).

The largest businesses overall added the most jobs with only the Information sector losing jobs in April…

Once again, Services job gains massively outpace goods-producing jobs.

Source: Bloomberg

Leisure & Hospitality services rose the most…

“The labor market continues an upward trend of acceleration and growth, posting the strongest reading since September 2020,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

“Service providers have the most to gain as the economy reopens, recovers and resumes normal activities and are leading job growth in April. While payrolls are still more than 8 million jobs short of pre-COVID-19 levels, job gains have totaled 1.3 million in the last two months after adding only about 1 million jobs over the course of the previous five months.”

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, ahead of Friday, we note that ADP has serially under-predicted BLS payrolls data with a big miss last month…

Source: Bloomberg

So will Friday show a one-million-job-plus gain

END

INFLATION WATCH//SERVICE PMI

USA service PMI’s both reveal serious stagflation coming our way.

(zerohedge

‘Anything But Transitory’ – US Services Sector Surveys Signal Serious Stagflation

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 10:06 AM

After the mixed picture from manufacturing surveys (PMI higher, ISM lower), analysts expected Services sector surveys to improve in April. And amid continued weakness in hard economic data, Markit’s Services sector survey thrashed expectations (64.7 vs 63.1 exp) and surged to record high (with its 11th month of expansion). However, like its manufacturing brother, ISM Services disappointed expectations and fell from 63.7 to 62.7 (well below the expected rise to 64.1)

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, the picture from ‘soft’ survey-land is ‘mixed’ at best…

  • Markit Manufacturing rose in April to record high

  • PMI Manufacturing plunged in April after reaching its highest since 1983 in March

  • Markit Services jump in April to record high

  • PMI Services dropped in April from record highs in March

Source: Bloomberg

Stagflation fears remain front and center…

As inflation soars…

“…input costs faced by service sector firms increased at an unprecedented rate in April. The substantial rise in cost burdens was often linked to hikes in supplier prices and greater transportation fees. Companies particularly noted higher costs of plastic, packaging, PPE and fuel.”

And production/output falls…

The IHS Markit Composite PMI Output Index posted 63.5 in April, up from 59.7 in March, to signal the sharpest upturn in private sector output since data collection began in October 2009.

The overall expansion was supported by faster growth in both manufacturing and service sector activity.

And US is leading the world…

Source: Bloomberg

Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“Thanks to the cocktail of a successful vaccine roll-out, the reopening of the economy, ultra-accommodative monetary policy and injection of fresh fiscal stimulus, businesses are reporting the strongest surge in demand seen for at least a decade.

“The upswing in demand has led to one of the strongest months of job creation yet recorded by the survey as business prepares for better times ahead.

The biggest threat to the outlook remains new virus variants, which will inevitably mean international travel and associated business activity will stay under pressure for some time to come, but in the meantime the domestic economy is faring very well, especially consumer facing industries.

Another concern is prices, with a record increase in service sector charges highlighting how inflationary pressures are by no means confined to the manufacturing sector. Indicators of price pressures and capacity constraints will need to be monitored closely to assess whether such price rises are transitory.”

This sounds like anything but transitory, especially considering some of the survey respondents:

  • “Restaurant capacity is increasing quickly as restrictions are removed. Consumers have pent-up demand; sales are increasing, and the labor pool is tight. Supply chain is challenged at every level as businesses across the U.S. ramp up.” (Accommodation & Food Services)
  • “Delays in container deliveries are now impacting our business.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
  • “Higher volume of activity in anticipation of a reopening of the campus in the fall of 2021.” (Educational Services)
  • “Elective surgeries coming back to pre-COVID-19 rates. Patient census continues to drop, as it does this time of year.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
  • “Overall, there is pricing pressure for goods and services in the market.” (Information)
  • “Supply has been dwarfed by demand [and] ocean-transport logistics imbalances with ships and containers. North America parcel carriers swamped with volume-processing constraints, and highway carriers can’t supply drivers, regardless of choked original equipment manufacturer [OEM] truck orders. Rail intermodal is only competitive among two dozen or so origins, to about as many destinations.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “Business is generally upbeat. There is pent-up demand and resources, especially people. The pandemic, while not over, is subsiding in most places with the vaccines. Many people who were previously unable to think about relocating for jobs are now doing so. Other areas of the economy are opening up. Many medical treatments that were not critical and were put off are now being administered.” (Public Administration)
  • “Business levels are quite strong as we head into the spring construction season.” (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)
  • “Business optimism is high. Orders are picking up, and there is a strong demand for capital investments.” (Utilities)
  • “Business is very robust, but logistics and supply cannot keep up.” (Wholesale Trade)

And then this:

  • “Consistent with the past year, labor continues to be the biggest issue we are facing. Finding and retaining labor — skilled and unskilled — is highly challenging and frustrating. As the challenges continue, we are not accepting all the work that we could if we had the labor.” (Construction)

Which is to be expected when the government pays “workers” more to do no work.

END

iii) Important USA Economic Stories

Demographics:  this is very deflationary:  USA births fall to the lowest level in a generation..probably due to millenials not wanting children

(zerohedge)

US Births Fall To Lowest Level In A Generation Amid Pandemic “Baby Bust”

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 07:11 AM

A little over a week ago, we reported on one of the biggest deflationary threats looming over the global economy: that is, China’s shrinking population, as deaths outpace births for the first time, a trend that demographers believe will only worsen as the impact of China’s one-child policy is felt on its population numbers.

And as Wall Street banks and America’s largest corporations complain about growing inflationary pressures in their sell-side research and earnings calls, the latest population update from the CDC has just confirmed that the deflationary trend of a falling birth rate continued last year in the US. In fact, one could argue this trend has been supercharged by the pandemic, thwarting theories about a lockdown “baby boom” as the number of births in the US fell by 4% in 2020, dropping to the lowest level since 1979.

Put another way: thanks to the pandemic, US birth rates have fallen to their lowest level in a generation.

Source: Bloomberg

Birth rates dropped across every race, ethnicity and age group – even teenagers (though teenage birth rates have been falling in the US for decades), according to the data, which was published by the CDC’s National Center for Health.

As we noted at the time, a shrinking population is bound to create serious challenges for China’s debt-fueled economy. It’s one reason to doubt President Xi’s propaganda about China being “on the rise” globally.

Still, declining birth rates are a problem across the developed world, and the US is no exception. The provisional data for 2020, at 3.6MM births, marks the 6th annual drop in a row. The decline will likely continue in 2021, when the brunt of the impact from the pandemic will be recorded, but with a nine-month delay.

Bloomberg suggested that fears of contracting the virus while pregnant, or while in hospital to give birth, combined with job insecurity and government measures limiting social contact and business activity, dissuaded Americans from having babies, according to surveys by Ovia Health, a women’s health technology company.

“There are several factors that go into family planning, and an entire ecosystem of support that enables and empowers parents and parents-to-be,” said Paris Wallace, chief executive of Ovia Health. “In 2020, nearly all of those factors were turned on their head, and many of those support systems came crashing down.”

While birth rates fell for women in all age groups between 15 and 40, the declines were steeper in states that were hit the hardest by COVID-19, such as California and New York. And the exodus from crowded urban centers exacerbated the drop in birth rates in places like NYC, where the constant shriek of ambulance sirens over the summer likely made it difficult for couples to get in the mood.

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, many pregnant couples in the city fled to give birth elsewhere (well, at least those who could afford to do so).

The percentage of births to NYC residents that occurred outside of the city increased for all months between March and November. Non-Hispanic White residents were 2.5x more likely to give birth outside of the city in April and May 2020 than during the same period a year earlier.

Here are some other key findings courtesy of Bloomberg.

  • Births in Florida surpassed those in New York last year — by just 440. It’s still significant given that the differential in favor of New York was about 1,500 and 5,000 in 2019 and 2018, respectively.
  • Fewer than 10,000 babies were born in Alaska, Vermont, Washington D.C., and Wyoming in 2020.
  • The number of births fell 3% for Hispanic women, 4% for both non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic Black women, and 8% for non-Hispanic Asian women.

To sum up, a declining birth rate leaves the US with two options: either increase the inflow of immigrants, or risk a blowout in the per-capita level of America’s exploding debt.

END

Biden’s new laws outlawing the GIG worker as they must become employees.  This is causing major problems for Uber and Lyft as we have outlined to you on several occasions.

(zerohedge)

Uber And Lyft Now Face Driver Shortages, Biden Unveils More Anti-Business, ‘Gig Worker’ Regulatory Threats

BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 09:10 AM

Update (0915ET): The Biden administration has canceled a signature Trump-era rule that would’ve eased businesses’ ability to legally consider workers as independent contractors.

The U.S. Labor Department said the rollback was necessary to broadly extend wage protections while cracking down on employer abuses.

A final rule, issued Wednesday, rescinded the pro-business regulation without replacing it with a new interpretation of when workers can function as independent contractors and when they must be classified as employees under federal law, who are entitled to minimum wage and overtime pay.

For some reason the shares of Uber and Lyft are up on this anti-business move…

*  *  *

In addition to dealing with potential looming regulation nationwide that could turn “contractors” into “employees” – essentially eviscerating their entire business models – Uber and Lyft are also in the midst of dealing with a nationwide shortage in drivers. 

“A lot of gig workers should be classified as employees,” U.S. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh said last week, according to Reuters. This added to President Joe Biden’s campaign promises of making sure that gig workers received benefits. 

The comments cause shares of Uber and Lyft to temporarily plunge, with both names falling between 8% and 12%, before recovering. 

In addition to the looming threat to their business models, the companies are also having trouble serving the increased demand. Reuters notes that “many U.S. drivers still unwilling to return to the road over safety and financial concerns, meaning the companies risk disgruntled customers or higher costs to incentivize drivers to return.”

Bernstein said in a recent note: “(It’s) a better problem to have, but one that could put wrinkles in profitability timelines it if persists.”

Lyft reported earnings on Tuesday after the bell, showing signs of a continued pandemic recovery and beating top and bottom line expectations, according to CNBC. Uber is expected to report earnings on Wednesday after the bell. The consensus EPS estimate for Uber heading into Wednesday is -$0.35 and revenue is expected to come in at $3.28 billion.

“We continue to believe there is still significant pent-up demand for mobility that will take time to play out,” Lyft CEO Logan Green said on the company’s conference call.

If they can find the drivers…

END

 
 

/CORONAVIRUS UPATE//VACCINE/ USA

Stocks Tumble As White House Backs WTO Plan To Waive IP Protections For COVID Vaccines

 
WEDNESDAY, MAY 05, 2021 – 03:23 PM

In a major rebuke to the west’s biggest vaccine makers (including Pfizer, Moderna and J&J), President Joe Biden has decided to break with the Bill Gates-backed status quo and support a WTO initiative to make COVID-19 vaccine intellectual property open to all.

Biden’s top trade representative Katherine Tai, the administration’s point person on the waiver issue, told Bloomberg in an interview Wednesday that the White House has decided to back the waiver. As a result, the Biden White House will now actively seek to convince other WTO members to back the proposal, an issue that will take time and “not be easy.”

“We are for the waiver at the WTO, we are for what the proponents of the waiver are trying to accomplish, which is better access, more manufacturing capability, more shots in arms,” Tai said in an interview on Wednesday.

[…]

“In terms of how soon the WTO can deliver — that literally depends on the WTO members, collectively, being able to deliver, and so I am the first one to admit that what we are leaning into is a process that is not going to be easy,” Tai said. She added that she sees energy from WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala “to take this opportunity and see what is the WTO capable of.”

US stocks pulled back on the news, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the selloff, as support for the WTO waiver proposal sponsored by India and South Africa would likely help accelerate the pace of vaccinations across the developing world.

Shares of Pfizer…

…and Moderna…

…were hit particularly hard since the success of the waiver would likely severely devalue their COVID vaccine business, which Pfizer said just yesterday will likely be a “durable revenue stream” as COVID vaccines likely become an annual dose like the flu vaccine.

Before announcing his divorce, Bill Gates recently doubled down on his opposition to the IP waiver proposal, insisting (seemingly without evidence) that poorer countries would be better off waiting to buy jabs from Pfizer, Moderna, J&J and others instead of rushing to make their own under an “open vaccine”-style paradigm.

It’s just the latest blow against Gates, the world’s de facto COVID vaccine czar, in what is shaping up to be a rough week for the billionaire. Fortunately for him, a host of other developed nations – including the UK, EU, Japan, Switzerland, Brazil and Norway – still oppose the waiver. But US support could possibly change their views.

iv) Swamp commentaries/

 

 
END
 

v) King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

 Stocks tumbled on Tuesday morning, led by tech issues and Fangs.  Nasdaq declined as much as 2.95%, over 4% since its opening on Thursday.  The NY Fang+ Index declined as much as 3.4%.

Meanwhile, corn soared above $7 for the first time since 2013; oil and gasoline surged higher.  Bonds rallied a buck.

Yellen Says Rates May Have to Rise to Stop Economy Overheating – BBG 11:10 ET

Yellen Says Spending May Spur ‘Modest’ Interest-Rate Rises
“It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure our economy doesn’t overheat,” Yellen said in an interview with the Atlantic recorded Monday that was broadcast on the web on Tuesday. “It could cause some very modest increases in interest rates.”…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yellen-says-spending-may-spur-160457990.html

Yellen Says Marginal Tax Rates Are Much Less Powerful in Influencing Growth Than Many Thought 11:16 ET

Was anyone tipped off before the markets opened on Tuesday about Yellen’s remarks on Monday?

Fed’s Kaplan, in interview, presses for start of discussion on tapping brakes on support for economy     https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-kaplan-in-interview-presses-for-start-of-discussion-on-tapping-brakes-on-support-for-economy-11620146727

The Yellen decline made a bottom just before noon ET.  The DJTA turned positive minutes later.

@bcheungz: San Francisco Fed President @MaryDalyEcon (FOMC voter) just now [13:15 ET]: “We’re a long way from achieving full employment and price stability goals, so it’s not really the right time to start talking about normalization.”

ESMs and US stocks stair-stepped higher in the afternoon, buoyed by SF Fed President Daly’s counter to Yellen and Kaplan’s hawkish remarks.  There was a spurt higher at the close, possibly on a leak of this:

Yellen Says She’s Not Predicting or Recommending Rate Increase – BBG   16:04 ET

Yellen Says She Isn’t Predicting Higher Interest Rates
Treasury Secretary walks backs comments she made earlier suggesting that rates might rise
https://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-says-interest-rates-may-have-to-rise-to-keep-economy-from-overheating-11620151101
@YahooFinance: Munger on Robinhood: ‘It’s deeply wrong. We don’t want to make our money selling things that are bad for people’ [What about KO and Dairy Queen?] https://t.co/HFwUpo1yyH

Robinhood Slams Buffett And Munger for ‘Insulting a New Generation’ of Investors
The old guard of investing is at it again,” a Robinhood spokesperson said in a Medium post Monday morning, adding that “if the last year has taught us anything, it is that people are tired of the Warren Buffetts and Charlie Mungers of the world acting like they are the only oracles of investing
    It is clear that the elites benefited from a stock market that kept many families sidelined from participating while they amassed huge wealth from decades of investing.”…
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/05/03/robinhood-slams-billionaires-buffett-and-munger-for-insulting-a-new-generation-of-investors/

Former President Trump launches new communications platform ‘From the Desk of Donald J. Trump’ – The posts have buttons for people to share to Twitter and Facebook
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/former-president-trump-launches-new-communications-platform-desk

CME Group to Permanently Close Most Open Outcry Trading Pits; Eurodollar Options Pit will Remain Open – S&P 500 Futures and Options will be Delisted Following the September Roll with Open Interest Migrating to E-mini S&P 500 Contracts
http://investor.cmegroup.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cme-group-permanently-close-most-open-outcry-trading-pits

Rumors have the CME looking to exit Chicago, Illinois for a more business-friendly state.

@nytimes: Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine generated $3.5 billion in revenue in the first three months of 2021, the company reported Tuesday. Unlike several rival manufacturers, Pfizer decided to sell its vaccine for a profit during the pandemic. [Follow. The. Money!]  https://nyti.ms/3biKQBF

@barnes_law: Census surveys voters each year to determine who voted. Historically, they overestimate the number of voters b/c people claim they voted who didn’t. A really odd thing happened though this year: The Census counted almost 4 million FEWER voters than ballots.
https://twitter.com/barnes_law/status/1389611188925845509

 

The Democratic Party’s Stasi
The Biden Justice Department is “the shield and the sword”—the motto of East Germany’s Stasi—for the Democratic Party, protecting its own corrupt ranks while terrorizing any and all detractors
   Joe Biden’s Justice Department now operates as the unapologetic enforcer of the Democratic Party’s will, a modern-day Stasi unleashing a campaign of terror against the ruling party’s perceived enemies…
https://t.co/Dh5zEoG9uW

The Criminalization of Dissent
One of the hallmarks of totalitarian systems is the criminalization of dissent. Not just the stigmatization of dissent or the demonization of dissent, but the formal criminalization of dissent, and any other type of opposition to the official ideology of the totalitarian system…
    As The New York Times reported last week (German Intelligence Puts Coronavirus Deniers Under Surveillance)… According to Al Jazeera, the German Interior Ministry explained that these querdenking “extremists encourage supporters to ignore official orders and challenge the state monopoly on the use of force.”… This isn’t just a German story, of course. As I reported in a column in February, The “New Normal” War on Domestic Terror is a global war, and it’s just getting started. According to a Department of Homeland Security “National Terrorism Advisory System Bulletin” (and the “liberal” corporate-media propaganda machine), “democracy” remains under imminent threat from these “ideologically-motivated violent extremists with objections to the exercise of governmental authority” and other such “grievances fueled by false narratives” including “anger over Covid-19 restrictions.”…
https://consentfactory.org/2021/05/03/the-criminalization-of-dissent/

Nolte: Fake News Trifecta as WaPo, NY Times, and NBC Retract Giuliani Smear
All three fake news outlets reported Giuliani had received a defensive briefing from the FBI warning him he was the target of a Russian influence campaign… Isn’t it amazing how all these so-called “mistakes” always fall one way??…  https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2021/05/02/nolte-fake-news-trifecta-wapo-ny-times-nbc-retract-giuliani-smear/

@nytimes: Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, is quietly considering trying to use a fast-track budget maneuver to legalize millions of undocumented immigrants should bipartisan talks on providing a pathway to citizenship fall aparthttps://t.co/ZRUMtTDcpD

Florida teen accused of rigging homecoming election to be tried as adult – casting nearly 250 bogus votes so she could snag the homecoming crown…Grover and her mother, 50-year-old Laura Rose Carroll, are facing multiple felonies [face 16 years] for fixing the October homecoming vote at Tate High School in Pensacola… https://nypost.com/2021/05/04/florida-teen-accused-of-rigging-homecoming-election-to-be-tried-as-adult/

Yet the massive vote rigging and fraud in the 2020 election goes mostly unpunished and largely ignored!

end

Let us close out Wednesday with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

Absolute Interference Documentary by Mike Lindell

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Nobody is doing more to reveal and draw attention to the massive election fraud of 2020 than My Pillow CEO Mike Lindell.  His second documentary on this profound national security disaster is brought out in “Absolute Interference.”  If you want to be informed, this is a must watch video.  This is a free download that I am running to help draw attention to an issue that affects all Americans here on USAWatchdog.com.  This is a 2 hour documentary packed with information about how the 2020 Election was hacked by foreign players.

Most people do not know of the special report that Director of National Intelligence (DNI) John Ratcliffe dropped just a few days before the end of the Trump Administration.  One headline reads: “Bombshell Report: China Interfered In the 2020 Federal Elections.”  Lindell is on solid ground, and a government report comprised of information from 17 of America’s intel agencies backs up Lindell’s “Absolute Interference.”  There are many experts featured in this 2 hour documentary including Lt. General Michael Flynn, former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at the Pentagon.

With the ongoing audit of election fraud in Arizona, this new documentary is more relevant than ever. Enjoy the very enlightening and educational show.

Absolute Interference Documentary by Mike Lindell | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

 

I WILL SEE  YOU THURSDAY NIGHT

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