OCT 6/GOLD CLOSED UP 80 CENTS TO $1761.30//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 3 CENTS TO $22.57//GOLD TONNAGE STANDING INCREASES BY A GOOD 5600 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO 50.08 TONNES//SILVER ADVANCES SLIGHTLY TO 8.240 MILLION OZ/COVID COMMENTARIES//VACCINE MANDATES & COMMENTARIES//IVERMECTIN UPDATES//MAJOR STORIES: ONTARIO EMERGENCY DOCTOR RESIGNS OVER COVID VACCINES//SHE CLAIMS THAT 80% OF HER ER PATIENTS HAVE MYSTERIOUS ILLNESSES DESPITE BEING DOUBLE VACCINATED//SOVEREIGN CANADA INITIATES MANDATORY VACCINE SHOTS FOR ALL FEDERAL WORKERS + ALL PASSENGERS MUST BE DOUBLE VACCINATED//NEW YORK FIRES 1400 HEALTH CARE WORKERS/CHINA FOLDS AND ALLOWS COAL INTO THEIR COUNTRY FROM AUSTRALIA AS THE CRISIS IN CHINA ESCALATES//GERMANY’S LARGEST AMMONIUM COMPANY CUTS OUTPUT DRASTICALLY DUE TO HIGHER GAS PRICES// EUROPEAN POLITICIANS PANIC AS GAS PRICES EXPLODE 40% OVERNIGHT//PUTIN IN TRUE STATESMANSHIP , OFFERS TO STABILIZE EUROPE WITH GAS SUPPLY//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

 

GOLD:$1761.30 UP $0.80   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$22.57 DOWN 3  CENTS  London spot price ( cash market)

 
 
4:30 closing price
 
Gold $1762.80
 
silver:  22.61
 
 
 
end
 

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINUM  $990.85 UP  $25.25

PALLADIUM: $1892.95 DOWN $24.90/OZ 

 

END

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DETAILS//NOTICES FILED

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today 6/9

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,759.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/05/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 10/07/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 6
661 H JP MORGAN 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 9
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 9 9
MONTH TO DATE: 12,294

issued:  0

Goldman Sachs stopped: 1

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT. CONTRACT: 9 NOTICE(S) FOR 900 OZ  (0.0279 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR THIS MONTH:  12,294 FOR 1,229,400 OZ  (38.239 TONNES) 

 

SILVER//OCT CONTRACT

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  0   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 1551  :  for 7,755,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $51,386 UP 168  DOLLARS 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$52970 DOLLARS  UP 1752. 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD  UP $0.80 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:  

 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD  986.54 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS

 NO CHANGES  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 

 

 

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULT. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT: 

 

549.941  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 165.01 UP 0.42 OR 0.26%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 20.96 UP. 04 OR 0.19%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
 

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY 38 CONTRACTS TO 139,763, AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. WITH OUR $0.03 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON TUESDAY.
 

OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN ,(IT ROSE BY $0.03) AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY GAIN OF 360 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.WE  ALSO HAD I) HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/WE ALSO HAD  SOME ii) REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A  STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 8.085 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S, 25,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  / v), TINY SIZED COMEX OI GAIN

 
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:
 
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS – 16
 
SPREADING OPERATIONS(/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 
 
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS
 
 
OCT
 
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:
 
2501 CONTACTS  for 4 days, total 2501 contracts or 12.505million oz…average per day:  625 contracts or 3.126 million oz per day.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF

OCT:  12.505 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON  

 

LAST 5 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 140.120 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

 

 
RESULT: , .. , WITH OUR TINY 3 CENT GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX / TUESDAY WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 38  CONTRACTSTHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 306 CONTRACTS( 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR OCT AND  306 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DECEMBER) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS
 
 
THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY:/TODAY WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 344 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES AS WELL AS HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE/  /// WE HAVE A STRONG INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT OF 8.085 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
 
 

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR NIL OZ

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1901  CONTRACTS TO 483,789 _ ,,AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -294  CONTRACTS.

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.30///COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE  HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION  AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED 1451 CONTRACTS…..  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 49.667 TONNES, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 5300 OZ//NEW TONNAGE STANDING:  50.08 TONNES 
 
 
 
 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.90 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 1451  OI CONTRACTS (4.513 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 450 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  AND JULY:  0; AUGUST: 0 & DEC 450  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 450 The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 483,789. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1451 CONTRACTS: 1901 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 450 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1451 CONTRACTS OR 3.598 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1901 OI): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1451 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 49.667 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 5300 OZ//NEW STANDING: 50.08 TONNES/ / 3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS 5). SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL 

 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 8869, CONTRACTS OR 886,900 oz OR 27.58 TONNES (4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2217 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 27.58 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  27.58/3550 x 100% TONNES  0.77% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           27.58 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 38 CONTRACTSTO 139,779 AND FURTHER FORM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 306 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 0  AND SEPT: 0; DEC 306  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  306 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 38 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 306 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 344 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 0.965 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.03 GAIN IN PRICE. 

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Peter Schiff, Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

 
 
 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED     //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 137.66 PTS OR 0.57% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 295.25 PTS OR 1.05%    //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed   /Oil DOWN TO 78.58 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 81.99 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED   /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  XXXX AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT XXXX. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4695/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 
 
 
 
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1901 CONTRACTS TO 483,789 MOVING FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $5.30 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING.WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (450 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY BAILING OUT!!

 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.  

 

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 450 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  JULY 0 & AUGUST:  & DEC.  450 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:   450 CONTRACTS 

 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED 1451  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 450 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI OF 1901 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT   (50.08),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 8 MONTHS OF 20201:

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB. 113.424 TONNES

JAN: 6.500 TONNES.

 

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- SEPT): 423.205 TONNNES

 

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $5.30

.,AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 4.51 TONNES,ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT (50.08 TONNES)…  I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.   THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”.

WE HAD -294   CONTRACTS FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT. 

 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 1451 CONTRACTS OR 145,100 OZ OR 4.513 TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  483,789 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 48.37 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  15.04 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1504/2200 OR 68.36% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY 156,435 contracts//    / volume//volume poor/

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 159,848 contracts//poor

 

// //most of our traders have left for London

 

OCT 6

/2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR OCT COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
95,902.402OZ
Manfra
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
 
 
67,156.799
 
oz
Brinks
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
900  notice(s)
900 OZ
 
0.279 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
3807 contracts
380,700 oz
 
11.84 TONNES
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
12,294 notices
1,229.400 OZ
38.239 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 
 
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 
 
 
 
total deposit: nil   oz 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  1 deposit into the customer account
i) Into Brinks 67,156.799 oz
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS 67,156/799 oz
 
 
 
We had 1  customer withdrawals
i) Out of Manfra:  95,902.402 oz
 
 
 
total customer withdrawals 95,902.402    oz
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 1  kilobar transactions 1 out of  3 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS 1//   dealer to customer//

Brinks: 289.359  oz 9 kilobars

 

 
 
 
 
the front month of OCT. has an open interest of 3816 contracts for a LOSS of 697 contracts. We had 753 notices served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 56 contracts or 5,600 oz will  stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October as the queue jumping operation starts very early for this month 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NOVEMBER LOST 10 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1061
.
DEC LOST 3874  TO STAND AT 399,779
 

We had 9 notice(s) filed today for 900  oz

FOR THE OCT 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 9  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 1  notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,294) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (OCT: 3816 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  9 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,610,100 OZ OR 50.08 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of OCT.  

 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (12,294) x 100 oz+(3816)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (9} x 100 oz} which equals 1,604,500 oz standing OR 50.08 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained 56 contracts or an additional 5600 oz will stand for gold at the comex.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  50.08 TONNES

 
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

404,814.366, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  12.59 TONNES

285,319.695 PLEDGED  MANFRA 8.8746 TONNES

298,568.054, oz  JPM  9.28 TONNES

1,149,631,831 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/35.76 TONNES

160,865.707, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 4.164 tonnes JPMORGAN

41,127.478 oz International Delaware:  1.27 tonnes

LOOMIS:  18,615.429   0.57900

total pledged gold:  2,358,833.560oz                                     73.36 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 478.73 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS 50.08 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

 

total registered or dealer  17,749,788.175 oz or 552.09 tonnes
 
 
 
total weight of pledged: 2,358,833.560   oz                                     73.37 tonnes
 
 
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,390,955.0 (478.72 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes15,390,955.0 (478.72 tonnes)   
 
 
total eligible gold: 16,198,605.001 oz   (503.84 tonnes)
 
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  33,948,393.176 oz or 1,055.93 tonnes
 (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  929.59 tonnes

end

 
 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

OCT 6/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//OCT

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1024.548  oz
 
Delaware
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
nil
 OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
 
CONTRACT(S)
0  OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
97 contracts
 485,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1551 contracts

 

7,755,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposits into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

 

 
 
 

JPMorgan now has 183.596 million oz  silver inventory or 51.13% of all official comex silver. (183.596 million/360.640 million

total customer deposits today 0   oz

we had 1 withdrawals

i) Out of Delaware: 1024.548 oz

 

 

total withdrawal   1024.548        oz

 

adjustments: 
0
 
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 99.512 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  360.650 million oz

a net   0.0010 million oz leaves  the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
For October, we have an open interest of 92 contracts for a GAIN OF 5. we had O notices filed upon yesterday so we gained 5 contracts or an additional 25,000 oz will  stand for delivery at the comex 
 
 
 

NOVEMBER LOST 9 TO STAND AT 761  

DEC LOST 940 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 120,373

 
NO. OF NOTICES FILED: 0  FOR NIL OZ.

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1551 x 5,000 oz = 7,755,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (97) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT./2021 contract month: 1551 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT(97)  – number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month .equals 8,240,000 oz. .

We gained 5 contracts or an additional 25,000 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of OCTOBER.

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME 37,554 CONTRACTS // volume awful 

 

FOR YESTERDAY 30,942 contracts  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ poor

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO -3.06% (OCT 6/2021)

SILVER FUND POSITIVE TO NAV

No of oz of physical silver held:  Oct 1/2021   151,927,020 ( a gain of 1.001 MILLION OZ IN TWO MONTHS

no of oz of physical silver held  JULY 8.2021;  150,926,000  (GAIN OF 6.411 MILLION OZ IN 2 MONTHS)

No of oz of physical silver held; MAY 24/2021  144,515,694 OZ

No. of oz of physical silver held:  Sept 20/20: 85,907.3616  Oz

No of oz pf physical silver held: Dec 21/2019:  65,073.570 Oz

During the past 12 months Sprott has added: 66.02 MILLION OZ OCT 4-SEPT 20)

 

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.65% nav   (OCT 6)/2021 )

 

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA)

NAV $17.91 TRADING 17.20//NEGATIVE  3.95

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.49 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.03 TONNES

SPET 30.//WITH GOLD UP $32.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.03 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.70 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.03 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 3.2 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.32 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.52 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD $1.15 DOLLARS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.14 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.65 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY;A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES FOF GOLD INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES/

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.21 TONNES/

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.21 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $12,90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.04 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.21 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 13//WITH GOLD UP $1.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.17 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40//A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD”: A WITHDRAWAL OF .35 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.17

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.52 TONNES/

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.52 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 998.52 TONNES.

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .74 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.52 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.26 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.26 TONNES.

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $5.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES./

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES/

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.79 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.91 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES.

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.63 TONNES

AUGUST 24/ WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A MONSTER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.95 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1006.66 TONNES.

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.25 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.61 TONNES// 

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.49 TONNES FROM THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.61 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.10 TONNES/

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD  DOWN $2.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.10 TONNES/

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.63 TONNES

 
 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

OCT 6 / GLD INVENTORY 986,54 tonnes

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

OCT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.941 MILLION OZ 

OCT 5/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 503,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.941 MILLION OZ

OCT 4/WITH  SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 8.425 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.438 MILLION OZ/

OCT 1/WITH  SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.013 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.013 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY// A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF .509,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.013 MILLION OZ

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.982 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.522 MILLION OZ

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.204 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.504 MILLION OZ

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.708 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 509,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.708 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.217 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.11 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.131MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.735 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 9/ WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 8/WITH SILVE DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.037 MILLION OF FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 977,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.880 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.880 MILLION OZ

 

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 545.878 MILLION OZ////

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ/./

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST24/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLSV: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 MILLION OZ AND THIS IS HEADING FOR SPROTT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.641 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.305 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.946 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.389 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.946 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 18/ WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.131 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.INVENTORY REST AT 553.375 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.466 MILLION OZ.

 
 

OCT 6/2021  SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 549.941 MILLION OZ

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

PETER SCHIFF

Inflation Bites! Rising Prices Are Eating Up Personal Income Gains

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 02:41 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Inflation bites!

Personal income rose again in August, but once again rising prices ate up all the gains and then some.

Economists and pundits talk about inflation as an academic exercise. They rarely reflect on the fact that rising prices have real impacts on real people.

Personal income from all sources rose by 0.2% from July to August. This includes wages, stimulus payments, transfer payments (unemployment, Social Security benefits, etc.) along with income from other sources such as interest, dividends, and rental income, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

But when you factor in inflation, “real” personal income fell by 0.2%. When factoring out government transfer payments, “real” personal income dropped 0.3% and fell below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

So, while Americans saw more money in their wallets, they were able to buy less with those dollars. As WolfStreet put it, “It’s tough getting beaten up by the worst bout of inflation in 30 years.”

The green line represents the pre-pandemic trend.

This is the second month in a row real incomes have dropped.

Many pundits in the mainstream blow off inflation by pointing out that wages rise along with prices. But as this data shows, wages rarely rise at the same pace as prices. That means inflation puts a significant squeeze on the pocketbook, at least in the short term.

Consumers continue to spend as the economy emerges from the pandemic era, but half of the spending increase in August simply reflected rising prices. Overall, spending rose 0.8% month-on-month. But when you factor out inflation, spending was only up 0.4%.

The increase in spending partially reflects Americans returning to work and rising wages with the ongoing labor shortages. But as WolfStreet notes, “consumers are still flush with money from the myriad of pandemic-era fiscal and monetary stimulus, from forgivable PPP loans to stock market gains, and they’re still spending bravely.”

What will happen if the Fed tries to pull back on the monetary stimulus that continues to prop up this borrow and spend economy?

The spending shift from goods to services continued in August. Real spending on durable goods fell 1.3% month-on-month. It was the fifth monthly decline in a row after the stimulus-fueled spending binge on goods in March and April.

Real spending on services rose by 0.3% in August. Even with the increase, it remains far below pre-pandemic levels. Services accounted for about 61% of total spending in August. That compares with 65% of total spending on services pre-pandemic.

The shift in spending from goods to services could pose a problem for Jerome Powell and his “transitory” inflation narrative. If consumers continue to shift spending to services and it begins to approach prepandemic levels, this could provide the next source of inflationary pressure. Services carry more weight in inflation indices. As demand increase and pushes prices higher, it will impact inflation measure even more than the big spike in durable goods earlier this year.

Spending will likely be further skewed as moratoriums on evictions and loan forbearances run out. At the end of last month, 1.6 million mortgages were still in forbearance, along with $1.6 trillion in student loans. As these pandemic programs end, it will mean less money to spend on stuff.

This is a prime example of just how much all of the intervention into the economy by governments and central banks over the last 18 months have distorted the economy. It’s difficult to predict what will happen as these interventions unwind.

end

EGON VON GREYERZ//MATHEW PIEPENBERG/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS

Hidden Bankruptcy: The Reality Behind Uncle Sam’s Inflated Bar Tab

 
TUESDAY, OCT 05, 2021 – 09:25 PM

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

Below, we look at The hidden bankruptcy of the US in the wake of even more inflationary forces confirmed by cost-of-living-adjustments, Uncle Sam’s interest expenses, objectively unloved Treasuries and a roaring as well as convenient COVID narrative.

Math vs. Double-Speak

Given the fact that just about everything coming out of the mouths of debt-cornered policy makers requires a lie-detector and “double-speak” translator, we’ve been arguing since the moment the Fed began peddling the “transitory inflation” meme/myth to think differently.

In short: It’s our view that inflation is a snowball growing, not melting.

Toward this end, we’ve written and spoken at length as often as we can as to the many converging forces pointing toward rising inflation—from increased governmental guarantees (controls) over commercial bank loans, commodity super cycles to just plain economic realism, as inflation (and hence currency debasement) is the only tool left (beyond bankruptcy, taxation and “growth”) to service otherwise unsustainable debt levels: A hidden bankruptcy.

But let us not stop there, as other inflationary storm clouds are on the horizon yet ignored (not surprisingly) by an increasingly clueless financial media.

Another Glaringly-Ignored Inflation Indicator—COLA 2.2022

In particular, we are thinking about the U.S. Cost of Living Adjustment (“COLA”) for 2022 which could easily reach 6%, the highest of its kind since 1982.

It would seem that the U.S. Social Security Administration, unlike Powell, is aware of inflation, and therefore preparing (i.e., “adjusting”) for the same.

As the price for entitlement obligations rises, so too will the level of money printing to pay for the same, a veritable vicious circle for rising inflation.

Then there’s simple math.

We’ve talked about the Realpolitik of negative real rates as the final and desperate way for debt-soaked sovereigns to service their debt.

The signs of this are literally everywhere.

If we take, for example, a 1.4% Treasury Yield and subtract a potential 6% COLA increase for Social Security, we get -4.6% real rates, which will be a boon for alternative stores of value like gold and silver or “currencies” like BTC (as well as farmland and high-end real estate, which is continuing to enjoy a debt-jubilee of negative 3% real (i.e., “free” mortgages).

The necessary evil of negative real rates also speaks to the ongoing taper debate…

Giving Clarity to the Taper Debate

As tweets by twits pour across the electronic universe, it’s often important to notice what is not being “tweeted,” such as the interest expense on Uncle Sam’s national bar tab.

As the financial world hangs on the edge of its seat to see if the Fed will taper its QE (i.e., money printing) program and send bonds (and stocks) to the floor and rates toward the sky, they’ve ignored some basic math and a key chart.

Specifically, we are referring to the chart below representing the true interest expense on the debt bar-tab of a now fully debt-intoxicated Uncle Sam:

With central-bank “accommodated” asset bubbles (from stocks to real estate to art) now at historically unprecedented levels, tax receipts flowing into the U.S. coffers from the ever-growing millionaire-to-billionaire class have been rising.

This may seem good for that punch-drunk Uncle Sam, but what no one is talking about is that despite even those “capital gain” receipts, the interest expense (i.e., “bar tab”) in D.C. is now an astronomical 111% of those same tax receipts.

In other words, U.S. tax income doesn’t come close to even paying interest (let alone that archaic concept known as “principal”) on growing U.S. debt obligations.

Can anyone say, “Uh-oh?”

Given the stark but ignored reality of unpayable U.S. debt, the implications going forward are fairly clear.

First, the Fed will not be able to “taper,” as less QE will mean an even higher interest rate, and thus higher interest expense on debt it still can’t pay at today’s artificially low rates.

Stated otherwise, a “taper” would only add helicopters of gasoline to a debt fire that is already burning the Divided States of America.

Given the dangers of such a taper, it likely won’t happen because it can’t happen, and this means more money printing and hence more negative real rates creating a hidden bankruptcy ahead, a weaker USD and rising precious metal prices, among others.

But What If the Fed Tapers?

Alternatively, should the Fed somehow turn hawkish and taper its QE support in the face of a debt forest fire, Treasuries will sell off dramatically, rates will rise, markets will tank, and the USD will surge—not good forGold, BTC or just about anything else.

Does it Matter?

But as we’ve also tried to make crystal clear, there is no way the Fed will taper QE liquidity before it sets up a back-channel for even more liquidity from the Standing Repo Facility, Reverse Repo Facility and FIMA swap lines, which are all just “QE” by other names.

In simple speak, therefore, the “taper debate” is no debate, as the Fed has many liquidity tricks up its greasy sleeves.

In addition to liquidity tricks, the Fed has some ugly bonds to buy.

Embarrassing Treasuries

As we’ve said so many times, the biggest issue today is unsustainable and embarrassing debt levels requiring inflation (hidden bankruptcy), compliments of policy makers rather than a viral pandemic narrative out of all proportion to its confused scientific truths.

COVID has been an all-too timely and convenient pretext for blaming global debt ($300T) or U.S. public debt ($28.5T) on a flu rather than a sordid history of grotesque mismanagement from politico’s and bankers that was in play long before the first headlines out of Wuhan.

Furthermore, COVID monetary and fiscal policy measures effectively became a (hidden) pretext for a second market bailout greater in scope (yet better in optics) than the post-Lehman bailout of those otherwise Too Big to Fail banks.

In short, the façade (and branding) of a humanitarian crisis allowed a market-saving liquidity rescue (Bailout 2.0) to an otherwise Dead-on-Arrival bond market in late 2019.

In case this sounds too controversial to consider, please follow the Treasury market rather than our bemused nouns and adjectives, not to mention our total lack of scientific/medical credentials.

Bad IOUs

Just like friends don’t accept IOUs from drug addicts, global investors heading into 2020 stopped buying Uncle Sam’s Treasuries.

In simple-speak, Uncle Sam just seemed too debt-drunk to trust.

As a result, his Treasury bonds, once seen as “safe havens,” were finally seen as “bad jokes”—akin to the paper coming out of equally discredited zip codes like Greece, Italy or Spain.

For this reason, foreigners in a nervous 2020 (unlike a broken 2009) had not only stopped buying U.S. Treasuries, they were selling them.

Yep.

Months ago, smart voices from the Street, including Stan Druckenmiller, were warning about the implications of such a shift in financial consciousness/trust.

Druckenmiller’s Astonishment

Specifically, Druckenmiller spoke of something he’d never seen in over 40 years as a market veteran.

That is, as stocks were tanking in the spring of 2020, he also saw the bond market lose 18 points in one day.

This correlated fall in stocks and bonds was not, as everyone “tweeted,” a reaction to the fiscal profligacy of the CARES Act, but more sadly a very new trend by foreigners to get rid of increasingly discredited U.S. IOUs.

Folks, this is a critical shift.

For over two decades (including during the Great Financial Crisis of 2009), U.S. Treasuries (and the USD) were once seen as “safe” landing places for foreign money rather than a risky bet.

Now, instead of seeing an annual average $500B inflow into U.S. bonds, we are seeing annual outflows of $500B…

When you tack on a $700B current account deficit in D.C. to a net loss of $1 trillion in Treasury support, whose left to “fill the gap” and buy those unwanted IOU’s?

You guessed it: The Fed.

And how will they come up the money to cover these purchases?

You guessed it again: They’ll mouse-click that “money” out of thin air to create a stealthy, hidden bankruptcy.

Needless to say, such realism (i.e., objective math) puts a lot of pressure on the U.S. Dollar as the Fed is forced to create even more money at a record pace to buy otherwise unwanted Treasuries.

But what kept the USD from falling in favor by end of 2020, if no one was buying our bonds but the Fed?

Well, the short answer is that all that foreign money (from sovereign wealth funds and foreign central banks) once ear-marked for our once-credible U.S. Treasury bonds went instead into those massive U.S. digital transformation companies who benefited most from a locked-down new mad world, namely GOOG, ZOOM and MSFT etc.

And how did Druckenmiller describe this shift?

Simple. He called it a “raging new mania.”

From Mania to Desperate

Foreign money once reserved for “safe haven” bonds was (and is) pouring into an already over-sized equity bubble.

By July, the USD had peaked, but after a peak comes, well…a fall for the Greenback—all very good for commodities, real estate, growth tech stocks and, of course, precious metals.

Back to the “What If” of a Naked Taper

But (and this is a very big “but”), what if the Fed were insane enough to taper QE without any back-door liquidity from foreign swap lines and the repo programs?

Again, ugly Treasuries would get even uglier, tank in price, sending rates and the USD higher and gold lower, along with a sharp sell-off in risk assets—i.e., corporate stocks and bonds.

But again, we don’t think this will happen, because as desperate as central bankers are, they are equally predictable.

Predictable Behavior?

That is, they know that such a naked taper (i.e., a taper without a back door repo or swap-induced liquidity) would cause rates to spike, and hence Uncle Sam’s bar-tab to default.

As the Fed’s Vice Chair intimated last year, US Treasuries (Uncle Sam’s bar tab) are simply too big to fail.

This means we can expect more liquidity (QE or repo/swap) and hence more, not less inflation.

The Fed is stuck in a self-inflicted dilemma–between letting inflation rip (to partially service America’s bar tab and “declaring” a hidden bankruptcy) or watching markets sink to the bottom of time.

For now, which choice do you think these banking, pro-market cabal thinkers will make?

The Realpolitik of COVID

Meanwhile, and regardless of one’s views on the vaccine mandates, case fatality rates vs. infection rates, or mask wearing vs. mask annoyance, no one needs our amateur medical advice.

But looking at COVID as a policy tool rather than as controversial health issue, it’s also fairly clear that the powers that be will be milking this fear-porn-to-policy trick for all its worth for as long as its worth.

Why?

Again, COVID is a wonderful narrative to justify more debt and more instant liquidity (i.e., fiat monetary expansion) and hence more inflation to inflate away the debt of debt-drunk nations already fatally in debt pre-COVID.

Rightly or wrongly, there are already scientists out of the UK (namely Oxford vaccine creator Sarah Gilbert) with more IQ-power and credibility than Fauci or Fergusson (admittedly not a high bar), who are already signaling that COVID will resemble little more than a common cold by next year.

This, if true (and no one really knows anyway), would be good for the world—but would the policy makers like this?

A post-COVID normal would be a boon to commerce and economic activity, and hence a boon to the velocity of money, which would kick inflation into ultra-high-gear.

High inflation will mean higher rates, which scare debt-soaked politicians and central bankers, unless inflation rises higher than those rates and negative real yields become the norm, which, again, we think is the realistic (i.e., only option) for these financial magicians running our governments, lives and central banks.

In such a scenario, gold will smile upon the inflation to come.

In short, and however we look at it, inflation is the new norm, and negative real rates are no less so, regardless of how the taper or COVID debate plays out.

As the future unfolds, gold, whose price is waiting for confirmation of such inflation, will only grow stronger as the “transitory” meme gets weaker by the day.

OR LAWRIE WILLIAMS

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold and silver

-END-

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Ahead of the BLSBS

 

 

 Section: Daily Dispatches

 

4:30p ET Tuesday, October 5, 2021

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, writing today at Sprott Money, muses about what the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will contrive Friday in its new jobs report and whether the report will cause the Federal Reserve to start reducing its bond purchases.

In any case, Hemke adds, the prices of gold and silver have a long way to recover before generating any investor enthusiasm for the prospects of the monetary metals.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Ahead of the BLSBS” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Ahead-of-the-BLSBS-Craig-Hemke-October-05-2021

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES

Good luck to Poland if they can get it

(zerohedge)

Poland Central Bank To Buy 100 Tons Of Gold In 2022

 
TUESDAY, OCT 05, 2021 – 09:45 PM

In a time when institutions are increasingly shifting away from fiat currency and looking toward cryptos, it is worth recalling that at least when it comes to central banks, there is no digital gold. There is just gold.

To be sure, in a time of unprecedented economic and social turmoil, central bankers’ appetite for gold continues to grow, providing a bright spot for the traditional haven as investor interest ebbs. According to the World Gold Council, global reserves expanded 333.2 tons in the first half of 2021, 39% higher than the five-year average for the period. Strong purchases by Thailand, Hungary and Brazil stood out, with WGC analyst Louise Street predicting that If central banks continue to buy at the levels seen recently, it will provide a supportive element for the market.

Alas, the past year has not been kind to gold and after rising above $2000 during the hyper-print phase of the covid pandemic, gold has steadily declined to the mid $1700s as a global surge in inflation has forced central banks to restart monetary tightening.

However, for at least one central bank gold’s continued decline is welcome news, because according to Poland’s Gazeta Wroclawska, Governor Adam Glapinski – the head of the country’s central bank, the National Bank of Poland – plans to increase gold reserves by 100 tons next year to strengthen country’s financial stability.

In the interview, Glapinski said his plan may take effect when he will be re- elected as Governor as his current term ends in mid-2022. However, in the same interview, the governor also said he plans to introduce 1,000 zloty banknote, an indication that the gold may be coming only to offset even more money printing down the line.

No matter his intentions, however, Glapinski has been good for Poland’s gold reserves: during his term, the amount of gold in reserves has more than doubled to 229 metric tons.

end
 
CRYPTOCURRENCIES/

Cryptos Are Suddenly Exploding Higher

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 09:18 AM

While we do not see any obvious catalyst, cryptocurrencies are exploding higher this morning as the squeezes spread from energy to stocks to bonds to bitcoin…

Bitcoin just spiked to $55,500…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum is also surging…

Source: Bloomberg

As one veteran trader mocked – is Europe about to announce the use of Bitcoin mining rigs to heat its citizens’ homes given the cost of NatGas?

Developing…

 
 
end
 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs usa dollar/CLOSED  

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN 6.4695  /shanghai bourse CLOSED 

 

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 137.66 PTS OR 0.57% 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 295.25 PTS OR 1.059%  

 

3. Europe stocks  ALL RED

 

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  94.37/Euro FALLS TO 1.1540

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.085/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.41/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 78.58 and Brent: 81.99

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED XX//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.164%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 0.91% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 0.49%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.07: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 0.918

3k Gold at $1754.85 silver at: 22.34   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 26/100 in roubles/dollar) 72.58

3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and  81 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.41 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9293 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0726 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to 0.164%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.551% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.113%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 8.92..  VERY DEADLY

Futures Tumble As Nat Gas Prices Explode, Stagflation Fears Surge

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 08:07 AM

In our market comments on Tuesday we were stunned by the resilient surge in tech names and the broader market, even as yields soared on the biggest jump in breakevens since the presidential election, noting that something is very broken with this picture. Well, one day later normalcy is back: US stock index futures tumbled as much as 1.3% on Wednesday before paring some losses, after soaring oil and gas prices (rising as much as 40% in Europe today alone) fed into fears of higher inflation and fueled concerns of sooner-than-expected tapering, which in turn pushed 10Y yields just shy of 1.57%. At 730 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 309 points, or 0.9%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 49 points, or 1.12%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 181 points, or 1.23%, to the lowest level since June 25 on a closing basis, signaling more downside for tech shares after Tuesday’s short reprieve

Up to Tuesday’s close, the S&P 500 index logged its fourth straight day of 1% moves in either direction. According to Reuters, the last time the index saw that much volatility was in November 2020, when it rose or fell 1% or more for seven straight sessions.

The selloff was much more severe in Europe, with the Stoxx 600 falling as much as 2% to a 2 month low, with every industry sector firmly in the red as the region’s natural gas prices soared to catastrophic levels…

… even as the European Union pledged swift action to ensure the spiking costs don’t stifle the economy (it just didn’t explain precisely what it would do). Asian stocks also dropped amid continued China property contagion fears. The 10-year TSY yield touched their highest since June, slamming shares of mega-cap FAAMGs; tech shares led the stocks selloff Apple (AAPL US -1.5%), Facebook (FB US -1.6%), Microsoft (MSFT US -1.6%), Tesla (TSLA US -1.4%) down in U.S. premarket trading.

Economy-sensitive parts of the market also came under pressure, with lenders such as Bank of America Corp , JPMorgan Chase & Co and Morgan Stanley shedding more than 1% each. Boeing and industrial conglomerates Caterpillar Inc and 3M Co dropped between 0.8% and 2.0%. Ironically, even though Brent remained well above $82, energy names also slumped with Exxon sliding 1% on what appears to be profit taking to plug margin holes elsewhere. American Airlines’ shares fell 3.7% in U.S. premarket session after Goldman cut its recommendation for the stock to sell. Meanwhile, Palantir Technologies extended its gains to rise 9.3% as the company said it won a U.S. Army contract to supply data and analytics services. Here are some of the other notable market movers:

  • Gogo (GOGO US) drops 5.3% in U.S. premarket trading after Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight, with competitive landscape expected to pressure valuation and free cash flow over coming year
  • American Airlines (AAL US) slides 3.6% in U.S. premarket trading on Goldman Sachs downgrade, according to Bloomberg data
  • U.S. Steel (X US) down more than 5% in U.S. premarket trading on Goldman Sachs downgrade, according to Bloomberg data
  • Calyxt (CLXT US) shares jump 5.4% premarket after the company said it will focus on engineering synthetic biology solutions for customers across the nutraceutical, cosmeceutical, pharmaceutical, advanced materials, and chemical industries
  • Indus Realty Trust (INDT US) fell postmarket Tuesday after launching a 2 million stock offering
  • Noodles & Co. (NDLS US) shares rose 2% in Tuesday postmarket trading after Stephens started coverage with an overweight rating, saying the restaurant chain is poised for strong growth that should lead to higher multiples
  • Allison Transmission (ALSN US) is accelerating the development of electrification technology for integration into the U.S. Army’s ground combat vehicle fleet
  • Palantir (PLTR US) shares rise 14% in U.S. premarket trading after the the software company said Tuesday it was selected by the U.S. Army to provide data and analytics for the Capability Drop 2 program

“Right now you’re seeing inflation risk really start to percolate and I do think that you’re going to see that really eat into margins as we go through the fourth quarter into 2022,” Erin Browne, multi-asset portfolio manager at Pimco, said on Bloomberg Television. “The energy crisis that’s starting to loom in Europe is a real risk that is being underestimated by the market right now.”

“The spike in energy prices continue fueling expectations of higher inflation for longer. Therefore, central banks will be forced to cool down the overheating in inflation rather than trying to boost recovery,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. “Any weakness in the jobs figure could send the U.S. equities back below their 100-dma levels, as soft economic data could no longer revive the central bank doves.”

As such, all eyes will be on the U.S. private payrolls data, due at 8:15 a.m. ET. The numbers come ahead of the more comprehensive non-farm payrolls data on Friday, which is expected to cement the case for the Federal Reserve’s slowing of asset purchases. Meanwhile, a stalemate over Republicans and Democrats about the debt limit showed no sign of abating, with President Joe Biden saying that his Democrats might make an exception to a U.S. Senate rule to allow them to extend the government’s borrowing authority without Republican help.

European stocks fell even more, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index plunging 2% to lowest since July 20; Travel, autos and retail names are the weakest sectors although all Stoxx 600 sub-indexes are off at least 1%, tech was also underperforming. As noted above, gas prices remain a focal pressure point with several measures hitting record levels. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Adler shares extend decline to 21% in Frankfurt after Viceroy Research publishes a report saying it is short Adler Group SA and its listed subsidiaries.
  • Deutsche Telekom shares fall 4%, close to the level at which Goldman Sachs offered about EU1.5b worth of shares, as part of a deal to swap some of Softbank’s T- Mobile stake for one in Deutsche Telekom.
  • Ambu shares fall as much as 8.1%, most since Aug. 17, after company cut its FY financial outlook.
  • IP Group shares drop as much as 8.1%, their worst day in nine months, after CEO Alan Aubrey and CIO Mike Townend retire.
  • GN Store Nord shares rise as much as 7.5% as it agrees to buy SteelSeries, a maker of software-enabled gaming gear, from Nordic private equity company Axcel for an enterprise value of DKK8b on a cash and debt-free basis.
  • Tesco shares rise as much as 4.6% to an eight-month high after Britain’s biggest supermarket operator said it will buy back GBP500m of stock and raised its FY profit forecast.
  • HSBC rises as much 2.5% as UBS upgrades the Asia-focused lender to buy from neutral, saying the market is taking a risk by being underweight.
  • PageGroup shares jump as much as 6.9%, most since April, as the staffing firm boosts its profit forecast. Peer Hays also gains.
  • Dustin shares jump as much as 11%, most since April 13, after the IT solutions provider’s Ebit for the fourth quarter beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Atlantic Sapphire gains as much as 15% as Pareto sees improvements ahead.

Asian stocks headed for their longest losing streak since August as a selloff in the heavyweight tech sector deepened amid rising Treasury yields. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.8%, in its fourth day of decline, with Samsung and Tencent among the biggest drags. A benchmark tracking Chinese technology stocks in Hong Kong closed at a record low. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi were the biggest losers, sliding more than 1% each. China Tech Stock Gauge Falls to Test Record Low as Yields Rise Investors have yet to digest issues such as the inflation outlook, among other concerns including gridlock over the U.S. debt ceiling and higher global energy prices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is approaching year-to-date lows seen in August.  “At the moment, given all the uncertainties regarding the growth, inflation and policy outlooks, we are still in the middle of the tempest, so to speak,” Kyle Rodda, an analyst at IG Markets, said by email.  Indonesian, Malaysian and Philippine stock benchmarks were among the region’s best performers.

In Japan, the Topix closed 0.3% lower while the Nikkei225 capped its worst daily losing streak since July 2009 and entered a technical correction, as Japanese equities tumbled while Treasury yields climbed.

Fast Retailing Co. and Tokyo Electron Ltd. were the largest contributors to a 1.1% loss in the Nikkei 225, which fell for an eighth-straight day. The gauge, which had risen as much as 1.4% earlier in the day, closed more than 10% down from its September high. The broader Topix dipped 0.3%, erasing an early 1.6% advance, driven by losses in automakers. Banks climbed on the spike in Treasury yields. Japanese stocks had opened the day higher, following a rebound in U.S. shares. Both major gauges fell for a seventh day Tuesday amid market disappointment with the new government and a host of threats to global economic growth. ‘Kishida Shock’ Hits Japan Markets Wary of Redistribution Plan “Technicals such as RSI and Bollinger are showing that these moves may have been overdone in the short term, but Japan is hostage to the continued global concerns regarding inflation, supply chains and Chinese credit along with PM Kishida’s ‘new capitalism’ concept,” said Takeo Kamai, head of execution services at CLSA Securities Japan Co

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.6% to close at 7,206.50, reversing an earlier advance of as much as 0.4%. Banks contributed the most to the benchmark’s decline after Australia’s banking regulator raised loan buffers in a bid to cool the nation’s booming housing market. a2 Milk was the worst performer after a class action lawsuit was filed against the company. Whitehaven was the top performer, rising for a fourth straight day.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.3% to 13,166.44. The nation’s central bank raised interest rates for the first time in seven years and signaled further increases will likely be needed to tame inflation. The RBNZ lifted the official cash rate by a quarter percentage point to 0.5%.

In rates, Treasuries were off their worst levels of the day after the 10Y yield rose briefly topped 1.57%, and remained cheaper by more than 2bps across long-end. The 10-year yield was around 1.55%, cheapest since June 17; U.K. 10-year cheapens by further 1.8bp vs U.S., German 10-year by 0.5bp.

In the U.K., the 10-year breakeven rate climbed above 4%, twice the Bank of England’s target, spurred by soaring energy costs. Money markets have almost fully priced a rate hike as soon as December, in what would be the central bank’s first increase in over three years. Peripheral spreads widen to core with long-dated BTPs widening ~3bps to Germany.

In FX, USD is well bid with risk assets trading poorly. Bloomberg dollar index rises 0.5%, pushing through last Friday’s highs. NZD, NOK and AUD are the weakest in G-10. Crude futures trade a narrow range near Asia’s opening levels. WTI is down 0.4% near $78.60, Brent briefly trades above $83 before dipping into the red. Spot gold extends Asia’s weakness to print fresh lows for the week near $1,745/oz. Base metals are in the red. LME copper the worst performer, dropping 1.9% to trade near the $9k mark.

In commodities, crude futures trade a narrow range near Asia’s opening levels. WTI is down 0.4% near $78.60, Brent briefly trades above $83 before dipping into the red. Spot gold extends Asia’s weakness to print fresh lows for the week near $1,745/oz. Base metals are in the red. LME copper the worst performer, dropping 1.9% to trade near the $9k mark

Elsewhere, Bitcoin traded around the $51,000 mark.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include German factory orders for August, the German and UK construction PMIs for September, Euro Area retail sales for August, and the ADP’s September report on private payrolls from the US. From central banks, we’ll also hear from the ECB’s Centeno.

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.9% to 4,294.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.5% to 449.34
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 191.25
  • MXAPJ down 0.8% to 622.40
  • Nikkei down 1.1% to 27,528.87
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,941.91
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 23,966.49
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,568.17
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 59,596.78
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,206.55
  • Kospi down 1.8% to 2,908.31
  • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $82.67/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.7% to $1,747.69
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.32% to 94.28
  • German 10Y yield up 2 bps to -0.168%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1560

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Boris Johnson’s insistence that higher pay for U.K. workers is worth the pain of supply chain turmoil is generating buzz among Conservative Party members that he’s planning to raise the minimum wage in a keynote speech on Wednesday
  • European energy prices extend their blistering rally as the supply crunch shows no sign of easing and the European Union pledged a quick response to keep the crisis from damaging the economy
  • Chinese Fantasia Holdings Group Co., which develops high-end apartments and urban renewal projects, failed to repay a $205.7 million bond that came due Monday. That prompted a flurry of rating downgrades late Tuesday to levels signifying default. The stumble stirred broader angst in volatile markets amid public holidays in China and uncertainty about Evergrande
  • President Emmanuel Macron nominated Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau for a second term, opting for stability in one of the most important appointment decisions on European Central Bank policy making for years to come
  • The German Green Party is seeking to start exploratory talks with the SPD and liberal FDP party on forming a governing coalition, Green Party co-leader Annalena Baerbock said
  • Saudi Arabia reduced oil prices for its main buyers, a day after OPEC+ sent crude futures surging by sticking to a plan for slow and steady supply increases

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk:

Asia-Pac bourses traded mostly lower after failing to sustain the initial momentum from Wall St, where all major indices gained as investors bought back into tech and with sentiment helped by better-than-expected ISM services PMI, while continued upside in oil prices and a higher yield environment also underpinned energy and financials. This initially lifted the overnight benchmark indices although gains in the ASX 200 (-0.6%) were later reversed as the strength in energy and tech was overshadowed by weakness in the broader market including underperformance in the top-weighted financials sector after the regulator announced a loan curb measure targeting mortgage lending. Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) faded its opening gains and brief foray into 28k territory with auto names among the laggards amid ongoing production disruptions and with PM Kishida’s new cabinet beginning on shaky ground as polls showed his approval rating was at just 55% heading into the upcoming election, which was also the lowest for a new leader in 13 years, while KOSPI (-1.8%) gave up initial spoils with firmer than expected CPI data supporting the case for another hike by the BoK this year. Hang Seng (-0.6%) conformed to the soured mood amid weakness in property and biotech with participants also focusing on Chief Executive Lam’s final policy address of her current term where she proposed measures to address the housing issue, although this failed to lift the property sector as Evergrande concerns lingered after Hong Kong property agencies sued the Co. to recover overdue commissions and with shares in its New Energy Vehicle unit suffering double-digit percentage losses. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower on spillover selling from T-notes and despite the downturn in stocks, while the absence of BoJ purchases in the market today added to the lacklustre demand with the central bank instead offering to buy JPY 125bln in corporate bonds from October 11th with 1yr-3yr maturities.

Top Asian News

  • China Tech Stock Gauge Falls to Record Low as Yields Rise
  • Top Glove Says Cooperating in Investigation Over Worker’s Death
  • China Resources Unit Said to Be in Talks for JLL China Business
  • Asian Stocks Drop as Tech Selloff Deepens Amid Rising Yields

Stocks in Europe have extended on the losses seen at the cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 -2.4%; Stoxx 600 -1.8%) with risk aversion intensifying from a downbeat APAC session as markets grapple with the prospect of stagflation, the energy crunch, Evergrande woes, and geopolitics. US equity futures have conformed to the losses across stocks with the ES (-1.3%) RTY (-1.5%), NQ (-1.5%) and YM (-1.0%) all softer, whilst the former two dipped under 4,300 and 2,200 respectively. From a news-flow standpoint, fresh catalysts have been light. Euro-bouses see broad-based losses whilst the FTSE 100 (-1.6%) is somewhat cushioned (albeit under 7k) by a softer sterling alongside some heavyweight individual stocks including HSBC (+3.3%) following a broker move, and Tesco (+4.5%) after topping H1 forecasts, raised guidance and a GBP 500mln share buyback scheme. Sectors in Europe are all in the red. Banks are the best of the bunch amid the favourable yield environment. On this note, SocGen suggested that the banking sector should benefit from the rise in yields and limited exposure to China, higher energy and supply-chain bottlenecks, while that market consolidation offers some opportunities in the European tech and industrial sectors. Back to sectors, the downside sees some of the more cyclical sectors including Travel & Leisure and Auto names. In terms of some individual movers, Deutsche Telekom (-5.6%) is hit after a bookrunner noted a share offering of some 90mln shares priced at a discount to yesterday’s close.

Top European News

  • German Greens Seek Talks With SPD, FDP on Post-Merkel Government
  • European Industry Buckles Under a Worsening Energy Squeeze
  • Polish Central Bank Unbowed Despite Price Spike: Decision Guide
  • Bayer Shares Turn Lower After Initial Gains on Roundup Win

In FX, the Dollar is firmly back in the driving seat and the index is eyeing YTD highs having reclaimed 94.000+ status amidst another sharp downturn in risk appetite just a day after what some pundits were dubbing as a ‘turnaround Tuesday’. Instead, Asia-Pacific bourses were reluctant to pick up the baton from Wall Street and the failure to keep the ball rolling against the backdrop of ongoing strength in gas and oil prices has rattled EU equities to the extent that the Dax has lost grip of the 15k handle and FTSE is down below 7k regardless of the fact that the UK benchmark has some positive impulses beyond the obvious revenue implications for the energy sector. Back to the DXY 94.448 is the best so far ahead of 94.500 for sentimental reasons and the current y-t-d peak just a fraction above at 94.504. In terms of fundamentals, next up for the Greenback is ADP as one of the usual pointers for NFP, while Fed speak comes from Bostic who is down to talk twice today.

  • NZD/AUD – Ironically perhaps, the Kiwi is underperforming even though the RBNZ matched market expectations with a 25 bp OCR hike overnight, and this could well be described as a classic ‘buy rumour, sell fact’ reaction given that the move was all priced in. Moreover, the accompanying statement has not altered expectations for further measured tightening and this could compound the inclination to re-position/take profit/cut longs to the detriment of the Nzd. Indeed, the Kiwi has retreated from around 0.6980 vs its US rival to circa 0.6878 and is struggling to tread water on the 1.0500 mark against the Aussie that is also losing out to its US rival on the aforementioned risk dynamic, as Aud/Usd hovers towards the bottom end of 0.7295-0.7227 parameters ahead of AIG’s services sector index.
  • CAD/GBP – Also somewhat perverse, though a measure of the degree that the market mood has changed since yesterday, the Loonie and Sterling are both struggling to derive much from the latest advances in WTI or Brent. In fact, Usd/Cad approached 1.2650 having breached the 50 DMA (1.2626) and pulling away from a cluster of decent option expiries that start at 1.2520-25 (1 bn) and continue through 1.2550-60 (2.1 bn) to 1.2600 (1 bn) and end between 1.2720-30 (1.5 bn, while Cable has reversed through 1.3600 and the 10 DMA (1.3592) with little assistance from a sub-consensus UK construction PMI.
  • EUR/CHF/JPY – All unable to escape the Buck’s clutches, with the Euro down to a minor new 2021 low and probing barriers at 1.1550, while the Franc is treading water around 0.9300 and the Yen is thriving to keep tabs on 111.50 due to its renowned safe-haven properties, and with the prop of JGB yields reaching multi-month peaks, albeit in catch-up trade with US Treasuries and other global bonds.
  • SCANDI/EM – Little solace for the Nok via Brent almost touching Usd 83.50/brl at one stage, though it is holding a firm line following its ascent beyond 10.0000 vs the Eur, while the Sek has largely taken mixed Swedish data and Riksbank rhetoric from Skingsley in stride (caution warranted and now is not the time to change monetary policy), but EM currencies are all floundering with the Try sliding to yet another record trough and on course to hit 9.0000. Ahead, the Zar will be looking for something supportive from SARB Governor Kganyago via a webinar on the economy, jobs and growth.
  • RBNZ hiked the OCR by 25bps to 0.50% as expected and the committee noted further removal of monetary policy stimulus is expected over time. RBNZ added that it is appropriate to continue reducing the level of stimulus and that future moves are contingent on the medium term outlook for inflation and employment, while policy stimulus will need to be reduced to maintain price stability and maximum sustainable employment over the medium term. Furthermore, it noted that cost pressures are becoming more persistent and capacity pressures are still evident, but added that demand shortfalls are less of an issue than the economy hitting capacity constraints and that economic activity will rebound quickly as alert level restrictions ease. (Newswires)

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are choppy in early European trade with a downside bias amid the risk tone, but ultimately, prices remain near recent highs with the WTI Nov contract north of USD 78.50/bbl (78.25-79.78/bbl) and Brent Dec around 82/bbl (vs USD 81.92-83.47/bbl range) at the time of writing. Nat gas has once again been the focus in the energy complex, with the UK Nat Gas future surging some 40% intraday at one point, although its US counterpart has lost some steam. A lot of attention has been the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to alleviate some of the supply/demand imbalances in the gas market heading into the winter period. Yesterday, an EU lawmaker suggested that the pipeline does not comply with EU rules, although an EU court adviser noted that Nord Stream 2 could challenge the energy rule and the decision is not final. European natural gas futures climbed to a fresh all-time high. Back to crude, it’s worth being cognizant of the underlying demand that could be fed via the higher gas prices as other energy sources are more sought after, including diesel generators for electricity usually produced by Nat Gas. Over to metals, spot gold and silver are pressured by the firmer Buck with the former back under USD 1,750/oz and at session lows at the time of writing. The downbeat tone has also taken a toll on the base metals complex, with LME copper again dipping below the USD 9,000/t from a USD 9,135/t intraday peak.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -1.1%
  • 8:15am: Sept. ADP Employment Change, est. 430,000, prior 374,000

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Risk appetite returned to markets yesterday, but not without some astonishing moves in commodities and inflation markets alongside a selloff in bonds. On top of that, we also had a fresh round of signals that supply-chain issues and inflation were beginning to have real economic impacts, thanks to the global September PMI readings.

The most eye catching stat of the last 24 hours is probably that the UK’s index linked bonds are now implying that the April 2022 YoY UK RPI print will be c.7%. Thanks to DB’s Sanjay Raja for pointing this out to me. That’s the point in time where Ofgem next updates its price cap for utility bills.

This comes after further astonishing moves in natural gas. In the UK, gas prices were up +19.54%, marking the biggest daily percentage increase in over a year and a +183.3% move since the start of August. 10 year UK breakevens closed at an incredible 3.979% (+9.6bps on the day). To be fair this is based on RPI not the CPI that other index linked markets are. As of early next year the UK is moving to a CPI-H benchmark so these numbers will come down but it’s still an astonishing reflection on expectations for 10-year average inflation numbers.

Benchmark European natural gas futures weren’t much different and were up by +20.04% to a record €116.02 per megawatt hour. That’s also the biggest daily percentage increase in over a year, and the absolute increase of €19.37 is actually more than the level at which natural gas was trading as recently as Q1 this year! That leaves natural gas prices up more than six-fold since the start of the year, and up more than three-fold since the start of July. In comparison the US gas future was “only” up +9.20%, but still reached its highest closing level since December 2008. And oil itself saw another round of gains, with Brent Crude (+1.60%) rising to its highest in almost 3 years, at $82.56/bbl, whilst WTI was up +1.69% to $78.93/bbl, its highest since 2014.

This fresh round of price surges has led to another spike in inflation expectations across multiple countries even in 10 year markets, so way beyond the transitory stage. We’ve already highlighted the UK number but the 10yr German breakeven (+7.6bps) saw its biggest daily increase in nearly a year, hitting a fresh 8-year high of 1.796%. Its Italian counterpart (+8.3bps) hit a new high for the decade at 1.715%. Even in the US, where breakevens have been trading in a fairly tight band recently, we saw a +6.8bps rise to 2.460%, which is its highest closing level in 4 months.

With breakevens moving sharply higher, this was clearly bad news for sovereign bonds, which sold off on both sides of the Atlantic across different maturities. Yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +4.7bps to 1.53%, with the entirety of that move resulting from higher inflation expectations rather than real rates, which actually fell on the day (-2.0bps). Over in Europe, gilts saw the biggest declines as investors continue to anticipate a potential BoE rate hike in the coming months, with 10yr yields rising by a further +7.3bps, whilst the spread of UK 10yr yields over bunds actually widened to its biggest level since the day of the Brexit referendum in 2016. That said, yields were also moving higher on the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (+2.6bps), OATs (+2.5bps) and BTPs (+3.0bps) all moving to their highest level in 3 months.

The case for inflation was given further support by the September PMI releases, which pointed to supply-chain issues across multiple countries. In the Euro Area, the composite PMI was revised up a tenth to 56.2, but the release said that input prices were rising at the joint-fastest on record. Over in the US, the composite PMI was also revised up half a point from the flash reading to 55.0, but the release similarly mentioned labour shortages and capacity constraints holding back growth. The US composite PMI of 55.0 was its lowest level in a year, albeit still above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction. The September US ISM services reading rose 0.2 to 61.9 (59.9 expected) with the report suggesting that delta variant concerns are easing as 17 of the 18 industries reported growth over the last month. However, there were still comments in the report highlighting supply chain issues and some inability to retain or hire labour.

In spite of the renewed inflation concerns clouding the Q4 outlook, the major equity indices managed to post a decent rebound from Monday’s losses, although it’s worth noting that many were only recouping those declines rather than advancing to new heights. The S&P 500 was up +1.05%, so still just beneath where it started the week after Monday’s -1.30% decline, whilst the NASDAQ was up +1.25% and the FANG+ recovered +2.23%. It was the 4th straight day that the S&P 500 moved more than 1% in either direction, the longest such streak since November 2020. While yesterday saw a broad-based rally with 21 of the 24 S&P 500 industries gaining, financials were the big outperformer thanks to higher yields. The US Financials sectors added +1.78%, whilst in Europe the STOXX Banks index (+3.99%) hit a post-pandemic high, well outpacing the broader STOXX 600 (+1.17%).

Overnight in Asia, most markets continued to slide with the Nikkei (-1.00%), Kospi (-1.00%), Hang Seng (-0.71%) and Australia’s ASX (-0.68%) all moving lower on the back of higher energy prices and inflation concerns. In Japan the Nikkei extended losses for an eighth consecutive session on concerns that new PM Fumio Kishida could be outlining a redistribution plan that includes higher taxes, including on capital gains, although he’s yet to outline the specifics of the policy. Separately the Reserve Bank of New Zealand joined the club of central banks raising rates, hiking by 25bps in a move that was the first rate rise in seven years, as they also indicated more hikes might be warranted. In terms of the latest on Evergrande, the firm is still yet to release details of the “major transaction” we mentioned on Monday, with the company’s shares still suspended, whilst Fantasia saw its long-term rating cut to selective default by S&P yesterday, down from CCC. US futures are pointing to further declines later with those on the S&P 500 down -0.39%.

Turning to the ongoing debt ceiling saga, the US Senate has a cloture vote scheduled for today to suspend the ceiling, but Republican leadership are confident they can block the measure and force the Democrats to raise the debt ceiling unilaterally using the budget reconciliation process (which only requires a simple majority of votes in the Senate). So this would tie a move on the debt ceiling into the reconciliation bill that includes President Biden’s “Build Back Better” economic plan. However, the Democrats are maintaining that the reconciliation process takes too long, with the Treasury estimating it will run out of funding around October 18, and have made the case that both parties have a duty to raise the ceiling, since it reflects debts racked up under administrations of both parties rather than just the Democrats. Irrespective of the debt ceiling though, it does continue to sound like there’s movement toward a deal amongst Congressional Democrats on the size of the plan, withSenator Manchin (a key Democratic moderate) reportedly not ruling out a $1.9-2.2 trillion spending plan price tag, which is also the level that President Biden had been floating to House Democrats last week.

Speaking of the Senate, yesterday Senator Elizabeth Warren had yet more strong words for Fed Chair Powell. Warren has already said she opposes giving Powell a second term as the Fed Chair, and yesterday’s speech criticised him for his lack of oversight of the trading activity of Federal Reserve officials. She said Powell has “failed as a leader” and that there are “legitimate questions about conflicts of interest and insider trading” around the actions of certain Fed Officials. This follows her actions on Monday, when she called the SEC to investigate Federal Reserve officials for insider trading. At the same time, Chair Powell asked its inspector general to conduct a review of trades made by Federal Reserve members to ensure they complied with the law and Fed rules. While a White House spokesperson said yesterday that President Biden continues to have confidence in Chair Powell, Senator Warren may be setting up to float an alternative candidate for Chair in the coming weeks ahead of Powell’s term ending early next year.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include German factory orders for August, the German and UK construction PMIs for September, Euro Area retail sales for August, and the ADP’s September report on private payrolls from the US. From central banks, we’ll also hear from the ECB’s Centeno.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED     //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 137.66 PTS OR 0.57% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 295.25 PTS OR 1.05%    //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.53%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed   /Oil DOWN TO 78.58 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 81.99 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED   /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  XXXX AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT XXXX. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4695/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

/NORTH KOREA//SOUTH KOREA

 
end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN

 

 

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EUROPE/ENERGY  UPDATE
Daniel Lacalle explains beautifully Europe’s predicament with rising gas prices.  
(Dr Daniel Lacalle)
 

Europe’s Energy Crisis Presents A Real Danger

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

This week the wholesale price of electricity has exceeded the psychological barrier of 200 euros per megawatt hour in most countries of the European Union. Although the daily price currently only affects 15% of the energy sold, since the rest is locked for almost twelve months since last winter at much lower prices, it is a sign of future risk. Thousands of contracts are going to have to be revised with huge price increases in the next three months when the locked contracts expire.

The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has soared to $34/mmbtu delivered in December and January. In comparable energy terms it would be about $197 per barrel of oil equivalent, according to Morgan Stanley. Meanwhile, the price of natural gas (NBP) has risen more than 200% in 2021.

The price of CO2 emission rights has increased more than 1,000% since 2017, and more than 200% in 2021.

This concept, which is a hidden tax for which the governments of the European Union are going to collect more than 21 billion euros in 2021, adds to the inflationary spike.

These extraordinary tax revenues should be used to mitigate the price increases in consumer bills and avoid an energy crisis in Europe that will sink the recovery.

Two key factors explain the rise in energy prices and in both there is a responsibility of governments:

  1. The forced closure of the economy is a key factor to understand the damage generated in the supply chains, and

  2. the prohibition of investment in gas resources and abandoning nuclear in Germany has led to a more volatile and expensive energy mix in peak demand periods.

This, coupled with a political decision toimpose a volatile and intermittent energy mix has left Europe much more dependent and exposed to gas price fluctuations.

Renewable energies work 20% of the time and when they do not work, the only guarantee of supply is to use natural gas, which tends to happen as Asia demand rises and when its price has skyrocketed.

Of course, demand is a very important factor, but we cannot forget that, in natural gas, as in coal, there is no supply problem. There is, in fact, excess capacity.

Under normal circumstances, the price of natural gas and CO2 would have moderated once the base effect dissipated -in June-, but we forget the disastrous impact of monetary and government interventionism.

The rise in CO2 emission rights is directly the fault of the tax voracity of European governments, which have massively limited the supply of these rights so that the price rises. Additionally, the increase of many goods and services is directly due to the massive money supply growth in 2020, well above the demand for money, generating inflation by political decree.

I do not understand how the fiscal voracity of some governments blinds them to two important risks:

  1. an energy crisis that leaves businesses and families suffocated by a price increase caused by political decisions, and

  2. massive reaction of the population against environmental policies when they see prices skyrocket due to planning errors (more volatile and intermittent energy mix and dependent on gas) and legislation (charging citizens with the full cost of environmental policies and making those who pollute pay, and those who do not, pay even more ).

The most cautious estimates warn that the energy crisis can leave up to 25% of companies (small and medium enterprises, SMEs) in Europe in bankruptcy – since for them energy is 33% of their costs – and erode up to 1.5% of growth of the eurozone, which is already poor anyhow.

Europe needs a balanced and non-ideological energy mix and a competitive energy transition where it is essential to have nuclear and natural gas as back-up where technology and competition drive competitiveness.

Additionally, the Eurozone cannot create extractive mechanisms that destroy the purchasing power of citizens’ wages and savings and then blame others for inflation.

What Europe needs is more competition, technology and innovation and less interventionism. This energy crisis is not going to be the fault of the market, but of the ideological stubbornness of politicians who ignore economic calculations.

 
 
end
 

GERMANY/SUPPLY PROBLEMS/GOODS SHORTAGE

Today with natural gas rising, Germany’s largest ammonia producer slashes output 

(zerohedge)

Dominos Fall As Germany’s Largest Ammonia Producer Slashes Output Amid Energy Crisis 

 
 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 04:15 AM

A natural gas shortage across Europe has created supply-chain shocks, as seen in the food industry, where problems continue to worsen. European natgas prices are at insane levels, triggering a domino effect of output reduction or closures of fertilizer plants on the continent. 

Last month, two of the U.K.’s largest fertilizer factories producing 45% of domestic demand closed, and one shortly reopened with government aid. By late month, Austrian fertilizer producer Borealis AG slashed ammonia output after the cost natgas compressed margins in an industry facing tight supplies

As the dominos fall, SKW Piesteritz, Germany’s largest ammonia producer, announced a 20% reduction in ammonia production due to the record-high natgas prices on Tuesday.

The level that has now been reached no longer enables economically sensible production, so that we are forced to take this step,” the company told Bloomberg in an emailed statement. 

Without government action, there is a risk of production being halted shortly,” the statement continued. 

We’ve seen this story play out when U.K.’s C.F. Industries shuttered two plants last month because of soaring natgas prices and caused an immediate disruption to the food industry. Then the government swooped in with emergency orders to restart at least one of the plants. 

As a refresher, natgas is used to synthesize ammonia for nitrogen fertilizers for the farm industry, and a byproduct is CO2, used heavily in the food industry, for food packaging to stunning animals at slaughterhouses to bubbly soda pop. 

Bloomberg’s Mike Dennis created an infographic of European natgas prices and the events surrounded by rising prices. 

Source: Bloomberg

The main reason behind the natgas price surge is the dramatic reduction in gas flows from Russia. Europe’s top supplier, Russia, into Germany’s Mallnow via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, plunged 28% Y/Y as of Sept. 

 

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, European politicians have been trying to pin the cause of Europe’s energy crisis on the Kremlin and Gazprom in hopes of deflecting from their woeful mismanagement of the continent’s energy grid. Russia announced this week that the Nord Stream 2 natgas pipeline has begun filling with gas in the first line while awaiting approval from Germany regulators, which could take months while the continent’s natgas stockpiles dwindle below seasonal averages ahead of winter. 

This means that the shortage of basic chemical materials can increase food inflation, just as the global economy could be stumbling into a stagflationary period. 

end

UK/EUROPEAN / GAS PRICES//NATURAL GAS SHORTAGES

 

EU Politicians Panic As Natgas Prices Explode 40% Overnight

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 07:36 AM

Europe’s power crunch is roiling energy markets Wednesday as Dutch and U.K. natural gas futures jumped 60% in just two days, hitting record highs along with soaring power prices. 

Front-month Dutch natgas futures rose an astonishing 40% today to a record 162.125 euros per megawatt-hour after a 20% move higher on Tuesday. U.K. natgas futures surged 39% today, hitting 40 dollars.  

For context, the EU NatGas prices are equivalent to $250 oil…

“This is just ridiculous,” Tom Marzec-Manser, an analyst at ICIS, told Bloomberg.

“Almost impossible to even justify or qualify how and why it’s moving so fast and so high.”

E.U. politicians are in panic mode to protect consumers and businesses from rising natgas and power prices. The European Union’s energy chief Kadri Simson said a revision on energy regulations could happen by the end of the year to prevent soaring energy costs from derailing the economic recovery. As we’ve already seen, soaring natgas prices have resulted in fertilizer manufacturers limiting or halt operations from the U.K. to Germany, which has disrupted food supply chains.   

Ahead of winter, E.U.’s natgas stockpiles are at their lowest seasonal levels in more than a decade. The continent is super reliant on Russian natgas, which flows have declined in recent months. It’s also unclear when new supplies through Nord Stream 2, the new controversial pipeline from Russia, may begin – at this point, it’s too late for fresh supplies as the restocking period was a month ago. There are discussions E.U. politicians may certify the Russian pipeline early next year. Again, that would be during the winter season and too late to alleviate shortages and higher prices. Europe is in for one harsh winter. But don’t worry. Governments are likely to subsidize energy costs for households and even businesses to thwart a winter of discontent. After all, politicians only have one job: Get re-elected.  

Meanwhile, the electricity crisis continues to roil Asian markets as Chinese buyers are paying top dollar for natgas as Beijing ordered energy firms to secure supplies at all costs.

“We are currently living exceptional circumstances,” analysts at consultant Engie EnergyScan told clients.

“The world gas market has never been in a situation where Asia and Europe were obliged to compete fiercely for the marginal LNG cargo available — as the latter was supposed to benefit from comfortable pipeline supply.”

Global natgas and even coal markets have significantly tightened ahead of the northern hemisphere winter. Fall has already begun, temperatures are dipping, and many of these regions are caught with below-average energy supplies. The chaos abroad has even boosted U.S. natgas prices to the highest level in 12 years to $6.466 per million British thermal units in New York. 

The astronomical rise in natgas futures makes one wonder if the move is now being driven by the world’s top commodity trading houses, who have all been crushed by a spread (or arbitrage trade) gone wrong. The strategy backfired, and many small-to-mid-sized trading firms are likely facing margin calls on a scale not seen before. 

And don’t expect it to stop anytime soon…

 

 

end

Putin, the real true stateman claims that with Europe in chaos Russia is ready to stabilize the gas market

(zerohedge)

 

With Europe In Chaos, Putin Says Russia Ready To Help Stabilize Gas Market

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 08:59 AM

With European gas prices exploding overnight, and soaring as much as 40% today alone…

… with day-ahead electricity prices across continental Europe hitting record highs – Germany is above €300 per MWh. In Spain, it surged to €288 per MWh, that’s ~550% above the 2010-2020 price average, and so on…

… prices abruptly reversed course after a glimmer of hope emerged out of the biggest European supplier, Russia, moments ago when Vladimir Putin spoke at an energy meeting in Moscow saying Russia is ready to help stabilize energy markets, adding that contrary to insinuations from Brussels, Gazprom has never refused to increase supplies to customers and Gazprom supplies to Europe may reach record highs.

Putin did not miss the opportunity to mock Europe’s catastrophic handling of energy needs, saying that the gas crisis shows European authorities made mistakes. Of course, what he is referring to here is the inexplicable delay in the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline which is so absolutely critical for Europe’s energy needs.

And while Putin said that Russia has increased supplies to Europe, adding that Gazprom is increasing gas transit via Ukraine’s gas transportation system, and most likely will exceed its contract liabilities, a quick look at the actual flows of Russian gas into Germany’s Mallnow via the Yamal-Europe pipeline show s that there is much to be desired.

Of course, what Putin meant to say is that Russia will increase supplies if and only if NS2 is launched, but that didn’t matter for Europe’s manic energy market where the price of UK gas plunged from all time highs on hopes Russia will indeed provide some reprieve from the unprecedented energy crisis.

Then again, as Daniel Lacalle points out, anything Russia does is likely to be at best a short-term fix for the EU which wants energy independence “without nuclear, coal, gas or oil and penalizing investment in copper and aluminium.”

 

 

 
ECB
Get ready for the next QE even though the current one has not run out!
(zerohedge)

ECB Already Preparing Next QE To Address “Market Turmoil” When Emergency QE Ends Next Year

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 03:19 PM

The ECB has not even started tapering and it’s already preparing for the next QE.

According to Bloomberg, the European Central Bank is studying a new bond-buying program “to prevent any market turmoil when emergency purchases get phased out next year.” The plan, according to Bloomberg sources, “would both replace the existing crisis tool and complement an older, open-ended quantitative-easing scheme that’s currently acquiring 20 billion euros ($23.1 billion) in debt every month.”

The reason for setting up a brand new QE Such an initiative would act as an insurance measure in case the scheduled end in March of the 1.85 trillion-euro so-called Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program, known as PEPP, prompts a market selloff of bonds from highly indebted countries such as Italy, according to the officials.

The reason for the new QE is simple: once the old “emergency” QE ends and market “turmoil” emerges, the ECB will have to buy even more debt, and this time without capital key limitations. In other words, the ECB is preparing an even bigger bazooka for when the current one runs out of ammo.

Bloomberg confirms as much: under the plan, the source say that purchases would be conducted selectively, which would circumvent the “capital key” rule applying to both of the existing programs that requires central banks to buy debt in relation to the size of each country’s economy. That rule, a legacy since the ECB’s original QE started in 2015, is intended to assuage concerns that the ECB is financing governments, which is something forbidden by law. Which, of course, the ECB is doing.

According to the report, ECB policy makers are trying to smooth the exit from existing emergency stimulus settings while keeping a lid on investor speculation, now that governments are even more exposed after building up debts to fund massive fiscal support. Specifically, they are eyeing the chaos that engulfed Italian debt at the start of the Covid crisis:

Italian debt has led a selloff in European bonds over the last two weeks, with 10-year yields rising around 25 basis points to 0.89%, the highest since June. The same rate on Spanish debt is 0.47%.

ECB President Christine Lagarde and her colleagues have delayed to December an update to the path of monetary stimulus next year. She said in a Bloomberg TV interview in July that the pandemic program could be followed by a “transition into a new format,” without elaborating.

Meanwhile, with the ECB already setting the stage for the next QE, we still have to get to the tapering phase, which as we showed last month will look something like this…. if it ever hits of course.

 

 
 

SWITZERLAND/GREENSIL/CREDIT SUISSE/UK

Swiss Police raid Credit Suisse as the investigation heats up

(zerohedge)

Swiss Police Raid Credit Suisse Offices As Greensill Investigation Heats Up

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 02:45 AM

Unsurprisingly given the large number of municipalities in Germany, Switzerland and elsewhere that invested in Greensill, either via Credit Suisse and its ‘trade finance’ funds, or by placing deposits with Greensill’s Bavaria-based bank. In the end, plenty of small towns were swindled by Greensill’s downfall – it wasn’t all wealthy individuals and sovereign wealth funds.

And so, as the months have passed since Greensill filed for administration, prosecutors around the world have been ramping up investigations into the firm with a focus on fraud or wrongdoing perpetrated by its leaders, or its enablers (including banks like Credit Suisse that helped package and sell Greensill’s assets in their “trade finance” funds.

Well, with the noose presumably closing around Greensill, the FT reports that Swiss police have raided the offices of Credit Suisse and seized documents relating to the collapse of Credit Suisse’s $10 billion in Greensill funds.

The raid was ordered by Zürich’s cantonal public prosecutor. Credit Suisse acknowledged the raid to the FT, but the bank insisted CS wasn’t the target of the probe, and was merely cooperating with the probe into Greensill.

However, the notion that CS might bear some criminal liability here isn’t all that far-fetched. It has already been established that Credit Suisse sold the trade-finance funds – packed with assets that were essentially a collection of invoices – to top clients by touting their high ratings and supposedly low risk structure.

Long before Greensill’s collapse, it was revealed by the FT that the CS trade finance funds might be functioning, in reality, as a way to secretly (and perhaps illegally)  prop up SoftBank Vision Fund portfolio companies.

Even the FT acknowledges that charges against Credit Suisse would be a problem for CS, especially on top of all the class-action lawsuits that have been filed.

A number of class-action lawsuits have already been filed by angry investors. Criminal charges by Swiss authorities would be a significant fillip for their legal efforts, in which questions have been raised over the tight relationship between Credit Suisse and Greensill, and the amount of due diligence the bank did.

Whatever prosecutors find in this trove of documents, we’re certainly waiting with baited breath to see what prosecutors in this case do next.

END

POLAND
Poland joins New Zealand in hiking rates in trying to tackle non transitory inflation
(zerohedge)

Poland Unexpectedly Hikes Rates For The First Time Since 2012 To Tackle Nontransitory Inflation

 
 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 11:00 AM

Just a few short hours after the RBNZ hiked New Zealand’s interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50% for the first time since the covid pandemic, in a move that was widely expected (there was no single case of covid to derail this particular rate hike)…

… an actual surprise came out of Poland whose central banks unexpectedly raised interest rates by 40 basis points, caving in to pressure to act against surging inflation that has already prompted nearby Hungary and the Czech Republic to start tightening monetary policy.  None of the 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the increase that pushed the reference rate to 0.5%, compared with inflation at 5.8%

Poland’s first hike since 2012 came a day after central bank Governor Adam Glapinski signaled policy makers were getting close to lifting borrowing costs from their record low, but gave no indication the decision was imminent. It also comes one day after the central banker said Poland would seek to buy 100 tons of gold in 2022.

A closer look at the statement reveals that the decision appears to have been somewhat chaotic and while it said that it was prompted by the attempt to ease inflation to its target in the medium term, the statement did not specify if the rate rise was the start of a tightening cycle or an one-time increase.

Unlike the Fed, at least Poland had the guts to inflation appears to no longer be transitory, and instead “may remain elevated longer than expected.”

“Amid probable further economic recovery and favorable labor market conditions, inflation may remain elevated longer than hitherto expected”

“Even though the impact of some supply-side factors currently increasing inflation will fade next year, the rise in global prices of both energy and agricultural commodities observed in recent months may still increase price growth in the coming quarters”

Bloomberg notes that the statement also omitted previous a sentence that said the central bank will continue its bond-buying program.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

TURKEY/CHINA/THE WEST

An excellent commentary from Ehret on Turkey’s big choice to make:

(Ehret)

Turkey’s Existential Choice: BRI Or Bust

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Matthew Ehret via TheCradle.co,

Turkey may be where east meets west, but it can no longer afford to straddle two opposing geoeconomic agendas vying to define West and Central Asia’s development. Ankara must choose, and soon…

Two destinies are pulling on West Asia from two opposing visions of the future.

As devotees of the rules-based order laid out by Zbigniew Brzezinski 40 years ago strive to uphold their dystopic model of dividing populations to feed endless wars, a more optimistic program of cooperation is being ushered in by China’s ever-evolving Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

While many nations have jumped on board this new paradigm with enthusiastic support, others have found themselves precariously straddling both worlds.

Turkey plays footsie with great powers

Chief among those indecisive nations is the Republic of Turkey, whose leader was given a harsh wake up call on 15 July, 2016. It was on this date that Russian intelligence provided Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan the edge needed to narrowly avoid a coup launched by followers of exiled Islamist leader Fetullah Gulen.

The timing of the coup has been subject to much speculation, but the fact that it occurred just two weeks after Erdogan’s letter of apology to Putin went public was likely not a coincidence. The apology in question referred to Turkey’s decision to shoot down a Russian fighter jet flying in Syrian airspace in November 2015, killing a soldier and very nearly activating NATO’s collective security pact.

For years instrumental in providing weapons and logistical support to ISIS in both Iraq and Syria (via Operation Timber Sycamore), it is possible Erdogan was tiring of being used to further western interests in the Levant, when it had its own, quite different, aspirations in those territories.

Whatever the case, since that fateful day, Turkey’s behavior as a player in West Asia took on an improved (though not entirely redeemed) character on a number of levels. Chief among those positive behavioral changes is Ankara’s participation in the Astana process with Tehran and Moscow to demilitarize large swathes of Syria. Turkey then purchased Russian S400 medium-long range missile defense systems, and has recently advanced plans to jointly produce submarines, jet engines and warships with Russia, while also accelerating the construction of a nuclear reactor built by Rosatom.

That said, old habits die hard, and Turkey has been caught playing in both worlds, providing continued support for the terrorist-laden Free Syrian Army and Al Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir Al Sham in Syria’s Idlib governorate. Turkey now has a total of 60 military bases and observation posts that provide protection for these and other militant groups in the country’s north.

The Middle Corridor option

On an economic level, Turkey’s ambition to become a gateway between Europe and Asia along the New Silk Road also indicates Erdogan’s resolution to break from his previous commitments to join the European Union and engage more intricately with the East.

Turkey’s 7500 km Trans-Caspian East-West Middle Corridor is an ambitious project that runs parallel to the northern corridor of the BRI connecting China to Europe.

This corridor, which began running in November 2019, has the benefit of cutting nearly 2000 km of distance off the active northern corridor and provides an efficient route between China and Europe. The route itself moves goods from the north-eastern Lianyungang Port in China through Xinjiang into Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and on to Europe via land and sea routes. Erdogan has previously stated that “the Middle Corridor lies at the heart of the BRI” and has called to “integrate the Middle Corridor into the BRI.”

Other projects that are subsumed by the Middle Corridor include the $20 billion Istanbul Canal which will be a 45km connection between the Black and Marmara Seas (reducing traffic on the Bosporus) as well as the Marmara undersea railway, Eurasian Tunnel, and the third Istanbul Bridge.

Without China’s increased involvement, not only will these projects fail to take shape, but the Middle Corridor itself would crumble into oblivion. Chinese trade with Turkey recently grew from $2 billion in 2002 to $26 billion in 2020, more than 1,000 Chinese companies have investment projects throughout the nation, and Chinese consortiums hold a 65 percent stake in Turkey’s third largest port.

Restraining Ankara’s options

These projects have not come without a fight from both internal forces within Turkey and external ones. Two major Turkish opposition parties have threatened to cancel the Canal Istanbul as a tactic to scare away potential investors at home and abroad. And internationally, financial warfare has been unleashed against Turkey’s economy on numerous levels.

Credit ratings agencies have downgraded Turkey to a ‘high risk’ nation, and sanctions have been launched by the US and EU. These acts have contributed to international investors pulling out from Turkish government bonds (a quarter of all bonds were held by foreign investors in 2009, collapsing to less than 4 percent today) and depriving the nation of vital productive credit to build infrastructure. These attacks have also resulted in the biggest Turkish banks stating they will not provide any funding to the megaproject.

Despite the fact that Chinese investments into Turkey have increased significantly, western Financial Direct Investments (FDIs) have fallen from $12.18 billion in 2009 to only $6.67 billion in 2021.

Dialing down its Uyghur project

As with Turkey’s relations with Russia, Erdogan’s desperate need to collaborate with China in the financial realm has resulted in a change of policy in his support for Uyghur extremists. Of the 13 million Chinese Uyghurs, 50,000 live in Turkey, many of whom are part of a larger CIA-funded operation aimed at carving up China.

For many years, Turkey has provided safe haven to terrorist groups like the East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement, which cut its teeth fighting alongside ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Operatives affiliated with the World Uyghur Congress, funded by the US National Endowment for Democracy and based in Germany, have also found fertile soil in Turkey.

In 2009, Erdogan publicly denounced China for conducting a genocide on Muslims living in Xinjiang (long before it became de rigueur to do so in western nations). After Turkey’s 2016 failed coup, things began to change. In 2017, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu stated: “We will absolutely not allow in any activities in Turkey that target or oppose China. Additionally, we will take measures to eliminate any media reports targeting China.”

There are many parallels to Turkey’s protection of radical Islamic groups in Idlib, but Ankara’s protection of radical anti-China Uyghur groups was more gradual. However, recent significant moves by Erdogan have demonstrated good faith, including the 2017 extradition treaty signed with China (ratified by Beijing though not yet by Ankara), an increased clampdown on Uyghur extremist groups, and the decision to re-instate the exclusion order banning World Uyghur Congress president Dolkun Isa from entering Turkey on 19 September, 2021.

Might the INSTC bypass Ankara?

Not only is Turkey eager to play a role in China’s BRI and secure essential long term credit from Beijing – without which its future will be locked to the much diminished fortunes of the European Union – but Ankara has also factored the growing International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) into its calculus.

A multimodal corridor stretching across a dozen nations, the INSTC was launched by Russia, India and Iran in 2002 and has been given new life by China’s BRI. In recent years, members of the project have grown to also include Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, Syria, Belarus, Oman and Bulgaria.

While Turkey is a member of the project, there is no guarantee that the megaproject will directly move through its borders. Here too, Erdogan is keen to stay on good terms with Russia and its allies.

The International North South Transportation Corridor [image: Wikicommons]

The Middle Corridor loses its shine

Up until now, Turkey’s inability to break with zero-sum thinking has resulted in the self-delusion that Turkey’s Middle Corridor would be the only possible choice China had to move goods through to Europe and North Africa.

This perception was for many years buoyed by the war across the ISIS-ridden region of Syria and Iraq (and the relative isolation of Iran), which appeared to ensure that no competing development corridor could be activated.

However, Iran’s entry into the BRI as part of its 25-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership struck with China in March, and its ascension to full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in September, has provided an attractive new east-west alternative route to the Middle Corridor.

Potential rail lines moving from China to Iran, Iraq and Syria

This potential branch of the New Silk Road connecting China with Europe via Iran, Iraq and Syria into the Mediterranean through Syria’s port of Latakia provides a unique opportunity to not only reconstruct the war-torn West Asian nations, but to also create a durable field of stability after decades of western manipulation.

This new route has the additional attraction of incorporating Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and other Arab states into a new strategic dynamic that connects Eurasia with an African continent desperate for real development. As of this writing, 40 sub-Saharan African nations have signed onto China’s BRI.

The first glimmering light of this new corridor took form in a small but game-changing 30 km rail line connecting the border city of Shalamcheh in Iran with Basra in Iraq. Work began this year, with its $150 million cost supplied by the semi-private Mostazan Foundation of Iran.

Foreseeing a much larger expansion of this historic connection, Iran’s ambassador to Iraq stated: “Iraq can be connected to China through the railways of Iran and increase its strategic importance in the region … this will be a very big change and Iran’s railways will be connected to Iraq and Syria and to the Mediterranean.”

Ambassador Masjidi was here referring to the provisional agreement reached among Iran, Iraq and Syria in November 2018 to build a 1570 km railway and highway from the Persian Gulf in Iran to the Latakia Port via Iraq.

Already, Iran’s construction-focused investments in war-torn and sanction-torn Syria have grown immensely, boosting estimated trade between the two nations with an additional $1 billion over the next 12 months.

Indicating the higher development dynamic that is shaping the Iraq–Iran railway, Iraq’s Prime Minister stated in May 2021 that “negotiations with Iran to build a railway between Basra and Shalamcheh have reached their final stages and we have signed 15 agreements and memorandums of understanding with Jordan and Egypt regarding energy and transportation lines.”

Indeed, both Egypt and Jordan have also looked east for the only pathway to durable peace in the form of the New Silk Road. The trio of Egypt, Jordan and Iraq began setting the stage for this Silk Road route with a 2017 energy agreement designed to connect the electricity grids of the three nations and also construct a pipeline from Basra to Aqaba in Jordan followed by a larger extension to Egypt.

A broad array of development corridors await the African and Arab worlds if the current Iraq-Syria-Iran triad can avoid being destabilized. The image above features several possibilities [Schiller Institute]

Iraq and the New Silk Road

In December 2020, Iraq and Egypt agreed on an important oil for reconstruction deal along the lines of a similar program activated earlier by former Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi and his Chinese counterpart in September 2019. The latter project was seriously downgraded when Mahdi stepped down in May 2020, and although PM Mustafa Al-Kadhimi has begun to repair Chinese relations, Iraq has not yet returned to the level of cooperation reached by his predecessor.

To date, the only major power that has shown any genuine concern for Iraq’s reconstruction – and been willing to invest actual resources toward it – has been China.

Despite the trillions of dollars wasted by the United States in its brutal invasion and occupation of the country, not a single energy project has been built by US dollars there. In fact, the only power plant constructed after 2003 has been the Chinese-built 2450 mW thermal plant in Wassit which supplies 20 percent of Iraq’s electricity. Iraq requires at least 19 GW of electricity in order to supply its basic needs after years of western bombardment strategically targeting its vital infrastructure.

To this day, hardly any domestic manufacturing exists in Iraq, with 97 percent of its needs purchased from abroad, and entirely with oil revenue. If this dire situation is to be reversed, then China’s oil-for-construction plan must be brought fully back online.

The kernel of this plan involves a special fund which will accumulate sales of discounted Iraqi oil to China until a $1.5 billion threshold is reached. When this happens, Chinese state banks have agreed to add an additional $8.5 billion, bringing the fund to $10 billion to be used on a full reconstruction program driven by roads, rail, water treatment, and energy grids, as well as soft infrastructure like schools and healthcare.

Where the western economic models have tended to keep nations underdeveloped by emphasizing raw material extraction with no long-term investments that benefit its citizenry, creating no manufacturing capabilities or an increase in the powers of labor, the Chinese-model is entirely different, focusing instead on creating full spectrum economies. Where the former is zero sum and a closed system, the latter model is win-win and open.

If Turkey can find the sense to liberate itself from the obsolete logic of zero sum geopolitics, then a bright future will await all of West and Central Asia.

There is no reason to believe that the Middle Corridor will in any way be harmed by the success of an Iran–Iraq–Syria Silk Road corridor, or by its African extensions. By encouraging the development of collaborative relations, large scale infrastructure, and full-spectrum economic networks, abundance can be created in these regions to offset the underdevelopment and stagnation of recent years.

 

end

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

Ontario doctor resigns over forced vaccines.  She claims that 80% of her ER patients are coming in with mysterious issues after having both jabs.

(zerohedge)

 

Featured ImageDr. Rochagné KilianYouTube

LifeSiteNews has produced an extensive COVID-19 vaccines resources page. View it here.

OWEN SOUND, Ontario (LifeSiteNews) – Dr. Rochagné Kilian recently resigned as an emergency room and family practice physician due to her concerns that the Ontario health system and Grey Bruce Health Services (GBHS) crossed ethical lines throughout the pandemic. 

In a virtual meeting that included GBHS CEO Gary Sims and other staff members, Dr. Kilian asked Sims a series of questions about what she believes is unethical behaviour on behalf of the Ontario health system at all levels. Sims appeared to be unprepared for difficult questions pertaining to the ongoing rollout of vaccination mandates and vaccine segregation restrictions the Ontario heath system is championing.

Kilian estimated that 80 percent of the patients she saw in the ER during the past month who had inexplicable symptoms were “double vaxxed.”

Dr. Kilian relocated to Owen Sound – a small city in Grey County, Ontario – from South Africa after previously working in British Columbia. When she resettled in Owen Sound with her family, she expressed to a local paper how happy she was to live there: “Our recruitment to Owen Sound might have been by chance, but our choice to settle here was definitely not. Our four months in Owen Sound have been blessed. A little town with lots of soul, surrounded by beautiful landscapes, filled with welcoming residents and businesses, and exciting festivals, programs and activities. We truly feel fortunate to raise a family here.”

The first issue that Dr. Kilian brought up during the meeting was informed consent regarding the COVID jab and what she considered to be a coercive mentality of pressuring people to accept medications that she pointed out are still in “clinical trials.”

An GBHS administrator did not answer her question directly, but instead passed the buck to the provincial government and stated they do not have “oversight or input” regarding consent mechanisms presented to patients.

Kilian added that having more input into what patients are consenting to is something that GBHS “should consider,” especially in light of enacting the government-recommended vaccination mandates with their own staff.

Referring to informed consent and mandating experimental vaccines that been linked to thousands of deaths and injuries, Sims explained that because of the “pandemic,” certain procedural normalities will not take place.

“In a pandemic, some of those pieces that you think would be there [mechanisms of informed consent from the government] when you have lots of time to review stuff … in a pandemic, they’re going to pass mandates, and they’re going to pass laws, and they’re going to pass directives as needed to manage that pandemic,” he said. “And some of the things … will feel like they’re infringing on or taking short cuts … they are doing that directly to save lives.”

 
 

Dr. Kilian pressed Sims about claims that protocols of informed consent can be skirted due to an emergency, and clarified that the Tri-Council Policy Statement stipulates that an emergency situation does not warrant skirting protocols that protect the population from being put at risk due to medical experimentation. The Tri-Council Policy Statement is a Canadian guideline for the ethical conduct of research involving humans and/or human biological materials. As the vaccinations are still technically under experimental trial, they are being implemented under a research-based framework on the population. 

It was Kilian’s opinion that the ethical framework is being ignored, thus health workers and citizens are being forced to take something against their will that is not proven to be safe or effective in the long term, as a result of vaccination mandates.

Sims reacted sharply to Kilian and said, “Nobody is forcing you to do this, you have a right to say no, but the reality is the government has the right to say that you’re not employed.”

“When the law looks at it, the law is saying you have the right to do it [enforcing vaccine mandates],” he added.

Dr. Byram Bridle, a University of Guelph professor, recently released a letter he sent to the president of his university that called into question the legitimacy of vaccine mandates, both from a medical and legal perspective. He stated in the letter that he is “confident there will be lawyers willing to test this in court.” 

Dr. Kilian asked a final question in the virtual meeting about the claims that Sims and others at GBHS have made about the majority of COVID-associated cased in the region being among the unvaccinated. She asked if there was a detailed database that could be shared to prove this point. Sims stated that the vaccination status of the individuals who have been admitted in his region could not be released due to privacy reasons, but that the provincial government would have the information.

He then claimed that provincially, “less than 0.7 percent of people who ended up in ICUs were vaccinated.”

He referred to the “third wave” of COVID in Ontario that he said was due to the Delta variant, and stated that “it was all unvaccinated” who fell seriously ill at that time. The third wave in Ontario is reported to have happened in April and May. The vast majority of Ontarians had not received their second dose of any COVID jab by that point, and the province has made it clear in numerous places that a person only counts as “full vaccinated” for clinical purposes after 14 days have passed since they have received their second dose. 

During the month of May in the Grey Bruce region, there were a total three confirmed hospitalizations  with COVID-19. Five people in the region died that month with a COVID-positive diagnosis, and two of the deaths were residents who died outside of the county.

Sims said on the call that a minimum “80 percent” and up to “97 percent” of ICU patients with COVID across the province were unvaccinated. It is impossible to reach that number given the Grey Bruce statistics because there are too few people for calculations to be mathematical doable.

He then intimated that there will be great fears among pediatric physicians regarding autumn COVID numbers “if children start to die.” There is no evidence to suggest that COVID is dangerous to children in any statistically significant way.

Dr. Kilian resigned from her position while on the call with GBHS administration and spoke about her situation on the The Strong and Free TruthCast, where she criticized the state of health care in Canada. She expressed that care for the individual patient has gone by the wayside during the “farce that we have been living through.” 

She said that throughout the entire time that the pandemic has been declared, she has only admitted two patients to the ICU that tested positive for COVID. She then clarified that this did not mean they were in the ICU due to COVID, but only that they had tested positive. She stated that her emergency department was “dead” throughout all of the declared waves of COVID, and that she took pictures of the official numbers to prove that they “had nothing to do” with lack of patients.

Dr. Kilian added that since the rollout of COVID jabs, she has seen a striking uptick in patients who have been admitted with heart issues and do not fit risk categories. She stated that as more and more people have received the jab, she has seen a host of strange events in her patients. She spoke of “people coming with newly diagnosed high blood-pressure, diabetics that was controlled that are no longer controlled – their sugars are either through the roof or they’re down in the ground … The only factor … constant that changed in their life was the injection of an experimental biologic.”

END

Covid 19 generally does not cause myocarditis but the vaccine surely does.  They lied:  He definitely took the shot and now his career is finished

(Gretz)

Oilers’ Josh Archibald sidelined indefinitely with myocarditis

Josh Archibald Edmonton Oilers

 

Getty

 

Edmonton Oilers coach Dave Tippett announced on Sunday that forward Josh Archibald will be sidelined indefinitely after he was diagnosed with heard condition myocarditis. Archibald had a COVID-19 case over the summer that resulted in the condition and will keep him out of the lineup.

Archibald is the second Oilers player to be diagnosed with myocarditis, following goalie Alex Stalock. Stalock is going to miss the entire 2021-22 season. He was diagnosed with myocarditis after contracting COVID-19 during the 2020-21 season.

It was revealed at the start of training camp that Archibald was the only unvaccinated player on the Oilers’ roster.

At the time the Oilers said he was dealing with a medical issue, but was undergoing daily COVID tests and consistently testing negative.

Archibald has been with the Oilers for the past two seasons. He appeared in 52 games a year ago, scoring seven goals to go with six assists.

END

All vaccines are causing myocarditis and thus must be stopped

(Reuters)

Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals

Sweden, Denmark pauses use of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine for younger age groups

STOCKHOLM, Oct 6 (Reuters) – Sweden and Denmark said on Wednesday they will pause the use of Moderna’s (MRNA.O) COVID-19 vaccine for younger age groups after reports of possible rare side effects, such as myocarditis.

The Swedish health agency said it would pause using the shot for people born in 1991 and later as data pointed to an increase of myocarditis and pericarditis among youths and young adults that had been vaccinated. Those conditions involve an inflammation of the heart or its lining.

“The connection is especially clear when it comes to Moderna’s vaccine Spikevax, especially after the second dose,” the health agency said in a statement, adding the risk of being affected was very small.

Denmark said that, while it was already using the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine as the main option for people aged 12-17 years, it had decided to pause giving the Moderna vaccine to people below 18 according to a “precautionary principle”.

 

“In the preliminary data … there is a suspicion of an increased risk of heart inflammation, when vaccinated with Moderna,” The Danish Health Authority said in a statement.

A nurse prepares a syringe with a dose of the Moderna coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine at Enfermera Isabel Zendal hospital in Madrid, Spain, July 23, 2021. REUTERS/Juan Medina
A nurse prepares a syringe with a dose of the Moderna coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine at Enfermera Isabel Zendal hospital in Madrid, Spain, July 23, 2021. REUTERS/Juan Medina

It referred to data from a yet unpublished Nordic study, which would now be sent to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for further assessment. Final data was expected within a month, it added.

Sweden and Denmark said they now recommended the Comirnaty vaccine, from Pfizer/Biontech, instead.

Norway already recommends the Cominarty vaccine to minors and said on Wednesday that it was reiterating this, underlining that the rare side effects could happen particularly for boys and young men, and mainly after receiving a second dose.

 

“Men under the age of 30 should also consider choosing Cominarty when they get vaccinated,” Geir Bukholm, head of infection control at the Norwegian Institute of Publica Health, said in a statement.

A Finnish health official said Finland expected to publish a decision on Thursday.

The EMA approved the use of Comirnaty in May, while Spikevax was given the nod for children over 12 in July.

end
 
Canadian Press
 
(zerohedge)

Canada makes vaccines mandatory for public servants, air and rail workers, travellers

OTTAWA — The core public service, air travel and rail employees and travellers must all be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by the end of October, according to Canada’s new mandatory vaccine policy.
 
2021100522108-615d058afa42294bf6ceb771jpeg

OTTAWA — The core public service, air travel and rail employees and travellers must all be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by the end of October, according to Canada’s new mandatory vaccine policy.

The federal government announced Wednesday public servants must attest they are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by Oct. 29, or be put on unpaid administrative leave.

The new policy will affect more than 267,000 core public-service and RCMP workers, and will apply even to those who work from home and outside of the country.

“This … is about the government taking action on behalf of that majority who spoke in the election, to be sure that a minority of people cannot sabotage Canada’s economic recovery and cannot allow the fourth wave or other variants to cause real problems for us,” Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said at a press briefing Wednesday.

But the Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC), which represents more than 160,000 federal workers, said the government did not properly consult with bargaining agents or incorporate any feedback from unions. 

“We see that this is being rushed, without meaningful consultation,” said Chris Aylward, PSAC national president. 

The Treasury Board Secretariat of Canada did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 

The union has questions about how the government plans to protect workers’ private health information and how it will keep unvaccinated contract workers and visitors out of federal workspaces, he said.

“And of course, human rights, members’ human rights must be protected under the Canadian Human Rights Act, including the duty to accommodate,” Aylward said. 

Workers will have to provide an attestation of their vaccine status online. The attestations will be tracked and audited by departments, and managers can ask for proof of vaccination at any time. 

Employees who provide false attestations will be punished with disciplinary action, including firings.

People who have had only one dose will be given 10 weeks to get their next one before they are put on unpaid leave.

They will not be allowed back at work until they are either vaccinated or the policy is no longer in effect.

Employees put on unpaid leave will generally not qualify for employment insurance benefits, officials said. 

Aylward said options should be explored to accommodate unvaccinated workers.

“What about if this work can be done remotely? What about reassignment of duties? None of that was explored,” he said. 

But the government has opted for a blunt approach.

 

“It’s very straightforward. If you want to continue to work for the public service of Canada, you’re going to need to be fully vaccinated,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Wednesday.

Approximately 82 per cent of eligible Canadians have received a double dose of Health Canada-approved vaccines.

PSAC does not have a record of how many of its members are vaccinated, but expects the vast majority have had their shots. 

There will be accommodations made for people who are unable to receive a vaccine on grounds protected under the Canadian Human Rights Act, which includes religious and health reasons for not having a full slate of vaccines.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said exemptions will be difficult and onerous to obtain, and simply having a personal conviction that vaccines are “bad” will not be sufficient.

Stephane Aubry, vice-president of the Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada (PIPSC), said his union is concerned about how those accommodations will play out.

While his union is not planning to challenge the new policy, they may have to file grievances on a case-by-case basis, he said. 

“This is a concern for us because it’s pressure on the employees, and we will defend our members as much as we can,” Aubry said in an interview Wednesday. 

The Union of Canadian Correctional Officers wrote to members that it will represent them through the grievance process if they choose not to get a COVID-19 vaccine, but warned the process could take two or three years and there is no court precedent that could predict the outcome. 

Other federally regulated workplaces like Crown corporations and government agencies will be asked to mirror the public service mandatory vaccine policy for their employees.

The acting chief of the defence staff Gen. Wayne Eyre will also issue a directive requiring vaccination for the Canadian Armed Forces.

Meanwhile, the government is working with employers of airport businesses, airline and rail companies to develop their own mandatory vaccine policies by the end of the month.

Anyone over the age of 12 who plans to hop aboard a plane at a Canadian airport or Via Rail or Rocky Mountaineer train must have received a second dose of a Health Canada-approved vaccine at least 14 days before their travels.

For travellers, there will be a short transition period to allow the unvaccinated to show a negative molecular COVID-19 test instead, though the grace period will last only until Nov. 30.

Cruise companies will also be asked to implement mandatory vaccines for employees and travellers in time for the 2022 season.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 6, 2021.

Laura Osman, The Canadian Press

end

Disaster facing Quebec health care system as many workers are losing their jobs and the system is already short staffed.

(Robert H)

Quebec Facing Disaster as October 15 Deadline Looms – YouTube

 
 
 
 
Good luck with health care in Quebec after the 15th
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBkgYMeMe1I


Cheers
Robert
 
 
 
 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video Quebec Facing Disaster as October 15 Deadline Looms

Mises looks at the correct way to study Sweden’s no lockdown policies.  Sweden with a doubt had fewer excess deaths than most of Europe

(McMaken/Mises Institute)

Without Lockdowns, Sweden Had Fewer Excess Deaths Than Most Of Europe

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

It’s now been more than eighteen months since governments began the new social experiment now known as “lockdowns.”

Prior to 2020, forced “social distancing” was generally considered to be too costly in societal terms to justify such a risky experiment.

Yet in 2020, led by health technocrats at the World Health Organization, nearly all national governments in the world suddenly and without precedent embraced the idea of lockdowns.

On the other hand, the Swedish regime rejected the idea.

For this act of iconoclasm, the Swedish government was pilloried by media organizations and non-Swedish government officials worldwide. The predictions of doom and of a widespread Swedish bloodbath were ubiquitous. Months later, even when it became clear Sweden was not the death-addled outlier many assumed it would be, it was common to see articles declaring Swedish covid policy to be a “disaster.”

Even eighteen months later, as the Sweden-is-doomed narrative broke down even more, critics of Sweden contort themselves to create an anti-Swedish narrative. Consider this August 2021 article at Business Insider, for example, which carefully slices and dices the data to make Sweden’s outcomes look bad. The author slyly writes:

Since the start of the pandemic, roughly 11 out of every 100 people in Sweden have been diagnosed with COVID-19, compared with 9.4 out of every 100 in the UK and 7.4 per 100 in Italy. Sweden has also recorded around 145 COVID-19 deaths for every 100,000 people — around three times more than Denmark, eight times more than Finland, and nearly 10 times more than Norway.

Note the sleight of hand used here. In one sentence, the comparison focuses on diagnoses compared to the UK and Italy. This is surely because actual deaths from covid are fewer per million in Sweden than in either of the UK or Italy. Indeed, the author with this comparison only succeeds in showing us that covid is less fatal in Sweden where there are more cases but fewer deaths. The author then quickly changes the subject to comparisons in deaths so as to make sure Sweden compares unfavorably to Denmark, Finland, and Norway.

These claims are becoming increasingly desperate, since in terms of excess deaths Sweden is better off than most of Europe overall, and also better off than most other northern European countries. (And much better than southern European countries.) Moreover, “excess mortality” is a better measure of deaths in a given country since it provides a broader view of the actual effects of both covid and covid policy

Certainly, one can find some European regimes that had fewer deaths proportionally. Norway, Denmark, and Finland have remarkably low numbers of covid deaths compared to all of Europe.

But this fails to explain why Sweden’s non-bloodbath compares favorably to most EU member states, including France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and others. 

For example, as of late August, excess mortality in Sweden was approximately 785 per million people. In France, the total is 988 per million, and in Spain, it is 1,917 per million. In EU nonmember the United Kingdom, the total is 1,657 per million. 

This trend was already becoming apparent months ago, and in March Reuters reported,

Sweden had 7.7% more deaths in 2020 than its average for the preceding four years. Countries that opted for several periods of strict lockdowns, such as Spain and Belgium, had so-called excess mortality of 18.1% and 16.2% respectively…. Twenty-one of the 30 countries with available statistics had higher excess mortality than Sweden.

Other data, also according to Reuters, “which included an adjustment to account for differences in both the age structures and seasonal mortality patterns of countries analysed,” Placed Sweden at eighteenth out of twenty-six in terms of mortality. The “highest” ranked—that is, the worst ranked—were Poland, Spain, and Belgium. 

Another way of comparing Sweden to the rest of Europe is to look at excess mortality in 2020 and 2021 compared to “average monthly deaths” from 2016 to 2019.

In the time since February 2020, total deaths (measured as a percentage of the 2016–19 average) were lower in Sweden than in the “EU 27” in fourteen out of eighteen months. 

Granting that Denmark, Norway, and Finland all compare favorably against Sweden, most other European countries can’t boast of such things.

Compared to France, Sweden’s excess monthly deaths were lower in thirteen out of eighteen months in that period. Comparisons were similar when looking at the Netherlands, Spain, and Italy. Indeed, among Europe’s large nations, only Germany fares better than Sweden. 

So, yes, if we insist on cherry-picking exactly three countries to which to compare Sweden—i.e., Finland, Denmark, and Norway—Sweden looks like some kind of outlier. But with most other countries in Europe, plus the UK, Sweden compares well. Moreover, even if Sweden were only “about the same” as other European countries, this would still contradict the prophecies of doom handed down by the public health technocrats. 

None of this “proves” of course that Sweden adopted the ideal response to the spread of disease. But at the very least, the Sweden experience betrays the solemn predictions of so many health “experts” who predicted total disaster for Sweden. Moreover, even if Sweden did have worse outcomes than most of Europe, that would not justify the widespread destruction of human rights necessary to force people into lockdowns, unemployment, and social isolation. The utilitarian approach is a road to untrammeled state power. But even the utilitarian approach doesn’t work for the lockdown advocates who fail even by their own metric

END

The crooks (Merck) charging 40 x what it costs to make a Gov’t financed methylated Ivermectin

(zerohedge)

Merck Charging US 40 Times What It Costs To Make Govt-Financed COVID Pill

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 07:00 AM

Merck’s new ‘not Ivermectin’ Covid-19 treatment, molnupiravir, costs $17.74 to produce – yet the company is charging the US government $712 for the treatment – a 40x markup, according to The Intercept, citing a report issued last week by the Harvard School of Public Health and King’s College Hospital in London.

 

Molnupiravir pill from Merck. Photo: Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp.

The pill, originally developed using US government funds as a possible treatment for Venezuelan equine encephalitis, cut the risk of hospitalization and death in half in a randomized trial of 775 adults with mild/moderate Covid who were considered at high risk for disease due to comorbidities such as obesity, diabetes and heart disease. The trial was stopped early so the company could apply for and emergency use authorization (EUA). The drug did not benefit patients who were already hospitalized with severe disease.

News of the oral ‘wonder drug’ sent shares of Merck higher last week, as the company says it can deliver 10MM doses by the end of the year.

Clearly, the pill could bring in massive profits to Merck and its partner on the drug, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics – which licensed the drug from Emory University in 2020 and then sold the worldwide rights to the drug to Merck for a sum which has not been disclosed.

Meanwhile, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, a division of the Department of Defense, funded development of the drug by Emory University to the tune of $10 million between 2013 and 2015, according to nonprofit group Knowledge Ecology International discovered.

Yet, as Quartz points out, only Merck and Ridgeback will profit from the new antiviral – which they say “could be one of the most lucrative drugs ever,” bringing in as much as $7 billion by the end of this year alone.

Despite its initial investment, the U.S. government seems to be facing a steep markup in prices. In June, the government signed a $1.2 billion contract with Merck to supply 1.7 million courses of the medication at the $712 price. The transaction is due to take place as soon as molnupiravir receives emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration.

Good government advocates are pointing out that because federal agencies spent at least $29 million on the drug’s development, the government has the obligation to ensure that the medicine is affordable. “The public funded this drug, and therefore the public has some rights, including the rights you have it available under reasonable terms,” said Luis Gil Abinader, senior researcher at Knowledge Ecology International. -The Intercept

Pushing back

Ridgeback co-founder Wendy Holman told CNBC in an interview last week that they asked for, but “never got government funding” for the manufacture of molnupiravir. The company also claimed in a press release touting the study that “since licensed by Ridgeback, all funds used for the development of molnupiravir have been provided by Merck and by Wayne and Wendy Holman of Ridgeback.”

Critics, meanwhile, say the $700+ price point is absurd – with health advocates concerned that people some countries will not be able to afford the new drug.

“Offering someone a $700 treatment when they don’t yet feel that ill is going to mean that a lot of people are not going to take it,” said King’s College Hospital physician Dzintars Gotham, co-author of the report – which suggests that Merck would still reap a 10% profit margin if they priced molnupiravir at $19.99.

“If you can’t afford medicine because it’s 1,000 times more than you can afford, or because it’s 100 times more than you can afford, it doesn’t matter,” said Melissa Barber, a doctoral candidate at the Harvard School of Public Health and co-author of the report on molnupiravir, adding “those are both bad.”

Barber and Gotham acknowledge that the $17.74 cost of producing a five-day course of the antiviral pills is an estimate but said that the algorithm they used, and have employed to estimate the production costs for hundreds of drugs, tends to result in overestimates in the long run.

Meanwhile, the prices that private companies charge for drugs tend to go up rather than down. “For all these deals that have happened for therapeutics or vaccines, the price has only increased as uncertainty has decreased,” she said. “One price is given and then, for the next sale, the price goes up. The price went up for other drugs and vaccines, so I would be very surprised if this price didn’t go up, too.” -The Intercept

If only there were another option for mild-moderate Covid-19 cases that was inexpensive and used around the world for decades with an extremely positive drug safety profile.

We’re just going to leave this here (as we noted last month):

Widely prescribed anti-parasitic Ivermectin (also made by Merck) has shown massive efficacy worldwide in the treatment of mild and moderate cases of Covid-19, plus as a prophylactic. India’s Uttar Pradesh province, with a population of over 200 million, says that widespread early use of Ivermectin ‘helped keep positivity [and] deaths low.’

 

(source, May 12th)

Separately, there have been several studies funded by the Indian government, primarily conducted through their largest govt. public medical university (AIIMS).

  • Role of ivermectin in the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers in India: A matched case-control study (source)

Conclusion: Two-dose ivermectin prophylaxis at a dose of 300 μg/kg with a gap of 72 hours was associated with a 73% reduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers for the following month.

  • Ivermectin as a potential treatment for mild to moderate COVID-19 – A double blind randomized placebo-controlled trial (source)

Conclusion: There was no difference in the primary outcome i.e. negative RT-PCR status on day 6 of admission with the use of ivermectin. However, a significantly higher proportion of patients were discharged alive from the hospital when they received ivermectin.

  • Clinical Research Report Ivermectin in combination with doxycycline for treating COVID-19 symptoms: a randomized trial (source, double-blind randomized, peer-reviewed)

Discussion: In the present study, patients with mild or moderate COVID-19 infection treated with ivermectin in combination with doxycycline generally recovered 2 days earlier than those treated with placebo. The proportion of patients responding within 7 days of treatment was significantly higher in the treatment group than in the placebo group. The proportions of patients who remained symptomatic after 12 days of illness and who experienced disease progression were significantly lower in the treatment group than in the placebo group.

Here are more human studies from other countries on the ‘horse dewormer’:
 
Peru:
  • Sharp Reductions in COVID-19 Case Fatalities and Excess Deaths in Peru in Close Time Conjunction, State-By-State, with Ivermectin Treatments (source, peer-reviewed, University of Toronto, Universidad EAFIT)

For the 24 states with early IVM treatment (and Lima), excess deaths dropped 59% (25%) at +30 days and 75% (25%) at +45 days after day of peak deaths. Case fatalities likewise dropped sharply in all states but Lima

Spain:
  • The effect of early treatment with ivermectin on viral load, symptoms and humoral response in patients with non-severe COVID-19: A pilot, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial (sourceUniversity of Barcelona, peer-reviewed)

FindingsPatients in the ivermectin group recovered earlier from hyposmia/anosmia (76 vs 158 patient-days; p < 0.001).

Bengladesh:

 

  • A Comparative Study on Ivermectin-Doxycycline and Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin Therapy on COVID-19 Patients (source – peer reviewed, though not govt funded)

Conclusion: According  to  our  study,  the  Ivermectin-Doxycycline combination therapy has better symptomatic relief, shortened recovery duration, fewer adverse effects, and superior patient compliance compared to the Hydroxychloroquine-Azithromycin combination. Based on this  study’s  outcomes,  the  Ivermectin-Doxycycline  combination  is  a  superior  choice  for  treating  patients  with  mild to moderate COVID-19 disease.

  • A five-day course of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19 may reduce the duration of illness (source, peer-reviewed double blind randomized, though small sample size)

DiscussionA 5-day course of ivermectin resulted in an earlier clearance of the virus compared to placebo (p = 0.005), thus indicating that early intervention with this agent may limit viral replication within the host. In the 5-day ivermectin group, there was a significant drop in CRP and LDH by day 7, which are indicators of disease severity.

Meanwhile, There are currently 76 ongoing or completed clinical trials on Ivermectin around the world. Below are the results of 32 which have been completed. One can visit ivermeta.com and dig down on any of these / read the entire study. The site recommends Ivermectin in conjunction with vaccines to confer the best protection against Covid-19, however we’ll leave that to you and your doctor to discuss.

 

Screenshot, http://ivermeta.com/

Perhaps those who can’t pony up $700 will seek other options.

END

Jerusalem post…

(special thanks to Chris Powell for sending this to us)

 

Aspirin lowers risk of COVID: New findings support preliminary Israeli trial

The treatment reduced the risk of reaching mechanical ventilation by 44%. ICU admissions were lower by 43%, and an overall in-hospital mortality saw a 47% decrease.

 Shaare Zedek hospital team members wearing safety gear work in the Coronavirus ward of Shaare Zedek hospital in Jerusalem on September 23, 2021.  (photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)
Shaare Zedek hospital team members wearing safety gear work in the Coronavirus ward of Shaare Zedek hospital in Jerusalem on September 23, 2021.
(photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)
 
Over-the-counter aspirin could protect the lungs of COVID-19 patients and minimize the need for mechanical ventilation, according to new research at the George Washington University.
 
The team investigated more than 400 COVID patients from hospitals across the United States who take aspirin unrelated to their COVID disease, and found that the treatment reduced the risk of several parameters by almost half: reaching mechanical ventilation by 44%, ICU admissions by 43%, and overall in-hospital mortality by 47%.
 
“As we learned about the connection between blood clots and COVID-19, we knew that aspirin – used to prevent stroke and heart attack – could be important for COVID-19 patients,” said Dr. Jonathan Chow of the study team. “Our research found an association between low-dose aspirin and decreased severity of COVID-19 and death
 
 
end
SPECIAL THANKS TO ROBERT H FOR THIS:
 

IVERMECTIN – The COVID Blog

 
 
 
 
END
 
GLOBAL ISSUES
 
END
 
LA PALMA VOLCANO ERUPTION

Looks like another goalie sized vent has opened near the coast

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video A huge cloud of smoke comes out of the ground. What is it? You have to see that. No Clickbait!!!
 
END

Lot’s of earthquakes as lava flows 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video Drone video of La Palma volcano erupting to form new headlands
 
Michael Every on the major topics of the day
 
Michael Every…..
a good one!

Rabobank: The Surge In Commodity Prices Is Not Led By Bullishness, But By Panic

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 10:45 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Blessed are the cheese-makers?

Bloomberg markets informs me this morning that “inflation, not stagflation” is back. As they put it: stocks went up again yesterday to match bond yields; both energy and broader commodities are spiking; and the US ISM services PMI was firm at 61.9, with prices paid at 77.5. To be honest, that view is similar to the one you get from the back of a large crowd when you can’t actually see or hear the speaker properly: (“Speak up!”)

Market were likewise optimistic because Senator “Stonewall” Manchin –who is not the one to focus on, Senator “Bathroom” Sinema is– allegedly said: “I’m not going to rule things out” vis-à-vis the $3.5trn reconciliation package, suggesting the fiscal logjam can be broken and the debt ceiling dealt with. Except, as @lindsaywise tweets, the Hill journalist pool consensus is that he actually said “I’m not going to say anything about it.” Our hi-tech 24/7 global markets are the “Blessed are the cheese-makers” Python skit. Also note the content of the $3.5trn bill (green, Hyde amendment) is as divisive as the price-tag. Moreover, Republicans are united in blocking a debt-ceiling increase with a Senate filibuster because this forces the Democrats to use reconciliation to pass it, using up ammunition that cannot then be steered to Progressive-favoured spending. So, will the Greek inherit the earth? (“Oh, it’s the meek! Blessed are the meek! Oh, that’s nice, isn’t it? I’m glad they’re getting something, ’cause they have a hell of a time.”)

More broadly, the surge in commodity prices we are seeing is not led by bullishness, but by panic as energy prices spike and supply chains threaten to collapse. In China –despite a national holiday– the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has asked relevant lenders to safeguard the “reasonable financing needs” of coal mining, power, iron, and steel, and to “do everything possible” to increase support for securing supply, stabilizing commodity prices, safeguarding people’s basic livelihoods, and a “smooth operation of the economy”. This includes loan extensions with “controllable risks”, increasing regulatory tolerance for non-performing loans, prohibiting loan withdrawal and cutting-off of credit, and preventing “campaign-styled” carbon reductions – with the exception of firms with overcapacity. Now combine this kitchen sink credit policy with “at any cost” energy imports.

Global firms are also responding to the energy surge and shipping-price spike by hoarding. What happens when stocks have been built up enough? Deflation. (And note the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker is already down to 1.3% q/q annualized while some expectations for China are flat GDP q/q). Let’s be clear, the structural change in shipping costs and physical unavailability of goods means supply-side inflation will stay high for a long time ahead, and stockpiling will be very difficult to do. But where we do see surges in purchases, it is this dynamic at play, not “inflation”.

The only way it is inflationary is if wages riseThis is happening in pockets as the labor market is restructured post-Covid. Yet even where the trend is most evident, in the post-Brexit UK, the government is presiding over what we dubbed last year as “central planning with no plan”. And there, as elsewhere, if central banks and governments stimulate again without new supply chains or energy sources we are just back to stagflation.

Talking of central bank stimulus, Senator Warren attacked the Fed again yesterday, saying FOMC Chair Powell has “failed as a leader” and that there are “legitimate questions about conflicts of interest and insider trading,” as a further Fed member was suggested to be involved. Regardless, President Biden has said that he has “confidence” in Powell. In British politics, that is usually a precursor to a ministerial resignation in order to spend more time with their family.

Meanwhile, market bullishness was also triggered by the SEC’s Gensler saying he won’t ban crypto, like China. (“Well, obviously, this is not meant to be taken literally. It refers to any manufacturers of dairy products.”) No, the SEC won’t ban it: they will just regulate and tax it, so the market serves state power. That’s how you deal with what billionaire Ken Griffin calls a “jihadist call” against the US dollar.

The RBNZ, as expected, today took the decision to hike rates 25bp to 0.50% despite a large slice of the economy being in lockdown, and its largest trading partner being in energy meltdown (and a Common Prosperity crackdown and a property break-down). It noted: “Headline CPI inflation is expected to increase above 4% in the near term before returning towards the 2% midpoint over the medium term. The near-term rise in inflation is accentuated by higher oil prices, rising transport costs and the impact of supply shortfalls. These immediate relative price shocks risk leading to more generalised price rises. At this time, measures of core inflation and medium-term inflation expectations remain close to 2%. The Committee noted that further removal of monetary policy stimulus is expected over time, with future moves contingent on the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment.” The Bank also added that the “level of house prices is unsustainable” – implying more tightening or macro-prudential measures to deal with it, or just a warning of a crash? Let’s now watch how raising rates against a massive supply-shock works out for a trade-and-housing dependent economy with low unemployment and a backdrop of fiscal stimulus. Blessed are the manufacturers of dairy products, or not?

Geopolitically, today sees the first of what are likely to be fruitless rounds of US-China security pow-wows, this one in Switzerland. That is as: the US bans the export of some nuclear materials to China; the Biden administration reveals how many nukes it has –less than thought– removing strategic ambiguity (why not their locations too?); John Kerry suggests President Biden was unaware of either the AUKUS deal or the fall-out with France; the CIA admits dozens of its operatives around the world have been killed of late; and Taiwan’s president writes a pleading letter to the world in Foreign Affairs. You know, a normal day in modern markets.

Moreover, Poland has agreed to buy US F-35 jets, suggesting integration into the US (and UK) defense umbrella, as well as its separate move towards US LNG networks over Russian – autonomia strategiczna. That leaves any potential EU army in “the year of defense” that is 2022 looking very French, when all the financial muscle is German. If national-security muscle is going to mean more realpolitik control over purse strings ahead, and “they shall beat their ploughshares into swords, and their pruning hooks into spears”, will the EU’s top cheese-makers be blessed and inherit the earth?

end 

7. OIL ISSUES

WTI Holds Losses After Surprise Crude, Gasoline Inventory Builds

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 10:35 AM

Oil prices are tumbling this morning, pressured by the broad weakness in stocks, a surprise build in crude stocks reported by API, and some positive headlines from Putin over the EU gas situation which may remove some upward pressure on oil prices from rotation.

Jeffrey Halley, analyst at brokerage OANDA, said both crude contracts looked overbought based on a widely followed technical indicator, the relative strength index.

“That may signal some daily pullbacks this week but does not change the underlying bullish case for oil,” he said.

Some downward pressure came from the API’s figures showing signs of slowing fuel demand and all eyes are on the official data to see if that is confirmed.

API

  • Crude +951k (-300k exp)

  • Cushing +1.999mm

  • Gasoline +3.682mm

  • Distillates +345k

DOE

  • Crude +2.345mm (-300k exp)

  • Cushing  +1.548mm

  • Gasoline +3.256mm

  • Distillates -396k

Official DOE data showed a big crude build last week, confirming API’s data, for the second straight week of rising inventories – not what the market expected from ‘recovery’. Gasoline stocks also jumped higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude production is rebounding finally from Hurricane Ida’s impact, though remains below pre-Ida levels…

Source: Bloomberg

After almost tagging $80 overnight, WTI was trading around $77.50 ahead of the official DOE data and held those losses after the crude/gasoline builds…

Bloomberg Intelligence Energy Analyst Fernando Valle lays out the environment: The energy crisis in Europe and China is sparking optimism across the oil and gas value chain. Crack spreads and oil prices are both up sharply, even after the increase in inventories for the period ended Sept. 24. Natural gas has seen the largest gains, which may help gas-to-diesel switching if there’s a cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Still, higher oil prices and ongoing issues in China may hurt consumption in coming months, especially if inflation of other commodities remains a drag on disposable income. Refinery utilization may not see another large boost as operators start maintenance season, delayed after Hurricane Ida. Shell’s Norco plant, which has been offline since the storm, is expected to restart by mid-October and reach capacity within a month.

end

Oil Extends Losses As White House Considers Releasing Emergency Reserves, Ban Exports

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 02:25 PM

WTI Crude prices have tumbled from almost $79.50 overnight to barely above $77 as inventories were seen rising for the second week, Russian President Vladimir Puttin offered to placate Europe’s natural gas pain (removing a pillar of support for oil from gas-to-crude rotation), and now The FT reports that US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm has raised the prospect of releasing crude oil from the government’s strategic petroleum reserve, declaring that “all tools are on the table” as the Biden administration confronts a politically perilous surge in the price of gasoline.

“It’s a tool that’s under consideration,” Granholm said of a release of crude supplies from the national strategic petroleum reserve, which analysts say could calm oil markets and bring prices down.

“SPR [releases] came on the table a nanosecond after Jake Sullivan was rebuffed in Riyadh and the administration realised shale producers wouldn’t be able to increase production quickly enough,” said Bob McNally, head of Rapidan Energy Group and a former adviser to the George W Bush White House.

Granholm also did not rule out a ban on crude oil exports.

“That’s a tool that we have not used, but it is a tool as well,” she told the FT Energy Transition Strategies Summit on Wednesday.

WTI extended its losses on this latest news…

The last big release was in 2011, when the Obama administration worked with other International Energy Agency members to tap emergency stocks to bring down soaring prices. Congress has also authorised periodic sales to raise government revenue.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

Another study showing that lockdowns do no good

(John Adams)

Norway proves Doherty Institute Modelling Wrong

 
 
Dear all, 
 
I would like to bring to your attention a breaking story as published last night by news.com.au. See the following link:
 
 
The article by Australian Journalist Ben Graham details how COVID-19 cases have fallen dramatically in Norway since all COVID-19 restrictions were removed approximately 3 weeks ago. During this period, COVID-19 cases have remarkably fallen by over 40%.
 
This claim can be verified if one looks at the John Hopkins COVID-19 data.
 
Important to note that if one considers the “Our World in Data” Series, one can see that during the last 3 weeks testing for COVID-19 in Norway has reduced. Despite this however, the percentage of positive cases from those tested has remained stable at 4.8%. Thus, the opening up of Norway has not resulted in an explosion of COVID-19 cases. 
 
Moreover, even though the percentage of fully vaccinated people in Norway is 68% (for adults it is above 80% double dose), COVID-19 hospitalisation rates have not risen, but remained stable.
 
We know from data in Israel and Singapore where despite some of the highest rates of COVID-19 vaccine coverage in the world, COVID-19 cases and hospitalisation have recently exploded and thus high vaccine coverage cannot explain the phenomenon in Norway.
 
This outcome is in sharp contrast to what Prime Minister Morrison, Former Premier Berejiklian and Premier Andrews have been telling the public based on the modelling from the Doherty Institute which is the basis of the “National Plan” as endorsed by the National Cabinet. 
 
In my home state of NSW, Former Premier Berejiklian, Minister Hazzard and Dr Kerry Chant have been warning for weeks that opening up NSW will result in an explosion of cases, hospitalisation and ICU admissions based on community person-to-person transmission. This we have been told will result in the NSW hospital system being overwhelmed.
 
The new data from Norway demonstrates that the infection model which has been promoted by conventional Australian scientists and which has been the centre of public health policy in Australia has been categorically debunked.  
 
Again in NSW, we have seen daily COVID-19 cases fall by 62% in the past 3 weeks from the peak of 1599 daily cases. Former Premier Berejiklian admitted last week that hospitalisation and ICU rates in NSW were below the expected usage rate as suggested by the NSW Government’s own modelling.  
 
Interestingly, Dr Kerry Chant was asked at a press conference this past weekend whether she still expects for COVID-19 cases, hospitalisation and ICU rates to explode in NSW once we open up on 11 October 2021. She refused to answer the question directly.
 
Based on the Norway data, don’t be surprised if COVID-19 hospitalisation and ICU rates in NSW remain stable or even fall in the coming weeks once the state opens up. If this does occur, the bulk of the Australian scientific and medical community will have egg over their face and the untold economic, psychological and social damage from the current lockdown/vaccination policies will have been based on erroneous and misguided scientific modelling.  
 
We are only weeks away from seeing whether the response to COVID-19 in Australia is the greatest public policy disaster since the Gallipoli Campaign of 1915. 
 


yours faithfully,

 

John Adams

Principal Economic Analyst
Adams Economics
END

AUSTRALIA

end

Good question: why are people dying after getting the Covid vaccine?

Now some pathologists have answers and this is a must view…

(zerohedge|)

Why are people dying after getting the Covid vaccine? Pathologists now have answers.

END

Another must view: the real numbers from Australia

This is a must view!!
The real numbers from AUSTRALIA
 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video Australian Officials reveal the unthinkable amongst those vaccinated.

 

end

Australians Being Mandated To Provide Police With Geo-Trackable Selfies To Prove They’re Quarantining

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 11:59 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

In a move that again highlights how far toward a complete tyranny Australia has become in the wake of COVID, citizens are being mandated to provide geo-trackable selfies to police to prove they are staying at home.

A report from 9 News in Australia details how people in Victoria are now required to respond to the authorities within 5 minutes of them randomly calling by sending a selfie of themselves at home. If they fail to respond, health goons are sent to their address to dish out punishments.

The reporter notes “Today the call has gone out to everyone in home quarantine in Victoria to take part in a pilot program. And what that means is they will receive random phone calls and they will have to answer within five minutes with a selfie sent to an app which will then geo-track where that person is and to make sure they are who they say they are as well.”

“If they don’t answer within the five minutes that’s when health ministers come knocking,” the reporter creepily adds.

Watch:

 

Reuters reported on the scheme earlier this month, noting that it is being trialed in “New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria, home to Sydney, Melbourne and more than half of Australia’s 25 million population.”

The technology involved uses facial recognition, but health authorities have refused to comment on the scheme.

Reuters notes that “Under the system being trialed, people respond to random check-in requests by taking a ‘selfie’ at their designated home quarantine address. If the software, which also collects location data, does not verify the image against a “facial signature”, police may follow up with a visit to the location to confirm the person’s whereabouts.”

It is something that was previously suggested for use in Britain, but was abandoned over fears of privacy invasion.

A literal government surveillance mandate.

Australia is gone.

 END

Euro/USA 1.1550 DOWN .0056 /EUROPE BOURSES /ALL RED

USA/ YEN 111.41  DOWN  0.075 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3564  DOWN   0.0062 

 

USA/CAN 1.2639  UP .0056  (  CDN DOLLAR DOWN 56 BASIS PTS )

 

Early WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro IS DOWN BY 56 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1540 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 137.66 PTS OR 0.57% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.53% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED

 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL RED

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED DOWN 137.66 pts or 0.57% 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.53%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 295.25 PTS OR 1.05% 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1755.40

silver:$22.35-

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.551% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.113 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 94.37 UP 39  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.36%  UP 0  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0085% UP 3 full   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.46%//  UP 0  in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.89  UP 3    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 43 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.181% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.05% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR  WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1537  DOWN    0.0058 or 58 basis points

USA/Japan: 111.34  DOWN .147 OR YEN UP 15  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3554 DOWN .0071// DOWN 71   BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN  54 basis points to 1.2637

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED XX)..  

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.4635

TURKISH LIRA:  8.89  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.075%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.512 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.062 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.40 UP 40  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 83.59 PTS OR 1.18% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 235.49 PTS OR 1.55% 

 

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 87.19  PTS OR  1.33% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  DOWN 149.50  PTS OR  1.67%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 338.48 PTS OR 1.30% 

 

WTI Oil price; 77.55 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 80.97 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    72.48  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.16 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 16 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.181 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 77.07//

BRENT :  80.77

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.529.. UP 0 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.082 DOWN 2  basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1557 DOWN 0.0038   ( 38 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.42 DOWN .070 ( YEN UP 7 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.22  UP 24  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA: 1.3587 DOWN .0038  

the Turkish lira close: 8.88  DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//EXTREMELY DEADLY

the Russian rouble 72,42  DOWN .09  Roubles against the uSA dollar. (DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2588 DOWN 4 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.181%

The Dow closed UP 102.32.75 POINTS OR 0.30%

NASDAQ closed UP 68.08 POINTS OR 0.47%

VOLATILITY INDEX:  21.09 CLOSED DOWN 0.21

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.124

%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Big-Tech & Bitcoin Jump, Bill-Yields & Black Gold Dump After Vlad & Mitch Save The World

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 04:00 PM

Putin (offering to placate EU’s gas needs) and McConnell (offering a short-term debt limit extension) saved the world today. Is anyone really surprised?

Putin’s comments sent NatGas prices plunging (after EU Nattie spiked a stunning 40% today)…

Which helped send oil prices lower…

And McConnell’s statement sparked a big tumble in T-Bill yields…

Source: Bloomberg

With the curve’s kink flattening dramatically (but notice a small kink is appearing mid-December)…

Source: Bloomberg

Weakness overnight (selling wave hit as Japan opened and as Europe opened) and chaotic gamma-driven swings at the US cash open and then McConnell’s statement sparked a big rip in stocks with the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all back into green (until Senator Hirono called McConnell’s deal “bullshit”). Small Caps never made it back to green and had an ugly day overall…

The S&P’s bounce was extremely technical and only managed to get it back to its 100DMA (but no higher)…

Treasury yields were very mixed with the short-end higher (3Y +2bps) and the long-end lower (30Y -2bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields ran the stops at last week’s highs before tumbling back lower…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the day higher but reversed lower almost too perfectly off last week’s highs as US markets opened and slid all day…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos exploded higher also – following more positive comments from SEC’s Gensler. Bitcoin hit $55,500….

Source: Bloomberg

And Ethereum ramped back to its mid-September highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Away from Crude and Nattie, Gold managed some gains today as the dollar dived…

 

 

Finally, it does not appear things are working out for Mr.Biden…

Source: Bloomberg

And then there’s this… USA Sovereign risk is more than double that of China’s…

Source: Bloomberg

But, in case you thought it was over in China, think again – nothing is fixed at all…

Source: Bloomberg

i) MORNING TRADING

 

end

ii)  USA///INFLATION WATCH//SUPPLY ISSUES

Over 1000 Kellogg USA cereal plant workers go on strike over cut to benefits  (huge premiums for health) and pay

Over 1,000 Kellogg’s US Cereal Plant Workers Go On Strike Over Cut To Benefits And Pay

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 09:35 AM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Over 1,000 Kellogg’s cereal employees went on strike for more than 18 hours at various plants across the United States on Oct. 5, amid failed negotiations over the payment and benefits terms of a new contract for workers.

The food manufacturing company has been at loggerheads with union members for more than a year over over a dispute involving a cut to pay and benefits such as premium health care, holiday and vacation pay, and reduced retirement benefits.

The company’s existing contract with employees expired at midnight on Monday.

Workers walked out of plants on Tuesday morning and began marching outside, many of them brandishing signs reading “fighting corporate greed” and “support essential workers.” An angry-looking mascot of Kellogg’s Tony the Tiger was also paraded by employees on strike.

Roughly 1,400 Kellogg’s cereal plant employees went on strike across across Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee over the wage disparities.

Anthony Shelton, president of Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers, and Grain Millers International Union, said Kellogg’s has threatened to send additional jobs to Mexico if workers do not accept its new proposals.

“A lot of Americans probably don’t have too much issue with the Nike or Under Armor hats being made elsewhere or even our vehicles, but when they start manufacturing our food down where they are out of the FDA control and OSHA control, I have a huge problem with that,” Daniel Osborn, president of the local union in Omaha told NPR.

Osborn said workers plan to continue the strike, which had already been going on for more than 18 hours, noting that “the company has a pretty good idea on how long they are willing to hold out and we are going to stand fast as long as we have to.”

Kerry Williams, the union president at Landisville, Lancaster County, said workers want to “obtain fair and equal contracts for all.”

“We worked through COVID for two years. We worked 24/7, 365 days a year. We’re doing a lot of forced overtime to meet the cereal demand, but the members are tired of being taken advantage of,” Williams told WGAL.

But Kellogg’s, which brings in about a third of its sales from cereals, believes its compensation and benefits for U.S. cereal plant employees are fair.

We are disappointed by the union’s decision to strike. Kellogg provides compensation and benefits for our U.S. RTEC (ready to eat cereal) employees that are among the industry’s best. Our offer includes increases to pay and benefits for our employees, while helping us meet the challenges of the changing cereal business,” the company said in a statement.

“The majority of employees working under this Master Contract enjoy a CPG industry-leading level of pay and benefits, which include above-market wages and pension or 401k. The average 2020 earnings for the majority of RTEC employees was $120,000.”

Kellogg’s also said the majority of its workers have no-cost health insurance.

The company acknowledged that it is “implementing contingency plans” to limit supply disruptions for consumers, including internal and third-party resources.

Kellogg’s shares were down 0.86 percent on Wednesday amid the strike.

end

USA DATA

With all of the uSA mass firings jobs are gaining in the uSA.  These guys always message their numbers northbound.

(zerohedge)

ADP Signals Bigger Than Expected Jobs Gain In September

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 08:21 AM

While initial jobless claims have been rising recently (dominated by California), analysts still expected ADP to show a pick up in new jobs to 430k (from 374k in August), and it did, smashing expectations with a 568k increase (after August’s print was revised down from +374k to +340k).

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest increase since June as we note this is happening as pandemic emergency benefits are removed from Americans.

Jobs rose in every industry and across every size cohort with Services jobs dominating once again…

Good-Producing jobs rose by 102k – the biggest monthly jump since September 2020…

The data come ahead of Friday’s monthly employment report from the Labor Department, which is currently forecast to show the U.S. added 450,000 private payrolls in September.

“The labor market recovery continues to make progress despite a marked slowdown from the 748,000 job pace in the second quarter,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

Leisure and hospitality remains one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, yet hiring is still heavily impacted by the trajectory of the pandemic, especially for small firms. Current bottlenecks in hiring should fade as the health conditions tied to the COVID-19 variant continue to improve, setting the stage for solid job gains in the coming months. “

This all suggests the taper is still on.

end

IMPORTANT USA/CONTAINER LOGJAMS//shortages//inflation

 

b) USA COVID/VACCINE UPDATES//VACCINE MANDATES

Now that 100% at this large New York Health Care System is vaccinated, let us see what happens to these workers once the winter sets in

(Stieber/EpochTimes)

Large New York Health Care System Fires 1,400 Unvaccinated Workers

 
 
TUESDAY, OCT 05, 2021 – 06:45 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A large New York health care system on Monday said it fired 1,400 workers because they declined to get a COVID-19 vaccine.

Northwell Health terminated approximately 2 percent of its workforce, which spans across New York City, Westchester, and Long Island.

The workforce across the 23-hospital system is now 100 percent vaccinated, the system told news outlets in a statement.

“Northwell believes that having a fully vaccinated workforce is an important measure in our duty to protect the health and safety of our staff, our patients, and the communities we serve,” the health care system said. 

“This allows us to continue to provide exceptional care at all of our facilities, without interruption and remain open and fully operational.”

Northwell regrets losing any employee under such circumstances, but as health care professionals and members of the largest health care provider in the state, we understand our unique responsibility to protect the health of our patients and each other. We owe it to our staff, our patients, and the communities we serve to be 100 percent vaccinated against COVID-19,” it added.

A spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether any religious or medical exemptions were granted.

Madison Square Garden displays the Northwell Health Hope Tracker in New York City on April 25, 2020. (Jamie McCarthy/Getty Images)

Health care workers in New York were ordered by Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, to get a COVID-19 vaccine. A legal challenge was partially dismissed late last month except for those seeking a religious exemption. Additionally, President Joe Biden’s administration plans on releasing a new nationwide requirement for employers who have 100 or more workers to mandate a vaccine or weekly COVID-19 testing.

Thousands of unvaccinated health care workers were placed on unpaid leave last week due to Hochul’s mandate. The situation led to some disruptions. Strong Memorial Hospital, for instance, said it was pausing some elective procedures for two weeks.

Northwell workers fired because of their refusal to get vaccinated were being denied benefits like employer contributions to retirement plans, The Epoch Times previously reported.

John Trinchino, a registered nurse, told The New York Times he was fired from his job at Staten Island University Hospital, which is part of Northwell, last week.

Trinchino said he didn’t agree with the vaccine mandate because he had recovered from COVID-19. Studies show people who recover from the disease, which is caused by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, enjoy similar protection against later infection than those who are vaccinated.

“All this is going to lead to is worse care for the patients, and I’m just disgusted by it,” he said.

Northwell workers protested against the mandate on the day it went into effect, arguing it violated people’s freedoms. [delete]

Karen Roses, a patient care technician at a Northwell hospital in Riverhead, New York, told The Epoch Times that she knew her refusal to get a vaccine could mean she loses her job, but said she’s “not going to be bullied or pressured [by] anybody for any reason.”

“It’s not an anti-vaccine statement. It’s a freedom of choice statement,” she said.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries/

Conflict Of Interest? AG Garland’s Family Getting Rich Selling Critical Race Theory Materials To Schools

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 09:59 AM

When it comes to conflicts of interest, Attorney General Merrick Garland appears to have a huge one.

Merrick’s daughter, Rebecca Garland, is married to the co-founder of an education resource company that pushes critical race theory – which angry parents across the country are protesting. Taking matters into his own hands, AG Garland tapped the FBI on Monday to huddle with local leaders to address a “disturbing spike in harassment, intimidation, and threats of violence” against teachers and school board members.

As the Conservative Treehouse writes:

Well, well, well… This is interesting.  U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland recently instructed the FBI to begin investigating parents who confront school board administrators over Critical Race Theory indoctrination material. The U.S. Department of Justice issued a memorandum to the FBI instructing them to initiate investigations of any parent attending a local school board meeting who might be viewed as confrontational, intimidating or harassing.

Attorney General Merrick Garland’s daughter is Rebecca Garland.  In 2018 Rebecca Garland married Xan Tanner [LINK].  Mr. Xan Tanner is the current co-founder of a controversial education service company called Panorama Education. [LINK and LINK]  Panorama Education is the “social learning” resource material provider to school districts and teachers that teach Critical Race Theory.

Conflict of interest much?

Yes, the Attorney General is instructing the FBI to investigate parents who might pose a financial threat to the business of his daughter’s husband.

Screen-grabs and citations below:

 

(New York Times LINK)

 

END

Florida Gov. promises to defend parents at school board meetings

(Philips/EpochTimes)  

Florida Gov. DeSantis Promises To Defend Parents At School Board Meetings Against DOJ

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 02:07 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Following a Department of Justice announcement Monday that it would direct the FBI to mobilize against parents who allegedly threaten teachers and school board members, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis promised that the state would defend parents amid GOP outcry against the move.

“Attorney General Garland is weaponizing the DOJ by using the FBI to pursue concerned parents and silence them through intimidation,” DeSantis wrote.

“Florida will defend the free speech rights of its citizens and will not allow federal agents to squelch dissent.”

The Justice Department stated that it would create a task force to see how the federal government can be used to prosecute any criminal conduct toward teachers or how to assist state and local authorities investigate such threats. It came after a national association of school boards asked the Biden administration to use “extraordinary measures” to prevent alleged threats against school board staff, accusing parents who oppose teaching critical race theory and mask mandates of lodging them.

DeSantis’s office on Tuesday released a statement saying Florida law already prohibits harassment of teachers, while adding that Florida law enforcement  is “perfectly capable of responding to crimes in Florida, and we have never heard the FBI suggest otherwise.”

“However, disagreement is not harassment. Protest is not terrorism, unless it involves rioting, looting, and assault, like some of the left-wing protests of summer 2020. Again, all of those actions are crimes in Florida and will be prosecuted, regardless of political context,” the statement added.

According to the Justice Department, it will create a task force to determine how to use federal resources to prosecute offending parents along with how to provide advice to states where no federal laws have been broken. Training will also be provided to school staff members on how to report threats from parents.

During school board meetings across the United States over the past several months, heated discussions have been held by parents, teachers, and school board staff on whether critical race theory or associated ideologies should be taught to children. The Department of Justice’s announcement did not elaborate on whether threats against teachers and staff are widespread.

This week, Republican lawmakers sharply criticized the Justice Department and Attorney General Merrick Garland’s directive, arguing the Biden administration is attempting to silence dissent.

“Your memorandum is a politically-motivated abuse of power and displays a lack of reasoned, sound judgment … confronting parents to oppose the views of the Biden administration and its socialist agenda,” wrote Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) in a letter to the agency.

“Parents are speaking out against Critical Race Theory in schools. Now the Biden administration is cracking down on dissent,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) wrote on Twitter.

END

Manchin Digs In – Won’t Budge On $1.5 Trillion Top-Line, Says No To Filibuster Carve-Out For Debt Hike

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 12:08 PM

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) said on Wednesday that his topline number on the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill is still $1.5 trillion, dispelling rumors that he’d come up as much as $2.2 trillion.

He also reiterated his opposition to a legislative carve-out of the filibuster as a potential escape hatch from a fight over the national debt ceiling, according to The Hill.

“I’ve been very very clear where I stand on the filibuster. Nothing changes,” Manchin told reporters outside of his Senate office.

Manchin’s comments come as the idea of a “carve-out” from the legislative filibuster, which requires 60 votes for most legislation, has gained steam within the Senate Democratic caucus

Democrats discussed the idea, as well as other potential back-up plans, during a closed-door caucus lunch on Tuesday, with Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) confirming that talks were underway. 

But changing the legislative filibuster even just for a narrow carve-out on the debt ceiling was a heavy list for Senate Democrats given entrenched opposition to making changes to the 60-vote rule from Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). -The Hill

In order to raise the debt ceiling without the filibuster carve-out, Democrats would need complete unity from their 50-member Senate caucus. 

“The filibuster has nothing to do with debt ceiling. Basically, we have other tools that we can use and if we have to use them we should use them,” Manchin said on Monday.

The West Virginia Senator suggested on Wednesday that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) start negotiating.

“I truly implore both leaders … to engage, start working, work this out,” said Manchin, adding “We have a responsibility to be the adults… we should not have these artificial crises.”

“Please lead, lead, work together.”

Senate Democrats will hold an emergency caucus at 1pm this afternoon, according to Politico‘s Burgess Everett.

END

Goldman: McConnell’s Offer Is Unlikely To Be Attractive To Democrats

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 04:14 PM

Moments after the news hit that Top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell made a debt ceiling extension offer to the Democrats, we warned that the risk is that Dems throw up all over the symbolic fig leaf.

Not long after, Goldman’s top political strategist Alec Phillips published a note in which he confirmed the same, basically saying that McConnell’s offer is “unlikely to be attractive to Democrats.”

He explains why below:

Senate Minority Leader McConnell has released a statement that offers Democrats two things on the debt limit. First, unsurprisingly, he offers to expedite the reconciliation process to allow Democrats to increase the debt limit that way.  We had expected that if Democrats opted to use that process, it would occur close enough the deadline that both parties would agree to waive some of the usual time frames involved. 

The second part of Sen. McConnell’s offer is new, but is unlikely to be attractive to Democrats: “To protect the American people from a near-term Democrat-created crisis, we will also allow Democrats to use normal procedures to pass an emergency debt limit extension at a fixed dollar amount to cover current spending levels into December.” (emphasis ours).

This would mean that Democrats would need to vote twice to increase the debt limit. Once, in the next few days, to increase it by several hundred billion and then again in December to increase it further to carry the Treasury through 2022.  More specifically, it would mean that Democrats would have to vote for a debt limit of $29 trillion or so in the next few days, and then again for a debt limit of around $31 trillion in the next two months, at the same time they are trying to finalize their multi-trillion dollar fiscal package. From a political perspective, the only thing less attractive than voting to raise the debt limit to $31 trillion is voting to raise it to $29 trillion and then voting a second time to raise it to $31 trillion. 

It is possible that Democrats might take up this offer and that the Oct. 18 debt limit deadline will be pushed by a month or two.  That said, this should not be interpreted as a compromise and it might not change the situation. Instead, it might simply result in what had seemed like the most likely outcome all along, which is that Democrats use the reconciliation process to increase the debt limit just before the deadline after  they have exhausted all other options

end

Senator Cotton Warns Hundreds Of “Unknown Afghans” Escaping Into US From Military Bases

Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 04:50 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Senator Tom Cotton warned Monday that hundreds of unvetted and undocumented refugees rescued from Afghanistan are fleeing military bases within the U.S.

Cotton detailed the incidents in a letter to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, writing “it is alarming that hundreds of Afghan evacuees have reportedly left U.S. military bases directly into our communities, possibly before completing our vetting and immigration processes.”

Reuters picked up on the fact that that at least 700 Afghans have escaped U.S. bases in Wisconsin, Virginia, Texas, Indiana, New Mexico, and New Jersey.

The report notes that at Fort Bliss in El Paso, Texas, more than 300 Afghans have left since they started arriving a few weeks ago.

The Biden administration has outlined plans to bring at least 95,000 Afghans to the U.S., yet hundreds are being allowed to leave without completing the resettlement process.

“A more extensive review and vetting process is absolutely essential for the tens of thousands of unknown Afghans who were airlifted during the evacuation,” Cotton further wrote.

The Senator also documented several cases of criminal behaviour among the evacuees.

“The U.S. government is currently investigating multiple crimes committed in evacuee facilities,” Cotton wrote, adding “The American people have seen reports of a group of male Afghan evacuees assaulting a female servicemember at a Fort Bliss facility in New Mexico.

Cotton continued, “An Afghan evacuee allegedly sexually assaulted young boys at Fort McCoy in Wisconsin. Another Afghan evacuee reportedly choked his wife at Fort McCoy.”

The State Department has raised concerns about child trafficking by older Afghan men. Even previously-deported criminals — including an Afghan who had previously been convicted of rape in the United States, and another who had previously been convicted of aggravated robbery — were airlifted back to the United States,” Cotton added.

The Senator is asking for a response by the end of the week, while the Biden administration has refused to comment on details of the evacuees brought to the U.S. from Afghanistan.

end

King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

The King Report October 6, 2021 Issue 6606 Independent View of the News

  ESZs hit a low of 4269.00 at 21:19 ET.  They then rallied 27 handles by 23:00 ET.  Someone was saving stocks again.  ESZs and stocks were inert from the Nikkei’s 2nd Session until a rally developed at 5 ET.  It produced a modest gain.  ESZs and stocks then went inert again until they declined on the NYSE open.

However, once again someone rescued stocks by manipulating ESZs 58 handles from 9:34 ET until 11:00 ET.  This is pure, unbridled manipulation to save stocks.  At the time, bonds were down over 1 point, energy commodities were soaring.  Tech stocks and Fangs led the rally.  German breakevens (inflation expectations) hit the highest level (1.7%) since 2013.

ESZs and stocks traded sideways in a small range with lackluster action from 11:00 ET until stocks broke sharply lower 15 minutes before the close.  Astute traders recognized the determined intervention to save stocks.  They moved to the sidelines.  Long-time readers will recall that we often note this is how the forex market acts after an intervention.

@bespokeinvest: Four straight 1% moves for the S&P 500, and the net impact on the index has been a decline of 0.3%.  (The intervention is keeping stocks from tumbling!)

Natural gas was up 10.3% at 13:30 ET.  WTI Oil and gasoline registered +2.3% in the late morning.

PepsiCo’s CFO says the company will raise prices on some products to offset higher commodity and supply chain costs – Johnston said PepsiCo will also change the mix of products it sells in a bid to nudge shoppers toward more profitable items — like variety packs of Lay’s chips instead of larger bags…
https://t.co/GWwsvr4pRd

Biden hits road to sell America on $4.7T bills Dems won’t buy https://trib.al/RzX2BU8
President Biden will travel to Michigan on Tuesday to rally Americans to support the massive social and infrastructure spending packages that he has failed to sell to members of his own Democratic Party…

The Big Guy got incoherent in Michigan (Took no ?s).  https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1445478882346295301

6 Scandals the Media Won’t Tell You About Outgoing NIH Director Francis Collins.

  1. Francis Collins Advises Chinese Military Proxy-Linked Group Working Alongside COVID-19 Gene Storage Firm…
  2. Collins Admits Funding Wuhan Lab: ‘We Had No Control Over What They Were Doing.’…
  3. Fauci’s Bosses Signed Research Deals with Chinese Communist Military Front…
  4. U.S. Has Funded Over 250 Studies for Chinese Communist Military Researchers…
  5. America Has Given Millions for ‘Research’ at Chinese Communist-Run Facilities since COVID Outbreak…
  6. U.S. National Institutes of Health Fires 54 Researchers as Ongoing Investigation Reveals 93% Failed to Disclose Links to Chinese Communist Party…  https://t.co/slPts2pkwh

@PeterSweden7: One week after Denmark removed all restrictions, covid infections plummeted 40%One week after Norway removed all restrictions, covid infections plummeted 40%.  Why?
    @kylenabecker: America’s health “experts” don’t even bother trying to explain Covid anomalies.  No mask mandate correlation. Vaccine rates & case rates trending together. Lockdowns lifted & case rates plummet. Low vaccinated countries with low Delta rates.

@kylenabecker: Virus is going to go everywhere. Those that do a good job protecting elderly, at-risk get better health outcomes. Those that let natural immunity build by letting young weather Delta virus that is weaker than seasonal flu for them have better socio-economic outcomes. It’s simple.

@EricSpracklen: Chris Croce, @Pfizer Senior Associate Scientist: “You’re protected for longer” if you have natural COVID antibodies compared to the COVID vaccine.”
https://twitter.com/EricSpracklen/status/1445218083916992512

@tomselliott: Project Veritas’ exposé w/ Pfizer scientists admitting natural immunity affords better protection than their Covid vaccine is a much bigger story than the FB “whistleblower” — yet the media are burying the former story while hyping the latter.

Schumer sets U.S. debt ceiling vote for Wednesday as tensions rise http://reut.rs/3Bjyt32

@JavierBlas: EUROPEAN ENERGY CRUNCH: Five EU countries, including France and Spain, issue joint statement on surging energy prices. They ask for probe into the gas market; & perplexing comment about how to set power prices, with reference to “average” rather than “marginal” production costs.
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1445490206094753797/photo/1

NYT: Captured, Killed or Compromised: C.I.A. Admits to Losing Dozens of Informants
Counterintelligence officials said in a top secret cable to all stations and bases around the world that too many of the people it recruits from other countries to spy for the U.S. are being lost.
    The C.I.A.’s counterintelligence mission center had looked at dozens of cases in the last several years involving foreign informants who had been killed, arrested or most likely compromised…
    In recent years, adversarial intelligence services in countries such as Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan have been hunting down the C.I.A.’s sources and in some cases turning them into double agents…the memo outlining a specific number of informants arrested or killed by adversarial powers is an unusual level of detail, one that signals the importance of the current problems…
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/05/us/politics/cia-informants-killed-captured.html

 

The odds are extremely high that someone or more very high up in the US security apparatus is a mole.

John Kerry infers Biden is addled or his handlers keep him in the dark.

Kerry on Biden: He ‘Literally Had Not Been Aware of What Had Transpired’ on Submarine Deal
John Kerry helpfully explains that President Biden simply had no idea that the U.S.-U.K.-Australia deal on submarines would irk the French government, and “had not been aware of what had transpired.”…
    “He was he had not been aware of that, he literally, literally had not been aware of what had transpired. And I don’t want to go into the details of it…”
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/kerry-on-biden-he-literally-had-not-been-aware-of-what-had-transpired-on-submarine-deal/amp/

@MrAndyNgo: An activist advocating for illegal foreign nationals in the US confronts Sen. @kyrstensinema on a flight. She records the encounter in a selfie videohttps://t.co/71UXWVpDwY

Americans get arrested for threatening behavior on flights; but not a DACA harassing a senator?

Ex-SEAL @mchooyah: Someone is leaking senators’ itinerary. Which airline do you think it is?

GOP Rep @laurenboebert: If those girls who chased Senator Sinema had been Republicans, they’d likely be in solitary confinement right now. Two-tiered justice has gone on for too long.

Garland Directs FBI To Target Parents For ‘Harassment, Intimidation’ (How about Lil League?)

  • The Department of Justice’s memorandum did not specify what it classifies as a crime and did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for clarification…
  • Garland’s statement follows a letter from the National School Board Association (NSBA) that asked the federal government to get involved in the “immediate threat” of violence from parents faced by American public schools and its education officials. The NSBA said the incidents could be “the equivalent to a form of domestic terrorism and hate crimes.”…

https://dailycaller.com/2021/10/04/merrick-garland-directs-fbi-to-target-parents-responsible-for-disturbing-spike-in-harassment-intimidation-against-schools/

@realchrisrufo: The Biden administration is rapidly repurposing federal law enforcement to target political oppositionThey want to reclassify dissent as “disinformation” and “domestic terrorism,” justifying an unprecedented intervention, both directly and in partnership with tech companies.

GOP @RepDanBishop: Dem rioters and Antifa destroy cities and threaten to burn it all to the ground if Trump won, and @FBI Director Wray and AG Garland are silent.  But parents speaking up about their children being taught CRT poison? Label them “domestic terrorists.” Truly sickening.

GOP Sen Josh @HawleyMO: I just asked the Biden DOJ to name one instance in American history when the FBI has been directed to go after parents attending school board meetings to express their views. There isn’t one. Biden’s latest offensive against parents is shocking, unprecedented and wrong

@abigailmarone: @HawleyMO to Biden DOJ: You are attempting to intimidate [parents], you are attempting to silence them, you are attempting to interfere with their rights as parents, and yes, with their rights as voters.  This is wrong. This is dangerous… Practically every day brings new reports about this Administration weaponizing the federal bureaucracy to go after political opponents… For those of us who missed the McCarthy era, I guess this President is intent on bringing it to us.
https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1445424708485369857
    @HawleyMO: If this [Garland memo] isn’t a deliberate attempt to chill parents from showing up at school board meetings… I don’t know what is…You’re using the FBI to intervene in school board meetings.   https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1445423223122837510

Rep. Buck slams Garland for mobilizing FBI in defense of school boards: ‘Abuse of power’
Buck said the DOJ, FBI comparing parents to terrorists makes a ‘mockery’ of the institutions
   “With violent crime surging in every American city, Garland should focus on making our communities safer, instead of attacking parents’ constitutional rights,” Buck added… The letter calls Garland’s directive “a politically motivated abuse of power” that “displays a lack of reasoned, sound judgment” and says parental concern over what schools are teaching their children “does not give rise to federal crime.”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/buck-slams-garland-fbi-mobilization-parents

Sen. Tom Cotton condemns Biden administration for ‘sicking’ Feds on concerned parents: ‘Dangerous overreach’ – SEN.TOM COTTON: Every state has laws on the books for criminalizing violence or criminal threats. This is dangerous overreach by Biden administration to sick the Feds on parents who simply want to play a role in their kids’ education. Kyrsten Sinema had crazy liberals follow her into a bathroom to protest her. What was Joe Biden’s response to that?  He laughed at it and said it’s a part of the process. Yet, apparently parents going to a school board meeting to complain about what their kids are learning, or that they have to wear masks and are getting applause from their fellow parents makes them domestic terrorists for whom we should use the Patriot Act and sick the feds on them.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/tom-cotton-biden-sicking-feds-concerned-parents

GOP Sen @MarshaBlackburn: Under President Biden’s watch, the Department of Justice is making the FBI an enforcement arm for progressive policies and using federal law enforcement to intimidate concerned parents into silence.

DeSantis says AG Garland ‘weaponizing the DOJ’ against parents
“Attorney General Garland is weaponizing the DOJ by using the FBI to pursue concerned parents and silence them through intimidation,” the Republican governor tweeted. “Florida will defend the free speech rights of its citizens and will not allow federal agents to squelch dissent.“…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/desantis-ag-garland-weaponizing-doj-parents

Rep. Anthony Sabatini @AnthonySabatini: The DOJ has been fully weaponized and is now Biden’s chief force for domestic intimidation and terror.  Florida and other Red States must sever any/all ties with the FBI IMMEDIATELY and BAN all inter-agency agreements with our State or any law enforcement agency in our State NOW!  Then after this first step, every Red State must then pass a law to criminalize and eject any FBI agent acting pursuant to the CRT Order above who is within the State…

Still nothing from McConnell, Lindsay Graham, Romney, Murkowski, Collins, Grassley, and other GOP Establishment senators on Garland ‘sicking’ the FBI on parents.

(Manhattan GOP Chair) Andrea Catsimatidis @AJ_Cats_: The FBI raided the NYPD Sergeants Benevolent Association’s office this morning.  SBA President Ed Mullins stood up for former President Trump and now they are coming for him. The left is sending a message to silence and squash all political opposition- fall in line or suffer.

FBI raids NYPD’s Sergeants Benevolent Association offices in mail and wire fraud probe: source
https://nypost.com/2021/10/05/fbi-raids-nypd-sergeants-benevolent-association-headquarters/

(Chicago) Prosecutors reject charges against 5 suspects in deadly gang-related gunfight in Austin: ‘It’s just like the Wild West’ – The suspects are members of two warring factions of the Four Corner Hustlers street gang who allegedly shot it out Friday morning in the 1200 block of North Mason Avenue, where more than 70 shell casings were found… Mutual combatants was cited as the reason for the rejection.” Mutual combat is a legal term used to define a fight or struggle that two parties willingly engage in… https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2021/10/3/22707555/5-suspects-released-without-charges-deadly-shootout-austin

(Cook County State’s Atty) Foxx says Lightfoot ‘wrong’ to publicly discuss deadly shootout, says mayor got facts wrong but should instead ‘tell the truth’ – Lightfoot on Monday urged Foxx to reconsider charging suspects in the brazen gunfight last Friday in Austin, warning that a lack of consequences for criminals “will send this city into chaos.”…
https://chicago.suntimes.com/crime/2021/10/5/22711102/kim-foxx-lori-lightfoot-austin-shootout-cpd-police-prosecutors-charges

 
 

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