OCT 7/GOLD PRICE DOWN $3.90 TO $1757.40//SILVER UP 6 CENTS TO $22.63//COMEX GOLD STANDING INCREASES TO 50.146 TONNES//SILVER OZ STANDING INCREASES TO 8.715 MILLION OZ//COVID COMMENTARIES//VACCINE UPDATES//EUROPEAN UPDATES ON HIGH GAS PRICES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

GOLD:$1757.40 DOWN $3.90   The quote is London spot price

Silver:$22.63 UP 6  CENTS  London spot price ( cash market)

 
 
4:30 closing price
 
Gold $1756.00
 
silver:  22.61
 
 
 
end
 

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM PRICES BY GOLD-EAGLE (MORE ACCURATE)

 

 

PLATINUM  $983.05 DOWN  $7.8

PALLADIUM: $1966.55 UP $73.60/OZ 

 

END

Editorial of The New York Sun | February 1, 2021

end

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COMEX DETAILS//NOTICES FILED

JPMorgan has been receiving gold with reckless abandon and sometimes supplying (stopping)

receiving today 418/585

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2021 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,760.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/06/2021 DELIVERY DATE: 10/08/2021
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 C GOLDMAN 40
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 26
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 9
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 23
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 39
661 C JP MORGAN 363
661 H JP MORGAN 55
690 C ABN AMRO 5
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 6
800 C MAREX SPEC 7
880 H CITIGROUP 585
905 C ADM 11
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 585 585
MONTH TO DATE: 12,879

____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 585

 

issued:  0

Goldman Sachs stopped: 40

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT. CONTRACT: 585 NOTICE(S) FOR 58500 OZ  (1.8195 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR THIS MONTH:  12,879 FOR 1,287900 OZ  (40.059 TONNES) 

 

SILVER//OCT CONTRACT

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  0   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 1551  :  for 7,755,000  oz

 

BITCOIN MORNING QUOTE  $54,258 UP 1288  DOLLARS 

 

BITCOIN AFTERNOON QUOTE.:$54,153.0 DOLLARS  UP 1393. 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

GLD AND SLV INVENTORIES:

Gold

WITH GOLD  DOWN $3.90 AND NO PHYSICAL TO BE FOUND ANYWHERE:

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:  

 

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS)

 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

GLD  986.54 TONNES OF GOLD//

Silver

AND WITH NO SILVER AROUND  TODAY: WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS

NO CHANGES  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 

 

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

WITH REGARD TO SILVER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE SLV:

THE SILVER WITHRAWALS ARE ACTUALLY “RETURNED” TO JPM, AS JPMORGAN CALLS IN ITS LEASES WITH THE SLV FUND.  (THE STORY IS THE SAME AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S GOLD). THE SILVER NEVER LEAVES JPMORGAN’S VAULT. THEY ARE CALLING IN THEIR LEASES FOR FEAR OF SOLVENCY ISSUES.

INVENTORY RESTS AT: 

 

549.941  MILLION OZ./SLV

xxxxx

GLD closing price//NYSE 165.16 DOWN 0.87 OR 0.53%

XXXXXXXXXXXXX

SLV closing price NYSE 20.90 DOWN. 06 OR 0.29%

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 
 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
 

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY 569 CONTRACTS TO 139,194, AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020. . WITH OUR $0.03 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX  ON WEDNESDAY
 

OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN , AND(IT FELL BY $0.03) BUT WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT SOME SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY LOSS OF 262 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.WE  ALSO HAD I) HUGE  BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/WE ALSO HAD  SOME ii) REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A  STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 8.085 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S, 475,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  / v), SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS

 
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:
 
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS – 49
 
SPREADING OPERATIONS(/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER)

FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS:

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR;

MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:

 

HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

 
 
 
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS
 
 
OCT
 
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:
 
2808 CONTACTS  for 5 days, total 2808 contracts or 14.040million oz…average per day:  562 contracts or 2.808 million oz per day.

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF

OCT:  14.040 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON  

 

LAST 5 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 140.120 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

 

 
RESULT: , .. , WITH  OUR TINY 3 CENT LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX / WEDNESDAY WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 569  CONTRACTTHE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 307 CONTRACTS( 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR OCT AND  307 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DECEMBER) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS
 
 
THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY:/TODAY WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 262 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES AS WELL AS HUGE BANKER SHORTCOVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE/  /// WE HAVE A STRONG INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT OF 8.085 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 475,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
 
 

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR NIL OZ

GOLD

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3385  CONTRACTS TO 487,173 _ ,,AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. 

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -333  CONTRACTS.

THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.80///COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR  PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE  HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED 4690 CONTRACTS…..  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 49.667 TONNES, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 2100 OZ//NEW TONNAGE STANDING:  50.146 TONNES 
 
 
 
 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.80 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

 

WE HAD A VOLUME OF 0    4 -GC CONTRACTS//OPEN INTEREST  0//

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4690  OI CONTRACTS (14.61 TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

 

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1306 CONTRACTS:

CONTRACT  AND JULY:  0; AUGUST: 0 & DEC 1306  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1306 The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 487,173. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EXCHANGE DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4690 CONTRACTS: 3384 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4306 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4690 CONTRACTS OR 15.623 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (3384 OI): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5023 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 49.667 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2100 OZ//NEW STANDING: 50.146 TONNES/ / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN5). SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL 

 
 
 
 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT : 10,175, CONTRACTS OR 1,017,500 oz OR 31.64 TONNES (5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2035 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 31.64 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  31.64/3550 x 100% TONNES  0.89% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE
 
JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
 
FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
 
MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN///IT SURPASSED JANUARY!!)

 

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           31.64 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 569 CONTRACTS TO 139,194 AND FURTHER FORM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 307 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 0  AND SEPT: 0; DEC 306  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  307 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 569 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 307 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 262 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.310 MILLION  OZ, OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.03 LOSS IN PRICE. 

 

 

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL..THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR: HUGE AMOUNTS OF PHYSICAL STANDING FOR BOTH  SILVER AND GOLD .

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

 

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Gold

(Peter Schiff, Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

 
 
 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED     //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 735.24 PTS OR 3.27% /The Nikkei closed UP 149.34 PTS OR 0.54%    //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.73%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed   /Oil DOWN TO 76.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 80.01 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN   /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  XXXX AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT XXXX. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4495/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 

 
 
 
 
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

OUTLINE
 

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3384 CONTRACTS TO 487,173 MOVING CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020).  AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.80 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING.WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE (1306 CONTRACTS). …AS THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY BAILING OUT!!

 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.  

 

(SEE BELOW)

WE  HAD 0    4 -GC VOLUME//open interest REMAINS AT   0

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 1360 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  JULY 0 & AUGUST:  & DEC.  1360 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:   1360 CONTRACTS 

 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED 5023  TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1306 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI OF 3384 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT   (50.146),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 8 MONTHS OF 20201:

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB. 113.424 TONNES

JAN: 6.500 TONNES.

 

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- SEPT): 423.205 TONNNES

 

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $0.80

.,AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 14.61 TONNES,ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT (50.146 TONNES)…  I  STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS.   THEY ARE LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDERS AND WITNESSING MASSIVE SILVER/GOLD SHORTAGES THAT CANNOT BE COVERED. THEY ARE TRYING TO FLEE IN HASTE “FROM DODGE”.

WE HAD -333   CONTRACTS FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT. 

 

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES :: 4690 CONTRACTS OR 469000 OZ OR 14.61 TONNES

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT COMMODITY FUTURES OPEN INTEREST SHOULD APPROXIMATE 3% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.  IN GOLD THE WORLD PRODUCES AROUND 3500 TONNES PER YEAR BUT ONLY 2200 TONNES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEST (THUS EXCLUDING RUSSIA, CHINA ETC..WHO KEEP 100% OF THEIR PRODUCT.
 
THUS IN GOLD WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:  487,173 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS X 100 OZ PER CONTRACT = 48.71 MILLION OZ/32,150 OZ PER TONNE =  15.15 TONNES

THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST REPRESENTS 1515/2200 OR 68.92% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF GOLD.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX GOLD TODAY 142,707 contracts//    / volume//volume poor/

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 165,671 contracts//poor

 

// //most of our traders have left for London

 

OCT 7

/2021

 
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR OCT COMEX GOLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 
15,155.489OZ
hsbc
jpm
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 
 
 
 
NIL
 
oz
Brinks
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served (contracts) today
585  notice(s)
58500 OZ
 
1.8185 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
3243 contracts
324300 oz
 
10.08 TONNES
 
 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
12,879 notices
1,287,900 OZ
40.059 TONNES
 
 
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 
 
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 
 
 
 
total deposit: nil   oz 
 

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  0 deposit into the customer account
 
 
TOTAL CUSTOMER DEPOSITS nil oz
 
 
 
We had 2  customer withdrawals
i) Into HSBC 7137.519 oz
ii) Into JPMorgan: 8017.97 oz
 
 
 
total customer withdrawals 15,155.489    oz
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

We had 1  kilobar transactions 1 out of  2 transactions)

ADJUSTMENTS 0//   dealer to customer//

 

 
 
 
 
the front month of OCT. has an open interest of 3828 contracts for a GAIN of 12 contracts. We had 9 notices served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 21 contracts or 2100 oz will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of October as the queue jumping operation starts very early for this month 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NOVEMBER LOST 21 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1040
.
DEC GAINED 1440  TO STAND AT 401,219
 

We had  585 notice(s) filed today for 58500  oz

FOR THE OCT 2021 CONTRACT MONTH)Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 585  contract(s) of which66  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 363 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 40  notices received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2021. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,879) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (OCT: 3838 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  585 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,612,200 OZ OR 50.146 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of OCT.  

 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (12,879) x 100 oz+(3828)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (585} x 100 oz} which equals 1,612,200 oz standing OR 50.146 TONNES in this  active delivery month of OCT.

We gained 21 contracts or an additional 2100 oz will stand for gold at the comex.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  50.146 TONNES

 
 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

404,814.366, oz NOW PLEDGED  march 5/2021/HSBC  12.59 TONNES

285,319.695 PLEDGED  MANFRA 8.8746 TONNES

298,568.054, oz  JPM  9.28 TONNES

1,149,631,831 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/35.76 TONNES

160,865.707, oz Pledged August 21/regular account 4.164 tonnes JPMORGAN

41,127.478 oz International Delaware:  1.27 tonnes

LOOMIS:  18,615.429   0.57900

total pledged gold:  2,358,833.560oz                                     73.36 tonnes

 

SURPRISINGLY WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING NO REAL PHYSICAL GOLD ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS FOR THE PAST YEAR!! ..ONLY PHONY KILOBAR ENTRIES…. WE HAVE 478.73 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD WHICH CAN SETTLE UPON LONGS 50.08 tonnes

CALCULATION OF REGISTERED THAT CAN BE SETTLED UPON:

 

total registered or dealer  17,749,788.175 oz or 552.09 tonnes
 
 
 
total weight of pledged: 2,358,833.560   oz                                     73.37 tonnes
 
 
 
registered gold that can be used to settle upon: 15,390,955.0 (478.72 tonnes) 
 
 
 
 
true registered gold  (total registered – pledged tonnes15,390,955.0 (478.72 tonnes)   
 
 
total eligible gold: 16,183,449.512 oz   (503.37 tonnes)
 
 
 
total registered, pledged  and eligible (customer) gold  33,933,237.687 oz or 1,055.46 tonnes
 (INCLUDES 4 GC GOLD)
 
 

total 4 GC gold:   126.34 tonnes

total gold net of 4 GC:  929.12 tonnes

end

 
 

I have compiled  data with respect to registered (or dealer) gold taken on first day notice for each of the past 24 months

The data begins on first day notice for the May month taken on the last day of July 2018. and it continues to present day.

I then took, how many deliveries were recorded by the CME for each and every month.  I also included for reference the price of gold on first day notice.

The first graph is a logarithmic  graph and the second graph, linear.

You can see the huge explosion of registered gold at the comex along with deliveries.

 
 
THE DATA AND GRAPHS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
END

OCT 7/2021

And now for the wild silver comex results

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//OCT

Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
769,506.343  oz
 
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
Malca
Manfra
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 
627,720.903
 OZ
CNT
Delaware/
HSBC
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
 
CONTRACT(S)
0  OZ)
 
No of oz to be served (notices)
192 contracts
 960,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)  1551 contracts

 

7,755,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer
 

total dealer deposits:  nil        oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had  3 deposits into customer account (ELIGIBLE ACCOUNT)

i)Into CNT: 45,104.803 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 4113.600 oz

iii) Into HSBC:  578,502.500  oz

 
 

JPMorgan now has 183.017 million oz  silver inventory or 50.77% of all official comex silver. (183.017 million/360.508 million

total customer deposits today 0   oz

we had 5 withdrawals

i) Out of Delaware: 15,001.743 oz

ii) Out of CNT:  42,495.849 oz

iii) Out of JPM  579,424.867 oz

iv) Out of malca:  45,104.803 oz

v) Out of Manfra:  87,479.081 o

 

 

total withdrawal   769,506.343        oz

 

adjustments: 
0
 
 
 

Total dealer(registered) silver: 99.512 million oz

total registered and eligible silver:  360.508 million oz

a net   0.100 million oz leaves  the comex silver vaults.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 
 
For October, we have an open interest of 192 contracts for a GAIN OF 95. we had O notices filed upon yesterday so we gained 95 contracts or an additional 475,000 oz will  stand for delivery at the comex 
 
 
 

NOVEMBER GAINED 30 TO STAND AT 781  

DEC LOST 1028 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 119,345

 
NO. OF NOTICES FILED: 0  FOR NIL OZ.

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  1551 x 5,000 oz = 7,755,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (192) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT./2021 contract month: 1551 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT(192)  – number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month .equals 8,715,000 oz. .

We gained 95 contracts or an additional 475,000 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of OCTOBER.

 

 

TODAY’S ESTIMATED SILVER VOLUME  42,979 CONTRACTS // volume awful 

 

FOR YESTERDAY 41,301 contracts  ,CONFIRMED VOLUME/ awful

 

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  RISES TO -3.06% (OCT 7/2021)

SILVER FUND POSITIVE TO NAV

No of oz of physical silver held:  Oct 1/2021   151,927,020 ( a gain of 1.001 MILLION OZ IN TWO MONTHS

no of oz of physical silver held  JULY 8.2021;  150,926,000  (GAIN OF 6.411 MILLION OZ IN 2 MONTHS)

No of oz of physical silver held; MAY 24/2021  144,515,694 OZ

No. of oz of physical silver held:  Sept 20/20: 85,907.3616  Oz

No of oz pf physical silver held: Dec 21/2019:  65,073.570 Oz

During the past 12 months Sprott has added: 66.02 MILLION OZ OCT 4-SEPT 20)

 

2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.65% nav   (OCT 7)/2021 )

 

3. SPROTT CEF .A   FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA)

NAV $17.91 TRADING 17.20//NEGATIVE  3.95

 

END

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/(this vehicle is a fraud as there is no gold behind them

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $5.90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.49 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.54 TONNES

OCT 1/WITH GOLD UP $3.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.03 TONNES

SPET 30.//WITH GOLD UP $32.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.03 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.70 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.03 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WIHTDRAWAL OF 3.2 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 990.32 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 993.52 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD $1.15 DOLLARS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.14 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 992.65 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY;A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES FOF GOLD INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.79 TONNES/

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.21 TONNES/

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.21 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $12,90 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.04 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.21 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 13//WITH GOLD UP $1.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.17 TONNES

SEPTEMBER 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40//A SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD”: A WITHDRAWAL OF .35 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.17

SEPT 9/WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.52 TONNES/

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 998.52 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 998.52 TONNES.

SEPT 3/WITH GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY: A HUGE  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .74 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 999.52 TONNES

SEPT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.26 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1000.26 TONNES.

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $5.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES./

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES/

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.79 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES

AUGUST 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.10 TODAY, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.91 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1001.72 TONNES.

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1004.63 TONNES

AUGUST 24/ WITH GOLD UP $2.60 TODAY: A MONSTER CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.95 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1006.66 TONNES.

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.25 TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.61 TONNES// 

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD UP $1.05 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.49 TONNES FROM THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.61 TONNES

AUGUST 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.10 TONNES/

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD  DOWN $2.85 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.10 TONNES/

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.50 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1020.63 TONNES

 
 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Inventory rests tonight at:

 

OCT 7 / GLD INVENTORY 986,54 tonnes

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them!)

OCT 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.941 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.941 MILLION OZ 

OCT 5/ WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 503,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.941 MILLION OZ

OCT 4/WITH  SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 8.425 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.438 MILLION OZ/

OCT 1/WITH  SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.013 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.013 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY// A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF .509,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.013 MILLION OZ

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.982 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.522 MILLION OZ

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.204 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.504 MILLION OZ

SEPT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.708 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 509,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.708 MILLION OZ///

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.217 MILLION OZ/./

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.11 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.624 MILLION OZ

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.131MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.735 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ..

SEPT 9/ WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 8/WITH SILVE DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.037 MILLION OF FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.866 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ.

SEPT 3/WITH SILVER UP 83 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 977,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.903 MILLION OZ

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.880 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.880 MILLION OZ

 

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 545.878 MILLION OZ////

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 47 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ/./

AUGUST 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST24/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLSV: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 3.427 MILLION OZ AND THIS IS HEADING FOR SPROTT//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.878 MILLION OZ..

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.641 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 549.305 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.946 MILLION OZ//

AUGUST 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.389 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.946 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 18/ WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.131 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.INVENTORY REST AT 553.375 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 555.466 MILLION OZ.

 
 

OCT 7/2021  SLV INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 549.941 MILLION OZ

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

PETER SCHIFF

 

end

EGON VON GREYERZ//MATHEW PIEPENBERG/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS

OR LAWRIE WILLIAMS

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold and silver

-END-

ii) Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

END

OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES

OTHER COMMODITIES//COAL

Dry Bulk Shipping Rates Hit $80,000 Per Day As Buyers Scramble For Coal

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 08:50 PM

By Greg Miller of FreightWaves,

Yet another sign of stress for energy supplies and global supply chains: Spot rates for large dry cargo ships just topped $80,000 per day for the first time since 2009, and freight derivatives for the fourth quarter — a period when rates for these vessels normally pull back — just spiked.

Not long ago, it was a different story. On Sept. 20, headlines were dominated by Chinese property developer Evergrande and its impending collapse; fallout to construction and steel demand would assumedly hit future Chinese buying of commodities carried on dry cargo vessels.

Dry bulk stocks plunged. While spot rates for Capesizes (bulkers with capacity of around 180,000 deadweight tons) held firm at $53,800 per day, forward freight agreement (FFA) derivatives did not. Amid what one broker called “mayhem,” the Q4 FFA contract sank to $36,750 per day, with the December contract all the way down to $29,500. The FFA market signaled: Party over.

Two weeks later, it has a new message: Party not over. Festivities shall continue until year-end.

As of Tuesday, spot Capesize rates were up to $80,877 per day, based on the Baltic Exchange 5TC index. That’s 50% higher than two weeks ago when sentiment briefly dimmed.

Fears on Chinese property development still loom large, but now there’s an even bigger spotlight on Chinese factory blackouts due to electricity rationing and dwindling coal supplies in both China and India.

More coal to keep the power on in the winter should equal higher bulker rates.

And as with container shipping, rampant port congestion is slashing effective ship supply, adding more support to rates. Braemar ACM Shipbroking estimates that 5.7% of the entire global dry bulk fleet is now waiting offshore of China.

FFAs have shot up even faster than physical rates, accelerating their rise on Tuesday. “There are few superlatives appropriate for the price moves,” wrote brokerage Clarksons regarding Tuesday’s FFA trading, citing “monstrous gains.”

The Q4 Capesize FFA closed at $61,500 per day, up 67% from levels on Sept. 20, with October contracts up 78%, November 59% and December 63% over the same two-week stretch.

Dry bulk shipping stocks rallied. The Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF, an exchange-traded fund that buys FFAs, rose 9% Tuesday and hit its highest level since its debut in 2018.

Shares of Navios Holdings jumped 16%. Shares of Diana Shipping rose 9% and Eagle Bulk 7%. Golden Ocean, Safe Bulkers and Star Bulk gained 6%, and Genco Shipping 5%.

 END

US Desperate For Coal Miners To Meet Soaring Global Demand

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 05:45 AM

Coal supply shortages in Asia and Europe are pushing prices for the dirtiest fossil fuel to record highs and have become a challenge for US suppliers due to a shortage of miners, according to Bloomberg

For the last three and a half decades, the number of coal mining jobs in the US has collapsed from 180,000 to 42,500 in August. The industry remains 9,500 miners short from pre-COVID times. 

With coal prices worldwide screaming to all-time highs ahead of winter as China and Europe scramble for supplies, the US coal industry is failing to find new miners willing to do the dirty work as demand soars. 

“That’s making it difficult for mining companies to boost production at a time when the global energy crisis is making utilities desperate for every lump of coal they can dig up. Even with coal prices surging around the world, the labor shortages are another sign that it’s going to be tough to shore up energy stockpiles,” Bloomberg said. 

Erin Higginson of Custom Staffing Services, which recruits miners in the Illinois Basin, said miners used to walk into their office for jobs, but now they have to “hold job fairs all over just to find a few miners.” 

Attracting new miners in the US has been a difficult sell to prime working-age men and women convinced by mainstream media that the green energy transition is imminent. However, with surging natural gas, coal, and oil prices heading into winter, it appears the transition will take decades, not years, because renewable energy is not reliable, as the UK found out the hard way late in the summer when its wind turbine generation plunged forcing it to power up natgas generators to protect the grid from collapse

What this suggests is there are many jobs available in the fossil fuel space. 

“There’s a perception that the coal industry, if not dead, is dying,” Ernie Thrasher, chief executive officer of Xcoal Energy & Resources LLC, a Pennsylvania coal trader that works with several suppliers. said. “Young people just have many more choices.”

Mining companies are getting creative in hiring, said Rich Nolan, CEO of the National Mining Association trade group.

Along with higher pay, some firms offer benefits like daycare. “Everyone is scraping for employees,” Nolan said. “They’re using every trick in the book to attract qualified workers.”

Some mining firms are desperate enough that they are offering $100k per year for new talent. 

Miners might not meet the surge in demand due to years of decommissioning mines to reduce carbon emissions and transition the economy from fossil fuels to green energy. A sustainable energy transition will likely take decades, not years: 

“There is an energy transition taking place,” said Xcoal’s Thrasher. “But it’s going to take longer than people think.”

To sum up, Asia and Europe need fossil fuels as the green energy transition is unreliable, triggering one of the great power crunches the world has ever seen. But the US might come up empty handed as labor shortages plague the industry. 

 
CRYPTOCURRENCIES/
 
 
 
end
 

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/7 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs usa dollar/CLOSED  

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN 6.4495  /shanghai bourse CLOSED 

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 735.24 PTS OR 3.27% 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 149.34 PTS OR 0.54%  

 

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN

 

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  94.11/Euro RISES TO 1.1564

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.078/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.34/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//CARRY TRADERS GETTING KILLED

3c Nikkei now JUST ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 76.10 and Brent: 80.01

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED XX//  OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.197%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 0.83% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 0.46%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.03: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 0.87

3k Gold at $1762.50 silver at: 22.78   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 60/100 in roubles/dollar) 71.86

3m oil into the 76 dollar handle for WTI and  80 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.34 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9261 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0709 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to 0.197%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.531% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.084%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 8.87..  VERY DEADLY

Futures Surge On Debt Ceiling Reprieve, Slide In Energy Prices

 
 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 07:57 AM

The nausea-inducing rollercoaster in the stock market continued on Thursday, when US index futures continued their violent Wednesday reversal – the biggest since March – and surged with Nasdaq futures up more than 1%, hitting a session high, as Chinese technology stocks rebounded from a record low, investors embraced progress on the debt-ceiling impasse in Washington, a dip in oil prices eased worries of higher inflation and concerns eased about the European energy crisis fueled a risk-on mood. At 7:30am ET, S&P futures were up 44 points or 1.00% and Dow futures were up 267 points or 0.78%. Oil tumbled as much as $2, dragging breakevens and nominal yields lower, while the dollar dipped and bitcoin traded around $54,000.

Wednesday’s reversal started after Mitch McConnell on Wednesday floated a plan to support an extension of the federal debt ceiling into December, potentially heading off a historic default, a proposal which Democrats have reportedly agreed to after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer suggested an agreement would be in place by this morning. While the deal is good news for markets worried about an imminent default, it only kicks the can to December when the drama and brinksmanship may run again.

Markets have been rocked in the past month by worries about the global energy crisis, elevated inflation, reduced stimulus and slower growth. Meanwhile, the prospect of a deal to boost the U.S. debt limit into December is easing concern over political bickering, while Friday’s payrolls report may shed light on the the Federal Reserve’s timeline to cut bond purchases.

“We have several things that we are watching right now — certainly the debt ceiling is one of them and that’s been contributing to the recent volatility,” Tracie McMillion, head of global asset allocation strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said on Bloomberg Television. “But we look for these 5% corrections to add money to the equity markets.”

Tech and FAAMG stocks including Apple (AAPL US +1%), Nvidia (NVDA +2%), Microsoft (MSFT US +0.9%), Tesla (TSLA US 0.8%) led the charge in premarket trading amid a dip in 10-year Treasury yields on Thursday, helped by a slide in energy prices on the back of Putin’s Wednesday announcement that Russia could ramp up nat gas deliveries to Europe, something it still has clearly not done.

Perhaps sensing that not all is at Putin said, after plunging on Wednesday UK nat gas futures (NBP) from 407p/therm to a low of 209, prices have ominously started to rise again.

As oil fell, energy stocks including Chevron, Exxon Mobil and APA led declines with falls between 0.6% and 2.1%. Here are some of the other big movers today:

  • Twitter (TWTR US) shares rise 2% in U.S. premarket trading after it agreed to sell MoPub to AppLovin for $1.05 billion in cash
  • Levi Strauss (LEVI US) rises 4% in U.S. premarket trading after it boosted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year; the guidance beat the average analyst estimate
  • NRX Pharmaceuticals (NRXP US) drops in U.S. premarket trading after Relief Therapeutics sued the company, alleging breach of a collaboration pact
  • Osmotica Pharmaceuticals (OSMT US) declined 28% in premarket trading after launching an offering of shares
  • Rocket Lab USA (RKLB US) shares rose in Wednesday postmarket trading after the company announced it has been selected to launch NASA’s Advanced Composite Solar Sail System, or ACS3, on the Electron launch vehicle
  • U.S. Silica Holdings (SLCA US) rose 7% Wednesday postmarket after it started a review of strategic alternatives for its Industrial & Specialty Products segment, including a potential sale or separation
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT US) climbed 2.6% in Wednesday after hours trading while Sage Therapeutics (SAGE US) dropped 3.9% after Jefferies analyst Akash Tewari kicked off his biotech sector coverage

On the geopolitical front, a senior U.S. official said President Joe Biden’s plans to meet virtually with his Chinese counterpart before the end of the year. Tensions are escalating between the two countries, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticizing China’s recent military maneuvers around Taiwan.

European equities rebounded, with the Stoxx 600 index surging as much as 1.3% boosted by news that the European Central Bank was said to be studying a new bond-buying program as emergency programs are phased out. Also boosting sentiment on Thursday, ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said that investors shouldn’t expect premature interest-rate increases from the central bank. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Iberdrola shares rise as much as 6.8% after an upgrade at BofA, and as Spanish utilities climbed following a report that the Ministry for Ecological Transition may suspend or modify the mechanism that reduces the income received by hydroelectric, nuclear and some renewables in relation to gas prices.
  • Hermes shares climb as much as 3.8%, the most since February, after HSBC says “there isn’t much to worry about” from a possible slowdown in mainland China or questions over trend sustainability in the U.S.
  • Edenred shares gain as much as 5.2%, their best day since Nov. 9, after HSBC upgrades the voucher company to buy from hold, saying that Edenred, along with Experian, offers faster recurring revenue growth than the rest of the business services sector.
  • Valeo shares gain as much as 4.9% and is Thursday’s best performer in the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts index; Citi raised to neutral from sell as broker updated its model ahead of 3Q results.
  • Sika shares rise as much as 4.2% after company confirms 2021 guidance, which Baader said was helpful amid market concerns of sequentially declining margins due to rising raw material prices.
  • Centrica shares rise as much as 3.6% as Morgan Stanley upgrades Centrica to overweight from equalweight, saying the utility provider will add market share as smaller U.K. companies fail due to the spike in wholesale energy prices.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rallied, boosted by a rebound in Hong Kong-listed technology shares and optimism over the progress made toward a U.S. debt-ceiling accord. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.3%, on track for its biggest jump since Aug. 24. Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan were among the biggest contributors to the benchmark’s advance. Equity gauges in Hong Kong and Taiwan led a broad regional gain, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 also rebounded from its longest losing run since 2009. Thursday’s rally in Asia came after U.S. stocks closed higher overnight on a possible deal to boost the debt ceiling into December. Focus now shifts to the reopening of mainland China markets on Friday following the Golden Week holiday, and also the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due that day. READ: China Tech Gauge Posts Best Day Since August After Touching Lows “Risk off sentiment has persisted due to a number of negative factors, but worry over some of these issues has been alleviated for the near term,” said Shogo Maekawa, a strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Tokyo. “One is that concern over stagflation has abated, with oil prices pulling back.” Sentiment toward risks assets was also supported as a senior U.S. official said President Joe Biden plans to meet virtually with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the end of the year.

Of note, holders of Evergrande-guaranteed Jumbo Fortune bonds have yet to receive payment; the holders next step would be to request payment from Evergrande. The maturity of the bond in question was Sunday October 3rd, with a Monday October 4th effective due data, though the bond does have a five-day grace period only in the event that payment failure is due to an administrative/technical error.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% to close at 7,256.70. All subgauges finished the day higher, with the exception of energy stocks as Asian peers tumbled with a retreat in crude oil prices.  Collins Foods was among the top performers after the company signed an agreement to become KFC’s corporate franchisee in the Netherlands. Whitehaven tumbled, dropping the most for a session since June 17.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.5% to 13,104.61.

Oil extended its decline from a seven-year high as U.S. stockpiles grew more than expected, and European natural gas prices tumbled on signals from Russia it may increase supplies to the continent.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury was 1.526%, little changed on the day after erasing a 2.4bp increase; bunds outperformed by ~1.5bp, gilts by less than 1bp; long-end outperformance flattened 2s10s, 5s30s by ~0.5bp each. Treasuries pared losses during European morning as fuel prices ebbed and stocks gained. Bunds and gilts outperform while Treasuries curve flattens with long-end yields slightly richer on the day. WTI oil futures are lower after Russia’s offer to ease Europe’s energy crunch. Negotiations on a short-term increase to U.S. debt-ceiling continue.   

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed and the greenback was weaker against most Group-of-10 peers, though moves were confined to relatively tight ranges. The U.S. jobs report Friday is the key risk for markets this week as a strong print could boost the dollar. Options traders see a strong chance that the euro manages to stay above a key technical support, at least on a closing basis. Risk sensitive currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars as well as Sweden’s krona led G-10 gains, while Norway’s currency was the worst performer as European natural gas and power prices tumbled early Thursday after signals from Russia it may increase supplies to the continent. The pound gained against a broadly weaker dollar as concerns over the U.K. petrol crisis eased and focus turned to Bank of England policy. A warning shot buried deep in the BoE’s policy documents two weeks ago indicating that interest rates could rise as early as this year suddenly is becoming a more distinct possibility. Australia’s 10-year bonds rose for the first time in two weeks as sentiment was bolstered by a short-term deal involving the U.S. debt ceiling. The yen steadied amid a recovery in risk sentiment as stocks edged higher. Bond futures rose as a debt auction encouraged players to cautiously buy the dip.

Looking ahead, investors will be looked forward to the release of weekly jobless claims data, likely showing 348,000 Americans filed claims for state unemployment benefits last week compared with 362,000 in the prior week. The ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday showed private payrolls increased by 568,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a rise of 428,000 jobs. This comes ahead of the more comprehensive non-farm payrolls data due on Friday. It is expected to cement the case for the Fed’s slowing of asset purchases. We’ll also get the latest August consumer credit print. From central banks, we’ll be getting the minutes from the ECB’s September meeting, and also hear from a range of speakers including the ECB’s President Lagarde, Lane, Elderson, Holzmann, Schnabel, Knot and Villeroy, along with the Fed’s Mester, BoC Governor Macklem and PBoC Governor Yi Gang.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1% to 4,395.5
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.03% to 455.96
  • MXAP up 1.2% to 193.71
  • MXAPJ up 1.8% to 633.78
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 27,678.21
  • Topix down 0.1% to 1,939.62
  • Hang Seng Index up 3.1% to 24,701.73
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,568.17
  • Sensex up 1.2% to 59,872.01
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,256.66
  • Kospi up 1.8% to 2,959.46
  • Brent Futures down 1.8% to $79.64/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,762.96
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.19
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to -0.188%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1563

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Democrats signaled they would take up Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell’s offer to raise the U.S. debt ceiling into December, alleviating the immediate risk of a default but raising the prospect of another bruising political fight near the end of the year
  • The European Central Bank is studying a new bond-buying program to prevent any market turmoil when emergency purchases get phased out next year, according to officials familiar with the matter
  • Market expectations for interest-rate hikes “are not in accordance with our new forward guidance,” ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said in an interview with Bloomberg Television
  • Creditors have yet to receive repayment of a dollar bond they say is guaranteed by China Evergrande Group and one of its units, in what could be the firm’s first major miss on maturing notes since regulators urged the developer to avoid a near-term default
  • Boris Johnson’s plan to overhaul the U.K. economy is a 10-year project he wants to see out as prime minister, according to a senior official. The time frame, which has not been disclosed publicly, illustrates the scale of Johnson’s gamble that British voters will accept a long period of what he regards as shock therapy to redefine Britain
  • The U.K.’s surge in inflation has boosted the cost of investment-grade borrowing in sterling to the most since June 2020. The average yield on the corporate notes climbed just past 2%, according to a Bloomberg index

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded positively as the region took impetus from the mostly positive close in the US where the major indices spent the prior session clawing back opening losses, with sentiment supported amid a potential Biden-Xi virtual meeting this year, and hopes of a compromise on the debt ceiling after Senate Republican Leader McConnell offered a short-term debt limit extension to December. The ASX 200 (+0.7%) was led higher by strength in the tech sector and with risk appetite also helped by the announcement to begin easing restrictions in New South Wales from next Monday. The Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) attempted to reclaim the 28k level with advances spearheaded by tech and amid reports Tokyo is to lower its virus warning from the current top level. The Hang Seng (+3.1%) was the biggest gainer owing to strength in tech and property stocks, with Evergrande shareholder Chinese Estates surging in Hong Kong after a proposal from Solar Bright to take it private. Reports also noted that the US and China reportedly reached an agreement in principle for a Biden-Xi virtual meeting before year-end and with yesterday’s talks in Zurich between senior officials said to be more meaningful and constructive than other recent exchanges. Finally, 10yr JGBs retraced some of the prior day’s after-hours rebound with haven demand hampered by the upside in stocks and after the recent choppy mood in T-notes, while the latest enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated JGBs resulted in a weaker bid-to-cover.

Top Asian News

  • Vietnam Faces Worker Exodus From Factory Hub for Gap, Nike, Puma
  • Japan’s New Finance Minister Stresses FX Stability Is Vital
  • Korea Lures Haven Seekers With Bonds Sold at Lowest Spread
  • Africa’s Free-Trade Area to Get $7 Billion in Support From AfDB

Bourses in Europe hold onto the gains seen at the cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 +1.5%; Stoxx 600 +1.1%) following on from an upbeat APAC handover, albeit the upside momentum took a pause shortly after the cash open. US equity futures are also firmer across the board but to a slightly lesser extent, with the tech-laden NQ (+1.0%) getting a boost from a pullback in yields and outperforming its ES (+0.7%), RTY (+0.6%) and YM (+0.6%). The constructive tone comes amid some positive vibes out of the States, and on a geopolitical note, with US Senate Minority Leader McConnell offered a short-term debt ceiling extension to December whilst US and China reached an agreement in principle for a Biden-Xi virtual meeting before the end of the year. Euro-bourses portray broad-based gains whilst the UK’s FTSE 100 (+1.0%) narrowly lags the Euro Stoxx benchmarks, weighed on by its heavyweight energy and healthcare sectors, which currently reside at the foot of the bunch. Further, BoE’s Chief Economist Pill also hit the wires today and suggested that the balance of risks is currently shifting towards great concerns about the inflation outlook, as the current strength of inflation looks set to prove more long-lasting than originally anticipated. Broader sectors initially opened with an anti-defensive bias (ex-energy), although the configuration since then has turned into more of a mixed picture, although Basic Resource and Autos still reside towards the top. Individual movers are somewhat scarce in what is seemingly a macro-driven day thus far. Miners top the charts on the last day of the Chinese Golden Week Holiday, with base metal prices also on the front foot in anticipation of demand from the nation – with Antofagasta (+5.1%), Anglo American (+4.2%) among the top gainers, whist Teamviewer (-8.2%) is again at the foot of the Stoxx 600 in a continuation of the losses seen after its guidance cut yesterday. Ubisoft (-5.1%) are also softer, potentially on a bad reception for its latest Ghost Recon game announcement.

Top European News

  • ECB’s Stournaras Reckons Investor Rate-Hike Bets Are Unwarranted
  • Shell Flags Financial Impact of Gas Market Swings, Hurricane
  • Johnson’s Plans for Economy Signal Ambitions for Decade in Power
  • U.K. Grid Bids to Calm Market Saying Winter Gas Supply Is Enough

In FX, the latest upturn in broad risk sentiment as the pendulum continues to swing one way then the other on alternate days, has given the Aussie a fillip along with news that COVID-19 restrictions in NSW remain on track for being eased by October 11, according to the state’s new Premier. Aud/Usd is eyeing 0.7300 in response to the above and a softer Greenback, while the Aud/Nzd cross is securing a firmer footing above 1.0500 in wake of a slender rise in AIG’s services index and ahead of the latest RBA FSR. Conversely, the Pound is relatively contained vs the Buck having probed 1.3600 when the DXY backed off further from Wednesday’s w-t-d peak to a 94.102 low and has retreated through 0.8500 against the Euro amidst unsubstantiated reports about less hawkish leaning remarks from a member of the BoE’s MPC. In short, the word is that Broadbent has downplayed the prospects of any fireworks in November via a rate hike, but on the flip-side new chief economist Pill delivered a hawkish assessment of the inflation situation in the UK when responding to a TSC questionnaire (see 10.18BST post on the Headline Feed for bullets and a link to his answers in full). Back to the Dollar index, challenger lay-offs are due and will provide another NFP guide before claims and commentary from Fed’s Mester, while from a technical perspective there is near term support just below 94.000 and resistance a fraction shy of 94.500, at 93.983 (yesterday’s low) and the aforementioned midweek session best (94.448 vs the 94.283 intraday high, so far).

  • NZD – Notwithstanding the negative cross flows noted above, the Kiwi is also taking advantage of more constructive external and general factors to secure a firmer grip of the 0.6900 handle vs its US counterpart, but remains rather deflated post-RBNZ on cautious guidance in terms of further tightening.
  • EUR/CHF/CAD/JPY – All narrowly mixed against their US peer and mostly well within recent ranges as the Euro reclaims 1.1500+ status in the run up to ECB minutes, the Franc consolidates off sub-0.9300 lows following dips in Swiss jobless rates, the Loonie weighs up WTI crude’s further loss of momentum against the Greenback’s retreat between 1.2600-1.2563 parameters awaiting Canada’s Ivey PMIs and a speech from BoC Governor Macklem, and the Yen retains an underlying recovery bid within 111.53-23 confines before a raft of Japanese data. Note, little reaction to comments from Japanese Finance Minister, when asked about recent Jpy weakening, as he simply said that currency stability is important, so is closely watching FX developments, but did not comment on current levels.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front month futures are on the backfoot, in part amid the post-Putin losses across the Nat Gas space, with the UK ICE future dropping some 20% in early trade. This has also provided further headwinds to the crude complex, which itself tackles its own bearish omens. WTI underperforms Brent amid reports that the US was mulling a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release and did not rule out an export ban. Desks have offered their thoughts on the development. Goldman Sachs says a US SPR release would likely be of up to 60mln barrels, only representing a USD 3/bbl downside to the year-end USD 90/bbl Brent forecast and stated that relief would only be transitory given structural deficits the market will face from 2023 onwards. GS notes that any larger price impact that further hampers US shale activity would lead to elevated US nat gas prices in 2022, and an export ban would lead to significant disruption within the US oil market, likely bullish retail fuel price impact. RBC, meanwhile, believes that these comments were to incentivise OPEC+ to further open the taps after the producers opted to maintain a plan to hike output 400k BPD/m. On that note, sources noted that the OPEC+ decision against a larger supply hike at Monday’s meeting was partly driven by concern that demand and prices could weaken – this would be in-fitting with sources back in July, which suggested that demand could weaken early 2022. The downside for crude prices was exacerbated as Brent Dec fell under USD 80/bbl to a low of near 79.00/bbl (vs 81.14/bbl), whilst WTI Nov briefly lost USD 75/bbl (vs high 77.23/bbl). Prices have trimmed some losses since. Metals in comparison have been less interesting; spot gold is flat and only modestly widened its overnight range to the current 1,756-66 range, whilst spot silver remains north of USD 22.50/bbl. Elsewhere, the risk tone has aided copper prices, with LME copper still north of USD 9,000/t, whilst some also cite supply concerns as a key mining road in Peru (second-largest copper producer) was blocked, with the indigenous community planning to continue the blockade indefinitely, according to a local leader. It is also worth noting that Chinese markets will return tomorrow from their Golden Week holiday.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:30am: Sept. Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior -86.4%
  • 8:30am: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 348,000, prior 362,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.76m, prior 2.8m
  • 9:45am: Oct. Langer Consumer Comfort, prior 54.7
  • 11:45am: Fed’s Mester Takes Part in Panel on Inflation Dynamics
  • 3pm: Aug. Consumer Credit, est. $17.5b, prior $17b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

On the survey, given how fascinating markets are at the moment I think the results of this month’s edition will be especially interesting. However the irony is that when things are busy less people tend to fill it in as they are more pressed for time. So if you can try to spare 3-4 minutes your help would be much appreciated. Many thanks.

It was a wild session for markets yesterday, with multiple asset classes swinging between gains and losses as investors sought to grapple with the extent of inflationary pressures and potential shock to growth. However US equities closed out in positive territory and at the highs as the news on the debt ceiling became more positive after Europe went home.

Before this equities had lost ground throughout the London afternoon, with the S&P 500 down nearly -1.3% at one point with Europe’s STOXX 600 closing -1.03% lower. Cyclical sectors led the European underperformance, although it was a fairly broad-based decline. However after Europe went home – or closed their laptops in many cases – the positive debt ceiling developments saw risk sentiment improve throughout the rest of New York session. The S&P rallied to finish +0.41% and is now slightly up on the week, as defensive sectors such as utilities (+1.53%) and consumer staples (+1.00%) led the index while US cyclicals fell back like their European counterparts. Small cap stocks didn’t enjoy as much of a boost as the Russell 2000 ended the day -0.60% lower, while the megacap tech NYFANG+ index gained +0.82%.

Risk sentiment improved following reports that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was willing to negotiate with Democrats to resolve the debt ceiling impasse and allow Democrats to raise the ceiling until December. This means President Biden and Congressional Democrats would be able to finish their fiscal spending package – now estimated at around $1.9-2.2 trillion – and include a further debt ceiling raise into one large reconciliation package near year-end. Senate Majority Leader Schumer has not publicly addressed the deal yet, but Democrats have signaled that they’ll accept the deal, although they’ve also indicated they’d still like to pass the longer-term debt ceiling bill under regular order in a bipartisan manner when the time came near year-end. Interestingly, if we did see the ceiling extended until December, this would put another deadline that month, since the government funding extension only went through to December 3, so we could have yet another round of multiple congressional negotiations in just a few weeks’ time.

The news of a Republican offer coincided with President Biden’s virtual meeting with industry leaders, where the President implored them to join him in pressuring legislators to raise the debt limit. Treasury Secretary Yellen also attended the meeting, and re-emphasised her estimate for the so-called “drop dead date” to be October 18. Potentially at risk Treasury bills maturing shortly thereafter rallied a few basis points, signaling investors took yesterday afternoon’s debt ceiling developments as positive and credible.

This was a far cry from where markets opened the London session as turmoil again gripped the gas market. UK and European natural gas futures both surged around +40% to reach an intraday high shortly after the open. However, energy markets went into reverse following comments from Russian President Putin that the country was set to supply more gas to Europe and help stabilise energy markets, with European futures erasing those earlier gains to actually end the day down -6.75%, with their UK counterpart similarly reversing course to close -6.96% too. The U.K. future traded in a stunning 255 to 408 price range on the day.

We shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves here though, since even with the latest reversal, prices are still up by more than five-fold since the start of the year, and this astonishing increase over recent weeks has attracted attention from policymakers across the world as governments look to step in and protect consumers and industry. In the EU, the Energy Commissioner, Kadri Simson, said that the price shock was “hurting our citizens, in particular the most vulnerable households, weakening competitiveness and adding to inflationary pressure. … There is no question that we need to take policy measures”. However, the potential response appeared to differ across the continent. French President Macron said that more energy capacity was required, of which renewables and nuclear would be key elements, while Italian PM Draghi said that joint EU gas purchases had wide support. However, Hungarian PM Orban took the opportunity to blame the European Commission, saying that the Green Deal’s regulations were “indirect taxation”, which shows how these price spikes could create greater resistance to green measures moving forward. Elsewhere, blame was also cast on carbon speculators, with Spanish environment minister Rodriguez saying that “We don’t want to be hostages of external financial investors”, and outside the EU, Serbian President Vucic said that his country could ban power exports if there were further issues, which just shows how energy has the potential to become a big geopolitical issue this winter.

Those declines in natural gas prices were echoed across the energy complex, with both Brent Crude (-1.79%) and WTI (-1.90%) oil prices subsiding from their multi-year highs the previous day, just as coal also fell -10.20%. In turn, that served to alleviate some of the concerns about building price pressures and helped measures of longer-term inflation expectations decline across the board. Indeed by the close, the 10yr breakeven in the US had come down -1.4bps, and the equivalent measures in Germany (-4.6bps), Italy (-6.1bps) and the UK (-4.2bps) had likewise seen declines of their own.

In spite of those moves for inflation expectations, this proved little consolation for European sovereign bonds as higher real rates put them under continued pressure, even if yields had pared back some of their gains from the morning. Yields on 10yr bunds (+0.6bps), OATs (+0.9bps) and BTPs (+3.2bps) were all at their highest levels in 3 months, whilst those on Polish 10yr debt were up +13.7bps after the central bank there unexpectedly became the latest to raise rates, with the 40bps hike to 0.5% marking the first increase since 2012. However, for the US it was a different story, with yields on 10yr Treasuries down -0.5bps to 1.521%, having peaked at 1.57% earlier in the London morning.

There was a late story in Europe that could bear watching in the coming weeks as Bloomberg reported that the ECB is studying a new bond-buying tool that could help ease market volatility if a “taper tantrum”-esque move were to happen when the PEPP purchases end in March. The plan would reportedly target purchases selectively if there were to be a larger selloff in more heavily indebted economies, which differs from the existing programs that buys debt in relation to the size of each member’s economy.

Asian stocks overnight have performed strongly, with the Hang Seng (+2.28%), Nikkei (+1.68%) and KOSPI (+1.61%) all advancing after the positive news on the debt-ceiling, as well on news that US President Biden was set to meeting with Chinese President Xi by the end of the year. All the indices were lifted by the IT and consumer discretionary sectors, and the Hang Seng Tech index has rebounded by +3.29% this morning. Separately, Evergrande-related news has been subsiding in recent days, but China Estates, a company controlled by a backer of Evergrande, rose 30% after the company disclosed an offer to take it private for $245mn. Otherwise, US futures are pointing to a positive start later, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.50%) and DAX (+1.19%) both advancing.

Turning to Germany, exploratory talks will be commencing today between the centre-left SPD, the Greens and the Liberal FDP, who together would make up a so-called “traffic-light” coalition. That marks a boost for the SPD, who beat the CDU/CSU bloc into first place in the September 26 election, although CDU leader Armin Laschet said that his party were “still ready to hold talks”. However, the CDU/CSU have faced internal tensions after they slumped to their worst-ever election result, whilst a Forsa poll out on Tuesday said that 53% of voters wanted a traffic-light coalition, versus just 22% who favoured the Jamaica option led by the CDU/CSU. So momentum seems clearly behind the traffic light option for now.

Looking at yesterday’s data, in the US the ADP’s report at private payrolls came in at an unexpectedly strong +568k (vs. +430k expected), which is the highest in their series for 3 months and comes ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report. However in Germany, factory orders in August fell by -7.7% (vs. -2.2% expected) amidst various supply issues.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for August, whilst in the US we’ve got the weekly initial jobless claims and August’s consumer credit.From central banks, we’ll be getting the minutes from the ECB’s September meeting, and also hear from a range of speakers including the ECB’s President Lagarde, Lane, Elderson, Holzmann, Schnabel, Knot and Villeroy, along with the Fed’s Mester, BoC Governor Macklem and PBoC Governor Yi Gang.

3A/ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED     //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 735.24 PTS OR 3.27% /The Nikkei closed UP 149.34 PTS OR 0.54%    //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.73%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed   /Oil DOWN TO 76.10 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 80.01 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN   /ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  XXXX AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT XXXX. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4495/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /TRADE DEAL NOW DEAD..TRUMP  RAISED RATES TO 25%/

 

 

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

/NORTH KOREA//SOUTH KOREA

 
end

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN

Biden Tells Japan’s New PM That US Will Defend Senkaku Islands From China

 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 09:30 PM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com, 

President Biden told Japan’s new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in a phone call on Monday that the US would defend the Senkaku Islands in the event of a Chinese attack.

The Senkakus, known as the Diayous in China, are a group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea. They are currently controlled by Japan and are also claimed by China and Taiwan.

Via Tokyo Review

In a statement on the call, Japan’s Foreign Ministry said that Biden had “reaffirmed the US’s unwavering commitment to the defense of Japan including the application of Article V of the Japan-US Security Treaty to the Senkaku Islands.”

Article V is the section of the US-Japan Security Treaty that outlines the mutual defense agreement between the two countries. Kishida told reporters on Tuesday that President Biden had given “strong remarks on the US commitment to defend Japan, including Article V.”

The Senkaku Islands have turned into a potential flashpoint for a conflict between the US and China since the Obama administration when the US first affirmed it would come to Japan’s defense if the islands were attacked.

The Biden administration first made the pledge that it would defend the Senkakus to Japan back in January when Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin first spoke with his Japanese counterpart.

Kishida said that he and Biden agreed to work together on “challenges facing neighboring regions such as China and North Korea.” The Japanese leader said he wants to strengthen military ties with the US as well as other “democracies” in Asia and Europe.

 

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK INFLATION  UPDATE
Jim Reid thinks that UK inflation will hit 7% by April
(zerohedge)
 

UK Inflation To Hit 7% By… April?

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 04:15 AM

This morning’s most remarkable market observation comes from DB’s chief credit strategist Jim Ried, whose chart of the day shows that the UK may be starting at galloping, runaway inflation of up to 7% as soon as April, the direct result of the insanity taking place in Europe’s energy markets.

Picking up on our obsession with soaring breakevens, this morning Reid points out that the extraordinary moves in natural gas prices have continued to drive global inflation breakevens to multi-year highs, with the stand out feature of the last 24 hours being that index-linked bonds are now implying UK Retail Price Index (RPI) inflation will be 7% in April 2022.

As Reid explains, this is the month the energy regulator Ofgem updates its price cap for utility bills. Typically, the RPI/CPI gap is around 1% but this widens when energy spikes: “Regardless of which inflation gauge is used (and RPI is a flawed measure), it’s fair to say that the cost of living is going up fast. In any case, RPI is used by the UK government to set things like train prices and student loan rates. Some students could in theory be facing 10% interest on their student loans if this continues, 100 times the BoE base rate.”

However, as the Deutsche Banker also notes, “it is likely that the UK government will mitigate a lot of these impacts as many governments around the world are doing for the lower paid in order to offset the rise in energy costs. Expect this to be a recurring theme.”

So going back to Reid’s “Chart of the Day”, it shows the impact that all this has had on 1 year UK RPI swaps. They moved above 6.3% earlier this morning. The 5y, 10y and 5y5y RPI swaps were around c.4.6%, c.4.3% and c.3.95% earlier this morning, which indicates that UK RPI inflation is not necessarily seen as transitory on those metrics.

From a trade perspective, anyone who disagrees with these market forecasts can receive some “pretty big fixed coupons” as long as you’re prepared to pay the eventual realized inflation rate. That said, UK 10 year Gilts at c.1.1% look very unappealing though.

FWIW, DB’s rates strategists recently commented on the apparent inconsistency between nominal and inflation rates: as a reminder since 1971, UK inflation has averaged 5.3%, and only 45 out of 152 countries have averaged less than 5%. So although the last couple of decades have seen much lower inflation than that average, Reid concludes that “it would take a brave person to receive a low fixed income (e.g. government bonds) for any length of time with all the transitory, cyclical and structural inflation in the pipeline.”

 
end
 

end

UK/EUROPEAN / GAS PRICES//NATURAL GAS SHORTAGES

Prices rise on a daily basis trying to destroy demand.  The goal to avert risk of winter shortage

(Kemp/Reuters)

Europe’s Gas Prices Surge To Avert Risk Of Winter Shortage

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 05:00 AM

By John Kemp, Reuters energy analyst and reporter

Europe’s gas and electricity prices are setting record highs on a daily basis and rising at an accelerating rate as the market tries to destroy enough demand to protect depleted inventories ahead of the winter.  Gas storage sites in the European Union and United Kingdom are currently just under 76% full, compared with a ten-year seasonal average of almost 90%, according to data compiled by Gas Infrastructure Europe.

In the last decade, storage has emptied by an average of 57 percentage points over winter, but depletion is highly variable, ranging from a minimum of 38 points in 2013/14 to a maximum of 71 points in 2017/18.

If this winter sees an average drawdown, storage sites would be reduced to just 19% full by next spring, the second lowest for a decade, leaving the region with a persistent gas shortage next year.

If the winter sees a moderately strong draw, in the 75th percentile, storage would be reduced by 68 percentage points to a record low of just 8% next spring, increasing the probability supply will actually run out in some areas. 

If the winter sees a maximum draw, similar to 2017/18, storage would be almost exhausted by next spring, making local shortages almost inevitable.

Futures prices are rising to avert this threat by rationing demand now to conserve inventories and reduce the risk of running out later in the winter.

Sharply rising prices are the reason wholesale markets (such as European gas) rarely run into physical shortages, unlike retail markets (U.K. gasoline and diesel) where price rises are typically more limited for commercial and political reasons.

Europe’s gas and electricity prices are likely to remain elevated until there is clear evidence that they have begun to reduce demand and conserve inventories.

There are tentative signs the inventory situation has already improved slightly since late August in response to much higher prices, but the market may need a much stronger signal of conservation before prices fall.

The most likely early signs of conservation are temporary factory closures (especially energy-intensive users); reductions in central and local government energy consumption (street lighting and building temperatures); and reductions in commercial and residential consumption (building temperatures).

Until there is a clear signal consumers have begun to respond by reducing gas use, prices are likely to remain exceptionally high to avert a much worse situation early next year.

end

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

AZERBAIJAN/IRAN
 

Watch Azerbaijan

(courtesy Robert H)

 
 

Rumors float that Iran will launch an attack on Azerbaijan soon. They have 3,000 or more large speed boats that can be used as attack drones against enemy boats and ships. Azerbaijan does sit on the Caspian sea where Iran has those boats. But anything that happens there will be with the pleasure of Russia, who can shut it all down in minutes, if they choose. 
An official with Azerbaijan stated today that when they go to war with Iran they will totally defeat them and split them into four regions . 
Since Azerbaijan is not even close to having the force to defeat Iran, with around 100,000 troops against Iran’s hundreds of thousands…it is likely that the official spoke out of turn and gave away the plot. In other words, if and when a war starts with Iran – Azerbaijan will likely have the back up of Turkey, Israel and perhaps the US to defeat Iran. Although with a Biden any promises made are empty. 

It seems obvious that something is being planned in a conflict against Iran, and Iran is taking the bait so far. Whether it is to discredit them or really have a longer term war is not clear. 
As far as Russia is concerned, it is not known what they will do. My guess is that they would sit it out unless their interests were threatened. China may be more inclined to interfere, except that would require the to put Taiwan on a back burner and most unlikely with their internal financial and economic issues. They can ill afford a foreign affair, although they are occupying Bagram in Afghanistan which they may use as a operating base to assist Iran. 

end

 

 

end

6.Global Issues

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

Jerusalem post

This is a big story!!  A private study of 4800 members of Sheba hospital in TelAviv show dramatically that after two doses of Pfizer the level of antibodies in the blood drops hugely.  Question: why on earth are they vaccinating?

(Jerusalem post)

 

Antibody levels decrease after two doses of Pfizer vaccine – study

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/antibody-levels-decrease-after-two-doses-of-pfizer-vaccine-study-681260

Over 4,800 staff members of Sheba participated in the study. They were invited to undergo periodical serological tests that measure the level of antibodies in the blood for a period of six months.

3D print of HIV surface protein gp120. An antibody also is attached at the top (green and blue). When antibodies stick to viruses, they may prevent or limit infection of host cells.  (photo credit: NIH)
3D print of HIV surface protein gp120. An antibody also is attached at the top (green and blue). When antibodies stick to viruses, they may prevent or limit infection of host cells.
(photo credit: NIH)
 
 
Antibody levels decrease rapidly after two doses of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine, a study by researchers at the Sheba Medical Center published Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine showed.
 
The research also showed the probability that different groups of individuals – based on age and general health status – will find themselves below a certain antibody threshold after a period of six months.
 
The hope is that these findings will help identify the levels associated with different clinical outcomes, for example, offering good protection against serious symptoms, Prof. Gili Regev-Yochay, one of the authors of the paper, said.
 
 
Over 4,800 staff members of Sheba participated in the study. They were invited to undergo periodical serological tests that measure the level of antibodies in the blood for a period of six months after receiving the two doses of the Pfizer vaccine with an interval of three weeks.
 
All participants underwent between one and seven tests.

 Health worker prepares a Covid-19 vaccine at a temporary Clalit health care center in Jerusalem, October 3, 2021.  (credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)Health worker prepares a Covid-19 vaccine at a temporary Clalit health care center in Jerusalem, October 3, 2021. (credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)

 
“We saw that the decline in antibody level is very rapid,” Regev-Yochay said at a press briefing.
 
Although women and younger people tend to start at a higher level of antibodies, the decline is similar regardless of gender and age.
 
“One of our goals was to understand how likely different groups of individuals are to find themselves below a certain threshold after a period of time,” Regev-Yochay said.
 
According to the study, after six months, a healthy woman between the ages of 18 and 45 has a 2.5% probability of having an antibody level below 16 – where antibodies are generally considered absent – and 68% to have one below 256.
 
The starting point is on average several hundred.
 
The percentages of the probability of having an antibody level under 16 and under 256 become 5% and 79%, respectively, for women ages 45-65, and 6% and 81% for a woman older than 65.
 
For healthy men, the numbers are moderately higher in the first age group (respectively 4% and 75%) and the gap with women widens as they are older: A healthy man between 45 and 65 has an 11% probability of having an antibody level below 16, and 89% probability of having one below 256. For men over 65, the percentages are 15% and 92%.
 
When it comes to immunocompromised people, all age groups, men and women, have between 93% and 99% probability of having an antibody level under 256 after six months, and one in two men over 65 has an antibody level below 16.
 
However, obese individuals, surprisingly, who are known to be at risk of a more severe form of disease, appeared to have a less significant decrease in antibody level than healthy individuals. Whether this means that they are also better-protected remains to be seen, Regev-Yochay noted.
 
“Eventually, I hope we will understand the correlation between the antibody level and the degree of disease,” she said. “We know that there is some form of correlation, but we are looking for thresholds. For example, we would like to be able to know that people whose level is under 256 might not be protected anymore from getting infected but are protected from severe disease, or those who are under 32 might get ill enough to be hospitalized in intensive care, but not to die, and so on and so forth.”
 
In the future, these evaluations might help understand who needs further shots and when.
 
Asked about whether the rapid decline in antibody level is also going to occur after the booster, the professor said the study does not offer answers.
 
“We can see that after the booster the starting antibody level is much higher than after two shots, which is an encouraging sign,” Regev-Yochay remarked.
 
The expert expressed support for Israel’s decision to give a booster to all the population in light of the epidemiological situation it found itself.
 
In addition, she said that other studies, especially conducted in the United Kingdom, appear to suggest that a longer interval between the first two doses might offer longer protection.
 
 
end
 
My goodness…
 
Israeli health ministry is considering asking newly vaccinated people to avoid working out
(Jerusalem Post)
 

Health Ministry to consider asking newly vaccinated to avoid working out

The Health Ministry may ask newly vaccinated people to avoid exercise for a week due to a small number of myocarditis cases.

An illustrative photo of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine. (photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)
An illustrative photo of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine.
(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)
 
 
Individuals vaccinated with the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine may be asked to avoid strenuous exercise and other physical activity for one week after receiving each dose due to cases of myocarditis that were detected in a small percentage of vaccinated people, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
 
In a slide deck prepared for the Health Ministry’s advisory committee for epidemic control and coronavirus vaccines, which the Post reviewed, some health officials in the Epidemiology Division of the Health Ministry are recommending that individuals “avoid strenuous activity for one week after their second dose of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines.”
 
Casual walking, stretching, working while standing and housework would all be acceptable.
 
 
 
If accepted, the guidelines that are given to vaccinated people after getting the jab would be updated.
 
The recommendation comes on the heels of a study published late Wednesday night showing that one dose of the Pfizer vaccine increased the risk of heart inflammation – however, cases were usually mild and the majority were among young males.
 
“We recommend that everyone, in particular adolescents and young men aged under 30 avoid strenuous activity, such as intense exercise, for one week after the first and second doses,” the slide deck said. 
 
It defined high-intensity exercise as circuit training, vigorous forms of weight training, sprinting and swimming longer distances.
 
The officials said that high-functioning athletes that would be concerned about losing their conditioning could consider “downgrading their level of exercise” to a low intensity.
 
 
A member of the vaccine panel told the Post that although the matter would be discussed at the next meeting, most committee members are currently opposed to it.
 
 
END
 
There are many religious groups that will not take the vaccine if they knew that Pfizer used human fetal tissue in the making of this gene therapy pharmaceutical
(zerohedge)

Leaked Emails Reveal Pfizer Execs Sought To Conceal Use Of Aborted Fetal Cells In Covid-19 Vaccine Program

 

A Pfizer employee turned whistleblower has come forward with leaked internal emails which reveal corporate executives wanted staff to conceal the company’s use of human fetal tissue in laboratory testing of the Covid-19 vaccine

Melissa Strickler, a manufacturing quality auditor, sat down with Project Veritas for the fifth installment of their COVID vaccine investigative series, where she described the executives as being “deceptive in their emails.”

For example:

“From the perspective of corporate affairswe want to avoid having the information on fetal cells floating out thereThe risk of communicating this right now outweighs any potential benefit we could see, particularly with general members of the public who may take this information and use it in ways we may not want out there. We have not received any questions from policy makers or media on this issue in the last few weeks, so we want to avoid raising this if possible,” wrote Vanessa Gelman, Pfizer Senior Director of Worldwide Research.

We have been trying as much as possible to not mention the fetal cell lines…One or more cell lines with an origin that can be traced back to human fetal tissue has been used in laboratory tests associated with the vaccine program,” Gelman added.

It appears that the company wanted to avoid handing pro-life individuals opposed to the vaccine with a religious exemption.

Pfizer Chief Scientific Officer, Philip Dormitzer, wrote: “HEK293T cells, used for the IVE assay, are ultimately derived from an aborted fetus. On the other hand, the Vatican doctrinal committee has confirmed that they consider it acceptable for Pro-Life believers to be immunized. Pfizer’s official statement couches the answer well and is what should be provided in response to an outside inquiry.”

 

via Project Veritas

end
You have to see this one!!
(Bitchute)

Dr_Daniel_Nagase__Something_Malicious_Is_Going_On_-_Patients_are_Left_in_a_Corner_to_Die_Without_Tx

 
 
 
 
Dr_Daniel_Nagase__Something_Malicious_Is_Going_On_-_Patients_are_Left_in_a_Corner_to_Die_Without_Tx

 

https://www.bitchute.com/video/sTQdQS7az0f5/

 
 END
 
Finland joins Sweden and Denmark by limiting use of Moderna’s jab in young men due to increase in myocarditis.
(zerohedge0

Finland Joins Sweden & Denmark By Limiting Use Of Moderna’s Jab In Young Men

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 07:02 AM

Finland became the latest Scandinavian country to impose new restrictions on the use of Moderna’s COVID jab, announcing Thursday that it would halt use of the jab for younger males due to the risk of rare but harmful side effects, including heart inflammation.

Following in the footsteps of Sweden and Denmark, the director of Finland’s health institute said the country would instead give the Pfizer jab to men born in 1991 or later. Presently, patients age 12 and older can be vaccinated in Finland.

Mika Salminen, the director of Finland’s health institute, blamed the new restrictions on data collected in a Nordic study.

“A Nordic study involving Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark found that men under the age of 30 who received Moderna Spikevax had a slightly higher risk than others of developing myocarditis,” he said.

Yesterday, Swedish and Danish health officials announced they would pause the use of the Moderna vaccine for all young adults and children, citing the same as-yet-unpublished unpublished study.

The Finns said the Nordic study would be published within a couple of weeks. Preliminary data has already been sent to the EMA for further assessment. The EMA, which is the pan-EU medicines regulator, determined back in July that rare cases of heart inflammation had been detected in some younger male patients.

Regulators in the US, as well as the WHO, have repeatedly insisted that the risks of the mRNA jabs are far outweighed by their benefits. Moderna executives have stepped up to defend their jab, while Italy’s Health Minister Roberto Speranza told reporters on Thursday that Italy wasn’t planning to suspend or limit use of the Moderna jab and said European countries should work together more closely to coordinate better.

end

UC Irvine Director Of Medical Ethics Placed On ‘Investigatory Leave’ Over Challenge To Vaccine Mandate

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 11:05 AM

The University of California, Irvine has placed their Director of Medical EthicsDr. Aaron Kheriaty, on ‘investigatory leave’ after he challenged the constitutionality of the UC’s vaccine mandate in regards to individuals who have recovered from Covid and have naturally-acquired immunity.

Last month Kheriaty filed a suit in Federal court over the mandate.

Natural immunity following Covid infection is equal to (indeed, superior to) vaccine-mediated immunity. Thus, forcing those with natural immunity to be vaccinated introduces unnecessary risks without commensurate benefits—either to individuals or to the population as a whole—and violates their equal protection rights guaranteed under the Constitution’s 14th Amendment,” Kheriaty wrote in a Sep. 21 blog post.

“Expert witness declarations in support of our case include, among others, a declaration from distinguished UC School of Medicine faculty members from infectious disease, microbiology/immunology, cardiology, endocrinology, pediatrics, OB/Gyn, and psychiatry,” the post continues (click here to read the rest).

…there is now considerable evidence that Covid recovered individuals may be at higher risk of vaccine adverse effects compared to those not previously infected (as seen in studies herehere, and here, among others). -Dr. Aaron Kheriaty

In a Wednesday update, Kheriaty writes that he’s been placed on ‘investigatory leave’ over his failure to comply with the mandate:

Via Human Flourishing:

Here is the latest move by the University of California in response to my lawsuit in Federal court challenging their vaccine mandate on behalf of Covid-recovered individuals with natural immunity. Last Thursday Sept 30th at 5:03 PM I received this letter from the University informing me that, as of the following morning, I was being placed on “Investigatory Leave” for my failure to comply with the vaccine mandate. I was given no opportunity to contact my patients, students, residents, or colleagues and let them know I would disappear for a month. Rather than waiting for the court to make a ruling on my case, the University has taken preemptive action:

You might be thinking, a month of paid leave doesn’t sound so bad. But the language is misleading heresince half of my income from the University comes from clinical revenues generated from seeing my patients, supervising resident clinics, and engaging in weekend and holiday on-call duties. So while on leave my salary is significantly cut. Furthermore, my contract stipulates that I am not able to conduct any patient care outside the University: to see my current patients, or to recoup my losses by moonlighting as a physician elsewhere, would violate the terms of my contract.

It came as no surprise that, since my request for a preliminary injunction was not granted by the court, the University would immediately begin procedures to dismiss me. However, in the complicated legal game of three-dimensional chess I did not anticipate this particular development: the current administrative designation, where I am neither able to work at the University nor permitted to pursue work elsewhere, was not a development I had anticipated. The University may be hoping this pressure will lead me to resign “voluntarily,” which would remove grounds for my lawsuit: if I resign prior to being terminated by the University, I have no legal claim of harm.

I have no intention at this time of resigning, withdrawing my lawsuit, or having an unnecessary medical intervention forced on me, in spite of these challenging circumstances. You may be wondering about the CA Department of Public Health vaccine mandate mentioned in the University’s letter above: yes, I am subject to two mandates, the UC mandate as a faculty member and the CA State mandate as a healthcare provider. Regarding the latter mandate, I filed a similar lawsuit in Federal court last Friday against the State Public Health Department. I will post more later on that case as it develops.

Although this is a challenging time for me and my family, at this time I remain convinced that this course of action is worthwhile. I am grateful for your ongoing encouragement, prayers, and support. I want my readers to know that am taking legal action not primarily for myself, but for all those who have no voice and whose Constitutional rights are being steamrolled by these mandates. As I wrote in my first post:

In my position, I came to see the importance of representing those whose voices were silenced, and to insist upon the right of informed consent and informed refusal. I have nothing personal to gain by this lawsuit and a lot to lose professionally. In the end, my decision to challenge these mandates came down to this question: How can I continue to call myself a medical ethicist if I fail to do what I am convinced is morally right under pressure?

Many of you have asked how you can support me and my efforts to challenge coercive mandates. My first answer is to consider becoming a paid subscriber to this newsletter if you are not already, and share this newsletter with others who are interested in following these issues. In the coming weeks I will be expanding my work on this Substack platform with live podcasts and audience Q&A for paid subscribers.

(Subscribe here)

For those who may wish to contribute more: I serve as Senior Fellow and Director of the Program in Health & Human Flourishing at the Zephyr Institute in Palo Alto, California. For the foreseeable future, the Program I direct there will focus on gathering and supporting experts, scholars, and leaders who are questioning various aspects of our response to this pandemic, and who are offering more effective solutions to the challenges we are facing. You can contribute to my work at the Zephyr Institute by making a donation HERE and specifying that you want your gift to support “Dr. Kheriaty’s work in the Health and Human Flourishing Program.”

This legal fight is important not only to set appropriate limits to vaccine mandates. It is also important for the future that—now in this crucial moment—we refuse to allow our institutions to set dangerous and unjust precedents. Today’s precedents could later facilitate even more coercive mandates and infringements on civil liberties by unelected officials, done during a declared “state of exception” or emergency that has no defined terminus—a dangerous precedent for a democratic society.

I want to thank all of you for being a part of this movement and for engaging with and encouraging my work on this issue. I could not do this without you.

*  *  *

Kheriaty’s situation is similar to that of Canadian ethics professor, Dr. Julie Ponesse, who made headlines last month after filming a now-viral tear-filled statement before she was fired by Huron University College in Ontario

end
This is awful and it will be a death sentence to these children
(zerohedge)

Pfizer Asks FDA To Approve COVID Jab For Children As Young As 5

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 12:15 PM

Nearly three weeks after Pfizer and BioNTech released data purporting to show that their COVID jab is safe and effective for children between the ages of 5 and 11, the two companies confirmed Thursday that they had officially asked the FDA to approve their jab for emergency use for children in that age group.

According to the NYT, should the FDA grant this approval, it would make another 28MM Americans (all young children) eligible for the jab. The FDA has reassured Pfizer that it will “move quickly” on the request. A meeting has been tentatively scheduled for Oct. 26 to review the data and consider the emergency approval. A decision on emergency approval is expected some time between Halloween and Thanksgiving.

Parents across the country are waiting on the FDA’s decision. Now that California has become the first state in the country to require children to be vaccinated to attend school (be it private or public), the FDA’s approval could spur similar measures from other states.

Per the NYT, whether the emergency authorization is extended will depend not only on the strength of the clinical trial data, but on whether they could prove to regulators that they are properly manufacturing a new pediatric formulation of the vaccine. This new formulation would only include about one-third of the adult dosage. Producing this new formulation will require Pfizer to add more diluent to the jab.

Dr. Janet Woodcock, the acting FDA commissioner, said last week that children might require “a different dosage or formulation from that used in an older pediatric population or adults.”

The FDA will also have to examine the purity and stability of mass-produced pediatric doses to ensure that the “quality” and potency matches that of the doses given to children during the trials.

While one in every six Americans infected with COVID was under the age of 18, even the NYT acknowledges that “children rarely become severely ill” from COVID.

Pfizer’s submission coincides with the release of new study data which appears to confirm that the protection provided by the Pfizer jab starts to wane after a couple of months – even earlier than many experts had expected.

It also comes as three northern European countries have restricted use of the Moderna jab – which, like Pfizer’s jab, is based on mRNA technology – among younger patients amid worries that the threat of rare side effects might outweigh the benefit of whatever protection is provided by the jab.

 
GLOBAL ISSUES
Charles Hugh Smith explains to us why shortages are permanent and not transitory
(Charles Hugh Smith)

Why Shortages Are Permanent: Global Supply Shortages Make Fantastic Financial Sense

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The era of abundance was only a short-lived artifact of the initial boost phase of globalization and financialization.

Global corporations didn’t go to all the effort to establish quasi-monopolies and cartels for our convenience–they did it to ensure reliably large profits from control and scarcity. Not all scarcities are artificial, i.e. the result of cartels limiting supply to keep prices high; many scarcities are real, and many of these scarcities can be traced back to the stripping out of redundancy / multiple suppliers of industrial essentials to streamline efficiency and eliminate competition.

Recall that competition and abundance are anathema to profits. Wide open competition and structural abundance are the least conducive setting for generating reliably ample profits, while quasi-monopolies and cartels that control scarce supplies are the ideal profit-generating machines.

The incentives to expand the number of suppliers, i.e. increase competition, are effectively zero. America’s corporations spent $11 trillion buying back their own stocks over the past decade; that’s equal to the combined GDP of Japan, Germany and Italy. If adding new suppliers to the global supply chain were profitable, some of that $11 trillion would have exploited those vast profits.

The financial reality is attempting to compete with an established cartel that has captured regulatory and political mechanisms is a foolhardy waste of capital. If firing up a new supplier of essential solvents, etc. was so captivatingly profitable, the why wouldn’t Google and Apple take a slice of their billions in cash and go make some easy money?

The barriers to entry are high and the markets are limited. A great many specialty lubricants, solvents, alloys, wires, etc. are essential to the manufacture of all the consumer and industrial products that are sourced globally, but the markets are narrow: manufacturers need X amount of a specialty solvent, not 10X.

Back in the good old days before globalization and financialization conquered the world, corporations lined up three reliable suppliers for every critical component, as this redundancy alleviated supply chain chokeholds. But to keep those three suppliers in business, you need to spread the order book among all three. Nobody will keep a facility open if it’s only used occasionally when the primary supplier runs into a spot of bother.

And so now we’re all seated at the banquet of consequences flowing from stripping out redundancy and competition, and ceding control of supply chains to quasi-monopolies and cartels. Scarcities are their source of profits, and since it makes zero financial sense to spend a fortune building a plant to make solvents, lubricants, alloys, etc. in limited quantities in markets dominated by quasi-monopolies and cartels, shortages are a permanent feature of the 21st century global economy.

The era of abundance was only a short-lived artifact of the initial boost phase of globalization and financialization; now that the consolidation is complete, shortages make fantastic financial sense.

By all means thank Corporate America for squandering $11 trillion to further enrich the top 0.1% and insiders. Alas, there was no better use for all those trillions than further enriching the already-super-rich.

 
END
Global food prices hitting decade highs
(zerohedge)

Global Food Prices Hit Fresh Decade High

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 01:40 PM

Global food prices are outrageously high, and things don’t look to be changing anytime soon. Early Thursday, Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released monthly data on the state of food prices that showed global food prices rose for a second consecutive month in September to reach a new decade high, driven by gains for cereals and vegetable oils. 

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities (including cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, and sugar), rose 1.2% in September to 130 points and 32.8% higher than in September 2020. ed

The latest rise in the FFPI was primarily driven by “higher prices of most cereals and vegetable oils. Dairy and sugar prices were also firmer, while the meat price sub-index remained stable,” FAO said. 

Compound soaring freight costs on land and sea, along with supply chain disruptions, have left some grocery chains with no other choice but to raise prices and or to leave shelves bare as food shortages persist. An executive of Kroger, one of the largest US supermarket chains, warned last month that grocery prices are set to move even higher as inflation sets in. 

Inflationary pressures prompted the White House to calm discontent among working-poor families who allocate a high percentage of their incomes to basic and essential items. The Biden administration acknowledged inflation as a real concern last month (only nine months late). The administration has raised food stamps by 25%

Besides rising demand (some of which has been artificially produced by massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus), bad weather, and supply chain disruptions, there could be another emerging issue that may pressure food prices even higher, that is, the soaring cost of energy is sending fertilizer, a byproduct of natural gas (natgas prices in some areas around the world are at record highs), higher which would mean crop prices will have to rise. There are also issues of greenhouses growing vegetables going dark in Europe because energy and power prices are too high. 

The Federal Reserve’s credibility, or whatever was left of it, continues to wane as the “transitory” inflation narrative falters. 

 
LA PALMA VOLCANO ERUPTION

LIVE: La Palma Volcano Eruption, the Canary Islands (Feed #2) 105 – YouTube

 
 
 
 
 
With the airport closed to ash, one does wonder if this gets worse how people will escape the danger
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmHYQ4oP8yw


Cheers
Robert
 
 
 
 
 
 
Attachments area
 
Preview YouTube video CirstenW “Queen of Intel Drops” Joins Poppy
 
 
Michael Every on the major topics of the day
 
Michael Every…..

The Kobayashi Maru And The Dentist

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 08:21 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

As William Shatner finally goes into space at the age of 90 –to give us his renditions of Space OddityLucy in the Sky with Diamonds, or Rocket Man?– Earth faces a mountain of problems; and markets, once again seizing on only ‘good news’, face the Kobayashi Maru scenario from ‘The Wrath of Khan’: a no-win scenario.

At one point Wednesday, natural gas prices in the UK and EU were up 40% on the day. That is not a supply shock: it’s a photon torpedo. Then Russia’s President Putin suggested he might have some spare gas lying around, and prices retreated to levels still as painful as William Shatner’s singing. Crisis over? Not until gas goes all the way back down again: and even if Russia magically fills the gas gap, it would still underline what an enormous geostrategic error the EU made in thinking energy supplies are not a pressure point on it – just as critics said would be the case when Angela Merkel opted for NordStream 2. When she goes to the dentist, does she opt for the cheapest one possible, or the one she trusts who costs more? As the old joke goes, realpolitik is getting your teeth done but, from the dentist’s chair, grabbing them somewhere important, and saying: “Do we have an understanding?” What else is there to understand?

In Congress, which knows from both pulling teeth and such grabbing, Mitch McConnell ”has blinked” by offering the Democrats a path to a short-term, small-cap debt-ceiling increase out to the end of the year. Except the Republicans are reportedly still going to insist on linking a proper end-year debt-ceiling hike –which would be more embarrassing for the Democrats to have to vote on again— to reconciliation, which again uses up that bullet there rather than on the desired elements of Progressive spending bills. In short, this crisis isn’t over yet either.

In Zurich, the US and China agreed to set up a virtual meeting between President Biden and Xi Jinping by year end – just as he will be tied up with the debt ceiling again. As the wags ask, is it better held on China’s Zoom or China’s TikTok for maximum security? It’s good for the US and China to be talking; and for the US to repeat it doesn’t want a Cold War, even as it pushes military alliances, tech controls, and threatens tariffs and new trade tools; and for China to say the same as it de facto decouples parts of its economy too. Yet Minxin Pei opines: “as security competition overshadows US-China relations, it will be nearly impossible for them to cooperate even on issues of mutual interest, such as climate change and future pandemics. All bilateral issues will be viewed only through the lens of national security and evaluated in terms of whether modest cooperation might strengthen the other’s security.” He adds the historical analogy that the pre-WW1 UK and Germany were tied together by trade –and royal blood– more than the US and China are today. Meanwhile, as Taiwan claims China will be capable of an invasion by 2025, the Global Times editor tweets: “PLA already has the ability NOW to liberate Taiwan at one stroke, why has to wait until 2025? That the mainland hasn’t taken the action is a goodwill of Beijing to treasure cross-Straits peace. I worry that the goodwill could be abused by Taiwan and the war is triggered suddenly.”

US Secretary of State Blinken, who wasn’t in Zurich, argues the energy crisis underlines the need for a push for green energy, which it does – while overlooking the fact that the green push also precipitated the crisis. Blinken is also asking China to “act responsibly and to deal effectively with any challenges” over Evergrande. On that note, the Financial Times repeats research showing in 2008, 75% of Chinese houses were bought by first-time buyers, but in 2018 this had fallen to 15%, with the rest snapped up by investors – as enough homes to house 90m people sit empty. Is this “responsible”, or Marxist ‘productive capital’? Can markets reasonably expect things to look the same when the dust settles? If so, it says a lot about markets and not a lot about Marxists. But what lies on the other side if not more bubbles? We simply don’t know. Higher growth is not likely to be a key part of it, however.

But of course, the deepest Kobayashi Maru challenge sits with central banks. With inflation raging, what are they to do? Tighten policy? Like that will help on top of tax hikes and higher prices! (**RED ANECDOTE ALERT** My favourite supermarket sushi just hiked prices on my favourite set by 40%. Set phasers to ‘less sushi’, sadly.) How about easing policy? Like that will help either!

We have already seen the RBNZ opt for the former path. In Australia, the rates market is certain hikes are coming. Poland just hiked. The chatter is the BOE will follow: or at least this is reportedly the UK Treasury’s expectation, and more so given the government openly flags it wants a high wage, high productivity economy when the former is the infinitely easier of the two to achieve, historically. And Fed tapering apparently looms. One wonders at how this will play out, and not even in the long term.  

Trying the other path, the ECB “will discuss boosting its regular asset purchases once the pandemic-era emergency stimulus comes to an end, but any such increase is by no means guaranteed,” says Governing Council member Muller. In short, while the Eurozone “recovery” –the recessionary energy crisis aside– will allow the ECB to end its EUR1.85trn pandemic bond-buying program in March 2022, the idea is already being floated of then compensating by increasing QE by another EUR20bn a month! And, of course, the EU is now all for subsidizing energy prices, which will only see those prices increase further, and likewise increase the whip-hand that President Putin now holds.

I repeat, neither monetary nor fiscal policy will be of much help unless they address the supply side of things, which right now they don’t. On which note, our recent ‘In Deep Ship’ report argued that smaller economies would logically start looking at diversifying trade to smaller vessels and/or consider launching national carriers as a response to current shipping snarls. As Splash247.com reports, US carrier Matson has now started a direct Shanghai-Auckland service using 707TEU and 516TEU vessels, on top of a Taiwanese carrier launching a 1,700 and 2,700TEU service between Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Nansha, Shekou and Tauranga. Moreover, “An extreme shortage of liner calls to New Zealand in recent months has prompted talk among exporters of the need to create a national shipping line.”

Such structural re-workings of the Kobayashi Maru scenario —which themselves open up very worrying geopolitical scenarios!— are arguably the only way one can defeat it, as Captain Kirk infamously did. Yet for most central banks, and governments, the greater likelihood is that they will boldly go into the mission to ‘Build Back Better’….and then end up like Lieutenant Saavik in her attempt:

“Activate escape pods. Send out the Log Buoy. …All hands abandon ship. Repeat, …all hands abandon ship.”

end 

 
 

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil Surges After Energy Department Says No Plan To Tap Oil Reserves

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 10:41 AM

So much for the threat that the Biden admin would sell oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Moments ago, in response to mounting concerns that the US would sell up to 60 million barrels of oil from the SPR (discussed earlier), the Energy Department has no plan to take action “at this time” to tap into the nation’s oil reserves, an Energy Department spokesperson said Thursday. The comments come after a report yesterday about U.S. energy secretary Jennifer Granholm raising the prospect of releasing crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve.

The news sent oil sharply higher, with both WTI and Brent spiking more than $1 on the news.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

This is a huge scandal.  We now have six corrupt officials along with ex Premier crooked Berejiklian thrown out of office.  It seems that they received huge amounts of money in order to lockdown the province.

No doubt we will see the Premier of Victoria province involved in the same scandal.

(Ethan Huff/Natural News)

Big Pharma payola scandal erupts in Australia, takes down six corrupt officials and Australian Premier Berejiklian

Bypass censorship by sharing this link:
 
Image: Big Pharma payola scandal erupts in Australia, takes down six corrupt officials and Australian Premier Berejiklian
 

(Natural News) More than half a dozen staff members of New South Wales, Australia Premier Gladys Berejiklian have resigned in shame over their involvement in a massive Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) bribery scheme.

Berejiklian and her comrades reportedly took tens of millions of dollars from Big Pharma in exchange for pushing lockdowns and now “vaccines,” destroying countless lives and businesses in the process.

According to a former Australian member of parliament (MP), Pfizer and AstraZeneca both paid lobbyists to push vaccine mandates on the people, ensuring a steady stream of ill-gotten profits.

Just prior to ousting herself, Berejiklian was seen on a jumbo screen at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney telling children who were being herded in as part of a mass vaccination drive that getting jabbed for the Chinese Virus is necessary to stay “safe” and “healthy.”

Clive Palmer, head of the United Australia Party, says that Berejiklian was promised that she would not be charged in a corruption probe if she imposed a vaccine mandate. She allegedly accepted that offer, and has since resigned from her position.

Chances are this is only the tip of the iceberg, and more indictments and resignations are soon on the way – both in Australia and abroad. Perhaps an end to the jab mandates will soon come based on all these revelations.

The entire covid cabal needs to be taken down with haste

Berejiklian claims that it was a “difficult decision” for her to resign, which came about right after a corruption watchdog group announced that it was looking into her “alleged misconduct.”

Her deputy premier John Barilaro also resigned, citing constant pressure from the media and an ongoing defamation case against YouTuber Jordan Shanks, whom Barilaro says is a “big reason” why he has officially checked out of politics.

Shanks, meanwhile, claims that Barilaro is lying and falsely accusing him of being a “racist.” Barilaro further called Shanks “a conman to the core, powered by spaghetti.”

With these two Branch Covidians gone, New South Wales (NSW) is said to be in a state of “political disarray and chaos.” Many are wondering what will happen next, and how soon the region might be able to reach “post-Covid freedom.”

In addition to Berejiklian and Barilaro, NSW has lost a senior cabinet minister and three veteran Coalition members of parliament. It is also expected that a new treasurer will be needed to replace the existing one.

Sometimes political disarray and chaos is needed to root out the snakes, and one can only hope that the same thing happens in the United States. Right now, Americans are having to contend with an illegitimate regime that was not lawfully elected, but that is trying to force the country into the same tyranny that was imposed on NSW.

With this wave of resignations down under, the hope is that it will spread all around the world to every place where Fauci Flu tyranny is sweeping the land. We the People must push for every last covid criminal to either resign or be removed – no exceptions.

“You know, when this virus thing first started and I began hearing things about ‘big pharma,’ I was skeptical,” admitted one commenter at Creative Destruction Media about how he felt in the very beginning of all this.

“But now I am fully believing this whole thing is a multi-billion dollar scamdemic. Now we are finally getting proof and insider knowledge of the corruption involved and it is VERY ugly indeed.”

The latest news about the shockwave of resignations that are likely coming as more Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) fraud gets exposed can be found at Collapse.news

 END

Euro/USA 1.1564 UP .0009 /EUROPE BOURSES /ALL GREEN

USA/ YEN 111.34  DOWN  0.063 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3610  UP   0.0019 

 

USA/CAN 1.2577  DOWN .0009  (  CDN DOLLAR UP 9 BASIS PTS )

 

Early THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro IS UP BY 9 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1564 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 735.24 PTS OR 3.27% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.73% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN

 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

EUROPEAN BOURSES CLOSED ALL GREEN

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED UP 735.24 pts or 3.27% 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.73%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 149.34 PTS OR 0.54% 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1761.60

silver:$22.74-

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yr: 1.530% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield 2.084 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 94.11 DOWN 15  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.36%  UP 0  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0085% UP 3 full   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.46%//  UP 0  in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:  0.89  UP 3    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 43 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO –.181% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.05% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR  THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1537  DOWN    0.0058 or 58 basis points

USA/Japan: 111.34  DOWN .147 OR YEN UP 15  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3554 DOWN .0071// DOWN 71   BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN  54 basis points to 1.2637

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED XX)..  

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.4635

TURKISH LIRA:  8.89  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.075%

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.512 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.062 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.40 UP 40  CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 83.59 PTS OR 1.18% 

 

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 235.49 PTS OR 1.55% 

 

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 87.19  PTS OR  1.33% 

 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  DOWN 149.50  PTS OR  1.67%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 338.48 PTS OR 1.30% 

 

WTI Oil price; 77.55 12:00  PM  EST

Brent Oil: 80.97 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:    72.48  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.16 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 16 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES  TO –.181 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM : 78.79//

BRENT :  82.44

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 1.576.. UP 5 basis points…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.135 UP 5  basis points..

EURO/USA 1.1553 DOWN 0.0002   ( 2 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.63 UP .229 ( YEN DOWN 23 BASIS POINTS/..

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.21  DOWN 6  cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm   Britain Pound/USA: 1.3614 UP .0022  

the Turkish lira close: 8.88  DOWN 0 BASIS PTS//EXTREMELY DEADLY

the Russian rouble 71.74  UP .71  Roubles against the uSA dollar. (UP 71 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar:  1.2551 UP 35 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,-0.181%

The Dow closed UP 337.95 POINTS OR 0.98%

NASDAQ closed UP 120.38 POINTS OR 0.88%

VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.54 CLOSED DOWN 1.96

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 0.124

%//libor dropping like a stone

USA trading day in Graph Form

Crushingly Boring Session Ends With Spoos Failing To Hold 4400

Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 04:07 PM

Following several days of nerve-racking rollercoaster moves in the market, which included 1% swings on 4 of the past 5 days, today’s action – which also culminated with another 1% up day – was crushingly boring…

… as stocks ramped early following news that a debt ceiling disaster has been averted delayed until December, and which pushed all sectors solidly in the green..

… with the Dow scrambling – and failing – to stay above the 50 DMA…

… while spoos even more valiantly tried to defend the critical gamma level of 4,400 following a slow drift lower in the slow afternoon session…

… and also failing.

As a reminder, SpotGamma noted this morning is key for what the market does next as “any additional decline in implied volatility offers a smaller market tailwind, and if we shift over 4400 that tailwind will transition to headwind.”

In other words, the rollercoaster must go on.

Meanwhile, in a repeat of Tuesday’s action, today’s ramp took place even as yields surged with the 10Y rising above 1.57%, the highest level since June…

… only unlike earlier this week, it was the combination of both real rates and breakevens that pushed nominals higher, and while BEs started off on the back foot earlier, they promptly spiked after brent shot up following a statement from the Dept of Energy that the US would not be releasing any SPR oil, contrary to yesterday’s attempts by the Biden admin to jawbone oil lower.

And while the market was quick to forget all about Europe’s energy crisis after a bunch of media outlets yesterday misinterpreted what Putin said (yes, he will give Europe more gas, yes it will require the Nord Stream 2 to be operational, and no, it probably won’t happen in time fr winter), some grasped that it’s about to get much worse, and after tumbling overnight, UK gas futures were better bid all day.

Meanwhile, in what was perhaps the most notable move in the market, bills maturing in mid-October normalized as the threat of a default faded …

…. only to shift forward two months to mid December, where bond traders now expect the next Drop Dead Date to take place.

Indeed, as the chart of US CDS shows, despite dipping modestly, the risk of a default remains quite elevated compared to the past year.

And one final note: containership rates posted their first solid decline today after months of rising…

… only this was not the result of any improvement in supply chain blockages but simply because China suddenly has far less to ship out with much of its producing capacity suffering from brownouts.

Bottom line: nothing has been resolved, the supply chain issues are getting worse, the debt ceiling issue has been punted but hardly addressed, and the S&P closed below its critical gamma level meaning the daily 1% swings will go on…

i) MORNING TRADING

 

end

ii)  USA///DEBT CEILING DEAL

Debt Ceiling “Kink” Shifts To December As Bonds Now Brace For Dec 15 “Drop Dead” Date

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 11:23 AM

Now that we have a debt ceiling deal, with the Senate set to raise the debt ceiling by $480 billion and extend the Deadline to Dec 3, the bond market has shifted the Treasury Bill kink from mid-October by two months, to mid-December.

With the October “kink” normalizing fast, as the rate on the Oct 19 bill falls in line with its comps…

… the bond market has set its sight on mid December as the next drop dead date, with the December “proxy” (Dec 16 Bill rate less Dec 9 Bill rate) soaring.

Commenting on the decision to punt to Dec 3, Goldman writes that this is intended to carry the Treasury to December 3, at which point an additional debt limit increase or suspension would be required. 

According to Goldman, “the amount is higher than we would have anticipated the Treasury would need to get to that date, so there appears to be a good chance that the actual deadline for the next increase will come somewhat later than Dec. 3” which is why the Dec 16 Bills are “kinking” out while the Dec 9 are still relatively normal.

That said, even Goldman notes that the can kicking is not sufficient to last past the end of the year, so it appears likely that Congress will need to address the issue in December as expected, “either as part of the next reconciliation bill, a standalone bill, or part of a spending package for FY22 to extend spending authority past the current expiration, which Congress also set at Dec. 3 when it passed its continuing resolution on Sep. 30.”

USA DATA

Total claims collapse to just 4.2 million as all pandemic benefits end

(zerohedge)

Total Claims Collapse To Just 4.2 Million, Down 20 Million From A Year Ago, As Pandemic Benefits End

 
 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 08:58 AM

Initial jobless claims dropped below their recent range last week, falling to the second lowest level since the COVID-lockdowns crushed the economy. Only 326k Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time last week, down from 364k last week and below the 348k expectation.

Extended benefits also dropped from 2.811 million a week ago to 2.714 million most recently, also below the 2.762 million expected.

But more importantly, now that all emergency benefits have expired, the end of the welfare state is being felt far and wide and after printing regularly above 12 million for much of the summer, and around 25 million a year ago…

…total benefits collapsed to just 4.173 million in week ending Sept 18, down from 5 million a week prior and down more than 20 million from the 24.6 million a year ago!

The nearly 7 million people who have lost benefits in the past two weeks will now be looking for work so look for some fireworks in the October jobs report when it prints one month from tomorrow.

end

Spillover Effect: Baltimore County On Pace For Deadliest Year On Record Amid Chaos In The City

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 01:00 PM

President Biden’s “Build Back Better” strategy and Balitmore’s new mayor, Brandon Scott, are failing – as violent crime becomes a chaotic mess throughout the city. Homicides in the city are expected to exceed 300 for the seventh consecutive year. The city’s social-economic unraveling and violent crime are so bad that spillover is occurring in the county, where homicides are on pace for the deadliest year on record. 

Let’s begin with Baltimore City, where homicides as of Oct. 6 are 260, on track to exceed 300 by the end of the year. Taking a look at cumulative homicide trends for the city, this year is very violent, according to The Baltimore Sun homicide data. 

Despite President Biden’s “unity” calls and “Build Back Better” strategy to revive America, nothing has changed in the Democratic-controlled metro area that lies just north of the White House.

In June, we told readers that “Baltimore’s homicide rate is outpacing the 2020 rate,” and Baltimore City State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby has halted prosecuting minor traffic violations, prostitution, drug possession, and other minor offenses during the virus pandemic, which has made everything worse.

Fast forward to this week, and a spillover in violent crime has spread to Baltimore County (which surrounds, though does not cover, the city). The Baltimore Sun reports the county is on pace for the deadliest year on record – with 42 people having been killed in the county as of last Thursday. In all of 2020, the country recorded 33 homicides, the year before 49. 

While everyone with economic mobility has panic fled the city for the county, violent crime appears to be creeping into suburbia. 

Baltimore has tried violence-reduction strategies, and nothing seems to be working as violent crime continues with no signs of stopping. 

iii) a  IMPORTANT USA/CONTAINER LOGJAMS//shortages//inflation

Kellogg’s trying to mitigate supply disruptions after strikes hit cereal plants across the uSA

(zerohedge)

Kellogg’s To ‘Mitigate Supply Disruptions’ After Strikes Hit Cereal Plants

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 10:11 AM

Kellogg’s has begun to restart production at four U.S. cereal plants, where output came to a screeching halt Tuesday as more than a thousand employees went on a strike over stalled contract negations.

In an emailed response, a Kellogg spokesperson told Bloomberg that plants are in “various stages of preparing for startup.” There was no mention of timelines when full production would resume. “We are implementing contingency plans to mitigate supply disruptions, including using salaried employees and third-party resources to produce food,” the spokesperson added. 

On Tuesday, around 1,400 employees across food plants in Omaha, Nebraska; Battle Creek, Michigan; Lancaster, Pennsylvania; and Memphis, Tennessee, went on strike amid failed discussions over workers’ payment and benefits contract. 

“Kellogg’s response to these loyal, hardworking employees has been to demand these workers give up quality health care, retirement benefits, and holiday and vacation pay,” Anthony Shelton, president of the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union (BCTGM), told Fox News

BCTGM covers the 1,400 members striking across the country, where many of their factories produce Rasin Bran, Froot Loops, Corn Flakes, and Frosted Flakes cereals. 

Shelton said Kellogg’s “continues to threaten to send additional jobs to Mexico if workers do not accept outrageous proposals that take away protections that workers have had for decades.” 

This week’s strike is the first time U.S. cereal workers walked off the job since 1972. 

Many workers are tired of 12-hour shifts and mandatory overtime to meet the increasing demand caused by the virus pandemic. 

“We’re drawing a line in the sand,” Rob Long, a production mechanic who has worked at Kellogg’s Omaha plant for more than a decade, told Bloomberg. 

The Kellogg’s strike shows an increasing shift toward employee power in a labor market plagued by shortages and rising wages could rattle markets. 

b) USA COVID/VACCINE UPDATES//VACCINE MANDATES

Colorado hospital set to deny kidney transplant for unvaxxed woman

(zerohedge)

Colorado Hospital Set To Deny Kidney Transplant For Unvaxxed Woman

 

Now that vaccines are widely available and 56% of the US population is vaccinated (significantly missing President Biden’s Jul. 4 target of 70%), a little less than half of the country is unvaxxed and subjected to shocking and dehumanizing discrimination, making life very stressful. 

Across the country, the hot-button subject entering the fall is COVID vaccination passes for restaurants and football stadiums in certain cities, counties, and or even states. This has made life painful for the unvaxxed (as planned by the administration) who can’t go to their favorite eatery or cheer on their favorite sports team.

However, the latest discrimination story of an unvaxxed person is terrifying.

A Colorado woman with stage 5 kidney failure is scrambling to find a new hospital because she and her donor are unvaxxed, and the hospital system has given them 30 days to get vaccinated or be taken off the transplant list. 

UCHealth, a healthcare system headquartered in Aurora, Colorado, adopted new transplant rules requiring patients to be fully vaccinated. 

“Here I am, willing to be a direct donor to her. It does not affect any other patient on the transplant list,” Jaimee Fougner, Leilani Lutali’s kidney donor, told Colorado-based news station CBS4

 

(credit: Leilani Lutali and Jaimee Fougner)

“How can I sit here and allow them to murder my friend when I’ve got a perfect kidney and can save her life?” Fougner said. 

Lutali received a letter from UCHealth last week explaining she and Fougner had until the end of October to begin the vaccine process, or they would be removed from the transplant list. 

I said I’ll sign a medical waiver. I have to sign a waiver anyway for the transplant itself, releasing them from anything that could possibly go wrong,” said Lutali. “It’s surgery, it’s invasive. I sign a waiver for my life. I’m not sure why I can’t sign a waiver for the COVID shot.”

In August, UCHealth told Lutali that being vaxxed wouldn’t be a requirement for the surgery. “At the end of August, they confirmed that there was no COVID shot needed at that time,” she said. “Fast forward to Sept. 28. That’s when I found out. Jamie learned they have this policy around the COVID shot for both for the donor and the recipient.”

Lutali received this letter from the hospital:

Both met at bible study almost a year ago, and for either religious reasons or too many uncertainties, they refuse to take the vaccine. 

“It’s your choice on what treatment you have. In Leilani’s case, the choice has been taken from her. Her life has now been held hostage because of this mandate,” Fougner added.

They’re still searching for a hospital in Colorado that will do the transplant for unvaxxed people. This is the latest in the shocking discrimination against unvaxxed people

end

Navy SEALs Lawyer: Military Ignoring Natural Immunity

 

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 02:20 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber and Joshua Philipp via The Epoch Times,

 

A U.S. Navy service member is seen getting a COVID-19 vaccine in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, on Dec. 29, 2020. (United States Forces Korea via Getty Images)

The U.S. military is ignoring the protection against infection bestowed by having COVID-19 and recovering, a lawyer representing Navy SEALs who have concerns about COVID-19 vaccines said.

“My clients are seeing for the first time in the military natural immunity is not being recognized as a reason for an exemption to a vaccine,” R. Davis Younts, the lawyer, said on EpochTV’s “Crossroads.”

So it’s very strange and I think it’s reasonable for my clients to ask the question, ‘why is natural immunity demonstrated by positive serology being ignored for this vaccine but it’s not for others?‘” he added.

Military regulations outline how medical exemptions to required vaccines can be granted because of “evidence of immunity based on serologic tests, documented infections, or similar circumstances.”

But the COVID-19 vaccine mandate, which is being imposed on both active-duty and civilian Pentagon employees, does not contain that provision.

A memorandum issued by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in August says that all service members must get fully vaccinated against the virus that causes COVID-19. “Those with previous COVID-19 infection are not considered fully vaccinated,” he said.

An Oct. 1 memo from another senior Pentagon official concerning civilian employees says that “those with previous COVID-19 infection(s) or previous serology are not considered fully vaccinated on that basis for the purposes of this mandate.”

The Navy referred The Epoch Times to the Pentagon, which declined to answer emailed questions, including why natural immunity is not being considered a reason for a medical exemption to the COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

Natural immunity refers to when a person has protection against an illness due to prior infection. In this case, it means protection against COVID-19, which causes COVID-19.

The lack of a carve-out is the prime argument in a lawsuit filed against Austin and other officials last month over the mandate. Two active-duty service members cited Army Regulation 40-562, which states that prior infection is a reason for a medical exemption, in noting they have natural immunity.

Younts is representing SEALs who have been told they will no longer be deployable if they don’t get a COVID-19 vaccine.

The men on the elite fighting force have concerns that are primarily faith-based and are exploring applying for religious exemptions to the mandate. But they also have health concerns.

“Ultimately, one of their main concerns is the sense that they have a conviction to be very careful and thoughtful what they put into their bodies. These are Navy SEALS, right? And they think it’s reasonable to ask the question, ‘why is this vaccine being treated differently?’ We don’t have long-term 5- and 10-year safety studies on the mRNA vaccine,” Younts said.

“They’re asking the question, ‘isn’t there a risk that they’re creating to other people if they get a vaccine that has been shown in some studies to have not just breakthrough cases, but also high viral loads and potentially viral shedding?‘” he added.

The two most widely administered COVID-19 vaccines in the United States were produced on messenger RNA technology. The type of vaccine is new.

Another complaint involves nuances on how the vaccines have been treated by regulators. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved Pfizer’s shot. But the approved version wasn’t available in early September, and there were no plans to make it available in the near future.

“When will the actual FDA-approved vaccine be available for military members?” Younts asked.

A Navy spokesperson told The Epoch Times that no exemption applications have been approved or denied yet. The spokesperson referred The Epoch Times to the Pentagon for other questions. The Pentagon did not answer whether it has obtained doses of Cominarty, the approved version of Pfizer’s shot. The FDA referred The Epoch Times to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health and Human Services, neither of which responded to requests for comment. Pfizer did not return inquiries.

end

c) uSA economic commentaries

Lipson explains what is happening behind the scenes with respect to the two bills that the House and Senate are facing

(Charles Lipson)

Biden, Bargaining, & Betrayal: It’s Not The Top-Line Number… It’s The Bottom-Line Goal

 
 
WEDNESDAY, OCT 06, 2021 – 05:30 PM

Authored by Charles Lipson via RealClearPolitics.com,

The news from Washington is all about back-room negotiations, divisions among Democrats, and their failure to reach a spending deal, so far. It’s an easy story to tell, but the focus on dollars and deals obscures a larger question: What’s really at stake in these negotiations?

First, let’s consider the bargaining and betrayals. Those begin with bipartisan agreement to pass a “roads and highways” bill, which will cost over $1 trillion. To pass it, President Biden explicitly promised Senate Republicans and moderate Democrats that the bill would be considered separately from a larger, more controversial measure to establish new social-welfare programs.

Within hours, Biden tried to renege on his promise. Furious resistance from senators forced him to return to his original position, but the episode left everyone wondering who was in control and whether Biden could be trusted. Even so, the bill did pass the upper chamber with a strong bipartisan majority: 19 Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, joined the 50 Democrats.

Supporters expected the bill to be approved by the House where Democrats hold a slim majority and some Republicans might vote with them on infrastructure, as they had in the Senate. But no. Speaker Nancy Pelosi held up the bill and refused to allow a vote until the House had first passed the social-welfare legislation. Moderate Democrats pushed back and, to appease them, she finally agreed to sever the two bills and allow a vote on roads and bridges first. That vote, which she promised would take place on Sept. 27, never happened. The roadblock was the Congressional Progressive Caucus, led by Pramila Jayapal from Seattle. Faced with their refusal, Pelosi reneged on her public pledge to moderates.

That’s the impasse, as it currently stands. Joe Biden went to Capitol Hill, hoping to convince House Democrats to do something — anything. He failed. The progressives stayed together, holding the infrastructure bill hostage to their larger goal of more social spending.

The progressives’ problem is that, even if they get the welfare bill through the House, they don’t have the votes to pass it in the Senate. A smaller one, maybe, but not the whole wish list. Democrats Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have said they won’t vote for the whole $3.5 trillion package. Those two may have quiet support from a few other moderate Democrats, who are letting Manchin and Sinema take the heat.

Progressives say they have already conceded too much.

They wanted to spend more than $6 trillion on the social bill and “compromised” with the White House for $3.5 trillion. They won’t go any lower, they insist, but nobody really knows if that’s true. Manchin, whose deep red-state gave Biden just 29.7% of the vote, has said he won’t go over $1.5 trillion. This summer, he secretly gave that number in writing to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who never shared it with Pelosi. Now that the number is public, progressives have bitterly rejected it as “far too low” and begun insulting Manchin and Sinema.

There is obviously a deal to be made on “roads and highways,” but any agreement on social-welfare spending will have to be close to Manchin’s number. What’s not clear is whether progressives will continue to hold both bills hostage until they get what they want. That’s the heart of the back-room negotiations, which have revealed deep cleavages among Democrats.

These negotiations, and journalists’ focus on top-line costs, are obviously crucial, but they are only part of the story. The other part is what progressives — and the Biden administration — hope to accomplish and what it would mean for the country. Their goal is not simply to spend a lot of money in this one bill. Their goal is not to pay for it, even though they are perfectly happy to “tax the rich.” These bills are so large that taxes will inevitably fall on the middle class. They seem utterly indifferent to the prospect of higher inflation, fueled by more spending and already at its highest levels in three decades. All those costs are bearable if they advance the progressives’ central goal: to install a whole series of cradle-to-grave social programs, including preschool child care, paid family leave, free college, and so on.

Those programs are extremely difficult to rescind once they’ve begun, so the goal is to get them started. Progressives know — and the whole country should understand — that piling on these vast new programs would be a major step in turning the United States into a European-style social democracy, along the lines of France, Germany, Spain, or Italy.

That transformation began under Franklin Roosevelt and vastly expanded under Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon. The next important step was Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act. If successful, Biden’s effort to add big, new social programs would make him a transformational president, even if he served only one term and accomplished nothing more.

Voters never elected Biden to do that. Nor did they give him and his party anything like the overwhelming majorities FDR and LBJ won when they launched this trajectory. Quite the contrary. Biden won narrowly, and Democrats barely carried Congress. They have a four-vote majority in the House and a 50-50 Senate. Biden himself promised to govern from the center-left, reach across the aisle, and restore normalcy after the tumult of the Trump years.

He has done none of that, ignoring his own promises and his party’s failure to win a mandate for tectonic changes. His plummeting poll numbers show voters realize they have been fooled twice over. First, they thought, wrongly, that Joe Biden was competent. He had decades of Washington experience in the Senate, after all, and served eight years as vice president. That mirage of competence vanished with the humiliating debacle in Afghanistan and the uncontrolled, illegal immigration on the southern border. Second, they believed his promise of moderation. Voters’ reaction to these unhappy realizations can be summarized in two words: buyer’s remorse.

If Biden had been the moderate he advertised himself to be, he would have twisted arms to pass the bill on roads and bridges, separated it from the bill for more social programs, and taken the limited victory. He could have honestly said he delivered on his promise to “build back better.” That’s not what he’s done. What he has done is pursue an ambitious, social-democrat agenda, one his own party rejected when primary voters chose Biden over Bernie Sanders.

Surely Biden knows he will never get his entire program through the Senate. But he’ll pass as much of it as he can. Doing so combines three central elements of the Democratic long-term agenda, pursued steadily since the mid-1930s:

(1) overturn federalism and replace it with a centralized state;

(2) use this administrative state to impose detailed regulations on the economy and society; and

(3) redistribute federal funds to favored groups (and tax disfavored ones) to retain political control.

Implementing those goals has slowly transformed America, at least since the mid-1960s.

Biden wants to take the next, large leap before his party loses power. Whether he, Nancy Pelosi, and the progressive caucus can actually make that leap — and land safely — is the real prize in this back-room bargaining. The fight is ultimately over how much they can centralize, regulate, and redistribute.

end

Default averted for now until next month after Senate reaches a debt ceiling deal

(zerohedge)

Default Averted For Now After Senate Reportedly Reaches Debt-Ceiling Deal

 
THURSDAY, OCT 07, 2021 – 07:35 AM

Following negotiations that stretched late into Wednesday evening, Democrats and Republicans have reportedly forged a compromise deal on a short-term increase in the the debt ceiling which will avoid default, but as Bloomberg notes, “threatens to exacerbate year-end clashes over trillions in government spending.”

In moving forward, Democrats appear to be on the verge of accepting a proposal from GOP leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) which would raise the debt limit by a specific amount – enough to move things into December, when Congress will have to vote again to avoid a default.

While the details aren’t totally clear, McConnell’s offer was to allow a vote on extending the debt limit at a fixed collar amount – which Goldman’s Alec Phillips expects a number on over the next day or so.

We’re making good progress,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in early Thursday morning comments from the Senate floor, adding “we hope to have agreement tomorrow morning,” adding that the Senate would come back into session at 10 a.m. Thursday.

That said, this is classic can-kicking which will have consequences down the road, as Democrats will likely attempt to move forward with their massive tax and spending package and separate infrastructure bill while at the same time funding the government to avoid yet another potential shutdown after December 3.

News of a possible debt-ceiling accord stoked the biggest positive turnaround in the equity market in more than seven months, as the S&P 500 Index closed up 0.4% after tumbling earlier. In the bond market, traders bid back up the prices of Treasuries set to mature in the window around a potential default. Investors then moved on to gauge which securities may now be most at risk of a missed or delayed payment under the new congressional timeframe. -Bloomberg

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the US would likely default after October 18 without congressional action. At present, the current debt limit is $28.4 trillion, while the Treasury reported that it had $343 billion in combined extraordinary measures and cash on hand.

As an approximation, during the period from Sep. 29 to Dec. 3, 2019, debt subject to limit (this includes marketable and non-marketable debt) increased by $356bn and the cash balance declined by $50bn, suggesting that the Treasury would use around $400bn in borrowing capacity by early December if cash flows are similar this year. Since the Treasury still had more than $300bn in room under the debt limit at the end of September, a debt limit increase to only $28.5-$28.6 trillion might be sufficient to accomplish the intent of the agreement, but the Treasury will be the final word on this and the amount will depend on expected cash flows this year. -Goldman Sachs

And while a fixed dollar amount (vs. a calendar-based solution) injects a bit of uncertainty as to when exactly the next deadline will hit, the debt deal alleviates concerns which were beginning to reverberate throughout the investment community. Earlier this week, McConnell sidestepped a question over whether any major banks or wall street titans had contacted him over the debt ceiling fight.

It was thought that the investment community would hammer Washington if lawmakers bumbled into a debt ceiling crisis. 

Worry started to permeate Washington that rating agencies could downgrade the creditworthiness of the U.S. before Oct. 18 – the deadline when Treasury says the U.S. will run out of cash. –Fox News

Senate Democrats have considered the debt deal a victory –  with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) exclaiming on Wednesday that “McConnell caved,” adding “And now we’re going to spend our time doing child care, health care, and fighting climate change.”

From here, the focus will undoubtedly return to negotiations over Biden’s fiscal agenda – and in particular, the stalemate within the Democratic party between Senate moderates Joe Manchin (WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (AZ), who have vowed to sink any reconciliation plan that exceeds $1.5 trillion, and House progressives, who will likewise tank the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure deal unless Manchin and Sinema bend the knee.

Assuming that drags into December, expect fireworks into the end of the year.

end

iv) Swamp commentaries/

 

King report/Courtesy of Chris Powell of GATA which includes the major swamp stories./ of the day

The King Report October 7, 2021 Issue 6607 Independent View of the News
  @Schuldensuehner: Totally crazy: UK gas price future fluctuated wildly on Wednesday — surging a staggering 39% before sliding up to 13% after Russia’s President Putin said the country is ready to help stabilize global energy markets.

 

Energy commodities declined sharply on Putin’s pledged intervention.

Biden to meet top U.S. banks, business leaders on debt limit http://reut.rs/3AgLyJb

@business: Sen. McConnell to offer Democrats an option to end the debt-limit impasse 13:51 ET
https://trib.al/6zgQwFh

McConnell Floats an Increase Trough November – BBG 13:53 ET

U.S. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said his party would allow Democrats to use normal procedures to pass ‘an emergency debt limit extension at a fixed dollar amount to cover current spending levels into December’ https://reut.rs/3uR0yfB

Another instance of DC insider trading occurred.  Someone in the know leaked info to a buddy.

The McConnell rally ended at 14:45 ET with an approximate 50-handle ESZ jump.  ESZs and stocks declined modestly into the final hour, and then went inert – until someone goosed ESZs before the close.

BBG: S&P 500 Whiplash Is Most Extreme Since 2020 Panic (This is what manipulation does!)
The index will have swung between gains and losses of at least 1% for five straight sessions. That’s the longest streak since the bear market in March 2020.

@bonchieredstate: McConnell is not caving. He’s painting Schumer into a corner and forcing reconciliation as the only viable process for a long-term debt limit hike. The short term offer only makes Schumer look worse if he rejects it while also refusing to use reconciliation.

@cspan: @LeaderMcConnell on Speaker Pelosi: “She’s headed to Europe. I can only presume she hopes the full faith and credit of the United States will get sorted out without her. That is the level of leadership and accountability the country is getting from the Washington Democrats…”
https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1445767284656459792

Fox’s @jason_donner: Sen. Manchin: -On reconciliation: “My number has been 1.5.(trillion). I’ve been very clear.” -On Debt Ceiling: “I implore them [McConnell & Schumer] engage, start working, work this out, there should not be a crisis” –On Filibuster carve out: “I’ve been very clear, nothing changing

U.K. Inflation Expectations at 13-Year High Lift Rate-Hike Bets
https://nz.news.yahoo.com/u-k-10-inflation-gauge-070359268.html

The ADP Employment Change for September is 568,000; 430k was expected.  Leisure and hospitality produced 226,000 jobs.  September NFP, due on Friday, is expected to be 500k.

Pfizer Lobbying Hits Decade High as DOZENS of High-Profile Political Appointees Become Big Pharma Reps.  Republicans and Democrats alike are now working for the Big Pharma lobby.
In October alone Pfizer tapped Sudafi Henry, Joe Biden’s former legislative affairs director from his days as Vice President… Justin McCarthy, who served under George W. Bush as a Special Assistant to the President for Legislative Affairs, and Ben Howard, who served as a Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy Director of Legislative Affairs under Donald Trump, both lobby for the pharmaceutical giant…
    David Schiappa, a longtime Republican staff member of the Senate holding the role of Secretary for Leader Mitch McConnell, is also lobbying for Pfizer… In 2019, the company retained 77 lobbyists before the total grew to a team of 102 lobbyists in 2020. So far in 2021, Pfizer has declared 92 lobbyists.
https://thenationalpulse.com/exclusive/pfizer-and-moderna-increase-lobbying-efforts/

@ABC: More Americans have died from COVID-19 this year than from the virus in all of 2020, according to newly updated data from Johns Hopkins University.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/covid-delta-surge/?id=80391228&cid=social_twitter_abcn#80432735

@SharylAttkisson: Only in George Orwell’s 1984 does this make sense to anyone: ‘The vaccines are so highly-effective, now that a majority are vaccinated, more people are sicker and hospitalized than ever before, including the vaccinated.’

Science Closes in on Covid’s Origins
Four studies—including two from WHO—provide powerful evidence favoring the lab-leak theory.
    Based on experience with SARS-1 in 2003 and MERS in 2012, we know that many people are infected by a host animal long before a coronavirus mutates to the point where it can jump from human to human… Based on SARS-1 and MERS, the natural zoonotic theory predicts 100 to 400 Covid infections would be found in those samples. The lab-leak hypothesis, of course, predicts zero. If the novel coronavirus were engineered by scientists pursuing gain-of-function research, there would be no instances of community infection until it escaped from the laboratory. The World Health Organization investigation analyzed those stored samples and found zero pre-pandemic infections. This is powerful evidence favoring the lab-leak theory…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-coronavirus-lab-leak-virology-origins-pandemic-11633462827

Biden Sows Confusion by Claiming He Spoke to President Xi About The “Taiwan Agreement”
    “I’ve spoken with Xi about Taiwan. We agree…we’ll abide by the Taiwan agreement,” he said. “We made it clear that I don’t think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement.”
    Reuters’ Vincent Lee quickly pointed out that Biden appeared to be referencing a conversation from more than a month ago (not a recent call, as he seemed to imply) while also pointing out that there is no “Taiwan Agreement”… It surmised that Biden appeared to be referring to the Taiwan Relations Act, which binds the US to establish diplomatic relations with Beijing, not Taipei… Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said Wednesday that it had sought “clarification” from the US about Biden’s comments, and was reassured that American policy toward Taiwan had not changed, and that the US commitment to them was “rock solid” – including the obligation to help maintain its military defense… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-sows-confusion-claiming-he-spoke-president-xi-about-taiwan-agreement

US-French alliance still frosty, as Macron waits for White House action https://trib.al/qsgL8xu

Electing, by hook or crook, a “Being There” president has consequences.

@charliespiering: The digital projection window of Biden’s White House set shows flowers in bloom in the Rose Garden.  The set was constructed across the street from the actual WH in the Executive Office Building.  https://twitter.com/charliespiering/status/1445799356670545921
    @JackPosobiec: Truman Show Presidency – They gave Joe Biden a playschool desk and a fake Oval Office in a fake White House
    Ex-DNI @RichardGrenell: Susan Rice was on the @netflix board how did she get this stage so wrong?
    @Shem_Infinite: Why can’t Joe Biden talk from the actual White House? This is so bizarre.

CNN’s @ryanstruyk: President Biden’s approval rating clocks in at 38% approve, 53% disapprove via new Quinnipiac poll just out.

@MZHemingway: Quinnipiac claimed Lindsey Graham was tied in his Senate race (he won by >10) and that Collins would lose by 12 (she won by 9). For them to give these APOCALYPTIC numbers for Biden means they must be, somehow, far, far worse.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker shows Q3 GDP of 1.3%, down from 2.1% on October 1.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%201.3%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20October,2.3%20percent%20on%20October%201.

Retail traders follow Nancy Pelosi’s husband’s stock moves to find winners
…Traders, who see his trades as hers.  “We’ve been tracking their performance and every single stock she has bought in the last two years has gone up significantly,”… https://yhoo.it/3BjyQe7

Today –McConnell has offered a short-term debt hike for a specific amount to cover “current spending levels.”  This limits what Dems can spend for now and gives McConnell a blueprint for another debt ceiling hike negotiation that could limit Biden’s Trillions.  Will Democrats allow McConnell to have veto power over their spending/reconciliation bills?  Not bloody likely!  PS – The campaign for the 2020 Midterm Elections begins in earnest when Congress returns from holiday recess.

If yesterday’s rally was due to relief that a debt ceiling deal has been struck, what happens if Dems reject McConnell’s gambit?  Afternoon trading, barring developments, could be lame as adult traders move to the sidelines ahead of the September Employment Report on Friday.  Do NOT play unless you must!!!

Yesterday, the dollar and bonds, which are much smarter than equities, retreated a tad on McConnell’s gambit.  In fact, the modest drops were more due to the surge in equities than McConnell’s gambit.  ESZs are +18.50; USZs are -.08; the dollar is -0.07 at 20:50 ET.  It feels like a pump & dump is brewing!

AG Merrick Garland’s Daughter Married to Co-Founder of Education Company Selling Critical Race Theory Resource Material to School Districts
        In 2018 Rebecca Garland married Xan Tanner.  Mr. Xan Tanner is the current co-founder of a controversial education service company called Panorama Education. Panorama Education is the “social learning” resource material provider to school districts and teachers that teach Critical Race Theory.  Yes, the Attorney General is instructing the FBI to investigate parents who might pose a financial threat to the business of his daughter’s husband.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2021/10/05/ag-merrick-garlands-daughter-married-to-co-founder-of-company-selling-critical-race-theory-resource-material-to-school-districts/

 

‘Totalitarian tyranny’: Parents groups slam AG Garland for turning FBI on their activism
Attorney general has personal connection to Panorama Education, a firm that data mines children without parental consent and has allegedly evaded federal law DOJ is responsible for enforcing.
    FCPS confirmed to Nomani that it classified Panorama Education, which counts Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg as an investor, as “school officials” to qualify for an exemption from the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA). “Panorama Education will profit from Garland’s outrageous silencing of parents who are challenging its data mining of K-12 students,” Nomani wrote Tuesday. “This is federal law [FERPA] that Garland would have to enforce and Big Tech is now circumventing.”…  https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/totalitarian-tyranny-parents-groups-slam-garland-turning-fbi-their

@Cernovich: Republicans who backed Garland: Blunt (MO), Burr (NC), Capito (WV), Cassidy (LA), Collins (ME), Cornyn (TX), Ernst (IA), Graham (SC), Grassley (IA), Inhofe (OK), Johnson (WI), Lankford (OK), McConnell (KY), Moran (KS), Murkowski (AK), Portman (OH), Romney (UT), Rounds (SD), Thune (SD), Tillis (NC) [ex-Johnson, establishment Republicans and Trump haters]

@KelleyAshbyPaul: On May 28, a Repub-hating woman called Rand’s DC Senate office threatening to “shoot you all” to our staff member. She was never charged. Yet if you dare express indignation at a school board meeting about CRT or forced masks, the Biden DOJ and FBI say you’re a criminal.

Psaki can’t say whether Biden considers protesting parents ‘domestic terrorists’ https://trib.al/CsbGT5I

Ohio House Bill 290: Plan would give every Ohio K-12 student a voucher to attend private school
https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2021/10/06/ohio-republicans-reveal-plan-give-every-k-12-kid-school-voucher/6006177001/

Team Obama’s totalitarianism is producing unintended consequences.  Garland’s assault on parents will facilitate the education voucher movement.  For decades, Blacks and Hispanics have overwhelmingly favored vouchers.  White liberals and politicians beholden to teacher unions oppose vouchers.

US government ordering Google to provide users’ search data: report
The US federal government is secretly ordering Google and other search engines to track and provide data on anyone who searches certain terms through “keyword warrants,” according to a new report…
https://nypost.com/2021/10/06/us-government-ordering-search-engines-to-provide-search-data/

Facebook ‘Whistleblower’ Has Ties to Group Behind Trump’s First Impeachment, Jen Psaki’s Former PR Firm
https://beckernews.com/facebook-whistleblower-has-ties-to-group-behind-trumps-first-impeachment-jen-psakis-former-pr-firm-42388/

Democrat-leaning pollster has GOP leading generic congressional ballot
Quinnipiac asked Americans which party they would prefer controlled the House
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrat-pollster-shows-gop-leading

Democrat Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib was caught on camera saying that she only wears a mask for political reasons.  https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-rashida-tlaib-caught-admitting-she-only-wears-mask-for-the-camera

end

 

 
 
 
as a little heads up I am a little burnt out so do not expect any commentaries on Friday through Tuesday.
H
 

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