JAN 12//GOLD CLOSED UP $8.65 TO $1827.65//SILVER ROSE 38 CENTS TO $23.15//BOTH METALS GOT A HUGE BOOST WITH A RISE IN THE CPI OF 7% Y/Y/GOLD STANDING FOR DECEMBER RISES TO 7.608 TONNES WITH ANOTHER HUGE QUEUE JUMP AS PHYSICAL GOLD HAS DISAPPEARED //ALSO SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX ROSE TO 13.620 MILLION OZ: BOTH OF THESE ARE HUGE FOR A JANUARY MONTH (GENERALLY VERY LOW GOLD/SILVER STANDING FOR METAL)//COVID COMMENTARIES//VACCINE MANDATES/IVERMECTIN COMMENTARY//VACCINE MANDATE//CHINA LOCKSDOWN 3 MAJOR CITIES: XI’AN, TIAJIN (CLOSE TO BEIJING) AND DALIAN//EUROPE’S FDA HAS COME OUT AND STATED THAT THEY WILL NOT ALLOW BOOSTER SHOTS//BIDEN’S APPROVAL LEVEL FALLS TO ONLY 33%//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD; UP $8.65 to $1827.65
SILVER: $23.15 UP 38 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD: 1827.05.. 

SILVER: $23.19

Bitcoin:  morning price: 43,050 up 142

Bitcoin: afternoon price: 43,721 up $813

Platinum price: closing up $7.80 to $982.90

Palladium price; closing down  $8.90  at $1915.55

END

end

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comex notices//JPMorgan  notices filed 122/863  

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 01/11/2022 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 01/11/2022
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:26:54
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2022 PLATINUM FUTURES NYMEX
SETTLEMENT: 973.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/11/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 01/13/2022

FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


190 H BMO CAPITAL 18
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 18
357 C WEDBUSH 1
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC 54
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 85
661 C JP MORGAN 500 223
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 39
730 C PTG DIVISION SG 46
732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 101
905 C ADM 8 3


TOTAL: 548 548
MONTH TO DATE: 2,731


NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN. CONTRACT: 863 NOTICE(S) FOR 86,300 OZ  (2.6892  TONNES)

total notices so far:  2384 contracts for 238400 oz (7.4152 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

185 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  925,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 2336  :  for 11,680,000  oz

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $8.65

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS): 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

CLOSING INVENTORY: 976.21 TONNES/

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 38 CENTS:/:

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: 

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY SLV/ TONIGHT: 530.612 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI  ROSE BY A VERY STRONG 1925 CONTRACTS TO 144,421  AND RESTS CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020…... WITH THE $0.33 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.33) AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS  AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 2384 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES .

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A  STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 10.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 500,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP        V)  VERY  STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  -29

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 8 days, total  contracts: :  4619 contracts or 23.095 million oz  OR 5.75 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (577 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 4619 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 23.095 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 8 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

RESULT: WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1925 WITH OUR 33 CENT GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF  430 CONTRACTS( 430 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY:/ AS WELL AS TODAY /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF 10.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 500,000 QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 13.620, MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2356 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 11.920 MILLION OZ//

WE HAD 185 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 925,000 OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A  HUMONGOUS SIZED 20,294 TO 546,516, AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -3303  CONTRACTS

.

THE HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $19.25//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALLED AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 21,925 CONTRACTS… 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN AT 3.5614 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 72,800 OZ QUEUE. JUMP//NEW STANDING: 7.608 TONNES      

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $19.25 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD  A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 21,925  OI CONTRACTS (68.195 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALLED A SMALL SIZED 1631 CONTRACTS:

FOR FEB 1631  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1631 

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 546,516.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 21,925, WITH 20,294 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1631 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 25,228 CONTRACTS OR 78.469TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1631) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (20,294): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 21,925 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 3.7262 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 72,800 OZ QUEUE. JUMP.//NEW STANDING 7.608 TONNES  3)ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,4)  GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 23,026 CONTRACTS OR 2,302,600 oz OR 71.62  TONNES (8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2878 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 66/55 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  71.62/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE 

JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           145.12 TONNES//INITIAL ISSUANCE// 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 125 CONTRACTS TO 144,442  AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 430 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 430  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  430 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 125 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 430 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2356 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 11.775 MILLION  OZ, 

OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.33 GAIN IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 29.99 PTS OR 0.84%      //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 663.11 PTS OR 2.79% /The Nikkei closed UP 543,18 PTS OR 1 .92%      //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .67%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3656    /Oil UP TO 81.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 83.85 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN     //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP  AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3656. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3717: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN AND OFF SHORE TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR

A)NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 20,294 CONTRACTS  AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR  GAIN OF $19.25 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP (1631 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY BAILING OUT

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1531 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  DEC  :  0  & FEB. 1531 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1531 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 21,925 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1631 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 20,294  CONTRACTS..

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN   (7.605),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $19.25)

AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 78.469 TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (7.605 TONNES)…

WE HAD – XXX CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 25,228 CONTRACTS OR 2,522,800 OZ OR 78.469 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 235,270 poor///

Confirmed volume yesterday: 240,356 contracts poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JAN ’22 COMEX GOLD 

JAN 12

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz nil oz
                                                                                                                            
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznilOZ            
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz      nil                                                
No of oz served (contracts) today863  notice(s)86300 OZ2.6892 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)61 contracts  6100 oz 0..1899 TONNES  
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month2384 notices 238,400 OZ7.4152 TONNES  
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

For today:

No dealer deposit 0

No dealer withdrawal 0

0 customer deposit

0 customer withdrawal

i

ADJUSTMENTS: 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 924 stand for JANUARY GAINING 381 contracts.  We had 346 notices filed on TUESDAY, so we GAINED A WHOPPING 727 contracts or an additional 72,700 oz will stand for

gold in this very non active delivery month of January

FEBRUARY LOST 6661 CONTRACTS TO 298,626

March added 117 contracts to stand at 2358..

We had 863 notice(s) filed today for 86,300  oz FOR THE JAN 2022 CONTRACT MONTH


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 139 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 863  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  122 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2384) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JAN: 924 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  863 x 100 oz per contract equals 244,500 OZ  OR 7.608 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of JAN. (numbers corrected from yesterday) 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:

No of notices filed so far (2384) x 100 oz+   (924)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (863} x 100 oz} which equals 244,500 oz standing OR 7.605 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of JAN. 

We GAINED 728 contracts or an additional  72,800 oz of gold will not stand for metal on this side of the pond.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  7.608 TONNES  (VERY STRONG FOR A JANUARY DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

206,468.649, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  6.42 TONNES

174,041.813 PLEDGED  MANFRA 5.41 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690

288,481,604, oz  JPM No 2  8.97 TONNES

698,821.330 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,244.444 oz International Delaware:  0..3808 tonne

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold:  1,653,017.372oz                                     51.42 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 33,636,248.801 OZ (1046.22 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,027,355.260 OZ (498.51 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,608,893.542 OZ  (547.71 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,955,876.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  496.29 tonnes

END

JANUARY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//JAN 12

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory660,123.239  oz DelawareCNTManfra                                                                                                                       
Deposits to the Dealer InventorynilOZ                   
Deposits to the Customer Inventory24,567.467  ozDelaware                                                                                   
No of oz served today (contracts)185 CONTRACT(S)925,000  OZ) 
No of oz to be served (notices)388 contracts (1,940,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)2336 contracts 11,680,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil       oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 1 deposit

i) into Delaware: 24,567.467 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 184.635 million oz/353.068 million =52.29% of comex 

ii) Comex withdrawals: 3

a)  out of Delaware:  1001.70 oz

b)  out of Manfra:  613m592.339 oz

total withdrawal 660,123.239 oz

we had 0 adjustments

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.331 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 353.068 MILLION OZ

TOTAL NO OF CONTRACTS SERVED UPON THIS MONTH: 1980 CONTRACTS FOR 45,095,000 OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DECEMBER

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY: 185 NOTICES OR 925,000 OZ

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN//2022 OI: 573 CONTRACTS LOSING 71 contracts on the day

We had 171 notices filed for TUESDAY so we GAINED 100 contracts or 500,000 additional oz will  stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January.

FOR FEB WE HAD A GAIN OF 28 CONTRACTS UP TO 725

FOR MARCH WE HAD A GAIN OF 738 CONTRACTS UP TO 114,378 CONTRACTS.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 185 for 925,000 oz

Comex volumes: 57,685 poor// est. volume today

Comex volume: confirmed YESTERDAY: 53,934 contracts (poor)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  2336 x 5,000 oz =. 11,680,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN (573) and the number of notices served upon today 185 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN./2021 contract month: 2336 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (573)  – number of notices served upon today (185) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month equates 13,620,000 oz. .

We GAINED 100 contracts or an additional 500,000 oz will  stand for delivery on this side of the pond.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

GLD

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.65//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $19.25/A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.08 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWLA OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.83 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.30//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.99 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $10.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.31 TONNES

Jan 4/WITH GOLD UP $14.00//A HUGE CHANGE OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.31 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $14.05 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES 

DEC 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES.

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.94 TONNES FROM THE GLD/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES

DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $12.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.57 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.05 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.57 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65 TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.37 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.20 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $7.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.20 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $33.05TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.4 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT: 977.20 TONNES

DEC15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.80 TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.60 TONNES.

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

DEC 10.WITH GOLD UP $7.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

DEC 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64.

DEC 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY; A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.17 TONNES//

CLOSING INVENTORY: 976.21 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SLV.

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//

JAN 11/WITH SILVER  UP 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ/.

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 7/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL PF 226,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ?/

JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.219 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC30/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.624 MILLILON OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.682 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ//

DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.883 MILLION OZ/

DEC 21/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.728 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.085 MILLION OZ

DEC 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.282 MILLION OZ

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.282 MILLION OZ//

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 538.282 MILLION OZ

DEC  15WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.48 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.612 MILLION OZ

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.092 MILLION OZ

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.561 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.092 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10.WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.653 MILLION OZ..

DEC 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.653 MILLION OZ/

DEC 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.693 MILLION OZ///

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.693 MILLION OZ..

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.110 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.693 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY:  530.612 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: The Real Reason Gold Hasn’t Gone Up And Why It Ultimately Will

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 12:06 PM

Authored by Peter Schiff via SchiffGold.com,

Inflation in the US is at historically high levels.

So, why hasn’t gold taken off?

We hear this question over and over again. In this video, Peter Schiff answers this question and explains why the markets will eventually wake up to their misperception.

That’s the key word – misperception.

Taper tantrums and fear of Fed rate hikes have distorted perception in the markets. People are selling gold when they should be buying gold on the dips.

And at the root of this misperception is the market’s focus on nominal interest rates instead of real interest rates.

The Federal Reserve now plans to raise interest rates three, possibly four, times in the next year. The conventional wisdom is that these rate hikes are bearish for the price of gold. This is why every time we got hotter than expected inflation news last year, the price of gold fell. Everybody assumed the central bank would speed up the pace of these rate hikes.

Gold has been rangebound around $1,800 for months. Peter pointed out that the fact gold hasn’t really gone down despite this universally held belief that monetary tightening is negative for gold is a positive sign.

But it’s key to understand that not only are these projected rate hikes not negative for gold – they are actually going to be a positive.

The Missing Puzzle Piece – Real Interest Rates

Why do investors assume rate hikes are bad for gold?

Generally speaking, rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Gold does not generate a yield. If interest rates rise and you’re holding gold, you’re forgoing the interest income you could earn on dollars if you put them in a bank account or invest them in bonds. That’s why rising interest rates tend to create headwinds for gold. And it’s why we’ve seen gold sell off on high inflation news. The markets expect the Fed to fight inflation with rate hikes, thus raising the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Rates have been at zero for a long time. That means there has been no opportunity cost to own gold. The Fed’s artificially low interest rates have been supportive of gold. The fear (and misperception) is if the Fed removes those supports by raising rates, gold will crash.

Peter says that’s not going to happen.

The key is understanding the difference between nominal interest rates and real interest rates.

When you’re talking about an opportunity cost, the interest rate has to be real. And by real, I mean above the rate of inflation.”

Even based on the government’s flawed CPI, inflation rose by about 7% in 2021.

Even if the Fed follows through with all of the rate hikes that it’s projecting, it’s talking about slowly raising interest rates in one-quarter point increments until, at the end of this year, they’re at 1%. And they’ll continue the process in 2023 until at the end of 2023, we’re at 2%. And supposedly, the 2% rate of interest represents a huge headwind for gold because it’s an opportunity cost, and a lot of people that are in gold are not going to want to be in gold when they can get a 2% yield on their cash.”

Peter said the whole idea is absurd.

If you accept a 7% inflation, even though the actual rate of inflation is probably 15% if the government measured it accurately, that means the dollar is losing 7% of its purchasing power every year. In exchange for that, you’re going to be able to earn 2% in interest to offset the 7% you’re losing to inflation. You are still -5%.

Negative 5% is not an opportunity cost. Nobody wants the opportunity to lose 5%. So, if you’re giving up a 5% loss, you’ve given up nothing.”

In order for there to be an opportunity cost, you have to have an interest rate above the rate of inflation. If the Fed raised rates to 10%, that might be a problem for gold. With an inflation rate of 7%, you would be giving up 3% in real interest that you could otherwise earn.

But if they’re just talking about raising rates to 2%, that’s nothing! I’m going to stay in gold to avoid a 5% loss. The opportunity cost is not owning gold. It’s owning US dollars and losing 5%. What the Fed is doing is too little too late to derail the gold bull market.”

In fact, Peter said he thinks the Fed will initiate the next leg up for gold when the markets wake up to this reality.

The Inflation Fight the Fed Can’t Win

Right now, everybody is fixated on the Fed’s fight against inflation. They assume that the central bank is going to win. So, why own gold?

At some point, the markets will realize that these incremental, tiny rate hikes are not nearly enough to stop inflation. The Fed is way behind the curve, and inflation is rising much faster than the Fed is talking about hiking. In fact, the Fed isn’t really talking about tight monetary policy at all. The Fed is talking about slightly less loose monetary policy. Less loose isn’t tight.

What the Fed is talking about doing is reducing the amount of gasoline that is pouring on the inflation fire. That still means the fire is going to get bigger. Even if it gets bigger more slowly, it’s still going to get bigger.”

But Peter said he thinks it may get bigger even faster.

When the markets realize these rate hikes aren’t doing any good, and that inflation is getting worse, that’s another reason to buy gold.”

And while the rate hikes won’t be big enough to tame inflation, they may well be big enough to prick the bubble economy.

When you develop an addiction to a certain amount of monetary heroin, even if you get monetary heroin, but you get a smaller dose, it’s not enough for your habit. And I think that’s going to happen in the markets.”

Ultimately, it will bleed into the economy and drive it into recession. That means we’ll not only have inflation but stagflation.

In the face of that, the Fed is ultimately going to do an about-face. It’s going to start cutting interest rates again and restarting the QE program even though the inflation problem has gotten worse.”

When that happens, gold is going to go ballistic.

But between now and then, take advantage of the misperception in the market that these rate hikes, if they actually come, are bearish for gold. That’s keeping a temporary lid on the price of gold. Eventually, reality is going to blow that lid off. But in the meantime, buy yourself some gold. In fact, maybe even better, buy some silver as well.”

This sale is not going to go on forever.

When you get a gift horse, don’t look it in the mouth. Just take advantage of it.”

end

LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,James  RICKARDS

END

Important gold commentaries courtesy of GATA/Chris Powell

Craig Hemke discusses his forecast for gold/silver for 2022
(CraigHemke/GATA)

Craig Hemke’s gold and silver forecast for 2022

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-01-11 21:04 Section: Daily Dispatches

9p ET Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, writing tonight at Sprott Money, gives his gold and silver forecast for the new year and details the reasons for it. Monetary metals investors won’t be too disappointed. The report is headlined “Reality Bites: A Forecast for Precious Metals in 2022” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Reality-Bites-A-Forecast-for-Precious-Metals-in-2022-Craig-Hemke-January-11-2022

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Perfectly correct: the dollar’s once solid link to bond yields is breaking down.  Also the dollar vs gold

(BloombergNews/GATA)

Dollar’s once-solid link to bond yields is breaking down

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-01-11 15:37 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Vassilis Karamanis and Payne Lubbers
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, January 11, 2022 

The dollar is starting to decouple from the Treasury yields that it tracked so closely last year, adding to signs that the bulk of the currency’s windfall from higher rates has already passed. 

Two-year U.S. yields surpassed 0.94% on Tuesday, hitting levels last seen before the pandemic, as money markets moved toward pricing in four rate increases from the Federal Reserve this year. Yet the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has failed to budge much above a six-week low seen at the end of 2021.

The contrast affirms investor views that while the greenback has scope to climb this year, it has already benefited substantially from traders who started front-running a hawkish Fed in the last few months of 2021, taking the Bloomberg dollar index to an annual gain of close to 5%, its biggest since 2015. Once the U.S. central bank raises borrowing costs and rolls bonds off its balance sheet, the dollar’s gains are widely expected to moderate into the second half of 2022.

Part of the reason for the subdued move in the dollar is that traders are front-loading hikes for other central banks, which diminishes the dollar’s relative advantage on the rates side, according to Valentin Marinov, head of G-10 FX strategy at Credit Agricole. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11/dollar-s-once-solid-link-to-higher-bond-yields-is-breaking-down

END

OTHER GOLD STORIES

END

OTHER COMMODITIES/BEEF

Beef Prices Jump As Omicron Spread Sickens Meat Plant Workers

TUESDAY, JAN 11, 2022 – 08:25 PM

The COVID-19 Omicron variant’s spread among U.S. meatpacker workers is threatening beef output and raising prices, according to Bloomberg

New data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows beef output last week dropped 5.3% YoY, and wholesale prices jumped 1.3% on Monday, the most significant increase since August. 

Rising meat prices have been the Biden administration’s core focus as food inflation is a big concern for working poor Americans. Biden’s polling data is near an all-time low as inflation wipes out wage gains. 

The administration has blamed the meat industry for price-gouging. Still, it appears they have very little knowledge or are unable to or unwilling to admit problems actually driving inflation in the industry, which is related to labor issues. 

“The beef market is finding some strength because you’re having trouble with absentee workers,” Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa, told Bloomberg by phone. 

Recently absenteeism at processing, packaging, and distribution of meat plants has recorded around 8%, up from 4-5%, said Mark Lauritsen, vice president of meatpacking at the United Food and Commercial Workers Union, representing thousands of plants employees. 

 “Meat plants don’t tend to be as bad as the general population,” Lauritsen said, adding that many meat workers are fully vaccinated and kept absenteeism relatively low. 

However, the spread of the highly contagious omicron virus variant that can infect fully vaccinated people has begun to sicken workers from meatpacking plants to supermarkets. It is producing supply problems in the new year. 

Cargill Inc., a top U.S. meatpacker, said it was experiencing a rise in infections at its plants, though all the plants are still operating. 

Other food makers, such as Conagra Brands Inc. and Campbell Soup Co., are seeing upticks in absenteeism among workers due to COVID. 

Meanwhile, Americans begin to panic as many have taken to social media to voice their concerns about food shortages at supermarkets

This all means that food inflation will remain elevated through 2022 despite Biden’s attempt to squash it ahead of midterms.

END

PORK

Is Europe heading for another pig ebola outbreak which will cause pork prices to skyrocket 

(zerohedge)

Is A Pig Ebola Outbreak Imminent In Europe?

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 04:15 AM

The highly transmissible and fatal disease for pigs, known as African swine fever (ASF), continues to spread throughout Europe. Leading some to believe the next major outbreak could be nearing and may result in soaring pork prices. 

Bloomberg reports the latest case has been reported in a wild boar in Italy. It’s the first reported case in the country since the virus was first detected in Western Europe in 2018.

ASF doesn’t present a risk to humans but is devastating for pig herds. Italy is the seventh-largest pork producer in the European Union, with about 9 million pigs. 

Italy’s national reference centre confirmed the ASF case was detected in the northern Italian region Piedmont. The department said crisis units were being set up to control the spread. 

“We are acting with the utmost timeliness, the immediate and coordinated implementation of control measures in wild suids (pigs) is essential in an attempt to confine and eradicate the disease as much as possible,” said Piedmont’s health deputy, Luigi Icardi.

ASF appears to be spreading closer and closer to Spain and France, two of the European Union’s top pork suppliers. Germany has been battling ASF for more than a year as China has already placed an import ban from there

A possible outbreak in Europe comes as the continent faces a supply glut of pork that has sent prices to a multi-year low. 

“ASF is not only a German problem or a Polish problem or an Italian problem, it’s a European problem,” said Miguel Angel Higuera Pascual, director of Spanish pig-farmers association Anprogapor.

The disease is moving. It’s a nightmare to think about how we can control the movement of wild animals,” Pascual said. 

What’s also concerning is the ASF strain found in the wild bore in Italy matches the one that spread around Europe in 2007. 

Justin Sherrard, a global animal protein strategist at Rabobank International, said the latest outbreak is a “further warning shot across the bow.” It could result in the culling of herds that would send pork prices soaring, adding to food inflation woes

end

NICKEL

And now nickel is rising in price>>>

(zerohedge)

Green Revolution Sends Nickel Prices To Seven-Year High

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Prices of rare earth metals used for battery making have soared in recent days as the parabolic growth in the electrification of vehicles forces automakers to lock in supplies. 

Nickle, one of the key components in lithium-ion batteries, hit a seven-year high on Tuesday, rising as much as 3.4% to $21,500 a ton on the news that Tesla signed a nickel supply deal with Talon Metals Corp’s Tamarack mine project in Minnesota. 

Notice how nickel trading on the London Metal Exchange marches higher as stockpiles continue to slump on increasing demand due to accelerated electric car production. 

On Monday, lithium prices hit a new record high. Lithium carbonate trading in China was about 300,000 yuan (just over $47k per ton), an increase of about six times from January 2021. Soaring prices come as electric-car makers, such as Tesla, report exponential growth in the US, Europe, and China. 

Lithium, nickel, and cobalt are the essential elements in battery technology powering electric vehicles that steadily replace combustion engines. 

Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America, told Bloomberg, “we have so many stories all pointing in the same direction,” indicating that “people do realize that there is potentially a tightness in supply going on, and that is taking nickel prices ultimately higher.”

Even though prices for rare earth metals are increasing, the overall battery pack costs remain relatively inexpensive compared with a decade or so ago – however, 2022 will be the first year in years that battery pack prices will slightly increase. 

A very different type of commodity supercycle could be playing out, driven by a green revolution, not China’s industrial economy.

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 6.3656

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3717

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 663.11 PTS OR 2.79%

2. Nikkei closed UP 543,18 PTS OR 1.92%

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN   

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  96/61/Euro RISES TO 1.1361-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.129/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 115.43/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 81.52 and Brent: 83.85-

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP//  OFF- SHORE  UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.0.043%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 1.29% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 0.63%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.33: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.55

3k Gold at $1818.85 silver at: 22.82   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; Russian rouble UP 6/100 in roubles/dollar AT 74.92

3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 115.43 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9224– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0484 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.746 UP 1 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.076 UP 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.81

 

Futures Slightly Green Ahead Of Today’s “Brutal” CPI Print

WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 08:00 AM

U.S. index futures were little changed, if slightly in the green on Wednesday as investors settled into a wait-and-see mode ahead of today’s “brutal” CPI report which is expected to show the highest CPI print in nearly 40 years, a time when the fed funds rate was 11% compared to 0% now…

… and gauge the pace of Federal Reserve tightening. Consensus expects December CPI to show inflation climbing to 7.0%, a result which could see front- end fully price in a March rate hike (currently priced at 85%). Helping the overnight mood in Asia, was a moderation in China’s inflation pressures, with CPI dipping to 10.3% y/y in December, giving the central bank scope to cut interest rates to cushion the economy’s downturn just as most major nations look to tighten policy. At 730am ET, S&P futures were up 0.2% of 7.50, and Nasdaq futures rose 22 points or 0.14%, recovering toward Asia’s best levels; Dow futures were up about 0.1%. The dollar was slightly lower, extending on its recent sharp drop, while Treasury yields were steady.

“All we know is that the Fed has waited too long before taking action,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. “If today’s inflation print is higher than expected, recent gains in equities will melt like snow in the sun,” she wrote, even though investors seemed to put aside fears that tighter policy will stifle the economic rebound and market rally after soothing words from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. His testimony Tuesday helped arrest a five-day slide in the S&P 500, just as we predicted it would.https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1480907130441981954&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Ffutures-swing-ahead-todays-brutal-cpi-print&partner=tweetdeck&sessionId=6d1c6c4828f1eebe944382445d49f0eba7181602&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=86e9194f%3A1641882287124&width=550px

As Deutsche writes, the highlight of the last 24 hours was Chair Powell’s renomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. The overall communicated stance of policy wasn’t much changed with the hawkish pivot still on. Nevertheless, there were a few incremental takeaways. Powell did nothing to push back on liftoff being on the table in March, in line with our US econ team’s call and the increasing probability implied by the market, which is currently 85%. He made it clear that QE (yes it’s still happening) would finish in March, despite speculations it may come to an abrupt halt beforehand. In line with growing consensus, he painted a picture that made the start of QT likely in 2022. Finally, on the overall stance of policy, he emphasized the Fed needs to pull back from extreme levels of accommodation, but didn’t need to rush to get to a neutral stance of policy.

“It was a masterful performance really, leaving the bowls neither too full nor too shallow, but just right from the financial market’s perspective,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific, in an email. “The music can still play in equity markets in 2022, it’s just that we’ve likely seen the best of the technology gains.”

With three and possibly four Fed rate increases now priced in, strategists are turning more sanguine about inflation and focusing on positives such as the start of the earnings season. Markets have been buffeted by volatility at the start of the year on the prospect of faster interest-rate increases to subdue price pressures.

“Hawkish Fed repricing is likely largely done for now,” and “resilient earnings should help equities rebound,” Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.

Looking at the CPI print, DB’s Jim Reid notes that repeated upside surprises in the inflation data have sent the year-on-year numbers up to multi-decade highs, putting significant pressure on the Fed. Indeed if you look at the monthly headline CPI reading, 7 of the last 9 releases have come in above the consensus estimate on Bloomberg. In terms of what to expect this time around, economists think that year-on-year CPI will rise to +7.0%, which will be the highest annual CPI number since 1982. And if that figure is realized, it would also mean that the real Fed Funds rate in December was around -7%, which for reference is lower than at any point in the 1970s, when the lowest the fed funds rate got in real terms was around -5%.

In the premarket, Dish Network Corp. rose more than 7% on a New York Post report of merger talks with DirecTV. PayPal shares dropped 1.9% in premarket trading after Jefferies cut its recommendation for the digital payments provider to hold from buy. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:

  • U.S.-listed Chinese stocks rally in premarket trading, as Asian listings rebound amid bargain hunting and a reassuring tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Alibaba (BABA US) +2.4%, JD.com (JD US) +1.5%, Pinduoduo (PDD US) +3.3%
  • Biogen (BIIB US) drops 9.1% in premarket trading after the U.S. government limited Medicare coverage of the company’s Aduhelm Alzheimer’s disease treatment and similar drugs to patients enrolled in clinical trials. The highly unusual move will curb access to the controversial treatment approved last year
  • Wells Fargo (WFC US) advanced in premarket trading as Piper Sandler upgraded its rating to overweight from neutral; cuts Premier Financial to neutral from overweight
  • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) shares jump as much as 4.9% in U.S. premarket trading, boosted by disclosures of insider purchases of the retailer’s stock made on Jan. 7
  • Rocket Lab USA (RKLB US) started at overweight, with $17 target by Morgan Stanley, which says the company offers high-quality exposure to the space race. Stock gains 4.1% in premarket trading
  • Cogent Communications (CCOI US) faces a “challenging setup” on weak growth and a high multiple, Wells Fargo writes in note as downgrades to underweight from equal-weight

European equities climbed back toward opening highs after a choppy first hour of cash trading. The Euro Stoxx 50 added 0.7%, FTSE 100 outperforms at the margin. Miners, oil & gas and tech are the strongest performing sectors.  In Europe, mining and technology companies led the Stoxx 600 Index up 0.5%. Philips slumped 14%, the most in two decades, after the Dutch producer of medical equipment reported lower preliminary revenue than expected. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Rexel jumps to an eight-year high after the French maker of electrical products said 2021 organic growth will be higher than forecast with Citi noting positive demand comments from firm.
  • VAT shares post their steepest gains in more than a month after the Swiss supplier of products for the semiconductor industry reported 4Q order intake that was well above expectations.
  • DFS Furniture shares gain as much as 6.4%, among the top advancers in the FTSE All-Share Index, after the U.K. retailer kept its FY pretax profit forecast unchanged.
  • Just Eat Takeaway stock rises after initially falling following an update. Citi analysts say the online food delivery firm’s 4Q results are broadly in line with an expected deceleration.
  • TeamViewer shares rise as much as 15% in Frankfurt after the company reported 4Q and FY billings that beat market expectations with RBC calling the results “reassuring.”
  • Sainsbury shares rise as much as 3.9% after the U.K. grocer boosted its outlook for the year. Profit delivery is strong, according to Jefferies.
  • BHP Group and European mining peers are among the biggest gainers Wednesday with UBS saying in a sector note that shares are cheap — but valuations are not compelling.
  • Sweco shares fall as much as 6.8% after Danske Bank downgrades to hold from buy, noting “stalling execution” despite solid market demand for the engineering consultancy’s services.
  • Taylor Wimpey shares drop as much as 2.2% after a holder sold about 86m shares in the company at 163.75p apiece, representing a 3.7% discount to Tuesday’s close.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed to their highest level in almost seven weeks as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks spurred expectations that anticipated rate hikes won’t derail the global economic recovery.  The MSCI Pacific Index added as much as 1.6% to its highest since Nov. 26, bolstered by gains in the consumer-discretionary and information-technology sectors. Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings were among the biggest contributors to the measure’s rise. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and Japan led gains for the region.  Powell pledged to do what’s necessary to contain an inflation surge and prolong the economic expansion at his confirmation hearing for a second term as U.S. central bank chief. Futures on the S&P 500 advanced in Asia trading after halting a five-day slide. A gauge of Chinese technology shares rallied after the Nasdaq 100 outperformed major benchmarks.  “The market view is that containing inflation with early rate hikes will turn out to be good for the economy — that we’ll be able to push back on inflation while keeping the economy strong,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management in Tokyo. “Before, the market had been reacting simply to the words ‘monetary tightening’.”  Asia’s equity benchmark is attempting a rebound following last year’s 3.4% slump, when the gauge was hit by concerns over U.S. tightening, Covid-19 and a selloff in Chinese tech shares. Solid gains during Wednesday’s session will likely help spread a sense of relief, according to Fujiwara.  “We think there’s more attractiveness here in Asia and EMs overall. And valuations are much more compelling given overall EM/Asia markets have underperformed compared to U.S. and Europe,” Ken Wong, Asian equity fund specialist at Eastspring Investments, told Bloomberg Television. “In 2022, there will be opportunities to be selective.”

Japanese equities posted their first gain in four sessions, following a similar rebound in U.S. peers after soothing comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Electronics makers and telecoms were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which closed 1.6% higher. Tokyo Electron and SoftBank Group were the largest contributors to a 1.9% rise in the Nikkei 225. Powell pledged to do what’s necessary to contain an inflation surge and prolong the expansion, while steering clear of fresh details on the path of U.S. monetary policy. The S&P 500 rose for the first time in six sessions. “The market view is that containing inflation with early rate hikes will turn out to be good for the economy – that we’ll be able to push back on inflation while keeping the economy strong,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management in Tokyo. “Before, the market had been reacting simply to the words ‘monetary tightening’.”

Indian stocks rose along with Asian peers after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reassured investors that the U.S. central bank will tackle inflation to extend the economic expansion.  The S&P BSE Sensex climbed for a fourth day, up 0.9% to 61,150.04 in Mumbai. The benchmark is 1% away from surpassing its record high touched in October. The NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by a similar magnitude.  Reliance Industries Ltd. rose 2.7% and was among the biggest boosts to the key indexes. Of the 30 shares on the Sensex, 24 gained. All but two of the 19 sector indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. rose, led by a gauge of telecom companies.  IT major Wipro Ltd. reported net income for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. and Infosys Ltd. are also scheduled to announce Oct.-Dec. earnings in the day

Australian stocks also rebounded as mining shares hit 5-month highs.  The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% to 7,438.90, with miners and health-care contributing the most to the benchmark’s gain. The materials subgauge led the rebound, hitting the highest since Aug. 17.  Afterpay surged after the company said that Block, formerly known as Square, has now received approval from the Bank of Spain in respect of the acquisition by Lanai AU 2 Pty Ltd. Domino’s Pizza Enterprises dropped to its lowest since May.  Official data Wednesday showed job vacancies climbed to a record in Australia, up 18.5% to almost 400,000 in the three months through November. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to 12,804.48

In rates,Treasuries were marginally cheaper across the curve, with the front-end underperforming ahead of December CPI release at 8:30am ET. Treasury 2-year yields higher by 1.8bp vs. Tuesday close while rest of the curve is less than 1bp cheaper on the day; 10-year yields around 1.74% with both bunds and gilts outperforming by over 2bp in the sector. Cash USTs bear flatten, cheapening roughly 2bps across the short end.  Session highlight also includes 10-year note auction, a $36b reopening: US auctions resume with a $36BN 10-year reopening at 1pm, followed by $22b 30-year reopening Thursday. The WI 10-year at around 1.745%, above auction stops since January 2020 and ~23bp cheaper than December stop-out which tailed 0.4bp. Elsewhere, bunds and gilts drift higher, with the 10y point outperforming. Bund futures regain 170. Peripheral spreads tighten slightly.

In FX, most G-10 currencies were confined to narrow ranges after the dollar’s drop yesterday and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index hovered while the Treasury curve bear-flattened as yields rose by up to 2bps, while commodity currencies outperform but trade off best levels with G-10 FX generally trading narrow ranges.

Demand for long gamma exposure into the next Federal Reserve meeting remains subdued even as realized volatility stays relatively high. The Norwegian krone was the best G-10 performer, followed by the Canadian dollar, as oil steadied above $81 barrel after posting the biggest one-day surge this year as investors embraced risk assets, commodities climbed and industry estimates pointed to another drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles. The euro moved in a tight $1.1355-1.1378 range and Bund yields inched lower, led by the belly of the curve. The pound treaded water as investors monitored London hospital admissions for any signs of an easing in pandemic pressures and questioned how much further the currency can rise when rate hikes are already priced in.Australian dollar edged up amid iron ore hitting a three-month high as heavy rains disrupted southeastern Brazil’s iron ore industry. Japanese government bonds rallied across maturities after a smooth five-year note auction, driving down benchmark 10-year yields from a 10-month high and the yen steadied. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he expects the country’s underlying inflation to pick up gradually over the long-term after moderate near-term gains led by energy prices.

In commodities, crude futures fade a modest push higher. WTI stalls after a test of $82, Brent trades near $84. Spot gold drifts slightly lower near $1,817/oz. Base metals are in the green with LME nickel up 4%. Bitcoin jumped back over $43K while ether was above $3,300.

Looking at the day ahead now, and the aforementioned US CPI release for December will be the highlight. Other data releases include Euro Area industrial production for November and the US monthly budget statement for December. From central banks, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book, and speakers include BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe and the Fed’s Kashkari.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,710.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 485.30
  • MXAP up 1.6% to 196.29
  • MXAPJ up 1.6% to 641.50
  • Nikkei up 1.9% to 28,765.66
  • Topix up 1.6% to 2,019.36
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.8% to 24,402.17
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,597.43
  • Sensex up 1.0% to 61,200.72
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,438.90
  • Kospi up 1.5% to 2,972.48
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.04%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1370
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $84.17/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,815.68
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.59

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau says the European Central Bank will do what is necessary to get inflation around 2% in the medium term
  • Natural gas prices are likely to remain high for the next two years, with very few options to boost supplies quickly, according to the chief executive of Britain’s biggest energy supplier
  • China’s inflation pressures moderated to 10.3% y/y in December, giving the central bank scope to cut interest rates to cushion the economy’s downturn just as most major nations look to tighten policy

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac bourses traded positively as stocks took their cue from the energy and tech-led gains in the US where sentiment was underpinned as yields eased and focus centred on Fed Chair Powell’s confirmation hearing where he noted that the Fed is prepared to act to control inflation if required but refrained from ramping up the hawkish rhetoric. ASX 200 (+0.7%) was led higher by strength in commodity-related sectors after gold made headway above the USD 1800/oz level and WTI crude notched its biggest gain in a month, while the tech sector was also inspired following the growth and duration bias stateside. Nikkei 225 (+1.9%) was underpinned amid the broad constructive mood and recent JPY weakening with Softbank among the top performers after it was reported to have repurchased around JPY 42.9bln of shares during December. Hang Seng (+2.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) also benefitted from the risk momentum with the former spearheaded by tech and energy shares including CNOOC which saw an initial double-digit percentage jump due to the rally in oil prices and after it raised its production guidance for 2022. However, the gains in the mainland were modest in comparison as Chinese property developers face key bond payments this week and with participants digesting softer than expected Chinese inflation data. Finally, 10yr JGBs clawed back yesterday’s losses following a rebound in USTs and despite the heightened risk appetite, while prices briefly stalled after the 5yr JGB auction showed weaker results across all metrics although this was only momentarily with further upside on a break above the 151.00 level.

Top Asian News

  • Asia Stocks Jump to Near 7-Week High After Powell’s Fed Remarks
  • Primavera, ABCI Are Said to Weigh Joining Hong Kong SPAC Race
  • Just Two Listings Priced in Slow Hong Kong IPO Start: ECM Watch
  • China’s Credit Stabilizes as PBOC Calls For More Home Loans

Overall a positive but choppy morning for European cash equities thus far (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%; Stoxx 600 +0.6%), with the regional mood underpinned by the upside seen on Wall Street and then across APAC markets. The gains were attributed to Powell refraining from sounding more hawkish, while noise has also been growing regarding the possibility for China to further ease monetary policy amid domestic growth concerns. US equity futures saw some mild selling shortly after the European cash open despite a lack of fundamental catalysts, and with action contained to the equity space – potentially as players take some chips off the table ahead of US CPI and following this week’s gains. Futures are back in modest positive territory at the time of writing, with the NQ (+0.2%) back to narrowly leading and the RTY (-0.1%) the slight laggard. Back to Europe, the region also saw some modest losses in lockstep with state-side futures but mostly remained in positive territory with relatively broad-based gains. The SMI (-0.2%) lags amid the pro-cyclical/anti-defensive nature of the European sector composition, with Healthcare and Food & Beverages at the bottom of the pile – thus exerting some pressure on heavyweights Roche (-1.5%) and Nestle (-0.6%). The sectors table sees Basic Resources, Oil & Gas and Tech towards the top – the former two amid price action in their respective complexes, and the latter tracking the sectoral gains on Wall Street and APAC. Taking a look at some individual movers, Just Eat Takeaway (+2%) and Sainsbury’s (+2%) gain on the LSE following trading updates, with the latter upping its guidance in the pre-market. The other end of the spectrum sees Philips (-14%) plumbing the depths after missing forecasts and reporting higher-than-expected costs. In terms of analyst commentary, Goldman Sachs has conformed to the view that European stocks will outperform this year as the US stocks’ outlook gets dimmer against the backdrop of a hawkish Fed; “The unusually high concentration of stocks within the S&P leaves it more vulnerable to pressures coming from antitrust regulation or higher bond yields”, the analysts said

Top European News

  • Gas Prices to Stay High for Next Two Years, Centrica CEO Says
  • Germany Tells Banks to Rebuild Capital Buffers as Lending Booms
  • Goldman’s Stehn Sees ECB Remaining Patient on Rate Hikes
  • WeTransfer to Kick Off Europe Listing Window With Amsterdam IPO

In FX, the Greenback is hovering off deeper post-NFP lows in advance of CPI data that is tipped to show another acceleration in headline terms, albeit due to base effects on a y/y basis, and could rekindle hawkish Fed policy vibes that were doused somewhat by chair Powell on Tuesday. To recap, at his renomination hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee he was noncommittal on the timing for tightening and also pushed back on the notion that running down the balance sheet is likely to start soon after, if not immediately following lift-off and the end of tapering. Looking at the Dollar index as a proxy, a partial recovery in early European trade fell a fraction short of 95.700 and 95.500 is holding on the downside as Treasury yields meander between new cycle peaks and overnight retracement troughs awaiting the second leg of this week’s auction schedule in the form of Usd 36 bn 10 year notes alongside rhetoric from former Fed dove Kashkari.

  • CAD – Ongoing strength in crude prices is helping to keep the Loonie aloft, and Usd/Cad is now testing support and underlying bids around 1.2550 as a result. However, the 55 DMA comes in just below the half round number and could stall the fall as WTI encounters some resistance circa Usd 82/brl.
  • EUR/AUD/NZD/CHF/JPY/GBP – All narrowly mixed, marginally softer or off peaks against their US counterpart to be precise, with the Euro easing off after breaching 1.1350 and the 55 DMA on the way to peaking at 1.1378, the Aussie back under the 10 DMA having reached 0.7223 irrespective of softer than expected Chinese inflation metrics and the Kiwi fading from just a few pips shy of 0.6800 ahead of NZ building consents. Meanwhile, the Franc is maintaining 0.9250+ status, the Yen is staying afloat of the 115.50 mark after the BoJ upgraded its outlook for all 9 Japanese regions and Sterling retains a firm grip of the 1.3600 handle even though PM Johnson’s position is looking increasingly precarious as he heads for Question Time at the Commons. Note also, from a technical perspective there are several hurdles for Cable to overcome if its scales 1.3650, as Fibs sit at 1.3675 and 1.3706, while the 200 DMA resides at 1.3737.
  • SCANDI/EM – The Nok has extended gains through 10.0000 vs the Eur in wake of firmer than forecast Norwegian mainland GDP and much less contraction in the overall economy compared to the previous quarter, while the Sek has pared some losses from recent lows with encouragement from news that Sweden plans to offer compensation to households facing higher energy bills to the tune of Sek 6 bn. Elsewhere, the Rub is lagging amidst ongoing angst between Russia and the West and the Try has not really taken on board latest protestations from Turkish PM Erdogan about inflation not matching fundamentals and his promise to lower prices soon. Conversely, the softer Usd in general is propping up the Cnh and Cny following the aforementioned downturn in Chinese PPI and CPI, while the Zar is continuing its bull run regardless of Gold waning beyond Usd 1820/oz, the Czk has more hawkish remarks from CNB’s Mora to lean on and the Brl could also benefit from BCB Governor Campos Neto repeating that further is appropriate.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures initially gained following a period of consolidation in APAC hours, although recently the benchmarks have drifted off best levels. Prices are underpinned by the softer Buck heading into the US CPI metrics, with the former finding resistance at USD 82/bbl (vs low 81.17/bbl) and the latter extending above USD 84/bbl (vs low 83.52/bbl). News flow for the complex on the lighter side in the European morning. Eyes remain on the US CPI metrics, whilst China’s zero-COVID policy remains as a headwind to global demand, with China halting more flights and China’s Tianjin locking down three districts due to the COVID outbreak, whilst the Dalian port also reported cases. From a data perspective, the contracts were little-swayed by the smaller-than-expected draw in Private Inventories, whilst the internals also saw a much larger-than-expected in gasoline stocks (+10.9mln vs exp. +2.4mln) but US NatGas futures remain firmer by some 4% at the time of writing. The EIA STEO yesterday meanwhile upped their 2022 oil prices forecast by almost USD 5/bbl vs last month but sees those levels falling throughout the year. In terms of geopolitics, France has poured some cold water on the recent optimism surrounding the Iranian nuclear deal, suggesting the sides are still some ways apart despite the reported progress. The Russian/Ukrainian front hasn’t seen any further developments thus far. Turning to metals, spot gold has been moving in lockstep with the Dollar and has waned off yesterday’s USD 1,822/oz best, with the downside seeing the 50 DMA (1,806), 21 DMA (1,803) and 200 DMA (1,801) ahead of the psychological USD 1,800/oz. Elsewhere, LME copper inches closer towards USD 10k/t from a USD 9,818/t intraday base, with the softer Dollar and upbeat mood in China spurring prices.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: Jan. MBA Mortgage Applications 1.4%, prior -5.6%
  • 8:30am Dec. CPI data:
    • 8:30am: Dec. CPI YoY, est. 7.0%, prior 6.8%; MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
    • 8:30am: Dec. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 5.4%, prior 4.9%; MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
    • 8:30am: Dec. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior -1.9%, revised -1.7%
    • 8:30am: Dec. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior -1.9%
  • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
  • 2pm: Dec. Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$5b, prior -$191.3b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

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The highlight of the last 24 hours was Chair Powell’s renomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. The overall communicated stance of policy wasn’t much changed with the hawkish pivot still on. Nevertheless, there were a few incremental takeaways. Powell did nothing to push back on liftoff being on the table in March, in line with our US econ team’s call and the increasing probability implied by the market, which is currently 85%. He made it clear that QE (yes it’s still happening) would finish in March, despite speculations it may come to an abrupt halt beforehand. In line with growing consensus, he painted a picture that made the start of QT likely in 2022. Finally, on the overall stance of policy, he emphasised the Fed needs to pull back from extreme levels of accommodation, but didn’t need to rush to get to a neutral stance of policy.

All told, yields did rally with Powell after earlier climbing. Yields on 2yr Treasuries decreased -1.2bps while the 10yr dipped -2.5bps, with the bulk of declines again coming later in New York trading hours. All this ahead of the all-important December US CPI print later today? The print comes out at 13:30 London time, and as you’ll be familiar with by now, repeated upside surprises in the inflation data have sent the year-on-year numbers up to multi-decade highs, putting significant pressure on the Fed. Indeed if you look at the monthly headline CPI reading, 7 of the last 9 releases have come in above the consensus estimate on Bloomberg. In terms of what to expect this time around, our US economists think that year-on-year CPI will rise to +7.0%, which will be the highest annual CPI number since 1982. And if that figure is realised, it would also mean that the real Fed Funds rate in December was around -7%, which for reference is lower than at any point in the 1970s, when the lowest the fed funds rate got in real terms was around -5%.

Over in equity markets, US indices were buoyed by rates rallying, paring back their initial losses as Powell spoke. The S&P 500 was on track for a 6th consecutive loss for the first time since February 2020, before recovering its poise and ending the day up +0.92%, it’s first day in the green since the first trading day of the year. Sector dispersion was wide, as energy (+3.41%) saw a noticeable outperformance as Brent Crude (+3.52%) closed above its pre-Omicron closing level for the first time, reaching $83.72/bbl, just as WTI (+3.82%) also posted a decent advance. Meanwhile tech stocks continue to be the beneficiary of the calm in rates following their slump last week, with the NASDAQ surging +1.41% and the FANG+ index gaining +1.53%.

European equities had a strong day themselves yesterday, although to be fair they were catching up with the rally late in the US session they’d previously missed out on, with the STOXX 600 up +0.84%. The moves were enough to put the DAX (+1.10%) and the CAC 40 (+0.95%) back in positive territory on a YTD basis, and the continued rise in yields helped the STOXX Banks index (+0.28%) match a 3-year high set last Friday. Speaking of yields, there was generally a move higher across Europe yesterday, with those on 10yr bunds (+0.7bps), OATs (+1.6bps) and BTPs (+2.0bps) all rising, although gilts (-2.0bps) were the exception.

Markets across Asia are seeing a significant rally this morning led by gains in the Hang Seng (+2.12%) followed by the Nikkei (+1.85%) and Kospi (+1.39%). Elsewhere, in China, the Shanghai Composite (+0.35%) and CSI (+0.36%) are trading in the green, after the nation’s consumer and producer inflation both moderated leaving room for the PBOC to ease monetary policy. With the inflation remaining subdued, the possibility of a rate cut in China would put the PBOC on a divergent path with the US Fed. Data released earlier revealed that producer prices advanced a less than expected +10.3% y/y last month while consumer prices (a key gauge of retail inflation) increased +1.5% y/y down from 2.3% in November, also short of economists’ forecasts (1.7%). Looking ahead, equity futures are indicating a steady start in DMs with the S&P 500 (+0.06%) and DAX (+0.55%) contracts trading in positive territory.

Turning to Covid, there were further signs yesterday that the Omicron wave in the UK was easing, which is potentially significant more broadly in that it was one of the first places among the advanced economies to be affected, particularly in London, and given that it has seen fairly light social restrictions. Yesterday saw the number of reported Covid cases fall to the lowest since December 27, and in England the number of patients on a mechanical ventilator fell to its lowest in almost 3 months as well, which backs up the argument that Omicron appears to be a milder form of Covid relative to previous variants.

In more DB advertising, we’ve just published the latest edition of The House View, a compilation of DB’s macro and strategy views in slide format. You can find the link here. In addition, in a new Podzept podcast, Tim Rokossa, Global co-ordinator of Automotive research, and Luke Templeman, discuss the 2022 outlook for the global automotive sector. Here’s the podcast (link here) and the associated report (link here).

There wasn’t much at all in the way of data yesterday, though the NFIB’s small business optimism index for December in the US rose to 98.9 (vs. 98.7 expected).

To the day ahead now, and the aforementioned US CPI release for December will be the highlight. Other data releases include Euro Area industrial production for November and the US monthly budget statement for December. From central banks, the Fed will be releasing their Beige Book, and speakers include BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe and the Fed’s Kashkari.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 29.99 PTS OR 0.84%      //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 663.11 PTS OR 2.79% /The Nikkei closed UP 543,18 PTS OR 1 .92%      //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .67%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3656    /Oil UP TO 81.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 83.85 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN     //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP  AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3656. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3717: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN AND OFF SHORE TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///SOUTH KOREA

END

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/COVID

China halts some USA flights as the Omicron wave spreads

(zerohedge)

China Halts Some US Flights As Omicron Wave Spreads

 TUESDAY, JAN 11, 2022 – 07:45 PM

The rate at which new infections of COVID-19 have spread worldwide is rapidly increasing, forcing China’s civil aviation regulator to suspend some flights from the US to Shanghai, according to Shanghai Daily

Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) said five flights to Shanghai operated by Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, United Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines have been suspended beginning next week.

Over 50 passengers on these flights have tested positive since the end of 2021 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the Civil Aviation Administration of China said.

Among the most severely affected, Delta Air Lines Flight DL287 from Seattle to Shanghai will be suspended through the end of February.

Six travelers on the flight tested positive at the Pudong airport on January 1, while another 11 on the same flight tested positive on January 6.

American Airlines Flight AA127 will be put on hold for four weeks beginning January 24 after 10 passengers tested positive upon arrival at Pudong Airport on December 31.

Other flights, such as China Eastern’s MU588 from New York to Shanghai and United Airlines Flight UA857 from San Francisco to Shanghai, will be suspended for two weeks beginning next week. -Shanghai Daily 

CAAC further explained that flight suspensions would end if an airline’s inbound passengers all test negative for three weeks. Then it would be allowed to add two flights per week.

The move comes as the US faces a surge in Omicron infections. New cases are set to triple last year’s quarter-million daily caseload. The seven-day average is around 704k. 

Since the virus pandemic began, China and the US have slapped each other with flight restrictions to minimize the spread of the virus. 

end

CHINA

China tightens lockdowns again in the major port of Dalian. The olympics are a few weeks away.

(zerohedge)

China Tightens Lockdown Measures As Omicron Spreads To Another Port City

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 07:12 AM

The situation in China continues to deteriorate ahead of the start of the Winter Olympics in Beijing as authorities have confirmed 2 cases of the omicron variant in yet another city. This time, the new outbreak is coming from Dalian, another important port city.

On Wednesday, China reported about 170 new locally transmitted cases, with 118 in central Henan province, 37 in the northern port city Tianjin, eight in northwestern Shaanxi province (where the capital city of Xi’an has been locked down for almost three weeks) and seven in the southern technology hub of Shenzhen, according to the National Health Commission. There have also been new cases of the omicron variant detected in Dalian, as we mentioned above.

Three Chinese cities remain completely locked down, while Tianjin is only partially locked down (it has also been sealed off from outsiders; only those with permission are allowed to arrive and depart).

Meanwhile, in Tianjin, a city just 130 km from Beijing, authorities are tightening lockdown measures in three districts to try and stop the spread of COVID. Their biggest fear, of course, would be an outbreak in the capital city just in time to upend the Winter Olympics (the last thing the CCP wants is a disastrous Olympic Games like Japan struggled with over the summer).

In Tianjin, restaurants, movie theaters, gyms and any other indoor sources of “entertainment” have all been closed. Its 14MM residents are also being required to undergo another round of city-wide mass testing.

Here’s more details on the newest cases of omicron confirmed in Dalian, courtesy of Xinhua:

The two who returned from north China’s Tianjin Municipality had tested negative for the virus when they left Tianjin on Jan. 8. They had reported negative test results on Monday, but both turned positive during the routine nucleic acid testing on Wednesday morning.

The two are college friends and had been in Jinnan District of Tianjin, a region hit hard by the recent virus resurgence in China, for about six days. They arrived in Dalian on Jan. 9 on an overnight train. Close contacts of the two have been put under medical observation and further epidemiological investigation is underway.

As a reminder, the cities under full lockdown include Xi’an, Anyang and Yuzhou. Goldman Sachs slashed its forecast for Chinese GDP growth in 2022 as the bank’s analysts expect the burgeoning omicron wave to hamstring the Chinese economy. The Chinese media has insisted that the lockdowns aren’t having a major impact on ports and chip manufacturers, but the notion that lockdowns wouldn’t stifle economic growth is just a little too far-fetched to believe. Although a slowing commodity crunch has helped ease inflationary pressures in China.

What’s more, Chinese health authorities have repeatedly confirmed new cases of omicron in increments of two. As we know, omicron doesn’t spread like this. Where there are two cases, there are likely more. But if we have learned anything over the past two years, it’s that China’s numbers aren’t to be trusted. Chinese authorities have suspended six more US flights in coming weeks amid a surge in passengers testing positive for COVID. This brings to 70 the number of cancellations this year.

END

CHINA

Special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us”If you wondered how far can China go in displaying no regard for its’ citizens, this is it. And we want to trade or invest in such a place with people with no regard for human rights? 
https://m.theepochtimes.com/china-seals-peoples-doors-xian-residents-cry-for-food_4206750.html?utm_source=morningbriefnoe&utm_medium=email_MB&utm_campaign=mb-2022-01-11&utm_content=News_China_Seals_Peoples&est=1m807iQBUMRuEHxQGbO7VgILyFau08O7X5Ct4FYT7QpqmxJiG1tsRdo8

China Seals People’s Doors, Xi’an Residents Cry for Food

Staff members wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) spray disinfectant outside a shopping mall in Xi'an, China, on Jan. 11, 2022. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

The Chinese regime sealed residents’ homes in Xi’an on Jan. 8, but didn’t arrange for a reliable food supply, residents say. After being locked down for almost three weeks, they are lacking in food and on the edge of mental breakdown.

The Chinese regime has claimed the COVID-19 outbreak in Xi’an has been under control since Jan. 5. However, the regime upgraded the control measures and Xi’an residents still can’t leave their homes even on Jan. 11.

“I had never been diagnosed with COVID-19. Why did they seal my door?” Cai Jiaying (pseudonym), a resident at Rongshang Compound, Changyanbao Community, Yanta district in Xi’an, told the Chinese-language edition of The Epoch Times on Jan. 9. “Our residential compound has been locked down for 21 days. … In the beginning [of the lockdown], I consoled myself. I was disappointed days later, and then felt hopeless and despair. This morning, I went crazy.”

Cai said that she and her husband had only bought a little food successfully in the past three weeks, and didn’t know when they could buy some more.

“I’m worried that we won’t have anything to eat soon. We don’t dare to fill our stomachs. We go to bed after a meal at 3:00 to 4:00 p.m. every afternoon. We sleep more to save food,” Cai said. She said that the family only had a small bowl of rice, 11 pounds of wheat flour, seven cups of instant noodles, one bamboo shoot, and a little bit of meat at home. “The food can feed us for at most one week.”

Other Xi’an residents told The Epoch Times similar stories in phone interviews.

Epoch Times Photo
<img class=”size-medium wp-image-4206770″ src=”https://img.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2022/01/11/GettyImages-1237655226-600×400.jpg” alt=”Epoch Times Photo” width=”600″ height=”400″ /> Staff members wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) spray disinfectant outside a shopping mall in Xi’an, China, on Jan. 11, 2022. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

Continued Lockdown

On Jan. 11, Xi’an authorities announced that nine communities in the city were downgraded to low-risk regions where people have few chances to contact COVID-19 patients, and 44 others still remained high-risk or medium-risk regions.

The regime didn’t mention how many communities there were in the city, nor details of the lockdown policies in different risk regions.

On Jan. 10, local authorities announced another standard to divide the city, called “Closed Zone,” “Controlled Zone,” and “Prevention Zone.” In general, residents in closed zones aren’t allowed to leave their homes no matter how healthy they are or how urgent their need to go out.

The regime said that zones could be downgraded if no resident in the zone was infected with the CCP virus or had contact with COVID-19 patients in the past 14 days, and all residents tested negative within 48 hours.

The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, commonly known as novel coronavirus, is the virus that causes the disease COVID-19.

Epoch Times Photo
<img class=”size-medium wp-image-4206768″ src=”https://img.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2022/01/11/GettyImages-1237655629-600×400.jpg” alt=”Epoch Times Photo” width=”600″ height=”400″ /> Staff members wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) spray disinfectant outside a shopping mall in Xi’an, China, on Jan. 11, 2022. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

Livelihood in Xi’an

Being locked down at home or in a dorm, Xi’an residents are suffering.

“We don’t know how to obtain food [after the regime sealed our home’s door]. We only have a few cabbage leaves at home,” Xu Qianru (pseudonym), a resident at Changyanbao community in Yanta district told the Chinese-language edition of The Epoch Times on Jan. 9. “We kept on calling the residential compound’s management company, but nobody answered the phone.”

Xu’s apartment was sealed by the management company on the evening of Jan. 8. She learned from her neighbors that all apartments in the compound were sealed. “Several thousand families in our compound are sealed at home like us … Our lives are really difficult,” Xu added.

“We had eaten all our stock [in the past weeks during the lockdown], and we can’t buy anything. Do you [Xi’an officials] want the over ten thousand residents [in the compound] to die of starvation?” Yang Hai, a resident of Hengdacheng at Dazhai road, Yanta district, complained in a video posted on social media platforms on Jan. 8.

Yang shared photos of the residential compound, which showed that the regime locked the doors of the residential unit by using iron wires and sealed the apartment doors by using paper.

“Do you [officials] treat us, the people, like animals?” Yang criticized. “We can’t receive any materials [food] after the doors are sealed!”

College students in Xi’an have been locked down in dorms since late December last year, and aren’t allowed to leave the building, not to mention go home even though some of their homes are in the city.

“We have six ladies sharing one room … We stay in our twin-over-twin bunk beds for most of the time during the day,” Fu Hua (pseudonym) told the Chinese-language edition of The Epoch Times on Jan. 8. “We study different majors and have different class schedules. [Since the lockdown began,] we take online classes at the dorm, and we can’t avoid interfering with each other.”

Fu said that she felt frustrated about the lockdown. She would even prefer to be sent to a quarantine center for 14 days if the regime would allow her to go home after the quarantine.

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Nicole Hao is a Washington-based reporter focused on China-related topics. Before joining the Epoch Media Group in July 2009, she worked as a global product manager for a railway business in Paris, France.

It is just not real estate over investment that hurts China

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Robert Hryniak8:37 AM (0 minutes ago)
to

This is reality of a system not geared for flooding … china has severe internal problems that will hold back their desire to dominate as cash flow becomes more restricted due to flooding and economic dislocations and society lockdowns…./. Let alone what diminished demand will do.

Cheers
RobertAttachments areaPreview YouTube video China Is Turning Into China Sea, Millions Resident Escape After Three Gorges Dam OverflowChina Is Turning Into China Sea, Millions Resident Escape After Three Gorges Dam Overflow

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

//UKCOVID/VACCINE

Probably true!  The UK citizens have been hit quite hard and no doubt that they have developed antibodies to the virus.

They should finally escape the pandemic and the virus will become endemic.  The vaccinated will still have to deal with injuries.

(Zhang/EpochTimes)

UK “Closest Of Any Country” To Exiting COVID-19 Pandemic: Expert

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Alexander Zhang via The Epoch Times,

The UK is the closest of any country in the northern hemisphere to exiting the COVID-19 pandemic and seeing it become endemic, an expert has said.

Professor David Heymann, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said the UK is probably one of the countries with the highest levels of population immunity.

Talking at a Chatham House online briefing on Tuesday, Heymann said that countries in the northern hemisphere have “varying stages of the pandemic,” and the UK is probably “the closest to any country of being out of the pandemic if it isn’t already out of the pandemic and having the disease as endemic.”

He said population immunity is already high and “seems to be keeping the virus and its variants at bay, not causing serious illness or death.

Heymann cited the Office for National Statistics as saying that about 95 percent of the population in England and a little less in other parts of the UK already have antibodies either from vaccination or from natural infection.

The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, which caused the COVID-19 pandemic, is now “functioning more like an endemic coronavirus than one that is a pandemic,” he said.

The leading expert said there would be resurgences of COVID-19 in the future and more variants will arise, though it was not clear of what severity.

“We’re fortunate in that we have vaccines which can be modified very rapidly, and put into production very rapidly to deal with an escapee,” he said.

Other British experts have voiced similar views on the trajectory of the disease.

Clive Dix, former chairman of Britain’s vaccine taskforce, said over the weekend that mass vaccination against COVID-19 should come to an end and the UK should focus on managing it as an endemic disease like flu.

Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London and the lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study app, said last month that the symptoms of the Omicron variant “feel much more like the common cold.”

Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, also added on Dec. 28 that COVID-19 will become “just another cause of the common cold.”

But an expert working for the European arm of the World Health Organisation (WHO) said COVID-19 is “still a way off” from becoming endemic.

Dr. Catherine Smallwood, senior emergency officer at the WHO Regional Office for Europe, told a press briefing on Tuesday that the conditions for endemicity are “not being met” as “the virus is not settling into a stable rate of transmission and there’s still a lot of unpredictability.” 

end

EUROPE/VACCINE/BOOSTER

finally Europe’s version of the FDA warns against vaccine boosters

(Ly/EpochTimes)

Europe’s FDA Warns Against Vaccine Boosters, Expresses Concerns Over Immune Response

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 10:00 AM

Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

The European Union’s drug regulator expressed doubts about whether a second booster dose of the currently available COVID-19 vaccines would be a sustainable long-term approach.

Marco Cavaleri, the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA) head of vaccines strategy, told a media briefing, “There is an emergency discussion around the possibility of giving a second booster dose with the same vaccine currently in use. Data has not yet been generated to support this approach.

“We have not yet seen data with respect to a fourth dose,” he also said later. “We would like to see this data before we can make any recommendation, but at the same time we are rather concerned about a strategy that [involves] repeated vaccinations within a short term.”

Cavaleri said an additional booster shot “could be considered as part of a contingency plan,” but “repeated vaccinations within short intervals will not represent a sustainable long term strategy.”

Concerns Over Immune Response

When asked to expand on his statements, Cavaleri said that for a hypothetical approach of giving boosters frequently, such as every four months, “we will end up potentially having problems with immune response and immune response may end up not being as good as we would like it to be, so we should be careful in not overloading the immune system with repeated immunization.”

He added that continuous administration of boosters can also lead to fatigue in the population.

“It will be much better to start thinking about an administration of boosters that is more spaced in time,” Cavaleri said.

The EMA is in conversation with vaccine developers in case there is a need to update the current vaccines, he said, but noted that any change “would have to be coordinated globally.”

A screen grab from laptop shows Marco Cavaleri, Head of Biological Health Threats and Vaccines Strategy, speaks during an online press conference in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, on Dec. 21, 2020. (Pieter Stam de Jonge/ANP/AFP via Getty Images)

Meanwhile, more data on the impact of the new variant—in this case, Omicron—on vaccines and a better understanding of the evolution of the current wave were needed to decide whether an Omicron-specific vaccine was needed.

“While a monovalent Omicron vaccine would represent an obvious candidate to be investigated, other options such as a multivalent vaccine cannot be ruled out as potential alternatives,” Cavaleri said.

A Strategy to ‘Anticipate the Next Move’

He added, “It is important that there is a good discussion around the choice of the composition of the vaccine to make sure that we have a strategy that is not just reactive after the virus changes, but try to anticipate what could be the next move, and try to come up with an approach that will be suitable in order to prevent a future variant that, in any case, will emerge.”

The EMA has called for a meeting with global regulators on Wednesday, which will include officials from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

“Tomorrow we will be looking at all the evidence that we have so far with the current vaccine, so the extent by which they are still providing vaccine effectiveness and whether indeed we should still think that giving a booster shot at this point in time is the best strategy,” Cavaleri said.

He added that the World Health Organization (WHO) “will play a critical role” in decision-making.

Cavaleri noted that the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, which causes COVID-19, “is still behaving as a pandemic virus, and the Omicron emergency is currently showing that.”

“So we should not forget we are still in a pandemic. Nevertheless, with increase of immunity in the population and with Omicron there will be a lot of natural immunity taking place on top of vaccination, we will be vastly moving toward a scenario that will be closer to endemicity,” he said.

Separately, he noted, “Ideally, if you want to move toward a scenario of endemicity, then such boosters should be synchronized with the arrival of the cold seasons in each of the hemispheres, similarly to what we’re doing with influenza vaccines.”

Pfizer Looking at Omicron-Targeted Vaccine

On Monday, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said a COVID-19 vaccine that specifically targets the Omicron variant of the virus as well as already circulating variants “will be ready in March,” adding that the company is “already starting manufacturing some of these quantities at risk.”

Bourla said Pfizer is ready to file for U.S. regulatory approval for the redesigned COVID-19 vaccine, and that the company has built up ample manufacturing capacity, such that it will not be a problem to switch immediately. He also noted on Monday that COVID-19 vaccines eventually could be an annual shot for most people, and some high-risk groups might be eligible to receive the shots more often than that.

On Tuesday, Cavaleri said that April or May would be the soonest the EMA could approve any variant-targeted vaccine.

“In terms of the switch of the manufacturing, this is a decision that is beyond EMA and it will be very important there is a global discussion around the best option here in the interest of public health,” he commented.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/USA//NATO

Russia Lays Out Security Demands At NATO HQ Amid ‘Live Fire’ Exercises Near Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 09:06 AM

Coming off the initial day of talks between Russia and NATO wherein the US informed the Kremlin side that its central security demands are a “a non-starter”, the continuing dialogue which moved to Brussels Wednesday began with little expectation for any breakthroughs.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko went to NATO headquarters in Brussels where he was received by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Despite new Russian military live-fire exercises which took place near the border on Tuesday, the Kremlin has reiterated that there are no plans for any offensive on Ukraine

Speaking from Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov tried to assure the good faith nature of its engaging with NATO this week. “We are not negotiating from a position of strength; there is not, and nor can there be, any place for ultimatums here,” he said as the talks in Brussels were initiated Wednesday. This amid continued accusations that its troop build-up is all about forcing NATO to the table and forcing leverage to protect Moscow’s red lines.Live fire drills near Ukraine on Tuesday, source: mil.ru

But he underscored that Russia must see that the West is taking its demands seriously and implementing positive action, according to Reuters. Also according to Reuters, the Russian side again emphasized its central request of no further NATO eastward expansion, which it’s further seeking written security guarantees to ensure:

Grushko, a former Russian ambassador to NATO, has said Russia wants to avoid confrontation. His direct colleague Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov – who held talks with the United States in Geneva but who was not in Brussels on Wednesday – has said Ukraine must never be allowed to join NATO.

NATO has no immediate plans to admit Ukraine, but says Russia cannot dictate its relations with other sovereign states.

NATO diplomats, meanwhile, have sought to present this week’s talks as not a “negotiation” but as an initial “dialogue” and have said they would be deemed successful if they simply led to more open talks. This while calling the draft proposals submitted by Moscow thus far “unacceptable”

The West is still sticking firmly by its charge that Moscow precipitated the current standoff and crisis over Ukraine, which has seen Washington prepare far-reaching sanctions in the event of any military offensive. Concerning Tuesday’s drills, Moscow Times details

The Defense Ministry said 3,000 troops and 300 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles have been deployed across three western Russian regions bordering Ukraine and one bordering Belarus. 

The military’s Western Military District said the motorized rifle drills will involve T-72B3 main battle tanks and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles. The drills stretch across western Russia’s Voronezh, Belgorod, Bryansk and Smolensk regions.

Jens Stoltenberg is expected to brief reporters after exiting Wednesday’s negotiations in Brussels. Live feed:

Let’s be clear: Russian actions have precipitated this crisis. We are committed to using diplomacy to de-escalate the situation,” U.S. envoy to NATO Julianne Smith said at a press conference Tuesday night. She said of the alleged some 100,000 Russian troops mustered near the Ukrainian border: “We want to see … Russia pulling back its forces.”

END

IRAN/USA/ISRAEL

AFGHANISTAN

the USA sanctions are killing Afghan citizens as 23 million are on the brink of starvation

(Andrea Geremanon/CommonDreams)

23 Million Afghans On Brink Of Starvation As Media Has ‘Moved On’

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Andrea Germanos via Common Dreams,

Progressive US lawmakers and human rights advocates are urging the Biden administration to immediately lift economic sanctions on Afghanistan that are fueling a humanitarian disaster and as famine threatens millions in the war-torn nation. “Aid groups have predicted that if current U.S. economic policy toward Afghanistan continues, there could be more civilian deaths this year than there were in 20 years of war,” the Congressional Progressive Caucus tweeted Sunday. “The Biden administration can, and must, act now.”

The Taliban seized control of the country in August following the U.S. military’s withdrawal after two decades of a military occupation that enriched weapons makers but did little to benefit the Afghan people. Following its defeat, the U.S. then imposed new sanctions the Taliban government, while the World Bank and IMF froze crucial assets.Getty Images

While last summer’s troop pullout received widespread corporate media coverage, the country crisis is now largely absent from news reports. There’s been a “stunning plunge” in coverage, as foreign policy analyst Jim Lobe put it late last month, despite “unprecedented levels of hunger and starvation for which U.S. sanctions bear important responsibility.”

Warnings from aid groups about the humanitarian impacts of Western nations cutting off vital aid to the country were clear in the weeks following the military withdrawal. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, for example, warned of “imminent collapse of health services and widespread hunger”—crises made worse by the coming harsh winter and a fuel crisis.

In a mid-December statement, Mary-Ellen McGroarty, the World Food Program’s country director in Afghanistan, put the situation in stark terms. “Afghanistan is facing an avalanche of hunger and destitution the likes of which I have never seen in my 20 plus years with the World Food Program,” she said.

With a new year underway, the situation remains dire; the International Rescue Committee said last week that Afghanistan was the country “most at risk of worsening humanitarian crisis in 2022.” As a result of the international community’s suspension of most nonhumanitarian aid and the freezing of billions of assets, said IRC, “most health clinics have closed and the economy has spiraled downward (risking near-universal poverty).”

According to one Afghan identified as Awesta who works with IRC, “The international community has turned its back on us.”

“The healthcare system is on the brink of collapse,” the person said, and “most Afghans can’t afford to feed themselves or their families, and, with millions marching towards famine, I am desperately concerned for the people of my country.”

The humanitarian group estimated that “throughout early 2022, 55% of Afghans will face acute food insecurity, including nearly 9 million people at emergency levels—one step before famine conditions.”

“Food insecurity is likely to deepen in 2022 as the country is facing shortages of food, rapidly rising food prices, and an ongoing drought,” the group said, noting that the food crisis coincides with an increasingly critical situation for girls and women, who face a “higher risk of gender-based violence, child marriage, and exploitation and abuse as resources become scarce and needs go unmet.”

Writing Sunday at The Intercept, Murtaza Hussain put the blame squarely on “U.S. sanctions policy” for “pushing Afghans over the edge.”

As Paul Spiegel, director of the Center for Humanitarian Health at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, wrote this December, after returning from a trip to Afghanistan on behalf of the WHO, “I can clearly state that if the United States and other Western governments do not change their Afghanistan sanction policies, more Afghans will die from sanctions than at the hands of the Taliban.”

The deaths will be brought about as a result of deliberate policy decisions made in the U.S. Alongside new sanctions imposed after the Taliban takeover, the U.S. froze nearly $10 billion of Afghanistan’s central bank holdings here. The Biden administration refuses to release the funds despite ongoing public protests by Afghans.

Author and Jacobin staff writer Branko Marcetic also noted that “for months, the IMF, World Bank, aid organizations, and others stopped the flow of foreign aid to the country—which, before the Taliban takeover, had accounted for three-quarters of public spending and 43 percent of Afghanistan’s GDP.” The country’s healthcare system and economy, he added, are “nearing collapse.”

“This is an almost wholly man-made crisis,” wrote Marcetic, “and the reason it’s being engineered and stubbornly held in place is because Washington and European powers, in their telling, don’t want to ‘reward’ the Taliban for their medieval treatment of women.” But that logic, he said, is both critically flawed and “repugnant.”

“The ones bearing the brunt of all this are ordinary Afghan people, whom Washington and its allies are using as ransom to force the Taliban to stop repressing . . . those same people, who these governments are busy humanitarianly starving to death,” he continued. “This makes no sense, and it suggests that none of it has anything to do with concerns for Afghan people’s welfare, but rather is about punishing a faction of political foes that embarrassed Western militaries.”

To avert further humanitarian catastrophe, a group of 46 House Democrats last month urged President Joe Biden to urgently stop imposing and supporting economic policies that threaten to plunge Afghanistan—”which relies overwhelmingly on imports that require hard currency—deeper into economic and humanitarian crisis.”

“Punitive economic policies will not weaken Taliban leaders, who will be shielded from the direst consequences,” the lawmakers wrote, “while the overwhelming impact of these measures will fall on innocent Afghans who have already suffered decades of war and poverty.”

end

NATO: We Won’t Give Up “Right” To Station Troops In States Ringing Russia

WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 01:04 PM

As we detailed earlier, a Kremlin delegation led by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko went to NATO headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday where he was received by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. The meeting reportedly lasted four hours.

“If Russia once again uses force against Ukraine and further invades Ukraine, then we have to seriously look into the need to further increase our presence in the eastern part of the alliance,” Stoltenberg told reporters after Wednesday’s meeting.

While Stoltenberg reiterated what’s at stake amid the ‘Ukraine 2.0’ crisis, highlighting “a real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe” – Russia has continued to assure the West it is not planning any kind of Ukraine invasion.File image: AFP

At the same time, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman – who led Monday talks for the US in Geneva – condemned Russia’s “unprovoked military buildup” near Ukraine. She also said that NATO poses no threat to Russia, and that Moscow should not see the Western military alliance as such.

Below are key points made in the NATO Secretary-General’s press conference just after meeting with the Russians…

Stoltenberg says NATO is standing firmly by its “open door policy” – after Moscow has demanded that Brussels rescind its prior offer of a “path” for Ukraine and Georgia membership:

“Today Russia raised the proposal that they published in December aimed at addressing their security concerns; these include demands to stop admitting any new member to NATO and withdraw forces from eastern allies. Allies on their side reaffirmed NATO’s open door policy and the right for each nation to choose its own security arrangements. Allies made clear that they will not renounce their ability to protect and defend each other, including with the presence of troops in the eastern part of the alliance.”

Dialogue of last two sessions was “positive”:

“There are significant differences between NATO allies and Russia on these issues, and the differences will not be easy to bridge. But it is a positive sign that all NATO allies and Russia sat down around the same table,” Stoltenberg said.

NATO called on Russia to draw down its forces from sensitive hotspots, including what the West say is “annexed” or “occupied” Crimea: 

Stoltenberg indicated that the bloc called on Russia during the meeting to ‘withdraw its forces’ from Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – presumably in a reference to Russian peacekeeping forces stationed in Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and to Crimea – the region which broke off from Ukraine and rejoined Russia in 2014 following a Western-backed coup in Kiev.

The NATO side further “expressed serious concern” about Russia’s military build-up “in and around Ukraine”: 

“They also called on Russia to refrain from aggressive force posturing and malign activities directed against allies and abide by all its international obligations and commitments,” Stoltenberg said.

The Western alliance offered to “broaden” the scope of issues being considered in negotiations, which for now the Russian side appears to have rejected:

The NATO chief said the bloc was prepared to hold further meetings with Russia on a broad range of issues, including missiles, but said that the Russian side had indicated that they are not ready to do so at this stage.

“NATO made it clear in the meeting that we are ready to schedule a series of meetings addressing a wide range of different topics, including missiles and reciprocal verifiable limits on missiles, in Europe. From the Russian side, they made clear that they are not ready,” Stoltenberg said.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1481259296721616902&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fnato-we-wont-given-right-station-troops-states-ringing-russia&sessionId=1ba30a44f30949c0248e0c05855db7e1940f40e0&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=86e9194f%3A1641882287124&width=550px

This week’s series of three meetings will wrap up Thursday in Vienna, at the Organization for Security Co-operation in Europe, which includes NATO members, Russia, and Eastern European states that are uneasy over Russia’s influence in their spheres.

To review, these are the key requests Russia previously submitted to Brussels and Washington in a draft security document:

In a broad outline, Russia’s stance boils down to three key points: the pullout of US nuclear weapons from Europe, the termination of the practice of deploying NATO’s conventional forces near Russia’s borders and creating its military infrastructure there and NATO’s official refusal to draw Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance.

In Moscow’s opinion, these measures will help remedy a serious imbalance in security in Europe that emerged after the break-up of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. This will help considerably ease the military and political tension and rejoin the baseline principle affirmed by all of the OSCE member states at their Istanbul summit in 1999 that the security of one state or a group of states cannot be ensured at the expense of the security of other states.

* * *

A few thoughts on the crisis from Rabobank

Does a US that won’t fight in Europe and a Europe that can’t fight anywhere scare a Russia that can? Equally, does the threat of US financial sanctions deter Putin when they have not stopped anyone to date and would splinter the global economy, as China would surely not comply, and Europe couldn’t? These also seem a ‘nuclear weapon’ the US is unlikely to use. As such, the likely costs for Moscow are perhaps lower than the potential gains from acting on its comparative advantage —military, food, and energy— to ensure a permanent sphere of influence. In short:

  • If the West blinks –and the US Secretary of State is literally Blinken– it dismantles the global security architecture and emboldens “revisionist powers” everywhere.
  • If Moscow blinks, the status quo limps along to the next pushback from one of the “revisionists”, and we see if the EU and White House learn any lessons in the meantime.
  • If nobody blinks, your 2022 forecasts are already wrong. We are back to the geopolitics of the 1930’s on WW2’s starting line, and WW1’s too if this spills over into Bosnia with Russian help. (Note the deepening US military presence in Albania.)

Yes, recent wars have only happened to poor people far away who can’t fight back, but the fat tail risks of poor people not so far way being hit are of massive volatility in FX, stocks, bond yields, energy, wheat, aluminium, and potash, which means food prices most everywhere. Crucially, these are *not* too awful to materialize, just as Covid wasn’t. Yet if we are determined to avoid them regardless, then strategic studies experts argue the only logical routes are giving Russia (and others) what they want, which is destabilising, or pushing back aggressively, which is destabilising. On which cheery note, today also sees US inflation, which might have ended 2021 over 7% y/y. Who saw that coming?

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6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE

(Natural News)

Bombshell data from 145 countries show that covid vaccines INCREASE covid-19 associated sickness and death

Monday, January 10, 2022 by: Lance D Johnson
Tags: badhealthbadmedicineboosterscovid-19 pandemicdepopulationgenocideherd immunitymandatesMedical Tyrannytotalitarianismvaccinevaccine damageVaccine deathsvaccine injuryvaccine mandate

13KVIEWS

Image: Bombshell data from 145 countries show that covid vaccines INCREASE covid-19 associated sickness and death

(Natural News) The most coercive vaccine program in the history of the world has yielded terrifying results across 145 different countries. Data from these heavily-vaccinated countries show that covid vaccines increase both the total COVID-19 case load per million and the total number of deaths associated with COVID-19. This statistical trend of depopulation occurred in approximately 88% of the countries studied. This increase in cases and deaths is a direct result of the causal impact of the vaccine rollout.

These findings are derived from an independent analysis, titled, “Worldwide Bayesian Causal Impact Analysis of Vaccine Administration on Deaths and Cases Associated with COVID-19: A Big Data Analysis of 145 Countries.” The source data is collected from Our World in Data and analyzed by Kyle Beattie. This independent analysis has been ignored by the CDC, the FDA and the NIH since October of 2021. As a result, the intent of these government agencies is becoming clearer by the day.

Vaccine mandate did not lead to herd immunity, caused spike in covid-19 cases and deaths instead

The vaccine was sold to the public as the “key to getting back our freedoms.” Lock downs, restrictions, mandates and other threats to civil liberties and individual rights were used by totalitarian governments to coerce maximum compliance with this medical experiment. The pharmaceutical companies, the politicians, Big Tech and the corporate media promised that these new mRNA vaccines would reduce symptoms across the population and thereby reduce the number of covid cases and deaths associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome. However, after a year of pushing vaccines on the public through unlawful mandates, the opposite is proving true.

This statistical analysis used standard computing procedures to determine the causal effect of vaccine administration on two dependent variables that have been measured throughout the covid-19 scandal. The results of the analysis were troubling. The statistical analysis found that causal impacts of the vaccine on covid-19 cases range from -46% to +12240%, with an average causal impact of +260.88%. Additionally, causal impacts of the vaccine on covid-19 associated deaths range from -19% to +19015%, with an average causal impact of +463.13%. At the worst end of the spectrum, 80% of the COVID deaths in the UK in December 2021 were in fully vaccinated people.

This uptick in covid-19 cases and deaths comes even after the CDC ordered laboratories to use PCR tests with lower cycle thresholds for people who are vaccinated. The CDC even called on laboratories to stop reporting covid-19 cases in the vaccinated. But covid-19 testing programs continued, regardless, and covid-19 began to describe various mild to severe illnesses in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated, with different variants cropping up in the population.

With their mandates and false narratives, governments routinely violate the Nuremberg code, causing DEMOCIDE

Even though there is enough vaccine coverage for herd immunity to be realized, (if the vaccines neutralized the threat), “fully vaccinated” and “boosted” people continue to suffer from enhanced respiratory disease, cardiovascular issues, and other vaccine injuries. In the US, covid-19 vaccines are associated with a 38% increase in cases (per million) and a 31% increase in deaths associated with covid-19 (per million). Governments have forced a false vaccine narrative onto the population, repeatedly violating the Nuremberg Code and forcing democide onto families across the country.

As this medical experiment continues to fail, totalitarian governments continue to use mandates and threats to punish the very people who refuse to accept LIES, coercion, immune depletion, cardiovascular injury and potential DEATH. Instead of forcing a pharmaceutical narrative onto the public, policy makers must look objectively at the cold hard data and warn the public about the disastrous effects of the first three rounds of the covid-19 vaccine experiment.

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IVERMECTIN

This is very important.  Special thanks to G and Chris Powell for sending this to us:

Ivermectin ‘Works Throughout All Phases’ Of COVID According To Leaked Military Documents -In 2005 Virology Journal official Publication of Fauci NIH acknowledged Chloroquine as inhibitor of SARS

Inbox

Gijsbert Groenewegen8:26 AM (7 minutes ago)
to Gijsbert

Ivermectin ‘Works Throughout All Phases’ Of COVID According To Leaked Military Documents

WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 06:11 AM

Update (1505ET): As more and more information pours out of the Project Veritasleaked military documents, there appears to be a damning section in support of Ivermectin as a Covid-19 treatment.

“Ivermectin (identified as curative in April 2020) works throughout all phases of illness because it both inhibits viral replication and modulates the immune response.”

And this:

Will DARPA confirm or deny?

See the documents below:

*  *  *

Authored by Sundance via The Last Refuge,

Project Veritas has obtained military documents hidden on a classified system [HERE – and HERE – and HERE] showing how EcoHealth Alliance approached DARPA in March 2018, seeking funding to conduct gain of function research of bat borne coronaviruses.

The proposal, named Project Defuse, was rejected by DARPA over safety concerns and the notion that it violated the gain of function research moratorium.  However, according to the documents, NIAID, under the direction of Dr. Fauci, went ahead with the research in Wuhan, China and at several sites across the U.S.

[ZH – and just today,Twitter bannedProject Veritas’ Eric Spracklen…]

[WASHINGTON, D.C. – Jan. 10, 2022] Project Veritas has obtained startling never-before-seen documents regarding the origins of COVID-19, gain of function research, vaccines, potential treatments which have been suppressed, and the government’s effort to conceal all of this.

The documents in question stem from a report at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, better known as DARPA, which were hidden in a top-secret shared drive.

DARPA is an agency under the U.S. Department of Defense in charge of facilitating research in technology with potential military applications.

Project Veritas has obtained a separate report to the Inspector General of the Department of Defense written by U.S. Marine Corp Major, Joseph Murphy, a former DARPA Fellow.

The report states that EcoHealth Alliance approached DARPA in March 2018, seeking funding to conduct gain of function research of bat borne coronaviruses. The proposal, named Project Defuse, was rejected by DARPA over safety concerns and the notion that it violates the basis gain of function research moratorium.

According to the documents, NIAID, under the direction of Dr. Fauci, went ahead with the research in Wuhan, China and at several sites across the U.S. (read more)

Here’s my answer to the question posed by James O’Keefe.

In the original pdf guidance for the 2014 research pause of into weaponization of SARS viruses there was an important footnote [LINK]:

[FN¹  SOURCE – U.S. Government Gain-of-Function Deliberative Process and Research Funding Pause on Selected Gain-of-Function Research Involving Influenza, MERS, and SARS Viruses – pdf, page 2 – October 17, 2014]

Timeline:

♦ October 17, 2014 – U.S. funding of SARS to create a biological weapon was pauseddue to the extreme risk of a pandemic.  However, the pause allowed agencies within the U.S. government to continue funding if they determined “the research is urgently necessary to protect the public health or national security.” [LINK]

 2014 through 2020 the Pentagon continued funding research in Wuhan, China. Fear of discovery would explain why many top officials in the U.S. Defense Department were against the Trump administration [with increased severityafterthe COVID pandemic began]. [LINK]

♦ May 2016 – [An Election Year] – “after thorough deliberation and extensive input from domestic and international stakeholders, the NSABB [National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity] issued its recommendations. NSABB’s central finding was that studies that are expected to enhance Potential Pandemic Pathogen (PPP) have potential benefits to public health but alsoentail significant risks. NSABB recommended that such studies warranted additional scrutiny prior to being funded.”  Anthony Fauci is on the NSABB.

 January 9, 2017 – [Four Days after the Susan Rice Oval Office meeting with Obama, Biden, Comey, et al] – The Obama Administration re-authorizes funding for the creation of SARS biological weapons.  “Adoption of these recommendations will satisfy the requirements forlifting the current moratoriumon certain life sciences research that could enhance a pathogen’s virulence and/or transmissibility to produce a potential pandemic pathogen (an enhanced PPP).“ [LINK]

Given the workarounds, exceptions and plausible deniability for the consequences, built into the original moratorium guidance in 2014, the defense department was operationally permitted to keep funding the biological weapons research in Wuhan, China.  The 2014 ban was a funding moratorium in name only; however, it appears the funding for U.S. research in North Carolina was stopped.

What was reauthorized in 2017, just before President Trump took office, was the need to use “national security” as an excuse to continue the research.  It also appears funding of SARS as a biological weapon inside the U.S. (North Carolina) was now permitted again.

REFERENCES SO FAR:  – 2017 – Policy Guidelines from Obama Administration – 2014 – pdf link of Research Funding Pause – National Science Advisory Board (Wiki) – Pentagon Funding for SARS research 2013 through 2020.

If you accept that the Pentagon would never spend to develop a biological weapon in China (Wuhan Lab) unless they already had developed that weapon on their own (North Carolina Lab), then the question about the release of that weapon starts to take shape.

Remember, the State Department was looking into the origin until Joe Biden shut them down and redirected the goal to the Intelligence Community.  In essence, Biden handed the mission to the Fourth Branch of Government.   Not surprisingly, after a few months the IC said their results were “inconclusive.”

 [Excerpt] – […] In one State Department meeting, officials seeking to demand transparency from the Chinese government say they were explicitly told by colleagues not to explore the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s gain-of-function research, because it would bring unwelcome attention to U.S. government funding of it.

In an internal memo obtained by Vanity Fair, Thomas DiNanno, former acting assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance, wrote that staff from two bureaus, his own and the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, “warned” leaders within his bureau “not to pursue an investigation into the origin of COVID-19” because it would “‘open a can of worms’ if it continued.”

[…] In late March, former Centers for Disease Control director Robert Redfield received death threats from fellow scientists after telling CNN that he believed COVID-19 had originated in a lab. “I was threatened and ostracized because I proposed another hypothesis,” Redfield told Vanity Fair. “I expected it from politicians. I didn’t expect it from science.” (read more)

 Washington (CNN) – “President Joe Biden’s team shut down a closely-held State Department effort launched late in the Trump administration to prove the coronavirus originated in a Chinese lab over concerns about the quality of its work, according to three sources familiar with the decision.

The existence of the State Department inquiry and its termination this spring by the Biden administration — neither of which has been previously reported — comes to light amid renewed interest in whether the virus could have leaked out of a Wuhan lab with links to the Chinese military. The Biden administration is also facing scrutiny of its own efforts to determine if the Chinese government was responsible for the virus.

♦ “On Wednesday, Biden issued a statement that he has directed the US intelligence community to redouble its efforts in investigating the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic and report back to him in 90 days.” (LINK)

 [WASHINGTON DC] – The intelligence community failed to conclusively identify the origin of the coronavirus following a 90-day investigation ordered by President Biden, but experts are divided on why. 

A report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) found that officials were unable to rule whether the virus escaped from a lab or spread to humans through an infected animal.  But the ultimate conclusion reached by the $85 billion-a-year community was that it would be unable to pinpoint the origin of the virus if China didn’t fully cooperate.  (LINK)

end

end

From Chris Powell: the next two commentaries!

At least one Israeli doctor gets it

Inbox

Chris Powell1:25 PM (39 minutes ago)
to me

This is linked from Zero Hedge today.
https://swprs.org/professor-ehud-qimron-ministry-of-health-its-time-to-admit-failure/
cp

“Doomed To Fail” – Top Immunologist Blasts Global COVID Response Driven By “False Propaganda”

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 12:45 PMVia Swiss Policy Research,
Repeat COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Shots Trigger Regulator Warning About Immune-System Risks

By Mimi Nguyen Ly
The Epoch Times, New York
Wednesday, January 12, 2021

https://www.theepochtimes.com/eus-drug-regulator-expresses-concerns-over-immune-response-with-current-approach-for-covid-19-vaccine-boosters_4207438.html

The European Union’s drug regulator expressed doubts about whether a second booster dose of the currently available COVID-19 vaccines would be a sustainable long-term approach.

Marco Cavaleri, the European Medicines Agency’s (EMA) head of vaccines strategy, told a media briefing, “There is an emergency discussion around the possibility of giving a second booster dose with the same vaccine currently in use. Data has not yet been generated to support this approach.”

He said later, “We would like to see this data before we can make any recommendation, but at the same time we are rather concerned about a strategy that [involves] repeated vaccinations within a short term.”

An additional booster shot “could be considered as part of a contingency plan,” but “repeated vaccinations within short intervals will not represent a sustainable long term strategy,” he said.

… Concerns Over Immune Response

When asked to expand on his statements, Cavaleri said that for a hypothetical approach of giving boosters frequently, such as every four months, “we will end up potentially having problems with immune response and immune response may end up not being as good as we would like it to be, so we should be careful in not overloading the immune system with repeated immunization.”

Continuous administration of boosters can also lead to fatigue in the population, he said, adding, “it will be much better to start thinking about an administration of boosters that is more spaced in time.”

The EMA is in conversation with vaccine developers in case there is a need to update the current vaccines, Cavaleri said, but noted that any change “would have to be coordinated globally.”

Meanwhile, more data on the impact of the new variant—in this case, Omicron—on vaccines and a better understanding of the evolution of the current wave were needed to decide whether an Omicron-specific vaccine was needed.

“While a monovalent Omicron vaccine would represent an obvious candidate to be investigated, other options such as a multivalent vaccine cannot be ruled out as potential alternatives,” Cavaleri said.

… A Strategy to ‘Anticipate the Next Move’

“It is important that there is a good discussion around the choice of the composition of the vaccine to make sure that we have a strategy that is not just reactive after the virus changes, but try to anticipate what could be the next move, and try to come up with an approach that will be suitable in order to prevent a future variant that, in any case, will emerge,” Cavaleri said.

The EMA has called for a meeting with global regulators on Wednesday, which will include officials from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

“Tomorrow we will be looking at all the evidence that we have so far with the current vaccine, so the extent by which they are still providing vaccine effectiveness and whether indeed we should still think that giving a booster shot at this point in time is the best strategy,” Cavaleri said.

He added that the World Health Organization (WHO) “will play a critical role” in decision-making.

Cavaleri noted that the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, which causes COVID-19, “is still behaving as a pandemic virus, and the Omicron emergency is currently showing that.”

“So we should not forget we are still in a pandemic. Nevertheless, with increase of immunity in the population and with Omicron there will be a lot of natural immunity taking place on top of vaccination, we will be vastly moving toward a scenario that will be closer to endemicity,” he said.

Separately, he noted, “Ideally, if you want to move toward a scenario of endemicity, then such boosters should be synchronized with the arrival of the cold seasons in each of the hemispheres, similarly to what we’re doing with influenza vaccines.”

… Pfizer Looking at Omicron-Targeted Vaccine

On Monday, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said a COVID-19 vaccine that specifically targets the Omicron variant of the virus as well as already circulating variants “will be ready in March,” adding that the company is “already starting manufacturing some of these quantities at risk.”

Bourla said Pfizer is ready to file for U.S. regulatory approval for the redesigned COVID-19 vaccine, and that the company has built up ample manufacturing capacity, such that it will not be a problem to switch immediately. He also noted on Monday that COVID-19 vaccines eventually could be an annual shot for most people, and some high-risk groups might be eligible to receive the shots more often than that.

On Tuesday, Cavaleri said that April or May would be the soonest the EMA could approve any variant-targeted vaccine.

“In terms of the switch of the manufacturing, this is a decision that is beyond EMA and it will be very important there is a global discussion around the best option here in the interest of public health,” he commented.

-END-

Statistical Analysis on 145 countries (results): more harm than healing

Inbox

Neil Alho1:26 PM (26 minutes ago)
to bcc: me

Hi,This is a very technical / statistical analysis of publicly available data (and pretty tough slogging through it…)
https://vector-news.github.io/editorials/CausalAnalysisReport_html.html

Near the bottom, the author makes this statement:
…these results suggest that COVID-19 vaccine administration as a public policy over 80% of the time does not have a statistically significant causal impact of lowering total deaths or cases per million, but rather a statistically significant impact in increasing total deaths or cases per million associated with COVID-19 over and above what would have been expected if no vaccines were ever administered…
I particularly like a (14th century) quote that is included at the end of the Abstract part of the study:
Untruth naturally afflicts historical information. There are various reasons that make this unavoidable. One of them is partisanship for opinions and schools. If the soul is impartial in receiving information, it devotes to that information the share of critical investigation the information deserves, and its truth or untruth thus becomes clear. However, if the soul is infected with partisanship for a particular opinion or sect, it accepts without a moment’s hesitation the information that is agreeable to it. Prejudice and partisanship obscure the critical faculty and preclude critical investigation. The result is that falsehoods are accepted and transmitted (Muhammad ibn Khaldun al-Hadrami 1379, 1–2).
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VACCINE INDUCED HEART ATTACKS SPREADING TO THE UN-VACCINATED DUE TO SPIKE PROTEIN SHEDDING…

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:16 AM (1 hour ago)
to

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VACCINE IMPACT


2021: COVID Deaths Increase, Flu Deaths Disappear, 400,000+ More Total Deaths than 2020January 11, 2022 5:50 pmAt the end of 2020, we reported how the CDC was caught manipulating the death statistics to make “COVID deaths” appear to be much higher than they actually were. In November of 2020, we published an article showing that based on the CDC’s own statistics from January through September of 2020, the total projected deaths for the year were on pace to be about the same as the previous three years, 2017 – 2019. On February 3, 2021, we published an article highlighting a study published in the journal Science, Public Health Policy & the Law that claimed the CDC violated federal law by inflating COVID-19 fatality statistics. In that same article, we published a screenshot of a page that existed on the CDC website on December 30, 2020 that showed the total deaths in the U.S.  from all causes as of December 30, 2020, as being 2,902,664 deaths. Just after the first of the year in 2021, however, this page disappeared from the CDC website, and an entirely new section was put up on the CDC’s website that tracked deaths, and the total deaths for 2020 were revised to be 3,389,094, a difference of 486,430 deaths. Now, one year later, it appears that those additional deaths attributed to 2020 were basically being pre-added to cover up the deaths that were going to be caused by the experimental COVID-19 “vaccines” for 2021. Did over 400,000 people die in 2021 after being injected with an experimental COVID-19 shot?Read More…

GLOBAL STORIES/

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Michael Every with today’s most important topics

Michael Every.//

Rabobank: War… And inflation… And Rate Hikes?

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 10:45 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Of Mice and Men, Cheese and Monkeys

In 2020, I returned from my winter break to find markets were saying “Keep Calm and Carry On” about a virus in China with no human-to-human transmission: “World War Z!” was my response. In 2022, I return from my winter break to hopes the virus is becoming endemic due to the far more infectious but far milder Omicron variant. If so, it’s most likely zoonotic transmission was responsible rather than anything mankind has done: that is to say *if* we can return to normal soon, it will be because of mice, not men. Take the win, but be humble it is the subject of experiments, rather than those in white coats doing them, who may prove the source of salvation.

Back in 2020, I also returned to find markets in hysterics about the US assassination of Iranian hardman Soleimani: “Keep Calm and Carry On!” was my response. In 2022, markets are saying “Keep Calm and Carry On!” about US-Russia hardman tensions: yet war is a fat tail risk in my eyes. Talks Monday produced no results, as Russia’s demands to rewrite Europe’s security architecture to give it a sphere of influence were rejected; further Russian equipment is still moving west from its Far East; the Pentagon says it is monitoring the potential roll out of tactical nuclear weapons(!); Moscow blames a failed “color revolution” for the unrest in Kazakhstan rather than internal politics, framing how the Kremlin may respond elsewhere; and The Guardian’s lead story Tuesday had the same picture of what a Russian offensive may achieve as the worst-case scenario we put forward last April (a bifurcation of Ukraine). We will shortly see another key meeting between Russia and NATO members, but Russia says it isn’t “optimistic” about the outcome.

Notably, except to most Europeans, the EU just suffered the ignominy of having its existential security discussed right over its head by a Great Power it ignores except when selling it cars or taking its gas or oligarchs, and the US Superpower it chaffed at even pre-Trump. Europe was like a child during a divorce, with key decisions being made about its future environment while it plays with “strategic autonomy”. But that’s what you get from impotent, austere, pacifist mercantilism based on the assumption that if the only thing you have isn’t a hammer, then nothing around you can ever be a nail; if Germany drives EU foreign policy, and German exporters drive German foreign policy; if Europe morphs from what The National Review once sneered at as “Cheese-eating surrender monkeys” to the even weaker “Cheese-selling surrender monkeys” reliant on external demand for growth; if Berlin opts for cheap Russian over US gas, which is the only thing stopping the EU from facing insane energy prices right now; and if Lithuania is deleted from China’s trade database over a political spat, and German firms threaten to remove supply chains from a fellow EU member rather than China in response.

As a related aside, yesterday saw new German Economy Minister Habeck say “we will need immigration to address labor shortages” – after the recent election, not before it, naturally. This translates as “we need to keep wage inflation down,” despite the ECB not seeing any sustained sign of it, and implies saving more than is spent, producing more than is consumed, and exporting more than is imported….and then letting everyone else borrow more to do so while tut-tutting at their spendthrift ways. Some see it as a wirtschaftswunder; some as a wirtschafts-blunder; some as Käseverkaufende Kapitulationsaffen. We are talking about the clash between leaders who think only of the world of MICE (e.g., meetings, incentives, conventions, and exhibitions), and those who think of men (in uniform).

But it isn’t just the EU showing schoolboy/think tank/economist naïveté. The White House displayed the same in the recent UN Security Council declaration that “A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” Speaking as someone who, as a child, was dragged to Greenham Common CND marches against the US nukes that helped win the Cold War, let me agree that nuclear war should not be fought. However, if you take nuclear weapons off the table as the country with nuclear superiority then you either eliminate the risk of war entirely —which frenetic rearmament around the world says surprisingly isn’t happening— or you hand the initiative on conventional arms to potential enemies on the other side of the world, and more so given supply snarls are so snarled nothing can get from A to B, even in a war. I won’t quote Vegetius again, but if you don’t know what I mean, start asking yourself if you’d rather live with Uncle Sam or Mother Russia.

Yes, with both US and Australian store shelves looking like 1980’s Soviet or 2020’s British ones (are they both doing Brexit now too?), the West isn’t ready for a war. But that’s the whole point for the other side. (“I say, old chap! This war thing. Can we rearrange it to later next year? It’s awfully inconvenient at the moment, you know. Supply chains and all that, you see.”) Yes, Moscow has a moderate GDP at best with a terrible demographic trajectory, and Russian oligarchs enjoy living in London and New York. Yet oligarchs don’t make foreign policy, Putin does – and he doesn’t like their capital flight, and is taking a far bigger picture view…or just likes expensively playing soldier.

Does a US that won’t fight in Europe and a Europe that can’t fight anywhere scare a Russia that can? Equally, does the threat of US financial sanctions deter Putin when they have not stopped anyone to date and would splinter the global economy, as China would surely not comply, and Europe couldn’t? These also seem a ‘nuclear weapon’ the US is unlikely to use. As such, the likely costs for Moscow are perhaps lower than the potential gains from acting on its comparative advantage —military, food, and energy— to ensure a permanent sphere of influence. In short:

  • If the West blinks –and the US Secretary of State is literally Blinken– it dismantles the global security architecture and emboldens “revisionist powers” everywhere.
  • If Moscow blinks, the status quo limps along to the next pushback from one of the “revisionists”, and we see if the EU and White House learn any lessons in the meantime.
  • If nobody blinks, your 2022 forecasts are already wrong. We are back to the geopolitics of the 1930’s on WW2’s starting line, and WW1’s too if this spills over into Bosnia with Russian help. (Note the deepening US military presence in Albania.)

Yes, recent wars have only happened to poor people far away who can’t fight back, but the fat tail risks of poor people not so far way being hit are of massive volatility in FX, stocks, bond yields, energy, wheat, aluminium, and potash, which means food prices most everywhere. Crucially, these are *not* too awful to materialize, just as Covid wasn’t. Yet if we are determined to avoid them regardless, then strategic studies experts argue the only logical routes are giving Russia (and others) what they want, which is destabilising, or pushing back aggressively, which is destabilising. On which cheery note, today also sees US inflation, which might have ended 2021 over 7% y/y. Who saw that coming?

Not the economy, as the NFIB survey just showed 22% of US small firms saying inflation is their main problem, up from 1% this time last year.

Not the Fed, where Powell now says inflation will stay high until mid-2022. Wasn’t it mid-2021 this time last year? Is this ‘modelling’ based on an understanding of supply chains, as shipping backlogs at LA/LB port hit record highs, and China shuts down again due to Omicron? Philip Marey’s take is here, with a teaser being: “Powell did his best to come across as an inflation hawk, as did his colleagues in the FOMC in recent days in various speeches and interviews. They squeaked like good little hawks, although looking at the data this is completely incredible.”

Not Wall Street, whose markets don’t fear bombs but are now terrified of looming Fed rate hikes. “Powell Makes Case for Fed Curbing Inflation While Doing No Harm” says Bloomberg soothingly, quoting a man who got every key forecast wrong last year who is asking to keep his job while saying he will implement a policy that always ends badly for both the wealthy people offering it to him and the poor he pretends to also represent, albeit in different ways: “Russia Makes Case for Curbing Ukraine While Doing No Harm” in the same vein.

So, how many hikes this year? 2, 4, 5, 6? Pick a silly number from any one of the usual silly forecasters we have to listen to. And throw that many darts at your own bare feet to see the effect. The Fed will be wrong, as usual. The only question is how bad the damage is as a result.

Joining things up, could war in Europe mean the Fed delays rate hikes and market risk is ironically on again on this one metric alone? Traditionally, yes, on rates: especially if it is an expensive war against people who can actually fight back. However, when you consider the amount of fiscal spending that would have to flow, and what the price of energy and food would be, and the massive supply-chain disruption involved, the argument would probably still favor rate hikes.

So, war and inflation and rate hikes, even if no Covid? At least it means if we *only* get ruinous rate hikes, it’s an improvement! Who says I can’t ever see the upside of things?

Oppenheimer, co-creator of the nuclear bomb, on seeing it first detonated reportedly quoted from the Baghavad Gita: “Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.” His brother, with him at the time, says he actually heard him say, “Well, I guess it worked.” I very much hope somebody is going to be saying the latter about the contradictory mishmash of policies we are opting for, from monetary to fiscal to energy to health to defense.

But it takes real optimism given we are mostly led by mice, not men.

7. OIL ISSUES

“No One Wants To Be Short” – US NatGas Futures Erupt As Cold Sweeps East Coast

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 01:44 PM

U.S. natural gas futures jumped to levels not seen since early December amid a cold blast across the eastern U.S. and new threats of a winter storm over the weekend. 

Futures for February delivery soared 9.5% to $4.66 per million British thermal units, the highest price since Dec. 1. 

In a weather forecast Tuesday, we noted that some of the coldest air in years is pouring into parts of the U.S. Major metro areas across the East Coast are seeing frigid temperatures, which are boosting heating demand. 

Average temperatures in NYC are expected to be well below the 30-year average through the end of the month. 

Heating degree days for NYC will be above normal through the second half of the month — this means heating demand will soar. 

Dennis Kissler, a senior vice president at Bok Financial Securities Inc., told Bloomberg that the move in gas prices is “about short-covering and how much colder weather can get into January through February.” 

“Add in the tight supplies in Europe that may bleed over to Asia, and no one wants to be short,” Kissler said. 

“Front-month futures reached the highest seasonal price since 2010. Traders holding bearish positions are buying to close out their bets as the price crossed both the 200- and 50- day moving averages, which are bullish technical signals. The risk premium is being added back to winter gas prices, with the front-month contract advancing at almost twice the pace of April futures,” Bloomberg said. 

For the last several days, meteorologists at private weather forecasting firm BAMWX have been outlining the rising risks of another winter storm for the East Coast over the weekend. So far, models don’t show the exact track, timing is still vague, rain/snow line is still not determined, and heaviest snowfall regions have yet to be identified. 

On an international front, the spread between European gas and US gas is coming in after reaching a record high last month. The reason for the reversal is that US prices are soaring on freezing weather. Meanwhile, EU prices are slumping due to rising imports of LNG which is offsetting a slump in Russian pipeline supply. 

For more than a month, we’ve been tracking the increasing possibilities of a significant cold weather pattern in January that would “spark a bullish reversal” in gas. It appears that day has arrived as speculative buyers are also helping to drive the rally in gas higher. 

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

AUSTRALIAl

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1361 UP .0005 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN  

USA/ YEN 115.43  UP  0.097 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3636  UP   0.0004

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 29.99 OR 0.84%

  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 663,11 PTS OR 2.79%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .67%   // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I)EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN   

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED UP 663.11 OR  2.79%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 29.99  PTS OR 0.84%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .67%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 543.18 PTS OR 1.92%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1818.50

silver:$22.77-

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.61  DOWN 1  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.57% DOWN 3  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.129% DOWN 2 AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.62%// DOWN 5   in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.26 DOWN 5    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 64 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO -0.055% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.32% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1428  UP .0062    or 62 basis points

USA/Japan: 114.73 DOWN 0.599 OR YEN UP 6  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3697 UP 64  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 75 pts to 1.2502

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED UP)..6.3588  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.3611

TURKISH LIRA:  13.34  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.129

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.731% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.027  DOWN 1 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.16  DOWN 52   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

  Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 53.01 PTS OR 0.71%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 58.97points or 0.37%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP  52.47 PTS OR  0.73% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 16.60PTS OR .19%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 146.55 PTS OR 0.53%

WTI Oil price 82,55    12: EST

Brent Oil:  84.88 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:   74.86 THE CROSS HIGHER BY  43 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 43 BASIS PTS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; -.055

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1447 UP  .0082 BASIS PTS  OR 82 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3708 UP .0076 or up 76 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 114.51 down .821

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2505 UP .0072 (cdn dollar up 72 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 82.65

Brent: 84.55

USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.737 down 1 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.082 up 1  pts.

USA dollar vs Turkish lira: 13,16

usa dollar vs Russian rouble: 74.72 down 29 basis pts.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 38.30 PTS OR 0.11%

NASDAQ 100 UP 60.97 OR 0.38%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.60 DOWN 0.81 PTS

GLD/NYSE CLOSING PRICE $170.74 UP $0.45 OR 0.26%

SLV/NYSE CLOSING PRICE: $21.45// UP $.40 OR 1.90%

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM:

Dollar Dumped After Soaring CPI, Crypto & Crude Jump

WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Hot CPI and hawkish FedSpeak were just too much for BTFDers to hold on to gains. Highest headline CPI in 39 years, 9th straight month of real wage loss, and Fed’s Bullard going full-hawktard…

  • *Fed’s Bullard: Four Rate Rises in 2022 Now Appear Likely –WSJ
  • *Bullard: 2021 Liquidity Can Be Removed With Likely Little Disruption –WSJ
  • *Bullard: Early Start to Rate Hikes May Avoid More Hawkish Rate Path –WSJ
  • *Bullard: March Rate Rise Is Very Likely Amid High Inflation –WSJ

…and everyone knows you never go full hawktard…

Small Caps underperformed today, but all the majors followed a similar track – rallying immediately on the CPI print, all dumping at the cash open, BTFD’ers piling in as Europe closed, then from around 2pm ET (margin calls?), things faded. Nasdaq was the best performer with the Dow holding on to unchanged and S&P small green…

For context, the S&P has rallied in the first 30 minutes after the release in 9 of the last 13 months on CPI day (with no co-movement link to whether it was a beat or a miss), but as the chart below shows, that initial surge has (on average) tended to normalize…

Source: Bloomberg

Also of note, today was the weakest dollar response on a CPI day since Feb 2018…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq bounced perfectly off its 200DMA, rallied all the way up to its 100DMA, then faded today…

Goldman’s Sentiment indicator is at the lowest level in 86 weeks… back to its worst since March 2020’s collapse…

The Dollar was monkeyhammered lower again today, tumbling to two-month lows and testing its 100DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

In bond-land, it was mixed today with the belly outperforming and the wings weakest (2Y and 30Y +2bps or so, 5-10Y -1bp)

Source: Bloomberg

But, things are changing, with 10Y yields down a couple of bp to 1.72% (and over 8bps off the 1.80% top we saw earlier this week).

Source: Bloomberg

Real Yields jumped higher on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman’s Chris Hussey suggests a myriad of factors may be behind a top forming in 10-year bond yields, including:

(1) a potential expectation that we will soon see a peak in US inflation (so the next trade is for easing pressures),

(2) the notion that several Fed funds rate hikes are already priced into markets, and

(3) the relative attractiveness of US yields relative to Europe and Japan (a factor that has been in the markets for years, putting a cap on long-term US yields).

Also today, we are seeing more signs that the latest virus wave may be close to a peak — an event that could provide some relief as supply chains reopen

Cryptos were also bid today with Bitcoin tagging $44k…

Source: Bloomberg

And Ethereum rallied up to $3400…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin’s correlation with global stocks has surged back to its highest since Oct 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was clubbed like a baby seal back into the red for the year…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold continued its rebound, nearing $1830 once again…

WTI surged ahead today, topping $83 for the first time since early Nov 2021…

NatGas surged higher today amid arb-demand from Europe and a sudden cold-weather front. The 13% jump is the biggest daily spike since Nov 2018…

Finally, given the major rebound in oil prices, Biden’s SPR-release improvement in the retail gas price is likely over…

And that will likely mean this chart moves lower…

Get back to work, Mr.Biden.

END

I)MORNING TRADING/AFTERNOON TRADING

II)USA DATA

US Consumer Prices Soar At Fastest In 39 Years, Real Wages Tumble For 9th Straight Month

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 08:36 AM

Consensus was convinced – with barely any outliers – that this morning’s consumer price index would print with an astonishing 7.0% YoY (and notably 7 of the last 9 releases have come in above consensus) and they nailed it with the 7% print at its highest since June 1982 (when ET was launched in the US)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the 19th straight monthly rise in headline CPI and Core CPI also surged to its highest since Feb 1991 (printing hotter than expected at +5.5% YoY)

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, commodities, shelter, and new-and-used cars and trucks saw prices jump the most. Energy actually saw a modest 0.4% retracement (that will not be the case in January)…

Source: Bloomberg

The cost of putting a roof over your head is accelerating once again. Shelter inflation rises to 4.13% Y/Y from 3.84%, the highest since Feb 2007…

In fact, while Services inflation rose to +3.7% – its highest since Jan 2007 – Goods inflation soared 10.7% YoY – its highest since May 1975…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, and perhaps most importantly for Main Street, real average hourly earnings fell (down 2.4% YoY) for the 9th straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

So the next time a politician tries to tell you to be grateful that your wages are going up or you can move to a new higher paying job, just remind him that the surge in the cost of living is outpacing wage gains, thanks to The Fed’s money-largesse and Congress’ lockdown policies and helicopter money have crushed the quality of life for millions.END

III) USA COVID UPDATES.

Chicago Mayor Lightfoot gets COVID.  She struck a deal with teachers to return to classrooms.

(zerohedge)

Chicago Mayor Gets COVID After Striking Deal With Teachers To Return To Classrooms

TUESDAY, JAN 11, 2022 – 08:45 PM

After a week-long shutdown, Chicago Public schoolteachers will finally return to their posts on Wednesday after reaching a deal with City Hall.

The shutdown, which had returned the nation’s third-largest school system to remote-only education after the Chicago Teachers Union voted to refuse to return to the classroom unless proper safety protocols were implemented. The shutdown has lasted almost exactly a week already.

Mayor Lori Lightfoot announced the deal with the Chicago Teachers Union on Monday that would return students to classrooms on Wednesday. The deal came after the Illinois House of Delegates voted to suspend the union’s remote action, which city hall had blasted as an illegal work stoppage.

“No one is more frustrated than I am,” Mayor Lightfoot said after the deal was reached. She added: “I’m glad that we’re hopefully putting this behind us and looking forward. But there does come a point when enough is enough.”

By the looks of it, the “anti-science” teachers union got most of what it wanted. The agreement includes metrics on when a classroom or a school should go remote, enhances testing, and increased contact tracing. The union has insisted the city didn’t do enough to provide enough testing and vaccination opportunities.

“I am not going to say anyone in our team feels this is a home run,” said CTU President Jesse Sharkey during a separate press conference. He added that the deal moves the union toward as much as it could get for now and its members worked hard without pay.

A resolution to the conflict came after the Biden administration urged Lightfoot and the union to reach a deal.

“The president’s been very clear, as we have been clear: We are on the side of schools being open,” White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said earlier on Monday, when asked about the standoff in Chicago.

This latest battle between city hall and the teachers follows the union’s longest strike since 1987 in 2019, which was ordered to demand higher pay as well as more nurses and social workers in schools. And in early 2021, the union’s caused a delayed and phased-in return to school as it battled with city hall for resources and demanded certain protocols for students.

“I’m hopeful that this is the end, at least for this school year,” Lightfoot said, adding that the agreement takes the district through the end of summer school. “I’m hopeful that we will have a stable, uneventful rest of the school year.”

But just as this problem ended, another has reared its head for Mayor Lightfoot: she tested positive for COVID on Tuesday, meaning it would have been pretty difficult to continue negotiations, anyway.

Of course, Lightfoot’s sickness is just the latest example of a ‘breakthrough’ infection.

end

From San Francisco…

Over-testing and over-quarantining in San Francisco

Amy Graff/SFGate

special thanks to Chris Powell for sending this to us:

Head of COVID response for UCSF’s ER dept.: ‘I have not intubated a single COVID patient during this Omicron surge’

Photo of Amy Graff

Amy Graff, SFGATEJan. 10, 2022Updated: Jan. 12, 2022 6:56 a.m.

The emergency entrance of UCSF Hellen Diller Medical Center Hospital in San Francisco on March 20, 2020.
The emergency entrance of UCSF Hellen Diller Medical Center Hospital in San Francisco on March 20, 2020. Douglas Zimmerman/SFGate

On Saturday, in response to hospitals begging for relief from a massive staffing crisis, the California Department of Public Health announced that most hospitals and skilled nursing facilities can bring COVID-positive and exposed staff back to work without testing or quarantines. The staffers must be asymptomatic, are required to wear N95 masks and are encouraged to work with patients who are already COVID-positive as much as possible. 

This news might come as a surprise to people who have been reading dire warnings about omicron and some public health officials’ pleas to cancel plans and stay home. Many public health officials have argued these measures are necessary to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed with COVID patients. Indeed, for the past few weeks, San Francisco hospitals have been in dire straits. But it’s not because people are sick — it’s because of staffing shortages driven by overly strict state quarantine rules, the director of COVID response at UCSF’s emergency department said.

After reviewing the charts of every COVID-positive patient at UCSF hospitals on Jan. 4, Dr. Jeanne Noble, an associate professor of emergency medicine at UCSF, determined that 70% of them were in the hospital for other reasons.

“The real COVID crisis that our hospitals are facing is a severe staffing shortage that is compromising the quality of our care,” Noble said Friday, shortly before the policy change was announced. 

Staffing shortages are so severe that California is considering canceling elective surgeries, as happened during the worst of last year’s peak.

“The crisis from the Omicron peak is not generated by serious COVID illness in regions with highly vaxxed populations,” Noble wrote in an email to SFGATE. “The crisis we are suffering in the Bay Area is largely driven by disruptive COVID policies that encourage asymptomatic testing and subsequent quarantines. … The vast majority of COVID-plus patients I take care of need no medical care and are quickly discharged home with reassurance.”

It’s true that case counts are shattering records set last year, and Noble predicts the peak is still a week away. But fewer people are hospitalized with COVID today in California compared with this time last year. And, especially in highly vaccinated areas, few of those patients are actually in the hospital because of COVID illness. In LA, where 71% of eligible people are fully vaccinated, two-thirds of hospital cases were caught on screening for the virus, the LA Times reported

Policies encouraging people to take a test whether or not they’re sick, and to stay home just because they were near someone who tested positive, may be doing little to slow the virus; in San Francisco, four times as many people are testing positive every day than at the peak of last year’s winter surge. But isolation policies have strained hospitalsshuttered restaurantsdisrupted public transportation, reduced capacity at testing sites and sent some kids back to virtual education, some experts say. Punishing quarantine measures have compounded already-existing staff shortages driven by large numbers of health care providers quitting in the past year. 

A woman wears a face mask walking down Chestnut Street in San Francisco on Jan. 4, 2022.
A woman wears a face mask walking down Chestnut Street in San Francisco on Jan. 4, 2022.Douglas Zimmerman/SFGATE

It’s not just health care workers who have recently received updated guidance. Both the California Department of Public Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently made quarantine requirements less punishing for everyone else, as well.

Now, if you test positive for COVID-19, both agencies ask that you isolate for five days, even if you have no symptoms. At the end of day five, the CDC says people with COVID can leave quarantine without taking a test, but ask that they wear a mask for another five days. In California, public health officials say people with COVID can end their isolation after five days, but only with a negative test. (Read SFGATE’s guide to the confusing quarantine guidelines.)

Over the weekend, the state Department of Public Health loosened guidance on COVID-19 isolation and testing for health care workers. Local health departments have the option to implement stricter procedures and follow prior guidance.

Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease expert and a professor of medicine at UCSF, thinks more changes to the quarantine requirements are coming.

“At some point – once the population and public health officials feel comfortable enough with their vaccination rates and the effectiveness of the vaccines- isolation protocols are likely to be shortened even further,” Gandhi wrote in an email.

Noble said that when she reviewed the charts on Jan. 4 at four UCSF campuses (UCSF Parnassus, Mission Bay, Mount Zion and Children’s Hospital of Oakland), she identified 44 hospitalized patients (both adults and children) with COVID. Of those, just 13 were admitted because of COVID. “I do not expect that number to increase substantially, or become unmanageable in the coming week,” she wrote. “The death rate in California is actually falling. And the predicted peak of cases is only about a week away.”

The remaining 31, or 70%, of patients tested positive after being admitted for unrelated reasons, including a hip fracture and a bowel obstruction. They’re all “completely asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic,” Noble said.

“[Emergency departments] are flooded with the worried well that are simply seeking testing and reassurance,” she added. “I have not intubated a single COVID patient during this Omicron surge. We have a total of 5 patients with COVID on ventilators across our 4 hospitals. An average of 1.25 intubated COVID patients per hospital is a good news story.”

For most of the pandemic, public health officials have used the number of COVID patients in hospitals as a key metric for determining how an area is faring with the virus. They use that number when determining whether to tighten or loosen restrictions, including school closures and mask mandates.

The hospitalization number now has new meaning, according to several experts who spoke with SFGATE. The majority of people in the Bay Area are vaccinated, and huge numbers of unvaccinated people have already been infected over the past two years, which confers significant protection against severe disease. In addition, 79% of cases in California are now caused by the omicron variant, which causes more mild illness than previous strains of the virus. A study from the U.K. Health Security Agency found people who contracted the omicron variant were about half as likely to need hospital care as those who contracted the delta variant. 

Last week, the U.S.’s top health official Dr. Anthony Fauci said that “it is much more relevant to focus on the hospitalizations as opposed to the total number of cases.”

But some experts think we need even more nuance than that, taking into account the number of people who happen to have (or catch) COVID while in the hospital for something else, as well as local immunization rates. While omicron appears to be kinder to unvaccinated people than delta, anyone without prior immunity is still at significant risk of severe illness and death. People who are immunocompromised and elderly people are especially vulnerable to COVID-19, and that’s why the CDC highly recommends that they get vaccinated and boosted.

end’

Fauci Was Told Privately by Key Scientists That COVID-19 Natural Origin Was ‘Highly Unlikely,’ Newly Unredacted Emails Confirm

Inbox

Robert Hryniak12:11 PM (10 minutes ago)
to

This guy has a lot to explain. Why anyone listens to him is a mystery.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_morningbrief/fauci-was-told-privately-by-key-scientists-that-natural-origin-was-highly-unlikely-newly-unredacted-emails-confirm_4207003.html

end

Twitters bans Project Veritas within minutes of exposing Fauci’s crimes

(special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us)

Twitter BANS Project Veritas within Minutes of Exposing Fauci’s Crimes – Mags Punch

Inbox

Robert Hryniak6:27 PM (29 minutes ago)
to

What free speech ?

iii) important USA economic stories for you tonight

What a nutcase:  Biden’s education secretary requested “domestic terrorism” to be persued against parents.

(Pan/EpochTimes)

Biden’s Education Secretary Allegedly Requested ‘Domestic Terrorism’ Letter From School Boards Group

 TUESDAY, JAN 11, 2022 – 07:25 PM

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Newly surfaced emails suggest that the U.S. Department of Education might have played a more important role than previously thought in the creation of a highly controversial letter, which likened concerned parents to domestic terrorists.Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona answers questions during the daily briefing at the White House on Aug. 5, 2021. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

In a letter (pdf) sent to President Joe Biden on Sept. 29, 2021, the National School Boards Association (NSBA) characterized disruptions at school board meetings as “a form of domestic terrorism and hate crime.” The organization also urged the federal government to invoke counterterrorism laws to quell “angry mobs” of parents seeking to hold school officials accountable for teaching Marxist critical race theory and for imposing COVID-19 restrictions such as mask mandates on their children.

Just five days later, on Oct. 5, U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland issued a memo directing federal law enforcement to help address an alleged “disturbing spike in harassment, intimidation, and threats of violence” against teachers and school leaders. The memo remains in effect, despite the NSBA having since apologized for and rescinded the letter.

According to email exchanges obtained by advocacy group Parents Defending Education (PDE), the NSBA letter appears to be a response to a request for information by U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona.

On Oct. 5, NSBA board member Marnie Maldonado sent an email (pdf) to fellow board member Kristi Swett, asking her whether the NSBA had gone through all the correct procedures before sending the letter to Biden.

I am very concerned about the process by which the statement was made and the tone that essentially allowed the White House to direct the Attorney General to consider members of our community ‘domestic terrorists,’” Maldonado wrote, adding that she wanted the NSBA “to focus on civility.”

In response, Swett said she agreed that there were “communication issues” within the NSBA. She also mentioned that Chip Slaven, then-interim director of the NSBA, “told officers he was writing a letter to provide information to the White House, from a request by Secretary Cordona [sic].”

In an interview with Fox News, PDE President Nicole Neily indicated that the letter Cardona allegedly requested and the “domestic terrorism” letter are the same thing.

“Should this allegation be true, it would reveal that this administration’s pretextual war on parents came from the highest levels,” Neily told Fox News.

“Attorney General Merrick Garland unequivocally stated that he based his memo on the NSBA’s letter—which in turn mobilized the FBI and U.S. attorneys,” she said. “If Secretary Cardona was truly involved in this ugly episode, it is a significant breach of public trust, and he should be held accountable.”

The new information comes amid questions over the Biden administration’s involvement in the creation of the NSBA letter, which still serves as the basis of a series of actions taken by the Justice Department.

According to internal files leaked to Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the top Republican on the House Judiciary Committee, the FBI’s Criminal Investigative Division has created a new “threat tag” titled “EDUOFFICIALS,” and directed agents to apply the tag to all “investigations and assessments of threats” relating to school boards.

“This disclosure provides specific evidence that federal law enforcement operationalized counterterrorism tools at the behest of a left-wing special interest group against concerned parents,” Jordan said in a letter to Garland. “The FBI’s actions were an entirely foreseeable—and perhaps intended—result of your October 4 memorandum.”

end

USA occupancy hits record highs after a huge COVID fueld migration

(zerohedge)

US Apartment Occupancy Hits Record High After COVID-Fueled Migration 

 TUESDAY, JAN 11, 2022 – 10:25 PM

New data from property management software company RealPage shows apartment occupancy in the US surged to a record high in December. High occupancy rates come as renters were lured in with pandemic discounts in late 2020 and 2021 as others fled metro areas for a new life in the suburbs. 

RealPage said 97.5% of the professionally managed apartments in the US last month were occupied, the highest on record. The figure is two percentage points higher than the occupancy rate in December 2020. Just a few percentage points equate to hundreds of thousands of households. 

“I don’t think most people realize just how crazy that is,” Jay Parsons, deputy chief economist for RealPage, told Bloomberg

“Not only is that a record, typically we consider 95 to 96% to be essentially full,” Parsons said.

In the first year of the virus pandemic, apartment rents plunged as residents fled metro areas, such as ones in New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Operators of apartment buildings panicked during the pandemic when tenants broke their leases and escaped cities due to lockdowns and soaring violent crime. As rents fell, operators began to offer substantial discounts to new tenants. The deals lured in new renters in 2021, resulting in soaring rent prices throughout the year. 

Most new tenants are locked into a multi-year lease and have no intention of moving. Another issue for renters is the low housing supply, and surging prices have kept them on the sidelines. Prices are expected to continue rising in 2022. 

In a separate report, Pew Research Center found rental homes and apartments across the country are experiencing the lowest vacancy rates in four decades. Despite the Covid-fueled migration patterns, a record low number of households moved between March 2020 and March 2021 because of low housing inventory. 

“Rents are rising, and the discounts and concessions of 2020 are likely a thing of the past. Moreover, demand for housing continues to outpace the supply,” Bloomberg said. END


iii)b USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//

“It’s Like A Soviet Store”: Americans Are Absolutely Horrified By Empty Shelves From Coast To Coast

Inbox

Robert Hryniak9:52 AM (1 minute ago)
to

A North American continental phenomenon brought on by government foolishness and indifference.
Starting on the 15th of January watch what happens as unvaccinated truckers do not deliver fresh fruits and vegetables to Canada via America. Non deliveries to Canada should produce greater abundance in American supermarkets.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/its-like-a-soviet-store-americans-are-absolutely-horrified-by-empty-shelves-from-coast-to-coast/

END

iv)swamp stories

What took them so long to figure out he is a lousy President

(zerohedge)

Biden Job Approval Plummets To 33% As Majority Think US Democracy ‘In Danger Of Collapse’

WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 03:11 PM

President Joe Biden’s approval rating has hit an all-time low in Quinnipiac’s latest poll – which has the oldest US president at just 33%, while 53% of those polled disapprove.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1481345993320939525&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fbiden-job-approval-plummets-33-majority-think-us-democracy-danger-collapse&sessionId=68296290bfe9863371980643088ffa25ae322203&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=86e9194f%3A1641882287124&width=550px

The poll also revealed that: 

  • A majority of Americans, 58 – 37 percent, think the nation’s democracy is in danger of collapse.
  • Republicans say 62 – 36 percent, independents say 57 – 39 percent, and Democrats say 56 – 37 percent they think the nation’s democracy is in danger of collapse.
  • Just over half of Americans (53 percent) expect political divisions in the country to worsen over their lifetime, 28 percent expect them to remain about the same, and 15 percent expect them to ease.
  • 59-33% say Trump should NOT run for president
  • 57-34% say there WASN’T widespread voter fraud in 2020
  • 70% say the economy is ‘not so good,’ or ‘poor’ (35% and 35%)

Meanwhile, 50% of those polled think the January 6th Capitol riot was an attack on Democracy that should never be forgotten, while 44% say people are making too big a deal out of it, and it’s time to move on.

This is down from an August poll when 57% said it should never be forgotten, and 38% were ready to move on.

As far as Trump’s responsibility in J6: 43% say he bears a lot of responsibility, 18% say he bears some responsibility, 16% say ‘not much’ and 20% say none at all.

Comparing Trump and Biden, Trump’s average lowest job approval was 37%, while Biden’s is hanging out at 41.9%.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1481353529277177862&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fbiden-job-approval-plummets-33-majority-think-us-democracy-danger-collapse&sessionId=68296290bfe9863371980643088ffa25ae322203&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=86e9194f%3A1641882287124&width=550px

(end)

Are You A “Terrorist”? Take This 50 Question Quiz And Find Out!


WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 12:22 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Could you be the kind of person that the government is looking for?  The U.S. Justice Department has just announced that it will be creating a brand new unit “to counter domestic terrorism”, and they are going to need something to show for all of the time, money and energy that they are going to be putting into this new project.  You may be tempted to think that they will be going after the people that have rioted and burned buildings hundreds of times all across this nation over the past couple of years, but that simply is not going to happen.  Instead, they are telling us that this new unit will specifically target “extremist anti-government and anti-authority ideologies”.  So if you have been critical of the Biden administration, any of our government agencies, or any of our top public health officials, you could be in really big trouble.

To help you out, I have created a 50 question quiz to help you determine if you are a “terrorist”.  Most of these questions are based on statements made by Biden administration officials or on specific government documents that have been publicly revealed.

So are you ready?

Here we go.  For each of the following questions, answer either “yes” or “no”…

#1 Do you ever criticize the government?

#2 Have you ever been banned, shadowbanned or censored on social media for a political opinion that you expressed?

#3 Are you a parent?

#4 Do you attend school board meetings?

#5 Have you ever expressed concern about the education of your children at a school board meeting?

#6 Do you believe in “conspiracy theories”?

#7 Are you suspicious of the FBI?

#8 Do you know who Ray Epps is?

#9 Do you wonder why Ray Epps has never been arrested?

#10 Are you unvaccinated?

#11 Have you ever questioned the efficacy of the COVID vaccines?

#12 Do you have a negative opinion of Dr. Fauci?

#13 Would you consider yourself to be a “constitutionalist”?

#14 Do you believe in “individual liberties”?

#15 Do you know what the 10th Amendment says?

#16 Have you ever referred to anyone in the Democratic Party as a “communist”?

#17 Have you ever referred to any public official as a “globalist”?

#18 Do you know what the “Great Reset” is?

#19 Would you consider yourself to be an opponent of the LGBT agenda?

#20 Have you ever said anything on social media that was critical of illegal immigration?

#21 Have you ever referred to yourself as a “patriot”?

#22 Have you ever used the wrong pronouns when addressing a member of the trans community?

#23 Do you believe that global leaders are conspiring to create a “New World Order”?

#24 Are you a “climate denier”?

#25 Are you opposed to Agenda 21?

#26 Have you ever belonged to a militia group?

#27 Are you worried about “gun control”?

#28 Are you ever critical of the IRS?

#29 Do you ever visit “extremist websites”?

#30 Have you ever attended rallies that promote “extremist causes”?

#31 Do you have “right-wing bumper stickers” on your vehicle?

#32 Would you consider yourself to be a “nationalist”?

#33 Do you believe that your “way of life” is under attack?

#34 Would you consider yourself to be an opponent of Critical Race Theory?

#35 Are you a “prepper”?

#36 Have you ever had any “survivalist training”?

#37 Would you consider yourself to be a “fundamentalist”?

#38 Do you believe that religion should influence politics?

#39 Are you “anti-abortion”?

#40 Are you a military veteran?

#41 Do you believe in a “right to bear arms”?

#42 Have you been involved in stockpiling ammunition?

#43 Have you ever protested at an abortion clinic?

#44 Do you have a negative opinion of the United Nations?

#45 Would you consider yourself to be an evangelical Christian?

#46 Do you ever have questions about the legitimacy of our elections?

#47 Have you lost faith in public health officials?

#48 Are you resentful when you are ordered to wear a mask?

#49 Have you ever said anything negative about the big pharmaceutical companies?

#50 Are you opposed to vaccine mandates?

If you answered yes to none of these questions, you are exactly the kind of citizen that the federal government wants and you have absolutely nothing to worry about.

If you answered yes to between one and ten of these questions, you have some anti-government tendencies but if you start watching CNN a lot more you can still probably turn things around.

If you answered yes to between eleven and thirty of these questions, you are clearly a “troublemaker” and you may be on your way to becoming a terrorist.  You are going to need to watch endless hours of MSNBC and playing glowing documentaries about Dr. Fauci over and over again will be very helpful as well.

If you answered yes to between thirty-one and fifty of these questions, there is no hope.  You are clearly a terrorist and the government is eventually going to be coming for you.

In fact, they are already holding exercises that simulate what it will be like to confront “extremists”.  The following is just one example

A “realistic” guerrilla war will be fought across two dozen North Carolina counties in the coming weeks, with young soldiers battling seasoned “freedom fighters,” according to the U.S. Army.

According to MSN News, The two-week “unconventional warfare exercise” will be staged from Jan. 22-Feb. 4 on privately owned land. And it will be realistic enough to include the sounds of gunfire (blanks) and flares, the U.S. Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School said in a news release.

Exact times, locations, and exercise specifics were not provided. However, advance publicity is intended to make sure civilians — including law enforcement officers — don’t mistake the fighting for terrorism or criminal activity, which has happened in the past.

Let me be serious for a moment.

I find all of this to be extremely sad.

We should be finding ways to come together as a nation, but instead the Biden administration just keeps finding ways to make our divisions even deeper.

A house divided will surely fall, and I am deeply concerned about the future of our country.

If we don’t find a way to unite as a nation, we simply are not going to make it.

Unfortunately, our leaders in Washington and the mainstream media just continue to stir up more anger and more hate, and that is a recipe for national suicide.

*  *  *

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

US stocks and ESHs sank early on Tuesday; but Powell rescued stocks with dovish braying at his Senate confirmation hearing.  The daffy Fed Chair said the Fed has not yet considered shrinking its balance sheet and it will take 2 to 4 meetings to debate the issue. 
 
Most importantly to the stock market, Jerry indicated that inflation is not now a problem!!!!
 
If we see inflation persisting at higher levels, longer than expected, if we have to raise interest rates more over time, then we will”.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell-confirmation-hearing-2022-162243459.html
 
Fed’s Powell vows to stop inflation from becoming entrenched.
https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-powell-pledges-prevent-inflation-becoming-entrenched-2022-01-10/
 
Jerome also stated that the job market is weaker than the Fed likes.
 
We want participation to come back, but it’s been quite slow,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell says about people in the workforce. “It probably will take a long expansion to draw people back into the labor market.” https://t.co/3UYjLlvx54
 
Dimon refuted Powell: Jamie Dimon Sees ‘Huge Pressure’ on Wages for First Time in His Life https://t.co/dYPzpQ5dqd
 
Powell threw a bone to the bond market and Fed hawks: “Inflation is running very far above our target and… that’s telling us… the economy no longer needs or wants the very accommodative policies we’ve had in place to deal with the pandemic and the aftermath,” Fed Chair Powell says. “It’s a long road to normal from where we are.” https://t.co/1n0aykC6uO
 
Fed Chorus for March Hike Grows as Mester, Bostic Add Support
Two Federal Reserve officials backed raising interest rates as soon as March and a third (George) urged that the central bank begin winding down its bloated balance sheet sooner rather than later
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11/fed-s-george-urges-shrinking-balance-sheet-early-to-cut-stimulus

Military Documents About Gain of Function Contradict Fauci Testimony Under Oath
Military documents state that EcoHealth Alliance approached DARPA in March 2018 seeking funding to conduct gain of function research of bat borne coronaviruses. The proposal, named Project Defuse, was rejected by DARPA over safety concerns and the notion that it violates the gain of function research moratorium…“The proposal does not mention or assess potential risks of Gain of Function (GoF) research,” a direct quote from the DARPA rejection letter…
    Project Veritas reached out to DARPA for comment regarding the hidden documents and spoke with the Chief of Communications, Jared Adams, who said, “It doesn’t sound normal to me,” when asked about the way the documents were buried…
https://www.projectveritas.com/news/military-documents-about-gain-of-function-contradict-fauci-testimony-under/
 
New documents reveal early beliefs that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered
And how debate was shut-down to protect “science”
    Congressional Republicans released e-mails revealing scientists and researchers – people who are certainly not conspiracy theorists – informing Fauci and Collins of their beliefs that the virus was man-made…Regarding the same February 1, 2020 phone conference, notes… state that experts needed to be convened to support the theory of “natural origin” or the “voices of conspiracy will quickly dominate, doing great harm to science and international harmony…” There was no concern for actually getting to the truth… https://technofog.substack.com/p/new-documents-reveal-early-beliefs
 
@MichaelPSenger: CNN: “The CDC has turned into a punch line. It is so sad but it’s true. The CDC has turned into a punch line…and the answer is yes, there’s a huge credibility crisis for the CDC.”  It’s official—they’re in the CYA and blame-shifting stage now. This could get ugly.
https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/1480590891924393987
 
‘The View’ Host Sunny Hostin Loses Faith in Latest CDC Guidelines
https://www.toddstarnes.com/media/the-view-host-sunny-hostin-loses-faith-in-latest-cdc-guidelines/
 
Medical Experts Reveal the Scientific Reason Why Covid Vaccines Cannot ‘Stop the Spread’ or Prevent Infection – “A fundamental mistake underlying the development of the COVID-19 vaccines was to neglect the functional distinction between the two major categories of antibodies which the body produces in order to protect itself from pathogenic microbes,” the doctors note…
   “Vaccines that are injected into the muscle – i.e., the interior of the body – will only induce IgG and circulating IgA, not secretory IgA. Such antibodies cannot and will not effectively protect the mucous membranes from infection by SARS-CoV-2,” the article continues. “Thus, the currently observed ‘breakthrough infections’ among vaccinated individuals merely confirm the fundamental design flaws of the vaccines.”…
https://beckernews.com/medical-experts-reveal-the-scientific-reason-why-covid-vaccines-cannot-stop-the-spread-or-prevent-infection-43621/
 
Head of COVID response at UCSF: ‘I have not intubated a single COVID patient during this Omicron surge’ –After reviewing the charts of every COVID-positive patient at UCSF hospitals on Jan. 4, Dr. Jeanne Noble, an associate professor of emergency medicine at UCSF, determined that 70% of them were in the hospital for other reasons… “The real COVID crisis that our hospitals are facing is a severe staffing shortage that is compromising the quality of our care,” Noble said…
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/COVID-San-Francisco-staff-shortage-UCSF-16758335.php
 
@kylenabecker: Did you know CDC estimates its Covid-related mortality rates based on a MODEL? That’s right. “COVID-19 deaths are estimated using a statistical model… [even deaths] never reported as a death related to COVID-19.” Any death they couldn’t explain was a “Covid-related death.” https://t.co/XywYHlkPci
 
Fauci, Paul clash over accusations of ‘cheap politics’ regarding alleged ‘takedown’ of other scientists – The Kentucky senator accused Fauci of conspiring with the former NIH director to discredit doctors who disagreed with them – “In an email exchange with Dr. [Francis] Collins, you conspire, and I quote here directly from the email, to ‘create a quick and devastating published takedown’ of three prominent epidemiologists from Harvard, Oxford and Stanford,” Paul said…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fauci-paul-clash-accusations-alleged-takedown-disagreeing-scientists?test=aedaf50575f19da86e2e168307f2faa4
 
‘What a moron. Jesus Christ’: Fauci is caught on hot mic attacking Senator Marshall https://trib.al/t9wwhCK
 
@robbystarbuck: Fauci just called Senator Roger Marshall a moron because he disagreed with Fauci and said “Jesus Christ” in a derogatory way. This little tyrant can’t keep his cool if anyone questions him. Sen. Marshall is a doctor and Army Veteran!
 
Ivermectin ‘Works Throughout All Phases’ Of COVID According to Leaked Military Documents
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/hidden-military-documents-reveal-nih-intent-create-sars-cov-2-using-gain-function-research
 
If you want to know who controls you, look at who you are not allowed to criticize.” — Voltaire
 
@DrEliDavid: “Pfizer CEO says omicron vaccine will be ready in March.” Its main benefits will be:
Reduction of Omicron mortality from almost zero to almost zero; Billions of dollars of recurring revenue for Pfizer
 
Education Secretary Cardona solicited NSBA letter comparing protesting parents to domestic terrorists: email – NSBA official said controversial letter followed ‘a request by Secretary Cardona’
     Education Secretary Miguel Cardona solicited the much-criticized letter from the National School Boards Association that compared protesting parents to domestic terrorists, according to an email exchange reviewed by Fox News. The email exchange indicates Cardona was more involved with the letter’s creation than previously known… (AG Garland apparently lied to Congress about the letter!)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/education-secretary-cardona-solicited-nsba-letter-comparing-parents-domestic-terrorists-email
 
Education Secretary Cardona facing calls to resign after email shows he solicited controversial NSBA letter   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/education-secretary-cardona-resign-nsba-letter
 
@bhweingarten: FBI’s Jill Sanborn will not answer Sen. Cruz’s questions about FBI informants’ involvement in Jan. 6. Cruz: How many FBI agents or CIs actively participated in the events of Jan 6?
Sanborn: “…Can’t go into the specifics of sources and methods”
Cruz: Did any FBI agents or CIs actively participate? Sanborn: “I can’t answer that”
Cruz: Did any FBI agents or CIs commit crimes of violence on J6? Sanborn: “I can’t answer that”
Cruz: “Did any FBI agents or CIs actively encourage and incite crimes of violence on J6?”
Sanborn: “I can’t answer that”
Cruz: Who is Ray Epps?  Sanborn: Aware, don’t know background
Cruz: “Was Ray Epps a fed?”  Sanborn: “I cannot answer that”
Cruz: Did Mr. Epps urge them to tear down the barricades?
Sanborn: “I cannot answer that”
Cruz: Did federal agents or those in service of federal agents actively encourage violent and criminal conduct on J6?  Sanborn: “Not to my knowledge”
 
Sanborn is the FBI’s executive assistant director of the National Security Branch.
 
@ColumbiaBugle: Senator @tedcruz’s Full Questioning of The FBI At Senate Judiciary Hearing Today About Whether There Were FBI Informants Present on January 6th and Ray Epps…
https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1480941660401979405
 
@DonaldJTrumpJr: A sincere message to journalists out there. Here we have a senior FBI official refusing to tell the U.S. Senate whether or not they actively participated in the events of Jan. 6. This seems worthy of at least honestly exploring, right?
 
@RNCResearch: Kamala Harris calls the Senate filibuster “arcane.”  Democrats used the filibuster 327 times in 2020.  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1481013526797946885
 
Tucker Carlson, among many others, mocked the noticeable but odd change to Pelosi’s countenance.
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1480719018776571906?s=09
 
Colorado’s Perlmutter becomes 26th House Democrat not running for reelection this year
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/colorados-perlmutter-becomes-26th-house-democrat-not-running-for-reelection-this-year
 
Nearly 100 murder suspects free on home confinement in Chicago area https://trib.al/EBx54Ff
 
Babylon Bee: FBI Promises to Make Hoaxes Less Obvious This Year
https://babylonbee.com/news/fbi-promises-to-make-2022-hoaxes-less-obvious

let us wrap up Wednesday with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter interviewing Craig Hemke

(Greg Hunter)

2022 Wild Unpredictable Year – Craig Hemke | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

2022 Wild Unpredictable Year – Craig Hemke

By Greg Hunter On January 11, 2022 In Market Analysis 3 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Financial writer, market analyst and precious metals expert Craig Hemke says there is only one certain thing you can say about the economy in 2022, and that is “Don’t buy the lie, the Fed does not have inflation under control.”  Everything else is a huge wild card.  We start with the stack of unpredictable things that Hemke sees, and he explains, “I think, economically, you can tell where we are headed, but anyone who can predict what 2022 is going to be like politically is crazy.  This is going to be a wild unpredictable year.  It will be volatile.  If anything, this is an election year in Congress.  All of the House and a third of the Senate and control of that agenda is up for grabs.  You know we are going back down the path of allegedly ‘peaceful demonstrations’ that come with it.  Then you’ve got inflation, supply chain disruptions and all these empty shelves.  What if that gets worse?  Then you have societal disruptions from hungry people.   Then everybody around the world has been sold this story that the vaccines are going to keep you out of the hospital, and they are going to keep the disease mild.  All that is being walked back now.  What if it turns out the vax has done more harm than good?  God only knows how the whole world will revolt.   If it is discovered in 2022 that the vaccines globally have done more harm than good, which is entirely possibly because it is new technology being used for the first time . . . . If it turns out that way, people are going to freak out. . . . If there are millions of people marching in the streets, the governments are not going to say, oh well, we screwed up.  You think they are cracking down now?  What do you think the crackdowns are going to look like nine months from now?”

So, it’s safe to say the entire CV19 vax and virus story is going to be the wildest of wild cards.  What Hemke can predict is the actions of the Fed in terms of fighting inflation and ending the easy money policies.  Considering the trillions of dollars in exponential money creation and debt, can the Fed make a wrong move and blow up the system cutting off liquidity and raising rates?    Hemke says, “Could they lose control?  Yes.  Will they?  Well, not yet, and that is all part of the challenge in forecasting, and that is you don’t know when that rubber band will reach that breaking point. . . . We’ve got $30 trillion in debt, and they have been able to reduce the interest rate paid on that debt.  The interest on that national debt is about $500 billion with an average interest rate of 1.6%.  So, when people say interest rates are going to go to 3% or 4%, what’s the interest going to cost — $1.2 trillion?  The whole thing spins than much out of control. . . . They cannot, cannot afford for that to happen. . . . Don’t buy the lie that the Fed has this under control and they are going to raise interest rates.”

The bottom line is Hemke says expect more inflation because the Fed cannot raise interest rates to fight it.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Craig Hemke of the popular website TFMetalsReport.com 1.11.22.  (There is much more in the 43 min interview.)

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

:https://usawatchdog.com/2022-wild-unpredictable-year-craig-hemke/

There is some free information on TFMetalsReport.com such as Hemke’s 2022 forecast called “Macrocast 2022:  Reality Bites.” 

(Greg Hunter)

I will see you on WEDNESDAY night/

end

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