JAN 13/2022//GOLD PRICE FELL BY $5.75 TO $1821.90//SILVER PRICE FELL 2 CENTS TO $23.13/COMEX GOLD STANDING INCREASES BY A MONSTROUS 4.765 TONNE QUEUE JUMP AS THE BANKERS ARE BADLY IN NEED OF PHYSICAL//GOLD STANDING FOR JAN: UP TO 12.515 TONNES//SILVER OZ STANDING BASICALLY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 13.615 MILLION OZ//SUPREME COURT GOES AGAINST BIDEN’S VACCINE MANDATE BUT ALLOWS THE MANDATE ON HEALTH CARE WORKERS TO CONTINUE AS LONG AS THERE ARE EXEMPTIONS//COVID COMMENTARIES//VACCINE MANDATE UPDATES/VACCINE IMPACT// CHINA CLOSES MAJOR PORTS AT DALIAN AND JIANJIN WHICH MAY PARALYZE GLOBAL SHIPPING//MOSCOW BLASTS USA AGAIN FOR NEW BILL WHICH WILL SANCTION RUSSIA FOR NOT COOPERATING WITH NATO//USA UNDER ATTACK AT THEIR EMBASSY IN IRAQ//USA PPI RISES ALMOST 10% AS THIS IS A FORERUNNER OF FUTURE INFLATION//INPUT COSTS STILL HIGH ON PPI//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD; DOWN $5.75 to $1821.90


SILVER: $23.13 DOWN 2 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD: 1822.55.. 

SILVER: $23.09

Bitcoin:  morning price: 43,807 up 86

Bitcoin: afternoon price: 42,000 down 1721

Platinum price: closing down $8.75 to $974.15

Palladium price; closing down  $22.60  at $1892.95

END

end

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comex notices//JPMorgan  notices filed  COMEX//NOTICES FILED

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,827.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/12/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 01/14/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


323 H HSBC 1001
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1528
661 C JP MORGAN 534 7


TOTAL: 1,535 1,535
MONTH TO DATE: 3,919


NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN. CONTRACT: 1535 NOTICE(S) FOR 153,500 OZ  (4.774  TONNES)

total notices so far:  3919 contracts for 391,900 oz (12.189 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  nil   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 2336  :  for 11,680,000  oz

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS): NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

CLOSING INVENTORY: 976.21 TONNES/

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS:/:

A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// 

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY SLV/ TONIGHT: 529.780 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI  ROSE BY A VERY STRONG 1702 CONTRACTS TO 144,144  AND RESTS CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020…... WITH THE $0.38 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.38) AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS  AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 2503 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES .

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A  STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 10.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON        V)  VERY  STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  -56

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 9 days, total  contracts: :  5364 contracts or 26.820 million oz  OR 2.98 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (596 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 5364 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 26.820 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 8 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

RESULT: WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1702 WITH OUR 38 CENT GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF  745 CONTRACTS( 745 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY:/ AS WELL AS TODAY /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF 10.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING 13.615, MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2447 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 12.235 MILLION OZ//

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL 595 TO 547,111, AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -3300  CONTRACTS

.

THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.65//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAVE HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALLED A GOOD SIZED 5093 CONTRACTS… 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN AT 3.5614 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTROUS 153,200 OZ QUEUE. JUMP//NEW STANDING: 12.37 TONNES      

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.65 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD  A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 1793  OI CONTRACTS (5.576 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALLED A SMALL SIZED  1198 CONTRACTS:

FOR FEB 1198  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL: 1198 

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 550,411.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1793, WITH 595 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1198 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1793 CONTRACTS OR 5.576TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1198) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (595): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1793 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 3.7262 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 153,200 OZ QUEUE. JUMP.//NEW STANDING 12.370 TONNES  3)ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION,4)  SMALL SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 24,224 CONTRACTS OR 2,422,400 oz OR 75.34  TONNES (9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2691 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 75.34 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  75.34/3550 x 100% TONNES  2.12% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE 

JANUARY: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           145.12 TONNES//INITIAL ISSUANCE// 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 1702 CONTRACTS TO 146,144  AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 745 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 745  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  745 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1702 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 745 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2447 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12.235 MILLION  OZ, 

OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.38 GAIN IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.17 PTS OR 1.17%      //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 27.60 PTS OR 0.11% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 276.53 PTS OR 0.96%      //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .45%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3608    /Oil UP TO 82.22 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 84.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  MOSTLY GREEN     //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN  AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3608. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3633: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN AND OFF SHORE TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR

A)NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 595 CONTRACTS  AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS SMALL COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG  GAIN OF $8.65 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL EFP (1198 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY BAILING OUT

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1198 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  DEC  :  0  & FEB. 1198 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1198 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED 1793 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1198 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 595  CONTRACTS..

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN   (12.370),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $8.65)

AND THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED 5.576 TONNES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (12.370 TONNES)…

WE HAD – 3300 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1793 CONTRACTS OR 179,300 OZ OR 5.576 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 301,169 better///

Confirmed volume yesterday: 252,095 contracts poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JAN ’22 COMEX GOLD 

JAN 13

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 9645.300 ozJPM 30 kilobars and includes 9236.55 oz london enhanced bars
total: 19,005.454                                                                                                                            
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznilOZ            
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz      nil                                                
No of oz served (contracts) today1535  notice(s)153,500 OZ4.774 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)58 contracts  5800 oz 0.1804TONNES  
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month3919 notices 391,900 OZ12.189 TONNES  
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

For today:

No dealer deposit 0

No dealer withdrawal 0

0 customer deposit

2 customer withdrawals

i) Out of JPMorgan:  9645.300 oz (30 kilobars)

ii) JPMorgan phony 

     enhanced accct      9236.55 oz  (from London/London 400 oz bars

ADJUSTMENTS: 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 1593 stand for JANUARY GAINING 669 contracts.  We had 863 notices filed on WEDNESDAY, so we GAINED A WHOPPING 1532 contracts or an additional 153,200 oz will stand for

gold in this very non active delivery month of January. The resulting queue jump equates to 4.76 tonnes, the greatest recorded queue jump in comex history.

FEBRUARY LOST 19,588 CONTRACTS TO 279,039

March lost 59 contracts to stand at 2299..

We had 1593 notice(s) filed today for 159,300  oz FOR THE JAN 2022 CONTRACT MONTH


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 534 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1535  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  7 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3919) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JAN: 1593 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  1535 x 100 oz per contract equals 402,357.25 OZ  OR 12.515 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of JAN. (numbers corrected from yesterday) 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:

No of notices filed so far (3919) x 100 oz+   (1593)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1535} x 100 oz} which equals 244,500 oz standing OR 7.605 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of JAN. 

We GAINED 1532 contracts or an additional  153,200 oz of gold(4.765 tonnes queue jump) will stand for metal on this side of the pond.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  12.370 TONNES  (HUGE FOR A JANUARY DELIVERY MONTH

IF THIS HOLDS TO THE END OF THE MONTH, THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED GOLD STANDING FOR A JANUARY, GENERALLY A VERY POOR DELIVERY MONTH.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

206,468.649, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  6.42 TONNES

174,041.813 PLEDGED  MANFRA 5.41 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690

288,481,604, oz  JPM No 2  8.97 TONNES

698,821.330 oz pledged June 12/2020 Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,244.444 oz International Delaware:  0..3808 tonne

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold:  1,653,017.372oz                                     51.42 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 33,617,243.347 OZ (1045.63 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,005,349.806 OZ (497.83 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,608,893.542 OZ  (547.71 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,955,876.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  496.29 tonnes

END

JANUARY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//JAN 13

And now for the wild silver comex results

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory885,722.405  oz BrinksCNTManfraJPM                                                                                                                       
Deposits to the Dealer InventorynilOZ                   
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1194,824.139 ozJPmorganCNT                                                                                   
No of oz served today (contracts)CONTRACT(S)nil  OZ) 
No of oz to be served (notices)387 contracts (1,935,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)2336 contracts 11,680,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil       oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We had 2 deposits

i)Into JPMorgan: 581,231.800 oz

ii) Into CNT: 613,592.339 oz

total:  1,194,824.139 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 184.937 million oz/353.378 million =52.32% of comex 

ii) Comex withdrawals: 4

a)  out of Brinks:  175,998.168 oz

b)  out of Manfra:  69,181.107 oz

c) out of Brinks 175,998.168oz

d) Out of CNT 360,965.500 oz

total withdrawal 885,722.405 oz

we had 1 adjustment

i) Out of Brinks: 168,164.510 oz leaves the dealer account and lands into the customer account

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.331 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 353.068 MILLION OZ

TOTAL NO OF CONTRACTS SERVED UPON THIS MONTH: 1980 CONTRACTS FOR 45,095,000 OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DECEMBER

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY: 185 NOTICES OR 925,000 OZ

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN//2022 OI: 387 CONTRACTS LOSING 186 contracts on the day

We had 185 notices filed for WEDNESDAY so we lost 1 contracts or 5,000 additional oz will not stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January.

FOR FEB WE HAD A LOSS OF 14 CONTRACTS UP TO 711

FOR MARCH WE HAD A GAIN OF 118 CONTRACTS UP TO 114,496 CONTRACTS.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz

Comex volumes: 54,233 poor// est. volume today

Comex volume: confirmed YESTERDAY: 61,228 contracts (poor)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  2336 x 5,000 oz =. 11,680,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN (387) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN./2021 contract month: 2336 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (387)  – number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month equates 13,615,000 oz. .

We LOST 1 contracts or an additional 5,000 oz will  stand for delivery on this side of the pond.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

GLD

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.65//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $19.25/A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.08 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWLA OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.83 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.30//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.99 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $10.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.31 TONNES

Jan 4/WITH GOLD UP $14.00//A HUGE CHANGE OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.31 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $14.05 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES 

DEC 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES.

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.94 TONNES FROM THE GLD/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES

DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $12.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.57 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.05 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.57 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65 TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.37 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.20 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $7.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.20 TONNES

DEC 16/WITH GOLD UP $33.05TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.4 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT: 977.20 TONNES

DEC15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.80 TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.04 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.60 TONNES.

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

DEC 10.WITH GOLD UP $7.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64 TONNES

DEC 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 982.64.

DEC 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY; A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 984.38 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 986.17 TONNES//

CLOSING INVENTORY: 976.21 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SLV.

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//

JAN 11/WITH SILVER  UP 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ/.

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 7/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL PF 226,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ?/

JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.219 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC30/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.624 MILLILON OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.682 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ//

DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.883 MILLION OZ/

DEC 21/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.728 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.085 MILLION OZ

DEC 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.282 MILLION OZ

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.282 MILLION OZ//

DEC 16/WITH SILVER UP 91 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.33 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 538.282 MILLION OZ

DEC  15WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.48 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.612 MILLION OZ

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.092 MILLION OZ

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.561 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.092 MILLION OZ//

DEC 10.WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.653 MILLION OZ..

DEC 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.653 MILLION OZ/

DEC 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.693 MILLION OZ///

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.693 MILLION OZ..

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.110 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.693 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY:  529.780 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

PETER SCHIFF

end

LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,James  RICKARDS

Von Greyerz: Coming Market Madness Could Take 70 Years To Recover From

THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

Cervantes famous classic novel Don Quixote can in simple terms be described as a fight for liberty and freedom against oppression and against the state. This book is from 1605 and considered to be one of the best books ever written.

In the midst of market madness, risk doesn’t exist because lunatics neither see, nor worry about risk. And still, 2022 will be more about risk and survival than anything else. So I will obviously talk more about The Triumph of Survival” which I discussed in a recent piece.

“When life itself seems lunatic, who knows where madness lies.” – Don Quixote

The year 2022 will most likely be the culmination of risk. An epic risk moment in history  that very few investors will see until it is too late as they expect to be saved yet another time by the Fed and other central banks.

And why should anyone believe that 2022 will be different from any year since 2009 when this bull market started? Few investors are superstitious and therefore won’t see that 13 spectacular years in stocks and other asset markets might signify an end to the epic super bubble.

The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2006-9 was never repaired. Central bankers and governments patched Humpty up with glue and tape in the form of printed trillions of dollars, euro, yen etc. But poor Humpty Dumpty was fatally injured and the intensive care he received would only give him a temporary reprieve.

When the GFC started in 2006, global debt was $120 trillion. Today we are at $300t, rising to potentially $3 quadrillion when the debt and derivative bubble finally first explodes and then implodes as I explained in my previous article.

It is amazing what fake money made of just air can achieve. Even better of course is that the central banks have manipulated interest rates to ZERO or below which means the debt is issued at zero or even negative cost.

INVESTORS HAVE FOUND SHANGRI-LA

Investors now believe they are in Shangri-La where markets can only go up and they can live in eternal bliss. Few understand that the increase in global debt since 2006 of $180t is what has fuelled investment markets.

Just look at these increases in the stock indices since 2008:

Nasdaq up 16X

S&P up 7x

Dow up 6X

And there are of course even more spectacular gains in stocks like:

Tesla up 352X or Apple up 62X.

These type of gains have very little to do with skilful investment, but mainly with a herd that has more money than sense fuelled by paper money printed at zero cost.

To call the end of a secular bull market is a mug’s game. And there is nothing that stops this bubble from growing bigger. But we must remember that the bigger it grows, the greater the risk is of it totally wiping out gains not just since 2009 but also since the early 1980s when the current bull market started.

The problem is also that it will be impossible for the majority of investors to get out. Initially they will believe that it is just another correction like in 2020, 2007, 2000, 1987 etc. So greed will stop them from getting out.

But then as the fall continues and fear sets in, investors will set a limit higher up where they intend to get out. And when the market never gets there, the scared investor will continue to set limits that are never reached until the market reaches the bottom at 80-95% from the top.

And thus paper fortunes will be wiped out. We must also remember that it can take a painstakingly long time before the market recovers to the high in real terms.

As Ray Dalio shows in the chart below, the 1929 high in the Dow was not even recovered in real terms by the mid 1960s. Finally it was surpassed in 2000.

This means that it took 70 years to recover in real terms! So investors might have to wait until 2090 to recover the current highs after the coming fall.

So looking at the chart, the market is now at a similar overvalued level it was in 1929, 1972 and 2000.

Thus the risk is as great as at some historical tops in the last 100 years.

THE EPIC BUBBLE MIGHT NOT RECOVER UNTIL 2090

The chart below shows that the 1929 top in the Dow was not reached in real terms until 2000.

How many investors are prepared to take the risk of a say 90% fall like in 1929-32 and not recover in real terms until by 2090!

Again, I repeat that this is not a forecast. But it is an epic warning that risk in investment markets are now at a level that investors should avoid.

I fear that sadly very few investors will heed this risk warning.

DON QUIXOTE WOULD HAVE FOUGHT WOKENESS

As the world is being ever more oppressed and controlled by the state, Cervantes’ message in Don Quixote could not be more appropriate.

I am quite convinced that Don Quixote would also have fought against the wokeness that today has become the guideline not onlyfor human behaviour but also for justice.

In the UK last week, a court acquitted four people accused of pulling down a statue  of a historical figure who had been a major benefactor of the city of Bristol. Yes, he had made money on the slave trade in the late 1600s but where do we stop rewriting history?

With today’s woke interpretation of history, virtually every historical king, emperor, government leader, general or businessman, to mention a few, should be put on trial even if they are all dead.

For example, Great Britain, France, Spain were all part of invading North America killing a major part of the Indian population and taking their land. So if we rewrite history, shouldn’t all these Europeans as well as the Africans be pulled out of North America and the land handed bank to the Indians.

The same goes for South America of course. The Spanish and the Portuguese must all return and give the land back.

And where do we stop? We should really go back to the Han Dynasty, the Roman, the Mongol, the Ottoman, Spanish, Russian or British Empires.

Why just deal with the slave trade in Africa when all these empires ransacked and conquered major land areas, took slaves and stole the riches of the countries they invaded. In a woke and fair world, all these actions must be reversed too.

If the world decides to rewrite history, it must be done properly with major restitutions. There must of course be a UN Commission, and EU Commission and many more to deal with this properly.

As Don Quixote said: Who knows where madness lies”.

EASY MONEY MADNESS

But it is most probably the total market Madness in the financial world which will have the biggest effect on the world economy in 2022 and onwards.

As I have pointed out many times, the US has not had a budget surplus since 1930 with the exception of a couple of years in the 1940s and 50s. The Clinton surpluses were fake as debt still increased.

But the money and market Madness started in the 1970s after Nixon couldn’t make ends meet and closed the gold window. The US federal debt in 1971 was $400 billion. Since then the US debt has grown by an average of 9% per year. This means that the US debt has doubled every 8 years since 1971. We can actually go back 90 years to 1931 and find that US debt since then has doubled every 8.3 years.

What a remarkable record of total mismanagement of the US economy for a century!

The US has not had to build an empire in the conventional way by conquering other countries. Instead the combination of a reserve currency, money printing and a strong military power has given the US global power and a global financial empire.

Even worse, since the sinister smart coup by private bankers in 1913 to take control of the creation of money, the US Federal debt has gone from $1 billion to almost $30 trillion.

As Mayer Amschel Rothschild poignantly stated in 1838:

“Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation and I care not who makes its laws”.

And that is exactly what some powerful bankers and a senator decided on Jekyll Island in 1910 when they conspired to take over the US money system through the creation of the Fed which was founded in 1913.

Ever since that time the bankers have helped themselves from the self-filling honeypot.

Controlling the Fed has given the bankers an unlimited supply of money and credit to finance their activities. They have used this to acquire assets around the world as well as power. As is the general rule today, debt is never repaid since new debt always makes the old debt insignificant as the currency is constantly debased with all the new money issued.

The debt issued was not only used for the direct financial gain of the bankers. No debt buys enormous power and by creating money to finance profligate governments, the bankers are also buying power and controlling the politicians.

What a wonderful position as Rothschild made clear almost 200 years ago.

I COME IN A WORLD OF IRON TO MAKE A WORLD OF GOLD – Don Quixote

This was the ambitious goal of Don Quixote.

But he didn’t succeed and today’s bankers have a totally different goal which is to make a world of fiat money. And they have been spectacularly successful at it.

But the investors who wish to survive the coming global economic debacle must heed Don Quixote’s words and turn their paper assets into physical gold.

Stocks, bonds and property in coming years will lose at least 90% in real terms against gold.

Gold in US dollars started a bull market in 2001 as the chart below shows. Since then, gold is up every year (sideways 2018) until 2021 when we saw a small correction. Gold’s up cycles normally last at least 10 years. This means that the current leg of the bull market in gold should last at least until 2026 and potentially extend beyond that.

As I regularly point out, gold is extremely cheap in relation to the growth in US money supply.

Gold is today as cheap as it was in 1970 at $35 and as cheap as in 2000 at $290.

Thus the upside potential for gold is multiples of the current price, especially since the currency debasement will accelerate due to accelerated money printing.

Gold is the king of wealth preservation and should be held in physical form outside the banking system.

Silver is likely to go up 2-3 times as fast as gold and is therefore a fantastic speculative investment as long as it is held in physical form. The risk of holding paper silver is massive since there is virtually no physical silver available. But due to the volatility of silver, investors should hold a much smaller percentage of their financial assets in silver than in gold.

In summary, 2022 could be the year when investors’ wealth turns into ashes, or for the prudent investor, turns into solid gains in gold and silver.

END

OTHER GOLD STORIES

END

OTHER COMMODITIES/

CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Steve Brown on Bitcoin!

Bitcoin: Vanguard’s Great FinTech Reset

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According to the WTO, in 2020 global trade volume decreased by 9%. Of course that global trade decline is attributed to the economic effect of the contagion; however US trade wars and weaponization of the US dollar, along with the US boxing itself into a trade-restrained corner by politically motivated sanctions, must count, too.

Any potential for a reversal in globalization alarms the Vanguard Group to such an extent however, they produced a paper intended to soothe Elite nerves on the matter: Link: https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/Megatrends-The-deglobalization-myths-ISG052021%20(1).pdf and characterize the reversal in global trade as “slowbilization” instead of de-globalization.

The Vanguard “Deglobalization Myth” paper was produced by ivory tower monetary kleptocrats and their serfs, and the paper is full of acronyms like “GFC” (Global Financial Crisis) which is all the reader needs to know about its substance, or lack of it.

Vanguard Group is the wealthiest investment group on earth, and owns a big share of the next largest investment group too, BlackRock. But Elites have desire to avoid the slings and arrows of a potentially torch-bearing public, and notoriety to those who may have, in an earlier era, had their heads. Vanguard Group is particularly sinister in that regard, where participation in the Group is opaque by structure, and Vanguard Group’s major shareholders are effectively impossible to identify.

Filmmaker Tim Gielen, author of “Monopoly Who Owns the World” Link : https://www.bitchute.com/video/EHrd2p3HkTEj/ has researched Vanguard’s ownership in depth, only to determine what we must already suspect, “This means that Vanguard is in the hands of the richest families on earth.” Link: https://www.organicconsumers.org/news/who-owns-world-blackrock-and-vanguard A leading light of Vanguard is of course John Brennan of Rockefeller Capital Management, with deep ties to the Saudi monarchy and to the Evil Empire in general. Link: https://rcm.rockco.com/leadership_items/john-j-brennan/

We can internalize, externalize, or ignore the foregoing facts altogether, but in the west, Vanguard controls and owns what we eat, what we drink, and even our health. In a sense, Vanguard Group determines where we live, how we live, and the materials used to build our homes. Vanguard Group is a monopolistic cartel and also a parasitic entity feeding on ubiquitous cronyism, greed, and a lust for power never known in western history before, to such an extent. Vanguard is where the giant moving parts of an extant sinister regime work together to reinforce one another. And oh, by the way.. Vanguard Group is a substantial owner of Bitcoin, too.

One example is Michael Saylor’s Microstrategy (MSTR) Wall Street bitcoin stock which has a US $6B market capitalization.

Saylor in 1992

With 66%+ institutional ownership, Vanguard Group and BlackRock (in part owned by Vanguard) is the second largest holder of this bitcoin offering, Microstrategy (MSTR):

The Wall Street bitcoin shill is also played out by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) largely owned by Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation:

Cathie Wood’s ETF and the Vanguard ETF supposedly compete, but these funds and groups are totally incestuous, meaning they all own parts of each other. Vanguard, BlackRock, Ark etc are simply the moving parts of a massive monopolistic cabal… not truly “investments”. Vanguard and associated whales by market implication own most (Wall Street) bitcoin, but recall that that the Pax Americana’s Fed is heavily invested too, where the Federal Reserve via its Primary Dealers and ESF leverages bitcoin to launder billions in inflationary fiat currency. Link: https://novusconfidential.wordpress.com/2021/02/27/180-billion-just-got-lost/

F U money apesLink: https://youtu.be/_uJwvlimnNs and FinTech may chant a $100K bitcoin laser eyes mantra, but it’s Vanguard Group’s infinitely corrupt mainstream media, CNBC, MSNBC, Bloomberg etc that chant the BTC bullshit at a fever pitch; as feverish as any Bohemian Grove blood beast. As we examined in Bitcoin Rinse and Repeat, Christine LeGarde and Central Bank cut-outs might whine about bitcoin, but the BTC scam is essential to their DNA of fiat sterilization, the Vanguard Group, and its related financial cabal.

Vanguard’s vanguard are the debauched bitcoin messiahs link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZyvjJX8RLc who bray about the freedom and liberty that bitcoin supposedly provides to the downtrodden, while Vanguard essentially plans for its financial version of the Great Reset link: https://moneyandmarkets.com/fedcoin-federal-reserve-studying-digital-currency/ for which Bitcoin is the test case. The FinTech messiah’s mantra chant about “decentralization” of Bitcoin is an irrelevance too when any government in the world can prevent its banking system from interacting with any bitcoin exchange in the world, at any time. And, any bitcoin exchange can prevent bitcoin transactions for political reasons.

Crypto.com, coinbase.com, and bitfinex.com prohibit transactions for political reasons, where the SouthFront bitcoin transaction ban by those exchanges provides a concise example. Link: https://southfront.org/the-safest-way-to-donate-cryptocurrency/ I’d written before that avoidance of illegal US Treasury sanctions and weaponization of a deeply corrupt warfare state Federal Reserve dollar provides the only positive use case for bitcoin.** Now, with the SouthFront example, that’s no longer true. And precisely the opposite of what bitcoiners T Maxwell Keiser, Brock Pierce, and Mr Mike “The Burger Guy” Saylor tell their bitcoin converts regarding the purity of “decentralized bitcoin” .

Essentially crypto.com, coinbase.com, bitfinex.com serve Vanguard’s Masters of War; they are serfs of Empire. Which questions the original premise of bitcoin itself, that somehow bitcoin will “screw the man” and liberate oppressed people all over the world from monetary tyranny. It’s a crytpo propaganda crusade endorsed by Vanguard, where we are told that the downtrodden and politically oppressed everywhere will be saved by a Kahzakh hashrater’s hash. Bullshit. It’s a lie like every other lie the Vanguard Group’s “investment” Empire perpetrates, with such emphasis and influence that the alt-media brays the same lying tune as the MSM.

Despite the bitcoin anointed mantra about “decentralization”, factually the OCC may shutdown nearly all bitcoin transactions in the US by preventing any US accredited bank from transacting with any crypto exchange, anywhere. Of course the OCC won’t do that as we examined in Why the Fed Loves Bitcoin Pt 3, because the “open ledger” provides a dark pool for the Fed’s criminal dealers to disappear billions in Federal Reserve-created near-garbage US dollars. Link: Sterilzation of capital Also see: Link: https://novusconfidential.wordpress.com/2021/03/05/why-the-fed-loves-bitcoin-pt-3/

As such, let’s take a deeper dive into the Deep Financial States (of America) suspicious shenanigans. The Fed’s reverse repo gaming* chart shows a big dip from December 31st to January 11th at the far right side of the chart:

Link:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD

The Fed began tapering some time before, so the dip at the right of the chart does not fully represent that. What does it represent? Coinciding with the first protests in Khazakstan (likely engineered by the same cabal that the Vanguard Group represents Link: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/mysteries-of-the-failed-rebellion-in-kazakhstan.html and see: https://www.strategeast.org/rothschild-considering-expanding-activities-kazakhstan-uzbekistan/ and see: 1999: US Silk Road Act ) we received a report that the bitcoin hashrate fell by nearly 20%, resolving a mystery regarding where most China bitcoin “miners” had gone. (Beside Texas of course!)

Now let’s examine Bitcoin’s chart to date, which reflects trading in all of the many thousands of other crypto on the blockchain:

Note the dip down from December 31st until now. The performance is identical. This implies that Fed’s dealers are far more implicated in the bitcoin scam than ever imagined. Recall too that the repo market is essentially a Fed insider operation to bankroll its crooked dealers. Link: https://wallstreetonparade.com/2021/12/the-fed-gets-its-ducks-in-a-row-for-the-next-wall-street-bailout-quietly-adds-goldman-sachs-bank-citibank-to-its-new-500-billion-standing-repo-facility/ And see: https://gsiexchange.com/jpmorgan-chase-has-racked-up-5-criminal-felony-counts/

Because the Federal Reserve has somewhat reduced its cash injections to its highly criminalized dealers (QE tapering) that may account, in part, for the chart dip. But the similarity to recent declines in a scam derivative (ie bitcoin – a scam only outdone by the scam of the Fed dollar itself) is uncanny.

Meanwhile another intensely criminal financial house that promoted liar loans while short-selling securities based on those very same liar loans, gloats about the potential for bitcoin to reach $100K US! Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/korihale/2022/01/11/goldman-sachs-100k-bitcoin-endorsement-buoys-digital-gold/ Of course Goldman Sachs expects the poor and downtrodden who so benefit from bitcoin (crying all the way from their bank) to believe that. And for one reason. Because GS is convinced that you, the reader, are into this ponzi just as much as Goldman Sachs is…. Or perhaps a second …Goldman Sachs simply takes the public for being the perpetual marks they frequently are?

In who or whom do we trust? Perhaps the God in which the USA trusts is the Vanguard Group god of mammon. It certainly seems so. And many F U money young people have gone along with that. After all, ‘Jailers are most happy when their prisoners either cooperatively or unknowingly build their own prison..’

Bitcoin. Wall Street and Fed dealer banks… have never seen a scam they didn’t like!

*called Open Market Operations which involves the world’s most criminal banks)

** “use case” as a currency is minimal; bitcoin may only transact at seven times per second, maximum.

NB: Here Shanti Phula describes the western financial cabal’s incestuous relationships: https://ronaldwederfoort.wordpress.com/2016/04/02/vanguard-group-us-2080-trillion-rothschild-major-shareholder/

NB: Also see: CIA’s Bitcoin Heist (Afghanistan) Link: https://strategika51.org/2021/09/05/cias-bitcoin-heist/

Steve Brown

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3608

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3636

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 27.60 PTS OR 0.11%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 276.53 PTS OR 0.96%

3. Europe stocks  ALL MOSTLY GREEN   

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  94.82/Euro RISES TO 1.1462-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.131/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 114.32/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 82.22 and Brent: 84.38-

3f Gold DON/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN//  OFF- SHORE  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.0.064%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 1.23% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 0.61%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.29: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 1.52

3k Gold at $1821.25 silver at: 23.16   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble; Russian rouble UP 100/100 in roubles/dollar AT 75.58

3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 114.32 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9120– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0454 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.743 UP 0 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.083 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.59

Futures Flat Ahead Of Another Scorching PPI Print

THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 08:00 AM

US futures were little changed on Thursday one day after the highest CPI print since 1982 and just minutes before another red hot PPI print is expected (9.8%, up from 9.6%), as investors tried to gauge the timing and pace of monetary tightening. S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.1% as investors waited for the next trading signal. 10Y yields were flat around 1.74%, and the dollar edged lower as a growing tide of investors bet the world’s reserve currency has reached a peak with rate hikes largely priced-in to the market with Fed tightening likely to lead to an economic slowdown.

“Markets in 2022 have been volatile as the reality of inflation set in, and this reaction mainly reflects relief that the print did not exceed already lofty expectations,” Geir Lode, head of global equities at the international business of Federated Hermes, said in an email.

Inflation hitting 7% could force a quicker move by the Federal Reserve, with the market now pricing four rate hikes this year starting no later than March, according to technical analyst Pierre Veyret at ActivTrades in London. “Investors still struggle with one crucial question: how will the Fed manage to tackle rising price pressure without derailing the fragile post-pandemic economic recovery?”

Sure enough, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and her Philadelphia peer Patrick Harker added their voices to the chorus in interviews published yesterday evening and this morning, calling for a rate hike as soon as March when odds of a rate hike have hit a new high of 90%. Attention today will be on the confirmation hearing of Lael Brainard in the Senate. The vice-chair nominee, who last publicly commented on the economic outlook in September, said in prepared remarks that tackling inflation is the bank’s “most important task.”

In premarket trading, shares in Delta Air Lines rose more than 2% even though the carrier missed revenue and EPS expectations, after the company said the omicron variant won’t derail its expectation to remain profitable for the rest of the year, as it released fourth-quarter financial results. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:

  • U.S. chip stocks are mixed in premarket trading after sector bellwether TSMC gave a 1Q sales outlook that beat estimates and raised its projected annual capex versus last year. Equipment stock Applied Materials (AMAT US) +2% premarket, while TSMC customers are mixed with Apple (AAPL US) -0.1%, Nvidia (NVDA US) +0.7% and AMD (AMD US) +0.6%.
  • Puma Biotechnology (PBYI US) shares surge 13% in U.S. premarket trading, after the company said that its Nerlynx treatment was included in the National Comprehensive Cancer Network’s (NCCN) clinical practice guidelines in oncology for the treatment of breast cancer.
  • KB Home (KBH US) shares rise 6.2% in premarket trading after the homebuilder’s 4Q EPS beat estimates, with Wells Fargo calling the results and guidance “solid.”
  • Planet Labs (PL US) shares rise 1.6% in U.S. premarket trading, after the satellite data provider said that it plans to launch 44 SuperDove satellites on Thursday on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.
  • Adagio Therapeutics (ADGI US) said ADG20 has neutralization activity against omicron and cites recent findings from three publications on ADG20. Shares jumped 30% in post-market trading.

Discussing yesterday’s scorching CPI print, DB’s Jim Reid writes that “if you did an MRI scan of US inflation yesterday you’d find things to support both sides of the debate which is surprising when it hit 7% YoY and the highest since 1982 when Fed Funds were more than 13% rather than close to zero as they are today. So a slightly different real rate to back then. In fact the real rate is through any level seen in the 1970s and is only comparable to WWII levels. Back to CPI and the YoY number was in line with expectations, but core and MoM figures were all a bit firmer than expected. However, the beats were small enough that the data didn’t significantly change the outlook for monetary policy, with Fed funds futures still pricing in an 89% chance of a March hike, which is roughly around where it’d been over the preceding days.”

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index paused after a two-day advance, erasing early declines of as much as 0.3% to trade little changed, with technology and automotive shares offsetting losses in consumer products and health care. CAC 40 underperforms, dropping as much as 0.6%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology sub-index is up 1.1%, getting a boost from chip stocks which gained after sector bellwether TSMC gave a 1Q sales outlook that beat estimates and raised its projected annual capex versus last year. Geberit dropped as much as 4.5% to a seven-month low after the Swiss producer of sanitary installations reported fourth-quarter sales.

Bloomberg Dollar Spot dips into the red pushing most majors to best levels of the session. NZD, AUD and GBP are the best G-10 performers. Crude futures maintain a relatively narrow range. WTI is flat near $82.70, Brent stalls near $84.84. Spot gold dips before finding support near $1,820/oz. Most base metals are in the red with LME zinc lagging peers. 

Asian stocks were little changed after capping their biggest rally in a year, with health-care and software-technology names retreating while financials advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fluctuated between a drop of 0.3% and a gain of 0.2% on Thursday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index lost 1.8% after rising the most in three months in the previous session. Benchmarks in China and Japan were the day’s worst performers, while the Philippines and Australia outperformed.   “The market rose a bit too much yesterday,” said Mamoru Shimode, chief strategist at Resona Asset Management in Tokyo. “Investors keep shifting back and forth from value stocks to growth names and vise versa. It’s because we don’t know yet where U.S. long-term yields will end up settling around.”  The Asian stock measure jumped 1.9% Wednesday on views that the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate hikes will help curb inflation and allow the global recovery to chug along. U.S. inflation readings overnight, at an almost four-decade high, were in line with expectations and helped investors keep previous bets

Japanese stocks fell after Tokyo raised its Covid-19 alert to the second-highest level on a four-tier system. The Topix dropped 0.7% to 2,005.58 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 1% to 28,489.13. Recruit Holdings Co. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, decreasing 4%. Out of 2,181 shares in the index, 500 rose and 1,604 fell, while 77 were unchanged. HIS, Japan Airlines and other travel shares fell. Tokyo’s daily cases jumped more than fivefold on Wednesday to 2,198 compared with 390 a week earlier.

India’s benchmark equity index eeked out gains to complete its longest string of advances since mid-October, buoyed by the nation’s top two IT firms after their earnings reports. The S&P BSE Sensex rose for a fifth day, adding 0.1% to close at 61,235.30 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index climbed 0.3%. Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services were among the biggest boosts to both measures. Of the 30 shares in the Sensex index, 19 rose and 11 fell. Thirteen of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. advanced, led by a gauge of metal companies.  Infosys’ quarterly earnings beat and bellwether Tata Consultancy Services’s better-than-expected sales offer some hope that the rally in India’s technology sector has further room to run, according to analysts. Still, Wipro sank the most in a year after its profit missed estimates

Fixed income is relatively quiet, with changes across major curves limited to less than a basis point so far. The 10-year yield stalled around 1.75%, slightly cheaper on the day, and broadly in line with bunds and gilts. Eurodollar futures bear steepen a touch after a round of hawkish Fedspeak during Asian hours. Treasuries were steady with yields broadly within a basis point of Wednesday’s close.  Eurodollars are slightly lower across green- and blue-pack contracts after Fed’s Daly and Harker sounded hawkish tones during Asia hours. Across front-end, eurodollar strip steepens out to blue-pack contracts (Mar25-Dec25), which are lower by up to 4bp. 30-year bond reopening at 1pm ET concludes this week’s coupon auction cycle.$22b 30-year reopening at 1pm ET follows 0.3bp tail in Wednesday’s 10-year auction, and large tails in last two 30-year sales. The WI 30-year yield at ~2.095% is above auction stops since June and ~20bp cheaper than last month’s, which tailed the WI by 3.2bp.

In FX, the pound advanced to its highest level since Oct. 29 amid calls for U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson to resign over a “bring your own bottle” party at the height of a lockdown meant to stem the first wave of coronavirus infections in 2020. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held a two-month low as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers, and the euro rallied a third day as it approached the $1.15 handle. Implied volatility in the major currencies over the two- week tenor, that now captures the next Fed meeting, comes in line with the roll yet investors are choosing sides. The Australian dollar extended its overnight gain as the greenback declined following as-expected U.S. inflation. Iron ore supply concern also supported the currency. The yen hovered near a two-week high as long dollar positions were unwound. Japanese government bonds traded in narrow ranges.

In commodities, cude futures maintain a relatively narrow range. WTI is flat near $82.70, Brent stalls near $84.50. Spot gold dips before finding support near $1,820/oz. Most base metals are in the red with LME zinc lagging peers. Bitcoin traded around $44,000 as the inflation numbers rekindled the debate about whether the cryptocurrency is a hedge against rising consumer prices.

Expected data on Thursday include producer prices, an early indicator of inflationary trends, and unemployment claims.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,715.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 485.67
  • MXAP little changed at 196.79
  • MXAPJ up 0.1% to 643.93
  • Nikkei down 1.0% to 28,489.13
  • Topix down 0.7% to 2,005.58
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 24,429.77
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.2% to 3,555.26
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 61,220.38
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,474.36
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,962.09
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.04%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1465
  • Brent Futures down 0.1% to $84.58/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,820.68
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.83

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and her Philadelphia Fed peer Patrick Harker joined the ranks of officials publicly discussing an interest-rate increase as early as March as the central bank seeks to combat the hottest inflation in a generation
  • Global central banks will diverge on the way they respond to inflation this year, creating risks to economies everywhere, Bank of England policy maker Catherine Mann said
  • Norway’s race to appoint a new central bank governor is reaching a finale mired in controversy at the prospect of a political ally and friend of Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store getting the job
  • Italy’s government is working on a spending package that won’t require revising its budget to expand the deficit, people familiar with the matter said
  • Several of China’s largest banks have become more selective about funding real estate projects by local government financing vehicles, concerned that some are taking on too much risk after they replaced private developers as key buyers of land, people familiar with the matter said

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed following the choppy session in the US where major indices eked mild gains as markets digested CPI data in which headline annual inflation printed at 7.0%. ASX 200 (+0.5%) was underpinned as the energy and mining related sectors continued to benefit from the recent upside in underlying commodity prices, while Crown Resorts shares outperformed after Blackstone raised its cash proposal for Crown Resorts following due diligence inquiries. Nikkei 225 (-1.0%) declined with the index hampered by unfavourable currency flows and with Tokyo raising its COVID-19 alert to the second-highest level. Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.1%) were initially subdued, but did diverge later, after the slight miss on loans and aggregate financing data, while there is a slew of upcoming key releases from China in the days ahead including trade figures tomorrow, as well as GDP and activity data on Monday. In addition, the biggest movers were headline driven including developer Sunac China which dropped by a double-digit percentage after it priced a 452mln-share sale at a 15% discount to repay loans and cruise operator Genting Hong Kong wiped out around half its value on resumption of trade after it warned of defaults due to insolvency of its German shipbuilding business. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded rangebound and were stuck near the 151.00 level following the indecisive mood in T-notes which was not helped by an uninspiring 10yr auction stateside, while the lack of BoJ purchases in the market also added to the humdrum tone.

Top Asian News

  • Asia Stocks Steady After Best Rally in a Year; Financials Gain
  • Country Garden Selloff Shows Chinese Developer Worries Spreading
  • China Banks Curb Property Loans to Local Government Firms
  • China’s True Unemployment Pain Masked by Official Data

Bourses in Europe now see a mixed picture with the breadth of the price action also narrow (Euro Stoxx 50 Unch; Stoxx 600 -0.10%). The region initially opened with a modest downside bias following on from a mostly negative APAC handover after Wall Street eked mild gains. US equity futures have since been choppy within a tight range and exhibit a relatively broad-based performance with no real standout performers. Back in Europe, sectors are mixed and lack an overarching theme. Tech remains the outperformer since the morning with some follow-through seen from contract-chip manufacturer TSMC (ADR +4.3% pre-market), who beat on net and revenue whilst upping its 2022 Capex to USD 40bln-44bln from around USD 30bln the prior year, whilst the CEO expects capacity to remain tight throughout 2022. Tech is closely followed by Autos and Parts and Travel & Leisure, whilst the other end of the spectrum sees Healthcare, Oil & Gas, Retail and Personal & Household goods among the straddlers – with Tesco (-1.5%) and Marks & Spencer (-5.3%) weighing on the latter two following trading updates. In terms of other individual movers, BT (+0.5%) trades in the green amid reports DAZN is nearing a deal to buy BT Sport for around USD 800mln, a could be reached as soon as this month but has not been finalized. Turning to analyst commentary: Morgan Stanley’s clients have aligned themselves to the view that European equities will likely perform better than US counterparts. 45% of respondents see Financials as the top-performing sector this year, 14% preferred Tech which would be the lowest score in over six years.

Top European News

  • Johnson Buys Time With Apology But U.K. Tory Rage Simmers
  • U.K. Retailers Slide as Updates Show Lingering Impact of Virus
  • Wood Group Plans Sale of Built Environment Unit Next Quarter
  • Just Eat Advisers Pitching Grubhub Sale or Take-Private: Sources

In FX, the Dollar has weakened further in wake of Wednesday’s US inflation data as ‘buy rumour sell fact’ dynamics are compounded by more position paring and increasingly bearish technical impulses to outweigh fundamental factors that seem supportive, on paper or in theory. Indeed, the index only mustered enough recovery momentum to reach 95.022 on the back of hawkish Fed commentary and some short covering before retreating through the psychological level, then yesterday’s 94.903 low and another trough from late 2021 at 94.824 (November 11 base) to 94.710, thus far and leaving little bar the 100 DMA, at 94.675 today, in terms of support ahead of 94.500. However, the flagging Greenback could get a fillip via PPI and/or IJC, if not the next round of Fed speakers and final leg of this week’s auction remit in the form of Usd 22 bn long bonds.

  • NZD/AUD – A change in the running order down under where the Kiwi has overtaken the Aussie irrespective of bullish calls on the Aud/Nzd cross from MS, with Nzd/Usd breaching the 50 DMA around 0.6860 on the way to 0.6884 and Aud/Usd scaling the 100 DMA at 0.7288 then 0.7300 before fading at 0.7314.
  • GBP/EUR/CHF/CAD/JPY – Also extracting more impetus at the expense of the Buck, but to varying degrees as Sterling continues to shrug aside ongoing Tory party turmoil to attain 1.3700+ status and surpass the 200 DMA that stands at 1.3737, while the Euro has overcome Fib resistance around 1.1440, plus any semi-psychological reticence at 1.1450 to reach 1.1478 and the Franc is now closer to 0.9100 than 0.9150. Elsewhere, crude is still providing the Loonie with an incentive to climb and Usd/Cad has recoiled even further from early 2022 peaks beneath 1.2500 as a result, and the Yen is around 114.50 with scope for a stronger retracement to test the 55 DMA, at 114.22.
  • SCANDI/EM – Some signs of fatigue as the Nok stalls on the edge of 9.9000 against the Eur in tandem with Brent just a few cents over Usd 85/brl, but the Czk has recorded fresh decade-plus highs vs the single currency following remarks from CNB chief Rusnok on the need to keep tightening and acknowledging that this may culminate in Koruna appreciation. The Cnh and Cny are firmer vs the Usd pre-Chinese trade and GDP data either side of the weekend, but the Rub is lagging again as the Kremlin concludes that there was no progress in talks between Russia and the West, but the Try is underperforming again with headwinds from elevated oil prices and regardless of a marked pick up in Turkish ip.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month contracts have conformed to the indecisive mood across the markets, although the benchmarks received a mild uplift as the Dollar receded in early European hours. As it stands, the WTI Feb and Brent Mar contract both reside within USD 0.80/bbl ranges near USD 82.50/bbl and USD 84.50/bbl respectively. News flow for the complex has been quiet and participants are on the lookout for the next catalyst, potentially in the form of US jobless claims/PPI amid multiple speakers, although the rise in APAC COVID cases remains a continuous headwind on demand for now – particularly in China. On the geopolitical front, Russian-backed troops have reportedly begun pulling out of the 1.6mln BPD Kazakh territory, but Moscow’s tensions with the West do not seem to abate. Russia’s Kremlin suggested talks with the West were “unsuccessful” – which comes after NATO’s Secretary-General yesterday suggested there is a real risk of a new armed conflict in Europe. Elsewhere, spot gold has drifted off best levels as the DXY found a floor, for now – with the closest support yesterday’s USD 1,813/oz low ahead of the 50 and 21 DMAs at USD 1,807/oz and USD 1,806.50/oz respectively. LME copper has also pulled back from yesterday’s best levels to levels under USD 10,000/t as the mood remains cautious, although, copper prices in Shanghai rose to over a two-month high as it played catch-up to LME yesterday.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Dec. PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 9.8%, prior 9.6%; MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
  • 8:30am: Dec. PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 8.0%, prior 7.7%; MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.7%
  • 8:30am: Jan. Continuing Claims, est. 1.73m, prior 1.75m
  • 8:30am: Jan. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 200,000, prior 207,000

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Today I have a first. I have two MRI scans. A fresh one on my back and one on my right knee which gave way as I was rehabbing (squats and lunges) the left knee after recent surgery. In my fifth decade of playing sport averagely, but vigorously, it’s all catching up with me very quickly. I’ve exhausted all strengthening exercise routines and injections on my back and the pain gets worse. My surgeon does not want to operate but we will see if he changes his mind after today. If he says play less golf I will walk out mid-meeting even if he may be medically correct. In contrast my knee surgeon is an avid skier and he keeps on doing things to prolong my skiing career even though I’ve said to him that I just really care about golf. So I’ll soon be looking for an avid golfer who just happens to be a back surgeon.

Talking of confirmation bias, if you did an MRI scan of US inflation yesterday you’d find things to support both sides of the debate which is surprising when it hit 7% YoY and the highest since 1982 when Fed Funds were more than 13% rather than close to zero as they are today. So a slightly different real rate to back then. In fact the real rate is through any level seen in the 1970s and is only comparable to WWII levels. Back to CPI and the YoY number was in line with expectations, but core and MoM figures were all a bit firmer than expected. However, the beats were small enough that the data didn’t significantly change the outlook for monetary policy, with Fed funds futures still pricing in an 89% chance of a March hike, which is roughly around where it’d been over the preceding days.

Looking at the details of the release, (our US econ team’s full wrap here) headline month-on-month number came in at +0.5% in December (vs. +0.4% expected), which is the 8thtime in the last 10 months that the print has come in above the consensus expectations on Bloomberg. However, that does still mark a deceleration from the +0.9% and +0.8% monthly growth in October and November respectively. The core CPI reading was also a touch stronger than anticipated, with the monthly print at +0.6% (vs. +0.5% expected), thus sending the annual core CPI measure up to +5.5% (vs. +5.4% expected) and its highest since 1991. Diving into some of the key sub-components, Covid-era favorite used cars and trucks grew +3.5% MoM. More concerning for policymakers, is the continued growth in persistent measures such as shelter, with primary and owners’ equivalent rent both increasing +0.4% MoM. If you were expecting Omicron to slow down American holiday travel, think again, lodging away from home and airfares both posted large increases, +1.2% and +2.7%, respectively. Most forecasters think the peak for inflation is sometime soon, but the pace of the glide path is open to debate. This is a topic we covered in yesterday’s CoTD, found here.

Even though Treasuries had rallied strongly in the immediate aftermath of the report, with the 10yr yield falling back to 1.709% at the intraday low, yields pared back those losses to end the session basically unchanged at 1.74% (+0.7bps). CPI was expected to be bad and therefore the ability to shock was relatively low.

However this tame overall move masked a divergence between a sharp bounceback in the 10yr real yield (+7.5bps) and a decline in inflation breakevens (-7.5bps) as the worst fears from the report weren’t realised. Over in Europe however, there was a more sustained rally, with yields on 10yr bunds down -3.2bps to -0.06%, having come very close in recent days to moving back into positive territory for the first time since May 2019. Furthermore, there was a continued divergence between the two regions at the front end of the curve, with the gap between 2yr yields on Treasuries and bunds widening to 153bps yesterday, which is the biggest since the pandemic began.

Staying with bonds, our US econ and Rates strategy team published a joint piece last night outlining their early expectations for QT, here.

For equities, the lack of an inflation surprise meant that they got a continued reprieve following last week’s selloff, with the S&P 500 (+0.28%) advancing for a 2nd day running for the first time this year, whilst in Europe the STOXX 600 (+0.65%) posted an even stronger advance. Megacap tech stocks were a noticeable outperformer, with the FANG+ index gaining +1.25%, whilst in Europe the STOXX Banks index (+1.22%) hit a fresh 3-year high.

On the topic of inflationary pressures, one asset that continued its upward march was oil yesterday, with Brent Crude (+1.13%), just missing its first close above $85/bbl since October yesterday. Bear in mind it was only 6 weeks earlier that Brent hit its post-Omicron closing low, just beneath $69/bbl, so it’s now up by more than $16/bbl over that period. WTI (+1.75%) saw a similar increase yesterday, which won’t be welcome news to those who’d hoped the recent decline in energy prices late last year would offer some relief on the inflation front. That said, WTI oil is making a great case to be the top-performing major asset for a second year running at the minute, having advanced by over +10% since the start of the year..

This morning, Asian markets are mostly trading lower. The Nikkei (-0.91%) is leading losses in the region, followed by the CSI (-0.55%), Shanghai Composite (-0.31% ) and Kospi (-0.19%). Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index (+0.07%) is swinging between gains and losses. In stock news, Cruise operator Genting Hong Kong Ltd nosedived by a record 56%, after it resumed trading today following last week’s suspension as the company indicated the possibility of default. Looking forward, US equity futures are indicating a weak start with the S&P 500 (-0.15%), Nasdaq (-0.26%) and Dow Jones (-0.11%) contracts trading in the red.

On the Covid front, there was further good news from the UK as the latest wave showed further signs of ebbing. For the UK as a whole, the total number of reported cases over the last 7 days is now down -19% compared with the previous 7 day period, whilst in England the number of Covid patients in a mechanical ventilation bed has dropped to its lowest in almost 3 months, before we’d even heard of the Omicron variant.

For those following credit, our colleagues in the European Leveraged Finance Research team have just published their quarterly top trade ideas. You can find the report here.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, Euro Area industrial production grew by +2.3% in November (vs. +0.3% expected), although the October reading was revised down to show a -1.3% contraction.

To the day ahead now, and one of the highlights will be Fed Governor Brainard’s nomination hearing at the Senate Banking committee to become Fed Vice Chair. Other central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barkin and Evans, ECB Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Elderson, along with the BoE’s Mann. Separately, data releases from the US include December’s PPI and the weekly initial jobless claims, whilst there’s also Italy’s industrial production for November.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.17 PTS OR 1.17%      //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 27.60 PTS OR 0.11% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 276.53 PTS OR 0.96%      //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .45%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3608    /Oil UP TO 82.22 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 84.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  MOSTLY GREEN     //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN  AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3608. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3633: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN AND OFF SHORE TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///SOUTH KOREA

END

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/MAD COW//CANADA

China bans purchases of beef from Canada because of an Alberta case of BSE

(zerohedge)

Mad Cow Disease Case Prompts China To Halt Canadian Beef Imports

WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 08:40 PM

China, South Korea, and the Philippines have suspended imports of Canadian beef following a case of mad cow disease, according to Bloomberg

The Canadian Cattlemen’s Association reported Tuesday that China and the other Asian countries decided to halt beef imports after one “atypical” bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) case was discovered in an Alberta farm last month. BSE, also known as mad cow disease, is a deadly neurodegenerative disease of cattle that spreads to humans through diseased meat (though atypical BSE poses no health risk to humans). 

Canadian Food Inspection Agency said the cow was euthanized on the spot, and there appears to be no evidence as of yet that atypical BSE has spread. 

“I wouldn’t say it’s surprising, though we were hoping this wouldn’t happen,” said Dennis Laycraft, the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association executive director. 

“We’re hopeful that these will be very short in duration, but it’s a foreign regulator that you’re dealing with, in different time zones and different languages,” Laycraft said. 

China imports approximately $170 million of Canadian beef annually, making it the third-largest global market. South Korea imports $90 million per year and the Philippines around $13 million. 

The detection of atypical BSE is the first time in six years. In the US, BSE was detected as recently as 2018. 

In September, several US trade groups warned about BSE cases in Brazil. For three months, China and the Philippines suspended beef imports from the South American country. 

The Canadian beef industry could be in for a world of hurt as some of its top exporting markets impose trading bans. A supply glut may build, and beef prices may sink on the prospects there’s no timeline on when Asian markets will reopen. 

end

CHINA

An inside look at the lockdown inside Xi’an

/Hao//(EpochTimes)

China Seals People’s Doors, Xi’an Residents Cry For Food

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 11:00 PM

By Nicole Hao of the Epoch Times,

The Chinese regime sealed residents’ homes in Xi’an on Jan. 8, but didn’t arrange for a reliable food supply, residents say. After being locked down for almost three weeks, they are lacking in food and on the edge of mental breakdown.Staff members wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) spray disinfectant outside a shopping mall in Xi’an, China

The Chinese regime has claimed the COVID-19 outbreak in Xi’an has been under control since Jan. 5. However, the regime upgraded the control measures and Xi’an residents still can’t leave their homes even on Jan. 11.

“I had never been diagnosed with COVID-19. Why did they seal my door?” Cai Jiaying (pseudonym), a resident at Rongshang Compound, Changyanbao Community, Yanta district in Xi’an, told the Chinese-language edition of The Epoch Times on Jan. 9. “Our residential compound has been locked down for 21 days. … In the beginning [of the lockdown], I consoled myself. I was disappointed days later, and then felt hopeless and despair. This morning, I went crazy.”

Cai said that she and her husband had only bought a little food successfully in the past three weeks, and didn’t know when they could buy some more.

“I’m worried that we won’t have anything to eat soon. We don’t dare to fill our stomachs. We go to bed after a meal at 3:00 to 4:00 p.m. every afternoon. We sleep more to save food,” Cai said. She said that the family only had a small bowl of rice, 11 pounds of wheat flour, seven cups of instant noodles, one bamboo shoot, and a little bit of meat at home. “The food can feed us for at most one week.”

Other Xi’an residents told The Epoch Times similar stories in phone interviews.

Staff members wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) spray disinfectant outside a shopping mall in Xi’an, China, on Jan. 11, 2022.

Continued Lockdown

On Jan. 11, Xi’an authorities announced that nine communities in the city were downgraded to low-risk regions where people have few chances to contact COVID-19 patients, and 44 others still remained high-risk or medium-risk regions.

The regime didn’t mention how many communities there were in the city, nor details of the lockdown policies in different risk regions.

On Jan. 10, local authorities announced another standard to divide the city, called “Closed Zone,” “Controlled Zone,” and “Prevention Zone.” In general, residents in closed zones aren’t allowed to leave their homes no matter how healthy they are or how urgent their need to go out.

The regime said that zones could be downgraded if no resident in the zone was infected with the CCP virus or had contact with COVID-19 patients in the past 14 days, and all residents tested negative within 48 hours.Staff members wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) spray disinfectant outside a shopping mall in Xi’an, China, on Jan. 11, 2022. 

Livelihood in Xi’an

Being locked down at home or in a dorm, Xi’an residents are suffering.

“We don’t know how to obtain food [after the regime sealed our home’s door]. We only have a few cabbage leaves at home,” Xu Qianru (pseudonym), a resident at Changyanbao community in Yanta district told the Chinese-language edition of The Epoch Times on Jan. 9. “We kept on calling the residential compound’s management company, but nobody answered the phone.”

Xu’s apartment was sealed by the management company on the evening of Jan. 8. She learned from her neighbors that all apartments in the compound were sealed. “Several thousand families in our compound are sealed at home like us … Our lives are really difficult,” Xu added.

“We had eaten all our stock [in the past weeks during the lockdown], and we can’t buy anything. Do you [Xi’an officials] want the over ten thousand residents [in the compound] to die of starvation?” Yang Hai, a resident of Hengdacheng at Dazhai road, Yanta district, complained in a video posted on social media platforms on Jan. 8.

The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, commonly known as novel coronavirus, is the virus that causes the disease COVID-19.

Yang shared photos of the residential compound, which showed that the regime locked the doors of the residential unit by using iron wires and sealed the apartment doors by using paper.

“Do you [officials] treat us, the people, like animals?” Yang criticized. “We can’t receive any materials [food] after the doors are sealed!”

College students in Xi’an have been locked down in dorms since late December last year, and aren’t allowed to leave the building, not to mention go home even though some of their homes are in the city.

“We have six ladies sharing one room … We stay in our twin-over-twin bunk beds for most of the time during the day,” Fu Hua (pseudonym) told the Chinese-language edition of The Epoch Times on Jan. 8. “We study different majors and have different class schedules. [Since the lockdown began,] we take online classes at the dorm, and we can’t avoid interfering with each other.”

Fu said that she felt frustrated about the lockdown. She would even prefer to be sent to a quarantine center for 14 days if the regime would allow her to go home after the quarantine.

END

INSIDE TIANJIN//COVID

CCP making a big mistake on their handling of the Omicron virus

(zerohedge)

Tianjin Tightens “COVID Zero” Restrictions As Volkswagen Closes Plants

 THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 07:13 AM

The western press has finally caught on to the fact that the CCP is determined to maintain its “Zero COVID” approach to combating the virus that China first unleashed upon the world, even if that means another collapse in trade supply chains and logistics.

As the Chinese wait to see whether the government will impose full lockdown restrictions on the port city of Tianjin (which is roughly 100 km from Beijing, where the Winter Olympics are set to begin early next month), more restrictions on travel have just been imposed on the city.

Bloomberg reports that Tianjin will halt all inbound and outbound buses and taxis as it scrambles to suppress the latest COVID outbreak now that cases of the omicron variant have been confirmed.

Tianjin reported 46 local COVID cases on Wednesday; the city confirmed fewer than 40 cases the day prior.

Meanwhile, the situation in Xi’an – the city of 13MM that has been locked down for 3 weeks now – is going from desperate to… even more desperate.

As the Epoch Times reported earlier, the government in Xi’an has begun literally sealing people’s doors shut as it continues to try and crack down on the virus. Restrictions have intensified despite the fact that the government insisted that the situation was “under control” earlier this month.

And while the government continues to insist that its efforts are having no impact on the economy, Reuters reported Thursday that Volkswagen’s China unit has temporarily shut a plant it runs with its local partner, FAW Group, in Tianjin, along with a factory for producing components that it also runs in the area.

A VW spokesperson told Reuters that the closure was due to a shortage of work-eligible employees.

“Due to the recent COVID-19 outbreaks both the FAW-VW vehicle plant and VW Automatic Transmission Tianjin component factory have been shut down since Monday,” a spokesperson told Reuters.

“Both plants have conducted COVID -19 testing twice for all employees this week and are waiting for the results. We hope to resume production very soon and catch up with lost production. The top priority remains the health and well-being of our employees.”

More than 20MM people are locked down across China as Beijing works to suppress what has become China’s  most widespread outbreak of COVID since the original wave first emerged in Wuhan

END

.

CHINA/THIS AFTERNOON/LOCKDOWN ON  PORTS:

This is a very important read:  the world is heading for the mother of all supply chain shocks

(zerohedge)

Global Economy Heading For “Mother Of All” Supply Chain Shocks As China Locks Down Ports

 THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 01:06 PM

Over the past month, as Wall Street turned increasingly optimistic on US growth alongside the Fed, with consensus (shaped by the Fed’s leaks and jawboning) now virtually certain of a March rate hike, we have been repeatedly warning that after a huge policy error in 2021 when the Fed erroneously said that inflation is “transitory” (it wasn’t), the central bank is on pace to make another just as big policy mistake in 2022 by hiking as many as 4 times and also running off its massive balance sheet… right into a global growth slowdown.

And, as we have also discussed in recent weeks, one place where this growth slowdown is emerging – besides the upcoming deterioration in US consumption where spending is now being funded to record rates by credit cards before it encounters a troubling air pocket – is China and its “covid-zero” policy in general, and its covid-locked down ports in particular.

But what until recently was a minority view confined to our modest website, has since expanded and as Bloomberg writes overnight, the effects of restrictions in China as the country maintains its Covid-zero policy “are starting to hit supply chains in the region.” As a result of the slow movement of goods through some of the country’s busiest and most important ports means shippers are now diverting to Shanghai, causing the types of knock-on delays at the world’s biggest container port that led to massive congestion bottlnecks last summer that eventually translated into a record number of container ships waiting off the coast of California, a glut that hasn’t been cleared to this day.

With sailing schedules already facing delays of about a week, freight forwarders warn of the impact on already back-logged gateways in Europe and the US and is also why HSBC economists are warning that the world economy could be headed for the “mother of all” supply chain shocks if the highly infectious omicron variant which is already swamping much of the global economy spreads across Asia, especially China, at which point disruption to manufacturing will be inevitable.

“Temporary, one would hope, but hugely disruptive all the same” in the next few months, they wrote in a research note this week first noted by Bloomberg.

For those who have forgotten last year’s global shockwave when China locked down its ports for several days, a quick reminder: it led to an unprecedented hiccup in global logistics and shipping which hasn’t been resolved to this day. That’s because China is the world’s biggest trading nation and its ability to keep its factories humming through the pandemic has been crucial for global supply chains.

While the outbreak of omicron in China has been small compared to other nations (if one believes China’s official data, which is a big if) authorities are taking no chances, especially with China’s continued “zero-covid” policy. In recent weeks scattered infections of both the delta and omicron variants have already triggered shutdowns to clothing factories and gas deliveries around one of China’s biggest seaports in Ningbo, disruptions at computer chip manufacturers in the locked-down city of Xi’an, and a second city-wide lockdown in Henan province Tuesday.

Below is a brief timeline of the most recent events courtesy of Deutsche Bank:

  • China’s first Omicron outbreak was detected in the city of Tianjin over the weekend. On the morning of Jan 8, two patients in Tianjin who actively sought medical treatment were confirmed as being infected with the Omicron variant. The local government immediately locked down certain districts, restricted travel, and conducted large-scale screening. A total of 41 positive cases have been reported as of the morning of Jan 11.
  • The source of the local cases in Tianjin is still unknown, and community transmission is possible, according to local disease control officials. All previous local Omicron cases in Tianjin belonged to the same transmission chain. However, the above cases cannot be confirmed to be in the same transmission chain as the sequences of the imported cases of the Omicron variant that have been found in Tianjin. The early confirmed cases do not have any travel history outside Tianjin either. The specific source of the local cases found in Tianjin is still unknown at this time.
  • More alarmingly, the same Omicron virus strain has already spread to outside Tianjin. Two positive cases were found in Anyang, Henan on Jan 8, and were later confirmed to be the same Omicron variant found in Tianjin. Through contact tracing and gene sequencing, the source was identified as a college student who returned to Anyang from Tianjin on December 28, 2021, and who did not show any symptoms. 81 cases have since been confirmed in Anyang over the past few days. This suggests that (1) the Omicron virus may have been transmitted in Tianjin for almost 2 weeks; and (2) other travelers might have already carried the Omicron virus from Tianjin to elsewhere in China.

Looking at the recent data, China’s Covid outbreak this winter could be worse than in the previous winter – as shown in the chart below more provinces have detected Covid outbreaks this winter. Entering Q4, there are 12 provinces which have found more than 19 local cases in the past 14 days. More significantly, the total number of new cases in the past 14 days in Shann’xi has already exceeded 1500, which is a record high, except for in Hubei when Covid first occurred in early 2020, and this has happened despite China now having very high vaccination rates and strict regulations such as lockdowns. In addition, comparing the differences between months near Chinese New Year in 2021 and 2022, not only have the number of news cases been larger this year, the provinces hit by Covid outbreaks this year also tend to have higher GDP and population density.

As Bloomberg adds, Henan and Guangdong, which also has an outbreak, are centers of electronics production. If cases continue rising there, it could impact the supply of iPhones and other smartphones.

This also brings us to what Bloomberg calls the paradox of China’s aggressive “Covid-zero” strategy: while on one hand it helps contain the virus spread, to do so usually requires significant disruption or lockdowns as authorities limit the movement of people. The repeated mandatory testing of whole cities interrupts businessess and production, although nothing to the extent seen in places like the US, where the omicron wave caused an estimated 5 million people to stay home sick last week, leading to further economic slowdown (as discussed in “A March Rate Hike? Not So Fast“)

That risk of disruption for factories is already prompting companies to spread their risk by ensuring they have alternative production facilities, Stephanie Krishnan, a supply chain expert at IDC in Singapore, told Bloomberg.

“We are starting to see companies mitigating risk, seeing where they can increase capabilities for production of different products in different factories so they can shift that around,” she said.

Echoing what we said last night in “New Year Brings New All-Time High For Shipping’s Epic Traffic Jam“, Krishnan doesn’t see an end to the global supply crunch anytime soon and cautions it could take several years for the snarls to unwind. It’s a sobering outlook to start a year that many had hoped would mark the beginning of the end of the Big Crunch which dogged producers and consumers through much of last year.

Clearly what happens next is critical, and how China’s control of the virus plays out will ultimately be crucial, said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre. Those companies whose supply chains are fully located inside China may be insulated by the country’s mitigation strategy. But that won’t apply to everyone, she said.

“Lots of products in supply chains come from outside China,” Elms said. “Given challenges elsewhere, even zero Covid doesn’t solve all the issues of disruption.”

* * *

In its assessment of next steps, Deutsche Bank expects the government will try to contain the Omicron outbreak with more lockdowns and quarantines rather than taking a “live with Covid” approach. This will pose downside risks to near-term growth. The impact on consumption could be significant, although probably not as large as what happened in 2020.

While Omicron is far less deadly than other Covid variants, it is still deadly enough to cause healthcare service shortages in China, at least in some regions. Vaccination has proven to be ineffective in preventing Omicron from spreading, and while it offers protection against hospitalization, China still has some 20% of the population who are not vaccinated and will face serious health risks if Omicron becomes widespread. As such, DB says that a containment approach is still the government’s optimal choice for this winter regardless of how fast Omicron spreads in the next few weeks. It will be good news if travel restrictions, lockdowns and large-scale testing and contact tracing work in containing the outbreak. Even if outbreaks cannot be contained in some regions, these measures will still be considered necessary in flattening the curve and preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed nationwide.

What is much more important for the US, global capital markets and the Fed’s monetary policy – which has assumed much stronger growth in 2022 – is that China’s Omicron outbreaks are significant downside risks for near-term consumption demand. Restrictions will likely be imposed nationwide to reduce travel before the Chinese New Year and encourage people to stay where they are. Cities where new cases were found will reimpose lockdowns and social distancing measures. The impact in each city will depend on local authorities. Experience from the past 2 years was that while some cities (such as Shenzhen and Shanghai) can manage outbreaks in a less disruptive way, other cities (such as Xi’an) have resorted to stricter and larger scale lockdowns, causing severe disruptions to consumption and service sector activities. Businesses such as restaurants, as well as those linked to travel, and leisure & entertainment will suffer from sharp revenue reductions or even temporary shutdowns. This may also cause temporary job and income losses and negatively impact consumer goods purchases. Retail sales growth dropped by 3ppt in Jan-Feb 2021 (in 2-year average terms). Retail sales might weaken again in Jan-Feb 2022, though the YoY growth rate might not drop much owing to the low base in 2021.

Nevertheless, consumption will likely recover rapidly once lockdowns are lifted. Similar to what happened before, such negative shocks will likely be transitory and will be followed by strong recovery once lockdowns are lifted and businesses reopen.

Still, the notorious bull-whip effect will emerge once again, as supply chains once again become stretched, and like in 2021 the question will be how the trade off between rising costs – as goods in transit end up stuck on a ship far longer than expected – and slowing growth will impact the Fed’s view on what the optimal policy response is. While the Fed’s prerogative for now is clearly to contain inflation, the reality is that much of the inflation experienced today is on the supply side, something which Brainard told the Senate in her confirmation hearing the Fed is powerless to address. Meanwhile, if we see a “surprise” drop in growth in the coming months, the Fed will have no choice but to delay or at least stagger its tightening as the last thing the Fed can afford to do is hike into another recession, which will then quickly be followed with even more easing.

END 

China’s Shimao group has defaulted on a loan payment. Robert H describes how this will impact China.

(special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us)

China’s Shimao Group shares slump on missed trust loan payment

Inbox

Robert Hryniak9:02 AM (12 minutes ago)
to

Since the real estate accounts for 80% of internal capital churn in China, one might assume that when their so called strongest developers hit the wall, one should be alarmed as it is likely they will have reboot their entire economy or face a internal value collapse.
They are in deep trouble and that without consideration of flooding or illnesses or other disasters they are covering up. Any investment in china is likely suspect and should be written down in light of realities. This will have a real impact on investments and stock markets and balance sheets in days ahead.
https://china-underground.com/2022/01/07/chinas-shimao-group-shares-slump-on-missed-trust-loan-payment/

end

Extremely important!

(zerohedge)

China Sends A Message With Weakest Yuan Fixing Relative To Expectations In Over A Month

THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 04:40 PM

As we discussed earlier this week, a new conundrum had emerged in the market: instead of rising on good news, and a Fed clearly determined to hike rates, the dollar has been sliding (read our explanation here). But for China, which is now in easing mode, and is increasingly concerned what rate differential will do to the Chinese economy once the Fed begins tightening, the drop in the dollar appears to not be nearly enough and on Thursday, the Chinese central bank set the yuan’s reference rate at the weakest relative to expectations in a month. The PBOC set the daily reference rate at yuan fixing at 6.3542 per dollar, which as shown below was 60 pips weaker-than the average estimate of 6.3482, the biggest discount relative to expectations in over a month.

The spread between the daily yuan fix and expectations is charted below, and it shows that with a handful of exceptions, the yuan has been fixed well below expectations for much of the past 4 months.

“Today’s fixing was weaker than expected, and an indication that the authorities do not want the yuan to strengthen past the 6.35 level yet,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ in Singapore. “However, with China still running large trade surpluses, portfolio inflows strong and the USD now turning lower, it may be difficult for the authorities to prevent the yuan from strengthening anyway.”

Exporters will be more actively converting foreign currency holdings into yuan to pay bonuses and other festival-related spending ahead of Lunar New Year, lending further support to the yuan.

“We have seen large fixing deviations before, and they tend to be a one-off. Tomorrow’s fixing therefore will be closely watched.”

While it is still early to conclude that Beijing is freaking out about a strong yuan, it appears that we start 2022 with an even bigger conundrum. Not only is the dollar losing altitude as the US prepares to hike as much as four times this year, the appreciation pressures behind the yuan remain intense even as China is preparing to ease to stabilize its flailing property developers. Somehow we doubt that this will be the biggest market paradox of what is sure to be a very “interesting” year.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

//UKCOVID/VACCINE

end

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/USA//NATO

One must never poke the bear:

(zerohedge)

Moscow Blasts Senate Bill To Sanction Putin As “Crossing The Line” Amid “Unsuccessful” NATO Talks

THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 11:07 AM

After two days of Russia-NATO talks, the first on Monday in Geneva and the latest Wednesday in Brussels – and with a third being held Thursday in Vienna at the “Organization for Security Co-operation in Europe”, there’s a consensus that no progress has been made, particularly after the US and NATO rejected as “a non-starter” Russia’s central demand that the Western military bloc halt its eastward expansion. 

However, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg strongly suggested that both sides remain open to further talks, with keeping communications frank and open appearing to be the minimal base-line priority at this point. Russia through Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has bluntly described the talks as “unsuccessful” – as quoted by BloombergGetty Images

But Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, who led the Russian delegation for the Brussels talks, appeared to agree that dialogue itself was beneficial in order to air Russia’s position with no ambiguity. “I think that [this meeting] was absolutely essential. Firstly, it was some sort of a shake-up. If the meeting had not taken place, it would have been impossible to bring up these issues in full action,” Grushko said, according to TASS.

Bloomberg notes that Moscow is expecting a written answer from the US-NATO side “in coming days” regarding its security guarantees. To review, Russia’s formal requests are formed around these three core issues

In a broad outline, Russia’s stance boils down to three key points: the pullout of US nuclear weapons from Europe, the termination of the practice of deploying NATO’s conventional forces near Russia’s borders and creating its military infrastructure there and NATO’s official refusal to draw Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance.

So far Washington has been clear in saying it won’t budge on NATO’s “open door policy” – not wanting member states or even potential member states’ policies “dictated” by Russia. The West further fears the Kremlin is using its alleged troop build-up that threatens Ukraine to force its “ultimatums” on Europe.

But the above three core security demands are specific enough to provide ample room for negotiations. On Wednesday there was a reported offer to expand the scope of negotiations, which the Russians rejected

Meanwhile as a fresh Russian sanctions bill is moving through the senate, dubbed the Defending Ukraine Sovereignty Act of 2022 and sponsored by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez, it’s threatening to derail the potential for further talks – which Brussels has expressed a desire for. “There are significant differences between NATO allies and Russia on these issues, and the differences will not be easy to bridge. But it is a positive sign that all NATO allies and Russia sat down around the same table,” NATO Secreteary-General Stoltenberg said Wednesday.https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=true&id=1481574992877957122&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Famid-unsuccessful-nato-talks-moscow-blasts-senate-bill-sanction-putin-crossing-line&sessionId=8de797927178d8b38d4bcdd395ff3b44b651e3aa&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=86e9194f%3A1641882287124&width=550px

Crucially, included in the Senate sanctions bill, which would “trigger mandatory sanctions on Moscow’s banking sector, as well as several military and government officials” in the instance of any Russian military aggression against Ukraine, would be sanctions directly on President Vladimir Putin

Moscow has warned that if Putin is targeted directly, this would be tantamount to a complete “rupture in ties” – the Kremlin’s Peskov said firmly on Thursday. “Introducing sanctions against a head of state is crossing a line and comparable to a rupture of ties.” Additionally Interfax quoted Russia’s foreign ministry as saying the proposed sanctions suggest the United States could be in the midst of a “nervous breakdown”

END

USA embassy in Baghdad under attack

(zerohedge)

US Embassy In Baghdad Under Attack, Defense System Activated: Reports

 THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 12:37 PM

Forces at the US embassy in Baghdad are attempting to intercept what could be rockets or suicide drones with radar-controlled rapid-fire guns, according to the BBC‘s Nafiseh Kohnavard.

Multiple videos surfaced on Twitter around 1200 ET, one by Kohnavard of Counter rocket, artillery, and mortar (CRAM) weapons activated and firing large bursts into the night sky to combat incoming rockets and or suicide drones in the air before they hit the embassy. 

“US embassy’s anti-rocket system CRAM in Baghdad activated a few seconds ago. I heard explosions,” Kohnavard tweeted.

He captured another burst of CRAM firing.

Here is an additional view of the CRAM at work. 

Aurora Intel believes CRAMs were activated due to rocket attacks. 

Insane footage shows one of the rockets exploding in the streets of Baghdad. 

*This story is still developing..

END

This is going nowhere

(DeCamp/AntiWar.com)

Ahead Of Iran Deal Decision, White House To Focus On Blaming Trump

THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 12:05 PM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The Biden administration has had a year to restore the Iran nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA. But as talks to revive the agreement in Vienna are reaching a critical stage, the White House is focusing its messaging on blaming the situation on President TrumpAxios reported Wednesday.

Sources told Axios that the Biden administration expects a decision on the JCPOA to be made in the coming weeks. Either the US and Iran will reach a deal to revive the JCPOA, or the talks will fail, and the US will ramp up the pressure on the Islamic Republic.Anti-US and anti-Israel protests in Iran, 2020. Source: Reuters

Ahead of the decision, the White House plans to emphasize that either way, Trump is to blame for leaving the JCPOA in 2018. “They are going to focus the fire on Trump,” one source said.

The strategy was previewed on Tuesday during a press conference with State Department spokesman Ned Price. “It’s worth spending just a moment on how we got here,” Price said when asked about the Vienna talks.

“It is deeply unfortunate that because of an ill-considered or perhaps unconsidered decision by the previous administration that this administration came into office without these stringent verification and monitoring protocols that were in place,” he added.

While the Biden administration is blaming Trump, at this point, his policies still haven’t been reversed. The Trump administration imposed an enormous number of sanctions on Iran, known as the “maximum pressure campaign.” Almost a year into President Biden’s term, virtually all of those sanctions remain in place, and new ones have been imposed.

The eighth round of the Vienna talks is ongoing. Both sides have said the talks are focused on sanctions relief, and Iran is also seeking guarantees that the US won’t leave the deal again.

During earlier negotiations with the previous Iranian government, Biden wasted an opportunity to salvage the JCPOA by refusing to promise that he would stay in the deal during his term in office.

end

Special thanks to Robert H for sending this  to us.  Robert’s comments precede Craig Roberts commentary    

By Refusing Security to Russia Washington Has Opened the Door to War – PaulCraigRoberts.org

Robert Hryniak3:24 PM (5 minutes ago)
to

On the past, i have written about mile long trains loaded with tanks and other equipment on ready to roll west deep in eastern Russia.

 
“Stratfor, which provides geopolitical intelligence information to corporate clients says that the four armies in Russia’s Eastern Military District are in the process of being moved to the Western front. “
I have also written about how China has sent thousands of troops into Kazakhstan to replace the Russian ones being withdrawn starting tomorrow. The ones that will remain are guarding the bio lab and examining what was being researched. This naturally will be shared with China. Think it was all innocent? 
Other equipment is on the move to strategic locations. Does anyone really think that a Russian missile presence in Cuba will not signal a direct threat? Remembering that China has a naval contingent there so any attempt to remove missiles means removing Russian and Chinese assets. That would mean war with both parties at once. Think Biden can understand that with the fools surrounding him? There is no respect For the American regime in either Russia or China. And this in of itself is dangerous. 


Will nukes be sent to places like Belarus ensuring a shorter strike time on NATO bases? Be certain once Russia moves it will be a major move. Ukraine is a walk in the park for the missiles that will take out the Ukrainians within an hour with no Russian presence on their soil. As i have said before stay away from military bases in countries like Poland or Romania, they will disappear to make a point. Or worse every base in Europe will disappear with certain Russian armor piercing way for cleanup forces. Do not anticipate a occupation as Russia has no desire to control former satellite countries of the Soviet Union. They studied and learnt the lessons of America in Iraq and Afghanistan etc… the same is not true for China who sees itself as a capable occupying force willing to protect its’ assets in Europe at gunpoint if needed. Did anyone bother to think this through? Do not think they will give easily on Polish investment etc. 


I note that no one wants to talk about undersea cables. Did you know that a Norwegian cable to a satellite uplink was cut the other day? Who done that is an interesting question. Yes, sanctions may include a serving of swift. Has anyone considered what happens if both Atlantic and Pacific cables are cut rendering no bank communications? How long will banks last if settlements cannot happen? Minutes or hours makes no difference, they will go down. Fancy FED swaps to keep European banks like Deutsche alive will crater quickly. Do not think the port closures in China are entirely virus driven; supply chains problems just got bigger.

 
We are watching in slow motion a walk to war which is avoidable for a time. But this is a short time. And as all sides inch towards a confrontation mistakes or miscalculations will arise.
If traveling to Europe anytime soon be aware of what is occurring.

 
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/01/13/by-refusing-security-to-russia-washington-has-opened-the-door-to-war-2/

end

RUSSIA, VENEZUELA, CUBA/USA

Russia is getting quite angry. You do not poke the bear.

(zerohedge)

Russia May Deploy Troops To Venezuela, Cuba If Tensions With US Continue To Rise

 THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 11:45 AM

Amid stalled talks between Russia and NATO over what is effectively a novel split of Europe into geopolitical sphere of influence, Russia has decided to take the show on the road and demonstrate to the US what it feels like to be surrounded by military bases along your borders, and on Thursday, after saying talks with the U.S. over the security situation in Ukraine had stalled, Russia’s deputy foreign minister suggested that Moscow could dispatch a military deployment to Venezuela and Cuba, as the Kremlin seeks to pressure Washington to respond to its demands to halt Western military activity that it says threatens Russia.

Quoted by the WSJ, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow couldn’t exclude dispatching “military infrastructure” to Venezuela or Cuba if tensions with Washington, which have escalated in recent weeks over a huge buildup of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border prompting some to suggest that the odds of a war in Europe are now the highest in decades, continue to rise.

“I don’t want to confirm anything, I will not rule out anything…Depends on the actions of our American colleagues,” Ryabkov told privately owned Russian-language television network RTVi in an interview Thursday in Moscow.

Vladimir Putin “has repeatedly spoken out, including on this topic, about what could be the measures taken by the Russian navy if things go completely in the direction of provoking Russia and further increasing military pressure on us,” Rybakov said,adding that Russia didn’t want to see that outcome, but “the diplomats must come to an agreement.”

Last month, Ryabkov also told reporters that he couldn’t exclude the possibility that relations between Russia and the U.S. could end up in a situation similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

He also told the Russian TV station that he sees no immediate grounds for fresh talks with the U.S., after several rounds of negotiations this week yielded little progress in defusing the crisis in Ukraine.

The ominous remarks followed several rounds of futile talks this week between the West and Russia over the military buildup on the border with Ukraine. Moscow has sent more than 100,000 troops there, in response to what it says is a threat to its security from NATO states.

On Thursday, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a 57-country grouping that helped to foster peace during the Cold War, discussed the Ukraine situation. The talks followed a U.S.-Russia meeting in Geneva on Monday and a NATO-Russia gathering in Brussels Wednesday. However, those talks also failed to resolve the crisis and the prospects for more talks have remained uncertain. Ukraine was the focus of the talks this week but wasn’t present at the negotiations in Geneva or Brussels. Thursday’s meeting in Vienna gave Kyiv a seat at the table

On Thursday, Rybakov appeared to rule out further negotiations, if Russia’s demands aren’t met.

“I am always a supporter of dialogue,” Ryabkov told RTVi, but cautioned that if negotiations end with NATO’s refusal to stop expanding this would be “to a certain extent, a dead end or a difference in approaches. I see no reason to sit down in the coming days, to gather again and start these same discussions,” he said.

Meanwhile, Russia’s representative to the OSCE, Alexander Lukashevic, said that this week’s discussions had been “really disappointing,” with the U.S., NATO and other OSCE countries not providing the “very substantial, in-depth” response to Russia’s proposals that Moscow had expected. However, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, appeared to leave the door open to further talks. He said Thursday that Moscow was expecting the U.S. and NATO to respond in writing to the Russian security proposals soon.

“We still hope that the promises made in Geneva and Brussels will be kept, this is the promise to put U.S. and NATO proposals on paper,” he said.

Among its demands, Moscow wants changes to Western security arrangements linked to NATO and has expressed alarm at the prospect that former Soviet republics such as Ukraine could join NATO (hardly new – Russia has made it clear for much of the past two decades that Ukraine in NATO is unacceptable) while calling for the alliance halt its eastern expansion, demands that Western officials have rejected.

Neither the NATO meeting, which was between a Russian delegation and representatives of the 30 NATO members, nor the U.S.-Russia meeting in Geneva, reached a breakthrough in the impasse over Ukraine.

US officials say their offer of talks on military and other security issues at the OSCE is part of the clear choice they are offering Putin: On one hand, a Russian invasion of Ukraine would trigger unprecedented sanctions from the West. On the other, bilateral talks between Washington and Moscow, NATO discussions and consultations at the OSCE together offer ways out of a crisis.

“We can talk about things like military transparency, we can talk about conventional forces…We can talk about confidence building, about de-escalating tensions on the ground,” said a senior State Department official.

“So yes, we are ready to get to work. But there’s a lot of questions about whether Russia is prepared to do that.”

Russia has also demanded that NATO scale back its military activities in its members that used to be part of the former Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact, such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, the lead U.S. negotiator with Russia on Ukraine, has said Washington is open for discussions on the placement of missiles in Europe, reciprocal steps on the size and scope of military exercises and transparency around military steps. The OSCE. which has helped keep the peace in Europe since its founding in the 1970s, is the only security-focused forum in which the key players in the current crisis—Russia, Ukraine, the U.S. and the Europeans—all have a seat at the table.

Meanwhile, after ignoring the growing geopolitical tension, the market is starting to pay attention and Russian CDS have blown out in recent days, if still far well below wides hit in march of 2020.

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE

Please read this so that you understand how the virus infects us

(zerohedge)

COVID’s Ability-To-Infect Plunges 90% After 20 Minutes In The Air; New Study Shows

WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 07:20 PM

One recent study found that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID and its many variants, actually isn’t as infectious as “the science” – and, more importantly, the government authorities like Dr. Anthony Fauci – would like the public to believe.

Offering yet another example of how lingering in enclosed spaces doesn’t dramatically increase an individual’s risk of contracting COVID, Coronavirus loses 90% of its ability to infect us within 20 minutes of becoming airborne – with most of the loss occurring within the first five minutes, the world’s first simulations of how the virus survives in exhaled air suggest.

Professor Jonathan Reid, director of the University of Bristol’s Aerosol Research Center and the lead author of this study, explained why lingering in poorly ventilated spaces isn’t as risky as scientists would have us believe.

Most of this decline in viral infectiousness was gleaned from a study whose authors described it as the world’s first simulations of how the virus survives in exhaled air suggest.

Interestingly, this means that ventilation, once thought to be the most effective way to ignore the physical distancing and mask-wearing likely to be the most effective means of preventing infection. Ventilation, though still worthwhile, is likely to have a lesser impact.

“People have been focused on poorly ventilated spaces and thinking about airborne transmission over metres or across a room. I’m not saying that doesn’t happen, but I think still the greatest risk of exposure is when you’re close to someone,” Dr. Reid said. “When you move further away, not only is the aerosol diluted down, there’s also less infectious virus because the virus has lost infectivity [as a result of time].”

This latest study completely contradicts previous research conducted by scientists in the US, which purported to show that particles containing the virus that causes COVID could still be found lingering in the air.

Here’s more from the Guardian and Dr. Reid.

Until now, our assumptions about how long the virus survives in tiny airborne droplets have been based on studies that involved spraying virus into sealed vessels called Goldberg drums, which rotate to keep the droplets airborne. Using this method, US researchers found that infectious virus could still be detected after three hours. Yet such experiments do not accurately replicate what happens when we cough or breathe. Instead, researchers from the University of Bristol developed apparatus that allowed them to generate any number of tiny, virus-containing particles and gently levitate them between two electric rings for anywhere between five seconds to 20 minutes, while tightly controlling the temperature, humidity and UV light intensity of their surroundings. “This is the first time anyone has been able to actually simulate what happens to the aerosol during the exhalation process,” Reid said.

Here’s an illustration courtesy of the Guardian purporting to show how the experiment worked.

Source: the Guardian

Another iconoclastic finding from the study: the temperature of the air made no difference to viral infectivity, contradicting the widely held belief that viral transmission is lower at higher temperatures. This would seem to contradict the seasonality of the virus, a pattern that has held for the last two winters.

The study hasn’t yet been peer reviewed, but we imagine scientists will be quick to scrutinize its findings – particularly the findings that contradict the research conducted by other research.

END

QUEBEC,CANADA

Idiots in Quebec will be the first to impose a steep health tax for unvaxxed citizens

(zerohedge)

Quebec Government Becomes World’s 1st To Impose Steep “Health Tax” For Unvaxxed Citizens

WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 05:20 PM

It seems that throughout the pandemic the English-speaking countries of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have been in competition to see which respective government can impose the most restrictive, liberty-suffocating Covid measures on its population – all ironically in the name of “health” and “public safety”. Anyone with friends or family in major cities of Canada, for example, might be used to picking up the phone and hearing stories of Canadians having to sneak out of their homes in the dead of night just to visit in-laws or grandparents under cover of darkness, on fear of getting ticketed by authorities for a lockdown violation. And recall, as another example among a seeming myriad of absurdities, that New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern less than two months ago actually addressed whether citizens were allowed to use the restroom in the homes of friends or neighbors.

As we’ve said over and over, just when you think Covid-lunacy has reached its peak… enter a new insane policy cooked up by a neurotic and despotic government somewhere, typically in the West. And of course the latest is out of Canada: “The Canadian province of Quebec will charge a health tax to residents who are not vaccinated against Covid-19,” BBC reports. Image: Canadian Armed Forces, Twitter

Ostensibly this is health authorities’ “response” to the soaring case numbers, which of course begs the question: why is highly-vaxxed Canada seeing record Covid-related deaths and a bump in confirmed infections in the first place? Apparently the answer is that when the vaccine is in doubt, double-down: More vaccinesmore regulations, take away more freedoms.

The Brave New World/1984/Animal Farm/Hunger Games [insert any dystopian book title here] “health tax” will be the first of its kind in the nation, or we might add anywhere in the world – given authorities vow the monetary penalty will be steep and “significant” –  and of course Quebec officials are positively boasting about this fact: “On Tuesday, the premier announced that it would be the first in the nation to financially penalize the unvaccinated.” They are calling ita “health contribution” tax.

But the BBC follows by stating another fact: “Only about 12.8% of Quebec residents are not vaccinated, but they make up nearly a third of all hospital cases,” and more: “According to federal data, just over 85% of Quebec residents had received at least one vaccine dose by 1 January.”

Put another way, about two-thirds of all hospital cases in Quebec are individuals who have been vaccinated. Ah yes, time to target the unvaxxed…

Speaking of popular fiction and dystopian terminology, Legault’s announcement sounded like he’s looking for tributes à la Hunger Games…per the BBC:

Premier Francois Legault said during a news conference that people who have not received their first dose of vaccine will have to pay a “contribution”.

The fee has not yet been decided, but will be “significant”, he said.

“I think right now it’s a question of fairness for the 90% of the population who made some sacrifices,” Mr Legault said. “I think we owe them this kind of measure.”

…a “contribution” for the sake of those who made “sacrifices”.

This as Montreal hospitals at the start of the week were said to be nearing capacity, and as stringent measures have already been imposed, such as a new curfew (for the second time since the start of the pandemic), which runs from 10pm to 5am each day, encompassing all activities with the exception of “essential workers”. 

Prior to the announcement of new “health tax” – which is likely be paid possibly weekly or monthly, though the precise details were not immediately stipulated, in the 24 hours prior there were a recorded 62 deaths attributed to Covid-19.

But again, raising the question of the real efficacy of the vaccines, BBC underscores that “The daily figure represents a similar rate to January 2021, before widespread vaccinations had begun in the province.”

end

BULGARIA/VACCINE MANDATE PROTEST

Protests in Sofia as citizens demand that the government walk back new COVID related restrictions. The country had a surge of cases, all Omicron 

(zerohedge)

Bulgarians Storm Parliament To Protest COVID “Green” Pass

 THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 02:45 AM

The latest example of public unrest triggered by new government-imposed restrictions unfolded Wednesday in Sofia, the capital of Bulgaria, as thousands of protesters gathered in front of the Parliament building to demand that the government walk back new COVID-related restrictions.

During the demonstration, protesters reportedly tried to storm the the Bulgarian parliament building. They insisted that lawmakers abandon a “mandatory” health pass. Protesters, many of whom traveled via bus for the rally, pushed back a police cordon around Parliament until they reached the front doors of the building.

Footage of the rally circulated on Twitter:

The crowd stopped just short of breaking in before demanding that lawmakers come outside to hear their demands while waving national flags (as well as flags of the ultra-nationalist Revival party

“I do not approve of the green certificates. I do not approve that the children are being stopped from attending classes. I do not see the logic of these things,” 39-year old engineer Asparuh Mitov told Reuters at the start of the rally.

Bulgarians have to wear masks indoors and on public transport and show a health pass, given to people who are vaccinated, recovered or who have tested negative for the virus, to get into restaurants, cafes and shopping malls and gyms. The pass is similar to the “green” pass being used in nearby Italy.

As the least vaccinated country in the EU, Bulgaria reported a record number of new infections on Wednesday, a surge that scientists said was partly due to omicron. The country reported more than 7K new confirmed cases over the 24 hours to Wednesday.

Source: Worldometer

Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, who took office last month and pledged to increase the rate vaccinations, told a local TV channel that he regretted he could not meet with the protesters, but was ready to do so on Friday, when he will be finished quarantining after a recent COVID exposure. Petkov, President Rumen Radev and senior ministers went into self-isolation after a participant at a security meeting they attended on Monday tested positive for the coronavirus.

end

Interesting….

Cannabinoids Block Cellular Entry of SARS-CoV-2 and the Emerging Variants

Inbox

Chris Powell9:01 AM (4 minutes ago)
to me

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35007072/

—–

VACCINE IMPACT

Vaccine Impact


Thousands of Miscarriages Following COVID-19 Injections Reported in VAERS are Being Censored as an Entire Generation is Being SterilizedJanuary 12, 2022 4:18 pmNow that we have a full year of injecting people with an experimental gene altering shot for COVID-19, we can conclusively state that this is most definitely a weapon of mass destruction, as it not only kills and cripples people in the present, but it destroys unborn children in the womb as well, and is most likely making an entire generation of child-bearing aged females infertile. And the facts that support this statement are found in the government’s own database of Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS), as incomplete as that data set is. Through December 31, 2021, there are 3,147 fetal deaths recorded following the COVID-19 shots into pregnant women, or into women of child-bearing age who became pregnant shortly after receiving one of the experimental COVID-19 injections (such as ectopic pregnancies). Using the under-reporting multiplier of 41X, the truer number of fetal deaths following COVID-19 injections becomes 129,027 fetal deaths. That’s a 3,834% increase in fetal deaths compared to fetal deaths following FDA-approved vaccines for the previous 31 years, using just the government data reported in VAERS. And if someone like myself just sitting at home behind a computer searching the U.S. Government’s VAERS database can see this, you can be sure that all the scientists and doctors who work for the government that also have access to this data see it too. Stop calling this a “conspiracy theory” and wake up! This is population reduction planning. This is genocide. These are crimes against humanity. THIS IS PURE EVIL!Read More…The Real Revolution Is Underway But Nobody Recognizes ItJanuary 12, 2022 4:32 pmThe general assumption is that revolutions are political. The revolution some foresee in the U.S. is the classic armed insurrection, or a coup or the fragmentation of the nation as states or regions declare their independence from the federal government. By focusing on the compelling drama of political upheaval we’re missing the real revolution, which is social and economic: the Great Resignation, a global movement which in the U.S. has largely unrecognized American characteristics. The Great Resignation is the real revolution which few if any recognize. The status quo is going to great lengths to dismiss it, for example, The Great Resignation: Historical Data and a Deeper Analysis Show It’s Not as Great as Screaming Headlines Suggest, because this revolution is not controllable with force and is therefore unstoppable. The sources of the revolution are in plain sight: you rig the economy to enrich the already-rich top 10% and super-size the already bloated wealth of the top 0.1%, and then you wonder why the bottom 90% are indebted, broke, burned out and disgruntled? The hubris of the ruling elites and their lackeys is off the scale, as this structural exploitation is presumed to be not just acceptable but delightful to the bottom 90%. After 45 years of losing power, the workforce finally has a bit of leverage. Some of the leverage results from demographics–the Baby Boom generation is retiring en masse and so the workforce is shrinking–and from the revolution of opting out, as millions of individuals quit, creating a labor shortage unlike any in living memory.Read More…

end

10:49 AM (4 minutes ago)
Special thanks to Chris Powell for sending this to us:Chris Powell….

But this is another reminder that they are still experimental and should not be required.
* * *
J&J Vaccine Gets Additional Warning on Bleeding Side Effect
By Fiona RutherfordBloomberg NewsWednesday, January 12, 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-11/j-j-vaccine-gets-additional-warning-on-bleeding-side-effect

The fact sheet for Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine has been revised by U.S. regulators to warn of the risk of a rare bleeding disorder.
The Food and Drug Administration said in a letter to the company on Tuesday that adverse-event reports suggested an increased risk of immune thrombocytopenia, or ITP, during the 42 days following vaccination. Symptoms include bruising or excessive or unusual bleeding, according to the agency.
The changes to the fact sheet include recommendations to vaccination providers about giving the J&J shot to people with existing medical conditions, including those who have a low level of platelets, a type of blood cell that helps stop bleeding.
J&J said in a statement that “individuals who have been previously diagnosed with ITP should talk to their health-care provider regarding the risk of ITP and the potential need for platelet monitoring following vaccination.”
J&J’s vaccine has also been previously connected to rare but serious blood clots, a condition called thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome, or TTS. Women ages 30 to 49 were at the highest risk, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
So far, about 17 million Americans have been given the one-dose vaccine. Last month, the CDC recommended messenger RNA vaccines made by Moderna Inc. and Pfizer Inc. for use in adults over J&J’s shot.
end

GLOBAL STORIES/

end

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

Michael Every..

Rabobank: Don’t Dilly Dalio On The Way

 THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 10:05 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

And don’t dilly Dalio on the way

My old man, said be a [insert team name] fan; and I said, ‘I disagree, you’re a nasty person, and not in a relationship’” is the safe-for-work version of the classic British football-terrace song. The tune is of an original 1919 music hall number ‘And don’t dilly dally on the way’, which is about (“abaaat”) the hardships of working-class life. Indeed, the easier-to-understand-for-foreigners version, not the one my grandad sang to me, goes like this:

My old man said “Foller the van; and don’t dilly dally on the way”.

Off went the van wiv me ‘ome packed in it; I walked behind wiv me old cock linnet.

But I dillied and dallied, dallied and I dillied; Lost me way and don’t know where to roam.

Who’ll put you up when you’ve lost your bedstead; And you can’t find your way ‘ome?

This song came to my mind as headline US CPI hit 7% y/y, the highest since 1982, and core CPI hit 5.5%. Moreover, when you look at the composition of the report, it is far higher for many than is being reported. The Owners’ Equivalent Rent component that makes up a huge chunk of the total index was up just 3.8% y/y at a time when Apartment List, with a mere 5m datapoints to draw from, suggests rents are actually up nearly 18% y/y, while CoreLogic said back in September rents were up 10.2% y/y. If anything like the Apartment List data were captured –which of course they won’t be– then headline CPI would be nearly 10% y/y.  

The very beige Fed Beige Book will be seized on by optimists clinging to the view that 2022 will be like 2021, and “inflation will come down again in H2”. After all, it mentioned shortages somewhat less than in recent months, even as China shuts down again, port backlogs are longer, and Twitter suggests many shelves are barer. It also mentioned that pay continues to rise briskly, as do benefits in kind. Yes, this is playing catch-up; but it is also playing ketchup….pat, nothing, pat, nothing, pat, nothing…splurge. On one hand, that could be wage inflation into a supply-constrained US economy; or it could be a supply of goods into a demand-constrained economy. Either way, it isn’t a gradual decline back to a nice median 2% CPI forecast, sorry.

As such, governments are nervous. Quinnipiac has President Biden on 33% approval and 53% disapproval; CNN has 33% saying they trust him and 67% saying they don’t. These are numbers that political, and then policy, earthquakes are made of. There are even mutterings that Hillary Clinton might run again in 2024, while we can already assume Trump will: 2016 redux for markets to savour! You don’t want to hear what the British working class are singing about PM Boris in nightclubs or at darts matches, but he’s about as popular as Prince Andrew right now. Indeed, the Spectator sums up what even the right-of-center middle class now think of “BYO BoJo” apparently unable to recognize, or admit, he attended a 2021 boozy party of 100 people in Downing Street’s garden right after telling voters they could only meet one other person in theirs.

And if politicians are nervous, try central banks. Fed Chair Powell’s recent attempt to say he understands the pain of those hit by inflation he didn’t predict, and he’s a “diamond geezer” really, was about as believable as Dick Van Dyke’s Cawk-knee act in ‘Mary Poppins’ (which he gave an official apology for in 2017: we are still awaiting reparations). Further, when Powell says he can sort it out (“sortitaaat”) for said inflation-sufferers, he is as convincing as Keanu Reeves in ‘Dracula’, whose Mockney was by far the most diabolical thing in the whole film.

The same level of authenticity was evident in this week’s eulogy of China’s ‘common prosperity’ by Wall St’s instant-coffee table intellectual Ray Dalio. Wealth gaps need to be narrowed, says the billionaire; otherwise the US “empire” is over, added the US-based billionaire betting on both sides in what he claims is a battle for global hegemony. He’s completely right about the US; but he’s wrong that China is much better off in that regard, which is why they are embracing common prosperity! What Dalio also misses is that China is not seeing a shift to higher taxation or wealth redistribution, apart from pinpoint pounces on social media influencers and celebrities. Indeed, Beijing stresses that’s a route they don’t want to go down, and nor is embracing more state welfare spending.

This makes it unclear how the wealth gap *can* be narrowed except via more upmarket mercantilism, asset prices collapses (“houses are for living in, not speculation” is Beijing sentiment that would win LOTS of votes in the US and UK), or ‘donations’ to social causes. As such, Dalio is free to donate parts of his fortune to the state, like Chinese billionaires. He is free to avoid the “barbaric” growth of private capital by making bad investments and watching wealth gaps narrow that way: “This time next year, Rodney, we’ll [only] be millionaires.” And he is free to prioritize strategic capital investment in the US, not China, to help shift to upmarket mercantilism. But I bet he dilly Dalios on the way, and then dilly doesn’t.

This underlines a point I have been making for longer than some billionaires have been eulogizing China. All we hear in market media replete with ads for designer lifestyle goods today is the urgent need to narrow income and wealth gaps. What we never hear are any concrete solutions that don’t cause the same market media to hyperventilate and say “No, not that!

It’s always no to taxation of the rich (because socialism); no to state spending (because socialism and inflation); no to pay rises (because inflation); no to asset price collapses (because markets and ads for designer lifestyle goods); no to breaking up monopolies (because rigged markets); and no to any form of protectionism (because markets and long supply chains in firms running ads for designer lifestyle goods). None of the key policy levers can be pulled for any serious length of time, or at all.

And yet now is apparently the right time to pull the rate hikes, QE tapering, and then QT levers, while reassuring markets that asset prices won’t go down, and saying that this will help the working class pay the rent. “Pull the other one. it’s got bells on,” as they mutter in working class London while serving drinks on trays to billionaires publicly worrying about wealth gaps. “Who’ll put you up when you’ve lost your bedstead; And you can’t find your way ‘ome?”

Meanwhile, the key Moscow/NATO meeting ended yesterday with the former saying the situation was “very dangerous” and the way forward was unclear. Some report that the only obstacle to a way forward for Russia in one respect is the warmer-than-normal weather: until the ground freezes hard, their tanks can’t roll even if Putin wants them to. (Ironic, given global warming was supposed to start wars, according to the Pentagon.) Will Vlad dilly dally for much longer?

*  *  *

Today is light on data, apart from US PPI and initial claims, but is heavy on big picture themes, far-too-early 2022 calls, and instant-coffee table intellectualism


.

7. OIL ISSUES

  

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

AUSTRALIA

Fully Vaccinated Australians In Hospital With COVID-19 Surpass Unvaccinated

Inbox

Chris Powell7:16 PM (3 hours ago)
to me

Fully Vaccinated Australians In Hospital With COVID-19 Surpass Unvaccinated

By Daniel Khmelev
The Eopch Times, New York
Wednesday, January 12, 2022

https://www.theepochtimes.com/fully-vaccinated-australians-in-hospital-with-covid-19-surpass-unvaccinated_4207135.html

For the first time, New South Wales (NSW) has seen more fully vaccinated patients hospitalised with COVID-19 compared to the number of unvaccinated patients as the Omicron outbreak continues to edge toward its peak.

Data published by the NSW government’s COVID-19 Critical Intelligence Unit has revealed that as of Jan. 9, 68.9 percent of COVID-19 patients aged 12 and over in hospitals had two doses of the vaccine, with 28.8 percent unvaccinated.

The number of double-dose vaccinated patients in intensive care units (ICUs) also surpassed those of the unvaccinated, with 50.3 percent of the vaccinated presenting to ICU with COVID-19, more than the 49.1 percent who are unvaccinated.

However, based on the data, unvaccinated individuals are still six times more likely to be hospitalised and nearly 13 times more likely to be sent to ICU than those who are fully vaccinated.

This is because the number of unvaccinated patients is over-represented in the figures—while nearly half of the hospitalised COVID-19 patients aged 12 and over were unvaccinated, this group made up only 7.3 percent of the population.

The rise in the proportion of hospitalisations amongst the fully vaccinated comes both amid the spread of the Omicron variant of the CCP virus in Australia, along with the loss in the efficacy of the available COVID-19 vaccines.

A spokesperson for NSW Health told The Epoch Times on Jan. 11 that Omicron had supplanted Delta as the primary variant spreading in NSW, but that it also appeared to be less dangerous than its predecessor.

“The Omicron variant is associated with a lower rate of hospitalisation and ICU admission,” the spokesperson said.

While the state recorded 32,155 cases of the virus on Jan. 9, 2,030 were hospitalised, and only 159 had been sent to ICU. As of Jan. 12, the total number of cases has jumped to 53,909, with 2,242 hospitalised and 175 in ICU.

“NSW Health urges the community to continue to practise COVID-safe behaviours to keep themselves and the community safe, including wearing a mask indoors, maintaining physical distancing, and practising hand hygiene.”

The spokesperson also reminded those eligible to receive their third booster dose of an available COVID-19 vaccine—which can now be done four months after receiving the second dose—to raise the effectiveness of immunity granted by the vaccine.

“We continue to encourage everyone who has not yet done so to get vaccinated and anyone who is now eligible for their booster dose to get it without delay. The COVID-19 vaccines available in Australia are safe and very effective at reducing the risk of serious illness and death.”

In the United States, it has been reported that 2 out of the three available COVID-19 vaccines dropped below 50 percent efficacy after six months, according to a study published in November 2021.

To combat this, NSW has mandated booster shots for all education staff, joining other states that have implemented vaccine booster requirements.

NSW is also currently working to better understand the effects of the new COVID-19 variants.

“NSW Health is prioritising the whole genome sequencing of COVID-19 for patients in ICU in order to better understand the impact of both the Delta and Omicron variants,” the spokesperson said.

-END-

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1462 UP .0024 /EUROPE BOURSES //MOSTLY GREEN (EXCEPT FRANCE)  

USA/ YEN 114.32  DOWN  0.352 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3718  UP   0.0013

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 42.17 OR 1.17%

  //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 27.60 PTS OR 0.11%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .67%   // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I)EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN   

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED UP 27.60 OR  0.11%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.17  PTS OR 1.17%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .45%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 276.54 PTS OR 0.96%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1823.65

silver:$23.17-

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 94.82  DOWN 9  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.53% DOWN 4  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.131% UP 0 AND 2/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.60%// DOWN 2   in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.22 DOWN 4    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 62 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO -0.087% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.31% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1469  UP .0030    or 30 basis points

USA/Japan: 114.06 DOWN 0.616 OR YEN UP 61\  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3738 UP 33  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP 24 pts to 1.2479

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED DOWN)..6.3599  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3667

TURKISH LIRA:  13.54  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.131

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.733% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.084  DOWN 1 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.75  DOWN 16   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

  Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 12.13 PTS OR 0.16%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 21.27points or 0.53%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN  36.05 PTS OR  0.50% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 46.60PTS OR .53%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 130.19 PTS OR 0.47%

WTI Oil price 82,13    12: EST

Brent Oil:  84.50 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:   76.45 THE CROSS HIGHER BY  181 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 181 BASIS PTS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; -.087

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1457 UP  .0182 BASIS PTS  OR 18 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3707 UP .0002 or up 2 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 114.07 down .609

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2507 UP .0004 (cdn dollar down 4 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 81.61

Brent: 83.82

USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.699 down 5 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.041 down 5  pts.

USA dollar vs Turkish lira: 13,58

usa dollar vs Russian rouble: 76.42 down 185 basis pts.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 176.70 PTS OR 0.49%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 409.48 OR 2.57%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.31 UP 2.69 PTS

GLD/NYSE CLOSING PRICE $170.16 DOWN $0.58 OR 0.34%

SLV/NYSE CLOSING PRICE: $21.33// DOWN $.12 OR 0.56%

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM:

Bitcoin, Breakevens, & Big-Tech Breakdown As Inflation Batters Bond Bears

THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 04:00 PM

With a non-stop barrage of hawkish FedSpeak today, following record high PPI, no one should be surprised that stonks shit the bed as the realization dawns that any Powell Put is struck considerably lower than this and the game of chicken continues. Nasdaq wasa clubbed like a baby seal today, down over 2.5% (from up almost 0.5% after PPI). The S&P fell 2%, Small Caps -1% and even The Dow was dumped into the close…

This is the biggest Nasdaq drawdown since May 2021…

Big-Tech tumbled today and so did bond-yields. The most risky, longest-duration stocks suffered most…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq’s crusade lower continued after a 3-day respite ramp test to its 100DMA and fail and the S&P broke back below its 50DMA…

The Market to The Fed…

Treasury yields were all lower today with the belly of the curve outperforming (5Y -5bps, 2Y and 30Y -3bps). Notably, only 2Y yields are higher on the week, with 30Y -7bps…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields broke below 2.05%, back to one-week lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve has flattened notably, now flatter on the year…flashing some red ‘policy error’ flags…

Source: Bloomberg

And Breakevens slipped to 3-week lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Rather more worrisome is the fact that Mortgage Rates are soaring (as the market’s biggest buyer steps back) despite TSY yields not chasing…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar continued to slip further below its 100DMA, its lowest since early November…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos took another beating today with bitcoin sliding back from $44k…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was down today with WTI back below $82…

And gold tumbled early but caught a bid back above $1820…

Finally, in case you really thought you would call The Fed’s bluff, QE shrinks by $20BN to $40BN in period Jan. 18-Feb 10…

It will then shrink another $20BN and end by mid-March when the Fed will hike…

Source: Bloomberg

And if we believe the Taylor Rule, The Fed is 1000bps to easy right now…

Source: Bloomberg

But, if STIRs are right, it may stop hiking rates by year-end… but QT will continue?

END

I)MORNING TRADING/AFTERNOON TRADING

Stocks All Just Puked Into The Red

 THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 12:21 PM

The Dow finally joined Small Caps, S&P, and Nasdaq in the red as the European close appears to have triggered a mass-panic puke in all the US majors

The S&P is testing down to its 50DMA and Nasdaq failed at its 100DMA…

Cryptos started to drop before stocks…

Treasury yields and the dollar are not reacting anything like as violently.

Looking for a catalyst – good luck – Prince Andrew being de-frocked? Lael Brainard saying The Fed cares about the climate?

II)USA DATA

Not good:  PPI surges to record high as service costs soar.  This is a forerunner of higher CPI (price inflation on goods

Producer Prices Surge To Record High As Services Costs Soar

THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 08:39 AM

Following the 39-year-high CPI print, analysts expected producer prices to continue accelerating to a 9.8% YoY surge in December, but while PPI rose for the 20th straight month, it was up slightly less than expected at 9.7% YoY – still a record high.

Source: Bloomberg

PPI Ex Food and Energy rose 8.3% YoY – well above the +8.0% expected and record hig (above November’s 7.7% print)

The CPI-PPI spread – a proxy for margin – continues to signal profit pressure for corporates…

Source: Bloomberg

And while Final Demand prices have a long way to catch up, it appears the acceleration in Intermediate Demand goods prices may have peaked…

Source: Bloomberg

Goods inflation continues to dominate Services but as the economy reopens, Services prices are accelerating…

Source: Bloomberg

A major factor in the December decrease in prices for final demand goods was the index for gasoline, which moved down 6.1 percent. That will not be the case in January with $82 WTI.

Over a quarter of the December increase in the index for final demand services can be attributed to margins for fuels and lubricants retailing, which rose 13.0 percent. The indexes for airline passenger services, food retailing, machinery and vehicle wholesaling, machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling, and traveler accommodation services also moved higher. In contrast, margins for automobile and automobile parts retailing decreased 2.7 percent. The indexes for deposit services (partial) and for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing also declined.

end

Initial Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Spike To Start The Year

THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 08:48 AM

The number of actual Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time spiked to 419k in the first week of 2022. That is the highest since May 2021.

Seasonally-adjusted, initial claims also rose notably to 230k (against 200k expected)

Source: Bloomberg

And while continuing claims on a seasonally-adjusted basis dropped to 1.559mm – pre-COVID-lockdown levels – on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, continuing claims jumped to 2.056mm, the highest since mid-October.

Source: Bloomberg

And overall, the number of Americans filing for some form of unemployment benefit rose from 1.722mm to 1.948mm (unadjusted)…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this the Omicron effect?

end

III) USA COVID UPDATES.

Supreme Court blocks Biden’s OSHA vaxx mandate.  But the healthcare mandate stays

(zerohedge)

Supreme Court Blocks Biden’s OSHA Vaxx Mandate

 THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 02:32 PM

Despite the misinformation spewed forth by Justice Sotomayor, The US Supreme Court has blocked the Biden administration’s vaccine-or-test rule for US businessesbut allows vaccine mandate for most health care workers.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) argue against the Department of Labor, in the Court’s first hearing, that:

“OSHA’s sweeping regulatory dictate,” will “irreparably injure the very businesses that Americans have counted on to widely distribute COVID-19 vaccines and protective equipment to save lives—and to keep them fed, clothed, and sustained during this now two-year-long pandemic.”

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) rule would have required 80 million workers to get shots or periodic tests.

The OSHA ruling vote was 6-3 with Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan in dissent.

“Permitting OSHA to regulate the hazards of daily life – simply because most Americans have jobs and face those same risks while on the clock – would significantly expand OSHA’s regulatory authority without clear congressional authorization.”

Chief Justice John Roberts, who was appointed by President George W. Bush, said during arguments that he thinks it’s hard to argue that the 1970 law governing OSHA “gives free reign to the agencies to enact such broad regulation.”

The court allowed a separate rule to take effect requiring shots for workers in nursing homes, hospitals and other facilities that receive Medicare and Medicaid payments from the federal government (which will be interesting given that California just allowed COVID positive healthcare workers to go back to work).

The vaccine mandate for healthcare workers vote was 5-4 with Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Barrett in dissent, which means Roberts and Kavanaugh joined liberal justices in allowing the HHS mandate on healthcare workers to stand.

So with over 1 million COVID cases per day and now his vaxx mandate in tatters, this seems to sum things up rather well…

How long before the cries of “Pack The Court” echo around The Capitol once more?

*  *  *

Read the full opinions below:

OSHA

CMS

34

Walensky reports that Omicron now represents 98.3% of all cases.  The 1600 deaths reported by the uSA is the delta variant.  The Omicron has caused few deaths in the uSA. It will turn

out to be the saviour for mankind as we will obtain herd immunity in the next few months.  However the vaccine injuries will march on!

(zerohedge)

COVID Deaths Jump 40% As US Continues To See More Than 1 Million Cases A Day

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 09:20 PM

Deaths involving patients with COVID increased by 40% over the past week, according to the CDC. But as it happens, almost all of the deaths reported involve patients infected with delta, not the omicron variant which is now responsible for nearly all COVID cases.

On average, the US reported about 1,600 deaths a day last week, up from about 1,150 the week before, said CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky.

The US has continued to report more than 1 million cases a day, according to Johns Hopkins, with a record-breaking 1.35 million reported yesterday alone.

Walensky, who spoke during a White House COVID Response Team briefing, said she believes these deaths are just “left over” fatalities from the delta wave – nothing to worry about.

Of course, there’s no way the CDC can truly know this for certain. The government’s COVID policies are mostly just grasping at straws. Though they would never admit that.

So, why is it so hard to believe that delta alone is accounting for these deaths? Well, for one, the government believes the omicron variant accounts for 98.3% of all new cases.

Public health officials will monitor “deaths over the next several weeks to see the impact of omicron on mortality,” Walenksy said during the briefing. “Given the sheer number of cases, we may see deaths from omicron, but I suspect the deaths we’re seeing now are still from delta.”

Of course, while Walensky delivered the news with her characteristic alarmism, we feel it’s important to take a beat and put it all in context. See the chart below:

Deaths are nowhere near the highs from last winter.

end

Finally, we have a body recognizing natural immunity

(zerohedge)

NCAA Recognizes Natural Immunity In Definition Of ‘Fully Vaccinated’

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 04:40 PM

The NCAA has changed their guidelines to recognize natural immunity from a prior COVID infection as part of their definition of “fully vaccinated,” according to ESPN.

“The omicron variant has presented another surge of cases across the country,” said NCAA chief medical officer Brian Hainline. “This guidance was designed to align with the latest public health directives. Given how the pandemic continues to evolve, it’s important that staff on member campuses continue to work with their local and state health officials on protocols most suitable for their locations.”

There’s a catch, however, in that the “fully vaccinated” status will only include athletes who are “within 90 days of a documented COVID-19 infection.”

It’s unclear what “documented” means (positive home test?).

The NCAA still suggests a five-day quarantine period following a positive test, followed by five days of wearing a mask – in line with the CDC’s controversial new guidance.

Natural immunity

As Fee.org notes: “Some evidence, such as a medical study out of Israel published in October, suggests that people with natural immunity actually have more protection from COVID-19 than vaccinated individuals.”

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Director of the National Institutes of Health and the Chief Medical Advisor to the President, was recently asked on CNN about the Israeli study—specifically if people naturally infected with COVID-19 had a lower risk of contracting the virus than those who received the vaccine. He declined to give a clear answer.

“I don’t have a really firm answer for you on that,” Fauci said. “That’s something that we’re going to have to discuss regarding the durability of the response.” -Fee.org

Yet, according to Harvard Medical School professor Martin Kulldrff, “Based on the solid evidence from the Israeli study, the Covid recovered have stronger and longer-lasting immunity against Covid disease than the vaccinated.”

“Hence, there is no reason to prevent them from activities that are permitted to the vaccinated.

end’

NYC sees COVID cases plateau: this is good

NYC Sees COVID Cases Plateau As Biden Sends The Military To 6 States

THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 10:33 AM

With millions of Americans still struggling to buy COVID tests at pharmacies and on Amazon, President Joe Biden has decided to order the federal government to procure another 500MM COVID tests to meet “future demand”, according to media reports leaked to preview a speech that Biden will make later in the day.

The president, who has been criticized for not focusing enough on testing, is also preparing to dispatch more military personnel to aide struggling US hospitals, which remain overwhelmed.

Interestingly, most Americans haven’t yet received any of the last batch of 500MM tests that Biden purchased. Several states are still struggling to disburse them to towns and counties. But by buying up more tests, Biden is sopping up critical supply so it can sit in a government warehouse.

Additionally, President Biden is also ordering roughly 1,000 military personnel to six states where they will assist at overwhelmed hospitals. The states include Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio and Rhode Island. As daily case numbers continue to eclipse 1MM cases, the number of Americans hospitalized has climbed to 142,000 across the country.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=new_cases_smoothed_per_million&Metric=Cases+and+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~USA&hideControls=true

Already, more than 14K National Guard members have been activated in 49 states to help at hospitals with vaccinations, testing and other medical services.

What’s more, as President Biden gears up for his third alarmist press conference since the start of the winter wave, it looks like COVID cases are actually plateauing in a few key areas that were among the first – and hardest hit – areas by omicron.

Source: NYT

As the NYT reminds us, the number of new COVID cases in NYC increased by more than 20x since the start of December. In the past few days, it has flattened. In both New Jersey and Maryland, the number of new cases has fallen slightly this week. In several major cities, the number is also showing signs of leveling off.

And it’s not just the case data that are showing a decline. In Boston, researchers have been testing wastewater to track the concentration of virus in the city’s sewers. In recent weeks, the amount detectable in wastewater has plunged about 40%.

“We really try not to ever make any predictions about this virus, because it always throws us for a loop,” Dr. Shira Doron, an epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center, told GBH News.

“But at least the wastewater is suggesting a steep decline, and so we hope that means cases will decline steeply as well, and then hospitalizations and deaths will follow.”

While we can’t be certain that this marks the end of the omicron wave, there’s at least good reason to be confident.

As we shared earlier in the week, analysts at Morgan Stanley projected that the current omicron wave would likely peak in three weeks.

That would certainly be a relief for Biden, who has seen his approval rating sink to a record low 33%…

(zerohedge)

iii) important USA economic stories for you tonight

end


iii)b USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//

Shipping jams at an all time high

Tyler Durden's Photo

Greg Miller

New Year Brings New All-Time High For Shipping’s Epic Traffic Jam

WEDNESDAY, JAN 12, 2022 – 08:20 PM

By Greg Miller of FreightWaves,

America made it through Christmas without too many bare shelves, despite historic port congestion. Goods were brought in early and shoppers shopped early. Holiday sales were up 11% from 2019, pre-COVID.

Consumer fears of a holiday shortage appear to have spiked in October, then pulled back as concerns lessened. 

Google searches for the term “port congestion” were up 376% from the beginning of 2021 in the second week of October. Searches for the term “supply chain” peaked in the third week of October, up 194% from the beginning of last year. Searches for both terms then faded back to normal in November.

Supply chain pressures are trending in the opposite direction of Google searches. The holiday rush may be over, but the offshore traffic jam of container ships is still getting worse, and the volume of inventory on the water (thus unavailable for sale) is still increasing.  

As 2022 begins, import volumes remain very strong ahead of China’s Lunar New Year holiday, concerns are mounting about omicron-induced dockworker shortages at U.S. terminals, and the number of container ships waiting for berths in Southern California has — yet again — hit a new high.

Ships waiting off SoCal triple

A record 105 container ships were waiting for berths in Los Angeles and Long Beach on Thursday and Friday, according to data from the Marine Exchange of Southern California.

On Thursday, only 16 were in port waters (within 40 miles of Los Angeles and Long Beach) and 89 were loitering or slow steaming outside the newly designated Safety and Air Quality Zone, which extends 150 miles to the west of the ports and 50 miles to the north and south. Ship-positioning data from MarineTraffic confirms that most of these vessels are off the Baja peninsula.

There were more than three times as many container ships waiting for LA/LB berths as there were at the same time last year, 11.6 times more than on June 24 (the low point for last year), and 31% more than on Oct. 24, when online searches for the term “supply chain” peaked and the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach announced a new Biden administration-backed congestion fee plan.

Because ships vary widely in size, a more telling indicator than the number of ships is total capacity of vessels in the queue. The vessels waiting for LA/LB berths on Thursday (including container ships and general cargo ships with containers aboard) had an aggregate capacity of 815,958 twenty-foot equivalent units, according to Marine Exchange data.

To put that in perspective, that is 6% higher than the combined imports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in the entire month of November. It is 9% higher that the capacity of ships waiting offshore at the end of November (745,305 TEUs) and 28% higher than capacity off LA/LB at the beginning of November (637,329 TEUs).

Ships waiting off other ports

It’s not just about LA/LB.

In Northern California, the port of Oakland experienced heavy congestion in Q2 2021, after which queues disappeared when carriers slashed services. But services are being added back and anchorages are refilling. As of midday Friday, MarineTraffic data showed eight container ships anchored in San Francisco Bay and one more loitering in the Pacific.

An additional four container ships were waiting for berths in Seattle/Tacoma in the Pacific Northwest. And over on the Gulf Coast, five container ships were anchored or loitering off the shores of Houston.Maps: MarineTraffic. Left: Anchored ships in Francisco Bay off Oakland. Right: Ships waiting off Houston

On the East Coast, the queue off Savannah, Georgia — which at one point last year reached 30 ships, second only to LA/LB’s — was down to just two container vessels. However, queues have grown to the north. There were six ships waiting off Charleston, South Carolina, and an additional four waiting off Virginia.

The ports of New York and New Jersey are now home to the largest queue on the East Coast. As of Friday, MarineTraffic data showed 11 container ships offshore, bringing the grand total waiting for berths along all three U.S. coastlines to 146.Maps: MarineTraffic. Left: Ships off Charleston and Savannah. Right: Container ships off NY/NJ

r

iv)swamp stories

Kyrsten Sinema Nukes Dem Agenda In Blistering Speech

THURSDAY, JAN 13, 2022 – 02:50 PM

In a blistering Thursday speech on the Senate floor, Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) drove the nail in the coffin of the Democratic agenda – namely, ending their push to change the chamber’s filibuster rules and pass major voting rights legislation.

During her speech, Sinema said that any changes to the filibuster would continue to create political division, even though she has concerns over GOP voting laws she says would restrict voting rights.

While I continue to support these bills, I will not support separate actions that worsen the underlying disease of division infecting our country,” she said.https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1481703967180607493&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fkyrsten-sinema-nukes-dem-agenda-blistering-speech&sessionId=cad65c0435f7d6f39abe22dfac1b5f8954138fcb&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=86e9194f%3A1641882287124&width=550px

The other moderate Dem holdout, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, called it an “Excellent speech.” https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1481685774726832141&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fkyrsten-sinema-nukes-dem-agenda-blistering-speech&sessionId=cad65c0435f7d6f39abe22dfac1b5f8954138fcb&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=86e9194f%3A1641882287124&width=550px

Sinema’s speech came after word that President Joe Biden was expected to head to Capitol Hill on Thursday to try and push Democratic lawmakers to back the filibuster changes in order to ram the voting rights bills through.

After Sinema’s speech, however – as well as word that Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) would be unable to vote due to testing positive for Covid-19, Biden said he’s ‘not sure’ it can get done.https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1481715048720572418&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fkyrsten-sinema-nukes-dem-agenda-blistering-speech&sessionId=cad65c0435f7d6f39abe22dfac1b5f8954138fcb&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=86e9194f%3A1641882287124&width=550px

Watch Sinema’s entire speech below:

On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said the (not-so) quiet part out loud: that Democrats’ bid to eliminate the filibuster for their blank-check ambitions will be an ‘uphill battle’ as long as Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) are opposed to it.

“I don’t want to delude your listeners: This is an uphill fight, because Manchin and Sinema both do not believe in changing the rules,” Schumer admitted during a Center for American Progress event on Tuesday evening, Politico reported.

Instead, Schumer called for a public pressure campaign against Manchin and Sinema to bend the knee.

Looks like that just failed.

(end)

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

@pboockvar: Again, the BLS is badly miscalculating rent component by saying OER was up 3.8% y/o/y & Rent of Primary Residence was higher by 3.3% y/o/y. Apartment List said this week that 2021 rents were up by 17.8%. If the latter was punched into today’s calculation, CPI would be above 10%.
 
Inflation is nearing 10% in Atlanta and parts of the Sun Belt https://t.co/Jb1Ui3CaE0
 
@biancoresearch: One-year ago inflation was 1.4%.  Today it is 7%. What Fed forecasts came remotely close to predicting this? @elerianm is correct, this is about the biggest forecasting error in the 107-year history of the Fed. If not, what is?
 
Because inflation has not been a concern for decades, many people, including politicians, have forgotten how harmful it is for politicians and the ruling class.  It’s the stuff of revolution!  ‘Tis why Republicans have begun pounding Joey Baby over inflation.
 
@Logan_Ratick: Statement from Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) on inflation hitting a 40-year high: “If President Biden isn’t gravely concerned yet that inflation and his out-of-control spending are harming Americans and setting the stage for an economic downturn, now is a good time to start.”
 
GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: As inflation hits 7%, President Biden’s only concern is destroying the Senate to abolish voter-ID laws. If Biden’s staff give the president permission to answer questions at lunch, Senate Dems should ask what he’s doing to stop inflation.
 
Florida CFO @JimmyPatronis: Inflation is rising at a record rate. It hurts our small businesses. It’s especially hurting the poor & middle class. Biden would rather fan the flames of partisanship with his radical base instead of dealing with challenges that impact everyone. His head is in the sand.
 
@Chafuen: Highest inflation in 40 years . . .  I write “If socialism fails because you eventually run out of other people’s money, Keynesianism fails when the benefits of easy money have reached their limit.” We have reached that limit. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alejandrochafuen/2021/12/31/the-united-states-economy-in-2022-all-eyes-on-inflation/
 
Liberals are trying to persuade The Big Guy to implement wage and price controls, which are historically a disaster.  This appears to be a “Hail Mary” to avoid the looming Midterm Election carnage for Dems.
 
China’s new bank loans hit record US$3.1 trillion in 2021, more than Britain’s GDP: SCMP
Chinese banks extended 1.13 trillion yuan (US$177 billion) in new yuan loans in December, down from 1.27 trillion yuan in November – New bank lending hit a record 19.95 trillion yuan (US$3.1 trillion) for the year, up 1.6 per cent from 19.63 trillion yuan in 2020…
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3163114/chinas-new-bank-loans-hit-record-us31-trillion-2021-more

Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab – but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’ – Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so… Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/
 
@ClayTravis: Pfizer made a copyright claim to remove their CEO’s video comments that two doses of their covid vaccine offers “limited protection, if any.” This is wild.
 
(Last night) US inflation ‘too high,’ lowering it a priority: Fed’s Brainard
https://money.yahoo.com/us-inflation-too-high-lowering-215237311.html
 
Today – From Wednesday’s King Report: If CPI is worse than expected and stocks react negatively, the key for the day will be the equity rescue team.  Will they appear, and at what level?  We could have a replay of yesterday due to the release of the December PPI, which is expected to be sharply higher (+9.8% y/y) than the December CPI.  The S&P 500 Index low yesterday was 4706.71.  The rescue team’s scheme will be to keep the S&P 500 Index above 4700 if December PPI is troubling.
 
If PPI is troubling, the equity rescue team will probably again manipulate ESHs higher to change the negative psychology and narrative.  The only question is whether it produces a lasting rally or if the rally fails like it did yesterday.  Even if the manipulation fails, it serves the purpose of preventing bear market angst, which will keep investors and traders in the market so the ginormous money managers can keep cashing their fees.  Q4 results commence with DAL; .23 is expected.  ESHs are -0.50 at 20:00 ET.
 
Expected Economic Data: Dec PPI 0.4% m/m & 9.8% y/y, Core 0.5% m/m & 6.9% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 200k, Continuing Claims 1.773m; Brainard confirmation hearing at Senate Banking Cmte 10 ET, Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 12:00 ET, Chicago Fed Pres Evans 13:00 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4680; 100-day MA: 4572; 150-day MA: 4499; 200-day MA: 4414                                                                                         
DJIA 50-day MA: 35,838; 100-day MA: 35,400; 150-day MA: 35,175; 200-day MA 34,906
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4235.75 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4512.32 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4663.06 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4680.80 triggers a sell signal
 
@TomBevanRCP: Biden job approval in new Quinnipiac poll is 33% among adults – and just 25% with Indies. Among registered voters it is 35%. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us01122022_ubjw88.pdf
    @MZHemingway: If even the left-wing pollsters have numbers this bad for Biden, the real numbers must be even more horrific.
 
@AnnCoulter: Trump is demanding to know Ron DeSantis’s booster status, and I can now reveal it. He was a loyal booster when Trump ran in 2016, but then he learned our president was a liar and con man whose grift was permanent. I hope that clears things up
 
@seanmdav: It’s time to get the D.C. U.S. attorney under oath to explain how peacefully walking through a door held open by Capitol Police is a felony while straight up inciting people, on camera, to violently seize the Capitol is not “a crime worth charging.”
 
@TuckerCarlson: It’s clear the DOJ had some role in the events of January 6.
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1481083259702423553
 
GOP @RepThomasMassie: Congress owns the video inside the Capitol on January 6thand Congress should release it when we get the majority back. If the identities of some undercover Feds among the protestors are revealed, so be it. This is too important.
 
@thehill: Sen. @marcorubio: “I don’t care how many candlelight vigils and musical performances you have from the cast of Hamilton, you’re not going to convince most normal and sane people that our government last year was almost overthrown by a guy wearing a Viking hat and speedos.”
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1481355551078502404
 
Dems’ bid to tar 2020 election skeptics belied by left’s own history of contesting voting results
“Remember, Democrats objected to counting the electors every single time a Republican was elected president this century,” Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) told the John Solomon Reports podcast.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/year-after-jan-6-democrats-hypocrisy-storming-capitols-and-election
 
@RNCResearch: CNN’s Jake Tapper: “Delaware doesn’t allow the kind of early voting that other states do…How come Democrats only complain about strict voting regulations in red states?”
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1481028082526048265
 
McConnell fires back at Biden’s ‘profoundly unpresidential’ speech: ‘Deliberately divisive’ McConnell says of Biden: ‘I did not recognize the man at the podium yesterday’ https://t.co/CZxYXDrwA8
 
McConnell calls Biden’s voting rights speech an ‘incoherent’ ‘rant’ (What woke up Meek Mitch?)
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2022/01/12/McConnell-filibuster-voting-rights-Georgia-Biden/2141642016578/
 
@igorbobic: Biden currently standing outside McConnell’s office, meeting with a group of pages “I like Mitch McConnell, he’s a friend,” he said when asked to respond to McConnell calling his speech “unpresidential” (After Joey Baby labeled Republicans ‘racist’ for opposing his voting right bill.  PS – Meek Mitch refused to meet with The Big Guy.)
 
@DougAndres: Sen. Durbin: “Perhaps the president went a little too far in rhetoric.”
 
Stacey Abrams to skip Biden’s voting rights speech in Georgia due to conflict (Joe is now toxic!)
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/589126-stacy-abrams-to-skip-bidens-voting-rights-speech-in-georgia-due-to
 
@SteveGuest: Joe Biden in 2019: “Ending the filibuster is a very dangerous move.”  Sen. Ted Cruz in 2022: “Was [Biden] lying when he said ‘ending the filibuster is a very dangerous move?'”
https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1481368338752315398
 
@SteveGuest: Sen. Ted Cruz: “Any reporter who wants to be something other than a partisan shill and mouthpiece for the Democrats ought to ask every single Democrat, ‘Senator so and so, do you agree with Chuck Schumer that ending the filibuster will turn our nation into a banana republic?'”
https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1481369020611932170
 
@newsmax: @SenTomCotton delivers an emphatic speech in defense of the filibuster – using only past statements once made by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
https://twitter.com/newsmax/status/1481390638771974148

I will see you on FRIDAY night/

end

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