JAN 31
January 31, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment ·Edit
GOLD; UP $10.10 to $1796.00
SILVER: $22.38 UP 7 CENTS
ACCESS MARKET: GOLD: 1797.00..
SILVER: $22.46
Bitcoin: morning price: 37,200 down 143
Bitcoin: afternoon price: 38,348 UP 1005
Platinum price: closing up $15.15 to $1023.60
Palladium price; closing down $24.30 at $2357.50
END
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comex notices//JPMorgan notices filed COMEX//NOTICES: 1/13
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JANUARY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,793.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/27/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 01/31/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEB. CONTRACT: 3783 NOTICE(S) FOR 378300 OZ (11.766 TONNES)
total notices so far: 3783 contracts for 378,300 oz (11.766 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES:
558 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 2,790,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month 588 : for 2.790,000 oz
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $10.10
WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//
GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE
ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
CLOSING INVENTORY: 1014.26 TONNES/
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 7 CENTS:/: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF: 1.202 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//
AT THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY SLV/ TONIGHT: 533.801 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG 1300 CONTRACTS TO 148,381 AND RESTS FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH OUR STRONG $0.36 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.36) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT A FEW SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 175 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES .
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.110 MILLION OZ V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS.
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS +100
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN:
TOTAL CONTACTS for 21 days, total contracts: : 18,092 contracts or 90.460 million oz OR 4.307 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (861 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 18,092 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:
EQUATES TO: 90.460 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 8 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1300 WITH OUR $0.36 LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1125 CONTRACTS( 1125 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 1125 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF 10.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 145,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 15.275, MILLION OZ// .. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 298 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 1.490 MILLION OZ//
WE HAD 588 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 2,790,000 OZ
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 14,106 TO 527,614 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: +3 CONTRACTS
.
THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.30//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAD SOME COMEX SPREADER LIQUIDATION FOLLOWED BY HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3317 CONTRACTS…WITH THE ENTIRE TOTAL LOSS COMING FROM SPREADER LIQUIDATION.
WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN AT 3.5614 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE. JUMP //NEW STANDING: 17.7912 TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $36.15 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 10,367 OI CONTRACTS (32.24 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALLED A FAIR SIZED 3739 CONTRACTS:
FOR FEB 3739 ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL:3739
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 527,614.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,367, WITH 14,106 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3739 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,367 CONTRACTS OR 32.24TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3739) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (14,106,): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 10,367 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 64.30 TONNES// 3)SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AS SOME OF THE TOTAL LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION,4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI. LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB, FOR GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN :
79,459 CONTRACTS OR 7,945,900 oz OR 247.25 TONNES 21 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3783 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 21 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 247.25 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 247.25/3550 x 100% TONNES 6.96% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 145.12 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1300 CONTRACTS TO 148,381 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 4 1/2 YEARS AGO.
EFP ISSUANCE 1125 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 1125 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1884 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2182 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1125 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 175 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 0.875 MILLION OZ,
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.36 LOSS IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,
(Peter Schiff,
3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
5. Other gold commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 252.78 PTS OR 1.07% /The Nikkei closed UP 284.64 PTS OR 1.07% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.03% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed HOLIDAY /Oil DOWN TO 87362 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 88.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED XX AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT XXX. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3813: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN AND OFF SHORE TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR
A)NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 14,106 CONTRACTS AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS OF $8.30 IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (3739 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY BAILING OUT
WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3739 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , DEC : 0 & FEB. 3739 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3739 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED 10,367 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3739 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 14,106 CONTRACTS..MOST OF THE TOTAL LOSS WAS DUE TO THE CONTINUING SPREADER LIQUIDATION
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (17.7912),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $8.30) BUT THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS AS, EVEN THOUGH THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A STRONG 32.24 TONNES ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (17.7916 TONNES)…MOST OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO THE CONTINUING OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION
WE HAD +19 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10,367 CONTRACTS OR 1,036,700 OZ OR 32.24 TONNES
Estimated gold volume today: 137,217 /// poor
Confirmed volume yesterday: 258,435 contracts poor
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB ’22 COMEX GOLD //JAN 31
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 8037.75 ozINT.DELAWARE 250 KILOBARSINT.DELAWARE |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nilOZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 3783 notice(s)378300 OZ11.766 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 16,892 contracts 1,689,200 oz 52.54 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 3783 notices 378300 OZ11.766 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | xxx oz |
For today:
No dealer deposit 0
No dealer withdrawal 0
0 customer deposit
total deposit: nil oz
1 customer withdrawals
i)Out of Int. Delaware 8037.75 oz (250 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 8037.75oz
ADJUSTMENTS: 2//dealer to customer
i) Manfra: 385.812 oz (12 kilobars)
ii) Out of Brinks 96.453 (3 kilobarsw)
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.
For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 20,675 stand for LOSING 11,296 contracts.
Thus by definition, the initial amount of gold standing in this active delivery month of February is as follows:
20,765 notices x 100 oz per notice = 2,076500 oz or 64.30 tonnes
March GAINED 264 contracts to stand at 4123..
APRIL LOST 3183 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 399,852
We had 3783 notice(s) filed today for 378300 oz FOR THE FEB 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 1229 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3783 contract(s) of which 479 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 642 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2021. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3783) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEB: 20,675 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 3783 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,067,500 OZ OR 64.30 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of FEB.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:
No of notices filed so far (3783) x 100 oz+ (20,675) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3783} x 100 oz} which equals 2,067,500 oz standing OR 64.30 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEB.
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 64.30 TONNES (HUGE FOR A FEBRUARY DELIVERY MONTH)
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
157,392.690, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 4.89 TONNES
125,410.592 PLEDGED MANFRA 2.90 TONNES
54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690
288,481,604, oz JPM No 2 8.97 TONNES
898,821.330 oz pledged Brinks/27,96 TONNES
12,249,333 oz International Delaware: 0..3810 tonne
Loomis: 18,615.429 oz
total pledged gold: 1,555,310.092 oz 48.376 tonnes
TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 33,396,684.729 OZ (1038,77 TONNES)
TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,825,885.963 OZ (492.25 tonnes)
TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,570,798.766 OZ (546.52 tonnes)
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 16,015,971.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 498.16 tonnes
END
FEBRUARY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER
INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//JAN 31
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 301,998.840 oz DelawareCNT |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nilOZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 14,914.500 ozBrinks |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 588 CONTRACT(S)2,790,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 234 contracts (1170,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 588 contracts 2,790,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
And now for the wild silver comex results
we had 0 deposits into the dealer
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
We have 1 deposits
i) Into Brinks: 14,914.500 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 185.232 million oz/354.098 million =52.30% of comex
ii) Comex withdrawals: 2
a) out of Delaware: 1931.800 oz
b) out of CNT: 300,067.040 oz
total withdrawal 301,998.840 oz
we had 4 adjustments:
a) dealer to customer
i) Manfra 59,450.921 oz
ii) Brinks 179,964.500 oz
iii) JPMorgan 90,385.730 oz
iv) 4,898.400 oz CNT
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.955 MILLION OZ
TOTAL REG + ELIG. 354.098 MILLION OZ
TOTAL NO OF CONTRACTS SERVED UPON THIS MONTH: 2838 CONTRACTS FOR 14,190,000 OZ
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JANUARY
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY: 10 NOTICES OR 50,000 OZ
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF FEB//2022 OI: 822 CONTRACTS LOSING 33 contracts on the day
FOR MARCH WE HAD A LOSS OF 2789 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 107,092 CONTRACTS.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 588 for 2,790,000 oz
Comex volumes: 39,529// est. volume today//weak
Comex volume: confirmed YESTERDAY: 69,132 contracts (fair)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 588 x 5,000 oz =. 2,790,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB (822) and the number of notices served upon today5880 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2021 contract month: 558 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB (822) – number of notices served upon today (558) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates 4,110,000 oz. .
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:
GLD
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $10.10//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES
JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES
JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.15//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.10 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $10.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $10.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN UNBELIEVABLE DEPOSIT OF 27.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES
JAN 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.86 TONNES
JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.86 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $29.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.44 TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES
JAN 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES
JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.65//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $19.25/A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.08 TONNES
JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWLA OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.83 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.30//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.99 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $10.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.31 TONNES
Jan 4/WITH GOLD UP $14.00//A HUGE CHANGE OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.31 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $14.05 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES.
DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.94 TONNES FROM THE GLD/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES
DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $12.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.57 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.05 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.57 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65 TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.37 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.20 TONNES
DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $7.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.20 TONNES
CLOSING INVENTORY: 1014.26 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
SLV
JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ//
JAN 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS : NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//
JAN 27/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//
JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//
JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.311 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ/
.JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.8 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 532.692 MILLION OZ//.
JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.792 MILLION OZ
JAN 20/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.998 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.792 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 71 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.942 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 525.804 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF 1.11 MILLION OZ AND 1.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.246 MILLION OZ//
JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ//
JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//
JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ/.
JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.
JAN 7/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.
JAN 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL PF 226,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ?/
JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//
JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//
JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.219 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//
DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//
DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//
DEC30/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.624 MILLILON OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//
DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ/
DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.682 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ//
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681
DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ//
DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.883 MILLION OZ/
DEC 21/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.728 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.085 MILLION OZ
DEC 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.282 MILLION OZ
DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.282 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY: 533.801 MILLION OZ
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1.PETER SCHIFF
Peter Schiff: Consumers Are Concerned, Investors Are Clueless
MONDAY, JAN 31, 2022 – 08:15 AM
Is bitcoin an inflation hedge?
Peter Schiff recently appeared on RT Boom Bust with Natalie Brunell of Coin Stories to discuss inflation and whether bitcoin is a hedge. Peter said bitcoin is not an inflation hedge. He called it a “speculative token” with its price driven by supply and demand.

But what about gold? It didn’t perform like an inflation hedge in 2021 despite the inflation freight train. Peter said the reason gold has had some problems is because the market wrongly believes the Fed.
They believe Powell when he says he’s going to do whatever it takes to bring inflation back down to 2%. He’s going to raise interest rates. He’s going to start shrinking the balance sheet. And the markets are believing Powell. But I think he’s just bluffing. And even if he follows through with the rate hikes he’s promised, that’s too little too late. It’s not going to be nearly enough to slow down inflation. And so, it’s not going to restrain gold.”
The type of rate hikes and balance sheet reduction necessary to get ahead of the inflation curve would be too much for the bubble economy to bear.
If Powell actually tried to fight inflation, he would destroy the bubble economy. The stock market would crash. We’d be in a massive recession. Lots of unemployment. A huge financial crisis. And we would force the government into insolvency. Once the markets come to terms with reality, they’re going to be buying gold.”
Natalie agreed that the Fed can’t fight inflation and will be forced to pivot back to providing liquidity to the market. She said that will send both stocks and bitcoin higher.
So where will consumers look to hedge? Will they turn to gold? Bitcoin? Or possibly other cryptocurrencies that are out there?
Peter said right now most investors aren’t even really worried about inflation.
They believe the Fed. So, they think that the inflation problem is going to be solved.”
But at some point, people will realize that it’s actually going to get worse. The Fed is ultimately forced to do an about-face because Powell actually thinks he can raise rates without hurting the economy.
He thinks we have this strong economy. We don’t. We have a gigantic bubble. And even the smallest of pins is going to prick it. In fact, just talking about raising rates, and this has already pricked the bubble. We’re already pretty much in a bear market now. And so, I think that sometime this year, whether it happens before the first rate hike or after, Powell’s going to cave and he’s going to go back to bigger QE and rates go back to zero. And that’s when the markets are finally going to understand the predicament that we’re in.”
Peter said the markets should realize it already. “But for some reason, they need a safe to drop on their head.”
And when that happens, then they’re going to be looking for inflation hedges. They’re not going to care about bitcoin. That’s for gamblers. They’re going to look for a real store of value and they’re going to be buying gold. They may be buying silver as well. And I think they’re going to be buying all sorts of real assets to get dollars.”
Peter emphasized that consumers are concerned about inflation. Consumer sentiment data bears this out. But Peter said investors are clueless.
Consumers are very concerned. And they should be. And unfortunately, it’s going to get much worse for consumers.”
END
END
2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James RICKARDS
Markets Have Seen This Movie Before (Spoiler Alert: The Ending Is Horrible)
MONDAY, JAN 31, 2022 – 06:30 AM
Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,
As I expected, the Fed didn’t raise rates this week at its January FOMC meeting.
If you were thinking the Fed would have to begin raising rates to counteract inflation, you’re probably going to have to wait until March, when the Fed’s Open Market Committee meets again.
The Fed says it “will soon be appropriate” to raise rates. It also says it will end asset purchases in March, so all signs point to a March rate hike.
How did the stock market react to this week’s messaging from the Fed?
[ZH: The initial reaction was a puke across all major US equity markets… followed by the ubiquitous overnight ramp to erase the loss. Thursday saw more selling at the open which extended into the US cash open on Friday.]

{ZH: At which point, a buying panic ensued, lifting The Dow and S&P back into the green post-FOMC, Nasdaq down modestly, but Small Caps crushed.]
The All-Important 10-Year Treasury
Yields on the all-important 10-year Treasury note spiked to 1.876% on Wednesday – a 10bps surge. That’s an earthquake in bond land. [ZH: But, by the end of the week, amid fears of policy errors, the 10=year yield had tumbled back to unchanged post-FOMC.]

Ten-year yields opened the year under 1.6%, and the increase has spooked the stock market.
The 10-year note yield is a good proxy for long-term investment in mortgages, construction and infrastructure projects and therefore reflects expectations about the real economy.
Until recently, the interim high yield on the 10-year note had been 1.745% on March 31, 2021. Rates fell through the summer of 2021 and then began rising again, but the rate spikes fell short of that 1.745% level and then fell back.
That pattern prevailed until Jan. 14, 2022, when rates broke through and hit 1.794%. That was the highest level since Jan. 13, 2020, almost exactly two years ago, and before the pandemic became widespread in the U.S.
At that time, rates had declined from their pre-pandemic interim high of 2.761% on Jan. 23, 2019, almost exactly three years ago. Again, today’s yield is 1.848%.
What Are Bonds Saying About Inflation?
But if rates are not fundamentally higher than they were two years ago and are significantly lower than they were three years ago, what does that say?
If a wave of inflation is about to smash into us, why aren’t rates at 3.0% or higher? A yield of 1.876% is pretty puny if the inflation narrative is correct.
People throw the word “stimulus” around, even those who should know better, and say, “The Fed’s cut rates to zero. That’s stimulus. The Fed’s printing money. That’s stimulus.”
They then say, “If you’re going to print that much money, you’re going to get inflation.”
The Reality
But none of that is true. It’s far too simplistic. Reality is much more complicated than the simple money printing equals inflation narrative. Yes, the money printing is true. But it’s not inflationary unless the money gets put to use in the economy.
If the money gets put to use in the form of widespread lending and spending, that’s a setup where you have to think hard about inflation. But that’s not what we’re seeing.
What happens then to the money the Fed creates?
The big banks have accounts at the Fed. They take the money and they leave it at the Fed in the form of excess reserves, meaning basically more reserves than the law requires them to have.
So the money doesn’t go anywhere. It’s not being invested. It’s not being loaned out. It’s not being borrowed. It’s not being spent. So it doesn’t matter how much there is if the money doesn’t go anywhere, and that’s exactly the situation we’re facing.
It’s the Velocity, Stupid
I often refer to the velocity of money. Quite simply, velocity is the turnover of money, the rate at which money changes hands.
The Fed can create money just by buying bonds with money it creates out of thin air. But velocity is a psychological phenomenon.
It all depends how consumers feel. If they feel prosperous, if they feel that their job is secure, if they feel that their businesses are doing well, they might be more willing to borrow money to expand the business or spend money on personal consumption.
But we’re not seeing that. We’re seeing velocity drop. Some people are getting money, whether it’s in the form of government handouts or slightly higher wages, but they’re saving it. They’re not spending it. That doesn’t add up to rampant inflation.
I realize I may be in the minority, but the bond market is telling us that inflation will be much tamer than expected (I expect inflation to return with a vengeance eventually, but not yet).
In other words, the U.S. may be seeing peak inflation and peak interest rates for this cycle.
The One Thing the Fed Excels At
I expect the U.S. economy will slow from here (for many reasons including the pandemic, supply chain disruptions and excess debt), rates will level off and then decline and the dollar will weaken.
Of course, the Fed is preparing to tighten monetary policy at a time when the economy shows weakening. It’s tightening into weakness. But that’s no surprise.
Looking at the entire history of the Fed since 1913, it’s proven that it’s really good at wrecking the economy by doing the wrong thing at the wrong time. And it’s in the process of doing that again.
I feel like we’re watching the same movie that we’ve already seen. We’re seeing this movie again because the Fed did this before. From 2008–2013, the Fed did what they did the last couple of years.
“Normalizing”
They bought bonds, created money supply, blew up the balance sheet and cut rates to zero. The zero interest rate policy, the money printing, they did that from 2008–2013. They took the Fed’s balance sheet from about $800 billion to about $4 trillion (today it’s dramatically higher because of its response to the pandemic).
Then they tried to “normalize.” They began raising rates aggressively. They got the fed funds rate up to 2.25%, with nine 25-basis-point increases between December 2015 and December 2018.
They trimmed the balance sheet down. Not greatly, but they brought it down from about $4.5 trillion to about $3.7 trillion. That’s not an insignificant reduction.
Markets Have Seen This Movie Before
In other words, the Fed was trying to raise rates and reduce the balance sheet, and they were succeeding. But it all culminated on Dec. 24, 2018, in what I call the Christmas Eve Massacre.

The Fed sank the stock market. It fell 20% in 2½ months.
And that was after a long bull market from 2009–2018, when stocks tripled over that time period.
The lesson is that when the Fed tries to normalize, they can’t do it. They’re caught in a trap of their own creation, with no way out, or at least no easy way out without causing a lot of pain.
They’re about to make things worse with tightening into weakness, with tapering and with rate increases. The market already sees this coming because they’ve seen the movie before. They know how it ends.
And it ends poorly
end
LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold demand more than recovers in 2021
The World Gold Council has just released its much awaited Gold Demand Trends report for Q4 2021 and for the year as a whole, and what it has to say is probably more than encouraging for the gold investor. It showed that the world has perhaps more than fully recovered from the Covid- inflicted downturn of 2020, with demand levels increasing as the year progressed. Indeed the Q4 gold demand figure was the highest for around three years and the trend is upwards. The WGC’s own classified highlights are set out below:Q4 2021 demand reached a 10-quarter high of 1,147t.A jump in jewellery demand, together with a marked slowdown in ETF outflows, drove much of the Q4 recovery.Gold ETFs saw net annual outflows of 173t (US$9bn). Outflows were heavily concentrated in Q1, slowing to trivial levels by Q4.Annual jewellery consumer demand rebounded to pre- pandemic levels. In value terms, this equated to US$123bn, virtually matching the previous record of US$124bn from 2013.Bar and coin investment jumped 31% to an eight-year high of 1,180t.Retail investors sought a safe haven against rising inflation and ongoing uncertainty caused by the pandemic.Central banks bought 463t of gold in 2021.Global gold reserves are now just under 35,600t, their highest for almost 30 years.Total annual gold supply fell marginally to 4,666t. A 2% increase in mine production was counteracted by a sharp 11% drop in recycling.On the face of things, gold still remains in a small surplus, but demand has been rising and this could rapidly turn around. The latest price downturn after last week’s FOMC meeting looks to have been overdone, as is usually the case with significant price movements up or down, and looked to be recovering toward the $1,800 level again towards the end of the week. We’d expect it to break back up through this psychological level this week and perhaps regain $1,820 or higher.After all one thing which came out of the Jerome Powell post-FOMC meeting press conference was that inflation was running higher, and looked like being in place for longer, than had previously been admitted. The negative impact on gold was because this was interpreted by commentators and analysts as suggesting the Fed might be more aggressive in raising interest rates than had been previously anticipated. But whatever the Fed decides interest rates are unlikely to be increased sufficiently to bring real rates out of negative territory, and negative real rates are positive for gold – particularly if general equities are negatively affected at the same time.Positive U.S. equity price movement on Friday will have given the Fed some encouragement that a move to higher interest rates may not impact markets too adversely. But this should be set against equity price falls on the prior three days, and we would anticipate a further downwards correction this week. After all, businesses will have become used to Fed money being pumped into the markets indirectly via the central bank’s bond and security buying programmes and accompanied by ultra- low interest rates. TThe prospect of all this falling away is almost certainly bound to adversely affect markets. If U.S. equities fall further in the weeks ahead, then it is certainly possible that the Fed will temper some of its tightening moves, as it has done in similar situations in the past and, if so, this would likely give a sharp fillip to the gold price.Whatever the Fed decides to do don’t count out gold, therefore, as the ultimate wealth protection investment. Ongoing inflation is continuing to eat away at dollar purchasing power and that of other currencies, and gold has always in the past helped protect against such value degradation. It may suffer ups and downs, but overall it tends to hold its own when other protective options may suffer. Keep the faith.
30 Jan 2022.
end
3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
For your interest…
The gold rush returns to California
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-01-30 10:34 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Becki Robins
Undark Magazine, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Monday, January 24, 2022
On the outskirts of the northern California town of Grass Valley, a massive concrete silo looms over the weeds and crumbling pavement. Nearby, unseen, a mine shaft drops 3,400 feet into the earth.
These are the remains of Grass Valley’s Idaho-Maryland Mine, a relic from the town’s gold mining past. Numerous mines like this one once fueled Grass Valley’s economy, and today, Gold Rush artifacts are part of the town’s character: A stamp mill, once used to break up gold-bearing rock, now guards an intersection on Main Street, and old ore carts and other rusty remnants can be spotted in parking lots and storefronts around town.
Gold still exists in the veins of the abandoned mine, and Rise Gold, the mining corporation that purchased the mine in 2017, has reason to believe that reopening it makes financial sense.
When the mine shut down in 1956, it wasn’t because the gold was drying up; it was because of economic policy. The 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement had established a new international monetary system to create stability in exchange rates. As part of the effort, the price of gold was fixed at $35 per ounce. Gold mining became unprofitable in the U.S. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
end
4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
| Live from the Vault: Episode 59. |
| Hi Harvey, In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire reveals the two main reasons behind the current bullish shift in gold and silver and elaborates further on the fragile ETF flywheel, with gold set to rally. The precious metals expert continues to monitor the influence of Basel III on the markets and explains the mechanisms behind futures market backwardation in response to ever-tightening physical supply.Watch the video via the button below, or listen on Apple podcasts or Spotify.WATCH NOW |
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END
Andy Schectman:
Silver premiums spike as COMEX paper silver crashes & burns
As the pressure on the COVID Deep State banking system mounts, physical silver premiums have spiked, while COMEX paper silver is crashing and burning.
And to offer you a view from the frontlines of the physical silver market, Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin joined me on the show to share what’s happening at this very minute.
So if you want to know what’s really going on with the silver price, click to watch this timely video now!
https://lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?pfvID=17440
5.OTHER COMMODITIES/
6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES
Steve Brown..
Crypto Apes Take a Hit
“Veritably these are young people born in an era of the vaporware US dollar, and fully programmed and committed to further its vaporware use.“
The Fed has created trillions upon trillions in debt, what some call money. After the government pays its bills with those trillions, it’s important to keep the result out of the pockets of the people. And if the bitcoin/crypto black hole for $ did not already exist, it would have to be invented.
A tech whitepaper produced by the mysterious “Satoshi Nakamoto” founded bitcoin, just subsequent to the financial collapse of the United States in 2008-2009. Whether Satoshi was some covert entity behind the monetary scene hoping to provide a place for inflationary fiat $ to go… or some brilliant individual who (by coincidence) wanted to do the same, is still a matter for conjecture and debate.
Regardless, the importance of bitcoin was to address a macro monetary issue by providing an inflationary asset store. The idea that bitcoin is a stable and reliable asset store is as fake and imaginary as the virtual apes who revel in their own virtual $ existence in the virtual DeFi world, and is the outcome when the world monetary system itself is built on fiat fakery. Link: https://chaindebrief.com/what-is-wonderland-time-avalanche/Justin Sun Founder Binance crypto apeDanielle Sestagalli, Wonderland ape
Before 2009, whenever a monetary scam was discovered by the state, the state usually prosecuted and/or shutdown the scam. But what happens when the scam benefits the monetary system? And by extension the state, for example the quasi-governmental Federal Reserve*?
In the Novus Confidential series Why the Fed Loves Bitcoin parts 1, 2 and 3 the Fed’s connection to bitcoin is documented. A covert governmental connection is shown by the CIA’S Bitcoin Heist.** And soon after bitcoin’s inception, Wall Street and the world’s largest ‘investors’ (but actually black holes of finance) namely: Vanguard Group; StateStreet; BlackRock etc*** gamed hundreds of billions via such dubious share issues as Microstrategy, Global Bitcoin Trust, Riot Blockchain, MARA, Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation and many more Wall Street share issues.
Oh yes, there is plenty of governmental whining about bitcoin, but such histrionics seldom lead to any action. So far KYC and AML regulations have been it. Vanguard lackey CNBC admits that the government does things with its “secret massive stockpile of bitcoin” but fails to detail the extent of governmental seizure, and that the Fed-Treasury need to sterilize inflationary $ by hundreds of billions, via crypto. For defacto proof that the federal government uses bitcoin to its advantage, simply consider that the OCC could prevent any accredited US bank from transacting with any bitcoin exchange… but does not.
Point is that one good scam deserves another — whatever its origin — and a large criminal element has piggy-backed off the Fed’s own crypto criminality to its own advantage. Such lawsuits as vs XDB digitalbits and tether seldom make the mainstream media, which is pumped with pro-crypto nonsense by Vanguard Group’s major media outlets, from CNBC to Verizon (Yahoo) and a myriad of other bitcoin bullshit media operations. But occasionally bitcoin apes/ criminals do make the major media news for their criminal notoriety.
Two years ago Novus Confidential covered crypto exchange failures in Why Bitcoin? Why Now? which touched on the strange case of bitcoin/ETH ape Gerald Cotten. Cotten, at the age of thirty, supposedly left this world due to Crohn’s disease and by mysterious circumstances that are still not fully documented or understood. Link: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/11/the-strange-tale-of-quadriga-gerald-cotten While Novus Confidential originally believed that Cotten faked his own death, after years of research, the conclusion is that Cotten is in fact deceased.
But his partner in crime, Michael Patryn AKA Omar Dhanani, is not. Dhanani-Patryn was sought for years in the Quadriga fraud case, and was only just voted out of his position as “treasurer” of the Wonderland token . Link: https://beincrypto.com/wonderland-cfo-outed-as-ex-convict-and-quadrigacx-co-founder-michael-patryn-steps-down/ Ape Sestagalli said she felt a criminal’s past should not affect their future, “All frogs for me are equal,” said Sestagalli. So perhaps Sestagalli would do even better as New York State’s attorney general. Truly the depth of criminality in crypto cannot be estimated, calculated, or even remotely imagined. And yet crypto’s criminality is only outdone by the criminality of the US-led monetary system itself. But now the question is what Canada’s law enforcement will do about bad actor Dhanani aka Mike Patryn?Ape Omar Dhanani alias Patryn, crypto crook
end
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED XX
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3813
HANG SANG CLOSED UP 252.18 PTS OR 1.07%
2. Nikkei closed UP 284.64 PTS OR 1.07%
3. Europe stocks ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 97.17/Euro RISES TO 1.1160-
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.176/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 115.45/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 87.36 and Brent: 88.98-
3f Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE CLOSED XX// OFF- SHORE DOWN
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.0.062%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 1.31% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 0.75%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.37: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM
3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.88
3k Gold at $1791.15 silver at: 22.58 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 57/100 in roubles/dollar AT 77.61
3m oil into the 87 dollar handle for WTI and 88 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 115.45 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9329– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0411 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.801 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.103 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.38
US Futures Start The Week With More Wild Swings In Another Volatile, Illiquid Session
MONDAY, JAN 31, 2022 – 08:03 AM
After a rollercoaster week that ended just barely higher following a late meltup on Friday, overnight volatile US stock futures swung to start the week, with Nasdaq 100 futures leading gains after rallying on Friday, before turning red and threatening to fizzle a global equity rally amid persistent worries over the Federal Reserve’s plan to hike interest rates this year. Emini S&P futures were down 0.5% or 21 points to 4401, after rising as high as 4437 and dropping as low as 4395 in another extremely illiquid session where China being offline for the week due to Lunar New Year did not help; Nasdaq futures were down 0.1% while Dow futures were lower 0.7%. Technology stocks led gains on the Stoxx Europe 600. Meanwhile, the dollar fell and oil rallied.

As investors reconcile to a hawkish U.S. central bank coupled with strong earnings, the expensive parts of the U.S. stock market are undergoing a valuation re-rating along with the bond markets. However, traders do see opportunities in less expensive segments of the global markets, such as European and emerging-market stocks (especially China), as well as higher-yielding currencies where rate hikes have already happened. The only thing money managers are certain about for the year is greater volatility.
The equity selloff “marks a long overdue correction rather than the start of a bear market,” BCA Research Inc. analysts including Peter Berezin and Melanie Kermadjian wrote in a note. “Stocks often suffer a period of indigestion when bond yields rise suddenly, but usually bounce back as long as yields do not move into economically restrictive territory.”
“The sharp fall in many high-quality tech firms is already creating opportunities for longer-term investors to add exposure,” Mark Haefele, the ever bullish chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note. “Rather than giving up on tech in the face of near-term headwinds, we recommend a more selective approach.”
In premarket trading, major technology and internet names such as Netflix Inc. and Tesla Inc. rose, with the electric carmaker getting an upgrade to outperform at Credit Suisse. Citi raised its recommendation on Netflix (NFLX US) and Spotify (SPOT US) to buy from neutral after pressure on subscription-based stocks. Netflix rises 2.7% in premarket, Spotify +1.8%. Citrix fell 3.7% in early New York trading. Elliott Investment Management and Vista Equity Partners are said to be nearing an agreement to acquire software-maker for about $13 billion, marginally less than the company’s current market cap. Other notable pre-market movers:
- Tesla (TSLA US) gains 2.4% in premarket trading after Credit Suisse upgrades the electric- vehicle maker to outperform following a sharp pullback and on “highly favorable” fundamentals.
- Beyond Meat (BYND US) growth prospects in the U.S. foodservice channel and international segments aren’t properly reflected in the shares, according to Barclays, which upgrades to overweight from underweight. Shares +4.4% in premarket.
- Alibaba (BABA US) and other Chinese tech firms were in focus as traders interpreted comments by China’s cyberspace regulator as positive toward the sector. Alibaba up 1.5% in premarket.
- Pullback in Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) shares creates a good entry point into a premier medtech name which has executed strongly during the pandemic, Piper Sandler writes in note as upgrades to overweight. Shares up 0.6% in premarket.
Meanwhile, the stellar run of profitability in US companies continues this quarter. Of the 169 S&P 500 companies that have posted results so far, 81% have met or exceeded expectations. Profits have come about 5% more than the levels predicted. Companies from Alphabet to Exxon report financial results this week in the U.S., while the European earnings calendar is also full, with the likes of UBS Group AG and Roche Holding AG publishing their figures (more in our weekly preview post).
As Bloomberg notes, healthy earnings may cushion the impact of a technology-led selloff in the U.S. as investors adjust to a higher interest-rate regime. That may also help to alleviate some of the concerns sparked by geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine.
European equities were well bid, with the Stoxx 600 gauge advancing for a fourth time in five days and an index of global equities pared its biggest monthly drop since March 2020. Euro Stoxx 50 rises as much as 1.6%, close to recouping last week’s losses, before drifting off best levels. Germany and Italy lead gains. Tech is the best performing Stoxx 600 sector, miners and travel underperform. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
- Electrolux shares rise as much as 6%, the most since July 2020 and the biggest gainer on the Stockholm large-cap OMXS30 index, after several brokers upgraded the shares or their target prices. Handelsbanken upgrades to buy, citing “pricing power hiding in plain sight.”
- Vodafone shares rise as much as 4.5% after a Bloomberg report that activist investor Cevian Capital has built a stake in the firm. It highlights material “hidden value” in the U.K. telecoms operator, according to Andrew Lee, analyst at Goldman Sachs (buy).
- Adva Optical Networking shares rise as much as 16%, the most intraday since August, after the approval threshold for Adtran Inc.’s voluntary offer was crossed at the end of the initial acceptance period on Jan. 26.
- Aumann shares rise as much as 9% after the company reported margin guidance which Citi sees as positive indicator for ’22 profitability.
- KPN shares rise as much as 2.7% to their highest level since March 2021 after results. Analysts are positive on the company’s buyback plans, while KBC said KPN’s results are “comforting.” KPN forecast adjusted Ebitda after leases for 2022 of about EU2.40 billion.
- Saipem shares fall as much as 29% in Milan, the most intraday since 2013, after the Italian oil drilling specialist issued a warning on 2021 earnings and said it would hold discussions with creditors and shareholders for a financing package.
Monetary-policy decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of England will help shape the market mood in the days ahead, while investors continue to watch for evidence of economic recovery from the pandemic effects. China’s economy continued to slow at the start of the year as manufacturing and services moderated.

Earlier in the session, equities in Asia Pacific climbed in a quiet trading day, paring a portion of their worst monthly decline since July amid continued investor concerns about the pace of tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.8%, reversing an early loss of 0.4%, as consumer discretionary and communication services shares climbed. Alibaba and Tencent were among the biggest contributors to gains as the Hang Seng Tech Index closed up 2.4%. Asian tech stocks followed their U.S. peers higher after bellwethers including Apple and Microsoft announced strong quarterly results and outlooks. Benchmarks in Japan, India and Hong Kong rose, with the latter in a shortened trading session at the start of Lunar New Year holidays. Markets in China, South Korea and Taiwan were closed. The Asian benchmark is on track for a decline of about 4.7% in January, as more traders price in five interest-rate hikes this year and after Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, told the Financial Times that a 50 basis-point rate increase is on the table. This comes while China’s economy continued to slow at the start of the year. “Powell’s current inflation-fighting mode makes it more likely that a new policy error will occur,” Citi Private Bank strategists led by David Bailin wrote in a note. Citi has increased its overweight on China on preparations for “greater macro easing and growth support,” they wrote
Japanese equities climbed, erasing an early loss, as the market continued to rebound from losses on concerns over Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Electronics makers were the biggest boost to the Topix, which rose 1%, erasing a drop of as much as 0.8%. Tokyo Electron and SoftBank Group were the largest contributors to a 1.1% gain in the Nikkei 225. The Topix rose 1.9% Friday, paring its weekly decline to 2.6%. The gauge is still down 4.8% this year.
India’s benchmark equity index bounced back after losing 6.6% in the last two weeks, boosted by gains in Infosys Ltd., which climbed the most since mid-October. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 1.4% to 58,014.17 in Mumbai, joining peers across Asia as investors took a breather from volatility induced by possible U.S. Fed rate action. Infosys Ltd. rose 3% and offered the biggest boost to the index. Still, the gauge is down 0.4% in January, its biggest monthly decline since November. The NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 1.4% on Monday. Fed’s near-term rate hike possibility and selling by foreign investors weighed on the key indexes this month, Prashanth Tapse, vice president at Mehta Equities Ltd. wrote in a note. “All eyes will now be on the GDP numbers and the union budget to be announced on February 1,” he said. All but one of 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by a measure of realty companies. On the earnings front, out of the 25 Nifty 50 companies that have announced results so far, 13 either met or exceeded expectations, 10 missed, while two can’t be compared.
In rates, Treasury yields advanced while the curve flattened as bond markets braced for successive rate hikes by Fed starting March. Yields were cheaper by more than 3bp across front-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s spread by ~2bp on the day; 10-year yields around 1.79%, cheaper by more than 2bps vs Friday’s close with bunds lagging by additional 3bp.Treasuries remain cheaper across the curve after an opening gap higher in yields led by front-end, focused on expected path of Fed rate hikes this year. Long-end may draw support from month-end flows. US outperformed bunds, gilts and most euro-zone bond markets. S&P 500 futures are under slight pressure, near Friday’s high. Bund and gilt curves bear flatten with short-end Germany underperforming. Peripheral spreads tighten on the better risk on mood. Italy snaps tighter on the open as political uncertainties ease following Sergio Mattarella’s re-election as president over the weekend.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Swiss franc and the yen. The Australian dollar led G-10 gains and rebounded from an 18-month low against the greenback as traders and local exporters hedged for a hawkish tilt from the nation’s central bank on Tuesday. Month-end flows were also supporting the currency. The euro crept higher, nearing $1.12, and Bunds sold off, led by the belly and underperforming Treasuries, while the yield premium to hold Italian government bonds over German securities narrowed. The pound rallied amid a broad risk-on tone in global currency trading, with U.K. focus on this week’s BOE meeting. Asset managers added to short bets against the currency for the first time in six weeks, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data for the week ended Jan. 25. Figures also showed leveraged funds added long contracts to become the most bullish since early November. Norway’s krone rallied amid supportive oil prices while it shrugged off the news that Norges Bank won’t conduct any foreign exchange transactions on behalf of the government in February. The central bank sold foreign exchange equivalent to NOK250m a day in January. Japan’s 10-year benchmark yield rose to a six-year high following the recent surge in Treasury equivalents. TRY leads gains in EMFX, strengthening just shy of 2% against the dollar before fading near 13.40/USD.
Crypto markets are subdued with Bitcoin slipping back beneath the 37,000 level overnight. BoE’s executive director for financial stability said cryptocurrency does not yet pose a risk to UK’s financial stability, according to The Times.
In commodities, crude futures are in the green but drift off Asia’s highs. WTI slips after a brief retest of $88 in late Asia; Brent tops $91. Oil markets headed for the biggest January gain in at least 30 years. Spot gold is range bound near $1,789/oz. Most base metals trade well with much of the complex up 0.6-0.8%. LME aluminum lags.
Looking at today’s calendar, it’s a relatively quiet day, with Euro Area Q4 GDP, Italy Q4 GDP, Germany preliminary January CPI, US January MNI Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and Japan’s December jobless rate. The Fed’s Daly speaks. Looking at the week ahead, earnings are due from Alphabet, Amazon, Exxon Mobil, Ford Motor, Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, Sony, Spotify, UBS Group. Tomorrow we get the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, Manufacturing PMIs, including euro zone; OPEC+ meeting on output is on Wednesday as is the latest Euro zone CPI. On Thursday, the Bank of England, European Central Bank rate decisions; also we get the Fed Board of Governors confirmation hearing and the U.S. factory orders, initial jobless claims, durable goods. Finally, on Friday, we get the payrolls report for January, while in China, winter Olympics kick off with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin due to attend opening ceremony.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,431.50
- STOXX Europe 600 up 1.0% to 470.31
- German 10Y yield little changed at -0.03%
- Euro up 0.2% to $1.1170
- Brent Futures up 0.7% to $90.62/bbl
- MXAP up 0.7% to 184.12
- MXAPJ up 0.7% to 602.30
- Nikkei up 1.1% to 27,001.98
- Topix up 1.0% to 1,895.93
- Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 23,802.26
- Shanghai Composite down 1.0% to 3,361.44
- Sensex up 1.4% to 58,004.69
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 6,971.63
- Kospi up 1.9% to 2,663.34
- Brent Futures up 0.7% to $90.62/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,790.58
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.22% to 97.05
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- U.S. senators are close to agreeing on a Russia sanctions bill that could include penalties even if President Vladimir Putin doesn’t send troops into Ukraine, Foreign Relations Committee Chair Bob Menendez said
- Moscow further boosted troop levels around the Ukrainian border at the weekend, adding to President Vladimir Putin’s options should he decide on a military incursion, the Pentagon said.
- The Federal Reserve could opt to raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points if a more aggressive approach to taming inflation is needed, Raphael Bostic, president of the Fed’s Atlanta branch, told the Financial Times in an interview
- The Federal Reserve’s shift toward a major reduction of its footprint in the U.S. bond market this year has upended expectations for sustained cutbacks to the Treasury’s quarterly sales of longer-term debt — forcing dealers to gird for bigger auction sizes down the road
- The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to announce the end of its bond purchases at its policy decision, setting the stage for an interest-rate hike in the third quarter
- BOE policy makers led by Governor Andrew Bailey are expected to hike interest rates to 0.5% on Thursday, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg. That would complete the first back-to-back increase since 2004 and open the question of whether more increases will follow
- The ECB’s go-slow approach to monetary policy tightening is putting a wall around local bond markets against the global turmoil sparked by its U.S. counterpart
- China’s official manufacturing PMI declined to 50.1, the National Bureau of Statistics said Sunday, just above the median estimate of 50. The non-manufacturing gauge, which measures activity in the construction and services sectors, fell to 51.1, also marginally above the consensus forecast. The 50-mark separates expansion from contraction
- Investors are plowing money into hedge funds that don’t rely on the next macro genius or star stockpicker, but instead offer an army of traders who invest in an array of strategies. These behemoths secured pretty much all of the new money in the hedge fund industry last year, cementing a tectonic shift that’s accelerated since the pandemic
- Sales of bonds with sustainable targets have jumped sevenfold in Europe this month, competing with green debt to become the dominant force in the ethical market.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asian stocks were mostly positive but with conditions thinned due to closures on Chinese New Year’s Eve. ASX 200 (-0.2%) was subdued with mining names pressured by lower metal prices and weaker output updates. Nikkei 225 (+1.1%) reclaimed the 27,000 level with the index underpinned by a weaker currency. Hang Seng (+1.1%) finished the shortened trading day higher with the index unfazed by mixed Chinese PMI data, while there was also an absence of Stock Connect flows with participants in the mainland away for the Lunar New Year.
Top Asian News
- Asian Stocks Climb With Tech Sector to Trim January Tumble
- Sri Lanka’s Inflation Accelerates to Asia’s Fastest on FX Crunch
- Sri Lanka Jan. Consumer Prices Rise 14.2% Y/y, Est. +13.2%
- JPMorgan Strategists See Better Risk-Reward for China and EM
European bourse kicked off the week with gains across the board before momentum waned (Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%; Stoxx 600 +0.6%). European sectors have reconfigured to a more defensive bias since the European cash open; Tech outperforms and Basic Resource lag. US equity futures have eased off best levels to conform to a mostly downward bias; NQ (+0.5%) remains the outperformer.
Top European News
- U.K. Homebuilders ‘Deeply Undervalued,’ Have Spare Cash: HSBC
- Virgin Media O2 Said to Open Fiber Joint Venture Funding Talks
- Deliveroo Rises; Arete Cites Takeover Potential for Upgrade
- Orban Says Top EU Court Will Likely Reject Rule-of-Law Challenge
In FX, the dollar drifts along with other safe haven currencies as risk appetite improves into month end, but rebalancing flows should help the Buck find a base. Aussie regains composure in time for RBA policy meeting and manufacturing PMIs, while Kiwi tags along in slipstream amidst calls for the RBNZ to lift OCR to 2.5% by November. Pound holds firm pending Gray report and Partygate statement from PM Johnson. Euro regroups as Italian President Matarella agrees to serve second term and Portuguese PM Costa wins snap election unexpectedly. Turkish President Erdogan said they will lower interest rates and that inflation will fall too, while he also commented that problems which stem from a volatile FX rate and inflation are temporary, according to Reuters.
In commodities, WTI Mar’ and Brent Apr’ have been somewhat choppy with eyes on Russia and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting; NatGas holds onto overnight gains. Spot gold trades sideways below USD 1,800/oz ahead of a risk-packed week. LME copper meanwhile has seen a mild rebound from the USD 9,500/t with the red metal lacklustre overnight amid the absence of Chinese participants ahead of the Lunar New Year. German Nord Stream 2 approval is not expected during H1 this year, according to FAZ. IEA said Chinese gas demand growth forecast is to slow to 8% this year from 12% growth in 2021, while European gas demand forecast is to fall by 4.5% this year on higher coal consumption in the power sector, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
- 9:45am: Jan. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 61.8, prior 63.1, revised 64.3
- 10:30am: Jan. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 8.5, prior 8.1
- 11:30am: Fed’s Daly Speaks at Reuters Live Event
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s deja-vu all over again. I’m having yet more knee surgery today and will spend another 6 weeks on crutches with no weight bearing. Ironically I tore a hole in the cartilage while rehabbing the other knee. The fact that I can’t do squats and lunges without tearing my cartilage probably tells you the direction of travel for my knees. My surgeon wants to delay knee replacements as long as possible but I’ll be there eventually. Safe to say I’m unlikely to play tennis, squash, cricket and football etc, ever again. My opponents might suggest I didn’t really play them in the first place. So I exist to get my body back on the golf course asap.
Talking of football, if last week was a match it would have been one of the most exciting 0-0 draws in history. On the face of it, future historians might conclude that it must have been one of the dullest weeks in the NASDAQ’s history given that we closed the week +0.01% higher than the previous Friday, the fifth smallest % weekly move in the history of the index once we get down to the decimals. However beneath the surface there was extraordinary volatility as every day saw swings between 2.75% and 6%. Friday was seeing a recovery anyway but in the last 90 minutes the S&P 500 climbed c.2% and the NASDAQ over 2.5%. The S&P also ended the week higher (+0.77%), and saw the first positive week of the year. Until the market and the Fed stop leapfrogging each other in terms of interest rate expectations, the market will stay volatile. With such an extreme month, today’s month-end might see some position squaring so maybe there’ll be another late swing/surge/slump in the last 90 minutes.
Outside of stocktaking after a hectic month, what will this week hold in store for us? Well at least the Fed is out the way for now but central banks will continue to dominate the agenda as we move into February, with both the ECB and the Bank of England set to make their latest policy decisions on Thursday. Otherwise, there’ll be plenty of data to digest, including the all-important US jobs report on Friday, the final global PMIs tomorrow (manufacturing) and Thursday (services) and in the Euro Area there’s also the flash CPI reading for January (Wednesday) and the first look at GDP growth in Q4 (today). Earnings season will continue in full flow, with an additional 111 companies in the S&P 500 reporting, including Amazon (Thursday), Alphabet and Meta (both Wednesday). 56 report in the Stoxx 600.
China’s manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.1 on release yesterday, just above the 50 expected. The non-manufacturing slipped to 51.1, also marginally above consensus. Asian stock markets are trading higher this morning amid thin trading with markets in China and South Korea closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. The Nikkei (+1.39%) is up, erasing its opening losses while the Hang Seng (+1.07%) is also in positive territory.
In economic news, Japan’s factory output shrank (-1.0% m/m) in December, its first contraction in three months and weaker than market expectations of a -0.6% drop. It followed a +7.0% increase in November. Separately, retail sales (-1.0% m/m) in December unexpectedly declined (+0.3% expected) after witnessing an upwardly revised +1.3% gain in the previous month.
Moving ahead, stock futures in the US are edging up with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.28%), Nasdaq (+0.44%) and Dow Jones (+0.23%) all higher as we type. US 2s10s is 2bps flatter again at 58.3bps as the 2yr note has climbed just over 3bps this morning. At one point this morning we priced 5 Fed hikes for the first time although this has settled to around 4.93 as I type.
Going through some of the main events this week in more details now. Starting with the ECB, our economists updated their call (link here) at the start of last week and are now expecting a policy rate liftoff in December 2022 of 25bps. They’re also anticipating a faster pace of tightening, with 25bp hikes in the deposit rate per quarter from December 2022, until rates reach +0.5% in September 2023. In terms of what it means for this February meeting, they write in their preview (link here) that they expect the slow, step-by-step pivot to exit will continue. Their view is that President Lagarde will reiterate the ECB’s capacity to act once the inflation criteria in the rates guidance are met, whilst at the same time differentiating the needs of the Euro Area from the US.
The other central bank decision that day is from the Bank of England, and our economist writes in his preview (link here) that he expects the BoE to follow up their December rate hike with another 25bps increase, taking the Bank Rate to 0.5%. Furthermore, he expects that the MPC should confirm that any APF reinvestments will cease from here on out, resulting in around £38bn falling out of the Bank’s balance sheet this year.
The data highlight in a busy week will be payrolls Friday. Our US economists are expecting nonfarm payrolls to have grown by a relatively subdued +150k in January (in line with consensus), with the unemployment rate remaining at a post-pandemic low of 3.9%. Clearly Omicron will impact this data, so it’ll be tough to get a clear read though but Fed Chair Powell has already said that his personal view is that labour market conditions were consistent with maximum employment, “in the sense of the highest level of employment that is consistent with price stability.” The JOLTS report tomorrow will also be a good indicator of the tightness of the labour market and one we’ve preferred to payrolls as a lead indicator during the pandemic.
Otherwise, Wednesday’s flash CPI reading from the Euro Area for January will be interesting. Our economists expect that year-on-year inflation will subside to +4.3% from its peak of +5.0% in December, which was also the fastest pace since the formation of the single currency.
On the earnings side, we’ll get an array of reports this week as the season continues in full flow, including 111 companies from the S&P 500 and a further 56 in the STOXX 600. Among the highlights: ExxonMobil, PayPal, UPS, Starbucks, General Motors and UBS tomorrow. Then on Wednesday we’ll hear from Alphabet, Meta, AbbVie, Novo Nordisk, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Novartis, Qualcomm, T-Mobile US, Santander, Sony and Spotify. On Thursday, releases include Amazon, Roche, Eli Lilly, Merck & Co., Shell, Honeywell and Ford. Finally on Friday, there’s reports from Bristol Myers Squibb, Sanofi and Aon.
Finally, there’ll be a continued focus on the trajectory of oil prices over the week ahead, particularly with the OPEC+ group meeting on Wednesday to discuss a March production increase. With inflation running at multi-decade highs in numerous countries and Brent Crude having surpassed $90/bbl at points in trading over the week just gone for the first time since 2014, oil prices are likely to remain a significant issue for policymakers over the coming months. For YoY comparisons, Oil was around $55 this time last year.
Turning back on the week that was now. The Fed kept policy unchanged at its meeting, but signaled liftoff was live in March. A common refrain from the Chair was that this cycle was very different – above-trend growth, inflation well-above target, and an historically-tight labour market that now allow and call for a much faster pace of tightening. The market took the signal, ending the week pricing a 119% chance of a 25bp rate hike at March, or a meaningful probability of a 50bp hike. The total amount of 25bp hikes through 2022 also increased, to 4.7 hikes from around 4 at the start of the week. This squares with our US econ team’s updated call of five hikes this year following the meeting (link here) .
In response, 2yr treasury yields increased +16.1bps last week (-2.6bps Friday), as investors priced in a steeper hiking cycle. The prospect of a Fed-induced slowdown along with bubbling geopolitical tensions ensured that 10yr yields didn’t follow and were only slightly higher (+1.1bps) over the week (-3.0bps Friday), driving the 2s10s yield curve to its flattest level in more than a year at +60.3bps but nearly 100bps flatter in 10 months.
German yields were more subdued, with 10yr bunds +2.0bps (+1.4bps Friday) and the 2yr tenor +1.3bps higher on the week (+0.5bps Friday). Gilts, meanwhile, sold off a bit more, with the 10yr +7.3bps higher this week (+1.5bp Friday).
In equities, as has been a habit this year, the S&P 500 made an about-face late in the US session on Friday, finishing the day +2.43% higher, driving the index to its first positive weekly performance (+0.77%) of the year. Unsurprisingly, the Vix index of volatility closed the week still near its highest levels over the last year at 27.66pts. The NASDAQ also benefitted from the late Friday rally, increasing +3.13% on the day, making the index broadly unchanged (+0.01%) after whipsawing all week. Last week brought releases from a few US mega-cap companies. Tesla warned about production constraints through the rest of 2022, which sent its shares -10.37% lower on the week (+2.04% Friday), to their lowest levels since October. Meanwhile, Apple posted its biggest quarterly revenues ever, even with broader supply chain issues, leaving the stock +4.88% higher on the week (+6.98% Friday).
European stocks fared worse, perhaps due to their closer proximity to simmering geopolitical tensions. The STOXX 600 was -1.87% lower (-1.02% Friday), the DAX declined -1.83% (-1.32% Friday), while the CAC fell -1.45% (-0.82% Friday).
The geopolitical tensions out of eastern Europe also helped drive oil prices higher, as Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters. Crude ended the week +3.02% higher (+1.34% Friday), closing above $90/bbl for the first time since 2014, while WTI increased +2.53% this week (+0.79% Friday) to $87.29/bbl. Even more directly impacted, European natural gas futures gained +16.9% this week (-0.01% Friday).
Finally in data, the US employment cost index, which has been specifically flagged by Chair Powell, increased +1.0% versus expectations of +1.2% in the fourth quarter, while University of Michigan sentiment data declined to 67.2, slightly below expectations.
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 252.78 PTS OR 1.07% /The Nikkei closed UP 284.64 PTS OR 1.07% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.03% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed HOLIDAY /Oil DOWN TO 87362 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 88.98 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED XX AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT XXX. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3813: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN AND OFF SHORE TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR
3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA
///NORTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
end
3c CHINA
CHINA/COVID
China becoming more belligerent as they warn the USA over Ukraine. They also blast the USA for interference in the ongoings of the Beijing Olympics.
(zerohedge)
China Warns US Over Ukraine & Blasts “Interference” In Beijing Olympics
THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 09:20 PM
China on Thursday blasted the US for continuing to interfere in its affairs, further saying nothing has fundamentally changed, but instead charging there’s been “new shocks” since the Biden-Xi virtual summit of two months ago.
The scathing rebuke came on Thursday as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with his counterpart Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Importantly, Wang took the opportunity to for the first time side with Russia in the direct communication with the US top diplomat, saying Moscow has “reasonable security concerns” over Ukraine that must be “taken seriously”. Chinese state media and Beijing-linked pundits have also become increasingly vocal on the issue, charging NATO with overstepping…
He urged calm on the part of all sides but specifically called on the West to “abandon its Cold War mentality”. It’s been no secret that Washington sanctions and punitive actions against officials in both countries have served to make Russia and China unlikely allies against a common enemy.
“All parties should completely abandon the Cold War mentality and form a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism through negotiation,” Wang spelled out in the call with Blinken, according to AFP.
The tough rhetoric echoed the words of Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian during a Wednesday press briefing. In response to US claims that Russia is likely to invade Ukraine during the Beijing Winter Olympics, Zhao said, “As the world’s largest military alliance, NATO should abandon the outdated Cold War mentality and ideological bias, and do things that are conducive to upholding peace and stability.”
He suggested that NATO is outdated and contributes to instability: “China firmly opposes all kinds of small cliques,” he added, and urged “fully consider each other’s legitimate security concerns, avoid antagonism and confrontation, and properly address differences and disputes through equal consultation on the basis of mutual respect.”Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi: TASS
Wang focused much of his Thursday call with Blinken on the “urgent priority” that the “US should stop interfering in the Beijing Winter Olympics.” The swipe appeared not just aimed at Washington’s continued emphasis on China’s human rights abuses, including allegations of detention centers and “genocide” targeting Uighur Muslims, but in response to the words the day prior from Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.
Sherman had unexpectedly linked the Ukraine crisis with the Olympic games hosted by China:
“We all are aware that the Beijing Olympics begin on Feb. 4, the opening ceremony, and President Putin expects to be there. I think that, probably, [Chinese] President Xi Jinping would not be ecstatic if Putin chose that moment to invade Ukraine, so that may affect his timing and his thinking,” Sherman said in a virtual conference.
She said this even as Ukraine’s leaders have stressed that it doesn’t appear an invasion is “imminent” – as the White House has been asserting.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has essentially rejected the US assessment, stating at the start of the week when the US Embassy in Kiev began reducing staff: “In fact, there have been no radical changes in the security situation recently: the threat of new waves of Russian aggression has remained constant since 2014, and the accumulation of Russian troops near the state border began in April last year,” the ministry said.
Meanwhile, in the South China Sea…
Already there’s a US diplomatic boycott of the games, which means no US government official can attend, despite America being represented in the games through its athletes.
END
CHINA
China’s PMI’s shows that their economy is on the verge of contraction
(zerohedge)
China PMIs Show Economy On Verge Of Contraction Amid Continued Growth Slowdown
SUNDAY, JAN 30, 2022 – 03:25 PM
While China’s credit impulse recently bottomed and is already starting its next major upcycle, the remnant of the current slowdown are still hitting the economy and overnight the latest PMI data showed that China’s manufacturing sector expanded at a slower pace in January amid a seasonal slowdown, Covid-19 outbreaks and a housing market drop which dragged activity at small firms to the weakest since the depth of the pandemic.
In keeping with China’s penchant for always beating expectations, Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined to 50.1 from 50.3 in December, just above the median estimate of 50.0 which separates expansion from contraction. Likewise, the non-manufacturing PMI, which measures activity in the construction and services sectors, fell to 51.1, also just fractionally above the consensus forecast. Meanwhile, the non-government Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January from 50.9 in December, likely due to local outbreaks.

Some details from the NBS report:
- Among major manufacturing sub-indexes, the output index fell to 50.9 from 51.4, and the new orders sub-index decreased to 49.3 from 49.7.
- The new export order sub-index increased to 48.4 in January vs. 48.1 in December, and the import sub-index fell to 47.2 in January vs. 48.2.
- The manufacturing employment sub-index decreased to 48.9 in January from 49.1. The raw material inventories sub-index edged down to 49.1 from 49.2, and the finished goods inventories sub-index fell to 48.0 from 48.5 in December.
- The suppliers’ delivery times sub-index fell to 47.6 from 48.3, suggesting slower suppliers’ delivery likely due to local outbreaks and related restrictions.
- By enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises rose to 51.6 (vs. 51.3 in December), the highest in six months while the PMIs of small enterprises fell to 46.0 (vs. 46.5 in October), the lowest since February 2020 and taking a contracting streak to a ninth month.
Price indicators in the NBS manufacturing survey suggest inflationary pressures picked up in January with the input cost sub-index rebounding significantly to 56.4 (vs. 48.1 in December), and the output prices sub-index rose to 50.9 (vs. 45.5 in December), both are higher than November levels. NBS mentioned both input cost and output price sub-indexes of petroleum, coking and other fuels, and smelting and pressing of nonferrous metals were above 60.
The official non-manufacturing PMI – comprised of the services and construction sectors – also fell in January to 51.1 vs. 52.7 in December, driven by a decline in services sectors – the services PMI fell to 50.3 (vs. 52.0 in December), and the lowest since August. According to the survey, the PMIs of monetary and financial services were above 60 in January, while the PMIs of high-contact consumer services, including accommodation and transportation, were below 50 due to local outbreaks in January.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI was released later in the morning. The headline index fell to 49.1 in January from 50.9 in December: this was the lowest print since the Covid crash in March 2020.

Sub-indexes in the Caixin manufacturing PMI showed themes were mostly consistent with NBS PMIs except new export orders (stronger in NBS, weaker in Caixin):
- deceleration in output and new orders in January (48.4 and 48.5 vs. 52.7 and 50.9 in December),
- weaker employment (47.9 vs. 48.7 in December),
- falling inventories in both raw inputs and finished goods (49.8 and 48.7 vs. 50.3 and 50.1 in December),
- renewed inflationary pressures in input and output prices (both rose to 52.6 in January vs. 50.8 and 49.2 in December),
- slower suppliers’ delivery (47.5 vs. 48.7 in December), while new export orders sub-index in Caixin fell to 46.5 in January (vs. 49.9). Caixin survey mentioned the recent uptick of COVID cases home and abroad impacted sales and supply chains in January.

Despite the traditional fudging of PMI numbers especially on the NBS side, the numbers signaled a clear slowdown in the economy – with weaker output and new orders, weaker employment, falling inventories, slower supplier’s delivery, heightened inflationary pressures – although to be expected not just due to local outbreaks and related restrictions but because Chinese factories often see a production lull in January and February as workers head home for the Lunar New Year holidays. The divergence between NBS and Caixin in new export orders could be related to potentially geographic coverage differences and sector bias – NBS closely linked to raw materials, Caixin tilted towards machinery – between the two surveys. Activity has also been affected this year by the government’s orders for steel plants to trim output to reduce air pollution ahead of the Winter Olympics in Beijing which begin Friday.
“Industrial activities slowed due to weak domestic demand,” Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management Ltd., wrote in a note. “The slowdown is particularly severe for the small firms.”
The disruptions have added to the woes facing the Chinese economy, with home sales falling and consumption sluggish due to tightened restrictions to contain the spread of the highly-contagious omicron virus variant. Residents in places where there have been recent Covid-19 outbreaks, including Beijing, Shanghai and the northern port city of Tianjin, have been urged to not leave the cities unless necessary.
Manufacturers were also squeezed by higher costs, with input prices rising at the fastest rate in three months, according to the official data.
“That could drive the producer price index up and narrow the room for monetary policy,” said Bruce Pang of China Renaissance Securities Hong Kong, although in light of the recent commitment to easing policy, we doubt that even a solid bounce in the PPI will derail Beijing’s new-found monetary generosity.
To spur growth, the central bank has cut key interest rates, lowered reserve requirements for lenders and vowed to open its toolbox wider, in response to top leaders’ call for prioritizing stability. Still, a set of earliest available indicators tracked by Bloomberg sent mixed signals about the state of the economy in January, with the housing market and consumer spending staying weak and business confidence and stocks tumbling.
Elsewhere, construction activity continued to cool this month, with the NBS sub-index falling to 55.4, suggesting sentiment remained subdued given the property downturn and the limited effect that government spending on infrastructure is having so far. The approaching holiday and cold winter may have also had some impact on building.
“The weak PMI indicates the policy easing measures from the government have not yet been passed to the real economy,” according to Pinpoint’s Zhang. “We expect the government will step up policy supports in coming months, particularly through more fiscal spending.”
Translation: China’s all important credit impulse will soar, perhaps hitting its cycle high around the US midterm elections.

end
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Denmark is the first EU country to scrap all COVID restrictions
(21st centuryWire.com)
Denmark Is First EU Country To Scrap All COVID Restrictions
SUNDAY, JAN 30, 2022 – 09:20 AM
Later this week, England is scheduled to drop its problematic mask mandate for shops and public transport, along with its highly unpopular vaccine passport regime. Up north, Scotland says it will “relax” so-called ‘work from home guidance,’ and reopen nightclubs, as well as ending venue capacity limits.

While the UK and Ireland gingerly roll-back their highly disruptive COVID restriction policies, other European countries are now leading the way by scrapping the entire ‘pandemic’ regime altogether.
Financial Times reports…
Denmark said it would lift almost all Covid-19 restrictions and stop designating it a “societally critical” disease on Wednesday in the latest sign that western European countries are easing or even eradicating strict measures brought in to combat the Omicron coronavirus variant.
Magnus Heunicke, Denmark’s health minister, wrote to parliament on Wednesday saying that he would remove all Covid-19 restrictions on February 1, except for testing on arrival from abroad. Just as the Danish government did in September, when it lifted all restrictions, it will also stop calling Covid-19 a “societally critical disease”, meaning that it will no longer have the legal basis to introduce wide-ranging curbs.
“Tonight we can begin to lower our shoulders and find our smiles again,” said Mette Frederiksen, Danish prime minister, on Wednesday evening. “The pandemic is still here, but with what we know now, we can dare to believe we are through the critical phase.”
Denmark is the latest European country in recent days to announce it is dropping most or nearly all measures as it follows in the footsteps of the UK, Ireland and the Netherlands…
Meanwhile, mainstream media outlets like Politico report this latest development with the accompanied fear-mongering over the latest “subvariant” – allegedly on the loose:
The announcement comes as a new subvariant of Omicron, BA.2, is gaining a foothold in Denmark and driving infections up, with 46,000 new COVID-19 cases recorded on Wednesday.
“Recent weeks have seen very high infection rates, in fact the highest in the entire pandemic,” Frederiksen said. “Therefore, it may seem strange and paradoxical that we are now ready to let go of the restrictions.”
Some 82 percent of Denmark’s population is fully vaccinated with two doses, of whom 50 percent are boosted with a third dose, according to the Danish Health and Medicines Authority.
However, as the FT points out, with this alleged rise in “cases” (aka PCR positive tests) promoted in the media – there is no corresponding rise in serious illness as a result COVID-19:
Denmark still has one of the highest number of Covid-19 cases per capita in the world, currently more than 10 times its previous peak as Omicron causes tens of thousands of daily infections. But the number of patients in intensive care continues to fall and, even with Omicron, never hit the peaks reached from April 2020 and January 2021.
Elsewhere in Scandinavia, Sweden, Norway and Finland have all announced they will also be easing their restrictions in the coming weeks.
end
//AUSTRIA/COVID/
cryptogon.com » Austria to Lift Lockdown for Unvaccinated Residents
Inbox
| Robert Hryniak | 11:09 AM (1 minute ago) | ![]() ![]() | |
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What a change
https://www.cryptogon.com/?p=63196
end
END
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA/ EU/UK/NATO
So who is the fool?
Inbox
| Robert Hryniak | Sat, Jan 29, 7:51 PM (14 hours ago) | ![]() ![]() | |
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Zelensky has come out publicly saying Biden and others are trying to create a bogeyman where one does not exist, ( let’s see if the bunch does not try another color revolution). So now with the Russians returning to permanent bases some of which lie within a 500 kilometer distance from the Ukrainian border, is not the BIden bunch, the one who has lost all creditability? Certainly cookies Nuland and wee Blinken have shown themselves as totally ineffective being cast aside by China and lectured like disobedient children. The Biden bunch has lost all creditability on a global stage looking very foolish.
As i have written many a time, Russia has no need of the Ukraine or any other former Soviet era country who has Russophobia. In reality, they have nothing to offer and instead are drain on the EU coffers for aid against the bogeyman. However, should the Ukraine or some other ill intentioned nation decide to be gallant enough to perish they can host nuclear missiles and will feel the brunt of the delusional crowd sees as “snow niggers” ( sadly a term used for Russians). As for the Ukraine the mess they are in needs to be fixed by them and if they choose; yes, Russia will fix the mess but it will not occupy then and instead will leave a new government and a slaughtered NAZi cult to give rise to a more intelligent approach. This would a terrible event that would lead to more hardship in Europe than Europe needs or wants. Modern war is not the war of tank formations and slow moving troops concentration, but missiles and bombs of great accuracy that wipes out these ancient approaches. Moves by Germany and France and even Croatia suggest a new wind is blowing in Europe where they may cast off the ugliness of US meddling leading to consequences for Europe and America in the short term. The time and opportunity to rebuild for America is now which sadly will never occur with the current crowd.
Russia’ future is not in Europe or with America as it has other areas of growth and prosperity.
The real question is where the future will exist for the west and that can be divided as 2 blocks the US and Europe. Britain has won some kudos as being relevant in NATO and has showed a desire to see a battlefield and that makes them stronger on the continent and the EU block they left. And perhaps that will open some new trading opportunities in the future.
1/29/22
(translated from Russian)
Russian troops began to massively leave the border areas with Ukraine.
A few hours ago, high activity of the Russian military was noticed on the territory of military field camps near the Ukrainian border, however, as it turned out, this was due to the fact that Russian troops began to leave their places of temporary deployment. The data on this subject was confirmed by the press service of the Western Military District.
According to information provided by the press service of the Western Military District, at the moment, Russian units have begun to massively leave their deployment areas near the borders of Ukraine. This is due to the completion of the planned check of combat readiness.
The prolonged exercises, contrary to the statements of the West and Kiev, did not lead to any aggression from Russia. This only emphasizes the far-fetchedness of such accusations. Nevertheless, Russia has demonstrated the highest level of readiness to instantly transfer large forces to its western borders, which is especially important against the backdrop of aggressive behavior on the part of Ukraine, the United States and a number of NATO countries.
It is known that the Russian military successfully coped with the assigned combat missions, having worked out actions both in defense and in the offensive.
Source;
https://avia.pro/news/rossiya-nachala-otvod-voysk-ot-ukrainskoy-granicy
end
Did you know ???
| Robert Hryniak | Sun, Jan 30, 12:04 PM (20 hours ago) | ![]() ![]() | |
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Are you aware that 200 odd B61 nuclear bombs are in non nuclear countries surrounding Russia? Are you aware that Moscow sent a final communique to the OSCE asking “ do you intend to fulfill key security obligations? We all know what the crowd in DC has said, as well as NATO.
Assume that the Russians know exactly where these bombs are with pinpoint accuracy. There are reasons why more S400 missiles systems have been seen on and around Moscow streets in the last several days. Other more advanced systems are in place including the S550.
There are very specific reasons why Zelensky has parted with the narrative that the Biden bunch troll. Did your catch the firm NO from Hungary on hosting american assets? If you were Russian and no one cared to comfort you that they did not mean harm, what would you do? One thing you might do is destroy every single threat that exists in such countries eager to host such threats simultaneously. Think about that before traveling to such countries. It’s why no additional troops are not going to Ukraine, it’s not the threat by itself. Military it is of no consequence to Russia who could with a single soldier invading eliminate all military capability within a day.
If you are in such countries, it may be astute to rethink where you are located because this will not sit still for long.
Cheers
Robert
end
Heads up
Inbox
| Robert Hryniak | Sun, Jan 30, 8:03 PM (12 hours ago) | ![]() ![]() | |
to![]() |
Today being Sunday: Russia allowed an Iranian Jet carrying vast amounts of Arms, to land at the Russian Air Base in Khmeimim. Israel dare not strike for a response would be immediate.
Allowing Iran to use air bases in Syria is no different to Ukraine or Poland allowing NATO bases to be used next to Russia. And it is interesting that Russian Jets having been flying over the Golan Heights with Syrian ones preventing any Israeli response by participation.
This is a major shift, worth noting because it is being missed and clearly even in Israel there is concern growing that a near term strike may well come from Iran in several formats, on several fronts.
Russia may well move on cleaning up Syria of both the Turks and the Americans who are both stealing oil from Syria. Both the Syrians and Iranians may become the tip of the spear in a new outbreak of fighting where Russia has absolute air and naval dominance.
And one can be sure American forces will not be seen to support anyone.
As we head into February one should expect Russian market and currency games to be played out creating turmoil into March where matters may becomes more heated. And keep an eye on Germany who is seriously considering leaving NATO. The delusional rudderless Biden bunch may have lost both Europe and the Middle East all at once. Last Sunday, i wrote about this but did not think they could pull it off. Amazing what a week can bring. One does wonder what Britain in control of key offshore markets may do with this occurrence or even if they are aware of the changing terrain? Certain offshore accounts maybe in real risk. Taiwan comes into Chinese crosshairs in March after the games are finished.
Capital exiting Europe is headed into US bonds at the moment and not equities.
6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/
CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE
Slovenia…
Insane!
Slovenia: Drivers must present COVID certificate in order to refuel cars
NEWSAuthor:Hina15.09.2021 17:021 komentarShare:
Source: Pixabay/Ilustracija
There were no incidents in Slovenia on the first day of tighter epidemiological restrictions, with some dissatisfaction among unvaccinated citizens, mostly drivers who were unable to refuel their cars without a COVID-19 certificate.
Most petrol suppliers, including the Ljubljana-based Petrol, which operates the largest number of petrol stations in the country, are rigorously applying the new restrictions, adopted on Saturday, activating fuel dispensers only after a driver presents a certificate showing that they have recovered from COVID-19, have been vaccinated, or have tested negative.
Employees at petrol stations said that there were no delays on the first day of the new restrictions being in force, with only one incident having been reported in Brezice.
Drivers in international transport have been exempt from the new restrictions and can still refuel their vehicles without major restrictions but they do have to wear a face mask when paying for the fuel at the petrol station.
The rule on the compulsory COVID-19 certificate for a number of services and economic activities, applying both to providers of those services and their customers, was introduced due to a worsened epidemiological situation.
Janez Janza’s government is not ruling out the introduction of additional restrictions if the vaccination rate does not rise quickly and the number of new infections and hospitalisations continues to grow at the current rate.
Close to 2,800 new infections were reported in the last two days. In the past 24 hours, 1,364 new cases have been reported, with one in five tests being positive.
Six patients have died of COVID-19, and the number of patients receiving hospital treatment has increased to 347, including 75 in intensive care units. The government is expected to discuss new anti-epidemic rules on Thursday.
end
Funeral Director Update
| Milan Sabioncello | Sat, Jan 29, 11:50 PM (10 hours ago) | ![]() ![]() | |
to me![]() |
end
Worldwide Exclusive: Embalmers Find Veins & Arteries Filled with Never Before Seen Rubbery Clots
Inbox
| Robert Hryniak | 6:07 PM (11 minutes ago) | ![]() ![]() | |
to![]() |
end
Nobody Talking About Dead Pilots: Military Command, Media, Airline Execs Ignoring Air Terror
Inbox
| Robert Hryniak | 6:34 PM (0 minutes ago) | ![]() ![]() | |
to Harvey![]() |
end
Ivermectin works best against Omicron.
Inbox
| Mark Organ | Sun, Jan 30, 8:46 PM (11 hours ago) | ![]() ![]() | |
Omicron is very mild but occasionally can drive long covid which sucks. Much greater risk for vax than non vax. I don’t know any unvax who got sick but it seems like most of my vaxxed friends and clients have got it.
Anyway Ivermectin works. This is because it has the tightest binding to the ACE-2 receptor.
END
SPECIAL THANKS TO CHRIS POWELL FOR SENDING THIS TO US:
japanese drug company says ivermectin works against virus
Inbox
| Chris Powell | 10:48 AM (2 minutes ago) | ![]() ![]() | |
to me![]() |
Speech Therapist: 364% Surge in Baby and Toddler Referrals Thanks to Mask Wearing – Summit News
| Robert Hryniak | 4:34 PM (47 minutes ago) | ![]() ![]() | |
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Learning of the stupidity of mask wearing for children is only starting to be known.
What mental or social issues may arise will take a lot longer.
CANADA
Truckers move towards Ottawa, Ando now other nations join in with their convoys
(zerohedge)
Truckers Across Planet Unite In Convoys Against Medical Tyranny
FRIDAY, JAN 28, 2022 – 02:00 PM
The 50,000 strong truck drivers heading to Ottawa, Canada’s capital, expected to arrive as early as Saturday, may break a world record for the longest convoy. Called the “Freedom Convoy,” the truck drivers oppose the federal government’s vaccine mandates for cross-border activity and have inspired others worldwide.

Truck drivers from Canada to the US to Australia to Europe are banding together in protests worldwide against their respective governments’ overreach of public health, especially forced vaccine mandates.

Freedom convoys from America are expected to join tens of thousands of truckers in Ottowa on Saturday to get the government to repeal cross-border COVID vaccine passports.
A Facebook group in Australia called “2022 Official Convoy to Canberra” has more than 66k members and is preparing a convoy to arrive in the capital by Jan. 31 to protest vaccine mandates.

Multiple convoys across Europe are being organized at this very moment that will converge on Brussels at an unspecified date. A Telegram group with more than 14,500 members assembles convoys across the continent to meet in the capital.

Europe Convoy is for no vaxx passports, health freedom, no medical apartheid, and for a whole host of European officials to resign.
Are trucker convoys underway in Italy?
And Brazil?
It’s clear and straightforward, and as the famous podcaster Joe Rogan recently put it, “Canada is in Revolt.”
Even the richest man in the world, Elon Musk, chimed in yesterday and said he supports the Canadian truckers to his 71.8 million followers.
The tide could be turning as truckers are the beating heart of any economy, and a revolt among these groups of people can send economies of the world tumbling back into recession.

Maybe governments will wake up to the power truckers have as the movement spreads like wildfire across the globe could be what is needed to regain some medical freedom and at least put an end to forced vaccinations.
end
Trudeau in hiding
(zerohedge)
With Trudeau In Hiding, CBC Suggests Putin Behind Truckers’ Freedom Convoy
SATURDAY, JAN 29, 2022 – 03:04 PM
Update (1500ET): While in a normal world this would be beyond satire and ridicule, it is perhaps of no surprise whatsoever that the blame for instigation of the “Freedom Convoy” is already being placed on so-called ‘Russian actors’…
“…given Canada’s support of Ukraine… I don’t know it it’s far-fetched to ask but there is concern that Russian actors could be continuing to fuel things as this protest grows… perhaps even instigating it…”
As Brian Lilley writes at The Toronto Sun, “the media in this country is not acting as a neutral observer and conduit for news on this matter, most have decided the trucker convoy is the enemy and are treating it as such. Watch any of the news networks or, more importantly, read the Twitter accounts of supposedly objective journalists, or listen to the contempt in their voices as they ask questions to see that they have clearly taken sides.”
“Apparently, the journalists on Parliament Hill these days think their job is to hold the opposition and not the government to account. It also appears their job to support some protest movements and attack others based on the personal preferences of the journalists.”
The propaganda seems to have reached some, but not others…
In other news, while Trudeau hides in isolation, the Premier of Saskatchewan, a Canadian province that borders the US, calls for an end of the cross-border ban on unvaccinated truckers.
Ottawa city center is blocked…

* * *
The world’s largest truck convoy rolled into Canada’s capital, Ottawa, late Friday night and continues today to stage a protest against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cross-border vaccine mandates (or as some call it: medical tyranny).
The so-called “Freedom Convoy” – coming from all corners of Canada and even the US, has been traveling all week and is leading the charge in a massive demonstration against government overreach. Truckers from around the world are uniting and staging protests of their own.

As Enrico Trigoso reports at The Epoch Times, Brian Von D, the administrator at “Convoy to DC 2022” announced that they will “join forces” to ride from California to Washington, adding that “America is next.”
“As [the Canadian convoy] moved from the west to the east, [the American truckers] have been filtering into this convoy, and it is absolutely massive. It is known worldwide, it is the largest thus far,” he said in a live video on Facebook.
He added that dates and planned routes would be released soon on a website and various social media platforms, and a GoFundMe page would only be released on their CONVOY TO DC 2022 Facebook page.
“We’re done with the mandates, were done with the government telling us what to do, we will continue and we will follow just like the rest of the world on these trucker protests, and they will be 100 percent legal, they will abide by the law.”
The Parliamentary Protective Service expects as many as 10,000 protesters this weekend in Ottawa, but that figure could be significantly higher. A day ago, we noted 50,000 trucks in a 70km (43.5 miles) long convoy are headed to the capital.
According to the Guinness Book of World Records, the Freedom Convoy is “the largest parade of trucks” ever in the world.
“It’s 70 km (43.5 miles) long,” says Freedom Convoy 2022 spokesperson Benjamin Dichter to the Toronto Sun.
“I have seen footage from an airplane. It’s impressive.”
The trucker convoy has been arriving in the capital for the past 12 hours. Additional waves of the convoy will arrive later this afternoon.
Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau called the convoy a “small fringe minority” of those who “do not represent the views of Canadians.” Judging by the pictures and videos so far, Trudeau is a liar, and a revolt is underway in the country. Corporate media and government have spent the better part of the week downplaying the convoy ( because they are scared).
On Friday, Trudeau told the Canadian Press that he was worried about the protest turning violent. Organizers of the event have told truckers and anyone else participating in the demonstration to remain peaceful.
CBC said Trudeau and his family left downtown Ottawa on Saturday morning (due to close contact with someone infected with COVID – although he tested negative and triple-jabbed) as the trucker convoy descended on the area. The local news said he left town due to security concerns.
The convoy is expected to bring parts of the metro area to a standstill and block roads in front of parliament until lawmakers repeal a vaccine mandate for truckers hauling freight across the border. end
Despite Trudeau calling the protest “small,” Ottawa police chief Peter Sloly said they planned a “massive” demonstration on Friday.
END
‘Coward-19?’ Trudeau Tests Positive For COVID While Hiding Out From Canadian Truckers
MONDAY, JAN 31, 2022 – 10:33 AM
Canadian Prime Minister was accused of hypocrisy when he suddenly was nowhere to be found late last week as a convoy of truckers rolled into Ottawa to protest the government’s COVID mandates. Many scoffed at Trudeau’s sudden disappearing act when confronted by a massive crowd of protesters, many carrying signs mocking his comment that the truckers and their supporters were part of a “tiny fringe minority”.
Making matters worse for the PM, Canadian media reported Monday morning that Trudeau had been diagnosed with COVID, despite receiving a booster dose early this month on Jan. 4.
Is it possible to get infected with COVID while being boosted and in hiding? Or has Trudeau really been stricken with COWARD-19?

The truckers are protesting a new measure imposed by the Canadian government on Jan. 15 requiring unvaccinated cross-border truckers to quarantine upon returning home, making it virtually impossible for them to work. The convoy ended outside Parliament in Ottawa over the weekend, as thousands of protesters gathered.
Trudeau had reportedly decided to isolate due to one of his children testing positive for COVID. Now it appears he too has tested positive. Of maybe this is just another excuse for him to remain in hiding?
Former President Trump praised the Canadian truckers over the weekend, proclaiming that they were doing more to protect American freedoms than any lawmakers.
According to his own quarantine requirements, Trudeau now has an excuse to remain in hiding for up to 14 days.
end
Justin Trudeau flees for a secret location as up to 50,000 ‘Freedom Convoy’ truckers hit Ottawa | Daily Mail Online
Inbox
| Robert Hryniak | 11:41 AM (17 minutes ago) | ![]() ![]() | |
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The man is a coward and a disgrace as leader who tells Canadians what to do. Or at least that is what the international press is writing and saying. Leadership you should count on???
You decide!
end
Ron Paul: “We’re All Canadian Truckers Now!”
MONDAY, JAN 31, 2022 – 02:29 PM
Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,
We all remember where we were when the Berlin Wall came down. While it may have seemed that communist rule would go on forever, when the people decided that they had enough suddenly the wall fell. Just like that.
Thus it is after two years of Covid authoritarianism that in Canada the largest truck convoy in history has smashed through the Berlin Wall of tyranny. I have watched as the Canada I once respected as a haven for antiwar Americans in the 1960s turned into one of the most repressive countries on earth. I wondered how a freedom-loving people could allow themselves to be abused by these mini-Stalins without a peep.
But then Canada stood up and showed the rest of the world that freedom can triumph over tyranny if the people demand it. As I say, no army can stop an idea whose time has come.

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau had been basking in his ability to terrorize the population in the name of fighting a virus. He was so confident in his seemingly unlimited power that he felt he could ridicule any Canadian with different views. The prime minister said in a recent interview that unvaccinated Canadians were “extremists,” “misogynists,” and “racists.”
When the Canadian truckers stood up to his tyranny and began their historic convoy to Ottawa, he thought he could continue ridiculing people. The truckers and their supporters were just a “small fringe minority” who hold “unacceptable views,” he confidently claimed. For Trudeau, love of liberty is just an “unacceptable view.”
Less than a week later, as tens of thousands of trucks began entering the capital with millions of supporters behind them, the “brave” Canadian prime minister had fled the city and shuffled off to an undisclosed location.
As Elon Musk Tweeted, “It would appear that the so-called ‘fringe minority’ is actually the government.”
The Canadian mainstream media is obviously just as obedient to the regime as ours. They ignored the Freedom Convoy for as long as possible. There was almost no reporting. Then, when it became impossible to ignore, they began to attack and ridicule instead of trying to report it accurately. It was disgusting and almost comical to see a “reporter” from the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation suggest that the Canadian Freedom Convoy was cooked up by Putin and the Russians!
Thousands of trucks have arrived in Ottawa. They demand an end to covid tyranny. They are backed by millions of citizens, who braved the Canadian winter at night to cheer the truckers on.
This protest is so important because it’s not limited to Canada. The truckers are being supported worldwide, and a similar convoy is being planned from California to Washington, DC. In a US where grocery store shelves are increasingly bare, the truckers have more leverage than the powers-that-be would like to admit.
If I were prime minister of totalitarian Australia or New Zealand – or most anywhere in Europe – I would be getting pretty nervous right now. Just as the Covid tyranny descended across the globe in a seemingly coordinated fashion, now that the Berlin Wall of the tyrants has been breached, it’s just a matter of time before the shockwaves are felt far and wide.
We owe a debt of gratitude to the Canadian truck drivers. Let’s all do whatever we can to help the freedom movement continue to gather steam!
END
Very sensible: how COVID 19 can be stopped without massive vaccination
(Peter McCullough//Lee/EpochTimes)
COVID-19 Can Be Stopped Without Massive Vaccination: Dr. Peter McCullough
THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 09:40 PM
Authored by Harry Lee and Steve Lance via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
COVID-19 can be stopped without massive vaccination, renowned cardiologist and epidemiologist Dr. Peter McCullough told NTD’s “Capitol Report” program during the “Defeat the Mandates” march in Washington D.C., on Jan. 23.
According to McCullough, early treatment and natural immunity are safe and effective against COVID-19, but federal health agencies have ignored these in a push for vaccines, the broad use of which is not needed.
“The government has certainly been in an oblivion in terms of early treatment,” he said.
Thousands of people turned out to march in protest against COVID-19 vaccine mandates—one of the largest U.S. events against the mandates since the start of the pandemic.
“Our CDC, FDA, and NIH have had no effective messaging on early treatment, even the emergency use authorized monoclonal antibodies, which are safe and effective,” McCullough said. “And even on the new Merck and Pfizer drugs, which they’re basically absent in terms of the media, despite being recently distributed across the United States.”
Early effective treatment of any disease can help avert progression to more serious illness, with an additional benefit of reducing the burden on health care systems, and in a seperate interview, McCullough claimed that 95% of the COVID deaths could have been prevented by early treatment…
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stated on its website that according to the COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines published by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), “current clinical management of COVID-19 consists of infection prevention and control measures and supportive care, including supplemental oxygen and mechanical ventilatory support when indicated.”
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved one drug, remdesivir (Veklury), to treat COVID-19 in hospitalized patients, the CDC continued.
On Monday, the FDA announced that it is restricting the use of two monoclonal antibody treatments for COVID-19, saying data show such treatments are “highly unlikely” to be active against the Omicron variant.A crowd gathers at Lincoln Memorial for the “Defeat the Mandates” rally in Washington on Jan. 23, 2022. (Lynn Lin/NTD)
McCullough said that highly qualified doctors have done the research and have shown that “early treatment can end this pandemic by reducing the intensity and severity of disease and reducing the chances of hospitalization and death in our highest risk seniors.”
“This basically means that the vaccines broadly used aren’t needed. And in fact, we have seen far too many vaccine injuries and now vaccine failures. With the Omicron variant, there’s effectively no coverage of these vaccines against the newest form of the virus,” McCullough said, adding 22 studies showed vaccines ran out of efficacy after six months.
McCullough gave the example of how ivermectin, a Nobel prize-winning, FDA-approved drug that many studies and doctors claim is effective in treating COVID-19 patients, was dismissed by federal health agencies.Dr. Peter McCullough in an interview with NTD’s Capitol Reports program during “Defeat The Mandate” rally in Washington D.C., on Jan. 23, 2022. (Screenshot via The Epoch Times)
The FDA has been saying the drug was approved to treat internal and external parasites, and currently no data shows its effectiveness against COVID-19.
McCullough also claimed that the federal health agencies have ignored natural immunity, which is “robust, complete, and durable in terms of the lethal strains of the virus.”
“It was only until it got to the Omicron variant, which there was a breakthrough, and individuals who are previously immune could get a mild Omicron syndrome. But natural immunity is the end of the pandemic,” McCullough continued. “Remember, as we all become naturally immune, COVID-19 is no longer a threat to our lives.
“And the failure of our governmental agencies to recognize natural immunity has basically created unnecessary suffering, unnecessary testing, unnecessary masking and social distancing. Unnecessary compliance with all kinds of measures that are designed for the susceptible. Those who are naturally immune are no longer susceptible to fatal disease.”
McCullough expressed doubt about the claim that COVID-19 vaccines could reduce hospitalization and deaths.
“All we have at this point of time is bias-confounded, and I think invalid hospitalization data. The U.S. agencies still make the claim that the vaccines protect against hospitalization, whereas we see no evidence of that in the UK, Germany, South Africa, and the rest of the world,” McCullough said. “And I can tell you, the United States is not that different than the rest of these countries. Something is wrong. And I can tell you something is wrong with an incorrect, invalid claim that the vaccines reduce hospitalization. I don’t think it’s supportable.”
On Jan. 19, the CDC published a study showing that people who had not gotten a vaccine but did have a prior infection, also known as natural immunity, were less likely to land in a hospital than the vaccinated without natural immunity.
The Epoch Times has contacted CDC for additional comment.
Last month, President Joe Biden announced new measures to battle COVID-19, the top three of which are boosters for all adults, vaccinations to protect kids, and expanding free at-home testing. Biden did talk about the new treatment, saying that “if and when any new COVID-19 treatment pills have been found to meet FDA’s scientific standards, they are equitably accessible to all Americans.”
Zachary Stieber contributed to this report.
END
How did they get this so wrong!
Beauregrad/BlueState
“The Virus Stops With Every Vaccinated Person” – Eight Quotes From The ‘Experts’ That Aged Horribly
SATURDAY, JAN 29, 2022 – 02:30 PM
Authored by Parker Beauregrad via TheBlueStateConservative.com,
I began an article yesterday with the line: If coordinated lies could stop the spread of respiratory viruses, Covid would have ended in March of 2020. It applies just as much to this article. The following quotes come from Tony Fauci, Joe Biden, Rochelle Walensky, Bill Gates, Albert Bourla, and others who promised – promised! – us that the vaccines were going to end this alleged pandemic.
From the beginning, all talk of preventative care, repurposed drugs, alternative treatments were not only ignored but disparaged. Several states threatened to pull the licenses of doctors and pharmacists who either prescribed or filled prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin. Even now, a doctor in Maine has had her license suspended and made to undergo a psychiatric evaluation for dispensing these beneficial treatments. (Seriously, even if they did nothing, how is that worse than injecting yourself with a brand-new, lab-made cocktail of goodness knows what?). It isn’t just medications; something as cheap and simple as supplementing with vitamin D or going outside in the sun were actively suppressed. Southern California, home to some of the most beautiful landscapes and endless supply of Pacific sunshine, shut down beaches and parks upon threat of arrest.
From the beginning, only vaccines would get us out. They told us that. They promised us that. We would have to die unnecessarily at home since hospitals didn’t treat anything and sent us home until we were too sick and every potential medication was blackballed, but it would all be worth it. If only we hunkered down until a vaccine could be developed, then there would be an eventual light at the end of the self-imposed tunnel. Amazingly, right after Donald Trump was defeated, pharmaceutical companies announced their foregone results to the world: The vaccines were here and life could get back to normal.

Don’t take my word for it; take theirs:
- Joe Biden: “You’re Not Going To Get COVID If You Have These Vaccinations.”
- Tony Fauci: “You Become A Dead End To The Virus.”
- Rochelle Walensky: “Vaccinated People Do Not Carry The Virus — They Don’t Get Sick.”
- Alberta Bourla: “[O]ur COVID-19 vaccine was 100% effective in preventing #COVID19 cases in South Africa. 100%!”
- Bill Gates: “A key goal [of the vaccination program] is to stop transmission.”
- Rachel Maddow: “Now we know that the virus stops with every vaccinated person.”
- Francis Collins: “‘[R]eason to be pretty optimistic’ that the available COVID-19 vaccines will be effective against the new Omicron variant of the virus; All of the other variants that have emerged during this COVID-19 pandemic have shown response to the vaccine, including Delta
- Brian Stelter: “The newspaper [USA Today] describes ‘America’s fourth Covid-19 surge,’ noting this ‘didn’t have to happen,’ since vaccinations are so widely available. The headlines are followed by a call to action: ‘Let’s end it now.’”
9, Honorable Mention, any of your obnoxious friends or family members: “You’re an anti-vaxxer. The vaccines are safe. They work. I’m doing my part. I’m better than you. You’re unsafe to be around. Just do your part. You’re selfish. Trust the science. Do you know more science than Fauci? Trump wahhhhhhhh!”
So that didn’t age well.
And before anyone says the science changed, just ask yourself: Do you really believe that? This entire vaccine debacle is the result of intentional lies and propaganda.
If the medical and political entities had been honest from the beginning about supplements, preventative lifestyle changes related to diet and exercise, alternative treatments, and, indeed, optimism over a new delivery system for the purpose of inoculation, then so be it. If they had treated us like adults – free citizens, not subjugated peasants – then it seems unlikely we’d be at this crossroad. Instead, they have lied with gusto and mandated we take the vaccine upon threat of lost livelihoods. It is criminal what they have been and are still doing. end
And they lied this whole time.
end
Very important read.
(Ly/EpochTimes)
“Think Twice Before You Vaccinate Your Kids”, Dr. Robert Malone Warns Parents On COVID-19 Shots
SUNDAY, JAN 30, 2022 – 11:30 PM
Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly and Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times,
Dr. Robert Malone, a virologist and immunologist who has contributed significantly to the technology of mRNA vaccines, issued a strong caution for those who seek to have their children vaccinated against COVID-19.
“Think twice before you vaccinate your kids. Because if something bad happens, you can’t go back and say, ‘whoops, I want a do-over,’” Malone told EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders” program in an interview, Part 1 of which premiered on Sunday.
He also said, “It is clear that parents should think twice about vaccinating their child,” adding that serious adverse events can occur and can be “so severe that it puts your child in the hospital.”

Malone noted that with regard to myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart, “there’s a good chance that if your child takes the vaccine, they won’t be damaged, they won’t show clinical symptoms—[but] they may have subclinical damage.”
“But the question is, do you want to take that chance with your child? Because if you draw the short straw and your child was damaged, most of these things, if not all of them, are irreversible. There is no way to fix it,” he said.
“And I get these emails all the time: ‘Doctor, doctor, what can we do? This has happened.’ And that once it’s happened, there’s … you can’t go back you can’t put Humpty Dumpty back together again.”
He pointed to information compiled on his website, which includes a list of peer-reviewed studies related to COVID-19 vaccine adverse events in children, the main one being myocarditis. The website also includes a collection of adverse events reports as well as death reports in the pediatric community, submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).
“They’re there as links to the VAERS database, and if you click on them, you can see the actual VAERS report that was filed by a physician saying this is what happened,” Malone said.
“And you can make your own decision about whether or not you think that that’s vaccine-related. So all of those data are there.”

A 5-year-old girl looks at her arm after getting a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in New York City on Nov. 8, 2021. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
One page on Malone’s website points to a paper published in the Toxicology Reports journal in which authors noted, using data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), that normalized data on COVID-19 deaths per capita are “negligible in children,” while deaths after COVID-19 vaccination are “small, but not negligible, in children.”
“For children the chances of death from COVID-19 are negligible, but the chances of serious damage over their lifetime from the toxic inoculations are not negligible,” the authors wrote in the paper, titled “Why are we vaccinating children against COVID-19?”
Malone’s latest warning comes after he issued a prepared statement in mid-December 2021 aimed at parents, in which he said that with regard to mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines, “a viral gene will be injected into your children’s cells” that “forces your child’s body to make toxic spike proteins.”
“These proteins often cause permanent damage in children’s critical organs, including their brain and nervous system, their heart and blood vessels, including blood clots, their reproductive system, and this vaccine can trigger fundamental changes to their immune system.”
Malone is strongly opposed to COVID-19 vaccine mandates for children. He is the chief science officer and regulatory officer for The Unity Project, a movement seeking to resist COVID-19 vaccine mandates for K–12 children.
“The Unity Project’s position is one based on the logic of informed consent versus forced vaccination—that mandates should not happen,” Malone told EpochTV. “The state should not be forcing itself into the family. The decisions belong at the level of parents not at the level of the state or the school board. School boards and schools and teachers have no right to understand and seek out medical information about their students‚ that’s illegal. And yet, it’s being done all the time. And students are being bullied if they haven’t taken vaccine.”
Malone is also the president of the International Alliance of Physicians and Medical Scientists—a group of 16,000 professionals who have signed a declaration that says healthy children “shall not be subject to forced vaccination.”
“Mandates are illegal based on the Nuremberg Code, Helsinki Accord, the Belmont Report,” Malone said.
“These continued to be unlicensed products, they’re only available through emergency use authorization … These are not licensed products, and they’re being forced on your children, and they have risks. And the media—through its censorship—and Big Tech, is blocking your ability to even learn what those risks are so you can make an informed decision for your children yourself. That is a huge crime in my mind.”

Municipal workers hold placards and shout slogans as they march across Brooklyn Bridge during a protest against the COVID-19 vaccine mandate, in New York on Oct. 25, 2021. (Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images)
Two mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines are currently available in the United States under emergency use authorization (EUA)—one from Pfizer-BioNTech and the other from Moderna.
The only COVID-19 vaccine that has been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for people 16 and older is Pfizer and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine, which is marketed as Comirnaty. Doses are to be produced in the future, according to FDA documents.
A separate, existing supply of COVID-19 vaccines under Pfizer-BioNTech continue to be available under an updated EUA for those over 16. The FDA has also granted an EUA for Pfizer-BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine for those aged 12–15 in May 2021, and for children aged 5–11 in October 2021.
California in October 2021 became the first state to mandate COVID-19 vaccines for children, followed by Louisiana in December 2021. Both states said they will only enforce the mandate if the FDA fully authorizes the vaccines for children.
The Pfizer vaccine remains the only jab against COVID-19 available for people aged under 18 in the United States. The FDA in October 2021 delayed a decision on whether to grant Moderna an EUA for its COVID-19 vaccine for those aged 12 to 17, saying it needs more time to further review the vaccine’s risk for myocarditis in this population.
The Epoch Times has reached out to Pfizer-BioNTech and the FDA for comment.
end
VACCINE IMPACT
Vaccine Impact
BREAKING: TRUCKERS AND CANADIANS OCCUPY OTTAWA AS TRUDEAU HIDES
January 29, 2022 11:52 am

A truck convey in Canada reported to be over 50,000 trucks has arrived in Ottawa today. There are several live feeds filming the events today, and this is one on Rumble that rotates many live feeds, including truckers in other parts of the world that are also participating. People on the ground in Ottawa are saying that they are there for the long haul, and claim to have supplies that will last months until their demands are met. One person who is allegedly NOT in Ottawa is Justin Trudeau, who earlier in the week called the trucker convey a “fringe group.”Read More.endThe higher the vaccinated, the higher the cases as citizens are losing their natural immunity(Rickards)
Rickards Slams Big Pharma’s Siege Of America
Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,
Remember this time last year when the vax bandwagon really got rolling? The vax had been announced in November 2020 and was fast-tracked through the approval process (on an experimental basis at the time).
But it took a while to get to doses shipped and distributed and for people to become aware of where they could get it. That played out over December 2020, but by January 2021, the effort was in full swing.
The first thing those getting jabbed learned was they would have to return in a few weeks for the “second dose.” That was understood and widely accepted, although the Janssen vaccine is different and only requires one shot. Janssen is not nearly as available as the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna.
The bandwagon continued through 2021 to the point that about 70% of the U.S. population is now fully vaccinated.
So Much for the “Pandemic of the Unvaccinated”
But by September 2021, doubts arose about the efficacy of the vaccines. They never did stop infections and don’t stop the spread of the virus, but the public was led to believe otherwise. As the Delta variant raged in August and September, followed by the Omicron variant in November, the entire vax story started to fall apart.
The elites who have blamed earlier outbreaks on the “unvaxxed” and those who are fully vaxxed themselves began to get COVID by the millions. They belatedly realized that this was not a pandemic of the unvaxxed but was a pandemic where everyone is vulnerable.
As I’ve said all along, the virus goes where it wants.
Big Pharma Doubles Down
Still, Moderna and Pfizer came forward with a “booster” shot, which is really just another dose of the same vaccine as a solution. Tens of millions lined up for their boosters in the fall of 2021, only to get the Omicron variant of COVID when it ran out of control in December.
So the booster didn’t work either. In fact, there was some evidence that the vaxxed and boosted are more vulnerable to Omicron than the unvaxxed because we have “taught” the virus to evade the vaccines by giving people so many injections.
There’s also some evidence suggesting that repeated vaccination weakens the immune system overall, making people more vulnerable to other diseases. Since these vaccines are experimental, it’ll take years to fully understand their effects.
But rather than admit failure or at least offer a note of caution, Big Pharma is at it again.

Big Pharma Triples Down
The CEO of Moderna says a fourth dose of his vaccine will be needed by this fall. He doesn’t call it a fourth dose; he calls it a second “booster.” But it’s the same thing.
What this really means is that the effects of the vaccine wear off after three–six months and you’ll have to get “boosters” the rest of your life and take your chances with serious side effects, including heart failure and even death.
I can understand why the drug companies favor that. I don’t understand why everyday Americans would. Maybe we should all look to Israel…
96.2% Vaccinated Israel Swamped With COVID
When it comes to vaxxing the entire population, no country is more aggressive than Israel. They acquired large quantities of imported vaccines and recently began an effort to manufacture their own vaccines in order not to rely on imports.
Beginning in December 2020, Israel vaccinated 14% of their population in a mere three weeks. Today, the rate of fully vaccinated Israelis is 96.2%, the highest in the world. Israel was also aggressive when it came to boosters and is already working on plans for a fourth shot (or second booster).
But this vax campaign has not really helped Israel. They had huge outbreaks last summer and another wave from Delta and are now swamped with new cases from the Omicron variant.
All of this is consistent with the best research that shows the vaccines do not prevent infection and do not stop the spread of the disease. However, they do reduce severe cases and fatalities, at least until they lose their potency after a period of months.
Scientists Want Government to Admit Vaccine Failure
Now serious scientists and clinicians in Israel are calling upon the government to admit that the vaccines don’t work as expected and to work on other ways to control the virus, including effective treatments instead of ineffective vaccines.
The letter is addressed to the Israeli government, but it’s equally accurate as applied to vaccine mandates anywhere in the world, including the U.S.
As I stated earlier, it looks like we’re at the point where the vaccines may be doing more harm than good by, in effect, training the virus to mutate in ways that defeat the vaccines.
The irony of this is that the unvaccinated may have better natural immunity than the vaccinated against Omicron since the virus has mutated in order specifically to defeat the spike proteins produced by the vaccines.
Mounting Evidence of Serious Side Effects
More evidence is emerging about the side effects of the vaccines, including heart failure among otherwise healthy men under 40 and reproductive damage to women of childbearing age.
In addition, the number of young, otherwise healthy professional athletes who have died or suffered serious cardiac events is alarming. The number of incidents greatly exceeds what can be expected by chance, based on previous years’ data.
It’s unlikely the Israeli government will admit to any of these failures; they have taken an all-or-nothing approach to the vaccines, much like U.S. public health authorities like Dr. Fauci.
Unfortunately, this means the vax mandates and endless boosters will continue for now.
Still, the rest of the world is wresting with the same issues. Lockdowns, quarantines and mandatory vaccines are not free. They destroy economies. Let’s hope the vaccine madness ends before the economy is run into the ground.
Reason for Hope
And today, there’s new reason for hope.
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has just announced that England will be lifting requirements for COVID passes, ending mask mandates and canceling work-from-home requirements.
“As COVID becomes endemic, we will need to replace legal requirements with advice and guidance, urging people with the virus to be careful and considerate of others,” Johnson said.
In other words, the virus is here to stay and we’re just going to have to learn to deal with it, like we deal with annual flu outbreaks.
We should protect the most vulnerable (the elderly and those with serious comorbidities), but the rest of society needs to function as normally as possible.
Were you listening, President Biden?
Vaccine Impact
GENOCIDE! Military Medical Whistleblowers Reveal Miscarriages, Birth Defects, and Infertility Rates Exploded in 2021 Following COVID VaccinesJanuary 30, 2022 2:07 pm The evidence that COVID-19 shots are making an entire generation infertile while killing unborn children still in the womb continues to pour in. Last week, Senator Ron Johnson hosted a conference in Washington D.C. called “Second Opinion” which featured many of the same speakers from his previous event held in D.C. back in November of 2021. One of the speakers at this 5-hour recorded event last Monday was attorney Thomas Renz, who in the short time allotted to him, testified that three military medical professionals had become whistle blowers, putting their careers on the line, to expose data contained in the Department of Defense Medical Database, under oath and under penalty of perjury, regarding the explosion of miscarriages which increased by almost 300% in 2021, an almost 300% increase in cancer, and over a 1000% increase in neurological injuries, which have a direct impact over the pilots flying in the military. Renz stated: “Our soldiers are being experimented on, injured, and sometimes possibly killed (by the COVID-19 vaccines.)” After this very brief testimony in Senator Johnson’s 5-hour presentation, Renz did a couple of interviews in the Right Wing alternative media where he expanded on what he testified to at Senator Johnson’s conference in D.C., and in an interview on OAN he stated: “Along with the 300% increase in miscarriages, we also have a 150% increase in birth defects. Men, if you want things not to work for you, we saw the average at 2100 for male infertility jump to 7551. That’s a 350% increase. Female infertility increased by 471%.” And here is the most damning part of this information that Renz is reporting from the whistle blowers sharing data from the DoD medical database: these percentage increases are measured over the average of the past 5 year’s data, which included year 2020, the year COVID started, which means all of these increases started in year 2021, when the vaccines were rolled out. GENOCIDE! The word “genocide” comes from the Greek word genos, from which we get words like “generation,” and the Latin suffix -caedo, which means the “act of killing.” So am I exaggerating or using hyperbole when I describe these COVID-19 vaccines as causing “genocide” by making an entire generation of people in their child-bearing ages infertile? And remember, these statistics that Renz is reporting are from the military, who are among the healthiest and most fit members of our society!Read More…Occupy Ottawa Day 2: “We’re Just Getting Started”January 30, 2022 5:07 pm The Trucker Freedom Convoy to Ottawa Canada entered its second day today, with no signs that things were slowing down. As I have periodically checked in to live streaming throughout the day, I have heard people on the ground in Ottawa state things like: “They think we’re all going home now, but we’re just getting started!” There was a stage setup in downtown Ottawa this morning where local pastors and others took turns addressing the crowds. The protests have been remarkably peaceful, so far, given the size of the crowds which even the corporate media admits is in the “thousands” but is probably in the tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands. Some people on the ground are estimating up to 2 million. And yet, the corporate media continues to characterize the protesters as “radicals” and “domestic terrorists” even suggesting that “Russian actors” are probably fueling the protests. Justin Trudeau and his family have allegedly been removed from their home due to “security concerns.” In some positive news, Scott Moe, the Premier of Saskatchewan, a Canadian province that borders the US, called for an end to vaccine mandates for the truckers. If this drags on into the week, the Canadian government is sure to take action. But just what that action will be, and whether or not members of the military and RCMP will obey their tyrannical leaders if they ask them to turn on their fellow citizens, is yet to be seen.Read More… |
Michael Every
on the major topics of the day
Michael Every…
Rabobank: 50-50-50
MONDAY, JAN 31, 2022 – 09:40 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
50-50-50
This week, which will be quiet in Asia due to the Lunar New Year ahead, starts like the last: lots of key reasons to be worrying. Indeed, despite the backdrop of US equities trying to deny all of them on Friday, it also starts with the Asian markets that are open largely in the red.
The situation vis-à-vis Ukraine is no better. This is despite confused messaging from Kyiv over whether an attack on it is “imminent” –translated as “inevitable” in Ukrainian– or not. One can see Kyiv’s point that the West saying so while doing nothing to help is not good for local business confidence, and that this kind of Russian destabilisation is something they just have to live with.
Parts of the West insist downplaying said risks does not stop them occurring: the UK is sending even more men and military equipment to the relevant borders and talking about targeting oligarchs in London, rebuilding bridges with parts of the EU despairing of a lack of leadership from Germany; the US is closer to agreeing on “the mother of all sanctions” against Russia; and France is sending troops to Romania. Yet other parts of the West are still not acting despite warnings that *EU* countries could be seeing Russian attempts at Finlandization in the near future.
Expect more shuttle diplomacy this week, but don’t expect a magical resolution despite the Council on Foreign Relations releasing a proposed off-ramp of Putin and the West retreating and everybody kicking the can down the road and reforming European security institutions, even as the US still wants to leave and the EU can’t and won’t step up. That is the kind of ‘hockey-stick’, not baseball bat, forecast one expects from central banks, not battle-hardened think-tank pen-pushers: it speaks to the bleed-through of neoliberal utopianism from one field to another.
So, if we can’t agree a Russian attack is “imminent” or “inevitable”, can we at least try to assign it a probability? Just 10% this week? 30% by the weekend as more forces arrive? And, as Russian state media allege Kyiv is planning an attack on Russian-held east Ukraine during the Olympics, over a 50% risk of war after the games end?
Meanwhile, the Fed’s Bostic is suggesting the Fed could go 50bp in March. No longer is this threat just in the realms of Wall St tin-foil hat conspiracy. Could the Fed really unleash such an attack on undefended markets? Given its favorite measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditure deflator, soared to 4.9% y/y in December, the highest in 38 years, there is an argument that it may. However, there is more than a 50% probability that they are just threatening this in the hope that they don’t have to: the market is currently pricing just a 1 in 4 risk of a 50bp March hike.
The Fed’s problem is that it mirrors much of what we see from the West over Ukraine: only belated understanding that underlying structures have changed from a presumed neoliberal paradigm; and the subsequent threat of acting aggressively but nobody believing it “because markets” – which then points to risks of having to do far more fighting further down the line as a result. Relatedly, I would wager if there *is* more than a 50% probability of Russia moving on Ukraine by the end of February then there is *far* less than a 50% chance of the Fed doing their own 50 in March.
I am not going to refer to Chinese diplomatic comments playing up the risk of war with the US over Taiwan: there is a far lower near-term probability of that happening, even if it supports our Ukraine metacrisis narrative. (As do Houthi attacks on the UAE, and North Korean missile launches –with US offers of talks without preconditions– and Australia joining the EU’s WTO case against China.) Yet Chinese PMI data were depressingly close to 50, with manufacturing 50.1, services 51.1, and Caixin manufacturing 49.1. “More stimulus!” cry the analysts who don’t notice no previous stimulus has had any discernible effect because the problems are structural not cyclical. Maybe Lunar New Year will give them time to reflect: but I doubt it.
One of the only things keeping the US dollar relatively tied down at the moment is that China’s CNY is taking a ‘none shall pass’ stance to monetary policy divergence, which is anchoring a lot of Asian EM FX. Is there more or less than a 50% of that holding long term though? The risks to EUR from Ukraine should also be clear.
The other thing is that so far US 10-year yields are not rising much despite Fed jawboning and dot-plotting, and that matters more for many FX crosses than the short end of the yield curve. If the US wants to shoot itself in the foot with monetary policy, as the flattening curve screams, then it is hardly US dollar positive. That said, there is more than a 50% chance that a US recession would end up making global waves, which suggests a different sub-phase of our metacrisis.
Lastly, Italy finally has a president, after 8 rounds of voting, but it has ended up where it started – with the same octogenarian as a symbol of national stability and progress. Oh for a leader of just 50, not just in Italy but in many other places!
7. OIL ISSUES
Natural Gas soars as 45 million Americans faced a huge winter storm over the weekend
(zerohedge)
Meteorologists Warn Of “High Impact Snow And Ice Event” Around Groundhog Day
SUNDAY, JAN 30, 2022 – 10:00 PM
While millions of people along the North East recover from the “bomb cyclone” that dumped feet of snow in several coastal cities, there’s a new storm that readers should be monitoring that could unleash disruptive weather ranging from snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms next week.
Meteorologists at private weather forecaster BAMWX are warning about a potential “high impact snow and ice event” that may occur around Groundhog Day on Wednesday across the central Rockies to the Eastern Seaboard.
Kirk Hinz, the meteorologist with BAMWX, outlined the highest threat areas for winter weather, including parts of Northeast Oklahoma; St. Louis, Missouri; Indianapolis, Indiana; Detroit, Michigan, and Northern Maine.


Hinz said the impending storm would have “cold air in place,” and there will be heavy bands of snow for specific areas that could receive north of one foot of snow. He said the timing and exact snow amounts on a metro by metro basis are still unknown.
The potential storm is projected to occur around the anniversary of the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011, a powerful and historic winter storm that affected large swaths of the US and Canada. The Chicago metro area was buried in 21 inches of snow and had blizzard conditions for days.
Here are some of the latest snowfall totals from this weekend’s bomb cyclone. https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1487830063433371650&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fweather%2Fmeteorologists-warn-high-impact-snow-and-ice-event-around-groundhog-day&sessionId=39201923668aaff4abc1377c96ea219aca7f697a&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=75b3351%3A1642573356397&width=550px
Forecasts are not locked in and will most likely change in the next 24 hours. There could be widespread flight cancellations and delays if the winter storm materializes — continuing the chaos from this weekend.
8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES
Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS
AUSTRALIA
END
* * *
Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM
Euro/USA 1.1160 UP .0029 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL MIXED
USA/ YEN 115.45 UP 0.332 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…
GBP/USA 1.3419 UP 0.0045
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED LUNAR HOLIDAY
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 252.18 PTS OR 1.07%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .03% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 252.18 OR 1.07%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED HOLIDAY
Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.03%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 284.64 PTS OR 1.07%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1791.50
silver:$22.58-
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 97.17 DOWN 10 CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.
THIS ENDS MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.66% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.176% UP 0 AND 7/10 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.73%// UP 3 in basis points yield from yesterday.
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.30 UP 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 57 points higher than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.013% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//
THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.32% AND NOW ABOVE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1210 UP .0079 or 79 basis points
USA/Japan: 115.28 UP 0.161 OR YEN DOWN 16 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.3432 UP 57 BASIS POINTS
Canadian dollar UP 46 pts to 1.2704
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED )..XX
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3763
TURKISH LIRA: 13.44 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.176
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 1.791% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.112 UP 4 in basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 96.81 DOWN 46 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 81.83 PTS OR 1.08%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 112.58 points or 0.73%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 6.32PTS OR 0.09%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 23,50PTS OR 0.27%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 172.24 PTS OR 0.65%
WTI Oil price 87.18 12: EST
Brent Oil: 88.83 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE RISS: 77.45 THE CROSS LOWER BY 75 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 75 BASIS PTS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.013
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.1243 UP .0111 OR 111 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.3453 UP .0079 or 79 basis pts
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 115.06 DOWN .002
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2706 DOWN .0043 (cdn dollar UP 43 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 88.16
Brent: 89.42
USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.793 UP 2 points
USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.112 UP 4 pts
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 7.35 PTS OR 0.02%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 169.65 OR 1.20%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 31.04 DOWN .92 PTS
GLD/NYSE CLOSING PRICE $167.65 down $2142 OR 1.26%
SLV/NYSE CLOSING PRICE: $21.01// down $.71 OR 3.27%
end)
USA trading day in Graph Form
Panic-Bid Rescues Nasdaq (Barely) From Worst January Ever As Rate-Hike Odds Soar
MONDAY, JAN 31, 2022 – 04:00 PM
Tl;dr… January was this…
‘Bubble’ Markets continued to blow up in January (with the now ubiquitous month-end rebalance bounce of hope)…

Source: Bloomberg
This came as US financial conditions tightened significantly (ex-March 2020, this is as big a tightening as in Q4 2018 just before Powell folded). Bear in mind just how much ‘easier’ financial conditions are still than the ‘easiest’ they have been for the last decade…

Source: Bloomberg
But, most notably, Global financial conditions are now tighter than they were pre-COVID-Lockdowns…

Source: Bloomberg
January saw a ‘balanced’ bond-stock portfolio suffer the worst monthly performance since March 2020, and before that Feb 2009…

Source: Bloomberg
Thanks to today’s rebalance/meltup (especially into the close), Nasdaq narrowly avoided its worst January ever, instead suffering its worst January since 2008, S&P and Russell 2000 had their worst January since 2009. Small Caps were the laggard in January, down around 10%, Nasdaq next down around 9%, Trannies closed the month down just over 7%, S&P down 5% and The Dow down over 3%…

Nasdaq Comp’s worst Jan ever was in 2008 (-9.89%), which implied a close today of 14089… look how hard the machines worked to keep Nasdaq above that level…

Interestingly, The Dow has now had 3 straight years of a negative return in January.
For context, including the rally of the last couple of days into month-end, Small Caps close January down 17.5% from ATHs, Nasdaq down 12.5%, S&P down over 6% and The Dow down over 5%…All of these are the biggest drawdowns since the COVID crash in 2020…

Source: Bloomberg
The Energy sector was the only to close the month in the green with Consumer Discretionary and Tech the laggards…

Source: Bloomberg
Value stocks dramatically outperformed Growth stocks as rates rose and long-duration stocks got hammered

Source: Bloomberg
This was Growth stocks 2nd worst month since Sept 2008 and Value stocks biggest monthly gain since March 2001.
Fed’s Bostic walked back his weekend attention-getter by claiming that he doesn’t really see 3 rate hikes in March and odds slipped back to unchanged from Friday…

Source: Bloomberg
January overall has seen a dramatically hawkish surge in rate-hike expectations, and, so far, Fed Speakers have done little to push back against that…

Source: Bloomberg
And this has happened as US macro data has serially disappointed in January (with both ‘hard’ real data and ‘soft’ survey data tumbling on the month)…

Source: Bloomberg
This was the worst month for US Treasuries since Nov 2016 (post-Trump-election growth/inflation expectations) with the short-end exploding over 40bps higher in yield and the long-end up around 20bps…

Source: Bloomberg
2Y Yields are at their highest since Feb 2020, 5Y and 10Y at their highest since Jan 2020, and 30Y at its highest since June 2021…

Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve is flatter for the 4th straight month to its flattest since March 2020…

Source: Bloomberg
And the forward curve is implying a recession within a year… (2s30s 1Y Fwd inverted)…

Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied to 18 month highs in January (but faded back fast today after tagging December high stops)…

Source: Bloomberg
A very ugly month for cryptos with Ethereum down 27% and Bitcoin down 17%…

Source: Bloomberg
Commodities were broadly lower in January, except for crude which surged on geopolitical concerns…

Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices soared in January with WTI’s best month since Nov 2020, closing at its highest since Sept 2014

NatGas soared in January, above October highs, but it was a wild ride…

Gold closed down on the month (worst month since Sept 2021), hovering around $1800…

Finally, we note that January saw a very notable regime shift in options markets with call volumes dropping significantly (leveraged dip-buyers absent) and out volumes soaring (leveraged sellers or hedgers?)…

Source: Bloomberg
Did retail raiders get routed in January and leave the battlefield?
Given where real yields and HY bonds are trading, bonds have a lot further to go yet…

Source: Bloomberg
Get back to work Mr.Powell.
end
I) MORNING/AFTERNOON TRADING/
II) USA DATA
IIb) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATE STORIES
Now T Mobile will fire all unvaccinated corporate staff by April unless they vaccine. I guess they do not read.
(zerohedge)
T-Mobile To Fire All Unvaccinated Corporate Staff By April
SUNDAY, JAN 30, 2022 – 11:00 AM
President Biden’s vaccine mandates have been successfully challenged in the courts, but that isn’t stopping some companies from cracking down on “anti-vax” employees, even deciding that they will move ahead with plans to fire those who don’t accept the vaccine.
T-Mobile on Saturday became the latest major American company (it’s the country’s third-largest wireless carrier) when Bloomberg published details from a memo sent to the company’s staff.

The policy will apply to all employees who require “regular or occasional” access to T-Mobile’s offices, which the company says means practically all of its staff. Those who don’t comply will have their badge privileges revoked, and will automatically lose access to all T-Mobile facilities.
“Affected employees who do not become fully vaccinated and obtain a Magenta Pass by April 2 will be separated from T-Mobile,” said Deeanne King, T-Mobile’s chief human resources officer, in the memo, referring to the internal digital pass that requires the proof of vaccination.
[…]
“T-Mobile’s badge-controlled offices continue to be accessible only to those who are vaccinated against Covid-19 and we have shared with employees that we are requiring office workers to be fully vaccinated by April 2,” it said, with limited exceptions for certain roles, locations and legally mandated accommodations and exemptions.
Exceptions will of course be made for staff with approved medical and/or religious excuses, the company said.
There will be some other important exceptions. For example, to prevent any impact on customer service, workers in the company’s stores – who do most of the interacting with members of the public on the company’s behalf – will face different requirements.
According to Bloomberg, the memo said that vaccine rules and decision to terminate unvaccinated employees wouldn’t apply to field technicians and most in-store retail roles, but the company is encouraging the shots and regular testing for those workers.
So far, T-Mobile is one of the largest US companies to commit to fire unvaccinated workers. Most other companies have moved on now that the Supreme Court has blocked Biden’s attempt to enforce vaccinations via OSHA.
END
iiiA) important USA economic stories for you tonight
iii)B USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//
For your interest…
US Consumers Will Push Back On High Food Prices, Mondelez CEO Says
SATURDAY, JAN 29, 2022 – 02:00 PM
America’s top snack company, Mondelez International, told Bloomberg TV Friday that consumers will begin to push back on rising food prices as the economy reopens.
Dirk Van de Put, chief executive officer of snack company Mondelez, said consumers had tolerated price increases made by the company, but that could soon change as their more stationary lifestyles revert to more active ones.

Snacks sold by Mondelez have been subjected to price increases in the last two years as snarled supply chains, rising commodity prices, and soaring labor costs forced the company to increase prices. Also, pandemic demand created shortages for some snacks, driving prices even higher.
Consumers are now out of the house and heading to bars, restaurants, malls, and other shopping areas. Van de Put explained:
“I assume as the consumer will change and we get out of the pandemic and they start to spend more on other items, and they start to eat out more and so on, that that’s where the moment comes that they might not be so benign as it relates to the price elasticity,” Van de Put said.
In other words, Mondelez has spotted a significant challenge: food inflation could cause some consumers to stop purchasing their snacks as they eat at restaurants and bars.
Mondelez reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings that missed Wall Street’s estimates, sending shares down 3% to $65.50 around 1300 ET. The pandemic rise in share prices was due to the stationary lifestyles of consumers as public health officials ordered lockdowns and corporations forced employees to work from home. There were also restrictions on eateries that limited indoor capacity.
Robert Finkel, managing director of equity trading at Stifel Financial Corp who specializes in the consumer sector, expects the upcoming Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) Conference next month “will have a common theme as management teams of America’s top food companies will try to strike a delicate balance between keeping up with inflation, not destroying margins and not turning off their consumers.”
During CAGNY, which runs between Feb. 22-25, Finkel said management teams would be talking about inflation, margins, and pricing.
And Mondelez is not the only food producer running into a possible demand wall due to soaring prices and consumer shifts. Kraft-Heinz (in which Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owns a big stake) is set to raise prices in March on dozens of its most popular products. The hikes will affect brands including Oscar Mayer cold cuts, hot dogs, sausages, bacon, Velveeta cheese, Maxwell House coffee, TGIF frozen chicken wings, Kool-Aid and Capri Sun.
The question now is how much of these price hikes can consumers afford?
According to the most recent CPI data release, headline consumer prices surged 7% in December, which was the strongest level in nearly 40 years. Food prices alone rose 0.5% MoM.

And don’t fall for the bullshit that wages are rising and that’s a good thing. Real wages have shrunk for 9 straight months…

The result of all of this is that smaller supermarkets with less pricing power will get crushed, such as the Krogers of the world who’ve been slapped with two downgrades. They’re facing a double edge sword to either passing along costs that would decline foot traffic or face margin compression. The Walmarts of the world have more playing room.
END
Michael Snyder warns of food shortages will be far worse than we are being told
(Michael Snyder)
Farming Insider Warns The Coming Food Shortages Are Going To Be Far Worse Than We’re Being Told
MONDAY, JAN 31, 2022 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,
The information that I am about to share with you is extremely alarming, but I have always endeavored to never sugarcoat things for my readers. Right now, there are shortages of certain items in grocery stores across the United States, and food supplies have gotten very tight all over the globe. I have repeatedly warned that this is just the beginning, but I didn’t realize how dire things have already gotten until I received an email from a farming insider that I have corresponded with over the years. I asked him if I could publicly share some of the information that he was sharing with me, and he said that would be okay as long as I kept his name out of it.

According to this farming insider, dramatically increased costs for fertilizer will make it impossible for many farmers to profitably plant corn this year. The following is an excerpt from an email that he recently sent me…
“Things for 2022 are interesting (and scary). Input costs for things like fertilizer, liquid nitrogen and seeds are like triple and quadruple the old prices. It will not be profitable to plant this year. Let me repeat, the economics will NOT work. Our plan, is to drop about 700 acres of corn off and convert to soybeans (they use less fertilizer, and we also have chicken manure from that operation). Guess what? We are not the only ones with those plans. Already there is a shortage of soybean seeds, so we will see how that will work out. The way I see it, there will be a major grain shortage later in the year, especially with corn. I mean, we are small with that. What about these people in the midwest who have like 10,000 acres of corn? This will not be good.”
Once I received that message, I wrote him back with some questions that I had.
In response, he expanded on his comments in a subsequent email…
As for the farming, I see it getting bad. Things like fertilizer and liquid nitrogen have tripled and quadrupled in price. Yes commodity prices are up, but that certainly wont cover the new increased input costs. We are in NC, so while certainly not like the midwest, we still grow grain. The midwest of course will have these same higher input costs as well.
Corn for example, typically takes about 600 pounds of fertilizer per acre, plus 50 gallons of liquid nitrogen. Times that by many acres and thats a lot of money. Soybeans take much less. The plan for us, and most others around here, is to drastically cut corn acres and switch to soybeans. Problem is, there is apparently a soybean seed shortage because others have this plan as well. We were lucky enough to pre buy enough to do it. However, most people, especially younger farmers, or farmers where that is all they do, probably don’t have the money to front like that.
The way I see it, a corn shortage will come. I guess there could possibly be a glut of soybeans, but remember that could depend on the seed being available. I guess there are other alternatives, maybe milo, oats, or barley. Of course the corn market is much larger. Think animal feed and ethanol. I mean for animals, soybeans are used too, but its a mix. What happens to the animal producers who depend on reasonably priced corn? I just don’t see how it can end well. I mean, even if we end up with plenty of soybeans, even a glut, then you have a busted market for that. I don’t know. There just isnt much history to base any of this on. I just see it hurting both grain farmers, and animal farmers, and also translating to more shortages and price increases for consumers who buy the end products.
I was stunned when I first read that.
Corn is one of the foundational pillars of our food supply.
If you go to the grocery store and start reading through the ingredients of various products, you will quickly discover that corn is in just about everything in one form or another.
So what is our country going to look like if a severe corn shortage actually happens?
I don’t even want to think about that.
Of course fertilizer prices are not just going through the roof here in the United States.
In South America, high fertilizer prices are going to dramatically affect coffee production…
Christina Ribeiro do Valle, who comes from a long line of coffee growers in Brazil, is this year paying three times what she paid last year for the fertilizer she needs. Coupled with a recent drought that hit her crop hard, it means Ms. do Valle, 75, will produce a fraction of her Ribeiro do Valle brand of coffee, some of which is exported.
There is also a shortage of fertilizer. “This year, you pay, then put your name on a waiting list, and the supplier delivers it when he has it,” she said.
If you love to drink coffee in the morning, you will soon be paying much more for that privilege.
Over in Africa, fertilizer prices could result in “30 million metric tons less food produced”…
Fertilizer demand in sub-Saharan Africa could fall 30% in 2022, according to the International Fertilizer Development Center, a global nonprofit organization. That would translate to 30 million metric tons less food produced, which the center says is equivalent to the food needs of 100 million people.
“Lower fertilizer use will inevitably weigh on food production and quality, affecting food availability, rural incomes and the livelihoods of the poor,” said Josef Schmidhuber, deputy director of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s trade and markets division.
Where in the world are we going to get enough food to replace “the food needs of 100 million people”?
This is beyond serious.
Basically, the stage is being set for the sort of historic global crisis that I have been relentlessly warning about.
Many Americans had assumed that even if the rest of the world was suffering that we would be immune.
But now there are widespread shortages all over the nation, and the Wall Street Journal just published a major article entitled “U.S. Food Supply Is Under Pressure, From Plants To Store Shelves”.
This is really happening.
In Washington D.C., residents are being instructed to “just buy what you need and leave some for others”…
“If you’re hitting the grocery store to prepare for winter weather, please just buy what you need and leave some for others! You may have noticed empty shelves in some stores due to national supply chain issues, but there is no need to buy more than you normally would.”
What would have been unimaginable just a few years ago is now making headlines on a daily basis.
Of course it isn’t just our food supply that is under threat. As Victor Davis Hansen has aptly noted, our country is now in the process of undergoing a “systems collapse”…
In modern times, as in ancient Rome, several nations have suffered a “systems collapse.” The term describes the sudden inability of once-prosperous populations to continue with what had ensured the good life as they knew it.
Abruptly, the population cannot buy, or even find, once plentiful necessities. They feel their streets are unsafe. Laws go unenforced or are enforced inequitably. Every day things stop working. The government turns from reliable to capricious if not hostile.
A lot of people are going to be caught off guard by the pace of change.
Things are shifting so rapidly that it really is hard to keep up with it all unless you are paying very close attention.
Now that you have been exposed to the information in this article, please don’t go back to sleep.
This is not a drill.
We really are heading into a nightmare scenario, and I strongly urge you to act accordingly.
end
iv)swamp stories
END
KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES
Let us close with this interview of Gerald Celente and Paul Craig Roberts with Greg Hunter
Harvey Covid War Ending – Gerald Celente
Inbox
| Greg Hunter via aweber.com | Jan 29, 2022, 9:04 PM (13 hours ago) | ![]() ![]() | |
to Harvey![]() |
Covid War Ending – Gerald Celente | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
Covid War Ending – Gerald Celente
By Greg Hunter On January 29, 2022 In Political Analysis 4 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)
Renowned trends researcher and publisher of “The Trends Journal,” Gerald Celente, boldly predicted back in April 2021, “We are going to start seeing a big anti-vax movement.” He was spot on. Now, Celente has another bold prediction: “The Covid War is coming to an end.” Celente explains, “On the virus, my forecast is the Covid war is going to end. Wind down, I should say significantly, by the end of March to mid-April. The new fear they are going to be selling after that is climate change.”
The wind down of Covid is really financial necessity. Celente says, “It’s killing businesses. New York City is a dead town. One after another you look at the places going out of business, and they are getting push back now. They can’t go on with this anymore. . . . They are killing the hospitality business, the restaurant business, they are all going down. They can’t go on like this, and they need the tax money. Politicians never work a day in their lives, so they need the money coming in.”
On the economic front, Celente predicted months ago that the Fed would be forced to raise rates. Now, the official inflation rate is 7%. The Fed is going to raise rates to fight inflation. Celente says, “Here is our forecast. This is a Paul Volker 2.0. You go back to 1982 and inflation was skyrocketing. They dramatically raised interest rates to stop it. (The Fed Funds Rate hit 20% under Volker’s plan.) So, they stopped inflation. They also dragged down the economy. . . . The markets are going to go down. . . . I don’t see a crash, at this point, in real estate.”
Celente also says oil could keep rising and inflation too. Celente says, “They are going to have to keep raising interest rates more and more to fight inflation, and if that keeps going, that’s when it will collapse. If inflation keeps going up and they have to raise rates much beyond the 2% mark, it’s over.”
Celente also gives his take on what is going on in Ukraine, and it’s not flattering to the Biden Administration. Celente talks about many other top trends as well.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with the top trends researcher on the planet, Gerald Celente Publisher if The Trends Journal. (1.29.22) (There is much more in the 57 min. interview.)
Covid War Ending – Gerald Celente | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
“This Is Just Madness!” Paul Craig Roberts Warns “America Is Very Unstable”
Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com ,
International award-winning journalist and former Assistant Treasury Secretary Dr. Paul Craig Roberts (PCR) says data shows between CV19 policies and the policies surrounding Russia that “America is very unstable.”

Let’s start with the NATO talks with Russia over Ukraine that broke down in a diplomatic disaster last week. There is the real possibility of nuclear war with Russia. Dr. PCR explains, “The West is continually antagonizing Russia (PCR is referring primarily to Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan)…”
” This will eventually lead to some kind of conflict. If it is a conventional war, the West does not have a chance—no chance whatsoever. So, what would Washington do when it’s faced with a massive defeat? It would save face by resorting to nukes. That’s the way Washington is. So, it’s very dangerous. It’s extremely dangerous to make the Russians feel threatened, and when they tell you (Washington D.C) that, you ignore it. You don’t hear, and you make them feel more threatened. . . . This is just madness, and it opens up the prospects of military confrontation. I guarantee you that the Russians are not going to allow NATO to take in Ukraine and Georgia. They simply will not, and it cannot be done. . . . We are not prepared for military confrontation with Russia and much less with Russia and China.” Last week, the Russian government publicly said it thought the Biden Administration was having a “nervous breakdown,” which was intended as a huge insult.
The other huge problem is the CV19 policies with shutdowns and coerced experimental injections. Dr. PCR says, “The whole Covid thing is a hoax…”
” It’s all been for nothing, and it’s unnecessary, but they are sticking with it. They are sticking with it despite the fact that it is now conclusively proven that what the vaccine does is turn your own immune system into a weapon against your own body. The vaccine causes your immune system to attack your own vital organs. That’s why you have these vaccine injuries and deaths, and it does not protect you from Covid. . . . Yet, they still want to continue it. It’s another form of insanity.”
The biggest driver of a troubled economy and spiking inflation is none other than the Covid policies. Dr. PCR points out, “The inflation is really reflecting the lockdowns and cessation of supply…”
“All of a sudden you have got shortages everywhere. How do people get things? You bid for it. You have to outbid . . . You can see the whole Covid policy is shrinking the ability of the economy to produce. That’s the problem.”
Dr. PCR sees a “collapse of society” because the data is showing many will get sick or die because of the dangerous injections.
Dr. PCR also says countries are turning away from the U.S. dollar and buying gold. That is very dollar negative, and it is not going to tame inflation–just the opposite.
What does Dr. PCR see in the political future for the Democrats and the Biden Administration? Dr. PCR says, “The Democrats have blown it, but if they can get away with blaming the unvaccinated for all the problems . . . they may be shielded...”
“Democrats may also be shielded if they can force Russia to take some sort of decisive action. Then everybody has to rally around the President…
…It’s very, very unstable, and there are reasons to leave the dollar if inflation is high.”
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with award-winning journalist Dr. Paul Craig Roberts 1.19.22 (There is much more in the 46 min. interview.)
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Well that is all for today, I will see you tomorrow night



The evidence that COVID-19 shots are making an entire generation infertile while killing unborn children still in the womb continues to pour in. Last week, Senator Ron Johnson hosted a conference in Washington D.C. called “Second Opinion” which featured many of the same speakers from his previous event held in D.C. back in November of 2021. One of the speakers at this 5-hour recorded event last Monday was attorney Thomas Renz, who in the short time allotted to him, testified that three military medical professionals had become whistle blowers, putting their careers on the line, to expose data contained in the Department of Defense Medical Database, under oath and under penalty of perjury, regarding the explosion of miscarriages which increased by almost 300% in 2021, an almost 300% increase in cancer, and over a 1000% increase in neurological injuries, which have a direct impact over the pilots flying in the military. Renz stated: “Our soldiers are being experimented on, injured, and sometimes possibly killed (by the COVID-19 vaccines.)” After this very brief testimony in Senator Johnson’s 5-hour presentation, Renz did a couple of interviews in the Right Wing alternative media where he expanded on what he testified to at Senator Johnson’s conference in D.C., and in an interview on OAN he stated: “Along with the 300% increase in miscarriages, we also have a 150% increase in birth defects. Men, if you want things not to work for you, we saw the average at 2100 for male infertility jump to 7551. That’s a 350% increase. Female infertility increased by 471%.” And here is the most damning part of this information that Renz is reporting from the whistle blowers sharing data from the DoD medical database: these percentage increases are measured over the average of the past 5 year’s data, which included year 2020, the year COVID started, which means all of these increases started in year 2021, when the vaccines were rolled out. GENOCIDE! The word “genocide” comes from the Greek word genos, from which we get words like “generation,” and the Latin suffix -caedo, which means the “act of killing.” So am I exaggerating or using hyperbole when I describe these COVID-19 vaccines as causing “genocide” by making an entire generation of people in their child-bearing ages infertile? And remember, these statistics that Renz is reporting are from the military, who are among the healthiest and most fit members of our society!
The Trucker Freedom Convoy to Ottawa Canada entered its second day today, with no signs that things were slowing down. As I have periodically checked in to live streaming throughout the day, I have heard people on the ground in Ottawa state things like: “They think we’re all going home now, but we’re just getting started!” There was a stage setup in downtown Ottawa this morning where local pastors and others took turns addressing the crowds. The protests have been remarkably peaceful, so far, given the size of the crowds which even the corporate media admits is in the “thousands” but is probably in the tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands. Some people on the ground are estimating up to 2 million. And yet, the corporate media continues to characterize the protesters as “radicals” and “domestic terrorists” even suggesting that “Russian actors” are probably fueling the protests. Justin Trudeau and his family have allegedly been removed from their home due to “security concerns.” In some positive news, Scott Moe, the Premier of Saskatchewan, a Canadian province that borders the US, called for an end to vaccine mandates for the truckers. If this drags on into the week, the Canadian government is sure to take action. But just what that action will be, and whether or not members of the military and RCMP will obey their tyrannical leaders if they ask them to turn on their fellow citizens, is yet to be seen.

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