FEB 11

FEB11

· by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment ·Edit

GOLD; UP $4.50 to $1840.70

SILVER: $23.34 DOWN 18 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1858.70

SILVER: $23.57

Bitcoin: morning price: 43,629 UP 102

Bitcoin: afternoon price: 42,450 DOWN 1077

Platinum price: closing DOWN $2.8 to $1038.20

Palladium price; closing UP $39.75 at $2328.15

END

end

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comex notices//JPMorgan notices filedcomex notices//JPMorgan notices filed 5/10

EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,836.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/10/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 02/14/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

624 H BOFA SECURITIES 5
661 C JP MORGAN 3
661 H JP MORGAN 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 10

TOTAL: 10 10
MONTH TO DATE: 17,443

COMEX//NOTICES:EXCHANGE: COMEX FILED:EXCHANGE: COMEX

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEB. CONTRACT: 10 NOTICE(S) FOR 1000 OZ (0.03110 TONNES)

total notices so far: 17,443 contracts for 1,744,300 oz (54.255 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

29 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 145,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 1278 : for 6,390,000 oz

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $4.50

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGES AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

CLOSING INVENTORY :1019.44 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS:/:

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY SLV/ TONIGHT: 544.573 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS 5,993 CONTRACTS TO 156,516 AND RESTS CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND DESPITE THIS HUGE GAIN IN OI, IT WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH OUR SMALL $0.19 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.19) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 6934 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES .

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 910,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 7.445 MILLION OZ. V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN.

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS -297

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 9 days, total contracts: : 4719 contracts or 23.595 million oz OR 2.621 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (524 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 4719 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 23.595 MILLION OZ

LAST 10 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 23.595 MILLION OZ//

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAR.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 5993 DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.19 GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 674 CONTRACTS( 674 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 4.1 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 190,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 6.535, MILLION OZ// .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF6667 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 33.34 MILLION OZ//

WE HAD 29 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 145,000 OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 9881 TO 530,908 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: — 401 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

THE VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.00//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED 12,314 CONTRACTS…

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB AT 64.3 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING: 58.479 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.00 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 12,571 OI CONTRACTS (38.93 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2636 CONTRACTS:

FOR APRIL 2636 ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL:2636

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 530,507.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,571, WITH 9881 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2636 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,571 CONTRACTS OR 38.83TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2636) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (9881,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 12,918 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 64.30 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 500 OZ//NEW STANDING 58.479 TONNES// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ,4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :

15,555 CONTRACTS OR 1,555,500 oz OR 48.38 TONNES 9TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1728 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 48.38 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 48.38/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.35% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 145.12 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 48.38 TONNES//INITIAL

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 5993 CONTRACTS TO 156,516 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 4 1/2 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 674 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 674 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 175 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 5993 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 674 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 6667 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 33.34 MILLION OZ,

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.19 GAIN IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.96 PTS OR 0.66% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 17.69 PTS OR 0.07% /The Nikkei closed //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.06% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3570 /Oil UP TO 91.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 92.55 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3570. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3588: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER/

A)NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 9881 CONTRACTS AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN OF $1.00 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2236 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2636 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , & FEB. 0 APRIL: 2636 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2636 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED 12,981 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2636 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 10,282 CONTRACTS..

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (58.479),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

FEB 2022: 58.479 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $1.00)AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE REGISTERED A GAIN OF 38.93 TONNES OF TOTAL OI, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (58.479 TONNES)…

WE HAD –401 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12,571 CONTRACTS OR 1,257,100 OZ OR 38.93 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 207,676 /// fair

Confirmed volume yesterday: 250,188 contracts fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB ’22 COMEX GOLD //FEB 11

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	32,385.681 oz jpm
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil
No of oz served (contracts) today	10 notice(s) 1000 OZ. 0.03110 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	1358 contracts 135,800 oz 4.224 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	17,443 notices 1,744,300 OZ 54.255 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

For today:

No dealer deposit 0

No dealer withdrawal 0

0 customer deposit

total deposit: nil oz

1 customer withdrawal

I) Out of JPMorgan: 32,395.681 oz

total withdrawals: 32,395.681 oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 2//DEALER TO CUSTOMER/

OUT OF JPM 4,302.130 oz

OUT OF MANFRA 675.171 oz ( 21 kilobars)

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 1368 stand for LOSING 609 contracts.

We had 614 contracts served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 5 contracts or an additional 500 oz will stand on this side of the pond looking for gold metal.

The month of March saw a loss of 95 contracts and thus the OI standing is 4216.

April saw a GAIN of 5718 contracts up to 400,844.

June saw a gain of 3678 contracts up to 67,845 contracts

We had 10 notice(s) filed today for 1000 oz FOR THE FEB 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 10 contract(s) of which 3 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2021. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (17,443) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEB: 1368 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 10 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,881,100 OZ OR 58.479 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of FEB.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:

No of notices filed so far (17,443) x 100 oz+ (1368) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (10} x 100 oz} which equals 1,878,300 oz standing OR 58.479 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEB.

We gained 5 contracts or an additional 300 oz will stand for gold over here

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 58.479 TONNES (HUGE FOR A FEBRUARY DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

157,392.690, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 4.89 TONNES

125,410.592 PLEDGED MANFRA 2.90 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690

288,481,604, oz JPM No 2 8.97 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware: 0..3810 tonne

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold: 1,553,863.297 oz 48.331 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 32,673,099.352 OZ (1016.27 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,431,830.492 OZ (479.99 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,241,268.860 OZ (536.64 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,687,432.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 487.95 tonnes

END

FEBRUARY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//FEB 11

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	99,921.240 oz CNT
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	7018.932 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)	29CONTRACT(S) 145,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	211 contracts (1,055,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1278 contracts 6,390,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Delaware: 7018.932

total deposit: nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 184.325 million oz/352.154 million =52.34% of comex

ii) Comex withdrawals: 2

a)Out of CNT 99,921.240 oz

total withdrawal 99,921.240 oz

we had 1 adjustments

i) Out of Manfr: 5075.500 oz dealer to customer

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 84.148 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 352.154 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF FEB//2022 OI: 240 CONTRACTS gaining 182 contracts on the day. We had 0 contracts served upon yesterday.

So we gained 182 contracts or an additional 910,000 oz will stand for silver on this side of the pond.

FOR MARCH WE HAD A LOSS OF 4127 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 72,057 CONTRACTS.

APRIL HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 5 CONTRACTS UP TO 83

MAY HAD A GAIN OF 9162 CONTRACTS UP TO 65,793 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 29 for 145,000 oz

Comex volumes: 89,490// est. volume today//strong

Comex volume: confirmed YESTERDAY: 103,460 contracts (very strong)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1278 x 5,000 oz =. 6,390,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB (240) and the number of notices served upon today 29 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2021 contract month: 1278 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB (240) – number of notices served upon today (29) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates 7,445,000 oz. .

We gained 182 CONTRACTS OR 910,000 ADDITIONAL oz of silver will stand at the comex.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

GLD

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.60 TONNES//

FEB 4/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.59 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.95//A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.78 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.04 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $10.10//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.15//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.10 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $10.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $10.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN UNBELIEVABLE DEPOSIT OF 27.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.86 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.86 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $29.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.44 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.65//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $19.25/A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.08 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1019.44 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV/FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.143 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.218 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.430 MILLION OZ/

FEB 4/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILION OZ

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT539.212 MILLION OZ//

FEB 2/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.411 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS : NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 27/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.311 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ/

.JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.8 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 532.692 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.792 MILLION OZ

JAN 20/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.998 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.792 MILLION OZ

JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 71 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.942 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 525.804 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF 1.11 MILLION OZ AND 1.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.246 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ/.

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY

RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James RICKARD

end

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Powell broke his own board’s trading rules: twice!

(Pam and Russ Martens/Wall Street onParade)

Pam and Russ Martens: Fed Chair Jerome Powell twice broke his board’s own trading rules

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-02-10 21:30Section: Daily Dispatches

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Thursday, February 10, 2022

An anonymous activist group called Occupy the Fed reported in a Substack article on Sunday that Fed Chair Jerome Powell traded on the final day of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 29, 2015, when he was a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, and on the final day of an FOMC meeting on December 11, 2019, when he was chairman of the Fed.

Powell’s trading directly violates the Fed’s written policy, which prohibits trading “during the period that begins at the start of the second Saturday (midnight) Eastern Time before the beginning of each FOMC meeting and ends at midnight Eastern Time on the last day of the meeting.”

The FOMC meetings are typically when the most sensitive and market-moving information becomes available at the Fed, including votes on hiking or lowering interest rates and other confidential actions.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, and Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida have resigned over their own individual trading scandals and not one of them has been charged with anything as directly in violation of Fed policy as trading on the very day the FOMC is in session.

We fact-checked the Occupy the Fed report by downloading the dates of all FOMC meetings from 2015 through 2020 and comparing them to the trading transactions listed on Powell’s financial disclosure forms filed with the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) for years 2015 through 2020. We can verify that Powell traded on April 29, 2015, and on December 11, 2019. Both were the final day of the FOMC meeting. …

… For the remainder of the report:

Activist Group Reports that Fed Chair Powell Traded During FOMC Restricted Periods: We Fact-Checked It and It’s True

END

4.OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/AVOCADO

Avocado prices have been this high.

(zerohedge)

Guac Shock: Avocado Prices Have Never Been This High For A Super Bowl

THURSDAY, FEB 10, 2022 – 10:40 PM

Countdown to Super Bowl 56 is four days away (as of Thursday morning). The annual playoff championship game of the National Football League (NFL) will feature the Los Angeles Rams versus Cincinnati Bengals. There are estimates that 117 million viewers will watch the game, increasing 21% compared to the 2021 Super Bowl. It’s a US tradition that many households host Super Bowl parties, an excuse to drink beer and eat game-day finger foods with friends, family, and even co-workers.

For the millions of Americans hosting SuperBowl parties, they’re likely to pay some of the highest food costs on record as global food prices surge to near-record highs. We want to concentrate on everyone’s favorite game-day finger foods besides chicken wings, that is, guacamole and chips.

According to Bloomberg data, the price of a 20-pound box of avocados from the state of Michoacan, Mexico (the central hub of Mexican avocado production) is around $26.89, the highest ever for this time of year with data going back to 1998.

This year alone, avocado prices are up 31%.

There are many reasons for rising avocado prices, including widespread supply-chain bottlenecks, increased freight costs, labor shortages, and higher commodity costs to operate farms, among many other variables.

One sure thing is higher food costs for SuperBowl parties will impact the pocketbooks of Americans. On Thursday morning, the consumer price index came in like a smoking hot tamale, +7.3% YoY (Core +5.9% YoY), but was underestimated as the headline printed a shocking +7.5% YoY – the highest since March 1982.

Below shows how food prices are soaring and becoming significant drivers drivers of overall inflation.

Let’s not stop at avocado. Americans will also be paying exorbitantly high prices for chicken.

end

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.3570

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3588

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 17.69 PTS OR 0.07%

2. Nikkei closed

3. Europe stocks ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 95.74/Euro FALLS TO 1.1404-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.230/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 115.83/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 91.26 and Brent: 92.55–

3f Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE CLOSED UP// OFF- SHORE UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.0.221%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 1.79% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.09%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.57: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 2.62

3k Gold at $1831.90 silver at: 23.03 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 15/100 in roubles/dollar AT 75.18

3m oil into the 91 dollar handle for WTI and 92 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 115.93 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9261– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0561well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.005 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.277 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.49

Futures Reverse Overnight Rout As Doubts Emerge About Aggressive Fed Hiking

FRIDAY, FEB 11, 2022 – 07:51 AM

After initially sinking sharply, with S&P futures dropping as much as 1% overnight on concerns that aggressive rate hikes from the Fed aimed at curbing stubbornly high inflation could plunge the US into recession and crash risk assets, US equity futures have recovered most of their losses after an overnight article from Bloomberg reported that the “Fed Doesn’t Yet Favor a Half-Point Hike or an Emergency Move” easing investor nerves that a massive hike is imminent. Contracts on the Nasdaq were also flat after earlier retreating as much as 1.2% as growth stocks are especially sensitive to rising rates and bond yields. Still, absent a powerful bounce today, the S&P 500 is set to snap a two-week winning streak.

The benchmark S&P 500 has struggled to gain for three weeks in a row since November as the Fed signaled it was prepared to tighten monetary policy to rein in red-hot inflation, but strategists say a broader selloff across stock markets is unlikely. Helping ease the overnight selling panic, the selloff in sovereign bonds eased, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about three basis points to hover around the 2% level. The two-year yield was little changed after jumping the most since 2009 on Thursday. Bonds across Europe were mixed, with Germany’s 10-year yield dropping two basis points. The dollar rose and bitcoin rebounded from Thursday lows.

“With seven Fed hikes (one per meeting) virtually priced in now, interest rate expectations cannot get much more hawkish before the March meeting. This should allow markets to stabilize in coming weeks,” said Andrea Cicione, head of research at TS Lombard in London.

Overnight, Goldman poured more gasoline on the rate hike fire when it again revised its rates forecast and now sees the Fed raising rates seven times this year to contain inflation, up from the five increases it previously anticipated, and in line with market expectations. That’s a 25 bp hike at every meeting left on the calendar this year. Traders also expect 175 bps of tightening by the end of 2022, with almost 50 bps priced in for March.

In premarket trading, Didi’s U.S.-listed shares fell after Tencent said that it hasn’t bought stock in the ride-hailing firm since it went public. Zillow shares jumped 14% after reporting earnings that beat the highest expectations. The company’s goal of becoming the “housing super app” is welcomed by investors. Here are the other most notable premarket movers:

Expedia (EXPE US) shares gained 5% in postmarket trading on Thursday, after the online travel agency reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations.
Freshworks (FRSH US) dropped 6.5% postmarket after the software company’s full-year loss per share forecast missed the average analyst estimate at the midpoint. The company also noted that all remaining shares subject to lockup agreements will become eligible for sale as of Monday.
Shares of buy-now, pay-later firm Affirm Holdings (AFRM US) slump 10% in U.S. premarket trading, a day after its worst decline on record.
Dexcom Inc. shares dropped 3.9% in the postmarket after the glucose monitor manufacturer forecast FY22 revenue that missed the average analyst estimate.
Yelp shares gained 4.3% in extended trading on Thursday, after the online review site reported fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted Ebitda that beat expectations. It also gave a full-year forecast for adjusted Ebitda.
Bloom Energy (BE US) shares rose 8.8% postmarket after the power equipment maker beat analyst revenue and profit estimates.
Avalara (AVLR US) shares jumped 4% in postmarket trading after the company forecast revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

European equities fell alongside US equity futures, with real estate, tech and health care the worst performing sectors. Most Stoxx 600 sectors are in red with the broader Stoxx 600 Index down 0.8%, with technology stocks underperforming as their earnings projections suffer from higher interest rates. DAX outperforms dropping 0.8%, while the FTSE MIB lags dropping 1.4%. Among individual stocks, Mercedes-Benz AG outperformed after exceeding its profitability target last year Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

Tate & Lyle shares jump as much as 10%, the most since March 2020, after the company provided a 3Q sales update that Jefferies called “reassuring.”
Mercedes-Benz Group gains after the carmaker reported preliminary FY21 results, including adjusted returns on sales at its cars and vans segment of about 12.7%, exceeding guidance.
BMW rises as it says it sees positive one-time effect in the financial result of EU7 billion to EU8 billion following the increase of its stake in Chinese BMW Brilliance Automotive joint venture.
Boliden rises, continuing a week-long rising streak, after posting 4Q earnings that included a beat on EPS. DNB notes operations and mining volumes were “much ahead of expectations.”
Sweco shares rise the most since November 2020, after the company presented its fourth-quarter earnings that included operating profit beating analyst expectations.
Ipsen shares rose as much as 5.9% after the French drugmaker gave 2022 guidance that Bloomberg Intelligence says is likely to lead to upgrades to consensus.
Delivery Hero shares drop as much as 13%, extending Thursday’s record plunge, as more analysts cut their price targets after the company published an underwhelming 2022 outlook.
Volvo Cars falls after posting 4Q earnings, which included a miss on operating income, which dropped 24% y/y. Kepler Cheuvreux notes semiconductor shortage will continue to impact the auto maker.
Fresenius Medical Care shares drop 5.1% after Jefferies downgraded the stock to neutral, saying the company “may not be not over the worst,” citing an update of mortality data.
Naturgy shares slid 10%, the most since March 2020, after the company announced plans to split its infrastructure unit from the energy business.

Asian stocks dropped after an unexpectedly large surge in U.S. inflation caused a spike in Treasury yields, hammering growth shares with rich valuations. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index declined as much as 1.2%, the most in two weeks, with technology names like Tencent, Meituan and Infosys the biggest drags on the gauge. Smaller, tech-heavy indexes were big losers in South Korea and Hong Kong. Markets in Japan were shut for a holiday. Friday’s losses spoil what has otherwise been a positive week for Asian stocks, helped by an advance in China following the market’s return from the Lunar New Year holidays. The CSI 300 Index rose and is on course for its best week in two months after Chinese state-backed funds were said to have bought local stocks earlier. The broader Asian equity gauge including Japan looks poised to beat the S&P 500 Index for a second straight week. “Now that the Fed has to tighten quite a bit more aggressively to slow down this inflation, I think it does increase the recession risks,” said Rajeev de Mello, a global macro portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “But within risky assets, I like Asia on a relative basis because it has been cheap.” Equities in Hong Kong and on the mainland also fared better as data late on Thursday showed Chinese banks extended a record amount of loans in January, providing a boost to a slowing economy

Australian stocks declined most in two weeks: the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 1% to close at 7,217.30, marking its biggest drop since Jan. 27. Regional stocks retreated after a surprise jump in U.S. inflation increased bets on accelerated Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. Insurance Australia was among the top performers after raising its forecast for gross written premiums. Zip had one of the biggest declines after peer Affirm forecast quarterly revenue that missed analysts’ estimates. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.9% to 12,173.78.

India’s benchmark share index fell, in line with Asian and European peers, dragged down by further declines in information technology firms. The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 1.3% to close at 58,152.92 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also dropped by an equal measure. The key gauges fell 0.8% each for the week, their third retreat in four weeks. All of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. slipped. A gauge of information technology companies has fallen 9.4% this year, the most among sector indexes in India. Foreign funds have been net sellers of Indian equities since the end of September, taking out more than $10 billion. They have sold $850 million local stocks this month through Feb. 9, while Thursday’s provisional numbers showed further selling of 17.3 billion rupees ($231m). Out of the 45 Nifty 50 companies that have reported quarterly numbers so far, 25 either met or exceeded analyst estimates, 18 missed and two can’t be compared. Generic drug maker Divi’s Laboratories was the latest to report December quarter earnings ahead of analysts’ view. “With earnings season winding down, investors will turn their attention back to macroeconomic concerns, with special focus on inflation numbers,” Mitul Shah, head of research at Reliance Securities, said in a note. Infosys contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 2.7%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 25 fell while 5 traded higher

In rates, Treasury yields are mostly lower, led by long end, paring less than half of Thursday’s surge, with the 10Y hovering around 2.00% after hitting 2.05% on Thursday and enduring their worst start to a year in more than four decades; front-end yields are little changed, long-end yields richer by ~4bp; 2s10s breached 40bp, 5s30s 32bp. Key curve spreads reach new multimonth lows. Fed is slated to announce final monthly purchase schedule at 3pm ET, expected to taper to $20b Treasuries and $10b MBS. Overnight index swaps price in ~45bp of policy rate increase for the Fed’s March meeting, ~170bp for December FOMC meeting. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Bund and Treasury curves bull flatten. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund widening 5.9bps.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index initially advanced for a second day as the greenback was higher against most of its Group-of-10 peers and commodity-linked currencies led declines, however as US traders walked in the BBFXY dipped into the red. The euro fell a first day in three to touch a one-week low of $1.1370. The German sovereign yield curve bull flattened while Italian notes sold off as markets priced in an earlier end to the ECB’s bond purchases. The pound hovered and short-dated Gilts fell as traders fully priced an unconventional half-point interest-rate hike from the BOE, betting that policy makers will front-load tightening to maintain credibility on inflation. Australian and New Zealand dollars underperformed their Group-of-10 peers amid further repricing of the greenback after surging inflation spurred expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. RBA Governor Lowe’s comments curbed gains in Aussie bond yields after saying he’s prepared to tolerate inflation above the upper end of his 2-3% target range, reinforcing signals that Australia’s first interest-rate increase remains some way off.

In commodities, crude futures advance. WTI trades within Thursday’s range, adding 0.5% to trade near $90.31. Most base metals trade in the red; LME copper falls 2.6%, underperforming peers. Spot gold is little changed. Crypto markets remain relatively contained, in-fitting with APAC trade; Bitcoin -0.6%.

Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include UK GDP for Q4, whilst in the US there’s also the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for February. Otherwise, central banks speakers include the Fed’s Barkin, and the ECB’s Elderson and Visco, and the Central Bank of Russia will be making its latest policy decision.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 4,471.00
MXAP down 0.6% to 190.50
MXAPJ down 0.9% to 625.27
Nikkei up 0.4% to 27,696.08
Topix up 0.5% to 1,962.61
Hang Seng Index little changed at 24,906.66
Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,462.95
Sensex down 1.2% to 58,237.49
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.0% to 7,217.27
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,747.71
STOXX Europe 600 down 1.2% to 466.62
German 10Y yield little changed at 0.26%
Euro down 0.3% to $1.1392
Brent Futures up 0.4% to $91.78/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,827.00
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.34% to 95.88

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Federal Reserve officials are in no rush to raise interest rates prior to their scheduled policy meeting next month, nor is a half percentage-point move in March yet likely, despite a bigger-than-expected jump in consumer prices that stoked speculation about such options
The U.K. economy expanded at the fastest pace since World War II last year after suffering a milder hit than expected in December. The 7.5% expansion was the largest since 1941 and made Britain the fastest-growing advanced economy in 2021
Raising interest rates “would not solve any of the current problems,” ECB President Christine Lagarde told Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland in an interview released on Friday. “On the contrary: if we acted too hastily now, the recovery of our economies could be considerably weaker and jobs would be jeopardized”
The European Commission’s financial services head insisted that U.K. clearinghouses will get no further access to the bloc’s markets after 2025, knocking back the Bank of England governor’s calls for an indefinite trade route into the European Union

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

Asian stocks declined after hot US CPI and hawkish Bullard comments fuelled expectations for 7 Fed hikes this year. ASX 200 (-1.0%) was pressured with the tech sector suffering the brunt of the higher yield environment. Nikkei 225 was closed. Hang Seng (-0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.7%) were also subdued but with losses in the mainland stemmed after stronger than expected Aggregate Financing data from China and with press reports speculating that the PBoC could ease again next week.

Top Asian News

Hong Kong Seeks China’s Help; Protests Spread: Virus Update
Softbank Tells U.S. Judge It Will Resist Credit Suisse Subpoena
Hong Kong’s New Covid Rules Face Resistance From Weary Public
China Developers Jump After Reports on Presale Fund Use

European bourses are pressured, Stoxx 600 -0.8%, after a negative US close on hot-CPI was exacerbated by further hawkish Fed speak/speculation. Sectors within Europe are all in the red though Tech lies as the clear laggard amid rate expectations. US futures are in-fitting with their European peers with the NQ -0.8%, modestly underperforming.

Top European News

Blinken Says Asia is Watching; Saab Orders Up: Ukraine Update
U.K. Covid Rebound Sees Best Annual Growth Since World War II
Germany Final Jan. Consumer Prices Rise 0.4% M/m, Est. +0.4%
Half-Point BOE Rate Increase Looks a Done Deal for Traders

In FX, the buck boosted by hawkish rate rise and balance sheet reduction preferences from Fed’s Bullard. Aussie undermined as risk sentiment sours amidst heightened inflation concerns, but RBA Governor remains patient. Euro recoils after another effort to manage hyper market tightening expectations by ECB President Lagarde. Rouble unable to benefit from 100 bp CBR hike as geopolitical angst rumbles on. CBR Key Rate (Feb) 9.50% vs. Exp. 9.50% (Prev. 8.50%); if situation develops in-line with the baseline forecasts they hold open the prospect of further hikes in coming meetings. Key Rate Forecast (2022): 9.0-11.0% (prev. 7.3-8.3%).

In commodities, WTI and Brent are firmer in an attempt to recuperate from yesterday’s pressure as the overall geopolitical situation remains tense. US President Biden said he will work to bring gas prices down and strengthen supply chains to bring the cost of energy and goods down, according to the White House. IEA OMR: Global oil supply 98.7mln BPD (+560k BPD); oil market is still set to shift to a surplus in Q2/H2-2022. OPEC+ effective spare capacity could fall to 2.5mln BPD (prev. 5.1mln BPD) by end-2022. Spot gold and silver are continuing to err lower though the yellow-metal has settled just above the 21-DMA at 1819/oz. Brazilian miner Vale Q4 iron ore production at 82.47mln tons and its 2021 iron ore output reached 315.61mln tons

In fixed income, bonds licked some wounds post-hot US inflation metrics, but curves stay flat amidst heightened Fed tightening expectations. UST yields still elevated as 2022 FOMC voter Bullard gets aggressive and mentions inter-meeting moves and 100 bp hikes by end H1. BTPs bogged down by issuance and hardly helped by Italy’s Treasury Debt chief claiming no significant selling. Italian Treasury Debt Head says they have not seen significant selling trend in Italian gov’t bonds; says a hike in interest rates will reflect on the average cost of debt very slowly. Italy’s average cost of debt will continue below nominal growth rate.

In geopolitics:

Russian Kremlin envoy Kozak said there were no results at the meeting that could be transformed into an agreement and they hope that Ukraine is wise enough not to start military action against its own citizens, according to Reuters.
Russia’s Kremlin notes that yesterday’s 4-Nation (Normandy) talks regarding Ukrainian tensions yielded no results.
Ukraine’s Head of the Presidential Office Yermak said all parties confirmed they are ready to continue negotiations but could not agree on signing of a document in Berlin, while he added everyone expressed support for the cease-fire and there is a will to continue negotiating in Russia talks, according to Reuters.
US President Biden said Americans should leave Ukraine now and that things could turn crazy very quickly, while the State Department also issued an advisory that Americans should depart Ukraine now, according to Reuters.
US Secretary of State Blinken says they continue to see very troubling signs re. Russian escalation over Ukraine, continues to draw down its embassy in Ukraine, an invasion of Ukraine could occur at any point, including during the Beijing Olympics; notes new forces are arriving near the border.
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg says they are assessing if longer-term presence in the eastern-flank is needed.

US event calendar

10am: Feb. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 3.1%
10am: Feb. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 5.0%, prior 4.9%
10am: Feb. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 64.5, prior 64.1
10am: Feb. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 72.1, prior 72.0
10am: Feb. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 67.0, prior 67.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

What a day we had yesterday with the blockbuster US CPI release (full round up later). Indeed the 7.5% YoY print (vs 7.2% expected) even raised the small possibility of the first intermeeting Fed rate hike since 1994, and before that since 1979. It also raises the risk that a recession might be increasingly difficult to avoid. Indeed the worry I had in last month’s chart book “The road to the next Recession” (link here) was that this was going to be a much shorter, more boom bust US cycle than the last four super long ones with a US recession by H1 2024 a strong possibility. The theory was that the Fed was way behind the curve and that by around the turn of 2022 the 2s10s curve would invert (it almost always flattens in a hiking cycle) and start the timer clock for a recession 12-18 months later. With the surging US CPI print yesterday the risks have to be skewed towards the US curve inverting even earlier than that and starting the countdown clock earlier.

Indeed our US economists yesterday moved up their US Fed call to a 50bps hike in March plus five more 25bp hikes in 2022, a hike at all but the November meeting, and totalling 175bps in 2022. They also highlight the increasing risk of a 2023 or 2024 recession. See their note here. I can’t help wondering what future historians will make of the Fed still doing QE when inflation was 7.5%? Clearly forward guidance is a useful tool when you have uncertainty but around regime change it can prove a nightmare. For several months we’ve had to wait patiently until March to start the fight against inflation when in previous eras, when every meeting would have been live, rates would have likely been hiked many meetings ago.

Interestingly the market now prices some risk of an emergency hike before March. Fed funds futures for the month of February finished the day at 12.5bps, despite the fed funds rate printing at 8bps everyday so far in February, implying some small probability that the Fed will raise rates between now and the end of the month. The intermeeting hike furore reached its zenith with comments from Regional Fed President Bullard, a voter on the FOMC this year. After the CPI print and the Europe close Bullard said, “There was a time when the committee would have reacted to something like this to having a meeting right now and doing 25 basis points right now”, adding “I think we should be nimble and considering that kind of thing.” Bullard also mentioned a preference for having 100bps of rate hikes done by July, which is in line with our US econ team’s updated call. At the other end of the spectrum, San Francisco Fed President Daly, not a voter this year, preferred not to send a strong signal that liftoff would be 50bps in March. The view of most voters probably falls somewhere between the two.

Bullard’s remarks helped accelerate the policy repricing that had already begun after CPI. The probability of a 50bps hike in March rose to 80%, which was up from 29% at the close the previous day, and earlier briefly priced in more than a 100% chance of a 50bp hike during Bullard’s remarks. This growing conviction in the odds of future tightening could be seen beyond March as well, with 114bps worth of hikes now priced in by the July meeting, crossing 100bps for the first time, which would imply back-to-back hikes until then if the Fed were to move in 25bp increments. And looking at the year as a whole, futures are now pricing in 6.6 full hikes by the December meeting (5.5 previous close), which is more than double the 2.96 hikes expected at the end of 2021, which let’s not forget was only six weeks ago today.

When it came to rates yesterday, that CPI report was the catalyst to finally push 10yr Treasury yields above 2% for the first time since August 2019, with a +10.8bps rise on the day seeing it close at 2.05%. The move was driven predominantly by real rates, as real 10yr yields increased +8.3bps. However, the big story of the day was the much sharper moves at the front-end as investors priced in a more aggressive Fed. The 2yr yield rose an astonishing +21.4bps on the day to 1.58%, the largest daily increase since June 2009, meaning that the 2s10s curve reached its flattest since August 2020, at just 44bps. For those of us warning about recessionary signals, that’s an ominous sign given that the 2s10s curve has inverted prior to every single US recession in recent decades.

That move in rates was echoed in Europe. Yields on 10yr bunds (+7.0ps), OATs (+8.2bps) and gilts (+9.5bps) all rose to fresh highs, and in line with the pattern over recent days, that coincided with another widening in peripheral spreads, with the gap between 10yr Italian yields over bunds up +6.9bps to 161bps, the biggest since June 2020. The big difference to the US though was that European curves steepened as the front end was anchored by a lift-off in Europe that still seems beyond the immediate horizon. Having said that 5.010bp hikes are priced in now vs 4.3 the night before.

With the sharp repricing toward tighter Fed policy, US equities marched lower throughout the day, with the S&P 500 falling -1.81%, every sector finished lower and the VIX increased +4.0pts to 23.9pts. Interest rate sensitive sectors led the declines, and in line with this the NASDAQ fell -2.10%. Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.21%) saw smaller losses, and a number of indices including the DAX (+0.05%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.38%) actually moved higher on the day. They all closed before the bulk of the US sell-off though.

In terms of the headlines from the release, (Our US econ team’s full wrap here) the monthly CPI print came in at +0.6% in January, which was a slight acceleration from the December reading if you look at the second decimal place, and went against the consensus expectation of a deceleration to +0.4%. That now marks the 9th time in the last 11 releases that the monthly headline has come in above the Bloomberg consensus, and pushed up the year-on-year number to a post-1982 high of +7.5% (vs. +7.3% expected). Core also surprised on the upside, with a monthly gain of +0.6% (vs. +0.5% expected), sending the annual rate up to +6.0% (vs. +5.9% expected). Our economists now have headline CPI peaking at +7.7% in February and have headline inflation at +4.1% at the end of the year. They have core CPI peaking at +6.4% in March, and ending the year at +3.9%.

What should concern the Fed is how broad this inflation is getting – trimmed mean CPI (which cuts out the biggest prices moves in either direction) came in at +0.63%, which is the second highest on record going back to 1983, and rents (+0.54%) had their strongest monthly gain since 1992. Rents have followed our model nicely over the last 9 months. See it on page 18 of the chart book linked at the top. A big hat tip to DB’s Francis Yared who first alerted me to the upcoming rents issue last summer.

Talking of Francis, his team updated their rates views yesterday (link here), and now see the 10yr Treasury yield rising to 2.5% in Q3 (from 2.4%), along with the 10yr bund yield moving to 0.8% that quarter as well.

Asian equities are turning down as I type with the Shanghai Composite (-0.22%), Hang Seng (-0.60%) and Kospi (-0.92%) now lower after a brighter start. Elsewhere, markets in Japan are closed for a holiday today. Moving ahead, US equity futures are extending losses this morning with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.87%) and Nasdaq (-1.04%) moving lower again. The Euro has fallen -0.3% overnight after a German magazine published an article where Lagarde warned that if the ECB went too fast it would threaten the recovery. She again reiterated that the US and UK have a different situation to the Euro Area.

Back to yesterday and the one respite from the highest inflation in decades was in commodities. Despite increasing as much as +1.69% intraday to $93.10/bbl, Brent crude ended the day -0.12% lower at $91.44/bbl. The turn in oil coincided with the turn in equities, as perhaps the reality of a hard landing hit risk sentiment. Industrial metals were the only part of the commodity complex in the green, with copper (+1.94%) at its highest since October.

Elsewhere on the data front yesterday, the US weekly initial jobless claims for the week through February 5 fell for a 3rd consecutive week to 223k (vs. 230k expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK GDP for Q4, whilst in the US there’s also the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for February. Otherwise, central banks speakers include the Fed’s Barkin, and the ECB’s Elderson and Visco, and the Central Bank of Russia will be making its latest policy decision.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

Bank of Japan are very worried about the rise in yields globally. To prevent the rise in Japan, the B.of J. now sets up an offer to buy unlimited 10 yr JGB’s at .25%

(zerohedge)

Bank of Japan Offers To Buy Unlimited 10 Year JGBs To Contain Bond Rout

THURSDAY, FEB 10, 2022 – 05:20 PM

While Fed chair Powell may have capitulated to the relentless daily demands from the one-term president who unleashed the closest thing to hyperinflation the US has witnessed in 40 years, to somehow contain inflation (the kind of inflation the Fed has no control over) and to hike rates no matter what the fallout in capital markets is – and judging by today’s stunning 30bps move in the 2 Year we are looking at some epic carnage…

… Japan, whose debt levels blow away every other nation in the world, is not willing to take any such gambles, and on Thursday, the Bank of Japan said it would buy an unlimited amount of 10-year government bonds at 0.25% in defense of the BOJ’s Yield Curve Control limits, underscoring its resolve to prevent rising global yields from pushing up domestic borrowing costs too much.

The offer will be made on Monday, the central bank said in a statement posted on its website after the JGB market closed, although should the US bond crash spill over to Japan, it will have to pull forward its bond market bailout.

The announcement came after the 10-year JGB yield rose to 0.23% on Thursday, the highest since 2016 and close to the 0.25% cap the BOJ set around its target of 0%. The 10-year yield briefly fell after the news and was last at 0.22%.

Investors have increasingly expected the BOJ to step in to rein in recent steady rises in yields. But the timing came as a surprise for some players as previous such operations were all announced during JGB market trading hours.

As Reuters notes, stubbornly hot inflation in the West and growing hawkishness from other major central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve had spurred some bets that the BOJ would need to taper its ultra-loose monetary policy soon, pushing JGB yields to multi-year highs. But while Japanese inflation is edging up – slowly – it remains well below the BOJ’s 2% target and the economy’s recovery from a pandemic-induced slump has lagged many of its peers. Wages, in particular, are not picking up as fast as in other countries.

“The BOJ sent a strong message to markets of its resolve to curb any rise in yield above 0.25%,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.

By announcing its plan days in advance, the BOJ sought to contain the selloff (and shorting) and discourage players from testing the 0.25% line as well as pre-empting any breach of that level – without actually having to purchase JGBs, said former central bank board member Takahide Kiuchi.

“If the BOJ announced the offer during market hours, it would have had to buy huge amount of JGBs. That would be tantamount to strengthening monetary easing, which it wanted to avoid,” he said. “It’s a curve ball by the BOJ.”

Perhaps, but one way or another, the selling will continue as the rate rout spreads to Japan and the BOJ will have to step in.

Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, said the BOJ probably made the announcement as a precaution to avoid yields from spiking next week after a three-day holiday in Japan that begins on Friday.

“It’s uncertain whether JGB yields will slide back because the recent rise was driven by growing market alarm over global inflationary risks and higher U.S. Treasury yields,” she said.

According to Valentin Marinov, strategist at Credit Agricole, the Bank of Japan’s offer to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year notes is part of efforts to restore its credibility and grip on yield-curve control: “The BOJ is trying to restore the credibility of its yield curve control policy framework which has come under pressure recently following the U.S. Treasuries selloff.” He added that “the BOJ is clearly not worried about a runaway inflation in Japan and instead seems to try to maintain favorable financial conditions.”

Under its yield curve control policy, the BOJ pledges to cap the 10-year JGB yield around 0% to keep borrowing costs low and stimulate the economy. In a policy review conducted in March last year, the BOJ clarified that it will allow the 10-year JGB yield to move 25 basis points on either size of zero. It was intended to breathe life back into a market made dormant by the BOJ’s huge presence, where days would pass without a single trade.

Markets have been focusing on how the BOJ would respond to creeping JGB yields. The offer to buy unlimited amount of JGBs at 0.25% would be the most powerful weapon the central bank has to control the 10-year yield around its target.

3c CHINA

CHINA

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/INFLATION

Brits are facing a perfect storm of rising taxes, heating costs and food inflation The citizens are not happy

(zerohedge)

Britons Face “Perfect Storm” Of Rising Taxes, Heating Costs, & Food Inflation

FRIDAY, FEB 11, 2022 – 04:15 AM

The British people are facing a serious cost-crunch in terms of their cost of living as heating costs surge up to 50% while taxes climb and inflation eats away at people’s earnings – all while Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey urges the British people not to ask for raises this year – a comment that landed him in hot water earlier this week.

Like in the US, inflation in the UK has surged to its highest annualized reading in December since March 1992 (5.4%, compared with 7% in the US).

Fortunately for Britons on the dole, their welfare payments will increase by 3.1% in April, HMG announced earlier this month.

Meanwhile, the latest official data showed that average earnings fell by around 1% in November from a year earlier, when adjusted to take inflation into account. That marked the first decline in wages since the height of the coronavirus pandemic. On the other hand, taxes on earned income increased by 1.25 percentage points from April to help HMG pay for social care costs, according to PM Boris Johnson.

On Friday, data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics revealed that between Jan. 19 and Jan. 30, one in five British adults said they had found it difficult to pay their bills over the prior month.

Here’s more from CNBC:

More than two-thirds of adults also said their cost of living had increased since November, with the most reported reason for this being the increased cost of food. The ONS interviewed almost 3,500 people.
In the four weeks to Jan. 23, grocery prices in the U.K. rose by 3.8% compared to the same period a year earlier, data from analytics firm Kantar shows. The company’s analysis looked at year-on-year price changes of more than 75,000 products.
“Taken over the course of a 12-month period, this rise in prices could add an extra £180 ($244) to the average household’s annual grocery bill,” Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said via email.
“We’re now likely to see shoppers striving to keep costs down by searching for cheaper products and promotions.”

And Tesco Chairman John Allan told the BBC during an interview on the channel’s Sunday morning program that “the worst is yet to come” in terms of rising food prices (for Americans who aren’t familiar, Tesco is one of Britain’s biggest supermarket chains). The rate of food inflation would likely hit 5% this spring, Allan said, as energy costs and other factors continued to rise.

What’s more, Sonali Punhani, UK economist at Credit Suisse, predicted that the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy further this year, which in turn would put the brakes on inflation by the second half of the year.

“We think the BoE could hike rates again by 25 basis points in March 2022, sooner than our previous forecast of May 2022,” he said in an emailed statement.
“In the second half of 2022, inflation is expected to fall, which could reduce the pressure on the BoE to hike rates. Our view is that despite the fall in inflation in H2 2022, further monetary tightening is warranted, and we forecast three further rate hikes in 2022 and three hikes in 2023. We think the drop in inflation is likely to slow the hiking cycle, but not stop it.”

As we explained earlier this week, the UK’s reliance on natural gas as its primary energy source has resulted in the country and its utilities being squeezed by surging LNG prices, since the country has become increasingly reliant on imported LNG. rather than using the abundant coal found throughout Great Britain.

The last two years have already devastated small businesses. Now, they will be forced to make another round of “impossible choices”, while millions of cash-strapped consumers are forced to do the same.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

USA/RUSSIA

USA state dept. issues highest level do not travel warning for the UKraine

(zerohedge)

US State Dept Issues Highest-Level “Do Not Travel” Warning For Ukraine

THURSDAY, FEB 10, 2022 – 06:40 PM

Despite Ukraine and NATO agreeing that the threat of a Russian invasion is “low”, the US State Department has cranked up the propaganda dial to ’11’ on the amplifier of fearmongering by issuing a “Level 4: Do Not Travel” advisory for US citizens in, or considering traveling to, Ukraine.

As a reminder, on Sunday Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged his fellow citizens to ignore “apocalyptic predictions” that a Russian invasion is imminent. Kuleba sought to calm his country by further saying, “Different capitals have different scenarios, but Ukraine is ready for any development.” It reaffirms President Volodymyr Zelensky’s words from a week ago saying there are “no tanks in the streets” and that foreign media must stop stoking unnecessary panic.

NATO’s most senior military officer said Monday that in his assessment, Russia has yet to place enough of a troop force near Ukraine at this point for any kind of large-scale invasion…

Admiral Rob Bauer, NATO’s most senior military officer, said that Russia will have assembled enough military forces to potentially stage an operation against Ukraine at the end of February. But he added that officials cannot determine Putin’s intention or plans regarding Kyiv and that NATO doesn’t currently envision a direct threat to alliance members.
“Up until now, we don’t see an intent, we don’t expect an attack on NATO soil by Russia -– either directly or via Belarus,” he said Monday at a news conference in Vilnius.

But, none of that matters to the US State Department:

Do not travel to Ukraine due to the increased threats of Russian military action and COVID-19; those in Ukraine should depart now via commercial or private means. If remaining in Ukraine, exercise increased caution due to crime, civil unrest, and potential combat operations should Russia take military action. Some areas have increased risk. Read the entire Travel Advisory.
On January 23, 2022, the Department of State authorized the voluntary departure of U.S. direct hire employees (USDH) and ordered the departure of eligible family members (EFM) from Embassy Kyiv due to the continued threat of Russian military action. U.S. citizens should not travel to Ukraine, and those in Ukraine should depart now using commercial or other privately available transportation options.
There are continued reports of a Russian military build-up on the border with Ukraine, indicating potential for significant military action against Ukraine. The security conditions, particularly along Ukraine’s borders, in Russia-occupied Crimea, and in Russia-controlled eastern Ukraine, are unpredictable and can deteriorate with little notice. Demonstrations, which have turned violent at times, regularly occur throughout Ukraine, including in Kyiv.
U.S. citizens in Ukraine should be aware that the U.S. government will not be able to evacuate U.S. citizens in the event of Russian military action anywhere in Ukraine. Military action may commence at any time and without warning and would also severely impact the U.S. Embassy’s ability to provide consular services, including assistance to U.S. citizens in departing Ukraine. For more information, please review what the U.S. government can and cannot do to assist you in a crisis overseas.
The Department asks all U.S. citizens in Ukraine to complete an online form so that we may better communicate with you. This is especially important if you plan to remain in Ukraine.
Crimea – Do Not Travel
Russia occupies and has attempted to annex Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula, and there is extensive Russian Federation military presence in Crimea. Occupation authorities continue to abuse and arbitrarily imprison foreigners and the local population, particularly individuals who are seen as opposing Russia’s occupation of the peninsula. The U.S. government prohibits its employees from traveling to Crimea and is unable to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in Crimea.
Donetsk and Luhansk – Do Not Travel
Russia-led forces control areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, where the ongoing armed conflict has resulted in more than 14,000 deaths. Individuals, including U.S. citizens, have been threatened, detained, or kidnapped for hours or days after being stopped at checkpoints controlled by Russia-led forces. The U.S. government restricts USDH from traveling to the eastern parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and adjacent regions, which limits the ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in these regions.
Crime targeting foreigners and property is common. Politically targeted assassinations and bombings have also occurred. There are reports of violent attacks on minority groups and police by radical groups.

So, after seeing inflation hit a 40 year high (after saying he would control it) and various establishment types starting to flip-flop on the most draconian and anti-science COVID containment policies, President Biden needs something, anything, to get his approval rating back above 40 (a record low for him)… and it appears that ‘fear’ is the unifier of choice. in this case of Russia.

Biden followed this warning up with an interview with NBC News’ anchor Lester Holt, saying that “American citizens should leave now.”

“It’s not like we’re dealing with a terrorist organization. We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It’s a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly.”

Holt asked Biden what scenario could prompt him to send troops to rescue Americans fleeing the country. Biden replied:

“There’s not. That’s a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another.”
“We’re in a very different world than we’ve ever been,” he added.

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

END

BELARUS, USA/NATO

This is very unusual, the Pentagon holds a rare call with Belarus Army Chief to avoid any “miscalculation”

(zerohedge)

Pentagon Holds Rare Call With Belarus Army Chief To Avoid “Miscalculation”

FRIDAY, FEB 11, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Russia and Belarus on Thursday launched hugely provocative planned joint military drills, which were promptly condemned by French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian as “a very violent gesture.” UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson responded Thursday by saying Europe faces its “biggest security crisis in decades.” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said it was part of Moscow’s efforts at applying “psychological pressure” amid a broader troop build-up threatening the country’s borders.

Zelensky said “the accumulation of forces at the border is psychological pressure from our neighbors” – though he also days ago admitted to The Wall Street Journal that a Russian invasion remains “unlikely”. “The exercises – known as Allied Resolve 2022 – are taking place close to the Belarusian border with Ukraine, which is a little over 1,000km (620 miles) long. Thursday was the start of the active phase of the drills,” BBC detailed of the exercises. “There are fears that if Russia tries to invade Ukraine, the exercises put Russian troops close to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, making an attack on the city easier.”

At the same time Russia has just sent six warships from the Mediterranean Sea to the Black Sea ahead of the drills, and a beefed up Russian naval presence is expected in the Sea of Azov as well. Russia’s Defense Ministry has stated the aim of the drills as centering around “suppressing and repelling external aggression.”

NATO denounced the drills as representing a “dangerous moment” for European security. The US has estimated it believes some 30,000 Russian troops will surge into Belarus as part of the war games.

However, Moscow has not confirmed the numbers, and has sought to assure its troops will return home upon the end of the drills, after Feb.20. Long-range bombers among other aircraft, as well as anti-air defenses have been deployed as part of the exercises.

Russia’s Chief of the General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov is currently in the former Soviet nation overseeing the games with his Belarussian counterpart.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon has revealed it held rare military-to-military communications with Belarus for the purpose of avoiding a “miscalculation”, the AFP reports.

The avoidance of an unnecessary or inadvertent encounter is of prime importance especially given the drills will involve “live-fire” action on the part of the Russians and Belarussian military.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg earlier warned, “The number of Russian forces is going up. The warning time for a possible attack is going down,” a news conference with UK PM Johnson. “Renewed Russian aggression will lead to more NATO presence, not less,” he said.

end

YEMEN/SAUDI ARABIA

last month very violent as Yemen sees the most casualties from the Saudi Air war effort

(Dave DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

Yemen Sees Most Casualties From Saudi Air War In 5 Years

FRIDAY, FEB 11, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

A monthly summary from the Yemen Data Project of the Saudi-led coalition’s air war in Yemen found January 2022 was the most violent month for civilians since 2016. According to the data, 139 civilians were killed by Saudi air raids, and another 287 were wounded. It was the highest number of civilian casualties recorded in a single month since October 2016.

The deadliest air raid of the month hit a migrant detention facility in Sadaa on January 21st, which killed at least 91 civilians and wounded at least 237. The prison bombing was preceded by Saudi airstrikes on telecommunication infrastructure that also killed civilians and caused nationwide internet outages.

Yemen Data Project said the internet outage “had widespread impact on civilian communications and media coverage in another blow to accountability. Within hours the Saudi-led coalition carried out one of the deadliest bombings of the seven-year air campaign.”

Other major incidents include air raids on residential areas of the Maain district in the capital Sanaa, which killed 14 civilians, including five women and a child. Three separate airstrikes on vehicles and buses killed at least 17 civilians, including three children. Saudi airstrikes also hit hospitals, a food truck, and a food storage unit.

The Saudi escalation came after the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks against the UAE, a response to Abu Dhabi’s role in the war on Yemen that has been raging since 2015. The UAE likes to downplay its role in the war, but Abu Dhabi’s support for militants on the ground in Yemen has brought the Saudi-backed government recent success on the battlefield against the Houthis.

The US has responded to the Houthi attacks by escalating its role in the war and is sending a warship and F-22 fighter jets to the UAE. This support has been framed as “defensive” in nature.

But again, the Houthis wouldn’t be attacking their neighbors if not for the Saudi-led war, which is only able to continue due to US support. Experts agree that if the US stopped servicing Saudi warplanes, Riyadh’s air force would quickly be grounded.

end

Special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:

The deadly drums of upcoming potential war are beating and we await to see what fools march to the beat

PLEASE UNDERSTAND THIS as it will not be publicly known. The one trick ponies that pass for western leadership fail to understand history and geography let alone what this means. And this is super scary.

Russia has ALREADY deployed 240 hypersonic missiles that are armed with 25 megaton nuclear bombs. (The bomb dropped on Hiroshima was a 15 kiloton bomb {1000 kilotons = 1 megaton}.
One of those 25 megaton bombs on a Russian hypersonic missile is 166.6 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima). Does anyone understand what this means if this comes to war?

This changes the power structure of the world, since those new missiles cannot be knocked down by any known missile defense system. Those missiles have been spread out to land bases, ships, submarines and bombers around the world – and are ready to launch at a moment’s notice. And there is no magic known defense system that can stop them if and when unleashed. Does this sound like a country that will bend over for the WEST?

Today there was a 9 hour meeting in Berlin where the Ukraine basically and clearly said they will not comply with the MINSK Agreement and in so doing have by action told France, Germany and Russia they march to another master and are not going to honor their written agreements.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has accused his Ukrainian counterpart Dmitry Kuleba of lying “with a straight face” and compared his statements to those of Nazi propaganda chief Joseph Goebbels.

Speaking at a press conference in Moscow on Thursday, Lavrov recalled numerous public statements by the Ukrainian official that his country would not comply with the Minsk agreements – documents signed in 2014 and 2015 meant to serve as a road map for the resolution of conflict in eastern Ukraine.

As an example, Lavrov brought up Kuleba’s recent claim that Kiev would not engage in direct dialogue with the two breakaway regions Donetsk and Lugansk, since such dialogue is allegedly not covered by the Minsk agreements.

“Well, you see, this is definitely the school of Goebbels, and maybe even surpasses the art of the chief propagandist of the Third Reich,” Lavrov said. He explained that “to tell a lie with a straight face,” to reject internationally approved agreements and at the same time not to worry that the Western countries would pull you back, “is a quite comfortable position for the demagogues who are now defending their case, trying to rewrite the Minsk agreements.” Sadly, i doubt the West is capable of understanding what Lavrov said.

Previously i noted that the two breakaway regions have requested that the Russian Duma ( equivalent to Congress or Parliament) acknowledge the regions as independent. This will be heard on Monday the 14th. Should this occur, the regions could ask for protection from Russia against foreign parties. It would more than likely be extended. This clearly would change the situation on the ground and the region would have a Russian umbrella of protection from Ukraine and its’ handlers and foreign military on the ground in the Ukraine. Will the west at that MOMENT test fate and attack knowing full well that Russia will react in defensive capacity? In the interim, watch for a possible false flag as so called infamous “white Helmets” are active in the region. And it is clear Russia can make the area of these regions a no go zone without a single Russian soldier stepping outside of Russian soil.

Time will tell what happens. However we should keep in mind that Russia has no interest in taking over the Ukraine to fix the mess people like Cookies Nuland and others created and continue to exploit. Ukraine has a huge financial hole and Russia has no interest in draining its’ reserves or resources to bail out the citizens of the Ukraine at the expense of their own citizens.

end

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE

CANADA

Ontario Premier goes to the Superior court to freeze funds for anti war protesters. GiveSendGo is an American operation and the funds are in the uSA. The authorities at this charity state that they will

ignore this court order.

(zerohedge)

Ontario Premier Orders GiveSendGo To Freeze Funds For Anti-Mandate Protesters

THURSDAY, FEB 10, 2022 – 06:20 PM

Less than a week after GoFundMe, at the behest of the Mayor of Ottawa and Justin Trudeau, summarily closed their fundraiser which had exceeded $10 million, Ontario’s Premier, Doug Ford, has issued an order that essentially freezes any funds that have been raised thus far from the alternate crowdsourcing site ‘GiveSendGo’.

As April McAbee reports via CitizenStringer.com, the order specifically states that the fundraising platform Give Send Go is prohibited from doing anything with the funds.

Statement from the Office of the Premier of Ontario

“Today, the Attorney General brought an application in the Superior Court of Justice for an order pursuant to section 490.8 of the Criminal Code prohibiting any person from disposing of, or otherwise dealing with, in any manner whatsoever, any and all monetary donations made through the Freedom Convoy 2022 and Adopt-a-Trucker campaign pages on the GiveSendGo online fundraising platform.
This afternoon, the order was issued. It binds any and all parties with possession or control over these donations.”

Ivana Yelich

Executive Director of Media Relations Office of the Premier of Ontario

According to Katie Simpson, a CBC correspondent, “a spokesperson for the Premier’s office says this essentially means the funds are frozen for now.”

And the Americans are coming…

Give Send Go has yet to make a statement on the order.

In a statement on Monday when the company agreed to host the fundraiser, the platform stated, “GiveSendGo stands for hope and freedom. We recognize the freedoms we have are God-given, not authorized by governments, but rather freedoms that ought to be protected by our governments.”

The GiveSendGo fundraiser had raised almost 8.5 million dollars at the time the order was issued.

Just as Mark Jeftovic exclaimed last week, this proves bitcoin’s use-case, and just as we anticipated, it looks like a crypto-based crowd-funding platform Tallycoin remains as a method for Canadian truckers re-route their donations to help support the people on the front lines of the protest.

Anybody interested in the new platform can donate as little as a single Satoshi (presently, about 2,400 satoshis make up $1), and the fundraiser has a target of 2,100,000,000, and has raise 1.594 billion Sats so far (around $700,000).

The fundraiser on Tallycoin has the following message affixed to it:

“The Canadian Bitcoin community would like to have a second financial access point for #FreedomConvoy2022. Legacy financial infrastructure can sometimes be politicized and clamped down upon, whereas Bitcoin is a truly censorship resistant method of communicating value. Don’t allow your voices to be silenced, and don’t allow your financial sovereignty to be trampled upon.
Love, unity and freedom – let’s raise some hard money for hard workers!”

As Jeftovic explained, needless to say Bitcoin fixes this.

Today it is GoFundMe. In the future, when central banks roll out Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), it’ll be all economic activity that falls within the purview of national and Supra-national government and bureaucracy.

When those days arrive, everybody who will be reliant on government economic entitlements will be enduring a type of neo-Fuedalism: veritably digital slavery.

…Donating to #FreedomConvoy? Listening to Joe Rogan Experience? Those aren’t approved activities. That’ll cost you some demerits.

END

My goodness: this former employee of Obama, Juliette Kayyem, wants to slash the tires and arrest the drivers. She calls for violence against the freedom convoy

(zerohedge)

“Slash The Tires, Arrest The Drivers”: Harvard Professor And CNN Analyst Calls For Violence Against Freedom Convoy

THURSDAY, FEB 10, 2022 – 06:00 PM

Harvard professor, CNN analyst and former Obama admin undersecretary of Homeland Security Juliette Kayyem has called for violence and vandalism against Freedom Convoy protesters who have amassed on the bridge that connects Detroit, Michigan to Windsor, Ontario.

“The Ambassador Bridge link constitutes 28% of annual trade movement between US and Canada,” tweeted Kayyem. “Slash the tires, empty gas tanks, arrest the drivers, and move the trucks.”

In addition to a monumentally stupid idea considering the logistics of moving trucks with no fuel and slashed tires, one has to wonder if Kayyem is saying the quiet part out loud when it comes to how Democrats respond to non-BLM protests.

The blockade, now in its fourth day, has drawn the attention of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who called on Canadian authorities to reopen the bridge, according to the Epoch Times.

“The blockade is having a significant impact on Michigan’s working families who are just trying to do their jobs. Our communities and automotive, manufacturing, and agriculture businesses are feeling the effects. It’s hitting paychecks and production lines. That is unacceptable,” the Democratic governor said in a Thursday statement.

“It is imperative that Canadian local, provincial, and national governments de-escalate this economic blockade,” she added, without suggesting how. “They must take all necessary and appropriate steps to immediately and safely reopen traffic so we can continue growing our economy, supporting good-paying jobs, and lowering costs for families.”

According to Kayyem, slashing tires, stealing gas, arresting the protesters, and somehow moving all the trucks is the way to go.

END

Ford Corp is considering to fly car parts to Canadian factories as the trucker blocade continues

(zerohedge)

“We Just Want Our Freedom Back” – Ford Considers Flying Car Parts To Canada Factory As Trucker Blockade Continues

FRIDAY, FEB 11, 2022 – 08:04 AM

Earlier this week, we warned if the Ambassador Bridge that connects Windsor, Ontario, with Detroit, were to remain shuttered for more than 48 hours, there would be severe consequences for North America’s auto industry. By Thursday morning, automakers, including Toyota, Chrysler Pacifica, Ford, and General Motors, halted or limited production at their Canada/U.S. manufacturing plants due to the lack of parts usually sent via truck across the busiest international land border crossing between the U.S. and Canada. Now, at least one automaker is seeking logistical alternatives to bypass the blocked border crossing to restart its Canadian plants.

Reuters reports Ford is examining air freight as a way to sidestep the logistical nightmare around Ambassador Bridge as demonstrations against pandemic measures and vaccine mandates have chocked a key artery of US-Canada trade. The automaker wants to fly auto parts to a plant in Windsor that produces engines for popular models.

“We are looking at all options to keep our plants running,” a spokesperson for Ford’s Canadian division told Reuters.

On Wednesday, Ford told AP that it suspended engine production in Windsor.

“We hope this situation is resolved quickly because it could have a widespread impact on all automakers in the U.S. and Canada,” the company said.

Ford is not the only auto company experiencing logistical headaches because of the bridge closure. Toyota, Chrysler Pacifica, Ford, and General Motors halted or limited production at various plants in the region. Toyota expects to have three manufacturing facilities in Ontario offline for the rest of the week.

Robert Wildeboer, executive chairman of Martinrea International Inc., told Bloomberg that the auto industry might come to a “screeching halt” due to blockade. Martinrea is a major auto parts manufacturer based in Vaughan, Ontario. It manufactures engine blocks, transmissions, cases, housings, suspensions, chassis components, and body paneling for automotive companies in the region.

The blockade is so concerning that top banking and government officials closely monitor the situation.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem warned the extended closure of the bridge is very distressing and could impact the economy. Around $511 billion in goods are traded annually between Canada and the United States via roads and bridges.

There’s no timetable on when the disruption will abate. The bridge was forced to close on Monday after truckers protesting against the Canadian vaccine mandate blocked the bridge. On Friday morning, traffic volumes (cars and trucks) remain muted.

Inflows Into The U.S. (as of 0730 ET)

Inflows Into Canada (as of 0730 ET)

Windsor residents told the Epoch Times that they would continue their blockade of the bridge. Average citizens, not just truckers, are showing up in force to protest the government’s medical tyranny.

“We just want our freedom, we want nothing else. … That’s your God-given rights. That’s your health choice. … Enough is enough,” said Windsor resident Sue Samir who lost her job and livelihood because didn’t want to get a second COVID-19 injection after experiencing adverse reactions to the first.

Fellow protester and Windsor resident Sami Mandalawi said demonstrators would hold the line in their peaceful protest until they get arrested.

“I’m here because I cherish our Charter of human rights and freedoms in Canada, and I want to protect those freedoms.
“We need to stand up for what’s right, and we will do what is required, provided that it is peaceful, with a capital P. We are perfectly prepared to leave in handcuffs and without a finger lifted in aggression towards our police officer, whom we love and who tragically are being put in between a rock and a very hard place,” Mandalawi said.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has requested Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to use federal powers to unblock the bridge and other emerging protests.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg urged their Canadian counterparts “to use federal powers to resolve this situation at our joint border and offering the full support of our Homeland Security and Transportation departments,” according to a White House official who spoke to CNN on Thursday.

President Biden closely monitors the situation and is “being regularly briefed” on the matter.

Automakers and their suppliers are America’s largest manufacturing sector, responsible for 3% of total GDP. The industry as a whole employs 2.5 million workers. Any disruption to the industry, like what is emerging on the northern border, could have economic impacts on the U.S. and Canada in future quarters.

a must view…

Coronavirus can destroy the placenta and lead to stillbirths | AP News

Inbox

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-health-2ac91326c0cd16f67eba01885516ef2dend

a must view…

Tucker tonight

Inbox

end

another important view

Senator Rand Paul on current situation

Inbox

GLOBAL ISSUES/INFLATION

end

a must view… from Canada

Message to Truckers from Dr. Christian

Inbox

https://rumble.com/vum5wt-10-feb-2022-dr.-christians-message-to-our-magnificent-truckers.html

GLOBAL ISSUES//MASKS

Shullenberger states quite clearly that the use of masks was a waste of time

(Shullenberger)

Were Masks A Waste Of Time?

FRIDAY, FEB 11, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Geoff Shullenberger via UnHerd.com,

Experts advocated an intervention they once thought useless…

Last summer, as the Delta wave was upending hopes that widespread vaccination would end the pandemic, several Democratic-run cities and states in America reintroduced the mask mandates they had ditched earlier in the year. A few other blue states and cities, notably New York, as well as many Republican-led states and municipalities, opted not to require masking again at that point.

This policy divergence created an opportunity to examine the impact of mask mandates.

Those areas that rescinded their mandates could function as control groups for evaluating the effect of the policy on cases and mortality.

But neither public health experts nor any of the major media outlets took up this opportunity.

The reason, most of them would likely have said if pressed on the subject, was there was nothing to learn: “the science” was settled.

For their part, critics of masking and other Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) typically relied on principled assertions of freedom. This gave them little reason to examine the evidentiary basis of these policies, since they would have rejected them on moral grounds even if they worked. Only a few sceptical observers drilled into the data that could be found on sites such as the New York Times — even if the paper’s own reporters made little of it. The most prolific of these was Ian Miller, who over the past two years has published copious data-driven commentary on the track record of various Covid public health interventions.

Miller arrives time and again at the same conclusion: that the ad hoc pandemic mitigation policies rolled out since 2020 have systematically failed to achieve goals. Miller has now compiled one subset of his graphs and commentaries into a book titled Unmasked: The Global Failure of Covid Mask Mandates which focuses solely on the most ubiquitous pandemic containment strategy deployed by governments worldwide: masks.

The endorsement of masking by medical bodies and public health authorities worldwide, Miller shows, entailed the abandonment of a longstanding view that masks were a useless and even harmful intervention. Over the previous decades, numerous randomised controlled trials had assessed the efficacy of masks in controlling the spread of respiratory viruses like influenza, and pandemic simulations had evaluated their potential.

A document published by the World Health Organisation in 2019 framed the results of these studies in no uncertain terms:

“there was no evidence that face masks are effective in reducing transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza”.

It’s unsurprising, then, that when the CDC briefed reporters on the pandemic in February of 2020, masking was not even mentioned among the NPIs that might be deployed.

The UK government, too, stated early in 2020 that there was no evidence to support masking.

After the CDC and other agencies revised their guidance in April 2020, Dr. Anthony Fauci, by then a staunch advocate of masks, claimed that he and other officials had discouraged the public from obtaining masks to ensure there were adequate supplies for health care workers. Ever since, promoters of masking have cited Fauci’s “noble lie” to account for the abrupt reversal of prior guidance.

But as Miller notes, it was not just during the early months of the pandemic that officials said masks were ineffective. They had said so for years, and Fauci had advised against masks not just in public statements but in private emails in early 2020.

In light of the earlier consensus, Miller’s findings in Unmasked should not be surprising. As we might have predicted based on a plethora of trials and meta-analyses published prior to the pandemic, mask mandates have had little to no demonstrable impact on curbing the spread of the virus. Miller reaches this conclusion by comparing areas with mask mandates of longer and shorter duration with each other and with areas that never imposed mandates at all. The results, he shows, simply do not support the standard adage that “masks save lives”.

For example, Los Angeles County, the most populous county in the US, imposed one of the earliest mask mandates in the United States, just after the CDC released its new guidance in early April 2020. By May, the county was requiring masks outdoors as well as indoors and enjoying 96-97% compliance. (It also imposed an array of other strict mitigation measures.) But it had case and mortality rates well above the national average throughout 2020 and 2021. LA currently ranks 3rd among California counties in its Covid death rate, faring worse than numerous counties with mask mandates of shorter duration and lower levels of compliance.

It’s possible to quibble with Miller’s methodology. As he readily acknowledges, we don’t know precisely how LA and other heavily masked areas would have fared against Covid in the absence of mandates, and the fact that mask mandates have tended to be deployed alongside social distancing and other NPIs muddies the water. Miller’s comparisons of LA’s outcomes with those of neighbouring Orange County, which has had no mask mandate since last year but has had lower case and death rates, seem rather conclusive, but a sceptic might note confounding variables such as demographic differences, population density, and so on.

Such criticisms would be more damaging to Miller’s case if the officials and experts who have embraced mask mandates were more modest in their own assertions. Not only did they jettison years of prior research pointing to the minimal efficacy of masking, they also made empirically indefensible claims that masks alone could end the pandemic.

For instance, Miller compiles the astonishing claims made by Dr. Robert Redfield, who directed the CDC until just a year ago. In September 2020, Redfield described masks as “the most powerful public health tool we have”, claimed they offered “more Covid protection than vaccines would”, and stated: “If we [wore masks] for 6, 8, 10, 12 weeks, we’d bring this pandemic under control.” While they may not rule out some small effects of masking, Miller’s charts expose claims such as Redfield’s as delusional propaganda.

Likewise, those sceptical of what Miller’s comparative graphs can teach us should be even more suspicious of the shoddy studies published by the CDC over the past two years. For example, one study claimed to show a decline in Covid cases in certain Arizona counties as a result of mask mandates. But it failed to note that cases declined at a similar rate over the same period in Arizona counties without a mandate. In the months following the completion of the study, moreover, cases rose well above prior levels in counties with mandates still in place. Such studies produced a mirage of success by limiting the period of study, conflating correlation and causation, and avoiding comparisons with non-mandate counties.

The most disastrous failing of the experts has been their lack of curiosity about the actual results of the policies they have staked their reputations on. Mask mandates have been, in Miller’s phrase, “a population-wide experiment”, but few within the US scientific and medical establishment have seemed interested in parsing the resulting data, leaving that task to outsiders like Miller. Astonishingly, there have been just two randomised controlled trials on masking published since the pandemic began. One found no significant effect at all, while the other found a small effect of 11% for surgical masks and no significant effect for cloth ones. The first was largely ignored or dismissed, while the second was optimistically glossed as proving that masks work.

Moreover, even the most bullish case for the technical efficacy of at least some higher-quality masks does not constitute a case for mask mandates, a distinction that most commentary elides. The only way to measure the efficacy of mandates is to look at their actual track record. This is what Miller has done, and the result, he argues, is clear: “mask mandates have demonstrated very little impact, if any, on case curves throughout the United States and in many other international locations.”

Miller is justifiably derisive about the experts who have oversold dubious policies at every turn, but the ironic implication of his book is that much of the expert guidance from prior to 2020 has been vindicated. Before Covid appeared, scientists and officials advised time and again that masks would be ineffective at containing a pandemic respiratory virus, and the evidence Miller has compiled suggests they were correct.

Two years into the pandemic, the experts are now the last to acknowledge the accuracy of their earlier predictions. This raises the question of why they changed course and sacrificed their own credibility in the process. Miller confines himself to the data, and if there’s a limitation to his book, it’s that he does not offer any compelling explanation of why the expert class threw itself a policy it once regarded as worse than useless.

It is not difficult to see why mask mandates proved irresistible to politicians. Masks are the perfect form of hygiene theatre, conveying an intuitive sense of safety regardless of demonstrable efficacy at scale. They also offload responsibility for controlling the pandemic to ordinary people. The overcrowding of ICUs can be blamed on the bad behavior of “anti-maskers”, rather than on the allocation of resources by governments and hospital CEOs. When cases and deaths spike, it is the fault of the citizenry, not the leadership.

The scientific and medical establishment’s uncritical support of masks and other dubious policies is just the latest manifestation of its lack of independence from political imperatives. After several years of finding themselves at the receiving end of rhetorical assaults from rising Right-wing populists, the experts seized on the pandemic as an opportunity to reassert their own status and authority — and that of the liberal-technocratic politicians with whom they are largely aligned.

In the long run, however, the temporary political advantages they gained from this will be outweighed by the discrediting effect of their embrace of censorship, propaganda, and rule by decree. Making us all put masks on was the expert class’s mask-off moment — and what we can see now isn’t pretty.

END

VACCINE IMPACT

Who You Allow to Define “Sickness” Determines if You Live in Slavery, or Freedom

February 10, 2022 6:01 pm

In the mornings I listen to a “Christian Radio” station that plays uplifting and encouraging music to start my day. I listen for the music, but invariably these “Christian” radio stations feel the need to also feature speakers, usually “pastors,” who share short little stories or messages played between songs that are supposed to represent Biblical teaching. Yesterday, the following story was shared on this particular station (I could not find this story in written format anywhere, so I am recalling this from memory and it may not be 100% accurate.). “A young mother was recently diagnosed with advanced cancer. Her doctors gave her two choices. One, she could go to a place like Acapulco and live out her remaining few days in comfortable surroundings. Or alternatively, she could undergo chemotherapy which would extend her life by about 5 years, but she would live in constant agony and suffering during those 5 years from the effects of chemotherapy. The young mother made the tough decision to go through with chemotherapy so she could extend her life by 5 years, because she said that she wanted to spend as much time as possible with her children, so that if they needed her, she would be there for them.” The reason that this story was broadcast on a Christian radio show, is obviously because in Christianity today, choosing to make sacrifices for the sake of your family is considered very noble, and because Christians have a very high regard of the medical system, and doctors, whom Christians are taught are to be obeyed. Her choice was obviously being broadcast to communicate that she chose the most moral, and noble option available to her, the “Christian” thing to do. Well I am here today to tell you that she made the wrong choice, and that her choice was neither moral, nor noble. First of all, given only those two options, the better choice would probably have been to pack up the whole family, put life on hold for a while, and head to a beautiful place like Acapulco in Mexico with warm, sunny days by the ocean. Being in such a relaxing and restful atmosphere with her loved ones might have literally cured her cancer without pharmaceutical products. But most of all, her choice was the wrong one because she chose to obey her doctors, and accept their diagnosis of her alleged “sickness” and their prescribed treatments, which only provided two options, as if there were no others available. Who is missing in this story? God. Did God diagnose this young mother as “sick” according to how the Bible defines “sickness”? Were her options really only the two options her doctors gave to her? How you view the definition of “sickness” and who you view as the authority in diagnosing someone as “sick,” determines if you are living a life of slavery to medical “authorities,” or you are living a life of freedom, where “sickness” has no power over you, because you do not fear it.

Trucker Freedom Convoy Now up Against Both Canadian and U.S. Government as They Try to Seize Funds on New Platform

February 10, 2022 8:14 pm

The Canadian Trucker Freedom Convoy continues on as the largest border between the U.S. and Canada remains closed, and the Biden Administration is reported to be getting involved now with Homeland Security, as hundreds of millions of dollars are reportedly being lost every day while the Ambassador Bridge remains closed.

Michael Every

on the major topics of the day

Michael Every…

Rabobank: The Only Question Is When, And How Large The Fed’s Policy Error Will Be

FRIDAY, FEB 11, 2022 – 10:24 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

A dialogue between the mute and the deaf

Yes, I am going to talk about inflation and the Fed. But let’s start with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, who described his ice-cold meeting with his UK counterpart Liz Truss as “a dialogue between the mute and the deaf”. He may have meant “…and the daft”, because when he asked her if she supported Russian sovereignty over Rostov and Voronezh, she replied the UK would never do so – both have always been parts of Russia, as the ambassador had to point out. It was a deliberate Lavrov trick that did not change the undiplomatic dynamic. Nor the military one.

Russia is still placing more forces just kilometres and minutes from the Ukrainian border; building field hospitals (for all the injuries peaceful exercises produce); making Ukraine’s Black Sea ports impossible to use (technically a breach of UNGA Resolution 3314 and an act of war?); removing all but essential workers from its Kyiv embassy; claiming the Kremlin “sees signs of a possible offensive by the Ukrainian army” in Russian-held Donbas; reportedly, allowing the Duma to consider an appeal to President Putin to recognize Ukraine’s breakaway republics as Russian territory on 15 February; and Belarus is issuing emergency conscription notices. None of this looks like the “no further escalation” President Macron was waving around earlier his week.

Macron was meanwhile busy agreeing to sell 42 Rafale fighter jets and new submarines to Indonesia, reflecting tensions in that region, as well as pledging to build 14 new nuclear reactors by 2035 at home, showing huge EU tensions between those closing down nuclear power in the face of an energy crisis and those seeing it as a way out of one. That is also a dialogue between the mute and the deaf, it seems – as is so much else around us.

On which, back to that US inflation print: the price of *many* things is soaring – except market rumours of downside inflation surprises, which should be heavily discounted. Headline CPI at 0.6% m/m was two ticks above consensus and, for those who obsess, a hair away from being 0.7%. In y/y terms it was 7.5%, a 40-year high. Meanwhile, CPI ex-food and energy was 0.6% m/m, a tick higher than consensus, and it has been stuck at 0.5 – 0.6% m/m for months now. That was equal to 6.0% y/y: and even excluding shelter it was 7.2% y/y.

How many Keynesian economic thinkers were deaf or mute about the logic that injecting stimulus into a US economy not structurally able to supply goods to match new demand would cause inflation? Yes, there was the belief the US could import more, as usual: except the rest of the world is in the same supply-constrained boat! Senator Manchin again pointed out the inflationary effects of the multi-trillion Build Back Better bill, which now appears completely dead.

How many people in the MMT crowd failed to see this too? Said crowd are now arguing despite inflation/expectations soaring, now is not the time to raise taxes, which is the one thing they argue one should do in response. They are right in that it is supply-side – but are showing they have as little idea about what to do when faced with real-world inflation. I can summarize the whole MMT argument here: Yes, it works –which will infuriate many of you– but only if you have spare domestic supply and/or a trade surplus to firewall your currency – which will infuriate those advocating it who don’t want to recognize that this makes it a zero-sum geopolitical issue.

How many neoliberals are reading the reports on US supply-chains on prospect.org? These summarize how ocean carriers, railroads, warehouses, and industry after industry have come to be dominated by cartels, oligopolies, monopolies, and monopsonies making for both a lack of competition and a logistics system with a non-linear dynamic of emergent, cascading single-points of failure. “Too Big to Sail”, as I have dubbed this neoliberal equivalent to the pre-2008 banking system. The current trucking protests in Canada, which may be about to spread to the US, further underline systemic vulnerabilities. A former Obama White House DHS member argues: “The Ambassador Bridge link constitutes 28% of annual trade movement between the US and Canada. Slash the tires, empty gas tanks, arrest the drivers, and move the trucks.” Yet how can one move blockading trucks if they have slashed tires, no gas, and no drivers? Canadian tow-truck drivers have already refused to tow away problematic trucks out of sympathy: and does anyone recall the UK fuel blockades of autumn 2000? Yet this backdrop also confuses those pro-MMT given the following Twitter meme: ‘Socialists – “Workers should seize control of the economy!”; Truckers – “OK.”; Socialists – “No, not like that!!”’

How many Keynesians, MMT-ers, or neoliberals read ‘The Global Financial Resource Curse’ (Benigno, Fornaro, and Wolf), which argues: “Since the late 1990s, the US has received large capital flows from developing countries –a phenomenon known as the global saving glut– and experienced a productivity growth slowdown. Motivated by these facts, we provide a model connecting international financial integration and global productivity growth. The key feature is that the tradable sector is the engine of growth of the economy. Capital flows from developing countries to the US boost demand for US non-tradable goods, inducing a reallocation of US economic activity from the tradable sector to the non-tradable one. In turn, lower profits in the tradable sector lead firms to cut back investment in innovation. Since innovation in the US determines the evolution of the world technological frontier, the result is a drop in global productivity growth. This effect, which we dub the global financial resource curse, can help explain why the global saving glut has been accompanied by subdued investment and growth, in spite of low global interest rates.”

In short, free movement of capital and of goods into the US destroys global productivity. We already see evidence that free movement of people, if low wage workers, can do the same. So what shred of the globalised neoliberal model do we have left? Yet Keynesian stimulus in a supply-constrained world cannot work either – and China may be throwing debt at the economy again based on total social financing data showing around $1 trillion in new borrowing in just one month: coal and metals think so. Moreover, MMT can’t work unless the economy has spare capacity and you make things at home, or at least the central bank finances the rebuilding of supply chains, not consumer demand: so, you can have MMT socialism – just nationally. (And that’s a worrying taxonomy if you reverse the adjectives.) So, what’s a central bank to do?

The market clearly expects the Fed to make a policy error, with the odds of a 50bp hike in March over 50%, hikes at every meeting this year expected, the US 7s-10s curve having inverted, 5s-10s just 10bp away from inversion, 2s-10s now below 50bp, and rate *cuts* being priced in for 2023 and 2024 before any move is even made.

Indeed, with the Fed’s Bullard calling for 100bp of hikes by July, and rumors of an emergency intra-meeting Fed rate hike(!), which I believe would be the first since Volcker’s ‘Saturday Night Massacre’ in October 1979, when rates moved from 11% to 12%, the only question is how long until we get that policy error, and how large it will be.

The bigger question to my mind is “So, what next?” Just don’t expect any intelligent answers to emerge rapidly. Because fundamentally we have an economic –and geopolitical– dialogue between the mute and the deaf and the daft.

Happy Friday.

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

AUSTRALIA

END

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1404 DOWN .0007 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED

USA/ YEN 115.93 DOWN 0.121 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3578 UP 0.0030

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 22.96 PTS OR 0.66%

Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 17,69 PTS OR 0.07%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.05% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 17,69 PTS OR 0.07%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.96 PTS OR 0.66%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.05%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED HOLIDAY

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1830.40

silver:$22.98-

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 95.74 UP 9 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.17% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.230% up 0 AND 0/10 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.19%// UP 1 in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.96 UP 4 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 77 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.299% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.66% AND NOW ABOVE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1403 DOWN .0008 or 8 basis points

USA/Japan: 115.91 DOWN 0.139 OR YEN UP 14 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3598 UP 50 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP 55 pts to 1.2678

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED )..UP 6.3546

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3596

TURKISH LIRA: 13.49 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.230

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.047% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.348 UP 75in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.75 UP 19 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 11.38 PTS OR 0.15%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 65.32 points or 0.42%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 89.95PTS OR 1.27%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 88.10PTS OR 0.99%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 224.10 PTS OR 0.82%

WTI Oil price 91.51 12: EST

Brent Oil: 92.91 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE FALLS: 76.08 THE CROSS HIGHER BY 105 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 105 BASIS PTS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.299

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1337 DOWN .0074 OR 74 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3546 DOWN .0003 or 3 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 115.20 DOWN .85-

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2745 UP .0012 (cdn dollar DOWN 12 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 93.34

Brent: 94.75

USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.927 DOWN 11 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.244 DOWN 6 pts

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 503.53 PTS OR 1.43%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 451.80 OR 3.07%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 27.67 UP 3.76 PTS (UP 15.73.%

GLD/NYSE CLOSING PRICE $173.81 UP $3.25 OR 1.91%

SLV/NYSE CLOSING PRICE: $21.82// UP $.40 OR 1.87%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Markets Turmoil Amid ‘Russia Invades’ Reports & Bullard’s Bond Bloodbath

FRIDAY, FEB 11, 2022 – 04:01 PM

A sudden slap to the face seemed to shock investors from their multi-month stupor, waking to the reality that The Fed is serious this time about raising rates and withdrawing liquidity. That realization, considering US equity valuations have never been higher (combined with a collapse in US consumer confidence) have many wondering just where (or if) these two lines will ever converge…

Source: Bloomberg

The awakening sent rate-hike odds soaring this week. Even with today’s attempt to walk back Jim Bullard’s hawkishness, the market is now pricing in a 60% chance of 7 rate-hikes this year, a 70% chance of a 50bps hike in March, and even a 25% chance that The Fed will surprise with an inter-meeting hike before March (note that there is an unscheduled Fed meeting on Monday)…

Source: Bloomberg

But around lunchtime today, a series of reports of an imminent Russian invasion sparked turmoil in all markets.

The Russia headlines sent rate-hike expectations lower for March…

Source: Bloomberg

And between Russian headlines and an unrevised POMO schedule, the odds of an inter-meeting hike were erased…

Source: Bloomberg

First there was this…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1492203846898176003&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fmarkets-turmoil-amid-russia-invades-reports-bullard-bombshell&sessionId=b64aa6c2b0909301c033abbb442e458f4544b48d&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=0a8eea3%3A1643743420422&width=550px

Then this…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1492217231542939651&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fmarkets-turmoil-amid-russia-invades-reports-bullard-bombshell&sessionId=b64aa6c2b0909301c033abbb442e458f4544b48d&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=0a8eea3%3A1643743420422&width=550px

And then this…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1492240284767326209&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fmarkets-turmoil-amid-russia-invades-reports-bullard-bombshell&sessionId=b64aa6c2b0909301c033abbb442e458f4544b48d&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=0a8eea3%3A1643743420422&width=550px

The upswsing of all this… US Treasury markets just suffered their worst start to a year ever…

With a massive bear flattening in the curve, Treasury yields soared this week as the short-end exploded 27bps – most since Volcker (on a sigma basis) – and the long-end suffered too (30Y +12bps). But then ‘Russia Invades’ reports sent yields plunging (but still up on the week) with 30Y ending up only 4.5bps (while the short-end was still a shitshow)…

Source: Bloomberg

For context, the 10Y yield was clubbed like a baby seal yesterday, with yields up 15bps… and then some repeated rumors of Russia’s imminent invasion sends yields back down 13bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The forward curve is forecasting an imminent recession (1Y fwd 2s30s is now inverted)…

Source: Bloomberg

And the swaps market is now pricing for a rate-cut at some point next year – i.e. Fed policy error…

Source: Bloomberg

If Dr.Copper (relative to Gold) is right, then 10Y yields have around 100bps further to go at least…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit markets are very much starting to crack with HY spreads at their widest in 14 months…

Source: Bloomberg

And equity risk expectations are starting to catch up to credit risk expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks were volatile today, with a big puke today as Russia Invasion warning headlines dropped and were taken seriously this time… Everything closed red today with Nasdaq the biggest loser, all closing near their lows…

The week was a game of two halves with an incessant bid into Thursday’s CPI print, then a pukfest after Bullard’s hawkish comments, some dip-buying, then Russia headlines hammered markets to the lows. Small Caps managed to hold on to gains on the week as Nasdaq plunged 3% followed by decent drops for the S&P and Dow…

All the majors puked back below their 200DMAs…

Energy and materials stocks ended the week higher while tech and rate-sensitive Utes were pummeled…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX spiked back above 30 intraday…

The dollar ended the week marginally higher after two days of chaos in the world’s reserve currency…

Source: Bloomberg

The Ruble was routed today – its biggest daily drop against the USD since 3/18/20…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were mixed this week with Ethereum tumbling back to unchanged on the week, Ripple outperforming and Bitcoin managing modest gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin rallied up near $46k after Bullard’s comments and tumbled back down near $42k today after the Russian headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold surged above $1860 on the Russia headlines, the highest price for the precious metal since before Thanksgiving…

Oil prices exploded higher on the Russia headlines with WTI topping $94.50 for the first time since Sept 2014…

Finally, it is worth considering the fact that globally, central bankers are facing their nemesis – stagflation. As growth expectations slow, so inflation expectations continue to rise dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

Central bankers are going to need something to blame when they blow up the world.

Oh and there’s this…

…aaaaaand it’s gone!

I) /AFTERNOON TRADING/

Oil Soars; Ruble, Stocks Tumbles On Report “US Believes” Putin Will Launch “Horrific, Bloody ” Invasion Of Ukraine Next Week

FRIDAY, FEB 11, 2022 – 01:45 PM

When it comes to the geopolitical hot spot du jour, every day is Groundhog Dog with a random daily leak out of the deep state through its preferred mainstream media mouthpieces that a Russian invasion on Ukraine is imminent any second now even if there is zero evidence confirming this, and even if one never actually takes place, and today was no different…

… only today the deep state has been especially persistent and moment ago PBS reported that according to three (deep state) officials, “the U.S. believes Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and communicated those plans to the Russian military,” with two admin officials saying they “expect the invasion to begin next week—echoing what Secretary of State Blinken has said.”

And just so Americans can focus on anything but Biden’s catastrophic tenure, the PBS is throwing the kitchen sink noting that defense officials anticipate a “horrific, bloody campaign that begins with two days of bombardment and electronic warfare, followed by an invasion, with the possible goal of regime change.” The North Atlantic Council – which as everyone knows is the hub of the deep state – was reportedly briefed on this new intel today, which means that a false flag attack by the CIA is now imminent.

The PBS hyperbole followed an earlier report from that hotbed of deep state lies, CNN, according to which the US and allies had “new intel” that suggests Russia could be planning to attack Ukraine prior to end of Olympics, contrary to previous assessments, with CNN adding that the “new intel comes as officials have dramatically ramped up the urgency of public warnings related to Ukraine in past 24 hours” and that Kyiv is among the targets identified in the Russian planning sources.

CNN also added that “the admin could declassify some of this intel today” although we doubt it since this intel does not exist, but hey – someone has to wag the dog. The report has also come amid announcements from the UK US & Europe that they are recommending staff leave Ukraine.

Bottom line, while this is just the latest in a laughable series of report originating from the US deep state which have little if any linkage to reality, the fact that the US is now committed to a strategy that sees Russia “invade” even if it means responding to a US-orchestrated false flag is why oil has just exploded higher, with WTI soaring above $94 and Brent above $95 for the first time since 2014…

… the Ruble tumbling…

… alongside risk assets, including bitcoin…

… with only gold higher alongside oil…

… as Biden now has two scapegoats to explain away the ongoing economic disaster: blame Putin for the explosion in gasoline prices and blame the Canadian truckers for the imminent US recession.

END

II) USA DATA

UMich Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Crashes To 11-Year Lows, Democrat Confidence Dumps

FRIDAY, FEB 11, 2022 – 10:11 AM

After January’s surprisingly bad decline to fresh decade lows, analysts expect University of Michigan’s Sentiment Survey to show further modest weakness in preliminary February data. They were right in direction but the magnitude is way off – UMich headline sentiment crashed from 67.2 to 61.7 (against 67.0 expectations). Both Current Conditions (from 72.0 to 68.5) and Expectations plunged (from 64.1 to 57.4), even though both were expected to show modest rebounds…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the lowest print for all indices since 2011.

Politically, sentiment among Democrats and Independents plunged further while Republican confidence rose. Poor government economic policies were cited by 51% of respondents, the highest share since 2014.

Source: Bloomberg

Buying attitudes for vehicles and homes deteriorated in February…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps most notably, the all-important inflation expectations rose once again with Americans expecting 5% inflation over the next 12 months – the most since 2008…

Source: Bloomberg

The survey notes that the entire decline was in households with incomes of 100K or more. That suggests the fall in the stock market was a major driver of the decline.

Bad financial times over the next five years were anticipated by nearly two-thirds of all consumers, representing the weakest long-term outlook in the past decade, according to the university’s report.

IIb) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATE STORIES

This is good: Rep. Roy of Texas introduces a bill to reinstate troops discharged for refusing COVID 19 vaccine

(Van Brugen/EpochTimes)

Rep. Roy Introduces Bill To Reinstate Troops Discharged For Refusing COVID-19 Vaccine

THURSDAY, FEB 10, 2022 – 08:20 PM

Authored by Isabel van Brugen via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A group of Republican lawmakers led by Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) unveiled a bill on Feb. 8 that would reinstate troops fired for not complying with the military’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

The Service Restoration Act (pdf) would “ensure that American servicemen and women in uniform are not fired for refusing to take the COVID-19 vaccine and that those already fired can return to military service,” a release from the Republican’s office said.

Roy’s office noted that hundreds of “battle-ready service members” have been separated from the Armed Forces as a result of the mandate, which was announced by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in August 2021.

“Worse, the Department of Defense (DOD) has denied many medical and religious exemptions, which has resulted in forcing service members to choose either their faith or livelihoods,” it said.

The bill would prohibit federal funds from being used to require a member of the Armed Forces to receive the COVID-19 vaccine and would require Austin to reinstate members of the Armed Forces who wish to return to duty at the same rank.

It would also ensure that Austin counts the service members’ time separated from the military toward their retirement benefits, and expunge from the service members’ record any adverse action due to refusing to take the COVID-19 vaccine.

Co-sponsors to the bill include Reps. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-Ga.), Michael Cloud (R-Texas), Louie Gohmert (R-Texas), Van Taylor (R-Texas), Bill Posey (R-Fla.), Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), and Bob Good (R-Va.).

“Because of President [Joe] Biden’s power-hungry, anti-science COVID-19 vaccine mandate, hundreds of valuable American service members are being forced out of our military, taking with them years of subject-matter expertise, careers of selfless sacrifice, and lifelong dreams of military service. This is strategically foolish, profoundly unamerican, and completely unacceptable,”Roy said in a statement on the legislation.

The lawmaker added, “I introduced the Service Restoration Act to ensure that the brave men and women of our armed forces are not fired over this wrong-headed mandate—whether it be for a medical, religious, conscientious or any reason—and that those already dismissed are able to get back to honorably serving their country with their time of service and their records rightfully restored.”

The measure came as the Air Force on Tuesday became the second U.S. military branch to approve religious exemptions to the mandatory COVID-19 vaccine, although the nine approved so far represent just a fraction of the more than 6,400 requested by Air Force troops.

The Marine Corps is the only other military service to grant any religious accommodations, allowing three so far. On Jan. 13, it granted religious exemptions to the military’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate, nearly two months after the vaccination deadline for active-duty Marines.

The Army and Navy have not approved any religious exemptions. As of Jan. 26, the Army had rejected 266 requests for permanent religious exemptions.

The Navy in its latest release on Feb. 2 noted that there have been 118 “separations” so far for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine. Court documents dated Feb. 3 note out of 4,095 total initial requests, the Navy has denied 3,278 and 285 are under review.

As of Feb. 3, a total of 3,458 requests for religious accommodation out of 3,539 initial requests have been rejected by the U.S. Marine Corps, while 81 requests are pending review, court papers show.

The U.S. Coast Guard has denied 578 of 1,308 initial requests for religious exemption from the vaccine mandate, and 715 requests are under review.

The military services have come under criticism for their failure to grant religious exemptions, with members of Congress, the military, and the public questioning if the review processes have been fair. Altogether, the services have received more than 14,000 requests for religious exemptions.

Austin and military leaders have argued that the vaccine is critical to maintaining military readiness and the health of the force. And all of the services have now either discharged personnel for refusing the vaccine or put a system in place to do so.

Zachary Stieber contributed to this report.

END

Doorknobs!!

Amazon Bars Unvaccinated Workers From Receiving Paid COVID Medical Leave

FRIDAY, FEB 11, 2022 – 03:04 PM

Amazon has decreed that any of its warehouse workers who refuse to accept the vaccine will also forfeit the right to paid time off should they ever be infected with the virus – even though being vaccinated has little impact on the transmission of the virus, as the omicron wave clearly demonstrated to millions of American workers.

The e-commerce giant has decided to allow workers in its “fulfillment centers” to finally go mask-less inside its giant warehouses, which by all accounts are stuffy, hostile work environments – but only as long as they are vaccinated. The company is changing its policy in response to the governors of at least 12 states lifting their own respective masking requirements.

Amazon’s policy change was first reported by WSJ:

“There has been a sharp decline in Covid-19 cases across the country over the past weeks. Along with increasing vaccination rates across the country, this is a positive sign we can return to the path to normal operations,” Amazon’s memo says.

Amazon employs about a million workers in the US, most at its hundreds of warehouses throughout the country. Some US companies have required all workers and guests at their facilities to get a COVID jab, including tech giants such as Microsoft and Facebook parent Meta Platforms. Amazon hasn’t mandated that its workers get vaccinated, though it has offered incentives for them to do so, such as bonuses.

Even WSJ acknowledged that the company’s new policies surrounding vaccination and paid medical “has moved closer to an outright vaccine mandate” as the company navigates “disruptions” to its delivery operations.

Amazon has so far required employees to wear masks, practice social distancing, and undergo temperature checks as part of its effort to stop the spread of COVID. But even as omicron spread widely across the country last month, Amazon shortened its paid time off policies for both vaccinated and unvaccinated employees to just one week. Prior to the change, employees were given 10 days of paid time off – and before that, they were given two weeks.

The changes coincided with a labor crunch last year that fortunately for Amazon didn’t intensify until after its peak holiday season had ended.

iii) USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//

iii) USA economic stories

Unbelievable story!

(Varney/RealClearInvestigations)

The Mystery Of The Migrant Kids The Feds Are Spiriting Into The U.S. Interior

THURSDAY, FEB 10, 2022 – 11:00 PM

Authored by James Varney via RealClearInvestigations (emphasis ours),

After months of delay, the Department of Homeland Security replied late last month to a Congressional demand for information about the number of illegal migrants the department has flown from border towns to communities around the country. In 2021, it said, 71,617 were dropped off in nearly 20 cities including locales as far from the Mexican border as Atlanta, Chicago, New York and Philadelphia.

Immigration experts critical of the Biden administration’s permissive immigration policies believe those numbers are incomplete, especially regarding the most vulnerable migrants, those under 18, whom DHS classifies as “unaccompanied children.” The agency says some 40,000 of the total transported are such minors, but that number is only a fraction of the 147,000 “encounters” the agency reports having with unaccompanied migrant children at the southern border between January and October 2021.

Paramount among the questions raised by the transports is what happens to the unaccompanied children once they leave the airport? The major cities DHS lists, the experts say, are probably simply way stations rather than final destinations.

“Everyone wants to know where they’re going, but nobody knows,” said Todd Bensman, a national security fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington-based think tank. “Well, somebody knows,” he adds. “The government knows. But they are being as opaque and ‘darkened-windows’ as they can be about the entire matter.”

The lack of information raises a host of questions regarding the health and welfare of the children, and more:

What security checks are being performed — and background checks to ensure these minors are going to safe homes? How can checks be conducted on family members in the U.S. illegally who wind up taking custody of the children (a problem highlighted in a 2019 study)?
What processes are in place to ensure that these children have enough to eat, are receiving any necessary medical care, or are enrolled in school?
What traumas or crimes have they suffered along the way, at the hands of human traffickers, for example, and how are the cases being handled? (Through a public records request, Judicial Watch last year obtained a list of 33 incidents of alleged sexual abuse in a one-month period in 2021.)
What pandemic precautions have been taken, beyond masks seen in some furtively taken images of the transportees, by an administration that professes to be aggressively dedicated to eradicating COVID-19? (Illegal immigrants dispersed on commercial flights in 2021 were not tested for covid, and agencies did not follow preventive procedures, according to preliminary findings of a DHS Inspector General’s report reviewed by RealClearInvestigations.)
Who is responsible for making sure the migrants, children in particular, check in with the government and show up for court immigration hearings?

The difficulty of getting answers from the Biden administration is frustrating many state and local officials who say that tracking the thousands of illegal immigrants apparently melting into their communities is a maddening endeavor.

“The Biden administration is running a clandestine, covert, middle-of-the-night, special ops mission using the same tradecraft the military does in operations against foreign enemies,” said Larry Keefe, a senior policy adviser to Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. “We don’t know what’s going on because the states are not designed to mount intelligence-gathering operations against our own government.”

The situation is complicated by the layers of groups involved. After a gumbo of federal agencies – CBP, DHS, DHHS, ICE, ORR – the government largely relies on nonprofit contractors to handle unaccompanied minors. While those groups present a rosy picture on their websites, it is unclear how they can handle what has proved a massive increase.

In 2021, DHS shelters near the border and further inland took in 122,000 unaccompanied children, according to its figures, which shattered the previous record 69,000 in 2019. The unaccompanied children are but a portion of the illegal immigrants who flooded across the southern border in 2021. For the fiscal year ending last October, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported 1.6 million “encounters” — an all-time record and four times the figure the previous year. Although the number of encounters does not equal the number of people who crossed, given that some are repeat offenders, the actual figures are even higher, because CBP does not release the number of “got-aways” it records.

Neither Homeland Security nor Health and Human Services nor the Office of Refugee Resettlement would answer questions about the resettlement process from RealClearInvestigations.

But the huge increase in numbers means the organizations dealing with them are swamped. In many cases, responsibilities for placing unaccompanied children with families or sponsors are subcontracted through the Office of Refugee Resettlement, or ORR. In 2020, the most recent year for which figures were available, under the far more restrictive immigration policies of the Trump administration, taxpayers spent more than $1.5 billion among 42 various non-profit and religious groups that offer help with housing, educational, medical, legal and other services.

More than $1 billion of that 2020 total was paid to six groups. The major recipient, Southwest Key Programs, received $400 million and a global nonprofit called BCFS received at least $253.1 million, according to tracking of ORR contracts by Maya Pagni Barak, a professor of criminology and criminal studies at the University of Michigan-Dearborn.

None of the six groups would answer questions from RealClearInvestigations, instead referring them back to federal agencies in the kind of loop that has bedeviled others seeking information.

“This is all being done under the cover of darkness and no one really knows what is happening,” said Rosemary Jenks, director of government relations at NumbersUSA, a group that favors immigration limits. “Plus, there’s so much confusion over who has custody over which groups.”

The groups handling unaccompanied children have sites scattered across the U.S., according to their websites. Southwest Key, for example, says it runs such shelters in 18 states, while BCFS lists shelters in a dozen states, from California and New York, to Colorado, Illinois, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee and elsewhere. A fact sheet from ICE notes that altogether there are sites for unaccompanied children in 22 states.

Regarding shelter conditions, the operators’ blanket silence beyond rosy website depictions is not a new development. In 2018, when the Trump administration’s border policies were under scrutiny, Southwest Key barred Democratic Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley from inspecting its Casa Padre facility in a former Walmart in Brownsville, Texas. At that time, Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi declared the system “barbaric.”

In an effort to shed some light on the situation in Florida, Gov. DeSantis issued an executive order in September that told state law enforcement and other officials to begin gathering information on the number of illegal immigrants federal agencies were bringing to Florida and where they wind up.

DeSantis took that step after accusing President Biden of abandoning any pretense of protecting the southern border.

In the face of what Keefe and other Florida officials described as continued intransigence on the part of federal agencies flying and busing illegal immigrants into the Sunshine State, DeSantis has proposed a package of laws now pending before the legislature in Tallahassee that would codify the steps laid out in his executive order. The proposed measures would also “prohibit state and local agencies from doing business with any private entities that facilitate the resettlement of illegal aliens in the state of Florida from the southern border.”

Florida’s Department of Children and Families published an emergency rule in December that directly addresses the various non-profits and religious groups that contract with the federal government. The rule “prohibits the issuance or renewal of any license to provide services to UAC who seek to be resettled in Florida,” unless the state and the federal agencies can craft some “cooperative agreement.”

Keefe said the governor’s moves will also put a crimp in human smuggling. Because the children lack documentation to board international flights from Central American airports and others, someone is paying to have them brought from their country of origin to the U.S. border. These are often criminal organizations that are most likely paid by family members – with whom the children may be eventually reunited – or human trafficking syndicates posing as legitimate sponsors that might exploit them for nefarious purposes.

“We don’t have laws in place to investigate the federal government,” Keefe said. “We’re being kept in the dark by our own country on something that’s definitely contributing to human smuggling because this is about bringing their kids here. Somebody drops the kids off at the border and then HHS is handing off to taxpayers the cost of flying them to illegal immigrant parents.”

Pennsylvania lawmakers are facing a similar situation. Keystone state senators remain dissatisfied with answers they have sought on flights packed with immigrants from the southern border that landed in the middle of the night in Scranton and other Pennsylvania airfields.

In December, there were at least two so-called “ghost” flights into the Lehigh Valley, a tiny fraction of the more than 900 such domestic or “lateral” flights ICE’s air arm flew around the U.S. in 2021.

Republican State Sen. Doug Mastriano and others sought answers from Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf and Attorney General Josh Shapiro, both Democrats. While Wolf said Scranton was simply a transit point, he offered no information on passengers that landed in the early morning darkness in Scranton. In a familiar refrain, the state lawmakers were told to direct their questions to the feds.

Mastriano has now filed a series of FOIA requests of DHS and ICE, but he remains perplexed and angered at the reluctance of those involved in the system to provide clear answers.

“On two flights from El Paso to Scranton there were 120 passengers, many of which were minors,” Mastriano said. “Imagine that. I don’t know who pays for their schooling or the impact on our community, and there is something fishy going on with all of it.”

The scant information that has been provided is unlikely to offer a complete picture, Mastriano told RCI.

“I think these findings are just the tip of the iceberg,” he said. “We need to further examine the total number of illegal immigrants being sent [here] by plane and bus. It’s not just minors they are sending to Pennsylvania, its adults, too.”

end

iv)swamp stories

CNN Admits Most Americans Can’t Find One Good Thing About Biden Presidency As Approval Rating Plummets

FRIDAY, FEB 11, 2022 – 01:01 PM

Even CNN is being forced to admit that the majority of Americans are deeply unimpressed with President Biden.

With inflation continuing to soar – the latest numbers released this week have only confirmed that price pressures are spiraling out of control – 6 out of 10 Americans are telling pollsters that there’s literally nothing Biden has done during his presidency that they are happy with. The findings stem from a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS in January and February.

The latest poll numbers confirm that the president’s approval rating has fallen sharply over the past year, which has been marked by ongoing COVID-related restrictions and increasing price pressures (which Democrats memorably scoffed at when they were passing multiple trillion-dollars stimulus packages that economists have widely criticized as overkill).

Just 41% of respondents approved of the way Biden has handled his job while 58% disapproved, a “significant drop” from last January’s CNN polling. Unsurprisingly, dedicated Dems are still standing behind their man: Just 36% of independents and 9% of Republicans approved of Biden, while that number stood at 83% among Democrats. Last year, Biden’s approval among Dems was higher than 90%. Overwhelmingly, respondents said that Biden’s first year in office had been more of a failure than a success.

The omicron wave and the inflation that started to pick up during the second half of last year have done by far the most damage to Biden’s credibility; his approval rating for handling the economy has dipped 8 points to 37% since early December. Meanwhile, his ratings for handling coronavirus have dropped 9 points to 45%.

When it comes to the best way forward for the US, Americans are deeply divided: Nearly three-quarters of Democrats, 73%, said that stopping the spread should remain the highest priority. However, 72% of Republicans and 54% of independents – independents outnumber both registered Republicans and Democrats in the US by a sizable margin – said it was time to learn to live with the virus.

Looking ahead, Americans are overwhelmingly downbeat about the federal government and its ability to adequately represent their interests. The share of Americans who say they felt even somewhat well represented by the federal government remained low at 32%, and only 21% of Americans said they currently had a lot of confidence in Biden’s ability to provide real leadership for the country.

The share who said they had a lot of confidence in the President’s ability to work effectively with Congress has dropped by half since last March, from 32% to 15%, including a 28 percentage point drop among Democrats over that time.

Biden’s approval rating has been declining for some time now after an extremely brief post-election honeymoon. Polls show that President Trump’s favorability rating with the American public is currently higher than Biden’s.

But, to put their approval numbers in a more appropriate context, Trump’s favorability was higher at this point in his presidency (despite the non-stop leaks from the Mueller probe).

That certainly doesn’t bode well for Democrats in Congress ahead of this November’s midterm…

end

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

THURSDAY

China intervened in its stock market on Tuesday; the ECB/France intervened verbally on Wednesday.

Markets May Have Overreacted to ECB, Villeroy Says

French central bank chief addresses lawmakers in Paris
Policy normalization wont’ be tightening: Villeroy

“I wouldn’t deduce from what has happened in recent days that there is an ECB calendar that correspond to an underlying calendar of markets,” Villeroy said at the finance committee of France’s National Assembly. “I think there were perhaps reactions that were very high and too high in recent days.”…
The process would not constitute monetary tightening, to the extent that it would not go beyond a “neutral orientation” of policy, he said…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/markets-may-have-overreacted-to-ecb-villeroy-says

Analysis: ‘Panic’-stricken ECB struggles to regain control of markets
But a costly slip of the tongue at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic – when Lagarde said the ECB was not there to close bond spreads for struggling countries – has led to her facing increased market scrutiny… Sources have told Reuters that a sizable minority of policymakers who take a hawkish stance on inflation wanted to start dialing back stimulus at Thursday’s meeting.
“Lagarde panicked, and shifted to the hawkish side to prevent a return to the Draghi-era of public disagreement (particularly in Germany),” UniCredit’s chief economic advisor Erik F. Nielsen said in a research note… http://reut.rs/3gyfybQ

BBG: European Stocks Rally Amid ECB Reassures, Easing Bond Selloff – France’s central banker said that markets may be getting ahead of themselves in pricing rate hikes for this year…

For the past several years, central bankers have incessantly intervened verbally and mechanically in the markets. Moderate declines in the markets have induced central bankers into action repeatedly. It is extremely revealing and disturbing that central banks and governments feel the need to continually intervene in markets. They obviously have profound fear of something.

Stocks Surge After JPM Hears “Whispers of CPI Below Expectations”…
    BofA’s trading desk which writes that we are approaching the “CPI print tomorrow with a palpable sense of ‘if not terrible, Tech rips.’ Felt like we are pre-trading that notion into it…so that dynamic may have been pulled forward.”…
    JPMorgan’s Head of US Cash Trading, Elan Luger writes that “the CPI print this Thursday is getting more hype than any economic data in recent memory. Though I am still not intermediate or long term bullish on markets (in a nutshell I still think if growth holds up, Fed will keep hiking; good news will be met with a more hawkish Fed and bad news is well… bad news), it does feel to me like the risk/reward is skewed to the upside for CPI…
   With soaring inflation crushing Biden’s approval rating… and with Democrats in desperate need of a hail mary ahead of the midterms to avoid a blowout loss… it is quite likely that tomorrow the BLS will use the nuclear option and revise much if not all of the recent inflationary surge…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-surge-after-jpm-hears-whispers-cpi-below-expectations-heres-how-trade-tomorrows

Given the enormous political stakes in the CPI report and the fact that the January Employment Report was massaged so much that it has little validity, be prepared for an appearance by the ‘magic pencil’.

Here is some evidence that the BLS will craft a benign January CPI:

The BLS:  January CPI weight update: Starting in January 2022, weights for the Consumer Price Index will be calculated based on consumer expenditure data from 2019-2020. The BLS considered interventions but decided to maintain normal procedures. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2021/2022-weight-update.htm

Americans’ spending habits have changed greatly since Covid appeared.  Categories with increased expenditures from 2019-2020, which should show more inflation, will be underweighted.

Team Biden apparently thinks that it can euchre people into believing that CPI tabulated by the state is more benign than what the reality of their checkbook shows.  Will Team Biden and the BLS hold an ice cube on the inflation thermometer to deceive Americans that CPI is cooler than they feel?

The BLS has understated inflation for decades.  It fools Wall Street consistently but not Main Street.

Fed’s Mester wants faster pace of rate hikes than in last tightening cycle in 2015-2018 12:07 p.m. ET
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-mester-wants-faster-pace-of-rate-hikes-than-in-last-tightening-cycle-in-2015-2018-11644426437

More ECB Officials Are Said to Distrust Inflation Forecasts – BBG 12:30 ET
A growing number of European Central Bank policy makers are losing faith in the institution’s current inflation forecasting, emboldening their shirt toward hiking interest rates later this year, according to officials… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-09/more-ecb-officials-distrust-inflation-forecast-amid-hawkish-turn

ECB may need to raise rates in 2022, new Bundesbank chief says (Discord within the ECB)
“If the (inflation) picture remains unchanged in March, I will be in favour of normalising monetary policy,” Nagel told German newspaper Die Zeit. “The first step is to discontinue the net asset purchases over the course of 2022. Then interest rates could be raised before this year is over.”… http://reut.rs/3LnjeLR

@kylamb8: “We have made huge strides in effectively monitoring this virus,” says @CDCDirector
Rochelle Walensky. There you have it. She’s planting the seed for science changing. She’s now discussing Wastewater surveillance as if that’s a new technology. She says they’ll ramp it up… So from the sound of this briefing, they aren’t making any new changes but Walensky is definitely hinting at laying the groundwork. She says they’ll move to the next phase through improved ‘surveillance’ after spending 5 mins talking about all the great ‘new’ techniques they have.  And when I say ‘new’ I am being facetious. They’re definitely not new. She listed a bunch of things they’ve had all along and either don’t discuss publicly or don’t utilize effectively. They’re hoping the public is stupid enough to believe these are newly discovered breakthroughs… Back in 2020, we knew from wastewater surveillance that the virus was actually in Italy by late 2019…

@townhallcom: CDC Director Walensky will not be updating mask guidance today: “We at the CDC will keep the public informed about our guidance and we will clearly communicate those recommendations to the public if and when they are updated.”
    REPORTER: “When it comes to masking, should people be listening to the CDC or listening to their governors?” WALENSKY: “We’ve always said that these decisions are going to have to be made at the local level.“ (Is Walensky gaslighting us?)

@NBSaphierMD: WH Press Briefing: An estimate of 70% eligible adults and 80% eligible seniors have received a Covid booster.

GOP Rep @Jim_Jordan: Glenn Youngkin (Gov VA) campaigned on ending mask mandates and won. And now suddenly, Democrat politicians are dropping their mask mandates too. Science!

Deputy Leader Reform UK Dr David Bull @drdavidbull: Call me cynical but the @10DowningStreet announcement of an end to all COVID19 restrictions at the end of the month happily coincides with the Erdington by-election. This is all political posturing and winning votes.

Former acting CDC director sounds off on consequences of masking children in schools: ‘The costs are real’ – A number of Democratic states have announced they will be ending their indoor mask mandates, despite conflicting CDC guidance
https://www.foxnews.com/media/former-acting-cdc-director-consequences-masking-children-schools-costs-real

End of the road for malicious lockdowns – Our elites are finally waking up to the consequences — or maybe they’re just scared of growing public anger
https://spectatorworld.com/topic/lockdowns-may-have-made-pandemic-worse/

@ggreenwald: Long article from NYT on how blue-state governors and mayors are ending mask mandates and other COVID restrictions solely because political polling shows growing anger. Placing politics about The Science™ was supposed to be the core COVID sin, until….
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/us/politics/new-york-mask-mandate.html

Massachusetts is lifting its statewide school mask mandate effective Feb. 28, Gov. Charlie Baker announces. https://abcn.ws/3gBHkVc

@FaceTheNation: Democratic governors in several states ease mask mandates, though White House is sticking with stricter guidance – California, Delaware, New Jersey, and Connecticut have announced they are rolling back mask mandates.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-governors-lift-mask-mandates/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7b&linkId=151428151

@disclosetv: New York’s statewide mask-or-vaccine mandate for indoor businesses to be lifted tomorrow, Governor Kathy Hochul announces. (But not for school kids – Due to teacher union politics?)

@charliekirk11: I can’t imagine any possible justification for lifting mask mandates for adults but keeping them in place for schoolchildren other than the sadistic cruelty of our “leaders” and the Teachers Unions.

@JonCampbellNY: Hochul (NY Gov) says it is a “very strong possibility” that the state will rescind the school mask mandate on March 7, but she won’t make that final determination until collecting data the first week of March.

@RyanAFournier: An Illinois Judge has barred schools from enforcing mask mandates. He says the mandates are now “Null and Void”.

@BenBradleyTV: Gov. JB Pritzker will announce Wednesday plans to begin lifting Illinois’ indoor mask mandate, according to source. The elimination of masking requirements is expected to occur by March 1.
Notably: Pritzker will continue to fight to keep masking requirements in schools.

@JesseSullivanIL: So, Illinois kids don’t have to wear masks in restaurants, stores, museums or church…but they do in schools.  This isn’t real science – it’s political science.

@thehill: (GOP Sen.) @SenTomCotton: “The science hasn’t changed. What’s changed is that there is an election coming, and Democrats have seen the polling on this question. Now they’re running scared, and they want to pretend they didn’t force your kid to wear a mask for two years.”
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1491472212502720521

‘Hell hath no fury like an angry mom’ — Meet the nation’s new political power
“The people who were supposed to be protecting our kids,” says Burns — she means the teachers’ unions, the school boards, the politicians, the white coats at the American Academy of Pediatrics, the bureaucrats at the CDC and the WHO and the FDA who oversaw the countless lockdowns and advisories — “they all abandoned their responsibility.”… After so many years of endless yammering about conservatives, neoliberals, progressives, alt-righters, the woke, the anti-woke, the only thing they really care about is what works. What is actually happening in the real world. What is being done to their children. And they are willing to vote for whoever can actually bring a return to normal…
https://nypost.com/2022/02/08/meet-nations-new-political-power-a-coalition-of-angry-moms/

FRIDAY

“They Will Not Silence Me”: Doctor Who Discovered Omicron Was Pressured Not To Reveal It’s Mild – The doctor who discovered the Omicron Covid-19 strain, Angelique Coetzee, says that she was pressured by European governments not to reveal that it had mild presentation, according to an interview in Germany’s Welt… “I was told not to state publicly that it was a mild illness…”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/they-will-not-silence-me-doctor-who-discovered-omicron-was-pressured-not-reveal-its-mild

@kirstiealley: Since when did differences in medical & scientific findings constitute such hate filled backlash? We would have thanked God if there were counter views WARNING the public of such things as THALIDOMIDE which deformed & killed 10’s of thousands of babies. Knock off the tyranny

@BP_Rising: A “stock market” without true price discovery is no stock market at all. It’s just a centralized algo simulated boom and bust tool controlled via buttons/levers by autocrats behind a curtain. Gamed to increase price just so investors and traders can overpay – a Stonk Matrix.

Today – After the January CPI is released at 8:30 ET, ESHs should experience at least two dynamic moves before the NYSE open. If CPI is troubling, the equity rescue team will halt any decline and force ESHs higher to change the negative narrative and stock market psychology. It is much harder to these scams in the bond and forex markets. As noted above, the known trading universe expects stocks to rally unless January CPI is horribly worse than the expected +0.4% m/m. And pros expect the BLS to construct an unwarrantedly benign January CPI for political reasons.

Biden job approval dips below 40 percent for first time in RealClearPolitics average of polls: 39.8% approve, 54.4% disapprove. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

Now that The Street is long stocks because it thinks ESHs and stocks will soar after a benign CPI is released, be alert for a reversal after any meaningful rally. The Street believes that there is little or no chance that CPI will be ‘hot’. The S&P 500 Index closed at 4587.22; 4600 will be resistance. If the S&P 500 Index closes below its 126-DMA, it would be a very bad dynamic. ESHs are -6.50 at 20:00 ET.

Wednesday’s King Report: The game today will be to manipulate ESHs higher and get the S&P 500 Index safely above its 126-DMA. There is urgency in pushing stuff higher today because the January CPI will be released tomorrow. The S&P 500 Index closed 34 handles above its 126-DMA of 4553.

@SoccerMomTrades: Will be Eyeswatching closely for CPI print tomorrow…. should be interesting and decide the direction for the remaining 8 decades of this century

@FerroTV: January inflation estimates YoY: Credit Suisse 7.4%, StanChart 7.4%, BNP Paribas 7.3%,Citi 7.3%, Goldman 7.3%, JPMorgan 7.3%, Morgan Stanley 7.3%, Barclays 7.2%, HSBC 7.2%, SocGen 7.2%, TD 7.2%, Wells 7.2%, Deutsche Bank 7.2%, BofA 7.1% (Yet the Fed has rates at 0%!!!)

Fleet Forces: Navy Short 6,200 At-Sea Sailors Now to Meet New Manning Requirements
https://news.usni.org/2019/02/26/fleet-forces-navy-short-6200-at-sea-sailors-now-to-meet-new-manning-requirements

Liz Cheney’s Hunter Biden problem: Husband’s firm reps China companies, dictatorial regimes
Philip Perry is a partner at Latham & Watkins, which works on behalf of foreign entities, including some flagged as threats to U.S. national security.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/liz-cheneys-hunter-biden-problem-husbands-firm-represents

Where’s Liz Cheney? The Wyoming Republican’s Exile from Wyoming Republicans
The congresswoman hasn’t attended Republican Party events in person in her state in years, amid a wave of local conservative hostility. “I’m not going to convince the crazies,” she said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/us/politics/liz-cheney-wyoming-republicans.html

Mitch McConnell surfaced on Tuesday to slam House Republicans for censuring GOP Reps Cheney and Kinzinger for their roles on the Jan. 6 rigged committee. Mitch called Jan. 6 ‘a violent insurrection’. Trump eviscerated Mitch yesterday. Mitch cares little about Kinzinger, but Liz Cheney is GOP Establishment royalty. PS – McConnell has lower approval ratings than Pelosi!

@realLizUSA: President Donald J. Trump: “Mitch McConnell does not speak for the Republican Party, and does not represent the views of the vast majority of its voters. He did nothing to fight for his constituents and stop the most fraudulent election in American history. And he does nothing to stop the lawless Biden administration… which is all because of the fraudulent election. Instead, he bails out the Radical Left and the RINOs. https://twitter.com/realLizUSA/status/1491457766078451712

RNC censure heats up Hill, Stefanik says RNC had ‘every right’ to admonish Cheney, Kinzinger
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/stefanik-says-rnc-had-every-right-introduce-censure-resolution-against-cheney

WaPo’s @AaronBlake: McConnell joined many GOP leaders in rebuking RNC’s censures. The RNC’s response? To suggest such critics are stuck in the “D.C. bubble.” On a remarkable internecine GOP conflict, in which RNC suggests it might just side with the base over leaders:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/09/rncs-provocative-rebuttal-mcconnell-co/

Three quarters of Americans believe ‘Defund the Police’ caused violent crime wave, poll finds
https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/poll-75-say-defund-police-caused-violent-crime-wave

Homeless man (Seattle) with 14-year-long rap sheet cracks woman’s skull with a baseball bat https://trib.al/85zjIbD

Unsettling photos show heavily bruised great-grandfather, 78, after being forcefully handcuffed by Ottawa cops for honking his car horn to support Freedom Convoy as family says he is suffering from PTSD https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10494519/Photos-heavily-bruised-great-grandfather-78-forcefully-handcuffed-Ottawa-cops.html

FRIDAY

BOJ to Conduct Unlimited Fixed-Rate JGB Purchases at 0.25% – BBG 4:08 ET Thursday

BOJ Acts to Put Lid on Bond Yields and Affirm Dovish Stance – BBG 5:58 ET Thursday
The central bank will buy 10-year bonds at 0.25% on Feb. 14, according to a statement on its website that sparked a weakening of the yen. This is the first such operation since July 2018… Kuroda remains the last staunch dove at the world’s biggest central banks outside of China…
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/boj-seeks-to-rein-in-yields-with-unlimited-fixed-rate-purchases

Yesterday’s King Report: Now that The Street is long stocks because it thinks ESHs and stocks will soar after a benign CPI is released, be alert for a reversal after any meaningful rally. The Street believes that there is little or no chance that CPI will be ‘hot’.
Thursday’s King Report: Stocks Surge After JPM Hears “Whispers of CPI Below Expectations”…
JPMorgan’s Head of US Cash Trading…it does feel to me like the risk/reward is skewed to the upside for CPI… With soaring inflation crushing Biden’s approval rating… and with Democrats in desperate need of a hail mary ahead of the midterms to avoid a blowout loss… it is quite likely that tomorrow the BLS will use the nuclear option and revise much if not all of the recent inflationary surge…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-surge-after-jpm-hears-whispers-cpi-below-expectations-heres-how-trade-tomorrows

Jan CPI unexpectedly jumped to 7.5% y/y; Core hit 6% y/y; both are 40-year highs. 7.3% and 5.9% were expected. CPI increased 0.6% m/m, 0.5% expected. Core rose 0.6% m/m; 0.5% was consensus.   The transitory inflation reflected in the state-issued CPI has been 5% or more for nine straight months.

@NAR_Research: Nationally, the median single-family existing-home price rose at a slower rate of 14.6% year-over-year to $361,700 compared to the year-over-year pace in the previous quarter (15.9%).

@DianaOlick: Prices for home everything jump: Household furnishings: +9.3% YoY, Floor coverings: +7.2% YoY, Window coverings: +16.2% YoY, Bedding: +17% YoY, Bedroom furn: +13.7% YoY, Living/kitchen/dining furn: +20% YoY, Appliances: +8.5% YoY

Obviously, real inflation is double digits, far more than state issued CPI and Core. Using real housing inflation would hike CPI and Core above 10%. If other chicanery were removed from the tabulation of CPI, it would be at a mid-teenage rate. This is the reality for Americans, which is reflected in polls.@RNCResearch: Biden on inflation: “We’re in a situation now where you should have peace of mind.”
(Not a parody! Joe really said it!)  https://twitter.com/abigailmarone/status/1491839545112993795?s=02

Biden acknowledges inflation causing real stress for Americans
Biden claimed, “there are also signs that we will make it through this challenge.” “On higher prices, we have been using every tool at our disposal, and while today is a reminder that Americans’ budgets are being stretched in ways that create real stress at the kitchen table, there are also signs that we will make it through this challenge,” Biden said…  https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/10/politics/joe-biden-inflation/index.html

Biden Acknowledges ‘Real Stress’ for Families Hit by Price Surge
“While today’s report is elevated, forecasters continue to project inflation easing substantially by the end of 2022” … Biden highlighted the… record job and wage growth over the past year.
“We will continue to fight for costs in areas that have held back families and working people for decades, from prescription drugs to child care and elder care to their energy costs,” Biden said…

@AndyPuzder: Here’s the January “inflation rate vs wage growth” chart based on BLS data. Yet another month in the Biden economy when the number on paychecks went up while the value of those checks went down. https://t.co/Dj8tG8qTIQ

Democrat Senator Joe Manchin, who killed Biden’s Build Back Better over inflation concerns, took a victory lap after the Jan CPI report was released and before The Big Guy surfaced.

Manchin Blasts Inflation, Casts More Doubt on Biden Agenda

West Virginia Democrat calls on Fed to act on rising prices
Manchin has declared bulk of president’s plan ‘dead’

“Inflation taxes are draining the hard-earned wages of every American, and it’s causing real and severe economic pain that can no longer be ignored… It’s beyond time for the Federal Reserve to tackle this issue head on, and Congress and the Administration must proceed with caution before adding more fuel to an economy already on fire.”…
    “As inflation and our $30 trillion in national debt continue a historic climb, only in Washington, DC do people seem to think that spending trillions more of taxpayers’ money will cure our problems, let alone inflation,” he said. He has also been urging the Federal Reserve to stop quantitative easing for months because of soaring inflation and has easily been the Fed’s top Democratic critic.
    “The longer we or the Federal Reserve waits to act, the more economic pain will be caused,” he said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-10/manchin-casts-more-doubt-on-biden-agenda-with-blast-on-inflation

The odds of a 50bp Fed rate hike in March soared.  CME Fedwatch Tool: 89.9% chance of 50-75bp hike
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

@M_McDonough: 50bps vs 25bps in March (updated post-CPI release) [78.95%]
https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/1491785028950503426

St. Louis Fed Chair James Bullard said the central bank should raise rates by 100 basis points over the next three meetings. That sent risk assets tumbling, with the S&P 500 sliding 1.8% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropping 2.3%… Citi Now Sees 50 Basis Points Hike for March After CPI Data…
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-set-extend-rally-treasury-222853153.html

U.S. Rate Futures Price in 157 Basis Points of Tightening in 2022 – Fedwatch

Whispers of an Emergency Fed Rate Hike as Soon as Tomorrow (Today)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/whispers-emergency-fed-rate-hike-soon-tomorrow

The US 10-year note breached 2% (2.03%); the 2-year hit 1.56%. The Fed is six 25pb hikes behind the curve. Fed funds are at an all-time real interest rate (-7.5%) deficit. Bonds did NOT rally like ESHs did, which evinces a rig. The dollar soared on the release of the Jan CPI report; but it commenced a plunge at 9:11 ET. By 11:00 ET, the dollar was down substantially for the day, after being up sharply less than 2 hours earlier. Later, bonds tumbled, closing -2 points for the day; the dollar rebounded to a modest gain.

Note Bene: Despite all the inflation angst and technical damage in the markets over probable Fed rate hikes, the Fed is still doing QE!   Fed balance sheet: +$4.798B https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20220210/

CPI basket weight changehttps://t.co/umpUMcHUOF

@jasonfurman: Updated real wage growth by quartile using the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker. The bottom quartile have seen real wage gains over the last two years, albeit smaller than pre-pandemic. Everyone else’s wages are falling behind prices. ( Real ‘real wages’ are far worse) https://t.co/2YfKPX62Rp

PepsiCo CFO on battling inflation: Expect price hikes of up to 10% https://t.co/5xsO8JvAVM

Fertilizer Price Spikes (>100%) and Chinese Import Reliance Threatens US Agriculture Security. https://t.co/gHuGgDmsOK

Why the U.S. is facing a paint shortage – raw-material shortage… worsening supply chain shortages…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/why-the-us-is-facing-a-paint-shortage.html

Texas leads multi-state lawsuit against Biden administration for federal minimum wage hike
“As inflation skyrockets and the economy lags thanks to this Administration’s policies, Joe Biden decides to wreck it further by drastically increasing the federal minimum wage by executive fiat,” Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton told FOX Business. “I won’t let it happen. That’s why I’m suing him once again.”…  https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/texas-lawsuit-biden-administration-minimum-wage

Bloomberg (@business): The gasoline market is roaring higher in Europe and Asia as Nigeria urgently seeks resupply of the fuel after receiving cargoes that were unsuitable for domestic consumption https://t.co/iUNx1JyM5N

@jsblokland: Stunning chart by @RobinBrooksIIF showing how broad-based Eurozone inflation is. This is not just about energy and base effects and I’m beginning to think the #ECB is ready for a significant change in forward guidance in March.  https://twitter.com/jsblokland/status/1491501055649144832

A $10 Trillion Market Has a Big Interest-Rate Shock Problem – For investors in the $10 trillion market for U.S. corporate bonds, the saying might well be “duration, duration, duration. As central banks around the world gear up to raise interest rates in the face of higher inflation, there’s a looming risk for credit. That’s because many companies have been selling bonds with longer terms and at lower spreads, resulting in investors taking on what’s known as duration risk, or higher sensitivity to interest rates. This means that when benchmark rates rise, investors in investment-grade corporate bonds are typically vulnerable to big drops in value…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-10/a-10-trillion-market-has-a-big-interest-rate-shock-problem

U.S. lenders issued more credit cards than ever last year, and a growing share are going to consumers with lower credit scores – A record 196 million Americans held cards at the end of 2021, according to… TransUnion. In the third quarter, the latest for which detailed numbers are available, the number of new cards issued hit an all-time high of 20.1 million, it said. Some 9 million of them went to so-called non-prime borrowers — those with poor or fair credit…  https://t.co/p2bPU7pEtj

Johnson & Johnson quietly halted production of its COVID-19 vaccines: NYT
The halt is temporary and production is expected to start back up after a few months, according to the Times report… https://news.yahoo.com/johnson-johnson-quietly-halted-production-161850512.html

Positive aspects of previous session
Blatant massive manipulation when ESHs tumbled on ugly January CPI

Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds and stocks declined sharply even with the massive manipulation

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How long can the blatant manipulation persist?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4525.77
Previous session High/Low: 4588.92; 4484.31

COVID pivot: Dems do 180 on pandemic response, attempt to rewrite history
Biden, allies pivot from war footing to moving past virus, claiming credit while announcing policies long since implemented by red states.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/tale-two-covids-dems-do-180-pandemic-response-attempt-rewrite-history

Newsweek’s @josh_hammer: As even Democrats try to distance themselves from COVID insanity, the imperative shifts to not forgetting the elites that did this to us and holding them responsible for what they have done.

SEC Adopts New Disclosure Rules for Private Equity Shops and Hedge Funds
The agency on Wednesday voted in favor of adopting a string of new rules that would require annual audits of private funds – including family offices like Archegos – while barring certain fees that buyout shops charge, while also barring preferential treatment for certain investors, according to the FT…
https://t.co/HpNO9MQttH

Lagarde Warns ECB Acting Too Fast Could Choke Economy’s Recovery – BBG 18:00 ET Thursday
(The internal conflict within the ECB over inflation and rate hikes is now very public!)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-10/lagarde-warns-ecb-acting-too-fast-could-choke-economy-s-recovery

@MetreSteven28m: The Fed is supposed to announce its QE schedule for the next month with it dropping to $60b. I wonder if a surprise announcement will lead to a bigger reduction…

Today – The technical damage to stocks and bonds on Thursday was severe – and it decisively thwarted a major upward ESH manipulation. Also, the determined manipulation to push the S&P 500 Index above its critical 126-day moving average was rejected with prejudice. There is no reason to be long until the Fed signals what it will do – or you are connected to the equity rescue team.

The usual suspects will try to force the S&P 500 Index above its 126-day moving average (4553). Be alert for a late rally, especially if stocks sink before the afternoon, because this is the Friday before expiry week.   PS – CPI is at a 40-year high. A bond secular bear ended in 1982; it has been in a record bull market since then.  Bond managers under the age of 61+ have never navigated a secular bond bear market.  ESHs are -22.50 at 20:15 ET.

Expected Economic Data: Feb UM Sentiment 67, Current Conditions 72.1, Expectations 64.5

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4611; 100-day MA: 4573; 150-day MA: 45268; 200-day MA: 4451
DJIA 50-day MA: 35,502; 100-day MA: 35,402; 150-day MA: 35,278; 200-day MA 35,037

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4153.02 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4769.19 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4592.15 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4579.05 triggers a buy signal

Biden showered with ‘Let’s Go Brandon’ chants and ‘Build Crack Better’ signs on Virginia roadway   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-showered-with-lets-go-brandon-chants-signs-virginia-roadway

Dr. Zelenko: “Zinc Is the Bullet — It Kills the Virus. The Only Problem Is the Bullet Doesn’t Get to The Place Where It Needs to Be” – The virus is inside the cell. The enzyme is inside the cell. And the zinc on its own cannot get into the cell. You have a bullet without a gun – useless… a class of substances called ‘zinc ionophores’… allows zinc to go from outside the cell to inside the cell. There are four of them that are readily available – two of them are prescription and two of them are over-the-counter. The two prescription ones everyone has heard of: Hydroxycholorquine and Ivermection…
   Now you don’t need permission from the government. You can go to a pharmacy or go to a supermarket and buy an over-the-counter option of quercetin together with Zinc and Vitamin C and Vitamin D. Together it creates a very powerful immune-boosting nutritional supplement…
https://bigleaguepolitics.com/dr-zelenko-zinc-is-the-bullet-it-kills-the-virus-the-only-problem-is-the-bullet-doesnt-get-to-the-place-where-it-needs-to-be/

Police Beating of Unconscious Trump Supporter Was “Objectively Reasonable,” Department Rules
As Boyland lay unconscious on the ground DC Metro Police Officer Lila Morris repeatedly struck her with a steel baton and what appeared to be a wooden walking stick, according to a video recording…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/police-beating-unconscious-trump-supporter-was-objectively-reasonable-department-rules

GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: Good news. Biden’s HHS is no longer funding crack pipes. But make no mistake: yesterday’s change in policy is because HHS got caught. https://t.co/s7nW1mN3GS

Founding editorial board member, NATO Defense Strategic Communications journal @JMichaelWaller: Is there any reason the @January6thCmte hasn’t said boo about these Ukrainians and their American associates on J6? It seems like a big deal, especially the connections in Donetsk. What’s the connection between Dybynyn and the man he’s with, Brock, who was photographed on the Senate floor as “Ziptie Man” on January 6?  https://twitter.com/JMichaelWaller/status/1491596339368583172
    What were Dybynyn and Brock doing together in Donetsk in 2014, the year of the declaration of a pro-Russian “people’s republic” in that city, and the Obama-backed color revolution in Kyiv?
What brought them together at the US Capitol with Q-Anon Man on January 6, 2021?
https://twitter.com/JMichaelWaller/status/1491598020877721603

@AdamSchefter: NFL commissioner Roger Goodell sent a memo to all clubs this morning regarding coaching diversity and admitted “the results have been unacceptable.”
https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1489985648853405703
      GOP Rep candidate Patrick Witt @patrickjwitt: Goodell should set an example and step down in favor of a more diverse commissioner.

@WhitlockJason: I asked Rashad McCants whether there’s a lack of respect for black male leadership among black athletes. (Decades of research on this) https://twitter.com/WhitlockJason/status/1491904573132484615

Why Newspapers Refuse to Correct Errors
The Times is not operating in a vacuum. One reason it is not owning up to its errors is that the people whose goodwill it depends on – its readers and the larger journalistic community, including the board of the Pulitzer Prize – do not seem to care. I think they believe our country is at war with itself and that admitting that the most prestigious news outlets on their side made grave errors in reporting the biggest story of the last five years would give succor to the enemy. Perversely, acknowledging these errors would be an act of betrayal to the larger cause embraced by the increasingly radicalized minority of people who buy their product and pay their bills. Tout pour la guerre (Everything for war)…
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/02/08/why_newspapers_refuse_to_correct_errors_147153.html

WI state rep @RepSnodgrass: If parents want to “have a say” in their child’s education, they should home school or pay for private school tuition out of the family budget. (Fury ensued!)
    I deleted my Tweet since it was lacking in nuance and easily misinterpreted. I wouldn’t want anyone to think that parents do not have a role in their child’s public education-I sure did. I encourage all parents to engage in voting for school board, join PTO and meet with teachers… Of course parents need to have a say in their kids’ education and their classrooms! (Ms. Snodgrass’s gaslighting is laughable!)

“Slash The Tires, Arrest the Drivers”: Harvard Professor and CNN Analyst Calls for Violence Against Freedom Convo – former Obama admin undersecretary of Homeland Security Juliette Kayyem has called for violence and vandalism against Freedom Convoy protesters…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/slash-tires-arrest-drivers-harvard-professor-and-cnn-analyst-calls-violence-against

@AFP: White House urges Canada to use ‘federal powers’ to end border blockade

Hillary Clinton, other leftists, elements of the MSM and Democratic Party beseeched Americans to ‘resist’ Trump as president. Now, these people are livid over people that resist leftist leaders.

@HowieCarrShow: JOE BIDEN LIES AGAIN! Biden today claimed his grandfather, Ambrose Finnegan, was an All-American football player out of Santa Clara University…. According to @NCAAFootball
official records, there is no record of ANYONE named Finnegan out of Santa Clara EVER being named All-American.  https://twitter.com/HowieCarrShow/status/1491925956759633935

Wanted – Joe Rogan for Killing Dinosaurs
Mark Dice… took to the streets of California to ask random people their opinions on Joe Rogan’s hunting the Triceratops in Africa and asked them to sign a petition to have the Triceratops added to the list of endangered species. Triceratops hasn’t walked the earth since the Late Cretaceous period 68 million years ago… Sad but amusing, people openly expressed their disdain for Joe Rogan’s dinosaur hunting… https://rightwirereport.com/2022/02/10/wanted-joe-rogan-for-killing-dinosaurs/

@TommyPigott: Biden (On Joe-friendly NBC last night): “And there is no way we were ever going to unite Ukraine…I mean excuse me Iraq…Afghanistan.” https://twitter.com/TommyPigott/status/1491927844259348515

NASA is hiring priests to prepare humans for contact with aliens
https://www.wionews.com/science/nasa-is-hiring-priests-to-prepare-humans-for-contact-with-aliens-440433?s=02

What happened to “Take me to your leader”? Ummmm, that’s not a good idea now

end

Let us close out the week with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

Rotten Biden Numbers, Desperate Dems, Gold Smells Fear

By Greg Hunter On February 11, 2022 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups17 Comments

Harvey Rotten Biden Numbers, Desperate Dems, Gold Smells Fear

Inbox

Rotten Biden Numbers, Desperate Dems, Gold Smells Fear | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 515 2.11.22)

The numbers for the Biden Administration keep coming in, and every month the numbers more rotten than before. CNN just reported in a new poll that 57% think Biden’s first year is a failure. I say this is the best they can make it look, and no way 43% think Biden is making America anything but a third world hell hole.

The rotten numbers are why you are seeing increasing desperate acts by Deep State Democrats. Nearly 30 Dems are throwing in the towel and not running for re-election in the House. You are also seeing increasing desperate acts by the Biden Administration such as its DHS calling criticism and facts a “heightened terrorism threat.” Yes, Biden and crew are so desperate they are outright attacking the Frist Amendment. I smell a huge backfire coming.

The Fed keeps threatening a rate hike. Gold is not buying it at $1,824 per ounce, and you should not either, according to economist John Williams, founder of Shadowstats.com. If the Fed is stupid enough to raise rates in this very weak economy, you can expect a hyperinflationary Great Depression. Who knows what the Fed will do because it, too, is desperate, and gold smells fear.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up 2.11.22.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

After the Interview:

Rotten Biden Numbers, Desperate Dems, Gold Smells Fear

Rob Kirby of KirbyAnalytics.com will join us from Toronto, Canada, to talk truckers and an exploding money supply. Hint: the inflation you are seeing is just the beginning.

This segment is sponsored by Discount Gold and Silver Trading. Ask for Melody Cedarstrom, the owner, at 1-800-375-4188.

end

Well that is all for today. I will see you MONDAY night

Greg Hunter via aweber.com	1:11 AM (6 hours ago)
to Harvey

Robert Hryniak	11:03 AM (53 minutes ago)
to Harvey

Milan Sabioncello	12:24 AM (7 hours ago)
to me

Milan Sabioncello	12:06 AM (7 hours ago)
to me

Milan Sabioncello	8:34 AM (7 minutes ago)
to me

FEB 11

DONATE

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEB. CONTRACT: 10 NOTICE(S) FOR 1000 OZ (0.03110 TONNES)

total notices so far: 17,443 contracts for 1,744,300 oz (54.255 tonnes)

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6.Global Issues

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Pam and Russ Martens: Fed Chair Jerome Powell twice broke his board’s own trading rules

Guac Shock: Avocado Prices Have Never Been This High For A Super Bowl

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

Futures Reverse Overnight Rout As Doubts Emerge About Aggressive Fed Hiking

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

Bank of Japan Offers To Buy Unlimited 10 Year JGBs To Contain Bond Rout

3c CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Britons Face “Perfect Storm” Of Rising Taxes, Heating Costs, & Food Inflation

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

US State Dept Issues Highest-Level “Do Not Travel” Warning For Ukraine

Pentagon Holds Rare Call With Belarus Army Chief To Avoid “Miscalculation”

Yemen Sees Most Casualties From Saudi Air War In 5 Years

The deadly drums of upcoming potential war are beating and we await to see what fools march to the beat

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

Ontario Premier Orders GiveSendGo To Freeze Funds For Anti-Mandate Protesters

“Slash The Tires, Arrest The Drivers”: Harvard Professor And CNN Analyst Calls For Violence Against Freedom Convoy

“We Just Want Our Freedom Back” – Ford Considers Flying Car Parts To Canada Factory As Trucker Blockade Continues

Coronavirus can destroy the placenta and lead to stillbirths | AP News

Tucker tonight

Senator Rand Paul on current situation

Message to Truckers from Dr. Christian

Were Masks A Waste Of Time?

Who You Allow to Define “Sickness” Determines if You Live in Slavery, or Freedom

February 10, 2022 6:01 pm

Trucker Freedom Convoy Now up Against Both Canadian and U.S. Government as They Try to Seize Funds on New Platform

February 10, 2022 8:14 pm

Michael Every

Rabobank: The Only Question Is When, And How Large The Fed’s Policy Error Will Be

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

Markets Turmoil Amid ‘Russia Invades’ Reports & Bullard’s Bond Bloodbath

Oil Soars; Ruble, Stocks Tumbles On Report “US Believes” Putin Will Launch “Horrific, Bloody ” Invasion Of Ukraine Next Week

UMich Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Crashes To 11-Year Lows, Democrat Confidence Dumps

Rep. Roy Introduces Bill To Reinstate Troops Discharged For Refusing COVID-19 Vaccine

Amazon Bars Unvaccinated Workers From Receiving Paid COVID Medical Leave

The Mystery Of The Migrant Kids The Feds Are Spiriting Into The U.S. Interior

CNN Admits Most Americans Can’t Find One Good Thing About Biden Presidency As Approval Rating Plummets

Rotten Biden Numbers, Desperate Dems, Gold Smells Fear

Harvey Rotten Biden Numbers, Desperate Dems, Gold Smells Fear

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