FEB 14

FEB14

· by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment ·Edit

GOLD; UP $27.20 to $1867.90

SILVER: $23.83 UP 49 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1871.80

SILVER: $23.87

Bitcoin: morning price: 42,136 DOWN 314

Bitcoin: afternoon price: 42,168 DOWN 346

Platinum price: closing DOWN $5.85 to $1032.35

Palladium price; closing UP $22.30 at $2328.15

END

end

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comex notices//JPMorgan notices filedcomex notices//JPMorgan notices filed 15/35

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,840.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/11/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 02/15/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

118 C MACQUARIE FUT 2
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 2
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 16
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 8
661 H JP MORGAN 7
905 C ADM 32

TOTAL: 35 35
MONTH TO DATE: 17,478

COMEX//NOTICES:EXCHANGE: COMEX FILED:EXCHANGE: COMEX

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEB. CONTRACT: 35 NOTICE(S) FOR 3500 OZ (0.1088 TONNES)

total notices so far: 17,478 contracts for 1,747,800 oz (54.363 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 1278 : for 6,390,000 oz

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $27.20

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES AT THE GLD:

CLOSING INVENTORY :1019.44 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER U[ 49 CENTS:/:

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY SLV/ TONIGHT: 547.808 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE 3360 CONTRACTS TO 160,585 AND RESTS CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND DESPITE THIS HUGE GAIN IN OI, IT WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE $0.18 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.18) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 4010 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES .

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 110,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 7.555 MILLION OZ. V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN.

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS -710

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 10 days, total contracts: : 5369 contracts or 26.845 million oz OR 2.685 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (537 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 5369 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 26.845 MILLION OZ

LAST 10 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 23.595 MILLION OZ//

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAR.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3360 DESPITE OUR CONSIDERABLE $0.18 LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 650 CONTRACTS( 650 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 4.1 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 110,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 7.555, MILLION OZ// .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF4720 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 23.60 MILLION OZ//

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 15.329 TO 545.832 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: —860 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

THE HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $4.50//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED 12,314 CONTRACTS…

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB AT 64.3 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10-00 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON //NEW STANDING: 58.4479 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $4.50 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 20,158 OI CONTRACTS (62.699 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3969 CONTRACTS:

FOR APRIL 3919 ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL:3919

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 546,696.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 20,158, WITH 16,189 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3969 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 20,158 CONTRACTS OR 62.699TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3969) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (15,329,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 20,158 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 64.30 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 1000 OZ//NEW STANDING 58.4479 TONNES// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ,4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :

19,524 CONTRACTS OR 1,952,400 oz OR 60.72 TONNES 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1953 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 60.72 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 60.72/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.71% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 145.12 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 60.72 TONNES//INITIAL

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 3360 CONTRACTS TO 159.876 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 4 1/2 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 650 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 650 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 650 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 4070 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 650 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 4010 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 20.05 MILLION OZ,

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.18 LOSS IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 34.07 PTS OR 0.98% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 350.09 PTS OR 1.41% /The Nikkei closed down 616.49 or 2,23% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.26% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3580 /Oil UP TO 92/14 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 93.66 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3580. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3603: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEEAKER//

A)NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 15,329 CONTRACTS AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN OF $4.50 IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP (3969 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3969 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , & FEB. 0 APRIL: 3969 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3969 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 19,298 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3969 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 15.329 CONTRACTS..

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (58.4479),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

FEB 2022: 58.4479 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $4.50)AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE REGISTERED A GAIN OF 60.02 TONNES OF TOTAL OI, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (58.4479 TONNES)…

WE HAD –868 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 19,298 CONTRACTS OR 1,929,800 OZ OR 60.02 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 214,780 /// fair

Confirmed volume yesterday: 255,136 contracts fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB ’22 COMEX GOLD //FEB 14

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	8037.75 oz Int Delaware 25 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil
No of oz served (contracts) today	35 notice(s) 3500 OZ 0.1088 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	1313 contracts 131,300 oz 4.0839 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	17,478 notices 1,747,800 OZ 54.363 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

For today:

No dealer deposit 0

No dealer withdrawal 0

0 customer deposit

total deposit: nil oz

1 customer withdrawal

I) Out of Delaware: 8037.75 oz 25 kilobars

total withdrawals: 8037.75 oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 1/ Brinks/dealer to customer

4533.288 oz (141 kilobars)

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 1348 stand for LOSING 20 contracts.

We had 10 contracts served upon yesterday, so we LOST 10 contracts or an additional 1000 oz will NOT stand on this side of the pond looking for gold metal.

The month of March saw a GAIN of 28 contracts and thus the OI standing is 4288.

April saw a GAIN of 13,715 contracts up to 424,569.

June saw a gain of 1398 contracts up to 69,241 contracts

We had 10 notice(s) filed today for 1000 oz FOR THE FEB 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 35 contract(s) of which 7 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 8 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2021. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (17,478) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEB: 1348 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 35 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,881,100 OZ OR 58.4479 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of FEB.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:

No of notices filed so far (17,478) x 100 oz+ (1348) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (35} x 100 oz} which equals 1,878,300 oz standing OR 58.4479 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEB.

We LOST 10 contracts or an additional 100 oz will NOT stand for gold over here

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 58.4479 TONNES (HUGE FOR A FEBRUARY DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

157,392.690, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 4.89 TONNES

125,410.592 PLEDGED MANFRA 2.90 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690

288,481,604, oz JPM No 2 8.97 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware: 0..3810 tonne

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold: 1,553,863.297 oz 48.331 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 32,665,081 OZ (1016.02 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,428,326.030 OZ (479.89 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,236,735.572 OZ (536.13 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,682,872.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 487.95 tonnes

END

FEBRUARY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//FEB 14

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	565,316.52 oz Brinks CNT Manfra JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	4950.876 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)	0CONTRACT(S)(nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	233 contracts (1,165,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1278 contracts 6,390,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into Delaware: 4950.865

total deposit: 4950.875 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 184.320 million oz/351.592 million =52.41% of comex

ii) Comex withdrawals: 4

a)Out of CNT 250,368.810 oz

b)Out of Brinks 285,117.160 oz

c) Our of JPMorgan: 4952.700 oz

d) Out of Manfra: 34,877.850 px

total withdrawal 99,921.240 oz

we had 0 adjustments

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 84.148 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 351.593 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF FEB//2022 OI: 233 CONTRACTS LOSING 7 contracts on the day. We had 29 contracts served upon yesterday.

So we gained 22 contracts or an additional 110,000 oz will stand for silver on this side of the pond.

FOR MARCH WE HAD A LOSS OF 4598 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 67,196 CONTRACTS.

APRIL HAD A ZERO GAIN// CONTRACTS REMAIN AT 83

MAY HAD A GAIN OF 7349 CONTRACTS UP TO 73,142 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz

Comex volumes: 63,734// est. volume today//fair

Comex volume: confirmed FRIDAY: 101,643 contracts (very strong)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1278 x 5,000 oz =. 6,390,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB (233) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2021 contract month: 1278 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB (233) – number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates 7,555,000 oz. .

We gained 22 CONTRACTS OR 110,000 ADDITIONAL oz of silver will stand at the comex.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

GLD

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $27.20 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.60 TONNES//

FEB 4/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.59 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.95//A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.78 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.04 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $10.10//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.15//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.10 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $10.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $10.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN UNBELIEVABLE DEPOSIT OF 27.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.86 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.86 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $29.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.44 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.65//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $19.25/A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.08 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1019.44 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THES LV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV/FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.143 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.218 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.430 MILLION OZ/

FEB 4/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILION OZ

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT539.212 MILLION OZ//

FEB 2/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.411 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS : NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 27/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.311 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ/

.JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.8 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 532.692 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.792 MILLION OZ

JAN 20/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.998 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.792 MILLION OZ

JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 71 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.942 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 525.804 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF 1.11 MILLION OZ AND 1.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.246 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ/.

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY

RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 547.808 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James RICKARD

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Positive gold momentum suggests breakout

The strong positive gold price movement at the end of last week confirmed our stated views of the considered effects of the likely U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed)’s moves envisaged at the mid-January FOMC meeting. The immediate aftermath of the Fed’s likely more aggressive approach to try and control inflation was for the gold price to take a quite severe knock, but we said at the time that further consideration would likely see a gold price uptick, and so it came about. The yellow metal’s price ended the week at just short of $1,860 – a big rise from the $1,780 level to which it had fallen in the days following news of the Fed’s likely more aggressive (hawkish) tightening programme, delivered in subsequent statements and Fed chair Jerome Powell’s post FOMC meeting press conference.

The adverse market reaction seems to have been a throwback to gold’s reaction to threats of Fed rate increase rises of a couple of years earlier. The principal difference then, of course, is that the current high inflation levels had not yet made an impact. This time around the latest official Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for January showing an annual inflation increase of around 7.5%, have just been released, and this almost certainly understates reality. A couple of years ago, the Fed had been struggling to encourage an annual inflation rise of even 2%, so an increase in interest rates would have had a much greater impact on a non-interest-generating asset like gold. The current inflation rate suggests that even a series of more aggressive Fed interest rate rises will be insufficient to move real interest rates into positive territory and negative real rates are considered bullish for gold.

Raising interest rates, coupled with the forthcoming ending of Fed bond buying activity, due to be completed next month, is also deemed to be negative for equity prices, Not only does the bond buying tapering cut off funding from the equity markets, but higher interest rates tend to reduce business profitability – something of a double whammy for stock prices. Weakness in equity prices is also gold positive as it makes safe haven assets like gold more attractive to investors.

Geopolitical factors – notably the hysteria, as President Putin describes it – over a possible invasion of Ukraine by Russian armed forces, has also given something of a boost to gold. The U.S. Administration has gone on record as saying a Russian invasion could happen as soon as Wednesday this week. We are somewhat less convinced on this, feeling that the Russian troop movements on the Ukraine border are more likely to be sabre-rattling. The likely casualty cost of an invasion would be too high given that the claimed size of the amassed Russian troops is pretty much matched by the likely size of a defensive Ukrainian army. If Russia truly wishes to destabilise Ukraine it has the economic means to do so without the necessity of a military incursion. President Putin has always been adamant that Russia will not invade, and although one’s confidence in believing political utterances is pretty low, he has much to lose if he breaks his word. We may be wrong, but we shouldn’t have long to wait to see which conclusion is the more accurate.

If Russia does invade, then this would likely drive more investors into gold as a safe haven. If tensions were to ease the opposite may occur, but we think that even if the latter occurs, the potential fallout from further consideration of likely Fed tapering moves will be sufficient to return gold to a rising path before too long. The momentum looks to be positive for the moment.

Of course Western political posturing over the will they, won’t they invade scenario may just be an attempt to divert opinion from domestic problems. If there is no Russian invasion then there will be claims that Western diplomacy has saved the day and kept us all out of World War 3, and the politicians will bask in their perceived success in so doing. This may give U.S. President Biden and UK Prime Minister Johnson some additional much-needed brownie points – or am I being too cynical here?

It will be interesting to see how the gold price moves in the current week and beyond. If the price holds – advances even – then we will definitely be back on track for a $2,000 gold price before the year end. Indeed this may even prove to be a distinctly conservative forecast. If gold falls back, perhaps due to a more aggressive than generally considered Fed, then all bets are off – but we still think the Fed may err on the side of caution with respect to interest rate rises. An overly aggressive approach could rapidly cause a significant equity downturn and likely be responsible for tipping the U.S. into recession which would have a global knock-on effect. Surely The Fed would want to avoid that happening?

13 Feb 2022

end

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

a must view…

Major bullion bank has exited unallocated gold, London trader Maguire says

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-02-11 21:48Section: Daily Dispatches

9:49p ET Friday, February 11, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

London bullion trader Andrew Maguire, interviewed this week by Shane Morand in Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program, says a major LBMA-member bullion bank has just closed all its unallocated gold positions under pressure of the “Basel 3” regulations for gold and silver trading by banks.

Maguire says that the gold exchange-traded fund GLD and the silver exchange-traded fund SLV are the only mechanisms left to sustain the “paper” gold and silver trade. Anyone who invests in GLD and SLV, Maguire says, is helping to suppress monetary metals prices.

Morand’s interview with Maguire is 32 minutes long and can be seen at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@ATA.org

END

Sound Money Defense League seeks to end heavy taxes on monetary gold and silver

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-02-12 18:27Section: Daily Dispatches

6:28p Saturday, February 12, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Burdensome U.S. federal and state tax treatment of monetary gold and silver was described yesterday by the Sound Money Defense League’s JP Cortez in an interview with Kitco News anchor David Lin.

The league is urging the states to lift their sales taxes on monetary gold and silver.

State sales taxes and state and federal capital gains taxes on the monetary metals powerfully discourage investors from protecting their savings against inflation, Cortez notes.

The league also is urging state government investment officials to consider holding monetary metals to protect state funds against inflation.

The interview is 16 minutes long and can be viewed at Kitco here:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-02-11/Gold-silver-sales-are-still-being-taxed-is-that-about-to-change-soon-Jp-Cortez.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

This is your weekend paper by Alasdair Macleod..

Alasdair Macleod..

Alasdair Macleod: The difference between ‘growth’ and progress

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-02-11 22:54Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, February 10, 2022

Governments and central banks are making the mistake of believing that growth in gross domestic product is a primary measure of economic performance. This confuses growth, measured as a total of transactions without regard to their quality, with progress, where quality of life is the driving factor.

The origin of this error is mathematical economics, which has banned human action from all policy considerations. You cannot quantify progress, while you can add up all the transactions that make up GDP. GDP rises, or grows, only when the currency value of transactions recorded increases. And that can be the case only if the quantity of currency in circulation inflates.

This article explains why this is so and describes why it is progress that should be everyone’s economic objective. But that can be fostered only by sound money, enabling economic calculation, and minimising government intervention. That is on no one’s agenda.

Instead, the inflation of GDP is rapidly driving the world into an interest rate crisis, likely to be far worse than currently expected, indiscriminately taking out economies and financial systems and being unbacked by anything other than diminishing faith and credit in them, fiat currencies as well. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/difference-between-growth-and-progress?gmrefcode=gata

END

Robert Lambourne: BIS swaps increased by 21% in January.

(Robert Lambourne/GATA)

Robert Lambourne: BIS gold swaps increased by 21% in January

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-02-11 22:15Section: Daily Dispatches

By Robert Lambourne
Friday, February 11, 2022

The recently released January 2022 statement of account of the Bank for International Settlements —

Click to access statofacc220131.pdf

— contains information suggesting an increase of about 87 tonnes in the bank’s gold swaps, from 414 tonnes in December to 501 tonnes in January, or 21%. This compares to the record 12-month high estimated at 552 tonnes at the end of February 2021

Again it is clear that the BIS remains an active trader of significant volumes of gold swaps. The recent data still suggests that there is no clear downward or upward trend in the volume of swaps, and hence again it seems premature to claim that an exit from the BIS swaps is happening due to “Basel III” regulations

.The BIS rarely comments publicly on its gold banking activities, but its first use of gold swaps was considered important enough to cause the bank to give some background information to the Financial Times for an article published July 29, 2010, coinciding with publication of the bank’s 2009/10 annual report.

The general manager of the BIS at the time, Jaime Caruana, said the gold swaps were “regular commercial activities” for the bank, and he confirmed that they all were carried out with commercial banks and so did not involve other central banks. Hence it is likely that the recent level of gold swaps is the highest use of them by the BIS for at least 20 years. It also seems likely that the swaps are still all made with commercial banks, because the BIS annual report has never disclosed a gold swap between the BIS and a major central bank.

The swap transactions potentially create a mismatch at the BIS, which conceivably ends up being long unallocated gold (the gold held in BIS sight accounts at major central banks) and short allocated gold (the gold required to be returned to swap counterparties). This possible mismatch has not been reported by the BIS.

The gold banking activities of the BIS have been a regular part of the services it offers to central banks since the establishment of the BIS 90 years ago. The first annual report of the BIS explains these activities in some detail:

http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1931_en.pdf

The use of gold swaps to take gold held by commercial banks and then deposit it in gold sight accounts held in the name of the BIS at major central banks doesn’t appear to have ever been as large a part of the BIS’ gold banking business as it has been in recent years.

At March 31, 2010, excluding gold owned by the BIS, there were 1,706 tonnes held in gold sight accounts at major central banks in the name of the BIS, of which 346 tonnes or 20% were sourced from gold swaps from commercial banks.

As can readily be seen the BIS now operates a much smaller gold banking business and the role of gold swaps in this smaller business is proportionately far greater.

If the BIS was adopting the level of disclosures made by publicly held companies, such as commercial banks, some explanation of these changes probably would have been required by the accounting regulators. One imagines that this irony is not lost on those dealing with regulatory activities at the BIS. Presumably the shrinkage of the gold banking business shows that even central banks now prefer to hold their own gold or hold it in earmarked form — that is, as allocated gold.

A review of Table B below highlights recent BIS activity with gold swaps, and despite the recent declines, the latest position estimated from the BIS monthly statements remains large.

No explanation for this continuing high level of swaps has been published by the BIS. Indeed, no comment on the bank’s use of gold swaps has been offered since 2010.

This gold is supplied by bullion banks via the swaps to the BIS. The gold is then deposited in BIS gold sight accounts (unallocated gold accounts) at major central banks such as the Federal Reserve.

The BIS’ use of gold swaps and derivatives has been extensive over the last 12 months, with the average level reported during that period still being the highest since August 2018, as highlighted in Table B below.

By contrast, in May 2019 the BIS was exposed to only 78 tonnes in swaps.

As can be seen in Table A below, the BIS has used gold swaps extensively since its financial year 2009-10. No use of swaps is reported in the annual reports for at least 10 years prior to the year ended March 2010.

The February 2021 estimate of the bank’s gold swaps (552 tonnes) is higher than any level of swaps reported by the BIS at its March year-end since March 2010. The swaps reported at March 2021 constitute the highest year-end level reported, as is clear from Table A.

—–

Table A — Swaps reported in BIS annual reports

March 2010: 346 tonnes.
March 2011: 409 tonnes.
March 2012: 355 tonnes.
March 2013: 404 tonnes.
March 2014: 236 tonnes.
March 2015: 47 tonnes.
March 2016: 0 tonnes.
March 2017: 438 tonnes.
March 2018: 361 tonnes.
March 2019: 175 tonnes
March 2020: 326 tonnes
March 2021: 490 tonnes

—–

The table below reports the estimated swap levels since August 2018. It can be seen that the BIS is actively involved in trading gold swaps and other gold derivatives with changes from month to month reported in excess of 100 tonnes in this period.

—–

Table B – Swaps estimated by GATA from BIS monthly statements of account

Month ….. Swaps
& year … in tonnes
Jan-22….…/501
Dec-21……/414
Nov-21..…/451
Oct-21…./414
Sep-21 … /438
Aug-21 …./464
Jul-21 …. /502
Jun-21 …./471
May-21 …./517
Apr-21 …. /472
Mar-21…. /490±
Feb-21 …../552
Jan-21 …. /523
Dec-20 …. /545
Nov-20 …. /520
Oct-20 …. /519
Sep-20…../ 520
Aug-20…../ 484
Jul-20 ….. / 474
Jun-20 …. / 391
May-20 …. / 412
Apr-20 …. / 328
Mar-20 …. / 326*
Feb-20 …. / 326
Jan-20 …. / 320
Dec-19 …. / 313
Nov-19 …. / 250
Oct-19 …. / 186
Sep-19 …. / 128
Aug-19 …. / 162
Jul-19 ….. / 95
Jun-19 …. / 126
May-19 …. / 78
Apr-19 ….. / 88
Mar-19 …. / 175
Feb-19 …. / 303
Jan-19 …. / 247
Dec-18 …. / 275
Nov-18 …. / 308
Oct-18 …. / 372
Sep-18 …. / 238
Aug-18 …. / 370

± The estimate originally reported by GATA was 487 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 490 tonnes, It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.

* The estimate originally reported by GATA was 332 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 326 tonnes. It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.

GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends.

—–

As noted already, the BIS in recent times has refused to explain its activities in the gold market, nor for whom the bank is acting:

http://www.gata.org/node/17793

Despite this reticence the BIS is almost certainly acting on behalf of central banks in taking out these swaps, as they are the BIS’ owners and control its Board of Directors.

This refusal to explain prompts some observers to believe that the BIS acts as an agent for central banks intervening surreptitiously in the gold and currency markets, providing those central banks with access to gold as well as protection from exposure of their interventions.

One possibility is that the swaps provide a mechanism for bullion banks to return gold that was lent to them by central banks to cover possible shortfalls of gold in the market. Some commentators have suggested that a portion of the gold held by exchange-traded funds and managed by bullion banks is sourced directly from central banks.

—–

Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults with GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.

END

Russia again takes note of GATA’s work against gold market rigging

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-02-14 14:25Section: Daily Dispatches

2:31p ET Monday, February 14, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA’s work again is being noticed in Russia.

In June 2004 the deputy chairman of the Russian central bank, the Bank of Russia, speaking to a conference of the London Bullion Market Association in Moscow, provocatively mentioned GATA’s complaint of manipulation of the gold market:

https://www.gata.org/node/11723

Two months ago, in an essay published in several Russian newspapers headlined “Inflation as an Economic Phenomenon,” the lawyer, economist, and historian Andrey Bykov praised GATA’s work, noted the suppression of the gold price via the abrupt dumping of gold futures contracts in the United States, and urged the Russian government to protect the country’s social-insurance fund against inflation by purchasing physical as opposed to “paper” gold.

In his essay, Bykov, who attended GATA’s Gold Rush 21 conference in Dawson City, Yukon Territory, Canada, in 2005, likened gold price suppression to a scheme to monopolize gold. He wrote: “The monopolistic owner of the world’s gold would be able to set the price of the world’s natural wealth as he sees fit.”

A Russian newspaper copy of Bykov’s essay is posted in PDF format at GATA’s internet site here:

Click to access Bykov-InflationAsAnEconomicPhenomenon-InRussian.pdf

An English translation of the essay is posted in PDF format at GATA’s internet site here:

Click to access Bykov-InflationAsAnEconomicPhenomenon-inEnglish.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Pam and Russ Martens: 46% of Nasdaq stocks are more than 50% below their 52-week high

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-02-14 10:21Section: Daily Dispatches

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Monday, February 14, 2022

The stock market indices that get all the headlines have failed to capture the brutal deterioration that has been occurring for months among the individual stock components of those indices.

In early February, Bank of America reported that 46% of Nasdaq’s component companies were more than 50% below their 52-week highs. And the deterioration in breadth began long before FebruaryOn December 28, 2021, Wall Street On Parade ran this headline: “A Tale of Two Markets: S&P 500 Notches Its 69th Record Close as the Bottom Falls Out of the Nasdaq.” We noted in the article that “on December 3 there were 585 new 52-week lows on the Nasdaq stock market versus 12 new 52-week highs. To look at it another way, 48.75 times more stocks were setting new 52-week lows than were reaching new 52-week highs. That doesn’t sound like the definition of a bull market to us.”

A chart published by Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab & Co., on January 31 this year underscored the deterioration occurring below the headline index numbers.

Sonders reported that the average stock decline in the Russell 3000 was a drop of 32% from its 52-week highs. Equally alarming, companies in the 10th decile within the Russell 3000 had experienced an average decline of nearly 70% from their 52-week high. …

… For the remainder of the report:

Brutal Stock Deterioration: 46 Percent of Nasdaq Stocks Are More than 50 Percent Below their 52-Week High

end

4.OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES

ANDREW MAGUIRE..IN THE VAULT 61

Morand’s interview with Maguire is 32 minutes long and can be seen at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@ATA.org

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/AVOCADO

end

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.3580

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3603

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 350.09 PTS OR 1.41%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 616.49 PTS OR 2.23%

3. Europe stocks ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 96.13/Euro RISES TO 1.13333-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.218/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 115.38/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 92.54 and Brent: 93.66–

3f Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN// OFF- SHORE DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.0.233%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 1.91% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 1.17%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.68: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.59

3k Gold at $1854.20 silver at: 23.71 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 7/100 in roubles/dollar AT 76.72

3m oil into the 92 dollar handle for WTI and 93 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 115.38 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9252– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0477well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.955 UP 1 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.252 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.56

Global Markets Slide On Mounting Ukraine Tensions

MONDAY, FEB 14, 2022 – 07:51 AM

US index futures and global stocks extended their Friday losses on Monday, as worries about growing geopolitical conflict in Ukraine sparked concerns about global economic growth and adding to concerns about inflation and the prospect of aggressive Fed rate hikes to tame it. Nasdaq futures were down 1.2% by 715 a.m. ET after earlier sliding as much as 1.5%. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.8%, setting up the benchmark U.S. index to fall further from a two-week low reached on Friday. Treasury yields dropped further from a multi-year high hit on Friday and gold rose, while bitcoin extended its sharp decline from Friday. Focal points Monday include comments by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard at 8:30am ET.

Airline stocks slid in premarket trading, following European peers lower, as growing concerns about geopolitical risks over Ukraine ripple through global markets. Lockheed Martin Corp. scrapped its bid to buy Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc. after the Federal Trade Commission sued to block the deal. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Expensive growth stocks, which stand to suffer the most from higher interest rates, also tumbled with Apple, Nvidia, Tesla and Microsoft Corp leading the drop: Apple (AAPL US) -1.4% in premarket; Nvidia (NVDA US), -2.6%, Tesla (TSLA US) -2.3%.
Shares in software company Splunk (SPLK US) rose 3% to $118 in U.S. premarket trading after reports that Cisco Systems held discussions about acquiring the firm, although the talks subsequently fell apart.
U.S.-listed Chinese stocks slumped in premarket trading Monday, putting them on track to slump for a third consecutive session as geopolitical tensions over Ukraine weigh on risk-assets globally. Large-cap technology stocks are leading the decline this morning with Alibaba -1.8%, JD.com -1.5%, Pinduoduo -2.6%, NetEase -1.1% and Baidu -2.3%. Chinese EV makers are also lower with Nio -3.7%, XPeng -2.8% and Li Auto -2.8%.

Global equity markets have been roiled this year by worries over potential aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve as well as escalating tensions in Ukraine. The U.S. has warned an invasion may be imminent, although Russian officials have repeatedly denied there are plans to do so and a diplomatic push to try to resolve the situation is continuing, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz traveling to Kyiv, a day before heading to Moscow.

“Markets are continuing their move lower as investors grapple with a growing number of unknowns in the short term,” said Marcus Morris-Eyton, a portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors. “While the news flow surrounding Russia and Ukraine appears increasingly worrying, in reality any outcome and the impact are close to impossible to forecast.”

As reported previously, late on Friday Goldman strategists cut their forecast for the S&P 500 by year-end to 4,900, down from 5,100, on the prospect of aggressive Fed rate hikes.

That still implies 11% growth above current levels to a fresh record. If inflation remains high and prompts more hikes than expected, the index would decline by 12% to 3,900, or even 3,600.

European stocks slumped after gapping lower following Friday’s late U.S.-stock selloff sparked by perceived Russian threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty. European natural gas prices jumped and oil fluctuated, while government bonds surged and haven currencies outperformed.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 falls 2.5%, FTSE 100 -2%, FTSE MIB lags, dropping more than 3% with travel leisure, and autos stocks leading the declines although all European sectors were in the red. Banks were also among the biggest declines in Europe, surrendering their place as the region’s best-performing sector of 2022 to energy. Among individual movers, Clariant AG tumbled 17% as it delayed publishing full-year results amid an investigation into its accounting. Here are some of the other big European movers today:

Audioboom shares jumped as much as 22%, the most intraday since April 2020, amid reports that Amazon.com and Spotify Technology are exploring bids and may decide on formal offers for the podcasting group as soon as this month.
Barco gains as much as 3.2% as analysts at ING and KBC Securities upgrade ratings on the Belgian imaging technology company, citing strong order momentum.
Snam shares rise as much as 1.8% after an upgrade. Citi upgrades Terna to buy, Snam and Italgas to neutral, saying “unjustified” YTD weakness offers chance to invest in these “unique rates protected assets.”
Banking shares are among the worst performers in Europe, as markets retreat broadly on Ukraine tensions, with Raiffeisen Bank down 9.2%, most since May 2020
Banco BPM declined as much as 7% after CEO Giuseppe Castagna said over the weekend he hasn’t received any communication from UniCredit in response to reports that the lender is considering a bid for Banco BPM.
Commerzbank shares fall as much as 7.7% in Frankfurt after the German government said it will take the interests of taxpayers as well as the importance of Commerzbank for the country’s so-called Mittelstand when deciding about its stakeholding in the bank, Handelsblatt cites Finance Minister Christian Lindner as saying in an interview.
European carriers took further steps to avoid Ukraine, while airline shares sank after tension mounted over the weekend over Russia’s troop buildup on the border. Shares of Hungary’s Wizz Air Holdings Plc slid as much as 11%, the biggest drop since November, to lead a decline in European airline stocks.

European natural gas prices jumped with storage facilities running low and concern over any disruption to supply from Russia, the continent’s top source. Oil fluctuated after an earlier rally put $100 a barrel in sight. Russia is a major producer of metals such as aluminum and nickel; it accounts for about 40% of palladium, used in catalytic converters. Russia and Ukraine also account for nearly a third of wheat and barley exports, and wheat continued to advance Monday.

“The impact on inflation will go beyond oil and gas,” said Wai Ho Leong, strategist at Modular Asset Management in Singapore. “For the rest of the world, it is potentially a massive food shock.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for their steepest slump in two weeks amid inflation concerns and escalating tensions surrounding Ukraine. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost as much as 1.5%, with information-technology and consumer-discretionary shares contributing most to the drop. Chip giant TSMC, China’s Alibaba Group and automaker Toyota weighed most on the gauge. Energy shares bucked the trend after crude oil rose past $95 a barrel, as the standoff between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine headed into a tense week. Higher fuel costs added to concerns that the Federal Reserve will aggressively raise interest rates to cool U.S. inflation that’s at a four-decade high. “To see a turnaround in equities, we first need to see signs of easing concern over Ukraine,” said Shogo Maekawa, a strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management in Tokyo. “We’re in a situation where it’s hard to buy technology shares, and at the same time, it’s kind of hard to buy up cyclical shares.” India and Japan were among Monday’s worst performers, while shares in the Philippines and Australia rose. Asia’s stock benchmark is down by more than 2% this year, after dropping 3.4% in 2021.

Japanese equities tumbled following a three-day weekend, as the market moved to catch up with Friday’s selloff in global stocks amid concerns about U.S. inflation and Russia-Ukraine tensions. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 1.6%, the most since Jan. 27. Fast Retailing and SoftBank Group were the largest contributors to a 2.2% loss in the Nikkei 225. The yen was little changed after gaining 0.5% against the dollar Friday. “If Russia invades Ukraine, it won’t be just risk premiums rising in the stock market, but it’ll boost risks of seeing higher grain and energy prices,” said Shoji Hirakawa, chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Institute. “And if energy prices rise, worry over U.S. inflation, which the market had been thinking will ease after February, will be reignited again.”

Indian stocks were the worst performers among Asian peers on Monday, as higher crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on the risk appetite in the region. The S&P BSE Sensex plunged 3%, its biggest drop since April 2021, to 56,405.84 in Mumbai. The gauge is down 8.7% from its record high touched in October. The NSE Nifty 50 Index dropped 3.1%, while a measure of swings in local stocks climbed to its highest level in nine months. Lenders were among the biggest drags on the key indexes, led by ICICI Bank, which fell 4.7%. All but one of 30 Sensex stocks slipped in the red. Each of the 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a measure of realty companies. “Geo-political tension and the rising crude prices are weighing on investors’ sentiments leading to a sharp rise in volatility,” said Naveen Kulkarni, chief investment officer at Mumbai-based Axis Securities. “We believe that the expected increase in volatility should be used by investors to build positions in quality large-cap and midcap stocks as the earning expectations for Indian corporates remain strong.” An index of small-cap stocks fell 4.2% to its lowest level in nearly five months. The price of Brent crude, a major import for India, has climbed more than 20% since the end of 2021. Tensions over Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine remains a dampener. In earnings, of the 47 Nifty 50 companies that have reported quarterly numbers so far, 27 either met or exceeded analysts’ estimates, 18 missed and two can’t be compared.

Australian stocks bucked the global downward momentum and advanced as banks, energy shares climb: the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.4% to close at 7,243.90, supported by banks and energy stocks. Beach Energy was the biggest gainer after reiterating its full-year output forecast. Novonix was the worst performer, declining for a third day. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 1.8% to 11,950.14.

In rates, after sliding sharply last week and hitting a multi-year high of 2.07%, Treasuries advanced from the belly out to long-end of the curve, although futures sit just off best levels reached over European session. Treasury yields richer by up to 2bp across belly of the curve, flattening both 2s10s, 2s5s spreads by over 2bp with front-end underperforming as 2-year yields rise 1bp; bunds outperform by 6bp in the sector, catching up to Friday’s price action during final few hours of U.S. session. In Europe, bund curve bull flattens with 2s10s narrowing 1.7bps as geopolitical tensions boost haven bids and belly outperforming. Gilts curves also bull flatten, short-end Treasury yields climb. Peripheral spreads widen to the core.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index rises ~0.2%. JPY and CHF are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, SEK and NOK underperform.

Crude futures are steady after struggling to hold on to gains. WTI drifts 0.1% higher to trade near $93.21 a barrel. Most base metals trade in the green; LME nickel rises 1.9%, outperforming peers. LME copper lags. Spot gold little changed at $1,857/oz. European energy prices jump more than 10% on mounting tensions over Ukraine.

There is nothing on today’s economic calendar. Today we also get the Fed’s Closed Board Meeting, Fed’s Bullard speaks again on CNBC, ECB’s Lagarde aldo speaks and we have a German-Ukrainian meeting.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 4,373.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 2.5% to 458.05
MXAP down 1.4% to 187.80
MXAPJ down 1.5% to 615.43
Nikkei down 2.2% to 27,079.59
Topix down 1.6% to 1,930.65
Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 24,556.57
Shanghai Composite down 1.0% to 3,428.88
Sensex down 2.8% to 56,512.67
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,243.91
Kospi down 1.6% to 2,704.48
German 10Y yield little changed at 0.21%
Euro down 0.3% to $1.1320
Brent Futures up 0.2% to $94.61/bbl
Brent Futures up 0.2% to $94.62/bbl
Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,855.14
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.14% to 96.22

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to Kyiv on Monday, a day before heading to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a diplomatic push to resolve tensions over Ukraine
European natural gas and electricity prices jumped more than 10% after the U.S. said Russia could soon invade Ukraine or try to spark conflict inside its borders
Senator Joe Manchin said the Federal Reserve needs to “stop pussyfooting around” and “tackle inflation head-on,” renewing his call for the central bank to act against the fastest pace of price increases since the early 1980s
When the market turns risk averse, the yen showcases its haven status and the pound’s higher beta doesn’t translate into costlier hedging costs by comparison. The term structures in the major currencies are inverted due to geopolitical risks and elevated rates volatility at the back of central banks’ tightening bias

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

European bourses are pressured across the board as geopolitics exacerbates a subdued APAC handover and soft end to the US week. Sectors are all in the red; Travel & Leisure and Banking names lag on Ukraine and yields respectively while Oil & Gas is somewhat cushioned via initial crude benchmark pricing. Fed Closed Board Meeting, Fed’s Bullard, ECB’s Lagarde, German-Ukrainian meeting; earnings from Michelin.

Top Asian News

Hong Kong Finds 4,500 Preliminary Positive Covid Cases
Ambani’s Jio Plans Satellite Broadband Rivaling SpaceX, OneWeb
Sumitomo Mitsui Is Said to Weigh Increasing Stake in Rizal Bank
India Takes Aim at China’s Trade Actions Against Australia

Asian stocks traded mostly lower with the region cautious following the sell-off on Wall Street. Nikkei 225 slumped at the open as it played catch-up following its long weekend. ASX 200 bucked the trend as the index was supported by its commodity names. Hang Seng was pressured as daily COVID cases in Hong Kong continue picking up in pace. Shanghai Comp. saw its losses somewhat cushioned amid continued speculation that the PBoC could further ease its monetary policy soon.

Top European News

Scholz Travels to Kyiv Ahead of Putin Visit: Ukraine Update
Rolls-Royce to Help Power Electric Planes as Soon as 2025
Clariant Slumps After Delaying Results Amid Whistleblower Probe
Russian Stocks Sink on Ukrainian Tensions; Ruble Steadies

In FX, dollar in demand alongside fellow safe haven currencies as investors fret about a Russian attack on Ukraine. Yen on the brink of breaching 115.00 in advance of Japanese GDP data and Franc firm following a pickup in Swiss produce and import prices. Euro and Pound vulnerable after losing a string of technical support levels. Rouble volatile and Hryvnia heavy amidst heightened geopolitical tensions and Lira hit by ratings cut by Fitch Turkish Finance Minister announced new economic policies which covers new loans, inflation and gold savings. Turkey reduced VAT on staple foods to 1% from 8%, according to President Erdogan. Fitch cuts Turkey’s rating to B+ from BB-; outlook negative.

In commodities, crude benchmarks are essentially unchanged as initial geopolitical premia was offset by a deterioration in broader risk sentiment, as the Russia/Ukraine situation remains tense. Technically, Brent held touted support at the USD 93.60/bbl mark (current low 93.69) while any renewed upside faces Fibonacci resistance at USD 97.26/bbl (current high 96.16). Saudi crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman said around 4% of Aramco (valued at around USD 80bln) will be transferred to the Public Investment Fund, according to an official statement. IEA’s Birol hopes that OPEC+ can close the space between actions and words, via Reuters citing state TV Spot gold and silver benefit from haven demand that has spurred the yellow-metal above the USD 1850/oz mark, with technicians noting that we have now eclipsed a weekly downtrend line Chinese Vice Premier said China is to effectively expand the production of soybean, via state media. US government has suspended all imports of Mexican avocados after a US plant safety inspector in Mexico received a threat, according to Yahoo.

US Event Calendar

Nothing major scheduled

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Valentine’s Day to all my readers. The card to all of you should be in the post. It’s half term here in the UK and in other places so liquidity will be under some pressure which given the market now has to ramp up its attention on the situation in Ukraine, as well as thinking about rising interest rates, means that we won’t be able to relax after last week’s high octane events. All I know is however bad this week gets in markets my life in front of screens will be far less stressful than for my wife looking after 3 energetic kids on half term. Revenge will be coming my way in the Easter holidays.

As discussed at the top, our survey that closed before the late Friday news that the US warned of a Russia attack on Ukraine as early as this week, showed that only 7% thought that this situation would be a major influence on markets in 2 months’ time. So it’s clear that few were/are positioned with this risk front of mind. The weekend news hasn’t moved the story on much with a Biden/Putin call seemingly not creating any major headlines one way or another. The stand-off continues.

We’ll review last week at the end but as you’ll see 10yr USTs rallied 12bps immediately on the news to 1.91% before closing at 1.937%, having traded at 2.06% when Europe closed for the weekend. We’re at 1.956% in Asia, up by +1.9 bps as I type with Brent crude futures +1.25% to $95.62/bbl and WTI futures +1.45% to $94.45/bbl. Equity futures in the US are looking a bit more positive with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.30%) and Nasdaq (+0.27%) both in the green as nothing has escalated further over the weekend. Meanwhile Asian markets are catching down with the late Friday sell-off with the Nikkei (-2.15%), Kospi (-1.62%), Shanghai Comp (-0.63%) and the Hang Seng (-1.25%) moving lower.

The problem for the bond market is similar to that seen with the Omicron escalation around Thanksgiving. Back then the market was saying how on earth can the Fed think about hiking with a new variant around. This led to a bad set up in fixed income markets as Treasuries rallied to 1.35% against all the inflationary evidence. The obvious trade for many now is also a flight to quality but will a Ukraine conflict solve the inflation problem (e.g. oil and gas problems) and will it prevent central banks from hiking? In addition what if it never escalates any further? So it’s fair to say that trading this is not going to be easy. No-one has special insight so a bit of luck on timing and views will be needed. I wouldn’t change my structural view of stickier than expected inflation and the urgent need for central bank hikes, especially in the US.

So we wait to see what happens.

It’s actually a quieter week in terms of scheduled releases with the FOMC minutes on Wednesday a clear highlight. However remember it will pre-date a 7.5% CPI print. Having said that the minutes published in the first week of January brought QT bang into the spotlight and started the rates sell-off so there is always room for surprises and remember that at the January FOMC press conference, Powell did suggest that the committee had held detailed discussion on the balance sheet so we may learn more.

Fed speak might be the most market moving event outside of Ukraine. St Louis Fed President Bullard’s comments on Thursday where he got markets excited about a inter meeting hike certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons before other governors walked down the risks. Bullard will speak again in the US morning on CNBC so it’ll be interesting if he also walks back his comments. There’s plenty of other Fed speakers through the week. In addition, ECB President Lagarde speaks today.

On the data front, there’ll be further US releases for January coming out, including producer price inflation, as well as retail sales, industrial production (all Wednesday), housing starts and building permits (Thursday). PPI and retail sales undoubtedly the pick.

Elsewhere, the UK CPI release on Wednesday will be in focus as well, and we’ll get earnings from a further 62 companies in the S&P 500 and 68 in the Stoxx 600 as earnings season winds down. Among the highlights over the coming week include Airbnb tomorrow. Then on Wednesday we’ll hear from Nvidia, Cisco Systems, Applied Materials and AIG. Then on Thursday, there’s releases from Walmart, Nestle and Airbus. Finally on Friday, releases include Hermès International, Deere & Company, Allianz and NatWest Group.

Otherwise this week, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will be meeting on Thursday and Friday.

Turning to review another tumultuous week now.

Up until the last few hours of trading Friday, the main event was the US CPI data. Consumer prices beat expectations by rising 7.5% YoY in January, a four-decade high, with notable beats in persistent inflation categories such as rents and medical services.

As a result, markets aggressively repriced their expectations for Fed tightening this year, with a +50bp liftoff (in line with our US econ team’s new call), ending the week at a 53% probability, and 6.3 hikes priced through 2022, up from a 40% chance and 5.4 hikes the week before. We peaked out at 6.88 hikes earlier in the day on Friday before the Ukraine headlines.

There was a lot of fuel added to the fire in the week. St. Louis Fed President Bullard, a voter this year, openly considered whether the Fed should hike rates before the March meeting, which temporarily had markets pricing in some chance of an intermeeting February rate hike and 100% probability of a +50bp rate hike in March, though pricing returned from those highs after other regional Presidents questioned the wisdom of such a move and Friday’s geopolitical headlines.

All told, 2yr Treasury yields increased an historic +21.4bps on Thursday following the CPI data, and +19.0bps on the week (-7.9bps Friday). 10yr Treasury yields broke the 2.0% threshold for the first time since summer 2019, hitting a peak of 2.06% before the late Friday (-9.2bps on the day) rally that saw it close at 1.937% and “only” +2.9bps on the week.

Given the predictive power of the 2s10s curve it was worrying that it ended the week at 42.5bps (declining -16.8bps this week, -1.9bps Friday), the lowest since August 2020.

Oil spiked a couple of dollars on the late Ukraine news (+3.6% Friday) but was up a more measured +1.72% on the week. European natural gas prices took a leg higher following the news, increasing +4.39% on Friday, but were down -6.09% on the week.

The headlines concerning Russia came after Europe closed so 10yr bund yields advanced +9.1bps on the week (+1.3bps Friday), and managed to maintain a run that has seen them climb on 13 of the last 14 days. Today might be a tough day to maintain that momentum.

President Lagarde also offered resolute support for the periphery in a speech last week, emphasising the ECB had the means and intentions to ensure policy was transmitted to all members. Nevertheless, 10yr BTP and Greek sovereign debt widened +11.3bps (+4.8bps Friday) and +27.0bps (+6.0bps Friday) versus 10yr bunds, respectively.

The suite of drivers did not create an appetising cocktail for risk assets, and the S&P 500 finished the week -1.82% lower (-1.90% Friday), with all but two sectors in the red. The NASDAQ and FANG stocks underperformed, falling -2.18% (-2.78% Friday) and -3.17% (-3.39% Friday), respectively. European stocks held up much better, but managed to miss the worst geopolitical headlines, with the STOXX 600 +1.61% higher on the week (-0.59% Friday) with European banks performing particularly well, up +4.08% (-1.20% Friday).

Credit spreads widened on the week but this was relatively contained even with a few wobbles, especially around the CPI. Itraxx Main was +1.9bps wider (+2.3bps Friday), while Xover was +11.0bps wider (+12.2bps Friday). In the US, IG CDX was +4.2bps wider (+2.3bps Friday) while HY widened +13.5bp (+9.2bp Friday). Cash index spreads were similar with $IG spreads +1bps wider over the course of the last week (+2bps Friday), while €IG spreads were +6bps wider (+2bps Friday), and £IG spreads were -2bps tighter despite spreads widening +2bps Friday. High yield spreads diverged similarly with $HY spreads +10bps wider on the week (+22bps wider Friday), while €HY spreads were +12bps wider (+7bps Friday). Obviously US markets were still open when the Russia/Ukraine story broke.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE/COVID MANDATES//REVOLT

Revolt in Paris over the weekend

(zerohedge)

“QR Code, Never Again!” – Police Fire Teargas At Demonstrators As Freedom Convoy Enters Paris

SATURDAY, FEB 12, 2022 – 11:35 AM

Update (1135ET): Chaos ensues in Paris Saturday as hundreds, if not thousands of demonstrators blocked streets in the capital city.

NYTimes said, “thousands of cars, camper vans and trucks” have entered the metro area, which was part of a convoy to protest President Emmanuel Macron’s medical tyranny of lockdowns and forced vaccines mandates.

This weekend, protests are banned in the city as more than 7,000 police officers were deployed to counter the “Freedom Convoy.”

Officers had set up checkpoints at several of the main entrances to Paris on the road that surrounds the city, known as the Boulevard Périphérique. That prevented many demonstrators from entering.
But small clusters of protesters who managed to get past the checkpoints gathered at several places in the city, honking their cars and waving French flags. Some joined up with the anti-vaccine-pass marches that had been held on most weekends in Paris but had waned in recent months.
The different convoys, which had started out in cities like Nice, Brest, Lille and elsewhere, appear to be only loosely coordinated on social media and on instant messaging platforms. -NYTimes

Demonstrators in central Paris have so far been peaceful. People waved French and Canadian flags and chanted: “QR code, never again!” “Freedom!” “No to the vaccine pass!”

Scenes on the ground show one convoy stopped before the Arc de Triomphe as freedom-loving folks waved French flags.

Police began tear-gassing demonstrators.

More scenes from the Arc de Triomphe.

Police used cranes to remove vehicles blocking streets.

Authorities were very well prepared to handle demonstrators.

Police used armored vehicle carriers to prevent some convoys from entering downtown.

Thousands of demonstrators were seen on the streets of central Paris protesting against medical tyranny by the government.

Roads are being blocked in Paris.

A lot of other demonstrators walked the streets.

According to TomTom traffic data, major delays are seen in and around Paris.

The success of Canada’s Freedom Convoy in recent weeks has spread like wildfire worldwide as people band together and use their vehicles to block highways, city streets, and border-crossings, as they create leverage against overreaching governments who may have to appease the people and be forced to drop vaccine mandates.

Watch Live: Convoys Worldwide

* * *

French protesters are expected to descend on Paris in a Canada-inspired “Freedom Convoy” sometime on Friday as they voice strong opposition to President Emmanuel Macron’s medical tyranny of lockdowns and forced vaccines mandates.

According to the Guardian, authorities in and around France’s capital have placed more than 7,000 officers on alert and at critical points of the city to deter convoys of trucks, cars, and vans.

“The stated objective of these demonstrations is to ‘block the capital’ by preventing road traffic from circulating in order to further their demands … from Friday, before moving on to Brussels on Monday,” Paris’ police authority said.

“Because of the risk to public order, these protests will be banned from 11 to 14 February,” police said, adding that anyone blocking public roads will face severe fines and jail time.

The Guardian reports convoys of trucks, vans, cars, and even motorcycles left Nice in the south-east, Bayonne in the south-west, Strasbourg in the north-east, and Cherbourg in the north-west, among other cities as they all head to Paris.

Video published on Twitter shows police in the French capital preparing for convoy by ensuring protesters didn’t paralyze the metro area.

More footage shows police erecting metal barriers around the metro area.

“We’ve been going around in circles for three years,” demonstrator Jean-Marie Azais, who was heading to Paris. “We saw the Canadians and said to ourselves, ‘It’s awesome what they’re doing.’ In eight days, boom, something was sparked.”

END

EUROPE/ENERGY PRICES

European energy prices skyrocket as western media hypes an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine

(zerohedge)

European Energy Prices Soar As Western Media Hypes Imminent Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

MONDAY, FEB 14, 2022 – 09:05 AM

European natural gas and electricity prices jumped as Western corporate media continued to drum up headlines of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine that could spark World War 3.

Benchmark European gas prices rose more than 10% to 84 euros a megawatt-hour, the highest in weeks. German power prices also moved higher.

Europe’s energy crunch is set to worsen if tensions in the region deteriorate. Russian gas supply is already low as storage facilities are well below average for this time of year (this means gas supplies will remain tight through spring). The risk of rolling blackouts across the continent increase if Russia cuts off gas to Europe.

“The immediate focus is on the potential for a disruption in Russian energy supplies to Europe, which would be very difficult to deal with, and could create a true energy shortage even beyond the challenge that we’re already seeing,” said Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “But before that, Europe was already in an energy crisis.”

According to monthly auction results on Monday, Russian supplier Gazprom PJSC didn’t book additional pipeline capacity for March to send gas to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipe. Gas flows through Ukraine into Europe are also far below contractual volumes.

On Monday, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, told attendees at a conference in Cairo that politicizing gas in Europe is not a good idea because it translates to higher prices for consumers. Already, the UK has capped energy prices for households to mitigate further soaring costs.

Also, Brent traded around $95 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded above $93. An unfolding crisis in Ukraine could push crude to $120 a barrel because of supply concerns.

“A Russian invasion could deliver a backlash from the West in the form of sanctions, which may put worldwide oil supply at risk. About 43% of Russia’s oil output, or about 4.5 million barrels a day, was exported in October 2021. Sanctions, if they were to occur, could shrink those outflows, giving OPEC+ member countries an opportunity to fill the supply gap. Yet, most OPEC+ members are already at high utilization, and any oil-supply deficit risks higher short-term prices, perhaps as high as $120 a barrel,” Bloomberg said.

Soaring energy prices are one thing that central bankers worldwide and especially in the West don’t need at the moment because it would force them to raise interest rates more aggressively and possibly trigger recessions.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

USA/RUSSIA

“You Cannot Make This S**t Up!” – Markets Reverse After Ukrainian Leader Says ‘Attack’ Comments Were “Irony”, Not Real

MONDAY, FEB 14, 2022 – 02:40 PM

Update (1435ET): As one veteran trader exclaimed over MSG: “You cannot make this fucking shit up!!!”

US markets reversed their earlier violent moves after comments from Ukrainian leader Zelenskiy about an attack on Wednesday were actually irony (remember he was a comedian) and not reality…

* * *

Algos have been set to stun on any Ukraine/Russia headline it would appear.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. is closing its embassy in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and relocating operations 340 miles west to Lviv near the Polish border, as allies warn that an attack by Russian forces on Ukraine may be imminent.

Additionally CBS reports that satellite images show Russian troops leaving assembly points and moving to attack positions.

Of course, there is no actual evidence of any of this… but, the double-whammy of headlines was enough to prompt hard selling in stocks (now that Europe is closed)…

And buying gold…

And bonds…

And a bid under crude oil also…

More propaganda?

So to summarize, Ukraine is talking down the war-fear rhetoric, Russia has said they are ending military exercises, and the US moves its embassy – a purely optical action – and leaks unsourced, no-evidence comments of satellite images showing movements in Russian troops… who exactly is trying to escalate panic here (or sparking false flag fears).

Moreover, the claim that US official intel has figured out that “Feb 16th will be the day of attack” is farcical.

end

The theatre of the absurd

Inbox

So much in MSM of the Biden call to Putin as if it has relevance. Supposedly, Biden declares:

According to a White House readout of the call, Biden warned Putin that the US and its allies would “respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia” in the event of an invasion, and that such military action would “diminish Russia’s standing” internationally. Biden, who has thus far ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine, said that should diplomacy fail, America is “equally prepared for other scenarios.”

Really? How about trying to ensure US assets are not destroyed, while all the time having Cookie Nuland and others plot some kind of false flag.

Poland has opened its’ border to Americans in Ukraine foregoing any advance notice. How come so little about the British discussion which has resulted in a ongoing withdrawal this weekend of British troops from the Ukraine? And why doesn’t MSM mention that Putin did a 2 hour call with Macron where he said he wants a independent Ukraine without NATO or US involvement? Does not the Ukraine want this too? Or is it reduced to a expendable proxy for American delusional war mongering? Every thinking person knows that militarily the US (and NATO) are impotent and Russia’s strategic ambivalence is what drives Washington crazy. Russia may decide to go all in, but in this case it is not going to be the failed nation of the Ukraine alone. Who said that Baltic States can not be “included” in the package? What about those nukes in countries like Romania? There are so many possibilities. As RT reports:

Should Russia take military action, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Saturday of a “resolute, massive and united trans-Atlantic response.” However, President Biden has thus far ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine, choosing instead to send thousands to Poland and Romania instead. Before speaking to Biden, Putin spoke to French President Emmanuel Macron by phone for nearly two hours. French officials told AFP that Putin wants an independent Ukraine that would remain out of the NATO alliance, something Western leaders have ruled out. Moscow has long insisted that NATO arms on its border would constitute an unacceptable security risk.

I find it amusing and sad to see the continuing nonsense about sanctions. Sanctions only matter if they hurt someone more than yourself. I suppose MSM does not report that Russia just did a $854 million deal with Argentina beating out Alstom on rail cars. The result the rail cars Alstom wanted to sell will now be sold to the Ukraine, who cannot pay. You decide who won this. Russia is not afraid of “sanctions” so it will continue to drill and the like and there can be no any military response by NATO because the only response the US can offer militarily is a nuclear one, but even the most ludicrous hawks in D.C. want to live, ( at least i hope so ) with the exception of several dozen total fanatics in US Admin and Congress. My guess is so called US “strategists” (Council on Foreign Relations, Atlantic Council, etc.) are one trick ponies, they developed a “strategy” which, as is always the case with bullies, was designed based on a faulty “understanding” of conflict and lack of knowledge of Russia, in the hope for an in bullying effect on Russia, for compliance.They couldn’t calculate consequences because they do not have situational awareness. Russia responded in kind and continues to show a very big stick (look at the drills), while speaking clearly to a dumb and deaf audience. And now as a result, the US is cornered and is in panic mode, because Russia’s military exercises are a very good demonstrator of a military capability which is excessive for a hypothetical “invasion” of the Ukraine but also sufficient to achieve much larger objectives. Soon there will be a 140 naval vessels in the Black Sea. And Washington doesn’t know what those objectives may be. They panic because they have no idea, as their plot is no more. Staying in the dark is extremely unpleasant when control is non existent.

For example, did you know that Russia’s budget breaks even at $44/ barrel? The Biden bunch hysteria is so good that it has driven oil up to $95 a barrel. So yes, more drills by Russia which cause a hysteria in D.C. is a great thing. Why invade when drills are better and everyone is better off? Except those delusional folks who have lost the plot. Each time they say invasion now and nothing happens they look like fools and confidence erodes. Things are so bad, that there is talk of Germany walking away from NATO and declaring neutrality. Macron has zero time for Biden and bunch and encourages French exporters to seek Euro’s over USD in trade.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/es/market-insights/latest-news/oil/041621-us-reliance-on-russian-oil-hits-record-high-despite-souring-ties

Milley called Gerasimov yesterday for a reason. Russia has enough forces to smash NATO in Eastern Europe without much effort. No NATO or US base or equipment in Eastern Europe is safe and he knows this. Russia can at will, destroy all military assets in the Baltic and cause a remake of those countries allowing their independence without weapons that threaten. Nor is Poland safe from having foreign assets on the ground destroyed. And adding to paratrooper numbers by sending some of the 82nd Airborne is pointless. Especially if they and the Poles enter Belarus to seize refineries and power stations as they will not leave there alive.

Nor are there many assets in the Pacific that are safe. In the past, i have explained how the Kuril Islands were reinforced with serious deterrents to both sea and air intrusions. Here is just one example:

MOSCOW, February 12. /TASS/. Russia has handed a note to US military attache in connection with the US nuclear-powered submarine’s incident in Russia’s waters near the Kuril Islands, the Defense Ministry said on Saturday. “On February 12, a representative of the office of the military attache for defense issues at the US Embassy in Moscow has been handed over a note at the Main Directorate of the International Military Cooperation of Russia’s Defense Ministry in connection with the violation of Russia’s state border by the US Navy’s submarine,” the statement said.

Submarines in the exercise areas are nothing new, Russia, US, UK do this all the time, what is new is that this one was detected and tracked within Russia’s territorial waters. Russia has some new tech that is not yet public.

According to the ministry, a Virginia-class submarine belonging to the US Navy was detected on February 12, 2022 at 10.40 (Moscow Time) in the area of the Pacific Fleet’s drills near Iturup Island of the Kuril Islands. Under the guiding documents on protection of the Russian state border in the underwater environment, the crew of the Pacific Fleet’s frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov used appropriate means. The US submarine started a self-propelled simulator to split the target image on radar and acoustic control means into two parts and retreated from Russian territorial waters at a maximum speed, the ministry said.

And this very public move by Russia was also done for a reason–to demonstrate that there are enough forces to deal with any threat. Russia plans to start the exercises of a nuclear triad pretty soon too (in Russian). So, a lot of firepower on display.

We can be sure oil prices are headed higher and aspirin sales are increasing with spare underwear supplies as hysteria grips every move or non move taken by Russia as the D.C bunch watches itself become more irrelevant day by day as the sun sets on American influence in Europe and elsewhere. As for the Middle East, it is lost. Yes, a nuclear deal will be signed and my guess is within 90 days of that, the Irans will announce they have nuclear warheads for their newly announced missiles and America has seen its’ sunset on Middle East influence. And with this will come a curtailment of sales of military hardware which will have deep ramifications on a bloated feeding trough.

America must step back, rebuild and renew itself to move forward to have continued hegemony, otherwise it will face the dustbin of history as a failed empire. The time is short but there is still time. Because to see America fail will be a global travesty and a dark time for human history as mangy dogs fight for pieces being left behind. Who can forget Afghanistan?

end

Since Washington Wants War So Badly Why Doesn’t Washington Simply Attack Russia? – PaulCraigRoberts.org

Inbox

With the US telling the world that Putin will invade this week; while Putin is undoubtedly more inclined to keep the mystery going. He has won insofar as the West is abandoning Ukraine. Even Zelensky is challenging the US and others to show proof of a Russian invasion this week! Who controls the fate of the world ? Are the politicians even capable of situational awareness or are they following a agenda of globalists and foreign influence? Can anyone explain why China supplies the chemicals that allows Mexican cartels to make drugs to kill people? These drugs are rampant in North America with people dying daily. Even if Putin enters Ukraine, he will most likely stop by taking the East which is predominantly Russian in ethnically. The likelihood of him bombing Kyiv does not appear to be very high. And the noise about insurance being cancelled for flights into the Ukraine will hurt who? Perhaps making people believe that this is war zone this week. Time is on the side of Putin and he has proven to Ukraine and its’ people that the West is not about to defend them and that NATO is weak. Putin has achieved his goal – the West ran with its’ tail between its legs. As all it has is PR and not real force. And this is not lost on other countries.

If the West dared to try to remove Russia from SWIFT, we are looking at an incredible rise in commodities and expanding the shortages. Even car production is dependent upon metals like platinum, which come from Russia. Energy prices will rise sharply in Europe, and I do not see how Germany can afford to turn off the gas from Russia. This is one giant mess and it seems that either these morons are intentionally slapping Putin in the face and begging for him to invade so they can escape the COVID nightmare they have created, or we truly have the most unqualified group of world leaders in all recorded history. The EU is on its’ last legs as far as the Euro goes in terms of endless debt creation. And where that goes is really an unknown but the window of time is closing quickly causing real desperation as the narrative of the WEF falls flat and fails. Leaving politicians holding the bag of failure.

The reality is that there is panic in the West ( globalist club, think WEF and their spawn) withdrawing from Ukraine and the wealthy in Ukraine rushing to get their capital out to the USA for safe-keeping. Does this capital flow not help the USD ? All Putin has to do is sit back and watch the West collapse further and he is very smart. Why invade and allow the West to escape COVID consequences, using Russia as cover? Believe me, the Russian model is full of corruption and crooked oligarchies and with Putin enriching himself. Sadly, how different this is from what the West has become is really tragic. As wealthy Ukrainians flow their wealth out from the Ukraine, they weaken themselves from ongoing control of economic sectors allowing new capital too enter with a prospect of return. Zelensky understands he needs to break the control they have to have any chance of changing the narrative and direction. And their capital flow now, will not doubt entice them to run to London in the end with their loot into welcoming arms like many parties before them. This opportunity will enable the likes of China,Turkey and Russia and perhaps western capital to create some much needed prosperity in a country which has stagnated for decades. And if so, a failed state which is much like a 3rd world country will have a opportunity to grow and leave miserable conditions behind.

Rome fell because of internal weakness and the Barbarians could smell the weakness which drove them to sack Rome. Today, we have the same situation in the West. Thus the West will fall; it has at best 10 years remaining, unless we change the course and path we have been on. There is a desperate need to regroup, rethink and rebuild while the time still allows. And that also means no elitist control of this agenda which is not for our personal gain as the public. The true state of public well being has been waning for some time. The upcoming changes will be frightening to many people but we will succeed in creating a new path forward as our brother’s brother and not their keeper. The WOKE movement is dividing and weakening as the curtain lifts on the likes of Trudeau and his minions doing the bidding of the WEF. Day by day the divide between ordinary Canadians and this group within government grows with rising public numbers. What the truckers have started is becoming a decentralized Grassroots Movement. Yesterday, I personally saw how the police are being used to counter protests. Such tactics always fail and enthusiasm was not there with the police in what they were doing.

However, there is future drama coming that should be anticipated. The other day i wrote about upcoming Russian nuclear exercises which will not doubt be fearsome and taken advantage of by delusional actors. Previously i have on occasion written that the delusional bunch is all about PR and not the substance they and their handlers want to see in their hands. What they want is control of the nuclear weapons which currently they do not have. Cheyenne Mountain is closed and not open to them. And thus, while they can threaten all they want they cannot back up their threats without this control. This is the battle, that this all is leading up to. Watch the drama unfold in coming days and weeks because we will no doubt see a near death moment before it is all done and is over. Because Russia knows this as well and it is not in their Interest if this bunch gains control. Just like it is not in their interest to conduct a massive invasion of the Ukraine and bail out the mess it is.

Since Washington Wants War So Badly Why Doesn’t Washington Simply Attack Russia?

end

Act 2 of the theatre of the absurd

Inbox

It was really a confirmation of how nuts, reality is with the delusional bunch as Pelosi dropped the reality over the weekend in a interview. Sanctions have worked if no invasion happens. It does not matter if there was no planned invasion. This was the essence of she said. Only this crowd would take credit for solving a non existent threat.
If Russia wanted to invade the Ukraine they could do so and there is nothing the US or NATO or any participant of NATO could do. They could take their time as there is no way there is appetite for a fight by the people of Europe nor America. The only ones desperate for a chance at sure death are those fanatics who lust for destruction thinking they are safe.
Read the rather starling writing where it is clear that the US has fallen way behind Russia and is falling behind China.
>
> https://www.ndia.org/-/media/vital-signs/2022/vital-signs_2022_final.ashx

Roadways for change have been planned as today 2 different proposals went to the Russian Duma for consideration and approval as draft Resolutions to recognize Luhansk and Donetsk as Independent states. Once adopted Russian Troops will be invited to protect them from Ukrainian attack.
Over the weekend 20 planes left the Ukraine filled with MP’s and the like along with many private planes of Oligarchs, as it is clear a exodus of anyone with a hand in the cookie jar decided to bail early. Did you know that that panic stricken Zelensky invited Biden to fly into Kiev in coming days. This is simply hilarious. It appears even this comic got the message and has started to understand the game that he and his country are disposable pawns of the likes of Cookie Nuland having no sovereignty since all strings are pulled by the DC bunch. It’s also why Zelensky is at odds with DC over so called imminent invasion.
One does wonder if other disposable vassals might smell coffee and wake up? However, this leads to the question and very real danger of a FALSE FLAG event. And should this occur it will be blamed on Russia. This too is quite clear.
Tomorrow the Germans are in Moscow and it will be interesting to see where they net out on sovereignty.
Stay tuned for Act 3.

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE

EU/REUTERS/MAIN STREAM MEDIA:

EU investigates reports of menstrual disorders after mRNA COVID shots

Feb 11 (Reuters) – The European Medicines Agency’s safety committee said on Friday it was reviewing reports of heavy menstrual bleeding and absence of menstruation from women who had received COVID vaccines from Pfizer (PFE.N)/BioNTech (22UAy.DE)and Moderna (MRNA.O).

The assessment was in view of reports of menstrual disorders after receiving either of the two vaccines, both based on messenger RNA technology, and it was not yet clear whether there was a causal link, the agency said.

It was not yet clear whether there was a causal link between the vaccines and the reports, the agency said.

Menstrual disorders can occur due to a range of underlying medical conditions as well as from stress and tiredness, the EMA said, adding that cases of such disorders had also been reported following COVID-19 infection.

Vaccination against COVID-19 was linked with a small, temporary change in menstrual cycle length, according to a recent study funded by the National Institutes of Health, which collected data from nearly 4,000 users of a smartphone app that tracks menstrual cycles.

But the EMA said in December it had not established a link between changes in menstrual cycles and COVID-19 vaccines, after a study in Norway suggested some women had heavier periods after being inoculated. read more

After reviewing the available evidence, the EMA’s Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) said it decided to request an evaluation of all available data, including reports from patients and healthcare professionals, clinical trials and the published literature.

The agency on Friday added that there was also no evidence to suggest that COVID-19 vaccines affected fertility.

end

CANADA/CONVOY

Police remove freedom convoy protesters from Ambassador Bridge. However these guys are going to over places

(zerohedge)

Canadian Police Arrive To “Remove” Freedom Convoy Protesters From Ambassador Bridge

SATURDAY, FEB 12, 2022 – 10:59 AM

Following Friday’s ‘state of emergency’ declaration in Ontario, which empower police to finally clear the protesters blocking the Ambassador Bridge (of course, the Canadian government could have just rolled back the COVID restrictions that inspired the protests to begin with, although Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has used some truly bizarre rhetoric in its defense), Canadian police have moved in early Saturday to start making arrests and breaking the protest.

Protesters at the busiest land crossing between the US and Canada staunchly remained overnight despite the threats of violence from the Canadian government. The blockade has forced auto makers in the US to shutter production due to a shortage of parts (while some have been forced to fly parts across the border).

According to the AP, a city bus and school bus with the police arrived on scene Saturday morning, and officers got in formation to start clearing out the protesters.

A city bus and school bus arrived at the scene Saturday morning and police moved in formation toward them. But the protesters remained defiant.

Windsor police immediately warned that anyone blocking the streets could be subject to arrest and their vehicles could be seized.
The news was met earlier with defiance by protesters.
At the Ambassador Bridge, an unidentified person grabbed a microphone and addressed the crowd, asking if they wanted to stay or leave when the deadline rolled around. By a show of applause, it was agreed they would stay. “OK,” the man said. “Let’s stand tall.” The protesters responded by singing the Canadian national anthem.

Using a megaphone, one of the protesters alerted the others that police were coming for the demonstrators. Video of the situation quickly made its way online courtesy of @JackPosobiec.

Meanwhile, the police tweeted the following message: “The Windsor Police & its policing partners have commenced enforcement at and near the Ambassador Bridge. We urge all demonstrators to act lawfully & peacefully. Commuters are still being asked to avoid the areas affected by the demonstrations at this time.”

A judge on Friday ordered the protesters to clear the bridge, but an injunction issued b Chief Justice Geoffrey Morawetz of the Ontario Superior Court gave them until 1900ET on Friday to clear out. But the deadline came and went without any movement by the protesters.

On Friday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford declared a state of emergency in the province that will allow his cabinet to impose $100,000 fines and up to one year in jail as punishments against anybody blocking roads, bridges or other infrastructure.

As we have pointed out before, the “Freedom Convoy” protests in Canada have spread to three distinct border areas.

After initially being blocked by the police, reporters with Rebel News have managed to get through and join MSM reporters in covering the showdown between the protesters and the police.

As a reminder, Canada sends 75% of its exports to the US, and the bridge usually handles 8,000 trucks a day, representing a quarter of all cross-border trade, or about C$500 million ($392.56 million) per day. About C$100 million worth of auto parts cross the border each day, according to Reuters.

But trade isn’t the only factor: PM Trudeau has ulterior motives for wanting to crush the protesters and keep his mandates in place.

Despite the fact that Canadians are already among the most heavily vaxxed people on Earth.

But tell us again why mask mandates and other restrictions are necessary to prevent…more mask mandates and restrictions?

END

Bill Maher compares Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau to Hitler

(zerohedge)

He “Sounds Like Hitler” – Bill Maher Blasts Trudeau Over “Do We Tolerate…Unacceptable Views” Comments

SATURDAY, FEB 12, 2022 – 01:30 PM

Born-again realist, and HBO show host, humorist Bill Maher dropped another ugly truth bomb on the cognitively dissonant left and establishment media this weekend by comparing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s recent bizarre condemnation of the Truckers in the Freedom Convoy as ‘intolerable racists and mysogynists that take up space” to the words of Hitler.

In recent months, as Maher has transitioned from liberal groupthink mouthpiece to independent thinker, he has been pilloried by blue-check-marks everywhere for not toeing-the-line, but, as Maher noted previously, it is not him that has changed, it’s the leftists…

“Let’s get this straight. It’s not me who changed — it’s the left, who is now made up of a small contingent who’ve gone mental, and a large contingent who refuse to call them out for it. But I will. That’s why I’m a hero at Fox these days. Which shows just how much liberals have their head up their a–, because if they really thought about it, they would have made me a hero on their media.”

And we suspect, the wave of hysterical complaints is about to grow larger.

As a reminder, last week, Trudeau made comments to a Quebecois television station, questioning whether good vaccinated Canadians should be forced to “tolerate” their unvaccinated brethren.

“We are going to end this pandemic by proceeding with the vaccination,” said Trudeau in French.
“We all know people who are deciding whether or not they are willing to get vaccinated, and we will do our very best to try to convince them. However, there is still a part of the population (that) is fiercely against it.”
“They don’t believe in science/progress and are very often misogynistic and racist. It’s a very small group of people, but that doesn’t shy away from the fact that they take up some space.”
“This leads us, as a leader and as a country, to make a choice: Do we tolerate these people? Over 80% of the population of Quebec have done their duty by getting the shot. They are obviously not the issue in this situation.”

Maher reflects on Trudeau’s surreal comments in his usual fact-based, acerbic manner exclaiming that the softly spoken Canadian PM sounded “like Hitler” when he made comments about leaders facing a choice on whether or not to “tolerate” people who aren’t vaccinated.

Maher stated, “I mean, Justin Trudeau… I mean, I thought he was kind of a cool guy, then I started to read what he said – this is a couple of weeks ago, he was – or maybe this was September, but he was talking about people who were not vaccinated. He said they ‘don’t believe in science…often misogynistic, often racist.’
No, they’re not.…
He said, but they ‘take up [some] space’ and with that, we have to ‘make a choice’ in terms of a leader as a country, ‘do we tolerate these people?’
It’s like, tolerate? Now you do sound like Hitler. And recently, he talked about them holding ‘unacceptable views’.”

Most humorously, Maher’s guest remarked, shocked, that she was “surprised” that Trudeau would say such things. Maher, without a blink responded, “you didn’t see the blackface?”

Watch the full clip below:

The most ironic thing about that last comment is that while Trudeau would like Canadians to assume that all anti-vaxxers are racist, the reality couldn’t be further from the truth, because – just like in the US – black Canadians are generally more skeptical of vaccines.

One study from Innovative Research Group showed black Canadians reported vaccination rates that were 20 percentage points below the Canadian average.

Black Canadians also self-reported much lower rates of willingness and confidence pertaining to vaccines.

President Biden has made a similar mistake in the past, and some have credited this dichotomy with influencing the White House to finally dial back its hostile rhetoric toward the unvaccinated.

So, in reality, many of the “anti-vaxxers” Trudeau has condemned as racists are actually black themselves.

end

TD to surrender convoy donations to the court. Organizers turn to cryptocurrency

(zerohedge)

TD Bank To Surrender Convoy Donations To Court As Organizers Turn To Crypto

SATURDAY, FEB 12, 2022 – 03:30 PM

Canada’s TD Bank says it plans to surrender approximately $1 million in un-refunded GoFundMe donations to the Freedom Convoy, as well as some $400,000 the group had accepted through direct donations.

On Friday, TD told CTV news that it would apply to surrender the funds to an Ontario court.

“TD has asked the court to accept the funds, which were raised through crowdfunding and deposited into personal accounts at TD, so they may be managed and distributed in accordance with the intentions of the donors, and/or to be returned to the donors who have requested refunds but whose entitlement to a refund cannot be determined by TD,” said spokeswoman Carla Hindman.

The Convoy, meanwhile, plans to fight for their donations – and is now looking to raise funding via cryptocurrency.

Convoy lawyer Keith Wilson said that the group planned to fight to retrieve any money they had raised — and could be seen in a video promoting the group’s next play: a cryptocurrency fundraiser that has raised almost US$1 million.
“We will be taking expedited legal steps to have the restrictions on the donated funds lifted as soon as possible,” Wilson said in an email to CTV News. -CTV

“The principle philosophy of what Bitcoin is is freedom,” says one organizer in a Facebook video. “For everyone who had their voice stolen by “GoFraudMe”, “GoFundMe,” you should feel solace that there are now alternatives.”

According to Ontario court filings, Ottawa Police cited the video in their affidavit, referencing the convoy’s crypto fundraising strategy.

According to the Globe And Mail, more than $500,000 has been raised by one Bitcoin wallet.

TD’s move is the latest hurdle faced by the Convoy – which has occupied Ottawa and other border crossings for approximately two weeks in protest of vaccine and mask mandates – sparking protests worldwide in solidarity, as well as a state of emergency declared by Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Friday.

As CTV notes, of the roughly $10 million raised via GoFundMe, just $1 million was deposited before the fundraising site decided to cancel the campaign and refund the remainder.

Two subsequent fundraisers launched on Christian crowdfunding site GiveSendGo have reached more than $9 million as of this writing.

Late Thursday, however, the Ontario Superior Court froze funds from these accounts, after the province’s Attorney General alleged that the funds would further the criminal act of ‘mischief on the streets’ of Ottawa.

GiveSendGo says the order doesn’t apply and is still collecting funds.

END

Trudeau To Unleash Never-Before-Used ‘Emergency Powers Act’ To Counter Protests As US-Canada Bridge Reopens

MONDAY, FEB 14, 2022 – 10:12 AM

Canadian Broadcasting Corporation has learned that Prime Minister Trudeau “will inform the provinces he will invoke the Emergencies Act to give the government extra powers to deal with the protests across the country. But in a meeting with the Liberal caucus, the PM said there were no plans to deploy the military.”

The move follows a meeting Sunday of the federal cabinet and its Incident Response Group (IRG).
Trudeau tweeted late Sunday that the IRG discussed “further actions the government can take to help end the blockades and occupations.”
Earlier that day, Emergency Preparedness Minister Bill Blair told CBC’s Rosemary Barton Live that the federal government has discussed invoking special emergency powers to deal with ongoing protests in Ottawa.
Blair described the attitude around invoking the Emergencies Act as “appropriate caution” rather than “reticence.”

As CBC concludes, the law gives the federal government carte blanche to cope with a crisis, including the ability to enact emergency powers that allow it to prohibit travel within a specified area or remove personal property, while imposing fines or jail time on people contravening new orders.

This comes after reports on Sunday, Canadian officials cleared the roadway and arrested “Freedom Convoy” demonstrators who held the line and blocked the busiest U.S.-Canada border crossing for nearly a week. Canadian officials confirmed the bridge reopened earlier Monday morning as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to invoke emergency powers to squash protesters around the country.

Traffic cameras on Ambassador Bridge, which connects Windsor and Canadian automotive plants with Detroit, show increased traffic flows around 0930 ET in both directions, into the US, and into Canada.

“Today, our national economic crisis at the Ambassador Bridge came to an end,” declared the mayor of Windsor, Drew Dilkens.

Bridge Camera (Into the US)

Bridge Camera (Into Canada)

While the bridge’s reopening has been called a success by the government, demonstrators against medical tyranny disrupted hundreds of millions of trade between both countries. Bloomberg reports the price of the six-day shutdown cost a whopping $13.5 million an hour in traded goods and forced carmakers to shutter or limit production at plants in Ontario and Detroit.

About 500 miles northeast of Windsor, CBS News reports protesters in Ottawa, Canada’s capital, continue to “paralyze downtown.” The occupation of Ottawa has incited a movement across the country of freedom-loving people creating congestion across highways, metro areas, and border crossings — all because they’re fed up with Trudeau’s vaccine mandates and restrictions.

The government is struggling to quell the assembly of freedom-loving people from across the country as Trudeau’s government plays Whac-A-Mole” to squash protesters where every they show up.

The latest is in Surrey, British Columbia, where protesters have shuttered a border crossing. Freedom never sleeps as a stretch of Highway 15 remains shut down, preventing traffic from entering the US. Data from geolocation technology company TomTom shows part of the highway is closed.

Various highway traffic cameras (data sourced from the British Columbia government) confirm the closure.

Twitter is full of pictures and videos from over the weekend of people gathering on and around the highway to voice their opinion against the government’s dystopic vaccine mandates and restrictions.

Even as Ambassador Bridge reopens, protesters continue blockade movements across the country at critical chokepoints that could unleash economic pain for the Canadian economy, something the Bank of Canada has called “very distressing.”

The revolts have yet to be squashed as it appears Trudeau won’t submit to protester demands.

END

Rand Paul encourages truckers to clog up cities

(zerohedge)

Rand Paul Encourages Truckers To “Clog Up” Cities As DHS Scrambles To Stop Convoy From Disrupting Super Bowl

SUNDAY, FEB 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM

Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky told conservative website Daily Signal he’s all for anti-vaccine trucker convoys to “clog up” metro areas across the U.S. Meanwhile, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been well aware that truckers could soon embark for Washington, D.C. Still, this weekend, a more immediate threat could be a convoy headed to the Super Bowl in California.

“I’m all for it,” Paul said in the interview last Thursday. “Civil disobedience is a time-honored tradition in our country, from slavery to civil rights, you name it. Peaceful protest, clog things up, make people think about the mandates.”
“And some of this, we started,” he added. “We put [COVID-19] mandates on truckers coming across the border from Canada, so then they put mandates on, and the truckers are annoyed. They’re riding in a cab by themselves, most of them for eight, 10-hour long hauls, and they just want to do what they want to do. It’s their own business.”

“Freedom Convoy” demonstrations against medical tyranny have so far been peaceful across Canada for more than a week, causing congestion issues in Canada’s capital, Ottawa, and blocking one of the most crucial land ports on the U.S.-Canada border crossing that connects Detroit and Windsor, two regions responsible for a sizeable chunk of output for the North American auto industry.

Paul added, “I hope the truckers do come to America, and I hope they clog up cities.”

“It’d be great, but the thing is, it wouldn’t shut the city down because the government workers haven’t come to work in two years anyway,” Paul added. “I don’t know if it’ll affect D.C. It’d be a nice change. We’d actually have some traffic.”

Paul was not alone in supporting the protesters. Last week, Dr. Robert Malone, the father of mRNA vaccines, wrote an open letter to the Canadian truckers, sympathizing with them and embedded this picture in the article:

Suppose truckers are set to begin a convoy protest against medical tyranny stateside. In that case, they have a lot to learn from their brother and sisters in Canada as the actions of the governments of Ottawa and Canada were on full display of fascism (as Benito Mussolini once said, “Fascism should more properly be called corporatism, since it is the merger of the state and corporate power”) by taking away political fundraising from the truckers on GoFundMe.
Censorship is growing online, but one thing that petrifies governments who follow the script of the World Economic Forum for the so-called ‘Great COVID Reset’ are truckers who freedom honk and congest roadways. What’s even more concerning for the Davos man is that the everyday person, no matter race, religion, social class, or even political party, are banding together against overreaching governments. This was on display this weekend in Canada, France, and elsewhere. A revolution could be emerging.

The threat of convoys clogging up metro areas in the U.S. was enough for the DHS to distribute a bulletin to law enforcement agencies last week. An agency spokesperson replied to an email request by The Epoch Times, saying: “We’re tracking reports of a potential convoy that may be planning to travel to several U.S. cities.”

The bulletin highlighted how a convoy of truckers could affect Sunday’s Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

“While there are currently no indications of planned violence, if hundreds of trucks converge in a major metropolitan city, the potential exists to severely disrupt transportation, federal government operations, commercial facilities, and emergency services through gridlock and potential counterprotests,” the memo said.

DHS sent 500 agents to Inglewood in anticipation of trucker protests.

end

Trucker protest

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Latest:

Trucker Protest: Media Ignores the Digital ID

regards

Steve

Trucker Protest: Media Ignores the Digital ID

UK Government data suggests the Fully Vaccinated Elderly & Vulnerable have developed AIDS and the young are not far behind them – The Expose

Inbox

This is mind blowing.
It also is why so many unvaccinated people refuse to have sex with vaccinated partners.
What the heck happens when AIDS partners have children? What will happen to children whose parents deal with this reality? What have we done to our societies and how many people have a clue of how to detox in time to avoid this. This is nothing short of crimes against humanity.
https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/02/12/gov-data-shows-fully-vaccinated-elderly-have-aids/

GLOBAL ISSUES//

END

VACCINE IMPACT

Canadian Government is Getting Desperate as Ontario Premier Doug Ford Declares State of Emergency over Trucker Blockades

February 11, 2022 4:35 pm

Major border entries from Canada to the U.S. remain closed today, Friday, February 11th, as the Canadian Government appears to be reaching a point of desperation in their efforts to shut down the Canadian Trucker Freedom Convoy, as today Ontario Premier Doug Ford declared a state of emergency in Ontario, with yet more threats made against the protesters who seem to have become immune to the government’s scare tactics. Announcing the stiffest penalties yet, Doug Ford has threatened the protesters with fines up to $100,000 and a year in prison if they don’t stop the blockades. Canadians, however, seem unfazed, fully understanding that they are indeed in control, and that the government does not have the resources to tow away their trucks nor arrest them all.

Breaking: Criminal Canadian Monopoly Dr. David Martin Exposes Why Trudeau Won’t Back Down (Video) | Alternative

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Many questions and a need to hold to account if fact
https://beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2022/02/breaking-criminal-canadian-monopoly-dr-david-martin-exposes-why-trudeau-wont-back-down-video-3767259.html

END

Did Recent Court Rulings Force the FDA to Delay Approving Pfizer’s COVID Shots for Infants?

February 12, 2022 6:57 pm

Operation Warp Speed has hit its first bump in the road. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced yesterday that it was delaying approval of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccines for young children between the ages of 6 months and 4 years old. Since up until this point the FDA has illegally approved all other Pfizer COVID-19 “vaccines” by simply rubber-stamping Pfizer’s own data which is hidden from the public, the question that begs to be answered is, why? Pfizer has worked hard to hide the clinical data from their trials from the public, but recent court rulings have not exactly gone their way. The FDA had originally asked the court to delay releasing their clinical data for 75 years, but then agreed to provide 500 pages per month. In late January, Attorney Aaron Siri reported that a federal judge shot down the FDA’s requested rate of 500 pages per month and instead ordered the FDA to produce at the rate of 55,000 pages per month starting on March 1. Siri also reported that Pfizer was joining the FDA in the case. And why not, since the FDA basically works for Pfizer? Last week, the judge in this case, U.S. District Judge Mark Pittman, denied Pfizer’s request (for now) to join the case. The next day, Pfizer redlined changes in their 4th quarter earnings release from 2021, adding language warnings that ‘Unfavorable Pre-Clinical, Clinical Or Safety Data’ may impact business in 2022. It’s too bad for Pfizer that Donald Trump is no longer president, because he could have intervened to help Pfizer get their shots out to those 18 million children by strong-arming the FDA, like he originally did back in December 2020 when he threatened the FDA head, Dr. Stephen Hahn, to approve the COVID-19 shots or be fired.

Vaccine Impact

Michael Every

on the major topics of the day

Michael Every…

A MUST READ: THE 4 SCENARIOS FACING GERMANY RIGHT NOW!

“Ich Bin Ein Berliner”? Germany’s “Donut Disturb” Economic Problem

MONDAY, FEB 14, 2022 – 03:30 AM

By Michael Every, Global Strategist, Elwin de Groot, Head Macro Strategy, and Erik-Jan van Harn, Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Summary

In 1963, US President JFK stood behind Germany, saying “Ich bin ein Berliner!
Europe now risks another potential bifurcation, and sides need to be taken once again
Germany’s economic role has, like a ‘Berliner’ jam donut, been sweet for decades
However, the more illiberal world is forcing liberal Germany to either change or be changed
We plot four paths –and donuts– for Germany’s future and their economic and market impact: regrettably, none are as sweet as the current model, but some have far less jam
The path/donut that Germany chooses will have huge ramifications for both itself and the EU for years to come

“Ich Bin Ein Berliner”

In June 1963 the Berlin Wall divided that city and Germany and Europe were split between a Russian-east and a US-backed west (Figure 1). US President Kennedy stood before a huge crowd in West Berlin and stated: “Ich bin ein Berliner!” Urban legend says he misspoke by calling himself a jam donut (also a ‘Berliner’), but he didn’t: his historic speech underlined the firm US commitment to West Germany and Western Europe.

After the end of the Cold War Germany and Europe was mostly reunified and at peace: the EU and NATO expanded in tandem (Figure 2) all the way to Russia’s borders.

However, Russia attacked Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, and Europe stands on the brink of the largest military action since WW2 over Ukraine again. Russia demands a new European security architecture that gives it a large role and the US a far smaller one. Worse, Russia and China have declared a global alliance to support each other’s positions. Europe risks another potential physical, economic, financial, and political bifurcation.

Enormous decisions loom for the EU – and Germany as its heart. The US stood with Berlin during the Cold War: will Berlin stand with the EU and US now? We will show that doing so means Germany could lose the economic jam from its current donut; yet thinking only of Berliners risks making Germany the hole in an economic ring donut.

Map of Europe on the Table?

To underline the scale of the crisis playing out, former politician Bruno Maçães writes in Time: “What Happens Next in Ukraine Could Change Europe Forever”.

He repeats an argument we have made since 2017: “We no longer live in the old liberal order where rules must be enforced, and violators punished. We live in a new order where power must be balanced with power…

The US must reflect on whether it can afford to reduce its presence in Europe before a proper counterweight to Russia has been created in Brussels. The pivot to Asia may need to wait for a solution to the European crisis. As for Europeans, they need to quickly prepare themselves for a new world, where their sovereignty and security may well be at stake…

The existing order is starting to buckle, and Washington needs to decide how best to replace it with new arrangements. Does it prefer to reach a grand bargain with Moscow whereby the two powers divide Europe among themselves? Or does it prefer to encourage and support the development of a new European pole capable of balancing Russian power?”

In short, massive geopolitical decisions are being taken – and potentially above Europe’s head.

Maçães concludes: “To me the choice seems an obvious one, but what is frustrating about the current crisis is how we keep avoiding the larger questions of political order. By hesitating we allow others to assume the role of reformers and innovators. Eurasia, the supercontinent, is being reshaped before our eyes.”

Indeed, this is a global metacrisis. The West is economically weak and politically divided; Afghanistan recently saw the US exit in dramatic fashion; China is looking at Taiwan; and China and Russia are developing sanctions-resistant financial infrastructure, meaning Western sanctions on Russia would need to be extended to China.

Indeed, the Foreign Policy Research Institute repeat that: “Beijing,…in a crisis might conclude it has no choice but to stand up to America’s extraterritorial sanction power. If so, Russia would find a valuable friend amid the crisis – and the West could find itself embroiled in a two-front financial war.” The US is now warning of that outcome too – and some fear a two-front physical war that the US cannot easily fight given the present array of forces.

Germany is already being dragged into a spat with China over Beijing’s treatment of Lithuania: far worse may be to follow.

No Tools in the Toolbox

Germany helped the EU deal with the Eurozone Crisis of 2012-13 and the Refugee Crisis of 2015 (both of which it also arguably helped drive), as well as Brexit in 2016. However, Russian pressure on Ukraine and eastern EU members represents a problem Berlin cannot readily solve using any of its traditional methods or policies of mercantilism and pacifism.

Germany chooses to play a passive geopolitical role to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. The current government’s stance so far reflects public opinion. In a recent survey, 73% of Germans were against delivering weapons to Ukraine; 57% think Russia won’t invade Ukraine; and 55% think they can rely on Russia to keep gas flowing despite the crisis.

Germany has no military strength. Back in the 1980s, West Germany had a powerful army. United Germany presumed it had no need to do so because Europe was at peace, and it sat under the US-backed NATO defence umbrella. However, we are clearly back to Great Power struggles globally. The US, increasingly focused on Asia, is not the relative superpower that it once was, and now faces a two-front challenge from Russia and China across both Europe and Asia.

Germany has huge fiscal resources but remains wedded to low government debt. This naturally reduces all its options in a crisis – or gives it huge options if it pivots.

ECB monetary policy is no use against a military threat. It could help only in conjunction with fiscal policy, to pay for higher defence spending. Yet war and/or sanctions on Russia/China would push German inflation much higher.

Germany is vulnerable on the import side due to reliance on Russian gas and the shut-down of its nuclear power.

Germany is vulnerable on the export side given net exports are a key GDP driver.

Unlike with Brexit, Russia is deliberately exacerbating these pre-existing differences within the EU and NATO rather than allowing unity against an external opponent.

Notably, while much of the West has rallied behind Ukraine, Germany has prevaricated. Berlin has wavered over imposing harsh sanctions; rejected sending even defensive arms to Kyiv; stalled EU efforts to send arms too; and will not spend more on its own defence regardless of longstanding US complaints. This is seeing rising tensions between Berlin and parts of the EU, even if the US is opting to downplay its own concerns in public.

Liberalism vs. Freedom

Russia is touching on member states’ deepest interests. For Germany this is usually economic, while for others it is now about national security. Sweden and Finland, the three Baltic states, Poland, Slovakia, Czechia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, and Romania all look at developments in Ukraine and the Balkans and feel existential threats: war on their borders; economic disruption; refugee flows; and if not outright invasion today, then potential Finlandization by Russia in the future. This transcends –and exacerbates– pre-existing EU differences along the dividing lines of EU vs. Eurozone, Eurozone core vs. periphery, as well as East-West geographical and cultural splits. Spats over rule of law are one thing: this is the law of the jungle.

As academic Timothy Garton-Ash writes: “If, faced with an aggressor who is prepared to use violent means to destabilise and dismantle a European state, you refuse to supply defensive weapons to Ukraine and rely only on OSCE monitors and diplomatic negotiations, you are in effect conceding Yalta while pretending to do Helsinki. You are making war more probable by failing to defend peace…[and the] muddled thinking, self-deception, and outright hypocrisy that this entails.” More conservatively, the German Council on Foreign Relations (DCGP) reports: “…for many allies, Germany seems to be once again a weak link and an unreliable partner in European defence.”

The fundamental duty of every state is to defend its territorial integrity and national sovereignty: the EU and NATO must be able to provide such structures or else they risk being superseded by new ones that do.

Yet that comes at a cost. Since 1945 and 1991, Germany has mightily benefited from the current Western architecture at relatively little cost: it has been the ‘jam’ in a European jam donut. However, things now need to change dramatically if Germany is not to become the hole in a European ring donut over time.

There are two easy ways to measure that German jam.

First, defence spending. If looking at US vs. German expenditure on a population-adjusted basis, the gap is obvious (Figure 4). The US spends almost 4 times more per person on defence than Germany does – and the results are clear in this crisis. The cumulative difference is $10.5 trillion since 1991. Germany would not need to spend that much given it is not trying to be a global hegemon. However, relying on the US umbrella has unarguably saved Germany vast sums: 20% of the gap would equal EUR 1.8 trillion, or EUR60bn annually since the end of the Cold War.

Moreover, while Germany is a generous (net-) contributor to the EU budget (Figure 5), the exchange-rate benefit it gets from being in the Euro –the overall lower exchange rate it enjoys compared to where it would be if it still had the Deutschemark– more than compensates in terms of its persistently large net export surplus.

Jam today, as they say, and for the last 30 years. However, while liberal Germany has not changed, the world has – in a far less liberal direction. As such, Berlin now needs a new economic model – and if it doesn’t choose one, one will be forced on it anyway. Either way, Germany, and the EU, are in for huge changes.

The Journey to the…?

We see four potential roads Germany can go down ahead:

Muddle through, trying to please all sides and evade geopolitical confrontation as much as possible; a scenario that we will call “Status quo”.
Re-align with the current EU/NATO architecture; a scenario that we will call “(Re)turning westwards”.
Act in similar fashion, but on a pan-European basis without the US; a scenario that we will call “Strategic autonomy”.
Actively choose to appease Russia and China; a scenario that we will call “Turning eastwards”.

We will now run through a broad description of each of them before then contrasting the impact each would have on the level and composition of German GDP growth, as well as on trade patterns, fiscal and monetary policy, the exchange rate, and intra-EU cohesion indicators such as Eurozone sovereign yield spreads.

1. “Status Quo”

Germany could try to muddle through with its current pacifist and mercantilist policies. Although that may limit economic damage in the short run, in the long run it could damage external European stability as well as cohesion. The path of least resistance in the near term is not without huge tail risks!

As Ivan Krestev now puts it in the New York Times: “Germany has not changed – but the world in which it acts has. The country is like a train that stands still after the railway station has caught fire.” We argued something similar.

Without clear EU crisis leadership, which requires Germany on board, countries could choose to work around Brussels; and if Germany does not play an active role in the EU’s defensive shield, NATO, then other member states may again choose to work around it and form new arrangements.

We already see signs of the latter happening. US generals are calling Polish, not German counterparts first; Poland is to double the size of its army; the UK to sign a defence treaty with Poland and Ukraine; Scandinavian states, the UK, and the Baltics are co-operating more closely through the NORDEFCO defence grouping; Romania is asking for more US F-35s; the US is backing the Three Seas Initiative running from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea and Mediterranean, and under former President Trump threatened to walk away from NATO; France is building Mediterranean ties with Italy, Spain, and Greece; Turkey is increasingly acting independently outside of NATO; and Hungary seems to be more pro-Russian than pro-NATO in this crisis. Germany is out of all these loops (see Figures 7 and 8).

Further inaction from Germany will see these cracks in the European defensive foundations becoming pronounced in the economy over time: and where defence leads, trade will eventually follow – that dynamic built the EU. ‘Hunters eat first’ traditions also imply new intra-EU powers for those with more muscles.

Ironically, a political stance that aims to maintain the status quo actually leads to its erosion: no less irony than that of Vegetius, who stresses Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum (“Let he who desires peace prepare for war.”)

The status quo is therefore likely to see trust in EU and NATO cohesion erode, leading to higher peripheral Eurozone spreads – a single measure representing a broader divergence in economic performance and inflation in the long run.

2. “(Re)turn Westwards”

In this scenario, Germany embraces realpolitik. A clear commitment to the West and NATO will lead to even closer cooperation within the EU (closer to a political union) and with allies such as the US and the UK. However, there will be a strong bifurcation between the West and the East, much like we saw during the last Cold War.

A strong military will also be required. This major step towards European autonomy will cement the foundations of the Union and pave the way towards further integration along defence supply chains, economically, and national security trust, politically. International trust in the EU would also rise and, as a consequence, risk premiums such as peripheral spreads remain sustained at low levels, or fall.
This does come at a heavy price, however. There are direct up-front costs, such as far higher defence spending. Germany currently spends just 1.3% of GDP, and much of that is not directed to front-line equipment. The US and Russia both spend closer to 4% of GDP, and during the 1980’s Cold War the US figure was over 6%, and during the 1960’s, nearly 10%. As another example, Israel today spends 5.6%.

While the US might appreciate Germany finally meeting the previously mooted 2% of GDP NATO commitment, this was a ‘peace-time’ goal before Russia (and China) changed the European and global equation. Germany would need to at least match the US and Russian 4% of GDP military spending level, and maintain it for decades, to truly allow its military to catch up with Russia’s and so help support the US on the European front.

Given not all of these costs can be financed via an off balance-sheet investment vehicle, the extra 2.7% of GDP required would either mean deep cuts to other government spending or abandoning the Stability and Growth Pact’s fiscal limits – and across the EU, not just for Germany. That would be a real economic game-changer, and would initially face domestic opposition given the entrenched fear of inflation against the current backdrop.

Ironically, just as the US is now pushing Germany to spend more on defence, under this scenario Germany would probably then push other EU member states to spend the extra budget only on defence too, rather than social programs, etc. That would point to the deeper political cooperation inherent in this scenario.

Moreover, while Germany has the required technologies, and is already an arms exporter, it is unlikely it will be able to manufacture all the required defence equipment domestically, so imports would surge, presumably from the US, NATO’s key arms producer. Simultaneously, the production capacity reserved for defence equipment will crowd out the production of export goods, reducing export opportunities.

Germany would also see a sharp decline in exports to Russia and China, which currently make up roughly 7% of the total. It is unlikely that this loss could easily be absorbed by EU countries given Germany already has a large trade surplus with most of them – unless Germany produces more arms to sell them.

Energy security would be a challenge as well. Choosing to fully (re-)engage with the West would force Germany to seek energy outside Russia. An obvious option would be to restart the nuclear power plants, or to increase domestic production of coal (which would obviously clash with the green ambitions of the EU – underlying how geopolitics cuts through apparently domestic policy debates). However, it is very unlikely that Germany could become energy independent.

Gas imports from the US or the Middle East would therefore be necessary to fill the gap – but given Russian and Chinese interests in the Middle East, would again require a more ‘muscular’ EU presence. Notably, Germany does not currently possess LNG gas terminals to receive such shipments, underlining the scale of the challenges being proposed and the limited near-term room for manoeuvre.

The monetary policy response to this huge economic shift is hard to predict: however, once national security moves to the economic and political forefront, normal inflation-fighting strategies move to the background. We already saw an echo of this in the initial response to Covid-19 and the current energy crisis.

The flow-through effect to the exchange rate is ambiguous. Looser monetary policy would weaken the euro, but stronger cohesion in the EU could provide support.

3. “Strategic Autonomy”

A parallel scenario would see Germany shift away from the US and Russia in conjunction with EU partners – the so-called path of “Strategic autonomy”. This might be a deliberate choice, or taken in response to a future US decision to step back from European security.

The imperative for greater EU political coordination would hold truer, and the impetus on higher defence spending would be even higher. However, there would not be the same willingness to import armaments from the US. Instead, Germany would look to its and European suppliers, most notably France.

An extra 3-4% of GDP on EU-sourced defence goods would obviously see an even larger shift in production and consumption vs. exports – and inflation. The ECB would likely have to act. However, historically, rapid rearmament often sees controls over market pricing to help allocate key resources, e.g., price controls, rationing.

The trade impact would be mixed in that export opportunities would have to be passed over in favour of domestic consumption; and a ‘fortress Europe’ would find itself in realpolitik trade tussles with the US and Russia/China – and indeed, almost everyone in an even more zero-sum world.

Europe would also still find itself grappling with its underlying vulnerabilities over a lack of domestic energy (priced in dollars), its lack of physical control of supply chains, of the inputs for green technology, its lag in tech sector to date, and the often-overlooked Achilles Heel of its reliance on the US-centric Eurodollar system (previously covered in detail here).

In short, while perhaps superficially attractive, this path would be fraught with risks.

4. “Turn Eastwards”

Germany could also choose to fully embrace the East, reviving and reinventing Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik. Although it is still bound by European law, and therefore unable to negotiate any trade deals with non-EU countries, Germany could cooperate with Russia and China on specific projects in industry, energy, and technology, just as they did with Russia on NordStream 2. Additionally, Germany could frustrate the EU’s potential foreign policy shifts on China and Russia in order to favour Moscow and Beijing.

Obviously, there would be no EU cohesion here unless Berlin could drag the rest of the EU with it – which would almost certainly not be the case for eastern members. Germany would also no longer be seen as an ally by the US.

True, there would be no need for Germany to spend more on defence, meaning no need for fiscal stimulus. However, the net effect on the economy would not be positive given that although trade with China and Russia would increase slightly –if not on Germany’s terms, with imports rising more than exports– this would not be enough to offset a predicted sharp decline in intra-European trade and exports to the US.

Poland for example, has already opted to import gas via a pipeline from Norway, rather than Russian gas imported through the German Nordstream2 pipeline. If Germany looks east, could the current deep bilateral economic integration remain true over the long term? We believe true Ostpolitik would isolate Germany from the rest of Europe and could turn small cracks into a large fissure in the EU’s foundation.

This could also have significant economic consequences for the Union. More uncertainty regarding European cohesion would raise peripheral spreads, whilst investors may shun the euro to prevent getting caught in the political crossfire.

Only a little imagination is required to see how one could compare this scenario to the Euro crisis, when investors questioned the viability of the Euro project. The euro lost as much as 20% of its value against the dollar at that time, whilst peripheral spreads for most Southern European countries rose to 6%.

Such a development would put the ball into the ECB’s court, but EU fissures might travel in its direction. In this scenario, why would Germany continue to support policies that favour the EU’s most indebted member states? Or would it require them to look east too as a quid pro quo for support? One can see how geopolitical this would rapidly get – and then add in the risks from the US Eurodollar system again on top.

‘Donut Disturb’

While Germany really wants to say ‘donut disturb’ to the world, its economic jam donut is going to be disturbed. In each of the four scenarios just described, the presumed rate of German GDP growth will differ markedly and the composition of GDP by demand will change with it, with some sectors benefiting and others losing out. To help simplify this categorisation we have also shown what new kind of donut they represent.

“Status quo” is a ring donut rather than the current jam-filled one because of the risks that we have already flagged of a gradual, and perhaps more rapid than forseen, collapse in EU and NATO cohesion. In this scenario, we project German GDP growth at 1.0% y/y as compared to 1.1% in 2019, but with risks clearly to the downside over time.

“(Re)turn westwards” is a jam donut…but one with a large bite taken out of it, or at least much less jam than before. The headline level of GDP growth is seen at 0.6%, around half of the level in 2019. Moreover, the composition of growth shows a marked shift, with net exports a much larger drag than normal and government (military) consumption a much larger share.

“Strategic autonomy” is a glazed jam donut, so loaded with sweetness –but potentially to the point where it causes economic diabetes– and with a large bite taken out of it. Inflation may soar in this scenario, but the huge disruption to the economy would likely see real GDP growth fall further vs. the previous trend, to just 0.5%. Moreover, the GDP composition changes even more compared to 2019, with even higher state spending and even more of a drag from net exports.

“Turn eastwards” is a ring donut because of the risks already flagged in walking away from the US and much of the EU. The scale of this economic and financial disruption shows a donut with two bites taken out of it. GDP growth in this scenaro is seen at just 0.4%, so almost a third of the 2019 total. There is no fiscal boost at all. There is therefore also no major drag from net exports assumed – but that could be an optimisic assesment if the EU and the US reject or tariff German goods, and Russia and China do not buy more to compensate.

Market Impact

Beyond headline GDP, the presumed market impact of the four ‘donut’ scenarios are shown above in Table 1.

In terms of German trade, already partially captured via net exports in GDP, “Status quo”, a “(Re)turn westwards”, and a “Turn eastwards” are all negative compared to the pre-Covid norm. “Strategic autonomy” is far more negative than before.

In terms of German fiscal policy, “Status quo” and a “Turn eastwards” see net state spending unchanged, while a “(Re)turn westwards” and “Strategic autonomy” both see large fiscal expansion.

On monetary policy, or at least the German contribution towards it, “Status quo” and a “Turn eastwards” again see little for the ECB to worry about: yet a “(Re)turn westwards” and “Strategic autonomy” would both suggest either the ECB would need to raise rates faster given a vastly more stimulative fiscal policy, unless government price controls or industrial policy helped to ameliorate the inflationary effects; OR to lean towards some de facto form of fiscal-monetary support, e.g., by accepting that defence spending also qualifies for ECB bond purchase schemes. This would presumably also mean some form of financial repression. Over time, that could still mean ‘easy’ policy followed by ‘tightening’ policy, hence the green and red arrows.

On the FX front, “Status quo” and “Strategic autonomy” both imply a drift towards a weaker euro, at least short term, and a “Turn eastwards” a much weaker one, while a “(Re)turn westwards” would more neutral.

Regarding intra-EU yield spreads, “Status quo” sees spreads widen, and a “Turn eastwards” to spike; “Strategic autonomy” and a “(Re)turn westwards” would be neutral.

Mr. Donut

As the reader may have gathered, no future scenario is as sweet for Germany as things were until the Ukraine metacrisis started. But some clearly have less jam than others.

Regrettably, having failed to address the changing geopolitical reality over the past few decades means there is now going to be a high price for Germany to pay. It may be a heavy burden for the country that played such a key role in the post-WW2 economic build-up of Europe – but no other European country can do it.

We do –perhaps– see some movement from Germany already: but against China, not Russia. It is reported that:

Chancellor Scholz is to prioritize engagement with democratic partners in the Indo-Pacific instead of China.
Fully supports Lithuania against Chinese coercion, which the EU (and Australia and the UK) have already taken to the WTO.
Foreign Minister Baerbock will be allowed to champion initiatives against China, and German diplomats in the Indo-Pacific are “being encouraged to push the envelope and resist old habits to self-censor” when developing new China strategies; and
Germany is reportedly to declare China a “systemic rival” narrowing the EU’s confused troika of that tag as well as “partner” and “competitor” down to just one.

Obviously, this will exacerbate German-China economic tensions, and please the US. However, that still appears the bare minimum this US administration would expect rather than a German quid pro quo for ongoing US security: the US won’t change its pivot to Asia. In NATO and EU eyes, Germany must still do far more, now. It must also accept the risk of economic pain via sanctions, and certainly not block others from acting over Article 5, if needed.

After all, if you decided to turn your economy into your powerbase rather than into weapons, like Germany has, then it still involves taking hits for your allies: armies take damage in wars – economies take damage during economic wars.

In short, Germany must make an existential decision: to look westwards to the US again, and fill its defence gap; to look inwards at the EU, and fill its defence gap; to look eastwards to Russia, and not fill that gap; or to look away entirely, and face the consequences around it as others face up to the present crisis.

We will soon find out if Berlin are 1963 Berliners or not. The path Germany chooses will have huge ramifications for both itself and the EU for years to come.

end

Rabo: The Soft Power Of The EU And Its Markets Are Clashing With The Hard Power Of Russia And Its Weapons: Who Wins?

MONDAY, FEB 14, 2022 – 09:15 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Valentine’s Day should be filled with love, but there is very little of that in the air. Neither are there civilian aircraft over Ukraine given it is apparently now impossible for them to get insurance, a huge blow to an already weak economy. In short, markets are belatedly waking up to the geopolitical risks posed by Russian military action against Ukraine. We now even have an alleged potential start date, with all the usual caveats – Wednesday, February 16.

Of course, Russia continues to vociferously deny it has any such intentions, and correctly points to the US not being a good actor when it comes to casus belli. Then again, Moscow just refused to comply with an official Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) request to transparently explain what its military is doing all around Ukraine’s borders. Said OSCE observers are now being pulled out of eastern Ukraine; a flood of countries are pulling ambassadors or citizens out – including Russia; Ukraine’s army has reportedly had its leave cancelled; and President Zelenskiy has asked President Biden to come to Kyiv as a demonstration that all is well. So, everyone who had been acting pragmatically is now head over heels – but not in love.

What are markets to do should this grim assessment prove accurate? Obviously, risk off, tempering some of the recent surge in bond yields; yet the direct economic impact of a Russian attack is small provided it is not sustained, even if there would be immediate disruption to markets of the kind already seen (i.e., no commercial flights/shipping). An economic history paper (‘The Effect of War Risk on Managerial and Investor Behaviour’) also argues firms cancel IPOs or delist, and become more risk averse.

However, sanctions would have a dramatic impact on energy, food, and key metals prices – even if Russia very undiplomatically claims it “doesn’t give a ****” about whether they are imposed on it or not. Of course, if sanctions aren’t introduced –and Austria says it may block them– then the West can’t agree on even a financial penalty for invading a neighbor, let alone a military one. So how does a market trade the end of the key principle of global security –that you can’t take what you want by force– already cracked by past US and Russian actions? It won’t. But that does not mean it is right not to do so!

February 15 marks the 80th anniversary of the fall of “Fortress Singapore” to the Imperial Japanese Army in WW2. I spent yesterday looking at memories of the physical, economic, and psychological shock of that previously inconceivable collapse. I quote from the diary of Captain MacPherson of the Argyll & Sutherland Highlanders lifted from HR Oppenheim, who conveys how/why this transpired:

“A. Lack of co-ordination; Viz B. Complete chaos at Headquarters; C. Lack of leadership and foresight.

Officers spent too much time in clubs and prior to this war refused to leave Singapore or KL and scout round for themselves. None knew the country though they had been stationed in it for a year or more, and few knew the language.
Many officers refused to leave Headquarters and most tried to be posted to cushy jobs.”

Swap British for American/Western, and clubs for think-tanks, and how redolent is that description of our current global architecture, as well as of last year’s fall of Kabul (and its market economy)? Just as pertinent, John Hemmings, Professor of Security Studies, asks: “As the period between WW1 and WW2 was merely an intermission, so the period between the Cold War and this current period of great power competition was an intermission. Discuss.” Indeed, we must – because Ukraine is a global metacrisis over what market architecture will look like ahead.

As a key example, Sam Greene, Professor of politics at Kings College London, stresses: “The inconvenient truth of the present crisis is that behind all the rhetoric about NATO, Moscow’s beef is fundamentally with the EU. It’s worth remembering that Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine was sparked *by a trade treaty*, not by a near- or even mid-term threat of NATO expansion. And no, the EU is not a back door to NATO. If anything, the NATO is a back door to the EU, which is much, much harder to join. Moscow’s problem with the EU is geo-economic, which should not be read as being somehow less salient than geo-politics. Put briefly, the continued expansion of the European geo-economic project poses a threat to the current Kremlin’s political survival. The expansion of EU influence puts insurmountable pressure on the Russian political economy to move from a rent-based, patronal model of wealth creation and power relations, to a system of institutionalized competition. Having satellite states that are governed in the same patronalist mode as Russia gives Moscow geo-economic breathing space, adding years or decades to the system’s viability. Losing those satellites removes those years and decades.”

In short, the soft power of the EU and its markets are clashing with the hard power of Russia and its weaponry. Who wins? Not the market presumption they must win by default, and so war does not happen, “because markets”! Russia’s actions are a *rejection* of said markets! Moreover, as repeatedly stressed here, many global players feel the same way. Iran –NOT thinking about GDP and markets– continues to haggle over a new nuclear deal; in the background, Saudi Arabia just warned civilians to leave areas of Yemen as it prepares for larger attacks on Iranian-backed Houthis there; and the Israeli press reports a weak nuclear deal could see Israel move against Iran. North Korea –which has no GDP or markets– continues to fire missiles. And China –with a vast GDP, and markets where Westerners continue to shrug off Common Prosperity as ‘miscommunication’ rather than a fundamental policy shift– is clearly the focus of the new US Indo-Pacific Strategy. This states the US will pursue key objectives in concert with allies to:

Advance a free and open Indo-Pacific: “through investments in democratic institutions, a free press, and a vibrant civil society. The US will bolster freedom of information and expression and combat foreign interference by supporting investigative journalism, promoting media literacy and pluralistic and independent media, and increasing collaboration to address threats from information manipulation…the US will be a partner in strengthening democratic institutions, the rule of law, and accountable democratic governance.” So, very Cold War!
Build connections within and beyond the region: “deepening our five regional treaty alliances –with Australia, Japan, the ROK, the Philippines, and Thailand– and strengthening relationships with leading regional partners, including India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Pacific Islands…. Allies and partners outside of the region are increasingly committing new attention to the Indo-Pacific, particularly the EU and NATO.” So, everyone except Russia, North Korea, and China.
Drive regional prosperity. “The US will put forward an Indo-Pacific economic framework… We will develop new approaches to trade that meet high labour and environmental standards and will govern our digital economies and cross-border data flows according to open principles… We will work with our partners to advance resilient and secure supply chains that are diverse, open, and predictable… We will also redouble our commitment to helping Indo-Pacific partners close the region’s infrastructure gap.” So, rebuilding economic ties on US terms – though how is unclear.
Bolster Indo-Pacific security: “The US will work with allies and partners to deepen our interoperability and develop and deploy advanced warfighting capabilities… We will [find] new opportunities to link our defence industrial bases, integrating our defence supply chains, and co-producing key technologies that will shore up our collective military advantages.” So, US defence as umbrella and umbilical cord – against Russia, North Korea, and China. (There will also be a focus on maritime security, as we predicted back in ‘In Deep Ship’.)

Let’s turn this back to markets. Some research is belatedly realising China has goals of supply-chain and tech strategic autonomy and decoupling from the US dollar. To do so they say China will: maintain a large, mercantilist trade surplus; trade far less with the US; shift import payments to CNY; and shift others to more bilateral trade and holdings of CNY. The argument is therefore that CNY should be a strong currency. Yet how will vast regional US dollar debts be paid back if the US dollar is not being earned? How will China lose US markets and maintain a trade surplus, when everyone wants to take supply chains home? How do others earn CNY if they run trade deficits, apart from borrowing it (we saw how that ended in the Euro crisis)? Apart from government bonds, Chinese assets are not seen as stable right now, as its debt bubble wobbles: indeed, Western capital inflows rest on the whims of MSCI. Most importantly, the Ukraine clash of ‘markets vs. muscles’ has sharpened minds, and the US Indo-Pacific Strategy show the West will resist such geopolitical power-plays. The long-run outlook for currencies and assets therefore changes dramatically depending on who you think has the better odds of prevailing in a global clash of systems, even if peaceful.

What we are talking about here is not ‘an end to globalization’, but a sharp change to it. As another economic history paper on WW1 (‘Globalizing the History of the First World War: Economic Approaches’) notes:

“Deglobalization, if this is taken to mean a significant diminution of interdependence, was not an outcome of the war….far from ushering in an era of autarky, [it] encouraged adaptations of the infrastructures of exchange to meet its demands and reshaped global networks of merchants, shipping companies, and intermediaries, who emerged after 1918 ready to do business with new customers. In the case of shipping, in fact, the war clearly provided a fillip to the forces of integration, as once marginal national fleets expanded into new trading routes after its conclusion.
Wartime disruptions of shipping, moreover, did not make economies and societies that before the war depended on imports –including most of Europe’s colonies– significantly more self-sufficient after its outbreak. Rather, these disruptions made their position of dependency far more painful, particularly for the working people and rural and urban poor forced to bear the costs of these disruptions in the form of rising prices, shortages, and famine. The war’s conclusion saw nearly synchronized uprisings in many places that saw steep wartime increases in the costs of living –including Egypt, India, Belize, Trinidad, and Iraq– which were due, in large part, to disruptions to global supply chains and shipping.”

In short, interconnectivity is here to stay, but its current pattern is not. Today it is Ukraine caught in a maelstrom: but the risks are of a sharper, larger, harder geopolitical and geoeconomic game that will reshape global supply chains and capital flows. It isn’t love in the air on Valentine’s Day. At the very least, it’s change.

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

NEW ZEALAND/VACCINE MANDATE

Huge protests in New Zealand over the weekend

(zerohedge)

New Zealand Police Play “Barry Manilow” And “The Macarena” To Antagonize Capitol Protesters

SUNDAY, FEB 13, 2022 – 11:00 PM

The authorities in New Zealand have found a new strategy for warding off unwanted demonstrators who are camping outside the Parliament building: playing “Barry Manilow’s Greatest Hits” and the “the Macarena” on repeat to try and ward people off.

Of course, the global protest movement inspired by the Canadian “Freedom Convoy” is vexing governments from the antipodes to Europe, and beyond.

And in a few instances, the demonstrators have responded in kind by playing Twisted Sister’s “We’re Not Gonna Take It”. Hundreds of demonstrators have been camped out outside Parliament in Wellington since Tuesday. According to the BBC, they adopted the name “Convoy for Freedom” and blocked streets in the city.

Although their numbers dwindled to the dozens by mid-week, they increased again by the time the weekend arrived.

Police haven’t been shy about making arrests: on Thursday, police arrested 122 people and charged many with trespassing or obstruction. Yet, still the demonstrators persisted.

The local police haven’t stopped at playing music. Other tactics of dispersal have included “turning on sprinklers” on a lawn where protesters had camped out.

But again, protesters retaliated by digging trenches and building makeshift drainpipes to re-route the water.

On Saturday, singer James Blunt responded to a headline about authorities sonic repellant, and joked that his music should be added to the playlist.

Sure enough, somebody was apparently paying attention, since an observer said his hit “You’re Beautiful” was added to the authorities’ playlist on Sunday.

END

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1333 UP .0004 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED

USA/ YEN 115.38 UP 0.260 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3540 UP 0.0012

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 34.07 PTS OR 0.98%

Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 350.09 PTS OR1.417%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.26% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 350.09 PTS OR .141%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 34.07 PTS OR 0.98%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.26%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 616.49 PTS OR 2.23%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1855.00

silver:$23.66-

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 96.13 UP 5 CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.17% UP 0 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.218% down 1 AND 2/10 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.21%// UP 2 in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.97 UP 1 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 77 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.274% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.70% AND NOW ABOVE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1304 DOWN .0025 or 25 basis points

USA/Japan: 115.62 UP 0.438 OR YEN DOWN 44 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3522 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN 26 pts to 1.2739

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED )..UP 6.3576

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.3583

TURKISH LIRA: 13.61 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.218

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 2.016% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.326 UP 8 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.33 UP 25 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 135.47 PTS OR 1.77%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 177.32 points or 2.53%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 337.86PTS OR 2.19%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 236.70PTS OR 2.69%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 610.69 PTS OR 2.26%

WTI Oil price 91.51 12: EST

Brent Oil: 92.91 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE FALLS: 76.95 THE CROSS HIGHER BY 15 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 15 BASIS PTS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.274

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1304 DOWN .0025 OR 25 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3529 UP .0001 or 1 basis pt

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 115.56 UP .438

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2720 UP .0011 (cdn dollar DOWN 11 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 94.80

Brent: 96.06

USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.986 UP 4 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.292 UP 4 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.80

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 76.82 UP 2 BASIS PTS (ROUBLE DOWN 2 PTS)

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 171,89 PTS OR 0.49%

NASDAQ 100 UP 14.76 OR 0.10%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 28.81 UP 1.45 PTS (UP 5.30.%

GLD/NYSE CLOSING PRICE $174.77 UP $0.96 OR 0.55%

SLV/NYSE CLOSING PRICE: $22.05// UP $.22 OR 1.01%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Ukraine Sparks Market Mayhem As Traders See Fed Panic Ahead, Price-In Rate-Cuts Next Year

MONDAY, FEB 14, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Clown market exposed once again…

Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy spooked markets with what turned out to be a sarcastic comment about the rest of the world predicting a date for a Russian attack, which he said should be a day of unity instead.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1493312293647654916&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fukraine-sparks-market-mayhem-traders-see-fed-panic-ahead-price-rate-cuts-next-year&sessionId=4b9dbb87deb2586f5b4ea6833fe951836fb2e414&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=0a8eea3%3A1643743420422&width=550px

Earlier in the day, St.Louis Fed’s Jim Bullard was on CNBC for what many expected to be a mea culpa walkback of his hawkish comments. Instead he doubled down on the need for accelerating, front-loading rate-hikes and QT and warned “The Fed’s credibility is on the line.”

That sent the odds of a 50bps hike in March jumping higher…

Source: Bloomberg

But, the market is now predicting The Fed’s tightening cycle will be swift, aggressive, and over very quickly.

At the same time as rate-hike odds this year soar, the forward-OIS curve is increasingly inverted, pricing in a rate-cut next year…

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, as Bloomberg’s Ed Bolingbroke notes, in the eurodollar futures markets, the spread between the December 2023 and December 2025 contracts has dropped further into negative territory on Monday – implying a near-25 basis point cut in the federal funds benchmark over this 24-month timeframe.

Which makes sense given that the forward Treasury curve implies a 2s30s inversion one year out, signaling recessionary fears being priced in…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks were a shitshow of vertical buying and selling panics. Mounting tension overnight sent futures down hard, then they ripped higher on Lavrov’s “diplomatic” comments. Stocks dumped after Bullard’s hawkish comments, then were bid into the European close. Then Zelenskiy joked about Putin invading on Wednesday and stocks puked again, only to rebound when it was made clear he was being ironic, leaving Nasdaq around unchanged and the red of the majors in the red

VIX continues to play catch-up to credit’s anxiety…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were just as choppy, triggered one way by Bullard and the other by Zelenskiy and so on wit the short-end underperforming on the day (2Y +8bps, 30Y+5bps). 10Y tested 2,00% but could not hold it…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve flattened on the day though, building momentum towards an implied Fed policy error…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied back to 2-week highs, just above the pre-FOMC levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably the dollar broke back above its 50DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin has traded in a relatively narrow range for the last three days, pumping-and-dumping each day and finding support at $42k…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, Bitcoin is finding support (in a downtrend) at its 50DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ripped back up to $1875 – 3 month highs…

Oil dumped and pumped on every headline of tensions easing and escalating…

But we’re still waiting for that imminent invasion…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1493280826741690373&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fukraine-sparks-market-mayhem-traders-see-fed-panic-ahead-price-rate-cuts-next-year&sessionId=4b9dbb87deb2586f5b4ea6833fe951836fb2e414&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=0a8eea3%3A1643743420422&width=550px

Finally, something odd happened in the gold/bond futures markets today.

A major spike in TY futs volume around 1130ET marked the lows in gold futures. Then a major spike in gold futures around 1330ET market the highs of the day in TY futs…

No idea what’s going on there, but we will leave you this champion (in more ways than one!)…

And remember the last the Rams (St.Louis) won the Super Bowl?

I) /EARLY MORNING TRADING/

5 am in the morning!

S&P Futures Surge, Yields Jump After Lavrov Proposed To Putin To Continue Talks With The West

MONDAY, FEB 14, 2022 – 08:11 AM

Having sunk near session lows ahead of the US open, futures suddenly spike higher, pulling 10Y yields and the Russian ruble alone for the ride, when comments from Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov who was addressing the press alongside Putin, eased investor nerves for an “imminent” – in the words of the US deep state – invasion.

Speaking across what may be the longest table in the world…

… Lavrov initially told Putin responses to Russian security proposals from the EU and NATO have not been satisfactory, noting that Russia will try to get responses from all EU countries.

Setting an early bitter mood, Lavrov also said NATO is trying to dictate rules in Europe and Russia is not satisfied with U.S. view on alliance’s expansion adding that part of US response to security demands were unsatisfactory but part of the response was more constructive. Lavrov then noted that Russia’s proposals should be taken into account as a whole, adding that indefinite talks are not possible.

However, what sent futures surging, was Lavrov comment that he supports continuing diplomatic talks with the West in response to a question on whether “there was a chance for agreement” on key issues, and that he can see a way to move forward with talks.

Putin responded “all right” to Lavrov’s proposal, which was the trigger for a sharp spike in futs…

… which were bracing for the worst after the latest lies from the US state department on Friday, which said that an imminent Russian invasion was on deck. The comment also sparked some selling in safe havens such as 10Y Treasurys whose yields jumped…

… the dollar sank…

… while the ruble jumped to session highs on Lavrov’s comment.

And while futures are now trading near session highs, we now look forward to Bullard’s comment in 20 minutes on CNBC to bring it all back down again…

END

then 9 am//Bullard at it again!

“Our Credibility Is On The Line” – Stocks, Bonds Sink As Fed’s Bullard Reiterates Hawkish Stance

MONDAY, FEB 14, 2022 – 08:52 AM

With many expecting/hoping for the usual ‘walk-back’ by St,Louis Fed’s Jim Bullard this morning – after unleashing some chaos with his reality check on inflation fighting last week – his interview with CNBC this morning did anything but, rather reiterating the need for quick aggressive action to raise rates and his efforts to persuade the rest of the committee of the need to act decisively and soon:

“We need to front load more of our planned removal of accommodation than we would have previously.”

Additional headlines, via Bloomberg, suggest voting-member Bullard is ready to push this hawkish agenda across the whole board…

*BULLARD: FED MUST REASSURE PEOPLE IT WILL DEFEND INFLATION TGT
*BULLARD: INITIAL RATE HIKES, BAL-SHEET RUNOFF RELATIVELY CHEAP
*BULLARD: HAVE BEEN PUSHING CMTE TO MOVE FASTER SINCE SUMMER
*BULLARD: COULD HAVE MOVED ASSET BUYS UP FASTER IN RETROSPECT
*BULLARD: I’M A LITTLE MORE WORRIED WE’RE NOT MOVING FAST ENOUGH
*BULLARD: HAVE A LONG WAYS TO GO IF WE WANT TO BE RESTRICTIVE
*BULLARD: WOULD WANT TO START PASSIVE BAL-SHEET RUNOFF IN 2Q

Bullard was very frank about at least one thing: “our credibility is on the line here…”

Stocks sank back after the rebound on Russia comments…

Treasury yields are extending their spike with 10Y Yields pushing back towards 2.00%…

And 2Y Yields are back near Bullard spike highs from last week…

And finally, the market is now pricing in a 75% chance of 50bps hike in March…

Will any of the other Fed speakers now come out to play good-cop?

II) USA DATA

IIb) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATE STORIES

They should never be authorized!

(Stieber/EpochTimes)

In Major Setback For Pfizer, FDA Postpones Decision On Drugmaker’s Covid Jab For Young Children

FRIDAY, FEB 11, 2022 – 05:22 PM

By Zachary Stieber of The Epoch Times

U.S. drug regulators on Feb. 11 announced they are pushing back a decision on whether to authorize Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for children as young as 6 months old.

The Food and Drug Administration had planned to consult its vaccine advisory committee on Feb. 15 on the jab for young children and could have granted emergency use authorization (EUA) for the shot within hours of the meeting. But that plan has changed, based on a preliminary assessment of data Pfizer sent on Feb. 1.

FDA officials now believe that they cannot clear the shot for children aged 6 months to 4 years until they receive data from an ongoing trial examining a three-dose regimen for the age group.

“The data that we saw made us realize that we needed to see data from a third dose, as in the ongoing trial, in order to make it the term determination that we could proceed with doing an authorization,” Dr. Peter Marks, the director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, told reporters on a call.

“I think parents can feel reassured that we have set a standard by which we feel that if something does not meet that standard, we can’t proceed forward,” he added.

Multiple panel members declined interview requests before Friday’s announcement. Dr. Eric Rubin, a member who serves as editor-in-chief of the New England Journal of Medicine, told The Epoch Times in an email that it was “difficult to draw any conclusions at this point” because members had not seen the data.

Every American aged 5 or older can currently get Pfizer’s two-dose primary regimen.

The trial testing the regimen on young children, which Pfizer and its partner, BioNTech, are running, showed the two doses triggered an adequate immune response for children aged 6 months to 1 year, but did not in children aged 2 to 4, the companies announced in December 2021. They said at the time that they planned to test a three-dose regimen for toddlers.

But the FDA soon after asked the companies to send data over due to concerns about the spike in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations among all age groups driven by the Omicron variant of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, which causes COVID-19. Pfizer and BioNTech then, on Feb. 1, requested the EUA for the new youngest age group.

COVID-19 cases, particularly those caused by Omicron, in children rarely lead to severe disease or death, but some parents and health groups have been pressuring the FDA to greenlight the jab for the this new age group, arguing that doing so would help protect the children against infection and hospitalization.

Critics note that the Pfizer vaccine and the two others authorized for use in the United States have gone down in effectiveness against more recent strains, especially Omicron, and that getting toddlers vaccinated is not worth the risk, given the possible side effects.

Pfizer and BioNTech in a joint statement said the companies plan to extend the rolling submission of data for the EUA request.

“Given that the study is advancing at a rapid pace, the companies will wait for the three-dose data as Pfizer and BioNTech continue to believe it may provide a higher level of protection in this age group,” they said. “The extension allows the FDA time to receive updated data on the two and three-dose regimen, conduct a thorough evaluation of it and facilitate a robust, public discussion.”

An independent monitoring committee overseeing the study supports continuing it and believes “that the data collected to date indicate the vaccine is well tolerated and support a potential three-dose regimen,” the companies also said.

The updated data is expected in early April.

“Once the next tranches of data come in, we will be looking at them in an expeditious manner,” Marks said. The decision could very well be based on actual clinical data as opposed to the immunobridging analysis, or comparison of immune responses among children to immune responses in a set of adults, he agreed.

end

Jerk!

Watch: Biden Declares “Personal Freedom” Comes Second To COVID Mandates

MONDAY, FEB 14, 2022 – 02:20 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Joe Biden managed to cobble together a sentence during an interview with NBC’s Lester Holt over the weekend, declaring that his message to people who want COVID to be over is that their personal freedoms come second to his mandates.

“What’s your message to people who want desperately for [Covid] to be over and to be able to resume the lives they remember?” Holt asked Biden.

“If your exercising personal freedom puts someone else in jeopardy, their health in jeopardy, I don’t consider that freedom,” Biden sarcastically stated in response, before telling people who don’t want to continue wearing masks or getting jabs to “think of the children.”

Watch:

Someone should get the memo to Biden that it’s election season, and his unscientific mandates are not conducive to winning votes.

A CNN poll revealed Sunday that a majority of Democrats now don’t even want Biden as the nominee in 2024.

The survey noted that just 45 percent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning voters want Biden to run for reelection, with 51 percent saying they believe someone else should be the nominee.

In addition, the survey found that “While 70 percent of Democratic voters who strongly approve of the way he’s handling the job said they’d like to see him renominated, that drops to just 35 percent among Democrats who said they approve moderately.”

* * *

The Mask Is Off: Illinois Has No Science Behind Its School Masking Mandate

MONDAY, FEB 14, 2022 – 05:00 PM

Authored by Mark Glennon via Wirepoints.org,

Last week an Illinois reporter finally asked what scientific support the state has for mandating masks on school children. At the Wednesday press conference, Gov. JB Pritzker had Dr. Emily Landon, one of his top COVID policy advisors, give the answer.

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has a whole web page on it, Landon answered, and she vaguely referenced some Minnesota study (which we cannot find and Landon did not identify). The video is here…

That’s it. That’s all we have ever gotten from the Pritzker Administration on its science behind masks on kids, so that is what we will look at in this column.

There was no follow up question and, as always, no reporter confronted Pritzker or his advisors with the vast evidence and expert opinion now published showing that masks on school kids have little if any value, which in any event is outweighed by harm being done to our children.

Since Illinois has blindly followed all CDC guidance on COVID, we will also look beyond the web page Landon referred to and consider other claims the CDC and Landon have made on the subject.

The CDC page Landon apparently was referring to is linked here. It’s what the Illinois Department of Public Health sent me when I asked for it and any other science they cared to offer. They also referred me to Landon directly, whom I emailed for the same, though she never responded.

Look through that CDC page yourself if you want. Go to the “Mask use” section. That’s the only portion relevant to whether masking school kids is worth it. Among the problems that should be immediately apparent:

The studies cited on the CDC page lump masking in with a variety of other mitigation measures, rendering them useless as a measure of the efficacy of masks on children.
All the supposed science was written before the December arrival of the omicron variant, rendering it meaningless. Omicron defeats masks far more easily because it is far more contagious than earlier variants and accounts for almost all current COVID infections.
Most importantly, none of the material cited by the CDC attempts to weigh any supposed benefit of masks on school children against the vast harm done to them and their education.

Illinois has long followed CDC guidance reflexively and without scrutiny, yet it’s difficult to imagine how anybody following the subject affords any credibility to the CDC.

It still has never bothered to run a randomized, controlled test on masking, which is the standard scientists look for. Instead, it squelched its own study showing masks are ineffective on school kids. In November, we collected more of its suppressed evidence, distortions, fabricated studies and outright falsehoods here. They include the ridiculous earlier claim by the CDC director that masks can reduce your chances of getting a COVID-19 infection by 80%. Harvard medical school’s Martin Kuldorff retweeted a note saying “Not a single paper supports this made-up 80% figure.” The claim was “preposterous,” wrote Stanford epidemiology Professor Jay Battacharya.

Since then, the CDC has only gotten worse. To support its policy on school masking, the CDC this month released a study done in California purportedly showing mask effectiveness. It has been savaged by leading scientists. “The paper is entirely, irredeemably flawed. Its flaws are so evident that it should not have been published nor promoted,” wrote Vinay Prasad of the University of California.

“When it comes to masks, the CDC is its own worst enemy,” says a recent column in Newsweek.
“The CDC spread what amounts to misinformation in its promotion of cloth masks, which countless medical experts have said are useless against Omicron, the dominant COVID-19 variant in the United States.”

“In this case and others, the [CDC] has proven that it cannot be trusted to act as an honest broker of scientific information,” as columns in Reason have documented.

The biggest and most cited study on masking in general was conducted in Bangladesh. It was randomized and controlled. It found zero indication that cloth masks work.

Cloth masks are overwhelmingly what school kids use – by necessity because higher quality masks don’t typically fit children and are far less comfortable to wear through a school day.

Landon, however, has long been an extreme zealot on cloth masks.

Dr. Emily Landon at an earlier Pritzker press conference

“Cloth masks are our lifeline,” she aggressively claimed in an earlier speech extolling cloth masks, specifically.

“So please,” she said, “never leave the house without your face covering. And always put it on when you go inside another building or if you’re near other people outside. Soon, I promise, it will be as natural as wearing pants, which most of us are pretty good about.” In truth the science behind masks was questionable even before COVID, as discussed here.

Another study frequently cited by the CDC supposedly justifying masking kids was conducted in Arizona. It, too, has been ridiculed. It “turns out to have been profoundly misleading,” wrote the Atlantic. “You can’t learn anything about the effects of school mask mandates from this study” says the column, quoting a public-health economist at Arizona State University,

For a more thorough review of the why CDC mask studies prove nothing, see The Case Against Masks at School in The Atlantic. The overall takeaway from their studies, it says, is the claim that schools with mask mandates have lower COVID-19 transmission rates than schools without mask mandates “is not justified by the data that have been gathered.”

Landon earlier emphasized that the sacrifice is not just for one’s self but for others. “It’s because we have the grit and the compassion to make sacrifices for the good of our community, for people we don’t even know,” she has said.

In truth, the opposite is true regarding masking school kids. The mandate on kids is adult selfishness. Kids face no material risk from COVID, which has been long known. The only rationale for masking them would be protecting adults – if only masks worked.

Landon recently tweeted this:

” I really find it funny that people think we can just decide to be done with #covid…. We have to actually do stuff to make covid have less impact.”

That’s “funny”?

Is it funny that so many nations are “done” with COVID mandates of any kind and have dropped all COVID measures, including the United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway?

Is it funny that states like Florida and Wisconsin, which have imposed no masking or other mandates of any kind, have had fewer COVID deaths than Illinois, age-adjusted and per capita?

Is it funny that 39 states have no mask mandates?

Is it funny that the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control recommends against the use of masks for any children in primary school.

It would be funny that she thinks it’s funny, except the risks and consequences for school kids forced to wear masks are so severe. We are only beginning to understand the harm being done to children, but the evidence so far is frightening. The American Institute for Economic Research has a particularly comprehensive report on masks, and lists the following harms:

(i) difficulty with breathing
(ii) inhalation of toxic substancessuch as microplastics and chlorine compounds located in the masks (these are potentially serious risks)
(iii) CO2 intoxication
(iv) sudden cardiac arrestseen in children
(v) a reduction in blood oxygenation (hypoxia) or an elevation in blood CO2 (hypercapnia)
(vi) psychological damage
(vii) (N95 masks) a reduction in the PaO2 level, increases in respiratory rate, and increases the occurrence of chest discomfort and respiratory distress with prolonged use
(viii) dizziness and light-headedness, headaches especially among healthcare workers
(ix) bacterial and mould buildupin children’s masks that can then be inhaled
(x) anxiety and sleep problems, behavioral disorders and fear of contaminationin children
(xi) deoxygenation during surgery
(xii) potentially life-threatening damage to the lungs (e.g. Stanford engineers report that masks can make it much more difficult to breathe, estimating that N95 masks as an example, reduce oxygen intake from 5% to 20% and if worn for a prolonged period)
(xiii) as reported by Koops, facial skin infections, nose/throat and sinus infections, a change in breathing patterns.

You won’t hear any of that from the CDC, Landon or any other Illinois public health officials. They simply have never bothered to make a case comparing even alleged benefits of school masking to the harm being done.

If there’s any good to come out of this pandemic it may be the lesson our young people are learning about skepticism that must be shown toward dogmatic rule by government and supposed experts. Aside from the dead and their loved ones, it is they who have been treated most cruelly during the pandemic. And that cruelty has been deliberate, with children being been used as pawns in a mindless attempt to protect adults. May they never forget.

iii) USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//

Used cars are surging in price and that is causing our CPI to rise exponentially

(zerohedge)

Used Cars Are Surging In Price, Here’s The 10 Models That Are Leading The Price Explosion

MONDAY, FEB 14, 2022 – 04:15 AM

It’s been no secret that the price of used cars continues to rocket higher, as we have been writing about for months.

This week, the Wall Street Journal released a list of the Top 10 vehicles that were at the tip of the spear of the rising prices. Leading the charge was the unlikely Dodge Caravan, followed by the Nissan Versa and Toyota Prius.

While not aesthetically pleasing, the top three cars on the list are notably utilitarian: the Caravan can seat many passengers, the Versa has trunk space and the Prius gets great gas milage, as a hybrid. This could be a clue that new drivers are worried more about function over form.

And, with YOY increases of 69%, 66% and 61%, respectively, it looks like they’re willing to pay for function. Ivan Drury, senior insights manager for Edmunds, told the Journal that “bargain hunters are seeking the most affordable options, rather than looking for the newest or flashiest car.”

The list continues with the Kia Forte, the Volvo S60 and the Chevy Sonic. Their prices have risen an astronomical 58%, 56% and 55%, respectively.

Recall, we wrote just days ago that Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a wholesale tracker of used car prices, rose to a new record high in January. Prices of wholesale used cars continued to move higher.

Over the last year, the used car market boomed because of a chip shortage for new vehicles. The latest data from Manheim shows that even though prices increased for January, momentum could be stalling (and, in fact reversing). The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index expanded slightly to 236.3 last month, up 45% from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change declined about a percent compared to December, leaving the unadjusted average price up 40.8% year-over-year.

The chart below is the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index on a monthly timeframe with two single-banded momentum indicators showing yet another infect point. The last two infection points turned out to be false flags as the index powered higher on persistent supply chain woes. Now we have credible leading indicators that may suggest this time is different.

There’s growing speculation from JP Morgan that global supply chain constraints have passed their climax. Focusing on major transpacific shipping lanes, we find container prices have reversed in some cases. Shipping rates are leading indicators that may suggest chip shortage could soon abate.

Last month, Jared Bernstein, a member of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, revealed used car prices should “revert” once “underlying supply constraint eases.”

iii) USA economic stories

First time homebuyer affordability worsens as mortgage rates climb

(zerohedge)

First-Time Homebuyer Affordability Worsens As Mortgage Rates Jump Most Since 2013 Taper Tantrum

SATURDAY, FEB 12, 2022 – 09:55 AM

Housing unaffordability soared to a three-year high and could progressively worsen as the monetary wonks at the Federal Reserve prepare for one of the most aggressive (and possibly most ambitious) rate hike cycles in decades. If the Fed gets six or more rate hikes in before December – as the market is pricing-in currently – mortgage rates could scream higher, driving unaffordability to levels that could then reverse the red hot housing market.

“The strength of price gains are associated with the strength of the local job market, but the escalating prices took a toll on home shoppers, compelling many to come up with extra cash, and forcing others to delay making a purchase altogether,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.
“A number of families, especially would-be first-time buyers, are increasingly being forced out of the market, and this is why supply is critical to expanding homeownership opportunity.”

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports mortgage payments for first-time homebuyers in the fourth quarter of 2021 jumped to 25.6% of their household incomes, the highest in three years and up 3.2 percentage points from the same quarter last year.

Soaring home prices and rising mortgage rates are a dangerous cocktail for first-time homebuyers.

“Homebuyers in the last quarter saw little relief as home prices continued to climb, albeit not as fast as earlier in the year,” said Yun.
“The increasing prices are indicative of a seller’s market, with an abundance of eager buyers and very limited supply.”

NAR said the increases added about $200 to a typical home-loan payment. The 28/36 rule, a personal finance guide that limits how much money should go to housing costs and monthly debt payments, shouldn’t exceed 28% of a household’s monthly pre-tax income and 36% of total debt; this is also known as the debt-to-income ratio.

The squeeze in affordability will worsen if mortgage rates soar. St.Louis Fed president Jim Bullard went full hawktard Thursday after the Biden White House appears to have greenlit The Fed to crash the economy:

*FED’S BULLARD FAVORS 100 BPS INTEREST-RATE INCREASES BY JULY 1
*BULLARD FAVORS FIRST HALF-POINT U.S. RATE INCREASE SINCE 2000

Bullard’s hawkish statements come as mortgage rates topped 4% and have experienced the most significant multi-month jump since the taper tantrum days of 2013.

As the cost of borrowing rises and the median price for an existing single-family house jumped 14.6% last quarter to $361,700, it appears red hot home prices could begin to cool.

But, for now, as RedFin notes, only 2.8% of listings saw any price drop…

“Movers are feeling a big pinch. There is nowhere for them to run from increasing housing costs now that mortgage rates are rising and inflation has spread to the rental market,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather.

Perhaps, amid all this rate-hiking gloom, there is a silver-lining for anxious first-time homebuyers as The Fed controls the short-end only in its attempt to quell inflation – raising the cost of funds for institutional investors who have dominated the real estate markets in recent years…

…and perhaps, just perhaps, removing that (investor) marginal buyer that has bid prices to record levels of unaffordability, especially in these cities (10 cities with most investor activity in real estate)…

…and at the same time, the longer-end of the yield curve will come under pressure from Fed policy error and recessionary concerns…

…potentially lowering mortgage rates for the average homebuyer and improving affordability.

That is hope, not a strategy, but still – the American Dream may just peak back through for today’s first-time homeowners sometime soon.

end

Special thanks to Doug C for providing this for us:

Mortgage Rates Hit 4.02%. Two-Year Yield Spikes by Most since 2009. Ten-Year Yield Goes over 2%. All Heck Breaks Loose | Wolf Street

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love his charts

Mortgage Rates Hit 4.02%. Two-Year Yield Spikes by Most since 2009. Ten-Year Yield Goes over 2%. All Heck Breaks Loose

Mortgage Rates Hit 4.02%. Two-Year Yield Spikes by Most since 2009. Ten-Year Yield Goes over 2%. All Heck Breaks Loose

by Wolf Richter • Feb 10, 2022 • 235 Comments

by Wolf Richter • •

**Yields and rate-hike expectations spike. A rate hike now?**

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The probability of a 50 basis-point hike at the FOMC meeting on March 16 spiked to 90% this afternoon, based on CME 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices, after this morning’s hair-raising inflation data for January, and after St. Louis Fed President Bullard’s talk on Bloomberg. The spike in inflation is now infesting services and has spread deep and wide into the economy. A 50-basis-point hike would bring the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate to range between .50% and 0.75% (Fed Rate Hike Monitor via Investing.com):

“There was a time when the Committee would have reacted to something like this [the hair-raising inflation report] with having a meeting right now and doing a 25 basis points right now,” said Bullard, formerly biggest dove in the house. “I think we should be nimble and considering that kind of thing,” he said.

“I don’t think this is shock-and-awe,” Bullard said about the 50-basis point hike, as markets are already pricing it in. “I think it’s a sensible response to a surprise inflationary shock that we got in 2021 that we did not expect,” he said.

All kinds of economists are now being cited in the media – this started a few weeks ago and has intensified since then – saying that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points on March 16, such as Citi economists today; or that the Fed should raise rates by 50 basis points, or that the Fed shouldn’t even wait till March 16.

In terms of quantitative tightening (QT), Bullard said that the Fed could essentially reduce its balance sheet at about the same pace that it had added to it, that pace having been $120 billion a month.

And this should include a “second phase” when the Fed sells bonds outright, rather than just letting them run off the balance sheet when they mature, he said.

“As a general principle, I see no reason why you can’t remove accommodation just as fast as you added accommodation, especially in an environment where you have the highest inflation in 40 years,” Bullard said.

And all heck broke loose in Treasury yields.

The two-year Treasury yield spiked by 25 basis points to 1.61% at the close, the biggest one-day leap since June 5, 2009 during the freak moments of the Financial Crisis. Now it’s not a crisis. Now it’s just the bond market, which had been in total denial until November, coming to grips with inflation and the Fed’s efforts to crack down on inflation. Jawboning by the Fed is finally working, at least a little bit:

With this 25 basis-point spike, the two-year yield reached 1.61%, the highest close since December 24, 2019. In real terms, adjusted for CPI inflation, the two-year yield is still hugely negative, at -5.89%. So despite the spike, it is still a terribly mispriced bond given the huge amount of inflation:

The one-year Treasury yield spiked by 23 basis points to 1.14% at the close, the highest since February 27, 2020:

The 10-year Treasury yield blew through the 2% line, jumping by 9 basis points to 2.03%, the highest close since July 2019:

And mortgage rates, good lordy.

The average of the 30-year fixed mortgage rates quoted today spiked to 4.02% in the top tier scenario, above 4% for the first time since May 2019, according to daily data from Mortgage News Daily, with lenders quoting between 3.625% and 4.375% at the top tier.

This is fast moving: Freddie Mac’s weekly measure of the average 30-year fixed rate, released today, at 3.69%, was based on surveys that most mortgage bankers filled out on Monday. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported yesterday that based on surveys earlier this week, the 30-year fixed rate rose to 3.83%.

The most reckless Fed ever.

The Fed has compounded policy error with policy error ever since March 2020, with its interest rate repression and massive QE that it maintains even today, despite 7.5% inflation. Anything it would do to tighten going forward would just be feeble efforts that are too little and too late, to mitigate the effects of 22 months of massive policy error after policy error.

So now the Fed has created this crazy situation where the interest rate that the Fed is repressing with its policy rates, the effective federal funds rate (EFFR), is a near-zero (0.08%), while CPI inflation is 7.5%, producing the widest spread between the two going to 1955.

Back in the high-inflation periods in the 1970s and early 1980s, the EFFR was nearly always higher than CPI inflation and in some periods much higher. In fact, until the Financial Crisis, the EFFR was nearly always higher than the rate of CPI inflation. The radical monetary policies of interest rate repression during the Financial Crisis changed this relationship. Blue line = EFFR, red line = CPI.

In “real” terms, adjusted for CPI inflation, the “real” EFFR is a negative 7.4%, the most negative real EFFR in the data going back to 1954. This is the result of policy error after policy error:

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This is getting worse by the day: huge shortage of pharmaceuticals

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

“We’re At End Days Here” – US Faces Rampant Shortages Of 116 Different Pharmaceutical Drugs

SATURDAY, FEB 12, 2022 – 08:00 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Global supplies of pharmaceutical drugs are getting tighter and tighter, and this has very serious implications for 2022 and beyond. If you depend upon a certain pharmaceutical drug in order to stay alive, I would recommend doing whatever you can to make sure that you have as much of that drug stockpiled as possible, because a day may come when you are unable to get any more for an extended period of time. Much of our drug production has been outsourced to China, and our relations with China are not going so well right now. In fact, the moment that China invades Taiwan we are going to have a major league national crisis on our hands.

Let me try to explain this one step at a time.

The FDA regularly keeps a list of pharmaceutical drug shortages. According to that list, there were 112 drug shortages in the U.S. in November, and there were 114 drug shortages in the U.S. as of January 11th…

Nationwide, more than 100 drugs are in short supply, including antibiotics, diuretics, opioids and heart failure medications, FDA data shows.
As of Jan. 11, 114 drugs were in shortage, according to the FDA’s database of current and resolved drug shortages, which is updated daily. The current tally is a continuation of shortage levels seen last year. In November 2021, the FDA reported 112 drug shortages.

I wanted information that was more up to date than that, so I went over and checked out the latest FDA drug shortage list for myself.

There are 165 entries on the list right now, but 49 of them have been resolved.

Subtracting 49 from 165 gives us a total of 116 pharmaceutical drug shortages in the United States at this moment.

That is shocking.

What are people supposed to do if they can’t get the drugs that they need?

Unfortunately, this is another area where we have outsourced a tremendous amount of production to China.

Today, a whopping 97 percent of all antibiotics purchased in the United States come from China.

Just think about that.

If our supplies of antibiotics were suddenly cut off, a whole lot of Americans would die.

And it isn’t just antibiotics that we are talking about. According to one expert, if China suddenly cut off the flow of pharmaceutical drugs many of our hospitals “would cease to function within months, if not days”…

As the U.S. defense establishment grows increasingly concerned about China’s potentially hostile ambitions, the pharmaceutical supply chain is receiving new scrutiny.
“If China shut the door on exports of medicines and their key ingredients and raw material, U.S. hospitals and military hospitals and clinics would cease to function within months, if not days,” said Rosemary Gibson, author of a book on the subject, “China Rx.”

Wow.

This is another example that shows why it was so foolish to become so dependent on manufacturing in China.

For years, I railed against all of the outsourcing that was going on.

But our politicians in Washington didn’t want to listen to voices such as mine.

And so now we are in a very precarious position. If China invades Taiwan, either we have to stand aside and let it happen or we give up most of our medicine.

At this point, things are so bad that we don’t even have a single penicillin plant in the United States anymore…

Other generic drugs whose key ingredients are manufactured in China include medicines for blood pressure medicine, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, epilepsy and depression, Gibson says.
“We can’t make penicillin anymore,” said Gibson. “The last penicillin plant in the United States closed in 2004.”

Isn’t that crazy?

The Chinese have the ability to bring us to our knees without firing a single shot.

For a very long time I have been warning my readers that the U.S. has been playing checkers while China has been playing chess.

They have outmaneuvered our clueless leaders every step of the way, and most Americans didn’t even realize what was happening.

Of course it isn’t just pharmaceutical drugs that are the problem. Western nations have outsourced the production of nearly everything, and now we are facing widespread global shortages that are unlike anything we have ever seen before. I included the following quote in an article that I posted yesterday, but I think that it is so important that I am going to share it again…

In a time when social networks have been swamped with photos of empty shelves from across the nation, Goldman’s head commodity strategist and one of the closest-followed analysts on Wall Street, said he’s never seen commodity markets pricing in the shortages they are right now.
“I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie told Bloomberg TV in an interview on Monday. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

I don’t know if I have sufficient words to express the seriousness of what we are now facing.

A horrifying global meltdown has already begun, and it is only going to get worse.

Earlier today, I came across a video clip in which former BlackRock executive Edward Dowd warned that “we are at the end days here”.

Needless to say, he was specifically addressing the state of the financial markets, but his statement could definitely be applied on a much broader basis.

We have entered a period of great crisis, but many people still don’t understand this.

A lot of times, people don’t grasp what is taking place until it affects them personally. In recent weeks, I have gotten emails from numerous readers about the issues that they are encountering at their local pharmacies. In the old days, getting drugs that were prescribed was a snap, but now there are times when people have had to wait weeks or even months to get their drugs.

If you still believe that this is “temporary”, you haven’t been paying attention.

Our entire system is melting down, and what we have experienced so far is just the beginning.

* * *

It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

iv)swamp stories

Extremely important…

Durham: Clinton Allies Spied On The Executive Office Of The President

SATURDAY, FEB 12, 2022 – 01:00 PM

Submitted by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

The Michael Sussmann case is heating up.

On February 11, 2022, Durham filed the Government’s Motion to Inquire into Potential Conflicts of Interest in the Michael Sussmann case. Read it here. As you might recall, Sussmann was charged with giving false statements to then-FBI General Counsel James Baker regarding the interests he was representing in pushing to the FBI the Alfa Bank/Trump Organization hoax. More background information on the Sussmann indictment can be found here.

The basis for the motion is that Sussmann’s current counsel, Latham & Watkins LLP (Latham) might have a conflict of interest because Latham previously represented Perkins Coie and Mark Elias “in this investigation.” It is alleged that Latham “likely possesses confidential knowledge about Perkins Coie’s role in, and views concerning, Sussmann’s past activities.” (Cleaned up.)

There might also be a conflict because Latham was representing both the Clinton Campaign and Hillary for America in the Special Counsel’s investigation. Durham observes that Latham’s duties to these former clients “might cause its interests to diverge from those of [Sussmann].”

Why might there be a conflict?

Because Durham might offer evidence at trial he obtained from the Clinton Campaign and Hillary for America.

We previously discussed how Rodney Joffe (identified as Tech Executive-1 in the Sussmann indictment and in the latest filing discussing the conflict) exploited proprietary – and perhaps classified – data provided by DARPA to further their own political attacks, and how that might result in charges. It was later confirmed that two former DARPA employees have given grand jury testimony, so it appears Durham is following this track.

I provide that background because of what we just learned. Durham also divulged, to an extent, that contractors and tech experts – those same people involved in the Alfa Bank hoax – essentially spied on President Trump.

According to Durham, Joffe and his associates exploited internet data from “the Executive Office of the President of the United States” to further their own political agenda. They had come to possess this data as part of a “sensitive arrangement” with the U.S. government. As Durham explains:

Joffe and his associates manipulated this information to further a conspiracy theory that Trump and those in Trump’s orbit were continuing their secret backchannels with the Russians. This was repackaged with the Alfa Bank hoax and given to Sussmann, who then laundered it to the CIA on February 9, 2017. Sussmann alleged to the CIA that the data showed “that Trump and/or his associates were using supposedly rare, Russian-made wireless phones in the vicinity of the White House and other locations.” Durham “identified no support for these allegations.”

One can’t help ask why Joffe (via Sussmann) risked legal exposure to continue to push false Trump-Russia allegations before and after the 2016 election. First to the FBI in 2016 then to the CIA in 2017. It seems that Joffe was desperate, and his desperation only increased after Trump’s election.

The source of Joffe’s desperation? It’s speculation at this point, but perhaps it goes to the origins of the purported Russia/DNC hack. To revise a previous question we have asked:

What if Crowdstrike was a patsy, there to unknowingly reach false conclusions of a “Russian hack” based on fraudulent information provided to them by Rodney Joffe and Perkins Coie and the DNC/Hillary Campaign?

We don’t have an answer to that question – yet. Maybe we never will. But if anything, it seems likely that we will see an indictment of Rodney Joffe.

end

Special thanks to G and zero hedge for providing this for us:

‘Bigger Than Watergate’: Trump Furious After Durham Spy Scandal Bombshell, Demands Prosecutions, Reparations — If nothing is really done against these people it will be the end of the USA

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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bigger-watergate-trump-furious-after-durham-spy-scandal-bombshell-demands-prosecutions

‘Bigger Than Watergate’: Trump Furious After Durham Spy Scandal Bombshell, Demands Prosecutions, Reparations

SUNDAY, FEB 13, 2022 – 02:00 PM

Former President Donald Trump issued a blistering response on Saturday after Special Counsel John Durham revealed in a court filing that the Hillary Clinton campaign plotted to infiltrate the Trump campaign along with White House computer servers in order to fabricate allegations of Russian collusion.

“The latest pleading from Special Counsel Robert Durham provides indisputable evidence that my campaign and presidency were spied on by operatives paid by the Hillary Clinton Campaign in an effort to develop a completely fabricated connection to Russia,” reads Trump’s statement.

“This is a scandal far greater in scope and magnitude than Watergate and those who were involved in and knew about this spying operation should be subject to criminal prosecution.”

Like Jake Sullivan – who’s currently leading the US down the war path with Russia over Ukraine?

Needless to say, Trumpworld is pissed…

“Democrat-paid operatives illegally hacked their political opponents’ communications during a presidential campaign and then did it again to a sitting president and the White House staff,” wrote Trump SPAC CEO Devin Nunes said in a statement to journalist Byron York. “These actions are characteristic of third-world dictatorships, not democracies. It is undoubtedly the biggest political scandal of our lifetime.“

Meanwhile a complicit media has barely reported on the Durham bombshell.

BREAKING BOMBSHELL: New Details From Durham Report Reveal Lawyers Tied to Hillary Campaign Spied On Trump WHILE HE WAS PRESIDENT!

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Is this not treason? How does anyone believe they MSM narrative when you understand it is to control your understanding of a pitched narrative over the truth?

BREAKING BOMBSHELL: New Details From Durham Report Reveal Lawyers Tied to Hillary Campaign Spied On Trump WHILE HE WAS PRESIDENT!

end

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

@Convertbond: The last time inflation was here, February 1982 – the Fed Funds Rate was 15%.
https://twitter.com/Convertbond/status/1492079153117638657

Zero Hedge on Thursday night: JPM on today’s action: “Retail investors bought $1.7bn, second highest amount on record”

US equity funds see biggest inflow in six weeks
U.S. equity funds lured massive inflows in the week to Feb. 9 as upbeat earnings reports and signs of easing tensions in Ukraine boosted risk appetite. Refinitiv data showed U.S. equity funds drew $14.2 billion in their biggest weekly purchase since Dec. 29, in contrast to outflows witnessed in the previous three weeks… http://reut.rs/3GMLRP0

@BloombergAsia: Inflation is spiraling and the Fed is turning increasingly hawkish, yet investors continue to pile into U.S. stocks.

Hawkish Fed Cast Aside as Large U.S. Stocks Get Record Weekly Inflow

U.S. large-cap funds draw largest weekly inflows on record
Aggressive Fed isn’t a recipe for big market returns: BofA

Inflation is spiraling and the Federal Reserve is turning increasingly hawkish, yet investors continue to pile into U.S. stocks. U.S. large caps attracted inflows of $34.1 billion in the week to Feb. 9, the most ever, Bank of America Corp. strategists said, citing EPFR Global data. That at a time when the Fed is set to embark on an aggressive rate-hike path that BofA says isn’t a recipe for big market returns…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hawkish-fed-cast-aside-large-110810099.html

ESHs declined sharply during Asian trading on Friday. ESHs hit a session low of 4454.50 at 0:53 ET. They then soared into the European opening, hitting a peak of 4489.25 at 3:13 ET. ESHs then declined smartly until 4:45 ET. They traded sideways until the US repo market opened at 7 ET. Then then soared to a session high of 4507.75 one minute after the NYSE opened at 9:30 ET. After a 23-minute retreat, ESHs spiked to another new high (4520.50).

A big part of the early US rally was because the Fed did not implement an emergency rate hike.

Fed Doesn’t Yet Favor a Half-Point Hike or an Emergency Move
Speculation about a rare inter-meeting Fed move rose in markets Thursday after consumer inflation accelerated to a fresh 40-year high of 7.5% in January, with the annual core rate, excluding food and energy, running at 6% — also the fastest since 1982… St. Louis Fed President James Bullard — who votes on rates this year — said in an interview Thursday that he favors three hikes by July, with one of them being a half-point move…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-11/fed-doesn-t-yet-favor-a-half-point-hike-or-an-emergency-move?srnd=premium

While US equities rallied sharply during the first 30 minutes of NYSE trading, bonds retreated from being modestly positive before the NSYE opening to being down modestly.

The University of Michigan’s Sentiment for February sank to 61.7 from 67.2; 67 was consensus. This is the lowest level of consumer sentiment since October 2011. Current Conditions declined to 68.5 from 72; 72.1 was expected. Expectations tumbled to 57.4 from 64.1; 64.5 was consensus.

The University of Michigan: The recent declines have been driven by weakening personal financial prospects, largely due to rising inflation, less confidence in the government’s economic policies, and the least favorable long term economic outlook in a decade… nearly half of all consumers expecting declines in their inflation adjusted incomes during the year ahead… http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

The UM Sentiment survey explains why The Big Guy and Dems have abysmal approval ratings.

By 13:00 ET, WTI oil was +2.6%, gasoline was +1.7%. Gold turned positive after being negative. At 13:20 ET, ESHs and stocks tumbled on rumors that the Fed would have an emergency meeting on Monday. The politics of hot inflation is the flame at the backside of ‘the inflation is transitory’ cabal.

At 13:40 ET, ESHs were -70.50; bonds soared to +7/8; oil jumped to +4.8%; gold surged to +$14.50. Did Russian invade Ukraine? What about the rumored deal that Putin made with Xi to delay a Ukraine invasion until after the Winter Olympics in China was finished?

Deputy Political Editor at The Telegraph @LOS_Fisher 13:43 ET on Friday: Situation in Ukraine feels increasingly ominous this eve. Boris Johnson just spoke with leaders of US, Italy, Poland, Romania, France, Germany, EU & Nato. No 10 spox: “The Prime Minister told the group that he feared for the security of Europe in the current circumstances.”

The UK urged its citizens to leave Ukraine ASAP.

PBS New Hour’s @nickschifrin: The US believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, and has communicated that decision to the Russian military, three Western and defense officials tell me. The US expects the invasion to begin next week, six US and Western officials tell me, as Secretary of State Antony @SecBlinken said last night.  US officials anticipate a horrific, bloody campaign that begins with two days or aerial bombardment and electronic warfare, followed by an invasion, with the possible goal of regime change.

@AliRogin: This is @nickschifrin’s reporting per three Western and defense officials. Two additional administration officials tell him they expect the invasion to begin next week, as @SecBlinken said publicly last night.

Bonds quickly rescinded over half of its spike rally. However, ESHs continued to sink, falling to -83.00 at 13:46 ET. Oil percolated up to +5.2%; gold hit +$24.00. The markets then went inert. Traders tried to ascertain if the US had accurate intel on Putin or if Team Joey Baby was once again ‘wagging the dog’.

Near 14:00 ET, Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said a Russian invasion during the Olympics is possible. ESHs sank to new lows (4409); bonds spiked 1 point higher in 12 minutes.

Security Advisor @JakeSullivan46 14:05 ET on Friday: We want to be crystal clear on this point: Any American in Ukraine should leave as soon as possible and, in any event, in the next 24 to 48 hours.
   “If you stay, you are assuming risk with no guarantee that there will be any other opportunity to leave, and no prospect of a U.S. military evacuation.”

The ESHs and stocks rebounded while bonds and oil retreated after Sullivan refuted the PBS report:

NBC’s @rafsanchez: Sullivan: “We’re not saying that a final decision has been taken by President Putin [to invade Ukraine]. What we’re saying is we have a sufficient level of concern… that we’re sending this clear message [for Americans to get out of Ukraine].  We can’t pinpoint the day, and we can’t pinpoint the hour, but what we can say is that there’s a credible prospect that a Russian military action could take place before the end of the Olympics.”

White House Journalists Fail to Ask Jake Sullivan About His Past Russia Lie
Sullivan was implicated in Hillary Clinton’s email scandal and admitted to Congress under oath in 2017 that he had briefed reporters about his suspicions of “collusion” between Russia and the Trump campaign… Shortly before Election Day in 2016, Sullivan issued a press statement claiming that Trump had a “secret hotline” to Russia via Alfa Bank. Subsequent investigations by U.S. authorities determined that the Alfa Bank conspiracy theory was false…
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/02/11/white-house-journalists-fail-to-ask-jake-sullivan-about-his-past-russia-lies/

@jacobkschneider: Biden’s National Security Adviser says Biden has no plans to address the nation today, despite having no public events on his schedule aside from jetting off to Camp David for the weekend

@PhilipWegmann: President Biden took selfies and shook hands with staff ahead of his departure to Camp David. Half an hour ago, @JakeSullivan46 told us Russia could invade Ukraine in 24-48 hours. Biden did not take questions.

After a 30-handle ESHs bounce, ESHs and stocks retreated toward their lows. ESHs and stocks then stair steeped lower until 10 minutes before the close. A short-lived spike up then occurred. ESHs and stocks retreated during the final five minutes of trading on Friday.

FDA Postpones Meeting on Pfizer Vaccine for Under 5 Years Old – BBG 14:40 ET

CNBC: Pfizer delays its FDA application to expand its Covid vaccine to kids under 5 until April
As they wait for data on the efficacy of a third dose…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/11/pfizer-delays-its-application-to-the-fda-to-expand-its-covid-vaccine-to-kids-under-5.html

Moderna CEO Just Dumped $400 Million in Stock and Deleted His Twitter Account
Edward Dowd is a former hedge fund manager who started digging into death statistics from insurance companies and funeral homes: He also started accusing Pfizer and Moderna of fraud in the vaccine clinical trials… https://newspunch.com/moderna-ceo-just-dumped-400-million-in-stock-and-deleted-his-twitter-account/

‘Bidenflation’ center of Super Bowl-themed NRCC ad slamming admin over spiking prices
The ad comes as inflation in America hits its highest level in four decades
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bidenflation-center-of-super-bowl-themed-nrcc-ad-slamming-admin-over-spiking-prices

Fed Staff Reported Securities Trades Amid Bank’s 2020 Stimulus Moves
Fed says employees complied with rules, some trades made by family members
    Mr. Stevens reported 46 financial trades on Feb. 27 and Feb. 28, 2020… He reported 566 trades that year, making his list of market trades the most active among the 88 senior Fed board staff whose forms were reviewed by the Journal…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-staff-reported-securities-trades-amid-banks-2020-stimulus-moves-11644588000?tpl=cb

Powell et al had a vested interest in boosting stock prices. Is this why they insanely proclaimed that ‘inflation is transitory’ – so they could continue to force stocks prices higher with QE and dovish braying?

The last Fed QE operation will appear on March 9, 2022 ($4.025B of Treasuries). https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/treasury-securities/treasury-securities-operational-details

Commander in charge of Kabul evacuation slams the White House and Jill Biden for being a ‘distraction’ during chaos: Claims high-profile pestering for special favors to get allies out slowed military down

Vasely said the Pentagon was being pulled in all different directions from Biden officials, lawmakers, members of the media and even the Vatican
He called the requests a ‘distraction’ that created competition for ‘already stressed resources’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10498941/Commander-charge-Kabul-evacuation-slams-White-House-distraction-chaos.html

Biden says he is ‘rejecting’ critical accounts from U.S. commanders about the Afghanistan evacuation – The president, pressed on whether he was rejecting the accounts in the reports, said he was. “Yes, I am,” Biden said. “I am rejecting them.”… The criticism from military officials appeared in a U.S. Army investigative report numbering about 2,000 pages…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/10/biden-afghanistan-evacuation-investigation/

@Jkylebass: Mike Bloomberg, the man whose billion-dollar business embraces China, was just named Chairman of The US Defense Innovation Board at the Pentagon. Everything Bloomberg’s ‘journalists’ write is implicitly approved by China. Bloomberg sells more terminals into China daily. ???
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/02/09/pentagon-taps-bloomberg-to-head-defense-innovation-board/

COVID booster protection likely wanes after 4 months, CDC says https://trib.al/BAbTnAo
(Diphtheria and tetanus boosters last 10 years! Is the Covid booster really a booster?)
Mask Mandates Didn’t Make Much of a Difference Anyway – Op-ed in Bloomberg
The policies clearly didn’t stop omicron. Let’s focus on tactics that have worked better.
   Experts associated with The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota have laid out a more complex analysis: Given the current understanding that the virus is transmitted in fine aerosol particles, it’s likely an infectious dose could easily get through and around loose-fitting cloth or surgical masks… (This was ‘the science’ years ago!!!)
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-11/did-mask-mandates-work-the-data-is-in-and-the-answer-is-no

Averring that masks cannot stop Covid got you banned from social media and excoriated by the MSM. What has changed? We read about the ineffectiveness of cloth and surgical masks vs. Covid in Feb 2020. We bought surgical masks in Feb 2020 and then read about their inadequacies. So, we got N95 masks.

Techno Fog@Techno_Fog: Special Counsel John Durham: DNC/Perkins Coie allies – Rodney Joffe, et al. – exploited a sensitive US govt arrangement” to gather intel on the “Executive Office of the President of the U.S.” They spied on Trump.  https://twitter.com/Techno_Fog/status/1492520154156126211
      This wasn’t limited to the Office of the President of the U.S. They also exploited data from Trump Tower, another Trump building, and a “healthcare provider.”
https://twitter.com/Techno_Fog/status/1492522413925486592

Durham: Clinton allies spied on the Executive Office of the President
And – will we see a Rodney Joffe indictment?
    Joffe and his associates manipulated this information to further a conspiracy theory that Trump and those in Trump’s orbit were continuing their secret backchannels with the Russians. This was repackaged with the Alfa Bank hoax and given to Sussmann, who then laundered it to the CIA on February 9, 2017…
     One can’t help ask why Joffe (via Sussmann) risked legal exposure to continue to push false Trump-Russia allegations before and after the 2016 election. First to the FBI in 2016 then to the CIA in 2017. It seems that Joffe was desperate, and his desperation only increased after Trump’s election.
    The source of Joffe’s desperation? It’s speculation at this point, but perhaps it goes to the origins of the purported Russia/DNC hack. To revise a previous question we have asked:  What if Crowdstrike was a patsy, there to unknowingly reach false conclusions of a “Russian hack” based on fraudulent information provided to them by Rodney Joffe and Perkins Coie and the DNC/Hillary Campaign?…
https://technofog.substack.com/p/durham-clinton-allies-spied-on-the

Clinton campaign paid to ‘infiltrate’ Trump Tower, White House servers to link Trump to Russia: Durham (Long, comprehensive summary) ‘Tech Executive-1 and his associates exploited this arrangement by mining the EOP’s DNS traffic and other data for the purpose of gathering derogatory information about Donald Trump.’ Durham’s filing said Sussman’s “billing records reflect” that he “repeatedly billed the Clinton Campaign for his work on the Russian Bank-1 allegations.”
    The filing revealed that Sussman and the Tech Executive had met and communicated with another law partner, who was serving as General Counsel to the Clinton campaign. Sources told Fox News that lawyer is Marc Elias, who worked at the law firm Perkins Coie… “Tech Executive-1 also enlisted the assistance of researchers at a U.S.-based university who were receiving and analyzing large amounts of Internet data in connection with a pending federal government cybersecurity research contract.”
    “Tech Executive-1 tasked these researchers to mine Internet data to establish ‘an inference’ and ‘narrative’ tying then-candidate Trump to Russia,” Durham states. “In doing so, Tech Executive-1 indicated that he was seeking to please certain ‘VIPs,’ referring to individuals at Law Firm-1 and the Clinton campaign.”…  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/clinton-campaign-paid-infiltrate-trump-tower-white-house-servers

Trump demands prosecutions, reparations after explosive revelations in Durham court filing
“This is a scandal far greater in scope and magnitude than Watergate and those who were involved in and knew about this spying operation should be subject to criminal prosecution… In a stronger period of time in our country, this crime would have been punishable by death…”
https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/trump-demands-prosecutions-reparations-after-explosive

@ggreenwald: The NYT/CNN/NBC axis flooded the zone every time Robert Mueller scratched his nose. They spent hours and hours deciphering his every sneeze. Actual criminal indictments from Durham of Hillary’s lawyer or FBI operatives — crimes that created Russiagate — barely merit an article.

@HansMahn>https://t.co/3gTBiPJuXZ

@JackPosobiec: Biden’s National Security Advisor was involved in an illegal spying operation on the previous President. He is now escalating tensions with a nuclear power in Eurasia bc Biden’s poll numbers are down

@ProfMJCleveland: Today provides perfect example of how Twitter banning Trump was necessary for Left Tech and Corrupt Media to control the narrative. If Trump was on Twitter, he’d merely need to tweet. “I told you they were spying on me–bigly!” And media could not ignore

IBM Emails Show Millennial Workers Favored Over ‘Dinobabies’
Lawyer in age bias case calls messages ‘highly incriminating’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-12/ibm-emails-show-millennial-workers-favored-over-dinobabies

@CBSNews: CBS News has learned that the Biden administration is preparing to withdraw all U.S. personnel from Kyiv within the next 24-48 hours.

Today – The technical damage to stocks and bonds on Thursday and Friday was severe. Hopes that the rally from the lows, on determined manipulation, had change the down trend are hanging by a thin thread. The determined quest to push the S&P 500 Index above its 126-day moving average now looks like an abject failure. The one-day jump above its 126-DMA (4553) appears to have been decisively rejected. The S&P 500 Index closed (4418.64) 33.42 points below its 200-day moving average (4452.06).

The game for today will be for bulls and the equity rescue team to close the S&P 500 Index above its 200-DMA. The effort should be aided and abetted by the propensity for stocks to rally on Monday and the upward bias, as well as manipulation, for expiration week.

The S&P 500 Index low on Friday is 4401.41. 4400 is important support.

ESHs are +7.50; gold is +18.00; and WTI oil is +1.69 at 20:30 ET. Expected Economic Data: None

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4609; 100-day MA: 4574; 150-day MA: 4527; 200-day MA: 4452
DJIA 50-day MA: 35,535; 100-day MA: 35,410; 150-day MA: 35,276; 200-day MA 35,040

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4153.02 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4769.17 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4592.15 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4591.37 triggers a buy signal

Senators: CIA has secret program that collects American data
(Dem) Sens. Ron Wyden of Oregon and Martin Heinrich of New Mexico sent a letter to top intelligence officials calling for more details about the program to be declassified…
    In 2013, Wyden asked then-Director of National Intelligence James Clapper if the NSA collected “any type of data at all on millions or hundreds of millions of Americans.” Clapper initially responded, “No.” He later said, “Not wittingly.” Former systems administrator Edward Snowden later that year revealed the NSA’s access to bulk data through U.S. internet companies and hundreds of millions of call records from telecommunications providers. Those revelations sparked worldwide controversy and new legislation in Congress…Clapper would later apologize in a letter to the Senate Intelligence Committee, calling his response to Wyden “clearly erroneous.”…
https://www.theintelligencer.com/news/article/Senators-CIA-has-secret-program-that-collects-16851276.php

When CIA Director Brennan repeatedly lied to Congress that the CIA does not surveil Americans, and proof contradicted him, Brennan was not prosecuted. So why should any CIA employee obey the law?

@emeriticus: One reason intel agencies have gone “woke” is that they can appeal to antiracism or the fake threat of white supremacy and right-wing extremism to attempt to justify illegal surveillance.

Biden Admin Urges Court Not to Allow Release of ‘Secret Report’ on Dominion Voting Machines
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-admin-urges-court-not-allow-release-secret-report-dominion-voting-machines

@realLizUSA14h: Wisconsin has 4 million adults but 7.1 million voter registrations…1.5 million illegal voter registrations; 155,000 suspected fake voters; “Well over — well over — 50,000 illegally cast ballots that we can prove” from Nov. 3, 2020…One apartment complex in Madison that houses less than 700 has 1,631 registered “voters.” The building had a 102% turnout rate on 11/3… (Much more at link)
https://twitter.com/realLizUSA/status/1491952076368273424

ANOTHER J-6 INFILTRATOR? Megan Paradise, the Ray Epps Female Clone, Caught on Megaphone Directing Trump Supporters to US Capitol, Broke into Lawmaker’s Office, Filmed the Room, Has Not Been Arrested  https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/02/another-j-6-infiltrator-megan-paradise-ray-epps-female-clone-caught-megaphone-directing-trump-supporters-us-capitol-broke-lawmakers-office-filmed-room-not-arrested/

Mitch McConnell Shouldn’t Promote Media Lies About RNC Censure of Cheney
Even before her ouster, Cheney — an advocate of unending interventionist wars — had been known for spreading anti-Trump disinformation, such as the false claim that Russians had paid Afghans to kill American soldiers and that Trump knew this and did nothing about it…
    Cheney and her colleagues on the committee have been persecuting people who aren’t in any way accused of having anything whatsoever to do with the riot or any political violence. They’ve seized texts, emails, and other communications from hundreds of people who were simply practicing First Amendment rights. In one case, Cheney went after a person nowhere near the riot who had committed the crime of running a Super PAC to unseat her…
    But what is disappointing is that Senate Republican leader McConnell — after years of such lies from corporate media — did not fight these lies but accepted them and denounced the resolution to censure Cheney. “Mitch McConnell denounced the RNC for calling the Jan. 6 riot ‘legitimate political discourse’,” wrote leftist outlet The New York Times. For crying out loud. The RNC did not call any riot “legitimate political discourse.”… It is no surprise that McConnell is the least popular politician in the country, somehow even less popular than Joe Biden and Kamala Harris…
https://thefederalist.com/2022/02/11/mitch-mcconnell-shouldnt-promote-media-lies-about-rnc-censure-of-cheney/

Time to Cashier McConnell (Was Mitch “in on it”? His hatred for Trump is palpable.)
Indeed, for the second time in less than five years, an 80-something Republican senator has directly attacked his own party’s base, with venal dishonesty, on a matter so fundamental that without it the party might as well not exist…Former Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) (born 1936) narrowly won reelection in 2016. An explicit campaign promise to support the repeal of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act got him over the top. Yet in July 2017, McCain voted “no” on the repeal of ACA, dramatically making the Roman police verso gesture. McCain, who was 80 at the time and had just had brain surgery to treat terminal cancer, betrayed his promise…
    McConnell is endorsing the opposition’s propaganda that the election was not only not problematic but pristine…“Truth is great and will prevail,” Thomas Jefferson observed, “. . . unless by human interposition disarmed of her natural weapons.” This is what the J6 committee is all about: preventing a debate. McConnell’s attack on his own party is procedurally incompetent no less than it is dangerous…
https://amgreatness.com/2022/02/10/time-to-cashier-mcconnell/

@julie_kelly2: The reason why Kamala Harris never disclosed she was at DNC HQ on January 6 is because (1) it undermined one of DOJs animating charges that she was at the Capitol and (2) it would have fueled more questions as to why the “pipe bomber” hasn’t been identified or charged.

@hollandcourtney: Kids at a Las Vegas elementary school burst out into cheers after learning they no longer have to wear a mask to school  https://twitter.com/hollandcourtney/status/1491996868829614081

Teacher’s union head Randi Weingarten is COVID’s most evil official – American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten is responsible for continued masking in schools…
    Demanding that student mask mandates remain in place until their vaccination rates hit 80% raises the question: Who again are we aiming to protect? Every adult has long had access to the vaccine, the kids aren’t getting seriously ill in significant numbers, and any immunocompromised individual can use effective mask protection (unlike kids, who understandably have a hard time keeping even their less-effective masks in place all day)… https://nypost.com/2022/02/09/teachers-union-head-randi-weingarten-is-covids-most-evil-official/

@Paulvallas: Even if Pritzker (IL Gov) lifts state school mask mandate, (Chicago) Mayor & CPS agreed to keep children masked until Aug 1 as condition for CTU to end 5-day strike. Expect another yr of academic decline, increased social-emotional problems & enrollment declines

@Jusrangers: (NY) Governor Hochul is “not ready” for toddlers to unmask for early intervention services. But she was ready to shed her own mask last night to party with Broadway stars. We’re way past indifference. This is downright cruelty.  https://twitter.com/Jusrangers/status/1492220598763896835

@TomFitton: So virtually no one is wearing a mask at the Super Bowl in the same place that abusively mandates them for children

@jason_meister: The only possible conclusion we can come to is that COVID doesn’t spread in luxury NFL boxes. It only spreads in classrooms.

A customer informed us that “Microsoft had preceded their original whitelist that was set up with a new default policy”. The new default policy might embargo our report in coming days.

Let us close out MONDAY with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter INTERVIEWING ROB KIRBY

Harvey Financial Atrocities at Core of all Global Problems – Rob Kirby

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Financial Atrocities at Core of all Global Problems – Rob Kirby | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

Financial Atrocities at Core of all Global Problems – Rob Kirby

By Greg Hunter On February 12, 2022 In Political Analysis54 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Macroeconomic analyst Rob Kirby says all the problems of the world, whether it’s the truckers in Canada or the trouble in Ukraine, can be traced back to “obscene” secret money creation and the lies to cover it all up before it blows up. Kirby, who lives in Toronto, Canada, and has a front row seat to the Canadian Freedom Truckers says, “What’s occurring with the truckers in Canada, what’s occurring in Ukraine, what’s occurring in the South China Sea regarding Taiwan, what’s occurring in the Koreas, all the geopolitical tension everywhere in the world is all traceable back to the money. The amount of money that is being created is stunningly larger than what has been acknowledged and published for consumption.”

As just one example of out-of-control money printing and massive fraud, Kirby uses the recent work of Dr. Mark Skidmore and the $400 billion of investment assets at Social Security being churned more than 100 times the amount. Kirby explains, “Social Security has $400 billion in investable retirement assets. In the 2019 one-year time frame, Dr. Mark Skidmore showed that those $400 billion in investable retirement assets were turned over in excess of $44 TRILLION. That is a neon sign for a colossal fraud any way you look at it.”

Kirby says the Fed’s balance sheet is another huge fraud, and instead of nearly $9 trillion in debt, it’s probably more like “$100 trillion in unacknowledged money.” Kirby says, If you add $100 trillion to the Fed’s $8.8 trillion balance sheet, you have a different picture than what is being presented to humanity. . . . What we have here is bigger than life, and it’s obscene. It’s the kind of material horror movies are made of. . . . The problem is the money is at the core of everything. When you created that much money, you have to lie. If it becomes understood just how much money there really is, the dollar would lose its place as the world’s reserve currency immediately. . . . They are living a lie. The problem with telling lies is you have to tell more lies, and you have compound lies.”

One thing that does not lie is spiking price inflation, which is signaling a dramatically depreciating dollar. Kirby says, “In the last year in America, the price of natural gas is up 81%. The price of crude oil is up 66%. Agricultural commodities are up 24%. Rent is up 13%. Used car prices are up 44%. Gasoline is up 36%. Cattle prices are up 20%. Lumber is up 15%. Coffee is up 92%. Hotel prices are up 37%, and the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is up 7.5%. I have some ocean front property in Arizona. Are you interested in buying some?”

In short, Kirby points out the U.S. government is lying its tail off about the true inflation number. This is why in his last interview Kirby said, “The dollar has stage four cancer.”

In closing, Kirby predicts, “This will end in absolute disaster for humanity. It already has been a disaster for humanity, and it’s going to get worse.”

Kirby predicts the PM of Canada, Justin Trudeau, will call in the UN troops “the Blue Helmets” to quell the protests against the vaccine mandates.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with analyst Rob Kirby, founder of KirbyAnalytics.com 2.12.22. (There is much more in the 36 min. interview.)

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

After the Interview:

There is free information on KirbyAnalytics.com. If you want more cutting edge original macro-economic analysis, you can become a subscriber by clicking here.

To help Kirby continue his work, you can donate via PayPal, and that tab is located on the left-hand side of the home page. It says, “Help Support Indy Media.”

If you are looking to buy physical gold and silver coins, check out our sponsor Discount Gold and Silver Trading. Ask for Melody Cedarstrom, the owner, at 1-800-375-4188.

Financial Atrocities at Core of all Global Problems – Rob Kirby

end

Well that is all for today. I will see you TUESDAY night

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