FEB 16

FEB16

· by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment ·Edit

GOLD; UP $14.60 to $1869.80

SILVER: $23.59 UP 21 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1869.70

SILVER: $23.58

Bitcoin: morning price: $44,005 DOWN 135

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $44,269 UP $129

Platinum price: closing UP $38.90 to $1065.50

Palladium price; closing UP $30.30 at $222.70

END

end

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comex notices//JPMorgan notices filed//comex notices//JPMorgan notices filed 0/0

COMEX//NOTICES:EXCHANGE: COMEX FILED:EXCHANGE: COMEX

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEB. CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ (0.000 TONNES)

total notices so far: 17,478 contracts for 1,747,800 oz (54.363 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 1278 : for 6,390,000 oz

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $14.60

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES AT THE GLD:

CLOSING INVENTORY :1019.44 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 21 CENTS:/:

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY SLV/ TONIGHT: 547.808 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG 2730 CONTRACTS TO 156,968 AND RESTS FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND DESPITE THIS TINY LOSS IN OI, IT WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE $0.46 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.46) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 521 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES .

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 100,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 7.790 MILLION OZ. V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS.

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS -131

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 12 days, total contracts: : 6818 contracts or 34.090 million oz OR 2.840 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (568 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 6818 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 34.090 MILLION OZ

LAST 10 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 34.090 MILLION OZ//

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAR.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2599 ITH OUR CONSIDERABLE $0.49 GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 750 CONTRACTS( 750 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 4.1 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 100,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 7.790, MILLION OZ// .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1849 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 9.245 MILLION OZ//

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1537 TO 558,645 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: —417 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $12.70//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED 2304 CONTRACTS…

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB AT 64.3 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1500 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON //NEW STANDING: 58.373 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $12.70 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 2304 OI CONTRACTS (7.166 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3841 CONTRACTS:

FOR APRIL 3841 ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL:3841

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 558,645.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2304, WITH 1537 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3841 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2304 CONTRACTS OR 7.166TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3841) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1537,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2304 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 64.30 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 1500 OZ//NEW STANDING 58.373 TONNES// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI. LOSS 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :

30,268 CONTRACTS OR 3,026,800 oz OR 94.15 TONNES 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2522 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 94.15 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 94.15/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.64% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 145.12 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 94.15 TONNES//INITIAL

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 2730 CONTRACTS TO 156,968 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 4 1/2 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 750 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 750 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 750 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2599 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 750 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1980 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9.90 MILLION OZ,

OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.46 LOSS IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.74 PTS OR 0.57% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 363.19 PTS OR 1.49% /The Nikkei closed UP 595.21 or 2/22% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.10% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3408 /Oil UP TO 93.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 943.94 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3408. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3394: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER//

A)NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1537 CONTRACTS AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $12.70 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (6903 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3841 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , & FEB. 0 APRIL: 3841 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3841 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED 2304 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 3841 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 1537 CONTRACTS..

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (58.370),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

FEB 2022: 58.370 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $12.70)BUT THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE REGISTERED A GAIN OF 8.463 TONNES OF TOTAL OI, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (58.370 TONNES)…

WE HAD –417 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2304 CONTRACTS OR 230400 OZ OR 7.166 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 123,450 /// POOR

Confirmed volume yesterday: 224,600 contracts fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB ’22 COMEX GOLD //FEB 16

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	NIL oz
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil
No of oz served (contracts) today	0 notice(s)0 OZ 1.660 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	1288 contracts 128,800 oz 4.000 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	17,478 notices1,747,800 OZ 103.25 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

For today:

No dealer deposit 0

No dealer withdrawal 0

0 customer deposit

total deposit: nil oz

0 customer withdrawal

total withdrawals: nil oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 1288 stand for LOSING 16 contracts.

We had 0 contracts served upon yesterday, so we LOST 16 contracts or an additional 1600 oz will NOT stand on this side of the pond looking for gold metal.

The month of March saw a GAIN of 71 contracts and thus the OI standing is 4263.

April saw a LOSS of 3127 contracts down to 433,624.

June saw a gain of 806 contracts up to 70,397 contracts

We had 0 notice(s) filed today for 1000 oz FOR THE FEB 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2021. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (17,478) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEB: 1288 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 0 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,876,600 OZ OR 58.370 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of FEB.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:

No of notices filed so far (17,478) x 100 oz+ (1288) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0} x 100 oz} which equals 1,876,700 oz standing OR 58.370 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEB.

We LOST 16 contracts or an additional 100 oz will NOT stand for gold over here

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 58.370 TONNES (HUGE FOR A FEBRUARY DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

157,392.690, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 4.89 TONNES

125,410.592 PLEDGED MANFRA 2.90 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690

288,481,604, oz JPM No 2 8.97 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware: 0..3810 tonne

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold: 1,553,863.297 oz 48.331 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 32,665,081 OZ (1016.02 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,428,326.030 OZ (479.89 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,236,735.572 OZ (536.13 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,682,872.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 487.95 tonnes

END

FEBRUARY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//FEB 16

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	993,579.860 oz Brinks CNT Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	31,167.150 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)	0CONTRACT(S) (NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	280 contracts (1,400,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1278 contracts 6,390,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware: 31,167.150 oz

total deposit: 31,167.150 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 184.161 million oz/350.537 million =52.49% of comex

ii) Comex withdrawals: 3

a)Out of CNT 373,402.310 oz

b) Our of Brinks: 27,221.710 oz

c) out of Manfra: 592,954.990 oz

total withdrawal 993,579.860 oz

we had 0 adjustments

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 83.896 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 350.537 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF FEB//2022 OI: 280 CONTRACTS GAINING 20 contracts on the day. We had 0 contracts served upon yesterday.

So we gained 20 contracts or an additional 100,000 oz will stand for silver on this side of the pond.

FOR MARCH WE HAD A LOSS OF 57876 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 59,119 CONTRACTS.

APRIL HAD A 10 GAIN// CONTRACTS RISING TO 240

MAY HAD A GAIN OF 2497 CONTRACTS UP TO 77,449 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz

Comex volumes: 58,028// est. volume today//poor

Comex volume: confirmed YESTERDAY: 78,274 contracts (FAIR- to GOOD)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1278 x 5,000 oz =. 6,390,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB (280) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2021 contract month: 1278 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB (280) – number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates 7,790,000 oz. .

We gained 20 CONTRACTS OR 105,000 ADDITIONAL oz of silver will stand at the comex.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

GLD

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP 414.60 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.70 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $27.20 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.60 TONNES//

FEB 4/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.59 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.95//A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.78 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.04 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $10.10//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.15//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.10 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $10.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $10.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN UNBELIEVABLE DEPOSIT OF 27.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.86 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.86 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $29.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.44 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.65//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $19.25/A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.08 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1019.44 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLIONOZ

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THES LV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV/FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.143 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.218 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.430 MILLION OZ/

FEB 4/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILION OZ

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT539.212 MILLION OZ//

FEB 2/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.411 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS : NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 27/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.311 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ/

.JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.8 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 532.692 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.792 MILLION OZ

JAN 20/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.998 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.792 MILLION OZ

JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 71 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.942 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 525.804 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF 1.11 MILLION OZ AND 1.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.246 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ/.

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY

RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 547.808 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Bullard Lets The Cat Out Of The Bag: The Fed Doesn’t Have The Stomach For An Inflation Fight

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 01:20 PM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard unwittingly let the cat out of the bag and revealed the central bank doesn’t have the stomach to do what’s necessary to take on surging, persistent inflation.

After January’s CPI data came in even hotter than expected, Bullard shocked markets by calling for a full 1% rate hike by July. As CNBC reported, his comments sent stocks “on a wild ride” as futures markets began to price in as many as seven quarter-point rate hikes in 2022. That would push interest rates to 1.75% by the end of the year.

But just a day later, Bullard appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box and did damage control. He didn’t back off his call for a 1% hike by this summer, but he did walk back his hawkishness, describing it as “front-loading” the Fed’s planned tightening.

I do think we need to front-load more of our planned removal of accommodation than we would have previously. We’ve been surprised to the upside on inflation. This is a lot of inflation.”

Bullard described his comments as “shading up” his position, and he emphasized he’s just one person on the committee.

Most significantly, Bullard insisted the Fed will continue to provide “accommodative” monetary policy.

We’re only removing accommodation, so it’s still an accommodative policy as we go through these initial rate hikes. They’re rather cheap actually.”

In other words, despite “a lot of inflation,” the Fed’s plan is to continue creating inflation with an accommodative monetary policy. Or to put it another way, the central bank will continue to pour gas on the inflationary fire.

Bullard’s damage control underscores the painful reality the Fed finds itself in. As economist André Marques put it, the Fed is trapped. It doesn’t really have room to raise rates or taper.

The Fed is trapped in its own web. It does not have much room to raise rates without major complications in the financial market and in the economy. Even if it finally delivers on tapering and starts raising rates, it won’t get any further than it did back in the last rate hike (2015–18) and balance sheet shrinking (2017–19) cycles.”

This is why Bullard emphasized the central bank can raise rates to address inflation, but “we can do it in a way that’s organized and not disruptive to markets.”

The freakout in the markets after Bullard’s initial statement on rate hikes is exactly why the St. Louis Fed president went on CNBC to do damage control and walk back his comments. Because deep down everybody knows any significant rate hikes will pop this bubble economy built on artificially low interest rates and monetary stimulus.

The reality is hiking interest rates 1 or 2 percent over the next year or two is not a tight monetary policy and it will do little nothing to get ahead of the inflation curve. Peter Schiff made this point in a recent interview on Fox Business. Keep in mind, Paul Volker had to raise rates to 20% in the early 1980s to tame the inflation of the 1970s. Inflation is every bit as high today if measured honestly.

If we still measured inflation the way we did 40 years ago, it would be 15%, not 7.5%. And the rate hikes they’ve proposed are completely inadequate. In fact, the Fed is intending to pursue an accommodative monetary policy. Even if they raise interest rates to 1 or 2%, that is highly accommodative. That’s the same type of interest rates they had when inflation was below 2%. You’ve got inflation at 7.5%, even the way they measure it – and rising. The only way to put out this fire is to have positive real interest rates. The Fed needs to get above the inflation rate. We’re not even going to get close. So, they’re going to continue to pour gasoline on the fire. And so, the entire time the Fed is inching up rates, inflation is actually going to be moving higher. Inflation is going to be worse in 2022 than it was in 2021, and real interest rates are going to continue to fall even as the Fed raises nominal rates.”

Bullard unwittingly let the cat out of the bag. To the extent that it enters the ring to fight, it’s going to lose because it doesn’t have the will to really fight. Peter made this point in a recent podcast.

It doesn’t matter if the Fed raises rates. Because it’s not going to raise them enough. Inflation is going to get worse no matter what the Fed does because the Fed doesn’t have the political will to actually raise rates high enough to fight inflation.”

The Fed will raise rates a little. As Peter put it, the central bank has to pretend it’s going to fight inflation, especially with inflation now widely considered a problem.

So, the markets are bracing for the fight. What they’re not bracing for is that the Fed is going to lose the fight — that inflation is going to win.”

end

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James RICKARD

-END-

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

This is your spreader operation@!! but a little more refined.

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: ‘Trade at settlement’ rigging mechanism is at work in silver futures market

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-02-15 22:49Section: Daily Dispatches

10:42p ET Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, writing at Sprott Money, reports tonight that the “trade at settlement” mechanism, seemingly used recently to knock the gold futures price down, is starting to be used in the silver futures market.

Hemke writes: “If the price of Comex silver pulls a full round trip next week, we may be able to say with confidence that we have uncovered the latest bank price manipulation technique.”

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Comex Silver Trade at Settlement” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/COMEX-Silver-Trade-at-Settlement-Craig-Hemke-February-15-2022

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

$10,000 Silver: The Market Rigging Game Of The Last 170 Years Is About To End – Silver Doctors

Inbox

i believe this not the crypto part

https://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/10000-silver-the-market-rigging-game-of-the-last-170-years-is-about-to-end/

$10,000 Silver: The Market Rigging Game Of The Last 170 Years Is About To End

Chipotle On Brink Of Guacamole Shortage After US Bans Mexican Avocados

TUESDAY, FEB 15, 2022 – 09:45 PM

Four days have passed since the United States suspended all imports of Mexican avocados following a federal inspector threatened at an avocado farm in the state of Michoacan, Mexico (the central hub of Mexican avocado production). Now one of the largest US Mexican fast-food chains could be on the brink of a guacamole shortage.

NYPost reports Chipotle Mexican Grill sounded the alarm on possible future supply disruptions of avocados in the coming weeks.

“Our sourcing partners currently have several weeks of inventory available, so we’ll continue to closely monitor the situation and adjust our plans accordingly,” Chipotle’s CFO Jack Hartung said in a statement. He said the company is “working closely with our suppliers to navigate through this challenge.”

Hartung didn’t explain what supply distributions of avocados would mean for the company with nearly 3,000 US locations. The fast-food retailer was already dealing with some of the highest avocados prices, up 31% this year alone.

The price for a 20-pound box of avocados from the state of Michoacan was around $27.

Two decades of avocado prices show current prices are some of the highest ever for this time of year. And could be set to move higher, between the $30-$35 range if the import ban isn’t immediately lifted.

Chipotle has already raised prices to combat soaring food inflation. However, if the import ban remains in place, a shortage of guacamole could be seen as early March. There was no word if other fast food Mexican retailers such as Taco Bell, Qdoba Mexican Eats, Moe’s Southwest Grill, and Baja Fresh would experience similar issues.

end

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.3408

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3394

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 363.19 PTS OR 1.49%

2. Nikkei closed UP 595.21 PTS OR 2.22%

3. Europe stocks ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 95.89/Euro RISES TO 1.1366-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.221/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 115.68/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 93.47 and Brent: 94.67–

3f Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE CLOSED UP// OFF- SHORE UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.0.301%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 1.95% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.22%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.68: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.68

3k Gold at $1853.00 silver at: 23.40 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 10/100 in roubles/dollar AT 75.03

3m oil into the 93 dollar handle for WTI and 94 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 115.68 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9255– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0520 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.042 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.348 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.60

Futures Tread Water Ahead Of FOMC Mintues As Russia Forgets To Invade Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 07:50 AM

The global rally stalled on Wednesday, and U.S. index futures were flat, treading water after a quiet overnight session, ahead of today’s FOMC minutes which some hope will unveil more detail on the Fed’s upcoming rate hike and QT, while also weighing the risks from the Ukraine tensions against inflation and tighter monetary policy. S&P 500 futures were flat and Nasdaq futures were little changed by 7:15 a.m. in New York, trimming earlier gains after NATO Sec. Stoltenberg pushed back on claims of Russian troop withdrawals, adding he is yet to see signs of a de-escalation. Treasury yields, bitcoin, gold and the dollar were also all flat. Oil recovered after the biggest one-day loss this year as worries about potential disruptions to commodity supplies eased.

Making a mockery of the Deep State/CIA/CNN which predicted that a Russian invasion would take place today, the Russian defense ministry announced more troops were returning to their bases after maneuvers ended in Crimea, while western officials remained cautious. Fed tightening bets were trimmed as traders speculated the size of the Fed’s interest-rate hike in March and tightening plans. And while the world is mocking US intelligence agencies, traders are awaiting the latest Federal Reserve minutes later Wednesday that may shape views on how fast the Fed will raise interest rates and shrink its bond holdings in coming months.

Airbnb advanced in premarket trading as analysts hiked price targets after its revenue for the fourth quarter beat estimates, while Roblox sumpled 16% after reporting bookings for the fourth quarter that missed estimates. Daily active users came in slightly below expectations too, and analysts were disappointed by the video game maker’s monetization metrics. Here are some other notable movers:

Upstart (UPST US) shares are up 26% in U.S. premarket, after the cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform reported “impressive” 4Q results and FY22 outlook, according to analysts.
Toast (TOST US) shares slump 16% in premarket trading after the restaurant software company’s projection for 2022 adjusted Ebitda loss was wider than the average analyst estimate.
Pinduoduo (PDD US) shares are attractively valued following decline since 3Q21 results and on global tech selloff, Citi writes in note upgrading to buy from neutral. Stock up 2.4% in premarket trading.
Old National Bancorp shares dropped 1.7% postmarket despite an announcement from S&P Dow Jones Indices it will move to replace Urban Edge Properties in the S&P MidCap 400.
Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS US) shares fall 6.1% in extended trading after the company gave a full-year revenue forecast that trailed analysts’ projections.
Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX US) slipped 8.7% in postmarket trading after its application for approval of its lung cancer drug targeting a mutation known as KRAS was assigned a Dec. 14 date by U.S. regulators.
Pacific Biosciences of California (PACB US) shares slumped 12% in postmarket trading after the company reported a net loss that was more than analysts estimated.
Akamai Technologies (AKAM US) shares dropped 5% postmarket after the tech company reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

The standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine is continuing to vex markets as investors struggle to assess Moscow’s claim that some forces are being withdrawn. They’re also considering escalating costs and the likelihood of tightening monetary policy in places like the U.S. and the U.K., where inflation posted a surprise jump. While Russian stocks rose to the highest level in a week, volatility gauges for the S&P 500 and the Treasury market are sitting significantly above 12-month averages, a sign that traders remain on edge.

“Geopolitical tensions should not mask the fact that rates are in an uptrend,” ING Bank NV analysts led by Padhraic Garvey wrote in a note to investors. “This is a global trend if there ever was one.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index fluctuated after earlier extending Tuesday’s gains. The Euro Stoxx 600 was fractionally higher with the FTSE 100 lags dropping 0.2%. Sectors in Europe are a mixed bag with Basic Resources and Energy top of the leaderboard amid strength in underlying commodity prices, while personal care, telecoms and banks are the worst performing sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

Air Liquide gains as much as 4% in Paris trading, the most intraday since Dec. 7, after the French company reported what Morgan Stanley describes as a strong set of results, with pricing and underlying margins both ahead of expectations.
La Francaise des Jeux rises as much as 7.7%, the biggest one-day gain in a year, after the French lottery firm reported FY21 results that beat expectations and FY22 guidance that was also ahead of expectations, according to Citi (neutral).
Umicore climbs as much as 8.6%, the most intraday since April, after net debt fell by more than analysts estimated.
Swedish Match rises as much as 7%, the stock’s best day since December, after results. Handelsbanken notes strong volume for co.’s Zyn brand in the U.S. driving Ebit in the Smokefree product segment.
Ericsson falls as much as 12% after the company’s CEO told Dagens Industri that the firm may have made payments to the ISIS terror organization in order to gain access to certain transport routes in Iraq.
Vitrolife falls as much as 14% after the Swedish fertility company’s 4Q Ebitda missed estimates. ABG Sundal Collier notes organic growth also came in below expectations, but says acquisitions lessened the impact.
Delivery Hero slides as much as 8.5% after Deutsche Bank analyst Silvia Cuneo downgraded the stock to hold from buy.

U.K. inflation unexpectedly accelerated for a fourth straight month in January, a surprise that highlights a brutal cost-of-living crisis that’s only set to worsen this year. Separately, the European Union won the right to use tough new powers to deny Poland and Hungary billions of euros of EU funding for allegedly failing to abide by the bloc’s democratic standards.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rallied, set to snap a three-day decline, as investors bet that geopolitical tensions over Ukraine may be easing. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 1.6%, after falling more than 2% over the past three sessions. Information-technology firms provided the most support after Russia announced a partial pullback of some troops near Ukraine, easing concerns over the supply of key chip materials such as palladium. Chip supply chain companies outperformed after the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index surged 5.5%, the most since March 2021. Benchmark gauges in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan were among the region’s best performers, with the latter two benefiting from tech gains. “The market is going up one day and falling the next depending on how things are unfolding with regards to Ukraine,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management in Tokyo. “The overall trend is for stocks to recover, but market anxiety will continue to linger.” Biden Says Threat to Ukraine Remains, Awaits Russia Pullback Worries over potential U.S. rate hikes and the situation in Ukraine have kept Asian stocks from achieving a sustainable rally. The regional benchmark is down by about 1.5% so far this year after dropping 3.4% in 2021.

Japanese equities rose for the first time in three sessions, joining a global rally amid speculation over easing Russia-Ukraine tensions. Electronics and chemical makers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which rose 1.7%. Tokyo Electron and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 2.2% rise in the Nikkei 225, its biggest gain since Nov. 1. Travel-related stocks rose after reports that Japan will waive quarantine for some travellers.

“The Nikkei 225 is basically in a recovery trend,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. The easing of border controls “is a plus for reopening plays. But the local market now is dominated by overseas factors than domestic ones, like the Ukraine situation, the pace of U.S. rate hikes and their monetary-policy direction.”

Australian stocks also advanced, with the S&P/ASX 200 index rising 1.1% to close at 7,284.90 as most sectors gained. CSL contributed the most to the gauge’s climb after the biotechnology company effectively raised its guidance and posted first-half results that beat expectations. Liontown was the top performer after entering a lithium supply pact with Tesla. Netwealth was the biggest laggard after its 1H profit fell. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 1.5% to 12,121.89.

India’s benchmark equities index fell, after swinging between gains and losses several times through the day, as traders took a pause to evaluate the prospect of diminishing tension over Ukraine and easing crude oil prices. The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 0.3% to 57,996.68 in Mumbai, after moving between gains of as much as 0.7% and a loses of 0.6% in the session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index fell 0.2%. ICICI Bank Ltd. contributed the most to the Sensex decline, falling 1.6%. Out of the 30 shares in the Sensex index, 20 fell. The key indexes had climbed the most in over an year on Tuesday, erasing a similar magnitude of loss a day before. Prices of Brent crude, a major import for India, rose 0.9%, after plunging 3.3% in the previous session. Western officials remained cautious saying they have yet to verify Moscow’s claims that it started to pull back tens of thousands of soldiers massed along Ukraine’s borders. “Markets are currently dancing to the global tunes and we don’t see this changing anytime soon,” said Ajit Mishra, vice president research at Religare Broking Ltd. “The US Fed meeting minutes and lingering tension over the Russia-Ukraine crisis will remain on the radar.”

In rates, Treasuries were slightly richer across the curve into early U.S. session, with futures having erased declines. Short-dated gilts outperformed following the latest red-hot U.K. January CPI data. Yields richer by 1bp-2bp in parallel shift across the curve, 10- year 2.03%; U.K. 2- and 5-year yields are richer by 6.5bp and 5bp on the day, outperforming core euro-zone. Focal points of U.S. session include 20-year new-issue bond auction and release of minutes of FOMC’s Jan. 26 meeting, which conveyed the potential for a faster pace of rate hikes if needed to curb inflation. Gilts curve bull steepen with 2s10s widening 4.5bps. Bunds little changed. Peripheral spreads are mixed to Germany; Italy widens, Spain tightens and Portugal tightens.

In Fx,the dollar traded below 96 low as markets continue to weigh up conciliation from Russia against caution from the West and scepticism from NATO. Loonie bounces pre-Canadian CPI and Sterling bid post-firmer than forecast UK inflation data with Cable hovering above the 50% Fib of its 2022 range so far at 1.3554, while EUR/GBP respects resistance circa 0.8400. Aussie and Euro inch closer to round numbers at 0.7200 and 1.1400 respective after breaching upside chart levels, but Eur/Usd faces decent 1.5 bn or so option expiry interest between 1.1395-1.1405. Safe haven Yen and Franc lag, but latter yet to close below a key technical pivot at 115.67.

In commodities, oil recovered after the biggest one-day loss this year as worries about potential disruptions to commodity supplies eased. WTI trades within Tuesday’s range, adding 1% to trade near $93. Most base metals trade in the green; LME zinc rises 1%, outperforming peers. Spot gold is little changed at $1,855/oz. Bitcoin is modestly softer on the session and continues to consolidate around Tuesday’s parameters.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the UK and Canada’s CPI for January, whilst from the US there’s January’s retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilisation, and February’s NAHB housing market index. From central banks, we’ll get the minutes of the FOMC’s January meeting, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari is speaking. Finally, earnings releases include Nvidia, Cisco Systems, Applied Materials and AIG.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures dropped to 4,452.00
MXAP up 1.5% to 190.11
MXAPJ up 1.3% to 625.51
Nikkei up 2.2% to 27,460.40
Topix up 1.7% to 1,946.63
Hang Seng Index up 1.5% to 24,718.90
Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,465.83
Sensex little changed at 58,094.82
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.1% to 7,284.93
Kospi up 2.0% to 2,729.68
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 469.11
German 10Y yield little changed at 0.32%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.1384
Brent Futures up 1.0% to $94.17/bbl
Brent Futures up 1.0% to $94.17/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,856.88
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.20% to 95.80

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Stocks climbed, while bonds fell with the dollar as speculation that geopolitical tensions could be easing overshadowed data showing inflation is still running hot.
U.K. inflation unexpectedly accelerated for a fourth straight month in January, a surprise that highlights a cost-of-living crisis that’s only set to worsen this year.
The Russian defense ministry on Wednesday announced more troops were returning to their bases after maneuvers ended in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. But western officials said they remain cautious.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher following the optimism seen in European and US peers yesterday. ASX 200 was kept afloat by its Healthcare sector, although gains were capped by losses in Energy and Metal names. Nikkei 225 and KOSPI both benefitted from a strong tech sector, whilst the former also benefits from favourable Yen dynamics. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the regional gains, although the latter lacks momentum after a daily PBoC drain and following yesterday’s maintained MLF rate – which likely means the February LPRs will also be held.

Top Asian News

Kuroda: BOJ Will Use Fixed-Rate Bond Operation Again If Needed
China’s Xi Orders Hong Kong to Tackle Covid Surge by All Means
PBOC Governor Vows More Support for ‘Weak Links’ in Economy
Shimao Seeks Repayment Extension on $947 Million Trust Products

European bourses (Eurostoxx 50 unch.) trimmed early gains as NATO Sec. Gen. Stoltenberg pushed back on claims of Russian troop withdrawals, adding he is yet to see signs of a de-escalation. US futures (ES -0.1%) sit in minor negative territory amid the pullback in risk sentiment; traders await US retail sales and FOMC minutes. Sectors in Europe are a mixed bag with Basic Resources and Energy top of the leaderboard amid strength in underlying commodity prices

Top European News

Europe Pushes Easing; Xi’s Order for Hong Kong: Virus Update
U.K. Inflation Overshoot Adds to Brutal Cost of Living Squeeze
Europe Heads Back to Normal as Germany Joins End of Covid Curbs
Deutsche Bahn Said to Prepare $23 Billion Schenker Sale

In FX, DXY down to new sub-96.00 WTD low as markets continue to weigh up conciliation from Russia against caution from the West and scepticism from NATO. Loonie bounces pre-Canadian CPI and Sterling bid post-firmer than forecast UK inflation data with Cable hovering above the 50% Fib of its 2022 range so far at 1.3554, while EUR/GBP respects resistance circa 0.8400. Aussie and Euro inch closer to round numbers at 0.7200 and 1.1400 respective after breaching upside chart levels, but Eur/Usd faces decent 1.5 bn or so option expiry interest between 1.1395-1.1405. Safe haven Yen and Franc lag, but latter yet to close below a key technical pivot at 115.67

In commodities, WTI and Brent remain firmer on the session but reside within overnight ranges, in European hours the benchmarks have been moving on geopolitical updates from Russia & NATO. Currently, Brent is holding above the USD 94.00/bbl mark but remains shy of the USD 94.60/bbl session high. US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -1.1mln (exp. -1.6mln), Cushing -2.4mln, Gasoline -0.9mln (exp. +0. 6mln), Distillates -0.5mln (exp. -1.5mln). Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government PM says it has discussed possible gas and renewable energy investment with the Qatar Energy Minister, via Reuters. Spot gold/silver are little changed overall as the yellow metal holds onto the USD 1850/oz mark, awaiting fresh drivers and looking to US data/Fed speak & minutes.

In fixed income, solid demand for 10 year German issuance helps Bunds consolidate recovery gains off new cycle low. Gilts also off worst levels as NATO raises more doubt about Russia recalling troops from the border with Ukraine. US Treasuries lag ahead of busy agenda including primary data, 20 year note supply and January’s FOMC minutes

Central banks:

PBOC Governor Yi Gang expects China’s economic growth to return to potential this year; China will keep accommodative monetary policy flexible, according to Reuters.
Chinese press suggests the PBoC LPR will be maintained in February.
BoJ Governor Kuroda says fixed-rate bond purchase offer was made amid the “unusual” market situation, via Reuters; if situation become unusual again could use such tools.

In geopolitics:

Russia is preparing to withdraw additional military columns from Crimea following military drills, via Reuters citing Ifx
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg says they are yet to see any Russian de-escalation, Russia is continuing with its military buildup. Continue to convey message that we are prepared to talk. Messages on diplomacy from Moscow, Russia are proving some grounds for cautious optimism. Russia has always moved forces back and forth, movement is not confirmation of a withdrawal.
Russia does not plan to move its embassy in Ukraine from Kiev, a source told Sputnik.
Russia’s EU representative says he can confirm that there will be no invasion today, no escalation, neither next week nor next month.
Russia will not partake in the special-OSCE meeting regarding Belarus military exercises, via Reuters citing Tass.
NATO frigates tried to conduct electronic reconnaissance of Russian ships in the Mediterranean, according to Sputnik
Ukraine Defence Ministry says the unprecedented DDoS attack is still ongoing, attackers succeeded in locating code vulnerabilities

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Geopolitics remained the dominant theme in markets yesterday, with risk assets recovering thanks to signs of easing tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine. In fact the first market reaction of the day came not long after we went to press, when the news came through that Russia would be returning thousands of troops to bases following drills, raising hopes that a diplomatic solution could be found and boosting investor sentiment relative to the more downbeat tone on Monday.

The more positive newsflow helped numerous assets, and the decline in energy prices demonstrated how markets were taking the news positively. Brent crude oil prices (-3.32%) had their biggest daily decline of 2022 so far, whilst European natural gas futures were down -12.20% to €70.92/MWh, marking their lowest closing level since New Year’s Eve. Gold (-0.94%) also took a sharp turn lower as the news dampened demand for safer haven assets, and equities got the day off to a strong start from the get-go.

Even with that partial bounceback however, the situation remains volatile. In response to the news of a Russian withdrawal, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg commented that this was “reason for cautious optimism”, but said “So far, we haven’t seen any sign of de-escalation on the ground”. President Biden struck a similar tone in public comments just before the US close yesterday, where he noted an attack was very much still a possibility and urged US citizens to leave the country, and also said that the US had not verified Russia’s claims about troop withdrawals. He reaffirmed sanctions would be severe in response to any invasion. Furthermore, Russian President Putin is calling for security guarantees that are still being rejected, including a commitment that Ukraine will not join NATO, which has been a non-starter for NATO, so many of the causes behind recent tensions are still in place. Nevertheless, sentiment incrementally improved, and the caveats from western leaders to the earlier news of Russian withdrawals weren’t enough to dampen risk appetite.

The relief in risk assets was evident across the board, with the S&P 500 (+1.58%) bouncing back alongside Europe’s STOXX 600 (+1.43%). Both saw a broad-based advance, with energy stocks one of the few underperformers in both jurisdictions due to the sharp decline in energy prices as mentioned at the top. Otherwise there was a very strong performance, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+2.76%) posted even larger gains, as did the FANG+ index (+3.23%) of megacap tech stocks.

For those after further detail on what recent tensions mean for different economies, the European economics team published a note last night (link here) assessing the risks to the European economy from an escalation. They look at two shock scenarios: one that sees a 50% increase in gas prices and a 20% increase in oil prices, and a more severe one that has a 100% increase in gas prices and a 50% increase in oil prices. Both would see a notable rise in inflation relative to the non-conflict baseline, alongside a reduction in growth. In turn, this could see the ECB put its step-by-step exit on hold initially and maintain APP net asset purchases at €40bn per month, as well as a rise in deficits as the economy deteriorates and governments seek to shield their economies from the growing cost-of living crisis. There’s plenty of detail on those, as well as the ways in which a conflict would affect the European economy through numerous channels.

Whilst geopolitical events were the main driver in markets yesterday, there was another familiar theme too as we got a further upside surprise from US inflation, this time with the PPI reading for January. The monthly reading came in at +1.0% (vs. +0.5% expected), which was above every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg and the fastest monthly pace in 8 months. In turn that left the year-on-year figure at +9.7% (vs. +9.1% expected), only seeing a slight decline from the +9.8% figure in December. Elsewhere, the Empire State manufacturing survey’s prices received index reached a record high of 54.1 in February, and prices paid also held roughly steady at 76.6 (vs. 76.7 in January).

Yields on US Treasuries moved higher against that backdrop, with the 10yr yield up +5.6bps to 2.04%, which is their highest closing level since July 2019. That move was entirely driven by higher real yields, with the 10yr real yield up +8.2bps to -0.44%, and on top of that the 2s10s curve actually steepened yesterday after a run of 5 consecutive moves flatter, shifting up +5.5bps to 46.2bps. Continental Europe saw a similar move higher in yields, with those on 10yr bunds up +2.5bps to 0.30%, which is their own highest level since November 2018.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets across the region are witnessing a broad rally in line with that seen in the US and Europe. The Nikkei (+2.25%) is one of the strongest performers this morning, with the Kospi (+1.94%) and the Hang Seng (+1.18%) also moving higher, whilst the Shanghai Composite (+0.53%) and the CSI (+0.50%) have posted somewhat weaker gains. Overnight we’ve also had the latest inflation data from China which came in beneath expectations. That saw CPI fall to +0.9% in January on a year-on-year basis (vs. +1.0% expected), whilst PPI fell to +9.1% (vs. +9.5% expected). In turn, with the below-expected inflation numbers giving the PBOC more room to ease, Iron ore futures in Singapore rose +1.1% to $137.35/ton, reversing its earlier losses after declining around -11.0% in last three trading sessions. Outside of Asia, 10yr USTs are down -1.4bps to 2.029%, and equity futures are pointing to a slightly negative start in the US, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.17%.

Looking forward, we’ve a couple of adverts for you now. The first is Deutsche Banks’ annual Global ESG Conference on Feb 28th to March 2nd. The virtual event features presentations from 60+ companies and focused panels on a range of topics, and Michael Bloomberg, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for Climate Ambition and Solutions will be delivering the keynote address. The link for clients to register is here. Second, DB’s Maximilian Uleer will be hosting an expert call on power prices with Dr. John Feddersen, the CEO of Aurora Energy Research. Topics will include Europe’s dependence on Russian gas imports, and the call is taking place later today. For more details and the registration link click here.

In other news yesterday, President Biden’s nominees for various Federal Reserve positions will have to wait to have their candidacies put to the full Senate for a confirmation vote. It came as some Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee disapproved of certain nominees. Committee Chair Senator Brown, a Democrat, said he would reschedule the votes, which also include those on Fed Chair Powell’s nomination for a second term, Governor Brainard’s nomination as vice chair, and three additional nominees for Governor.

On the data front, the latest numbers continued to point to very tight labour markets in the UK, with vacancies hitting a record high of 1.298m in the 3 months ending January. The number of payrolled employees in January was also up by +108k, and unemployment came in at 4.1% in the three months ending December, in line with expectations. That’ll be followed by the CPI release this morning as well. Over in Germany, the ZEW survey for February came in a bit below expectations, but saw an improvement on January’s numbers. The expectations component rose to a 7-month high of 54.3 (vs. 55.0 expected), and the current situation ended a run of 4 consecutive declines to rise to -8.1 (vs. -6.5 expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK and Canada’s CPI for January, whilst from the US there’s January’s retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilisation, and February’s NAHB housing market index. From central banks, we’ll get the minutes of the FOMC’s January meeting, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari is speaking. Finally, earnings releases include Nvidia, Cisco Systems, Applied Materials and AIG.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

Ridiculous!! North Korean authorities arrest a dance tutor and her students for practicing capitalist dance moves

(Fredly/EpochTimes)

North Korean Authorities Arrest Dance Tutor, Students For Practicing “Capitalist” Dance Moves: Report

TUESDAY, FEB 15, 2022 – 10:45 PM

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

North Korean authorities have reportedly arrested a dance tutor and several of her students for using foreign media to practice a “capitalist” dance routine, news outlet Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported on Friday, citing sources in the teacher’s neighborhood.

A resident of the northwestern city of Pyongsong said on Jan. 31 that a dance instructor, who appears to be in her 30s, was caught teaching “foreign-style disco dances” to teenage students in Yangji-dong of Pyongsong City.

In North Korea, anyone caught with large amounts of media from South Korea or the United States could face a life sentence or even a death penalty under the Elimination of Reactionary Thought and Culture Act enacted in December 2020.

While enforcement of the law is often lenient around Seollal, which refers to the Korean Lunar New Year, the Anti-Socialism Inspection Group has been particularly active in operating clampdowns this year, according to a source.

“The Anti-Socialism Inspection Group, a joint operation of the State Security Department and the police, has been intensively cracking down on people for watching South Korean movies and distributing foreign media,” the resident told RFA.

The source, who was speaking on the condition of anonymity, claimed that officers from the Anti-Socialism Inspection Group monitored the dance tutor’s residence in plain clothes for two days before conducting a raid.

“At the scene of the crackdown on the dance instructor that day, a USB flash drive containing foreign songs and dance videos had been plugged in, next to the flatscreen TV,” the source said, adding that the flash drive was also seized during the raid.

In this May 11, 2016, file photo, members of the Moranbong Band, North Korea’s most popular all-female pop group formed by leader Kim Jong Un, perform during a concert where high level officials, diplomats and foreign journalists were invited to watch, as part of celebrations on the conclusion of the ruling party congress in Pyongyang, North Korea.

The dance instructor is believed to have been working at Okchon high school in Pyongsong with a monthly salary of 3,000 won ($2.50), before deciding to open a private dance academy in her house for middle and high school students.

According to another source, the dance tutor charges around $10 per hour for a twice-weekly dance class. Most of her students come from wealthy families, which are often spared harsh punishment for minor transgressions.

“However, since the Central Committee has ordered that those who violate the Elimination of Reactionary Thought and Culture Act be severely punished regardless of their rank or class, the foreign dance instructor and students caught this time will not be spared from hard labor,” the source said.
“Their parents are also likely to be punished by being forced to leave the party.”

Meanwhile, a South Korean-based human rights group reported last year that at least seven people had been put to death for watching or distributing K-pop videos, or Korean popular music, since leader Kim Jong-un took power in 2011.

end

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EUROPE vs UK SPLIT

A very important read from Tom Luongo…

(Tom Luongo)

Will Lagarde & The ECB Survive This Inflection Point In Geopolitics?

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

Recently, ECB President Christine Lagarde shocked markets with surprisingly hawkish talk at her monetary policy press conference.

Lagarde didn’t make any sudden moves in policy or anything. The ECB has yet to end any of its bond-buying and internal debt-transfer alphabet soup projects, and won’t until Q3 at the earliest.

Markets were not prepared by her previously that she would set such a hawkish tone. Say what you want about FOMC communications policy, at least under Jerome Powell, they tell you what they are going to do and then do it.

But Lagarde needed to do something dramatic because capital markets were moving quickly against her.

Traders stopped trying to disbelieve the illusion of Fed hawkishness and finally accepted what Powell was saying. For better or worse (and that debate was lively in this podcast I did with Peter Boockvar last week) the Fed will raise rates in March.

This isn’t an article about whether the Fed is making a policy error or not. This article isn’t even really about Christine Lagarde and the ECB. The actions of these two figures are downstream of the rapid changes occurring in the geopolitical landscape.

Those changes forced Lagarde to jawbone the euro higher and stave off a collapse in credit spreads.

So bear with me as I link the new gas deal between Russia and China to the the splits within the Anglo/Euro political hierarchy. Because once I’m done I hope you’ll see the inflection point we now find ourselves in the geopolitical Great Powers game.

So, back to Lagarde.

Central to Eurasia

I’ve talked in recent weeks about what I think the real story is behind the US/UK push for war over the breakaway Ukrainian republics known as the Donbass.

In short, it is a manufactured crisis to engineer the independence of the European Union from the US/UK traditional forces which have pushed the world to its current state. Biden will get to look tough staring down the Russians with sanctions threats and the Germans will finally get their shiny, new natural gas pipeline which will solidify their political control over the EU.

Despite ham-fisted propaganda and diplo-speak to the contrary, NATO is an aggressive alliance designed to further Anglo/European hegemony over Eurasia. The policy is informed by the writings of Halford Mackinder more than 100 years ago.

He who controls the world island of Eurasia controls the world. If you can’t control it, stop anyone else from doing so. That simple maxim drives so many people within Western foreign policy and military circles.

It’s an idea dying a little more with each generation but since Davos refuses to let the next generations take control in the U.S. and Europe, the policy persists with whatever energy a bunch of octogenarians can muster.

However, while Mackinder still dominates Western thinking about Russia and China, over the past couple of decades there has been a subtle but very real shift in the internal power balance of between Europe and the US, to the US’s disadvantage.

Europe wants to control Western foreign policy, supplanting the US/UK axis which has dominated since WWI or earlier.

This is at the heart of my theory of Davos — Old European money wants to take back control of Western economic and foreign policy from the Yanks and the Colonies after two centuries of subordination.

And what has become clear to me is that, post-Trump/post-Brexit, there are sincere faults within the cozy relationship between these two culturally very different tribes — the Anglosphere of the US/UK and the traditional European colonial powers.

As the USSR fell, when Russia was weak, it was easy for them to be united in common cause: Destroy the USSR, strip the resultant Russian Federation of its assets, take over the country from within, centralize control over Europe in Brussels, elevate the post-WWII Institutions to enforce a New World Order.

This is the essence of the Bill Browder story and all of the subsequent NATO expansion eastward.

Out with Brzezinski, in with Putin

This dynamic shifted when Putin came to power, but was really felt for real when Russia intervened in Syria in 2013, stopping Obama’s invasion plans, after the Tories refused David Cameron to follow Obama. Putin used diplomacy to pull things back from the brink.

Russia’s reward for this was the Maidan uprising in late 2013/14 and the ouster of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, which led to the current situation: The Donbass in limbo, Crimea now a part of Russia and the West fuming mad over having been stymied as Putin successfully played for time.

He planted a flag of defiance then and began making a stand. He’d make that stand stick in October 2015 when Russian armed forces began supporting Syrian Arab Army forces retaking territory from US-backed ISIS and Al-Qaeda forces.

At the same time, Russia built an edifice of relationships (with China, with India, with Turkey, etc.) which chipped away at the relationship between the US/UK and Europe. It exposed the fault lines between them using Europe’s growing dependence on energy imports and its ideological desire to raise itself above the US/UK and replace them; feeling their new Empire, the EUSSR, was inevitable.

Putin and Xi have exploited this European hubris and British/American ‘contrariness’ to deepen the divides between them, quite successfully over the years.

But now let’s look seriously at Ukraine. Europe wants out of the conflict. The Anglos are desperate for it. France’s Macron and Germany’s Scholz have tried to defuse the situation. Biden and the Brits have done nothing but enflame it with insanely hysterical propaganda.

They’ve even gone so far as to telegraph a false flag event to get the war they want while Russia steadfastly denies it has expansionist designs on Ukraine. Russia doesn’t want Ukraine. It’s now an albatross, economically, politically and socially.

Russia already has what is truly valuable about Ukraine — the coal deposits and industry of the Donbass and the ports of Crimea. The rest of the country is a failed state courtesy of western meddling where everyone, including the EU, bear a lot of responsibility.

But if, as I’ve posited for over a year now, the Biden White House is controlled by Davos who absolutely do not want war with Russia. Why would he, of all people, be ginning up the biggest geopolitical standoff between nuclear-armed powers since 1962?

The conventional wisdom citing incompetence doesn’t cover it.

It’s too convenient an explanation.

Biden is a fall guy. He’s a puppet. Even those that run his White House are order-takers, not order-makers. This strategy doesn’t achieve anything if Biden is forced to back down, other than humiliation of the US.

So, if incompetence isn’t a good answer (which it isn’t, since it doesn’t fit the incentives of the people involved), we get more mileage out of it being a deliberate policy with a very definite goal. A game-changing goal. Big goals require big operations after all.

And the biggest geopolitical event since the Russians put missiles in Cuba meets that standard.

To me it looks like the best outcome for Davos is exactly this. Biden and the UK back down over Ukraine but get to save face in the process. Speaker Nancy Pelosi came out today and said exactly this, stopping Russia through threats Putin couldn’t handle.

It means that this whole crisis was engineered. To what end? To finally allow Germany and France to take control of European foreign policy for the first time since the end of World War II. To do that you have to create a situation where the US, as the dominant member of NATO, is revealed to be a paper tiger when confronted by an immovable opponent, in this case Russia.

Sure Pelosi and Biden will sell it as “Oooh, Biden so strong! Vote for us this fall.” But that’s just talk.

The longer this standoff went the worse the US and UK look in the eyes of the world. Don’t think for a second that wasn’t the whole point of this whole pointless exercise. It’s not a bug, but a feature.

The US and UK lose a tremendous amount of status, Biden gets a domestic policy “win,” and Europe gets its independence.

The Road Signs

So, when it comes to this Anglo/Euro split, it also means tying events in Ukraine back to monetary policy and Lagarde’s finding religion in rate hikes:

JP Morgan refused European banks’ collateral all throughout 2019 after Powell cut rates to stave off a market crash in January 2019, which set off the 2019 Repo Crisis in SOFR in September.
The Coronapocalypse was timed perfectly with Martin Armstrong’s ECM and the expectation of the Fed’s ‘goodwill’ for intervening after that event ran out, March 2020.
It was touched off over the OPEC+ meeting where Putin refused to cut production sending oil into the mother of all tailspins.
US banks are even more hostile today to European banks than they were in 2019.
I’ve received personal notes from European and American patrons that COVID relief loans cannot be repaid even though the people never spent the money, i.e. inflating assets of the banks.

The banking system in March 2020 was on the verge of collapse. Something had to be done. And COVID-19 was a perfect excuse to run a massive money printing operation to force the Fed back to the zero-bound.

Then Lagarde, just hours after the Bank of England (!!) raises rates a 2nd time, comes out hard in her rhetoric, sending the euro flying alongside euro-bond yields.

But it was this tweet from Zerohedge that made me stand up and take notice:

As Rorschach would say, hrm.

Nothing Lagarde said was particularly noteworthy. The policy statement was nearly identical to January’s. But the euro spiked on the news and J.P. Morgan gets crushed in the currency space? Yeah, and there’s no coincidence there.

So with that in mind, let’s take this Anglo/Euro split thesis as real and widening.

Here are just some of the recent headlines which connect a bunch of dots:

Russia and China add to their energy cooperation, 10 more bcm/yr and will settle in euros, not dollars.
Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is nominated for the Board of Governors of Gazprom, an upgrade over being on the board at Nordstream 2
Macron meets with Putin and both France and Germany sabotage the UN Security Council meeting called by the US/UK to isolate Russia, as explained nicely by The Duran.
AP reporter going after the State Dept. Spox for refusing to give ‘proof’ of a “Russian false flag” event, which went viral last week. Who ordered that bit of truth into the open?
The Biden Admin two-stepping on the ‘imminent invasion’ rhetoric while limiting all threats of sanctions contingent upon Russia ‘invading Ukraine.’
The UK pulling all of its troops out of Ukraine, after putting them there as tripwires for a NATO intervention.
Thanks to the Canadian Truckers most of Europe is lifting COVID restrictions, but it’s only in places that will drive ‘growth’ numbers.
Now they are being lifted all across the US as the Dems fear a complete wipeout in November.
Italy is further ground under the German bootheel, thanks to Draghi.
Undisclosed “breakthroughs” after nearly a year of no movement in JCPOA discussions in Vienna.
Biden lifted sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program last week. Europe needs Russia and China to be happy and get access to cheap Iranian gas/oil.
Biden let’s it slip that the real goal of the Ukraine operation is to “diminish Russia’s standing” worldwide during this weekend’s phone call with Putin, echoing Pelosi’s statements on the Sunday talk show circuit.
Germany refusing to go along with NATO’s troop buildup across Eastern Europe.

All of these things point to the split being not only real, but engineered. Macron tried working the peace angle to get himself re-elected in April/May. Boris Johnson in the UK is under pressure to resign over PartyGate, which is nonsensical.

The lame attempt to get Putin to throw the first punch in Ukraine has failed. The US just sent its premier fighters, F-22s to Abu Dhabi, not Berlin. All talk of a war has been nothing more than theater to create the opportunity for the Europeans to stand tall and look like the peacemakers.

The impetus for the final resolution here was Putin calling French President Emmanuel Macron out last week. He told Macron there will be no splitting hairs over NATO’s actions. Action by one member, according to Putin, is an action by all of them. So, if you don’t want a war that engulfs all of Europe, then you better get your American and British colleagues to realize this.

Mackinder’s End

It has been a bare knuckles fight to the finish between the US/UK Neocons and the EU Globalists here. And to those who are confused by Russia and China settling energy deals in euros, it is easy to work through.

Neither wants a disorderly collapse of the EU, just like Russia really doesn’t want a disorderly collapse of the US. This is a carrot to Lagarde and Schwab to deal with their own messes and leave them owing both Russia and China a favor. Also, remember, that Russia is looking to cleave Germany fully from the Anglosphere and what better way to do that then build up reserves in Germany’s currency to hold over them in the future if they get uppity again.

The Biden administration and the EU have backed off of all talks of the worst sanctions, i.e. SWIFT expulsion, which Europe never wanted despite some tough talk from Green ankle-biters. Those threats were always a bluff, as the boomerang effect would have been devastating for Europe.

Putin smartly hedged his bets with the duplicitous Europeans by cutting a deal with Hungary which is the model for more gas deals with smaller, peripheral buffer countries. Because once the US/UK fail to stop Nordstream 2, in light of their failure with Ukraine, new pipeline deals into Eastern and Southern Europe can commence.

Think now about Iran’s massive field in the Caspian and you can see where this is headed.

It’s a very different board now. The only thing keeping it from playing out as I’ve laid out here is the Brits pulling a false flag in the Donbass and forcing Russia to respond militarily.

And if that were a serious threat now the Brits wouldn’t be pulling all of their troops out and the EU wouldn’t be offering the UK the leadership role in Europe’s new security architecture. Oh, by the way, this means NATO is also on the outs.

This tells me that the Ukraine crisis is already over, that Biden and the US have been properly humiliated. If the UK wants to survive it should side with the winners of the conflict, the EU.

Which brings me all the way back to Lagarde and the ECB. Hers was a Hobson’s Choice to go hawkish. Europe’s victory over the US/UK may wind up being a Pyrrhic one. While they still have allies in the Biden administration, those allies have almost no real power to affect US policy now. I asked the question at the end of January, “Who’s Afraid of Jerome Powell?“

The answer, Christine Lagarde is.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

USA/RUSSIA//SYRIA/IRAN

People have not focused on this. Robert H brought this to your attention yesterday and it is very scary

(zerohedge)

Hypersonic-Equipped Russian Fighters Land In Syria Ahead Of Mediterranean Drills

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Russia declared Tuesday it was pulling back some of its forces near the Ukrainian border in what seems like de-escalation despite western corporate media hyping headlines every minute of the day, for the last week, of an “imminent” Russian invasion of Ukraine. Readers should refocus their attention to Syria, where Russia plans naval drills with hypersonic missiles in the Mediterranean.

Reuters, citing Russian RIA and TASS media outlets, said Russian warships, bombers, and hypersonic missile-equipped fighter jets had been repositioned to Syria.

The drills will involve several Russian fleets and take part in the eastern part of the Mediterranean, they cited Russia’s defense ministry as saying.
Earlier on Tuesday, Russia announced plans for a similar exercise in the Barents Sea. -Reuters

Military observes have already pointed out Russian warplanes are en route to Syria.

There’s even alleged video of a Mikoyan MiG-31, the fighter jet that can carry the Kinzhal nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missile, landing at a Russian military base in Latakia, Syria.

Busy, busy Moscow, who has now pivoted from what appears to be Ukraine to Syria as war drills with hypersonic air-launched missiles could be nearing in the Mediterranean.

The question we ask readers is how US intel folks will dish out the next round of reports to western corporate media who were put on an embarrassing display over the last week for hyping “imminent” World War Three headlines

END.

end

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE

Are They Finally Admitting Natural Immunity?

TUESDAY, FEB 15, 2022 – 09:25 PM

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

In late January, the CDC published a report that made what might have been regarded as a shocking claim. If you have had Covid, the CDC demonstrated in a chart, you gain robust immunity that is better than that of vaccination, especially concerning duration.

That should be nothing surprising. Brownstone has chronicled 150 studies making that point. What made this new chart different was that it came from the CDC, which has buried the point so deeply for so long as to amount to a near denial.

So there: the CDC says it. So nonchalant! So uneventful!

If people had understood this two years ago, plus been made more completely aware of the dramatic risk gradient by age and health, lockdowns would have been completely untenable.

The society-wide mandates and lockdowns depended on keeping the public ignorant on settled points of cell biology and immunology, plus pressuring social media companies to censor anyone who didn’t fall in line. Here we are all this time later and the truth is coming out.

Had the knowledge of risk gradients and immunities been in the forefront of policy makers’ minds – instead of wild fear and obsequious deference to Fauci – we would have focused on protecting the vulnerable and otherwise allowed society to function normally so that the virus would become endemic. We would not only have saved thousands of lives; we could have avoided the vast economic, educational, cultural, and public-health wreckage all around us.

Somehow at the time, that point was made unsayable for reasons on which we can only speculate. And yet today, the New York Times had said exactly this. In a piece by David Leonhardt called Protecting the Vulnerable, he writes:

With the Omicron wave receding, many places are starting to remove at least some of their remaining pandemic restrictions. This shift could have large benefits. It could reduce the isolation and disruption that have contributed to a long list of societal ills, like rising mental-health problems, drug overdoses, violent crime and, as Substack’s Matthew Yglesias has written, “all kinds of bad behavior.”

At the same time, there remain those who are vulnerable and they deserve protection: “They include the elderly and people with immunodeficiencies that put them at greater Covid risk. According to the C.D.C., more than 75 percent of vaccinated people who have died from Covid had at least four medical risk factors.”

You can read that again: unhealthy but vaccinated people still die. What these people need is to enjoy the protection of herd immunity, the point at which the virus exhausts itself in the face of widespread immunity.

If you have followed this debate, you know exactly the origin of that precise idea now being pushed in part by Leonhardt: The Great Barrington Declaration. This is the document on which Francis Collins and Anthony Fauci ordered a media hit back in October 2020. It advocated nothing more than traditional public health measures as a moderate solution between lockdowns and complete negligence of the virus threat.

As decent as this article is, it overlooks a huge issue, namely why would non-vulnerable populations be forced to get a non-durable vaccine with risks when natural immunity is a known option? Leonhardt doesn’t go there but he should have.

Today, even Anthony Fauci is singing a different tune. He told the Financial Times:

“There is no way we are going to eradicate this virus,” he said. “But I hope we are looking at a time when we have enough people vaccinated and enough people with protection from previous infection that the Covid restrictions will soon be a thing of the past.”

Further:

As we get out of the full-blown pandemic phase of Covid-19, which we are certainly heading out of, these decisions will increasingly be made on a local level rather than centrally decided or mandated. There will also be more people making their own decisions on how they want to deal with the virus.”

Again, this is straight out of the Great Barrington Declaration, almost to a word, but without acknowledgement.

There can be no question that early on in lockdowns, Fauci, the CDC, and the WHO all decided to bury the point that we would get to endemicity the same way we always have.

How did that happen? Paul Allan Offit is an epidemiologist who advises (or did advise) the Biden administration in the early days. He is not my favorite guy but, as things go, he is no Anthony Fauci. He seems sincere and intelligent.

Offit variously appears on podcasts. Last week, he let slip an astonishing thing. He said that early on in the pandemic, he met at the White House with Walensky, Fauci, Collins, and one other person. The topic was whether the Biden administration should recognize natural immunity to Covid — the most well-established fact about cell biology. He and one other person said absolutely. The rest said no.

Here is the remarkable clip.

Offit is fascinating in this interview because it was pretty clear to him that he was revealing something very important but he did not know whether this was going to be some kind of problem. He then proceeded to tell the story. He did not speculate about the reasons. He was smiling and laughing throughout the interview.

The immunity passports in place in three of the biggest American cities (though DC just repealed its own), the entire public sector, plus the attempt to impose them on the whole of the private sector, probably constitute the most invasive, aggressive, and controversial public policy since the Vietnam War draft. It all could have been fixed by a recognition of the immunological reality: the exposed and recovered are protected. That point of science was rejected by Fauci, Collins, and Walensky. The whole Biden administration went along.

We didn’t know until last week that this Offit meeting had even occurred. And surely this is just the tip of the iceberg. The more that time goes on, the more questions are piling up about this gang that wrecked liberty in the US after Inauguration Day 2021, a time when they could have reversed all the restrictions but instead went the other way.

Central to the concern here is what precisely happened in February 2020 to cause Fauci to forge plans to lock down the entire American economy for a virus that he previously said repeatedly could not be stopped. Why did he change his mind? We have plenty of evidence that his change of mind was related to his fear — real or imagined — that the pathogen was made in a lab and was leaked either deliberately or accidentally and that he would likely bear responsibility. Fauci and his friends were on burner phones for weeks and holding secret meetings. The HHS document ordering lockdowns were all forged in these weeks.

If the Republicans take back Congress, they are going to have a real time discovering the inner workings of the deep state here, if they find the courage to look deeply enough. That such an obvious and settled point of science became taboo for a time is truly a scandal for the ages. Now we know that it was a deliberate decision. Why? And why are we only now hearing about it, long after knowing this truth might have saved so much destruction?

end

Leading From Behind: CDC Hints COVID Mask Mandate Will End ‘Next Week’ Now That States Have Moved First

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 01:01 PM

For the umpteenth time since the start of the COVID pandemic, the US CDC is leading from behind.

Already, more than a dozen states including California (the largest by population) had already decided on their own to lift COVID-inspired masking measures in most public places, the federal agency is only now just ready to admit that they have served their purpose, and are ready to be retired.

NBC News apparently got the scoop: they were the first to report that teh CDC is planning to finally drop its federal mask mandate – or “loosen” its guidelines on indoor masking, as NBC News writes it – as early as “next week”. CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky later confirmed as much during a CDC press briefing.

Here’s what she reportedly told NBC News:

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the CDC, is expected to discuss masking guidance Wednesday at a White House Covid-19 Response Team briefing.
Nothing has been finalized yet, but the CDC is considering a new benchmark for whether masks are needed, basing it on the level of severe disease and hospitalizations in a given community, two people familiar with the situation said.
The White House has been eager for the CDC to provide an update on its indoor mask recommendation, although it wants the agency to get it right and it doesn’t want to appear as though it is putting political pressure on the agency, said the two people familiar with the plans, who weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

To be sure, as Walensky herself insisted yet again (perhaps on the off chance that cases come soaring back next week, which, judging on prior data, seems highly unlikely, but we suppose not impossible) no final decisions have yet been made.

Even Dr. Anthony Fauci himself has suggested that he now feels it might be appropriate to abandon the masking guidance as the number of newly confirmed COVID cases falls sharply.

States’ making changes to their mask rules is “entirely understandable,” Fauci said. “At the local level, there is a strong feeling of need to get back to normality.”
Senior administration officials have asked Walensky to provide an update on masks before President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address on March 1, one of the people said.
The agency currently recommends universal indoor masking in areas with substantial or high transmission, which is determined by the number of cases per 100,000 and the test positivity rate. The vast majority of counties in the U.S. fall under those criteria, according to CDC data.

A few hours after the NBC News story broke, Dr Walensky confirmed some of the details during a press briefing, saying the mask guidance could finally be changed some time in late February or “early March”.

Cases and hospitalizations have fallen sharply in recent weeks, though deaths have been stubbornly high in the US.

NBC News concluded by noting that most states and localities have decided to “shift their strategies” as new “tools” like COVID therapeutics have been made available. Call it a triumph of “the science”.

end

From Israel//Jerusalem Post and research from Spain this is very big!! Long covid causes vagus nerve damage

(zerohedge)

Breakthrough Research Finds Link Between ‘Long COVID’ And Vagus Nerve Damage

TUESDAY, FEB 15, 2022 – 10:25 PM

New research out of Israel has just confirmed that the puzzling long-COVID phenomenon, which has caused so much fuss around the world, might be caused by damage to one of the most influential nerves in the human body.

For those among us who aren’t familiar with the vagus nerve, it’s the 10th cranial nerve, and the longest and most complex in that category. Still, repairing nerve damage will be essential since the nerve exerts control over the gastrointestinal tract, along with the face and chest.

New research is set to be presented at this year’s European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases investigates the connection between post-COVID syndrome, also known as long COVID, and the vagus nerve.

This ‘pilot study’ was authored by Dr. Gemma Lladós and Dr. Lourdes Mateu of the Germans Trias i Pujol University Hospital Badalona, Spain, and its findings will be presented at the congress, taking place between April 23-26 in Lisbon.

The study suggests that vagus nerve damage caused by SARS-CoV-2 dysfunction could be responsible for many of the symptoms of long COVID, including persistent voice problems, difficulty swallowing, dizziness, abnormally fast heart rate – aka tachycardia – low blood pressure and digestive issues.

Here’s more on the study’s findings from the Jerusalem Post:

Long COVID is a condition characterized by persistent and continuous health issues caused by COVID-19 after the patient has recovered from the initial infections. It can affect nearly every organ in the body, as well as cause a range of mental health and nervous system disorders. Some of the most common symptoms of long COVID include fatigue, headaches, shortness of breath, loss of smell and taste, and muscle weakness.
In order to further understand the phenomenon, the researchers used imaging and functional tests, as well as a morphological and functional evaluation of the vagus nerve, in an assessment of long COVID patients presenting one or more signs of VND.
Out of the 348 patients taking part in the study, two-thirds (228) had at least one symptom of VND among their long COVID symptoms. After the initial assessments were completed, further evaluations were conducted on a test group of 22 patients, all presenting VND symptoms.

Tachycardia and dizziness were two of the most commonly-reported symptoms of long COVID.

Of the 22 subjects analyzed, 20 were women with a median age of 44, and on average the symptoms had been present in the participants for 14 months.
The most frequent VND symptoms presented were diarrhea (73% of subjects), tachycardia (59%), and dizziness, difficulty swallowing, and voice problems (45% each). An additional 14% of patients suffered from low blood pressure.
All in all, 86% of the patients assessed had at least three different VND-related symptoms.

While the findings were revelatory, opening up a new avenue of research for scientists inside and outside Israel, the dynamics driving the vagus nerve damage remain a mystery.

As the exact cause of long COVID and the reason why symptoms present in such a varied way from patient to patient is not currently known, the study’s findings could impact and change the understanding and treatment of the condition significantly going forward.
“In this pilot evaluation, most long COVID subjects with vagus nerve dysfunction symptoms had a range of significant, clinically-relevant, structural and/or functional alterations in their vagus nerve, including nerve thickening, trouble swallowing, and symptoms of impaired breathing,” summarized the study’s authors.
“Our findings so far thus point at vagus nerve dysfunction as a central pathophysiological feature of long COVID.”

But given the prevalence of long COVID this breakthrough will certainly be remembered as a relief for researchers and patients both.

end

Expect deadly annual shots of COVID 19 vaccines

(zerohedge)

“A Recurring Fountain Of Revenue”: FDA Exec Admits Biden Planning Annual Shots, Including Toddlers

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 09:12 AM

Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Executive Officer Christopher Cole was caught on undercover camera by Project Veritas, where he revealed that his agency plans to announce that annual Covid-19 vaccinations will become official policy.

As Project Veritas reports (emphasis ours):

Cole is an Executive Officer heading up the agency’s Countermeasures Initiatives, which plays a critical role in ensuring that drugs, vaccines, and other measures to counter infectious diseases and viruses are safe. He made the revelations on a hidden camera to an undercover Project Veritas reporter.

Cole indicates that annual COVID-19 shots isn’t probable — but certain. When pushed on how he knows an annual shot will become policy, Cole states, “Just from everything I’ve heard, they [FDA] are not going to not approve it.”

The footage, which is part one of a two-part series on the FDA, also contains soundbites from Cole about the financial incentives pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer have to get the vaccine approved for annual usage.

“It’ll be recurring fountain of revenue,” Cole said in the hidden camera footage. “It might not be that much initially, but it’ll recurring — if they can — if they can get every person required at an annual vaccine, that is a recurring return of money going into their company.”

Perhaps the most explosive part of the footage is the moment where Cole brazenly talks about the impact that an Emergency Use Authorization has on overcoming the regulatory concerns of mandating vaccines on children.

“They’re all approved under an emergency just because it’s not as impactful as some of the other approvals,” Cole said when asked if he thought there was “really an emergency for kids.”

Cole, who claims his role with the FDA is to ensure the agency uses a framework of safety, security, and effectiveness as a part of its preparedness and response protocol, specifically cited concerns over “long term effects, especially with someone younger.”

end

Explosive: Embalmer reveals 93% of cases have deadly clots caused by the COVID vax

Inbox

Explosive: Embalmer reveals 93% of cases have deadly clots caused by the COVID vax

CANADA/CONVOY/EMERGENCY MEASURES ACT

Ottawa’s “Freedom Convoy” Protesters Dig In As Canadian Government Suffers ‘Alex Jones’ Moment

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 10:25 AM

Facing nearly a dozen separate “Freedom Convoy”-inspired protests that seemed to be springing up faster than police and his government could disperse them, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau invoked a national emergency to implement sweeping police powers late Monday.

Yet, protesters and their supporters continued, as protesters in Ottawa “dug in”, while new demonstrations sprung up in Alberta and Manitoba, but by Tuesday, Trudeau and his government had clearly had enough. They needed a new scapegoat. Enter, 13 “demonstrators” who were arrested purportedly due to their involvement with the Coutts blockade. Police claimed they seized “13 long guns and a large quantity of ammunition in an early-morning raid targeting three trailers that were part of a blockade”.

Canada’s Public Safety Minister, Marco Mendicino said as much during a press briefing on Tuesday.

“There have been those who have tried to characterize these illegal blockades [as being] about vaccines and mandates and fatigue with the pandemic. That is not what is driving this movement right now,” Marco Mendicino, Canada’s Public Safety Minister, said at a news conference Tuesday.
“What is driving this movement is a very small, organized group that is driven by an ideology to overthrow the government through whatever means they may wish to use,” he said.

In what sounded like the preamble to another “Alex Jones” moment, some “national security experts” have asked the Canadian government to provide more “clarification.”

Mendicino’s comments led some national security experts to call on the government to provide clarification. “I do think that it behooves the government to explain themselves, to the extent that they can, while maintaining national security,” said Leah West, a national security expert at Carleton University in Ottawa.

Just remember that the “threat of violence” is integral to Trudeau’s argument for his national emergency order.

Mr. Mendicino’s comments led some national security experts to call on the government to provide clarification. “I do think that it behooves the government to explain themselves, to the extent that they can, while maintaining national security,” said Leah West, a national security expert at Carleton University in Ottawa.
The official order published Tuesday by the Canadian government lays out the justification for invoking extraordinary measures under the Emergencies Act, and what specific powers it will be using. The order said the government would, among other things, ban protests that police believe would lead to unlawful activity, prohibit gatherings near critical infrastructure such as border crossings, and allow authorities to commandeer tow trucks to help police remove demonstrators’ vehicles.
The order said the protests in downtown Ottawa and at border crossings constitute a public-order emergency because of the threat of violence and unrest, and the disruption caused to the supply-chain network and two-way trade with the U.S.

These passages likely read as comical to anybody who was in attendance in Ottawa this weekend. But as protesters reportedly dig in, daring the Canadian government to try and break up each action individually, while new ones continuously re-emerge, sounds like a frustrating game of whack-a-mole, or a novel and convincing grass roots movement with a handful of easily communicable demands.

In reality, what appears to have happened in Coutts couldn’t be more different from this portrayal. Only a few dozen protesters remaind and were dutifully detained by police during a pre-dawn raid which we chronicled over the weekend. But sure, inform us again how this transnational movement is really the work of a handful of deranged anarchists and white supremacists.

The notion that the hundreds of thousands of people who have financially contributed to, or directly participated in, the protests might be anarchists seeking to “overthrow the government” still seems ludicrous on its face. Chris Barber, an organizer for the main group behind the protests, said removing the vaccine mandates remained the movement’s primary goal: “All we want is the Covid vaccine mandates removed,” Chris Barber said. “There’s never been a case for trying to overthrow the government.”

And there’s never really been a case to link ‘the movement’ with the actions of a handful of its least-well-behaved participants. Remember what they said when certain journalists and news outlets made those same “connections” about BLM?

END

Trudeau Just ADMITTED That The Real Purpose Of Martial Law Is To ‘Terrify Canadians’ Into Submission – enVolve

Inbox

With the majority of Canadians disagreeing with him, one imagines this will anger more people than it will scare. And it is likely to alienate those people still supporting him within the party itself. Many prominent supporters distanced themselves, before he did this.

Trudeau Just ADMITTED That The Real Purpose Of Martial Law Is To ‘Terrify Canadians’ Into Submission

Cheers
Robert

Trudeau Will Freeze the Bank Accounts of All Protestors | Armstrong Economics

Inbox

While trying to hold an open mind to all sides of any debate, the actions being taken taken by Trudeau and the bunch are more likely to sink the Canadian economy and collapse the housing market before it is all done. At that point there will be much bigger issues.
Canadians who have no current views are likely to get very upset in coming weeks and months, as fallout occurs and becomes evident. As for foreign capital flow into Canada in everything from housing to industry, it just stopped. This will impact everyone, including the stock market. And as for tourism this spring or summer, it went into toilet. Canada is being slaughtered in the international press and social media.
Come April the signs of the damage will quite evident.

Trudeau Will Freeze the Bank Accounts of All Protestors

END

EXCLUSIVE: Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland’s Grandfather Was a Nazi and She Admires George Soros. It’s No Surprise She’s Labeling Freedom-Loving Canadians Terrorists

Inbox

Did you know?

Not to say that a child has a say in parental selection, however it does raise unanswered questions as to her beliefs and how she was raised.

EXCLUSIVE: Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland’s Grandfather Was a Nazi and She Admires George Soros. It’s No Surprise She’s Labeling Freedom-Loving Canadians Terrorists

EXCLUSIVE: Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland’s Grandfather Was a Nazi and She Admires George Soros. It’s No Surprise She’s Labeling Freedom-Loving Canadians Terrorists

Yesterday Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland, announced crowdfunding for Canadians protesting for freedom will be considered terrorist financing. This comes as no surprise since her grandfather was a highly connected Nazi and she’s close to George Soros.

WOW! Trudeau Regime Announces Terrorist Financing Will Now Include Crowdfunding Donations for Anything They Don’t Like (VIDEO)

The Trudeau regime is being led by Trudeau and by the granddaughter of a high level Nazi under Hitler. Chrystia Freeland’s family has Nazi connections. Her grandfather was a high level Nazi who was being sought after the war by Polish authorities.

Freeland’s mother was Halyna who was the daughter of Nazi Khomiak. He was pictured with higher-up Nazis in Poland.

Freeeland is a fan of George Soros and has been pictured with him more than once. Soros helped the Nazis in his youth. Freeland’s grandfather was only three levels down from Hitler who was his boss’s boss’s boss.

Freeland’s mother met her when she was in Russia. [Look at how Freeland smiles at Soros below.]

Chrystia Freeland’s grandfather was a Nazi. She like George Soros and now she is pushing an anti-freedom agenda on Canadians and referring to those who support freedom and protest against the insane anti-freedom mandates as terrorists.

GLOBAL ISSUES//

END

VACCINE IMPACT

Michael Every

on the major topics of the day

Michael Every…

Rabo: Cliff Edges Don’t Move

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 09:30 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

For those in markets who find geopolitics too complex to follow and too disruptive to risk-on-and-wait-for-central-banks-to-save-us trading strategies, yesterday was just what the doctor ordered: Russian President Putin stepping back from the cliff edge by withdrawing troops and saying he was prepared to engage with some US ideas over the INF treaty about land-based nuclear missile placement. (Oh, how markets prefer the IMF to the INF!) As stated yesterday, that was always the best way to see which of the conflicting historical analogies were true. As a result, markets relaxed, with oil taking a real tumble from $96 to $92 a barrel, stocks up, and key bond yields following (US 10s up 12bp intraday). The stock market even chose to look past a shocking US PPI print where prices were up 1.0% m/m and 9.7% y/y headline and 0.8% m/m and 8.3% excluding food and energy.

Yet cliff edges don’t move even if you do. They run for miles, and not in a straight line.

While Putin was saying he didn’t want war and offering secure gas via Nordstream 2, and collaboration on green energy(!), to Chancellor Scholz of Germany, the Russian Duma voted to forward him the option to recognize the Russian-backed ‘Donbas republics’ of Luhansk and Donetsk. Such a decision would partition Ukraine and make Russia responsible for protecting the two new ‘states’ – which Putin declared are suffering “genocide” from Kyiv. Local journalists already reported a major bomb plot was foiled there, and local military forces are being stepped up to maximum readiness. Putin can now offer to trade the Donbas for ‘Minsk’: if Kyiv does not Finlandize itself, he can carve it up, and offer a Russian narrative of being the victim. He can even do this while mocking the US reports of a Russian invasion set for today by deliberately playing around with any timetable he might (or might not) have had.

Likewise, the troop withdrawal seizes the narrative back for Moscow without conceding ground. US intelligence, media, Russia military experts, and OSINT (open signals intelligence) are all reporting the Russian ‘pullback’ looks more like a redeployment for now – and in many cases closer to the Ukrainian border. ABC news quote an unnamed US official that “Russian troops have moved into ‘firing positions’.” We are again hearing allegations an attack could involve Moldova, and so the Black Sea, though Russia is to conduct major naval exercises in the nearby Mediterranean rather than channelling even further forces north through the Bosporus for now.

President Biden even gave a major public address stating while “there is still room for diplomacy” –which the FT is running with as its headline– a Russian invasion was still “distinctly possible”; a bipartisan group of US senators made a joint statement promising “strong, robust, and effective sanctions on Russia” if so; and the US and Kyiv both publicly say it is up to Ukraine to decide if it wants to join NATO or not, the reddest of red lines for Russia. Even Germany’s Scholz managed to say that Ukrainian NATO membership is not on the table NOW, keeping the door ajar at least in public, even if both Berlin and Paris clearly back the Minsk process that Kyiv won’t accept.

As Ukraine now suffers a series of major cyberattacks, which Reuters claims the US and allies are preparing to respond to, those who want an overview of the broader strategic situation from the Western perspective should read ‘The Plot to Destroy Ukraine’ by The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. I quote one key passage – ‘Multiple Paths to Victory’:

“For the Ukrainian state, the threat is both acute and protracted… Russia has consequently laid the groundwork to achieve victory along several paths and is pursuing all of them simultaneously. Indeed, the combined threat has fixed Ukraine because the measures best suited to countering one Russian path to victory are precisely those that would precipitate defeat on a different axis. If Ukraine mobilizes to deter an invasion, Russia can destroy its economy and break the cohesion of the Ukrainian state. If the Ukrainians move to break up the networks eating their country from the inside, their government will be weakened and vulnerable to pressure from the West to accept the sacrifice of Ukrainian sovereignty. If the Ukrainian government remains steady, and the West holds firm in supporting Ukrainian sovereignty, then Russia may resort to invading the country and using its covert networks to enact systematic repression.
Countering these threats will not be achieved through a breakthrough diplomatic summit. Nor will the delivery of small quantities of military aid change the conventional balance of forces. It is entirely plausible that, in their erratic lack of focus, Western governments have lurched into crisis mode too late to have many meaningful options. If Ukraine survives the next month, however, then Western policy must be multi-layered and coherent.”

Multi-layered. Coherent. Western. Wishful thinking on any policy front, let alone geostrategy/politics? Yet if not, the tail risks are clear. It is not about Ukraine. It is about the global order and architecture. Indeed, this particular cliff edge runs for miles –to the Arctic; the Balkans; the Middle East; the Himalayas; the Indian Ocean; the South China Sea; the South Pacific; even Latin America– while markets’ attention spans run for minutes. At least Bloomberg’s headline this morning was “Pullback?” rather than “Pullback!” though.

Meanwhile, against the backdrop of: Xi Jinping telling Hong Kong to fight Covid harder, suggesting lockdowns could get a whole lot more lock-downy; the FT reporting a major UK law firm has told its HK office to make a “China pivot” and hire more mainlanders due to the direction the city is heading in; and Bloomberg carrying a story about how Chinese nationalism has pushed out leading Western sporting brands from the local market despite their attempts to avoid politics, today saw Chinese CPI and PPI both came in lower than expected, PPI at 9.1% y/y and CPI at just 0.9%. So Chinese PPI is similar to the US but trending lower, and CPI is over 8 times lower already. Aren’t state capitalism, and cheap coal, magic?! Prepare for sharp divergences in US and Chinese policy stances ahead.

More so given the US Treasury has issued regulations to implement sanctions on 59 Chinese companies aimed at blocking them from US financial markets: all US financial and stock companies and individual investors are now prohibited from engaging in securities trading that in any way financially benefits the named Chinese enterprises or their executives, all designated as military entities by the Pentagon. These sanctions openly target parts of the “military-industrial complex” that align with the civilian economy in China, in what Beijing has openly dubbed a “fusion strategy.” Treasury also says it intends to supplement these regulations with a more comprehensive set of regulations, which may include additional interpretive guidance and definitions, general licenses, and other regulatory provisions. The cumulative impact of these steps could be significant – if enforced: and that is before we see how Beijing retaliates. Do markets again face a cliff edge related to the military?

7. OIL ISSUES

This backs up what Tom Luongo is writing about

a very important read

Alastair Crooke….

Nord Stream: The Geopolitics Of Keeping Germany ‘Down’, Russia ‘Out’, & Instability In Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 12:05 AM

Authored by Alastair Crooke, former British diplomat, founder and director of the Beirut-based Conflicts Forum,

It seems reasonable to expect we will have this crisis with us – in its various forms – for at least the next two years…

Macron in a remarkably frank interview with a French Journal put his finger on the main structural problems facing the EU: He lambasted the fact that the EU Council (and other EU states) had vetoed the earlier French-German proposal for a Russia-EU summit. The consequences to this omission, he said starkly, was that: ‘Others’ were talking to the Russians on the behalf of the EU. It’s not hard to surmise that he is implying that U.S. ‘interests’ (whether directly or via NATO ventriloquism) were the ones doing the talking. And that ‘Europe’ had lost its voice.

This is not simply a case of wounded amour propre by the French Jupiterian leader. It is rather, that some West European leaders (ie. the Carolingian Axis), belatedly have awoken to the realisation that the whole fake artifice of the ‘imminent Russian invasion’ of Ukraine is about corralling European states back into bloc (NATO) discipline. Macron – to give him his due – showed by his remarks at the Moscow press conference that he understood that silence at this crucial moment could define Europe for the next decades – leaving it bereft of the autonomy (let alone any modicum of sovereignty) that Macron so much wants for Europe.

The account of Macron’s press conference after his long tête-à-tête with Putin represents the contortionism of a French President unable to explicitly diss the dominant Anglo-American narrative on Ukraine, whilst saying – in barely coded language – that he was at one with Russia on all its complaints about the failed European security architecture, and the real risks of its toxicity for Russia that could lead to war in Europe.

Macron explicitly said that new security arrangements in Europe are absolutely needed. (In spite of his care not to poke the U.S. in the eye, he was clearly signalling a non-NATO ‘new’ arrangement). He also flatly contradicted the Washington narrative, saying that he did not believe Russia had an intent to invade Ukraine. Adding that in respect to NATO expansion, mistakes had been made.

Macron, in short, came out at complete odds with the Biden narrative of imminent war. He clearly risks an outpouring of Anglo-U.S. and some European wrath for unreservedly taking on board Putin’s ‘not an inch’ stance of full Kiev compliance with Minsk, and a complete settlement for Donbass, as his own. The French President subsequently travelled to Kiev to shore up the ceasefire on the Contact Line. Predictably, the Anglo press is now hailing Minsk II as a weapon being held to the head of Kiev – precisely loaded to fracture the state and trigger a civil war.

Macron, from his comments, seemingly understands that the Ukraine crisis – through posing grave risks war inside Europe – paradoxically does not lie at the heart of the Carolingian fears.

Strikingly, China is saying the same explicitly: The authoritative Global Times in an editorial warns that the U.S. is instigating conflict in Ukraine in order to tighten bloc discipline – to corral European States back into the U.S.-led fold. No doubt, China makes the connection that Ukraine provides the perfect pivot for shepherding Europe towards America’s next stage of requiring a united front with the U.S. for the later task of barricading-in China, behind her borders.

In play, therefore, are key decisions that will define Europe for the future. On the one hand, (as Pepe Escobar noted some two years ago), “the goal of Russian and Chinese policy is to recruit Germany into a triple alliance locking together the Eurasian land mass à la Mackinder into the greatest geopolitical alliance in history – switching world power in favour of these three great powers, and against Anglo-Saxon sea power”.

And on the other hand, NATO was conceived, from the outset, as a means of Anglo-American control over Europe and more precisely for keeping Germany ‘down’, and Russia ‘out’ (in that old axiom of western strategists). Lord Hastings (Lionel Ismay), NATO’s first Secretary General, famously said that NATO was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”.

This mindset lingers on, but the formula has acquired today a greater import, and a new twist: To keep Germany ‘down and price uncompetitive’ versus U.S. goods; to keep Russia ‘out’ from being Europe’s source of cheap energy; and to keep China ‘fenced out’ from EU–U.S. trade. The aim is to contain Europe firmly within America’s narrowly defined economic orbit and compelled to forgo the benefits of Chinese and Russian technology, finance and trade – thus helping towards achieving the aim of barricading China within its borders.

Largely overlooked is the geo-political import: that China, for the first time, is directly intervening (taking a very clear and powerful stance) on a matter central to European affairs. In the longer term, this suggests that China will be taking a more politically orientated approach to its relations with European states.

In this context, at the Biden and Olaf Scholtz’s press conference in Washington this week – lit up, in flashing neon lights, for all to see – Biden literally bullied Germany into a commitment to scrap Nordstream 2 (should Russia invade Ukraine), reflecting Washington’s aim to keep Germany on the leash of bloc discipline. He effectively said that if Scholtz doesn’t bin Nordstream, then he, Biden, would do it: “I can do it”, he underlined.

Yet, the moment he gives that undertaking, Germany’s little slice of sovereignty is gone – Scholtz yields it to Washington. Moreover, Macron’s aspiration to some wider euro-autonomy is gone too, for without French and German policy alignment, EU ‘pretend sovereignty’ is gone. Moreover, if Nordstream is binned, EU energy security is blown away. And with little real alternative supply, the EU is nailed for good to expensive U.S. LNG dependency (with the likelihood of gas price crises at home, too).

It is not clear (and a likely source of anxiety for Macron), whether Germany’s refusal to give Biden his desired Nordstream ultimatum represents any meaningful reserve of Euro-sovereignty at all. What would happen were Washington to incite the Ukrainian militia ‘crazies’ into some outrage, or into a false flag attack that triggers mayhem?

Would Scholtz be able to hold his Nordstream ‘line’ in the ensuing frenzy that the Anglo-axis would whip up? The little space which Macron has been trying to free-up in order to resolve the Ukraine crisis, would evaporate in the moment.

All this underlines what a narrow ‘line’ Macron is trying to walk: Were Schulz ‘to cave’ over Nordstream, Macron’s aspirations to re-shape Europe’s security architecture inevitably would be perceived in Moscow – though laudable – as hollow for their lack of any real European agency.

And in the Ukrainian particular, Macron’s room for manoeuvre to prevent a war in Europe would be attenuated, since only by Macron (backed by the EU), acting in lockstep with Putin, would there be a chance to compel Kiev to implement Minsk II.

The list of Macron’s challenges do not end there: France has the EU rotating Presidency, but EU foreign policy requires unanimity amongst member-states. Can he get that? Will Team Biden become so angered at France playing the maverick, that Washington resolves to stick a spanner in Macron’s works?

Biden needs a foreign policy achievement for his campaign into the Midterms. And 63% of Americans say they would support massive sanctions imposed on Russia, were Moscow to invade Ukraine. Biden is known to believe in the adage that ultimately all politics – including foreign policy – is subservient to domestic electoral needs. Heavily sanctioning Russia – with Europe acting in lockstep – is just the step that would likely be seen in the White House as giving his ratings a needed fillip. (And not unprecedented: Recall Bill Clinton, under pressure over the Lewinsky exposé, triggered the Balkan war to distract from his personal predicament).

Not surprisingly, President Putin is cautious.

Is Macron, who says he has consulted widely, speaking for the EU? And most important of all, where does Washington stand in this?

The most significant point to grasp from the Putin–Macron episode is that it gave the lie to the idea that Moscow is somehow hoping to open negotiations with the West on secondary issues, as a possible gateway to Russia’s existential concerns. Russia is open to negotiations, but only in respect to Putin’s three red lines: No NATO (including stealth NATO) in Ukraine; no strike missiles on Russia’s border; and the roll-back of NATO to the lines of 1997. Putin did not give an inch on the latter; he gave not an inch either on Minsk as the only solution in Ukraine. Putin did not give at all the impression of a man liking negotiating for the sake of negotiating.

Bottom line: No easy fixes. Even if conflict is frozen or paused over the short term, it will not hold longer-term, as the West refuses to acknowledge that Putin means what he says. This likely will only change through the sides’ experience of pain. The West, for now, sits sanguine in the belief that it has escalatory preponderance in the application of pain. We’ll see how true that proves to be.

It seems reasonable to expect we will have this crisis with us – in its various forms – for at least the next two years. These political initiatives mark but the start of a drawn-out, high-stakes, phase of a Russian effort to shift the European security architecture into a new form which the West presently rejects. The Russian aim will be to keep the pressures, and even the latency, of war ever-present, in order to harass war-averse Western leaders to make this necessary shift.

end

OIL/IRAN

Oil Tumbles After Iran Nuclear Negotiator Says “We Are Closer Than Ever To An Agreement”

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 03:21 PM

One of the biggest risks cited frequently by Goldman to its bullish oil case, was that the Iran nuclear deal would finally be signed, allowing several more million barrels of oil to hit the global market every day (even though Iran is already selling most of its oil products to China, just not strictly speaking legally).

Well, the reason why oil has slumped this afternoon is because Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani said on Twitter on Wednesday that “after weeks of intensive talks, we are closer than ever to an agreement; nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, though.”

Also on Wednesday, France said a decision on salvaging Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers was just days away and it was now up to Tehran to make the political choice.

Indirect talks between Iran and the United States on reviving the tattered agreement resumed last week after a 10-day hiatus.

Many have speculated that the Biden administration, which has seen its approval rating plummet as a result of surging inflation and near-record high gas prices, will ram through any deal with Iran in hopes of unlocking the country’s oil output and depressing oil prices…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1491115682951483392&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcommodities%2Foil-tumbles-after-iran-nuclear-negotiator-says-we-are-closer-ever-agreement&sessionId=2aa1774dcb7f7d9fb7f6930cb406532c383a37ee&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

… and it now appears that that is the case, although to be sure this is not the first time we have heard that the US and Iran are “this close” to reaching a deal. In any case, oil has plunged to session lows, tumbling $4 from session highs.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

END

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1366 UP .0012 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED

USA/ YEN 115.68 UP 0.047 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3553 UP 0.0013

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 19.74 PTS OR 0.57%

Hang Sang CLOSED UP 363.19 PTS OR 1.49%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.10% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 363,19 PTS OR 1.49%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.74 PTS OR 0.57%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.10%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 595.21 PTS OR 2.22%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1848.90

silver:$23.28-

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 95.89 DOWN 10 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.15% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.221% UP 0 AND 5/10 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.19%// DOWN 5 in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.91 DOWN 7 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 74 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.280% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.69% AND NOW ABOVE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1377 UP .0022 or 22 basis points

USA/Japan: 115.43 DOWN 0.200 OR YEN UP 20 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3580 UP 39 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP 33 pts to 1.2693

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED )..UP 6.3372

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.3330

TURKISH LIRA: 13.63 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.221

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.046% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.364 UP 1 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.82 DOWN 17 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 5.14 PTS OR 0.07%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 42/41 points or 0.28%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 14.99PTS OR 0.21%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 19.20PTS OR 0.22%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 1.63 PTS OR 0.01%

WTI Oil price 94.50 12: EST

Brent Oil: 95.65 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE RISES: 75.26 THE CROSS LOWER BY 21 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 21 BASIS PTS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.280

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1388 UP .0033 OR 33 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3586 UP .0055 or 755basis pt

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 115.43 down .206

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2677 DOWN .0046 (cdn dollar UP 46 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 92.54

Brent: 93.14

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.040 DOWN 1 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.361 UP 0 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.60

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 75.19 DOWN 26 BASIS PTS (ROUBLE UP 26 PTS)

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 54.57 PTS OR 0.16%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 17.18 OR 0.12%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 24.30 DOWN 1.40 PTS (UP 5.45.%

GLD/NYSE CLOSING PRICE $174.86 UP $1.80 OR 1/04%

SLV/NYSE CLOSING PRICE: $21.79// UP $.15 OR 0.60%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks, Bonds, & Bitcoin Dump’n’Pump As ‘Meh’-Minutes Reverse Russia-Rout

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Bad* Russia, Good** data, and Just-Right*** Fed Minutes left rate-hike odds lower, stocks marginally higher, bonds unchanged, gold higher, and the dollar down.

That’s a lot of asterisks!

*US/NATO claimed that Russia was not retreating (but no evidence one way or the other was offered)
**Today’s strong economic data brought to you by i) seasonal adjustments (retail sales crashed in ‘unadjusted’ data), ii) freezing January (Industrial Production jumped thanks to a record surge in Utility demand). However, import prices (up 10.8%) show inflation ain’t going wishfully away.
***Fed Minutes said nothing and looked older than Charlie Munger as since the FOMC meeting, we have had a big jobs print and 2 huge inflation numbers.

At the end of the day it was a big roundtrip for a lot of markets with stocks dumping early and pumping late to end basically unchanged on the day

And as Real yields continue to rise, the question is – when will stocks catch down (or real yields realize The Fed was just kidding again)…

Source: Bloomberg

The odds of a 50bps hike in March dropped from around 70% earlier in the day to just below 50% by the close, following the Minutes…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all lower on the day with the short-end outperforming (2Y -7bps, 20Y -1bp)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve erased a lot of the post-Bullard flattening…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended losses today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin dropped this morning as it appeared Russia was not in retreat, then rallied notably as the afternoon wore on and the Minutes dropped…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum also rallied notably today as Twitter added the cryptocurrency to its tips feature…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied back, reversing much of yesterday’s “Russia retreat” losses…

Oil was chaos today, dropping yesterday on Russia’s apparent retreat, then ripping all the way back on claims that Russia was not retreating, then dumping back down Iran nuke talks headlines….

Lumber’s gone vertical once again, back above $1300

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that gold and real-yields have decoupled from their historic relationship…

Source: Bloomberg

However, as Goldman recently pointed out, historically, gold tends to increase during rate hike periods when gold’s negative correlation with long term real rates also tends to break down. This is already happening with gold displaying resilience to the most recent increase in US 10 year real rates. In our previous research, we argued that this has to do with the fact that the rate hikes themselves can lead to fears of a growth slowdown and recession and therefore boost demand for safe haven assets, such as gold. This means if inflation fails to slow down in the second half of 2022 and the Fed is forced to hike more than currently expected, gold should be resilient as this would increase fears of a potential recession. And Goldman believes believe that gold is a geopolitical hedge of last resort.

I) /MORNING TRADING/

Stocks, Bond Yields Tumble As Blinken Says ‘No Evidence Of Russian Pullback’

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 08:56 AM

Once again the algos are watching every word on Russia and this morning its SecState Blinken’s turn to trigger the swings:

*BLINKEN: NO EVIDENCE OF RUSSIA PULLBACK

And that sent stocks downb…

…and bond yields…

How long before Ukraine denies it? And of course, no satellite images showing movements were provided as evidence of whether or not this is actually happening.

END

AFTERNOON

FOMC Minutes Show Fed To Rush Rate-Hikes, Leaves QT Details Up In The Air

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 02:09 PM

Since the Jan 26th FOMC meeting, bonds have been a bloodbath while stocks and gold are higher and the dollar flat…

Source: Bloomberg

We have also seen a dramatic rise in rate-hike odds in the period since the last FOMC meeting (helped in some part by Jim Bullard’s uber hawkish perspective), with a 60% chance of a 50bps hike in March priced-in…

Source: Bloomberg

And as the liftoff and trajectory of rate-hikes soared, the yield curve has collapsed signaling growing market fears that The Fed is on a path to a policy error…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps most notable is the fact the forward curve has moved rapidly to price in rate-cuts starting in 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Which is now very obviously pricing in a more hawkish Fed in the short-term and then a dovish collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

With all that said, today’s release of the Fed Minutes are somewhat moot, given all the post-FOMC FedSpeak, but all eyes will be on any signaling around the 50bps hike, the timing of QT, and any comments on the terminal rate (the peak rate of the hiking cycle) anyone on The Fed expects.

Here’s what they want us to see (even though this was before the big jobs print and 2 huge inflation prints):

On The Fed Balance Sheet

“In light of elevated inflation pressures and the strong labor market, participants continued to judge that the Committee’s net asset purchases should be concluded soon.“
“Most participants preferred to continue to reduce the Committee’s net asset purchases according to the schedule announced in December, bringing them to an end in early March“
“A couple of participants stated that they favored ending QE sooner to send an even stronger signal that the Committee was committed to bringing down inflation.”

On QT:

“While no decisions regarding specific details for reducing the size of the balance sheet were made at this meeting, participants agreed to continue their discussions at upcoming meetings.”

On inflation

“Participants remarked that recent inflation readings had continued to significantly exceed the Committee’s longer-run goal and elevated inflation was persisting longer than they had anticipated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy.”
“Some participants commented that elevated inflation had broadened beyond sectors most directly affected by those factors, bolstered in part by strong consumer demand”
“Some participants reported that their business contacts remained concerned about persistently high inflation and that they were adjusting their business practices to cope with higher input costs – for instance, by raising output prices or utilizing contracts that were contingent on their costs.”
“Participants generally expected inflation to moderate over the course of the year as supply and demand imbalances ease and monetary policy accommodation is removed.”

On a side note, we point out that yields at the long-end exploded higher about 5 minutes before The Minutes were released…

Developing

END

II) USA DATA

Retail sales explode higher but it is all adjusted data

(zerohedge)

US Retail Sales Exploded Higher In January. There’s Just One Thing…

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 08:36 AM

After December’s gravely disappointing drop in retail sales, analysts are convinced January will see all that pent-up demand come flying back and expected a 2.0% MoM jump (despite a collapse in consumer confidence, especially buying attitudes and financial well-being expectations). In fact the analysts under-appreciated the rebound as headline retail sales exploded a stunning 3.8% MoM

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest MoM surge since March 2021’s stimmy-driven surge in spending.

The rebound was mostly driven by a huge jump in non-store retailers (e.g. online, Amazon etc) and in autos…

Non-store retailers saw their second biggest MoM jump in history…

Finally, the Control Group – which is used to calculate GDP – showed a massive 4.8% MoM surge after its 3.1% MoM collapse in December

Source: Bloomberg

Remember, all the retail sales data is nominal, and thus with CPI and PPI soaring near record highs, disseminating the real demand pull from the inflation push is all but impossible in deciding whether the consumer is ‘healthy’ and spending again.

Finally, before we all go celebrating the return of the consumer, it is worth considering the absolutely stunning difference between ‘adjusted’ and non-adjusted retail sales data in January…

While ‘adjusted’ retail sales soared 3.8% MoM, the unadjusted retail sales data for January collapsed by a record 18.5% MoM.

This is the biggest seasonal adjustment on record

END

US Industrial Production Jumps As ‘Cold Winter’ Sparks Biggest Jump In Utility Demand Ever

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 09:23 AM

After an unexpected decline in December, Industrial Production was expected to rebound in January and it did, rising 1.4% MoM (almost triple the 0.5% MoM rise expected).

Source: Bloomberg

The headline beat in Industrial Production was due almost entirely to the cold winter as the increase of 9.9 percent in the output of utilities in January was the largest in the history of the index (since 1972) and reflected strength for both electric utilities and natural gas utilities.

The index for mining rose 1.0 percent. Oil and gas well drilling advanced 6.2 percent; the index in January was nearly 50 percent above its year-earlier level but still about 14 percent below its pre-pandemic reading.

However, on the manufacturing side, growth was relatively flat, rising just 0.2% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Capacity Utilization is back above pre-COVID-Lockdown levels…

So, let’s just hope that it remains frigid for the rest of the quarter!!

Today’s strong economic data brought to you by i) seasonal adjustments, ii) anti-ESG and iii) freezing January

END

This is big!! this will add hugely to next months’ CPI

(MarketWatch)

Import prices jump 2% as biggest increase in 11 years adds to intense U.S. inflation

Feb. 16, 2022 at 11:36 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

The U.S. is experiencing the highest inflation since the early 1980s

The numbers: The cost of imported goods leaped 2% in January — the biggest increase in almost 11 years — and added to the strongest surge in U.S. inflation since the early 1980s.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 1.2% advance.

Higher oil prices led the way, but the increase in prices was broad-based.

Import prices minus fuel rose 1.4% last month — the largest gain since the government began keeping records in 2002.

Over the past year, overall import prices has climbed 10.8%, just a touch below the pandemic peak.

Key details: The cost of imported fuel, food, drinks, autos, consumer goods and industrial supplies all rose in January.

U.S. export prices climbed 2.9% last month. They are up 15.1% in the past year.

Big picture: Inflation is rising in the U.S. and all around the world. Major disruptions tied to the pandemic are a big source of the price pressures, but government stimulus and easy-money policies by central banks have also contributed.

Inflation is expected to slow later in the year as supply-chain bottlenecks unwind, economists say, but prices are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels.

END

Special thanks to Doug C for sending this to us:

When Will the Brutal Spike in Rents Drive Up CPI Inflation? How Much Will it Add to CPI? | Wolf Street

by Wolf Richter • Feb 15, 2022 • 159 Comments

The numbers are already baked in and will show up over the next 24 months.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Two rent factors account for 32% of the Consumer Price Index. Despite the massive spike in “asking rents” across the US, those two CPI rent factors have been much lower than CPI and have thereby repressed CPI so far. Unlike asking rents, these two rent factors track the average rent that tenants are actually paying across the entire stock of rental units in US cities, including in rent-controlled units.

On the other hand, “asking rents” reflect current price tags on units listed for rent that people have not yet rented, and it takes a while for people to rent these units and pay those rents in large enough numbers to where they move the needle of the average rent actually paid across the entire stock of US rental units, which then gets picked up by the CPI rent measures.

But those two CPI rent factors are bound to catch up with asking rents and they will then fuel overall CPI – which was already 7.5% in January, WHOOSH.

But when will the spike in asking rents drive up CPI? And how much will it add to CPI?

The short answer: The current spikes in asking rents that have already occurred through January 2022 will add more than 1 percentage point to overall CPI for the year 2022, and will add more than 1 percentage point to overall CPI in 2023, even if asking rents don’t rise further from here. This is already baked into the numbers. CPI is going to catch up with a painful reality spread over the next two years.

The asking-rent spikes are brutal.

Rents for single-family houses and condos on the rental market exploded by 12% year-over-year in the US, varying widely from city to city, the worst increase in the data which starts in 2004, according to CoreLogic today. Miami was on top of the list, with a 35% spike in rents. In the years between the Financial Crisis and the pandemic, rents of single-family houses in the US had been increasing in the 2.5% to 3.5% range.

Rents in apartment buildings – does not include single-family houses and condos for rent – jumped by 12% for one-bedroom apartments and by 14% for two-bedroom apartments on average across the US, according to Zumper data. In 20 of the 100 largest cities, rents spiked by 20% or more, and in 11 of them, rents spiked by 25% or more. This is based on median asking rents, which are the rents landlords advertise for their listings. They’re similar to price tags in a store.

By a different measure, the Zillow Observed Rent Index, rents in January spiked by 14.9% year-over-year across the US, varying widely among cities.

All these measures show the same thing: On average, rents across the US spiked by over 12% year-over-year, varying widely from city to city, with some cities experiencing astronomical rent increases.

Asking rents take 24 months to spread across CPI rent inflation.

Asking rents are the current price tags. They don’t show up in rent inflation until enough people signed leases for units at those rents, and are actually paying those rents in large enough numbers to move the needle for the entire stock of rental units in US cities.

This makes asking rents a leading indicator for CPI rent inflation. Turns out, according to a study by the San Francisco Fed, these surging asking rents that have already occurred will push up CPI rent inflation for the next 24 months.

The two rent measures in the Consumer Price Index that together account for 32% of the overall CPI show this lag, though they too have started rising. The CPI Rent of Primary Residence (“CPI Rent”) in January was up 3.8% year-over-year, and the CPI Owner’s Equivalent of Rent (“CPI OER”) was up 4.1%.

These two CPI rent measures track what tenants are actually paying in rent across the entire stock of rental units in the cities. This includes tenants in rent-controlled apartments where rents don’t rise sharply, and it includes tenants on still active leases where rents cannot be raised, and it includes tenants whose landlords are slow to raise rents for a variety of reasons, including to keep good tenants.

So, the CPI measures will not spike in the same magnitude as asking rents. Between 2017 and 2019, the CPI measures tracked closely with the Zillow index. But in 2015 and 2016, there were large differences: In January 2015, the Zillow index showed rent increases of 5%, while the CPI measures showed rent increases of 2.6% and 3.5%.

When will these asking rents start fueling overall CPI?

So far, the rent factors in CPI have repressed overall CPI. Overall CPI in January jumped by 7.5%, despite the low readings of the two rent factors – rent of primary residence (3.8%) and owner’s equivalent rent (4.1%).

The San Francisco Fed has now come out with a staff report to estimate when these asking rents would filter into the CPI rent measures, and thereby into overall CPI. And this is going to happen over the next 24 months bit by bit.

The asking rents that have already occurred will likely push up the CPI rent factor by 3.4 percentage points in 2022 and then again in 2023, and given the 32% weight of the rent factors, will add 1.1 percentage points to whatever CPI will be by the end of 2022 and will add 1.1 percentage points to overall CPI in 2023, even if no further rent increases occur in the market.

So any leveling off or even declines in the CPIs for new and used vehicles will pale, because of their much smaller weight, in comparison to the coming surge of the CPI rent factors.

In terms of the measure the Fed uses as inflation target, “core PCE,” whose housing components are smaller than in CPI, the asking rent spikes that have already occurred will add 0.5 percentage points to core PCE in both 2022 and 2023, according to the San Francisco Fed, even if no further rent increases occur in the market.

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the beer and iced-tea mug to find out how:

END

IIb) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATE STORIES

As promised, the Omicron wave is over

(zerohedge)

Is The Omicron Wave Finally Over? US Cases Fall To One-Fifth Of Holiday Peak

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 11:09 AM

As more states abandon their masking mandates (while LA County bizarrely refuses to budge), it’s becoming increasingly clear that – just like last year – the omicron driven COVID wave that started just after Thanksgiving is finally coming to an end.

Let’s take a look at the latest numbers. As more states abandon their mask mandates, California dropped its mandate yesterday, unleashing Bay Area residents from a mask mandate that they have been living with since March of 2020.

“I’m for no mask,” one San Francisco resident, Nichole, told Fox News. “I think no matter what, everybody is going to encounter the virus.”
“We have to start somewhere,” she continued. “We can’t be masked up forever.”

The US is averaging 151,056 new COVID cases per day over the last week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. But while the number of newly reported COVID cases and hospitalizations keep tumbling, more than 2K Americans are still dying every day from COVID. Still, the drop in cases is notable for its speed: cases have dropped 44% from last week. After the latest drop, new COVID cases have plummeted to less than one-fifth of the peak of more than 800K cases per day a month ago. For the first time since Christmas, the US reported fewer than 200K new COVID cases a day on Friday.

COVID hospitalizations are also declining, with 82,842 patients currently hospitalized with COVID, according to data from the US Department of Health and Human Services. That’s a 23% drop from last week.

But as far as the government sees it, the job is unfortunately not yet done: While most Americans, some 64%, have been fully vaccinated, only 28% have received a booster dose, according to CDC data. That’s lower than the rate in Canada.

Over the past week, case rates were highest in Alaska, Kentucky, Mississippi and West Virginia — with each state reporting more than 100 new cases for every 100,000 residents each day. The rates of new cases were lowest in Maryland, New Jersey, Kansas and New York — each reporting less than 25 new cases for every 100,000 residents each day.

end

iii) USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//

5 New Numbers That Prove That America’s Horrifying Inflation Crisis Is Getting Even Worse

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 12:04 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

If you are less than 40 years old, you have never seen inflation like this in the United States. Despite all the warnings, our politicians in Washington just kept borrowing and spending trillions upon trillions of dollars that we did not have. And despite all the warnings, the Federal Reserve just kept pumping trillions of fresh dollars into the financial system. Now we have a giant mess on our hands, and anyone that believes that this is going to be easily fixed is simply being delusional.

Of course most Americans weren’t going to start paying attention to all of this until it started to affect them personally.

Now it is affecting all of us personally, and there are millions of people out there that are becoming increasingly frustrated about the current state of affairs.

Unfortunately, this crisis appears to be just in the early stages. The following are 5 numbers that indicate that the inflation crisis in the United States continues to get even worse…

#1 The producer price index has risen at a rate of 9.7 percent over the previous 12 months. According to CNBC, that is close to a brand new record…

The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services, increased 1% for the month, against the Dow Jones estimate for 0.5%. Over the past 12 months the gauge rose an unadjusted 9.7%, close to a record in data going back to 2010.

Last week we learned that the consumer price index has risen by 7.5 percent over the previous 12 months. Of course if the consumer price index was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, the real number would actually be more than double the official number that we were just given.

#2 Truck trailer prices in January 2022 were 29.6 percent higher than they were in January 2021…

A shortage of parts and labor has sent the prices of truck trailers through the roof.
Truck trailer prices jumped 3.1 percent in January, data from the Department of Labor showed Tuesday. That followed a 3.8 percent increase in December. Compared with 12-months ago, trailer prices are up 29.6 percent, by far the biggest one-year jump in records going back to 1980.

#3 The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is telling us that the price of used vehicles rose by an astounding 40.5 percent from January 2021 to January 2022…

According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, the consumer price index for used cars and trucks jumped up by 40.5% from January 2021 to January 2022. That means within a year, the average price of used cars and trucks for urban consumers has gone up by 40.5%.

#4 You may have noticed that you are paying a lot more at the pump these days. If you can believe it, the price of gasoline has actually shot up 40.8 percent since Joe Biden first entered the White House…

Between January 2021 and January 2022–President Joe Biden’s first year in office–the price of unleaded gasoline increased 40.8 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

#5 The price of lumber has really been surging once again. According to the National Association of Home Builders, this most recent surge has “added more than $18,600 to the price of a newly built home”…

That is adding to the cost of both building a new home and remodeling an older one. The National Association of Home Builders estimated the recent price jump added more than $18,600 to the price of a newly built home. It also added nearly $7,300 to the cost of the average new multifamily home, which translates into households paying $67 a month more to rent a new apartment.

Ouch.

I sure wouldn’t want to be trying to build a new home in this environment.

Pressure has been building on the Federal Reserve to take action, and it is being anticipated that the “geniuses” at the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month…

The hot inflation readings led financial markets to price in a better-than-even chance of a 50 basis points interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month.
Inflation is running well above the U.S. central bank’s 2 percent target. Economists are expecting as many as seven rate hikes this year.

Just recently, a reader sent me an email which pointed out that we shouldn’t have a system where an unelected group of bureaucrats gets together and determines what our interest rates are going to be.

And he is exactly right.

In a free market system, interest rates would be determined by the free market.

But we don’t have a free market system anymore.

In fact, we haven’t had one for a long time.

Of course when it comes to the economy, the guy in the White House is going to get more of the credit or more of the blame for what is going on than anyone else.

And a brand new poll that was just released has Joe Biden’s approval rating sitting at just 34 percent…

The president’s approval rating nationally sits around 40 percent, according to several tracking averages, but a new CIVIQS poll showed it sitting at 34 percent from the 165,786 respondents surveyed.

That is a shockingly bad number, and what should alarm Democrats even more is how bad Biden’s numbers are in the most important swing states…

Swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin all voted narrowly blue in the 2020 election, but the new poll shows their approval of Biden sits in the low 30 percentages.
Arizona has the biggest split with 32 percent approval to 61 percent disapproval. Georgia sits in second with 31 percent approval to 59 percent disapproval; Pennsylvania’s split is 36 percent to 57 percent; Michigan is 33 percent to 59 percent; and Wisconsin has 36 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval of Biden.

Unfortunately, Biden isn’t going to resign no matter how low his numbers go.

That means that we are going to have at least three more years of either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris running the country.

So we shouldn’t expect any dramatic policy shifts from Washington.

And the “geniuses” at the Fed are undoubtedly going to find even more ways to really mess things up. They are the ones that are more responsible than anyone else for getting us into this mess, and now many Americans are desperately hoping that they can get us out of it.

If you are waiting for them to fix the economy, you are going to be waiting a really, really long time.

I have been warning for years that the decisions that were being made would have severe consequences, and now those consequences have started to arrive.

We are on a road to national ruin, and those that are running things are even more blind than those that they are supposed to be leading.

iii) USA economic stories

iv)swamp stories

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

Putin Seeks Diplomatic Solution Amid ‘Partial’ Troop Pullback
President Vladimir Putin said he hopes for a diplomatic solution to tensions with the U.S. and its allies and announced a partial pullback of thousands of troops massed near the Ukrainian border. But he warned that Moscow won’t wait forever for the West to address its demand that Ukraine never join NATO…   https://www.yahoo.com/now/russia-returning-troops-drills-interfax-083343051.html

Putin Sees Basis for Talks After Scholz Meeting: Ukraine Update
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow as Western allies expressed reservations over a Russian statement that it was beginning to pull back troops from the Ukrainian border. Putin told reporters on Tuesday that the talks with Scholz were businesslike, and that U.S. and NATO offers on limits to missile deployments and confidence-building measures could be the basis for further discussions…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/scholz-to-meet-putin-amid-heightened-jitters-ukraine-update

Russian Embassy, UK @RussianEmbassy: Minister Lavrov: The US-launched propaganda campaign on Russian aggression in Ukraine is aimed at encouraging Kiev to sabotage the Minsk Agreements and make devastating attempts to solve the conflict in Donbas by force.

So much for the US intel that Russia had placed troops in attack mode to commence an invasion today! Putin is playing Team Biden/Obama in front of world leaders. Putin is inducing Team Biden to paint themselves as clumsy war mongers.

Why are Teams Biden/Obama/Clinton/GOPe so concerned about Ukraine? It is a hotbed of their corruption. Billions of dollars in US aid to Ukraine are unaccounted for. When Trump talked about Biden’s corruption in Ukraine, the Deep State frenetically sprung into impeachment mode.

Ukraine Donated the Most Cash of Any Country to the Clinton Foundation ($10 million)
See this chart for yourself, published in The Wall Street Journal, about contributions made between 1999 and 2014… “Ukraine became a vast pool of U.S. taxpayer-funded ‘aid’ that poured into that long-corrupt nation and then saw piles of kickbacks returned to powerful and politically connected recipients,” according to a report in DC Clothesline.
    “The far-Left media is still trying to ignore how many times Joe Biden grabbed some of that Ukraine stash for his family but chances are it wasn’t anywhere near what the Clintons did — and all with the blessing of President [Barack] Obama,” the same outlet also claims…
    It’s more than obvious that people who are most connected to Ukraine, Russia and China are the politicians who have been in D.C. for three generations or more, in my view — not the guy who just arrived in the swamp three years ago.
https://web.archive.org/web/20191024164523/https://www.lifezette.com/2019/10/ukraine-cash-clinton-foundation/

Stocks soared, led by Fangs and techs due to expiry schemes, on Putin’s devilish gambit.

Lost in Putin’s crafty pantsing of Team Biden: January PPI soared to 1.0% m/m and 9.7% y/y; 0.5% m/m and 9.1% y/y were consensus. PPI Core jumped to 0.8% m/m and 8.3% y/y; 0.5% m/m and 7.9% m/m were expected. The Fed looks even worse for continuing to do QE while inflation soars.

Bonds tanked on the PPI; the 30-year hit 2.368%; the 10-year hit 2.052%. The dollar, gold, and energy commodities sank.

Putin made his Ukraine announcement just before Europe opened. ESHs soared 65 handles in 35 minutes. ESHs and European stocks then plodded higher until peaking at 7:11 ET. After a moderate retreat, ESHs then traded sideways, in a huge 27-handle range until the range narrowed to 11 handles from 13:18 ET until 14:05. ESHs then moved higher for the last-hour manipulation. However, the spike was only good for 2 handles; ESHs then went inert. The market awaited Biden’s comments on Ukraine.

At 12:30 ET, the WH announced that Biden would speak on Ukraine and Russia at 15:30 ET. The WH: “The United States continues to believe diplomacy and de-escalation are the best path forward but is prepared for every scenario. The President will reiterate that the United States remains open to high-level diplomacy in close coordination with our Allies, building on the multiple diplomatic off-ramps we and our Allies and partners have offered Russia in recent months.”
https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1493639104663363584

An hour later, the WH announced that Biden would not issue new policies on Ukraine-Russia.

Biden said the “US is ready to respond decisively to a Russian attack on Ukraine, which is still very much a possibility… The Russian defense minister reported today that some military units are leaving their positions near Ukraine. That would be good—but we have not yet verified that.” (All those billions wasted on spy satellites and intel for naught?) The Big Guy then said the US is prepared for all eventualities but is ready to engage in diplomacy with Russia. “We should give diplomacy every chance to succeed… Make no mistake, the United States will defend every inch of NATO territory, with the full force of American power” but “I will not send American serviceman to defend Ukraine.” The Big Guy then told Americans to ‘leave Ukraine before it’s too late’.

The Big Guy added: “The American people understand that defending democracy and liberty is never without cost…I will not pretend this will be painless. There could be impact on our energy prices.”
Joe spoke for about 11 minutes and as you would expect, The Big Guy took NO questions.

@AP: U.S. intelligence officials allege a conservative financial website with a significant U.S. readership is amplifying Kremlin propaganda. Officials said Zero Hedge, with 1.2 million Twitter followers, published articles created by Moscow-controlled media…
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-coronavirus-pandemic-health-moscow-media-ff4a56b7b08bcdc6adaf02313a85edd9

Now We’ve Done It: We Pissed Off The CIA – Zero Hedge
For publishing views that challenge the conventional narrative, such as disputing that an invasion of Ukraine is actually “imminent” as the US State Department and its mainstream media conduits repeat day after day, or that the Covid virus was actually created in a Chinese lab… Of course, there is no actual accusation that Zero Hedge works directly with anyone tied to Russia or its intelligence apparatus – as the AP admits “officials did not say whether they thought Zero Hedge knew of any links to spy agencies and did not allege direct links between the website and Russia”…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/now-weve-done-it-we-pissed-cia

Cotton threatens to block DOJ nominees over refusal to defend US Marshals in 2020 Portland Antifa riots – Department of Justice said defending Marshals sued over defense of federal courthouse ‘would not be in the interest of the United States
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tom-cotton-biden-doj-nominees-marshals.amp

@GOPchairwoman: Since Durham’s filing became public on Friday, NBC, ABC, and CBS have not mentioned it once on their morning or evening newscasts. The New York Times has written 13,569 stories about Trump and Russia. The Washington Post: 21,636. How many have they written about Clinton-funded spying of Trump? ZERO.

Ex-DJT advisor Stephen Miller: Biden WH has calculated that Ukraine is the topic they’d most like to discuss: anything to change subject from what Biden’s done to America: crime, drugs, inflation, welfare, energy costs, covid mandates, unvetted refugees, border apocalypse & our nat’l debasement in Afghanistan. (PS – Ukraine is NOT among Americans’ biggest concerns in all polls!)

Biden is slammed for costing military six million man hours to implement his ‘woke agenda’ with workshops on ‘Diversity and Extremism in the Ranks’ instead of ‘countering real threats like China, Russia and Iran’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10514321/Critics-slam-Biden-costing-military-six-million-hours-implement-leftist-social-agenda.html

Politico’s @AndrewDesiderio: Senate-led negotiations over sanctioning Russia fizzled so quickly this week that instead, Vladimir Putin is being confronted only with a sternly worded statement from Senate leadership. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/15/senate-poised-to-settle-for-symbolic-rebuke-as-russia-sanctions-talks-fizzle-00009096

Today is Weird Wednesday, which typically marks the peak expiration manipulation. It is also the day that the US said would mark the start of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. To forecast what the few that can move the stock market will do today is foolhardy. The best indicator of the intentions of the market movers will be SPY February options. On Tuesday, the leading SPY Feb call option was the 450 strike with volume of 54,035. The leading SPY Feb put was the 440 strike with 94,118. SPY closed at 446.10

.The January 6 Pipe Bombs Look Like Another FBI Hoax – Kamala Harris was inside the DNC headquarters at the same time the explosive sat outside the building… That shocking revelation means one of two things: The Secret Service, in a security sweep of the DNC building and exterior grounds prior to her arrival, missed what the FBI insists was a viable explosive device—a scenario that seems deeply unlikely considering the city was in a state of heightened alert… Or, the FBI is lying…
     Which leads us to the woman who “found” the pipe bombs outside the RNC right just before the joint session gaveled in on January 6. Karlin Younger is described in news reports as a “resident” of D.C. or an employee of the Department of Commerce… Younger was a project manager for FirstNet Authority, a public-private partnership between AT&T and first responders to prioritize emergency communications during an attack or disaster. Standing board members for FirstNet include the attorney general and secretary of Homeland Security. Several federal agencies, including the Justice Department, use FirstNet services.  And a few weeks before January 6, FirstNet received its largest-ever commitment from a law enforcement agency, a $92 million contract for FirstNet’s services.  That agency was the FBI…
https://amgreatness.com/2022/02/14/the-january-6-pipe-bombs-look-like-another-fbi-hoax/

Trudeau flashback (Responding to which country he most admires): “You know, there’s a level of admiration I actually have for China because their basic dictatorship…is a flexibility…that I find quite interesting.”  https://twitter.com/MichaelPSenger/status/1493675713089589249

“All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed, they must rely exclusively on force.” – George Orwell

The Fallout from Trudeau’s Declaration of Martial Law Begins: Police Chiefs Begin to Resign in Protest   https://beckernews.com/the-fallout-from-trudeaus-declaration-of-martial-law-begins-police-chiefs-begin-to-resign-in-protest-44145/

The Toronto Sun editorial: Trudeau has gone too far – The Liberal government appeared to be hoping for some sort of Jan. 6 style event… The convoy has been peaceful throughout… Trudeau has called protesters every name in the book even though they are a diverse crowd in every sense of the word. Now he is giving himself extraordinary powers to deal with these protests. One of the most disturbing parts is how they can now dictate that banks freeze people’s accounts without a court order… The only thing that can be said in defence of Trudeau’s invoking of the Emergencies Act is that it was his incompetence that made such an extreme measure necessary. https://bit.ly/34ZzkKM

Psaki pins anti-Asian crime on COVID ‘rhetoric’ after Chinatown slay, reporter cites ‘339%’ spike under Biden https://trib.al/wZKvpfv

END

Let us close out tonight with this offering from Greg Hunter interviewing Bill Holter

Harvey In 2022 Man Will Turn Back to God – Bill Holter

Inbox

In 2022 Man Will Turn Back to God – Bill Holter | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

In 2022 Man Will Turn Back to God – Bill Holter

By Greg Hunter On February 15, 2022 In Market Analysis1 Comment

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Precious metals expert and financial writer Bill Holter predicted at the end of last year that in the first half of 2022, all the false narratives will be exposed. That includes confidence and credibility in the Federal Reserve and, thus, the dollar. The Fed just had a so-called “emergency meeting” on Valentine’s Day because of spiking inflation. The meeting produced no action taken by the Fed. It did nothing. Holter explains, “Maybe we have a month, maybe we have even less than that. If they do nothing, then, basically, they have lost credibility. They have thrown in the towel, and they are telling the markets that they do not have the ability to raise rates. They do not have the ability to tighten, which hyperinflation runs completely rampant. That would be your kickoff to hyper-inflation. . . . 80% of all dollars in existence today have been printed or created over the last two years. . . . That is hyperinflation.”

Holter points out that the huge amounts of debt and vast amounts of currency creation are signs of a fast approaching “global bankruptcy.” Holter contends, “The world is in the process of bankrupting. That’s what you are watching right now. You are watching too much debt. They have to hyperinflate to be able to service the debt. When the debt collapses, what is going to be left? The dollar is the reserve currency of the world, 60% to 70% of central banks all over the world use the dollar as their reserves. So, when you have a global bankruptcy . . . the only two things that cannot bankrupt are an ounce of gold and an ounce of silver, which are proof that labor, capital and equipment have been used to create those. In a world that is bankrupting, do you want to own paper or do you want to own something that is real?”

Holter says things are going to get bad—really bad. It will be unlike anything anyone has seen before in modern history. Holter predicts, “We absolutely are in a global bankruptcy, but that should not be the title of this interview. Your title should be ‘In 2022, Man will Turn Back to God.’ I think things are going to get so bad in the second half of this year that, finally, man will turn back to God. You see this always during bad times. Man turns to God, and I think on a mass scale, you are going to see that later this year.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals broker Bill Holter of JSMineset.com. 2.15.22. (There is much more in the 39 min. interview.)

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

After the Interview:

There is much free information and analysis on JSMineset.com. If you want to become a subscriber to cutting edge original analysis and articles, click here.

If you are interested in buying the “Compendium 4” Holter talked about is at the top of the JSMineset.com.

In 2022 Man Will Turn Back to God – Bill Holter

end

Well that is all for today. I will see you THURSDAY night

douglas cundey	7:09 AM (46 minutes ago)
to Chris, William, Bill, rkirby, me

Greg Hunter via aweber.com	11:33 PM (10 minutes ago)
to Harvey

Milan Sabioncello	11:23 AM (24 minutes ago)
to me

Robert Hryniak	1:06 PM (16 minutes ago)
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Robert Hryniak	9:26 AM (41 minutes ago)
to

Robert Hryniak	4:10 PM (5 minutes ago)
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FEB 16

DONATE

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEB. CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ (0.000 TONNES)

total notices so far: 17,478 contracts for 1,747,800 oz (54.363 tonnes)

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6.Global Issues

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Bullard Lets The Cat Out Of The Bag: The Fed Doesn’t Have The Stomach For An Inflation Fight

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: ‘Trade at settlement’ rigging mechanism is at work in silver futures market

$10,000 Silver: The Market Rigging Game Of The Last 170 Years Is About To End – Silver Doctors

$10,000 Silver: The Market Rigging Game Of The Last 170 Years Is About To End

Chipotle On Brink Of Guacamole Shortage After US Bans Mexican Avocados

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Futures Tread Water Ahead Of FOMC Mintues As Russia Forgets To Invade Ukraine

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

North Korean Authorities Arrest Dance Tutor, Students For Practicing “Capitalist” Dance Moves: Report

3c CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Will Lagarde & The ECB Survive This Inflection Point In Geopolitics?

Central to Eurasia

Out with Brzezinski, in with Putin

The Road Signs

Mackinder’s End

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Hypersonic-Equipped Russian Fighters Land In Syria Ahead Of Mediterranean Drills

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

Are They Finally Admitting Natural Immunity?

Leading From Behind: CDC Hints COVID Mask Mandate Will End ‘Next Week’ Now That States Have Moved First

Breakthrough Research Finds Link Between ‘Long COVID’ And Vagus Nerve Damage

“A Recurring Fountain Of Revenue”: FDA Exec Admits Biden Planning Annual Shots, Including Toddlers

Explosive: Embalmer reveals 93% of cases have deadly clots caused by the COVID vax

Ottawa’s “Freedom Convoy” Protesters Dig In As Canadian Government Suffers ‘Alex Jones’ Moment

Trudeau Will Freeze the Bank Accounts of All Protestors | Armstrong Economics

EXCLUSIVE: Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland’s Grandfather Was a Nazi and She Admires George Soros. It’s No Surprise She’s Labeling Freedom-Loving Canadians Terrorists

EXCLUSIVE: Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland’s Grandfather Was a Nazi and She Admires George Soros. It’s No Surprise She’s Labeling Freedom-Loving Canadians Terrorists

Yesterday Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland, announced crowdfunding for Canadians protesting for freedom will be considered terrorist financing. This comes as no surprise since her grandfather was a highly connected Nazi and she’s close to George Soros.

Michael Every

Rabo: Cliff Edges Don’t Move

7. OIL ISSUES

Nord Stream: The Geopolitics Of Keeping Germany ‘Down’, Russia ‘Out’, & Instability In Ukraine

Oil Tumbles After Iran Nuclear Negotiator Says “We Are Closer Than Ever To An Agreement”

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Stocks, Bonds, & Bitcoin Dump’n’Pump As ‘Meh’-Minutes Reverse Russia-Rout

Stocks, Bond Yields Tumble As Blinken Says ‘No Evidence Of Russian Pullback’

FOMC Minutes Show Fed To Rush Rate-Hikes, Leaves QT Details Up In The Air

US Retail Sales Exploded Higher In January. There’s Just One Thing…

US Industrial Production Jumps As ‘Cold Winter’ Sparks Biggest Jump In Utility Demand Ever

When Will the Brutal Spike in Rents Drive Up CPI Inflation? How Much Will it Add to CPI? | Wolf Street

by Wolf Richter • Feb 15, 2022 • 159 Comments

The numbers are already baked in and will show up over the next 24 months.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The asking-rent spikes are brutal.

Asking rents take 24 months to spread across CPI rent inflation.

When will these asking rents start fueling overall CPI?

Is The Omicron Wave Finally Over? US Cases Fall To One-Fifth Of Holiday Peak

5 New Numbers That Prove That America’s Horrifying Inflation Crisis Is Getting Even Worse

Harvey In 2022 Man Will Turn Back to God – Bill Holter

In 2022 Man Will Turn Back to God – Bill Holter

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