FEB 17

FEB17

· by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment ·Edit

GOLD; UP $29.50 to $1899.30

SILVER: $23.90 UP 31 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1898.50

SILVER: $23.84

Bitcoin: morning price: $43,304 DOWN 965

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $41,028 DOWN 3241

Platinum price: closing UP $29.45 to $1094.95

Palladium price; closing UP $136.25 at $2365.95

END

end

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comex notices//JPMorgan notices filed//comex notices//JPMorgan notices filed 0/0

COMEX//NOTICES:EXCHANGE: COMEX FILED:EXCHANGE: COMEX

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR FEB. CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ (0.000 TONNES)

total notices so far: 17,478 contracts for 1,747,800 oz (54.363 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 1278 : for 6,390,000 oz

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $29.50

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES AT THE GLD:

CLOSING INVENTORY :1019.44 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 31 CENTS:/:

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.402 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY SLV/ TONIGHT: 550.210 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS 4056 CONTRACTS TO 161,024 AND RESTS CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND WITH THIS GIGANTIC GAIN IN OI, IT WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE $0.21 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.21) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 4406 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES .

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 55,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 7.845 MILLION OZ. V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN.

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS -37

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 13 days, total contracts: : 7168 contracts or 35.840 million oz OR 2.756 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (551 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 7168 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 35.840 MILLION OZ

LAST 10 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 35.840 MILLION OZ//

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAR.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4056 WITH OUR CONSIDERABLE $0.21 GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 350 CONTRACTS( 350 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 4.1 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 55,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 7.845, MILLION OZ// .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 4406 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 22.215 MILLION OZ//

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 8637 TO 567,282 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: —430 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $14.60//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED 10.656 CONTRACTS…

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB AT 64.3 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING: 58.385 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $14.60 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 10,656 OI CONTRACTS (33.144 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2019 CONTRACTS:

FOR APRIL 2019 ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL:2019

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 567,282.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,656, WITH 8637 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2019 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,656 CONTRACTS OR 33.144TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2019) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (8637,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 11,088 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 64.30 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 400 OZ//NEW STANDING 58.385 TONNES// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ,4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :

32,287 CONTRACTS OR 3,228,700 oz OR 100.426 TONNES 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2483 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 100.426 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 100.426/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.82% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 145.12 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 100.426 TONNES//INITIAL

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 4056 CONTRACTS TO 161,024 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 4 1/2 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 350 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 350 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 350 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 4093 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 350 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 4406 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 22.080 MILLION OZ,

OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.21 GAIN IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.70 PTS OR 0.06% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 73.87 PTS OR 0.30% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 227.53 or 0.83% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.02% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3379 /Oil DOWN TO 92.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 93.34 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3379. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3347: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER//

A)NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 8637 CONTRACTS AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $14.60 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2019 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2019 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , & FEB. 0 APRIL: 2019 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2019 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED 10,656 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2019 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 8637 CONTRACTS..

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (58.385),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

FEB 2022: 58.385 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $14.60) AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE REGISTERED A STRONG GAIN OF 34.400 TONNES OF TOTAL OI, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (58.385 TONNES)…

WE HAD –430 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10,656 CONTRACTS OR 1,065,600 OZ OR 33.144 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 257,561 /// fair

Confirmed volume yesterday: 149,951 contracts poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB ’22 COMEX GOLD //FEB 17

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil
No of oz served (contracts) today	0 notice(s)00 OZ 0 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	184 contracts 18,400 oz 0.5723 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	17,478 notices 1,747,800 OZ 54.36 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

For today:

No dealer deposit 0

No dealer withdrawal 0

0 customer deposit

total deposit: nil oz

0 customer withdrawal

total withdrawals: nil oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 1292 stand GAINING 4 contracts.

We had 0 contracts served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will stand on this side of the pond looking for gold metal.

The month of March saw a LOSS OF 19 contracts and thus the OI standing is 4244.

April saw a GAIN of 6551 contracts UP to 440,175.

June saw a gain of 839 contracts up to 71,236 contracts

We had 0 notice(s) filed today for 1000 oz FOR THE FEB 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2021. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (17,478) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEB: 1288 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 0 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,876,600 OZ OR 58.385 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of FEB.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:

No of notices filed so far (17,478) x 100 oz+ (1292) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0} x 100 oz} which equals 1,877,100 oz standing OR 58.385 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEB.

We GAINED 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will stand for gold over here

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 58.385 TONNES (HUGE FOR A FEBRUARY DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

157,392.690, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 4.89 TONNES

125,410.592 PLEDGED MANFRA 2.90 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690

288,481,604, oz JPM No 2 8.97 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware: 0..3810 tonne

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold: 1,553,863.297 oz 48.331 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 32,665,081 OZ (1016.02 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,428,326.030 OZ (479.89 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,236,735.572 OZ (536.13 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,682,872.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 487.95 tonnes

END

FEBRUARY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//FEB 17

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	643,829.690 oz JPM CNT
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,170,893.083 oz CNT JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)	0CONTRACT(S) (NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	617 contracts (3,085,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1278 contracts (6,390,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT 592,954.993 oz

ii) Into JPMorgan: 577,938.090 oz

total deposit: 1,170,893.083 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 184.125 million oz/351.065 million =52.44% of comex

ii) Comex withdrawals: 2

a)Out of CNT 21,137.880 oz

b) Our of JPMorgan: 622,691.810 oz

total withdrawal 643,829.690 oz

we had 0 adjustments

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 83.896 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 351.065 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF FEB//2022 OI: 291 CONTRACTS GAINING 11 contracts on the day. We had 0 contracts served upon yesterday.

So we gained 11 contracts or an additional 155,000 oz will stand for silver on this side of the pond.

FOR MARCH WE HAD A LOSS OF 2446 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 56,673 CONTRACTS.

APRIL HAD A 27 GAIN// CONTRACTS RISING TO 267

MAY HAD A GAIN OF 6368 CONTRACTS UP TO 83,817 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz

Comex volumes: 72,531// est. volume today//fair

Comex volume: confirmed YESTERDAY: 66,539 contracts (FAIR)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1278 x 5,000 oz =. 6,390,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB (291) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2021 contract month: 1278 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB (291) – number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates 7,845,000 oz. .

We gained 11 CONTRACTS OR 55,000 ADDITIONAL oz of silver will stand at the comex.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

GLD

FEB 17/WITH GOLD UP $29.50: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP 414.60 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.70 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $27.20 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.60 TONNES//

FEB 4/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.59 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.95//A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.78 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.04 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $10.10//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.15//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.10 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $10.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $10.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN UNBELIEVABLE DEPOSIT OF 27.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.86 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.86 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $29.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.44 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.65//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $19.25/A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.08 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1019.44 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.402 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLIONOZ

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THES LV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV/FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.143 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.218 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.430 MILLION OZ/

FEB 4/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILION OZ

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT539.212 MILLION OZ//

FEB 2/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.411 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS : NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 27/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.311 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ/

.JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.8 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 532.692 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.792 MILLION OZ

JAN 20/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.998 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.792 MILLION OZ

JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 71 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.942 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 525.804 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF 1.11 MILLION OZ AND 1.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.246 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ/.

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 550.210 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James RICKARD

Birch gold….

Gold’s “Tried-And-Tested Insurance Characteristics” Shine Brighter Than Ever; UBS CIO

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 09:50 AM

Via Birch Gold Group

UBS: Gold offers resilience, “tried-and-true insurance characteristics” for investors

Recently, CNBC’s Elliot Smith explored the resilience of gold’s price during the recent weeks of stock market volatility and the surge in Treasury yields. Typically, gold’s price levels are strongly affected by two forces — bond yields, and the dollar index.

Recently, both 10-year Treasury yields and the dollar index rose from multi-month lows. Historically speaking, a rise in Treasury yields has a negative impact on gold’s price. That’s because investors who want a safe haven for their funds generally prefer to receive interest payments. (One of the common complaints about gold as an investment is it doesn’t pay dividends or interest.) That complaint makes less sense in an economic environment where the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond pays a negative after-inflation yield.

The dollar index (DXY) is a different matter. The U.S. dollar index tracks the purchasing power or strength of the dollar against a weighted basket of six other currencies (euro, yen, pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc). When the dollar’s purchasing power declines, it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of gold, and vice versa.

The puzzle Smith is trying to solve is this: How can gold’s price be holding up so well when two of the strongest economic forces are pushing it down?

Market strategists from two different banks offer some clues.

Bank of America strategists reported that investment flows into gold have been steady, despite rising Treasury yields and upticks in the dollar index. Why? According to their report:

There are significant dislocations buried beneath headline inflation, interest rates and currency moves, raising the appeal of holding the yellow metal in a portfolio and supporting our $1,925/oz average gold price forecast for 2022.

UBS, the largest of Swiss banks, offers a different perspective. Their market analysts think gold’s price is supported by “elevated demand for portfolio hedges.”

Note: the word “hedge” gets thrown around a lot by market analysts and investors. Investopedia defines a hedge as “an investment that is made with the intention of reducing the risk of adverse price movements in an asset.” In other words, “Hedging is somewhat analogous to taking out an insurance policy.”

With that in mind, the following analysis from the UBS Chief Investment Office makes more sense. Strategists said that gold’s “tried-and-tested insurance characteristics” had again shined brightly, especially compared to other common portfolio diversifiers, including digital assets such as bitcoin.

(Recently, bitcoin’s price has been more closely correlated with stocks than previously, reducing its effectiveness as a hedge.)

So what’s needed for gold’s price to climb higher? According to Russ Mould, investment director at British stockbroking platform AJ Bell, it wouldn’t take much. Loss of faith in central bank policies to fight inflation would do it (see Argentina, Turkey, Venezuela for examples). Alternatively, a recession could trigger a surge in gold prices:

As the combination of global debts and higher interest rates proves too much and policy makers have to return to cutting borrowing costs and adding to QE (quantitative easing) well before inflation is reined in.

So if the Fed stays behind the curve in the fight against inflation, or surrenders completely and returns to easy-money policies to support the stock market, Mould thinks gold could easily surpass its all-time highs.

The economic benefits of a large gold investment

Forbes’s Christopher Helman asks a specific question: “How can Putin afford war in Ukraine?” The answer: Russia’s $130 billion gold stockpile. (That’s equivalent to about 72 million 1 oz. gold American eagles, the world’s 4th-largest national gold reserve.)

This may seem like a strange way to talk about the benefits of gold investment, but Helman takes us through some very interesting points.

First, Russia has managed to almost completely separate its economy from the U.S. dollar:

Back in 2013 Russia received dollars for 95% of its exports to Brazil, India, South Africa and China. Today, according to the Congressional Research Service, after a decade of de-dollarization just 10% of that trade is in greenbacks.

That means Russia’s economic fate is almost completely divorced from the whims of the Federal Reserve and drops in the dollar’s purchasing power.

On the other side of the ledger, Russia simply hasn’t issued as many IOUs as the U.S. Helman informs us Russia’s total external debt is less than 30% of its GDP. In comparison, the U.S. ratio is over 100%.

Finally, Russia has built its own payment systems that enable international transactions not subject to U.S. sanctions.

This is an interesting case study in the benefits of transitioning away from a dollar-dependent economy to one based on gold. Just like an individual, a nation that avoids dealing in dollars, that builds up a robust gold investment and finds alternative ways of transacting funds has a lot more options – a lot more freedom of action – than those whose wealth waxes and wanes at the whim of the Federal Reserve.

To be clear, we do not condone Russia’s aggressive moves against Ukraine and their threats against former satellite nations in Eastern Europe. However, if Russia was still economically dependent on U.S. dollars, they simply wouldn’t have the freedom to make this (admittedly bad) choice.

U.S. states moving out of dollars, into precious metals

A recent op-ed in the Idaho Statesman pointed out some interesting economic changes in the U.S. A number of states have recently removed sales taxes on precious metals purchases. That makes sense. Most Americans buying gold and silver are doing so in an attempt to prevent inflation from destroying their purchasing power. In a sense, they’ve already paid taxes in the form of lost buying power. To charge them a tax penalty on top of inflation just adds insult to injury.

Even more interestingly, both Ohio and Texas have diversified their public pension funds with gold investments. A number of states, including New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Idaho, are considering legislation that would allow state treasurers to invest in gold and silver as a reserve asset.

Individual states like Idaho might want to invest in gold and silver for the same reasons an American family does:

That’s because the state reserves are principally invested in low-interest debt paper, e.g., U.S. Treasuries, money market funds, corporate debt, repurchase agreements, and other dollar-denominated debt. Idaho’s substantial debt-paper holdings carry both counterparty risk and low nominal yields. With inflation now running at 7% (at least), the real rate of return for Idaho taxpayers is deeply negative, perhaps greater than 5% negative.

The specific Idaho legislation under discussion here requires investment in physical gold and silver rather than the paper equivalent: “The authority is confined to physical gold and silver, directly owned by the state of Idaho, unencumbered, and stored in secure bailment in Idaho or a contiguous state.”

Might we see a larger move by U.S. states to transition away from dollar-based holdings, into reserve assets with intrinsic value? That would be an extremely interesting development. How might the federal government respond to such a move?

This article closes with a rousing call-to-action:

It’s as prudent as ever to provide the Idaho State treasurer with options to hedge against the accelerating inflation that’s been foisted upon savers, wage-earners, retirees and the Gem State itself by short-sighted politicians and central bankers in Washington, D.C… Inflation is the match that threatens to set Idaho’s big pile of negative-yielding debt paper on fire.

This state-based move toward economic independence is an extremely interesting development. This is a story we’ll be watching in the months ahead.

-END-

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

END

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

(COURTESY JAN NIEUWENHUIJS//KOOS JANSEN)

a must read from Jan Nieuwenhuijs…

German Central Bank Doesn’t Rule Out Gold Revaluation

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 02:00 AM

By Jan Nieuwenhuijs of The Gold Observer

The more debt is being accumulated on the balance sheets of European central banks, the more likely they will revalue gold to write off this debt. When I asked the German central bank if they consider this option they replied: “at this stage, we prefer not to speculate about any potential decisions … that might or might not be taken in the future.”

“There is no limit on gold’s price.”

Kenneth Rogoff (2016)

Government debt to GDP levels in many countries are at all-time records and I’m not aware of any politician or economist that has outlined a clear strategy to lower the debt burden. Technically, there are six ways to lower government debt to GDP:

Economic growth
Default
Higher taxes
Austerity
Debt relief
Inflation

I don’t think option one, two, three and four are viable, which leaves debt relief and inflation. Inflation is currently elevated and shifting wealth from savers to debtors. But can inflation stay elevated and solve the debt problem without destabilizing societies? When people on lower incomes can’t make ends meet, they tend to revolt. Social instability leads to political instability, which leads to monetary instability, which leads to more social instability. In many countries, like the United States, we can already observe this doom loop.

Revaluing Gold to Write off Bad Debt

One possible solution is that central banks use unrealized gains of the gold on their balance sheet to write off sovereign bonds, providing debt relief to their governments. And when the unrealized gains aren’t sufficient (spoiler: for many countries the unrealized gains aren’t sufficient) central banks can revalue gold. Let’s have a look at how this works from an accounting perspective.

On the asset side of a central bank’s balance sheet the most important line items are international reserves (consisting of gold, foreign exchange and Special Drawing Rights), domestic government bonds and loans to banks. On the liability side the main items are the monetary base, domestic liabilities (such as an account for the government) and the central banks’ equity.

In double-entry bookkeeping something has to be written off on the liability side if on the asset side governments bonds are written off. What can it be? Of course, a central bank can use its capital (equity), but that’s far too little to cater any relief of substance. (Operating under negative equity could jeopardize a central bank’s credibility.)

Which brings us to gold. Because gold is the only international currency that isn’t issued by a central bank and thus can’t be printed, there is no limit to its price denominated in fiat currencies, which can and are printed. To illustrate, European central banks accumulated most of their gold during Bretton Woods when gold was valued at $35 dollars per troy ounce. At a current gold price of roughly $1800 dollars these central banks have unrealized gains worth hundreds of billions of dollars (denominated in euros on their balance sheet). How can these unrealized gains be used?

When the gold price rises the value of the gold on the asset side of a central bank’s balance sheet increases. At the same time, on the liability side of the balance sheet an equal increase will be recorded in what is referred to as a “revaluation account.” A gold revaluation account, which effectively has no limit, registers the unrealized gains on gold.

An example: the German central bank owns 3,359 tonnes of gold, which was purchased for €8 billion euros. Currently the gold is worth €173 billion euros, creating a gold revaluation account of €165 billion euros (173 – 8).*

While researching this subject I asked the German central bank (the Bundesbank, or “BuBa” in short) if it’s possible to use gold’s revaluation account to write off bad debt. I tend to aim such questions at the Bundesbank because they always respond very quickly. I’m aware that Italy’s government debt is the elephant in the room, but these countries are part of the same monetary union and Germany is the main guarantor of the E.U. Recovery Fund (Next Generation EU). BuBa replied that according to the prevailing accounting rules any unrealized gains in gold can only be used for unrealized losses in gold, not for losses in assets such as U.S. dollars or European bonds. BuBa wrote me:

Gold’s revaluation account – on the balance sheets of European central banks – cannot be used to write off bad assets. According to Art. 15 e) on income recognition of the ECB Guideline on the legal framework for accounting and financial reporting in the ESCB “there shall be no netting of unrealized losses in any one security, or in any currency or in gold holdings against unrealized gains in other securities or currencies or gold”. Please have a look at CL2016O0034EN0010010.0001.3bi_cp 1..1 (europa.eu) for further information.

Case closed? No, because central banks can change the rules at will. Using gold’s revaluation account, for literally anything, has been done before and there is no reason why it can’t be done again. In the 1930s gold was revalued by central banks the world over—countries went off the gold standard and devalued against gold. In 1940 the Dutch government set the new official gold price at ƒ2,009 guilders per Kg. This made the Dutch central bank’s gold revaluation account equal ƒ221 million guilders, of which ƒ30 million guilders were used to cover losses on sterling assets. The rest was used for other purposes. Bear in mind, the Dutch did this because they knew the gold price couldn’t decline below the official price.

So, I asked BuBa why not use gold’s revaluation account and if needed revalue gold? After an unusual long silence, suggesting they carefully thought about what to reply, I received an email. For the sake of accuracy, below is a screenshot of the email with my questions and a screenshot of the email with their response.

They could have just said no, but they didn’t. They replied that, “at this stage, we prefer not to speculate” about changing the accounting rules and revalue gold to write off bad debt. Meaning, they don’t rule out this possibility. Also note, BuBa writes that “in general” the accounting rules are set “by the ECB Governing council in accordance with the limits set by the European Treaties.” Implying that there are exceptions.

Why did BuBa write this to me? Possibly, this was a signal for the market to revalue gold, saving BuBa the hassle of doing it themselves (printing money to buy gold). As a reminder, former Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann wrote in 2018 that gold is “the bedrock of stability for the international monetary system.” A comment that is anything but discouraging investors from buying gold and driving up its price. Weidmann added that gold is a “major anchor underpinning confidence in the intrinsic value of the Bundesbank’s balance sheet.” If gold is underpinning confidence in BuBa’s balance sheet, why wouldn’t it underpin confidence in investors’ balance sheets?

It’s impossible to furnish the Italian government substantial debt relief without revaluing gold. Italy’s government debt is €2.7 trillion euros, of which is €600 billion euros is held by the Italian central bank (Banca D’Italia, or BDI). BDI’s gold revaluation account is currently over €100 billion euros, so the gold price has to be multiplied by approximately five for BDI to be able to write off its domestic government bonds. Though, BDI can also continue to absorb debt, say, an additional €500 billion euros, and then revalue gold times ten.

A New Global Gold Standard

Revaluing gold to write off bad debt would require central banks to set a floor price for gold. If a central bank uses its revaluation account fully, the gold price ideally doesn’t fall back or this central bank will incur unrealized losses. As such, the central bank would need to stabilize the gold price, which is a form of a gold standard.

When it comes to revaluing gold Europe is most likely to take the initiative, as opposed to the United States, because revaluing gold will damage the dollar’s status as world reserve currency: not something the U.S. aspires. Thereby, the euro is the second most liquid currency in the world, enabling the eurozone to revalue gold—by printing euros and buy gold—without devaluing much against other currencies and commodities.

Still, European central banks would face risks in revaluing gold as they can’t know how much gold they must buy, and thus print euros for, at what new price. Although, I think the moment they will start buying, countries outside of Europe will join purchasing gold as they too have a debt problem.

Last but not least, Europe has been preparing a new global gold standard since the 1970s (as I have written about extensively here). Revaluing gold would be a logical step towards a new international monetary system based on gold. It might not be the classic gold standard, but perhaps a system of gold price targeting, allowing countries more easily to devalue their currency if needed. After all, currency devaluations are a fact of life.

By revaluing gold bad debt can be written off and the new price will cause the currency in circulation to be sufficiently backed by gold. A reset offering a new international monetary system.

H/t Sander Boon

*For the exact data on BuBa’s gold revaluation account see their annual report.

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/COFFEE

The huge rise in coffee prices has been provided to you here on several occasions. Now Rabobank warns that coffee prices may soar out of control as stockpiles plunge

(zerohedge)

Rabobank Warns Coffee Prices May ‘Soar Out Of Control’ As Stockpiles Plunge

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 08:00 PM

Goldman’s head commodity strategist and one of the closest-followed analysts on Wall Street told the audience of Bloomberg TV last Monday of commodity markets pricing in shortages.

“I’ve been doing this 30 years and I’ve never seen markets like this,” Currie told Bloomberg in an interview. “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

This leaves us with one particular commodity that most Americans use daily, and it’s not crude products, such as gas and diesel, but, in fact, coffee. Over 150 million daily drinkers might be subjected to prices that may ‘soar out of control,’ according to a new report from analysts at Rabobank, led by Carlos Mera.

In agricultural markets, supply disruptions and lower exports from Central and South American producers have resulted in dwindling stockpiles of arabica beans on the ICE futures exchange. We noted not too long ago that ICE futures exchange hit their lowest level of storage of the bean in two decades. Coffee buyers are panic hoarding as some have switched from arabica to lower-grade robusta.

Mera warned ICE-monitored inventory could plunge to “half a million bags in three months,” and the “fast pace of decertification could lead to uncontrolled prices spikes in the short-term.”

None of this should be surprising for ZeroHedge readers who have been well informed about the coffee troubles developing over the last year. We noted a nightmare of factors, including drought and frost, that have dramatically reduced output potential. There’s also been logistical issues and soaring transportation costs.

Here are a few of our notes on the situation:

Arabica prices on the ICE futures exchanges hit a decade high of $2.59 a pound, and if Mera is correct, prices could be headed much higher.

Supply crunches are showing up on a seasonal basis. Prices have never been higher for this time of year except for 2011.

For the 150 million Americans who are addicted to coffee, read our commodity note from six months ago, “A ‘Cup Of Joe’ Is About To Get A Whole Lot More Expensive,” it was only a matter of time before prices would hyperinflate away.

Rounding back to Goldman’s Currie, everything is becoming a lot more expensive as the Bloomberg Spot Commodity Index powers to new all-time highs. And no wonder President Biden gave certain members of the Federal Reserve the go-ahead to release hawktard statements in the attempt to cool inflation because it’s ripping apart households and damaging the president’s polling numbers.

end

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.3379

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3347

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 73.87 PTS OR 0.30%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 227.53 PTS OR 0.83%

3. Europe stocks ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 95.76/Euro FALLS TO 1.1372-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.224/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 115.03/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 92.01 and Brent: 93.34–

3f Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE CLOSED UP// OFF- SHORE UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.0.262%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 1.86% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.19%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.60: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.62

3k Gold at $1889.60 silver at: 23.72 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 48/100 in roubles/dollar AT 75.64

3m oil into the 92 dollar handle for WTI and 93 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 115.03 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9208– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0473 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.009 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.319 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.62

Futures Slide Following Reports Of Ukraine Shelling

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 08:01 AM

It was a relatively quiet overnight session until just before 11pm ET on Wednesday, when Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency reported that Russian-backed separatists claimed Ukrainian forces had violated cease-fire rules in four places with a message posted on the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR)’s Telegram channel claiming that “the situation on the line of contact has sharply escalated. The enemy is making attempts to unleash active hostilities.” This was followed promptly by the Ukrainian government returning the accusation and pointing the finger at separatists as being behind the shooting. Amid the he fired, she fired confusion, monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which has been observing the situation in eastern Ukraine, recorded numerous shelling incidents along the line of contact in Donbas on Thursday morning, a diplomatic source told Reuters. The breathless reporting was enough to send US equity futures tumbling 30 points in just a few seconds…

… while Treasury yields also collapsed…

… and gold spiked higher

When the smoke had settled – so to speak – U.S. equity futures dropped 15 points or 0.34% to 4455, reversing much of the overnight loss, with Nasdaq and Dow futures down 0.52% and 0.28% respectively, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index was little changed and Asian shares edged up. Energy companies underperformed as crude oil fell. Havens such as the yen and gold pushed higher. Government bond yields retreated and the dollar was steady.

Separately in geopolitcs, Russia’s Foreign Ministry denied a claim by the U.S. and Britain that it’s added as many as 7,000 troops to what President Joe Biden has said are around 150,000 soldiers already near Ukraine’s borders. European Union leaders will discuss the tensions Thursday in Brussels, before Group of Seven foreign ministers meet in Munich on Saturday.

Westpac analyst Sean Callow said markets were “clearly on edge” and vulnerable since a lot of traders had assumed tension was easing. Some investors advised clients not to panic over the geopolitical crisis, however.

“Drawdowns driven by geopolitical stress events are typically short-lived for well-diversified portfolios,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. He added that their base case was a “relaxation of geopolitical tensions”.

The latest gyrations show that “equities markets are still vulnerable to Ukraine-Russia related geopolitical risks,” said Lee Jaesun, an analyst at Hana Financial. Those concerns over Ukraine overshadowed the latest Fed minutes, in which officials concluded they would start raising rates soon and were on alert for persistent inflation that would justify faster tightening. There were few new details on balance-sheet runoff plans.

Investors are also fretting about the imminent rate hikes from the Fed, and expect at least 150 basis points of Fed tightening in 2022 — up from 75 basis points just a few weeks ago — to fight price pressures. The worry is whether the pivot away from pandemic-era stimulus will squeeze economic growth and inject more turbulence across assets.

“The market will continue to be quite volatile until certain questions are clarified — for example, how these rate hikes are going to be laid out going forward,” Marcella Chow, JPMorgan Asset Management

Going back to the market, Nvidia dropped 3.7% in premarket trading after the chipmaker’s latest earnings and forecasts failed to impress everyone, even though beating estimates. By contrast, Cisco Systems Inc. jumped after better-than-expected results. Amazon.com has agreed to accept Visa Inc.’s cards across its global network, settling a feud that threatened to damage the financial giant’s business and disrupt e-commerce payments. Here are some of the other notable premarket movers today:

DoorDash (DASH US) shares jump 24% in U.S. premarket trading after it reported that a record number of people ordered from the food-delivery app in 4Q.
Upstart Holdings was upgraded by two notches at BofA, to buy from underperform, in a move that comes after the cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform’s results. Shares are up 1% premarket.
TripAdvisor (TRIP US) drop 9% in U.S. premarket trading after the company reported results that missed estimates. While 4Q came in below consensus due to omicron and investments in the Viator unit, commentary for 1Q and 2022 was positive, according to Truist Securities.
Marin Software (MRIN US) shares soar 22% in U.S. premarket trading after the marketing software company announced an integration with TikTok.
Albemarle (ALB US) shares dropped 7% in premarket after the lithium company’s gross profit missed Street estimates.
Fastly (FSLY US) shares plunge 29% in U.S. premarket trading after the infrastructure software company forecast revenue for 2022 that missed the average analyst estimate. Piper Sandler and Morgan Stanley both cut their price targets on the stock.
Hyatt Hotels Corp. (H US) fell 6.4% in postmarket trading Wednesday after a the company posted a wider loss per share for the fourth quarter than analysts had expected.
Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE US) climbs 16% premarket after the e-commerce company provided a year revenue forecast that topped estimates.
Trupanion (TRUP US) fell 7.6% in extended trading after the pet medical insurance company reported a quarterly loss that widened from the year-earlier period.
KAR Auction Services (KAR US) jumped 7.6% in postmarket trading, after the vehicle auction company’s fourth-quarter profit and revenue beat the average analyst estimate.
QuantumScape (QS US) sank 5.6% in premarket trading, after the battery-technology company reported a wider-than- expected loss for the fourth quarter.
Informatica (INFA US) declined 5.9% in extended trading on Wednesday, after the application software company gave an outlook for adjusted first- quarter operating profits are dowthat was weaker than expected.

In Europe, the Euro STOXX slipped 0.1% while Britain’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.65%. Strong corporate earnings in Europe helped keep the losses in check. Nestle dropped after warning profitability may decline for a second year and Swedish cloud communications firm Sinch AB fell after reporting weak growth. Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc jumped after forecasting profit margin growth, while Kering SA gained as Gucci sales surged past pre-pandemic levels. Here are the most notable European market movers:

Kering shares jump as much as 7.9%, the most intraday since November 2020, after the French luxury conglomerate reported 4Q sales at its Gucci brand that impressed analysts. Peers LVMH, Hermes and Burberry also rise.
Reckitt rises as much as 5.6%, the most since Oct. 26, after it reported 4Q like-for-like sales that beat the average analyst estimate. The firm finished FY21 “strongly,” powered by its health division, according to Jefferies.
Carrefour climbs as much as 5.3% after the French grocer reported 4Q sales and full-year results that Jefferies said show ongoing progress in French recovery and “impressive” free cash. The broker lifted its price target to EU22 from EU21.75.
Schneider Electric gains as much as 2.7% in Paris after the company reported results and gave FY22 forecasts including organic revenue of +7% to +9%. Liberum highlights a 2% 4Q sales beat and expects both the margin beat and guidance for margin expansion to be taken favorably.
RWE rises as much as 5.6% after the company raised its forecast.
Arcadis surges as much as 9.2%, the most intraday since October 2020, after 4Q results that KBC Securities said beat consensus “on nearly all metrics.”
Sinch slumps as much as 17%, the most since Nov. 2, after the Swedish cloud communications firm posted 4Q earnings which included a miss on adjusted Ebitda and a slowdown in organic revenue growth. Handelsbanken notes weak gross profit growth weighed on results.
Standard Chartered falls as much as 5.1% after reporting full-year results that Shore Capital (buy) described as “disappointing.”
Sodexo drops as much as 6.6% after the French caterer unexpectedly said it’s appointing chairwoman Sophie Bellon as its new CEO, disappointing investors.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities edged up as expectations for easing of pandemic restrictions in some countries fueled a rally in shares tied to economic reopening. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.1% after falling as much as 0.5% on renewed geopolitical concerns. Japanese travel-related stocks jumped ahead of a conference by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida where he is expected to ease virus-related curbs. South Korea’s cosmetic makers advanced on hopes for looser mask rules, while Singapore’s aviation stocks gained on plans to cut travel and social restrictions. EARLIER: Asian Stocks Reverse Early Gains on Fresh Concerns Over Ukraine Reopening stocks were in focus in Hong Kong too after a report that the financial hub plans to mass test the entire city spurred optimism that authorities are laying the groundwork to gradually open the economy. “Investors are looking at the growth story in Asia as countries ease restrictions, especially for inbound travel,” said Margaret Yang, a strategist at DailyFX. “We don’t see much of a cloud ahead of us in this region with the market already pricing in Fed hawkishness to a large extent.” Equity benchmarks in New Zealand and Vietnam were among the biggest gainers in Asia on Thursday. Traders were also weighing the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, which showed officials concluded that they would start raising interest rates soon and were on alert for persistent inflation that would justify a faster pace of tightening. “How the market views Fed’s rate hike trajectory will be cleared up quite a bit in the next two to three months, after which we’d have exhausted the negative side of things,” said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management in Tokyo. Then, “share prices will gradually be back on a recovery trend.”

Japanese equities fell for a third time in four days amid renewed concerns over Russia-Ukraine tensions. Electronics makers and service providers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 0.8%. Recruit and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 0.8% loss in the Nikkei 225. Losses accelerated in the afternoon after Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported Russian-backed separatists had claimed Ukrainian forces violated cease-fire rules overnight in four places, without mention of casualties. Allegations of cease-fire violations from both sides are frequent. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied any plans to invade its neighbor. Positive earnings from Applied Materials have been a reason to buy up electronics-sector shares, “but apart from that, a lot of other sectors will fall on risks of potential conflict in Ukraine,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

Indian stocks fell for a second day, after fluctuating between gains and losses several times through the session, as traders weighed developments around Ukraine as well as prospects for U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 0.2% to 57,892.01 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped 0.1%. Of the 30 shares on the Sensex, 19 dropped and 11 gained. ICICI Bank Ltd. was the biggest drag on the index and fell 1.8%. Thirteen of 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a group of lenders. Activity on the Ukraine-Russia border is a focus of investors’ attention, along with the latest U.S. Fed minutes that showed officials plan to start raising rates soon and are on alert for inflation. “Trading in current scenario is not recommended,” Rahul Sharma, analyst at Equity 99, wrote in a note. “Investors will get many opportunities to buy quality stocks at dips in coming days.” The earnings season for India’s top companies ended Thursday with 28 of the 50 Nifty companies either meeting or exceeding estimates. Nineteen have missed profit estimates, while three can’t be compared.

In rates, Treasuries hold some of the flight-to-quality gains amassed during Asia session after report Russian-backed separatists claimed that Ukrainian forces violated cease-fire rules. Yields lower on the day by 3bp-5bp across most of the curve. 10-year yield hovers around 2%, richer by ~3bp vs Wednesday’s close and outperforming bunds by 2.5bp; gilts trade broadly in line with Treasuries in the sector. Long-end lags on the curve, steepening 5s30s by ~2bp on the day. There is a $9b 30-year TIPS auction is ahead at 1pm ET. The new issue is poised to draw the first positive yield in sales of the tenor since February 2020, following record-low result of -0.292% in the most recent semiannual 30-year TIPS sale in August; current- issue yield is about 0.15%. Yields on Germany’s 10-year government bond , the go-to safe-haven asset in the euro zone, were little changed at 0.267%.

In FX, the dollar was little changed; G-10 currency trading more broadly did not resemble traditional risk-off, with Kiwi and Aussie dollars plus pound outperforming. The yen jumped as Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported Russian-backed separatists’ claims of Ukrainian forces violating cease-fire rules overnight in four places. Yen jumped as much as 0.5% while the Russian ruble fell around 1% to halt a three-day bounce, the worst performer among EMs.

In commodities, crude benchmarks were pressured as we await clarity on reported shelling in Donbas; currently, and WTI Brent remain around USD 1.00/bbl from the overnight trough. The current peaks of USD 93.31/bbl and USD 94.48/bbl in WTI and Brent were set overnight on the initial report via Sputnik of Ukraine firing shells on LPR localities. However, Ukraine has denied this saying Russian forces were responsible; EU leaders to meet later on the subject. Oil has been hurt by the prospect of a resumption in official Iranian exports if diplomatic talks lead to a nuclear accord, but it has also been whipsawed by supply worries stemming from the Russian troop buildup. European natural gas prices increased after two days of declines. China state planner asks some iron ore traders to help verify if there is hoarding or other irregularities; asks some iron ore traders to release high inventories to decent level; will set up market supervision.

Gold prices broke higher to hit an eight-month high of $1,892 an ounce , up 1.2% on the session and helped by nervousness across markets and a weaker dollar.

Bitcoin is under modest pressure, but remains within a USD 43-44k range thus far.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US housing starts and building permits for January, along with the weekly initial jobless claims. From central banks, the ECB will be publishing their Economic Bulletin, and we’ll also hear from the ECB’s Lane, De cos, and the Fed’s Bullard and Mester. Finally, Walmart will be releasing earnings.

Market Highlights

S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,458.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 467.30
MXAP up 0.1% to 190.35
MXAPJ up 0.4% to 627.45
Nikkei down 0.8% to 27,232.87
Topix down 0.8% to 1,931.24
Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 24,792.77
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,468.04
Sensex little changed at 57,984.72
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,296.18
Kospi up 0.5% to 2,744.09
German 10Y yield little changed at 0.26%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.1359
Brent Futures down 1.0% to $93.82/bbl
Brent Futures down 1.0% to $93.82/bbl
Gold spot up 1.1% to $1,891.21
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.15% to 95.85

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Russia’s Foreign Ministry denied a claim by the U.S. and Britain that it’s added as many as 7,000 troops to what President Joe Biden has said are around 150,000 soldiers already near Ukraine’s borders
European natural gas prices jumped after two days of declines as the U.S. rejected Russia’s claims that it was pulling back troops from the border with Ukraine
With precipitous drops in some leading technology stocks and wild swings in the S&P 500, equities have provided plenty of drama this year. But for clues to the direction of the U.S. economy, listen to the $23 trillion U.S. Treasury market. Right now, that market is saying inflation and the potential for a slowdown in growth are both threats

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed as the region trimmed earlier gains on reports of tensions in Ukraine. ASX 200 was propped up by its Healthcare and Mining sectors whilst Telstra and Wesfarmers fell on earnings. Nikkei 225 saw upside capped by manufacturers after Japanese exports missed forecasts, with Nikkei citing slowing overseas demand for cars and global supply constraints. Hang Seng and were non-committal in early trade and the indices swung between gains andShanghai Comp. losses

Top Asian News

Hong Kong Is Said to Plan Testing Entire Population for Covid
Taiwan Sees Xi as Too Focused on Big Reshuffle to Attack Now
Hong Kong Should Mull Delaying Election, Lawmaker Says
Gold Fields Bet on Giant Mine Pays Off After Years of Losses

European bourses remain at the whim of geopolitical developments, performance waned after a firmer cash open (Euro Stoxx 50 Unch.) in-spite of a brief respite on generally constructive corporate updates. As such, are softer across the board (ES -0.5%), moving with the broader risk tone as we await clarity US futures on the shelling in Donbas. Given broader sentiment, sectors are a mixed bag as leads post-earnings from KeringLuxury/Personal Goods and Carrefour while are pressured on benchmark performance given geopols; a dynamic that explainsOil & Gas the -0.6% relative underperformance alongside FX dynamics.

Top European News

In commodities, crude benchmarks are pressured as we await clarity on reported shelling in Donbas; currently, and WTI Brent remain around USD 1.00/bbl from the overnight trough. The current peaks of USD 93.31/bbl and USD 94.48/bbl in WTI and Brent were set overnight on the initial report via Sputnik of Ukraine firing shells on LPR localities. However, Ukraine has denied this saying Russian forces were responsible; EU leaders to meet later on the subject. Russia’s Italian ambassador says that Russian PM Putin has told Italian PM Draghi that they are ready to increase gas supplies to Italy, if required, via Reuters. Spot gold/silver are bid amid the tentative risk-sentiment. Action that spurred spot gold to just shy of USD 1900 /oz, though we are yet to mount a convincing test of the mark. China state planner asks some iron ore traders to help verify if there is hoarding or other irregularities; asks some iron ore traders to release high inventories to decent level; will set up market supervision.

In FX, the Kiwi evades risk-off headwinds amidst constructive Antipodean cross flows in the run up to next week’s RBNZ meeting, as some speculate on an above consensus 50 bp hike. Yen in favour as mortar fire in Eastern Ukraine rekindles fear of military conflict – USD/JPY tests psychological support near 115.00 where options begin and end at 114.90 in line with a key Fib. Rouble rattled by rising tensions and potential further sanctions. Dollar betwixt and between after less hawkish than anticipated FOMC minutes as DXY struggles to keep taps on the 96.00 level Lira was on edge ahead of the CBRT, but ultimately unfazed by unchanged Repo Rate, as Turkish President repeats pledge to lower rates and inflation.

Central banks:

ECB’s de Cos says the policy direction is clear but the ECB should not draw any premature conclusions when it comes to timeframes, with a highly uncertain situation such as tensions in Ukraine, ECB should not provide a further source of uncertainty. PEPP reinvestments should be used flexibly and proactively.
ECB lifts its own provisions for financial risks to maximum, according to the annual report.
CBRT Policy Announcement: Holds rates at 14.00% (exp. 14.00%); says comprehensive review on policy framework being conducted; will continue to use all tools decisively
Turkish President says Turkey will break the shackles of interest rates with the goal to lower inflation to single digits.

In Fixed Income, bonds remain bid, but rangy after overnight surge on safe-haven grounds. Debt still in the grip of geopolitical dynamics as Russia and Ukraine exchange accusations over the shelling in Eastern Ukraine. OATs and absorb French and Spanish supply reasonably well

US Event Calendar

8:30am: Feb. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 218,000, prior 223,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.61m, prior 1.62m
8:30am: Jan. Building Permits MoM, est. -7.2%, prior 9.1%, revised 9.8%; Building Permits, est. 1.75m, prior 1.87m, revised 1.89m
8:30am: Jan. Housing Starts MoM, est. -0.4%, prior 1.4%; Housing Starts, est. 1.7m, prior 1.7m
8:30am: Feb. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 20.0, prior 23.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m looking for a dog psychologist this morning. Our dog Brontë has always taken socks and shorts etc. and buried them in the bushes outside. This is fairly annoying but this past week she has suddenly moved onto far more high value stuff. She’s managed to sneak out of our back door, and bury, one of my wellington boots, a full girl’s school uniform and my wife’s comfy slippers. All have been eventually found buried deep in mud after an extensive search through the bushes by my wife. As long as Brontë doesn’t take my crutches then it’s a curiosity for now but any clues as to what’s she trying to tell us gratefully received.

For most of the day the market was lightly buried under geopolitical risk. However the session was turned around towards the end as the FOMC minutes delivered no surprises which was a relief to many. The S&P 500 managed to creep into positive territory, finishing +0.09% higher, with cyclical stocks leading the way. The index was -0.75% immediately before the release of the minutes. Tech stocks slightly underperformed, with the NASDAQ ending -0.11%.

The minutes showed the Fed had discussed principles that would inform their decisions on QT, but didn’t discuss any of those decisions themselves. They emphasised what the market had already come to expect, that liftoff is all but guaranteed at the next meeting in March, but didn’t provide any insights as to whether liftoff will be +25bps or +50bps. To be fair this was before the 7.5% CPI print last week. Nevertheless markets liked the lack of incremental hawkishness and 2yr treasury yields declined a further -2bps following the minutes, bringing the day’s rally to -5.7bps, as it seemed some were perhaps expecting a more active debate around a potential +50bp hike. In turn, the chance of a +50bp hike priced in STIR markets was reduced marginally, ending the day around 49%.

10yr US Treasury yields ended the day -0.5bps at 2.04%, which led to the 2s10s steepening by +5.2ps to 51.3bps. As it happens, that’s the first time that the 2s10s curve has steepened for two days in a row since the first two trading sessions of the year, which just shows how the picture in 2022 so far has mostly been one of pretty relentless flattening.

The developments actually coincided with strong US data releases yesterday for January, backing up the better-than-expected picture we’d seen from the jobs report. First, retail sales expanded by +3.8% (v.s +2.0% expected) in their fastest monthly gain since last March, whilst the figure excluding autos was up +3.3% (vs. +1.0% expected). Then we also had the industrial production numbers, which grew by +1.4% (vs. +0.5% expected).

We also saw our now regular series of inflation beats come through. The UK CPI release for January came in at a post-1992 high of +5.5% (vs. +5.4% expected), with the number also being above the BoE’s own staff projection of +5.4% in their Monetary Policy Report two weeks ago. Core CPI was similarly a tenth above expectations at +4.4%, having hit a post-1992 high of its own too. Then later in the day we had the same data from Canada, with CPI up to +5.1% (vs. +4.8% expected), having surpassed 5% for the first time since 1991.

Those upside inflation surprises failed to stop sovereign bond yields moving lower in Europe, even as we also had comments from Latvian central bank Governor Kazaks that the ECB was “quite likely” to raise interest rates this year to deal with inflation. Indeed, the earlier risk-off tone actually saw investors dial down their bets on the amount of tightening expected this year by the ECB and the BoE, helping yields on 10yr bunds to fall -3.1bps to 0.27%, as those on 10yr OATs (-2.9bps) and gilts (-5.7bps) fell back too. The biggest declines across DM sovereign yields was in 2yr gilts which fell -12.6bps. Traders pared back bets the BoE would hike by +50bps at the March MPC from a 72% probability on Tuesday to a 54% chance by yesterday’s close, as inflation data, whilst beating, did not deliver the same kind of fireworks as US CPI. It seems there must have been some positioning squaring after the print.

To be fair the European fixed income rally was helped by earlier comments from the US and allies contradicting the assertion that Russia was pulling back troops, with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg saying that it appeared as though Russia was continuing its military build-up, and they had not seen any de-escalation on the ground. He added that this appeared to be the “new normal” for Europe, downplaying hopes of any discrete conclusion to the crisis. Later in the session, those remarks were given further backing by US Secretary of State Blinken in an MSNBC interview, who said “We continue to see critical units more toward the border and not away from the border”.

That more negative rhetoric from officials was reflected in oil prices which traded near recent highs intraday, moving above $95/bbl at one point, before marking a very sharp turn lower in the afternoon, with Brent Crude (-3.32%) closing at $93.28/bbl. European natural gas prices fared better, paring back losses of -9.11% shortly after the open to only close -1.58% lower. The impact was also evident in safe haven assets, with precious metals including gold (+0.87%) and silver (+1.00%) erasing some of the previous day’s declines as well.

Earlier, European equities were relatively subdued, with the STOXX 600 eking out a +0.04% gain, even as a number of the continent’s major indices such as the DAX (-0.28%) and the CAC 40 (-0.21%) lost ground.

This morning Asian markets have put in a mixed performance following the release of those Fed minutes. Mainland Chinese stocks are trading higher with the Shanghai Composite (+0.35%) and CSI (+0.62%) both advancing, and the Kospi was also up +0.43%. However, the Hang Seng (-0.62%) has reversed its early morning gains, and the Nikkei (-0.85%) is trading lower after Japan’s exports grew less than expected due to slowing external demand coupled with global supply constraints. The data showed exports rose +9.6% y/y (vs. +17.1% expected), with the country also recording its biggest monthly trade deficit in eight years. Looking ahead, equity futures are pointing lower in the US and Europe, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.50%) and DAX (-0.67%) both down.

Oil prices also have also been under pressure overnight amidst the prospects of an Iranian nuclear deal being reached, with Brent crude down -1.09% to $93.78/bbl. Meanwhile, USTs extended their retreat with the 10-year yield easing -4.4bps to move back just beneath the 2% mark, at 1.995%.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/COVID/VACCINE DEATHS

Data from England has been very good. Now a group of doctors, HART, are demanding investigation into sudden increases in young male deaths in the UK for the past 8 months

No explanation has been given

(Evans/EpochTimes)

Doctors Group Demands Investigation Into Sudden Increase In Young Male Deaths In UK

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times,

A group of UK doctors, scientists, economists, psychologists, and other academic experts have called for an immediate investigation into the increasing death rate amongst 15- to 19-year-old males.

The organisation HART, set up to share concerns about policy and guidance recommendations relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, has written to the British government over a rise in deaths in young males.

To HART, the concern is that this time period coincides with the rollout of vaccinations to this age group, who are known to be at an increased risk of myocarditis (heart inflammation), especially after the second dose.

Rising Death Rate

As part of a judicial review at the High Court in January, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), confirmed that there had been a rise in the death rate for adolescent males over the last eight months, compared to the same time period of 2015–2019.

But the ONS also said that data could not either be used to draw any reliable conclusions as to a potential correlation between vaccination status and death in children and young adults.

There have been at least 65 extra deaths in England and Wales, though the figure may be higher due to reporting delays for coroners’ cases. During the same time frame, there were only two deaths involving COVID-19.

In September, the JCVI (Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation) declined to recommend that the COVID-19 vaccines be administered to healthy 12- to 15-year-olds as the balance of benefit to risk was only marginal at best in the face of the very low risk to children of serious illness or death from COVID-19 disease. The JCVI’s recommendation for 5- to 11-year-olds has not yet been made public yet, but it is being offered to those who are in a clinical risk group.

The COVID-19 Pfizer/BioNTech Vaccine is currently the preferred vaccine for the under 18s age group in the UK vaccination programme.

Myocarditis

HART spokesperson and diagnostic pathologist Dr. Clare Craig told The Epoch Times:

“We’d obviously had a real issue in 2020 with excess deaths in the old, then it switched to being in the young.”
“The thing about any excess deaths is that, if you are looking for a new cause in 85-year-olds dying, then it would be hard to find in the overall figure of deaths as there are a lot of deaths. If you are looking at younger age groups, it’s much easier as young people don’t die very much,” she said.

She said that it is not suggested that the observed increase in mortality proves that the COVID-19 vaccines are causing death, whether via myocarditis or some other mechanism, but a connection cannot be excluded. This is why they are calling on authorities to investigate.

Craig said that myocarditis, inflammation of the heart, is often dismissed as being a mild problem, but it’s very difficult to diagnose. To do so, medical staff need to do an ECG which traces heartbeats, blood tests, or heart MRI scans (if there is a specialist scanner). The ultimate test, which is done so in exceptional circumstances is a biopsy when a tissue sample is taken.

“It’s not mild, it’s not trivial. you don’t just dismiss that sort of injury,” she said.

But could the increase in deaths be down to something else, such as suicide or drug-taking?

“For a start in young people at that age, men die more than women. That because they take more risks, have a higher suicide risk. That is something that could have caused a difference,” she said.

“The rise that we have seen recently is in registered deaths which could be ones where they have been given a death certificate by a doctor as natural or it could be ones that have been through the coroner’s process and have filtered through, but with a lag. If there were a rise in suicides, that would come through later on,” said Craig.

“Deaths that are of unnatural causes which include a death where a doctor thought vaccination may have been involved would have to be reported to the coroner as with all deaths involving a drug,” she said.

Craig added that despite good public health monitoring in Britain, there is a “glaring hole” where no one is looking at these deaths. But passive surveillance relies on someone suspecting or making a connection.

Backlog

But criticising HART, science writer Tom Chivers in the publication Unherd argued that young people’s deaths are much more likely to be referred to the coroner, and in 2020, coroners’ offices were under enormous strain from the pandemic. He said that the ONS told him that the increase could be a simple backlog from the previous year.

In response, Craig said that if “that is the case, then why is there no backlog in other age groups?”

A government spokesperson told The Epoch Times that the COVID-19 vaccines have been found to be safe and effective by the experts at the MHRA and that it has received a copy of the HART letter and will respond in full in due course.

He added that there has been a small number of reports for myocarditis and pericarditis in individuals under 18 years both in the UK and internationally. This is a recognised potential risk with the COVID-19 Pfizer/BioNTech Vaccine and COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna and the MHRA is closely monitoring these events.

“There is no indication in the current data that there is an increased reporting rate of suspected myocarditis and pericarditis in under 18s compared to young adults,” the government said.

END

AUSTRIA/COVID/VACCINE MANDATE

The forced vaccinaton policy in Austria has had no impact on the rate of the jab uptake

(Watson/SummitNews)

Forced Vaccination Policy In Austria Has No Impact On Jab Uptake

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Austria’s best-selling newspaper says the government’s introduction of a mandatory vaccination policy has had no discernible impact on jab uptake in the nation’s capital and could have even caused a drop-off.

Since the compulsory jab mandate came into force on February 5, Kronen Zeitung reports that the law actually caused a reduction in the number of people being vaccinated.

“There is no mandatory vaccination effect – and if there is, then rather in the other direction,” the newspaper reported.

There was a significant reduction in the number of people getting vaccinated on February 6, one day after the mandate was imposed, a trend that was also noted on February 12.

“All in all, the Austrian instruments relating to measures and vaccination do not result in a well-rounded strategy and have no recognizable goal,” the the office of City Councilor for Health Peter Hacker told Kronen Zeitung. “That is why no run on vaccinations is to be expected in the coming days and weeks.”

While the mandate failed to boost vaccination rates, it did succeed as prompting Canadian trucker-style protests in Austria.

As we highlighted last week, enforcement of the jab mandate is nothing less than draconian.

Citizens are being stopped randomly in the street and pulled over in their vehicles and forced to comply with vaccine status checks by police.

As we previously reported, authorities the Austrian government announced they would hire people to “hunt down vaccine refusers.”

Austrians who don’t get vaccinated face fines of up to €7,200 ($8,000) for non-compliance, and those who refuse to pay would also face a 12 month jail sentence.

Days after imposing a lockdown in November that only applied to the unvaccinated, Austria hit a new COVID case record.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA//UKRAINE/DONBASS

Shelling has begun but it started from the Ukraine side

(zerohedge)

Shelling Has Begun: Rebels And Ukraine Accuse Each Other Of Breaking Ceasefire As Russia Denies Troop Movements

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 07:19 AM

Update (0715ET): As NATO pledges to step up its troop presence around Russia’s borders, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko says his country could host nuclear weapons or even “super nuclear” weapons if it faces any external threats, as tensions soar between NATO and Russia.

* * *

After days of conflicting reports about Russian troop movements from NATO and myriad media sources, the Biden Administration and its incessant warnings about an impending invasion have become the butt of jokes across the Internet…

But finally, on Thursday, after weeks of waiting, the International media reported “heavy fire” in the war-torn Donbass region of Ukraine.

“The situation on the line of contact has sharply escalated. The enemy is making attempts to unleash active hostilities,” a message posted on the official self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic’s Telegram channel read.

However, unfortunately for the US media and its propaganda machine, it was troops aligned with the Ukrainian government who started the firing, according to RT.

Leaders from the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) in the east of Ukraine reported on Thursday that government troops had attacked the outskirts of its territory. According to the DPR, units from Kiev fired at several towns and villages using 82 millimeter mortars, hand grenades, and rifles.

But some western outlets claimed the question of ‘who fired first?’ just isn’t clear: According to Reuters (which is technically headquartered in the UK) the two sides traded accusations of firing across the ceasefire line. But don’t worry – this kind of thing happens all the time, per Reuters:

The details of the incidents could not be independently confirmed, and the initial reports suggested they were on a similar scale to ceasefire violations that have been common throughout the eight year conflict.

RT added that the Ukrainian government-backed troops blew up a Kindergarten in the Lugansk People’s Republic, the other breakaway region, during the exchange,

The Ukrainian Armed Forces subsequently reported that a settlement located near the Lugansk People’s Republic, the other breakaway territory in the region, had been attacked and photographs circulating online purport to show a kindergarten hit by a shell on the side controlled by government forces. Authorities stated that two civilians had been injured, missiles had hit the school, and half the area had lost electricity. The residents were evacuated.

A couple of Ukrainian civilians were reportedly injured in that attack. Again, western media outlets like ABC News reported that it was the Russia separatist forces who had shelled a school in the southeastern village of Stanytsia Luhanska.

Meanwhile, back across the border with Russia, US authorities are again warning that instead of pulling back troops, Russia is adding another 7K. President Vladimir Putin has said the “partial” troop pullback he promised earlier this week would take time,

U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace backed the U.S. assessment. “I think we have seen the opposite of some of the statements, we’ve seen an increase of troops over the last 48 hours, up to 7,000, we’ve seen a bridge constructed from Belarus into Ukraine or near Ukraine,” he told reporters on Thursday in Brussels.

Ukraine also complained about a DDoS attack on government websites that has become another thorn in President Zelenskiy’s side.

The Kremlin has denied the US reports of the latest troop movements, as well as claims that it’s planning anything beyond military exercises. Diplomatic talks between Russia, Ukraine and a handful of European allies (Germany, France and the OSCE): “The statement about 7,000 is just as much a fake as the ones about an attack on Feb. 15-16,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a text message Thursday.

Speaking during his now-daily press briefings, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated warnings about a looming Russian “false flag” attack that Nato and its leaders have been repeating for weeks now (remember, “this is Alex Jones territory”).

Anybody interested in watching can do so below:

There were also reports of the rebel forces downing a Ukrainian drone.

Aked about the school attack, Stoltenberg called it a “big provocation”. The Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said around the same time that it’s “important” for European diplomats to remain in Ukraine.

On the diplomacy front, EU leaders will discuss the Russia tensions Thursday in Brussels, before G-7 foreign ministers meet in Munich on Saturday. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will speak by phone later Thursday. Officials in Moscow have dismissed US warnings of a possible invasion of Ukraine as “hysteria” and propaganda.

end

RUSSIA/USA

Russia expels USA No 2 diplomat from Russia and the uSA vows retaliation. The situation escalates!

(zerohedge)

Russia Expels US #2 Top Diplomat From Country, US Vows Retaliation

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 09:15 AM

Previously on Tuesday with the Russian announcement that it had begun drawing down troops from near the border with Ukraine, the prospect for a diplomatic way out of the crisis looked promising. But as has been the case for the past weeks, the whole ordeal has involved a flood of mixed signals and contradictory headlines, alternating from promises of “dialogue” and de-escalation to quickly being back on a war-footing coupled with threats – a narrative which seems to turn on a dime every hour.

And now on Thursday more escalation as prospects for diplomacy and open dialogue grow dimmer: “Russia has expelled US deputy chief of diplomatic mission Bart Gorman from the country, the US Embassy has said,” Russian state sources are reporting. TASS via Getty Images

The US has vowed that it will respond in kind, and further that the top official still had time remaining on his visa. The embassy further called his being declared ‘persona non grata’ and expelled from the country “unreasonable” and a significant escalation.

“Gorman was the second most important official at the US Embassy in Moscow after the ambassador and a key member of the senior leadership of the embassy,” a spokesman for the US diplomatic mission was cited in regional media as saying. Gorman is responsible for “key aspects of US-Russian relations,” according to embassy information on its website.

At the start of this year the United States expelled dozens of Russian diplomats from Washington. While the move was technical, according to the State Dept. (which cited visa expiration and non-renewals), Moscow charged that the move was part of the ongoing political tit-for-tat.

Meanwhile, Russia has reemphasized on Thursday that there “is no invasion of Ukraine” and that it’s not planning any offensive, according to Interfax.

This also has the US confirmed it has received Russia’s latest response concerning ongoing negotiations of its security proposals

end

Blinken Lays Out Russian False Flag ‘Chemical Attack’ Claims In Dramatic UN Security Council Speech

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 12:45 PM

In a dramatic address to the UN Security Council in New York on Thursday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “I am here today not to start a war but to prevent one.” He referenced “evidence” though without detailing it that Russia is “moving toward an imminent“ (there’s that word again) invasion of Ukraine.

He then called on the Kremlin to “announce today, with no qualification, equivocation or deflection that Russia will not invade Ukraine,” urging futher to “State it clearly, state it plainly to the world and then demonstrate it by sending your troops, your tanks, your planes back to their barracks and hangars, and sending your diplomats to the negotiating table.”

He gave the speech soon on the heels of Biden telling reporters in unprepared remarks that his “sense” is that Russia will invade Ukraine “within the next several days.”

“The information I presented here is validated by what we’ve seen unfolding in plain sight before our eyes for months. And remember that while Russia has repeatedly derided our warnings and alarms as melodrama and nonsense, they’ve been steadily amassing more than 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders as well as the capabilities to conduct a massive military assault. It isn’t just us seeing this. Allies and partners see the same thing,” America’s top diplomat said.

As if anticipating that all the latest White House timeline specific predictions will once again not materialize, Blinken added the key caveat in the UN address: “If Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine, then we will be relieved that Russia changed course and proved our predictions wrong.” He followed with: “We’ll gladly accept any criticism that anyone directs at us.”

“Russia says it’s drawing down those forces,” he said. “We do not see that happening on the ground. Our information indicates clearly that these forces, including ground troops, aircraft, ships, are preparing to launch an attack against Ukraine in the coming days.”

Given the UNSC setting, Blinken specifically claimed that Russia at this point doesn’t just represent a threat to Ukraine, but to “every country in the world”…

“This crisis directly affects every member of this council and every country in the world, because the basic principles that sustain peace and security, principles that were enshrined in the wake of two world wars and the Cold War, are under threat — the principle that one country cannot change the borders of another by force,” Blinken said.

He still held out the possibility for diplomacy, appealing directly to his Russian counter part Sergey Lavrov: “These meetings can pave the way for a summit of key leaders in the context of de-escalation, to reach understandings on our mutual security concerns,” he said.

But possibly the most sensational and dramatic part of Blinken’s speech, was his repeating the recent White House claims that Russia is planning a false flag attack as a pretext for invasion:

“Here’s what the world can expect to see unfold, in fact it’s unfolding right now, today… First, Russia plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack: this could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine, or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian government.”

He specified that this “Russia-manufactured” pretext could come in the form of a “fake or real attack using chemical weapons”.

He described the alarming alleged scenarios:

“It could be a fabricated so-called terrorist bombing inside Russia, the invented discovery of the mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, or a fake – even a real – attack using chemical weapons.”

This false flag narrative had already been previewed by the White House weeks ago, when Jen Psaki said:

“As part of its plans, Russia’s laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating a pretext for invasion. We have information that indicates Russia has already pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false flag operation in eastern Ukraine. The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces.”

And more recently Ned Price was utterly humiliated when he floated the claims before an incredulous press pool, including Associated Press correspondent Matt Lee:

However, we’ve not entered “Alex Jones territory” as Lee hilariously charged, given that as of this latest UNSC address, it’s more like Colin Powell territory.

When pressed for evidence by a journalist immediately after the speech, Biden waved his hand and shrugged off the demand for proof or any level of specific sourcing…

As if anticipating the Iraq War comparisons, Blinken had said in his Thursday speech:

“Some have called into question our information, recalling previous instances where intelligence ultimately did not bear out. But let me be clear: I am here today not to start a war, but to prevent one.”

Meanwhile, Russia’s foreign ministry has again asserted, “No ‘Russian invasion’ into Ukraine the US and its allies have been talking about since autumn has taken place or is planned.”

And interestingly, words like “cherry-picking” intelligence are once again entering the lexicon. Here we go again.

END

This afternoon:

Donetsk reports Ukrainian artillery barrages, impending assault with U.S. landing craft – Global ResearchGlobal Research – Centre for Research on Globalization

Inbox

Ukrainians trying to incite a Russian response.
One imagines that they might be crazy enough to commit real genocide on the people there. And then that will spark a response but not the kind expected.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/donetsk-reports-ukrainian-artillery-barrages-impending-assault-with-u-s-landing-craft/5771031

Cheers
Robert

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE/EMERGENCY ACT/CANADA

Bank Run? Canada’s Top Banks Mysteriously Go Offline

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 09:30 AM

Days after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he would invoke emergency orders to crack down on demonstrators by freezing their bank accounts, five major Canadian banks went offline on Wednesday night, as customers reported their funds were unavailable, according to technology website Bleeping Computer.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), BMO (Bank of Montreal), Scotiabank, TD Bank Canada, and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) were all hit with unexplainable outages on Wednesday evening. Users began reporting issues with banks around 1600-1700 ET, Downdector data showed.

Canadian Twitter users reported they couldn’t access their funds at the ATMs. One user took a photo of an error message at one of RBC’s ATMs that read, “Tap transactions aren’t available for this card.”

In response, RBC tweeted, “We are currently experiencing technical issues with our online and mobile banking, as well as our phone systems.”

“Our experts are investigating and working to get this fixed as quickly as possible, but we have no ETA to provide at this time. We appreciate your patience.”

BMO customers also reported issues. One customer said, “I’m having trouble and money transfer just auto gets rejected for no reason. Not going over my limit, all info is verified correct and receiving bank says no issues on their end.”

There were countless stories of banking customers who experienced trouble accessing their funds yesterday evening. No bank explained the source of the outrage, but essential to note the outage comes, as we said above, days after Trudeau invoked the Emergencies Act.

The power gives the federal government direct access to banks to force any business conducted with Freedom Convoy protesters and affiliates to freeze their bank accounts. Trust in the banking system among depositors is crucial to prevent bank runs. Freezing accounts of people linked to the protests can incite fear.

Google Trends shows Canadians have panic searched “bank run,” first jumped on Tuesday then went parabolic on Wednesday, right around the time the bank outages were reported.

Canadians have panic searched “bank outages Canada,” “bank run Canada,” “bank run definition,” and Canadian bank run” yesterday.

There’s been a lot of speculation about the outages. Some Twitter users have said “banks are faking outages” to minimize bank runs as people lose faith in the banking sector, following Trudeau’s comments earlier in the week.

“Do you think people will keep their money in institutions that now can easily freeze it from them?” one Twitter user said.
One Twitter user wasn’t surprised about what has unfolded: “Government threatens to freeze their money in your bank >> people panic to take their money out of the bank so they can survive >> bank outages >> surprised Pikachu face.”
Some on the fringe said, “Take all your money out of banks. Buy gold silver crypto and ammo.”

Others posted memes about how Bitcoin prevents Trudeau from freezing your money.

Still, nothing conclusive points to what caused the banking outages last night though it just so happens it comes days after Trudeau invoked emergency orders to freeze bank accounts, forcing many folks to panic. The one thing a government cannot do is have citizens lose trust in the banking sector — otherwise, all hell breaks out.

END

special thanks from Robert H for sending this to us:

India’s Ambassador: Trudeau is an Embarrassment to Canada & India

Inbox

When the India’s ambassador calls Trudeau a traitor, we all should listen. If for no other reason than immigrants from India are the largest segment of immigrants in Canada; more so than the Chinese in Canada. If Trudeau has lost that community of support he is not just in trouble as is the Liberal party as they will be voted out in any new election. As it is long time hardened Liberals are departing the party and Trudeau in large numbers.

But even this opinion is not as relevant the actual actions taken by a minority government that only 16% of the population supports, according to the latest polls. The action of what can only be construed as a Tyrannical Prime Minister has damaged Canada’s reputation beyond belief. This country once internationally admired is seen to lack the basic principles of the rule of law and a distaste for the Charter of Rights of its’ inhabitants. Further, it shows a breakdown in governmental unity since the majority of provinces are against it’s action and shows the disrespect the Federal Government has for Provincial leadership opinions or beliefs. This does not bode well for national unity or national solidarity. And this demonstrates a very real disconnect between provinces and the Federal government and demonstrates the lack of mechanisms to prevent such actions in the first place. Democratic populace representation is a delicate affair requiring a true consideration of a majority and not personal governmental figure desire or opinion.

And the powers bestowed upon banks as government agents to execute discriminatory and predatory actions against customers smacks of communism. And it will damage the reputation of Canadian banks as participants on a international stage, by their execution of such authority. Simply, because internationally they will be tainted by participation. Bank actions in one country speak volumes about corporate attitudes in general and create misgivings amongst personal and corporate customers, in other countries. Such actions are potential reputation killers as banks should never be executors of government tyranny against segments of society. Otherwise, the individual loses all personal standing for favor of government discrimination. It is the difference between tyrannically oriented governments and democratic ones and why people flee countries who do such things.

While expected in China or other such countries, it is perhaps why Trudeau has in interviews said he admires the Chinese model. Or why he turns a blind eye to Chinese operatives picking up people or intimidating them in Canada without interference, making a mockery of Canadians believing Canada is safe country to reside in. Is Canada headed to become a Chinese model of governance ? Should we anticipate similar actions from Ottawa regarding protests that would typify China? One imagines time will show more.

The actions taken this week have destroyed Canada’s international ability to speak with moral Authority about any regime discriminating against it citizenry. Why, because it would the pot calling the kettle black. It is a complete defeat for moral foreign policy reducing Canada to be seen as becoming a 3rd world country that condones actions typical in such countries.

Sadly, the actions of Trudeau will have lasting consequences for all Canadians.

India’s Ambassador: Trudeau is an Embarrassment to Canada & India

special thanks to Chris Powell and Milan S for sending the next two commentaries to us:

The U.S. government’s top lies about Covid-19

Inbox

See:

10 COVID-19 ‘Truths’ That Weren’t True

ivermectin and cancer – National Institutes of Health Search Results

Inbox

ivermectin and cancer – National Institutes of Health Search Results

https://search.nih.gov/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&affiliate=nih&query=ivermectin+and+cancer

What Are They Afraid Of?

Inbox

https://brandnewtube.com/watch/what-are-they-afraid-of_1mVFqQ1FkCCNpY7.html

Cheers
Robert

CANADA/CONVOY/EMERGENCY MEASURES ACT

Trudeau is silent when the emergency measures will be debated

(Chartier/EpochTimes)

Trudeau Mum On When Emergency Measures Will Be Debated

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 05:40 PM

By Noe Chartier of the Epoch Times

During the first question period after invoking the Emergencies Act for the first time on Feb. 14, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was asked by the Tories when this extreme measure would be debated in the House of Commons.

“Twenty-four hours in and there are more questions than answers—questions about whether this is justified, questions around if the criteria is met, questions around what this means to Canadians’ rights and freedoms. Parliamentary approval is required in order for the prime minister to use this unprecedented sledgehammer,” said interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen.Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during a media availability about the ongoing protests in Ottawa and blockades at various Canada-U.S. borders, in West Block on Parliament Hill, in Ottawa on Feb. 11, 2022

Opponents of the Emergencies Act’s use, such as civil liberties and constitutional rights groups, say the current situation does not meet the threshold for its implementation, and so debates in the House of Commons could help to flesh out the government’s narrative for invoking it.

“So can the prime minister tell us when will Parliament be debating this? Will it be coming to us on Friday? And does he expect that we will look at it Friday but then rise, take a week off, and not actually deal with this until March?” Bergen said.

Trudeau did not answer directly, saying that before invoking the Act he consulted with his cabinet, his caucus, the premiers, and the opposition leaders.

“The scope of these measures are time-limited and geographically-targeted. They are reasonable and proportionate to the threats they’re meant to address. And they are fully to be compliant with the Charter of Rights and Freedoms to reassure all Canadians that this is the right thing to move forward,” Trudeau said.

Bergen questioned if invoking the Act would instead make things worse, now that the blockades of Coutts in Alberta and the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor, Ont., are cleared.

She also referred to her recent motion calling for a plan to end federal mandates that was defeated by the Liberals and NDP on Feb. 14, asking Trudeau when he would “end the divisive, outdated, and unscientific mandates and restrictions.”

In response, Trudeau accused Tories of playing “crass political games and divide.”

The cross-country movement of protests was started by truck drivers asking for the lifting of COVID-19 vaccination requirement for drivers crossing the U.S.-Canada border. As more supporters joined the movement, many are now asking for an end to all COVID-19 mandates and restrictions. Many protesters are saying they will remain in Ottawa until the government lifts the mandates.

Trudeau has refused to meet with protesters and hear their concerns, while linking them with racism and hatred, a charge the protest organizers deny, saying they are peaceful.

Trudeau invoked the Emergencies Act on Feb. 14 for the first time since it replaced the War Measures Act in 1988.

The government is required to table its declaration in the Parliament within seven days, and a parliamentary committee will oversee the issue while the emergency is in effect, officials speaking on background said at a press conference on Feb. 15.

With emergency powers, the federal government will be able to compel towing companies to help remove the trucks blocking the streets of Ottawa, and also crack down on financing by allowing banks to freeze the accounts of the protesters and supporters. Fines and prison sentences will also be easier to hand out to participants under the Act.

The premiers of Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Quebec are opposed to the federal government’s move to invoke the Act.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec have either ended their vaccine passport programs, or intend to end them in the near future.

end

Canada Freezes Convoy Bank & Crypto Accounts, Threatens Dogs; MSM Journos Dox Donors With Hacked Materials

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 04:11 PM

Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said Thursday that financial institutions have been actively freezing the accounts of people linked to the medical freedom protests in Ottawa, which has left an unknown number of protesters and donors in financial limbo, according to state-owned CBC.

Freeland said that the RCMP and other law enforcement agencies have been gathering intelligence on convoy protesters and their supporters, and have been sharing that information with financial institutions in order to restrict access to both cash and crypto.

“The names of both individuals and entities as well as crypto wallets have been shared by the RCMP with financial institutions and accounts have been frozen and more accounts will be frozen,” she said, referring to crypto exchange accounts.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1494358600080404481&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fcanada-freezes-convoy-bank-and-crypto-accounts-threaten-dogs-msm-journos-dox-donors&sessionId=1af4758a998b053382e5c24332401acc4e863acd&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

As the CBC notes,

The law also allows banks to target for account closure donors to the GoFundMe and the GiveSendGo fundraising campaigns that fuelled this protest. Freeland said she wouldn’t get into the “specifics of whose accounts are being frozen.”

Citing terrorist financing laws, the government has forced crowdfunding websites and payment providers to register with the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC), the government’s financial intelligence unit.

In a final warning to the assembled protesters, Freeland said those who have their big rigs on Ottawa’s streets will see their insurance cancelled and their corporate accounts suspended — a move that could make it difficult for these drivers to ever work again.

“The consequences are real and they will bite,” she said.

Update (1610ET): You know it’s bad when…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1494411940818567171&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fcanada-freezes-convoy-bank-and-crypto-accounts-threaten-dogs-msm-journos-dox-donors&sessionId=1af4758a998b053382e5c24332401acc4e863acd&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

* * *

Meanwhile mainstream outlet reporters are taking a hacked list of donors the GiveSendGo Freedom Convoy fundraiser and have been harassing people who donated as little as $50.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1494377651913441281&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fcanada-freezes-convoy-bank-and-crypto-accounts-threaten-dogs-msm-journos-dox-donors&sessionId=1af4758a998b053382e5c24332401acc4e863acd&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-3&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1494395675554897921&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fcanada-freezes-convoy-bank-and-crypto-accounts-threaten-dogs-msm-journos-dox-donors&sessionId=1af4758a998b053382e5c24332401acc4e863acd&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

Oh, and if you’re arrested in Canada with your dog they’ll consider it ‘relinquished’ after 8 days.

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END

(COURTESY JONATHAN TURLEY)

Trudeau’s Trucker Terrorists: Why The Emergency Powers Endanger The Rights Of All Groups

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 11:11 AM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

For the first time in history, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau invoked the Emergencies Act to crackdown on what he has described as an attack on democracy itself in Canada. While civil libertarians in Canada have condemned the move as threatening core free speech and associational rights in the country, the American media and legal commentators have largely supported Trudeau in the use of these extreme measures. Indeed, I triggered a tsunami of outrage in stating that Canada could have used such powers to cut off donations for the Civil Rights Movement and arrest Martin Luther King today for such protests. Partly this was due to the distortion of my comments on MLK ever being arrested (as opposed to being subject to arrest under this law). However, there was also an objection that there is no equivalency between the truckers and the Civil Rights Movement. Again, that is not the point of the reference: it should not matter if you agree or disagree with the underlying cause. The concern is that the Canadian government could declare such an emergency to crackdown on any group engaging in civil disobedience through blockades or occupation protests. It could even happen to Dr. King today if marchers sought to repeat historic marches in Canada. Without meaningful limits under the law, they could also be unilaterally declared threats to Canadian “sovereignty, security and territorial integrity” by Trudeau for acts of civil disobedience.

With the emergency powers, Trudeau can now prohibit travel, public assemblies, conduct widespread arrests, and block donations for the truckers. This also includes freezing bank accounts and ramping up police surveillance and enforcement.

The Canadian Civil Liberties Association objected:

“The federal government has not met the threshold necessary to invoke the Emergencies Act. This law creates a high and clear standard for good reason: the Act allows government to bypass ordinary democratic processes. This standard has not been met. The Emergencies Act can only be invoked when a situation ‘seriously threatens the ability of the Government of Canada to preserve the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Canada’ & when the situation ‘cannot be effectively dealt with under any other law of Canada.’”

Such voices have been drowned out by media demonizing the truckers as racists or insurrectionists.

As civil libertarians, it is less important what people are saying as their right to say it. That includes people who speak through their financial support or donations. Millions in such donations were blocked by GoFundMe or the Canadian government in this crackdown.

It is often tempting to ignore the implications of such extreme measures by focusing on your disagreement with a given group. To understand the scope of this law you can simply look to how widely revered movements could be treated under the same provisions. For example, the Civil Rights marchers also engaged in civil disobedience in shutting down bridges and occupying spaces. As I stated on Monday,

“Now, when you put all of that together, you’ve extinguished the ability of thousands, perhaps even millions of people to express themselves through a form of civil disobedience. And according to Prime Minister Trudeau’s definition, he could have shut down the Civil Rights Movement. He could have arrested Martin Luther King. He could have arrested any number of figures that we now celebrate today as visionaries.”

On Tuesday, I returned to that same point and noted that Canada could easily use the same law against the marchers and Dr. King today. Trudeau’s government could cut off all funding for the Southern Christian Leadership Conference (SCLC) while arresting figures like Dr. King. I noted that “I thought [the use of the Emergency Act] was quite excessive. This is an act of civil disobedience. That is a standard tactic of groups going back to the civil rights movement and even earlier to block bridges and streets, to do what was referred to as — quote — ‘good trouble.’ By this rationale, they could have cracked down on the Civil Rights Movement. They could have arrested Martin Luther King.”

The “they” is clearly the Canadian government in its use of these emergency powers today — not a reference to arrests in the past in the United States.

As is evident from the entire interview, I was referring to how the Canadian government could use these powers against an array of different groups for similar acts of civil disobedience. I was not saying that Dr. King was never arrested. Of course, he was. I have previously discussed those arrests, including in recent columns (here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here). To critics in our hair-triggered political environment, it did not matter that I have referred to MLK being arrested repeatedly any more than the fact that I was clearly referring to the Canadian government today in making such arrests. The point is that it is not just truckers who can be the targets of such Canadian emergency powers. The sweeping language would allow Trudeau to shutdown a contemporary civil rights movement and a leader like Dr. King as easily as he did the convoy. Yet, even Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joined in.

The second objection, however, is far more interesting. People objected to any analogy of these truckers and their cause to Dr. King and the fight for civil rights.

Brooke Binkowski@brooklynmarie
Turley here is simultaneously conflating human rights advocates such as Martin Luther King with a bunch of assholes shitting up international borders because their disinformation handlers told them to and telling racists that white people get the worst treatment.5:17 PM · Feb 15, 2022·

Of course, I was not saying that the truckers are the like of MLK. I doubt the truckers would say that. Rather, I was comparing forms of civil disobedience. The protection of forms of protest should not depend on whether we support or oppose the underlying message.

People objected to the very notion that the Civil Rights marchers could be viewed as akin to the truckers. But that is the point. The law does not have any distinction. It could be used today against Dr. King just as it was used against the truckers. Indeed, Dr. King was accused of being a communist and a traitor by government officials during the crackdowns and arrests of the period. The Canadian law, however, would allow the federal government to use such claims to freeze funding and order arrests under the Emergencies Act today, including a figure like Dr. King for acts of civil disobedience.

We should be outraged by the use of such measures against either civil rights marchers or the Canadian truckers. As the Canadian Civil Liberties Association correctly noted, there is no limiting principle in Trudeau’s use of these powers. Trudeau simply declared that the convoy “seriously threatens the ability of the Government of Canada to preserve the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Canada” without any substantive support for that finding.

These are sweeping emergency powers that could be used against some of our most celebrated figures and shutdown some of our most revered causes. Under this law, the only thing preventing Trudeau from shutting down movements – even historic movements like the Civil Rights marchers – is his affinity for the cause as opposed to the underlying conduct.

end

Scarry!!

(Watson/SummitNews)

Canada’s Justice Minister Says Trump Supporters Should Worry About Having Their Bank Accounts Frozen

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 02:25 PM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Canada’s Justice Minister David Lametti says Trump supporters who donated money to the Canadian Freedom Convoy should “be worried” about having their bank accounts frozen.

Yes, really.

Lametti made the obscene comment during an interview with CTV after he compared someone financially supporting the truckers to funding a terrorist movement.

“You just compared people who may have donated to this to the same people who maybe are funding a terrorist,” the reporter stated.

“I just want to be clear here, sir. A lot of folks say, ‘Look, I just don’t like your vaccine mandates and I donated to this, now it’s illegal, should I be worried that the bank can freeze my account?’ What’s your answer to that?”

“Well, I think if you are a member of a pro-Trump movement who’s donating hundreds of thousands of dollars and millions of dollars to this kind of thing, they oughta be worried,” responded Lametti.

Earlier this week, the Trudeau regime warned that anyone who supported or donated to the Freedom Convoy protest could have their bank account frozen under an emergency powers law.

“This is about following the money. This is about stopping the financing of these illegal blockades,” Trudeau’s Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said during a press conference on Monday. “We are today serving notice if your truck is being used in these illegal blockades your corporate accounts will be frozen.”

Lametti also threatened the truckers, who are protesting against vaccine mandates, with the loss of their licenses if they continued to participate in the demonstration.

The Canadian government’s demonization of the trucker protest as an extremist movement incited the GiveSendGo hack, which revealed the names of 90,000 people who donated to the Freedom Convoy.

This was then ruthlessly exploited by media outlets like the CBC and the Washington Post, which have spent the last few days identifying and harassing people on the leaked list who donated.

As we highlighted earlier, even far-left Congresswoman Ilhan Omar spoke out against the practice, calling it “unconscionable.”

end

GLOBAL ISSUES//

(Wiggin/DailyReckoning.com)

Three Revolutionary Cycles Converging At Once: Will You Survive The Great Reset?

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Addison Wiggin via DailyReckoning.com,

Our beat here at The Daily Reckoning is money – but a lot of what we write about isn’t directly related to money. It’s really about people.

In our business, we try to think of the relationship we create with you, the actual person who opened this email. Mostly because we’re looking for solutions to complex questions just like you are.

“You can’t write about economics every day or you’ll go crazy,” explained our friend and mentor Bill Bonner one time. “You can’t write about investing every day or your readers will go crazy. You have to write about something that is richer, fuller and actually more important.”

What’s richer, fuller and actually more important is the totality of the human drama, good and bad.

Human relationships… and passion. Those are the subjects that propel us forward.

All great drama is derived from the passions of men (and women) and how they interact with one another. Fear, greed, mob mentality and insanity are just a few of the very interesting human emotions.

The study of economics is essentially an exploration of human passion writ large across history. It’s inexact. It’s frustrating. But it’s endlessly fascinating.

And I love to explore it with the brightest minds I know of…

Much More Than Markets Alone

The Wiggin Sessions is an interview series I’ve been conducting for about two years now.

I’ve spoken with over 70 of the financial world’s sharpest, most independent financial thinkers. People like Bill Bonner, Jim Rickards and George Gilder, to name some. Let’s just say you’re not going to find Jim Cramer on The Wiggin Sessions!

But it’s more than just markets and economics. We explore history, philosophy, science, politics (ugh!), pop culture and how they all interrelate. But it all ultimately comes down to you and your money — how to protect it — and how to grow it.

I’m proud to say The Wiggin Sessions have provided viewers with deep insights and in-depth strategies that take them beyond the “conventional financial wisdom” that just doesn’t work.

It can be a lonely business. Our quest to find you the most powerful insights often takes us out to the far end of the bell curve…

The Land of Fat Tails and Black Swans

Scientists who’ve studied probabilities and plotted them on a chart typically find a bell-curve distribution — in which the most likely events bunch up in the middle of the curve.

But a funny thing happens out at the ends of the curve, where the rare events are registered.

“Scientists have found small bumps and bulges,” explains the aforementioned Bill Bonner. “Things that were not expected to happen very often actually happened more than they thought.”
“‘Hundred-year floods,’ for example, happened every 88 years. ‘One in a million’ shots hit their mark every 700,000 or so. Statisticians refer to these odd bulges on the extremities of bell-shaped curves as ‘fat tails.’ Instead of tailing off as they are supposed to, the rare events seem to swell up where you don’t expect them.”

Our mission is to anticipate these fat-tail events, or what many call “black swan” events — while the mainstream media sit in the middle of the bell curve, where it’s nice and safe.

We could do that too. We’d probably take a lot less grief if we did. But why would you bother with us if we just played it safe like the mainstream?

More Predictable Than You Think

How many mainstream sources anticipated the Great Financial Crisis of 2008? Hint: not many. But Bill Bonner and Jim Rickards did.

How many in the mainstream predicted the 2016 election of Donald Trump or Brexit? Same answer. But Jim Rickards predicted them both.

The thing is fat-tail events may be more predictable than you think. Not perfectly — that’s not possible even with perfect information — but to a reasonable, very helpful degree.

But you need to know how to go about it.

As the highly successful investor and entrepreneur Mark Moss told me in The Wiggin Sessions, about our current situation:

It’s definitely not the world that we’ve left behind. And while all of this seems very random, like this is a black swan event, it’s not. This is actually very predictable. We could tell from history that we knew we would end up here. And when you understand that, it makes it clear where we’re going. And when you understand those things, then you understand how to navigate that with your money. You’ll understand the areas you’ll want to be invested in, and not be invested in.

Will You Survive the Great Reset?

Mark has fixed, flipped and developed over $25 million in real estate, invested in private business, gold mines, oil fields and new technologies. And he’s accomplished all this through three different bear market cycles. So he knows what he’s doing.

Now Mark’s passion is helping others prepare for the “Great Reset” — so they can thrive when most can only hope to survive.

Maybe you’ve heard of the Great Reset. It’s basically Build Back Better on a global scale. Elites would be in charge, transforming society in their technocratic vision. You’d be just a cog in a vast globalist machine.

“If I told you what their plans are for this,” Mark says, “you would think I’m crazy and you’d want to lock me up.”

Sounds scary.

Change is happening fast, more than most people realize. And according to Mark, it’s not just about the pandemic:

Obviously, anybody that’s halfway paying attention understands that tensions are high across the world. There’s talk in the United States about another civil war or a national divorce. We have protests happening in every country of the world. And it’s not because of the pandemic. This is a key piece. Most people think around the world, they’re pushing back on mandates and lockdowns. They are, but before the pandemic, there were 10 countries with over 1 million people each in the streets protesting, so it was already happening. They’re still in the streets protesting, just on a different subject. But the key piece is that the entire world is pushing back. Again, it’s not just a black swan event.

The Three Revolutionary Cycles Converging at Once

What’s going on?

Mark says there are three revolutionary cycles that are converging right now.

Unfortunately, he believes they’ll slaughter the underprepared when they collide.

What are these converging cycles?

Three different cycles are all converging right now. One is what I call PSC, which is political, social and cultural. This is a political cycle, which is part of human nature. Then we have technological cycles and revolutions. Finally we have financial cycles and revolutions.

Mark’s main thesis is that you can’t just consider these cycles in isolation. Most people make that mistake or just don’t have the vision to see the bigger picture. But you need to in order to understand where we’re going:

The reason why it’s important to look at all three of these converging factors is because like any financial indicator, one is not conclusive. You need to look for multiple indicators that are all showing the same thing. Most people just look at financial cycles and say, “Well, we’re at the end of a long-term credit cycle. Interest rates are at zero. What’s going to happen next? Is the dollar going to remain the reserve currency or whatever?” But they’re only looking at one piece of the puzzle. You need to understand the other two pieces to really understand how we got here, where we are now and, most importantly, where we go from here.

That’s what we all want to know — where do we go from here? And when do we leave?

“I’m going to show you that all this change is going to happen in this decade,” Mark warns. “It’s not far off.”

Watch the full discussion below:

SEE ZERO HEDGE FOR THE VIDEO

END

VACCINE IMPACT

Vaccine Impact

Michael Every

on the major topics of the day

Michael Every…

Rabo: Everyone Is Hoping There Is A Masterplan, But There Is None

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 10:30 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

No Oasis; But is There a Masterplan?

Markets took yesterday’s non-committal Fed minutes as relatively dovish. I would say that’s a fair assessment. More worrying is that they were non-committal about what the Fed will do at its March meeting because the Fed has no idea what to do. All its choices are bad. There is no oasis ahead, as markets like to believe. There is no Fed ‘masterplan’ to stop inflation without stopping either the asset-price appreciation we’ve built markets on for decades, or the faux appreciation for the working class we’ve built markets on the backs of for decades, or both.

As my fellow chutzpahnik Philip Marey bewails: “The minutes also noted that a formal framework review would start in 2024 and conclude in 2025. Although the flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) strategy was reaffirmed at the January meeting, it has caused the Fed to fall far behind the curve. Policy rates are at the zero bound and the Fed is still buying assets when GDP growth is 6.9%, CPI inflation is 7.5% and unemployment is 4.0%. Is this rational monetary policy or are the lunatics running the asylum? There is no need to wait until 2024; the Fed’s groupthink has produced another failed strategy that should be terminated immediately.” But let’s not hold our breath: the Fed will continue to swagger arrogantly around as if it knows best, and things will get thrown and broken.

Taken together, this puts me in mind of cheeky British working-class lads done good of yesteryear, Oasis, and their ‘The Masterplan’. Hum along while you fantasize about Goldilocks scenarios and that somehow the Fed knows what it’s done, what it’s doing, and what it will do.

“Take the time to make some sense; Of what you want to say; And cast your words away upon the waves; Sail them home with acquiesce; On a ship of hope today; And as they land upon the shore; Tell them not to fear no more; Say it loud and sing it proud today; And then
Dance if you wanna dance; Please brother take a chance; You know they’re gonna go; Which way they wanna go; All we know is that we don’t know; How it’s gonna be; Please brother let it be; Life on the other hand; Won’t make us understand; We’re all part of a masterplan; Say it loud and sing it proud today
I’m not saying right is wrong; It’s up to us to make; The best of all the things that come our way; ‘Cause everything that’s been has passed; The answer’s in the looking glass; There’s four and twenty million doors; On life’s endless corridor; Say it loud and sing it proud; And they
Will dance if they wanna dance; Please brother take a chance; You know they’re gonna go; Which way they wanna go; All we know is that we don’t know; How it’s gonna be; Please brother let it be; Life on the other hand; Won’t make you understand; We’re all part of a masterplan.”

Likewise, in geopolitics we have market hopes for a ‘no war!’ oasis fading away again, and everyone thinking there is a masterplan – just no agreement which/whose we are seeing.

US Secretary of State Blinken, the heads of NATO, the OSCE, UK Defense Intelligence, Estonian intelligence, and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy all underline they don’t believe the current Russian troop withdrawal is real and is a redeployment nearer Ukraine. They want to know “which way they wanna go; All we know is that we don’t know” – and until then, the threat of invasion remains. The US State Department is setting up a task force on Ukraine to co-ordinate during a crisis and cut across other agencies and bureaus. That doesn’t happen when things are winding down.

Militarily, among information and misinformation, and allegations each is the other, note:

Russian troops in Belarus assembled, then disassembled, a pontoon bridge leading to the Chernobyl restricted area that would allow a rapid tank move towards Kyiv. That’s an odd manoeuvre unless it’s a warning for those Russia knows are watching this by satellite;
Israel, with good relations with Moscow and Kyiv, has reportedly reached out to Russia for help in evacuating its citizens and diplomats from Ukraine, and is publicly preparing for the temporary flight, or even mass emigration, of the 200,000 Ukrainians eligible for its citizenship; and
a senior Central African Republic military officer reportedly says many Russian mercenaries, who have established key footholds across the continent, have recently departed – for Ukraine. In all three cases, “And as they land upon the shore; Tell them not to fear no more”?

Politically, The Kyiv Independent reports the Franco-German masterplan is to “sail them home with acquiesce; On a ship of hope today” and align with Moscow in insisting Kyiv signs the Minsk 2 accords that de facto Finlandize it. Again, no oasis: Ukraine is not willing to. Yet central/eastern EU members now see they can’t rely on French or German security guarantees, which kills off the EU strategic autonomy masterplan. The key question is if the Biden administration holds the same view and is using Paris-Berlin as part of a good/bad cop routine, or if it is taking a Cold War stance at odds with them and Russia.

On which note, Reuters reports the White House will propose a record $770bn US defense budget. Even if that means a real-terms decline, is focused on wages and salaries, and sees a reduction in the size of the US Navy via fewer littoral ships, it suggests a hawkish stance. Indeed, Congress may actually add to it again, rather than subtracting. The macroeconomic impact of this higher spending is negligible for markets: the geopolitical signalling is crucial.

As is US Trade Representative (USTR) Tai criticizing China for not meeting the terms of the US-China Phase One Trade Deal. At the time it was signed we argued it was a win for the US if complied with, but if it wasn’t –and we said I wouldn’t be– it opened the door to more radical US trade action. The USTR’s China WTO compliance report now states the US needs to pursue new, long-term structural trade strategies *outside the WTO where necessary* to deal with China’s “state-led, non-market policies and practices” – you know, the ones Wall Street analysts and US hedge-funds are so wowed by. Only this will “secure a more level playing field for US workers and businesses.” (And allow cheeky working-class boys to find their own oasis.)

What could this mean? It depends on how the US approaches the issue, but it seems “The answer’s in the looking glass.” Higher tariffs: the China competition bill already passed by the House of Representatives and now before the Senate would expand the use of anti-subsidy tariffs to target cross-border subsidies for Chinese companies that invest in offshore production to skirt US duties. Yet the USTR also suggests setting new trade standards, with the EU, to exclude Chinese firms/products; and to make supply chains more resilient and diversified, which implies cajoling Western firms to leave China. More radical solutions such as US industrial policy or capital controls are not mentioned – but they are logical, if not political, endpoints on the intellectual and realpolitik journey underway. “I’m not saying right is wrong; It’s up to us to make; The best of all the things that come our way.”

In short, the Fed is hopelessly stuck; USTR logic is little different to the Trump era’s; so is the US defense budget; and Ukraine is not resolved. Can Wall Street see this masterplan? As the tribute band are named, “No Way, Sis”.

7. OIL ISSUES

Natural gas futures jump as the east coast is set for another freeze

(zerohedge)

NatGas Futures Jump As East Coast Set To Freeze

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 08:40 PM

U.S. natural gas futures have been on a rollercoaster over the last six months, from gas shortages in Europe to cold weather in the U.S. to the latest geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. Futures for March are up for the third day as commodity traders assess new weather models forecasting colder temperatures on the East Coast will increase heating demand.

Futures for March delivery are up nearly 8% to $4.64/MMBtu on Nymex. A blend of geopolitical tensions and the prospect for cold weather on the East Coast has sent March contracts up over 20% since last Friday.

The latest warmth on the East Coast will dissipate by the weekend as average temperatures from Washington, D.C., to New York City will dive below a 30-year trend line. Average temperatures are expected to rebound next week but begin another plunge next Wednesday into March.

Washington, D.C.’s average temperatures will dive this weekend then rebound next week to only dive once more.

The same trend is in play for New York City.

For the Lower 48 as a whole, colder temperatures appear to be ahead through the first week of March.

There’s also a winter storm developing that could track across central and eastern U.S. later today into Thursday.

“This looks to be a rather dynamic storm with the potential for major impacts of several kinds, including heavy snow, significant ice accretion, flooding, severe weather and even a rather broad zone of strong winds,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist La Troy Thornton, adding that the eastern half of the country will be in play for at least one of these threats.

Besides weather models, the U.S. has relied on a Punxsutawney Phil, Pennsylvania’s most famous groundhog, for a guestimate on the seasonal shift from cold to warm. On Feb. 2, the giant rodent made his annual weather prediction as he saw his “shadow,” which means six more weeks of winter.

America might be the only country that relies on a rodent for weather predictions.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

END

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1372 DOWN .0007 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL MIXED

USA/ YEN 115.03 DOWN 0.354 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3623 UP 0.0042

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 2.70 PTS OR 0.06%

Hang Sang CLOSED UP 73.87 PTS OR 0.30%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.02% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 73.87 PTS OR 0.30%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.70 PTS OR 0.06%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.02%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 227.53 PTS OR 0.83%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1886.10

silver:$23.65-

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 95.76 UP 6 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.10% DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.224% UP 0 AND 3/10 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.19%// DOWN 0 in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.85 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 66 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.237% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.61% AND NOW ABOVE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1368 DOWN .0005 or 5 basis points

USA/Japan: 114.98 DOWN 0.403 OR YEN UP 40 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3625 UP 44 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP 7 pts to 1.2690

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED )..UP 6.3384

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.3339

TURKISH LIRA: 13.59 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.224

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 8 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.964% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.285 DOWN 6 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.80 UP 10 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 75.41 PTS OR 0.42%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 121.41 points or 0.79%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 25.17PTS OR 0.36%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 79.10PTS OR 0.91%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 318.70 PTS OR 1.18%

WTI Oil price 91.73 12: EST

Brent Oil: 93.16 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE FALLS: 75.26 THE CROSS HIGHER BY 115 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 115 BASIS PTS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.237

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1362 DOWN .0011 OR 11 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3620 UP .0039 or 39 basis pt

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 114.91 down .481

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2703 DOWN .0007 (cdn dollar UP 7 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 91.59

Brent: 93.06

USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.973 DOWN 7 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.310 DOWN 4 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.58

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE: 76.38 UP 122 BASIS PTS (ROUBLE DOWN 122 PTS)

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE DOWN 629.09 PTS OR 1.78%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 431.90 PTS OR 2.96%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 27.54 PTS 3.25 OR 13.46%

GLD: $177.25 UP $2.39 OR 1.37%

SLV: $22.03 UP $.16 OR .73%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Bullard & Blinken Bloviation Batters Big-Tech & Bitcoin

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 04:01 PM

A renewal of old concerns – geopolitical issues, economic growth – sparked a significant risk-off stance today in the markets.

In addition to the chaotic geopolitical headline hockey from the US-Ukraine-Russia storm, the US economy may be slowing (jobless claims data jumped awkwardly higher, Philly Fed disappointed, and Housing Starts tumbled), just as The Fed’s Jim Bullard reiterated his uber-hawkish by calling for the rest of The Fed to come to his dark side or “risk the credibility of The Fed” itself.

Russia is establishing a pretext to invade Ukraine, according to comments by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the UN Security Council.

“This could be a violent event that Russia will bring on Ukraine, or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian government.
“Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing or a genocide making a mockery of a concept that we in this chamber did not take lightly,” he added.
“We believe these targets include Russia’s capital (or) Ukraine’s capital Kiev, a city of 2.8 million people,” he said.

Bullard said that Core PCE – The Fed’s favorite inflation measure – “does not have the reputation of coming down naturally.”

“So we’re way on one side of the ship and I think we have to re-center. I want to re-center faster than some of my colleagues,” Bullard said.
“I think there is actually widespread agreement across financial markets” that the Fed should “get going,” Bullard said.
Bullard said he wants the Fed to start to shrink its $9 trillion balance sheet in the second quarter, adding that the Fed should have a “plan B” to sell some of the longer-term bonds from its portfolio to push longer-term interest rates higher.

The reaction to all this was risk-off – big-tech stocks leading the charge lower (along with crypto) as bonds and bullion were bid as safe-havens.

Interestingly, as Bullard bloviated and stocks slumped, the market’s expectations for Fed hikes actually slipped a little lower (dovish) – perhaps as investors believe Pavlovian-ly that the further we fall the closer we get to the Powell Put. The market sees only a 39% chance of a 50bps hike in March…

Source: Bloomberg

…and now sees only 6 rate-hikes by the end of the year…

Source: Bloomberg

The problem is – the market is now already pricing in a rate-cut for next year!!

Source: Bloomberg

This was the worst day of the year for stocks

Stocks were clubbed like a baby seal on the back of all this with Small Caps and Big-Tech leading the plunge (Nasdaq down 3%)…The majors closed on the lows of the day.

Taking all the majors into the red for the week…

…and pushing stocks back down near the late-Jan lows (only about 2% off those YTD intraday lows)…NOTE that the closing low was considerably higher than those lows.

The so-called “Bubble” markets were monkey-hammered today with ARKK really suffering…

Source: Bloomberg

HY Credit made new cycle high spreads today

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were bid with yields down across the entire curve, as the belly outperformed (7Y -8bps, 2Y & 30Y -4-5bps). The moves were a big bid on reports of shelling in Ukraine, limp back to unch as both sides argued. Then another dump on Biden and Blinken comments, then a lift for the long-end as Bullard unleashed his inner hawk…

Source: Bloomberg

On the week, 30Y is up around 7bps while 2Y is down 2bps, belly flat.

The 10Y Yield dropped back below 2.00% today, erasing most of the Bullard-driven spike from last week…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar slipped back to the low end of its recent range, below pre-Fed levels…

Source: Bloomberg

The Ruble was sold, but not aggressively so…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold soared back above $1900 for first time since June 2021…

But Bitcoin was dumped as gold bid…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin’s relationship with global markets has been strengthening despite being touted by many as an uncorrelated hedge against turmoil…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil tumbled today as Iran nuke talks deal optimism trumped Russia-Ukraine pessimism (with April WTI hovering around $90)…

Finally, for all the pain individual stocks have felt so far – even before The Fed actually begins to tighten policy – it is a nothingburger compared to the record levels of excessive valuation that remains in the market…

As Bloomberg’s Ven Ram noted, the Warren Buffett indicator – Total stock market capitalization divided by GDP – suggests that the recent frenzy that drove stock valuations to astronomical highs is yet to deflate fully.

I) /MORNING TRADING/

Crude Jumps, Stocks Dump As US Envoy Says “Invasion Imminent” (Again)

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 08:17 AM

Here we go again…

After a roller-coaster overnight session, driven by headlines about various attacks in Ukraine, US envoy to UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, told reporters (and anyone who’ll listen) that “Russia is moving towards imminent invasion,” adding that “this is a crucial moment.”

Raising the rhetoric threat further, SecState Blinken is due to deliver remarks on Russia’s threat to peace and security at a UN Security Council meeting at 10amET.

Haven’t we heard that before?

Reaction was immediate with stock exposure being derisked…

And the geopolitical risk premium pricing back into crude…

Will it even matter if anyone denies?

END

AFTERNOON

Gold Tops $1900, Stocks Slump As Bullard And Blinken ‘Double Whammy’ Fuels Fear

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 12:25 PM

Things have escalated a little this morning as Nasdaq is now testing the lows of the day, as investors de-risk on the heels of Blinken’s ‘Russia threat’ rhetoric and Bullard’s ‘rate-hikes and asset sales’ ranting.

Russia is establishing a pretext to invade Ukraine, according to comments by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the UN Security Council.

“This could be a violent event that Russia will bring on Ukraine, or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian government.
“Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing or a genocide making a mockery of a concept that we in this chamber did not take lightly,” he added.
“We believe these targets include Russia’s capital (or) Ukraine’s capital Kiev, a city of 2.8 million people,” he said.

Bullard said that Core PCE – The Fed’s favorite inflation measure – “does not have the reputation of coming down naturally.”

“So we’re way on one side of the ship and I think we have to re-center. I want to re-center faster than some of my colleagues,” Bullard said.
“I think there is actually widespread agreement across financial markets” that the Fed should “get going,” Bullard said.
Bullard said he wants the Fed to start to shrink its $9 trillion balance sheet in the second quarter, adding that the Fed should have a “plan B” to sell some of the longer-term bonds from its portfolio to push longer-term interest rates higher.

This move has taken the Dow into the red for the week and the S&P to unchanged…

And at the same time, safe-havens are bid with yields falling on longer-dated bonds and gold pushing back above $1900 for the first time since June 2021…

At the same time, bitcoin has been hit hard very recently as gold jumped – but both are higher as geopolitical pressure rises…

The Ruble is down but steady. Does The Fed really want to crash the markets after all?

END

II) USA DATA

Higher mortgage rates are certainly having an effect on housing starts

(zerohedge)

Housing Starts Tumble In January, Building Permits Hit 16-Year-High

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 08:38 AM

After December’s huge spike in building permits (up a revised higher 9.8% MoM), analysts expect some catch-down in January (-7.2% MoM exp) and a reversion in housing starts from a 1.4% MoM rise in December to a 0.4% MoM drop in January; as homebuilder sentiment faded and homebuyer attitudes remain near record lows.

Reality was very mixed, with housing starts tumbling 4.1% MoM (biggest drop since July) but permits actually rose 0.7% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the highest level for building permits since May 2006…

Source: Bloomberg

Single-family starts dropped 5.6% MoM from 1.182MM to 1.116MM SAAR, while multi-family starts dropped only 2.1% MoM from 521K to 510K SAAR

Single-family permits rose 6.8% MoM to 1.205MM SAAR (the highest since Jan 2021), but multi-family permits tumbled 8.8% MoM to 628K SAAR (still the third highest SAAR on record).

How much longer can this last given soaring mortgage rates? A recent survey showed a record-low 25% of Americans said now is a good time to purchase a house.

No question about it: the Fed driven housing mania has sent the average homebuyer loan size to record highs

(zerohedge)

Fed-Driven Housing Mania Sends Average Homebuyer Loan Size To Record High

THURSDAY, FEB 17, 2022 – 05:45 AM

A new report by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) caught our eye by highlighting an unfortunate reality of low-interest rates: while they initially make homebuying affordable for middle- and working-class Americans, cheap money flooding into the market for an extended period will cause housing affordability issues as home prices soar.

Data from MBA shows that’s happening as home price appreciation since the beginning of the virus pandemic has been due to low-interest rates and tight housing inventory, creating some of the fastest home price growth spurts in decades. Many homebuyers chased prices in fierce bidding wars, as they took on the largest average purchase loan sizes on record.

“Prospective buyers still face elevated sales prices in addition to higher mortgage rates. The heavier mix of conventional applications again contributed to another record average loan size at $453,000,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist.

In a separate report, CoreLogic shows home prices climbed across the country as demand outstripped supply. In December, prices nationally jumped 18.5% year over year, one of the fastest increases in years. The housing boom is at an infection as buyers take on too much debt, many are priced out of markets, and others are forced to rent because of affordability issues.

When it comes to first-time homebuyers, the National Association of Realtors said their mortgage payments in the fourth quarter jumped to 25.6% of their household incomes, the highest in three years and up 3.2 percentage points from the same quarter last year. Homebuyers generally follow the 28/36 rule, a personal finance guide that limits how much money should go to housing costs and monthly debt payments, shouldn’t exceed 28% of a household’s monthly pre-tax income and 36% of total debt; this is also known as the debt-to-income ratio. The increase in debt service payments was mainly due to homebuyers purchasing homes at record high prices and locking in mortgage rates at higher levels.

As average mortgage debt size swells to most on record and housing affordability becomes a significant issue, the Federal Reserve is well aware the housing market is in a bubble. St.Louis Fed president Jim Bullard went full hawktard last week after the Biden White House appears to have greenlit The Fed to crash the economy:

FED’S BULLARD FAVORS 100 BPS INTEREST-RATE INCREASES BY JULY 1
BULLARD FAVORS FIRST HALF-POINT U.S. RATE INCREASE SINCE 2000

Bullard’s hawkish statements come as mortgage rates topped 4.23% on Wednesday and have experienced the most significant multi-month increase since the taper tantrum days of 2013.

Today’s inflationary environment is very different than 2013. Inflation is a four-decade high as the Fed has little wiggle room to fold, which could mean, unlike 2013, housing prices may experience a correction. However, a silver lining for prospective homebuyers as the Fed embarks on an aggressive rate hike cycle is that institutional investors (who’ve dominated real estate markets for years) will have funding challenges as the short end of the yield curve rapidly rises in sync with interest rates. A correction in home prices and the possibility of diminished demand from institutional investors could finally give first-time homebuyers a fighting chance at a good deal.

Now rounding back to all those folks who took out record mortgage debt and chased home prices to record highs, well, if history serves, it took people from the Dot Com boom at least a decade to break even.

END

IIb) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATE STORIES

end

iii) USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//

Housing affordability is getting crushed as costlier loans push the American dream out of reach for first time buyers

(zerohedge)

‘Housing Affordability Is Getting Crushed’: Costlier Loans Push ‘American Dream’ Out of Reach For First-Time Buyers

WEDNESDAY, FEB 16, 2022 – 07:20 PM

As consumer-goods inflation has continued to surprise economists and shoppers alike with its ferocity, increasingly costly mortgages are putting first-time home buyers at a worsening disadvantage, and placing the ‘American Dream’ of owning one’s home even further out of reach.

Bidding have already driven home prices to unprecedented highs, but growing demand for loans has sent mortgage rates to levels unseen in years. The cost for a 30-year loan has just hit a two-year high, having risen 20% since Christmas, Bloomberg reports.

While those who already own homes have the advantage of benefiting from rising prices in their previous home, allowing them to more easily trade up, first-time buyers must make do with rising prices and rising mortgage rates.

Costs for 30-year loans hit a more than two-year high of 3.69% last week, rising about 20% just since Christmas. Further increases are expected as the Federal Reserve, trying to curb inflation, hikes its benchmark rate. That’s a daunting prospect for entry-level buyers when affordability is already at its worst since 2018.

And as we reported earlier this month, first-time buyers are already seeing their finances stretched thin as those who have managed to buy have seen the percentage of their incomes spent on mortgage payments jump to about 25.6%, according to the NAR. That’s the highest in three years.Source: Bloomberg

As Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics and a widely quoted voice on Wall Street, put it: “Housing affordability is set to get crushed.”

“Housing affordability is set to get crushed,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, who expects 30-year rates to climb above 4% this year.
“Many potential first-time homebuyers will get locked out of homeownership, at least until house prices come back to earth or mortgage rates turn back down,” he said. “Neither seems likely, at least not soon, and certainly not in time for the critical spring homebuying season.”

Anecdotes about the housing market quoted by Bloomberg, WSJ and the rest of the financial press continue to depict a market where homes are snapped up within days or even hours with offers far above the asking price. As one New Jersey woman told Bloomberg: “I’m screwed…I’ll be renting for the rest of my life.”

Cassie Homan, a single Philadelphia renter in her 40s, scours listings websites every day, searching for a modest place in the New Jersey suburbs to be closer to family. She’s on a month-to-month lease to stay flexible. But in her budget of under $200,000, homes go fast unless there’s something seriously wrong.
She recently inquired about a remodeled two-bedroom house built in 1855 with an asking price of $140,000. But it was gone before she could see it, attracting three cash offers within two days. She considered another house only to discover that the seller was passing off the attic as a bedroom. A third property — listed without any photos — was off-limits to tours because a tenant was living there.
Homan said she hopes rising rates cause a downturn in prices, opening up more inventory. Short of that, “I’m screwed — I have no chance in hell,” she said. “I’ll have to rent for the rest of my life.”

Rising mortgage rates are also a problem because they make sellers less willing to part with their current lower-rate mortgages.

While the current state of the housing market heading into the Spring – typically the hottest season for sales – is less than ideal for families and single people looking for a home, corporate landlords and larger investors have an advantage.

Sherry Bailey, an agent in Atlanta, said her buyers are constantly losing out to big landlords paying cash.
Bailey is working with a young woman with a government job and a budget of under $200,000 who has been forced to look in North Georgia mountain towns, an hour and a half outside Atlanta. Still, in the time it takes the client to discuss possibilities with her mom, competitors swoop down, Bailey said.
“The spring market hasn’t even started,” she said, “and buyers are already discouraged.”

Keep in mind, Atlanta has seen one of the largest increases in the share of homes bought by investors.

Of course, home buyers aren’t the only ones being squeezed by rising costs: renters are also feeling the pressure: new data from CoreLogic show that rental prices rents for single-family homes soared to an all-time high at the end of 2021. Like Bloomberg said, renting a home is even costlier than buying one.

No matter which corner of the market one looks in, it seems there is no respite from rising housing costs.

end

iii) USA economic stories

.Fed Bullard says there is too much focus on the notion that inflation will dissipate

Feb. 17, 2022 at 12:19 p.m. ET

MarketWatchSt. Louis Fed president dismisses worries about recessionSt. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Thursday there has been too much “mindshare” devoted to the idea that inflation will moderate at some point.”Overall, I would say there’s been too much emphasis and too much mindshare devoted to the idea that inflation will dissipate at some point in the future,” Bullard said, during a town hall at Columbia University.”There are arguments to be made for that. I think that’s a possibility…but I think that’s actually a minority position,” Bullard said.Instead, the St. Louis president said the Fed needed to “manage the risk” that inflation does not dissipate.The core rate of the Fed’s favorite inflation measure — the personal consumption expenditure price index — has risen to a 4.9% annual rate in December.Bullard said this rate “does not have the reputation of coming down naturally.””So we’re way on one side of the ship and I think we have to re-center. I want to re-center faster than some of my colleagues,” Bullard said.Bullard has called for faster interest rate hikes this year than his colleagues.He said he wants the Fed to increase its policy rate by 1% by July 1 over the next three policy meetings.Bullard said these first moves “are relatively cheap,” in other words the moves are already priced-in, he said.”I think there is actually widespread agreement across financial markets” that the Fed should “get going,” Bullard said.The Fed’s policy rate has been at zero since the pandemic. So these rate hikes are not actually “tightening,” but going away from the ultra-easy level, he stressed.Fed officials view a 2% federal funds rate as the level that their policy rate that does not boost or dampen economic growth.As a result, people who warn that the Fed rate hikes will cause a recession need to “slow down,” Bullard said.”We’re just talking about getting off the very lowest policy rate setting,” he said. “I don’t think there’s much risk of recession coming strictly from that,” he said.Bullard said he wants the Fed to start to shrink its $9 trillion balance sheet in the second quarter.At first there should be a natural runoff of maturing securities, Bullard said. But if inflation is stubbornly high, the Fed should have a “plan B” to sell some of the longer-term bonds from its portfolio to push longer- term interest rates higher.-END-

iv)swamp stories

But will anyone be held to account?

https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-02-16-dni-ratcliffe-special-counsel-durham-obama-biden-knew-about-clinton-plot-entrap-trump.html

BOMBSHELL: Former DNI Ratcliffe says special counsel Durham is aware Obama, Biden KNEW about Clinton campaign plot to entrap Trump in fake Russia scandal

Wednesday, February 16, 2022 by: JD Heyes
Tags: barack obama, corruption, Crimes, criminals, deep state, democrats, Donald Trump, FBI, Hillary Clinton, investigation, James Comey, Joe Biden, John Brennan, John Durham, john ratcliffe, Plot, rigged, Russiagate, scheme, traitors, treason, Trump Tower, White House

5,070VIEWS

Image: BOMBSHELL: Former DNI Ratcliffe says special counsel Durham is aware Obama, Biden KNEW about Clinton campaign plot to entrap Trump in fake Russia scandal

(Natural News) Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe dropped legitimate bombshells on Monday during a Fox News interview pertaining to special counsel John Durham’s ongoing probe into the origins of the “Russiagate” counterintelligence operation against then-GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, and if true, there is literally no reason why a former president and current president should not be wearing prison stripes.

According to Ratcliffe, former President Barack Obama, then-Vice President Joe Biden, and others in Obama’s national security and intelligence sphere were aware of the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign’s efforts to “infiltrate” internet servers at Trump Tower and then at the White House after Donald Trump beat her. And what’s more, it’s a plot that Clinton herself ordered.

In addition, according to the Daily Mail, Ratcliffe said Durham — empowered as a special counsel by then-Attorney General Bill Barr towards the end of Trump’s term — has found enough evidence to “indict multiple people.”

The outlet notes:

Ratcliffe said former CIA Director John Brennan told Obama, the then-president, and Vice President at the time Biden in 2016 about allegations Clinton was trying to fabricate Trump’s links to Russia to distract from the scandal over her deleted emails.

The former DNI also told Fox News Digital on Monday there is ‘enough evidence’ to indict ‘multiple people’ in Special Counsel John Durham’s probe into the origins of the Russia investigation into ex-President Donald Trump.

Ratcliffe’s revelations follow a shocking court filing by Durham late last week indicating that Clinton’s campaign paid a firm to “infiltrate” servers at Trump Tower, and then the Trump White House, in a bid to create a phony ‘Russian collusion’ scandal while he was in office.

“Clinton allegedly approved in the 2016 election ‘a plan concerning U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump and Russian hackers hampering U.S. elections as a means of distracting the public from her use of a private email server,’ according to a CIA Counterintelligence Operational Lead (CIOL) first revealed when a heavily-redacted version became declassified in October 2020,” The Daily Mail reported.

“The September 2016 memo was forwarded from the CIA to the FBI to the attention of then-FBI Director James Comey and then-Deputy Assistant Director of Counterintelligence Peter Strzok – the ‘FBI lover’ who had a relationship with Lisa Page,” the outlet added.

Ratcliffe discussed those findings and others in an interview with Fox News.

“What did John Brennan tell President Obama in the Oval Office in 2016?” anchor Bill Hemmer asked.

“He briefed President Obama and Vice President Biden and other members of the national security team about this specific intelligence that John Durham now has about a Hillary Clinton plan to falsely accuse and vilify Donald Trump with a scandal, and the discussion around that and whether or not it was good intelligence,” the former DNI, Texas congressman and U.S. attorney responded.

“And so everything that happened after that is one of the reasons that John Durham is investigating,” he continued.

“Those are the issues that John Durham is looking at and I think there will be many more,” Ratcliffe added before dropping a bomb: “I would expect there to be quite a few more indictments because of that. There wasn’t a proper predicate to begin that investigation and John Durham has said that publicly already.”

Trump himself has also responded to these new revelations, indicating that, once again, he has been proven right about past allegations he has made.

“The latest pleading from Special Counsel John Durham provides indisputable evidence that my campaign and presidency were spied on by operatives paid by the Hillary Clinton Campaign in an effort to develop a completely fabricated connection to Russia,” he said.

“This is a scandal far greater in scope and magnitude than Watergate and those who were involved in and knew about this spying operation should be subject to criminal prosecution.”

“In a stronger period of time in our country, this crime would have been punishable by death,” Trump continued. “In addition, reparations should be paid to those in our country who have been damaged by this.”

Trump added: “I was proven right about the spying, and I will be proven right about 2020!”

Democrats have weaponized every aspect of our government, and if they’re not held accountable, it’s all going to collapse out of a lack of trust from we the people.

end

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

Russia Mocks US, Requests ‘Full List of Ukraine Invasion Dates’ For Year Ahead
The Russian Foreign Ministry has called on Western media outlets to publish a full list of dates on which Russia will invade Ukraine for the year ahead, so Russian diplomats can schedule their vacations accordingly… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russia-mocks-us-requests-full-list-ukraine-invasion-dates-year-ahead

NATO says Russia adding troops to Ukraine border, after Moscow claimed military units leaving
https://justthenews.com/government/diplomacy/nato-says-russia-adding-troops-ukraine-border-after-russia-said-military-units

Blinken says US has seen ‘no meaningful pullback’ of Russian forces from the Ukraine border
“On the contrary, we continue to see forces, especially forces that would be in the vanguard of any renewed aggression against Ukraine, continuing to be at the border, to mass at the border,” Blinken said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”…
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/16/politics/blinken-russian-troops-ukraine-border/index.html

@nytimes: Tuesday’s cyberattack on Ukraine’s defense ministry, army and banks was the largest of its kind in the country’s history, a Ukrainian official said. And the head of the cyber security department of Ukraine’s intelligence agency said Russia was to blame. https://t.co/sYp3JuIiO7

US January Retail Sales jumped 3.8% m/m; 2% was consensus. But December was revised to -2.5% from -1.9%. Once again, we see a negative revision to US economic data under Biden’s regime. The spending surge was due to the second largest January seasonal adjustment in history. Ex-the seasonal adjustment, January Retail Sales plunged 18.5% m/m. Analysts note that the sales rebound was due mainly to a surge in non-store (online) sales, which increased 14.5% vs -11.4% in December, and a 5.7% increase in vehicle and parts sales.

U.S. Retail Sales Rise Most in 10 Months in Broad-Based Rebound (Charts & tables at link)
https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/u-s-retail-sales-rise-most-in-10-months-defying-omicron-woes

Retail Surge Masks Cooler Discretionary Sales – BBG
Only a partial rebound from previous months’ sharp declines in discretionary categories such as electronic and clothing, as well as falling sales of sporting goods, hint at a broader slowdown in consumer spending as the year progresses, particularly if energy inflation accelerates…
Higher inflation has pushed retail sales in nominal terms well above the pre-pandemic trend. After taking inflation – and product shortages – into account, real spending has followed a shallower trajectory after the stimulus-fueled surge in early 2021…

@BP_Rising: While retail sales increased, consumer sentiment declined. So, purchases are mainly due to fear of higher prices. Belief in inflation helps creates it. However, deficit in economic morale leads to eventual asset deflation as artificial credit booms implode. (Charts at link)
https://twitter.com/BP_Rising/status/1493998738284625923

Kashkari: Unlikely to Return to 2% Inflation Target by Yearend – BBG 11:35 ET
Kashkari: Will Likely Be Well on way to 2% Inflation by Yearend – BBG 11: 36 ET
Fed’s Kashkari: Inflation should be ‘well on its way’ back down toward Fed’s 2% target by the end of the year – DJ 11:42 ET

Philadelphia Fed President Harker said it will take a “couple of years” to get back to the 2% inflation target about 30 minutes before Kashkari’s typical dovish utterances.

WaPo’s @rachsieg: Fed January meeting minutes: “Many participants” viewed labor market conditions as already at or very close to maximum employment, citing low levels of unemployment rates, elevated wage pressures, near-record levels of job openings & quits, worker shortages. But “a couple” of participants said we weren’t there yet, nothing that even for prime-age workers, labor force participation rates were still lower than from before the pandemic, or “that a reallocation of labor across sectors could lead to higher levels of employment over time.” “Various participants cited other developments that had the potential to place additional upward pressure on inflation, including real wage growth in excess of productivity growth and increases in prices for housing services.”

Fed officials concluded that inflation was running too high as the economy closed in on full employment, warranting a hike in the benchmark interest rate soon
“Most participants noted that, if inflation does not move down as they expect, it would be appropriate for the Committee to remove policy accommodation at a faster pace than they currently anticipate,” minutes of the Jan. 25-26 Federal Open Market Committee meeting said… https://t.co/f70iQvltdD

The odds of a 50bp rate hike at the March 16 meeting dropped to ~44%. ESHs, stocks, and gold surged higher. The dollar sank. ESHs soared from 4423.75 to 4476 (54.25 points) in 30 minutes. Sellers then pushed ESHs 20 handles lower in 16 minutes. When the final hour arrived manipulators twice forced ESHs higher before sellers took control with 20 minutes remaining. The rally was aided and abetted by Weird Wednesday upward manipulation for expiration pressure.

US Democratic Senator Cardin: We’re Thinking about Passing Emergency Legislation to Deal with Inflation (We’re going to order inflation to cease and desist!) 12:21 ET

5 New Numbers That Prove That America’s Horrifying Inflation Crisis Is Getting Even Worse
#1 The producer price index has risen at a rate of 9.7 percent over the previous 12 months…
#2 Truck trailer prices in January 2022 were 29.6 percent higher than they were in January 2021…
#3 The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is telling us that the price of used vehicles rose by an astounding 40.5 percent from January 2021 to January 2022…
#4 The price of gasoline has actually shot up 40.8% since Joe Biden first entered the White House…
#5 The price of lumber has really been surging… According to the National Association of Home Builders, this most recent surge has “added more than $18,600 to the price of a newly built home”…
https://themostimportantnews.com/archives/5-new-numbers-that-prove-that-americas-horrifying-inflation-crisis-is-getting-even-worse

US Industrial Production jumped 1.4% m/m (0.5% consensus) in January due to a 9.9% surge in utility output due to frigid weather in most of the USA that month. This is inflationary and a further drain on consumers’ checkbooks. Manufacturing production rose 0.2% m/m as expected.

FDA Executive Officer: ‘Biden Wants Annual Forced Shots,’ Will ‘Fountain Revenue’

FDA Executive Officer, Christopher Cole: “You’ll have to get an annual shot [COVID vaccine]. I mean, it hasn’t been formally announced yet ‘cause they don’t want to, like, rile everyone up.”
Cole on President Joe Biden: “Biden wants to inoculate as many people as possible.”
Cole on plans to approve vaccine for toddlers: “They’re not going to not approve [emergency use authorization for children five years old or less].”
Cole on pharmaceutical companies: “There’s a money incentive for Pfizer and the drug companies to promote additional vaccinations.”
Cole on the financial incentive for pharmaceutical companies: “It’ll be recurring fountain of revenue. It might not be that much initially, but it’ll be recurring…”
FDA Official Statement: “The person purportedly in the video does not work on vaccine matters and does not represent the views of the FDA.” https://t.co/yDb0EFyjEK

Reuters 2/4/22: Pfizer Inc said on Friday it had withdrawn an application for emergency-use authorisation of its COVID-19 vaccine in India, after failing to meet the drug regulator’s demand for a local safety and immunogenicity study… https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-pfizer/pfizer-drops-india-vaccine-application-after-regulator-seeks-local-trial-idUSKBN2A50GE

Biden’s Education Secretary Steps on Rake with Tweet About Student
Cardona, the cabinet secretary in the middle of multiple controversies including caving to union pressure to keep students out of school for months too long and then still in masks when they were allowed to return to in-person learning tweeted that he loves teaching because of “The smile on a student’s face.”
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/spencerbrown/2022/02/16/biden-education-secretarys-tweet-about-smiling-students-bombs-n2603377?s=02

The world’s most important oil price — Dated Brent — just smashed through $100 a barrel with every sign it’s going to push higher https://t.co/S5znPH63yt

Biden administration is keeping a close eye on private equity and other alternative investments
(Socialists and communists always eventually come for their monied sponsors!) https://t.co/FwKlzZsECq

Blackstone expands further into rental housing in the United States.
The private equity firm said it would acquire Preferred Apartment Communities, a real estate investment trust, for $6 billion as it seeks a hedge against inflation
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/16/business/blackstone-real-estate-acquisition.html?smid=tw-share

U.S. Govt Advisors SHRED Documents Detailing Fauci Agency’s Obama-Era Work With The Wuhan Lab… Members of the Republican House Committee on Oversight and Reform wrote a letter to Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Director Xavier Becerra urging the release of the documents, which could prove highly relevant to the origins of COVID-19. “Rather than be transparent with Committee Republicans, HHS and NIH have chosen to hide, obfuscate, and shield the truth,” argues the letter. The letter reveals that an NIH advisor was “forced by NIH to shred notes and other documents pertaining to the WIV grants as early as 2014.” An email from an individual, whose name has been redacted, to a committee staff member on November 5th, 2021 revealed the following:
“I signed a confidentiality agreement in which I agreed not to discuss any grant with anyone except with other members of the study section, and – once the meeting was over – that I would destroy any notes that I had taken during the meeting (we did this by tossing them in shred box in the meeting room)… https://thenationalpulse.com/2022/02/16/nih-refuses-to-comply-with-congressional-doc-request/

@RepAndyBiggsAZ: Who would have thought the cure to COVID would be the mid-term elections.

Today – The key questions for today: Was the post-FOMC Minutes release rally the usual manipulation for expiry? If so, will manipulators try again today? This is a high probability, barring ugly news.

Despite all the hawkish braying from various and sundry Fed officials and insincere inflation warnings, the Fed is still doing QE with inflation hitting 40-year highs repeatedly for the past few months.

Johnson presses Secret Service on whether agents missed pipe bomb outside DNC HQ during Harris visit – Republican Wisconsin senator looking into ‘potential lapse in security’
“Given that Secret Service reportedly swept the areas in and around the DNC headquarters prior to Harris’ arrival on January 6, 2021, it seems odd that agents did not immediately discover the pipe bomb that was reportedly located next to a park bench at that location,” Johnson said in his letter…
“Please explain why Secret Service did not discover the pipe bomb reportedly located ‘next to a park bench’ near the DNC headquarters during their sweep?” Johnson asked. He also questioned whether the Secret Service has conducted any internal investigation of how they may have missed it, and requested any pertinent records from any such review…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/johnson-secret-service-dnc-pipe-bomb-harris-visit

Lawsuit claims Michigan election chief illegally accepted Zuckerberg money to swing 2020 election
Democrat Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is focus of lawsuit.
The Chicago-based Thomas More Society filed the lawsuit in the Michigan Court of Claims, alleging Benson violated election law by spending private election funding on partisan purposes that denied Michigan voters’ constitutional equal access voting rights…
https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/lawsuit-claims-sos-benson-illegally-accepted-zuckerberg-money-swing

@ggreenwald: The scope of authoritarianism imposed by Trudeau through decree is stunning. Most western media outlets are fine with it because its targets have the wrong ideology, but that’s what’s disturbing: harsh tyranny will encounter little resistance provided it’s aimed correctly.

@HansMahn>https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2022/02/16/the-lefts-top-strategists-desperately-try-to-pivot-on-parental-rights-n2603372

@DonaldJTrumpJr: Twitter shutting down @DefiantLs account which does nothing more than highlight leftist hypocrisy in their own words and with their own tweets is a new low even for them. They didn’t shut down the accounts putting out the leftist hate/hypocrisy just the one highlighting it.

How can a Tweet be okay, but a screenshot of the Tweet is verboten?! Pure political bias!

Neil Young Admits Misinformation Drove His Demands for Joe Rogan’s Cancellation
“The letter that prompted me to act on Spotify was written by 270 medical professionals, not doctors. I erroneously said they were doctors after having read disinformation on the internet.”
https://caldronpool.com/neil-young-admits-misinformation-drove-his-demands-for-joe-rogans-cancellation/

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Well that is all for today. I will see you FRIDAY night

Robert Hryniak	1:59 PM (9 minutes ago)
to Harvey

Robert Hryniak	10:17 AM (20 minutes ago)
to

Chris Powell	10:14 PM (42 minutes ago)
to me

Milan Sabioncello	10:04 PM (54 minutes ago)
to me