FEB28/2021://THE WEST SANCTIONS THE RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK//REMOVES SWIFT FROM MOST RUSSIAN BANKS AND THAT SETS OFF TURMOIL IN ALL MARKETS: GOLD CLOSED UP $12.95 TO $1899.25//SILVER CLOSED UP 31 CENTS TO $24.31 AS LONDON’S OPTIONS EXPIRY CONCLUDES//INITIAL GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH A HUGE 14.8 TONNES//INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING 42 MILLION OZ///COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURIES/VACCINE IMPACT//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

FEB 28

 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment ·Edit

GOLD;  $1899.25 UP $12.95

SILVER: $24.31 UP 31 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1908.50

SILVER: $24.45

 Bitcoin:  $38,531 DOWN  $259

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $41,817 UP 3720

Platinum price: closing DOWN $11.30 to $1043.80

Palladium price; closing UP $115.60  at $2492.90

END

options expiry ended this afternoon at 1:30 pm

end

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comex notices//JPMorgan  notices filed//comex notices//JPMorgan  notices filed 10 FOR FEBRUARY

 EXCHANGE: COMEXCONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,925.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/25/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 02/28/2022

FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED 

  661 C JP MORGAN 3
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 10 2
905 C ADM 1
991 H CME 4

  TOTAL: 10 10
MONTH TO DATE: 18,976  

completes February//final 1,897,600 oz or 59.0233 tonnes

March:

 EXCHANGE: COMEXCONTRACT: MARCH 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,886.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/25/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 03/01/2022

FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

  118 C MACQUARIE FUT 94
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 56
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 168
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2576
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 17
661 C JP MORGAN 400 237
661 H JP MORGAN 1077
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
700 C UBS 8
709 C BARCLAYS 1198
737 C ADVANTAGE 109 26
800 C MAREX SPEC 25
905 C ADM 55

 TOTAL: 3,024 3,024

MONTH TO DATE: 3,024 



NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  Mar. CONTRACT:3024 NOTICE(S) FOR 302,400 OZ  (9.405  TONNES)

total notices so far:  3024 contracts for 302,400 oz (9.405 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

996 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  4,980,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  996  :  for 4,980,000  oz

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $12.95

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY 1026.99 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 31 CENTS:/:

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// 

CLOSING INVENTORY: 546.052 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUMONGOUS  5696 CONTRACTS TO 149,965  AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND WITH  THIS HUGE LOSS IN OI, IT WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH OUR STRONG $0.64 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.64) AND WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT SOME SILVER LONGS  AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS  LOSS OF 5221 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH MOST OF THE LOSS COMING FROM THE CONTINUAL  SPREADER /TAS LIQUIDATION

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 42.860 MILLION OZ //         V)    HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS//CONTINUAL  SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  -843

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 19 days, total  contracts: :  14,953 contracts or 74.765 million oz  OR 3.935 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (787 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 14,953 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 74.765 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 10 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAR.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 5696 WITH OUR STRONG  $0.64 LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  FAIR  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF  475 CONTRACTS( 475 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR. OF 42.860 MILLION OZ   ///  .. WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED LOSS OF 5221 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 26.105 MILLION OZ WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LOSS IS DUE TO SPREADER/TAS//

 WE HAD 996 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  4,980,000 OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG 6739 TO 605,727 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -453  CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE  STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $38.95//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST  HAD  HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION & ALSO SOME SPREADER LIQUIDATION THROUGH T.A.S.  AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED A SMALL  3398 CONTRACTS…

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MARCH AT 14.818 TONNES 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF   $38.95 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A  SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 3398  OI CONTRACTS (10.559 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED  3341 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 605,244.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3398, WITH 6739 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3341 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3398 CONTRACTS OR 10.559TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3341) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (6256,): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2915 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MARCH. AT 14.818 TONNES //NEW STANDING 14.818 TONNES//  3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION//AND SOME SPREADER LIQUIDATION THROUGH T.A.S. ,4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OI. LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :

63,030 CONTRACTS OR 6,303,000 OR 196.04  TONNES 19 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3317 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 196.04 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  196.04/3550 x 100% TONNES  5,52% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           145.12 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED  5696 CONTRACTS TO 149,965  AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 475 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 475  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  475 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 5696 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 475 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS OF 5521 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. MOST OF THE LOSS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION/TAS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 26.105 MILLION  OZ, 

OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.64 LOSS IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.90 PTS OR 0.32%       //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 54.16 PTS OR 0.24%  /The Nikkei closed UP 56.32 PTS or 0.19%       //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.68%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3094    /Oil UP TO 95.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 97.39 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3094. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3148: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER/

A)NORTH KOREA/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6739 CONTRACTS  AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS OF $38.95 IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (3341 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE   NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3341 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,   & FEB. 0 APRIL:3341 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3341 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A  SMALL  TOTAL OF 3398 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6756 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG  COMEX OI LOSS OF 6739  CONTRACTS..(SOME OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADERS UNDER T.A.S).

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR   (14.818),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 14.818 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $38.95) AND  THEY WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS AS WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL LOSS OF 9.066 TONNES OF TOTAL OI, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (14.818 TONNES)…

WE HAD  –453 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NO DOUBT SOME OF THE LOSS ON THE GOLD COMEX WAS DUE TO SOME SPREADER LIQUIDATION UNDER THE CRIMINAL T.A.S. FORMAT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2915 CONTRACTS OR 291,500 OZ OR 9.066 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 235,412 ///FAIR

Confirmed volume yesterday: 242,840 contracts  fair 

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAR ’22 COMEX GOLD //FEB 28//14.818 tonnes

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oznil oz
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz38,581.200OZ
Manfra
1200 kilobars 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today3024  notice(s)
320,400 OZ
9.405 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)1740 contracts 
174,000 oz
5.412 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month3024 notices
3,02,400 OZ
9.405 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

For today:

1 dealer deposit 

i) Into dealer Manfra:  38,581.200 oz Manfra

total dealer deposit 38,581.200 oz

No dealer withdrawal 0

0 customer deposit

total deposit: NIL oz

0 customer withdrawals

total withdrawals:  nil     oz  

ADJUSTMENTS:  2// first one: dealer to customer

a) 96,453 oz//HSBC 3 kilobars

b) customer to dealer: HSBC 3,973.373 os 

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH.

For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 4764 contracts having lost only 227  (very unusual)

Thus by definition, the initial amount of gold standing in this non active month of March is as follows;

4764 notices x 100 oz per notice = 476,400 oz or 14.818 tonnes standing

For a non delivery month this is huge!

April saw a LOSS of 7913 contracts DOWN to 453,357.

June saw a GAIN of 780 contracts up to 90,112 contracts

We had 3024 notice(s) filed today for 302,400  oz FOR THE MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 400 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3024 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 237 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3024) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAR: 4764 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  3024 x 100 oz per contract equals 476,400 OZ  OR 14.8180 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of mar. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:

No of notices filed so far (3024) x 100 oz+   (4764)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3024} x 100 oz} which equals 476400 oz standing OR 14.818 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of MAR.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  14.818 TONNES  (HUGE FOR A MAR DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

157,392.690, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  4.89 TONNES

123,963.792 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.86 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

262,049.904, oz  JPM No 2  8.15 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged  Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware:  0..3810 tonnes

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold:  1,527,431.597 oz                                     47.50 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 32,566,550.938  OZ (1012.95 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,205,816.412 OZ (472.96 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,360,734.526 OZ  (539.99 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,833,003.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  492.47 tonnes

END

MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,511,297.005  oz
Brinks
CNT
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer InventorynilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventorynil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)996CONTRACT(S
)4,980,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)7559 contracts
 (37,795,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)996 contracts 
4,980,,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil       oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 182.96 million oz/346.810 million =52.73% of comex 

ii) Comex withdrawals: 3

a)Out of CNT 20,520.660 oz

b) Out of Brinks:  898,923.055 oz

c) Out of HSBC; 591,853.290 oz

total withdrawal 1,511,297.006 oz

we had 2 adjustments// 

dealer to customer account

HSBC:  1,4,952.500oz

customer to dealer JPM  496,197.980 oz 

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.046 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 346.810 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MARCH

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MARCH OI:  8555, HAVING LOST 7441 CONTRACTS FROM FRIDAY

THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IN THIS VERY ACTIVE MONTH OF MARCH IS AS FOLLOWS:

8555 NOTICES X 5000 OZ  PER NOTICE =  42.775 MILLION OZ

APRIL HAD A  6 CONTRACT GAIN// CONTRACTS RISING TO 503

MAY HAD A  GAIN OF 1308 CONTRACTS UP TO 117,506 contracts

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 996 for 4,980,000 oz

Comex volumes: 54,791// est. volume today//good/

Comex volume: confirmed FRIDAY: 85,548 contracts (strong)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  996 x 5,000 oz =. 4,980,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (8572) and the number of notices served upon today 996 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAR./2021 contract month: 996 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (8572)  – number of notices served upon today (996) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month equates 42,860,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD UP $17.35//A HUGE  CHANGE AT THE GLD: 5.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD// IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $6.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD UP $29.50: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP 414.60 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.70 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $27.20 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.60 TONNES//

FEB 4/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.59 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.95//A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.78 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.04 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $10.10//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.15//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.10 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $10.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $10.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN UNBELIEVABLE DEPOSIT OF 27.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1029.32 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.510 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ/

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 350,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.017 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.227 MILLION OZ

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.402 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.210 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLIONOZ

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THES LV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV/FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.143 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.218 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.430 MILLION OZ/

FEB 4/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILION OZ

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT539.212 MILLION OZ//

FEB 2/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.411 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS : NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 27/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.311 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ/

.JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.8 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 532.692 MILLION OZ//.

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 546.052 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARDS

Moscow Stock Exchange Can’t Open as Russian Stock Prices Collapse on Foreign ExchangesBy Pam Martens and Russ Martens: February 28, 2022 ~https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/02/moscow-stock- exchange-cant-open-as-russian-stock-prices-collapse-on- foreign-exchanges/

-END-

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Russian sanctions and gold reserves

Following on from Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine, the Russian advance does not appear to have gone as smoothly as President Putin may have envisaged, although the flurry of claims from both sides make detailed and accurate analysis difficult to compile. Certainly independent news reports out of Ukraine’s capital city, Kyiv (Kiev) suggest that this key target for the Russian forces remains in Ukrainian hands so far, although the situation in the country’s second city, Kharkiv, is more difficult to confirm. Both sides have claimed it is under their control at the time of writing.

Certainly Ukrainian resistance to the Russian attack, despite the latter’s numeric and advanced weaponry superiority, has been much stronger than the Russian military had apparently expected. Contrary to the open- armed reception the Russian forces had been led to believe they would receive, the strength and purpose of Ukrainian resistance to occupation must have proved to be a salutary awakening. Nevertheless the Russian advance continues and one suspects the pure weight of numbers and the weaponry the aggressor can bring to bear, is almost certain to win the battle and Ukraine may be subjugated unless a diplomatic solution can be negotiated. However the military cost of a protracted occupation for Russia would be considerable and a subsequent resistance movement throughout Ukraine may prove difficult to control.

It certainly looks at this initial stage of the conflict that President Putin may well have underestimated the degree of resistance and the subsequent military and economic costs involved, Condemnation of the invasion worldwide has been almost universal, the imposition of economic sanctions will be damaging and the cutting off of key Russian banks from the SWIFT international money transfer system will create difficulties in international trade despite the country’s attempts to set up a system to bypass it.

The successes of the Ukrainian resistance will have been damaging to any sense of Russian military invincibility and may dissuade President Putin from taking on any similar exercise – particularly if this were to create conflict with NATO with its own access tp modern high-tech weaponry and well-trained military personnel.

The effects on the gold market have certainly been mixed, and perhaps puzzling. Initially gold surged putting on well over $100, but then it lost most of its gains as markets considered that the initially proposed sanctions regime might not be as damaging to those instigating it as initially thought. Gold thus closed the week below the key $1,900 level and equities regained much of the ground they had lost. But, we suspect, things have not yet settled down and we may well see gold gain ground again, and equities fall back, in the days and weeks ahead.

We have another FOMC meeting coming up in a couple of weeks’ time at which the U.S. Federal Reserve seems likely to start increasing interest rates to try and combat inflation. There is even the consideration that it might well make its initial interest rate rise 50 basis points instead of the usual 25. What that would do to the equities markets and the U.S. economy is difficult to judge. But there is the fear that, if a 50 basis point rise is implemented, the stock market could take a sharp dive and U.S. economic growth would be severely curtailed and a recession may ensue. Under these circumstances gold could well take another leg up. We shall see what actually transpires before too long, but undoubtedly the markets may become more volatile in the anticipation thereof.

Inflation thus remains a major problem and that is likely to be exacerbated by the new Russian sanctions regime – particularly with its likely impact on energy prices. Gold may also be affected given Russia is either the world’s second or third largest gold producer and if sanctions prevent the Russian gold producers from accessing international markets to sell their output that could reduce gold supply availability worldwide. It could, however, also force the Russian central bank to restart increasing its gold reserves by buying up the gold which may no longer be destined for international markets.

The whole Russian invasion scenario raises some disturbing questions too about the mental state of some of the world’s most prominent leaders. President Putin seemed to be utilising the apparent conspiracy theory of Ukraine genocide of ethnic Russians inside its borders, which seems unlikely given that around half the Ukrainian population is ethnic Russian. Perhaps President Putin actually believes this to be the case though much as former U.S. President Trump seems to believe that the Presidency was stolen at the last election – another conspiracy theory easily disproven. Trump also seems to consider Putin’s move on Ukraine a political masterstroke and he seems likely to run for the U.S. Presidency again in the next election – and may even win a second term. To this observer the fact that two of the world’s rival superpowers might be controlled by leaders who appear to perhaps have their key decisions driven by conspiracy theories, is worrying in the extreme.

27 Feb 2022

3.  Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

A must read..

the gloves come off…

(Ambrose Evans Pritchard/GATA)

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Russia may be forced to dump its gold to raise funds

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-02-27 12:08Section: Daily Dispatches

The West Has Finally Taken the Gloves Off Against Putin, and Redeemed Our Honour

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Sunday, February 27, 2022

On the third attempt, the West is at last grasping the nettle in Ukraine.

This weekend’s draconian measures come too late to deter Vladimir Putin, but not too late to inflict real pain and perhaps to set in motion the destruction of his regime.

The market verdict on earlier, minimalist, lowest-denominator attempts to sanction Russia was almost embarrassing. Moscow’s MOEX equity index rocketed 20pc on Friday, with relief rallies for Russian bonds and the rouble. Oil prices settled down.  

It was a collective judgment by hard-nosed traders that the West was not willing to go beyond symbolic gestures, and that business would carry on as usual even if a sovereign democratic Ukraine were wiped off the map. 

Saturday evening was the moment that the Western democracies took a deep breath and began to use their crushing economic and financial power, all too aware of the coming blowback through a commodity shock and multiple channels of financial contagion.  

The joint decision by the US, UK, the EU, and Canada to sanction Russia’s central bank will prevent Vladimir Putin from deploying a large part of his $635 billion fighting fund of foreign exchange reserves.

It is believed that two-thirds are located at the New York Fed, or in London, Frankfurt, and other Western jurisdictions. The reserves can be frozen. 

Putin still has gold under his control, so brace for a crash in bullion prices as he dumps 400-ounce Soviet bars on the Dubai market, all the way down to final tsarist bars with the imperial eagle.

If these estimates are correct — and it may not be as simple as that — Putin will no longer have the means to stabilise the rouble, or to help Russian companies cover some $330 billion of external debt as repayment comes due.

This is how hyperinflation begins. A vicious circle sets in where devaluation turns manageable foreign liabilities into systemic insolvencies. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/27/west-has-finally-taken-gloves-against-putin-redeemed-honour/

END

Important…Pozsar writes that sanctions on Russia will force central banks to print infinite money as we will see missed payments and giant overdrafts within the international banking system. the reverse repo pool money will not be enough and thus cental banks must be ready to supply the needed dollars.

(a must read)

Purvis//Bloomberg/Pozsar/GATA)

Sanctions on Russia will force central banks to return to infinite money, CS analyst says

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-02-27 14:45Section: Daily Dispatches

SWIFT Ban Means the Fed May Need to Be Ready With Dollars

By Benjamin Purvis
Bloomberg News
Sunday, February 27, 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/swift-ban-means-the-f…

The decision to exclude various Russian lenders from the SWIFT messaging system could result in missed payments and giant overdrafts within the international banking system and spur monetary authorities to reactivate daily operations to supply the market with dollars.

That’s the view of prominent Credit Suisse Group AG strategist Zoltan Pozsar, who published a note today examining the consequences for money markets of the decision to take some lenders off SWIFT, a system that facilitates international payments between institutions.

Drawing comparisons with the 2008 Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. failure and the pandemic-related market seizures of March 2020, Pozsar warns that “central banks should stand ready to make markets on Monday again.”

“Exclusions from SWIFT will lead to missed payments and giant overdrafts similar to the missed payments and giant overdrafts that we saw in March 2020,” Pozsar wrote. “Banks’ inability to make payments due to their exclusion from SWIFT is the same as Lehman’s inability to make payments due to its clearing bank’s unwillingness to send payments on its behalf. History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.”

In Pozsar’s view, current excess reserves and reverse repurchase agreement facilities won’t be enough, and monetary authorities will need to act. And the upshot from that is that the Federal Reserve, which has been paving the way to start shrinking its balance sheet through so-called quantitative tightening, might actually expand it again first, according to Pozsar.

end

I am surprised it took them this long to make the decision to resume its gold purchases

(Reuters/GATA)

Russian central bank to resume gold purchases on domestic market Monday

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-02-27 14:53Section: Daily Dispatches

But what will the ruble be worth then?

* * *

From Reuters
Sunday, February 27, 2022

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russian-central-bank-resume-gold-purchases-domestic-market-monday-2022-02-27/

MOSCOW — Russia’s central bank said today it would resume buying gold on the domestic market from Feb. 28 as it undertakes measures to try to ensure financial stability during Western sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his military command to put nuclear-armed forces on high alert as Ukrainian fighters defending the city of Kharkiv said they had repelled an attack by invading Russian troops

end

Energy firms snap up Russian gas as Europe seeks alternatives

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-02-27 17:05Section: Daily Dispatches

Even Ukraine hasn’t cut the pipelines carrying Russian gas across its territory to western Europe.

* * *

By Elena Mazneva
Bloomberg News
Sunday, February 27, 2022

European leaders talking up plans to wean the continent off Russian natural gas are facing a harsh reality: Energy companies are buying more as the war rages in Ukraine. 

Russian shipments through pipelines crossing Ukraine have surged to near the maximum level allowed under the transit contract, while some gas has started to flow again into Germany via a key pipeline running through Belarus and Poland.

The increase in purchases comes as European politicians are discussing how to retool energy policy in the wake of Russia’s invasion.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged new support for liquefied natural gas terminals just days after shelving the $11 billion Nord Stream 2 pipeline to bring Russian supplies to Europe. Italy said it could reopen some shuttered coal plants and is also considering importing more LNG from the U.S., and gas from Azerbaijan, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya via existing pipelines.

“The events of the last few days and weeks have shown us that a responsible, forward-looking energy policy is not only crucial for our economy and our climate. But also crucial for our security,” Scholz told the parliament in Berlin on Sunday. “We will change course in order to overcome our import dependency on individual energy suppliers.” 

Western nations are ratcheting up pressure on Moscow, agreeing to impose new sanctions to further isolate Russia’s economy and its financial system after initial penalties failed to persuade President Vladimir Putin to withdraw forces from Ukraine. But the decision to penalize Russia’s central bank and exclude some lenders from the SWIFT messaging system — used for trillions of dollars worth of transactions around the world — excludes energy. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/energy-firms-snap-up-russian-gas-as-europe-seeks-alternatives

END

For your interest…

Doomed ship of gold’s ghostly picture gallery plucked from seabed

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-02-27 22:26Section: Daily Dispatches

By Dalya Alberge
The Observer / The Guardian, London
Sunday, February 27, 2022

It is one of the most famous treasure wrecks ever discovered, a steamer named the “ship of gold” after it sank in 1857 off the coast of South Carolina with one of the largest cargoes of gold ever lost at sea. 

Miners who had struck it rich in the California gold rush were among those bringing home to New York their hard-earned wealth, only to lose their lives when the SS Central America was struck by a hurricane, sinking nearly a mile and a half beneath the waves.

When nuggets, ingots, and coins were recovered from the seabed in various expeditions between 1988 and 2014, the world was dazzled. But, with reported values of tens of millions of pounds it sparked a complex legal case that landed its original treasure hunter in jail.

Now Dr. Sean Kingsley, a British maritime archaeologist, is focusing attention on another facet of the recovered artefacts: an astonishing collection of 19th-century portraits that somehow survived at the bottom of the Atlantic.

He told the Observer: “Glass plate photos had preserved the faces of miners, merchants, and their families, staring up at the living from the seabed.”

The portraits are eerie but beautiful. These were the loved ones of those who had been on a ship that sank 150 miles from the Carolina coast with the loss of 425 lives. A judge and a comedian were among the passengers. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2022/feb/27/doomed-ship-of-golds-ghostly-picture-gallery-is-plucked-from-the-seabed

END

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/EDIBLE OILS/HUGE PRICE INCREASES//

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.3094

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3147

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 54.16 PTS OR 0.24%

2. Nikkei closed UP 50.32 PTS O.19%

3. Europe stocks  ALL RED   

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  96651/Euro FALLS TO 1.1203-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.185/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 115.52/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 95.71 and Brent: 97.39–

3f Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP//  OFF- SHORE  UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.0.191%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 1.79% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.18%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.60: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.54

3k Gold at $1911.00 silver at: 24.38   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1086/100 in roubles/dollar;ROUBLE AT 93.96

3m oil into the 95 dollar handle for WTI and 97 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 115.53 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9221– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0331 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.920 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.237 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.82

Futures Bounce From Overnight Lows As New Peace Talks Begin

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 08:09 AM

Global stocks and US futures tumbled on Monday, although they were well off their worst levels as a fresh round of ceasefire talks kicked off on Monday morning offering a glimmer of hope that hostilities will end; sovereign bonds rallied and commodities surged amid heightened uncertainty after a new wave of sanctions against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.

March contracts on the S&P 500 Index declined as much as 2.9% before trimming losses to 1%, or down 43 points as of 745 a.m. in New York. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow were each down 1.4%. European stocks also recovered from an earlier as banks with exposure to Russia led declines, while utilities and defense stocks gained. Oil, natural gas, wheat and palladium jumped, as Brent crude soared to about $103 a barrel on fears of commodity-supply disruptions. Rallies in the dollar, gold and Treasuries underlined the demand for havens.

Over the weekend, Western nations agreed on new sanctions to further isolate Russia, by seeking to prevent its central bank from using foreign reserves to blunt sanctions and excluding some Russian lenders from the SWIFT messaging system that underpins trillions of dollars worth of transactions. Below is a summary of the biggest Russian updates over the past 24 hours:

  • Russian negotiator at the Ukrainian discussions says Russia is interested in coming to an agreement with Ukraine as soon as possible, via Ifx.
  • Russian President Putin ordered to place Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces on high alert citing aggressive statements by NATO leaders and severe economic sanctions against Moscow, according to Sky News.
  • Kremlin declines to elaborate on Russian President Putin’s decision on “special regime” for nuclear forces; declines to comment on the risk of confrontation between Russian and NATO; weapons supplies to Ukraine is hostile towards Russia.
  • Russia was reportedly struggling to take Kyiv and Kharkiv but was pushing across the Black Sea coast, while Maxar satellite imagery showed a large convoy of Russian ground forces and tanks are moving towards Kyiv, according to Reuters.
  • Russia’s Medvedev said diplomatic relations are not especially needed anymore and that it is time to padlock the embassies; subsequently, Russia is not considering recalling ambassadors from European nations, according to Russian news outlet IFX.
  • Russian Defence Ministry has declared full control over the airspace of Ukraine, via an envoy cited by Sky News Arabia.
  • US official said Belarus is preparing to join the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to Washington Post.
  • Israeli PM Bennet spoke with Russian President Putin in which he proposed that Israel mediate the Russian-Ukraine crisis and stated that President Putin was “open” to mediate with Ukraine, according to an Israeli official.
  • Websites belonging to Tass, Izvestia, Fontaka, RBC and Kommersant have been hacked, via MiddleEastEye’s Soylu.

“The news flow on the conflict will dominate short-term market fluctuations,” said Patrick Moonen, principal strategist of multi-asset at NN Investment Partners. “We expect a period of high volatility and higher equity risk premia. Commodity prices are the main transmission channel and the risk of supply disruptions will keep these high. This can lead to sustained high inflation numbers and can weigh on the growth outlook.”

Big U.S. tech stocks are lower in premarket trading (iPhone maker Apple -1.5%, chipmaker Nvidia -2.1%, Facebook owner Meta Platforms -1.2%, Microsoft -1.3%, electric vehicle maker Tesla -1.7%), while defense names including Lockheed Martin and Raytheon are set to climb as European defense stocks jumped after Germany said it will increase defense spending. Shares in Yandex, which operates a search engine and web portal in Russia, fell as much as 31% in premarket.

Bank stocks tumbled in premarket trading Monday as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falls to its lowest level in nearly a month amid a broader move away from risk assets, after Western nations increased sanctions on Russia. All of the biggest U.S. bank stocks are lower this morning with Morgan Stanley sliding 2.7%, JPMorgan dropping 2.4%, Citigroup slipping 2.4%, Bank of America dropping 2.3%, Goldman Sachs falling 2.2% and Wells Fargo losing 2%.

“With the recent increase in geopolitical risk, we believe market levels could remain under pressure and capital markets activity may remain volatile, which could negatively impact the near-term revenue outlook for Universal banks including Trust banks,” KBW analysts including Chris McGratty and David Konrad wrote in a note.

“KBW remains constructive on U.S. financials, but the yield curve and credit spreads represent potential negative risk factors that could be amplified if geopolitical tensions accelerate and are worse than the market anticipates,” they added.

Shares of cybersecurity software companies could advance as the removal of some Russia banks from the SWIFT financial messaging system, along with sanctions on Russia’s central bank, will likely result in a significant ramp-up of cyber warfare targeting U.S. and Europe enterprises and government agencies, analysts say.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 is down 0.9%, paring a much bigger earlier loss and still much higher than last week’s lows, with banks, autos and insurance the worst performing sectors. BP Plc shares dropped after its decision to offload its stake in Russia’s Rosneft. Even though stock futures are well off their overnight lows, the early-morning risk-off mood in European markets is clear: Russia is and will be the focus of investor attention. As Bloomberg notes, German yields are sharply lower at the front end, in line with Treasuries, despite the region’s inflation woes being emphasized by consumer prices in Spain rising faster than forecast in February. Italian stocks are lagging, while the FTSE 100 is outperforming, helped by defense stock BAE. S&P 500 futures are down but near session highs.

In rates, Treasuries remained richer across the curve, although futures are off best levels of the day, after opening gap higher following weekend announcements of new sanctions against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine. Yields lower by 3bp to 7bp across the curve led by front-end, steepening 2s10s spread by more than 2bp, 5s30s more than 3bp on the day; 10-year ~1.92% after dropping as low as 1.885% in early Asia session. Funding stress remains priced into front-end with March eurodollars lower and front-month FRA/OIS wider. The first-month FRA/OIS remains wider by 5.5bp on the day at ~19bp after opening as high as 21bp; the Mar22/Jun22 eurodollar futures spread is flatter by 7bp.

Meanwhile, the flight-to-quality across the front-end has further eroded rate-hike premium in overnight swaps; around 28bp remains priced into the March FOMC meeting (vs 31bp Friday), 145bp into December (vs 155bp prior). Odds of a 50bps rate hike are around 15%, after dropping as low as 9% overnight.  German yields are sharply lower at the front end, in line with Treasuries, despite the region’s inflation woes being emphasized by consumer prices in Spain rising faster than forecast in February.

In FX, the dollar has rallied in haven demand. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped as much as 0.7% and the greenback rose against all its Group-of-10 peers apart from the Swiss franc and yen, while Treasuries gained after Western nations agreed to penalize Russia’s central bank and exclude some of the country’s banks from the SWIFT messaging system. The trading session calmed down slightly after an initial shock by the scale of sanctions on Russia that aim to cripple the country’s financial system and its central bank.

The ruble has somewhat calmed down, with the onshore trading at 99 per dollar after the Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate to the highest in almost two decades and imposed some controls on the flow of capital. The ruble lost a third of its value in offshore markets at one point on Monday, plunging as low as 109 as the cost of insuring the government debt signaled a 56% probability of default.

The euro slipped below $1.12 falling on worries about risks for Europe’s economy, which relies on Russian energy.  Euro hedging costs remain underpriced on a relative basis even as they extend their recent advance after Western nations escalate sanctions on Russia. cost of converting euro payments into dollars using three-month cross-currency basis swaps soars at the European open as demand for the greenback surged. Sweden’s krona was the worst G-10 performer, dropping by as much as 2.5% against the dollar before paring. Japan’s bond volatility surged to a one-year high as worsening tensions over Ukraine drove up oil prices and boosted inflationary pressures. The yen was steady versus the dollar.

In commodities, crude futures advance. WTI drifts 5.3% higher to trade ~$96. Brent rises 5.2% at $103. Spot gold rises roughly $15 to trade above $1,900/oz. Most base metals trade in the green; LME aluminum outperforms peers. European natural gas surged.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1% to 4,337.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.1% to 446.23
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.17%
  • Euro down 0.9% to $1.1171
  • Brent Futures up 4.6% to $102.47/bbl
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 181.89
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 595.31
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 26,526.82
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,886.93
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 22,713.02
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,462.31
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 56,312.72
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,049.13
  • Kospi up 0.8% to 2,699.18
  • Brent Futures up 4.6% to $102.47/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,899.80
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.59% to 97.19

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Bank of Russia raised the key rate to 20% from 9.5% after the ruble fell by as much as 29% against the greenback after the new sanctions were imposed on the nation. Starting Feb. 28, Russian companies will be obliged to sell 80% of their FX-denominated revenue, Finance Ministry says in emailed statement
  • Ukraine said a delegation led by its defense minister had arrived at the border with Belarus for talks with Russian officials aimed at ending a conflict that’s triggered sanctions against Moscow and sent the ruble into a tailspin
  • Gold has replaced Treasuries as the haven of choice as the conflict in Ukraine worsens, with surging oil prices diminishing the appeal of bonds
  • ‘Too risky to deal in’ is the mantra from foreign-exchange to equities trading floors as investors step back from dealing with Russian assets

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded cautiously after Russian President Putin ordered nuclear forces to be placed on high alert and with the west imposing further sanctions such as excluding some Russian banks from SWIFT and restrictions targeting CBR’s international reserves. ASX 200 shrugged off early weakness, helped by the commodity-related sectors and stronger than expected Retail Sales.
Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with pressure from the haven flows into JPY. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded mixed with Hong Kong dragged lower by large tech and virus concerns with a lockdown for the city said to not be ruled out during mass COVID testing, while losses in the mainland were limited after the PBoC continued its firm liquidity effort and China’s Politburo reiterated to step-up implementation of macro policies to stabilise the economy

Top Asian News

  • Ukraine Crisis Risks Pushing Sri Lanka Closer to Default
  • Sunac Said In Talk to Sell Two Projects to Chinese AMC: REDD
  • Chinese Developers’ Dollar Bond Woes Deepen: Evergrande Update
  • Biocon Shares Tumble on $3.3 Billion Viatris Biosimilars Deal

European bourses are pressured amid geopolticial tensions and SWIFT sanctions, Euro Stoxx 50 -3.0%; albeit, bourses are off worst levels as negotiations commence. Sectors has Banks as the laggard given SWIFT restrictions while Energy has been torn between benchmark pricing and BP exiting Rosneft. US futures are, in-fitting with European comparables, subdued but off worst levels, ES -1.4%.

Top European News

  • CRH to Sell Unit to KPS for $3.8b Enterprise Value: M&A Snapshot
  • Europe Autos Fall; Firms With Most Russia Exposure Lead Declines
  • Russia, Belarus Central Banks Hike Interest Rates: Map
  • Yandex Tumbles in U.S. as Russian Companies Come Under Pressure

In FX:

  • Rouble plunges to fresh all time low before drastic CBR intervention via a hike in key rate to 20% from 9.5% – Usd /Rub off 100.0000+ peaks, but still elevated.
  • Renminbi rallies towards record peak vs Dollar and remains in demand as a regional safe haven even though major state-owned Chinese banks reportedly bought USD/Cny at 6.3100.
  • Buck bid elsewhere, but off best levels as DXY slips below the 97.000 handle.
  • Euro underperforming on Russia-Ukraine headwinds, while Franc outperforms unchecked by official selling it seems – Eur/Usd capped at 1.1200, Usd/Chf and Eur/Chf eyeing 0.9200 and 1.0300 respectively.
  • Aussie gets some retail therapy ahead of RBA policy meeting, Aud/Usd holding around 0.7200
  • Major Chinese state-owned banks seen buying USD at around 6.31 in USD/CNY, according to Reuters sources.

In commodities, WTI and Brent are bolstered amid the geopoltical tensions, though off best levels as negotiations commenced and Brent May’22 fails to hold onto USD 100/bbl. OPEC+ revised its 2022 oil market surplus forecast down to 1.1mln bpd from 1.3mln bpd and it missed oil output targets by 972k bpd in Jan vs. 824k bpd in December, according to the JTC. BP (BP/ LN) is to exit its 20% shareholding in Russian oil major Rosneft and will write down as much as USD 25bln at the end of Q1 as a result of its Rosneft exit. North Sea Troll crude oil stream is to load 6 cargoes in April vs. 7 planned in March, according to Reuters sources. UK Ministers are said to be preparing to release over 1mln barrels of the UK’s strategic oil reserve to tackle rising fuel prices, according to The Times. Spot gold is bid alongside haven-FX, regaining the USD 1900/oz mark though remains capped by overnight highs at 1931/oz. China state planner will step up supervision of iron spot and futures markets to ensure stable market operation, while it will hold a meeting with the market regulator and the Dalian exchange to look into irregular trading in iron ore spot and futures markets. Traders warned they are unlikely to make wheat offers from the Black Sea region at Monday’s Egyptian buying tender, according to Bloomberg.

US Event calendar

  • 8:30am: Jan. Retail Inventories MoM, prior 4.4%
  • 8:30am: Jan. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$99.2b, prior -$101b, revised -$100.5b
  • 8:30am: Jan. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.2%, prior 2.2%
  • 9:45am: Feb. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 62.0, prior 65.2
  • 10:30am: Feb. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 3.5, prior 2.0

END

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.90 PTS OR 0.32%       //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 54.16 PTS OR 0.24%  /The Nikkei closed UP 56.32 PTS or 0.19%       //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.68%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3094    /Oil UP TO 95.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 97.39 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3094. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3148: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER//

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

HONG KONG/COVID//

The Omicron variant wanes in the uSA but not HOng Kong and that forces the city to draconian restrictions. This sparked a mass exodus from Hong Kong.

(zerohedge)

Draconian COVID Restrictions Spark Exodus From Hong Kong

SUNDAY, FEB 27, 2022 – 08:00 PM

As the omicron wave of the COVID pandemic continues to wane in the US (recently convincing the CDC to finally drop its federal masking guidance), the situation in Hong Kong couldn’t be more different. As case numbers continue to soar despite the government’s suddenly draconian measures to suppress spread, thousands of Hong Kongers have decided to flee, escaping both the crushing COVID restrictions, and the city-state’s increasingly authoritarian tendencies now that Beijing has reasserted political control.

Hong Kong’s response to the virus has gotten increasingly heavy-handed as authorities demand that it fall in line with Beijing’s “COVID zero” policy, which requires mass testing and liberal use of mass quarantines to isolate areas experiencing outbreaks. For much of the pandemic, Hong Kong’s decision to close itself off from international travelers appeared to be enough to keep COVID at bay.

But omicron punctured its defenses, and now thousands of sick individuals are being shipped off to quarantine “camps”.

These and other strict measures risk transforming Hong Kong’s trickle of emigres into a flood.

WSJ caught up with one individual,  a western expat living in Hong Kong named Charles Murton. Murton first arrived in the city during his teenage years, but is now preparing to flee with his family, perhaps to Singapore, a destination that beckons for many Hong Kongers since the government there has continued to encoourage migration from Hong Kong, despite harboring increasing levels of COVID infection itself.

Murton said the city’s decision to shutter schools next month as it seeks to test all 7.4M of its reisdents for COVID was the last straw.

“The virus is something that you’ve got to live with, but that doesn’t seem to be the thought process here,” the 41-year-old logistics executive told WSJ.

Making matters worse, the latest clampdown in Hong Kong contrasts sharply with decisions to deescalate restrictions by the US and Europe, making the city’s stringent restrictions seem increasingly painful by comparison.

The latest data confirm the exodus. Immigration data cited by WSJ shows nearly 69K more Hong Kong residents have left the city than arrived so far since the start of 2022. Almost 80% of those departing have left since the start of February, a massive increase by all accounts. The data on population outflows from Hong Kong dates back to January 2020.

But other economic factors attest to the sudden will to flee: there have been hastily canceled doctors appointments, children taking online classes while on the airport shuttle and a rush to find tenants to take over apartment leases.

As a reminder, Hong Kong’s restrictions include the following: practically all nonresidents are barred from entering the city, and returning travelers must pay out of pocket for weekslong hotel quarantines no matter their test results or vaccination status. Hong Kong has also banned gatherings of more than two people and halted all indoor dining after 1800 local time. Gyms have been shut, bars, hair salons and even campsites have been forced to close. Beginning on Thursday,  the unvaccinated can no longer shop in supermarkets and malls, essentially making a vaccine a prerequisite for continuing to survive in the city.

Despite all of this, cases in Hong Kong have continued to climb at a shocking rate: the city has recorded more than 126K confirmed cases between Dec. 31 and Saturday, about 10x the number of infections seen in 2020 and 2021 combined.

On Sunday, the city reported a record 26.026K new COVID infections and 83 deaths, a new daily record for cases.

With the National Party Congress in Beijing set for later in the year, President Xi has proclaimed that the defeat of the coronavirus is now Hong Kong’s “overriding mission”.

But at the end of the day, it’s regular Hong Kongers, not CCP bureaucrats in Beijing, who will shoulder the burden of the crackdown.

end

CHINA/USA/RUSSIA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFFAIRS

EU//RUSSIA INVASION OF UKRAINE//SANCTIONS

Eu proposes sanctions aimed at Russia’s wealthiest tycoons

(zerohedge)

EU Proposes Sanctions Aimed At Russia’s Wealthiest Tycoons

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 04:15 AM

Sanctions under discussion by the European Union would hit some of Russia’s wealthiest tycoons, along with top officials in state companies and the media, in an escalation of penalties against the invasion of Ukraine, according to documents seen by Bloomberg.Alisher Usmanov

While European governments will still need to approve the list, which could still change before they take effect, a handful of billionaires are on the radar who avoided US sanctions – including metals tycoon Alisher Usmanov, Alfa Group owners Mikhail Fridman and Petr Aven, plus Alexei Mordashov, who controls a major steel company.

Putin spox Dmitry Peskov and state-media figures accused by the EU of spreading disinformation are also on the list, as is cellist and longtime Putin friend Sergei Roldugin.

The EU is also looking to include executives at top state companies, as well as military and security officials, many of whom have already been sanctioned by the U.S. in recent years. The proposed list includes Igor Sechin, chief executive officer of oil company Rosneft, and Nikolay Tokarev, CEO of oil company Transneft. -Bloomberg

According to EU diplomat Josep Borrell, “we have agreed to increase the peoples and entities that are going to be subject to restrictive measures, the full list will be finished” at a EU ambassador meeting.

“This includes Russian oligarchs and businessmen whose listing carries huge economic impact and political figures who hold key role in the Putin system in Russia,” he added.

Bloomberg notes that while the US isn’t announcing any further sanctions at this time, ‘no Russian oligarch or family members are safe.’

On Saturday, Western allies agreed to block “selected” Russian banks from the SWIFT payments system, and impose restrictions on the Russian central bank – a move which was coordinated with the United States and the UK.

The EU also announced on Sunday that the bloc would ban Russian state-backed media outlets, Sputnik and RT, and block Russian aircraft from its airspace.

end

Switzerland/EU/Russia

Russia will not be happy with this: many oligarchs have money in Switzerland and now there money is frozen.

(zerohedge)

In Historic Breach With Neutrality, Switzerland Joins EU In Sanctions On Russia

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 08:41 AM

Switzerland’s historic neutrality is no longer: moments ago Reuters reported that the Swiss government had joined the EU in adopting sanctions on Russia, freezing assets of targeted companies and people effective immediately:

  • SWISS GOVERNMENT SAYS ADOPTS EU SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA
  • SWISS GOVERNMENT SAYS FREEZES ASSETS OF TARGETED PEOPLE AND COMPANIES EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
  • SWISS GOVERNMENT SAYS ADOPTS FINANCIAL SANCTIONS AGAINST PRESIDENT PUTIN AND OTHER RUSSIAN OFFICIALS

Swiss President Ignazio Cassis said that adopting the EU sanctions against Russia was a unique, difficult step that required careful consideration. Previously, on Sunday, he said that Switzerland’s neutrality must be preserved and it stood ready to offer its good offices for diplomacy if talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials on the Belarusian border do not succeed, for example by reaching an armistice.

“That does not prevent us from calling a spade a spade,” he said.

Switzerland had walked a tortuous line between showing solidarity with the West and maintaining its traditional neutrality that the government says could make it a potential mediator. But it faces growing pressure to side clearly with the West against Moscow and adopt punitive European Union sanctions. The government had so far said only that it will not let Switzerland be used as a platform to circumvent EU sanctions.

In the biggest peace march in decades, around 20,000 people demonstrated in the capital Bern on Saturday to support Ukraine, some booing the government over its cautious policy.

Cassis said on Sunday that Ukrainians fleeing the conflict would be welcome “for a transitional period, which we hope will be as short a possible.”

Justice Minister Karin Keller-Sutter said separately that Switzerland was ready to take in those who need protection and also to support the neighbouring countries affected. “We will not leave people in the lurch,” she said.

The Swiss government last week amended its watchlist to include 363 individuals and four companies that the EU had put on its sanctions list to punish Moscow.

Russians held nearly 10.4 billion Swiss francs ($11.24 billion) in Switzerland in 2020, Swiss National Bank data show.

end

GERMANY/USA/RUSSIA/NATURAL GAS

Will Russia demand gold to be paid for Natural Gas purchases?

(zerohedge)

US, Germany Continue To Allow Gas Transactions With Russia Despite SWIFT Ban

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 08:48 AM

As Russian banks closed down both ATMs and then, later, open market trading, to avoid or contain the fallout from the Russian incursion into Ukraine, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that the West doesn’t have the right tools to sanction Russia  – not that they could even if they did.

The problem, as we have said many times before,boils down to Russia’s control over Europe’s energy supplies. But even as a growing number of Russian oligarchs release messages claiming that their sympathies lie with the Ukrainians (not that any of them have actually committed to doing anything that might undermine the war effort), Russia’s position remains unassailable.

And now, a German economy ministry official has confirmed that despite the sweeping sanctions Imposed on Russia, including the removal of it banks from the SWIFT system, that German companies will still be able to find ways to pay their energy bills to the Russians to keep the gas flowing.

Here’s more from a brief Reuters note on the subject”

There are still channels by which Germany’s gas bills can be paid despite the exclusion of Russia from the main global payments system SWIFT, an economy ministry spokesperson said on Monday.

At the same time, it is impossible to estimate the total impact of sanctions against Russia on the German economy at the moment, the spokesperson said.

A few hours later, the US jumped on that bandwagen

Still, the intensity of the panic and the dramatic scenes from the front have been enough to send the price of natural gas in Europe to soar more than 40%.

This isn’t a surprise: Putin and Russia have been well-prepared for the international sanctions and have long been busy devising ways to circumvent them. What’s more, Russia’s oil and gas resources are simply too tempting for buyers to turn down.

According to our most recent report, dated to Saturday evening, the US and its European partners had agreed to the following regarding Russia:

  1. Commit to ensuring that “selected Russian banks” are removed from the SWIFT messaging system: “This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally.
  2. Commit to imposing “restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions.”
  3. Commit to “acting against the people and entities who facilitate the war in Ukraine” by taking measures to limit the sale of citizenship, so called golden passports, that let wealthy Russians connected to the Russian government become citizens.
  4. Commit to launching “a transatlantic task force that will ensure the effective implementation of our financial sanctions by identifying and freezing the assets of sanctioned individuals and companies that exist within our jurisdictions.”
  5. Stepping up or coordination against disinformation and other forms of hybrid warfare.

European Commission chief went ever further.

She also took some shots at Russia’s central bank.

Of course, Germany wouldn’t be in this terrible position today – where it must choose between buying Russian energy products or allowing its citizens to freeze – if it had only continued to support its nuclear scientists and their power plant goals. Instead, Chancellor Angela Merkel de-commissioned nuclear power plants and made the country less reliant on Russia. It appeaes she did this for political reasons.

But the timing of this decision is already coming back to bite. As one twitter user put it:

As a reminder, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or SWIFT, is the financial-messaging infrastructure that links the world’s banks. The Belgium-based system is run by its member banks and handles millions of daily payment instructions across more than 200 countries and territories and 11,000 financial institutions. Iran and North Korea are cut off from it. But despite it’s tremendous clout the fact remains: it’s only a messaging service. No dollars are flowing through its systems.

And finally, due to the US’s crackdown, Russia and China are now in charge of their own SWIFT-like messaging services that exclude the US< once of Washington’s mnay fears

end

A little late??

‘Putin’s War’ Moves Germany To Belatedly Boost Defense Spending Above 2% Of GDP

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 05:45 AM

“With the invasion of Ukraine, we are in a new era,” Scholz Chancellor Olaf Scholz said while announcing plans which mark a huge, historic policy shift – drastically ramping up defense spending – in response to the Russian war in Ukraine. 

“Germany will channel 100 billion euros ($113 billion) this year into a fund to modernize the military, Scholz said Sunday in a speech to a special session of the lower house of parliament,” Bloomberg writes of the Sunday announcement. “By 2024, the government will spend at least 2% of gross domestic product each year on defense, he added, in line with a NATO target that Berlin has consistently failed to meet.”Via FT

“On Thursday, President Putin created a new reality with his invasion of Ukraine. This new reality requires a clear response. We have given it,” Scholz said.

But of course the “reality” of NATO allies needing to carry their fair share of the security burden of Europe was obviously foreseen by Trump. This is yet another area, along with the European energy crisis playing out, where he’s been proven right, ironically enough. This after being scorned in Europe for years. But we won’t hold our breath for MSM pundits to admit this, even though it’s clear some European capitals are scrambling to belatedly enact what Trump called for years ago.

Scholz told parliament“We have to ask ourselves: What capacities does Putin’s Russia have? And which capacities do we need to counter his threats?” Parliament was gathered for an extraordinary session. “It’s clear, we will need to invest a lot more in the security of our country to defend our freedom and our democracy.”

“Putin wants to establish a Russian empire…the question is…whether we can summon the strength to set boundaries to warmongers like Putin,” the chancellor added.

“Dithering and weakness” are words it’s almost easy to imaging having come out of Trump’s mouth related to Berlin or others in past years, and now here’s how the political establishment perceives the situation: “Scholz had been widely criticized by opponents and allies alike in recent weeks for what they perceived as dithering and weakness in the face of Russia’s mounting aggression toward Ukraine,” Bloomberg describes.

It’s Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Baerbock who has been most out front in terms of urging Berlin to take a “180-degree turn in foreign policy” and that now is the “right moment”. In reference to the shock of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, she said: “If our world is different, then our politics must also be different” – also after Germany halted the Nord Stream 2 pipeline regulatory approval process and joined the push to target Moscow’s SWIFT access.

Germany also changed its policy of not sending its weapons to conflict zones. In a major reversal Scholz posted a statement online this weekend saying, “The Russian attack marks a turning point. It is our duty to do our best to help Ukraine defend against the invading army of Putin. That’s why we’re supplying 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 stinger missiles to our friends in the Ukraine,” he said.

end

Already cracks are starting to appear.  Also a 50% chance of a Russian default 

(zerohedge)

European EM Funds ‘Gated’ As Russian Default Risk Soars To Record High

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 12:05 PM

The cracks are starting to show as the effects of sanctions on Russia begin to filter through the rest of the global financial markets.

While US equities are rebounding, European banks are struggling to stage any comeback and under the surface the pipes are creaking.

As Bloomberg reports, JPMorgan Chase and Danske Bank were among asset managers to freeze funds with exposure to Russian assets amid a plunge in markets.

As JPMorgan write in a letter to investors this morning, the Emerging Europe Equity fund and wouldn’t accept any orders to buy or sell shares in the fund.

“Due to the escalating conflict between Russia and the Ukraine, local market trading conditions are not currently operating as they normally would do,” JPMorgan said in the letter.

We understand that being unable to deal in the fund is frustrating and we will take the decision to lift this suspension as soon as we consider it is in the best interests of existing shareholders to do so.”

“Frustrating” is right!

While not directly related, we do note that VanEck’s Russia ETF continues to trade, and given the recent correlation, the JPM EM EU Fund NAV would be dramatically lower…

And amid the utter lack of liquidity, forced selling pressure from redemptions could drive asset values even lower.

Bloomberg reports that more funds are expected to follow suit and shut their doors to redemptions.

Meanwhile serious stresses are starting to appear in the “plumbing” as Zoltan Pozsar warned over the weekend, with the ‘costs’ of finding dollar liquidity soaring…

And the market is now pricing in around a 55-60% chance of a Russian sovereign default, as 5Y CDS soars to a record high. IHS Market reports that 5Y CDS trades at 1200bps (up from a tumble to 573bps on Friday)

As we previously noted, the last time we saw this kind of volatility in the Ruble and Russian assets, LTCM was collapsing, and as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott warned this morning, something, somewhere within the global banking ecosystem will most likely inevitably “break” off the back of the Russian SWIFT exclusion and frozen Bank of Russia assets – potentially in the form of transactions related to the sprawling Russian commodities trade, perhaps with a European subsidiary of a Russian bank being unable to pay liabilities as these “knock-on” throughout the system.

end

Interesting:

Hungary forbids EU weaponry delivery to Ukraine across its territory.

Hungary forbids EU weapon delivery to Ukraine across its territory – Global Times

Inbox

Robert Hryniak4:19 PM (52 minutes ago)
to

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1253541.shtml?id=11

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA//UKRAINE/USA/EUROPE/MONDAY MORNING

Ukraine Frustrated At ‘Low Level’ Russian Delegation As Ceasefire Talks Kick Off In Belarus

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 07:31 AM

Update(7:52am ET)“We were ready,” said a Biden administration official of the series of sanctions and punitive measures it’s now hitting Moscow with. The latest in the below breaking news includes extensions of prior US announced actions being taken against Russia:

  • U.S. BANS TRANSACTIONS WITH RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK
  • SENIOR BIDEN ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL SAYS U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK WERE MONTHS IN THE PLANNING, ‘WE WERE READY’ U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO BRING ASSETS TO RUSSIA, OTHER SAFE HAVENS SINCE SATURDAY’S SANCTIONS ANNOUNCEMENT
  • U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS TODAY’S ACTION TO PROHIBIT TRANSACTIONS WITH RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK WILL HINDER RUSSIA’S ABILITY TO ACCESS HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
  • U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS COORDINATED ACTION WILL CAUSE WEAKENING OF RUSSIAN CURRENCY, MAKE FINANCING MORE DIFFICULT
  • U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS ALWAYS SAW RUSSIA’S $630BLN IN RESERVES AS INSURANCE POLICY, ACTION TODAY ‘REMOVES THAT INSURANCE POLICY’
  • U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS ACTIONS BY U.S., ALLIES WILL PREVENT RUSSIA FROM USING ITS DOLLARS, EUROS, POUNDS OR YEN TO DEFEND ITS CURRENCY
  • UKRAINIAN MEDIA: UKRAINIAN NEGOTIATING DELEGATION DEMANDED WITHDRAWAL OF RUSSIAN TROOPS FROM UKRAINE, INCLUDING CRIMEA AND DONBASS

And in another major announcement regarding Russian nuclear forces posture, Interfax reveals the following, though it’s unclear precisely what the designation means:

RUSSIAN NUCLEAR FORCES PLACED ON ENHANCED COMBAT DUTY IN LINE WITH PUTIN ORDER – INTERFAX QUOTES DEFENCE MINISTRY

* * *

In the fifth day since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, talks have kicked off between a Ukrainian delegation and Kremlin delegation somewhere inside Belarus at a precise location that’s being kept secret – though it’s somewhere along the border. The Russians have not sent anyone top level from the Foreign Ministry, instead its delegation is reportedly headed by an aide to President Putin and former culture minister named Vladimir Medinsky.

Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei in welcoming the Ukrainian leadership assured the group they are “completely safe” and that it’s Belarus’ “sacred duty” to ensure it. Initial photos have come out of the meeting, which President Zelensky’s office described as having the ultimate aim of achieving an immediate ceasefire and total withdrawal of Russian troops, however unlikely that remains at this moment.Image source: TASS/Reuters

“Dear friends, the President of Belarus asked me to welcome you and to provide everything for your work, as agreed with President Zelensky and President Putin. You may feel completely safe here. This is our sacred duty,” Belarusian FM Makei introduced

“President Lukashenko sincerely hopes that, during today’s talks, it will be possible to find solutions to all the questions of this crisis. All Belarusians are praying for this. Any proposals, in terms of organizing today’s meeting, will be considered and absolutely fulfilled,” Makei said. “We look forward to the results.”

Zelensky has described the talks as occurring with “no preconditions” while also noting they were unlikely to produce results. Additionally as Bloomberg describes“The low profile of the Russian delegation, at deputy ministerial level, further weighed on expectations of any breakthrough.”

The Ukrainian president said Sunday he “doesn’t really believe” there will be a breakthrough with the Russians, but expressed there could be “a chance, however small, to de-escalate the situation” – according to his words carried in regional media. Ukraine’s delegation arriving to talks by helicopter Monday. Source: BelTA/TASS

Heavy fighting continued Monday as the talks kicked off, particularly in neighborhoods on the outskirts of Kiev, and in the cities of Kharkiv and Chernihiv.

“They are fighting against everyone and everything alive, against kindergartens, against residential buildings and ambulances,” Zelenskiy said of the Russians in a Sunday statement, which the Kremlin rejected, saying it is only targeting military sites and movements. 

And as for weekend reports that Kiev had been surrounded, which was widely reported due to statements attributed to the mayor of the capital city, Zelensky’s office issued the following statement:  “Russians can only dream about it. Kyiv is completely controlled by the Ukrainian forces, arrivals to Kyiv are available. Yes, in some suburbs the confrontation continues, there were heavy battles. But we will not give up the capital.”

Meanwhile on Monday the Vatican has offered “to facilitate” dialogue between Moscow and Kiev toward ending the war, with Vaitcan Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin saying “there is still and always room for negotiation. It is never too late.” 

And in another breaking development, the United States as suspended the operations of its embassy in Minsk, Belarus – which also comes after this weekend the State Department began telling US nationals inside Russia to begin planning their departure given widespread European airspace closures around Russia.

end

RUSSIA

Russia doubles its interest rate to 20% to halt the rouble collapse and suspends stock trading on the Moscow exchange

(zerohedge)

Russia More Than Doubles Interest Rate To 20% To Halt Ruble Collapse, Suspends Stock Trading On Moscow Exchange

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 07:22 AM

With the ruble plunging overnight after the West imposed tough new sanctions over the war in Ukraine, crashing as low as 115 against the dollar with the USDRUB last seen just south of 100…

… early on Monday, Russia’s central bank more than doubled interest rates to 20% from 9.5% in an effort to halt the collapse of the ruble, which has gone into freefall. The Bank of Russia also said on Sunday that it would resume buying gold in the domestic market as it tries to shore up its finances and find ways around sanctions on its activity.

“External conditions for the Russian economy have drastically changed,” the Bank of Russia said in a statement. “The increase of the key rate will ensure a rise in deposit rates to levels needed to compensate for the increased depreciation and inflation risks. This is needed to support financial and price stability and protect the savings of citizens from depreciation.”

While the idea is that higher interest rates increase the return to investors, luring foreign capital to the country and pushing up the exchange rate, it is unlikely that investors will flood back into the “safety” of the ruble as long as sanctions are ongoing.

Overnight, the Russian central bank also banned brokers from selling securities on behalf of non-residents, with an eye to halting the decline in domestic asset prices.

In a statement on its website, the Bank of Russia said the foreign exchange, money and repo markets of the Moscow Exchange will open at 10 a.m. local time and that it will “evaluate the timely opening of trading in other markets depending on how the situation develops.” The decision will be announced by 1 p.m. Moscow time (7 p.m. in Tokyo), and trading will start at 3 p.m. if it decides to open.

At the time of writing, the market was still closed.

On Saturday, the U.S. and major European nations said select Russian banks will be removed from SWIFT, the key financial infrastructure banks use to send money across borders. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Sunday said Japan will join the sanctions.

As the NIkkei notes,, Japanese brokerages stopped accepting new buy orders for the ruble amid liquidity concerns. Traders Securities, which operates online foreign exchange services, said it expects difficulties in executing trades and providing rates, warning it “may be forced to close our customers’ Russian ruble/yen positions.”

Asian stock and currency markets were volatile in the morning as investors weighed new sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, as well as developments on peace talks between the two countries. Japan’s benchmark 225 stock index closed 0.19% higher after falling as much as 0.8% in early morning trading as investors weighed the sanctions as well as developments of potential peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. South Korea’s Kospi stock index opened slightly lower but ended 0.84% higher. The Japanese yen swung against the U.S. dollar, strengthening to around 115.06 to the greenback before weakening to 115.60.

Oil prices rallied in the morning amid rising concerns over supplies from the world’s leading oil producer. North Sea Brent futures on the London market, an international benchmark, rose to $105 per barrel immediately after the start of trading Japan time, about $7 higher than the settlement price last week.

end

This is big!!

special thanks to Kevin Wallien for sending this to us:

Kevin Wallien8:55 AM (13 minutes ago)
to me

The fuse is lit.

2022 UN COLLAPSE

 Support SouthFront

2022 UN Collapse

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that the UN could not ensure the arrival of a Russian delegation headed by Sergey Lavrov at a meeting of the UN disarmament committee and the Human Rights Council in Geneva.

The UN Secretary General referred to the fact that EU countries bordering Russia had already closed their skies to Russian aircraft.

Meanwhile, the UN is still formally the main international organization in the world and is obliged by its legal documents to ensure the arrival of a delegation of the founding country to the office of the UN headquarters in Geneva. Especially at this time of crisis.

The current situation is an expected consequence of recent trends in the UN. In recent years, the UN administrative and political staff residing in the U.S. and Western European countries has been under the complete control of the Washington and Brussels bureaucracies.

The UN Secretary General has turned from a “neutral arbiter of international crises” into a junior White House speaker, at the level of Ms. Psaki’s assistant.

Apparently, Russia’s opponents are simply afraid of Foreign Minister Lavrov speaking at the UN and making Russia’s point of view known to the world public.

The Russian media is blocked in the EU and the USA, Facebook gives out only Ukrainian flags when asked about the war in Ukraine, everything is happening clearly in line with the script of the genius Orwell, who foresaw this kind of thing decades ago.

The history of the UN, unfortunately, repeats the history of the League of Nations. World War III is becoming an almost inevitable event.

end

A must read//Tom Luongo on how we got here..

Tom Luongo…

Luongo: Putin Ushers In The New Geopolitical Game Board

SATURDAY, FEB 26, 2022 – 09:55 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

Up until February 23rd, 2022, the powerful countries of the world played a very rarified game.

Too many people try to analyze geopolitics like it is a game of chess.

Move, counter-move. Push a pawn? Threaten a knight, that type of thing. It’s easy to understand and makes for good copy.

In the past I’ve tried to liken it to a multi-player version of Go, with anywhere from four to 6 different colored stones on the board trying to take territory. It was a better metaphor but nearly impossible to describe adequately. In fact, at times, it was exhausting.

The reality is that neither of these metaphors are explanatory.

Because the only accurate model for geopolitics is actually Calvinball.

You know that game. That’s the one from Calvin & Hobbes.

Contrary to your memory of the legendary comic strip, there were rules to Calvinball that went something like this. Calvin got to make the rules up as he went along.

In geopolitics it pretty much comes down to whoever the strongest player got that power.

Here’s the thing. Up until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (and yes, it is an invasion, justifiable or otherwise) there was something called the ‘rules-based order’ promoted by mainly the US but also supported directly by the European Union and the Commonwealth.

The rules of the ‘rules-based order’ were simple. We make the rules, you follow them. We reserve the right to change the rules whenever we want to suit our purpose.

It was the geopolitical equivalent of Sam Francis’ idea of ‘anarcho-tyranny,’ which boils down to, “rules for thee, but not for me.”

We’ve heard the Russian diplomats complain about this for years. Why have these rules if they are not ever enforced?

As I point out all the time when talking about leftist ideologues purity spiraling towards self-destruction, we have these rules because only others’ hypocrisy counts. Sub-humans are not allowed to talk or even be a part of the conversation.

And in the world of diplomacy as practiced by the collective West, the Russians are definitely sub-human, just like the unvaxxed and now anyone to the immediate right of Karl Marx and isn’t a furry.

All that changed when Russian tanks crossed the border, stand off missiles hit anti-aircraft and artillery batteries, and marines came onshore in Ukraine.

For months we’ve been treated to the dumbest and most infuriating facsimile of diplomacy I’ve ever witnessed. It beggared belief listening to the nauseating virtue signaling of US ‘diplomats’ who refused to engage Russia’s concerns in even a half-serious manner while blaming them for every issue on the planet.

It was as clumsy as it was stupid, to quote Darth Vader.

It was clear that Putin and his staff would be given this ultimate option, invade Ukraine and face global opprobrium or kneel before Zod.

Their miscalculation was in thinking that Russia actually cares one whit about that global opprobrium at this point. By their actions in Ukraine this week, it is clear they are not.

They weren’t afraid of NATO’s posturing, Biden’s threats of sanctions or of Liz Truss’s difficulties with basic geography. The longer this standoff over Ukraine went on the more it was clear that most of the people in positions of power and their support staff have less than zero understanding of the parameters of their jobs.

Because of this their constant invocation of the ‘rules-based order’ rang more and more hollow since they were simply acting like a precocious six-year old boy playing with his stuffed tiger.

Pronouncements of consequences and ‘sanctions from hell’ and threats of holding our breath until we pass out were rightly ignored by Putin and his staff.

For decades NATO enjoyed the luxury, thanks to US military primacy, of making up the rules and forcing everyone else to react to them.

It goes back to the statement, most likely made by then Vice-President Dick Cheney, on the ‘reality-based community,’

That’s not the way the world really works anymore … We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do’

What’s been clear to me is that those placed in positions of power by Klaus Schwab and the rest of The Davos Crowd they still think we live in this type of world. That no matter what the people want or other countries need, they will dictate the time, place and parameters for any and all confrontations.

However, the longer this went on the more it was clear that Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, were inching towards that moment where they would change the rules. I wrote back in March 2018 that Putin’s State of the Union address where he unveiled new weapon systems was a major turning point.

For the next four years we have seen a steady escalation of neoconservative insanity in a vane attempt to push US missile systems closer to Moscow, contra to all signed international agreements, UN resolutions about resolving the breakaway republics of Ukraine and, frankly, common decency.

After a 2021 where things in Ukraine kept getting hotter and hotter, Putin and Lavrov, having backed Biden down over the summer with June 16th’s summit, knew the time had come to change the rules of the game.

If they didn’t Russia would cease to be.

The old game entered its spiral towards conclusion when Russia sent and published publicly its draft proposals for a new security architecture concerning Russia and NATO’s relationship in Eastern Europe.

Russia acted, setting the operational tempo from that moment forward. It forced the US and Europe to react to them as they created a new reality, set new rules.

The US was now the rule-taker rather than the rule-maker. You knew this because it prompted multiple rounds of scurrying to Moscow by officials from all over the West trying to talk the Russians off their new game.

To zero avail.

As The Saker pointed out in his initial thoughts on Russia’s recognition of the breakaway republics of the Donbass, this operation in Ukraine was a long time in the planning. This was not an action that was taken lightly.

Again, I will repeat here what I wrote above: this recognition should NOT, repeat, NOT, be seen in isolation. It is just ONE PHASE in a PROCESS which began at least a year ago, or more, and there is much more to come.

Truer words and all that.

For months I’ve been telling you that Nordstream 2 would eventually be turned on and that Russia would not be kicked out of the SWIFT telecommunications network regardless of what happened.

The former is still on the table, as Germany was the most vocal about not doing the latter.

Even I missed that Russia was planning to change the game this radically, thinking there was always a Davos-approved solution which didn’t involve extensive use of the Russian military, but still ended with the US looking foolish.

In retrospect, it was obvious we were always headed to this end-game because Russia saw the opportunity to change the rules.

Less than a day after Russia wiped out both Ukraine’s military power and political architecture, President Sundowner confirmed that all the West’s threats were as empty as the heads of the Millennials running the propaganda desk at the State Dept.

After months of threatening Russia with expulsion from the SWIFT financial messaging system, Europe complained and someone finally showed some sense.

Cutting Russia out of SWIFT would mean the end of the EU as anyone has known it or wishes it could be in the future. It would mean the end of the petrodollar system.

Russia is too systemically important to the global commodity trade that goes far beyond energy. It supplies not only the marginal barrel of oil and BTU of natural gas, but pound of nickel, palladium, titanium, enriched uranium and tungsten. It’s a major supplier of ammonium nitrate fertilizer, potash, and urea.

Do this and Europe not only freezes to death with their three days of gas reserves but starves once the global food supply is disrupted. Do this and Biden enters the mid-terms with $8/gallon gas, and 20% real inflation.

The Fed raising rates will be the least of anyone’s worries.

Russia held all the cards in the negotiations over Ukraine and we recklessly pursued a policy of insults and amateurish propaganda, refusing to believe Russia wouldn’t make her final stand.

By putting boots on the ground, planes in the air and missiles up the ass of every Ukrainian military installation across the country, Russia turned the ‘might makes right’ argument of the US and Europe on its head.

The game has changed because the rules have changed. It’s no longer a game of rhetorical chicken and virtue signaling.

Realpolitik doesn’t matter a bit when missiles are in the air. This is the point that was lost on so many in the professional commentariat for the past few months. They’ve never contemplated the idea that someone could do this, no less did it.

They are now confused and angry, working through their ‘cope’ in public. If it wasn’t so pathetic it would almost be hilarious.

For nearly a decade the West poured billions into Ukraine to arm it and prepare it for this week. Those billions were essentially wiped out in a matter of hours. It took a day to expose all of NATO’s posturing as nothing but that, posturing.

We now have to come to terms with this new game. It’s a game where the rules will be far more equitable because the unthinkable alternatives are no longer theoretical, they are real.

It’s real because the threats to Russia posed by NATO’s designs on Ukraine were always real no matter what was said.

So Biden and Davos got the war in Ukraine they’ve been begging Russia for. The problem for them now is Russia isn’t playing their game anymore and they are wholly unprepared for the next one.

END

EU/USA/Central Bank of Russia/Russian banks

The big announcement on Sunday:  the EU and USA agree to expel selection Russian banks from Swift and also they sanction the central bank of Russia

(zerohedge)

EU, US Agree To Expel “Selected Russian Banks” From SWIFT, Sanction Russian Central Bank

SUNDAY, FEB 27, 2022 – 08:14 AM

(Update 5:10pm ET): In the latest major escalation, late on Saturday European nations together with the US have issued a joint statement in which they announce the following restrictive economic measuresthings:

  1. Commit to ensuring that “selected Russian banks” are removed from the SWIFT messaging system: “This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally.”
  2. Commit to imposing “restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions.”
  3. Commit to “acting against the people and entities who facilitate the war in Ukraine” by taking measures to limit the sale of citizenship, so called golden passports, that let wealthy Russians connected to the Russian government become citizens
  4. Commit to launching “a transatlantic task force that will ensure the effective implementation of our financial sanctions by identifying and freezing the assets of sanctioned individuals and companies that exist within our jurisdictions.”
  5. Stepping up or coordination against disinformation and other forms of hybrid warfare.

EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen broke these down further as follows:

The full statement can be found here. It wasn’t immediately clear which are the “selected Russian banks” or what “restrictive measures” will be taken against the central bank. It also does not detail whether oil and gas payments will stop (according to Bloomberg’s in house energy expect Javier Blas, the answer is no).

Furthermore, as Blas also notes, the German government has said that the ban only affects the Russian banks that were *already sanctioned* a few days ago, in other words, it is toothless as it merely hits banks that have already been sanctioned by other measures. It also means that the SWIFT measure is being taken merely to placate populist anger at no SWIFT measures.

It also means that the only impactful measure is the sanctioning of the Russian central bank, which however has likely anticipated this eventuality and has built up a sufficient war chest to withstand even the harshest sanctions, either on its own or with the help of Beijing. Of course, this may come as a surprise which is the hope of the White House, which has stated that “having lost the support of the Russian Central Bank due to the sanctions imposed on it, the ruble will fall into free fall.

“Sanctions against the central bank are the last step,” Oleg Vyugin, a veteran Russian banker and formerly a first deputy chairman at the central bank, told Bloomberg. “It’s a formula tried in Iran, which initially results in the deepest decline in the economy, production, household incomes. And then a country begins to adapt, create its own settlements with those that agree to cooperate.”

As Bloomberg further notes, full blocking sanctions against some Russian banks should already choke off their ability to conduct dollar payments with U.S. counterparts even if they retain access to the global messaging service.

Banks can also resort to alternative systems and even communicate via email to send payment instructions, said Julia Friedlander, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

Still, “it’s like a kick in the shins,” she said. “Transactions with Russia would be slower and more expensive. A sudden cut-off will also hold a lot of current assets in limbo, for corporations and banks.”

As for specific individuals being targeted, the Biden administration has reportedly announced a Transatlantic task force to “hunt down and freeze the assets” of Russian companies and oligarchs — including “yachts, mansions, and any other ill-gotten gains that we can find and freeze.”

In response to these measures, Russia will need to address the population to ensure financial stability and lack of bank runs on Monday as the alternative could have devastating consequences for the Russian economy. Also, expect money-alternatives such as gold and bitcoin, to move higher as Russians scramble to reallocate their savings.

* * *

(Update 4:15pm ET): EU ministers together with the US will meet at 6pm on Sunday to draft potentially drastic new sanctions on Russia that could cripple its economy and financial system after initial penalties failed to deter President Vladimir Putin from stepping up the invasion of Ukraine. As Josep Fontelles, the EU’s chief for Security Policy tweeted, a virtual meeting of EU foreign minister will I discuss a package of emergency assistance for the Ukrainian armed forces, to support them in their heroic fight.

As Bloomberg adds, a meeting of European Union foreign affairs ministers on Sunday will mandate that work begin to cut Russia off from the SWIFT messaging system, after Germany’s government, initially wary of expelling Russia from the network, said it’s looking into ways to achieve a “targeted and functional restriction” of Russia (see below).

Germany is “working flat out on how to limit the collateral damage of decoupling from SWIFT in such a way that it affects the right people,” Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said in a statement. The U.S. is considering a similar move. And French President Emmanuel Macron has decided to increase economic sanctions, including action on SWIFT, against Russia in coordination with EU allies and the U.S., a senior Elysee official said.

Separately, the U.S. is also weighing sanctions on Russia’s central bank, a move which could have devastating consequences for Russia.

“Sanctioning Russia’s central bank is likely to have a dramatic effect on the Russian economy and its banking system, similar to what we saw in 1991,” said Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist for the Institute of International Finance. “This would likely lead to massive bank runs and dollarization, with a sharp sell-off, drain on reserves — and, possibly, a full-on collapse of Russia’s financial system.”

It would likely mean a run on gold and/or cryptos which could soar as billions in savings are converted into a currency that can not be suspended with the flick of a switch.

* * *

Earlier:

Following a full-court press by western nations, the handful of European holdouts – those most reliant on Russian energy supplies and continued Russian capital flows, such as Germany, Hungary, Italy and Cyprus – who have been adverse to expelling Russia from the SWIFT electronic payment-messaging system, are one by one folding on their objections.

Overnight, Italy joined the growing consensus seeking to kick Russia out of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication global banking system to punish it for the invasion of Ukraine as the European Union weighs up the impact of such an action. Also on Saturday, Poland’s prime minister said he had spoken again with his Hungarian counterpart, Viktor Orban, who had assured him of Budapest’s support for far-reaching sanctions against Russia.

“I talked today again with Prime Minister of Hungary V. (Victor – PAP) Orban. Once again he assured me of support for far-reaching sanctions directed towards Russia. Also including blocking the SWIFT system,” Mateusz Morawiecki wrote on Twitter.

Deputy Foreign Minister Pawel Jabłoński also said on Saturday he had spoken to Hungarian Ambassador Orsolya Zsuzsanna Kovacs and that “Hungary will not block any sanctions against Russia, also including concerning the SWIFT system.”

Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Saturday that Cyprus, which it was thought may have held out against the move, had confirmed it would not block the decision to withdraw Russia from SWIFT.

Finally, Bloomberg reports that Germany has “upended years of policy” and agreed to supply weapons to Kyiv and “look into ways” to shut out Russia from the SWIFT financial messaging system, which however is still a long way away from agreeing to expel Russia.

The German government said in a statement Saturday that it has agreed to the supply of 400 German-made rocket propelled grenades to Ukraine via the Netherlands, along with 14 armored personnel carriers, as well as 1000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles. It will also supply 10,000 tonnes of fuel via Poland. Further supplies to Ukraine are currently being considered, it said.

“After the shameless attack by Russia, Ukraine must be able to defend itself,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Vice Chancellor Robert Habecksaid in the emailed statement. “It has an inalienable right to self-defense.”

At the same time, the government “is working flat out on how to limit the collateral damage of decoupling from SWIFT in such a way that it affects the right people,” they said. “What we need is a targeted and functional restriction of SWIFT.”

The German statement indicates that Europe’s most important nation, and top importer of Russian gas…

… is still not on the same page as most of its other European peers realizing that an overnight cutoff of Russian gas (something which a SWIFT expulsion would spark) would lead to a crippling hit to the German economy, and instead is seeking a targeted SWIFT cutoff, which course is impossible for the “all or nothing” system. As for the well-known reasons behind Germany’s opposition Erik Meyersson, an economist at Svenska Handelsbanken, put it best: “The EU isn’t on board with removing Russia from SWIFT for one thing because the EU isn’t on board with letting go of Russian energy.”

In effect, the latest German statement is hardly surprising in light of what Germany’s finance minister said on Friday afternoon when he shocked more than a few marketwatchers by saying that ‘we are open to cutting Russia off SWIFT’ with a German government advisor telling RND that “banning Russia from SWIFT is manageable.”

And yet, despite the jawboning Germany is still unwilling (and unable) to pull the plug.

As a reminder, The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication is the financial-messaging infrastructure that links the world’s banks. The Belgium-based system is run by its member banks and handles millions of daily payment instructions across more than 200 countries and territories and 11,000 financial institutions. Iran and North Korea are already cut off from it, although that has not stopped China from buying millions of barrels of Iranian oil despite US sanctions.

Jumping the shark a but early, Ukraine president Zelensky said he was “grateful to everyone for the decision to cut off Russia from SWIFT”, even though such a decision has not been made (at least not yet).

Others followed suit, such as hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman, who said in a tweet on Saturday that any SWIFT action would likely result in a quick bank run in Russia:

“I wouldn’t want to keep money in a bank that can’t access the SWIFT system. Once a bank can’t transfer or receive funds from other banks, its solvency can be at risk. If I were Russian, I would take my money out now. Bank runs could begin in Russia on Monday.”

As we reported on Friday, Goldman Sachs’ Allison Nathan asked the question on everyone’s lips: “The removal of Russia from SWIFT – the global electronic payment-messaging system – has been referred to as the “nuclear option” for sanctions. Do you agree with that characterization?”

Eddie Fishman – the former Russia and Europe Lead in the US State Department’s Office of Economic Sanctions Policy and Implementation – responded in a fascinating way:

“No – it’s not even close to being the nuclear option… SWIFT is just a messaging service. If the US and Europe decided to cut Russians banks off from SWIFT without imposing full-blocking sanctions on them, they could still transact with US and European financial institutions – they just couldn’t use SWIFT to do so.”

Fishman went on to point out a potentially even bigger blowback consequence for the West’s actions:

“…and in a perverse way, that may actually increase the demand for SWIFT alternatives, such as Russia’s own System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS).”

And while a decision on SWIFT appears to still be pending, Ackman is certainly correct that is a bank run were to take place it would lead to a deep financial crisis overnight, and may be the reason why – in lieu of a SWIFT expulsion – the U.S. is reportedly weighing sanctions on Russia’s central bank, as Bloomberg reported citing “people familiar with the matter”, a move that would target much of the $643 billion in reserves that Russian President Vladimir Putin had amassed ahead of his invasion of Ukraine.

A final decision hasn’t been made but the Biden administration is urgently considering all options in an attempt to deter Putin from further devastation in Ukraine, the people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. The U.S. aims to make each move in conjunction with allies across Europe for maximum impact, they said.

While Russia has been steadily dedollarizing for the past 4 years, and reducing reliance on western foreign currency (while adding to its holdings of yuan and gold), the central bank still held 16.4% of its holdings in dollars at the end of June 2021, according to the latest official data, down from 22.2% a year earlier. The euro’s share was up at 32.2%.

A sanction on the central bank would be “devastating” for Russia, according to Tim Ash, a strategist at Bluebay Asset Management in London. “We would see the ruble crash.”

As Bloomberg notes, although the decision would be without precedent for an economy the size of Russia’s, the U.S. has previously sanctioned the central banks of adversaries. In 2019, the Treasury Department blacklisted the monetary authorities of Iran and Venezuela for funneling money that supported destabilizing activities in the respective regions. North Korea’s central bank is also blacklisted.

Losing access to funds abroad could handcuff Russia’s central bank as it tries to shore up the ruble in the foreign-exchange market by selling hard currency. The direct interventions, announced earlier this week after Putin ordered his military to attack Ukraine, mark the first time the Bank of Russia waded into the market since 2014.

Russia also kept 22% of its hoard in gold, most of which is held domestically and would be out of reach of western sanctions, while about 13% of the central bank’s holdings were in yuan.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is also debating whether to push for a directive from the European Union needed to ban Russia from SWIFT, though a U.S. and EU decision isn’t imminent especially with Germany still unable to fully make up its mind.

“It appears the Biden administration is gradually coming around to adopting the real hard-hitting sanctions that it should have imposed days ago,” said Marshall Billingslea, who served in the Treasury’s sanctions unit during the Trump administration.

END

USA/EU banks transactions with Russian Central bank and by doing this they freeze nearly half of Russia’s $630 billion in reserves

(zerohedge)

US Bans Transactions With Russian Central Bank, Freezing Nearly Half Of Russia’s $630BN In Reserves

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 09:27 AM

Following in the footsteps of Europe, on Monday the Biden administration banned U.S. people and companies from doing business with the Bank of Russia, the Russian National Wealth Fund and the Ministry of Finance. The moves by the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control will “effectively immobilize” any Russian central bank assets held in the U.S. or by U.S. nationals, according to a Treasury department statement.

According to the Treasury release, the U.S. also announced new penalties on a key Russian sovereign wealth fund, the Russian Direct Investment Fund, and its Chief Executive Officer, Kirill Aleksandrovich Dmitriev, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The announcements marked the latest blow in the West’s financial retaliation against Russia following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and are designed to shake an already staggering Russian financial system.

“The unprecedented action we are taking today will significantly limit Russia’s ability to use assets to finance its destabilizing activities, and target the funds Putin and his inner circle depend on to enable his invasion of Ukraine,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement.

The U.S. and EU blocks on the Russian central bank’s assets will immobilize nearly half of Putin’s warchest, according to a Treasury spokeswoman. Roughly 13% of the central bank’s reserves are held in China, she said.

Putin’s warchest is an estimated $630 billion in reserves, the officials said, and the measures are aimed at blocking his ability to sell those to mitigate financial pressure domestically. Russia’s own data published in January shows that $100 billion of the reserves were held in U.S. dollars as of June, however as Zoltan Pozsar noted overnight, there is over $200BN in swaps.

The US move comes two days after the U.S., U.K., Canada and the EU said they would block major Russian banks from SWIFT, take steps to stop Russia’s central bank from rescuing the nation’s economy and move to seize Russian oligarchs’ yachts and residences in the West. The U.K. Treasury said earlier Monday it will act immediately to stop people and companies doing businesses with the Bank of Russia, the Russian National Wealth Fund and the Ministry of Finance. The moves to isolate Russia from the global economy came after an initial round of penalties failed to persuade Putin to withdraw his forces from Ukraine.

In consideration for those European nations who remain hostage to Russian gas exports, the U.S. separately issued a license allowing certain energy transactions with the central bank, a carve-out a senior administration official said is aimed at minimizing the fallout in Europe and energy markets. Still, it will take time for Russian institutions to figure out how to segregate energy transactions from other measures, the official said.

Commenting on the US sanctions, former State Department staffer Eddie Fishman tweets the following:

it looks like these are essentially blocking sanctions. (There are technical differences, but the effect is the same—”any transaction” with the CBR is prohibited.) The CBR will be unable to intervene in FX markets to prop up the ruble, full stop.

The US directive also applies to Russia’s National Wealth Fund and Ministry of Finance. Consequently, the action renders ALL of the Russian government’s rainy day funds inert. It is comprehensive. (SOEs aren’t included, but their FX holdings aren’t nearly as large.)

This is a sanctions action without precedent. As a result, the specific consequences aren’t easy to predict with a high level of confidence. But the consequences will certainly be far-reaching. And it took a whole lot of courage for the US and Europe to take this step.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, the US is continuing to work with European Union partners to finalize the list of banks that will be cut off from the SWIFT system, a second senior administration official said. The list of banks will be finalized by the EU because SWIFT is under Belgian authority. U.S. officials are monitoring Belarus’s role in the Russian invasion, and that country will also face further consequences if it continues to aid and abet Russia, one of the officials said.

In response to the barrage of sanctions, the Bank of Russia acted quickly to shield the nation’s $1.5 trillion economy from the sweeping penalties, more than doubling its key interest rate to 20%, the highest in almost two decades, suspending equity markets and imposing some controls on the flow of capital.

The IIF’s Elina Ribakova made the following comments in response to the BoR’s actions:

Meanwhile, calculating the capital flight out of the domestic banking system, Ribakova writes that individuals took out $10 billion (1 trillion RUB) in case from the Russian banking system in just the past few days:

As reported last night, facing the risk of a bank run, a rapid sell-off in assets and the steepest depreciation in the ruble since 1998, policy makers banned brokers from selling securities held by foreigners starting Monday on the Moscow Exchange.

The ruble continued to plunge against the dollar, with the currency losing a third of its value in offshore markets at one point Monday, hitting an all-time low of 109 per dollar in Moscow before recovering some losses and was last trading around 98.

The announcements came as a Ukrainian delegation led by the defense minister began talks with Russian officials. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has voiced skepticism that the talks, taking place on the country’s border with Belarus, would yield results but said he was willing to try if it meant any chance of peace

end

Impact of SWIFT ban explained by Dr Lacalle.

Daniel Lacalle

The Impact Of A SWIFT Ban On Russia And The World

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 11:09 AM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) is the global financial system that allows immediate and secure transfers of money across borders. It is the web that verifies all financial transactions. It links 11,000 banks and institutions in more than 200 countries, with 40 million messages a day. Using SWIFT ensures that transactions happen in seconds in a secure way. Around 1% of those messages involve Russian payments, according to the BBC.

As part of the West sanctions against Russia, its banks have been banned from the SWIFT system. Additionally, the United States and the European Union have announced restrictions on the Russian central bank that block access to more than $600 billion in reserves. The Bank of Russia reports that only 22% of its international reserves are US Dollars, while gold accounts for 23%.

What does this mean? On the one hand, the move aims to block all options of the central bank to defend its currency from plummeting even more against the US dollar or the euro. In recent years, the Russian central bank has been reducing its exposure to US treasuries and shifting from US dollar reserves to euro and yuan, as well as gold. Access to those reserves is more difficult now, and in the case of euro and yen, probably close to impossible.

For Russian banks, the ban from the SWIFT system increases the risk of a bank run as citizens fear for the loss of their deposits and a collapse in daily operations, even if they start to use other alternatives.

However, we cannot forget there is an important impact on European banks as well. According to JP Morgan, European banks have up to $80 billion in claims with Russian banks. Being banned from SWIFT does not make these claims disappear, but if Russian banks fall into a de-capitalization process, the risks of defaults multiply.

Only three countries have been banned from SWIFT. Iran, since 2012, North Korea and now Russia, albeit partially. Oil and gas exports as well as other key commodities remain in the system.

Without SWIFT, Russian banks and the central bank are effectively blocked from operating on a global scale which means an added risk of a domino of defaults from issuers and the impossibility to conduct the most basic international operations.

However, Russian banks may bypass the SWIFT system and use other alternatives, mainly though a parallel system in China, called CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payments System), which facilitates transactions in yuan. According to CIPS, at least 25 Russian banks conduct yuan transactions through their system.

Using CIPS and other direct or indirect tools to bypass SWIFT has been an alternative for Iran and North Korea but does not solve the problem of access to reserves of the central bank nor does it truly mitigate the impossibility of conducting global transactions. The yuan is only used in 4% of global currency transactions according to the BIS (Bank Of International Settlements).

Russian banks and the central bank may moderate the financial blow using alternative systems, but the negative impact cannot be underestimated.

There may be a backlash for the United States as well. If other countries find that there is a valid alternative to SWIFT, they might feel compelled to strengthen ties with China.

Banning Russian banks from SWIFT may cripple many Latin American and Middle East economies that have deep financial connections with Russia, but there is a risk for the United States that the CIPS alternative, which is marginal at best today, grows rapidly.

The United States and Europe cannot fully ban SWIFT due to the importance of Russian oil, gas, metals, and wheat exports, and this may create numerous challenges that significantly limit the so-called “nuclear option”. The Russian central bank’s large gold reserves are also a differentiating factor compared to other economies.

No matter how we look at these sanctions, there is no doubt that there are unintended cross-border impacts and there may be unexpected negative consequences for everyone involved.

There is no doubt that the SWIFT ban is probably the most severe of financial sanctions possible and that there are no easy alternatives, but as time passes it is also clear that the widespread negative consequences of the Ukraine war will likely last for many years.

Will this measure accelerate a global financial shift toward China? Probably not in the short term, given the relatively modest use of the yuan compared to the importance of China in the global economy, but the ramifications of this measure in the global financial world are yet to be fully understood. A global financial transaction system remains as the undisputed leader only if it is truly global and far-reaching. The negative impact for Russia is unquestionable, but the long-term implications of this measure must be seen.

end

These Are The Global Banks With The Largest Exposures To Russian Sanctions

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 02:05 PM

Following Zoltan Pozsar’s blueprint for how the US/UK/EU sanctions unveiled over the weekend could lead to problems in the “plumbing” of the global financial ecosystem, we have seen several cracks appear already.

Dollar liquidity is drying up – and thus getting more costly – especially against the Euro…

And while both US and European bank stocks were clubbed like a baby seal today, we note that US bounced back modestly while Europe’s financials couldn’t managed much (despite the overall indices rebounding from deep losses)…

So, the question is – which banks are most exposed to the ongoing (and escalating) threat of sanctions on Russia?

Specifically, among other more arcane details, the sanctions relate to:

(1) freeze of assets,

(2) capabilities of certain largest Russian banks to process transactions and

(3) proposed ban of certain payment avenues (SWIFT).

While the Russian banks have been in freefall recently (most especially the sanctioned ones)…

In their latest report, Goldman Sachs attempts to calculate the exposures that US and European banks face to these threats.

European banks exposure

In assessing exposure to Russia we use data from the latest EBA transparency exercise (June 2021); we acknowledge that certain banks have disclosed more recent figures and that the aggregate picture may have changed since June 2021 – but we use EBA data for the purpose of comparability. This data shows that (i) overall Russia exposure of European (EU/EEA) banks is small at €66bn – this is equivalent to 0.25% of banks aggregate exposure amount, (ii) concentrated among three banks (RBI, SG and UCG) and (iii) the impact on these groups is diluted owing to geographic diversification (Russian exposure is <5% of group loans for all banks apart for RBI at 9%). The direct exposure is therefore limited, in our view.

The EBA data shows that the banks with the largest exposure to Russia are (as at 06/21):

  • UniCredit: Total exposure of €13.7bn (of which €1.2bn is Government, €12.6bn is Retail & Corporate) equivalent to 1.6% of total exposure.
  • Société Générale: Total exposure of €14.3bn (of which €2.5bn is Government, €11.8bn is Retail & Corporate) equivalent to 1.7% of total.
  • Raiffeisen Bank International: Total exposure of €14.3bn (of which €2.4bn is Government, €11.9bn is Retail & Corporate) equivalent to 9.3% of total exposure.

EBA data only covers EU/EEA entities and omits country exposure outside the top-10 for each institution – the bank-by-bank exposure disclosed accounts for 67% of the total Russia exposure (c.€22bn outstanding). We therefore cross-check EBA data with the latest BIS country-level disclosure (Q3-2021). The BIS data outlines exposure to Russia at $25bn for both France & Italy, $15.5bn for Austria, $6.6bn for The Netherlands and $3bn for the UK.

We expect much of the focus of current geopolitical tensions for European banks to be on (1) outlook for yield curve progression, e.g. potentially flatter yield curve and slower/later lift off of the rate hiking cycle and (2) impact potentially higher energy prices have on consumer behavior.

US banks exposure to Russia

US bank exposure to Russia is limited with only Citigroup that has any material exposure, at $5.5bn, which equates to only 30bps of total global exposure for C. This breaks down as follows: $2.3bn in ICG loans, $0.7bn in GCB loans, $0.8bn of unfunded commitments, $1.6bn of investment securities, and $100mn of trading account assets (as of 3Q21).

While other large cap US banks do not size exposure to Russia, disclosures provide their top 20 country exposures, and Russia is not on the list for any of them. Based on these country exposures, we know 4Q21 exposure is <$4.9bn for JPM, <$3.5bn for BAC, <$2.6bn for MS, <$1bn for WFC.

We believe the market will be more focused on broader second order effects, such as: 1) the impact of sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia and Russian commercial banks; 2) disruptions to payments and the possibility of technical defaults of banks that cannot use the SWIFT network; and 3) central bank policy implications.

Not good!

Russian TV Host Threatens Nuclear “Destruction” Of America

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 12:25 PM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A Russian TV host dubbed “Putin’s chief propagandist” has threatened the nuclear destruction of America and NATO countries, asking, “Why do we need the world, if Russia isn’t there?”

Dmitry Kiselyov made the comments on national television just hours after President Vladimir Putin put his nuclear deterrent forces on high alert.

“Our submarines can shoot more than 500 nuclear warheads,” said Kiselyov, adding, “This would guarantee destruction of the USA, and all other NATO countries.”

The TV host suggested that there was no point to life continuing on earth if Russia ceased to exist, asserting, “In accordance with the principle, why do we need the world, if Russia isn’t there?”

Kiselyov went on to hype the strength of Moscow’s nuclear arsenal, bragging, “Russia’s nuclear arms are delivered by the world’s fastest strategic bombers.”

“That’s without even mentioning Russian Strategic Missile Forces. The Russian nuclear potential is the strongest in the world.”

Kiselyov also savaged British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss for suggesting that Russia’s actions in Ukraine could spark a military confrontation with NATO.

“A conflict between Russia and NATO over Ukraine – nothing like this has been said before,” he said.

Yesterday, Putin ordered his nuclear forces to adopt a “special regime of duty” in response to what he called “aggressive statements” from NATO leaders and economic sanctions.

NATO representatives labeled the move a dangerous escalation, with secretary general Jens Stoltenberg responding, “This is dangerous rhetoric.”

*  *  *

Robert H on the current situation on the battlefield..saturday

Situation as of Saturday

Inbox

Robert HryniakFeb 26, 2022, 8:16 PM (16 hours ago)
to

Again, going clockwise can clearly see the race between the evacuating Ukie forces from the Donbas and the attempt by Russian forces to envelop them in an “operational cauldron”, exactly as i told you would happen. 

Next, Nikolaev is either fully surrounded or will be very soon.

So, what does all that mean?

It means that we are coming to some kind of informational climax here.  So far, in the West, that information is suppressed, very much like it has been in the gold and silver markets for ever. 

  • The operational cauldron in the Donbass to lock in the Ukie forces which did not have time to evacuate
  • The entire coast from roughly Nikolaev to Mariupol will be liberated soon 
  • Kiev will be if not physically surrounded, then at least “surrounded by fire”, which means that main axes of evacuation will come under steady Russian fire control.. forget new supplies it is all noise 

Notice  some cities in the Russian rear are circled in blue: Chernigov, Konotop, Sumy, Kharkov and Kherson.  I would add Mariupol to that list.  These are all cities which were cut of from the rest of the Ukie forces, but which still have pockets of resistance inside, that is especially true of Mariupol where a large Nazi contingent appears to be ready to take its last stand. 

The approach is to demilitarize the Ukraine without killing vast numbers civilians and rid them of the NeoNazi types who have been funded, armed and used by the West, while preserving certain information can be used against those people who have pillaged the Ukraine and Russia for a long time. It is the West that has pushed Russia to the wall where they have no choice but to act because it is the end of Russia if they did not act. There is no real difference to current actions as occurred over Cuba some 60 years ago. Russia went on this option in hopes of not having to go to the nuclear option first, which would have been the case if nukes were placed on Ukraine soil. 

People forget that  that Putin spent 1 1/2 years in Israel, so he knows is Israel well and its’ needs vs ambitions. And people forget that Russia and Israel are partners in the pipeline off Lebanon headed north to Montenegro into Europe. Nor do people acknowledge the great many people who live in Israel who have Russian and Israeli passports. No Turks are not happy about this but they are kept in check, and Israel needs the cashflow from that gas flow to be stable. This whole thing is about who controls oil and profits and whose military as a result is funded and protects the cashflow. Russia will not back down from the banking cartel in London ad elsewhere who wants the control. We are headed into a new COLD WAR unless someone goes over a line. The reality is that neither side will back down so we will live with real tension for sometime. And hopefully it is some time and does not go to nuclear war in the immediate future. 

There is so much criminality done in the Ukraine including the money washed  from Iran that the US sent there; and these folks will not hesitate to burn down the Ukraine in a cover up, including all those Ukrainians who assisted who will be conveniently killed in one way or another. Russia so far been very careful to trying to keep the informational evidence intact and the relevant people who can finger the city of London and others, at some point in the future. This is why the Brits are pushing as hard as they can to make all of Europe their cohort in stopping the truth from coming out. 

The biggest threat is the foolishness of politicians while the globalists are prepared to lose millions of humanity on the path, so have no doubt the stakes are high including the life of each one of us. 

And yes the fog of disinformation is in high gear because shortly it will not matter as things advance on the ground. People forget that Russia is well versed in liberating cities having liberated more cities than anyone i know of, including Chechnya which was not a cakewalk. And Yes 12,000 + Chechen forces are in the Ukraine or on the way to assist in cleanup and policing until local parties can take control. 

END

UPDATE FROM ROBERT H ON THE BATTLEFIELD:

The Ukrainian military was 80% defeated day one  with the air  force and navy destroyed in the 1st hour. That is why give out weapons like candy and release prisoners from jail and blow up bridges. Sounds like a wining team, or does it? 

The EU has closed most of its airspace to Russian carriers.

Russia has closed the  entire airspace to carriers from 36countries. Imagine the fuel cost of flying around Russia. 

The Ukies are doing two things at the same time: they are blowing up bridges and explaining that they have defeated the Russian attack and are now counter-attacking on all fronts (Note: blowing up bridges is not what a winning force does).

Ze has said that anybody in jail who is willing to pick up arms will be freed and armed.  As a result, gangs of looters are shooting each other in Kiev and other cities. Crazy business and it will only cost civilian lives. 

At the same time, a Ukrainian delegation and a Russian one met in Belarus.  They are still talking, but I don’t expect anything to come out of this, at least not in the early stages of these negotiations.

A wild card is whether Poland goes to invade the western portion of the Ukraine under the guise of assistance which is being encouraged by the Brits and Americans but not under NATO, just Poland. While it maybe interesting given history it will likely be a disaster longer term. 

Still, apparently the two delegation have agreed to “certain things” and have adjourned for the day.  I have no idea what that means, but I certainly do approve of ANY negotiations. And it will not stop the efforts underway but may shorten the fight aging lives on all sides. 

The Zaparozhie nuclear plant is under Russian control.  Thus, no false flag there and no false flag in Chernobyl, also under mutual Ukrainian and Russian control. 

The big story today is the gradual closing of the operational cauldron in the East.

Now the latest map:

The big story here is the gradual closing of the operational cauldron in the East.  Once it it closed, about 10-12 Ukie brigades will have to chose: surrender or die. It was discussed today in the peace talks with no conclusion. Once closed, if the brigades do not surrender they will be destroyed. It is up to Kiev to order the surrender it appears. 

As i wrote earlier  Kiev is blocked from three directions, but the Russians have left one open corridor which anybody can take to safely get out. And the civilians have been officially told by Russia to leave. This means there is a plan to take the city by force  if there is no surrender and to avoid casualties, civilians are being told to leave. 

Mariupol: the Russians have entered the surrounded city and fighting is taking taking place, to clear out those forces that refuse to surrender. Unfortunately, there will be civilian casualties as they are being used as shields and the Russians will take losses as well. Probably more than wish but there is no choice. 

Kharkov: heavy fighting taking place with both sides using artillery and MLRS.

Volnovakha: surrounded but the Russians are not storming the city.

Schastie and Novaia Astrakhan: have been liberated

The Russian Ministry of Defense spokesman has declared that Russia has air supremacy over the entire Ukraine.

The  US-NATO base in Achakkov has been totally destroyed by Russian missiles. I have idea how supposed supply of weapons from NATO is going to come when it is impossible by air or ground without Russian permission. 

And it is a complete mystery why this is NATO affair other than the march east is over. Hegemony is at the borders where it is and will not be expensed eastward.

END 

Russian Strikes Targeting US-Run Bio-Labs in Ukraine? – Era of Light

Inbox

Robert Hryniak9:07 AM (1 hour ago)
to

Why does the US need biolabs in the Ukraine?
No wonder they are destroyed, who knows what shit was being developed? We have seen the tale of Wuhan.

.

end

Canada/USA 

Vodka rebellion begins in Canada and USA bars

(zerohedge)

“Vodka Rebellion” Begins – Canada, US Bars, Liquor Stores Remove Russian Alcohol From Shelves

SATURDAY, FEB 26, 2022 – 12:30 PM

North American liquor stores and bars are pulling Russian vodka off their shelves in solidarity with Ukraine. 

On Friday, Peter Bethlenfalvy, Ontario’s Minister of Finance, directed the provincial’s Liquor Control Board of Ontario (LCBO) to remove all Russian vodka from stores. 

“Ontario joins Canada’s allies in condemning the Russian government’s act of aggression against the Ukrainian people, and will direct the LCBO to withdraw all products produced in Russia from store shelves,” Bethlenfalvy said. 

Fox News reports LCBO will remove Russian liquor and other products from 700 stores across the province. 

However, some people question LCBO’s move because “the inventory is already paid for. The LCBO is the only one who suffers while they store this paid inventory. The easiest answer is to stop any future purchases.” 

Some question if Canada is willing to ban Russian vodka imports, why not energy products?

Other provinces, including Manitoba, New Brunswick, British Columbia, and Newfoundland, are taking similar action. 

The Nova Scotia Liquor Corporation, which controls sales of alcoholic beverages across Nova Scotia, said Russian vodka has been removed from store shelves and website because of the “terrible events taking place.” 

Just south, in the US, some bars and liquor stores reportedly poured out Russian vodka onto the streets and or removed the products from store shelves. Fox News called it a “vodka rebellion.” 

“I think the whole world knows by now that Russia’s at war with Ukraine for no apparent reason,” said Jamie Stratton, owner of Jacob Liquor Exchange in Wichita, Kansas, told local news KSNW-TV. He removed more than 100 bottles from his store and poured some on the ground. 

“I guess this is our sanction … and this may be small, but every small thing makes a difference,” Stratton said.

There has yet to be a concerted effort by US state or county liquor boards to ban Russian vodka, just individual stores and bars/restaurants letting their emotions get ahead of themselves by dumping already paid for vodka into the streets as a protest. How does this exactly hurt Russia?

Here’s a novel idea: liquidate the current inventory of Russian vodka instead of wasting it and cancel future purchases. Then switch to domestic brands. 

Anyways, it appears a Russian vodka rebellion is underway and could spread worldwide if the movement goes viral on social media. 

end

Russia

Russia’s central bank now bans the selling of any Russian securities held by foreigners

(zerohedge)

Russia Central Bank Bans Selling Of Russian Securities By Foreigners

SUNDAY, FEB 27, 2022 – 06:11 PM

As the west piles sanctions upon sanctions seeking to crush the Russian economy, moments ago Reuters reported that Russia has made sure that at least those foreigners who have invested in Russian capital markets will have to stay for the ride.

According to Reuters, the Russian central bank – which the US and EU decided will be sanctioned and as a result all transactions will be banned – has ordered market players to reject foreign clients’ bids to sell Russian securities from 0400 GMT on Monday, according to a central bank document seen by Reuters.

Expect more retaliatory steps by Russia, including the weaponization of its energy exports as the tit-for-tat escalates to an unprecedented degree. And while Russia’s actions may be limited in scope in terms of how much damage they can inflict on the west, former NY Fed staffer Zoltan Pozsar has warned that even without direct action from Russia the markets may be facing an unprecedented crisis which approaches the Lehman weekend in scope, or as Bloomberg’s Nikos Chrysoloras puts it “We seem to be tailspinning into chaos. I have covered crises before, but nothing comes even close.”

end

Special thanks to Doug Cundley for sending this to us:

Russia faces major disruptions to oil and commodity flows without SWIFT

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-02-27/Russia-faces-major-disruptions-to-oil-commodities-flows-without-SWIFT.html

Russia faces major disruptions to oil, commodities flows without SWIFT

LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) – Russian exports of all commodities from oil and metals to grains will be severely disrupted by fresh Western sanctions, dealing a blow to Russia’s economy and hurting the West with a spike in prices and inflation, traders and analysts said.

The United States and its allies on Saturday moved to block certain Russian banks’ access to the SWIFT international payment system in further punishment to Moscow as it continues its military assault against Ukraine. read more

While some Russian banks – including Gazprombank, which services large oil and gas payments – have escaped full blocking sanctions, traders and analysts said the time it takes to switch to new systems will still mean major upheavals to flows.

The measures, which will include restrictions on the Russian central bank’s international reserves, will be implemented in the coming days, with officials saying some exemptions for energy were being worked out.

“While trying to exempt energy transactions, SWIFT can still cause significant disruption to energy trade flows in the near term, at least until buyers switch to alternatives like Telex or other systems,” said Amrita Sen, co-founder of the Energy Aspects think-tank.

“On other commodities – I can’t see how trade continues without the exemptions,” she said.

SWIFT, or the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, is a secure messaging system that facilitates rapid cross-border payments, transferring trillions of dollars a year in what has become the principal mechanism for financing international trade.

Russia produces 10% of global oil and supplies 40% of Europe’s gas. It is the world’s largest grains and fertilisers exporter, top palladium and nickel producer, third-largest exporter of coal and steel, and fifth-largest wood exporter.

The bid to exclude from the trading system whole chunks of the world’s 11th largest economy – and supplier of one-sixth of all commodities – has no precedent in the globalised age.

It comes as the West is struggling with record high energy prices amid galloping inflation.

CLARITY SOUGHT

At least 10 oil and commodities traders, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said flows of Russian commodities to the West will be severely disrupted or totally halted for days if not weeks until some clarity is established on exemptions.

“You can still use internal systems of international banks having branches in Russia, but it will be quite a mess,” said a banker with a large Western bank with exposure to Russia, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.

Some traders said while Russian banks that were still off the sanctions list, such as Surgutneftegasbank, could probably clear dollars, that did not necessarily solve the problem.

“Lots of companies will treat Russian oil as sanctioned and not touch it even if it is allowed,” said a senior executive from a major Western oil trading desk, also asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

“So it feels like maximum pain for the next two to three days while people work out what pathways are open,” he added.

Russian energy and commodity flows to Asia, especially to China, will likely continue.

Both China and Russia have been developing alternatives to SWIFT. Beijing has been encouraging the use of its homegrown alternative, known as the CIPS clearing and settlement services system, while Moscow has set up its own banking messaging system, known as SPFS.

Russian officials have said the country can re-route its exports to China in case flows to the West are disrupted. But analysts have said gas cannot be re-routed at all, while Beijing’s capacity to take more oil is limited.

end 

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE/EMERGENCY ACT/CANADA

VACCINE INJURIES/

Milan Sabioncello2:25 PM (3 hours ago)
to me

https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-the-israeli-data-that-nukes-the-pfizer-vaccine-what-did-pfizer-know-and-when-did-they-know-it#toggle-gdpr

VACCINE MANDATE

Montana Doctor Exposes the “Alt Doctors” Profiting from COVID by Promoting Fear

February 25, 2022 6:15 pm

Dr. Annie Bukacek from Montana recently gave an address at Liberty Fellowship, led by Chuck Baldwin. Dr. Bukacek is a board-certified internal medicine physician. She’s been practicing medicine for over 30 years. A video presentation she made at Liberty Fellowship back in April of 2020, where she exposed the fraud being committed on death certificates that were being manipulated to state the cause of death was due to “COVID,” went viral at the time. In Dr. Bukacek’s most recent address at Liberty Fellowship, she discussed her perspectives on the “Alt doctors” who last month held a rally in Washington D.C. to oppose the COVID vaccine mandates, and then met the next day with Senator Ron Johnson in a 5-hour session that was video recorded. These doctors and scientists who oppose the COVID vaccine mandates allegedly represent over 17,000 doctors, whom Bukacek refers to as the “Alt Doctors.” In describing these doctors she said: “Many are world renowned, highly credentialed, and highly published. The attempts to silence their dissenting views has been fierce. Such doctors are a necessary ingredient for returning to sound medical ethics, sound medical practices, people’s rights, and societal sanity.” I am not sure I agree with Dr. Bukacek that these principles are things that can be “returned to,” since from my perspective as a health journalist for over a decade exposing the corruption in the medical system, they were never present to begin with. But this presentation from Dr. Bukacek, from an insider perspective, is an important message today, because she gives us practical advice on how to evaluate these Alt doctor “authority figures,” by examining more what they do and what they do not state publicly, more than just what they do say in their opposition to COVID vaccine mandates. She states: “Eternal vigilance remains the price of freedom. We know from history, the thousands of years of recurrent, organized attempts to enslave mankind, that basic plan does not change, though the form of it might. I look through this lens when I listen to authority figures discussing COVID-19, because let’s face it, the infectious disease model of tyranny was highly successful the last 2 years, in part, because of the cooperation of doctors.”

Read More.

Official Government Data: Twice as Many Deaths Following COVID-19 Vaccines in 1 Year as Deaths Following All Vaccines for the Previous 30 Years

February 26, 2022 3:42 pm

The latest data dump into the U.S. Government’s Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) happened yesterday (2/25/21) and covers data through 2/18/2022. This data is supplied by the FDA and the CDC. Since December of 2020, when the COVID-19 vaccines were issued emergency use authorization, there are now a recorded 1,134,984 cases of deaths and injuries. There are now more reported cases of injuries and deaths following COVID-19 vaccines for the past year than there were following all vaccines for the previous 30 years before the COVID-19 vaccines were authorized. And there are now almost twice as many deaths recorded following COVID-19 vaccines in its first year than there were recorded in the previous 30 years before the COVID-19 vaccines were introduced. Why are we still doing this?

Read More…


New FDA and CDC Study Shows They Know COVID Vaccines are Causing Myocarditis in Children but They Refuse to Pull Them from the Market

February 26, 2022 6:12 pm

The FDA and CDC have admitted for quite some time now that the COVID-19 vaccines are causing heart disease in young people, particularly myocarditis and pericarditis. And yet they continue recommending injecting children with these deadly shots, stating that these cases are “rare,” and that the risk for these young people dying from COVID-19 is greater. The CDC and the FDA funded a study to determine just how serious the risks to heart disease were for young people taking the COVID-19 shots, and it was just published a couple of weeks ago in the Journal of the American Medical Association. I did a news search on Google and Bing to see how the media covered this study, and found nothing. The conclusion of this study stated: “Based on passive surveillance reporting in the US, the risk of myocarditis after receiving mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines was increased across multiple age and sex strata and was highest after the second vaccination dose in adolescent males and young men.” I wonder how many parents know that their own government is telling them that they are putting their children at risk to develop heart disease and destroy their lives, possibly even killing them, if they get a COVID-19 shot that is still being promoted as “safe and effective”? COVID-19 would not even make the top 10 list of diseases afflicting young people under the age of 30. But COVID-19 vaccine injuries would. If you allow your child to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, you are risking their life, and the potential of having to live with that guilt for the rest of your life. Listen to some parents who have already taken that risk, and are now living with that guilt.

Read More…


Can we Trust the “Conservatives” at CPAC on the Issue of Vaccines?

February 26, 2022 6:39 pm

Gateway Pundit is reporting today: “Dr. Ben Carson dealt a devastating blow to the left’s vaccine narrative during his speech at CPAC. Dr. Carson said that parents absolutely should be skeptical of vaccines for their children. He said it “makes absolutely no sense” to give kids the vaccine due to the fact they are at low risk of dying from COVID. He added, “we have no idea of the long-term effect of these spike proteins are going to be.”” But when he was serving under the Trump Administration when $TRILLIONS were given to Big Pharma under Operation Warp Speed to develop the COVID-19 vaccines, this is what he said: “Ben Carson, the U.S. housing secretary and former neurosurgeon, said Tuesday that Americans should feel comfortable getting a COVID-19 vaccine once it is introduced. Carson, in Iowa to highlight federal housing assistance for long-term senior care facilities, provided assurances that any COVID-19 vaccine that makes it to market will be safe, and that Americans should get the vaccine in order to help slow the spread of the new coronavirus.” And before that, while he was still a candidate running for the GOP nomination for President, he advocated removing the religious exemptions to vaccines: “Dr. Ben Carson, a prospective Republican presidential candidate, said Monday people should not be allowed to refuse vaccines on religious or philosophical grounds. “Although I strongly believe in individual rights and the rights of parents to raise their children as they see fit, I also recognize that public health and public safety are extremely important in our society,” Carson said in a statement to BuzzFeed News. Carson said diseases of the past should not be allowed to return because of people avoiding vaccines on religious or philosophical grounds. “Certain communicable diseases have been largely eradicated by immunization policies in this country and we should not allow those diseases to return by foregoing safe immunization programs, for philosophical, religious, or other reasons when we have the means to eradicate them,” Carson said in the statement.”

Read More…

Sorry Pro-Life Pro-Vaccine Christians – Novavax Allegedly Based on Aborted Fetal Cell Lines After All

February 27, 2022 3:03 pm

Last month (January, 2022) we published an article about the yet-to-be-approved by the FDA COVID-19 vaccine from Novavax, a company that in 2020 received $1.6 BILLION from Donald Trump’s Operation Warp Speed, which created instant billionaires even though the company to date has yet to produce a single product licensed for use in the U.S. Right Wing publications such as Gateway Pundit promoted the Novavax COVID-19 vaccine as a “Pro-Life” vaccine for Christians, and the Pro-Life Christian publication Lifesite News interviewed Dr. Peter McCullough who has also endorsed the vaccine. Even the corporate media has jumped on the Novavax vaccine bandwagon, as the Washington Post has stated that this is the vaccine that can win over “religious vaccine skeptics.” However, Sarah Quale, writing for the PersonHood Alliance has now reported that evidence from a private letter and Novavax’s own published study shows that the HEK293 aborted fetal cell line was used in the testing phase. This doesn’t mean that the PersonHood Alliance is opposed to vaccines however, as they, and Christians in general, are still very much pro-vaccine. They just don’t like vaccines developed from aborted babies, but they still want their vaccines. Here’s a novel and radical idea that Christians maybe want to consider: How about trusting God to protect you from future diseases instead of trusting Big Pharma? Oh no, they could never do that. Just think of the revenue they would lose in the weekly offering plate if they offended all the members of their churches who are employed by Big Pharma. After all, Franklin Graham has told the world that “Jesus Christ would advocate for people using vaccines.” By the way, any updates on how Mr. Graham’s health is these days since having heart surgery for pericarditis after getting the COVID-19 vaccines last year?

Read More…

Michael Every

on the major topics of the day

Michael Every…

Rabobank: If Putin Has Lost, So Have Markets

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 09:45 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The fight is here: I need ammo, not a ride

This will be a longer than normal Daily: we live in extraordinary times and a few extra paragraphs are needed to cover it. However, let’s start with the key point: Vladimir Putin has lost this war – and so have markets. The greatest risks lie in how much damage he is prepared to inflict on to attempt to deny that fact.

The ferocity of Ukrainian resistance is the polar opposite of the collapse of the Afghan government, which exited in jets filled with US cash. On Friday, as Bloomberg was reporting Kyiv would fall in hours, the US offered President Zelenskiy an airlift out. His response: “The fight is here: I need ammo, not a ride.” He is prepared to die for his cause, in contrast to leaders who won’t even risk a bad opinion poll. Zelenskiy’s people have rallied to him – as will a new foreign legion of volunteers from abroad. One Twitter meme doing the rounds is that “Kyiv is willing to consider NATO membership of Ukraine.” Any dreams Putin had of imposing a puppet regime, or of carving up and holding Ukraine, have been shattered by cries of “Slava Ukraini!” (Glory to Ukraine!).

Overall, the Russian military is performing extremely poorly: they still don’t have air superiority due to Ukraine moving its air defences around, and Russian missile strikes having only hit old, static targets. Russia’s attempts to rapidly seize Kyiv while minimising losses to Ukrainian civilians and its infrastructure are resulting in massive losses on their side. According to the Ukrainians, as of Sunday Kyiv claimed to have taken out: 540 IFVs, 16 airplanes, 18 helicopters, 102 tanks, 504 APCs, 1 Buk-1 system, 20 armoured cars, and 5,000 soldiers. The latter is a third of the total losses suffered in the entire Soviet-Afghan war (1979-89).

There are now reports of Russian conscripts looting or begging for food or fuel, which suggests supply chain collapse; of them pouring fuel away to not be able to drive on to Kyiv; and of mutinies. It seems the Russian army, despite lavish budgets, has rotted away below an elite tip due to corruption and yes-men needing to please the unwavering ideologue at the top rather than pointing out that things are not going well. If so, Putin’s profoundly anti-Western regime ironically displays the same institutional failures –and flawed supply chains– his fans in the West bewail as our own peculiar failure. Rumors are that Russia’s top general, Gerasimov, has been fired.

However, at time of writing Putin‘s troops were finally taking towns in the East and gaining key ground in the south, with new attacks apparently underway on Odessa. Moreover, there were fears Russia and Belarus would double down to try again for Kyiv, and/or to seal the Ukrainian border with Poland and Slovakia to stop supplies coming in from the West, which will raise the risk of clashes with NATO.

If Putin wants to win militarily he will have to get even more destructive; yet the more he does, the more Ukrainians and the West will resist. War is a continuation of politics by other means. There is no political means by which Putin can reintegrate Ukraine with Russia: he has irretrievably broken the ‘Russkiy mir’ (Russian world) he wanted to recreate. Some now start to fear Putin may decide if he cannot hold Ukraine then he will cause massive damage in order to punish it for its defiance.

Yet if Putin has lost, so have markets. The relief rally on Friday was due to two factors besides options covering: 1) Ineffective Western sanctions, as besides food and energy not being touched, the lack of seriousness was seen in Europe seeking carve-outs for the likes of Gucci and Prada (Italy) or diamonds (Belgium); and 2) The view Russia would win rapidly, exemplified by Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany telling the press ministers he had talked to told him “You Ukrainians have only a few hours left. There is no point in helping you now”. Yet Zelenskiy’s defiance undermines point 2 and has captured the Western public’s heart such that its leaders have now reversed point 1.

First, Europe has woken up from a 30-year geopolitical slumber. Ukraine will be resupplied militarily by NATO members and the EU – including sending military aircraft, and within hours. Previous holdouts like Germany and the Netherlands will send Stinger missiles. There has been a total reversal of the past 30-years of German policy: Berlin will raise its defence spending to more than 2% of GDP, put this in its constitution, and initiate an immediate EUR100bn defence fund, while building more LNG terminals and renewables to diversify away from Russian gas. Presumably other low-defence spending EU/NATO members will follow. Even Cold War neutral Sweden is sending military assistance (and Kosovo, like them and Finland, is considering NATO membership). In short, despite possible upcoming Russia-Ukraine negotiations, this war is far from over, and is likely to get uglier ahead.

Second, Russia is being removed from the global community, economy, and financial markets.

Culturally:

  • Russia is no longer wanted in the FIFA football World Cup, with other countries not willing to play against it, and has lost the right to host the Champions League final, F1 racing, and even the Eurovision song contest.
  • TV station Russia Today and Sputnik News radio have seen a slew of resignations and been banned from the EU, as well as demonetised on social media.

Politically:

  • Russia has been kicked out of the Council of Europe – prompting former President Medvedev to say it no longer needs diplomatic relations with the West and, chillingly, is now free to reintroduce the death penalty.
  • Kazakhstan refused to send troops to support Russia despite Moscow just having saved its regime from unrest.
  • We are seeing a wave of de-Putinisation, as previously sympathetic politicians scramble to revise their views. (Although in the US, where the atmosphere has been poisoned more by Russiagate, conservative commentator Dinesh D’Souza proclaimed in a binary choice of the liberal establishment over Putin, he would still opt for Putin.)
  • The UN Security Council will hold a rare emergency special session of the 193-member General Assembly on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine today.

Economically:

  • Russia already faces strict technology export controls.
  • Now the EU are refusing to export to or service Russia’s fleet of Airbus planes, which will soon see them grounded; the EU, and Canada, will not let Russian flights in; and Russia will not let Western flights through its airspace – so expect longer, pricier flights to hit freight and tourism hard, again. The train tracks from Russia to Europe via Ukraine have been dynamited, so no goods can flow. Trucking to Russia may be halted by Poland and Slovakia. The Black Sea is effectively closed, following a slew of attacks on civilian shipping. There was even a brief moment where it appeared Turkey would close the Bosporus to Russian shipping – it still can according to the Treaty of Montreux if it announces it feels threatened. Russian commercial ships are also being seized under sanctions.
  • A slew of oligarchs have been sanctioned, as have Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov. The White House has declared: “This coming week, we will launch a multilateral Transatlantic task force to identify, hunt down, and freeze the assets of sanctioned Russian companies and oligarchs – their yachts, their mansions, and any other ill-gotten gains that we can find and freeze under the law.”
  • Key energy exports are still being left untouched – but don’t think Russia may not turn off the gas as its own weapon.
  • The EU must be ready to expect more than 7m Ukrainian refugees, the European commissioner for humanitarian aid and crisis management, Janez Lenarcic, said after a special meeting in Brussels on Sunday.

Financially:

  • There were already US and EU blocks on certain Russian banks, and now there is a partial SWIFT ban for almost all Russian banks – although exactly which and over what time period is still unclear. This excludes energy trades, but reportedly many are walking away from contact with Russian oil in case further sanctions hit in the next few days. Effectively, lines of communication between Russian banks and the rest of the world, and Russia is being placed in the same camp as North Korea, Venezuela, and Iran.
  • BP is walking away from its 20% stake in Rosneft, taking a write-down of $25bn in doing so, and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is dropping Russian assets.
  • China, whose public has been pro-Putin on social media, is complying with sanctions so far.
  • The $620bn-plus in FX reserves held by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) are sanctioned too – meaning that apart from the gold and only partially-convertible CNY it holds, the vast majority are now unavailable. Even the gold is not liquid if nobody can use FX in exchange for it. There will be a complete collapse in the rouble today, with a 20% drop at the open and nothing to support it from that point onwards.
  • The expectation is runs on Russian banks and perhaps the worst economic and financial collapse since 1991, when the USSR was dissolved.
  • The CBR has already declared that it will not allow foreigners to sell Russian assets, so we effectively have frozen markets/capital controls, as we feared would be the case.
  • Belarus will also be sanctioned by the EU.
  • Even neutral Switzerland will sanction Russia.

So, we have the likelihood of a protracted war in Ukraine, including across the key grain ports of the south; massive economic and financial damage in Russia; spillovers into the real economy globally; a remaining risk that Russia turns off the energy taps; and finding out what being forced out of the US/global financial system really looks like – for the world’s largest nuclear power. A key tail risk is that a paranoid Putin will see this as the foreign interference he already stated would entail terrible consequences. Indeed, Russia’s nuclear deterrent was just raised, suggesting the nuclear blackmail flagged as a worst-case scenario on Friday – though Russian experts flag this only meant an increase from 1 to 2 in a 4-stage alert system so far. Yet Belarus has also announced it is rejecting its former non-nuclear status and will hence host Russian nukes, changing the regional strategic balance.

Even if one wants to look at just macro indicators, the German defense/fiscal policy shift is likely to have an important economic and monetary policy impact in line with the analysis we put forward in ‘Ich Bin Ein Berliner’(?) That is on top of the rising risks of the ‘Scenario B’ portrayed in our recent report on Ukraine (‘How we Would Pay for the War’): far higher inflation for far longer, and far lower growth – and against a backdrop where wage pressures are already rising and we are moving closer to ‘war economies’ -at least in rhetoric, though Covid spending hit the equivalent levels. Central banks were already stuck on the horns of a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t policy dilemma: the probability of either biting deflation or choking stagflation just increased – and that is not the primary concern for our leaders for obvious reasons.

Moreover, as the West gets back into the frame of mind for defense, decoupling, sacrifice, and self-reliance for its values, will it really end with Russia, or will it begin to *peacefully* extend to other potentially irredentist and revanchist powers to prevent any such future crises now? Markets really won’t like that.    

The initial market reaction at the start of the Asian open has been relatively moderate all things considered: Brent oil up 6%, Aussie 10-year bond yields down 10bp, and 10-year US 10s down 6bp, while S&P Futures are down 2.5%, the US dollar up, and EUR the under-performer among the G-10. However, there is a long, long way to go.

The fight is here: the West needed ammo, and it won’t give markets an easy ride.

7. OIL ISSUES

Democrats Demand Biden ‘Do Something’ As Pump-Prices Set To Top $4 “In The Next Few Weeks”

FRIDAY, FEB 25, 2022 – 06:20 PM

As Charles Kennedy writes at OilPrice.comU.S. gasoline prices are rising after the Russian invasion in Ukraine and could hit $4 per gallon, according to data from the AAA.

The average price per gallon of gasoline reached $3.57 as of Friday, according to GasBuddy data, after starting the week at $3.51. A year ago, the average price for gasoline was $2.65 per gallon.

“Russia is one of the leading oil producers globally, behind only the United States and Saudi Arabia and if they choose to withhold their oil from the global market, such a move would eventually be reflected in higher gas prices for American drivers,” AAA spokesman Andrew Gross said, as quoted by the Epoch Times.

The gas price increase to $4 could happen in the next few weeks, according to analysts, if the conflict continues that long.

President Joe Biden this week tried to quench worries about the security of energy supply, saying, “We’re closely monitoring energy supply for any disruption, and we’re executing a plan … toward a collective investment to secure stability in global energy supplies.”

The president also assured the public the White House will take steps to control prices at the pump, with Biden saying, “I want to limit the pain to the American people fueling at the gas pump … This is critical to me.” No concrete measures for reining in prices were mentioned.

Fighting the surge in gasoline prices will be even tougher today than it was last year when Biden released crude from the strategic petroleum reserve.

  • First, there is the tight global supply of crude, which has been fueling the price rally even before Russia moved on Ukraine.
  • Second, there is the fact that the U.S. is a major importer of crude oil and has a limited source of it because of its sanctions against Venezuela. As a result, Russia has become a major supplier of the heavy crude U.S. refineries need to produce fuels. Sanction action on Russia’s energy industry could interfere with Biden’s plans for reining in fuel prices at home.

[ZH: All of this has prompted Democratic leaders to panic (as we are sure their constituencies are also every time they have to fill their tanks), with U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) on Friday called for President Biden to release oil from the national stockpile and support legislation to suspend the federal gas tax in 2022 as he pushes to relive gas prices that rose after Russia invaded Ukraine.

“As Russia continues its unprovoked attack on Ukraine, the average price of crude oil could remain above $100 per barrel and push the price of regular unleaded even higher than it is now,” Kelly wrote in his letter.

Hardworking families cannot continue to bear the economic hardship of high gas prices while paying for more expensive groceries and medicine. Even before the crisis in Ukraine, Arizona families struggled with costs at the pump,” he continued.

So, this isn’t all Putin’s fault!!??

Perhaps Senator Kelly and his central-planning pals should have glanced at the following chart before suggesting more Einsteinian madness…

The strategic petroleum reserve has released over 75 million barrels in the last year and gas prices at the pump are up 70%.

But Kelly said in his letter “another release, especially if done in coordination with our allies and other nations, could help blunt rising oil prices and the corresponding prices that Americans pay at the pump.”

Because doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome is… well, you know.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

NEW ZEALAND

New Zealand continues its draconian vaccine mandate as the high court states that opposition has not demonstrably shown their breach of rights.

Doorknobs!

(Robert/EpochTimes)

New Zealand High Court: Vaccine Mandate Not “Demonstrably Justified” Breach Of Rights

SATURDAY, FEB 26, 2022 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Katabella Robert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The New Zealand High Court has upheld a challenge to a vaccine mandate for Police and Defence Force staff, stating that it was not a “demonstrably justified” breach of the Bill of Rights.Police stop vehicles to heading north on state highway one at Warkworth in Auckland, New Zealand, on April 09, 2020. (Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)

Justice Francis Cooke was asked by a group of Police and Defence Force personnel to judicially review the vaccine mandate enacted under the COVID-19 Public Health Response Act in December.

The mandate required all Defence Force personnel and all Police constables, recruits, and authorized officers to receive two doses of the vaccine by March 1.

But on Jan. 6, three unvaccinated staff who did not wish to receive the shots sought a judicial review of the mandate. They were supported by affidavits from 37 of their colleagues in the same position.

The group claims that two rights of the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act 1990 had been limited by the mandate: the right to refuse a medical treatment and the right to manifest religious beliefs.

Part of the group’s religious objections to the mandate were concerns over the fact that “the Pfizer vaccine had at some point been tested on cells that had been derived from a human foetus.”

According to UCLA Health, COVID-19 vaccines do not contain aborted fetal cells but Johnson & Johnson did use fetal cell lines when developing and producing their vaccine, and Pfizer and Moderna used them to test their vaccines to ensure they work.

The group claimed that “requiring vaccination by such a vaccine was in conflict with the religious beliefs of some of the affected persons.”

Cooke, in a judgment (pdf) released on Friday in New Zealand, did not accept some of the applicants’ arguments but agreed that the mandate “is not a reasonable limit on rights that can be demonstrably justified” and set the order aside.

I conclude that the Order does not involve a reasonable limit on the applicants’ rights that can be demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society and that it is unlawful,” Cooke said.

“The order limits the right to be free to refuse medical treatment recognised by the New Zealand Bill of Rights Act (including because of its limitation on people’s right to remain employed), and it limits the right to manifest religious beliefs for those who decline to be vaccinated because the vaccine has been tested on cells derived from a human foetus which is contrary to their religious beliefs,” Cooke said.Police arrest people protesting against coronavirus mandates at Parliament in Wellington, New Zealand, on Feb. 10, 2022. (Mark Mitchell/NZ Herald via AP)

However, he pointed out the court’s decision did not affect any other vaccine mandates or any internal vaccination policies of the police or Defence Force.

“In essence, the order mandating vaccinations for police and NZDF staff was imposed to ensure the continuity of the public services, and to promote public confidence in those services, rather than to stop the spread of COVID-19. Indeed health advice provided to the government was that further mandates were not required to restrict the spread of COVID-19. I am not satisfied that continuity of these services is materially advanced by the order,” he said.

Cooke also concluded that the mandate affected only a small number of personnel: just 164 unvaccinated personnel in a police workforce of nearly 15,700. For the New Zealand Defence workforce, the mandate affected 115 of its 15,480 staff.

“Moreover there is no evidence that this number is any different from the number that would have remained unvaccinated and employed had the matter simply been dealt with by the pre-existing internal vaccine policies applied by police and NZDF. Neither is there any hard evidence that this number of personnel materially effects the continuity of NZDF and police services,” the judge wrote.

The judge also said it was apparent, based on evidence, that the Omicron variant of COVID-19 was highly transmissible and could affect a large number of New Zealanders including police or Defence temporarily but that the termination of jobs arising from the mandate was permanent.

“Vaccination has a significant beneficial effect in limiting serious illness, hospitalization, and death, including with the Omicron variant. But it was less effective in reducing infection and transmission of Omicron than had been the case with other variants of COVID-19,” the judge wrote.

However, Cooke stressed that his decision to set aside the order was not for “the purposes of limiting the spread of COVID-19” but for “the continuity of service of police and Defence.”

But the order made in the present case is nevertheless unlawful and is set aside,” he wrote.

The applicants were awarded costs.

Associate Professor Helen Petousis-Harris, a vaccinologist at the University of Auckland told Stuff NZ that she was disappointed with the decision and that it legally and morally undermines the mandates.

“It’s really disappointing. These are temporary mandates. They are for the benefit of our whole community. Communities have always depended on our people cooperating and working together – right through time since we camped outside the caves. It’s an essential component of a successful society,” Petousis-Harris said.

“This isn’t working together. Right in the middle of a pandemic, it’s not in the spirit of trying to keep us all safe.”

Spokespersons for both Police and NZDF told The New Zealand Herald that terminations of staff who do not get vaccinated will be suspended while the decision is considered by the government.

The Epoch Times has contacted New Zealand Police and NZDF for comment.

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1203 DOWN .0055 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED    

USA/ YEN 115.52  UP  0.244 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3396  UP   0.0029

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 10.90 PTS OR 0.32%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 54.16 PTS OR 0.24%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.28%   // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED  

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED    

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN  54.16 PTS OR 0.24%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.90 PTS OR 0.32%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.68%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 50.92 PTS OR 0.19%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1908.20

silver:$24.35-

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 96.65  UP 34  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.02%  DOWN 9  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.185%  DOWN 2 AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.15%// DOWN 6   in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.76 DOWN 8    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 61 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.153% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.61% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1244  DOWN .0016    or 16 basis points

USA/Japan: 115.27 DOWN 0.010 OR YEN UP 1  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3414UP 47  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP 15 BASIS pts to 1.2670

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED )..UP 6.3093  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.3118

TURKISH LIRA:  13.87  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.185

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 9  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  1.881% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.221 DOWN 7 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.74  UP 12   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 31.21 PTS OR 0.42%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 89.51 points or 0.61%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 84.89PTS OR 1.26% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 6.20PTS OR 0.08%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 352.10 PTS OR 1.37%

WTI Oil price 90.84    12: EST

Brent Oil:  97.01  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:   95.07 DOWN   11.21 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 1131  BASIS PTS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.153

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1211 DOWN  .0048   OR DOWN 48 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3419 UP  .0053 or 53 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 114.93 DOWN 340

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2673 DOWN .0010 (CDN dollar UP 10 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 95.85

Brent: 97.99

USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.832 DOWN 14 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.166  DOWN 11  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.82

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA ROUBLE:  106.68 UP 14.00 ROUBLES (ROUBLE DOWN 1400 PTS)//

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE DOWN 166.15 PTS OR 0.49%

NASDAQ 100 UP 48.65 PTS OR 0.34%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 30.27 PTS DOWN 2.68 OR 8.85%

GLD: $178.38 UP $1.83 OR 1.04%

SLV: $22.62 UP $.22 OR 0.98%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Crypto Jumps, Stocks Dump’n’Pump As Cracks Appear In Global Financial System ‘Plumbing’

BY TYLER DURDEN

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 04:01 PM

It’s almost difficult to remember now, but February started with a lingering focus on the Omicron wave of the virus and the expected business interruptions that COVID was again causing. The virus has since faded in the US although it still has a very real presence in Asia.

The realization that inflation does not appear to be temporary and may be more persistent than recent past bouts of higher prices has also caused markets to increase expectations for the number of rate hikes that the Fed is likely to initiate in the imminent hiking cycle.

And as we exit February, Goldman’s Chris Hussey notes that attention is now divided between what the Fed will say (and do) on March 16th and how the situation between Russia and Ukraine will evolve. Against this backdrop of rising inflation, rates, and geopolitical risk, Energy and Materials outperformed again in February.

Most worryingly, cracks are appearing in the global financial system’s plumbing. The cost of dollar liquidity is suddenly rising fast…

Source: Bloomberg

Russian default risk has exploded…

Source: Bloomberg

The Ruble has imploded…

Source: Bloomberg

Can Vlad and his oligarch mates dodge these sanctions bullets?

Bank stocks puked with Europe hit harder than US…

Source: Bloomberg

Safe-havens were bid with bond yields tumbling, gold spiking (then chopped around)…

And crypto surging (Bitcoin tagged $42k)…

Source: Bloomberg

Equity markets traded chaotically but on the bright side, given it was the 55th day from the record high, we did not crash like in 1987 or 1929…

Source: Bloomberg

To quote one trader who was trading the last time the Ruble collapsed, “what a f**king day!” US equity futures opened down hard – giving up all of Friday’s gains – and then were met by the now ubiquitous momo ignition that somehow levitated Small Caps, then Nasdaq, then the S&P 500 (briefly) into the green for the day. Then… Russia-Ukraine talks ended around 1200ET (just around the time of the European market close) and things went south in US equities. The last hour saw a bid return, making some wonder if were seeing some rebalancing flows… The last hour was just insanely volatile minis swings in all the major indices, desperately trying to get back to even…Nasdaq outperfomed in the end (green like Small Caps) with the S&P and Dow red. Nasdaq swung 4% from its lows…

Tech was twatted on the month…

Source: Bloomberg

Inflation expectations accelerated in February, with US 5Y Breakevens hitting record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

As February comes to an end, 2022 has seen the US Treasury market suffer the 3rd worst start to a year ever…

Yields were higher across the curve in Feb with the short-end dramatically underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably the 10Y yield tried and failed numerous times to get back above 2.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

Real yields utterly collapsed today (10Y real yield dropped 20bps (catching up to gold’s recent rise)…

Source: Bloomberg

Forward inflation expectations suggest Ethereum has another leg higher to come…

Source: Bloomberg

The Nasdaq has seen the worst first two months of a year since 2008 (S&P worst since 2009).

It was an ugly month for most stocks with Nasdaq leading the charge lower, down over 12% at one point (and Small Caps somehow battling back to unchanged)…

Rate-hike odds were shocked higher by The Fed’s Jim Bullard then pushed lower by geopolitical chaos but while the odds of a 50bps hike in March dropped modestly (just 13% or so now), the odds of a 6th rate-hike in 2022 went up from around zero to over 60% (even with the recent dovish push)…

Source: Bloomberg

And at the same time, the odds of a rate-CUT (in 2024) have soared…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the month very modestly lower, after surging on the start of war but being unable to make any more gains since…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos managed modest (for crypto) gains on the month, thanks in no small part to today’s surge in prices following Putin’s ban on foreign FX transfers…

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all higher on the month with the geopolitical chaos of the last week or so sending Russia-specific assets (oil, nattie, wheat, aluminum) soaring the most. Copper lagged as precious metals also surged…

Source: Bloomberg

Brent closed above $100 today for the first since 2014.

Gold held above $1900…

Finally, the best news of all in February, COVID cases have collapsed…

Source: Bloomberg

So the only excuse The Fed has now is ‘geopolitical concerns’ – which in and of themselves will actually cause inflation to worsen!

I)LATE LAST NIGHT /MORNING TRADING/

END

AFTERNOON

END

II) USA DATA

Not good for the uSA:

U.S. trade deficit in goods surges again to a record $107.6 billion in early 2022

Feb. 28, 2022 at 8:38 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Trade gap hit a record in 2021 and is still climbing

The numbers: The U.S. trade deficit jumped 7.1% in January to $107.6 billion and hit a new all-time high for the second month in a row, reflecting huge American appetite for imported goods such as autos and oil.

The deficit rose from a revised $100.5 billion in December.

Last year, the U.S. posted the highest trade deficit ever. The goods deficit topped $1 trillion for the very first time.

Key details: U.S. goods imports rose 1.8% in January to $262 billion — also a record.

Exports of U.S.-made goods slid 1.8% to $154.8 billion.

Part of the unusually sharp increase in the deficit in the past several months likely stems from U.S. ports trying to clear an unprecedented backlog of goods that have piled up in nearby warehouses or on ships waiting to unload.

Also in the report, the government said retail inventories jumped 1.9% and wholesale inventories climbed 0.8%. Higher inventories add to gross domestic product, the official scorecard of the U.S. economy.

The increase in inventories is likely to spur Wall Street economists to raise first-quarter GDP forecasts.

Big picture: The already high U.S. trade deficit exploded to a record high last year as the American economy rebounded rapidly from the pandemic while other countries lagged behind.

The result: A surge in imports and a slower recovery in exports.

The trade deficit is likely to remain near record levels until the rest of the global economy catches up to the U.S. and starts to buy more American-made products and services.

The Russian war on Ukraine now threatens to delay the global recovery.

Looking ahead: “The deficit is likely to remain elevated as pandemic effects continue for now,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “But imports and exports should eventually rebalance once global economies come back online more completely.”

END

IIb) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATE STORIES

This should be a no brainer.

(Stieber.EpochTimes)

Growing Number Of Experts Call On US Govt To Recognize Natural Immunity

FRIDAY, FEB 25, 2022 – 07:00 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A growing number of experts are urging the U.S. government to formally recognize natural immunity, or the protection given by recovering from COVID-19.

More experts are arguing that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) recommended vaccination schedule should feature fewer doses—or none at all—for people who have contracted COVID-19 and survived.

“Natural infection should count as two doses,” Dr. Paul Offit, professor of pediatrics at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, and an adviser to the Food and Drug Administration on vaccines, told The Epoch Times.

Offit and two former FDA officials stated in a recent op-ed that “requiring people who have been infected to get three shots is overkill at best—a waste of valuable doses—and an unnecessary risk at worst (given that vaccines have side effects, albeit rare ones).”

Under current CDC guidance, all Americans 12 and older are advised to get three doses of the Moderna or Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines. The CDC defines fully vaccinated as people who get two shots of the Moderna or Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines, or the single-shot Johnson & Johnson jab.

The CDC’s guidance isn’t binding but is cited by companies and jurisdictions when imposing vaccine mandates. Many mandates force workers or residents to get fully vaccinated; others require a booster on top of the primary series because of waning protection. Few have exemptions for natural immunity.

Eric Topol, founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, wrote in a separate op-ed that the increasing number of studies showing how strong and long-lasting natural immunity is should prompt the CDC to redefine fully vaccinated in two ways: People who have gotten a primary series and not been infected should need a third dose, while those with prior infection should only need one shot.

Recent research on the matter includes a study funded by Johnson & Johnson and the U.S. government that found that previous infection alone provided 90 percent protection against moderate to severe COVID-19—the vaccine only provided 56 percent protection—and a paper backed by the CDC that found natural immunity was more protective than vaccination against the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2.

Some experts, such as Offit, push for what’s known as hybrid immunity. They point to papers that suggest that people who have been infected and go on to get a single vaccine dose are better protected than those with prior infection who remain unvaccinated, including a Cleveland Clinic study published earlier in February.

Dr. David Boulware, a professor of medicine at the University of Minnesota, agrees.

A transmission electron micrograph shows SARS-CoV-2 virus particles isolated from a patient. (NIAID)

Boulware said he worries that not everybody who contracts COVID-19 will generate an immune response. He helped with a study published in 2021 that had participants self-collect serologic samples. The findings indicate that people with more COVID-19 symptoms were more likely to show evidence of prior infection.

“For persons with prior documented COVID-19, they should receive at least one follow-up vaccine at three to six months after initial infection. For those with prior infection, two sequential vaccines in rapid sequence of 0, 21, or 28 days do virtually nothing immunologically, other than generate side effects. At present (based on current rules), I would recommend all those with prior infection to have a vaccine at three months after initial infection and then again after six months from initial infection,” Boulware told The Epoch Times in an email.

Top U.S. health officials such as CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky have acknowledged that natural immunity occurs but have repeatedly urged people to get vaccinated, even if they recover from COVID-19, with a full vaccination schedule.

Offit says he was among four people who were asked to share their views on natural immunity in 2021 with Walensky and other officials, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the longtime head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and the chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden. The virtual meeting, which took place after Surgeon General Vivek Murthy was confirmed by the Senate and before Dr. Francis Collins stepped down as head of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), didn’t lead to a shift in government guidance.

“I think it’s because the opinions were sort of generally diverse, so there wasn’t a clear, unified message that came out of that,” Offit told The Epoch Times.

One possible issue is how people could prove they’ve been infected and recovered, with suggestions including serologic tests.

The CDC, the NIH, NIAID, Murthy, Walensky, Fauci, and Collins didn’t respond to requests for comment. The Epoch Times has filed Freedom of Information Act requests for details on the meeting.

Other experts say the protection people with natural immunity enjoy is so strong that they may not or definitely don’t need any vaccine doses.

Dr. Robert Malone, who helped create the messenger RNA technology that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are built on, pointed to research that suggests that people with natural immunity have a greater risk of suffering adverse events after getting vaccinated as well as a collection of studies on protection from natural immunity.

“Over 140 papers demonstrate that—superiority of natural immunity,” Malone told The Epoch Times. “And furthermore, if you jab somebody after they have natural immunity, their risk of adverse events goes up.”

One recent study from Italian researchers found that people who recovered from COVID-19 had a low risk of reinfection and a very low risk of severe or deadly COVID-19. They said the risk-benefit of vaccine doses for the population should be “carefully evaluated.”

“From the point of view of the individual who recovered from a previous infection, vaccination will provide a very limited benefit, as his/her risk of a severe or lethal disease is extremely low, especially if she/he is young,” Dr. Lamberto Manzoli, one of the authors, told The Epoch Times in an email.

On the other hand, vaccinating the naturally immune “may still provide some benefit, because approximately 1 percent of these subjects may have a reinfection and therefore transmit the disease,” he said. “Clearly, their impact on the overall pandemic is difficult to quantify, and it is likely to be very scarce, but if we want to take a very conservative approach, vaccination may still provide some benefit. Importantly, we have to use the word ‘may’ because, as I mentioned in the manuscript, an in-depth evaluation of the risk-benefit should be made for these subjects.”

end

California Drops School Mask Mandate, Will Allow Unvaccinated To Unmask Indoors

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

MONDAY, FEB 28, 2022 – 04:40 PM

After allowing virtually everyone except the least at-risk demographic to participate in society without masks, California will no longer require masks in schools starting March 12, according to the Sacramento Bee.

The move comes as Covid-19 cases and deaths have plummeted precipitously to pre-Omicron levels, as the far-less deadly strain continues to make up virtually all current cases.

Earlier this month, the Golden State showered its residents with news that masks would no longer be required indoors for the unvaccinated – repealing a mandate that had been in place since December’s Omicron spike. Starting March 1, however, masks will only be recommended and not required for unvaccinated individuals indoors.

We’re guessing that keeping kids masked while letting adults galavant around the state bare-faced was just too much absurdity for even California. Yet…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1498377545523335174&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fcalifornia-drops-school-mask-mandate-will-allow-unvaccinated-unmask-indoors&sessionId=1fa9bcbd221406046a309309acf1a77bb42258c7&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

That said, masks will still be required for people in ‘high transmission’ settings such as public transit, emergency shelters, jails and prisons, healthcare facilities, homeless shelters and long-term care facilities, according to the Bee.

“California continues to adjust our policies based on the latest data and science, applying what we’ve learned over the past two years to guide our response to the pandemic,” said Gov. Gavin Newsom in a statement. “Masks are an effective tool to minimize spread of the virus and future variants, especially when transmission rates are high. We cannot predict the future of the virus, but we are better prepared for it and will continue to take measures rooted in science to keep California moving forward.”

The Golden State is updating its masking policies at the same time as Oregon and Washington state, though the changes are not identical.

Oregon will stop requiring masks in indoor public spaces in schools on March 12 as well. Washington will also lift its indoor mask mandate at that time, but will stick with its original plan to lift the school mask mandate on March 21.

“As has been made clear time and again over the last two years, COVID-19 does not stop at state borders or county lines,” said Oregon Gov. Kate Brown in a statement “On the West Coast, our communities and economies are linked. Together, as we continue to recover from the Omicron surge, we will build resiliency and prepare for the next variant and the next pandemic.”

California, Oregon and Washington are among only 13 states that still have mask mandates in place for classrooms, drawing ire from conservatives and some parent groups. Frustrated with state leaders, some California school districts have opted to forego the state law and allow students to choose if they want to wear masks. -Sac Bee

On Friday, Newsom announced plans to lift several other statewide orders issued during the pandemic.

iii) USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//

iii) USA economic stories

END

iv)swamp stories

end

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

Putin puts Russia’s nuclear forces on alert as fighting in Ukraine continues – CBS News (Desperate!)
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-invasion-war-putin-nuclear-forces-high-alert/
 
Furious Putin prepares to use ‘father of all bombs’ as brave Ukrainians hold up advance: West warns Russia could use terror weapon that vaporizes bodies… Thermobaric weapons – also known as vacuum bombs – are high-powered explosive that use the atmosphere itself as part of the explosion…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10552743/Furious-Putin-prepares-use-father-bombs-brave-Ukrainians-hold-advance.html
 
@veryvirology: Russian forces have been ordered to take Kyiv by Monday, by any means, regardless of the cost to human life
 
US Senator Marco Rubio, Vice Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, @marcorubio: Russian military leaders should think very carefully before following the orders they recently received.  Putin is 2 years shy of the life expectancy of a Russian male and you will spend the rest of your lives evading an international tribunal for committing his crimes
 
@oryxspioenkop: I’m trying my best to incorporate equipment losses of both sides as fast as possible, but the Russian Army is simply losing too much equipment for me to keep up. I’ve made lists for Afghanistan, Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh, but this is just insane. Absolute meat grinder.
       Ukrainian BayraktarTB2 (Drone manufactured in Turkey) strike on a Russian logistics convoy near Kherson. The drone strike appears to have resulted in the destruction of eight resupply trucks.  Oh, and Russia’s electronic warfare systems and SAMs have so far proven entirely incapable of shutting down the TB2’s operations, which continue to go on around the clock.
 
On Sunday, EU Pres. Ursula von der Leyen @vonderleyen: For the first time, the EU will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and equipment to a country under attack.  We are also strengthening our sanctions against the Kremlin.  https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497972564634882048
    First, we are shutting down the EU airspace for Russian-owned, Russian registered or Russian-controlled aircraft Second, we will ban the Kremlin’s media machine in the EU… Third, we will target the other aggressor in this war, Lukashenko’s regime (Belarus), with a new package of sanctions, hitting their most important sectors… we will work to prohibit Russian oligarchs from using their financial assets on our marketsPutin embarked on a path aiming to destroy Ukraine. But what he is also doing, in fact, is destroying the future of his own countryhttps://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1497973334847414278
 
@AFP: Sweden breaks with tradition and delivers arms to Ukraine: PM (5k anti-tank weapons)
(Denmark will sent 2700 anti-tank weapons per Reuters.)
 
Ex-Intel officer @MPPregent: Putin has never been closer to the threat of a military coup then now…
 
Is Putin suffering ‘delirium and confusion’ due to Long COVID? Questions arise over Russian leader’s mental state after rumours of cancer and Parkinson’s disease
‘During the fall, when Putin was absent from public view polls show Russian people were increasingly mistrusting their President, and the government overall. ‘Rumors spread that Putin was ‘paranoid”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10551251/Did-Covid-send-Putin-mad.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline
 
@AP: Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was asked to evacuate Kyiv at the behest of the U.S. government but turned down the offer. “The fight is here.  I need ammunition, not a ride.”
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelenskyy-boris-johnson-business-08f569df695831ee467979527ea2e241
 
@DLoesch: Zelensky stayed to fight a Russian army; Trudeau fled because a bunch of truckers honked.
 
Germany said it will boost defense spending above 2% of GDP in response to the Ukraine war, following years of contention with the U.S. over military budgets https://t.co/P581toUcj0
 
Handlesblatt’s @torstenrie surface-to-air missiles from Bundeswehr stocks to Ukraine to support the country against Russian attack. “The weapons will be delivered to Ukraine as soon as possible,” spox said.
 
Reuters: Germany changed its position on Saturday about imposing restrictions on Russia’s access to the SWIFT global interbank payment system
 
Dutch to deliver 200 air defence rockets to Ukraine -govt letter
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-deliver-200-air-defence-rockets-ukraine-govt-letter-2022-02-26/
 
EU, U.S. Agree to Disconnect Some Russian Banks From SWIFT
The move is aimed at Russian banks that have already been sanctioned by the international community, but can be expanded to other Russian banks, if necessary, according to a spokesman for the German government… the nations said they would act together to impose “restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions.”… https://www.yahoo.com/now/u-weighs-sanctions-russia-central-140320557.html
 
BBG’s @jeneps: The governments working to cut Russia off from SWIFT are working to determine whether there is a way to exempt energy transactions or if there are certain banks that conduct most energy transactions and could be exempted, a U.S. official says.
 
@M_S_Billingslea: Again, it appears that half-measures are being taken when overwhelming economic force is needed.  They are NOT putting full blocking sanctions on the Central Bank, & they are leaving Russian banks SWIFT-connected.  Meanwhile Putin seems ready to flatten Kyiv.
 
Wall Street Counsels Washington Against Kicking Russia Off Swift (Sell interest uber alles!)
Firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. suggested Washington stick with other types of sanctions to punish Russia for invading Ukraine, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private talks. Other banks with less international exposure were more receptive to the idea …
    Booting Russia from the critical global system — which handles 42 million messages a day and serves as a lifeline to some of the world’s biggest financial institutions — could backfire, sending inflation higher (explain how!), pushing Russia closer to China and shielding financial transactions from scrutiny by the West. It might also encourage the development of a SWIFT alternative that could eventually damage the supremacy of the U.S. dollar… (Each excuse is BS!)
https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/wall-street-counsels-washington-against-kicking-russia-off-swift
 
@JenGriffinFNC: Turkey’s Foreign Min: “We have come to the conclusion that the situation in Ukraine has turned into a war. We will apply the Montreux provisions transparently.” The 1936 Montreux Convention allows Turkey to cut off any vessel transit b/t Black Sea & Mediterranean during wartime.
 
Belarus ‘special forces loaded onto planes in preparation for major air assault on Kyiv’ https://t.co/Oao1SrA1Vf
 
European Parliament Member @RihoTerras: Does this look like a force that is prepared to fight an extended conflict? They have no fuel, no motivation, they do not even know where they are supposed to go!… Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin’s lair in Urals. Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy and everything would be done in 1-4 days.  https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038
    Russians didn’t have a tactical plan. The war costs about $20 bln/day… They lack weapons, the Tula and 2 Rotenberg plants can’t physically fulfil the orders for weapons… The next Russian weapons can be produced in 3-4 months – if even that. They have no raw materials. What was previously supplied mainly from Slovenia, Finland and Germany is now cut off.
   If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations…. Nevertheless, they are indifferent about the sanctions. Alpha Spec Ops have been near Kyiv since the 18th February. The goal was to take Kyiv and instal a puppet regime. They are preparing provocations against innocent civilians – women and children – to sow panic. This is their trump card.
    Russia’s whole plan relies on panic – that the civilians and armed forces surrender and Zelensky flees. They expect Kharkiv to surrender first so the other cities would follow suit to avoid bloodshed. The Russians are in shock of the fierce resistance they have encountered…
https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038
 
US military and intel officials thought Kyiv would fall early on Friday.  It did not.
 
Reuters: Russian troops have stopped near the northeast city of Konotop after suffering heavy losses during a fight, Ukraine’s land forces said. They have a problem with fuel and supply,” the statement said, adding there were cases of looting by Russian soldiers in local shops
 
On Friday, Putin asked the Ukrainian military to overthrow authorities in Kyiv.
 
@DAlperovitch: Putin articulated his ultimatums for Kyiv:
– Recognize Crimea as Russian
– Rejection of NATO accession
– No weapons supplies from the West
– LNR and DNR gain territory that the regions had pre-2014
 
Psaki Claims Biden ‘Didn’t Mean It’ When He said “No One Expected Sanctions to Prevent Anything” – “That’s not exactly what he meant”
https://summit.news/2022/02/25/psaki-claims-biden-didnt-mean-it-when-he-said-no-one-expected-sanctions-to-prevent-anything/
 
Key Fed inflation gauge (Core PCE) surges 5.2% (y/y) in January, biggest gain since 1983
Preferred Fed inflation gauge hit hottest level since 1982 (PCE Deflator +6.1% y/y)
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/federal-reserve-inflation-gauge-january-pce?test=aedaf50575f19da86e2e168307f2faa4
 
ESHs traded in negative territory during Asian trading on Friday.  They sank further during early European trading.  ESHs hit a low at 3:34 ET and then traded sideways until a rally commenced at 4:34 ET.  ESHs exploded higher when the US repo market opened and turned positive 50 minutes later.  After peaking at 8:48 ET, ESHs traded sideways until exploding higher at 10:20 ET.  By noon ET, ESHs had rallied 145 points from the low.  Someone was determined to drive them higher. 
 
St. Louis Fed President Bullard on Friday says he still wants the Fed to hike rates by 100bps by July 1 and the Russia invasion of Ukraine should not be an impediment to Fed rate hikes.
 
If Mr. Market thought that the Fed would refrain from hiking rates, why were bonds up only a tad and gold tumbled over 2% on Friday?  There was something other than ‘the Fed cannot hike’ at play.  When there is an economic squeeze on a US adversary, the US stock market becomes a matter of national security and highly symbolic!
 
ESHs plodded two handles higher by 12:36 ET.  The rally then stalled as new sanctions were proposed and NATO announced it would send weapons to Ukraine.  ESHs and stocks traded sideways thereafter with a modest uptick at the close.
 
@dwnews (13:08 ET on Friday): German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and top diplomat Sergei Lavrov are on the list of EU sanctions.
 
UK to impose sanctions on Russia’s President Putin (Friday 13:09 ET)
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60530065
 
NATO deploying Response Force for first time to counter Putin – NATO secretary-general warns: ‘This goes far beyond Ukraine’   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ukraine-invasion-nato-response-force
 
NATO to provide air defense systems to Ukraine and more weapons – Stoltenberg – 13:27 ET Fri.  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/nato-allies-to-provide-more-weapons-to-ukraine-stoltenberg-says/ar-AAUjn8v
 
Embarrassed that the EU and UK indicated that they would sanction Putin personally before The Big Guy would act and instead held a ceremony to introduce his SCOTUS nominee, Ketanji Brown Jackson, the WH told reporters that the US would announce sanctions on Putin later Friday.
 
Near 14:30 ET on Friday, the UK imposed a freeze on Putin’s and Lavrov’s assets.  The EU followed the UK and unanimously agreed to freeze the assets of Putin and Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov.
 
International banks halt trading in Russian stocks
JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, HSBC and UBS have all stopped trading locally listed Russian stocks… Spokespeople for all of the banks declined to comment…
https://www.ifre.com/story/3267851/international-banks-halt-trading-in-russian-stocks-mscqqyyvkj
 
ESHs and stocks resumed their trek higher, but the rally stalled after ESHs made new highs by 2 handles.  The rally halted on this: US microchip powerhouse Nvidia hit by cyber attack – Exclusive: Parts of its business are ‘completely compromised’ at time of Russian cyberwarfare against Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/25/us-microchip-powerhouse-nvidia-hit-cyber-attack/
 
An hour after the UK and EU sanctions were announced, the Big Guy was still MIA.  However, the WH issued this statement: 5:30 PM, The President and The First Lady depart the White House en route New Castle, Delaware – BBG’s @jeneps (Can you image the outrage if DJT bolted during a crisis?)
 
AP’s @ZekeJMiller (15:23 ET): White House: In the evening, the President and the First Lady will travel to Wilmington, Delaware, where they will remain over the weekend. (We’re not making this up!!)
 
At 15:28 ET, The WH released a statement attributed to Biden. It reiterated that NATO would defend every inch of NATO territory and concurred with NATO’s activating of defense plans.  It commended Ukrainians for their bravery; and said Biden told Zelensky that Americans support him (BFD, Joe!)
 
Psaki appeared at 15:39 ET to announce that the US would sanction Putin, Lavrov, and members of Russian security team – and it would provide specific details later.  What?!?!  When pressed, Psaki said the sanctions would include a travel ban!  BFD – Putin won’t be able to visit the US!  No other specific sanctions announced.  WHY???  (Video at link) https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1497315463054905351
 
Why didn’t Biden appear to announce sanctions on Friday afternoon?  There had to be a very good reason for his absence at this critical moment in history!  Joe appeared live to introduce his SCOTUS nominee; but could not appear live to announce personal sanctions on Putin!  Any national leader would crave announcing sanctions at this historic moment.  The regular weekend trips back to Delaware, especially with the biggest security crisis since the Missiles of October, must be for medical reasons.
 
@AFP: Moscow says sanctions against Putin, Lavrov a sign of Western ‘impotency’; Russia says relations with West nearing ‘point of no return’ (Buy more stocks; the Fed can’t tighten!)
 
US Treasury: The following individuals have been added to OFAC’s SDN (Sanction) List:
(Putin, Lavrov, Gerasimov, Shoigu) https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-sanctions/recent-actions/20220225_33
 
US sanctions Putin, Lavrov, Russia’s defense minister, deputy defense minister, and army chief.
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1497350271604830208/photo/1
 
About 20 minutes after the NYSE close on Friday, reports appeared that Putin and Zelensky were negotiating a time and place for ceasefire and peace talks.  Maybe Putin was the buyer on Friday!
 
The USDA reported 92 million acres of corn plantings; 91.8 million was expected.  Ending stocks were 1.965 million bushels; 1.3m to 1.803m was expected.  There was no news on wheat.  It appears traders and CTA funds are booking profits ahead of the weekend

.GOP @RepBice: Why are we purchasing nearly 600,000 barrels of oil a day from Russia when we have the ability to have affordable, reliable, & sustainable energy production in states like OK? American dollars should be spent here at home, not used to line the pockets of Russian oligarchs & Putin
 
@mattdizwhitlock: Every Republican should be hammering this point. Biden isn’t hitting Russia where it hurts — energy — because he let woke lunatics in his administration destroy our own energy production. Biden suspended oil and gas leases on THURSDAY. They aren’t serious about ANY of this.
 
WaPo’s @DanLamothe: Senior U.S. defense official was asked if the U.S. will now send Stinger missiles, man-portable antiaircraft weapons (which Baltic allies have previously, for the record).
Official declined to go beyond saying Javelins will be included. (Team Biden still appeasing Putin!)
 
How Moscow’s Man in Vienna Fooled Team Biden on Ukraine – Russia used the Biden administration’s obsession with a new Iran deal to distract from the Ukrainian invasion.
    The Biden administration has been willing to overlook in the interests of getting to some — any — nuclear deal. This interest will only intensify if it appears to be caught flat-footed and weak on Ukraine… https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/02/how-moscows-man-in-vienna-fooled-team-biden-on-ukraine/
 
On Sunday, daffy WH Press Sec. Psaki said Biden wants to reduce US dependence on foreign oil by using green energy, not by expanding US energy production.  This is precisely what hurt Germany.
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1497951427519467528
 
Reuters: BP said on Sunday it had decided to exit its 19.75 % stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine… the invasion “caused us to fundamentally rethink BP’s position.”
 
@ABC: A career-low 37% of Americans approve of Pres. Biden’s job performance, with 55% disapproving. (Usually, the cacophony of war drums GREATLY boost ratings!)  http://abcn.ws/3teI4oR
 
Ex-Fed & Treasury official Zoltan Pozsar (“The oracle of market plumbing”): “Exclusions from SWIFT will lead to missed payments and giant overdrafts similar to the missed payments and giant overdrafts that we saw in March 2020… The consequence of excluding banks from SWIFT is real, and so is the need for central banks to re-activate daily U.S. dollar funds supplying operations…”  Russian might sell gold.  Much more at link:  https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/content/credit-suisse-research/us/en/shorturlpdf.html?v=4Zjw-SO8-V
 
@DAlperovitch on Sunday afternoon: Mayor of Kyiv Klitchko reports that Kyiv is now surrounded making further evacuation of civilians impossible
 
Russian central bank orders block on foreign clients’ bids to sell Russian securities
https://www.reuters.com/business/russian-cbank-orders-block-foreign-clients-bids-sell-russian-securities-document-2022-02-27/
 
Today – There has been an enormous escalation of the war in Ukraine, including a nuclear threat. How far will the escalation carry?  For the first time in contemporary financial history, a major nation has been removed from SWIFT.  Russian’s huge forex reserves are now impaired   No one knows the consequences.  Uncertainty in the global financial system has soared.  Bank runs in Russia began on Sunday.  Do not play unless you must!  Be alert for afternoon February performance gaming! 
 
Will the force (or forces) that has assiduously driven ESHs be active?  PS – Russia in now mostly dependent on China!  What are the consequences?  Will China jeopardize its export markets in Europe and American to bailout the maniacal and nefarious Putin?  Will Biden speak?
 
While leaders of Europe issued condemnations of Putin and announced further aid to Ukraine over the weekend, The Big Guy has not spoken live about Ukraine since Thursday.  Is he preparing for his SOTY Speech tomorrow or getting some required ‘R&R’?  It seems that Putin threatening nuclear war is kind of a big deal that mandates some response from the purported ‘Leader of the Free World’!
 
Late Sunday afternoon reports say the US has finally authorized the delivery of Stingers to Ukraine.  Can you image if Ukraine had Stingers a week or so ago?
 
@TomFitton: Our corrupted, slothful, malicious, and mendacious intelligence agencies obviously presumed a quick and decisive victory for their Russian counterparts. Which helps explain why the West failed to timely provide sufficient materiel to Ukraine.
 
ESHs are -92.75 at 20:00 ET (-128.00 low, -2.9%); USHs are +1 15/32.  Oil jumped as much as 7%.
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4559; 100-day MA: 4573; 150-day MA: 4529; 200-day MA: 4461
DJIA 50-day MA: 35,296; 100-day MA: 35,383; 150-day MA: 35,237; 200-day MA 35,033
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4153.02 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4629.97 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD negative – a close above 4466.67 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4283.45 triggers a sell signal
 
Cramer 2/22 on Ukraine: “Their army is going to be overrun within the first two hours.”
https://twitter.com/CramerTracker/status/1498052654949404678
 
U.S. Officials Repeatedly Urged China to Help Avert War in Ukraine
Americans presented Chinese officials with intelligence on Russia’s troop buildup in hopes that President Xi Jinping would step in, but were repeatedly rebuffed.
    After one diplomatic exchange in December, U.S. officials got intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow, telling the Russians that the United States was trying to sow discord — and that China would not try to impede Russian plans and actions, the officials said…
    China is Russia’s most powerful partner, and the two nations have been strengthening their bond for many years across diplomatic, economic and military realms
    The ties between China and Russia appear stronger than at any time since the Cold War. The two now present themselves as an ideological front against the United States and its European and Asian allies… Hua Chunying, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said at a news conference in Beijing that the United States was “the culprit of current tensions surrounding Ukraine.”…
    Ms. Hua’s fiery anti-American remarks as Russia was moving to attack its neighbor stunned some current and former U.S. officials and China analysts in the United States… (Why were they stunned?)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/us/politics/us-china-russia-ukraine.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes
 
Ex-Thatcher aide @NileGardiner in response to above NYT story: Staggering misjudgment from the Biden administration. Amateurish, hopelessly naive, and downright stupid
 
How is that Team Biden did NOT realize, with Xi aligned with Putin against the US, that Xi would NOT act against his new BFF?  Remember the rumored agreement to not invade Ukraine during the Winter Olympics in China?  Xi and Putin have been colluding against the US for years; it’s been reported in all the papers!  What fools these Bidenites be!  Xi and Putin must have had a good chuckle at Team Biden’s risible entreaty to Xi to undermine Putin.  Insiders must be disgusted and humiliated with Team Biden to leak the story to the NY Times.
 
U.S. will continue to engage with Russia over Iran despite invasion of Ukraine -State Dept
(Why is Team Obama so desperate to make a deal with Iran?)
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-will-continue-engage-with-russia-over-iran-despite-invasion-ukraine-state-2022-02-25/
 
Here’s a bunch of German delegates laughing at Trump in 2018 when he warned they were becoming too dependent on Russian oil  https://notthebee.com/article/heres-a-bunch-of-german-politicians-laughing-at-trump-in-2018-when-he-said-they-were-becoming-too-dependent-on-russian-oil
 
On the eve of war, Tucker Carlson defended Putin. Now he’s backpedaling
https://news.yahoo.com/eve-war-tucker-carlson-defended-025451248.html
 
After downplaying Russia-Ukraine conflict, Tucker Carlson shifts his tone on Putin: ‘He is to blame’   https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/02/25/tucker-carlson-russia-ukraine-putin/
 
@DanielJHannan: It’s somehow symbolic of our age that Twitter has banned Donald Trump but not Vladimir Putin (@KremlinRussia_E). What were the grounds for banning Trump, again? Something about “the risk of further incitement of violence”?
 
Secret Service says it can’t find Hunter Biden travel records for 2010, 2011, or 2013
https://gazette.com/news/secret-service-says-it-cant-find-hunter-biden-travel-records-for-2010-2011-or-2013/article_b5a7b63a-53bb-5701-b3e3-0d4d4baf4611.html
 
CDC to ease masking recommendations for 70% of country, including inside schools
The updated guidance comes after weeks of pressure from governors and state officials who asked for a clear roadmap at the national level… https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cdc-ease-masking-recommendations-70-country-including-inside/story
 
Nasal Spray that is 99% Effective Against COVID-19 in its Phase 3 Clinical Trial – Now Approved in India, Israel, Bahrain, Indonesia & Thailand
The Canadian pharmaceutical company SaNOtize… and Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Limited (Glenmark), announced earlier this month the successful outcomes of a nasal spray in its Phase 3 clinical trials and now approved by India’s drug regulator as a treatment for adult patients with COVID-19 who have a risk of progression of the disease… https://djttracker.com/2022/02/25/nasal-spray-that-is-99-effective-against-covid-19-in-its-phase-3-clinical-trial-now-approved-in-india-israel-bahrain-indonesia-thailand/
 
NY Times journalist suggests media concern for Russian invasion of Ukraine demonstrates racial ‘biases’ – ‘1619 Project’ creator urges reporters covering Ukraine to ‘really look internally’
https://www.foxnews.com/media/nyt-journalist-media-russia-ukraine-racial-biases
 
@thehill: (Dem) @SenatorDurbin: “I’ve reached out to many Republicans, asking them to keep an open mind and to meet with Ketanji Brown Jackson, ask the hard questions, ask for materials – we’ll provide them. It’s in the best interest […] of the U.S. Senate for this to be bipartisan.”
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1498061060494004236
    @davidharsanyi: Durbin announced he would a ‘no’ on Amy Coney Barrett before asking her a single question. Schumer, and a bunch of Democrats, including members of the judiciary committee, did the same– and never even bothered to meet her.
 

END

end

Let us close out tonight with this offering from Greg Hunter interviewing journalist Daniel Estulin

Harvey Serious Global Pain as Economic Model Dies – Daniel Estulin 

Inbox

Greg Hunter via aweber.com Sat, Feb 26, 11:03 PM (13 hours ago)
to Harvey

Serious Global Pain as Economic Model Dies – Daniel Estulin | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdo

Serious Global Pain as Economic Model Dies – Daniel Estulin

By Greg Hunter On February 26, 2022 In Media128 Comments

Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

International best-selling author, journalist and counter-intelligence expert Daniel Estulin says the problems in the world revolve around the rapidly dying financial system and a “coming global bankruptcy.”  Estulin contends, “We are looking at $3 quadrillion or $4 quadrillion of global debt, and you are looking at the end of the Bretton Woods economic model.  We are at a critical stage for humanity that will determine the direction of the world.  There is much at stake for us but especially for the liberals because their model, which is based on infinite growth, is coming to an end.”

According to Estulin, the United States is in for hardship and poverty never seen before.  Estulin says, “This is the year for the United States.  A lot of things are going to be decided financially, economically, socially and with a president that should not be there.  The Democrats understand this, and that is why they are leaving in droves. . . . We are coming into some serious pain moments for the global economy.  The Russians are used to suffering and having to live on nothing.  You (USA) are not.”

How bad will this get?  Estulin, who is former Russian intelligence, says just look at what happened to the Soviet Union when it broke up in 1991.  Estulin points out, “Between 1991 and 1998, 26 million Soviet citizens died.  It was caused by starvation, depression, drugs, alcohol and all kinds of things.  Most importantly, it was because 40% of our countrymen lost everything that they saved over the history of their country. . . . In 1989, in the entire Soviet satellite space, there were around 500 million people in the Soviet Union.  There were only 14 million people living under the poverty line.  That’s 14 million out of 500 million people.  In 1996, just seven years later, these 14 million with the destruction of the Soviet Union, became 168 million.  So, from 14 million, it went up to 168 million people living under the poverty line.  The same thing is going to happen to the West and the United States. . . . This will be at least two times worse than what happened in the 1929 to 1933 period.  That means future generations are going to be infinitely worse off than my generation. . . . It means the standard of living in the West is going to be something they have never in their lives imagined.  The kinds of things coming to America and to the west is what you see on television.  You are talking about World War III zombies or some kind of other horrible things.  It is coming home because the United States is in the same position as the Soviet Union in 1991.  You have a President named Joe Biden who has dementia for goodness’ sake. . . this is a carbon copy of Brezhnev in the Soviet Union in 1981.”

Estulin also contends to deal with the so called “reset” and their dying financial system, the desperate globalists have no problem doing away with large chunks of the population or dramatically changing their DNA.  Estulin says, “The final stage for the liberals is the evolution of humanity. . . . In other words, the politics of post humanism. . . . The liberals (such as Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum) are praising the new possibilities of post humanism.  We need to understand what these people are going to do with us, and it’s in black and white.  It’s the fusion with a machine that will greatly enhance body strength, memory and genetic engineering . . . what these people want is immortality. . . . Any one that does not agree with this agenda, they are declared enemies of open society, and you get cancelled.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with best-selling author Daniel Estulin to talk about what is going on now with the “global bankruptcy” and “reset.”  These are just a few of the topics Estulin analyzes in great detail in his latest book 2045 Global Projects at War.”  (There is much more in the 54 min. interview.)

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

After the Interview: 

If you want to get a copy of Estulin’s latest book “2045 Global Projects at War,” click here.

To follow Daniel Estulin on Twitter click here.

Well that is all for today. I will see you TUESDAY night

8 comments

  1. Lawrie Williams wrote, “much as former U.S. President Trump seems to believe that the Presidency was stolen at the last election – another conspiracy theory easily disproven.”

    This seems to ignore the eyewitness reports of vote-tabulating machines’ being connected to the internet, arbitrary changes to the designation of voters to make them eligible, mailed ballots’ being fraudulently postmarked as if they had arrived by the election deadline, precinct windows’ being obstructed after Republican observers had been ordered to leave, Dominion voting machines’ being prone to manipulation for fraud, etc.

    Like

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