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comex notices/

March: JPMorgan stopped/total issued 3/30

EXCHANGE: COMEX CONTRACT:

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,942.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/01/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 03/03/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

118 C MACQUARIE FUT 6
365 H ED&F MAN CAPITA 3
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 2
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 17
661 C JP MORGAN 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 18
800 C MAREX SPEC 9
905 C ADM 2

TOTAL: 30 30
MONTH TO DATE: 3,681

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR Mar. CONTRACT:30 NOTICE(S) FOR 3000 OZ (0.0933 TONNES)

total notices so far: 3681 contracts for 368,100 oz (11.449 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

93 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 368,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 4188 : for 20,940,000 oz

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUMONGOUS CHANGE IN GLD INVENTORY//A DEPOSIT OF 13.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.38 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.32

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWALOF 198,000 OZ

FROM THE SLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 545.854 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS 6794 CONTRACTS TO 157,391 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND WITH THIS STRONG GAIN IN OI, IT WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH OUR STRONG $1.13 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $1.13) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN OF 9973 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 42.860 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S EFP OF 165,000 OZ //NEW STANDING 41.975 // V) HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS -238

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 2 days, total contracts: : 3724 contracts or 18.620 million oz OR 9.31 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1862 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 3724 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 18.620 MILLION OZ

LAST 10 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 18.620 MILLION OZ//

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6794 WITH OUR STRONG $1.13 GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2949 CONTRACTS( 2949 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR. OF 42.860 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 165,000 OZ EFP TO LONDON /// .. WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 9743 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 48.715MILLION OZ

WE HAD 93 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 465,000 OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG 12,313

TO 616,594 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -994 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

THE VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $42.60//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED A HUGE 16,868 CONTRACTS…

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MARCH AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S WHOPPING QUEUE JUMP OF 51,800 OZ//NEW STANDING 17.256 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $42.60 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 16,868 OI CONTRACTS (52.466 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 4555 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 616,594.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,862, WITH 13,307 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4555 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 17,862 CONTRACTS OR 55.56TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4555) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI (12,313,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 16,868 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MARCH. AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 51,800 OZ//NEW STANDING 17.256 TONNES /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION/. ,4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MARCH

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :

11,224 CONTRACTS OR 1,122,400 OR 34.91 TONNES 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5612 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 34.91 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 34.91/3550 x 100% TONNES 0,98% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 145.12 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 34.91 TONNES INITIAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 6794 CONTRACTS TO 157,391 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 4 1/2 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 2949 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 2949 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2949 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 7024 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2949 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 9743 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 48.715 MILLION OZ,

OCCURRED WITH OUR $1.13 GAIN IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.64 PTS OR 0.13% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 417.79 PTS OR 1.84% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 451.69 PTS or 1.68% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.28% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3173 /Oil UP TO 109.73 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 111.95 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3173. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3208: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER//

A)NORTH KOREA/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 12,313 CONTRACTS AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $42.60 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (4555 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4555 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , & FEB. 0 APRIL:4555 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4555 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED TOTAL OF 16,868 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4555 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A VERY STRONG COMEX OI GAIN OF 12,313 CONTRACTS..

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (17.256),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 17.256 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $42.60) AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE REGISTERED A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 55.56 TONNES OF TOTAL OI, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (17.256 TONNES)…

WE HAD –994 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16,868 CONTRACTS OR 1,686,800 OZ OR 52.466 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 225,091 ///FAIR

Confirmed volume yesterday: 236,486 contracts fair to good

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAR ’22 COMEX GOLD ///

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	8,134.2 oz brinks Int. Delaware 3 kilobars Brinks 250 kilobars Int.Delaware
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil
No of oz served (contracts) today	30 notice(s)3000 OZ 0.0933 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	1867 contracts 186,700 oz 5.8071 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	3681 notices 368,100 OZ 11.449 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

For today:

0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit nil oz

No dealer withdrawal 0

0 customer deposit

total deposit: NIL oz

2 customer withdrawals

i) Brinks: 96.45 oz 93 kilobars)

ii) Int. Delaware: 8037.75 oz (250 kilobars)

total withdrawals: 8134.20 oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 0//

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH.

For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 1897 contracts having lost 109

We had 627 notices filed yesterday so strangely on day 3 we gained a whopping 518 contracts or 51,800 oz will stand for delivery and these guys refused again to be EFP’d over to London. They must

be after a huge amount of gold on this side of the pond.

April saw a gain of 9028 contracts up to 461,646.

May saw its another gain of 19 contracts to stand at 38

June saw a GAIN of 2944 contracts up to 94,577 contracts

We had 30 notice(s) filed today for 3000 oz FOR THE MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 30 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2021. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3681) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR: 1897 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 30 x 100 oz per contract equals 554,800 OZ OR 17.256 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of mar.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:

No of notices filed so far (3681) x 100 oz+ (1897) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (30} x 100 oz} which equals 554,800 oz standing OR 17.256 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAR.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 17.256 TONNES (A WHOPPER FOR A MAR (NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

157,392.690, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 4.89 TONNES

123,963.792 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.86 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

262,049.904, oz JPM No 2 8.15 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware: 0..3810 tonnes

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold: 1,527,431.597 oz 47.50 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 32,596,997.938 OZ (1013.90 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,197,682.212 OZ (472.71 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,399,315.726 OZ (541.19 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,871,884.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 493.66 tonnes

END

MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,445764.8 oz JPMorgan CNT Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	335,219.629 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)	93CONTRACT(S) 465,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	4207 contracts (21,035,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	4188 contracts (20,940,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

I) Into Delaware: 335,219.629 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 182.807 million oz/345.363 million =52.93% of comex

ii) Comex withdrawals: 3

a)Out of CNT 705,976.420 oz

b) Out of jpm: 105,119.500 oz

c) Out of Manfra: 634,688.900

total withdrawal 1,445,764.800 oz

we had 1 adjustments//

dealer to customer JPM 24,935.940 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 82.404 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 345.362 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MARCH

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MARCH OI: 4300, HAVING LOST 3132 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.

WE HAD 3099 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY, SO WE LOST 33 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 165,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND

FOR DELIVERY OVER HERE AND THESE GUYS WERE EFP’D OVER TO LONDON…

APRIL HAD A 72 CONTRACT GAIN// CONTRACTS RISING TO 425

MAY HAD A GAIN OF 8850 CONTRACTS UP TO 128,060 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 93 for 465,000 oz

Comex volumes: 67,549// est. volume today//fair/

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 74,135 contracts (fair to good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4188 x 5,000 oz =. 20,940,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (4300) and the number of notices served upon today 93 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2021 contract month: 4188 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (4300) – number of notices served upon today (93) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month equates 41,975,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80//A MONSTER CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.38 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $42.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD UP $17.35//A HUGE CHANGE AT THE GLD: 5.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD// IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $6.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD UP $29.50: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP 414.60 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.70 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $27.20 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.60 TONNES//

FEB 4/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.59 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.95//A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.78 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.04 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $10.10//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.15//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.10 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $10.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $10.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN UNBELIEVABLE DEPOSIT OF 27.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1042.38 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.32 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 198,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.510 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ/

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 350,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.017 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.227 MILLION OZ

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.402 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.210 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLIONOZ

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THES LV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV/FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.143 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.218 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.430 MILLION OZ/

FEB 4/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILION OZ

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT539.212 MILLION OZ//

FEB 2/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.411 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS : NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 27/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.311 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ/

.JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.8 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 532.692 MILLION OZ//.

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 545.854 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: Russia Is The New “Excuse Variant” For The Fed

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 09:01 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has completely changed the market dynamics. In his podcast, Peter talked about the impact the situation is having on the markets and the global economy. He also looked ahead, saying Russia can now serve as a convenient excuse for the Fed to back off its planned monetary tightening. Of course, that will have consequences of its own.

Last week, there was optimism in the markets that the economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine wouldn’t be too bad. The trends that were in place before the invasion remained in place. But that shifted over the weekend with the US imposing far more harsh sanctions, including cutting off select Russian banks from the SWIFT system.

Of course, this has had a significant impact on the Russian economy. But it is also rippling through the global economy, hurting any company with any relationship with Russia.

Before the invasion, there was a rotation in the stock market. Investors were moving out of speculative momentum stocks and into value-oriented businesses that generate earnings and pay dividends. This was due to high inflation and the rising interest rate environment. Peter said what we’re seeing now is a correction in that trend. But he doesn’t think the trend is over.

While stock prices have gotten hammered. Commodity prices continue to rise. Oil rose above $101 a barrel on Tuesday.

Gold has inched higher but hasn’t broken out. That led to some criticism of the yellow metal. Critics say the fact that it hasn’t gone much higher proves that gold is losing relevance. It’s no longer a safe haven or an inflation hedge. Peter called this “a gift-horse gold-buying opportunity.

This is like a deer in a headlight. The price of gold, I think, is going to move in a major way. The only question is what’s the catalyst that’s going to spark the rise? But it is coming. And it is coming soon. And the people who are questioning why gold is not going up should just be buying gold right now with both hands.”

Looking at the broader economy, Peter said he thinks it’s pretty clear the US is heading toward a recession.

So, how will all of this impact Fed monetary policy? The markets seem to think the central bank will pivot back to a more dovish stance. In fact, they have already priced out two of the projected rate hikes for this year.

As the market is backing rate hikes out of its expectations – and I believe more hikes are going to get backed out as the situation continues to get worse for the global economy – that is also what is behind this correction in that trend where people are selling these real businesses that have real earnings that are impacted by Russian connections and a weakening economy, and they’re moving money back into the broken down momentum stocks.”

These tech companies don’t tend to be as connected to Russia. More significantly, people think they will go back up because the Fed is not going to hike as much as war originally anticipated.

Peter called the Russian invasion the latest variant that the Fed will use as an excuse to ease monetary policy.

First, we have COVID. Then we had the delta variant. And then we had omicron. The world is really getting tired of COVID. It’s COVIDed out. But the Fed needs another excuse. So, if it’s not going to be COVID, what’s it going to be? And Russia is the gift from heaven. This is exactly what the Fed needed.”

Peter said the Fed needed a way to save face. It needed a way to dial back the expectations of all these rate hikes. Or maybe even an excuse not to hike rates at all.

If it’s clear the US economy is headed to, or is already in recession by mid-March, will the Fed actually pull the trigger on rates? Will the Fed deliberately make a recession worse with rate hikes? Because if Americans are already struggling with surging energy prices and surging food prices, does the Fed really want to increase the burden with rising interest rates?”

A Fed rate hike would impact interest rates throughout the economy. It would push up mortgage rates, credit card rates and auto loan rates. That means more pain for the consumer.

That is a reason the Fed may not hike at all. Or if it does hike, it may indicate to the market that it’s one-and-done for a while. That it’s data-dependent. That it wants to see how the markets absorb that hike before it delivers another one. And, I think it’s the anticipation of this easing of monetary policy that is blowing some air back into these deflating tech bubbles.”

Peter said he doesn’t think easing monetary policy is going to work this time.

It may create a small rally, but it’s not sending the markets to new highs like we had under COVID because this time it really is different because we have a huge inflation problem that the markets can’t ignore.”

Central bankers and government officials have a new scapegoat for inflation – Russia. They will blame further price increases on the invasion.

It’s going to be an excuse to allow rising inflation. Just like they claimed it was transitory because of supply chain bottlenecks, well, now they can pull that transitory card out again. Only this time it’s because of Russia. The supply chain problems are now because of Russia and the Ukraine. It has nothing to do with the Fed. It’s got nothing to do with monetary policy. In fact, the Fed needs a more expansionary monetary policy to counteract the damage being done to the economy.”

Peter said he thinks the next step could be price controls and rationing.

I don’t see the Fed doing what Paul Volker did in the 1980s — not in the vulnerable position the US economy is now in. And that is why it’s different this time.”

Peter said we are at the end of our rope.

end

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James RICKARDS

-END-

A terrific read!!

LAWRIE WILLIAMS:

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Palladium price saved by sanctions on Russia!One of the side effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of severe economic sanctions on Russia by many countries, including virtually all of Europe, has already been seen in a strong rise in the oil price given Russia’s major position in global oil production. This will likely prove to be a stimulus to the global uptake of electric powered light vehicles (EVs), despite a corresponding rise in electricity costs. Even with electricity being more expensive, EVs – particularly battery-powered ones (BEVs) – will remain cheaper to run than petrol (gasoline)-powered vehicles and this will almost certainly stimulate BEV take-up as ever-improving battery technology, and increasing access to charging points, makes range anxiety somewhat less of a problem in terms of adversely affecting BEV purchasing decisions.We had always been rather dubious, accordingly, about the future price prospects for palladium, but the current situation has changed our views substantially, and almost overnight. The short term effects of the Russian invasion have been very positive for the metal price. Palladium demand had largely been dependent on its uptake as a primary catalyst in internal combustion engine driven light vehicle exhaust emission control systems. The downturn in the new vehicle market because of computer chip shortages had been having an initially adverse impact on palladium demand in consequence. But there has now been a very substantial palladium price recovery over the past week or so as Russian sanctions have been implemented.BEV take-up has also not been nearly as advanced in the huge U.S. market as in other key markets like Europe and China. But now, high gasoline prices may thus force the U.S. market to turn around, but even so, with the onset of Russian sanctions this may not prove to be that adverse for the palladium price. There is also the assumption that the new automobile market should be taking off again now Covid- related infections and restrictions seem to be easing which will enhance sales for conventionally powered vehicles already in the pipeline.Even so, ever-rising inflation, which is likely to be boosted in particular by increasing energy prices, will be curtailing household budgets which could, on their own, lead to reduced new vehicle sales. Add to this a potential boost to BEV sales and the medium to long term outlook for palladium demand for exhaust emission control systems could well be reduced – perhaps quite substantially which does not bode well for prices going forwards long term. But short term the palladium market has received a huge boost from the potential effects on Russian supplies.High demand and tight supply had been keeping palladium prices elevated given the metal had been in a severe supply deficit situation. That supply deficit had been falling away until now and production had appeared to be moving towards a surplus which would have potentially decimated prices – particularly so if BEV take-up was starting to eat into traditional petrol (gasoline) driven vehicle markets. But the economic sanctions on Russia may have put perhaps a temporary end to that.Many key markets, though, have been instituting bans on the manufacture and sale of internal combustion engine light vehicles to take place at some time in the future. Such a ban is already in place in Norway which has been a leader in the field. All this had been putting a dent in likely long term palladium demand, but perhaps not now.Many automobile manufacturers seem to be embracing the move to EVs with a switchover to the manufacture and sale of electric powered vehicles as they see that this is the direction in which the markets are moving and they don’t want to be left behind. However it may still take some years before this kind of replacement of the internal combustion engine is completely phased out and palladium will retain an important, but perhaps diminishing, role in the market until this occurs.Meanwhile, though, the palladium price is seeing something of a huge boost as economic sanctions against Russia (the world’s largest producer of the metal accounting for over half of global supply) begin to take effect. If Russian palladium is removed from the market it will likely swing back into a severe palladium supply deficit situation again and we are already seeing initial signs of this with some very sharp price increases for the metal since Russia’s Ukraine invasion commenced.We had earlier been predicting that the platinum price might catch up with that of palladium perhaps this year but the Russian sanctions situation may well have changed all this substantially if the global palladium supply chain is thus severely interrupted. If this is indeed the case then our earlier warnings about palladium price deterioration could well be delayed quite substantially. We would thus revise our earlier year-end palladium price forecast hugely from a rather pessimistic $1,350 an ounce, down from the current level of around $2,500, up to $3,000 an ounce if the Russian sanctions stay in place, which we think they will. This would be quite a change in our expectations and move palladium from the bottom to the top of our precious metals price growth predictions for the current year. This all demonstrates how geopolitical events can change the market and pricing picture almost overnight!

02 Mar 2022 |-END-

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

This is a must read. We brought this to your attention yesterday but it is worth repeating

Ronan Manly/GATA

Ronan Manly: LBMA quietly expels its two Russian bank members

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-03-01 09:56Section: Daily Dispatches

9:56a ET Tuesday, March 1, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star researcher Ronan Manly reports that the London Bullion Market Association has quietly expelled its two Russian bank members. Manly adds that Western economic sanctions against Russia may impair the tradability of “London good delivery” gold bars produced by Russian refiners and purchased long before sanctions were imposed.

Manly’s report is headlined “LBMA a Deer in Headlights as Western Sanctions Show Up Russian Gold Refiners” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/lbma-a-deer-in-headlights-as-western-sanctions-show-up-russian-gold-refiners/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

A must view:

(Craig Hemke/Sprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Gold’s rise is more than a war premium

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-03-01 21:15Section: Daily Dispatches

By Craig Hemke
Sprott Money, Toronto
Tuesday, March 1, 2022

As anyone who has watched the precious metals for any amount of time will tell you, price rallies on geopolitical concerns rarely hold. The same might be true today. However, do not make the mistake of thinking that the current rally in gold and silver is based solely upon geopolitics. There’s a lot more going on at present, and those drivers will persist regardless of the outcome of the Ukraine crisis.

So let’s just take a few minutes today to consider what is driving prices and then assess where prices may head from here. Yes, the crisis in Ukraine is building a “war premium” into the price of Comex gold, and this premium will persist for as long as the conflict continues.

But the long-term effects of the hostilities are myriad and currently unmeasurable. Yes, the exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT system that we wrote about last week will have long-lasting deleterious impacts on the U.S. dollar. But it’s more than that. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/COMEX-Gold-and-Silver-Prices-Craig-Hemke-March-01-2022

end

Also a good read..

Thom Calandra

Gold, silver, base metals, commodities, and help for GATA in The Calandra Report

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-03-01 22:08Section: Daily Dispatches

10:17p ET Tuesday, March 1, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The gold price, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke wrote tonight at Sprott Money, carries more than a “war premium.” Additionally, anyone who follows GATA knows that there long has been a massive and uncoverable short position in gold instigated and backstopped by central banks. This short position will be called someday, and when that happens, the monetary metals mining industry will be much more profitable.

But even if normal free-market conditions are not restored to the monetary metals soon, commodity prices generally are rising and there are many minerals in scarcity besides gold and silver.

So whatever happens with the monetary metals, investors may want to consider subscribing to the financial letter of our friend Thom Calandra, The Calandra Report, which, while it concentrates on gold and silver mining companies, also covers base metals, other commodities, and pharmaceutical companies. Thom’s special discount offer to GATA supporters is still open tonight.

Thom is a longtime GATA supporter himself whose work product is enormous. He usually produces two or three letters each week, closely covering the mining industry and offering actionable information for investors. These recent letters are an excellent examples of what Thom provides his subscribers:

https://mailchi.mp/011d4c595f94/drilling-down-a-bunch-amex-cassiar-benchmark-qubec-nickel?e=bf9f6a5475

https://mailchi.mp/31fefd6f3fe0/let-banks-not-bodies-fight-wars-bell-copper-ruble-more?e=bf9f6a5475

https://us5.campaign-archive.com/?e=%5BUNIQID%5D&u=d3a1417c9ff35564e0ddc31e9&id=b230ad44bc

https://mailchi.mp/333aa961dcd9/compounding-gold-to-3000-then-9k-then-11k-8852113?e=b12dcf9075

A regular one-year subscription to The Calandra Report is $225 but while Thom’s special offer continues GATA supporters can get it for $169, with half their payment being donated to GATA, which really could use the support, the monetary metals industry being so timid in the face of government-instigated metals price suppression.

Check out Thom’s letters linked above. If you’re favorably impressed, your discount subscription offer with the built-in assistance to GATA can be found here:

https://tinyurl.com/2p899w5w

The payment mechanism conveniently takes credit cards or Pay Pal.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/

end

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

$118Bn US Pumped into Bitcoin in Just a Few Hours

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.3173

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3208

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 417.79 PTS OR 1.84%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 451.69 PTS 1680%

3. Europe stocks ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 97.57/Euro FALLS TO 1.1102-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.134/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 115.31/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 109.73 and Brent: 111.95–

3f Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN// OFF- SHORE DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO -.0.024%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 1.55% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 0.97%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.57: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.34

3k Gold at $1930.00 silver at: 25.14 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 14/100 in roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 109.62

3m oil into the 109 dollar handle for WTI and 111 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 115.31 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9198– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0212 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.761 UP 4 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.122 UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.06

Futures Rebound On Hopes Of Resuming Ukraine Negotiations, Oil Soars To Decade High

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 07:51 AM

U.S. futures and European stocks rose on Wednesday after the Kremlin said Russia was ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine. Nasdaq 100 contracts were up 0.7% by 730 a.m. ET reversing earlier declines of as much as 0.8%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, while Dow futures gained 0.7%. Oil soared with Brent trading above $111 as traders realized that Russian oil output will be substantially reduced despite sanction loopholes. The dollar rose and 10Y yields rose.

Among notable premarket movers, Salesforce.com shares climbed as much as 3.9% after the enterprise software company forecast first-quarter revenue above estimates, while Nordstrom Inc. surged 34% as its sales and guidance for 2022 both topped expectations. SoFi Technologies Inc. also gained 21% on better-than-expected quarterly results. Hewlett Packard Enterprise climbed after raising its profit forecast. Bank shares also rose, putting them on track to rebound from their worst day since June 2020. In corporate news, Mastercard said it got about 4% of its net revenues last year from business linked to Russia, while Ukraine-related business accounted for about 2%. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has raised $2 billion for its latest private equity fund North Haven Capital Partners VII.

Global equity markets have been whipsawed since last week after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent commodity prices to historic highs and raised worries of the economic hit from resulting sanctions. With investors now abandoning bets on a half-percentage point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in March, focus will be on Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to lawmakers later today, in which he is expected to signal the U.S. central bank will go ahead with plans to hike rates this month, reassure lawmakers that the central bank will act to curb the highest inflation rates in decades.

“A Catch-22 for markets is set up,” Mark Taylor, a trader at Mirabaud Securities, wrote in an email. “The Fed will not be looking to shock and awe while there are fears of nukes flying around. This all means short-term stagflation fears build, but when we can breath relief that the situation with Russia is coming to a conclusion, there will be another day of normalization and reality will bite with a vengeance.”

“The Fed is going to have to continue to tamp down inflation, which I think is invariably going to get worse before it gets better,” Kathryn Rooney Vera, head of global macro research at Bulltick LLC, said on Bloomberg Television. “We said stagflation is the biggest risk this year and that’s going to be the case.”

US President Biden said getting prices under control is his highest priority and that he will soon send Congress a request for more pandemic-related funding. Biden outlined details of his plan to fight inflation called Building a Better America in which he called for the lowering of costs not wages such as through building cars in the US and wants to lower drug prices. Furthermore, he announced a new “test to treat” program in which people that test positive for COVID-19 at a pharmacy can get free antiviral pills on the spot. Biden’s administration weighs potential new probe aimed at US’ edge in new technologies in a move to confront China, WSJ reports; sources say efforts could include a new investigation under Section 301. Additionally, sources add they are considering heightened scrutiny of US companies investments within China and tighter export controls on sensitive tech and greater cooperation with Asian/European allies.

Meanwhile, hostilities in Ukraine continue; Here is a snapshot of the latest developments courtesy of Newsquawk:

Ukraine and Russia will hold a second round of discussion later today, via Tass citing a aide to the Ukraine presidential office
Russia’s Kremlin says the Russian delegation will be waiting later today and are ready to continue talks; not clear if Ukrainian officials will attend the talks. Will “not shoot ourselves in foot” with countersanctions. Are huge quantities of “nationalist units” in Ukraine that must be got rid of; need to punish them for crimes against own people.
Ukraine Foreign Minister says Russia’s demand are unchanged from what President Putin said at the start of the war.
US President Biden announced that the US will join allies and ban Russian flights from using US airspace , while the DoJ is assembling a task force to go after the crimes of Russian oligarchs and the US is joining European allies to find and seize assets. Biden added that they are choking off Russia’s access to technology that will sap its economic strength and weaken its military for years to come.
US official said “he could imagine Putin detonating a nuclear weapon in the atmosphere over an unpopulated area as a warning to the West.”, according to Fox News’ Bryan Llenas
Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Wednesday that its forces had captured Kherson, a Ukrainian port, according to a report by Interfax. The government in Kyiv hasn’t confirmed the information, but said overnight that troops were moving toward the city.
European Union ambassadors agreed to exclude seven Russian banks from the SWIFT financial-messaging system but spared the nation’s biggest lender Sberbank PJSC and a bank part-owned by Russian gas giant Gazprom PJSC
Russia’s central bank banned coupon payments to foreign owners of ruble bonds known as OFZs
The Ukrainian army also said that Russian airborne troops landed in Kharkiv, according to AFP.
EU Council agreed on sanctions to exclude some Russian banks from the SWIFT system and voted to ban broadcasting of Sputnik and RT in the EU.
Russian envoy to UN Gatilov said the time has come to remove nuclear weapons from western and eastern Europe, while they see no desire on part of the Ukrainian regime to try and find a legitimate and balanced solution to problems.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says Crimea is part of Russia and non-negotiable, via Al Jazeera; will not allow Ukraine to obtain nuclear weapons
Turkish Foreign Minister expects Russia and Ukraine to reach ceasefire agreement in upcoming talks, according to Sputnik
Trading platform MarketAxes will not provide trading for Russian sovereign bonds and corporates until further notice
US nuclear power industry is lobbying the White House to allow continued uranium imports from Russia, according to Reuters sources.
IAEA Nuclear watchdogs have convened an emergency meeting in Vienna. Follows Russia informing the IAEA that is has control of territory around Zaporizhzhia, the location of a nuclear plant.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 erased early declines to trade 0.3% higher. Energy and mining stocks outperformed, while utilities were the biggest decliners. Ericsson led European telecom shares lower after the U.S. Department of Justice said it failed to make adequate disclosures about its operations in Iraq. Italian bonds led euro-area peers lower, paring Tuesday’s sharp gains, as money markets brought forward wagers on a quarter-point European Central Bank rate hike to year-end from 2023, after data showed consumer prices surged to an all-time in February.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were poised to snap a streak of three-straight gains as escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions and surging oil prices spurred a broad risk-off mood. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.3%, with financial and consumer-discretionary shares the biggest drags. Japanese equities were among the region’s worst performers, while Hong Kong shares retreated on a looming lockdown amid a Covid-testing blitz. Asian markets saw some reprieve earlier this week as talks between Russia and Ukraine slightly eased investors’ concerns. However, selling pressure returned Wednesday as a surge in commodity prices amid more sanctions fanned expectations for higher inflation. U.S. President Joe Biden vowed to confront Russia over its invasion of Ukraine in his first State of the Union address. The Asian stock benchmark has declined about 6% so far this year, compared to drops of about 10% in the European and U.S. counterparts. “We are entering a new phase where we have inflation, but central banks will be unable to tackle it as decisively as before since they need to take care of risk-off markets,” said Hiroshi Yokotani, managing director at State Street Global Advisors. “The next step for market players is to prepare for more risk-off trade.” Geopolitical tensions have led to some paring back of rate-hike bets, and a 50-basis-point increase by the Federal Reserve this month now appears almost off the table. Investors will be eyeing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional speech for more clues.

Japanese equities fell, following U.S. peers lower, as a spike in oil prices drove concerns over inflation. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 2%, the most since Jan. 27. Tokyo Electron and Daikin were the largest contributors to a 1.7% loss in the Nikkei 225. “The Ukraine situation is worsening, spurring concern over a slowdown in the global economy,” said Mitsushige Akino, a senior executive officer at Ichiyoshi Asset Management. “There’s growing worry over stagflation with a jump in the prices of natural resources including crude.”

Indian stocks fell, tracking peers across Asia, as surging crude oil prices fanned inflationary risks. The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 1.4% to 55,468.90, in Mumbai, snapping two sessions of gains. The NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 1.1% to 16,605.95. India’s markets were closed for a holiday yesterday. HDFC Bank retreated 3.7% to its lowest level since April 2021 and was the biggest drag on both key indexes. Thirteen of the 19 sector sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. dropped, led by a gauge of auto stocks. Sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have pushed the price of Brent oil, a major Indian import, to about $111 a barrel. Higher commodity prices have also clouded global monetary policy, with central banks’ battling price pressures while trying to keep growth on track. READ: India’s Economic Recovery Slows Amid Growing External Risks “The market is currently caught between many macro crosswinds – higher inflationary pressure exerted by sharp rises in commodities prices across the board, determination on the part of central banks to withdraw monetary accommodation and slowing growth impulses,” said S Hariharan, head of sales at Emkay Global Financial Services. Metal and energy companies were key gainers on Sensex, led by a 5.6% surge in Tata Steel Ltd. “The street is expecting oil prices to hit $120-125 a barrel sooner than later,” Prashanth Tapse, an analyst at Mehta Equities Ltd. wrote in a note. Long-term charts for the Nifty 50 are “painting a bearish picture,” with downside inter-month risk seen at 14,271 mark, according to the note.

In rates, treasuries retreated and yields rose 1-4bps, led by the front end, following yesterday’s double VaR shock which saw front- and back-end yields crater. 10-year yields were near lows of the day, as S&P 500 futures follow European stocks higher: Treasury yields were heaper by ~7bp across front-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s by more than 3bp; 10-year yields back to around 1.75%, cheaper by 3bp vs Tuesday’s close; U.K. 10-year lags by ~5bp following Tuesday’s strong outperformance.

Italian bonds led euro-area peers lower, paring Tuesday’s sharp gains, as money markets brought forward wagers on a quarter-point European Central Bank rate hike to year-end from 2023, after data showed consumer prices surged to an all-time in February. Gilts and Bunds also pare some of Tuesday’s sharp gains, as money markets wager on a faster pace of ECB and BOE policy tightening amid a focus on surging inflation. Sovereign bonds surged in Japan, Australia and New Zealand on Wednesday, extending a global rally as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred a flight to the safety of government debt; Aussie bonds trimmed gains after 4Q GDP data.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose and the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers. Australian and New Zealand dollars were the top performers as oil led commodity complex higher, though the Norwegian krone slumped along with Sweden’s krona, with the latter trading more than 1% lower against the greenback. The euro fell to a day low of $1.1059 in the European session, its weakest level since May 2020. The pound slid versus the dollar, touching the lowest level since December. The ruble fell for a third day in onshore trading after Russia said it would press forward with its invasion into Ukraine

In commodities, oil soared to decade highs with Brent hitting $111 and WTI trading around $110, amid reports that multiple buyers were boycotting Russian oil purchases.

Spot gold falls roughly $12 to trade at around $1,933/oz. Spot silver loses 1.4%, trades at $25. Most base metals trade in the green; LME zinc outperforming peers. Bitcoin is modestly firmer and at the top-end of the week’s relatively substantial range.

Looking at the day ahead now, and data releases include the Euro Area’s flash CPI reading for February (which came in at a new record high of 5.8%, vs Exp. 5.4%), along with German unemployment for February, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for February from the US. From central banks, the main highlight will be Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, but we’ll also hear from the Fed’s Evans and Bullard, the ECB’s Vice Preisdent de Guindos and Chief Economist Lane, and the BoE’s Deputy Governor Cunliffe and Tenreyro. On top of that, the Bank of Canada will be making its latest monetary policy decision, and the Fed will release their Beige Book.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,319.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.38% to 444.04
MXAP down 1.3% to 180.98
MXAPJ down 0.8% to 593.83
Nikkei down 1.7% to 26,393.03
Topix down 2.0% to 1,859.94
Hang Seng Index down 1.8% to 22,343.92
Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,484.19
Sensex down 1.5% to 55,388.36
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,116.66
Kospi up 0.2% to 2,703.52
German 10Y yield little changed at -0.04%
Euro down 0.4% to $1.1079
Brent Futures up 5.3% to $110.55/bbl
Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,934.33
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.30% to 97.70

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

The bond market is dialing back expectations for how quickly and steeply the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as Russia’s war in Ukraine threatens to exert a drag on global economic growth
Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Wednesday that its forces had captured Kherson, a Ukrainian port, according to a report by Interfax. The government in Kyiv hasn’t confirmed the information, but said overnight that troops were moving toward the city
SNB Vice President Fritz Zurbruegg said inflation will “peak later this year and decelerate over the next year,” according to an interview published Wednesday in in L’Agefi
China’s top government officials have issued orders to prioritize energy and commodities supply security, sparked by concerns over disruptions stemming from the Ukraine-Russia war
The People’s Bank of China will add to its policy toolbox and further improve a framework that includes monetary policy and macroprudent policy in 2022, the country’s central bank said in a statement after a meeting on the matter
Russia will pay a coupon due on ruble bonds on Wednesday, according to an official familiar with the matter, but it’s not clear how foreigners will be able to access the cash after the central bank banned transfers to foreign investors

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly negative following the weak handover from Wall St where all major indices declined and bonds surged as the ongoing geopolitical turmoil surrounding Ukraine spurred a flight to safety and firm rally in oil prices. ASX 200 gained with the index led higher by the energy sector after Brent crude reclaimed the USD 110/bbl level. Nikkei 225 was pressured as exporters suffered the ill-effects of recent outperformance in the domestic currency and with automakers subdued after several reported a decline in US auto sales for last month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued following a substantial liquidity drain by the PBoC but with losses cushioned by strength in China’s oil majors and with Baidu shares rallying after it beat on earnings.

Top Asian News

Singapore Aims to Clear Foreign Labor Crunch in ‘Few Months’
Hong Kong Reports 55,353 Covid Cases, 117 Deaths Wednesday
Gold Near 13-Month High as Invasion of Ukraine Spurs ETF Inflows
Asian Stocks Snap Three-Day Rally on Renewed Ukraine Tensions

Losses in Europe trimmed and bourses are now predominantly positive following Kremlin commentary around today’s potential negotiations, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.8%. Sectors have become less defensive as the session progressed, with Tech, Insurance and Banking names now firmer after being among the laggards around the open. US futures are firmer, ES +0.7%, posting broad-based gains and similarly benefitting from the Kremlin commentary; though, Focus turns to Fed Chair Powell’s testimony.

Top European News

Russia’s First Victim of Sanctions is Sberbank’s Europe Business
Europe’s Biggest Logistics Firms Halt Deliveries Into Russia
Gold Near 13-Month High as Invasion of Ukraine Spurs ETF Inflows
Just Eat Takeaway Gains After ‘In Line’ Results

In FX, dollar outperforms as UST yields rebound and the curve steepens, DXY above 97.800 at one stage. Loonie resistant amidst another spike in oil ahead of BoC that is unanimously expected to lift rates by 25 bp and could provide QT guidance; USD/CAD closer to 1.2700 than 1.2750. Aussie and Kiwi underpinned after strong data and as commodity prices continue to climb – comfortably above 0.7250 and 0.6750 respectively. Euro still lagging fundamentally and technically with EUR/USD down to 1.1060 before paring some losses and EUR/CHF sub-1.0200. Yen retreats as bonds correct lower and momentum fades through 115 vs the Buck. Rouble still reeling as Russian assault rumbles on and Kremlin rails against nationalist factions in Ukraine.

In commodities, WTI and Brent are experiencing another session of substantial gains, posting upside in excess of USD 5.00/bbl with Brent May and WTI April peaking at USD 113.02/bbl and USD 111.50/oz respectively. US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -6.1mln (exp. +2.7mln), Gasoline -2.5mln (exp. -1.4mln), Distillate +0. 4mln (exp. -1.7mln), Cushing -1.0mln. US Department of Energy announced an emergency sale of 30mln bbls of crude oil from SPR and said the release is aimed at addressing market and supply disruptions related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. US Senate GOP offered a bill to ban US purchase of Russian oil. US Transportation Secretary Buttigieg said everything is on the table when it comes to banning Russian oil imports to the US and that active discussions on that are being led by allies overseas, while he suggested there could be more heard about this in the coming days, according to Fox Business’ Lawrence. China is reportedly moving to secure commodity supplies rocked by the Ukrainian conflict, according to Bloomberg; government officials have issued orders to prioritise energy and commodities supply security; pushing state-owned buyers to fill any potential supply gaps for barley, corn, iron ore and oil/gas. Italian oil giant Eni (ENI IM) is to pull out of Russia-Turkey gas pipeline, according to AFP. Yamal-Europe pipeline has resumed eastbound gas flows to Poland from Germany, via Reuters citing Gascade data. Spot gold/silver are softer as havens lost their allure amid the Kremlin’s commentary around a Russia-Ukraine meeting; albeit, spot gold remains in proximity to the USD 1930/oz mark. OPEC+ is set to stick to its existing policy of gradual oil output increases at today’s meeting despite the Ukraine crisis, according to multiple Reuters’ sources. OPEC+ JMMC expected to be a short meeting, indicates OPEC+ will stick to existing plan for +400k BPD oil output increase in April, according to a Gulf source cited by Reuters.

US Event Calendar

7am: Feb. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -13.1%
8:15am: Feb. ADP Employment Change, est. 375,000, prior -301,000
2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Central Banks

9am: Fed’s Evans Discusses Economy and Monetary Policy
9:30am: Fed’s Bullard Discusses the Economic Outlook
10am: Fed Chair Powell Testifies Before House Panel
2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
4:30pm: New York Fed’s Logan Discusses Fed Asset Purchases

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We’ll have a full review of President Biden’s State of the Union address and a further surge in oil overnight later but the main story for markets at the moment has been a remarkable day and a half for the rates market. This was especially prevalent yesterday in Europe. 10yr bunds (-21.0bps) fell back into negative territory (-0.072% at the close) after seeing their largest daily fall since the Euro Crisis over a decade ago. This was echoed right across the continent with yields on 10yr gilts (-28.1bps) seeing their largest decline since the day after the Brexit referendum in 2016, whilst OATs (-24.2bps), and BTPs (-30.5bps) saw similarly unprecedented moves lower. It’s certainly not a typical risk-off with Italy being the best performer which indicates that much of it is more to do with a dramatic repricing of the ECB’s potential hawkishness, which has likely been exacerbated by positioning dynamics given the increasing expectation of hawkish central bank action.

Indeed, overnight index swaps are pricing in just 5.6bps worth of hikes from the ECB by the December meeting, down from a peak above 50bps less than a month earlier, which would have been enough to take the deposit rate out of negative territory. That view was then given added support by Olli Rehn of Finland’s central bank, who said that “given the new situation, we need to take a moment of reflection as regards the speed and way of a gradual normalization of monetary policy”. The next ECB meeting is only a week tomorrow now, so we shouldn’t have long to wait to find out how the conflict is affecting their thinking. On our Russia/Ukraine call, Mark Wall suggested he believed the ECB re-pricing doesn’t reflect the overall concern the committee have on inflation so it’s fair to say we have two huge conflicting forces here. For this week though the geopolitics are steamrolling over the inflation hawks for which I will put my hand up and say I am one.

This shift in central bank pricing was evident in the United States as well, where Fed funds futures not only moved to fully price out a 50bps hike at the next meeting, (only 96% probability of a 25bp hike now), but also priced out another -12.0bps worth of hikes from 2022 as a whole, having already taken out -21.5bps worth the previous day. This heightened uncertainty means that all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell today, who’s testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, and his appearances today and tomorrow will be some of the last Fedspeak we get before the FOMC enters their pre-meeting blackout period this Saturday. In terms of the reaction from Treasuries, they had a more subdued move relative to their European counterparts, although yields on 10yr Treasuries were still down -9.8bps on the day to 1.73%, again entirely driven by lower real yields. There is not much change overnight. As I mentioned yesterday, real yields collapsing has probably helped cushion the blow for risk assets of the recent very negative events. US 10yr real yields are now -54.8bps lower from their post US CPI levels (Feb 10th), and -37.3bps over the last two days. At -0.97% they are below their levels from immediately before the December FOMC minutes released in early January that signalled the FOMC was more actively considering QT than the market was expecting, which kicked off the Fed’s hawkish turn that was the dominant market story for the first six to seven weeks of the year. How quickly things change. One other rates dynamic we were covering a lot before the geopolitical escalation was the flattening of the yield curve. The 2s10s curve has only flattened around -7bps since Biden’s speech noting an invasion was imminent back on February 11, so the rally has been a relatively parallel shock lower for the entire curve.

Another notable feature about yesterday’s moves was that even as investors moved to price out aggressive central bank hikes this year given the geopolitical risks, commodity prices actually took another leg higher to fresh multi-year highs. So central banks are going to have a real challenge on their hands as they seek to prevent supply-driven inflation becoming entrenched whilst also protecting growth. In terms of those commodity moves, Brent Crude oil prices were up by a massive +7.15% to $104.97/bbl, their highest closing level since 2014, whilst WTI also rose +8.03% to $103.41/bbl. They are up another 4-5% this morning so big moves in Asia. There were also big milestones amongst agricultural commodities yesterday, which again will be very bad news on the inflation front. On that, wheat futures (+5.35%) surpassed their previous high back in 2012 to move up to levels not seen since 2008, soybeans (+3.25%) hit a post-2012 high, and corn prices (+5.07%) hit their highest level since May 2021. Both Ukraine and Russia are large producers of wheat, together accounting for around 30% of the world’s wheat exports, so this is one of the channels where the direct economic impact is acute.

It was another bad day for equities against that backdrop, although to be fair both the major US and European indices are still notably above their lows from last week even with yesterday’s falls. By the close of trade, the S&P 500 (-1.55%) and the STOXX 600 (-2.37%) had both lost further ground, with cyclical sectors leading the declines on both sides of the Atlantic. The Vix advanced to 34.0pts, its highest level since January 2021. S&P futures are back up around +0.5% this morning. In Russia, the main indices remained closed yesterday, but depositary receipts traded in London pointed to further losses again, with those on Sberbank down by another -80.10%, on top of its -74.00% decline on Monday, whilst Gazprom fell by -71.32%, on top of its own -52.51% decline the previous day.

Last night President Biden gave the annual State of the Union address. He led the remarks with a show of support for Ukraine, championing the unity of western allies, and warning that Putin’s Russia would emerge from the conflict weaker. As he has argued before, Russia will not be made any weaker by way of American troops, which would only be in Europe to defend NATO territory. In terms of new developments, the President announced that American airspace would be restricted to all Russian flights.

He went on to signal fighting inflation as his top priority. The policies he’s prescribing, which all won’t make it to law (and were no longer framed as a single ‘build back better’ bill), focused on expanding the supply side of the economy to lower costs and discouraging anti-competitive dynamics. He also reiterated that the US would release strategic petroleum reserves to help cap energy costs. In terms of specific plans, Biden pitched for additional infrastructure investment to make US manufacturing and supply chains more productive, which he also framed as a way to compete economically versus China. He connected green investments as a way to cut energy costs as well, advocating investments in home energy efficiency and electric cars. On the labour market, he called for measures to lower the cost of child care to bring more parents into the work force to expand participation. The President also pitched tax reforms to offset the inflationary fiscal impulse of additional spending. Specifically, he advocated for corporate taxes, a global minimum tax, and closing tax loopholes on wealthier Americans. Finally, he signalled anti-competition policy would play a role in capping prices. So a full plate for the President’s party ahead of the mid-term elections.

On Covid, the President admitted a new variant could well come at some point, and asked for funding to remain prepared for it. Otherwise, he intimated the country should be ready to open up and stay open.

Yesterday’s further commodities rally and the completely repricing of the ECB curve heightens the emphasis on today’s flash CPI reading for February, which is out at 10am London time. In advance of that however, we did get the German and Italian inflation readings for February, which both came in above expectations on the EU-harmonised measure. The German figure rose to +5.5% on a year-on-year basis (vs. +5.4% expected), and Italy’s rose to +6.2% (vs. 5.5% expected). In a sign that investors are moving to price in higher inflation for the years ahead as well, inflation breakevens rose across multiple countries yesterday, with Germany and Italy’s 10yr breakeven hitting fresh highs for the decade, at 2.19% and 2.03% respectively.

On the war itself, fighting appeared to intensify further, with reports of more forces mounting near the border and Russia vowing to press forward until its goals were met. The next round of peace negotiations are set to begin today which will create a small amount of hope.

Elsewhere on the data side, the US ISM manufacturing reading for February rose to 58.6 (vs. 58.0 expected), with the new orders component at a 5-month high of 61.7 (vs. 56.3 expected). We also had the final Euro Area manufacturing PMI, which came in a bit beneath the flash reading at 58.2 (vs. flash 58.4).

Today, is the third day of DB’s Global ESG conference. If you missed Mike Bloomberg’s keynote on Monday, you can watch the replay here. Nike’s featured sustainability presentation from Tuesday can be replayed here. At the conference today, we will have presentations from Mastercard, Anheuser-Busch, Zoom Media, Ingersoll Rand and Ardagh Metal Pkg. In addition, there is an investor work shop focused on water scarcity and pollution at 12:00 GMT. You can register for the conference here.

DB’s Mining team is hosting an Expert Call on Thursday 3 March at 3pm (4pm CET, 10am EST) to discuss the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on industrial metals, where Russia is major global exporter. The call will explore the potential influence of sanctions, the impact of renewed energy price appreciation, how China could react from a supply policy and demand stimulus perspective and the risk of demand destruction from rising prices. For further details and the registration link click here

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Euro Area’s flash CPI reading for February, along with German unemployment for February, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for February from the US. From central banks, the main highlight will be Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, but we’ll also hear from the Fed’s Evans and Bullard, the ECB’s Vice Preisdent de Guindos and Chief Economist Lane, and the BoE’s Deputy Governor Cunliffe and Tenreyro. On top of that, the Bank of Canada will be making its latest monetary policy decision, and the Fed will release their Beige Book.

END

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA/IRAN

China is buying 700,000 barrels of Iranian oil every day, violating USA sanctions

(zerohedge)

China Buys 700K Barrels of Iranian Oil Every Day, Violating US Sanctions

TUESDAY, MAR 01, 2022 – 09:45 PM

Iran has been subjected to crippling oil-export sanctions for the last several years, but that hasn’t stopped China, whose imports of Iranian oil have increased by the month (read: here), traders and ship-tracking firms told Reuters. Chinese buyers are ramping crude purchases at low prices as the international crude benchmark Brent soars and outweighs any risks of U.S. sanctions.

Indeed, as Reuters notes, Chinese imports of Iranian crude continued to skyrocket this year despite the sanctions that, if enforced, would allow Washington to cut off those who violate them from the U.S. economy. But when the U.S. president is unlikely to wake up from his afternoon nap or refuse to be disturbed while eating ice cream and do anything to punish China for violating the terms of the embargo, Chinese importers exceeded 700,000 bpd for January, according to estimates by three tanker trackers, which exceeded the 623,000 bpd peak recorded by Chinese customs in 2017 before former President Trump reimposed sanctions in 2018 on Iranian oil exports.

One tanker tracker said imports between November to December were on average 780,000 bpd.

Much of the buying comes from independent Chinese refiners (otherwise known as “teapots”), who, traders said embraced Iran’s cheaper crude as Brent prices soared last month from $77 to $91. Teapots paid a discount to market, transacting $5 a barrel below Brent.

Consulting firm Petro-Logistics, which tracks oil flows, said Iran’s total crude exports soared in December to over 1 million bpd, the highest in three years.

“Iran’s oil exports are mostly going to China, often through convoluted routes and transshipments, with small volumes going to Syria each month,” said CEO Daniel Gerber.

Petro-Logistics expects total Iranian oil exports at 800,000 bpd in January and 700,000 bpd in February. Another tracker firm, OilX, said 1 million bpd could be seen for both January and February.

Iranian imports are increasing as Iranian and U.S. officials continue negotiating to restore the 2015 nuclear deal. If such a deal is reached in Vienna, lifting most international sanctions on Tehran would mean Iranian crude exports could flood the world and divert sales away from the Chinese teapots.

The Ukrainian crisis likely gives Iran a stronger hand in the negotiations as Brent is driven above $100 a barrel on geopolitical concerns. Increasing political pressure on President Biden to tame inflation, more importantly, high gas prices at the pump ahead of midterms could make western politicians more receptive to a deal to squash oil prices.

On Friday, a senior U.S. State Department official told WSJ there were only days left to close the remaining difference between Iran and the U.S. for a deal.

“Final decisions have to be taken this week—either we have a deal or we do not,” an official from one of the European countries at the talks said Monday. “The context of the current international crisis means the window of opportunity is closing.”

In the meantime, it appears the U.S. will punish countries who violate its sanctions, though it won’t dare touch China as it is too afraid of what an escalation could look like.

end

CHINA/RUSSIA

We knew that this would happen: China will not join in on Russian sanctions

(zerohedge)

China Won’t Join Russia Sanctions, Banking Regulator Warns

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 02:55 PM

After urging ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, China on Wednesday announced that it would not join the West in imposing sanctions on Russia.

Guo Shuqing

The announcement was made by China’s banking and insurance regulator Guo Shuqing during a press briefing on Wednesday.

“Everyone is watching recent military conflict, or war, between Russia and Ukraine,” Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said during a press conference in Mandarin.
“China’s position has been stated clearly by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Our international policies are consistent.” “Regarding financial sanctions, we do not support that,” said Guo, noting particular opposition to “unilateral” sanctions, which he said don’t effectively address problems. “China won’t join such sanctions.“

Guo also happens to be the CCP’s secretary of the People’s Bank of China, the PRC’s central bank. He added on Wednesday that he hopes all sides will maintain ‘normal economic exchanges’ and insisted that the sanctions have had no apparent impact on China so far.

Here’s more on his comments, courtesy of the Global Times:

“As far as financial sanctions are concerned, we are not in favor of such unilaterally initiated sanctions, because they are not effective and have no legal basis,” Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said during a press conference held at the State Council Information Office.
Guo stressed that his agency will not participate in such sanctions and will continue to maintain normal economic and trade exchanges with relevant parties.
Talking about the potential disruption that Western financial sanctions against Russia could inflict on the Chinese economy, Guo said that “it does not seem to be too obvious at the moment and needs to be further observed.
Generally speaking, it will not have much an impact, since our economy and our financial system are very stable and resilient,” Guo said.

Guo isn’t the only CCP official to rebuke the West over its treatment of both Russia and China during the Ukraine crisis.

Since the start of the conflict, Beijing has insisted on promoting dialogue between the two sides. As we noted yesterday, Beijing has claimed that it’s “extremely concerned” about civilian casualties in Ukraine. Ukraine, meanwhile, has begged China to pressure Russia to stop the war.

However, so far, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has refused to even characterize Russia’s attack on Ukraine an invasion.

Instead, Beijing has chosen to promote negotiations as China tries to distance itself from Russia than was portrayed in early February during a high-profile meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The US, UK and Europe have slapped onerous sanctions on Russia, but their efforts have so far failed to target Russia’s energy business, which is responsible for exporting much of the oil and natural gas that European nations like Germany use to provide heat to their populations.

As the death toll mounts, The UN human rights office said Tuesday that at least 136 Ukrainian civilians had been killed by Russian forces, including 13 children.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFFAIRS

EUROPE/NATURAL GAS/OIL

Many refiners are refusing Russian energy products causing huge spikes in price. Those with contracts continue to see oil/gas flow. Russia is now treated as a commercial outcast

(zerohedge)

Chaos Erupts In Energy Markets As European Gas Jumps 60%

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 07:43 AM

The invasion of Ukraine has transformed Russia into a commercial outcast as refiners balk at purchasing Russian energy products, and banks are refusing to finance shipments. The result is a physical market in disarray as geopolitical turmoil upends supply chains and keeps markets volatile.

Commodity markets have been in turmoil since the Feb. 24 invasion. European natural gas jumped as much as 60% on Wednesday — as buyers, traders and shippers avoid Russian gas.

Three sources told Bloomberg that gas and power traders are avoiding new deals with Russia’s Gazprom PJSC. They said European companies are expected to unwind contracts, or clearinghouses will halt trading with Russia’s state-owned energy company and liquidate their positions.

But for now, Gazprom’s gas supplies are flowing into Europe and increasing. Shipments at top entry points, such as Velke Kapusany in Slovakia and Yamal-Europe pipeline overnight in Germany, have recorded gas levels rebounded, with more capacity booked.

The invasion has turned Russian into a commercial outcast and is causing changes in market structures, price dislocations, and violent swings across commodities and many asset classes.

The European benchmark, Dutch gas, jumped to nearly 195 euros a megawatt-hour, a record high, and were 38% higher at 167 euros at 0728 ET.

The invasion has sent crude soaring — with Brent crude topping $113 a barrel around 0300 ET — as buyers bulk at Russian energy products.

“Geopolitics are throttling supply chains and keeping markets on edge,” said John Driscoll, a Singapore-based chief strategist at JTD Energy Services Pte. The wild swings in intraday trading ranges, volatility and backwardation are “scary,” he said.

Russia, which supplies one-third of Europe’s gas needs, has said delivery of gas through vast pipeline networks will continue. Gazprom warned Tuesday of “serious challenges” in replenishing European gas storage facilities for next winter, considering “such significant gas volumes” are needed. This has never happened ahead of the summer months.

Europe is already smack dab in an energy crisis that appears to be worsening by the day as gas prices soar to record highs. Demand destruction will be brought forward at this rate and could push the continent’s economy into stagflation.

On Tuesday, European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn was quoted by Bloomberg as saying Russia’s invasion will lead to stagflation. He said the ECB is not in a position to tighten fiscal policy.

World Bank President David Malpass told CBS on Sunday that it could take upwards of five years to find alternatives to Russian gas.

END

UK/RUSSIA

Russia states that their heightened nuclear alert was entirely the fault of UK’s foreign secretary Truss.

(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

Russia Says Heightened Nuclear Alert Was Entirely The Fault Of UK’s Foreign Secretary

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The White House said Monday that the US sees “no reasons” to change its nuclear alert levels after Russian President Vladimir Putin placed Russia’s nuclear forces on a “special” alert.

According to Interfax, Russia’s Defense Ministry said Monday that its nuclear missile forces in its Northern and Pacific fleets have been placed on “enhanced combat duty” in response to Putin’s order.Nuclear football aboard “Marine 1” via Reuters

“We are assessing President Putin’s directive and at this time, we see no reasons to change our own alert levels,” White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters.

Later in the day, President Biden was asked if Americans should worry about nuclear war, to which he simply replied, “no.” Psaki claimed that the US and NATO had no “appetite or desire” for a conflict with Russia even as the Western powers are pledging to funnel more weapons into Ukraine and have imposed a series of harsh sanctions on Russia.

According to BBC, the Kremlin later explained its change in nuclear forces posture was due to comments made by UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss:

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said “unacceptable” remarks were made about possible “clashes” between Nato and Moscow over Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
It is unclear precisely which comments by Ms Truss Russia objects to.
On Sunday, she said if Russia was not stopped, other states may be threatened and it could end in conflict with Nato.
A Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office source told the BBC: “I don’t think anything Liz has said warrants that sort of rhetoric or escalation.”

Peskov said Monday: “Statements were made by various representatives at various levels on possible altercations or even collisions and clashes between Nato and Russia.”

“We believe that such statements are absolutely unacceptable. I would not call the authors of these statements by name, although it was the British foreign minister.”

Putin has made clear that a key demand for a ceasefire in Ukraine is for Kyiv to declare its neutrality, but the increased US and NATO support makes that less likely to happen.

end

EU/BELARUS

Belarus hit with sanctions for aiding Russia invade Ukraine

(zerohedge)

EU Hits Belarus With New Sanctions As Pentagon Says “No Indication” Its Troops In Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 10:46 AM

On Wednesday the European Union approved fresh sanctions on Belarus for its role in facilitating the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which started last Thursday. While from the start there have been conflicting reports over the extent to which Belarus actually has forces or military assets on the ground inside Ukraine, it’s clear that Minsk allowed its territory to be used as a staging ground for Russian forces to come from the north.

“The sanctions target Belarusian officials and military personnel that the EU says were involved with Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, according to a tweet from the French presidency of the EU,” The Hill reports.Kremlin image via Reuters

The French statement further specified the actions are against “Certain sectors of the Belarusian economy, in particular the wood, steel and potash sectors.”

This follows the initial EU announcement Sunday that it would soon impose penalties on “Belarusians helping the Russian war effort.”

“Lukashenko’s regime is complicit in this vicious attack against Ukraine. So we will hit Lukashenko’s regime with a new package of sanctions,” EU President Ursula von der Leyen had stated previously.

The fresh sanctions correspond with the US Treasury also targeting some top Belarusian officials.

Ukrainian officials themselves have widely alleged the presence of Belarusian forces assisting in the invasion. “Belarusian troops have entered Chernihiv region. The information was confirmed to the public by Vitaliy Kyrylov, spokesman for the North Territorial Defense Forces. More details later,” Ukraine’s parliament information service tweeted earlier.

Belarus had been swift to reject the accusations, with President Lukashenko asserting, “No decisions were made by me.” He added: “And without my decision, these units cannot even be withdrawn from the barracks.”

According to Politico, the Pentagon and US intelligence has yet to see evidence that Belarusian forces are directly involved inside Ukraine’s territory:

In Washington, a U.S. defense official briefing reporters said the U.S. had “no confirmation that the Belarusians are entering Ukraine, we’ve seen no indication of that.”
And Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko denied that his country’s military has joined Russia’s attack.

Regardless, it’s clear that on the level of intelligence and logistics, Belarus is coordinating with its Russian ally as part of the so-called ‘Union State’. In recent months Lukashenko has raised eyebrows over his repeat invitations for Putin to station nuclear warheads at bases in Belarus.

end

Russian stocks in London battered (down over 98%) as Moscow Exchange remains closed. Many cannot see how anyone can bid for these stocks

(zerohedge)

Russian Stocks Devastated In London As Moscow Exchange Remains Closed

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 12:00 PM

Russia has kept domestic stock trading closed for the third session as wealth funds (or the national plunge protection team) prepare to unleash billions of dollars to buy the dip. Even as domestic markets remain close, Russian companies trading abroad continue to collapse in value.

This is evident in the Dow Jones Russia GDR Index, an index designed to track the top Russian Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs) that trade on the London Stock Exchange. The index plunged a mindboggling 98% in just a few days and wiped out $572 billion from the market value of 23 stocks, including Gazprom PJSC, Sberbank of Russia PJSC, and Rosneft PJSC, according to Bloomberg.

The three-session closing of the Moscow bourse is its longest closure since the 1998 Russian financial crisis. Trading in Moscow came to an abrupt halt late last week after U.S. and Europe sanctioned Russia over the invasion of Ukraine.

Then over the weekend, Western governments stepped up the pressure on Russia by expelling some Russian banks from SWIFT, a global financial messaging service, and “paralyzed” the Russian central bank reserves held in the U.S.

“It’s very difficult to see any scenario right now where buying Russian assets makes sense,” David Coombs, head of multi-asset investments at Rathbones, told CNN.
All bets, he added, would be a “pure gamble.”

The pricing of Russian assets abroad suggests finding buyers for stocks and bonds could be an arduous task. On Friday, S&P lowered Russia’s credit rating to “junk.”

When markets reopen, Moscow is set to deploy $10 billion from its sovereign wealth fund to buy up battered domestic stocks — essentially taking a page from Washington (and Beijing’s) playbook, and unleashes its own version of the plunge protection team to attempt to backstop stocks and reinstate some confidence.

Investors are also using VanEck’s Russia ETF (RSX) as a proxy for when Russian markets reopen. After falling near 30% at the open in the U.S. cash session, RSX has rallied upwards of 45% from the low and has gone slightly into the green as of 1130 ET.

There’s still no timeline on when Russian markets will reopen. During Greece’s 2015 financial crisis, stocks remained closed for a month.

“Even if the [Russian] stock market remains closed for a period of time, we’re likely to see the leading ETFs as good proxies for where the market is headed,” Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual-fund research at CFRA, told WSJ.
“The same thing happened in Greece in 2015.”

One can only wonder if the centrally planned efforts (closing local markets and priming the PPT) will be able to control madness when markets reopen or will it backfire (offering trapped longs a better exit)?

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA//UKRAINE/USA/EU

Apple and Ford are the latest to cut ties with Russia

(zerohedge)

Apple, Ford Lead Latest Round Of US Companies Cutting Russia Ties

TUESDAY, MAR 01, 2022 – 07:15 PM

As another market day comes to an end in the US, another flurry of American companies have announced plans to cut ties with Russian business partners, or simply stop selling their products in the Russian Federation. These companies include Apple, Nike, Ford and others, all of whom have released statements on Tuesday.

For starters, Apple has halted all product sales in Russia, while halting exports to Russia sales channels. It’s also pulling RT News and Sputnik News from App Stores outside of Russia, and is disabling traffic and live incidents in Apple Maps in Ukraine.

Here’s the full Apple statement on Russia, where it announced plans to limit Apple Pay and other services, while taking other steps to protect Ukrainians and their interests.

“We are deeply concerned about the Russian invasion of Ukraine and stand with all of the people who are suffering as a result of the violence. We are supporting humanitarian efforts, providing aid for the unfolding refugee crisis, and doing all we can to support our teams in the region. We have taken a number of actions in response to the invasion. We have paused all product sales in Russia. Last week, we stopped all exports into our sales channel in the country.”
“Apple Pay and other services have been limited. RT News and Sputnik News are no longer available for download from the App Store outside Russia. And we have disabled both traffic and live incidents in Apple Maps in Ukraine as a safety and precautionary measure for Ukrainian citizens. We will continue to evaluate the situation and are in communication with relevant governments on the actions we are taking. We join all those around the world who are calling for peace.”

Apple described the decision as an attempt to protect the “safety and precautionary measure” for citizens in Ukraine. However, as one Bloomberg presenter pointed out, the move is largely symbolic.

Moving on, like Shell and BP divesting their Russian assets, Ford also said it would “suspend” its joint venture in Russia and instead find ways to support “Ukrainian nationals”, in part by making a large ($100K) donation to “the Global Giving Ukraine Relief Fund”.

As part of the global community, Ford is deeply concerned about the invasion of Ukraine and the resultant threats to peace and stability. The situation has compelled us to reassess our operations in Russia. In recent years, Ford has significantly wound down its Russian operations, which now focus exclusively on commercial van manufacturing and Russian sales through a minority interest in the Sollers Ford joint venture. Given the situation, we have today informed our JV partners that we are suspending our operations in Russia, effective immediately, until further notice.
While we don’t have significant operations in Ukraine, we do have a strong contingent of Ukrainian nationals working at Ford around the world and we will continue to support them through this time.
Ford Fund is also making a $100,000 donation to the Global Giving Ukraine Relief Fund for humanitarian aid to assist Ukrainian citizens and families who have been displaced during this crisis.

Athletic wear juggernaut Nike has closed its online stores and said it won’t sell any new merchandise in Russia because it can no longer “guarantee” delivery.

Nike made the announcement on its Russian website. It wasn’t immediately clear if the change was a new corporate policy or the result of supply-chain difficulties following the nation’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine. Nike didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment, per Bloomberg.

Also on the tech front, Snap Inc., owner of Snapchat, the popular social media app, won’t be running any more Russian advertising.

Finally, social messaging and media app Snapchat, owned by parent company Snap Inc., said it had stopped running all advertising in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine and is halting ad sales to all Russian and Belarusian entities as part of “complying with all sanctions targeting Russian businesses and individuals.”

The company has continued to offer the app in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus because it “remains an important communications tool for family and friends.”

The company noted that Ukraine is the birthplace of Looksery, the company whose technology laid the foundation for Snap’s augmented reality platform, “and has been the home of more than 300 of Snap’s most creative and talented team members.” That includes both Snap employees currently based in Ukraine as well as those who are from Ukraine originally and now live elsewhere.

Google parent Alphabet and Facebook parent Meta are facing potential blowback from the Russian government after both companies cut off RT and other allegedly state-backed broadcasters from their platforms, angering the Kremlin, which has railed about the possibility of passing laws to punish these moves.

But the real big question is: with all the US companies rushing to cut financial ties with Russia, does all this risk backfiring?

end

Google and Apple payment systems block Russians and this is causing chaos in Moscow Metro system

(Watson/SummitNews)

Apple & Google Payment Systems Block Russians, Causing Chaos In Moscow Metro System

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 11:25 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Russians attempting to use Apple Pay and Google Pay found that their access had been blocked, causing chaos in the Moscow Metro system.

Irish journalist Jason Corcoran tweeted the following image, which shows long queues at the Moscow metro station after both payment systems stopped working for Russians.

“Apple Pay and Google Pay no longer work on Moscow’s metro system, leading to long queues as people fumble about for cash,” tweeted Corcoran.

Following heavy economic sanctions imposed on Moscow, people with Russian bank cards are now blocked from using the payment services, including Samsung Pay.

“Customers at a number of banks in Russia can no longer use their bank cards with Google Pay and Apple Pay due to newly-imposed financial sanctions on the country,” reports the Verge, noting that such payment methods are less popular in Russia than they are in the west.

“While customers can still use bank cards from these institutions within Russia, they’ll no longer work abroad or when making online payments to stores and services belonging to countries that issued sanctions on Russia,” states the report.

Wary of the impact sanctions will have on the Russian economy, the country has experienced bank runs, with people rushing to ATMs to withdraw large amounts of cash.

“Giving the keys of our lives to companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon and the digital world is the biggest mistake for mankind,” remarked one respondent to the story.

In a related story, domain service company Namecheap has also banned Russians from using their service.

Presumably, the company will also be severing all ties with Saudi customers given Saudi Arabia’s bombardment of Yemen.

Or maybe not.

Aside from any argument about the rights and wrongs of the Russia-Ukraine war, the story underscores how allowing Big Tech corporations the power to control payment systems based on moral judgments is a dangerous game.

If these entities continue to seek to create monopolies over sectors of the economy, what happens when such systems become the only available payment option?

Uber already blocks people from ordering a taxi if they have previously refused to wear a face mask in some instances.

In our collective dystopian, social credit score future, what’s to stop Apple and Google blocking your ability to pay for something if you voted for the ‘wrong’ political party or got banned from social media over an ‘offensive’ post?

* * *

end

Biden bans Russian flights over USA airspace. Boeing suspends support services for Russian airlines. That is scary!

(zerohedge)

Biden To Ban Russian Flights Over US Airspace As Boeing Suspends Support Service For Russian Airlines

TUESDAY, MAR 01, 2022 – 07:32 PM

Among the many things to be announced by Joe BIden in his SOTU speech tonight, one will be that the U.S. government will ban Russian aircraft from American airspace, broadening aviation restrictions as the West expands sanctions over the war in Ukraine.

PRESIDENT BIDEN PLANS TO ANNOUNCE ON TUESDAY THE UNITED STATES WILL BAN RUSSIAN FLIGHTS FROM U.S. AIRSPACE FOLLOWING EU AND CANADA – RTRS

This echoes a report from the WSJ which earlier noted that an order barring Russian-owned and -operated aircraft from U.S. airspace is expected to be issued as soon as within the next 24 hours.

The U.S. move would follow earlier prohibitions by European and Canadian authorities. The restrictions, which Russia has retaliated against by issuing a similar ban on European flights, have disrupted airline flight plans as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine escalates.

Meanwhile, in a potentially far more ominous development, Politico reporter Lee Hudson tweeted that Boeing has suspended aircraft maintenance and support services for Russian airlines,

“We have suspended major operations in Moscow and temporarily closed our office in Kyiv,” Hudson tweets, citing company statement.

In other words, going forward anyone flying in a Russian Boeing will do so knowing that the plane was not serviced and is a potential death trap, even more so than just flying in a 737 MAX, the airplane best known for being “designed by clowns, who in turn were supervised by monkeys.” Naturally, this means that all Russian commercial flights will be effectively grounded overnight.

end

Now Visa and Mastercard block certain Russian firms because of sanctions

(zerohedge0

Visa, Mastercard Block Certain Russian Firms Due To Sanctions

TUESDAY, MAR 01, 2022 – 08:35 PM

The Western world continues to obsess about using financial weapons to implode Russia’s economy. The latest is payment and credit card giants Visa and Mastercard blocked certain Russian financial institutions from their payment networks to comply with international sanctions, according to Bloomberg.

On Monday, Mastercard said it had “blocked multiple financial institutions” from its payment network without naming names.

“We will continue to work with regulators in the days ahead to abide fully by our compliance obligations as they evolve,” Mastercard said.

“Visa is taking prompt action to ensure compliance with applicable sanctions, and is prepared to comply with additional sanctions that may be implemented,” the firm said in a statement Tuesday.

The move comes after European nations and the U.S. announced a series of sanctions to cut off Russia from the global financial system. One restrictive measure removed “selected Russian banks” from the SWIFT messaging system that will harm their ability to operate globally. Also, restrictive measures were placed on the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves to support the ruble.

The U.S., European Union, and the U.K. also targeted Russian oligarchs to find and seize their assets. The trans-Atlantic task force will “identify, hunt down, and freeze the assets of sanctioned Russian companies and oligarchs,” said a senior Biden Administration official.

“We’ll go after their yachts, their luxury apartments, their money, and their ability to send their kids to fancy colleges in the West,” the official said.

The wide-ranging sanctions were in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine five days ago. Russian forces are marching towards the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, though they have made little progress over the past 24 hours due to logistical difficulties. It seems Western sanctions have yet to deter Russian President Putin from backing down.

end

Now World Athletic council bans all Russian and Belarusian athletes from international sporting events

(zerohedge)

World Athletics Council Bans “All Russian & Belarusian Athletes” From International Sporting Events

TUESDAY, MAR 01, 2022 – 10:25 PM

More and more international sports leagues are banning Russian athletes from competing after the country invaded Ukraine. The latest is the World Athletics Council announced: “all athletes, support personnel and officials from Russia and Belarus will be excluded from all World Athletics Series events.”

Upcoming events include the World Athletics Championships Oregon22, the World Athletics Indoor Championships Belgrade 22, and the World Athletics Race Walking Team Championships Muscat 22, which begin on Friday in Oman (4 March).
The Council also agreed to consider further measures, including the suspension of the Belarus Federation, at its scheduled Council meeting next week (9-10 March).
The Russian Athletics Federation (RusAF) has been suspended from World Athletics since 2015, due to doping violations, and therefore is not currently eligible to host World Athletics events or send teams to international championships.
The Authorised Neutral Athlete (ANA) process remains in place but Russian athletes who have received ANA status for 2022 are excluded from World Athletics Series events for the foreseeable future.
This means that all Russian ANA or Belarusian athletes currently accredited for the World Athletics Race Walking Team Championships Muscat 22 and the World Athletics Indoor Championships Belgrade 22 (18-20 March) will have their accreditation withdrawn and entries denied, as will any support personnel and officials. – statement via World Athletics Council

World Athletics Council President Sebastian Coe said in a statement, “the world horrified by what Russia has done, aided and abetted by Belarus. World leaders sought to avoid this invasion through diplomatic means but to no avail given Russia’s unswerving intention to invade Ukraine. The unprecedented sanctions that are being imposed on Russia and Belarus by countries and industries all over the world appear to be the only peaceful way to disrupt and disable Russia’s current intentions and restore peace.”

Coe said, “imposing sanctions on athletes because of the actions of their government goes against the grain.” However, “this is different as governments, business and other international organizations have imposed sanctions and measures against Russia across all sectors.”

Russian athletes were also barred from competing in international ice skating and skiing events on Tuesday, one day after being banned from hockey and soccer competitions.

Here’s an updated list of international sporting events Russia has been banned from (courtesy of AP News):

ARCHERY

Russia and Belarus flags and anthems banned at all World Archery international events.

AUTO RACING

Formula One canceled the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi in September.

Intercontinental Drifting Cup in Sochi in June canceled.

BADMINTON

Russia and Belarus athletes and officials banned from participating in all Badminton World Federation tournaments from March 8. Also, all BWF events in Russia and Belarus canceled. However, a few Russian players at two Para events in Spain this week and next week allowed to play as already on site, but as neutrals with no flags or anthems.

BASKETBALL

EuroLeague suspended Russian clubs CSKA Moscow, UNICS Kazan, and Zenit St. Petersburg, with all three in top eight standings. Lokomotiv Kuban Krasnodar was also suspended from second-tier EuroCup.

SPORT CLIMBING

Boulder and Speed World Cup in Moscow in April to be relocated.

CURLING

European championships in Perm, Russia, in November to be relocated.

World Curling Federation begun process to remove Russian entries from women’s world championship in Canada this month and men’s world championship in Las Vegas in April.

EQUESTRIAN

International Equestrian Federation canceled all remaining events this year in Russia (51) and Belarus (six), including the Eurasian Championships in Moscow in July.

FENCING

Alisher Usmanov, a Russian, stepped down as president of the International Fencing Federation.

GYMNASTICS

The International Gymnastics Federation canceled all World Cup and World Challenge Cup events in Russia and Belarus. Russia and Belarus flags and anthems banned at all FIG events. Canceled events included an acrobatics World Cup in Oktyabrskiy, Russia, in May, and a trampoline World Cup in St. Petersburg in September.

FIELD HOCKEY

Russia booted from Women’s Junior World Cup in South Africa in April.

ICE HOCKEY

Russia and Belarus banned from all International Ice Hockey Federation events. Russia men out of world championship in May. World junior championships in Russia in 2023 moved to Serbia. NHL suspended all business dealings in Russia. Finland’s Jokerit club withdrew from Kontinental Hockey League conference quarterfinals.

JUDO

Kazan Grand Slam, a World Judo Tour event, in May canceled. Russia President Vladimir Putin suspended as honorary president and ambassador of International Judo Federation. Sergey Soloveychik, Russian president of the European Judo Union, resigned.

KARATE

Karate 1-Premier League event in Moscow in October to be relocated.

MODERN PENTATHLON

Russia and Belarus athletes and officials banned from all International Modern Pentathlon Union events.

ROWING

Russia and Belarus athletes and officials banned from World Rowing events.

RUGBY

Russia and Belarus suspended from all internationals and cross-border club events. Russia men’s team barred from Rugby Europe Championship and qualifying for the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Russia women’s team barred from Rugby Europe Championship, sevens world series, and qualifying for the Rugby World Cup Sevens in South Africa in September. Russian Rugby Union’s membership of World Rugby suspended.

SKATING

Russia and Belarus banned from all International Skating Union events, including world figure skating championships in France this month.

SKIING

All International Ski Federation events in Russia to the end of the season canceled or relocated. The World Cup cancellations included ski cross in Sunny Valley last weekend, aerials in Yaroslavl last week and Moscow this Saturday; moguls in Kuzbass this weekend; cross-country in Tyumen this month; and women’s ski jumping in Nizhny Tagil and Chaikovsky this month. Russian athletes to compete under FIS flag and anthem.

SOCCER

FIFA and UEFA suspend Russia national teams and clubs from all competitions. National men’s team barred from World Cup qualifying playoffs this month and UEFA Nations League from June. National women’s team banned from Women’s European Championship in July.

Champions League final in May relocated from St. Petersburg to Paris. Spartak Moscow barred from Europa League last 16.

UEFA canceled sponsorship from Russian energy company Gazprom which covered Champions League, UEFA national team competitions and the 2024 European Championship.

SQUASH

World junior championships in St. Petersburg, Russia, in August to be relocated.

SWIMMING

World governing body FINA rules all Russia and Belarus athletes and officials to compete as neutrals with no country flag, colors or symbols. FINA Order awarded to Russian President Vladimir Putin withdrawn. World junior championships in Kazan, Russia, in August canceled. Diving world series in Kazan in April canceled.

TAEKWONDO

World Taekwondo and European Taekwondo Union will not organize or recognize any events in Russia and Belarus. Russia and Belarus flags and anthems banned at all international events. World Taekwondo withdrew honorary 9th dan black belt conferred on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

TENNIS

International Tennis Federation canceled all of its events in Russia and postponed a minor tournament in Ukraine in April. Russia is the defending champion in the Davis Cup and Billie Jean King Cup.

VOLLEYBALL

Men’s world championship in Russia in August to be relocated.

Volleyball National League games in Russia in June and July to be relocated.

WEIGHTLIFTING

European youth championships in Kazan, Russia, in August to be relocated.

OTHER

At Winter Paralympics, Russia and Belarus to compete as neutrals with no national flag, anthem or symbols in Beijing starting on Friday.

SportAccord World Sport and Business Summit in Yekaterinburg, Russia, in May canceled

END

end

Hollywood studios pause new film releases in Russia

(zerohedge)

Hollywood Studios Pause New Film Releases In Russia

TUESDAY, MAR 01, 2022 – 11:05 PM

Over the last seven decades, Hollywood has served as the unofficial — but massively influential — propaganda arm of the US government. If national interests are so required, film studios will create wartime propaganda and or even, like we’re witnessing today, pause theatrical releases in Russia.

The Walt Disney Company announced Monday that “given the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and the tragic humanitarian crisis, we are pausing the release of theatrical films in Russia, including the upcoming Turning Red from Pixar.” Dinsey is the first major studio to protest Russia amid the invasion of Ukraine five days ago.

“We will make future business decisions based on the evolving situation. In the meantime, given the scale of the emerging refugee crisis, we are working with our NGO partners to provide urgent aid and other humanitarian assistance to refugees,” the studio continued.

WarnerMedia, a division of AT&T Inc., followed next by announcing it would delay the release of “The Batman.”

“In light of the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, WarnerMedia is pausing the release of its feature film ‘The Batman’ in Russia,” the studio said in a statement. “We will continue to monitor the situation as it evolves. We hope for a swift and peaceful resolution to this tragedy.”

And Sony is delaying all of its theatrical releases in the country, including the upcoming “Morbius.”

The Motion Picture Association (MPA) said in a statement Monday that it “stands with the international community in upholding the rule of law and condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

“On behalf of our member companies, who lead the film, TV and streaming industry, we express our strongest support for Ukraine’s vibrant creative community who, like all people, deserve to live and work peacefully,” MPA said.

So whatever the US government is committed too, such as collapsing the Russian economy via a series of sanctions, you can bet Hollywood wouldn’t be too far behind. And maybe as studios pause theatrical releases in the country, it’s only a matter of time before studios gears up for pro-NATO-themed propaganda.

end

70% Of Russian Crude Trade Is Frozen As Surgut Again Fails To Sell Any Urals In Big Tenders

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 12:35 PM

As discussed yesterday in “Buyers Balk At Russian Oil Purchases Despite Record Discounts, Sanction Carve Outs” the bevy of Russian sanctions have had the unintended consequence of also freezing Russian oil exports – despite explicit carve outs in terms set by Western nations – as buyers balk and boycott Russian crude sales amid fears that the country’s energy supplies may eventually fall under a sanctions regime anyway, leaving buyers stuck with millions in barrels they can’t then sell to downstream clients.

Today was a clear example of just that: citing traders with knowledge of tenders, Bloomberg reported that Surgutneftegaz (better known as Surgut) failed to award two tenders with combined volume of 880k tons of Urals for March loading.

This was the third time that Surgut failed to sell any of the crude it was offering, “highlighting the difficulty for Russian producers to find buyers after the nation’s invasion into Ukraine.”

In a separate, smaller tender, Surgut was offering 8 cargoes of 100k tons each from Baltic ports, and another 80k tons cargo from Black Sea in a separate tender. It was unclear if any bidders stepped up for those.

Of course, the longer Russia, and its roughly 6 mm barrels in daily oil exports remain stuck, the greater the cumulative price shock will be. Commenting on this, Bloomberg’s Alaric Nightingale said that there’s a clear and obvious short-term supply shock for Russian oil and that’s why prices are marching ever higher, having hit a decade high of $114 earlier today before stabilizing around $110.

As Nightingale continues, “tanker companies don’t want to take it and refineries are looking elsewhere. There is a huge risk in being involved in Russian barrels. Imagine you are a trader of Russian crude. You have to get the barrels and freight cheap enough, and then you have to know you have an end buyer who’ll take the cargo no matter what. Some tanker owners will go at the right price, some won’t. Some refineries are already voting with their feet.”

In short, there is a sense across the petroleum supply chain that sanctions aren’t done yet or aren’t well-enough understood yet. That’s why things are getting blocked.

Meanwhile, Energy Aspects estimates that 70% of Russia’s crude trade is frozen but that will drop to 20% when there’s greater visibility on sanctions.

While that’s a reasonable proposition but there is an x-factor: could the final sanctions package actually be even more punitive for the country’s exports? Even if 20% were to end up frozen, that would still be a very bullish final scenario for the oil market; as a reminder, Goldman recently noted that even assuming full Russian output, the market remains undersupplied and continued disruptions will push oil much higher.

So what does the market think? Well, the 10x increase in Brent $200 June calls in the past week should give you a sense of what may be coming.

end

Air travel & more

Inbox

As we all know Russian Airlines have effectively been shut out from Western Air Space. Even travel for Russian citizens in the west has become very difficult . One wondered what the response would be?
Today, Russia banned airlines from 36 countries from using their air space. This adversely affects 20% of global air cargo. Two things result; transit times increase and does fuel burn as airlines will have to travel around Russian air space making all such goods flown more expensive in countries receiving such cargo. All such goods just became more expensive to buy. Call it stagflation.
I imagine that soon if not already the entire western world is monetizing debt as there are no buyers. It is why they have been pushing digital currencies and events likely are now out running ability to keep up with debt creation. Meanwhile, Russia tells its’ citizens to buy gold.
Overnight the Russian army completely smashed the Ukrainian army in Bucha, which is a suburb of Kiev and is approximately 10 miles from the city center. And there are ongoing battles with both sides absorbing losses. There are a number of other towns and cities that are now stable and under Russian control.
Russia wants 3 things: 1/ complete demilitarization, means also no alliances; 2/ de-Nazification, which means the end of the Azov battalion; 3/ agreement that Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk are no longer part of Ukraine
And last night, NATO’s future naval base in Ochakove which was fully financed by Britain has been totally destroyed by Iskander M missiles. It’s operation was a direct threat to the Crimea and the south of Russia as the Brits intended to put certain missiles batteries there. They took a direct hit financially. Similarly the boats they are refitting at a cost of $ 2 billion which they are 100% financing are not longer required, so another financial loss.

On the battlefield//update

Update as of yesterday

Inbox

In red are the most recent Russian movements yesterday. The only major progress is inside the purpose square when Russian forces have penetrated deep in the rear of both Odessa and Kiev. And is highlighted in RED by the arrows So I have to wonder – are they planning a strategic cauldron??? Do not know but the black bar on the left shows what is likely to happen. This will give complete fire power control with artillery and drones doing much off the work. At that point even small groups will likely be exposed.

Mariupol is, as stated earlier is totally closed off and heavy street fighting is taking place. This city will be forcibly denazified in the next couple of days. Likely by Saturday things will return to normal, whatever that new normal is.

The reality is that all good’s movement to Odessa and Mariupol is now under Russian control and teh point of this will be clearer soon enough.

The operational cauldron in the east is still not physically closed by Russian troops. But, as I already mentioned, the no man’s land between the two Russian prongs is completely controlled by artillery fire which means that while small groups can still make it out, it’s over for the heavy Ukie armor, artillery and Nazi death-squads who are STILL shelling Donetsk which, of course, nobody reports.

The roads in and out of Kiev are all under Russian control with civilians being denied to leave by roving criminal gangs who are now fighting amongst themselves and committing all manner of crime. Zelensky has unleashed a human tragedy by arming criminals let out of jail.

Meanwhile, customers of Russian oil supplies are requesting that Russian vessels deliver, which suggests concern about Russian oil shipment seizures at sea. While likely a stretch, but who knows. In any case this will be pressure on supply chain movement as there will be a shortage of Russian vessels. A future question is when will Russia tell some customers like America, FOB Russia? Because so far it has been Russian boats delivering diesel and oil to America and it would not surprise that this changes. Whether independent charter vessels take up deliveries will the question. The result is higher oil prices are coming shortly and oil could hit $150 which will shut down economies.

For all intents no movement or grains is occurring from Odessa or Mariupol which will translate into higher commodity prices by default.

More later. ….

Opinion

Inbox

All we can do is pray that this is resolved diplomatically. But we have no real-world leaders right now and they are all just listening to their military advice who never saw a war they didn’t want to fight. This is a wet dream come true for NATO and the military if they think they can see Putin defeated. At that point, the fate of Russia hangs in the balance and it is time to push the button. What we saw over the weekend is a leader in Putin who will if pushed, push that button. Story is his family is evacuated to Siberia for safety is reasonable given what is occurring given the hysteria and lack of western leadership. Sadly, one cannot help but feel we are all being convinced to hate Russians, just like we were all being convinced that we should hide in terror from COVID, which would hunt each of us down. Today, every Russian is a terror to be seen. One imagines that should internal pressures get too severe, an option for Russia would be to back a internal Ruble with gold and make that non convertible outside the country. The war in Ukraine is serious for a number of reasons. Not just for the Ukrainian people who need to cast off the hold the criminals have over them; but also for Russia. People should not assume that the slow pace of encirclement to save lives for Russian weakness. This is a classical example of differences between Russians and the WEST which has a bomb, bomb mentality to flatten everything and then mop up. Should Putin have his back up against the wall and it appears that Russia would lose in the Ukraine, then the entire fate of Russia would be on the line and he could then unleash surgical tactical nuclear weapons. Because this simply cannot be allowed and the recent command for the nuclear forces to be on high alert was a stand off message to NATO and America and even Ukraine. We should not be cheering on for a Ukrainian victory because would be devastating for the entire world. Zelensky is pitching global war to save himself knowing what happens and that is not to be applauded. A Ukrainian victory would put Russia’s superpower status in question and that is not something Putin will or can accept. And no doubt this was thought through before Russia moved. Time has passed for the Ukraine to stay the way it was and it will now change. Whether they can move on when Russia leaves in time remains to be seen.

devastating for the entire world. Zelensky is pitching global war to save himself knowing what happens and that is not to be applauded. A Ukrainian victory would put Russia’s superpower status in question and that is not something Putin will or can accept. And no doubt this was thought through before Russia moved. Time has passed for the Ukraine to stay the way it was and it will now change. Whether they can move on when Russia leaves in time remains to be seen.

end

Nearly 1 Million Refugees Flee Ukraine As Russia Warns NATO ‘Stay Out’

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 09:26 AM

Ukraine’s Presidential Office has said the second round of talks with Russia are moving forward, after there were prior doubts on whether they would happen. “Now it’s official. The second round of talks between Ukraine and the occupier will take place today,” a statement said. “The delegations will be in the same composition,” it added, while stressing Ukraine will “hold its ground“.

The West has ratcheted up the pressure on Russia as heavy fighting and bombardment is still centered on Ukraine’s second largest city of Kharkiv. City authorities have said a Russian cruise missile hit and destroyed the city council building – though there were no immediate reports of casualties. Feeling the pressure of the US and EU-led economic war which seeks to severely punish Moscow short of actual military intervention, the Kremlin issued a statement Wednesday saying it “hopes NATO has the good sense to avoid conflict” as reported by state-run TASS.

As of Tuesday, a UN report cited at least 536 civilians killed, among these 13 children. Refugees have continued fleeing, mostly across borders leading West, with the UN’s High Commissioner for Refugees announcing that since last Thursday’s (Feb.24) start of the invasion, it’s counted 835,928 refugees who have fled. “More than half of them (453,982) fled via Poland. Another 116,348 went to Hungary, according to the UNHCR,” CNN cites a new report as saying.

Additionally the organization counted 96,000 refugees who fled into the Russian Federation from the breakaway republics Donetsk and Luhansk. This occurred between February 18 and 23rd. Though the New York Times and others have opted to label anyone escaping the fighting into Russia as “migrants” – this makes almost one million total refugees who fled the war-torn chaos by the first week’s close.

According to the latest broad update on where the bulk of the fighting is taking place, CNN describes:

Russia’s military appears to be steadily advancing on key southern cities. Russia’s Ministry of Defense said its forces now fully held Kherson, though Ukrainian authorities denied it, saying “some parts are under our control.”
Fighting also continues in nearby Mariupol, where heavy shelling left dozens injured, its mayor said. Russian troops and Russian-backed separatist have surrounded the city on three sides. The Kremlin hopes to take Mariupol to complete a land corridor that would link the Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 from Ukraine, with southern Russia.

At the completion of one full week since the invasion kicked off, BBC summarizes the latest big ground-level developments as follows:

Russian paratroopers have landed in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city
Russia’s defence ministry claims to have captured southern city Kherson
People in Kyiv told to leave by Russia before planned air strikes
Russia’s 40-mile-long convoy remains just to the north of Kyiv

Addressing the crisis, President Biden devoted about the first 12 minutes of his State of the Union address Tuesday night to warning Russia and outlining what the US would and wouldn’t do. Importantly, he emphasized that he would not send American troops to enter conflict with Russia, but is committed to defending current NATO territory and allies.

“Throughout our history we’ve learned this lesson — when dictators do not pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos,” Biden said. “They keep moving. And the costs and threats to America and the world keep rising.”

“Let me be clear. Our forces are not engaged and will not engage in the conflict with Russian forces in Ukraine. Our forces are not going to Europe to fight Ukraine, but to defend our NATO allies in the event that Putin decides to keep moving west.” He said this of additional thousands of troops recently deployed to Germany as well as NATO ‘Eastern flank’ countries.

Among the new US punitive measures unveiled in the speech included joining European countries in closing airspace to Russian flights. “Today I’m announcing that we are joining our allies and closing off the American airspace to all Russian flights,” he said. The White House has also since said that targeting oil exports is “not off the table”.

Also notable was this bizarre moment, when the president referred to Ukrainians as “Iranians”…

Really a not so inconsequential gaffe considering the high stakes of the crisis in a time of war…

At the same time the West has continued ratcheting the economic war to further isolate and punish Russia, with on Wednesday the EU disconnecting seven Russian banks from the SWIFT international payment settlement system.

While the countries largest bank, Sberbank, has been spared from this latest action, the following major lenders were given 10 days to halt all SWIFT operations: VTB, Rossiya, Otkritie, Novikombank, Promsvyazbank, Sovcombank, and VEB.RF – according to the list confirmed in Russian media. Notably VTB is Russia’s second largest bank.

“All these banks that we have listed under SWIFT… are all [included] based on their connection to the state and the implicit connection to the war effort. We have not gone for a blanket ban across the whole banking system,” a European Union official told Reuters. EU/USA/Central Bank of Russia/Russian banks

end

Russia will be in technical default as they refuse to pay coupon interest on bonds

(zerohedge)

“Game Over?” – Russia To Be In Technical Default Within Hours

TUESDAY, MAR 01, 2022 – 08:15 PM

More than two decades ago, on August 17, 1998, Russia defaulted on its debt and devalued the ruble, sparking a political crisis that culminated with Vladimir Putin replacing Boris Yeltsin and which also eventually resulted in the spectacular implosion of a then little known hedge fund called Long Term Capital Management (which was staffed to the gills with “brilliant” Nobel prize winners) which after receiving a Fed-led Wall Street bailout, ushered in the era of too big to fail.

We bring this up because in just a few hours, Russia will be in another technical default.

Amid the flurry of capital controls imposed by Moscow today, the Russian central bank banned coupon payments to foreign owners of ruble bonds known as OFZs in what it said was a temporary step to shore up markets in the wake of international sanctions. What it really is, is a technical default on upcoming interest and maturity payments, with a trigger due as soon as tomorrow.

The Bank of Russia issued the instruction to depositaries and registries as part of a raft of measures announced this week that included a freeze on local security sales by foreigners. It could leave foreign investors who held almost 3 trillion rubles ($29 billion) in the debt at the start of February unable to collect income on their holdings, which are already blocked from sale by restrictions.

“Issuers have the right to make decisions on the payment of dividends and the making of other payments on securities and transfer them to the accounting system,” the central bank said in an emailed reply to questions. “However, the payments themselves will not be made by depositories and registrars to foreign clients. This also applies to OFZ.”

The decision by the central bank was taken to “avoid mass sales of Russian securities, the withdrawal of funds from the Russian financial market and to support financial stability,” it said.

With as much as half of its foreign reserves frozen abroad by sanctions aimed at punishing the Kremlin for invading Ukraine, the Bank of Russia said Monday it would harden capital controls with a ban on transferring foreign currency abroad. While initially it clarified that the step wasn’t aimed at stopping the servicing of debt, some investors and economists said the phrasing of the decree could amount to a default.

“Game over? I think they underestimated how far sanctions will go and now don’t have much left to do,” Viktor Szabo, a fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management in London told Bloomberg. “All Russian markets have fallen apart.”

“This will likely be a technical default, we’ll see how long it goes on for,” said Nick Eisinger, co-head of emerging-markets active fixed income at Vanguard Asset Management in London. “We also see strong likelihood of technical default on Eurobonds at the sovereign level.”

The central bank didn’t specify how long the ban will last. On Monday, the Interfax news service reported the temporary suspension will be in effect for half a year unless the regulator lifts it ahead of time. The decision underscored how rapidly Russia’s free-market credentials have disintegrated since the Ukraine invasion.

But it won’t matter: just a one ban day will be enough to push Russia into a technical default – the next coupon payment on OFZ bonds is due Wednesday on notes maturing in 2024, according to Bloomberg.

The news came shortly after we learned that the world’s biggest settlement systems Euroclear and Clearsteam are no longer handling Russian assets — reversing the much-heralded opening of the local debt market to international investors nine years ago.

Russian sovereign bonds collapsed last week, sending the yield on the 10-year benchmark up 240 basis points to 12.28%. The ruble’s drop of more than 20% so far this year is the worst slump globally, prices compiled by Bloomberg show.

“A potentially weaker willingness on the part of the Russian government to service its debt on time and in full, raise the probability of more severe credit outcomes for foreign holders of Russian debt securities,” Moody’s Investors Service said in an statement.

And while Russia is about to re-default – something it certainly has experience with – its economy devastated yet rich in natural resources, the question is how the US will handle the brutal, new reality where oil is now virtually assured to hit $150 if not $200 at a time when the main US output is hyperfinancialization, with the value of financial assets at last check some 6.3x times greater than GDP.

For the answer, please reread “Shades Of 2008 As Oil Decouples From Everything.”

end

Russia//CARGO CONTAINER SHIPPER/MAERSK//

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

GLOBAL ISSUES

Bank Of Canada Hikes Rates As Expected, Says Ukraine “Major Source Of Uncertainty”

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 10:10 AM

The Bank of Canada begins its tightening cycle by lifting interest rates by 25bps – as expected – and signaled more hikes to come in its attempts to tamp inflation down from a three-decade high.

“The policy rate is the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument. As the economy continues to expand and inflation pressures remain elevated, the Governing Council expects interest rates will need to rise further.”

BoC played up economic strength, flagging yesterday’s stronger-than-expected 6.7% fourth quarter GDP growth rate.

“This is stronger than the Bank’s projection and confirms its view that economic slack has been absorbed.”

But admitted Inflation is a bigger problem than expected…

“Inflation is now expected to be higher in the near term than projected in January. Persistently elevated inflation is increasing the risk that longer-run inflation expectations could drift upwards,” the statement said. “The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to the 2% target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.”

However, no details were offered about the BoC’s plan to wind-down its bond holdings.

In a likely taste of what is to come from Powell and his pals at The Fed, BoC added the following to their statement:

“The unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia is a major new source of uncertainty.”

Specifically on Ukraine, BoC notes:

“Prices for oil and other commodities have risen sharply. This will add to inflation around the world, and negative impacts on confidence and new supply disruptions could weigh on global growth. Financial market volatility has increased. The situation remains fluid and we are following events closely.”

The excuses for a pause are being set.

The reaction in the Loonie is very modest (small rise)…

Source: Bloomberg

Here is BoC’s full redline (quite a dramatic difference)…

courtesy of Newsquawk

VACCINE INJURIES

Pfizer’s new data on injuries from the vaccine.

a must view:

Pfizer data

Inbox

Vaccine Impact/

Poison Control Centers Issue Warning on Home COVID Test Kits as More than 200 Cases of Poisoning Reported Already

March 1, 2022 5:58 pm

Last December we published a video report from Greg Reese of Infowars.com that a lethal drug that is included in Abbott’s BinaxNOW COVID-19 Home Test Kit has a history of killing people even in small doses. These test kits are NOT FDA approved, but were fast-tracked through emergency use authorization as the Biden Administration invoked the Defense Protection Act to spend $3 BILLION to purchase and make available a half billion of these COVID home testing kits for all Americans. With many of these kits now having been delivered to people’s homes, poison control centers around the U.S. have sounded the alarm over the deadly sodium azide chemical in these home test kits, as more than 200 reports of poisoning have now been reported from exposure to this chemical. Once again, those of us “conspiracy theorists” in the alternative media were reporting the dangers of these home test kits months before the pharma-funded corporate media sources were. I am quite sure new millionaires were made and new businesses were started simply because the U.S. Government gave them $3 BILLION to make these test kits. These Wall Street Billionaires and Bankers do not care one bit about your health or even your life, and they buy out the politicians to make sure their products are purchased, not in a free market, but in what has basically become socialized healthcare in the U.S. now. Almost all of these COVID products are pure junk, either having no health benefit to the consumer, or worse, harming and killing the consumer, from masks, to COVID test kits, to ventilators, to vaccines – NONE of these products would ever survive in a free market where people had to pay for them, because it would become well known that these products are junk, and everyone would stop buying them. But instead, the Government buys them, and either gives them away free, or mandates their use as a requirement to participate in society. Welcome to the new Socialist Republic of the United States.

World Health Organization Moving Forward on GLOBAL Vaccine Passport Program

March 1, 2022 6:20 pm

Countries all over the world are totally scrubbing their Covid measures, mask mandates and social distancing rules. The CDC has changed their guidance on vaccine doses, and said people don’t need to wear masks anymore. Boris has done the same, and (some) of the UK’s emergency powers are going to expire soon. It seems like Covid is over, and the good guys won, right? Well, not exactly. The pandemic narrative may be fading away, but certainly not without a trace. Covid might be dying, but vaccine passports are still very much alive. This week, while the eyes of the world are fixed on Ukraine and the next wave of propaganda, the World Health Organization is launching an initiative to create a “trust network” on vaccination and international travel.

Michael Every

on the major topics of the day

Michael Every…

Rabobank: War May Delay, But Should Not Derail Central Banks’ Plans

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 09:45 AM

From Michael Every of Rabobank

A common enemy

Nothing unites people like a common enemy. Putin is learning that lesson the hard way. His plans to turn Ukraine into a Belarus-style puppet state and avoid NATO expanding east so far seems to have achieved the polar opposite. The West stands united, and Putin’s actions are driving countries that have been neutral to date into the arms of the Western alliance.

The Finnish attitude towards NATO membership is shifting rapidly since Russia invaded Ukraine, and a petition for a referendum on joining NATO forced parliament to discuss the matter yesterday. The debate did not lead to an immediate exercise of Finland’s option to join the alliance, but Prime Minister Marin stated that these discussions “will continue in an organized, calm, measured and considered manner.” She added that “We all felt that the security situation has changed significantly,” and “are seeking the most sensible way forward for Finnish security.” The fact that the possibility of joining NATO is actively being considered is still a major shift in thinking from a Finland that has historically held off on the idea out of fear that it might anger Russia.

Similarly, Ukrainian President made an emotional appeal to MEPs to join the European Union through an accelerated procedure. Moving as his speech was, it is not up to the European Parliament, but the heads of state, to decide on these matters. Eight of them –including Poland and the Baltics– have already backed Zelensky’s request to become an EU member. Not all countries may be as eager to accept Ukraine’s application, though. One obvious concern is the implication that accession would have in terms of the EU’s mutual defense clause, considering that Ukraine is currently at war. No one will sell you insurance while your house is already burning either. However, Zelensky’s haste is understandable: considering that it can easily take a decade for countries to become EU members, the house may already be burnt to the ground!

Even without Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty, some countries may prefer to tread lightly. Putin’s entire campaign was designed around the goal to avoid that Ukraine joins the Western alliance. The Russian president is already resorting to much more drastic measures after the Russian army met a much fiercer resistance than they had probably anticipated.

And while the West unites, Russia finds itself increasingly isolated. China has been trying to balance its relationships with both sides of the conflict to safeguard its own interests. However, the country now officially referred to the conflict as a ‘war’, a word China had carefully avoided so far, and Beijing expressed “extreme concern” about the potential for civilian casualties.

Speaking to Ukraine’s foreign minister, China also indicated that it is willing to mediate in the conflict. China may see the current crisis as an opportunity to present itself as a ‘defender of the current world order’ (if only to buy time for itself), as the US has –over the past decade– taken a less prominent role when it comes to policing the world. That process seems to have taken a turn now with the recent sanctions on Russia and President Biden’s strong remarks regarding the situation in Ukraine in his State of the Union Address (which even drew unusual applause). Still, the fact that the US has already chosen a side in this conflict could also hamper it as being able to provide the Russian leadership an off-ramp in this situation which –thus far– has only escalated. Secondly, the President also has big fish to fry in his own country, as underlined in that same speech. Despite the global importance of the war in Ukraine, Biden spoke just 10 minutes of his hour-address on the subject. The US President spent the majority of his speech on domestic affairs like his “Build Back Better” initiatives that have basically hit the rocks.

Back to markets and the impact of recent sanctions, Bloomberg finds that amidst all this, Russia ETFs have seen inflows last week. Like Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise, I can’t help but wonder who can stomach that risk now. Sure, an entire generation of investors has now been conditioned to believe that monetary policy will always come to the rescue during a dip, but it’s hard to see how the Central Bank of Russia can save equity investors from sanctions and boycotts. For the same reasons, Russian equities don’t seem to be the next ‘Gamestonk’ that can be propped back up purely by willpower and memes. Moreover, I highly doubt that Russian assets can expect the same sympathy as some of the Main Street names a year or so ago. In fact, that sympathy may be reserved for Ukraine, which sold USD 277 million in war bonds yesterday. Redditors are looking to buy [warning – strong language] while meme-ishly suggesting that they might be able to “name some tanks” as if this were a crowdfunding campaign.

Meanwhile, the rest of the market is more concerned with the economic fallout of the war, resulting in a sharp selloff of equities, as investors flocked back into fixed income. 10y Bund yields dropped more than 20bps between the open and close. The growing prospects of a more protracted war and increasingly brutal tactics employed by the Russian military are casting doubts over the economic outlook. Over the past few weeks we have written extensively about the potentially stagflationary combination of higher inflation and lower growth as a result of the conflict – piling on to the headache that central banks were already facing. For several central banks this may come down to choosing the lesser of two evils.

Crucially, though, the war has not fundamentally changed the choice between fighting inflation or supporting growth; it only exacerbates the potential extremes of the two outcomes. Of course, uncertainty weighs in as well, and central banks may be wary of potential liquidity stress – even if that seems less likely than in previous crises. On the other hand, prospects of less hawkish central bankers may also reignite investors’ concerns about the high inflation rates. Despite the sharp rise in consumer price indices around the globe, they haven’t even nearly kept up with the increased costs faced by producers. Should demand slow more sharply in the face of war-related uncertainty, this could also weigh on the prospects for corporate margins and thus force a more cautious stance from investors.

So we believe that the war may delay, but should not derail central banks’ plans. After some dovish remarks from the ECB’s Rehn, markets pared back their rate hike expectations for 2022 completely. And the fact that not only Bunds, but also peripheral yields dropped sharply indicates that traders may also have reassessed the prospect of more protracted asset purchases – or at the very least that they have priced out the possibility that Lagarde will announce that the ECB will end its net purchases more quickly.

Day Ahead

Similarly, markets also lowered their expectations for a potential 50bp move by the Fed this month, even though the economic damage will probably be less in the US than in Europe. Fed Chair Powell testifies to the House today, so it may be his turn to reassure markets that the Fed will not lose sight of inflation.

7. OIL ISSUES

WTI hits $110.00 per barrel. The emergency oil release will not do a thing. It is only 3 days of oil

(zerohedge)

Oil Hits $110 As Biden Begins SOTU Address; Goldman Says Emergency Oil Release Won’t Do Jack

TUESDAY, MAR 01, 2022 – 09:06 PM

With Joe Biden set to begin his first State of the Union address any second, it is only appropriate that WTI oil has exploded higher, and just printed at an 8 year high of 108.63, rising more than $3 since the cash market close, and more than $10 in the past 24 hours!

At the same time, Brent which traditionally trades at a premium, just hit $110:

*BRENT CRUDE OIL EXTENDS RALLY ABOVE $110 A BARREL

One reason for that is a rather grim assessment from Goldman which echoes what we said earlier, namely that today’s IEA release of 60 million barrels of emergency oil reserves will do exactly nothing to halt oil’s tremendous surge higher.

As Goldman’s Damien Courvalin writes, writing about the release of 60 mb of emergency oil reserves following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “we do not view this as sufficient relief, representing an only 1-month offset to a potential disruption to one-third of Russia’s 6 mb/d seaborne oil export flows, for example, consistent with the rally in prices after today’s announcement.“

As such, Goldman reiterates its view – discussed here yesterday – that only demand destruction – through even higher prices – is now likely the only sufficient rebalancing mechanism, with supply elasticity no longer relevant in the face of such a potential large and immediate supply shock.

This leaves risk to our one-month $115/bbl Brent price forecast still skewed to the upside, with today’s $105/bbl spot prices only at the level we believed was required to balance the oil market prior to any escalation in Ukraine.

Furthermore, Courvalin writes that a short-term deescalation or a potentially faster ramp-up in OPEC+ production would also not derail the bank’s view for structurally higher prices, with Dec-23 Brent $24/bbl below our forecast; “Similarly, we do not expect a large price sell-off should an agreement with Iran be reached soon. Case in point, the global oil deficit in February is turning out to be twice as large as our above-consensus forecast while Iraq is experiencing 0.5 mb/d of outages, enough – if sustained and combined – to fully nullify Iran’s potential return to the global oil market.”

All of that means that Brent $200 calls expiring this summer look quite cheap.

The silver lining, is that at least one person is delighted by this tremendous ascent in oil prices: Jerome Powell. As we said almost a month ago, the quickest and safest way to “burn out” inflation is to send oil to $200… triggering a global recession if not depression.

end

Oil Surges Into ‘Super-Backwardation’ After OPEC+ Sticks To Production Plan, Shuns Biden’s Demands

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 08:06 AM

In what one observer called “the fastest one yet” – the meeting lasted just 13 minutes, beating last month’s record for brevity – OPEC+ 23-nation coalition led by Saudi Arabia ratified an increase of 400,000 barrels a day on Wednesday, continuing the gradual restoration of output halted during the pandemic, according to delegate sources.

This was merely ratifying the plan – as expected – and notably gives no deference to President Biden’s urgings for the cartel to raise production to rescue his approval ratings at home.

The quota breakdown is as follows:

Source: @Amena_Bakr

Have tried twice yesterday to send headlines around the world of a 60mm barrel release from global strategic reserves, and now OPEC+ not helping, oil prices are re-extending gains this morning with WTI back above $110…

Additionally, this has all sent WTI and Brent time-spreads into what is being called ‘super-backwardation’ as WTI M1-M6 spreads explode to record highs suggesting the tightness of current oil markets is becoming extreme…

Are you ready for $4 gas at the pump, America?

Get back to work Mr.President.

END

Nord Steam 2 firs all employees after sanctions. May file for bankrupcty

(zerohedge)

Operator Of Nord Stream 2 Fires All Employees After US Sanctions

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 10:25 AM

Update (0940ET): In a brief statement released this morning, Nord Stream 2 said that “We cannot confirm the media reports that Nord Stream 2 has filed for bankruptcy.”

Switzerland-based Nord Stream 2 AG “only informed the local authorities that the company had to terminate contracts with employees following the recent geopolitical developments leading to the imposition of U.S. sanctions on the company.”

Additionally, the company said that it “can confirm that we have taken down this website due to serious and continuous attacks from outside.”

“Unfortunately, our mobile and fixed network lines are also not reachable – at least for the time being.
Swisscom was not able to provide a proper mobile phone number transfer, as promised and negotiated.”

* * *

As Isabel van Bruegn detailed via The Epoch Times earlier, the operator of Nord Stream 2 has terminated all contracts with employees after it was hit with U.S. sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project represents an $11 billion investment from Russia and is designed to carry 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia to Germany every year. It is registered in Switzerland and owned by Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom.

The United States sanctioned Nord Stream 2 AG last week after Russia recognized two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine prior to its invasion of the country, which has prompted a wave of economic sanctions by the West.

“Following the recent geopolitical developments leading to the imposition of U.S. sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG, the company had to terminate contracts with employees. We very much regret this development,” Nord Stream 2 AG told Reuters in an emailed statement.

Switzerland’s economy minister Guy Parmelin told Swiss radio service RTS on Monday that all 140 Nord Stream employees who worked for the company in the Swiss city of Zug had their contracts terminated.

Two unnamed sources also told Reuters that Nord Stream 2 AG is considering filing for insolvency.

“Nord Stream became insolvent because of last week’s U.S. sanctions,” Silvia Thalmann-Gut, economics director in the Swiss canton of Zug where the company is based, told public broadcaster SRF, according to Agence France-Press.

The Epoch Times reached out to Nord Stream 2 AG and Gazprom for comment.

The pipeline had not begun commercial operations because it was pending certification in Germany, which last week put this process on hold as a result of the escalating Ukraine crisis.

The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued an executive order on Feb. 23 authorizing “the wind down of transactions involving Nord Stream 2 AG” or “any entity in which Nord Stream 2 AG owns, directly or indirectly, a 50 percent or greater interest” by March 2.

President Joe Biden on Feb. 23 announced sanctions against Nord Stream 2 AG and its corporate officers “in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.”

“As I have made clear, we will not hesitate to take further steps if Russia continues to escalate,” the president said in a statement announcing the measures.

Biden added, “Through his actions, President [Vladimir] Putin has provided the world with an overwhelming incentive to move away from Russian gas and to other forms of energy.”

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

NEW ZEALAND

END

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1102 DOWN .0292 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY

USA/ YEN 115.31 UP 0.477 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3327 DOWN 0.0008

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 4.64 PTS OR 0.13%

Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 417.79 PTS OR 1/84%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.85% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT ITALY

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 417.79 PTS OR 1/84%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.64 PTS OR 0.13%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.28%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 451.69 PTS OR 1.68%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1926.90

silver:$25.05-

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.57 UP 16 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.86% UP 14 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.134% DOWN 4 AND 6/10 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.00%// UP 11 in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.54 UP 13 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 64 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.024% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.56% AND NOW ABOVE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1119 DOWN .0014 or 13 basis points

USA/Japan: 115.60 UP 0.752 OR YEN DOWN 75 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3359 DOWN 22 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP 59 BASIS pts to 1.2664

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED )..DOWN 6.3211

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3218

TURKISH LIRA: 14.11 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.134

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 11 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.834% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.1790 UP 7 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.63 UP 22 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 119.44 PTS OR 1.63%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 165.03 points or 1.19%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 129.08PTS OR 2.02%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 162.60PTS OR 1.99%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 278.52 PTS OR 1.14%

WTI Oil price 90.84 12: EST

Brent Oil: 97.01 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN / RUBLE RISES TO: 108.6 UP 5.93 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE UP BY 593 BASIS PTS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.024

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1123 DOWN .0009 OR DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3383 UP .0047 or 47 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 115.57 UP .736

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2640 DOWN .0083 (CDN dollar UP 83 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 112.21

Brent: 114.86

USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.871 UP 15 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.243 UP 14 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.11

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA ROUBLE: 99.29 DOWN 10.20ROUBLES (ROUBLE UP 102 PTS)//

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 596.65 PTS OR 1.79%

NASDAQ 100 UP 237.71 PTS OR 1.70%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 30.20 DOWN 3.12 PTS OR 9.36%

GLD: 179.73 DOWN 1.89 PTS OR 1.04%

SLV/ 23.37 DOWN .17 PTS OR 0.72%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Crypto & Crude Extend Yesterday’s Gains As Bonds & Stocks See Massive Roundtrip

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 04:01 PM

The narrative for today’s gains were 1) apparently positive headlines from Ukraine (though contradictory messages from both sides on talks were made), 2) ADP showed strong job gains (but embarrassed itself as practically useless with a massive revision to last month’s job losses), and 3) Powell affirmed a single rate-hike in March but opened the door for a 50bps hike in the future (reducing the odds of a 50bps hike , but the market shifted hawkishly on the actual rate trajectory).

Source: Bloomberg

And that prompted a buying-panic in stocks, reverting everything to Monday’s overnight highs. Small Caps led the charge with the rest of the majors grouped together..

Nasdaq just triggered its first death cross (50DMA breaks below the 200DMA) since the COVID-lockdown crash in April 2020… (is this a buying opportunity like the last two times?)

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder – amid the chaotic swings, equity index liquidity remains near record lows…

Nomura’s Charlie McElligott noted late on what was driving today’s reversal in stocks…

in single-stocks, we are seeing that old-school muscle memory likely out of Retail, buying short-dated Calls to further exploit / goose today’s broad market squeeze (along with a few fits of selling Puts), creating net positive Deltas there—highlighting AAPL and JPM below, notably as both Cyclical Value (Financials) and Secular Growth (Consumer Tech) rage today:

AAPL

JPM

The market is entirely schizophrenic…

Massive swing back higher in European and US sovereign yields today after yesterday’s collapse.

Treasuries also saw a huge roundtrip today… it looks like it was a mad dash scramble to try and get 30Y Yields back to even from Friday’s close…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y yields seem to have found resistance on the way back up though…

Source: Bloomberg

And McElligott notes this is what drove today’s reversal in bonds (aside from Powell’s comments)…

…critical in today’s Bond reversal is of course the “pent-up” Corporate supply release, which came back to market to take advantage of the recent move lower in interest rates; we see the UST long-end legging-lower with the nearly ~$20B of paper set to price this afternoon.

UK 2Y Yields dramatically reversed higher – above yesterday’s highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably the Dec 2022 rate-hike expectations soared today (the biggest 12m ahead spike in EDs since the chaos of the Great Financial Crisis)…

Source: Bloomberg

Breakevens soaring

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve tumbled (2s10s) to fresh cycle lows – its flattest since March 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar dipped today after retesting last week’s invasion spike highs…

Source: Bloomberg

The Ruble rallied back a bit today after a week of carnage…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin held on to gains and remains notably decoupled from tech stocks for now…

Source: Bloomberg

Wheat was limit-up at record highs… again…

Gold closed lower on the day but well off the lows of the day…

NatGas prices exploded higher in EU and UK today, smashing to record highs once again. The following chart offers some context for the cost of energy, shifting everything to barrel-of-oil-equivalents. At current levels, European Nat Gas is trading as if it were $340/bbl oil…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices soared even higher with WTI topping $112…

And that means $4 gas at the pump is imminent…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, it appears President Biden’s first State of the Union did nothing for his approval rating as former President Trump’s approval is the highest since before COVID lockdowns…

Source: Bloomberg

“mad world” indeed.

I)LATE LAST NIGHT /MORNING TRADING/

END

AFTERNOON

END

II) USA DATA

Do not pay attention to these clowns

(ADP)

ADP Embarrasses Itself With Almost A Million Job ‘Revision’ To January’s Dismal Data

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 08:26 AM

Following January’s dismal 300k job-loss ADP print, which was dramatically worse than the official BLS payrolls print, it appears the private employment survey has some catching up to do with analysts expecting a 375k jump in jobs in February.

The good news, ADP reports US companies added 475k job in Feb (more than expected); but ADP embarrassed itself greatly with a simply unbelievable revision for January from the -301k initial print to a massive +509k print revised!!

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 14th straight month of job gains (given the revision in Dec), but small businesses saw sizable job losses in February and Services jobs dominated the gains.

“Hiring remains robust but capped by reduced labor supply post-pandemic. Last month large companies showed they are well-poised to compete with higher wages and benefit offerings, and posted the strongest reading since the early days of the pandemic recovery,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

“Small companies lost ground as they continue to struggle to keep pace with the wages and benefits needed to attract a limited pool of qualified workers.”

But we are sure president Biden’s plan to raise minimum wages to $15 will help that right?

IIb) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATE STORIES

New York:

end

iii) USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//

iii) USA economic stories

Stocks Slip, Rate-Hike Odds Rise After Powell Prepared Remarks Released

WEDNESDAY, MAR 02, 2022 – 08:44 AM

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, part of the Fed chair’s semiannual testimony to Congress about the state of the economy. Most analysts expect Powell’s interlocutors to focus on his outlook for inflation as expectations for Q1 GDP growth continue to slide, stoking fears of stagflation.

Oil prices in the US have climbed to levels unseen since 2011 in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and global equity markets have been whipsawed as a result. Faced with this, investors have abandoned bets on the likelihood of a 50 basis point hike in March as the Fed struggles to balance geopolitical concerns with its domestic mandates to guarantee stable prices and strong job market.

Readers can watch his remarks live below:

In Powell’s prepared testimony, released around 0830ET on Wednesday, the Fed chairman affirmed that the central bank plans to hike rates after the March FOMC meeting, although Powell’s language was noncommittal on the magnitude of the hike.

“With inflation well above 2% and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month,” Powell said Wednesday in his prepared remarks before the House. “The process of removing policy accommodation in current circumstances will involve both increases in the target range of the federal funds rate and reduction in the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.”

Here are the Bloomberg headlines:

POWELL: WE EXPECT RATE HIKE IN MARCH WILL BE APPROPRIATE
POWELL: UKRAINE WAR’S IMPACT ON U.S. ECONOMY ‘HIGHLY UNCERTAIN’
POWELL: LABOR MARKET EXTREMELY TIGHT, INFLATION WELL ABOVE GOAL
POWELL: BAL. SHEET SHRINK TO BE PREDICTABLE, MAINLY VIA RUNOFF
POWELL: FED BALANCE SHEET SHRINKING TO BEGIN AFTER RATE LIFTOFF
POWELL: REMOVING ACCOMMODATION INVOLVES RATES AND BALANCE SHEET
POWELL: FED WILL USE TOOLS TO STOP INFLATION GETTING ENTRENCHED
POWELL: EXPECT INFLATION TO DECLINE OVER YEAR, WATCHING RISKS
POWELL: JOB OPENINGS HARD TO FILL, WAGES RISING AT FAST PACE
POWELL: IMPROVEMENT IN LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD
POWELL: WILL NEED TO BE NIMBLE TO RESPOND TO EVOLVING OUTLOOK

Meanwhile, expectations for March have trended back towards a hike of just 25 basis points.

Although, stocks slipped slightly after the release of Powell’s remarks.

Readers can find Powell’s prepared remarks below:

END

iv)swamp stories

Zuckerberg Election Funds Violated Wisconsin Bribery Laws, Special Counsel Finds

TUESDAY, MAR 01, 2022 – 07:55 PM

Approximately $9 million directed to five Democratic strongholds in Wisconsin violated the state’s prohibition on bribery, according to The Federalist‘s Margot Cleveland, citing a report submitted on Tuesday by a special counsel appointed by the state.

Spearheaded by retired state Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman who was tasked with investigating concerns over election integrity in 2020, the investigation which began last August has resulted in a 150-page report full of recommendations for the state’s legislative body which cited “numerous questionable and unlawful actions of various actors in the 2020 election.”

According to the report, the flow of Zuckerberg grant funds to five Wisconsin counties was the first ‘unlawful action’ noted. According to Gableman, the arrangement violated Wis. Stat. § 12.11, which prohibits election bribery by providing it is illegal to offer anything of value to or for any person in order to induce any elector to go to the polls or vote.

According to the report, Priscilla Chan and Mark Zuckerberg providing financing that allowed the Center for Tech and Civic Life to offer nearly $9 million in “Zuck Bucks” to Milwaukee, Madison, Racine, Kenosha and Green Bay counties. In exchange, the “Zuckerberg 5,” as the report called the counties, in effect, operated Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts. Those grant funds then paid for illegal drop boxes to be placed in Democratic voting strongholds.
The illegal use of drop boxes represented a second area of concern to the special counsel’s office. The report notes state election code limits the manner in which ballots may be cast, providing that an elector must personally mail or deliver his or her ballot to the municipal clerk, except where the law authorizes an agent to act on the behalf of the voter. –The Federalist

The report also claims that the “Zuckerberg 5” violated both federal and state constitutional guarantees of equal protection, as the grant money targeted specific voters for special voting privileges – to the disadvantage of similarly situated Wisconsin voters in other counties. What’s more, said counties allowed private groups working with the granting organization, the Center for Tech and Civic Life, to “unlawfully administer aspects of the election.” In one case, an organization was unlawfully ’embedded’ in local government election administration.

Also disturbing, the Wisconsin Election Commission (WEC) illegally told clerks to ignore the state election code governing voting in nursing homes – where 100% of registered voters allegedly cast ballots in the 2020 election, and unheard-of rate which the Federalist notes included many ineligible voters.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin illegally maintained non-citizens and incapacitated citizens on the state’s voting rolls according to the special counsel’s report.

Special Counsel Gableman detailed many other substantial problems with the 2020 election, but equally troubling to the widespread violations of election law established in the report were the attempts by government officials to impede the investigation. Both the Wisconsin Election Commission and the state attorney general “have refused to cooperate with the Legislature’s investigation and actively obstructed it,” according to the report, with a separate appendix detailing how the Office of Special Counsel and the state Assembly have been blocked from investigating portions of the Wisconsin government. -The Federalist

The special counsel recommends eliminating the Wisconsin Election Commission, among other remedies.

end

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

The King Report March 2, 2022 Issue 6709

Independent View of the News

  Frustrated Putin may order escalation of violence in Ukraine, U.S. officials say
U.S. intelligence agencies have determined that Russian President Vladimir Putin is growing increasingly frustrated by his military struggles in Ukraine, and may see his only option as doubling down on violence, current and former U.S. officials briefed on the matter tell NBC News…
    Putin has lashed out in anger at underlings, even as he remains largely isolated from the Kremlin due in part to concerns about Covid, the sources said…
     “DANGER,” Rubio tweeted. “Putin’s legitimacy built on image as the strong leader who restored Russia to superpower after the disasters of the 90’s. Now the economy is in shambles & the military is being humiliated & his only tools to reestablish power balance with the West is cyber & nukes.”…
     Rubio tweeted Monday that there were “growing signs Putin has ordered a medieval siege of Kyiv,” which he said would involve cutting off food, fuel and power. “We need to start thinking about what we can & are willing to do to prevent such a barbaric crime,” he added…
https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/frustrated-putin-may-order-escalation-violence-ukraine-us-officials-sa-rcna18026

Putin ‘moves family members to Siberian ‘underground city’ designed to survive a nuclear war’, says Russian professor who also claimed Vladimir is suffering from secret illness
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10563727/Putin-moves-family-members-Siberian-underground-city-designed-survive-nuclear-war.html

Ghosts of the 1990s haunt Putin as Russian economy descends into chaos
The president came to power promising to restore order, but now he appears to be losing his grip on markets. Putin’s hold on power is being shaken by a living standards plunge and an economy buckling under the weight of sanctions…
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/01/ghosts-1990s-haunt-putin-russian-economy-descends-chaos/

Russia Vows to Press Attack as Troops Near Kyiv
Russia’s armed forces will continue their “military operation” in Ukraine until they meet their goals, Interfax quoted Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as saying. He said Russia isn’t occupying Ukrainian territory and is attacking Ukrainian military infrastructure with high-precision weapons. Ukraine has reported dozens of civilian deaths and shared video clips that it says are of bombardments from non-guided munitions that have devastated residential areas in cities including Kyiv and Kharkiv…
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-steps-aerial-campaign-against-083015020.html

Zelensky declares Russia ‘a terrorist state’ following rocket attack on Kharkiv and warns Putin: ‘No one will forgive. No one will forget’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10564239/Zelensky-declares-Russia-terrorist-state-following-rocket-attack-Kharkiv.html

Reuters: The West must not build military facilities in any countries of the former Soviet Union, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quoted as saying on Tuesday.

Ukraine Heading for More Brutal Phase of War as Russia RegroupsSigns emerge of return to traditional, artillery-based attacksFailures of initial assault caused by faulty assumptionsRussia’s invasion of Ukraine is entering a new phase, promising a more deadly time ahead for the country’s civilians and its remarkably determined army, according to Western military officials.

Early signs are that Russian commanders are abandoning the approach that marked the first days of the conflict, in which they relied on lightning strikes into cities they assumed would be half-heartedly defended, the officials said… “But we’re seeing them open up greater use of fires (artillery), strikes, and air power. Sadly, I expect the worst is yet ahead, and this war could get a lot more ugly.”..
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-01/ukraine-heading-for-more-brutal-phase-of-war-as-russia-regroups

@M_S_Billingslea: Putin is now going to do to Ukrainian cities what he did to Grozny, just weeks after he took power in 1999. He literally flattened 90% of Grozny. He’s going to try to do the same thing in Kharkiv & Kyiv. The time for half-measures on sanctions is over.

Russia says ‘real danger’ of Ukraine acquiring nuclear weapons required response
“Today the dangers that (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskiy’s regime pose for neighbouring countries and international security in general have increased substantially after the authorities set up in Kyiv have embarked upon dangerous games related to plans to acquire their own nuclear weapons,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the Conference on Disarmament in a video address….
https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-lavrov-says-there-is-danger-ukraine-acquiring-nuclear-weapons-2022-03-01/

Reuters: German Chancellor Scholz said on Tuesday there would almost certainly be more sanctions against Russia as he called on President Vladimir Putin to pull troops out of Ukraine immediately.

@Reuters: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that Vladimir Putin ‘is prepared to use barbaric and indiscriminate tactics against innocent civilians’ in Ukraine, but stressed he was convinced the Russian president ‘will fail’

@NBCNewsWorld: President Zelenskyy receives a standing ovation after European Parliament address that came hours after he submitted an application to the European Union to grant Ukraine immediate membership into the E.U. (The EU accepted the application.) “Nobody is going to break us. We’re strong. We’re Ukrainians. We have a desire to see our children alive. I think it’s a fair one.”

Western envoys, allies walk out on Lavrov speech to UN rights forum https://t.co/sAjPlyqO4q

CNBC’s @carlquintanilla: RUSSIAN MOVE ON KYIV IS STALLED, OFFICIAL SAYS

U.S. HAS INDICATIONS THAT SOME RUSSIAN UNITS HAVE SURRENDERED WITHOUT A FIGHT, U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS
@marceldirsus: Absolutely astonishing poll from Germany: After Russia’s attack on Ukraine and Berlin’s 180-degree turn on foreign policy, 78% of Germans support an immediate boost of defence spending by €100bn. Let me repeat: 78%! I cannot overstate how much of a shift this is.
https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1498629690847899652

China ready to ‘play a role’ in Ukraine ceasefire https://t.co/CIJfvoH3EY
Shift in Beijing’s public position comes after call between Chinese and Ukrainian foreign ministers

Xi cannot be happy with his BFF Putin. Wee Vlad has united the West for the first time in eons and has awakened the masses to tyrants in globalist clothing. Will Xi be unmasked next? The West will be more sensitive and alert to Xi’s duplicity and treachery as well as the dependency on despots for essential goods and commodities. The West, sans the NBA, might be quicker to sanction China in coming months.

Anders Östlund @andersostlund: During the 20 years Russia has attacked the democratic world it never fought back, or even defended itself. Russia was not seen as more than an annoying mosquito. Now that the West has had enough Russia will learn what it feels like when democracies fight back

U.S. Says It Is Realigning Its China Trade Policy – U.S. Trade Representative’s annual report promises to consider all possible tools to combat Beijing’s practices, but offers few details
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-says-it-is-realigning-its-china-trade-policy-11646150650

@Jkylebass: As the world awakens to the pure evil of Putin’s Russia, Xi’s China is in the crosshairs. Global pension and endowment investments in Russian stocks and bonds are at risk being completely wiped out after errantly turning a blind eye to Putin’s despotism
    I fear that global pension, endowment, and other invested capital in Chinese stocks and bonds will suffer a similar fate to trapped/frozen/indefinitely suspended stocks and bonds…
     MSCI and other global indices invested in Russia are almost completely trapped. We are witnessing the bifurcation of the world into two spheres. The rules-based west on one hand and the axis of authoritarian, communistic, totalitarian evil on the other. The China/Russia Strategic Partnership’ announced in a joint press release on Feb 4, 2022 is worth another read. They intend to form a bond bigger and stronger than the Allied Powers of WWII. “No areas of cooperation are off the table.” It will become clear that fiduciaries that invested… @JackPosobiec: People ask why I am skeptical of MSM and US govt war narratives and I would just say, why would you trust these people after everything they’ve pulled over the last 5 years?

Pfizer’s COVID vaccine is just 12% effective in preventing Omicron infection in children aged five to 11, new study reveals – so why ARE health officials pushing parents to get their kids shots?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10561455/The-Pfizer-COVID-19-vaccine-12-effective-against-infection-children-aged-five-11.html

The science changed? CDC about-face on masks follows political winds, ignores its own study
Agency’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report continues to draw flak for allegedly promoting weak research that fits its political agenda…They buried the finding that cloth masks were statistically insignificant, confirming a finding from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of Bangladeshi villages.
https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/science-changed-cdc-about-face-masks-follows-political-winds-ignores

Yesterday morning, in a preview of Joe’s SOTU speech, the White House in a statement claimed Biden would say the US “faces an unprecedented mental health crisis.” This is true; but the irony of Biden stating it is breathtaking.  The Biden staffer that thought The Mail Order President should lament mental health ills should be exiled. The WH said Joe would declare a “unity agenda” (Not a parody!).

Not content with subjecting Biden to derision for invoking mental health in his SOTU, the leftists that run Biden decided to have The Big Guy shill for his dead & buried Build Back Better! Joe will also pitch his ‘green agenda’ – when even Germany is reconsidering the folly of going overly green. Biden will announce in his SOTU that the US is closing its airspace to Russian aircraft.

Biden in address expected to renew calls for tax hikes on wealthy, Build Back Better passage
Biden will tout how passage of his Build Back Better agenda would lower costs for families amid record inflation  https://t.co/7Hjk7WJJgA

The White House said it is looking closely at possible war crimes by Russia in Ukraine. What are you going to do about it? Arrest Putin and his cabal? Place Putin on ‘double secret probation’?

Zelensky urges Biden to give ‘useful’ State of the Union message in interview from his bunker https://t.co/UhdxrmQEqo

Biden in SOTU: “We have a choice. One way to fight inflation is to drive down wages and make Americans poorer. I have a better plan to fight inflation. Lower your costs, not your wages.”
   [Putin] “rejected efforts at diplomacy. He thought the West and NATO wouldn’t respond. And he thought he could divide us here at home. Putin was wrong. We were ready.”

@EdMorrissey: “It’s ridiculous, totally ridiculous,” Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) declared yesterday, that “we’re buying over 600,000 barrels a day of crude from Russia.”  Manchin to Biden: Stop buying Russian oil and ramp up domestic production now

@JavierGoya7: The Russian firm Lukoil operates 2000 gas stations in the US alone. They are in 11 east coast states + D.C. They also supply fuel oil and some nat gas to retail and commercial clients

Reuters: The Group of Seven major economies will convene a task force to focus on freezing and seizing assets of key Russian elites as it aims to put further pressure on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Tuesday.

Today –-Ukraine-Russia peace talks are scheduled for today. Headlines should impact trading; but things can change at any moment.  Powell will testify on Fed Monetary Policy at the House Financial Services Committee at 10 ET. The doomed Fed Chair must thread the needle between curtailing inflation and promoting economic growth. As we keep harping, do not play unless you must!

Monthly MACD for the S&P 500 Index has turned negative for the first time since the Covid Panic.

Expected economic data: Feb ADP Employment Change 375k; Fed Beige Book 14:00 ET; Chicago Fed Pres Evans (dove) 9 ET, St. Louis Fed Pres Bullard 9:30 ET (big hawk), Powell gives his semi-annual Monetary Policy testimony at the House Financial Services Committee (Senate Banking tomorrow)

ESHs are +11.00; USHs are – 24/32 at 20:20 ET. WTI oil hit 107.55; gasoline is +2.43% (7.52 cents)

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4545; 100-day MA: 4572; 150-day MA: 4528; 200-day MA: 4463
DJIA 50-day MA: 35,203; 100-day MA: 35,368; 150-day MA: 35,217; 200-day MA 35,027

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender is positive;  MACD is negative – a close below 4153.02 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4597.14 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD negative – a close above 4466.67 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD negative – a close above 4356.19 triggers a buy signal

Pelosi suggests Americans don’t understand Biden’s accomplishments, gets roasted
The RNC accused Pelosi of calling the American people ‘ignorant’
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-suggests-americans-biden-accomplishments-roasted

@greg_price11: OH… MY… GOD! Q: “What’s going on in Ukraine?” Kamala: “Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine so basically that’s wrong.”  https://t.co/gDJDJQVsWb
    @andrewklavan: The sad thing is she’s talking to Biden.

@TomBevanRCP: As certain as death and taxes: mainstream media ignores news that Hunter Biden’s BFF/business partner is going to jail for fraud….. https://t.co/s0SmEX9pfE

Wisconsin voting probe chief urges Legislature to consider decertifying 2020 election
Former Supreme Court justice Mike Gableman cites evidence that “most vulnerable citizens” in nursing homes were defrauded, Mark Zuckerberg donations were improper, and some rule changes were illegal.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/gableman-releases-wisconsin-voting-audit-focus-ballots-vulnerable-nursing

@charliekirk11: A Special Counsel in Wisconsin just determined that Mark Zuckerberg’s $9,000,000 of funding in 5 counties ahead of the 2020 Election violated the Wisconsin State Election Code’s prohibition on Bribery. All Eyes on Wisconsin. This is a massive bombshell.

@CBSNews: Transgender acceptance in Ukraine is not widespread, and changing legal documents to match gender requires a long process with psychiatric examinations. CBS News spoke with one woman in Kyiv who is now battling a “war within a war” amid Russia’s invasion https://cbsn.ws/3JYmqw2

WaPo’s @TomJackmanWP: Potential juror in Reffitt case says she reads The Washington Post every day, but not the articles. (Deceitful or ignorant?)

Let us conclude tonight with this offering from Greg Hunter interviewing Charles Nenner

Harvey Organ Casualties Worse than WWI & WWII Combined – Charles Nenner

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Casualties Worse than WWI & WWII Combined – Charles Nenner | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

Casualties Worse than WWI & WWII Combined – Charles Nenner

By Greg Hunter On March 1, 2022 In Market AnalysisNo Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner says his analysis shows the world is entering into a huge war cycle that could last for many years. Nenner says, “The war cycle is such that there is great danger for a huge war. . . . What I have been writing about is the big danger that Russia, Iran and China will get together. China is watching how we deal with Ukraine before they start with Taiwan. I think that is the big one. . . . The West is in disarray, and it does not have a line on where to go or what to do. . . . This war cycle is going to be bad, and I’ll tell you why. We do price targets on markets and war cycles, and if you look at the price targets, it tells me that the casualties are going to be much higher than in the First and Second World War. So, it’s not going to be a joke.”

Nenner says his cycles are telling him the casualties in the next war could top 175 million. Nenner also sees that world leaders are not taking this seriously and points out, “What’s going on in this country (America), what are they busy with and what is it compared to a nuclear war? —Nothing. Even Biden’s decisions now are based on public relations. If the United States were independent with oil, like it was before with the pipeline and like Trump pushed, we would not be in this situation that oil could go up another $50 per barrel. It looks like now oil can go to $150 per barrel, and it can even get to $250 per barrel.”

War abroad is not the only thing to look out for. Nenner says, “I think there is going to be a lot of civil unrest. When Rome was burning, and we are talking about 2,000 years ago, the Senators were discussing if angels were male or female. This is while Rome was burning. This world is burning, and we are discussing now what kind of a sign you have to put on a public restroom. It’s the same situation. Nobody takes the lead in the big situations. . . .The cycle for civil unrest has just turned up, and it’s going to get much worse. You can imagine if Biden loses to Trump (in 2024), what is going to happen over here? I have never seen people so much on the edge. . . . Look at what going on with masks. People are ready to kill you because you disagree on what you think about masks.”

Nenner thinks the stock market can go down in the next leg to “15,000 on the DOW.” After that, there would be more downside pain in stocks to follow over the next few years. Nenner is still forecasting the Dow to bottom out around 5,000. Nenner thinks the U.S. dollar cycle is headed down, while interest rates are headed up. Meanwhile, Nenner predicts the bond market will tank, but it’s getting a little bounce at the moment.

Nenner sees inflation sticking around for some time to come and gold going up in a long-term cycle starting in earnest mid-April.

(There is much more in the 30-minute interview.)

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner. (3.1.22)

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

After the Interview:

There is free information and analysis on CharlesNenner.com.

You can also sign up to be a subscriber for Nenner’s cutting edge cycle work with a free trial period by clicking here. If you mention USAWatchdog.com, Nenner says you can get a month free trial. (USAW does not share in Nenner’s revenue in any way. We do this as a courtesy.)

This segment is sponsored by Discount Gold and Silver Trading. Ask for Melody Cedarstrom, the owner, at 1-800-375-4188.

https://usawatchdog.com/casualties-worse-than-ww1-wwii-combined-charles-nenner/

end

Well that is all for today. I will see you THURSDAY night

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