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comex notices/

March: JPMorgan stopped/total issued 137/2662

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 03/07/2022 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 03/07/2022
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 21:04:49
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,993.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/07/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 03/09/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

118 C MACQUARIE FUT 118
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 239
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 217
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1784
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 26
661 C JP MORGAN 677 137
661 H JP MORGAN 1953
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 24
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 31
800 C MAREX SPEC 6 36
905 C ADM 74

TOTAL: 2,662 2,662
MONTH TO DATE: 6,763

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR Mar. CONTRACT:2662 NOTICE(S) FOR 266,200 OZ (8.2799 TONNES)

total notices so far: 6763 contracts for 676,300 oz (21.035 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

125 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 625,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 8206 : for 41,030.000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $46.10

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GLD INVENTORY/A DEPOSIT OF 8.42 TONNES OF PHONY GOLD INTO THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.70 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.88

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//

FROM THE SLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 548.071 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG 4645 CONTRACTS TO 167,020 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND WITH THIS HUGE GAIN IN OI, IT WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH OUR STRONG $0.40 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.40) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A MONSTER GAIN OF 8503 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 42.860 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1,030,000 OZ //NEW STANDING 43.130 MILLION OZ // V) GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS : —3056 (ABSOLUTELY CRIMINAL)

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 6 days, total contracts: : 16,062 contracts or 80.310 million oz OR 13.383 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (2677 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 16,062 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 80.310 MILLION OZ

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 80.310 MILLION OZ//

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1589 WITH OUR STRONG $0.40 GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3858 CONTRACTS( 3858 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR. OF 42.860 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1,030,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP /// .. WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 5447 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 27.235MILLION OZ

WE HAD 125 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 625,000 OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 12,014 CONTRACTS TO 645,711 AND CLOSER TO OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: –7408 CONTRACTS. (ABSOLUTELY CRIMINAL)

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $28.40//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED A HUMONGOUS 16,914 CONTRACTS…

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MARCH AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 231,900 OZ//NEW STANDING 24.653 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $28.40 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 16,914 OI CONTRACTS (52.609 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4900 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 645,711.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,914, WITH 12,014 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4900 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 24,322 CONTRACTS OR 75.65TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4900) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (12,014,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 16,914 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MARCH. AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S RECORD BREAKING QUEUE JUMP OF 231,900 OZ//NEW STANDING 24.653 TONNES /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION/. ,4) GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MARCH

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :

34,123 CONTRACTS OR 3,412,300 OR 106.13 TONNES 6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5687 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 106.13TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 106.53/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 145.12 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 106.53 TONNES INITIAL( THIS WILL PROBABLY BE A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1589 CONTRACTS TO 167,020 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 4 1/2 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 3835 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 3835 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3835 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 4645 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 3835 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 5447 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 27.235 MILLION OZ,

OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.40 GAIN IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 79.72 PTS OR 2.35% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 291.76 PTS OR 1.39% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 430.46 PTS or 1.71% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.93% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3167 /Oil UP TO 121.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 126.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3167. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3200: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER//

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 74.79 PTS OR 2.17% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 847.66 PTS OR 4.43% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 764.06 PTS or 2.99% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.00% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3192 /Oil UP TO 121.34 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 12366 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3192. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3230: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 12,014 CONTRACTS AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN OF $28.40 IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A GOODSIZED EFP (4900 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4900 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , & FEB. 0 APRIL:4900 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4900 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED TOTAL OF 16,914 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4900 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 19,422 CONTRACTS..

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (24.653),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 24.653 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $28.40) AND THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE REGISTERED A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 52.609 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (24.653 TONNES)…

WE HAD –7408 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16,914 CONTRACTS OR 1,691,400 OZ OR 52.609 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 488,980 ///STRONG

Confirmed volume yesterday: 460,043 contracts strong

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAR ’22 COMEX GOLD //MARCH 8

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil
No of oz served (contracts) today	2662 notice(s) 266,200 OZ 8.2799 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	1173 contracts 117,300 oz 3.648 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	6763 notices 676,300 OZ 21.035 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

For today:

0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit nil oz

No dealer withdrawal 0

0 customer deposit

total deposit: nil oz

0 customer withdrawal

total withdrawals: nil oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 2//dealer to customer//

i) out of Manfra: 5497.821oz (171 kilobars)

ii) out of JPM 2121.966 oz (66 kilobars)

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH.

For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 3839 contracts having gained 1899

We had 420 notices filed yesterday so strangely on day 7 we gained a whopper of a queue jump i.e. 2319 contracts or an additional 231,900 oz will stand for delivery and these guys refused again to be EFP’d over to London. They must

be after large amounts of gold on this side of the pond after Russia cannot//will not supply any precious metals to London. The 231,900 oz is represented by 7.213 tonnes, the highest ever queue jump in comex history.

April saw a loss of 22,450 contracts up to 439,583.

May saw a gain of 912 contracts to stand at 2429

June saw a GAIN of 29,715 contracts up to 138,678 contracts

We had 420 notice(s) filed today for 42,000 oz FOR THE MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 677 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2662 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 137 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR /2021. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6763) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR: 3839 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 2662 x 100 oz per contract equals 792,600 OZ OR 24.653 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of mar.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:

No of notices filed so far (6763) x 100 oz+ (3839) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2662} x 100 oz} which equals 792600 oz standing OR 24.653 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAR.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 24.653 TONNES (A WHOPPER FOR A MAR (NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

191,133,764.7, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

123,963.792 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.86 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

262,049.904, oz JPM No 2 8.15 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware: 0..3810 tonnes

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold: 1,561,172.671 oz 48.55 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIG GOLD AT THE COMEX: 32,650,249.048 OZ (1015.55 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,290,942.008 OZ (475.61 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,359,307.040 OZ (539.94 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,798,135.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 491.38 tonnes

END

MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//MARCH 8

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	729,981.540 oz JPM CNT
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	680,180.866 oz Brinks Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)	125CONTRACT(S) 625,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	626 contracts (3,130,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	8206 contracts 41,030,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Brinks: 574,965.100 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 105,215.766 oz

total deposit: 680,180.866 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 182.328 million oz/345.390 million =52.77% of comex

ii) Comex withdrawals: 2

a)Out of CNT 600,540.000 oz

b) Out JPMorgan: 129,441.540 oz

total withdrawal 729,981.540 oz

we had 1 adjustments// customer to dealer

a) JPMorgan 246,954.100 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 85.000 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 345.971 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MARCH

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MARCH OI: 751, HAVING LOST 357 CONTRACTS FROM MONDAY.

WE HAD 563 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED A HUGE 206 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1,030,000 OZ WILL STAND

FOR DELIVERY OVER HERE AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO BE EFP’D TO LONDON.

APRIL HAD A 17 CONTRACT GAIN// CONTRACTS RISING TO 570

MAY HAD A LOSS OF 180 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 132,408 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 125 for 625,000 oz

Comex volumes: 127,753// est. volume today//huge/criminal/

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 93,359 contracts (strong )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8206 x 5,000 oz =. 41,030,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (751) and the number of notices served upon today 125 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2021 contract month: 8206 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (751) – number of notices served upon today (125) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month equates 44,160,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $46.10: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 8.42 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.70 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.28 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80//A MONSTER CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.38 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $42.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD UP $17.35//A HUGE CHANGE AT THE GLD: 5.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD// IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $6.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD UP $29.50: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP 414.60 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.70 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $27.20 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.60 TONNES//

FEB 4/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.59 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.95//A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.78 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.04 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1062.70 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 88 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS A 548.071 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.32 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 198,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.510 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ/

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 350,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.017 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.227 MILLION OZ

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.402 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.210 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLIONOZ

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THES LV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV/FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.143 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.218 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.430 MILLION OZ/

FEB 4/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILION OZ

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT539.212 MILLION OZ//

FEB 2/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.411 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 548.071 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James RICKARDS/

PAM AND RUSS MARTENS:

We have 2008 all over again as no bank wants to lend to another bank because of derivative exposure

This is a must read….

(courtesy Pam and Russ Martens//Wall Street on Parade)

Pam and Russ Martens: Which banks owe billions on Russian credit default swaps?

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-03-07 10:22Section: Daily Dispatches

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Monday, March 7, 2022

There are a known $41 billion in credit default swaps on Russian debt. There are likely many billions more in unknown amounts.

There are also billions more in credit default swaps on state-owned Russian corporate debt and non state-owned Russian corporate debt.

In addition to Wall Street not knowing which global banks and other financial institutions are on the hook to pay out on the credit default swap protection they sold in case of a Russian sovereign debt default (or Russian corporate debt default), there are also approximately $100 billion of Russian sovereign debt (whose default is looking more likely) sitting on the balance sheets of foreign banks.

Put it all together and you have the makings of a replay of the 2008 banking crisis, when banks backed away from lending to each other because they didn’t know who would fall next from toxic subprime exposure. That led to a liquidity crisis and the unprecedented involvement of the Federal Reserve secretly pumping trillions of dollars into the megabanks on Wall Street and their foreign derivative counterparties.

The cost of buying a five-year credit default swap on Russian debt has spiked from 5% of the total value of the debt in early February to 46% last Friday to 58% this morning. The market has now priced in an 80% likelihood of default. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

The Big Question on Wall Street Is Which Banks Owe $41 Billion on Credit Default Swaps on Russia

The Big Question on Wall Street Is Which Banks Owe $41 Billion on Credit Default Swaps on Russia

Trading in Global Bank Stocks, Feb 1, 2022 through March 4, 2022

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: March 7, 2022 ~

There is a known $41 billion in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on Russian debt. There is likely many billions more in unknown amounts. There are also billions more in Credit Default Swaps on state-owned Russian corporate debt and non state-owned Russian corporate debt.

In addition to Wall Street not knowing which global banks and other financial institutions are on the hook to pay out on the Credit Default Swap protection they sold in case of a Russian sovereign debt default (or Russian corporate debt default), there is also approximately $100 billion of Russian sovereign debt (whose default is looking more and more likely) sitting on the balance sheets of foreign banks.

Put it all together and you have the makings of a replay of the 2008 banking crisis when banks backed away from lending to each other because they didn’t know who would fall next from toxic subprime exposure. That led to a liquidity crisis and the unprecedented involvement of the Federal Reserve secretly pumping trillions of dollars into the megabanks on Wall Street and their foreign derivative counterparties.

The cost of buying a five-year Credit Default Swap on Russian debt has spiked from 5 percent of the total value of the debt in early February to 46 percent last Friday to 58 percent this morning. The market has now priced in an 80 percent likelihood of default.

Russia’s debt was downgraded to junk status on February 25 by Standard and Poor’s. On March 3, Moody’s and Fitch downgraded the debt by six notches, also placing it in junk territory.

As the chart above indicates, the share prices of global banks with ties to Russia have been plunging since Russia began massive deployment of troops on the border of Ukraine and particularly since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

Reuters reported on February 28 that Citigroup has $10 billion in exposure to Russian loans and various other types of Russian exposure. Given Citigroup’s history of understating its subprime exposure during the financial crisis of 2008, that $10 billion may not be the whole story. On February 1, Citigroup closed the trading day at $66.56. It closed last Friday at $56.59 – a decline of 15 percent.

Citigroup’s commercial bank, Citibank, also has a significant commercial banking presence in Russia. Its website reports that it is “a key banking partner for about 3000 corporate clients including more than 600 global subsidiaries (virtually all of 500 Fortune companies), leading Russian companies and mid-sized clientele.” Its website notes further that it has branches servicing approximately 500,000 individual customers in 10 major cities in Russia, including: Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Sochi, Rostov-on-Don, Volgograd, Ufa and Kazan. Its operations center is located in Ryazan. The bank’s Russian website lists the following services to Russian clients: “…cash management, trade finance, investment banking, corporate finance, lending, FX [foreign exchange] and hedging services, securities services, issuer services and retail banking solutions, including wealth management, credit cards and personal loans.”

Interestingly, while a growing stream of famous brands like Hermes, Cartier, Nike, Apple, Ikea, Ford, Toyota, Disney, British Petroleum, Shell, ExxonMobil, FedEx, UPS, American Express, Mastercard and Visa (and numerous others) have announced they are closing stores, suspending services, or halting shipments to Russia – Citibank has made no announcement of closing its branches in Russia.

One of the largest foreign banks in Russia is Austria’s Raiffeisenbank (shown under the symbol RAIFY on the above chart). It closed at $7.35 on February 2, 2022 versus $3.20 last Friday – a decline of 56 percent in a little over a month’s time. Raiffeisenbank notes on its Russian website that it is “one of 13 systemically important banks in Russia,” that it ranks number 10 by assets and number 8 by the number of retail customers. Its regional network in Russia includes five branches and 116 outlets.

Another global foreign bank with large operations in Russia is the French global bank Societe Generale’s Rosbank (shown on the chart above under the symbol FR:GLE). According to its website, it has 5 million individual clients in Russia and 9,000 large corporate clients. Societe Generale’s share price closed at $33.33 on February 1 of this year. Last Friday, it closed at $20.80 – a decline of 38 percent.

Italy’s UniCredit also has large operations in Russia. Reuters reports that UniCredit’s Russian bank is the 12th largest bank in the country with 7.8 billion Euros in customer loans at the end of last year. Its shares are shown under the symbol IT:UCG on the above chart. Its shares closed at $14.25 on February 2 versus $9.00 last Friday – a decline of 37 percent.

Other global banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Deutsche Bank (DB), Barclays (BCS) and Credit Suisse (CS), which have significant derivative exposures in general, have also experienced significant share price declines since Russia invaded Ukraine

-END-

LAWRIE WILLIAMS:

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold quickly recovers $2,000 level as war entrenchment intensifies

In an article we published yesterday in noting that the gold price had surpassed the $2,000 level, but had subsequently been marked down sharply again in U.S. trade we posed the question of how long this reversal would last with the Russian invasion of Ukraine continuing. The implication was that gold would recover this key level again quickly, and that certainly has proved to be the case. The price actually fell back to the $1,860s at one time, but at the end of the day’s trading was approaching $2,000 again. Then overnight in Asia, and this morning in Europe it surged back comfortably above the $2,000 level, and has already been moving up in the U.S. markets immediately following their open. Nevertheless, there are certainly some major players in the ongoing gold market who will have an interest in keeping the price suppressed. We do suspect, though, that gold is making a new base at, or around, the $2,000 level or higher. My most recent year-end price forecasts are already looking vulnerable to the upside, although if the Ukraine conflict comes to an end, all could crash down again quite rapidly.

As we explained yesterday, the rise in the gold price has been supported by the high levels of inflation. These have been hugely exacerbated by the economic fallout from the Russia/Ukraine conflict. There are fears that the Western sanctions being imposed on Russia will spill over on to oil and gas supplies on which much of Europe, although perhaps not the UK and Scandinavia, is hugely dependent, although so far there has been no European embargo on Russian oil and gas. But the fear that these key supplies might be affected is having a huge impact on global oil and gas prices.

In addition, both Russia and Ukraine are major food and grain exporters, and prices of these are already being impacted, driving them up accordingly at a time when those on low incomes in particular can least afford it. One suspects that all this is already having a huge effect on everyday price inflation, driving real interest rates into hugely negative territory. And again, as we have noted previously, non interest-generating, but price-stable, assets like gold tend to benefit strongly from such economic pressures. Consequently we have been seeing traditional safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and gold advance strongly. They will likely continue to climb unless, and until, relative peace returns to Ukraine which does not, as things stand currently, look like happening any time soon.

Russia’s President Putin seems to have totally misjudged the likely level of Ukrainian resistance to the Russian attacks, and the human life and economic costs that have resulted, not to mention the loss of any aura of military invincibility of the Russian armed forces. However he also seems unlikely to back down and may continue with the Russian advance until his main objectives have been achieved, no matter that this may degenerate into a guerrilla-type conflict that could continue almost indefinitely. The only way out, apart from a change of Russian leadership which may be unlikely, could prove to be finding some kind of compromise solution that would enable Putin to withdraw his troops and save face at the same time.

The most likely such solution, it seems to us, would be recognition by Ukraine and the West that the Crimea is now indeed part of Russia and, perhaps, the absorption also of the Donbas region, or at least a part of it, into Russia too. Ukraine might be forced to drop any ambitions to join NATO and the EU as well. Whether this would all ever be acceptable to the Ukrainian government and people would, of course, be open to question, in which case the war may continue with all its adverse effects on the global economy and stability, particularly as Western economic sanctions would probably continue to be imposed in such a scenario, or even be further enhanced.

As for gold and general equities, we remain positive on the former as long as the Ukraine conflict persists, and negative on the latter. Gold stocks, though, should perform well given high profitability levels at current metal prices. General equities will probably see occasional recoveries as over-optimistic investors think any falls are overdone. But although some counters may benefit from high inflation levels, the majority look to be in a major decline phase. Caveat emptor.

08 Mar 2022

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

LME rescues shorts by delaying delivery amid nickel squeeze

(courtesy GATA/Bloomberg)

London Metal Exchange rescues shorts in all contracts amid nickel squeeze

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-03-08 09:03Section: Daily Dispatches

Nickel Tops $100,000 as Big Short Tests 145-Year-Old Exchange

By Martin Ritchie, James Thornhill, and Winnie Zhu
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Nickel spiked briefly above $100,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange amid a short squeeze that’s embroiled a major Chinese bank and encouraged rule changes from one of the world’s top commodity exchanges.

The material used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries surged as much as 111% to $101,365 a ton after closing up 66% the day before. It pared gains to be up 74% at $83,500 a ton as of 3:10 p.m. in Shanghai.

The market on the LME is in the grip of a massive squeeze in which holders of substantial short positions are being forced to cover at a time of low liquidity. To give a sense of nickel’s dizzying surge, it has risen around $11,000 a ton over the last five years. This week alone, it’s jumped by as much as $72,000.

“It’s going crazy — it’s not reflecting any industry fundamentals,” said Jiang Hang, head of trading at Yonggang Resources Co. The “LME trading system is out of control and requires intervention,” or the contagion may spill over to other metals, he said.

Late Monday, the LME decided to allow traders to defer delivery obligations on all its main contracts — including nickel — in an unusual shift for a 145-year-old institution that touts itself as the “market of last resort” for metals. The LME also gave a unit of China Construction Bank Corp. extra time to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in margin calls that were due Monday, according to people familiar with the matter. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/nickel-resumes-advance-after-manic-monday-that-smashed-records

end

END

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

A must read.

Special thanks to Kevin for providing this to us:

Paper and rocks

Inbox

Is anyone looking at the end of the uncovered paper shorts on all futures and OTC market from what is occurring with Russian producers of any resource who are soon to be cut off Swift on the 12th? Their covered hedges are losing serious money in foreign currency with massive margin calls. But they can’t sell or get paid for their product in fiat at all to take advantage of the price increase. Why pay the fiat margin call before the 12th takes effect when they can’t reap the benefits of selling their product for fiat? Even using a friendly third party like China as a conduit or customer, western exchanges will not be paid for margin calls on hedges by Russians. That means the longs don’t get paid if they liquidate or stop for delivery either. Provided business does occur for energy as EU states, why would a Russian state energy producer want or accept fiat for payment unless the the money is counter-party free like a rock of gold or silver.

If Russian are indeed cut off Swift, this water shed event will lead quickly to major changes in all futures markets. Speculative margin players may be required to convert and pony up 100% of the contract value in cash or the physical product just like the SGE Au9999. Ditto on the Shanghai Energy Exchange. On SGE for instance, buyers (fabricators, banks etc) need to prepare the full value of the contract and sellers (refineries etc.) should have the physical gold products to trade, and ownership of the gold must be transferred from seller to buyer once a trade is complete.

On the Shanghai Gold Exchange there is both Au(T+D) that tends to be speculative, investment-related, while Au9999 reflects physical demand.
The minimum margin requirement for Au(T+D) is only 7% of the contract’s value, whereas to trade Au9999, requires 100% of the contract value in cash or the physical product (1kg, 99.99% purity gold bars)

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/ NICKEL

Yesterday afternoon:

Nickel spikes up 82% due to fears of Russian supply. This is an historic short squeeze coming up!

(zerohedge)

Nickel Spikes 82% As Russia Supply Fears Spark Historic Short Squeeze

MONDAY, MAR 07, 2022 – 01:50 PM

Nickel prices soared as much as 82% to $52,700 a metric ton, the highest in the 35-year history of the contract trading on the London Metal Exchange, as fears over Russian supplies triggered a historic short squeeze according to Bloomberg.

The metal added more than $22,700 to trade at a record-high $52,700 a metric ton. That builds on nickel’s 19% surge last week as banks cut exposure to Russian commodity suppliers because of Western sanctions and shippers, such as Maersk, stay clear of Russian and Ukrainian ports.

“Commodity markets are increasingly pricing in a scenario under which a significant portion of Russian supply will be excluded from the market,” Morgan Stanley wrote in a note.

“Prices are likely to remain highly volatile, until the real supply impact becomes clearer and prices can start to settle at a new equilibrium,” analysts at the bank said.

Citigroup analysts said, “the nickel market is the tightest it has been since the commodity supercycle during the 2000s.”

“Already tight markets could see even larger shortages if Russia’s mined commodity exports were to be significantly affected,” Morgan Stanley said. “Against a backdrop of generally low inventories, demand destruction would become necessary under such a scenario.”

Bloomberg data shows 70% of the global supply of nickel is used to produce stainless steel. About 7% of the metal’s supply is used in batteries for electric vehicles.

The surge in nickel prices, alongside every other major commodity, is pressuring businesses and households. Commodity prices last week had the largest weekly gain since the stagflationary period of the mid-1970s.

“The well-flagged headwind from raw material prices is accelerating as a result of the war and could potentially weigh on margins more than initially highlighted by the companies,” Deutsche Bank analysts led by Christoph Laskawi wrote last week. This could affect top carmakers, such as Tesla Inc., who uses the metal to produce its batteries.

Remember last month when Goldman’s head commodity strategist Jeff Currie warned he’s never such “shortages of everything.” Well, now the rest of the world’s is seeing it too.

END

This morning: Nickel is halted after a huge 250% rise. It is costing Chinese tycoons billions in margin losses

(zerohedge)

Nickel Halted After Historic 250% Surge Costing Chinese Tycoon Billions In Margin Losses

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 07:26 AM

Commodity trading houses and hedging producers are being forced out of their short nickel bets adding to an unprecedented short squeeze that had sent prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) up as much as 250% in two trading days above $100k per ton, before the exchange issued an unprecedented trading suspension on Tuesday morning.

The parabolic price move began shortly after the Biden administration considered banning Russian crude imports helped spark a massive squeeze in commodity markets on Monday, especially in oil, gas, nickel, aluminum, palladium, and wheat. All hit multi-year highs or new record highs, according to Bloomberg.

As reported earlier, the monster squeeze has forced anyone holding a short nickel position on the LME to post additional collateral to pay margin calls or close out positions. As a reminder, traders, miners, and processors generally use short positions in derivatives to hedge against volatility on long-term contracts or physical inventories. Some use it purely for leverage purposes on directional bets.

And as we first noted last night, one of the latest confirmed causalities is Chinese entrepreneur Xiang Guangda – known as “Big Shot” – who amassed a massive short position in nickel futures now faces billions of dollars in mark-to-market losses after the metal’s parabolic, Bloomberg also reported separately.

Guangda, who controls the world’s largest nickel producer, Tsingshan Holding Group, has closed out some of his company’s short position and might be forced to close out the entire position. It wasn’t clear what Guangda’s losses were but could reportedly be more than $2 billion.

Meanwhile, the short covering chaos on the LME prompted the exchange to suspend nickel trading on Tuesday. Margins calls were calculated for the present time based on Monday’s closing price of $48k. Some traders say this reminds them of the 1985 “Tin Crisis,” which saw the exchange suspend tin trading for four years as many brokers were forced out of business.

“This is second only to the tin crisis,” said Malcolm Freeman, a broker at Kingdom Futures who began trading on the LME in 1974.

“This was the right thing to do, and my gut feeling is that they’ll probably look at canceling today’s trades too,” Freeman said.

Adding to the confusion, the London Metal Exchange said it would cancel all trades executed on or after midnight UK time Tuesday in physically settled nickel contracts in the inter-office market and on LMEselect, it says in an emailed notice.

The Exchange will also defer delivery of all physically settled nickel contracts due for delivery from March 9 due to trading suspension

LME says latest notice is intended to address most pressing issues following “unprecedented” events, and further communications will be issued during the course of today, including regarding the process for reopening the market. “The LME is committed to working with market participants to ensure the continued orderly functioning of the market”

And so, the first causality of the great nickel squeeze emerges, and others are likely to be announced in the days or weeks ahead.

end

Boeing suspends buying Titanium. Russia is one of the world’s largest titanium producers

(zerohedge)

Boeing Suspends Buying Russian Titanium

MONDAY, MAR 07, 2022 – 05:20 PM

Boeing Co.’s big bet on Russian titanium for manufacturing its commercial planes and military jets has come to a standstill since Russia invaded Ukraine, according to WSJ.

The planemaker follows many other Western companies who are suspending operations in Russia. The turmoil could create future supply problems in the future for aircraft manufacturing.

Since the invasion, Boeing has shuttered engineering offices in Moscow and Kyiv. The company declined to say what would happen with its joint venture with the country’s top titanium supplier, controlled by President Vladimir Putin’s former intelligence colleague, Sergey Chemezov.

About a third of Boeing’s titanium is sourced from Russia, with the rest coming from the U.S., Japan, China, and Kazakhstan.

“Our inventory and diversity of titanium sources provide sufficient supply for airplane production, and we will continue to take the right steps to ensure long-term continuity,” said a Boeing spokeswoman.

Boeing has spent decades developing partnerships in Russia since the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991. The company is heavily invested in Russia and Ukraine.

Industry officials told WSJ that Boeing and other aerospace companies have panic hoarded titanium and been in talks with other suppliers for fear Russia would retaliate for Western sanctions.

Boeing and other aerospace companies can still import Russian titanium under U.S. sanctions. But further turmoil in Ukraine and additional sanctions on Russia could risk Western businesses losing access to the precious metal that is strong, lightweight, and avoids corrosion.

Brian O’Toole, a former Treasury official who crafted U.S. sanctions after Russia’s 2014 Crimea invasion, warned any company “with a Russian supply chain has got a lot of problems on their hands—at least for the medium term.”

And maybe that’s why Boeing CEO David Calhoun told investors in a January call that Boeing’s titanium supply could be at risk.

“As long as the geopolitical situation stays tame, no problem,” Calhoun said. “If it doesn’t, we’re protected for quite a while, but not forever.”

And if Boeing were to experience sourcing issues of titanium, it could very well derail its plans to double 737 Max production by the end of 2023.

end

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING TODAY

Gold Soars To $2,063, Just One Cent Away From New All Time High

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 10:21 AM

With digital gold acting more like digital lead in recent weeks, as bitcoin and the broader crypto sector trade as high-beta tech stocks perhaps helping tech funds satisfy margin calls, the real gold has no such qualms and after flatlining for much of the past 18 months, has broken out solidly to the upside, and just today spike more than 3%, rising to session high of $2,063.53

Why $2,063.53? Because $2,063.54 was the closing high on August 6, 2020 when gold hit an all time high in the aftermath of the Fed’s money debasement frenzy when the Fed’s balance sheet exploded by hundreds of billions weekly.

But while technical selling may have emerged at this key resistance level, we expect it to be taken out shortly, with even Goldman raising its gold forecast overnight, writing that in light of the Russia-Ukraine war, the bank is raising its gold price target over different time horizons. Targets raised for:

3-month horizon to USD2,300 vs. $1950 previous.
6-month horizon to USD2,500, from $2050 previous.
12-month horizon to USD2,500 vs. $2150 previous.”

Why? Because “An increase in demand from consumers, investors, central banks due to the rising geopolitical uncertainty.”

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.3167

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3200

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 291.76 PTS OR 1.39%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 430.46 PTS 1.71%

3. Europe stocks ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.02/Euro RISES TO 1.0898-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.155/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 115.71/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 121.97 and Brent: 126.84–

3f Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE CLOSED UP// OFF- SHORE UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.0.089%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 1.58% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 1/-4%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.49: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 2.33

3k Gold at $2011.50 silver at: 26.15 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 450/100 in roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 138.50

3m oil into the 121 dollar handle for WTI and 126 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 115.71 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9272– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0107 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.853 UP 8 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.241 UP 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.52

Futures Rebound On “Massive” EU Bond Stimulus Plan; Nickel Halted After Record Surge, Gold Over $2000

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 08:09 AM

Futures rebounded from yesterday huge loss, and after touching a session low of 4,138, S&P futures bounced shortly after the European OPENING when Bloomberg reported that the European Union was set to reveal a quasi “Marshall Plan” this week to issue “potentially massive” joint bonds to fund energy and defense and help counter the fiscal fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (how Europe will do that at a time when QE is ending and buyers for global debt are shrinking fast amid surging rates remains unclear). S&P 500 futures gained 0.7% following the benchmark index’s biggest loss since October 2020, while Dow futures rose 0.6%. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were up 0.6% at 7:15 a.m. Bonds and the dollar dropped, and the euro strengthened. The commodity melt up continued: nickel was halted on the LME after soaring 250%, oil traded just shy of $130 and gold was above $2000.

The EU’s bond-sale proposal may be presented as soon as next week, according to Bloomberg. The extraordinary move comes just a year after the EU launched a 1.8 trillion-euro ($2 trillion) emergency package backed by joint debt to finance member states’ efforts to deal with the pandemic. Now, the bloc faces massive financing needs as it begins to reform its military and energy infrastructure following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A new round of stimulus would come as welcome relief for a market whipsawed in recent weeks as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent crude-oil and gas prices soaring, raising concerns about inflation and economic growth. Still, details remain sketchy and the plan has not yet been nailed down, keeping investors on edge amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and soaring commodity prices.

“Today’s reaction is perhaps short-term; we need something more solid,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, on Bloomberg television. “The reality is that Europe’s energy security has a massive question mark and there’s a fog, therefore, over the economic outlook for the euro zone.”

U.S. stocks have been roiled this year as the war in Ukraine and resulting sanctions on Russia sent oil soaring at a time when investors were already worried about slowing economic growth. The Federal Reserve’s meeting next week is now in focus, with Chair Jerome Powell indicating interest rates could be hiked by 25 basis points to rein in inflation.

“A wait-and-see stance now prevails as investors cautiously monitor the situation,” said Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades. “All eyes are likely to be on the Fed over the coming days as investors watch how central banks move forward with monetary tightening in such an uncertain environment.”

“We believe it is currently hard for investors to attach high confidence in any individual market outcome materializing and we hold a neutral stance on equities,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note. “We like commodities, energy equities and the U.S. dollar as portfolio hedges in the short term.”

Tightening monetary policy to contain inflation presents further challenges. The gap between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields is around the narrowest since March 2020, a sign of expectations of slowing economic expansion. Meanwhile, the average price of gasoline in the U.S. rose to a record.

“It’s all about slowing growth and rising inflation,” Alifia Doriwala, Rock Creek co-chief investment officer, said on Bloomberg Television. “With the sanctions on Russia intensifying, it’s hitting all sectors. Then you are going to have some central bank action amidst uncertain economic growth.”

Mandiant declined in premarket trading, with Piper Sandler saying it is fairly valued after closing 16% higher on Monday following a report in The Information that Google is in talks to acquire the cybersecurity company, which had previously been reported to garner interest from Microsoft. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Meta Platforms (FB US) edged lower in premarket trading; it faces multiple short-term risks and may not return to double-digit growth before 2H22, Arete Research analyst Rocco Strauss writes in a note, slashing price target to a joint Street-low. Piper Sandler also lowers its target on Facebook’s parent.
Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ARNA US) shares rose more than 3.5% in premarket trading just days before the expiry on March 9 of the current waiting period for its proposed acquisition by Pfizer Inc. under HSR.
ThredUp (TDUP US) shares dropped 11% in extended trading after the online consignment company gave a first- quarter revenue outlook that trailed the average of analysts’ estimates. The company also reported a wider-than-expected fourth-quarter loss.
Rover Group (ROVR US) fell 13% postmarket after the pet-sitting platform provided sales forecasts that disappointed. The company anticipates “pandemic dynamics will persist well into 2022.”
Shares of 908 Devices (MASS US) jumped 7% in postmarket trading after fourth-quarter revenue topped analyst projections. The quarterly loss per share was narrower than expected.
Clarus (CLAR US) shares gained 11% in postmarket trading, after the company’s fourth-quarter revenue and 2022 sales view both beat analysts’ estimates.

In the latest geopolitical developments, Ukraine and Russia said they would make their fourth attempt Tuesday to establish a humanitarian corridor for civilians fleeing areas of heavy fighting. Still, with the VIX trading in the mid-30s, a level traditionally seen as presaging market bottoms (or crashes if the VIX extends gains) investors were bracing for more turbulence. Some more overnight developments courtesy of Newsquawk:

Russian forces have held fire within Ukraine, as of 07:00GMT, via Reuters citing Ifx/Defence Ministry; subsequently, Ukrainian Presidential Official says the evacuation of civilians from Sumy and Irpin is underway.
Note, Ukrainian forces are stopping civilians from leaving Mariupol and Volnovakha through humanitarian corridors, via AJA Breaking citing Donetsk Separatists
Russian President Putin said they will only use professional soldiers in its Ukraine operation and will not use conscript soldiers in Ukraine.
EU Commission VP Dombrovskis says that Russia President Putin is likely to increase his military ambitions and challenge NATO in Baltic Sea nations, unless Putin is stopped in Ukraine, via Politico;
additionally, Dombrovskis was sceptical about diplomatic overtures towards Putin and maintained that nothing should be off the table re. sanctions.
EU is reportedly considering a massive joint bond sale to finance defence and energy, according to Bloomberg citing sources; plan could be announced as early as this week. An announcement which sparked risk-on action, details here
EU Commission has prepared a new set of sanctions against Russia and Belarus following the invasion of Ukraine, according to Reuters sources; to be discussed today, blacklisting further oligarchs, providing guidance over monitoring crypto-assets, ban export of maritime tech to Russia.
EU will unveil a plan on Tuesday to reduce gas imports from Russia by two-thirds within a year, according to FT.

European equities snapped higher after a soggy start, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index rallying more than 1% before trimming the advance to 0.3% after three days of sharp declines, as the possibility of further central-bank stimulus lifted sentiment. Some of the most-battered sectors, including banks, utilities and carmakers, outperformed, while media and personal care stocks underperformed The Euro Stoxx 50, which yesterday entered a bear market, reversed an initial 1.2% drop to rally as much as 2.8%. FTSE MIB and IBEX outperform, rallying over 2%. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

M&G shares bounce as much as 15%, the most since November 2020, after the U.K. asset manager and insurer reported a broad-based FY beat, Citi (neutral) writes in a note.
IWG shares jump as much as 15%, also the most since November 2020, after Davy said the office space provider’s full-year results were “slightly better” than the broker’s own estimates.
Telecom Italia shares rise as much as 12% after an Italian newspaper report that its independent directors may be open to giving KKR access to its data room.
European renewables stocks jump after a Bloomberg report that the EU is considering issuing joint bonds on a massive scale to finance energy and defense spending in the wake of the
EDF shares, which have lost almost a quarter of their value this year, is one of the biggest gainers on the news, jumping as much as 10% after the report was published.
Lindt shares climb as much as 2.3% after the chocolate maker raised mid-term targets in its FY report, with ZKB analyst noting OSG guidance was raised for both 2022 and the medium term.
Banks lead a broader rebound in European stocks after the sector subindex closed at a one-year low on Monday, with Societe Generale +7.4% and ABN AMRO +6.9% leading gains in the sector.
Greggs shares drop as much as 11% after the U.K. bakery chain said worse-than- expected cost pressures will likely prevent “material profit progression in the year ahead.”
Hermes shares fall as much as 3.6% after Bernstein trims the price target of several luxury stocks due to risks for the sector from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Maersk shares fall after being downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan on a higher freight rate exposure than more defensive names in the shipping sector.
Danone shares fall as much as 3.3% before paring losses after the world’s biggest yogurt maker announced new guidance that Bernstein called “modest but sensible.”

Earlier in the session, Asia’s stock benchmark extended declines in a bear market amid growing anxiety over how the sanctions on Russia will impact the global energy market and economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.8% on Tuesday, having lost 3.1% the previous day in its biggest drop in about a year. The slump has left the measure down by almost 23% from a February 2021 peak. Materials firms were among the biggest drags amid volatile price swings in base metals, while financial companies also weighed. “People aren’t able to assess at all, how big of a fallout there is going to be from the sanctions on Russia” as well as its invasion of Ukraine, said Tetsuo Seshimo, a portfolio manager at Saison Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “This is something no one’s been prepared for and everyone’s rushing to respond to what’s happening.” The Asian benchmark is poised for a third day of declines amid investor angst over the fallout from the war in Ukraine and sustained regulatory pressure on China’s technology sector. Benchmarks in China, Taiwan and the Philippines were the day’s worst performers.

Japanese stocks fell as traders assessed inflation risks amid the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. The Topix slid 1.9% to 1,759.86 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 1.7% to 24,790.95. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, decreasing 1.8%. Out of 2,176 shares in the index, 345 rose and 1,786 fell, while 45 were unchanged. “With the strengthening sanctions on Russia’s economy, there is a worry over supply fears and soaring costs for products that will be a huge damage to the economy and to corporate earnings,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, senior strategist at Nomura Asset Management.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady after three days of gains and the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers; NOK, SEK and EUR are the best G-10 performers; AUD and CHF lag. Scandinavian currencies and the euro led gains as they pared some of the losses induced by the war in Ukraine while currencies that had benefited, such as the Australian dollar and the Swiss Franc, slipped. The euro briefly rose above the $1.09 handle on news that the EU is considering a joint bond sale to finance energy and defense spending. The Australian dollar led losses as recently established long positions were liquidated. Australian business sentiment improved in February as an outbreak of the omicron variant dissipated, easing supply- chain disruptions and reviving demand, a National Australia Bank survey showed. Poland’s zloty and Hungary’s forint led gains among emerging-market currencies versus the euro, after both tumbled to record lows this week; the ruble erased gains after earlier rising as much as 25% versus the dollar in offshore trading amid disagreements between EU governments on a move to ban Russia’s oil imports.

The ruble was indicated as much as 25% higher versus the dollar in offshore trading before paring the gain. That may reflect disagreements between European Union governments on whether to follow the U.S. in seeking a ban on imports of oil from Russia. Russian local markets remain closed through Wednesday.

In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped seven basis points and yields on core European bonds also rose. Treasury yields rose by 4-7bps, led by the belly; German bund yields were 8-9bps higher while Italian yields fell by up to 4bps. The spread between 10-year Italian and German yields — a key gauge of risk in the euro region — tightened. Another spread that tightened is the 5s10s curve, because 5Y yields today rose 10bps to 1.804%, meaning that the difference between the 5Y and 10Y is now below 6bps, taking out the March 2020 lows and back to 2007 pre-crash levels.

In Europe, bund futures dropped back onto a 165-handle. 10y BTP futures stage a short-lived 100 tick rally. Bund, Treasury and gilt curves bear flatten, belly of the German curve underperforms by 2-3bps. Peripheral spreads tighten significantly with 10y Bund/BTP narrowing ~13bps near 148bps.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it will remove Russian bonds from all of its widely-tracked indexes, further isolating the nation’s assets from global investors.

In commodities, WTI pushed past $122 a barrel on fears of disarray in commodity flows stemming from the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. Brent rose ~3% back on a $127-handle. European gas futures jumped as much as 32% after Russia threatened to cut natural gas supplies to Europe via the existing Nord Stream pipeline. Most base metals trade in the green; LME nickel stages a historic spike, trading above $100,000 a ton before paring gains and being subsequently halted on LME.

Spot gold rallies to highs of $2,021 so far before fading.

Looking at the day ahead, and it’s a pretty quiet day in terms of the events calendar. Data releases include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for January. Central bank speakers include RBA Governor Lowe.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,213.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 421.04
German 10Y yield little changed at 0.06%
Euro up 0.3% to $1.0885
MXAP down 1.6% to 170.26
MXAPJ down 1.4% to 558.11
Nikkei down 1.7% to 24,790.95
Topix down 1.9% to 1,759.86
Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 20,765.87
Shanghai Composite down 2.4% to 3,293.53
Sensex up 1.1% to 53,449.23
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 6,980.33
Kospi down 1.1% to 2,622.40
Brent Futures up 2.6% to $126.36/bbl
Gold spot up 0.5% to $2,008.65
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.18% to 99.12

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Russia’s threat to cut off gas to Europe in retaliation for sanctions sent prices surging more than 30%, as the European Union scrambles to find alternatives
Average pump prices in the U.S. are now $4.173 per gallon, the highest level since records going back to 2000, according to auto club AAA. Government data going back to 1990 show prices have never been higher than they are now. In California, the most expensive U.S. state for drivers, prices have surged to $5.444 a gallon
Britain is heading for a recession in the second half of the year if energy prices remain at current levels, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research
U.K. households are facing the biggest fall in living standards for half a century as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine deepens the cost of living crisis, according to the Resolution Foundation
Surging oil prices pushed Japan’s current account into the biggest deficit in eight years, highlighting the economy’s vulnerability as it braces for additional fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Japanese funds bought the largest amount of euro-denominated bonds in more than a year as yields soared amid low currency-hedging costs. Investors acquired a net 1.15 trillion yen ($10 billion) of the securities in January, according to the latest balance- of-payments report released on Tuesday. They sold a net 15.4 billion yen of Russian bonds, the most since March 2014, according to the data

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

In Asia-Pacific, stocks declined amid headwinds from global peers as geopolitical and supply concerns remain centre stage. ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in commodity-related sectors including energy after oil prices receded from highs. Nikkei 225 fell below the 25k level for the first time since November 2020. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued but with losses in Hong Kong cushioned by some reprieve for big tech, while the mainland was pressured on developer woes after Yuzhou Property defaulted on an interest payment.

Top Asian News

China Stocks Slide as Inflation Risks Complicate Easing Path
Hong Kong’s Mass Covid Testing Could Be Postponed to April: SCMP
Asia Stocks Drop as Traders Weigh Impact of Russia Sanctions
Indonesia’s Coal Miners Are Bracing for New Export Curbs

European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, after an initial boost to sentiment on source reports around large-scale EU bond issuance; albeit, this upside has waned. Similar action has been exhibited in US futures, ES +0.4%, though performance there is positive across the board once more after a brief foray back into negative territory. Within European, sectors are equally mixed with Basic Resources subdued as base-metals waned after LME action while Banking names remain at the top of the pile given yield action. UK Chancellor Sunak and City Minster Glen met with some London-listed Cos, demanding that they signal a more robust approach towards their own holdings in Russia, via Sky News; however, some fund managers were concerned it would turn them into forced sellers.

Top European News

IWG Soars as Davy Highlights ‘Excellent’ Momentum Into 1Q
Fear Grips Global Diesel Markets on Russian Supply Crunch
Schaeffler Suspends Earnings Guidance on War in Ukraine
How Europe Became So Dependent on Putin for Its Gas: QuickTake

In Fixed Income, debt extending declines as risk sentiment recovers and Russia abides by no fire rules governing evacuation routes from Ukraine. Bunds also undermined by reports suggesting that the EU is ready to embark on huge joint issuance to pay for energy and defence measures. Gilts only briefly appeased by solid 2051 DMO re-opening sale and USTs remain heavy ahead of a 3 year note auction.

In commodities, WTI and Brent remain underpinned and have not attempted to move with any conviction out of the sessions ranges in European hours, that sees a peak of USD 123.38/bbl USD 127.99/bbl, respectively. UK PM Johnson is planning to tap new areas of the North Sea for oil and gas reserves, according to The Times. Venezuelan President Maduro said talks with the US were polite and productive, while negotiations will continue. Libya’s NOC lifted the force majeure and resumed output at the Sharara oil field. IEA’s Birol says that oil prices can still go above today’s prices; could release a substantial amount of oil stocks if required. LME Nickel saw gains in excess of 100% taking it above USD 100k/t, prompting the LME to suspend trade; spot gold/silver are firmer on the session though off highs and seemingly capped by USD 2020/oz and USD 2031/oz for gold. CME suspended approved status for warranting and delivery of six brands of gold and silver until further notice. LME has suspended trading in Nickel; suspension is, at a minimum, for the remainder of today. LME Nickel contract on all venues suspended as of 08:15GMT, inter-office trades should not be booked for Nickel after this point. Goldman Sachs raised its 3-month gold target to USD 2,300/oz from USD 1,950/oz, while it raised its 6-month target to USD 2,500/oz from USD 2,050/oz and raised its 12-month target to USD 2,500/oz from USD 2,150/oz. CCB International Global Markets received an extension on missed nickel margin calls.

US Event Calendar

6am: Feb. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, 95.7, est. 97.2, prior 97.1
8:30am: Jan. Trade Balance, est. -$87.3b, prior -$80.7b
10am: Jan. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 0.2%
10am: Jan. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Talking of dislocations, it was yet another wild 24 hours for markets, with further crazy swings in commodities driving a major risk-off move in markets with the S&P 500 (-2.95%) relentlessly falling all day to the lowest since last June with the DAX at 16 month lows and in bear market territory 9 weeks after hitting all time highs.

The day was filled with downbeat Ukraine news as political officials close to the latest round of peace negotiations poured water on any hopes that the conflict would be resolved in the near-term through negotiations. Specifically, Russian negotiators reportedly said the talks didn’t meet expectations, Ukrainians saying there were no significant results, while French President Macron, who is liaising between interested parties, said there wouldn’t be a diplomatic solution within the coming weeks. This dragged risk assets lower through the session. It all led to the continued risk selloff and inflationary pressures working their way into a number of assets.

For commodities, we were already coming out of their strongest week in aggregate since at least the 1950s, as I wrote about in yesterday’s chart of the day (link here). They’ve built on these gains so far this week and yesterday saw the Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (+3.02%) advance for the 10th time in the last 11 sessions. Oil prices were at the forefront of this, with Brent Crude (+4.32%) rising to $123.21/bbl, which is the first time it’s closed above $120/bbl since 2012. That advance masked some sizeable intraday swings as well, since it had been trading around $135 and $128/bbl around the time of the Monday and Asian European open, before falling back throughout the day as remarks from Chancellor Scholz seemed to push back on aggressive energy sanctions against Russia, by describing their oil and gas imports as of “essential importance”. It does feel that the pressure is building on extending sanctions to Russian energy exports across European countries. Public opinion will matter here and there was Handelsblatt survey suggesting Germans would back stopping Russian energy imports. Of course Russia could act first on this front, especially if it felt a ban was coming. Indeed, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reportedly threatened to halt Nord Stream 1 gas supplies on state television yesterday.

Meanwhile, there were some reports that the European Commission would be revising its energy strategy to try and reduce EU dependence on Russian gas by 80% in 2022, which would make some of the Russian import bans more tenable. On the other side of the Atlantic, Congressional leaders in both parties apparently reached a deal to ban Russian energy imports into the US, independent of Europe, though apparently President Biden hadn’t made any decisions on a Russian oil import ban.

European natural gas futures hit another record high of €227/MWh yesterday thanks to another +18.0% increase, and at one point shortly after the European open they hit an intraday peak of €345/MWh (+78.6% at this point early in the session). This is now up more than 20-fold from where it was trading just a year earlier. Food prices also bore the brunt, as wheat futures increased +7.03% to a new all-time high. In addition Nickel rose an extraordinary +66% on the day as a short squeeze materlialised on supply concerns.

Overall it’s fair to say that if commodities stay at these elevated levels, it will make life even more difficult for central banks, who will have to try and thread the needle between preventing inflation becoming entrenched without aggravating the slowdown with higher interest rates.

We’ll have to wait and see how this unfolds, but in the meantime there’s been a massive rise in investors’ expectations of future inflation. In Germany, the 10yr breakeven has soared a further +17.8bps to 2.57%, a record in Bloomberg data going back to 2009. In Italy the equivalent measure is up +16.3bps to 2.38%, the highest since 2008. And it’s not obvious that investors are viewing this as a purely transitory surge, with the Euro Area 5y5y forward inflation swap that looks at inflation in the 5 year period starting 5 years from now, rising +9.9bps to 2.20%, a level not seen since early 2014. In the US, 10yr breakevens increased +14.8bps to 2.85%, the highest level on record and the largest daily increase since March 2020.

Ultimately, that big increase in inflation expectations outweighed the decline in real rates and led to a bad day for sovereign bonds on both sides of the Atlantic. Yields on 10yr bunds (+5.4bps), OATs (+3.9bps) and BTPs (+5.9bps) all moved higher by the close. Those on 10yr Treasuries were up +4.3bps to 1.77%, and we also saw the 2s10s yield curve flatten below 20bps for the first time this cycle intraday, touching 18.9bps before closing -3.0bps lower on the day at 21.9bps. All this before the rate hiking cycle has even started. For rates however, the two big events on the calendar this week are both taking place on Thursday, with the ECB’s decision as well as the US CPI reading for February, and previous occasions have had a sizeable influence on how markets are pricing in the monetary policy outlook.

Against that backdrop it was another bad and volatile day for equities. It started very poorly around the European open when the STOXX 600 hit an intraday low of -3.83% in the first hour of trading. By the close it had turned around to “only” close -1.10% lower, but that still marked the index’s lowest level since exactly a year ago today and now means the index has lost over -15% since its all-time closing high in early January. The Dax (-1.98%) has now lost -21.12% since the peak on January 5 and is at 16-month lows.

US indices saw even larger losses yesterday, with a notable move lower after Europe closed following the aforementioned headlines tempering expectations for a near-term diplomatic solution. The S&P 500 (-2.95%) had its worst daily return since October 2020 and moved back into correction territory thanks to heavy losses among the more cyclical sectors, while the VIX index of volatility (+4.47pts) hit its highest level in over a year, at 36.45pts. In turn, those losses saw the NASDAQ decline by an even larger -3.62%, more than -20% from its all-time high reached in November, and for the first time the FANG+ index (-4.41%) of megacap tech stocks closed more than -25% beneath its all-time high back in November.

Safe havens were one of the few beneficiaries from yesterday’s moves, with the US dollar index (+0.65%) strengthening to a 21-month high. Conversely the Euro (-0.68%) weakened for a 6th consecutive session to close at $1.085. Another haven beneficiary were gold prices, which closed at an 18-month high of their own at $1998.11/oz.

If you’re looking for any hope after a day of gloomy news, reports of the latest Russian demands seemed to be less excessive than over recent days, noting they would stop military action should Ukraine forego claims to enter any blocs and if Ukraine recognised Crimea, Donetsk, and Lugansk as Russian territory or independent. While not palatable for Ukrainian negotiators, the demands are at least traveling in the right direction.

Asian equity markets are trading lower again this morning though with mainland Chinese markets leading losses. The Shanghai Composite (-1.99%), CSI 300 (-1.69%), Nikkei (1.21%), Kospi (-0.80%) and the Hang Seng (-0.45%) are all trading in negative territory as the Russian-Ukraine conflict shows no sign of cooling. Moving ahead, stock index futures in the DMs point towards a negative start as contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.18%), Nasdaq (-0.34%), Dow Jones (-0.27%) and DAX (-0.57%) are weak. Brent crude is +2.0% up at $125.7/bbl with WTI futures gaining +1.4% to trade at $121.03/bbl. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-yr US Treasury note moved +2.2bps higher at 1.795%.

Early this morning, data showed that Labour cash earnings in Japan rebounded + 0.9% y/y in January (vs Bloomberg consensus: +0.1%) and against December’s revised -0.4% drop, while inflation-adjusted real earnings surprisingly gained +0.4% y/y in January (vs consensus -1.0%), posting the first rise in five months. It followed a revised decline of -2.3% in the preceding month. Separately, Japan’s bank lending (+0.4% y/y) rose at the slowest pace in a decade in February and following a downwardly revised +0.5% increase in January. In central bank news, the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda this morning stated that the Japanese economy is yet to recover fully from the pandemic impact and also mentioned that the central bank would ramp its purchase of JGBs or conduct fixed-rate operations if the 10-yr JGB yield moves beyond the desired range.

Elsewhere German retail sales grew by +2.0% in January (vs. +1.9% expected) yesterday, and factory orders were up by +1.8% (vs. +1.0% expected). Foreign orders drove the rise with a +9.4% gain, contrary to domestic orders which fell -8.3%.

To the day ahead now, and it’s a pretty quiet day in terms of the events calendar. Data releases include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for January. Central bank speakers include RBA Governor Lowe.

END

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

Today one of China’s largest banks fails to pay a margin call after the monster nickel squeeze outlined to you above.

(zerohedge)

One Of China’s Largest Banks Fails To Pay Margin Call After Today’s Monster Nickel Squeeze

MONDAY, MAR 07, 2022 – 10:00 PM

Around the time Peabody was served with a $534 million margin call on its hedging coal futures short, which it funded with a new $150MM unsecured (10%) revolver from Goldman Sachs, one of China’s largest banks was also served with a margin call for hundreds of millions of dollars on a nickel short gone terribly bad after the price of Nickel did… well this:

However, unlike Peabody, a unit of China Construction Bank Corp – one of China’s “Big Four” banks – was given additional time by the London Metal Exchange to pay hundreds of millions of dollars of margin calls it missed Monday amid an unprecedented spike in nickel prices. The reprieve from the LME – which just last week sent out thousands of erroneous margin calls on metals contracts – means that the unit, called CCBI Global Markets, is not formally in default, Bloomberg reported citing sources.

The details of the non-payments aren’t quite clear: Bloomberg notes that the deferred default “isn’t necessarily an indicator of any problems at the parent company” although Bloomberg may be merely trying not to antagonize a major client. Instead, the media conglomerate suggests that the non-payment is more likely due to a failure by one of its metals-industry clients to make margin payments to CCBI Global Markets, which is a broker on the LME’s open-outcry trading floor. That in turn, left CCBI Global Markets struggling to arrange payment of the unusually large margin calls after the end of the business day in Asia, as nickel prices exploded throughout Monday.

As reported earlier, Monday’s monster squeeze was driven by market participants with short positions being forced to close out as they couldn’t meet margin calls.

But while a big Chinese bank may have had immunity, others may not be so lucky: Bloomberg previously reported that Chinese entrepreneur Xiang Guangda – known as “Big Shot” – had a large short position on the LME through his company, Tsingshan Holding Group, the world’s largest nickel and stainless steel producer. It’s unclear whether that particular trader received a margin call and if he paid it.

And so, as we wait for more massively short squeezed names to emerge, we can’t help but wonder if this is precisely the start of the “liquidity crisis” predicted by Zoltan Pozsar; after all, he has called virtually everything else spot on so far…

end

CHINA/RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA/FRANCE/GERMANY

Xi Tells Macron & Scholz China Opposes Russia Sanctions, Warns Crisis “Spinning Out Of Control”

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 10:25 AM

Caught between the West and its growing closeness over the years with Moscow, China is facing a dilemma on Ukraine. On Monday Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized that “The China-Russia relationship is valued for its independence.” Wang added: “We are determined [to keep the relationship] free from interference or discord sown by third parties.”

On Tuesday President Xi Jinping held a virtual meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, wherein the Chinese leader urged “maximum restraint” in Ukraine to prevent a humanitarian crisis and said China is “pained to see the flames of war reignited in Europe.”

Further Xi warned that a spiraling economic war would result in blowback as sanctions over Russia “will deal a blow to the stability of global finance, energy, transportation and supply chain, dragging down the world economy amid the pandemic,” according his words, for which immediate stabilizing efforts must be taken by Europe’s leaders.

Chinese state broadcaster CCTV later said he called for the three countries of France, Germany, and China to support peace talks between Ukraine and Russia – further calling the situation “worrying” and holding the potential of “spinning out of control”.

But crucially, at a moment the West is unanimous in standing with Ukraine – along with much of the world in the wake of the invasion which is now 13 days in – China has till now refused to condemn Russia’s action. What’s more is that Beijing has also not used the term “invasion” and has vocalized its opposition to the far-reaching sanctions being implemented against Russia.

Putin and Xi were last together during the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics, where the two affirmed a “no limits” strategic partnership. More recently there have been reports that Xi and Putin may have secretly coordinated the start of the invasion, with The New York Times a week ago alleging that China requested that Russia hold off on launching the war till after the Olympics.

Despite China increasingly coming under pressure globally and now finding itself in an awkward position regarding Ukraine, it appears to have doubled-down on support for Moscow, after echoing arguments condemning NATO expansion as a threat to Russia’s “legitimate security concerns.”

Lately Chinese national media has even used Putin’s own “denazification” of Kiev language to justify the attack. As one report details of state media’s commentary:

Many countries have roundly rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s argument that his attack on Ukraine is needed to achieve the “denazification” of that country. But the argument is alive and well in Chinese state-run media.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned in a televised speech a few days ago that the military operation against Ukraine is aimed at protecting the people who have suffered abuse and genocide by the Kyiv regime for eight years. For this reason, Russia will seek to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine,” one article on the state-backed site Wen Wei Po read.

Thus it’s now wonder that Xi while opposing the West’s sanctions conveyed to his German and French counterparts that they must “play an active role” in settling the Ukraine crisis, but “according to the needs of all parties concerned.”

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFFAIRS

The EU is planning to reveal on Thursday a massive joint bond sale to fund energy and defense. The problem is who will buy the bonds now that the ECB is stopped QE.

(zerohedge)

EU To Reveal Plan For “Potentially Massive” Joint Bond Sales To Fund Energy And Defense

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 07:44 AM

In an arrangement similar to the bloc’s $2 trillion COVID rescue fund, the European Union has decided to jointly issue what Bloomberg dubbed “potentially massive” bond sales to finance an energy and defense fund to help the bloc maintain its resolve as its financial sanctions against Russia bite.Paolo Gentiloni

According to Bloomberg, the proposal will be taken up during the EU leaders’ summit in Versailles, France, that’s set to begin on Thursday. However, the bloc’s leaders are still working out the details on how the debt sales would work and how much money they intend to raise. The money will be used to help strengthen the bloc’s energy and military infrastructure.

“We have to find new tools to address new issues this crisis raises in front of us,” the EU’s commissioner for the economy, Paolo Gentiloni, said Monday evening to lawmakers in Strasbourg, France. He added that he thought EU leaders would give political guidance on further moves at the summit.

A spokesman for the EU Commission declined to comment on specifics, but other sources told BBG that the plan right now is to model the new fund after the pandemic relief effort.

One option is to structure it like the bloc’s SURE program, some of the officials said, referring to a scheme that was used to finance employment support initiatives in the aftermath of the pandemic, under which member states repaid soft loans provided by the commission.

The invasion has forced the bloc to rethink its energy strategy, as the various green agendas of European states have left them dependent on imports of gas and oil from Russia. Presently, more than 40% of EU gas imports and one quarter of its oil come from Russia. On Monday, Moscow threatened to cut gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. But as the EU transitions away from Russian gas, the real question is: what are the alternatives?

While the bloc could use the money to pay for LNG imports from the US, those purchases will be far more expensive, while refilling storage to an average level will also be challenging due to soaring prices. The price tag could reach €70 billion ($76 billion) compared with €10 billion in previous years, according to a report by Belgian-based think tank Bruegel.

But energy isn’t the only issue. The EU is also thinking about how it will spend more on defense. It all started with Germany, which recently pledged to revamp the Bundeswehr, its military, by – among other things – bringing back the draft.

“Tens of billions of euros will be needed to strengthen European defense, to not rely on the U.S. and to be self-sufficient in energies, to be independent of Russia,” Slovakia’s finance minister, Igor Matovic, said on Tuesday. “Joint EU bonds are the way to go — Slovakia will surely need a helping hand from richer European countries, we can’t do it ourselves.”

Research from Jefferies shows that should non-US NATO Members seek to reach the 2% threshold for military spending, they would need to increase their defense budgets by 25%.

European currencies rallied on the news, led by the Norwegian krone, while the euro looked to be on track for its first daily gain in seven days.

That said, it is unclear if Europe’s remission into money printing means that any hopes of ending QE – because in a time of soaring yields, the price indiscriminate ECB could soon be the only buyer – are now effectively over.

EU/RUSSIA//

European Union To Phase Out Russian Oil And Gas As It Seeks Energy Independence

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 04:40 PM

On Tuesday, the European Commission published a new ambitious energy strategy to “make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels well before 2030,” according to NYTimes.

“We must become independent from Russian oil, coal, and gas,” the commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, said in a news release.

“We simply cannot rely on a supplier who explicitly threatens us,” he said.

The commission said it aims to reduce as much as two-thirds of its natural gas needs from Russia within a year and seeks to halt all imports of LNG and natgas by the end of the decade. It expects to increase gas imports from other countries this year. If implemented, this could be a massive boon for LNG supplies in Qatar and around the Gulf of Mexico.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a turning point for Europe to become energy independent. Russia supplies the 27-country bloc about a third of its gas, 27% of its oil imports, and 46% of its coal imports. Add it all up, and it’s tens of billions of dollars a year for President Vladimir Putin.

“It is time we tackle our vulnerabilities and rapidly become more independent in our energy choices,” EU climate policy chief Frans Timmermans said. “Putin’s war in Ukraine demonstrates the urgency of accelerating our clean energy transition.”

The UK also appears to be on board with phasing out Russian oil, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. It’s expected to be in sync with the US.

Europe’s push for energy independence could be extremely painful for businesses and households who are already dealing with record-high natgas prices, soaring power, and rising petrol prices, along with rapid food inflation. EU lawmakers are already considering joint bond sales to lessen the impact from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

We noted Monday, as there was buzz the commission would propose steps such as tapping new gas supplies on Tuesday, there is a problem: as the following JPMorgan chart shows, European oil and gas production has been steadily declining in recent years as a result of the continent’s infatuation with ESG, even as imports from Russia have been steadily growing.

Goldman noted today that Europe should “shift its short-term focus from decarbonization to energy security, likely relying for now on more coal, more nuclear, and gas generation, and overall allowing for more carbon emissions.” And by doing so, this will need to be a world effort.

end

GERMANY/RUSSIA

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Russia is trying to recruit Syrian mercenaries in their Ukraine battle

(EpochTimes)

Russia Trying To Recruit Syrian Fighters In Ukraine Conflict: US Official

MONDAY, MAR 07, 2022 – 08:30 PM

Submitted by the Epoch Times

U.S. intelligence officials believe reports of Russians recruiting Syrian fighters in the Ukraine conflict are credible, a senior U.S. military official said Monday. Speaking to reporters in a call, the official said it’s not clear how many have been recruited or if they have been sent to Ukraine as of Monday.

“We don’t know how many and how good they are and we couldn’t speak to the quality of each individual that they that they’re going to try to recruit or where they would get them from or how they would prepare them if they would even prepare them,” the official said, answering a question about reports Syrian fighters are being recruited.

“We think it’s noteworthy that [Russian President Vladimir Putin] indicated a willingness to rely on foreign fighters to fight the war in Ukraine,” said the official.

Over the weekend, reports from the Wall Street Journal and other outlets, citing anonymous U.S. officials, said that Syrians who are skilled in urban combat are being recruited by Moscow. Russia has been operating inside Syria since 2015, while the Kremlin has backed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Since the Feb. 24 conflict started, there have also been reports of Russia’s military using Chechen soldiers. Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of Russia’s Chechen Republic, was seen in social media videos addressing hundreds, or possibly thousands, of soldiers in the capital, Grozny, in recent days.

Kadyrov said on Feb. 26 that his forces have been deployed to Ukraine, according to a video posted online. Several pro-Kyiv news outlets have also posted videos to social media that purportedly showed captured or dead Chechen prisoners of war.

“The president (Putin) took the right decision and we will carry out his orders under any circumstances,” said Kadyrov at the time.

Meanwhile, fighters have poured in from Western countries to fight on behalf of Kyiv’s government, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Last week, Zelensky said in a news conference that some 16,000 foreign nationals signed up to fight against Russia, although the figure could not be independently verified.

Putin, via state-run media, claimed last week that Ukrainian forces were using human shields as well as “foreign mercenaries” from the Middle East on the ground.

“The fact that we are fighting specifically against neo-Nazis is shown by the very course of hostilities. Nationalist and neo-Nazi formations, and among them there are foreign mercenaries, including those from the Middle East, are hiding behind civilians as a human shield,” Putin said. He did not elaborate or provide an example.

More than 1.7 million Ukrainians fleeing Russia’s invasion have so far crossed into Central Europe, the United Nation’s refugee agency said on Monday, as thousands more streamed across the borders.

Poland, which has the largest Ukrainian community in Central Europe, has received more than 1 million Ukrainian refugees since the conflict began, with the milestone passed late on Sunday.

“This is a million human tragedies, a million people banished from their homes by the war,” the Polish border guard service wrote in a Twitter post late on Sunday.

RUSSIA/SHELL

After facing a huge backlash for that purchase of Russian Ural oil at -28 dollars from spot, Shell has decided to stop all purchases of Russian oil and shut all of its gas stations in Russia

(zerohedge)

Shell Will Stop All Spot Purchases Of Russian Oil, Shut All Gas Stations In The Country

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 08:45 AM

After facing a huge backlash last week and over the weekend when it snapped up a cargo of Russian crude at a bargain price at a time when many other players had started to curtail their purchases effectively creating an informal “self-sanction” embargo, Shell said on Tuesday it is withdrawing from dealing in Russian oil and natural gas, saying it would immediately halt all spot purchase of crude from the country and will phase out its other trading and business dealings, the WSJ first reported.

Over the weekend, Shell had already apologized for the purchase and said it would commit profits from its Russian oil purchases to humanitarian funds aimed at alleviating the crisis in Ukraine. Shell had previously said it would exit its joint ventures with Russian energy giant Gazprom PJSC.

On Tuesday, Shell also said it would also shut its service stations and aviation fuels and lubricants operations in Russia, and it won’t renew any Russian term contracts. It said it would find alternative supplies of oil as soon as possible, though it cautioned it could take weeks to fully make up the difference, leading to reduced production at some refineries.

While the U.S. and its allies left energy out of an array of economic sanctions imposed on Moscow in response to the invasion (although we now know the US will soon ban Russian oil sanctions) many refiners went further shunning Russian crude. Such self-sanctioning has taken a chunk out of global supplies, pushing prices for international benchmark Brent sharply higher. Traders say it is also causing a backup in Russia’s energy supply chain, prompting refiners to cut back production.

END

RUSSIA/EU

Natural Gas prices soar after Russia is now threatening to halt NordStream 1

(zerohedge)

European NatGas Prices Soar After Russia Threatens To Halt Nord Stream 1

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 09:45 AM

European natural gas prices surged Tuesday after Russia threatened the possible closure of the Nord Stream 1 (NS1) pipeline if Western countries decide to ban Russian oil.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia could halt NS1 flows to Germany if European countries and the US go ahead and ban Russian energy products.

“In connection with unfounded accusations against Russia regarding the energy crisis in Europe and the imposition of a ban on Nord Stream 2, we have every right to take a matching decision and impose an embargo on gas pumping through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline,” Novak said.

He added: “But so far, we are not taking such a decision.”

European natgas futures, Dutch gas, surged as much as 32% to around 295 euros a megawatt-hour, about 40 euros below yesterday’s historic higher of 335. Prices have since faded intraday to around 200 euros. Gas prices have more than tripped on an intraday basis within the last two weeks following the Russian invasion and Western countries.

Novak said a ban on Russian oil “would lead to catastrophic consequences for the global market.” He said the surge in crude “prices would be unpredictable. It would be $300 per barrel if not more.”

The comments come after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told NBC this past weekend that the Biden administration is in “very active discussions” with European leaders to restrict Russian oil imports.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Monday that Russian oil and gas are “essential importance” to the European economy. Europe receives one-third of its natgas from Russia, but the dependence varies per country.

Novak said that Russia has other options (China) for selling energy products if Western countries ban Russian oil.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/UPDATES

Here Are All The Latest News And Developments From The Ukraine War: March 8

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 08:52 AM

Courtesy of Newsquawk, here is a summary of the relentless firehose of all Ukraine war news to hit in the past few hours.

Discussions/Negotitations:

Russian forces have held fire within Ukraine, as of 07:00GMT, via Reuters citing Ifx/Defence Ministry; subsequently, Ukrainian Presidential Official says the evacuation of civilians from Sumy and Irpin is underway.

Energy/Economic Updates

EU is reportedly considering a massive joint bond sale to finance defence and energy, according to Bloomberg citing sources; plan could be announced as early as this week. An announcement which sparked risk-on action, details here
EU Commission has prepared a new set of sanctions against Russia and Belarus following the invasion of Ukraine, according to Reuters sources; to be discussed today, blacklisting further oligarchs, providing guidance over monitoring crypto-assets, ban export of maritime tech to Russia.
EU will unveil a plan on Tuesday to reduce gas imports from Russia by two-thirds within a year, according to FT.
US House Majority Leader Hoyer said a bill to ban Russian oil imports could be introduced this week.
Shell (SHEL LN) intends to withdraw from the Russian oil and gas business, in the immediacy will cease spot purchases of Russian oil and gas.
Ukrainian leaders are expected to send a letter to US Congress asking the US to ban from the stock market all companies that pay taxes to Russia’s government, according to WaPo citing a letter.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno announced that Japan banned exports of oil refining equipment to Russia, while Japan imposed personal sanctions on another 20 Russian citizens and 12 Belarusian citizens, according to Sputnik.
MSCI said it is to discontinue certain indexes following the reclassification of Russia.
Fitch decided to suspend commercial operations in Russia with immediate effect, while it downgraded Belarus from B to CCC.
German Economic Affairs and Climate Action Minister Habeck does not see Russia halting flows from Nord Stream 1, according to RTL.
Russian gas flows to Slovakia via Ukraine have decreased sharply, via Reuters citing Entsog data.

Third Party Remarks

UK MPs support a package of sanctions to toughen government powers and speed up sanctions against Russian tycoons.

Defense/Military Imports

Russian President Putin said they will only use professional soldiers in its Ukraine operation and will not use conscript soldiers in Ukraine.
EU Commission VP Dombrovskis says that Russia President Putin is likely to increase his military ambitions and challenge NATO in Baltic Sea nations, unless Putin is stopped in Ukraine, via Politico; additionally, Dombrovskis was sceptical about diplomatic overtures towards Putin and maintained that nothing should be off the table re. sanctions.

Other

China and India are to conduct border discussions on March 11th, via Bloomberg citing an Indian official.
Russian Foreign Ministry says that Russian and the US should go back to the principle of peaceful co-existence as was the case during the Cold War, according to Interfax.
Iranian President says Tehran will not back down from its red lines regarding the nuclear deal, via Fars.
Qatar stepped up mediation between US and Iran regarding a nuclear deal, according to FT sources; Qatari officials have also been working to facilitate direct talks between Washington and Tehran, should a deal be reached.
Russia says it understands N. Korea’s decision to renew missile tests, via Reuters citing Ria; when N. Korea paused missile tests it only saw increased military cooperation between Seoul and Washington.

END

RUSSIA UKRAINE

Ukrainian Women Being Forced Into Prostitution As Sex Traffickers Prey On Refugees

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 05:00 PM

According to a handful of reports in the British press, criminal gangs are looking to exploit Ukrainian women fleeing the war so that they can be sold into sex slavery.

At this point, some 1.5 million people (mostly women and children) have already fled Ukraine over the past 11 days alone, according to the UN’s numbers. Gangs are looking to manipulate women by first offering them a place to live.

Warnings have come from police and aid workers in Poland, who have warned that sex traffickers are attempting to snatch up vulnerable girls weary from the long, perilous trip.

Most of the time, sex traffickers are posing as “good samaritans”, according to the Daily Mail.

The criminals are offering unaccompanied women and children promises of safe accommodation and free transport, posing as good Samaritans to lure them away from the safety of official checkpoints.
It comes as European Union officials expressed concerns on Saturday that as many as seven million people could cross into neighbouring countries such as Poland, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary in the coming months, which campaigners say will create a ‘disturbing spike in human trafficking’.

What’s more, the UN on Tusday declared the exodus from Ukraine repreents Europe’s “fastest growing refugee crisis since World War II'” (that means the situation is even worse than the Syrian Refugee Crisis from the middle part of the last decade.

Poland so far is the most popular country for Ukrainian refugees, being right next door. All of this has led to an increase in Ukrainian refugees getting into random cars with strangers they do not know.

Tom Bell, a British aid volunteer working at Poland’s Medyka border checkpoint just 50 miles from the Ukrainian city of Lviv, told the Telegraph: ‘A lot of desperate Ukrainians are getting picked up in a car by someone they’ve never met and don’t know.

Volunteers have been checking IDs to look for women traveling with strange men who might be targeted by the criminal gangs.

One source who spoke with the Daily Mail said she saw a confrontation between one 27-year-old woman and her would-be sex trafficker.

Meanwhile, a 27-year-old Ukrainian woman told MailOnline: ‘I heard from a friend who crossed into Poland and told me she went with a guy who said he would take her to Warsaw for free but when they got there he asked for money.

“He got aggressive with her but he didn’t get physical just saying he owed her the money and would have to pay her by working for him.”
“She started shouting and managed to run away as people were watching. We are spreading the word among people to be careful.”

One expert in human trafficking told the Daily Mail that the situation would likely only get worse.

Lauren Agnew, human trafficking policy expert for the charity CARE, told MailOnline: “The war in Ukraine will create a worsening situation in terms of human trafficking.”
“It will have a vulnerable domino effect across Europe and refugees are at an increasingly high risk of exploitation.”

She added that there would be a spike in the number of refugees being forced into prostitution.

“It is certain that as time goes on we will see a spike in numbers caused by refugees being exploited by traffickers and ending up potentially as sex workers, involved in criminal gangs or forced labour and domestic slavery.”
“These gangs prey on the precariousness of refugees and the war is a business opportunity for them to make a profit and get people into Europe and ultimately the UK.”

Gangs typically rely on some version of the “bait and switch”: they offer women a “free ride” to some European country, but when they arrive, the trafficker insist that the women must now repay them by “working for them”.

McDonald’s temporarily closes all 850 Russian locations

(zerohedge)

McDonald’s Temporarily Closes All 850 Russian Locations In Response To Boycott Threats

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 02:05 PM

So much for “Big Mac Diplomacy”.

After waffling on whether to close its Russian restaurants for the past couple of weeks, McDonald’s has just announced plans to temporarily shutter roughly 850 restaurants in Russia, becoming the latest American company to retaliate against Russian President Vladimir Putin by pulling its business in the country.

Already, American politicians like Sen. Elizabeth Warren have applauded McDonald’s on its decision.

But the decision is bound to have its drawbacks. As Foreign Policy reminded us a couple of years ago, McDonald’s expansion to Moscow during the final days of the Soviet Union became a testament to the notion that globalization would lead to an end to conflict.

In recent days, calls for McDonald’s and Coca-Cola to abandon the Russian market have intensified. There were 847 McDonald’s locations in Russia at the end of last year. During Coke’s discussion of its full-year earnings results in February, CEO of Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company (which is responsible for distribution in Russia and Ukraine), had pointed to the two markets as an important driver of growth, CNN reports.

Twitter users are employing the hashtags #boycottMcDonald’s and #boycottCoke (or #boycottPepsi) in response to their operations in Russia.

end

This is going to be big and hurt the West dramatically

(zerohedge)

Putin Signs Countermeasure Decree Limiting Russian Exports After Biden’s Russian Oil Import Ban

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 03:25 PM

Within hours of Joe Biden announcing a far-reaching ban on all US imports of Russian oil – while warning Americans that gas prices are about to “go up further” – Vladimir Putin is reported to have signed his own counter-measure decree.

Russia’s RIA news agency is reporting that the new decree blocks all exports and raw materials from Russia “of certain materials” – with state media reports noting the specific list will be made public in two days.

Details remain vague and murky, with the below rush machine translation of the RIA story reading as follows…

“President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the application of special economic measures in the field of foreign economic activity to ensure the security of the Russian Federation.”

“The head of state instructed to determine in two days the lists of states where the import of certain products and raw materials will be prohibited,” the report continues.

“He also instructed to ensure a ban on the export of products and raw materials from Russia until December 31, the list of which will be determined by the government.”

Bloomberg cited Putin as saying the “move is part of special economic measures in response to sanctions by US and other countries.” The restrictions might reportedly exempt materials deemed for personal use.

Meanwhile the speculation begins over just what the ban will encompass…

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Poland Has Made Available All Its MiG-29 Jets For US To Transfer To Ukraine

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 02:45 PM

In the latest major development in what’s become a “huge operation” mounted by individual NATO member states to assist Ukraine’s military, Poland has announced it is ready to transfer all of its Russian-made MIG-29 jets to the Rammstein Air Base in Germany.

A statement posted Tuesday to its Ministry of Foreign Affairs website indicated the jets will be placed “at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America” which in turn is expected to send them to Ukraine, after President Zelesnky has issued a series of urgent appeals for fighter planes.

“The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Government, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Rammstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America,” it said.

It’s part of a controversial deal which had in the last days emerged and which was widely reported as being in the works, despite Poland as recently as Sunday greatly downplaying it – perhaps not wanting to prematurely provoke Russia’s wrath. It was previously confirmed that the other side of the deal would see Washington quickly replace Warsaw’s depleted MiG-29 jets with F-16 fighters.

The statement from Poland’s government followed with: “At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes.”

“The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MIG-29 jets – to act in the same vein,” the statement concluded.

Days ago Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US is “very actively” looking at resupplying Poland if it can quickly transfer its own Russian-made aircraft to Ukraine.

“We are looking actively now at the question of airplanes that Poland may provide to Ukraine and looking at how we might be able to backfill should Poland decide to supply those planes,” Blinken previously from in Moldova, while on a trip that highlighted the growing refugee crisis from the war.

“A perilous delivery” it will be, ABC’s chief Washington correspondent observes, given Russia has threatened to militarily block major external weapons shipments…

Crucially, there was also this recent statement from an unnamed Polish official given to FT: “I can’t speak to a timeline but I can just say we’re looking at it very, very actively.” The official said further, “Poland is not in a state of war with Russia, but it is not an impartial country, because it supports Ukraine as the victim of aggression. It considers, however, that all military matters must be a decision of Nato as a whole.”

Already many NATO nations have been supplying Ukraine with anti-tank and anti-air should fired missiles, but if a large-scale movement to get more fighter jets to Kiev gains momentum, this will certainly mark a huge escalation, and the Kremlin has recently warned it could attack such provocative military supplies coming from the West.

end

Sleep walking into disaster

Inbox

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak threatens to embargo oil exports, halting gas supplies through Nord Stream 1, which would completely cutoff all of Europe from gas supplies. Now only would homes not have heat, power plants could not generate electric! Wow, what a surprise to see this as an option. It is no different to what the West has done to Russia by freezing freezing State funds. War has a habit of destroying economies in a quest for victory which gets fought not just on battlefields but in public support and economic pain for all participants direct and indirect. And in this struggle, no nation will be spared change. And to think that Russia will not suffer greatly is a mistake. Russians have sacrificed in the past as have other people and they are asked now to sacrifice, which they will do. To repeat what historically has been asked throughout centuries of that part of the world. Whether we in the west will sacrifice to the same degree and cope is debatable. What will we do when denied a new IPhone or the latest in fashion, or be forced to restrict purchase of goods no longer availed?

Meanwhile Europe and America seek alternative supply to Russia, as if time will wait. Where this will come from is a mystery? Time waits for no one. Reaching out to Venezuela seems like a stretch given the existing sanctions and previous punishment of government officials. But then the absence of policy, makes for irrational behavior. And perhaps, Venezuela will sell out, screwing China and Russia; but it will come at a cost ill afforded in favor of a untrustworthy buyer. More oil from Canada would be logical for continental security but Keystone was the first the Biden crowd killed, so that it will not be brought back, as it means certain political blowback, and a admission of a error in judgement. Incompetence often is overhyped by indifference until past decisions become the shackles to present day options limiting actions. Such behavior is leading the world to war and devastation. And it is not helped by yellow journalism we see daily overturning the truth to make for public confusion and hysteria leading to war. It is very clear, the purpose is to beat the drums of war over peace. Last week i wrote about a roadmap for peace and asked for voices of peace to raise the cry. Budapest Agreement, what is that? It does not matter, we want war and war we will get was the response. The moral cowardice of so many western officials to admit that Ukraine was never a viable NATO entity is leading to sacrifice many Ukrainian lives for a lack this public admission. When have any politicians admitted they were wrong? Remember Iraq, Afghanistan, or even Vietnam? All lies in the end and it is no different now. And all the talk or implementation of delivery of old MIG’s from former Soviet countries as a new idea to help the Ukraine is nothing more than the actual escalation of war by NATO with indirect NATO involvement, for the public to see. What is happening, is that Russia has been forced to say NO on a physical battlefield which happens to be the Ukraine. This lack of moral courage to admit a error of judgement is what is leading to the mass hysteria and the vilification of all things Russian and the wrecking of the Ukraine. However, revenge will come in shape of blowback that the West has refused to consider or really accept. And only now is starting to deal with. And this will not be unified effort as each party will find itself in a struggle for orderly supply of basics materials to food to services. Human nature is such that universal suffering is never equal.

Foreign mercenaries already have hit Ukrainian soil, obviously paid for by foreign interests making the Ukraine the new killing fields of tomorrow. The evacuation corridors hopefully will continue in various Ukrainian cities allowing people to depart so war can finish in those cities with limited future civilian deaths. Many cities like Kiev are a mess with civilians being used as shields by NeoNazi types of the Azov crowd. Why Israel has chosen to fight Russia is a mystery? But then again public sentiment is never a factor for government indifference. And this with over a million Russian Jews living in Israel. This will be a source of internal strife at some future time. What people are unaware of or fail to acknowledge is that both China and Iran have offered to send experienced troops to fight if needed. Even the delusional would be Emperor, Erdogan has realized his own danger and is acting as bridge for peace discussions between Russia and Ukraine. so the respective foreign minsters will meet at some future date, if events on the ground do not render such a meeting as mute. At the moment, this is the last attempt at possible peace. Sadly, i doubt the foreign actors in this play will allow it prove fruitful.

War never stays focused on one theatre as allies align or separate and it will be no different now. You never know a true friend until you share a foxhole of pain. Nor will it stay kinetic just in the Ukraine. The actual war in Ukraine is mostly over ( i will detail this later) and attempts at foreign involvement will not end well. The mop up operation will soon commence and more effective killing weapons will be deployed as the march west continues of Russian forces to rid the entire Ukraine of the the Neo Nazi’s types. There exists proof that Regular Ukrainian forces are now fighting AZOV troops to protect civilians. And hopefully countries taking in refugees are astute enough to check for these Nazi types as not to allow them in fester localized future problems.

Zelensky has been offered peace and he has refused. As no question he is a puppet with several masters, including the WEF. So the real war to take down Russia will soon take form and then it goes for China. Russia will not lose in the Ukraine without losing Russia. Russia will never allow this to occur. This will go nuclear before Russia bents or gives in. People do not understand the Russian mindset. And while a richly colored character Putin is not the Hawk some hardliners are in the Kremlin. Each side has wing nuts!

Sadly we all now are being induced to this needless war and consequently be put to hardship unparalleled in recent history. Have you heard of food rations or gas rations? Because it is coming to you in the near future. This is the consequence of incompetence however organized. Previously, i have detailed how prices for commodities would rise. No one cared and time did not allow for reaction to changing realities. When China stated it would be increase purchases for grains from Russia it was a strategic move not a supportive one in a growing war front. Between Russia and Ukraine you have 30-40% of global supply of grains. Ukraine is no position to buy fertilizer let alone ship anything by sea as Russia has landlocked the Ukraine. And soon enough the moves west will stop any I’ll conceived rail shipments westward. Canada will see its’ share of shipments drop proportionally to what China will buy from Russian and Ukrainian production and it will not be in USD. Bank on this! And say goodbye to grain shipments by rail through Vancouver causing major supply chain redirection to where at what cost. And what will that do to the balance of payments in the Canadian current account ?? Especially with skyrocketing fertilizer prices making North American crop prices soar, thanks to Russia cutting off supply or ammonia shipments and Belarus being denied Baltic port shipping. Theses same Baltic ports have now lost 80% of their yearly revenue. You may now see the picture that what is military conflict in the Ukraine is already much broader in scope and is actually becoming a global realignment of interests.

We were never asked if we agreed, because no politician cared and the question for each of us is whether we are ready for the changes that will befall us, as this is now daily visible in rising prices in everything from gasoline to food. Distractions of dreadful conditions in the Ukraine will shorty fade as disruptions occasion what we in the west took for granted. Politicians will tell us this the price we must pay for something we never asked for. And the question is not whether we are ready but how we will cope in a world that will change around us as the momentum of change exacts its’ toll. As Voltaire said “the only constant is change”.

END

special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us

(Courtesy Warnews/24/7)

Sadly so few people care

Inbox

3/7/22
by WarNews24/7
“The Russians will destroy them if they do not surrender”

The American colonel, Douglas McGregor, gives his own opinion on everything that happens in Ukraine, after 11 days of Russian invasion, on an American network.

Speaking to Fox News, Douglas McGregor said that “Vladimir Putin is carrying out something he has been warning us for at least the last 15 years, that he will not tolerate US forces or their missiles on his border.”

“Just like us, we did not tolerate Russian troops and missiles in Cuba. And we ignored him! And he reacted in the end. Under no circumstances would Ukraine be allowed to join NATO. What is happening now is that the battle in Ukraine is almost over.

All the Ukrainian troops over there have been largely surrounded and cut off. “You have a concentration of 30,000-40,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the southeast and if they do not surrender within the next 24 hours, I guess the Russians will eventually destroy them.”

“That’s why Zelensky is meeting with Putin’s representatives. Game is over. And he should negotiate the best deal he can reach and we have told him, the US president has told him, that if he chooses neutrality for Ukraine, we will support him. And I believe that Vladimir Putin will do that for Western Ukraine. This will be Ukraine across the Dnieper River.

But behind him in the East where he is I am not sure what he has planned for there. If he will form another democracy and annex it to Russia because it has historically been Russia. However, the region of Western Ukraine is not. “He knows this and it is fine to live with it as a neutral state,” he explained.

“We are trying to demonize Putin and Russia”

“He is not interested in crossing the Dnieper and heading west to the Polish border. I believe you will also find out from the negotiations that he is willing to conquer this neutral region according to the Austrian or Finnish model. “At the moment, Russia is already leaning on Estonia and part of Latvia, and Belarus is, of course, leaning on Lithuania,” he said.

“He is not interested in going to war with us and has an army that is too small for this purpose. And he knows it. Its economy is smaller than that of South Korea. So, he does not seek such a thing. We blame him for things he does not want to do in our usual attempt to demonize him and his country. “We must remember that Ukraine is the 4th worst country out of 158 countries in the world in terms of corruption,” he added.

“Russia may be 3 or 4 places above them. This (Ukraine) is not liberal democracy, the shining example that everyone gives. It is very far from that.

Mr Zelensky has jailed journalists and his opposition. I do not think we should get involved. The American people believe that we should not get involved. Europeans believe that we should not get involved. “And we must stop sending weapons and encourage the Ukrainians to die in a desperate effort,” he said.

“I see no reason to fight the Russians”
“I do not see any reason why we should fight the Russians for something they have been talking about for years and we just chose to ignore it. And the most important thing is that the population there is identical to theirs (they are Russians). “That’s so annoying.”

Several videos at source:
https://warnews247.gr/amerikanos-syntagmatarchis-h-oykrania-teleiose-40-000-stratiotes-echoun-perikyklothei/

end

Worth watching .. Russia has no fear of reallocation of supply

Inbox

Click the cc for English … with sanctions and boycotts occurring one wonders if there is such thing as a market?

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

GLOBAL VACCINE MANDATES//USA

Peoples Convoy Is 70 Miles Long! – The True Defender !

Inbox

Sooner or later MSM will have to cover this.
Is this America awakening?

https://thetruedefender.com/peoples-convoy-is-70-miles-long/

END

GLOBAL ISSUES//FREIGHT//FOOD INFLATION

end

VACCINE INJURIES/

VACCINE MANDATES

VACCINE IMPACT

Michael Every

on the major topics of the day

Michael Every…

Rabobank: The Ukraine War Is Still Not Priced In

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 09:55 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

On 25 January in ‘The Ukraine Metacrisis’ we argued “Despite the lack of market concern until very recently,…there is a serious risk of a serious war over Ukraine…. we underline this is part of a larger metacrisis that will prompt shifts in the global architecture, creating far greater economic, financial, and geopolitical volatility longer term.” On 7 March, markets finally started to get that message.

Commodities went through the roof again: oil surged, and is surely heading to new record highs over $147 per barrel; natural gas surged, with Europe’s front-month TTF contract at one point hitting the equivalent of $600 per barrel oil(!) – and Russia is now suggesting it may shut down NordStream 1 (not 2); metals surged, and nickel went up 82% on the day, along with Twitter rumours of a huge hit taken from being short; certainly liquidity is evaporating in commodities markets as mark-to-market margin calls are being made; soft commodities surged – and wheat was limit up once again; and as industry expert @JLinvilleFert tweeted, “If this fertilizer market feels different, that is because it is. Our market is used to dealing with long to only slightly short physical world positions. It has never had a truly ‘short’ physical inventory situation. Needless to say, fear is driving the bus right now.”
Equities went in the opposite direction: the Dow is now in a correction (-10% from the peak) and the Nasdaq in a bear market (-20%); the German Dax is on the cusp of a bear market year-to-date (-19.2%); the Nikkei is in a correction (-12.4%). Passive tracking funds who had bought Russian equities now have to carry them marked to zero.
Bond yields bear flattened on the supply-side inflation shock: US 10s were up 10bp and 2s up 13bps, taking 2s-10s to just 22bp at time of writing; at this rate, we could even see the US curve invert before the first Fed hike.
FX saw EUR/CHF briefly crash through parity and the broad DXY hit 99.3, while the Ruble hit 155 at one point Monday before recovering to 128.
Crypto crumbled as the White House will sign an executive order this week aimed at these assets to ensure Russia cannot evade sanctions. No more xxxcoin and/or pictures of marsupials in sunglasses to help maintain their war effort?

So, can we now say what I have heard voices from the buy-side mumble continuously throughout this unfolding disaster – that *finally* the war “is priced in”? No. Even allowing for day-to-day volatility and certain short squeezes, we still can’t.

The White House, in Jimmy Carter fashion, says the US “needs to be prepared for a long, difficult road ahead.” That won’t sell well in November this year, or on Wall Street. Indeed, the usual market-optimism to ”buy the dip” does not hold true when there is no central bank running the show. Yes, the Fed could hold back from tightening into a supply-side shock of epic proportions, which might bring some brief near-term relief. Yet the real pivot needs to come from the war, and wars do not care about markets.

Yesterday saw brief optimism when the Kremlin spokesman said all Russia wanted was Ukraine to say it won’t join NATO and give it Crimea and the two Russian breakaway territories it already held, and the war would stop: an off-ramp! Except there are huge trust issues. And, in typically disinterested, un-Trotskyite fashion, markets did not check that this offer was made AFTER the Russians had already told the Ukrainians the other part of the deal was making President Zelenskiy a figurehead leader with a pro-Russian prime minister running things – which was immediately shot down.

Even without digging, markets could have used game theory techniques favored by those who don’t just buy stuff based on MSCI or JP Morgan dictates while knowing they only have to ‘match benchmark’, whether that be -50% or up 50%, and they have had an ‘acceptable’ year. If Putin was blinking under pressure, what incentive would Zelenskiy have to give up the territory and sovereignty that was already unacceptable to Ukraine before the war started? None. Unless one thought Zelenskiy was thinking “because markets”, which too many in markets apparently think everyone else always is. He wasn’t. And Putin isn’t.

Except where Russia is creating new markets. With Visa and Mastercard walking away, Russian banks are already pivoting to China’s UnionPay as the driver for a new ‘Mir’ system. Which is an ironic name given it means both ‘peace’ and ‘the world’ in Russian; and given this war is about rebuilding a “Russkiy mir” – a Russian sphere of influence. And that war is going to get worse before it gets better. Putin is now more, not less popular in Russia, and is prepared to keep escalating – the country will cut itself off from the global internet on 11 March and go behind a national firewall, like China.

On which, another market fallback line of optimism is that China will sort this out. ‘Now is the time for Beijing to build bridges’ –which it does too much of in the real world– and ‘To show it is a good global citizen’. Again, markets are not paying attention to the actual dynamic. Yesterday, Beijing criticized the *US* for starting this war, and for trying to move NATO into the Pacific, echoing Russia’s talking points. The Foreign Minister stated the friendship between the two nations is “ironclad” and stressed their plans to maintain those ties ahead, adding “No matter how perilous the international landscape, we will maintain our strategic focus and promote the development of a comprehensive China-Russia partnership in the new era.”

On the other hand, The Peterson Institute for International Economics argues:

“…despite Beijing’s insistence that it will not implement sanctions, Chinese firms may well find it in their interest to comply, even while protesting. That is because Washington has made it clear that firms flouting the controls would be put on the Commerce Department’s entity list. The other countries working with the US could shut off violators’ access to their technology too.
Beijing would also pay a heavy reputational cost by undermining such a powerful alliance and in effect standing up publicly for a country that has violated China’s long-stated principle that countries should not invade other countries. Of course, restrictions on sales to China and its massive market would be harder to swallow than those on Russia, but the flip side of this interdependence is that China is still heavily reliant on foreign technology. The more Beijing is seen as enabling Russia’s adventurism, the more it will be seen as a serious security threat by countries other than the US, even if it does not invade Taiwan.”
These issues are not going away. Just as Russia crossed the border into Ukraine, the international community has crossed a border into making internationally supported export controls more legitimate as a tool to punish outliers.”

As Russia shows, sometimes international actors do not act as markets think they will. We already saw that with China’s ‘Common Prosperity’ last year, from which no lessons appear to have been learned by those guided by MSCI and JP Morgan; or those who think CNY is a long-run sage haven when it is so clearly a political currency at a time of soaring geopolitical tensions, and as yesterday’s Chinese FX reserve data fell $8bn when they should have risen $70-80bn, suggesting capital outflows. Moreover, don’t think that the weekend’s ‘Two Sessions’ declaration by China that it wants even more technology and supply-chain self-reliance is not related.

All of this brings us to another key point. As von Clausewitz makes clear, “War is a continuation of politics by other means.” In this regard:

Putin has already lost. He cannot hope to rebuild his Russkiy Mir of hearts and minds, or as an economically viable territory given Western sanctions, even if we now hear rumors of Western preparations for establishing a Ukrainian government in exile; yet
The West also has no achievable political goals: it wants Russia to change, which it will not do under Putin. As such, its economic war risks continued escalation (as argued yesterday) ending with even more market damage, and then, logically, a Hitler-in-the-bunker scenario for a country with thousands of nuclear weapons. Yet if the West now offers Russia an off-ramp, it rewards global irridentism and revanchism at a time when China is already standing firmly behind it.

Is this underlying geopolitical instability being fully priced in by markets that aren’t doing the game theory on that either? I still think not – but we are perhaps starting to get there.

The next shoe to drop is to realise that there is no logic for the usual rapid bounce, or slump, from current low, or high, levels. Unless, that is, the Russians are serious about their ‘offer’ yesterday, and are truly prepared to walk away with their reputation, national security regarding NATO, and economy all in tatters in order to hold what they de facto already had.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

Russia claims that the global oil embargo on it could push prices over $300.00

(zerohedge)

Russia Says Global Oil Embargo Could Push Prices Over $300

MONDAY, MAR 07, 2022 – 03:00 PM

With the US reportedly said to vote as soon as Tuesday on a proposal to ditch trade relations with Russia and Belarus, including suspending oil imports despite repeated objections from Germany which has stated that a collapse in supply threatens “social cohesion”, Russian Deputy PM Novak said that a ban on Russian oil would result in catastrophic consequences for global market according to Interfax, warning that Europe is pushing Russia towards an embargo on gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1, which is currently filled to maximum capacity, although Moscow has not taken this decision yet.

Warning that “no one would benefit from an embargo on gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1”, Novak said that replacing Russian oil deliveries to Europe would take longer than a year.

he also warned that a global embargo on Russian oil could push prices over USD 300/bbl, although he said that Russia knows where it would re-direct oil to if Europe and US refuse it.

Addressing a potential ban on Russian oil, Goldman’s commodities team wrote overnight that Europe’s dependence on Russian oil imports, of c. 4.3 mb/d of which 0.8 mb/d comes from pipeline, suggests that such a coordinated response will likely take time, leaving the possibility for only a US ban in short order.

While the headline of potential further US sanctions are likely to support prices, such a move would likely have negligible impacts on global crude and products markets. The US only imports a little over 400 kb/d from Russia at present (Dec-Feb average), already down from a peak of 770 kb/d in May-Jun 2021. As such, volumes this small are well within the market’s ability to redirect flows and as such Goldman expects minimal overall impact on crude fundamentals.

Such statements will nonetheless likely continue to severely curtail Russian seaborne oil exports, due to the threat of additional sanctions or of public censure. Case in point, the sole purchase of a cargo on Friday was immediately followed by public reprobration, strongly disincentivizing further Western acquisition, with so far no sign of Chinese purchases either.

This, Goldman concludes, “leaves risk to our $115/bbl short-term oil forecast clearly skewed strongly to the upside.”

end

CANADA

Canada is perfectly correct. it could easily replace the USA imports of Russian crude if they allow the Keystone XL pipeline to proceed

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

Canada Says Its Oil Could Replace US Imports Of Russian Crude, All It Would Take Is Approval Of The Keystone XL Pipeline

MONDAY, MAR 07, 2022 – 10:40 PM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Canada’s oil could replace American imports of Russian crude, the top officials of the oil-producing province Alberta said this weekend.

As talks about banning Russian oil imports in the United States and its European allies intensify, reports have started to emerge that the U.S. Administration could be looking to persuade Saudi Arabia to pump more oil or lift some sanctions on Venezuela to help fill the gap that a Russian oil embargo would open.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the United States and its European allies were in “very active discussions” about banning the import of Russian oil over Putin’s war in Ukraine.

Even without sanctions on Russian oil, some of the biggest U.S. importers of Russian crude oil have started suspending their purchases of the commodity.

Canada has long pitched its crude as one that is not produced in rogue government regimes such as Venezuela, Iran, or Russia, and Alberta’s top officials now say that its crude could be the answer to more supply from allied nations to the United States.

Retweeting Elon Musk’s comments that “we need to increase oil & gas output immediately,” Alberta’s Energy Minister Sonya Savage said on Saturday:

“Agreed. And it should come from Alberta, home of the 3rd largest oil reserves. Alberta is the answer to US Energy security. Real emissions reductions, reliable, right next door.”

Alberta’s Premier Jason Kenney said that he and Savage would be attending the CERAWeek conference in Houston this week, where “We will be meeting with decision-makers to secure access to markets, attract job-creating investment to our province, and argue for Canadian energy to displace Russian conflict oil.”

Kenney also said that Alberta would be delighted to welcome a visit from U.S. President Joe Biden, as one reportedly being considered to Saudi Arabia.

Kenney noted that in a visit by President Biden to Alberta “We could discuss how to ship nearly 1 million barrels of day of responsibly produced energy every day from the USA’s closest friend and ally! All it would take is his approval for Keystone XL. Easy.”

end

Oil Spikes To Session High After Report Biden To Ban Russian Oil, LNG, Coal Imports Today

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 08:25 AM

Confirming yesterday’s speculation that a ban on Russian oil imports is imminent, moments ago Bloomberg reported that the Biden administration is set to impose a ban on U.S. imports of Russian energy as soon as Tuesday without the participation of European allies, who as we discussed yesterday have been vocally – especially in the case of Germany – against such a blanket ban (because the import much more Russian oil and gas than the US). The Biden ban comes only after most oil buyers had already imposed a self-imposed boycott of Russian oil on fears of further sanctions, with virtually no western companies buying Russian crude in the past two weeks.

The ban will include Russian oil, liquefied natural gas and coal, according to two Bloomberg sources who noted that the decision was made in consultation with European allies, who rely more heavily than the U.S. on Russian energy. In other words, the allies agreed to disagree on how important Russian oil is to them.

Russian oil made up about 3% of all the crude shipments that arrived in the U.S. last year, according to EIA data. Overall, imports of Russian oil and petroleum products represented about 8% of the U.S. total. U.S. imports of Russian crude in 2022 have dropped to the slowest annual pace since 2017, according to the intelligence firm Kpler. As we reported overnight, Canada said that it could easily replace all US imports of Russian crude… if only the Keystone XL pipeline is approved and yet Biden still refuses to accept the simplest solution just to appease the ultra progressive wing in the Dem party.

Russia’s gas and oil had so far been mostly spared from sanctions introduced by the U.S. and European countries, due to concern over the economic impact, particularly on Europe, which has greater dependence on Russian oil and, in particular, natural gas. Canada has announced a ban on Russian crude oil.

Commenting on the probability of a Russian oil ban, last night Goldman said that “if the ban is put in place, expect the White House to simultaneously announce offsetting measures, potentially including additional releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and measures to encourage domestic production. We are skeptical that Congress would suspend the federal gasoline tax to offset a rise in prices, though this cannot be ruled out.” Indeed, another reserve release appears inevitable, with the IEA head Fatih Birol telling the FT that “IEA ready to release more oil to ease soaring energy prices.”

In kneejerk response, oil prices have spiked higher, rising above $124 and hitting fresh session highs.

Now Courted By Biden, Socialist Strongman Maduro Hails “Cordial” US Talks For Oil Supplies

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 01:25 PM

Socialist strongman Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela has hailed ongoing “cordial” talks with the team dispatched by Biden to Caracas on Monday as the White House is desperate to tap new supplies of oil. Maduro, once targeted by US regime change efforts – particularly during the Trump administration – is now apparently being courted by Washington, as the White House is signaling it could drop the oil embargo on the major OPEC Latin American nation.

“We have agreed to work on an agenda going forward, issues of interest,” Maduro said. “It seemed to me very important to be able, face to face, discuss issues of maximum interest to Venezuela and the world. And I ratify, as I said to the delegation, all our will to advance in an agenda of well-being and peace through diplomacy, respect and the highest hope for a better world.”

The irony is of course that as Washington does an economic full-court press on one strongman in Moscow, it’s now looking to bring countries like Iran and Venezuela “out from the cold.” The other irony is that Russia remains Venezuela’s closest major outside backer, and has been so through past years of immense Washington pressure on Maduro which came during the Trump administration. A US official on Tuesday afternoon said the talks are ongoing.

While neither the Venezuelan nor US sides released any details of the face-to-face talks, Maduro briefed his cabinet on positive steps forward, as NBC details:

But he seemed to indicate he was willing to accede to U.S. demands that he resume negotiations with his opponents as a first building block for any relief from U.S. sanctions that have been punishing the OPEC nation for years.

It’s been no less than three years since the US ceased formal diplomatic relations with Caracas – while also recognizing the prime opposition leader as ‘Interim President’. This week’s surprise developments beg the question: whatever happened to Juan Guaidó?

On this front, The Wall Street Journal reports:

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said his government will restart talks with the opposition after he met with senior U.S. officials who are considering lifting oil sanctions on Caracas as energy prices surge because of war in Ukraine.
“We’ve decided to reactivate the process of national dialogue,” Mr. Maduro said late Monday on state television. “This dialogue should provide all of the political guarantees for the coming years.”

Talk of normalization for the sake of finding alternative oil supplies at a moment Biden has pulled the trigger on banning energy imports from Russia has ignited bipartisan outrage in Congress, with Marco Rubio leading the way. But Democrat Sen. Bob Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has joined Rubio in blasting any level of rapprochement with Maduro.

“If the reports are true that the Biden administration is brokering the purchase of Venezuelan oil, I fear that it risks perpetuating a humanitarian crisis that has destabilized Latin America and the Caribbean for an entire generation,” Menendez in a statement. “… As such, I would strongly oppose any action that fills the pockets of regime oligarchs with oil profits while Maduro continues to deprive Venezuelans of basic human rights, freedoms, and even food.”

And here’s the reaction out of Florida…

The Associated Press aptly summarized earlier: “But the impetus for a risky outreach to Maduro — who has been sanctioned and is indicted in New York on drug trafficking charges — took on added urgency following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ensuing U.S. sanctions there, which promises to reshuffle global alliances and add to rising gas prices driving inflation already at a four-decade high.

“Powerful Democrats and Republicans alike on Capitol Hill last week began voicing support for a U.S. ban on Russian oil and natural gas imports as the next step to punish Russia President Vladimir Putin for the invasion,” the report added.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

NEW ZEALAND

END

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0898 UP .0033 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN

USA/ YEN 115.71 UP + .339 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3100 DOWN 0.0014

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 79.72 PTS OR 2.35%

Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 291.76 PTS OR 1.39%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.93% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 291.76 PTS OR 1.39%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 79.72 PTS OR 2.35%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.93%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 430.46 PTS OR 1.71%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2007.10

silver:$25.93-

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 99.02 DOWN 27 CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.92% UP 4 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.155% UP 0 AND 8/10 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.05%// UP 5 in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.58 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 53 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.109% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.48% AND NOW ABOVE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0881 UP .0015 or 15 basis points

USA/Japan: 115.70 UP 0.334 OR YEN DOWN 33 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3092 DOWN 21 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN 97 BASIS pts to 1.2897

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED )..UP 6.3187

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3260

TURKISH LIRA: 14.52 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.155

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.851% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.241 UP 5 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.19 DOWN 11 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 10.29 PTS OR 0.15%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 41.72 points or 0.33%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 7.85PTS OR 0.13%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 165.20PTS OR 2.16%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 296.94 PTS OR 1.34%

WTI Oil price 128.31 12: EST

Brent Oil: 130.60 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 131.00 UP 12.00 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE UP BY 12 BASIS PTS )

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.109

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0902 UP .0036 OR UP 36 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3102 DOWN .0011 or down 11 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 115.69 UP .322

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2887 UP .0088 (CDN dollar DOWN 88 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 124.14

Brent OIL: 128.55

USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.867 UP 10 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.233 UP 4 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.50

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA ROUBLE: 127.75 DOWN 15.25ROUBLES (ROUBLE UP 15.25 )//

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 184.74 PTS OR 0.56%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 51.77 PTS OR 0.39%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 35.13 DOWN 1.32 PTS OR 3.62%

GLD: 191.51 UP 5.10 PTS OR 2.74%

SLV/ 24.45 UP .75 PTS OR 3.16%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Rollercoaster Session Sends Stock Soaring Then Tumbling To Session Lows As Gold Soars

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 04:07 PM

Compared to yesterday’s insanity, the market may still be broken (for details read, the latest note from Charlie McElligott “Where Do We Even Begin With These Broken Markets”), but at least the level of insanity was dialed down.

After tumbling overnight to 4,138, just shy of the previous 2022 intraday low, stock meandered in a tight range before soaring higher more than 100 points after the AFP repackaged an old, almost day-old ABC interview with Ukraine’s Zelensky, in which he suggested he was no longer pressing for NATO membership and which the market took as a new, conciliatory development. As a result, the momentum-chasing algos quickly sent spoos into overdrive, up as high as 4,275… before markets realized that they are surging on non-news, and retraced almost the entire move higher. And with lack of any other positive newsflow from Ukraine, spoos reversed and slumped lower closing at the lows of the day session, breaching the 4200 level which had been viewed as a critical support for the index.

The move also sparked a sharp swing in oil…

… which had surged to a fresh 14-year-high around the time Joe Biden announced he would impose a ban on all Russian energy exports (oil, LNG, coal but not uranium).

And even though the VIX continued its wild swings, if contained for now by the critical resistance around 35 beyond which all hell tends to break loose…

… there was not enough love for tech names today…

… to allow the Nasdaq to emerge from a bear market, closing down 20% from its all time highs for a 2nd consecutive day.

The latest rollercoaster has not helped the plight of the market sentiment, and as Bloomberg calculates, this is the second worst start for stocks since 1900, with only 2009 worse: 44 trading days into the year, the S&P is down 11.86%, and only 2009’s -24.3% crash through this day was worse (of course, in 2009 the Fed would announce QE in just a few days and everyone knows what happened next). And, as Bloomberg notes, what “troublesome” is that seven of the prior 10 worst years of equity performance through this point also featured a recession.

Of course, what every trader wants to know is how much more downside there is, and unfortunately according to an analysis from Bloomberg’s Simon White, the time to buy the dip will come… but not yet.

Catching a market bottom can therefore be very profitable if you get the timing right. That is why it pays to watch for signs of capitulation. The following charts show that while signs of stress are growing, we have not yet had the sort of capitulatory move associated with previous market bottoms.

First, consider liquidity: Excess liquidity is the difference between money growth and real economic growth. Therefore it is a measure of the liquidity “excess” to the needs of the real economy and so available to support risk assets. Declining money growth and rising inflation have taken excess liquidity much lower, which points to more downside for US and DM equities.

Second is advance vs declines, in other words, the cumulative number of stocks on the NYSE advancing minus those declining on a daily basis. This has been falling but is not yet at a level associated with the late 2018 and 2020 lows.

Next we have the number of new highs minus new lows. This is the number of stocks on the NYSE making new 52-week highs minus those making new 52-week lows. At flush-out bottoms, significantly more stocks are making new lows than we have currently.

Sentiment is a contrarian indicator. As Warren Buffet put it, “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”. The American Association of Individual Investors’ Bull vs Bear Sentiment spread has fallen is approaching contrarian levels, but it has room to fall further before a bottom is in.

Finally we have the VXV/VIV ratio. This is the ratio of longer-term equity volatility to short-term equity volatility (3 month vs 1 month). When it is high it implies complacency in the market as longer-term volatility is rising but short-term volatility is relatively low. The VXV/VIV ratio has recently been falling, but remains much higher than at previous significant market bottoms.

Put/call ratios are also not yet at elevated enough levels consistent with panic buying of downside protection.

But while everyone has an opinion about what comes next, the truth is that nobody knows what’s really going on as JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade said: “I don’t think the market’s ignoring anything at the moment, to be honest with you. In fact, everything is hyper-sensitive as to what may happen. It’s so fluid and we will see what happens. It’s really tough to predict day-to-day.”

That said, broken markets continue and the biggest shock overnight was the continued short squeeze in Nickel, which exploded to over $100,000, up more than 250% on the day, before being halted by the LME amid a relentless margin call frenzy which left at least one Chinese tycoon billions poorer.

Meanwhile, the flight to safety continued, if not in the “digital dollar” space as Bitcoin continues to just copycat the Nasdaq and trade like a high beta growth stock, then certainly into real gold, which spiked above its all time closing high of $2064, rising as high as $2070 before fading gains.

Curiously, while cash flew into precious metals, it stayed away from the ‘safety’ of US Treasuries, which not only led to continued widening in yields with the 10Y back to 1.86%, a level last seen a week ago despite sliding to 1.66% yesterday…

… only this time the continued blow out in yields has been on the back of Breakevens which today hit a record high of 2.95% while real rates have collapsed.

But perhaps the most important charts today showed that the curve is now just 2 basis points away from inversion on the 3s5s…

… and just around 20bps on the 2s10s…

… as the US economy grinds ever slower, and just as the Fed prepares to hike “six or seven” times as Biden desperately hopes that the Fed can somehow bring inflation lower when all it will achieve instead is usher in the next recession.

I) LAST NIGHT

I) /MORNING TRADING

END

AFTERNOON

END

II) USA DATA

U.S. trade deficit climbs 9.4% to record $89.7 billion

March 8, 2022 at 8:41 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

U.S. keeps setting records for imports

The numbers: The nation’s trade deficit climbed 9.4% in January to a record $89.7 billion as the U.S. bought more foreign oil, autos and other goods. High prices due to soaring inflation also played a role.

The deficit rose from a revised $81.9 billion in December.

Last year, the U.S. posted the highest trade deficit ever. The record gap mostly stemmed from the U.S. recovering faster than other countries. Imports have surged while the growth in American exports has lagged behind.

Key details: U.S. imports rose 1.2% in January to a record $314.1 billion. Imports have topped $300 billion for three months in a row for the first time ever.

Exports of U.S.-made goods dipped 1.7% to $224.4 billion.

The surge in the trade deficit over the past several months partly reflects U.S. ports trying to clear a backlog of goods that have piled up in nearby warehouses or on ships waiting to unload.

Big picture: The U.S. has run large deficits for years and there’s little sign the trend is going to reverse anytime soon. The American economy is still outpacing the rest of the world and the Russian war on Ukraine threatens to delay a full global recovery.

The trade deficit is likely to remain at or near record levels until the rest of the works catches up to the U.S. and buys more American-made products and services.

IIb) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATE STORIES

end

iii) USA inflation//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

Expect To Pay $3,000 More This Year For Gas And Food As Prices Skyrocket

TUESDAY, MAR 08, 2022 – 03:05 PM

Prices at the pump have now soared to $4.173 per gallon for regular gasoline, according to Price Information Service (OPIS). This firm collects and calculates US pump prices for American Automobile Association (AAA). On Monday evening, prices surpassed the previous record high set in 2008 and continue marching higher Tuesday.

As gasoline prices increase and inflation reaches the highest levels in four decades, times are becoming much harder for the average consumer, experiencing a persistent rise in the prices of many goods and services. Steeper gas and food prices have forced millions of people to rejigger household budgets.

The latest research note from Yardeni Research estimates the average household will spend an additional $2,000 per year in gasoline on top of an extra $1,000 in food expenses. Adding this all up, the typical household will spend $3,000 less this year on other things.

Consumer sentiment remains at an eleven-year low as inflation soars. People living paycheck to paycheck are getting hit the worst. Some are choosing between feeding their family or filling up their tank.

“Today, I’m not filling up all the way because I have other expenses,” Bebi Amzad, who commutes to Newark from Linden, N.J., told NYTimes. “Everybody is hurting.”

The latest jump in gas prices is 55 cents a gallon in just the last week and 63 cents since Feb. 24, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

On social media, consumers were furious with the Biden administration about the meteoric rise in gas prices.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1501254547255091204&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpersonal-finance%2Fexpect-pay-3000-more-year-gas-and-food-prices-skyrocket&sessionId=0f1fbae73971c9356409e4acdd3e629f800a5272&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=true&id=1501268276642414597&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpersonal-finance%2Fexpect-pay-3000-more-year-gas-and-food-prices-skyrocket&sessionId=0f1fbae73971c9356409e4acdd3e629f800a5272&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=true&id=1501268339611422722&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpersonal-finance%2Fexpect-pay-3000-more-year-gas-and-food-prices-skyrocket&sessionId=0f1fbae73971c9356409e4acdd3e629f800a5272&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

Americans at all income levels are being impacted by inflation, which has weighed on President Biden’s polling number ahead of midterms.

Tom Kloza, the global head of energy analysis for the OPIS, warned on Monday, “we’ll hit $4.50 a gallon before it turns around … the risk is how bad this gets, how long this goes on. Even $5 a gallon nationwide is possible. I wouldn’t have predicted that before the fighting started.”

Meanwhile, Biden blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for ‘hurting Americans at gasoline pumps’ as if there had been no increase in gasoline prices until just two weeks ago.

So what’s the breaking point for consumers as gas and groceries become more expensive by the week?

iii) USA economic stories

iv)swamp stories

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

The King Report for March 8, 2022 Issue 6713

Independent View of the News

Germany Signals Opposition to Ban on Russian Energy Imports
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he opposes cutting off energy supplies from Russia, calling imports of oil and gas of “essential importance” to the European economy.
    While the European Union needs to find alternatives, “this won’t happen overnight,” Scholz said Monday in a statement. “It’s therefore a conscious decision on our part to continue the activities of business enterprises in the area of energy supply with Russia.”…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/germany-signals-opposition-to-cutting-essential-russian-energy

Ukraine Update: Talks Planned; Germany Opposes Russia Oil Cut
Scholz Rules Out Russian Energy Ban in Near Term (2:40 p.m. CET)
    Russian forces destroyed an atomic-physics lab in Ukraine’s second-largest city, the head of the world’s nuclear watchdog said. The inventory of radioactive material at the site was small and monitors detected no radiation release…
    Russia is still demanding that Ukraine declare its neutrality with changes to its constitution, as well as recognize Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and the independence of separatist regions in the Donbas, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday, according to Reuters…
https://www.yahoo.com/now/ukraine-oil-surges-u-mulls-072910496.html

Germany and Netherlands oppose the EU granting Ukraine membership status for now.

Reuters: The Biden administration is willing to move ahead with a ban on Russian oil imports into the United States without the participation of allies in Europe, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Biden advisers weigh Saudi Arabia trip for more oil
To help repair relations and convince the Kingdom to pump more oil, Axios has learned…
https://www.axios.com/biden-saudi-trip-oil-b7a91070-8045-4155-9120-a35d59fd7603.html

Biden woos Venezuela, Saudis for oil … while clinging to climate-change restrictions at home
A group of senior U.S. officials flew to Venezuela on Saturday for a meeting with President Nicolás Maduro’s government to discuss the possibility of easing sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports as the Biden administration weighs a ban on imports of Russian oil and gas… The trip comes just days after Maduro and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke over the phone about boosting the partnership between their countries… Maduro is still holding a half-dozen American oil executives on bogus corruption charges… https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2022/03/07/desperation-biden-woos-venezuela-saudis-for-oil-while-clinging-to-climate-change-restrictions-at-home-n453456

@redsteeze: Biden is letting Russia mediate on a new Iran deal while also not sanctioning Russia oil while also negotiating with Maduro to import more oil when the US didn’t recognize Maduro who also negotiated with Putin. This is Joe Biden as President.

GOP Sen. @marcorubio: Biden Admin secret meeting with Maduro was a huge PR boost for Maduro Regime… And for what?  The amount of oil Venezuela can produce right now is insignificant

ESHs rallied sharply after oil declined sharply on reports that Germany opposes sanctioning Russian oil and natural gas. Aiding and abetting the ESH rally was, once again, hope that the Ukraine-Russia peace talks on Monday in Brest, Belarus would be fruitful.

Oil peaked at 18:00 ET. After trading in a $9 range in the opening minutes of trading on Sunday night, oil traded within a small range until it broke down when the US repo market opened at 7 ET. The report that Germany opposed a ban on Russia energy products didn’t appear until 8:40 ET. Someone knew about the German opposition to sanctions on Russia oil and natural gas hours before the announcement. This stalled the rally attempt: Ukraine: No Significant Results on Truce, Ceasefire at Talks – BBG
Ukraine to Continue Talks with Russia, Podolyak Says – BBG 12:55 ET

The rally quickly resumed. For the past few months, early equity tumbles in the US have been followed by midday or afternoon rallies. Traders were playing the pattern. The rally quickly stalled again on this:

Russian Negotiator Ukraine Talks Didn’t Meet Expectations – IFX (Interfax) 13:10 ET

Russian Negotiator Medinsky Says It Is Too Early to Speak of Anything Positive after Third Round of Negotiations with Ukraine – Breaking Market News

U.S. House to Vote on Removing Trade Relations with Russia and Belarus, Banning Oil Imports, as Soon as Tuesday – Congressional Aide – Breaking Market News

EU Aims to Cut Dependence on Russian Gas by Almost 80% in 2022 – BBG   13:17 ET
The European Union’s executive arm is mapping out a path to end the bloc’s reliance on Russian gas which could see import needs cut by almost 80% this year… The European Commission is revising its energy strategy after President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in an effort to reduce the Kremlin’s leverage. The plan, to be presented Tuesday, will propose steps such as tapping new gas supplies and increasing energy efficiency already this year, one of the officials said, and aims to deliver independence from the region’s biggest supplier of the fossil fuel well before 2030 — sooner than previous projections…
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/eu-aims-to-cut-dependence-on-russian-gas-by-almost-80-this-year-1.1733827

ESHs and stocks hit new lows at 13:20 ET. Another rally attempt began; it was modest and ended quickly. ESHs and stocks slid to new lows but hit a bottom at 14:43 ET. The Nasdaq 100 hit -3%. ESHs and stocks went inert for Psaki’s press conference.

Psaki said, “No decision has been made, at this point, by the president about a ban on importing oil from Russia… Oil is part of the discussions with Iran…” ‘A deal is close, but details need to be worked out.’
Near 15:00 ET, the US 2-10 year yield spread flattened to 19.4bps. Nasdaq hit -3%. The smell of recession is in the air! Wheat settled at an all-time high of $12.94/bushel. As we noted weeks ago, stagflation is here. However, a severely harmful inflationary recession looks to be on the way.

US January Consumer Credit tumbled to $6.838B from $18.898B; $24.5B was consensus.

U.S. Lawmakers Strike Deal to Ban Russian Crude, Hike Tariffs 15:06 ET
Russian oil makes up about 3% of U.S. crude imports annually… and 8% of all petroleum product imports…  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/u-s-lawmakers-strike-deal-to-ban-russian-crude-hike-tariffs

After ESHs and stocks made new lows at 15:17 ET, the last-hour manipulation commenced. After a 15-handle spurt higher, ESHs retreated. Another spurt appeared at 15:40 ET. It was modest and very short lived. ESHs and stocks sank to new lows. The daily lows appeared at 15:59 ET. The S&P 500 Index declined 2.95%, the worst declined since October 2020. Nasdaq closed -3.62%, -17.99% YTD!

Oversight Democrats Quietly Cancel Climate Hearing into Big Oil ‘Disinformation’ amid Ukraine Crisis – “Now that world events have shown the importance of domestic oil and gas production, you are canceling the March 8, 2022 hearing with oil company board members even after you sent letters ‘demanding their testimony’ on that date,” Republican leaders on the committee wrote in a letter Friday.
https://dailycaller.com/2022/03/04/democrats-oversight-committee-fossil-fuel-industry-hearing-climate-change/

GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: The price of gas is now up *71%* since Joe Biden became president.

@MarketRebels: According to GasBuddy, the national gas price average has risen 49.1 cents per gallon in the last 7 days, the largest 7 day rise in history

Presidential approval ratings correlate much closer to gasoline than stock prices.

Presidential Approval and Gas Prices
Gas prices had a significant and negative effect on change in approval (see row 4 in column 1 of Table 9.1). A 10-cent increase in gas prices led to a .60 percentage point drop in approval. When using the logarithm of gas prices instead, a 10 percent increase in real gas prices lowered approval by about .72
percentage points (see Table 9.A3 in the appendix)… Analysis of changes in monthly presidential approval from 1976 to 2007 suggests that gas prices did exert an independent effect on presidential approval above and beyond traditional economic measures…
https://pprg.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/Presidential-Approval-and-Gas-Prices.pdf

Friendly reminder: On The Big Guy’s first day as president, “Through an executive action, Biden revoked permits for the Keystone XL Pipeline and put a temporary moratorium on oil and gas leasing in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, moves hailed by environmental and indigenous activists.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2021/01/20/here-are-all-the-actions-biden-took-on-his-first-day-in-office @METhompson72: Nickel’s move today (+66%, +102.3% in 5 days) was like 30 standard deviations. One of the most unlikely events ever in financial market history. (EV battery prices to the moon!)

Reuters: U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to sign a long-awaited executive order this week on cryptocurrencies, possibly on Wednesday, a source familiar with the matter said on Monday.

Scientists identify new gene differences in severe COVID patients
Severe COVID have genes that predispose them to one of two problems: failure to limit the ability of the virus to make copies of itself, or excessive inflammation and blood clotting…
   “Blood clotting is one of the main reasons why patients with COVID develop a shortage of oxygen. So that’s potentially targetable to prevent those clots from forming,” Baillie said…
https://nypost.com/2022/03/07/scientists-finds-gene-differences-in-severe-covid-patients/

Why we must demand that leaders who got COVID wrong admit it and apologize
Leadership in school districts that closed for the entirety of 2020-2021 school year because American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten told you to — and you were too afraid to counter. Whether school boards, mayors or governors, those in charge who kept schools closed have to be held accountable… you couldn’t have done it without cover from our politicized health agencies. You, Rochelle Walensky at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, allowed Weingarten to craft absurd, unscientific policies that kept kids out of school…
     Apologize to the children whose lives you’ve stunted and who may never recover from the educational loss. Apologize to the kids who received speech therapy through masks because you refused to acknowledge that masking had been pointless in stopping COVID-19 spread…
    Worst of all, you shut down dissenting opinions from other scientists because you knew yours could not withstand scrutiny. You have been a disaster for this country in leading us through the pandemic…
https://nypost.com/2022/03/06/why-we-must-demand-apologies-from-leaders-who-got-covid-wrong/

The U.S. Government Paid Media Outlets Millions of Dollars While They Ran Covid-19 Vaccine Propaganda  https://beckernews.com/the-u-s-government-paid-media-outlets-millions-of-dollars-while-they-ran-covid-19-vaccine-propaganda-44300/

The most dangerous investment vehicle, in our humble opinion, is US 30-year bonds. Very few money managers and traders have operated in a secular US bond bear market. PS – Inflation increased during the three months of the 1980 recession and then tumbled. Some emerging market money managers or traders have navigated inflationary recessions.  Buying US bonds to hide during an inflationary recession could turn into a disastrous investment decision, especially when real rates are historically negative.

If an inflationary recession appears, the Fed must choose between saving the dollar and debt defaults. The Fed will try to do both initially. But eventually, the Fed must save the dollar because if it goes kaput, it will take the Fed and the US government with it.

@Scutty: US benchmark real yields now -107bps and <15bps away from fresh record lows. Were trading ~-40bps only three weeks ago.

Today – There is an Apple event. Apple usually rallies into Apple events and then reverses during or after the event. Traders will play for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside. The equity markets remain treacherous because at any moment a headline or rumor can generate a wicked move.

The S&P 500 Index low on Monday was 4199.85; it closed at 4201.08. Obviously, 4200 is important support. Today is a pivotal session for equities. If they cannot rally today, the table will be set for the commencement of the necessary capitulation to purge the equity market. There is no telling how severe or how fast the capitulation will be.

ESHs hit 4181 (-7.50) at 18:00 ET (open). They are +11.50 and USHs are -1 8/32 at 21:35 ET.

Expected economic data: Feb NFIB Small Business Optimism 97.3; Jan Trade Balance -$87.3B; Jan Wholesale Inventories 0.8% m/m, Sales 1.0% m/m

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4520; 100-day MA: 4570; 150-day MA: 4526; 200-day MA: 4466
DJIA 50-day MA: 35,055; 100-day MA: 35,325; 150-day MA: 35,180; 200-day MA 35,016

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4153.02 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4558.18 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD negative – a close above 4466.67 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4286.25 triggers a buy signal

@IAPonomarenko: Major General Vitaliy Gerasimov, the chief of staff with Russia’s 41st Combined Arms Army, has been eliminated by Ukraine’s military intelligence operators…

@charliekirk11: If the government wanted to investigate Real “Russian Collusion,” it should look into the Russian funding of Green Energy initiatives in the United States.

@CarlZha: When Russians told Biden in 1997 that relentless NATO expansion will force Russia to look to China, Biden joked “Good Luck”. Well, well…
https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1500839485642194944

Time to De-Fund Russia’s Military Modernization – J. Michael Waller WSJ op-ed June 2-3, 1995
Russian nuclear scientists receiving aid money from the U.S. are still active in developing arms for Russia’s nuclear and chemical weapons industry… Col. Gen. Maslin said that such programs “benefit the nation security of the United States”. Yet when pressed by reporters acknowledged that the Russian military plants are in the process of modernizing the country’s strategic nuclear-weapons systems…
   Somehow this is not a serious problem to the Clinton Administration or to most of the Republicans who now control Congress… A July 1994 cable from the U.S. Embassy in Moscow… offers a run-down ho how the Russian armed forces are going high-tech and “shifting upgrade and research.”…
http://jmichaelwaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2002/08/WSJ-Defund-Rus-Mil-Mod-1995.06.02.pdf

END

Well that is all for today. I will see you WEDNESDAY night

Kevin Wallien	7:04 AM (47 minutes ago)
to me

Robert Hryniak	10:41 AM (1 minute ago)
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Robert Hryniak	10:50 AM (11 minutes ago)
to

Robert Hryniak	4:43 PM (7 minutes ago)
to