MARCH 15: THE IDES OF MARCH//GOLD FELL ON THIS 5TH DAY OF CONTINAL RAIDS, DOWN $30.80 TO $1927.45//SILVER FARED A LITTLE BETTER DOWN ONLY 18 CENTS//COMEX GOLD STANDING INCREASED BY A QUEUE JUMP OF 5500 OZ//NEW STANDING 36.040 TONNES (HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH)//SILVER HAD A SMALL QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ: NEW STANDING 52,150,000 OZ//NICKEL FIASCO UPDATE//CHINA’S ECONOMY IMPLODING AS STOCKS ARE BASICALLY UNIVESTIBLE// CHINA LOCKDOWN 51 MILLION CITIZENS//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES AS WELL AS WEST VS EAST: UK SANCTIONS 370 MORE RUSSIANS//RUSSIA CREATES LAW TO MAYBE DEFAULT ON LEASED AIRCRAFTS WITH OWNERS OF WESTERN PERSUASION//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY UPDATE/VACCINE IMPACT/MICHAEL EVERY A MUST READ//OIL ISSUES WITH THE PETRODOLLAR CRACK SHOWING UP WITH SAUDI ARABIA SHUNNING THE USA//USA PPI EXTREMELY HIGH//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

March 15, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

MARCH15

GOLD;  $1927.45 DOWN $30.80

SILVER: $25.16 DOWN $0.18

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1916.50

SILVER: $24.88

Bitcoin morning price:  $38,734 UP 40 

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $39,590 UP 896

Platinum price: closing DOWN $43.50 to $1043.75

Palladium price; closing UP $12.55  at $2436.75

END

end

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comex notices/

March: JPMorgan stopped/total issued  39/75

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,959.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/14/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 03/16/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


104 C MIZUHO 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 3
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 8
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 7
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 7
661 C JP MORGAN 39
690 C ABN AMRO 15
709 C BARCLAYS 8
737 C ADVANTAGE 41 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 10
905 C ADM 3 1


TOTAL: 75 75
MONTH TO DATE: 10,317



NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  Mar. CONTRACT:75 NOTICE(S) FOR 7500 OZ  (0.2332  TONNES)

total notices so far:  10,317 contracts for 1,031,700 oz (32/090 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

302 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  1,510,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  10,367  :  for 51,835,000  oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $30.80

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.18

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

FROM THE SLV. 

CLOSING INVENTORY: 545.022 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED  3112 CONTRACTS TO 160,795 ON DAY 4 OF OUR CONTINUAL RAID,  AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE  $0.64 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.64) AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT SOME SILVER LONGS  AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 2632 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 42.860 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ //NEW STANDING 52.140 MILLION OZ //         V)    HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : —454

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 11 days, total  contracts: :  24,628 contracts or 123.140 million oz  OR 11.190 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (2238 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 24,628 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 123.140 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 123.140 MILLION OZ//THIS IS GOING TO BE A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE MONTH AND MOST LIKELY WILL SET A RECORD FOR ANY MONTH

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3112 WITH OUR  $0.64 LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 480 CONTRACTS( 480 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR. OF 42.860 MILLION OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  ///  .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 2632 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 10.890 MILLION OZ 

 WE HAD 302 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  1,510,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 8950 CONTRACTS  TO 624,775 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: –724  CONTRACTS. 

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $22.75//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST  HAD  HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MARCH AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 5500 OZ//NEW STANDING 36.040 TONNES 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF   $22.75 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD AN SMALL FALL OF 2054  OI CONTRACTS (6.388 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  6896 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 624,775.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2054, WITH 8950 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 6896 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1330 CONTRACTS OR 4.136 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6896) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (8,950,): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2054 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MARCH. AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 5500 OZ//NEW STANDING 36.040 TONNES ///  3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION ///. ,4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OI. LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THE GOLD COMEX IS ALSO BEING ATTACKED FOR GOLD METAL FROM LONDON ET AL.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MARCH

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :

72,884 CONTRACTS OR 7,288,400 OR 226.69  TONNES 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 663 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 226.69TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  226.59/3550 x 100% TONNES  6.39% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  226.59 TONNES INITIAL( THIS WILL PROBABLY BE A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 3112 CONTRACTS TO 160,795  AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 480 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 480  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  480 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 3112 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 480 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 2632 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 13.16 MILLION  OZ, 

OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.64 LOSS IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 159.57 PTS OR 4.95%       //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 1116,59 PTS OR 5.72 %  /The Nikkei closed UP 38,63 PTS or 0.15%       //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.89%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3750    /Oil DOWN TO 103.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 108.14 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3750. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4090: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER//

A)NORTH KOREA/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 8,950 CONTRACTS  AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS OF $22.75 IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A  STRONG SIZED EFP (6896 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE   NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 6896 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,   & FEB. 0 APRIL:6896 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  6896 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED  TOTAL OF 2054 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6896 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 8,950  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS OCCURRED WITH A STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $22.75. 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR   (36.040),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.040 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $22.75) AND  THEY WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING SOME LONGS AS WE HAVE  REGISTERED A SMALL SIZED LOSS  OF 6.388 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (36.040 TONNES)…

WE HAD  –724 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2054 CONTRACTS OR 205400 OZ OR 6.388 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 244,926 ///fair

Confirmed volume yesterday: 189,426contracts  poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAR ’22 COMEX GOLD //MARCH 15

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz23,177.371 oz
Manfra
BRINKS
1 kilobars/Brinks
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil
OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz5,397.868 oz
Brinks
No of oz served (contracts) today75  notice(s
7500 OZ
0.2332 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)1270 contracts 127,000 oz
3.950 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month10,317 notices1,031,700 OZ
32.090 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

For today:

1)dealer deposit 

total dealer deposit 0 oz

No dealer withdrawal 0

1 customer deposits

i) Into Brinks 5,397.868 oz

total deposit: 5,397.868  oz

2 customer withdrawal

i) Out of Manfra  23,145.220 oz 

ii) Out of Brinks: 32.151 oz (1 kilobars)

total withdrawals: 23,177.371     oz  

ADJUSTMENTS:  0/

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH.

For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 1345 contracts having LOST  733

We had 788 notices filed yesterday so strangely again on day 11 we gained another  queue jump i.e. 55 contracts or an additional 5500 oz will  stand for delivery and these guys refused again to be EFP’d over to London. They must

be after large amounts of gold on this side of the pond after Russia cannot//will not supply any precious metals to London. The 5500 oz is represented by 0.1710 tonnes, 

April saw a loss of 15,976 contracts down to 303,567.

May saw a gain of 5 contracts to stand at 4148

June saw a GAIN of 7121 contracts up to 249,301 contracts

We had 788 notice(s) filed today for 78,800  oz FOR THE MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 75 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 39 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 5  notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,317) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAR: 1345 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  75 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,158,700 OZ  OR 36.040 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of mar. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:

No of notices filed so far (10,317) x 100 oz+   (1345)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (75} x 100 oz} which equals 1,1587,00 oz standing OR 36.040 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of MAR.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  36.040 TONNES  (A WHOPPER FOR A MAR (NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

191,133,764.7, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

123,963.792 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.86 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

243,923.704, oz  JPM No 2  7.58 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged  Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware:  0..3810 tonnes

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold:  1,543,044.471 oz                                     47.99 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIG GOLD AT THE COMEX: 33,144,155.164  OZ (1030.92TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,606,658.037 OZ (485.43 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,537,497.127 OZ  (545.e48 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,994,453.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  497.49 tonnes

END

MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//MARCH 15

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory902,317,820  oz
Brinks
CNT
JPM
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil
OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory270,766.075 oz
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)302CONTRACT(S)
1,510,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)63 contracts (315,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)10,367 contracts
51,835,000 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil       oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Delaware: 270,766.075 oz

total deposit:  270,766.075 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 181.71 million oz/343.988 million =52.92% of comex 

ii) Comex withdrawals: 3

a) Out of CNT: 72,487.149 oz

b) Out of Brinks  217,722.080 oz

c) Out of JPMorgan 612,108.600 oz

total withdrawal 902,317.820  oz

we had 1 adjustments//  out of customer to dealer

JPMorgan 1,495,166.118

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 93.589 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 343.988 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MARCH

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MARCH OI:  365, HAVING LOST 133 CONTRACTS FROM MONDAY.

WE HAD 135 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL  STAND

 FOR DELIVERY OVER HERE AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO BE EFP’D TO LONDON. 

APRIL HAD A  44 CONTRACT GAIN// CONTRACTS RISING TO 692

MAY HAD A LOSS OF 3343 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 122,811 contracts

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 302 for 1,510,000 oz

Comex volumes: 48,289// est. volume today//fair/

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 56,633 contracts (FAIR )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  10,367 x 5,000 oz = 51,835,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (365) and the number of notices served upon today 302 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAR./2021 contract month: 10,367 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (365)  – number of notices served upon today (302) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month equates 52,150,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES


MARCH 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $22.75, HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//STRANGE: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.54 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.55: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.28 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.85//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.64 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.34 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $46.10: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 8.42 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.70 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.28 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80//A MONSTER CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.38 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $42.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD UP $17.35//A HUGE  CHANGE AT THE GLD: 5.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD// IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $6.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD UP $29.50: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP 414.60 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.70 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $27.20 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.60 TONNES//

FEB 4/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.59 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.95//A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.78 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.04 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1064.16 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY; STRANGE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.125 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 TONNES

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.174 MILLION OZ OF FAKE SILVER.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 88 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS A 548.071 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.32 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 198,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.510 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ/

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 350,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.017 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.227 MILLION OZ

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.402 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.210 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLIONOZ

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THES LV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV/FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.143 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.218 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.430 MILLION OZ/

FEB 4/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILION OZ

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT539.212 MILLION OZ//

FEB 2/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.411 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 545.022 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff Warns Tucker Carlson: Inflation Only Has One Way To Go!

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 08:11 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Last week, we got another big jump in consumer prices with the February CPI dataPeter Schiff appeared on Fox News with Tucker Carlson to talk about the rampant inflation. He said it’s only going to get worse. Inflation only has one way to go.

Up.

Tucker said Peter should feel vindicated. He’s been right on inflation all along. Peter emphasized that inflation didn’t just happen overnight.

Inflation has been a problem for a while. We just didn’t care about it when it made stocks go up or real estate go up. But now that it’s making food prices go up and energy prices go up and rents go up, it’s a bigger problem.”

Peter also emphasized that inflation isn’t created by COVID, or by Putin, or by “greedy corporations.

There’s one source of inflation. The actual definition of inflation is an expansion of the money supply. And it’s the Federal Reserve that’s been expanding the money supply. They’ve called it quantitative easing, but they keep creating dollars. And it’s the US government that spends those dollars into circulation, and as it does that, the value of each dollar goes down. So, the price of everything that you buy with dollars goes up.”

Peter said the middle-class will feel the impact of the inflation tax the hardest.

Their wages are not going to go up nearly as much as the cost of living. There are other people who are retired, who are on fixed incomes, and those incomes aren’t going to go up at all.”

The CPI for February was 7.9%. That’s being called the worst inflation since 1982. But what they don’t tell you is they measured CPI differently then.

If we use the same CPI today that we used then, we would be over 15% inflation, which means 2021, or 2022, right now, this is the worst inflation in our lifetimes. We’re experiencing higher inflation now than anything in the 1970s. And this decade is just getting started. Inflation’s got only one way to go and that’s up.”

END

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARDS/

PAM AND RUSS MARTENS:

-END-

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: 

-END-

3.  Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

a must view…

 

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/

end

NICKEL UPDATE

With Chinese Commodity Tycoon Bailed Out, LME Announces Nickel Market To Reopen

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 05:20 PM

With the Nickel market shuttered after a Chinese stainless steel tycoon was caught with a historic, potentially fatal $8 billion margin call hanging over its head, today the London Metal Exchange announced that it will reopen its nickel market on Wednesday, more than a week after it was closed last Monday, after the Chinese company at the center of the epic short squeeze was bailed out by a consortium of banks led by JPMorgan which is also the largest counterparty to the short (for a detailed breakdown read “The 18 Minutes of Trading Chaos That Broke the Nickel Market“) .

Trading in nickel will resume after Xiang Guangda, whose massive short position equivalent to approximately 150,000 tons of nickel, sent shockwaves across the commodity market last week, announced a standstill with his banks to avoid further margin calls as Bloomberg first reported earlier. Xiang’s Tsingshan Group had been in discussions with banks led by JPMorgan about a loan facility to backstop his short position and said Monday that talks on the funding would continue during the standstill period. As a reminder, Xiang is JPMorgan’s largest counterparty, and owes Jamie Dimon several billion, money which the largest US bank would not receive unless it bailed out the Chinese firm.

Here is the statement from the LME:

This Notice: (i) confirms that trading in LME Nickel Contracts will resume at 08:00 London time on Wednesday 16 March 2022 (“Resumption Date”) on all LME Execution Venues; (ii) sets out details of the application of daily upper and lower price limits to all outright Contracts in all Base Metals on all Execution Venues; (iii) sets out details of the deferral of delivery to Wednesday 23 March at level for all Nickel Contracts entered into prior to Wednesday 16 March and due for delivery between Wednesday 16 and Tuesday 22 March inclusive; (iv) details the Accountability Levels that shall apply to Nickel Contracts with effect from the Resumption Date and outlines information gathering measures that shall apply to Members in relation to aggregate on-exchange and OTC Nickel positions; and (v) provides additional guidance on the LME’s approach to the determination and publication of Official Prices and Closing Prices during any period

The discredited, Hong Kong-owned London Metals Exchange also announced that it would impose 15% limit on daily price moves across all metals – which will come in useful on Wednesday when nickel either explodes higher yet again in hopes of further squeezing Tsingshan, or crashes.

The exchange also said that it would require traders’ nickel positions to be reported going forward, something it should have thought of long ago.London Metals Exchange pit. Only Billy Ray and Lewis are missing.

Last week the LME attempted a bizarre process to try to close out short positions by matching market participants with long and short positions before the market reopened, but received little interest especially after Xiang told the banks and brokers last week that he would like to keep his short position, sparking fears that the short squeeze could continue as a GME scenario could emerge as specs sought to push the price even higher.

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING TODAY

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.3780

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.4090

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 1116.58 PTS OR 5.72%

2. Nikkei closed UP 38.63 PTS 0.15%

3. Europe stocks  ALL RED 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  98.81/Euro RISES TO 1.0983-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.211/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 118.05/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 94.86 and Brent: 97.78–

3f Gold  DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN//  OFF- SHORE  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.0.352%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 1.95% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 1.34%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.60: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.66

3k Gold at $1966.20 silver at: 25.30   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 11.00/100 in roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 110.62

3m oil into the 94 dollar handle for WTI and 97 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 118.05 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9389– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0317 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.126 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.471 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.79

US Futures Ignore China Implosion, Reverse Overnight Losses as Oil Tumbles

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 07:53 AM

Welcome to another rollercoaster session where US equity futures first tumbled alongside the second consecutive day of stocks plunging in China, which also dragged Europe lower, only to hit a U-turn around 5am at which point sentiment reversed higher, ahead of tomorrow’s expected Federal Reserve rate hike and amid mounting risks from the war in Ukraine and a Chinese equity rout. Nasdaq 100 contracts trade 0.5% higher at 7:15 a.m. after earlier slumping as much as 0.8% following the first bear-market close for the first time since March 2020. S&P 500 futures also turned 0.3% green, as did Dow futures.

Much of the reversal in sentiment has been attributed to the latest drop in oil which tumbled over $8/bbl or 5.5%, sliding as low as $98 after hitting $139 one week ago. WTI crude oil also fell below $100 a barrel a barrel as traders reassessed the potential impact of disruptions in Russian oil supplies and a decline in demand from China. Iron ore futures fell for a sixth day, the longest streak since September. In other words, commodities are not sliding because of hopes for Russia peace, but because of fears about a global recession, but try explaining it all to algos. Treasuries gained, though the 10-year yield remains near the highest level since 2019. Yields across the euro region also declined. The dollar slipped, while the euro pushed higher and bitcoin dropped again.

Earlier in the session, a selloff across Chinese equities deepened as concerns about ties with Russia, a growing covid crisis, and persistent regulatory pressure sent a key index to its lowest level since 2008. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong, sank 6.6%, following a plunge in the previous session that was the biggest since the global financial crisis.

The Hang Seng index tumbled Tech giants Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. led the decline. Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index slumped 5.7%, its biggest fall since July 2015.

China’s equities are looking increasingly risky on concerns that Beijing’s ties with Russia could spark new U.S. sanctions. That’s adding to worries from regulatory developments including a possible delisting from the U.S. exchanges. While upbeat economic data was a rare bright spot in the market, growing lockdowns in major Chinese cities are dimming the outlook.

“The selloff is overdone, but so is everything else,” said Andy Maynard, head of equities at China Renaissance Securities. “The market is crazy — there’s no fundamentals anymore. This might be worse than the 2008 financial crisis.”

“Risk-off sentiment stemming from both the Russia-Ukraine war and the current wave of Covid-19 in China has driven equity markets sharply weaker this morning,” Siobhan Redford, an analyst at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg, said in a client note.  “This has been compounded by falling commodity prices as the intersection between limited supply — given sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine — and a weaker demand trajectory — given further waves of the pandemic — create a perfect storm of sorts.”

With zero liquidity, and trigger happy traders looking to sell any rally, swings in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures signaled another volatile day ahead for U.S. stocks. U.S.-listed Chinese stocks sank again on Tuesday, following a brutal rout in Asia, amid concerns that China’s ties with Russia may bring sanctions to Beijing, while persistent regulatory pressures also weighed. Alibaba (BABA US) fell 6.5% in premarket trading, while rival JD.com (JD US) declined 4.5%. Apple Inc. inched lower, heading toward a bear market — defined as a 20% drop from recent highs — on worries that lockdowns in China to contain a surge in Covid-19 cases could worsen supply-chain constraints. Other notable premarket movers:

  • Shares in big U.S. energy companies slide in premarket trading as crude price fall, declining after last week’s rally as worries over growing coronavirus cases in top crude importer China weigh. Exxon Mobil (XOM US) -3.1% and Chevron (CVX US) -3.7%.
  • Coupa Software (COUP US) slides 30% in postmarket trading after the company’s revenue forecast for the first quarter misses the average analyst estimate.
  • Gitlab (GTLB US) shares rose 12% in extended trading on Monday, after the software company reported fourth-quarter revenue that beat expectations and gave a full-year forecast that is stronger than the analyst consensus.

U.S. technology stocks have been particularly hard hit in the past week with the Federal Reserve expected to begin a rate-hike cycle on Wednesday, another negative for growth stocks valued on future profits. Investors are also looking for cues from the central bank about how aggressively it plans to continue tightening monetary policy as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent commodity prices soaring when inflation was already running high. A reading on the producer price index is due on Tuesday.

“If we are entering a world of above-target inflation for several years to come, investors should ditch the easy answers,” said Sahil Mahtani, strategist at Ninety One. “Conventional 60-40 type portfolios are likely to struggle. Investors should reflect about what specifically is driving the inflationary process and invest in equities that have pricing power but are not at frothy valuations.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell more than 1.5%, with basic resources, consumer and technology stocks leading a broad-based decline.  All sectors are in the red. Euro Stoxx 50 slumps 2.4%. IBEX outperforms peers but still trades off ~1.5%. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Ahold Delhaize shares gain as much as 3.2%, the best performer in the Stoxx 600’s personal care, drug and grocery stores subgroup, after being upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS, which says the stock is at an “attractive entry point.”
  • S&T rallied in Frankfurt, climbing as much as 18%, after the Austrian company said a forensic audit by Deloitte found allegations by short seller Viceroy Research were almost completely inaccurate.
  • Sensirion shares spike as much as 13%, the most since June 2020, after the Swiss sensor manufacturer reported full- year sales and gave a revenue forecast that blew past analysts’ estimates. Stifel says the company’s growth is driven by all end markets and the performance of new environmental sensors looks “impressive.”
  • Wacker Chemie shares gain as much as 6.9%, as Baader sees dividend proposal 56% above and midpoint ‘22 Ebitda guidance 3% ahead of consensus.
  • Tecan falls as much as 16% after reporting sales for the full year that missed the average analyst estimate, and as the outlook disappointed.
  • Dr. Martens shares tumble as much as 11% to the lowest since listing in January 2021 after RBC cut its price target to a Street-low, citing the bootmaker’s growth outlook.
  • Swedish Match drops as much as 8.4%, the most intraday since February 2021, after the company suspended the spinoff of its U.S. cigar business. The move highlights regulatory risk, according to JPMorgan.

Meanwhile, Russia has started the payment process of two bond coupons due this week. Investors are waiting to see if the nation defaults after the U.S. and its allies froze Russia’s foreign-currency reserves. The ruble gained in Moscow trading.

Asian stocks plunged, on track for a third-straight daily loss, as the selloff in Chinese technology stocks continued after Monday’s plunge, while traders tried to gauge the impact of an imminent interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.9%, heading for its lowest close since August 2020. Tencent and Alibaba Group were among the biggest drags on the regional index, along with TSMC. The sustained selling pressure came as investors mulled the potential consequences of China’s assistance for Russia’s war in Ukraine and delisting risk for Chinese stocks traded in the U.S. Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index tumbled 5.7%, its biggest fall since July 2015, while the Hang Seng Tech Index lost 8.1% following a wild intraday swing. Read: Relentless Selling in China Stocks Evokes Memories of 2008 Crash China’s CSI 300 Index slumped 4.6% as the nation’s strong set of economic data failed to lift sentiment amid market jitters on the rising case numbers of Covid-19. Japanese stocks rose for a second day as a weaker yen boosted the outlook for the nation’s exporters. “There are plenty of storms blowing through China right now,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific. “Fears continue to dog stock markets, that lockdowns could spread, which would severely impact China’s growth.” The risk of tighter monetary policies globally remained on investors’ minds as the Fed this week is expected to announce its first interest rate hike in three years in a bid to curb rising inflation amid surging commodity prices. Markets are now pricing in as many as seven quarter-point hikes for the full year.

Lockdowns in major Chinese cities are dimming the outlook for economic growth and posing risks for energy and raw-materials demand, just as concerns about the country’s relationship with Russia stoke a relentless stock selloff.  The virus is also making a comeback in Europe: Germany on Tuesday set a fresh record for infection rates for the four straight day. Austria has also reached new highs, while cases in the Netherlands have doubled since lifting curbs on Feb. 25.

Japanese equities rose, extending their rebound to a second day, supported by gains in exporters on a weaker yen. Auto and chemical makers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which climbed 0.8%. KDDI and Recruit were the biggest contributors to a 0.2% rise in the Nikkei 225, while Fast Retailing fell. The Japanese currency extended its loss against the dollar to a seventh-straight session, weakening more than 3% in that span. Despite its “haven” status,” the yen has dropped as Russia’s war in Ukraine has driven up prices of oil and other raw materials which Japan imports. “The market has already factored in a lot of bad news” regarding Russia and Ukraine, said Hajime Sakai, chief fund manager at Mito Securities. “The weakening of the yen is positive for exporting, but looking further on we need to think of the negative effect from import costs.”

In rates, Treasuries unwound a portion of Monday’s sharp selloff with yields richer by up to 4.5bp across front-end of the curve into early U.S. session. U.S. 10-year yield near 2.12% is down ~2bp vs Monday’s close, outperforming bunds and gilts in the sector by ~1bp; 2-year yield drop back to ~1.83% after topping near 1.89% during Asia session. Gilts and bund curves bull-flatten while Treasuries bull-steepen; short-dated USTs outperform bunds and gilts by roughly 2bps.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% after rising to its highest level since July 2020 in early Asian trade. Treasury yields fell by up to 4bps led by the front-end after rising in early Asian session, when the 10-year yield climbed to 2.17%, the highest since June 2019. Antipodean currencies as well as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone were steady to lower as commodities extended losses. The euro extended an Asia session gain, to touch $1.1020 before paring. European benchmark bond yields also fell, yet underperforming Treasuries. Sweden’s krona advanced after inflation expectations rose considerably for the coming two years. Australia’s dollar pares reased an intraday loss, in part on short covering seen after Chinese economic data beat estimates. Reserve Bank said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has the potential to prolong a period of elevated consumer-price growth and is clouding the economic outlook, minutes of its March 1 policy meeting showed. The yen whipsawed in the spot market as stocks and oil turned south, but options wagers suggest fresh lows versus the dollar may be in store. Whether the greenback can extend its recent rally and maintain its bullish momentum for long depends on options pricing changing course.

In commodities, crude futures decline. WTI drifts 5.3% lower to trade around $97.50. Brent falls 5.3% but holds above $101. Most base metals trade in the red; LME aluminum falls 2.3%, underperforming peers. LME tin outperforms, adding 0.4%. Spot gold falls roughly $17 to trade near $1,934/oz. Elsewhere, nickel trading will resume on the London Metal Exchange on Wednesday, over a week after being suspended amid a historic short squeeze.

Looking to the day ahead now, markets have PPI for February in the US. In Europe, Germany’s ZEW survey expectations, UK jobless claims change, ILO unemployment rate 3 months, Eurozone ZEW survey expectations and industrial production are all due. Elsewhere, housing starts and manufacturing sales in Canada will be released. Earnings include Volkswagen, RWE and Generali.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 4,154.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.7% to 429.03
  • MXAP down 1.7% to 165.53
  • MXAPJ down 2.9% to 531.41
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 25,346.48
  • Topix up 0.8% to 1,826.63
  • Hang Seng Index down 5.7% to 18,415.08
  • Shanghai Composite down 5.0% to 3,063.97
  • Sensex down 1.4% to 55,702.16
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 7,097.45
  • Kospi down 0.9% to 2,621.53
  • Brent Futures down 5.7% to $100.79/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.9% to $1,934.19
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.21% to 98.79
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.33%
  • Euro up 0.5% to $1.0995

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Germany is preparing to boost the supply of a scarce bond entangled in Russian sanctions, a move that will likely ease pockets of tension in European repo markets. The nation is looking to sell on Tuesday an additional 5.5 billion euros ($6.1 billion) of the notes maturing 2024, which the German government believed became difficult to source after sanctions were imposed against some bondholders
  • Chinese stocks suffered another deep selloff on Tuesday as concerns about the country’s ties with Russia and persistent regulatory pressure sent shares on a downward spiral. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong, sank 6.6%, following a plunge in the previous session that was the biggest since the global financial crisis
  • Fund managers are leery of buying Chinese stocks as the country’s close ties to Russia, extreme Covid-19 curbs and lack of clarity on the end of regulatory crackdowns overwhelm the dip buying opportunity presented by the 75% plunge from their peak
  • China wants to avoid being impacted by U.S. sanctions over Russia’s war, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, in one of Beijing’s most explicit statements yet on American penalties that are contributing to a historic market selloff
  • The global economy is bracing for greater disruption as China scrambles to contain its worst outbreak of Covid-19 since the pandemic began
  • Russia’s economy is fraying, its currency has collapsed, and its debt is junk. Next up is a potential default that could cost investors billions and shut the country out of most funding markets
  • The dollar has powered ahead of every major currency over the past nine months due to the prospect of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes but the end of its rally may be in sight, if history is any guide. The U.S. currency has weakened by an average of 4.1% during the Federal Open Market Committee’s four previous tightening cycles
  • Traders are ramping up their bets on the amount of Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2022 but are still toying with the possibility of a rate cut as soon as next year
  • U.K. unemployment dropped below its pre- pandemic level for the first time as companies generated more jobs and granted higher wages than expected. The jobless rate fell to 3.9% in the three months through January, the lowest since the start of 2020

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Feb. PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 10.0%, prior 9.7%; MoM, est. 0.9%, prior 1.0%
  • 8:30am: Feb. PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 8.7%, prior 8.3%; MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.8%
  • 8:30am: March Empire Manufacturing, est. 6.1, prior 3.1
  • 4pm: Jan. Total Net TIC Flows, prior -$52.4b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Some hints of positive diplomatic developments in the Ukraine crisis that materialised on Sunday night helped contribute to another major sell-off in bonds and a mild risk on move in European equities yesterday. While in the States, the reality of the impending Fed tightening cycle pushed yields higher and drove equities lower.

Bonds are in a strange situation at the moment as we seem to have reached a point where higher energy prices are deemed to be signalling recessionary risks and encourage flight to quality flows that push nominal yields lower, outweighing the potentially savage inflationary impact. Conversely, the collapse in the likes of oil and gas since early last week has led to a huge rise in yields as it appears policy tightening is back on the central bank menu. Brent is around -25% from its intra-day highs last Tuesday and 10yr bunds are +46.6bps higher since hitting -0.10% last Monday morning. Meanwhile, 1-month futures on Dutch Gas have fallen from a high of 335 last Monday morning to 110.50 at the close last night. Remarkable moves.

On the conflict, Russia and Ukraine finished a fourth day of negotiations yesterday and decided to take a pause to assess outcomes. Still, it seems that negotiations are making some progress. Meanwhile, President Zelensky is set to address the US Congress tomorrow, while there were reports that President Biden was considering a trip to Europe to express the US’s steadfast support for NATO allies.

Overnight in Asia, most equity markets are down with Hong Kong and Chinese stocks leading regional losses. The Hang Seng (-3.56%) opened sharply lower, slipping more than 4% before recovering slightly as a resurgence of Covid-19 in Hong Kong and China and potential delisting of Chinese stocks from US exchanges weighed on sentiment. The Shanghai Composite (-2.18%) and CSI (-1.75%) are also down even if losses were pared following the release of stronger-than-anticipated economic data. A fresh lockdown in China’s Jilin province of 24 million people is offsetting this. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.33%) is advancing while the Kospi (-0.56%) is lagging. Moving forward, equity futures on the S&P 500 (+0.17%) and Nasdaq (+0.47%) are higher while DAX contracts (-0.45%) are weak.

On that China data, industrial output rose a more-than-expected +7.5% y/y in January and February, (vs market estimates of +4.0%) and against a +9.6% gain in December while retail sales grew +6.7% y/y in the same period compared with analyst estimates of a +3.0% increase amid rising demand during the Lunar New Year holidays and the Winter Olympic Games. Meanwhile, fixed asset investment also beat, up by +12.2% y/y YTD in February and well above the forecast for a +5.0% increase. Separately, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) unexpectedly kept the one-year medium-term lending facility rate (MLF) at 2.85%, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan in fresh funds. The central banks’ action dashed hopes of a rate cut as the policymakers may want to avoid widening policy divergence with the US ahead of their expected hike tomorrow.

Oil prices have extended their recent declines this morning with Brent futures sliding -4.0% to trade at $102.64/bbl and with WTI futures -4.2%, breaking below $100/bbl. It saw a similar fall yesterday after opening the week above $109/bbl. Elsewhere, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note is roughly flat at 2.138%.

As discussed at the top, the calm in yields overnight followed a rout yesterday. 10yr bunds eventually rose +11.9bps yesterday as risk premium eased, and to the highest level since November 2018. With a modest +2.2bps uptick in breakevens, most of the move was in real yields. Note that page 24 of the “Dislocations” chart book shows that 10yr real bund yields last week hit all-time low levels. Since those lows last week we’ve backed up +48.8bps. The move in other European sovereign yields was remarkably similar to bunds yesterday with BTPs (+11.3bps), Spanish (+11.0bps) and even Greek (+11.8bps) bonds seeing hardly any change in spreads.

US Treasury yields sold even more (10yr +14.1bps) and unlike in Europe, higher yields were met with falling breakevens (-2.3bps) with real yields +16.4bps putting in their biggest daily move since February 2021. No small feat given the considerable sell-off in real rates that marked the beginning of this year. The 2s10s (+2.8bps) curve steepened a little which might be welcomed by the Fed. Yields across the US curve notched fresh cycle highs, with those on 2y (+11.3bps) and 10y reaching the highest levels since summer 2019.

Notably, US futures moved to fully price in 7 Fed hikes in 2022 for the first time this cycle, in line with our US econ team’s view. While there were reports of incoming corporate issuance and hedging flows driving the Treasury rate sell-off, it appears markets are waking up to the magnitude of tightening the Fed is about to embark on, starting this week. If the war wasn’t enough to get the ECB to strike a dovish tone, the Fed will be all the more emboldened given fewer direct linkages to growth shocks from the conflict and the higher starting point for inflation. Indeed, in a new periodical we launched yesterday, Questions for the Chair, link here, DB Research personnel offer the questions they would ask Chair Powell at his FOMC press conference. A common question was wouldn’t policy rates need to be higher than current forecasts given the inflationary outlook. It seems markets are coming around to that view.

That line of thinking passed through to US equities, where the S&P 500 slid -0.74%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ, which is more exposed to rising rates, underperformed, falling -2.04%. Sector-wise, amid plummeting oil prices energy stocks (-2.93%) performed the worst after a sustained run of outperformance, while financials (+1.23%) were the top performers in the S&P 500 amid a steeper yield curve.

European stocks outperformed their American counterparts, with the positive geopolitical noise outweighing a tighter monetary policy path to push major indices into positive territory. The STOXX 600 rallied +1.20%, but gains in country-level benchmarks like the German DAX (+2.21%) and the French CAC 40 (+1.75%) were even more startling amid recent sharp underperformance relative to their US counterparts.

The same positive risk sentiment pushed commodity prices lower. We’ve already mentioned the slump in Oil but European gas prices also fell, with front month Dutch TTF contracts losing -17.29%. Oil prices fell despite no additional supply via Iran, US, Venezuela, or OPEC appearing likely. Instead, it seems as though Russian supply may make its way to buyers such as China and India with fewer frictions than were previously feared. As a secondary consideration, reports of Covid-19 lockdowns in China may have pushed prices lower due to potential lower demand needs.

Industrial metals lost steam as well, with aluminium and copper falling -4.69% and -2.24%, respectively, while gold lost -1.89% as markets revised geopolitical risks downwards.

One developing story with unclear implications so far is Russia’s request for Chinese support of its invasion. There have been conflicting reports about the veracity of the original claims. We do know that the US National Security Advisor met with his Chinese counterpart yesterday to try and dissuade China from offering any such support. One to keep a very close eye on.

To the day ahead now. In today’s data releases, markets have PPI for February in the US. In Europe, Germany’s ZEW survey expectations, UK jobless claims change, ILO unemployment rate 3 months, Eurozone ZEW survey expectations and industrial production are all due. Elsewhere, housing starts and manufacturing sales in Canada will be released. Earnings include Volkswagen, RWE and Generali.

END

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 159.57 PTS OR 4.95%       //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 1116,59 PTS OR 5.72 %  /The Nikkei closed UP 38,63 PTS or 0.15%       //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.89%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3750    /Oil DOWN TO 103.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 108.14 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3750. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4090: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER//

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA/COVID

Another 51 million citizens in China lockdown as numbers of COVID cases increase, with the entire north east province of Jilin hit along with Shenzhen.

China Orders 51 Million Into Lockdown As COVID Numbers Spike

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 08:40 PM

Beijing is learning the hard way that its “COVID Zero” approach toward combating the virus is having serious drawbacks. For example, while the US and Europe continue to roll back their tightening measures, a growing number of Chinese citizens are facing draconian lockdowns similar to the one imposed on Wuhan during the early days of the outbreak two years ago.

According to ABC Newsthe total number of Chinese citizens under lockdown rose to 51 million on Monday. Beijing has ordered a lockdown covering the entire northeastern province of Jilin, where 24 million people live. What’s more, the southern cities of Shenzhen and Dongguan, with 17.5 million and 10 million, respectively, have both been locked down in recent days.

China reported 1,437 cases across dozens of cities on Monday. That’s a four-fold increase within the span of a week.

Although the record number of new cases being reported is testing the feasibility of China’s zero-tolerance approach, there is still no sign that the country’s leadership is thinking about abandoning the policy altogether.

Authorities announced on Monday that 24 million people in Jilin Province would be forced into lockdown. That number includes the population of the previously locked down city of Changchun. Jilin’s lockdown marks the first province-wide lockdown since that of Wuhan and Hubei in January 2020.

The lockdown in Shenzhen threatens manufacturing and tech production in a city that’s home to Huawei and Tencent, along with one of the country’s main ports. As we noted earlier, the lockdown in Shenzhen has forced Apple supplier Foxconn to halt production of iPhones, which weighed on Apple shares earlier Monday.

While the lockdowns were initially given a short-term timeline of a week, authorities can always choose to extend them.

In keeping with the CCP’s propaganda, Professor Heiwai Tang at Hong Kong University told ABC News that he doesn’t expect these week-long lockdowns to have a significant impact on GDP growth.

“It seems the lockdowns will be shorter this time with more tracking, which means a short disruption of work and production,” Tang said. “If it ends up lasting for weeks it’s another issue, including inflation risks.”

Looking back, Professor Michael Song from Hong Kong’s Chinese University estimated that the two-month lockdown in Wuhan lopped 2 percentage points off China’s GDP growth.

Shanghai-based virologist Zhang Wenhong described the latest outbreak as “the most difficult moment in the past two years” of China’s efforts to stamp out the virus. Shanghai, China’s financial capital, has so far avoided a full-scale lockdown, but has faced some restrictions.

Many believe the most recent outbreak in mainland China likely traveled across the border from Hong Kong, which has seen case numbers soar over the past few weeks, prompting authorities to impose lockdowns and construct  thousands of makeshift quarantine beds.

Mandatory quarantines and other strict anti-COVID measures have already taken their toll on the mental health of Chinese citizens: police reported 3 suicide attempts at one quarantine “camp” during the past day as of mid-morning on Monday in the Eastern US.

end

CHINA/

China’s stock market plummeted by 159.57 pts last night.  The PBOC tried to give phony numbers hoping to convince people that their economy is good.

It did not work

(zerohedge)

Just As All Hope Seemed Lost, China Reports Miraculously Good Economic Data

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 10:40 PM

Going into Tuesday, all hope seemed lost in China.

First, China reported a whopping 5,154 new covid cases (3,507 new local confirmed Covid cases and 1,647 asymptomatic cases) for Monday, well more than double from the day before, and confirming that the country’s covid troubles – which over the past 48 hours led to the lockdown of Shenzhen and other cities – are only getting worse. So worse, in fact, that questions have emerged: how did China not report more than 100 cases on any one day for two years, and then now – with the Ukraine war raging – Beijing is suddenly locking down key US supply chain arteries.

Second, for the second day in a row, the PBOC fixed the yuan more than 100 pips weaker than expected, as the central bank telegraphs it will no longer tolerate a weak currency, relentless capital inflows be damned, as the country remembers that it is after all, an export-driven mercantilist which above all, needs a favorable exchange rate.

Third, one day after Chinese stocks traded in HK suffered their biggest drop since 2008, we are bracing for another major crash:

  • ALIBABA SHARES INDICATED 9.8% LOWER IN HONG KONG
  • MEITUAN SHARES INDICATED 11% LOWER IN HONG KONG

Elsewhere, China’s CSI 300 Index tuimbled 2.5%, while the Shanghai Composite declined 2.4% and the Hang Seng fell 3.7%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index lost as much as 7.2% soon after open Tuesday, and is now down almost 40% in under a month.

Why? Because contrary to expectations set by the PBOC itself (via its own media mouthpiece), the PBOC decided to keep the MLF rate unchanged despite an intensifying rout in nation’s equities, adding to investor concerns from lockdowns to geopolitical and regulatory risks.

And then, as even the firmest China believers were getting ready to throw in the towel, moments ago the National Bureau of Statistics reported a trio February economic numbers that were so ridiculously good they were, well… simply ridiculous. To wit:

  • Jan.-Feb. Industrial Output +7.5%, y/y, smashing estimates of +4%, printing above the highest economist forecast (range +3.2% to +5.5%, 24 economists) and far higher than the Ded +4.3%.
  • Jan.-Feb. Retail Sales +6.7% y/y; smashing est. +3%, printing above the highest economist forecast (range +1.5% to +5.5%, 23 economists), and far, far higher than the Dec. +1.7%
  • Jan.-Feb. Fixed-Asset Investment excluding rural households +12.2% y/y; smashing est. +5% and also printing above the highest economist forecast (range +3% to +9%, 29 economists) as well as more than 2x higher than Jan.-Dec. +4.9%

While the above data was the most closely watched, not all the data was flawless:

  • Jan.-Feb. property investment +3.7% y/y vs +4.4% in Jan.-Dec.
  • Jan.-Feb. residential property sales -22.1% y/y vs +5.3% in Jan.-Dec.
  • End- Feb. surveyed jobless rate 5.5% vs 5.1% end-Dec.

Then there were the tertiary data:

  • China Jan.-Feb. Power Output Rose 4% Y/y to 1314.1b kwh
  • China Feb. Power consumption rises 16.9% Y/Y, to 623.5 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), the state TV  reports, citing the National Energy Administration.
  • Power output in Jan.-Feb. rose 4% y/y to 1314.1b kwh
  • Crude processing in Jan.-Feb. fell 1.1% y/y to 113.01m tons
  • Crude oil output in Jan.-Feb. rose 4.6% y/y to 33.47m tons
  • Natural gas output in Jan.-Feb. rose 6.7% y/y to 37.2bcm
  • Ethylene output in Jan.-Feb. rose 3.9% y/y to 4.87m tons
  • Coal output in Jan.-Feb. rose 10.3% y/y to 686.6m tons

China’s apparent oil demand, which includes oil processing volume and net imports of refined oil products, remained stable in the first two months of the year, despite higher prices: China’s apparent oil demand rose 2.89% in January-February from a year earlier, to 13.710m b/d.

A closer read of the data hints that not all was as strong as indicated: the growth in retail sales was driven by a surge in petroleum and jewelry which saw the highest increase across all categories. That, as Bloomberg notes, could be the impact of price increase, instead of volume.

Still, the fact that the big 3 were so stellar should placate those who are seeing a collapse (even if nobody actually believes these numbers).

So why did Beijing report such ridiculous prints? Well, one possible reason is to justify the PBOC’s decision earlier in the session to hold the key, MLF interest rate unchanged instead of cutting it as analysts expected.

Either that, or to justify what would be a powerful Plunge Protection intervention immediately after the data, and sure enough:

  • *HANG SENG TECH INDEX ERASES LOSS OF AS MUCH AS 7.2%
  • *TENCENT PARES LOSS TO 0.5% FROM AS MUCH AS 8%

And as goes China, so go US equity futures…

end

China is uninvestable!

(zerohedge)

“The Market Is Crazy” – Despite ‘Miraculous’ Macro Data, Chinese Stocks Remain “Uninvestable”

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 11:45 AM

Despite what some described as a “miraculousy timed” good economic data last night, the selling in Chinese stocks continues unabated as anxiety over a resurgent COVID, blowback concerns over Russia-ties, domestic regulatory fears, and recently weak credit data all piled up to drag the market to its lowest relative valuation versus the world on record…

Source: Bloomberg

“When faith is gone, people are ready to see a dark shadow in everything, some are even suspicious of the solid economic figures today,” said Yu Yingbo, an investment director at Shenzhen Qianhai United Fortune Fund Management Co Ltd.

“It’s just a planned, persistent and synchronized selling.”

The collapse, as we detailed earlier, has been heavily focused on the tech sector with the Hang Seng Tech Index crashing 8.1% (extending declines from a February 2021 peak to nearly 70%) amid what Bloomberg describes as its greatest intraday swing in history

Source: Bloomberg

But what feels capitulative may just be getting going as Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda Asia Pacific, warns “there are plenty of storms blowing through China right now,” adding that “fears continue to dog stock markets, that lockdowns could spread, which would severely impact China’s growth.”

“The selloff is overdone, but so is everything else,” said Andy Maynard, head of equities at China Renaissance Securities.

“The market is crazy — there’s no fundamentals anymore. This might be worse than the 2008 financial crisis.”

JPMorgan analysts have even labeled some Chinese internet names as “uninvestable”.

“We are underweight Chinese equities due to several factors,” said Cesar Perez Ruiz, chief investment officer of Pictet Wealth Management, citing the nation’s zero-Covid policy that’s affecting growth as one of the reasons.

“The tech sector will continue to suffer from regulation challenges plus the risk of U.S. delisting and penalization of growth stocks as rates continue to normalize.”

And of course, for the world’s investors – now conditioned to expect every dip to be rescued by a Fed Put (and dissonant that The Fed is now selling calls) – hope is rapidly becoming a four-letter word as the market is now anticipating an inflation-fighting Fed will hike 7 times in 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

…and the crushing collapse in credibility of any Fed reversal from its hawkish positioning now would likely (after an initial breathless recovery) lead to far worse outcomes.

And the PBOC’s recent actions (holding rates rather than cutting as expected) disappointed a demanding investor base expecting to be bailed out.

end

CHINA//USA//RUSSIA/UKRAINE

China angry at the uSA over “smears” on Russian assistance. They are stating that they are not a party to this war.

(zerohedge)

China Warns Of Retaliation Amid US “Smears” Over Russian Assistance, Says “Not A Party” To This War

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 07:25 AM

The Chinese Foreign Ministry warned on Tuesday that China would retaliate following a series of US statements which told Beijing not to assist Russia in either sanctions evasion or military equipment support for its Ukraine war. 

“We call on the US not to harm China’s legitimate rights and interests when handling its relations with Russia,” ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian stressed – however at this point it’s still at the level of US warnings and accusations, also after reports said that Moscow has even requested drones. 

Zhao in a daily briefing was asked if China fears US sanctions amid charges that it’s quietly supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine: “The Chinese side has repeatedly expressed its position regarding sanctions. Beijing discourages the use of sanctions to settle problems and even more opposes unilateral sanctions that lack international legal grounds,” Zhao said.TASS/Getty Images

And separately Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi China in a phone call to his Spanish counterpart stressed that “China is not a party to the crisis, nor does it want sanctions to affect China.” Wang said in the Monday statements discussing the Ukraine crisis.. “China has the right to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”

Calling the Ukraine war part of “European security conflicts” which have built up over the years, the top diplomat said China stands for negotiations and dialogue and rejects sanctions. He said in what can be seen as a likely indirect defense of Moscow:

China always opposes the use of sanctions to solve problems, and even more opposes unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law, which will undermine international rules and bring harm to the people’s livelihood of all countries.

“Some forces have kept smearing China on the Ukraine issue… and fabricated all sorts of disinformation,” he said additionally, in a direct lashing out at Washington and some media reports in the West. Wang said this is especially because China is “not a party” to this war.

Following a reported 8-hours worth of talks in Rome with national security adviser Jake Sullivan – after which a senior admin official was cited as saying “We do have deep concerns about China’s alignment with Russia at this time” – top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi in an official readout summarizing the meeting said the US side was informed that the Ukraine war “is not what China wants to see” and that Beijing is “committed to promoting peace talks, and the international community should jointly support the Russia-Ukraine peace talks to achieve substantive results as soon as possible.”

And more from the statement:

“All parties should exercise maximum restraint and protect civilians,” Yang added, according to the readout. He also implicitly called for an understanding of Russia’s position and echoed an argument about supporting “the principle of indivisible security,” which the Kremlin has used to justify its brutal invasion of Ukraine. “The history and development of the Ukraine issue should be straightened out … The legitimate concerns of all parties should be responded to,” Yang said.

The US has warned European allies that Russia asked China for surface-to-air missiles, drones, armored vehicles, logistics vehicles, and intelligence-related equipment – and that China responded positively. Bloomberg notes that the request has alarmed Biden administration officials who are seeking to prevent China from coming to Vladimir Putin’s aid in the war, which could potentially escalate it into a truly World War.

Beijing has responded by saying it’s never heard of such requests from Russia, and has rejected the allegations of cooperation on supplying military equipment for the Ukraine invasion. 

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFFAIRS

//GERMANY/UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Germany is nervous: they are buying dozens of USA F 35’s to replace their bombers.

(zerohedge) 

Germany To Buy Dozens Of US F-35s To Replace Bombers, Citing Putin’s War In Ukraine

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 02:45 AM

The Russian war in Ukraine has very belatedly sent one lead NATO country into a defense spending spree. Before the Feb.24 invasion, Germany wouldn’t so much as let its weapons be transferred to Kiev via allies – wanting to present a sense of neutrality with Moscow – but now with all prior reluctance apparently abandoned, Berlin is poised to rapidly beef up its advanced fighter jet capability: “Germany plans to buy up to 35 US-made F-35 fighter jets and 15 Eurofighter jets, a parliamentary source said Monday, as part of a major push to modernize the armed forces in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Bloomberg reports Monday.

The Lockheed-produced jets look to be acquired in the “dozens” – taking up a big chunk of Germany’s proposed defense budget which will be north of 50 billion euros this year, acknowledged as a “record high”. This as Germany has agreed to boost defense spending above 2% of gross domestic product – something which NATO had previously been frequently lectured on by Trump. Image source: Lockheed Martin

In making the announcement, Berlin officials specifically cited the need for the necessary level of deterrence against Russia and Vladimir Putin. AFP recalls, “In a landmark speech late last month, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged to invest an extra 100 billion euros ($112 billion) in the nation’s chronically underfunded Bundeswehr armed forces.”

The report underscores that “The spending boost marks a major reversal for Europe’s top economy, upending its policy of keeping a low military profile in part out of guilt over World War II.”

Germany’s air force commander Ingo Gerhartz said“There can be only one answer to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s aggression,” He added: “Unity in NATO and a credible deterrent. This in particular means there is no alternative but to choose the F-35.”

The stealth jet is indented to replace Luftwaffe’s fleet Tornado jets, which are capable of carrying and delivering US nuclear bombs currently placed in Germany as part of NATO’s atomic arsenal

Late last month during the opening days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz claimed that “Putin wants to establish a Russian empire…the question is…whether we can summon the strength to set boundaries to warmongers like Putin.”

Previously Bloomberg described that “Scholz had been widely criticized by opponents and allies alike in recent weeks for what they perceived as dithering and weakness in the face of Russia’s mounting aggression toward Ukraine.”

END

ESTONIA/UKRAINE RUSSIA

First NATO country calls for a no fly zone in Ukraine

(Phillips/EpochTimes)

First NATO Country Calls For No-fly Zone In Ukraine

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Estonia’s Parliament on Monday called for the creation of a no-fly zone in Ukraine as Russia’s attacks continue throughout the country, becoming the first NATO member state to do so.

“The Riigikogu (Parliament) asks the U.N. member states to take immediate steps to establish a no-fly zone in order to prevent massive civilian casualties in Ukraine,” the Parliament said, adding that it “expresses its support to the defenders and the people of the state of Ukraine in their fight against the Russian Federation that has launched a criminal war.”

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, when asked about whether a no-fly zone should be implemented, told reporters that it is “a matter that as you know has been analyzed by a number of countries that considered that possibility as a risk of escalation that could create a global conflict.”

But Guterres said that “we need to be prudent … even if I understand the dramatic appeal of the Ukrainian government.”

Since the start of the Feb. 24 conflict, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly called for a no-fly zone over the country. However, top NATO and White House officials said there is no consideration for a no-fly zone, as that would involve U.S. or NATO planes shooting down Russian ones.

The Biden administration said that such a move could provoke the Kremlin to further escalate attacks, including nuclear strikes.

“We’re going to continue to stand together with our allies in Europe and send an unmistakable message. We will defend every single inch of NATO territory with the full might of the united and galvanized NATO,” President Joe Biden said last week.

The United States and NATO, he added, “will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine” because a “direct conflict between NATO and Russia is World War III, something we must strive to prevent.”

On Monday, battles continued around many of Ukraine’s main cities, including the capital Kyiv. Ukraine said it would try to evacuate civilians through 10 humanitarian corridors on Monday.

Russia denies targeting civilians, describing its actions as a “special operation” to demilitarise Ukraine. Ukraine and Western allies call this a baseless pretext for Russia’s invasion of the democratic country of 44 million.

Frontline states such as Poland, which has welcomed well over half of the total number fleeing, and Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, and Moldova, have taken in the vast majority of the refugees, some of whom have then headed on further west.

Poland’s border guard said about 1.76 million people had entered the country since the fighting started, with 18,400 arriving during the early hours of Monday.

end

UK//RUSSIAN SANCTIONS

UK Sanctions Over 370 More Russians, Including Defense Minister & Ex-President

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 12:50 PM

The UK and the EU unveiled their latest sanctions against Russia as punishment for the Ukraine invasion, which are among the most expansive yet, given they include no less than 370 specific sanctions against Russian individuals and entities. Importantly, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is the list, as well as former president Dmitry Medvedev.

Among the fresh actions the UK has enacted is a ban on exports of all its luxury goods to Russia, and more importantly tariffs on inbound Russian goods valued at over $1 billion.

Russian goods including imports of vodka, high-end fashion, fur, works of art, and steel will see an additional 35% tariff, while the UK has further denied Russia and Belarus “most favored nation” trading status, which now deprives both of benefits regarding hundreds of exports. 

“Our new tariffs will further isolate the Russian economy from global trade, ensuring it does not benefit from the rules-based international system it does not respect,” UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak said in a Tuesday statement.

“These tariffs build on the UK’s existing work to starve Russia’s access to international finance, sanction Putin’s cronies and exert maximum economic pressure on his regime. These new measures will further tighten the growing economic pressure on Russia and ensure the UK acts in line with sanctions imposed by our allies,” it added.

A specific list of the export ban details is expected at a near-future date. According to CNN it is expected to have the following included

The full list of Russian goods facing import tariffs is: Iron, steel, fertilizers, wood, tires, railway containers, cement, copper, aluminum, silver, lead, iron ore, residue/food waste products, beverages, spirits and vinegar (this includes vodka), glass and glassware, cereals, oil seeds, paper and paperboard, machinery, works of art, antiques, fur skins and artificial fur, ships and white fish.

In terms of individual Russian officials, the new UK/EU measures mean that at this point over 1,000 individuals and entities have been targeted by the Western measures thus far.

The Guardian describes, “The UK is to impose sanctions on 370 more Russian individuals, including more than 50 oligarchs and their families with a combined net worth of £100bn, in the latest raft of measures against Vladimir Putin’s regime.”

“More than 1,000 individuals and entities have now been targeted with sanctions since the invasion of Ukraine, with fresh measures announced against key Kremlin spokespeople and political allies of Putin, including the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, considered a member of his elite inner circle of advisers known as his siloviki,” the report indicates.

END

EUROPE/NATURAL GAS

Why Europe’s energy independence is impossible with current policies

Daniel Lacalle

Europe Energy Independence Is Impossible with The Current Policies

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Europe is not going to achieve a competitive energy transition with the current interventionist policies. Europe does not depend on Russian gas due to a coincidence, but because of a chain of mistaken policies. Banning nuclear in Germany, prohibiting the development of domestic natural gas resources throughout the European Union, added to a massive and expensive renewable roll-out without building a reliable back-up.

Solar and wind do not reduce dependency on Russian natural gas. They are necessary but volatile and intermittent. They need back-up for security of supply from nuclear, hydro, and natural gas. Dependency rises in periods of low wind and little sun, just when prices are highest.

“Solar goes to zero for twelve hours a day, and that is guaranteed. The wind blows sometimes, and sometimes it does not, also guaranteed. They both depend on weather, which is 100% out of human control. They are on their best day a supplement” wrote a Navy pilot follower.

Batteries are not an option either. It is impossible to build an industrial-size network of enormous batteries, the cost would be prohibitive and the dependency on China build them (lithium etc.) would be even more of a problem. At current prices, a battery storage system of Europe’s size would cost more than $2.5 trillion, according to an MIT Technology Review paper. Massively more expensive than any other alternative.

Just the added cost of a battery grid plus the distribution and transmission network would make household bills soar even further.

Inflation was already out of control in Europe before the invasion of Ukraine was even a risk. CPI in Spain was 7.6%, in Portugal it was 4.2% and in Germany, 5.1%. Euro area CPI was 5.8%.

In the face of the impact on prices and energy from the invasion of Ukraine, we must remember:

– Europe was already in an energy crisis in 2020 and 2021.

The cost of CO2 permits soared and wholesale electricity prices reached record-high levels by December 2021.

– Europe does not “depend on Russian gas”. It is codependency.

Russia needs Europe to export, and Europe has no cheaper alternative. Let us remember that Russian gas is much cheaper than any other realistic alternative.

The long-term contracts signed with Gazprom are closed at prices that can be up to ten times lower than some of the current alternatives. The 150bcm that Europe imports from Russia can be replaced with liquefied natural gas from Norway and the North Sea, the United States, Algeria, Qatar, or Israel, but it will be much more expensive.

– The only alternative to Russia is to show that Europe countries have diversified and cheap sources of supply.

If Russia sees that European governments ban nuclear power, prohibit the development of indigenous gas reserves, intervene in imports, and add massive taxes like the cost of CO2, Russian authorities know that there is no competitive alternative, and that European industry and consumers will collapse due to rising cost of energy

– European governments should think hard about misguided policies when the continent has been saved this winter by natural gas imported from the United States produced with a technology, fracking, which has been banned in Europe.

Europe wants cheap and abundant energy, but politicians demonize nuclear, gas and oil. All the interventionist proposals that are put forward by European politicians entail a higher cost for long-suffering consumers.

– Natural gas flows all the time and is cheap and abundant.

It cannot be substituted with renewables that are intermittent, volatile, and unpredictable. The example of Germany is clear. After investing massively in renewables and doubling bills for consumers, it depends more on lignite-coal and Russian gas to guarantee supply. Germany has had to reactivate coal plants after spending more than $200 billion in subsidies and renewable costs!

– All technologies are necessary, and renewables are key, but they are not the alternative because they need natural gas back-up while the technology is developed, as it is still in its infancy.

Let’s not forget that massively installing renewables includes a huge cost in networks. Who will lower bills if the fixed cost of networks is multiplied with the $150 billion we estimate are needed to strengthen distribution and transmission networks?

– All the ‘magical’ alternatives that interventionism sells mean going from depending on Russia to depending on China.

Where are we going to get the silicon, aluminum, rare earths, copper, lithium, etc. necessary for those massive announced magical investments?

– Demonizing nuclear energy has left Europe in the hands of expensive and volatile alternatives.

The energy transition must be considered understanding the importance of security of supply and competitiveness. We need all technologies without ideological bias. We need solar, wind, natural gas, hydro, oil and nuclear or we will go from crisis to crisis and always paying more.

– It is absurd to maintain the hidden tax scheme of CO2 emissions during an unprecedented crisis.

Governments must use this income to reduce citizen’s bill.

– Border taxes on oil products or natural gas are not taxing producers, it is taxing consumers in European countries.

Whoever believes that the taxes that have been announced will be paid by Qatar, Nigeria or Brazil has a serious problem of economic understanding.

– A true energy transition must be competitive, reliable, and cheap, not a tax collection and looting machine.

It must consider all technologies. More industry and less politics. More competition and less ideology.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Kremlin states that their Ukraine operation is under full control and going according to plan

(zerohedge)

Kremlin Responds To US Claim Putin “Frustrated” Over Ukraine Operation, Says Military Was Told ‘Avoid Storming Major Cities’

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 07:20 PM

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak indicated Monday that the fourth round of Ukraine-Russia negotiations for a ceasefire hadn’t made much progress after they went for five hours. He said the stated aims of the talks are “on peace, ceasefire, immediate withdrawal of troops and security guarantees.”

“Although Russia realizes the nonsense of its aggressive actions, it still has a delusion that 19 days of violence against [Ukraine’s] peaceful cities is the right strategy,” he stated in a social media post. “The parties actively express their specified positions. Communication is being held yet it’s hard,” added, and included an image of the talks which are taking place via Zoom (unlike the prior three rounds which were in person just inside Belarus. “The reason for the discord is too different political systems.”

Despite lately citing progress in talks, Moscow appears not at all in the mood to compromise, given a flurry of statements out the defense ministry on Monday, including a statement indicating the military “does not rule out” placing major Ukrainian cities under “full control” to ensure the security of civilians”. This after Russia’s military is coming under Western and international condemnation over civilian deaths, and is accused of repeatedly breaking agreements for humanitarian evacuation corridors.

The Kremlin has also described that the military operation was carefully planned implemented with a key aim to avoid direct attacks on major population centers and to not result in civilian casualties, according to Reuters.

However, the statement charged that the US and EU are currently trying to “temp Russia into attack major population centers” which the Kremlin deems “a provocation”.Via Associated Press: An explosion is seen in an apartment building after a Russian army tank fired in Mariupol, Ukraine, on Friday.

Kiev has witnessed fighting in surrounding suburbs, but there’s still yet to be a large-scale assault or bombardment of the city, and days ago the capital’s mayor said half its population has already fled. The Kremlin continued in its Monday statement, explaining that the defense ministry was asked by Putin from the start of the operation to “refrain from storming major population centers”. According to state sources:

“The aforementioned US and EU officials seem to be pushing Russia to storm major cities in Ukraine in order to lay the blame on our country for the deaths of civilians. We consider this position to be provocative,” Peskov told reporters at a briefing Monday.

“At the start of the operation, the Russian president did in fact instruct the Ministry of Defense to refrain from an immediate storming of large settlements, including Kiev, due to the fact that armed nationalist formations are setting up firing points and placing heavy military equipment directly inside residential areas,” Peskov added. 

“At the same time, the MoD, while making sure to ensure the maximum security of the civilian population, does not exclude the possibility of taking complete control of those settlements which are practically surrounded, with the exception of zones used for humanitarian evacuation,” the spokesman added.

Now more than two weeks into the invasion, the United Nations has said that at least 596 people, including 43 children, have been killed. It said in a weekend statement that over 1,000 civilians, including 57 children, were wounded as of midnight Saturday.

Moscow has highlighted and condemned ramped up Ukrainian national forces attacks on pro-Russian civilians in the Donbas region, which appears confirmed in circulating videos on Monday:

The Kremlin further said Russia has “sufficient” military resources for its military operations in Ukraine, following a series of major Sunday US news reports alleging that Moscow has requested military resupplies of China. Both Beijing and Moscow have firmly denied that such a request ever took place, also with China’s foreign ministry saying it has no awareness of this. 

Simultaneous to anonymous Biden admin officials making the allegation Sunday, national security adviser Jake Sullivan commented on Russia’s strike of a Ukrainian base that’s a mere 10 to 15 miles from the border with NATO member Poland. Sullivan described that Russian attacks are coming on far West Ukraine as a ‘warning’ to the West due to Putin’s “frustration”

“What it shows is that Vladimir Putin is frustrated by the fact that his forces are not making the kind of progress that he thought that they would make against major cities including Kyiv,” Sullivan responded. Sullivan added that Putin is now “lashing out” and “trying to cause damage in every part of the country.”

In an apparent response to these and other statements from the US, the Kremlin says it is paying close attention to US and EU remarks of Putin “not being happy” with the state of military progress in Ukraine. The Kremlin reiterated that all military plans and goals “will be fulfilled in full” and according to “the time frames outlined”. 

Meanwhile Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has continued urging a West-backed no-fly zone over the country, saying that without it Russian rockets will continue to rain down on civilian centers. 

Further, in a fresh call Monday, Zelensky “pressed US President Joe Biden during their latest call for more sanctions to further squeeze Russia.” And as CNN cites, “According to multiple sources familiar with the call, Zelensky specifically asked Biden for further efforts to cut Russia off from international trade and to continue targeting the Russian elite, as the US has continued to add more oligarchs and their families to its sanctions list.”

This as a fourth round round of sanctions in being readied by the European Union. Reports Bloomberg: “The EU is putting the final touches to its fourth round of sanctions on Russia, taking aim at more than a dozen additional individuals — including Roman Abramovich — as well as trade in luxury goods and steel.” The report adds, “The details may be announced as early as today, just as Russian military activity in Ukraine is getting uncomfortably close to the bloc’s eastern border.”

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

USA rushes MANPADS to Ukraine

(Ditz/Atniwar.com)

US Rushes MANPADS To Ukraine, Downplays Risks

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 09:40 PM

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

Anti-tank missiles were the centerpiece of western arms shipments to Ukraine earlier in the war. New indications are that the focus is shifting to shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles (MANPADS), with the US and NATO getting as many as they can into the Ukraine.

The expectation is that the MANPADS will offer Ukraine substantial anti-aircraft capacity. Shipping a lot of MANPADS into a country is always a danger, because if they end up in the wrong hands they could threaten civilian airliners, and after the wars they tend to go missing into the global black market.Image: Reuters

That’s been a problem more than a few times, with the US shipping MANPADS into Afghanistan during the Soviet War, only to lose control of many of them. The most recent concerns were in the NATO regime change in Libya, where Libya’s huge cache of MANPADS were looted and sold across the region.

Both NATO and the airline industry are largely mum on the threats posed by such missiles. Russian officials are noting that the west is “grossly ignoring” a number of international agreements designed to prevent MANPADS proliferation.

Senior US officials say its a “risk worth taking,” which is easy to say since the risk of proliferation is chiefly in Europe, and the US has ample experience in ditching responsibility for unintended, albeit easily-predictable, blowback.

“Frankly, we believe that risk is worth taking right now because the Ukrainians are fighting so skillfully with the tools at their disposal and they’re using them so creatively,” a senior U.S. defense official said on Friday when asked about that danger.

It seems that the missiles are being used as a replacement for the warplanes Ukraine sought, and which the US feared would be seen as too big of an escalation. The assumption seems to be MANPADS are less of a risk in that regard.

Either way, it’s no secret what NATO is doing, and it sets a precedent where Russia or others might distribute MANPADS in other proxy wars they might want to get involved in.

Additionally, Russia’s military has said it will strike as “legitimate targets” any inbound arms shipments to Ukraine from foreign countries, which brings up the dangerous scenario of a broader Russia-NATO war being sparked.

end

RUSSIA/LESSORS/AIRLINES

This could lead to a huge default

(Reuters)

 Russian law creates new hurdle for foreign plane lessors | Reuters

Inbox

Robert Hryniak11:04 AM (6 minutes ago)
to Harvey

All payments will stop blowing up the leasing companies ….. 



https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-signs-law-registering-leased-planes-airlines-property-tass-2022-03-14/

Russian law creates new hurdle for foreign plane lessors

ReutersMarch 14, 202212:51 PM CDTLast Updated 8 hours ago

Russian President Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council in Moscow

March 14 (Reuters) – Russia on Monday passed a law allowing the country’s airlines to place airplanes leased from foreign companies on the country’s aircraft register – a manoeuvre likely to stoke Western fears of a mass default involving hundreds of jetliners.

The bill, signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, has rattled global leasing firms days before a March 28 deadline to repossess aircraft worth $10 billion as a result of Western sanctions imposed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russian airlines have almost 780 leased jets, with 515 leased from abroad.

The new law, part of Russia’s measures to combat the sanctions, says it aims “to ensure the uninterrupted functioning of activities in the field of civil aviation”.

It comes after Bermuda and Ireland, where virtually all foreign-leased jets operating in Russia are registered, said they were suspending airworthiness certificates on the jets because they could no longer be sure they were safe.

Re-registering jets in Russia would aim to keep them flying domestically by granting access to new safety approvals.

read more

But adding Russia as a second host country could put Moscow at odds with international rules barring the registration of civil planes in more than one country at a time.

Unless Western lessors agree to Russian requests to release their jets from foreign registries – widely seen as unlikely while they struggle as it is to regain control of assets – the new policy also paves the way for a major contractual debate.

“It is illegal to register an aircraft without proof of deregistration from the previous registry as well as the agreement of the owner. This would be a default under leasing contracts,” said aviation adviser Bertrand Grabowski.

AIRLINE DILEMMA

Technically, the new law does not instruct airlines to re-register their planes without the permission of owners led by Dublin-based AerCap (AER.N), the world’s largest air lessor.

But experts said it puts the onus on the airline to apply for new registration to keep flying inside Russia – at the risk of poisoning relations with powerful lessors once the crisis is over – or else do nothing and see their fleets grounded.

Not all of Russia’s 35 airlines, about 15 of which represent 95% of the country’s traffic, are relishing what experts have already warned could spiral into aviation’s largest default.

“We hope to avoid registering our planes in Russia; we want to return them to leasing companies,” a source at one of the airlines said.

“The airline would become an accomplice. The law provides a way to register in Russia, but does not oblige the airline to do so….It is the first step to the kidnapping of the airplanes.”

Moscow’s government insists special measures are needed in the face of sanctions on the economy that President Vladimir Putin has described as “akin to a declaration of war”.

Lawyers say a three-way legal battle between airlines, lessors and insurers could last for a decade. read more

AerCap and other major lessors declined comment on the law. Major Russian airlines Aeroflot and S7 also declined comment.

The Russian Federal Aviation Agency said 776 planes were registered abroad as of Feb. 24, the day Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a “special operation” to demilitarise and “denazify” its neighbour.

Dozens of older planes that found homes in Russia during the pandemic may never be returned and are said to be worth less than their owners may be able to claim in insurance.

But the world’s 11th largest aviation market also includes some of the newest jets including a state-of-the-art Airbus (AIR.PA) A350 delivered to Aeroflot on the day of the invasion.

The United States and Europe on one side and Russia on the other have blocked their airspace to each others’ airlines.

Russia’s state aviation authority recommended last week that airlines with foreign-leased aircraft suspend flights abroad, making it harder for lessors to make repossessions. Some 425 jets are most at risk, the consultancy Ascend by Cirium says.

 

Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Tim Hepher, Edmund Blair and Emelia Sithole-Matarise

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Authored by Isabel van Brugen via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Russian government in Moscow on March 10, 2022. (Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)

As sanctions cripple Russia’s aviation industry, President Vladimir Putin signed a law on Monday allowing foreign-owned aircraft to be re-registered as Russian for domestic use, according to state-run news agency TASS.

Russian airlines would have the ability to seize and operate aircraft leased by companies that are no longer operating in the country over sanctions imposed due to the Ukraine invasion, TASS reported.

Russian airlines have almost 780 leased jets, with 515 leased from abroad.

The new law, part of Russia’s measures to combat the sanctions, says it aims “to ensure the uninterrupted functioning of activities in the field of civil aviation.”

TASS reported that the aircraft will be certified using certification centers and test laboratories.

The bill has rattled global leasing firms days before a March 28 deadline to repossess aircraft worth $10 billion as a result of Western sanctions imposed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

It comes after Bermuda and Ireland, where virtually all foreign-leased jets operating in Russia are registered, said they were suspending airworthiness certificates on the jets because they could no longer be sure they were safe.File photo shows an aircraft of Russia’s flagship airline Aeroflot during a media presentation at Sheremetyevo International Airport outside Moscow on March 4, 2020. (Rueters/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo)

Re-registering jets in Russia would aim to keep them flying domestically by granting access to new safety approvals.

But adding Russia as a second host country could put Moscow at odds with international rules barring the registration of civil planes in more than one country at a time.

Unless Western lessors agree to Russian requests to release their jets from foreign registries—widely seen as unlikely while they struggle as it is to regain control of assets—the new policy also paves the way for a major contractual debate.

“It is illegal to register an aircraft without proof of deregistration from the previous registry as well as the agreement of the owner. This would be a default under leasing contracts,” said aviation adviser Bertrand Grabowski.

The Wall Street Journal noted that the law is likely to have limited effect, as sanctions prohibit maintenance, updates, support or the supply of spare parts for aircraft. Passengers could be put at risk as modern passenger jets require high levels of maintenance.

The Russian Federal Aviation Agency said 776 planes were registered abroad as of Feb. 24, the day Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a “special operation” to demilitarise and “denazify” its neighbor. Ukraine and the West argue that this is a false pretext to justify its invasion.

Reuters contributed to this report.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Here Are All The Latest News And Developments From The Ukraine War: March 15

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 09:20 AM

Here is a snapshot of the latest market-moving news out of Ukraine from the last few hours, courtesy of Newsquawk:

Discussions/Negotiations

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said negotiations with Russia will continue on Tuesday.
  • Ukrainian presidential adviser said Russia’s territorial claims are unacceptable and Ukraine is ready to continue negotiations on remaining issues, while the adviser added that a peace agreement could be signed within 1-2 weeks at the earliest and May at the latest, according to CCTV.
  • Ukrainian President’s office confirms that the Czech, Polish and Slovenian PMs are to visit Kyiv on Tuesday.
  • Russian Kremlin says that work is continuing between the Russian and Ukraine delegations, does not wish to predict the outcome of talks but it is a positive that talks are continuing.

Energy/Economic Updates

  • US State Department said the US added 11 members of Russia’s Defense Enterprise to the anti-Moscow sanctions list, according to Sputnik.
  • Japan imposed sanctions on an additional 17 Russians
  • Equinor (EQNR NO) is to stop trading in Russian oil and oil products, while it will not enter any new trades or engage in the transport of oil and oil products from Russia, but noted will receive for oil cargoes in March as part of pre-invasion commitments.
  • US Treasury official said Russian sovereign bond default would make it difficult for Russia to find future lenders, increase Moscow’s borrowing costs and drain resources, while the official sees limited exposure in the US financial system to Russian sovereign bonds and noted that falling prices of Russian sovereign bonds suggests investors see a high probability of a default and are preparing for alternative payment outcomes.
  • Yamal-Europe pipeline has suspended flows, via Reuters citing Gascade data; preliminary bids for eastward flows to Poland have emerged; subsequently, gas flows via the Yamal pipeline have reversed and flow eastwards to Poland from Germany, according to Gascade data.

Defence/Military

  • US President Biden said they will make sure Ukraine has weapons to defend against the invading Russian force, while they will send money and food and aid to save Ukrainian lives.
  • Ukrainian air force claimed that a Russian drone crossed into Poland before returning to Ukraine and was shot down by air defences.
  • UK Ministry of Defence said it hadn’t seen evidence to support Russian accusations of Ukraine intending to use chemical and biological weapons, while it added that Russia could be planning to use such weapons in a false-flag operation.
  • ELINT News reported loud explosions in downtown Kyiv, which could be missile strikes.
  • Russian forces have taken full control of Kherson, Ukraine, according to Sputnik citing the MoD.
  • Ukraine Presidential adviser says Russian forces are not trying to take Kyiv at the moment; additionally,
  •  Mykolayiv Governor says the situation in the region is calmer as Russia forces have been pushed back slightly from the regional capital.
  • Ukraine authorities have issued a country-wide air raid warning

Third Party

  • CNBC’s Kayla Tausche tweeted that NATO leaders are discussing holding an extraordinary meeting in Brussels late next week which US President Biden and other heads of state would attend, according to officials, but added it is not yet final.

Other

  • Majority of US GOP Senators vowed to not support a new nuclear deal with Iran, according to Sputnik.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says an agreement on the revival of the Iranian Nuclear deal is on the finishing straight. Meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister in Moscow
  • North Korea could conduct a nuclear test before or after the May 10th inauguration day for the incoming South Korean President, according to DongA.
  • Pakistan’s Foreign Minister rejects the statement from the Indian Defence Minister on the “mistaken missile launch”, stating that it is “incomplete”.
  • END

Map day 1 through 19 and progress made.

Inbox

Robert Hryniak4:31 PM (4 minutes ago)
to

Attachments area

Preview YouTube video Day 19 of Russian special operation in the Ukraine

A MUST READ….

Wars are never fought on a singular battlefield

Inbox

Robert Hryniak8:20 AM (32 minutes ago)
to

While I sent this out yesterday as an indication of what is coming from Russia and China, it is important that you recognize this as the ultimate challenge to dollar hegemony. This has massive repercussions globally and will affect everyone without exemption.

So please read this carefully, because it will impact you, in ways not explained, in the not too distant future. The order of things is being cast to to the winds of change and the West will never be the same.

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And again about dedollarization. 

ЕРЕВАН, 14 мар — Sputnik.Государства-члены Евразийского экономического союза (ЕАЭС) и Китай разработают проект независимой международной валютно-финансовой системы. Об этом договорились участники экономического диалога “Новый этап валютно-финансового и экономического сотрудничества ЕАЭС и КНР. Глобальные преобразования: вызовы и решения”, который прошел 11 марта в режиме видеоконференции.Предусматривается, что система будет основана на новой международной валюте, которая будет рассчитываться как индекс национальных валют стран-участниц и цен биржевых товаров. Первый проект вынесут на обсуждение до конца марта.Как подчеркнул министр по интеграции и макроэкономике ЕЭК Сергей Глазьев, Китай первым в мире перешел к этапу восстановления национальной экономики.

Translation: YEREVAN, March 14 – Sputnik. The member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and China will develop a project for an independent international monetary and financial system. This was agreed upon by the participants in the economic dialogue “A New Stage of Monetary, Financial and Economic Cooperation between the EAEU and the PRC. Global Transformations: Challenges and Solutions”, which was held on March 11 via videoconference. It is envisaged that the system will be based on a new international currency, which will be calculated as an index of the national currencies of the participating countries and commodity prices. The first draft will be submitted for discussion by the end of March. As Sergei Glazyev, Minister for Integration and Macroeconomics of the EEC, emphasized, China was the first in the world to move to the stage of national economic recovery.

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What is occurring in the Ukraine, while awful and heart breaking; change will hopefully in time allow a better life than what existed or was possible. However, the fight there is lost as it was on the day Russia moved. No matter the headlines the outcome is certain. And all shipments of arms are a indirect support by NATO of a Western mess that is a very dirty story of greed and tyranny and in time will become more widely known. In the interim, we witness a human tragedy made worse by those zealots protecting their financial turf, and not the people. No one should use civilians as human shields the way these folks are. But that is what we have seen many a time, in many a country before. However, it is important that attention is paid to what is really happening as opposed to distractions. When Russia moved on the Ukraine justified or not, what was put into real motion was a direct challenge to dollar hegemony and the world of things led by America and various financial partners participating in hegemony that existed since WWII. This was the start of a direct confrontation backed by a nuclear deterrent as the ultimate signal that the world will change or be destroyed because the current order no longer is sustainable or tolerated. Have no illusions, China is as much in this war as is Russia. And the real fight will be in trade settlement of currency as a means of settlement. What should be understood the dollar is under direct challenge now globally as a means of settlement. And it is just not Russia and China but a host of countries like India and Iran etc. If this block of nations backs down they are finished as hegemony players for a century, so do not expect them to back dow. They will fight to the end. 

So what we have is a block of raw material/ finished goods producing nations lined up vs consumers saying we do not accept your hegemony through USD, any longer. And we will now fight to ensure you no longer have the ability to dominate and hold producing nations down, to favor you. Please think this trough because it will affect everything going forward. There is no particular reason outside the dollar to think the labor of a person in say China or India is worth so much less than that of a person in America. A unit of labor is a unit of labor. What causes the difference, is the dollar and its’ acceptance as value diminishing the local value of units of labor.

When the perception of dollar value changes and a unit of labor wants true recognition of that labor the means of settlement which in this case is USD becomes under attack and becomes value challenged. Such challenges have occurred throughout history as empires get challenged and wars are fought. Read the history of the Opium wars where Britain fought China, whereby the nation of Britain was used to benefit certain companies like the East India company and certain British oligarchs. And it was no different with the Boston Tea party revolt in America. History simply repeats. Confidence in currency is about belief in value where leadership and respect exists and is fleeting where none exists.

This is came out the Kremlin this morning:

“Iran will play a crucial role in Russia’s nuclear deterrent.  As such, Russian nuclear missiles will be installed in Iran in the very near future.” Once this happens the whole of the Middle East and beyond has changed; whereas previous hegemony is tossed into the dustbin of history. And this is direct verbal warning followed by action to certain parties. Not to be outdone America and certain certain other parties are lining up to attempt naval blockades of raw material shipments from countries like Russia to China and India. Still think this is a game? This is calculated escalation sidestepping nuclear deterrent to attempt to force one side or the other to back down. However, what happens when national flagged vessels are stopped or sunk? What retaliation will come forth? Remember countries like India are nuclear powers who will protect their citizens because this is not just about Russia and China. What will America do wit a carrier fleet sunk? Or what will Britain do? Because the moment dreams of nuclear deterrent as reprisal commences a multitude of nations will let loose as te aggressor. We as a public are being kept in the dark of the realities occurring behind the curtain. 
At a time when thoughtful moral respected leadership is needed, there is none in the West. While we may see the likes of Vlad or XI as rogues and heart breaking pictures of Ukrainian conflict, we must understand that we are as much in this fight as anyone. Because what is happening without discourse are delusional actions led by vastly incompetent self interested parties who will stop at nothing to create a new order. And in so doing have put the lives of everyone in jeopardy. Have no illusions war and serious conflict is underway and it will take an act of god to prevent mass dislocations and death. H

SAUDI ARABIA/IRAN

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

COVID

GLOBAL ISSUES

A must read…..

Pozsar’s “Margin Call Doom Loop” Prediction Comes True As Trafigura Faces Billions In Margin Calls

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 04:40 PM

While there have been occasional stories of hedge fund blow ups (especially those trading Chinese stocks) amid the recent market volatility, so far we have yet to hear of a bank or any other “systematically important” market participant running into a solvency or liquidity crisis or needing a bailout, and yet a look at one of the most tangible funding market indicators – the FRA/OIS – has traded at very elevated levels in recent weeks, suggesting that there is indeed some funding trouble below the surface.

But if it is not the banks scrambling for liquidity, then who?

Recall what Zoltan Pozsar warned two weeks ago, when he said that “we could be looking at the early stages Of A Classic Liquidity Crisis” – according to the former NY Fed liquidity guru, none other than the commodity traders themselves, and their associated exchanges and clearinghouses, will be the drain of liquidity during this period of unprecedented commodity volatility, adding that “if you want to express all this in the credit space, look at what CDS spreads on some bigger commodity traders have done in the past few weeks.”

Sure enough, last week’s unprececented LME margin squeeze, where a 250% surge overnight in nickel prices nearly bankrupted Chinese tycoon Xiang Guangda whose Tsingshan Holding Group, the largest stainless steel maker, held a massive 150,000 tons nickel short and which resulted in $8 billion margin call which however even the collecting counterparties (one of which was JPMorgan) did not want to collect on knowing they would default Tsingshan, collect nothing and potentially push the LME itself into insolvency.

Another, more tangible example, comes from one of the world’s top oil and metal traders, which today we learn has been seeking funding from beyond its traditional group of bank private, approaching even equity investors, hoping to obtain $2 to $3 billion in fresh liquidity to meet what Bloomberg described as “margin calls in the billions of dollars” as oil prices surged to $139 a barrel and nickel soared 250% in little more than 24 hours. Precisely as Credit Suisse’s Zoltan predicted.

Now, another bank is on the trail of the source of liquidity crunch observed in unsecured funding markets.

In a note published overnight, Barclays strategist Joseph Abate desconstructs Zoltan’s key observation, and asks “could margin calls in commodity markets cause unsecured funding rates to rise as banks and investors scramble to meet demands for cash collateral?”

Taking a step back, Abate first notes that in his view, the pressure in unsecured funding pressure is driven principally by two factors: “a precautionary buildup of cash by banks that are uncertain about the geopolitical outlook and the maturity pileup of CP ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting.”

That said, and perhaps eyeing the tremendous sway Zoltan weekly views get, Abate writes that “each week brings a new explanation and a new cause for worry in funding markets. First it was the de-SWIFTing of Russian banks. Next it was fears of a “Lehman-like” spiral of secondary defaults tied to unobservable funding and borrowing linkages. The latest iteration ties the sharp increase in commodity prices to funding markets through margin calls.

Reverse engineering Pozsar’s main point, Abate notes that the latest concern among markets is that “trading companies that are long the physical  commodity and short derivatives as a hedge are experiencing steep margin calls from their exchanges” and Indeed, two central counterparty clearing houses (CCPs) have already raised their margins on energy contracts in the past week. To meet their requirements, Abate explains, these firms have to borrow large amounts of cash on very short notice, which puts strains on their bank lenders. And in order to raise the cash necessary to lend to the trading companies, their banks are tapping the CP market and pushing unsecured funding rates higher and spreads wider.

Yes, Abate may not want to admit it – after all mundane, boring explanations are far more palatable for institutional sellside strategists who would much rather not make waves (just please explain to your readers why your bank just decided to suspend share creation and make a mockery of its VXX ETN if nothing is wrong with the market), but Zoltan was right again.

* * *

A little background here: CCPs collect margin or extra collateral to protect themselves and their members from potential losses in the event of a default. Initial margin (IM) protects against the risk that the counterparty to the trade will not meet its future contract obligations. CCPs impose IM requirements at the product level, as well as at the portfolio or firm level. Members can meet their IM requirements with cash or government debt, although in most instances, participants use cash. CCPs are required to have sufficient pre-funded resources to be able to survive the default of their largest member. IM requirements are model-based using historical data on market volatility, and they are regularly stress-tested. A global survey of the largest CCPs indicates that they held just under $600bn in initial margin at the end of September 2021.2 Of this amount, some $100bn is above their required minimum.

As trading volumes increase or market volatility rises, CCPs demand more IM from their members. Because most members use cash to satisfy their IM requirements, this increases the demand for liquidity. By contrast, variation margin – which also rises with market volatility – redistributes margin cash from those with underwater positions to those with appreciating ones

In March, margin requirements jumped sharply as the first wave of the pandemic caused significant market volatility. At the time, the bid-ask spreads on off-the-run Treasuries were 30x larger than pre-pandemic levels, and although Treasury trading volumes increased, market liquidity was extremely thin. CCPs moved quickly to protect themselves and their members from default by increasing IM requirements. The increase in IM created demands on hedge funds and other investors that exacerbated the “dash for cash” and contributed to the increase in funding spreads.

Several studies have looked at the connection between margin calls and market stress, and most have focused on a margin call doom loop” in which higher margin requirements force fire sales into an already illiquid market where prices were gapping lower, which in turn triggered more margin calls, and so on. At the same time, these assets become harder to finance in repo, and with less access to financing, investors are forced to sell assets, which in turn increases the market dislocation, re-triggering the asset price and funding loops.

Absent a central bank liquidity injection “circuit breaker”, such a self-reinforcing doom loop could have catastrophic results.

* * *

What about the cash collected by the CCPs?

According to Abate, the margin cash collected by CCP does not sit idle, and instead – just like petrodollars used by oil exporters –  is recycled in the form of investments in short-term assets and bank deposits (as shown in the chart above, these recycled balances are quite large and well over half a trillion dollars). Globally, cash IM is typically invested in repo, bank deposits, or at the central bank

Thus, margin cash collected from investors does not fully leave the funding ecosystem. Instead, it returns to the market in the form of repo and bank deposits. It is only when CCPs deposit the margin cash at the central bank that it leaves the funding ecosystem.

Since the start of the pandemic, the portion of IM that is globally recycled into funding markets has fallen as the share held at central banks has risen to 62%. This is also true in the US. 

As part of Dodd-Frank (2010), systemically important financial market utilities (SIFMUs) have been able to deposit their margin cash at their local Federal Reserve branch. These balances are paid IORB. While the Fed does not break out deposits by owner separately on its balance sheet, our sense based on the participating SIFMUs is that most of this money is held at the Chicago Fed. Some balances are held at the New York Fed, but the Fed lumps these balances in with the unremunerated balances that the GSEs use to disburse their principal and interest payments.  Like the global data, the increase in the Chicago Fed’s other deposits suggests that more margin cash has flowed onto the Fed’s balance sheet since the March 2020 “dash for cash”.

What are the implications? According to Abate, so far “evidence of margin pressure on funding rates is somewhat weak” and he points to the $15 billion increase in deposit balances at the Chicago Fed over the past two weeks, which suggests that CCPs’ risk aversion has not climbed to the point at which they are no longer recycling margin cash.

However, this may be merely a lagging indicator, because as more instances of multi-billion margin calls by the likes of Trafigura – which its bankers are diligently hoping will be contained without sparking a broader funding squeeze, similar to what happened at Tsingshan – become public, CCPs will soon find themselves scrambling to contain dozens of small fires which eventually will all coalesce into a giant one, and where only the Fed can step in and halt it.

Meanwhile, from a geopolitical standpoint, one can argue that it is precisely this margin call “doom loop” that Putin hopes to spark and propagate across the financial system now that virtually everything – from food, to energy, to finance, to economics – has been weaponized… not to mention that China is now also hoping to usher in the petroyuan as it seeks to eventually displace the petrodollar from global circulation. And since we are now in a state of financial warfare, absent a ceasefire in Ukraine, expect much more commodity volatility, and many more multi-bilion margin calls, until eventually the big one is triggered, one which leads to a near default not of the LME but of a far bigger clearinghouse, a topic which none other than the world’s (formerly) biggest hedge fund bear, Russell Clark has been spending night and day discussing on his blog in recent weeks.

VACCINE MANDATES/

VACCINE INJURIES

Majority Of COVID Deaths Occur In Fully Vaxxed | NaturalHealth365

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Robert Hryniak11:01 AM (2 minutes ago)
to

This really alarming. I know of at least 2 people who are triple vaccinated who have Covid. In both cases within 6 months of their last booster.

https://www.naturalhealth365.com/majority-of-covid-deaths-occur-in-fully-vaxxed-3578.html

VACCINE IMPACT

Biden Executive Order Outlines Plan for Central Bank Digital Currency as the U.S. Dollar’s Status as the #1 World Currency is Almost Over

March 14, 2022 5:40 pm

Last week the White House published the “Executive Order on Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets” that will pave the way to a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) while regulating, and possibly eliminating, all competing cryptocurrencies. This is the end game for the Great Reset, which started with the COVID Plandemic in 2020, and is being further advanced today with the war in the Ukraine. The Globalists who run the world’s financial systems are mostly bankers, and they know that “payday” is almost here now, while the masses are mostly clueless and just assume that the world’s economy, particularly in the West, will just continue on forever running up debt and creating fiat cash out of thin air, not realizing that at some point people need to stop consuming and start producing something. The end goal for the Globalists here is the complete replacement of fiat currencies and hard cash with digital money that is controlled by the Central Banks. Just how far they are able to advance to reach this end goal is dependent upon YOU, the consumer, and how willing you are to resist, and to change your way of living to start moving into the segment of the population that produces goods and services, rather than depend upon “the system” to take care of you and provide everything for you. Because once that “system” eliminates cash and local currencies in favor of CBDCs, then your slavery to that system will be complete, and there will be NOTHING you can do without their permission.

Read More…


“Media Isn’t Warning You” That US Careening Towards Food Crisis

March 14, 2022 6:05 pm

Two weeks after the Russia-Ukraine crisis began, the world is quickly moving toward a food crisis that could affect millions of people. A spillover of the crisis could soon spark agricultural mayhem in the US. The curtailment of agricultural exports from Russia and Ukraine will have dramatic knock-on effects on global food supplies. Both countries are known as the ‘breadbasket of the world’ and are responsible for a quarter of the international wheat trade, about a fifth of corn, and 12% of all calories traded globally. Another major problem is access to fertilizers, as Russia has banned exports of the nutrients. It’s not whether or not there will be a food crisis. It’s how big that crisis will be.

Read More…




Michael Every

on the major topics of the day

Michael Every…

a must read…

“Risk” Is On: Food, Energy, Goods And Finance Are All Being Used As A Weapon

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 09:09 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

“Risk” is on. I don’t mean market risk: not when Western stocks are slumping after yet another head-fake rally, the Nasdaq now in a bear market again; not when Chinese stocks are experiencing a 2008-style collapse – and who knew geopolitics and ideology still mattered in a highly geopolitical, openly Leninist political-economy?; not when oil prices are down 35% from their recent high; and not when US Treasury yields are surging, and the 5s-10s curve is close to inverting even before the Fed meeting this week. No, that is all very much risk off, even as some will cling to the hope that China slashing banks’ reserve requirement ratios and rates, even as the Fed hikes, and despite its surprise failure to cut 10bp to 2.75% today as expected, is good news.

What I mean that the boardgame “Risk” is on, which I used as a visual analogy of where geoeconomics would end up once neoliberal free trade failed in 2017’s ‘The Great Game of Global Trade’. To say it was not a popular call at the time is an understatement: but here we are.

Yesterday’s key meeting between the US and China in Rome obviously did not go well. Pre-meeting, I was informed the article doing the rounds from a Chinese academic saying Beijing should dump Russia for the West was banned from circulation in China. The official US read-out was bare bones, which is the diplomatic practice when there is nothing positive to say. Worse, US intelligence has told allies that Russia asked China for surface-to-air missiles, drones, armoured vehicles, logistics vehicles, and intelligence-related equipment – and that China responded positively.

Naturally, the implications are enormous – the White House says there will be “consequences” for China if this occurs and the State Department that “we will ensure that no country is able to get away with trying to bail out Russia”. A D.C.-based analyst also Tweets to underline: “The view from Washington is unanimous: a decision by China to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine would be a betrayal of its commitment to act as a responsible great power and would severely and irrevocably damage what remains of the US-China relationship. There is no doubt that China would share in the unprecedented economic and political pain that Russia now suffers as a pariah state. Much of the favour Beijing has had cultivated in Europe over the past 30 years would evaporate overnight.”

Those are the stakes in this game of “Risk” – China as the next Russia. And yet speaking from conversations with markets here in Asia, there are still buy-side(!), not sell-side, Street analysts not allowed to even mention the word “war” in regard to Ukraine or Russia, or to allude to anything that is going on globally except in the vaguest of possible terms, such as “geopolitics”… as if that word carries all the required explanatory and/or predictive power in isolation.

For them, in the game of “Risk”, you capture territory to increase your resources to increase your global power. That is underway in Ukraine, although Russian military expert Michael Kofman points out Russia seems increasingly set on destroying Ukraine economically with its latest bombing as part of its “demilitarisation” plan. If so, it looks a repeat of the post-WW2 Morgenthau plan to turn Germany back into a nation of peasant farmers. And in the real world you can also use resources to ‘capture’ territory economically and politically:

In food, yesterday Argentina banned soy and soy oil exports; agri giant Bayer announced it would cease vital exports to Russia, as “Crop supplies are contingent on peace.”; and Russia said it may halt exports of wheat, barley, corn, and rye until 30 June, with exceptions for friends, as there are with its and Belarus’s fertilizer export ban. **FOOD IS BEING USED AS A WEAPON**

In energy, nobody believes prices are going to stay low for long even as they slumped yesterday. India is proposing rupee trade with Russia to buy its oil at a discount. Many voices say this is the end of the US dollar as global hegemon. Most of those looked at the size of the two countries on the map and not at Russia-India trade of just $2.6 billion. Yes, oil, fertilizers, and weapons are key categories in “Risk”, but this is a rounding error for the global Eurodollar… even if it is a potential geopolitical error for a White House with little such ‘game’. On which, the US officially backed away from talking to Venezuela to get its oil – but US energy firms suggest they are open to debt for oil swaps with it. The US says the Iran nuclear deal is at an impasse, and it is looking for “diplomatic alternatives” to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon – as Saudi Arabia invites Xi Jinping to visit in May, showing its diplomatic alternative. **ENERGY IS BEING USED AS A WEAPON**

In manufactured goods, China locked down Shenzhen, with other provinces feared to be next. Foxconn has already shuttered key tech goods production: so, Covid shortages are back – and Hong Kong data point to how rampant Covid is proving vs. Chinese vaccines. Some wonder darkly if this was also a signal to the US – force decoupling with China (e.g., driving the collapse in Chinese tech stocks), and see your supply of goods interrupted. Yet if so, it’s the same threat as from Russia – and nothing makes a better case for decoupling, as we see with Russia. **GOODS ARE BEING USED AS A WEAPON(?)**

In logistics, Ukraine is pushing for Russian ships to be banned from global ports; many ocean carriers won’t go to Russia or unload Russian cargo; and foreign ships may be banned from Russian ports. Vladivostok is now unserved by international airlines, leaving it only reachable by train or car – while imported parts last for the latter: my Russian friend reports everyone now fears their vehicle being stripped on the street. Western (and Japanese and South Korean) airlines flying to/from Europe to Far Eastern destinations can no longer fly over Russia, adding hours to the journey time and hugely to the cost: Paris – Beijing could now take up to 6.5 hours extra! And just imagine if China were also to close its airspace too. **LOGISTICS ARE BEING USED AS A WEAPON**

In the economy/finance, I have to correct myself, in that yesterday I stated it would cross a Rubicon for the West to appropriate Russia’s FX reserves and give them to Ukraine: I forgot the US already did just that with Afghanistan’s FX reserves, which it froze half of while donating the other half to 9/11 charities, leaving millions of Afghans to risk starvation as food prices soar. On Russia, CNBC Twitter cites a Deputy US Treasury Secretary stating further sanctions options on the table include a full trade embargo and blockading access to international waterways(!) – which would require the US Navy and be taken as an act of war by Russia; and bans on nickel, uranium, and titanium exports – just as the LME reopens with new 15% daily limits on metal price movements. (Play nicely, children, and remember not to short squeeze Chinese giants because it’s not allowed.) The blockade idea is worth remembering – and Beijing will certainly do so given how much it relies on maritime imports of food and energy, and exports of its goods. **THE ECONOMY/FINANCE IS BEING USED AS A WEAPON**

In La-La-Land, Elon Musk has challenged Putin to single combat with Ukraine as the prize. And Russia’s Sputnik News says Zelenskiy says peace could be established by May. So ignore all of the above and go risk on – which the market no doubt will try to today. **HUMOUR AND PROPAGANDA ARE BEING USED AS WEAPONS**

I have to confess that I played “Risk” endlessly when younger, and I sadly specialised in rolling 2s and 1s, not 5s and 6s, hearing my fellow players yell, “Break it up, shmendrick!” Those in markets who don’t see we are playing that game today will be the broken-up shmendricks. Until a global winner emerges, massive daily volatility looms. Commodity prices will more likely saw-tooth higher than lower. Bond yields will saw-tooth higher/flatter in response until central banks break markets with theirs. FX will saw-tooth all over the place: and watch CNY, which just had another daily fix set 100 pips weaker than market expectations, while CNH has moved from 6.31 to 6.41 since 23 February – imagine where geopolitics could take it yet.

Let’s conclude to note the RBA minutes today showed the bank noticing Ukraine, and flagging “a major new source of uncertainty”. Quite. Now back to reading ‘Domain’ for them.

And China saw a slew of strong key numbers, with industrial production 7.5% y/y vs. 9.6% in January and 4.0% expected, fixed asset investment 12.2% y/y vs. 4.9% and 5.0% expected, retail sales 6.7% y/y vs. 12.5% and 3.0% expected, and property investment 3.7% y/y vs. 4.4% and -7.0% expected. So, despite lockdowns, and the early Ukraine war backdrop, and what were already slumping stock markets last month, and a weak housing market, and fears of Fed hikes, and the on-the-ground China Beige Book guys seeing no sign of real strength, China is baaaaaack! Time for them to raise rates then, right? Riiiight… This is the same China not seeing any CPI inflation as the rest of the world is ravaged by it. **DATA ARE BEING USED AS A WEAPON, HUMOUR, OR PROPAGANDA**

Have a good day – and don’t roll a 2 and a 1. China clearly makes its own dice, so doesn’t need to worry.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

Biden is one big food:  He has given Russia written guarantees that the sanctions on Russia will not impact the nuclear Iran deal

(zerohedge)

Oil Slides Under $100 After Russia Says Given “Written Guarantees” Ukraine Sanctions Won’t Impact Iran Nuclear Deal

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 08:26 AM

Brent prices have dropped below $100 (down $40 from a week ago) and WTI is below $95/bbl,  following headlines that signal potential relief to supply woes, with Moscow saying that Russia has received “written guarantees” from the Biden administration that its trade with Iran won’t be impacted by Ukraine-related sanctions, and suggesting that negotiations which had been put on ice late last week, may resume.

“They are included in the text of the agreement itself on the resumption” of the deal on Iran’s nuclear program, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. Within the past days, talks toward restoring the JCPOA nuclear deal in Vienna were declared “paused” – after more than a week ago Russia demanded written guarantees that Ukraine-related sanctions arising from the invasion which began on Feb.24 wouldn’t impact its trade partnership with Iran. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov welcomes his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, AFP via Getty Images

Lavrov said in a March 5th message: “We have asked for a written guarantee…that the current process triggered by the United States does not in any way damage our right to free and full trade, economic and investment cooperation and military-technical cooperation with the Islamic Republic.”

In the wake of the “pause” in talks announced last Friday, March 11, Russia’s chief negotiator, Mikhail Ulyanov, sought to bat down the charge that it’s all about Moscow throwing a monkey wrench into the Vienna process. He said immediately after the stoppage of talks was announced:

“The only thing which I want to tell you…the conclusion of the deal does not depend on Russia only.”

Western officials had expressed fears that Moscow would use the Vienna process – particularly at a moment the Biden administration is scrambling to tap new supplies of oil and gas for Europe as an alternative to dependency on Russia – as leverage against the US and EU’s fresh Ukraine-related isolation measures and sanctions. 

The Wall Street Journal wrote last Friday, “The Iran nuclear talks broke off Friday with no agreement, imperiling negotiations… After weeks of round-the-clock negotiations in Vienna, the breakoff in talks significantly raises the prospect that efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal may fail.”

But this new announcement by the Russian foreign ministry suggests talks may now be back “on”. Reuters writes on Tuesday of the new development, “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told his Iranian counterpart on Tuesday that agreement on the revival of the Iranian nuclear deal was in the finishing straight.” The report says “Lavrov made the remarks at the start of talks in Moscow that were expected to be followed by a news conference.”

end

THE PETRODOLLAR scheme is cracking: Saudi Arabia is considering accepting yuan for Chinese oil sales.

(zerohedge)

Petrodollar Cracks: Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan For Chinese Oil Sales

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 10:03 AM

One of the core staples of the past 40 years, and an anchor propping up the dollar’s reserve status, was a global financial system based on the petrodollar – this was a world in which oil producers would sell their product to the US (and the rest of the world) for dollars, which they would then recycle the proceeds in dollar-denominated assets and while investing in dollar-denominated markets, explicitly prop up the USD as the world reserve currency, and in the process backstop the standing of the US as the world’s undisputed financial superpower.

Those days are coming to an end.

One day after we reported that the “UK is asking Saudis for more oil even as MBS invites Xi Jinping to Riyadh to strengthen ties“, the WSJ is out with a blockbuster report, noting that “Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price its some of its oil sales to China in yuan,” a move that could cripple not only the petrodollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market – something which Zoltan Pozsar predicted in his last note – and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia, but also a move aimed squarely at the heart of the US financial system which has taken advantage of the dollar’s reserve status by printing as much dollars as needed to fund government spending for the past decade.

According to the report, the talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom.

The Saudis are angry over the U.S.’s lack of support for their intervention in the Yemen civil war, and over the Biden administration’s attempt to strike a deal with Iran over its nuclear program. Saudi officials have said they were shocked by the precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last year.

China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports, and if priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency, and set the Chinese currency on a path to becoming a global petroyuan reserve currency.

While nothing new to regular ZH readers (see this from 2017, “The World’s New Reserve Currency? Everything You Need To Know About PetroYuan“), the idea of a new global reserve currency was reintroduced last week by none other than former NY Fed staffed Zoltan Pozsar who wrote in his latest note that “when this crisis (and war) is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker and, on the flipside, the renminbi much stronger, backed by a basket of commodities. From the Bretton Woods era backed by gold bullion, to Bretton Woods II backed by inside money (Treasuries with un-hedgeable confiscation risks), to Bretton Woods III backed by outside money (gold bullion and other commodities).”

And so the pieces of the endgame are falling into place: Russia starving the western world of much needed resources, sending commodity prices ever higher, while it’s silent partner China quietly picks up the pieces and takes advantage of Russia’s isolation to approach all those other “non-western” former petrodollar clients to offer them a new product, the yuan, which Beijing is now actively and aggressively pushing to dethrone the dollar as a global reserve currency.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

ARGENTINA

Now Argentina halts soy exports as food protectionism throughout the globe intensifies

(zerohedge)

Argentina Halts Soy Exports As Food Protectionism Soars 

MONDAY, MAR 14, 2022 – 06:40 PM

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted the global food supply chain as the prospect for dwindling stockpiles catapulted food prices to record highs. Governments worldwide are beginning to enforce protectionist measures to safeguard domestic food supplies. 

According to a memo signed by Javier Preciado Patino, the secretary for agriculture markets, Argentina made moves this weekend to increase control over local farm goods by suspending soybean meal and oil for export.

The temporary halt by the world’s top exporter of processed soy products comes after Russia invaded Ukraine that disrupted global food markets. Following the news from Argentina, soy meal futures prices jumped more than 2.2%.

Since late February, Argentina has intervened in food markets with a subsidy for the domestic wheat industry similar to earlier policies for vegetable oils to mitigate soaring costs for consumers. UN expects global food prices could increase another 8%-20% from here.

“The government typically puts a block on the export register, known as DJVE, before increasing taxes on shipments in order to stop farmers from preempting the hike with a flood of selling,” Bloomberg said, adding there’s speculation on commodity desks that Argentina will increase taxes on soy meal and oil to 33% from 31%. 

Soy traders tell Reuters, “the sudden halt in Argentine supplies will steer importers toward the United States and Brazil for replacement supplies.” 

“Buyers have no choice but to reduce consumption or go to alternative sources for supplies.

“We expect higher demand for U.S. meal. In Southeast Asia, buyers such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand were heavily reliant on the Argentine meal,” said one Singapore-based trader.

This all comes down to that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked protectionist measures not just by Argentina but also in other countries who are nervous about local supplies and soaring prices. 

Steve Mathews, head of strategy at Gro Intelligence, told Bloomberg that protectionist measures could cause international prices to rise even higher due to tightening global supplies. “It adds greatly to the inflationary concerns,” he said.

Add Argentina to the growing list of countries, including Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Hungary, and Serbia, banning exports of farm goods. 

Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management, warned the current disruption of the global food supply chain could spark a global “great famine.” 

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0988 UP .0046 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED    

USA/ YEN 118.05  DOWN  .167 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3052 UP   0.0032

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 159.57 PTS OR 4.95%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 1116.58PTS OR 5.72%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.89%   // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED   

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED     

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 1116.58 PTS OR 5.72%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 159.57 PTS OR 4.95%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.89%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 38,63 PTS OR 0.15%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1923.55

silver:$24.59-

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.81  DOWN 19  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.83%  DOWN 3  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.210%  UP 1 AND 5/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.33%// DOWN 5   in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.92 DOWN 5    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 59 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.352% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.57% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0972  UP .0030    or 30 basis points

USA/Japan: 118.25 UP 0.026 OR YEN DOWN 3  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3069 UP 59  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN 19 BASIS pts to 1.2803

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED )..DOWN 6.3706  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3876

TURKISH LIRA:  14.64  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.210

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  2.133% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.478 UP 0 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.93 DOWN 7   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 35.12 PTS OR 0.49%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 2.24 POINTS OR .02%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 12.26.PTS OR 0.09% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 9.60PTS OR 0.12%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 10.57 PTS OR 0.24%

WTI Oil price 93,99    12: EST

Brent Oil:  98.74  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:   104.0 UP  18 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE UP BY 18  BASIS PTS )

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.352

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0946 UP  .0004   OR UP 4 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3038 UP  .0029 or UP 29 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 118.27 UP 0.046

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2772 DOWN .0050 (CDN dollar UP 50 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 96.00

Brent OIL:  99.10

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.151 UP 1 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.489  UP 1  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.73

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA ROUBLE:  106.25 DOWN 16ROUBLES (ROUBLE UP 16 ROUBLES/USA )//

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 599.10 PTS OR 1.82%

NASDAQ 100 UP 411.92 PTS OR 3.6%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 30.01 DOWN 3.38 PTS OR 1.85%

GLD: 178.92 DOWN 3.38 PTS OR 1.85%

SLV/ 22,99 DOWN .17 PTS OR 0.73%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Crude Craters, Chinese Tech ‘Dead Cat Bounces’, & VXX Decouples From Reality

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Another ‘dead cat bounce’ in Chinese tech stocks (after the overnight bloodbath), a dip in core PPI (just ignore surging headline PPI… oh and CPI), and a plunge in crude (on positive Iran-nuke-deal comments) were enough to ignite some momentum in US equities today (shrugging off Russia’s sanctions escalation and Putin’s non-peace-deal-like comments)…

Nasdaq was the leader today, soaring to over 3% gains intraday after being down almost 1 % in the pre-open

The Bear Traps Report notes that at 115 days, the Nasdaq is 3 days away from the longest correction since the financial crisis. Thus far, Nov 19, 2021 to Mar 14, 2022 -21.6%, 115 days.

Notably, today’s bounce in Growth occurred right at the crux of the Russell 1000 Growth/Value support line…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was also bid, with Bitcoin jumping back above $39,500…

Source: Bloomberg

And amid all that, utter chaos reigned in the biggest VIX ETN (VXX) which exploded higher, completely decoupling from the reality of its underlying asset (amid arb short-squeeze)…

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese tech stocks dumped and pumped for the second day… only to end (for the second day) with selling pressure…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0Zndfc2tlbGV0b25fbG9hZGluZ18xMzM5OCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJjdGEiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19ob3Jpem9uX3R3ZWV0X2VtYmVkXzk1NTUiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiaHRlIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190b3BpY19waXZvdHNfZW1iZWRfMTM1NDUiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiY29udHJvbCIsInZlcnNpb24iOjR9LCJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfX0%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1503827181465739266&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fcrude-craters-chinese-tech-dead-cat-bounces-vxx-decouples-reality&sessionId=ce2bb0164c693708c14f38821dcb113e1ffead1f&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

An oldie but a goodie…

Bonds continued their bloodbath, though today more a roller-coaster than the straight shot higher in yield of the last few days, with overnight buying reversiing immediately at the US cash equity open…

Source: Bloomberg

Which left 10Y at its highest since July 2019…

Source: Bloomberg

The question is, will 30Y Yields stick to the script of the last 30 years and reverse here?

Source: Bloomberg

One rate-hike appears a ‘done-deal’ for tomorrow, but the market is now pricing in 7 rate-hikes for the year…

Source: Bloomberg

But 18bps of rate cuts are priced in for 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was very modestly lower today, treading water at the of its recent range…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude tumbled below $100…

Gold also extended its losses below $2000 again today (despite a brief bounce on Putin’s comments)…

Finally, is it too soon to say ‘tensions are easing’ as FRA/OIS dipped today (suggesting some drop in systemic risk concerns)…

Source: Bloomberg

But just look back a few days and you’ll see another ‘dip’.

And in case you needed an excuse to ‘buy stocks’, The Fed’s staff’s geopolitical risk index to the highest level since the Iraq War…

And a quick reminder… every Fed hiking cycle in the fiat high debt era has led to some kind of financial crisis somewhere across the world…

And so just to clarify – stocks rallied today… because enough rate-hikes are priced-in to guarantee a recession… which assures rate-cuts!

END

I) /MORNING TRADING

END

AFTERNOON

Rally Halts After Putin Says Ukraine “Not Serious About Finding Acceptable Solution”

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 12:13 PM

For the third day in a row stocks roared out of the gate and oil tumbled as a result of optimism that a ceasefire was just around the corner, and for a third day in a row the rug has been pulled, this time by Putin himself who just before 12pm ET told European Council President Charles Michel that Ukraine “is not showing a serious attitude toward finding mutually acceptable solutions” in talks with Moscow on ending the fighting.

In a brief statement on the leaders’ phone conversation Tuesday, the Kremlin said they also discussed the military operation and humanitarian-relief measures.

Separately, Russia also told the European Council that it was pulling out, an outcome which was largely expected.

In response, Michel tweeted that he “called for an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of Russia’s military” and that he “discussed ongoing negotiations between Ukraine and Russia” noting that “protection of civilian lives is an absolute priority.”

In kneejerk response to this latest confirmation that any compromise in Ukraine is a long way away, US equities which had rallied as much as 1.6% since the start of trading retraced some of gains…

.. and European stocks fell sharply following, while Brent bounced back over $100 and gold moved higher after tumbling earlier in the session.

END

II) USA DATA

PPI up to 10% and a good indicator of future inflation levels

(zerohedge)

US Producer Prices Soar At Double-Digits For First Time

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 08:37 AM

Following the far-hotter-than-expected CPI print, analysts expected Producer Prices to extend their acceleration, and they did rising 10.0% YoY in February (vs +9.7% YoY in January), hitting double-digits for the first time since Bloomberg data began.

Also notable is that January’s PPI data was revised higher, from +9.7% to +10.0% YoY.

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 21st straight month of MoM rising producer prices, and given the sustained upward pressure from the supply chain and intermediate demand, it doesn’t look like a transitory turn any time soon…

Source: Bloomberg

Nearly 40 percent of the February increase in prices for final demand goods can be attributed to the index for gasoline, which rose 14.8 percent.

Prices for diesel fuel, electric power, jet fuel, motor vehicles and equipment, and dairy products also advanced.

In contrast, the index for fresh and dry vegetables decreased 9.4 percent. Prices for beef and veal and for hot rolled steel sheet and strip also moved lower.

PPI final demand services: prices for truck transportation of freight moved up 2.0 percent. The indexes for food and alcohol retailing, machinery and vehicle wholesaling, transportation of passengers (partial), and outpatient care (partial) also rose. Conversely, prices for portfolio management decreased 4.2 percent. The indexes for guestroom rental; apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing; automobile retailing (partial); and residential real estate loans (partial) also declined.

And there appears to be a shortage of everything except financial advisors: prices for portfolio management decreased 4.2%.

Finally, the market is now pricing in 7 rate-hikes for 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Will today’s PPI prints push that even higher (and increase the odds of a 50bps hike in May following tomorrow’s hike) or lower as there was some dovish optimism however, as core PPI printed lower than expected (+6.6% YoY vs +7.3% exp vs +6.8% YoY prior).?

end

end

IIb) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATE STORIES

Rand Paul introduces the “Fauci Amendment” to prevent a health dictatorship

(Watson/SummitNews)

Rand Paul Introducing ‘Fauci Amendment’ To Prevent “Health Dictatorship”

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Senator Rand Paul has announced that he intends to introduce an amendment in the Senate to prevent anyone from ever again becoming a health ‘dictator in chief’.

In an op-ed for Fox News, Paul noted that the action “would eliminate Dr. Fauci’s position as NIAID director,” as well as “divide his power into 3 separate institutes.”

Paul explained that “Each of these three institutes will be led by a director who is appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate for a five-year term.”

The Senator added that “This will create accountability and oversight into a taxpayer-funded position that has largely abused its power and has been responsible for many failures and misinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

“No one person should have unilateral authority to make decisions for millions of Americans,” Paul urged, adding that his amendment could “ensure that ineffective, unscientific lockdowns and mandates are never foisted on the American people ever again.”

“No one person should have the sole authority to dictate science, especially when that one person wasn’t ever following the science,” Paul asserted, emphasising that “For two years our lives were held captive by petty tyrants and power-hungry bureaucrats.”

Paul pointed to the recent Johns Hopkins study that found global lockdowns have had a much more detrimental impact on society than they have produced any benefit, with researchers urging that they “are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.”

“A rational person might ask, how in the world did it take us so long to get to the truth?” Paul noted, asking “Why did we spend two years not following the science?”

“Well again, that’s what happens when “the science” is dictated by one man, an unelected bureaucrat with far too much power,” he concluded, referring to Fauci.

“Dr. Fauci caused people to engage in activities they wouldn’t have normally by telling them it was safe when masked when it wasn’t. I tried to sound the alarm, but I was censored by YouTube and my videos were taken down,” Paul noted.

He continued, “Dr. Fauci and his friends worked diligently to silence opposing views. The media amplified his efforts. We were branded conspiracy theorists and anti-science for simply asking questions and presenting alternatives to what had been delivered to the American people as ‘fact.’”

As we noted at the time, YouTube suspended Paul for questioning the efficacy of face masks despite the fact that the Senator’s comments were virtually identical to those made by Joe Biden’s former COVID adviser Dr. Michael Osterholm just one week prior.

Months later, when the CDC revised its guidelines on masks, admitting that cloth masks do virtually nothing to stop the spread of COVID, Paul asked “Does this mean snot-nosed censors at YouTube will come to my office and kiss my … and admit I was right?”

“The biggest lesson we have learned over the last two years is that no one person should have this much unchecked power. And my amendment, which will get a vote this week, will finally force accountability and fire Dr. Fauci,” Paul asserted Sunday.

end

Total insanity

The Omicron acts as a wonderful vaccine…very mild and then you get natural immunity

Watson/SummitNews

Fauci Says More Vaccines Will Be Needed; “We’re Not Done With This”

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 09:25 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Health dictator Anthony Fauci declared Monday that Americans will need to take more COVID vaccines, just a day after the CEO of Pfizer proclaimed that a fourth shot is needed immediately.

In an interview with CNBC, Fauci was asked how many more shots will be needed, and responded “The answer is: we don’t know. I mean, that’s it…it is likely that we’re not done with this when it comes to vaccines.”

The comments dovetail with those of Albert Bourla, who said Sunday “It is necessary – a fourth boost – right now,” when asked about vaccines.

The Pfizer head said “The protection that you are getting from the third [vaccine] is… not that good against infections, but doesn’t last very long but we are just submitting those data to the FDA and then we will see what the experts also will say outside Pfizer.”

Bourla also told CNBC last week that Pfizer has officially notified the FDA of an upcoming application for a fourth vaccine:

While admitting there is “very little information” to go onBourla has previously stated that a fourth vaccine is needed, with eventual annual boosters being the “most likely scenario”.

The CEO of Moderna, Stephane Bancel, also suggested last month that a fourth vaccine is coming.

The calls for more vaccines also come as China has instituted a massive lockdown of 51 million people, covering the entire northeastern province of Jilin, where 24 million people live, as well as the southern cities of Shenzhen and Dongguan, with 17.5 million and 10 million, respectively.

China reported 1,437 cases of COVID across dozens of cities on Monday, equating to a four-fold increase within the span of one week.

iii) USA inflation//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

end

iii) USA economic stories

Another market breaks:  this time the VXX which is another volatility measures.  The VXX was halted 4 times today as it soared completely disconnected to the tracking VIX whichis down on the day

(zerohedge)

Biggest Vol ETN Breaks: VXX Halted Four Times As It Soars, Completely Disconnected From The VIX

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 10:23 AM

The Volmageddon event of February 2020 is back, only this time instead of destroying the XIV inverse ETF, it is now targeting the VXX

Yesterday we said that we had a feeling the market would break today, and one look at the VXX volatility-tracking ETN, confirms just that.

As a reminder, on Monday morning Barclays announced – to the shock and dismay of millions of VXX investors on both the long and short side – that it would suspend any further sales from inventory and any further issuances of the VXX VIX Short-Term Futures ETN, claiming that “Barclays does not currently have sufficient issuance capacity to support further sales from inventory and any further issuances of the ETNs.” As some humorously put it, a volatility ETN just broke because of… volatility.

As a result, we also said that it is likely that this product would trade significantly above its asset-based IV price; in fact it would become completely disconnected from its underlying volatility tracker,  it will likely become very difficult to short these products & without shares to short, authorized participants can’t do arbitrage operations they typical run to drive price down to IV Price.

And sure enough, that’s what is happening this morning, as the VXX has exploded as much as 50% higher even as its underlying – the VIX – is down on the day…

… halted four time in the process (and likely to be halted many more as the day progresses)…

… and margining out countless retail investors who were short the VXX in hopes of collecting pennies in front of a steamroller… which just arrived.

What happens next? Well, if a Chinese tycoon was short the VXX, we are confident that BATS – the market it trades on – would halt the VXX indefinitely and “resolve” the situation. Alas, since only retail investors are getting wiped out, expect nothing to change and while many will sue Barclays, they will collect at most pennies on the dollar.

For those shocked about what is going on with the VXX and what is likely to happen next, here is a primer courtesy of Goldman Sachs:

VIX Positioning: Q&A on VIX Markets Following the VXX Issuance Suspension

Adding to an already-busy week, with derivative markets focused on the FOMC, Ukraine war-driven disruptions, and a large options expiration, the largest VIX ETP (by AUM) has had its share creations turned off. Correspondingly, the VXX has started trading at a premium to its own NAV. In this note, we answer questions about VIX markets in the context of this change.
What happened to the VXX? How does it compare with the TVIX creation halt in 2012?

VXX creations were halted and the ETN is now trading at a premium to NAV. Effective yesterday (14-Mar), new creations of shares of the VXX (iPath Series B VIX Short-Term Futures ETN) were suspended (as were creations of the OIL ETN) until further notice. As long as this suspension remains in place, the creation/redemption mechanism that typically keeps the VXX share price close to its NAV will only work in one direction: one can redeem shares for a cash payment equal to their NAV, setting up the NAV as a floor on the share price, but one can no longer create shares at NAV. This leaves the potential for the share price to exceed its NAV because of the shares’ scarcity. The closest analogue[1] to this we have seen in VIX ETP markets was the suspension of TVIX (levered long VIX ETN) creations in 2012. During that period, the TVIX share price traded as high as 90% above NAV before quickly declining down toward its NAV when creations were re-enabled. Yesterday (14-Mar), the VXX traded at a premium to NAV that ranged from 2-11% during the afternoon following the announcement. The TVIX precedent shows that the premium could grow substantially, but it could also quickly return to zero.

Does the VXX creation halt impact VIX futures and options?

Not directly, but their liquidity could be impaired. Any outstanding VXX shares continue to have their usual economics, so there is no direct impact from this on the VIX futures and options curves. Because of the important place of the large and well-known VXX in the VIX ecosystem, one secondary effect we’ll be watching is liquidity. A significant proportion of VIX futures liquidity is linked to ETP trading, so a reduction in VXX secondary share trading could lead to reduced liquidity in VIX futures and options. VIX option markets are already large relative to VIX future markets: ahead of today’s VIX expiration, the ratio of options open interest to futures open interest is as high as it has been at any recent point outside the height of COVID.

What happens to VXX options with its underlying shares unable to be created?

VXX options could have limited liquidity and may contribute to a volatile premium to NAV. A unique characteristic of the VXX is the large size of its option market relative to the size of the note itself. The VXX has outstanding options referencing six times its share count – more than double the ratio of any ETF or stock except the XRT and HYG. The VXX’s options market relies on liquidity in VXX shares to remain liquid. Following yesterday’s announcement, VXX option markets traded at wide bid/ask spreads and in small volumes in response to the liquidity challenges presented by the suspension. This Friday’s expiration will be a key one to watch for the VXX (as well as for the equity market as a whole), as it is the largest outstanding VXX expiration, with options referencing more than 150% of the VXX’s share count set to expire. Should the suspension continue through Friday, we would expect a volatile VXX premium to NAV as we approach the end of the week.
What products can investors substitute for existing VXX shares?

The VIXY ETF is comparable to the VXX ETN. As we discussed when the current VXX was first launched, the VIXY (ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF) has roughly the same underlying economics as the VXX (although it is structured as an exchange traded fund, not as an exchange-traded note), and is continuing to trade close to its NAV. Long VXX holders can sell VXX shares and buy VIXY shares for the same notional, to monetize the VXX premium while keeping the same exposure to VIX futures.

What’s the current net position of the VIX ETP market?

Long volatility – but less so than usual. The VIX ETP market has largely consisted of long volatility exposure since the 2018 VIX spike led to the closure of one major short ETP and the de-levering of a second. As volatility has risen over the past four months, investors have taken profits on long VIX positions, leaving the net long position in VIX ETPs close to its smallest net long position since 2018.

iv)swamp stories

Romney is one big jack ass.  He smears Tulsi Gabbard as a “treasononous liar” despite her telling the absolute truth.

(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

Tulsi Gabbard Smeared As ‘Treasonous Liar’ By Sen. Romney Over Ukraine Biolab Concerns

TUESDAY, MAR 15, 2022 – 08:44 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

On Sunday, former House representative for Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard released a video calling for the Biden administration to work with Russia and other parties to establish a ceasefire in Ukraine so dangerous pathogens held by US-funded biological research labs in the country could be destroyed.

Despite the undeniable evidence that there are Pentagon-linked biological labs in Ukraine, any concern about the pathogens has been labeled “Russian propaganda” by hawks in Washington. In response to Gabbard’s video, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) labeled her as “treasonous.”

“Tulsi Gabbard is parroting false Russian propaganda. Her treasonous lies may well cost lives,” Romney wrote on Twitter.

Gabbard’s video also elicited a response from Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), one of the leading proponents of the idea that the US should impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which would mean direct conflict with Russia and risk nuclear war. “Actual Russian propaganda. Traitorous,” Kinzinger said.

In response to Romney, Gabbard challenged Romney to provide evidence that what she said was not true. “Senator Romney, please provide evidence that what I said is untrue and treasonous. If you cannot, you should do the honorable thing: apologize and resign from the Senate,” she said.

Gabbard also presented evidence of the US’s involvement with Ukrainian biolabs, including a Pentagon fact sheet dated March 11 that details US funding of the facilities. The Pentagon funds labs in Ukraine through its Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). The fact sheet said since 2005, the US has “invested” $200 million in “supporting 46 Ukrainian laboratories, health facilities, and diagnostic sites.”

Gabbard’s concern about the pathogens being released in Ukraine is also shared by Pentagon officials involved with the DTRA. In a February 25 article published by the the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Robert Pope, the director of the DTRA’s Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, warned that the fighting in Ukraine could lead to dangerous pathogens being released from the labs.

Pope said some of the labs could contain biological weapons left over from the Soviet Union while insisting the facilities are not capable of developing such pathogens. According to the article, the US government has worked with 26 such biological research facilities in Ukraine. Pope and other US officials maintain that the DTRA’s work in Ukraine is meant to eliminate the threat of Soviet-era weapons of mass destruction.

It’s not clear what exactly what pathogens have been held in the labs. Russia says it has documents that show the Ukrainian Health Ministry ordered the destruction of samples of plague, cholera, anthrax, and other pathogens, although they have not been verified. But the World Health Organization bolstered Russia’s case last week by saying it advised the Ukrainian Health Ministry to destroy “high-threat pathogens” around the time Russia invaded.

Russia brought the issue of the US-funded labs to the UN Security Council on Friday, infuriating Washington. China has joined Russia in calling on the US to explain its involvement in the labs, and said the UN should properly address the issue. US State Department spokesman Ned Price said China’s position is “disturbing” and suggested any country that gives “credibility” to Russia’s claims essentially backs its invasion.

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES


END

Let us close with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter interviewing

Well that is all for today. I will see you WEDNESDAY night

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