April 5, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

April 6, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

april6, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD; $1920.50 DOWN $4.10

SILVER: $24.34 DOWN $0.09

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1925.50

SILVER: $24.44

Bitcoin morning price: $44,912 DOWN $1024

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $43,671 DOWN 2265

Platinum price: closing DOWN $20.45 to $954.95

Palladium price; closing DOWN 43.10 at $2197.60

END

EXCHANGE: COMEXCONTRACT: APRIL 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,922.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/05/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 04/07/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

072 C GOLDMAN 10104 C MIZUHO 5
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 1
132 C SG AMERICAS 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 4
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 9
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 16
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 11
661 C JP MORGAN 165 51
709 C BARCLAYS 35
800 C MAREX SPEC 1
880 H CITIGROUP 33

TOTAL: 171 171
MONTH TO DATE: 21,795

end

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comex notices/

March: JPMorgan stopped/total issued

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR APRIL. CONTRACT 171 NOTICE(S) FOR 17,100 OZ (0.5319 TONNES)

total notices so far: 21,795 contracts for 2,179,500 oz (67.791 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

6 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 30,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 720 : for 3,600,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS

AT THE SLV// A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 1.386 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 566.392 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 981 CONTRACTS TO 148,526 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.16 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.16) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 1836 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.305 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 115,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 5.005 MILLION OZ// V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS : —-455

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 4 days, total 1662 contracts: 8.310 million oz OR 2.75MILLION OZ PER DAY. (415 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 1662 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 8.310 MILLION OZ

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 8.310 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 981 DESPITE OUR $0.16 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 400 CONTRACTS( 400 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR. OF 4.305 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 115,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING: 5/005 MILLION OZ/// .. WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED 1381 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 8.174 MILLION OZ DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.

WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 30,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 61 CONTRACTS TO 560,066 AND CLOSER TO NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: + 177 CONTRACTS. (differentials are lowering in gold)

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

THE TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR GOOD SIZED LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.70//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY /.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 80.139 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.70 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD AN GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 2567 OI CONTRACTS (8.174 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2567 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 560,066.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN TINY SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2628, WITH 61 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2567 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2628 CONTRACTS OR 78.174 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2567) ACCOMPANYING THE TINY SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI 61,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2828 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 78.33 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 24,400 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 80.139 TONNES/// 3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION ///. ,4) TINY SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MARCH

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :

12,383 CONTRACTS OR 1,238,300 OR 38.51 TONNES 4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3095 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 38.51TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 38.51/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.860% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 38.51 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 981 CONTRACTS TO 148,526 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 4 1/2 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 400 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 400 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 280 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1436 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 400 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1381 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6.905 MILLION OZ,

OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS $0.16 IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.71 PTS OR .02% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 421.79 PTS OR 1.87% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 437.68 PTS OR 1.58% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.57% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3626 /Oil UP TO 103.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 107.66 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3626 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3686: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER/

A)NORTH KOREA/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 61 CONTRACTS TO 560,066 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS TINY COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $5.70 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2567 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2567 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 JUNE :2567 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2567 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2628 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2567 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A TINY SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 61 CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF GOLD $5.70.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (80.139),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 80.139

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $5.70) AND THEY WERE UBSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 8.174 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (80.139 TONNES)…

WE HAD +177 CONTRACTS ADDED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2628 CONTRACTS OR 262,800 OZ OR 8.174 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 147,946 ///poor

Confirmed volume yesterday: 155,356 contracts poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR APRIL ’22 COMEX GOLD //APRIL 6

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	2,799.690 oz Brinks 84 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	38,388.294OZ Manfra
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	106,839.704 oz HSBC
No of oz served (contracts) today	171 notice(s)17,100 OZ. 5319 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	3970 contracts 397,000 oz 12.348 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	21,795 notices2,179,500 OZ 67.791 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

For today:

dealer deposits 1

i)Into Manfra: 38,388.294.oz

total dealer deposit n38,388.294 oz//

No dealer withdrawal 0

1 customer deposits

i) Into HSBC 106,839.704 oz

total customer deposit: 106,839.704 oz //

1 customer withdrawal

ii) Out of Brinks: 2700,690 oz 84 kilobars

total withdrawals: 2700.6900 oz

ADJUSTMENTS: customer to dealer

ii) HSBC 16,011.198 oz

dealer to customer:

i) Brinks: 146,222.748 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.

For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 4141 contracts having LOST 16.

We had 260 notices filed yesterday so we gained 244 contracts or 24,400 oz will stand for delivery at the comex

May saw a LOST of 179 contracts to stand at 5000

June saw a GAINED of 2924 contracts down to 470,789 contracts

We had 260 notice(s) filed today for 26,000 oz FOR THE APRIL 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 165 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 171 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 51 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 16 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2021. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,795) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (APRIL 4141 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 171 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,576,500 OZ OR 80.139 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of APRIL.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices filed so far (21,795) x 100 oz+ (4141) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (171} x 100 oz} which equals 2,576,500 oz standing OR 80.139 TONNES in this active delivery month of APRIL.

We gained 24400 oz queue jump as our banker friends are desperate for gold.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 80.139 TONNES (A WHOPPER FOR A APRIL ( ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

191,133,764.7, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

99,258.893 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

243,923.704, oz JPM No 2 7.58 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged Brinks/27,96 TONNES

International Delaware:: 0

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold: 1,487,476.805 oz 46.27 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIG GOLD AT THE COMEX: 35,388.294 OZ (1100,73TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 18,254,596.165 OZ (567.80 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,655,266.657 OZ (549.15 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 16,167,790.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 502,886 tonnes

END

APRIL 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//APRIL 6

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	614,210.800 oz Delaware JPM
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	9752,722 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	6CONTRACT(S)30,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	281 contracts (1,405,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	720 contracts 3,600,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Brinks 1767.57 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 7985.152

total deposit: 9752.7220oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 177,110 million oz/336.920 million =52.56% of comex

i) Comex withdrawals: 2

i) Out of JPM 610,366.260 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 3844,620 oz

total withdrawal 614,210.800 oz

1 adjustments: customer to dealer

jpmorgan; 480,110.960 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 86.249 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 336.920 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF APRIL OI: 287, HAVING GAINED 20 CONTRACTS FROM TUESDAY. We had 3 notices filed yesterday,

so we gained 23 contracts or an additional 115,000 oz will stand on this side of the pond

MAY HAD A LOSS OF 861 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 100,188 contracts

JUNE HAD A GAIN OF 183 TO STAND AT 484

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 29 for 145,000 oz

Comex volumes: 46,646// est. volume today// extremely poor/

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 56,150 contracts ( fair )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 720 x 5,000 oz = 3,600,000oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (287) and the number of notices served upon today 6 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL./2021 contract month: 720 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (287) – number of notices served upon today (6) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month equates 5,005,000 oz. .

We gained 23 contracts or 115,000 oz will stand on this side of the pond.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.98 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $.70//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

APRIL 1///WITH GOLD DOWN $19.00 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $13.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD FROM MONDAY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES FROM THE GLD:INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.44

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 24/WITH GOLD UP $24.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.66 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $15.75//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSITED INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONES

MARCH 21//WITH GOLD UP $.25 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.44 TONES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $33.50: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.50//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.83 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $22.75, HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//STRANGE: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.54 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.55: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.28 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.85//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.64 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.34 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $46.10: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 8.42 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.70 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.28 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80//A MONSTER CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.38 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $42.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD UP $17.35//A HUGE CHANGE AT THE GLD: 5.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD// IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1087.30 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.386 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESETS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 6.326 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY REST AT 564.966 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.302 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 558.647 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.171 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.345 MILLION OZ

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.847 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 554.167 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.092 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/ WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.049 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLVV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 548.071 MILLION OZ

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 56 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 462,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.560 MLLION O

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY; STRANGE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.125 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLIONOZ

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.174 MILLION OZ OF FAKE SILVER.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 88 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS A 548.071 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.32 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 198,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.510 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ/

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 566.352 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

I sure looks like we are heading for a wicked stagflation: hug inflation with no growth/recession

(Peter Schiff)

Peter Schiff: America Is Heading For Stagflation

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 08:15 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Most people seem to think that tighter monetary policy will bring on a recession, but they believe that it will solve the inflation problem. In his podcast, Peter Schiff explained why they’ve got it half right. We are heading toward a recession, but it’s not going to solve the inflation problem. In reality, we’re heading for stagflation.

Inflation is a problem globally, but the only major central bank talking about fighting inflation is the Fed. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan continue to hold interest rates down and run quantitative easing, despite rising prices in both economies. And as Peter said, all the Fed is doing is talking. It won’t actually fight inflation.

Their inconsequential, tiny rate hikes are going to do anything. In fact, the only reason they’re raising rates at all is to pretend they can keep on doing it. But at some point, they will reverse course because the bond market has that right. These higher rates are going to cause a recession, and it’s not going to take that many hikes to push the economy into recession given how addicted the economy is and how overleveraged the economy is. So, once the impact on the economy and on the financial markets is felt, then the Fed is going to give up all the tough talk and inflation is going to continue to get worse.”

As Peter mentioned, the bond market is already signaling recession warnings with inversions of the yield curve. Meanwhile, bonds had their worst quarter in 40 years. And the data is starting to reveal cracks in the economy.

Construction spending disappointed, coming in 0.4% below expectation. It was up 0.5%. The expectation was a 0.9% increase. This reflects an increase in the dollars spent on construction, not an increase in construction per see. Peter said he thinks construction is slowing down due to rapidly rising costs.

What’s happening is we’re constructing fewer structures, but we are paying a lot more to construct the ones we are building, and that’s why construction spending is going up — because builders are spending more money to build fewer homes. So, again, this is not good news. This is bad news for the economy.”

And it’s only going to get worse as mortgage rates increase. Mortgage applications have already dropped as rates charted the fastest run-up since 1994.

ISM manufacturing numbers also came in weaker than expected. Manufacturing grew in March, but it was down from February. The expectation was for the ISM to come in at 59, up slightly from 58.6 in February. The actual number was 57.1.

We also got the March jobs numbers last week. Most pundits spun them as good news with the addition of 431,000 jobs and significant upward revisions the January and February. But this was largely a function of huge adjustments made by the BLS. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate dropped down to 3.6%. Of course, government numbers understate unemployment. But this is still a low number.

Most mainstream economists, particularly those at the Fed, believe low unemployment is correlated to inflation. That being the case, Peter said interest rates should be much higher.

We have a huge inflation problem, and the Fed continues to drag their feet. Even though they acknowledge that it’s a big problem, they’re doing nothing about solving it. Raising interest rates from zero to 25 basis points in the face of this huge problem is not solving it. It’s continuing to make it worse. They are throwing gasoline on a fire even though they acknowledge that the fire is burning, which again proves it’s not about inflation. The Fed knows they can’t fight inflation. But they also know they can’t admit that. So, they’re trying to solve the problem by pretending they’re fighting inflation even though they continue to create it.”

There are all kinds of reasons bandied about for rising prices. But ultimately, it is the Federal Reserve and its expansion of the money supply.

To the extent that the economy gets weaker, they’re going to try to expand the money supply even more aggressively to try to stimulate it, which is why we’re going to have more inflation during the next recession.”

All of this adds up to stagflation.

In this podcast, Peter also talks about the stock market, the dollar, the bond market and commodities.

END

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James RICKARDS/

LAWRIE WILLIAMS:

-END

–

-END-

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Interesting!! The USA has decided not to allow dollars to be paid on USA dollar denominated debt.

Thus Russia defaults@@!!

(Reuters/GATA)

U.S. stops Russian bond payments, raising risk of default

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-04-05 11:45Section: Daily Dispatches

By Megan Davies and Alexandra Alper
Reuters
Tuesday, April 5, 2022

The United States on Monday stopped the Russian government from paying holders of its sovereign debt more than $600 million from reserves held at U.S. banks, in a move meant to ratchet up pressure on Moscow and eat into its holdings of dollars.

Under sanctions put in place after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, foreign currency reserves held by the Russian central bank at U.S. financial institutions were frozen.

But the Treasury Department had been allowing the Russian government to use those funds to make coupon payments on dollar-denominated sovereign debt on a case-by-case basis.

On Monday, as the largest of the payments came due, including a $552.4 million principal payment on a maturing bond, the U.S. government decided to cut off Moscow’s access to the frozen funds, according to a U.S. Treasury spokesperson. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-cracks-down-russian-debt-payments-latest-sovereign-payments-halted-2022-04-05/

end

Russia sends in rubles for payment after the USA treasury blocked dollar use!

(zerohedge)

Russia Sends $650 Million Bond Payment In Rubles After US Treasury Blocks Dollars

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 10:50 AM

The Russian Finance Ministry may have avoided technical default on Tuesday by sending $649.2 million in rubles to satisfy bond payments, after the US Treasury on Monday banned them from making dollar debt payments from accounts at US financial institutions.

The ministry said foreign banks had rejected USD bond payments for both April maturities and coupons on notes which come due in April 2042, leaving Russia no choice but to send rubles to the National Settlement Depository. According to ministry officials, Russia “considers it fulfilled its obligations in full.”

That said, neither of the bonds allows Russia the option to pay in rubles, according to Bloomberg, raising concern among investors that a technical default could be declared after a 30-day grace period.

“The default issue is tricky,” said Abdul Kadir Hussain, the head of fixed-income asset management at Dubai-based Arqaam Capital. “Russia can claim we are willing to pay, we have the money to pay, but banks are not letting us pay. I’m not sure how the courts would handle that.”

Earlier this year, rating firms S&P Global and Fitch said they would consider Russia to be in default if they satisfied payments on notes in a different currency than the one agreed upon, leading investors to load up on credit swaps and read the fine print on around $40 billion in contracts.

Russia’s Default Swaps Signal $40 Billion Payday Is Imminent
Credit-default swaps protecting $10 million of the government’s bonds for one year were quoted as high as $7 million upfront and $100,000 annually, according to market participants on Wednesday. That implies around 87% probability of default. -Bloomberg

The last time Russia defaulted on its ruble debt was 1998, two years before Vladimir Putin assumed power.

One US Treasury insider told Business that bondholders can still get paid if Russia can find a way to send dollars without using immobilized funds in US accounts – however the Russian Finance Ministry’s announcement suggested that they wouldn’t be exploring other avenues, and would continue to pay in rubles.

I do not share his opinion on this, but there it is

(Avery Goodman)

Avery Goodman: Buy gold but only for the right reasons

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-04-05 11:57Section: Daily Dispatches

By Avery Goodman
Seeking Alpha, New York
Monday, April 4, 2022

The alternate financial “news,” such as Zerohedge, has recently been flooded with an increasing number of ridiculous articles that claim Russia has “profoundly altered the international trade and monetary system by linking the Russian ruble to gold.”

According to this muddy thinking, Russia’s announcement that it will buy gold at 5000 rubles per gram puts “a floor under the price of gold and the ruble.”

Simply put, it is a ridiculous claim that is easily refuted.

Russia’s willingness buy gold at 5,000 rubles per gram is irrelevant. It does absolutely nothing to tie the ruble to either gold or the U.S. dollar.

If the ruble sinks back down to 150 rubles to the dollar, for example, Russia’s central bank offer will be to buy gold at half of gold’s dollar price. How many people will sell gold to Russia’s central bank under those circumstances?

Only people who have a gun pointed at their heads. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4499736-buy-gold-but-only-for-the-right-reasons

end

Kinross sells its major Russian gold assets for a song: $680 million dollars to Highland Gold Mining company.

(Reuters/GATA)

Kinross Gold to sell Russian assets for $680 million

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-04-05 14:55Section: Daily Dispatches

From Reuters
Tuesday, April 5, 2022

Kinross Gold Corp is selling its Russian assets to the Highland Gold Mining group of companies for a total of $680 million in cash, the Canadian company said today, nearly a month after suspending its operations in the country.

Several companies with exposure to Russia are taking steps to comply with sweeping Western sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.

Kinross will receive $400 million for its Kupol mine and the surrounding exploration licenses and would receive a total of $280 million in cash for its Udinsk project.

Highland Gold is one of the largest gold mining companies in Russia and operates several mines in the country, including in Chukotka and Khabarovsk regions where the Kupol mine and Udinsk project are located. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/business/kinross-gold-sell-russian-assets-680-mln-2022-04-05/

END

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/

POTASH//EUROPE

Europe to deliver another shock to the agricultural sector as they plan to cap potash imports just as the planting season begins..Brilliant!

(ZEROHEDGE)

Europe To Cap Potash Imports As Planting Season Begins

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 05:45 AM

The EU is expected to deliver another shock to its agricultural sector by capping Russian imports of potash, a crucial ingredient for growing food, according to Bloomberg, citing a Dow Jones report.

The European Commission is expected to imminently unveil broad new sanctions on Russia. Much of the fertilizer is purchased from Belarus; the landlocked country in Eastern Europe could also be slapped with new sanctions for its involvement in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Potash is a key ingredient for agricultural fertilizers. Europe produces only a negligible amount of the fertilizer, and to potentially cap imports from Russia and or Belarus (top producers) seems idiotic for Europe as the spring planting season is only beginning.

Even if Europe were to rework its supply chains to import potash elsewhere, only a few other countries would export it. The impact of capping imports will send prices even higher and create fertilizer shortages for crops. This can dramatically affect crop harvests at the end of the growing season.

A handful of North American fertilizer stocks jumped on the report, including CF Industries +3% and Intrepid Potash 2%.

About 90% of potash is used as fertilizer in Europe; the rest is used to produce table salt, help slow the aging of wine, preserve canned food, and give chocolate its aroma.

Global spot prices for potash show prices continue to accelerate to the upside. This may discourage farmers from purchasing or even spread less of it during the planting season.

Even before the invasion of Ukraine, all fertilizer production in the West was declining (read: here) due to high natural gas prices. The shortage of fertilizers, not just potash, but also nitrogen and phosphates, on global markets, is inevitable. What Europe is doing to potentially cap potash imports from Russia and Belarus is idiotic and can spark a food crisis.

end

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING TODAY

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.3626

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3686

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 421.79 PTS OR 1.87%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 437.68PTS OR 1.58%

3. Europe stocks ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.42/Euro RISES TO 1.0924

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.245/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 123.86/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 103.14 and Brent: 107.66

3f Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: UP -SHORE CLOSED DOWN// OFF- SHORE UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.0.665%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 2.35% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 1.64%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.68: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 2.75

3k Gold at $1925.90 silver at: 24.24 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 1/3 in roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 82.69

3m oil into the 103 dollar handle for WTI and 108 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 122.91 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9325– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0187 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.626 UP 7 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.664 UP 9 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.74

Futures, Treasuries Tumble On Fed Tightening Fears As FOMC Minutes Loom

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 08:03 AM

There is a scene in My Cousin Vinny where Joe Pesci’s puzzled wannabe-lawyer character asks the judge if he was really serious ’bout dat.

On Tuesday and overnight, incredulous algos and 15 year old hedge fund managers had a similar question to the Fed about its market-crushing, rate-hiking intentions, after yesterday the Fed’s in house permadove and Hillary Clinton donor, Lael Brainard, shocked markets when she not only made the case for accelerated rate hikes but also a faster balance sheet drawdown after she said that curbing inflation is “paramount” and the central bank may start trimming its balance sheet rapidly as soon as May.

As a result, investors once again feared out that a more restrictive U.S. central bank could end up tipping the world’s largest economy into a downturn, or even a recession, something which is now Deutsche Bank’s base case for 2024. The virus resurgence in Asia and the war in Ukraine are also clouding the outlook for prices and growth.

“Market participants finally acknowledged that central banks are serious and will raise interest rates significantly to bring inflation rates down,” Florian Spate, a senior bond strategist at Generali Investments, wrote in a note. “We expect the selloff to lose momentum but the general trend for yields is likely to point still upwards.”

It also meant a plunge in both US stocks and bonds, and a continuation of this selloff across global markets overnight, which then fed back into US future weakness again this morning and saw tech companies lead U.S. index futures lower on Wednesday as concerns mounted over the pace of the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening and a worsening pandemic in China.

Futures on the Nasdaq 100 were down about 1.5% and contracts on the S&P 500 slid -1% with tech heavyweights among the worst performers in premarket trading. Global stocks and bonds also fell. The Stoxx Europe 600 index was down more than 1%, with travel, carmakers and tech leading declines. 10Y yields soared as high as 2.65% and a gauge of the dollar’s strength rose to a three-week peak.

Tesla, Nvidia, Applied Materials, Amazon, Alphabet, Qualcomm and Boeing were among the worst performers in premarket trading. Starbucks slipped after the company announced the ousting of its top lawyer. Here are some other notable movers:

Shares of Spirit Airlines (SAVE US) fall 2.6% in U.S. premarket, erasing some of prior day’s steep gains after the budget carrier received a $3.6 billion takeover offer from JetBlue (JBLU US) that topped a competing bid by Frontier Group. JetBlue -4.3%.
Twitter (TWTR US) slips 1.3% after two-day surge of about 30%. Elon Musk refiled the disclosure of his stake to classify himself as an active investor, making the change after taking a seat on the social media company’s board.
Array Technologies’ (ARRY US) strong order book and better-than-expected FY22 guidance were welcomed by analysts, however they also highlight margin pressure and potential impacts from an antidumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) investigation. Array gains 11% premarket.
Tech companies led U.S. index futures lower on Wednesday as concerns mounted over the pace of the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening and a worsening pandemic in China. Apple (AAPL US) -0.8%.
Gogo (GOGO US) gains 11% premarket on news that it will join the S&P Smallcap 600 Index before trading opens April 8, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
US-listed Chinese stocks fall in premarket trading Wednesday, tracking Asian peers, as a selloff in bonds pressures tech shares. The decline in Chinese ADRs follows a 3.8% drop in Hang Seng Tech Index, the most in more than a week, with Alibaba and JD.com among the biggest decliners In premarket trading, Alibaba drops 2.2%, JD.com falls 2.5% and Pinduoduo declines 2.8%; Baidu -1.6%, while Bilibili -1.2%. Among electric carmakers, Nio -2.4%, Li Auto -2% and XPeng -2.4%.

Even more hawkish surprises from the Fed may be on deck: according to Swissquote analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya, the Fed minutes expected on Wednesday afternoon may hint at a 50 basis-point hike at the next meeting. The latest comments from policy makers, surging inflation, strong jobs data and rising wages all support an accelerated tightening campaign, she said. “The market risks remain tilted to the downside,” said Ozkardeskaya. “If there is a good time for the Fed to hit the brakes on its ultra-lose policy, it is now.”

The selloff was broad based and also hammered rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising as high as 2.65%, taking it back into the ranges traded in 2018 and 2019. Money-market traders are betting on the steepest Fed tightening in almost three decades following Brainard’s comments. Sovereign debt across Europe retreated after bonds in Australia and New Zealand tumbled.

“The QE honeypot looks close to being empty now,” Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note. “I’m not sure we will get a soft landing, and nor am I sure the FOMO gnomes of the equity market will be able to continue ignoring reality, particularly if U.S. yields continue to rise.”

In Europe, automotive, travel, technology and consumer companies were the worst performers, leading declines in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index which dropped 1.5%. Delivery Hero sank 5% in Germany. Imperial Brands rose 3.1% after the U.K. cigarette producer forecast a slight increase in profit this year. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

Chr. Hansen shares rise as much as 5.5%, leading gains on the Stoxx 600 and the Health Care sub-index, after the nutritional ingredients manufacturer reported consensus-beating 2Q earnings.
Imperial Brands shares climb as much as 3.5% after the company said its FY outlook is in line with the revised guidance issued last month. It’s been a solid start to the year, RBC says.
IWG shares rise as much as 6% after the stock is raised to buy from hold at Peel Hunt, with the broker seeing multiple ways the flexible offices firm could create value.
Avio shares rise as much as 15% the most intraday in a year after the stock was raised to buy from neutral at Banca Akros after Amazon’s “massive order” for Ariane 6 launches.
Huber + Suhner shares climb to a record high after UBS upgrades to buy from neutral, citing “under-appreciated” prospects for the maker of radio- frequency and fiber-optic technology.
Semiconductor stocks lead European tech stocks lower on Wednesday as a selloff in bonds steepens amid hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard.
Among semiconductor stocks, ASML drops 3.4%, ASM International -5%, Infineon -3.7%, Nordic Semi -7.6%, BE Semi -4.8%
Royal Mail shares fall as much as 4.6%, hitting the lowest since Dec. 21, as Barclays cut its PT on the postal group to 400p from 640p with FY23 likely to be a challenging year.
Stroeer shares drop after HSBC cut the advertising firm’s rating to hold, saying the stock may find it difficult to withstand cyclical headwinds as the Ukraine war weighs on economic growth.
Avon Protection shares drop as much as 25% with Jefferies saying the protective-equipment maker’s latest update is “disappointing.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded lower across the board following the losses on Wall Street as Mainland China returned from its long-weekend. ASX 200 conformed to the downbeat tone which isn’t helped by the RBA’s hawkish hold yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 saw most of its construction and machinery-related names with losses. KOSPI was pressured by its large tech exposure. Hang Seng was also weighed on by its tech exposure as yields continued to rise overnight. The Shanghai Comp returned for the first time this week following its domestic holiday and saw less pronounced losses, with the Real Estate sector feeling relief from reports that over 60 Chinese cities ease policies on housing purchases to support the market.

In rates, the Treasuries selloff extended with the curve steepening sharply out to the 10-year sector after Tuesday’s aggressive selloff — spurred by hawkish Fed comments — was extended during the Asia session. Wednesday’s focal points include the March FOMC minutes release, expected to feature balance-sheet runoff details. Yields are higher by as much as 8bp after the 10-year rose as much as 11bp to nearly 2.66%, highest since March 2019; The 2s10s curve is steeper by ~4.5bp on the day near 7bp, while 2s10s30s fly cheapens around 5bp follows Tuesday’s 9bp jump wider; 10s30s curve spread is back around 2bp after briefly inverting for first time since 2006. Into the selloff, long-end swap spreads have widened, 10- and 30-year by 1bp-2bp.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index fades a push higher to trade flat. GBP and NZD are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, CHF and JPY underperform.

In FX, a gauge of the dollar’s strength rose to a three-week peak.

In commodities, WTI crude rose above $103 a barrel, before stalling near $104 . Worries remain that Russia’s growing isolation over the war in Ukraine may further disrupt commodity flows. Fresh sanctions on Russia are expected, including a U.S. ban on investment in the country and a European Union proscription on coal imports. Most base metals trade in the red; LME lead falls 0.7%, underperforming peers. Spot gold rises roughly $6 to trade near $1,929/oz.

Crypto markets experienced sudden selling pressure overnight with Bitcoin losing USD 45k, a level it has
acquired a foothold on during the European session

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 1% to 4,475.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 458.77
German 10Y yield little changed at 0.66%
Euro little changed at $1.0912
Brent Futures up 0.9% to $107.63/bbl
MXAP down 1.4% to 179.00
MXAPJ down 1.2% to 593.59
Nikkei down 1.6% to 27,350.30
Topix down 1.3% to 1,922.91
Hang Seng Index down 1.9% to 22,080.52
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,283.43
Sensex down 0.8% to 59,672.08
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,490.09
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,735.03
Brent Futures up 0.9% to $107.63/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,923.71
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 99.50

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Money-market traders are betting the Federal Reserve will implement 225 basis points of interest-rate hikes by the end of the year. Factoring in the hike already delivered in March, that would mean an increase of 2.5 percentage points for the whole year. The Fed hasn’t done that much tightening in one year since 1994, a famously brutal year for bond investors that even included a 75 basis-point hike
The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index fell below a measure of so-called par value Tuesday, with its price falling to 99.9 — under the key 100 level at which bonds are often sold to investors. It’s the first time since 2008 that the gauge has traded at a discount to face value
The Federal Reserve will unveil details of its likely plans to shrink its massive balance sheet with the release of minutes of the U.S. central bank’s March meeting, as policy makers confront the highest inflation in four decades
Leaving the European Central Bank to fight the current bout of energy-driven inflation alone would only work at a steep cost to society, according to Executive Board member Fabio Panetta
German factory orders fell in February, dropping for the first time in four months in the runup to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and underscoring concerns over slower growth in Europe’s largest economy
Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan approved on Wednesday a set of changes to the country’s electoral rules that would bolster his party’s prospects and consolidate the shift toward an all- powerful presidency set to be tested at the ballot box next year
The U.S., European Union and Group of Seven are coordinating on a fresh round of sanctions on Russia, including a U.S. ban on investment in the country and an EU ban on coal imports, following the discovery of civilian murders and other atrocities in Ukrainian towns abandoned by retreating Russian forces
The European Union’s foreign policy chief described a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping as a “deaf dialog,” casting doubt on how much cooperation the Asian nation will offer to end the war in Ukraine

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac markets traded lower across the board following the losses on Wall Street; Mainland China returned from its long-weekend. ASX 200 conformed to the downbeat tone which isn’t helped by the RBA’s hawkish hold yesterday. Nikkei 225 saw most of its construction and machinery-related names with losses. KOSPI was pressured by its large tech exposure. Hang Seng was also weighed on by its tech exposure as yields continued to rise overnight. Shanghai Comp returned for the first time this week following its domestic holiday and saw less pronounced losses, with the Real Estate sector feeling relief from reports that over 60 Chinese cities ease policies on housing purchases to support the market.

Top Asian News

Hong Kong Chief Secretary John Lee Resigns, Government Says
China Backs Ex-Security Chief to Lead Hong Kong, SCMP Says
Singaporeans Need $73,549 Just for Right to Buy a Car
EU’s Top Envoy Calls Summit With China’s Xi a ‘Deaf Dialog’

European bourses deteriorated further from a tepid cash open, in-fitting with the Wall St./APAC handover, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.6% Such downside was exacerbated by weak Construction PMIs and as yields continue to make further advances ahead of ECB’s Lane & FOMC Minutes. As such, the NQ -1.0% is the morning’s laggard, though price action thus far has seen the ES give-up 4500 ahead of the 200-DMA at 4484.

Top European News

U.K. Covid Cases at Highest Level as Immunity Wanes, Study Finds
Erdogan Changes Turkey’s Electoral Laws to Bolster His Rule
BNP Allows Staff in Europe to Work From Home Half the Time
Infineon, STMicro Attractively Valued Despite Softer 2023: Citi

In FX, dollar fades fast following rapid rise to fresh 2022 high post-hawkish Fed Brainard and pre-FOMC minutes – DXY reaches 99.759 before retreat to sub 99.500. Swedish Krona outperforms after latest comments from Riksbank member Floden upping the ante for a near term repo rise, EUR/SEK capped below 10.3000. Franc lags as yield and policy divergence weigh and EUR/CHF cross rebounds in a fashion that suggests official intervention, USD/CHF tests 0.9350 and EUR/CHF close to 1.0200 vs sub-1.0150 at one stage. Euro and Pound take advantage of Buck pull back and some chart support to recoup losses, EUR/USD and Cable back on 1.0900 and 1.3100 handles after dip through 1.0895 Fib and 1.3050. Yen reverses more repatriation gains as BoJ maintains YCC, USD/JPY hovering beneath 124.05 peak.

In commodities, WTI and Brent are firmer, shrugging off the tepid tone and benefitting from geopolitical premia. amid ongoing sanction announcements/ discussions. However, the benchmarks are once again in relatively thin ranges of circa. USD 3.00/bbl at present. US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +1.08mln (exp. -2.1mln), Cushing +1.791mln, Gasoline -0.543mln (exp. +0.1mln), Distillate +0.593mln (exp. -0.8mln). Gas flows via Yamal-Europe pipeline resume eastward, according to Gascade data, according to Reuters; however, subsequently reported that such flows have stopped. Spot gold/silver are modestly firmer, benefitting from the general risk tone and as the USD takes a breather from recent advances.

Central Banks

ECB’s Wunsch said the inflation target is essentially met and expects the deposit rate to be raised to zero by year end. He said the ECB’s rate could rise to 1.5-2% in the longer term, but caveat that even within the ECB there has been no discussion about raising interest rates, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Panetta says they would not hesitate to tighten policy if supply shocks fed into domestic inflation, not seeking any de-anchoring of inflation expectations. Asking the ECB to bring down high inflation in the near-term would be extremely costly.
RBA’s Deputy Governor Bullock notes Australian labour market is tight, was seeing some response in wages, with unemployment at 4.0%. Expects some revision upward in inflation forecasts; are now seeing more underlying inflation pressures.
Riksbank’s Floden says inflation will be much higher in the coming year than predicted in February. We must raise the policy rate much earlier than previously planned. Evident we must reassess and substantial adj. monetary policy plans.

US Event Calendar

07:00: April MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -6.8%
14:00: March FOMC Meeting Minutes

Central Banks

09:30: Fed’s Harker Discusses the Economic Outlook
14:00: March FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

DB Research have released a significant World Outlook document yesterday, in which we’ve updated our views on the global economy and financial markets given developments since the start of the year. In terms of the key takeaways, we’ve downgraded our growth forecasts, with an out-of-consensus view that a US recession is now the base case by the end of next year, since higher inflation will require a more aggressive tightening in monetary policy from central banks, and we now see the Fed moving much faster, with 50bp hikes at the next 3 meetings, and a terminal rate of 3.6% by mid-2023. The outlook has been further dampened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has pushed up energy prices and led to further disruption for key commodity markets and supply chains.

With the outlook moving in a more stagflationary direction, we expect growth to slow materially in the second half of 2023, tipping the US into recession by the end of that year. Indeed historically, there’s been just 2 occasions over the last 70 years when the Fed has raised rates by 300bps and left inflation on a downward trajectory without causing a recession. And as we’ve written many times in the EMR, the recent inversion of the 2s10s curve has on average preceded the start of a recession by around 18 months (see more in our recent chartbook here). Over in the Euro Area, we’re also forecasting a more aggressive tightening cycle, with the ECB raising rates by 250bps between this September and December 2023. But unlike in the US, we think Euro Area growth will be modestly above zero in the winter of 2023-24. Along with the updated call for US recession, Jim’s also expecting credit spreads to widen out by the end of next year. See the full credit update from him here.

Many of those themes we wrote about in the World Outlook were echoed in markets over the last 24 hours, with a massive bond selloff that was turbocharged by some hawkish rhetoric from Fed Governor Brainard (who’s also been nominated to become Vice Chair). Among the headlines, she said the FOMC would “continue tightening policy methodically” and would start reducing the balance sheet “at a rapid pace as soon as our May meeting.” Furthermore, she went on to say that she expected the balance sheet “to shrink considerably more rapidly than in the previous recovery, with significantly larger caps and a much shorter period to phase in the maximum caps compared with 2017-19.” Today’s FOMC minutes should give more detail about what QT may look like, which our US econ team and Tim from our team covered here. And there was also a comment that inflation was “subject to upside risks”. Brainard is typically perceived to be dovish, that the comments came from her left little doubt about the consensus of the entire committee voting bloc.

Those remarks saw market pricing shift to expect even more aggressive moves from the Fed over the rest of the year. In fact by yesterday’s close, futures were pricing in an 83% chance of a 50bps move at the next meeting in May, whilst the amount of tightening priced for 2022 as a whole hit its highest yet as well, with 220bps worth of further hikes on top of the 25bps from last month. If realised, that would be the largest amount of Fed tightening in a single calendar year since 1994, when they moved Fed funds up by 250bps, and remember that our economists’ latest forecasts now see the Fed matching that 250bps worth of hikes this year as well. Terminal rates are also repricing higher, with 1y1y OIS rates hitting their highest level this cycle at 3.17%, up from 1.11% at the start of the year.

These expectations of a more aggressive Fed led to a major selloff in Treasuries across maturities, with yields on 10yr Treasuries up by +15.2bps to 2.55% by the close, echoing the volatility in yields we saw at the start of last month as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine got underway, and marking the largest daily rise in the 10yr yield since the Covid-induced volatility in March 2020. That also marks the first time the 10yr yield has closed above 2.5% since May 2019, and the move went alongside a large rise in real yields (+9.7bps) as well, which at -0.31% put it at levels not seen since March 2020 as well. Another feature of yesterday was that the big rise in yields at the long end of the curve proved enough to un-invert the 2s10s curve, which ended the day in positive territory for the first time since last Wednesday, at 2.5bps. And this morning those moves have gained added momentum, with the 10yr Treasury up another +7.1bps to 2.62%, and the 10yr real yield up +5.8bps to -0.25%.

That selloff in Treasuries was echoed in Europe too yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds (+10.8bps), OATs (+14.9bps), BTPs (+19.3bps) and gilts (+10.7bps) all seeing similarly big rises. From Europe, one interesting point to note is that the spread of French 10yr yields over bunds widened to 54bps yesterday, which is its widest level in almost 2 years. That came amidst a broader underperformance in French assets yesterday, with the CAC 40 index losing -1.28% as the tightening polls ahead of the first round this Sunday have led to increasing doubt as to whether President Macron will win another term in office. He’s still ahead in the polls for now, but the gap between himself and his main challenger Marine Le Pen has narrowed in Politico’s polling average from a peak of 30%-17% less than a month ago to just 27%-21% now. Furthermore, the second round average is at 54%-46%, which is also significantly tighter than Macron’s 66%-34% victory over Le Pen in 2017.

US equities were also affected by the more hawkish rhetoric from Governor Brainard, and the S&P 500 fell -1.26% as investors continued to price in higher interest rates. Cyclical sectors were among the worst performers, and technology stocks lost significant ground with the NASDAQ (-2.26%) and the FANG+ index (-3.28%) both undergoing serious declines. In Europe the situation was somewhat better, although the main indices there closed before the later decline in the US, meaning that the STOXX 600 still advanced +0.19%. As mentioned however, that masked serious regional divergences, with the FTSE 100 advancing +0.72%, whilst the Germany’s DAX (-0.65%) and France’s CAC 40 (-1.28%) both lost ground.

Staying on Europe, there were further developments on Russian sanctions yesterday, with the EU proposing a 5th package of measures that would include an import ban on Russian coal, among others. Commission President von der Leyen said that they were working on further sanctions “including on oil imports”, but there wasn’t yet a discussion about banning either oil or gas, with differing opinions among the member states on such a move.

That pattern of losses has been seen overnight in Asia as well, where equity markets are trading in negative territory amidst that continued rise in Treasury yields overnight. The Nikkei (-1.89%) is leading losses across the region with the Hang Seng (-1.69%) trading sharply lower as the index reopened after a holiday. Stocks in mainland China are also struggling with the Shanghai Composite (-0.29%) and CSI (-0.52%) both down after their own reopenings following holidays, which also comes as the Caixin services PMI dropped to 42.0, its lowest level since February 2020 and beneath the 49.7 reading expected by the consensus. Looking ahead, equity futures are pointing towards further losses today, with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.04%) and the DAX (-0.41%) both falling.

Data releases took something of a back seat yesterday, but we did get the release of the final services and composite PMIs from around the world, with many European countries having upward revisions relative to the flash readings. For example, the Euro Area composite PMI came in at 54.9 (vs. flash 54.5), whilst the UK composite PMI came in at 60.9 vs. flash 59.7). The US was one of the few exceptions, where the composite PMI was revised down to 57.7 (vs. flash 58.5), and the ISM services index also came in modestly beneath expectations at 58.3 (vs. 58.5 expected), although that did mark a rebound following 3 consecutive months of declines.

To the day ahead now, and the release of the FOMC minutes from the March meeting will be one of the main highlights later. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, Chief Economist Lane, and Philadelphia Fed President Harker. Data releases include the UK and German construction PMIs for March, German factory orders for February, and Euro Area PPI for February.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

END

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/

end

CHINA/SHANGHAI/COVID

Covid cases spiral northbound as this becomes very problematic for Shi. The Omicron seems to be morphing to the XE hybrid. Most of China is vaccinated but they used their own sinopak/ stupnik vaccines of which we know nothing.

It seems that the vaccines are altering the citizens immunity badly. What scares me the most: the virus is hitting little children which has no ACE 2 receptors. How is the new virus entering the cells?

(zerohedge)

President Xi Faces An Impossible Dilemma In Shanghai As COVID Outbreak Worsens Despite Lockdown

TUESDAY, APR 05, 2022 – 10:40 PM

In the span of just over a week, CCP authorities have gone from denying plans for a citywide lockdown of Shanghai to announcing what was supposed to be a two-part staggered lockdown – to simply locking down the entire city and sending in the military and a contingent of medical workers as locals accuse the government of violating its social compact to put the people’s interests first.

Now, as the entire city of roughly 26 million faces what’s already shaping up to be the most punishing lockdown in China since the original three-month Wuhan lockdown nightmare, Nikkei reports that Beijing has found itself in an incredibly difficult position.

On Sunday, Shanghai counted 9,006 mainly asymptomatic infections, more than two-thirds of the national tally.

The reason the situation in Shanghai presents such a difficult conundrum is that backing down from its lockdown in Shanghai would mean admitting that the “Zero COVID” approach has been an abject failure.

But continuing with the heavy-handed lockdown risks spurring even more unrest – something the CCP has bent over backwards to avoid. For the CCP, it’s an impossible dilemma.

Already, social media has been flooded with reports of locals dying from neglect as hospital resources have been stretched thin (and not from COVID; it’s other ailments that are killing people now).

While the entire city has been locked down for less than a week, many individual residential compounds have been locked down for much longer – some since mid-March.

“It is so uncharacteristic of Shanghai to have to go through this,” said Zhong Lei, a teacher in the city, whose residential compound was locked down even earlier, in mid-March.

On Tuesday, authorities reiterated that they must try to keep the city’s port and its factories running at full capacity. But accomplishing this – as we have already reported – will require even more draconian measures like forcing workers to essentially live inside the city’s factories.

Here’s a rundown of some of the obstacles that have led to the surge in cases and deaths, which local authorities have been accused of obscuring and underreporting.

Experts are divided over what those costs are. Some warn of heavy economic losses, while others suggest the strict measures ensure industrial stability, not to mention saving lives. Likewise, there is division over China’s vaccination program. Authorities say nearly 90% of the population of 1.4 billion has been inoculated, a staggering feat by any measure. Yet the rate among the most vulnerable seniors lags behind, and China continues to insist on using homegrown shots despite questions over efficacy.
What seems evident is that there is no clear path for China to join the growing number of countries “living with COVID” anytime soon, which presents profound risks to China’s economy, as well as its status in global trade.
“If we stop all containment measures now, it means all the previous efforts are for nothing,” Liang Wannian, a top official at the National Health Commission, said in late March in response to a reporter’s query on why China is not shifting toward treating COVID as endemic, like influenza.
“The recent fine-tuning is an indication that the country is experimenting with a less costly – and thus more sustainable – zero-COVID approach,” Xu Tianchen, a China economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit, told Nikkei Asia.

Nikkei added that despite China’s efforts to reform and build up its health care infrastructure over the past decade, the country still faces capacity limitations. The latest available data shows the country had 3.34 registered nurses per 1,000 people, compared to 11.8 in the US. China’s health spending per capita was $459 in 2018, while US spending came to $9,054 in 2019.

Another major issue, as we mentioned above, is the low vaccination rates among seniors.

But it’s not just seniors who are vulnerable. China’s refusal to approve western vaccines in favor of its home-brewed concoctions has hurt immunity levels in the broader population. One UK health data provider in the UK estimated in March that due to the lower efficacy of China’s vaccines, less than 30% of the population is protected from infection. “Should infections hit China in the same magnitude as Hong Kong, deaths could exceed 1 million.”

If that happens, China would surpass Hong Kong as the country with the highest contemporary COVID death rate.

Unsurprisingly, economists the world over are bracing for the worst as they increasingly expect the Shanghai lockdown to lop an entire percentage point – or more – off China’s GDP growth.

end.

Shanghai residents now become to rebel as cases surge despite the lockdown. I am sure that the vaccines are causing immunity problems and this will cause major problems for the hospitals as they have no space

(zerohedge)

Shanghai Residents Rebel As Cases Surge, Lockdown Extended ‘Indefinitely’

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 07:27 AM

China’s NHC reiterated its commitment to its “dynamic” zero-tolerance policy on Wednesday as local authorities in Shanghai confirmed the worst fears of the financial hub’s approximately 26 million residents: what was initially introduced as a 9-day staggered lockdown has been extended “indefinitely” as the number of newly confirmed cases soared to a new record on Tuesday.

Authorities counted more than 13,000 new cases in Shanghai alone, more than half of the 20,000+ new cases across the entire country. According to Bloomberg, these tallies have surpassed the toll from the early days of the pandemic, when the virus was still raging in Wuhan.

To be sure, the surge in cases is partially a factor of the latest mass-testing regime, but that hasn’t stopped the CCP from imposing the most draconian lockdown since Wuhan (as we explained earlier, backing down would be an intolerable capitulation for President Xi and local authorities, whose careers are now in jeopardy due to factors that are completely out of their control).

Following an unceasing torrent of scandals, including separating COVID positive children from their parents, covering up nursing home deaths and failing to address shortages of food and medicine, the population of Shanghai has reached its breaking point.

Many have accused the CCP of violating its contract with the people. And in one particularly memorable scene, thousands of Shanghaiers took to their balconies to chant in protest, in defiance of the CCP’s lockdown strictures.

Depictions of the truly dystopian scene spread like wildfire on American social media…

…as locals chanted from their balconies, government drones responded and warned them to retreat inside and not “open their windows” (apparently a violation of the lockdown rules).

Unable to even walk their dogs, stories of locals allowing their dogs to poop and pee inside their apartments have spread like wildfire. Here’s more from Al Jazeera:

Now five days into the latest lockdown, Vicky, who prefers not to share her family name, has found herself doing something entirely unexpected: trying to convince a friend’s rescue dog, Mocha, that it is ok to go to the toilet inside her apartment.
“She is currently staring at me right now with sad puppy eyes like ‘why aren’t we going out?’ and I don’t know how to explain it to her,” Vicky told Al Jazeera by Skype. “So far, I have just tried to communicate to her that one, if you poop on the floor, I won’t be mad at you, and two, if you pee and bathroom it’s fine, I will just hose it down. It’s not a big deal.”

Shanghai reported 311 new symptomatic cases and more than 16,000 asymptomatic infections on April 5, the local government announced on Wednesday, with both measures higher than the day before. The lockdown was supposed to end yesterday, but has been extended indefinitely until authorities have had an opportunity to ‘review the data’, as China Daily reported.

As we reported yesterday, roughly 40,000 personnel (38K military and 2,000 ‘medics’) have been dispatched to the city. Many volunteers and medical workers get up early to prepare for the daily testing and other duties (while others stay up all night).

After facing a massive backlash over separating COVID positive children (some less than a year old) from their parents, local authorities have decided to abandon that policy, Reuters reports.

However, a new controversy has emerged as the government has reportedly started murdering the pets of COVID-positive individuals.

The western media has reported incidences of workers crowding on to factory floors to sleep (something we first reported more than a week ago).

Meanwhile, stories of sick Shanghaiers being denied medical care have stoked a panic among the locals, exacerbating existing fears about food shortages as millions are now being forced to rely on the government to deliver supplies.

The economic impact from the latest round of lockdowns can already be seen in the data: just last night, China’s Caixin Services PMI crashed to 42.0 in March from 50.2 in February, the largest single-month decline since February 2020.

And although authorities have done everything in their power to keep ports open, congestion surged to its highest level in recent memory in March.

ENDAs expected: CHINA’s PMI service crashes in March. This is killing their economy!!(zerohedge)

China Services PMI Crashes In March As COVID Crisis Worsens

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 12:33 AM

Activity in China’s services industry contracted sharply in March, adding to the evidence that the current COVID outbreaks and the zero-COVID-policy-based-lockdowns to control them are dealing a devastating blow to the world’s second-largest economy.

While (reported) deaths remain negligible, China’s new wave of COVID cases has hit a new record high today as CCP reports 20,472 new daily Covid cases for Tuesday, driven by surging infections in Shanghai where local officials are building the world’s largest makeshift isolation facility to help contain the outbreak there.

Problematically for China’s Zero-COVID policy, the number of cases continues to rise in Shanghai and Jilin, despite the provinces being almost impenetrably locked-down since mid-March (exposing the difficulty of halting the spread of omicron once it has deeply penetrated a population).

All of which is reflected in tonight’s report that China’s Caixin Services PMI crashed to 42.0 in March from 50.2 in February, the largest single-month decline since February 2020 (at the same scale as the sequential decline last August amid the local outbreak of delta variant in Jiangsu).

The new business sub-index fell in the services sector likely on the back of tightened restriction measures in March according to Caixin. Surveyed firms’ confidence (after seasonal adjustment) dropped on concerns over the pandemic and the Russia/Ukraine war.

As Goldman details, their proprietary Effective Lockdown Index (ELI) increased by more than ten points on average in March from February…

Price indicators suggest cost pressures persisted in the services sector. The input prices sub-index rose to 54.2 from 52.5 in February, while the output prices sub-index decreased to 50.8 from 51.4. Surveyed companies commented higher costs of raw materials, energy, food, transportation and higher Covid-related expenditures were the major drivers of rising costs, while they faced difficulties in passing through the higher costs to consumers due to weak domestic services demand amid the worsened Covid situation.

The sub-index of expectation of future output, after seasonal adjustment, fell to 58.4 in March (vs. 60.7 in February). And given the very recent surge in cases – and consequently harsher restrictions – we suspect the pain is far from over in China’s Services sector (and neither its manufacturing base). And that should be an ominous sign for the growing anxiety over global stagflation spreading virally through the world’s developed economies.

END

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

//EU/RUSSIA/SANCTIONS

New sanctions from Europe now target Putin’s daughters (brilliant move) and a new handful of useless oligarchs.

(zero hedge)

EU Targets Putin’s Daughters & Handful Of Oligarchs In Latest Round Of Sanctions

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 08:35 AM

Following yesterday’s report (later confirmed by the European Commission) that an impending fifth round of EU sanctions against the Russian economy would include a ban on coal imports, which would break the “energy taboo” (the bloc has so far been reluctant to stifle imports of Russian oil, gas and coal thanks to its dependence on these products), more details about the upcoming sanctions package have been reported Wednesday morning.

Oleg Deripaska

In addition to the proposed ban on coal imports, the sanctions package was also said to include new restrictions on the Russian banking sector and bans on certain chemical exports:

Russian vessels and trucks will also be prevented from accessing the EU, further crippling trade with Russia, the source said, adding that exceptions will be made for energy products, food and medicines.
The EU will also ban all transactions with VTB and another three Russian banks which had already been excluded from the SWIFT messaging system, the source said.
Dozens more individuals, including oligarchs and politicians, will be added to the EU sanction list, the source said.

The latest reports are chiefly concerned with this last measure. According to Bloomberg and the FT, the EU is discussing Wednesday whether to sanction Russian aluminum tycoon Oleg Deripaska (best known to Americans for his relationship with Paul Manafort, and for being targeted with sanctions by the Trump Administration which forced him to dilute his stake in Rusal), along with a handful of other executives, including Alexander Shulgin, the head of Russian e-commerce platform Ozon, Boris Rotenberg, a close business associate of President Putin, and Said Kerimov, who controls Russia’s largest gold miner Polyus, according to Bloomberg.

As for Rotenberg, a Finnish citizen, he made his fortune thanks to tenders and contracts from state-controlled oil and gas companies. He and his nephew, Igor, are set to be placed under sanctions for their close ties to Putin. Arkady Rotenberg, Boris’s brother, is already under sanctions.

The new list of individuals targeted by the EU also includes Vladimir Bogdanov, director-general of Surgutneftegas, Russia’s third-largest oil producer which accounts for about 10 per cent of the country’s crude production.

But it’s not just businessmen who are being targeted. Per the FT, Ekaterina Tikhonova and Maria Vorontsova, Putin’s daughters from his first marriage, are also being targeted for allegedly benefiting from the Russian state. Of course, sanctioning Putin’s daughters would only have “symbolic” significance, since neither of them control significant assets, as BBG explained.

If approved, those targeted by the sanctions will be subject to asset freezes and travel bans.

As far as Gref and Shulgin are concerned, the bloc’s justification for targeting them is based on their attendance at a televised meeting with Putin in the Kremlin on the day the invasion began. Ambassadors from EU member states are meeting in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss the proposal before it is officially proposed to become law.

The latest round of EU measures is also expected to include export bans worth €10bn in areas including quantum computers and advanced semiconductors, and bans worth €5.5bn, on products including wood, cement, seafood and liquor. The EU is not expected to hit Russian oil exports in the current round of sanctions, but officials are discussing ways of including the sector in future rounds of penalties.

German media reports on Wednesday suggested that the sanctions on Russian coal could be just the beginning, and that further bans on gas and oil might be possible (of course, the consequences for the German economy would be extremely dire if this were to happen).

EU Council President Charles Michel told the EU Parliament on Wednesday that “I think that measures on oil and even gas will also be needed sooner or later.” Of course, that’s much easier said than done.

When it comes to the sanctions on Russian coal, Germany’s coal importers’ group VDKi on Wednesday said the country should be able to find alternatives to Russian hard coal imports by the peak demand winter season – the only issue is that it will likely cost more, driving inflation in the bloc even higher.

END

EUROPE//POLAND/RUSSIA NUKES//

If Poland Hosts US Nukes, Russia Will Station Nuclear Weapons Along Western Border: Kremlin

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 02:40 PM

As fully expected, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday blasted Poland’s offer to the United States of its ‘readiness’ to host nuclear weapons for NATO. The recent words of Deputy Prime Minister of Poland Jaroslaw Kaczynski were widely reported this weekend.He told Germany’s Welt Am Sonntag newspaper: “If the Americans asked us to store American nuclear weapons in Poland, we would be open to it.”

“If the US were to ask us to host nuclear weapons in Poland, we would be open to this option. Such a step would enhance deterrence against Moscow,” he had said.

In fresh reaction, Peskov described that this would constitute a “serious threat” to Russia’s security. He described in the comments to French TV channel LCI on Wednesday that it would force the Kremlin to ensure its nuclear readiness is sufficient to repel the potential deployment of US nukes so close to Russia’s border.

Peskov additionally ensured it would be “inevitable” for Russia to respond in kind by sending its nuclear arms to its western borders. This would without doubt trigger a new Cold War nuclear arms standoff akin to the Cuban missile crisis.

The Kremlin official had in prior statements underscored that Warsaw has gone full-on Russophobic in following the Washington line: “In general, the stance of the Polish leadership has recently caused deep concern: the line is extremely war-like, anti-Russian, and the proposed actions [to host nuclear weapons], of course, will only exacerbate tensions on the continent,” Peskov said.

Taking note of these recent Polish discussions to host Western nukes, the international nuclear weapons watchdog group Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists issued the following statement…

“Perhaps one lesson from the war in Ukraine is that an invasion takes time, so there is no need to forward position theater nuclear weapons, for example as recently proposed by Poland.” They group expressed hope that the war will soon come to peaceful resolution, without build-up of nuclear arms on either side of the NATO-Russia standoff.

“Furthermore, forward positioning creates a use-them or lose-them pressure that makes it more likely that the nuclear threshold will be crossed early in a war,” the watchdog warned.

end

EU RUSSIA/

Why Renewables Can’t Solve Europe’s Energy Crisis

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 05:00 AM

By Irina Slav of OilPrice.com

Europe has been aggressively pursuing a clean energy future and the end of fossil fuels, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the shortcomings of renewables.
The soaring prices of key metals and the length of time it takes to implement renewable energy projects have meant Europe is turning to fossil fuels to solve its energy crisis.
The EU is planning to replace Russian gas with LNG imports, coal, and even fuel oil, with a relatively small amount of the gas to be replaced by wind and solar.

Germany is preparing for gas rationing. France’s power grid operator is asking consumers to use less electricity. In the UK, protests are breaking out over the latest electricity price hike that plunged millions of households into what one local think tank called fuel stress.

Europe has a serious energy problem…

The problem dates back years and points to a persistent complacency on the part of European governments that whatever happens, there will always be gas from Russia. After all, even during the Cold War Russia pumped billions of cubic meters of gas to European countries. Now, things are different, and it’s not just because of the war in Ukraine.

Europe has been enthusiastically trying to reduce its dependence on all fossil fuels, not just Russian gas, for a few years now. The EU recently boasted that in 2022 renewable energy sources accounted for 37.5 percent of gross electricity consumption, with wind and hydro constituting two-thirds of the total renewable energy output. Why, then, one wonders, would Germany have to brace for gas rationing and France ask its citizens to consume less electricity? Now that has a bit to do with the war in Ukraine. The war seems to have whipped EU governments – and Downing Street – into a frenzy seeking to distance themselves from Russia in every possible way, up to and including cutting Russian gas imports.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand for payment in rubles for the gas Russia supplies seems to have only increased the desire of European governments to ditch the gas, and the three Baltic states already announced they’d stopped buying Russian gas from April 1. For now, they are using gas from storage. For later, there’s either LNG arriving at the Klaipeda terminal in Lithuania or an interconnector with Poland. Lithuania is calling on the rest of the EU to follow its example. Interestingly, the Baltics do not appear to have replaced their gas dependence with wind and solar dependence.

The same is true for the rest of the European Union, too. Earlier this year, Bloomberg reported that renewables across the EU were “crowding out” natural gas. The report cited a study by environmentalist think tank Ember, whose lead author said

“These are moments and paradigm shifts when governments and businesses start taking this much more seriously. The alternatives are available, they are cheaper, and they are likely to get even cheaper and more competitive. Renewables are now an opportunity, not a cost,” Charles Moore explained.

So why the struggle for gas now? Why not really step up the construction of new wind parks and solar farms, and show Putin what Europeans are made of? This is one of the most awkward questions of current times, its answer necessarily includes references to the price of copper, steel, polysilicon, and pretty much every metal and mineral commodity. In addition to that, building these facilities takes time, more time than, for instance, switching to LNG (if you have import terminals) or coal.

Indeed, in a recently released plan to reduce the consumption of Russian gas – and oil and coal, too – the European Commission bet heavily not on wind and solar but on more gas and coal.

According to a breakdown of the plan, published by German Die Welt, the EU will seek to replace 50 billion cubic meters of annual Russian gas consumption with LNG from other sources and another 10 billion cubic meters with pipeline gas from other sources. That’s a total of 60 billion cubic meters out of the annual consumption of 155 billion cubic meters of Russian gas. Another 20 billion cubic meters, according to the plan, could be replaced by using more coal, per Industry and Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton.

This is the same Europe that has been calling for and working towards the end of coal. It is the same Europe that planned to shut down all of its coal power plants before 2030 in order to meet the Paris Agreement emission reduction targets. This same Europe is also betting on replacing natural gas with fuel oil to replace another 10 billion cubic meters of Russian gas.

In total, the European Commission seems to be planning to replace more than half of its Russian gas consumption with other fossil fuels. In comparison, wind and solar power are expected to contribute some 22.5 billion cubic meters in replaced Russian gas, with 10 billion cubic meters from wind and 12.5 billion cubic meters from solar. That’s not a whole lot for a region that is set on becoming the greenest on the planet in short order.

It seems, then, that the reality of energy supply and consumption is reasserting itself as the EU finds itself in a gas pickle. If its plan involves so much more consumption of fossil fuels, then fossil fuels must be easier – and quicker – to come by and, just maybe, cheaper, than wind and solar. Otherwise, why pick them over renewables?

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/THE WEST

NATO states that Russia is moving from the Kiev area and ready to take the Donbass

(Phillips/EpochTimes)

NATO: Russia Regrouping To Try To Take Ukraine’s East

TUESDAY, APR 05, 2022 – 05:00 PM

By Jack Phillips of The Epoch Times

Russia is likely to launch a new offensive in eastern Ukraine in the coming months, said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday, adding that NATO states are helping prepare the Ukrainian military.

“We now see a significant movement of (Russian) troops away from Kyiv to regroup, re-arm and re-supply and shift their focus to the east,” Stoltenberg told a news conference in Brussels, adding that Russia will conduct a “very special” offensive in the Donbas region.

Since 2014, separatists in the Donbas have fought against Ukrainian forces. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 22 said that Moscow would recognize the Donetsk and Lugansk separatist regions as sovereign states, just two days before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine.

Stoltenberg said it would be a new, crucial phase of Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion, which the Kremlin calls a “special military operation.”

“Repositioning of the Russian troops will take some time, some weeks,” he said, while “in that window, it is extremely important that NATO allies provide support.”

Late last month, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that its forces will pull back from Kyiv and the outlying areas as well as the Chernihiv region. Instead, according to the ministry, Moscow will try to refocus on the Donbas and areas in southern Ukraine.

Foreign ministers on Wednesday and Thursday are set to discuss how to send more anti-tank weapons, ammunition, and medical supplies to Ukraine, Stoltenberg said.A Ukrainian soldier checks a destroyed Russian tank, in Irpin close to Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 1, 2022.

Stoltenberg’s remark comes as the European Commission proposed a new package of sanctions against Russia and its leadership due to the Ukraine conflict, after Kyiv’s government accused Russian troops of massacring civilians in Bucha, near Kyiv. Russian officials have categorically denied that their forces carried out summary executions or committed war crimes, accusing Ukraine of trying to manufacture a provocation.

The new reported sanctions include restrictions on coal imports, ships, and more Russian banks. So far, European countries have avoided sanctioning Russian gas and oil amid concerns that it would trigger a widespread energy crisis across the continent.

But European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on Twitter that the bloc is working on banning oil imports now.

“We all saw the gruesome pictures from Bucha and other areas from which Russian troops have recently left. These atrocities cannot and will not be left unanswered,” she said on Twitter, referring to Ukrainian officials’ allegations of war crimes.

Germany, France, Italy, Denmark, and other countries this week announced expulsions of Russian diplomats. Russia’s government said it would respond in kind, according to state-run media.

END

UKRAINE/CZECH REPUBLIC

Ukraine receives tanks from the Czech Republic

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Receives Tanks From Czech Republic After Reports Of US ‘Quietly’ Assisting

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 04:15 AM

On Tuesday it was confirmed that Ukraine has received over a dozen Soviet-designed T-72M tanks from the Czech Republic amid a big push among Western powers to bolster Ukrainian defenses amid the continued Russian war, and as the Russians are beginning to cut off much of the east and south.

The Czech initiative marks the first time any external power has provided tanks to Kiev since the start of the Feb.24 invasion. Further, the effort to transfer tanks apparently involved the assistance of the Biden administration, as previously reported by Politico and others.

And The Wall Street Journal notes the efforts could ramp up, writing, “In a potentially even more important development, both the Czech Republic and neighboring Slovakia, which shares a border with Ukraine, are considering opening their military industrial installations to repair and refit damaged Ukrainian military equipment.”

If the program reaches that point, it would mean NATO countries getting more deeply and logistically involved right on Ukraine’s border, potentially coming closer to a direct clash with Russian forces – given the Kremlin early in the invasion warning it would target any external weapons shipments or systems.

The WSJ emphasizes this possibility by pointing out that “Russia’s campaign of missile strikes across Ukraine has targeted in particular the country’s defense industry, destroying facilities where such repairs and refitting could take place—something that makes the Czech and Slovak cooperation particularly valuable.”

Most Western countries have maintained reluctance to transfer weaponry as heavy or significant as tanks, on fears it would lead to open Russia-NATO war. As for the Czech tanks, “These weapons supplies were funded by the Czech government, and private Czech donors who have chipped in to a government-backed crowdsourced fundraising campaign to arm Ukraine,” WSJ notes further.

The program likely has Washington’s “quiet” involvement. Days ago Politico reported that “The U.S. government is reportedly set to transfer Soviet-made tanks to support Ukrainian defense efforts against continued Russian attacks in the country’s east.”

The Biden administration has in the past days repeatedly declined to comment on the widespread reporting of US involvement…

Further, “A government official in Washington told the New York Times on Friday that the decision of U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration had come as a response to requests by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to support his country’s war effort with military equipment, including tanks.”

end

The truth behind Bucha: it is a total fake

(special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us)

Larry Johnson/Son of the new American Revolution

WESTERN INTELLIGENCE DELUSIONS AND THE FAILURE OF THE BUCHA OP

5 April 2022 by Larry Johnson 10 Comment

While the Bucha propaganda op has been a swimming success in whipping up American fury at fabricated Russian atrocities (the Ukrainian Nationalist Forces have this blood on their hands in my opinion), it has not moved the needle. What is the needle? Convincing the United States, the U.K. and the rest of NATO to enter the fray in Ukraine with actual combatants and NATO operated equipment. NATO is talking tough and posturing like a model in a Madonna video, but when it comes to action–ZIPPO.

As I have noted in previous posts, NATO can send all the material it wants to Ukraine and it means nothing. First, can NATO even ensure the safe delivery of any weapons? The short answer is “no.” Russia already has demonstrated it has the ability to precisely target Ukrainian bases hugging the Polish border and wreak havoc.

Second, let us be generous and assume that the outdated NATO weapon systems get through. Who is going to train the Ukrainians how to use the NATO castaways and where will this training take place? Same problem with weapon delivery–the Russians have attacked and destroyed these training facilities over the course of the last month.

Third, lets assume the weapons are delivered and the recipients are trained; the next challenge is to get this weaponry to the front-lines to engage Russian forces. Good luck with that given Russia’s control of the air and the roadways.

And the capper is that some of the equipment NATO is proposing to provide to Ukraine is hopelessly outdated and outclassed by comparable Russian weapon systems. NATO’s proposed assistance sounds suspiciously like what happens when a suburban couple does spring cleaning and decides to sell useless junk in a garage sale. Ukraine is getting largely useless hand-me-downs.

Speaking of wasted efforts, what about the Bucha flop? Yes, I know the viewers of cable news and mainstream news are howling in anguish and outrage over the alleged Russian mass murder of civilians in the Kiev suburb of Bucha. But that is less than 30 million people in a country of 330 million. Most know nothing about it and could care less.

Are you familiar with the term, “impotent rage?” That is what the United States and its NATO allies are now experiencing. I suspect that the intel folk who helped the Ukrainians stage the Bucha massacre counted on a tidal wave of rage to push NATO into action. But that has not happened. Instead Europe has opted for more angry words and self-defeating economic sanctions.

Part of the problem with getting mileage out of the BUCHA narrative designed to portray Russia as 21st Century storm troopers is the internet. While the establishment media around the world can usually be counted on to deliver the propaganda on demand, the internet is still a wild card that can quickly outrun whatever the conventional media tries to move.

In the case of Bucha, internet sleuths quickly pointed out that the Russians vacated Bucha on the 30th of March; the Mayor of Bucha declared the city free on the 31st without one mention of slaughter; and the bodies on the street did not start showing up until the 2nd of April.

But there is one other big piece of evidence that did not appear–Social Media. I have yet to see a single reference to a social media post from Bucha dated between 30 March and 1 April that had a worried parent, spouse or sibling agonizing over a disappeared relative. Not one post about people being gunned down in the street by fleeing Russians. Not a word.

Give the Russians a pat on the back for keeping the power systems and internet intact in Ukraine. In the normal NATO invasion, destroying the power gird and taking down the internet is usually a top priority. Russia is not following a NATO script in Ukraine.

Whoops!! Looks like the masterminds overseeing this psyop forgot to paint the scenery with the appropriate social media background noise. There are some unconfirmed reports that Britain’s MI6 concocted this macabre theater with the Ukrainian service. If true, this oversight stands as a further indictment of their incompetence.

There is no sign that Russia has decided to curl up into a fetal position and sob brokenheartedly over the bad words the Western world is hurling its way. Nope. Russia continues to behave like a hungry boa constrictor and is slowly, methodically squeezing the life out of the Ukrainian military.

end

UKRAINE/ (Bucha/ China

CHINA responds to the “Bucha” killings which seems like it was a false flag opertion

(zerohedge)

China In First Response To Bucha Killings Tells West “Avoid Unfounded Accusations”

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 10:10 AM

Multiple days following Kiev alleging mass killings of civilians committed by Russian forces in the Ukrainian town of Bucha which has been driving headlines in the West, China has weighed in for the first time, also as the EU and US ratchet sanctions on Moscow over what they say are clear war crimes.

China’s ambassador to the United Nations Ambassador Zhang Jun said on Tuesday that the reports and images coming out of Bucha are “very disturbing”, but stressed that any accusations against Russian forces must be independently verified and based firmly in facts.

“Attacks against civilians are unacceptable and should not occur,” the ambassador said. “The reports and images of civilian deaths in Bucha are deeply disturbing.”

But he added a key caveat while stopping short of condemning Moscow or Vladimir Putin, stressing that “circumstances and specific causes of the incident should be verified and established” and that “all sides should exercise restraint and avoid unfounded accusations.”

And Reuters reported further his words as follows:

Speaking at a Security Council meeting, Ambassador Zhang Jun repeated Beijing’s stance that sanctions are not effective in solving the Ukraine crisis but instead they accelerate the economic spillover. He also called the United States, NATO and the European Union to engage in a dialogue with Russia.

Chinese state-run media suggested what’s widely being referred to as the ‘Bucha massacre’ in which at least 300 civilians died is a manufactured event meant to paint Russia into a corner. “An editorial in Global Times, the nationalist tabloid affiliated with party mouthpiece People’s Daily, said the incident should not be used as a pretext for inflaming the situation,” SCMP notes.

Meanwhile the European Union has implied that Beijing is being tone deaf on the Ukraine issue, with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell characterizing the latest EU summit with Xi Jinping as a “deaf dialogue”.

“China wanted to set aside our difference on Ukraine,” he said of last week’s virtual summit. “They didn’t want to talk about Ukraine. They didn’t want to talk about human rights and other issues, and instead focused on the positive things.”

China’s foreign ministry on Wednesday accused Washington of “fanning the flames” in Ukraine…

The clear allegation out of Brussels is that Beijing is showing little active interest in ending the war in Ukraine. Recently European leaders have been urging Beijing to intervene diplomatically to convince Putin to halt the invasion, which is now focused on securing Ukraine’s eastern regions.

end

RUSSIA/NATO/UKRAINE/WEST

You cannot make this up

Inbox

It has been known for a long time, that NATO troops are heavily deployed in the Ukraine across many cities and have been instrumental in teaching Ukrainians urban combat and defense and the use of civilians as deterrent to Russian forces, allowing greater losses to be inflicted. Everyone knows Ukrainians will be used to the last one as they are all expendable. A great travesty repeated as it has been in many other spheres of conflict through history. As it now starts to come the dead NATO forces on the ground, it will be more difficult to deny that this is not a confrontation directly with NATO. And this is truly alarming because a broader war can very easily escalate to being a nuclear one.

One thing we can be sure of as the situation worsens or conflict widens, there will be growing pressure within the Kremlin to escalate. One does hope that this stays a localized Ukrainian disaster and not a wider one. As it is many thousands of Ukrainians will still die or be displaced as both sides jockey for position, with the Ukraine as expendable battle ground. There are no clean hands in what has gone on in the Ukraine or even with what is now occurring. Sadly, this is a reality and travesty for Ukrainians. What complicates matters is that even within regular Ukrainian forces,Every 10th person is a committed AZOV NeoNazi imbedded to ensure fighting occurs over surrender. And even in the cauldron in the east in the Donbas, rumor is over a 1000 NATO troops ( advisors) are as isolated as are the Ukrainian forces, with no clear way out. And as previously written it is well known that NATO forces are on the ground in various cities doing what they did in Mariupol.

Numerous reports have been circulating for days claiming that United States Army Major General Roger L. Cloutier was been CAPTURED by Russian forces in or around Mariupol, Ukraine where, the reports claim, he was helping the AZOV Battalion which is Ukraine’s official NAZI unit.

According to Wikipedia, Major General Roger L. Cloutier:

Roger L. Cloutier Jr. is a United States Army lieutenant general who serves as the Commander of the Allied Land Command. Previously, he served as the Commander of the United States Army Africa.

Allied Land Command (LANDCOM) formerly Allied Land Forces South-Eastern Europe (LANDSOUTHEAST) is the standing headquarters for NATO land forces which may be assigned as necessary. The Commander LANDCOM is the prime land warfare advisor to the Alliance. When directed by the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, it provides the core of the headquarters responsible for the conduct of land operations. The command is based at Şirinyer (Buca), İzmir in Turkey.

He apparently died on the 28th of March in Mauripol or at least that is what Wikipedia says. This really means he was there and was killed in the fighting.

“NATO officers from France, Germany, Britain and “neutral” Sweden got stuck at Azovstal in Mariupol. Right now they are getting in touch with the Russian troops with a request to help them leave, to organize a corridor for the exit. – journalist German Vladimirov.” Apparently, they astutely wish to live than face the Chechen and LDNR forces who more likely would kill them as the final assault starts. LDNR forces for most part all have suffered a loss of a relative in the Donbas and have scores to settle and it reinforces why civilians interviewed in Mariupol have stated it is the Americans and Ukrainians that were killing them. War is hell and nothing has changed over centuries as there is only death and suffering.

Now, there are new reports at the time of this writing that RF forces have shot down 2 new Mi-8 helicopters in Mariupol. Someone is getting extremely desperate to evacuate some VIPs there it seems, to avoid embarrassment. The choppers were allegedly coming over the Azov sea and were shot down on approach and fell into the sea, so we’re unlikely to see crash photos this time. Unless there is proof it is rumor but clearly those NATO officers captured will prove embarrassing. As i doubt anyone will let them simply depart.

Meanwhile Russian marines and DPR troops pour in towards the final frontlines near the factories. It iis only a matter of time before the Azov guys are destroyed or they surrender. And it is likely within days of that occurring that the next phase of the Russian operation will commence.

As i have said this tragedy has a long way to go before it ends and even then it will be a travesty for the Ukrainians.

END

Very risky traversing the black sea due to many floating mines.

(zerohedge)

Floating Mines In Black Sea Threaten Grain And Oil Trade, Officials Warn

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 02:45 AM

The risk of hitting floating mines in the major Black Sea shipping route is adding to perils for the few merchant ships still sailing in the region, and governments must ensure safe passage to keep supply chains running, maritime officials said according to Reuters.

The Black Sea – whose waters are shared by Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia and Turkey, as well as the warring Ukraine and Russia – is key for shipping grain, oil and oil products. Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of laying mines in the Black Sea, and in recent days, Turkish and Romanian military diving teams have defused stray mines around their waters.

The International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF) union and the Joint Negotiating Group of maritime employers said they were trying to find ways to ensure that seafarers and their vessels don’t become “collateral damage in the continuing conflict in Ukraine”.

“We strongly urge governments to do all in their power to mitigate the threat and secure the safe passage for vessels trading near these conflict areas,” said David Heindel, chair of the ITF Seafarers’ Section.
“It is essential that the world’s seafarers can continue to perform their duties safely and keep global supply chains moving.”

Two seafarers have been killed and five merchant vessels hit by projectiles – which sank one of them – off Ukraine’s coast since the start of the conflict, shipping officials say.

“The information available points to a clear threat to shipping and seafarers from floating and drifting mines in areas of the Black Sea,” said a spokesperson with UN shipping agency the International Maritime Organization.

NATO’s Shipping Centre said in an updated advisory on April 4 that there were ongoing searches by national authorities for “mine-like objects” and that “the threat of additional drifting mines cannot be ruled out.”

Last month, the insurance industry’s Joint War Committee widened the high-risk area of waters around the Black Sea and Sea of Azov to include areas close to Romania and Georgia, which has contributed to underwriters raising premiums. read more

“If it transpires that there are significant numbers of live mines that exceed littoral state abilities to contain them, then JWC will move to reassess the listed areas,” the Committee said in a separate note on March 31.

END

/USA/IRAN

end

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE

ISSUES/GLOBAL ISSUES//ORIGINS OF COVID 19//COVID 19

end

GLOBAL ISSUES

end

VACCINE MANDATES/

VACCINE INJURIES//

Numerous Health Problems More Likely Due To COVID-19 Vaccines Than Coincidence: VAERS Data Analysis

TUESDAY, APR 05, 2022 – 09:40 PM

Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times,

Various health problems reported by people after receiving one of the COVID-19 vaccine shots are more likely caused by the vaccines than being merely coincidental, according to an analysis of data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).

VAERS has been flooded with more than a million reports of various health problems and more than 21,000 death reports since the introduction of the vaccines in late 2020. Some experts and public officials have downplayed the significance of the reports, noting that just because a health problem occurs after getting the shot, it doesn’t mean it was caused by it.

A deeper analysis of the data, however, indicates that many of the adverse effects are more than just a coincidence, according to Jessica Rose, a computational biologist who’s been studying the data for at least nine months.

“The safety signals being thrown off in VAERS now are off the charts across the board,” she told The Epoch Times.

There are multiple ways to parse the data in order to flush out whether the causal link between an adverse event and the vaccination is real or illusory. For example, the vaccines usually come in two doses. A random adverse event unrelated to the vaccine should be dose agnostic. A stroke randomly coinciding with a vaccination shouldn’t be picky about which dose it was. In the VAERS data, however, a number of the reported problems are dose-dependent. Myocarditis in teenagers, for example, is reported several times more often after the second dose than after the first one. Following a booster shot, in contrast, the frequency is significantly lower than after the first dose, Rose found.

*A graph showing age against absolute number of* *myocarditis reports filed to VAERS according to doses 1, 2 and 3 of the COVID-19 vaccines. (Jessica Rose)*

Other researchers and health authorities have already acknowledged that the shots are associated with an elevated risk of myocarditis, especially in teenage boys, though they usually also say the risk is low.

Yet dose-dependency shows up in the VAERS data for other problems too, including fainting and dizziness, which are more common after the first dose.

Rose acknowledged that statistical analysis seldom provides definitive answers. There could be, for instance, some unknown factor that leads to more reports of unrelated health events after the first or second shot. In her view, however, the data leans away from such a conclusion. Previous research showed that the majority of VAERS reports are filed by medical staff, who shouldn’t fail to report adverse events based on which dose is being administered. To Rose, it seems more likely that if people suffer health problems after an injection of a novel substance and if the problems substantially change between the first and the second shot, the substance probably had something to do with it.

“In lieu of being able to explain this happening for any other reason, it satisfies the dose-response point quite well, in my opinion,” she said of the myocarditis results.

As for why the reports dropped after the “booster” shots, she said she hasn’t found a definitive explanation. It could be that people who didn’t feel well after the first two shots would think twice about getting more. As such, those most at risk for an adverse reaction would be less likely to get the booster.

Rose arrived at the results after she evaluated the VAERS data from the perspective of the Bradford Hill criteria—a set of nine questions that are used by epidemiologists to determine whether any given factor is likely the cause of an observed health effect.

She said she found evidence to answer positively all of the questions.

Rose has encountered resistance in the establishment science circles when she first tried to publicize her analyses. Last year, right before her paper on VAERS myocarditis data was printed, the publisher pulled the paper for unclear reasons.

end

Autoimmune attack

Inbox

Revealed: 7 in 10 ‘Vaccinated’ CDC Employees Got COVID | GreenMedInfo

Inbox

What was the point?
https://greenmedinfo.com/blog/revealed-7-10-vaccinated-cdc-employees-got-covid

VACCINE IMPACT

42,507 DEAD 3,984,978 Injured Following COVID Vaccines in European Database of Adverse Reactions

April 5, 2022 4:53 pm

The European (EEA and non-EEA countries) database of suspected drug reaction reports is EudraVigilance, verified by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), and they are now reporting 42,507 fatalities, and 3,984,978 injuries following injections of four experimental COVID-19 shots. From the total of injuries recorded, almost half of them (1,843,512) are “serious” injuries: “Seriousness provides information on the suspected undesirable effect; it can be classified as ‘serious’ if it corresponds to a medical occurrence that results in death, is life-threatening, requires inpatient hospitalisation, results in another medically important condition, or prolongation of existing hospitalisation, results in persistent or significant disability or incapacity, or is a congenital anomaly/birth defect.”

Mask Wearing Has Left a Generation of Toddlers Struggling With Speech and Social Skills

April 5, 2022 7:10 pm

Lockdown restrictions, including adults wearing face masks, has left a generation of babies and toddlers struggling with speech and social skills, according to an official report. Inspectors working for Ofsted found that infants being surrounded by adults wearing face masks for significant periods of time over the last two years has damaged their learning and communication abilities. Those turning two “will have been surrounded by adults wearing masks for their whole lives and have therefore been unable to see lip movements or mouth shapes as regularly,” the report found. “Some providers have reported that delays to children’s speech and language development have led to them not socialising with other children as readily as they would have expected previously,” it added. The restrictions also left toddlers struggling with crawling, using the toilet independently and making friends. Delays in learning had also regressed some children to the stage where they needed help with basic tasks such as putting on their coats and blowing their noses. “I’m particularly worried about younger children’s development which, if left unaddressed, could potentially cause problems for primary schools down the line,” said chief inspector Amanda Spielman.

Michael Every

Michael Every on the day’s major topics

Rabobank: All Global(ization) Institutions Are Struggling To Define Their New Roles

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 09:35 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Too much math, not enough polymath

We start, of course, with Ukraine. Despite talk of more G7 sanctions on Russia today, there is growing recognition that they cannot prevent Russia pivoting its fight towards eastern Ukraine, the West will instead need to supply far more, and far more powerful armaments than it has so far. In other words, escalation. Moreover, a far longer war than many had been hoping, which will have larger consequences for markets.

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Peru, and Lebanon are all also seeing various states of instability, and the EU is to cut off billions of euros in funding to Hungary in response to the recent election victory of populist Orban, perhaps by the end of the year. The US is floating new permanent military bases in Romania, Poland, and the Baltics, even if there will not be permanent US troop deployments. To repeat, this is a long-run crisis.

Even EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell is now a hawk, stating to the European Parliament tonight that last week’s EU-China Summit: “…was not exactly a dialogue, maybe a dialogue of the deaf… we could not talk about Ukraine a lot, and we did not agree on anything else. China… didn’t want to talk about Ukraine,… human rights and other stuff and instead focus on positive things. The European side make clear that this… compartmentalisation isn’t feasible… for us Ukraine is the defining moment on whether we live in a world governed by rules or by force. We condemn Russian aggression against Ukraine and support this country’s sovereignty, democracy, not because we follow the US blindly, as sometimes China’s suggests, but because it is our position… China cannot pretend to be a responsible great power but close its eyes or cover its ears when it comes to a conflict that obviously makes it uncomfortable… because it knows very well who the aggressor is, although for political reasons, refuses to name them.”

On commodities, Wall Street is stepping back from metals trading, hardly a surprise given the volatility. There are also suggestions the EU could form a single entity to buy its gas to lower costs and prevent countries being played off against each other. Put that together with China’s plans for one national board to buy iron ore and it points to what has been flagged here before: more politicised, more national-security focused, more price-controlled or barter-based global commodity trade and trading. Where does that leave the global trading houses? And imagine if, as I doubt, we then move to a world of commodity-backed currencies.

Indeed, all global(ization) institutions are struggling to define their new roles. The US just stated it does not see Russia being kicked off the US Security Council(!) Yet that doesn’t mean the UNSC can function in a polarized world: we’ve been here before, both with the UN and its predecessor, the League of Nations. Likewise, who listens to the WHO? How about the WTO? Or the IMF? And, as sabres are rattling and hotdogs everywhere threaten to cost nearly as much as they did at the last in-person Davos, the WEF tweets: ‘Venus was once Earth-like, but climate change made it uninhabitable. #Space #ClimateChange’. Is this science or science fiction? One thing it isn’t is relevant for a realpolitik geopolitical world.

That isn’t a charge one can level US Trade Representative (USTR) Tai, who is misrepresented by Bloomberg as saying, ‘US Isn’t Seeking a ‘Divorce’ From China’. She said that; but also that she has given up on China ever shifting from its mercantilist model that damages the US; and she is going to push for policies to rebalance trade on US terms and rebuild its industrial base. Unstated was that the only logical ways to do so are more tariffs, industrial policy, and/or capital controls. So ignore the headline disingenuously implying that trade wars are over in an era of Cold War and hot war for the algos that decide what stocks are worth. The opposite is true.

Central banks have little grasp of what is unfolding around them, from inequality to populism, inflation to war, and linked shifts in the financial architecture. It’s ironic given they were set up specifically to finance wars, and the industrial development to allow countries to win them. It’s hard to see how their roles will stay the same ahead: but they are trying hard to pretend that they will.

The RBA just gave a hint it might have to raise rates from 0.1% in the face of global inflation, booming Aussie commodity exports, and such ridiculous building approvals and house-price data that either the economy is on fire, or the credibility of the Australian Bureau of Statistics is in tatters. (And both can be true at once.) The Aussie 10-year yield now stands at 2.93%, up from 0.61% back in 2020, while 2s, nearer to the lifeblood of the Aussie economy, mortgage debt, is at 2.04%, again nearly all the way back to the 2018 levels prevailing before the RBA started to cut rates.

The PBOC might be under pressure to ease after China’s services PMI came in at 42.0 vs. the ridiculously optimistic 49.7 consensus. However, it is constrained by the US policy direction given it wants to keep CNY stable to keep inflation under control.

The Fed is yelling it is going to tighten: uber-dove Brainard not only backed hikes, but a rapid QT, so Fed balance sheet reduction. The US yield curve leaped higher on that news, US 2-year yields up 12bp from their intraday low, and another 3bp higher in Asia this morning to 2.56%, while 10s were up 18bp from their low, and were at 2.59% at time of writing. So, the curve disinverted – and yet the US 30-year fixed mortgage rate just went above 5% for the first time since 2011, which will hit housing and the economy hard. Indeed, the irony is just as the Fed has the policy bit between its teeth, the logistics industry that called higher inflation last year now says consumer demand is crumbling due to higher prices. In short, steepening won’t last long: but you won’t like the flattening.

As The Hill reminds us ‘Nobel economists were dead wrong on inflation: Don’t expect an apology’, and: “Last September, as the Build Back Better legislation was being considered in Congress, many members worried about the inflationary pressure of injecting an additional $2.4 trillion into the economy on top of the $4.1 trillion committed to the American Rescue Plan and the Cares Act. When it looked like the Democratic majority might include enough deficit hawks to scuttle the bill, Nobel Laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz rounded up another 16 of the 36 living American Nobel Prize economists to declare, in an open letter, that whatever upward pressure on prices all this new money might bring there was no threat of inflation.”

Inflation hawks are now saying destroying final demand is the only way to deal with supply-side inflation that acts as de facto taxation. Notably, neither the Stiglitzians nor the hawks say structural supply-side inflation can only be addressed by the structural arguments of the USTR.

A few market strategists are now trying to pivot from central bank plumbing to geopolitical supply chains to explain what is going on. However, that territory is a far steeper (learning) curve than the ones they are used to, and most are sticking to their models – and exactly the same market calls. Equally, we don’t have polymath economists who understand realpolitik and war at central banks due to institutional inertia. Hence they will be guided wrongly.

Today’s Fed minutes are likely to confirm that view.

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA

AFRICA//COVID/VACCINE

African union surprisingly refuses to buy more vaccines from Moderna

(zerohedge)

African Union, Covax Refuse To Buy More Vaccines From Moderna As Demand Plummets

TUESDAY, APR 05, 2022 – 11:20 PM

Get ready for another wave of COVID fearmongering as Big Pharma tries to push a second (then a third, then a fourth…) booster dose as demand wanes (even as scientists warn about a new hybrid mutant strain).

Moderna shares are tumbling on Tuesday after two of the world’s most critical supranational bodies representing low- and middle-income countries have decided not to purchase hundreds of millions of additional doses of the company’s vaccine as a result of waning demand.

The African Union and Covax, the Bill Gates and WHO-backed group dedicated to spreading (low cost) vaccines across the world, made the decision to pass on buying more jabs (while the US rolls out a second booster for older patients) as developing nations struggle to find enough customers eager to be inoculated.

Of course, it’s not just demand that’s keeping vaccination numbers low: According to Bloomberg, developing nations have struggled to turn supplies into inoculations. Lower-income countries left behind in the global rollout are now grappling with a lack of funds, hesitancy, supply-chain obstacles and other factors that are hampering distribution.

Source: Bloomberg

But outside of China and Hong Kong, COVID cases, deaths and hospitalizations have waned dramatically. This in turn has undermined demand.

What’s more, after more than a year of getting the short end of the stick from Western vaccine makers, developing nations have become resentful, as more consumers take the view that, if they have made it this far without the jabs, then they certainly don’t need them now.

“The vaccine landscape has changed drastically in recent months,” said Safura Abdool Karim, a public-health lawyer and researcher in Johannesburg who’s focused on equity in the pandemic. “We went from really needing vaccines super urgently to now having them.”

While the African Union agreed to purchase 50 million doses during Q1, the organization opted not to acquire another 60 million doses in the second quarter.

Covax, meanwhile, opted not to buy 166 million doses for delivery in Q3, and also turned down another alternative for 166 million doses in Q4. Although a spokesperson for the organization said talks for another round of purchases have continued to drag on.

Africa has the world’s lowest immunization rate, with only 15% of the continent’s population counted as fully vaccinated. That’s compared with a global average of 57%, the WHO said last month. Only about 400 million of the more than 700 million doses Africa has received have been administered, leaving hundreds of millions of doses to rot on the shelves.

end

INDIA/USA/RUSSIA

USA warns India faces significant long term costs if it aligns with Russia

(zerohedge)

US Warns India Faces ‘Significant Long-Term Costs’ If It Aligns With Russia

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 12:45 PM

Given that a handful of countries that rank among the top largest economies in the world have thus far been reluctant to firmly condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this could prove the significant monkey wrench in US-EU plans to severely isolate and wreak havoc on global Russian exports.

Among these include the obvious – China, but also there’s India, the UAE, Brazil and Indonesia. India for example – standing just behind the UK as the 6th largest economy – remains the the single largest buyer of Russian weapons. India is also reportedly seeking more discounted Russian oil, in what looks to be a potential move away from Saudi crude.

In early March, The New York Times noted that India was among those countries dependent on many Russian imports that’s attempting to “stay above the fray”. “When India abstained from a United Nations vote and the chorus of Western condemnation against the Ukraine invasion, it appeared to be taking sides: offering tacit support for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia,” the Times emphasized previously.

And now Washington is putting New Delhi on notice that it faces ‘significant costs’ should it become aligned with Russia, and as a major export destination allowing Putin to side-step sanctions effects.

The Biden administraiton’s Director of the National Economic Council of the United States Brian Deese has said the US remains “disappointed” with aspects of the Indian government’s reaction to the Ukraine crisis.

“There are certainly areas where we have been disappointed by both China and India’s decisions, in the context of the invasion,” he said a Wednesday event in D.C.

He was cited as saying in Bloomberg:

The US has told India that the consequences of a “more explicit strategic alignment” with Moscow would be “significant and long-term,” he said.

India has so far rejected falling in line with the West’s anti-Russia sanctions, instead continuing to import Russian oil, which remains at an estimated 2% of its total oil imports.

As NBC News reviewed of recent visits of top Washington officials to New Delhi:

A flurry of visits by Russian and Western diplomats is unlikely to change India’s neutral stance on the war in Ukraine, experts say, particularly since the war has the support of a public being bombarded by media coverage that blames the U.S. for the conflict.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has meanwhile praised the Modi government for the avoidance of adopting a merely “one-sided view” of the conflict in Ukraine.

On Tuesday, White House Press Secretary issued statements demanding that fence-sitting countries urgently conform to US and European sanctions measures. “We don’t believe it’s in India’s interest to accelerate or increase imports of Russian energy and other commodities,” she said directly addressing New Delhi in the press conference. She stressed that “every country should abide by the sanctions that we [ the U.S.] have announced and that we’re implementing around the world.

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0924 UP .0018 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED

USA/ YEN 122.91 UP 0.111 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3136 UP 0.0024

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 0 .71 PTS OR .02%

Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 421.79 PTS OR 1.87%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.57% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 437.79 OR 1.87%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.71 PTS OR .902%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .57%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 437.68 PTS OR 1.55%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1921.60

silver:$24.17-

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 99.42 DOWN 6 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.57% UP 7 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.245% UP 3 AND 4/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.67%// UP 7 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.33 DOWN 33 points in basis points yield ./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 105 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.660% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.70% AND NOW ABOVE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0908 UP .0002 or 2 basis points

USA/Japan: 123.81 UP .147 OR YEN DOWN 15 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3172 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN 33 BASIS pts to 1.2517

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.3599

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3664

TURKISH LIRA: 14.74 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.245

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.598% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.632 UP 6 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.53 UP 7 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 26.02PTS OR 0.34%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 272.670 POINTS OR 1.89%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 146.68PTS OR 2.21%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 142.20PTS OR 1.64%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 513.02 PTS OR 2.06%

WTI Oil price 103.24 12: EST

Brent Oil: 106.95 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 82.55 UP 1 3/4 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.642

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0895 DOWN .0011 OR down 11 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3067 down .0009 or DOWN 9 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 123.79 up 0.132//YEN DOWN 13 PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2532 UP .0047 (CDN dollar DOWN 47 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 96,67

Brent OIL: 101.73

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.611 up 6 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.632 UP 6 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.74

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE: 83,50 DOWN 3/4 ROUBLES (ROUBLE UP 3/4 ROUBLES/USA )//

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 144.67 PTS OR 0.42%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 321.75 PTS OR 2.17%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.10 UP 1.07PTS (5.01%)

GLD: 179.66 UP 0.42 PTS OR 0.23%

SLV/ 22.37 UP .21 PTS OR 0.94%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Fed’s ‘Volcker Moment’ Slams Bonds, Stocks, Crypto, & Crude

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 04:00 PM

The big headline from today was the mainstream media ‘finally’ getting the joke that we first warned about weeks ago… that The Fed needs to crash the market to slow/stop inflation. Former NYFed boss Dudley explained it to Bloomberg readers:

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NrZWxldG9uX2xvYWRpbmdfMTMzOTgiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiY3RhIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zcGFjZV9jYXJkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1511717521111629828&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Ffeds-volcker-moment-slams-bonds-stocks-crypto-crude&sessionId=c7d495f1dc1d824b17831360a38fe11b7ba3290d&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=836e1d2f08d05%3A1649226201925&width=550px

Which was then confirmed by The Fed Minutes showing fear that they may lose the public’s confidence in their resolve to battle inflation if they don’t act aggressively.

While bonds are broadly priced for The Fed’s rate/QT trajectory, stocks definitely are not and today’s reaction, building on yesterday’s weakness, showed it off (even with dip-buyers trying to rescue things). Nasdaq was hardest hit and The Dow the least lame horse in the glue factory today…

On the week, Small Caps are the biggest loser (-3.5%).

All the US majors broke or are at critical technical levels with the S&P battling at its 200-day moving average…

After the market melt-up in the second half of March – as negative delta (hedges) were unwound en masse – cyclicals have tanked relative to defensives as reality sets in on The Fed’s hawkish path ahead…

Source: Bloomberg

Is it catch-down time?

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were mixed today with the short-end flat while the long-end sold off further (2Y -1.5bps, 30Y +6bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve has un-inverted (2s10s now +10bps), which is the actual trigger signal for imminent recession (as opposed to the inversion itself)…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably there was no major shift in rate-hike or rate-cut expectations post-Fed-Minutes (9 hikes and 3-4 cuts priced in)

The Ruble extended its rebound back above pre-invasion levels (Yellen brushed it off as not real for some reason)…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was clubbed like a baby seal once again with Bitcoin back below $44k, hovering around the post-invasion-spike high levels…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar surged up to the FOMC day spike highs today after the Minutes confirmed the hawkish bias…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the day unch…

WTI tumbled back below $100…

And finally, the good news – if things stay this way – is that gas prices may just drop a bit… but they remain up dramatically since Biden’s term began…

Source: Bloomberg

And the SPR release is actually driving up prices in mid-term months as it’s going to need to be refilled at some point…

Source: Bloomberg

But that would be after the Midterms!

END

I) /MORNING TRADING/

FOMC …..

FOMC Minutes Signal Bigger, Faster-Than-Expected QT, Multiple 50bps Hikes

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 02:04 PM

Since March 16th’s FOMC Statement, and The Fed’s rate-hike, US equities have soared (giving some back in the last couple of days) and bonds have been battered…

Source: Bloomberg

And thanks to the extreme level of hawkish jawboning, the market’s expectations for rate-hikes in 2022 have soared from 6 more to 9 more (with 82% odds of a 50bps hike in May)… and at the same time, rate-cut expectations for 2023/24 have soared from just over 1 cut to more than 3…

Source: Bloomberg

And the yield curve has collapsed (with 2s10s swinging into inversion and back out – the latter the real signal for an imminent recession)…

Source: Bloomberg

The big thing everyone is watching for in today’s Minutes is just how aggressive the balance-sheet reduction is going to be after Brainard’s comments suggested far faster-and-furiouser a contraction than anyone hoped for (an active ‘sell-down’ vs passive ‘run off’) because Powell specifically said at his Q&A that he is “sure there’ll be a more detailed discussion of our [B/S reduction] in the minutes.”

The Minutes were more hawkish than expected ($60-90 billion per month expected):

Participants generally agreed that monthly caps of about $60 billion for Treasury securities and about $35 billion for agency MBS would likely be appropriate. Participants also generally agreed that the caps could be phased in over a period of three months or modestly longer if market conditions warrant.
Participants reaffirmed that the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings should be reduced over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the SOMA. Principal payments received from securities held in the SOMA would be reinvested to the extent they exceeded monthly caps.
Several participants remarked that they would be comfortable with relatively high monthly caps or no caps.

As expected, FOMC says runoff focus should be on coupons, not Bills:

Participants discussed the approach toward implementing caps for Treasury securities and the role that the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury bills might play in the Committee’s plan to reduce the size of the balance sheet. Most participants judged that it would be appropriate to redeem coupon securities up to the cap amount each month and to redeem Treasury bills in months when Treasury coupon principal payments were below the cap.

FOMC also considered selling agency MBS after rolloff is well underway:

Participants generally agreed that after balance sheet runoff was well under way, it will be appropriate to consider sales of agency MBS to enable suitable progress toward a longer-run SOMA portfolio composed primarily of Treasury securities.

On preference for 50bps rate hike:

“Many participants noted that—with inflation well above the Committee’s objective, inflationary risks to the upside, and the federal funds rate well below participants’ estimates of its longer-run level—they would have preferred a 50 basis point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting“

BUT 25 won for now because…

“A number of these participants indicated, however, that, in light of greater near-term uncertainty associated with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they judged that a 25 basis point increase would be appropriate at this meeting. Many participants noted that one or more 50 basis point increases in the target range could be appropriate at future meetings, particularly if inflation pressures remained elevated or intensified.”

* * *

AFTERNOON

END

II)USA data

end

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iiia) USA inflation//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

The nightmare to the Fed : yield curves inverting all of the place. Now we have the 30 yr yield almost equal to the 10 yield.

(Carson/)

Yield-Curve Inversion At Low Interest-Rate Levels “Is A Nightmare For The Fed”

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Joseph Carson, former chief economist at AllianceBernstein,

Curve Inversion At Low Levels of Interest Rates Is Problematic For the Fed & Finance Not the Economy

The inversion of the two-year and ten-year yields creates more problems for the Fed and the financial markets than for the economy.

That’s because the yield curve inversion has occurred at a relatively low level of interest rates, far too low to slow final demand and squash inflation pressures.

History shows that yield curve inversions offer an accurate negative view of the economy’s future path only when accompanied by a level of interest rates that prove prohibitive. In the past, restrictive interest rates were when the federal funds rate and market rates equaled or exceeded the growth in nominal income.

Notably, that is not the case today. On the contrary, it’s the exact opposite. A record gap exists between Nominal GDP growth of 10% in the past year and the current fed funds of .5%. There is even a record spread between Nominal GDP and two and ten-year yields of around 2.5%.

Yield curve inversion at low-interest rate levels is a nightmare for the Fed.

Past experiences dealing with cyclical inflation pressures tell the Fed that it needs to increase the cost of credit to slow final demand before it can successfully dampen inflation pressures.

Take a look at the current trends in the housing market. Mortgage rates have moved above 4% for the first time since 2019. Yet, borrowing costs for a house purchase still are attractive given that house prices are rising close to 20% a year, people’s house prices expectations remain at double-digit levels for the foreseeable future, and wages for most workers are growing close to 7%. In other words, money is still too cheap to slow housing demand and house price inflation.

If the bond market is not responding to high reported inflation by marking up yield levels because it believes the inflation cycle will die or it trusts the Fed to bring it under control, that puts added pressure on the Fed to act more aggressively. And, as the Fed lifts official rates to dampen final demand growth and quell inflation, it will encounter market and political backlash of triggering more curve inversion.

A sustained inversion between fed funds, nominal GDP, and market rates may occur as policymakers attempt to bring inflation to their 2% target. After a decade (2010 to 2020) of a near-zero federal funds rate as policymakers tried to hit its 2% price target, investors will encounter of much different and higher cost of credit landscape.

One key takeaway is that high-multiple growth stocks which have outperformed value stocks for the past decade should see a ‘reversal of fortune” in the next decade.

iiib) USA economic stories

iv)swamp stories

John Durham, Michael Sussmann, And The Broader Clinton Conspiracy

TUESDAY, APR 05, 2022 – 05:40 PM

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

There was a flurry of filings in the Michael Sussmann case late yesterday. Here’s the latest.

On September 19, 2016, DNC/Clinton Campaign lawyer Michael Sussmann met with FBI General Counsel James Baker, where Baker was provided with data and “white paper” purporting to show covert communications (since proven to be bogus) between Russian Alfa Bank and the Trump Organization.

Special Counsel John Durham has just provided evidence that the night before – on September 18, 2016 – Sussmann sent Baker this text:

As it turns out, Sussmann was billing the Clinton Campaign for his work on the Alfa Bank hoax. This text from Sussmann to Baker is damning for Sussmann’s case, proving Sussmann’s efforts at deceiving a top official at the FBI about his clients, and demonstrating how Sussmann tried to convince Baker he was there to supposedly do the right thing.

Notes (produced by Durham) taken by Assistant FBI Director Bill Priestap and former FBI Deputy General Counsel Trisha Anderson – taken in their conversation with Baker after his Sussmann meeting – help corroborate Baker’s recollection of Sussmann’s lies:

In this filing, Sussmann seeks to preclude the use of these notes, arguing they hearsay not subject to an exception. (It also confirms that Priestap has testified before a grand jury – something we posited back in January.) Durham disagrees and argues they are admissible, and Durham likely wins this dispute.

Sussmann also asks the Court to order the Special Counsel to give Rodney Joffe immunity for his testimony – or have the case dismissed.

Of course, Joffe (Tech Executive-1 in the Sussmann indictment) is the Sussmann client who helped lead the effort to manufacture the Alfa Bank/Trump hoax. Sussmann maintains that Joffe would “offer critical exculpatory testimony on behalf of Mr. Sussmann” – but cannot because Durham is “manufacturing incredible claims of continuing criminal liability for Mr. Joffe that are forcing Mr. Joffe to assert his Fifth Amendment right.”

That’s a long way of saying that Joffe faces real (and perhaps imminent) criminal exposure. Let’s talk about that for a moment. The bad news for Joffe is good reading for us.

The April 1, 2022 letter from Joffe’s attorney to Sussmann’s attorney. In this letter (available here – with my highlights), Joffe’s counsel confirmed that Joffe “remains a subject” of the Special Counsel’s investigation. According to Andrew DeFilippis (from the Office of the Special Counsel), Joffe’s “status in the investigation was sufficient to establish a good faith basis to invoke the privilege against self-incrimination.”

To this statement, Joffe’s attorney responded that the statute of limitations had run since the events described in the Sussmann indictment. The Special Counsel disagreed, stating that “certain fraud statutes have longer than a five-year limitations period,” and the Russian Yota phone-related allegations (given to the CIA in February 2017) “percolated through various branches of the government and around the private sector after that date, in various forms.”

Sussmann’s attorney argues that Joffe would provide favorable testimony, including:

Sussmann and Joffe agreed that the information should be conveyed to the FBI and the CIA to help the government.
The information was conveyed to the FBI to provide a heads-up that newspaper outlets were going to publish a story about links between Alfa Bank and the Trump Organization.
The researchers and Mr. Joffe himself held a good faith belief in the analysis that was shared with the FBI, and Mr. Sussmann accordingly and reasonably believed the data and analysis were accurate.

Again, Sussmann likely loses on this front.

And While this gives us information on the Sussmann/Joffe relationship, it also gives an insight into Sussmann’s anticipated defense at trial. Unfortunately for Sussmann, there are powerful rebuttals to these points, most notably that the Sussmann/Joffe team was pushing the Alfa/Trump story to the press in the first place; the researchers’ doubts about the Alfa/Trump “evidence”; and how Joffe was in communications with Fusion GPS.

This Sussmann filing also mentions Durham’s “discriminatory approach to immunity in this case.” The motion continues, stating that one witness has immunity – and that the Special Counsel is considering granting immunity for a second witness.

This leads me to ask: who has immunity? It’s tough to tell from this filing, but I’m guessing it was someone associated with Joffe or the Alfa Bank research project – perhaps “Researcher-2”, who was identified as David Dagon.

There is a smaller (but not immaterial) chance it was DNC/Clinton lawyer Marc Elias himself. After all, Elias has testified before a grand jury and Durham has this to stay about the potential for Elias’s testimony at trial (identified as Campaign Lawyer-1):

And who is the person the Sussmann defense “understands” might be given immunity? I’m guessing it’s Christopher Steele.

Let me explain. In yet another filing, Sussmann implores the Court to prevent three categories of evidence/argument from being admitted at trial: (1) The gathering of the Alfa/Trump data; (2) The accuracy of the Alfa/Trump data; and (3) Christopher Steele (Fusion GPS) and the Steele Dossiers.

According to Sussmann’s attorneys, the Special Counsel “produced witness statements for Mr. Steele pursuant to 18 U.S.C. § 3500, presumably because the Special Counsel seeks to call Mr. Steele as a witness at trial.”

I’m thinking it is unlikely Steele gets called as a witness. I think it’s more likely that Steele’s witness statements were produced by Durham as a part of general discovery, and that Sussmann’s attorneys are outright speculating at the intent of the Special Counsel with respect to Steele. Thus the imprecise language (“presumably” and “understands”).

Finally, the allegations of conspiracy.

Durham states the “evidence of a joint venture or conspiracy” will establish that Sussmann and Joffe “worked in concert with each other and with agents of the Clinton Campaign to research and disseminate the Russian Bank-1 allegations.”

That statement from Durham leaves us with an important question: which “agents of the Clinton Campaign” were involved in this conspiracy?

END

The King Report (including swamp stories)

Let us close with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter interviewing Bill Holter
https://usawatchdog.com/petro-ruble-takes-down-dollar-drives-up-gold-bill-holter/

Petro-Ruble Takes Down Dollar & Drives Up Gold – Bill HolterBy Greg Hunter On April 5, 2022 In Market AnalysisNo CommentsBy Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com Precious metals expert and financial writer Bill Holter said that at the end of last year, both the lies and money printing were going to get much worse. Holter predicted, “The risk for a meltdown from these levels, the risk has never been higher or could be higher than it is right now. You have got everything going in the wrong direction. . . .” Fast-forward to today, and you see huge inflation, economies wrecked and Russia demanding payment for oil and gas in rubles. Holter explains, “This is the biggest news since 1973 when oil started being backed by the U.S. dollar. There is nothing bigger. Understand, Gaddafi (Libya) did this. Saddam Hussein (Iraq) talked about the gold dinar, or a gold backed currency, and what happened? They got killed, and their countries got invaded and their gold stolen. This time is different because you are not going to have the U.S. military go into Moscow, depose Putin and steal their gold. . . . From a Russian standpoint, they are selling Russian goods, they want to be paid in rubles and they want to buy gold. . . . They are not provoking a war, and they are not provoking the west, but they have created a currency war between the ruble and the dollar. What happens with the arbitrage is the world does the dirty work by making a profit if western gold is too cheap. It’s brilliant.”So, the dollar will get creamed in buying power? Holter says, “It’s already getting creamed in buying power. This will ultimately affect all financial markets. It’s going to affect credit markets. Don’t forget, the dollar is a creation of credit. . . . This is basically a natural way of destroying a financial Ponzi scheme. . . . All Putin is saying is I want what’s best for Russia. We are going to sell our goods, we want to be paid in our currency and we are making it real by basically backing it with gold. We want real and fair settlement. . . . In what world would anyone have imagined that it was the ruble that took the dollar down? That’s what it looks like is going to happen.”Holter says get ready for extreme financial problems in the not-so-distant future. Holter warns, “I think we are headed for a calamity in the very near future. . . . I think, at this point, it’s a coin flip that we do or don’t go through a Mad Max world for a spell. Is that spell a week, two weeks, two months or more? I don’t know. I do fully expect disastrous times. . . . This is going to be 2008 on steroids.”Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter of JSMineset.com for 4.5.22. (There is much more in the 48 min. interview)(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)https://usawatchdog.com/petro-ruble-takes-down-dollar-drives-up-gold-bill-holter/
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