APRIL 25:VICIOUS RAID TODAY ON ALL OUR PRECIOUS METALS: GOLD DOWN $36.80 TO $1896.10//SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TO $23.64//PLATINUM DOWN $12.50 TO $918.65//PALLADIUM DOWN $44.00 TO $21.46//COMEX GOLD DROPS A BIT ON STANDING AS WE HAD ANOTHER EFP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING: 81.987//SILVER STANDING RISES BY ANOTHER QUEUE JUMP TO 6.745 MILLION OZ//YOUR IMPORTANT READING MATERIAL TODAY: EDWARDS (JAPAN SECTION)//COVID UPDATES RE SHANGHAI AND THE GLOBE//VACCINE IMPACT//CHINA’S ECONOMY FALTERING RE THE LOCKDOWNS WHICH WILL CREATE MASSIVE FOOD SHORTAGES//CHINA ALSO HAS A MAJOR WATER PROBLEM//NOW BEGIN HAS MAJOR COVID CASES TO DEAL WITH//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE VS THE WEST UPDATES//GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWS CLIF HIGH: A MUST VIEW/COMEX EXPIRY TOMORROW//LBMA AND OTC EXPIRY FRIDAY//

April 25, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

april25, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1896.10 DOWN $36.80

SILVER: $23.64 DOWN $0.69

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1898.35

SILVER: $23.62

Bitcoin morning price:  $38713 DOWN 897

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $40,088 UP 398

Platinum price: closing DOWN $12.50 to $918.76

Palladium price; closing DOWN 44.00  at $2146.30

END

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comex notices/

: JPMorgan stopped/total issued   13/37

EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: APRIL 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,931.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/22/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 04/26/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 1
132 C SG AMERICAS 8
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 34 13
709 C BARCLAYS 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 3
880 H CITIGROUP 4


TOTAL: 37 37
MONTH TO DATE: 25,768



NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL. CONTRACT 13  NOTICE(S) FOR 1300 OZ  (0.1150  TONNES)

total notices so far:  25,768 contracts for 2,576,800 oz (80.149 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

21 NOTICE(S) FILED 105,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  1343  :  for 6,715,000  oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $36.80

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS

AT THE SLV// A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.031 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 579.418 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED  8245 CONTRACTS TO 155,474   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG   $0.57 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.57) AND WERE   UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS  AS EVEN THOUGH WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 5590 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. ALL OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO CONTINUAL  SPREADER LIQUIDATION//TAS IN SILVER TODAY.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.305 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP  OF 65,000  OZ//NEW STANDING: 6.745,000 MILLION OZ//  V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/(ALL THE LOSS DUE TO SPREADERS)

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : —-4109

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 16 days, total 16,931  contracts:  84.655 million oz  OR 5.28 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1058 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 16,931 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 84.655 MILLION OZ 

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 84.655 MILLION OZ (LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE NOW LOATHE TO ISSUE EFP’S)

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC  SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 8245 WITH OUR STRONG  $0.57 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.  WITH ALL OF THE LOSS DUE TO   SILVER SPREADER LIQUIDATION TODAY.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 2655 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR. OF 4.305 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 65,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING: 6.745MILLION OZ///  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 5590 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 27.950 MILLION  OZ WITHTHE  STRONG LOSS IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 21  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 105,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1791 CONTRACTS  TO 568,150 AND  FURTHER FROM NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  -3134 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE  SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF $13.40//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY /.AS IN SILVER WE MUST  HAD  HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 78.33 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE //FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S EFP JUMP TO LONDON OF 1600 OZ//NEW STANDING 81.989 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF   $13.40 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 1053  OI CONTRACTS (3.275 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED  2844 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 568,150.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1053, WITH 1343 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2844 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1053 CONTRACTS OR 3.275 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2844) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1771,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  1053 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 78.33 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1,600 OZ EFP JUMP TO LONDON //NEW STANDING 81.987 TONNES///  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX  OI. LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

APRIL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :

36,548 CONTRACTS OR 3,654,800 OR 113.67  TONNES 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2284 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 113.67 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  113.67/3550 x 100% TONNES  3.21% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  113.67 TONNES (THIS IS GOING TO BE A LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 8245 CONTRACT OI  AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 2655 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 2655  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 4136 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2655 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS OF 5590 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 27.955 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.57 IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

.

end

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 158.41 PTS OR 5.13% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 769.18 OR  3.73%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 514.48 PTS OR 1.90%        //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.51%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.5740    /Oil DOWN TO 97.18 dollars per barrel for WTI andDOWN TO 101.23 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5510 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5320: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER//

a)NORTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1771 CONTRACTS TO 568,150  AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS OF $13.40 IN GOLD PRICING FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2844 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE   ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2844 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 JUNE :2844 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2844 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED  TOTAL OF 1791 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2844 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 1053  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF GOLD $13.40

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL   (81.984),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 81.984

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $6.80) AND  BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE  REGISTERED A GOOD SIZED GAIN  OF 13.023 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (81.984 TONNES)

WE HAD —3134 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1053 CONTRACTS OR 105,300 OZ OR 3.275TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 232,173/// fair/raid

Confirmed volume yesterday: 192,043contracts  poor/raid

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR APRIL ’22 COMEX GOLD //APRIL 25

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz237,407.504 oz
Manfra
Brinks
Delaware
Loomis
includes10 kilobars
and 9  kilobars
Delaware and Loomis
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz12,995.592OZ
Delaware 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today37  notice(s)
3,700 OZ
0.1550 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)590 contracts 59,000 oz
1.835 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month25,768 notices
2,576,800 OZ
80.149 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz


For today:

dealer deposits  1

i)Into dealer Manfra:  12,995.592 oz

total dealer deposit  12,995.592   oz//

No dealer withdrawals

4 customer withdrawals

i) out of Brinks 195,934.390 oz

ii) out of Delaware: 96.453 oz 3 kilobars

iii)Out of Loomis: 289.359 oz (9 kilobars)

iv) Out of Manfra:  76,862.805 oz

total customer withdrawals  233,407.504 oz

0 customer deposits

total customer withdrawal: 237,407.564  oz /

ADJUSTMENTS:   one//dealer to customer

i) Out of Brinks: 289.359 oz (9 kilobars)

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.

For the front month of APRIL we have an  oi of 627 contracts having LOST 67 contracts

We had 50 notices filed yesterday so we LOST  17 contracts or an additional  1700 oz will NOT stand for delivery at the comex , as they were EFP’d to London. No gold over here for the crooks

May saw a LOSS of 151 contracts to stand at 3143

June saw a LOSS of 6258 contracts DOWN to 459,075 contracts

We had 37 notice(s) filed today for  3700  oz FOR THE APRIL 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  34 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 37 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and   13 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 1  notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (25,768) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (APRIL 627  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  37 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,635,800 OZ  OR 81.984 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of APRIL. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices filed so far (25,768) x 100 oz+   (627)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (37} x 100 oz} which equals 2,635,800 oz standing OR 81.984 TONNES in this   active delivery month of APRIL.

We LOST 1600 additional oz that will NOT stand for delivery on this side of the pond AS THESE GUYS WERE EFP’D TO LONDON.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  81.987 TONNES  (A WHOPPER FOR AN APRIL ( ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

191,133,764.7, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

99,258.893 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

243,923.704, oz  JPM No 2  7.58 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged  Brinks/27,96 TONNES

International Delaware::  0

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold:  1,887,433.936 oz                                     58.70 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIG GOLD AT THE COMEX: 35,950,353.100  OZ (1118,20 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 18,387,366.763  OZ (571.92 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,366,986.637 OZ  (540.18 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,469,553.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  481.47tonnes

END

APRIL 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//APRIL 25

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,240,878.172  oz
Brinks
CNT
Delaware
JPMorgan
Loomis
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory150,292.900 oz CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)39CONTRACT(S)
195,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)6 contracts (30,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1343 contracts 6,715,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposit into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil      oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT: 150,292.900 oz

total deposit:  150,292.900    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 173.825 million oz/333.749 million =52.06% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 5

i) Out of CNT 93,275.002  oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan  600,350.500 oz

iii) Out of Brinks 25,166.30 oz

iv) Out of Delaware  3953.00 oz

v) Out of Loomis: 518,093.320 oz

total withdrawal 1,240,878.172    oz

0 adjustments:  

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 85.811 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 333.789 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF APRIL OI: 27, HAVING LOST 26 CONTRACTS FROM THURSDAY.  We had 39 notices filed yesterday,

so we GAINED 13 contracts or an additional 65,000 oz will  stand on this side of the pond

MAY HAD A LOSS OF 9914 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 32,266 contracts

JUNE HAD A GAIN OF 31 TO STAND AT 1353

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 21 for 105,000 oz

Comex volumes: 90,979// est. volume today//  strong//good indicator of spreader liquidation/

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 99,250 contracts (  strong/spreader liquidation )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1343 x 5,000 oz = 6,715,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (27) and the number of notices served upon today 21 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the APRIL./2021 contract month: 1343 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (27)  – number of notices served upon today (21) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month equates 6,745,000 oz. .

We GAINED 13  contracts or an additional 65,000 oz will  stand on this side of the pond 

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

APRIL 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES 

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT IF 6.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.36 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $11.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.44 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A  DEPOSIT OF 11.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.42 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $26.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 //A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1090.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP $7.70: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1088.75 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.98 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $.70//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

APRIL 1///WITH GOLD DOWN $19.00 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $13.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD FROM MONDAY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES FROM THE GLD:INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.44

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 24/WITH GOLD UP $24.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.66 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $15.75//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSITED INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1104.13 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.031 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS : STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING DEPOSIT OF 3.508 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.449 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.955 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .461 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY…//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.986 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.447 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS : A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.676 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 831,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS :NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.386 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESETS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 6.326 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY REST AT 564.966 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.302 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 558.647 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.171 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.345 MILLION OZ

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.847 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 554.167 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.092 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 579.418 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

The Quick And Dirty On Inflation

MONDAY, APR 25, 2022 – 11:00 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The inflation freight train continues to barrel ahead. Not only are consumer prices at historically high levels; producer prices continue to run ahead of CPI, casting some doubt on the “peak inflation” narrative in the mainstream.

Despite the fact that inflation has been running hot for over a year, the mainstream pundits, government officials and central bankers can’t seem to nail down what’s going on. First, they said printing trillions wouldn’t cause inflation. Then they called inflation transitory. They said it was the pandemic. They pointed their fingers at supply chains and “excess demand.” Now they’re blaming Putin.

The problem is the mainstream won’t come to terms with the real underlying cause of rising prices. Mises Institute President Jeff Deist gives a quick and dirty breakdown of the inflation problem.

The following article was originally published by the Mises Institute. The views expressed are the author’s and don’t necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

All of a sudden everyone is an expert on inflation. Your brother-in-law, your local paper, and even dilettantes at dubious outlets like the Washington Post or The Atlantic feel compelled to explain our current predicament. With the admitted rate of consumer inflation running somewhere around 8 percent, and the real rate much higher, even central bankers can’t hide the reality from us. So the commentariat has to explain to us why this is happening and make sure we blame the mysterious workings of capitalism for our troubles.

In other words, economics is back. Covid was a nice diversion, and Ukraine took up all the media’s oxygen for a few months. But now we must deal with the economic devastation caused both by lockdowns and two years of crazed fiscal and monetary policy. Every day Americans, stubborn as they are, care more about rising gas and food prices than the political class would like. So they trot out Nancy Pelosi to explain how government spending actually reduces inflation and push pseudoeconomic ideas like modern monetary theory to explain why more federal spending is always the cure.

But what is really happening?

  • First, consider the two covid stimulus bills passed by Congress in 2020 and 2021. These pumped more than $5 trillion directly into the economy in the form of payments to government, payments to households, unemployment benefits, employer payroll loans, cash subsides to airlines and countless other industries, and a host of grab-bag earmarks which had nothing to do with covid. This new money injected itself straight into the veins of the daily economy.
  • Second, supply chains remain degraded because politicians around the world didn’t think through their lockdown policies. The deeply interconnected global economy does not have an ON/OFF switch. Idle resources and idle workers don’t simply spring to life and produce goods and services on command. But our policy makers have no conception of a structure of production, its temporal elements, or the ravages of malinvestment created by their political decision to shutter businesses.
  • Third, covid allowed the Fed to justify yet another spasm of “extraordinary” monetary policies beginning in March 2020. This gave central bankers an easy out, in a sense, because real trouble was already on the horizon back in September 2019. The repo market, which commercial banks use for short-term (overnight) financing of their operations, suddenly seized up and sent rates spiking. These paroxysms embarrassingly forced the Fed to inject billions of dollars into its “standing” (i.e., permanent) repurchase facility and to consider yet another round of QE (asset buying) even after it had promised to shrink its balance sheet, still bloated with the detritus of the 2007 crisis.

All of this happened before any of us had heard of covid. But the obvious question last fall, screaming to be asked, was this: How on earth, after more than a decade of aggressive asset purchases by the Fed (swelling the central bank’s balance sheet from less than $1 trillion in 2007 to more than $4 trillion by 2019), did commercial banks still experience a liquidity crunch? What the hell was the point of all that money?

But covid washed away any question about repo and silenced any critics of the Fed’s largesse. Covid had to be defeated, by God, and monetary policy would lead the way. So the Fed went into hyperdrive, buying trillions in additional assets to send its balance sheet soaring to nearly $9 trillion today—adding nearly 20 percent of all dollars ever created to the M2 money supply measure in 2020 alone.

That same year, with lockdowns firmly in place and a crisis mindset whipped up by both parties, Congress managed to spend almost twice what the Treasury collected in taxes ($3.4 trillion in revenue versus $6.5 trillion in outlays). How is such an arrangement possible? Given historically low rates of return on Treasury debt—well below real inflation—and given the almost unbelievable and irreversible profligacy of the spendthrift US government, why would any sentient being continue to loan money to Uncle Sam? Why would anyone help Congress continue its debt-financed orgy? Why lend America money?

The answer is complex, ranging from the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency to pension and sovereign wealth funds around the globe that hold US Treasurys by charter and even the relative strength of America’s military forces. The question is thus as much geopolitical as economic. But in short, the world knows the Fed will always be there as a ready backstop, to buy US debt when appetites for such debt waver. Propping up congressional deficit spending, juicing equity markets, and constantly recapitalizing commercial banks are the Fed’s true mandates.

How does inflation end? Only with pain in the form of a necessary corrective recession or depression. Congress must slash spending, the Fed must stop buying assets and stop tampering with interest rates, and existing US debt must be allowed to mature and roll off the Fed’s balance sheet. We should force the US federal government to sell assets, especially land, to pay off Treasury obligations and fund future Social Security and Medicare entitlements. And if necessary, the federal government should be forced to default or apply a haircut to Treasury investors, who, after all, took a risk like any investor.

If all of this sounds politically impossible, you understand the deep unseriousness of today’s politics.

END

2.LAWRIE WILLIAMS//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARDS/

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: All fall down – except the dollar.

The past week certainly ended in disappointment for investors in precious metals, equities and bitcoin, all of which saw big falls in price as the week drew to a close and opened weaker still in Asia and Europe this morning. The downturn appeared to be precipitated by market fears in the U.S. that the Fed might be about to ‘overtighten’ at the early May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting due to take place on May 3rd and 4th, potentially leading to at best a mini-recession.

Quite why precious metals prices were so badly affected puzzles us – we might have speculated that this kind of negative equity price movement could even have seen them rise. However the likely above average interest rate rise scenario so envisaged did see an increase in the U.S. dollar index (USDX) = which values the dollar against other world currencies – and there is always a tendency for gold, in particular, to fall when the dollar rises, and vice versa, with the other precious metals following suit.

It is the inflation ‘big bad wolf’ which is causing the price mayhem. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at a massive 8.5% increase year on year earlier in the month and the Producer Price Index (PPI) which perhaps even better reflects the prices actually being received by suppliers at an even more worrying 11.2% year on year. There are worries that these figures may still be rising so the April data releases are being awaited with some degree of trepidation.

The next significant inflation data release is due out on Friday this week and is the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, and tends to come in a couple of percentage points lower than the CPI. The last PCE data announcement showed this measure of inflation rising at 6.4% year on year, but this, like the other inflation data was at its highest level for more than 40 years. Indeed if the data was still being calculated in the manner it was 40 years ago, all these inflation figures would actually be far higher. John Williams’s ShadowStats service which calculates U.S. government data the way it was in the past before it was manipulated lower in order to justify reducing social security payments among other things, puts the current CPI at approaching 20% – a level that would perhaps be more attuned to the experience of the person in the street.

What has to be particularly worrying for the Powell Fed is that when the inflation rate strayed into double digits just over 40 years ago, the remedy from then Fed chair Paul Volcker was to implement moves taking U.S. interest rates to around 20% and thereby precipitate a very severe recession. This ultimately had the effect of defeating inflation and setting the U.S. economy on an upwards path that has run now for decades. There’s no way Powell can do this, given the enormous cost of servicing the nation’s enormous debt level (estimated at over $30.4 trillion or around 125% of the nation’s GDP) built up over the past several years, at higher interest rate levels!

The kind of interest rate rises available to the Fed without disturbing the U.S.’s continuing economic growth are thus extremely limited, and if the Fed’s judgment on this is wrong it could precipitate either a recession if its inevitable rate increases are seen as being too high by the markets, or continuing runaway inflation if rises are too low. This is a very fine balancing act and we would rate the Fed’s chances of getting it right at probably 50:50 or less. And even if it can raise rates slow enough so as not to spook the markets, any inflation reduction will likely take an inordinate amount of time – maybe a couple of years or more to come back to the Fed’s target 2% rate. A marginal miscalculation either way could put the whole process in jeopardy, and let’s face it the Fed does not have a great record on economic forecasting to date.

25 Apr 2022

A very important read! Pam and Russ Martens

Fed Chair Powell Telegraphs the Perfect Storm for Wall Street’s Megabanks: Rapid Rate Hikes Hitting $234 Trillion in Derivatives

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 25, 2022

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the central bank of the United States. It sets monetary policy, including control of the benchmark short-term interest rate known as the Federal Funds rate, or in Wall Street jargon, the “Fed Funds” rate. This is a key rate because it signals the rate at which overnight loans are made between financial institutions and the direction of interest rates in general.

Unfortunately, over time, the Fed has also been granted a supervisory role by Congress over Wall Street’s megabanks alongside its ability to bail them out when its crony brand of supervision fails. There was an epic failure in the Fed’s supervision of the Wall Street megabanks in the leadup to the 2008 financial crash and the September 2019 repo blowup. In both cases, the Fed made trillions of dollars in cumulative loans at below-market interest rates to the trading units of these megabanks in order to resuscitate them and cover up its own failure to properly supervise the banks.

The convulsions the stock market experienced last Thursday and Friday, that investors will continue to witness in the days ahead, are inextricably tied to the failure of Congress to strip the Fed of a supervisory role over these global megabanks.

There is no better snapshot of the Fed’s failure as a banking supervisor than this one fact that is called out every quarter in the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s Report on Bank Trading and Derivative Activities. Table 14 of this report (see page 19) shows that the 25 largest bank holding companies in the U.S. are sitting on $234 trillion notional (face amount) in derivatives but just five bank holding companies are responsible for $200.18 trillion of that exposure or 86 percent of the total. Those mega bank holding companies are: JPMorgan Chase (ticker JPM), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC).

The table also clearly shows that the most dangerous form of these derivatives – the same credit derivatives that blew up Wall Street in 2008 – are also concentrated at those same five bank holding companies.

But here’s what this quarterly report – or any other federal supervisory report – does not tell the public. It does not provide the names of the financial institutions that are on the other side of those derivative bets. To ferret out those names, one has to do independent research and watch stock market action. (More on that in a moment.)

Last Thursday, the delicate dance that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been doing with Wall Street’s ticking derivatives time bombs, out-of-control inflation, and the Fed’s tardiness in raising rates spilled out during a panel discussion moderated by CNBC news anchor Sara Eisen. Present on the panel were the following: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde; International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva; Federal Reserve Chair (Pro Tempore) Jerome Powell; the Finance Minister of Indonesia, Sri Mulyani Indrawati; and (virtually) the Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley. (Powell is serving as Chair Pro Tempore because he has yet to be confirmed for his second term as Fed Chair by the full Senate.)

The exchange that sent the stock market plunging went as follows between Eisen and Powell:

Eisen: “The market has three 50 basis point hikes coming at the next three meetings as of this morning. Is that reasonable?”

Powell: “So, I try not to comment on specific market pricing for things, but I will just say this: at our last meeting – and this was in the minutes of the meeting – many on the committee thought it would be appropriate for there to be one or more 50 basis point hikes.”

Eisen: “Were you one of those people?”

Powell: “I don’t disclose my own path. I try to lead the Committee. So, I think markets are processing what we’re saying; they’re reacting appropriately – generally. But I wouldn’t want to bless any particular market pricing. The thing I want to say, though, is we really are committed to using our tools to get 2 percent inflation back and I think, for example, if you look at the last tightening cycle, which was a two-year string of 25 basis point hikes from 2004 to 2006, inflation was a little over 3 percent. So inflation’s much higher now and our policy rate is still more accommodative than it was then. So it is appropriate in my view to be moving more quickly.

“And I also think there’s something in the idea of front-end loading whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate. So that points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table certainly.

“We make these decisions at the meeting and we’ll make them meeting by meeting but I would say that 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting.”

You can watch the full exchange at this link. The above back and forth between Eisen and Powell begins at 9:33 on the video.

By the closing bell on Thursday, April 21, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 368 points on Powell’s remarks. The market reflected further on those remarks and plunged by another 981 points on Friday, April 22, for a total two-day wipeout of 1,349 points in the Dow.

The mega banks that are known to have the bulk of the derivative exposure were hit hard in the selloff on Friday, as was the German global bank, Deutsche Bank, which is known to be a counterparty to derivatives on Wall Street. Also reported to have derivative exposure to Wall Street are insurance companies AIG, Metropolitan Life (MET), Prudential Financial (PRU), Ameriprise Financial (AMP) and Lincoln National (LNC). The chart above shows how the stocks of these financial institutions performed in Friday’s selloff.

3.  Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

LME abandons its attempt to crack the gold/silver market

Bloomberg/Spence/GATA

London Metal Exchange abandons attempt to crack gold market

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-04-22 13:26Section: Daily Dispatches

By Eddie Spence
Bloomberg News
Friday, April 22, 2022

The London Metal Exchange will abandon its attempt to break into precious-metal trading after just five years, citing low trading volumes in its gold and silver contracts.

The LME — the world’s biggest exchange for industrial metals — partnered with banks including Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley in 2017 to launch the contracts. London is one of the two major centers of precious-metals trading, where trillions of dollars in gold, silver, and associated derivatives change hands each year. It’s an almost entirely over-the-counter business, dominated by top bullion banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and HSBC Holdings.

The LME’s project sought to move the trade onto an exchange comparable to the Comex in New York, providing more transparency over pricing. Initially it met with some success, but volumes dropped steeply after Societe Generale — one of the LME’s original partners — closed most of its commodity trading business in 2019.

The LMEprecious service is expected to be withdrawn on or about July 11, the exchange said in a notice to members. It took the decision “following discussions with market participants, and in light of the low levels of trading activity within the LMEprecious market.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/lme-to-end-gold-and-silver-contracts-after-5-years-on-low-volume

END

EU admits rouble payments for Russia’s gas might not breach sanctions

(London Telegraph/GATA)

EU admits rouble payments for Russia’s gas might not breach sanctions

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-04-22 20:55Section: Daily Dispatches

By James Warrington and Giulia Bottaro
The Telegraph, London
Friday, April 22, 2022

By James Warrington and Giulia Bottaro
The Telegraph, London
Friday, April 22, 2022

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/22/ftse-100-markets-live-news-earth-day-sustainable-development/

The European Union admitted that countries may be able to comply with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand for gas payments in roubles without breaching sanctions against Russia.

Putin has demanded that so-called “unfriendly” nations open accounts at sanctioned lender Gazprombank, where payments in euros or dollars would be converted into roubles.

The European Commission has refused to comply with the order and initially said doing so would fall foul of sanctions. It has now backed down on this claim, although the bloc said it wasn’t clear how such a procedure would work.

It came as the UK issued a temporary licence allowing payments to Gazprombank for gas used in the EU until the end of May.

end

Payment in gold earns big discounts on Russian oil.  This is a must view

(GATA/Andrew Maguire/Kinesis)

Payment in gold earns big discount on Russian oil in London trading, Maguire says

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-04-23 21:20 Section: Daily Dispatches

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In this week’s “Live from the Vault” program from Kinesis Money, London metals trader Andrew Maguire tells host Shane Morand that, through intermediaries — presumably Chinese — Russian oil is available at a big discount via trading in London when purchased with gold. This arbitrage is increasing demand for real metal in London, Maguire says, and he expects it to put great strain on the “paper” gold trade there.

The program is 36 minutes long and can be seen at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

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The Fed is losing control over the inflation narrative as bond traders whack long term bonds driving up yields as the betting continues that the Fed cannot get rates down to 2%

(Ambramowicz/Bloomberg)

Lisa Abramowicz: The Fed is losing control over the inflation narrative

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-04-24 11:49Section: Daily Dispatches

By Lisa Abramowicz
Bloomberg News
via The Washington Post
Sunday, April 24, 2022

The Federal Reserve is poised to raise interest rates at the fastest pace in 40 years after policy makers’ hawkish rhetoric turned more aggressive last week. The problem, though, is that bond traders keep boosting their longer-term inflation expectations in a very concerning development for the central bank, the economy and financial markets

Traders are betting that even with the Fed boosting its target for the federal funds rate by 2.5 percentage points this year to 3%, it won’t be enough to get the inflation rate back down to 2% over the next decade from around 8.5% currently. This week, 2-year Treasury note yields surged to the highest levels since 2018 as Fed Chair Jerome Powell endorsed the idea of a half-percentage-point increase when policy makers meet in two weeks and saying many officials view “one or more” such moves as appropriate.

Even so, longer-term inflation expectations kept climbing. The market-implied inflation rate over the next five to 10 years rose to the highest since 2014, jumping to almost 2.6%, and 10-year breakeven rates climbed to the highest since at least 1998, surpassing 3%. The long-time bond bulls at Hoisington Investment Management Co. expressed concern in their first-quarter letter to investors, saying an economic downturn would favor buying long-term Treasuries, but “investors should be wary” of the Fed failing to sufficiently tamp down inflation.

All this suggests one of two things: either the world’s most important central bank has lost control over inflation, or it isn’t going to even try to get it back down to their 2% target. 

“If the Fed wants to get back to 2% inflation, I find it hard to believe that a soft landing is possible,” Columbia University finance and economics professor Glenn Hubbard said Friday on Bloomberg Surveillance. Traders agree, with breakeven rates suggesting they think policy makers will avoid torpedoing the economy and err on the side of doing less, not more, when it comes to tightening monetary policy. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/the-fed-is-losing-control-over-the-inflation-narrative/2022/04/24/46ab2d1e-c3cf-11ec-8cff-33b059f4c1b7_story.html

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4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

5.OTHER COMMODITIES  RICE

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL//DIAMONDS

Russian Diamond Flow To India Stops As US Sanctions Cause Gem Chaos 

FRIDAY, APR 22, 2022 – 09:20 PM

Do you own diamonds? It could be time to call up the local jeweler and reassess them. Here’s why: 

Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Russian diamond miner Alrosa PJSC, removing a third of the global supply of rough stones. 

Bloomberg reports rough stones have stopped flowing from Russian mines to Surat, India, the mecca of diamond cutting and polishing. 

Industry experts say traders and manufacturers are searching for workarounds as Indian banks are unwilling or unable to process payments with Alrosa due to OFAC’s sanctions. 

Alrosa sent top officials earlier this week to Surat to speak with customers and trade groups about future sales. 

For some context, Alrosa accounts for 33% of the global supply of rough stones, about the same as De Beers. OFAC’s sanctions against Russia have been seismic for the worldwide diamond industry as supply tightens, sending prices of the rock sky-high. 

The Diamond Index via International Diamond Exchange (IDEX) surged 36% in the last two years. 

Those experts also said Alrosa’s upcoming sale of rough stones was canceled because banks could not process payments. The Russian miner holds only ten sales each year. 

Meanwhile, discontent is growing among G-20 members that not all will stop buying Russian stones. Retailers in China, India, and the Middle East plan to continue buying despite OFAC’s sanctions. 

We noted earlier this week that not all BRICs have bowed to U.S. pressure to stop purchasing Russian goods. It lends credibility to an emerging multi-polar world.

Industry experts said Alrosa’s meeting could result in a bilateral (rupees for rubles) payment structure for the uncut gems. Again, this could be another example of the birth of the emerging Bretton Woods III system, recently popularized by Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar

The disruptions around Russian diamonds will persist as supply tightens, only making the prices of the stone even more unaffordable. Then there are lab-grown diamonds, a cheaper alternative to the real thing.

end

Palm Oils

Indonesia Bans Edible Oil Exports, Sparks “Mayhem” As Global Food Crisis Ahead 

FRIDAY, APR 22, 2022 – 07:20 PM

The rise of food protectionism by countries could exacerbate a massive hunger crisis that could take the world by storm later this year (well, that’s at least what the Rockefeller Foundation believes). 

The world’s biggest palm oil producer, Indonesia, is the latest country to embrace protectionist measures to mitigate domestic food shortages, according to Bloomberg

President Joko Widodo on Friday announced the export ban of all cooking oil and palm oil products would begin on April 28. 

Widodo said during a television broadcast that the measures aimed to ensure domestic markets had ample cooking oil supplies following a dramatic increase in prices. 

“I will monitor and evaluate the implementation of this policy so availability of cooking oil in the domestic market becomes abundant and affordable,” he said. 

Following the news, traders are placing bullish bets that world supplies of cooking oil and palm oil products will tighten even more. U.S. soyoil futures jumped more than 3% to a record high of 84 cents per pound. 

“The news will certainly create a mayhem,” said Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based broker Pelindung Bestari. 

“We have the largest producer banning the exports of palm products which will add more uncertainty to the already tight availability of vegetable oil worldwide,” Supramaniam said. 

The Ukraine conflict has roiled the global edible oil market. The Black Sea region accounts for 76% of world sunoil exports. Commercial shipments in the region have been disrupted due mainly by insurers for vessels charging very high war premiums that make cargo nearly impossible in insure. 

Indonesia’s move adds to the growing food protectionism as several other countries, including Argentina, have raised export taxes on edible oils. Meanwhile, Moldova, Hungary, and Serbia have banned some grain exports. 

Increasing food protectionism is another worry for importers dependent on other countries (such as ones in the Middle East and Africa) that may lead to shortages and trigger unrest. 

As we noted initially, the Rockefeller Foundation has given a timeframe on when the food crisis begins. 

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Gold Tumbles Below $1900 – Erases All Post-Putin Risk-Premia

MONDAY, APR 25, 2022 – 08:28 AM

…as if it never happened.

Judging by the ‘safe haven’ derisking in the barbarous relic, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent chaos in global markets is a nothingburger. For the third time since the Russian President invaded Ukraine, Gold has broken back below $1900…

Will the third time be the charm for a test of $1900?

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.5510

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.5740

HANG SANG CLOSED UP DOWN 769.18 PTS OR 3.73%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN  514.48PTS OR 1.90% 

3. Europe stocks  ALL RED 

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  101.23/Euro FALLS TO 1.07510

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.251/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 128.24/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold  DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -SHORE CLOSED DOWN//  OFF- SHORE  DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.0.894%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 2.62% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELDFALLS TO 1.88%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.73: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.97

3j Gold at $1904.95 silver at: 23.55   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1/3      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 73.16

3m oil into the 97 dollar handle for WTI and  101 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 128.24 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9565– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0283well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.835 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.901 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.76

Global Markets Tumble On Hawkish Central Bank Anguish, China Lockdown Fears

MONDAY, APR 25, 2022 – 07:48 AM

The global selloff that started in Asia, sending China’s CSI300 plunging to the lowest level since May 2020, slamming the offshore yuan below 6.60 and sparking a liquidation in oil and cryptos amid fears that the Shanghai lockdown will spread to the capital Beijing and lead to an even greater slowdown in the global economy…

… has quickly spread around the globe, slamming not just European markets but US equity futures which slid as much as 1% as traders fretted over the prospects of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve, Chinese lockdowns and disappointing earnings. S&P 500 futures were down 0.9% as of 7:00am EDT after plunging 2.8% on Friday, while Nasdaq futures retreated 0.8%, with the rout hammering tech stocks especially hard. Some context: the Nasdaq 100 Index has erased about $1 trillion in market value since Netflix released disappointing earnings and is closing in on oversold levels; the tech-heavy FANGMAN basket has lost $2.4 trillion in market cap from 2021 ATH as Netflix and Facebook  Meta, have lost most of their gains from past 5yrs. Remember when Facebook hit the $1tn market cap club in 2021? Now it’s worth exactly half that.

But now the tech bear market is finally spreading all US stocks which closed at their lowest levels in more than a month on Friday as fears over a more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle led to broad-based selling. Investors are entering another busy week for big technology companies’ earnings, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Paypal and Apple all reporting results although don’t expect some miraculous surge.

Investor mood was already morose after Fed chair erome Powell’s hawkish comments last week hurt sentiment already sapped by the war in Ukraine, a slowdown in China and the risks inflation poses to company earnings, according to Michael Hewson, chief analyst at CMC Markets in London. “The final straw appears to be a concern about the prospect of a policy mistake by central banks, and a possible recession by the end of the year,” he said.

One sole glimmer of green, Twitter shares, rose 0.6% in premarket trading after a WSJ report that Elon Musk met with the social media platform’s executives on Sunday as the company turns more receptive toward the billionaire’s $43 billion takeover offer. As discussed earlier, U.S.-listed Chinese stocks fell in premarket trading as expanded Covid lockdown measures in major Chinese cities spark concerns over the country’s growth outlook. Pinduoduo led a decline in American depositary receipts, down 4.7% in premarket trade. E-commerce peers Alibaba Group fell 3.9% and JD.com lost 2.5%. Electric carmakers including Nio and Li Auto also fell. The weakness tracks a 4.9% slump in China’s CSI 300 Index, which closed at its lowest level in two years. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • U.S.-listed Chinese stocks look set to open lower on Monday as expanded Covid lockdown measures in major cities sparked concerns over the country’s economic growth outlook.
  • Pinduoduo (PDD US) led a decline in American depositary receipts, down 4.7% in premarket trade. E-commerce peers Alibaba (BABA US) fell 3.9% and JD.com (JD US) lost 2.5%. Electric carmakers including Nio (NIO US) and Li Auto (LI US) also fell.
  • AT&T (T US) reinstated with a buy rating at Goldman Sachs with the focus turning to the telecom giant’s core business, while the broker cuts its rating on Verizon (VZ US) on valuation grounds. AT&T up 0.6% in premarket, Verizon -1.4%.
  • Cenntro Electric (CENN US) rises as much as 22% premarket ahead of the electric-vehicle company’s quarterly update due after the close on Monday.
  • Kellogg (K US) was downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank, which stays cautious and below consensus ahead of 1Q22 results because of headwinds including worsening inflation and supply chain disruptions. Shares down 1.4% in premarket.
  • Morgan Stanley says DoorDash (DASH US) is the “best executor around” among food delivery companies, but awaits a better entry point as initiates at equal-weight with Street- low $100 target. Shares down 1.1% in premarket on low volume.
  • GoDaddy (GDDY US) upgraded to overweight at Piper Sandler on strong free cash flow potential, with the broker cutting its ratings on Wix.com (WIX US) and Squarespace (SQSP US) in a rejig of its digital presence coverage. GoDaddy little changed in premarket, Wix.com and Squarespace not traded.

Coca-Cola and Activision Blizzard are among companies reporting earnings today.

In Europe, markets are under heavy pressure: Euro Stoxx 50 drops as much as 2.6% with several other core indexes down over 2%. Spain’s IBEX outperforms. Miners are the weakest performers with the Stoxx 600 sector down over 5%. Energy and consumer products and services similarly lag.  Europe’s Basic Resources Index  crashed 6%, and was set for the worst daily drop since March 2020. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Ubisoft shares rise as much as 12% after Bloomberg reported the video-game publisher is attracting takeover interest from private equity firms including Blackstone and KKR.
  • Garanti stock rallies as much as 5.6% after parent BBVA sweetened its voluntary offer for the Turkish lender and the unit said 1Q net income tripled.
  • Biogaia shares rise as much as 9.6% after the Swedish food-additives and supplements maker published preliminary 1Q sales figures, which included a large beat on operating profit and net sales.
  • Barco shares rise as much as 4.2% after the projector maker’s Cinionic JV won a contract to install laser projectors in 3,500 U.S. auditoriums of cinema chain operator AMC.
  • The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources and Energy sub- indexes both slumped on Monday amid broad declines for commodities prices on concerns that a growing Covid-19 outbreak in China will hit demand.
  • Shell -4.5%, TotalEnergies SE -3.1%, Glencore -6.0%, Anglo American -6.5%
  • Philips stock falls as much as 11% after publishing its latest earnings, where higher provisions related to its recall of Dreamstation breathing machines overshadowed better-than-expected 1Q sales.
  • Roche shares fell as much as 3.6% after the Swiss pharma company reported mixed first quarter results. Sales beat expectations due to a boost to the diagnostics division, while the pharmaceutical unit missed.

As we reported on Sunday, the big news out of France is that Macron won the second round of the Presidential Election with 58.6% of the vote vs Le Pen at 41.4%, while Le Pen conceded defeat after the initial projections, according to Reuters and Sky News. Elsewhere, ECB President Lagarde commented that interest rate hikes will not lower energy prices, according to Barron’s. ECB policymakers are said to be keen to finish bond purchases as soon as possible and possibly hike rates in July but no later than August, while they are leaning towards two rate moves this year with three also a possibility, according to Reuters sources. However, an ECB spokesperson declined to comment on the timing of ending bond purchases and potential interest rate increases. The EU is said to prepare the creation of a new trade and tech council with India, according to FT sources. The new forum could be unveiled on Monday during the European Commission President’s visit to India.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slumped the most since March 11 as China’s worsening Covid-19 outbreak and a looming rate hike by the Federal Reserve hurt risk sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 2.2% Monday, setting off a grim start to the region’s busiest week for earnings. The biggest drags were technology stocks sensitive to higher interest rates, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Alibaba and Tencent.  Equities in mainland China and Hong Kong were among the region’s worst performers. Chinese stocks slid to a two year low amid fears that rising infections in Beijing may spur an unprecedented city-wide lockdown of the capital. The Chinese regulator also ordered platform companies to better handle online violence, dragging tech stocks lower. READ: China Lockdown Angst Rips Through Markets as Stocks, Yuan Plunge The lockdowns that have now expanded to parts of Beijing will “cause a logistical problem that’s going to affect not just China but also the rest of the world,” Jeffrey Halley, Asia Pacific senior market analyst at Oanda, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.  With no signs of change in Covid zero policy and very little in terms of actual stimulus, “that all points to lower China stocks and we are going to see a weaker yuan going forward,” he added. Investors are also on guard for corporate earnings. Stock-market heavyweights including Kweichow Moutai in China and Samsung Electronics in South Korea are expected to release first-quarter results this week.   With a number of Fed speakers recently showing support for 50-basis-point hikes, tech shares led declines of major gauges in the region. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 10% from its January high.  

Japanese equities dropped, extending a global selloff amid prospects for aggressive U.S. interest-rate hikes and a worsening Covid outbreak in China. Electronics and machinery makers were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 1.5%, with 32 of 33 industry groups in the red. Fast Retailing and SoftBank Group were the largest contributors to a 1.9% loss in the Nikkei 225.

Indian stocks also fell, joining their peers across Asia, as appetite for risk waned amid renewed concerns over Covid infections and its possible impact on business growth.  The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 1.1% to 56,579.89, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped 1.3% to 16,953.95. Reliance Industries Ltd. lost 2.3%, the most in seven weeks. It was the biggest drag on the Sensex, which saw 23 of its 30 stocks trading lower.   All but one of 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a gauge of metal stocks.  The continued war in Ukraine and fears of a wider lockdown in Beijing are weighing on sentiment, already impacted by the risk of a global slowdown as the U.S. Fed raises rates to tame inflation. Of the six Nifty 50 firms that have announced results so far, four have missed, while two have beaten analyst estimates. Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank are among the companies releasing Jan-March earnings this week. 

With risk off, safe havens were mostly bid: Treasuries advanced across the curve, with yields on the belly falling about 10bps and 10Y yields sliding 8bps to 2.833%. The belly of the UST curve outperforms by 1-2bps. Peripheral spreads widen to core with 10y Italy lagging peers on the rally. European bonds advanced, yet underperformed Treasuries; the spread between French 10-year bond yields and German equivalents tightened at the open after President Emmanuel Macron was re-elected as French president, only to widen as haven demand supported bunds. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; preliminary estimates are for around $25 billion this week. •    Three-month dollar Libor +1.11bp to 1.22486%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose a third day to the highest level since May 2020; the greenback advanced against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen and the Swiss franc; AUD and NZD lag G-10 peers. USD/JPY holds above 128. The euro fell to its lowest level versus the dollar since March 2020, erasing earlier gains amid broader greenback strength.  The pound slumped to the lowest versus the dollar since September 2020 and gilts advanced. The Aussie was the worst G-10 performer amid fears over the outlook for China’s demand for iron ore and with the selloff boosted by options-related selling. The yen rose, as concerns about the economic impact of accelerating U.S. rate increases put a pause on the recent aggressive selling of the currency. Japan’s government bonds tracked Treasuries higher with support from purchases by the Bank of Japan.

Perhaps most importantly, the yuan – which until now had resisted any weakness – plunged again, dropping to the lowest level in 17 months as the offshore yuan dropped below 6.60 the lowest level since Nov 2020, spurring a selloff in emerging-market currencies.

In commodities, crude futures sold ell off with WTI down over 4% and back on a $97-handle. Base metals are similarly deep in the red. Spot gold drops ~$14 to trade near $1,916/oz. Monday’s pullback in the soaring price of commodities since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has done little to assuage concerns about runaway inflation. Fed Jerome Powell had outlined his most bold approach yet to reining in surging prices and the European Central Bank signaled stronger tightening.

Bitcoin continued to tumble alongside the broader crypto market, even though the harder the stocks fall and the more the Fed tightens, the more it will eventually have to ease, unleashing the next surge higher in cryptos which we expect to push bitcoin over $100,000 and Ether over $10,000.

Looking at the calendar, the economic data slate includes March Chicago Fed national activity (8:30am) and April Dallas Fed manufacturing activity(10:30am); consumer confidence, GDP, PCE deflator and University of Michigan sentiment are ahead this week. Today we will earnings from Coca-Cola, Activision Blizzard, Vivendi.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.7% to 4,235.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.8% to 445.31
  • MXAP down 2.0% to 166.02
  • MXAPJ down 2.4% to 546.02
  • Nikkei down 1.9% to 26,590.78
  • Topix down 1.5% to 1,876.52
  • Hang Seng Index down 3.7% to 19,869.34
  • Shanghai Composite down 5.1% to 2,928.51
  • Sensex down 1.0% to 56,637.35
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 7,473.28
  • Kospi down 1.8% to 2,657.13
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.89%
  • Euro down 0.4% to $1.0751
  • Brent Futures down 4.4% to $101.96/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,920.54
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.20% to 101.43

Top Overnight  News from Bloomberg

  • China’s coronavirus outbreak worsened as rising cases in Beijing sparked jitters about an unprecedented lockdown of the capital, with policy makers racing to avert a Shanghai-style crisis that’s already wrought havoc on the financial hub
  • China must take stronger action to boost growth above 5% in the second quarter, said a central bank adviser who warned the country needs to lay a foundation for achieving its full-year target in the face of rising economic risks
  • A sustained and substantial increase in U.S. real yields would be bad news for developing nations as it typically boosts the dollar and sucks capital out of riskier assets, like in 2008 and 2013
  • The U.S. announced it would start sending diplomats back to Ukraine and provide more military aid as Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Kyiv late on Sunday night, in the highest- level U.S. visit to the war-torn country since Russia invaded
  • China’s central bank stepped up its support for several distressed developers by allowing banks and bad-debt managers to loosen restrictions on some loans to ease a cash crunch, according to people familiar with the matter

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded negatively after last Friday’s stock rout on Wall Street with risk sentiment hampered by holiday closures, China’s COVID-19 woes and as participants brace for a busy week of key earnings releases. Nikkei 225 shed around 500 points with sentiment not helped by several earnings guidance downgrades and with Nissan shares were hit as alliance partner Renault mulls selling a partial stake in the Japanese automaker. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed on the COVID situation after daily deaths in Shanghai rose again and with the city to conduct another round of mass testing, while Beijing also scrambles to contain an outbreak with its Chaoyang district to require residents and workers to undergo three COVID-19 tests this week.

Top Asian News

  • Asia Stocks Fall Most in Six Weeks as China Outbreak Worsens
  • China Woes Stoking Inflation Angst Set to Weigh on the Euro
  • Shimao Unit Proposes to Pay Down Puttable Bond Faster: REDD
  • Loan Curbs Eased for Distressed Developers: Evergrande Update

European cash markets kicked off the week lower across the board with a relatively broad-based performance seen across the majors. Sectors are lower across the board with a clear defensive tilt: Energy and Basic Resources sit at the bottom of the bunch amid hefty downside in underlying commodities. Stateside futures are lower in tandem with the broader market sentiment, whilst the NQ is slightly more cushioned by the earlier decline in yields. Twitter is reportedly re-examining Elon Musk’s bid and be more receptive to a deal with the sides meeting on Sunday to discuss the proposal. It was separately reported that Twitter is facing increasing shareholder pressure to negotiate with Elon Musk in his takeover bid and that the Co. is in talks with Elon Musk in which a potential deal could be made as early as this week, according to WSJ.

Top European News

  • Macron Gets Second Chance to Show France His Vision Can Work
  • Credit Suisse Special Audit Backed by Norway’s Wealth Fund
  • SocGen Too Quick to Axe Boss Accused of Trying to Kiss Colleague
  • Art Seized at U.S. Homes Part of Crackdown on Wealthy Russians

FX:

  • DXY sets new 2022 peak at 101.750 amid safety flight and sharp slide in crude alongside other commodities.
  • Yen back in favour as risk sentiment sours irrespective of denials about joint Japanese and US intervention discussion – Usd/Jpy towards base of 128.87-127.89 range.
  • Aussie underperforms on Anzac Day due to steep decline in copper and iron ore – Aud/Usd tests 0.7150 and Aud/Nzd cross under 1.0850 vs 1.0940 at one stage overnight.
  • Yuan extends depreciation as Covid spreads to a district in Beijing and PBoC continues to lower Cny midpoint reference rate – Usd/Cnh just shy of 6.6000, Usd/Cny eyeing 6.5650.
  • Euro averts 1.0700 test, narrowly, and pares more losses after surprisingly upbeat Ifo survey, on the surface – Eur/Usd rebounds to circa 1.0750, but still well below Macron victory high.
  • Pound loses Fib support on the way through 1.2800 and sub-8400 vs Dollar and Euro respectively.

Fixed Income

  • Debt futures firm as risk appetite wanes, but bonds fade beyond 154.50 in Bunds, 119.00 in Gilts and 119-25 in the 10 year T-note.
  • Core EZ bonds lose momentum after German Ifo survey beats and irrespective of less encouraging accompanying statements.
  • French OATs off peak within 147.38-146.28 range posted on confirmation of Macron defeating Le Pen to retain Presidency.
  • European Commission sells EUR 2.499bln (exp. EUR 2.500bln) 0.4% 2037 NGEU; b/c 2.05x (prev. 1.49x), average yield 1.626% (prev. 0.375%).

Commodities:

  • WTI and Brent June contacts have continued to decline since the resumption of futures trading.
  • Spot gold has been caged to a near-USD 5/oz range since the European open as the impact of a firming Buck negated the effects of lower yields at the time.
  • Base metals are in a sea of red as China’s lockdown woes hit the demand side of the equation – with LME aluminium and zinc the laggards at the time of writing.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: March Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.45, prior 0.51
  • 10:00: Revisions: Retail Sales, Inventories
  • 10:30: April Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 4.8, prior 8.7

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I survived a weekend alone with my kids but the only way for all of us to cope was to comfort eat and spend so much time on Netflix that I may as well cancel my subscription as there is nothing left to watch now. Never has Mum been so welcome by an adult, 3 kids and a dog, as she was on her return last night. Parenting is hard!

Central bankers are finding it hard too at the moment and it was a fascinating past week on that front as several important central bankers belatedly played a game of leapfrog on who could make the most aggressively hawkish rhetoric on taming inflation. Those speaking at the start of the week might have seemed hawkish at the time but by the end of the week they almost looked dovish. The IMF/World Bank gathering probably focused the minds of all the Governors, Presidents and Chairs present and hawkishness spread through the event like wildfire with the notable exception of Japan’s Kuroda who is seemingly sticking to the country’s YCC. We are now in the Fed blackout period so they won’t add to the hawkishness for the 9.5 days before we get the FOMC decision. Note that the BoJ meet on Thursday although nothing suggests they are going to pivot and will remain the last hawkish shoe to drop.

The French election has passed without incident with President Macron gaining 58.6% of the vote vs. 41.4% for Le Pen. Macron won 66.1% of the second round vote in 2017 and with him unable to stand in 2027 and with the traditional parties share of the vote at record lows who knows where French politics will be by then. However much water will flow under Le Pont des Arts before we need to worry about that. Meanwhile, the next hurdle for Macron will come with the Parliamentary elections on the 12th and 19th of June. Commonly referred to as the ‘third round’, the elections will be crucial as it will define the make-up of the government Macron must rely on to push through his reform program. See Marc de-Muizon’s blog last night here for more on this. The Euro popped nearly +0.6% higher at the Asian open after the results became clear but has subsequently dipped into negative territory as risk off dominates in Asia.

Mainland Chinese stocks are sliding with the Shanghai Composite (-1.95%) and CSI (-2.39%) down, falling to its lowest level since 2020 amid the worsening Covid situation in China, particularly in the financial hub of Shanghai. Strict restrictions have begun to spread, with authorities ordering mandatory Covid tests in a district of Beijing and many buildings locked down. The Hang Seng (-2.47%) is also lagging and elsewhere, the Nikkei (-1.94%) and Kospi (-1.44%) are weak. Outside of Asia, futures contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.42%) and Nasdaq (-0.30%) are lower with 2 and 10yr US yields both around -5bps lower. Brent and WTI are both around -2.9%.

Moving on to this week now and it is an important one for European inflation with German CPI on Thursday and the French and Italian equivalent (plus PPI) on Friday with the overall Euro CPI the same day. US (Thursday) and European Q1 GDP (Friday) will also be of interest.

Back to the US and inflation related data will be the closest watched with Friday’s ECI expected to be strong. This is one of the key indicators the Fed use for labour market strength. The core PCE deflator (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) also comes out as part of the income and spending report data on Friday. The rate of growth may well tick down here so this might provide a shred of good news on inflation without changing the story too much.

It will be an important week for corporate earnings too with 179 of the S&P 500 reporting and 134 in the Stoxx 600. Big US tech will be the highlight with Microsoft and Alphabet (tomorrow), Meta (Wednesday), and Apple and Amazon (Thursday). Consumption patterns will be in focus when we get results from Coca-Cola (today), Mondelez, Chipotle (tomorrow), Kraft Heinz (Wednesday) and McDonald’s (Thursday). Meanwhile, a range of banks across the globe will give a pulse check on consumer credit. Notable reporters will include HSBC, UBS, Santander (tomorrow), Credit Suisse (Wednesday), Barclays (Thursday), finishing with BBVA and NatWest on Friday. Other notable financials reporting will include Visa (tomorrow), PayPal (Wednesday) and Mastercard (Thursday).

Other tech-related companies releasing results will include Activision Blizzard (Monday), LG, Qualcomm, Spotify (Wednesday), Samsung, Intel and Twitter (Thursday). In healthcare, another sector that benefitted from the pandemic, reporters will include Novartis (tomorrow), GlaxoSmithKline (Wednesday), Eli Lilly, Merck, Sanofi (Thursday) and AstraZeneca (Friday).

To see how the commodity rally and the focus on energy transition affected major commodity companies worldwide, markets will get earnings from Iberdrola, Vale (Wednesday), Total, Repsol (Thursday), Exxon, Orsted, Chevron and Eni (Friday). Downstream users like transport firms will report too, including General Motors (tomorrow), Boeing, Mercedes-Benz and Ford (Wednesday). Other notable corporates releasing results will include Texas Instruments, General Electric, UPS and Caterpillar.

The rest of the day by day calendar of events appears at the end as usual on a Monday.

Reviewing last week now, as discussed at the top a cadre of central bank officials reinforced the idea that monetary policy needs to tighten on both sides of the Atlantic this year, thus driving sovereign yields higher.

Chair Powell, in his last remarks before the Fed’s May meeting communications blackout, lent credence to the wisdom of front loading the hiking cycle and getting policy rates to neutral as quickly as possible. Regional Fed presidents, spanning ideologies, concurred throughout the week. Short-term markets ended the week pricing more than 150 basis points of tightening over the next three meetings, embedding some risk premium for a 75 basis point hike at each meeting. Futures markets are implying Fed policy rates will be north of 2.80% by the end of the year, above the Fed’s estimates of neutral.

President Lagarde was careful to draw a distinction between the US and European situation, but nevertheless would not rule out an increase to ECB policy rates as early as July, following the cessation of net APP purchases, which is likely early in the third quarter. Markets are pricing 24 basis points of ECB tightening by the July meeting, and 85 basis points of tightening for the rest of the year.

Bank of England Governor Bailey highlighted the path of policy was laced with uncertainty, but inflation was likely to increase due to rising energy costs. Bailey added the bank would not sell its security holdings into fragile markets.

Even committed dove, Ingves of the Swedish Central Bank, rowed back on his previous mantras and acknowledged tightening was needed.

As a result, Sovereign yields were higher in each jurisdiction, with 10yr Treasury, bund, and gilt yields increasing +8.2bps (-1.2bps Friday), +10.6bps (+2.4bps Friday), and +7.4bps (-4.9bps Friday), respectively. For their part, 10yr OAT yields closed the week at a +44.5bp spread above bund equivalents, their tightest since March, as President Macron’s polling advantage increased heading into yesterday’s election.

Equity indices retreated on the tighter policy path. The STOXX 600 fell -1.42% (-1.79% Friday) while the S&P 500 was -2.75% lower (-2.77% Friday), bringing it into correction territory YTD (-10.37%) again. Mega cap tech stocks bore the brunt, with FANG+ falling -8.76% (-1.99%) as higher discount rates hit valuations. The mega cap losses accelerated after Netflix reported it lost subscribers in the first quarter, which sent its share prices more than -35% lower. The reprieve was only temporary the following day when Tesla reported a record profit on the back of surging electric car demand.

Brent crude oil futures were relatively subdued by comparison to other asset classes and recent volatility, falling -5.43% (-2.48% Friday) over the week to $105.64/bbl.

Elsewhere the IMF revised down their global growth expectations in light of Russia’s invasion, expecting the global economy to grow 3.6 percent in each of the next two years. Fighting continued in eastern Ukraine, with Russia declaring victory over the port city of Mariupol, while there was not any material public progress in peace negotiations. The Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee said Russia’s remuneration of foreign currency bonds with rubles would constitute a default and trigger credit default swaps. Russia has a 30-day grace period, which ends May 4, to make creditors whole.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 158.41 PTS OR 5.13% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 769.18 OR  3.73%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 514.48 PTS OR 1.90%        //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.51%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.5740    /Oil DOWN TO 97.18 dollars per barrel for WTI andDOWN TO 101.23 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5510 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.5320: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER//

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

END

3B  JAPAN

Japan vs China vs USA vs EU: a must read!!

(Edwards)

“The Biggest Story No-One Is Talking About”: Why Albert Edwards Expects “Something In The Market Is About To Snap”

SUNDAY, APR 24, 2022 – 02:00 PM

It was exactly one month ago – on March 24 – when we first laid out the big dilemma facing the Bank of Japan, which on one hand was hoping to avoid a currency collapse (for obvious reasons) and prevent a crash in the yen, while on the other hand, was also hoping to keep the 10Y yield below its extremely dovish 0.25% yield curve control rate ceiling. The problem is that while the BOJ can control one or the other, it can’t control both; this is what we said then: 

Japan, that paragon of MMT crackpots everywhere, suddenly finds itself trapped in a lose-lose dilemma: intervene in the bond market and spark a furious, potentially destabilizing and uncontrolled plunge in the yen which would also lead to galloping (if not worse) inflation, which could collapse what little faith remains in the BOJ, or do nothing and contain the slump in the yen while risking far higher yields which in a country where the debt is orders of magnitude greater than GDP, could also spell fiscal and monetary doom.

As a result, the market – having long gotten used to amicable interventions from the BOJ – will now surely test one of these two outcomes, and how the BOJ responds could have dramatic consequences for this original MMT test case. Should the BOJ’s reaction spark further erosion of faith in either Japan’s fiscal or monetary policies, the outcome for the world’s most indebted nation would be disastrous.

A few days later, SocGen’s permaskeptic (he is not big a fan of the word “permabear”) Albert Edwards picked up on this line of thought and in an extensive note laying out his thoughts on Japan’s “lose-lose dilemma”, added a new twist, namely that as the yen implodes, China – whose currency has been surprisingly strong even as its economy has hit a brick wall – will follow suit and devalue its own currency.

Since then two things have happened: i) as we predicted, the Japanese yen has crashed and as we discussed last week, suffered its longest stretch of one-day declines in history pushing it to a 20 year low, and prompting the BOJ to quietly beg Janet Yellen for some coordinated currency intervention (which however, the US Treasury shot down late last week)…

… and just as importantly, ii) the yuan has also suddenly cratered, suffering its biggest weekly loss since the surprise devaluation in August 2015, after tumbling 2.1%; in a move which we said on Friday has spurred “Whispers Of Yuan Devaluation After Biggest Weekly Plunge Since 2015.

Ok, so both the yen and the yuan have cratered, largely due to fundamental schism in monetary policy as both Japan and China are the two major central banks who are currently easing (or in the case of China, mostly pretending to) even as the Fed is about to hike more than 10 times in 2022 according to market estimates. Hardly shocking and to be expected (at least for our readers).

But according to Albert Edwards, who refuses to let this story drop, not only is this divergence about to get much worse, but it will lead to catastrophic market consequences. It’s also “the biggest story no-one is talking about.”

In a note published late last week under the same title (and available to all professional subscribers), Edwards turns his attention to the yen and yuan, and writes that “surely all of us working in finance realize by now that something is likely to snap in the financial system and probably quite soon.”

Why? Because according to the SocGen strategist, “the rapidity of current market moves and the polarisation of the now extreme Fed (hawkish) and BoJ (dovish) policies almost guarantees that outcome…. Maybe the outcome wouldn’t be so ugly if central bankers had not spent recent decades ramping up asset prices to today’s grotesque levels through their monetary incontinence. But they did.”

Comparing the monetary policy divergence between the US and Japan to “a car crash in slow motion“, Edwards writes that polarization in central bank monetary policy between the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan is being stretched ever wider to the point where “at some point soon your life might even flash before you (btw that really does happen. I know because it has happened to me twice, although only one was a vehicle collision)” he writes.

And while nobody died trading FX on Friday (that we know of), that’s when the Bank of Japan continued to hold the line on its Yield Curve Control policy capping the 10y JGB yields at 0.25%, and even offered a second round of extremely dovish unlimited 10y bond purchases for a four-day period; at the same time the Fed’s “super hawks” were trying to convince the market that a series of 50bp (or even 75bps) Fed Funds hikes were imminent (and judging by the crash in the Dow, they may have succeeded). Between these extremes of behavior, Edwards adds that “what the ECB and PBoC are getting up to is effectively just a sideshow, although still an important one.”

It’s not just Edwards who focuses on the divergence between the Fed and the BOJ: frequent ZH guest, Larry McDonald, author of the excellent Bear Traps Report writes that the current policy divergence consists of “a) the PBOC (cutting rates, 530bn yuan additional liquidity), b) the ECB winding down net asset purchases this quarter and setting up for a 2H rate hike, c) the BoJ’s aggressive balance sheet expansion, and d) the Fed’s promising 9-12 rate hikes looking out a year with QT aggressively involved.” and concludes “This type of insane monetary policy divergence will clearly break something, that is certain.

Picking up on this dire warning, Edwards notes that one place where something might break soon is in China; he quotes SocGen China expert Wei Yao who believes that the Chinese “economy is now in severe distress and requires aggressive easing. In that context, its strangulation caught between a rising renminbi and a slumping yen, is simply intolerable.” This divergence – which SocGen calls the “jaws of exchange rate death” can only go on for so long before something snaps…

Stepping away China’s problems for a moment, Edwards turns the spotlight to the Fed, whose “increasingly loud [and hawkish] chest-beating” is “for most commentators the most important financial market development at the moment.”

Having moved from ‘expecting the recent surge in inflation to be transitory’ to admitting they are way behind the tightening curve, it seems the Fed is now willing to hike rates by 50bp multiple times this year. Meanwhile bond prices continue to abseil at an increasingly rapid pace in the face of this gathering gale.

Here Edwards interjects that a just as important development is what we first highlighted a month ago, namely that “the BoJ is engaged on an equally aggressive demonstration of their power – this time in refusing point-blank to acknowledge that 10y JGB yields will hardly even rise above 0.25% despite soaring yields elsewhere in G7. Its Yield Curve Control policy is not just being maintained, but the quantity of QE needed to maintain YCC is accelerating at warp speed. Japan central bankers are now also beating their chests in a demonstration of their power unseen in my working lifetime.”

One can see the direct result of this in one of the most rapid divergences in the US-Japan 10y spread in history.

One can also see the consequence of this yield and QE/QT divergence in the rapidity of the yen exchange rate decline recently.

Of course, in the end one of the two central banks will capitulate first, and that will most likely be the BOJ as it has far less firepower – both monetary and verbal – than the Fed. One can watch this in real time as US Treasury yields soar higher, while the 10y JGB yield keeps knocking at that 0.25% YCC door “and the louder it knocks, the more rapidly the yen plunges.” Indeed, as we forecast a month ago, at some point, either the yen will snap, or the BOJ’s defense of the upper YCC barrier will fail (or both).

What happens then? Well, according to Edwards, the crashing yen has been propping up US Treasuries, as yen carry traders flee local assets and find (relatively) safety in US paper. This means that any direct intervention to prop up the yen by the BOJ will lead to another snap higher in US yields as the Japanese carry trade buyer drops out of the picture.

But the move higher in US yields would be child’s play compared to the total collapse that would follow in Japan as the entire MMT paradigm is exposed for one epic fraud. To wit, when answering the question what happens to JGB yields when the BOJ pulls an RBA and no longer defends the 0.25% barrier, Edwards writes that while “the BoJ will persist in maintaining the 0.25% cap and all that implies” once “it abandons this ceiling or resets it higher” look no further than Australia for what happens next, which he shows shows below.

The conclusion: “When Australia ended YCC yields snapped higher – much higher!” A similar interest rate move in Japan, still the world’s second largest economy, and one can kiss all remaining central bank credibility goodbye forever… and with it, also say goodbye to the fiat regime, which perhaps may just be the endgame here.

Much more in the full Albert Edwards note available to pro subscribers.

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/COVID LOCKDOWNS

Shanghai doubles down on quarantine measures despite the decline in cases.  They are worried about ADE hitting vaccinated patients

(zerohedge)

Shanghai Doubles Down On Quarantine Measures Despite Decline In Cases

FRIDAY, APR 22, 2022 – 08:40 PM

Local authorities in Shanghai have made a big deal about their efforts to reopen factories and the city’s all-important port, while easing restrictions on some of the population. But the reality is that while authorities have focused on bringing factories (like Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory) back to some semblance of full production, millions of locals are still suffering under the weight of some of the world’s most stringent COVID measures (even after restrictions were eased on 4 million earlier this week). 

Despite continued reductions in new case numbers, the local government on Thursday signaled that it’s not planning on easing lockdown measures any time soon. The government announced a nine-point action plan that will add more quarantine hospital beds and transfer all COVID-positive patients as well as their close contacts to quarantine centers – where they will be treated with “traditional Chinese medicine”, WSJ reports. 

In a few instances, patients will be allowed to isolate at home, although only on a temporary basis, according to the plan, which also called for the maintenance of strict controls on movement, mass testing and contact tracing, according to WSJ. 

Meanwhile, local authorities reported that more than 70% of 666 major industrial companies in Shanghai have resumed production in the past week, Vice Mayer Zhang Wei said during a regular briefing, according to Bloomberg. To be sure, the damage has already been done: Shanghai’s industrial output fell 7.5% in March as COVID caused the city’s industrial sector to essentially shut down, said Wu Jincheng, a local economic official.

There have been a few bright spots, however: Daily average container throughput at Shanghai Port was kept above 100,000 TEU in April.

In a Q&A with state media posted online on Friday, Shanghai’s government said it would focus on ensuring that all new infections are contained within quarantined areas and facilities and that the city would only gradually loosen restrictions on movement and activity on a neighborhood by neighborhood basis once this has been achieved (although earlier this week, 

Shanghai health authorities unveiled an aggressive new COVID containment plan despite continued reductions in new cases, indicating China’s financial capital is still far from declaring victory over the country’s worst outbreak since the start of the pandemic.

END

SHANGHAI//COVID/DEATHS

It looks to me that China is experiencing ADE with their faulty vaccines.  The country is 90% vaccinated and they are scared that citizens will pass the virus onto others in rapid fashion.  This is why the continual lockdowns

(zerohedge)

Shanghai Reports Record COVID Deaths As Lockdown Drags On

SUNDAY, APR 24, 2022 – 05:00 PM

As the COVID pandemic in Shanghai drags on, the city  reported its highest number of daily COVID deaths yet (at least, the largest number according to their official data) as China continues to abide by its “zero COVID” policy, even after easing restrictions on some residential areas ever-so-slightly late last week.

The city recorded 39 fatalities for Saturday, bringing its total number of virus-related deaths to 87 since late February, according to a report on Sunday by the Shanghai Health Commission. The average age of the people who died was 78.7 and all had underlying diseases, according to the report.

In terms of the number of cases, the city counted 21,058 new COVID cases, the vast majority of which were mild or asymptomatic, the commission said. The previous day, the city reported 23,370 new local cases and 12 deaths.

Rapid economic data gathered from Goldman has continued to reflect the impact of the lockdown, including data on subway ridership, which has remained at almost zero for nearly a month.

China’s financial center is entering its fourth week of strict lockdown, while people living in the eastern part of the city have been locked down in their homes for even longer. Frustration among residents has been building due to a lack of access to food or medical care, poor quality government rations and the location of quarantine centers.

Shanghai’s municipal government said it would adopt a nine-point plan starting Friday to achieve its goal of “no community spread”, a milestone that’s eluded the city despite weeks of lockdown. The announcement damped hopes that the restrictions would gradually ease in the coming weeks.

Authorities vowed to strictly implement rules, including making sure people don’t leave their homes in restricted areas.

The lockdown measures have incited Shanghai’s beleaguered population to increasing resist the government’s strictures, including a video documentary published last week, which flooded social media, ahowing the impact of nearly a month of lockdown, the longest anywhere in China since the initial lockdown in Wuhan ended in the late spring of 2020.

END

BEIJING/CHINA//COVID

First it was Shanghai with the majority of cases: now it is Beijing as outbreak detected and citizens scramble for food

(zerohedge)

Beijing Residents Scramble To Stockpile Food, Essentials As New COVID Outbreak Detected

SUNDAY, APR 24, 2022 – 10:00 PM

Hopes that the CCP might be easing its Shanghai lockdown were dashed this week as authorities loosened restrictions for manufacturers and others businesses, while mostly keeping restrictions on residential areas intact.

Instead of winding down restrictions in Shanghai, authorities are now scrambling to suppress an outbreak in Beijing which they believe may have been spreading for as long as a week. The capital city reported 22 new local cases on Sunday, its highest daily tally this year.

While the number of new cases would be considered inconsequential anywhere else, authorities have placed part of Beijing under high alert, cancelling classes in a middle school where cases were detected, with the shutdown expectected to last for at least a week.

As authorities mobilized to try and curb the spread with mass testing, which has helped to scare locals into bracing for a lockdown, spurring sudden runs on grocery stores and other businesses.

After masstesting was announced for the central Chaoyang district, photos of empty grocery store shelves flooded social media.

Chaoyang is the biggest district in Beijing and is home to nearly 3.5 million people.

Locals will be required to take three PCR tests during the coming week.

On Friday, the city pledged to make “every effort” to deal with provide adequate food supplies, but truck drivers have already been hindered by multiple checkpoints and virus tests, leading to long waits. 

But Beijing isn’t the only Chinese city facing Shaghai-style lockdowns. City leaders met Saturday evening in Hangzhou, a technology hub best known to westerners as the home of Alibaba, to discuss how they plan to respond after more than 100 new cases were detected in the city since Tuesday.

In other COVID news, Bloomberg reported Sunday that Foxconn’s factory in Zhengzhou, situated in the Zhengzhou Airport Economy Zone that hosts Foxconn’s iPhone City campus, will continue operating despite the surrounding city facing an indefinite lockdown.

It goes without saying that a major lockdown in Beijing would have a massive impact on China’s economy, which has seen growth shrivel in the face of the lockdown in Shanghai.

CHINA/ECONOMY

Now China is on the verge of a major food crisis and water

Parts one and two.

China On The Verge Of A Major Food Crisis, Part 2: Water

FRIDAY, APR 22, 2022 – 09:40 PM

By Eric Mertz of the General Crisis Watch Substack,

Read Part 1 Here

Before I started I wanted to address my last post. I wrote it a little too hastily due to a sick daughter and I plan to go back and clean it up somewhat. The political infighting aspect will be trimmed down as I plan to discuss that more in Part 3, with only the parts directly addressing the food issue being kept in.

China has also started taking efforts to address some of these issues and I want to address what they’re doing. I fully admit to having an axe to grind when it comes to the CCP, but I want to make sure I’m as intellectually honest as possible. This includes giving them credit on the rare instances they manage to do something smart.

The fact these plans will wind up making it worse is just icing on the cake.

I also want to reformat it according to the template I plan to use going forward.

I’ll also be doing a Part 0 for this series which will include a table of contents for all of the posts in this series, and which will provide an overview of the relevant portions of Chinese history with a special focus on the Confucian concept of the Mandate of Heaven and its removal.

I hope to get that done tomorrow evening, but can’t guarantee that will occur.

Water, water everywhere but all of it polluted

Water Thresholds

In order to understand the grave danger China is facing, we need to understand water usage and thresholds below which the population begins to face some level of danger. For that, we’re going to turn to Reuters for an overview.

At a minimum, a civilization requires 1,700 cubic meters of water per person per year to be considered water secure. This amounts to 373,947 gallons of water per person, with a minimum of 4,156 gallons of water per year to ensure good health.

Freshwater is used for everything from industry to agriculture to power generation, and our infrastructure is rated for a minimum level of water moving through the pipes. If that water falls below that level, pressure drops and the water can become unsafe.

This starts to become a problem at 1,000 cubic meters per person per year, and reaches a threat level at 500 cubic meters per person per year.

Beijing is currently sitting at 100 cubic meters of fresh water per person per year. Barely seven times the necessary minimum for a person to remain healthy, with the rest stretched thin and endlessly recycled as it eventually becomes useless for any purpose which brings it into contact with humans in any way.

Groundwater

When examining the water situation in a given country, the first place to look is always the groundwater situation. Which, in China’s case, isn’t very positive.

Over 80% of the groundwater in China is unsafe, according to publicly available data attained from a Chinese government survey. Information which is normally a closely held secret. Same with the fact that 47% of the groundwater in China is so badly polluted it can’t even be used for industrial purposes.

Note, Beijing gets almost a third of their water from groundwater sources, which must be thoroughly treated at massive cost in man-hours, materials, and energy before it can be used by the general public. This has resulted in Beijing sinking at a rate of 11 cm per year as the depleted aquifer results in subsidence.

Assuming its even at a level which can be affordably treated. Which 47% of the groundwater can’t be.

This situation is even worse in the cities, where 90% of the groundwater is unusable for purposes which would bring it into contact with people. And, ironically, although the groundwater pollution is worse in the cities, rural areas are more heavily affected due to the fact most rural communities lack the resources to treat either the water they take in for normal usage or the waste water they release back into the wild.

China has tried to fix the problems with the aquifer depletion issue by turning its cities into what are known as “sponge cities”. Designed to channel water underground into the aquifer as a flood management project, these sponge cities are intended to serve a dual purpose. Its a brilliant idea in theory, but the project involves lots of spending on infrastructure which is underground and impossible to see.

Which has resulted in the city officials wasting that money on beautification projects instead.

Rivers

Turning to the rivers, we find the situation is only slightly better. While the groundwater is contaminated at a rate of 80-90%, the surface water – that is both lakes and rivers – is only polluted at a rate of 70%.

Similarly to the groundwater, half of it is unusable for any human application. This includes agriculture, industrial use, fishing, or even boating. This is because 225 billion tons of industrial sewage is dumped into Chinese rivers and lakes on an annual basis.

This has had rather predictable results in the form of what are known as “cancer villages”. At least 400 villages, mostly in the Yangtze river basin, were given this designation before the CCP realized the mistake they made and withdrew the classification. In these locations, cancer rates are 169% higher than in surrounding communities, with mortality rates 80% higher due to the aggressive nature of the cancers and the lack of access to healthcare in rural China.

As a side note, these cancers trend heavily towards esophageal and lung cancer. Combined with the reduced lung capacity from the horrific levels of air pollution, its entirely plausible this – combined with the fact the government was hiding the spread of its disease and its symptoms – is why we saw people keeling over dead on the street due to COVID in China while not seeing it in the West.

Water Shortages in the North

South North Water Transfer Project

Now, if you’ve seen those videos of the roaring floods which race down the Yangtze and wipe away villages every spring, the idea that China may have a water shortage may seem incredible. The problem is these floods are highly centralized in the south and are a result of China’s rainy season – which only lasts for a few months in spring and autumn. Even during the relatively dry periods, however, 80% of the water in China is located in the Yangtze basin.

This is great news for the people in the Yangtze, who don’t generally need to worry about quantity – even if they have to worry about quality – but it leaves the much more heavily populated north with only 20% of the water to provide for close to 70% of the population.

Back when Mao was still China’s unquestioned dictator, he liked to joke about borrowing water from the south to give it to the population in the north. In 2002, the CCP began construction on the South North Water Transfer Project, a series of three canals which are intended to transfer 44.8 billion cubic meters of water from the over-watered south to the dry north every year. It has already cost China $62 Billion for the first two routes – with an additional $15 Billion expected to be spent on the third route.

The three routes are expected to transport 14.8 billion cubic meters on the east route, which consists of an upgrade of the Grand Canal, moving water from the Yangtze to Beijing, 13 billion cubic meters on the central route from the Danjiangkou Reservoir on the Han River into Beijing, and 17 billion cubic meters on the western route, which will pull water from the Mekong, Brahmaputra, Salween, Yangtze and two other rivers into the north to be distributed as needed for agricultural projects.

Along the eastern route, 13 pumping stations had to be built to lift the water being transferred 14.8 billion cubic meters a total of 65 meters (213 feet) to climb over the continental divide.

Construction of the project displaced 330,000 people, and resulted in 400 of the rivers which both canals cross having disappeared outright. Someone in China has since started building cities and industrial parks in these extinct rivers. Which puts them directly in the path of the seasonal floods.

And the project has already failed.

According to data provided by the CCP, the North South Water Transfer Project is only capable of transporting a third of the rated capacity on the East and Central Routes.

To make matters worse, the water in the canals and aqueducts is reportedly sufficiently polluted as to be unusable. Which means the canal is actually making the problem worse as it pollutes previously clean water along the route. And when the flooding which inundated Zhengzhou and killed thousands in the underground expressway* in spring of 2021 threatened the integrity of the Central Route, the PLA destroyed other dams – flooding cities and villages throughout central China – in order to protect Beijing’s new water supply.

The reduced water flow in the Yangtze has also resulted in drastically reduced levels of sediment flowing along the river – which reduced the fertility of the cropland in the basin – and out into the sea. A decrease in sediment which was already effected by the construction of the Three Gorges Dam. Case studies regarding the Russian River and its fisheries showed that decreased sediment outflow from rivers had a negative effect on the available fish which could be safely removed from the fisheries fed by the river.

However, the water problem in the north is already getting worse.

If you recall, in September of 2021, China blocked coal imports from their primary source of coal – Australia – over Australia recognizing what China was doing to both the Falun Gong and the Uyghurs as an act of genocide. This immediately resulted in rolling blackouts, which China responding by increasing coal mining in Inner Mongolia. Specifically, they demanded an additional output of 98.35 Million metric tons of new coal mining, which results in an additional 24 Million cubic meters of water becoming unavailable for the general public to use.

Thankfully, this is not coming from the rivers. Unfortunately that’s because 70% of the water used to produce coal comes from the aquifers. With 47% of the water in these aquifers being unusable, this is a new and tight squeeze on water availability in the north.

*Officially, only 250 people died in the flooding.

Agricultural practices

Finally, we have to discuss agriculture. As you know from reading the previous post, China is facing a massive agricultural shortfall due to a shortage of trucking – largely driven by COVID lockdown protocols – has seen the capacity of freight hauling in the rural areas being cut by 86%. This has primarily hit farmers as a third are unable to get the seeds and fertilizer they need to grow crops.

That fertilizer is desperately needed. 64% of arable land is located in the cool and dry northern half of the country, which means farmers must engage in dryland agriculture even before the increased demand for food. Traditional irrigation practices in the cooler and dryer north, which sees 500 milimeters of rain delivered over a two month period, involved flooding the fields with water and letting it dry – increasing the concentration of salts in the soils as the lack of follow-on water means the hotter soil will pull these salts to the surface of the fields just as harvest comes due.

This water is usually highly polluted with fertilizer, fungicide, and other chemicals used to ensure your food is as abundant as possible. These pollutants will flow from the fields into canals and streams, where they are filtered by the shellfish the local farmers use to supplement their diet and income.

However, these are not new problems. Each of the issues outlined above is one which has been known for years, and Chinese leadership have failed to solve them.

To understand why, we need to discard this myth we have of the CCP as some skilled chess player with a hundred-year vision. In reality, the CCP is as reactionary as any other government with an elected head of state – with the added problem of suffering from the trap so many dictators fall into regarding misinformation being filtered up to the chief executive by subordinates who do not want to lose their access to greater wealth and influence while also having to deal with the factional politics of an elected system.

Which is what the next part of this series will focus on.

In part three, we will dive into the hall of mirrors which is the factional infighting between Xi Jinping’s Tsinghua Clique and Jiang Zemin’s Shanghai Clique. Get your thumbtacks and strings ready folks. You’re going to need them.

END

China//CUTS FX RESERVE RATIO

(zerohedge)

We now have the following countries easing:  CHINA and Japan

with the Eu on the fence and USA raising rates.  This will lead to trouble.

(zerohedge)

China Unexpectedly Cuts FX Reserve Ratio To Support Plunging Yuan

MONDAY, APR 25, 2022 – 08:23 AM

Just minutes after the offshore yuan’s extended slide dragged it below the key psychological level of 6.60, a level not breached since Nov 2020, China signaled that while it is now ok with a sliding yuan, there is a limit how much devaluation it will take, and shortly after 7am EDT the PBOC moved to limit the drop in the yuan by cutting the reserve requirement, or how much money banks need to have in reserve for their foreign currency holdings.

The move, which is the opposite of a RRR hike unveiled by the PBOC back in December and which was meant to prevent the yuan from rising too far, came after the yuan plunged in reaction to a growing Covid-19 outbreak in Shanghai and as of this weekend, Beijing too. Financial institutions will need to hold 8% of their foreign exchange in reserve starting May 15, the central bank said in a statement Monday, down from than the current level of 9%.

In a statement, the PBOC said that the cut is aimed at “increasing banks’ capabilities of forex fund use” and will help liquidity management. The change would increase the supply of dollars and other currencies onshore and relieve the yuan’s weakness.

Today’ cut follows two hikes last year when the central bank was trying to limit a strong currency, the opposite of the situation now.

While the news did manage to prop up the yuan modestly, with the offshore yuan narrowing arrowed its loss to 0.7% from 1.3% earlier in the day and trading at 6.5711 to the dollar after the announcement, it is still down on the day, and we don’ anticipate any material reversal in the recent downtrend in the yuan since China’ economy is desperately in need of more stimulus or faces a major hit to growth, both of which hint at far more weakness in the yuan.

CHINA/GLOBAL SHIPPING

With the growing number of covid cases, China with the lack of global shipping is about to wreck havoc on world supplies this summer

(Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Global Shipping Update: China Is About To Wreck Your Summer

SUNDAY, APR 24, 2022 – 07:30 PM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Let’s review shipping updates from Craig Fuller, Founder/CEO of FreightWaves and American Shipper.

Shanghai image from a Tweet embedded below

Vessels Waiting to Enter Port of Shanghai 

Video Images of Shanghai

Shanghai Covid Lockdown

China About to Wreck Your Summer

The coming volume drop in ocean container volumes (TEUs) leaving China for US ports is staggering. Our Ocean TEU Volume Index in SONAR now has a 14-day forward look at volumes, and it looks ugly. By early May 2022, we could see the lowest levels we’ve seen since May of 2020.

Deflation Anyone?

What About Kitchen Appliances?

“A large private consumer kitchenware manufacturer told me that they have seen a large contraction in demand over the past 8 weeks.”

Question of the Day

Is the slowdown in Shanghai at all welcome? That’s the big question. 

To the extent US merchants have ordered too much inventory in the face of falling demand, perhaps. 

But Fuller notes there are just too many questions. For starters, what is China doing? Every other country on the planet is loosening restrictions. 

What’s really going on?

What About the UK?

Meanwhile, Back in the States 

“Truckload contract load volumes dropped 4.5% this week. 7th consecutive week of declining contract truckload volumes. Next week is EOM, hoping for an uptick.”

More Deflation Calls

Recession Level Trucking Demand

Important Point

I believe you get the idea, shipping is a mess and there is a slowdown as well. A US housing bust is underway.

Existing Home Sales Decline Again, But the Big Bust Starts Next Month

But here’s an important point about deflation and recession: When Fuller makes a recession or deflation call, it is specifically about the trucking industry, not an overall assessment.

He made that point clear in my video interview of Fuller that I posted on April 14. 

See MishTalk TV with the CEO of FreightWaves: Trucking Recession or the Real Deal? for the video and discussion points.

Whereas he comments on the trucking industry, I am willing to go further. A very hard landing is on the way. 

Thanks again to Craig Fuller for the interview and all of his Tweets.

For my stock market update, please see Expect More Stock Market Pain Because It’s Coming

*  *  *

Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

GERMANY/EU

This is a no brainer; a complete embargo on Russian gas to the EU will land a devastating blow to Europe’s economy

(zerohedge)

Bundesbank Warns Of “Severe Crisis Scenario” Upon Russian Gas Embargo

SATURDAY, APR 23, 2022 – 08:45 AM

European Union officials are considering an all-out embargo on Russian natural gas imports, which could be presented to Brussels for review in the near term. Warnings about such a ban have sparked concern among Germany’s top bank, which indicated in a new monthly bulletin published Friday that an immediate, full-blown ban on Russian gas imports could exacerbate the threat of stagflation and lead to a devastating recession, according to FT

Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, warned that an embargo on Russian gas would cost its economy a staggering €180 billion in lost output this year as the price of energy products would soar to unimaginable levels and shock the economy into one of the deepest downturns in years. 

“In the severe crisis scenario, real GDP in the current year would fall by almost 2% compared to 2021.

“In addition, the inflation rate would be significantly higher for a longer period of time.” the Bundesbank said.

The German central bank noted the European Union’s economic recovery was already faltering from the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. An exogenous shock could trigger a recession. 

Discussion of a full-scale embargo on Russian gas has caused concern among companies operating in Germany’s mammoth manufacturing hubs. 

Martin Brudermüller, chief executive of the chemicals group BASF, said the gas embargo would plunge its German business into its “worst crisis since the second world war.”

Germany has the largest economy out of the 27-nation European Union and has vigorously opposed a ban on Russian energy imports, opting instead for a strategy that would phase out Russian energy products over time. 

“A rapid gas embargo would lead to loss of production, shutdowns, a further de-industrialization and the long-term loss of work positions in Germany,” AP quoted the chairmen of the BDA employer’s group and the DGB trade union confederation this week.

As much as 40% of the EU’s natural gas and 25% of its oil are dependent on Russia, primarily through pipelines. One-third of Germany’s total energy consumption is dependent on Russia. 

On Europe banning Russian crude oil, JPM’s commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva wrote this week, “full, immediate ban would likely drive Brent crude oil prices to $185/bbl as more than 4 mbd of Russian oil supplies would be displaced with neither room nor time to re-route them to China, India, or other potential substitute buyers.” 

Germany’s top bank is alarmed over the potential gas ban that could quickly destabilize Europe’s top economy. Then again, another economic crisis would give the ECB another excuse to roll out the money printers (again) and reverse the tightening course. 

end

UK

UK’s largest supermarkets begin rationing cooking oil amid supply disruption

(zerohedge)

UK’s Largest Supermarket Begins Rationing Cooking Oil Amid Supply Disruption 

SUNDAY, APR 24, 2022 – 07:35 AM

If record-high food prices weren’t enough. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has choked off the world of sunflower oil supply, forcing the largest supermarket in the UK to begin rationing. 

The Guardian reports that Tesco, with more than 4,000 retail stores, placed buying limits of three cooking oil bottles per customer. It follows Waitrose and Morrisons, other supermarket chains that set limits of just two per customer. 

The UK’s biggest retailer is experiencing sourcing issues with cooking oil, especially sunflower oil, which much of it comes from Ukraine. As retailers panic about sourcing edible oils, it has driven retail cooking oil prices up an average of 20% over the last year. 

Last week, British Retail Consortium’s Tom Holder told the BBC that rationing was temporary “to ensure availability for everyone.” He said supermarkets are “working with suppliers to ramp up production of alternative cooking oils, to minimize the impact on consumers.” 

Tesco said in a statement:

“We have good availability of cooking oils in stores and online. If a customer is unable to find their preferred oil, we have plenty of alternatives to choose from.

“To make sure all of our customers can continue to get what they need, we’ve introduced a temporary buying limit of three items per customer on products from our cooking oil range.” 

Supermarkets are also placing buying restrictions on olive and rapeseed oils. There was news Friday that the world’s largest palm oil producer, Indonesia, announced an export ban of all cooking oil and palm oil products, which adds even more tightness to global cooking oil supplies. 

Food rationing because of shortages are symptoms of an emerging global food crisis. Rockefeller Foundation President Rajiv Shah was nice enough last week to give Bloomberg Television’s David Westin a timeline on when this crisis could erupt. Shah believes “in the next six months.” 

As a reminder, the Rockefeller Foundation has views closely aligned with the World Economic Forum, advocating for a ‘global reset.’ The reset they want is for the global food supply chain. And it’s only out of the crisis they can implement change, such as no more red meat for the masses but rather insects. 

END

FINLAND

Not a very good time for Finland to join NATO and bring on wrath from Russia

(zerohedge)

Finland Says Will Likely Submit Application For NATO Membership In Coming Weeks

SATURDAY, APR 23, 2022 – 07:35 AM

While meeting with lawmakers in Sweden on Thursday, a top Finnish parliament foreign affairs official informed the country’s allies that Finland is likely to submit formal application to NATO within the coming weeks. It comes after earlier in the month Sweden already said it’s on the path to joining the Western military alliance, and after Russia has issued severe warnings that nuclear build-up would be triggered in the Baltic region by the Scandinavian countries doing so.

The possibility is being intensely discussed in Finnish parliament this week. Starting Tuesday the ruling party of the Social Democrats issued a statement saying, “It is evident that Russia’s actions have brought Finland several steps closer to military alignment being necessary,” according to Reuters, which took it as an indicator Helsinki has ‘inched closer’ to joining the alliance. 

And the following day, on Thursday, top Finnish officials met with their Swedish counterparts for an update on the progress of national debate, which is expected to continue into next month.Image: NATO

The Helsinki Times reported the following

Erkki Tuomioja (SDP), the deputy chairperson of the committee, told Swedish policy-makers that Finland will probably submit its membership application in the coming weeks, given that the move is backed by “a strong majority” of both the public and lawmakers.

“I stated this regardless of whether I personally think it’s a good or a bad thing,” he added to the newspaper in Stockholm.

Sweden signaled its intent to join, but appears to still be awaiting Finland’s final course, given the countries appear to be acting in some degree of coordination on the mattter. 

Member of Finnish parliament Jussi Halla-aho said Tuomioja had “made it clear that Finland is moving toward the pre-determined objective of joining the defense alliance.”

Further as Helsinki Times writes, “Tuomioja himself said the white paper the government released last week lays down a clear path to membership, adding that it would be important that the process yields the same outcome in Finland and Sweden.”

“It’d be very harmful to both if one was and the other wasn’t in Nato,” Halla-aho commented. “I hope Swedes proceed with the matter with roughly the same timetable so that we can reach a joint solution.”Via Helsinki Times/TT: Erkki Tuomioja (left) &Jussi Halla-aho (right) of the Finnish Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee in a photograph with Swedish Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist & Minister for Foreign Affairs Ann Linde in Stockholm.

On the same day as the Swedish and Finnish delegations met in Stockholm, the Kremlin reiterated threats aimed at both countries…

“Under the auspices of the US, Brussels has been pulling Sweden and Finland into its structures for a while, there have been various hybrid measures on the actual pulling in, under the guise of drills or training sessions,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said.

“We made all our warnings — both publicly and via bilateral channels. They know about this, so there are no surprises. They were informed about everything, what it will lead to,” she added ominously but without spelling out the specifics

Last week, Sky News cited the warnings of deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, as follows

Russia has said there will be “no more talk of a nuclear–free Baltic” if Sweden and Finland join NATO. Such a development would more than double the length of the military alliance’s land borders with Russia, Moscow added. 

Meanwhile The Real Fly lays out the possible scenarios and consequences in the below…

* * *

This is an escalation. There are two ways to look at this and two ways alone. The leaders of Finland aren’t afraid of provoking military conflict with Russia, whom they believe “have gone crazy.” In other words, they are okay with doing things that will directly cause the deaths of their citizenry.

The flip side is independence from Russia means being able to make decisions for Finland without fear of reprisal. If they folded on the non existent NATO matter, why Russia might ask for Finnish ports to protect them against a German invasion of Leningrad.

No matter what side you fall on, this is worse for the specter of peace and only hastens the war path NATO is on with Russia.

end

GERMANY

Germany borrows another 40 billion euros to cushion its fallout from the war in Ukraine

(zerohedge)

Germany Borrows Another 40 Billion Euros To Cushion Fallout From War In Ukraine

SUNDAY, APR 24, 2022 – 10:00 AM

Famously debt-averse Germany has decided that it will need to borrow nearly 40 billion euros ($43 billion) to cushion its economy from the blowback caused by the war in Ukraine.

They plan to use the money to blunt the economic and financial impact of the war (ie on more handouts for the country’s citizens), which has led to surging energy prices that must be shouldered by German companies and consumers, according to Bloomberg, who cited several sources close to the German government.

Once finalized, the proposal from Finance Minister Christian Lindner will then be sent to the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, for approval.

Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the German government has ended its longstanding opposition to debt and unleashed an unprecedented borrowing binge, with net new debt of €130 billion euros in 2020 and a record €215 billion euros in 2021.

Source: Bloomberg

The ruling coalition has suspended constitutional limits on new borrowing for three consecutive years to deal with the economic fallout from the pandemic.

In addition to this latest tranche of money, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also announced a special fund worth €100 billion to pay for a massive increase in Germany’s military spending, which will also help it meet NATO’s military spending goal of 2% of economic output per year. Lindner has said that borrowing to finance the fund will be spread over several years, which means borrowing for 2022 will likely exceed €140 billion, depending on how much money from the fund will be attributed to this fiscal year

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA//UKRAINE

Putin will not allow AZOV NAZI militants to surrender in Mariupol

((zerohedge)

Putin Tells EU Chief That Kiev Not Allowing Azov Militants To Surrender In Mariupol

FRIDAY, APR 22, 2022 – 04:40 PM

Russia’s defense ministry announced Friday that remaining Ukrainian fighters from Azov battalion are currently completely blocked from making any exit from Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, after some further successful civilian evacuations were reported earlier. This after the Russian military’s ‘surrender or die’ ultimatum has previously expired. 

But as this last stand for Mariupol is still underway, and with President Putin earlier ordering the military to simply “seal off” the giant complex, as opposed to sending troops into an underground, cavernous complex – Putin is accusing the Kiev government of not allowing its fighters to leave.Destroyed steel plant in Azovstal, via city council

Putin made the charge in a Friday phone conversation with European Council President Charles Michel, claiming that Ukrainian authorities are “forcing its troops to continue fighting despite repeated offers to surrender by the Russian side.”

The Russian leader said as follows

“All servicemen of the Ukrainian armed forces, militants of the nationalist battalions and foreign mercenaries who lay down their arms are guaranteed life, decent treatment in accordance with international law and the provision of qualified medical care,” Putin told Michel, according to the Kremlin.

“But the Kyiv regime does not allow this opportunity to be used.”

The EU chief has already come under fire for holding the 90-minute phone call with Putin. For example, Politico charged that “the lengthy telephone call by Michel risked lending renewed legitimacy to the Russian leader, who is mostly isolated and ostracized by his global counterparts these days.”

However, as we’ve highlighted lately, the fact that there’s an emerging diplomatic war between the West and Moscow parallel to the ground war doesn’t bode well at all for the now increasingly distant prospect of a negotiated settlement or ceasefire.

Instead, NATO and Russia seem to be spiraling toward direct conflict more and more as each week goes by – also given that at this point over 300 Russian diplomats have been booted from Europe, and as Washington refuses to so much as engage the Russian ambassador to the US. But obviously any path forward for peace would have to involve some level of open and honest communications.

The Russian ambassador in D.C. this week complained that the Biden administration has imposed a communications “blockade” on him – refusing to engage the embassy at all.

end

Putin has lot interest in diplomacy

(zerohedge)

Putin Has ‘Lost Interest’ In Diplomacy

SUNDAY, APR 24, 2022 – 12:00 PM

Vladimir Putin is no longer open to diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine, which suggests he’s focusing on a ‘land-grab’ strategy instead, according to the Financial Times, citing three people briefed on conversations with the Russian President.

The Russian president was said to have been seriously considering a peace deal in the wake of several battlefield setbacks last month.

Early peace talks faltered following a meeting in Istanbul in late March, after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky accused the Kremlin of committing war crimes against civilians in Mariupol and Bucha.

According to Putin, peace efforts were at a “dead end,” and was particularly upset over the sinking of the Russian Black Sea flagship, Moskva, according to two of FT‘s sources.

There was hope for a deal. Putin was going back and forth. He needs to find a way to come out of this a winner,” said one source, who added that when the Moskva sank, “Putin was against signing anything. [ . . . ] after the Moskva he doesn’t look like a winner, because it was humiliating.”

According to a relatively new narrative, Putin has a ‘distorted’ view of the war due to his own generals, and Russian television, painting a victorious picture – which has led the Russian president to insist that civilians were not targeted during the attacks.

“Putin sincerely believes in the nonsense he hears on [Russian] television and he wants to win big,” said one source.

Intermediaries such as Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, European Council president Charles Michel and billionaire Chelsea FC owner Roman Abramovich have been trying to convince Putin to meet Zelensky in hope they can break the deadlock.

Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have placed most other issues on the back burner while trying to thrash out a deal on guarantees for Kyiv’s security if it declares neutrality and abandons its drive to join Nato.

But Putin told Michel in a call on Friday that the talks had run aground because Ukraine “put up a wall” and said it “was not the right time” to meet Zelensky, according to a person briefed on that conversation. -FT

According to negotiators, Putin’s new stance on diplomacy means Russia believes it can capture more Ukrainian territory.

On Saturday, Zelensky said that he wanted negotiations to continue unless people in Mariupol continued to die, or if Russian authorities in the Kherson region were to stage a separatist referendum.

In short, peace talks are going nowhere fast.

end

Putin condemns the Blinken visit to Ukraine and its arms shipments

(zerohedge)

“Pouring Fuel On The Flames”: Kremlin Condemns Blinken Visit To Ukraine & US Arms Shipments

MONDAY, APR 25, 2022 – 01:25 PM

Moscow has reacted to the Sunday visit of top US officials to Kiev where they met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in which Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin discussed specific weapons systems to soon be transferred into Ukraine, also as Zelensky and his team reportedly requested heavier weaponry and in larger quantities.

“What the Americans are doing is pouring oil on the flames,” Russia’s ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov told Rossiya 24 TV channel. “I see only an attempt to raise the stakes, to aggravate the situation, to see more losses.”

Antonov confirmed that the Kremlin recently delivered another diplomatic note of protest to the US condemning the arms shipments and formally requesting their cessation, but said no response has been given. 

Instead, the “response” came in the form of the Pentagon chief meeting face-to-face to Zelensky while saying “we have the mindset that we want to help them win.” And specifying further the purpose of the hundreds of millions of dollars in approved military aid making its way to Ukraine: 

“We believe that they can win if they have the right equipment,” Defense Secretary Austin said, and added: “the right support, and we’re going to do everything we can … to ensure that gets to them.”

Austin in statements given to the press after the Zelensky meeting went so far as to say Washington’s strategy is to see a “weakened” Russia

“We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” the Pentagon chief said. “It has already lost a lot of military capability, and a lot of its troops quite frankly” – he added, speaking of the Russian military.

But Antonov in his Monday statements emphasized further: “We stressed the unacceptability of this situation when the United States of America pours weapons into Ukraine, and we demanded an end to this practice.” The Kremlin has also said it views any Western military aid entering the country as a “legitimate target”. 

There have been recent reports and admissions by US defense officials, meanwhile, that once the Western weapons enter the conflict, intelligence doesn’t actually keep track of them. In short, the Pentagon has no idea where its weapons end up.

An unnamed official bluntly explained to CNN last week that the White House has “almost zero” ability to track the arms once they enter war-torn Ukraine, saying, “we have fidelity for a short time, but when it enters the fog of war, we have almost zero. It drops into a big black hole, and you have almost no sense of it at all after a short period of time.”

end

Must be brain dead using the rails as they are easy targets for the Russians

(zerohedge)

Russia Ramps Up Attacks On Ukraine Rail Lines To Thwart NATO Arms Shipments

MONDAY, APR 25, 2022 – 03:45 PM

The Russian military is ramping up efforts to thwart Western arms deliveries into Ukraine, on Monday striking at least six railway stations and facilities. In a statement late in the day the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed it attacked the locations, including taking out train tracks and transport lines, as they were being used “to supply Ukrainian forces with foreign weapons,” according to state RIA.

Earlier in the day Ukrainian Railways authority head Oleksander Kamyshin had confirmed that five of the stations were hit, saying there were at this point uknown numbers of casualties, during what was described as an “unusually long” continuous air raid that lasted a reported two hours Monday morning.

Ukraine’s military command saw it as part of ongoing Russian efforts to completely disable the country’s military transport infrastructure, specifically with an eye on foreign arms transfers as what the Kremlin previously dubbed “legitimate targets”. Kiev and the UN have also condemned attacks on civilians and vital civilian transport at a time of unprecedented numbers of internally displaced war refugees.

According to The Guardian:

Kamyshin said one of the attacks took place at about 8.30am in Krasne, near Lviv in western Ukraine, at what the governor of the region described as a “traction substation” that handled power supply to other lines. He said emergency workers were at the scene.

Maksym Kozytskyi, the head of the regional government in Lviv, said that during the attack Ukrainian anti-aircraft systems destroyed another missile fired at the region.

A follow-up Ukrainian military statement posted to social media alerted the public that the Russians “are trying to destroy the supply routes of military-technical assistance from partner states. To do this, they focus strikes on railway junctions.”

There were prior attacks on train stations by Russia during the opening days of this month, but also against other infrastructure seen as having a dual civilian and military use, including power plants and oil refineries.

Very likely these efforts to disrupt and destroy arms shipments will only ramp up, potentially brining Russia and NATO into more direct confrontation. On Monday the hugely provocative words of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin are being widely reported wherein he said just after his trip to Kiev where alongside Secretary Blinken he met President Zelensky face-to-face that Washington has an aim to weaken Russia

“We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” the Pentagon chief said. “It has already lost a lot of military capability, and a lot of its troops quite frankly” – he added, speaking of the Russian military.

The Moskva Riddle – The Burning Platform

Inbox

Robert Hryniak1:16 PM (8 minutes ago)
to

If it was a NATO job, then yes Russia will retaliate at a time and place of its’ choosing. There are many juicy vulnerable targets. And no doubt it will be categorized as a escalation. Should we really see this come to be known, then we are being led to a war no one will win, by deliberate intent. The idea of tempting a nuclear exchange is beyond frightening.

We should not be so naive to think whatever the truth is that China will kept in the dark. Instead, if this turned out to be a NATO caper then the US amongst others will be staring at the combined weight of China and Russia at a time when globalization is dying, thanks to the delusional bunch. And at time, when world food stocks are approaching all time lows. This will lead to food inflation while at the same time causing deflation as supply chain collapse destroys the economic momentum of industry. In addition, it is logical to think that food supply will be accorded by various aligned interest groups arising from current events.

What is yet to come into focus is the changing global trade patterns which are already being changed in real time by individual currency swaps between nations. Even in the  world of finance new patterns will emerge as the world comes to realize that the mainstay settlement mechanism called SWIFT has been politicized as weapon by the US and will shunned both by nations and corporations eager not to fall into a arbitrary trap of capital seizure and denial. When the sanctity of settlement is abused for personal or national benefit, confidence declines leaving room for other entrants to fill a void of trusted settlement mechanisms. It is why we have seen Bitcoin and other entries for this prize. And why China is rushing their Electronic Yuan in hopes of snagging this win at the expense of the USD. Since all settlement mechanisms are only a means to settle a value exchange for labor and widely accepted we will see many more variants. Before any dominant means is globally accepted. While at the same time the scope and use of the USD as settlement will decline. This has a most meaningful impact on all other currencies reliant on it for value and thus will impact everyone living in a western society.

While not seen or even grasped by many people, some of who are in sheer denial or delusion, globalization is dead as we have known it and we are sailing into uncharted waters, where change and disruptions are inevitable. These times are going to be eventful.

END

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE/

Now the CDC issues USA nationwide alert about a mysterious adenovirus hepatitis in children.

Generally adenovirus are common but can attack if immune systems are jeopardized

zerohedge)

CDC Issues Nationwide Alert About Mysterious Hepatitis Cases In Children

FRIDAY, APR 22, 2022 – 08:20 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a health advisory after children in Alabama were discovered to have adenovirus and hepatitis infections.A general view of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters in Atlanta on Sept. 30, 2014. (Tami Chappell/Reuters)

They said that a “cluster of children” have been infected with both hepatitis and adenovirus after clinicians at a large hospital in Alabama issued a notice to the CDC in November 2021.

“Five pediatric patients with significant liver injury, including three with acute liver failure, who also tested positive for adenovirus” were reported by the hospital to the CDC, according to the agency, adding that the children were previously healthy and that none had COVID-19.

Case-finding efforts at this hospital identified four additional pediatric patients with hepatitis and adenovirus infection for a total of nine patients admitted from October 2021 through February 2022,” the agency further wrote. Two of those patients required a liver transplant, and no patients died.

Other than the nine Alabama cases, two have been identified in North Carolina, health department officials told local media.

Authorities are now investigating a link between pediatric hepatitis and adenovirus cases. The agency also has asked clinicians and state public health officials to report if children under the age of 10 are found to have elevated aspartate aminotransferase or alanine aminotransferase, suggesting liver problems.

“Cases of pediatric hepatitis in children who tested negative for hepatitis viruses A, B, C, D, and E were reported earlier this month in the United Kingdom, including some with adenovirus infection,” the agency wrote.

The CDC also noted that five children had adenovirus type 41, which “typically presents as diarrhea, vomiting, and fever,” and “it can often be accompanied by respiratory symptoms.

At least 100 children in the United Kingdom under the age of 10 have been diagnosed with acute hepatitis from an unknown cause, authorities have said. UK officials said there is “no link” between the cases and COVID-19 vaccines.

Cases have also been found in Denmark, Spain, and the Netherlands, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control in a Tuesday announcement.

Hepatitis is an inflammation of the liver that can be caused by a viral infection, alcohol, prescription drugs, over-the-counter medications acetaminophen, high doses of certain herbal supplements, toxins, and various medical conditions. Hepatitis viruses, which spread via bodily fluids, can also cause liver inflammation.

Symptoms include abdominal pain—namely in the upper right part of the abdomen right below the ribs—dark-colored urine, light-colored stools, and jaundice, which is the yellowing of the skin and whites of the eyes.

GLOBAL ISSUES

Financial Markets Brace For Stagflation As Global Growth Optimism Sinks

MONDAY, APR 25, 2022 – 03:25 PM

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Waning optimism over global economic growth prospects and rising stagflation fears have prompted investors to seek shelter in investment hedges.

Earlier this month, the Bank of America’s (BofA) monthly survey of fund managers found that optimism about the international economy has slumped to an all-time low.

Of the respondents, 71 percent were pessimistic about global growth in the coming months, as risks of a recession have turned into the top “tail risk” for global financial markets, the survey revealed.  

Should the United States emulate the economy of the 1970s—a blend of stagnating economic growth and skyrocketing inflation—how will the financial markets respond to this type of environment?   

Investment firms have been reallocating their portfolios, pouring into crude oil and other commodities, and placing long positions in resource and healthcare stocks, according to the bank’s poll.

With increasing stagflation risks, Goldman Sachs believes that passive investing may no longer be a successful approach for investors, meaning that the standard 60/40 portfolio—60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds—might not be an effective strategy in a market of inflation, volatility, and uncertainty.  

“I would say that the playbook for investments and portfolio construction of the period since the financial crisis may not be relevant anymore. We have entered a period of higher inflation, higher volatility, more uncertainty,” said Maria Vassalou, co-CIO of multi-asset solutions in the firm’s Asset Management Division. “There is need to rethink how we construct portfolios. Passive investing will be less relevant going forward. I think there is a big case to be made for active investments. There is also a much bigger argument for dynamic asset allocation going forward.”  

Although signs are forming that a recession could be on the horizon, the risks are not serious enough for investors to overhaul their portfolios, Vassalou added.  

With inflation expected to remain persistent and stickier, investors might need to consider embracing a more dynamic inflation strategy, says Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments. She noted that such a portfolio would comprise real estate investment trusts (REITs), precious metals, energy commodities, and robotics. Another theme that traders need to home in on is dividends.

Central banks around the world began hiking last spring. There have been over 100 hikes since that time and the global economy is slowing. The Fed has lagged this trend and now finds itself way behind the curve with a well-telegraphed hiking regime and tightening plan into a slowing economy,” Tengler wrote in a research note. “We expect to see weakness in the coming quarters in the cyclical names. Investors will flock to reliable growers.”  

Despite equities being resilient during the earnings season, there has been a transition to real assets, purports Mimi Duff, an investment strategist at GenTrust.  

At the same time, Duff said in a recent research note, clean energy positions and taking advantage of decimated sectors could provide opportunities.  

“We continue to like the clean energy theme: expect the world to reduce dependency on Russian oil, gas, and coal, diversifying supply, improving energy efficiency, and investing in renewables. We’ve recently added to positions we already held in clean energy and Uranium,” Duff stated.  

“We are carefully considering when allocations to other very beaten-up sectors (for instance, tech) so stay tuned there. We continue to monitor valuations.”  

Is Stagflation Coming?  

Economists project that the first-quarter GDP growth rate will be around 1 percent. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model shows a 1.3 percent expansion in the January-to-March period, while the latest Conference Board forecasts anticipate the U.S. economy will slow to 1.5 percent.  

If these projections are accurate, it would be significantly down from the previous quarter’s growth rate of 6.9 percent.  

Is the world’s largest economy about to embark upon stagflation as the plethora of headwinds persist and intensify? For the last couple of months, this has been the concern with many economists and financial analysts discussing the possibility of a prolonged slowdown amid soaring price inflation, a global supply chain crisis, lower consumer spending, and the war in Eastern Europe.  

Market strategists have been alluding to multiple signals, including soaring wholesale prices and a recent bearish small business report to spotlight a weaker economy.  

survey by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) learned that inflation topped labor quality as entrepreneurs’ most important issue. The same poll discovered that nearly three-quarters (72 percent) of small business owners raised prices, and another half of smaller companies plan to continue raising the costs of their goods and services.  

The producer price index (PPI) advanced 11.2 percent year-over-year in March, the biggest monthly jump since November 2010.  

Others point to the various monetary policy mistakes committed by the Federal Reserve, with many arguing that it is going to be challenging for the central bank to curb inflation while trying to achieve a “soft landing” for the post-pandemic economy.  

“We have a huge inflation problem, and the Fed continues to drag their feet. Even though they acknowledge that it’s a big problem, they’re doing nothing about solving it,” Peter Schiff, the president and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, said on his podcast SchiffGold. “To the extent that the economy gets weaker, they’re going to try to expand the money supply even more aggressively to try to stimulate it, which is why we’re going to have more inflation during the next recession.” 

end

VACCINE MANDATES/

VACCINE INJURIES/

/VACCINE IMPACT

Following children’s vaccination in UK:

W.H.O. Issues Global Alert about new form of Severe Hepatitis Affecting Children; Pfizer Study Suggests COVID Vaccine to Blame

April 22, 2022 3:58 pm

On April 15 2022, the World Health Organisation issued a global alert about a new form of severe acute Hepatitis with an unknown aetiology (cause) affecting previously healthy children in the UK over the last month. Cases have also been notified in Spain and Ireland. Tests have excluded all previously known Hepatitis viruses. 74 cases have been found so far, with more expected. The WHO alert said: “The clinical syndrome in identified cases is of acute hepatitis with markedly elevated liver enzymes, often with jaundice, sometimes preceded by gastrointestinal symptoms, in children principally up to 10 years old. Some cases have required transfer to specialist children’s liver units and six children have undergone liver transplantation. As of 11 April, no death has been reported among these cases and one epidemiologically linked case has been detected.” The announcement comes after the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) recently detected higher than usual rates of liver inflammation (hepatitis) in children. Similar cases are also being assessed in Scotland. Hepatitis is a condition that affects the liver and may occur for a number of reasons, including several viral infections common in children. However, in the cases under investigation the common viruses that cause hepatitis have not been detected. A case reports paper published at PubMed in September 2021 entitled Auto-immune hepatitis following COVID vaccination described two cases of auto-immune hepatitis following Covid-19 vaccination.  No investigation of Covid-19 vaccination as a possible complicating factor in the development of the new form of hepatitis has yet taken place, but it’s the very first place they should be looking. It was assumed that the Covid-19 vaccine’s spike protein would remain at the injection site and last up to several weeks like other proteins produced in the body. But as we all know assumptions make an ass out of u and me, and Pfizer’s own study shows this is not the case and that spike proteins circulate in the body following mRNA Covid-19 vaccination, and the highest concentration ends up in the liver.

Read More…

Vaccine Impact


Vaccine ImpactDestruction of Food Begins in Shanghai with Fences Installed to Keep People Locked DownApril 24, 2022 2:14 pmWhile China works hard to suppress what is currently happening in Shanghai and other places in China that have strict lockdowns by deleting social media posts as quickly as possible, some videos and images are being captured and preserved that show how life has become pure hell in Shanghai, with citizens starving to death and being locked down in cages like animals. Deliberate destruction of food is reportedly happening on a large scale, blaming “COVID” for contaminating the food as they use cotton swab PCR tests to test animals like chickens and fish, while reportedly destroying many tons of fresh produce. This week fencing appeared overnight in many places to lockdown people in their homes and apartments, and this even made the corporate news cycle this weekend, with the BBC and the Associated Press covering the story. When you read the corporate news accounts, however, they will give some justification for these actions by reporting on the alleged increase in COVID cases, paving the way for similar measures to happen in the U.S. and other places where maybe the measures will not be quite as harsh as what China is doing, as this is simply a continuation of the massive propaganda media hyping fear over a “virus” that continues to be used to justify medical tyranny and the suspension of all appearances of law and order in the name of the “pandemic.” Here in the U.S. people like Anthony Fauci and Dr. Oz, who is now aligned with Donald Trump, have publicly stated that the measures China are taking to lockdown their populations are “working” to stop the spread of COVID, which should be a wake-up call to everyone about what we are probably facing in the near future here in the U.S. and around the world.Read More…California Governor Gavin Newsom Is Creating a Water, Energy, and Food DisasterApril 24, 2022 3:22 pmCalifornia Gov. Gavin Newsom this week claimed he was taking major action to address the drought affecting California and the West. More than 90% of California is in severe drought, up from 65% just one year ago. In truth, Newsom is starving California of both water and energy. We are in the worst energy crisis in 50 years and yet Newsom is planning to shut down the largest single source of energy in California, Diablo Canyon nuclear plant. Meanwhile, he has failed to build a single new large water project, despite the fact that California voters in 2014 passed a $2.7 billion water bond to pay for them. The result of Newsom’s leadership failures could be catastrophic. California is the fifth largest producer of food in the world. We are the largest producer of dairy and food in the U.S. Over a third of America’s vegetables and two-thirds of its fruits and nuts are grown here. And producing food requires water. Already the world faces terrible famines because of an energy crisis created in part by pro-scarcity environmentalists. Now, Newsom’s actions, and inaction, are making scarcity worse.
Read More…

Are You Prepared for Food Shortages? FBI Issues Warning

April 23, 2022 5:01 pm

I have been warning the public for many years now about how fragile our food system is, where just a handful of companies control most of our nation’s food, as well as most of the world’s food. Last year I published an article that identified who these globalists are, written by Sam Parker of Behind the News Network, who wrote: “Genocide is an intent of this system, not a side-effect.” There are many indications that food shortages will soon start, from the war in Ukraine to the lockdowns in Shanghai and China, that are putting tremendous pressure on supply chains that will most certainly impact food security across the globe. In addition, it has been widely reported this week in both the corporate and alternative media that there have been a rash of food processing plants catching on fire all of a sudden. But perhaps the biggest indicator that food shortages are on the horizon in the not-too-distant future, was a published FBI warning regarding potential “Ransomware Attacks on Agricultural Cooperatives.” If you are looking for a food that can be stored indefinitely and provide security against food shortages, you need to be looking into storing whole grains, such as wheat berries. Whole grains have historically been the best defense against food shortages, because in their unmilled stated, they can be stored indefinitely if stored properly, and then either cooked directly as a cereal like rice, or ground into flour for baked goods. They can also be sprouted for fresh sprouts, or even grown into grass and juiced as “wheatgrass juice,” providing a powerhouse of nutrition just from simple grains.

Read More…


Michael Every

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

Rabobank: When The “Food System” Breaks Down, Everything Will Break Down With It

MONDAY, APR 25, 2022 – 10:21 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Frogs in Boiling Water

The headlines today will naturally be all about French President Macron winning re-election over Le Pen. There was such a flood of market commentary before the vote underlining that a Le Pen victory would have been a larger shock than Brexit, etc., and EUR was up in early Asian trading despite the fact that nobody actually thought Le Pen would win: either people secretly feared she might, or it’s ‘buy the rumour, buy the fact’.

However, here is an uncomfortable fact: Le Pen scored around 42% of the vote. 5 years ago she got 34%. When her father ran against Chirac in 2002, he got 18%. Think 2027 on that basis. Indeed, if you look at the first round in 2022, Macron only won just over quarter of those who bothered voting, so around 21% of the eligible public, with the populist right and left hoovering up much of the rest, and the two establishment parties collapsing. 91% of those who voted for leftist Melenchon in the first round and Macron in the second say they did so to bloc Le Pen, not because Macron would be a good president. What kind of electoral mandate is that? Eyes will now turn to the French parliamentary elections and traditional promises to ‘heal divisions’: howThe French, like *all* economies, democratic or authoritarian, are Al Gore’s analogy of frogs in a pot of water whose temperature is slowing rising ever-closer to boiling point.

The rumor was that if Marcon won there would be an EU oil embargo post-election: will this now occur? If so, markets will be roiled. If not, Europe will be roiled. Indeed, even given a further defeat for right-wing populism in Slovenia overnight, the EU remains deeply divided. In the eyes of many in the east, Germany is part of the problem, not part of the solution over Ukraine, as is Austria, which just rejected Ukrainian EU membership. What about France, given Macron’s predilection for failed Russian diplomacy and his constant harping on about European “strategic autonomy”? One wonders what the EU intellectuals who claim the Ukraine war is the fault of the US, and that the best response would be to accept spheres of influence, would say if the US were to agree and walk away from NATO given Europe is in Russia’s sphere, geographically, and that is what France sometimes seems to want geopolitically. China is very big on that too as part of its new Global Peace Initiative.

Yet for now, a Russian commander in Ukraine states the plan is to take the east and south as far as the Russian-speaking breakaway region of Transnistria, implying an attack on Moldova. That’s not possible now. It doesn’t mean it won’t be soon. Indeed, the FT reports three individuals who have spoken to Putin say that he is not interested in a peace deal now, and instead wants a land-grab he can present as a victory. In short, while many in the EU may not be interested in this war, it is interested in them.

Meanwhile, as if that were not enough, things are heating up on other fronts. In Covid-struck Shanghai, there are photos of gates being welded over the entrances of residential buildings, and an allegation from Radio Free Asia that authorities in Hunan are demanding passports be handed over in response to a surge in online searches about emigration.

The lockdown’s impact on the Chinese economy is huge, including on ports. There is going to be another slump in shipments to the US and Europe, which industry experts call “staggering” in scale. That will create bullwhip effects as supply dries up even as demand fall offs (due to high prices), thus keeping prices high rather than allowing them to adjust down. Then there will be a flood of goods when things re-open, creating US logistical logjams and price-gouging all over again. As Fortune puts it: ‘Companies are beginning to panic’: Experts say China’s lockdowns will make inflation and the supply chain nightmare even worse”.

This lockdown will also hit intra-Asia trade heading to the US and Europe. As Freight Waves puts it, “Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Indonesia and Cambodia have factories waiting on crucial raw materials needed to finish goods ranging from apparel and footwear to furniture. This pipeline saw an expansion in the trade as more American importers diversified their manufacturing out of China as a way to work around the China tariffs. But what this pandemic has revealed is even with this “manufacturing diversification,”  the dependency on China has never been fully severed.” So, a pan-Asian slowdown; more shortages; and a stronger argument for total supply-chain separation from China rather than just one degree, or to give up and get used to lock-downs.

Friday also saw Indonesia cancel all exports of palm oil from 28 April until further notice. That takes out the world’s largest producer and exporter of this key vegetable oil at the same time as Ukraine’s sunflower oil is also largely off the world market. Naturally, this is going to have a vast knock-on effect across the global agri complex – and we were already seeing rationing in some Western supermarkets. Moreover, this underlines the recent trend of food exporters opting to stop doing so; on top of some countries using food exports as a ‘weapon’; and the US ‘weaponizing’ their currency.

Together, this changes the geo-economic equation for net food importers who had been relying on exporting widgets in the assumption the dollars earned could be exchanged for food: and when that system breaks down, everything breaks down with it; complex global supply chains stop working. Yes, we aren’t there yet, but the progression is similar to that of the French elections: 18%; 34%; 42%, etc.

However, rather than an instant Mad Max-style return to global barter, or a ‘Bretton Woods 3’, we will likely see the US dollar remain the lesser of all other evils for most of the global economy, if not all of it, alongside national-security protectionism and even greater dollar weaponization: with us or against us; in or out of the global network, and end-consumers in the West. Indeed, compared to most Europeans, many Americans are quite capable of thriving in a Mad Max world, and some seem to crave it. The macro reflects the micro.

One way to boost the US dollar and deal with the risks of supply-side inflation becoming entrenched in wages, even if misplaced, is higher US rates, which are coming. Yet that puts ever greater pressure on all kinds of markets.

Keep looking at the key cross USD/JPY, trading at 128.60 this morning. Something is going to give there if the Fed sticks to its present path.

  • Is it higher JGB yields, and so an end to de facto MMT, unless Japan can re-establish a trade surplus despite soaring commodity import prices? There is a global (mercantilist) lesson in that which we have been flagging for years, and it’s not a good one for long corporate supply chains. It could also throw a wrench in global capital flows given Japan’s traditional role as capital exporter – might we see another jerk higher in Treasury yields too as a result?
  • Or, if the BOJ ‘holds the door’, is it a lower JPY instead? In which case, how long until others follow?

Friday and today both saw USD/CNY and USD/CNH begin to creak significantly, with lower daily fixings for CNY than expected and a large market move lower – CNH was trading at 6.53 this morning vs. 6.32 in mid-February, CNY at 6.55. Yes, on a trade-weighted basis this is merely China trying to slide down the string of a rising US dollar balloon rather than outright depreciation. Yet given USD/CNY is all the market looks at, it’s significant – especially for already-struggling Chinese borrowers. For example, if we were to see the USD up 10% from here, it would suggest USD/CNY well past 7 unless China wants to hold onto that balloon forever. Who is hedged for that? And what about the price of commodities still priced in dollars?

Markets are already reeling almost across the board – except for the geopolitical trade described above. The S&P is -10.4% year-to-date (y-t-d); China’s Shanghai index was -16.6% at time of writing, and a market-leading Chinese fund just shifted its equity exposure to zero; Bloomberg’s global aggregate fixed income index is -10.4%; Bitcoin was -15.6%; and yet even given the recent dip in oil, Bloomberg’s commodity index is up 30.1% y-t-d; and the broad US dollar index is up 5.8%.

So, savour the Macron victory, Mr Market; but you are not luxuriating in a hot-tub drinking champagne – you are in a very different body of water.

END

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil Prices Paralyzed Between Russia Sanctions And China Lockdowns

MONDAY, APR 25, 2022 – 12:35 PM

By John Kemp, senior energy analyst at Reuters

Portfolio investors purchased petroleum last week for the first time in four weeks, but overall positioning remained subdued by the high cost of margin and large uncertainties surrounding both crude supply and demand.

Hedge funds and other money managers bought the equivalent of 14 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-related futures and options contracts in the week to April 19.

But the position has remained unchanged since mid-March as opposing concerns about the sanctions-related loss of production from Russia and lockdown-related loss of consumption in China have cancelled each other out.

The combined net long position of 553 million barrels is in only the 39th percentile for all weeks since 2013 while the ratio of long to short positions at 4.59:1 is somewhat higher in the 59th percentile.

Fund managers remain moderately bullish about the outlook for prices but extreme volatility has made it risky and expensive to maintain existing positions or initiate new ones. 

Reflecting higher margin calls, the total number of open futures positions for all categories of trader is the lowest for seven years, although it has stabilised in the last fortnight after falling sharply since mid-February. 

The most recent week showed hedge funds buying Brent (+27 million barrels), U.S. gasoline (+3 million) and U.S. diesel (+1 million) but selling NYMEX and ICE WTI (-16 million) and European gas oil (-1 million).

Fund managers rotated out of WTI into Brent, likely reflecting the massive offer of extra barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the United States and possible European Union sanctions on imports from Russia.

Overall, funds are much more bullish for middle distillates and other refined products than for crude, reflecting strain on the refining system from strong demand for diesel and gas oil by manufacturers and freight firms.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0710 DOWN .0025 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED 

USA/ YEN 128.24   DOWN  0.130 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2749 DOWN   0.0061

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 158.41 PTS OR  5.13%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 769.18 PTS OR 3.73%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.51%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED  

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 768.18 PTS OR 3.73% 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 158.41 PTS OR 5.13%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.51% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 513.48 PTS OR1.90%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1906.70

silver:$23/55

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 101.51  UP 29  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.88%  DOWN 9  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.239%  DOWN 1 AND 1/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.84%// DOWN 8   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.59  DOWN 31   points in basis points yield ./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 75 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLSTO +0.835% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.75% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0708  DOWN .0070    or 70 basis points

USA/Japan: 127.70 DOWN 0.666 OR YEN UP 67  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2709 DOWN .01007 OR 101  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN 0.0102 OR 102 BASIS pts DOWN to 1.2770

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.5595  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.5845

TURKISH LIRA:  14.77  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.239

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 13  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  2.778% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.871  DOWN7 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 101.81 UP 59   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 132/89PTS OR 1.77%

German Dax :  CLOSED  DOWN 223.40 POINTS OR 1.58%

Paris CAC CLOSED  DOWN  134.23PTS OR 2.05% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 69.20 PTS OR 0.80%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 371.44 PTS OR 1.53%

WTI Oil price 95.89   12: EST

Brent Oil:  99.84  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  73.16   UP  2    3/10  RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.835

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0717 DOWN  .0039   OR DOWN 39 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2741 DOWN  .0069 or down 69 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 128.01 DOWN 0.356//YEN UP 36 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2718 UP .0047 (CDN dollar DOWN 47 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 99.24

Brent OIL:  103.05

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.810 DOWN 10 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.947  DOWN 7  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.78

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE:  73.125 DOWN 2 & 1/3 ROUBLES (ROUBLE UP  2 AND 1/3 ROUBLES/USA

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 238.06 PTS OR 0.70%

NASDAQ 100 UP 176.36 PTS OR 1.32%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 27.20 DOWN 1.01 PTS (3.58%)

GLD: 177.07 DOWN 3.22 PTS OR 1.79%

SLV/ 21.83 DOWN .48 PTS OR 2.15%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Big-Tech & Bitcoin Shrug Off Beijing Bloodbath; Bond Yields, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered

MONDAY, APR 25, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Chinese stocks were Johnny-Depp’d overnight amid extended lockdowns, record COVID cases and deaths (worst month since 2016)…

Source: Bloomberg

No signs of The National Team at all (even as China cuts FX reserve ratio).

But US equities held it all together until the cash open when everything puked (except Nasdaq). That drop in stocks caught a bid as Europe closed (surprise surprise) and rallied back to unch (Nasdaq outperformed) and the TWTR news seemed to spur stocks even higher with everything turning green and Nasdaq leading the charge…

Tech outperformed as Energy lagged…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps dropped to their lowest since Dec 2020 (down over 22% from the highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

But don’t worry, Cramer says “the bear market is over”…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1507452206890762242&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fus-big-tech-shrugs-beijing-bloodbath-bond-yields-bullion-black-gold-battered&sessionId=4c3c05860e344ddd389bfaeea31956f071b1d4ec&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=c8fe9736dd6fb%3A1649830956492&width=550px

Before we leave equity land, the Twitter board confirms it has accepted Musk’s offer to take the firm private for $54.20 ($44 billion)…

Bonds were bid with the belly of the curve outperforming (and the wings worst)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied once again…

Source: Bloomberg

…as Yuan faded further…

Source: Bloomberg

Ruble soared to its strongest relative to the Euro in 2 years…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin dumped and pumped on the day, plunging down to a low $38k handle before ripping back above $40k…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum also surged, topping $3000…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices plunged as China lockdown anxiety trumped geopolitical risk premia again with WTI down 5% and Brent back below $100. However, once Europe closed, WTI was bid and rallied back up near $100…

Gold was clubbed like a baby seal, once again testing $1900 (and once again rebounding higher back above it)…

Finally, are we replaying 2008? Bounce into the May FOMC?

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1518586546366173184&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fus-big-tech-shrugs-beijing-bloodbath-bond-yields-bullion-black-gold-battered&sessionId=4c3c05860e344ddd389bfaeea31956f071b1d4ec&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=c8fe9736dd6fb%3A1649830956492&width=550px

Deja vu all over again?

END

END

I) /MORNING TRADING/LAST NIGHT/CHINA

Chinese Stocks, Yuan, Commodities Crash As Covid Plunges Country Into “Darkest Moment In Decades”

MONDAY, APR 25, 2022 – 04:04 AM

Last week’s violent stock selloff has resumed as a new week begins, with Asian and European markets tumbling, and US futures trading at session lows, but nowhere is the panic selling worse than in China, where the stocks, commodities and the yuan all tumbled. The CSI 300 equity benchmark slumped 4.9%, its biggest drop since Feb 2020, to the lowest level since May 2020 and wiping out gains from a March pledge by officials to support the economy as fears that the Covid breakout in Shanghai is spreading to Beijing, sparking new concerns about China’ economic and earnings growth outlook. The Shanghai closed more than 5.1% lower, and the  CSI 300 Index is set for for its sixth session of declines in seven, on track to extend this year’s drop to 22%. Some indexes carrying Chinese stocks are ranking among the world’s worst-performing equity gauges for 2022. 

It was just as ugly across all regional markets:

  • *CHINA’S SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX CLOSES DOWN 5.132% TO 2928.51
  • *CHINA’S CHINEXT INDEX FALLS 5% TO 2,181.44
  • *CHINA’S CSI 300 INDEX FALLS 4.9%, MOST SINCE FEBURARY 2020
  • *HONG KONG’S HANG SENG INDEX FALLS 4% TO 19,809.83
  • *HANG SENG TECH INDEX FALLS 5% TO 3,800.80

It wasn’t just stocks: extending on last week’s plunge, the yuan fell to its weakest in a year on concerns about rising capital outflows and oil sank below $100 on worries over Chinese demand.

Besides a mass liquidation of risk assets, fears of a new covid breakout in the country’ capital sparked a bout of panic buying of goods as Beijing residents — fearful of being caught unprepared in the event of a citywide shutdown– rushed to stockpile supplies after the government announced mass testing plans and put some areas under lockdown.

As noted earlier, the city of more than 20 million people and the country’s political center has sealed off dozens of residential compounds and told inhabitants of the eastern district of Chaoyang to be tested three times this week after dozens of infections were found over the weekend. Officials have warned of more cases in coming days, with Beijing city government spokesman Xu Hejian saying late on Friday that the current outbreak is “complex and stealthy” while vowing to take further measures to prevent its spread.

Meanwhile, a Covid flareup that shut down much of Shanghai appeared to worsen over the weekend with Bloomberg reporting that the financial capital reported a record 51 Covid fatalities for Sunday, bringing the total number of Covid deaths to 138 during the current outbreak, according to the city’s health commission. Shanghai also reported 19,455 local Covid-19 cases.

The twin outbreaks in two of China’s most significant cities has become an unprecedented test for President Xi Jinping, who is likely to seek a third five-year term during a Communist Party congress later this year.

“There are concerns about the Covid situation in Beijing evolving into what happened in Shanghai with some prolonged lockdowns that bites the economy,” said Kevin Li, portfolio manager at GF Asset Management (Hong Kong) Ltd.

China has repeatedly defended its Covid Zero policy, saying the policy saves lives and keeps the economy going, even as the strategy is doing just the opposite, increasingly darkens the country’s growth outlook and threatens to disrupt global supply chains. Some have even speculated that China’ surge in civid cases is intentional and meant to purposefully destabilize US supply chains in retaliation for US sanctions against Beijing’ close ally. Moscow.

The news of the fresh covid scare in China spread around global markets with stocks and equity futures under pressure and havens like the dollar and Treasuries gaining. Traders balked at the potential impact of coronavirus restrictions on growth in the world’s second-largest economy, which was already showing signs of slowing down thanks to a property crisis and increased regulation. The growth fears come amid China’s widening policy divergence with the U.S., which has led to foreign outflows and weighed on the yuan. Investor nerves were already frayed after last week’ market plunge sparked by fears of a more aggressive tightening from the Fed and European Central Bank late last week.

The Covid situation is putting the country into “the darkest moment in economic terms for the last couple of decades,” said Junheng Li, JL Warren Capital founder and CEO, told Bloomberg TV in an interview adding that it’s a “confidence crisis” given Shanghai, the most affluent city in China, has a “consensus disappointment and resentfulness” toward the Covid policy.

“People really don’t know what’s a clear path to get China out of this Covid situation” and it’s “unlikely that China will be opened up in a sustainable way” in the foreseeable future, Li said warning that coupled with the war in Ukraine and the Federal Reserve raising rates, Chinese stocks will see a couple of “potentially very volatile months” ahead. “It’s very hard to make long calls with a situation where the future is so uncertain”

The renewed selling also comes as investors have grown weary about a lack of follow-through on policy promises last month to shore up growth and stabilize markets. Markets shrugged off Friday’s latest policy vow from the People’s Bank of China to ensure stability, which repeated commentary seen in the past month.

Meanwhile, analysts have started downgrading economic growth forecasts for this year below the government’s 5.5% target given the extent of the lockdowns, after a number of manufacturers and car makers highlighted supply chain disruptions.

The selling led to a fresh tumble in local bonds – in the corporate debt market, Chinese dollar junk bonds fell as much as 2 cents on the dollar Monday, led by developers.

The selling frenzy also swept through commodities markets, with the nation heading for the largest oil demand shock since the early days of the pandemic. Meanwhile, iron ore tumbled almost 12% in Singapore before paring around half of the drop.

“The sharp price fall is mainly due to the burgeoning Covid impact,” said Chen Wen Guang, research director at Lange Steel Information Research Center, an industry group in Beijing. With “lots of areas affected, people are beginning to worry about demand.”

Here’s what some other strategists and fund managers are saying:

GF Asset Management (Kevin Li)

  • “There are concerns about the Covid situation in Beijing evolving into what happened in Shanghai with some prolonged lockdowns that bites the economy”
  • “On the other hand, the unchanged one-year and five-year LPR rates have also hurt sentiment”

Bank of Singapore (Eli Lee)

  • “The latest disappointing set of stimulus measures from China have led us to downgrade our 2022 GDP growth forecast from 5.5% to 4.8%”
  • “As the PBOC grows wary of the inflation and currency risks related to the divergence in monetary policy versus the Fed, Chinese policy makers will find it difficult to achieve their trinity of goals: 5.5% GDP growth in 2022, zero Covid cases and limiting the leverage in the economy”
  • “While this weakens the thesis for our overweight position in Chinese equities at the margin, we see our long-term thesis to be broadly intact given overly depressed valuations and a still constructive long term outlook”

Straits Investment Management (Manish Bhargava)

  • “Fears of an extended lockdown in Shanghai (and possibly other major cities) could dent the country’s economic prospects”
  • “While it is hard to tell how bad the selling could get, today’s market reactions suggest that Covid fears have not been fully priced in”

IG Asia (Jun Rong Yeap)

  • The intensifying virus risks suggest “economic conditions will continue to remain impaired with its zero-Covid stance. Overall, the sell-off may have been further exacerbated by the dent in global risk sentiments, with the lack of positive catalyst for market participants to take on added risks for now”

Bloomberg Intelligence (Marvin Chen)

  • Today’s fall has come on back of “continued lockdowns and lack of easing, and this following on the global selloff on Friday as well with S&P 500 down almost 3%”
  • “China may need to renew policy vows made in March to stimulate withering markets, but this time such pledges might not be as effective with the Fed expected to deliver a super-sized rate hike in early May”

AFTERNOON

END

II)USA data

-END-

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iiia) USA inflation//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

IIIB) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

END

iv)swamp stories

This is what we have saying for the past two years!

 

Former DNI John Ratcliffe: Trump-Russia Collusion Hoax a “Conspiracy” – Entire Perkins Coie Law Firm “Could Be Subject to Indictment” (VIDEO)

Inbox

Robert Hryniak4:20 PM (58 minutes ago)
to



I’ll bet the Perkins partners at the Seattle  home office, writing wills and contracts, are peeing their pants.

Former DNI John Ratcliffe: Trump-Russia Collusion Hoax a “Conspiracy” – Entire Perkins Coie Law Firm “Could Be Subject to Indictment” (VIDEO)

Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe joined Maria Bartiromo on Sunday Morning Futures this morning.

The former DNI, who has been outspoken in his quest to report the truth on the Trump-Russia collusion hoax gave an update on the John Durham investigation into the lies and set-up of Donald Trump during the 2016 election and then for several years into his administration. According to John Ratcliffe we are now looking at a conspiracy. And the former DNI said hiding Hunter’s laptop story was a coordinated attempt to mislead the American people.

John Ratcliffe: This was a coordinated effort to mislead the American people… Adam Schiff claiming that this was Russian disinformation and then having it peddled by Big Tech and former national security officials who all signed on in the weeks leading up to 2020, influenced the outcome of the election and I think they were successful in doing so.

John Ratliffe then added that the entire Law Firm Perkins Coie could be subject to indictment.

TRENDING: HISTORIC HUMILIATION: Trump-Endorsed Candidates Sweep Establishment GOP Picks as Michigan Grassroots Rise Up… Win Against All Odds

John Ratcliffe: This was a coordinated effort by Hillary Clinton Campaign officials, by executives who were working with them, lawyers who work for the campaign, all attempting to defraud the federal government… Defrauding the government is a felony, making false statements to federal investigators is a felony. And when multiple people do it together I think that is a conspiracy and I think that’s what is being revealed in John Durham’s filings… If multiple lawyers from a law firm are attempting to defraud the government or lie to the government, not just commit a campaign dirty trick but to peddle a false narrative to mislead investigators an entire law firm like Perkins Coie could be subject to indictment.

Via Sunday Morning Futures.

end

John Durham Issues Trial Subpoenas To Members Of Clinton Campaign, DNC

MONDAY, APR 25, 2022 – 04:20 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Special counsel John Durham has issued trial subpoenas for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, the Democratic National Committee (DNC), Fusion GPS, and Perkins Coie as he continues to prosecute his findings as special counsel, from which he charged cybersecurity lawyer Michael Sussmann, who in 2016 represented the Clinton campaign, with lying to the FBI.

Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, the DNC, Washington-based private intelligence firm Fusion GPS, and law firm Perkins Coie, Sussmann’s former employer, meanwhile, are trying to fend off Durham’s efforts to compel them to hand over previously withheld documents.

The campaign and Sussmann’s lawyers argue that attorney-client privilege should allow them to keep the records concealed.

Durham, who was tasked around March-May 2019 with reviewing the origins of the 2016-2017 FBI investigation of the now disproven Trump–Russia collusion narrative, says his investigation has led him to believe that the Clinton-allied groups played a coordinating role in pushing the false claims.

In May 2017, special counsel and former FBI head Robert Mueller ultimately found no Trump-Russia collusion to sway the 2016 election.

Earlier this month, Durham said that Fusion GPS “was not primarily providing or supporting expertise relating to legal advice; instead, it appears that the investigative firm’s primary, if not sole, function was to generate opposition research materials that the firm then shared widely.”

On April 23, Durham said of the groups, “meeting to agree on the express goal of a joint venture is precisely what happened here, on more than one occasion.”

The special counsel said that “Tech Executive-1” Rodney Joffe, “Originator-1” April Lorenzen of the information services firm Zetalytics, and other researchers started to discuss “searching for and collecting derogatory internet data about the online activities of Donald Trump and his associates” in June 2016.

Lorenzen “assembled and shared initial purported data” with Joffe, “who, in turn, shared the data” with Sussmann, Durham added.

The joint venture continued and crystallized early in August 2016,” when Sussmann, Joffe, and “agents of the Clinton Campaign” met, Durham said, while citing an Aug. 12, 2016, meeting where Sussmann, Joffe, Marc Elias (former Perkins Coie partner), and the co-founder of Fusion gathered in Elias’s office to discuss “the same Russian Bank-1 allegations that the defendant would later bring to the FBI.”

The parties agreed to conduct work in the hope that it would benefit the Clinton Campaign, namely, gathering and disseminating purportedly derogatory data regarding Trump and his associates’ internet activities,” Durham wrote.

“The evidence will show that as a result of these conversations and during this same time period, Tech Executive-1 did exactly that: he tasked employees from multiple Internet companies and a university working under a pending national security contract to mine and gather vast amounts of internet metadata in order to support an ‘inference’ and ‘narrative’ tying the candidate [Trump] to Russia.”

Durham went on to add that Joffe continued the “joint venture” via an Aug. 17, 2016, call with Sussmann and Elias, an Aug. 19, 2016, meeting with Sussmann and Elias, and a Sept. 8, 2016, call and meeting with Sussmann.

All of these, Durham said, citing calendars he has viewed, were billed to the Clinton Campaign by the defendant.

Durham further stated that Joffe also requested the CEO of an internet company to mine and analyze huge amounts of internet traffic for derogatory information regarding Trump and his associate’s online communications and internet connections.

Joffe also sent the CEO of the internet company a list containing private information, such as email addresses, IP addresses, and physical addresses of multiple Trump associates, many of whom were being researched by Fusion, Durham said.

Joffe had made clear his desire to ensure that Perkins and the Clinton campaign would be “happy” with the information he had discovered, Durham added.

Sussman was indicted in September 2021 for lying to the FBI when he claimed he had information about an alleged secret communication channel between Trump and a Russian bank; claims which ultimately proved to be false.

Sussman allegedly told then-FBI General Counsel James Baker in October 2016, while making the claims of alleged communications, that he was not representing any client, while he, in fact, was billing the time to the Clinton campaign.

Following the subpoenas, lawyers for Sussman moved to prevent materials being admitted in the case with their argument that they are protected by attorney-client privilege. They’ve called Durham’s subpoenas “astonishing and legally inappropriate.”

“The Special Counsel continues to overreach: he seeks to admit evidence that the law squarely forbids, he seeks to prove unduly prejudicial allegations he has not charged, and he seeks to prove conduct that is utterly irrelevant to the one discrete crime he has charged,” the lawyers said.

Durham disputes that.

He maintains that “the goal of the joint venture could not have been more clear: it was to gather and disseminate derogatory non-public information regarding the internet activities of a political candidate and his associates,” he wrote in a April 23 court filing.

The King Report (including swamp stories)



 

Let us close today with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter interviewing Clif High

World Economic Forum a Failing Criminal Organization – Clif High

By Greg Hunter On April 23, 2022 In Political Analysis124 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Clif High is an Internet data mining expert who uses “Predictive Linguistics” on the Internet to forecast future trends and events.  High has made freakishly accurate predictions such as saying, two months ahead of time, that Hillary Clinton would “go missing” on Election night in November of 2016.  She did.  High also said when Bitcoin was around $1 that it was going way up in the future.  Right again.  What is High predicting now for the New World Order globalists from the World Economic Forum (WEF) causing havoc around the world for their new so-called “reset”?  Everything the WEF is doing has a narrative that must be adhered to.  Let’s start with the CV19 injections and all the high-profile politicians and celebrities who are double vaxed, boosted and yet they still got covid.  The latest is talk show host Stephen Colbert who says he’s “grateful” he was vaxed even though he still got Covid.  What gives?  High says, “These people are under a script.  They have to always find and support this particular narrative because of their position.  In the next tier down, you will actually find people deluded who actually believe the things they are saying.  I do not believe these people are grateful they are double vaccinated.  I believe many of them are not vaccinated.  They are simply saying that to promote this narrative.  Look at how intense the ‘we must vaccinate everybody’ narrative is here in the United States and elsewhere even though that has basically failed.  They are failing to recognize their plot has crashed.  They don’t have anything else to pick up with.  They are also trying to get us in the nuclear war theme around Ukraine, and that is failing too.  All of these efforts of theirs are falling flat because of this percentage of the population that is now awake. . . .”

Clif High thinks the vaxed and boosted are going to have a big effect on the economy, but it’s not what you think.  Take Millennials, for example, as High explains, “We can expect right now a two times impact on the Millennial generation equivalent to Vietnam.  So, the Vietnam War killed 50,000 plus young males in our social order in the baby boom generation.  We can figure that at least twice that will be killed (from the vax) in the Millennial generation, and twice the number of damages will persist in that generation.  So, this is a deflationary event.  If we have a damaged individual, even if they don’t die, they are going to be deflationary . . . the life expectancy will be much shorter.  The demands they make on life in terms of travel, etc., etc., etc., and that’s to the aims of the World Economic Forum, which is this criminal organization that was created by Klaus Schwab. and it has taken on the auspices of a government agency, but it is not.  It is simply a criminal organization for its own aims pretending to be a government organization. . . . Their goal was to have a deflationary event because they could not allow us to arrive at this situation without the war and without a ‘Great Reset’ because we can’t afford to pay the entitlement levels for Social Security, and we are at maximum level of debt. . . .”

Clif High also talks about the 2022 election, hyperinflation, the death of the dollar, a new currency, huge cancer increases caused by the CV19 vax, Russia’s plan in Ukraine, gold, silver, Bitcoin,  big financial events coming in May, a breakdown in the economy, secret societies, decentralization of everything, mainstream media die-off, new digital truth warriors defeating censorship, death of the Democrat party and justice coming to Big Pharma, Big Tech, Big Media and  corrupt government officials in both parties.  There is a lot more in this 1 hour and 18 minute in-depth interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with data mining expert Clif High. (4.23.22)

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

Clif High says he no longer sells his Internet data mining reports, but he does commentary about his data mining research and gives free analysis on his Bitchute channel.

See you on TUESDAY 

28 comments

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