BLOODBATH II

May 12, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1825.75 DOWN $26.50

SILVER: $20.68 DOWN  $.88

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1822.00

SILVER: $20.70

Bitcoin morning price:  $28,800 DOWN 876

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $28,681 DOWN 1077

Platinum price: closing DOWN $52.00 to $947.70

Palladium price; closing DOWN $119.45  at $1910.45

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX

comex notices percentage of JPMorgan notices filed:  1094/1197 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,852.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/11/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 05/13/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


323 H HSBC 317
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 17
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 93
661 C JP MORGAN 4 1094
709 C BARCLAYS 4
880 H CITIGROUP 829
905 C ADM 24


TOTAL: 1,191 1,191
MONTH TO DATE: 5,276



NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAY CONTRACT 1191  NOTICE(S) FOR 119,100 OZ  (3.705  TONNES)

total notices so far:  5276 contracts for 527,600. oz (16.4105 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

86 NOTICE(S) FILED 430,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  4823  :  for 24,115,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.99 TONNES FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.62 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS

AT THE SLV// A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.487 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 570.439 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED  1006 CONTRACTS TO 141,746   AND FURTHER FROM  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND  THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.08 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.08) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS  AS  WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 760 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 30.170 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 50,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //NEW STANDING 27.920 MILLION OZ/ //  V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : 141

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  MAY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 8 days, total 12,329,  contracts:  61.645 million oz  OR 7.705 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1541CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 61.645 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 61.645 MILLION OZ//INCREASING AGAIN

RESULT: WE HAD A VERY STRONG  SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1006 DESPITE OUR   $0.08 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1625 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAY. OF 30.170 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 50,000  OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 27.920 MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 619 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 3095 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 86  NOTICE FILED TODAY FOR  430,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3216 CONTRACTS  TO 574,663 AND CLOSER TO NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  –1429 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE  GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.85//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY /.AS IN SILVER WE MUST  HAD  HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAY AT 5.353 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY”S QUEUE JUMP OF 85,800 OZ//NEW STANDING 16.569 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF   $9.80 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 11,598  OI CONTRACTS (36.07 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED  8382 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 576,092.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A  STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,027, WITH 3216 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8970 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,598 CONTRACTS OR 36.07 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (8382) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (3216,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES  11,598 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAY. AT 5.353 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 85,800 OZ//NEW STANDING 16.569 ///  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //.,4) GOOD SIZED COMEX  OI. GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MAY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :

38,287 CONTRACTS OR 3,828,700 OR 119.08  TONNES 8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4785 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 119.08 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  119.08/3550 x 100% TONNES  3.33% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  119.08 TONNES INITIAL// INCREASING AGAIN

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1006 CONTRACT OI TO 141,746 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1625 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 1936  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI loss OF 1006 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1936 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 619 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3.095 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.08 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY  NIGHT

)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED down 3.71 PTS OR 0.12%   //Hang Sang CLOSED down 444.23 PTS OR 2.24%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 464.92 OR 0.18%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.89%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6,7914    /Oil UP TO 104.54 dollars per barrel for WTI and down TO 106.17 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7914 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8189: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER/

a)NORTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3216 CONTRACTS TO 574,663 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR  GAIN OF $9.85 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (8382 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 8382 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 JUNE :8382 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8382 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED  TOTAL OF 11,598 CONTRACTS IN THAT 8382 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD AN GOOD SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 3216  CONTRACTS..AND YET  THIS GAIN OCCURRED WITH  OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $9.85

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY   (15.569),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 16.569 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $9.85) AND  WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS// AS WE HAVE  REGISTERED A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN  OF 36.07 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY (16.569 TONNES)

WE HAD 1429 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1159,800 CONTRACTS OR 1302,700  OZ OR 36.07

 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 306,808/// good

Confirmed volume yesterday:309,189 contracts  good

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAY ’22 COMEX GOLD //MAY 12

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz32,279,608 oz
BRINKS
BRINKS ENHANCED
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today1191  notice(s)119,100 OZ
3.705 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)51 contracts 5100 oz
0.1586 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month5276 notices
527,600 OZ
16.4105 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

For today:

dealer deposits  0

total dealer deposit  nil   oz//

No dealer withdrawals

0 customer deposits

2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks:  32,279.604 oz

ii) Out of Brinks enhanced 4067.500 oz

total withdrawal: 36,343.104– oz

ADJUSTMENTS:   1  HSBC//dealer to customer 5497.821 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.

For the front month of MAY we have an  oi of 1242 contracts having LOST 1315 contracts

We had 2173 notices filed on Tuesday, so we gained 858 contracts or  AN ADDITIONAL 85,800 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of May.

June saw a loss of 19,938 contracts down to 303,252  contracts 

July has a gain of 24 OI to stand at 178

August has a gain of 23,837 contracts up to 213,007 contracts

We had 1191 notice(s) filed today for  119100 oz FOR THE MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1191 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  1094 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5276) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAY 1242  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  1191 x 100 oz per contract equals 532,700 OZ  OR 16.569 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non  active month of MAY. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (5276) x 100 oz+   (1242)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1191} x 100 oz} which equals 532,700 oz standing OR 16.569 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of MAY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  16.569 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A MAY ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,026,795.134 oz                             

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  35,989.411.684 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 18,189,609.255  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,799.802.429 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,77300.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

MAY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//MAY 12

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory176,760.860  oz
HSBC
JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
Deposits to the Customer Inventory1,266.774.426 OZ
CNT
Delaware
HSBC
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)86CONTRACT(S
(430,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)761 contracts (3,805,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)4823 contracts 24,115,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposit into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil     oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 3 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT:  593,084.606 oz

ii) Into Delaware; 90,432.110

total deposit:  1,266,774.422    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 177.025 million oz/338.066 million =52.36% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 2

i) Out of JPMorgan  175,760.900 oz

ii) Out of HSBC 999.92 oz

total withdrawal 176m760.800    oz

0 adjustments: 

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 80.759 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 338.006 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MAY OI: 847 HAVING LOST 865 CONTRACTS.  WE HAD 875 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY

SO WE GAINED 10  CONTRACTS OR AN QUEUE JUMP OF 50,000

JUNE HAD A GAIN OF 35 TO STAND AT 1531

JULY HAD A LOSS OF 1610 CONTRACTS UP TO 113,943 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 86 for 430,000 oz

Comex volumes: 81.880// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 88,622 contracts (  good )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4823 x 5,000 oz = 24,115,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY(847) and the number of notices served upon today 86  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAY./2021 contract month: 4823 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY (847)  – number of notices served upon today (86) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month equates 27,920,000 oz. .

We GAINED 10 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 50,000 will  stand for delivery at the comex

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.99 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.62 TONNES

MAY 11/WITH GOLD UP $9.85//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 7.25 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.65 TONNES

MAY 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.90 TONNES

MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.98 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.00 TONNES

MAY 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.95: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1084.98 TONNES

MAY 5/WITH GOLD UP $6.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 4//WITH GOLD UP 70 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.19 \TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.04 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $6.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1092.23

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $46.20: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1094.55 TONNES

APRIL 29/WITH GOLD UP $20.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095,72 TONNES

APRIL 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.35: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.77 TONNES FROM THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1095.72 TONNES

APRIL 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.30//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.49 TONNES

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD UP $7.60//HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1101.23 TONNES

APRIL 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES 

APRIL 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.13 TONNES

APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT IF 6.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1106.74 TONNES

APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $26.90//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1100.36 TONNES

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $11.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.93 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1099.44 TONNES

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A  DEPOSIT OF 11.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.42 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $26.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 //A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1090.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP $7.70: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1088.75 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.98 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1066.62 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

May 11/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.487 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ//

MAY 10.//WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ

MAY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .93 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.977 MILLION OZ//

MAY 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .851 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 576.900 MILLION OZ

MAY 3/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF.877 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.

MAY 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 47 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 554,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.171 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 29//WITH SILVER DOWN 12  CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.308 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.725 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.385 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 578.033 MILLION OZ

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ

APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.031 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 579.418 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS : STRANGE!! A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING DEPOSIT OF 3.508 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 581.449 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 21/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.955 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 577.941 MILLION OZ///

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .461 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY…//INVENTORY RESTS AT 574.986 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 575.447 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS : A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.676 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 831,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER  UP 11 CENTS :NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.386 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESETS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

INVENTORY TONIGHT RESTS AT 570.439 MILLION OZ/

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2.LAWRIE WILLIAMS//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARDS/

-END-

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Trump-backed Mooney wins Republican House primary in West Virginia

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-05-10 22:17Section: Daily Dispatches

U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-West Virginia, repeatedly has pressed the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and Commodity Futures Trading Commission with inconvenient questions about gold market manipulation.

* * *

By Paul Steinhauser
Fox News, New York
Tuesday May 10, 2022

Rep. Alex Mooney is projected by the Associated Press as the winner in the Republican congressional primary in West Virginia’s 2nd District in a battle with fellow Republican Rep. David McKinley.

And while former President Donald Trump wasn’t on the ballot, his prestige within the party was very much on the line in a bitter contest between two incumbent lawmakers, as Trump had endorsed Mooney.

“I Love West Virginia. Congratulations to Alex Mooney on his big win!,” Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social.

West Virginia lost a congressional seat during the once-in-a-decade congressional reapportionment, and Mooney and McKinley were drawn into the state’s newly refigured 2nd District.

West Virginia lost a congressional seat during the once-in-a-decade congressional reapportionment.

The race partially turned into a test of the former president’s status as the most popular and influential politician in the Republican Party, nearly 16 months removed from the White House.

At his victory celebration, Mooney told supporters “the voters of West Virginia spoke loud and clear tonight.”

And the congressman thanked Trump for “his endorsement and support of my campaign,” adding, “When Donald Trump puts his mind to something, you better watch out.”

Mooney touted on the campaign trail and in ads that he’s the “only candidate Trump trusts to defend our values” and criticized McKinley as a “RINO” and a “sellout.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/west-virginia-trump-mooney-primary-mckinley

end

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Upward reversals for gold and silver coming soon

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-05-10 21:50Section: Daily Dispatches

9:45p ET Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke, writing today at Sprott Money, shrugs off the recent plunges in gold and silver futures and contends that upward reversals will happen soon as the Federal Reserve eases off its increases in interest rates to halt a stock market crash.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Reality Bites: An Update” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Reality-Bites-An-Update-Craig-Hemke-May-10-2022

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org


END

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //DIESEL

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL//DIESEL/OIL/INVENTORIES

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7914

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8189

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 444,23 PTS OR 2.24% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 464.92 OR .1.97%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  104.56/Euro FALLS TO 1.0416

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +.24/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 129.95/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -SHORE CLOSED  UP//  OFF- SHORE  DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +0.859%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 2.75% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.90%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.35

3j Gold at $1842.70 silver at: 20.91  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP  1.9      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 65.29

3m oil into the 103 dollar handle for WTI and  106 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 128.53 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9969– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0454well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.939 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.990 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 15.39

Slow-Motion Crash Drags Futures Below 3,900; Yields, Cryptos Tumble

THURSDAY, MAY 12, 2022 – 07:57 AM

The relentless slow-motion crash sparked by the Biden Fed (which is hoping that a market collapse will halt inflation) that has sent stocks lower for the past 6 weeks continued overnight, and Wall Street’s main equity indexes were set for more declines after losing $6.3 trillion in value since their late-March high as stubborn inflation in the world’s biggest economy bolstered the case for more aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.7% at 730am in New York, a day after the underlying gauge sank to its lowest since November 2020 on concerns that higher-than-expected inflation in April would lead to an even more aggressive pace of policy tightening by the Fed. S&P 500 were last down -1% and dropping below 3,900, the level. And with eminis trading around 3,900 means that stocks are now at bearish Morgan Stanley’s year-end base case price target of 3900, and 100 points away from Michael Hartnett’s Fed put of 3,800.

The dollar continues its relentless ascent, sending the euro to a five-year low while the yen also perked up, as investors took a cue from a rally in bonds and ploughed into “safe-haven” currencies on concerns about inflation risks to global economic growth. Meanwhile, bonds around the globe are surging as fears mount over an economic slowdown and traders start pricing in the next recession, sending the yield on 10-year German bunds and US Treasuries down more than 10 basis points to about 2.82%.

Among notable premarket moves, Disney shares dropped after the media giant said growth in the second half of the year may not be as fast as previously expected, while Beyond Meat slumped 24% as Barclays downgraded the stock and analysts slashed their price targets following underwhelming results. Bank stocks slump in premarket trading Thursday, set for a sixth straight day of losses. In corporate news, Carlyle Group is set to buy Chinese packaging firm HCP for about $1 billion. Meanwhile, Brookfield Asset Management said it plans to list 25% of its asset-management business in a transaction that would value the new entity at $80 billion. Economic data due late today include initial jobless claims. Here are all the notable premarket movers:

  • Disney (DIS US) shares drop 4.8% in premarket trading after the media giant said growth in the second half of the year may not be as fast as previously expected.
  • Apple (AAPL US) shares fall as much as 1.4% in premarket trading Thursday, putting them on course to open more than 20% below their January peak.
  • Beyond Meat (BYND US) shares slump 24% in US premarket trading as analysts slashed their targets on the plant-based food company following underwhelming results.
  • Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) -6.1% in premarket trading, Marathon Digital (MARA US) -5.8%, MicroStrategy (MSTR US)-10% and Coinbase (COIN US) -7.3%
  • Zoom (ZM US) shares decline as much as 4.5% in US premarket as Piper Sandler analyst James Fish cut the recommendation on the stock to neutral as he sees limited upside to paid video service.
  • Dutch Bros (BROS US) slumps 42% in premarket trading after the drive-thru coffee chain’s guidance lagged analyst estimates, though some analysts see the dip in shares as a buying opportunity.
  • Lordstown Motors (RIDE US) shares jump as much as 27% in U.S. premarket trading after the electric truck maker completed the sale of its factory to Foxconn.
  • Rivian (RIVN US) gains 2.9% in premarket trading after the electric vehicle startup reaffirmed its annual production guidance, even as it navigates through supply chain snarls.
  • Coupang (CPNG US) shares jump as much as 18% in US premarket trading after the Korean e- commerce firm reported a first-quarter loss per share that was narrower than analysts’ expectations.
  • Bumble (BMBL US) shares rise 8.3% in premarket after the company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations, despite currency risks and those related to the war in Ukraine.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks also fell as digital tokens resumed declines after the collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin, overnight the largest stablecoin, Tether, broke the buck spooking markets further that the contagion is spreading.

The hotter-than-expected inflation reading for April raised concern the Fed’s hikes aren’t bringing down prices fast enough and policy makers may have to resort to a 75bps move, rather than the half-point pace markets have come to grips with. Worries such a shift would crimp economic growth, combined with Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s struggles with Covid, are battering risk assets.

The data halted a minor rebound in US equities, which are set for their longest weekly streak of losses since 2011, as investors worried that hawkish moves by central banks at a time of surging commodity prices and slowing earnings growth would spark a recession. While some strategists have said the rout has now made stock valuations attractive, others including Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley warned of a bigger selloff.

“What these wild market moves are telling us is that investors have very little idea of whether we’re near a short-term base, or whether we’ve got further to fall,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

The higher-than-expected CPI figure may further fuel fears that the Fed will take policy higher than expected for longer than expected, draining precious liquidity from markets, which have until late been awash with it,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.  “Until we get a meaningful move lower in inflation, not only one print, but a consistent two, three, four prints moving in the right direction, this market may remain range bound,” Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones & Co., said on Bloomberg Television.

Citigroup Inc. strategists said growth stocks, including the battered tech sector, will likely remain under pressure as central banks tighten monetary policy, driving yields higher.  “Now that central banks are unwinding monetary support, growth stocks’ valuations have further to fall,” strategists including Robert Buckland wrote in a note. They are especially wary of growth stocks in the US, where the Nasdaq 100 is down 27% this year.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was down 2.2% with mining and consumer-products stocks leading declines. The Euro Stoxx 50 drops as much as 2.8%, Haven currencies perform well. The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources sub-index erased all YTD gains as a slide in metal prices and concerns about inflation fueled a selloff in the sector. Miners are the biggest laggard in the broader European equity benchmark on Thursday as major miners and steelmakers slip along with copper and iron ore prices. The basic resources sector (the sector is still second-best performing in Europe this year so far) fell as much as 5.6%, briefly erasing all YTD losses, and down to the lowest since January 3. Morgan Stanley strategists had downgraded miners to neutral on Wednesday, saying it’s time to take profits in the sector amid concerns inflation will lead to demand destruction. Here are the biggest movers:

  • Telefonica shares rise as much as 4.5% after the Spanish carrier reported what analysts said was a solid set of quarterly earnings.
  • STMicroelectronics gains as much as 4.1% as the chipmaker projects annual revenue of more than $20 billion for 2025-2027 period.
  • Compass Group climbs as much as 2.5%, adding to Wednesday’s 7.4% advance, with Morgan Stanley lifting its price target to a Street-high.
  • JD Sports rises as much as 3% after the UK sportswear chain said like-for-like sales for the 14-week period to May 7 were more than 5% higher than a year earlier.
  • AS Roma advances as much as 15% after US billionaire Dan Friedkin made a tender offer for the roughly 13% of the Italian football team he doesn’t already own.
  • The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources sub- index erases all YTD gains as a slide in metal prices and concerns about inflation fuel a selloff.
  • Rio Tinto declines as much as 6%, Glencore -7.3%, Anglo American -6.9%, ArcelorMittal -4.8%, Antofagasta -7.9%
  • Luxury stocks resume their declines after high US inflation bolstered the case for aggressive monetary tightening, deepening fears of an economic slowdown.
  • Kering slides as much as 5.6%, Hermes -5.5% and Swatch -3.7%
  • SalMar falls as much as 8.2% after the Norwegian salmon farmer published its latest quarterly earnings, which included a miss on operating Ebit.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks resumed their slide after Wednesday’s modest gains, as US inflation topped estimates and new Covid-19 community cases in Shanghai damped prospects for a reopening.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 2%, with tech giants Alibaba and TSMC weighing the most on the gauge. Chinese shares snapped a two-day advance after Shanghai found two infections outside of isolation centers, pushing back the timeline for a relaxation of growth-sapping lockdowns.  US inflation remained above 8% in April, keeping the Federal Reserve on the path of aggressive tightening. That prospect weighed on shares in Asia, as investors also factored in growth implications from continued lockdowns in the world’s second-largest economy. Markets appeared to be unimpressed by China’s Premier Li Keqiang’s comments urging officials to use fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize employment and the economy. Valuations for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index are hurtling toward pandemic lows as the index records a 29% decline from its 2021 peak, posting declines in all but one of the trading sessions so far this month.

“We’ve seen nearly the same amount of foreign investor selling in Asia as we saw during the global financial crisis, even though operating conditions aren’t as bad,” Timothy Moe, chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg Television. “On our expected conditions over the next year, somewhere around 13 times should be a fair and appropriate valuation for Asian markets,” he added. Benchmarks in Indonesia and Taiwan were among the biggest decliners in the region, with the Jakarta Composite Index on the cusp of erasing gains for the year. Hong Kong shares also fell as the city intervened to defend its currency for the first time since 2019

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose to a fresh two-year high as the greenback climbed versus all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. The demand for havens sent the yield on 10-year German bunds and US Treasuries down more than 10 basis points. Stops were triggered in the euro below $1.0490 and 1.0450, weighed by EUR/CHF selling and yen buying across the board, according to traders. The yen rose by as much as 1.2% against the greenback as selling in stocks hurt risk sentiment. The BOJ indicated its lack of appetite for changing policy to help address a slide in the yen to a two-decade low during discussions at a meeting last month, according to a summary of opinions from the gathering. The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell on concern that lockdowns in China’s financial capital will extend, dragging economic growth in the world’s biggest buyer of commodities.

In rates, Treasuries extended Wednesday’s rally with yields richer by 6bp to 9bp across the curve, supported by risk-aversion as stocks extend losses. US 10-year yields around 2.82%, down 10bps on the session, and trailing gilts and bunds by 2.2bp and 3bp in the sector; intermediates lead the US curve, richening the 2s5s30s fly by 4bp on the day to tightest levels since March 23. Eurodollars are bid as well with the strip flattening out to early 2024 as rate-hike premium continues to erode. European fixed income extends gains. German and US curves bull-steepen; bunds outperform, richening ~12bps across the belly. Gilts bull-flatten, focusing on soft March GDP data over hawkish comments from BOE’s Ramsden.  STIRs are similarly well bid with red pack euribor, eurodollar and sonia futures all up over 10 ticks. The US auction cycle concludes with $22b 30-year bond sale at 1pm ET; Wednesday’s 10-year is trading more than 10bp lower in yield after 1.4bp auction tail. WI 30-year around 2.965% is above auction stops since March 2019 and ~15bp cheaper than April stop-out. Super-long sectors led gains in Japanese bonds even as the 30-year sale was seen sluggish.

In commodities, base metals were under pressure; LME tin slumps over 8%, zinc down over 3.5%. European natural gas surged as much as 13% on supply concerns. Crude futures drop, fading roughly half of Wednesday’s rally. WTI is down over 2% near $103.50. Spot gold trades a narrow range near $1,850/oz. European natural gas prices jumped as disruptions to a key transit route through Ukraine and a move by Moscow to retaliate against sanctions ramped up the risk of supply cuts. Shanghai found two Covid cases outside government-run isolation centers on Wednesday, according to state-run CCTV, dampening prospects for potential easing of lockdowns. Prices of iron ore, the biggest commodity export from Australia, also fell on the news.

Looking at the day, data releases include the US PPI reading for April, the weekly initial jobless claims, and UK GDP for Q1. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s De Cos and Makhlouf. And in the political sphere, US President Biden will be hosting ASEAN leaders at the White House, whilst G7 foreign ministers are meeting in Germany.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 3,907.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 1.9% to 419.41
  • MXAP down 1.7% to 157.21
  • MXAPJ down 2.5% to 512.05
  • Nikkei down 1.8% to 25,748.72
  • Topix down 1.2% to 1,829.18
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 19,380.34
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,054.99
  • Sensex down 2.1% to 52,935.64
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 6,941.03
  • Kospi down 1.6% to 2,550.08
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,849.85
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.48% to 104.34
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.89%
  • Euro down 0.6% to $1.0449
  • Brent Futures down 2.0% to $105.32/bbl

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The EU is looking at creating bond futures and repurchase agreements to bolster its pandemic-era debt program
  • The BOE will have to raise interest rates further to control surging prices, and there’s a risk that the UK’s worst inflation crisis in decades will take longer to ease fully, according to Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden
  • The UK economy unexpectedly contracted in March. Gross domestic product fell 0.1% from February, when growth was flat. It meant the economy expanded just 0.8% in the first quarter, less than the 1% forecast by economists
  • UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will spend the next few days considering whether the UK will introduce legislation to override its post- Brexit settlement with the EU, a move that risks sparking a trade war
  • A massive sell-off in cryptocurrencies wiped over $200 billion of wealth from the market in just 24 hours, according to estimates from price-tracking website CoinMarketCap
  • Finland’s highest-ranking policy makers President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin threw their weight behind an application and Sweden’s government is likely to do so in the coming days
  • Sweden’s Riksbank’s target measure, CPIF, accelerated to 6.4% on an annual basis in April, the highest level since 1991, according to data released on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected prices to rise by 6.2%

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pc stocks were pressured after the losses on Wall St where the major indices whipsawed in the aftermath of the firmer than expected CPI data and the DJIA posted a fifth consecutive losing streak. ASX 200 was lower amid heavy losses in tech and with financials subdued after flat earnings from Australia’s largest lender CBA. Nikkei 225 weakened with attention on earnings updates and with SoftBank amongst the worst performers ahead of its results later with the Co. anticipated to have suffered a record quarterly loss. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued with early pressure from default concerns after developer Sunac China missed its grace period deadline and warned there was no assurance that the group will be able to meet financial obligations, although the mainland bourse recovered its earlier losses after further policy support pledges by Chinese authorities. SoftBank (9984 JT) – FY revenue JPY 6.2trln (prev. 5.6trln Y/Y). FY net profits -1.7trln (prev. +4.99trln). Foxconn (2317 TT) Q1 net profit TWD 29.45bln (exp. 29.76bln); sees Q2 revenue flat Y/Y, sees smart consumer electronics slightly declining Y/Y.

Top Asian News

  • Rupee Tumbles to a Record Low, Stocks Slump on Inflation Woes
  • SoftBank Vision Fund Posts a Record Loss as Son’s Bets Fail
  • Yen Rebound Tipped as Recession Fears Push Down Treasury Yields
  • More Defaults Seen Following Sunac’s Failure: Evergrande Update

European bourses are pressured as overnight risk sentiment reverberated into the region, in a continuation of the post-CPI Wall St. move; Euro Stoxx 50 -2.5%. US futures are lower across the board though the magnitude is less extreme, ES -0.6%; NQ fails to benefit from the yield pullback as participants focus on the normalisation’s impact on tech. Walt Disney Co (DIS) – Q2 2022 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.08 (exp. 1.19), Revenue 19.25bln (exp. 20.03bln). Disney+ subscribers 137.7mln (exp. 134.4mln). ESPN+ subscribers 22.3mln (exp. 22.5mln) -5.0% in the pre-market.

Top European News

  • UK Retailers Sue Truckmakers Over Alleged Price Fixing
  • Rokos Raising $1 Billion as He Joins Macro Hedge Fund Surge
  • Siemens Abandons Russian Market After 170-Year Relationship
  • Hargreaves Tumbles as Peel Notes Macro, Geopolitical Impacts

FX

  • DXY tops 104.500 to set new 2022 peak as risk aversion intensifies.
  • Yen regains safe haven premium to buck broadly weak trend vs Dollar, USD/JPY sub-128.50 vs top just over 130.00.
  • Aussie and Kiwi flounder as commodities tumble on demand dynamics’; AUD/USD under 0.6900 and NZD/USD below 0.6250.
  • Euro and Sterling give up big figure levels with the Pound also undermined by worse than forecast UK data; EUR/USD down through 1.0500 then 1.0450, Cable beneath 1.2200 and eyeing 1.2150 next.
  • Swedish Crown holds up in wake of stronger than expected CPI and CPIF metrics; EUR/SEK straddles 10.6000.
  • Yuan crushed as PBoC and Chinese Government reaffirm commitment to provide economic support; USD/CNY 6.7900+, USD/CNH just shy of 6.8300.
  • Forint falls as NBH Deputy Governor contends that aggressive tightening period is over and future hikes likely more incremental.
  • HKMA picks up pace of intervention to defend HKD peg, CNB steps in to support CZK.

Fixed Income

  • Debt revival gathers pace amidst risk-off positioning elsewhere.
  • Bunds probe 155.00, Gilts reach 120.71 and 10 year T-note nudges 120-00.
  • BTP supply encounters few demand issues, unlike second US Quarterly Refunding leg ahead of USD 22bln long bond auction.

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are pressured in what has been a grinding move lower during European hours; however, benchmarks were lifted amid Kremlin/N. Korea updates.
  • Currently, the benchmarks are lower by around USD 1.50/bbl.
  • IEA OMR: Revises down oil demand growth projections for 2022 by 70k BPD, amid China lockdowns and elevated prices. Overall decline of Russian supply by 1.6mln BPD in May and 2mln BPD in June; could expand to circa. 3mln BPD from July onwards. Click here for more detail.
  • OPEC MOMR to be released at 13:00BST/08:00EDT.
  • Indian refineries purchased 25-30mln barrels of Russian oil at a discount for delivery in May-June, according to Interfax.
  • Spot gold/silver are pressured amid the USD’s revival, but, the yellow metal remains in relatively contained parameters around USD 1850/oz.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: May Initial Jobless Claims, est. 192,000, prior 200,000
  • 08:30: April Continuing Claims, est. 1.37m, prior 1.38m
  • 08:30: April PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.4%; YoY, est. 10.7%, prior 11.2%
  • 08:30: April PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 1.0%; YoY, est. 8.9%, prior 9.2%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It was all about the higher than expected US CPI report yesterday which added to Fed rate expectations, as well as hard landing expectations as revealed through the curve flattening that took place through the rest of the day. Longer dated Treasury yields fell (after initially spiking much higher) and equities fell sharply (S&P 500 -1.65%) after actually being higher for the first half of the US session. So a topsy-turvy day that kept the Vix above 30 for a fifth straight session.

In terms of the details of that report, headline monthly CPI surprised to the upside with a +0.3% gain (vs. +0.2% expected), whilst monthly core CPI also surprised to the upside at +0.6% (vs. +0.4% expected). Thanks to base effects from last year, the year-on-year numbers managed to decline in spite of the upside monthly surprises, but they were also higher than expected with headline CPI at +8.3% (vs. +8.1% expected), and core CPI at +6.2% (vs. +6.0% expected).

Looking at the components, what will concern the Fed is that there are plenty of signs that inflation pressures remain broad and can’t be pinned on transitory shocks like the spike in energy prices of late. For instance, owners’ equivalent rent (which makes up nearly a quarter of the inflation basket) was up +0.45%, which is its fastest monthly pace since June 2006. Rents also remained strong with a +0.56% increase, which is just shy of its February increase and still the second-highest since December 1987. Food prices (+0.9%) also continued to move higher in April, bringing their year-on-year gain to a 41-year high of +9.4%. One consolation might be that the Cleveland Fed’s trimmed mean (which removes the outliers in either direction) saw its smallest monthly increase since last August at +0.45%, even if it’s still increasing well above rates seen throughout the 2010s.

The fact the release surprised on the upside saw an immediate reaction across asset classes, with 10yr Treasury yields bouncing by more than +14bps intraday during the half hour following the report to 3.07%, before reversing all of this to end the day down -7.0bps to 2.92%. Ultimately the decline in real rates (-14.7bps) offset expectations of higher inflation (+8.1bps), but it was a different story at the front-end of the curve, where 2yr yields rose +2.5bps since the report was seen to raise the likelihood of larger hikes at the coming meetings, with the futures-implied rate for the December meeting rising +4.5bps on the day. In Asia, US 10 year yields are another -3.3bps lower with 2yrs flats. This has left the 2s10s curve at 24.3bps after trading as high as 48.5bps on Monday.

In terms of the reaction from Fed officials themselves, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he would support +50bp hikes until policy reaches neutral, which suggests more +50bp hikes than just the next two meetings, which has been the common line from Fed speakers of late. Markets are placing a 58% chance on a +50bp hike at September, up from 49% the day before. Markets also increased the chance they place on the Fed being forced into a +75bp hike even at the June meeting, pricing a 14% chance versus 10% yesterday. We will also get the May CPI release ahead of the next FOMC meeting in June, but by that point they’ll be in their blackout period, so this is the last print they’ll be able to comment on ahead of their next decision, and will frame the chatter around whether 75bps might be back on the table at some point given inflation looks to be proving stickier than many had expected.

For equities, the CPI print drove indices lower at the open, but they bounced around all day as volatility remained elevated, ultimately closing near the lows. The S&P 500 fell -1.65%, led by tech and mega cap shares, while the Vix ended above 30 for the fifth straight session for the first time since the post-invasion bout of volatility gripped equity markets. As mentioned, tech stocks were the main underperformer, with the NASDAQ down by -3.18% as investors priced in faster hikes from the Fed this year. Separately in Europe, equities outperformed their US counterparts for a 3rd consecutive day, with the STOXX 600 posting a +1.74% advance but closing well before the US slump.

Whilst the main focus yesterday was on the US CPI report, there was significant central bank news in Europe as well after ECB President Lagarde put out a strong signal that July would be when the ECB starts hiking rates for the first time in over a decade. In her remarks, she said that the first hike “will take place some time after the end of net asset purchases”, and that “this could mean a period of only a few weeks”. A July hike would be in line with the call from our own European economists here at DB (link here), who see four consecutive quarter point hikes from July, taking the deposit rate up to +0.50% by year-end. That was then echoed by a separate Bloomberg report later in the session, which said that ECB officials were “increasingly embracing a scenario” where interest rates moved into positive territory by year-end. ECB policy pricing by the end of the year actually fell -1.3bps to 26.5bps, as a broader sovereign bond rally overpowered this.

With other ECB speakers having already been signalling their openness to a July hike, European sovereign bonds reacted more to the US CPI report than Lagarde’s remarks. So we ended up with a similar pattern to Treasuries, whereby yields surged following the US release before falling back to end the day lower on growth fears. Ultimately, that meant yields on 10yr bunds were down -1.5bps at 0.98%, and there was a significant narrowing in peripheral spreads too, with the gap between 10yr Italian yields and bunds down -9.9bps.

Asian equity markets are weaker overnight. The Hang Seng (-0.94%) is the largest underperformer across the region this morning after the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened into the currency markets for the first time since 2019 to defend the local dollar from capital outflows. The authority bought about HK$1.589 billion from the market to bolster the exchange rate in order to bring it back within the trading band i.e., between 7.75 and 7.85 versus the US dollar. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-0.84%), Kospi (-0.56%) are also trading lower. Mainland Chinese stocks are showing a more mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite (+0.17%) higher while the CSI 300 (-0.07%) is a tad lower. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are flat but Euro Stoxx futures are catching down with the late US move last night and are around -2%.

According to the BOJ’s summary of opinions from the April 27-28 meeting, the board brushed aside the idea of countering sharp yen falls with interest rate hikes with several board members arguing in favour of maintaining the central bank’s massive stimulus programme.

Oil prices are lower in early Asian trade, taking a pause after Brent crude futures closed +4.93% higher last night. This morning, the contract is -1.15% down at $106.27/bbl as I type.

Elsewhere in markets, a significant story over the last 24 hours has been the significant price declines in a number of major cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is at $27,617 as I type, a level not seen since December 2020. Coinbase’s share price was down a further -26.40% yesterday, bringing its losses over the last week alone to almost -60%.

A few other headlines worth highlighting. The Dallas Fed announced that Lorie Logan, the current manager of the Fed’s portfolio, would assume the role of President, which makes her a voter on the FOMC next year. Given her remit has been to manage the balance sheet, little is known about her views about monetary policy as of yet.

Finally on the Brexit front, there was a further ratcheting up in the comments between the UK and the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol yesterday. UK PM Johnson said that “we need to sort it out”, and Levelling Up Secretary Gove said that “no option is off the table”. From the EU side however, Irish Foreign Minister Coveney said that the EU would need to react if the UK breached international law, and Bloomberg reported that the EU would likely suspend their trade deal with the UK if the UK were to revoke its commitments.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PPI reading for April, the weekly initial jobless claims, and UK GDP for Q1. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s De Cos and Makhlouf. And in the political sphere, US President Biden will be hosting ASEAN leaders at the White House, whilst G7 foreign ministers are meeting in Germany.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED down 3.71 PTS OR 0.12%   //Hang Sang CLOSED down 444.23 PTS OR 2.24%    /The Nikkei closed DOWN 464.92 OR 0.18%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.89%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6,7914    /Oil UP TO 104.54 dollars per barrel for WTI and down TO 106.17 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7914 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8189: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER//

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

END

3B  JAPAN

3c CHINA

COVID//LOCKDOWNS//WHEAT CRISIS

What is going on in China?

Is A Wheat Crisis Developing In China As Farmers Cut Crops Early?

WEDNESDAY, MAY 11, 2022 – 06:40 PM

As global food prices remain at record highs and war wages in Europe between two of the world’s largest grain suppliers, troubling videos from China show farmers slashing winter wheat production ahead of harvest times, adding even more uncertainty about food security. 

Bloomberg reports China’s agriculture ministry is very concerned about the matter. The ministry is investigating if there’s illegal destruction of wheat crops. 

The ministry said this comes three weeks before harvests, adding the crop was subjected to devastating floods late last year. There’s also concern that soggy field conditions in southern China due to abnormal rainfall could affect farmers’ ability to harvest. 

An analyst at Melbourne-based Thomas Elder Markets, Andrew Whitelaw, said it’s not surprising that farmers are cutting their wheat early for hay as this may be a better return on their money because of poor crop conditions. 

“If China has a poor crop this season, then they will likely have to continue with a strong import program … there are “already question marks around China’s food security ambitions,” Whitelaw said, adding that the country has ramped up wheat imports this year. 

Here are some videos of Chinese trucks loaded up with unripened wheat that will be used as animal feed instead flour for human consumption. 

The situation in China adds to wheat production concerns in Ukraine, Russia’s unlikeness to ship the crop to “unfriendly” countries, India’s threats of wheat export bans due to severe weather, and planting issues in the US Northern Plains and Canada because of wet conditions. As a result of all of these issues that may tighten global food markets even further, US wheat futures hit a 14-year high on Monday.

END

CHINA/LOCKDOWNS

A very important read…it is also the real estate breakup that is causing much of the slowdown in China

(Daniel Lacalle/Mises Institute)

The Chinese Slowdown: Much More Than COVID

WEDNESDAY, MAY 11, 2022 – 05:40 PM

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Mises Institute,

The most recent macroeconomic figures show that the Chinese slowdown is much more severe than expected and not only attributable to the covid-19 lockdowns.

The lockdowns have an enormous impact. Twenty-six of 31 China mainland provinces have rising covid cases and the fear of a Shanghai-style lockdown is enormous. The information coming from Shanghai proves that these drastic lockdowns create an enormous damage to the population. Millions of citizens without food or medicine and rising suicides have shown that the infamous “zero covid” policy often disguises mass population control and repression.

It is easy to use the covid-19 lockdowns as the reason for the weakening of the Chinese economy but that would be a gross simplification. The problem is deeper.

China is going through a severe slowdown caused by the burst of the enormous real estate bubble and the crackdown on the private sector, which has led to a cut in investment growth.

According to Nomura Research, China faces the worst slowdown since the covid outbreak in 2020 and the world should be worried about a further slide, as the challenges persist. Official gross domestic product (GDP) figures may be massaged to deliver the government’s target, but all other macro figures point to a much weaker growth.

We must remember that there are two ways in which the Chinese government “boosts” real GDP: By publishing a low inflation and GDP deflator figure and by massively increasing credit and infrastructure spending. However, those two cannot disguise the importance of the weakening of the Chinese economy, because it is now structural.

The collapse of the real estate bubble is the biggest problem. A research paper by Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang estimated that the real estate sector accounts for around 29 percent of China’s GDP. It is impossible for the Chinese government to offset the impact of such a massive part of the economy with other high-growth sectors. Furthermore, real estate’s impact on the job market is hard to substitute. Economist George Magnus warned that the impact of the real estate collapse would last for years.

To add to a difficult real estate problem, the government crackdown on the private sector makes it even more difficult to boost growth in other industries and businesses. The fear of constant political intervention is leading to a massive slowdown in foreign direct investment growth as well as fear of deploying capital and taking risks in the Chinese economy only to suffer grave penalties from the authorities when profits arrive.

The extent of the deterioration of the Chinese economy is evident in the recent leading indicators. The Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slumped to a twenty-five-month low of 48.1 in March 2022, signaling contraction. The Caixin Services PMI plummeted to 42.0 in March from 50.2 in February, dropping below the level that separates growth from contraction. This reading indicates the sharpest activity decline since February 2020.

The political intervention in the technology sector, which is one of the leading job creators in China, has sparked fears of frozen headcounts and layoffs, according to various media reports. Additionally, the decision of the central bank to cut reserve requirements for banks has not avoided a significant decline in credit growth, as reported by JP Morgan.

To all this we must add a currency, the yuan, which is used in less than 3 percent of global transactions, according to Reuters, due to the extreme capital controls and the exchange rate fixing imposed by the central bank. Confidence in the local currency is low due to the extreme intervention on the currency market, which is preventing China from having a truly international means of payment.

China’s high debt is also a problem. Total debt stands above 300 percent of GDP, according to the Institute of International Finance. The European Central Bank (ECB) points out that China’s debt-to-GDP ratio for the entire private sector now stands at over 250 percent and the corporate component of this debt is the highest in the world. The ECB points also to the risk created because a “significant proportion of funding is supplied to the corporate sector by non-bank financial institutions” leading to higher risk taking and a shadow banking system that leads to large inefficiencies and solvency challenges.

The aggressive and misguided lockdowns are affecting supply chains and activity, but the structural problems of rising intervention in the currency and industries, as well as a heavily indebted economy, are likely to drag on real growth and jobs for a long t

END

HONG KONG

OH OH cracks are starting to appear for the first time in Hong Kong where they have to defend the Hong Kong dollar:

First Cracks: Hong Kong Intervenes To Prop Up Local Currency For First Time Since 2019

WEDNESDAY, MAY 11, 2022 – 10:00 PM

Things are starting to crack.

Two days after we reported that the Chinese yuan had cratered (just days after we warned that China will soon devalue) in what appears to be a concurrent devaluation alongside the plunging yen…

… a move that was of extreme importance for markets, yet which few financial commentators were discussing, on Wednesday the surging US dollar forced Hong Kong to intervene and defend its currency for the first time since 2019, putting further upward pressure on interest rates in an economy already reeling from strict pandemic border controls and a shaky property market.

Capital outflows fueled by rising interest rates in the US and continued modest easing in China, sent the Hong Kong dollar to the weak end of its 7.75-to-7.85 per greenback trading range late Wednesday.

And with the barrier in danger of breach, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority – the local central bank – bought about HK$1.59 billion to prop up the currency, which was still trading at the weak end on Thursday morning local time.

The testing of the band’s limit on Wednesday came around the same time as faster-than-expected US inflation data sent the greenback briefly up and Treasury yields surging. While gauges of the US dollar and longer-maturity Treasury yields subsequently retreated, Hong Kong’s currency continues to hover right near the band’s edge.

While the HKMA may have prevented the breach of the peg for now, further intervention will drain liquidity from Hong Kong’s financial system, slamming local assets and driving up borrowing costs at a time when the local economy is contracting under the weight of some of the world’s strictest Covid-containment controls. Rising interest rates also pose a threat to Hong Kong’s property market, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. saying earlier this year that home prices in the world’s least affordable market may slump 20% by 2025.

While some commentators have called on Hong Kong to abandon its dollar peg, there’s little sign that authorities plan to change a system that has survived multiple speculative attacks since 1983 and helped turn the city into one of the world’s most important financial centers.

This time may be different, however, as selling of the local dollar has only intensified in recent months as the increasingly hawkish Fed boosted the US dollar, while pandemic restrictions in both China and the former British colony have damped local growth outlook, and forced authorities to keep rates and and consider how to ease further.

The Hong Kong dollar has weakened about 0.7% this year, far less thatn the Chinese yuan, with some of the declines coming as Fed rate hikes widened the funding rate gap between the US and the special administrative region, prompting traders to borrow the currency in the interbank market and sell it versus the higher-yielding greenback, Bloomberg reported. Making yield differential defense increasingly difficult, the premium of the three-month US interbank rate, known as Libor, over Hong Kong’s equivalent, Hibor, expanded to the widest since 2019 in April.

The Hong Kong dollar will remain under pressure as US yields climb on rate-hike bets, said Samuel Tse, an economist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Hong Kong.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/EU

.

FINLAND/NATO MEMBERSHIP

Finland Will Seek NATO Membership “Without Delay” As Russia Warns Of ‘Threat’ To National Security

THURSDAY, MAY 12, 2022 – 11:05 AM

In a final significant step just after the nation’s defense committee on Tuesday gave its formal recommendation in the affirmative, Finland’s president and prime minister have also now come out urging application for NATO membership “without delay”.

Sauli Niinisto and Sanna Marin said Thursday that a decision is likely during the next few days. “Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay,” they said in a joint statement. “We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days.”

A Thursday Pentagon spokesman statement was quick to welcome the imminent move, saying it would “not be difficult to integrate Finland into the NATO alliance” from a defense point of view, as cited by MSNBC.

At the same time NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg vowed that the membership process would be “smooth and swift” for Finland. “This is a sovereign decision by Finland, which NATO fully respects,” Stoltenberg said, emphasizing that the Scandinavian country which shares an 810-mile long border with Russia would be “warmly welcomed into NATO”.

Prior statements have indicated that Brussels would move to receive both Finland and Sweden – who have over the last month coordinated their intent to join the military alliance – “quite quickly” as Russia’s invasion and military occupation of Ukraine has continued to unfold.

Finland’s defense chiefs earlier this week had called eventual membership in NATO the “best option” for guaranteeing its national security, a significant U-turn given the till now stance of neutrality on the question, and amicable relations with its Russian neighbor.

Meanwhile the Kremlin has reacted to Finland’s leaders giving their approval, saying it definitely represents a threat to Russia and that it would take appropriate security measures. “The expansion of NATO and the approach of the military infrastructure of the alliance to our borders does not make the world, and most importantly our Eurasian continent, more stable and secure. This is unequivocal,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying in TASS.

“Everything will depend on how this expansion process plays out, the extent to which military infrastructure moves closer to our borders,” he added.

NATO is moving toward us. That’s of course why all of this will warrant a special analysis and the development of necessary measures needed to balance the situation and guarantee our security,” he continued.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA

What Sanctions? Russian Oil Revenues Soar 50%, Hitting A Record High

THURSDAY, MAY 12, 2022 – 02:00 PM

And the sanctions hits just keep on coming.

A few weeks after we learned that Russia’s current account just hit an all time high thanks due to soaring commodity exports (just as the US trade deficit blew out to a record high on its own)…

… we learned that contrary to the intentions of European countries, a calculation by a German think tank found that Russia’s oil and gas revenues hit a record high in April, rising to 1.8 trillion rubles in a single month, after 1.2 trillion in March, leading to the following stunning statistics “After only 4 months, Russia’s federal budget has now already received 50% of the planned oil and gas revenue for 2022 (9.5 trillion).”

Today, Bloomberg confirmed this stunning statistic and, citing the latest IEA report, writes that Russia’s oil revenues are up 50% this year “even as trade restrictions following the invasion of Ukraine spurred many refiners to shun its supplies.” Apparently the restrictions – which pushed the price of oil to the highest level in a decade and boosted revenue for oil exporters – is precisely what Putin was hoping for.

Moscow earned roughly $20 billion each month in 2022 from combined sales of crude and products amounting to about 8 million barrels a day, the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly market report.

As we have documented frequently, Russian shipments have continued to flow freely even as the European Union edges towards an import ban, and international oil majors such as Shell and TotalEnergies have pledged to cease purchases. Countering these self-imposed sanctions, Asia has remained a grateful and keen customer, with China and India picking up cargoes no longer wanted in Europe, and doing so at a huge discount to spot.

Even as Russia has kept oil output steady, reduced flows of Russian refined products such as diesel, fuel oil and naphtha have aggravated tightness in global markets, the IEA noted, echoing what we have said virtually every day for the past month. Stockpiles have declined for seven consecutive quarters, with reserves of so-called middle distillates at their lowest since 2008.

For all the disruption, Moscow has continued to enjoy a financial windfall compared with the first four months of 2021. Despite the EU’s public censure of the Kremlin’s aggression, total oil export revenues were up 50% this year.

Hilariously, despite all the posturing and rhetoric, the bloc remained the largest market for Russian exports in April, taking 43% of the country’s exports, the IEA said.

There is some hope yet that Europe’s sanctions won’t be all for nothing: supplies were down 1 million barrels a day last month, and these losses could triple in the second half of the year, the agency estimates. EU sanctions against Russian state-linked enterprises such as production giant Rosneft PJSC will take effect on May 15, and the bloc is moving towards a full ban on the country’s supplies.

“If agreed, the new embargoes would accelerate the reorientation of trade flows that is already underway and will force Russian oil companies to shut in more wells,” the IEA said.

END

/EU/RUSSIA//POLAND

THIS CAN HURT!!

POLAND

Inbox

Robert Hryniak8:47 AM (4 minutes ago)
to

Russia has imposed walking sanctions on a Polish company called EuroPol GAZ S.A. Which owns the Polish portion of the Yamal Europe natural gas pipe under a resolution by the Russian government as of May 11.

Any transaction was such entities is banned. Separately the information on the website bans this company from entering Russian ports, payments and securities transactions. This means Poland gets no more natural gas from Russia. 

And while the Russian financial ministry has power to grant temporary permission for certain operations with such sanctioned entities it is likely unlikely that gas will be turned on.

This pipe is a 2000 km pipeline and has a rated annual capacity of 33,000,000,000 m³. People in Poland as well as industry have just gotten a major wake up call which will result in increased gas prices shortly. How they’re going to make up the shortfall of natural gas is a real mystery. There is a new pipe built across the Baltic from Norway which was scheduled to come on stream in the fall but it is way behind schedule . It is likely that that pipe will not be completed until late winter early spring. The Ukrainians the other day cut off 1/3 of the gas the transit through their pipes, which affects the rest of Europe. This combination of events means that the only pipe to carry natural gas to Europe is Nord stream 1 with the exception of gas coming by way of the Mediterranean through the Turkish pipes, carrying gas from Russia. 

The immediate consequences of this move suggests that Poland‘s economy will suffer greatly while Hungary’s economy will increase given the fact that they have a long-term supply of natural gas through to 2036 at much lower prices the most other countries in Europe. Capital flow No Doubt will be outbound from Poland as opposed to investment coming in. There is talk already that the Chinese or abandoning any further investments in Poland. 

While the news seems to be about Finland joining NATO , which will cost them dearly in new spending on arms this Polish event is the real story today as the economic consequences are far reaching. One might imagine that as gas price increases rock the Polish econmy this will have a wider impact within Europe, in short order. 

 

end

A MUST READ…

The Drums of War Beat Louder – PaulCraigRoberts.org

Inbox

Robert Hryniak4:15 PM (43 minutes ago)
to

Poland will be very foolish to invade; Russia will not hesitate to nuke Poland to make an example. In less than 60 seconds Polish cities can disappear. Less than 2 minuets for Paris, Geneva and London will be the next decision if forced.
Only illusional or demented folks try to force the Russian hand. Putin has held back the hardliners in the Kremlin but the same will not hold for Poland.
The most recent move to ban Poland from natural gas is polite Russian warning of what maybe come.

 /

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE/

Acting NIH Director Admits Appearance Of Conflict Of Interest In Secret Royalty Payments To Fauci, Scientists

WEDNESDAY, MAY 11, 2022 – 09:40 PM

Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Undisclosed royalty payments estimated at $350 million from pharmaceutical and other firms to Dr. Anthony Fauci and hundreds of National Institutes for Health (NIH) scientists do present “an appearance of a conflict of interest,” according to the agency’s acting director.Acting Director of National Institutes of Health Lawrence Tabak testifies during a hearing before the Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies of House Appropriations Committee at Rayburn House Office Building on Capitol Hill May 11, 2022. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Dr. Lawrence Tabak, who took over as NIH Director following the December 2021 resignation of the agency’s long-time leader, Dr. Francis Collins, told a House Appropriations Committee subcommittee that federal law allows the royalty payments but he conceded they don’t look ethical.

Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) told Tabak that “right now, I think the NIH has a credibility problem and this only feeds into this, and I’m only just learning about this. People in my district say ‘well, so-and-so has a financial interest, or they don’t like Ivermectin because they aren’t benefitting from that royalty …

“You may have very sound scientific reasons for recommending a medicine or not, but the idea that people get a financial benefit from certain research that’s been done and grants that were awarded, that is to me the height of the appearance of a conflict of interest.”

In response, Tabak said NIH does not endorse particular medicines, but rather “we support the science that validates whether an invention is or is not efficacious, we don’t say this is good or this is bad … I certainly can understand that it might seem as a conflict of interest.”

Moolenaar seemed taken aback by Tabak’s response and, while pointing to Fauci, who was also testifying, said “truthfully, I would say you’ve had leaders of NIH saying certain medicines are not good.

Tabak said such statements by NIH are based on clinical trials that are supported by the agency.

Puzzled, Moolenaar then asked Tabak, “but if the agency is awarding who is the beneficiary of the grant, who is doing the trial, and there is somehow finances involved, that there is a financial benefit that could be accrued if someone’s patent or invention is considered validated, do you not see that as a conflict or at least the appearance of a conflict of interest?

After conceding that there is an appearance of a conflict of interest, Tabak suggested to Moolenaar that “maybe this is the sort of thing that we can work together on so that we can explain to you the firewalls that we do have, because they are substantial and significant.”

Moolenaar’s reference to Fauci was in regard to his telling the Associated Press in a 2005 article that first brought the NIH royalties issues into the headlines that he had donated his royalties to charity.

But the issue faded from the headlines after 2005, and is only now getting renewed attention as a result of revelations first reported on May 9 by The Epoch Times that documents obtained in a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit brought by a nonprofit government watchdog show an estimated $350 million in undisclosed royalty payments from pharmaceutical and other private firms to top NIH executives, as well as to hundreds of the agency’s health scientists and researchers.

The $350 million in royalty payments were made between 2010 and 2020, according to Open the Books, the nonprofit that took the NIH to court when it refused to acknowledge the group’s FOIA request for documents.

Collins received 14 payments, Fauci received 23 payments and his deputy, Clifford Lane, received eight payments, according to Open the Books.

Adam Andrzejewski, the founder and president of Open the Books, told The Epoch Times Wednesday that NIH continues to withhold important information about the royalty payments, including the names of particular payers and the specific amounts to individuals at NIH.

“With tens of billions of dollars in grant-making at NIH and tens of millions of royalty dollars from third-party payors flowing back into the agency each year, NIH needs to come clean with the American people and open the books. We need to be able to follow the money,” Andrzejewski said.

“We believe transparency will revolutionize U.S. public policy. There is no better example of this than the third-party (think pharmaceutical companies) payments to NIH scientists. Every single outside payment to a government scientist could be a conflict of interest,” he added.

The Moolenaar-Tabak exchange took place during a hearing on the Biden administration’s 2023 budget request.

Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Fla.), who is also a surgeon, told The Epoch Times that “it’s no secret that the agency needs reform. Their many issues were exacerbated and highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Providing the public with transparent access to how the NIH is spending taxpayer dollars and reaching their decisions is a basic responsibility, and they must be held accountable. Now more than ever, we must commit to reforming our federal health agencies and restoring America’s trust in public health.”

end

All the Democrats should be removed from office as they remain silent on the secret royalty checks to Fauci and Collins

(Tapscott/EpochTimes)

Democrats Silent As Republicans Rip Into Secret Royalty Checks To Fauci, Hundreds Of NIH Scientists

THURSDAY, MAY 12, 2022 – 03:01 PM

Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times,

Top Democratic leaders with oversight of the National Institutes for Health (NIH) are keeping quiet about the $350 million in secret payments to agency leaders like Dr. Anthony Fauci and hundreds of its scientists.

The Epoch Times received no responses from multiple requests to Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) for comment on a report by a non-profit government watchdog estimating that Fauci, former NIH director Francis Collins, and hundreds of NIH scientists got as much as $350 million in undisclosed royalty payments from pharmaceutical and other private firms between 2010 and 2020.

The revelations from Open the Books, which were first reported on May 9 by The Epoch Times, are based on thousands of pages of documents the group obtained from NIH in a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit in federal court. The suit was filed by Judicial Watch on behalf of Open the Books.

Open the Books is a Chicago-based nonprofit government watchdog that uses the federal and state freedom of information laws to obtain and then post on the internet trillions of dollars in spending at all levels of government.

House Committee on Energy and Commerce Chairman Frank Pallone (D-N.J.) speaks at a hearing in Washington, on June 23, 2020. (Kevin Dietsch-Pool/Getty Images)

Pallone is chairman of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, while Murray is chairman of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions. Their panels are the main congressional oversight tools for NIH.

A spokesman for NIH also did not respond to multiple requests from The Epoch Times for comment.

Because NIH hands out $32 billion in research grants to medical institutions and researchers annually the undisclosed royalty payments, which are usually for work on a new drug, may indicate the presence of massive and widespread conflicts of interest or the appearance of such conflicts, both of which violate federal ethics laws and regulations.

Collins resigned as NIH director in December 2021 after 12 years of leading the world’s largest public health agency.

Fauci is the longtime head of NIH’s National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), as well as chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden.

Lane is the deputy director of NIAID, under Fauci.

NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins holds up a model of the coronavirus as he testifies before a Senate Appropriations Subcommittee looking into the budget estimates for the National Institute of Health (NIH) and the state of medical research, on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 26, 2021. (Sarah Silbiger/Pool via AP)

Fauci received 23 royalty payments during the period, while Collins was paid 14. Clifford Lane, Fauci’s deputy, got eight payments, according to Open the Books.

While Pallone and Murray were silent on the secret NIH payments, Republicans expressed outrage at what they see as serious conflicts of interest.

Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) told The Epoch Times, “the NIH is a dark money pit. They covered up grants for gain of function research in Wuhan, so it is no surprise that they are now refusing to release critical data regarding allegations of millions in royalty fees paid to in-house scientists like Fauci.

“If the NIH wants to keep spending taxpayer dollars, they have a responsibility to provide transparency.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said, “This report is disturbing and if it is true that some of our country’s top scientists have conflict of interest problems, the American people deserve to have all the answers.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) asks questions during a Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Sept. 21, 2021. (Ken Cedeno/AFP via Getty Images)

Similarly, Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) called for an investigation, noting that, “Of course it’s a direct conflict of interest for scientists like Anthony Fauci to rake in $350 million in royalties from third-parties who benefit from federal taxpayer-funded grants.

“Anthony Fauci is a millionaire that has gotten rich off taxpayer dollars. He is a prime example of the bloated federal bureaucracy. This royalty system should be examined to ensure it isn’t making matters worse.”

Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) said the latest revelations are further evidence that Fauci should be fired.

“Fauci and the NIH have repeatedly abused the trust of the American people.

“From lying about gain of function research to walking back claims about COVID-19, this latest allegation is just another nail in the coffin of the integrity of our public health system.

“Dr. Fauci should have been fired a long time ago, and that remains true today,” Carter told The Epoch Times.

Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) is seen during a hearing in Washington in a file photograph. (Greg Nash/Pool/Getty Images)

Mike Howell, a veteran congressional counsel and investigator who is now senior adviser on government relations at the Heritage Foundation, told The Epoch Times he thinks NIH could be in for trouble on the Hill in 2023 if voters return Republicans to majority control of the Senate and House in November’s mid-term elections.

“This Congress has not only failed to perform any serious oversight of the Biden administration, but is in many cases complicit in covering for them.

“When new majorities take over next over year, they will have a mandate to get to the bottom of scandals like this.”

Another Heritage expert, Douglas Badger, pointed to the need for a systematic re-examination of federal ethics statutes and an oversight investigation of the NIH royalties by Congress.

“Government scientists who are collecting royalties in connection with work they did in the course of their official duties must disclose this information to the public. The potential for conflict of interest is obvious,” Badger said.

The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) building is seen in Washington, on July 22, 2019. (Alastair Pike/AFP via Getty Images)

“The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) should revise its ethics guidance to require such disclosure, federal agencies should respond fully and promptly to freedom of information act requests concerning these royalties, and Congress should conduct an oversight investigation to assure that royalties paid by private companies to government scientists do not compromise the integrity of executive branch agencies.”

Badger is a senior fellow in Heritage’s Center for Health and Welfare Policy.

Rick Manning, president of Americans for Limited Government, also pointed to the potential seriousness of the apparent conflicts of interest, and the need for a congressional probe.

“The obvious conflict of interest for the public health scientist recipients of the hundreds of millions of dollars in royalty payments calls into question who they have been working for,” Manning asked.

“Congress must demand a full, non-redacted accounting of these payments along with the projects these public employees have been involved in and stakeholder interests in those projects.

“At a time when the truthfulness of public officials like Dr. Fauci, have come under intense scrutiny, it is critical for these relationships to be fully disclosed,” he said.

In a related development earlier this week, Rep. Brett Guthrie told a meeting of an energy and commerce subcommittee examining Biden’s 2023 budget proposal for HHS that the department that includes NIH needs much more congressional oversight.

“Oversight is especially important given the huge increases in funding requested by the Biden administration. The HHS budget before us today calls for a 12 percent increase in discretionary spending at HHS for Fiscal Year 2023,” Guthrie told the subcommittee.

“The budget specifically gives more than a $6 billion combined boost in funding to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Institutes of Health, both of which have come under fire recently over controversial masking guidance and COVID-19 research funded by NIH using American taxpayer dollars,” Guthrie continued.

“We need to hold NIH accountable and ensure taxpayer dollars are not going to labs engaging in risky gain-of-function research and ensure researchers are transparent about how they are spending taxpayer funded research grants,” the Kentucky Republican said.

GLOBAL ISSUES

VACCINE INJURIES

END

VACCINE IMPACT

Australian Children Are Dying After Pfizer COVID Injections

May 11, 2022 2:10 pm

During a 17-day period in March 2022: 2 boys aged 6 and 7; and, a 9-year-old girl died after being injected with Pfizer’s “vaccine” – and there are many more victims. Up to 10 April the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) received around 1,200 adverse reaction reports to Covid injections in children aged 5-11. The latest summary of adverse events was published by the TGA on 5 May 2022. It shows that 124,669 adverse events post-Covid injection have been reported – a rate of 2.2 per 1,000 doses.  Regarding Pfizer injections given to children the TGA states: “To 1 May 2022, we have received about 4,112 reports … in 12-17-year-olds. The most commonly reported reactions are chest pain, headache, dizziness, nausea and fever … we have received about 1,311 reports from … Comirnaty (Pfizer) doses administered in [5 to 11-year-olds]. The most common reactions reported included chest pain, vomiting, fever, headache and abdominal pain. ATAGI [Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation] advises that people who develop myocarditis attributed to their first vaccine dose should defer further doses of an mRNA Covid-19 vaccine and discuss this with their treating doctor.” As of 27 April 2022, the latest information publicly available on the Database of Adverse Events Notification (“DAEN”), there had been 839 reports where death was the outcome post-injection.

Read More…


Will Supreme Court Let Bayer-Monsanto Off the Hook for Cancer-Causing Glyphosate Herbicide Roundup?

May 11, 2022 5:19 pm

In June of 2020 it was announced that Bayer-Monsanto had reached the “largest settlement in pharma history” by agreeing to pay $10 Billion to settle about 125,000 lawsuits by people who died or came down with cancer from glyphosate poisoning, the main ingredient in Roundup, the world’s most heavily used herbicide (weed killer) that is found in most food today. But there is one lawsuit that Bayer has contested, where plaintiff Edwin Hardeman was awarded $80 million in damages due to having non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), a known side effect to too much exposure with glyphosate. The trial court judge reduced his settlement award to $25 million, and Bayer appealed the decision, which was upheld by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals. It is now before the U.S. Supreme Court, and U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar has recommended that the Supreme Court deny Bayer’s appeal. The stakes are high, as the Supreme Court’s ruling could affect all future lawsuits against Bayer-Monsanto, and possibly even past lawsuits. What will the Supreme Court do, and just what are the Wall Street Billionaires and Bankers who largely control the Supreme Court planning behind the scenes in all of this? To rule in favor of Bayer could save investors $billions, and allow the EPA to continue to authorize the use of the world’s most deadly herbicide to continue to be sold and used to poison our food supply. If they allow the decision of the Ninth Circuit to stand, how will that affect what the EPA does next regarding approving Roundup for agricultural use? While many people and groups have been calling on a ban of glyphosate-based herbicides, the fact is that if it is banned outright immediately, a very significant percentage of agriculture will no longer be able to produce food, as certain crops, such as corn, are over 90% genetically modified and could not grow without the herbicide Roundup. It would take many years to transition to something else. Whatever the reasons are behind the scenes for what the Supreme Court does, the stakes are high, and the results could be disastrous no matter which way the High Court rules. The best case scenario would be to allow all these lawsuits from people killed or injured by glyphosate to receive their settlements, and to put pressure on the EPA to start phasing out the use of Roundup giving farmers enough time to make the transition, so as to not bring major disruptions to the already fragile food supplies. But in that scenario the people would win, and Wall Street would lose, and that is just not something I see happening much, if at all, in today’s judicial system.

Read More…


END

Michael Every//

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

7. OIL ISSUES

This could send oil prices to $300.00

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

The NOPEC Bill Could Send Oil Prices To $300

THURSDAY, MAY 12, 2022 – 07:30 AM

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

If the U.S. passes the NOPEC bill, a bill designed to pave the way for lawsuits against OPEC members for market manipulation, the oil market could face even more chaos. OPEC’s most influential energy ministers warned against passing the legislation, suggesting it could send oil prices soaring by 200% or 300%.

“The last thing we want is someone trying to hinder that system,” the UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said at a conference in Abu Dhabi, referring to the system OPEC has had in place for decades to ensure supply to the market is adequate (adequate according to OPEC’s view). 

“If you hinder that system, you need to watch what you’re asking for, because having a chaotic market you would see … a 200% or 300% increase in the prices that the world cannot handle,” al-Mazrouei said at a panel at the World Utilities Congress hosted by CNBC’s Dan Murphy. 

As gasoline prices in America hit record highs, some lawmakers are looking to resurrect the NOPEC legislation that would allow the U.S. Attorney General to sue OPEC or its member states for antitrust behavior. 

Forms of a NOPEC bill have been considered in Congress committees for nearly two decades, but they have never moved past committee discussions. 

Now OPEC is warning of greater market chaos if NOPEC becomes law. But it’s not only OPEC that has been warning about the implications for America in setting a precedent to remove sovereign immunity. The most powerful oil lobby in the United States, the American Petroleum Institute (API), is also against such legislation, arguing it would bring unintended harm to America’s oil and gas industry and American interests in the world. So is the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, while the White House expressed “concerns” about the potential implications of such a law.

Last week, the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee approved the so-called No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act (NOPEC). 

Forms of antitrust legislation aimed at OPEC were discussed at various times under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, but they both threatened to veto such legislation.

This time, it’s unclear if the bill would be moved for discussion at the Senate, or then to President Joe Biden’s desk, and it’s unclear whether he would sign such legislation into law. 

Commenting on the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee’s approval of the NOPEC bill, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said last week: 

“I don’t have an official position on this legislation right now, but we do believe that this potential — the potential implications and unintended consequences of this legislation require further study and deliberation, particularly during this dynamic moment in the global energy markets brought about by President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.”

“So, we’re taking a look at it and certainly have some concerns about what the potential implications could be,” Psaki added. 

Major trade groups have already expressed opposition to the bill, arguing it could backfire on America’s oil and gas industry and U.S. interests. 

The bill could have an unintended negative impact on America’s oil and gas industry, the API said in a letter seen by Reuters. 

The API has opposed NOPEC legislation during previous discussions of a bill. In 2019, under President Donald Trump, the institute told the then-members of the Senate and House Judiciary Committees, “We see this legislation as creating significant detrimental exposure to U.S. diplomatic, military and business interests while having limited impact on the market concerns driving the legislation.” 

“The legislation threatens serious, unintended consequences for the U.S. natural gas and oil industry,” and it “represents a political act aimed at removing a sovereign nation’s litigation immunity from certain U.S. laws and opens the opportunity for reciprocal or even additional action on the part of those impacted countries,” the API said more than two years ago. 

Last week, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce addressed the Senate Committee on the Judiciary, saying it opposes the bill known as S. 977.  

“Although S. 977 is intended to be limited to restraint of trade in oil, natural gas or petroleum products, the Committee should be wary of the precedent it would create. Once sovereign immunity has been eliminated for one action of a state or its agents, it can be eliminated for all state actions and the actions of agents of the state,” the Chamber of Commerce said.  

“Under reciprocal legal regimes, the United States and its agents throughout the world could be tried before foreign courts – perhaps including the military – for any activity that the foreign state wishes to make an offense,” it added.  

end

Biden lacks a brain on this one:

Biden Admin Cancels Huge Alaska Oil And Gas Lease As Gas Prices Hit Record Highs

THURSDAY, MAY 12, 2022 – 10:24 AM

The Biden administration has canceled one of the most high-profile oil and gas lease sales which was pending before the Department of the Interior, at a time when Americans are suffering from record-high prices at the pump.

The DOI’s reasoning? A “lack of industry interest in leasing in the area” of more than 1 million acres in the Cook Inlet in Alaska. What’s more, the department also halted two leases under consideration in the Gulf of Mexico due to “conflicting court rulings that impacted work on these proposed lease sales,” according to CBS News.

“The Department also will not move forward with lease sales 259 and 261 in the Gulf of Mexico region, as a result of delays due to factors including conflicting court rulings that impacted work on these proposed lease sales,” said an agency spokesperson.

Federal law requires DOI to stick to a five-year leasing plan for auctioning offshore leases. The department had until the end fo the current five-year plan – due to expire on June 30 – to complete the sales.

Within his first week in office, President Biden signed an executive order temporarily suspending new oil and gas leases on federal lands. The administration resumed the new leasing last month following court challenges against the ban. The administration is appealing a ruling in which Judge James Cain, a Trump appointee, struck down the ban. –Fox Business

In Wednesday remarks to Fox Business, former Trump-Pence EPA transition member Steve Milloy traced the lease cancellations to Biden.

“In Alaska, the problem was that the greens scared off virtually everyone,” he said. “It’s expensive to explore and drill, and the greens made it pretty clear, they were going to make it even more difficult.”

According to Milloy, pressure from climate activists scared oil companies away after former President Trump opened Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling – a move which attracted just three bidders, including the state of Alaska itself.

“I blame Biden for all lack of production. He has scared away investment,” he said. “I don’t trust him in court defending leasing.”

Frank Macchairola, a top official with the American Petroleum Institute – the country’s largest oil and gas trade association, called the cancellation “another example of the administration’s lack of commitment to oil and gas development in the US.”

“The President has spoken about the need for additional supplies in the market, but his administration has failed to take action to match that rhetoric,” he told CBS News, adding that politically it won’t “play well.”

“In the kind of price environment that we’re seeing, there are negative consequences to shutting off oil and gas development, both politically and practically,” he said.

According to AAA’s gas price calculatoraverage gas prices in the US have hit record highs in recent days – with the national average reaching $4.374 on Tuesday, and $4.404 on Wednesday, both records. 

By region, the West Coast, Illinois, Nevada and Alaska are suffering the most, with gas well into the high five-dollar range. Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and neighboring states have some of the lowest gas prices.

The White House has blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine for the record prices, referring to it as the “Putin Price Hike.” Biden also committed to release 1 million barrels of oil daily from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months – which as we’ve noted several times, provided a temporary drop in the price of oil.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0416 DOWN 0.0101 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 128.53   DOWN 1.3010 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2198 DOWN   0.0035

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 3.71 POINTS UP 0.12%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  DOWN 464.92 PTS OR 1.97%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  1.89%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 444.23 PTS OR 2.24%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.71 PTS UP 0.12% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.89% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 464.92 OR 1.97%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1847.35

silver:$21.05

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 104.54  up 69  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.94%  DOWN 15  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.232% UP 0    AND 9/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.89%// DOWN 15   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.72  DOWN 19   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.85.% DOWN 0 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for Wednesday /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0367  DOWN 0.01447    or 145 basis points

USA/Japan: 128.31 DOWN 1.55 OR YEN UP 155  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2183 DOWN 50  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0068 OR 68 BASIS pts up to 1.3063

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.787  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.8273

TURKISH LIRA:  15.39  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.234

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  2.839% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.000DOWN 4 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 104.88 up 100   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 114.32 PTS OR 1.56%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 89.20  POINTS OR 0.64%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 63.47 PTS OR 1.01% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED  DOWN 112.20 OR 1.35%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 157.97 PTS OR  0.67%

WTI Oil price 104.79   12: EST

Brent Oil:  107.14 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  67.00   UP 2 & 4/10       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.00

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0374 DOWN  .0138   OR DOWN 138 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.21919 DOWN .0072  or  72 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 128.33 DOWN 1.513//YEN UP 4151BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3052 up .0056 (CDN dollar down 56 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 106.80

Brent OIL:  108.02

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.884 DOWN 7 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.017  DOWN 2  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 15.39

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE:  63.30 DOWN  3 AND 9/10 ROUBLES (ROUBLE UP 3.9 ROUBLES/USA

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 104.07 PTS OR 0.33%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 22.06 PTS OR .18%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 32.74 UP 0.18 PTS (0.55%)

GLD: 170.17 DOWN2.65 PTS OR 1.53%

SLV/ 19.12 DOWN .75 PTS OR 3.77%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bonds Bid As Nasdaq Faces Worst Drawdown Since ‘Lehman’

THURSDAY, MAY 12, 2022 – 04:01 PM

And the word of the day is…

Another chaotic day in the illiquid US equity markets with bloodbathery rescued in the last hour by yet another magical mysterious bid helped by SF Fed’s Mary Daly commenting that hiking by 50bps per meeting is likely (which somehow the market sees as bullish!!!)…

The ramp at the close had the smell of a short-squeeze test – look at the price action in CVNA, MSTR, and GME – someone was testing them for a squeeze…

The S&P 500 came within 2pts of its bear market today (3855 was the level and it seemed like someone really didn’t want that to happen)…

…but the Nasdaq is now down 32% from its highs – the biggest drawdown since the Great Financial Crisis…

Here’s one way of looking at it!

SF Fed’s Daly came in late in the day and said she “would like to see continued tightening of financial conditions.”

Things would be getting serious if that’s the case as The Fed clearly thinks that crashing the stock market will somehow unlock broken supply chains and ‘fix’ inflation…

Source: Bloomberg

If financial conditions tighten much further, they will be at their tightest since the European financial crisis! Will The Fed still stand its hawkish ground?

The current aggregate bottom-up analyst consensus forecast for the S&P 500 by year-end is 5119… which is a 32% rally from here!

While Bloomberg Intelligence sees a ‘base case’ for the S&P above current levels, downsides from a recession… or stagflation… are considerably lower…

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P 500 would only need to fall another 4.4% to 3,760, which is the level where investors are pricing in a U.S. economic downturn, BI data shows.

“It doesn’t mean a recession is imminent because there is still a lot of strength in the U.S. economy, but it seems like the market is starting to think it’s possible,” Wolff said.

“If the market is pricing one in, we still have more room to fall. That’s another sign we haven’t bottomed entirely yet.”

Since 2009, each major decline in the S&P 500 of 15% or more saw the portion of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average drop to 5% or less, while the 14-day relative strength index fell below 30, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Currently, both of these metrics still exceed those prior thresholds: The portion of equities in the benchmark index that trade above their 50-day moving average is 15% and RSI sits at 32.

Source: Bloomberg

“Why aren’t we oversold? It’s because there still hasn’t been panic selling,” said Andrew Thrasher, a technical analyst and portfolio manager at Financial Enhancement Group.

“People aren’t running out the door with their hair on fire. When large declines are led mostly by mega-cap tech and growth stocks like Apple, Amazon and Tesla, we won’t see a big washout in breadth.”

Source: Bloomberg

The lack of “capitulation,” or a sign of a bottom in stock prices, is likely the result of investors hanging on to U.S. equities as an inflation hedge, particularly as value and low-volatility stocks continue to hold up well, according to Gillian Wolff, senior associate analyst at BI.

“When there’s a market bottom, nearly all of the equity market typically sells off. But this massive decline still isn’t the end,” Wolff said.

“We haven’t reached the low yet because we’re coming off pretty inflated earnings for mega-cap growth stocks. There’s still so much room to fall even as investors dump expensive tech shares.”

The S&P 500 will likely head even lower and test a notable Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level at 3,815 before finding support, according to Mark Newton, a technical strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors.

“Despite sentiment having turned bearish, there hasn’t been sufficient capitulation yet,” Newton said in a note to clients.

“While price is getting nearer, time still looks early for a low, which points to June as being more probable. Bottom line, if 3,815 is broken, it could be likely that 3,500 might come into play.”

Source: Bloomberg

As stocks have puked, VIX has refused to spike to give the squeezers any vol-selling ammo for a bounce

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were bid across the curve with the short-end outperforming (2Y -10bps, 30Y -4bps). On the week, the belly is leading the drop with 5Y/7Y down 30bps!

Source: Bloomberg

10Y yields are now well below 3.00% and today’s 30Y auction yielded 2.997%…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, the post-CPI hawkish shift in rate-expectations has been erased as stocks puke – suggesting the market is starting to call The Fed’s inflation-fighting bluff in the face of stock market carnage…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended yesterday’s gains, holding up near 20 year highs, breaking out of the post-FOMC plunge range…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin crashed below $26,000 overnight – erasing all of 2021’s gains – then bounced back to almost $30k intraday before sliding back as the equity market weakened in the afternoon…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold tumbled to its lowest since early Feb…

Oil clung to gains today with WTI holding above $106 (well above pre-Putin levels and above Biden’s SPR release levels)…

Finally, the Build Bear Bigger market rolls on…

Source: Bloomberg

As Jen Psaki remarked earlier in the year, “unlike his predecessor, President Biden does not look at the stock market as a means by which to judge the economy.”

But it could be worse…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NlbnNpdGl2ZV9tZWRpYV9pbnRlcnN0aXRpYWxfMTM5NjMiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiaW50ZXJzdGl0aWFsIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9yZXN1bHRfbWlncmF0aW9uXzEzOTc5Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InR3ZWV0X3Jlc3VsdCIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1524685453688987649&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fbonds-bid-sp-enters-bear-nasdaq-plunges-worst-drawdown-lehman&sessionId=52a909dad63ca9e8f560f13aa73e3de2a2c6a8c4&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=c8fe9736dd6fb%3A1649830956492&width=550px

Remember, you never go full Gerber.

END

I) /MORNING TRADING/

II)USA data

Much higher producer prices and this is an input for costs of good. It means inflaton will get much hotter

(zerohedge)

US Producer Prices Rise More Than Expected In April

THURSDAY, MAY 12, 2022 – 08:36 AM

After yesterday’s hotter-than-expected CPI, analysts expected US Producer Price inflation to slow modestly in April (from +11.2% YoY to +10.7% YoY) but just like CPI, PPI rose more than expected at +11.0% YoY (up 0.5% MoM)…

Source: Bloomberg

Core PPI missed expectations, rising 0.4% MoM (vs 0.6% MoM exp) and up 8.8% YoY (vs +8.9% YoY exp).

In April, the rise in the index for final demand is primarily attributable to a 1.3-percent advance in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand construction increased 4.0 percent, while prices for final demand services were unchanged. 

A big slowdown in PPI in goods and services in April over March…

But on a YoY basis, PPI Goods prices are accelerating at a record pace while Services are barely off record highs…

While final demand PPI did slow its growth – still extremely high – pressure from the intermediate demand pull remains high (even though that is also rolling over)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, margin pressures continues to build as the PPI-CPI spread remains deep in the red for the 16th straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

The data suggest persistent inflation in the production pipeline will continue to filter through to consumer prices, which rose in April by more than forecast, driven by categories like shelter, food, airfare and new vehicles. Producers are likely to continue facing higher costs as Russia’s war in Ukraine and Covid-related lockdowns in China further strain supply chains, adding to the probability they’ll pass those expenses onto consumers.

end

Labor Market Cracking: Jobless Claims Rise To 3 Month High

THURSDAY, MAY 12, 2022 – 09:04 AM

Two weeks after we learned that in Q1, US GDP had “shockingly” contracted, just one pillar was left holding up the “strong” US economy, the same economy that the Fed’s record tightening cycle is hoping to push into recession: the labor market. However, that too has now turned, and one week after a big ADP private payrolls miss, after the ISM manufacturing employment index printed just shy of contraction where the ISM Services employment index already is, and after the first positive print in the Challenger job cuts index since Jan 2021…

… it now appears that even though the official payrolls report continues to paint a somewhat rosy picture, the labor market has also officially peaked, because moments ago the BLS reported that in the week ending April 7, initial claims jumped 203,000, up from the upward revised 202,000 print a week earlier, and 11K more than the 192K consensus forecast, and the highest print since February 11, a troubling confirmation that the best days for the US jobs market are now behind us.

The breakdown by state did not show any notable outliers with the exception of New York State which saw the drop, reversing the prior week’s move when it surged the most.

That said, even though the labor market has peaked, there is clearly still a ways to go before the US jobs market is in freefall – the bogey that the Fed needs to see before it halts its tightening – although now that weakness is starting to set in, keep a close eye on more reports of corporate mass layoffs (such as this week’s unexpected notice from Carvana which just laid off more than 10% of its workers). Enough of those, and even the BLS will have to admit that the final pillar propping up the US economy has just turned red.

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iiia) USA inflation// commodity//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//”

end

IIIB) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

More and more USA companies laying off people

(zerohedge)

The Growing List Of US Companies Laying People Off

WEDNESDAY, MAY 11, 2022 – 08:00 PM

As the economy continues to grind to a halt and inflation continues to run rampant, U.S. businesses are starting to realize the obvious – that they are stretched too thin financially – and are starting to cut unnecessary fat from their respective organizations.

So much for “building back better”…

In fact, layoffs are now “sweeping across American businesses,” according to a new report from Insider, who recently ran down a list of the U.S. companies that have begun hacking away at their respective labor forces. 

In addition to the names you’d expect to be on the list, like Peloton (has laid off 2,800 people) and Netflix, there were also some lesser known and private company names that are making material layoffs. ‘

Better has been laying off 4,000 people from “late 2021” and “through the first several months of 2022”. CEO Vishal Garg reportedly told employees during a Zoom meeting that the company, “lost $100 million last quarter,” which he said, “was my mistake.”

He didn’t lay himself off, however, to the best of our understanding. 

Weight loss app Noom has recently laid off hundreds of coaches as part of a total of laying off 495 people, the report says. Noom appeared to already be stretched thin, with coaches reportedly responsible for “giving advice to hundreds of users at any given time.”

Thrasio, which is a company that created the Amazon aggregator market, has laid off 20% of its staff, the report says. A memo sent to employees blamed the layoffs on the company’s “hypergrowth” model of acquisitions. A memo sent to employees said: “At times we have been acquiring a new company almost every week and running hard to build the infrastructure to support this growth.”

Robinhood has also joined the party, laying off more than 300 people, the report says. Their layoffs come after the company’s staff grew from just 700 people to 3,800 people during 2020 and 2021, when the app saw an explosion of users thanks to the pandemic and its associated free government handout cash.

Wells Fargo is also making layoffs in its mortgage-related positions. A spokesperson for the company said to Insider: “We are carrying out displacements in a transparent and thoughtful manner and providing assistance, such as severance and career counseling. Additionally, we are committed to retaining as many employees as possible and will do everything we can to help them identify other opportunities within Wells Fargo.”

Pot company Canopy Growth is also laying off employees, with 250 people expected to get the axe. Canopy Growth CEO David Klein said the layoffs were “to ensure the size and scale of our operations reflect current market realities and will support the long-term sustainability of our company.”

Celebrity video app Cameo is laying off 87 people, its CEO also confirmed. Last Wednesday he commented: “Today has been a brutal day at the office. I made the painful decision to let go of 87 beloved members of the Cameo Fameo.”

And we have a feeling the list is just getting started…

END.

iv)swamp stories

Garland Perjury? FBI Whistleblowers Say Parents Investigated With Counterterrorism “Threat Tag”

WEDNESDAY, MAY 11, 2022 – 09:20 PM

An FBI whistleblower has revealed that ‘dozens’ of investigations into parents voicing their opposition to topics ranging from Critical Race Theory to mask mandates were investigated using a “threat tag” created by the agency’s counterterrorism division – directly contradicting Attorney General Merrick Garland’s 2021 testimony denying that the Department of Justice had been weaponized.

According to a letter from Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and Mike Johnson (R-LA), “We now have evidence that contrary to your testimony, the Federal Bureau of Investigation has labeled at least dozens of investigations into parents with a threat tag created by the FBI’s Counterterrorism Division to assess and track investigations related to school boards.

The letter cites an October 4th memo issued by Garland announcing a concentrated effort to target any threats of violence, intimidation, and harassment by parents toward school personnel.

“We have learned from brave whistleblowers that the FBI has opened investigations with the EDUOFFICIALS threat tag in almost every region of the country,” adding “The information we have received shows how, as a direct result of your directive, federal law enforcement is using counterterrorism resources to investigate protected First Amendment activity.”

Three examples were provided, including at least one member of “Moms for Liberty,” a nonprofit dedicated to helping parents fight for conservative values in the classroom.

This whistleblower information is startling,” the letter continues. “You have subjected these moms and dads to the opening of an FBI investigation about them, the establishment of an FBI case file that includes their political views, and the application of a “threat tag” to their names as a direct result of their fundamental constitutional right to speak and advocate for their children.”

This information is evidence of how the Biden Administration is using federal law enforcement, including counterterrorism resources, to investigate concerned parents for protected First Amendment activity.”

Reactions to the whistleblower revelations has been harsh:

The letter is similar to a November, 2001 memo from Jordan to Garland

A ‘protected disclosure’:

In mid-November, House Judiciary Committee Republicans sent a letter to Garland after an FBI whistleblower came forward with “a protected disclosure” – claiming that “the FBI’s Counterterrorism Division had been compiling and categorizing threat assessments related to parents, including a document directing FBI personnel to use a specific “threat tag” to track potential investigations.”

“This disclosure provides specific evidence that federal law enforcement operationalized counterterrorism tools at the behest of a left-wing special interest group against concerned parents,” the letter continues.

END

John Durham Says FBI, Intelligence Agencies Slowly Producing Classified Materials

THURSDAY, MAY 12, 2022 – 02:19 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Special counsel John Durham on Tuesday filed court papers saying that the FBI and U.S. intelligence are slowly producing documents related to his case against Igor Danchenko, who prosecutors say lied to investigators about how he obtained information that later appeared in the controversial and discredited Steele dossier that was used against former President Donald Trump.

Durham asked U.S. District Judge Anthony Trenga (pdf) to set a new deadline for June 13 from May 13 to turn over classified materials to Danchenko’s attorneys. So far, most of the classified documents have been handed over to Danchenko’s lawyers, although Durham said that “recent world events continue to contribute to delays in the processing and production of classified discovery,” possibly referring to the Ukraine–Russia conflict.

“In particular, some of the officials preparing and reviewing the documents at the FBI and intelligence agencies continue to be heavily engaged in matters related to overseas activities,” Durham wrote in the filing, adding that his team is “continuing to press the relevant authorities to produce documents in classified discovery as quickly as possible and on a rolling basis, and no later than the proposed deadline set forth below.”

Danchenko, a Russian analyst, was indicted in November for lying to the FBI as it was investigating the alleged Trump–Russia collusion probe. Namely, he is accused of misleading FBI officials regarding the sources of information that he provided to former UK intelligence agency Christopher Steele as he was interviewed several times by bureau officials in 2017 while the agency was attempting to corroborate allegations in the Steele dossier.

Steele himself was hired by opposition research firm Fusion GPS to look into claims that were made against Trump and members of his campaign in 2016. Fusion GPS was retained by Democrat Party-aligned law firm Perkins Coie, which was working for the Clinton campaign.

Collectively known as the Steele dossier, the former UK spy wrote notes and documents that asserted Trump had ties to Russian intelligence officials to defeat then-candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. However, numerous claims in Steele’s work were false, triggering congressional, criminal, and inspector general investigations. Trump has said the claims are part of a longstanding witch hunt to denigrate his administration and reelection campaign.

Durham’s team alleges Danchenko intentionally misled the FBI when he denied in 2017 that his primary source for the Steele dossier was former Clinton aide Charles Dolan. His trial is scheduled for November 2022.

Last November, Danchenko pleaded not guilty, according to his attorney Mark Schamel. At the time, Schamel said that Danchenko’s work as an analyst is “above reproach.”

“For the past five years, those with an agenda have sought to expose Mr. Danchenko’s identity and tarnish his reputation while undermining U.S. National Security,” Schamel said in a statement. “This latest injustice will not stand.”

But, according to the indictment, Danchenko’s alleged false statements to the bureau “were material to the FBI because … the FBI’s investigation of the Trump Campaign relied” on the dossier to obtain warrants to spy on former Trump campaign aide Carter Page.

“The FBI ultimately devoted substantial resources attempting to investigate and corroborate the allegations contained in” the dossier, including whether Danchenko’s sub-sources were reliable,” the indictment said. Steele’s dossier and other information provided by Danchenko “played a role in the FBI’s investigative decisions and in sworn representations that the FBI made to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court throughout the relevant time period.”

In the Tuesday filing, Durham said that the government has produced about 5,000 classified documents and some 61,000 unclassified documents to Danchenko’s lawyers. Durham said he believes he has turned over most of the classified materials.

The court filing comes as the trial of former Clinton campaign lawyer Michael Sussmann, who had worked for Perkins Coie, is scheduled to start later in May. Sussmann is accused of lying to the FBI, although he’s pleaded not guilty.

The King Report (including swamp stories)

The BLS: Changes to new vehicles source data and methodology
With the release of April 2022 data in May 2022, the CPI program plans to replace the data collected by the BLS for the new vehicles index with transaction data from J.D. Power. This index will continue to include prices for cars and trucks but will no longer include motorcycle prices. Two special relative series that are currently published, new cars and new trucks, will also now be based on J.D. Power data. Publication of the combined new cars and trucks series will be discontinued at the same time. The full list of discontinued series is available online.
    Seasonally adjusted indexes and calculated seasonal adjustment factors will continue to use BLS collected data, and will not take the new data source or methodology into account until the year 2023
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/2017/methodology-changes.htm
 
April CPI: 0.3% m/m (0.2% exp.), 8.3% y/y (8.1% exp.); Core CPI 0.6% m/m (0.4% exp.), 6.2% y/y (6% exp.)  Energy prices -2.7% on a 6.1% drop in gasoline prices.  Airfares soared 18.6% m/m, the most ever.  Food at Home jumped 10.8% y/y, the most since November 1980.  The BLS: The food index increased 9.4 percent (y/y), the largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 1981… https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
 
@business: Here’s where inflation is highest among the major US cities
https://twitter.com/business/status/1524508681492217856
 
The Big Guy quickly blamed the Fed for the unsavory inflation.  Joe boasted that he is fighting inflation by lowering the deficit and Internet fees for low-income Americans.  You can’t make this up!
 
Statement by President Biden on Consumer Price Index in April
As I said yesterday, inflation is a challenge for families across the country and bringing it down is my top economic priority.  This starts with the Federal Reserve, which plays a primary role in fighting inflation in our country… Beyond the Fed, my inflation plan is focused on lowering the costs that families face and lowering the federal deficit. Already this week, my Administration has announced new steps in partnership with the private sector to lower the price of high-speed internet for tens of millions of Americans…the fight against global supply chain issues related to the pandemic and Putin’s price hike will continue every day… (So, inflation is due to Putin, Covid, the Fed, and Republicans.)
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/11/statement-by-president-biden-on-consumer-price-index-in-april/
 
‘It Must Be a Blue Moon’: CNN Calls Out Biden for Claiming He Reduced Federal Deficit
Daniel Dale mocked Biden for trying to take credit for cutting the deficit when massive COVID relief measures simply expired under his watch…
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2022/05/11/cnn-fact-checker-on-biden-reducing-deficit-n2607060
 
The Big Guy has been lying for decades with impunity due to Democrat privilege.  Being used to unchallenged lying, Joe will continue to lie, often egregiously.  This won’t help his approval ratings.
 
@nytimes: Fed Confronts Why It May Have Acted Too Slowly on Inflation
Some Federal Reserve officials have begun to acknowledge that they were too slow to respond to rapid inflation last year, a delay that is forcing them to constrain the economy more abruptly now — and one that could hold lessons for the policy path ahead… Loretta Mester, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said in an interview on Tuesday that different people on the committee “looked at the same data with different lenses, and that’s just the nature of the beast.”…  https://t.co/RzMroyCmbM
 
Top Ten Reasons that the Fed Acted Too Slow on Inflation

  • The Fed is overtly and overly political; too many Fed officials are political hacks
  • Most Fed officials are academics that are bereft of banking, business, or industrial experience
  • The Fed is subservient to Wall Street and indifferent to Main Street
  • The Fed is overly sensitive to the stock market’s wealth effect
  • Numerous Fed officials and staff aggressively speculated in stocks (vested interest in equity rally)
  • Too many Fed officials have the Easy Al Complex – they want to be hailed by the MSM & Street
  • Fed officials spend too much time pontificating and speaking at events
  • Too many key Fed officials pandered to get reappointed, notably Powell
  • The Fed went woke to procure leftist love and political cover instead of doing their primary jobs
  • Per Mester (NYT story): Too many Fed officials ignored data that didn’t confirm their biases

 
Fed Should Hike to 5% or Higher to Curb Inflation, Dudley (ex-NY Fed chief) Says
Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley said the U.S. central bank should stop “sugarcoating” its message on how high interest rates need to go — and how much pain that will cause — to get inflation under control… “If you start to sugar coat it then financial conditions don’t tighten as much and you also run the risk that people will lose confidence in the Federal Reserve.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fed-should-hike-to-5-or-higher-to-curb-inflation-dudley-says-1.1764387
 
With The Big Guy placing the blame for inflation on G. William Powell and his ilk, if Powell had any stuff, he would announce a 75bp rate hike after April PPI is released today.
 
US crude oil production dropped 0.8% last week, the 1st decline since January.  The inventory of distillates plunged to a 17-year low.  Obviously, this is the fault of Covid, Putin, the GOP, and the Fed.
 
@FreightAlley: Major truckstop chains Loves and Pilot warning about imminent diesel shortages in the eastern half of the US. (This could greatly escalate supply chain problems.)
 
Commodities soared early on Wednesday.  Bonds were +1 2/32 at 7:25 ET on expectations of a good April CPI number.  They sank 2.5 points by 9:00 ET. Bonds then rallied 1 23/32 by 9:48 ET.  Even the bond market is showing signs of excess volatility. 
 
ESMs traded like bonds.  They peaked at 7:39 ET (4050.50); then tumbled to 3947.25 near 9:00 ET.  ESMs then soared to 4036.75 at 9:52 ET, an 85-handle surge in only 52 minutes!  Was the rally a manipulation to change negative psychology and narrative; or was it the relief rally we envisioned?
 
ESMs and stocks peaked at 10:46 ET.  ESMs rallied 98 handles from the 9 ET low.  Fangs, led by uber tech, were conspicuously weak during the early equity rally.  The early decline ended at 11:18 with a 44-handle ESM decline.  The rally for the European close began at 11:18 ET and produced a 42.50 ESM rally in 20 minutes.  By 13:05 ET, ESMs had tumbled 82 handles. Nasdaq was -2%; the NY Fang+ Index was -3%.  After a modest rally attempt, ESMs and stocks sank.
 
ESMs hit a daily low of 3926.25 13:58 ET, -114.25 from the daily high.  Someone then juiced ESMs to 3678.00 at 14:25 ET.  Biden was giving an address on food inflation in Kankakee, Illinois.  The Big Guy blamed food inflation on Covid, Russia, cold & wet weather in the Midwest, fertilizer shortages, and “big companies.”  ESMs sank 25 handles in the five minutes before Biden ended his address at 14:30 ET.  It was time for the pre-last hour rally; it ended at 14:45 ET.
 
@RNCResearch: Biden: “the entire state of New Jersey – from New York all the way down to Virginia – the entire state of New Jersey.” New Jersey does not border Virginia.
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1524457790764457985
 
@townhallcom: BIDEN: “Everybody looks at me and says: Have you ever been on a farm? And I remind them that nobody knows. I come from the state of Delaware.” (This is now beyond ridicule; it’s frightening.)  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1524457757528760321
 
By 15:05 ET, ESMs had fallen 39 handles from The Big Guy food inflation address high.  ESMs and stocks eased lower until bottoming at 15:49 ET with a daily low of 3923.75. 
 
At 13:15 ET, WTI Oil hit 106.44; +6.6%; gasoline was +4.6%.  WTI Oil settled at 105.71, +5.96%
 
@RyanDetrick: At least tomorrow is Wednesday. In a very rough year, this day is the only one with a positive return so far. (Chart at link) https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1524215937276203011
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Bonds and ESMs soared after 9 ET (Relief rallies?)
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Energy commodities soared on supply angst
Fangs and techs got killed after the Tepper-induced short covering rally on Tuesday
Major equity indices, ex-DJUA, declined sharply after an early booming rally
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Does the market see a looming recession?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3971.03
Previous session High/Low4049.09; 3928.82
 
Sen. Rick Scott points to latest inflation numbers in call for ‘incoherent and confused’ Biden to resign – “Joe Biden has NO PLAN to fight the inflation crisis he has caused, and families all across America are experiencing this crisis every day …Families are suffering, but Blame-Game Biden refuses to take responsibility… It’s clear that Biden is the problem. He is incoherent and confused and he needs to resign.”… The Republican noted that…he called on Biden to come to Florida for a debate on inflation and the economy. He claimed that the president is “too scared to leave his teleprompter in the White House” to do it… https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/sen-rick-scott-inflation-biden-resign?intcmp=tw_fbn
 
@NorthmanTrader: Who in their right mind buys $1.4 trillion in mortgage-backed securities into a shrinking supply of homes adding to massive price inflation in home prices pricing millions out of the housing market?  What was the reason for this? What was the justification for continuing?
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1524363367523262465
 
FT: BlackRock has warned it will not support most shareholder resolutions on climate this year because they have become too extreme or too prescriptive https://t.co/fg5IHulA7v
 
Today – April PPI will be released at 8:30 ET.  After a worse than expected April CPI, ESMs and USMs initially cratered; then traders poured into USMs and ESMs for a relief rally.  Traders are likely to play this pattern today.  However, the relief rally faltered on Wednesday morning and again in the afternoon.
 
Bulls must be concerned with Wednesday’s decline after at least two concerted rally attempts.  Plus, as noted above, Wednesday has been a rally day, a port of safety for bulls in the equity bear market this year.
 
The persistent selling on Wednesday should unnerve bulls. Major equity indices are threatening to freefall.  Do not try to catch this knife!  ESMs are +10.50 at 20:00 ET. 
 
Expected economic data: April PPI 0.5% m/m, 10.7% y/y, Core PPI 0.6% m/m, 8.9% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 192k, Continuing Claims 1.368m
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4347; 100-day MA: 4446; 150-day MA: 4497; 200-day MA: 4483
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,962; 100-day MA: 34,582; 150-day MA: 34,899; 200-day MA: 34,903
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 5028.85 triggers a buy signal
HourlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4547.45 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4529.25 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4035.27 triggers a buy signal
 
Biden had a meltdown while addressing the electrical workers union in Chicago.  He screamed angrily and stated that Americans had to wait and hour and a half for a box of food under DJT.  He called Trump “The Great Maga King”. (video) https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1524499997089312777
 
Daily Mail: Why is biggest baby formula plant in US STILL shut down after three months? Abbott says plant is safe and was not responsible for bacteria that killed two kids – but FDA refuses to reopen it as parents across US struggle to feed their babies  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10801581/FDA-refuses-say-baby-formula-plant-reopen-despite-companys-claims-facility-safe.html
 
Biden’s Incoming Press Secretary Laughs When Asked Who is Handling Baby Formula Crisis
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2022/05/11/bidens-incoming-press-secretary-laughs-about-baby-formula-shortage-n2607079
 
Fox’s @kellyfphares: House E&C Committee will hold a hearing on baby formula shortages on MAY 25
 
Biden Wanted $33 Billion More For Ukraine. Congress Quickly Raised it to $40 Billion. Who Benefits? – By transferring so much military equipment to Ukraine, the U.S. has depleted its own stockpiles… One need not be a conspiracy theorist to marvel at the great fortune of this industry… to now be gifted with an even greater and more lucrative opportunity to sell their weapons by virtue of the protracted and always-escalating U.S. role in Ukraine. Raytheon, the primary manufacturer of Javelins along with Lockheed, has been particularly fortunate that its large stockpile… is now being ordered in larger-than-ever quantities by its former Board member, now running the Pentagon, for shipment to Ukraine. Their stock prices have bulged nicely since the start of the war… https://t.co/Vl2LqDwSXw
 
GOP @RepGosar: Zelensky made $100 million last year as a public servant somehow. Where do you think a sizeable chunk of that $40 billion is really going?
 
@joekent16jan19: Congress made the time to spend 40 billion to push us closer to WW3 but cannot find the time to address inflation, our border, baby formula shortage or the Biden regime’s plan to surrender our sovereignty to the WHO. We’re in the “loot what you can!” phase of the decline.
 
Babylon Bee: Starving American Babies Disguise Selves as Ukrainian Soldiers in Hopes of Getting $40 Billion in Federal Aid
 
75.8 Percent Oppose Protests (15.9% favor) at Home of SCOTUS Justices https://t.co/xuA2nJh5lo
 
McConnell calls on DOJ to investigate protesters for intimidating judges after SCOTUS opinion leak – McConnell blasted the White House for not taking the demonstrations more seriously
(After days of silence, Mitch finally speaks, probably because of polling.)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mcconnell-doj-investigate-protesters-intimidating-judges-scotus-opinion-leak
 
CNN’s @mkraju: (Dem Sen) Manchin tells us he’s a NO on Dem bill on abortion rights. Says it’s too broad of an expansion. Says he would support a codification of Roe but says this bill goes too far.
 
Manchin will not walk the plank for Chucky Schumer and the Democratic Party’s leftists.
 
RNC Polling: Abortion Is Not the Winning Issue Dems Think It Is – the top issue for 9% of voters…  https://www.dailywire.com/news/rnc-polling-abortion-is-not-the-winning-issue-dems-think-it-is
 
Democrats FAIL to codify abortion rights in Senate https://trib.al/Vcwvz9C
 
@ClayTravis on Bill Gates bragging he had 4 jabs: If you got four measles “vaccine” shots in a year and then still got the measles, would your first thought be to say, “I’m thankful for my four shots,” or would your first thought be, “What the f&$^? Why did I get four shots then? This is the worst vaccine ever.”
     And for the four shotted coronabros, especially those under 65, who inevitably tell us, “Without the vaccine it would have been worse,” you are almost certainly wrong. There is nearly a 100% chance you would have been perfectly fine all along…
 
Video of Oath Keepers Rescuing 16 Police Officers Deflates Jan. 6 Sedition Narrative, Attorneys Say   https://www.zerohedge.com/political/video-oath-keepers-rescuing-16-police-officers-deflates-jan-6-sedition-narrative
 
@JudiciaryGOP: SMOKING GUN: Whistleblowers reveal the FBI has labeled dozens of investigations into parents with a threat tag created by the FBI’s Counterterrorism Division
https://twitter.com/JudiciaryGOP/status/1524531031851909120
 
@seanmdav: When deranged abortion activists broke federal law and showed up at the homes of SCOTUS justices to intimidate and extort them into changing their votes, the FBI did nothing. But parents going to school board meetings? The FBI tagged them as terrorists.
 
The Anatomy of a Wave Election – Grover Cleveland, like Joe Biden, remained both stubborn and stuck ahead of the midterms and in his final two years in office. More than a century later, Democrats are in for another hard lesson.
     On election night 1894, Republicans gained 130 seats—a whopping 35% of the lower chamber, which totaled 357 seats at that time. Democrats lost 125 seats outright, with Republicans picking up third-party seats as well. It remains the largest numerical loss for a political party in history, according to the House historian…The Democrats had woefully handled every crisis that came their way that year. And their use of the press as a weapon against the people had backfired…
    Making Democrats’ problems even worse was a new populist movement—a left-wing faction of the party that was siphoning off the support of farmers and laborers especially. They were furious over Democrats being in bed with big business…It would be 16 years before Democrats won a House majority again…  https://amgreatness.com/2022/05/09/the-anatomy-of-a-wave-election/?s=02

Let us close today with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

See you on FRIDAY

6 comments

  1. Major · · Reply

    OFFER OF HELP for: Baby Formula Shortage Hits Crisis Levels.
    In 1945 my FORMULA, from birth, was canned milk, (Pet or Carnation) water and corn syrup. A pediatrician gave the formula to my mom. She made it up, (right here in the sink) warmed it on our kitchen coal stove, put it in a sterilized glass bottle with a terrible tasting rubber nipple, that had holes too tiny, and fed it to me. GOOGLE it, “ask your doctor”, for this formula, and get some reserve supply. We usually had twenty-four cans in our pantry, in case we got snowed in. Since then, U$ culture has become corporate supply dependent and mockingbird incompetent. Major disappointment.
    PLEASE EDIT AS NECESSARY FOR GENERAL AUDIENCES.

    Like

  2. […] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

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  3. […] by Harvey Organ of Harvey Organ Blog […]

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