JUNE 21/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $2.00 TO $1936.00//SILVER UP 9 CENTS TO $21.77/PLATINUM UP $9.55 TO $942.80//PALLAIUM UP $56.00 TO $1881.45//COVID RELATED STORIES//VACCINE INJURIES//VACCINE IMPACT//MICHAEL EVERY REPORT/UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//INFLATION STORY UPDATES/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1836.30 DOWN $2.00 

SILVER: $21.62 UP 9 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1833/30

SILVER: $21.69

Bitcoin morning price:  $21,252 UP 109

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $21,135  DOWN 8  

Platinum price: closing UP $9.55 to $942.80

Palladium price; closing UP $56.-0  at $1881.45

END

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 EXCHANGE: COMEX EXCHANGE:EXCHANGE: 0

COMEX  0

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan:  0/0

_____________________________________________________________________________________ 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JUNE CONTRACT 0  NOTICE(S) FOR 0 Oz//0  TONNES)

total notices so far: 23,741 contracts for 2,374,100 oz (73.947 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

16 NOTICE(S) FILED 80,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  1787 :  for 8,935,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 9 CENTS

AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 547.166 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GOOD SIZED  515 CONTRACTS TO 143,588   AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR  $0.15 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.15) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS.  

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 7.635 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 16 CONTRACTS OR 80,000 OZ//NEW STANDING:  9,105,000 / //  V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  :1005

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 14 days, total 11,002,  contracts:  55.010 million oz  OR 3.928 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (785 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 55.01 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 55.01 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF  515 DESPITE OUR  $0.15 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// FRIDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 450 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 7.635 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 80,000 QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING: 9,105,000 OZ //  .. WE HAD A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 1 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR .005 MILLION  OZ WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 16  NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  80,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A GOOD SIZED 2768 CONTRACTS  TO 497,815AND FURTHER NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -2768 CONTRACTS.

.

THE  FAIR GAIN IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $11.25//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY / WE MUST HAVE  HAD  SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 69.26 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  115 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING:  75.082TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF   $11.25 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 6070  OI CONTRACTS 18.88 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED  745 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 497,815

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3302, WITH 2559 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 743 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3302 CONTRACTS OR 10.270 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (743) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (2559,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3302 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AND SOME ADDITION TO SPECULATOR SHORTS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE. AT 69.26 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE  JUMP  OF 11,500 OZ//NEW STANDING: 75.082 TONNES /  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS //.,4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :

53,652 CONTRACTS OR 5,365,200 OZ OR 166.88  TONNES 14 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3832 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 166.88 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  166.88/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.70% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 166.88 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 451 CONTRACT OI TO 143,588 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 450 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 450  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 515 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 450 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 1   OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 0.005 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF  $0.15 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

end

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// FRIDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.71 PTS OR 0.26%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 395.68 PTS OR 1.87%    /The Nikkei closed UP 475.09 OR 1.40%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.38%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.6994    /Oil DOWN TO 109.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 115.05 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6994 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6991: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER/

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2559 CONTRACTS TO 497,815 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $11.25  IN GOLD PRICING  FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP (743 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 743 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 AUG :743 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  743 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED  TOTAL OF 6070  CONTRACTS IN THAT 743 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 5327  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS  GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH  OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $11.25.   

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JUNE   (75.082),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 75.082 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $28.95) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF  SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS////  WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN  OF 3302 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (75.082 TONNES)

WE HAD 2768 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3302 CONTRACTS OR 330,200  OZ OR 10.270 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 172,927/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday  147,432  /poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JUNE ’22 COMEX GOLD //JUNE 21

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz163,455/679 oz
Manfra
JPMorgan
5069 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oznil
No of oz served (contracts) today0  notice(s)NIL OZ XXX
No of oz to be served (notices)398 contracts 39,800 oz1.2379 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month23,741 notices
2,374,100 OZ
73.947 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

No dealer withdrawals

0 customer deposits

total deposits: nil oz

2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks  181,056.300 oz

ii) Out of Manfra  2218.419 oz (69 kilobars)

ii) Out of JPM:  160,755.000 oz (5000 kilobars)

total withdrawal: 163,455.679  oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 1/dealer to customer/Brinks:

160,787.151 oz Brinks

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.

For the front month of JUNE we have an  oi of 398 contracts having GAINED 63 contracts

We had 52 notices filed on FRIDAY so we GAINED 115   contracts or an additional 11,500 oz will  stand for gold in this very active month of June 

July has a LOSS OF 93 OI to stand at 1628

August has a GAIN of 1037 contracts UP to 412,817 contracts

We had 0 notice(s) filed today for  NIL oz FOR THE JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 52 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,741) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JUNE 398  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 0 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,413,900 OZ  OR 75.082 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of JUNE. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month:

No of notices filed so far (23,689) x 100 oz+   (398)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0} x 100 oz} which equals 2,401,500 oz standing OR 75.082 TONNES in this   active delivery month of JUNE.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  75.082 TONNES  (A STRONG STANDING FOR A JUNE (  ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  2,419,784.828 oz   75.26 tonnes 

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  33,648,106.364 OZ 

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,300.766.440  OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,347,339.924 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 14,921,555.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  

END

SILVWER/COMEX/JUNE 21

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory12,743.620  oz
CNT
Brinks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil
OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory600.292.100 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)16CONTRACT(S)80,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)18 contracts (90,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)1803 contracts 9,015,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
 this month

And now for the wild silver comex results


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 0 deposit into the customer account

total deposit:  0    oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 169,645 million oz/337.345 million =50.27% of comex 

 Comex withdrawals: 2

i)Brinks 7715.500  oz

ii)CNT 5028.12 oz

total withdrawal  12,743.620         oz

 adjustments:  0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 71.388 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 337.375 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI: 34 HAVING LOST 11 CONTRACTS. 

WE HAD 25 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE GAINED 16 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 80,000 OZ WILL  STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE

DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE

JULY HAD A LOSS OF 2748 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 48,477 CONTRACTS.

AUGUST LOST 8 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 982

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 2325 CONTRACTS UP TO 74,980 CONTRACTS.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 16 for  80,000 oz

Comex volumes:83,386// est. volume today//   good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 58,701 contracts ( fair )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1803 x 5,000 oz = 9,015,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(34) and the number of notices served upon today 16  x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JUNE./2022 contract month: 1803 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (34)  – number of notices served upon today (16) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates 9,105,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.60 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $28.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $6.50/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.55: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $21.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AWITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

MAY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.10: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.95//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

May 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.10/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 25/WITH GOLD UP @$2.70: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.89./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.07 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 1056.18 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $24.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES//

GLD INVENTORY: 1075.54 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547/166 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 739,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./:INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.660 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10.WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 Z FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN $.41 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 558.071 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ///

MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.515 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ

MAY 25/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .922 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.486 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20.WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHDRAWAL OF .785 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 547.166 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Is Fed Chair Powell’s “Soft Landing” Even Possible?

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 01:45 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

After last week’s FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell claimed that a “soft landing” was still possible. In other words, he thinks the central bank will be able to slay red-hot inflation without tipping the economy into a recession.

Is this feasible? Or is it a fairytale?

Economist Daniel Lacalle leans toward fairytale. The word he uses is “impossible.”

After more than a decade of chained stimulus packages and extremely low rates, with trillions of dollars of monetary stimulus fueling elevated asset valuations and incentivizing an enormous leveraged bet on risk, the idea of a controlled explosion or a ‘soft landing” is impossible.”

Why?

Lacalle goes on to explain.

The following was originally published by the Mises Wire. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

In an interview with Marketplace, the Federal Reserve chairman admitted that “a soft landing is really just getting back to 2 percent inflation while keeping the labor market strong. And it’s quite challenging to accomplish that right now.” He went on to say that “nonetheless, we think there are pathways … for us to get there.”

The first problem of a soft landing is the evidence of weak economic data. While the headline unemployment rate appears robust, both the labor participation and employment rate show a different picture, as they have been stagnant for almost a year. Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.0 percent remain each 1.2 percentage points below their February 2020 values, as the April Jobs Report shows. Real wages are down, as inflation completely eats away the nominal wage increase. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, real average hourly earnings decreased 2.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, from April 2021 to April 2022. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.4 percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.

The University of Michigan consumer confidence in early May fell to an eleven-year low of 59.1, from 65.2, deep into recessionary territory. The current conditions index fell to 63.6, from 69.4, but the expectations index plummeted to 56.3, from 62.5.

The second problem of believing in a soft landing is underestimating the chain reaction impact of even allegedly small corrections in markets. With global debt at all-time highs and margin debt in the US alone at $773 billion, expectations of a controlled explosion where markets and the indebted sectors will absorb the rate hikes without significant damage to the economy are simply too optimistic. Margin debt remains more than $170 billion above the 2019 level, which was an all-time high at the time.

However, the biggest problem is that the Federal Reserve wants to curb inflation while at the same time the Federal government is unwilling to reduce spending. Ultimately, inflation is reduced by cutting the amount of broad money in the economy, and if government spending remains the same, the efforts to reduce inflation will only come from obliterating the private sector through higher cost of debt and a collapse in consumption. You know that the economy is in trouble when the fiscal deficit is only reduced to $360 billion in the first seven months of fiscal year 2022 despite record receipts and the tailwind of a strong recovery in GDP. Now, with GDP growth likely to be flat in the first six months but mandatory and discretionary spending still virtually intact, government consumption of monetary reserves is likely to keep core inflation elevated even if oil and gas prices moderate.

The Federal Reserve cannot expect a soft landing when the economy did not even take off, it was bloated with a chain of newly printed stimulus packages that have made the debt soar and created the perverse incentive to monetize all that the Federal government overspends.

The idea of a gradual cooling down of the economy is also negated by the reality of emerging markets and European banks. The relative strength of the US dollar is already creating enormous financial holes in the assets of a financial system that has built the largest carry trade against the dollar in decades. It is almost impossible to calculate the nominal and real losses in pension funds and the negative result of financial institutions in the most aggressively priced assets, from socially responsible investment and technology to infrastructure and private equity. We can see that markets have lost more than $7 trillion in capitalization in the year so far with a very modest move from the Federal Reserve. The impact of these losses is not evident yet in financial institutions, but the write-downs are likely to be significant into the second half of 2022, leading to a credit crunch exacerbated by rate hikes.

Central banks always underestimate how quickly the core capital of a financial institution can dissolve into inexistence. Even the financial system itself is unable to really understand the complexity of the cross-asset impact of a widespread slump in extremely generous valuations throughout all kinds of assets. That is why stress tests always fail. And financial institutions all over the world have abandoned the healthy process of provisioning expecting a lengthy and solid recovery.

The Federal Reserve tries to convince the world that rates will remain negative in real terms for a long time, but borrowing costs globally are surging while the US dollar is strengthening, creating an enormous vacuum effect that can create significant negative effects on the real economy before the Federal Reserve even realizes that the market is weaker than they anticipated, and liquidity is significantly lower than they calculated.

There is no easy solution.

There is no possible painless normalization path. After a massive monetary binge there is no soft hangover. The only thing that the Federal Reserve should have learnt is that the enormous stimulus plans of 2020 created the worst outcome: stubbornly high core inflation with weakening economic growth.

There are only two possibilities:

  1. To truly tackle inflation and risk a financial crisis led by the US dollar vacuum effect or
  2. to forget about inflation, make citizens poorer and maintain the so-called bubble of everything.

None is good but they wanted a decisive and unprecedented response to the pandemic lockdowns and created a decisive and unprecedented global financial risk. They thought money creation was not an issue and now the accumulated risk is so high it is hard to see how to tackle it.

One day someone may finally understand that supply shocks are addressed with supply-side policies, not with demand ones. Now it is too late. Powell will have to choose between the risk of a global financial meltdown or prolonged inflation.

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Strange!! Russian gold is not taboo?? Switzerland imports 3 tons of gold from Russia

(Eddie Spence/Bloomberg/GATA)

Switzerland imports Russian gold for first time since Ukraine war

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-06-21 06:41 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Eddie Spence
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Switzerland imported gold from Russia for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine, showing the industry’s stance toward the nation’s precious metals may be softening. 

More than 3 tons of gold was shipped to Switzerland from Russia in May, according to data from the Swiss Federal Customs Administration. That’s the first shipment between the countries since February.

The shipments represent about 2% of gold imports into the key refining hub last month. It may also mark a change in perception of Russian bullion, which became taboo following the invasion. 

Most refiners swore off accepting new gold from Russia after the London Bullion Market Association removed the country’s own fabricators from its accredited list. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-21/switzerland-imports-russian-gold-for-first-time-since-invasion

end

Larry Summers’ new study finds inflation is as bad as in the 80’s

Robert Lambourne/GATA//Chris Powell

Robert Lambourne: Larry Summers’ new study finds inflation is as bad as in the ’80s

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-06-18 19:53Section: Daily Dispatches

But today’s U.S. debt burden is far worse, and so interest rate increases are far more dangerous.

* * *

By Robert Lambourne
Saturday, June 18, 2022

This month the National Bureau of Economic Research, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, published a study titled “Comparing Past and Present Inflation”:

And:

One of the study’s three authors is former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, a professor at Harvard University, who is well known to GATA followers as the joint author of the obscure economic study published in August 1985, “Gibson’s Paradox and the Gold Standard”:

A reasonably comprehensive summary of how the latter study fit into the government policy scheme to suppress gold prices is available in my report published by GATA six months ago:

https://www.gata.org/node/21603

Extracts from this summary are used here to highlight the principal modern reason for controlling the gold price. This reason was first examined outside official channels by GATA consultant Reginald Howe, who produced a report about it in 2005:

http://goldensextant.com/gibsonsparadox/ 

Gibson’s Paradox was the observation that the price level and nominal interest rates were positively correlated over long periods. In essence Summers’ study on Gibson’s Paradox claims to have found empirical evidence of an inverse relationship between the real price of gold and the real interest rate, a relationship that was examined by the authors over long periods that both included and excluded operation of a gold standard. 

Essentially Summers’ study suggests that lower interest rates are correlated with higher gold prices. This implies that if gold prices are surreptitiously suppressed, with financial markets unaware of the suppression, the market comes to believe that interest rates are sufficiently high, making it much easier for monetary authorities to maintain lower real interest rates. 

In Howe’s study is a chart suggesting that around 1995 the Gibson relationship between gold prices and interest rates broke down and this seems to have been the result of a policy decision by the U.S. monetary authorities. 

Perhaps not coincidentally, Professor Summers was deputy Treasury secretary at the time. 

GATA has collected more evidence that since the 1990s gold prices have been suppressed by way of gold leasing by central banks and the use of gold derivatives, plus the occasional dumping by central banks of physical gold. This period has coincided with a sharp fall in both nominal and real interest rates. In GATA’s view these low rates are the main objective of the gold price suppression policy followed since the 1990s.

The main interest in the new NBER study for monetary metals investors is the conclusion it draws about the present rate of inflation — that present inflation is far closer to the rate reported at the time of the monetary squeeze imposed in 1979 and the early 1980s by the Federal Reserve under Chairman Paul Volcker. 

This NBER study’s conclusion is based on work done to recalculate, using present methods, the Consumer Price Index as it was reported in the 1980s.
 
That the current formula of calculating the CPI produces much lower rates of inflation than the formula used 40 years ago is well understood by many gold investors. For example, the internet site Shadowstats.com details many changes made to the calculation of official consumer price statistics to reduce the level of reported inflation from what earlier formulas would produce:

http://www.shadowstats.com

The recent NBER study suggests that the originally reported core CPI in June 1980, 13.6%, would have been only 9.1% using the current formula for calculating the CPI. This compares to a core CPI of 6.0% reported in May this year. 

Consequently the study concludes “that to return to 2% core CPI today, we thus need disinflation of a similar magnitude as Chairman Volcker achieved.”

In commentary on the new NBER study published this month by The Guardian —

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/15/tough-action-on-interest-rates-in-the-us-but-how-rattled-is-the-us-federal-reserve

— the newspaper’s economics editor, Larry Elliot, wrote:

“The shock treatment administered by Volcker in the early 1980s resulted in official interest rates nudging 20% and the unemployment rate hitting a postwar high of 11%.”

Recent mainstream economic comment has suggested that a much lower level of nominal interest rates would be sufficient to bring the CPI down to 2%. But if the new NBER study is correct, this will not be nearly enough to cut inflation to 2% and interest rates will have to rise much higher. 

Given that federal government debt is now in excess of $30 trillion, increasing short-term nominal rates to around 20% would have a disastrous impact on debt-funding costs. So it seems safe to conclude that policymakers would have to work out some way to devalue the debt, perhaps with some sort of debt jubilee or vast monetization of the debt by the Fed.

The new NBER study seems to be a reluctant recognition that the period of substantial government borrowing at low interest rates is over. As a result, much higher monetary metals prices may be expected with the dollar declining substantially in value. The years of gold price suppression seem likely to lead to the gold price in dollars rising to very high levels.

Regrettably, this suggests that outlawing the ownership of gold remains a distinct possibility.

—-

Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom and a GATA consultant.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer

end

Pam and Russ Martens describes how the crypto and blockchains have been shams all along

(Pam and Russ Martens/WallStreet on Parade/GATA)

Pam and Russ Martens: Crypto and blockchain have been shams all along

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-06-17 11:34Section: Daily Dispatches

By Pam and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Friday, June 17, 2022

Crypto pushers hired themselves Trump’s outgoing SEC Chairman, Jay Clayton; a boatload of celebrities like Matt Damon, LeBron James, Spike Lee, Tom Brady, and Alec Baldwin, among numerous others; and high-priced lobbyists to sway Congress and state legislatures to back off any regulatory push. Crypto even slapped its name on sports stadiums and arenas — similar to Enron and Citigroup just before they blew up from specious business models.

Like any other pump-and-dump scheme, cryptomania worked for a while. Insiders grabbed their windfall profits early and left the unsophisticated with the losses.

Now crypto concerns are hiring themselves the likes of big law firm Akin Gump to explain why investors can’t get access to $11 billion in frozen accounts at Celsius Network.

The warnings have been out there for years now from experts in the legal and scientific communities, that when it comes to crypto, there is no “there” there. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

end

A good read..

Alasdair Macleod/GATA)

Alasdair Macleod: A perfect storm in banking is brewing

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-06-16 11:00Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, June 16, 2022

Now that interest rates are rising with much further to go, the global banking system faces a crisis on a scale like no other in history. Central banks loaded with financial securities acquired through quantitative easing face growing losses, and their balance sheet liabilities are now significantly greater than their assets — a condition that in the private sector is termed bankruptcy. They will need to be recapitalised urgently to retain credibility.

Further, banking regulators have made a prodigious error in their oversight of the commercial banking system by focusing almost solely on bank balance sheet liquidity as the principal determinant of risk exposure. And on the few occasions in the past when they have demanded that banks increase their own capital, it has always been through the creation of preference shares and pseudo-equities to avoid diluting the true shareholders. 

The consequence is that the level of leverage for common equity shareholders in the global systemically important banks has risen to stratospheric levels.

The regulators may be comfortable with their liquidity approach, but they have ignored the periodic certainty of a contraction in bank credit and the consequences for banks’ equity interests. Meanwhile, global systematically important banks have asset-to-common equity ratios often more than 50 times, with some in the eurozone over 70. It is hardly surprising that most G-SIBs are valued in the equity markets at substantial discounts to book value.

G-SIBs have accumulated excessive exposure to financial assets, both on-balance sheet and as loan collateral. With vicious bear markets now evident and further interest rate rises guaranteed by falling purchasing power for currencies, the one thing regulators have not allowed for is now happening. Like a deepening meteorological low, bank credit is contracting into a perfect storm.

Jamie Dimon’s recent warning that his bank (JPMorgan Chase) faces hurricane conditions confirms the timing. Central banks, bankrupt in all but name, will be tasked with rescuing entire commercial banking networks, bankrupted by a collapse in bank credit. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/a-perfect-storm-in-banking-is-brewing?gmrefcode=gata

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

Andrew Maguire says Blackrock defaulted on SLV during Silver Squeeze

While the world has gone on and many have forgotten that the Silver Squeeze of February 2021 ever occurred, some significant questions remain that affect the future path of the silver price.

And now adding to even further intrigue is that Andrew Maguire is reporting that

Blackrock actually defaulted on investors who requested metal during that volatile time in the silver market.

In one of his recent podcasts he made that shocking revelation, and also mentioned one calculation for how much leverage there is in the paper silver market relative to each ounce of physical silver.

So to find out more, as well as the rest of the latest news that will impact tomorrow’s silver price, click to watch this video now!

https://lemetropolecafe.com/pfv.cfm?pfvID=17778

end

5.OTHER COMMODITIES //LITHIUM

END 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.76994

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.6981

HANG SANG CLOSED  UP 395.68 PTS OR 1.87% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 475.89% OR 1.84%

3. Europe stocks  ALL CLOSED  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  104.07/Euro RISES TO 1.0548

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.240/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 135.96/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen FOEN CHINESE YUAN:   UP -//  OFF- SHORE UP

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.907%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.03% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.03%…ALL BLOWING UP!!

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.88//

3j Gold at $1832.50 silver at: 21.65  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP  1  & 1/10      roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 54.58

3m oil into the 109 dollar handle for WTI and  115 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 135.95DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9681– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0212well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.281 UP 4  BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.325  UP 6 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.34

Futures, Cryptos Surge As Dip Buying Turns Into “Nasty Squeeze”

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 08:02 AM

Following a relentless rout that erased nearly $2 trillion in market value from the S&P 500 last week, US equity futures have surged, extending their Monday holiday gains just as predicted on Sunday when we said that a “Nasty Squeeze” was on Deck following last week’s “Second Largest Ever” shorting by hedge funds. Nasdaq 100 futures rose as much as 2.2% before trading 1.7% higher as major US tech and internet stocks advanced, poised to extend Friday’s gains; shares of Tesla and Twitter also rose following billionaire Elon Musk’s comments at the Qatar Economic Forum; S&P 500 futures gained 1.8%; the cash market was closed on Monday for a holiday. Asian and European stocks also advanced as did bitcoin which jumped above $21K after sliding below $18K briefly on Saturday. Meanwhile Treasuries and the US Dollar retreated.

US stocks came under renewed pressure last week, with the S&P plunged into bear market territory amid surging inflation and fears that aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will push the economy into a recession. The S&P 500 is set for an 11% drop in June, poised for the worst month since March 2020, which marked the lows of the pandemic selloff. Sentiment was somewhat boosted by Biden’s Monday comments on the economy in which he said that a recession isn’t “inevitable” (what else will he say) but strategists have warned of more volatility ahead.

“Even if the mid-term investing landscape remains blurry to most market operators at the beginning of this summer season, some investors looking for opportunities to buy shares at a discounted price have been reassured,” said Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades. “The fact central banks are moving quickly towards a super hawkish stance in order to tame inflation is also perceived as good news by some.”

In premarket trading, bank stocks also pushed higher amid a broader rebound in risk assets. In corporate news, HSBC has lost two senior investment bankers in Asia as global banks compete for financial technology talent and dealmaking slows. Meanwhile, the UK’s Payment Systems Regulator will focus a pair of market reviews on the rising card fees charged by Visa and Mastercard. Tech names were also solidly higher; notable movers included Apple +2.4%, Microsoft +2%, Amazon.com +2.6%, Alphabet +2.6%, Meta Platforms +2.1%, Nvidia +3.1% premarket; all six stocks closed higher on Friday, while US markets were closed for a holiday on Monday. Stocks related to cryptocurrencies were also indicating a rally as the price of Bitcoin continues to hold above $20,000 amid a tentative recovery and hopes that prices have bottomed. Meanwhile, Revlon surged as much as 27% in premarket trading, extending Friday’s rally after the cosmetics firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Tesla (TSLA US) and Twitter (TWTR US) shares rose in premarket trading on Tuesday after billionaire Elon Musk said the CEO label at the social media firm was less important than driving the product and that Tesla will cut its salaried workforce by about 10% over  the next three months. Tesla rose 3.1% and Twitter was up 1.2% in premarket trading

  • Revlon shares surge as much as 27% in US premarket trading, extending Friday’s rally after the cosmetics firm filed for bankruptcy.
  • Major US technology and internet stocks advanced in premarket trading on Tuesday, poised to extend Friday’s gains. Apple (AAPL US) +2.4%, Microsoft (MSFT US) +2%, Amazon.com (AMZN US) +2.6%, Alphabet (GOOGL US) +2.6%
  • Spirit (SAVE US) shares jump 13% in US premarket trading, to $24, after JetBlue (JBLU US) raised its offer to $33.50 per share from $31.50 on June 6, the latest move in a multi-billion dollar takeover contest with rival Frontier (ULCC US). Arrival shares jump 8.6% in US premarket trading after the electric- vehicle maker announced that its zero-emission van has achieved EU certification and received European Whole Vehicle Type Approval.
  • US-listed Chinese stocks are mostly higher in premarket trading, tracking a two-day 2.3% rise in the Hang Seng Tech Index.
  • Alibaba (BABA US) +4.6%, Baidu (BIDU US) +3.5%, Pinduoduo (PDD US)+3.3%
  • Stocks related to cryptocurrencies rise on Tuesday in US premarket trading as the price of Bitcoin continues to hold above $20,000 amid a tentative recovery and hopes that prices have bottomed. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +5.6%, Coinbase (COIN US) +4.7%, MicroStrategy (MSTR US) +5%
  • Citi cuts ratings on International Paper Co. and WestRock to neutral from buy, citing increasing questions about demand as supply additions loom. International Paper falls 1.1% in premarket trading, WestRock -1.5%
  • Keep an eye on Maxar shares as Wells Fargo said the stock is its top pick in the burgeoning space sector, initiating it at overweight, Rocket Lab at equal-weight and Virgin Galactic at underweight.
  • Adobe (ADBE US) shares may be in focus today as the stock was downgraded to equal-weight and given Street-low $362 target from $591 by Morgan Stanley, on expectation of a slowing structural growth profile for the computer software company.

After unexpectedly accelerating to a fresh 40-year high in May, US consumer price growth is seen slowing, with a Bloomberg survey of economists predicting 6.5% by the fourth quarter and to 3.5% by the middle of next year. Yet fears are rampant that Federal Reserve policy makers intent on cooling price pressures will go too far and trigger an economic slowdown. Strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned equities may have further to fall to fully price in the risk of recession, reflecting wider skepticism about Tuesday’s rebound.

“We think equities will struggle to rebound sustainably until earnings expectations reset lower and/or central banks turn more dovish, which seems unlikely for now,” said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays Plc.

European stocks also extended their recent recovery, with the region’s benchmark Stoxx 600 Index rising 1%, led by gains in basic resources and chemical companies’ shares. Consumer discretionary, chemicals and autos also trade well. CAC 40 outperforms.

  • Leonardo jumps as much as 9.7% in Milan trading after its DRS unit agreed to buy Israeli radar-maker RADA Electronic in an all-stock transaction.
  • Valneva rises as much as 23% after CEO Franck Grimaud said the company’s Lyme disease vaccine has the potential of becoming a “blockbuster” with sales of more than 1 billion euros.
  • K+S and OCI shares gain after JPMorgan said valuations are “compelling” and fundamentals remain positive. European fertilizer shares had dropped recently because of rising gas prices. OCI rises as much as 4.6%; K+S +6.3%
  • Air Liquide climbs as much as 3.9%, after the French industrial gas company signed a long-term power purchase agreement with Vattenfall.
  • Mithra rises as much as 21% after the pharmaceutical company said it received subscription commitments for 3.87m new shares at an issue price of EU6.07 apiece, representing a 5% discount to last close.
  • Richemont and Swatch advance after Swiss watch exports for the month of May showed strong demand versus the year-earlier period in the US and Japan as well as in European countries such as France and the UK. Luxury peers also trading higher in a wider rebound. Richemont gains as much as 2.8%, Swatch +2.8%, Hermes +3.3%, LVMH +3.7%
  • European apparel retail shares drop after JPMorgan downgrades Asos, About You, Boohoo and Primark owner AB Foods to neutral from overweight, citing the cost of living crisis with cracks emerging in discretionary spending. Asos declines as much as 5.1%, Boohoo -4.8%, About You -4.3%, AB Foods -3.2%
  • Proximus and Telenet slide after a statement by the Belgian telecom regulator showed that new entrant Citymesh partnered with Romanian carrier Digi Communications and acquired spectrum across various bands. Proximus shares fall as much as 7.8%, Telenet -3.9%

Earlier in the session, MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index snapped an eight-day slide to add more than 1% as Asian equities headed for their biggest gain this month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.8%, set to snap an eight-day losing streak, with financial and tech stocks among the biggest contributors to its advance. The US president spoke overnight after a conversation with former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, as the White House and congressional Democrats are in talks on legislation that aims to fight inflation. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong led gains in the region. Australia’s index advanced for the first time in days after central bank chief Philip Lowe signaled he will only raise interest rates by 25-to-50 basis points at the July meeting. Chinese shares edged lower after recent gains.  “It’s a respite, not a rebound,” said Charu Chanana, a market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets. “We are still in a bear market that is facing a double whammy of Fed tightening and building recession fears, and the second-quarter earnings season is likely to be particularly painful for the markets” due to cost pressures, she added.  Valuations for the MSCI Asia gauge have continued to slide toward pandemic lows, with the index down 18% this year. Still, it’s outperforming a measure of global shares, supported by a rally in Chinese equities this month as the country emerges from Covid-triggered lockdowns.

Japanese stocks advanced as investors weighed the impact of the yen’s weakness and the extent of the recent selloff. The Topix Index rose 2% to 1,856.20 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 1.8% to 26,246.31. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 4%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 2,023 rose and 108 fell, while 39 were unchanged. “Stocks that are expected to have an upward revision from the weak yen may be firm,” said Mitsushige Akino, a senior executive officer at Ichiyoshi Asset Management.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.4% to close at 6,523.80, snapping a seven day losing steak. The benchmark was led by gains in banks and miners, with the financials sub-gauge rising the most since March 10.  In early trade, Australia’s central bank Governor Philip Lowe said he didn’t see a recession on the horizon for the nation.  In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 1.1% to 10,701.59

India’s benchmark share index posted its biggest two-day advance since May 30, boosted by a recovery in information technology stocks and as investors looked for bargains after a sharp selloff last week.  The S&P BSE Sensex rose 1.8% to close at 52,532.07 in Mumbai, taking its two-day advance to 2.3%. The NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 1.9%. All of the 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by a measure of oil & gas companies. “Crude prices have corrected by almost 10% from its recent peak, providing some breather to the Indian market,” Motilal Oswal Financial analyst Siddhartha Khemka wrote in a note.   Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 1.6%. All but one of 30 shares in the Sensex index rose. Of the top ten performers on the measure, half were information technology companies, led by Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. that clocked its biggest advance this month. 

In rates, treasuries were cheaper across the curve as trading resumed after Monday’s US holiday; cash USTs bear steepened, but trim losses after cheapening ~5bps at the Asia reopen.  Long-end leads losses with stock futures rising after last week’s rout. US yields are ere cheaper by as much as 6bp at long end, steepening 2s10s by nearly 3bp, 5s30s by nearly 4bp; 10-year, higher by ~5bp at 3.27% lags bund and gilts by 3bp and 4.5bp while Italian bonds outperform Treasuries by 12bp in the sector. Bunds and gilts outperform Treasuries, while Italian bonds extend recent gains after ECB’s Olli Rehn reiterated determination to combat unwarranted spikes in borrowing costs for some of the region’s most vulnerable economies.  That said the ECB has yet to disclose said measures, a move which most agree will lead to selling the news. Gilts bull flatten, 10y yields drop 4bps after stalling near 2.6%. Bunds are comparatively quiet. Shorter-maturity Australian bonds rallied after central bank chief Philip Lowe said interest rates are likely to rise by 50 basis points at most in July. Money markets subsequently scrapped bets he would track the Federal Reserve with a 75 basis-point move. Japanese government bonds were mixed after a five-year note sale that drew the weakest demand in more than two years in the aftermath of wild price swings in futures that have made some traders uneasy about their exposure to cash bonds.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index fell 0.3% as the greenback weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. JPY is the weakest in G-10, plunging to a fresh 24 year low of 136. NOK and SEK outperform. The euro advanced and European bonds rallied, led by the front end even as ECB Governing Council Member Peter Kazimir said negative rates must be history by September. Governing Council member Olli Rehn separetely said that “there has been good reason to expedite the normalization of monetary policy”. The pound extended gains amid broad dollar weakness while UK government bonds inched up. BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill said policy makers would sacrifice growth in order to bring down inflation, saying there’s a risk of prices developing a “self-sustaining momentum.

In commodities, WTI drifted 2.3% higher to trade near $112. Most base metals trade in the green; LME zinc rises 2.8%, outperforming peers. LME aluminum lags, dropping 0.3%. Spot gold is little changed at $1,838/oz.

Bitcoin is bid and above the USD 21k mark, after last week’s slip to a sub-USD 18k low. Elon Musk says he intends to personally support Dogecoin, via BBG TV. Coinbase (COIN) says connectivity issues across Coinbase and Coinbase Pro could cause failed trades and delayed transactions; issue was subsequently resolved.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US existing home sale for May, as well as the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for the same month. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barkin and Mester, the ECB’s Rehn and the BoE’s Pill.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 1.9% to 3,744.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.0% to 411.06
  • MXAP up 1.5% to 158.77
  • MXAPJ up 1.5% to 528.18
  • Nikkei up 1.8% to 26,246.31
  • Topix up 2.0% to 1,856.20
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.9% to 21,559.59
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,306.72
  • Sensex up 2.2% to 52,741.19
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.4% to 6,523.81
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,408.93
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.76%
  • Euro up 0.5% to $1.0567
  • Brent Futures up 1.2% to $115.53/bbl
  • Brent Futures up 1.2% to $115.52/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,835.31
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.61% to 104.06

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • UK rail workers began Britain’s biggest rail strike in three decades after unions rejected a last-minute offer from train companies, bringing services nationwide to a near standstill. Britain’s local authorities say they can’t afford to pay a mandated increase in the legal minimum wage over the next year without a £400 million cash injection from the national government
  • A majority of European businesses are worried about their ability to meet employee demands for higher wages amid the current spike in inflation, according to a regional survey by Intrum AB
  • Companies in Germany, the UK, France, Spain and Italy are the most distressed since August 2020, according to the Weil European Distress Index. The study aggregates data from more than 3,750 listed European firms

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks gained across amid a broad constructive global risk tone despite a lack of fresh macro drivers and the recent holiday closure in the US, with Bitcoin and Chinese commodity prices also stabilising after the recent tumultuous price action. ASX 200 was led higher by the energy sector and after RBA’s Lowe effectively ruled out a 75bps hike next month. Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 26,000 level amid a predominantly weaker currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were positive with sentiment in Hong Kong underpinned by news the SAR is to propose a quarantine-free business travel corridor with mainland China, while mainland bourses lagged with the US ban on imports from Xinjiang taking effect from today. Japan’s PM Kishida says rapid JPY weakening is a source of concern, must closely watch FX moves and consider monetary policy and FX measures separately.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese Developer Accepts Wheat, Garlic as Payment to Woo Buyers
  • China Junk Bond Selloff in New Phase With Record Fosun Rout
  • Gold Steady as Traders Weigh Central Bank Plans to Hike Rates
  • Australian Tesla-Supplier Eyes First Lithium Exports
  • Over- Optimism Among China Steel-Makers Behind Iron Ore’s Plunge

European bourses are firmer and building on Monday’s upside, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%; thus far, newsflow has largely focused on familiar themes. Additionally, participants are awaiting the return of the US after Monday’s market holiday. Currently, ES +1.7% with the region incrementally outperforming European peers. Elon Musk says there a still a few unresolved matters with Twitter (TWTR) including the number of spam users, via BBG TV; still awaiting a resolution, very significant. Adds, they are reducing the salaried workforce of Tesla (TSLA) by circa. 10% over the next three-months.

Top European News

  • French President Macron will invite all parties able to form a group in the new parliament for talks on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to Reuters.
  • BDI revises down 2022 German GDP forecasts: 1.5% (prev. 3.5%); return to pre-COVID level expected at end-2022 at the earliest

Central Banks

  • ECB’s Lane said very high inflation means there is a risk inflation psychology could take hold and said the larger increment for rate increase in September does not represent a red alert assessment of inflation. Lane also commented that he doesn’t see a situation where they would need to revisit the plan for a July decision and there is no preview beyond September of what will be the appropriate pace of tightening, according to Reuters.
  • ECB’s Villeroy said the new instrument should be available as much as necessary to make the no-limit commitment to protect the Euro very clear and the more credible such an instrument is, the less it may have to be used in practice. Villeroy added the new instrument will have rules but there will be elements of judgement also and said they would not necessarily need to hold purchases of government or private sector securities to maturity, according to Reuters.
  • ECB’s Rehn says EZ inflation pressured are broader and stronger; very likely the September move is more than 25bp in magnitude.
  • BoE’s Pill says if there is evidence of persistent price pressures, the MPC is certainly prepared to act, expects further tightening in the coming months, need to consider the exchange rate when assessing inflationary pressures. Worries that using monetary policy to stabilise the FX rate in the short-term would be a distraction from the BoE’s goals.
  • HKMA purchases HKD 9.6bln from the market, as the HKD hits the weak-end of the trading range.

FX

  • Euro firm as risk revival continues and ECB’s Rehn says 50bp hike in September is highly probable, EUR/USD eyeing 1.0600 after breaching 1.0550, but could be capped by 1bln option expiry interest between 1.0575-85.
  • Sterling rebounds ahead of CBI industrial trends and after BoE chief economist Pill underlines willingness to act if price pressures prove persistent; Pound probes 1.2300 vs Dollar as DXY slips further from recent peaks through 104.000.
  • Loonie and Nokkie boosted by firmer crude prices, as former awaits Canadian retail sales data; USD/CAD close to 1.2900 vs circa 1.3078 double top, EUR/NOK sub-10.4000 within 104.4200+/10.3400 range.
  • Kiwi and Aussie underpinned by improvement in risk appetite, but hampered as NZ consumer sentiment slides to record low and RBA Governor Lowe pushes back on the amount of 2022 tightening priced in at present; NZD/USD hovers above 0.6350 and AUD/USD shy of 0.7000.
  • Franc and Yen remain divergent with SNB and BoJ policy paths, latter largely ignoring latest verbal intervention; USD/CHF pivots 0.9650 and USD/JPY back above 135.00.
  • Israel PM Bennett and Foreign Minister Lapid agreed on dissolving the Knesset and going for an early election, while the vote will take place next week and Lapid will become PM once the vote passes, according to Walla News.

Fixed Income

  • Debt divergent and erratic awaiting the return of US cash markets from long holiday weekend.
  • Bunds hold within 143.05-144.01 range and Gilts between 111.11-68 parameters.
  • Treasury futures retreat and curve flits from marginal flattening to steepening ahead of US existing home sales and more Fed speak via Mester and Barkin

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent are bid amid broader risk sentiment with newsflow focusing on familiar themes primarily around the reduction in Russia’s gas supply to Europe.
  • Thus far, Brent has tested but failed to connivingly breach the USD 116.00/bbl mark ahead of touted USD 116.37/bbl resistance.
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen said she does not see resuming the Keystone XL oil pipeline as a short-term measure that can address high oil prices, while she added it would take years to have an impact. Yellen also commented that evidence is mixed on the level of pass-through from a gasoline tax holiday to lower prices and said that an exception or ban on insurance for certain Russian oil shipments would effectively provide a price cap on oil, according to Reuters.
  • Brazilian Economy Minister Guedes said Brazil is part of the western energy security, particularly for Europe, while he added that privatising and moving Petrobras to Novo Mercado would increase its market cap from BRL 450bln to BRL 750bln. Guedes added that they will conduct new measures again if the war in Ukraine is escalating, according to Reuters.
  • PetroEcuador may have to stop exports if protests continue and it declared a force majeure to avoid contract penalties, according to Reuters.
  • Vitol CEO says markets are faced with underinvestment and falling production capacity for crude and there is a relatively tight refining situation, via Reuters; if China exports some more products, the tightness felt today won’t be felt.
  • Denmark’s energy agency declared an ‘early warning’ stage of gas supply preparedness, according to Reuters.
  • German regulator says they are not in a hurry to declare the highest gas emergency level yet, via Reuters citing BR; however, Sweden declares an “early warning” stage of gas supply preparedness for Western and Southern parts of the nation.
  • Codelco’s union presidents ratified the start of a national strike beginning on Wednesday, according to Reuters; an update which, alongside broader risk, is supporting LME Copper.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: May Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.47, prior 0.47
  • 10:00: May Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -3.7%, prior -2.4%
  • 10:00: May Home Resales with Condos, est. 5.4m, prior 5.61m

Central Banks

  • 11:00: Fed’s Barkin Interviewed During NABE Event
  • 12:00: Fed’s Mester Speaks at Women in Leadership Event
  • 15:30: Fed’s Barkin Speaks in Richmond

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’ll be publishing my latest monthly chartbook later today so keep an eye out for it. It will include the slides for last week’s webinar on the default study “The end of the ultra-low default world”. See here for the webinar replay and here for the original default study.

Welcome to the longest day of the year although most in markets will already say we’ve had numerous of those already so far this year. Actually if you’re outside of London, trying to get in it could be a very, very long day as the UK is today gripped by the first of three alternate day rail strikes. There is a tube strike today thrown in for good measure. It does seem industrial relations with the government are on a knife edge across the UK as at least 3 million workers across different professions are considering industrial action at the moment over pay and working conditions. So this could become a much bigger story if tensions are not eased. With inflation this high it’s not easy to see how they can be without big pay rises being offered.

However on this day of wall to wall sun (sorry to the Southern Hemisphere readers), there has been a little more light than dark in markets over the last 24 hours after what was the worst week for global equities since March 2020. The next major event(s) to look forward to are Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimonies from tomorrow. To be honest though, its been a fairly quiet start to the week given the US holiday yesterday, with the biggest news instead being a fresh rise in European sovereign bond yields after President Lagarde reiterated the ECB’s intentions to start hiking next month, and also shone a bit more light on their plans to deal with any potential fragmentation.

We’ll start with those remarks from Lagarde, who appeared in a hearing at the European Parliament yesterday and spoke strongly against any potential fragmentation in the Euro Area. Indeed, she said that “we need to be absolutely certain” that monetary policy was being transmitted to the different Euro Area countries and went as far to say that it was “right at the core of the mandate”, whilst adding “anybody who doubts that determination will be making a big mistake”. So not quite “whatever it takes” but along the same lines.

Given the ECB has promised to deal with any fragmentation, that should make life easier for them when it comes to raising rates, and European sovereign bond yields responded accordingly yesterday. Looking at the specific moves, yields on 10yr bunds (+9.0bps), OATs (+11.8bps) and BTPs (+12.3bps) all moved noticeably higher, although by the standards of last week that seemed quite modest given that 10yr bund yields had seen absolute moves of 11bps in either direction on 3 out of 5 days last week.

When it came to bonds though, it was UK gilts who were one of the biggest underperformers yesterday after we heard from one of the more hawkish members of the Bank of England’s MPC. Catherine Mann (who was in the minority that favoured of a 50bps move last week) said in a speech that “the incoming data on inflation show increasingly domestic embeddedness, persistence, and momentum”. Furthermore, she also warned about the risk of embedded domestic inflation being “further boosted by inflation imported via a Sterling depreciation”. Against that backdrop, 10yr gilt yields rose by +10.6bps to close above 2.6% for the first time since 2014, whilst overnight index swaps are continuing to price in a more aggressive response from the BoE after the next meeting, with 50bp moves priced in for each of the next 3 meetings, which would be the fastest pace of hikes since they gained operational independence in 1997.

In spite of the sovereign bond selloff, equities put in a much better performance yesterday, with the STOXX 600 (+0.91%) seeing a broad-based advance that was supported by all the main sector groups. Other indices on the continent also moved higher, including the FTSE 100 (+1.50%), the DAX (+1.06%) and the FTSE MIB (+0.99%). The worst performer on a relative basis was France’s CAC 40 (+0.64%), which struggled following the news that President Macron had lost his parliamentary majority, which will make passing his agenda much more difficult in the coming years. See our economists’ piece on the topic here.

With the US holiday we only had futures to look at, but those on the S&P 500 had moved around +1% higher by the time of the European close. They are +1.62% higher this morning with the NASDAQ 100 futures (+1.71%) also meaningfully higher. Meanwhile, Fed funds futures were again moving in the direction of pricing in a more aggressive path of rate hikes, with the implied rate by the December meeting up +7.18bps to 3.625%, albeit still beneath their closing peak of 3.72% just before the Fed meeting, which meant that Treasury futures were also pointing to fresh declines yesterday as well.

Asian equity markets are relatively buoyant this morning with the Nikkei (+1.76%) leading the pack followed by the Hang Seng (+1.42%). In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (+0.18%) and CSI (+0.12%) are also trading in positive territory whilst the Kospi (+1.03%) is sharply higher in early trade.

Elsewhere, the meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released this morning indicated that the central bank is leaning towards more monetary policy tightening over the coming months. The minutes also revealed that inflation was expected to increase to 7% by the end of the year due to pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, before coming back towards the 2-3% inflation range in 2023. Meanwhile, the RBA Governor Philip highlighted that interest rates were still “very low” but watered-down expectations of 75bps rate hikes thus signaling a 25 or 50bps move at the July meeting.

On the FX side, the Aussie Dollar did witness a sharp dip during the RBA Governor’s Q&A session but is reversing losses, trading +0.35% at 0.697 per US dollar, as I type. Elsewhere the Japanese yen has remained under pressure at 135.03 per dollar, not far off a 24-year low of 135.58 hit early last week. Separately, oil prices are higher this morning with Brent futures (+1.04%) at $115.32/bbl and WTI futures increasing +1.79% to $111.52/bbl.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US existing home sale for May, as well as the Chicago Fed’s national activity index for the same month. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barkin and Mester, the ECB’s Rehn and the BoE’s Pill.

  SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.71 PTS OR 0.26%   //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 395.68 PTS OR 1.87%    /The Nikkei closed UP 475.09 OR 1.40%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.38%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.6994    /Oil DOWN TO 109.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 115.05 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6994 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6991: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER  

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B  JAPAN

Japan spends a record 81 billion dollars in order to avert collapse.  However the 10 trillion dollar Japanese bond market is completely broken

(zerohedge)

Bank of Japan Spends A Record $81 Billion To Avert Collapse, But $10 Trillion JGB Market Is Now Completely Broken

MONDAY, JUN 20, 2022 – 10:03 PM

Exactly one week ago, when quantifying the dizzying cost of the BOJ’s defense of its Yield Curve Control policy (at the expense of the collapsing yen), Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos calculated that the “the BOJ printer is on overdrive”, and if the current pace of buying persists, the bank will have bought approximately 10 trillion yen in June. To put that number in context, it is roughly equivalent to the Fed doing more than $300bn of QE per month when adjusting for GDP.

Somewhat redundantly, the DB strategist said that this is a “truly extreme” level of money printing given that every other central bank in the world is tightening policy and is one of the reasons why he has been bearish on the yen. And as so many have argued, “currency intervention in this environment is simply not credible given it is the BoJ itself that is the cause of yen weakness.”

More broadly, Saravelos echoes what we said in our preview of the end of MMT, writing that he worries that “the currency and Japanese financial markets are in the process of losing any sort of fundamental-based valuation anchor” and, as a result, “we will soon enter a phase where dramatic and unpredictable non-linearities in Japanese financial markets would kick in.”

He was proven right the very next day, when not an insigificant part of Japan’s bond market imploded as the central bank battles to keep control of its policy goals as some of the largest hedge funds in the world pile on billions in bets that the BOJ is about to lose control, in a repeat of Soros’ dramatic crusade against the BOE (which the billionaire democrat ended up winning, and affording him the wealth to be the US government’s shadow puppetmaster to this day).

As Bloomberg explained, a small tweak to the Bank of Japan’s bond purchase plan this week blew up an arbitrage strategy popular with overseas investors known as the basis trade (the same basis trade which blew up in 2019 in the US cash/futures market sparking the historic repo crash and the Fed’s return to QE). It also exacerbated a supply shortage of government bonds that has ramped up pressure on domestic financial institutions, leading them to turn to the BOJ for help to relieve the strain.

One week ago we described how after four straight days of declines in Japanese bond futures, the central bank announced unlimited purchases of so-called cheapest-to-deliver 10-year notes for Thursday and Friday – securities closest linked to the contracts. That sent the spread between the futures and the bonds underlying them soaring to the widest since 2014 – a massive shock for traders with positions between the two.

As a result, 10Y JGB futs crashed by the most since 2013 as traders bet that the BOJ will be forced to abandon its pledge to cap yields at 0.25%…

… while the gap between JGB futs and underlying cash bonds soared the most on record.

The chart below is another way of visualizing this historic divergence between futs and cash JGBs, clearly signaling the market’s belief that the BoJ will fold on its unlimited bond buying curve control program.

Needless to say, arbs who were short the cheapest-to-deliver bonds and long the futures contracts suddenly faced steep losses and found it impossible to close their positions (remarkably all this was happening in the world’s 2nd largest bond markets, amounting to some 1.24 quadrillion yen or about $10 trillion, yet all everyone can talk about is crypto). As Bloomberg notes, the BOJ had effectively cornered the market in the cheapest-to-deliver bonds making it almost impossible for others to purchase them, while the futures price slumped to the brink of a trading halt as those caught out rushed to close.

By late day Wednesday, a Bloomberg estimate of the cost to close this so-called short basis trade widened to about minus 7% from minus 0.4% the day before. It remained at distressed levels Friday — around minus 2% — suggesting some investors were still stuck on the wrong side of the trade.

“The selloff in futures has killed arbitrage opportunities,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities. “This situation will eventually end up in a total stalemate in markets.”

By stalemate, he means “crash.”

Speculative attacks on Japanese bonds have mounted as a growing number of funds – most notably the giant, $127 billion BlueBay – bet the BOJ will cave in to pressure and change its increasingly isolated super-easy monetary policy. The central bank confounded its critics Friday, holding firm with its rock-bottom interest rates and continuing with its fixed-rate bond purchase plan.

Benchmark bond yields fell further below the 0.25% ceiling, after the central bank announced a fixed-rate purchase operation for the afternoon.

But the bigger problem for the BOJ is that those purchases, which preserving the BOJ’s YCC “credibility” (for now) are also sucking up what little liquidity is available in the JGB market, piling pressure on local institutions, something which can be seen in the usage of the BOJ’s lending program — another gauge of stress in the market.

Yes: on one hand the BOJ continues to buy billions in JGBs via QE, but on the other it is forced to lend what it has bought back into the market to avoid a terminal paralysis of what was once the second deepest bond market.

The amount of bonds the central bank has lent “temporarily” to financial institutions to relieve supply tightness has hit a record, Bloomberg data show. The BOJ lent 3.2 trillion yen ($23.9 billion) of JGBs through its Securities Lending Facility on Thursday, well above the 2.3 trillion yen lent at the peak of coronavirus fears in March 2020.

BOJ Governor Kuroda told reporters on Friday that the BOJ will take appropriate measures to address any decline in bond market liquidity. But he also said he isn’t thinking about raising the 10-year yield ceiling from 0.25%, which means that the liquidity situation will only get worse in the coming days.

“Market functioning and liquidity have deteriorated sharply with the BOJ’s massive JGB purchases,” Barclays strategist Shinji Ebihara wrote in a note.

Meanwhile, and going back to the original point brought up by DB’s Saravelos above that the BOJ is spending monstrous amounts of yen just to keep the JGB market from crashing, as traders countdown to the complete Ice-9ing of the Japanese bond market (which in recent months has seen its share of days without a single trade crossingBloomberg has calculated how much it cost the BOJ to preserve calm after last week’s catastrophic slide in futures, and the answer is some 10.9 trillion yen ($81 billion) of government bond purchases last week, the most on record. By way of comparison, European Central Bank asset purchases under its so-called APP program averaged about $27 billion – per month – this year through May. But fear not, once Europe’s dominoes start falling and peripheral yields explode to all time highs, Lagarde’s hedge fund will make BOJ’s purchases seems like a walk in the park by comparison.

And while every day could be the BOJ’s last, market watchers see the temporary calm as an eye in the proverbial hurricane, as the BOJ continues to defy an intensifying global wave of central bank tightening and concentrated market pressure on the yen and government bonds. Treasuries remain a key driver as does the direction of the dollar-yen, hovering around a 24-year low.

“If the yen weakens further as a sell-off in foreign bonds resumes, it would not be surprising were the yen rates market to start testing the BOJ again,” wrote Citigroup Inc. strategist Tomohisa Fujiki in a note.

One place where the pressure is building up, is in implied volatility for 10-year JGBs, which however eased modestly after rising to the highest since the global financial crisis in 2008 on Friday. The BOJ said Friday its bond buying will continue for an extended period of time.

“Since the JGB market volatility has been initiated by the global reaction to US CPI and the Federal Reserve’s tightening, the structure keeping it unstable remains quite intact,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities. “Even as the BOJ steps up efforts to defend its turf, the structure behind the challenges remain the same.”

Speculative attacks on Japan’s bond market have mounted amid bets the BOJ will cave in to pressure and tweak its increasingly isolated easy monetary policy — something it reconfirmed at its policy decision Friday. But the impact of the central bank’s bond purchases have squeezed some corners of the futures markets, putting at least some arbitrage traders under pressure.

And yet, the most ominous sign yet for the BOJ is the recent quiet appointment of a Japanese government bond expert with experience of the market turmoil of the late 1990s to a key role in the Finance Ministry, which caught the attention of market watchers in Tokyo. Michio Saito — dubbed “Mr. JGB” — will head up a division that covers the bond market and may strengthen lines of communication with the central bank, according to some strategists.

For the BOJ to seek a smooth exit from massive bond purchases, close cooperation with the finance ministry is essential, so the appointment of an experienced person in charge is very significant, Iwashita said. This “is positive news for the market,” she said.

Most disagree, however, although they know better than to take the BOJ head on: after all, shorting JGBs has been a widowmaker trade for decades. Still, there is a sense of ominous capitulation vis-a-vis the Japanese bond market in recent days, almost as if we are now well past the point of no return and the final collapse of not just the JGB market, but the entire fraudulent MMT paradig, is just days if not hours away. Indeed, as Rabobank’s Michael Every put it, with every attempt to preserve the status quo, the BOJ is pulling even further on a monetary elastic band that will hurt far more when it does inevitably come snapping back the other way, and concludes that when the BOJ’s YCC peg eventually breaks, markets are going to get hit hard: “Japan is currently a source of ultra-cheap financing in a world of rising rates, and with a currency that is only going one way – down. If both reverse at once,… ouch!”

3c CHINA

CHINA/USA

The legal status of the Taiwan strait becomes the focus after Beijing rejects it is international waters.

(zerohedge)

China, US Escalate Over Legal Status Of Taiwan Strait After Beijing Rejects It As “International Waters”

MONDAY, JUN 20, 2022 – 05:00 PM

The White House earlier this month reaffirmed its stance that the Taiwan Strait constitutes “international waters” following the latest US warship sail-through, which had put China’s PLA Eastern Theatre Command on high alert. As Reuters reported last Tuesday, “The United States on Tuesday backed Taiwan’s assertion that the strait separating the island from China is an international waterway, a further rebuff to Beijing’s claim to exercise sovereignty over the strategic passage.”

This prompted Beijing to issue its own statement and definition, hitting back that the strait is not “international waters” – thus placing limits on the movements of foreign military vessels in the waters – and further reasserting that it constitutes the mainland’s exclusive economic zone.The Strait of Taiwan, Gallo Images via Getty

Bloomberg reports Monday that Biden administration officials are “increasingly concerned the stance could result in more frequent challenges at sea for the democratically governed island, according to people familiar with the matter.”

And further, “Chinese officials have made such remarks repeatedly in meetings with US counterparts in recent months, Bloomberg reported last week.” The report underscores that this marks an escalation, given the international legal status of the passageway wasn’t previously center of debate as it is now:

While China regularly protests US military moves in the Taiwan Strait, the legal status of the waters previously wasn’t a regular talking point in meetings with American officials.

Washington is alarmed over the timing, not only given the ongoing fallout from the Russian war in Ukraine, which Beijing has refused to outright condemn, but especially because a week ago China’s President Xi Jinping has signed an order which fundamentally expands the conditions under which People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops can be deployed.

The order introduced legal framework to deploy troops in “non-war military actions” which took effect Wednesday, according to state media. It could have significant repercussions for tensions with the US and Washington allies like Australia or Japan in places like the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, given the order loosens the conditions under which it’s possible to initiate “military operations other than war” which involves operations that do not explicitly involve direct conflict or combat.

Depending on how far China wants to press its definition, the most extreme scenario could involve the PLA military moving to close the strait

This further means that Xi is hinting he could use the PLA military to begin enforcing the newly articulated position that the Taiwan Strait is not “international waters” – however vague the Chinese position may remain.

end

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

GERMANY

Germany rations gas amid the Russian cuts.  They now mandate a return to coal for electricity production

(zerohedge)

Germany Rations Gas Amid Russian Cuts, Mandates Return To Coal For Electricity Production

MONDAY, JUN 20, 2022 – 06:55 AM

German Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck  said Sunday that the country will limit the use of natural gas for electricity production amid concerns about possible shortages caused by a cut in supplies from Russia.

As a member of the environmentalist Green Party, Habeck pushed through legislation in April to raise Germany’s energy target to 80% renewables. He is also an opponent of nuclear energy.

Habeck said that Germany will try to compensate for the move by increasing the burning of coal, a more polluting fossil fuel.

 “That’s bitter, but it’s simply necessary in this situation to lower gas usage,”

The decision comes just days after Russian gas company Gazprom announced that it was sharply reducing supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for technical reasons, but which Habeck said appeared to be politically motivated.

“It’s obvious that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s strategy is to unsettle us by driving up the price and dividing us,” Habeck said.

“We won’t let that happen.”

Habeck’s Press Release on Reducing Natural Gas Consumption.

Gas Reduction in Electricity Sector

“The situation on the gas market has deteriorated in recent days. The missing quantities can still be replaced, and the gas storage tanks are still being filled, albeit at high prices. Security of supply is currently guaranteed. But the situation is serious. We are therefore further strengthening precautions and taking additional measures to reduce gas consumption. This means that gas consumption must continue to fall, so more gas must be stored in storage, otherwise things will get really tight in winter. We will now take the next steps. For months we have been in the process of sharpening tools, creating new ones and removing existing obstacles. We are accelerating the expansion of renewable energies in an unprecedented way, we are pushing through the storage of gas and driving the expansion of LNG terminals and energy efficiency measures. The urgency of these tasks determines our ongoing work. Now we’re going to pull out and use another set of tools. We will reduce gas consumption in the electricity sector and in industry and force storage tanks to be filled. Depending on the situation, we will take further measures.”

“With the law, we are setting up a gas replacement reserve on demand. And I can already say: We will call off the gas replacement reserve as soon as the law comes into force. That means, to be honest, more coal-fired power plants for a transitional period. That’s bitter, but in this situation it’s almost necessary to reduce gas consumption. We must and we will do everything we can to store as much gas as possible in summer and autumn. The gas storage tanks must be full in winter. That has top priority,” said Habeck.

Rapid Expansion of LNG Infrastructure

Germany has not yet had a port where liquid gas can be landed. However, this is necessary in order to strengthen the gas supply from non-Russian sources and thus become independent of Russian imports. The federal government is therefore pushing ahead with the construction of so-called floating LNG terminals. First, it has secured four special ships, so-called FSRU , on which liquid gas is converted back into gas. Secondly, with on LNG Acceleration Act, it has created the legal prerequisites to accelerate the construction of the necessary connections on land so that two of the four FSRU ships can go into operation in winter and thus LNG can be fed into the German gas supply network. Everyone involved is working hard on this.

As MishTalk’s Mike Shedlock notesthose are two of seven points of Habeck’s plan.

He notes storage tanks are only 56% full. 

Not to worry, that’s ahead of a year ago. But a year ago Germany was getting 100% of the gas it wanted from Russia. Now it’s only getting 40% of the gas it was getting a year ago.

That means it will take 2.5 times as long to fill up the tanks, thus the need to ration natural gas and use coal.

[ZH: Maybe Trump was right after all]

Transitional to What and When?

Well, don’t worry. This is only temporary. 

Heaven only knows until when. Meanwhile, Germany is rushing to build floating LNG terminals. 

That gas will come from where? 

20% of US LNG Capacity Went Offline on June 8

On June 8, an explosion at the Freeport LNG facility in Texas knocked out 20% of US LNG production.

The outage sent US gas futures down 18% from the price a day before the fire.  European gas prices shot up by over 60%.

Since then, US prices have fallen nearly 60 cents to $6.71.

[ZH: The chart below compares ‘oil barrel equivalent’ levels for EU and US NatGas relative to WTI Crude]

Spotlight on Sanctions

No Parts, No Gas

Global Natural Gas Flow

Yet again, I keep returning to the following picture. 

Global map from Nations Online Project, annotations by Mish

Instead of getting natural gas from hundreds of miles away over existing pipelines we compress natural gas in the US then ship it 4,700 miles away Europe.

Meanwhile, Russia fearing eventual European cutoff is building new pipelines to China.

De-globalization is underway. A key ramification is higher inflation.

For further discussion, please see De-Globalization: New Supply Chains Are Inefficient and Will Drive Up Inflation

We have economic illiterates running the country and running the Fed. The average Joe is getting killed.

Dear President Biden, the above charts speak for themselves. If you want to lower inflation, stop the sanctions.

*  *  *

Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

END

UK

Uk drivers are now bracing for big traffic increases amid the largest rail strike inmoern history in England.

(zerohedge)

UK Drivers Brace For “Big Traffic Increases” Amid “Largest Rail Strike In Modern History” 

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 02:45 AM

Britain is on the cusp of a massive strike that begins Tuesday and will paralyze at least half of the country’s railway network, resulting in what could be a surge in traffic as train passengers switch to road transportation.

The Rail, Maritime, and Transport Workers union (RMT) will strike tomorrow, Thursday, and Sunday in what union bosses call the “biggest rail strike in modern history.” The Independent reports last-ditch talks between the rail union and Network Rail, and 13 train operators failed to resolve pay, jobs, and conditions disputes. As many as 40,000 unionized rail workers will participate in the walkout

Chief Treasury Secretary Simon Clarke told Sky News on Monday that travelers will suffer “misery” this week: 

“I think the public do this week need to be aware there will be very substantial disruption and it is therefore sensible to make preparations for that,” Clarke said.

Motoring group AA forecasted increased highway traffic as passengers switched to road transportation. AA said Scotland, Wales, and major roadways across the UK will see “a big increase in traffic.” 

RAC, another motoring group, said the strike would result in more road usage: 

Major city routes as well as those serving the home counties are likely to see some of the biggest increases in traffic volumes as, even if rail lines are still open, there will be significantly fewer trains running.

“With strikes like these planned it’s perhaps little wonder that so many drivers across the country are dependent on their vehicles. Traffic jams aside, using a car often turns out to be the most practical and reliable way of getting around,” RAC spokesman Rod Dennis said. 

Network Rail posted a map of the affected service areas that span the country. 

“Ultimately, this is a matter between the employers—the train operating companies and Network Rail—and the trade unions, and the government doesn’t sit directly as a part of those talks for a very good reason—that we don’t intervene in a specific process between an employer and the unions representing employees, but we are there to provide the support and enabling framework for those talks to succeed,” the treasury minister said. 

Clarke said the rail union had requested a 7% pay boost to keep up with the highest inflation in four decadesAll of which probably helps explain why the UK’s Misery Index is at its highest since 1992…

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps warned the strike would “punish” millions of “innocent people” and is “a huge act of self-harm” that will “jeopardize the future of the railway itself.” 

end

The Netherlands

Netherlands lifts restrictions on coal fired power stations amid a drop in Russian gas supplies

(zerohedge)

Netherlands Follows Germany, Lifts Restrictions On Coal-Fired Power Stations Amid Drop In Russian Gas Supplies

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 09:05 AM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

The Netherlands is following in the footsteps of neighboring Germany and lifting a cap on production by coal-fired power stations in an effort to prevent a winter energy crisis amid a drop in gas supplies from Russia.

“Because the risk of gas shortages has increased, the cabinet has decided today to withdraw the production limitation for coal-fired power stations for 2022 to 2024 with immediate effect,” climate and energy minister Rob Jetten said in a statement announcing the move on Monday.

“This means that the coal-fired power stations are allowed to produce at full capacity again so that less gas is needed for the production of electricity by gas-fired power stations. This reduces the risk of gas shortages and makes it easier to fill the gas storage facilities in the Netherlands and Europe.”

The Netherlands is in the first phase of a gas crisis, according to Jetten, which has prompted the government to initiate its Gas Protection and Recovery Plan.

Netherlands Minister for Climate and Energy Rob Jetten after the weekly Council of Ministers at the Binnenhof in The Hague on April 22, 2022. (Bart Maat/ANP/AFP via Getty Images)

Jetten said the overall aim of removing the restrictions on coal-fired power stations is to fill gas storage facilities across the Netherlands with more than had previously been agreed by Europe to ensure that plenty of gas is saved ahead of the winter.

The Netherlands capped its coal-fired power plant production at just 35 percent of capacity as it seeks to transition away from higher carbon dioxide emissions to clearer energy.

Its removal of the cap on coal-fired energy production is expected to save 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas use per year but Jetten noted that the Netherlands would still meet its 2030 climate goals, which included phasing out its last four coal-fired power plants by 2030.

The Dutch cabinet will announce additional measures aimed at reducing the extra CO2 to offset emissions from coal-fired power stations in the near future.

In the short-term, officials are working on a “temporary gas-saving tender that will give large gas consumers a financial incentive to reduce their gas consumption,” Jetten said.

Back in May Russia’s Gazprom cut off gas supplies to Dutch gas trader GasTerra after it had failed to pay for deliveries in Russian rubles as requested by Russian President Vladimir Putin in March.

That decision means Gazprom will not deliver some 2 billion cubic meters of gas to the Netherlands between now through Oct. 1, when its contract with GasTerra was set to end. However, Jetten stressed on Monday that there was currently no shortage of gas in the Netherlands.

“There are currently no acute gas shortages in the Netherlands, but the declining gas supplies could have consequences,” the climate and energy minister said.

“With the declaration of the first level of a gas crisis, gas companies must provide additional detailed information on current gas supplies and stocks on a daily basis. This will enable the government to monitor the gas market even more closely and immediately take additional measures if the situation so requires.”

The latest decision by the Dutch government comes just a day after Germany’s economy minister Robert Habeck said that the country will limit the use of natural gas for electricity production and instead increase coal burning to compensate. The move comes amid decreased supplies from Russia and fears over potential shortages.

Elsewhere on Monday, the Dutch government also announced plans to produce 2.8 billion bcm of gas from the Groningen gas field in the year ending October 2023, scaling back on the 4.5 bcm in the current production year.

“Due to the uncertain geopolitical developments, State Secretary Vijlbrief has decided not to close any wells definitively this year,” the government said.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA

Biden now signals to dial back the “winning” rhetoric” as Russian gains are now completely evident

(zerohedge)

Biden Signals To Own Officials & Zelensky: Dial Back The “Winning” Rhetoric As Russian Gains Now Evident

FRIDAY, JUN 17, 2022 – 08:00 PM

A bombshell investigative report in NBC has revealed President Biden sought to clamp down on the ratcheted Ukraine war rhetoric of his own top officials on fears their words would make escalation with Russia inevitable, and would set false expectations among allies.

In particular questions and concerns were raised within the administration following the late April trip by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to Kiev, where they met with President Zelensky. Their statements at the time asserted official US positions of wanting to see Ukraine forces “winning” against the Russians. It was especially Austin’s words during a press conference which seemed to mark a strategic shift in US planning, portending Washington escalation in support of Ukrainian forces. “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” the Pentagon chief said at the time.

But in a phone call Biden questioned the statements, calling his own officials to account, after he was reportedly angered upon learning about rhetoric centered on ‘winning’ against the RussiansUkrainian Presidential Press Office via AP: top Biden officials meet with Zelensky on Sunday, April 24, 2022, in Kiev.

Biden thought the secretaries had gone too far, according to multiple administration officials familiar with the call,” NBC reports. “On the previously unreported conference call, as Austin flew to Germany and Blinken to Washington, the president expressed concern that the comments could set unrealistic expectations and increase the risk of the U.S. getting into a direct conflict with Russia. He told them to tone it down, said the officials.”

“Biden was not happy when Blinken and Austin talked about winning in Ukraine,” one of them said. “He was not happy with the rhetoric.”

However, the response by Blinken and Austin was to say their statements had been “misconstrued,” according to officials cited in the report. Still, NBC’s sources underscore, Biden expressed “displeasure” given the potential for the false expectations set, and further, as NBC writes, that “the war would ultimately head in the direction it is now in two months later: a protracted conflict in which Russia continues to make small and steady advances.”

Now almost four months into the invasion, it’s become increasingly acknowledged that Russia has made significant gains across Ukraine’s east and south, now poised to solidify control over the whole of Donbas, and with Ukrainian forces constantly complaining about lack of enough weapons and ammo. The fall of the last Ukrainian holdout in Luhansk province, the city of Severodonetsk, is looking imminent.

With the tide of the war now shifted, following the early optimism and perhaps exaggerated headlines based on some early Ukrainian successes, Washington is reportedly signaling also to the Zelensky administration that it’s time to tone down the ‘victory’ rhetoric. The Thursday NBC investigative report comes days after the Ukrainian leader reiterated prior vows of “no concessions” on territory for the sake of peace – with Zelensky’s foreign minister and others even saying they would not so much as acknowledge Crimea as in Russian possession for the sake of a ceasefire. These positions have actually somewhat shifted since March, however, as at varying points during the course of the war some Ukraine officials have suggested being at least “open” to the idea.

At the time of the Austin-Blinken trip to Kiev, CNN and others called the ‘weaken Russia’ remarks a complete “strategy shift”, but now the Biden White House appears to be distancing itself from this prior provocative rhetoric

But it looks as if the tune is changing fast from among Kiev’s Western backers, even as unprecedented weapons packages and transfers continue to get approved. The NBC report notes US officials are quietly pushing a very different line than what’s represented in public:

U.S. officials are increasingly concerned that the trajectory of the war in Ukraine is untenable and are quietly discussing whether President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should temper his hard-line public position that no territory will ever be ceded to Russia as part of an agreement to end the war, according to seven current U.S. officials, former U.S. officials and European officials.

Officials were even quoted as saying they want Zelensky to “dial it back a little bit” when it comes to the hardline on ‘no compromise’.

However, one admin official was still quoted as saying, “We are not pressuring them to make concessions, as some Europeans are. We would never ask them to cede territory.” This means that “We are planning for a long war. We intend to prepare the American people for that, and we are prepared to ask Congress for more money.”

end

A third serviceman is missing in Ukraine

(zerohedge)

Biden Briefed As US Says 3rd American, A Retired Marine Officer, Missing In Ukraine

FRIDAY, JUN 17, 2022 – 06:00 PM

“I have been briefed. We don’t know where they are,” President Biden told reporters at the White House Friday of two Americans who had been fighting Russian forces on behalf of Ukraine. The State Department starting Thursday identified Alexander John-Robert Drueke, 39, from Tuscaloosa, Alabama and Andy Tai Ngoc Huynh, 27, from Hartselle, Alabama as currently “missing” from the battlefield, after Russian social media reports said they were captured by pro-Kremlin forces. But now there’s a third reported missing in the war-torn country.

“I want to reiterate: Americans should not be going to Ukraine now,” Biden emphasized, despite early in the war some Western officials and US allies, particularly the UK, appeared to actually encourage Westerners joining Ukraine’s volunteer foreign legion. “They should not be going to Ukraine.”Third US citizen possibly missing: Capt. Grady Kurpasi (right) had been deployed four times, including three to Iraq. Image: US Marine Corps

Admin officials say they are continuing to closely monitor the situation. If their capture by the Russian army is confirmed, it would mark the first known instance that American volunteers have been taken into custody by Russia, raising the stakes and tensions significantly between Washington and Moscow.

It was also revealed Friday that a third American fighter, a highly decorated Marine veteran, could be missing on the Ukrainian battlefield, possibly also taken into Russian custody:

State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters Thursday that the Biden administration is aware of a third American possibly missing in Ukraine. CNN subsequently identified that American as Grady Kurpasi, a veteran of the U.S. Marines, citing his wife.

Among the thousands of foreign fighters, most from the West, who have traveled to Ukraine to fight on its behalf, at least hundreds are believed to be US citizens.

CNN has these details on the third American, a career retired military officer, as follows:

A third American whom the State Department has identified as missing in action in Ukraine is a US Marine veteran, Grady Kurpasi, his wife confirmed to CNN.

The last time Heeson Kim and other close friends heard from Kurpasi was between April 23 and 24, George Heath, a family friend of Kurpasi’s told CNN. Kurpasi served in the US Marine Corps for 20 years, retiring in November 2021. He chose to volunteer alongside Ukrainians in Ukraine but initially did not envision himself fighting on the frontlines of the war, Heath said.

“Kurpasi arrived in Ukraine on March 7 and made it to Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, on March 21, Heath said. Kurpasi and other members of the foreign legion were tasked to man an observation post at the end of April near Kherson, around the time Kurpasi stopped communicating with his wife and friends back in the US, Heath said,” the report describes. But it qualifies, “It is not clear if Kurpasi was a member of the foreign legion, but he was a volunteer fighting alongside Ukrainians, Heath said.”

Little has been confirmed of the three Americans’ fate or whereabouts, with the Kremlin on Thursday having acknowledged the reports but without confirming it has them in custody.From left: Grady Kurpasi, Alex Drueke and Andy Tai Ngoc Huynh. (Mugshots.Zone via Facebook, Lois Drueke/Handout via Reuters, Handout via WAAYTV)

The State Department’s Price said in a briefing on Thursday: “There are many individuals in this country who are well-intentioned and who want to do everything they can to help the people of Ukraine.”

“Of course, we all understand that. There are avenues and ways to channel that energy, to channel those efforts in ways that are constructive and ultimately helpful for the people of Ukraine, and you can find many of those on our website,” he added.

END

UKRAINE

And the Biden Administration admires Ukraine?

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Bans Main Opposition Party, Seizes All Its Assets

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 09:30 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Ukrainian authorities have banned the country’s main opposition party and seized all its assets, once again undermining the narrative that President Zelensky is presiding over a beacon of democracy.

The country’s Ministry of Justice announced the move via Facebook, revealing that the Opposition Platform — For Life had been shut down and its assets, money and property transferred to the state.

The party had previously had its operations suspended in March after it was accused of being complicit with Russia and being “anti-Ukrainian.”

The ban means that Zelensky’s main political opposition has been eliminated. The OPPL was the second largest party in the country and its popularity surpassed that of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party last year.

Its leader Viktor Medvedchuk, who claims he is merely looking out for the interests of the Ukrainian people by seeking better relations with Russia, was placed under house arrest last month.

The announcement said the party was suspected of acting to “undermine the sovereignty” of Ukraine, with authorities have already banned 10 other political opposition parties for the same reason.

Last month, President Zelensky signed a bill into law that gave the green light to ban any party that challenged the government’s policy on the Russian invasion, empowering courts to seize assets without the right to appeal.

While opposition parties are being obliterated, Ukrainians who engage in dissent are also being rounded up and arrested by armed men from the Ukraine Security Service.

As we previously highlighted, Ukraine is also attempting to extradite and imprison citizens who live in other European countries if they criticize Zelensky.

Meanwhile, President Zelensky is still being hailed by western legacy media outlets as a valiant defender of democracy in contrast to the brutal autocratic dictators who control Russia.

What a joke.

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end

GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

They are totally crazy

(Stiiber/EpochTimes)

Study CDC Cited In Arguing For COVID-19 Vaccines For Babies Being Updated

MONDAY, JUN 20, 2022 – 06:45 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A non-peer-reviewed study that U.S. government scientists cited in asserting COVID-19 is a leading cause of death for children is being updated after inaccuracies were detected.A general view of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters in Atlanta, Ga., on Sept. 30, 2014. (Tami Chappell/Reuters)

The preprint paper, published in May, says that COVID-19 has been the fifth-leading cause of death during the pandemic for children aged 1 to 5. The authors, primarily British scientists, also concluded that COVID-19 has been a top cause of death for all children.

“Our findings underscore the importance of continued vaccination campaigns for [children ≥5 years] in the US and for effective Covid-19 vaccines for under 5 year olds,” they wrote.

But the paper has flaws, Seth Flaxman, a professor in Oxford University’s Department of Computer Science, and one of the authors, acknowledged on Twitter on June 19.

We have received some feedback and criticism along several dimensions. We are planning to update the preprint to take into account some of this feedback,” he said.

The study was cited in three separate presentations across two meetings during the week of June 12 as government officials and expert advisers weighed whether to authorize and recommend vaccines for young children.

Dr. Katherine Fleming-Dutra, a CDC official, twice cited the study while presenting data on how COVID-19 has affected children while speaking to government advisory panels.

“COVID-19 was a leading cause of death among children and adolescents during the pandemic. Previously, we showed data to ACIP that during 2020 COVID-19 was the 11th cause of death among children ages five through 11 years. But this has changed over the course of the pandemic. And looking at data through April 2022, COVID-19 now ranks as the fourth and fifth causes of death among children zero through 19 years of age,” Fleming-Dutra said on June 17 while speaking to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), which advises the CDC.

Read more here…

END

What a crook:  privately Tedros admits that the lab leak is the most likely explanation for COVID 19.

(zerohedge)

WHO’s Tedros Privately Admits Lab Leak ‘Most Likely Explanation’ For COVID-19

MONDAY, JUN 20, 2022 – 10:50 PM

The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who spent the early months of the pandemic publicly kowtowing to China, has privately admitted that he thinks Covid-19 escaped from a Chinese laboratory in a “catastrophic accident,” according to the Daily Mail, citing a senior Government source.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organisation (WHO), had recently confided to a senior European politician that the most likely explanation was a catastrophic accident at a laboratory in Wuhan, where infections first spread during late 2019.

The Mail on Sunday first revealed concerns within Western intelligence services about the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where scientists were manipulating coronaviruses sampled from bats in caves nearly 1,000 miles away – the same caves where Covid-19 is suspected to have originated – in April 2020. The worldwide death toll from the Covid pandemic is now estimated to have hit more than 18 million. -Daily Mail

The WHO came under heavy fire early into the pandemic for praising China’s “transparent” response to the pandemic, repeating misinformation from Beijing about human-to-human transmission, and bowing to pressure from Chinese President Xi Jinping not to declare the Covid-19 outbreak an emergency.

Yet, while initially promoting the natural origin theory, Tedros and the WHO have become far more ‘open’ to the lab leak theory – despite officially being on the fence, unlike Tedros.

“We do not yet have the answers as to where it came from or how it entered the human population,” Tedros told EU member states this month, adding “Understanding the origins of the virus is very important scientifically to prevent future epidemics and pandemics.”

“But morally, we also owe it to all those who have suffered and died and their families. The longer it takes, the harder it becomes. We need to speed up and act with a sense of urgency.”

All hypotheses must remain on the table until we have evidence that enables us to rule certain hypotheses in or out. This makes it all the more urgent that this scientific work be kept separate from politics. The way to prevent politicisation is for countries to share data and samples with transparency and without interference from any government. The only way this scientific work can progress successfully is with full collaboration from all countries, including China, where the first cases of SARS-CoV-2 were reported.” -Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

Notably, China initially resisted a WHO probe into the origins of SARS-CoV-2 – however highly conflicted point-man and Wuhan collaborator Peter Daszak spearheaded a Beijing-friendly report that concluded the virus was likely passed to humans through animal intermediaries.

Yet, after 14 nations criticized the report, including the UK, US, and Australia, Tedros admitted the report was flawed and ordered another investigation, sans Daszak, which the NIH funded to literally enhance bat covid to be more transmissible to humans, in the town where Covid first appeared, working with China’s “bat lady” who was doing the same types of risky experiments.

END

COVID Exposed The Medical-Pharmaceutical-Government Complex

MONDAY, JUN 20, 2022 – 04:25 PM

Authored by Mark Oshinskie via The Brownstone Institute,

In college, I took a Latin American Politics and Development class. When discussing Latin American medical care, Professor Eldon Kenworthy presented a deeply countercultural idea. Echoing a journal article by the scholar, Robert Ayres, Kenworthy maintained that building hospitals there costs lives. If, instead of erecting, equipping and staffing gleaming medical centers, this same money and human effort were devoted to providing clean water, good food and sanitation, the public health yield would be much greater. 

United States medical history bears out Ayres’s paradox. The biggest increases in US life expectancy occurred early in the Twentieth Century, when people had increasing access to calories and protein, better water and sanitation. Lives lengthened sharply decades before vaccines, antibiotics or nearly any drugs were available, and a century before hospitals merged into corporate Systems.

Incremental American life span increases during the past fifty years reflect far less smoking, safer cars and jobs, cleaner air and less lethal wars more than they reflect medical advances. Books like Ivan Illich’s Medical Nemesis and Daniel Callahan’s Taming the Beloved Beast echo Ayres’s critique. But PBS, CNN, B & N, the NYT, et al. censor such views.

The American medical landscape has changed radically in the forty years since I learned of Ayres’ observation.

America spends three times as much, as a percentage of GDP, on medical treatments as it did in the 1960s. 

By 2020, America devoted 18% of its GDP to medicine. (By comparison, about 5% goes to the military). Adding the mega-costs of mass testing and vaccines etc., medical expenditures might now approach 20%. Although the US spends more than twice per capita what any other nation spends on medical care, American ranks 46th in life expectancy. US life expectancy has flatlined, despite growing medical spending and broadened medical access via the vaunted Affordable Care Act. 

Though medicine’s high-cost and relatively low yield are right in front of anyone who thinks about their medical experiences and those of people they know, most never connect the dots; more medical treatments and spending are continually advocated and applauded. There’s a regressive “if it saves—or even slightly extends—one life” medical zeitgeist/ethic.

As most medical insurance is employer-based, most people don’t notice annual premium increases. Nor do they see the growing slice of tax revenues used to subsidize Med/Pharma. Thus, they continually demand more stuff, like IVF, extremely high-cost drugs, sex changes or psychotherapy, as if these were their right, and free. To say nothing of these treatments’ limited effectiveness. 

As all are required to medically insure and to pay taxes, one can’t simply opt out or buy only those medical services that one thinks justify their costs. With massive, guaranteed funding sources, aggregate medical revenues will continue to climb. 

Thus, Medical-Industrial-Government Complex has become a Black Hole for today’s wealth. With great money comes great power. The Med/Pharma juggernaut rules the airwaves. Nonexistent until the 1990s, hospital System and drug ads now dominate advertising. By being such big advertisers, Med/Pharma dictates news content. Analysts who point out that lavish medical expenditures don’t yield commensurate public health benefit have small audiences. Med/Pharma critics can’t afford ads. 

Medicine has fed Coronamania. The TV news I’ve seen during the past 27 months painted a very skewed picture of reality. The virus has been misrepresented—by the media and government, and by MDs, like Fauci, often posing in white jackets— as a runaway train that’s indiscriminately decimating the American populace. Instead of putting into perspective the virus’s clear demographic risk profile and the very favorable survival odds—even without treatment, at all ages, or promoting various forms of contra-Covid self-care, including weight loss—the media and medical establishment incited universal panic, and promoted counterproductive mass isolation, mass masking, mass testing, and treatment with ventilators and expensive, often harmful anti-virals. 

Later, mass injections were added to the “Covid-crushing” armamentarium. While the shots created many billionaires, and greatly enriched other Pfizer and Moderna stockholders, they failed, as Biden and many others had promised, to stop either infection or the spread. All of the many whom I know who have been infected in the past six months were vaxxed. 

Many—whose voices are suppressed by mainstream media—observe that the shots have worsened outcomes, by driving the development of variants, weakening or confusing immune systems, and causing serious near-term injuries. 

Further, people blindly, ardently believed in the shots simply because they were marketed as “vaccines” by bureaucrats wearing medical garb. Despite the shots’ failure and the failure of other “mitigation” measures like lockdowns, masking and testing, many refuse to concede that Med/Pharma has had much—overwhelmingly negative— influence over the society and economy and public health during Coronamania. Nonetheless, many billions of dollars have been—and are still being—spent to advertise shots that most people don’t want. 

The Covid overreaction has to some extent also piggy-backed on TV programs that have, for decades, glorified medicine in TV shows like Dr. Kildare, Marcus Welby, M.D., Medical Center, MASH, Gray’s Anatomy and House. Wearing white coats connotes virtue, just as did wearing white hats in Western movies. 

Given the cumulative PR onslaught of the ads and shows, medicine is widely seen as more effective than it is in real life. A few years ago, I heard some woman-in-the-street say, during a TV news clip, “If they make me change my doctor, it will be like losing my right arm.” 

Many hold such polar views. Medicine is the new American religion. Given such fervent belief in medicine’s importance and the sense of entitlement regarding expanding medical treatments, government and insurance money is relentlessly overallocated to medicine. 

Do these expenditures improve human outcomes? During the first Scrubs episode, resident J.D. complains to his mentor that being a doctor was different than he had envisioned; most of his patients were “old and kind of checked out.” His mentor responds, “That’s Modern Medicine: advances that keep people alive who should have died a long time ago, back when they lost what made them human.”

This largely describes those said to have died with Covid. Most people have disregarded that nearly all who died during the pandemic were old and/or in poor health. Most deaths have always occurred among the old and ill. Occasionally, sitcoms keep it realer than real people do.

Aside from not helping much and misspending resources, and extending misery, medicine can be iatrogenic, i.e., it can cause illness or death. Hospital errors are said to cause from 250,000 to 400,000 American deaths annually. Perhaps medical personnel try to do a good job. but when the bodies of old, sick people are cut open or dosed with strong medicine, stuff happens. Even well-executed surgeries and many medications can worsen health. 

Further, though few know it, a brew of excreted medications and diagnostic radionuclides daily pours down drains across the US and world and ends up in streams and rivers. For example, the hormones in widely-prescribed birth control pills feminize and disrupt aquatic creatures’ reproduction. There are books about all of this, too, though such authors never appear on Good Morning America. 

Faith in medical interventions also lessens individual and institutional efforts to maintain or improve health. If people didn’t abuse substances, ate better and moved their bodies more, there would be much less demand for medical interventions. And if people spent less time working to pay for medical insurance, they could spend more time taking care of themselves and others. Overall, America could spend a fraction of what it spends on allopathic medicine and yet, be much healthier. There are also plenty of books about this. 

Given its place at the center of American life for 27 months, and counting, Covid has been—and will be—used to further intensify the medicalization of individual lives, the economy, and society. By exploiting and building an irrational fear of death, the Medical Industrial Complex will promote the notion that we should double—or triple—down on medical and social interventions and investments that might marginally extend the lives of a small slice of the population. Or, in many instances, shorten lives. 

But most people who live sensibly are intrinsically healthy for many years. Given enough nutritious food, clean water and a decent place to sleep, most people will live a long time, with little or no medical treatment. While intensive medical interventions can marginally extend the lives of some old, sick people, medicine can’t reverse aging and it seldom restores vitality. 

If the media were honest brokers, the Covid mania would never have taken hold. The media should have repeatedly pointed out that the virus only threatened a small, identifiable segment of a very large population. Instead, captive to its Med/Pharma sponsors, the media went full-frontal fearmonger and promoted intensive, society-wide intervention. Social, psychological and economic catastrophe ensued.

Additionally, many doctors who could have spoken against the Covid craziness stayed silent so as not to jeopardize their licenses, hospital privileges or favored status with Pharma, or just because they were schooled in allopathic orthodoxy and hold fast to that faith. Props to those courageous few who broke ranks. 

The Med/Pharma/Gov establishment, including the NIH and CDC, hasn’t saved America during 2020-22. To the contrary, Covid interventions have worsened overall societal outcomes. These net harms should have inflicted—and, depending on longer-term vaxx effects, may yet inflict—a big black eye on the Medical Industrial Complex. 

If so, Med/Pharma will spend tens of billions of PR money to distort what’s happened for the past 27 months, and to portray well-paid medical personnel, administrators and bureaucrats as selfless heroes. Many gullible Americans will buy this slick revisionism, including its portrayals of healthy-looking people walking in slow motion on beaches or across meadows in golden light, accompanied by a contemplative solo piano soundtrack.

END

Paul Alexander

This is an important read;

Paul Alexander

Omicron BA.4 & BA.5 sub-variants; “This May Be the COVID Variant Scientists Are Dreading”; this report shows you how inept and moronic and out of step the handling of vaccine & omicron has been

Dr. Paul AlexanderJun 21

SOURCE:

This May Be the COVID Variant Scientists Are Dreading

The Daily Beast said:

‘A pair of new subvariants of the dominant Omicron variant—BA.4 and BA.5—appear to be driving the uptick in cases in the U.K. Worryingly, these subvariants seem to partially dodge antibodies from past infection or vaccination, making them more transmissible than other forms of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.’

To be fair, we cannot expect a Daily Beast reporter to address the issues. The statement above is wrong for it completely disregards the main reason that the vaccinated are getting infected. The non-neutralizing antibodies that bind to the virus is the reason.

The following three show that the induced vaccinal antibodies (Abs) (non-neutralizing) bind to the virus’s spike and enhances the infectiousness of the virus to the vaccinated person. The infectious behavior of the virus cannot be accounted for by the virus itself. Properties intrinsic to the virus. We argue that infectiousness must be looked at from the view of the non-neutralizing Abs that bind and enhance infectiousness in the vaccinated. In short, the non-neutralizing Abs give the virus the property of increased infectiousness. Enhanced infectiousness.

1)Yahi et al.: Infection-enhancing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies recognize both the original Wuhan/D614G strain and Delta variants. A potential risk for mass vaccination?

2)Liu et al.: An infectivity-enhancing site on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein targeted by antibodies

3)Lempp et al.: Lectins enhance SARS-CoV-2 infection and influence neutralizing antibodies

This other statement is what we were concerned about:

“There are also some suggestions that the new subvariants have evolved to target the lungs—unlike Omicron, which usually resulted in a less dangerous infection of the upper respiratory tract.”

in this regard, researchers show us why vaccinees are less vulnerable to severe disease in the lower lung, respiratory tract. Researchers show that the very same non-neutralizing Abs in the upper respiratory tract (URT) work in the lower respiratory tract (LRT) and prevents fusion of infected cells with non-infected cells that prevent the formation of syncytia and those syncytia is linked (correlated) to severe disease.

The ‘common’ denominator that is determining the infectiousness and severe nature of the virus is the non-neutralizing Abs. It binds in the URT and enhances infectiousness yet binds in the LRT and prevents severe disease. The concern is that this blocking of severe disease in the LRT may be overcome in time (lose their protective effect) and we run the risk if we continue with the non-neutralizing vaccines, of generating both infectious and severe lethal, virulent variants.

1)Asarnow et al.: Structural insight into SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies and modulation of syncytia

end

Paul Alexander..

Sperm count in males? What’s a little COVID injection here, a COVID injection there, a COVID injection everywhere got to do with it? Well, Itai Gat et al.’s ANDROLOGY publication says ‘A LOT’

Evidence suggests that there are substantial declines in male sperm count post COVID jab, 2nd one is problematic; raises serious fertility issues 1st raised by Dr. Byram Bridle, myself, Japanese FOIA

Dr. Paul AlexanderJun 21

The Japanese biodistribution data based on a FOIA and we owe thanks to Dr. Bridle, a colleague out of Canada (smeared and cancelled) showed us that the COVID vaccine contents bio-accumulated in the adrenals, spleen, ovaries, testis, liver etc.

So we have massive myocarditis and pericarditis risk in males under 30 or so, now add this fertility concern, even if the authors tried to say they saw sperm recovery at about 5-6 months. This has to be clarified and validated in further study and I for one, do not buy their feeble explanations. They want cake and want to eat it too and are part of the problem we have in medical publishing today with the covering up of bad data and evidence. These ‘woke’ researchers try to further deceive the public with their nonsensical ‘discussions’ of the findings. But we are the judge, not those ‘crooked’ authors and medical journals.

Bottom line is these results are very troubling and raises a potentially very serious future outlook for males, young males who took the COVID injections. Myocarditis is often asymptomatic, so I urge males (I am not your doctor yet I provide you my guidance as if to my brother or son), especially teens, to do the right tests e.g. troponin, Electrocardiogram (ECG or EKG), Echocardiogram etc. Discuss with your doctor.

Thus, despite these researchers bending over backwards to be ‘woke’ and to give no hint that the vaccine impacts fertility, their discussion section is laughable for they did not make the case. The data they present based on sperm donors having been double vaccinated (Pfizer), is very troubling indeed.

See tables 2 and 3 next, point being marked declines in sperm count. The COVID jab is seeming to have a potentially catastrophic effect on human fertility/reproduction.

SOURCE:

Covid-19 vaccination BNT162b2 temporarily impairs semen concentration and total motile count among semen donors

Table 2:

Table 3:

Methods:

“37 SD (sperm donors) from three sperm banks that provided 220 samples, were included in that retrospective longitudinal multicenter cohort study.BNT162b2 vaccination included two doses, and vaccination completion was scheduled7 days after the second dose. The study included four phases: T0 –pre-vaccination baseline control, which encompassed1-2 initial samples per SD; T1,T2 and T3 –short, intermediate, and long terms evaluations, respectively. Each included 1-3 semen samples per donor provided 15-45,75-120, and over 150 days after vaccination completion, respectively. The primary end points were semen parameters. Three statistical analyses were conducted: 1) generalized estimated equation model; 2) first sample and 3) samples’ mean of each donor per period were compared to T0.

The primary endpoints were semen volume, sperm concentration, overall sperm motility(progressive and non-progressive)and total motile count (TMC)comparison betweenT0 vs. T1,T2and T3. Continuous parameters were evaluated for normal distribution using histogram and Q-Q plot. Since volume, concentration and TMC were squawked, they were transformed using the natural logarithm function.”

What do we see in the tables? Lets focus on Table 2.

We see:

1)we semen volume drop 4.5% at T 2 (5 months post 2nd dose), time 2, despite the authors reporting a non-significant drop across T 1 to T 3.

Note: T0 –pre-vaccination baseline control; T1, T2, and T3 –short, intermediate, and long-term evaluations after 15-45, 75-150, and over 150 days after vaccination date, respectively.

2) Sperm concentration drops significantly by 15.4% at T 2 (over 2 to 5 months or so post 2nd shot)

3)Total Motile Count declines by 22% at T 2 (2 to 5 months post 2nd shot) and does not recover much by T 3 (more than 5 months post 2nd shot, vaccination completion)

A limitation could be use of sperm donors as their sperm quality etc. may be different than that of the general population. The observational retrospective study design is a weaker design.

Researchers tried to say that the sperm count recovered. I am not too convinced by the data presented nor the flimsy explanations. We knew this was an issue and these types of studies are raising the red flags that we may have a serious fertility issue to come.

end

Paul Alexander

heavy vaccinated Israel sees huge problems:

Paul Alexander…

“Israel sees 70% spike in number of seriously ill COVID patients within a week”; go back to my prior substacks, I have been warning about this, Geert Vanden Bossche too as my mentor, we theorized

that sub-optimal non-sterilizing non-neutralizing vaccinal antibodies (Abs) bind to the spike but not eliminate, yet enhances/facilitates infection in vaxxed person, & soon we will see serious disease

Dr. Paul AlexanderJun 19

Most if not all Israel is vaccinated and many boosted.

The issue is that the same vaccinal Abs that enhance and facilitate infection in the upper respiratory tract (URT), have been blocking severe disease in the lower respiratory tract (LRT) deep inside the lung. That is why we were seeing at first when Omicron emerged, a very strange situation we never saw before where a virus could do both things, cause infection yet mild illness. We even thought OMI was nature’s gift with mild illness. We spoke about this changing as the sub-optimal vaccinal immune pressure would cause the variants to overcome the pressure and we would shift from blocking illness in the LRT (transfection from infected to uninfected cells) to severe disease. Could this now be happening in Israel? I don’t know. We thought that it would happen in one of the most vaccinated nations. Could this be the beginning of a very dangerous situation we spoke about prior? Or is this the usual deaths that emerge 2-3 weeks post infection/case peak (death curve)? All the same, Israel is experiencing some trouble. Why? Near 100% vaccinated.

These vaccines are causing a serious problem.

See paper below by Yahi et al. as a concern for ADE in people receiving vaccines based on the original Wuhan strain spike sequence (either mRNA or viral vectors). Under these circumstances, second generation vaccines with spike protein formulations lacking structurally-conserved ADE-related epitopes should be considered. Yahi et al.’s research demonstrated in the case of the Delta variant (and certainly now in Omicron BA 4 & BA 5 sub-variants), neutralizing (blocking) antibodies have a decreased affinity for the spike protein, whereas facilitating or enhancing (non-neutralizing) antibodies displayed a pronounced increased affinity for the spike protein.

SOURCE:

Israel sees 70% spike in number of seriously ill COVID patients within a week

‘It’s an unpredictable and unstable situation,’ says immune system expert Prof. Cyrille Cohen, urging lawmakers to ‘actively encourage herd immunity among the vulnerable’

SOURCE:

Yahi et al.: Infection-enhancing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies recognize both the original Wuhan/D614G strain and Delta variants. A potential risk for mass vaccination?

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GLOBAL ISSUES/SUPPLY CHAINS

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VACCINE INJURY//

Exclusive: More Vaccine-Injured Pilots Speak Out as Groups Pressure Airlines, Regulators to End Mandates • Children’s Health Defense

Inbox

Robert Hryniak3:48 PM (6 minutes ago)
to

Anyone currently traveling has experienced all manner of flight cancellations, due to related staffing issues. This trend is likely to be ongoing into the future.

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Eighty percent of those DYING from “covid” in Canada are fully jabbed – NaturalNews.com

Inbox

Robert Hryniak3:55 PM (0 minutes ago)
to

This really makes you wonder if vaccines are not another money grab at the expense of the public purse and public health? 

Can this reality be a sinister grab for cash while ignoring the public good? Because if the public concludes this is the case, being a politician or public health official will be a poor brand to carry. 



https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-06-18-deaths-covid-canada-fully-vaccinated.html

Eighty percent of those DYING from “covid” in Canada are fully jabbed

Ethan Huff

Image: Eighty percent of those DYING from “covid” in Canada are fully jabbed

(Natural News) Four out of every five new deaths being blamed on the Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) in Canada are occurring in people who took all of the “vaccine” injections as demanded by the Justin Trudeau regime.

The government of Canada has confirmed that 80 percent of “covid” deaths are “fully vaccinated” deaths, which completely defies the official government claim that the shots are perfectly “safe and effective” and help “stop the spread.”

Amazingly, those who took three injections (the two primaries plus a “booster”) account for 70 percent of all deaths – suggesting that the more Fauci Flu shots a person gets, the more likely he or she is to end up a statistic.

Epidemiology data from the Canadian government, which is reported sporadically and “when[ever] they feel like it,” according to Exposé News, clearly shows that getting needled for Chinese Germs does not protect against either infection or death.

This data is skewed, as you might imagine, because of the timeframe used, which is designed to deceive. (Related: Remember when the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention admitted that “most” new cases of the Omicron variant are being detected in the fully jabbed?)

“Unfortunately, the Government of Canada is attempting to deceive the public by providing a tally of cases, hospitalisations and deaths that stretches all the way back to December 14th 2020,” the Exposé explains.

“By doing this they’re able to include a huge wave that occurred in January 2021 when just 0.3% of the population of Canada was considered fully vaccinated.”

Don’t be fooled: Getting jabbed for covid is likely to sicken or kill you

Fortunately, use of the so-called “Wayback Machine” allows a more accurate look at the data that the Canadian government does not want people to see, which shows something much different when performing independent mathematical calculations.

The Exposé was able to determine that the most recent “waves” of covid, including hospitalizations and deaths, occurred not among the unvaccinated, but primarily among the fully vaccinated.

“Canada recorded 429,335 Covid-19 cases between 14th Feb and 29th May 2022, and 376,451 of those cases were among the vaccinated population,” the independent news outlet reported. “With 11,211 cases among the partly vaccinated, 138,086 cases among the double vaccinated, and 227,154 cases among the triple vaccinated.”

“This means the unvaccinated population accounted for 12% of Covid-19 cases between 14th Feb and 29th May, whilst the vaccinated population accounted for 88%, 60% of which were among the triple jabbed.”

Similarly with hospitalizations, Canada’s hospitals saw a massive influx of new patients between February 14 of this year and May 29. Nearly all hospitalization cases were people who had been either double or triple jabbed.

“This means the unvaccinated population accounted for just 22% of hospitalisations, whilst the vaccinated population accounted for 78%, 63% of which were among the triple jabbed,” the Exposé revealed.

Then we have deaths, which during the same time period mostly occurred in people who were double or triple jabbed. Over these 15 weeks, 4,954 people died from “covid” in Canada, at least officially speaking, and 3,796 of these deaths occurred in the double or triple injected.

“If you don’t find these figures that concerning, perhaps you will once you realise between 30k and 50k Canadians are getting their third dose of the Covid-19 vaccine every single day,” the Exposé reports, providing a very clear and disturbing picture of what is really happening to people who take these so-called “vaccines.”

“But now, despite the Government of Canada clearly trying desperately to conceal it, a bit of time, effort, and simple math has revealed 88% of cases, 78% of hospitalisations and 77% of deaths were recorded among the fully vaccinated population between 14th Feb and 29th May 2022.”

The latest news about Fauci Flu shots can be found at ChemicalViolence.com.

Sources for this article include:

Expose-News.com

Vaccine Impact

Fifth Largest Life Insurance Company in US Paid Out 163% More for Deaths of Working People ages 18-64 in 2021 After COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates

June 17, 2022 1:40 pm

Five months after breaking the story of the CEO of One America insurance company saying deaths among working people ages 18-64 were up 40% in the third quarter of 2021, I can report that a much larger life insurance company, Lincoln National, reported a 163% increase in death benefits paid out under its group life insurance policies in 2021. This is according to the annual statements filed with state insurance departments — statements that were provided exclusively to Crossroads Report in response to public records requests. The reports show a more extreme situation than the 40% increase in deaths in the third quarter of 2021 that was cited in late December by One America CEO Scott Davison — an increase that he said was industry-wide and that he described at the time as “unheard of” and “huge, huge numbers” and the highest death rates that have ever been seen in the history of the life insurance business. The annual statements for Lincoln National Life Insurance Company show that the company paid out in death benefits under group life insurance policies a little over $500 million in 2019, about $548 million in 2020, and a stunning $1.4 billion in 2021. From 2019, the last normal year before the pandemic, to 2020, the year of the Covid-19 virus, there was an increase in group death benefits paid out of only 9 percent. But group death benefits in 2021, the year the vaccine was introduced, increased almost 164 percent over 2020.

Read More…


Monkeypox Renamed for Shingles? COVID-19 Vaccines Increase Risk of Shingles by 4,925%

June 17, 2022 2:01 pm

Monkeypox; or the new name the W.H.O are urgently trying to find for it to make it sound more frightening, is about to become the word of the day in the mainstream media now that they know everyone is bored of hearing about Ukraine. The World Health Organization is convening an emergency meeting and will most likely have announced a Public Health Emergency of International Concern over the alleged disease by the end of June. All member states including the USA, UK, Canada, Europe, Australia etc. will be legally obliged to then act and respond. But data made available by the U.S. Government strongly suggests the alleged “monkeypox” outbreak may not be what it appears to be. The disease is nigh on impossible to distinguish from chickenpox/shingles, and the U.S. Gov. data reveals that Covid-19 vaccination increases the risk of developing shingles by a shocking 4925% at the very least.

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This is Not a “Recession” – This is a Total Collapse of the Financial System to Bail Out the Globalists Who Want to Enslave Us

June 18, 2022 1:55 pm

The severity of the economic disaster facing the United States continues to be minimized if not altogether ignored by the corporate media, as they use very tame words such as “recession” and “bear market” to describe the current financial conditions we are all facing. I have confirmed this week that people are already starting to suffer from high prices on gasoline and rising prices on food, as many food banks across the country are seeing dramatic increases in traffic, while the supply of donated food to many of these food pantries is diminishing. And things are just going to get worse, not better, so there is little time left to prepare for what is going to be the total collapse of the financial system, and the implementation of the Great Reset, which will bail out the Globalist bankers and Wall Street Billionaires and place the rest of society into a slave market, where cash will disappear, and new Central Bank Digital Currencies will be implemented for those who comply with this new system. China is currently further ahead in implementing this new Great Reset than most other countries, as most of its residents cannot travel or participate in the economy without their digital IDs which the government controls. For the rest of this article I am going to include perspectives on the current financial situation and what lies ahead from the alternative media, which is where you need to go now to truly understand what is happening and to combat the propaganda from the corporate media, which is controlled by the same Globalists who are implementing this “Great Reset.”

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FDA Allows Pfizer and Moderna to Inject Babies and Toddlers with COVID-19 Vaccines as Florida is Only State that Refuses to Participate

June 18, 2022 2:57 pm

As expected, the FDA rubber stamped Pfizer’s and Moderna’s request to start injecting babies and toddlers between the ages of 6 months and through 4 years old with toxic and deadly COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. The FDA is simply a branch of Big Pharma and this was just a formality, as the Biden Administration had already purchased 10 million doses for this age group weeks ago, and began distributing them to the states in preparation. What was unexpected, however, was that it was reported that Florida and the DeSantis Administration was the lone State to refuse to participate in this pre-purchase of 10 million doses from the Biden Administration. Was the DeSantis Administration taking this position for political purposes, having seen how Donald Trump infuriated his voter base by continuing to promote the dangerous COVID-19 shots? The Big Pharma drug pushers reacted in horror, with many doctors in Florida stating that they were not going to be able to order the vaccines if the State did not participate, and a Congressional Panel also took DeSantis to task. Some reports seem to indicate that Florida did reverse their decision, but apparently they simply clarified that doctors would be able to place orders through the federal system, but that the State Health Department would not be participating. So in the end, babies and toddlers in Florida can still be abused by their parents and doctors who choose to inject them with killer COVID-19 shots, but the DeSantis Administration will not endorse it. Even if this was simply a political decision, we applaud the Governor and his administration for taking this stance, one that no other Republican Governor has taken.

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WARNING! Pfizer Lied About Results in COVID-19 Vaccine Trials for Babies and Toddlers

June 19, 2022 4:53 pm

The deadly Pfizer COVID-19 “vaccine” was originally scheduled to be approved by the FDA and made available to the public in early 2022 for babies and toddlers between the age of 6 months and through 4 years old. On February 14, 2022, Scott Gottlieb, who was the FDA Commissioner under President Trump from May 11, 2017 to April 5, 2019 before joining the Board of Directors of Pfizer, appeared on CNBC to explain to the public why Pfizer’s vaccine was not yet ready for infants: there were not enough children that young sick with COVID-19 to be able to complete testing during the vaccine trials. That one fact alone should have been enough to stop any development of a COVID-19 vaccine for the youngest and most helpless members of our country. Not wanting to miss out on the last remaining market share of people who had not yet been given emergency use authorization for a COVID-19 vaccine, however, Pfizer did what every vaccine manufacturer does when facts get in the way of introducing a money-making vaccine: they lied and made up their own statistics. That is the opinion of one doctor who has read the clinical trial results that Pfizer used to claim that their COVID-19 vaccine was safe and effective in babies and toddlers, claiming that the raw data actually proves the opposite. Now millions of ignorant parents will be traumatized as they watch their babies suffer and many of them die a horrible death, due to this poisonous vaccine.

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Waiting in Line for Hours to Withdraw Funds Bank Runs Increase in China as Bank-Issued Digital Currency Use Expands

June 20, 2022 5:03 pm

China continues to lead the world in implementing the Globalists’ Great Reset, as financial systems around the world begin to collapse. Watching what is happening in China, if you can find the heavily-censored news, will give a preview of how things are likely to unfold in other countries. Bank failures now seem to be accelerating in China, as panic begins to set in among the public, and it is being reported that in some areas people are standing in line for many hours trying to withdraw funds from their accounts. The run on banks is apparently a reaction to the story we covered last week where over 1 million residents in China’s Henan Province were prevented from withdrawing their money from their bank, with many losing their entire life savings. As protesters were heading to Henan province’s capital Zhengzhou to demand to get their money back, Chinese health authorities used their COVID-19 tracking app to turn up “red,” forcing them into quarantine, in order to stop the protests. When the current banking system can no longer meet the demands of its depositors, the Globalists will move on to the next phase of the Great Reset, which is to replace currencies and hard cash with Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). While many of us in the Alternative Media have been warning about the dangers of CBDCs for years now, most in the general public are totally unaware of how using a Central Bank issued digital currency will eliminate almost all of your privacy, and make you a financial slave to the system. Not only will they be able to track every single one of your financial transactions, they will be in a position to enforce social behavior as well as a condition for you to have access to funds in “your” account on their servers, such as comply with COVID-19 or other health mandates, like mandatory vaccines. China leads most of the world right now in rolling out their State Bank-issued digital currencies, so let’s take a look at how they have done it so far, as both Russia and the U.S. scramble to try and catch up with China and issue their own Central Bank digital currencies.

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82% Pregnant Women Getting COVID Vaccine have Miscarriages – More than the Abortion Pill

June 20, 2022 5:55 pm

In January of 2021, the New England Journal of Medicine came out with an article that stated that pregnant women who got the shot did not have a higher rate of spontaneous miscarriage. However, when you look at the data, they lumped women in their third trimester into the first-trimester group and assessed whether or not they had a first-trimester spontaneous miscarriage. When you take that cohort out, the rate of miscarriage was 82%, right in line with findings from the Pfizer documents. Dr. Elizabeth Mumper: “For a first-trimester woman to get this injection, they have more of a chance of having a miscarriage or stillbirth than if they were to actually take an abortifacient.”

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Michael Every//

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

Rabobank: Like Riding A Bicycle

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 06:30 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

“Like riding a bicycle” is an idiom that says once we learn to do tricky things we never forget. However, all around us important people are forgetting how to ride their bicycles. US President Biden is one, but there are so many others it’s hard to keep track – or on the track.

Friday saw the BOJ keep peddling away furiously at yield curve control, refusing to accept that if they cannot regain a large trade surplus then there is no way to cushion the downward effects on JPY. For markets, this tour de Japan towards the cliff-edge was taken as relief. Indeed, we saw mostly equity stabilization, and only a moderate drift higher in key bond yields.

Notably, there was a further collapse in crypto over the weekend, albeit with Bitcoin bouncing off key support. (On which, I was just told: i) it’s been here before, i.e., below the cost of mining; and ii) it’s worth holding in small amounts as a lottery ticket given the system is so rigged against the asset-poor young that there is no other way they can ever hope to retire with dignity. It’s not an “-ism” to base a political-economy on, but you get the drift.)

More notable, but less noted, Friday also saw widespread falls in commodities. So much so that I was tempted to run with the Daily title: ‘Ferrous Bueller’s Day Off’. At time of writing Brent oil was $114, down from $121 at its Friday peak, and having been under $112.

Is this the start of a generalized asset melt-down, including commodities, so at least longer-dated bonds get a bid despite Fed hikes? Or is it just a sell-off of performing assets to garner liquidity to cover margin calls on slumping ones? US voices provide evidence in both directions from the back of a tandem wobbling towards us at ever slower speed.

The Fed’s Waller argued for a 75bps hike again in July, and is “all in” on fighting inflation; yet also stressed rate cuts to zero and more QE are now policy tools for even a “typical” recession, and there is a “good chance” they will be used again by the Fed. As everyone except the Fed, and Treasury Secretary Yellen on TV on Sunday, sees a recession as inevitable, does that mean zero rates and QE are coming again soon to the US, BOJ-style?

There is a long article from historian Niall Ferguson at Bloomberg worth looking at here titled, ‘The Fed Hasn’t Fixed Its Worst Blunder Since the 1970s: Jay Powell wants us to believe he has what it takes to bring inflation under control. History warns us to be sceptical’. It concludes:

“Will the Powell Fed be more like the Burns Fed or the Volcker Fed? We won’t know for sure until it confronts something much uglier than the current equity bear market. All we do know is that Powell has blinked before now – and in response to a 19% stock market correction in late 2018 and a president with a Twitter habit. Trump’s successor is not much of tweeter. But the market is already down further.

I knew Paul Volcker. I also remember the 1970s. For younger viewers, it’s going to come as a shock to see That ‘70s Show for the first time. Spoiler alert: Not much about that decade was transitory. Try listening to the interminable guitar solos on “Stairway to Heaven” or “Free Bird” to get in the mood.”

One can see why the crypto crowd might be holding on to their Willy Wonka tickets in the hope they are ‘golden’, not melting like chocolate. Yet, if so, commodities will not stay down, and hence input inflation will stay high, and so will overall inflation.

High inflation is already guaranteed by geopolitics, as Robin Brooks of the IIF underlines: “Putin is cutting gas deliveries to Europe. Europe was always going to end up here – no Russian gas – except that an embargo would have allowed us to hold our heads high. As Churchill said: “You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.”” And no gas. To which Germany is responding by burning more coal, having insisted on going ahead with shutting down its final nuclear power-plants this year.

Europe and the West certainly have economic war: and how anyone can make economic forecasts, or national, business, or energy strategy presuming they won’t reminds me of the inverse of the old adage about a fish needing a bicycle. Indeed, President Putin’s ‘Russian Davos’ speech on Friday accused the US of acting as though it is “God’s emissary on Earth,” presented Russia as the emerging leader in “a new world order,” that would confront the US superpower status and prosper (as Beijing underlines its non-military foreign-policy support for Moscow), and stressed, “Only strong and sovereign governments can speak their minds in this new-born world order – either that or they’re destined to remain colonies.”  We obviously see that in Ukraine, where NATO warns the war could drag on for years.

Bloomberg has another op-ed, from Max Hastings titled, ‘Putin May Win in Ukraine But Can Still Be Stopped’. It argues:

“In a famous, or rather notorious, address to a committee of the Prussian parliament in 1862, Otto von Bismarck said: “Not through speeches and majority decisions will the great questions of the day be decided” but by “Blut und Eisen” – blood and iron. We like to believe that civilized 21st-century societies have advanced beyond such brutish doctrine. Yet Putin is attempting to demonstrate that he can exploit extreme violence to secure a vastly larger role on the world stage than Russia’s economic and political stature confers.”

Yet we do not have economic forecasts to match, let alone national geoeconomic strategy. Making this point, military-expert Andrew Michta tweets, “Russia is at war, with its economy aligned accordingly. The West does not seem able to recognize fully how the world has already changed, for this would require us to make tough decisions concerning our own production. If we persist, it will cost us.” To which geostrategist @SariArhoHavren replies, “In Western Europe, I hear constant comments from ordinary people how this war is “unnecessary”, “look at the inflation”, “win or lose won’t affect us” – people have become lazy, selfish, taking freedom for granted and have forgotten their history. Maybe they deserve what is coming.”

Maybe they do, maybe they don’t: but it’s coming.

Even in the US doing all the heavy lifting on Ukraine, and where Congress is about to push for a larger budget for the Indo-Pacific to match China, we see a report titled ‘The Return of Industrial Warfare’. It begins, “Can the West still provide the arsenal of democracy? The war in Ukraine has proven that the age of industrial warfare is still here. The massive consumption of equipment, vehicles and ammunition requires a large-scale industrial base for resupply – quantity still has a quality of its own.” It  concludes, “US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine.”  

Yes, the US is not an artillery-based army like Russia’s. But it still has low stocks of almost everything for an extended war against a near-peer rather than a weak economy or a terrorist group. It ‘plans’ to fight a ‘just in time’ conflict…. against the country which provides much of its industrial supply chain(!), as tensions continue to rise in the Taiwan Strait.

There might be a Biden-Xi call ahead, but it risks ending like the financial tweet“I’M IN THE PROCESS OF DECISION-MAKING ON CHINA TARIFF EASING. *BIDEN FALLS OFF BIKE WHILE COMING TO STOP, SAYS HE’S OKAY* can’t make this up!”  

Perhaps the US president suddenly realized his bike would be marginally cheaper without tariffs, but would come at a massive geopolitical cost given China will, yet again, have given up nothing at all for that trade benefit; and that Yellen reiterating on TV there is no recession to come, and that some Trump tariffs on China were “not strategic” –as she also talks about “friend-shoring”– just shows she does not understand ‘strategy’; or ‘inflation’; or ‘recession’; or ‘financial crisis’.

On Friday, Putin also defiantly stated the West’s leaders are living in Lalaland, and “Such a detachment from reality, from the demands of society, will inevitably lead to a surge of populism and the growth of radical movements, to serious social and economic changes, to degradation, and in the near future, to a change of elites.”  Presumably he foresaw the French parliamentary election results, where President Macron looks set to lose his majority, with over half of the seats likely to be held by the far-right of Le Pen and the far-left of Melenchon. Good luck with technocratic pension reforms on that basis.

So, what do we do? Well, as Hastings argues, more of a focus on how to push back against Blut und Eisen, which means the West remembering how to ride the geopolitical grand strategy bicycle. Yet the US president can apparently neither walk-up stairs nor ride a bicycle without falling over, and much of the US economy is more worried about “Basis und Points.”

As I have argued, much higher US rates are still a huge geoeconomic weapon, even if they bifurcate an already bifurcating world. Much lower US rates and QE in the face of deliberate supply constraints are a great power self-destruct mechanism. And yet add high unemployment to our current economic misery, as the Fed’s Waller suggests it might need to rise to a 4.5% rate, and we better have an economic arsenal in our pocket ready.

I suspect, as with Europe, we get rate hikes and QEand then we need trade surpluses to ensure currencies don’t collapse, which means national security/industrial/social policy. On which, note it was the realpolitik mercantilist Bismarck who also introduced state public pensions.

Hastings op-ed stresses, “The historic challenge for the West is to prove [Putin’s Ukraine] calculation mistaken, because its success would deal a shocking blow to the cause of democracy, freedom, and justice in the 21st century. Zelenskiy must rely upon Churchill’s dogged policy: KBO (“Keep Buggering On”) and pray that something will turn up.”

Yet Churchill’s heirs rely upon doggedly playing silly buggers and Western markets pray that lower rates will turn up. That, as we face years of war and the UN warning of “hell on earth”, as we ‘march towards starvation’, or a “shocking blow to the cause of democracy, freedom, and justice in the 21st century.”

Surely better to remember how to ride the Western bicycle?

END

Rabobank: We Are Heading For More Crashes, Bangs, Wallops

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 10:35 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Crash! Bang! Wallop! What a Daily!

Today’s obscure Alan Partridge title reference was inspired by a Tweet from The Economist’s @Birdyword in response to @CathieDWood arguing, “Volcker doubled the Fed Funds from 10% to 20% in less than a year. Powell’s Fed has increased the funds rate 7-fold in the lasty year and is pointing to another double from here. Its moves already are more draconian than Volcker’s”.

His simple rebuttal was a screenshot from the ‘Father Ted’ episode where Father Crilly uses plastic toy cows to try to explain to idiot Father Dougal the difference between ‘small’ and ‘far away’.

Wood’s ARKK fund is -9.8% on the last month, -59% year-to-date, and -75% from its all-time peak: in short, it is now both small(er) AND far away from its best. Yet clearly from her tweet, Wood does not get the punchline of real Fed funds still being highly negative (vs. CPI) regardless of how much it has risen from very, very small levels in percentage terms. We are very, very far from Volcker territory.

We are nonetheless heading for more crashes, bangs, wallops –and corresponding Dailies– because of how much more financialised and deindustrialised the US economy is now than under Tall Paul. As the US comes back from holiday, let’s see how overly-leveraged, fictitious-over-productive-capital markets handle the increasing talk of a back-to-back 75bps from the Fed next month as a starter.

Tellingly, commodities are on the back foot. For all of the talk of ‘China’ and ‘stimulus’ and ‘property rebound’, which China’s own property experts CRIC refute, its markets saw a plunge in key metals and energy prices yesterday. More broadly, energy is also not trying to pop back up again yet. However, overall commodities still look to be more a ‘wallop’ than a ‘crash’ – at least until US rates get to a high enough level to flush out speculation and hoarding in a big ‘bang’… and we finally get to see how much real demand there is, and how much is ‘small vs. far away’.

Indeed, as noted yesterday, Europe –like China– is plunging back into coal production again as Russian gas-flows tail off rapidly. The EU is chastising individual European countries for this backsliding, which makes sense in terms of a green strategy using future technology and future inputs, but little in terms of being able to keep the lights on this winter with current ones.

The US is also flailing for a response to high gasoline and diesel prices, and we have now seen two floated solutions: 1) subsidy cards for consumers – stymied by the US not having the chips to even make them, which speaks volumes about supply-side problems; and 2) that the US –like China– should start a state oil refinery to reverse the 5% drop in capacity since Covid, but would still take years to happen, even if were politically ‘acceptable’, which it isn’t.

The food situation, linked to energy, looks even worse. The Ukrainian think tank The Centre for Defence Strategies claims Russian soldiers are forcing Ukrainian farmers to sell 70% of their crops to Russian buyers at a 90% discount, or are preventing it being transported to areas still controlled by Kyiv; in effect using hunger as a weapon of war. But you don’t have to listen to the Ukrainians on this – you can listen to the Russians. At their ‘Davos’ in St Petersburg, we just heard Margarita Simonyan state, “all our hope is in the famine.” This “cynical joke” heard “across Moscow” means the famine will start now: and they will lift the sanctions and be friends with us, because they realize it’s impossible not to be friends with us.”

Yes, President Putin said otherwise at the same venue recently. But people say lots of things and don’t mean them. Like they won’t invade Ukraine. Or ‘Build Back Better’. Or they won’t militarise man-made islands in the South China Sea. Or they won’t interfere with US energy production.

For both energy and food, the northern hemisphere winter is coming. And peace is not. Indeed, Lithuania’s land blockade of the rail route to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, entirely ignored by the world media at first, now picked up on, only escalates tensions. It remains to be seen what the response will be, but if it isn’t military then it will be like-for-like economic war: less gas, less food, more looking the other way and whistling as chaos then ensues. This isn’t a bug, it’s a feature.

Meanwhile, geopolitics is becoming predictably unpredictable:

  • Europe is full of problems, as is the UK, and both are raising problems for each other.
  • Turkey and Greece are at serious loggerheads.
  • Africa is seeing less European influence just as its resources become more vital to the EU.
  • US ally Colombia voted in a former rebel leftist as president, shifting LatAm further from the US orbit – the next key election is Brazil on 2 October.
  • Israel will call new elections for 25 October, which will likely produce unstable/caretaker Prime Minister Lapid or a comeback for Netanyahu.
  • There is a flurry of activity in the Middle East centred around Iran, more of whose nuclear scientists are suddenly dying.
  • Tensions in the Taiwan Straits are escalating as China claims they are not international waters, just after announcing its armed forces can operate abroad outside of declarations of war.
  • The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) goes into effect today, blocking all imports to the US originating in whole or part from Xinjiang – though if/how this will be enforced remains to be seen.
  • In ASEAN, the Philippine Senate just adjourned its last session without ratifying the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement due to objections that accession will harm the country’s farmers.
  • Even Kazakhstan and Russia just blocked each other’s oil and coal exports.

Against this befuddling supply-side backdrop is there a way to raise rates without a crash (bang wallop)? No. But if rates aren’t raised, is there any way to avoid a different kind of inflationary crash (bang wallop)? No. Central banks are in trouble whatever happens.

Tellingly, the AFR reports Treasurer Chalmers has overridden RBA Governor Lowe’s wishes and will appoint a panel of independent experts to review it, including a monetary policy expert from overseas. (NB, that won’t be me.) The review may consider the composition of the RBA board, the appointment processes, and the 2-3% CPI target. The AFR states, “some observers believe the board should have more professional economists to challenge the governor and deputy governor on technical monetary policy issues.” I would personally hope they have fewer economists and more logistics experts, and perhaps even a general. Then again, “some officials are concerned that any move to amend the legislation would risk the Greens in the Senate trying to add climate change and inequality to the bank’s mandate.”

The RBA is already conducting an internal review of its Covid policies, such as the 0.1% cash rate it pledged not to raise until 2024, as today Lowe stated 4% was unlikely but not entirely out of the question by year-end, and that inflation will remain above target “for years”. There are also questions over A$350bn in QE and A$188bn in cheap loans to commercial banks. Yet the RBA is also under attack for its claims of “stronger upward pressure” on wage growth, a view originating from its liaison program, which is criticised as statistically imprecise.

I think the RBA had dug itself into a hole whereby it needed evidence that wages growth was starting to accelerate in order to satisfy its precondition for starting to raise rates, that underlying inflation was sustainably within the 2-3% target range,” says former ANZ chief economist Saul Eslake. You mean a central bank might not ‘follow the science’?! Then again, the minimum wage did just rise 5.2%, and today’s minutes underlined that “The Board remains committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia returns to the target over time.”

Meanwhile, in China we may have a significant policy shift too. A PBOC notice yesterday flagged changes to “give full play to the role of cross-border RMB settlement business in serving the real economy, promoting trade and investment facilitation, and support the development of new forms of foreign trade.”  This includes that domestic banks can cooperate with non-bank payment institutions and legally qualified clearing institutions that have obtained internet payment business licenses for cross-border RMB clearance, i.e., cross-border e-commerce, market procurement trade, overseas warehouses and foreign trade services, and consumers who purchase goods or services. Maybe it’s nothing: and maybe it’s warming up for the use of e-RMB to trade across internet apps outside of SWIFT.

I don’t think any major central bank is going to emerge from what is about to happen with its reputation enhanced or its current operating parameters intact. Very few are going to make it into the Ark: most will look like ARKK.

That prospect is neither small nor far away: markets should prepare for the associated crashes, bangs, and wallops.

END

7. OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Oil Jumps, Crack Spread Near Record After Market Ignores Latest Idiocy From Biden Admin

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 09:50 AM

Last week we joked that in its relentless crusade to do the impossible and put a cap on oil (and/or gas) prices, “every day the White House proposes some increasingly more ridiculous and desperate “solution” to high gas prices”, as follows: Wednesday: windfall tax; Thursday: oil fuel export limits; Friday: rebate cards

Then just in case the list of proposals wasn’t ridiculous enough, the past 24 hours brought two new, and even more idiotic proposals from the administration where the 79-year-old teleprompter reader can’t even ride a bicycle:

First, on Monday, President Biden – who probably was not riding a bicycle at the time – said that he was considering seeking a gas tax holiday to ease high fuel prices“I hope I have a decision based on the data I’m looking for by the end of the week,” the president told reporters in Delaware. Needless to say, even if Congress were to pass the needed legislation, the impact on gas prices would be minimal as the Federal gas tax is only 18.4 cents per gallon, and the bulk of taxation is at the state level.

Second, and just when you thought it couldn’t get any dumber, Janet Yellen (who together with Jay Powell, will soon be thrown under the hyperinflationay bus to take the fall for the economic devastation unleashed by the Biden admin) said talks are continuing on how the US and its allies “might cap the price of Russian oil exports, possibly through a plan that offers exceptions to the European ban on insuring Russian oil shipments.”

“We are continuing to have productive conversations, today and with our partners and allies around the world with how to further restrict energy revenues to Russia while preventing spillover effects to the global economy,” Yellen said during a press conference in Toronto alongside Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.

“We are talking about price caps or a price exception that would enhance and strengthen recent and proposed energy restrictions by Europe, the United States, the UK and others,” she said.

Word salad aside – because while most western countries have banned imports of Russian oil while the European Union has agreed to prohibit seaborne imports of Russian crude in six months, India and China are importing more Russian oil than ever and adding billions to Russia’s treasury every single day, helping push the Russian ruble to the highest level in almost a decade – there is zero chance of any “price caps” being successfully implemented.

We know this because Italy, that most clueless of European sovereigns decided to also chime in.

On Tuesday, Energy Minister Roberto Cingolani said that an Italian proposal to cap natural gas prices in Europe is gaining traction across the region as countries increasingly see it as the “only solution” to soaring costs.  Italy has recommended that European Union member states put a limit on the price of gas imports from Russia to help curb inflation in the bloc, but nations including Germany have shown skepticism.

Truly a brilliant idea… until we read the following quote making it clear just how “competent” Italy is in its comprehension of how the energy markets works: “Gas prices are rising not for a physical reason,” Cingolani said at a conference in Rome. “The price is rising just because someone somewhere from a keyboard has decided so.”

There’s more: Imposing a price cap “seems to be the only sustainable solution,” Cingolani said. Such a move would avoid the risk that “someone, waking up some morning, could put forward a crazy gas-price level.”

Of course, we can only imagine that Cingolani wasn’t around the last time price caps were attempted. Let’s just say the outcome was…. suboptimal.

This relentless barrage of idiocy has made two things clear: i) Western governments are powerless to do anything to lower oil prices, assuring the Kremlin’s windfall extends indefinitely; ii) the stupidity will only accelerate indefinitely.

Realizing that both Europe and the US are now in the “let’s throw any old shit at the wall and hope it sticks” phase, someone somewhere with a keyboard decided to push the buy button, and oil – which tumbled on Friday amid fears that a created by “serious people” was imminent – jumped higher….

…. and we are confident it will recover all recent losses in the next few hours, not least of all because as Bloomberg’s chief energy reporter Javier Blas notes, refined products (diesel, above all) are already leading the recovery from Friday’s sell-off, with US WTI 3-2-1 refining margins surges above $61 a barrel, flirting with a new all-time high as “Already US refiners are running their plants, particularly in GoM, at very high rates.”

This morning’s upgrade of XOM from $115 to $125 by Credit Suisse won’t hurt either.

So is the Biden admin doomed and is there nothing it can do to ease gas prices? Well, there is one thing it could do… only on Monday Yellen rejected the idea that restarting the Keystone XL pipeline project would help increase supplies of oil and lower prices because it would take years to accomplish:

“I don’t see it as a short-term measure to address the current situation, and longer-term we remain committed to our climate change objectives, but, you know, it’s really up to the president to consider,” she said.

Biden, who campaigned on an ambitious climate platform, canceled the Keystone XL pipeline — which would run between the US and Canada — hours after taking office, after a record “81 million Americans voted for him”. The project was under construction when Biden revoked its presidential permit. It would have transported more than 800,000 barrels of oil a day.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA/PAKISTAN

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0548 UP  0.0032 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN

USA/ YEN 135.95   UP .852 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2255 UP   0.0008

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.21 POINTS UP 0.26%

 Hang Sang CLOSED  UP 395.68 PTS OR 1.87%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.38%    // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 395.69 PTS OR 1.68%   

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.71 PTS UP 0.26% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.38% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 475.09 OR 1.40%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1833.30

silver:$21.64

USA dollar index early TUESAY morning: 104.91  DOWN 3  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

 TUES MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUES NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.81%  UP 13  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.332% UP 11     AND 2/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.83%// UP 10   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.78  DOWN 7   points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISESS TO +1.755%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0559 UP  0.0042    or 42 basis points

USA/Japan: 136.12 UP 1.023  OR YEN DOWN  102  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2278 UP 0.0025 OR 25  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP .0060 OR 60 BASIS pts  to 1.299236

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..UP 6.6806  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.6869

TURKISH LIRA:  17.36  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.3332

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  3.274% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.334 UP 5 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 104.005 DOWN 26   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 26.03 PTS OR  0.37%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 25.73  POINTS OR 0.19%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 42.92 PTS OR 0.73% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 48.50 OR 0.59%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 70.88 PTS OR  0.82%

WTI Oil price 111.76   12: EST

Brent Oil:  114.40  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  53.84  UP  1 & 18/10        RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.755

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0534 UP   .0016   OR  DOWN 16 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.273 UP .0025  or  25 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.56 UP 1.457//YEN DOWN 146 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2914 DOWN 78 (CDN dollar UP 78 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 110.58

Brent OIL:  114.49

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.322 UP 7 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.387  UP 9  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.35

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  53/75   UP  1  & 85/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 641.47 PTS OR 2.15 

NASDAQ 100 UP 280.77 PTS OR 2/49%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 30.06 DOWN 0.97 PTS (3.13)%

GLD: 170.63 DOWN /.64PTS OR 0.37%

SLV/ 19.98 DOWN .0 PTS OR 0%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Big-Tech, Bitcoin, & Bond Yields Surge Higher As Macro Malaise Continues

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Ugly home sales data and a collapse in the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index pushed the US Macro Surprise Index down to fresh cycle lows. Judging from the last decade or so, the current level may be ‘as bad as it gets’ as analysts adjust their own forecasts down from over-optimism, but as March 2020 shows, sometimes even that can be overshot…

Source: Bloomberg

After the worst week for stocks in over two years, US equity futures drifted higher yesterday (with US cash markets closed) and then surged higher at the cash open this morning, led by Nasdaq. We do note that late-day weakness pushed Small Caps to reverse all of their post-cash-open gains by the close (but was still up strongly from Friday’s close)…

Today’s rip extended a major short-squeeze around Friday’s huge OpEx, but we note that the ‘most shorted’ stocks stalled their ramp today after filling last week’s gap down…

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasuries were sold with the long-end dramatically underperforming with 2Y up only around 1.5bps while 30Y yields rose over 10bps…

Source: Bloomberg

European bond spreads have stalled their post-ECB-emergency promises compression, hovering at around one-month lows (still quite ‘fragmented’ from traditional norms)…

Source: Bloomberg

And if you’re not worried about EU defragmentation, then the US TED spread blowing out should raise your fear level that something is going on behind the scenes…

Source: Bloomberg

Rather notably, broker credit spreads are exploding wider…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar has limped very modestly lower since Friday’s close…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, the Ruble soared to its highest relative to the dollar in 7 years…

Source: Bloomberg

A really ugly weekend for crypto saw Bitcoin puked down to a $17,000 handle on Saturday before staging a strong comeback above $21,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Also of note that is that the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq has dropped significantly…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold is lower from Friday’s close, back below $1850…

Oil prices are modestly higher from Friday’s close but were unable to hold above $110 (WTI)…

European NatGas remains dramatically decoupled from US NatGas but both were relatively stable over the last two days…

And some good news…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfcmVmc3JjX3Nlc3Npb24iOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9yZXN1bHRfbWlncmF0aW9uXzEzOTc5Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InR3ZWV0X3Jlc3VsdCIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0Zndfc2Vuc2l0aXZlX21lZGlhX2ludGVyc3RpdGlhbF8xMzk2MyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJpbnRlcnN0aXRpYWwiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2V4cGVyaW1lbnRzX2Nvb2tpZV9leHBpcmF0aW9uIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6MTIwOTYwMCwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd191c2VyX2ZvbGxvd19pbnRlbnRfMTQ0MDYiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiZm9sbG93IiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1538902821306777607&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fbig-tech-bitcoin-bond-yields-surge-higher-macro-malaise-continues&sessionId=bf6c205cbd078ed6b2e501c3ba4dfc7e96556a08&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=b45a03c79d4c1%3A1654150928467&width=550px

Finally, some context for that has happened so far this year. Since the pre-COVID highs, global stock and bond capital markets are up around $9 trillion still (but have lost around $36 trillion from their highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

And global central bank balance sheets are up over $10 trillion since that time…

Source: Bloomberg

So, all in all, a giant f**king waste of time to delay the inevitable. No wonder they need another crisis.

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

ii) USA DATA

US Existing Home Sales Tumble To 2-Year Low In May, NAR Warns ‘Worse To Come’

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 10:07 AM

After April’s bloodbath in new home sales (and existing and pending to a lesser extent), May’s housing data deluge is about to kick off with what analysts expect to be a 3.7% MoM drop in existing home sales. In fact – and rather surprisingly – home sales ‘only’ fell 3.4% MoM in May (April data was revised slightly lower)…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 4th straight monthly decline (and 5th drop in the last 6 months) in existing home sales and the lowest SAAR since June 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Further sales declines should be expected in the upcoming months given housing affordability challenges from the sharp rise in mortgage rates this year,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“Nonetheless, homes priced appropriately are selling quickly and inventory levels still need to rise substantially – almost doubling – to cool home price appreciation and provide more options for home buyers.”

The median selling price rose 14.8% from a year earlier, to a record $407,600.

First-time buyers accounted for 27% of US sales last month, down from 31% a year ago, and underscoring the affordability challenges that have been pricing many Americans out of the market.

And bear in mind, this is May’s data – before mortgage rates really started to accelerate higher.

Source: Bloomberg

If sales catch-down to that, prepare for the political pressure to pile up.

END

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iii)a.  USA economic stories

The story continues for drought stricken Lake Mead

(zerohedge)

Drought-Stricken Lake Mead Less Than 150 Feet From “Dead Pool”

TUESDAY, JUN 21, 2022 – 02:45 PM

The surface of Lake Mead, North America’s largest artificial reservoir, now stands at 1044 feet above sea level and is dropping fast. If Lake Mead’s water level falls another 149 feet, a dangerous level known as a “dead pool” could wreak havoc across Southwestern US. 

Since the beginning of March, Lake Mead has dropped about 23 feet, and compared with the 5-year trend, the reservoir’s water levels are well below average, at the lowest point since the lake was filled nearly a century ago. 

A graph might not do justice to visualizing just how fast the water level has fallen. So here are three pictures of a sunken speedboat in the lake and the corresponding date. Just in May, the boat was partially submerged. Now there’s no water. 

If Lake Mead were to keep dropping, it could be a couple of years until a danger zone at 895 feet is reached, which is the point water would no longer pass through Hoover Dam to supply California, Arizona, and Mexico. Below 895 feet, the lake would be considered a “dead pool.” 

For more context of what’s happened over the last three decades as a megadrought grips the US West, here’s a view of the spillway of the Hoover Dam in 1983 versus 2021. 

Weather satellites have captured an absolutely stunning view of the lake rapidly shrinking in the last two years. 

A lake observer on YouTuber shows how the water level has dangerously dropped in the last two weeks.

Last week, Tanya Trujillo, the Interior Department’s assistant secretary for water and science, said in a speech, “We have an urgent need to act now.”

If no drastic action is taken and the lake hits dead pool level (read: The Real Deadpool: America’s Drought Is Worse Than You Think”), millions of people in Arizona, California, Nevada, and parts of Mexico could experience devastating water shortages. 

Wild boars running loose

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:28 AM (9 minutes ago)
to

I suppose that the so called 1% are of the opinion that only they know how to screw things up and blame others in the hopes of balance. They should read and learn from history or become a faded chapter of time. 

With the likes Janet Yellen who is a clown show at the US Treasury, who is failing in her public discussion of today’s U.S. inflation which is framed in a way that avoids blaming the 8.2 percent rise in consumer prices on the Biden Administration’s New Cold War sanctions on Russian oil, gas and agriculture, or on oil companies and other sectors using these sanctions as an excuse to charge monopoly prices as if America has not continued to buy Russian diesel oil, as if fracking has not picked up and as if corn is not being turned into biofuel. Truthfully so far there has been no disruption in US supply. We are simply dealing with monopoly tariff by the oil companies using the anti-Russian sanctions as an excuse that an oil shortage will soon develop for the United States and indeed for the entire world economy. Indeed, the whole consuming world is paying foolishly to enrich producing nations and at the same time depriving local economies of currency to fuel local businesses. It is a fact that buying your own energy in your own currency makes a nation stronger and more prosperous. Something foolish and dishonest leaders never want to admit, assuming they are smart enough to understand. This a sad commentary on political leadership. It is the same way emerging economies are denied refineries because too much wealth would take away from those who wish to control such wealth. Secondary production of any raw material adds wealth t the country of origin. 

Covid’s shutdown of the U.S. and foreign economies and foreign trade also is not acknowledged as disrupting supply lines and raising shipping costs and hence import prices. Why? Because it called for a admission of error and politicians are unable to admit they are ever wrong; therefore it must be teh great unwashed, the public who is to blame. Thus the  entire blame for inflation is placed on wage earners, and the response is to make them the victims of the coming austerity, as if their wages are responsible for bidding up oil prices, food prices and other prices resulting from the crisis. The reality is that they are too debt-strapped to be spendthrifts. While reality is quite different as most wage earners fall behind inflation as wages never keep up. Ever heard of employe’s wages tied to inflation? 

As the United States and other western nations become more debt-ridden, in America for instance, more than 50 percent of the value of U.S. real estate already is held by mortgage bankers. That means that homeowners are left with only a minority share in the value of their homes; most is owed to their banks. The remaining homeowners’ equity – what they own, net of their mortgage debt – has fallen even faster than home ownership rates have declined. This is alarming trend as future spending habits will conditioned by this reality. This is likely the same in other western economies. And this will fundamentally change teh nature of western lifestyles for a foreseeable future. Perhaps even permanently. 

Fundamentally, the Western economies are facing a systemic crisis. The complacency that the reserve-currency-based US economy is impervious to ballooning debt to its’ own demise; that the petrodollar system compels the entire world to purchase dollars to finance their needs; that the flood of cheap Chinese consumer goods and cheap energy from Russia and Gulf States would keep inflation at bay; that interest rate hikes will cure structural inflation ( but this time it is not structural or classical) and, above all, that the consequences of taking a trade-war hammer to a complex supply chain network system in the world economy thinking it can be managed exposes naive understanding of supply chains and global trade while ignoring capital flows and their inherent freedom to shift.

 With such thinking only dark clouds will bear and sunshine will truly become difficult to find in the mess unfolding. The fixes will prove much more complex taking longer while societal change will render its’ price.

END

END

iii b USA//inflation stories/log jams //SHORTAGES//etc/

end

 

iv)swamp stories

end

King Report

The King Report June 21 Issue 6784Independent View of the News
  The 0.25% peg on JGBs broke on Friday morning in Japan (Thursday night in US).  JGBs hit 0.265% (highest since January 2016) ahead of the BoJ Communique release. 
 
ESUs sank 12 handles on the JGB peg break; but someone manipulated ESUs 19.75 higher in 11 minutes.
 
As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy.  But, the BoJ Communique was more dovish than expected.  There was one dissenting vote – Kataoka, who wanted more easing! 
 
Bank of Japan Statement on Monetary Policy
The Bank will purchase a necessary amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) without setting an upper limit so that 10-year JGB yields will remain at around zero percent…the Bank will support
financing, mainly of firms, and maintain stability in financial markets, and will not hesitate to
take additional easing measures if necessary; it also expects short- and long-term policy interest
rates to remain at their present or lower levels…   https://t.co/4C52vqvdsG
 
The Nikkei sank as much as 2.69% (closed -1.77%); the yen tumbled as much as 2.44% vs. the dollar.
 
Bank of Japan maintains ultra-low interest rates, but warns it is closely watching the…yen movesBOJ keeps interest rate targets unchangedGov Kuroda rules out near-term rate hikeKuroda says yen’s sharp fall undesirable, bad for economyBOJ ramps up efforts to defend 0.25% yield capThe yen fell as much as 1.9% and bond yields fell after the decision, which was widely expected but disappointed some market players who speculated the BOJ could give into market forces and tweak its yield cap policy… the BOJ won’t tolerate a rise in the 10-year yield above its implicit 0.25% cap, and had no plan to increase the upper limit despite pressure from rising global yields.  https://t.co/GS2e1WU7gw
 
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: Policy Has Tightened a Lot. Is It Enough?
Unfortunately, I know of no theoretical framework that can tell us how much we will need to tighten long real rates to get inflation back to target in a reasonable time frame
    While I supported increasing the federal funds rate by 75 basis points at this week’s meeting, and could support another such move in July, this uncertainty about how much tightening will be needed leads me to be cautious about too much more front-loading
https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2022/policy-has-tightened-a-lot-is-it-enough-an-update
 
May US industrial production: +0.2% m/m, +0.4% expected. April revised to 1.4% from 1.1%.  May Manufacturing -0.1%, +0.3% expected.  Utility (+1.1%) and mining (1.3%) production kept May Industrial Production from registering a decline.  The May LEI is the expected -0.4%; but April was revised to -0.4% from -0.3%.
 
The WH and Dem panic over inflation’s effect on the midterm elections is escalating.  On Friday, Team Biden leftists proposed issuing ‘rebate cards’ for gasoline to Americans.  However, within a few hours of the leak of the rebate card proposal, hapless Team Biden aides nixed the plan due to chip shortages.
 
White House considering sending gas rebate cards to Americans
Biden administration emphasized its willing to consider any and all solutions to ongoing inflation crisis
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/white-house-considering-gas-rebate-cards-americans
 
Soaring gas prices lead White House aides back to brainstorming
Administration officials look at fuel rebates, emergency powers if diesel shortages materialize
    Aides had found that shortages in the U.S. chip industry would make it hard to produce enough rebate cards…  https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/06/17/biden-gas-white-house/
 
Defensive asset allocators were in the market again on Friday.  Their presence hindered the upward manipulation of ESUs and key stocks to squeeze expiring June call options.
 
Safe-haven and defensive buying also boosted bonds.  USUs traded wildly in a large range from their opening at 18:00 ET on Friday night until they tumbled to a low of 133 14/32 at 10:20 ET.  They then soared to 135 1/32 by the European close.
 
ESUs traded in concert with USUs until the USU bottom at 10:20 ET: ESUs hit a bottom at 10:48 ET, and the ESU rally into the European close was weaker than the USU surge.  After the European close, USUs kept plodding higher; ESUs retreated into negative territory and then went inert.
 
Fangs were strong all morning because they are a favored vehicle for the expiry squeeze.
 
ESUs commenced a rally at 13:00 ET.  It was time to start forcing stuff higher and squeeze June calls on SPY and select Fangs.  ESUs jumped 24 handles in 13 minutes.  After a 26-handle retreat over 24 minutes, ESUs rallied 23 handles.  They then rolled over at 14:25 ET.  The pre-last hour rally pushed ESUs one handle higher than the early afternoon high.  ESUs quickly rolled over.  AT 15:07 ET, ESUs commenced a tumble.  At the time, SPY June 365 puts had volume of 285,000, 100k more than the highest call volume.  SPY was at 367.56.  The big bets were on the downside.
 
When SPY got near 365, buyers pushed ESUs 25 handles higher in 12 minutes.  The rally then stalled with SPY oscillating around 467.50, the midpoint between the 365 put (298k volume at the time) and the 370 call (320,000 volume at the time).  ESUs declined modestly into the close.  SPY closed at 365.82.
 
Commodities got crushed on Friday due to global recession angst.  Some analysts on Friday opined that the US is already in recession. 
 
@YuanTalks: China’s most-traded Sept Iron Ore futures contract in Dalian, tumbles by another nearly 6% on Fri night to drop below 800 yuan/tonne mark and hit 790 yuan/tonne, the lowest since May 19.
https://twitter.com/YuanTalks/status/1537822124177784832
 
Like the idiocy of defining bear markets by 20% declines, misguided financial writers and pundits define recession as back-to-back quarters of negative GDP.  This is totally wrong!  The NBER is the official arbiter of recessions.  Its recession criteria has NOTHING to do with back-to-back quarters of GDP.
 
NBER: Business Cycle Dating
The NBER’s definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—as somewhat interchangeable. That is, while each criterion needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another…
    The determination of the months of peaks and troughs is based on a range of monthly measures of aggregate real economic activity published by the federal statistical agencies. These include real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, employment as measured by the household survey, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes, and industrial production. There is no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions. In recent decades, the two measures we have put the most weight on are real personal income less transfers and nonfarm payroll employment
    Two measures that are important in the determination of quarterly peaks and troughs, but that are not available monthly, are the expenditure-side and income-side estimates of real gross domestic product (GDP and GDI). The committee also considers quarterly averages of the monthly indicators described above, particularly payroll employment…
    The committee’s approach to determining the dates of turning points is retrospective. In making its peak and trough announcements, it waits until sufficient data are available to avoid the need for major revisions to the business cycle chronology… (Markets will sign recession well before the NBER rules.)
https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating
 
Team Biden has changed its collective mind again on The Big Guy’s meeting with the Saudi ruler.
 
Biden won’t meet Saudi crown prince, says talks part of broader meeting (More ineptness!)
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-says-he-wont-meet-with-saudi-crown-prince-talks-part-broader-meeting-2022-06-17/
 
@RNCResearch: Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm says (Sunday on CNN) it’s “her understanding” that Biden will have a one-on-one meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.  On Friday, Biden said, “I’m not going to meet with MBS.”   https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1538530891391287296
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Fangs, techs, and bonds rallied sharply; the S&P 500 Index rallied modestly
Stocks are historically oversold
 
Negative aspects of previous session
The DJIA, DJTA, DJUA declined
Defensive Asset Allocators are out in force
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Commodities got crushed
With an estimated $3.2T to $3.4 T of June derivates expired, what happened next?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3673.14
Previous session High/Low3707.71; 3636.87
 
Biden aides ‘tapped out’ as White House faces staff shake up
The White House has faced a slew of departures recently… “The burnout is real. It might not be the ideal time to leave with everything going on, but it’s the right time.”… https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3526673-biden-aides-tapped-out-as-white-house-faces-staff-shake-up/
 
@jasongoepfert: More than 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 declined Thursday. It’s the 5th time in the past 7 days.  Since 1928, there have been exactly 0 precedents. This is the most overwhelming display of selling in history.
 
Biden Team Negotiates Fresh Economic Plan as Inflation Antidote
The contours of a potential deal remain under negotiation, but the package would likely include capping the price of insulin — a key medicine for diabetics — and federal investments in both clean energy and fossil fuels, according to people briefed on the talks. It would also further reduce the budget deficit and boost taxes on the wealthy, corporations or both, they said… (DOA due to tax hikes in election year)
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/biden-team-negotiates-fresh-economic-plan-as-inflation-antidote
 
@RNCResearch: Joe Biden is taking off at 11:00AM tomorrow (Friday) for a weekend at his Delaware beach houseIt will be his fourth straight weekend in Delaware.
 
Biden spots photographs, breaks into a fast walk/slow jog to exhibit his fitness.  He regularly does this.
https://twitter.com/RealMacReport/status/1537856504304488450
 
Biden, 79, FALLS OFF his bike during ride near his Rehoboth Beach home but reassures reporters ‘I’m good’… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10929963/Biden-79-FALLS-bike-ride-near-Rehoboth-Beach-home.html
 
@jonboy79788314: Joe Biden falling off his bike no joke. Just happened at Rehoboth Beach (video)
https://twitter.com/jonboy79788314/status/1538165572457971718?s=21&t=xwoaBczFE5X_zqZqSrdIYA
 
Biden’s tricked-out bike loaded with extras — and one caused his fall
The pedals’ toe cageswhich Biden, 79, blamed for causing his fall…   https://trib.al/2Wb4f4Q
 
Will the pics of Biden’s tumble have the same deleterious effect as the rabbit attack on Jimmy Carter?  Comedians and cartoonists had a grand time with Carter vs the killer rabbit.
 
WaPo: Jimmy Carter was once attacked by a rabbit. On a boat.
It was August 1979, and President Jimmy Carter was taking some time off before the 1980 campaign began in earnest. He was fishing on a lake near his home in Plains, Ga., when he was attacked by a killer rabbit… though many doubted Carter, the White House photographer… snapped a picture showing the incident… https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/03/09/jimmy-carter-was-once-attacked-by-a-rabbit-on-a-boat/
 
NY Post’s@mirandadevine: When President Gerald Ford slipped on a slippery step, no one let him forget it. It was defining. Joe Biden falls and trips far more often and it’s not much mentioned.
 
Thousands of cattle suddenly die in Kansas, officials say. What’s to blame? (Up to 10,000 or more)
https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/kansas/article262574297.html
 
SPAIN’S GOVERNING SOCIALISTS LOSE REGIONAL ELECTION: TVE POLL – BBG
 
France’s Emmanuel Macron set to lose majority
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party could win as much as 100 seats… A newly formed alliance of left, far-left and green parties has come second, with Marine Le Pen’s far-right party in third… https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61859881
 
Buttigieg says feds have power to force airlines to hire more workers amid travel delays (Fascism)
Travel disruptions have become more common following the coronavirus pandemic (Worker absenteeism)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/buttigieg-power-force-airlines-workers-travel-delays
 
FT on Saturday: Fed official supports 0.75 percentage point rate rise in July
Christopher Waller expects inflation data to warrant a back-to-back jumbo increase
https://www.ft.com/content/85f9d719-ed62-451b-9506-f3f0eb559874
 
Appearing on CBS’ “Face the Nation” (Sunday), Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said“It is going to take a while to get inflation back to 2%.” https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1538549772721836033
 
@RNCResearch: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (Sunday morning on ABC): The economy has “been growing at a very rapid rate.” The economy shrank last quarter. Q1 (GDP -1.4%)
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1538522777564635139
 
May German PPI surged to 33.6% y/y (1.6% mm/), the highest level ever recorded since 1949.
 
Tax the rich and pass a prescription drug bill: White House Economic Advisor Brian Deese proposes ways to make a ‘real difference’ on ‘unacceptable’ inflation levels
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10931869/Brian-Deese-says-taxing-rich-prescription-drug-cost-reform-ease-inflation.html
 
Monday Markets
Nikkei -0.74%, Hang Seng +0.42%, CSI 300 +0.5%, Shanghai Comp -0.04%, Shenzhen Comp +1.27%
Euro Stoxx 50 +0.91%, FTSE +1.5%, CAC +.64%, DAX +1.06%, IBEX 1.72%, MIB 0.99%,
ESUs: 3725.00 H, 3661.50 L, 3716.00 C, +40.25; USUs: 135 H, 133 29/32 L, 134 3/32 C, -18/32
Commodities: WTI Oil 110.27, +0.71, Gasoline +5.3 cents, Gold 1840.70, +0.10; Dollar Index -.149
 
Today – After expiration, professional traders make significant adjustments early in the ensuing session.
 
When stocks have had ugly springs, they have tended to make a trading bottom near the end of Q2.  The resultant rally gets a boost on 4th of July buying.  Then, the usual suspects herald the advent of ‘the summer rally’.  The stocks that have suffered the biggest damage in Q2 tend to rally robust.
 
This implies that Fangs could be ripe for a significant bounce.  Some Fangs have not breached their May lows (GOOG, AMZN, NFLX, TSLA) or have made minor new lows (NVDA) while the S&P 500 Index blew through its May low.
 
The key for today should be the presence or absence of defensive asset allocators.  They have been in the market for the past few sessions.
 
Bloomberg @business on Saturday: Bitcoin plunged through several closely watched price levels, sinking as much as 13% to below $18,000 in a record-breaking rout
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bitcoin-s-cascading-losses-accelerate-in-record-breaking-rout/ar-AAYBDFw
 
Will the turmoil in cryptos force entities to liquidate other assets?  Someone must be in trouble.
 
ESMs are -1.25 and USUs are -5/32 (From Monday’s closes) at 20:20 ET.
 
Expected economic data: St. Louis Fed Pres Bullard discusses inflation & interest rates 12:45 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4117; 100-day MA: 4269; 150-day MA: 4398; 200-day MA: 4421
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,808; 100-day MA: 33,585; 150-day MA: 34,273; 200-day MA: 34,478
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4928.42 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4251.19 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3875.35 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 3771.42 triggers a buy signal
 
@RNCResearch (Friday): Jill Biden drags Biden away from talking to reporters: “We gotta go!”
(Ladies & Gentlemen, the ‘leader of the free world’!) https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1537851764623409154
 
Biden under fire for ‘uncouth’ condolences after saying Jo-Ann Stores CFO ‘dropped dead’
Jo-Ann Stores CFO Matt Susz died unexpectedly this week
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/biden-under-fire-uncouth-condolences-joann-stores-cfo-dropped-dead
 
Florida woman who found Ashley Biden’s diary in ‘halfway house’ is under FBI investigation for SELLING the journal in which president’s daughter recalled ‘showers w/ my dad (probably not appropriate)’ and details of her drug and sex addiction
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10896941/Florida-woman-Ashley-Bidens-diary-investigation-selling-it.html
 
‘If that’s not child molestation, it is definitely close’: Tucker Carlson blasts Biden over daughter Ashley’s diary admission that taking showers with him as a girl may have contributed to her sex addiction after DailyMail.com revealed the extract (What if this were Ivanka and DJT?)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10929171/Tucker-Carlson-blasts-Joe-Biden-setting-FBI-woman-sold-Ashley-Bidens-diary.html
 
@ColumbiaBugle: Tucker Carlson’s Monologue w/ An Update on The Mystery of Ashley Biden’s Diary, The FBI’s Treatment of Project Veritas & The Claims Made In The Diary About Joe Biden.  “She wrote that she was musing over whether her father was sexually inappropriate w/ her.”
https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1537975643689717762
 
@TPostMillennial: Tucker Carlson and Harmeet Dhillon, @pnjaban, suggest Joe Biden used the FBI “as his personal secret police” to go after Project Veritas journalists who were in possession of Ashley Biden’s diaryhttps://t.co/LLU1npUUI2
 
Nine people linked to Colbert show arrested for illegal entry into Capitol complex building
https://t.co/chfMqzlNzp
 
Lawmakers want answers after Stephen Colbert employees arrested at Capitol for unlawful entry
Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill, said the Colbert group was helped into the buildings by staffers for Reps. Adam Schiff and Jake Auchincloss
    The group reportedly banged on doors of several Republican offices –  including that of Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, Jim Jordan of Ohio and Lauren Boebert of Colorado — as they allegedly filmed a skit for Colbert’s “Late Show” program that was to center around the January 6 hearings… Davis said they were later ejected by members of the press, who had them escorted out.
“It’s my understanding they were offered a way back into the House office buildings by a staffer for [Auchincloss],” he added, as they traveled to Longworth, where Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert’s office is located… https://www.foxnews.com/media/several-cbs-employees-colbert-arrested-capitol-for-unlawful-entry.amp
 
@TuckerCarlson: Stephen Colbert’s producers just committed insurrection at the U.S. Capitolhttps://t.co/8lHkIcCYld
 
@seanmdav: It’s time to seize Adam Schiff’s phone records to learn more about his role in the insurrection and the attempted attack on Lauren Boebert perpetrated by the coup plotters he illegally allowed into the building.  I’ve been told for the last 17 months that such behavior is seditiousWill these insurrectionists be held in solitary without a trial for the next two years?  Just kidding. We all know Biden’s DOJ won’t do a thing, because the rule of law is dead in this country.
 
Democrat congressman’s staffer caught defacing posters in Capitol complex, but DOJ won’t prosecute – Case of Rep. Jake Auchincloss’s chief of staff certain to renew debate about dual justice system after same U.S. attorney’s office that prosecuted J6 defendant declines the case…
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/democrat-congressmans-staffer-caught-defacing-posters-capitol-complex-doj-wont\
 
@nytimes: If the Justice Department brings a case against Donald Trump, prosecutors face the challenge of showing he knew — or should have known — that assertions about election fraud were false, or that his attempt to block congressional certification was illegal. (Zero chance that the DoJ wants DJT to exploit a legal forum to present evidence of vote fraud in the 2020 election!)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/18/us/politics/trump-jan-6-legal-defense.html
 
There is always vote fraud in US general elections.  It’s just a question of degree!
 
Texas woman pleads guilty on 26 counts of voter fraud over alleged vote harvesting operation
https://www.foxnews.com/us/texas-woman-pleads-guilty-26-counts-voter-fraud-alleged-vote-harvesting-operation
 
@CBSNews: A vehicle, which reportedly had an anti-Trump sticker on it, crashed into a New England for Trump store in Easton, Massachusetts, on Thursday. The driver was taken into a hospital while an employee at the store was uninjured, police said.  https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1537827443184115712
 
Ex-DNI @RichardGrenell: Should the government create a list of people with anti-Trump stickers on their car? Should we flag them as violent?
 
Dershowitz: I have never seen a congressional hearing like this since McCarthyism https://bit.ly/39xRzdc
 
ABC News/Ipsos poll: (9%) Americans say they are following the (Jan. 6) hearings very closely…
 
Concealed carry applications spike 600% in Philadelphia amid crime surge: ‘People are scared’
Women in Philadelphia outpaced men in receiving concealed carry permits in 2021.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/concealed-carry-applications-spike-philadelphia-crime-surge-people-scared
 
Don’t enforce laws, defund & demonize police, elect lenient prosecutors, appoint & elect permissive judges, legitimize drug use, and then grab for citizens’ guns is NOT a prudent electoral strategy.
 
GOP Sen. Cotton: Garland must resign over DOJ inaction on Jane’s Revenge, more than 50 attacks on pro-life groups – DOJ should investigate Jane’s Revenge as a ‘domestic terrorist organization’
    “Houses of worship and pro-life pregnancy centers are under attack. The Family Research Council has compiled a list of more than 50 attacks against churches, pro-life pregnancy centers, and other pro-life groups in the past few weeks,” Cotton wrote to Garland in a letter exclusively obtained by Fox News Digital. “A left-wing extremist group called ‘Jane’s Revenge’ has taken credit for many of these attacks, including firebombings and grotesque acts of vandalism.”…
    “What is the Department of Justice doing to protect Americans from these violent attacks?… If you are unwilling to protect Americans from these attacks, you should resign-although, in my opinion, you should resign in any case,” he added…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/cotton-garland-resign-doj-inaction-janes-revenge-50-attacks-pro-life-groups
 
Medical Experts Mock the Idea of Wearing Masks to Stop Viruses Prior to Covid-19 Pandemic
https://beckernews.com/watch-medical-experts-mock-the-idea-of-wearing-masks-to-stop-viruses-prior-to-covid-19-pandemic-45378/
 
Climate Warrior Barack Obama Installing Propane Tanks Totaling 2,500 Gallons on Martha’s Vineyard Property http://dlvr.it/SSNtmS
 
Uvalde Hires Private Law Firm to Argue It Doesn’t Have to Release School Shooting Public Records – Some of the records relating to the Robb Elementary School shooting could be “highly embarrassing,” involve “emotional/mental distress,” and are “not of legitimate concern to the public,” the lawyers argued…   https://www.vice.com/en/article/88q95p/uvalde-contracts-private-law-firm-to-argue-it-doesnt-have-to-release-school-shooting-public-records
 
KVUE’s (Austin, TX) @tplohetski: Multiple officers were inside Robb Elementary School with rifles and at least one ballistic shield at 11:52 a.m. the day of the shooting, new video and other evidence shows. They didn’t enter the classroom for another 58 minutes.
    Investigators believe this is significant because it indicates they had more than enough firepower and protection to enter the classroom before they did. Officers were growing impatient far sooner: “If there’s kids in there we need to go in there,” one said on body camera video.
 
NBC: The Navy has fired a dozen leaders but won’t explain why – A total of 13 commanding officers have been fired so far this year, including five in one week, the Navy said…Most recently, four Naval commanding officers and a top leader were ousted from June 8 to June 14…
    None of the leaders served the George Washington, where at least five crew members died by suicide in the last year, angering some sailors and advocates who work to reduce military suicides…
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/navy-fired-dozen-leaders-wont-explain-rcna33988
 
@megynkelly: Unusual activity at the Vatican as reports break that Pope Francis may be about to resign (Over health issues).
 
We should never forget the Constitution was not written to restrain citizens’ behavior.  It was written to restrain the government’s behavior.” – GOP Sen. Rand Paul.

Greg Hunter interviewing Catherine Austin Fitts 

It’s Not a Turndown, It’s a Takedown – Catherine Austin Fitts

By Greg Hunter On June 18, 2022 In Media71 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), Publisher of The Solari Report and former Assistant Secretary of Housing (Bush 41 Admin.), contends this is what the so-called “reset” looks like. High food and fuel prices along with crushing interest rates are no accident. CAF explains, “To me, this is part of the ‘going direct reset.’ There is an official narrative, and the official narrative is they’ve got to stop inflation. . . . Let’s look very simply at what happened. They voted on the direct reset. Then they injected $5 trillion into the economy that went to the insiders. Then they used Covid to shut down the economy run by the outsiders. Now, the outsiders want to open another business, and they are going to radically raise the cost of capital to the outsiders. What’s going to happen is that $5 trillion is going to buy more assets more cheaply. To me, this is part of centralizing the control of the economy. They are asserting very significant central control. This is not a turndown–this is a takedown.”

CAF’s view of the economy is simple and tangible. CAF says, “This is a world where people are trying to get into real assets that can generate a yield. Let me tell you what the problem is. Doing things that create value on assets requires the rule of law. We are watching a very significant financial coup d’état. We have talked about this for years. That financial coup d’état is turning into a coup, and you are seeing a fundamental breakdown of law and order in many places. It is related to people trying to pick up assets. We see cities where crime is off the charts, and speculators are out having a field day picking up assets with that $5 trillion.”

CAF says, “At some point, you have to realize we are in a war. We have an enemy. We have the power to win, but we are going to have to fight. If you look at our ancestors in the last 10,000 years, I dare say we have it in us. Let’s get out of fear and get into fighting mode. There are two roads. We can preserve, rebuild and protect the human civilization, or we can become slaves. If you look at what these guys are up to, death is not the worst thing that can happen to you. Do not fear death. Fear slavery in a transhuman society.”

CAF also talks about gold, silver, the CV19 injections and the fallout from them. She also talks about why it’s more important than ever to hold onto the 2nd Amendment and your guns.

There is much more in the 1 hour and 5 min. interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with the Publisher of The Solari Report, Catherine Austin Fitts. (6.18.22)

(https://usawatchdog.com/its-not-a-turndown-its-a-takedown-catherine-austin-fitts/

After the Interview:

There is much free information on Solari.com.

You can get way more cutting-edge analysis from Catherine Austin Fitts and “The Solari Report” by becoming a subscriber.

SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY

2 comments

  1. JUNE 21/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $2.00 TO $1936.00 is an error. It was $1836.00

    Like

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